AIR QUALITY ASSESSMENT FOR TASHKENT and THE ROADMAP FOR AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT IMPROVEMENT IN UZBEKISTAN June 2024 MINISTRY OF ECOLOGY, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information or liability concerning the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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Washington, DC: World Bank.” All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo by Uldis Laganovskis/Adobe Stock. ii BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan MINISTRY OF ECOLOGY, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan June 2024 Contents Acknowledgments vi Acronyms and Abbreviations vii Executive Summary viii PART 1: 1.1. Purpose of the Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent 1 Air Quality Assessment 1.2. Background to Air Pollution in Tashkent 3 for Tashkent 1.2.1 General context 3 1.2.2 Meteorology 4 1.2.3 Air quality data analysis 5 1.2.4 Health impacts of PM 2.5 ambient air pollution in Tashkent 7 1.3. Methodology for the PM 2.5 Assessment 9 1.3.1 Data limitations 10 1.4. PM 2.5 Emissions Sources Analysis: Results 11 1.5. PM 2.5 Modeling: Results and Source Contributions 13 1.5.1 PM2.5 dispersion 13 1.5.2 Comparison with air quality monitoring data 14 1.5.3 Source contributions to PM 2.5 concentrations 14 1.6. Summary and Suggested Next Steps 17 PART 2: 2.1. Introduction 20 Roadmap for Air 2.1.1 Objectives of the roadmap 20 Quality Management 2.1.2. Components of an effective AQM system 20 Improvement 2.1.3. Structure of the AQM roadmap 22 in Uzbekistan 2.2. Overview of Institutional Arrangements for AQM in Uzbekistan 23 2.3. Technical Components in the Suggested AQM Roadmap 26 2.3.1 AQ monitoring 26 2.3.2 AQ standards 27 2.3.3 Emissions inventory 28 2.3.4 Data management and analysis 30 2.4. Policies and Measures in the Suggested AQM Roadmap 31 2.4.1 AQM policies and planning 31 2.4.2 PaMs for key sectors 33 2.4.2.1. PaMs in the industrial sector 33 2.4.2.2. PaMs in the transport sector 35 2.4.2.3. PaMs in the heating sector 38 2.4.2.4. PaMs to reduce windblown dust 42 2.4.3 Stakeholder engagement and communication 43 2.5. Financing and Investments 44 2.5.1 AQM Financing 44 2.5.2 Investments and policy reforms 46 2.6. Suggested AQM Roadmap 48 2.7. Discussion: Short-Term Priority Actions 56 Conclusions and a Way Forward 60 Annexes Annex 1. Methodology and Data Used 62 Annex 2. References to Global Databases Used in the Study 72 Annex 3. CO2 Emissions in Tashkent 73 Figures Figure ES.1: Source contributions to annual average PM2.5 concentrations in Tashkent ix Figure ES.2: Suggested measures in the AQM roadmap to strengthen Uzbekistan AQM system components x Figure ES.3: Suggested short-term priority actions xii iv BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Figures Figure 1: Location and topography of Tashkent 3 Figure 2: Modeled hourly temperatures in Tashkent at 2 meters height (a.), wind speeds (b.), and mixing height (c.) by month, % of hours in a month 4 Figure 3: Wind directions in Tashkent: annual average (top), seasonal* (bottom) 5 Figure 4: Locations of air quality monitoring stations in Tashkent 5 Figure 5: PM 2.5 monitoring data for Tashkent: US Embassy monthly averages for 2018–2022 (top), US Embassy and Uzhydromet stations monthly averages for 2021–2022 (bottom) 6 Figure 6: PM 2.5 hourly averages for 2018–2022 (top) and PM 2.5 to PM 10 monthly ratios for 2021–2022 (bottom) 6 Figure 7: Annual mortality in Tashkent attributable to PM 2.5 pollution, by cause 8 Figure 8: Tashkent’s airshed defined for this study 9 Figure 9: Schematic illustration of the study’s main components 10 Figure 10: Monthly variations in PM 2.5 emissions in Tashkent 11 Figure 11: Annual average PM 2.5 emissions map, Tashkent, 2021 (tons/grid/year) 12 Figure 12: Tashkent urban area (in blue) and outside urban area 12 Figure 13: Share of PM 2.5 emissions in the urban area and outside urban area in Tashkent 12 Figure 14: Modeled annual average PM 2.5 dispersion in Tashkent in 2021 13 Figure 15: Modeled average PM 2.5 dispersion in Tashkent in 2021, by month 14 Figure 16: Modeled and monitored PM 2.5 concentrations in Tashkent 14 Figure 17: Modeled source contributions to average annual PM 2.5 concentrations in Tashkent (%) 15 Figure 18: Modeled source contributions to average monthly PM 2.5 concentrations in Tashkent (%) 15 Figure 19: Components of an effective AQM system 21 Figure 20: Main AQM responsibilities of MoH 23 Figure 21: Main AQM responsibilities of the MoEEPCC 24 Figure 22: Data flows in a standard emissions inventory system 29 Figure A1.1: Schematic illustration of the study’s methodology 62 Figure A1.2: Tashkent’s airshed 62 Figure A1.3: District heating network in Tashkent (top) and final consumption in the residential sector by fuel (bottom) 65 Figure A1.4: Road network in the Tashkent airshed 66 Figure A1.5: Locations of the industrial areas in the Tashkent airshed 66 Figure A1.6: Heavy industry in Tashkent 66 Figure A1.7: Brick kilns in Tashkent’s airshed 68 Figure A1.8: Quarries in Tashkent’s airshed 68 Figure A1.9: Hourly landings and take-offs at Islam Karimov Tashkent International Airport 69 Figure A1.10: 3D meteorological modeling with WRF model 70 Figure A1.11: Schematic diagram of the CAMx modeling system 71 Tables Table 1: PM2.5 emission estimates for Tashkent 11 Table 2: WHO updated AQG 2021 27 Table 3: EEA estimated RLs for other key pollutants 28 Table 4: Ranking of heating options to replace coal in single-family house (SFHs) in Bishkek 40 Table 5: Estimated possible fiscal impact of closing the incentive gap for cleaner residential heating in Astana and Almaty, (€, millions) 41 Table 6: Assessment criteria for air quality improvement activities in Uzbekistan’s green taxonomy 45 Table 7: Sample air quality improvement activities in the context of green taxonomy 45 Table 8: Suggested Roadmap for AQM Improvement in Uzbekistan 49 Table 9: Suggested short-term priority actions 56 Table A3.1: Estimated CO 2 emissions in Tashkent in 2021 73 Boxes Box 1: Industrial emissions regulation in the EU 35 Box 2: Costs of cleaner residential heating measures in Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic 40 Box 3: Costs of cleaner residential heating measures in Kazakhstan 41 Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS v Acknowledgments This report was produced by a core World Bank team led by Elena Strukova Golub (Senior Environmental Economist). The team included Inobat Allobergenova (Natural Resources Specialist), Kirtan Sahoo (Senior Climate Change Specialist), Fahad Alfahad (Environmental Analyst), Sarath Guttikunda (Consultant), and Vasil Borislavov Zlatev (Consultant). The team is grateful to Paola Agostini (Lead Natural Management Resources Specialist) and Wei-Jen Leow (Senior Environmental Finance Specialist) for their valuable comments. Nigara Abate (Senior Communications and Knowledge Management Specialist) prepared this report for publication. This assessment was produced under the overall guidance of Marco Mantovanelli (Country Manager for Uzbekistan), Sanjay Srivastava (Practice Manager for Environment, Natural Resources, and Blue Economy in the Europe and Central Asia Sustainable Development Department), and Sameh Naguib Wahba (Regional Director, Sustainable Development, Europe and Central Asia Region). The report was produced in collaboration with the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The team would like to extend its deep gratitude to Aziz Abdukhakimov, the Minister of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change of the Republic of Uzbekistan, and Jusipbek Kazbekov, the Deputy Minister, for their unwavering guidance and support. The invaluable contributions of Suna Park (Advisor to the Minister of Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate Change of the Republic of Uzbekistan and Head of the National Climate Center), Farrukh Sattarov (Head of the Environmental Policy Department), Bakhtiyor Pulatov (Director of The Research Institute of Environment and Nature Conservation Technologies), and Bakhrom Kholkhkujaev (Head of the Department of Atmospheric Air Protection) are highly acknowledged with gratitude. The team’s heartfelt thanks also go to the technical staff of the Research Institute of the Environment and Nature Conservation Technologies, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Agency of Hydrometeorological Service, the Hydrometeorological Research Institute, the Research Institute of Sanitation, Hygiene, and Occupational Diseases of the Ministry of Health, and the Center for the Study of Transport and Logistics Development Issues under the Ministry of Transport for their significant inputs and generous support. The team also expresses profound appreciation to the colleagues from the United Nations Environment Programme for their expert support and knowledge sharing. The team thanks World Bank peer reviewers: Wenyu Jia (Senior Urban Transport Specialist), Joseph Ese Akpokodje (Senior Environmental Specialist), and Helena Naber (Senior Environmental Specialist). The team is also grateful to Linh Van Nguyen (Senior Program Assistant) and Luiza Alimova (Program Assistant) for their project management support. This report was supported by PROGREEN, SDG Partnership Fund, and the Effective Governance for Economic Development in Central Asia Program (EGED), funded by the UK government. This material has been funded by UK International Development from the UK government; however, the views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK government’s official policies. vi BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Acronyms and Abbreviations A2W Air-to-Water IT Interim Target AEL Associated Emission Level LCOH Levelized Cost of Heating AQ Air Quality LEZ Low-Emission Zone AQG Air Quality Guidelines LRI Lower Respiratory Infection AQI Air Quality Index Maximum Allowable MAC AQM Air Quality Management Concentration AQP Air Quality Plan Ministry of Ecology, MoEEPCC Environmental Protection, BAT Best Available Technique and Climate Change Best Available Techniques BREF MoH Ministry of Health Reference Document Model for Ozone and Related Comprehensive Air Quality Model MOZART CAMx Chemical Tracers with Extensions Organisation for Economic CAPEX Capital Expenditure OECD Co-operation and Development Convention on Long-Range CLRTAP OPEX Operational Expenditure Transboundary Air Pollution PaMs Policies and Measures COP Coefficient of Performance PM Particulate Matter DNSH Do No Significant Harm RL Reference Level EEA European Environmental Agency SFH Single-Family House Environmental Impact EIA TPP Thermal Power Plant Assessment ELV Emission Limit Value TTC TashTeploCentral EPA Environmental Protection Agency TTE TashTeploEnergo ESCO Energy Service Company United Nations Economic UNECE Commission for Europe ETS Emissions Trading System United Nations Framework EU European Union UNFCCC Convention on Climate Change Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution GAINS Uzbekistan's Center of Interactions and Synergies Uzhydromet Hydrometeorological Services GBD Global Burden of Disease Statistics Agency of the Republic GDP Gross Domestic Product Uzstat of Uzbekistan GHG Greenhouse Gas VSL Value of Statistical Life GHS Global Human Settlements Whole Atmosphere Community WACCM GIS Geographic Information System Climate Model IEA International Energy Agency WHO World Health Organization IED Industrial Emissions Directive Weather Research and WRF IHD Ischemic Heart Disease Forecasting Signs and Units °C Celsius MW Megawatt °F Fahrenheit t ton g/GJ Grams per Gigajoule t/yr ton per year km 2 square kilometer µg/m 3 Microgram per cubic meter m/s meters per second µm Micron Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS vii Executive Summary Objective of the report This report summarizes the main results from a exceeds over six times the WHO’s annual average technical assessment of air quality in Tashkent guideline of 5 µg/m 3 . Existing information and (Part I) that informed the definition of sectoral studies on air quality in Tashkent are limited and policies and measures (PaMs) in the roadmap therefore, there was a need for a comprehensive for air quality management (AQM) improvement analysis of the air quality situation in Tashkent in Uzbekistan (AQM roadmap, Part 2). The report that could identify the main sources contributing is part of a series of underlying studies on air to air pollution in the city. quality in Central Asia that inform the dialogue The health impact assessment shows consi- with the government and pave the way for a derable health and economic impacts of comprehensive regional air quality assessment. PM 2.5 ambient air pollution in Tashkent . The The technical assessment for Tashkent aims to assessment of the health impacts of ambient assess the air quality in the city using a scientific PM2.5 air pollution in Tashkent conducted during approach to air quality analysis, with a main focus this study estimated that about 3,000 premature on particles with diameter less than 2.5 microns deaths could be attributable to PM2.5 pollution (µm) (PM 2.5). PM 2.5 has been identified as the annually in Tashkent, leading to losses of welfare pollutant of the gravest health concern according of population estimated at US$488.4 million per to the World Health Organization (WHO) and is year. This high-level health impact assessment globally considered to be a critical air pollutant of air pollution in Tashkent used data for 2019 for which concentration targets need to be put in from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) place. database, 1 which is a reference for assessments The technical assessment is the analytical of air pollution’s health impacts. The availability foundation for the identification of key sources of local health impact data would greatly improve of air pollution for which PaMs are suggested the health assessment’s granularity. in the AQM roadmap. In addition, the main The peak PM 2.5 concentrations in Tashkent objectives of the AQM roadmap are to provide occur in the winter months suggesting a major initial suggestions for reforms and support the contribution of residential and commercial development of a long-term and holistic AQM heating to PM 2.5 pollution . In addition to heating, vision in Uzbekistan that can serve as a platform for various other sources of PM 2.5 emissions and further discussion with the relevant government their contributions to ambient concentrations stakeholders. The AQM roadmap outlines and have been assessed in this study. With the help of elaborates on priority measures in the short a detailed emission inventory, developed as part and medium term to strengthen overall AQM in of the study, and pollution modeling, pollution Uzbekistan, suggests approaches to streamline maps have been produced presenting spatial stakeholder engagement and inter-ministerial and temporal distributions of both emissions and coordination, and identifies potential priority areas ambient concentrations. for investments in air quality improvement. The modeled PM 2.5 concentrations from this Air quality assessment for Tashkent study matched well with the concentrations Ambient PM 2.5 concentrations in Tashkent reported by the monitoring networks. To peak in the winter months and substantially validate the performance of the model, monthly exceed international air quality standards. The modeled concentrations were compared with the annual average PM 2.5 concentration in Tashkent actual PM 2.5 concentrations from the analyzed 1 https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/gbd. viii BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan air quality monitoring data. The modeled PM 2.5 to total PM 2.5 emissions could differ from concentrations showed a 93 percent match with the contribution of the same source to PM 2.5 the concentrations reported by the monitoring concentrations. The translation of emissions into networks, providing confidence in the accuracy of concentrations is affected by a number of factors the modeling results despite data limitations. The including the location of the emissions source, modeling identified source contributions to PM 2.5 characteristics of the source (height of emissions concentrations in Tashkent, providing valuable release, temperature and velocity of gases, and so information to support AQM policy formation on), meteorological conditions, and topography. (Figure ES.1). Therefore, to determine how emissions translate into concentrations, modeling needs to be Figure ES.1: Source contributions to annual conducted as it was done in this study. average PM 2.5 concentrations in Tashkent Residential and commercial heating and tran- sport are the anthropogenic sources that 7% Residential / 6% Commercial contribute the most to PM 2.5 emissions in Heating 29% 28% 6% Tashkent. The largest PM 2.5 emissions source Waste Burning 1% annually in Tashkent, albeit mostly concentrated Urban Dust 6% in the winter months, is the heating sector— PM2.5 Heavy Industry 6% responsible for nearly one-third of total annual 36% Light Industry 7% PM 2.5 emissions. The second largest PM 2.5 16% emissions source is transport, accounting for Boundary / Windblown Dust36% 25 percent of the total annual PM 2.5 emissions Transport 16% in Tashkent. Taken together, heavy and light industry is the third largest PM 2.5 emissions Source: World Bank. source in Tashkent, contributing 22 percent to Windblown PM 2.5 — PM 2.5 particles carried the total PM 2.5 annual emissions. Urban dust from by wind into Tashkent as a result of natural construction activities and resuspension of dust dust storms, from adjoining areas such as from roads account for 18 percent of the total agricultural and open fields, and from various annual PM 2.5 emissions in Tashkent. commercial activities outside the defined The results from the technical assessment laid airshed — has the highest contribution to annual the foundations for further air quality analyses average PM 2.5 concentrations. The contribution for Tashkent and can serve as an example for of windblown dust to PM 2.5 concentrations similar assessments in other Uzbek cities. The is the highest in the summer months when suggested next step is to assess the impact of concentrations are generally lower. Combustion a variety of emission reduction measures on of fuels for heating, especially coal, is the leading pollutant concentrations and greenhouse gas contributor to PM 2.5 concentrations in the winter (GHG) emissions and determine the ones that in Tashkent—accounting for nearly 45 percent of reduce PM 2.5 concentrations the most while also PM 2.5 concentrations in the city in some winter providing important benefits for climate change months, which is when peak PM 2.5 concentrations mitigation. A cost-effectiveness analysis of are reported. Therefore, measures related to emission reduction PaMs is needed to identify cleaner heating will have an impact on PM 2.5 which measures reduce air pollution the most at pollution during periods when the highest PM 2.5 the least cost, to prioritize the implementation of concentrations are reported. Transport is another various emission reduction options. In addition important contributor to PM 2.5 concentrations to the cost-effectiveness analysis, an evaluation in Tashkent and is the second most important of implementation modalities for the different anthropogenic source of PM 2.5 pollution. emission reduction measures could consider Because there is no linear correlation between responsible institutions for implementation, PM 2.5 emissions and PM 2.5 concentrations, enforcement, monitoring and reporting, therefore the share of an emission source coordination, and sources of financing for the Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS ix measures. Completing the steps outlined above a starting point for more detailed discussions will help define PaMs to be implemented as a on AQM with government stakeholders. All priority and will provide the tools for dynamic components of the AQM system in Uzbekistan calibration of PaMs to improve air quality, thus can be further developed and strengthened— fully reflecting the complex nature of AQM. AQM policies and legislation, technical infrastructure and capacities, planning and Roadmap for AQM improvement implementation of PaMs, and financing and in Uzbekistan investments. Even though implementing PaMs The AQM roadmap consists of measures to reduce pollutant emissions is at the core of addres-sing the main components of an the AQM system, the most optimal results of effective AQM system and elaborates PaMs in PaMs’ implementation are achieved only when all the key sectors responsible for air pollution. components of the AQM system are developed. The AQM roadmap provides an initial overview Figure ES.2 summarizes the suggested measures and suggestions for necessary improvements for AQM improvement in Uzbekistan for the main in the AQM system in Uzbekistan and serves as components of the AQM system. Figure ES.2: Suggested measures in the AQM roadmap to strengthen Uzbekistan AQM system components ለ Develop an AQ monitoring network modernization plan AQ monitoring ለ Install automatic AQ monitoring stations and establish/update AQ laboratories ለ Update national AQ standards in line with international best practices AQ standards ለ Develop PM2.5 national standards ለ Update and strengthen the emission inventory system to meet international Emission best practices inventory ለ Develop technical expertise for emission inventory management Data ለ Establish a comprehensive and user-friendly AQ data management system management ለ Establish capacities to perform AQ analyses such as modeling and AQ forecasting ለ Develop a national AQM strategy AQM policies ለ Strengthen regulations and local capacities for AQM planning ለ Establish an AQM coordination mechanism ለ Implement policies and measures for key sources: industry, transport, heating, and windblown dust Sectoral policies ለ Emissions control and cleaner industrial production ለ Pilot greening interventions ለ Strengthen AQ information dissemination to the public Communication ለ Improve communication on AQ matters across institutions ለ Establish financing mechanisms and coordinate the design of the financing Financing mechanisms with GHG emission reduction targets ለ Introduce AQ improvement activities in green taxonomy ለ Investing in emission-reduction measures in priority sectors Investment ለ Budgetary support to implement key policy reforms Source: World Bank. Improving air quality requires a balanced app- windblown dust, heating, transport, and industry roach as well as policy reforms and investments as the main sources of PM 2.5 pollution and in emission reduction measures across sectors. therefore, the AQM roadmap is focused on PaMs The technical assessment for Tashkent identified in those sectors. Implementing PaMs in each of x BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan the sectors requires careful planning, design, and hence, appropriate coordination is needed optimization of resources—technical, human, and to facilitate and control transport measures’ financial. Hence, prioritization of PaMs and the implementation . Measures to reduce transport respective policy reforms and investments to emissions include setting standards for vehicles support PaMs’ implementation are key tasks in and fuels, regulating vehicle imports, improving operationalizing the AQM roadmap. the attractiveness and emission profile of public transport, incentivizing nonmotorized Additional analyses are needed to assess means for urban mobility, and implementing the sources of windblown dust that affect air quality in Uzbekistan and pilot greening a low-emission zone (LEZ). LEZ is a common interventions could demonstrate the potential measure to reduce emissions in cities, but it of greening measures to reduce the transport is typically implemented after vehicle and fuel of windblown dust into cities. The occurrence of standards and vehicle measures are put in dust storms is well documented in Central Asia. place. In addition, implementing an LEZ restricts Moreover, agriculture plays a significant role in mobility options for parts of the population and Uzbekistan’s economy and can also be a source hence, adequate options for public transport of windblown dust. Studies generally agree that and/or nonmotorized urban mobility need to be greening measures can mitigate dust transport provided. Furthermore, the proper designation into cities; however, the design of greening of LEZs requires detailed analyses on traffic measures is highly location specific and depends flows, modal splits, air quality, and population on the types of measures, including species exposure impacts. selection and space availability for greening, as Improving air quality in Uzbekistan to meet well as availability of water resources to maintain international standards requires significant green areas. Moreover, it is likely that reducing investment and optimization of resources. An the amount of windblown dust transported to upcoming World Bank report 2 estimated that Uzbekistan might require a combination of local, around €690 million of up-front investments are national, and transnational measures. needed for the key emission sectors in Tashkent, There are four general options to reduce to bring the PM 2.5 annual average concentration in emissions from heating; however, additional the city below the WHO’s interim target (IT) 1 of 35 analyses are needed to design the most optimal µg/m 3 . Recognizing that the financing of air quality regulatory and funding framework for efficient improvement measures is unlikely to be secured implementation of those options in Uzbekistan. only through public funding, the AQM roadmap The technical options to reduce emissions from highlights potential sources of funding for the the heating sector are improving the quality of suggested PaMs. Funding sources include private fuels used, improving the efficiency of heating capital mobilization, public-private partnerships, appliances, implementing energy efficiency concessional loans, financing from development measures, and switching to cleaner heating partners and philanthropic organizations, and alternatives. Regulatory changes are required to innovative financing mechanisms such as support efficient implementation of some of the green credits, green bonds, and development measures. Financial assistance to households to of green taxonomy for air quality improvement afford up-front investments in energy efficiency projects. Detailed discussion on financing of air and cleaner heating is also needed, especially quality improvement PaMs is envisioned as a to support vulnerable households. The design next step after the suggested PaMs in the AQM of the regulatory framework and the financial roadmap have been discussed with government assistance programs require further analysis of stakeholders. the local context and implementation modalities. Immediate actions are needed to reduce Measures to reduce transport emissions are a exposure to harmful air pollution of the combination of national and local actions and population. Therefore, the AQM roadmap 2 World Bank. Forthcoming. Understanding Air Quality in Central Asia. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS xi highlights priority PaMs to be implemented in air quality. In addition, links with recently issued the next one to two years. The objective of the Presidential decrees that have provisions for suggested short-term priority actions is to ensure improved AQM have been considered in the an enabling framework for AQM which is key for selection of the short-term priority actions the sustainable and systematic improvement of described in Figure ES.3. Figure ES.3: Suggested short-term priority actions AQM legislation, policies, and planning ለ Update national air quality standards to include standards for PM 2.5 . ለ Develop a national AQM strategy. ለ Reform legislation on pollution fees and taxes (compensation payments). ለ Establish an AQM coordination mechanism. PaMs in the industrial sector ለ Strengthen industrial emissions regulations, including the industrial permitting process. ለ Mandate the installation, operation, and maintenance of highly efficient emissions control and auto- matic emission reporting equipment at key industrial enterprises. PaMs in the transport sector ለ Establish a work plan and coordinate with relevant institutions to advance legislation on reducing transport emissions. PaMs in the heating sector ለ Identify priority interventions and policies to address air pollution from heating informed by a study on fuels and appliances used for residential and commercial heating in a targeted area—for example, Tashkent. PaMs to reduce windblown dust ለ Pilot greening interventions in a city (for example, Tashkent) and analyze the impact on air quality. Stakeholder Engagement and Communication ለ Strengthen air quality information communication to the general public. Source: World Bank. It is important that sectoral PaMs and invest- priority measures is agreed upon, assessment ments run parallel to the strengthening of the of implementation modalities, quantification of overall AQM system in the country. Strengt- costs, and identification of sources of financing hening the components of the AQM system can could follow. These processes might eliminate inform where investments are needed and can some measures from the initial list due to provide the necessary information for evaluating currently unsurmountable implementation the impact, effectiveness, and the need for barriers or prohibitively high costs. However, it calibration of those investments. The natural is important that clear timelines and institutions next step is discussing the measures suggested responsible for the implementation of the final in the AQM roadmap within the Ministry of list of measures are established so that the Ecology, Environmental Protection, and Climate implementation of PaMs brings the expected Change (MoEEPCC) and in government to agree benefits of improved air quality and reduced on priority measures to invest in. Once a list of GHGs. xii BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan PART 1: Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 1 1.1. Purpose of the Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent According to the latest World Bank report this study undertakes follows a scientific approach on the global health cost of particles with to air quality analysis and provides robust results diameter less than 2.5 microns (µm) (PM 2.5) air to support the evidence on the air quality situation pollution, 3 Uzbekistan has the second highest in Tashkent. annual average PM 2.5 concentration among the This study has the following main objectives: countries in Central Asia. The report estimates that the annual average PM 2.5 concentration in ለ To collect and consolidate all available data Uzbekistan in 2019 was 34.8 micrograms per and information—both locally sourced data cubic meter (µg/m 3 )—nearly seven times over and data from global databases—about the key the World Health Organization (WHO) annual emissions sources of PM 2.5 in Tashkent average PM 2.5 guideline 4 of 5 µg/m 3 . In addition, ለ To create the first spatially and temporally the health cost of PM2.5 exposure in Uzbekistan dynamic PM 2.5 emissions map of Tashkent was estimated at 7.3 percent of gross domestic ለ To conduct the first state-of-art air pollution product (GDP)—the highest among the Central modeling over the entire Tashkent airshed to Asian countries 5 . identify source contributions to ambient PM 2.5 The technical analysis conducted in this study concentrations and suggest priority sectors focuses on Uzbekistan’s largest and most where emission reduction measures could be populous city — Tashkent. Existing information implemented and studies on air quality in Uzbekistan in general ለ To conduct an initial assessment of the and in Tashkent in particular before the current health impact from ambient PM 2.5 pollution in analysis were limited. Some studies focused on Tashkent. industrial pollution, and others on general air The study focuses on PM 2.5 as the pollutant of quality assessment. In addition, the two automatic the gravest health concern according to the air quality monitoring stations with continuous WHO. 6 In addition, the study focuses on ambient monitoring in Tashkent became operational only PM 2.5 concentrations and does not consider in March 2021, which means that time series from indoor air pollution. PM 2.5 is associated with continuous monitoring of air pollutants was not causing cardiovascular  (ischemic heart disease), available until then. cerebrovascular  (stroke),  and respiratory There was a need for a comprehensive analysis impacts due to the ability of particles to not of the air quality situation in Tashkent. This only penetrate deep into  the  lung s but also analysis utilized all available data and resources enter  the bloodstream.  