2021/114 K NKONW A A WELDEGDEG E OL N ONTOET E S ESREI R E ISE S F OFRO R P R&A C T HTEH E NEENREGRYG Y ETX ITCREA C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E THE BOTTOM LINE Energy Efficiency as a Driver of More and Better Energy efficiency is seen more often as a means of reducing Goods and Services energy consumption and costs than as a way to expand the production of goods and services. What can energy efficiency do for developing While energy efficiency is generally supported in developing countries, many economically viable investments are not being But it can help raise a company’s countries? implemented (IEA 2019). The barriers range from policy and regula- manufacturing capacity, improve Energy efficiency investments can improve goods and tory issues to high project costs and behavioral inertia (Lukas 2018; the quantity and quality of a city’s water supply, and provide more services—while also raising living standards Singh 2016). Policy and regulatory issues include, for example, low energy heating and cooling to improve Across the developing world, energy consumption has nearly doubled pricing; lack of performance codes and standards; failure to enforce attendance and learning in since 2000; it is projected to increase by another 40 percent by 2030 codes and standards where they do exist; import duties on needed schools—all while keeping energy (Benoit 2019). Investments in energy efficiency can reduce energy equipment; and weaknesses in relevant institutions. The World Bank’s costs down. It is important to consumption as economies grow (IEA 2019). In so doing, they play Regulatory Indicators for Sustainable Energy make clear that energy recognize such benefits of energy a leading role in low-carbon transition scenarios (IEA 2018) and in efficiency regulations are lagging in low-income countries (ESMAP efficiency for low- and middle- progress toward meeting the global Sustainable Development Goals. 2020). income countries—and to factor Equally important—though often underappreciated—is the fact High costs for project development are another barrier. them into economic assessments that energy efficiency can stimulate production of more of the goods Conducting energy audits, comparing alternative technologies, and of projects and programs. and services developing countries need to raise living standards. It investing in small and dispersed projects all entail high transaction can help improve a city’s water supply system; cool and heat school costs. Energy efficiency measures often have high initial costs owing buildings better to encourage attendance and learning; and increase Supported by to unavailability of equipment in the market, insufficient competition, firms’ manufacturing output while holding energy costs down. or lack of access to financing. Yet the potential of energy efficiency remains largely untapped. Philippe Benoit is adjunct senior research Joeri de Wit is an energy economist scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global in ESMAP . Energy Policy and former head of the Energy Efficiency and Environment Division at the International Energy Agency. Silvia Zinetti is an an energy consultant in the Aditya Lukas is an energy specialist in Energy Sector Management Assistance Program ESMAP . (ESMAP) of the Energy and Extractives Global Practice at the World Bank. 2 E n e r g y E f f i c ie n c y a s a D r i v e r o f M o r e a n d B e t t e r G o o d s a n d Se r v i c e s Widespread lack of awareness and behavioral inertia com- Bergh 2011). In the example just cited, the user values a cooler room pound the problem. There is a shortage of credible data on energy and derives additional utility from it. consumption, information on energy efficiency opportunities, and The focus on energy savings is also apparent in the approaches evaluations of programs and their costs and impacts. There is a taken by national agencies, multilateral development banks, and reluctance to do things differently, try new approaches, or take action other international organizations in evaluating energy efficiency proj- The energy efficiency in the face of perceived risk. Inertia is reinforced if consumers are not ects. Technical documents on evaluating energy efficiency projects narrative has often failed charged prices that reflect the true cost of energy. tend to focus on the value of energy saved and on averted GHG Existing incentives are far from sufficient to overcome the inertia. emissions as the main economic benefits of such projects (ESMAP to resonate in developing The entities making capital investment decisions may not be the 2017; European Investment Bank 2013; European Commission countries because it same as those paying the energy bills; thus they have competing 2014; Li, Haeri, and Reynolds 2018; Rajbhandari and Zhang 2017; UK focuses on reducing energy priorities. Investors may expect to see returns in an unrealistically Government 2018; World Bank 2015, 2017). consumption rather than short time frame. Although