Zambia Knowledge Brief 1 Education July 2022 Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 1. Introduction The country’s macroeconomic environment was weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Real GDP Over the past decade, Zambia’s gross domestic product contracted by an estimated 4.9 percent in 2020, after (GDP) has been decreasing as a result of a devastating growing by 4 percent in 2018 and 1.9 percent in 2019 combination of external and domestic shocks. Between (African Development Bank, 2021). Disruptions 2011 and 2013, average GDP growth was 7.1 percent, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic affected supply compared to 1.3 percent between 2019 and 2021.The chains and negatively impacted manufacturing global price of copper, the main source of foreign output. In addition, lower private consumption and exchange for the economy, declined, particularly during investment that resulted from measures taken to 2015. Low prices and a comparatively high royalty rate prevent the spread of COVID-19 affected the service for the mining sector resulted in the country losing its and tourism sectors. Poverty is estimated to have position as Africa’s top copper producer to the increased by 1.4 percentage points between 2015 and Democratic Republic of Congo. There has also been a 2019 to 56 percent as a result of the lower price of decrease in global growth and demand for copper due to copper, droughts in 2017 and 2018, an escalating escalating tariff disputes between the United States and debt crisis, and, more recently, by pandemic-related China and rising geopolitical tensions. At the regional income shocks (Paul, et al. 2021).1 The large drop in level, the decline in economic growth in South Africa has GDP per capita in 2020 suggests that poverty is likely also affected the country and, internally, Zambia was hit to have increased further as the COVID-19 shocks by a partial drought that resulted in electricity shortages continued to impact Zambia’s economy (figure 1). and low agriculture output. Figure 1. GDP Per Capita and Public Debt Source: IMF World Economic Outlook. Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 1 Knowledge Brief 1 There has been a rapid rise in public spending, which The growing gap between revenues and expenditure has outpaced growth in revenue collection, leading to increased the overall stock of general government debt larger fiscal deficits and a growing debt burden. between 2011 and 2019, from 21 percent to 88 percent. Between 2011 and 2019, government expenditure as a Over that time, external debt made up an increasing share of GDP increased from 20 percent to 30 percent. share of government debt, soaring from 8 percent to 54 In contrast, government revenues only increased percent of GDP. The deterioration of Zambia’s overall slightly from 18 percent to 21 percent of GDP over the fiscal position has resulted in a worsening outlook for same period. public funding for education and an urgent need to ensure efficient and equitable use of resources. Figure 2. Human Capital Index, 2020 Source: World Bank (2021). Despite the worsening fiscal outlook, the need for The World Bank’s Human Capital Index (HCI) indicates better investments in human capital has never been that a Zambian child born in 2020 will reach less than greater. According to the Government of Zambia’s half their potential in adulthood. From an economic Seventh National Development Plan (7NDP) “the perspective, this means that the productivity of Zambian availability of a skilled workforce is necessary to workers in the future will be 60 percent below what could support the transition of all economic sectors have been achieved if key benchmarks in education and towards highly productive activities, raise labor health had been met. productivity, attract investment into the country, reduce poverty and build resilience in the economy” (Ministry of National Development Planning 2020). Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 2 Knowledge Brief 1 Building human capital is made more challenging (iv) increasing the amount of school grants; (v) because quality services need to cover a large introducing a bursary scheme for vulnerable secondary proportion of the population. In 2020, nearly three school students; and (vi) expanding the Keeping Girls in quarters of Zambia’s population were estimated to be School Program. 2 The second brief will explore the under the age of 30 (United Nations Development financial implications of these new commitments and, Programme 2019). Primary-aged children represented using the findings reported in this brief, will also identify 19 percent of the population, whereas 12 percent policy options that can support national education goals were secondary aged. Over half a million students while at the same time assuring the sector’s financial were enrolled in Grade 1 in 2019. To reap the benefits sustainability. of the demographic dividend, the country needs to invest now in the human capital of its children. Figure Education Sector 2. 