Moreover, morbidity  and to produce a local emissions inventory to be used mortality from cardiovascular and respiratory as input to a state-of-the-art pollutant transport diseases are linked to both long-term and short- modeling. The comprehensive assessment that term exposure to PM 2.5 . Furthermore, exposure 3 World Bank. 2022. The Global Health Cost of PM 2.5 Air Pollution: A Case for Action Beyond 2021. International Development in Focus. Washington, DC: World Bank. 4 WHO (World Health Organization).  2021.  WHO Global Air Quality Guidelines: Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 and PM10), Ozone, Nitrogen Dioxide, Sulfur Dioxide and Carbon Monoxide. WHO. 5 The health cost of PM 2.5 exposure in other Central Asia countries ranges from 5.1 percent of GDP in the Kyrgyz Republic to 6.7 percent of GDP in Kazakhstan. 6 WHO. Type of pollutants. https://www.who.int/teams/environment-climate-change-and-health/air-quality-and-health/health- impacts/types-of-pollutants. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 1 to high PM 2.5 levels has been linked to a range transport modeling to assess the dispersion of of health outcomes such as adverse obstetric PM 2.5 pollution over Tashkent, identify pollution and postnatal metabolic health outcomes,7 lung hotspots, and determine source contributions cancer, 8 increased resistance to antibiotics, 9 and to PM 2.5 concentrations. All these steps can dementia. 10 support further evaluation of emission reduction measures and inform decisions in setting policy In addition, PM 2.5 is globally accepted as a priorities to improve air quality in Tashkent. In criteria air pollutant as there is a wide scientific addition, the air quality modeling conducted in agreement about its impact on health and the study can serve as a baseline for assessing welfare. PM 2.5 has important relations with other the effectiveness of future emissions reductions criteria air pollutants such as sulfur dioxide (SO2 ) measures. and nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) since photochemical reactions in the atmosphere lead to the secondary The structure of Part I is as follows: It begins by formation of PM 2.5 by SO2 and NO2 precursors. providing context for the air pollution situation Hence, policies and measures (PaMs) to reduce in Tashkent (Chapter 1.2). The report continues the concentrations on PM 2.5 have important by describing the methodology used for the implications for the concentration reductions of technical assessment in this study (Chapter other criteria air pollutants. 1.3) and summarizes the results from the PM 2.5 emissions sources’ analysis (Chapter I.4) and Fulfilling this study’s objectives strengthens from the conducted modeling identifying source the evidence base regarding sources of air contributions to PM 2.5 pollution in Tashkent pollution in Tashkent. The study follows a (Chapter 1.5). Chapter 1.6 recaps the study’s main common approach to analyzing urban air quality. findings and concludes with suggestions for next The analysis focuses on a key air pollutant—in steps and how the study’s results can be used this case PM 2.5 —and examines the available air and further developed. Annex 1 and Annex 2 are quality monitoring data. The study then compiles complementary to Chapter 1.3 and provide more an emission inventory for the key PM 2.5 emission details on the methodology and data used in the sources. The emission inventory, coupled with technical assessment. meteorological data, is then used in chemical 7 Kaur, K., C. Lesseur, M. Deyssenroth, I. Kloog, J. Schwartz, C. Marsit, J. Chen. 2022. “PM 2.5 Exposure during Pregnancy Is Associated with Altered Placental Expression of Lipid Metabolic Genes in a US Birth Cohort.” Environmental Research 211. 8 Ibid. 9 Zhou, Z., Shuai, X., Lin, Z., Yu, X., Ba, X., Holmes, M.A., Xiao, Y., Gu, B. and Chen, H. 2023. “Association between Particulate Matter (PM) 2.5 Air Pollution and Clinical Antibiotic Resistance: A Global Analysis.” The Lancet Planetary Health 7: 649–659. 10 Wilker, E.H., Osman, M. and Weisskopf, M.G. 2023. “Ambient Air Pollution and Clinical Dementia: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis. The BMJ. 2 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan 1.2. Background to Air Pollution in Tashkent This chapter provides context for PM 2 .5 1.2.4 summarizes the results from the conducted pollution in Tashkent and its impact on health ambient air pollution health impact assessment and includes four subsections. Section 1.2.1 for Tashkent. describes the general characteristics of Tashkent such as location, population, and 1.2.1 General context topography. Section 1.2.2 summarizes the Tashkent is the capital and largest city in performed analysis of key meteorological Uzbekistan with a population of nearly 3 million parameters that influence the dispersion of air in 2022. 11 Tashkent’s urban area spans over 330 pollutants in Tashkent. Section 1.2.3 provides a km 2 at an average altitude of 455 m. The city is general overview of the air quality monitoring situated in the well-watered and fertile plains of infrastructure in Tashkent and the conclusions the Chirchiq river and its tributaries and is just 13 of the PM 2.5 monitoring data analysis. Section km from the border with Kazakhstan (Figure 1). 11 Tashkent City Department of Statistics. https://toshstat.uz/uz/. Figure 1: Location and topography of Tashkent Source: Google Maps. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 3 1.2.2 Meteorology Figure 2: Modeled hourly temperatures in Tashkent at 2 meters height (a.), Meteorological parameters are a key input in wind speeds (b.), and mixing height (c.) air dispersion modeling. Tashkent’s climate is by month, % of hours in a month characterized by cold winters and long, hot, and A) 2 m temperature (C) - % hours in a month dry summers. Average daily temperature lows 100% 90% in the winter months are about −2°C, whereas 80% average daily temperature highs in the summer 70% reach 36°C. In addition, during the coldest winter 60% 50% months of January and February, temperatures 40% are below 0°C for over 20 percent of the hours in 30% a month and are generally below 10°C throughout 20% 10% the winter months which emphasizes the strong 0% demand for heating in the winter (see Figure 2a). JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC <0 0-5 5-10 10-20 20-30 >30 Wind speeds in Tashkent are low in the winter months—under 2 m/s for over 50 percent of B) Wind speed (m/s) - % hours in a month 100% the time in winter. The highest wind speeds are 90% recorded in the summer months of June, July, 80% 70% and August (see Figure 2b). Moreover, there are 60% minimal diurnal differences in wind speeds in the 50% 40% winter months. These factors are unfavorable for 30% pollutants’ dispersion in the winter and assist the 20% 10% trapping of air pollution over the city. 0% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Another key parameter for the dispersion of <2 2-4 4-6 6-8 >8 air pollutants is the mixing height. The mixing C) Mixing height (m) - % hours in a month height indicates the height above ground of 100% 90% the vertical mixing of air, including suspended 80% particles. A parcel of air will rise up in the 70% atmosphere as long as it is warmer than the 60% 50% ambient temperature. However, once the parcel 40% of air becomes colder than the temperature 30% 20% of the surrounding ambient environment, its 10% rise will slow down and eventually stop. It is at 0% JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC this point that the parcel of air has reached the <100 100-500 500-1K 1K-2K >2000 maximum mixing height beyond which there is Source: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. no more possibility to disperse further up in the atmosphere. The dominant wind directions in Tashkent on an annual average are winds coming from the As shown in Figure 2c, the mixing height northwest, followed by winds coming from the in Tashkent is the lowest in the month of northeast (see Figure 3). Winds coming from the December — over 30 percent of the hours northwest have the highest wind speeds (the dark in December have a mixing height under blue areas in Figure 3). Winds coming from the 100 m. Overall, winter and some fall months northwest are the dominant winds in the spring, are characterized by lower mixing heights summer, and fall, whereas winds from northeast and small diurnal differences in the mixing prevail in the winter months (see Figure 3, bottom). height than spring and summer months when Wind speeds are the lowest in the winter months the mixing height is much higher. Low mixing and the highest in the summer. Therefore, while height, combined with low wind speeds in the low wind speeds trap pollution in the city during winter, especially in December, are conducive to winter, higher wind speeds in the summer have trapping pollution over Tashkent. the potential to bring particles into Tashkent, especially from areas to the west of the city. 4 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Figure 3: Wind directions in Tashkent: annual average (left), seasonal* (right) Source: WRF model. Note: *D-J-F are December, January, and February M-A-M are March, April, and May J-J-A are June, July, and August S-O-N are September, October, and November. Figure 4: Locations of air quality monitoring 1.2.3 Air quality data analysis stations in Tashkent This study analyzed all available PM 2 .5 monitoring data for Tashkent from automatic reference grade stations with continuous monitoring. Three automatic air quality stations in Tashkent meet international monitoring standards (Figure 4). Two are managed by Uzbekistan’s Center of Hydrometeorological Services (Uzhydromet) and the other by the US Embassy in Tashkent using Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reference equipment and methods. The Uzhydromet stations started monitoring PM 2.5 in March 2021, whereas the US Embassy station began in May 2018. The air quality station at the US Embassy in Tashkent provides the longest time series of PM 2.5 monitoring data using reference grade methods. Figure 5 shows the monthly PM 2.5 average from the US Embassy station for 2018–2022 and the data from all three automatic stations (US Embassy and average of the two Uzhydromet stations) in 2021 and Source: Google Maps. Note: Green pins represent the locations of the two automatic, 2022. Data from Uzhydromet stations are reference grade Uzhydromet stations, and the blue pin is the missing for January and February 2021 as the automatic reference grade station of the US Embassy. The yellow dots are the 13 manual air quality stations in Tashkent operated stations became operational in March 2021. US by Uzhydromet. The manual stations, however, do not perform Embassy PM 2.5 data are missing for August and continuous monitoring and do not monitor PM 2.5 and thus, data from the manual stations were not used in this study. September 2022. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 5 Figure 5: PM 2.5 monitoring data for Tashkent: US Embassy monthly averages for 2018–2022 (top), US Embassy and Uzhydromet stations monthly averages for 2021–2022 (bottom) 75 PM2.5 Monthly Averages (in ug/m3) 50 25 0 JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 150 125 PM2.5 Monthly Averages (in ug/m3) 100 75 50 25 0 JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER 2018-USE 2022-USE 2021-HYD 2022-HYD Source: US Embassy, Uzhydromet. As shown in Figure 5, the peak PM 2 .5 monthly in Tashkent could exceed by over seven times average concentrations occur in the winter the WHO guideline value for the protection of months, namely in November, December, and human health of 5 µg/m 3 and are higher than January. Annual average PM 2.5 concentrations even the least strict WHO PM 2.5 interim target in the years with full data coverage range (IT)—IT1 of 35 µg/m 3 . Additional analysis of the from 31.4 µg/m 3 (Uzhydromet station in 2022) monitoring data, presented in Figure 6, provides to 39.3 µg/m 3 (US Embassy station in 2021). further details about air pollution patterns and Therefore, average annual PM 2.5 concentrations potential sources. Figure 6: PM 2.5 hourly averages for 2018–2022 (top) and PM 2.5 to PM 10 monthly ratios for 2021–2022 (bottom) 60 PM2.5 Hourly Averages (in ug/m3) 50 40 30 20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 0.80 PM2.5 to PM10 Ratio Monthly Averages 0.60 0.40 0.20 0 JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER 2021 2022 Source: US Embassy, Uzhydromet. 6 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan PM 2.5 hourly average data from the US Embassy’s the world, interim targets (ITs) for reaching the station show that peak PM 2.5 concentrations guideline were established. The first WHO IT (IT1) occur at night (after 8 p.m.) and in the morning is annual average PM 2.5 concentration of 35 µg/ (8–10 a.m.). Such dynamics of the hourly PM 2.5 m 3 . 12 Since the modeling conducted for this study trends might point to residential heating in developed spatial and temporal concentration particular having an important impact on PM 2.5 maps for Tashkent and the modeling utilized concentrations in Tashkent as the hourly peaks a gridded population geographic information correlate with times when people are at home system (GIS) layer, it was possible to analyze in (at night) or when people have fired their stoves how many urban grids with a size of 1 km2 the in the morning. The nighttime hourly peaks also concentrations were lower than the WHO’s IT1 13 correlate with the times of the day with lower and how many people live in those grids. mixing heights in Tashkent which is a condition The analysis showed that annual average PM 2.5 conducive to trapping pollution. Morning traffic concentrations were below the WHO’s IT1 in might also affect the observed peak in PM 2.5 39 percent of the urban grids in Tashkent. concentrations over 8–10 a.m. However, only 17 percent of the city’s population Another evidence for the impact of heating lives in those grids and therefore, 83 percent of on PM 2.5 concentrations is the dynamics Tashkent’s population lives in the 1 km 2 grids with in the monthly ratios of PM 2.5 to PM10. As the highest levels of air pollution that cause the demonstrated in Figure 6, during the winter largest health impacts. months, PM 2.5 is the dominant fraction of The following data and information were used particulate matter (PM) pollution in Tashkent. to estimate the impact of ambient PM 2.5 Combustion of solid fuels is associated with pollution in Tashkent on health : higher emissions of finer particles, including PM 2.5 . On the other hand, the share of PM 2.5 in ለ Population data , including by age groups, PM 10 reduces to about 20 percent, indicating were taken from the Statistics Agency of the the dominance of larger particles (for example, Republic of Uzbekistan (Uzstat). 14 windblown dust and resuspended dust from ለ Economic data . GDP data for Uzbekistan roads) in the warmer months. were obtained from the World Bank’s global database, 15 whereas value of statistical life 1.2.4 Health impacts of PM2.5 ambient (VSL) estimates were obtained from the air pollution in Tashkent Organization for Economic Co-operation and The WHO’s annual average PM 2.5 guideline is 5 Development (OECD). 16 µg/m 3 , whereas the annual population-weighted ለ Population-weighted PM 2.5 annual average average PM 2.5 concentration estimated for concentration. The conducted modeling Tashkent is 38.8 µg/m 3 — over seven times allowed for the estimation of the population- above the WHO guideline. The modeling results weighted PM 2.5 annual average concentration presented in Chapter 1.5 show that the WHO for Tashkent that equaled 38.8 µg/m 3. guideline is not achieved in any of 1 x 1 km grids ለ Relative health risks of diseases associated that the Tashkent airshed was divided into. with PM 2.5 ambient pollution were obtained Recognizing that the WHO guideline is extre- from the global burden of disease (GBD) mely difficult to achieve in many places around database. 17 12 The WHO does not provide a timeline for reaching the IT as it is up to national legislation to suggest such a timeline. EU legislation, for instance, states that noncompliance with air quality standards should be kept as short as possible. The main objective of air quality plans in the EU is then to assess what a reasonable period for reaching compliance is. 13 The modeling showed that the WHO’s IT2 guideline value was not met in any of the grids in Tashkent’s airshed. 14 https://stat.uz/en/official-statistics/demography. 15 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UZ. 16 https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/mortality-risk-valuation-in-environment-health-and-transport-policies/recommended- value-of-a-statistical-life-numbers-for-policy-analysis_9789264130807-9-en#page2. 17 https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2019-relative-risks. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 7 The attributable mortality for Tashkent caused In addition to the impacts of PM 2.5 ambient by an annual average population-weighted air pollution on annual mortality in Tashkent, PM 2.5 concentration of 38.8 µg/m 3 is 3,042 this study estimated the economic impact premature deaths per year. The highest number of both mortality and morbidity attributable of premature deaths attributed to PM 2.5 ambient to PM 2.5 pollution in the city. Using the OECD air pollution is caused by stroke, followed recommended VSL figures and assuming that the by ischemic heart disease (IHD) and lower morbidity costs are 10 percent of mortality costs, respiratory infections (LRIs). the average annual economic costs of PM 2.5 ambient air pollution in Tashkent are estimated Figure 7: Annual mortality in Tashkent at US$ 488.4 million, which is equivalent to 0.7 attributable to PM 2.5 pollution, by cause percent of Uzbekistan’s GDP. This high-level health impact assessment of 6% 2% air pollution in Tashkent was conducted using a mix of local data and data on air pollution’s 23% Deaths IHD health impact from the GBD. Availability of Deaths stroke detailed epidemiological local data will greatly Deaths COPD 33% 8% improve the health impact assessment, but in Deaths lung cancer the absence of such, best efforts were made Deaths LRI to use verified data from international studies Deaths Diabetes 2 28% and databases. Therefore, the results presented here should be interpreted considering that Tashkent/Uzbekistan-specific health data and information were not available for this health Source: Original elaboration for this publication based on Global impact assessment. Burden of Disease (2019), Uzstat, and World Bank data. 8 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan 1.3. Methodology for the PM2.5 Assessment This study compiled all available data and in- The Comprehensive Air Quality Model with ex- formation for the main PM 2 .5 emissions sourc- tensions (CAMx) modeling system was used to es in the Tashkent airshed and mapped those simulate the dispersion of PM 2.5 pollution over sources at a spatial resolution of approximate- the airshed and to identify the contributions ly 1 by 1 km and a temporal resolution of 1 hour. of key emissions sources to PM 2.5 concentra- The mapped area, that is, the defined airshed in tions. 18 This dynamic emissions map, coupled Figure 8, covered a total of about 2,400 km 2 and with 3D meteorological gridded data from the included the whole urban area of Tashkent and WRF model, was used in chemical transport the surrounding areas where emissions sources modeling. that might affect air quality in the city are lo- Emissions were calculated for the following cated. High-resolution layers with key data (for key emission sources: heating, road transport, example, on population, land use, and built-up industry, open waste burning, brick kilns, area) allowed the estimation of emissions for quarries, and the airport. In addition, the each grid (approximately 1 km 2 ) in the airshed, study analyzed the contributions to PM 2.5 thus enabling the creation of the first spatially concentrations in Tashkent of urban sources and temporally dynamic emissions map for the of dust (construction activities and road dust Tashkent airshed. resuspension) and sources from areas outside the Tashkent airshed (referred to as windblown Figure 8: Tashkent’s airshed defined for this study dust). A detailed description of the emission estimations by sources is provided in Annex 1. To achieve high-resolution data and allow for dynamic spatial and temporal emission esti- mates and pollution modeling, this study used a combination of locally obtained data, data from global databases, and published litera- ture. Moreover, satellite data and data from glob- ally recognized models were used to strengthen the foundations for the modeling conducted in this study. The complete methodology and data resources used in the emissions’ analysis and in the chemical transport modeling are described in Source: World Bank and OpenStreetMap. Annex 1 and Annex 2 and the key components of Note: Solid lines represent primary roads, dashed line— the methodology are illustrated in Figure 9. international border. 18 As mentioned previously, emissions (the substances emitted directly from different sources) do not translate directly into concentrations (the pollution the population is exposed to). Therefore, a source with high emissions might not affect concentrations as much as a source that has lower emissions but more unfavorable dispersion characteristics (for example, low height of emissions’ release). Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 9 Figure 9: Schematic illustration of the study’s main components Defining airshed boundaries Emissions functions Emission estimates (spatial and temporal) Sectoral activity data, CAMx High-res gridded GIS data layers data layers CAMx model Modeled concentrations (hourly, monthly, annual) WRF model High-res 3D gridded data processing meteo data Comparison between Tool for modeled and monitored evidence-based concentrations decision-making AQ data processing Aggregated hourly, monthly, Model and analysis annual concentrations calibration and validation Analysis of source contributions to air pollution Source: World Bank. 1.3.1 Data limitations Despite best efforts to collect data from local ለ Lack of longer time series of PM 2.5 monitoring and global sources, some important data by Uzhydromet in Tashkent limitations had to be overcome in this study: ለ Lack of local data on the health impact of air ለ Lack of local data for the amount and types of pollution. fuels/energy sources used for residential and To address those challenges, data from inter- commercial heating national sources and global databases such as ለ Lack of local data on the types of residential International Energy Agency (IEA) data and, and commercial heating appliances used for when needed, expert judgment were used. In solid fuel (coal and biomass) combustion the case of PM 2.5 monitoring, data from the US Embassy monitoring station were also utilized in ለ Lack of traffic-related information such as addition to data from Uzhydromet stations. With traffic counts and shares of light-duty to regard to the health assessment of air pollution heavy-duty vehicles in Tashkent, health impacts from the global ለ Lack of detailed data on fuel use and available reference database of the GBD were used, taking abatement technologies at different industries into account Tashkent and Uzbekistan-specific ለ Lack of local emission factors, for instance, for parameters such as the age structure of the residential heating population and GDP. 10 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan 1.4. PM2.5 Emissions Sources Analysis: Results The largest PM 2.5 anthropogenic emission sions in Tashkent. Taken together, heavy and source in Tashkent, albeit mostly concentrated light industry is the third largest PM 2.5 emissions in the winter months, is the heating sector— sources in Tashkent, contributing 22 percent to responsible for nearly one-third of the total the total PM 2.5 annual emissions. Urban dust from annual PM 2.5 emissions. The second largest construction activities and resuspension of dust PM 2.5 emissions source is transport, accounting from roads account for 18 percent of the total for 25 percent of the total annual PM 2.5 emis- annual PM 2.5 emissions in Tashkent (see Table 1). Table 1: PM 2.5 emission estimates for Tashkent Emissions PM 2.5 emissions, Description source tons/year Heating Includes emissions from residential and commercial heating and cooking 3,800 Transport Includes all road transport and emissions from the airport 3,050 Includes emissions from the thermal power plant (TPP), other industries, quarries, Industries 2,700 brick kilns, and diesel generators at commercial buildings Urban dust Includes emissions from construction activities and resuspended dust from roads 2,150 Open waste Includes emissions from open waste burning around the airshed 350 burning Total 12,050 Source: World Bank. Note: Windblown dust is a source of direct PM 2.5 concentrations and therefore, it is not included as an emissions source. In addition, PM 2.5 particles in windblown dust occur due to both natural events and anthropogenic activities. Windblown dust is included in the modeling as PM 2.5 loads for each airshed’s grid estimated from the global Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART)/ Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Emissions levels throughout the year are not are fairly constant throughout the year, while constant — for instance, heating emissions urban dust emissions are higher in the summer occur only in winter months. Therefore, it is months than in the winter months because of important to analyze the temporal distribution of increased construction activity and higher dust emissions sources. Figure 10 shows that heating resuspension from roads. Industrial emissions emissions are dominant in the winter months and have a relatively stable share in total emissions in can account for about 60 percent of monthly the different months of the year. PM 2.5 emissions in the winter. Transport emissions Figure 10: Monthly variations in PM 2.5 emissions in Tashkent 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Transport Dust Cook Heat Wasteburn Industry Source: World Bank. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 11 In addition to temporally distributing PM 2.5 heating network outside of the urban area, emissions in Tashkent, this study mapped emis- which means that households use individual sions from the different emissions sources at heating sources. In addition, information an approximately 1 km2 resolution. The baseline provided by MoEEPCC suggested that numerous year for the emissions mapping was 2021. Figure greenhouses located around Tashkent’s urban 11 shows the annual average spatial distribution area use coal for heating. Therefore, the use of of PM 2.5 emissions in Tashkent for 2021. solid fuels (coal, biomass) for residential and commercial heating is assumed to be higher in Figure 11: Annual average PM 2.5 emissions map, the areas outside the urban center, which fits Tashkent, 2021 (tons/grid/year) with observations on the ground. Figure 12: Tashkent urban area (in blue) and outside urban area 2021 Main Roads 0 to 1 20 to 100 Border Line 1 to 2 100 to 200 Water Bodies 2 to 10 200 to 800 10 to 20 Source: Open Street Maps. Source: World Bank. Figure 13: Share of PM 2.5 emissions in the urban Figure 11 shows that there are scattered area and outside urban area in Tashkent emissions hotspots in Tashkent’s airshed — 100% namely, in the city’s northeast, close to the second ring road, and in the highly industrial 80% Yangikhayot district in the south. Further analysis of PM 2.5 emissions’ spatial distribution 60% in Tashkent’s airshed divided the airshed into an urban area (the blue area on Figure 12) and 40% an outside urban area. Figure 13 shows that 20% most emissions from the heating sector occur outside of the Tashkent urban area while most 0% Transport Heating Industry of the transport and industrial PM 2.5 emissions Outside urban area share of PM2.5 emissions occur within Tashkent’s urban area. The majority Urban area share of PM2.5 emissions of residential emissions occur outside of the Tashkent urban area because there is no district Source: World Bank. 12 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan 1.5. PM2.5 Modeling: Results and Source Contributions There is no linear correlation between PM 2.5 1.5.1 PM 2.5 dispersion emissions and PM 2.5 concentrations. The The spatially and temporally dynamic emis- translation of emissions into concentrations is sions map was coupled with spatially and affected by a number of factors including the temporally dynamic meteorological data layer location of the emissions source, characteristics to allow for high-resolution modeling at an of the source (height of emissions release, hourly scale. The CAMx, which incorporates temperature and velocity of gases, and so on), meteorological inputs from the WRF model, was meteorological conditions, and topography. used in this study. The approach to modeling is Therefore, to determine how emissions translate described in detail in Annex 1. into concentrations, modeling needs to be conducted taking all these considerations into Figure 14 illustrates the annual average PM 2.5 account. pollution dispersion across Tashkent’s airshed for 2021, whereas Figure 15 shows the average Moreover, modeling can provide useful monthly PM 2.5 pollution dispersion in the city. information about spatial distribution of air Average PM 2.5 concentrations were modeled pollution and hence about population exposure and are available for each grid of the airshed to pollution. This chapter describes the results (approximately 1 km2 resolution). The model from the chemical transport modeling using the considers the impact on PM 2.5 concentrations CAMx system, coupled with WRF meteorological of both direct PM 2.5 emissions and secondary data, conducted in this study. formation of PM 2.5 in the atmosphere through chemical reactions of SO2 and NOx. Figure 14: Modeled annual average PM 2.5 dispersion in Tashkent in 2021 The modeled PM 2 .5 pollution dispersion in Tashkent’s airshed demonstrates that PM 2 .5 concentrations peak in the winter months, in line with what has been reported by air quality monitoring networks. In addition, PM 2.5 concentrations in the city, especially during winter, are well above WHO guidelines. Moreover, modeling of pollution dispersion is useful for identifying pollution hotspots within an urban area. The modeling results for Tashkent shown in Figure 15 illustrate that PM 2.5 concentrations are generally higher in the city’s 2021 Main Roads eastern part and especially in the northeast 0 to 5 50 to 75 Border Line 5 to 20 75 to 100 close to the second ring road. Water Bodies 20 to 30 100 to 200 Hydromet stn 39 to 50 US Embassy stn Source: World Bank. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 13 Figure 15: Modeled average PM 2.5 dispersion in Tashkent in 2021, by month Source: World Bank. Figure 16: Modeled and monitored PM 2.5 1.5.2 Comparison with air quality concentrations in Tashkent monitoring data 100 A general practice in modeling is to compare modeled concentrations of pollutants with the R 2 =0.93 actual concentrations’ measurements from air 80 quality monitoring. The modeling results show All urban grids average (mg/m3) DEC a good fit (R 2 = 0.93, that is, 93 percent fit) with JAN the collected monitoring data which suggest that 60 the simulation conducted in this study closely FEB approximates the observed PM 2.5 levels and NOV dynamics in Tashkent in 2021 (Figure 16). 40 OCT 1.5.3 Source contributions to SEP MAR PM 2.5 concentrations 20 JUN APR AUG The modeling conducted in this study allowed MAY the identification of source contributions to JUL 0 PM 2.5 concentrations on an annual (Figure 17) 0 20 40 60 80 100 and a monthly basis (Figure 18). As discussed All measurements average (ug/m ) 3 in Chapter 1.4, emissions sources have varying temporal intensities throughout the year Source: World Bank. and therefore, it is expected that sources’ Note: Blue dots are the modeled monthly concentrations, and the dashed line is the trend in the average monitored contributions to PM 2.5 concentrations will also concentrations. vary in the different months and seasons. 14 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Figure 17: Modeled source contributions to average annual PM 2.5 concentrations in Tashkent (%) As shown on Figure 17, windblown dust 19 has the highest 7% contribution to annual average PM 2.5 concentrations. 6% Residential and commercial heating is the anthropogenic source with the highest contribution to average annual PM 2.5 6% 1% 36% concentrations and is responsible for 28 percent of average annual PM 2.5 concentrations. In the winter, the contribution of PM2.5 heating to average monthly PM 2.5 concentrations surpasses the contribution of windblown dust and can reach nearly 45 28% percent in some winter months (for example, December). On the other hand, the contribution of windblown dust 16% to average monthly concentrations peaks in the summer months when it could account for over half of the PM 2.5 pollution in Tashkent (for example, June). Residential / Commercial Light Industry 7% Heating 29% Boundary / Waste Burning 1% Windblown Dust36% Urban Dust 6% Transport 16% 19 Windblown dust (boundary) represents particles carried by wind into Tashkent Heavy Industry 6% from the adjoining areas such as agricultural and open fields, for instance. Source: World Bank. Figure 18: Modeled source contributions to average monthly PM2.5 concentrations in Tashkent (%) January February March April 6% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 5% 6% 1% 1% 7% 32% 9% 36% 1% 45% 2% 48% 18% 9% 39% 41% 13% 12% 19% 17% May June July August 8% 7% 9% 9% 5% 5% 4% 5% 11% 12% 14% 13% 1% 45% 1% 53% 45% 49% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 3% 21% 23% 25% 23% September October November December 9% 6% 6% 9% 4% 4% 7% 11% 26% 10% 6% 26% 1% 3% 13% 1% 44% 44% 2% 15% 14% 3% 16% 38% 25% 44% 19% Residential / Commercial Heating 29% Light Industry 7% Waste Burning 1% Heavy Industry 6% Urban Dust 6% Boundary / Windblown Dust 36% Transport 16% Source: World Bank. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 15 The contribution of transport to PM 2.5 concent- the winter months when there is higher demand rations varies from 12 percent in the winter to for TPP-produced energy, the impact of the 25 percent in the late summer and early fall. The numerous light industries in Tashkent combined contribution of transport to PM 2.5 concentrations is larger than the impact of the heavy industries in Tashkent grows in the months when heating operating in the city (the TPP plant, a metal is not used, highlighting again that heating is factory, and a foundry were included in the heavy the main contributor to PM 2.5 concentrations in industry category). Tashkent in the winter. Transport is the second The contribution of urban dust originating most important anthropogenic contributor to from construction activities and resuspended PM 2.5 concentrations in all seasons, and in the particles from roads to PM 2.5 concentrations summer, transport is the second largest source peaks in the summer and early fall at 13–14 of PM 2.5 pollution after windblown dust. percent due to increased construction activities The contribution of industry (heavy and light and road dust resuspension because of dry industries combined) to PM 2.5 concentrations is weather conditions. The contribution of open relatively stable at 12 to 13 percent throughout waste burning to PM 2.5 concentrations is small the year but peaks to 17 percent in the winter and relatively constant throughout the year— due to larger loads at the thermal power plant estimated at 1 or 2 percent. (TPP) plant (for example, December). Apart from 16 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan 1.6. Summary and Suggested Next Steps The results from this study laid the technical opportunities and efficiently manage trade- foundations for further air quality analyses offs. 20 for Tashkent and supported the development Determining the PaMs with the highest PM 2.5 of the AQM roadmap with regard to sectoral concentrations’ reduction potential does not interventions. The study conducted analysis necessarily mean that those measures are the of air quality and meteorology trends, created most cost-effective ones to be implemented. a spatially and temporally dynamic emissions There might be a variety of measures with lower map, and modeled the contributions to PM 2.5 pollution reduction potential that are more cost- concentrations in Tashkent of different sources. effective and if implemented together could In this way, the most important analytical work bring substantial reduction in air pollution. in preparing an air quality plan was performed by Therefore, a cost-effectiveness analysis of this study. emission reduction PaMs is integral to air quality The next step is to assess the impact on planning. pollutant concentrations of a variety of emission A cost-effectiveness analysis combines the reduction measures and determine the ones results from modeling the impact of emission that reduce PM 2.5 concentrations the most. reduction measures with the results of Given the large contribution of the heating sector economic and financial analyses on the costs of to peak winter PM 2.5 concentrations in Tashkent, those measures. This study compiled a baseline it is likely that the most impactful measures emissions inventory which can be used in modeling will be related to adopting cleaner residential the impact of emission reduction measures. Each and commercial heating options. Nevertheless, measure needs to be defined in a way that allows this study has shown that the contribution of the calculation of emission estimates that can be other sources such as transport and industry, compared to the baseline. Then, modeling, using as well as sources from outside Tashkent, are the new emission estimates from the emission also important. Therefore, it is likely that to reduction scenarios should be performed to comply with international air quality standards, assess the impact of the given measure(s) on a balanced approach to air quality improvement PM 2.5 concentrations. Cost and technical data for that includes PaMs across different sectors will the emission reduction measure(s) should also be be needed. collected for the financial and economic analyses. In addition, it is important to assess the impact For instance, the financial analysis of an emission of PaMs to reduce PM 2 .5 concentrations on reduction measure replacing a coal stove with green-house gas (GHG) emissions. Priority a heat pump needs the following information: sources of PM 2.5 and GHGs in Tashkent differ the price of coal, the typical efficiency of a coal and hence, co-benefits and trade-offs between stove used in Uzbekistan, the price of the coal air quality and climate change mitigation policies stove, the operation and maintenance expenses have to be considered. It has been shown that of the coal stove, the price of electricity, typical co-benefits are maximized if there are strong efficiency of a heat pump on the domestic market, air pollution and climate change policies that the price of the heat pump, and the operation are implemented jointly to harness win-win and maintenance expenses of the heat pump. 20 Peszko, Grzegorz, Markus Amann, Yewande Awe, Gary Kleiman, and Tamer Samah Rabie. 2022. Air Pollution and Climate Change: From Co-Benefits to Coherent Policies. International Development in Focus. Washington, DC: World Bank. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 17 Moreover, the economic analysis of the same cost-effective ones. A comprehensive analysis of measure requires data also on societal impacts implementation modalities also includes sources from implementing the measure such as change of financing for the given policy and measure, in health outcomes, impacts on GHG emissions, responsibilities for enforcement, monitoring, and and health and carbon costs. The results of the reporting. economic and financial analyses can then be The process of air quality planning involves a presented as money spent to improve air quality wide range of assessments — from technical by 1 µg/m 3 which can inform the prioritization of to financial, economic, policy, and regulatory emission reduction measures according to their analyses. This study provides a solid basis for cost-effectiveness. the technical aspect of air quality planning The most cost-effective PaMs might not be which following assessments can build on. the easiest and quickest ones to implement. Completing the steps outlined above will help Therefore, analysis of implementation modalities define PaMs to be implemented as a priority and is also an essential aspect of air quality planning. will provide the tools for dynamic calibration of There is no harm in implementing PaMs that PaMs to improve air quality in Tashkent, thus would bring some air quality benefits quickly fully reflecting the complex nature of air quality and relatively easily even if they are not the most management (AQM). 18 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan PART 2: Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 19 2.1. Introduction 2.1.1 Objectives of the roadmap ments in air quality improvement, and The roadmap for AQM improvement in ለ To support the development of a long-term Uzbekistan (AQM roadmap) outlines PaMs for AQM vision. all components of the AQM system. The AQM As the main institution responsible for AQM roadmap is focused on definition of PaMs for in Uzbekistan, the suggested actions in AQM improvement as a first step to supporting the roadmap focus on items for which the a more detailed discussion with government execution primarily falls under the jurisdiction stakeholders about operationalizing the agreed of MoEEPCC. Therefore, the latest relevant priority actions. Apart from the definition of Presidential decrees regarding MoEEPCC PaMs, further discussions and analyses are functions and discussions with MoEEPCC on needed to provide better granularity for the priorities in the ministry’s work plan were also priority PaMs such as required capacities and considered in drafting this AQM roadmap. 21 resources, implementation costs, and financing and implementation options. The AQM roadmap AQM is a cross-sectoral issue and hence, thus serves as a framework to structure the areas for which coordination is needed are discussion about PaMs’ implementation. also flagged, with MoEEPCC playing a leading coordination role. The ultimate goal of the The technical air quality assessment for roadmap is to support the establishment and Tashkent is the analytical foundation to functioning of a holistic AQM framework that determine the key sectors for which PaMs need includes all relevant components of an effective to be defined in the AQM roadmap. The core AQM system as presented in Section 2.1.2. of air quality improvement efforts is reducing emissions from key sources. Therefore, the 2.1.2. Components of an effective technical air quality assessment for Tashkent was AQM system undertaken to identify the sources contributing Effective AQM systems that at the same time the most to PM 2.5 pollution in Uzbekistan’s largest can be dynamically calibrated to address new city. The results from the assessment informed and emerging challenges and / or accommodate the sectoral focus of PaMs in the AQM roadmap. improved knowledge and research on air The aims of the AQM roadmap are quality typically consist of several inter- linked components (Figure 19). While the ለ To outline and elaborate on priority measures implementation of PaMs to reduce air pollutants’ in the short and medium term to strengthen emissions to the atmosphere plays a central role overall AQM in Uzbekistan, in improving air quality, the design of adequate ለ To contribute to reforms and to an updated PaMs might not be effective in the absence of AQM legal and policy framework that would appropriate AQ monitoring, progressive targets facilitate improvements in air quality in the and standards for air quality, and detailed analysis country, of emission sources’ contributions to pollutant ለ To suggest approaches to streamline concentrations. While they do not directly stakeholder engagement and inter-ministerial reduce emissions, they set the foundation for the coordination for AQM, appropriate and cost-effective design, planning, prioritization, and implementation of emission ለ To identify potential priority areas for invest- reduction PaMs. 21 Presidential decrees No. 81 and No. 171 of May 31, 2023, and Presidential Decree 300 of September 11, 2023. 20 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Figure 19: Components of an effective AQM system Monitoring Determine key pollutants and hotspots Evaluation Targets FINANCING Assess progress and Set AQ standards revise approach if needed to protect health Manage synergies and trade-offs with GHG reduction Policies and Emission Stakeholder Measures consultations, sources Implement emission vertical and horizontal Determine key reduction policies coordination emission sources and measures Source: World Bank. ለ Monitoring. The AQM cycle begins and ends for which interventions need to be focused. with monitoring that provides reliable data on In the absence of emission sources’ analysis, the extent of air pollution and the progress the design of PaMs might not focus on the made to improve air quality. The existence and most important emissions sources in terms of extent of air pollution—and hence the need reducing air pollutants’ concentrations, which for PaMs to be adopted—are detected by AQ might lead to the adoption of cost-inefficient monitoring. Moreover, the progress made PaMs. to improve air quality is also verified by AQ ለ Implementing PaMs to reduce emissions. monitoring. Once the prioritization of emission sources is ለ Target setting. Targets are generally the conducted, decision-makers can design and regulatory instruments to encourage the implement emission reduction interventions, implementation of measures to improve commonly referred to as PaMs. Implementing air quality. The main types of targets are PaMs is at the core of efforts to improve AQ standards to protect human health and air quality. Nevertheless, PaMs’ design and emission limit values (ELVs) to ensure limits to implementation might be inefficient if the AQM pollution from enterprises. The main reason system’s components discussed previously are why PaMs to reduce air pollution are designed not in place. Important considerations in the is to achieve the set targets. Therefore, the design of PaMs are identifying the opportunities stringency of the targets will inform the level of for synergies with GHG emissions reductions ambition of PaMs—AQ standards or ELVs that and managing potential trade-offs with GHG allow for a relatively high levels of pollution emissions reductions. will naturally yield PaMs with more moderate ለ Evaluating the progress and effects of impacts on air quality and consequently on PaMs. Periodic evaluation of the progress in human health. PaMs’ implementation as well as the effects ለ Emission sources’ analysis. The analysis of of PaMs’ implementation is needed to assess the contributions of different emission sources the PaMs’ effectiveness and, if needed, revise to overall air pollutants’ concentrations is or calibrate the adopted PaMs. AQ monitoring instrumental in AQM. Such analysis allows for data play a key role in evaluating the progress the identification of priority emission sources and effects of PaMs’ implementation. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 21 ለ Stakeholder consultations and commu- inventory system in close link with the GHG nication. Stakeholder consultations and emissions inventory communication are an integral part of every (d) Establishing integrated AQ data management component of the AQM process but are and analysis that could also support the especially important when identifying the development of air dispersion modeling and priority emission sources and agreeing AQ forecasting on PaMs to be implemented. Stakeholder PaMs: consultations and communication are also important tools for raising awareness about (e) Developing AQM policies and planning the sources of air pollution and for providing (f) Implementing PaMs in key sectors public buy-in for PaMs. (g) Engaging with stakeholders, communication, ለ Financing the functioning of the AQM and public awareness system. Financial resources are needed Financing and investment: for every component of the AQM system— from installing and maintaining reliable AQ (h) Financing of the AQM system and AQ monitoring stations to implementing PaMs. improvement measures Hence, ensuring adequate financing for the (i) Investments and policy reforms. different components of the AQM system is a The structure of Part 2 is as follows: Chapter key prerequisite for the efficient functioning of 2.2 provides an overview of institutional the whole system. arrangements for AQM in Uzbekistan. Chapter 2.3 describes the rationale for the selection 2.1.3. Structure of the AQM roadmap of technical AQM system components to be The AQM roadmap categorizes the AQM included in the AQM roadmap, Chapter 2.4 then system components into technical, PaMs, focuses on the suggested PaMs in the AQM and financing and investment. The AQM roadmap, and Chapter 2.5 outlines considerations roadmap thus consists of measures addressing for AQM financing and investments. All the the following topics within the AQM system suggested measures outlined in Part 2 are components: then summarized in a table format in Chapter Technical: 2.6. The table contains information on the measures’ description, rationale, priority level, (a) Setting up of national AQ monitoring and suggestions for responsible institutions (b) Updating AQ standards and supporting institutions to implement the (c) Setting up a robust air pollutants’ emissions measures. 22 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan 2.2. Overview of Institutional Arrangements for AQM in Uzbekistan The main institutions at the national level (MACs). Uzbek legislation lists MACs for 485 involved in AQM in Uzbekistan are MoEEPCC substances, but MACs are missing for PM 2.5 which and the Ministry of Health (MoH). MoH’s main is the pollutant posing the most serious health responsibility for AQM is to set the air quality concern according to the WHO. MACs for other standards 22 for the protection of human health key pollutants are higher than WHO guidelines (see Figure 20). and, in many cases, higher than international The air quality standards in Uzbekistan take the limit values. For instance, PM10 daily MAC in form of one-time, daily, monthly, and/or annual Uzbekistan is 300 µg/m 3 which is over six times average maximum allowable concentrations higher than the WHO PM10 daily guideline value. Figure 20: Main AQM responsibilities of MoH Ministry of Health State Sanitary and Epidemiological Service Main AQ responsibilities: • Develop AQ standards • Assess health impact of air pollution • Establish sanitary classification of Main responsibilities: • enterprises and the size of minimum Monitoring enterprises for breaching • protection zones sanitary standards Source: World Bank. MoEEPCC is responsible for formulating and MoEEPCC. There is a separate department within implementing environmental policies and regu- MoEEPCC—the Atmospheric Air Protection lations in Uzbekistan, including those related to Department—which reports directly to one of AQM. MoEEPCC is also in charge of the nation- MoEEPCC’s deputy ministers. The Center for State al Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) pro- Environmental Expertise which is subordinate to cess, which involves establishing air pollutants’ MoEEPCC is responsible for issuing enterprises’ emission limits for industrial facilities. Uzhydrom- permit conclusions and setting ELVs for newly et, under MoEEPCC, is responsible for air quality commissioned and existing enterprises. In addition, monitoring and forecasting. MoEEPCC has regional branches that are mainly In January 2023, the status of the former State responsible for inspections at enterprises regarding Committee on Ecology and Environmental their emission limits as well as awareness-raising Protection was upgraded to a ministry, and in May activities, including on air quality. Tashkent city has 2023 the functions of the ministry were updated its own MoEEPCC department—the Tashkent City when the Ministry of Natural Resources became Department of MoEEPCC (see Figure 21). 22 SanPin No. 0053-23 from August 7, 2023, hygienic standards for the content of harmful and toxic substances, producer microorganisms, bacterial preparations, and air ions in the atmospheric air of residential areas. https://lex.uz/docs/6676993 Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 23 Figure 21: Main AQM responsibilities of the MoEEPCC Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection and Climate Change Atmospheric Air Center for State Tashkent/Regional Uzhydromet Main responsibilities: Protection Dept Environment Expertise Dept of MoEEPCC • AQ policy (development, integration, interagency cooperation) • Develop and implement Main Newly formed Main Main state responsibilities: department, responsibilities: responsibilities: • AQ programs • AQ monitoring specifically • Issues conclusions • Inspections responsible for all • Communicate AQ data • AQ labs on enterprises' at enterprises AQ-related policies permits • Develops AQ legislation • AQ forecasting • Public • Sets emission awareness-raising • State environmental • GHG emissions control limit values for inventory • Sets emissions limits for new and existing enterprises industrial facilities • Collects and monitors emissions data from businesses • Environmental Impact • Assessment • Collection of compensa- tion payments for pollution • Implementation of mechanisms to reduce transport vehicles' emissions Source: World Bank. The main legal document on air quality in UNFCCC are for 2012. Uzbekistan is the Law on Atmospheric Air MoEEPCC’s responsibilities with regard to AQM Protection. 23 The Law on Atmospheric Air are largely related to controlling emissions Protection outlines the AQM system in the country from enterprises through specific emission and regulates the overall protection of atmospheric limits and through the EIA procedures. air, emission limits, and implementation of pollution MoEEPCC also collects compensation payments control measures. The laws on Environmental for emissions from industries and fines if Protection 24 and on Ecological Control 25 set the enterprises’ emission limits are exceeded. general principles of environmental protection, Nevertheless, there is no legal responsibility including with regard to air quality. Uzbekistan for MoEEPCC, its regional branches, or local or has ratified the United Nations Framework regional authorities to develop air quality plans if Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the pollutant concentrations breach the national air Paris Agreement but has not yet become a party quality standards. In many countries, air quality to the United Nations Economic Commission plans are the main AQM policy tools and include for Europe (UNECE) Convention on Long-Range specific measures that authorities implement to Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP). However, reduce air pollution. the feasibility study on becoming a party to CLRTAP was included in the Environmental Protection Recent changes introduced in Presidential Concept by 2030, approved by the President in Decree 171 from May 31, 2023, 26 defined October 2019. Uzbekistan is thus not submitting additional responsibilities for AQM for air pollutant emission inventories to CLRTAP. MoEEPCC, especially in the area of reducing Moreover, the last GHG emissions reported to transport vehicles’ emissions. The Presidential 23 Law on Atmospheric Air Protection (No. 353-I from December 27, 1992). https://lex.uz/acts/58400. 24 Law on Environmental Protection (No. 754-XII from December 9, 1992). https://lex.uz/ru/docs/7065. 25 Law on Ecological Control (No. ZRU-363 from December 27, 2013). https://lex.uz/acts/2304949. 26 Presidential Decree 171 “On measures for the effective organization of activities of the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection and Climate Change”. https://lex.uz/ru/docs/6479136. 24 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Decree stipulates that by December 2023, role in air quality data management is strength- MoEEPCC, along with the Ministry of Internal ened as MoEEPCC is obliged to not just perform Affairs and the Ministry of Transport, should air quality monitoring through Uzhydromet but develop economic mechanisms to reduce vehicle also disseminate the data to the general popula- emissions. The proposed measures in those tion. mechanisms include introducing mandatory Due to the complex nature of air pollution, ecological certification for vehicles using gas, responsibilities for improving air quality span gasoline, and diesel engines for state and corporate across institutions. For instance, the Ministry of entities as well as voluntary certification for legal Construction and Communal Services plays an and individual entities. Compensation pollution important role in regulating the residential sector fees will be reduced for vehicles with ecological in Uzbekistan which is the largest contributor to certification, compared to the vehicles that do PM 2.5 pollution in Tashkent in the winter as shown not meet the specified standards. Additionally, in this study. On the other hand, the Ministry of modern laboratory infrastructure is planned to be Internal Affairs controls atmospheric air pollution established for vehicles’ emission measurement, during the exploitation of motor vehicles and is and ecological monitoring of transportation responsible for the periodic vehicle inspections vehicles is planned to be enhanced. The final in Uzbekistan. At the local level, institutions normative rules and economic mechanisms to involved in AQM include the regional branches reduce vehicular emissions will be submitted for of MoEEPCC and Uzhydromet. The regional approval to the Cabinet of Ministers. MoEEPCC and Uzhydromet branches are mainly In addition to developing mechanisms to reduce responsible for inspecting enterprises and air vehicular emissions, Presidential Decree 171 quality monitoring, respectively. Municipalities stipulated that MoEEPCC should install display also play a role in AQM as they are responsible for boards in Tashkent that provide continuous in- urban planning, traffic management, communal formation about air pollution. Thus, MoEEPCC’s and heating services, and so on. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 25 2.3. Technical Components in the Suggested AQM Roadmap Although the technical components of the AQM and United States) are based on methodologies system do not directly reduce emissions and that include description of the pollutants to be consequently pollutants’ concentrations, they monitored, procedures for the number of AQ establish the foundation for the implementation monitoring stations needed, the type of AQ of polices and measures (PaMs) that directly monitoring stations, criteria for the location of AQ improve air quality. The technical components monitoring stations, and so on. of the AQM system provide the necessary The number of AQ monitoring stations is usually data and information to design PaMs, such as based on population density and there are pollution levels, pollution hotspots, key emission requirements for a certain number of stations sources, and the capability for conducting AQ per a given number of inhabitants which are forecasts. On the other hand, AQM system’s often linked to concentration thresholds (a technical components discussed in this chapter range in pollutant concentrations for which it is provide the basis for establishing the regulatory deemed necessary to perform monitoring). AQ framework for AQM such as AQ standards and monitoring stations are generally classified into ELVs. The implementation of PaMs is still possible industrial, traffic oriented, urban background, without having the technical components of the and rural background. A national AQ monitoring AQM system in place, but it is likely that PaMs’ network should include each type of station. In Implementation will be ineffective and inefficient, addition, pollution hotspots can include a mix of including cost-inefficient. the different types of AQ monitoring stations, 2.3.1 AQ monitoring depending on the main sources of pollution. Locating an AQ monitoring station also requires As illustrated in Figure 19, AQ monitoring considerations regarding macroscale siting (for provides the foundation of the overall AQM example, in which city/area a station should be system. AQ monitoring allows for the identification located and what type of station is needed) as and localization of air pollution. Data from AQ well as microscale siting (for example, appropriate monitoring help identify the pollution hotspots and air flow around the sampling inlets, access to the trends in air quality over time as well as assist electricity, and distance from pollution sources). in tracking progress of PaMs implementation. All these requirements should be described in In general, there are four main types of AQ an official document—an adopted methodology monitoring: manual, automatic (including and/or other legal document. mobile automatic), and through sensors and Apart from AQ monitoring stations, an AQ satellites. Each type of AQ monitoring has its monitoring network requires accredited own benefits—scope, cost, accuracy, and so on. laboratories. These laboratories could perform However, modern AQ monitoring networks are periodic calibration and maintenance of the built around automatic AQ monitoring stations stations and undertake additional analyses of and could often incorporate lower cost AQ pollutants (for example, heavy metals, PAH, and sensors, if deemed necessary. chemical component of PM samples). In addition, the development of national AQ Automatic AQ monitoring stations are monitoring networks is based on agreed vision expensive, which often limits the number that and procedures for the deployment of AQ a country can deploy in a given city/area. This is monitoring stations. Developed AQ monitoring why lower cost AQ sensors monitoring some key networks (for example, in the European Union [EU] pollutants such as PM 2.5 and NO2 are increasingly 26 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan being integrated into AQ monitoring networks. automatic AQ monitoring stations in measuring The main advantage of the AQ sensors is that concentrations. Nevertheless, the accuracy and due to their lower costs many of them can be the possibilities for calibration of AQ sensors deployed in a given city/area, thus providing have improved, which makes AQ sensors a important spatial information for air pollution in possible solution for expanding the availability different locations. The main disadvantage of the and accessibility of air quality data. AQ sensors is that they are not as accurate as the Key recommendations ለ Develop air quality monitoring network modernization plan. ለ Update legislation on the air quality monitoring network in line with the modernization plan. ለ Install air quality monitoring stations in line with modernization plan. ለ Establish/update laboratories to support the functioning of the air quality monitoring network. 