there is recognition that other benefits can be substan- In addition to these obstacles, the energy efficiency narrative, tial in some cases, the guidance documents usually note that these on development objectives explained below, has often failed to resonate in developing countries are difficult to quantify. Moreover, they seldom refer to the additional such as expanding the goods and services produced by more efficient processes. and has not been aligned with their development objectives. production of goods Where energy efficiency investments do lead to an increase in and services and raising the production of goods and services, existing guidance captures the Where does the current energy efficiency narrative benefits using an “adjusted baseline” methodology. This approach standards of living. go wrong in developing countries? shows energy savings relative to a hypothetical counterfactual case Energy efficiency is often misunderstood solely as in which an equivalent amount of goods and services was produced a means of reducing energy consumption in a less energy-efficient fashion. For example, if a building retrofit produces more-comfortable indoor temperatures, existing guidance The benefits of saving energy and reducing emissions of greenhouse for economic analysis approximates this benefit by quantifying energy gases (GHG) have been well received in developed countries, where savings relative to a counterfactual circumstance in which the same living standards are high and demand for essential services—elec- temperature is reached, at greater expense, without the retrofit. tricity for appliances and lighting, water supply and sanitation, space This approach might be acceptable when it is difficult to assess heating or cooling—is largely met. However, they do not resonate the value of additional goods and services being produced. Still, in a developing country context where demand for such goods and it should be recognized that the value of the economic benefits services is unmet. is highly dependent on the assumptions (and the plausibility) of The focus on saving energy in developed countries spawned the the counterfactual scenario deemed to produce the same level of term “rebound effect,” which may be understood as the effect of goods and services. More important, by casting energy efficiency consumers’ behavioral responses on expected energy savings. For projects into a framework of economic analysis that, by default, example, after residential air conditioners are replaced with more measures benefits in terms of energy savings, one neglects the efficient units, improved efficiency can reduce incentives to switch point that investments in energy efficiency can and often do boost off air conditioners or prompt users to set the units at a lower tem- the production of goods and services. If the benefits of a project perature, pushing up consumption as costs fall. But these behavioral shift from energy savings toward providing more goods or better responses can also represent economic benefits through their utility services, it may be argued that the focus of the project objective and to the user and, more broadly, the economy (IEA 2014; Ryan and the economic analysis should shift accordingly. The issue becomes Campbell 2014; de la Rue du Can, McNeil, and Leventis 2015; van den even more compelling when there is no clear counterfactual that 3 E n e r g y E f f i c ie n c y a s a D r i v e r o f M o r e a n d B e t t e r G o o d s a n d Se r v i c e s could deliver the same goods and services. It becomes obvious in changes introduced by these projects, compared with the status greenfield projects—namely, projects designed to provide goods or quo, in terms of (i) the level of goods or services provided, (ii) their services not by replacing existing infrastructure or equipment but absolute final energy consumption, and (iii) the specific energy by installing new infrastructure or equipment. Greenfield projects consumption involved in producing them. (discussed below) aim to provide these additional goods or services Brownfield projects in category 1 are designed to reduce energy By casting energy efficiency in a more energy-efficient manner than would be possible under consumption, not to raise the level of goods or services provided. projects into a framework business as usual, but they nevertheless increase energy consump- An example would be an investment to install efficient light bulbs tion over the status quo. in households that had been using inefficient ones. The investment of economic analysis A sound framework for the economic analysis of energy effi- provides the same level of service while reducing a specific type of that, by default, measures ciency must recognize the benefits of additional goods and services energy consumption. benefits in terms of energy and strengthen the case for energy efficiency investments that bring Brownfield projects in category 2 aim to reduce “specific energy savings, one neglects the those