EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Defueling Conflict ENVIRONM ENT A N D N A TU R A L RES OU RC E M A N A GE M E N T AS A P AT H WA Y TO PE A CE DEFUELING CONFLICT: ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AS A PATHWAY TO PEACE Background, Context, and Approach Fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS), environmental degradation, and natural disasters are on the rise and threaten to reverse development gains. In the past decade, violent civil conflicts have tripled and the number of people living in proximity to conflict has nearly doubled, with forced displacement at a record high. The World Bank Group (WBG) Strategy for Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV) 2020–2025 marks a shift in the World Bank’s work in fragile and conflict situations, as it adopts a more holistic approach to prevention. The Strategy seeks to enhance the World Bank Group’s effectiveness in supporting countries’ efforts to address the drivers and impacts of FCV and strengthen their resilience, especially for their most vulnerable and marginalized populations. The FCV Strategy explicitly recognizes the importance of climate change as a driver of FCV and as a threat multiplier, as well as the need to address the environmental impacts and drivers of FCV. Delivering on this shift toward preventing conflict underscores the importance of understanding the role the environment and natural resources can have. The report Defueling Conflict: Environment and Natural Resource Management as a Pathway to Peace seeks to build a strong narrative on the need for the World Bank Group to engage and invest in environment, natural resource management, and climate change resilience in FCV-affected situations. It further aims at facilitating the integration of a conflict-sensitive lens into World Bank operations and programs addressing natural resource degradation and climate change. To meet these objectives, the report seeks to: » Clarify environment-conflict linkages and entry points in light of the FCV Strategy and enhance awareness on how environmental interventions may interact with conflict. » Serve as a general resource for World Bank teams to empower their programs in FCV. » Present a broad suite of options to improve conflict-sensitive design and implementation. » Influence high-level policy and programs on FCV to consider natural resources more systematically. To this end, the report offers a compendium of concise but detailed information incorporating essential guidance, reference material, and analytical tools for a broad audience with a wide range of technical expertise. The document is suitable for World Bank project teams across different Global Practices, as well as external readers with different ranges of expertise. The report is divided in six sections: SECTION 1 sets the Background, Context, and Approach, as laid out above. SECTION 2 describes the risks associated with the interplay between natural resources, climate change, fragility, and conflict across the conflict cycle. SECTION 3 connects those causal chains to the delivery of the FCV Strategy across its four pillars. SECTION 4 showcases a suite of options to improve conflict-sensitive project design and implementation. SECTION 5 presents an annotated questionnaire that serves as a complementary tool to the report. 1 Executive Summary Natural Resources, Climate Change, Fragility, and Conflict Risks and Linkages Fragility and conflict are rarely caused by a single driver. Instead, they are often the result of multiple, interacting, and compounding factors. At the same time, weak governance and lack of resilience in FCS can trigger conflict, which further exacerbates factors of fragility. Section 2 of the report breaks down FCV challenges, and elucidates the relationships, trends, and knock-on impacts between FCV and environment. DIRECT IMPACTS: Violent conflict can drive natural habitat loss and render significant, consistently negative effects on biodiversity. For instance, conflict is the most important predictor of wildlife decline for large-mammal populations in Africa from 1946 to 2010, while environmental crime is the largest financial driver of conflict. INDIRECT IMPACTS: Military priorities, an urgent need for cash, and weak negotiating power often push nations into unfavorable resource contracts. The rapidly changing security situation lends itself to short-term coping strategies as opposed to sustainable, long-term resource management and use, including at the household level. Adding to this uncertainty is the threat to tenure security: for example, land records were destroyed over the course of conflicts in Yugoslavia, Timor-Leste, Cambodia, and Afghanistan. POST-CONFLICT: Once conflict ends, there is opportunity to transform and (re)build systems that, otherwise, may be politically difficult. Capitalizing on opportunities is especially important if natural resources triggered the conflict or threaten the prospects for peace. Natural resources are further vulnerable to exploitation in the post-conflict period. CAUSAL CHAIN The environment rarely causes conflict directly but can exacerbate existing social, IMPACTS: economic, and political challenges and stressors in FCS contexts – and eventually lead into violence. Whether increased competition over natural resources escalates into conflict depends on several risk factors, such as high natural resource dependence, inequality and marginalization, and a recent history of conflict. Each risk factor is exacerbated by climate change. GENDER, CONFLICT, Conflict and environmental vulnerabilities disproportionally affect women, girls, and other AND ENVIRONMENT: marginalized groups. Structural gender inequalities, discriminatory laws, and adverse gender norms put them at a further disadvantage to cope with conflict and climate-related shocks because they lack equal access to and control over land, property, and other assets. The conflict-gender-environment nexus also increases the risk of gender-based violence. The gendered implications of conflict are therefore a critical factor to consider in operations and peacebuilding. TYPOLOGIES OF There are different ways to classify and understand the environmental risks and drivers RISKS AND DRIVERS: of conflict, including: (i) scarcity- vs. abundance-driven conflict, (ii) risks and drivers by natural resource category (non-renewable resources, renewable resources, and land), and (iii) typical risks and drivers from a changing climate. Alignment with the WBG’s FCV Strategy and Entry Points Section 3 discusses the drivers of resilience and the opportunities for World Bank engagement throughout the four pillars of the FCV Strategy: prevention, engagement during conflict, transition out of fragility, and mitigation of FCV spillovers. 