2.3.2 AQ standards AQ standards are fundamental targets in the air protection policies, it is prudent to focus overall AQM system cycle presented in Figure national AQ standards on the most important 19. The main objective of AQ standards is to air pollutants from a health perspective and protect human and ecosystems’ health. The deal with other air pollutants on a case-by-case scientific research on the health impacts of air basis. The WHO considers that six key air pollu- pollution has advanced significantly and it is tants cause the largest health damage—PM 2.5 , important that national AQ standards keep up PM 10 , ozone (O3 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ), sulfur with the accumulated knowledge on the topic. dioxide (SO2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO). Based on the latest scientific research from across the There are numerous substances that pollute the world, the WHO updated its air quality guidelines air, but to have an efficient AQM system in terms (AQG) 27 in 2021 as presented in Table 2. of both monitoring pollutants and developing Table 2: WHO updated AQG 2021 Averaging Averaging Pollutant AQG IT Pollutant AQG IT period period 15 µg/m 3 IT1: 75 µg/m 3 25 µg/m 3 3–4 exceed- IT2: 50 µg/m 3 3–4 IT1: 120 µg/m 3 24 hours 24 hours ance days IT3: 37.5 µg/m 3 exceedance IT2: 50 µg/m 3 per year IT4: 25 µg/m 3 days per year PM 2.5 NO2 IT1: 35 µg/m 3 IT1: 40 µg/m 3 Calendar IT2: 25 µg/m 3 5 µg/m 3 Calendar year 10 µg/m 3 IT2: 30 µg/m 3 year IT3: 15 µg/m 3 IT3: 20 µg/m 3 IT4: 10 µg/m 3 45 µg/m 3 IT1: 150 µg/m 3 100 µg/m 3 Maximum 3–4 exceed- IT2: 100 µg/m 3 3–4 IT1: 160 µg/m 3 24 hours daily 8-hour ance days IT3: 75 µg/m 3 exceedance IT2: 120 µg/m 3 mean per year IT4: 50 µg/m 3 days per year PM 10 O3 IT1: 70 µg/m 3 Calendar IT2: 50 µg/m 3 IT1: 100 µg/m 3 15 µg/m 3 Peak season* 60 µg/m 3 year IT3: 30 µg/m 3 IT2: 70 µg/m 3 IT4: 20 µg/m 3 4 mg/m 3 40 µg/m 3 3–4 exceed- 3–4 IT1: 125 µg/m 3 CO 24 hours SO2 24 hours ance days exceedance IT2: 50 µg/m 3 per year days per year Source: WHO. Note: * Average of daily maximum 8-hour mean concentration in the six consecutive months with the highest six-month running average O 3 concentration. 27 https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/what-are-the-who-air-quality-guidelines Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 27 In addition to the pollutants in Table 2, the Euro- Table 3. The pollutants are benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), pean Environmental Agency (EEA) considers six benzene (C 6 H 6 ), lead (Pb), Arsenic (As), Cadmium more air pollutants to be priority pollutants and (Cd), Nickel (Ni). suggests reference levels (RLs) 28 as shown in Table 3: EEA estimated RLs for other key pollutants Averaging Averaging Pollutant RL (ng/m 3) Pollutant RL (ng/m 3) period period BaP Calendar year 0.12 As Calendar year 6.6 C 6H 6 Calendar year 1.7 Cd* Calendar year 5 Pb* Calendar year 0.5 Ni Calendar year 25 Source: EEA. Note: *WHO AQG are set at the same level. National AQ standards generally strive to AQ standards is to match WHO guidelines of air achieve a healthy environment by limiting pollution considered to not cause significant air pollution. However, in many countries, damage to human health. It is recognized that the AQ standards do not match WHO guidelines contribution of windblown dust in Uzbekistan is but rather adopt some of the WHO’s ITs considerable—as shown in Figure 17, windblown (see Table 2) due to local circumstances (for dust contributes to 36 percent of annual average example, significant transboundary pollution). PM 2.5 concentrations in Tashkent which by itself Nevertheless, international best practice shows is larger than WHO’s PM 2.5 guideline. Therefore, that national AQ standards should focus on key authorities in Uzbekistan could consider a staged air pollutants and be reviewed periodically to approach to updating the national AQ standards account for any new scientific knowledge that by first aligning the AQ standards with the has become available or any significant changes WHO’s ITs because of the large contribution of in emission sources. The ultimate goal of national windblown dust. Key recommendations ለ Update national AQ standards in line with international best practices. ለ Include standards for PM2.5. 2.3.3 Emissions inventory A robust and reliable air pollutants’ emissions tackle emissions from those sources so that inventory provides the backbone of any AQM air quality is improved in an efficient and cost- system. The emissions inventory has multiple effective way. uses, including the following: ለ Conducting health impact studies. Emission ለ Determining the key emission sources for estimates are at the core of conducting different air pollutants . Source apportionment health impact studies. In addition to local studies based on emission inventories can health data, any health impact assessment determine the contribution of different sources requires a robust and reliable local emissions to air pollutants’ emissions and allow for the inventory. identification of priority emission sources. ለ Conducting AQ dispersion modeling and ለ National and local air quality policies forecasting. The results from the emissions planning. Knowledge of the key emission inventory are a key input into AQ dispersion sources can then inform targeted policies to modeling and forecasting. The more detailed 28 World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines (AQGs) and estimated reference levels (RLs) — European Environment Agency (europa.eu). 28 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan and accurate the emissions inventory, the for the emissions inventory to be considered closer to the actual air quality situation the robust and reliable, it has to be consistent, AQ modeling results would be. An emissions comparable, transparent, complete, and inventory with good resolution and sufficient accurate. Therefore, the development and detail can be used to create local emission update of the AQ emissions inventory system maps, which can then feed into AQ modeling require solid design, planning, and technical at different scales—city, regional, national, and capacity (see Figure 22). so on. In addition, the emission inventories The emissions inventory system needs to bring can be utilized to estimate emissions together data from different institutions, often projections based on different scenarios—for in different formats. The emissions invento- example, ‘business as usual’ and impact from ry system also requires technical expertise for implementing certain PaMs. analyzing the input data, performing emissions ለ International reporting. An emissions calculations, providing quality control and assur- inventory is a key component of international ance, and describing assumptions used. Never- reporting. Similar to the requirements of theless, the emissions inventory system does not UNFCCC, it is the obligation of the parties need to be a complex one. Some of the best prac- to CLRTAP to annually report national tice emissions inventory systems globally are emissions of various pollutants using standard based on Excel spreadsheets. It is important that methodologies and reporting formats. the emissions inventory system is simple so that ለ Public information, communication, and the people working with it can easily use, main- awareness raising. The results from the tain, update, and develop it. In addition, there are emissions inventory can be used as a public international best practices and guidelines that communication and awareness-raising tool. can be used to structure the emissions invento- The emissions inventory can be used to ry process in a consistent and reliable manner. disseminate information about the key sources Moreover, as a large share of the input data and of air pollution in a given area, the intensity of calculation methodologies for the AQ emissions emissions, and the results from projection and inventory overlaps with the GHG emissions in- forecasting analyses. ventory, it is resource effective to maximize syn- ergies in the compilation of the two inventories. International best practice stipulates that Figure 22: Data flows in a standard emissions inventory system Data Providers Emissions Inventory Team Reporting Experts & Managers GHG International reporting Bespoke Annual reports Emissions Public information Calculation Database Spreadsheets AQ International reporting Input Data Methodology Output Datasets Data Updates Checks Checks Checks Data Checks Quality Assurance & Control, Continuous Improvement Source: Aether. Key recommendations ለ Update and strengthen the emission inventory system to meet international best practice. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 29 2.3.4 Data management and analysis data on future meteorological conditions and ideally data on future emission levels An expanded AQ monitoring network and a of different sources. Access to such data strengthened emissions inventory system will can allow AQ forecasting which in turn is a increase the amount of data being processed powerful public communication and decision- which in turn will require optimized data making tool. For instance, AQ forecasting can management. Data management relates to the be used to ‘switch on’ the implementation of collection, storage, processing, analysis, and AQM measures (for example, traffic regulation dissemination of data. A properly designed data measures, restrictions on industrial activities, management system could also allow for real- restriction on certain fuels used for residential time data sharing (for example, on monitoring of heating) if it is expected that high pollution industrial emissions) and more complex analyses episodes can occur in the next days. In addition, such as conducting AQ dispersion modeling disseminating the results of AQ forecasting can and AQ forecasting. The data management inform people of ways to avoid high exposure system could be part of a unified environmental to air pollution. database or could be a dedicated AQ data management system. Moreover, a well-designed ለ Scenario modeling. One of the most powerful data management system can support the uses of AQ modeling is to model scenarios. operation of the Situation Center suggested to The scenarios could be of different nature, be established under MoEEPCC by providing but they all support policy making. For access to all relevant data and thus aiding the instance, AQ modeling can be used to model Situation Center’s work in overall environmental the expected impact on air pollution from monitoring and analysis but also in disseminating infrastructure projects (for example, a new information to the public. ring road) or implementing a low-emission zone (LEZ). AQ modeling can also be used to In addition to compiling an emissions inven- project air quality under different scenarios tory, another key analytical task in AQM is and ambition levels (for example, ‘business performing AQ modeling. AQ modeling requires as usual’, ambitious scenario of measures’ systematic input of different data (for example, implementation, and moderately ambitious emissions, meteorological, topography, and GIS- scenarios of measures’ implementation), based data) and therefore, a well-functioning thus assisting decision-makers in choosing data management system providing easy access the most optimal scenario under current to the required data to modelers is fundamental constraints. for carrying out AQ modeling. AQ modeling is mainly used to conduct: Apart from detailed and reliable data, AQ modeling requires obtaining AQ modeling ለ Source apportionment studies to determine software, having the technical infrastructure the contribution of different emission to use the software, and having trained staff sources to air pollution (to the concentrations who can work with the selected AQ model(s) . of air pollutants). Hence, AQ modeling can Developing AQ modeling capacities might take identify the priority sources to be tackled so time and therefore, careful examination of that concentrations of air pollutants are be the scope of AQ modeling, the resources, and reduced. capacities needed is fundamental to provide a ለ AQ forecasting. AQ forecasting requires solid base to develop AQ modeling in the country. Key recommendations ለ Establish a comprehensive and easy-to-use data management system. ለ Establish needs and capacities to perform A modeling, including forecasting. 30 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan 2.4. Policies and Measures in the Suggested AQM Roadmap The implementation of Policies and Measures any other legal act that relates to some aspects (PaMs) to reduce emissions from key sectors of AQM such as AQ standards, institutional and/or mitigate the impact of pollution sources mandates for AQM, EIAs, sectoral legislation of such as windblown dust is the core of the AQM key emission sources, and fiscal legislation on system. The implementation of PaMs brings pollution fees and taxes. All these regulations air quality benefits. However, as previously have to be reviewed and updated in line with mentioned, PaMs’ implementation that is not the national vision for development of the AQM based on solid technical background is likely to framework, articulated in the AQM strategy. not achieve the desired outcomes cost effectively. Revising pollution fees and charges to provide This chapter considers AQM policies and planning clear incentives for enterprises to reduce in general and provides suggestions for PaMs pollution and improve performance by setting for the key sectors identified in the technical the level of pollution fees and taxes over the assessment for Tashkent, presented in Part I. marginal abatement costs could be a particularly 2.4.1 AQM policies and planning impactful update to the legal framework to incentivize enterprises to invest in cleaner The main use of AQ data from AQ monitoring, production. To start with, Uzbekistan needs to emission estimates, and AQ modeling is reform the current system of pollution fees and to inform policy making and facilitate the charges—instead of focusing on a long list of air implementation and evaluation of measures. pollutants, the reformed system could focus on the Therefore, strengthening AQM policies and key pollutants in terms of impact of health. Thus, capacities at the national and local levels the system will be simplified which will facilitate for planning AQ improvement measures’ monitoring and enforcement. The simplified implementation is the ultimate result of improved and better enforceable system of pollution fees data collection and analysis. and charges, coupled with updated level of fees The vision for the overall AQM framework and charges, could encourage enterprises to development could be articulated in a national reduce emissions of key pollutants. In addition, AQM strategy that might outline the direction developing a section of green taxonomy for AQ of work in the area of AQM. The AQM strategy improvement projects could attract funding from should be consulted with a wide range of additional sources for such projects. stakeholders, ranging from institutions and Air pollution is a local issue — the people living academia to businesses and civil society. Once in areas with high air pollution are the ones an AQM strategy is agreed upon and adopted, a suffering the most from it — however, national- review of the current legal framework could be level institutions and regulations are an integral undertaken to update it, where needed, to be in part of the overall AQM . For instance, AQ line with the adopted AQM strategy. monitoring networks are generally managed at As with any other environmental aspect, AQ is the national level, some key legislation is passed regulated through laws and regulations. Hence, at the national level, and the overall responsibility a core activity in strengthening the overall AQM for AQM rests typically with ministries of is the further development of the AQM legal environment. In addition, implementing measures framework. The AQM legal framework includes to improve AQM is highly dependent on the not only the Law on Atmospheric Air Pollution but local political and economic interests. Strong Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 31 leadership and vision supported by efficient means, restrictions and bans on using certain institutional coordination are required to facilitate fuels in residential and commercial buildings, the measures' implementation. Therefore, there and restrictions on industries. Nevertheless, is a need for vertical coordination on AQM the design of an emergency measure or a mix between national and local institutions. of measures should be based on a combination of technical analyses, enabling regulatory Just like national AQM is usually directed frameworks, risk assessments, and public health through an AQM strategy, local AQM plans considerations to identify the most appropriate are typically the main strategic tools of local and location-specific emergency measures. authorities . The local AQM plan usually covers an AQM zone/agglomeration. Hence, establishing Technical capacities at the local level for design AQM zones/agglomeration could be considered of emergency short-term air pollution measures; as a possible update to the legal framework. Most drafting or overseeing of the drafting of local countries with developed AQM systems require AQM plans; and implementation, evaluation, local authorities where air pollution above the and update of the plans are required. In many national standards is observed to draft local countries, it is general practice that the staff at AQM plans. AQM plans describe the scale of the local environmental departments are responsible problem; identify the key sources that contribute for several environmental aspects; however, in to high air pollution; develop PaMs to tackle areas with high air pollution it is recommended pollution from the key sources; and provide an that dedicated AQ staff are available locally. action plan with clear responsibilities, timelines, Moreover, it is not uncommon for local AQ and sources of financing for the PaMs. The AQM issues to be covered in a unified environmental plan is a dynamic document which is updated management plan. In either case, supporting periodically to address any changes in the local local capacities of municipal employees to work context, evaluate the implementation of PaMs, consistently on AQM issues is advisable. and adopt new PaMs if necessary. Air pollution is a cross-sectoral issue. Air pol- In addition to local AQM plans, an important lution does not originate only from the environ- instrument for reducing air pollution for local mental sector but also from energy, transport, authorities is the implementation of emergency agriculture, and others. Hence, in addition to the air quality measures. Emergency measures to vertical coordination between national and local address short-term episodes of air pollution levels of government, horizontal coordination adopted by local authorities typically involve between different sectoral ministries and agen- actions aimed at reducing pollutant emissions, cies is needed to tackle air pollution efficiently minimizing exposure, and protecting public and comprehensively. A national AQ Council with health. The triggering of emergency air pollution representatives from key sectoral institutions measures is typically based on predefined that has a clear and strong mandate to influence thresholds or criteria established by authorities. AQM actions is a viable mechanism for ensuring For instance, the implementation of emergency adequate coordination on AQM and facilitating air pollution measures can be triggered by the implementation of PaMs. a certain level of an Air Quality Index (AQI), Air pollution is also a global issue. Air pollution surpassing thresholds of certain key air pollutants, does not recognize borders and hence, activities unfavorable meteorological conditions, and/or in one country can have an impact on AQ in its AQ forecasting. For emergency measures to be neighboring countries. Therefore, international proactive, rather than retroactive, forecasting and regional cooperation on AQM is needed to ho- capabilities need to be developed—for example, listically tackle air pollution. This is especially the meteorological and air quality forecasting. case in places like Central Asia that are prone to Emergency measures to respond to short- significant transboundary pollution episodes such term air pollution episodes can include several as from dust storms. Becoming a party to inter- actions such as temporary traffic measures, national treaties, such as CLRTAP, is also a way to including the promotion of alternative transport participate in international cooperation on AQM. 32 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Key recommendations ለ Develop a national AQM strategy. ለ Review and update relevant legislation in line with the adopted AQM. Pay particular attention to legislation on pollution fees and taxes and development of green taxonomy for AQ improvement projects. ለ Strengthen regulations and local capacities for AQM planning, including establishing AQM zones/ agglomerations. ለ Develop local emergency measures for short-term air pollution episodes. ለ Establish an AQM coordination mechanism. ለ Engage in international/regional cooperation in the area of AQM. 2.4.2 PaMs for key sectors dus-trial installations of categories I and II, are subject to environmental permitting. Permits are Implementation of PaMs in key sectors is the key tools for policy makers to limit industrial fundamental to improving air quality. Typically, emissions. Therefore, strengthening industrial PaMs need to be implemented across a variety permitting processes is a key policy measure. In- of sectors to achieve significant reduction in air spiration and benchmarking with advanced indus- pollution. This AQM roadmap focuses on the key trial emission management systems (for example, sectors contributing to PM 2.5 pollution and the as in the EU) could be used to strengthen the per- respective suggested PaMs. mitting process and overall industrial emissions 2.4.2.1. PaMs in the industrial sector regulations in Uzbekistan (see Box 1). The permit- ting process in Uzbekistan can be strengthened in The industrial sector is typically in the focus a number of ways such as the following: of the general public when it comes to air pollution. The pollution from the industrial ለ Setting Emission Limit Values (ELVs) based on sector is easily visible and the scale of emissions best available techniques (BATs) approaches is large. However, the industrial sector is often where an enterprise in a specific industry not the main contributor to urban pollutant should comply with ELVs that correspond to concentrations, particularly PM 2.5 , as demon- the best available technologies on the market strated in the technical assessment for Tashkent for the specific industry. Adopting such an (see Section I.5.3). Nevertheless, PaMs in the approach involves update of legislation as well industrial sector are key components of overall as development and adoption of reference AQM for the following reasons: documentation for BATs in various sectors. ለ The industrial sector is a large emission source ለ Similar to ELVs based on BATs, the of both air pollutants and GHGs and therefore introduction of a ‘green certification’ could provide opportunities for synergies system based on assessing the compliance between air quality and climate change PaMs. of technological processes in industries with environmental standards and requirements ለ It is generally easier to manage industrial and environmental labeling of products and emissions as there are only a certain number services could be considered. In this case, of industrial installations within a given area as an update of environmental standards and opposed to thousands of individuals engaging requirements will be needed. in activities polluting the air such as using fossil fuels for heating and for transport. ለ Alternatively, the methodology for setting ELVs could be updated to promote the setting ለ Managing emissions from the industrial sector of stricter ELVs rather than ELVs based on is under the jurisdiction of MoEEPCC. historical performance or on self-calculations. Industries in Uzbekistan, especially large in- Introducing requirements for installation Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 33 of highly efficient emissions control and The ultimate goal of PaMs in the industrial abatement technologies would also lead to sector is to encourage cleaner and zero- setting stricter ELVs. emission production. As mentioned above, this might not be possible in the short or even ለ The adoption of an integrated permitting the medium term. Nevertheless, PaMs could process that considers environmental impacts still be designed to incentivize industries to from industrial activities in a holistic manner gradually move toward cleaner production. Such can also lead to reduced industrial emissions— PaMs could include reforming pollution taxes for instance, if integrated permitting includes and charges to incentivize industries to reduce energy efficiency requirements, those could in emissions of key air pollutants, introducing a turn promote lower emission processes. carbon tax that makes the use of fossil fuels In addition to strengthening regulations and more expensive, and/or setting up a market- the permitting process, the most certain way based instrument such as emissions trading to reduce and/or eliminate emissions from the system (ETS) that could include different air industrial sector is to use renewable energy pollutants and GHGs. A detailed analysis and and green technologies in industries. However, stakeholder consultations can inform the choice there might be multiple challenges to the use of the most suitable instrument or combination of renewable energy in industries such as of instruments. preexisting conditions, stranded assets, costs, Installing emissions control equipment and and process and infrastructure requirements. fuel switching are often costly endeavors. Therefore, when a switch away from fossil fuels Therefore, access to financing would facilitate is not possible in the short term, then a range such investments. Authorities could consider of PaMs can be implemented to limit industrial various options for incentivizing investments in emissions. cleaner production. Options for green financing For instance, ensuring that industries use could be explored in coordination with the up-to-date emissions control and abatement Ministry of Economy and Finance, commercial technologies is a key part of industrial emission banks, development partners, and other funding management. Emissions control and abatement institutions. technologies are end-of-pipe solutions, but Achieving industrial emission reductions utilizing up-to-date emission controls is requires a holistic approach spanning from mandatory especially in cases where industries strengthening of regulations to providing are not able to switch to zero-emission production incentives for the adoption of green techno- processes. Emissions can be reduced by a large logies and cleaner production. Regulations factor if efficient emissions controls are installed, related to permitting procedures, approaches operated, and maintained properly. to setting ELVs, and efficient emissions control Automatic emissions monitoring, especially at play an instrumental role in establishing an large polluters (category I and II enterprises), enabling regulatory environment for incentivizing facilitates the enforcement work of authorities. emission reductions in industries. The adoption Industries with automatic emissions monitoring of BATs, albeit a long process, has also are much less likely to switch off their emissions proved its effectiveness in reducing industrial control and abatement equipment and surpass emissions. In addition, setting up long-term their ELVs. Until automatic emissions monitoring finance opportunities for industries to invest in is installed at all targeted installations, regular emission reduction technologies and processes inspections have to be conducted to guarantee is a key task to support such investments and that industries are operating in line with the contribute to the overall market development issued permit requirements and additional for clean industrial technologies and production obligations. processes. 