benefits. consumption” (a term of art designating units of energy consumed per unit of a good supplied) while raising the level of goods or point that investments How can we do justice to energy efficiency’s services provided. An example is an investment that increases in energy efficiency can industrial production after replacing existing equipment with more and often do boost the productive role? energy-efficient equipment. The absolute energy consumption may (i) production of goods and An essential step is to recognize the economic decrease, (ii) remain the same, or (iii) increase over the status quo. benefits of the additional goods and services brought Greenfield energy-efficiency projects (category 3) aim to provide services. additional goods or services by supplying new infrastructure or about through energy efficiency equipment (as opposed to replacing existing equipment). An example Energy efficiency measures can be broadly defined as those that would be installing streetlights where none had been present or decrease the energy intensity (specific energy consumption per unit installing air conditioners in previously uncooled public buildings. of output) of goods or services compared with a business-as-usual Since greenfield projects add new infrastructure or equipment, a approach. We describe four types of projects below—three on specific status quo equivalent of energy consumption, even if easily the demand side and one on the supply side. Table 1 presents the defined, would be beside the point. Table 1. Categories of energy efficiency projects from the perspective of the production of additional goods and services Changes from status quo Specific energy consumption Level of goods or services Absolute final energy for goods or services provided Project category and type provided (unit of output) consumption (energy input) (energy input/unit of output) 1 Brownfield: Reduce energy consumption No change Decrease Decrease Demand Decrease, increase, or no change side 2 Brownfield: Increase goods or services Increase Decrease (more than one state is possible) 3 Greenfield Increase Increase Not defined 4 Supply-side Increase Increase Not defined Source: Authors’ original compilation. 4 E n e r g y E f f i c ie n c y a s a D r i v e r o f M o r e a n d B e t t e r G o o d s a n d Se r v i c e s Supply-side energy efficiency projects (category 4) involve streetlights in an unserved neighborhood would be the installation of measures to improve efficiency in the production and delivery of conventional streetlights in the same neighborhood. energy to consumers—for example, by improving the efficiency of The rest of this Live Wire focuses on demand-side energy electricity generation by upgrading gas turbines to combined cycle efficiency projects that yield increases in goods or services—namely or by reducing technical losses in electricity transmission or distribu- projects in categories 2 and 3. We do not concern ourselves further A sound framework for tion. These projects typically deliver more energy to consumers. In with categories 1 and 4. Brownfield energy efficiency projects the economic analysis of other words, they increase both the level of goods and services and designed to increase goods or services (category 2) and greenfield final energy consumption. energy efficiency projects (category 3) may be evaluated using energy efficiency must In any economic analysis of a project, the counterfactual needs either type of counterfactual, depending on circumstances. When recognize the benefits to be clearly established. Typical counterfactuals for energy efficiency evaluating a project compared with a status quo counterfactual, the of additional goods and projects are status quo counterfactuals and alternative scenario economic benefits result from the increase in the level of goods or services and strengthen counterfactuals. services provided by the project (table 2). Status quo counterfactuals. A status quo counterfactual for When evaluating a project against an alternative scenario coun- the case for energy a street lighting project to install efficient streetlights in an unserved terfactual, the first step is to establish an alternative scenario that efficiency investments that area would be based on the assumption that the area continues to provides the same level of goods or services as the project without bring those benefits. have no street lights. improvements in energy efficiency. For a brownfield energy efficiency Alternative scenario counterfactuals. An example of an project, the alternative scenario could incorporate increases in alternative scenario counterfactual for a project to install efficient the level of goods or services using the existing infrastructure or Table 2. Economic analysis of energy efficiency projects using the status quo counterfactual Category 2. Brownfield Category 3. Greenfield Project example Water supply project that raises energy efficiency and service levels Streetlight project that installs efficient streetlights (e.g., quantity, quality, and reliability of water supply) by improving in an unserved area. reservoirs, treatment plants, transmission/distribution pipes, etc. Estimate the value of the Avoided “coping” costs, both direct (e.g., cost of constructing Improved safety, reduced traffic accidents, benefits incremental goods or services household water tanks to cope with unreliable supply) and indirect from stimulation of local commerce. costs (e.g., reduced sickness caused by poor water quality); plus value of incremental water accessible owing to expanded hours of supply. Estimate the value of the This involves a comparison of energy consumption before (status Increased energy consumption and associated change in energy consumption quo) and after the project. For example, the energy efficiency of water GHG emissions from new street-lighting and associated GHG emissions supply would be improved through greater efficiency in pumping and a installations. reduction of water losses, thus reducing specific energy consumption (units of energy consumed per unit of water supplied). However, better service levels could require more energy. The net effect on absolute energy consumption may be higher or lower. Changes in GHG emissions would follow from any differences in absolute energy consumption. Estimate other project Capital expenditures for investments in water supply infrastructure, Capital expenditures to install new streetlights, economic costs and benefits changes in operation and maintenance of water supply system, other poles, controls, and distribution lines; cost externalities. to operate and maintain new street-lighting infrastructure. Source: Authors’ original compilation. 5 E n e r g y E f f i c ie n c y a s a D r i v e r o f M o r e a n d B e t t e r G o o d s a n d Se r v i c e s Table 3. Economic analysis of energy efficiency projects using the alternative scenario counterfactual Category 2. Brownfield Category 3. Greenfield Project example A building retrofit project that improves the energy efficiency and A space-cooling project that installs energy comfort levels of buildings by increasing the indoor temperature to the efficient air conditioners in public buildings that norm (typically 20 to 22°C). Measures might include upgrades of heating presently have no cooling. The concept of energy and ventilation systems, lighting, insulation, windows, and so on. productivity—the inverse Establish a realistic alternative The buildings are not retrofitted and the indoor temperature is adjusted Less efficient air conditioners are installed to scenario that provides the using the next best means (e.g., existing space heating) resulting in provide the same level of cooling as the project of energy intensity— same level of goods or higher consumption of heating fuel. but with greater electricity consumption. services as the project emphasizes energy Estimate the value of The project investments deliver desired temperature levels with less The project investments deliver the desired efficiency as a means to the reduction in energy heating fuel than the alternative scenario, resulting in energy savings cooling levels more efficiently than the alternative produce the goods and consumption and associated and GHG emission reductions compared with the alternative scenario. scenario, resulting in energy savings and GHG emissions of the project GHG emission reductions compared with the services that developing versus the alternative scenario alternative scenario. countries need. Estimate other economic Capital expenditures for the building retrofits, increased O&M costs due Incremental capital expenditures for more benefits and costs over the to additional equipment, etc. Benefits may include a decrease in O&M efficient air conditioners compared with alternative scenario cost due to the lower cost of maintaining new equipment. conventional air conditioners. Source: Authors’ compilation. O&M = operations and maintenance equipment, if its capacity can accommodate such an increase. If increased cooling benefits are valued by at least the cost of energy it cannot—and this also applies for all greenfield energy efficiency to the beneficiary. projects—the alternative scenario involves constructing or installing new conventional infrastructure or equipment (business as usual) How can we implement this approach? using feasible assumptions (World Bank 2020). The economic benefits result from the energy savings and associated reductions in Change the narrative, explore greenfield energy GHG emissions brought about by the project, as compared with the efficiency, and collaborate across sectors alternative scenario (table 3). Recognizing the power of energy efficiency to increase goods When a rebound in energy consumption spurs greater consump- and services is particularly important for low- and middle-income tion of goods and services, it is often accompanied by economic countries. Stronger narratives about how energy efficiency projects benefits, the valuation of