REM DAMAGE EB2023 21767678, 36.52095602 J14 Syria Earthquake 2023 Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) March 2023 © 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. 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Syria Earthquake 2023 Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) March 2023 Disclaimer: This is a largely remotely conducted assessment that relies primarily on data from satellite imagery, publicly available information, and social media analytics, corroborated and validated by other sources and means, including data from development partners. Although all efforts have been made to improve the accuracy of the information that was collected and analyzed, and to use publicly available ground-based data when feasible, the assessment was produced in a quick timeframe to ensure the relevance of the estimations. This is a living document and will be updated as new information becomes available. It provides an overall picture of the effects of the earthquake on the population, physical assets, infrastructure, and service delivery, but is not a substitute for in-depth sector-specific assessments. Given the situation in Syria, this RDNA was conducted solely by the World Bank without any collaboration with the Syrian government. The report uses the exchange rate US$1 = 4,500 Syrian Pounds (SYP). Table of Contents Acronyms.......................................................................................3 Acknowledgments..........................................................................4 Executive summary Key findings Objectives Scope Methodology Summary of Sector Reports Introduction .................................................................................21 Context: The Conflict and Disaster Nexus Objectives Scope Methodology Limitations and Key Challenges Guiding Principles for Earthquake Recovery and Reconstruction Amidst Protracted Conflict............................................................26 Macroeconomic Impacts...............................................................28 Socioeconomic Impacts................................................................32 Impact on Social Sectors..............................................................39 Housing Health Education Municipal Services Cultural Heritage Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets..............68 Transport Water Power Agriculture Digital Development Impact on Cross-cutting Sectors................................................. 104 Public Institutions Environment Social Sustainability and Inclusion Social Protection and Livelihoods Acknowledgments The Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment for Syria was conducted by the World Bank Group in the aftermath of the devastating earthquakes that struck Syria and Türkiye on February 6 and February 20, 2023. The assessment was prepared by a multidisciplinary team led by Joy Aoun (Disaster Risk Management Specialist and co- Lead) and Ayaz Parvez (Lead Disaster Risk Management Specialist and co-lead). The team in charge of overall management, coherency of the report, and drafting of the executive summary and introduction chapters was comprised of Ghizlane Aqariden (Consultant), Fares Salem (Consultant), Marc Cortadellas Mancini (Consultant), Shahrzad Fard (Consultant), Nadia Islam-Maswood (Program Analyst), Atishay Abbhi (Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Needa Malik (Disaster Risk Management Analyst), Randy Rizk (Program Assistant), and Jakob Eklund (Temporary). Sector chapters were drafted by the following specialists: • Municipal Services: Mohamed Nada, Guido Licciardi, and Narayan Edadan. • Housing: Mohamed Nada, Narayanan Edadan, and Guido Licciardi. • Social Sustainability & Inclusion: Lelav Amedi • Environment: Frank van Woerden and Phoebe Girourd Spencer. • Water: Sally Zgheib, Marcus J. Wishart, Rajesh Balasubramanian, and Iyad Rammal. • Agriculture: Armine Juergenliemk, Tobias Baedeker and Hadi Fathallah. • Power: Alexis Madelain, Waleed Tayseer Alhaddad, and Rida Mawla. • Transport: Mira Morad, Hakim Al-Aghbari, Gaelle Samaha, Derek Colin Mahony, and Marian Arakelian. • Digital Development: Abdallah Jabbour and Rita Kerbaj. • Social Protection and Jobs: Sara Hariz, Mohamad Mansour, and Khalil Wehbe. • Health: Katriel Friedman and Mohini Kak. • Education: Joel Reyes and Dina Abu-Ghaida. • Public institutions: Rima Koteiche and Amal Chaoul. • Cultural Heritage: Guido Licciardi. • Socioeconomic impact: Silvia Redaelli. • Macroeconomic Impact: Luan Zhao, Charl Jooste, Robert Andrew Marty, Joanne Matossian, Enkhzaya Demid, Yahui Zhao, and Ola Hisou. 4 The team would like to express its gratitude to the World Bank management for their strategic guidance towards the preparation of this report: Jean-Christophe Carret (Country Director), Meskerem Brhane (Regional Director, Middle East and North Africa) and Marianne Grosclaude (Practice Manager, Middle East and North Africa), The team received valuable comments and inputs from Eric Le Borgne (Practice Manager), Norbert Fiess (Lead Country Economist, Program Leader), Andrew Burns (Global Lead, Macroeconomic Modeling, Macroeconomics, Trade & Investment), Hemang Karelia (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Francis Samson Nkoka (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Zeina El Khalil (Senior External Affairs Officer), Salim Rouhana (Program Leader), Fatima Shah (Senior Operations Officer), Philipp Petermann (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Elif Ayhan (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Alain Willy Aeschlimann (Consultant), Mounir Mahmalat (Consultant), and Jae Kyun Kim (Operations Officer) The RDNA team engaged in consultations with UN agencies and would like to thank UN colleagues for their invaluable support. Analytical support was provided by the World Bank’s Development Data Partnerships team and remote sensing and analytics by IPSOS. Finally, the team is thankful for the generous financial and technical support from the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). Designer: Sarah Alameddine Editing: Mark Mattson Cover photo: City of Harem, J14, DOI: 11FEB2023. World Bank/Ipsos 5 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYM ABA Area-based approach ACLED Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project AI Artificial intelligence ALOS Advanced Land Observing Satellite AANES Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria BBB Build back better CPI Consumer Price Index CSO Civil society organization DCM Disaster Connectivity Map DG Diesel generator DMSP Defense Meteorological Satellite Program DNA Damage and needs assessment EO Earth Observation EU European Union EWARS Early Warning, Alert and Response System FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FCV Fragility, Conflict and Violence GDP Gross domestic product GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GRADE Global Rapid Post Disaster Damage Estimation GRM Grievance Redress Mechanisms HNAP Humanitarian Needs Assessment Programme HRH Human Resources for Health ICT Information and communication technology IDP Internally displaced person IHME Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation IMF International Monetary Fund iNGO international non-governmental organization InSAR Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar IOM International Organization for Migration ISP Internet service provider ITU International Telecommunication Union ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYM 6 Mbps Megabits per second MCM Million cubic meters MENA Middle East and North Africa MOSAL Ministry of Social Affairs and Labor MPCA Multi-purpose cash assistance MPCV Multi-purpose cash and vouchers Mw Magnitude NCD Non-communicable disease NGO Non-governmental organization NSAF National Social Assistance Fund (NSAF) OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs PAI Personal activity intelligence PHC Primary health care centers PLW Pregnant and lactating Woman PSS Psychosocial support PV Photovoltaic rCSI Reduced Coping Strategy Index RDNA Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment SAR Synthetic aperture radar SDF Syrian Democratic Force SSN Social Safety Nets ST Syrian Telecom STE Syrian Turkish Energy Company SYP Syrian Pound TIMSS Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study UN United Nations UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund US United States of America USGS United States Geological Survey VIIRS Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite VSAT Very Small Aperture Terminals WASH Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene WB World Bank WBG World Bank Group WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYM 7 Executive Summary Following the magnitude (Mw) 7.8 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake increase in inflation from 44 to 60 percent due to supply on February 6, 2023, and the (Mw) 6.3 earthquake on chain disruptions and higher transport costs will reduce February 20, 2023, the World Bank launched the Syria Rapid private consumption. Earthquake-related reconstruction is Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA). The objective of expected to offset some of these losses but the extent and the RDNA is to estimate the impact of the earthquake on pace of this reconstruction remains to be seen. The fiscal physical assets and service delivery in the most affected deficit is projected to rise marginally from a pre-earthquake areas. The RDNA covers six governorates with roughly 10 baseline of 8.6 percent to 8.8 percent of GDP based on the million inhabitants, with an in-depth analysis of nine cities. assumption that the country’s social and infrastructure needs It provides preliminary estimates to rebuild infrastructure and following the earthquake will be largely met by foreign donor restore service delivery, and general guiding principles for aid. The current account deficit is estimated to rise from a recovery and building back better, focusing on early recovery pre-earthquake baseline projection of 2.5 percent of GDP to (0–12 months) and short-term needs (1–3 years). The RDNA around 3.2 percent of GDP, due mainly to higher imports to also analyses the macroeconomic and socioeconomic support reconstruction investment. The economic outlook impacts of the earthquake to anticipate repercussions on is poor because of anticipated slow reconstruction, weak the economic outlook and on the population’s well-being. private investment, and limited humanitarian assistance. GDP losses will be higher in the medium-term should Physical damages and losses related to the Syrian reconstruction efforts be further delayed. earthquake are estimated at US$3.7 billion and US$1.5 billion, respectively, bringing the total estimated impact to Overall, it is estimated that 6.6 million Syrians live in US$5.2 billion. Reconstruction and recovery needs across impacted areas which have been affected by the earthquake the six assessed governorates are estimated at US$7.9 at an intensity VI (strong shaking) or higher. Earthquake- billion, with needs in year 1 and years 2-3 post-earthquake induced displacement will add to the staggering count of 3 estimated at US$3.7 billion and US$4.2 billion, respectively. million conflict induced internally displaced persons (IDPs) already living in affected areas. High levels of pre-existing The Syrian economy, which prior to the earthquake was welfare vulnerability limit households’ capacity to cope with projected to contract by 3.2 percent in 2023, is now the impact of the earthquake, hence exacerbating the risk of projected to decline by 5.5 percent over the same year (with long-lasting welfare consequences. the uncertainty of this year’s forecast increasing significantly following the earthquake).1 On the production side, the The RDNA follows another assessment recently conducted earthquake will adversely impact the productive capacity by the World Bank known as the Global Rapid Post-Disaster of the country, mainly through the destruction of physical Damage Estimation (GRADE)2, that estimated direct physical capital and disruptions in trade networks. The projected damages in Syria ranging between US$2.7 billion and US$7.9 1 The Winter 2022/23 issue of the Syria Economic Monitor of the World Bank provides a more detailed analysis of the Syrian economy prior to the earthquake 2 Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report : Mw 7.8 Türkiye-Syria Earthquake - Assessment of the Impact on Syria : Results as of February 20, 2023 Executive Summary 8 billion.3 While the GRADE focuses on physical damages damages incurred by the earthquake, the compounding and relies largely on earthquake damage modelling and effect of the pre-existing damages caused by the conflict are exposure analysis, the RDNA provides sectoral damages, reflected in the pre-earthquake baseline. The RDNA follows economic losses, and recovery needs, estimated through a globally established and recognized damage, loss, and various data acquisition and triangulation tools, detailed needs assessment methodology developed by the World in the section below. While there are differences in the Bank Group (WBG), the European Union (EU), and the United methodology and the scope of these two assessments, the Nations (UN). This methodology has been applied globally in RDNA damage and loss estimate is closely aligned with the post-disaster and conflict contexts to inform recovery and GRADE’s median estimate. reconstruction planning. Prior to this RDNA, the World Bank Group conducted six assessments4 to provide information This RDNA contributes to the understanding of the impact on the effects of the ongoing conflict on population, physical of the earthquake on Syria. While the RDNA focuses on the infrastructure, and quality of service delivery.5 Figure 1: Earthquake impact by Governorate and Control Areas6. Source: World Bank 3 Earthquake Direct Damage in Syria Estimated at $5.1 billion in Areas Already Severely Ravaged by Long Conflict and Displacement 4 Syria Damage Assessment of Selected Cities Aleppo, Hama, Idlib (2017) 5 Syria 2022 - Joint Damage Assessment of Selected Cities 6 2023 Humanitarian Needs Overview: Syrian Arab Republic Executive Summary 9 SYRIA RAPID DAMAGE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT SCOPE RDNA Key Facts TEMPORAL SCOPE: Damages and losses were calculated against the actual or estimated pre-earthquake baseline of physical assets. Damage data were collected between February 24 and March 5, 2023. OBJECTIVES ssess the  impact of the earthquake  on • A physical assets, infrastructure, and  service GEOGRAPHICAL SCOPE: delivery.​ • Conduct a preliminary estimate of The RDNA covers the six governorates most infrastructure reconstruction and service impacted by the earthquake: Aleppo, Hama, Idlib, delivery  restoration needs  in the immediate Latakia, Raqqah and Tartous, with an in-depth and short-term.​ • Inform the World Bank and the international analysis of nine cities: Aleppo, Harem, Jableh, community of the impact and the needs Afrin, Ad-Dana, Jandairis, Azaz, Sarmada, and associated with the disaster. Latakia.7 Results are presented by sector, by city, by governorate, by area of control and at the aggregate level.  METHODOLOGY The Syria RDNA’s analyses and recommendations SECTORAL SCOPE: focus on the impact, and the recovery and reconstruction needs following the earthquake The RDNA covers macroeconomic and in Syria. Damages, losses, and needs analyses socioeconomic impacts, 10 sectors, and 4 cross- and recommendations are relative to the pre- cutting areas: Housing, Power, Transport, Water, earthquake baseline of physical assets. The RDNA Digital Development, Agriculture, Education, relies on remote data sources which include 50 Cultural Heritage, Health, Municipal Services, cm resolution satellite imagery, (social) media analytics, anonymized cellphone data, night Public Institutions, Environment, Social Protection lights data, and publicly available information and Livelihoods, and Social Sustainability and to reach inaccessible areas and triangulate and Inclusion. improve the veracity of the data. Data limitations remained, however. While all efforts are made to improve accuracy, a remote assessment is broad-brush and provides only an indicative overview of the impact. For example, in the water sector, damages pertaining to underground 7 The in-depth analysis excluded Idlib city as initial reporting suggested limited damage to the city. However water infrastructure could not be assessed due the Idlib governorate as a whole incurred significant to methodological and data constraints. damage, which was estimated through extrapolation methods. Executive Summary 10 MILESTONES A magnitude February KEY 7.8 earthquake 6 FINDINGS February Launch of the GRADE 7 DAMAGES 3.7 Planning of the RDNA Mobilization of World February US$ Bank RDNA team 13-23 billion February A magnitude 6.3 earthquake 20 LOSSES RDNA data February 24 collection 1.5 -March 5 US$ billion February Publication of the GRADE 28 NEEDS Data analysis, report writing and review March 5-12 7.9 US$ billion March Finalization and publication of 12-17 RDNA report Executive Summary 11 DAMAGES AND LOSSES (US$) NEEDS (US$) Sector Damages Losses Total Effect Early recovery Short term Total (0-3 Share of total (0-12 months) (1-3 months) years) needs (%) Executive Summary Social Sectors Housing $880,869,451 $69,214,139 $950,083,590 $446,600,812 $961,909,441 $1,408,510,252 17.8% Health $202,859,637 $97,534,890 $300,394,527 $162,287,709 $223,145,600 $385,433,309 4.9% Estimates as of March 16 in US$ Education $30,691,845 $85,373,788 $116,065,633 $47,073,437 $91,377,849 $138,451,286 1.7% Municipal Services $73,767,903 - $73,767,903 $38,359,309 $57,538,964 $95,898,274 1.2% Cultural Heritage $444,020,045 - $444,020,045 $230,890,423 $346,335,635 $577,226,058 7.3% Key Findings of the RDNA Social Sectors $1,632,208,880 $252,122,817 $1,884,331,698 $925,211,691 $1,680,307,489 $2,605,519,180 32.9% Total Physical Infrastructure and Productive Sectors Transport $717,865,031 - $717,865,031 $373,289,816 $559,934,724 $933,224,540 11.8% Water $145,372,561 - $145,372,561 $73,593,009 $158,508,019 $232,101,028 2.9% Power $32,118,566 - $32,118,566 $16,284,113 $35,073,474 $51,357,587 0.6% Agriculture $559,191,853 $1,268,313,107 $1,827,504,960 $1,602,801,010 $519,292,817 $2,122,093,826 26.8% Digital $180,000 - $180,000 $390,000 - $390,000 0.0% TABLE 1: DAMAGES, LOSSES, AND NEEDS BY SECTOR (IN US$) Development Infrastructure $1,454,728,010 $1,268,313,107 $2,723,041,117 $2,066,357,947 $1,272,809,034 $3,339,166,981 42.2% Sectors Total Cross-Cutting Sectors Public Institutions $47,045,120 $4,704,512 $51,749,632 $57,227,028 $3,931,628 $61,158,655 0.8% Environment $614,583,069 - $614,583,069 $307,291,535 $307,291,535 $614,583,069 7.8% Social Protection - - - $341,760,000 $950,400,000 $1,292,160,000 16.3% Cross-Cutting $661,628,188 $4,704,512 $666,332,700 $706,278,562 $1,261,623,162 $1,967,901,724 24.9% Sectors Total Grand Total $3,748,565,079 $1,525,140,436 $5,273,705,515 $3,697,848,201 $4,214,739,685 $7,912,587,885 100% 12 Figure 2: Damages and Losses by Sector (In US$ million) $1,400 $1,268 $1,200 $1,000 $881 $800 $718 $615 $559 $600 $444 $400 $203 $145 $200 $85 $98 $47 $74 $69 $32 $0.2 $0 $0 $5 $0 $31 $0 $0 $0 $- Digital Development Energy Public Municipal Services Education Water Health Heritage Housing Agriculture Institutions Cultural Environment Transport Damages Losses Note: The Social Protection and Livelihoods and Social Sustainability and Inclusion sectors do not include damages and losses. Figure 3: Physical damages and losses related to the earthquake are Damages and Losses by Governorate estimated at US$3.7 billion and US$1.5 billion, respectively. (In US$ million) The largest physical damages were incurred in Housing (23.5 percent of total), followed by Transport (19.2 percent of total), $2,500 Environment (16.4 percent of total), Agriculture (14.9 percent of total), Cultural Heritage (11.8 percent of total), Health (5.4 $2,073 percent of total) and Water (3.9 percent of total). The remainder $2,000 of the damages (4.9 percent of total) were incurred in Municipal Services, Public Institutions, Power, and Education. With regard to losses, Agriculture incurred losses related to the fall in food $1,500 supplies of US$1.3 billion (83.2 percent of total). The remainder of the losses were in Health and in Education as a result of additional, unanticipated recurrent expenditures in these $982 sectors, and in Housing, related to the loss of rental income, $1,000 housing expenditures of families with destroyed houses, loss $670 of housing assets, and loss of income to governments. Some sector losses could not be included in the assessment due to $500 data constraints. $372 $310 $260 Among the six Governorates assessed under the RDNA, the $- Governorate of Aleppo (which includes the cities of Aleppo, Azaz Tartous Idlib Raqqa Hama Aleppo Latakia and Afrin) was most damaged at 44 percent of total damages. The second largest damages were incurred in Idlib (which includes the cities of Sarmada, Harem and Ad-Dana) at 21 percent of total damages. In Aleppo Governorate, damages were predominantly in Housing, followed by Agriculture, Environment, and Cultural Heritage. In Idlib Governorate, damages were most significant in Agriculture, followed by Housing, Transport, Environment and Health. Executive Summary 13 Figure 4: Damages and Losses by City (In US$ million) ALEPPO $403 LATAKIA $85 AZAZ $64 SARMADA $37 JANDAIRIS $35 AFRIN $29 JABLEH $18 HAREM $8 AD - DANA $1 $- $200 $400 The estimated damages across the nine assessed cities In the early recovery period (0-12 months), efforts should were in Aleppo (59.9 percent of total), followed by Latakia address the most urgent and immediate needs of affected (12.2 percent of total), Azaz (9.6 percent of total), Sarmada communities, including provision of emergency shelter and (5.7 percent of total), Jandairis (5.2 percent of total), Afrin restoration of basic services, including food, water, and (3.3 percent of total), Jableh (2.6 percent of total), Harem health services. Simultaneously with early recovery efforts, (1.3 percent of total) and Ad-Dana (0.0 percent of total). the short-term (1-3 years) focus should shift towards rebuilding damaged infrastructure, and supporting affected The recent earthquake in Northwest Syria has caused communities to rebuild their livelihoods and promote extensive damages and losses across different areas of sustainable development. control. Government-controlled areas suffered the most significant impact, with total damages and losses estimated at US$2.8 billion. The Autonomous Administration of North Figure 5: and East Syria (AANES) also suffered significant losses at Damages and Losses by Area of Control US$1.3 billion, while opposition-controlled areas incurred (In US$ million) damages and losses of US$1.2 billion. $3,000 $2,829 Reconstruction and recovery needs for the six assessed governorates are estimated at US$7.9 billion, with needs in $2,500 year 1 and years 2–3 estimated at US$3.7 billion and US$4.2 billion, respectively. The largest needs pertain to Agriculture (26.8 percent of total), followed by Housing (17.8 percent of $2,000 total), Social Protection (16.3 percent of total) and Transport (11.8 percent of total). $1,500 $1,295 Government-controlled areas have been identified as $1,150 having the greatest reconstruction and recovery needs, $1,000 estimated at US$4.5 billion. This is followed by opposition- controlled areas with US$ 2.1 billion and areas under the control of the AANES with US$1.3 billion. The higher $500 reconstruction and recovery needs in government-controlled areas can be attributed to several factors, such as higher $- population density and built-up area thus leading to greater Government- Autonomous Opposition- infrastructure damage and public service disruption. Controlled Areas Administration Controlled Areas of North and East Syria Executive Summary 14 Figure 6: Recovery and Reconstruction Needs by Sector (In US$ million) $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- Housing Health Education Power Digital Development Municipal Services Cultural Heritage Transport Water Agriculture Environment Social Protection Public Institutions Social Sectors Physical Infrastructure and Productive Cross-Cutting Sectors Sectors Early recovery (0-12 months) Short term (1-3 years) Figure 7: Figure 8: Share of Total Needs Needs by Area of Control (In US$ million) by Governorate $5,000 $4,505 $4,500 6% 6% $4,000 5% $3,500 $3,000 12% 45% $2,500 $2,087 $2,000 $1,500 $1,320 26% $1,000 $500 Aleppo Hama $- Idlib Latakia Government-Controlled Autonomous Opposition-Controlled Raqqa Tartous Areas Administration of North Areas and East Syria Executive Summary 15 Summary of RDNA Sector Reports  Housing  Housing damages across the urban and rural areas of the six governorates are estimated at US$880.6 million, with some 87,330 housing units, representing 4.8 percent of the total housing stock, considered to have been partially damaged or destroyed. Losses (comprised of loss of rental income, housing expenditures of families with destroyed houses, loss of housing assets, and loss of income to governments) are estimated at US$69.2 million across the six governorates. Aleppo and Idlib Governorates incurred 92 percent of estimated damage costs and 90 percent of estimated losses. About 21 percent of units damaged are from the informal sector, occupied by vulnerable lower middle- income families.  Total reconstruction and recovery needs in housing, which comprise of the reconstruction of destroyed housing units, and the rehabilitation cost of partially damaged units and service costs, are estimated at US$1.4 billion, respectively, across the six governorates. The housing recovery strategy encompasses the mass rehabilitation and reconstruction of the damaged and destroyed housing stock based on Building-Back-Better standards and the use of participatory recovery approaches, while particularly targeting displaced populations. The early recovery phase should include damage assessment; vulnerability mapping and technical support to local governments for seismic-resilient urban planning and development; and community and area-based inclusive and sustainable recovery.  Executive Summary 16 Health   facilities. Assessed economic losses relate to unexpected public expenditures, such as for temporary education 3.9 percent of health facilities in the affected areas were spaces, safety programs, psychosocial support, educational either damaged (3.5 percent of facilities) or destroyed (0.4 supplies, and temporary teaching staff.   percent of facilities), with estimated damages of US$202.9 million. Health facilities in impacted areas were unable Recovery and reconstruction needs in education, which to accommodate the surge in patients and had to refer consist of infrastructure and restored service delivery, them elsewhere. Shortages of specialized care facilities, are assessed at US$116 million. The immediate needs in equipment, basic medical consumables, and health education over the next 12 months amount to US$40 million. professionals all impaired the ability of health facilities to The short-term needs in education years 2 and 3 amount provide care. With thousands of displaced people living to US$76 million. The rebuilding of education infrastructure in shelters, there is an increased risk of disease due to must consider seismic resistant, green, and child-centered crowding, unsafe water, and poor sanitation and hygiene. school designs.  In the weeks following the earthquake, there has been a 28 percent increase in morbidity for common conditions such Municipal Services   as influenza and diarrhea.    The earthquake damages to municipal assets—i.e., The health recovery strategy needs to address the community facilities, community markets, fire stations, compounded impacts of the conflict, COVID-19, the libraries, parks/playgrounds, police stations, public cholera outbreak and the earthquake on the health system parking lots, stadiums, town/city halls, zoos, and tertiary and requires an estimated US$385.4 million. The near-term and residential roads–are estimated at US$24.6 million priority is to restore essential health services in functional across the nine cities and US$73.8 million across the six facilities, while continuing to provide services through Governorates. mobile units to impacted areas without functional health facilities. This includes obtaining vaccines and medicines Overall needs in the first three years following the for pregnant women, children and non-communicable earthquake are estimated at US$35.7 million for the cities diseases (NCDs); providing mental health and psychosocial assessed, spread across year 1 (US$14.3 million) and years support services, re-equipping hospitals and laboratories 2–3 (US$21.4 million).  At the governorate level, needs are with medical and diagnostic equipment, monitoring children estimated at US$95.9 million, spread across year 1 (US$38.4 and pregnant women for malnutrition, and working with the million) and years 2–3 (US$57.5 million).   Interventions Water Sector to prevent water-borne disease outbreaks. In should support municipalities to maintain services citywide the medium to long term, it will be important to build human and increase delivery to communities most affected by the resources, restore damaged health care facilities, strengthen earthquake. In the short to medium-term, municipalities emergency care and pandemic preparedness, and engage need support for a holistic area-based approach at city and the private Health Sector to provide affordable services.  neighborhood levels to restore damaged assets.  Education  Cultural Heritage  Damages and losses in education are estimated at The earthquake caused damage to cultural heritage US$30.7 million and US$85.4 million, respectively.  For estimated at US$157.8 million across the nine cities and damages assessed across the six governorates, 22 at US$444 million in the six Governorates. The analysis facilities (0.3 percent of total) were fully destroyed, and targeted archaeological sites, museums, heritage housing, 243 facilities were partially damaged (4 percent of total). other heritage buildings, and religious buildings. Losses to 188 primary schools (4  percent of total) were partially the tourism sector have not been estimated as the sector damaged or destroyed, followed by 41 secondary schools was inactive prior to the earthquake due to conflict.  (2 percent of total), 31 kindergartens (2 percent of total) and five colleges/universities (8 percent of total). The most For the Governorates covered by the assessment, overall impacted governorates were Aleppo and Idlib, which both needs are estimated at US$577.2 million with US$311.7 incurred damages or destruction of up to 10 percent of their million for the year 1 and US$ 346.3 million for the years Executive Summary 17 2 and 3.  Priority interventions are to stabilize damaged networks; sewerage networks), and house-level water assets, survey debris, protect salvaged assets (movable and infrastructure (household connections). It further excludes immovable), and train border police to combat trafficking damage to the Afrin and other dams, which are expected to and in emergency conservation.  account for most damages. The administrative buildings of Water Sector institutions were not reported damaged. Transport   Recovery and reconstruction needs are estimated at The overall damage to the transport sector is estimated US$232.1 million. The immediate requirement of the at US$718 million across the six Governorates and US$56 Water Sector is to provide basic minimum services, restore million across the nine cities. Around 11 percent (675 km) infrastructure for water supply and sanitation to limit the of primary and secondary roads in the six governorates spread of cholera, and fund operational costs for these were damaged. 1 km of bridges were destroyed and 10 facilities. The recovery strategy should consider design km partially damaged. These impacts extend beyond local improvements and improving the efficiency of services damage to physical assets and affect people’s mobility (for example, by reducing energy use). Another short-term and access to critical services and employment. Ports and priority is a dam safety assessment, mainly of fissures in the railway stations do not appear to have been damaged by Afrin and other dams. the earthquake, but Aleppo’s airport has been, with limited information available. The assessment excludes  damage Power  to vehicles and road traffic furniture or infrastructure due to the limited data and time to prepare this RDNA. Damages The Power Sector has sustained moderate damages to motorways and trunk roads have only been assessed estimated at US$32.1 million in assessed areas. It for bridge sections; and damage to tertiary roads, tracks, is estimated that the earthquake has damaged nine residential roads and  service roads are covered under the substations and 405 electricity towers. Although opposition- municipal services chapter.   controlled areas were closest to the epicenter, they were less damaged, as these areas are relatively smaller and have less The recovery and reconstruction needs amount to US$933 power infrastructure than Government-controlled areas. In million for the six governorates and US$73 million for the fact, government-controlled areas contain 73 percent of cities, and include the repair of primary roads, secondary power sector assets while the opposition-controlled area roads, and bridges, and the Aleppo airport. Early recovery contains 11 percent. The link between damaged assets interventions will cost approximately US$373 million in the and electricity service delivery is not straightforward due to six governorates and US$29 million in the nine cities and the nature of electrical networks and the spread of private should start with road clearance, rubble removal, temporary generators in impacted areas. However, based on Nightlight bridges to residential areas, markets and essential services Satellite Imagery, we know that, in impacted areas, 11 such as health and education. Short-term interventions percent of the population (roughly 4.9 million people) had amount to US$560 million in the six governorates and US$44 less nightlight intensity after the earthquake which indicates million in the nine cities (excluding bridge rehabilitation) and reduced or disrupted services.    include rehabilitation works and capacity building for the sector’s institutions.  Needs are estimated at US$ 51.4 million for interventions in the three years following the earthquake. As most Water   earthquake damaged assets were electric towers and substations, the priority is to repair transmission and Damages are estimated at US$129.7 million across the distribution networks, both formal and informal. First efforts nine cities and US$145.4 million across the six assessed are expected to focus on assets in the functional or used Governorates. The water related infrastructure assessed network. Early recovery needs for reconstruction and service includes wells, water towers/tanks, water treatment plants, restoration are estimated at US$16.3 million in year 1 and sewage treatment plants, pumping stations, storage US$35.1 million for years 2 and 3.  reservoirs of approximately 10,000 liters, and water and sanitation facilities. The water sector section of the RDNA excludes underground infrastructure (water supply Executive Summary 18 Agriculture  assets. These findings are corroborated by connectivity maps that showed widespread outages between February 6 Damages and losses in agriculture are estimated at and 11. As of March 5, however, network connectivity appears US$559.2 million and US$1.3 billion, respectively. Roughly to be almost entirely re-established in all affected areas10.   18 percent of all agriculture-related assets are estimated to be at least partially damaged. The loss of access to fields Given the low damages and near full restoration of and reduced availability of agricultural labor will limit the connectivity, the reconstruction needs are very low, current harvest and upcoming growing season. As a result, estimated at US$390,000 over the short term. However, the Agriculture Sector is likely to operate far below capacity priority interventions in the immediate and short terms in the near future and food security will likely deteriorate. include providing emergency communications in areas that The losses of US$1.3b are on account of disruptions to food are still experiencing internet outages and restoring and trade activity, based on the foregone revenue by local food improving mobile phone and broadband services. In the system actors resulting from food insecure people having medium term, it is important to increase investment in the to instead rely on externally provided food assistance. All national fiber backbone infrastructure, and to increase the assessments should be considered preliminary due to resilience of the telecom network by licensing extra radio severe data limitations.  spectrum to provide additional mobile broadband capacity and reduce network congestion.  Needs related to agriculture, food production and food security are estimated at US$2.1 billion. The largest share Public Institutions  relates to early recovery from loss of income for poor, marginalized rural populations and amounts to US$1.6 Damages to public institution facilities, including national, billion. This includes the cost of providing standard reference municipal, and provincial administrative buildings, food baskets to 4 million food insecure people as a result courthouses, prisons, civil registry buildings, civil defense, of the earthquake, for a period of 12 months. In the short traffic police offices, post offices, real estate registration term, infrastructure reconstruction is expected to amount offices are to the tune of 15 percent of facilities in the to US$519 million, needed to restore food security and nine cities (14 facilities out of 91). Damages are estimated restore the agriculture sector’s livelihood and job generation at US$3.1 million, with Aleppo the most affected due potential.  