34 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Box 1: Industrial emissions regulation in the EU The Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) 29 adopted in 2010 is the main instrument in place in the EU to control and mitigate the environmental and human health impacts from industrial emissions. The IED regulates around 52,000 of the largest industrial installations in the EU covering a range of agro-industrial sectors. The general objective of the IED is to prevent, reduce, and eliminate as far as possible emissions into air, water, and soil and remediate soil pollution arising from industrial activities. The IED is based on several pillars: Integrated permits. Industrial permits must take the whole environmental performance of the plant into account. This covers  emissions to air, water, and land; generation of waste; use of raw materials; energy efficiency; noise; prevention of accidents; and restoration of the site upon closure. BAT. The permit conditions including ELVs must be based on the adoption of BAT. To define BAT and the BAT- associated environmental performance at the EU level, the EU Commission, together with representatives from industry and environmental organizations, develops BAT Reference Documents (BREFs) and the resulting BAT conclusions. The IED then requires that the BAT conclusions are the reference for setting permit conditions. Environmental inspections. The IED stipulates that a system of environmental inspections is set up and inspections are carried out at least once every one to three years. Public participation. The IED requires that the public has the right to participate in the decision-making process and to have access to permit applications, the actual permits, and the results from inspections. The EU conducted an evaluation of the IED in 2020 and reported that because of the IED, by 2017, air pollutants’ emissions of the covered installations had decreased between 40 percent and 75 percent depending on the pollutant. Overall, the evaluation process emphasized the important role the IED played in the reduction of air pollutant emissions in the EU. Key recommendations ለ Strengthen industrial emissions regulations, including the industrial permitting process. ለ Mandate the installation, operation, and maintenance of highly efficient emissions control and automatic emission reporting equipment at key industrial enterprises. ለ Promote cleaner industrial production through regulatory (for example, stricter emission limit values, adoption of BAT), fiscal (for example, progressive pollution fees and charges, carbon tax, targeted financing), and/or market-based instruments (for example, ETS). ለ Identify key priority policies and measures to reduce air pollution from industry. 2.4.2.2. PaMs in the transport sector (a) Vehicle and fuel standards are the Transport is an important source of air pollution foundation of transport policies to reduce in each city worldwide. Transport is the second emissions. Fuel standards mainly relate to largest anthropogenic source of air pollution the sulfur content of fuels used in transport. and the second largest GHG source in Tashkent Regulations could prohibit the use of fuels (see Annex 3). Therefore, reducing transport not meeting certain standards for sulfur emissions and encouraging sustainable urban content. Vehicle standards can take the mobility are key measures to improve urban air form of vehicle emission standards for newly quality and reduce GHGs at the same time. registered vehicles, maximum emission levels of in-use vehicles, and/or fuel economy There are generally four groups of transport vehicle standards. In general, strengthening PaMs to reduce emissions of air pollutants : vehicle and fuel standards requires detailed 29 https://environment.ec.europa.eu/topics/industrial-emissions-and-safety/industrial-emissions-directive_en Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 35 assessment of the current vehicle fleet and better quality of life. Public transport and fuels used. Regulations can then be could be made more attractive than using strengthened and/or adopted based on the a private vehicle to commute in the city by outcomes of such an assessment. making the commute using urban transport quicker or at least as quick as using private (b) Vehicle measures aim to reduce the emissions vehicles, ensuring comfort, timeliness, and of the vehicle fleet. Vehicle measures can accessibility. Improving the attractiveness include requirements for vehicles’ retrofit with of public transport could include optimizing emission control equipment or promotion of timetables and routes to match the daily low-emission vehicles (for example, hybrid transport demands of citizens; establishing and electric vehicles). In addition, policies bus lanes or providing preferential access of targeting the trade of vehicles can be urban transport vehicles; increasing parking introduced such as maximum vehicle age for fees for private vehicles; providing Wi-Fi imported vehicles or restriction on the import connection in urban transport vehicles; setting of specific vehicles (for example, diesel up options for e-ticketing and combined vehicles without emission control equipment public transport tickets; and establishing and diesel light-duty vehicles). Similar to and maintaining a public transport app with adopting vehicle and fuel standards, a up-to-date information about timetables, detailed understanding of the current vehicle routes, estimated time of travel, and so on. In fleet and vehicles’ maintenance practices is addition, the use of modern and low-emission required to implement vehicle measures. For vehicles further increases the attractiveness instance, if removing emission controls from of public transport. To use electric vehicles, vehicles (for example, catalysts and diesel the charging infrastructure should also be particulate filters) is identified as an issue, developed. Other forms of urban mobility then mandating and improving the system could be promoted in parallel to improving the of periodic technical inspections could be attractiveness of public transport. Increased considered. In addition, emission checks on share of nonmotorized transport means (for the road could also be introduced to enforce example, walking and cycling) contributes the implementation of vehicle measures. The to the reduction of air pollutants and GHGs foundation of vehicle measures is to ensure and provides health benefits from increased that vehicles operate according to their levels of physical activity. Cycling can be manufacturing specifications. A vehicle with promoted by setting up an integrated and safe a removed diesel particulate filter might have network of bicycle lanes and bicycle parking emissions that are several-fold higher than connecting the key points of interest within a vehicle with properly functioning filter and the city. In addition, bicycle sharing could also hence, identifying such vehicles and ensuring be established—by the public or the private that vehicles operate at least according to sector or as a public-private partnership. their manufacturing specifications is a key Increasing pedestrian areas, improving task of introducing vehicle measures. sidewalks, and enhancing overall accessibility (c) Low-emission urban transport measures are measures that could promote higher rates are focused on improving the attractiveness of walking in the city. of public transport, promoting hybrid (d) LEZs are often implemented after vehicle and and electric vehicles, and encouraging fuel standards as well as vehicle measures nonmotorized mobility options in cities. Such are already put in place. LEZs define certain measures are optimized if urban transport geographical areas in urban agglomerations demand management is also implemented. that may only be entered by vehicles Improved urban transport reduces the meeting predefined emission standards. It number of private vehicles on the road and is understood that Presidential Decree 171 consequently—congestion. This not only of May 31, 2023, stipulated for restrictions saves emissions of air pollutants and GHGs on vehicle movement in Tashkent city center but also contributes to more livable cities 36 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan during designated hours to be introduced by obligations to facilitate emission reductions from the end of 2023. This is in essence similar to the transport sector: the principles of introducing a LEZ. It should (e) Drafting legislation on the collection of be noted that the most optimal design and environmental fees on motor vehicles implementation of LEZs requires substantial (f) Introducing legislation on regulating the analyses of the local context such as traffic movement of motor vehicles that do not flows, purpose of urban journeys, impact meet certain environmental standards on air quality, and population exposure to air pollution from introducing a LEZ. The (g) Designating certain urban areas as enforcement of LEZs, on the other hand, ‘ecological zones’ where the movement of requires the development of technical motor vehicles is restricted infrastructure such as recognizing license (h) Suggesting areas where fast charging plates, installing cameras, and optimizing stations for electric vehicles are to be notifications for breaching the LEZ rules. established. In addition, implementing a LEZ has a Measures to reduce air pollution from transport social effect as it restricts mobility options as outlined in Presidential Decree 171 of May for parts of the population and hence, 31, 2023, are currently being developed by adequate options for public transport and/ authorities in Uzbekistan. The Cabinet of or nonmotorized urban mobility need to be Ministers adopted a resolution on control of provided. Therefore, the decision to introduce transport emissions on March 29, 2024. 30 The a LEZ should be coupled with a well-targeted resolution’s objective is to reduce air pollution information campaign that clearly explains from vehicles by 2030. The resolution provides the LEZ rules and why an LEZ needs to be for the classification of vehicles into ecological implemented. These considerations should categories (green, yellow, and red). A vehicle’s be taken into account when designing traffic ecological category will be determined during restrictions and/or introducing a LEZ in periodic technical inspections after which a Tashkent and other cities in Uzbekistan. vehicle sticker will be issued to specify the Some of the measures suggested above ecological category the vehicle falls into. require actions at the national level (for The vehicle stickers will then facilitate the example, vehicle and fuel standards, vehicles’ implementation of ecological transport system import regulations), whereas others are in the in Uzbekistan that aim to restrict the movement jurisdiction of local authorities (for example, of polluting vehicles. The first phase of the improved public transport and establishment ecological transport system will be implemented of LEZs). In addition, public transport can also in Tashkent (2024–2026), the second in Nukus be funded either directly through government (2026–2028), and the third phase will include or through competitive governmental programs all other regions of Uzbekistan (2028–2030). for which local authorities can apply. Therefore, Ecological compensation payments for vehicles the need for a coordination mechanism between operating in an ecological zone but not meeting national- and local-level authorities is essential its requirements will also be introduced. to facilitate the efficient implementation and To fulfill the obligations with regard to enforcement of emission reduction measures. reducing emissions from the transport sector, The systematic analysis of pollution reduction MoEEPCC would have to coordinate its work from the transport sector will inform ‘Transport with a number of institutions — Ministry of Sector Greening strategy’ and different Transport, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry investment alternatives. These are generally in of Energy, and local authorities. The March the jurisdiction of the ministries of transport and 29, 2024, resolution on control of transport internal affairs. However, Presidential Decree 171 emissions introduced new obligations for of May 31, 2023, tasked MoEEPCC with several MoEEPCC in the area of managing air pollution 30 https://lex.uz/ru/docs/6858809 Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 37 from transport—to develop a monitoring system national and local authorities. The study could detecting violations in the ecological transport focus on analysis of the transport sector in a system zones. In addition, a dedicated transport target area, for instance, Tashkent, and assess sector study to assess the impact of different the applicability and effectiveness of PaMs PaMs on air pollution from transport could be in the four general groups of transport PaMs conducted by MoEEPCC and the other relevant presented above. Key recommendations ለ Establish a work plan for identification of priority policies and measures in the transport sector and coordinate with relevant authorities to advance legislation on reducing transport emissions. 2.4.2.3. PaMs in the heating sector The AQ assessment for Tashkent showed that appliances, especially those on solid fuels. heating on solid fuels (for example, coal, biomass) Appliances not meeting the minimum contributed up to 45 percent to PM 2.5 pollution efficiency standards will not be allowed to be in some winter months. There are different placed on the market. Technical specifications approaches to reducing heating emissions: to inform the minimum efficiency standards emissions can be reduced if better quality fuels should be developed based on the local and/or appliances are used, heating demand context and market for heating appliances. and consequently emissions can be decreased A market surveillance authority can then by implementing energy efficiency measures, be responsible for enforcing the minimum and emissions can be reduced or eliminated by heating appliances’ standards. The standards switching to cleaner or zero-emissions heating for heating appliances’ efficiency typically practices. There are four general options to set minimum coefficients of performance reduce emissions from heating: (COPs) and maximum thresholds for pollutant emissions for different types of heating ለ Improving the quality of fuels used. The main appliances. Improving fuel quality standards instrument to improve the quality of fuels used and the efficiency of heating appliances for residential heating is to set quality standards require changes in regulations and additional for those fuels. Fuel quality standards could enforcement of the new standards but do not be set for the most polluting fuels—coal and introduce major changes in the methods used biomass-based fuels. Fuel quality standards for heating — households and businesses can typically mandate a minimum level of fuel continue using their current heating practices quality such as calorific value, ash content, provided that the fuel and/or the heating sulfur content in the case of coal fuels, and appliance meet the standards. calorific value and moisture content in the case of biomass fuels. Fuels not meeting the defined ለ Switching to cleaner heating alternatives. quality standards would not be allowed to be Switching to cleaner heating alternatives placed on the market. Typically, enforcement implies changes in heating practices and, like in and control of solid fuels quality standards at the case of energy efficiency, typically requires the point of sale has proven more practical than up-front investment that many households and enforcement at the user level. Moreover, the businesses cannot afford; therefore, financing use of certain fuels can be restricted or banned is needed for incentivizing the switch to cleaner altogether in air pollution hotspot areas. heating appliances. The minimum efficiency standards discussed above usually apply to new ለ Improving the efficiency of heating heating appliances and hence, regulations for appliances. The efficiency of heating existing appliances should also be developed. appliances can be improved by mandating Typically, regulations targeting the switch to minimum efficiency standards for heating 38 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan cleaner heating in existing buildings allow for and training. Higher-level sector reforms involve a transition period when users of inefficient many stakeholders and, if well coordinated, can heating appliances are provided with some incentivize market-based uptake of sustainable time and often financial support to switch to a heating solutions. Measures to reduce emissions more efficient and cleaner heating appliance. In in the heating sector require some regulatory addition, certain polluting fuels and appliances changes and financial assistance to households can be restricted or banned altogether in an air and businesses to afford up-front investments pollution hotspot area—financial mechanisms in energy efficiency and cleaner heating that should be developed to support the adoption pay off over time. The design of regulations and of cleaner heating in such areas. The use of financial incentives requires additional analyses cleaner heating means can also be encouraged of the local context, including cost-effectiveness through legislation that regulates the permitting analysis of the different options. process of new buildings. For instance, new Detailed information on the residential heating buildings might be mandated to be connected sector in Uzbekistan is not available which to central heating networks, when those are impedes policy making. Therefore, MoEEPCC, available, or use a certain share of renewable together with Ministry of Energy, Ministry of energy, including for heating or not allow the Agriculture, and local authorities, could create an use of certain fuels for heating. Cleaner heating action plan to reduce heating emissions based on alternatives could also be promoted by fiscal a dedicated assessment of the heating methods measures such as reduced value added tax used by businesses and population in a target and/or reduced property tax if the property area, for instance, Tashkent and surrounding uses clean or zero-emission heating. areas. Such a study could take the form of a survey ለ Implementing energy efficiency measures. that collects data on key heating characteristics: Improving buildings’ energy efficiency is ለ Type of heating used—from a central or an typically considered a ‘no regrets’ measure as individual source it saves energy, decreases energy bills, and ለ Fuel used for heating (for example, district hea- reduces emissions of both air pollutants and ting, gas, coal, heating oil, biomass, and so on) GHGs. Buildings’ energy efficiency standards are usually set in energy efficiency legislation ለ Heating consumption in natural units or in and/or building codes. Typically, new buildings heating expenses are required to meet high energy efficiency ለ If an individual heating system is used, type standards. However, improving energy and efficiency of the heating system—coal/ efficiency of existing buildings can also be biomass stove or boiler, heating oil radiator, encouraged through a mix of regulatory and electric radiator, air conditioner, and so on financial instruments. For instance, existing ለ Type of building—single or multi-family; buildings of different types might be mandated commercial or residential to achieve certain levels of energy efficiency ለ Energy efficiency of the building—no energy by a given date and these requirements could efficiency implemented, partial energy be coupled with various financial mechanisms efficiency (wall insulation or roof insulation), or targeted at people of different income levels full energy efficiency that reduce the cost of energy efficiency measures. ለ Types of windows—wooden, PVC, aluminum, double glazed, and so on Transition to sustainable heating in Uzbekistan faces several challenges, such as low energy ለ Size of the dwelling/commercial building in m 2 prices, lack of infrastructure, lack of financing, ለ Size of the heated area in m 2 . and behavioral inertia. A comprehensive The suggested study will inform a prioritization response requires long-term policies, regulations, of the alternative heating options and allow infrastructure planning, programs with incentives to design a targeted policy reform to create and financing, communication and outreach, incentives to reduce pollution for the priority Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 39 contributors, both residential and commercial. analysis can identify the cheapest options among An action plan that is based on the study will a variety of alternatives to achieve a certain pol- prioritize cost-efficient interventions to reduce air icy goal—in this case, to reduce emissions of air pollution from heating and create a consultation pollutants and GHGs. Thus, cost-effectiveness platform for main stakeholders for regulation of analysis can be used to provide initial prioritiza- pollution from area sources, including heating. tion of measures to be implemented. The final de- Moreover, economic incentives that could cision on which measures will be actively pursued spur demand for sustainable healing could be by policy makers would also consider issues such developed in parallel to the ongoing work of the as technological availability, need for additional Ministry of Energy on fuel subsidies’ elimination. regulations, financial assistance, protection of vulnerable households, implementation, enforce- Various heating technologies on the market are ment, and monitoring arrangements. Box 2 and less polluting than the use of coal and biomass Box 3 provide summaries of World Bank cost-ef- in inefficient appliances. Therefore, identifying fectiveness analyses that support the design of the optimal option or options to be supported by measures to reduce air pollution from the residen- policies, regulations, and financial assistance is tial heating sector in other Central Asia countries. a key task for policy makers. Cost-effectiveness Box 2: Costs of cleaner residential heating measures in Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic The ongoing World Bank assessment ‘Heating Options Study for Bishkek’ estimated the financial and economic levelized cost of heating (LCOH) for different heating options. Financial and economic LCOHs are common approaches used to evaluate the expenses and investments as well as the economic benefits of switching to cleaner heating options. The assessment then ranked the available alternatives to replacing coal heating in single-family houses (SFHs) with the goal to show which alternatives maximize emission reductions and economic benefits at the least cost. Considering up-front investments needed to switch to a cleaner heating option (the capital expenditure [CAPEX]) and the costs of fuel, operation and maintenance (operational expenditure [OPEX]), and disposal, the financial LCOH for all SFH heating options shows that only electric boilers are financially cheaper than the use of coal for heating in the baseline. This is due to the high up-front expenses to install/connect the alternative heating options. However, the economic LCOH for SFHs that also considers economic benefits from reduced GHG emissions and in turn carbon costs and improved health outcomes, that is, reduced costs for health care, shows all options outperforming the baseline use of coal boilers. While gas options still show higher fuel costs and heat pump options still show higher CAPEX costs, these cost increases compared to the use of coal for heating are exceeded by the savings in carbon emissions and health impacts from PM 2.5 . An alternative heating options ranking, compared to the baseline use of coal for heating in SFH, was performed combining the results from the financial and economic LCOH analyses. 9 For SFHs, electric boilers rank as the top option to replace use of coal for heating, followed by air-to-water (A2W) heat pumps. However, it should be noted that to achieve the full potential of savings a baseline level of building, energy efficiency is needed, which is not the case in all SFHs. Table 4: Ranking of heating options to replace coal in single-family house (SFHs) in Bishkek Household PM 2.5 Financial Economic OPEX CO2 Savings Availability Savings LCOH LCOH Affordability: Potential Overall of Service/ Potential Difference Difference Fuel and Compared to Rank Technology Compared from Coal from Coal Maintenance Coal to Coal Costs All ranks ton CO2 / g PM 2.5 / SFH Options US$/m2 US$/m2 US$/m2 Description weighted year/1,000 US$ m2 / US$ equally New Gas 4.15 (7.20) 3.23 Gazprom 3.69 0.20 3 Boiler service New Gas area 20.96 (0.33) 5.51 0.82 0.04 7 Boiler + EE 40 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Household PM 2.5 Financial Economic OPEX CO2 Savings Availability Savings LCOH LCOH Affordability: Potential Overall of Service/ Potential Difference Difference Fuel and Compared to Rank Technology Compared from Coal from Coal Maintenance Coal to Coal Costs W2W Heat 6.23 (10.47) 2.07 2.98 0.12 4 Pump W2W Heat Pump + EE (Coal to 22.77 (5.21) 2.18 Limited by 0.91 0.04 6 W2W+EE geothermal Scenario) potential W2W Heat Pump + EE (Gas to 20.87 (5.84) 2.25 0.99 0.04 5 W2W+EE Scenario) A2W Heat 5.10 (11.86) 2.02 3.07 0.12 2 Pump + EE Anywhere Electric 1.75 (10.75) 3.06 10.01 0.41 1 Boiler Source: World Bank. Box 3: Costs of cleaner residential heating measures in Kazakhstan The World Bank report ’Clean Air Cool Planet: Integrated Air Quality Management and Greenhouse Gas Reduction for Almaty and Nur-Sultan*—Volume II’ concluded that improved/more efficient coal stoves and boilers in SFHs and switch from coal heating to cleaner heating options in multi-family buildings are the most cost-effective measures to reduce air pollutant and GHG emissions in Almaty and Astana from a public policy perspective. However, for private households to implement cleaner heating measures, the incentive gap between using cheap coal and switching to more expensive alternatives needs to be filled. The report analyzed the fiscal impact of direct subsidies to households to cover up-front (CAPEX) costs for switching to cleaner heating with and without introducing a CO 2 tax. 31 Table 5: Estimated possible fiscal impact of closing the incentive gap for cleaner residential heating in Astana and Almaty, (€, millions) Astana Almaty Without With a carbon Without With a carbon carbon tax of €20 per carbon tax of €18 per tax ton COz tax ton COz Annual existing fossil fuel subsidies implied by the current tariffs for space heating of households and -40.3 -40.3 -268.0 -268.0 enterprises (room for repurposing subsidies) Incentive gap: Annual additional capex costs to households and enterprises for low-pollution space -4.3 -3.2 -9.1 -7.4 heating (over 10 years) Annual budget revenues from a COz tax on 0.0 124.8 0.0 111.8 emissions from space heating Net fiscal impact in the scenario with public financing to close the incentive gap (without -44.6 81.3 -277.1 -163.6 reforming implicit fuel subsidies) Source: GAINS-Policy calculations. Note: Negative numbers = fiscal expenditures. 31 https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/37938. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 41 The study suggests a large potential for policy reforms to bridge the incentive gap while improving fiscal position, efficiency, and quality of heating services in buildings as well as social protection of the citizens of Almaty and Astana. The level of current polluting subsidies in the two cities dwarfs additional subsidies that the study estimated would be needed to encourage households to switch to cleaner heating options. Additional subsidies for up-front investments (CAPEX) to switch to a cleaner heating alternative estimated initially at €9.1 million per year in Almaty and €4.3 million in Astana (both over 10 years) could equalize the annual costs of cleaner heating in buildings with the annual cost of the currently cheapest polluting options—use of coal. This difference between existing ‘brown’ and potential ‘green’ subsidies—though roughly estimated—illustrates a scope for repurposing public expenditures from subsidizing polluting activities to subsidizing investments in more sustainable and efficient heating. On the other side, introducing a CO 2 tax strengthens incentives to switch to cleaner fuels and technologies and raises additional government revenues to help vulnerable households and firms adjust to higher fuel pric- es. In Astana, a carbon tax of €20 per tCO 2 embedded in fossil fuels would not only reduce the need for annual investment subsidies by almost 30 percent but also yield annual revenues of about €125 million per year. In Almaty, a carbon tax of €18 would reduce the need for subsidies by almost 20 percent while yielding annual revenues of about €112 million per year. Therefore, the CO 2 tax would be more than enough to finance addi- tional subsidies for switching to cleaner heating in the two cities. Note: *At the time of publication, Astana was called Nur-Sultan. Key recommendations ለ Develop an action plan for priority interventions and policies to address air pollution from heating informed by a study on fuels and appliances used for residential and commercial heating in a targeted area-for example, Tashkent. 2.4.2.4. PaMs to reduce windblown dust to Uzbek cities might require not only local The AQ assessment for Tashkent showed that and national measures but also transnational more than one-third of PM 2.5 pollution on an measures. annual basis comes from particles transported A specific measure that could reduce the into the city from outside its boundaries— amount of windblown dust transported to windblown dust. In some summer months, Uzbek cities is implementing targeted greening the contribution of windblown dust to PM 2.5 measures. Studies generally agree that greening concentrations is above 50 percent. Therefore, measures can mitigate dust transport into cities; measures to reduce the amount of dust being however, the design of greening measures is transported to the city have to be designed. highly location specific and depends on the However, multiple potential sources of types of greening measures, including species windblown dust can contribute to PM 2.5 selection and space availability for greening, as concentrations — from natural dust events well as water availability to maintain green areas. and dust from barren and agricultural lands to Hence, a city-specific assessment of the potential particles from industrial sources transported of greening measures to reduce the transport for hundreds of kilometers. A particularly of windblown dust is needed. In addition, important source of dust storms in the region greening not only provides air quality benefits is the Aral Sea. In addition, agriculture plays a but also contributes to a healthier environment significant role in the Uzbekistan’s economy and and microclimate. Therefore, piloting greening can also be a source of dust events. Therefore, interventions while systematically analyzing it is important to further analyze the sources of the impacts on air quality could provide useful windblown dust that affect air quality in Tashkent information for scaling up and/or modifying and other Uzbek cities. It is likely that reducing greening interventions to maximize the benefits the amount of windblown dust transported for air quality. 42 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Key recommendations ለ Pilot greening interventions in a city (for example, in Tashkent) and analyze the impacts on air quality. 2.4.3 Stakeholder engagement and communication As the main goal of AQ policies is to protect promote stakeholder engagement. Strengt- human health, the general public should be hened communication could also facilitate the informed not only about the state of air quality operation of an AQ coordination mechanism and to make decisions how to limit exposure to air ultimately improve stakeholder engagement. pollution but also on the rationale behind and Arrangements for sharing data across institutions the progress of PaMs implementation. The can be made, especially if a well-functioning communication of AQ data can take various forms AQ data management system is established as targeting different sections of the population. AQ suggested in Section 2.3.4. There are various uses applications have become increasingly popular, of AQ information within institutions. For example, especially among the younger generation. More automatic alerts can be built into the system, traditional communication channels include and when pollutant limit values are exceeded, installing boards displaying AQ information in an alert could be sent to the local environmental popular areas in the city as well as including department which then might choose to take AQ information in news (for example, in the certain measures. In addition, periodic AQ data weather forecast section) or publishing daily AQ analyses can be shared between institutions that bulletins. Developing AQ forecasting capacities could support PaMs’ implementation and impact will further aid AQ information communication as assessments. For instance, AQ data can be shared it will provide a forward-looking and actionable between MoEEPCC, local authorities, Ministry information to assist in people’s personal of Transport, and Ministry of Internal Affairs on decisions on limiting exposure to air pollution. the impacts from implementing a transport LEZ Communication of AQ data and information in a city. Such type of data sharing facilitates the is also needed at an institutional level and to assessment and calibration of PaMs. Key recommendations ለ Strengthen AQ information communication to the general public. ለ Strengthen AQ information communication across institutions. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 43 2.5. Financing and Investments 2.5.1 AQM Financing that translates environmental objectives into criteria for specific economic activities for A key pillar in the overall AQM system is finan- investment purposes. Green taxonomy is a tool cing of the system’s components. Coordination for policy makers to encourage sustainable with institutions, especially with the Ministry of activities, to prevent ‘greenwashing’ and direct Economy and Finance, is needed to analyze the private sector investments toward sustainable financial needs for improving AQ in the country activities that achieve environmental objectives. and for the potential sources of financing. The Uzbekistan is already working on the development financial needs can be established based on the of green taxonomy. MoEEPCC’s Air Protection objective adopted in a national AQM strategy, Department is part of the governmental working whereas coordination can be strengthened if an group on developing Uzbekistan’s green AQ coordination mechanism is established. taxonomy which is a clear sign that air pollution Financing of the AQM system might come from is an important environmental objective that the a variety of sources and the choice of financing green taxonomy needs to address. depends on the specifics of the policy and An environmental objective included in measure to be implemented. Functions and benchmark green taxonomies (for example, the obligations of regulatory and local authorities EU green taxonomy) is pollution prevention and are usually financed from the budget. However, control. AQ improvement projects will generally equipment and infrastructure improvements can address the environmental objective of pollution also be financed through projects, development prevention and control but can also provide co- programs, concessional financing, and loans. benefits for other environmental objectives The implementation of PaMs can be financed such as climate change mitigation and circular in various ways depending on the specific PaM. economy. The World Bank is supporting the For instance, the private sector could finance establishment of green taxonomy in Uzbekistan installation of emission control equipment, and has proposed one of the taxonomy’s targeted financing and loans could be used environmental objectives to be pollution to incentivize the switch to cleaner heating in prevention and control. 32 households and businesses, and projects and development programs could be utilized to In addition to focusing on key environmental finance clean urban transport and the supporting objectives, the World Bank Guidance Note infrastructure. Public-private partnerships could suggests that Uzbekistan’s green taxonomy is also be explored for the financing of PaMs to guided by three main principles: improve urban transport, whereas energy service ለ Make significant contribution to environmental companies (ESCOs) could be mobilized to deliver objectives. energy efficiency and heating improvements to households and businesses. In addition, ለ Do no significant harm (DNSH) to other innovative financing mechanisms such as green environmental objectives. financing and green loans can be devised to ለ Comply with minimum social safeguards. support PaMs’ implementation. Thus, assuming that pollution prevention Developing green taxonomy rules can also and control is one of the environmental encourage financing of AQ improvement objectives to be included in Uzbekistan’s projects by the private sector. A green taxonomy green taxonomy, any AQ improvement activity is a standardized green classification system and project would also have to meet the 32 World Bank. 2023. Guidance Note on Uzbekistan Green Taxonomy. 44 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan taxonomy’s main principles. The Guidance taxonomy qualitative assessment criteria for Note on Uzbekistan’s Green Taxonomy suggests AQ improvement activities. Table 7 provides that the taxonomy is activity based and at the some sample AQ improvement activities and beginning uses qualitative assessment criteria. suggestions for their assessment against green Table 6 presents some suggestions for green taxonomy criteria. Table 6: Assessment criteria for air quality improvement activities in Uzbekistan’s green taxonomy Environmental objective: Pollution prevention and control Sector: Air quality Main principle Assessment criteria Response ለ Does the activity reduce emissions of air pollutants? or Make significant ለ Does the activity improve data and information Yes or No contribution to availability regarding air quality? (‘Yes’ responses indicate environmental or alignment with principle) objectives ለ Does the activity contribute to improved access to information and improved awareness about air quality? Yes or No ለ Does the activity impede the achievement of other (‘No’ indicates alignment with environmental objectives or does it have negative principle. If ‘Yes’, see criteria DNSH to other impacts on other environmental objectives? below) environmental objectives Yes or No ለ If the activity has negative impacts on other (‘Yes’ classifies the activity as environmental objectives, can this harm be mitigated? ‘amber’) Yes or No Comply with minimum ለ Does/Is it possible for the activity to comply with (‘Yes’ indicates alignment social safeguards minimum social safeguards? with principle) Source: Based on inputs from Guidance note on Uzbekistan Green Taxonomy (World Bank). Table 7: Sample air quality improvement activities in the context of green taxonomy Environmental objective: Pollution prevention and control Sector: Air quality Sector: Air Significant contribution to DNSH Social safeguards quality pollution prevention and control Emission control devices require energy to operate Install, operate, which might increase GHG To ensure significant and maintain emissions depending on the contribution to pollution highly efficient fuel source used for energy prevention, emission control emissions generation. devices should have a minimum control and Emission control devices efficiency requirement. Set minimum standards for automatic reduce emissions of SO2 Set minimum efficiency social safeguards . emission and NOx which are climate requirements based on the reporting coolants. efficiencies of a sample of equipment at Assess the impact of best available emission control key industrial additional energy use for devices on the market . enterprises operating the emission control devices on GHG emissions. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 45 Environmental objective: Pollution prevention and control Sector: Air quality Sector: Air Significant contribution to DNSH Social safeguards quality pollution prevention and control The evaluation of the EU’s IED showed that the BAT approach was successful at significantly cutting air pollutants’ emissions but had a lower impact on GHG emissions and other Sectoral BREFs need to establish environmental objectives (for BAT-associated emission levels Adoption example, water consumption, (AELs). Existing BREFs (for of BATs at circular economy). No Set minimum standards for example, in the EU) could be industrial negative impacts on other social safeguards. used as a benchmark. enterprises environmental objectives Set a requirement for air from BAT adoption was emissions to be within BAT AELs. found, though. If applicable, set additional requirements for GHG emissions reduction and/ or water consumption and/ or waste generation and/or resource efficiency. Since there are different cleaner heating technologies, the impact Some heating technologies on pollution prevention depends are CO2 neutral but on technical specifications contribute to air pollution— of each heating technology. for example, biomass-based Technical specifications of stoves and boilers. Others Promote the various heating appliances are use fossil fuels (for example, use of cleaner available internationally for gas) but reduce air pollution Set minimum standards for heating benchmarking (for example, EU compared to the use of coal social safeguards. alternatives in directives and regulations). and biomass. households Develop a catalogue of cleaner Consider the impact on heating technologies and GHG emissions of different provide minimum technical heating technologies specifications (for example, when developing the appliance efficiency, fuel catalogue of cleaner heating requirements, and emission technologies. levels). Source: Based on inputs from Guidance Note on Uzbekistan Green Taxonomy (World Bank). Key recommendations ለ Establish financing mechanisms for the components of an AQM system. ለ Introduce air quality improvement activities in green taxonomy. 2.5.2 Investments and policy reforms Strengthening the AQM system and improving average concentration in the city to the WHO’s air quality require investments and policy IT1 of 35 µg/m 3 . In addition to investments in reforms. An upcoming World Bank report interventions in key emission sectors, policy estimates that around €690 million of up-front reforms are needed to update and strengthen investments are needed for the key emission the regulatory framework for AQM and facilitate sectors in Tashkent to bring the PM 2.5 annual emission reductions in key sectors. There are a 46 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan number of potential areas where investments facilitate and incentivize the uptake of emission and policy reforms might be needed, but in reduction measures by the private sector. the context of limited resources available, it is The type of investment and consequently prudent to prioritize AQM investments and policy the potential sources of financing of the reforms. investments in the key emission sectors differ. It is essential to invest in a strengthened Emission reduction investments in the industrial regulatory enabling environment for improved sector could focus on financing the adoption AQM in Uzbekistan. An updated regulatory and of green technologies and cleaner production legal framework is the foundation for further and might require a mix of private, public, and developing the AQM system in Uzbekistan—for commercial financing. Low-emission transport instance, updating air quality standards plays would require incentives for cleaner vehicles a key role in the AQM regulatory environment. and transport modes as well as investments in Another important investment area is improving infrastructure that could involve a mix of private, technical capacities and infrastructure for AQM. public, and concessional financing. Similarly, Those could include investments in expanding reducing residential and commercial heating the air quality monitoring network, upgrading air emissions would require incentives for the uptake quality laboratories, strengthening the emission of cleaner heating technologies and investments inventory capacities, and developing AQM in infrastructure that could be achieved by capacities at the national and local levels. public, private, ESCO, and commercial financing. Given the dominant contribution of windblown Ultimately, investments in emission reductions dust to PM 2.5 concentrations as identified in across sectors are what drive air quality the technical assessment for Tashkent, piloting improvement. The abovementioned investments greening measures would require investments and policy reforms can be categorized as ‘soft in analyses for the types and location of investments’ in the sense that they do not directly greening interventions, implementation of those reduce pollutants’ emissions. In addition to those interventions, and infrastructure development ‘soft investments’, direct investments to reduce to support and maintain urban greening that emissions are needed. Those investments are likely to be supported by public and project are likely to require a larger financial resource financing. Moreover, setting up innovative than the ‘soft investments’ and hence, careful financing mechanisms such as green bonds and prioritization is necessary to optimize the cost- green credits and developing a green taxonomy effectiveness of the investments. In any case, for air quality improvement could provide investments in emission reductions in key sectors additional financing options. should go hand in hand with policy reforms that Key recommendations ለ Identify investments and policy reforms for improved air quality. ለ Prioritize the identified investments and policy reforms and secure funding for the prioritized investments. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 47 2.6. Suggested AQM Roadmap Table 8 summarizes the suggested measures are prioritized together with government for AQM improvement in Uzbekistan, focusing stakeholders. Generally, measures that relate on measures where MoEEPCC could play a to updating and strengthening of policies and leading or coordinating role in implementation legislation could be financed by the budget with and highlighting the cross-sectoral nature possible technical assistance support from of implementing air quality improvement development partners, international cooperation measures. Table 8 provides a short description projects, and/or philanthropic organizations. and rationale for the suggested measures, Procurement of equipment for public authorities indicates the priority level for each measure, could be financed from the budget or on a and suggests responsible institutions for project basis through support from development the measures’ implementation and potential partners, international cooperation projects, sources of financing. Measures’ priority levels and philanthropic organizations. Measures that are an indication of how essential they are for concern the private sector could be financed by the functioning of the overall AQM system and the private sector, commercial sector (banks), do not consider readiness and feasibility for public-private partnerships, through fiscal implementation or available financing and human measures (in essence, from the budget) and by resources. The AQM roadmap provides a basis innovative financing mechanisms such as green for dialogue on those issues and discussion of bonds and credits or as part of green taxonomy implementation and financing modalities is the for air quality improvement. Ultimately, a system next step after prioritization of measures from the for financing of air quality improvement projects suggested AQM roadmap is performed together needs to be developed that can efficiently and with government stakeholders. Measures with the transparently manage, utilize, and disburse priority level ‘Immediate’ need to be implemented funding from the different potential sources that as soon as possible and are essential for the might be available. efficient functioning of the overall AQM system. Transport measures are not included in Table Measures with the priority level ‘Immediate to 8 as the recent developments in legislation Medium’ are key for the overall functioning of the are in line with the PaMs discussed in Section AQM system, but their execution might require 2.4.2.2. 33 Additional discussions and support that some of the measures with ‘Immediate’ can be provided for the actual implementation of priority have been implemented first or are being the foreseen measures—classifying vehicles into implemented. Measures with the priority level ecological categories, ensuring the necessary ‘Medium’ are important for the functioning of the capacities for performing periodic technical AQM system but do not have to be implemented inspections, designing the enforcement and as soon as possible and/or would benefit if monitoring network with regard to vehicular measures labeled as ‘Immediate’ or ‘Immediate restrictions in cities, and including the design of to Medium’ have been implemented or are being ecological compensation payments for vehicles. implemented. Implementing the envisioned transport measures, Table 8 provides general suggestions for especially establishing the enforcement and potential sources of financing of each measure; monitoring system, requires financial resources, however, financial arrangements should be the need for which could also be a subject of discussed in greater detail once measures future discussions. 33 Resolution of Cabinet of Ministers of Uzbekistan on control of transport emissions adopted on March 29, 2024: https://lex.uz/ru/docs/6858809. 48 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Table 8: Suggested Roadmap for AQM Improvement in Uzbekistan Suggested Potential sources Measure Description and rationale Priority(*) responsible of financing institutions Air quality monitoring Developing an AQ monitoring network modernization plan is a key step in setting the Public (from budget) scope, objectives, and direction for the development of the AQ monitoring network Technical assistance could be Develop air quality in Uzbekistan. The plan should describe the number of AQ monitoring stations to be MoEEPCC provided through projects of monitoring network deployed, the pollutants to be measured, the locations, and types of the AQ stations. Immediate development partners and/ modernization plan. Based on the scope of AQ monitoring network modernization, the appropriate number Uzhydromet or philanthropic organizations of supporting laboratories, as well as trained staff, can be established. The plan could and/or international also outline the need for update of legislation and/or methodologies and/or procedures. cooperation projects. Public (from budget) The relevant legislation on assessment of air quality through air quality monitoring Update legislation Technical assistance could be would have to be updated based on the adopted AQ monitoring network modernization on the air quality MoEEPCC provided through projects of plan. Procedures for locating AQ monitoring stations should be clearly described, Immediate to monitoring network development partners and/ including both macroscale and microscale sitting requirements for AQ monitoring Medium Uzhydromet in line with the or philanthropic organizations stations. In addition, procedures for the organization of overall air quality assessment modernization plan. and/or international and maintenance of the AQ monitoring network would have to be updated. cooperation projects. Installation of AQ monitoring stations will likely occur over time depending on the Public (from budget) Install air quality scope of AQ monitoring network modernization. Installation of AQ monitoring stations MoEEPCC Project based (including monitoring stations involves, among others, the selection of suitable sites for AQ monitoring stations, Medium projects by development in line with the Uzhydromet the procurement of equipment, the installation of the equipment and supporting partners and philanthropic modernization plan. infrastructure, calibration of the equipment, and sampling and reporting of data. organizations) In parallel with the installation of AQ monitoring stations, the update and/or establishment of AQ laboratories needs to be performed. As a minimum, an AQ Public (from budget) Establish/update monitoring network requires a calibration laboratory where stations are periodically laboratories to support MoEEPCC Project based (including calibrated as well as regional chemical laboratories where additional analyses of the functioning of the Medium projects by development pollutants are performed. The update/setup of AQ laboratories involves, among others, Uzhydromet air quality monitoring partners and philanthropic securing space for the laboratories, if needed, procuring the necessary equipment, network. organizations) installing and calibrating the equipment, training staff to work with the equipment, and accrediting the laboratories to meet international standards. Air quality standards AQ standards are fundamental components in the overall AQM system. AQ standards Public (from budget) are set with the main goal to protect human and ecosystems’ health. Therefore, instead Update national AQ Technical assistance could be of focusing on a long list of air pollutants, international best practices focus on key standards in line with MoH provided through projects of pollutants with the gravest health impact. Other pollutants are dealt with on a case-by- international best Immediate development partners and/ case basis depending on intensity of emission sources, potential exposure, and other MoEEPCC practices; include or philanthropic organizations considerations. The WHO considers PM 2.5 , PM 10, O3 , NO2 , SO2 , and CO as the main air standards for PM 2.5 . and/or international pollutants, causing the majority of health damage. Particular focus is placed on PM 2.5 and hence, it is imperative that Uzbekistan adopts a PM 2.5 standard. cooperation projects. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 49 Suggested Potential sources Measure Description and rationale Priority(*) responsible of financing institutions Emissions inventory The emissions inventory system is the backbone of any AQM system. It is used to determine key emission sources and their contributions to air pollution; support AQM policy making; allow health impact assessment, emissions projections, and Public (from budget) AQ modeling studies; satisfy international reporting requirements; and inform the Update and strengthen Technical assistance could be public and raise awareness. A review of the current setup for compiling emission the emission inventory MoEEPCC provided through projects of inventories in Uzbekistan could identify the gaps, the need for update of emission system to meet Immediate development partners and/ calculation methodologies, needs for resources and technical expertise, involvement Uzhydromet international best or philanthropic organizations of main institutions responsible for sectoral data collection and dissemination, and the practice. and/or international appropriate level of coordination with the GHG inventory and set the level of ambition for the emissions inventory system update. International best practices, including cooperation projects. emissions calculation methodologies, are available and can inform and support the update and strengthening of the emissions inventory process in Uzbekistan. Data management and analysis AQM is largely based on data—data on pollutants’ concentrations, emissions, meteorology, and so on. Expanding the AQ monitoring network and strengthening Public (from budget) the emissions inventory system will increase the needs for data collection, storage, MoEEPCC Establish a processing, analysis, and dissemination. Therefore, a comprehensive and easy-to-use Technical assistance could be Uzhydromet provided through projects of comprehensive and data management system should be put in place to facilitate AQM. A well-functioning Immediate to easy-to-use data data management system can also allow for conducting detailed AQ analyses, unify Medium Ministry of development partners and/ management system. environmental data management, share information within institutions and with other Emergency or philanthropic organizations institutional databases, and disseminate, including interactively, information to the Situations and/or international public. A comprehensive data management system will also support the work of the cooperation projects. suggested Situation Center to be established under MoEEPCC. AQ modeling is a key analytical component of the overall AQM. AQ modeling is heavily based on the input of reliable data and therefore, putting in place a comprehensive data Public (from budget) management system will enable for capacities for AQ modeling to be established. In MoEEPCC Establish needs and addition to having a well-developed data management system, AQ modeling software Technical assistance could be Uzhydromet provided through projects of capacities to perform and technical capacities to perform AQ modeling are also needed and should be Medium development partners and/ AQ modeling, including assessed before setting up AQ capabilities. AQ modeling can be used in various Ministry of forecasting. different ways, most notably to conduct source apportionment studies that identify the Emergency or philanthropic organizations key contributors to air pollutants’ concentrations; AQ forecasting that can serve as both Situations and/or international a decision-making and a public communication tool; and scenario modeling to aid the cooperation projects. choice of optimal AQM PaMs. 50 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Suggested Potential sources Measure Description and rationale Priority(*) responsible of financing institutions AQM policies and planning Public (from budget) A national AQM strategy sets the vision for the scope and direction of efforts to improve Technical assistance could be Develop a national air quality at the national level. It would be beneficial if the process of drafting the AQM provided through projects of Immediate MoEEPCC development partners and/ AQM strategy. strategy is consultative so that buy-in is ensured from a variety of stakeholders— institutions, academia, businesses, and civil society. or philanthropic organizations and/or international cooperation projects Review and update The legal framework should be reviewed and updated in line with the vision for AQM in relevant legislation the country. There might be legal acts or part of legal acts that are no longer aligned Public (from budget) in line with the with the AQM vision and/or there might be a need to draft new/additional legislation to adopted AQM. Pay Technical assistance could be facilitate the implementation of the AQM strategy. MoEEPCC particular attention to Immediate to provided through projects of legislation on pollution For instance, revising pollution fees and taxes to provide clear incentives for enterprises Medium Ministry of Economy development partners and/ fees and taxes and to reduce pollution and improve performance by setting the level of pollution fees and Finance or philanthropic organizations development of green and taxes over the marginal abatement costs could incentivize enterprises to invest and/or international taxonomy for AQ in cleaner production. In addition, developing a section of green taxonomy for AQ cooperation projects. improvement projects. improvement projects could attract funding from additional sources for such projects. Public (from budget) Strengthen Parallel to reviewing national-level legislation, the capacities of local authorities for Technical assistance could be regulations and local MoEEPCC AQM planning could be evaluated and updated where needed. Most developed AQM provided through projects of capacities for AQM Immediate to systems divide the country into AQM zones/agglomerations that are responsible to Regional and city development partners and/ planning, including Medium draft and implement local AQM plans that adopt PaMs to improve air quality in the given authorities or philanthropic organizations establishing AQM territory. and/or international zones/agglomerations. cooperation projects. Emergency measures to address short-term episodes of air pollution adopted by local authorities typically involve actions aimed at reducing pollutant emissions, minimizing Set up a mechanism exposure, and protecting public health. The triggering of emergency air pollution Public (from budget) for local authorities to measures is typic ally based on predefined thresholds or criteria established by authorities. Technical assistance could be implement emergency Emergency measures to respond to short-term air pollution episodes can include several MoEEPCC Immediate to provided through projects of air quality measures ac tions suc h as temporary traffic measures, inc luding the promotion of alternative Regional and city development partners and/ Medium in response to short- transport means, restrictions and bans on using certain fuels in residential and commercial authorities or philanthropic organizations term air pollution buildings, restrictions on industries, and so on. Nevertheless, the design of an emergency and/or international episodes. measure or a mix of measures should be based on a combination of technical analyses, cooperation projects. enabling regulatory frameworks, risk assessments, and public health considerations to identify the most appropriate and location-specific emergency measures. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 51 Suggested Potential sources Measure Description and rationale Priority(*) responsible of financing institutions Air quality is a cross-sectoral issue that requires solid coordination and cooperation Public (from budget) MoEEPCC - lead to efficiently implement PaMs. Appropriate level of cooperation could be achieved institution. However, Technical assistance could be by establishing an AQM coordination mechanism as deemed effective. The AQM Establish an AQM higher-level support provided through projects of coordination mechanism could be with high-level representation and supported by coordination Immediate and buy-in are development partners and/ expert technical working groups or another structure of the coordination mechanism mechanism. needed for the AQM or philanthropic organizations can be set up. The AQM coordination mechanism could be used as a venue to discuss mechanism to be and/or international important AQM issues such as the AQM strategy, the need for update of the legal effective. cooperation projects. framework, government roles and responsibilities, and so on. Public (from budget) Air pollution does not recognize borders and therefore, cross-border cooperation in Technical assistance could be Engage in AQM could facilitate the exchange of data, know-how, and expertise and ultimately provided through projects of international/regional facilitate implementation of PaMs. Becoming a party to key conventions, such as Medium MoEEPCC development partners and/ cooperation in the area CLRTAP, could also contribute to strengthening important AQM processes such as or philanthropic organizations of AQM. updating the emissions inventory system, for example. and/or international cooperation projects. PaMs in the industrial sector The design of the industrial emissions regulations and the permitting process are fundamental in how effective industrial emission reduction policies and control are. Public (from budget) Well-designed permitting process could encourage cleaner industrial production, Technical assistance could be Strengthen industrial reduce emissions, improve resource use, strengthen accountability, and improve provided through projects of emissions regulations, transparency. Consideration needs to be given to aspects such as strengthened process Medium MoEEPCC development partners and/ including the industrial and capacities for setting of ELVs, emissions monitoring and reporting, use of emission or philanthropic organizations permitting process. control technologies, and integration of all environmental aspects in permitting. The EU and/or international experience in managing industrial emissions could serve as a potential benchmark for cooperation projects. the strengthening of the industrial emissions regulations in Uzbekistan. Private (enterprises could be Mandate the Emissions control and abatement technologies are end-of-pipe solutions but could required to install emission installation, operation, be made mandatory for industries with large emissions (for example, category I and controls as part of their and maintenance II industries), which are not able to switch to zero-emission production processes. Immediate— permits) of highly efficient Emissions can be reduced by a large factor if efficient emissions controls are installed, the activity emissions control and operated, and maintained properly. Automatic emission reporting, on the other hand, can MoEEPCC Commercial (loans for is currently automatic emission ensure transparency and immediate feedback on the efficiency and use of emissions installation of emission ongoing. 