2 shows that Zambia’s HCI is similar to the average for the Sub-Saharan Africa region (0.40), and much Performance 3 lower when compared to the average for the lower- middle-income group of countries (0.48). Since 2014, basic education enrolment rates have fallen The main objective of this policy brief is to assess because system expansion has failed to keep pace with the funding of pre-primary to tertiary education and the growth in the school-age population. Between 2014 how effectively resources are utilized. The 2016 to and 2019, gross enrolment rates (GER) decreased from 2021 period is used for review. Section 2 of this 104 percent to 97 percent in primary education and from policy brief looks at the overall performance of the 45 percent to 43 percent at the secondary level (figure 3). education system; Sections 3 and 4 describe and The decline in enrolment rates is largely caused by the assess recent patterns and trends in sector financing; failure of enrolment increases to keep pace with and the final section offers some conclusions. The population growth rather than because of absolute main findings are (i) access to education is limited, declines in enrolment. Between 2012 and 2018, enrolment and learning outcomes are poor; (ii) schools lack in primary and secondary education increased by 1.3 access to basic services, teachers are poorly percent every year, but the school-age population grew distributed, and there is a shortage of critical learning more rapidly at 3.1 percent (United Nations Development materials; (iii) public education financing has been Programme 2019). In addition, many more schools offer declining; (iv) salary spending represents three only primary education, and major access challenges quarters of the overall education budget, limiting the remain at the secondary level. For example, 8,494 schools funding for non-salary inputs such as infrastructure offered grades 1 to 4 in 2018; 7,865 schools offered and teaching and learning materials; and (v) resources grades 5 to 7; 3,717, grades 8 and 9 (junior secondary), allocated to school grants are insufficient and are not and only 1,062 schools offered grades 10 to 12 (senior aligned with actual need. secondary grades). While the focus of this policy brief is to assess past investments in education, a second policy brief will explore the financial implications of the new policy commitments announced in the 2022 budget. The 2022 budget announced an increase in the budget allocation for education to finance new commitments, including (i) hiring 30,000 new teachers; (ii) building 120 secondary schools; (iii) abolishing parent-teacher association (PTA) and examination fees; Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 3 Knowledge Brief 1 2 Figure 3. Trends in gross enrollment ratios Source: MoGE 2018. Zambia’s education system also exhibits high rates of While financial pressures are an important factor driving over-age enrolment and dropout, which result in school dropouts, both supply- and demand-side reasons significant internal inefficiencies. At age 14, only 25 impact students’ progression through the system. percent of students are in Grade 8, the correct grade Children who are over-age tend to have higher dropout for their age, or a higher grade, and about 17 percent rates, as do children from poorer households and girls, are already out of school. The large proportion of over- who may drop out to support their families with domestic aged students is the result of high repetition rates that chores or to care for younger siblings. Early marriages add to the years and costs required for a student to and pregnancy are also major reasons adolescent girls graduate. drop out of school. Additionally, the limited school supply impedes student progression, especially at the higher grades. Figure 4b. Percentage of 14 year-olds Figure 4a. Percentage of that are 2 or more years older than the 14 year-olds out of school official age of the grade enrolled in Source: Calculated from DHS 2018. Access to education is inequitable. The likelihood of Similarly, household wealth is highly correlated to being out of school or over age is highest for those school attendance and over-age rates: while 26 percent children in the poorest provinces in Zambia and, of 14-year-olds in the poorest income quintile are out of likewise, for children from households in the poorest school, only 8 percent of children in the wealthiest quintiles of the income distribution (figure 4). The quintile do not attend. As shown in figure 5, in the richest provinces, namely Lusaka and Copperbelt, have richest provinces, the average pupil-teacher ratio (PTR) the lowest proportion of over-age students. is lower. Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 4 Knowledge Brief 1 Figure 5. Relationship between poverty and pupil-teacher ratio, by province Source: Calculated from DHS 2018 and ESB 2018. Teachers are critical to addressing the challenges in There were also large differences in teacher supply the sector, but the teaching workforce is inadequate across schools (Walter 2019). In 2017, the bottom 10 and unevenly distributed. MoGE has established percent of public primary schools in Zambia had PTRs norms for pupil-teacher ratios (PTR) in primary below 30, while the top 10 percent had PTRs above 101. schools, 40 pupils per teacher, and in secondary Moreover, deployment was not systematically linked to schools, 25 pupils per teacher (World Bank 2016). need, with teacher transfers from understaffed to However, PTRs in 2018 exceeded these norms, with an overstaffed schools contributing to staffing imbalances, average PTR of 42 in government primary schools and and significant redistribution would be required to 30 in secondary schools. In 2018, over 4,600 additional narrow differences in pupil-teacher ratios across teachers were needed to achieve the MoGE norm of 40 provinces. For example, increasing the pupil-teacher pupils per teacher in primary education. There are also ratio to current norms in Copperbelt would result in a severe inequalities in teacher distribution across surplus of over 3,600 teachers. provinces and schools. In 2018, the average primary school PTR in the Copperbelt was 31, below the MoGE norm, while it was 60 pupils per teacher in Eastern and North-Western provinces. Figure 6. Pupil-Teacher Ratios Across Provinces Source: Calculated from ESB 2018. Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 5 Knowledge Brief 1 A large proportion of primary and secondary schools Textbook procurement is inefficient and results in a still do not have basic facilities and services, and due to scarcity of textbooks in most schools. Again, the brisk population growth, the number of such schools is situation is particularly acute in the poorest provinces rapidly growing. In 2018, around 17 percent of primary and in provinces with rapid population growth. schools and 7 percent of secondary schools did not Following the adoption of the revised curriculum in have access to adequate water sources, and over half of 2015, the procurement of textbooks was centralized primary schools and 17 percent of secondary schools at the national level. Textbooks were procured and did not have electricity. The lack of electricity and other distributed between 2015 and 2017 to support the facilities also resulted in only 29 percent of secondary implementation of the revised curriculum. Since then, and 9 percent of primary schools having internet access. no funds have been released to support procurement Waterborne disease is a problem faced by most and distribution of textbooks, yet the student developing countries and was a source of illness and population has continued to grow. As such, the child and infant death even before the onset of the shortage of textbook-pupil ratio has increased, and COVID-19 pandemic. However, the lack of functioning the severity of the shortage of teaching and learning water and sanitation facilities remains a problem in materials is direr in rural remote schools. According many schools. For example, 37 percent of primary to 2019 education data, about 85 percent of students schools in Northern Province lack access to clean water. in Grade 1 and 62 percent of students in Grade 8 were Toilet facilities are also inadequate, with an average of in schools with fewer than one English textbook for 77 students sharing one permanent pit or flush toilet. every four children.4 Figure 7. Students’ Performance in OECD PISA-D Source: Ward (2018). Note: The bars in the figures show the mean reading and mathematics scores on the OECD PISA-D assessment. Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 6 Knowledge Brief 1 The inadequate number and inequitable distribution of teachers, poor school infrastructure, and lack of Patterns and Trends textbooks contribute to poor quality learning in Financing the 3. Education Sector environments and low learning outcomes. Learning assessments across different levels of education have consistently shown poor student performance. Between 1999 and 2016, the mean performance of Historically, the Government of Zambia has been Grade 5 students in the National Assessment Survey committed to financing the education sector. Annual (NAS) only increased from 33 percent to 35 percent in budget allocations to the education sector have English and from 34 percent to 37 percent in consistently remained among the largest over the mathematics. Most students could not achieve the years. However, the share of allocations has declined, minimum proficiency established for each of the and there has been general concern about the subjects, with low performance observed across all 10 adequacy of the available financing to meet sector provinces. Zambia ranked last among participating requirements, including for infrastructure development, countries in an international assessment conducted in teaching staff, teaching and learning materials, support 2018 (figure 7). Only 5 percent of Zambian students for the most vulnerable learners, and the timely release achieved the minimum proficiency level (MPL) in of funds. reading and 2 percent in mathematics (Ministry of General Education and Examination Council of Zambia Since 2015, the share of the education budget in the 2018). At the national level, the proportion of students total national budget has fallen, and although, the achieving minimum proficiency levels does not appear education budget has increased in nominal terms, the to have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. real value has declined. In 2015, 19 percent of the national budget was allocated to education, but by 2021 A study conducted in 2021 assessed Grade 5 students this had fallen to only 11 percent (figure 8), with “general in Zambia and showed there were no statistically public services” being the main beneficiary of this shift in significant differences in the proportion of students 5 government priorities. This level of allocation is below meeting minimum proficiency levels in reading or the target of 20 percent recommended by the Global mathematics prior to the pandemic (2016) and after Partnership for Education (GPE).6 In nominal terms, the schools reopened after the first wave of the pandemic education budget increased by 46 percent between 2015 (2021).However, results were not homogeneous and 2021 (from K 9.4 billion in 2015 to K 13.8 billion), but across provinces and rural and urban areas. In urban in real terms, the budget declined by 15 percent over the areas of Copperbelt Province, 9.5 percent and 8.2 same period.7 These declines have had a significant percent of students reached or exceeded MPLs, negative impact on the delivery of education services, respectively, in reading and mathematics. Meanwhile, especially given the increase in student population, and there were 12 out of 20 provinces or localities where has limited financing of key education inputs such as less than one percent of students reached or infrastructure development. exceeded the MPL in reading (Global Partnership for Education, UNESCO Institute for Statistics and the Australian Council for Educational Research 2022). Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 7 Knowledge Brief 1 Figure 8. National budget by sector and education budget (% of GDP) Source: World Bank staff computation using MoGE and MoF financial statements and OBB statements. Prior to the recent decline in the education budget, and the share of public spending on education fell to public education spending per capita in Zambia 3.4 percent in 2021. In 2018, Zambia spent compared favorably relative to other countries at approximately 11 percent of its per capita income on similar levels of national income. In terms of spending education (primary to tertiary levels), which is higher as a proportion of GDP, Zambia allocated 3.9 percent than the level expected for a country with Zambia’s of its GDP to government education spending in 2017 GDP per capita (figure 9). However, more recent compared to an average of 4.3 percent for Africa as a trends in spending, coupled with continued population 8 whole. Nonetheless, the COVID-19 pandemic has growth, are likely to have considerably reduced added additional pressure to government budgets, government education spending per capita. Figure 9. Government Education Expenditure Per-Capita, 2018 Source: Al-Samarrai et al (2021). Notes: The figure includes countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with GDP per capita below US$4,000. Education spending per capita refers to total public education spending divided by the total population of pre-primary, primary, secondary and tertiary age. Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 8 Knowledge Brief 1 The education sector is one of the sectors that benefits from steady financial support from development Patterns and Trends partners. Prior to 2009, donors contributed significantly to the education sector through budget support. In 2007, in Financing 18 percent of the total education budget was financed through donor financing. Several donors were actively 4. General Education engaged in the sector, including Japan International The Ministry of General Education, which is responsible Corporation Agency (JICA), the United States of America for pre-tertiary education, receives the majority of the International Development (USAID), the Swedish government budget for education. Between 2015 and International Development Aid (SIDA), the Irish Aid, and 2021, MoGE received an average of 87 percent of the the Department for International Development (DfID). In education budget, while 13 percent went to the Ministry recent years, this pattern has shifted. Some donors have of Higher Education (figure 10a). In nominal terms, the since left the sector, and support is mainly channeled MoGE budget increased by 31.2 percent during the same through direct project support. period, from K 8 billion in 2015 to K 10.5 billion in 2021, Several factors appear to have contributed to this while it declined by 31.2 percent in real terms. The growing trend, including the erosion of donor confidence primary education program received the largest share in financing management systems in the sector, brought (averaging 68 percent between 2015 and 2020), followed about by regular yearly audit queries in the Auditor by secondary education (23 percent), and less than one General reports, and forensic issues that emerged in the percent for Early Childhood Education (ECE) and youth Global Partnership for Education (GPE) program that and adult literacy (figure 10b). In real terms, ECE closed in 2018 (PWC and World Bank 2020). Budget experienced the biggest drop—82 percent between 2016 support has averaged 3 percent in the recent past and 2021—while the drop in other programs ranged compared to direct project support, which has increased, between 20 and 26 percent over the same period. This with an active portfolio of projects worth over US$350 severe underfunding