which is no different from that laid out above for projects in categories 2 and 3. Where the rebound is can boost production, improve essential services, and reach a minimal, or where the economic framework does not value the range of SDG targets would help communicate the benefits of such additional goods or services consumed, a second-best approach projects. And they might facilitate shifts from energy efficiency would be to value the additional goods and services at the cost of projects that save energy in absolute terms toward projects that the energy consumed by the rebound. For example, if the beneficiary increase goods and services. Stronger narratives about energy of a residential air-conditioning project pays the electricity bill and efficiency projects can also address the rebound effect of energy sets air conditioners at a lower temperature after receiving an efficiency measures. The concept of energy productivity—the inverse upgrade to energy efficient air conditioners, one could argue that of energy intensity—can be useful here. It emphasizes the narrative 6 E n e r g y E f f i c ie n c y a s a D r i v e r o f M o r e a n d B e t t e r G o o d s a n d Se r v i c e s An overly restrictive focus on energy savings and averted GHG emissions may divert attention from equally viable—and possibly preferable— alternative investments that raise energy efficiency while also raising standards of living and producing more goods and services. that energy efficiency is a means to produce the goods and services (whether intentional or by rebound) can often be approximated by that developing countries need. the energy cost of their production (see case study on determining An overly restrictive focus on energy efficiency savings and the economic value of space cooling from air conditioners in Benoit, averted GHG emissions may divert attention from equally viable— Lukas, de Wit, and Zinetti 2020). and possibly preferable—investment alternatives. This is of particular Since demand-side energy efficiency generally requires concern for projects in categories 2 and 3 that are analyzed using measures and actions outside the energy sector—for example, in a status quo counterfactual. Even though the estimated value of buildings, transport, industry, agriculture, and municipal services— additional goods and services that these projects bring can be quantifying increases in the production of goods or services will subject to significant uncertainty, efforts to determine these values often require collaboration with experts in these sectors. In fact, can provide useful information and, if done consistently over time, many opportunities for energy efficiency that involve boosting would permit a better ranking of investment alternatives. At the very production and service levels are likely to be led by stakeholders in least it should be recognized that the minimum value of additional these sectors. For that reason, collaboration between the energy goods and services produced by energy-intensive processes sector and other sectors is essential. 7 E n e r g y E f f i c ie n c y a s a D r i v e r o f M o r e a n d B e t t e r G o o d s a n d Se r v i c e s References Lukas, Aditya. 2018. “Financing Energy Efficiency, Part 1: Revolving MAKE FURTHER Benoit, P . 2019. “Energy and development in a changing world: A Funds.” Live Wire 2018/88. Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle. CONNECTIONS net/10986/30388. framework for the 21st century.” https://energypolicy.columbia. Rajbhandari, Ashish, and Fan Zhang. 2017. “Does Energy Efficiency Live Wire 2014/11. “Designing Credit Lines for edu/research/energy-and-development-changing-world-frame- Energy Efficiency,” by Ashok Sarkar, Jonathan Promote Economic Growth? Evidence from a Multi-Country and work-21st-century. Columbia University | SIPA Center on Global Sinton, and Joeri de Wit. 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This Live Wire was developed as part of the research activity “Energy Live Wire 2018/95. “Residential Energy Li, M., H. Haeri, and A. Reynolds. 2018. The Uniform Methods Project: efficiency in developing countries: Towards a paradigm shift in assessing its Efficiency,” by Aditya Lukas. Methods for Determining Energy-Efficiency Savings for Specific contributions to development” conducted under the Energy for Economic Live Wire 2018/96. “Energy Efficiency in Industry,” by Zuzana Dobrotkova, Aditya Lukas, Measures. Golden, CO: National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Growth (EEG) Research Program administered by ESMAP and funded by and Jas Singh. NREL/SR-7A40-70472. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/70472. UKAid. The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of Peter pdf. Meier, Ashok Sarkar, and Jas Singh, and the peer-reviewers Henrik Jensen and Live Wire 2019/99. “Beyond the Last Mile: Piloting High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions Heating Ivan Jaques. 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