34 reporting equipment control equipment. Requirements for the installation, operation, and maintenance controls at enterprises) at key industrial of emissions control and emission reporting equipment could also be included in the Green financing (bonds, enterprises. setting of ELVs and/or in industrial permits. credits) 34 Pursuant to Presidential Decree No. 81 and Presidential Resolution No. 171 dated May 31, 2023. 52 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Suggested Potential sources Measure Description and rationale Priority(*) responsible of financing institutions Promote cleaner Public (through fiscal industrial production measures) through regulatory (for MoEEPCC example, stricter ELVs, The most efficient industrial emissions management systems provide both regulatory Market based (in the case of adoption of BAT), fiscal requirements to limit emissions but also incentives for enterprises to reduce emissions Ministry of market-based instruments) (for example, progres- through a variety of instruments—fiscal and/or market based. Immediate to Investment, Technical assistance could be sive pollution fees and Medium Industry and Trade Inter-ministerial and stakeholder discussions will be needed to adopt the most relevant provided through projects of charges, carbon tax, approach to promote cleaner industrial production in Uzbekistan. Ministry of Economy development partners and/ targeted financing), and Finance or philanthropic organizations and/or market-based and/or international instruments (for exam- cooperation projects. ple, ETS). PaMs in the residential heating sector The conducted AQ assessment for Tashkent showed that heating on solid fuels (for example, coal, biomass) contributed up to 45 percent to PM 2.5 pollution in some winter months. Detailed information on the heating sector is not available and Identify priority therefore, MoEEPCC, together with the Ministry of Energy and local authorities, interventions and could commission a study to assess the heating methods used by the population policies to address air and by commercial actors in a target area—for instance, Tashkent. This study could Public (from budget) pollution from heating inform an action plan for sustainable heating addressing key challenges, including Ministry of Energy, Technical assistance could be informed by a study on low energy prices, lack of infrastructure, lack of financing, and behavioral inertia, Immediate to MoEEPCC, Ministry provided through projects of fuels and appliances and prioritizing the cost-efficient interventions to reduce air pollution from heating. Medium of Agriculture, and development partners and/ used for residential This action plan will create a consultation platform for main stakeholders for regulation or philanthropic organizations local authorities and commercial of pollution from heating. Economic incentives that could spur create demand for and/or international heating in a targeted sustainable healing taking into account air pollution reduction criteria could be developed cooperation projects. area—for example, in parallel to the ongoing work of Ministry of Energy on fuel subsidies elimination. Tashkent. Inter-institutional cooperation and coordination could inform the adoption of PaMs in the heating sector such as improving the quality of fuels used for heating, improving the efficiency of heating appliances, switching to cleaner heating alternatives, and implementing energy efficiency measures. PaMs to reduce windblown dust Analyzing the results from the AQ assessment performed for Tashkent as well as Public (from budget) the wind patterns in the city could inform the selection of areas where greening Project based (including interventions can be performed with the goal to reduce dust transport to the city. The projects by development Pilot greening impact on air quality can then be tracked using AQ monitoring, modeling, and other partners and philanthropic interventions in a adequate analytical tools. MoEEPCC organizations) city (for example, Immediate The results from the pilot greening interventions can inform future greening measures Uzhydromet Technical assistance could be Tashkent) and analyze Medium to improve air quality in cities. Local authorities provided through projects of the impact on air quality In parallel, it is important to further analyze the sources of windblown dust that impact development partners and/ air quality in Tashkent and other Uzbek cities to design adequate PaMs. The origins of or philanthropic organizations dust can be studied by analyzing performing chemical source apportionment studies and/or international and/or by conducting back-trajectory modeling. cooperation projects. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 53 Suggested Potential sources Measure Description and rationale Priority(*) responsible of financing institutions Stakeholder engagement and communication Public (from budget) Support AQ information communication using various means: dedicated website(s), AQ apps, boards displaying AQ information in popular areas in the city, including AQ Project based (including information in news (for example, in the weather forecast section) and publishing daily projects by development AQ bulletins. Developing AQ forecasting capacities will further aid AQ information partners and philanthropic Strengthen AQ communication as it will provide a forward-looking and actionable information to assist organizations) information Immediate to MoEEPCC communication to the in people’s personal decisions on limiting exposure to air pollution. Medium Uzhydromet Technical assistance could be general public. Some AQ information communication (for example, from AQ monitoring stations) provided through projects of can be established relatively quickly, whereas for other types of communication (for development partners and/ example, AQ forecasting), additional capabilities as described in this roadmap should or philanthropic organizations be established first. and/or international cooperation projects. Public (from budget) Set up channels for AQ information communication across institutions for various Project based (including potential uses such as projects by development partners and philanthropic Strengthen AQ ለ Alerts and notifications when pollutant limit values have been exceeded, organizations) information MoEEPCC ለ Periodic reports on the state of AQ, and Medium communication across Uzhydromet Technical assistance could be institutions. ለ Periodic reports to assess the impact of PaMs implementation in specific cases. provided through projects of development partners and/ Some of the advanced inter-institutional AQ information communication might require or philanthropic organizations a functioning data management system. and/or international cooperation projects. AQM financing Public (from budget) Financing the components of the AQM system can come from a variety of sources— Project based (including both budgetary and external. However, the financing needs for supporting the AQM projects by development system have to be established to support analysis of where the financing might come partners and philanthropic Establish financing from. The financial needs can be established based on the ambition adopted in a organizations) mechanisms for the Ministry of Economy national AQM strategy. After the financial needs are estimated, financing mechanisms Medium components of an and Finance Technical assistance could be for the components of the AQM system can be established in close cooperation with AQM system. provided through projects of the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Green taxonomy rules and innovative financing development partners and/ mechanisms such as green financing and green loans could also be considered to or philanthropic organizations support PaMs’ implementation. and/or international cooperation projects. 54 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Suggested Potential sources Measure Description and rationale Priority(*) responsible of financing institutions AQM investments and policy reforms Policy reforms are needed to update and strengthen the regulatory framework for AQM and facilitate emission reductions in key sectors. There are a number of potential areas where investments and policy reforms might be needed, but in the Public (from budget) context of limited resources available, it is prudent to prioritize AQM investments and policy reforms. Both ‘soft’ investments and policy reforms in the sense that Technical assistance could be Prioritize investments provided through projects of they do not directly and direct investments to reduce emissions from key sources and policy reforms for Immediate MoEEPCC development partners and/ are needed need to improve air quality. Investments in emission reductions across improved air quality. or philanthropic organizations sectors are likely to require a larger financial resource than the ‘soft’ investments and hence, careful prioritization is necessary to optimize the cost-effectiveness and/or international of the investments. In any case, investments in emission reductions in key sectors cooperation projects. should go hand in hand with policy reforms that facilitate and incentivize the uptake of emission reduction measures by the private sector. Note: * Measures with the priority level ‘Immediate’ need to be implemented as soon as possible and are essential for the efficient functioning of the overall AQM system. Measures with the priority level ‘Immediate to Medium’ are key for the overall functioning of the AQM system, but their execution might require that some of the measures with ‘Immediate’ priority have been implemented first or are being implemented. Measures with the priority level ‘Medium’ are important for the functioning of the AQM system but do not have to be implemented as soon as possible and/or would benefit if measures labeled as ‘Immediate’ or ‘Immediate to Medium’ have been implemented or are being implemented. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 55 2.7. Discussion: Short-Term Priority Actions The suggested AQM roadmap might serve as a air quality and consequently protecting the platform for further dialogue with government health of citizens. Therefore, this chapter authorities on setting up a holistic and suggests potential short-term actions that can effective AQM system in Uzbekistan. The AQM be implemented as a priority in the next one roadmap suggests a number of measures for to two years and highlights links with recently each component of the AQM system to support issued Presidential decrees that have provisions this discussion. However, it is recognized that for improved AQM and for implementation of authorities have an obligation to act on improving sectoral PaMs (Table 9). Table 9: Suggested short-term priority actions Suggested Potential sources Measure Rationale for prioritization in the short term responsible of financing institutions AQM legislation, policies and planning PM 2.5 is the air pollutant with the greatest damage Public (from budget) to human health and hence, it is imperative that Technical assistance Uzbekistan adopts a PM 2.5 standard. could be provided Update national AQ In addition, adopting a national PM 2.5 standard through projects of MoH standards to include will support the implementation of the measure development partners MoEEPCC standards for PM 2.5 . for warning of the population for fine particles and/or philanthropic pollution during dust storms as envisioned in the organizations and/ Presidential decree on the implementation of the or international Uzbekistan 2030 strategy. 35 cooperation projects. Public (from budget) A national AQM strategy sets the vision for the Technical assistance scope and direction of efforts to improve air could be provided quality at the national level. The AQM strategy MoEEPCC through projects of Develop a national could include provisions for the strengthening development partners AQM strategy. of key components of the AQM cycle such as AQ Uzhydromet and/or philanthropic monitoring, emission inventory compilation, and organizations and/ reporting as well as detailed PaMs for the key or international sectors contributing to air pollution. cooperation projects. Instead of focusing on a long list of air pollutants, the reformed system could focus on the key Public (from budget) pollutants in terms of impact of health. To Technical assistance provide clear incentives for enterprises to reduce could be provided Reform legislation pollution and improve performance pollution, through projects of on pollution fees and fees and taxes should be set over the marginal MoEEPCC development partners taxes (compensation abatement costs. and/or philanthropic payments). Implementation of this measure will support organizations and/ efforts to update compensation payments as or international described in Resolution 202 of the Council of cooperation projects. Ministers from April 12, 2021. 35 Presidential decree “About State program for implementing the Uzbekistan 2030 strategy” from February 21, 2024: https://uza.uz/ru/ posts/o-gosudarstvennoy-programme-po-realizacii-strategii-uzbekistan-2030-v-god-podderzhki-molodezhi-i-biznesa_570600. 56 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Suggested Potential sources Measure Rationale for prioritization in the short term responsible of financing institutions Air quality is a cross-sectoral issue that Public (from budget) requires solid coordination and cooperation to MoEEPCC Technical assistance efficiently implement PaMs. Appropriate level of could be provided cooperation could be achieved by establishing Cabinet of Establish an AQM through projects of an AQM coordination mechanism. The AQM Ministers coordination development partners coordination mechanism could be used as a President’s mechanism. and/or philanthropic venue to discuss important AQM issues such as Administra- organizations and/ the national AQM strategy, the need for update tion or international of the legal framework, government roles and cooperation projects. responsibilities, and so on. PaMs in the industrial sector The design of the industrial emissions regulations and the permitting process are Public (from budget) fundamental in how effective industrial emission reduction policies and control are. Well-designed Technical assistance Strengthen permitting process could encourage cleaner could be provided industrial emissions industrial production, reduce emissions, improve MoEEPCC through projects of regulations, resource use, strengthen accountability, and development partners including the improve transparency. and/or philanthropic industrial permitting organizations and/ process. Implementation of this measure could also or international support the development of the proposed cooperation projects. methodological manual on the calculation of GHG emissions by category I and II enterprises. Emissions control and abatement technologies are end-of-pipe solutions but could be made mandatory for industries with large emissions Private (enterprises Mandate the (for example, category I and II industries), could be required installation, which are not able to switch to zero-emission to install emission operation, and production processes. Emissions can be controls as part of maintenance of reduced by a large factor if efficient emissions their permits) highly efficient controls are installed, operated, and maintained emissions control MoEEPCC Commercial (loans properly. Automatic emission reporting, on and automatic for installation of the other hand, can ensure transparency and emission reporting emission controls at immediate feedback on the efficiency and use equipment at enterprises) of emissions control equipment. Requirements key industrial Green financing for the installation, operation, and maintenance enterprises. (bonds, credits) of emissions control and emission reporting equipment could also be included in the setting of ELVs and/or in industrial permits. PaMs in the transport sector Coordination with relevant institutions and local analyses could inform the choice of transport MoEEPCC PaMs to be adopted: vehicle and fuel standards, Public (from budget) vehicle measures, low-emission urban transport, Ministry of Establish a work plan Transport Technical assistance and establishment of LEZs. While the main and coordinate with could be provided jurisdiction on the implementation of those Ministry relevant institutions through projects of measures falls on other institutions, MoEEPCC of Internal to advance development partners can take an active role in coordinating the Affairs legislation on and/or philanthropic process. reducing transport Ministry of organizations and/ Implementation of this measure will support Energy emissions. or international MoEEPCC on fulfilling its obligations to facilitate Local cooperation projects. emission reductions from the transport sector as authorities described in Presidential Decree 171 of May 31, 2023. 36 36 Presidential decree “On measures for the efficient organization of work of the Ministry of Ecology, Environmental Protection and Climate Change” from May 31, 2023: https://lex.uz/ru/docs/6479136. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 57 Suggested Potential sources Measure Rationale for prioritization in the short term responsible of financing institutions PaMs in the heating sector The AQ assessment for Tashkent showed that heating on solid fuels (for example, coal, biomass) Identify priority contributed up to 45 percent to PM 2.5 pollution interventions and in some winter months. Detailed information on Public (from budget) policies to address MoEEPCC the heating sector is not available and therefore, Technical assistance air pollution from MoEEPCC, together with the Ministry of Energy Ministry of could be provided heating informed and local authorities, could commission a study Energy through projects of by a study on fuels to assess the heating methods used by the popu- Ministry of development partners and appliances lation and by commercial actors in a target area— Agriculture and/or philanthropic used for residential for instance, Tashkent. This study could inform organizations and/ and commercial Local an action plan for sustainable heating addressing or international heating in a targeted authorities key challenges, including low energy prices, lack cooperation projects. area—for example, of infrastructure, lack of financing, and behavior- Tashkent. al inertia, and prioritizing the cost-efficient inter- ventions to reduce air pollution from heating. PaMs to reduce windblown dust Public (from budget) Analyzing the results from the AQ assessment Project based performed for Tashkent as well as the wind (including projects by patterns in the city could inform the selection development partners Pilot greening and philanthropic of areas where greening interventions can be interventions in a MoEEPCC performed with the goal to reduce dust transport organizations) city (for example, Uzhydromet Technical assistance to the city. The impact on air quality can then Tashkent) and Local could be provided be tracked using AQ monitoring, modeling, and analyze the impact authorities through projects of other adequate analytical tools. on air quality. development partners The results from the pilot greening interventions and/or philanthropic can inform future greening measures to improve organizations and/ air quality in cities. or international cooperation projects. Stakeholder engagement and communication Support AQ information communication using various means: dedicated website(s), AQ apps, boards displaying AQ information in popular ar- eas in the city, including AQ information in news (for example, in the weather forecast section), Public (from budget) and publishing daily AQ bulletins. Developing Project based AQ forecasting capacities will further aid AQ (including projects by information communication as it will provide a development partners forward-looking and actionable information to and philanthropic Strengthen AQ assist in people’s personal decisions on limiting organizations) information exposure to air pollution. MoEEPCC Technical assistance communication to Some AQ information communication (for exam- Uzhydromet could be provided the general public. ple, from AQ monitoring stations) can be estab- through projects of lished relatively quickly, whereas for other types development partners of communication (for example, AQ forecasting), and/or philanthropic additional capabilities as described in this road- organizations and/ map should be established first. or international Implementation of the measure will support cooperation projects. warning of the population for fine particles pol- lution during dust storms as envisioned in the Presidential decree on the implementation of the Uzbekistan 2030 strategy. 37 37 Presidential decree “About State Program for Implementing the Uzbekistan 2030 Strategy” from February 21, 2024: https://uza.uz/ru/posts/o-gosudarstvennoy-programme-po-realizacii-strategii-uzbekistan-2030-v-god-podderzhki-molodezhi-i- biznesa_570600. 58 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan In addition to the suggested short-term priority dust storms. In addition, the decree stipulates that actions in Table 7, recently published decrees implementing dust control measures becomes call for the short-term implementation of mandatory for construction sites with areas over various other AQM measures. MoEEPCC has 500 m 2. Furthermore, the decree mandates a been tasked to develop a methodological manual set of transport measures to be implemented for GHG emission estimation of category I and II in Tashkent such as restricting movement of enterprises. This methodological manual could cargo vehicles (over 10 tons) in peak hours and potentially be expanded to cover air pollutants, introducing a car-free day at least one working day thus supporting the strengthening of the ELV a month. Moreover, the most impactful measure setting process. Moreover, the Resolution of the that the decree envisions is the staged restriction Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan of the use of transport vehicles not meeting the “On measures to  reduce the negative impact of Euro 5 emission standard in Tashkent, Nukus, and vehicles on atmospheric air” provides for the main regional cities by 2030. establishment of vehicle emissions’ monitoring Improving air quality is a long-term task; posts in cities to detect and restrict the however, the suggested short-term actions movement of vehicles not meeting the existing described above could initiate a comprehensive vehicle emission standards. Implementation of process of effective AQM that establishes this measure could inform the need to revise strong legal framework and achieves emission vehicle emission standards to reduce emissions reductions from key sources. As previously of harmful air pollutants. mentioned, ensuring an enabling regulatory The most recent Presidential decree on the framework for AQM is key for the sustainable and implementation of the Uzbekistan 2030 systematic improvement of air quality. However, strategy38 provides for the immediate imple- the measures that directly reduce emissions are mentation of measures related to dust and the ones that bring about the actual air quality transport emission reductions. The decree improvement. Therefore, the suggested short- provides for establishing regional alert systems to term priority actions are a combination of ‘soft’ warn the population of PM pollution as a result of PaMs and PaMs that directly reduce emissions. 38 Presidential decree “About State Program for Implementing the UZBEKISTAN 2030 Strategy” from February 21, 2024: https://uza.uz/ru/posts/o-gosudarstvennoy-programme-po-realizacii-strategii-uzbekistan-2030-v-god-podderzhki-molodezhi-i- biznesa_570600. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 59 Conclusions and a Way Forward This report consists of a technical assessment Embassy’s automatic air quality monitoring of air quality in Tashkent using state-of-the- stations shows a 93 percent fit of the modeled art modeling tools, followed by a suggestion and monitored data. Therefore, the modeled for the AQM roadmap to contribute to reforms concentrations capture both the seasonal and and support the development of a long-term spatial variations of air pollution in Tashkent as and holistic AQM vision. The findings from the reported by the air quality monitoring networks. technical assessment for Tashkent and the This underlines the robustness of the conducted main components of the AQM roadmap are modeling and hence the reliability of the study’s summarized below. findings. The technical assessment for Tashkent compiled Windblown dust—particles carried by wind into all available data and information for the main Tashkent from dust storms, adjoining areas PM 2.5 emissions sources in the Tashkent airshed such as agricultural and open fields, and a and mapped those sources at a spatial resolution variety of emission sources outside the studied of approximately 1 by 1 km and a temporal airshed — has the highest contribution to annual resolution of 1 hour. This dynamic emissions map, average PM 2.5 concentrations. The contribution coupled with 3D meteorological gridded data from of windblown dust to PM 2.5 concentrations the WRF model, was used in chemical transport is the highest in the summer months when modeling with the CAMx modeling system to concentrations are generally lower. Additional simulate the dispersion of PM 2.5 pollution over the research on the origins of windblown dust that airshed and to identify the contributions of key is transported to Tashkent as well as on the emissions sources to PM 2.5 concentrations. 39 feasibility of implementing greening measures to PM 2.5 concentrations in Tashkent peak in mitigate the effects of windblown dust on PM 2.5 the winter months and substantially exceed concentrations in the city is needed to design international air quality standards — for instance, appropriate abatement measures. the annual average PM 2.5 concentration in Combustion of fuels for heating, especially coal, Tashkent is above 30 µg/m 3 which exceeds over is the leading contributor to PM 2.5 concent- six times the WHO’s annual average guideline rations in the winter in Tashkent — accounting of 5 µg/m 3 . This study estimated that around for nearly 45 percent of PM 2.5 concentrations in 3,000 premature deaths can be attributed to the city in some winter months. In addition, the current levels of PM 2.5 pollution in Tashkent. As modeling demonstrated that the majority of coal much as there are unfavorable meteorological use occurs outside of the urban area. Thus, coal conditions limiting the dispersion of air pollutants combustion even outside Tashkent’s urban area in Tashkent in the winter, such as low wind speeds has a significant impact on PM 2.5 concentrations and low mixing heights, anthropogenic sources in the city boundaries. PM 2.5 pollution in Tashkent have an important contribution to air pollution. peaks in the winter months and thus, given Overall, comparing the modeled PM 2.5 concent- the significant contribution of heating to PM 2.5 rations from this study with the monitored concentrations, reducing the emissions from this concentrations from Uzhydromet’s and US sector is a priority. 39 As mentioned previously, emissions (the substances emitted directly from different sources) do not translate directly into concentrations (the pollution the population is exposed to). Therefore, a source with high emissions might not affect concentrations as much as a source that has lower emissions with more unfavorable dispersion characteristics (for example, low height of emissions’ release). 