to damage to its courthouses.  Damages across the six assessed governorates are estimated at US$47 million.  Digital Development  Reconstruction and recovery needs across the six Remote analytics were used to assess damage to mobile governorates are estimated at US$57.2 million for early assets in selected cities : 0.8 percent of mobile network 8 recovery and US$3.9 million for short term (1–3 years). The assets were partially damaged, and none were fully needs are mainly concentrated in Government-controlled destroyed. As it was not possible to assess city-level areas and in Northwest Syria under Opposition-Controlled damage to underground assets9 through remote analytics, Areas.  the extent and costs of damage to the fixed network could not be determined. Impacts on service delivery were Environment   determined in the week following the earthquake: a ground- level survey in the governorates of Aleppo, Hama, and Idlib The cost to clear, transport, process and dispose of rubble showed approximately 2.5 million people (69 percent of related to damaged and destroyed buildings is estimated the population) were affected by a degradation in or loss at US$614.6 million. An estimated 122,054 buildings have of connectivity; 62 percent of subdistricts from 90 out of been damaged and 10,629 buildings have been destroyed by 607 communities had severe telecom damage, and 98 the earthquake, constituting 8.4 percent of the total housing communities needed repair or rehabilitation of telecom stock. This has resulted in the accumulation of 58 million 8 Except Idlib, for which no remote sensing data was available. 9 Such as fiber-optic and copper lines. 10 Connectivity Map (DCM) Executive Summary 19 tons of rubble. The governorates of Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama, on their mental health and their development. The elderly and which have suffered the greatest damage to housing, have disabled remain particularly vulnerable to displacement and the largest amounts of rubble and bear the  highest costs loss of public services. The earthquake has also affected the for clean-up. Rubble poses a concern for environmental livelihoods of the poor, most notably, of smallholder farmers. health and safety, and can contain toxic elements including Damage to infrastructure and deteriorating public services asbestos, which require careful handling. Limitations of the are also expected to disproportionately affect the poor.    study include assumptions around the amount of rubble.    Reconstruction and recovery strategy should account for The early recovery needs related to the preservation of the needs of the most vulnerable. This includes providing the environment are estimated at US$307.3 million, while them with the safety and security they require and meeting the overall needs are around US$614.6 million. Areas with their most urgent and basic needs by providing shelters, many destroyed and heavily damaged buildings should be public services, and economic restoration. These efforts prioritized for rubble management, as these have the greatest should be community-driven to build ownership and to risk of contamination (e.g., via release of asbestos). These promote the sustainability of development outcomes.  areas may have blocked roads and access to services, which can be dangerous to residents. Interventions should include Social Protection and Livelihoods  solid waste (rubble) removal in the short term, hazardous waste assessment and treatment (before, during, and after A significant portion of the Syrian population located in rubble removal), and environmental monitoring. Rubble the earthquake-affected areas is in dire need of social should be tested before removal for toxic substances, and protection in the aftermath of the earthquake, with needs toxic waste should be handled according to international estimated at around US$1.3 billion. The earthquake has safety standards. It is unlikely that Syria’s current waste exacerbated existing vulnerabilities following years of management system can handle this volume of rubble or conflict. The reconstruction and recovery strategy would has the capacity to safely dispose of contaminated waste. comprise unconditional cash transfers and labor intensive Therefore, a priority should be to improve Syria’s solid waste works for the most vulnerable earthquake affected people. management sector and identify sites for hazardous waste The estimated needs for social protection in the early disposal, general rubble disposal, and safe testing and recovery period include: handling practices for rubble removal.  • Emergency cash transfers to households who became further vulnerable following the earthquake. Social Sustainability and Inclusion   Priority would be given to (i) households who suffered the loss of their breadwinner, as well as households Vulnerable segments of the population, such as women, with injured member(s); and (ii) the new IDPs. children, the elderly, the disabled, and the poor, were hit • Labor intensive public works, which would provide hardest by the effects of the earthquake. At least 100,000 temporary employment to unskilled/semi-skilled families have been displaced in Aleppo, Homs, Hama individuals not receiving cash transfers, for the and Latakia. The rise in the number of IDPs has led to a rehabilitation of damaged infrastructure in the social significant deterioration in living conditions in IDP camps and sectors. in informal housing, with many female-headed households, unaccompanied and separated children, the elderly, and Following the emergency response, it is expected that a persons with disabilities having taken refuge in these shelters. substantial number of impacted households would remain in Women have become increasingly vulnerable to gender- need of social assistance. It is therefore recommended that based violence in these shelters. Children who have lost the cash transfers initiated under the early recovery phase family members, their homes and their communities have be maintained in the short-to-medium term for poor and suffered psychological distress, with many affected by post- vulnerable households, with flexibility in revising coverage, traumatic stress disorders likely to have long-lasting effects targeting and benefits levels. Executive Summary 20 Introduction Source: Ipsos 21 Context: The Conflict and Disaster Nexus On February 6, 2023, a 7.8 magnitude (Mw) earthquake struck Syria, followed In June 2022, nearly by a 6.4 magnitude (Mw) earthquake on February 20, 2023, along the Türkiye – 9.5 million Syrians, or Syria border. The earthquake has exacerbated the adverse impacts of 12 years of 44 percent of Syria’s conflict for the population of Syria by causing extensive destruction and damage population, were to residential buildings and already weak public infrastructure and killing more than 5,000 individuals. The earthquake caused extensive damage to 38 districts severely food insecure. and 174 sub-districts across six of the country’s 14 governorates, with Aleppo and Idlib being the worst affected. The earthquake had the most severe impacts in the Northwest of Syria. These impacts are compounded by various constraints to delivering humanitarian assistance in government and opposition-controlled areas, and the extensive destruction of infrastructure from the war. These factors have severely limited the country’s ability to cope with the additional destruction and damage inflicted by the earthquake. The earthquake is expected to have led to a significant deterioration in humanitarian conditions, particularly in the Northwest region. In June 2022, nearly 9.5 million Syrians, or 44 percent of Syria’s population, were severely food insecure, with an additional 2.5 million at risk of becoming food insecure.11 There were 6.8 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) as of 202212, with camps and informal settlements hosting 1.9 million IDPs.13 The earthquake has led to a significant deterioration in food security and housing. The complex political fragmentation of the Northern regions has exacerbated vulnerability to natural disasters and constrains humanitarian responses. The Northwest is politically divided into areas with competing political leadership, notably, the Government-controlled areas, the opposition-controlled areas and the AANES. The Government-Controlled areas are mainly in the Western part of the country and include the cities of Latakia, Tartus, and Hama. Opposition-Controlled areas are mostly in the Northern and Eastern parts of the province of Idlib and are controlled by various groups. The AANES in the Northeastern parts of the country, comprises of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) a coalition of Kurdish and Arab fighters. 11 United Nations (2022), Syria, https://news.un.org/en/focus/syria 12 World Bank. 2023. “Syria Economic Monitor – Syria’s Economy in Ruins after a Decade-long War”. 13 Reliefweb. 2023. “Camp Crisis in North-west Syria.” Introduction 22 In all three of these control areas, the protracted conflict has undermined the local authorities’ capacity to build resilient infrastructure and institutions. Military service, displacement, violence, and lack of security led to an extensive brain-drain in most professions and administrations, including urban planning and disaster response. Extensive damage from years of conflict has weakened infrastructure and buildings and left them vulnerable to additional shocks. Syria’s isolation from the international community has limited the transfer of resources that could have alleviated the dire consequences of the war. Limited opportunities for financial transactions, for example, reduced the transfer of remittances and individual assistance to ensure resilient reconstruction of residential buildings. Various factors have limited the humanitarian response to the earthquake. The conflict has damaged equipment needed for disaster response, such as heavy machinery and others, while there is insufficient basic service delivery, notably access to clean water, sanitary systems, and sewage management. The dire economic situation and high inflation have weakened the population’s coping mechanisms. Politically, the complex conflict dynamics have severely hampered post-disaster humanitarian assistance and its coordination e.g., it is difficult to launch assistance to opposition-held areas from government-controlled areas. The closing of border crossings and extensive red-tape have severely complicated and delayed the delivery of humanitarian assistance from Türkiye. Objectives, Approach, and Scope of the RDNA The overarching objective of the RDNA is to inform key players of the impact of the earthquake on the population, physical assets, infrastructure, and service delivery, and to conduct a preliminary estimate of immediate- and short-term physical infrastructure reconstruction and service delivery restoration needs in selected cities and sectors. The RDNA follows a globally established and recognized damage, loss, and needs assessment methodology developed by the WBG, EU, and the UN. This methodology has been applied globally in post-disaster and conflict contexts to inform recovery and reconstruction planning.   Temporal Scope: The RDNA analyses and recommendations focus of the impact and the recovery and reconstruction needs as a result of the earthquake in Syria. Damage, loss, and needs analyses and recommendations were therefore made relative to the pre-earthquake baseline of physical assets.   Geographic scope: The RDNA covers six governorates most impacted by the earthquake: Aleppo, Hama, Idlib, Latakia, Raqqah and Tartous, with an in-depth analysis in nine cities: Aleppo, Harem, Jableh, Afrin, Ad-Dana, Jindaires, Azaz, Sarmada, and Latakia.   Sectoral scope: The RDNA covers macroeconomic and socioeconomic impacts, 10 sectors, and 4 cross-cutting areas: Housing, Power, Transport, Water, Digital Development, Agriculture, Education, Cultural Heritage, Health, Municipal Services, Public Institutions, Environment, Social Protection and Livelihoods, and Social Sustainability and Inclusion. Introduction 23 Methodology of the RDNA The RDNA assesses (i) damage to physical assets; (ii) data received from the ground on unit rates existing prior to economic losses; and (iii) reconstruction and recovery the earthquake. These were further compared with the unit needs. The quantitative results and qualitative analysis of all rates used in the 2022 Syria Joint Damage Assessment16, three were used to assess the macroeconomic and human resulting in the application plus a 10 percent correction factor impacts.  to account for increases in the price of basic materials. The RDNA methodology and scope differ from the Global GRADE that was recently conducted for Syria14. GRADE Extrapolation entails a remote, desk-based assessment of the physical and economic damages incurred as a result of the earthquake. The extrapolation method is used to fill data gaps on sector It estimates the economic damage utilizing a mix of damages across governorates when robust data are not earthquake damage modelling and assessment of capital available. Extrapolation draws on data from city-level deep stock value of different assets and sectors15. Unlike the dives and uses information from neighborhood or district RDNA, GRADE does not evaluate the impact on loss in terms levels; it makes assumptions about areas e.g., the impact of of economic flows (e.g., production or business interruption) conflict on a population, and adapts data from cities to non- or estimates on recovery and reconstruction needs; it only urban areas. For this RDNA, inputs for extrapolation included assesses physical economic damage to capital stock. The satellite imagery, social media analytics, and assessments variation in the GRADE and RDNA results is thus explained by on-ground partners or non-governmental organizations by differences in methodology and in scope. (NGOs). The data were analyzed by applying proportional average damage estimations based on (i) estimated/known The RDNA uses the following key definitions for damage, sector baseline values at earthquake impacted village/ loss and needs: damages are estimated as the replacement settlement; (ii) known average estimated impacts from value of totally, partially, or minimally damaged physical seismic activity (based on research from prior earthquakes assets; losses are estimated from the disruptions to the of similar scale and known building types); (iii) estimated economy that arise from the temporary absence of the damage based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) analysis damaged assets; and reconstruction and recovery needs are (Sentinel-1, ALOS-2); (iv) estimated observed damage from comprised of rebuilding infrastructure and restoring service PAI/social media and (v) prior/current damage assessments delivery and are costed in the immediate and short-term.  by on-ground partners and NGOs in the impacted area. Damages  Losses  Damage estimations were based on the number of Losses are defined as changes in economic flows caused damaged facilities, their physical status (partially damaged by the disaster. Typical forms of losses include the decline or completely destroyed), and the estimated pre-disaster in output in productive sectors, lower revenues, and higher unit costs for each asset class. These unit costs were operational costs to provide services.   estimated by sector specialists, local contacts, and others. Hence, damage is a stock variable. To compute governorate- wide damages, an extrapolation method was used. Unit rates for calculating damages were established based on 14 Syria Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report 15 For more on GRADE methodology, Methodology Note: The Global Rapid post-disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) approach 16 Syria 2022 Joint Damage Assessment Introduction 24 Source: City of Latakia, PLEIADES NEO, DOI: 07FEB2023. World Bank/Ipsos Reconstruction and Limitations and Key Challenges Recovery Needs   The challenges and limitations described above were mitigated as much as possible through the design of the The Syria RDNA also estimates recovery and reconstruction assessment methodology and close coordination with needs – immediate early recovery needs (0–1 year), and international organizations. short-term needs (1–3 years). Reconstruction needs across sectors convert damages to current prices, considering Data accuracy: This is a remotely conducted exercise which inflation, security, insurance premiums, and a build back means that the information relies largely on remote-based better (BBB) factor. Recovery needs also consider soft data and publicly available information. Data from satellite and non-infrastructure–related aspects, such as staffing, imagery have been corroborated and validated by other equipment and/or material, which are necessary to provide sources and means, including publicly available information, services at pre-disaster levels. Reconstruction and recovery social media analysis, night-time lights data, and mobile needs are prioritized and distributed over immediate and signal data. While all efforts are made to improve accuracy, short-term horizons. The needs were calculated based on a remote assessment is broad-brush and provides only an the projected unit rates by applying a standard multiplier indicative overview of the impact. Such approaches are to the existing unit rates to cater for inflation, building back useful to understand the nature and extent of an impact and better, and security premiums.   the needs of returning populations, and may inform later, in- depth assessments and coordinated interventions. Baseline: General and sector-specific pre-earthquake data and information to compare with post-disaster conditions Government engagement: Whenever possible, RDNAs (presented in “physical numbers” e.g., number of houses, are carried out with a government counterpart to promote hospitals, schools etc.). ownership and to validate data. However, given the situation in Syria, this RDNA was conducted solely by the World Bank. The assessment relied heavily on remote sensing data and the expertise of sector and country specialists. Introduction 25 Guiding Principles for Syria Earthquake Recovery Amidst Protracted Conflict Despite the earthquake devastation and challenges emanating from a weak economic, social and institutional environment after a decade of fighting, recovery efforts should aim to mitigate communities’ vulnerabilities and reinforce their resilience to natural and man-made disasters. To ensure responses that address the needs of citizens, undertaking disaster reconstruction and recovery requires a participatory and inclusive approach based on the involvement of all concerned, including authorities, local communities, the private sector, and the international community. The sectoral recovery needs and strategies outlined in this RDNA are guided by a number of principles aimed at improving the quality and the impact of the recovery, emphasizing equity and inclusion and do-no-harm principles, while containing risks. These ten guiding principles are enunciated below: • Recovery efforts should aim at improving living conditions for all the affected population, most notably, vulnerable populations and IDPs, emphasize gender equity and social inclusion. • Marginalization and exclusion have been key drivers of conflict and fragility in the past. Hence, recovery should follow a people-based approach which encourages consultations with communities and empowers them to voice their needs, utilizes social networks to identify and implement recovery solutions, e.g., consultative processes with the community should be undertaken to identify community infrastructure that needs to be built, repaired or enhanced. • Sector must ensure conflict sensitivity in the recovery program designs to prevent conflict over access to aid or services or exclusion of communities or individuals (by, for example, including grievance redress mechanisms, etc.). Increased sensitivity to local dynamics can be done by including granular stakeholder, political economy, conflict, and sectoral analysis accounting for pre- crises grievances and root causes to needs and conflict in advance of project design. • Recovery efforts should aim at improving services beyond the levels before the earthquake. It should prioritize resumption of basic public services, notably water provision and sanitation and healthcare, to protect vulnerable populations and free up capital for individual and private sector investments. • Reconstruction or rehabilitation of essential infrastructure should be undertaken in the most resilient and sustainable way possible, using a BBB and integrated approach, that includes climate and disaster risk reduction considerations. In case of housing, some dwellings and settlements that face a high risk (such as a landslide) may need to be re-clustered. However, the relocation of settlements must be resorted to only when no other in situ solution is possible. Introduction 26 • Recovery and reconstruction should rely on local materials, knowledge and skills. The recovery program should create assets and skills for people affected by the disaster. Creating assets and skills will reduce vulnerability and promote long-term resilience among people. • The recovery program should be implemented effectively in an open, accountable, and transparent manner. • Recovery efforts should aim at enabling the private sector to have a prominent role in the process. • Recovery planning, where possible, must be guided by an area-based approach (ABA) for spatial coordination, prioritization and sequencing of activities. • Given the interdependencies among sectors and systems, inter-sectoral coordination should be at the center of recovery and reconstruction planning and implementation. In addition to the above principles, the below tools and approaches should be relied upon during recovery planning and implementation: Tools to support recovery: Sectors should utilize tools such as detailed hazard mapping, participatory planning exercises, risk-informed planning, facilitated management structures (bringing together communities, local authorities, and the private sector), and rental stock support and more. Bottom-up recovery planning approach: Recovery planning should be a bottom-up planning process that combines consultations with communities including unheard voices of residents, and the displaced, and the more formal and technical representation through local authorities. Community consultations are a core ingredient in the recovery methodology, starting from hands-on, participatory local planning in workshops and meetings with local officials and local community representatives, to reach the final validation and endorsement of developed plans through internal community consultation meetings with a wider community participation on the neighborhood and city levels. Addressing drivers of fragility and vulnerability: Beyond ensuring that all rehabilitation or reconstruction is undertaken as per hazard-resistant standards, recovery and reconstruction aims to address the underlying processes that create vulnerability (even beyond the areas affected by the earthquake) or exacerbate conflict. Marginalization and exclusion have been key drivers of conflict and fragility in the past and continue to undermine social cohesion and stability until today. Any recovery efforts need to ensure that communities are empowered and have their voices heard in the definition of their needs. Recovery should foster reformative rather than restorative processes, tackling the underlying causes of vulnerability and risks on the basis of in-depth studies. Introduction 27 Macroeconomic Impact Economic context before the crisis17 Syria has been confronted with a series of compounding crises before the earthquake. According to official statistics, GDP halved between 2010 and 2020. Nighttime light emissions suggest that GDP has further contracted since 2020, particularly in conflict-intensive regions. Furthermore, severe droughts, damages to the irrigation infrastructure and high input costs have reduced agricultural production since 2021. Economic instability in neighboring Lebanon and Türkiye, and US sanctions under the Caesar Act18 have further exacerbated crisis conditions. After more than a decade of war, a severely degraded health care system is preventing an effective response to the cholera outbreak that started last summer. With nearly half of oil consumption and about one-third of cereal consumption being imported, higher commodity prices following the war in Ukraine have weakened Syria’s external position and have fueled inflation. The market exchange rate of the Syrian pound depreciated by about 76 percent against the US dollar in 2022 alone. Currency depreciation has been accompanied by rising inflation, with food prices, as proxied by the World Food Programme’s (WFP) minimum food basket price index, rising by 93 percent in 2022. 17 For a more detailed analysis of the Syrian economy prior to the earthquake, see the Winter 2022/23 issue of the Syria Economic Monitor of the World Bank. 18 The Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019 gives the U.S. sanctioning authority against entities that support the Syrian government’s ability to commit human rights violations. Macroeconomic Impact 28 Figure 9: Earthquake Intensity and Economic Activity in Syria Source: World Bank staff based on satellite images from the VIIRS and the US Department of Defense’s Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and the shake intensity from USGS ShakeMap. Note: Nighttime light emissions, as shown in the chart, are a proxy for economic activity. Assessment of Disaster Effects19 GDP The earthquake struck significant parts of Syria’s northern Syria’s real GDP contraction is projected to widen by and western territory where a significant portion of 2.3 percentage points as a result of the earthquake.21 economic activity is based. Since the start of the conflict, Losses in economic activity are primarily driven by the a large share of economic activity has shifted to the destruction of physical capital. In addition to physical capital border areas, including the Syria-Türkiye border (Figure destruction, trade activity has been disrupted, resulting in 10). The governorates of Idlib, Aleppo, Hama, and Latakia, higher transaction costs for external trade and the overall which suffered the greatest damage, accounted for about economy.22 Furthermore, earthquakes operate as a negative one-quarter of economic activity in 2022 as measured supply shock that pushes the cost of capital up, reducing by nightlight emissions data, with Idlib and Aleppo alone household incomes and firm profits – contributing to reduced accounting for 18 percent of economic activity.20 These four demand. The assumed reconstruction activity is expected governorates are poorer (as measured by GDP per capita) to offset some of these losses (see below). Accordingly, than the national average and Idlib has the lowest GDP the Syrian economy, which was projected to contract by 3.2 per capita in the country based on the per capita nightlight percent in 2023 prior to the earthquake, is now projected emissions estimate. Areas most affected by the earthquake to decline by 5.5 percent. However, the uncertainty around in Idlib and Aleppo coincide with regions in which conflict is this year’s forecast has widened significantly since the common and Cholera is prevalent. earthquake. A major source of uncertainty is the extent and 19 Given the data limitations, there are clearly significant uncertainties around the impact estimates in this report. 20 In the absence of sub-national GDP data, nightlight emissions have been shown in the economic literature as a good proxy for economic activity. 21 In the RDNA, sector assessment estimates present absolute damages and losses to the capital stock of each sector of the economy. This shock to the stock of capital, together with those to the labor supply due to earthquake-induced fatalities and injuries, and the shock to trade prices from disrupted trade activity with Türkiye in particular, are introduced into the World Bank’s macroeconomic and fiscal model (MFMod) to estimate the impact on real GDP growth. 22 The baseline scenario assumes Syria will not be able to substitute for imports and exports from Türkiye in the short term. Trade costs with Türkiye are estimated to increase by about 4 percent after the earthquake. In light of the fact that Syria imports approximately 40 percent of its goods and exports about 20 percent of its goods from Türkiye, the analysis assumes that Syria’s import and export prices will increase by 1.6 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, in the aftermath of the earthquake, owing solely to disrupted trade activity. Macroeconomic Impact 29 pace of the earthquake-related reconstruction; both depend on the level of foreign financing, since domestic financing is Inflation limited. The earthquake is expected to lead to a substantial increase in inflation. The reduction in goods available, an increase On the expenditure side of GDP, the impact of the earthquake in transport costs, and a rise in overall demand owing to will be most significant on private consumption. Damages reconstruction needs, are all expected to contribute to to residential property have destroyed the wealth of higher inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index). households which will adversely affect private consumption. For 2023, inflation is predicted to rise to 60 percent from a Further, higher inflationary pressures triggered by the supply pre-earthquake projection of 44 percent. The disruption of shock from the earthquake are expected to depress real production and distribution supply chains through Türkiye incomes and restrict private consumption. In addition to the will likely generate inflationary pressures in Northwest direct disruption of economic activity from the destruction Syria. In affected urban areas, the earthquake is expected to of firms and the disruption of daily commerce in the affected increase rents as the supply of habitable dwellings has been areas, indirect effects will also lower GDP. Reconstruction reduced. As families with destroyed homes may alternative activity,23 to the extent it occurs, will increase investment. shelter, rents in non-earthquake-affected areas are also Higher investment will partially offset the decline in projected to rise. The expected rise in inflation will not be consumption, although the final impact on GDP will depend homogeneous across Syria as some non-tradeable goods to what extend investment goods need to be imported. and services are expected to increase disproportionately in earthquake areas where supply chain disruptions are most From the supply side, the earthquake will adversely impact severe. Prices for tradables are also expected to rise more production capacity, mainly through disruptions in trade substantially in earthquake-affected areas, because of a networks. Trade-related businesses and financial services significant cost of trading across areas of control. According will likely be materially affected from weaker demand. to the WFP, the nominal prices of key commodities in the Industry will be affected by supply chain disruptions for food basket, comprised of bread, lentils, vegetable oil, sugar, intermediate inputs or the ability to bring goods to market. and rice, increased by over 10 percent in almost all of the However, the impact of the earthquake on industry is most affected governorates of Aleppo, Hama, Idlib, and expected to be limited overall, as industry accounts for only Latakia two weeks after the earthquake.25 Even in regions 8 percent of employment in Aleppo and Idlib, according to that were not seriously impacted by the earthquake, the cost the Humanitarian Needs Assessment Programme survey of of food and other necessities also increased noticeably. 2022. Key industrial bases in both governorates also remain largely intact. Compared to services and industry, agriculture is usually less affected by earthquakes.24 However, the loss of access to fields and reduced availability of agricultural Labor Market labor are likely to limit the current harvest and upcoming growing season alike. Reconstruction efforts are expected The earthquake is expected to have a limited impact on the to partially offset the decline in economic activity, mainly labor market. Since reported fatalities and injuries account through faster growth in the construction sector. for 0.2 percent of the total working-age population in Syria, the direct impact on labor supply is limited. Moreover, the majority of the labor force in Aleppo and Idlib is employed 23 The baseline scenario assumes 10 percent of destroyed capital stock is rebuilt every year over the next ten years. This takes account of expected weaker reconstruction in non-Government-controlled areas. The analysis also assumes that 50 percent of reconstructed goods are imported. 24 Lackner, Stephanie (2018) “Earthquakes and economic growth”, FIW Working Paper, No. 190, FIW - Research Centre International Economics, Vienna. 25 WFP, Syria markets update (6-16 February 2023) “The devastating earthquake likely to upend food prices”. Macroeconomic Impact 30 in non-capital-intensive service industries that have not is expected to have a negligible impact on exports, which been severely affected by the earthquake. According to the are already very low due to conflict-related disruptions REACH survey, which covers parts of Aleppo and Idlib that and international sanctions after the conflict. Meanwhile, are outside of Government-controlled areas, markets remain imports are expected to increase due to inflationary relatively resilient, with about three-quarters of assessed pressures from trade disruptions in Syria and Türkiye.27 communities reporting markets and shops accessible to Imports are also expected to increase due to reconstruction most of the population.26 While earthquakes are expected activities considering the relatively high import content to cause job losses immediately after the disaster, recovery of capital investment in Syria. This is likely to lead to an and reconstruction efforts will likely lessen this impact; even larger deficit in the country’s trade balance, from 24.6 again, this will depend on the scale and timing of recovery percent of GDP to 26.0 percent of GDP. On the other hand, and reconstruction efforts. the primary and secondary income balance is expected to increase from 22.1 percent to 22.8 percent of GDP, driven primarily by increased net remittances flows.28 Overall, the current account deficit is projected to worsen from the pre- Fiscal Position earthquake baseline of 2.5 percent of GDP to 3.2 percent of GDP following the earthquake. The earthquake is expected to only marginally affect the country’s public finance in the short term. The fiscal deficit is estimated to increase by only 0.2 percentage points of GDP in 2023 from the pre-earthquake baseline of 8.2 percent of Risks to the Outlook GDP. Of the 6.6 million Syrians affected by the earthquake, 4.6 million (70 percent) live in areas outside of Government- Risks to the growth outlook are significant and tilted to controlled areas. Thus, the increase in expenditures to the downside. Economic growth may contract further if meet social and infrastructure needs in the aftermath reconstruction progress is slower than expected, given limited of the earthquake is expected to be financed by external public resources, weak private investment, and constraints aid, and thus only a minor worsening of public finances is to delivering humanitarian assistance in earthquake- anticipated. On the revenue side, the fall in tax revenues is affected areas. Syria’s weak level of preparedness for the expected to be negligible since only a very limited number earthquake and limited coping mechanisms are expected of large corporate taxpayers are located in areas that have to adversely impact the pace of reconstruction and been severely hit by the earthquake. On the other hand, only recovery efforts. Inflationary pressures, most notably on a fraction of the increase in international aid is expected to construction materials, may even increase further if imports support the budget. from Türkiye prove to be severely affected, and/or, if Syria experiences difficulties in substituting imports from Türkiye. Furthermore, significant population displacement from earthquake-affected areas might have a protracted impact Balance of Payments on the labor market. Finally, GDP losses would be materially higher in the medium term should reconstruction efforts be The current account deficit is estimated to worsen, further delayed. mainly from reconstruction investment. The earthquake 26 REACH Syria (2022) “Joint Rapid Assessment of Markets”, February 2023. 27 In 2021, according to the United Nations’ COMTRADE database, Türkiye was the top destination of Syria’s exports and the second largest source of Syria’s imports. Türkiye is Syria’s leading supplier of critical goods such as petroleum products, cement, wheat, and steel. 