2 DEFUELING CONFLICT: ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT AS A PATHWAY TO PEACE The report draws attention to the potential sequence of risks and opportunities, while emphasizing the entry points are dynamic and change throughout the conflict cycle. Natural resources can be a valuable entry point for dialogue and confidence-building between divided groups to work toward a common goal with multiple benefits (i.e., peace dividends) as part of prevention efforts (Pillar I). Effective natural resource management supports the stability of the economy at the national and local levels and can be used to enable productive, sustainable, and rewarding livelihoods. Environmental and natural resources are also a relevant factor during conflict (Pillar II), when the humanitarian stakes are high. Natural resources can encourage stakeholders to consider long-term time horizons on issues that transcend political boundaries and that may be less-politically charged than others. In the transition out of fragility (Pillar III), natural resources/environment can be further at the core of efforts to diversifying the economy, mobilizing financing, and engaging formal and informal sectors to revitalize rural livelihoods. There are also job creation and food security opportunities in reforestation, rehabilitation of ecosystems, renewable energy programs, green jobs, agriculture, community forestry, sustainable fisheries, etc. At the macro level, water and other natural resources are key for the provision of basic services, while at the micro level, effective and sustainable management is key for achieving water security, food security, and access to agricultural inputs post-conflict. The effects of FCV are not limited to countries in active conflict but are broadly felt, as reflected in Pillar IV of the FCV Strategy. For instance, migration can exert pressure on host communities and countries and can intensify desertification, deforestation, and other forms of resource scarcity. While Pillars I-III above aim to contain the spillovers of FCV by improving community resilience through adaptation and mitigation at the local and national levels, Pillar IV advocates for immediate, concerted action to reduce global emissions. Programmatic and Project-Level Strategies & Guiding Principles Section 4 of Defueling Conflict: Environment and Natural Resource Management as a Pathway to Peace offers recommendations for programs and projects to consider the multiple dimensions of conflict – that is, to be conflict-sensitive. The starting point for conflict sensitivity is the assumption that no intervention is neutral. Conflict sensitivity enhances the understanding about the risks associated with working in FCV contexts, helps avoid exacerbating or generating conflict, and contributes to identifying opportunities to prevent violence and promote resilience. Conflict sensitivity also means that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, since conflict drivers and dynamics vary from context to context. This approach aligns well with the FCV Strategy, which calls for projects to adopt peace lenses and conflict filters that help identify fragility drivers and risks, and plan potential mitigating measures. Having dedicated financial resources and hands-on support to project teams is the single most important factor to ensure such instruments are used correctly, according to an internal World Bank review. Adopting a conflict-sensitive approach can also help integrate the interplay between environment and social determinants (such as gender, race, ethnicity, sexual orientation, and age) across projects in order to address the differentiated needs and impacts on various groups. Factoring in how social inclusion intersects with gender can improve the design of interventions by identifying groups affected by the gender-conflict-environment nexus. 3 Executive Summary The role of communities is also relevant under a conflict-sensitive lens. Community-Driven Development programs have been especially prominent in FCV and are among the most common operational approaches in the portfolio. Communities play an influential role in identifying and addressing risks. Real-time data to and from communities can support the transparent sharing of information, improve coordination and collective action across different scales, and serve as an early warning system. Adaptative management is another important factor to take into account in projects and programs undertaken in FCV contexts. Because of the shifting dynamics of fragility and conflict, flexibility is essential, so that projects and programs can be adapted if security conditions worsen. A final aspect to improve conflict sensitivity entails adopting affirmative action measures to promote gender equality. These can help advance women’s participation in sustainable natural resource management and governance. Natural Resource Management in Fragile, Conflict, and Violence-Affected Contexts: Questionnaire for Upstream Analytics and Downstream Operations The report includes a questionnaire (Section 5) to consider the interplay between conflict, climate, and environment, along with gender and social inclusion considerations, both in upstream analytics and downstream operations. The questionnaire is divided into two sections: (i) Situational Analysis - which is a series of macro-level guiding questions that are especially useful to help task-teams and inform Risk and Resilience Assessment, Country Partnership Framework, and Systematic Country Diagnostic development at a strategic level; and (ii) Project Design – with questions that deepen the analysis and enhance the conflict sensitivity of operations. The questionnaire is not intended as a “checklist,” but as a tool to help teams ask the appropriate questions to integrate these complex dimensions in WBG projects. The questionnaire can be adapted to country and local contexts. Select Resources for Task Teams Section 6 contains a list of relevant internal and external resources that can be used for in- depth analysis and with the objective of producing deeper insights and guidance to support the implementation and strengthening of conflict sensitivity in environment, climate change, and natural resource management-related projects. 4