of ECE programs has a profound million as of 2021. negative impact on the provision of services and can have lasting effects on the overall learning outcomes of Household financing as a share of total education the education sector. financing has increased. Using the 2015 living conditions survey data, extrapolated estimates show that private spending as a share of total education expenditure has increased from 21 percent in 2015 to 30 percent in 2021 in nominal terms and by 20 percent in real terms, from K 2,457 million to K 2,939 million. However, per capita real spending has stagnated, implying that there has been no significant change in the cost of education being borne by households per child over the past seven years. Further work to understand these dynamics would be appropriate, particularly the factors triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic, when learners were quarantined at home and demanded more involvement from families. Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 9 Knowledge Brief 1 Figure 10a: Share of MoGE in the Figure 10b: Allocation of MoGE Education Budget, 2016-2021 Budget by Program, 2016-2021 Source: World Bank staff computation using MoGE and MoF financial statements and OBB statements. Salaries constitute the largest share of the (including teaching and learning materials), and general education budget. Between 2016 teacher education and specialized services and 2021, salaries accounted for an average (TESS), which are part of the use of goods and of 73 percent of the MoGE authorized services, have not been adequately financed. In budget, while non-salary spending received 2021, these items received less than one percent the remainder (figure 11). Critical non-salary of the budget across MoGE programs, a pattern budget items such as curriculum and of allocations that is similar to the findings of the materials development earlier 2015 public expenditure review. Figure 11. MoGE Expenditure by Economic Classification, 2015-2021 Source: World Bank staff computation using MoGE and MoF financial statements and OBB statements. Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 10 Knowledge Brief 1 Actual funds released have been lower than the Grants to schools are inadequate, and the amounts amounts authorized. Salaries, which account for a received by schools are not fully explained by the larger portion of the budget, are funded almost 100 formula used to determine the allocation per percent, which is not the case for non-salary budget school, particularly at the primary level.9 The allocations. In line with the government’s priority in allocation per primary education student is about K the seventh national development plan (7NDP 22, or US$1.25; however, this has lost value over 2017–2021) to address the issue of access, time. A formula that takes into account school particularly at the ECE and secondary levels, location (remoteness), gender ratio, and size allocations for infrastructure development were (enrolment) is used to determine the amount sent to increased. However, committed funds were not each school. Yet, it has been difficult for schools to released in full during this period. predict how much grant funds they would receive. In fact, no funds were released for infrastructure There are several reasons for this, including that the development for ECE. Similarly, budgets for teaching treasury has not been able to release the full and learning materials for the revised curriculum allocated budgets for grants. These grants, were not released in full. Grade 4 textbooks were not particularly for primary education, were sent through procured in 2018 and are yet to be purchased and District Education Board Secretaries (DEBS) offices distributed to schools. In terms of utilization, the since schools do not hold bank accounts dedicated MoGE has a high absorption rate for the funds for this purpose. As a result, many primary schools released (almost 100 percent); these patterns are were forced to find alternative sources of funding, shown in figure 12 below. including collecting money from parents, to cover operational costs, even when primary education is expected to be free. Figure 12. Authorized Budget, Released, and Spent, 2016-2018 Source: World Bank staff computation using MoGE and MoF financial statements and OBB statements Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 11 Knowledge Brief 1 Financing teacher recruitment is essential to address The evidence shows that Zambian teachers are the issue of teacher shortages. According to teacher relatively well paid compared to other teachers recruitment arrangements to address the teacher in Africa, but this has not translated into better shortage, the government planned to recruit 5,000 learning outcomes. As shown in figure 13, teachers every year between 2017 and 2021, with a Zambian teachers’ salaries only lag those in total of 35,000 teachers expected to be recruited during Côte d’Ivoire, but student learning outcomes are 10 this period. However, due to financing inadequacies, similar to those of students in Malawi, where only 31 percent (10,940) of the expected total were teachers earn significantly less (Evans, Yuan and recruited (5,783 in 2016, 3,148 in 2017, 2,099 in 2019, Filmer 2020). However, due to high inflation, the and none in 2020 and 2021). Given the growth in real value of this income could have been student population, the workload for the existing eroded. Beyond salaries, other factors, such as teachers would increase as the pupil-teacher ratio those pointed out in the 2014 Public Expenditure increases. and Tracking Survey (e.g., frequent transfers, especially from rural to urban areas, weak pedagogy, high absenteeism and less time spent 11 on task), need to be addressed to get a better return on the funds allocated to teachers’ salaries, especially in terms of better learning 12 outcomes. Figure 13. Teachers’ salaries and harmonized test scores Source: based on Evans, Yuan and Filmer (2020). Notes: African countries are depicted by orange dots and comparator countries by red dots. The yellow line represents the best fit. Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 12 Knowledge Brief 1 5. Conclusions The education system in Zambia is characterized by low levels of public spending, with spending power eroded in recent years by high rates of inflation, outstripped by rapid growth in student numbers, and plagued by inefficiency, poor student performance, and significant inequity. Access to education is poor, with a high share of children out of school or at risk of dropping out. In addition, learning outcomes have been consistently weak. While the low quality of Recommendation 1: Increase financing, education in Zambia might reflect the decline in particularly for new infrastructure and public education spending, it is also the result of the quality enhancing inputs to ensure out- allocation of a relatively low share of education of-school children and the growing finance for development spending on items such as school-age population have access to infrastructure, TLMs and school grants. In addition, good quality basic education. even though teachers’ salaries represent the highest share of the education budget, the distribution of One of the new budget commitments includes the teachers is unequal and represents a major source of construction of new secondary schools. Despite inefficiency and inequity. reduced fiscal capacity, it is important that financing for social spending is protected and increased. The education system should expand to provide Zambia has not invested sufficiently in expanding the access for those currently out of school and to number of education institutions to absorb its accommodate the growing school-age population. It increasing school-age population. Changing this is important to acknowledge that in the short and picture will require an increase in the capacity of the medium term, the government of Zambia might not education system at all levels. Additional education have the financial capacity to increase education resources should be channeled toward spending that spending as required given current population is focused on improving access (e.g., infrastructure) growth. Nonetheless, the 2022 budget included an and education quality (e.g., non-salary spending such increased allocation to education. The second policy as teaching and learning materials). Without these brief will explore the financial implications of these investments, the demographic transition and its new commitments. At the same time, the current benefits are likely to be delayed, with negative model of spending is not a sustainable long-term consequences for future economic growth. approach to addressing shortfalls in education access and learning. To address the sector’s Recommendation 2:Improve the allocation challenges, it will be important to consider the of funds and execution rates. following recommendations: While an allocation formula is available, school grants are not allocated according to actual need. It is recommended that allocations consider both enrolment and the needs of schools. It is also important to ensure that all schools are provided with facilities that meet minimum standards for teaching and learning and to reinforce the management capacity of key education stakeholders, including local governments. These measures should result in improved coordination mechanisms, enhanced capacity, and better execution rates. Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 13 Knowledge Brief 1 Recommendation 3: Incentivize equitable The new 2022 budget has signaled a renewed allocation of teachers. emphasis on education and the potential to Data shows there is a teacher shortage in basic increase education spending in the medium term. education, which is exacerbated by the poor distribution The second education public expenditure review of teachers among schools and provinces in Zambia. policy brief will look at the medium-term financing Furthermore, PTRs tend to be worse in poorer areas, needs of the education sector and the policy which are also characterized by a lack of other key options to contribute to achieving Zambia’s targets education inputs, such access to basic services and for improving education outcomes. teaching materials. Apart from the need to hire additional teachers, it is crucial to invest in teacher management. This includes improving teacher allocation to areas with higher PTRs and providing these teachers with incentives and a minimum standard of working conditions that can help retain teachers and reduce attrition. Under the new financial commitment to education, it is expected that 30,000 new teachers will be hired, and it will be crucial that these teachers are allocated to areas with the greatest need and retained. Finally, improving the functioning of inspection and support systems could generate improvements in teachers’ absenteeism rates, time spent on task, and pedagogical practices. 1 Poverty estimates are at the national poverty line, which is K 214.26 per adult equivalent in 2015 terms. 2 The Keeping Girls in School program is an initiative of the government of Zambia launched in 2015 to address inequalities in educational attainment related to gender and poverty and reduce secondary school drop-out rates among vulnerable adolescent girls. It is led by the Ministry of General Education with funding from the World Bank. 3 This policy brief focuses on basic education and looks at government spending controlled by the Ministry of General Education (MoGE). 4 Own calculations based on data from the Annual School census, 2019. 5 The “general public services” share has grown from 25 percent to 48 percent of the budget, mainly due to an increased debt servicing budget, which is part of the general services budget. 6 GPE’s strategic plan for 2016–2020 sets the target for its partner countries at 20 percent of total public expenditure to be allocated to education. 7 Real 2016 prices using the GDP deflator. 8 The differences in the nationally and international estimated shares of education expenditure are due to the use of different data sources. 9 School grants are determined by an allocation rule based on three factors: school location (remoteness), gender ratio, and size (enrolment). 10 According to the Teaching Council of Zambia, there were about 60,000 unemployed registered teachers. 11 A follow-on study to further understand the current situation on these issues could better support decision making by the government. 12 Interventions that support teachers in the classroom can help improve students’ performance. As part of the World Bank’s strategy to support teachers’ development, two tools were developed: Teach is a tool that helps identify teachers’ professional development needs; Coach helps countries leverage these insights to tailor the support teachers receive to improve their teaching. Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 14 Knowledge Brief 1 References African Development Bank. 2021. "From Debt Resolution to Growth: The Road Ahead for Africa." African Development Bank. Al-Samarrai, S, P Cerdan-Infantes, A Bigarinova, J Bodmer, M Vital, M Antoninis, B Barakat, and Y. Murakami. 2021. Education Finance Watch 2021. Washington D.C.: UNESCO and the World Bank. Evans, David, Fei Yuan, and Deon Filmer. 2020. Are Teachers in Africa Poorly Paid? Evidence from 15 Countries. Policy Research Working Paper 9358, Washington, DC: World Bank. Global Partnership for Education, UNESCO Institute for Statistics and the Australian Council for Educational Research. 2022. "COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa: Monitoring Impacts on Learning Outcomes (Zambia Report)." Ministry of General Education and Examination Council of Zambia. 2018. Education in Zambia: Findings from Zambia’s experience in PISA for Development. Lusaka: Ministry of General Education and Examination Council of Zambia. Ministry of General Education. 2018. Education Statistical Bulletin 2018. Lusaka: Ministry of General Education. Ministry of National Development Planning. 2020. Mid-Term Review of the Seventh National Development Plan (7NDP: 2017-2021). Lusaka: Ministry of National Development Planning. Paul, Boban Varghese, Arden Finn, Sarang Chaudhary, Renata Mayer Gukovas, and Ramya Sundaram. 2021. "COVID-19, Poverty, and Social Safety Net Response in Zambia." Policy Research Working Paper; No. 9571 (World Bank). PWC and World Bank. 2020. "Governance and Accountability of the General Education Sector."United Nations Development Programme. 2019. "World Population Prospects 2019." Walter, Torsten Figueiredo. 2019. "Teaching Staff Imbalances across Public Primary Schools in Zambia." Study Summary, Innovations for Poverty Lab and International Growth Centre. Ward, M. 2018. "PISA for Development: Results in Focus", PISA in Focus, No. 91, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/c094b186-en. Paris: OECD. World Bank. 2016. Education Sector Public Expenditure Tracking and Service Delivery Survey in Zambia. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2021. The Human Capital Index 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19. Washington D.C.: World Bank. Assessment of Trends in General Education Public Expenditure in Zambia 15 Acknowledgements This knowledge brief was prepared by Natasha de Andrade Falcão and Mupuwaliywa Mupuwaliywa. It was prepared under the guidance of Safaa El-Kogali and benefitted from comments from Samer Al- Samarrai, Nalin Jena, Lars Sondergaard and Thomas Poulsen. The team acknowledge the generous support and advice provided by officials of the Zambian Ministry of General Education. The brief was edited by Simone Braithwaite and GCSTI and laid out by Evan Kindle.