28 It is expected that numbers of Syrian refugees from countries other than Türkiye will increase. In Türkiye, which hosts around half of the Syrian refugee population, earthquake-induced displacement and the consequent loss of incomes/livelihoods of Syrian refugees in affected areas of Türkiye are likely to negatively impact the flow of remittances into Syria. Macroeconomic Impact 31 Socio-economic Impact Demographic and socio-economic profile of people living in affected areas prior to the earthquake 6.6 million Syrians, approximately 31 percent of the country’s population, live in locations where the earthquake intensity reached level VI (strong shaking) or higher. The 7.8 magnitude earthquake that hit the southern region of Türkiye on February 6 affected significant parts of Syria’s Northern and Western territory. Overall, it is estimated that 6.6 million Syrians live in areas which were affected by the earthquake at an intensity VI (strong shaking) or higher (Figure 11). Governorates most affected, both in terms of population and intensity, are Idlib and Aleppo. In Idlib, 2.2 million individuals live in areas affected by strong earthquake intensity and 571,000 in areas of very strong/severe intensity. Corresponding figures in Aleppo are 3.5 million (strong intensity) and 200,000 (very strong/severe). Focusing on very strong and severe intensity areas only, the most affected districts are Afrin (Aleppo governorate), Harem and Idlib (Idlib governorate). Of the 6.6 million Syrians potentially affected,29 4.6 million (70 percent) live in areas outside of Government-controlled areas.30 The political and conflict landscape of the areas most affected by the earthquake is complex. Among the most affected governorates of Idlib, Aleppo, Hama and Latakia,31 only Hama and Latakia are fully Government-controlled areas. In the governorate of Idlib, almost all the affected population lives in areas controlled by non- 29 Population is defined as “affected” if residing in areas affected by strong – scale VI – or higher earthquake intensity. 30 Distribution of Syria’s territory by area of control is based on information by OCHA, as of July 2022. 31 Most affected governorates are those with populations living in areas affected by strong – scale VI – or higher earthquake intensity. Socio-economic Impact 32 state armed groups. The Aleppo governorate has the most complex political landscape, with all factions in the conflict being in control of parts of its territory.32 The conflict remains the most active outside of Government-controlled areas. Prior to the earthquake, affected areas were already home to the highest concentration of people who had been internally displaced as a result of conflict. As shown in Table 2, as of August 2022, affected areas were home to about 3 million IDPs, close to 50 percent of the entire IDP population of Syria. In Idlib, close to two-thirds of the population were IDPs. Affected areas outside of Government-controlled areas are home to the overwhelming majority of IDPs living in camps (Figure 13).33 Figure 10: Earthquake intensity map and population exposure by intensity level Source: World Bank staff estimates based on USGS ShakeMap Version 12 and HNAP population data as of August 2022. 32 In terms of the population affected in Aleppo governorate, 50 percent live in areas under Government- controlled areas (southern part of the governorate), 36 percent live in areas under the control of the Turkish armed forces and National army (Northwestern areas bordering with Türkiye), and 2 percent live in Opposition-Controlled Areas. The remaining 14 percent of Aleppo’s population is equally split between areas controlled by non-state armed groups (in eastern areas bordering with Idlib governorate) and areas controlled by Syrian Democratic Forces (in eastern areas bordering with Raqqa governorate). 33 The large majority of IDPs in affected areas under government control live in residential areas, housed in collective shelters, hosted by friends/relatives or in rented accommodations. Socio-economic Impact 33 Figure 11: Distribution of conflict events and fatalities in Syria, January to November 2022 Source: World Bank staff estimates based on Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) TABLE 2 : DISTRIBUTION OF IDPS IN AFFECTED AREAS (EARTHQUAKE INTENSITY VI – STRONG - OR HIGHER) BY GOVERNORATE governorate IDPs Out of camp IDPs In camp Total IDPs %IDPs in total population Idlib 801,233 997,728 1,798,961 64.7 Aleppo 908,015 333,229 1,241,244 33.1 Hama 1,235 - 1,235 3.4 Latakia 2,045 - 2,045 9.4 Total in affected areas 1,712,528 1,330,957 3,043,485 46.2 Total in Syria 5,199,119 1,437,045 6,636,164 31.5 Source: USGS ShakeMap version 12 and HNAP population data as of August 2022. Notes: Geographical mapping of population and intensity performed at community level (Amdin4). Socio-economic Impact 34 Figure 12: Distribution of IDP camps in affected areas Source: World Bank Table shows population of interests in communities where earthquake intensity ranked VI (strong) and above. TABLE 3: DEMOGRAPHIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE POPULATION BY CONTROL AREA Age % children % children % elderly % % population in (average) below age 6 age [6-17] (65+) female female headed HH Affected Outside GC 22.1 20.0 29.9 2.1 49.3 7.3 Affected Under GC 28.1 12.1 24.6 3.9 52.0 10.1 National average 25.5 14.0 29.5 3.0 50.5 8.3 Source: WB staff calculations based on the Summer 2022 HNAP demographic household survey. Socio-economic Impact 35 The demographic profile of affected areas that are outside Figure 13: of the Government-controlled areas is on average younger, School enrollment, by age and area of with one in five inhabitants consisting of children below residence the age of six. As shown in Table 3, the average age of 97% 90% the population in affected areas outside of Government- 81% controlled areas is 22 years against 28 years, on average, in 61% 56% affected areas under government’s control. Not surprisingly, the incidence of children below age 6 and school age 21% population (age 6-17) is higher in affected areas outside of government’s control compared to affected areas under government’s control. Interestingly, affected areas under 6-14 15-17 18-24 Government-controlled areas have a higher incidence of Age group population living in female headed households (10 percent, Affected under GoS control Affected outside GoS control against 7 percent in affected areas outside of Government control), as well as a relatively higher female population Source: WB staff calculations based on the Summer 2022 HNAP demographic household survey. share, possibly related to ongoing conflict dynamics. Children living in affected areas outside of Government- Compared to the national average, inhabitants of affected controlled areas are less likely to be attending school areas under Government-controlled areas have relatively and the adult population has significantly lower levels of better labor market outcomes. Many of the observed education. Prior to the earthquake, school aged children differences in labor market outcomes are driven by living in areas affected by the earthquake outside of gender dynamics, with women in affected areas outside government control were significantly less likely to be Government-controlled areas being substantially less likely attending school compared to their counterparts living to participate in the labor market and, despite lower activity in government controlled areas, with a difference of 7 levels, being much more likely to be unemployed (Figure 16). percentage points among children in the 6-14 age group, Irrespective of area of residence, people with higher levels 25 percentage points among children aged 15-17, and 40 of education (secondary and tertiary) are over-represented percentage points among youth aged 18-24 (Figure 14). A among the unemployed. The distribution of employment by similar pattern emerges for the educational attainment rate sector of occupation indicates a relatively higher incidence of the adult population (age 18 and above), particularly as it of employment in agriculture in affected areas outside of pertains to women (Figure 15). government’s control (Figure 18). Figure 14: Education attainment rate of population age 18 and above, by gender and area of residence Outside GoS control Female Under GoS control Outside GoS control Male Under GoS control Outside GoS control Overall Under GoS control 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% None Primary Secondary Tertiary Source: WB staff calculations based on the Summer 2022 HNAP demographic household survey. Socio-economic Impact 36 Figure 15: Labor market indicators, by area of residence LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 57% 12% 10% 53% 7% 49% Affected under GoS control Affected outside GoS control Affected under GoS control Affected outside GoS control National average National average Source: WB staff calculations based on the Summer 2022 HNAP demographic household survey. Figure 16: Labor market indicators, by gender and area of residence LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 80% 40% 60% 30% 40% 20% 20% 10% 0% 0% Affected under GoS control Affected outside GoS control Affected under GoS control Affected outside GoS control Female Male Female Male Female National Male National Female National Male National Source: WB staff calculations based on the Summer 2022 HNAP demographic household survey. Figure 17: Distribution of employment by sector, by gender and area of residence Outside GoS control Female Under GoS control Outside GoS control Male Under GoS control Outside GoS control Total Under GoS control 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Agriculture Industry Construction Services Source: WB staff calculations based on the Summer 2022 HNAP demographic household survey. Socio-economic Impact 37 Figure 18: Figure 19: Share of households without sufficient Share of households having to rely on at income to satisfy essential needs, by area of least one extreme coping strategy, by area of residence residence 79% 48% 30% 72% Affected under GoS control Affected outside GoS control Affected under GoS control Affected outside GoS control Source: WB staff calculations based on the Summer 2022 HNAP demographic household survey. Before the earthquake, households throughout Syria were According to the latest HNAP demographic survey already facing severe welfare challenges. In the summer estimates, 4 percent of the population living in Aleppo and of 2022, according to the latest HNAP demographic survey Idlib governorates resided in buildings which had already data, 85 percent of households in Syria reported insufficient been damaged by the conflict. Initial accounts of earthquake- income to satisfy essential needs in the three months induced displacement indicate 34 000 households having preceding the survey. As shown in Figure 19, in areas hardest been displaced in government-controlled areas (OCHA-DFS), hit by the earthquake, insufficient incomes are relatively and 86,500 households in Northwest Syria (CCCM Cluster most widespread among households living in areas outside - IOM), in areas outside of government control. Assuming of government control. However, the “severity” of welfare an average household size of five members, these figures distress – as proxied by the share of households having to would translate into approximately 600,000 people having rely on at least one extreme coping strategy – is relatively been displaced as a result of the earthquake. Earthquake- higher among households living in Government-controlled induced displacement will add to the staggering count of areas (Figure 20). the 3 million conflict-induced IDPs already living in affected areas. Assessment of the earthquake’s Given pre-existing levels of welfare vulnerability, households living in areas affected by the earthquake have socio-economic impact limited capacity to cope with the direct and indirect impacts of the earthquake. The earthquake poses further challenges As of February 23, reports indicate that the earthquake has to the precarious welfare conditions of households in caused 5,914 deaths and 10,857 injuries throughout Syria. impacted areas. Pre-existing income shortfalls will be further The highest human toll was recorded in areas outside of exacerbated by direct and indirect impacts on sectors of government control (78 percent of total), which is consistent employment, pushing more households to rely on extreme with the relatively stronger earthquake intensity registered in coping strategies, with long lasting consequences in terms these areas.34 The highest number of deaths and injuries has of welfare. Negative income shocks, coupled with damages been recorded in Harim district in Idlib, followed by Afrin (Aleppo affecting the delivery of education services and trauma will governorate) and Jish-Ash-Shugur (Idlib governorate).35 negatively impact welfare. Moreover, disruption in access to critical services, notably in water, sanitation, and health Twelve years of conflict have raised the population’s will further worsen the ongoing cholera outbreak and further vulnerability to the impact of this devastating earthquake. expose the population to water-borne diseases. 34 As of February 21, 1,414 deaths, and 2,357 injuries were reported in Government-controlled areas according to OCHA-DFS. As of February 23, UN Health cluster reported 4,400 deaths and 8,100 injuries in Northwest Syria (OCHA - Flash update No. 13, February 23). 35 OCHA - Flash update No. 13, February 23 Socio-economic Impact 38 Impact on Social Sectors Source: Ipsos Impact on Social Sectors 39 Housing well as Government-controlled areas, Opposition-Controlled Background and Analysis of Areas, and the AANES are conducted based on remote Pre‑Crisis Conditions and Trends sensing data linked to earthquake damage intensity, (shake data/recorded seismic waves), housing damage profiles, The conflict not only reduced the stock of housing units, but proportions of housing units located in urban and rural it also resulted in the rapid migration of rural populations areas, average construction costs, average monthly housing to urban centers, and to significant internal displacement, rent, etc. Figure 21 shows the housing assets that have been forcing a large share of the urban population to live in damaged as a result of the earthquake. makeshift shelters with poor amenities and to construct houses which do not meet building requirements. Roughly Housing damage and loss estimations (i.e., loss of rental 30-40 percent of the housing units built by the private sector income, housing expenditures of families with destroyed are estimated to be informal housing. houses, loss of housing assets, and loss of income to governments) are based on a few critical assumptions concerning the unit cost of construction, distribution of total damaged houses into various housing typologies, Assessment of Disaster Effects: median built-up areas of apartments, villas, and other formal Damage and Loss Estimates housing, informal housing in urban areas, and rural housing units.38 The region experienced an exorbitant increase in The assessment is done across four housing typologies, the cost of ready to buy apartments.39 The damage cost i.e., apartments, villas and other formal housing, informal estimation is based on differential construction costs across housing, and rural housing. Housing units are classified housing typologies.40 The weighted average construction as having been partially damaged if they have incurred cost applied to estimate damage cost is US$ 206/sqm. damages ranging between 20 percent and 40 percent of the capital stock, and to be fully damaged/destroyed Some 87,330 housing units representing 4.8 percent of the if they have incurred damages in excess of 40 percent of total housing stock are considered to have been partially the capital stock.36 The primary assessment is done for damaged and destroyed across the urban and rural areas nine highly impacted cities in Aleppo, Idlib, and Latakia of the six governorates (Table 4). Total housing damages Governorates. Extrapolations of the housing damage across across the six governorates is estimated at US$880.7 million. various housing typologies for the six governorates 37 as 36 Housing units with less than 20 percent damage (no structural damage) are treated as minor damage and these houses are excluded from the analysis. Housing units with minor damage constitute nearly 23 percent of the total housing stock. 37 The governorates of Hama, Tartous, and Raqqah are not included in city-level damage assessments. 38 Based on the housing profiles of the region, it is assumed that the average built-up areas of these typologies are: apartments 120 sqm, villas and other formal housing (150 sqm), informal housing (90 sqm), and rural housing (70 sqm). 39 Property Prices in Syria 40 The unit cost of RC type of construction with essential fittings and fixtures is assumed as US$ 250 for an apartment and villas, US$ 185 for informal housing, and US$ 100 for rural housing, with a weighted average of US$ 206/sqm. This is close to the average construction cost assumed in the recent World Bank and European Syria Joint Damage Assessment (2022). Impact on Social Sectors 40 Figure 20: Estimated Housing Damage in the Region Source: World Bank TABLE 4: NUMBER OF DAMAGED HOUSING UNITS AND ASSOCIATED DAMAGES (IN US$ MILLION) Housing Typology Number of Partially Number of Total of Partially Damages41 Damaged Units Destroyed Units Damaged and Destroyed Units Apartments 23,136 8,997 32,133 496.6 Villa and Other Formal Housing 13,799 5,366 19,165 259.2 Informal Housing 13,367 5,198 18,566 90.6 Rural Housing 12,576 4,890 17,466 34.2 Total 62,878 24,452 87,330 880.7 Note: The housing damage estimate could be considered higher. 41 The weighted average cost of US$ 206 applied in the costing is the lowest estimate and hence did not deflate for the increase in the exchange value of the Syrian Pound, this is nearly US$ 253/sqm (https://syriadirect.org/100-%-increase-how-raising-cement-prices-impact-syrians/) Impact on Social Sectors 41 TABLE 5: GOVERNORATE-LEVEL DAMAGES AND LOSSES (IN US$ MILLION) GOVERNORATES Number of Partially Damaged Damages Losses and Destroyed Units Aleppo 64,724 616.9 43.0 Idlib 17,302 215.2 20.4 Raqqah 61 0.5 0.3 Hama 1,052 9.9 3.3 Tartous 26 0.2 0.1 Latakia 4,165 37.9 2.0 TOTAL 87,330 880.7 69.2 Note: The cost estimates could be considered higher due to the higher estimate of damaged units. TABLE 6: HOUSING DAMAGES AND LOSSES BY AREAS OF CONTROL (IN US$ MILLION) Areas of Control Number of Partially Damaged Damages Losses and Destroyed Units Government-controlled areas 49,778 502 39.4 Opposition-Controlled Areas 23,579 237.8 18.7 Autonomous Administration of 13,973 140.9 11.1 North and East Syria TOTAL 87,330 880.7 69.2 The governorate which incurred the highest damage is housing units consist of apartments and villas. Damages Aleppo at 74 percent of total damages, followed by Idlib. The and losses across the nine cities are estimated at US$133 total economic loss estimated across the six governorates million and US$10.5 million, respectively42 (Annex 1.1). The is about US$69.2 million (Table 5). sector has incurred one of the highest damages from the earthquake likely due to high concentration of apartments Across the nine assessed cities, the number of housing (salient typology in highly urbanized Syria), inadequate units assessed to have been damaged and destroyed are structural quality including lack of seismic resilient standards estimated at 9,278 units (27.8 percent of total stock) and in an already poor governance environment, associated 3,669 units (12 percent of total stock), respectively. The challenges of importing construction materials due to the most impacted cities are Jandairis, Azaz, and Harem. Nearly ongoing conflict, etc. 70 percent of the total partially damaged and destroyed 42 The average rent is assumed as US$ 200 per month. Impact on Social Sectors 42 The total cost of reconstruction and recovery needs Sectoral Reconstruction and estimated at the Governorate and Control Zone levels is Recovery Needs Assessment about US$1.1 billion. The housing reconstruction needs are highest for Aleppo and Idlib at US$ 802 million and US$280 Reconstruction and recovery needs estimations in housing million, respectively (Table 7). This pattern is consistent embed provisions for physical and financial contingencies with the city level damage profile and typologies of housing (10 percent inflation), and additional cost incurred to comply damaged experienced by Aleppo and Idlib cities. with robust seismic resilient building by-laws, including build-back better practices. The total reconstruction cost of The recovery needs in the Government-controlled areas share these cities is estimated at US$173 million, and the recovery nearly 57.7 percent of the total recovery needs (Table 8). investment needs at US$213 million measured at current prices (Annex 2.1). TABLE 7: HOUSING RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS (IN US$ MILLION) Governorates Reconstruction Rehabilitation Total Total Reconstruction Needs of Needs of Partially Reconstruction Needs (Reconstruction + Destroyed Units Damaged Units Needs Service Costs) Aleppo 572.8 229.1 802.0 969.3 Idlib 199.8 79.9 279.7 344.4 Raqqah 0.5 0.2 0.7 1.1 Hama 9.2 3.7 12.9 40.4 Tartous 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.5 Latakia 35.2 14.1 49.3 52.7 TOTAL 817.8 327.1 1,144.9 1,408.5 Note: The above estimates are influenced by the higher end estimate of damaged units, although the application of the 1.3 multipliers for estimating the recovery need seems reasonable considering the cost escalation and investment risks. TABLE 8: DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING DAMAGE COST AND RECOVERY NEEDS BY AREAS OF CONTROL (IN US$ MILLION)43 Areas of Control Total Reconstruction Needs Total Reconstruction Needs Percentage Including Service Cost Government-controlled areas 572.4 809.9 57.7 Opposition-Controlled Area 309.1 380.3 27.0 Autonomous Administration of 263.3 218.5 15.3 North and East Syria TOTAL 1,144.9 1,408.5 100.0 Note: Estimates are influenced by the higher estimate of housing damage. 43 The higher reconstruction and recovery needs in government-controlled areas can be attributed to several factors, such as higher population density and urbanization, which has exacerbated the effects of damage cost and recovery needs in the housing sector. Impact on Social Sectors 43 PRIORITIZATION AND SEQUENCING OF RECOVERY INVESTMENT Recovery investment needs consist of (a) rehabilitation and reconstruction of damaged houses as per seismic resilience construction standards and building back better practices, and (b) technical assistance for designing and implementing the housing recovery program, and early recovery provision of transit accommodation to homeless and other vulnerable families. An essential element of the housing recovery framework is to develop and implement a need-based prioritization and investment sequencing strategy. While this process should conform to the overall recovery strategy for the earthquake-affected regions, one of the first considerations could be to sequence the investments to address the rehabilitation of the partially damaged housing units which will place a large number of the damaged housing stock on the housing market. Prioritization of the rehabilitation of partially damaged housing units could jump-start the recovery process and meet community expectations. Demand- driven recovery strategies for supporting rehabilitation of partially damaged housing units would be more effective to increase the housing stock in the short term as compared to the reconstruction of fully damaged multi-story residential buildings in the urban areas. Investment needs within the first year are estimated at US$446.5 million and US$961.7 million in years 2 and 3 (Table 9). In addition to rehabilitating partially damaged housing units in prioritized geographical areas, the early phase interventions should support capacity building and other activities essential for service delivery; they should also address housing vulnerabilities of families impacted by the disaster and loss of livelihoods, including addressing the special needs of families affected by Fragility Conflict and Violence (FCV) challenges. HOUSING RECOVERY FRAMEWORK One of the first tasks should be to formulate a sustainable and inclusive housing recovery strategy which not only addresses the need to restore damaged housing units but also applies the recovery process to address inherent housing vulnerabilities and fragilities of families affected by the protracted conflict and earthquake. A realistic housing recovery strategy should address institutional challenges related to access to land and housing supply, and demand mismatches through a combination TABLE 9: PHASING HOUSING RECOVERY INVESTMENT NEEDS (IN US$ MILLION) Types of Investments Early Recovery Short-Term Recovery Total Recovery (0–1 year) (1–3 years) Investment Need Rehabilitation and Reconstruction of 343.5 801.4 1,144.9 Damaged Houses Technical Support and Service Provision, 103.0 160.3 263.3 including Transit Housing TOTAL 446.5 961.7 1,408.2 Impact on Social Sectors 44 of homeowner-based financing strategies and partnerships with the private sector and civil society. The strategy should also address the institutional challenges entailed in regularizing informal housing through incentives and inclusive participation of local communities. Effective transformation of the defunct rent control policy is pertinent for promoting the rental market. While a mass housing development strategy is required to address supply and demand mismatches, policy guidelines and strategic interventions to address housing vulnerabilities and risks to home buyers should form the fulcrum of a sustainable housing recovery program. A housing reconstruction and recovery strategy in the urban housing context, which is comprised of a majority of multi-story buildings, must be based on effective urban planning guidelines, enforceable development regulations, and robust building by-laws. The common practice of financing core housing units, mostly implemented in the case of single-story tenements and rural housing, is not practical in the case of rehabilitation and reconstruction of multi-story buildings which cannot be sub-divided in terms of reconstruction units and beneficiary targeting. Application of seismic resilient construction standards and building-back-better practices would lead to land consolidation and land reorganization and may require area-based recovery approaches. The housing recovery financing strategy shall address operational mechanisms such as financial assistance subsidies, community-based housing mortgage and risk transfer mechanisms, and co-financing by homeowners and development partners. Limitations of assessment and recommendations for future assessments  Some of the activities that could be prioritized are: (a) field-based damage assessment and classification of damaged houses into fully damaged and partly damaged based on their structural conditions, (b) vulnerability assessment of homeowners, (c) institutional assessments of the local governments, (d) review of urban planning and housing development policies, including current rent control policy, (e) review of development regulations and controls, including their compliance with seismic resilience guidelines, (f) formulation of sustainable housing recovery financing strategies, (g) formulating the affordable housing policy, (h) developing area-based and community-based recovery action plans for cross sector coordination of recovery interventions, (i) formulating community and private sector partnership frameworks for inclusive and sustainable recovery interventions, etc. Most of these policies and operational mechanisms shall be addressed during the early recovery phase. There are a number of limitations to this assessment. First, this assessment is based on information obtained from the remote sensing analysis of damaged buildings. While fully damaged buildings could be reasonably identified through imagery analysis, the number of apartments within damaged residential buildings and the number of partially damaged units are estimated based on levels of damage triangulated with available housing statistics. Hence, it is possible that the damage estimates could be higher. Secondly, the nine cities selected for detailed analysis are identified from the highly impacted areas of the three governorates of Aleppo, Idlib, and Latakia. Hence, these samples are skewed, and their profiles cannot be extrapolated to the region. Third, since the housing stock which has been estimated through the remote sensing analysis is significantly different from the 2004 census, and houses have been damaged during the conflict, the housing baseline for 2023 is based on the projected population, average household size and housing occupancy ratios. Fourth, extrapolations of the damaged housing units to Raqqah, Hama, and Tartous Governorates as well as Government-controlled areas, Opposition-Controlled Areas, and Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria are based on earthquake intensity and projected population and housing stock. Some of these estimations need to be verified through detailed needs assessments at the design phase of housing recovery interventions. Impact on Social Sectors 45 Health percent in southern Syria. Personnel shortages were also a Background and Analysis of challenge. It is estimated that over 50 percent of physicians Pre‑Crisis Conditions and Trends left northeast Syria.47 In Aleppo, only 13 health staff are available per 100,000 residents, catastrophically below the Prior to the earthquake, and despite continued conflict, emergency standard of 22 staff.48 Public health expenditure Syria’s health outcomes were slowly recovering. Infant has declined by over 50 percent since 2011,49 while out- mortality rates were equivalent to the Middle East and North of-pocket payments are high, approximately 53.7 percent Africa (MENA) regional average (18 per 1000 live births), of health expenditure (2012 data).50 The role of the private while the maternal mortality ratio (31 per 100,000 live births) sector for provision of tertiary care was significant, (393 was lower than the MENA regional average (57 per 100,000 private hospitals and 114 public hospitals). live births). Improvements were evident for both acute and 44 chronic malnutrition.45 The national prevalence of wasting for children under five years of age had declined from 3 percent Assessment of Disaster Effects: in 2016 to 1.7 percent in 2019, and for stunting from 14.2 percent to 12.6 percent. Vaccination coverage, however, saw Damage and Loss Estimates51 a decline. Measles vaccine coverage, for example, dropped from 86.5 percent in 2016 to 79.2 percent in 2019. The RDNA estimated damage from the earthquake to nine types of public and private health facilities, shown in Table Health care services faced multiple challenges even pre- 10. The six affected governorates have an estimated 1,067 earthquake. In 2021, only 48 percent of public primary facilities, of which 314 were already damaged or destroyed care centers and 47 percent of public hospitals were fully before the earthquake. Public medical centers are the most functioning. The impact of conflict on functionality varied 46 numerous (there are 740), followed by public hospitals (211). across regions, with 55 percent of public health centers The RDNA also estimated several categories of losses, also not functioning in northeast Syria compared to only 12 shown in Table 10. 44 data.worldbank.org 45 MOH, UNICEF, WHO, UNFPA, WFP (2019) 46 Health Cluster. WHO Snapshot on WoS Health Resources and Services Availability Monitoring System (HeRAMS) 2021 Q3: Jul-Sep 47 WHO Syria Flash Appeal for Northeast Syria, 27 January 2022 48 Health Cluster, WHO Snapshot on WoS Health Resources and Services Availability Monitoring System (HeRAMS) 2021 Q3: Jul-Sep 49 Allahham et. al, 2022 50 data.worldbank.org 51 Damage may be classified as Partially Damaged if less than 40 percent of the asset is damaged, structure is still sound and repair cost would be less than 40 percent of the total asset value. Damage may be classified as Completely Destroyed if more than 40 percent of the asset has been damaged or if the replacement cost of the damages would be more than 40 percent of the total value of the asset. Any sector that needs to apply another percentage should discuss with the coordination team before moving ahead with the estimations. Impact on Social Sectors 46 TABLE 10: HEALTH SECTOR DAMAGE AND LOSS INVENTORY TABLE (IN US$ MILLION) Asset Types Baseline Partial Damage Destroyed Total Cost Health Administration Building 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hospital (Private) 119.0 14.0 0.0 16.6 Hospital (Public) 168.8 6.5 0.4 126.7 Hospital (Unknown) 14.0 4.0 0.0 25.5 DAMAGE Medical Center 589.7 14.5 1.7 3.7 Medical Point 47.3 0.3 1.0 0.6 Polyclinic 10.5 0.4 1.0 0.6 Specialized Medical Center 40.4 1.6 0.1 12.6 Teaching Hospital 1.0 1.0 0.0 16.6 Total Damage 202.9 Cost of demolition and rubble removal 2.8 Higher expenditures for treatment of injured 56.6 Higher expenditures on patients referred to other facilities 17.0 LOSS Lower revenues for attending lower number of patients 14.3 Higher expenditures for control of cholera 6.8 Total Loss 97.5 Total Effect (Damage and Loss) 300.4 In the affected areas, the earthquake caused some damage caused by the earthquake, and indirect costs associated with to health facilities, but considerably less than the unrepaired those injuries, were the largest category of loss, amounting damage from the conflict. 3.9 percent of health facilities to US$ 56.6 million. Losses were calculated based on the in the affected area were either damaged (3.5 percent) or following assumptions: (i) demolition and rubble removal destroyed (0.4 percent). In total, this damage is estimated at would make up the same percentage of reconstruction US$129.1 million. costs (1.0 percent) as in a in other contemporary earthquake reconstruction programs; (ii) direct and indirect costs of Other economic losses in the Health Sector were also injuries average US$5.3 based on a 2013 review with an substantial, amounting to a total of US$97.5 million. Higher inflation adjustment;52 (iii) extrapolation of annual expected health expenditures required for the treatment of injuries hospitalizations from other settings;53 (iv) an assumption 52 Hadley K H Wesson, Nonkululeko Boikhutso, Abdulgafoor M Bachani, Karen J Hofman, Adnan A Hyder, The cost of injury and trauma care in low- and middle-income countries: a review of economic evidence, Health Policy and Planning, Volume 29, Issue 6, September 2014, Pages 795–808, https://doi.org/10.1093/heapol/czt064 53 James Macinko, Veneza B. de Oliveira, Maria A. Turci, Frederico C. Guanais, Palmira F. Bonolo, and Maria F. Lima-Costa, 2011: The Influence of Primary Care and Hospital Supply on Ambulatory Care–Sensitive Hospitalizations Among Adults in Brazil, 1999–2007, American Journal of Public Health 101, https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2010.198887 Impact on Social Sectors 47 that referrals, including to private facilities, will cost US$1000; TABLE 11: TOTAL HEALTH SECTOR DAMAGE AND LOSS BY GOVERNORATE (v) extrapolation of out-of-pocket costs per capita from pre- (IN US$ MILLION) conflict data; and (vi) costs of delivering outreach services from other conflict settings.54 Losses are assigned to cities Governorate Total Damage Total Loss and governorates proportionately to each area’s respective share of the total damage. Aleppo 150.1 72.2 Idlib 32.3 15.5 Damage and loss are highly geographically concentrated. Annex 1.2 shows damage and loss estimates in the nine Raqqah 0.0 0.0 cities assessed in depth, which accounted for 57.7 percent of all Health Sector damage across the affected area. Table Hama 1.9 0.9 3 shows damage and loss estimates by governorate. Most Tartous 0.0 0.0 damage and loss to the Health Sector occurred in Aleppo Governorate, with US$62.3 million in damages and US$29.9 Latakia 18.6 8.9 million in losses; almost one third of all damage occurred Total 202.9 97.5 in Aleppo city. Even within cities such as Aleppo, damage is sometimes concentrated in specific pockets, illustrated in Figure 22. The Health Sector in Raqqah Governorate and Tartous Governorate was estimated to face no damage or TABLE 12: TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSS BY loss; the RDNA also found no damage or loss in the cities of AREAS OF CONTROL (IN US$ MILLION) Harem, Ad-Dana, Jableh, or Sarmada. Areas of Control Total Total Damage Loss To place a dollar value on infrastructure damage in the Health Sector in a consistent way, the RDNA uses the same costs Government-controlled areas 106.1 51 per facility employed in earlier exercises in 2018 and 2022.55 These costs were adjusted to reflect changes in prices Autonomous Administration of 4 1.9 overall between the pre-crisis period and the immediate pre- North and East Syria earthquake period. For hospitals, cost estimates are based Opposition-Controlled Areas 92.8 44.6 on the average floorspace of hospitals of each type included in the 2022 assessment. Total 202.9 97.5 Health service delivery was also impacted. The Syrian health system, which was already suffering from the cumulative effect of the conflict, the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent cholera outbreak in 2022, is struggling to cope with the increasing health needs triggered by the earthquake. Reports from impacted governorates suggest that hospitals in impacted areas are unable to accommodate more patients and are redirecting incoming patients to smaller health centers and clinics. There are shortages in intensive care units, neurosurgery rooms, and of respirators in hospitals, but also in basic materials such as medical gauze, analgesics, anesthetics, first aid kits, splints, and plates for bone fractures56. Hospitals and health facilities 54 WHO, 2015, “Integrated outreach activities launched in Yemen” 55 World Bank, 2018, “The Mobility of Displaced Syrians: An Economic and Social Analysis”; and World Bank, 2023, “Syria: Joint Damage Source: Ipsos Assessment of Selected Cities, December 2022” 56 Mercy Corps – Humanitarian Access Team, Feb 2023 Impact on Social Sectors 48 Figure 21: Health Sector damage and housing damage density in Aleppo city Source: World Bank lack medical consumables, orthopedic surgical equipment, to the water networks reported, turbidity and contamination anesthetics, ventilation devices, blankets and beds, of water, there is an increased risk of waterborne illness, intravenous fluids, blood and oxygen (WHO Whole of Syria including exacerbation of pre-existing cholera and hepatitis Earthquake Response - Situation Report, 13–19 February A outbreaks.59 With thousands of displaced people living 2023). Shortage of health care professionals, a pre-existing in shelters in Aleppo, Hama, Tartous and Latakia, ensuring challenge, has forced hospitals to increasingly rely on recent essential health care, water and hygiene, is important to graduates from medical faculties in Idlib and Aleppo, who minimize the risk of disease outbreaks and transmission have become the healthcare sector’s primary workforce, due to crowded conditions in shelters, including the spread with specialist doctors in short supply (Mercy Corps – of respiratory illness ( COVID-19 and influenza), as well as Humanitarian Access Team, Feb 2023). It is therefore not those related to pre-existing outbreaks which are seeing surprising that approximately 20 percent of communities an increase (cholera, hepatitis A and measles, scabies, lice report not having access to healthcare in a recent survey57 and acute watery diarrhea). (WHO Syrian Arabic Republic (REACH) in two of the impacted governorates. – Situation Report 5, February 15, 2023). The earthquake impacted 3.7 million children and Pregnant and Lactating There is a 28 percent increase in morbidity across a range Women (PLW) and, while so far available data from rapid of health conditions, particularly among women and assessments indicates that there is no upward trend in acute children, which is expected to worsen health and nutrition malnutrition in the assessed areas, the increase in diarrheal outcomes.58 The leading causes of morbidity among all diseases is expected to worsen the nutrition situation of age groups were Influenza-Like Illness (60.6 percent) and vulnerable children and women (UNICEF Humanitarian Acute Diarrhea (23.7 percent), with increasing concerns Situation Report No. 2, February 25, 2023). about the resurgence of cholera. With significant damage 57 Limited to Greater Idlib and Northern Aleppo 58 Table 1 - Syrian Arab Republic: EPWARs Weekly Epidemiological Bulletin, 2023 – Week 7 – February 12-18, 2023 59 WHO Syrian Arabic Republic – Situation Report 5, February 15, 2023 Impact on Social Sectors 49 TABLE 13: DISEASE SURVEILLANCE DATA FOR RECENT WEEKS Disease Name 23W04 23W05 23W06 23W07 Total Acute bloody diarrhea 106 84 60 93 343 Acute Diarrhea 9,595 8,562 5,904 6,794 30,855 Acute Flaccid Paralysis 7 6 4 6 23 Acute Watery diarrhea (suspected cholera) 210 135 24 77 446 Brucellosis 103 108 50 84 345 chicken pox 285 194 84 107 670 Influenza Like Illness 23,530 21,631 14,460 18,977 78,598 Leishmaniasis 1,754 1,409 639 1,079 4,881 Lice 1,054 987 252 396 2,689 Measles and Rubella 304 399 169 267 1,139 Meningitis 37 41 10 22 110 Mumps 22 28 6 12 68 Others 149 220 130 195 694 Pertussis 283 291 220 238 1,032 SARI 679 761 652 763 2,855 Scabies 433 343 255 463 1,494 Suspected Hepatitis (Jaundice) 881 760 601 558 2,800 Tuberculosis 49 44 31 52 176 Typhoid Fever 178 163 67 90 498 Total 39,659 36,166 23,618 30,273 129,716 Source: WHO, Syrian Arab Republic: EWARS Weekly Epidemiological Bulletin, 2023 Week 07 (12-18 February 2013) While the number of trauma and injury cases have to plastic and orthopedic surgery, as well as provision of gradually declined since the earthquake, the need for post- physical rehabilitation, prosthetics and assistive devices for traumatic injury aftercare and support for management several trauma and injury cases. Mobile teams are receiving of people with existing NCD conditions is emerging. Pre- frequent requests from displaced and affected persons to earthquake Syria had a high burden of NCDs, with ischemic supply and/or replace their non-communicable disease heart disease, stroke, chronic kidney disease and diabetes (NCD) medications as many have lost their monthly regimen among the top causes of death (IHME). These require during the earthquake, and local primary health care centers sustained care and medication, which are in short supply (PHCs) are struggling to meet the surge in demand. following the earthquake. In addition, there are needs related Impact on Social Sectors 50 Mental health is a growing concern, especially among children and first responders who are experiencing burnout and distress. Several reports point to the need for mental health support due to the extreme trauma and stress resulting from the earthquake on affected populations, especially children who may also be experiencing family separation, and exposure to unsafe environments.60 Psychosocial support is also needed for local populations, including health workers who have been involved in the immediate response, and have been impacted by the collapse of their homes, schools and hospitals, and the deaths of family and loved ones (WHO Whole of Syria Earthquake Response - Situation Report, 13-19 February 2023). Sectoral Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment (including cost estimates) SECTOR RECOVERY STRATEGY (INCLUDING EARLY RECOVERY AND MEDIUM-LONG TERM RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION) The health recovery strategy needs to address the compounded impacts of the conflict, COVID-19, the cholera outbreak and the earthquake on the health system. It requires reconstruction and rehabilitation of health care infrastructure, systematic regulation of the growing private healthcare sector, while strengthening service delivery and quality of care, the medicine and equipment supply chain, health workforce, health information systems and health financing. In the near term the focus should be on transitioning from emergency response to recovery and delivery of essential health services, with an additional focus on displaced persons living in shelters and other temporary accommodations. In the medium to long term the focus should be on building institutional and human resource capacity to deliver quality health services, enhance emergency and pandemic preparedness and reduce the current high out-of-pocket expenditures on health to facilitate universal health coverage. The specific focus areas are provided in the next two sections on infrastructure reconstruction and service delivery restoration. INFRASTRUCTURE RECONSTRUCTION While this assessment focuses on the damage and recovery needs in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake, addressing other outstanding health infrastructure needs, i.e., facilities that were damaged and non-functional before the earthquake, should be considered as part of the larger health sector development efforts. Reconstruction in Aleppo Governorate should be prioritized given the heavy impact of the earthquake. In general, criteria for investments in reconstruction should include the size of the potential beneficiary population, the non-availability of functioning Public Institutions alternatives for beneficiaries, and the anticipated reduction in referrals to private facilities. Restoring local public service delivery is a key enabler for infrastructure reconstruction, because relatively expensive referrals to private facilities are absorbing large amounts of response funding that could otherwise be deployed to BBB. A pressing immediate need is that core medical capabilities, especially those requiring heavy equipment such as CT scanners and facilities that can accommodate them, are available in each of the three areas of control. Health services are critically dependent on the availability of electricity, either through generators or from the grid, and the latest WHO situation update indicates challenges in this area. Therefore, plans to reconstruct power infrastructure should take into account Health Sector needs. 60 WHO Health Sector update Earthquake Syria, February 21, 2023; UNICEF Humanitarian Situation Report No. 2, February 25, 2023 Impact on Social Sectors 51 SERVICE DELIVERY RESTORATION residents of non-Government-controlled areas may differ if they cannot be referred to facilities in Aleppo and Damascus. The priority in the near term is to restore essential health services in functional facilities, while continuing to provide In the medium to long term, it is important to build the services through mobile units to impacted areas without human resource capacity of the health work force in Syria, functional health facilities, to prevent excess mortality and health infrastructure, to meet the disease burden of the and morbidity. This requires (a) ensuring medicine and country. This requires a strong framework to provide mental vaccine supply to primary health care facilities for care and health and psychological support services and specialized management of pregnant women and child illnesses, and care, such as cardiac specialists, orthopedics etc. With management of NCDs, such as diabetes and hypertension; the scaling up of an essential package of health services, (b) capacitating primary health care workers to screen it is important to ensure the quality of these services by for mental health issues to enable referral to trained establishing mechanisms to measure and monitor quality of psychosocial support providers; (c) re-equipping hospitals care provided to patients. Another priority is to strengthen and laboratories with essential and life-saving medical and emergency care and pandemic preparedness, which are diagnostic equipment to enable them to provide the required globally emerging as important investments to enhance a care and treatment to patients; (d) referrals and transport country’s ability to respond effectively during natural or man- given the shortages of specialist doctors in the impacted made disasters. With climate change increasing the risk areas; (e) screen and monitor children and pregnant of communicable diseases and malnutrition due to water women for malnutrition, and especially among displaced scarcity, affecting agricultural production and the emergence populations, providing micronutrient supplements and food of new diseases due to changing climatic conditions, to prevent them from becoming undernourished; and (f) enhancing preparedness is key to a proactive rather than working with the Water Sector to treat drinking water, create reactive response. Pursuing these priorities needs a clear awareness on hygiene practices and facilitate maintenance framework to engage and leverage the private Health Sector, of sanitation facilities, particularly in shelters for displaced such that it complements Public Institutions to address populations. The same broad priorities apply equally to the gaps without high out of pocket expenditures for patients. three areas of control, but access to tertiary medical care for All of this requires increased investment in the Health Sector to reverse declining per capita health spending. Source: City of Latakia, PLEIADES NEO, DOI: 07FEB2023. World Bank/Ipsos Impact on Social Sectors 52 TABLE 14: TOTAL COST OF HEALTH NEEDS BY GOVERNORATE (IN US$ MILLION) Governorate Needs category Cost Aleppo Infrastructure Reconstruction 195.2 Service Delivery Restoration 90.1 Idlib Infrastructure Reconstruction 42.0 Service Delivery Restoration 19.4 Raqqah Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 Service Delivery Restoration 0.0 Hama Infrastructure Reconstruction 2.4 Service Delivery Restoration 1.1 Tartous Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 Service Delivery Restoration 0.0 Latakia Infrastructure Reconstruction 24.1 Service Delivery Restoration 11.1 Total 385.4 TABLE 15: TOTAL COST OF HEALTH NEEDS BY AREA OF CONTROL (IN US$ MILLION) Areas of Control Needs category Cost Government-controlled areas Infrastructure Reconstruction 79.9 Service Delivery Restoration 36.9 Autonomous Administration of Infrastructure Reconstruction 12.4 North and East Syria Service Delivery Restoration 5.7 Opposition-Controlled Areas Infrastructure Reconstruction 171.4 Service Delivery Restoration 79.1 Total 385.4 Impact on Social Sectors 53 Recommendations and Limitations The key emerging recommendations from the assessment are: • Restoring the functionality of undamaged or partially damaged health facilities to scale up service delivery. Mobile health clinics continue to provide health services to areas with no accessible health facilities. • Providing essential life-saving medicine and equipment to hospitals and primary health facilities to facilitate adequate care for patients. • Continuing to screen and monitor for infectious diseases and malnutrition and take early corrective action, offer food supplementation, infant/young child feeding, sanitation, hygiene practices and water treatment to reduce morbidity and mortality from cholera and other conditions. • Providing mental health screening and NCD management and medicines at the primary care level to avoid adverse events for manageable conditions. • Leveraging the private sector and partners for resources and develop a medium to long term Human Resources for Health (HRH) strategy to build a better equipped health workforce. Also, exploring the possible use of telemedicine services to support service delivery. The main limitations of the Health Sector assessment, beyond those noted earlier for the overall assessment, are: • Information on disruption of health services is variable across governorates and has been used to provide generalized recommendations across impacted areas. Several deep-dive assessments are currently underway by partners, such as WHO, which will likely provide more robust information in the coming weeks to further validate the recommendations. • Idlib is not covered in the WHO EWARS weekly epidemiological report, and therefore limited-service delivery information is available from that governorate. • The Assessment primarily focuses on the shelters; therefore, access, sanitation and hygiene issues for un-displaced people may not be well reflected. • Information on the capacity and utilization of health services was not available for this assessment, and the assessment had to rely on the functionality of health facilities as a proxy for where and if people were unable to obtain medical care. • For most facilities (72 percent), the assessment could not determine whether a facility was fully functional or not. • Data on market prices and input costs to reconstruct health facilities were not available for the assessment, which had to use proxy estimates drawing on data from other countries. • Estimates of damage to private hospitals in areas not covered by the in-depth city analyses are not included in this analysis. Impact on Social Sectors 54 Education access to basic operational services such as clean water, Background and Analysis of energy, and sanitation services, not to mention internet and Pre‑Crisis Conditions and Trends school meals.66 Before the conflict, Syria exceeded the MENA region indicators on primary and secondary enrolment rates61 and Assessment of Disaster Effects: participated in international learning assessments (e.g., TIMSS). Since the onset of the civil war, approximately Damage and Loss Estimates 2.5 million children and youth in the Northwest have been out of the school system (30 percent of the population Damages have been assessed for 803 education facilities ages 5–17). 62 By 2017, 40 percent of schools (6,841 out of across nine affected cities in Northwestern Syria and 17,120) had been damaged or destroyed.63 extrapolated to the six affected governorates and their 6,632 education institutions (K-12 and colleges/universities):67 Before the earthquake, the nationwide out-of-school rate Aleppo, Idlib, Latakia, Hama, Raqqah, and Tartous. was 18 percent, with much higher rates being recorded in the Northwestern governorates such as Raqqa (35 In the cities assessed, overall infrastructure damages percent), Idlib (28 percent) and Aleppo (26 percent). have been calculating at US$21.2 million. By extrapolating School dropout is more prominent among older children damages to the to the governorate level from the 9 assessed between the ages of 12 and 17. The most cited reasons cities to the six most affected Governorates (Aleppo, Idlib, for non-attendance were the lack of access to schools and Latakia, Hama, Raqqah, and Tartous), give overall education the need to work. 64 Learning spaces, children and teachers infrastructure damages of US$31 million.68 The earthquake continued to be affected by other crises, including COVID-19, damaged or destroyed 126 educational facilities from K-12 a cholera epidemic, and floods. 65 Even when schools or to higher education facilities across the nine cities assessed other learning spaces remained open, they had little or no (15 percent of total). Based on the data collected for this 61 Sieverding, M. et.al (2020). Education Interrupted: Enrollment, Attainment, and Dropout of Syrian Refugees in Jordan. https://hicn.org/wp- content/uploads/sites/10/2020/04/HiCN-WP-324.pdf 62 Joint Education Needs Assessment for Out of School Children North West Syria; Assistance Coordination Unit, Save the Children, Syria Response Education Cluster; December 2019  63 Victoria University (2022). Syria education and development investment case: economic, social and psychological costs and risks resulting from not investing in education systems in Syria 64 UNICEF (2022). Humanitarian Needs Overview: Syrian Arab Republic. https://www.unicef.org/mena/media/15726/file/hno_2022_final_ version_210222.pdf.pdf 65 Camps of Northwest Syria and Winter Floods. 66 Assistance Coordination Unit, ACU (2018). Schools in the Northern Syrian Camps: Thematic Report Edition 02. 67 The nine cities selected for direct remote data collection on infrastructure damages were within the governorates of Aleppo, Idlib, and Latakia. They were used to extrapolate damages and losses in about 60 districts, subdistricts, and towns of the 6 most affected governorates affected by the earthquake (Aleppo, Idlib, Latakia, Raqqah, Hama and Tartous). 68 The value of infrastructure damages is based on pre-earthquake costs and do not yet include increased prices in transport, security, warehousing, and other additional post-earthquake expenditures. Impact on Social Sectors 55 exercise, only 20 percent of pre-earthquake facilities (157) related operational costs of education institutions, mainly are considered functional. Even for schools with seemingly safety, psychosocial support (PSS), catch up programs to limited external infrastructure damage, approximately 10 mitigate learning loss, provision of classroom materials percent (78) are deemed not functional, and the status of and student supplies, and training of teachers. Table 19 the remaining 70 percent (568) is not available. presents the detailed infrastructure damages and economic losses extrapolated for the six governorates most affected Economic losses were calculated based on unexpected by the earthquake. Annex 1.3 and Table 17 compare the education expenditures and increased operational costs infrastructure damage calculations, respectively, in the directly linked to the earthquake.69 These include temporary assessed nine cities and in the extrapolated assessment of education spaces and payment of temporary staff the six governorates. (teachers and paraprofessionals), as well as emergency TABLE 16: EDUCATION SECTOR DAMAGE AND LOSS INVENTORY TABLE (IN US$ MILLION) Asset Type Baseline Partially Completely Total Cost Damaged Destroyed Pre/Kindergarten 1,141 27 4 3.1 Primary 4,496 177 11 16.9 DAMAGE Secondary 936 36 5 6.4 College/ University 59 3 2 4.2 Total Damage 30.7 Temporary Learning Spaces 13.1 Student Safety 3.5 Additional Teachers 3.5 Psychosocial Support 29.3 LOSS Academic Catch-Up 24 Teacher Training (education in emergencies) 7.9 Educational Materials 4.1 Total Loss 85.4 Total Effect (Damage and Loss) 116.1 69 Losses from higher operational costs and unexpected expenditures due to the earthquake are calculated for a three-year period (until recovery). Impact on Social Sectors 56 TABLE 17: EDUCATION SECTOR TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSS BY GOVERNORATE Sectoral Recovery Strategy (IN US$ MILLION) and Needs Assessment Governorate Total Damage Total Loss (including cost estimates) Aleppo 17 31.1 The education recovery strategy should be centered around building more resilient education infrastructure Idlib 11 22.5 and services. This includes education infrastructure with seismic resistant, green, and child-centered school designs. Raqqah 0 7.1 Also, the restoration of education services must provide safe access and support the physical, psychological, and Hama 1.6 9.2 social wellbeing of students and teachers. In the aftermath Tartous 0 7.1 of the earthquake, children and youth are vulnerable to trauma, abuse, hunger, and illness. Schools ideally provide Latakia 1.1 8.4 an immediate sense of normalcy, and support the physical, social, and emotional well-being of learners and teachers. Total 30.7 85.4 Schools may also provide child and youth services by other sectors – including water, sanitation, hygiene, nutrition, vaccination, and mental and physical health screening and referrals. Catch up and back up programs limit the amount TABLE 18: EDUCATION SECTOR. TOTAL of learning loss, which in the long run affects the productivity DAMAGE AND LOSS BY AREAS OF CONTROL and growth of a country.70 (IN US$ MILLION) The recovery investments can be divided into Early Recovery Areas of Control Total Total Damage Loss (0‑12  months) and Short-term Recovery (1-3 years). In the early phase, the main objective is to reopen schools and Autonomous Administration of 0.2 0.5 learning spaces safely and operate education institutions North and East Syria with a minimum set of educational and complementary services. The short-term recovery sets the foundations Opposition-Controlled Areas 11.5 31.9 to return to education development indicators which prevailed prior to the conflict, including rebuilding of 31 Government-controlled areas 19 53 kindergartens, 188 primary schools, 41 secondary schools, Total 30.7 85.4 and 5 universities, as well as the damaged and destroyed universities. Table 19 presents the early investments of US$ 47.1 million (36 percent of total needs) for one year, and the short-term investments of US$ 91.5 million (66 percent of TABLE 19: PRIORITIZED AND SEQUENCED total needs) for up to three years of the recovery strategy. EDUCATION SECTOR NEEDS (IN US$ MILLION) The recovery strategy can be applied at both city and Type Early Short term Total governorate levels, subsequent to verifying both preliminary Recovery (1-3 years) Needs infrastructure damages and economic losses due to (0‑12 (Over 0-3 unexpected expenditure and higher operating costs of months) years) education institutions. Annex 2.3 and Table 20, below, Infrastructure 18 35.1 53.1 show an initial estimation of needs for both the nine Reconstruction cities assessed and the six governorates affected by the earthquake. Investments are allocated over the next three Service Delivery 29,1 56,3 85.4 years, for both infrastructure reconstruction and education Restoration service delivery restoration. Grand Total 47.1 91.4 138.5 70 See, for example: The Economic Impacts of Learning Losses Impact on Social Sectors 57 TABLE 20: TOTAL EDUCATION SECTOR COST OF NEEDS BY GOVERNORATE (US$ IN Implementation Arrangements MILLION) This is an initial projection of infrastructure damages, economic losses, and recovery needs in education. Governorate Needs Category Cost Implementation arrangements will also require politically sensitive consultations, designs, and strategies given the Aleppo  Infrastructure Reconstruction 29.5 complex governance structure of Syria today, especially in  Service Delivery Restoration 31 the Northwest regions. Local participation and ownership are key to the recovery strategy. To better understand the Idlib  Infrastructure Reconstruction 18.9 impact of the earthquake in each area of geographic control, Table 21 allocates the cost of recovery needs across the  Service Delivery Restoration 22.5 three main authorities in the region. Raqqah  Infrastructure Reconstruction 0  Service Delivery Restoration 7 Hama  Infrastructure Reconstruction 2.9 Recommendations and  Service Delivery Restoration 9.2 Limitations Tartous  Infrastructure Reconstruction 0 There are several data limitations in the present assessment, including:  Service Delivery Restoration 7.1 a. Data deficits limited analysis of colleges and university recovery needs, and calculation of school age Latakia  Infrastructure Reconstruction 1.8 beneficiaries (in and out-of-school and in non-camp  Service Delivery Restoration 8.4 and IDP camp settings). b. Lack of clear data on the unit cost of some Total 138.5 interventions – especially for education in emergency * Infrastructure reconstruction at the governorate level includes building services in schools (PSS, Safety Programs, education back better coefficients materials, etc.) c. Absence of information on the damage sustained in IDP camps and hard-to-reach areas. TABLE 21: TOTAL EDUCATION SECTOR COST d. Certain water infrastructure, including underground OF OVERALL NEEDS BY AREA OF CONTROL water infrastructure and water canals could not be (IN US$ IN MILLION) assessed due to methodological and data constraints. Areas of Control Needs Category Cost Nonetheless, several findings are clear from the present analysis: Autonomous  Infrastructure 0.2 Administration of Reconstruction a. Education infrastructure damages and economic North and East Syria losses are high and should be verified in the field  Service Delivery 14.7 b. Securing safe and quality temporary teachers and Restoration learning spaces in the short-term is critical, while Opposition-Controlled  Infrastructure 19.8 the reconstruction of the education infrastructure is Areas Reconstruction underway. c. To restore service delivery, at a minimum, schools will  Service Delivery 30.1 require safe teaching and learning spaces, access Restoration to basic needs (school meals, water, sanitation), Government-  Infrastructure 32.9 and psychosocial support, in addition to educational controlled areas Reconstruction materials and teacher training and support. d. Recovery plans for the Education Sector should include  Service Delivery 40.8 Restoration a clear building back better vision from the start (to prevent further out of school pressures, learning loss, Total 138.5 and trauma). Impact on Social Sectors 58 Municipal Services development. To achieve this, key underlying challenges Background and Analysis of should be unlocked, including giving municipalities more Pre‑Crisis Conditions and Trends responsibilities in the spirit of law 107 of 2011; enhancing their ability to facilitate horizontal coordination with other Local administration in Syria prior to the conflict was state and non-state actors; and equipping them with the managed by a centralized and hierarchical administrative financial and human resources to fulfill their service delivery set up. The role of the municipalities was restricted to mandates. the provision of limited services. In September 2011, there was an effort at national level, with law 107, to introduce decentralization and strengthen the role of local Assessment of Disaster Effects: governments, although it is not clear to what extent the law has been implemented, especially on fiscal decentralization. Damage and Loss Estimates The conflict had a significant impact on the municipal sector, as the number of administrative units doubled and This damage assessment of Municipal Services covers the new cities, towns and townships were established. The following asset classes: community facilities, community vacuum created in many cities from the withdrawal of markets, fire stations, libraries, parks/playgrounds, police formal public institutions during the 2012–2013 period stations, public parking lots, stadiums, town/city halls, zoos, has resulted in the creation of many Local Administration and tertiary and residential roads. Other public services such Councils that are outside of Government-controlled areas. as secondary roads, public transport, WASH, sewerage, Moreover, inadequate financial resources to manage the effluent water treatment, public schools and health centers ever-increasing demand for local services, coupled with the are included in the respective sector assessments. There are exponential growth in migration of rural populations to cities, no records on the inventory of these basic services at city have significantly challenged municipal service delivery in and regional level in Syria, and particularly in the earthquake- the earthquake-affected regions. affected regions. Earthquake damage to municipal assets has compounded Damage levels vary between the different types of municipal challenges to the already strained municipalities. Maintaining assets with community markets being the most affected the provision of basic municipal services in cities is critical asset category. Table 22 below provides an overview of to sustain livelihoods, transport people and goods, remove damages inr the nine cities included in the assessment. productivity constraints, and stimulate local economic Impact on Social Sectors 59 TABLE 22: DAMAGE INVENTORY TABLE (IN US$ MILLION) Asset Types Baseline Partially Completely No Observable Total damage Damaged Destroyed Damage Community Facility 7 1 0 6 0.2 Community Market 5 2 2 1 2.8 Fire Station 8 0 0 8 0.4 Library 0 0 0 0 0.4 Park/Playground 79 4 0 75 2.5 Police Station 12 1 0 11 0.4 Public Parking 1 0 0 1 0 Stadium 0 0 0 0 8.8 Town/City Hall 11 1 0 10 0.4 Zoo 0 0 0 0 0 Tertiary Road 265.91 4.73 0 261 8.7 Residential Road 11.00 1.00 0.00 10.00 0.1 Total Damage 15.6 Figure 22: Damage status of municipal assets in Aleppo City. Source: World Bank Impact on Social Sectors 60 The total damage to municipal assets varies significantly TABLE 23: TOTAL DAMAGE BY GOVERNORATE between cities with approximately one third of the damage (US$ IN MILLION) recorded in Aleppo city. Latakia, Jableh and Harem also showed significant damage to their municipal assets. The Governorate Total Damage breakdown of damage at the city level is presented in Annex 1.4. The impact of the earthquake has also been uneven for Aleppo 28.5 municipal assets in different neighborhoods of the cities. Latakia 17.9 Figure 23 presents the damage status of different assets in Aleppo city. Idlib 6.3 It should be noted that losses have not been estimated, Raqqa 5.2 since losses in municipal services have been considered Hama 9.3 as virtually zero compared to the situation immediately before the earthquake, due to their low capacity prior in Tartous 6.6 consequence of the protracted conflict. Total 73.8 Extrapolation of the damage for the six governorates covered by the assessment indicates a total of US$69.3 million worth of damage. Most affected governorates are TABLE 24: TOTAL DAMAGE BY AREAS OF Aleppo, Latakia and Hama as presented in Table 23. For the CONTROL (US$ IN MILLION) three governorates where the nine cities presented above are located (governorates of Aleppo, Latakia, and Idlib), Areas of Control Total Damage the data were extrapolated linearly based on population with a discount rate of 25 percent to reasonably account Government-controlled areas 42.4 for lower levels of municipal services outside of the main Autonomous Administration of 19.9 cities. For the other three governorates where there were no North and East Syria cities analyzed in detail (governorates of Raqqa, Hama, and Tartous), data have been extrapolated linearly. Opposition-Controlled Areas 11.4 Total 73.8 Prioritized Recovery and Reconstruction Needs reconstructing tertiary roads, vocational areas, community markets, and other communal places that are critical to The Early Recovery (0‑12  months) measures should the functionality of the cities. This could be followed with consider supporting municipalities to maintain their current the rehabilitation of damaged public housing, community levels of service delivery citywide and increase delivery centers and other assets managed by the municipalities. in the communities most affected by the earthquake. In Moreover, municipalities should gradually prepare these areas, the key priority would be to remove rubble and neighborhoods’ upgrading plans, urban mobility plans, conduct engineering studies and multi-hazard assessments comprehensive waste management plans and area-based at the city level to determine structural integrity of buildings, regeneration plans. and risks and specific needs for reconstruction. Equally important is to deliver urgent municipal services and Early recovery needs at the city level are estimated at infrastructure and address the disproportionate impact of US$14.7 million and US$38.4 million at the governorate the earthquake on different segments of society, especially level. Short-term reconstruction needs in the selected cities women, children, and other vulnerable groups. are estimated at US$ 21.4 million, and US$57.5 million at the governorate level. Overall, the recovery and reconstruction For the short-term recovery (1-3 years), municipalities needs at the city level are estimated at US$ 35.7 million. should adopt a holistic, area-based approach at the city At the governorate level, they are estimated at US$ 95.9 and neighborhood level. This will include rehabilitating and million, of which US$55.1 million is required for Government- Impact on Social Sectors 61 controlled areas, and the remainder is for the Autonomous For effective action, a roadmap should be developed and Administration of North and East Syria, US$55.1 million, and tailored technical assistance and capacity building should the Opposition-controlled areas, US$14.9 million. Annex 2.4 be delivered to enhance the institutional and financial presents the total needs by city, Table 25 presents the total capacity of the municipalities. This technical assistance needs by governorate and Table 26 presents total needs should strengthen municipal capacity for spatial planning disaggregated by the different control areas. and integrated service delivery, support interdepartmental and intermunicipal coordination mechanisms, and build capacity of municipalities to improve revenue and asset management. TABLE 25: TOTAL NEEDS BY GOVERNORATE (IN US$ MILLION) Governorate Needs category Cost Aleppo Infrastructure Reconstruction 33.3 Service Delivery Restoration 3.7 Latakia Infrastructure Reconstruction 21 Service Delivery Restoration 2.3 Idlib Infrastructure Reconstruction 7.3 Service Delivery Restoration 0.8 Raqqah Infrastructure Reconstruction 6 Service Delivery Restoration 0.6 Hama Infrastructure Reconstruction 10.9 Service Delivery Restoration 1.2 Tartous Infrastructure Reconstruction 7.7 Service Delivery Restoration 0.8 Total 95.9 TABLE 26: TOTAL NEEDS BY CONTROL AREAS (IN US$ MILLION) Areas of Control Needs category Cost Government-controlled areas Infrastructure Reconstruction 49.6 Service Delivery Restoration 5.5 Autonomous Administration of North and Infrastructure Reconstruction 23.3 East Syria Service Delivery Restoration 2.6 Opposition-Controlled Areas Infrastructure Reconstruction 13.4 Service Delivery Restoration 1.5 Total 95.9 Impact on Social Sectors 62 Recommendations and Limitations Recommendations for next steps include the following: • Detailed studies to fine-tune damage assessments and collect missing data. • Develop a roadmap for early and short-midterm recovery, with technical assistance to help municipalities deliver services in the spirit of law 107 of 2011. • Plan, develop feasibility studies and detailed budget to restore municipal services damaged by the earthquake. There are several data limitations in the present assessment, including: • The assessment is limited to municipal assets that could be identified remotely with satellite imagery. Services not easily identifiable and those embedded in the urban fabric of Syrian cities may have been missed, and thus the damage cost and needs figures may be higher. • Due to limited data availability, unit costs have been standardized and used in all locations covered by the assessment. However, different areas may have different unit costs, which can be further fine-tuned in the next phases. • Extrapolation to governorates may have missed assets, since it was based on population and incorporated a discount to account for fewer municipal services in rural areas. Source: Ipsos Impact on Social Sectors 63 Cultural Heritage Syria hosts some of the most important cultural heritage 13th century by Saladin that, prior to the conflict, had been sites in the Middle East. It is a country in which tangible and magisterially conserved by the Aga Khan Trust for Culture. intangible heritage have intertwined over many millennia. In their assessments, Syrian experts reported the collapse It also has a rich national and local heritage, which reflects of parts of the Ottoman mill, present inside the Citadel, and the diversity of its people and contributes to the country’s some sections of the defensive walls, which apparently first sense of identity, but this heritage has been devastated by cracked and then collapsed. Furthermore, part of the dome years of conflict. This assessment targeted archaeological of the minaret of the Ayubid mosque has collapsed and the sites, museums, heritage housing, other heritage buildings, entrances to the fort and the Mamluk tower are damaged. and religious buildings. Syria hosts six World Heritage Sites, One of the western towers also fell to the ground, and the which are all now on the List of World Heritage in Danger, souks suffered extensive collapse. Also in Aleppo, cracks and 11 sites on the World Heritage Tentative List.  appeared on the façade of the National Museum, and there are reports of damage to various museum exhibits inside it, The earthquake extends the damages incurred by the including in the vaults. conflict. Economically, cultural heritage in Syria has been the basis of a healthy tourism industry. Before the earthquake Extensive damages are reported in several archeological and the conflict, the Tourism Sector in Syria employed 20 areas, for instance at the temple of the storm god Hadad, one percent of the workforce and cultural tourism was its driving of the most celebrated sacred sites in the ancient Near East. force. With the earthquake and the conflict, this percentage The temple had been recently discovered in the late 1990s has dropped nearly to zero, with dramatic consequences for and early 2000s under about 15 meters of ancient deposits the economy, and the many women and youth who were and subsequent occupations. This is a very important site preferentially employed in this sector. of Syria’s heritage. The earthquake also impacted major urban sites that in the past were anchors of tourism. An example is the ancient Assessment of Disaster Effects: port city of Balanea, where the ancient castle of Margat, also Damage and Loss Estimates known as Marqab from the Arabic Qalaat al Marqab, has partially collapsed. Built in 1062, the castle was one of the The earthquake has resulted in damages sustained to best-preserved Syrian Crusader fortresses. Another example countless heritage structures, archaeological areas and is the district of Tartus, where the collapse of a rocky cliff in religious sites, many still active places of worship, across the vicinity of Kadmos Castle, or Al Qadmus was reported, a vast area of Syria. The support of a wide network of which also damaged several historic houses in the area. The international experts was mobilized. With social media and earthquake did not spare more recent heritage; the Church new technologies, photos and preliminary surveys have been of the Annunciation of Iskenderun, dating to the 19th century, shared among experts to support efforts on the ground. was one of the first buildings to be damaged. Among the most affected cities is Aleppo, which is one The earthquake caused damage to cultural heritage which, of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world. based on available data, can be estimated at US$ 157,8 Aleppo was already an important human settlement in million for the cities included in the assessment (Aleppo, the middle of the third millennium BC. The ancient Aleppo Afrin, Azaz, Jandairis, Latakia, Harem, Jableh, Ad-Dana, and Citadel suffered great damage, together with the historic Sarmada) and at US$444 million at the governorate level city center. It is a World Heritage Site built in the 12th and (Aleppo, Latakia, Idlib, Raqqa, Hama, Tartous). Impact on Social Sectors 64 Table 1 below provides an overview of damage for the nine other heritage buildings, they have been derived statistically cities included in the assessment. Data were based on from the housing stock and the extent of damage to this remote sensing; with the limitations such a methodology stock, assuming that the earthquake impacted 10 percent brings with it. Archaeological sites, museums, and religious of the historic housing stock and 5 percent of other heritage buildings included are those that show visible damage buildings in all cities, with an increase to 30 percent and (partial or total) from comparison of high-resolution satellite 15 percent respectively for Aleppo, given the uniqueness imagery before and after the earthquake, in the nine cities of its historic urban fabric. Such a low percentage, despite covered by the assessment. The baseline is the situation Syria’s rich heritage, has been assumed to be a conservative the day before the earthquake, and all damage caused by estimate. the conflict is part of the baseline. For heritage housing and Annexes 5.1a and 5.1b provide the breakdown of damage at the city level. The total is the same as the previous Table, but in this case, figures are broken down city by city. Most of the sustained damage is in Aleppo, at an estimated damage of US$100 million, due to its remarkable heritage assets and the high intensity of the earthquake. Heritage assets in Jandairis and Latakia were impacted too, although to a lesser extent than Aleppo. In the remaining four cities analyzed in this assessment, damage to heritage has been more limited, as evidenced by the data. Losses have not been estimated, because losses in heritage are negligible compared to the situation immediately before the earthquake. This is because tourism has already collapsed because of the conflict. Table 27 provides an extrapolation of damage for the six governorates covered by the assessment. For the three governorates that included the nine cities presented above (governorates of Aleppo, Latakia, and Idlib), the data were extrapolated linearly based on population, with a discount rate of 50 percent to reasonably account for fewer heritage assets outside main cities. For the other three Governorates in which there were no cities analyzed in detail (governorates of Raqqa, Hama, and Tartous), data have been extrapolated linearly. Table 28 below presents the damage by control area. TABLE 27: TOTAL CULTURAL HERITAGE TABLE 28: TOTAL CULTURAL HERITAGE DAMAGE BY GOVERNORATE DAMAGE BY CONTROL AREAS (IN US$ MILLION) Governorate Total Damage (in US$ million) Control Area Total Damage (US$) Aleppo 283.4 Government-controlled areas 255.3 Latakia 20.9 Autonomous Administration of North 119.9 Idlib 19.1 and East Syria Raqqa 29.5 Opposition-Controlled Areas 68.8 Hama 53.4 Total 444.0 Tartous 37.7 Total 444.0 Impact on Social Sectors 65 service delivery i.e., so that restored assets perform at the Sectoral Recovery and same level as before the earthquake and are improved to Reconstruction Needs enhance their resilience. This has been estimated as 10 percent of the total. Cultural Heritage recovery needs were calculated following a tested approach in post-disaster and post-conflict scenarios. Needs have been further broken down by timing, with two A premium of 15 percent for BBB has been applied to allow periods, one for early recovery, which include the cost of not only for reconstruction of assets to their conditions immediate interventions in the next 12 months. For the before the earthquake, but also to enhance their resilience to heritage sector, interventions in this immediate phase include future shocks. This would build on global best practices that stabilizing damaged assets, surveying debris, protection of have allowed countries to successfully prepare themselves salvaged assets (movable and immovable), training border for disaster scenarios and therefore contain damage police to combat trafficking, and emergency conservation. from future events. Needs included both infrastructure reconstruction costs, which cover the physical restoration The calculation of needs includes costing for the short term, of heritage assets damaged or destroyed, estimated as 90 covering a time span of 1 to 3 years, for the restoration of percent of the total. Needs also include the costs to restore assets. TABLE 29: TOTAL CULTURAL HERITAGE NEEDS BY GOVERNORATE (IN US$ MILLION) Governorate Needs category Cost Aleppo Infrastructure Reconstruction 331.5 Service Delivery Restoration 36.8 Latakia Infrastructure Reconstruction 24.5 Service Delivery Restoration 2.7 Idlib Infrastructure Reconstruction 22.4 Service Delivery Restoration 2.5 Raqqah Infrastructure Reconstruction 34.6 Service Delivery Restoration 3.8 Hama Infrastructure Reconstruction 62.5 Service Delivery Restoration 7 Tartous Infrastructure Reconstruction 44.1 Service Delivery Restoration 4.9 Total 577.2 Impact on Social Sectors 66 TABLE 30: TOTAL CULTURAL HERITAGE NEEDS BY CONTROL AREAS (IN US$ MILLION) Areas of Control Needs category Cost Government-controlled areas Infrastructure Reconstruction 298.7 Service Delivery Restoration 33.2 Autonomous Administration of North Infrastructure Reconstruction 140.3 and East Syria Service Delivery Restoration 15.6 Opposition-Controlled Areas Infrastructure Reconstruction 80.5 Service Delivery Restoration 8.9 Total 577.2 where settlements are denser, and in cities; it is also Recommendations and true that there are major heritage sites in areas of Limitations lower human presence. In order to use the chosen methodology, it was necessary to accommodate this There are several data limitations in the present assessment, assumption. including: • The assessment is limited to tangible cultural Nonetheless, several findings are clear from the present heritage assets that could be identified remotely with analysis: satellite imagery. Smaller sites and those embedded • Before the earthquake and the conflict, the tourism in the historic urban fabric of Syrian cities may have sector in Syria employed 20 percent of the workforce been missed and consequently the figures may be and cultural tourism was its driving force. Damage higher. Equally, intangible heritage assets have not to the assets on which this sector was based should been assessed. be looked at with priority, given the relevance of these • Unit costs for the assessment have been assets for the economy. It is hoped that investments standardized, because this was an essential step to restore these assets may anchor economic in order to calculate total damage and needs. For recovery. a sector like cultural heritage this is an obvious • Heritage assets have been heavily affected and are at limitation, as assets have very different values and risk of irreparable damage and/or disappearance due restoration costs. to demolition and neglect, in a situation that is further • Extrapolations to governorates may have missed aggravated by the risk of trafficking. This calls for the certain assets as they are based on population and mobilization of the international community to target incorporate a discount to account for less heritage in the heritage sector and consider addressing its needs non-urban locations. This is obviously a simplification: in the next phases of interventions. it is true that heritage assets are concentrated Impact on Social Sectors 67 Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 68 Transport INVENTORY OF INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS Background and Analysis of (GENERAL AGGREGATE FIGURES)   Pre‑Crisis Conditions and Trends The extent of road network covered under the Transport Syria’s Transport Sector has experienced a decade of decline chapter includes primary and secondary roads in the in activity resulting in particularly depressed levels of activity governorates of Aleppo, Idlib, Raqqah, Hama, Tartous and in the railway, aviation and maritime sectors following the Latakia, with a total length of 3,038 km of primary roads peak levels of 2011. With regards to road transport, although and 2,946 km of secondary roads. The length of railway the country-wide main network length increased by ten infrastructure across the nine assessed cities is 813 km percent from 2011 to 2021, damage has been incurred to out of a total network length of 1,972 km. Both Latakia and more than half of the roads in some urban areas, and in rural Tartous ports are situated within the geographic scope of areas access roads have in parts been severed or impeded the RDNA.   Aleppo airport is the sole commercial airport and bridges have been destroyed. The connectivity and to be covered by this assessment as it lies within the operation of border crossings to the north between Syria and earthquake zone, but Damascus International Airport may Türkiye have been dramatically reduced and those crossings be commercially indirectly affected due to the potential that remain operational are heavily controlled with many impact on domestic flights between these two airports.     restrictions in place. During this same period, the country’s railway network was partially destroyed which significantly SECTOR DEVELOPMENTAL CHALLENGES   reduced the availability of services; while operations have resumed recently, this has only happened in relatively more The management of the transport sector is fragmented peaceful areas. Accordingly, a much smaller catchment is across the region given the presence of different control currently being served with overall ridership levels in 2021 areas. The ongoing crisis in the transport sector continues down 75 percent compared with 2011.   to hinder investments, particularly in the railway sector which crosses areas controlled by different parties. In the The aviation sector has been similarly hard hit with the annual maritime sector, Tartous port is used as a naval facility, and number of passengers down 74 percent over the same ten- thus port operations are subordinated to security needs. year period. International carriers largely stopped serving In the civil aviation sector, the poor security situation has Syria, leaving the national carrier, Syrian Air to monopolize reduced revenues for the airport of Aleppo, and there are less the remaining market demand when airports and skies revenues and developments in this sector. The environment are not shut for military purposes. The maritime sector in Northwest Syria is not conducive to growth, and as a also experienced a reduction in activity from 2011 to 2021 result mobility levels are expected to remain subdued, which with the total number of containers in Latakia and Tartous also results in less revenues to the government through ports dropping by 77 percent and 90 percent respectively. taxes on fuel and cars. General accessibility to critical sites However, during the same period, the overall quantity of for redevelopment, together with the availability of materials, merchandise shipped dropped by only 31 percent which plant and equipment, and technical capability to implement suggests that the level of activity in non-containerized goods reconstruction and rehabilitation works are also significant was comparatively less affected by the recent deterioration challenges given the competing high demand for such in the economy.       resources.   Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 69 Figure 23: Estimated Road Damage in the Study Area  Source: World Bank Among the six governorates assessed, Tartous, Aleppo Assessment of Disaster Effects: and Idlib have suffered the most as 19 percent (71 km), 18 Damage and Loss Estimates percent (306 km), and 16 percent (106 km) respectively of their primary and secondary roads have been damaged. The a. Aggregate quantitative and qualitative effects on total damage to bridges across the six governorates extends Infrastructure and Physical Assets (Damage)   over 11 km, with 1 km of destroyed bridges and 10 km of The assessment covers six governorates impacted by the partially damaged sections. The Figure below shows the earthquake, with a focus on nine cities. The surveys revealed roads that have been damaged as a result of the earthquake. destruction and partial damage to bridge sections, as well as In addition to the road assets, the earthquake has resulted in partial damage to primary roads and secondary roads, and partial damage to the airport in Aleppo.  The relatively high blockages due to falling debris from destroyed buildings. The damages to the transport sector are also attributable to the total damage to the primary and secondary roads across pre-earthquake challenges such as lack of maintenance the six governorates extends over 675 km, representing of roads and bridges or lack of repair of conflict-damaged about 11 percent of the assessed road network. The length roads. In Aleppo alone, around 25% of the bridges were of damage is equally split among primary and secondary uncrossable and 1.4 percent of roads needed maintenance. roads, with around 340 km of damage in each category. Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 70 Figure 24: Impact on Accessibility in the city of Azaz  Source: World Bank b. Aggregate quantitative and qualitative effects Across the nine studied cities, nine percent of health on production and delivery of goods and services, access facilities and six percent of educational facilities are not to services and goods (Loss)    accessible anymore. Access to governance, municipal The obstructions and damages to the road infrastructure services and cultural heritage facilities has also been have caused traffic movement disruptions, lengthy detours, affected, as has 16 percent of Public Institutions’ facilities increased travel times and costs, and increased road safety (public administration buildings), 14 percent of municipal hazards, further hindering the movement of people and services facilities (community markets, fire stations, police goods, access to employment and essential services, and stations, libraries, parks, playgrounds, etc.) and eight percent the operation of ambulances and civil defense vehicles. of cultural heritage sites (religious sites, museums, etc.) are The closure of roads due to damages and falling debris has not accessible anymore. The Figure below shows the impact forced road users to use alternative longer routes, resulting of the earthquake on accessibility in Azaz.  in increased travel times and transport costs, for passenger as well as freight traffic, including building material and The total losses to the transport sector in the nine cities humanitarian relief. Destruction of road safety infrastructure are estimated at approximately US$ 4.3 million. They and power outages may also have led to traffic safety represent the sum of revenue losses from lower fuel hazards.   taxes (due to inaccessible areas in the aftermath of the earthquake, damaged vehicles, unavailability of fuel and Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 71 lower fuel demand due to unaffordable prices), and higher d. Can existing vulnerabilities be exacerbated and overall vehicle operating costs and travel times due to lower traffic risk increase?  speeds and long detours caused by road damages and the Transport infrastructure is vital for people’s access to accumulation of debris obstructing traffic flow. Depending essential services and employment. Before the earthquake, on the timing, availability of funds and strategy for recovery Syria was already suffering from devastated infrastructure, and construction, the estimated losses could be higher than and the earthquake further exacerbated the level of estimated. damage and the risk and vulnerability of existing transport infrastructure. The earthquake and its aftershocks may c. How damages and loss in the sector will affect projected have indeed affected the structural stability of existing GDP growth? roads, including bridges, and the stability of sloping terrains. The damages and losses in the transport sector will have Vulnerable groups, including women, IDPs, the elderly, etc., spillover effects on Syria’s economy and will impact are likely to suffer more from hindered access to services projected GDP growth. The lack of accessibility and reduced and employment, which in turn further exacerbates their mobility will result in reduced productivity across sectors vulnerability. Disasters also tend to particularly impact the due to longer travel times to reach jobs. In addition, the poor who have less resources to cope and adapt, and less increase in travel time and cost may result in people leaving access to social services.   their jobs to search for closer ones, and this affects women more than men. An additional consequence is the increase The total damage to assets and infrastructure in the in the costs of goods and products due to the increased cost transport sector in the six governorates amounts to US$ 718 of transport. Also, poor quality of roads leads to increased million as detailed in the Table below. The total damage and road safety hazards and accidents and fatalities which are loss in the nine cities amount to US$ 56 million (excluding considered added costs to the economy.  damage to bridges) and US$ 4.3 million, respectively.  TABLE 31: DAMAGE AND LOSS INVENTORY TABLE (IN US$ MILLION)  Asset Types  Baseline  Partially Completely Total Cost  Damaged  Destroyed  Primary roads, km  3,038.4  311.1  N/A  119.9  Secondary roads, km  2,945.9  322.2  N/A  58.9  Bridges (motorway, trunk, primary, secondary), km  47.0  10.1  1.1  489.1  DAMAGE Ports  1  0  N/A  0  Airports  1  1  N/A  50  Railway station  2  0  N/A  0  Total Damage  717.9  Losses due to lack of mobility  0.2  Losses due to increase in marginal vehicle cost  3.2  LOSS Losses due to increase in travel time  0.9  Total Loss  4.3  Total Effect (Damage and Loss)  722.2  Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 72 TABLE 32: TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSSES TABLE 33: TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSSES BY GOVERNORATE (IN US$ MILLION)  BY AREAS OF CONTROL (IN US$ MILLION)  Governorate    Total Damage  Areas of Control Total Damage  Aleppo   184.2 Government-controlled areas  199.6 Idlib   174.6 Autonomous Administration of  208.6   North and East Syria Raqqah   133.8 Opposition-Controlled Areas   309.6 Hama   34.1 Total    717.8 Tartous   47.2 Latakia   143.9 Total   717.8 Bridges are a priority across the six governorates Sectoral Recovery Strategy with US$636 million needed for their restoration and and Needs Assessment reconstruction, including US$190 million and US$183 million in the governorates of Idlib and Latakia, respectively.  a.Which assets and infrastructure need to be reconstructed? The recovery and reconstruction of the sector requires d. How can services be restored? Which types of services significant financing and coordination among local and should be prioritized?  international donors. The recovery and reconstruction Rubble clearance and the maintenance and rehabilitation of needs for the six governorates amount to US$933 million damaged roads is key and should be prioritized to restore and include the rehabilitation of primary roads, secondary service delivery in the sector, particularly, in areas significantly roads and bridges, as well as the rehabilitation of the impacted by the earthquake where the population is damaged airport in Aleppo. These needs take into account struggling to access basic services (like health, social the staffing, equipment and materials needed to bring services, education, market centers, etc.) and employment assets and services back to pre-crisis levels. They also opportunities to sustain their livelihoods. Restoring services account for inflation, security and insurance premiums, involves reducing transport costs and may include: (i) and a BBB factor particularly for more disaster-resilient setting up temporary bridges to facilitate traffic over road infrastructure. Reconstruction requires higher standards of sections where bridges have been destroyed, until they are design and construction of roads, bridges, and associated rebuilt; (ii) possible temporary government subsidies for infrastructure (drainage, culverts, etc.) to accommodate public transport in areas with high post-disaster transport increased resilience against tremors, and potentially flood- costs, thus avoiding increases in tariffs; and (iii) possible control or landslide protection on strategic and relevant road temporary tax relief schemes for private and public transport sections.   companies over the recovery period.  b. What is the geographic distribution of needs? Which e. How can sectoral needs be sequenced over a period of areas and facilities should be prioritized?  one to three years?  Recovery and reconstruction needs are largely concentrated Recovery and reconstruction interventions need to be in the governorates of Aleppo, Idlib, Latakia, and Raqqah, prioritized and sequenced based on the economic and social in decreasing order, amounting to US$240 million, US$227 importance of the damaged facilities and assets. The early- million, US$187 million and US$174 million, respectively.   recovery interventions in the transport sector should focus on road clearance, rubble/obstruction removal, and the c. Which facilities have the greatest needs?  construction of temporary bridges where needed to restore Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 73 access to residential areas, markets, border crossings (to Strong ownership from national and local institutions is facilitate the entry of construction material and aid) and critical for effective recovery. Funding for emergency repairs, essential services like health and education. This will be recovery and reconstruction needs to be quickly mobilized followed by the rehabilitation of key roads carrying high in collaboration with local and international donors. traffic volumes or serving key locations such as hospitals, Moreover, labor-intensive rehabilitation and reconstruction schools, or border crossings. Short-term interventions interventions would create much-needed employment for include rehabilitation of remaining roads and bridges while local consultants, contractors, and skilled/semi-skilled improving the implementation capacities of the sector’s workers.   institutions.   The Table below shows the estimated costs for infrastructure f. What is necessary to address the ‘soft’ issues (for reconstruction in the early-recovery (0-12 months) and example, staffing and institutional capacity)?  short-term (one to three years) phases by city, governorate, and area of control.   TABLE 34: TOTAL COST OF NEEDS BY GOVERNORATE (IN US$ MILLION)  Governorate    Needs category      Cost  Aleppo   Infrastructure Reconstruction  239.5  Idlib   Infrastructure Reconstruction  226.9  Raqqah   Infrastructure Reconstruction  173.9  Hama   Infrastructure Reconstruction  44.4  Tartous   Infrastructure Reconstruction  61.3  Latakia   Infrastructure Reconstruction  187.2  Total   933.2  TABLE 35. TOTAL COST OF NEEDS BY AREA OF CONTROL (IN US$ MILLION)  Areas of Control   Needs category      Cost  Government-controlled areas Infrastructure Reconstruction  467.5  Autonomous Administration of North Infrastructure Reconstruction  194.5  and East Syria Rebel-Controlled Areas   Infrastructure Reconstruction  271.2  Total   933.22    Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 74 Recommendations and Limitations a. Main limitations of the assessment  The damage assessment for the Roads Sector focuses on primary roads, secondary roads and bridges, and excludes damage to border crossings, vehicles (light vehicles, buses, trucks, etc.), road traffic furniture (traffic lights, signage, etc.) or facility infrastructure (drainage or protection structures, etc.). Damage to motorways and trunks is only assessed on bridge sections, and damages to tertiary roads, tracks, residential roads and service roads are covered under the Municipal Services Chapter and have not been covered under the present chapter.  b. Link between sector and cross-cutting themes  Damages and obstructions to road assets and infrastructure have hindered access to essential services and markets, particularly for women, the youth, the elderly, people with limited mobility and other vulnerable groups.   c. Brief overview of potential interventions  In the immediate- and short-term, the priority is to restore services by repairing damaged roads and bridges, and a fast-track program to remove debris, clean road surfaces and re- establish a road network to link residential areas, services, businesses and key economic centres. This program would involve planning and implementation of rehabilitation works and should consider the safe disposal of waste. However, there is also a need to balance rehabilitation works with the opportunity this crisis offers to BBB through more resilient designs to earthquakes and natural disasters, greener construction materials and processes, as well as safer roads.  d. Recommendations for recovery plans   The recovery plan should build on the opportunity to BBB and work towards infrastructure resilience against earthquakes, climate change and natural disasters, not only for the immediate reconstruction needs but also for future infrastructure projects through multiyear planning and budgeting. In the immediate- and short-terms, recovery plans should focus on high priority interventions such as the opening, maintenance and rehabilitation of key roads carrying high traffic volumes or serving key locations such as hospitals, schools, or border crossings to restore service delivery and access to essential services. In the medium and long-term, local institutional and implementation capacities need to be restored. Given the widespread loss of jobs and livelihoods due to the earthquake, labor-intensive road maintenance and support for microenterprises should be priorities for job creation in the affected areas. Most importantly, the plan ought to be put together in an inclusive and participatory manner, in consultation with the people and businesses, particularly women, the youth, the elderly, IDPs, people with limited mobility and other vulnerable groups to ensure that no one is left behind and that the needs of the communities are addressed. Civil society organizations (CSOs), local and international NGOs, and the contracting and consulting sectors should also be consulted. The recovery plan should also consider available resources, donors’ funding, and the environmental and social impacts of interventions.  Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 75 Water supply and sanitation. Residents in the Northwest Water had previously faced water shortages as a result of mismanagement, government neglect, and military operations (damaging infrastructure). This forced residents to drill boreholes; around 1,000 boreholes were registered with the Strategic Steering Group Water Resources Department as of August 2022. Water needs were unmet in Background and Analysis of 97 percent of communities, with an average of 56 percent of Pre‑Crisis Conditions and Trends the population identifying it as a priority need. According to the United Nations, more than 50 percent of the population This is a region in which water security is a constant struggle, of Northwest Syria lacks access to piped water and relies where much of the population relies on poorly irrigated on alternative sources such as trucked water.72 In many agriculture and where the water supply and sanitation cases, the water trucks only service central locations and situation prior to the earthquake was dire. The United residents who live further away need to transport the water Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs they buy by the barrel themselves. Trucked water is not only (OCHA) estimates that 90 percent of the 4.6 million people expensive but is also unregulated and can be unsafe to drink in Northwestern Syria are reliant on humanitarian aid71; and if untreated. Thus, according to the United Nations Children’s the country’s water supply has been reduced between 30 Fund (UNICEF),73 42 percent of the people rely on alternative and 40 percent due to the protracted conflict. Water and or unsafe water; and 70 percent of wastewater is untreated. sanitation services have been further affected by the lack of electricity, which limits the distribution of water and the Dams. In addition to the concern related to the adequate operation of water treatment facilities. As a result, exposure provision of safe drinking water due to the lack of operations to water borne diseases is high, with cholera infecting over and maintenance of dams following years of conflict, 85,000 people who did not have access to essential care concerns have been raised about the earthquake’s potential or services in 2022. These conditions are increasing the impact on the safety of dams. The earthquake-affected exposure of highly vulnerable, conflict affected communities areas in the Northwestern region of Syria are located across Northwestern Syria. primarily in the upper reaches of the Euphrates and the Figure 25: River basins and Earthquake Impact areas 71 ECHO. 2022. New life in the village: easing water scarcity in Northwest Syria 72 New life in the village: easing water scarcity in Northwest Syria 73 UNICEF (2022) Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 76 Source: City of Blleramoon, PNEONEO, DOI: 08FEB2023. World Bank/Ipsos Orontes basins. These are home to an estimated 53 of Syria’s 166 dams (Table 36) which provide an array of services, including water for domestic and industrial supply, irrigation, hydropower generation, and flood control, among others. These regions are also located downstream of a number of dams situated on the Euphrates River and its tributaries in Türkiye. Many dams in the earthquake-affected areas of Syria already suffer from neglect and lack of regular maintenance due to the protracted conflict. This can increase vulnerability of the dam to natural hazards and decrease the safety factor of the dam, progressively leading to or heightening the risk of a catastrophic failure, while the lack of emergency preparedness downstream of the dams can also increase the exposure of the local population and assets to potential inundation. These challenges are further accentuated by the current context, in which there is a complex array of shifting roles and responsibilities for the safety of dams across different areas of control. These challenges are illustrated by the Maydanki Dam which was captured by Turkish Armed Forces from the Kurdish People’s Protection Units on March 9, 2018, during the Turkish military intervention in Afrin with armed units affiliated with the Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army rebel faction.74 74 RUDAW (2018) Turkey takes Afrin dam, nears city: media reports. Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 77 TABLE 36: MAIN DAMS IN SYRIA Basin Number of Dams Storage Capacity (MCM) Orontes 49 1,492 Euphrates and Allepo 4 16,146 Yarmouk 42 245 Barada and Awaj - - Coastal 21 602 Al Badia 37 69 Tigris and Khabour 12 1,045 Total 165 19,599 (Source: FAO 2008 based on MLAE 2007) the  damage  to water sector assets, which are estimated Assessment of Disaster Effects: to be about US$ 145.4 million. This estimate covers only Damage and Loss Estimates detected wells, water towers/tanks, water treatment plants, sewage treatment plants, pumping stations, storage DAMAGES ESTIMATES reservoirs of 10,000 liters, along with water and sanitation facilities. The Table below presents only the assessed Earthquakes usually have a significant impact on value of replacement and rehabilitation costs by asset. The infrastructure that would need to be assessed on the ground information is indicative, and shall be completed through through surveys to determine the exact extent of damage. an additional, in-depth ground assessment to refine and This assessment relies on satellite images to estimate validate these estimates.  TABLE 37: DAMAGE INVENTORY (IN US$ MILLION) Summary Baseline assets Damaged Assets Destroyed Assets Cost (in US$ million) Well 195.0 9.5 0.9 0.2 Water Tower/Tank 96.0 6.0 6.0 83.2 Water Treatment Plant 2.0 1.0 - 26.4 Sewage Treatment Plant 2.0 1.0 - 18 Water supply network n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Sewage network n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Irrigation canals (in km) 1,500 n.a. 33.2 1.2 Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 78 Summary Baseline assets Damaged Assets Destroyed Assets Cost (in US$ million) Dam n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Pumping Station75 12.0 3.4 - 15.1 Water Storage Reservoir 1,169.2 95.6 12.9 0.3 Water/Sanitation Office 2.0 - - - Total 1,478.2 116,5 53 145.4 TABLE 38: TOTAL DAMAGES BY TABLE 39: TOTAL DAMAGES BY AREAS OF GOVERNORATE CONTROL Governorate Total Damages Areas of Control Total Damage (in US$ (US$ in million) million) Aleppo 78.9 Government-controlled areas 131.2 Idlib 12.4 Opposition-Controlled 13.6 Northwest Syria Raqqah 2.9 Autonomous Administration 0.6 Hama 15.3 of North and East Syria Tartous 0 Total 145.4 Latakia 54.0 Total 145.4 Water Supply and Sanitation. In the Northwestern areas, on damage to water supply and sanitation facilities. A preliminary estimates suggest that as a result of the substantial proportion of the population did not have access earthquake, up to 10,000 households76 are affected by to safe drinking water prior to the earthquake, and are now damaged or destroyed water supply and sanitation facilities. more vulnerable to health emergencies and likely to face Damage to water reservoirs, pumping stations, wells, water greater difficulties in case of future disasters. The rapid tower/tanks, water treatment plants, wastewater treatment assessment showed that the water supply in institutional plants, water supply networks, sewage networks, water buildings was not affected by the earthquake. A precise supply station reservoirs, and water/sanitation offices has assessment of the damage to the ground is required to not been reported. However, based on similar experiences better inform people of the status of the water supply and from other assessments, it is reasonable to assume that sanitation facilities. In addition, particularly in Greater Idlib on there would be damage to underground water supply and the Turkish border and throughout Northern Aleppo, many sewerage systems. Limited information was available households were deprived of water and sanitation. This 75 Estimated cost includes observed and extrapolated damages 76 OCHA. Northwest Syria – Situation report Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 79 information is corroborated by information from the media In the aftermath of the earthquake there were numerous and other humanitarian agencies working on the ground. 77 reports of structural damage and increased water levels in many sections of the Euphrates and Oronte rivers. Dams Assessment. The satellite imagery identified no The potential risks associated with the earthquake were additional damage to dams, beyond the fissures in the Afrin compounded by several days of snow and rain which Dam. From a technical point of view there are numerous increased the discharge volume in rivers in the affected impact pathways associated with the safety of dams and areas. A rapid remote sensing assessment identified 19 the services they provide. When dams are designed using dams in the earthquake affected area. Damages were modern seismic engineering principles and well-constructed, reported for two facilities, five reported no damage while they typically perform well and are able to withstand seismic data was not available for the remaining sites. A 3m high conditions. The principal consideration for the seismic levee on the Orontes River near the village of Al Tlul in the design of dams is ground shaking, which causes vibrations Idlib Governorate on the border with Türkiye reportedly in dams, appurtenant structures and equipment, and their failed, causing major flooding in the surrounding residential foundations. Fault movements in the dam foundations or and agricultural areas. The earthquake and its secondary discontinuities in dam foundations near major faults may impacts caused water levels to rise suddenly, and UNOCHA cause structural distortions. However, there are several other reported that 7,000 people evacuated and 1,000 houses impact pathways associated with the effects of earthquakes, flooded. The 73m high Maydanki Dam, also known as the including fault movement in the reservoir area causing Afrin Dam, located in the northern Aleppo Governorate was water waves in the reservoir or loss of freeboard; mass inaugurated in April 2004 with a capacity of 190 MCM and movements or rockfalls causing damage to gates, spillway shows extensive cracks, with early reports suggesting the piers, retaining walls, powerhouses, electromechanical dam was in danger of imminent failure. Located in one of the equipment, penstocks, transmission lines, access roads to regions most affected by the earthquake and the only area dams, etc. Damages can also be incurred due to operational of “very strong” macro-seismic intensity, the dam provides safety considerations. These can include the sudden drinking water to about 200,000 people, irrigation for about release of water to draw down the reservoir which results 30,000 hectares of olives, fruit trees and agricultural crops, in downstream inundation, an interruption or cessation of and supplies 25 megawatts of hydroelectric power. The Free services provided by the dam and reservoir, such as lack of Syrian Engineers Association has reportedly inspected the water for domestic and industrial supplies, interruption of dam, along with engineers who were supervising it before hydropower production, or provision of water for irrigation. the earthquake and concluded that it is safe but in need While catastrophic failures are rare, these can result in of maintenance. The experts who conducted the technical the sudden uncontrolled release of water with extremely visit will report on the condition of the dam and recommend adverse consequences, including large-scale loss of human actions to remedy the damage. life and significant economic and environmental impacts. In this context, the risks to Syria also include considerations of the safety of dams located upstream in Türkiye. 77 The White Helmets tweeted about the destruction of infrastructure, water and sewerage lines after the earthquake increasing the possibility of a cholera outbreak. A report by the UN Security Council also raised similar concerns due to the “severe shortage” of clean water across the country. ( (https://www.foxnews.com/health/2-die-cholera-syria-afterdevastating-earthquake-damaged-health-water-infrastructure) Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 80 Figure 26: Downstream of Afrin Dam showing dam wall, spill way and irrigation canal intake (left from marker). Source: World Bank/Ipsos Figure 27: Medium resolution satellite image (Sentinel – 2) dated February 9, 2023- no floods. Source: World Bank/Ipsos Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 81 Figure 28: Medium resolution satellite image (Sentinel – 2) dated February 14, 2023- no floods Source: World Bank/Ipsos LOSSES ESTIMATES The losses for the water sector are related to the loss of service delivery, which is linked directly to the collection of revenues. However, since the beginning of the conflict, users have not paid their water utility bills and have been relying instead on alternatives (private supplies) and humanitarian support. The water fee per subscriber covers water supply, wastewater operations and maintenance, and taxes. The number of subscribers in the impacted area is not documented. These subscribers may not pay until service returns to pre-crisis levels. Thus, it is very difficult at this stage to assess losses until there is more clarity on the governance structure and regulations of the water sector. Sectoral Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment (including cost estimates) Tables below provides prioritized and sequenced needs for infrastructure; however, the service delivery restoration would be accurately assessed once information is provided on household connections, water meters, length of water supply network and sewerage network. The infrastructure covers the reconstruction and rehabilitation of damaged wells, pumping stations, treatment plants in the first year. The water storage reservoir and tower tanks should be rehabilitated in years 2 and 3. Fixing the water supply and sanitation service delivery entails the replacement of the damaged household connections and length of networks and wells in the first year. This needs to be assessed on the ground since satellite images do not provide any information on underground assets. However, the rehabilitation of the water supply and sanitation networks and the replacement of damaged water meters require more attention and will be covered in the medium term in this case. Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 82 TABLE 40: TOTAL RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS BY GOVERNORATE (IN US$ MILLION) Governorate Early recovery (0-12 month) Short term ( 1-3 years) Total (Over 0-3 years) Aleppo 40.0 85.5 125.2 Idlib 6.3 13.4 19.6 Raqqah 0.0 0.0 0.0 Hama 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tartous - - - Latakia 27.4 58.5 85.7 Total 73.7 157.5 230.6 TABLE 41. TOTAL RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS BY AREA OF CONTROL (IN US$ MILLION) Area of Control Early recovery (0-12 month) Short term 1-3 years) Total (Over 0-3 years) Government-controlled areas 66.4 143.0 209.5 Opposition-Controlled Areas 6.9 14.8 21.6 AANES 0.3 0.7 1.0 Total 73.1 158.5 232.1 Early Recovery Needs. The RDNA team ascertained of the damaged water distribution networks, which can early recovery priorities based on the existing available be accompanied by sanitation improvements and hygiene information and data on affected people. Short-term education programs.78 Thus, the early recovery needs should interventions included providing semi-permanent and focus on: (i) rehabilitation of partially damaged springs, dug- intermediate structures to support water and sanitation of wells, and pumping stations; (ii) rehabilitation of partially affected people. There is also an urgent need to conduct damaged surface water schemes and associated treatment detailed dam safety site inspections to determine structural plants; (iii) provision of basic buildings supporting water and integrity and provide a list of dams that require repair before sanitation-related agencies. In addition, there is a need to the next wet season. monitor and assess potential groundwater contamination due to damage to sanitation facilities. Reconstruction needs for water supply and sanitation include infrastructure replacement and support for implementation. Short-term Recovery and Reconstruction Needs. The short- To meet daily water requirements, there will be a need for term `needs and associated strategy should focus on: (i) rapid repair of damaged distribution systems, provision of providing water distribution networks for reconstructed temporary filtration facilities and water delivery by tankers. settlements and for selected new settlements resulting In the short term, priority should be given to rehabilitation from land readjustment and small-scale relocation 78 The assessment did not have baseline information on the water supply networks and sewerage networks. The satellite images only capture the facilities on the surface and do not cover underground infrastructure. Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 83 schemes; (ii) provision of drainage and/or sewerage for arrangements for sustaining services. The rapid dam safety reconstructed settlements; (iii) reconstruction of damaged assessment should be expanded to include more detailed offices; and (iv) upgrading of sector facilities for improved site-specific assessments and an investment program to disaster preparedness. House designs are expected to support physical rehabilitation, monitoring and surveillance, include earthquake-resistant features and technologies and and institutional measures to improve the safety of dams constitute a BBB approach. These should be accompanied and downstream communities. by investments in water supply and sanitation infrastructure, facilitating the transition from the short-term emergency The Table below shows a matrix for both short- and medium- response to longer term, sustainable water supply and term support that would be needed for both institutional and sanitation services. These measures will need to be infrastructure perspectives. accompanied by efforts to strengthen the institutional TABLE 42: MATRIX OF SHORT-TERM AND MEDIUM-LONG TERM NEEDS Type of Short-term Medium-term support • Support funding of operations and • Improve the capacity for planning, maintenance costs (staffing, equipment, communications, citizen engagement, and materials). financial sustainability of the water sector. • Interim service arrangements for the utility to Include the opportunity to BBB (for example, supply tankers for emergencies. by reducing energy use). • Support mechanism to pay salaries for staff at • Improve the enabling environment to the water utilities. encourage private sector participation. Institutional • Stop-gap energy provisions (fuel/diesel and • Improve the efficiency of existing generators). infrastructure and infrastructure. planning, • Interim service arrangements for the utility to considering the capital and operational costs supply tankers. in the financial analysis. • Spares to tackle O&M backlog. • Support re-establishing the customer • Security to protect critical intakes and wells. database and billing system. • Developing a prioritized recovery plan. • Recruitment for re-staffing the utility. • Water resources assessments. • Support to implement recovery plan. • Conduct an in-depth ground assessment of • Reconnecting water utility with grid electricity. the water sector infrastructure (i.e. treatment • Rehabilitating treatment plants, production plants, reservoirs, sewerage networks, water facilities and network (water supply and supply networks, connections etc.), rapid sewage). assessment of dam safety and irrigation • Rehabilitation of dams and irrigation infrastructure. infrastructure. Infrastructure • Make emergency repairs and rehabilitate water • Leakage control and preparing a non-revenue sector infrastructure to restore services. water program. • Back-up power generation systems. • Drilling new production boreholes or • Cleaning and disinfection of public wells, rehabilitation of the existing ones. network and unblocking sewers. • Developing laboratories and monitoring plan • Emergency repairs to treatment plants, for water quality. production facilities and network (water and sewer). • Replacement of broken equipment. Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 84 Recommendations and Limitations The rapid assessment relies on a combination of quantitative data derived from remote sensing and a qualitative desk top review of reports available in the public domain for the water sector. To better estimate the damage there is a need for more specific, ground truthed data and information to provide more robust estimates about the infrastructure and to understand the baseline conditions, the extent and coverage of piped drainage, sanitation, water distribution networks, and investment requirements for safe dams and maintenance of irrigation services. In addition, a description of existing water treatment plants and associated infrastructure would be important to understand baseline conditions and allow more robust cost estimates. The recommendations for the recovery/reconstruction in the water sector are to: Assess damage to the drainage, sewerage, and water distribution network. The extent of damage to these networks remains largely unknown. The significant land movement has presumably disrupted the underground piped networks, causing severe damage and disruption to services. However, it is difficult to determine these damages based on remote sensing, and a more detailed assessment of these networks is needed to develop reconstruction plans: • Water supply network. The networks constitute a very important and expensive component of the overall water system infrastructure. Besides, their status in terms of number and size of leaks determines the size of water losses. A more detailed investigation on the ground will be needed to assess damage to networks and to develop reconstruction plans. • Sewerage network and construction of new wastewater treatment plant. Work on the ground will be needed to ascertain the specifications of the networks and treatment plant. Many critical infrastructure components will probably need maintenance that has been deferred during the crisis. This could be a substantial cost. Assess damage to dams on the ground. The remote sensing assessment is sufficient to detect the catastrophic failure of dams due to the earthquake. However, site specific assessments are needed to determine structural distortions due to movements or discontinuities in the dam foundations, or fault movement in the reservoir. They are also needed to identify barrier dams caused by landslides and other damages that can be incurred due to ensuing operational safety considerations. A more detailed, structured process is therefore needed, including: • Remote sensing assessment to identify all dams within the earthquake-affected area using a more detailed time series assessment using high-precision satellite images from before and after the earthquake to identify visual damages and deformations, such as InSAR, that can detect 1-2 mm deformations. This could also be used to identify potential losses due to reduced services for domestic and industrial supplies, water for irrigation and hydropower production. • On-ground, rapid site inspection and risk assessment of all dams using a prioritized list based on the remote sensing assessment and prioritization that can rank investment requirements for rehabilitation needs. This should be completed prior to the next rainfall period. • Longer-term dam safety rehabilitation program that would finance structural works required to ensure the safety of dams, protection of downstream communities and assets, sustain the provision of water for related services; as well as non-structural measures, such as institutional capacity and emergency plans to strengthen preparedness in case of subsequent dam failures. This would require a number of years to implement. Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 85 Rehabilitate critical infrastructure. Only a few critical pieces of infrastructure were damaged. Reductions in functionality are primarily for non-technical reasons and therefore, given appropriate conditions, much of the critical infrastructure is expected to return to functional status. However, water tanks and wells received the brunt of the damage and should be rehabilitated quickly to provide drinking water. Irrigation infrastructure status. Most larger irrigation schemes in the affected areas typically consist of steel pipe networks buried in the ground. These underground networks may have become dislocated and broken. Satellite imagery may be suitable to identify wet areas. However, to fully assess damage would involve specific on-ground investigations such as pressure tests and other leakage detection techniques. Rehabilitation of water towers, tanks and reservoirs. Water storage tanks/towers received the brunt of the damage. These are smaller projects that are distributed over a large area yet will be a priority for short-term reconstruction. Rehabilitation of existing wells and water monitoring. Many wells were drilled pre- conflict without considering the effect of increased abstraction on groundwater levels, and groundwater resources are as a result over-exploited. Rehabilitation of these wells after the earthquake should be done strategically based on an informed understanding of the longer- term sustainable yields. Undertaking water resources management studies, developing water resources management plans, developing a regulatory framework for groundwater management, and obtaining the equipment necessary to monitor water resources will be a critical part of the reconstruction plan. Invest in water resources management capacity. In addition to the reconstruction and rehabilitation of infrastructure, substantial non-structural investments will be required to BBB. This will include, for example, a detailed stocktaking of water resources management capacity, assessment of the human capital available and necessary to restore functionality, and hydrological studies to strengthen water resources management capacity. As donors and humanitarian partners are currently supporting the water sector, continuous coordination of activities becomes even more important to ensure complementarity of these activities. Since the onset of the conflict in Syria, there has been little engagement with customers, and billing systems, fees and their collection would need to meet both customer and water authority needs. Currently, a lack of revenue hampers the water authority’s ability to operate and maintain water related infrastructure and services. References 1. https://syriadirect.org/how-did-the-earthquake-affect-syrias-dams-and-rivers/ 2. https://fts.unocha.org/appeals/663/ projects?f%5B0%5D=destinationClusterIdName%3A4286%3AWASH 3. https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/syria/ 4. file:///C:/Users/wb444841/OneDrive%20-%20WBG/Desktop/Syria/REACH_NWS-NGO- Forum_Earthquake_RNA_Situation-Overview_15-February-2023.pdf 5. file:///C:/Users/wb444841/OneDrive%20-%20WBG/Desktop/Syria/background.pdf Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 86 which serve as integrated utilities with connection points to Türkiye. However, services suffer from outages and rationing. Power By early 2023, the Northwest’s network was covered to a large extent with a continuous supply of electricity, including relatively remote rural areas.  In Government-controlled areas, the situation is similar, although the alternate supply of electricity was not Background and Analysis of outsourced to integrated utilities, but followed a rather decentralized, smaller scale approach.79 After the complete Pre‑Crisis Conditions and Trends   destruction of two of the country’s major power plants (in Aleppo and Idlib) during the conflict, an additional six At the end of 2012, violence erupted in the Northwest plants around Hama, Homs, and Damascus suffered partial and since then most electricity services in the area have damage and significant reduction in service. Consequently, been suspended by the Government-controlled areas. and as early as 2016, supply was down to 20 percent of Transmission lines and other assets were targeted during its pre-war level. Following a brief recovery in 2017-2019, confrontations between Opposition-Controlled and it dwindled to below 2016 levels due to sanctions which Government-controlled areas and were subject to looting affected the authorities’ ability to secure a regular supply of and theft. During the war (and until 2021), around 28 percent fuel. Starting in 2020, it deteriorated even more due to sharp of Aleppo’s power sector infrastructure incurred damage increases in fuel prices.80 Before the earthquake, electricity estimated between US$358.9 million and US$722.1 million, was supplied for a maximum of 6-8 hours per day with as followed by Idlib where around 60 percent of the power many as 30 percent of households and 33 percent of public sector infrastructure incurred damages estimated between institutions reporting less than 2 hours of electricity supply US$406 to US$816 million. While efforts are being made per day. Therefore, private generators are widespread and fill to rebuild the sector, several challenges remain, including the service delivery gap at a premium.   inadequate investment, electricity theft, complications with procurement and limited fuel. Moreover, the enforcement of regulations or policies is relatively poor, as many non-state actors continue to influence economic and political spheres Assessment of Disaster Effects: due to the fragile nature of the area.  Damage Estimates81 Between 2013 and 2016, diesel generators (DG) became the The assessment identified power plants, substations, primary source of electricity for Northwest Syria. However, private generators, towers, and administrative offices as after 2016, and due to price volatility of diesel coupled the main assets of the Electricity Sector and found some with the affordability of solar PV, there have been multiple areas substantially more damaged than others. It has been attempts to centralize electricity generation and engage reported that the disruption of electricity provision in the the private sector in major cities and towns in Northwest Northwest, where private sector companies provide services, Syria which commonly use DG of multiple MW sizes, with lasted approximately 48 hours after the earthquake, and was metering infrastructure and set tariffs.2 To obtain electricity, later restored as damages were addressed.  consumers pay a subscription fee which depends on the consumption of amperes. Since May 2021, the supply It is estimated that the earthquake has damaged 9 of electricity in the Northwest has progressed with the substations and about 405 electricity towers with an establishment of three companies; Turkish AK energy, estimated total replacement cost of US$32.1 million. It Syrian-Turkish Energy Company (STE) and Green Energy, 79 Hatahet, S., & Shaar, K. (2021). (rep.). Syria’s Electricity Sector After a Decade of War: A Comprehensive Assessment Issue 2021/13. san domenico di fiesole, Italy: European University Institute (EUI). 80 UNDP. (2022). (rep.). Syrian Arab Republic Access to Electricity and Humanitarian Needs. 81 Damage may be classified as Partially Damaged if less than 40% of the asset is damaged, structure is still sound and repair cost would be less than 40% of the total asset value. Damage may be classified as Completely Destroyed if more than 40% of the asset has been damaged or if the replacement cost of the damages would be more than 40% of the total value of the asset. Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 87 TABLE 43: DAMAGE INVENTORY TABLE (IN US$ MILLION)  Asset Types  Baseline  Partially Damaged  Completely Destroyed  Total Cost  Substations  34   7   2  29  Towers  77,232   364  41  3.1  Total  32.1  is noteworthy that high voltage electricity towers have a TABLE 44: TOTAL DAMAGE BY GOVERNORATE relatively higher threshold of resistance to complete damage (IN US$ MILLION)  by earthquakes, and partial damage (if inflicted) is usually to the base or seating of the tower, which can be repaired at a Governorate   Total Damage  lower cost in comparison to other power sector assets. This was considered as part of the assessment. Table 43 shows Aleppo  15   a breakdown of total damages by asset type.  Raqqa  -     The highest level of damage was observed in the Idlib  9.6   governorates of Aleppo, followed by Idlib and Tartous. Hama and Latakia suffered minimal damage while Raqqah, Latakia  0.1  being far from the epicenter, did not sustain any observable Tartous  4.8  damage.   Hama  2.5  Aleppo experienced moderate damage; around 50 percent of the governorate’s population reported observing damaged Total  32.1  power infrastructure, while 3 percent reported seeing fully destroyed assets. It was observed that several electricity Relative to the overall value of power sector assets in the poles within the distribution network fell as a result of the area, earthquake damage to the sector appears to be low to earthquake, and that their electrical network wiring was moderate, as shown below in Figure 30.  damaged. However, some recovery and repair efforts were reported to have started shortly after, leading to a quick In terms of areas of control, Government-controlled areas restoration of service. Estimated damage by governorate is sustained the highest damage, followed by Opposition- shown in Table 44.  Figure 29: Percentage of Asset Damage by Governorate  100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Aleppo Ar-Raqqa Idleb Lattakia Tartous Hama Partially damaged Completely Destroyed No damage Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 88 Controlled Areas. The AANES barely sustained any damage. intensity after the earthquake which is an indication of Opposition-controlled areas are closest to the epicenter reduced or disrupted service of electricity.    and did not sustain as much damage because the region is relatively smaller and includes less power infrastructure Disruption and non-reliability of electricity services are likely than Government-controlled areas. In fact, Government- to increase operating costs for an already strained private controlled areas contain 73 percent of asset values, while sector, reduce prospects of growth, and impede access Opposition-controlled Areas contain 11 percent of asset to other basic services including health and education. values.  According to reports, firms in government-controlled areas have identified the interruption to essential services as their A per-capita comparison, however, shows that Northwest main obstacle to doing business. Syria suffered most with losses of US$6,400 per capita, compared with US$4,700 per capita in Government- controlled areas.  TABLE 45: TOTAL DAMAGE BY AREA OF CONTROL (IN US$ MILLION)  It is notable that power sector damage has been negligible in Area of Control  Total Damage  sampled cities as shown in Annex 1.8. Government-controlled areas 22.1  The relation between damaged assets and electricity service delivery is not straightforward due to the nature of electrical Opposition-Controlled Areas  9.9  networks and the spread of private generators in impacted Autonomous Administration of 0.1  areas. However, based on Nightlight Satellite Imagery, we North and East Syria  know that, in impacted areas, 11 percent of the population (roughly 4.9 million individuals) had reduced nightlight Total  32.1  Figure 30: Figure 31: Distribution of Assets by Area of Control   Per Capita Damage, by Area of Control  100% 16.0 90% 13.5 80% 14.0 70% 12.0 60% 10.0 50% 8.0 7.0 40% 30% 6.0 20% 4.0 2.4 10% 2.0 0% Substations Towers Power plants (in MW) - Syrian Opposition-Controlled Autonomous Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) Government Northwest Syria Administration of North and East Opposition-Controlled Northwest Syria Syria (AANES) Syrian Government Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 89 total early recovery needs covering both reconstruction and Sectoral Recovery and service restoration are estimated to be US$16.3 million for Reconstruction Needs Assessment year 1, followed by US$35.1 million for the following years 2-3. Thus, a total cost of recovery at US$51.4 million to (including cost estimates)  restore the network to its pre-earthquake state.   The assessment shows that most earthquake-damaged As shown in Table 48, it is notable that the estimated costs assets are electrical towers and substations; thus, it is a of recovery are highest for government-controlled areas priority to repair the network, both formal and informal, at US$35.4 million as these zones include the majority of in order to resume electricity service to all areas. First the country’s power assets, in number and value. At the efforts are expected to focus on assets that are part of the governorate level, Aleppo has the highest cost of recovery functional or critical network. As shown in Table 46, the totaling US$24 million.  Figure 32: Overall estimated costs of recovery over the first three years (US$ million)  Service Delivery Restoration Infrastructure Reconstruction - 20 40 60 80 100 Millions Early Recovery (0-12 months) Short term (1-3 years) TABLE 46. TOTAL NEEDS FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND RESTORATION OF SERVICE (US$ IN MILLION) Need  Early Recovery (0‑12 months)  Short-term (1-3 years)  Total (0-3 years)  Infrastructure Reconstruction  12.5  29.2 41.8 Service Delivery Restoration  3.8 5.8 9.6 Total  16.3 35.1 51.4 Figure 33: Estimated costs of recovery by governorate and control area over the next three years (US$ million)  Hama Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) Tartous Lattakia Opposition-Controlled Northwest Syria Idleb Ar-Raqqa Syrian Government Aleppo - 10 20 30 40 50 - 20 40 Millions Millions Short term (1-3yrs) Early recovery (1-12 months) Short term (1-3yrs) Early recovery (1-12 months) Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 90 TABLE 47: INFRASTRUCTURE RECONSTRUCTION AND SERVICE DELIVERY RESTORATION NEEDS BY GOVERNORATE (IN US$ IN MILLION)  Governorate Infrastructure Reconstruction  Service Restoration  Aleppo  Infrastructure Reconstruction  24.0 Service Restoration  Raqqah  Infrastructure Reconstruction  0  Service Restoration  Idlib  Infrastructure Reconstruction  15.4 Service Restoration  Latakia  Infrastructure Reconstruction  0.2 Service Restoration  Tartous  Infrastructure Reconstruction  7.7 Service Restoration  Hama  Infrastructure Reconstruction  4.0 Service Restoration  Total  51.4 TABLE 48: INFRASTRUCTURE RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS BY AREA OF CONTROL (IN US$ IN MILLION)  Area of Control  Needs Category  Cost Government-controlled Infrastructure Reconstruction  35.4 areas Service Restoration  Opposition Controlled Infrastructure Reconstruction    15.7 Northwest Syria  Service Restoration  Autonomous Infrastructure Reconstruction  0.2 Administration of North and East Syria  Service Restoration  Total  51.4 Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 91 Recommendations and Limitations   The assessment presented is indicative of damage and recovery costs with key limitations as follows:   First, while damage ratings to specific assets are reasonably accurate, damage to other assets such as transmission and distribution networks is harder to assess. Thus, the sample data are not representative of the overall power sector. For instance, damage to electricity poles and towers is hard to verify as damaged poles may still function while tilted or partially fallen.  Additionally, the assessment was limited to the city-level and often relied on extrapolation for the overall and governorate-level damage assessment.  Second, the assessment relied on remote investigations using satellite imagery, social media analytics and qualitative reports to support its findings on both the baseline and post- earthquake situation, which makes it difficult to verify and differentiate sources of damage. For instance, a few power plants were previously damaged by conflict, and it was difficult to differentiate conflict damage from earthquake damage.   Third, many communities, particularly in outside of Government-controlled areas, were served by private generators and informal distribution networks prior to the earthquake. Thus, it is hard to measure the change in electricity service delivery linked to asset damage caused by the earthquake without a targeted survey, and night-time satellite imagery was of no use in this regard.  Fourth, the assessment did not account for disruptions in other sectors that may have affected the recovery of the Power Sector. For instance, the transport of much-needed fuels and equipment to perform the repairs might be impacted or delayed by damaged roads.  As earthquakes typically affect electricity transmission and distribution networks, in particular electrical towers and substations, it is recommended that follow up assessments include an on-ground survey of these assets to determine damages. It is notable that while electricity service delivery may be unaffected in the case of partially damaged towers, that they are nonetheless at risk of collapse.    Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 92 water subsidies, and direct wheat subsidies led to intensive Agriculture wheat production in the 1990s.   The ongoing conflict in Northwest Syria has significantly impacted agricultural production in the region. Farmers face a range of challenges including crop destruction, displacement, and limited access to inputs such as seeds Background and Analysis of and fertilizers. Agricultural input prices, in particular, have Pre‑Crisis Conditions and Trends drastically increased in 2022 compared to previous years.83  The difficult and worsening economic situation continues Agriculture has always been a very significant contributor to increase the prices of most foods, including vegetables to Syria’s economy.  Prior to the Syrian conflict, the country and fruits.84 Furthermore, recent years have seen severe played an important role in global agricultural trade, droughts in Syria impacting food production, especially in connecting supply routes between Eastern Europe, Central the North and Northeast governorates, with growing food Asia, the Russian Federation, and the Gulf Cooperation insecurity across Syria but especially in the Northwest (see Council countries.82 Extensive irrigation projects, indirect Figure 34). Figure 34: People in need and severity of need across districts in Syria. Source: Syria Food Security Cluster/Sector Whole of Syria 2023 82 https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/78286 83 https://fscluster.org/gaziantep/news/insights-northwest-syria-issue-6 84 https://fscluster.org/sites/default/files/documents/afsms_nov_dec_2022.pdf Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 93 Twelve years of conflict have displaced nearly 3 million Assessment of Disaster Effects: Damage and Loss people from their homes and left them living in precarious Estimates conditions. The latest available mobile Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping bulletin by the World Food Programme from Disaster effects are the tangible and intangible changes in January and February 2021 paints an alarming picture for comparison to baseline data.  the governorates within the scope of this RDNA; 49 percent of households reported inadequate food supplies and the a. Aggregate quantitative and qualitative effects on reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI) averaged 18.92, with infrastructure and physical assets (Damage) (overview of much higher values for IDPs and returnees. This means what has been assessed, overall damage levels in numbers for instance that about half of all households resorted to and percentages relative to the baseline (pre-earthquake reduced food consumption by adults in favor of children.85 inventory), damage by asset type, geographic trends).  b. Inventory of Infrastructure Assets (general aggregate The assessment covered the infrastructure asset categories figures)   listed in the Table above. Damages were found to be heavily Agriculture and food-related infrastructure assets in the 6 concentrated in the Northwest along the border with Türkiye. governorates are provided in Table 49 below  The following estimates were developed:  • 8 percent of silos, warehouses and mills were assessed to be partially damaged, based on geospatial TABLE 49: AGRICULTURE AND FOOD-RELATED data showing the presence of debris in the immediate INFRASTRUCTURE ASSETS vicinity. The distribution of sites across impact areas shown in Figure 36 below and more detailed Infrastructure Assets  Baseline Number  information on damage to similar facilities in nearby Silos and Warehouses  41  Türkiye indicate that this is likely to be a significant under-estimate.  Wholesale markets   45  • 29 percent of wholesale markets were assessed to be damaged with 9 percent estimated to have been Mills  52  destroyed. Estimates were based on extrapolations Bakeries   473  from survey information on the destruction of market shops. Further data are needed; the assessment was Public buildings and research 16  limited to non-government-controlled areas in the institutions  governorates of Aleppo, Hama and Idlib. The REACH Greenhouses  96,824  market survey similarly indicated that most markets in Northwest Syria appear to be resilient and functioning Crops (on field, nearing harvest NA overall.7   maturity), in ha  • 7 percent of bakeries are estimated to have been damaged, and 3 percent to have been destroyed. Further data is needed, as the assessment is based The value of crops in the field nearing harvest maturity was on the number of bakeries and extrapolations from estimated based on the cropping patterns in the affected the data on first response needs regarding bakeries.  areas.  No data was available on Government-controlled areas, including the entire governorates of Latakia and c. Importance of the sector in total GPD growth for 2023  Tartous.  The ongoing conflict and displacement of people have made • 38 percent of public buildings and research institutions it difficult to collect and report accurate data. The most are estimated to be partially damaged, based on known recent data (2020) estimates that the share of agriculture, locations of facilities and extrapolations from data on forestry and fishing to GDP across Syria is 36.6 percent.  the destruction of shelters limited to areas outside of Government-controlled areas.   85 Data excludes Idlib governorate. Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 94 Figure 35: Distribution of silos & mills across impact areas  Source: World Bank • 10 percent of greenhouses were estimated to be at b. Aggregate quantitative and qualitative effects least partially damaged. In the absence of impact on production and delivery of goods and services, access to data (geospatial, surveys or social media), this is a services and goods (Loss)   conservative lower bound estimate based on the share of greenhouses in the relevant governorates and a Estimates of losses in agricultural production and food minimum of partial damages expected based on other security need to be considered highly preliminary and a damage data.  lower bound:  • A total of US$127 million  in crop damages was estimated for damages to croplands, with US$ 6 Agricultural activity: Few data were available on most million for flooded fields on an area of 2,865 hectares economic aspects of agricultural value chains and trade in the Upper Orontes Basin (see Figure 37). Other (inputs, perennials, annuals, livestock or aquaculture), with flooded areas were excluded because attribution to the five exceptions: (i) based on damage data for silos, it was earthquake was not possible. The most flood-affected possible to estimate a loss in revenue in wheat storage of crops appear to be wheat and cotton; however, the US$14.8 million; (ii) the losses  in the bread value chain geospatial information did not allow the differentiation (milling and bakeries) amounted to US$6.8 million; (iii) of other crops on about 57 percent of the affected the loss of agricultural labor income based on existing cropland area with at least minor damage. The estimates of displaced people, which amounted to close to remaining damages were estimated as a conservative US$58.6 million and represent a lower bound; (iv) reduced lower bound based on geospatially observed transport access to fields will have significant impact on farmers restrictions on croplands affecting 0.5 million ha and ability to prepare fields for the growing season, leading to an assumption that 10 percent of these areas could further losses of approximately US 84 million; (v) loss in not be harvested. food trade activity, amounting to approximately $1.3 billion based on the foregone revenue by local food system actors resulting from 800,000 food insecure households having to instead rely on externally provided food assistance (see food security needs below).86 Additional and more granular survey data is needed to provide a robust estimate. 86 WFP identified food security assistance need to 4 million food insecure people (around 800,000 households), in addition to 160,000 households for nutrition assistance (to babies and lactating women). Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 95 Figure 36: Overview of Flood damages following earthquake  Source: World Bank TABLE 50: DAMAGE AND LOSS INVENTORY TABLE (IN US$ MILLION)  Asset Types  Baseline  Partially Damaged  Completely Destroyed  Total Cost  Silos and Warehouses  41  4  0  79.1 Wholesale markets   45  9  4  2.5  Mills  52  3    4.0  DAMAGE Bakeries   473  20  16  26.4  Gov offices and research 16  6  0  0.8  institutions  Greenhouses  96,824  9682.44  0  319.5  Crops (in USD)  NA  84,036,014  4,682,756  126.9    Total Damage  559.2  Wheat storage and trade 14.8  Bread Value Chain Loss 6.8  LOSS  Disruption of upcoming growing season because of lack of road 84.0 Ag labor 58.6 Food Trade 1,104.0   Total Loss  1,268.3 Total Effect (Damage and Loss)  1,827.5  Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 96 TABLE 51: TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSS BY GOVERNORATE (IN US$ MILLION) Governorate   Total Damage  Total Loss  Aleppo  142.7 372.9 Idlib  71.0 368.3  Raqqah  0.8 124.7  Hama  4.1  124.7  Tartous  127.8  137.7  Latakia  212.9 140.1  Total  559.1 1,268.3  TABLE 52: TOTAL DAMAGE AND LOSS BY AREAS OF CONTROL Areas of Control Total Damage  Total Loss  Government-controlled 321.8 729.3 areas Autonomous Administration 150.6 342.4  of North and East Syria Opposition-Controlled Areas 86.8 196.6 Total  559.1 1,268.3 3. Sectoral Recovery and Reconstruction Needs noted above. This was estimated based on 4 million Assessment (including cost estimates)   people (800,000 Households) being food insecure as a result of the earthquake87. A recent overview of Priority short and medium term needs:    the food security situation is provided in figure 38 • Recovery needs: Service delivery and production, and below. The needs were then computed based on latest access to services and goods are to be restored by available prices of the standard reference food basket addressing pre-existing and new risks related to the for households for a period of 12 months,88 including disaster.    an assumed 10% overhead to cover the cost of providing the assistance. Due to access and political The following priority recovery needs have been identified issues, these estimates are not based on survey data and are proposed to be sequenced as follows:  (no such data was available at time of writing) and are • Food insecurity: Needs related to food security are hence not very robust. expected to amount to US$ 1.2 Billion in humanitarian assistance over the next 12 months as damages and losses related to agriculture are likely to further worsen an already extremely severe food insecurity status as 87 Whole of Syria Food Security Sector 88 Latest price data are from December 2022. An additional 22% inflation (around 11% MoM) is applied based on latest market updates. Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 97 Figure 37: Situation report on food insecurity in Norther Syria (WFP 2023)  • Coordination: A large number of actors are currently responding with regard to early recovery needs. Beyond the UN system and international non-governmental organizations (iNGOs), these include smaller actors, NGOs and state-related actors that are not yet fully included in established coordination mechanisms. To ensure effective delivery, coordination would need to be improved.  • Access to agricultural production inputs including labor and land: Access to land currently appears to be highly restricted due to debris blocking roads. Moreover, a large number of newly IDPs are likely to reduce the availability of on-farm labor. Finally, pre- earthquake, very high input prices linked to a weakening exchange rate against the dollar and international prices had already constrained access to inputs for farmers. This situation is also likely to worsen. To avoid failed harvests and delays in planting for the next growing season, recovery interventions are needed to address these issues related to access to inputs. These findings are in line with FAO’s recent call to support 300,000 rural families with agriculture-related assistance to secure the summer crop.8  • Reconstruction needs: Infrastructure and assets are to be restored to pre-disaster levels with inclusive BBB to reduce risks and vulnerabilities to future disasters.    Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 98 The following priority reconstruction needs have been identified and are proposed to be sequenced as follows:   • Critical food security infrastructure: Northwest Syria depends on cereal imports for much of its food security. Damage to silos and other facilities providing strategic storage greatly increases vulnerability to food insecurity.  • Reconstruction and rehabilitation of on-farm agricultural assets, including on-farm irrigation systems: The earthquake likely damaged perennial crops (e.g., olive trees), aquaculture installations, on-farm irrigation systems and other farm assets. In a BBB approach, recovery should be combined with technical assistance on e.g., efficient water use.   TABLE 53: TOTAL COST OF NEEDS BY GOVERNORATE (IN US$ MILLION)  Governorate   Needs category  Cost   Aleppo  Infrastructure Reconstruction, Service Delivery Restoration, and Food Security  595.6 Idlib  Infrastructure Reconstruction, Service Delivery Restoration, and Food Security  497.5  Raqqah  Infrastructure Reconstruction, Service Delivery Restoration, and Food Security  138.1 Hama  Infrastructure Reconstruction, Service Delivery Restoration, and Food Security  142.4  Tartous  Infrastructure Reconstruction, Service Delivery Restoration, and Food Security  317.6  Latakia  Infrastructure Reconstruction, Service Delivery Restoration, and Food Security  430.8  Total 2,122.1 TABLE 54. TOTAL COST OF NEEDS BY AREA OF CONTROL (IN US$ MILLION)  Areas of Control  Needs category  Cost   Government-controlled Infrastructure Reconstruction, Service Delivery Restoration, and Food 1,337.6 areas Security  Autonomous Administration Infrastructure Reconstruction, Service Delivery Restoration, and Food 138.1 of North and East Syria  Security  Opposition-Controlled Areas  Infrastructure Reconstruction, Service Delivery Restoration, and Food 646.4  Security  Total 2,122.1  Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 99 In the medium to long-term, structural interventions will Recommendations and be required to enable recovery and meet the challenges of Limitations ongoing conflict. As such, key interventions include:  • Access to Markets: The earthquake disrupted already MAIN LIMITATIONS OF THE ASSESSMENT   severely constrained supply chains, making it difficult for farmers to sell their produce. Creating market This assessment should be considered preliminary:  linkages and providing access to markets can help • For most asset classes, Government-controlled areas farmers sell their products at fair prices, thereby were excluded due to lack of data.   enhancing their income and economic sustainability. • Estimates of losses in economic activity from This can be achieved through value chain-oriented agriculture are highly rudimentary given a lack interventions to incentivize private sector investment.  of survey-based information and the difficulty of • Access to Finance: Farmers and agribusinesses have assessing such losses in the agri-food sector using been starved of access to finance of both operating geospatial information.  and investment capital while reconstruction related • No comprehensive holistic assessments of food needs – both conflict- and earthquake related – are security impacts exist to date and any needs enormous. assessment therefore remains speculative in nature.9   • Reestablishment of basic public enabling services for agrifood sector: Farmers will require assistance LINKS BETWEEN SECTOR AND CROSS- to adapt to new farming techniques that are more resilient, particularly to climate change. Extension CUTTING THEMES   services can provide farmers with information on climate-resilient crops, sustainable land use practices, There are strong linkages to damage in the water sector and post-harvest management techniques. This will related to dams and irrigation infrastructure, which could help farmers increase their crop yields and improve have major implications for losses in areas that depend on their livelihoods.  Other basic services, such as those irrigation water for agricultural production and local food related to food safety, will need to be restored. consumption.  These interventions will help to revitalize the agriculture Other linkages include the broader private sector with sector in the conflict-affected Northwest Syria post- respect to downstream agri-food value chains as well as the earthquake. They will enable farmers to restart farming Humanitarian Sector with respect to food security.   activities and improve livelihoods, thereby contributing to the overall recovery of the region.  BRIEF OVERVIEW OF POTENTIAL INTERVENTIONS  In the immediate and short term, humanitarian aid is Recommendations for future required to address the severe food security crisis following assessments  the earthquake.  The assessment focused on urban areas when procuring This includes agricultural inputs to harvest crops currently in high-resolution geospatial data – which limited the extent to the field, and to prepare fields for the next growing season. which impacts in rural areas could be captured.   Critical inputs include seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, and farm tools.   Moreover, even with high-resolution imagery, not all impacts on agricultural production can be captured. This makes on the ground survey work essential to develop more robust estimates.   Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 100 Digital Assessment of Disaster Effects: Damage and Loss Estimates   Development Damage data were collected exclusively through space- based remote sensing, and the figures obtained are likely an underestimation of the true damage incurred, as fixed assets such as copper and fiber-optic cables are buried Background and Analysis of underground, and some mobile assets may not be large enough to show up on satellite imagery. Overall, only one Pre‑Crisis Conditions and Trends   out of 115 detected mobile assets (56 mobile towers and 59 mobile antennas) in Ad-Dana, Afrin, Aleppo, Azaz, Even before the earthquake, telecom operators in Syria Jableh, Jandairis, Latakia, and Sarmada appeared partially have had to contend with diverse challenges, including a damaged7 on March 4, and none destroyed. No data was constraining policy and regulatory environment, disruptions available on mobile assets in Idlib. Based on the data in the national transport and energy infrastructure, high collected, the cost of damage is estimated at US$60,000 in levels of poverty, and low digital literacy. Operators have also Aleppo city and US$180,000 in Aleppo Governorate, with no faced challenges resulting from high fuel prices, currency detected damage in the other governorates.  inflation, and the blockade of equipment imports due to international sanctions. Telecom Law 18/2010 grants the In terms of network connectivity, a multi-source ground Ministry of Communications and Technology the prerogative data survey administered between February 9 and 11 in to develop policy and legislation, and tasks the Syrian 700 locations in the Aleppo, Hama, and Idlib Governorates Telecommunications Regulatory Authority with regulation.  revealed that the residents of 20 out of 32 subdistricts and from 90 out of 607 communities across the three In the fixed broadband market, state-owned Syrian Telecom governorates reported severe or major damage in telecom (ST) has exclusive operation of the backbone network and internet networks, with 98 communities stating the need and international gateways and is the principal provider for the repair or rehabilitation of telecom assets. Almost 2.5 million people (69 percent of the surveyed population) of fixed broadband in Government-controlled areas. were affected, and more than 300,000 people (less than 1 Fixed broadband subscriptions totaled US$1.9 million in percent of the surveyed population) across 79 communities September 2022, while household penetration stood at 43.9 in the Aleppo and Idlib Governorates have cited telecom and percent.4 The market has seen consistent growth in recent internet coverage damages as their first recovery priority (no years, as the government began to consolidate control over communities in Hama reported telecom and internet as their the territory, allowing for the reconstruction and repair of first recovery priority). The results of this ground survey are damaged infrastructure and the building of new networks, corroborated by network connectivity data collected by the most significantly with the rollout of fiber infrastructure in International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in its Disaster key cities. Supply issues arose in 2020 due to international Connectivity Map (DCM)8 for Syria and Türkiye, which was sanctions and the impact of COVID-19 on global supply activated on February 6 and continues to be updated every chains, and steep price hikes were applied in October 2021 hour using more than 205,000 datapoints collected within a and June 2022 amid rising fuel prices and the deteriorating 200-kilometer radius of the earthquake’s epicenter. DCM data value of the Syrian pound. Mobile subscriptions stood reported on February 6 in Ad-Dana, Afrin, Aleppo, Azaz, Idlib, at approximately US$15.7 million in September 2022, Jableh, Jandairis, Latakia, and Sarmada shows widespread equivalent to a mobile penetration of 70.1 percent.5 The network degradation and outages in all nine cities. However, market is home to three cellular operators: MTN Syria6 services appeared to be gradually restoring during the first (2G, 3G, 4G), SyriaTel (2G, 3G, 4G), and new entrant Wafa week following the earthquake and were largely restored after Telecom (4G). In areas outside the government’s control, two weeks. As of March 5, 2023, DCM shows telecom services internet services are reportedly available from Iraqi and were almost entirely restored in all nine cities;1 however, data Turkish companies, with most adopting Wi-Fi – supported download/upload speeds appear to be lower than 10 Mbps by microwave or satellite backhaul – for last-mile access.  for most locations.1 In the absence of more granular data, it is difficult to assess the present quality, reliability, and usability of telecom services in the affected areas.  Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 101 The economic consequences of the earthquake’s disruption The availability of reliable telecom services, for both basic of the information and communication technology voice and internet, is essential for the return of residents to (ICT) sector include reduced growth, productivity, and the affected areas and is a cornerstone of the development employment in the crucial Service Sector, which requires of commercial and economic activities. Restoring basic stable and reliable connectivity and in 2017 contributed connectivity in the areas still affected by outages, through 61 percent to the GDP. In addition, inequality is likely to the provision of emergency communications (for example, increase, as the poorest are most likely to remain in areas through Very-Small-Aperture Terminals (VSAT)) in the with degraded telecom infrastructure, and to suffer from immediate term, can ameliorate the adverse effects of the adverse effects of having slow, sporadic, or no internet the earthquake on internet access. However, as internet access. Finally, opportunities that previously existed due to connectivity for educational institutions, hospitals, and the availability of internet connectivity (e.g., online education government institutions cannot be sustained through and online work) are also less likely to materialize for those satellite connectivity alone, restoring broadband connectivity people – especially women – remaining in areas with is critical for the effective functioning of Public Institutions damaged digital assets.  (education, health care, governmental services), and for the return of the private sector (especially service-oriented firms) that will drive the recovery of the affected regions. Recovery plans should consider the needs of all types of Sectoral Recovery and users: individuals, the private sector, governmental agencies, Reconstruction Needs Assessment and humanitarian agencies.  The priority short-term recovery needs amount to Recovery plans should prioritize the reconstruction of: (i) US$390,000; out of which US$300,000 is for infrastructure the access network that reaches major commercial and recovery and restoration of broadband and mobile assets public establishments such as schools and hospitals; where damage occurred, while US$90,000 is for service and (ii) the network upon which data service providers delivery needs. These estimates incorporate the BBB and mobile operators rely to facilitate internet and data premium of 40 percent above the damage estimates. At the traffic between cities. In the medium and long terms, it city level, the only asset that needs to be reconstructed is a is important to increase investment in the national fiber damaged cell phone tower in Aleppo, and the full restoration backbone infrastructure and to license extra radio spectrum of services remains a priority in all affected locations. The to increase the resilience of the telecom network to future prioritized and sequenced needs are shown in Table 55.  disasters by providing additional mobile broadband capacity to reduce network congestion. TABLE 55: PRIORITIZED AND SEQUENCED NEEDS TABLE (IN US$)  City/Governorate/Area  Needs Category  Early Recovery (0-12 months)  Short-term (1 to 3 years)  Aleppo city  Infrastructure Reconstruction  100,000  0  Service Delivery Restoration  30,000  0  Total  130,000  0  Aleppo governorate  Infrastructure Reconstruction  300,000  0  Service Delivery Restoration  90,000  0  Total  390,000  0  Government-controlled Infrastructure Reconstruction  300,000  0  areas  Service Delivery Restoration  90,000  0  Total  390,000  0  Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 102 Recommendations and Limitations  The assessment of the ICT sector relies largely on live internet connectivity data from the nine focus cities, as well as on-the-ground user surveys conducted in the governorates of Aleppo, Hama, and Idlib in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake (February 9-11). Both sources focus on interruptions in service delivery, which cannot pinpoint the exact location and type of damaged assets. Moreover, service seems to have been almost entirely re-established in the affected areas, rendering the survey data obsolete (except possibly for Idlib, for which the ITU map has only one connectivity data point).   Most fixed-network assets – such as copper and fibre-optic cables – are buried underground and cannot be detected via satellite imagery, and some mobile assets are too small to be seen from space. The cost of damage, therefore, was limited to that obtained via remote analytics for 115 cell phone towers and antennas in the focus cities (except for Idlib, for which no remote sensing data was available). In addition, no data were obtained from fixed and mobile internet service providers (ISPs) in the affected governorates, and the additional cost estimates (e.g., debris removal, staff relocation expenses) were not quantified. Finally, it was not possible to assess sectoral losses due to the unavailability of telecom providers’ financial data.  Source: Ipsos Impact on Physical Infrastructure and Productive Assets 103 Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 104 Public Institutions  Background and Analysis of Pre‑Crisis Conditions and Trends   Syria is characterized by poor governance, as highlighted in the different governance indicators ratings. The conflict has impacted heavily on government effectiveness and regulatory quality:  Figure 38:  Syria’s ranking under World Governance Indicators from 2000 to 2015   Syria has experienced a series of compounding crises that have worsened the humanitarian situation in the country. The 12 years of conflict have nearly decimated the country’s economy. The depreciation of the Syrian pound left a clear impact on the lives of Syrians in areas that depend on the pound as the main currency. As a result, daily price hikes hit all commodities and basic materials.  The steep decline in the national currency was accelerated by structural issues in the Syrian economy, including decreasing foreign currency revenue streams, sanctions, low foreign currency reserves, rampant corruption in public institutions, lack of production, decline in the growth of domestic products, and dependence on foreign markets, in addition to the large deficit in the trade balance, and the balance of payments.  The fiscal space has shrunk by at least two thirds while public investment has decreased further by around 90 percent. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the ratio of revenue to GDP Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 105 decreased from 21.5 percent in 2010 to 6 percent in 2015. In 2021, revenue decreased further by 83 percent compared to the pre-war level. This resulted essentially from the loss of oil revenue, which along with other non-tax revenues amounted to two thirds of total revenue in 2010. In 2021, US$2.1 billion of revenue was appropriated as compared to US$6.8 billion of expenditure, widening the budget deficit to close to US$1 billion. The budget deficit is estimated at an average of 32 percent since the conflict started.     Figure 39: State budget since 2010 in US$ billions (in real terms)  Source: Christou W. & Shaar K., 2020, 2021 budget reveals the depth of Syria’s economic woes., Atlantic Council.  As highlighted in the published Syria Joint Damage Assessment89 (DA) (December 2022), the country was already confronted with several governance and structural challenges prior to the conflict, which included, most notably, moving from a planned economy towards a liberalized market economy and reducing poverty via targeted interventions to enhance human development. The conflict has impacted the government’s ability to provide public services. Earthquake-affected areas will further suffer poor public service delivery.  As the structure of the economy hindered the development of a private sector that would provide sufficient employment opportunities for new entrants into the labor market, public sector employment became part of the social contract before the crisis era.    89 Syria Joint Damage Assessment (2022) Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 106 2. PHYSICAL DAMAGE TO PUBLIC Assessment of Disaster Effects: FACILITIES:   Damage and Loss Estimates   From the information gathered, total damage for the nine 1. SECTOR IMPACT ANALYSIS:   cities is estimated at US$2.9 million, while the bulk of this cost is associated with damages to courthouses of For Public Institutions, the assessment covered physical US$1.6 million; the most badly damaged courthouse is in damage to government facilities including national, Aleppo with damages estimated at US$1.11 million (see municipal, and provincial administrative buildings, Table 56 for the rest of the facilities). The damage to these courthouses, prisons, civil registry, civil defense, traffic buildings may have impacted their functionality. However, police offices, post offices, real estate registration offices as of the date of the report, 20 of 91 facilities assessed and others. At the city level, the assessment focuses on are confirmed to be fully functional, while the remaining Afrin, Aleppo, Jandairis, Harem, Ad-Dana, Jableh, Latakia, facilities’ functionality remains unknown.  About 15 percent Sarmada, and Azaz.  At the governorate level, the assessment of the assessed facilities (14 out of 91) in Aleppo have been focuses on six governorates that have been badly affected damaged because of the earthquake, out of which three by the earthquake: (1) Aleppo, (2) Raqqa, (3) Hama, (4) Idlib, percent are destroyed. The fully destroyed area consists of (5) Latakia, (6) Tartous. The facilities examined consist of one courthouse and two traffic police stations. Courthouses, police stations, fire stations, courthouses, and post offices.  municipal and national administration buildings and post offices have had two of each facility partially damaged. One of the two prisons has also been partially damaged (see Table 56).    TABLE 56: DAMAGE AND LOSS INVENTORY (IN US$ MILLION) Asset Type  Baseline  Partially Damaged Completely Total Damages Cost Average  Destroyed Cost Cost Average  Average  Civil defense and other  3  0.0 0.00 0.0 Courthouse  16  0.5 1.1 1.6 Municipal Administration  4  0.1 0.0 0.1 National Administration  9  0.3 0.0 0.4 Post office  29  0.23 0.0 0.2 Prison  2  0.1 0.0 0.1 Provincial Administration  11  0.0 0.0 0.0 Real estate registration  4  0.0 0.0 0.0 Traffic police office  8  0.0 0.5 0.5 Civil Registry  5  0.0 0.0 0.0 Grand Total  91  1.23 1.6 2.9 Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 107 Public Institutions’ facilities were affected only in three TABLE 58: TOTAL DAMAGES AND LOSSES cities (Afrin, Aleppo, and Harem), and Aleppo city reflecting BY AREAS OF CONTROL (IN US$ MILLION)  90 percent of them. In Aleppo, around 23 percent of the assessed administrative facilities (9 out of 40) have been Areas of Control  Total Total damaged, with three facilities fully destroyed consisting Damages Losses  of one courthouse and two traffic police stations. Public Autonomous Administration of  2.7   0.25   services across other sectors (civil defense, national North and East Syria administration, and post offices) have also been affected. Opposition-Controlled Areas  21.5    2.15   The city satellite map of Aleppo, the most impacted city, shows the damage and severity concentration for Public Government-controlled areas  22.85    2.3   Institutions’ assets. The deep dive assessment of facilities in Grand Total   47.05    4.70   Jandairis, Ad-Dana, Jableh, Latakia, and Azaz did not reveal any obvious damage to related facilities. As a result of the earthquake, the institutional capacity for Across the six Governorates of 2,351 facilities assessed, service delivery will be impacted by the resulting displacement only an estimated 5 percent of the facilities (106) suffered of Public Institutions’ workers and the lack of financial damage. Most damage and loss in the sector occurred in resources. This will see alternative service providers offer the Aleppo Governate, with US$26.6 million of damage and services at higher costs, a phenomenon that has been a result US$2.7 million of loss. Aleppo Governorate reported an of the war in Syria. Division of the city across Government- estimated 62 out of 928 facilities damaged, out of which six Controlled and Opposition-controlled Areas fragmented are destroyed (four police stations, one fire station, and one governance and service provision during the conflict and will courthouse). In Idlib, three out of the 18 damaged facilities deepen it following the earthquake. While the government were fully destroyed. No facilities were destroyed in Hama, relocated administrative bodies to Government-controlled Latakia and Tartous. areas, parallel administrative and public institutions’ structures have been established in Opposition-Controlled Areas but remain weak. Until now, government funding TABLE 57: TOTAL DAMAGES AND LOSSES remains unavailable in former Opposition-Controlled Areas BY GOVERNORATE (IN US$ MILLION)  and most of their public assets are not operational.   Governorate  Total Damages Total Losses  Aleppo   26.55    2.65   Prioritized recovery and Raqqa   1.68    0.02   reconstruction needs  Hama   4.03    0.40   The damage caused to administrative buildings has Idlib   7.73    0.77   adversely affected the delivery of public services to the Latakia   4.70    0.47   population even though public facilities are not always needed for government core functions (including justice, Tartous   2.35    0.24   policing, cadastral records, etc.).    Grand Total   47.05    4.70   The Tables below show the prioritized and sequenced needs by city and by governorate. The reconstruction needs include infrastructure and assets to be restored to pre-disaster level, following BBB principles, so to reduce risks and vulnerabilities and increase resilience to future disasters. As for the recovery needs, they consist of service delivery, production, and access to services and goods to be restored by addressing pre-existing and new risks.  .     Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 108 TABLE 59: TOTAL NEEDS BY GOVERNORATE (IN US$ MILLION)  Governorate  Total Baseline  Early Recovery  Short-term  Total Needs  (0-12 months)  (1 to 3 years)  Aleppo  928  31.9 2.6 34.5  Raqqa  180  2.2  - 2.2  Hama  324  5.2   - 5.2  Idlib  308  8.7  1.3  10.1  Latakia  328  6.1   - 6.12  Tartous  283  3.1   - 3.1  Grand Total  2,351  57.2  3.9  61.2  TABLE 60: TOTAL COST OF NEEDS BY AREA OF CONTROL (IN US$ MILLION)   Governorate  Total Baseline  Early Recovery  Short-term  Total Needs  (0-12 months)  (1 to 3 years)  Autonomous Administration of North 227  3.5  - 3.5 and East Syria Opposition-Controlled Areas  685  25.8  2.2  28.0  Government-controlled areas 1,439  28.0  1.8  29.7  Grand Total  2,351  57.2 3.9  61.2  Aleppo governorate’s estimated needs are the highest for rule of law, and accountability in governance have continued an amount of around US$34.5 million. Idlib’s estimated to deteriorate. While Syria ranked below the MENA needs are US$ 10.1 million, while Latakia and Hama’s needs average on several governance indicators before the crisis, are US$6.1 million and US$5.2 million respectively. As for including, perception of corruption, rule of law, government Tartous and Raqqa, the estimated needs are US$3.1 million effectiveness, and voice and accountability, those indicators and US$2.2 million respectively. Hence the needs estimates remain low and, in many instances, further deteriorated for all six governorates are US$61.2 million.   during the conflict. In 2022, Syria’s rank dropped to 178th (out of 180 countries) in the corruption perception index, The needs are mainly for infrastructure i.e., police stations, down from a rank of 144th in 2012.  provincial buildings, and a fire station that exhibited the most impact by the earthquake in the different governorates.  As shown in Table 60 above, most of the needs are It is estimated that 15 percent of facilities in these six concentrated in Government-Controlled and Opposition- governorates are damaged, and 1 percent fully destroyed.    Controlled Areas.  The estimated needs are US$29.7 million and US$28 million respectively. The cost of early recovery The governance system, which was already weak before the needs is estimated at US$57.2 million, needed to rehabilitate crisis, has worsened. The armed conflict and a situation in the partially damaged facilities in these areas. On the other which non-state actors seized power in some governorates hand, the fully destroyed facilities will necessitate around led to the fragmentation and deterioration of the governance US$ 3.9 million and will require a longer time horizon to be system. Although the intensity of fighting has declined, the reconstructed.   Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 109 As highlighted in an earlier Syria RDNA (December 2022), the sidelining or undermining of civilian institutions at a local level by armed groups and retaliation against social groups deemed hostile represent a more serious challenge to local government: there is anecdotal evidence that, both in government and opposition-controlled areas, armed groups either compete with or take over local governments and that reconstruction plans aim at social engineering to consolidate political constituencies.  Opinion surveys provide a nuanced reflection of the social contract which signals a misalignment with government policy: although a large percentage of respondents (close to 30 percent) claim to face discrimination based on their religion or ethnicity by public institutions, most of them support equal rights for all Syrians irrespective of their religious, sectarian, or ethnic affiliation.       Limitations The difficulty of accessing damaged buildings affects the quality and accuracy of data, and not all damaged assets in these cities have been captured in this assessment. The assessment of fiscal damage is limited by a lack of information on budget execution at central government level, and of data on local finances.  Source: City of Latakia, DIGITAL GLOBE, DOI: 11NOV2021. World Bank/Ipsos 07FEB2023 PLEIADES NEO Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 110 Pollution, like hazardous waste, poses threats to human Environment  health and the environment. Air pollution is a concern due to the risk of fires started during the earthquake that would raise particulate matter levels, as well as airborne contamination due to hazardous substances released into Background and Analysis of the air from buildings (e.g., asbestos) and spills. In the case of asbestos, elevated levels require special care in handling. Pre‑Crisis Conditions and Trends   Soil and water contamination can occur from sewage, oil, or chemical spills that are not adequately contained Syria’s landscape contains rich biodiversity and resources, yet or wastewater treatment plants that are uncontained, or the country has long faced serious environmental challenges from special waste streams like e-waste. No evidence including water scarcity and contamination, soil degradation, was found that wastewater treatment plant damage from air pollution, solid waste management, biodiversity loss, the earthquake caused contamination that would affect and coastal and marine pollution. In 2009, before the war, local water quality levels. A recent World Bank Damage environmental degradation costs were estimated at 2.3 Assessment estimated that the cost to treat and safely percent of the country’s GDP.90 Before the crisis, approximately dispose of e-waste resulting from health facilities damaged one-third of the country’s land was arable, and more than due to the conflict in 14 cities is around US$ 0.4 million at a half the country was natural pastures, steppe, desert, and cost of US$ 2,250 per ton.92 Pollution due to the earthquake mountainous areas. Northwest Syria is characterized mainly is not assessed here due to a lack of data. However, given by cultivated areas, which have expanded over the past two that the amount of rubble produced due to the earthquake decades,91 as well as urban and peri-urban areas.  is in the same order of magnitude as in this previous assessment, it is expected that e-waste would also run in a similar range, yet no Figures are available on this.  Assessment of Disaster Effects: Rubble was quantified in the World Bank’s 2017 economic Damage and Loss Estimates and social assessment of the conflict in Syria, which revealed rubble accumulation in Aleppo and Homs of The main environmental concerns related to the earthquake approximately 14.9 and 5.3 million tons, respectively, and include hazardous waste streams (e.g., from oil or chemical flagged the difficulties of rubble removal and processing, spills), pollution, and rubble. Each of these damages can and environmental and social risks of the rubble and its result in harm to environmental health and safety, as well as management. The 2022 World Bank Damage Assessment key natural resources and habitats.  estimated that 14 Syrian cities contain a total of between 17.6 million and 28.3 million tons of rubble, with costs Hazardous waste streams are a concern following the to manage and dispose of this rubble ranging between earthquake due to their potential for health and environmental US$167.3 million and US$268.7 million. Rubble estimates harm. In Northwest Syria, these hazards are mainly related to are assessed here using a similar methodology as the factories, storage facilities, trucks, and plants. Oil and gas fields previous World Bank DNA.  are not located in this region, and therefore are not of concern. There is also little evidence that industrial facilities have Rubble estimates are calculated based on damage to produced spills due to the earthquake. Hazards from spills like buildings stock, including housing. The damage assessment oil or chemicals were not assessed through this exercise due calculation of rubble mass is based on buildings/housing to a lack of sufficient information on spill occurrence.  damage assessments at city level, converted from m3 to tons. Cost estimates to clear, transport, process, and dispose of rubble have considered environmental and 90 Delegation of the European Commission to Syria (2009). Country Environmental Profile for the Syrian Arab Republic: Final Report. 91 Mohamed et al. 2020. Monitoring of Changes in Land Use/Land Cover in Syria from 2010 to 2018 Using Multitemporal Landsat Imagery and GIS. 92 World Bank. 2022. Syria Joint Damage Assessment of Selected Cities. Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 111 TABLE 61: TOTAL DAMAGES AND LOSSES BY GOVERNORATE Governorate   Total Building Damage   Total Building Loss  Amount of Rubble (millions of tons) Aleppo  51,735  5,255  30.2  Harem 31,206  4,201  11.1  Raqqah  10,333  218  3.8  Hama  15,289  573  10.2  Tartous  6,987  57  1.6  Latakia  6,504  325  1.1  Total  122,054 10,629  58.0  social safeguards and are based on a prior World Bank study.93 While this study provided three scenarios for rubble Sectoral Recovery and management, the damage assessment adopted a unit cost Reconstruction Needs approach based on Scenario 2 of US$ 9.5/ton of rubble.94 To account for changes in cost levels since the beginning of the Assessment (including cost conflict, this rate has been increased by 10 percent, resulting estimates)  in a unit value of US$ 10.6/ton of rubble.  Rubble clearance is a key priority under this damage and Rubble is aggregated by damaged and destroyed assets for needs assessment. Aleppo, Idlib, and Hama governorates the informal, formal, and apartment datasets. The building hold the largest volumes of rubble, and therefore also footprints used are derived from satellite imagery based on the highest costs for rubble clean-up. Areas with large OSM and Microsoft AI combined footprints. Calculations for concentrations of destroyed and heavily damaged buildings apartments are based on five-story buildings with building should be prioritized for rubble management, as these footprints for the six areas measured from Earth Observation have the greatest risk of contamination from rubble (e.g., (EO) imagery. The presented debris volumes are derived via release of asbestos). Areas with high concentrations of from data provided on space volumes of damaged and rubble also may have blocked roads and access to services, destroyed buildings, and estimation of debris tonnage per which can be dangerous to residents.   unit of building space volume. With an estimated 58 million tons of debris and an assumed cost of US$ 10.6/ton of rubble to clear it, total damages are estimated at US$614.6 million.   93 World Bank. 2017. Aleppo Pilot Environmental Damage Assessment. 94 Scenario 2 was selected as it reflects common practice based on international development experience in this field in Syria, and the unit cost of rubble management under this scenario was also used in the 2022 Syria Joint Damage Assessment. The scenario reflects the following interventions: a network of small and medium capacity debris crushing sites is set up. These sites all produce a recycled aggregate with 70% of the produced debris and the remaining 30% is sent for disposal to the same sites as identified in Scenario 1. Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 112 TABLE 62: TOTAL COST OF NEEDS BY GOVERNORATE (US$ MILLION)  Governorate   Needs category  Cost   Aleppo  Rubble management  320.4 Harem Rubble management  40.2 Raqqah  Rubble management  107.9 Hama  Rubble management  118 Tartous  Rubble management  11.2 Latakia  Rubble management  16.9 Total  614.6 TABLE 63: TOTAL COST OF NEEDS BY AREA OF CONTROL (IN US$ MILLION)  Areas of Control  Needs category  Cost   Government-controlled areas  Rubble management  353.4 Autonomous Administration of North and  Rubble management  166.0 East Syria  Opposition-Controlled Areas   Rubble management  95.3 Total   614.6 The costs of rubble management, estimated at US$614.6 upon open and informal dumpsites,7 this poses a serious million are to be split across approximately US$ 307 million challenge for governing bodies to ensure appropriate for year 1, with the remainder for year 2 and 3, as services measures and waste facilities are available for rubble intake.  and rubble intake locations are established. Testing of the rubble before removal for asbestos and other contaminants Rebuilding of housing stock is covered in a separate chapter is extremely important for public health and safety and of the damage and needs assessment and aligns with the ensuring safe treatment and disposal. Given that solid waste findings here.   management in Syria is largely unregulated and reliant Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 113 Recommendations and Limitations  Limitations of the study include assumptions around the volume of rubble generated, as described above. In addition, no air quality or hazardous material assessment was conducted for this exercise. Downstream effects from these could be present outside of the immediate area of damage (e.g., due to wind patterns or water contamination).  The rubble calculated predominantly stems from residential buildings, and this issue is clearly tied to the dire need to provide housing for those that have lost homes, and to ensure that people are not exposed to hazardous materials found in rubble. The environmental damage of the earthquake also impacts the quality of water required for water supply and sanitation, which may be threatened by contaminants. The removal and treatment of rubble relates to municipal services and the circular economy, as informal dumpsites have become common in Syria since the crisis and threaten human health and safety.95 Interventions should include solid waste (rubble) removal in the short-term, hazardous waste assessment and treatment (before, during, and after rubble removal), and continued environmental monitoring. Rubble should be removed to safe dump sites and tested before removal for toxic substances, and toxic waste should be handled according to international safety standards.  The findings of this assessment underscore the importance of developing a stronger waste management system in Syria. It is recommended that waste management be developed according to Circular Economy principles, i.e., moving beyond the unsustainable “take-make- use-waste” global economic model towards a more environmentally and economically secure system.96 Recommendations for future assessments include air quality assessment and hazardous waste assessment including contamination of soil, waterbodies, and groundwater.  95 PAX. 2015. Amidst the debris. A desktop study on the environmental and public health impact of Syria’s conflict; (2) World Bank. 2022. Syria Joint Damage Assessment of Selected Cities. 96 See, for instance: World Bank. 2022. Squaring the Circle: Policies from Europe’s Circular Economy Transition. Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 114 Social Sustainability and Inclusion Background and Analysis of Pre‑Crisis Conditions and Trends  Prior to the earthquake, the livelihoods of the population living in affected regions were significantly impacted by the conflict. Social inclusion consisted of a main challenge to sustaining development outcomes, with a significant portion of the population living in IDP camps and those living in communities being confronted with barriers to accessing aid and services.  Assessment of Disaster Effects: Damage and Loss Estimates  The destruction of homes and livelihoods has disproportionately impacted vulnerable segments of the population, such as, women, children, the elderly, and disabled persons, as well as the poor. Women and girls, who were already at high risk of sexual violence, face new threats due to displacement and increased economic hardship. Children who have experienced the loss of family members, their home and their community in the aftermath of the earthquake have been affected psychologically, with many suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder likely to result in long-lasting repercussions on their mental health and in their development. Elevated levels of distress have been reported among affected population, with post-traumatic stress disorder being particularly noticeable in communities. Insufficient shelter arrangements for the elderly and people with disabilities, which has led to overcrowding, combined with the lack of services for people with specific needs.97 The earthquake has also severely impacted the population’s livelihoods, particularly for smallholder farmers.   The social sustainability of development outcomes has also been compromised by the significant damage caused to infrastructure networks and to public service delivery.  Sectoral Recovery and Reconstruction Needs Assessment  The reconstruction and recovery strategy should take into consideration the needs of the most vulnerable segments of the population. This would include providing them with the safety and security they require, as well as meeting their most urgent and basic needs through adequate 97 Syrian Arab Republic: Earthquakes Situation Report No. 1 As of 25 February 2023 OCHA Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 115 provision of shelters, public services, and economic restoration activities. The reconstruction and recovery efforts should be community-driven to ensure greater ownership and to support the sustainability of development outcomes. The strategy should promote inter-sectoral programming and collaboration and include stakeholders to support the active participation of marginalized groups in the decision-making process. Women need to be involved in all aspects of the relief and recovery efforts, from planning to implementation98.    Interventions under a reconstruction and recovery strategy would include: (i) improved access to shelter, food, health, and infrastructure networks to vulnerable segments of the population, taking into account the specific needs of the population; (ii) adoption of building back better principles in communities with a large representation of vulnerable population; (iii) establishment of an outreach program that disseminates information, and obtains feedback from citizens (particularly vulnerable groups) regarding the plans for reconstruction and recovery; (iv) adoption of a citizen-centric and gender-responsive approach (with a focus on the vulnerable) toward disaster management and resilience by strengthening citizen engagement capacities; (v) establishment of PSS activities for children, youth, and families, including specialized mental health services, and child protection case management services for vulnerable children; and (vi) establishment of Grievance Redress Mechanisms (GRMs) to address issues of conflict over aid distribution, and over resources at the local level.   Recommendations and Limitations  An improvement in the country’s responses and recovery effort will help support vulnerable people’s engagement in the Syrian recovery and reconstruction process, create equal opportunity for all, including, elderly people, IDPs, and persons with disability, and promote cohesion among communities   leading to improved sustainability in development outcomes. The reconstruction and recovery strategy actively seeks opportunities for building back better to help reduce vulnerability to future disasters and build community resilience. Limited capacity and expertise in providing inclusive relief services may substantially impact the ability to address a vulnerable population’s needs.   98 UNICEF, “Devastating Earthquakes Strike Syria and Türkiye,” United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund, n.d., https://www.unicef.org/emergencies/Syria-Turkiye-earthquake. Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 116 Social Protection and Livelihoods Background and Analysis of Pre-Crisis Conditions and Trends Years of conflict have resulted in a dramatic erosion of Syria’s human capital and the reversal of progress achieved towards the development of a modern social protection system. The rise in poverty meant that more than 30 percent of the population was unable to meet its basic needs, predominantly in the rural areas and in the Northeast.99 Employment in the informal sector accounted for 40 percent of the labor force and was largely concentrated in agriculture and construction, while employment in the formal sector was concentrated in the public sector. The main safety net before the conflict consisted of expensive and price-distorting subsidies, mostly on energy (11 percent of GDP) and food and other commodities (2.5 percent of the GDP). In the early 2000s, Syria initiated a gradual economic liberalization to spur growth, and planned to launch a reform of the social protection system in order to mitigate the adverse social effects of the economic liberalization measures. Measures to support economic growth were prioritized over the development of a social safety net, and spending on social welfare decreased from 3.2 percent of GDP in 2000 to 1.9 percent of GDP by 2010100. A new entity was established in 2011, i.e., the National Social Assistance Fund (NSAF) under the Ministry of Social Affairs and Labor (MOSAL), to manage a national cash transfer program targeted to the poor and vulnerable. By 2012, the fund’s staff included 950 social workers, supervisors and administration staff located at headquarters and the 63 district centers101. However, reforms of the Syrian social protection system have largely been put on hold since the beginning of the conflict, including the operationalization of the cash transfer program. Instead, over the past couple of years, around 157 organizations have provided some form of humanitarian aid to the population102, focusing on education, early recovery and livelihoods, food and agriculture, health, protection, and shelter. The population located in Northwest Syria ranks among the most affected by the conflict, with more than 4.6 million individuals in need of humanitarian assistance. 3 million individuals were internally displaced, of which, 1.88 million living in camps in the Aleppo and Idlib governorates (Figure 41). Medical facilities, markets, and schools have been damaged and became inoperable due to the conflict, resulting in disrupted access to food, water, healthcare, and adequate housing and created a climate of pervasive insecurity in areas already suffering from overcrowding and inadequate resources103. The Northern region has also been particularly vulnerable to climate change-induced land degradation, droughts, and water shortages, which has adversely impacted farmers’ income and food security. 99 IMF Working Paper, Syria’s Conflict Economy, 2016. 100 UN ESCWA, Social Protection in the Syrian Arab Republic, January 2020 101 Abdul Aziz, Linda, Establishing the National Social Aid Fund ‘NSAF’ in Syria, 2012. 102 OCHA, Organizations implementing humanitarian activities based within Syria, January – December 2022. 103 UNICEF, Humanitarian Needs Overview, Syrian Arab Republic, February 2022. Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 117 Figure 41: Population Overview in North Syria as of January 2023 (pre-earthquake) 104   Source: OCHA factsheet as of January 20, 2023  constituted 49.4 percent (1,668,588) individuals), while 24.1 Assessment of Disaster Effects: percent (816,672 individuals) were children under the age of Damage and Loss Estimates  five. Female-headed households accounted for 7.2 percent (209,458 individuals), and 2.5 percent (72,606 individuals)   Damages stemming from the earthquake in Syria have were elderly106. exacerbated pre-existing vulnerabilities of the population in the absence of a robust social protection system. This is largely attributed to years of conflict and economic Figure 42: instability, which have disrupted essential services, such Distribution of vulnerable groups by as healthcare and education and prevented the roll-out of a governorate safety net system that protects the poor and the vulnerable. The lack of investment in disaster preparedness and risk 52,596 37,4713 reduction has further compounded this vulnerability, leaving Idleb 1,037,788 2,114,414 the population at risk when natural disasters occur. 4 In the aftermath of the recent earthquake, a total of 6.6 28 Hama million individuals were directly impacted (as a result of 77 148 structural damage to buildings, disruption of basic services or any other direct impacts that can be attributed to the 20,006 earthquake). This is in addition to around 6,000 fatalities and Halab 441,931 630,723 12,000 injuries across the earthquake affected areas. Out of 1,261,700 the 6.6 million, around 3,376,114 were in Idleb and Aleppo 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 alone105 (2,114,414 and 1,261,700 respectively). In those two governorates of the total impacted population, females Elderly Children Females Population affected 104 IDP figures in the graph are limited to Northwest Syria. 105 Humanitarian Needs Assessment Program (HNAP) Syria, accessible at https://hnap.info/fssportal/seeddms51x/seeddms-5.1.8/out/out.Login. php 106 WorldPop - https://wopr.worldpop.org/ Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 118 The earthquake has generated a massive internal their lives even more challenging. It is therefore essential displacement with an estimated 600,000 individuals to address these emergent needs - livelihoods restoration, (approximately 120,000 households) displaced across access to clean water and food - while also addressing the different governorates . The majority of IDPs likely face 107 pre-existing vulnerabilities such as poverty, lack of access to a substantial drop in income as a result of disrupted healthcare, inadequate education, in the absence of much- employment or livelihoods. The prevalence of IDPs is also needed safety nets. expected to exacerbate vulnerabilities among the displaced who often struggle to access basic needs, but also host In this context, the earthquake should lead to a shift in communities given the increased demand placed on priorities, particularly among IDPs, from multi-purpose limited resources. Further, given the significant damages cash or vouchers and winterization to shelter. According to the housing infrastructure, many IDPs are expected to to a recent study carried out by REACH Initiative108, the reside for a prolonged duration in temporary shelters that need for shelter has been identified as the top priority for often lack required safety and protection standards. In 51 percent of newly arrived IDP households, highlighting fact, regardless of the type of occupancy (camps, informal the urgent need for adequate housing solutions, followed settlements, collective shelters or family/friends) and by winterization and cash assistance. This shift in priorities location (government/non-government controlled areas), emphasizes the amplified humanitarian crisis resulting from IDPs, particularly women, girls and children, remain exposed the earthquake, which requires an agile and large-scale to various risks, including of disease, violence, abuse and emergency response. marginalization. Finally, it is worth noting that a number of public schools and healthcare centers currently serve as At the community level, the living conditions have also transitional shelters for the displaced, also impacting the significantly deteriorated. According to the same study, food provision of those services until permanent shelters are support, multi-purpose cash or vouchers, shelter support, made available. and winterization support were identified as the most pressing needs among communities. This underscores the urgency of providing social assistance to mitigate the impact of the disaster on the affected communities. Assessment of Impact of the Addressing other identified needs such as nutrition support earthquake   and WASH can further bolster the resilience and well-being of the population. A robust social protection system is Overall, the earthquake-induced loss of livelihoods and the therefore crucial to ensuring the recovery and livelihoods of rise in food insecurity have intensified the struggle of the the affected communities. impacted population, rendering the process of rebuilding TABLE 64: PRIORITY NEEDS PRE-EARTHQUAKE Pre-EQ POP  Most Reported  2nd Most Reported  3rd most Reported  1st Priority Need  MPCA (35%)  Shelter (33%)  Winterization (18%)  2nd Priority Need  Winterization (35%)  Food (17%)  MPCA (15%)  3rd Priority Need  Winterization (25%)  Food (15%)  Nutrition (14%)  Most reported needs by Winterization (26%)  MPCA (20%)  Shelter (15%)  communities   107 Ibid. 108 USAID REACH Initiative Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 119 TABLE 65: PRIORITY NEEDS POST-EARTHQUAKE AMONG IDPS Post-EQ IDP HHs  Most Reported  2nd Most Reported  3rd most Reported  1st Priority Need  Shelter (51%)  MPCA (29%)  Winterization (8%)  2nd Priority Need  Winterization (33%)  Food (20%)  MPCA (17%)  3rd Priority Need  Winterization (30%)  Food (17%)  MPCA (13%) & Non-Food Items (13%)  Most reported needs Shelter & Winterization (24%)  MPCA (20%)  Food (15%)  by communities  Sectoral Recovery Strategy and Needs Assessment (including cost estimates)  EARLY RECOVERY (0-12 MONTHS) The needs highlighted in the previous sections necessitate an emergency response that would seek to protect the directly impacted population through targeted safety net interventions, in the form of: • Emergency cash transfers to households who became further vulnerable following the earthquake. Priority would be given to (i) households who suffered the loss of their breadwinner, as well as households with injured member(s); and (ii) the new IDPs. • Labor intensive public works, which would provide temporary employment to unskilled/semi-skilled individuals with labor capacity not receiving cash transfers, for the rehabilitation of damaged infrastructure in the social sectors. The proposed response complements the proposed recovery strategies for the housing, agricultural and health sectors. It therefore builds on the following assumptions: (i) immediate provision of safe shelters, in conjunction with the rehabilitation of damaged residences; (ii) provision of agricultural livelihoods support – agriculture being the most prominent economic sector in the impacted areas; and (iii) provision of psychosocial and mental support services, specifically to categories at risk such as women and children. SHORT TERM INTERVENTIONS (1-3 YEARS) Following the emergency response, it is expected that a substantial number of impacted households would remain in need of social assistance. It is therefore recommended that the cash transfers initiated under the early recovery phase be maintained for poor and vulnerable households, with flexibility in revising coverage, targeting and benefits levels, for the following 1-3 years. Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 120 TABLE 66: TOTAL COST OF NEEDS Early Recovery (0-12 months) Intervention Targeted population Number Average Total excl. Description monthly operating cost ($) costs ($) Emergency Households suffering loss 18,000 150 32,400,000 6,000 deaths + 12,000 cash transfers of breadwinner, and/or injured (vulnerability substantially injured members criteria) IDPs (households) 120,000 150 216,000,000 600,000 IDPs Labor intensive Adults with labor capacity, not 264,000 80 63,360,000 Four cycles, three months public works receiving cash transfers each, self-targeted. Indirectly benefiting around 20% of impacted population. Inputs/material for N/A N/A 30,000,000 30% of the program. infrastructure rehabilitation, preferably in the social sectors Short Term (1-3 years) Cash Transfers Targeted to poor and 264,000 100 950,400,000 Covering the poorest 20% of vulnerable households the impacted population of 6.6m. Benefit adjusted and rationalized. Type Early Recovery (0-12 Short term (1-3 years) Total Needs (Over 0-3 months) years) Social Safety Nets* 341,760,000 950,400,000 1,292,160,000 Grand Total 341,760,000 950,400,000 1,292,160,000 These figures exclude operating costs estimated at 20% *The SSN needs have been rationalized based on cost affordability criteria Implementation Arrangements The recovery strategy will complement the current humanitarian response involving a number of agencies that have been active in Syria even before the earthquake. The proposed interventions will also be aligned to the extent possible with the programs managed by UN agencies and other partners included in the Cash Working Group in Syria, in terms of design and implementation modality. Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 121 Recommendations and Limitations    Main limitations of the assessment: • The assessment focused on the directly impacted areas, where social protection needs are highly critical. • Unlike other human development sectors, the social protection challenges are compounded by the fact that the system has been dysfunctional over the past decade. • While substantial data has been made available on the impact of the earthquake on individuals and communities, data and information remain limited on the supply of aid and protection services in the affected regions, including design and coverage. Brief overview of potential interventions with other actors on the ground • The humanitarian system is very active in the region, focusing on the priority needs described throughout the reports, ranging from shelter to food and non-food, winterization and WASH. Despite all the challenges faced in the social protection sector, there is a clear need to provide assistance to the population impacted by the earthquake, including: • Providing cash to affected population, and in the meantime collecting data and developing targeting methodology for future assistance. • Leveraging the existing humanitarian system to provide social assistance and livelihoods support. • Developing a recovery plan for the social protection sector that would include a vision and strategy for the future. Source: Ipsos Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 122 Annex 1: Total Damages and Losses and by City 1.1. HOUSING: DAMAGES AND LOSSES BY CITY City Baseline of Housing Fully Damaged Partially Damages Losses Unit Stock Damaged (US$, Millions) (US$, Millions) Afrin 6,394 625 460 10.9 0.9 Azaz 700 90 105 2.0 0.2 Aleppo 88,360 1,454 7,631 91.6 7.2 Jandairis 3,488 1,173 640 18.3 1.4 Ad-Dana 2,806 31 142 1.7 0.1 Harem 1,049 126 85 2.1 0.2 Idlib 1,300 33 80 1.1 0.0 Sarmada 3,385 70 135 2.1 0.2 Jableh 3,758 67 260 3.3 0.3 TOTAL 111,240 3,669 9,278 133.2 10.5 1.2. HEALTH: TOTAL DAMAGES AND LOSSES BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) City Total Damage Total Loss Aleppo 62.3 29.9 Harem 0.0 0.0 Afrin 2.4 1.1 Ad-Dana 0.0 0.0 Jandairis 1.4 0.7 Azaz 33.2 16.0 Jableh 0.0 0.0 Sarmada 0.0 0.0 Latakia 17.8 8.5 Total 117.0 56.2 Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 123 1.3. EDUCATION: TOTAL DAMAGES AND 1.4. MUNICIPAL SERVICES: TOTAL LOSSES BY GOVERNORATE (US$ MILLION) DAMAGEES BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) Governorate City Total Total Loss* City Total Damage Damage Aleppo 7.2 Aleppo 17.9 15.6 Afrin 1.2 Afrin 1.9 3.1 Aleppo Azaz 2,6 Azaz 0.1 0.8 Jandairis 1.4 Jandairis 0 0.2 Latakia 5 Harem 0.2 0.2 Harem 4.7 Idlib Ad-Dana 0 0.2 Jableh 4.7 Sarmada 0.2 0.2 Latakia 0.9 0.1 Ad-Danah 0.6 Latakia Jableh 0 0.1 Sarmada 0 Total 21.2 20.4 Total 24.6 * Losses were calculated at the Governorate level and allocated across the 9 cities based on level of damage and number of schools. 1.5.A. CULTURAL HERITAGE: TOTAL DAMAGES AND LOSSES INVENTORY BY CITY Asset Types Baseline Partially Completely No Observable Total damage Damaged Destroyed Damage (US$ in million) Archaeological sites 7 2 0 5 $8.8 Museums 9 3 0 6 $13.2 Heritage housing 12,712 828 0 0 $72.8 Other heritage buildings 6,356 414 0 0 $45.5 Religious buildings 416 64 14 340 $17.4 Total Damage $157.8 Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 124 1.5.B. CULTURAL HERITAGE: TOTAL 1.6. TRANSPORTATION: TOTAL DAMAGES DAMAGEES BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) AND LOSSES BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) City Total Damage City    Total Damage, Total Loss   excluding Bridges  Aleppo 99.2 Aleppo    51.9    1.4   Afrin 6.8 Harem    0.1    0.1   Azaz 4.1 Afrin    0.2    0.4   Jandairis 26.1 Ad-Dana    -      -     Latakia 14 Jandairis  0.9    0.4   Harem 2.4 Azaz    0.2    0.9   Jableh 2.1 Sarmada    -      -     Ad-Dana 0.0 Latakia    2.5    1.0   Sarmada 3.1 Jableh   0.2    0.1   Total 157.8 Total     56.1    4.3   1.7. WATER: TOTAL DAMAGES BY CITY (US$) 1.8 POWER: TOTAL DAMAGES BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) City Total Damage City   Total Damage  Aleppo 67.4 Aleppo  62,764  Harem 0.2 Azaz  -     Afrin - Latakia  -     Ad-Dana - Jableh  -     Jandairis - Harem Azaz - Ad-Dana  -     Jableh 30.4 Sarmada  63,360   Sarmada - Jindairis  -     Latakia 23.2 Afrin  2,420,000   Harem 8.5 Total  2,546,124  Total 129.7 Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 125 Annex 2: Needs by City 2.1. HOUSING: RECONSTRUCTION AND RECOVERY NEEDS BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) City Reconstruction and Reconstruction and Recovery Recovery Needs Needs Including Service Cost Afrin 14.2 17.5 Azaz 2.6 3.1 Aleppo 119.1 146.5 Jandairis 23.8 29.2 Ad-Dana 2.2 2.8 Harem 2.8 3.4 Idlib 1.5 1.8 Sarmada 2.7 3.3 Jableh 4.3 5.3 TOTAL 173.1 213.0 2.2 HEALTH: PRIORITIZED AND SEQUENCED NEEDS TABLE BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) City Needs Category Early Recovery (0-12 months) Short-term (1 to 3 years) Aleppo Infrastructure Reconstruction 24.9 56.0 Service Delivery Restoration 24.9 12.5 Harem Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 0.0 Service Delivery Restoration 0.0 0.0 Afrin Infrastructure Reconstruction 1.0 2.1 Service Delivery Restoration 1.0 0.5 Ad-Dana Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 0.0 Service Delivery Restoration 0.0 0.0 Jandairis Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.6 1.2 Service Delivery Restoration 0.6 0.3 Azaz Infrastructure Reconstruction 13.3 29.9 Service Delivery Restoration 13.3 6.6 Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 126 City Needs Category Early Recovery (0-12 months) Short-term (1 to 3 years) Jableh Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 0.0 Service Delivery Restoration 0.0 0.0 Sarmada Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 0.0 Service Delivery Restoration 0.0 0.0 Latakia Infrastructure Reconstruction 7.1 16.0 Service Delivery Restoration 7.1 3.6   Total 93.6 128.7 2.3 EDUCATION: PRIORITIZED AND SEQUENCED NEEDS BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) City Needs Category Early Recovery Short term Total Needs (0-12 months) (1-3 years) (Over 0-3 Years) Aleppo  Infrastructure Reconstruction 6.1 11.8 17.9  Service Delivery Restoration 5.3 10.3 15.6 Afrin  Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.7 1.3 1.9  Service Delivery Restoration 1.1 2.1 3.1 Azaz  Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.03 0.1 0.1  Service Delivery Restoration 0.3 0.5 0.8 Jandairis  Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 0.0 0  Service Delivery Restoration 0.1 0.1 0.2 Harem  Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.1 0.1 0.2  Service Delivery Restoration 0.1 0.2 0.2 Ad-Dana  Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 0.0 0.0  Service Delivery Restoration 0.1 0.2 0.2 Sarmada  Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.1 0.1 0.2  Service Delivery Restoration 0.1 0.2 0.2 Latakia Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.3 0.6 0.9 Service Delivery Restoration 0.2 0.5 0.7 Jableh Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 0.0 0 Service Delivery Restoration 0.2 0.5 0.7 Grand Total 14.6 28.3 42.9 Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 127 2.4. TOTAL NEEDS BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) City Needs Category Early Recovery Short-term (0-12 months) (1 to 3 years) Aleppo Infrastructure Reconstruction 3,363,759 5,045,638 Service Delivery Restoration 373,751 560,626 Afrin Infrastructure Reconstruction 541,910 812,866 Service Delivery Restoration 60,212 90,318 Azaz Infrastructure Reconstruction 1,217,910 1,826,865 Service Delivery Restoration 135,323 202,985 Jandairis Infrastructure Reconstruction 677,881 1,016,822 Service Delivery Restoration 75,320 112,980 Latakia Infrastructure Reconstruction 2,354,686 3,532,029 Service Delivery Restoration 261,632 392,448 Harem Infrastructure Reconstruction 2,211,737 3,317,606 Service Delivery Restoration 245,749 368,623 Jableh Infrastructure Reconstruction 2,187,583 3,281,375 Service Delivery Restoration 243,065 364,597 Ad-Dana Infrastructure Reconstruction 271,677 407,515 Service Delivery Restoration 30,186 45,279 Sarmada Infrastructure Reconstruction 13,970 20,955 Service Delivery Restoration 1,552 2,328 Total 14,267,905 21,401,857 Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 128 2.5. CULTURAL HERITAGE: TOTAL NEEDS BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) City Needs Category Early Recovery Short-term (0-12 months) (1 to 3 years) Aleppo Infrastructure Reconstruction 46.4 69,653,984 Service Delivery Restoration 5.2 7.739.332 Afrin Infrastructure Reconstruction 3,203,086 4,804,628 Service Delivery Restoration 355,898 533.848 Azaz Infrastructure Reconstruction 1,914,026 2,871,040 Service Delivery Restoration 212,670 319.004 Jandairis Infrastructure Reconstruction 12,199,730 18,299,596 Service Delivery Restoration 1,355,526 2.033.288 Latakia Infrastructure Reconstruction 6,526,634 9,789,952 Service Delivery Restoration 725,182 1.087.772 Harem Infrastructure Reconstruction 1,121,749 1,682,624 Service Delivery Restoration 124,639 186.958 Jableh Infrastructure Reconstruction 981,209 1,471,813 Service Delivery Restoration 109,023 163.535 Ad-Dana Infrastructure Reconstruction 0 0 Service Delivery Restoration 0 0 Sarmada Infrastructure Reconstruction 1.454.310 2.181.465 Service Delivery Restoration 161.590 242.385 Total 82.040.816 123.061.224 Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 129 2.6. PRIORITIZED AND SEQUENCED NEEDS TABLE BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) City   Needs Category  Early Recovery   Short-term   Total (0-3 years)  (0-12 months)   (1-3 years)   Aleppo   Infrastructure Reconstruction, excluding  27.0    40.5    67.5   bridge rehabilitation  Harem   Infrastructure Reconstruction, excluding  0.0    0.1    0.1   bridge rehabilitation   Afrin   Infrastructure Reconstruction, excluding  0.1    0.1    0.2   bridge rehabilitation   Ad-Dana   Infrastructure Reconstruction, excluding  -      -      -     bridge rehabilitation   Jandairis  Infrastructure Reconstruction, excluding  0.5    0.7    1.2   bridge rehabilitation   Azaz   Infrastructure Reconstruction, excluding  0.1    0.2    0.3   bridge rehabilitation   Jableh   Infrastructure Reconstruction, excluding  -      -      -     bridge rehabilitation   Sarmada   Infrastructure Reconstruction, excluding  1.3    2.0    3.3   bridge rehabilitation   Latakia   Infrastructure Reconstruction, excluding  0.1    0.1    0.2   bridge rehabilitation      Total      29.2    43.8    72.9  2.7. TOTAL RECONSTRUCTION NEEDS BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) City Early recovery (0-12 month) Short term (1-3 years) Total Needs (Over 0-3 years) Aleppo 34.2 73.6 107.7 Idlib 0.0 0.2 0.3 Afrin 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ad-Dana 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jandairis 0.0 0.0 0.0 Azaz 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sarmada 0.0 0.0 0.0 Harem 4.3 9.3 13.7 Latakia 11.8 25.3 37.2 Jableh 15.4 33.1 48.5 Total 65.7 141.6 207.4 Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 130 2.8. PRIORITIZED AND SEQUENCED NEEDS TABLE BY CITY (IN US$ MILLION) City  Needs Category  Early Recovery Short-term Total Needs  (0-12 months)  (1 to 3 years)  Afrin  Infrastructure Reconstruction  0.22  -  0.22  Service Delivery Restoration  0.02  -  0.02  Aleppo  Infrastructure Reconstruction  1.38  2.28  3.66  Service Delivery Restoration  0.14  0.23  0.37  Harem  Infrastructure Reconstruction  0.17  -  0.17  Service Delivery Restoration  0.02  -  0.02  Grand Total    1.95  2.51  4.45  Impact on Cross‑cutting Sectors 131