60 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Transport is the third largest contributor to heating means. The applicability, costs, and PM 2.5 concentrations in Tashkent and is the implementation modalities of these technical second most important anthropogenic source approaches to reduce heating emissions should of PM 2.5 pollution. The contribution of the be further studied. In addition, the use of solid industrial sector (heavy and light industries fuels for heating in the commercial sector should combined) is relatively stable throughout the be assessed in detail to design appropriate year at about 12–13 percent. The other sources PaMs to limit the use of polluting fuels in the of PM 2.5 pollution in Tashkent have generally lower commercial sector. Measures to reduce transport contributions. Urban dust from construction emissions include setting standards for vehicles activities and resuspended dust from roads and fuels, regulating vehicle imports, improving contribute about 6 percent to annual average the attractiveness and emission profile of PM 2.5 concentrations in Tashkent. public transport, incentivizing nonmotorized means for urban mobility, and implementing a Tackling the sources of air pollution in LEZ. Cooperation and coordination of relevant Tashkent and other Uzbek cities requires the institutions are necessary for identifying implementation of emission reduction PaMs appropriate transport PaMs in the Uzbek in the key sectors responsible for air pollution. context. Strengthening the industrial permitting Implementing PaMs to reduce pollutant process, adopting BATs, and incentivizing cleaner emissions is at the core of AQM systems. production are the main measures to reduce However, the AQM system works efficiently only emissions from the industrial sector. if all components of the system are developed, including technical and financial components, Nevertheless, it is important that sectoral PaMs in addition to PaMs. The AQM roadmap thus and investments run parallel to the strengthen- outlines and elaborates on priority measures ing of the overall AQM system in the country as in the short and medium term to strengthen the components of the AQM system can inform overall AQM in Uzbekistan and bring it in line with where investments are needed and can provide components of an effective AQM system. The the necessary information for evaluating the AQM roadmap suggests actions in the areas of impact, effectiveness, and the need for cali- expanding air quality monitoring, strengthening bration of those investments. The next step is air quality legislation, namely setting standards, discussing the measures suggested in the AQM and developing AQM policies and technical roadmap within MoEEPCC and in government to capacities as well as approaches to financing agree on priority measures to invest in. Once a the identified measures. Moreover, the AQM list of priority measures is agreed upon, assess- roadmap suggests approaches to streamline ment of implementation modalities, quantifi- stakeholder engagement and inter-ministerial cation of costs, and identification of sources of coordination and identifies potential priority financing could follow. These processes might areas for investments in air quality improvement. eliminate some measures from the initial list due to currently unsurmountable implementation Improving air quality requires policy reforms and barriers or prohibitively high costs. However, it is investments in emission reduction measures important that clear timelines and institutions re- across sectors. Reducing emissions from the sponsible for the implementation of the final list heating sector typically involves improving the of measures are established so that the imple- quality of fuels used, improving the efficiency mentation of PaMs brings the expected benefits of heating appliances, implementing energy of improved air quality and reduced GHGs. efficiency measures, and switching to cleaner Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 61 Annex 1. Methodology and Data Used This annex describes the approaches to emissions in this study. Figure A1.1 provides a schematic calculations and photochemical modeling used illustration of the methodology used in this study. Figure A1.1: Schematic illustration of the study’s methodology Defining airshed boundaries Emissions functions Emission estimates (spatial and temporal) Sectoral activity data, CAMx High-res gridded GIS data layers data layers CAMx model Modeled concentrations (hourly, monthly, annual) WRF model High-res 3D gridded data processing meteo data Comparison between Tool for modeled and monitored evidence-based concentrations decision-making AQ data processing Aggregated hourly, monthly, Model and analysis annual concentrations calibration and validation Analysis of source contributions to air pollution Source: World Bank. Definition of the airshed’s boundaries Figure A1.2: Tashkent’s airshed An initial task was to define the area to be studied, that is, the airshed, in a way that captures emissions dispersion from sources that possibly affect air quality in Tashkent. Geo- scanning of Tashkent and the surrounding area using Google Earth was performed to identify potential emissions sources. The selected airshed spans 60 x 40 grids with a total area of about 2,400 km 2 (Figure A1.2). The area covers the main Tashkent city area and the neighboring regions with industrial estates, brick kilns, quarries, the existing airport, the new airport Source: World Bank and OpenStreetMap. under construction, and waste management Note: Solid lines represent primary roads, dashed line— facilities—sources that might have an impact on international border. air quality in Tashkent. 62 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Since the spatial grid resolution for this study is ለ Data from Uzstat, including data on freight 0.01°; that is, each grid is equivalent to 1 km2, and passenger movement and number of all the collated information and analyzed results registered vehicles. from the study are maintained in standard GIS- ለ Information from TashTeploCentral (TTC) and ready formats at this grid resolution. The GIS TashTeploEnergo (TEC) 40 on the state, future formats also allow for 3D modeling techniques to development, and modernization of the district be used. Hence, the following key data layers for heating network in Tashkent. air pollution analysis are available for each grid cell of the defined airshed: In addition, the study utilized information from a number of global databases listed below: ለ Meteorological data layer ለ AirNow. The US Department of State’s web- ለ Population layer based platform for publishing air quality data ለ Road network layer from US EPA reference grade monitoring stations deployed at US embassies around ለ Level of urbanization layer the world. Data were obtained from the US ለ Land use layer Embassy air quality monitoring station in ለ Topography layer Tashkent. ለ Points of commercial activity layer (industries, ለ IEA. Energy policy review for Uzbekistan, hospitals, hotels, fuel stations, malls, markets, including data on energy balance, fuels used, office complexes, banks, cafes, restaurants, district heating and transport. convenience stores, and so on). ለ STATISTA. A commercial data service The high-resolution layers with key data allowed site, which provides information on vehicle the estimation of emissions for each grid, thus sales, registration by vehicle type and year, enabling the creation of a spatially and temporally population, and GDP. dynamic emissions map for the airshed (see ለ OpenStreetMap (OSM) database. Used for Chapter I.3). The data from the resulting air information about the road network, covering pollution modeling are also available for each grid highways, arterial, and feeder roads as well cell of the studied airshed and allow to spatially as for information about commercial activity and temporally present the study’s results (see points such as hotels, hospitals, apartment Chapter I.4). complexes, industries, parking lots, fuel stations, malls, markets, office and commercial Data resources complexes, banks, cafes, restaurants, and To achieve high-resolution data and allow for convenience stores. dynamic spatial and temporal emission estimates ለ European Space Agency (ESA)’s Global and pollution modeling, this study used various Human Settlements (GHS) Program. Used sources of data—a combination of locally for information on the built-up urban area in obtained data, data from global databases and the airshed for the years of 1975, 1990, 2000, published literature. Moreover, satellite data and and 2014. data from globally recognized models were used to strengthen the foundations for the modeling ለ LANDSCAN program. Provided information conducted in this study. on gridded population at a 30-second resolution for the entire city airshed. This Locally obtained data included the following: database uses official estimates from the ለ Air quality monitoring data from Uzbekistan’s respective governments at the district and Center of Hydrometeorological Services ward levels, which is further segregated to (Uzhydromet), including data from the two finer grids using information on commercial, reference automatic air quality stations in land use, and night light data fields. Tashkent. 40 Uzbekistan Tashkent District Heating Modernization: Stakeholder Engagement Plan. June 2018. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 63 ለ FlightStats. A commercial data service, characteristics of municipal solid waste;43 and which provides information on domestic and ለ Public transport information used for international flight schedules for airports in the assumptions in modal splits in Tashkent. 44 airshed. ለ Google Earth. Used for information on Emissions calculations features of interest, identified while scanning The emission calculations utilized data from the airshed, for which GIS fields are not readily the different sources, described below, as well available. as expert judgment for spatially and temporally ለ MOZART/WACCM modeling system. Used distributing emissions across the airshed. The for the analysis of the boundary conditions— emissions calculations’ methodology for the determining the pollutant fluxes from main emissions sources is described in the surrounding areas into the defined airshed. sections below. ለ WRF modeling system. All meteorological Heating data were processed through the WRF The main activity data needed for the estimation modeling system at a spatial resolution of 0.01° of heating emissions are the energy consumption and at a one-hour temporal resolution. for heating by fuels and the types of heating ለ Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interac- appliances used. Due to the lack of official data tions and Synergies (GAINS) model. An on those, the heating emissions estimates used a emission factors database was extracted from number of data sources to spatially and temporally the GAINS modeling system for the baseline distribute emissions as accurately as possible. emissions inventory. With regard to residential heating, Tashkent ለ Washington University in St. Louis. The has the largest district heating network in university runs a program for long-term PM 2.5 Uzbekistan, but according to IEA, district heating concentration data based on a global chemical meets about 40 percent of total heating demand transport model coupled with satellite in the city. 45 Therefore, this study assumes that retrievals. buildings in Tashkent that are not connected to Relevant data from published literature were also the district heating network (see Figure A1.3, retrieved, including top) use individual heating systems. Due to lack of detailed local data on residential heating, the ለ Industry data, including information on estimated final consumption in the residential industries per district in Tashkent41 and the sector in an IEA report46 was used as a proxy for TPP plant;42 the residential heating methods in Tashkent (see ለ Waste data, including composition and Figure A1.3, bottom). 41 Tolkacheva, G. A. 2007. “Problems of Air Quality in Tashkent City.” Environmental Simulation Chambers: Application to Atmospheric Chemical Processes : 379–392. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/1-4020-4232-9_32. Shardakova, L., and L. Usmanova. 2006. “Assessment of the Impact of Industrial Sources on Urban Air Quality in Tashkent.” Air, Water and Soil Quality Modelling for Risk and Impact Assessment: 125–134. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4020-5877-6_11. 42 Matjanov, E. 2019. “Gas Turbine Efficiency Enhancement Using Absorption Chiller.” Case study for Tashkent CHP. Energy. https://www. sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544219323205?via%3Dihub. 43 Tursunov, O., and N. Abduganiev. 2019. “A Comprehensive Study on Municipal Solid Waste Characteristics for Green Energy Recovery in Urta-Chirchik: A Case Study of Tashkent Region.” Materials Today: Proceedings: 67–71. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ article/abs/pii/S2214785319337915?via%3Dihub. 44 Berdiyorov, A., et al. 2021. “A Sustainable Model of Urban Public Mobility in Uzbekistan.” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1315/822/1/012008 45 IEA. 2022. Uzbekistan 2022: Energy Policy Review. https://www.iea.org/reports/uzbekistan-2022. 46 Ibid. 64 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Figure A1.3: District heating network in Tashkent (top) and final consumption in the residential sector by fuel (bottom) 9% 2% 4% Natural Gas 10% Electricity low quality Oil 75% District heating Coal Source: TTC, TEC (left), IEA (right). The modeling assumes that the need for made based on reviewing transport reports for residential heating is present when hourly Tashkent. 47 Thus, it was assumed that 10 percent ambient air temperatures are below 15°C and of the total cargo moved in Uzbekistan passed heating needs intensify the lower the hourly through Tashkent airshed and 26 percent of the ambient temperatures are. It is also assumed that total passenger trips in the country happened in when coal is used for residential heating, the coal Tashkent airshed. is combusted in standard heating stoves with no To spatially and temporally represent emissions emissions control. The emissions factor for the from road transport and in the absence of traffic coal stoves with no emissions control was taken count data at different locations in Tashkent, a from the GAINS database and equaled 480 g/GJ. number of assumptions had to be made about In addition to residential heating, information the traffic flows in the city. The detailed, high- from MoEEPCC provided at a later stage in the resolution layers of the road network, population, technical assessment process suggests that urbanization levels, and points of commercial there are a number of greenhouses outside interest were used to simulate traffic flows in Tashkent’s urban area that use coal and in some the Tashkent airshed by developing traffic flow cases fuel oil. More data and information are calculations as functions of a combination of needed to comprehensively include the green- parameters. For instance, heavy-duty traffic was houses in the emission inventory and modeling. assumed to use the primary roads and travel to Particular needs are establishing the location and from the different industries in and around of the greenhouses, the types and amounts of the city and private vehicle traffic was primarily fuels used, and the types of heating appliances. flowing to and from points of interest (office complexes, commercial areas, hospitals, and so Road transport on). In terms of temporal distribution of traffic The main source of road transport data was flows, morning and afternoon rush hours were the data on transported cargo and passengers modeled using office complexes, industries, published by Uzstat. The structure of the vehicle and different institutions as indication of where fleet in Tashkent airshed was then estimated traffic is flowing to (for example, to and from proportionally from the national data on cargo work/school), and an increase in traffic was moved (tons/day) and passengers transported simulated to occur on the main roads connecting (million passenger-km). Due to lack of Tashkent- Tashkent with the airport around the times of specific data, some assumptions had to be flight arrivals and departures. 47 Uzstat. Transport. https://stat.uz/en/official-statistics/services. Berdiyorov, A., et al. 2021. “A Sustainable Model of Urban Public Mobility in Uzbekistan.” IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science. https://iopscience.iop.org/ article/10.1088/1755-1315/822/1/012008 Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 65 In general, traffic flows were spatially and of tertiary roads, and 3,680 km of other roads temporally distributed along 1,160 km of primary across the defined airshed (Figure A 4). roads, 570 km of secondary roads, 9,600 km Figure A1.4: Road network Figure A1.5: Locations of the industrial areas in the Tashkent airshed in the Tashkent airshed Main Roads Border Line Main Roads Border Line Quarries Water Bodies All Roads Water Bodies Industrial Areas Source: World Bank. Source: World Bank. Industry The identified industrial areas in Tashkent are Emissions for heavy industries were primarily shown in Figure A1.5. The industries in Tashkent calculated based on the plants’ production data were divided into two categories — heavy and information from IEA’s energy balance for industry and light industry. Heavy industries Uzbekistan. The remaining industrial energy include the TPP, a metal factory, and a foundry consumption in the energy balance was then (see Figure A1.6), the remaining industrial areas attributed to the light industries. were included in the light industry category. Figure A1.6: Heavy industry in Tashkent Heavy Industries - TPP Heavy Industries 66 - BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Metal factory Heavy Industries - Metal factory Heavy Industries - Metal factory Heavy Industries - Foundry Heavy Industries - Foundry Source: World Bank and Google Earth. Industrial areas are also important when simulat- Open waste burning ing traffic flows as the traffic flows’ functions as- Air pollution from the waste sector mainly occurs sume heavy-duty vehicle traffic primarily going to through open waste burning. The estimation of and from industrial areas as well as some private PM 2.5 emissions from open waste burning used vehicle traffic going to and from industrial areas a published analysis on municipal solid waste in (for example, for work and commercial activities). Tashkent. 48 Brick kilns Emissions from brick production arise from the from brick kilns used assumed production fuels used in the kiln and the open-air drying of given the kiln areas as measured using Google the bricks. There are two brick kiln complexes in Earth and the relevant emission factor for brick the defined airshed, mainly outside of Tashkent production of this scale (approximately 20,000 city (Figure A1.7). The estimation of emissions bricks per day). 48 Tursunov, O., and N. Abduganiev. 2019. “A Comprehensive Study on Municipal Solid Waste Characteristics for Green Energy Recovery in Urta-Chirchik: A Case Study of Tashkent Region.” Materials Today: Proceedings: 67–71. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/ article/abs/pii/S2214785319337915?via%3Dihub Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 67 Figure A1.7: Brick kilns in Tashkent’s airshed Source: Google Earth. Quarries (Figure A1.8). Google Earth imaging was used to The location of quarries in Tashkent’s airshed identify the production practices at the quarries is shown with purple in Figure A1.5. Emissions and their surface area (total of 24.1 km 2 ). Global from quarries arise from the crushing equipment databases and emission factors specific for using fossil fuels (for example, predominantly quarries were used to estimate emissions from diesel) and emissions from the open quarry area this source. Figure A1.8: Quarries in Tashkent’s airshed Source: Google Earth. Islam Karimov Tashkent International offs per hour was obtained from the commercial Airport flight database FlightStats 49 (Figure A1.9). The Based on information about landings and take- data on landings and take-offs were also in- offs, standard emission factors used for landings, corporated into the traffic flows’ functions—an take-offs, passenger, and freight shuttling were increase in traffic on the main roads connect- applied to estimate emissions from airport oper- ing Tashkent city and the airport was modeled ations. The exact number of landings and take- around the time of landings and take-offs. 49 https://www.flightstats.com 68 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Figure A1.9: Hourly landings and take-offs at Islam Karimov Tashkent International Airport 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Arrivals Departures Source: FlightStats Note: Hours of the day represented on the horizontal (x) axis, number of arrivals/departures—on vertical (y) axis. Analysis of other sources of PM 2.5 pollution The study utilized the calculation method for PM 2.5 pollution can also occur due to natural dust urban dust standardized by US EPA in its US- events and dust transport as well as from other AP42 protocol. 50 Dust resuspension following urban-level activities such as construction and the US-AP42 protocol is a standard urban dust road dust resuspension. For this study, urban resuspension calculation method applied by dust was defined as resuspension of dust on institutions and academia around the world. the roads and dust from construction activities In addition, the urban dust emissions are occurring inside the defined airshed presented suppressed in the modeling whenever the on Figure A1.2. On the other hand, boundary or grid experiences rain or some precipitation windblown dust represents dust coming from and therefore, urban dust contribution to outside the defined airshed (outside the area PM 2.5 concentrations is assessed dynamically pictured on Figure A1.2) due to natural dust considering the meteorological conditions. events, PM 2.5 transport from barren, agricultural Windblown dust land or emission sources located outside the Natural dust events and dust transport from airshed, and so on. barren, agricultural land and commercial Urban dust activities outside the defined airshed giving rise Urban dust consists of two main components— to windblown dust affect PM 2.5 concentrations resuspension of dust on roads and dust from across the globe. Global model data show that construction activities. Road dust resuspension windblown dust is an important contributor to is a function of silt loading on the roads, mix PM 2.5 concentrations in the Central Asia region. of vehicles on the roads (represented as fleet The Global Burden of Disease-Major Air Pollution average vehicle weight), and vehicle-km-traveled. Sources (GBD-MAPS) database estimates that Data on vehicle fleet and vehicle-km-traveled 44 percent of PM 2.5 concentrations in Central were estimated from the available transport data Asia are attributed to windblown dust. 51 published by Uzstat. The boundary conditions for the air quality Similarly, for construction dust, the calculation modeling in Tashkent were taken from the is a function of the amount of area under MOZART/WACCM global model52 which is one construction and a coefficient for the expected of the models and pre-processors included in dust erosion.  The amount of area under the CAMx modeling system used in this study. construction was assumed to be the annual Given the well-documented occurrence of dust difference in the built area reported in the ESA’s events in the region, it is assumed that most of the GHS Program. boundary activity is windblown dust. 50 US EPA. AP42 protocol. https://www3.epa.gov/ttnchie1/ap42/ch13. Washington University in St. Louis. Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group: GDB-MAPS – Global. 51 https://costofairpollution.shinyapps.io/gbd_map_global_source_shinyapp/. 52 https://www2.acom.ucar.edu/gcm/waccm. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 69 The analysis for Tashkent uses the calculations and temporally dynamic emissions map for the from the global model MOZART/WACCM, in defined airshed. The emission data were then which the windblown dust is calculated using coupled with spatially and temporally dynamic two main factors—presence of dry and dusty meteorological data layer to allow for high- land and the wind speeds above a certain resolution modeling at an hourly scale. This study threshold for the dust to uplift, entrain, and get used CAMx, which incorporates meteorological transported. In this way, the model dynamically inputs from the WRF model. calculates for each grid of the defined airshed There are several chemical transport models the PM 2.5 load that is attributable to windblown available with varying degrees of complexities dust. The MOZART/WACCM model is well- in handling and processing the emissions established and has multiple applications and providing the final output in the form of globally, including in areas like the Sahara, the concentrations. These range from simple box Gobi, and the Middle East. models to moderate physics and chemistry CO2 emissions estimation models using Lagrangian and Gaussian  solvers The baseline CO2 emissions in Tashkent use the to Eulerian models that are capable of processing same activity data as that used for the PM 2.5 the emissions in a 3D setting considering both emissions calculations, presented above. CO2 advection and chemical transformations to emissions are directly proportional to the carbon the fullest extent possible. CAMx is an open- content of fuels and therefore, CO2 emissions source, Eulerian state-of-the-art modeling in Tashkent were calculated from the compiled system which aids in evaluating not only total energy and fuel data described above. concentrations but also in apportioning sources and regions at regional and urban scales and at Approach to modeling multiple time scales and therefore was deemed Modeling of air pollution utilizes meteorological as the most appropriate model to fulfill the data and emissions data to simulate the study’s objec-tives. The CAMx modeling system dispersion of air pollution over an airshed. Using has several applications as federal- and state- the approaches for emissions calculations level case studies in the United States and presented above, this study created a spatially multiple research applications worldwide. Figure A1.10: 3D meteorological modeling with WRF model =0.0 =0.0 υ θ µ µ υ =1.0 =1.0 _ Source: WRF model. WRF is a state-of-the-art mesoscale numerical help of the WRF model, 3D meteorological data model widely used for atmospheric research. were prepared for this study. The meteorological WRF is used in a number of national meteo- data are available at a spatial resolution of 0.01° rological centers across the world. With the and at a one-hour temporal resolution. The 3D 70 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan meteorological modeling that was conducted including the US EPA. The CAMx modeling using WRF allows for the consideration of system has a complex modular architecture that topography’s impact on meteorological combines inputs from other modeling systems parameters and provides realistic simulations (such as WRF) and user pre-processed data. The of the relevant meteorological conditions for air core components of CAMx include input data pollution modeling (Figure A1.10). for emissions calculations (for example, energy consumption data and emissions factors), GIS The CAMx model is a state-of-the-art photo- layers, and meteorological data that are then chemical model for simulating dispersion of air processed by CAMx to result in modeled pollutant pollutants over varying scales—ranging from concentrations and source sectoral contributions micro (neighborhood) to macro (continent) scale. to those concentrations (Figure A1.11). CAMx is supported by a number of institutions, Figure A1.11: Schematic diagram of the CAMx modeling system GIS layers Gridded Gridded emissions algorithms inventory Emissions inventory Energy • Key sources: consumption • Residential heating data • Transport Industry Concentrations, Emissions CAMX • Road dust model source sectoral by sector • Construction contributions Emission • Waste factors • Open fires • Dust storms Meteorology Emissions Meteorology statistics Source: CAMx model. As mentioned above, the WRF model was the In contrast to gridded emissions, the point source of meteorological input data to CAMx. emissions are associated with a specific location, With regard to emissions data, emissions are but the emissions rates are still time varying. treated in two main ways in CAMx: The plume rise from point emissions sources is determined by CAMx and depends on stack- ለ Gridded emissions that are released in each 3D specific parameters such as height, diameter, cell of the defined airshed velocity, and temperature of exiting gases. ለ Point emissions for which each emitting stack These parameters coupled with the ambient is associated with coordinates and a time- meteorological conditions provide the individual varying emission function. temporal emission rates of each point source. Residential, commercial, mobile, non-industrial, Moreover, CAMx has a built-in module for PM small industrial, and natural emission sources source apportionment to identify the sources were defined as gridded emissions and are char- of PM pollution. CAMx uses multiple tracer acterized by space- and time-varying emission families to identify the sources of primary PM rates. The emission rates are influenced by the emissions and secondary formation of PM in the additional layers included in CAMx for this study atmosphere. By including secondary formation such as population distribution, housing density, of PM, CAMx simulates the actual atmospheric road transport network, and vegetative cover. chemistry and provides a robust source Large stationary sources such as the TPP, for apportionment analysis which is an essential tool instance, were modeled as point emissions. for decision-making in AQM. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 71 Annex 2. References to Global Databases Used in the Study ለ AirNow, US Department of State, https://www.airnow.gov/?city=Tashkent&country=UZB; ለ IEA, energy policy review for Uzbekistan https://www.iea.org/reports/uzbekistan-2022; ለ STATISTA: a commercial data service site https://www.statista.com; ለ OpenStreetMap (OSM), road network database https://www.openstreetmap.org; ለ ESA’s GHS Program, information on built-up urban area https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/datasets.php; ለ LANDSCAN program, information on gridded population https://landscan.ornl.gov/; ለ FlightStats, a commercial data service with information on domestic and international flight schedules https://www.flightstats.com; ለ Google Earth, information on features of interest for which GIS fields are not readily available: https://earth.google.com/web/; ለ WRF modeling system, meteorological data processing https://www.mmm.ucar.edu/models/wrf; ለ Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, emission factors database https://gains.iiasa.ac.at/models; ለ Washington University in St. Louis, long-term global PM 2.5 concentration data https://sites.wustl.edu/acag/datasets/. 72 BACK TO CONTENTS Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan Annex 3. CO2 Emissions in Tashkent To evaluate the overlap or lack of the key air is the second largest source of CO2 emissions pollution and GHG emissions sources, in addition in Tashkent and is responsible for just over 40 to compiling activity data about the main PM 2.5 percent of annual emissions. Burning coal in the emissions sources in Tashkent and estimating heating sector is the third most important source the emissions from those sources, this study of CO2 emissions in Tashkent. The ranking of estimated CO2 emissions. The resulting emis- CO2 emission sources differs from that of PM 2.5 sions estimates are presented in Table A3.1. For emission sources. Heating is the largest PM 2.5 a description of the methodology used for the emission source (third largest CO 2 emission emissions estimates, see Annex 1. source), followed by transport (the largest CO2 emission source) and industry (the second The largest source of annual CO2 emissions in largest CO2 emission source). Tashkent is transport, accounting for almost half of the emissions in the city. The industrial sector Table A3.1: Estimated CO2 emissions in Tashkent in 2021 CO2 emissions, Emissions source Description tons/year Heating Includes emissions from residential and commercial heating and cooking 710,350 Transport Includes all road transport and emissions from the airport 3,071,300 Includes emissions from the TPP, other industries, quarries, brick kilns, Industries 2,671,700 and diesel generators at commercial buildings Open waste burning Includes emissions from open waste burning around the airshed 2,200 Total 6,455,550 Source: World Bank. The emissions calculations show a common for heating. The use of biomass for heating is a but important discrepancy between the priority key source of PM 2.5 emissions, but if biomass emissions sources for GHGs and for air pollution is sustainably sourced, it is considered to be (in this case PM 2.5 ). This discrepancy highlights climate neutral. However, the use of biomass for the need to design integrated air pollution and heating in Uzbekistan is low and hence, reducing GHG reduction PaMs to maximize co-benefits fossil fuel use in heating and transport and and efficiently manage trade-offs stemming incentivizing cleaner industrial production will from differences in priority sources to be ensure co-benefits that contribute to achieving addressed. A key trade-off between air pollution both local air quality and climate change and climate change policies is the use of biomass mitigation objectives. Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan BACK TO CONTENTS 73 Air Quality Assessment for Tashkent and the Roadmap for Air Quality Management Improvement in Uzbekistan June 2024 MINISTRY OF ECOLOGY, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN