Global Skill Partnerships for Migration P R E PA R I N G T O M O R R OW ’S WORKERS FOR HOME AND ABROAD Pablo Acosta, Çaglar Özden, Jeremy Lebow, Limon Rodriguez, and Evelina Dahlgren Global Skill Partnerships for Migration PREPARING TOMORROW’S WORKERS FOR HOME AND ABROAD Pablo Acosta, Çaglar Özden, Jeremy Lebow, Limon Rodriguez, and Evelina Dahlgren © 2025 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank Group with external contributions. “The World Bank Group” refers to the legally separate organizations of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Development Asso- ciation (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). The World Bank Group does not guarantee the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content included in this work, or the conclusions or judgments described herein, and accepts no responsibility or liability for any omissions or errors (including, without limitation, typographical errors and technical errors) in the content whatsoever or for reliance thereon. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Group concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The findings, interpreta- tions, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations of the World Bank Group, their respective Boards of Executive Directors, and the governments they represent. The contents of this work are intended for general informational purposes only and are not intended to constitute legal, securities, or investment advice, an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. Some of the orga- nizations of the World Bank Group or their affiliates may have an investment in, provide other advice or services to, or otherwise have a financial interest in, certain of the companies and parties named herein. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of any of the organizations of The World Bank Group, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given and all further permissions that may be required for such use (as noted herein) are acquired. The World Bank Group does not warrant that the content contained in this work will not infringe on the rights of third parties, and accepts no responsibility or liability in this regard. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Photos: Bussakon/Adobe Stock (cover); sakareeya/Adobe Stock (divider) Editing: Fayre Makeig and Nita Congress Design and layout: Nita Congress Contents Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Authors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x Glossary of terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xii Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiv Overview 1 1: At a crossroads: How labor migration systems must adapt to evolving demographic and economic trends 17 1.1 Demographic imbalances . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 1.2 Sectoral and occupational shortages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 1.3 Global supply of skills . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 1.4 Evolving migration trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 1.5 Tying it all together: Implications of current demographic, skill, and migration trends for the future of global migration systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Spotlight 1: International migration of health care workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Spotlight 2: International migration of education workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 2: The principles of Global Skill Partnerships 53 2.1 GSPs: Definition and elements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 2.2 Examples of GSPs and other similar mobility and skill partnerships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 2.3 The three defining features of GSPs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Spotlight 3: GSPs and the vocational training and labor market policy agenda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 iii iv G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N 3: Designing GSPs for scalability and success 83 3.1 Training design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85 3.2 Skills recognition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 3.3 Assessing the feasibility of legal pathways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 3.4 Working with the private sector and other key stakeholders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 3.5 Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 3.6 Monitoring and evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111 Spotlight 4: The role of multilateral development institutions in GSP development . . . . . . . . . . . 116 4: Conclusion 121 Appendix: Calculation of 2050 worker needs projections 125 References 129 Boxes 1.1 How will automation and remote work affect demand for migrant workers? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 1.2 Meeting skill needs for the global green transition: A role for migration? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 1.3 The global increase in visa pathways for skilled workers and shortage occupations . . . . . . . . . . . 41 2.1 Some skill mobility and training programs and terms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 2.2 APTC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 2.3 PALIM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 2.4 THAMM-Enabel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 2.5 PAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 2.6 Germany’s GSP in nursing with the Philippines and Mexico . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 2.7 Football academies in Africa: A prime example of foreign private investment in talent development for domestic and global markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 2.8 YES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 2.9 Examples of skill systems’ development through partnerships with international subsidiaries . . . . 73 2.10 The World Bank’s Accessing Overseas Employment Opportunities for Moroccan Youth Project: A stepping stone to a GSP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 3.1 Leveraging skill standardization by international medical schools for training and mobilizing health workers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 C ontents v 3.2 Including refugees in GSPs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 3.3 Types of mutual recognition agreements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 3.4 Skills recognition in the maritime sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 3.5 The Digital Explorers program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Figures O.1 The ratio of working-age to elderly persons is decreasing significantly faster in HICs and UMICs . . 4 O.2 The labor force needed to maintain an inverse dependency ratio of 2.5 in HICs and UMICs cannot be met by expanding participation rates of women and elderly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 O.3 Secondary and tertiary enrollment is diverging across country income groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 O.4 GSPs increase human capital and skills in both origin and destination countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 O.5 There are four core principles of successful Global Skill Partnerships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 1.1 The labor force needed to maintain an inverse dependency ratio of 2.5 in HICs and UMICs cannot be met by expanding participation rates of women and elderly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 1.2 Age profiles of UMICs are converging with those of HICs, while LMICs and LICs still maintain traditional age pyramids . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 1.3 Fertility rates are already below replacement rates in many traditional migrant-sending countries, and will stay well above replacement rates in several African countries over the next five decades . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 1.4 Populations will decline in UMICs and grow in LICs and LMICs, and the population of Sub-Saharan Africa will more than double in the next 50 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 1.5 Over the next 25 years, the largest growth in the working-age populations will occur in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 1.6 The ratio of working-age to elderly persons is decreasing significantly faster in HICs and UMICs . 23 1.7 Within migration corridors, the largest gap in the pace of aging is between Africa and Europe . . 24 1.8 Large shortages of secondary- and tertiary-educated workers are expected in both high- income countries and traditional migrant-sending middle-income countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 1.9 A combination of policies, including increasing migration, is needed to help meet the growing demand for educated workers in HICs and UMICs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 1.10 LICs and LMICs will experience large expansions in labor force per elder by 2050, but many labor force participants will have only primary schooling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 1.11 Occupations in the European Union with the highest expected demand shortages include many low-, middle-, and high-skill occupations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 1.12 Many EU jobs facing expected shortages are in female-dominated occupations . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 1.13 Education composition has improved dramatically, but with large differences across country income groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 1.14 While primary school enrollment rates are converging, secondary and tertiary enrollment rates are diverging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 vi G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N 1.15 Female secondary and tertiary enrollment has increased alongside male enrollment in all income groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 1.16 Youth unemployment has steadily increased in LICs and MICs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 1.17 A large share of educated workers in low- and lower-middle-income countries remain unemployed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 1.18 Secondary enrollment in vocational training is lower in low- and lower-middle-income countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 1.19 Increasing migration from MICs to HICs has shaped global trends over the last three decades . 38 1.20 Migrants typically move one level up the income ladder (global migration in 2020) . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 1.21 The share of migrants with tertiary education has increased . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 1.22 Immigrants and emigrants have higher rates of tertiary education than native populations . . . . 40 1.23 Many high-skilled emigrants in the United States obtained their degrees there . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 2.1 GSPs increase human capital and skills in both origin and destination countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 2.2 There are three defining features of Global Skill Partnerships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 2.3 GSPs reduce concerns around brain drain in origin countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 2.4 Government expenditure on education in LICs and LMICs is already high as a share of gross domestic product . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 2.5 Migrants have similar wage profiles with nationals only when they have documented status . . . 75 3.1 There are various possible selection criteria for GSP participants . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 3.2 GSPs may be less attractive for origin countries as entry skill requirements increase, which is often the case for higher-skill sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92 3.3 How PAM developed its skills recognition system in Viet Nam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 3.4 Legal pathways for GSPs must meet three mandatory requirements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 3.5 High-skill sectors generally offer longer-term pathways . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 3.6 Key stakeholders in PALIM include government agencies, employers, industry associations, and training providers in both Belgium and Morocco . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 3.7 Cost per trainee vary by sector and program design but are broadly comparable across PALIM, APTC, and PAM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110 3.8 M&E serves a key function throughout all stages of implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 4.1 There are four core principles of successful Global Skill Partnerships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Tables O.1 Examples of GSPs across regions and sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.1 Examples of Global Skill Partnerships . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 2.2 Alternative skills training and mobility models for mid- and high-skill sectors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 3.1 Cost components as a shared responsibility across the actors that benefit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 3.2 Outcomes to measure across stages of GSP implementation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113 Foreword I n an era defined by rapid globalization, growth. Additionally, GSPs enable employers to technological advancements, shifting demo- access a more diverse talent pool while reducing graphics, fragility, and climate change, the the time and cost associated with traditional need for innovative ways to address emerging recruitment and training. global labor market challenges—across low-, middle-, and high-income countries—has For origin countries, the advantages are equally never been more pressing. Global Skill Part- compelling. By providing training opportunities nerships (GSPs) offer a transformative solution locally in sectors that face global labor shortages, to cross-border labor mobility to meet some of GSPs equip individuals with skills that enhance these challenges, aligning the interests of both their employability both at home and abroad. This origin and destination countries while prioritizing not only contributes to domestic workforce devel- human capital development. By bridging skill gaps, opment but also fosters economic resilience by fostering investment in human capital, facilitating increasing productivity and optimizing develop- systematic labor intermediation to meet industry ment impact from remittance flows for countries of demands, promoting economic development, origin. Importantly, the “brain drain” phenomenon, and alleviating unemployment pressures, GSPs often associated with migration, is mitigated by present a unique opportunity to reimagine inter- ensuring that a portion of the trained workforce national labor mobility as a mutually beneficial remains in the origin country, creating a virtuous endeavor across countries. However, realizing cycle of growth and development. Furthermore, the full potential of GSPs requires navigating a ensuring incentives for workers to invest in their complex landscape of evidence-based policy origin countries and return with enhanced human design, program implementation, and stakeholder capital deepens this virtuous cycle. coordination. From a policy perspective, the structure of GSPs The benefits of GSPs are multifaceted, touching underscores the importance of cross-country on economic, social, and political dimensions. partnership and collaboration. Unlike traditional For destination countries, GSPs provide a pool migration frameworks that often pit the interests of workers equipped with the skills, credentials, of sending and receiving countries against each and licenses to meet labor market demands at a other, and hence lead to political polarization and time of aging and demographic decline. In sectors conflict, GSPs advocate for shared responsibility facing global acute shortages, such as health to invest in a global pool of talent. They require a care, technology, and construction, this approach nuanced understanding of labor market dynamics helps alleviate bottlenecks that hinder economic and careful planning to align training programs vii viii G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N with the specific needs of both origin and desti- migrants and employers to have confidence in the nation countries. This interdependence fosters labor migration process. Transparent monitoring trust, enhances diplomatic relations, and paves and evaluation systems are also critical to assess the way for more equitable and sustainable migra- the long-term impact of GSPs on both origin and tion pathways. destination countries. Despite these clear advantages, implementing GSPs have the potential to alleviate many of the GSPs is fraught with challenges. One of the most political economy concerns. As we move forward, significant hurdles is securing the necessary the success of GSPs will depend on the collec- funding and resources to establish, scale up, tive commitment of policy makers, educators, and and sustain training programs in origin countries. employers to overcome these challenges and to Governments, private sector stakeholders, and seize the opportunities they present. By fostering international organizations must collaborate to cooperation, investing in human capital, and prior- create innovative financing mechanisms, such as itizing shared gains, GSPs have the potential to blended finance models or public-private partner- reshape global migration systems for the better. ships. While development partners or governments can finance the initial setup costs, the long-term This report delves into the design features and scalability of GSPs requires substantial financial policy intricacies of GSPs, offering valuable contributions from destination countries, particu- insights and actionable recommendations for all larly from employers. stakeholders—migrants, employers, governments, development institutions, and civil society— Another critical challenge is ensuring that GSPs seeking to harness the potential of this innovative are designed to address the labor market needs of model. It is a timely and essential contribution both origin and destination countries. This includes to the global dialogue on labor mobility and a the careful selection of skills and occupations for call to action for all those dedicated to building training and migration, the recognition of skills, a more inclusive and equitable world. It is our and the availability of suitable social protection hope that this report serves as an invitation to schemes and portability of social security bene- envision a future where mutually beneficial and fits. Additionally, inclusivity and equity must be well-managed migration is not a divisive issue but central to their design. Policy makers should prior- a unifying force for a better world. itize accessibility, particularly for marginalized and underrepresented groups, to ensure that GSPs fulfill their potential as instruments of social and economic mobility. Iffath Sharif Regulatory alignment, interinstitutional coordi- Global Director nation and governance, and systems building Social Protection also present significant obstacles. A key issue is World Bank ensuring that migrants have access to appropriate legal visa and employment pathways. Predict- ability and timely migration are essential for both Acknowledgments T his Global Skill Partnerships for Migration n Corvus Health (Kate Tulenko) report was prepared by a World Bank n Enabel (Ludiwien Cooreman, Zaynab Naji, and team led by Pablo Acosta and Çağlar Alessandra Varesco) Özden. The core author team comprised Jeremy n GIZ (Björn Gruber and Boris Scharlowski) Lebow, Limon Rodriguez, and Evelina Dahlgren. n International Organization for Migration (Tanja Daisy Demirag and Antonio Fuca contributed to Dedovic, Fabio Jiménez, Anna Charis Pienaar, the spotlights on technical vocational training and Elizabeth Warn) and migration of education workers, respectively. n Labor Mobility Partnership (Lant Pritchett and Overall guidance was provided by Iffath Sharif, Loli Rebekah Smith) Arribas-Banos, and Jamele Rigolini. Intellectual n Magsaysay Group of Companies (Doris Ho, Robin contributions of Michael Clemens and Lant Pritchett Mariano, Patrick Maxwell, and Marlon Rono) to the literature on migration policy shaped many of n Medforth Global Healthcare Education (Peter the arguments in this report. Peer reviewers were Laudiciana and Andy Sussman) Michael Clemens, Ndiame Diop, Manjula Luthria, n Migration Policy Institute (Diego Chaves, Kate Jaime Saavedra, Erwin Tiongson, and Raffaella Hooper, and Andrew Selee) Greco Tonegutti. The report was sponsored by the n Moroccan National Agency for Promotion of Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Employment and Skills (Salima Bensalem) Development (KNOMAD) Trust Fund, with financial n Organisation for Economic Co-operation and support from the European Commission, the Swiss Development (Jason Gagnon) Agency for Development and Cooperation, and the n West African Football Academy (Jan Gösgens) German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ). The report has also benefited from extensive The team conducted a series of consultations with consultations with World Bank colleagues working development practitioners, government agencies, on migration, labor intermediation, and skills devel- private sector actors, academics, and think tanks. opment across many countries. These include The team thanks the following for sharing their Samik Adhikari, Syud Amer Ahmed, Laurent Loic experiences and insights: Yves Bossavie, Gustavo Demarco, Matthew Dornan, Aylin Isik-Dikmelik, Pascal Jaupart, n African Sports & Creative Institute (Will Mbiakop) Johannes Koettl, Olga Lucia Romero Londono, n Australia Pacific Training Coalition (Nicki Baird) Mattia Makovec, Rada Naji, Luz Stella Rodriguez, n Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Maheshwor Shrestha, Diana Sverdlin, Jeffery Trade (Monica Kovats and Leshan Wijesiri) Tanner, Mauro Testaverde, Pooja Yerramilli, and n Center for Global Development (Helen Demp- Soonhwa Yi, among others, including members of ster and Sam Huckstep) the World Bank Migration Community of Practice. ix Authors PA B LO AC O STA is currently a Lead Economist His research explores the nexus of globalization at the Social Protection and Jobs Global Unit of of product and labor markets, government poli- the World Bank, leading the migration agenda. cies, and economic development. He has edited Pablo has a PhD in economics from the University three books and published numerous papers in of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (United States) and leading academic journals such as the American a Master of Economics from the National University Economic Review and the Economic Journal. He of La Plata (Argentina). Prior to joining the World is also the lead author of the 2018 flagship report Bank, Pablo worked at the Development Bank Moving for Prosperity: Global Migration and Labor of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF), the Markets. His current research projects explore Inter-American Development Bank, the Ministry the determinants and patterns of global labor of Economy of Argentina, and the Foundation mobility; impacts of migrants on destination labor for Latin American Economic Research. His main market outcomes; medical brain drain; and link- areas of expertise are social protection, labor ages between migration, trade, and foreign direct policy, migration, and skills development. Pablo investment flows. has several academic publications, including in the Journal of International Economics, Labour J E R E M Y L E B OW is an Economist at the Social Economics, Economic Development and Cultural Protection and Jobs Global Unit of the World Bank, Change, and World Development, among others; working primarily on the topics of labor, migra- as well as books and chapters in various World tion, and skills development. Prior to this, he was Bank publications. Pablo is also a research fellow a Young Professional in the Poverty and Equity at the Institute of Labor Economics (IZA). Practice for East Africa. Jeremy has a PhD in economics from Duke University. He has published ÇAĞ L A R ÖZ D E N is a Lead Economist in the papers in various academic journals including Development Research Group of the World Bank the Journal of Development Economics and the and co-director of the 2023 World Development Journal of Public Economics, in particular on the Report, Migrants, Refugees, and Societies. A economic and social effects of mass migration. Turkish national and a professional migrant, Çağlar received his undergraduate degrees in economics L I M O N R O D R I G U E Z is a Consultant at the and industrial engineering from Cornell University Social Protection and Jobs Global Unit of the and a PhD in economics from Stanford Univer- World Bank. He obtained double master’s degrees sity. He is a fellow of Institute of Labor Economics in public policy and public administration with a (IZA), the Centre for Research and Analysis of concentration in economic development policy Migration, and the Economic Research Forum. from Columbia University School of International x A u thors xi and Public Affairs and the National University of E V E L I N A DA H LG R E N is a Consultant at the Singapore Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. Social Protection and Jobs Global Unit of the He earned his doctorate in international affairs World Bank, focusing on the migration agenda. Her with a specialization in development economics work and research center on international migra- from Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced tion, labor and skills, climate, and governance in International Studies. Prior to joining the World Africa and fragility, conflict, and violence regions. Bank, Limon worked in New York at the United Prior to joining the World Bank, Evelina worked on Nations Development Programme, UN Women, these agendas at the International Organization and the UN Department of Economic and Social for Migration, the Swedish Institute of International Affairs; the UN Economic and Social Commis- Affairs, the United Nations High Commissioner for sion for Asia and the Pacific Trade Policy Section; Refugees, and WEConnect International. She the Asian Development Bank Economics and received her master’s degree in foreign service Research Department; and at Accenture. He has from Georgetown University. several publications on migration, gender, digital technology and innovation, fragility, and educa- tion. Glossary of terms Australia Pacific Training Coalition (APTC). skilled workers yields positive outcomes like Australia’s flagship technical and vocational brain circulation and motivates others to invest education and training program in the Pacific and in their skills. Additionally, brain gain happens a Global Skill Partnership established to enhance when migrants return to their home communities, labor supply and skill-job alignment across Pacific bringing back new knowledge and skills gained Island countries and Timor-Leste while promoting abroad. greater labor mobility with Australia. Its goal is to facilitate improved job prospects for students Brain waste. In the context of migration, migrant while acknowledging the significance of access to workers may experience underemployment or international labor markets for sustainable regional unemployment when they cannot secure jobs that development. match their skill level, often due to factors such as inadequate recognition of their skills, informal Bilateral labor agreement. Formal accord employment arrangements, or discriminatory between two nations that delineates terms and practices. conditions governing the recruitment, employ- ment, and rights of workers moving across their Destination country/society. The country or respective borders. society to which a migrant moves. Brain drain. The harmful effects of reduced Economic migrant. A migrant who crosses an economic activity or service provision that result international border motivated not by persecution from the emigration of skilled workers from their or possible serious harm or death, but for other country of origin to another country, or within a reasons, such as to improve living conditions by country (internal migration). Brain drain results working or reuniting with family abroad. This term from skilled emigration only when the net effect on encompasses labor migrants or migrant workers, the country of origin is negative. Brain drain may who move primarily to work in another country. occur in the short term when a person emigrates, but not in the long term if that person returns with Emigrant. A person who leaves his or her country human capital acquired abroad. of habitual residence to reside in another country. This term is used from the perspective of the Brain gain. From the viewpoint of the country person’s country of origin. receiving immigrants, skilled workers entering contribute to acquiring human capital. Conversely, for the country of origin, the migration of highly xii G lossar y of terms xiii European Union Talent Pool. A program that create job opportunities for young Moroccans and matches European Union (EU)–based employers facilitate qualified work experience in both coun- with jobseekers in non-EU (or “third”) countries. tries through a mutually beneficial partnership. Host country/society. The country or society Seasonal worker. Migrant worker whose work by to which a refugee moves, either temporarily or its character is dependent on seasonal conditions permanently. and is performed only during part of the year. Global Skill Partnership (GSP). Links human Skills Mobility Partnership. Describes bilat- capital expansion and training with international eral or multilateral cooperation agreements or mobility in a way that is financially sustainable and arrangements between states that promote skills mutually beneficial for both the origin and desti- development and skills-based mobility for the nation countries. Training occurs primarily in the benefit of all stakeholders involved. They vary in origin country and includes people who will stay terms of form, modality, and level of stakeholder home as well as those who plan to immigrate. involvement, but all focus on skills development. Immigrant. A person who moves to a country to Towards a Holistic Approach to Labour Migra- establish habitual residence. This term is used tion Governance and Labour Mobility in North from the perspective of the person’s destination Africa (THAMM). A program funded by the Euro- country. pean Union and the German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). THAMM, Origin country/society. The country or society and its follow-up program THAMM Plus, links from which a migrant or refugee moves. various North African countries (the Arab Republic of Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia) and European coun- Partnership Approaches for Development-Ori- tries (Belgium, France, Germany, Italy) for mutually ented Vocational Training and Labour Migration beneficial legal migration and job placement. (PAM). A global program funded by the German Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Develop- Triple Win Programme. A program from the ment (BMZ) to pilot vocational training and labor German employment agency and GIZ that select migration in Ecuador, Jordan, Nigeria, and Viet nurses in countries of origin (Bosnia and Herze- Nam. govina, Indonesia, India, Jordan, Philippines, and Tunisia) and provide them with preparatory Project Addressing Labour Shortages Through language and professional courses to prepare Innovative Labour Migration (PALIM). A labor them for migration, skills recognition, and integra- mobility initiative utilizing the GSP model. It tion in Germany. enhanced the professional skills of Moroccan graduates for the information and communication technology sector aligning with labor demands in Belgium and Morocco. This initiative aimed to Abbreviations ANAPEC National Agency for Promotion of M&E monitoring and evaluation Employment and Skills (Agence MDB multilateral development bank Nationale de Promotion de l’Emploi et des Compétences) MIC middle-income country APTC Australia Pacific Training Coalition MRA mutual recognition agreement CARICOM Caribbean Community OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Cedefop European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training  PALIM Project Addressing Labour Shortages Through Innovative DFAT Department of Foreign Affairs and Labour Migration Trade PAM Partnership Approaches for EDB Economic Development Board Development-Oriented Vocational EU European Union Training and Labour Migration FY fiscal year PV photovoltaic GDP gross domestic product STCW Standards of Training, Certification GIZ German Agency for International and Watchkeeping for Seafarers Cooperation (Deutsche STEM science, technology, engineering, Gesellschaft für Internationale and mathematics Zusammenarbeit) TESDA Technical Education and Skills GSP Global Skill Partnership Development Authority HIC high-income country THAMM Towards a Holistic Approach to ICT information and communication Labour Migration Governance and technology Labour Mobility in North Africa ILO International Labour Organization UMIC upper-middle-income country IMO International Maritime Organization UN United Nations IT information technology UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization LaMP Labor Mobility Partnership WAFA West African Football Academy LFP labor force participation WHO World Health Organization LIC low-income country YES Youth, Employment, and Skills in LMIC lower-middle-income country Kosovo All dollar amounts are US dollars unless otherwise indicated. xiv Overview M obility is essential to human exis- migrant and the needs of the destination country tence and progress. Some people and, hence, for increasing the overall benefits of move internally within the borders of migration. Precisely for this reason, many desti- their country. Some move across borders to other nation countries implement migration policies that countries. While most migrants move in hopes of explicitly favor higher-skilled migrants and give better economic opportunities for themselves and them preferential treatment. their children, some are displaced by conflict and violence, and others escape the consequences of Effective migration policies in both origin climate change or natural disasters. Often, it is a and destination countries are instrumental combination of reasons. Regardless of the under- to address imbalances in international labor lying causes, most migration experiences greatly markets and lead to better outcomes for improve the lives of both the migrants them- all. Even when migrants have skills that are in selves and their communities—at home and at high demand and face relatively few immigra- their destination. But migration also entails signif- tion restrictions, governments of destination and icant risks, costs, and challenges. The task faced origin countries need to implement additional poli- by governments and development partners is to cies to further increase the gains from migration. identify the right policies and interventions to help These policies include the implementation and maximize and more evenly distribute gains while enforcement of formal migration channels and visa reducing the costs, especially for those who are categories that are appropriate for each sector most affected. and occupation. Whether they are in low-skilled occupations in agriculture or higher-skilled occu- The gains from migration crucially depend on pations in medicine and engineering, employment addressing failures arising from labor market systems need to recognize credentials and legal mismatches and information asymmetries. The rights, including social protection. Origin coun- World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refu- tries need to prepare prospective migrants before gees, and Societies proposed a framework that departure with appropriate training, protect them would help governments of origin and destination while they are abroad, and help with reintegra- countries design effective policies to maximize the tion upon their return. Their financial contributions, gains from migration and manage the risks (World via remittances, and knowledge transfers need Bank 2023). More specifically, this Match and to be protected, and their continuous engage- Motive Framework identified the level of human ment with their origin communities needs to be capital of a migrant as the most critical indi- encouraged. Finally, origin and destination coun- vidual characteristic for a better match between tries need to engage in continuous and productive 1 2 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N dialogues bilaterally, regionally, and through multi- informal employment, and brain waste. Even if lateral forums to enable the collaborative design emigration were to be stopped completely, the and implementation of effective programs. scale of skill shortages in origin countries would remain severe. This is especially the case in many Many low- and middle-income origin countries, low- and middle-income countries with many however, have deep concerns about “brain younger and underemployed workers who lack drain” and other negative economic and social the skills demanded in labor markets. Substan- consequences of migration. Emigration pres- tial investment in higher or technical education ents opportunities for migrants as well as for their and skills training systems are needed to solve families. It benefits the origin economy through these problems and help young workers acquire various channels, such as increased remittances, the skills needed to meet evolving global demand, improved international business networks, and both at home and abroad. technology transfers. However, the departure of highly skilled individuals can impede development Global Skill Partnerships (GSPs) are promising progress, fiscal balances, and delivery of critical policy tools to address the joint challenges services such as health care and education. As of financing constraints in training and skills a result, certain vulnerable sectors and communi- development in origin countries and skilled ties may be severely harmed. Brain drain becomes labor shortages in destination countries. an especially sensitive topic when the educa- GSPs provide win-win solutions to address global tion of the highly skilled emigrants is financed by skill shortages by expanding collaboration and the limited resources of a poorer country that is innovation in skills training and formal migration already suffering from human capital shortages management (Clemens 2015; Clemens, Demp- (World Bank 2023). Regardless of the extent and ster, and Gough 2019). In a GSP scheme, origin type of the impact, brain drain tops the list of the countries receive foreign expertise and financing major challenges that need to be resolved via to expand domestic training capacity, thus innovative migration policies. reducing brain drain concerns. Destination coun- tries receive skilled migrants with the credentials Some policy makers, consequently, suggest and licenses required by their regulations. In this restrictive emigration policies to address skill way, GSPs align migration policies and the inter- shortages in low- and middle-income coun- ests of higher-income destination countries with tries; instead, the right approach is to increase the development goals of origin countries. They investment in skills training systems. Among can help governments and policy makers navi- the policies advocated to prevent brain drain are gate the complexities of migration systems while restrictions by destination countries to recognize promoting economic growth in origin countries. migrants’ skills and qualifications or restricting international recruitment of skilled migrant workers GSPs are bilateral or multilateral agreements by employers in sensitive sectors such as health on training and migration between origin care. While these policies disincentivize emigration and destination countries. In a GSP, firms and as well as employment of migrants by destina- governments of the destination country finance tion country firms, they do not reduce emigration most of the training, which primarily takes place in entirely. On the contrary, such restrictions on legal the origin country. As their most important feature, migration may lead to even worse outcomes GSPs have a dual-track approach and include through increased undocumented migration, trainees who will stay home as well as those who O v er v ie w 3 plan to emigrate. As a result, the supply of skilled in the origin country, which further increases the workers in the origin country also increases with long-term availability of skilled workers. the training of nonmigrants, leading to brain gain, instead of brain drain. The origin and destina- Despite all their positive attributes, GSPs tion countries jointly decide on and implement are not a panacea for all migration-related the main features of a GSP, such as the choice of challenges, but they should be an integral the sector and skill content of training to address component of a collection of effective global skill shortages in both economies. Migration must policies. Origin and destination countries need to occur through legal pathways and appropriate engage in continuous and productive dialogue so visa categories. This reduces undocumented they can design and implement bilateral agree- migration, secures safe and orderly migration, and ments to address a myriad of challenges and allows migrant workers to realize their potential create mutually beneficial development outcomes. productivity with full recognition of their creden- As part of every migration program—not just tials and qualifications. The goal is to ensure that GSPs—destination countries need to imple- origin countries can share the economic gains ment formal migration channels and encourage from training and mobility, that destination coun- economic and social integration. Origin countries tries benefit from inflows of skilled workers, and need to prepare, protect, and engage with their that the system is scalable and financially sustain- migrants before they leave, while they are abroad, able. and when they return. GSPs are effective only if they complement other programs and are part GSPs can help maximize the development of a larger and effective migration management gains in origin countries and reduce the poten- agenda. tial social costs of migration in destination countries amid the emerging global competi- This report reviews the state of knowl- tion for skilled workers. Unprecedented aging edge of GSPs, considers terminology and trends in high-income countries (HICs) and many approaches, provides a roadmap for policy upper-middle-income countries (UMICs), and makers who want to implement GSPs, and the resulting labor market shortages are fueling clarifies the role of multilateral development competition for skilled migrant workers. GSPs help institutions in this pivotal agenda. Various GSP realize the gains from global labor market mobility and GSP-like programs and pilots have already by establishing formal entry pathways for workers been implemented globally, financed through with appropriate skill levels. Otherwise, undocu- various sources. The report reviews the essential mented migration will increase to fill market voids, features of GSPs, existing examples, their major which in turn will reduce gains from migration for advantages in different settings, and the specific everyone and increase political polarization and features of GSP design. Before highlighting these cultural animosity toward migrants in destination features, the report discusses the current global countries. GSPs can generate further gains for the economic landscape, focusing on demographic origin countries through knowledge and finan- and education trends and why they call for global cial transfers from the emigration of high-skilled partnerships to invest in education and training workers with formal jobs and legal protection. for workers to participate in domestic and inter- GSPs can also contribute to the improvement of national markets. the quality and capacity of training institutions 4 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N rapidly over the past several decades in many Why more global labor of these countries—much faster than in the HICs when they were at similar levels of income and mobility is necessary development. Figure O.1 shows the ratio of the working-age population (ages 15–64) to the The world is at a demographic inflection point. elderly population (age 65 and above) for coun- Low-income countries (LICs) are seeing a rapid tries at different income levels. This commonly used expansion of young populations in need of educa- inverse dependency ratio has already converged tion and jobs. These countries, where fertility rates between HICs and UMICs, whereas it is still signifi- are declining but still above replacement, face cantly higher (but also steadily declining) in LICs the dual challenges of educating young people and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs). and helping them find proper jobs. Limited finan- cial resources and lower economic growth rates These diverging demographic trends create constrain both human capital expansion and labor an opportunity for “demographic arbi- market development. Such challenges are well trage”—migration from countries with younger documented and at the heart of current devel- populations and a growing need for education opment debates. Emigration will need to be a part and jobs to countries with aging populations of these countries’ overall development programs and shrinking labor forces. This opportunity is to reduce poverty and enable their young popu- clear in figure O.2, which presents the number lations to find good jobs. of labor force participants (in millions) needed to maintain a ratio of 2.5 labor force participants over HICs are experiencing unprecedented rapid age 25 per elderly person (age 65 and above) by aging and, in many cases, shrinking of their the year 2050 at current labor force participation labor forces. The aging of HICs’ populations is due rates. This is approximately the current inverse to declining fertility rates and increasing life expec- tancy. For example, fertility rates have declined to 0.75 in the Republic of Korea, 1.25 in Italy, and F I G U R E O . 1   The ratio of working-age 1.30 in Japan. Many of these HICs are already to elderly persons is decreasing significantly faster in HICs and UMICs starting to see their labor forces contract and will soon start to experience population declines 18 LI (Pritchett 2024). These phenomena have been well 16 documented and discussed in policy circles, yet 14 LMI no silver bullet exists to solve their dire implica- 12 tions for labor markets, public finance, and service 10 Ratio UMI delivery for the elderly. For these HICs, immigration 8 policies need to be a key component of the policy 6 HI portfolio—essential in addressing the challenges 4 2 of aging and labor force shrinkage, regardless of 0 whether this is seen as politically acceptable. 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 Source: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations Popu- What is catching many policy makers and lation Division medium variant projections (2022) (accessed March 28, 2024). experts by surprise are the demographic Note: HIC = high-income country; LIC = low-income country; trends in UMICs. Fertility rates started to decline LMIC = lower-middle-income country; UMIC = upper-middle-in- come country. O v er v ie w 5 F I G U R E O . 2   The labor force needed to maintain an inverse dependency ratio of 2.5 in HICs and UMICs cannot be met by expanding participation rates of women and elderly a. Country income groups b. High-income countries Labor force surplus Labor force shortage Australia anada HI s Saudi Arabia UK Poland UMI s Fran e Spain LMI s Korea, Rep. Germany Italy LI s US Japan −400 −300 −200 −100 0 100 200 300 400 0 10 20 30 40 50 Millions of people Millions of people In rease female LFP In rease elderly LFP In rease migration Remaining labor for e Labor for e surplus halfway between halfway between by 10% of pop. needed to maintain over ratio of 2.5 urrent value and 80% urrent value and 20% ages 25–64 ratio of 2.5 per elder per elder Sources: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations Population Division medium variant projections and labor force participation (LFP) rates from International Labour Organization. Note: HIC = high-income country; UMIC = upper-middle-income country; LMIC = lower-middle-income country; LIC = lower-income country. The figure shows the number of labor force participants over age 25 needed to maintain a ratio of at least 2.5 per person age 65 and above (approximately the current ratio observed in the US, Canada, and the UK) by 2050, assuming constant LFP. See appendix for calculation details. dependency ratio observed in many HICs, including the United States. Many economists argue that this ratio is already too low to sustain social protection Developing countries systems and labor market needs, but it is used here have a surplus of to illustrate some key trends. The figure presents workers, but many the impact of a reasonably large increase in female and elderly labor force participation—the two poli- lack the skills needed cies frequently cited by experts as solutions to the for labor migration aging dilemma (see chapter 1 and the appendix for further discussion and calculation details). The Mere migration of workers from LICs to HICs figure clearly shows that HICs and UMICs would will not solve the problems in either set of need hundreds of millions of new workers even countries without investment in skills. As the if the female or elderly labor force participation 2023 World Development Report argued, HICs rates expand and with an increase in migration and UMICs need migrants with the appropriate equivalent to 10 percent of the working-age popu- skills and human capital. Only then will the match lation. On the other hand, LICs and LMICs have be high, and total gains for migrants and their sufficiently large labor forces to maintain these origin and destination communities be maximized. dependency ratios going into 2050. Without investment in skills, distressed migration 6 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N will dominate, triggering undocumented migration, next generation. In fact, many of these MICs will social and economic exclusion, deportations, and soon need to attract migrant workers themselves. increased antimigrant sentiments. Migration over the next two decades will need Economic migration trends since World War II to come from LICs and LMICs. The challenge is have one dominant feature: the movement that these potential migrants lack the skills that the of migrants from middle-income countries HIC and UMIC labor markets demand. Figure O.3 (MICs) to HICs. Most of these migrants had presents the secondary and tertiary school enroll- the skills and education needed in the destina- ment rates across countries at different income tion countries, where they found better economic levels. The gaps are clear. While enrollment rates and professional opportunities. Almost half of converge between UMICs and HICs, LMICs and those who migrated to high-income Organisa- especially LICs lag significantly. The gap is espe- tion for Economic Co-operation and Development cially large in tertiary education. In short, future (OECD) countries have already become natural- migrants lack the skills they require to succeed in ized citizens, indicating the success of their social global labor markets. and economic inclusion and integration. Prom- inent examples of migration corridors include These combined demographic and educa- Mexican migration to the United States, Turkish tion trends in high-, middle-, and low-income migration to Germany, and migration from South countries imply that the migration trends Asia to the oil-rich Persian Gulf countries. Aging in of the post–World War II era are no longer UMICs, however, implies that these trends will not sustainable. While LMICs and LICs have younger continue. Many of the origin countries—Mexico, populations who need jobs and HICs and UMICs Türkiye, and India—no longer have the large have vacancies, there is a wide gap between skills number of workers that the HICs need over the and demand. The next generation of migrants will F I G U R E O . 3   Secondary and tertiary enrollment is diverging across country income groups a. Se ondary enrollment trend b. Tertiary enrollment trend 120 120 Gross enrollment (%) HI Gross enrollment (%) 100 100 80 UMIC 80 HI 60 LMI 60 UMIC 40 40 LI LMI 20 20 LI 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Original compilation based on World Development Indicators DataBank. Note: HIC = high-income country; LIC = low-income country; LMIC = lower-middle-income country; UMIC = upper-middle-income country. Country-level education enrollment rates weighted by population. O v er v ie w 7 come from LMICs and LICs, and they will have to advantage of GSPs is how they link training with possess the skills and human capital demanded international mobility in a manner that is finan- by global labor markets. This is where GSPs’ cially sustainable and mutually beneficial for both strength lies. countries. The origin country expands its human capital relative to premigration levels at a rela- tively low cost and without the potential brain drain impacts of skilled emigration. In the destination Main features of GSPs country, labor market demands are addressed by the inflow of skilled migrant workers who have the GSPs are agreements between higher-income required training and credentials. Both countries destination countries and lower-income origin benefit from a partnership that enables greater countries with training and mobility compo- coordination and access to existing recruitment nents. Destination country firms and governments and training systems. have the primary responsibility for arranging and financing training programs in origin countries and, There are three defining features of GSPs: in most cases, bear the majority of the migration costs. A portion of the students who complete 1. Training must address skill shortages in these training programs emigrate to the destina- both origin and destination economies with tion country—all through formal channels—while proper skills recognition. This means training the rest of the graduates stay at home and enter will mostly focus on skills and occupations that the labor market there (figure O.4). The unique are globally transferable and in short supply. F I G U R E O . 4   GSPs increase human capital and skills in both origin and destination countries Before GSP After GSP Existing emigration Skilled workers at destination GSP away tra k Skilled workers at origin GSP home tra k 8 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N Destination country governments and firms will governments should implement safeguards that have to design and implement programs as protect the wages of both migrants and native well as licensing and certification procedures workers and ensure safe working conditions as in collaboration with their counterparts in origin well as social and economic inclusion. countries. The main components of the training programs should ideally be the same for the At their core, GSPs are skills training and "home" and "away" tracks, although certain human capital expansion programs that additional components, including language provide solutions to skill shortages in desti- training, may be added for the away track to nation countries and financing constraints satisfy regulatory and licensing requirements and brain drain concerns in origin countries. at destination. Through a GSP program, trainees will obtain skills that are in high demand and will easily find jobs 2. Firms and governments of the destination whether they migrate or stay home. Destina- country have the primary responsibility tion countries will receive migrant workers with for financing training and migration costs. the needed skills as well as the required formal Lower-income origin countries often face severe credentials and licenses. Origin countries will constraints in financing education and training expand their share of skilled workers, especially programs. This is one of the main reasons these in sectors and occupations facing shortages. Their countries experience general human capital brain drain concerns will be alleviated. GSPs will shortages. By contrast, higher-income destina- also generate further long-term gains through tion countries have the financial resources and remittance and knowledge transfers by migrants technical expertise to establish and run training with formal jobs. programs, and they will gain from economywide spillovers as skilled emigration expands their With a few exceptions, GSPs to date have labor force. Destination countries must there- been small-scale pilots; the next generation fore take primary financial responsibility. Firms of GSPs should strive for scalability throughout in the destination country may have a particu- design and implementation. These pilots provide larly strong incentive to contribute. International valuable lessons for future programs to become organizations and development partners may scalable and sustainable. The pilots have been in also be able to contribute financially, especially various regions, including the Pacific, Southeast to cover the fixed costs in the initial stages of Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East (table O.1). programs and pilots. Lessons can also be learned from programs using 3. All migration must occur through legal path- alternative models of training and migration part- ways and appropriate visa categories, and nerships (e.g., migration agreements offering this process must be predictable and timely. training to migrants at destination), which have Legal migration and formal employment are advantages as well as drawbacks compared to necessary conditions for any bilateral partner- GSPs. Such programs have had varying levels of ship. Legal migration ensures that migration is success meeting diverse challenges related to safe and orderly, and it allows migrants and multistakeholder engagement, training design, the the origin and destination countries to realize identification of legal pathways, and cost reduc- maximum gains. These pathways must be tion. Importantly, they demonstrate the long-term predictable and timely to avoid risk of delayed engagement required to build trust among migration and brain waste. Destination country cross-border partners, including firms, training O v er v ie w 9 T A B L E O . 1   Examples of GSPs across regions and sectors Project Years Countries Sectors Current status Australia 2007— Australia, 9 Built environment, Over 20,000 full-qualification graduates since Pacific present Pacific Island community services, inception; 8% have migrated to work in Australia Training countries, engineering and since 2019 Coalition Timor-Leste electrotechnology, (APTC) hospitality and tourism, education, agriculture, business PALIM 2018–21 Belgium, Information and 120 trained; migration was stalled by COVID-19; Morocco communication tech- 20 have or are planning to migrate nology Youth, 2017–21 Germany, Construction Halted due to lack of harmonization of German Employment, Kosovo and Kosovar qualification standards; exploring and Skills potential to improve vocational training in (YES) Kosovo to train for both markets PAM 2021– Germany, Metal processing 50 people were selected, 25 of whom were to June Viet Nam be supported to migrate to Germany as skilled 2024 workers; only 12 were able to qualify for migra- tion to Germany, as most of the students did not acquire sufficient German language skills GSP in 2019– Germany, the Nursing and geriatric Training was initiated, and the first batch Nursing present Philippines care migrated in 2023 with a second batch to migrate between in 2024; expansion of a fully private sector– Germany financed GSP in the Philippines is in preparation, and the as is replication of the model in Mexico and Philippines other countries THAMM- 2020– Belgium, Construction and Originally designed as a GSP, this project now Enabel present Morocco, industrial sectors focuses on fostering cooperation between Tunisia national employment agencies, upskilling of training systems, and helping workers with job matching, interview preparation, language, health, and safety training; as of May 2024, the project enabled employment of 87 workers in Tunisia and of 23 Moroccan and Tunisian workers in Belgium Examples of private sector initiatives West African 1998– Ghana, Professional football Since 1998, the West African Football Academy Football present Europe in Ghana has trained over 1,000 players, with Academy about 20% transferring to international clubs Heimerer 2010– Kosovo, Nursing, speech Since 2010, the college has trained over 1,500 College present Germany therapy, occupational students, with about 80% pursuing work in therapy, and health Kosovo care more broadly Magsaysay 2018– Philippines, Seafarers 5,000 graduates work abroad and 1,000 work Maritime present various coun- domestically, including in Magsaysay’s own local Academy tries in East shipping company Asia, Europe, North America Note: GSP = Global Skill Partnership; PALIM = Pilot Project Addressing Labour Shortages through Innovative Labour Migration; PAM = Partnership Approaches for Development-Oriented Vocational Training and Labour Migration; THAMM = Towards a Holistic Approach to Labour Migration Governance and Labour Mobility in North Africa; YES = in Kosovo. 10 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N providers, and governments. For the next gener- ation of GSPs to succeed, they must account for these lessons and be designed with scalability in Additional features of mind from the outset. GSPs Many GSP-like models have also been imple- Design of GSPs requires close attention to several mented independently by the private sector, other critical components. These generally fall under reflecting the sound economic principles of the three topics of training, mobility, and financing. this approach. Multinational companies often choose to conduct training overseas, given that training costs are lower and potential employees Training with the needed backgrounds are available. Some foreign-owned training programs and schools GSPs are particularly appropriate for midlevel regularly train candidates for both domestic and skills in rapidly expanding occupations and international markets. This model can be seen, sectors. These skills are in high demand across for example, in many medical schools around the countries of different income levels, and they are world, or with European-owned football acade- critical in occupations in areas such as construc- mies based in Africa. With funding from Red Bull tion, medicine, and the “green transition” away Salzburg, the West African Football Academy in from fossil fuels. Further, there is a large pool of Ghana has trained players while paying for their available qualified candidates who can enroll in high school education. Many of the graduates middle-skills training programs with reasonable have joined top football clubs in Europe, while the costs and training duration. majority play on African teams or enter careers outside football after receiving their diplomas. GSPs can leverage existing education and Heimerer College in Kosovo is an example in the training systems, and they have the poten- medical field funded by diaspora investors. It trains tial to improve these systems’ quality and health care workers for employment domestically performance. Working through existing institu- and in Germany. As a final example, seafarer tions—including technical and vocational training training for the cruise and shipping industries has institutions—has the potential to lower long-run standardized international qualifications, and costs and leverage existing governance struc- training centers regularly produce graduates for tures, infrastructure, private sector linkages, and global markets. Magsaysay’s maritime engineering recruitment networks. However, concerns often academy in the Philippines is a large supplier of arise regarding the quality of existing training insti- seafarers in Asia, and their training is mostly paid tutions in less-developed countries, due to poorly for by employers from HICs. These private sector qualified teachers, outdated curricula, inadequate examples present important lessons for GSPs, and infrastructure and equipment, and inconsistent demonstrate the value of private sector engage- funding. GSPs can help strengthen such training ment to achieve scale and sustainability. institutions, raise their standards, and improve their reputation by providing sustainable financing, external technology, and teaching expertise. The Australia Pacific Training Coalition is an example of a vocational training-centered program that O v er v ie w 11 provides unique and valuable lessons for future since many sectors and occupations are rapidly GSPs. becoming part of the global economy. GSPs can also be appropriate for both low- Student selection must be carefully designed and high-skill sectors, but GSPs in high-skill considering sector requirements and the goals sectors typically require larger investments, of the GSP. In addition to educational and tech- longer-term training, and more efforts to nical backgrounds, training programs will require mitigate brain drain. Potential target occupa- work experience or nontechnical skills (e.g., tions range from relatively low-skilled agricultural language proficiency and the ability to adapt to workers to high-skilled physicians and engineers. the destination country). Other factors, such as Low-skilled workers can gain from additional socioeconomic status or demographic group, training in technical, socioemotional, digital, and might also be included. Candidates can be language skills, which can benefit their employ- assessed with formal tests and interviews. ment prospects both at home and abroad. High-skilled occupations, such as in medicine or Another critical design feature of GSPs is the engineering, instead require extensive training process for choosing the students who will over many years using more experienced trainers. enter the away track. A well-designed home There may be greater differences in skill needs track is essential to maximize a GSP’s benefits for at home and abroad, and graduates might not the origin country. Meanwhile, in practice, firms be willing to remain in the origin country after in destination countries will often want to screen training if high-skill job opportunities are more and recruit the top candidates for hire, and the attractive abroad. Further, training programs away track may therefore require more advanced for high-skilled occupations may have relatively and specialized training. GSPs thus avoid brain high entry requirements and a smaller pool of drain, since the training program increases the eligible students. GSPs in high-skill sectors can be availability of skilled workers via both tracks. highly mutually beneficial, but only if employers or In cases where the majority of graduates are governments in the destination are willing to invest being recruited into the away track, quotas can in long-term education and training programs with be considered to limit the number of graduates sufficient emphasis on quality and capacity of the who go abroad. However, if there is an excess home track. overseas demand for skilled graduates, the best solution is to expand the GSP. Regardless of sector, GSP training should include nontechnical and language skills in Employers and industry associations in desti- addition to technical skills. Beyond fundamental nation countries should ideally be involved skills (mathematics, reading, science), training in all stages of training design and imple- programs should help students develop cognitive mentation. This guarantees that jobs and legal and socioemotional skills that are demanded by pathways are available to migrants after grad- employers, such as time management, commu- uation. Program design includes selection of nication, and leadership skills that are critical for skill content and sectors, defining enrollment labor market success in both origin and destina- criteria, design of curriculum and skills recogni- tion countries. Language skills are naturally critical, tion process, design of employer matching and not only for the workers who plan to emigrate, but migration process, and financing structure. The also for many of those who plan to stay at home, private sector’s involvement guarantees long-term 12 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N sustainability and scalability of programs and They can in turn use their skills productively. financial viability. Migrants integrate better economically and socially when they have formal social, legal, GSPs must include skills recognition and and economic rights. With legal rights, they can licensing arrangements. In many HICs, migrant engage in occupations that are commensurate workers with the required skills and educa- with their skills and training, preventing brain waste. tion might still not be employed in higher-skilled They have higher earnings, productivity, and tax occupations if they did not possess the required contributions, and benefit from public services like licenses and appropriately recognized creden- education and health care and access to formal tials. Lack of licensing in almost every high-skilled financial services. Migrants with employment visas profession would lead to brain waste: a worker and legal status invest more in social and human might work in a lower-skilled job or be informally capital specific to the destination country, further employed. One of the most attractive features of increasing their economic and social contributions, GSPs is that they ease, or even guarantee, formal reducing burdens, and increasing their “match.” skills recognition by coordinating skills recognition Destination countries employ highly qualified and licensing for graduates. workers, who in turn contribute by paying taxes and not unfairly competing with domestic workers. Women and marginalized populations should Employers can better plan their human resource be given preference in GSPs. This will boost needs over the short to medium term. Finally, origin equity and social impact. Many sectors and occu- countries benefit from higher remittances, supe- pations facing shortage—in caregiving, medicine, rior knowledge transfers, and protection of their health care, and personal services—are female citizens. Documented migrants return home more dominated. GSPs are feasible in many of these easily and when they desire, maintaining stronger sectors and would create training and emigration connections with their origin communities. opportunities for women. In cases where attending training programs is difficult for women, their The visa pathway and the linked employ- participation can be increased with flexible course ment authorization must ensure migrants can times and childcare options, the recruitment of pursue employment in appropriate occupa- female trainers, and by expanding outreach activ- tions in the destination country. Establishing ities. For other marginalized populations, possible new visa categories and pathways—especially interventions include flexible course delivery and in high-income destination countries—is a signif- financial subsidies for transportation and housing. icant challenge since it requires extensive political Their increased participation will create a stronger bargaining, legal reviews, and legislative actions. and longer-term development impact for the origin That is why it is easier for GSPs to use a destina- country. tion country’s existing legal migration framework and visa pathways. The arrangements for visa and employment authorization must include timely visa Mobility issuance, fulfillment of financial and salary require- ments, and alignment of visa pathways with labor Legal migration is necessary to ensure migra- market demands, mainly for greater predictability tion is economically efficient and socially and ease for both migrants and their employers. inclusive. Legal migration and employment safe- The overall framework should also include, from guard migrants against abuse and exploitation. the outset, the visa duration, the ability to transfer O v er v ie w 13 work permits between employers, family reunifi- and place workers in firms in origin and destina- cation provisions, and access to social protection tion countries. Migration costs cover predeparture and pension systems. training, passport and visa fees, travel costs, health and security checks, and relocation The skills acquired through GSP training stipends such as housing and living expenses should align with the requirements of the after arrival. Temporary migration programs will visa pathways. In many destination countries, also include return and reintegration costs—for employment-based visas have multiple and example, the costs of additional skills recognition, demanding requirements. For example, work travel, and job search assistance when migrants permits require migrants to pass skills recogni- return to origin countries. tion tests (especially in health care sectors) or language proficiency tests. In many cases, salary Sustainable financial arrangements between requirements are implemented to prevent abuse the governments and employers in origin and and exploitation and protect native workers. It destination countries determine the success is crucial to guarantee that the migrants under of a GSP. Long-term sustainability requires each GSP programs will pass such tests and satisfy the actor to view its contributions as fair and worth- salary requirements. while in comparison to its gains. Destination country employers and governments gain from For migrants to integrate, they need access a larger pool of workers who bring economic to social protection, proper assistance, and benefits, and it is natural and expected that they family reunification provisions. Access to public contribute the largest share of resources. Firms services like health care and education, as well as and governments in low-income origin coun- to social security benefits, will not only enhance tries face more binding financial constraints and migrants’ well-being but also give them strong are unlikely to contribute significant resources. incentives to integrate economically and socially, However, there is no one-size-fits-all financing which in turn maximizes their economic and social model; an appropriate model will depend on contributions to the destination country. Also crit- the constraints on and incentives for the parties ical are the transferability of social welfare benefits involved in the process. and the portability of pension systems, especially for long-term migrants who might eventually return While a main advantage of the GSP model is home. that variable training costs are often lower in origin countries, this requires upfront expen- ditures, especially in occupations and sectors Financing that demand advanced skills and certifica- tion. In many cases, the cost per trainee will GSP programs entail various costs—training, be high during the pilot stage, but will decrease labor market intermediation, and migration— substantially over time and especially as the scale that need to be financed. Training costs include increases. This is another reason for scaling up the fixed costs of program preparation and design, GSP programs. trainer recruitment and training, the operational costs of candidate selection, and training and In the long run, GSPs are most likely to become certification delivery. Labor market intermedia- financially sustainable only after the desti- tion costs entail the costs to facilitate interviews nation country private sector is convinced 14 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N of returns on its investments and becomes the key partner. In the context of critical skilled labor shortages, destination country firms have Conclusion strong incentives to invest in the human capital In summary, GSPs can be successful as long as of their employees. In many cases, they will find it they help countries deliver on their promise of cheaper and less risky to train workers abroad, as expanding a more qualified global labor force by demonstrated by private firms that independently focusing on four core principles: human capital, establish overseas training centers. However, labor market intermediation, social protection, and investment in overseas training can often entail partnerships (figure O.5). significant risks and uncertainties, including concerns about the quality of candidates and their 1. Investing in human capital is paramount. ability to migrate quickly and smoothly. Many firms Through their focus on skill development systems, want proof that this model works before they are education, and training, GSPs empower individ- willing to invest. uals to be competitive in the global job market. GSPs can benefit from development assistance 2. Managed and systematic international labor from multilateral partners and agencies. Such market intermediation systems are needed assistance enables engaging the right stake- to facilitate cross-border economic gains. holders and covers upfront fixed costs before These systems can allow the provision of digni- proof of concept has been established. Many fied jobs to millions of people—including youth GSPs would entail significant upfront fixed costs, and women—at home and abroad, through an which employers might not be willing to fund until exchange of information regarding both labor viability and credibility are established. Inter- national institutions and development partners can play a role at this juncture and transfer the responsibility to the private sector and destina- F I G U R E O . 5   There are four core tion country governments as programs develop principles of successful Global Skill Partnerships and expand. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) must be a  part of any GSP process. M&E is essential for longevity and adaptability, to provide proof of concept to funders and partners, and to provide Partnerships Human long-term evidence of impacts. M&E is crucial capital for GSPs to transition from pilots to scaled-up programs, to provide evidence of impacts, and to  demonstrate effectiveness to funders. Early-stage M&E allows actors to observe their mistakes and correct them; adapt to changing economic, social, and technological conditions; and inform  Social Labor market protection intermediation long-term policy development. O v er v ie w 15 supply and demand needs. Building these Multilateral development institutions have systems involves supporting standardized inter- a critical role to play in the development of ventions that are replicable and scalable. GSPs. The financial infrastructure, multicountry and multisector engagement, global policy devel- 3. Migrants should have access to appro- opment, and public and private intermediation priate social protection systems. Besides of these international institutions position them being workers, people who migrate are indi- to contribute effectively to the establishment of viduals whose rights must be respected. Doing more GSPs worldwide. They also play a critical so includes ensuring access to labor and social convening role in bringing parties to negotiate protection benefits and their portability across mutually beneficial agreements, in the capacity countries. development of implementing agencies, and in 4. Constructive global dialogue and partner- disseminating good practices. ships are crucial. International cooperation and collaboration are essential components of a successful migration management strategy. Countries must come together to share expe- riences, knowledge, and best practices, in turn promoting policy coherence and harmonization at the global level. 1 At a crossroads: How labor migration systems must adapt to evolving demographic and economic trends 18 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N M igration policy is fundamentally about in key sectors and occupations are growing. the attainment and mobility of human On the other hand, low-income countries (LICs) capital across national borders. This and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) are agenda has become more economically crit- finding it difficult to provide adequate educational ical and politically contentious as the world’s and employment opportunities for their rapidly current demographic patterns evolve to include expanding young populations. The world's total never-before-seen fertility and mortality rates. population is expected to increase by 2 billion in These demographic changes are taking place the next 50 years. This growth will almost exclu- against a backdrop of swift yet geographically sively take place in LICs, especially in Sub-Saharan uneven technological innovation, educational Africa and, to a lesser extent, South Asia. In sharp expansion, and economic growth. Intensifying contrast, many HICs in Western Europe, North demand for and supply of skilled workers in both America, and East Asia will continue to experi- low- and high-income countries will only further ence aging and stable or declining populations. affect economic growth rates, labor market According to the medium variant forecast of the outcomes, and migration patterns across all coun- United Nations (UN) World Population Prospects, tries, regardless of their income level or size. between 2025 and 2050, the total population of HICs will remain relatively constant, but the share Origin and destination countries need to jointly of the population over age 65 will increase from design and implement efficient and effective 20 to 28 percent. Labor market imbalances, skill migration systems to address these intensifying shortages, and resulting migration pressures in demographic and labor market imbalances. This both origin and destination regions will continue is the clear message emerging from academic to shape policy agendas and draw political atten- research and policy debates. All countries will tion across the globe (Pritchett 2006). need to invest in safe, orderly, and regular migra- tion pathways—along with training and education HICs and UMICs will face massive shortages systems in origin countries with young populations in their labor markets by 2050 on the scale of and inclusive economic and social protection poli- 750 million missing participants, half of which cies in higher-income destination countries where are in China. These substantial gaps cannot be those young people are in high demand. closed by increasing labor force participation (LFP) among women and the elderly, as some policy makers advocate. In order to maintain a ratio of at least 2.5 labor force participants over 1.1 Demographic age 25 per elder (person age 65 or older), HICs imbalances will need to add around 320 million to their labor forces (figure 1.1). The ratio of 2.5 was selected as it is near the current ratio in the United States, The world is undergoing a significant demo- Canada, and the United Kingdom; is conserva- graphic transition, leading to labor market tively below most estimates of the ratio needed imbalances across countries at all income to sustain pension systems (Peter G. Peterson levels. Current trends are unprecedented. Fertility Foundation 2022); and could be considered the rates in high-income countries (HICs) and many minimum threshold needed to sustain adequate upper-middle-income countries (UMICs) are social welfare programs and address labor plummeting, their populations are rapidly aging, shortages (see the appendix for discussion their labor forces are shrinking, and shortages 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 19 F I G U R E 1 . 1   The labor force needed to maintain an inverse dependency ratio of 2.5 in HICs and UMICs cannot be met by expanding participation rates of women and elderly a. Country income groups b. High-income countries Labor force surplus Labor force shortage Australia anada HI s Saudi Arabia UK Poland UMI s Fran e Spain LMI s Korea, Rep. Germany Italy LI s US Japan −400 −300 −200 −100 0 100 200 300 400 0 10 20 30 40 50 Millions of people Millions of people In rease female LFP In rease elderly LFP In rease migration Remaining labor for e Labor for e surplus halfway between halfway between by 10% of pop. needed to maintain over ratio of 2.5 urrent value and 80% urrent value and 20% ages 25–64 ratio of 2.5 per elder per elder Sources: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations Population Division medium variant projections and labor force participation (LFP) rates from International Labour Organization. Note: HIC = high-income country; UMIC = upper-middle-income country; LMIC = lower-middle-income country; LIC = lower-income country. The figure shows the number of labor force participants over age 25 needed to maintain a ratio of at least 2.5 per person age 65 and above (approximately the current ratio observed in the US, Canada, and the UK) by 2050, assuming constant LFP. See appendix for calculation details. and calculation details).1 The second important Another important and relatively surprising message of this figure is that frequently cited and shift is the aging and declining fertility trends advocated policy interventions will not be enough in UMICs. The demographic trends in UMICs are to address the demographic imbalances in HICs. rapidly converging to those of HICs, such that they For instance, as shown in figure 1.1, an increase in will need to add around 450 million labor force the LFP of women or the population above age 65 participants to maintain a ratio of 2.5 per elder. will only close around 25 percent of the imbalance China dominates this group due to its large popu- in HICs. Even increased migration equivalent to lation and unique demographic trends, and it will 10 percent of the working-age population will not need to add 380 million people to its labor force close the labor gap. by 2050. Increased LFP among the female and elderly populations, combined with increased migration, will only cover 30 percent of this gap 1   See the appendix for the details of the framework used in China. In contrast, these three policy interven- to calculate labor force shortages and the impacts of expanding the labor market participation of women and tions are expected to address the demographic the elderly as well as labor migration. The ratio of 2.5 gap in most of the other UMICs (see figure 1.9 and labor force participants was chosen because it may its elucidation later in this chapter). represent a reasonable lower-bound target in many HICs. However, the true ratio needed to sustain social welfare programs and address labor shortages is highly contextual and will vary across countries. 20 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N Labor demand originating in HICs and UMICs Türkiye, are exhibiting similar patterns. Meanwhile, can be met with the young populations in most LICs and LMICs still have predominantly LICs and LMICs, but they will need signifi- young populations. LMICs are not expected to see cant investments in education. Even though trends like those of UMICs until 2075, as fertility fertility rates continue to decline rapidly in LICs rates decline toward replacement. and LMICs, their total populations are still young, and aging remains a distant prospect. There are These global demographic trends are shaped enough young people in their labor forces to main- by declining fertility rates and expanding life tain economically sustainable dependency ratios expectancies in HICs and UMICs, and declining for the next two generations. In 2050, LICs will but still relatively high fertility rates in LICs and have over 600 million labor force participants LMICs (figure 1.3). Countries at all income levels over age 25, which is over 300 million more than are experiencing declining fertility rates. Today, the number needed to maintain the ratio of 2.5 the global average fertility rate is 2.3 children per elder (figure 1.1). In LMICs, in 2050 there will per woman, a significant decline from the rate of be 2.5 billion labor force participants over age slightly over 5 in the 1950s (Roser 2024). However, 25, almost half of whom are in India. Like LICs, the pace of the decline varies widely, leading to a LMICs can also reduce their labor force by around divergence of demographic trends across coun- 300 million before falling below the ratio of 2.5 tries. Declining fertility rates and increases in life labor force participants per elderly person over expectancy generate the well-known and identified age 65. However, as detailed later in this chapter, trends in HICs. Surprisingly, these trends are taking the majority of these young people in LICs and place at an even faster pace in UMICs. The most LMICs will not have tertiary schooling, and many notable example is China, where the fertility rate will not have secondary schooling, even if current dropped from 3.7 to 1.3 over the past five decades. education enrollment rates are increased. But other UMICs, such as Brazil, Mexico, Thailand, and Türkiye, all now have below-replacement Diverging demographic trends in countries at fertility rates. Furthermore, many LMICs, such as different income levels are clearly seen in their Bangladesh, the Arab Republic of Egypt, India, age pyramids (figure 1.2). In 1975, around half a and the Philippines, have experienced briskly century ago, UMICs and HICs displayed “textbook declining fertility rates in recent decades. Their perfect” age pyramids, with large shares of young fertility rates are still at or above replacement people and declining shares of older age groups. levels, and the share of the young in their popula- Current HIC age pyramids have a “constrictive” tions is still expanding. Finally, most LICs and LMICs shape, with smaller young populations (due to in Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to sustain below-replacement fertility levels) and expanding persistently high fertility rates for the time being. older populations (due to longer life expectancy) Fertility rates in Nigeria, Senegal, and the Demo- (Boucher 2016). The most rapid and unexpected cratic Republic of Congo range between 4 and 6 change, however, is taking place in the UMICs, and are not projected to converge with HIC rates as their demographic profiles converge to those for at least another 50 years. of the HICs. Declines in fertility rates in UMICs are more rapid than those seen in today’s HICs back Differences in current fertility rates have when they were at similar income levels. Even critical implications for future population though these average trends are partially driven distributions across regions as well as income by China, many other UMICs, such as Mexico and groups (figure 1.4). While total populations in 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 21 F I G U R E 1 . 2   Age profiles of UMICs are converging with those of HICs, while LMICs and LICs still maintain traditional age pyramids a. High-in ome ountries: 1975, 2025, 2075 100+ 90-94 Female (%) Male (%) Female (%) Male (%) Female (%) Male (%) 80-84 70-74 Age group 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 10 5 0 5 10 10 5 0 5 10 10 5 0 5 10 % of total population % of total population % of total population b. Upper-middle-in ome ountries: 1975, 2025, 2075 100+ 90-94 Female (%) Male (%) Female (%) Male (%) Female (%) Male (%) 80-84 70-74 Age group 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 10 5 0 5 10 10 5 0 5 10 10 5 0 5 10 % of total population % of total population % of total population . Lower-middle in ome ountries: 1975, 2025, 2075 100+ 90-94 Female (%) Male (%) Female (%) Male (%) Female (%) Male (%) 80-84 70-74 Age group 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 10 5 0 5 10 10 5 0 5 10 10 5 0 5 10 % of total population % of total population % of total population d. Lower-in ome ountries: 1975, 2025, 2075 100+ 90-94 Female (%) Male (%) Female (%) Male (%) Female (%) Male (%) 80-84 70-74 Age group 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 10 5 0 5 10 10 5 0 5 10 10 5 0 5 10 % of total population % of total population % of total population Source: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations Population Division medium variant projections (2022) (accessed February 15, 2024). 22 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N F I G U R E 1 . 3   Fertility rates are already below replacement rates in many traditional migrant-sending countries, and will stay well above replacement rates in several African countries over the next five decades a. Sele ted migrant-sending ountries b. Sele ted Afri an ountries 8 India 8 Mexi o 6 Philippines 6 Egypt, Arab Rep. Fertility ratio Fertility ratio Türkiye 4 4 Ethiopia Kenya Nigeria 2 2 Senegal ongo, Dem. Rep. 0 0 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 Source: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations Population Division medium variant projections (2022) (accessed February 8, 2024). F I G U R E 1 . 4   Populations will decline in UMICs and grow in LICs and LMICs, and the population of Sub-Saharan Africa will more than double in the next 50 years a. Populations by in ome lassifi ation b. Populations by region 12 12 anada and US 10 LA HI 10 E A 8 UMI 8 Billions Billions EAP 6 6 MENA 4 LMI 4 SAR 2 2 LI SSA 0 0 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 Source: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations Population Division medium variant projections (2022) (accessed April 30, 2024) Note: HIC = high-income country, LIC = low-income country, LMIC = lower-middle-income country, UMIC = upper-middle-income country; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; ECA = Europe and Central Asia; LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean; MENA = Middle East and North Africa; SAR = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. HICs and UMICs will decline moderately between Europe’s total population will decline by 7 percent, 2025 and 2075, they will grow by 1.4 billion and the United States and Canada will observe (43 percent) in LMICs and 1.1 billion (136 percent) a slight increase of 15 percent. In sharp contrast, in LICs. These population growth rates will also populations are projected to more than double lead to large regional disparities, since countries in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2075, grow by almost in the same income groups tend to be geograph- 50 percent in the Middle East and North Africa, ically close to one another. In the next 50 years, and grow by over 25 percent in South Asia. 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 23 These population growth disparities are F I G U R E 1 . 6   The ratio of working-age reflected in the current and projected to elderly persons is decreasing working-age populations (figure 1.5). The significantly faster in HICs and UMICs labor forces of LICs and LMICs will experience a 18 LI substantial influx of young workers—LMICs alone 16 expect to increase their working-age population 14 LMI by 790 million over the next 50 years. In contrast, 12 UMICs are expecting a sharp contraction of their 10 Ratio UMI working-age population by 490 million. Europe 8 and Central Asia’s share of the global labor force 6 HI will shrink from 15 percent in 2000 to 7 percent 4 in 2025 and to 6 percent in 2050 (see figure 1.4). 2 Sub-Saharan Africa’s share, by contrast, will 0 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 expand from 14 percent in 2025 to 23 percent in Source: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations Popu- 2050. Among other regions, East Asia and Pacif- lation Division medium variant projections (2022) (accessed ic’s share will contract from 32 percent in 2025 to March 28, 2024). 24 percent in 2050, while South Asia’s will see a Note: HIC = high-income country; LIC = low-income country; LMIC = lower-middle-income country; UMIC = upper-middle-in- minimal increase from 26 percent to 27 percent in come country. the same time frame. Across human history, the world has never (those between 15–654 to the elderly population seen so many elderly people as are living (those age 65 and above) declines sharply. By today, both in terms of absolute numbers and 2075, except for LICs, all countries will have fewer as a share of total population. Their number now than 3.1 working-age people for every 1 elderly exceeds the population of children under the age person. Aging and a declining labor force will be of five. Figure 1.6 shows that, over the next five accompanied by increased expenditure on health decades, all income groups will experience further care and greater demand for workers in medical aging, as the ratio of the working-age population and care occupations. As a result, more pressure F I G U R E 1 . 5   Over the next 25 years, the largest growth in the working-age populations will occur in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia a. 2000 b. 2025 . 2050 8% 8% 9% 14% 6% Sub-Saharan Afri a 9% 23% 7% South Asia 15% 4% 22% 5% Middle East and North Afri a East Asia Pa ifi 5% 26% anada and US 24% 5% Europe and entral Asia 32% 27% 36% Latin Ameri a and the aribbean 7% 8% Source: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations Population Division medium variant projections (2022) (accessed May 2, 2024). 24 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N will be placed on public budgets to sustain social F I G U R E 1 . 7   Within migration corridors, security systems. the largest gap in the pace of aging is between Africa and Europe Among countries in East Asia and Pacific, a. Afri a and Europe population trends are closely related to income levels (figure 1.7). The ratio of working-age to 16 Sub-Saharan elderly people in HICs in East Asia, such as Japan, Afri a the Republic of Korea, and Singapore, is among 12 the lowest in the world. This ratio is also decreasing Ratio Europe and entral Asia 8 MI Middle East and North Afri a rapidly in China, where it will converge with the East Asian HICs by 2050. In China, the size of the 4 Europe and entral Asia working-age population is expected to decline HI 0 by half, from 1.0 billion to 0.5 billion, by 2075. In 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 South Asia and the rest of East Asia, the ratio of working-age to elderly population will continue to b. Asia decline but remain above 4 until 2050 and reach 3 in 2075, led by India's expanding labor force. 16 hina; Hong Kong SAR, hina; South Asia Ma ao SAR, hina; Taiwan 12 In the Americas, old-age dependency is East Asia and Pa ifi Ratio 8 LI /MI highest in North America, but Latin America and the Caribbean are also aging rapidly. Over 4 the past few decades, rapid population growth East Asia and Pa ifi HI in Mexico and Central America was a major 0 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 factor behind the mass increase in migration to the United States (Hanson and McIntosh 2010). Today, that population growth has stagnated, and . The Ameri as many countries have started to age. The ratio of working-age to elderly persons in Latin America 16 South Ameri a and the Caribbean will gradually converge with 12 that of North America over the next 50 years, and entral Ameri a, Mexi o, and aribbean Ratio 8 this will reduce migration pressures in this corridor US and anada of the world. Traditional migrant-sending countries 4 like Brazil and Mexico are expected to see signifi- 0 cant drops in the ratio over the next 50 years, with 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 Brazil’s decreasing from 6.3 to 1.8 and Mexico’s Source: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations Popu- from 7.3 to 1.9. lation Division medium variant projections (2022) (accessed March 28, 2024). Note: HIC = high-income country; LIC = lower-income country; Returning to the analysis of projected labor MIC = middle-income country. force shortages, HICs and UMICs will need to grow their labor force by tens of millions of people with secondary and tertiary educa- tion. The analysis conducted for figure 1.1 can also be performed separately for each education 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 25 group, where a shortage is defined as the addi- such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Pakistan, the tional labor force needed to maintain a ratio of shortage of an educated labor force will occur 1.25 secondary-educated participants and 1.25 alongside a growing uneducated youth popu- tertiary-educated participants per elderly person. lation, such that can be addressed by investing This is the current average ratio across Organisa- in education. For those without growing young tion for Economic Co-operation and Development populations, such as Brazil, Thailand, and Türkiye, (OECD) countries (see the appendix for discussion migration will need to be part of the solution. and calculation details). Under these assumptions, Japan will face a labor force shortage of around Large increases in female and elderly LFP 30 million secondary-educated and 20 million rates will not be sufficient to meet the growing tertiary-educated people in 2050 (figure 1.8). demand for educated workers in HICs and In the United States, there will be a shortage of UMICs. Increasing the female LFP rate adds a around 70 million secondary-educated partic- total of around 35 million secondary-educated ipants. France, Germany, Italy, and Spain will and 35 million tertiary-educated participants each face a total of between 20 and 30 million in HICs, representing around 20 percent of the participants. More importantly, these shortages total labor force shortage in HICs (see figure 1.9 will also occur in countries that have tradition- and the appendix for details on the data and ally sent migrants. For some of these countries, the assumptions underlying these simulations). F I G U R E 1 . 8   Large shortages of secondary- and tertiary-educated workers are expected in both high-income countries and traditional migrant-sending middle-income countries a. High-in ome ountries b. Traditional migrant-sending ountries Australia Kazakhstan anada Se ondary Tertiary South Afri a Se ondary Tertiary Saudi Arabia olombia UK Moro o Poland Romania Fran e Indonesia Spain Mexi o Korea, Rep. Pakistan Germany Türkiye Italy Brazil Japan Thailand US Bangladesh 0 20 40 60 80 0 5 10 15 20 25 Millions of people Millions of people Sources: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations Population Division medium variant projections; education rates from Barro and Lee 2013, World Development Indicators DataBank, and UNESCO Institute for Statistics; and labor force participation rates from International Labour Organization. See the appendix for calculation details. Note: The figure shows the number of labor force participants over age 25 needed to maintain a ratio of 1.25 secondary-educated participants and 1.25 tertiary-educated participants (2.50 total) per person age 65 and above by 2050, assuming constant labor force participation and increasing education enrollment at the rate of 5 and 2.5 percentage points per decade for secondary and tertiary, respectively. 26 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N Increasing the LFP rate among people over age occupations could be covered by automation or 65 would add a smaller number, corresponding new artificial intelligence technologies (box 1.1), but to less than 5 percent of the labor force shortage these are unlikely to meet the gaps in full. in HICs. An additional migrant labor force equiv- alent to 10 percent of the working-age population The growing population in LICs and LMICs would further reduce the shortage by 60 million will require significant investments in educa- educated participants in HICs. In UMICs, after tion if they are to meet the demand for skilled excluding China, the shortages are not as large, labor both at home and abroad. The analysis especially for secondary-educated participants. in figure 1.1 is now implemented by education The combination of policies considered will be group for LICs and LMICs, with the ratio of labor sufficient only after including increased migration force participants needed per elder increased (figure 1.9). China, on the other hand, will continue from 2.5 to 3.75. This is a more conservative esti- to face a shortage of 250 million educated labor mate of worker needs and assumes that these force participants even after adopting each of countries require 1.25 workers per elder in each these policies. This analysis makes clear that each of the three education groups. Using this frame- of these efforts (adding additional females, elders, work, in 2050, LICs and LMICs (excluding India) or migrants to the labor force) would be insufficient can expect to have an additional 240 million and to meet the gaps created by the ongoing demo- 60 million labor force participants, respectively, graphic transition, which would instead require above the ratio of 3.75 per elder (figure 1.10). much larger migration flows to compensate. A few However, many of these additional participants F I G U R E 1 . 9   A combination of policies, including increasing migration, is needed to help meet the growing demand for educated workers in HICs and UMICs Se ondary HI s Tertiary UMI s, Se ondary ex luding hina Tertiary Se ondary hina Tertiary 0 50 100 150 200 250 Millions of people In rease female LFP In rease elderly LFP In rease migration by 10% Remaining labor for e halfway between halfway between of pop. ages 25–64 needed to maintain urrent value and 80% urrent value and 20% in edu ation group ratio of 2.5 per elder Sources: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations Population Division medium variant projections; education rates from Barro and Lee 2013; World Development Indicators DataBank, and UNESCO Institute for Statistics, and labor force participation (LFP) rates from International Labour Organization. See the appendix for calculation details. Note: HIC = high-income country; UMIC = upper-middle-income country. The figure shows the number of labor force participants over age 25 needed to maintain a ratio of 1.25 secondary-educated participants and 1.25 tertiary-educated participants (2.50 total) per person age 65 and above by 2050, assuming constant LFP and increasing education enrollment at a rate of 5 and 2.5 percentage points per decade for secondary and tertiary, respectively. 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 27 B O X 1 . 1   How will automation and remote work affect demand for migrant workers? A utomation can replace workers, but it also complements workers by creating new occu- pations and increasing production and overall labor Most workers today are not at risk of replacement by automation. The European Centre for the Develop- ment of Vocational Training’s (Cedefop’s) automation demand. For the past two centuries, economists risk indicator calculates the share of people in an and policy makers have worried that technolog- occupation whose jobs are potentially automatable ical progress would make workers obsolete, and yet based on detailed job descriptions and skill require- the employment-to-population ratio rose during the ments. Using the risk indicator, Pouliakas (2018) finds 20th century. Others have argued that the growth that only 14 percent of workers in the European Union of computing in the 20th century “polarized” labor (EU) face a high risk of automation, skewed heavily market outcomes, replacing workers in the middle of toward routine jobs that do not require teamwork or the skill distribution performing routine cognitive and customer-facing skills. On the other hand, 40 percent manual tasks, while complementing those completing face a risk of their job being somewhat transformed nonroutine tasks (Autor, Levy, and Murnane 2003). by automation—some of their tasks may change to It is an open question whether the current improve- complement new technology, but their jobs will not ments in computing power, artificial intelligence, and be completely automated. robotics will continue this trend. Many middle-skill Among occupations facing the highest expected occupations today—such as medical support or worker shortages in the EU, fewer than 15 percent of skilled trade workers—require a level of critical workers are estimated to be at risk of replacement thinking, communication, and collaboration skills that by automation. Figure B1.1.1 shows that, among the may make them less susceptible to automation in the occupations expected to face the greatest worker short term (Autor 2015). Nonetheless, the pace of job shortages in the EU, most workers are not going to automation remains highly uncertain. be replaced by automation. This rate is highest for F I G U R E B 1 . 1 . 1   Most EU jobs facing expected worker shortages are not at risk of automation 20 % of workers at risk of Low-skill o upation Mid-skill o upation High-skill o upation task automation 15 10 5 0 Manual laborers leaners & helpers Other elementary workers Food prep helpers Street servi es workers Drivers & vehi le operators Ma hine operators & assemblers Personal servi e workers are workers ustomer lerks O e asso . professionals Produ tion managers Legal & so ial asso . profs Exe utives & o ials Health professionals Legal & so ial professionals Source: European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop). Note: The figure shows the share of workers in each occupation that are at risk of being replaced by automation technology, restricted to the occupations with highest Future Shortage Indicator. (continued) 28 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N B O X 1 . 1   How will automation and remote work affect demand for migrant workers? (continued) some mid-skill occupations—around 17 percent of l Lack of high-speed Internet access remains assemblers and 13 percent of drivers and vehicle a challenge in many lower-income- and operators are at risk of being replaced. This rate is lower-middle-income countries. lowest (4 percent) for care workers, and it is similarly l Many professions cannot be implemented low for high-skill professional and managerial posi- remotely—for example, remote work is a possi- tions. The rate remains between 10–15 percent for bility for certain mid- and high-skill jobs, such as most low-skill workers in high-demand routine manual some consulting, professional services, informa- occupations. tion and communication technology, and tech jobs, but it cannot substitute for jobs that require phys- Similarly, advancements in remote work technology ical presence such as manufacturing jobs, many will enable only a subset of jobs to be implemented personal services, and management. remotely. The extent to which remote work will be able to fill worker demand in high- and upper-middle-in- l Regulations in the destination country limit over- come countries will be limited by three factors: seas remote work in many circumstances. F I G U R E 1 . 1 0   LICs and LMICs will experience large expansions in labor force per elder by 2050, but many labor force participants will have only primary schooling Labor force surplus Labor force shortage Lower-in ome ountries Lower-middle-in ome ountries India Primary Se ondary Tertiary −400 −200 0 200 400 Millions of people Sources: Authors’ calculations based on United Nations Population Division medium variant projections; education rates from Barro and Lee 2013, World Development Indicators DataBank, and UNESCO Institute for Statistics; and labor force participation rates from the International Labour Organization. See the appendix for calculation details. Note: LIC = low-income country; LMIC = lower-middle-income country. The figure shows the number of labor force participants over age 25 needed to maintain a ratio of 1.25 participants in each education group (3.75 total) per person age 65 and above by 2050, assuming constant labor force participation and increasing education enrollment at the rate of 5 and 2.5 percentage points per decade for secondary and tertiary, respectively. LMICs exclude India. are primary school educated. The total number education quality and the lack of marketable skills of primary-educated participants over 1.25 per among secondary graduates. At the same time, elder is 200 million across LICs and LMICs, while there will be a shortage of tertiary-educated labor for secondary-educated participants it is around force participants of around 180 million, driven 215 million. The challenge of these low education relatively more by LMICs where populations will levels in LICs and LMICs is amplified by the poor slowly begin to age. Large education investments 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 29 are needed if the growing youth populations of demographic, technological, and climate-related these countries are to benefit from the migra- trends influence labor demand by sector, tion opportunities resulting from global labor occupation, and skills. For example, certain tech- demand—which will, for the most part, require nologies—including artificial intelligence and secondary schooling. India, unlike most LMICs, will automation—may substitute for workers in some face a shortage of workers in all education groups. industries and occupations while increasing the demand for workers in complementary industries. In conclusion, current demographic imbal- Similarly, aging populations will increase demand ances will not only persist for the next three for elderly care workers, while global warming and decades but will also be widening. In the decreasing costs of solar panels will increase aging regions, a combination of policies will be demand for solar panel installers. needed, including increased migration, to address shortages in critical occupations and to finance Skill shortages are also driven by retirement pensions. On the other hand, in Sub-Saharan trends and the shrinking supply of new workers Africa, the inverse old-age dependency ratio is with the required skills and qualifications. The not expected to converge with that of Europe demand for workers will increase across the board and other high-income regions until the end of in HICs and many UMICs, such as China, that are the 21st century. The same pattern will persist, to aging rapidly—in particular in those sectors and a lesser extent, in South Asia and LICs and MICs occupations with a high share of workers nearing in East Asia and Pacific. These opposing demo- retirement age. As workers retire, they create graphic trends will lead to shortages in HICs and vacancies that need to be filled. If the supply of UMICs and a large supply of unemployed workers workers with the skills and certifications needed to in LICs and LMICs. Properly managed education fill these vacancies is limited, then firms are forced and migration outcomes are key to addressing to increase their sales prices as well as reduce the these challenges. supply of their goods and services. HICs and UMICs in Europe expect to face worker shortages not only in low-skill occu- 1.2 Sectoral and pations, but also in middle- and high-skill occupational occupations that require vocational training or tertiary education. The European Centre for shortages the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop) identifies the occupations that are expected to Global demand for workers is being trans- face the largest shortages across the European formed by developments in technology and Union (EU) through 2035, based on expected automation, economic responses to climate demand growth in sectors, worker retirement change, and other global megatrends, in addi- and replacement rates, and expected changes tion to demographic divergences. The baseline in worker supply. Across the EU, worker shortages employment level in an economy is shaped by are expected not only in elementary or low-skill aggregate demand for goods and services as occupations, but also in middle-skill occupa- well as the cost structure of production, and tions that often include workers with some level especially by technological innovations that of postsecondary vocational or tertiary education complement or substitute for labor. In addition, (figure 1.11). These include health and elderly care 30 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N F I G U R E 1 . 1 1   Occupations in the European Union with the highest expected demand shortages include many low-, middle-, and high-skill occupations 80 Low-skill o upation Mid-skill o upation High-skill o upation tertiary or vo . edu ation % of workers with any 60 40 20 0 Manual laborers leaners & helpers Other elementary workers Food prep helpers Street servi es workers Drivers & vehi le operators Ma hine operators & assemblers Personal servi e workers are workers ustomer lerks O e asso . professionals Produ tion managers Legal & so ial asso . profs Exe utives & o ials Health professionals Legal & so ial professionals Source: Authors’ calculations based on European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop) and European Skills and Jobs Survey (ESJS). Note: The Future Shortage Indicator combines estimates of demand growth, replacement risk, and worker supply through 2035. The figure presents the 16 occupations with the highest score (greater than 2.5 on a scale of 1–4). The share of workers with any vocational or tertiary education is calculated in the 2014 ESJS using survey weights. workers, customer service and personal service the next decade. These range from high-skilled workers in the hospitality and service industries, as occupations such as managers, engineers, and well as vehicle operators, machine operators, and information and communication technology assemblers in the manufacturing industry. Short- (ICT) workers to medium-skilled workers such as ages are also likely in high-skill occupations such skilled construction workers, welders, health care as managers in production processes and health professionals, and lab technicians (Government of professionals. Evidence from the Manpower Canada 2023). Australia’s Skills Priority List iden- Group’s Talent Shortage survey finds that the tifies occupations facing national shortages that positions for which EU companies report the include elderly care workers, engineers, machine most difficulty finding qualified candidates include operators and drivers, skilled agricultural workers, technicians (such as mechanics), customer care construction workers, carpenters, mechanics, experts, research and development experts, and and ICT workers (Government of Australia 2024). information technology (IT) experts (Yanatma Korea will need an additional 900,000 workers 2024). by 2032 according to the Korea Employment Information Service, and the Korean Ministry of Similar worker shortages and mismatches Employment and Labor reports national shortages are observed in HICs outside Europe, such in occupations including construction, manufac- as Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea, and the turing, elderly care, and hospitality. The Ministry United States. The Canadian Occupational of Foreign Affairs in Japan lists 16 occupations in Projection System suggests that 56 out of 293 similar sectors under the Specified Skilled Worker occupation groups will face shortages within 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 31 program.2 In the United States, the Chamber of shortages in MICs are in the same sectors as in Commerce reports drastic worker shortages and the HICs—for example, in health care, in elderly skill mismatches with 9.5 million job openings and care in countries where populations are aging, in 6.5 million unemployed in 2023 (Ferguson 2024). construction, or in the digital economy. Collectively, these labor shortages across almost all occupation categories have led to tightening Many of the occupations facing skill shortages labor markets and reduced productivity for many are female dominated. Of the 16 occupa- of the largest OECD economies (Madgavkar et tions projected by Cedefop to face the greatest al. 2024). skill shortages in the EU, women make up over 50 percent of the employment in 9 of them. These Worker shortages are not restricted to HICs— include skilled occupations such as care workers, they are also pervasive in many UMICs, health professionals, and associate office profes- LMICs, and LICs. The Manpower Group’s Talent sionals (figure 1.12). These statistics highlight even Shortage survey finds that the share of global further the need to increase female LFP and firms that report difficulty filling vacant positions the importance of including women in efforts to with qualified candidates increased steadily from increase skill supply through training and mobility 36 percent in 2014 to 75 percent in 2023. Notably, programs. this rate is similarly high among the various UMICs and LMICs included in the survey—such Nurses and other health care workers are as Brazil, China, Colombia, India, and Mexico— among the professionals with the largest which have an average labor skill shortage of expected shortages across the OECD coun- 72 percent compared with the global 75 percent tries due to rapidly aging populations. Across (Manpower Group 2024). Underqualification—or the OECD, the number of workers required to the share of workers with skill levels lower than sustain the current ratio of caregivers to elderly typically required by their occupation—is gener- people must increase by 60 percent by 2040 ally more prevalent in developing economies (OECD 2021). Germany alone will need more than than in developed economies. Underqualifica- 200,000 new nurses by 2030, including almost tion rates are between 10 and 30 percent in most 100,000 geriatric nurses (CGD 2021b). Australia LICs and MICs where these data are available, is expected to face a shortfall of 533,000 workers and in MICs are estimated to have increased in in the health care and social assistance sector recent years (Comyn and Strietska-Ilina 2019). between 2023 and 2033 (Australian Bureau of High underqualification rates indicate skill and Statistics 2024). According to the US Bureau of training shortages in the economy, though they Labor Statistics, there will be demand for 275,000 can also reflect employers’ inability to offer the new nurses between 2020 and 2030, making it the necessary salary or working conditions to attract fastest-growing occupation in the United States the needed talent. Importantly, many of these skill (US Department of Labor 2022). See Spotlight 1 for additional discussion of health worker shortages and migration trends. 2   As of January 2025, the full list includes nursing care, building cleaning management, industrial manufac- turing, construction, shipbuilding, auto repair, aviation, Countries at all income levels face shortages accommodation, agriculture, fisheries, food manufac- of teachers. The world needs an additional turing, food services, automobile transportation, railway, 44 million teachers by 2030 to meet universal forestry, and wood industry (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of primary and secondary enrollment goals (UNESCO Japan, https://www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/ca/fna/ssw/us/). 32 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N F I G U R E 1 . 1 2   Many EU jobs facing expected shortages are in female-dominated occupations 100 Low-skill o upation Mid-skill o upation High-skill o upation % of workers who are female 80 60 40 20 0 Manual laborers leaners & helpers Other elemenary workers Food prep helpers Street servi es workers Drivers & vehi le operators Ma hine operators & assemblers Personal servi e workers are workers ustomer lerks O e asso . professionals Produ tion managers Legal & so ial asso . profs Exe utives & o ials Health professionals Legal & so ial professionals Source: Authors’ calculations based on European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (Cedefop). Note: The figure shows the share of workers in each occupation that were female in 2022, restricted to the occupations with highest Future Shortage Indicator. 2024). The pupil-to-trained-teacher ratio is the need to lower carbon emissions and transi- highest in Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast tion to an economy that uses natural resources Asia, where it averages 56:1 and 35:1 for primary sustainably. More than 80 countries have pledged education, respectively—significantly higher to lower carbon emissions to zero in the coming than the OECD average of 15.1. However, HICs decades (Net Zero Tracker 2021). This requires frequently report shortages of teachers as well, rapid development and transition to green tech- leading to large-scale migration from lower- to nologies—in particular, the use of renewable higher-income countries, in particular to Australia, energy technologies including solar, wind, bioen- Canada, France, Germany, and the United States.3 ergy, and hydropower—as well as infrastructure See Spotlight 2 for additional discussion of educa- upgrades including building insulation and decar- tion worker shortages and migration trends. bonization and transport network electrification. This shift is already under way and is expected to The green transition is similarly creating lead to massive job expansion and skilled worker demand for workers in the renewable energy needs (box 1.2). sectors across countries at all stages of devel- opment. Countries are increasingly recognizing   Database on Immigrants in OECD Countries, http:// 3 www.oecd.org/els/mig/dioc.htm. 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 33 B O X 1 . 2   Meeting skill needs for the global green transition: A role for migration? T he green transition is already generating high demand for workers specializing in the green economy. The International Renewable Energy and Dempster 2024). It will thus be essential to invest in worker training and reskilling for countries at all income levels to increase the total availability of Agency estimates that renewable energy jobs skilled workers and to prevent massive labor gaps increased from 12.7 to 13.7 million between 2021 and in countries of origin. India’s Suryamitra program 2022 alone (figure B1.2.1). The Boston Consulting provides an example of a domestic training and labor Group and the International Organization for Migra- migration program (Huckstep and Dempster 2024). tion estimate that by 2030 there will be a global deficit Since 2015, the program has trained 80,000 workers of 7 million green skilled workers in solar photovol- in solar PV installation. Because less than a third of taic (PV), wind, bioenergy, electric vehicle charging trainees found employment in India’s solar sector in stations, and hydropower sectors (Harnoss, Mondal, 2022 (due in part to the impact of COVID-19, the high and Kugel 2023). import costs for solar PV panels, and the mismatch between the location of engineers and areas of high Labor demand generated by the green transition is solar capacity), the German Solar Association (BSW) global and requires workers with a range of low, mid, and the Indian Skill Council for Green Jobs agreed and high skills. The jobs needed for the green transi- to send around 2,000 program trainees to Germany tion would often not require tertiary qualifications, but between 2024 and 2026 (Tyagi, Shejale, and Kuldeep short periods of vocational training. But they may be 2022). hard to fill given their manual nature and lower sala- ries, and a high share of workers in sectors relevant to the green transition are nearing retirement (Huckstep F I G U R E B 1 . 2 . 1   Global employment in renewable energy sectors has almost doubled over the past decade 14 12 Number of jobs (millions) Other 10 Solar heating/ ooling 8 Wind energy 6 Hydropower Bioenergy 4 Solar 2 photovoltai 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Source: IRENA 2023. Note: Bioenergy includes liquid biofuels, solid biomass, and biogas; hydropower includes direct jobs only; and other includes geothermal energy, concentrated solar power, heat pumps (ground based), municipal and industrial waste, and ocean energy. 34 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N Access to education has improved in countries 1.3 Global supply of at all income levels over the past five decades, but with significant differences. About half a skills century ago, only around 65 percent of the global population had received some formal educa- Labor shortages in key sectors will require tion, concentrated mostly in HICs and UMICs not only additional workers, but workers with (figure 1.13). Today, that figure stands at around the right skills and education. Recent trends in 87 percent, with most of the credit for this increase educational attainment, both at the formal and due to a steady march toward universal primary practical level in technical and vocational training, education, including in LICs (figure 1.14a). Similarly, suggest that the task to upskill workers in LICs secondary education attainment has more than and LMICs to fill these shortages will become an doubled from 50 years ago (figure 1.13), and tertiary urgent global challenge. education enrollment approaches 20 percent globally (figure 1.14c). These advancements have F I G U R E 1 . 1 3   Education composition has improved dramatically, but with large differences across country income groups a. High-in ome ountries b. Upper-middle-in ome ountries 80 80 Share of population (%) Share of population (%) 60 60 Se ondary edu ation Se ondary edu ation 40 Tertiary edu ation 40 Primary edu ation No edu ation 20 Primary edu ation 20 Tertiary edu ation No edu ation 0 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 . Lower-middle-in ome ountries d. Low-in ome ountries 80 80 Share of population (%) Share of population (%) No edu ation 60 No edu ation 60 40 40 Se ondary edu ation Primary edu ation Primary edu ation Se ondary edu ation 20 20 Tertiary edu ation Tertiary edu ation 0 0 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 Source: Authors’ calculations using data from Barro and Lee 2013. Note: Country-level educational attainment restricted to ages 18–64 and weighted by population. 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 35 F I G U R E 1 . 1 4   While primary school enrollment rates are converging, secondary and tertiary enrollment rates are diverging a. Primary enrollment b. Se ondary enrollment . Tertiary enrollment 120 UMIC 120 120 HI 100 100 HI 100 LMI Gross enrollment (%) Gross enrollment (%) Gross enrollment (%) 80 80 UMIC 80 HI LI 60 60 LMI 60 UMIC 40 40 40 LI LMI 20 20 20 LI 0 0 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Development Indicators DataBank. Note: HIC = high-income country; LIC = low-income country; LMIC = lower-middle-income country; UMIC = upper-middle-income country. Country-level education enrollment rates weighted by population. been instrumental in global prosperity increase, and MICs. But female enrollment has stubbornly poverty reduction, and productivity growth— lagged male enrollment in LICs across all levels; albeit not equally achieved around the world, there, the education gender gap has not changed with progress particularly slow in LICs and LMICs. much over the last five decades (figure 1.15). The secondary enrollment rate has increased to 66 percent in LMICs and 40 percent in LICs, Despite some progress in education levels, creating a solid foundation of workers with the many people in LICs, LMICs, and UMICs are out skills required to enter more advanced schooling of work or underemployed in low-productivity or technical training, but still leaving behind a informal jobs. Women and youth are often partic- significant number of children without mean- ularly disadvantaged. The youth unemployment ingful human capital investments. Gross tertiary rate among those not in school has gradually enrollment is a disappointing 9 percent in LICs, increased over the past decade, rising from 9.7 demonstrating that the vast majority of the workers to 11.4 percent in LICs, 14.9 to 17.3 percent in with completed secondary education do not LMICs, and 13.6 to 15.1 percent in UMICs. In each have the opportunity to enter higher education. case, this rate is disproportionately larger for Providing education and training to youth in LICs women (figure 1.16). In addition to this, the global is a key developmental priority, not just to generate share of youth not in employment, education, or employment opportunities but also to mitigate training remains over 20 percent in LICs, LMICs, social risks associated with widespread youth and UMICs. Furthermore, many who are working unemployment and underemployment. are in small-scale self-employment or low-wage casual employment. Gender gaps in education have narrowed across the board, but still remain large in LICs Despite skilled worker shortages, unem- and in tertiary education. Female enrollment has ployment rates in LICs and LMICs remain converged with or even surpassed male enroll- high even among the well-educated. Among ment in secondary and tertiary schools in HICs those who have completed upper secondary or 36 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N F I G U R E 1 . 1 5   Female secondary and tertiary enrollment has increased alongside male enrollment in all income groups a. Se ondary enrollment b. Tertiary enrollment 120 120 Male enrollment 100 100 Female enrollment HI Gross enrollment (%) Gross enrollment (%) HI 80 80 LMI UMI 60 60 UMI LI 40 40 LMI LI 20 20 Male enrollment 0 Female enrollment 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source: World Development Indicators DataBank (UNESCO Institute for Statistics). Note: HIC = high-income country; LIC = low-income country; LMIC = lower-middle-income country; UMIC = upper-middle-income country. in these countries, as well as a failure of educa- F I G U R E 1 . 1 6   Youth unemployment has steadily increased in LICs and MICs tion and training systems to train workers in the skills demanded by employers. In other words, 25 due to the mismatches between the skills the labor UMI Share of population (%) LMI market demands and those the education system 20 provides, people are without jobs even while there 15 is a shortage of skilled workers in many key occu- pations in LICs and LMICs. 10 LI 5 Vocational training is key for equipping Male enrollment Female enrollment workers with the technical skills needed in the 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 labor force. Vocational training systems—often referred to as technical and vocational education Source: World Development Indicators DataBank (Interna- tional Labour Organization model estimates). and training in the literature—can be highly rele- Note: HIC = high-income country; LIC = low-income country; vant for all sectors and all country income levels if LMIC = lower-middle-income country; UMIC = upper-middle-in- come country. they are high quality and provide skills with market demand, which unfortunately is often not the case in low-income settings. When coupled with foun- any postsecondary nontertiary schooling, over dational cognitive and socioemotional skills that 7 percent of men and over 10 percent of women allow workers to move more easily across jobs, remain unemployed (figure 1.17). In LICs and firms, and sectors, technical and vocational skills LMICs, these rates are even higher for tertiary have been shown to contribute to the structural graduates. This pattern in part reflects the lack transformation and growth of an economy (Arias, of jobs that are available for educated workers Evans, and Santos 2019; World Bank, UNESCO, 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 37 F I G U R E 1 . 1 7   A large share of educated workers in low- and lower-middle-income countries remain unemployed a. Upper se ondary or vo ational edu ation b. Tertiary edu ation 20 20 Total Male Female Total Male Female Unemployment rate (%) Unemployment rate (%) 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 Low-in ome Lower- Upper-middle- High-in ome Low-in ome Lower- Upper-middle- High-in ome ountries middle-in ome in ome ountries ountries middle-in ome in ome ountries ountries ountries ountries ountries Source: Authors’ calculations based on World Development Indicators DataBank (ILOStat). Note: Country-level unemployment rates weighted by the size of the labor force in the respective demographic group, using the most recent estimate available in each country between 2010 and 2019. and ILO 2023). Beyond foundational skills (math, F I G U R E 1 . 1 8   Secondary enrollment in reading, science), the need for strong tech- vocational training is lower in low- and nical skills increases with changing labor market lower-middle-income countries needs—which are, in turn, driven by globaliza- 20 Total Male Female % se ondary vo ational enrollment tion, technological progress, and climate change trends, among others. If they are appropriately 15 strengthened, vocational training institutions could play a central role in helping employees acquire these in-demand skills and in connecting workers 10 to the right employers. 5 Vocational training enrollment is lower in LICs and LMICs, which is a missed opportu- 0 nity for providing a fundamental channel of Low-in ome Lower- Upper-middle- High-in ome ountries middle-in ome in ome ountries skill acquisition. Across the world, the share of ountries ountries secondary-school-age students enrolled in voca- Source: World Development Indicators DataBank (UNESCO tional training has grown steadily over the past Institute for Statistics) for 2018. two decades, increasing from around 8.6 percent in 2000 to 11.3 percent in 2020 (World Bank, around 15 percent. This need for vocational UNESCO, and ILO 2023). However, it remains training is expected to continue, especially in below 7 percent in LICs and LMICs (figure 1.18). LICs and MICs as the share of youth going into This contrasts with UMICs, which have nearly secondary education increases in those countries. converged with HICs, with enrollment rates of 38 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N For example, this is especially true in Sub-Saharan such as Bangladesh, Brazil, El Salvador, Mongolia, Africa countries like Burundi, Liberia, Mali, Mozam- and Mozambique show that vocational training bique, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda, where the can become more effective with improved curric- number of secondary students enrolled in voca- ulum design, program delivery, and IT-based tional training is expected to more than quadruple training, so long as it is supported by increased over the next few decades (World Bank, UNESCO, financial resources, quality assurance, and regu- and ILO 2023). latory reforms that hold providers accountable (World Bank, UNESCO, and ILO 2023). Improving Low vocational training enrollment rates are vocational training capacity and quality will be driven, in part, by the relatively low quality of crucial to fill the growing skill shortages that training in low- and middle-income countries employers face in low- and middle-income coun- and general lack of alignment with employer tries. needs. Despite the important role of vocational training in supplying technical skills demanded by the economy, it remains a risky investment for students which does not always pay off in terms 1.4 Evolving migration trends of employment and earnings (Arias, Evans, and Santos 2019). Teachers often have limited industry experience or pedagogical training, and voca- Over the last three decades, growth of inter- tional training systems underemphasize the skills national migration was driven primarily by demanded by firms, often with little financial incen- flows from MICs to HICs (figure 1.19). Most indi- tive to improve their placement rates (World Bank, viduals migrate to destinations with better income UNESCO, and ILO 2023). Given that vocational prospects and where employment opportuni- training also tends to attract lower-income and ties match their productive capacity. This implies disadvantaged students, it is often not up to the task of providing them with the skills they need to succeed. F I G U R E 1 . 1 9   Increasing migration from Women are less likely to enroll in vocational MICs to HICs has shaped global trends training, widening gender gaps across coun- over the last three decades tries in all income groups and regions. Women 300 are also less likely than men to specialize in fields with higher labor market returns, including those 250 Millions of migrants requiring skills in science, technology, engineering, HI to HI 200 and mathematics (STEM). This enrollment gap translates into greater earning inequality, even 150 MI to HI though overall enrollment rates are similar for both 100 men and women. 50 MI to MI Evidence from successful vocational training All other flows 0 reforms shows that improved technical training 1990 2000 2010 2020 and funding can greatly improve capacity, Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from World Bank 2023. quality, and equity. The experiences of countries Note: HIC = high-income country; MIC = middle-income country. 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 39 that they typically move one level higher on the will decrease. Since the labor market needs in income ladder (Pekkala Kerr et al. 2017; World HICs show no signs of abating, emigration flows Bank 2023). Migrants from LICs primarily move will increasingly need to originate from LICs and to LMICs, while those from UMICs move to HICs LMICs. With populations that are expected to (only in the case of the LMICs will the majority of stay relatively young for the coming decades and migrants advance two rungs of the income ladder) labor markets with limited opportunities, LICs and (figure 1.20). Thus, HICs have addressed their labor LMICs are in an ideal position to replace MICs shortages through migration mainly from MICs. as origin countries. However, the emerging chal- Traditional migrant-sending countries, such as lenge is making sure future emigrants have the Egypt, India, Mexico, the Philippines, and Türkiye, right skills and human capital needed by global have (1) education systems that produce migrants labor markets. with the right skill matches; (2) geographic and cultural proximity to destination countries, which Migration flows are becoming increasingly lowers migration costs; and/or (3) demographic high skilled. The share of all immigrants with profiles and labor market conditions that lead to tertiary education has gradually increased, large underemployed young populations willing from 22 percent in 2000 to 30 percent in 2020 to migrate for better opportunities. Emigration (figure 1.21). This trend is particularly true for migra- flows from LICs remain comparatively low, both tion into HICs, which originates predominantly in relative and absolute terms, with only a marginal from MICs. In response to worker shortages and fraction going to HICs. the expected positive consequences for produc- tivity and growth, many HICs have taken steps Demographic trends imply that future migra- to facilitate skilled migration. Of course, HICs are tion flows will increasingly come from LMICs simultaneously pursuing other strategies such as and LICs instead of UMICs. As the demo- encouraging women to enter the workforce and graphic profiles of UMICs converge with those of older workers to stay employed and productive for HICs, the share of migrants originating from MICs longer (Petrauskaite and Tiongson 2024). However, F I G U R E 1 . 2 1   The share of migrants with F I G U R E 1 . 2 0   Migrants typically move tertiary education has increased one level up the income ladder (global migration in 2020) 50 % of immigrants with tertiary ed. HIC 40 40 HI to HI UMI 51 30 MI to HI MI to MI 59 20 All other flows LMIC 8 10 17 All immigrants 18 0 6 10 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 10 LI 7 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from World Bank 2023. Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from the World Bank 2023. Note: HIC = high-income country; MIC = middle-income country. 40 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N they have largely recognized that migration must and legal rights similar to those of citizens. Many be part of the solution, coinciding with the global of these migrants eventually obtain permanent trend of increased migration of skilled workers. residency and citizenship. Several countries have also established job search visas, granting entry to In many countries, the share of immigrants and migrants who meet specific skill criteria but have emigrants with a tertiary education surpasses yet to secure employment. In Austria, Germany, that of native populations (figure 1.22). In Portugal, Sweden, and the United Arab Emirates, addressing labor and skill deficits, many HICs have such systems enable skilled individuals to obtain a created appealing migration pathways to attract visa for the sole purpose of finding employment in foreign talent. Examples include expanding visa sectors with shortages (World Bank 2023). Mean- issuances for skilled workers, facilitating faster while, pathways for individuals with lower and visa processes or recognition of foreign qualifica- moderate skill levels are scarce and mostly of a tions, and increasing visa categories for workers temporary nature, and thus generate incentives in shortage occupations (box 1.3). Migrants for undocumented migration flows. possessing skills in high demand—whether they are scientists, physicians, or football players—are The negative economic consequences of often granted favorable employment privileges high-skilled emigration, often referred to as F I G U R E 1 . 2 2   Immigrants and emigrants have higher rates of tertiary education than native populations Emigrants Immigrants 80 % of population with tertiary edu ation 60 Singapore 40 Singapore United States United States anada Russian Russian anada Federation Federation Australia Australia Spain 20 Spain Fran e Germany Mexi o Mexi o Fran e Germany Nigeria Türkiye Nigeria Philippines Türkiye India India Philippines South Afri a hina South Afri a hina Ethiopia Ethiopia 0 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 % of emigrants with tertiary edu ation % of immigrants with tertiary edu ation Source: Authors’ calculations based on data for 2020 from World Bank 2023. Note: Marker size is proportional to the number of emigrants or immigrants. 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 41 B O X 1 . 3   The global increase in visa pathways for skilled workers and shortage occupations I n response to growing shortages and concerns about their effects on economic productivity and growth, several high-income countries have imple- United States, the number of H1-B visa issuances increased from 188,123 in FY19 to 265,777 in FY23 (US Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs mented immigration reforms to facilitate more labor 2023). Issuances of the EU Blue Card, which allows migration. For example, poor economic growth pros- highly skilled individuals to live and work across most pects in Germany have led officials to introduce several countries in the European Union, increased from laws to facilitate greater migration, including those 52,127 in 2019 to 81,851 in 2022 (Eurostat 2024). In speeding up visa issuance and recognizing foreign the United Kingdom, between June 2022 and June qualifications (Petrauskaite and Tiongson 2024). Spain, 2023, skilled worker visa grants rose from 51,811 to in part reflecting an ongoing desire to use immigration 69,421, and expanded visas for health care workers to fill labor shortages in key sectors, recently passed rose from 47,194 to 121,290 (UK Home Office 2023). a reform (Decree 629/2022). This program introduced Similarly, the number of employment permits Singa- various measures to facilitate immigrant regularization pore issued grew from 193,700 in 2019 to 205,400 and inclusion in the labor market, including specific in 2023 (Singapore Ministry of Manpower 2024). channels for international students graduating in Spain, Australia’s temporary skill shortage visa grants and firms interested in international recruitment. This (health, information and communication technology, trend is not necessarily restricted to high-income coun- hospitality, education) increased from 28,414 in tries. El Salvador recently announced plans to offer 2020 to 51,610 in 2023 (Australian Department of 5,000 free passports to scientists, engineers, doctors, Home Affairs 2024). Meanwhile, Canada’s planned artists, and philosophers from abroad with 0 percent immigration levels for caregivers and agrifood taxes and tariffs for moving their families and assets. workers, and for skilled foreign workers in smaller communities, grew from 8,500 to 10,250 between Countries have also increased fast-tracked visas to 2021 and 2023. support migration of workers in key sectors. In the brain drain, remains a persistent concern in human capital accumulation, international busi- many low- and middle-income countries. ness networks, and technology transfer. But there Migration presents many prodigious opportuni- are also cases where concerns reflect a true drain ties for migrants as well as for their families and of human capital from the relatively poorer origin communities back home. However, the departure country. Regardless of the accuracy of concerns, of highly skilled individuals can also impede devel- policy makers around the world frequently high- opment progress, particularly when those skills light brain drain as a major challenge that needs were financed by the limited resources of an origin to be resolved. For example, in 2021, President country that is already suffering human capital Muhammadu Buhari of Nigeria stated, “The flight shortages (World Bank 2023). In some cases, of doctors and nurses to other continents has these concerns can be overblown. Sometimes resulted in a significant gap between the required high-skilled emigration is small relative to worker treatments for NCDs [noncommunicable diseases] shortages. It often benefits the origin economy and the available treatments and care” (Chime through various channels, such as improved 2021). In 2022, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of 42 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N the Philippines stated, “Let us reverse the brain in low- and middle-income countries is a devel- drain. Let us bring back the talent of Filipinos opment challenge that will not be solved without to the Philippines and help bring the Philippines substantial investment in education and skills to heights it has not reached before” (Parrocha training systems. 2022). Education is becoming increasingly global, and Skill shortages in low- and middle-income more training is being financed by destination countries require investment in skills training countries. About a third of all tertiary-educated systems and cannot be solved by restricting migrants received their education in a place emigration. Certain policies seek to prevent outside their country of birth (World Bank 2023). skilled workers from emigrating—for example, by For instance, in the United States and Canada, preventing destination countries from recognizing over half of all STEM doctoral students are their skills or restricting international recruitment of foreign citizens (World Bank 2023). Fifty percent skilled workers. In most cases, these policies disin- of college-educated migrants from Central Amer- centivize migration but do not reduce it entirely. ican and Caribbean countries obtained their They instead push people, including those with degrees in the United States (figure 1.23). A handful secondary and college degrees, to migrate irreg- of HICs manage to attract a disproportionate ularly. However, it must be recognized that even number of high-skilled migrants: 50 percent of when policies are successful at restricting emigra- all tertiary-educated migrants reside in just four tion, the scale of high-skilled emigration is often destination countries—Australia, Canada, the small compared to the scale of skill shortages in United Kingdom, and the United States (World origin countries. The shortage of skilled workers Bank 2023). F I G U R E 1 . 2 3   Many high-skilled emigrants in the United States obtained their degrees there 80 % of ollege-edu ated migrants in US 60 with US degrees 40 20 0 Belize Jamai a Domini an Haiti Ni aragua El Guatemala abo Liberia Ghana Senegal Gambia, Guinea Zambia Republi Salvador Verde The ountry of origin in ountry of origin in Latin Ameri a and the arribean Sub-Saharan Afri a Source: World Bank 2023 data based on 2019 five-year estimates of the American Community Survey. 1 :   AT A C R O S S R O A D S 43 opportunities. Increasing access to these opportu- 1.5 Tying it all together: nities can help workers build the skills they need to meet evolving demand, both at home and abroad. Implications of current demographic, skill, Firms and governments in destination coun- and migration trends tries have strong incentives to invest in training migrants to enter the occupations for the future of global facing growing demand. Many of the sectors migration systems facing or expected to face global labor short- ages—health and elderly care, construction, and As global migration expands, it becomes hospitality, among others—require specialized increasingly urgent to invest in safe, orderly, or technical skills. The stock and flow of skilled and regular migration pathways. Origin and qualified migrant workers will run out, given and destination countries have jointly recog- the demographic trajectory of traditional UMICs nized this point. The Global Compact for Safe, from which most economic migrants are currently Orderly and Regular Migration, adopted by the coming. The governments of destination coun- majority of UN member states in 2018, pledged tries have already begun to recognize that, in to strengthen regional and global cooperation to addition to other policies, migration is an unavoid- create conditions for safe, orderly, humane, and able piece of the solution. They have begun to regular migration. Regular pathways are essential increase migration pathways for skilled workers for improving migrant well-being and produc- in key sectors and to invest in training programs tivity—they are necessary for migrants to access for migrants entering these sectors. formal labor markets, social services, labor market services (such as assistance in being matched to Among the broader agenda to improve firms where they can be most productive), and migration and training systems, Global Skill regulatory protections such as those regarding Partnerships (GSPs) are a promising and minimum wages and safe working conditions. important tool to address each of these chal- Whether migrants come via regular pathways lenges by investing in skills for workers in can also have a large effect on public percep- both origin and destination labor markets. tions toward migration. The next chapter discusses the GSP as a poten- tial win-win solution to address skill shortages Persistent skill gaps between origin and at both migrant origin and destination coun- destination countries, as well as deficien- tries. Through collaboration and innovation in skill cies in the quality of education and training development and migration management, GSPs systems in most origin countries, place skills could cost-effectively expand domestic training training at the center of the labor mobility capacity at origin, reducing concerns around agenda. The abundance of younger and under- brain drain while facilitating the benefits of regu- employed workers, together with the shortage larized skilled migration for migrants and origin of skilled workers in many LICs and MICs, high- and destination countries. In this way, GSPs can lights the importance of investing in education and align migration policy with development goals and vocational training systems in these countries. A help navigate the complexities of future migration growing stock of secondary-educated workers while promoting sustainable economic growth and lack access to quality higher or technical education human development worldwide. SPOTLIGHT 1 International migration of health care workers The world is in desperate need of more health and Spain are all anticipated to have over care workers. In 2018, the World Health Orga- 30 percent of their population to be over age 65 nization (WHO) reported a global shortage of (Kumar et al. 2022). Italy, Korea, and Spain when 5.9 million nurses, with the expectation that considering both their aging populations and the the shortfall would only worsen in the years to number of nurses per resident, show a marked come (WHO 2020). The global demand for addi- trend of high old-age dependency ratios along- tional health care workers is projected to reach side insufficient numbers of nurses (figure S1.1). This 80 million by 2030, while the current trajectory disparity highlights a significant and growing pres- suggests training of only 65 million, leaving a deficit sure on the health care systems of these countries, of 15 million (Liu et al. 2017). In high-income coun- particularly as their populations continue to age tries (HICs), the shortage of health care workers at an accelerated rate. is closely correlated with aging populations. The inverse old-age dependency ratio in HICs has In many low- and middle-income countries, reached historically low levels, falling below a ratio there is paradoxically both a demand for of 3 working-age adults per elderly person, with and a surplus of health care workers. Despite projections indicating a decrease to below 2 by Africa bearing 24 percent of the global disease 2075 (figure S1.1). By 2050, Germany, Greece, Italy, burden, it hosts only 3 percent of the world’s health Japan, the Republic of Korea, Portugal, Singapore, workforce (Anyangwe and Mtonga 2007). While F I G U R E S 1 . 1   Many high-income countries are facing nurse shortages due to rapid aging 17 Australia Ireland 15 Japan Nurses per 1,000 people 13 Germany Netherlands 11 Korea, Rep. anada 9 United Kingdom 7 Italy Spain 5 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Old-age dependen y ratio proje ted for 2050 Sources: Authors’ calculations based on the United Nations Population Division medium variant projections for 2050 and data from the World Health Organization for 2018–19 (accessed June 3, 2024). Note: Bubble size is proportional to gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. 44 S potlight 1 :   I nternational migration of health care w orkers 45 European Union countries report an average ratio It is not surprising that competitive and of 83 nurses per 10,000 people, Sub-Saharan high-paying health care systems in HICs have Africa reports approximately 17. Similar dispar- contributed to the increased migration of ities are observed in doctor density (figure S1.2) health workers from lower- to higher-income and other health care resources. Furthermore, countries. Between 2006 and 2016, the number health workers tend to be heavily concentrated of foreign-trained doctors working in the Organisa- in cities and scarce in rural and remote areas in tion for Economic Co-operation and Development lower-income countries (LICs), adding to severe (OECD) countries increased by 50 percent, while inequalities. At the same time, the failure to inte- foreign-trained nurses increased by 20 percent grate health care workers into the formal system between 2011 and 2016 (OECD 2020b). In 2017, through stable and satisfactory employment has about 17 percent of the doctors in OECD coun- left many health workers under- or unemployed tries received their training overseas (figure S1.3). in lower-middle-income countries and LICs. In Notably, in Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, the 2023, Uganda’s Nurse and Midwives Council United Kingdom, and Canada, the proportion registered 108,208 nurses, yet only 87,618 were of foreign-trained doctors reaches or exceeds formally within the health care system (Hutchinson 25 percent. The numbers are slightly lower but et al. 2024). African health professionals indicate still notable for nursing, with nearly 7 percent several points of dissatisfaction with their health foreign-trained (OECD 2020b). Given the systems, including low and delayed salaries, lack increasing demand for health workers in HICs, of promotions and recognition, and low budgetary often coupled with rigid constraints on the ability allocations leading to lack of equipment and to train and recruit health workers domestically, general support (Awases et al. 2004). The limited the migration of skilled health professionals is absorption capacity of health care systems in LICs expected to increase. and middle-income countries (MICs) exacerbates the already highly unequal distribution of global The growing mobility of health care workers health workers. from LICs and MICs to HICs has prompted ethical concerns regarding health worker F I G U R E S 1 . 2   The density of doctors and nursing personnel is highly unbalanced a. Doctor density b. Nursing and midwifery personnel density (per 10,000 pop.) (per 10,000 pop.) 84 223 0 0 IBRD 48585 | JANUARY 2025 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from World Health Organization 2018–19 (accessed June 3, 2024). 46 S potlight 1 :   I nternational migration of health care w orkers F I G U R E S 1 . 3   The share of foreign-trained doctors reaches or exceeds 25 percent in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States 45 40 Nurses Do tors 35 % who are foreign trained 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 OE D Australia Belgium anada Denmark Fran e Italy Nether- New Sweden UK US total lands Zealand Source: Authors’ calculations based on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Health Statistics, 2018 (accessed March 20, 2024). recruitment from countries experiencing short- 2021). Moreover, in a new report, “Bilateral Agree- ages. In response to this phenomenon, commonly ments on Health Worker Migration and Mobility,” referred to as brain drain, the WHO introduced the WHO underscores the opportunities associ- its Global Code of Practice on the International ated with a properly managed bilateral health Recruitment of Health Personnel in 2010. The WHO migration scheme (WHO 2024). code aimed at curbing unilateral and unregulated recruitment of health workers from countries iden- Preventing health worker mobility is not a tified as facing “critical shortages” (WHO 2010), solution to the health worker shortage in defined as having fewer than 2.28 health workers LICs and MICs. Schemes to prevent health per thousand population. More recently, in 2020 worker mobility typically include quotas, taxes, (and despite the original code not applying to bilat- or “bonding” schemes that require mandatory eral agreements, but to unilateral and unregulated work in the origin country before a health worker recruitment), the WHO clarified that the code does can migrate. Evidence on the effectiveness of not discourage government-to-government coop- these schemes is mixed, and they can also disin- eration and agreements established on mutually centivize investment in health training in the first beneficial terms, as it was somehow misinterpreted place (Zimbudzi 2013). Furthermore, not only are by some governments and parties—including health care workers often unemployed due to the UK National Health Service, which upon the low demand, but their emigration is typically not 2020 clarification, reversed its recruitment ban. the most prominent driver of domestic shortages. Instead, the code encourages initiatives aimed at While systematic data are lacking, it is estimated enhancing health outcomes in countries of both that around 20 percent of African-born physi- origin and destination (Clemens and Dempster cians and only 10 percent of African-born nurses S potlight 1 :   I nternational migration of health care w orkers 47 work abroad, though this rate is higher for certain countries may receive training tailored toward countries (Clemens and Pettersson 2008). Some preventive, community, or primary care. Germany of these professionals worked for years in their and the Philippines have recently established a origin country before emigrating, and a large GSP in nursing in which general training is followed share completed their education abroad—almost by a split into “home” and “away” tracks catered to 50 percent among African doctors practicing the distinct health worker needs of each country in the United States (Özden and Phillips 2015). (see box 2.6). GSPs may be most suitable for health Instead, the challenge of low health professional fields with relatively concise training and certifica- density in LICs and MICs requires investing in tion processes and less stringent regulations, such health worker training, alongside general improve- as nursing, physical therapy, and elderly care. A ments in the quality and absorption capacity of properly designed GSP will increase the stock of health systems. As discussed before, the latter health care personnel, thereby enhancing global is crucial to prevent existing nurses and medical health outcomes. doctors in LICs and MICs from being overqualified in occupations such as elderly care or having to The health care sectors in less developed accept low pay. Failing to fully utilize health worker economies face both supply and demand skills may not constitute brain drain but instead issues for which GSPs present only one aspect brain waste. of the solution. To ensure proper absorption and retention of workers in origin country labor Global Skill Partnerships (GSPs) in health markets, governments must invest in robust infra- care can be used to invest in health worker structure and health care systems capable of training for both origin and destination coun- accommodating this workforce supply. Moreover, tries through mutually beneficial agreements. improvements in work incentives, such as access A GSP in health care would entail training both to decent jobs, social protection, labor rights, and migrants and nonmigrants while ensuring individ- adequate compensation, are imperative to attract uals obtain the skills required in their respective workers to remain in their countries of origin. labor markets. For instance, migrants to countries with aging populations may focus on elderly care, while nonmigrants intending to stay in their origin SPOTLIGHT 2 International migration of education workers A global shortage of education workers has Projections for recruitment needs by 2030 been reported as many countries’ teacher confirm that the shortage of teachers will recruitment needs remain largely unmet. continue in both developing countries and Overall, the world needs an additional 44 million advanced economies (UNESCO 2024). The teachers by 2030 to achieve universal primary concurrent teacher shortages across low-, and secondary enrollment (UNESCO 2024).1 middle-, and high-income countries have different Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia exhibit characteristics. While the vast majority of vacan- the highest ratios of pupil to trained teacher for cies are attributed to new teaching posts in primary education at 56:1 and 35:1, respec- Sub-Saharan Africa (62.5 percent) and South Asia tively—well above the Organisation for Economic (60.6 percent), in Europe and North America the Co-operation and Development (OECD) average overwhelming majority of vacancies will be due to of 15.1 and the global average of 26.7 (figure S2.1). replacing current staff (93.5 percent) (figure S2.2). However, the lack of qualified teachers is trans- This reflects the diverging population aging trends versal and equally observed in high-income across these countries. Where the share of popu- countries (HICs) across Europe and North lation age 65 or over is projected to increase on America. Thirty-five educational systems in average in OECD countries, across most of Africa Europe have reported facing challenges due to and Asia the youth population is increasing, a shortage of teachers (European Commission creating additional educational needs (UN DESA 2021). A significant need for primary educa- 2022c). Moreover, shortages in low-income tors has been reported in countries such as the countries are aggravated by a reported higher Netherlands (9,100), France (4,000), and Japan incidence of teacher absenteeism, unqualified (2,558). Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and teachers, and poor education infrastructures Sweden consistently encounter significant short- (Chaudhury et al. 2006; Dryden-Peterson 2011). ages of teachers (NLS 2023). It is estimated that there are at least 55,000 vacant positions and Immigrant teachers are extremely concen- 270,000 underqualified positions in the United trated in five HICs and represent a significant States (Nguyen, Lam, and Bruno 2022); similar resource for national education systems. As shortages are reported in Canada (Kshatri 2024) with trends in skilled migration more broadly, a and the United Kingdom (NFER 2024). small share of HICs collectively accommodate the majority of migrant teachers. Specifically, the United States (50.8 percent), Germany (9.1 percent), France (7.4 percent), Canada (5.6 percent), and Australia (2.7 percent) account 1  While there are diverse ways to define teacher for more than 75 percent of primary and secondary shortages, Sustainable Development Goal Target 4c immigrant teachers (figure S2.3). The share of on teachers identifies shortages in quantitative (e.g., number of vacancies, teachers leaving the profession) immigrant teachers out of the national immi- and qualitative terms (teachers with sufficient qualifica- grant population is often high—roughly 5 percent tions and training). A key indicator is the pupil-to–trained in most of these countries—which is above the teacher ratio, which measures the ratio of students to average teacher share of the working-age popu- those teachers holding the minimum required qualifica- tion. For additional details see UNESCO (2024). lation in OECD countries of 3 percent (OECD 48 S potlight 2 :   I nternational migration of ed u cation w orkers 49 F I G U R E S 2 . 1   The highest ratios of pupils to trained teachers are found in Sub-Saharan Africa and South/Southeast Asia a. Primary education b. Secondary education Students per Students per teacher trained teacher trained 250 250 0 0 IBRD 48586 | JANUARY 2025 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from UNESCO Institute for Statistics 2024. F I G U R E S 2 . 2   By 2030, most teachers will be needed in Sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, but needs will persist in Europe and North America as well Sub-Saharian Afri a Southern Asia Southeastern Asia Europe & Northern Ameri a Primary edu ation Se ondary edu ation Northern Afri a & Western Afri a Latin Ameri a & the aribbean Eastern Asia entral Asia O eania 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 % of global re ruitment needs by 2030 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from UNESCO 2024. 2023). Immigrant teachers are a great resource for States, Nova Scotia in Canada, and New South these education systems. This is particularly true Wales in Australia (Bay 2023; Funk 2023). for rural areas, where teacher shortages are often concentrated: several states focus on attracting Teaching remains a predominantly female immigrant teachers to such areas to fill staffing profession, and this is true for migrant teachers needs, such as the Midwestern states in the United as well. Globally, women make up 94 percent of preprimary, 68 percent of primary, and 55 percent 50 S potlight 2 :   I nternational migration of ed u cation w orkers F I G U R E S 2 . 3   English- and French-speaking countries have the highest share of immigrant teachers, with the notable exception of Germany Germany, 9.12% Fran e, 7.36% Romania, Denmark, hile, 1.46% 1.40% 1.38% Netherlands, 2.48% ze h Sweden, Republi , Austria, 1.26% 1.15% 1.02% anada, 5.62% Switzerland, Finland, Slovakia, Norway, Belgium, 1.74% 1.24% 0.74% 0.70% 0.69% Latvia, 0.29% Slovenia, New 0.28% Zealand, Ireland, Luxembourg, 0.07% Estonia, yprus, USA, 50.79% Australia, 2.69% Portugal, 1.50% Hungary, 1.17% 0.59% 0.57% 0.18% 0.12% Malta, 0.06% Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from OECD 2010. Note: The figure displays the distribution of immigrant teachers across OECD countries. of secondary teachers (UNESCO 2024). Women teaching certifications require three to four years make up an increasing share of high-skilled of full-time university study combined with teaching global migration flows,2 and teacher migration is experience. Additional requirements often vary no exception. Comparable to findings in several by state or province. Teaching requirements also national and regional studies, a 2014 global survey often include language skills, which contributes to reported that 69 percent of migrant teachers are English- or French-speaking countries having the women, with the majority migrating to pursue their highest share of teacher immigration (UNESCO own professional goals (Caravatti et al. 2014). 2019). Many countries offer schemes for skills recognition: for instance, Australia provides skill Training requirements and recognition of assessment and recognition services to those who teaching qualifications obtained abroad is a wish to immigrate and teach on a skilled migration major challenge and an important driver of visa.3 Canada and the United States employ orga- teachers’ migration patterns. Training require- nizations like World Education Services to evaluate ments for teachers can be extensive. In countries and equate foreign qualifications to national like Australia, Canada, and the United States, 2  In the years 2000–20, the rate of migration of tertiary-educated female migrants increased by 3   AITSL (Australian Institute for Teaching and School 160 percent, faster than that of tertiary-educated male Leadership), “Teaching in Australia” web page, https:// migrants and lower-skilled female migrants (World Bank www.aitsl.edu.au/migrate-to-australia/teaching-in- 2023). australia (accessed August 1, 2024). S potlight 2 :   I nternational migration of ed u cation w orkers 51 standards.4 These services are crucial for migrant from Jamaica, which in turn is ready to recruit from teachers to validate credentials, meet national Ghana, India, Nigeria, and the Philippines starting certification requirements, and understand if they in 2025 (The Gleaner 2024). need to undergo additional training. Origin countries, meanwhile, can attempt Destination countries have implemented to retain teachers with financial incentives, various policies to attract teachers including improved working conditions, and professional financial incentives, streamlined visa approval development opportunities. For example, Ghana and qualification recognition, and tailored offers a 15 percent teacher retention premium to recruitment programs. The United Arab Emir- increase the salaries of teachers working in rural ates and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries and underserved areas (Government of Ghana provide attractive salary packages, tax-free 2020). However, it can be challenging to retain income, and additional benefits such as housing teachers without significant investments in their allowances and health insurance to attract working conditions and development opportuni- teachers from abroad (Education Basket 2024). In ties; this remains a first-order goal for many origin some cases, certification requirements are waived countries struggling to retain teachers. entirely. For example, the Registrar of the National Teaching Council of Ghana reported that over Origin countries can also encourage return and 16,000 Ghanaian teachers applied to work for the circular migration to benefit from the extensive Department of Education in the United Kingdom in professional development that teachers expe- early 2023, and 10,000 applicants with Ghanaian rience abroad. Migration represents an invaluable teaching licenses were certified without any opportunity for a teacher’s professional develop- further assessment (BBC News 2023; GhanaWeb ment. In one global survey of migrant teachers, 2024). Recruitment programs such as the UK Inter- 99 percent reported that working abroad posi- national Teacher Recruitment Programme directly tively affected their instructional practice; and recruit foreign teachers and assist with the visa more than 65 percent reported that teaching and migration process (UK Department of Educa- abroad significantly improved their competences, tion 2020). expertise, tools, and soft skills (Caravatti et al. 2014). Thus, return migrant teachers bring with These unilateral migration policies can result them valuable skills to contribute to the educa- in a negative “domino effect” of teacher short- tion sector in their origin country. ages. For example, the United Kingdom recruits teachers from South Africa, while South Africa Given the concurrent teacher shortages in recruits teachers from Zimbabwe.5 Similarly, the countries of all income levels, Global Skill United States and United Kingdom recruit teachers Partnerships (GSPs) can be a complemen- tary policy tool to coordinate in expanding high-quality teacher training for domestic and 4   The World Education Services Gateway Program works with partners to actively identify qualified individ- international markets. These concurrent skill uals educated in Afghanistan, Eritrea, Iraq, Syrian Arab shortages highlight the importance of developing Republic, Türkiye, Ukraine, and República Bolivariana a cooperative framework for skills investment to de Venezuela as potential participants in the program. 5   Some 35,000 teachers reportedly left Zimbabwe for Botswana, South Africa, and the United Kingdom the Zimbabwe education system (De Villiers and Weda during the crisis years of the 2000s, seriously affecting 2017). 52 S potlight 2 :   I nternational migration of ed u cation w orkers prevent uncoordinated teacher migration contrib- track programs may not be successful in coun- uting to the depletion of human capital in sending tries where poor infrastructure and low absorption countries, which often have fewer economic capacities structurally lead to low teacher reten- and institutional resources to cope with teacher tion. GSPs can be a part of national development shortages. GSPs can allow for international coor- strategies aimed at increasing salaries, benefits, dination on high-quality teacher training with working conditions, and professional development curricula designed to reflect emerging needs in opportunities for teachers. both origin and destination countries. Of course, as with health care (see discussion in Spotlight 1), they must be complemented by a holistic approach to development in the education sector. Home 2 The principles of Global Skill Partnerships 54 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N of sectors and occupations of training, selection 2.1 GSPs: Definition of the trainees among candidates and migrants among the trainees, allocation of costs between and elements the governments and employers, and the legal features of migration pathways such as visa cate- A Global Skill Partnership (GSP) is a bilateral or gories. The goal is to ensure that origin countries multilateral agreement that links human capital can share the economic gains from training and expansion and training with international labor mobility, that destination countries benefit from mobility in a way that is financially sustainable inflows of skilled workers, and that the system is and mutually beneficial for both the migrant scalable and financially sustainable (Clemens origin and destination country. Coined originally 2015). Organizations use a variety of names for by the Center for Global Development, in a GSP, such partnerships, many of which have similar the origin and destination countries jointly decide core features (box 2.1). on and implement the main features of the agree- ment (Clemens 2015; Clemens, Dempster, and In a GSP, training occurs primarily in the origin Gough 2019). These features include the choice country and includes people who will stay B O X 2 . 1   Some skill mobility and training programs and terms Skills mobility partnerships. Coined by the Interna- arrangement that provides the framework for dialogue tional Organization for Migration, this model presents and practical cooperation to address relevant migra- similar features to those of Global Skill Partnerships. It tion and mobility issues of mutual concern. This may was initially defined as a bilateral or multilateral labor or may not involve any skill development or certifica- mobility agreement that includes skills training and tion components.1 recognition components, with formalized coopera- Talent partnerships. Introduced by the European tion and multistakeholder involvement (IOM, n.d.). It Union (EU) as part of its 2020 Pact on Migration and includes several conditions and essential elements, Asylum, talent partnerships aim to facilitate strategic such as “the importance of a whole-of-government cooperation between partner countries to identify and approach; taking into account the perspectives and match skilled workers with EU countries’ labor market development interests of all countries involved; migra- needs. They may target various skill levels; facilitate tion procedures and regulations, social aspects of circular, temporary, or long-term migration; and/or employment and mobility, and investing in skills devel- provide opportunities for study, work, or training in opment in countries of origin” (IOM 2024, 4). the EU.2 Mobility partnerships. As defined by the European Commission, a mobility partnership is a cooperation   European Commission, Migration and Home Affairs, “Mobility Partnership” web page, https://home-affairs. 1 ec.europa.eu/networks/european-migration-network-emn/emn-asylum-and-migration-glossary/glossary/ mobility-partnership_en. 2   European Commission, Migration and Home Affairs, “Talent Partnerships” web page, https://home-affairs. ec.europa.eu/policies/migration-and-asylum/legal-migration-and-integration/talent-partnerships_en. 2 :   T he principles of G lobal S kill P artnerships 55 home as well as those who plan to emigrate. There are three defining features of GSPs In this dual-track approach, with “home” and (figure 2.2): “away” tracks, the nonmigrants also benefit from the training system setup. Because only a subset 1. Training must address skill shortages in of trainees migrates (the away track), the supply both origin and destination economies with of skilled workers in the origin country increases, proper skills recognition. While some compo- leading to brain gain. This is in sharp contrast to nents of training and skill certification may have brain drain, which is generally associated with the to be tailored independently for the home and emigration of the highly skilled and a net loss of away tracks, the core of the training should be human capital (figure 2.1). The training programs applicable to all workers. Ensuring that skills are generally designed and implemented jointly training matches the demand in both labor with experts from the destination country so that markets requires close collaboration with the the GSPs potentially lead to improvements in the private sector in both countries throughout all overall quality of the education system, including stages of the program, as well as a skill certifica- technical and vocational education and training. tion process that is recognized by each country. There are often strong incentives for firms and 2. Firms and governments in the destination governments in the destination country to engage country are responsible for most of the in this mechanism—they can benefit from lower training and migration costs. Firms in the training costs in the origin country, and the part- destination country have a strong incentive to nership allows for greater coordination and access contribute, given that the GSP will be expanding to existing recruitment and training systems. F I G U R E 2 . 1   GSPs increase human capital and skills in both origin and destination countries Before GSP After GSP Existing emigration Skilled workers at destination GSP away tra k Skilled workers at origin GSP home tra k Note: GSP = Global Skill Partnership. 56 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N F I G U R E 2 . 2   There are three defining features of Global Skill Partnerships Training must address skill 1 shortages in both origin and destination countries with proper skills recognition Firms and governments of the 2 destination country have the primary responsibility for financing training at origin Migration must occur through a 3 legal pathway that is appropriate, predictable, and timely their workforce and address the skill shortages to migrants, their employers, and their commu- they face. Destination country governments nities in both origin and destination countries. also have an incentive to contribute, as they Thus, legal and formal migration is a necessary benefit from economywide spillovers and condition for any bilateral migration partner- increased tax revenues when the skilled labor ship, including a GSP. Legal pathways ensure force expands. Financial constraints are among safe and orderly migration and enable migrant the main challenges lower- and middle-income workers to realize their potential productivity by countries face in expanding their educa- allowing the recognition of their credentials and tion and training capacity. Thus, even though qualifications. Appropriate income and social origin country governments may be able to welfare taxes will be collected, helping fiscal fund certain components of the program, their balances and expenditures. Under formal and overall contributions will generally be limited. legal migration, governments implement safe- In short, substantial financing from destination guards that protect the wages and working country governments and firms is necessary to conditions of both migrants and native workers ensure the long-term financial sustainability of and maximize the benefits of migration for all. GSPs. International organizations and devel- These pathways must be predictable and timely opment partners may be able to contribute to avoid risk of delayed migration and brain financially, especially in the initial stages of the waste. programs and pilots. GSPs mitigate concerns regarding brain drain 3. Migration must occur through legal path- as they increase the supply of skilled workers ways and appropriate visa categories in in both origin and destination countries. This a predictable and timely manner. Undocu- feature allows GSPs to stand out among other mented migration generates irreparable harm bilateral migration and mobility agreements. 2 :   T he principles of G lobal S kill P artnerships 57 Many other programs include features that origin country, respectively. Figure 2.3a reflects enhance the mobility of workers, but these workers the pre-GSP situation. The cream area represents either already have the needed skills or they are the high-skilled German labor force and the expected to go through training after they arrive. orange and brown areas together represent the In most cases, emigration of high-skilled people high-skilled Ghanaian population, a portion of generates gains such as increased remittances, whom (the brown area) already migrated to and knowledge transfer, and an economic boost from are working in Germany. Figure 2.3b reflects the the entrepreneurial activities of return migrants. At situation after a bilateral GSP is implemented. The the same, high-skilled emigration—especially if it outer circle represents the Ghanaians trained is permanent—creates concerns regarding brain under the GSP: the orange group stayed in Ghana drain in origin countries. This concern centers on (home track), and the brown group emigrated to how a decline in human capital negatively affects Germany (away track). The GSP program therefore development outcomes, especially in the delivery increases the total number of high-skilled Ghana- of key services such as health care and educa- ians in both Ghana and Germany. The overall stock tion (see Spotlights 1 and 2). In such situations, of human capital in Ghana expands compared to managed and bilateral migration schemes should the pre-GSP level, compensating for some of the be designed to reduce these concerns. Public and loss due to the initial migration. In addition to the political perceptions of brain drain might hinder direct expansion of the skilled labor force resulting their implementation. from training, GSPs contribute to the improvement of the quality and capacity of training institutions in At their core, GSPs are skill development and the origin country, further increasing the long-term training programs that provide unique and availability of skilled workers. effective solutions to skill shortages in labor markets. This is demonstrated in figure 2.3 with GSPs help origin countries maximize the devel- a hypothetical example of Germany and Ghana, opment gains of migration amid the emerging a high-income destination and a middle-income global competition for skilled workers. As emphasized in the previous chapter, one of the great challenges of the 21st century will be the rapid expansion of elderly populations across the F I G U R E 2 . 3   GSPs reduce concerns around brain drain in origin countries globe, especially in high- and upper-middle-in- come countries. The competition for younger a. Before GSP b. After GSP workers, especially high-skilled workers, has already become fierce. Many of these potential younger workers are in low- and lower-middle-in- come countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. The increased push and pull forces will increase migration flows. However, in the absence of formal entry channels and appropriate skill levels, a large share of these flows are likely to pass through undocumented and informal channels. High-skilled Germans This process increases migrant despair, creates High-skilled Ghanaians at home High-skilled Ghanaians in Germany strong political opposition to migration flows in Note: GSP = Global Skill Partnership. destination countries, and reduces the benefits of 58 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N migration for everyone. GSPs reverse these trends, Extensive planning and dialogue are necessary maximizing the gains for migrants and their origin to bring public and private stakeholders on board. and destination communities. It is generally more efficient and cost-efficient to train potential migrant workers in the origin rather GSPs are only appropriate for sectors that than the destination country, making the GSP more face large-scale demand in both origin and attractive for the employers facing shortages. destination countries, and they are often However, this process requires longer-term invest- most appropriate for middle-skill occupa- ment in setting up training facilities, skill certification tions, though they may also be suitable for that is mutually recognized, and legal migration other skill levels. As the first defining feature pathways. Many firms lack experience with over- highlights, GSPs must target occupations and skills seas recruitment and will need assurance that their that are in demand in both the origin and desti- investments will result in the identification of workers nation country. These may include, for example, with the right skill sets and ability to migrate in a construction workers, medical workers, and occu- timely manner. Appropriate training and smooth pations linked to the green transition (box 1.2). In migration processes require coordination with addition, GSPs may be most appropriate for jobs the relevant ministries and government agencies that require specialized skills but do not require that oversee training and migration in both origin extensive investment in terms of training time or and destination countries. These agencies must resources. If the skills require many years of costly be part of different stages of the GSP to ensure training, it may be difficult to convince employers buy-in. This level of coordination is challenging and to fund training. Furthermore, such postgrad- time-consuming, but necessary to ensure that GSPs uate training programs will require educational can achieve their goals—for example, to provide entry requirements, and qualified candidates are assurance to firms that skills training will meet their likely to be in short supply. This will reduce the needs through certification, and that legal path- benefits of the GSP for the origin economy since ways are available and attainable for migrants. some of those workers will choose the away track (see discussion of entry requirements in chapter Other elements of GSPs—such as the type 3). Thus, GSPs in high-skill sectors must achieve of migration pathways or the content and long-term financial commitments and place suffi- delivery of training—can depend on the cient emphasis on strengthening training systems context and objectives, and thus can vary for the domestic economy and the home track across programs. For instance, GSPs can to avoid exacerbating brain drain. These steps involve either permanent or temporary migration may be easier to achieve for middle-skill occu- programs. Training can range in duration from a pations where there is a large supply of qualified few months to a few years, can be administered training candidates and a reasonable cost for through national training systems or independent training. GSPs may also be suitable for tradition- training providers, and can require that partic- ally lower-skill sectors, such as agricultural work, ipants enter with varying levels of education or where training in technical, socioemotional, and experience. Training may incorporate on-the-job language skills can improve graduates’ employ- training, as well as language and soft skill compo- ment prospects both at home and abroad. nents, and these can differ according to the labor market needs for the home and away tracks. Each GSPs are financially sustainable and scalable of these design features of GSPs is discussed in when the private sector is closely involved. more detail in chapter 3. 2 :   T he principles of G lobal S kill P artnerships 59 Belgium, Morocco, and Tunisia (box 2.4); Part- 2.2 Examples of GSPs nership Approaches for Development-Oriented Vocational Training and Labour Migration (PAM) in and other similar metal processing between Germany and Viet Nam mobility and skill (box 2.5); and a GSP in nursing between Germany partnerships and the Philippines (box 2.6). It took each of these programs several years With some exceptions, existing GSPs have to move from the design to the implemen- been small-scale pilots, and they provide tation phase, reflecting the effort and time valuable lessons regarding how to build needed for proper planning and stakeholder successful, sizable, and sustainable GSPs. dialogue. Additional GSPs are currently going The largest existing example of a fully scaled GSP through the design and consultation stages. For is the Australia Pacific Training Coalition (APTC), example, the Labor Mobility Partnership (LaMP) a program between Australia, Pacific Island is a think tank and policy advocacy organization countries, and Timor-Leste, which has trained that has worked on the design and formation of and certified over 20,000 graduates across many migration partnerships. LaMP has various various sectors since its inception in 2007 (see GSPs in the design stage, including one between table 2.1 and box 2.2). Another GSP is the Project Colombia and Spain in elderly care (Geronimo, Addressing Labour Shortages through Innovative Zambonino, and Saucedo Huerta 2023). As Labour Migration (PALIM) between Belgium and another example, Germany, through the German Morocco, which trained 120 Moroccan youth in Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ), is in the information and communication technology the process of designing a GSP in construction (ICT) sector, 15 percent of whom have job offers with Senegal and Ghana in partnership with local in Belgium and are preparing to migrate (box 2.3). technical and vocational training providers.1 Many new GSPs are currently being piloted Beyond government-led agreements, many around the world. These new pilot programs are GSP-like models have been implemented inde- already generating important lessons for future pendently by the private sector, reflecting the programs. The main push for GSPs came when sound economic principles of this approach. the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Many multinational companies regularly choose Migration, adopted by the majority of United to conduct training overseas due to lower costs Nations member states in 2018, specifically high- and the availability of potential employees with lighted GSPs as an important model to promote the needed backgrounds. For example, Porsche bilateral skill development. Similarly, the European has training centers in China, Mexico, the Philip- Union (EU) Migration Partnership Facility aims at pines, and South Africa that feed into the local promoting these schemes to strengthen cooper- and global workforce—both in Germany and in ation on migration between EU member states and priority partner countries. It is in this context that various new GSP pilots have been initiated over the past few years. Some of the examples 1  Migration Partnership Facility, “Skills Partner- ships between Senegal/Ghana and Germany” web are the Program Towards a Holistic Approach page, https://www.migrationpartnershipfacility. to Labour Migration Governance and Labour eu/mpf-projects/52-skills-partnerships-betwee Mobility in North Africa (THAMM-Enabel) between n-senegal-ghana-and-germany/preview. 60 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N T A B L E 2 . 1   Examples of Global Skill Partnerships Project Years Countries Sectors Current status Australia 2007– Australia, 9 Built environment, Fully scaled: Over 20,000 full-qualification Pacific present Pacific Island community services, graduates since inception; 8% have Training countries, engineering and electro- migrated to work in Australia since 2019a Coalition Timor-Leste technology, hospitality (APTC) and tourism, education, agriculture, business PALIM 2018–21 Belgium, Morocco Information and commu- Pilot completed: 120 trained; migration was nication technology stalled by COVID-19; 20 have or are plan- ning to migrateb Youth, 2017–21 Germany, Construction Pilot stopped: Halted due to lack of Employ- Kosovo harmonization of German and Kosovar ment, and qualification standards; exploring potential Skills (YES) to improve vocational training in Kosovo to train for both markets c PAM 2021– Germany, Metal processing Pilot under implementation: 50 people June Viet Nam were selected, 25 of whom were to be 2024 supported to migrate to Germany as skilled workers; only 12 were able to qualify for migration to Germany, as most of the students did not acquire sufficient German language skillsd GSP in 2019– Germany, the Nursing and geriatric care Pilot under implementation: Training was Nursing present Philippines initiated, and the first batch migrated in between 2023 with a second batch to migrate in Germany 2024; expansion of a fully private sector– and the financed GSP in the Philippines is in Philippines preparation, as is replication of the model in Mexico and other countriesd THAMM - 2020– Belgium, Construction and indus- Pilot under implementation: Originally Enabel present Morocco, Tunisia trial sectors designed as a GSP, this project now focuses on fostering cooperation between national employment agencies, upskilling of training systems, and helping workers with job matching, interview preparation, language, health, and safety training; as of May 2024, the project enabled employ- ment of 87 workers in Tunisia and of 23 Moroccan and Tunisian workers in Belgiume Note: GSP = Global Skill Partnership; PALIM = Pilot Project Addressing Labour Shortages through Innovative Labour Migration; PAM = Partnership Approaches for Development-Oriented Vocational Training and Labour Migration; THAMM = Towards a Holistic Approach to Labour Migration Governance and Labour Mobility in North Africa. a. Information provided by APTC in May 2024. b. Rodriguez (2023); information provided by Enabel and the Moroccan National Agency for Promotion of Employment and Skills (ANAPEC) in May 2024. c. CGD (2021c). d. Information provided by the German Agency for International Cooperation in September 2024. e. Information provided by Enabel and ANAPEC in May 2024. 2 :   T he principles of G lobal S kill P artnerships 61 B O X 2 . 2   APTC T he Australia Pacific Training Coalition (APTC) is the Australian government’s flagship technical and vocational education and training program in the The APTC has evolved in important ways over its life- time: l Increased support for labor mobility. One of Pacific region. It was first conceived at the 36th Pacific the intentions of the APTC from the beginning was Islands Forum Meeting in 2005 and established in to train potential migrants for the Australian labor 2007. Its initial mission was to increase the supply of market. However, migration rates were initially workers with vocational skills for both domestic and meager, at only around 1.2 percent in 2014. This international markets. The APTC provides training and reflected various challenges, including a lack of Australian credentials in nine Pacific Island countries alignment of training with Australian demand, and Timor-Leste in seven main sectors—built envi- priorities of the visa regime, lack of engagement ronment (including construction), community services with Australian employers, and lack of support (including elderly care), engineering and electrotech- for migrants with the migration process and costs nology, hospitality and tourism, education, agriculture, (Chand, Clemens, and Dempster 2021). After the and business. It is mostly funded by the Australian launch of its third funding stage in 2018, the APTC Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, though some increased its support for graduates’ migration to co-investments come from Pacific Island govern- Australia and adapted its programs to be more ments, industry associations, employers, and trainees aligned with Australian visa programs, including themselves. Since its inception, it has produced over better coordination with the Australian Pacific 20,000 graduates with full qualifications (figure B2.2.1). Labour Facility, which works with origin countries to Additionally, it offers various microcredentials and manage labor mobility through the Pacific-Australia short courses. The APTC’s graduate tracer surveys Labour Mobility scheme. Since 2019, 8 percent of consistently find employer satisfaction rates of over graduates have moved to Australia, according to 95 percent in terms of quality of graduates and tech- data provided by the APTC. nical skills (APTC 2022). F I G U R E B 2 . 2 . 1   The APTC has produced over 20,000 full qualification graduates since 2008 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: Data provided by Australia Pacific Training Coalition (APTC), May 2024. (continued) 62 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N B O X 2 . 2   APTC (continued) l Shift from “enclave” delivery to local training l Reduced cost per graduate and increased system strengthening. In its first decade, the co-investments. The APTC costs per graduate APTC mostly operated through country offices were initially high, at over $A 25,000 between 2011 and campuses within partner training institutions to and 2015 (APTC 2019). By 2019, this had fallen to deliver only Australian-accredited courses. During $A 18,282, and continued to fall to $A  14,829 this time, there was a gradual movement toward in 2022 (APTC 2022). This cost reduction was deepening engagement with local training partners. achieved through a combination of measures, Stage 3 included a strategic shift to increase training according to information provided by the APTC. strengthening and to become more embedded First, fixed costs required to set up training in local institutions. This has involved introducing programs and facilities were paid off as the scale new courses and strengthening existing ones with increased. Second, an effort was made to increase improved curricula and certificates, training trainers, cost sharing. The APTC is primarily funded by the providing new equipment and facility upgrades, Australian Development Agency, and there was and increasing inclusivity for students with disabil- an effort to increase contributions from benefiting ities (APTC 2022). This was intended to improve stakeholders, including employers that helped to development impact, sustainability, scalability, and cover tuition fees or made in-kind contributions of cost-effectiveness, as costs per graduate were facilities and equipment. Third, costs were reduced recognized to be high in part because many trainers through better integration with local training were Australian expatriates (APTC 2021). Stronger providers and hiring of local trainers as opposed partnerships were also intended to help in better to foreign ones. Finally, part of this reduced cost tailoring training to local demand, reflecting the per graduate reflects an increase in the provision concern that some graduates were struggling to of short courses and microcredentials. find employment (Curtain and Howes 2021b). other countries where they have manufacturing in response to demographic and labor market facilities and other operations (Porsche News- demands, and provide different advantages in room 2015, 2019). Seafarer training centers in different contexts. In some of these non-GSP the Philippines produce graduates for the inter- cases, training occurs in the destination through national cruise lines and shipping industries. formal education, apprenticeships, or internships, Foreign-owned medical schools train nurses and after which migrants return home or remain in doctors for international markets in many coun- the destination country permanently or tempo- tries. European-owned football academies in rarily (table 2.2).2 In other programs, training Africa produce players for professional leagues in both African and European countries (box 2.7). These examples present important lessons for 2   Some of the many such programs implemented in recent years are Enhancing Tunisian Youth Employability through GSPs and demonstrate the importance of private Professional Internships in Belgian Companies, High sector engagement to achieve scale. Opportunity for Mediterranean Executives Recruitment (HOMERe), Y-Med between Italy and various North African GSPs are not the only type of skilled mobility countries, Accessing Overseas Employment Opportunities for Moroccan Youth with Germany, and Young Generation program. Skill-focused mobility programs arise as Change Agents between Spain and Morocco. 2 :   T he principles of G lobal S kill P artnerships 63 B O X 2 . 3   PALIM T he Project Addressing Labour Shortages Through Innovative Labour Migration (PALIM) pilot was launched in 2019 as a Global Skill Part- Some of the many important lessons learned through PALIM include the following: l Building institutional capacity and trust nership to facilitate training and migration in the between stakeholders takes time. Aligning stake- information and communication technology (ICT) holders and keeping them consulted on program sector between Belgium and Morocco. It was imple- design and implementation is time-intensive but mented by the Belgian development agency, Enabel, necessary. Partners need to be chosen strategi- with cofunding from the European Union. Belgian cally. The true impact of a pilot program extends and Moroccan public employment service agen- well beyond the number of workers trained and cies worked closely to identify job market needs and moved during the program, and includes the interested firms in both countries. Training programs gradual development of institutional capacity, were developed with public-private collaboration. The quality training systems, and trust among stake- trainees were unemployed Moroccan college grad- holders. In this sense, stakeholder cooperation uates who were non-ICT majors. From late 2019 to is one of the most important outcomes of a pilot mid-2020, 120 candidates were selected and trained project, as it facilitates the independent continua- in a seven-month program that included ICT-specific tion of programs without the support or finance of modules, soft skills, English classes, and information development organizations. on work and life in Belgium. Unfortunately, migration to Belgium was stalled by COVID-19, followed by a l Producing quality candidates for the away reduction in interest among Belgian firms to recruit track can be challenging in higher-skill sectors Moroccan graduates. As a result, by late 2023 only such as ICT. In PALIM, the entry-level experience two people had migrated, with others in the process of of trainees was low, and training occurred for only migrating. The program was successful in producing seven months. Belgian firms were not fully aware of graduates for the Moroccan market, with 80 percent the decision to train only non-ICT majors, and this employed domestically (Rodriguez 2023). lowered the attractiveness of graduates (Rodriguez 2022). For this reason, Global Skill Partnerships PALIM is notable for its extensive pre-implementation should either include the proper intensity and dura- stakeholder planning and engagement. This included tion of training, or target middle-skill occupations peer-to-peer exchanges between Belgian and for which training can reasonably be provided with Moroccan employers’ federations, inviting Belgian firms less intensity. Alternatively, the eligibility require- to participate in job recruitment events in Morocco, ments can be increased, but this may reduce the and bringing public employment and technical and attractiveness of participating for the origin country vocational education and training institutions together (see further discussion in chapter 3). with other stakeholders for meetings and workshops to discuss the details of training design. 64 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N B O X 2 . 4   THAMM-Enabel T owards a Holistic Approach to Labour Migra- tion Governance and Labour Mobility in North Africa (THAMM) links various North African and to a shift toward recruiting Moroccans and Tunisians from these institutions and supporting them with job matching, interview preparation, language training, European countries to increase cooperation for and the health and safety training required in Belgium. mutually beneficial legal migration and job place- In addition, to facilitate the matching of young Tunisian ment. THAMM is funded by the European Union graduates with Tunisian employers, THAMM-Enabel and the German Ministry for Economic Cooperation developed and implemented technical and soft skills and Development (BMZ). Various subcomponents training programs developed in cooperation with of THAMM follow different models. One of them— national employment and training agencies and THAMM-Enabel, between Belgium, Morocco, and Tunisian firms. In total, by May 2024, THAMM-Enabel Tunisia—is intended to be a Global Skill Partnership allowed the employment of 87 youth in Tunisia and of by engaging with public employment services in each 23 Moroccan and Tunisian youth in Belgium. country to support professional training in Tunisia and Among the many important lessons learned through Morocco for employment domestically or in Belgium. the THAMM-Enabel experience are the following: In Morocco, it directly builds on the experience of the Project Addressing Labour Shortages Through Inno- l Achieving strong private sector buy-in is chal- vative Labour Migration (PALIM) (see box 2.3), with lenging, but this is essential for programs to the integration of two additional partners: the Office become sustainable in the long term. Firms for Vocational Training and Employment Promotion in need to be confident in training quality over the Morocco and the public employment service agency long term if they are going to finance training up in Belgium’s Wallonia region. This process required front. Destination firms must be involved from the significant effort and consultations to clarify the scope start, including in the selection of training providers of the project and to assign roles and responsibilities and entry requirements, and in curriculum design. (Hooper and Sohst 2024). l Implementers must learn to navigate complex Public employment service agencies, employers, institutions that govern migration pathways and training providers were brought together to and labor market access. From the beginning, identify common skill needs in origin and destina- it is important to understand the complex institu- tion countries. The result was a focus on training of tions in each country. For example, some regions in technicians to work in construction and industrial Belgium have fast-track visa categories for priority sectors. Existing training programs were evaluated occupations and sectors. Collaboration and coor- in Morocco and Tunisia. The evaluation concluded dination with migration agencies in program design that existing training courses in both countries were can help with labor market access and overall sufficiently comparable with those in Belgium. This led program success. Sources: Information provided by Enabel and ANAPEC in May 2024; and consultations with representatives from Enabel and ANAPEC in May 2024. 2 :   T he principles of G lobal S kill P artnerships 65 B O X 2 . 5   PAM T he Partnership Approaches Development-Oriented Vocational Training and Labour Migration (PAM) pilot between Viet Nam and for become metal-cutting technicians. The technical and vocational training has been complemented by in-company training phases at enterprises, a German Germany is training 50 workers in metal processing, language course, soft skills training, and transcultural soft skills, and intercultural awareness for employ- awareness-raising sessions. The program modified ment in Germany and Viet Nam. Implemented by the an existing 18-month vocational training in metal German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ), processing in Viet Nam to align with the German the program aims for half the workers to stay in Viet qualifications system (GIZ 2020). This enables the Nam and the other half to migrate to Germany (An certification obtained in Viet Nam to be recognized et al. 2023). Migrant workers will undergo B2-level in Germany. intensive German language training, while those who The estimated cost per trainee in Viet Nam is €20,000, will stay home will receive basic German language which is expected to drop to less than €10,000 after a training (GIZ 2021). year and a half of the project. Had the training been In line with Germany’s development assistance for conducted in Germany, it is estimated that the cost Viet Nam, PAM seeks to improve the latter’s technical per trainee would be around €35,000–€50,000 (An and vocational education and training system in these et al. 2023). However, future employers from Germany occupations. Activities are conducted in cooperation are yet to be identified. Future training costs, which with LILAMA 2 International Technology College and are currently borne by the project, and project admin- private sector enterprises in Viet Nam and Germany. istration and transportation costs are expected to be Fifty youth have been trained at the LILAMA 2 shouldered in part or in full by the employers. College, according to international standards, to occurs in the origin country, but is available only the private sector at origin, and tailor training to to migrants. An example is Germany’s Triple Win domestic demand. program, which seeks to recruit nurses to work in Germany from countries that are determined to GSPs offer great advantages for develop- not face nursing shortages. Nurses with baseline ment impact and have the potential to scale, levels of training and experience complete addi- and the next generations of GSPs will need tional medical and German language training in to strive for scalability throughout design and the origin country before migrating to complete implementation. This requires consulting with the their certification and begin work in Germany right stakeholders, alignment with existing migra- (GIZ 2024b). Similarly, the EU Talent Pool seeks tion and skills training frameworks, and—in many to facilitate migration of already qualified individ- cases—working through existing national training uals. Relative to these models, GSPs have two and migration systems. large advantages. First, they harness external financing to increase the supply of skilled workers and quality of training systems at origin. Second, because training occurs at origin, they are able to integrate with local training systems, engage with 66 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N B O X 2 . 6   Germany’s GSP in nursing with the Philippines and Mexico T his program is set up as a collaboration across nursing hospitals in origin and destination coun- tries. It is managed and coordinated by the German qualifications after migration to Germany. The home track, meanwhile, has access to the components of training that are not specific to the German market, Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) with including many of the specialized modules and lab financial support from Bertelsmann Stiftung and training—thus directly benefiting the Filipino health the German Federal Ministry of Health. The central system. This program is still in an early stage: the first partner in Germany is the University Hospital Bonn, cohort of graduates migrated in 2023, and the second which draws on its extensive experience in upgrading cohort will migrate in 2024. foreign nursing staff and supporting cultural integra- A similar program has been developed in Mexico, tion. They design training content in consultation with in which four-year nursing graduates are offered partner universities in the Philippines (Northwestern an extra year of professional and language training University Laoag and Baliuag University). They also tailored to practicing in Germany. This program is train teaching staff in part through temporary place- in partnership with the Universidad Autónoma de ments at the University Hospital Bonn and other Chihuahua. In the long term, GIZ hopes to integrate partners. Recruitment and migration comply with fair this training into the regular degree course as in recruitment standards set by the International Orga- the Philippines, thus becoming a full GSP that offers nization for Migration and the International Labour training opportunities to the home track as well. Organization. These GSPs are based upon the cooperation and The program offers specialized training to nursing trust established through previous programs to recruit students on an away track, while providing access foreign skilled nurses to practice in Germany. Specif- to relevant components of this training for a home ically, they build on Germany’s Triple Win program, track. In the Philippines, nursing is a four-year degree. which provides supplementary technical and After two years of general training, the nursing Global language training to highly qualified nurses who are Skill Partnership (GSP) offers students the opportu- selected to work in Germany, and which has brought nity to enter an away track with specialized training over 6,000 registered nurses to Germany from various during their third and fourth years, followed by an countries around the world since 2013. These nurses additional semester. These students receive supple- do well in national registration examinations and mentary trainings designed to meet the requirements employer satisfaction is high. In this way, Triple Win of the German health sector—including lab training was a stepping stone to the GSPs, by building confi- with modern equipment provided by donors—and dence among German hospitals in the competence of acquire expertise in areas such as pediatric and nurses who received supplementary training abroad geriatric nursing that are not part of the Filipino curric- and familiarizing German hospitals with the process ulum. They also receive intercultural and language of hiring and integrating foreign nurses. training. All of this allows for swift recognition of nursing Source: Global Skills Partnerships, “Internationally Coordinated Practice-Oriented Learning” web page, https:// global-skills-partnerships.de/en/partner-2/. 2 :   T he principles of G lobal S kill P artnerships 67 B O X 2 . 7   Football academies in Africa: A prime example of foreign private investment in talent development for domestic and global markets A lthough not explicitly designed or labeled as Global Skill Partnerships (GSPs), football acade- mies in Africa serve as prime examples of how private From 2017 to 2022, WAFA partnered with Red Bull Salzburg, which provided $300,000 annually for oper- ational costs in exchange for selecting WAFA’s top two sector initiatives independently implement skill devel- players. Today, WAFA sustains itself primarily through opment in origin countries for both domestic and transfer fees from international clubs, demonstrating international markets. Young players are trained in the a sustainable model of skill development and talent country of origin with private funding from European export that aligns closely with GSP principles. football clubs. These programs are generally designed The rationale for training African players in Africa rather as part of boarding schools for teenagers who also than in Europe or North America, where most trans- receive high-quality secondary education while they fers occur, is both financially and reputationally sound, train. After their training is complete, a number of the considering the high quality of players on the conti- select players are transferred to play for clubs abroad nent. Africa is a notable exporter of athletic talent, with while the majority remain in the origin country and significant representation in top global sports leagues. pursue careers locally. In 2022 alone, 221 African football players were trans- The West African Football Academy (WAFA) in Ghana ferred to international top clubs, with Nigeria and is one of the prominent football academies in Africa, Ghana contributing 53 and 38 players, respectively and has successfully produced players who have (ASCI 2023). This underscores Africa’s pivotal role in joined top football clubs, including Chelsea, Red the global sports talent pipeline. The cost of training Bull Salzburg, Saint Etienne, FC Porto, and Atletico players in Africa is significantly lower than in Europe Madrid. Since its founding in 1998, WAFA has trained or North America. For instance, WAFA provides full over 1,000 players, with about 20 percent transfer- boarding in addition to football training—including ring to international clubs. Beyond football, WAFA housing, food, schooling, health care, and trans- has provided all its students with formal high school portation—for about €10,000 per year per player. In education, preparing the remaining players for local contrast, a club like Feyenoord Rotterdam in the Neth- careers outside of football. The academy was initially erlands spends approximately €40,000 annually per a satellite club of Feyenoord Rotterdam. Ownership player, highlighting the cost-effectiveness of training was later transferred to the African Tiger, a company players in Africa. with holdings in Ghana but under Dutch ownership. Sources: WAFA website, https://www.westafricanfootballacademy.com/; interview with WAFA representatives from WAFA, April 11, 2024. 68 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N T A B L E 2 . 2   Alternative skills training and mobility models for mid- and high-skill sectors Recruiting already skilled Training migrants at GSPs: Training at origin for Factor migrants destination home and away Economic benefits of bringing migrants to meet labor needs Advantage Hiring skilled workers at Increased availability of skilled Increased availability of skilled for destination almost no cost, but the supply workers more closely aligned workers with lower costs and country of already skilled workers is with licensing requirements, risks by training migrants at limited but with large training costs origin; better aligned with and risks development goals Increased remittances, human capital acquired abroad, and creation of skilled diaspora Better professional opportuni- Better professional opportuni- Better professional opportuni- Advantage for ties for migrants ties and training for migrants ties and training for migrants origin country and nonmigrants, mobilized financing and technology from destination to improve training systems in origin country Potential to High: only if there are large Medium: if migrants are Low: given large investments exacerbate flows amid significant skill already semiskilled before they in training systems at origin brain drain shortages migrate Note: GSP = Global Skill Partnership. words, GSPs are closely linked to the overall human 2.3 The three defining capital and skill development agenda in origin countries. In particular, they can be integrated features of GSPs with existing education systems, labor maker poli- cies, and other skill systems. Spotlight 3 offers an This section details the defining features of GSPs; overview of the close relationship between GSPs the next chapter discusses the design of GSPs for and the vocational training agenda. success and scalability. The focus in a GSP should be on skills, as opposed to sectors, that are facing expanding 1. Training must address skill demand. In some cases, the same skills will be shortages in both origin and useful in multiple sectors or occupations. As an destination countries example, basic computing and information tech- nology skills are required across most firms in many Relative to other models, GSPs should be sectors. In other cases, the same occupation will viewed as skills training programs with migra- require different skills in different countries. For tion components as opposed to migration example, the level of training required to fill nursing programs with skills training components. vacancies may be more advanced in high-income This difference is critical. GSPs’ primary focus, in countries (HICs), and bringing nurse training to line with its first defining feature, is on designing such an advanced level in a lower-income origin training programs with an eye toward both the country may result in a pool of nurses who are domestic and international labor markets. In other 2 :   T he principles of G lobal S kill P artnerships 69 overqualified for available positions in their home example, in the ICT sector. One PALIM evaluation country. noted that skill needs had evolved such that, by the end of training, employers’ needs had changed; GSPs should aim to address occupations and other evaluations pointed out that only specific skill shortages that are common in both origin tasks and software versions had changed, while and destination countries. Chapter 1 highlights broad programming needs—specifically Java and that there are many common skill shortages Angular—remained constant (Rodriguez 2022). emerging in countries at all income levels. The design of GSPs can begin with a labor demand GSP training can target foundational skills, assessment and skill forecasting exercise to such as socioemotional (or soft) skills and identify training that would be beneficial for grad- digital skills. Foundational skills are skills that uates in both the origin and destination countries. increase employability across many occupations These demand assessments should be based and labor markets. They include socioemotional on a variety of existing data sources, including skills like communication and leadership, and macroeconomic indicators, labor force surveys, professional skills like time management and and administrative records from education and organization. Digital skills like basic computer training institutions, alongside qualitative consul- literacy and familiarity with professional software tations with firms and other industry actors. These are increasingly becoming foundational across can then be combined with economic and demo- many occupations. graphic projections to estimate expected demand and supply in certain occupations. Such assess- Employers and industry associations can be ments are regularly carried out by governments, consulted to ensure that the skills targeted sometimes for the direct purpose of determining for expansion are in demand in both countries. immigration needs and visa quotas. Macro assessments performed by governments only identify broad sectoral or occupational GSPs should focus on skills that are transfer- demand patterns: they do not generally iden- able across countries and face predictable tify narrower skill sets sought by firms. For this demand. For example, lawyers or legal assis- reason, surveys and continuous communication tants are most likely not good candidates for GSPs with firms and with industry associations repre- since every country has a different legal code and senting the firms are essential to map the specific corresponding training system. In contrast, auto skill content of training. A good example can be mechanics and computer specialists have very found in PALIM, which began with a demand similar human capital profiles and training around assessment and consultations with firms and the globe. In some occupations, core skills training industry associations in Belgium and Morocco is common and transferable, but additional skill before identifying junior Java developers for requirements can vary across countries. In the the ICT sector as one of the key occupations to nursing example, a GSP could implement a funda- be chosen for training (Rodriguez 2023). More- mental nursing training in the origin country, while over, employers and industry associations should the away track continues with more advanced remain involved in all aspects of GSP design and training tailored to nursing skills and certifications implementation—including training design, selec- demanded at destination. Finally, GSPs will be tion of trainees, training implementation, and skill more challenging in sectors where skill require- identification and validation. Another lesson from ments evolve rapidly. This may be the case, for PALIM was that if destination employers are not 70 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N consulted during key program decisions such as the admissions criteria for trainees or changes in B O X 2 . 8   YES training curricula, then graduates may become T less attractive to employers. he Youth, Employment, and Skills in Kosovo (YES) project was envisioned as a training GSPs must be tailored to the skills recognition program for construction workers at a private and qualification standards of each country. In training school in Kosovo. The funding was mostly cases where qualification standards differ, sepa- provided by the German Ministry for Economic rate certification processes need to be offered for Cooperation and Development (BMZ). After two the home and away tracks. In most cases, the years of training, half of the trainees would receive a certificate allowing them to work in Kosovo, away track will receive certifications after the while the other half would move to Germany to migrants arrive at the country of destination. While complete their training through internships with this introduces an inherent difference between the German employers. skills provided and certified in each track, the core of the training should be offered to both groups However, the standards and length for Kosovar simultaneously. In the case of PALIM, industry and German construction qualifications were associations and employers in each country were very different, and it became clear that German involved in validating the skill profiles of ICT training employers were unwilling to accept the Kosovar graduates. In the YES project, the large gap in curriculum. The project instead shifted to devel- oping “a replicable model for skills development Kosovar and German qualification standards in and recognition of qualifications” for Kosovar the construction sector impeded implementation; and German occupations facing skill shortages, this laid the foundation for an initiative to develop creating a potential for the project to be reat- mutually recognized skill qualification standards tempted in the future. (box 2.8). Source: CGD 2021c. 2. Firms and governments of destination countries shoulder the primary share of destination country and migrants. Funding from financing training the destination country can come from both the government (which benefits from wider economic Financing of GSP programs is a shared respon- benefits and tax revenues) and employers (which sibility of the various actors that benefit in benefit from skilled migrant labor). The private both origin and destination countries. GSPs sector at destination is in a particularly strong involve many fixed and variable costs associated position to contribute, given its large gains from with training, migration, and accreditation. The bringing migrant workers to address labor short- cost of training in the origin country can be split ages and possibly to save on wages, though this between the origin and destination countries— requires substantial trust in training quality and considering that both countries benefit from the the migration process. International organiza- training, while recognizing that origin countries tions can also play a catalyzing role in providing may have limited resources to invest in training upfront financing to cover the fixed costs of multis- programs. Costs of migration and living over- takeholder dialogue and trust building, institutional seas, on the other hand, more directly benefit the capacity building, and before proof of concept is 2 :   T he principles of G lobal S kill P artnerships 71 established. Chapter 3 contains further discus- potential to partially fill this financing gap. sion of financing considerations and cost-sharing As shown in figure 2.4, LICs and LMICs already models. spend a substantial share of their gross domestic product (GDP) on education. Compared to HICs, Financial constraints are among the they spend relatively more on primary and less major impediments to skill development in on secondary and tertiary schooling. The levels lower-income- (LICs) and lower-middle-in- of public education expenditure in LICs and come countries (LMICs), and GSPs have the LMICs are in line with what these governments F I G U R E 2 . 4   Government expenditure on education in LICs and LMICs is already high as a share of gross domestic product a. Primary edu ation b. Se ondary edu ation LMI s LMI s 3.0 UMI s 3.0 UMI s HI s LI s HI s 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 % of GDP % of GDP 1.5 LI s 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0 0 . Tertiary edu ation d. Vo ational edu ation 3.0 3.0 2.5 HI s 2.5 2.0 2.0 % of GDP % of GDP 1.5 UMI s 1.5 HI s LI s 1.0 LMI s 1.0 UMI s LI s 0.5 0.5 LMI s 0 0 Source: UNESCO Institute of Statistics, most recent available data between 2017 and 2023. Note: GDP = gross domestic product; HIC = high-income country; LIC = low-income country; LMIC = lower-middle-income country; UMIC = upper-middle-income country. The line inside each bar represents the median. The upper and lower edges of the bar repre- sent the upper and lower quartiles, respectively. The short lines above and below the bar represent the maximum and minimum values, respectively. 72 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N can afford, as well as the internationally recom- by moving their training programs overseas. mended targets of 4–6 percent of GDP, and they For example, since 2008, the Porsche Training have increased to keep up with growing youth and Recruitment Center Asia has been training populations (Arias, Evans, and Santos 2019). Even workers in Manila to work for Porsche subsidiaries with moderate increases in these investments, in other Asian countries. The Manila program has education and training capacities in LICs and expanded to include sister companies Audi and LMICs will likely expand slowly and struggle to Volkswagen, and Porsche has opened similar keep pace with population growth and economic centers in China and Mexico. In PAM, training needs. GSPs offer an opportunity to build part- costs in metal processing occupations in Viet Nam nerships with foreign governments and firms to are estimated to be about half what they would be provide financing and technology to help fill this in Germany (An et al. 2023). However, there might gap. be exceptions to lower costs in origin countries that require additional long-term cost-reduction Employers at destination have a particularly strategies (IOM 2024). For example, training in the strong incentive to contribute to financing and origin country may not generate cost savings if are key to ensuring its sustainability. Employers equipment and trainers need to be sent from the benefit from recruiting migrant workers when they destination, which is more likely when local training face large labor shortages and higher wages. In institutions are weak. In the case of the Australian GIZ’s Triple Win program for the nursing sector, government–funded APTC, costs per trainee were for instance, employers have shouldered the initially high. Program administrators managed costs of specialist and language training, recog- to bring costs down in part by hiring more local nition of qualifications, and travel from the origin trainers and integrating training with local voca- country to Germany (Clemens, Dempster, and tional training providers, but only after investing Gough 2019). Since the program’s establishment significantly in local training capacity (box 2.2). in 2013, over 6,000 nurses have been placed in Germany (Luciano and Schimpf 2021). However, Firms may have stronger incentives to finance employers will finance training and migration training in origin countries when they have costs only when they expect to recruit qualified international subsidiaries based there. Firms candidates in a reasonable period. Preselection based at the destination country and with subsid- and placement are implemented by the federal iaries in the origin country have recruitment and employment agency and the labor administrations training needs for both locations and would be in the country of origin. Employers prefer to employ ideal partners for a GSP. They are also more likely the trained migrant workers under longer-term or to have the needed facilities and expert trainers even permanent contracts to recoup these invest- to implement classroom and on-the-job training ments. This is especially the case with small and in the origin country at a low cost. International medium enterprises with limited resources (Demp- corporations often play an important role in ster et al. 2022). improving domestic training institutions. This has historically been a crucial development strategy Training is cheaper and less risky when it in countries such as Singapore, or more recently, is conducted at origin, though additional Ghana and South Africa (box 2.9). investments are required in countries with lower-quality education and training systems. GSPs are not development aid programs, but Employers often capitalize on lower training costs international development agencies can still 2 :   T he principles of G lobal S kill P artnerships 73 B O X 2 . 9   Examples of skill systems’ development through partnerships with international subsidiaries S ingapore promotes domestic skill development by partnering with leading multinational companies with well-developed training systems. In the 1970s, technical education programs. Similar strategies were pursued in Ireland and Malaysia, among other coun- tries (Ansu and Tan 2008). Singapore’s Economic Development Board (EDB) Other examples of public-private partnerships in attracted the Tata Group, India’s largest engineering technical and vocational training programs are seen firm at the time, to set up a plant in Singapore with in Africa. In 2005, Ghana, the Netherlands, and the a training facility to train local workers. The govern- Association of Ghana Industries together launched ment provided facilities, contributed to the operating the Ghana Industrial Skills Development Center costs, and paid the trainees’ stipends. Tata trained to provide training in mechanical, electrical, and twice as many trainees as they required, and the process engineering directly in response to the local remainder were hired by local firms or retained by recruitment needs of an international textile subsid- the EDB to attract other engineering firms to Singa- iary. In South Africa, Middleburg Higher Technical pore. The EDB pursued a similar model with various School has established partnerships with various other international firms, and as a next step, set up international companies, including the Toyota Motor transnational partnerships in which various foreign Company. Through these partnerships, the country companies pooled training resources to serve the receives equipment and training courses directly broader industry. Meanwhile, it enlisted foreign assis- from the company partner, and trainees have the tance to upgrade its own training centers and used its option of applying for employment and completing industry partners for assistance with curriculum devel- their training as employees. Employment is not guar- opment, training their trainers, and equipment loans anteed by Toyota, but trainees who achieve a score or donations. Over three decades, Singapore’s stra- of 80 percent or higher receive a certificate and are tegic use of private sector partnerships has helped eligible to apply for a position at any Toyota dealership it develop a world-class system of polytechnics and across South Africa (Arias, Evans, and Santos 2019). help as catalysts. Since employers and even also have a role to play in terms of sharing knowl- governments may initially be concerned about edge, bringing multiple actors to the table, and high costs and candidate qualifications, devel- supporting institutional capacity building in origin opment agencies can share some of the initial countries (see Spotlight 4). upfront investments before the proof of concept has been established. For example, Accessing Overseas Employment Opportunities for Moroccan 3. Migration must occur Youth was initially funded by the World Bank. The through legal pathways program’s success led German employers to inde- pendently fund language training and migration Formal migration via legal entry pathways programs (box 2.10). In PALIM, the Belgian devel- and employment rights maximizes the gains opment agency Enabel played a pivotal role in from international mobility for the migrants managing partnerships with government agen- and their origin and destination countries. cies, employers, and employment services in Legal migration facilitates safe, orderly, and effi- Morocco and Belgium. Development agencies cient migration; protects migrants from abuse 74 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N B O X 2 . 1 0   The World Bank’s Accessing Overseas Employment Opportunities for Moroccan Youth Project: A stepping stone to a GSP G lobal Skill Partnerships (GSPs) require desti- nation firms to trust the skill qualifications of candidates selected and trained in the origin country An important outcome of this pilot program was building mutual trust. Germany needed to see that Moroccan institutions could effectively prepare and their ability to migrate and integrate quickly and candidates for the German dual-track system. For smoothly. Given the many challenges associated with its part, Morocco needed to see that German actors this process, it may in some settings be more feasible would follow through with creating migration path- to begin training at destination. While the gains for ways and ensuring a smooth transition for Moroccan the origin country are not as large in terms of trained migrants. The program helped develop ANAPEC’s workers and improved training institutions, these capacity to conduct labor market intermediation for programs can lead to capacity building for interna- foreign markets through bilateral partnerships; today, tional labor market intermediation in the origin country ANAPEC continues to independently screen workers and trust building between government, firms, and and facilitate their entry into the German dual-track labor intermediaries to pave the way for future GSPs. system in various sectors, with German employers financing language training and migration costs and This type of model is observed in the Accessing Over- with limited involvement of international development seas Employment Opportunities for Moroccan Youth actors (Hajir 2023). This experience may facilitate Project. This World Bank–funded initiative ran from future GSPs between Germany and Morocco, with 2017 to 2021 and aimed to address both the ongoing training implemented in the origin country with both shortage of skilled labor in Germany and high youth home and away tracks. unemployment in Morocco. In the first phase (2017–19), 108 young Moroccans were screened and selected The approach is also now taking place under by the Moroccan National Agency for Promotion the German subcomponent of Towards a Holistic of Employment and Skills (ANAPEC) in partnership Approach to Labour Migration Governance and Labour with the German Agency for International Cooper- Mobility in North Africa (THAMM)—THAMM-GIZ—with ation (GIZ) to participate in six months of intensive Morocco, Tunisia, and the Arab Republic of Egypt. This German language and cultural training. This training program supported partner institutions in these coun- was followed by migration and entry into Germa- tries in piloting mobility schemes for apprentices and ny’s dual-track vocational training system—which skilled workers. The follow-up project, THAMM Plus, pairs in-class vocational training with paid, on-site builds on this experience, targeting skilled workers apprenticeships—for three years in the tourism and who have already completed training and gained hospitality sectors. In the second phase (2019–21), work experience in their field as well as future appren- 103 young Moroccans completed the program in tices who are placed in vocational training positions in the tourism, hospitality, and construction sectors. Germany (GIZ 2024a). After completing two to three After graduation, the majority of trainees completed years of vocational training in Germany, the appren- the necessary accreditation to stay on as full-time tice candidates can work as skilled workers. Sectors workers in Germany, while a minority returned to work include hotel and catering, electrical trades, construc- in Morocco. German firms indicated a high level of tion, information technology, industrial mechanics, and satisfaction with the program and a willingness to baking (Marchand 2023a). Components of technical continue participating in similar programs in the future training have also been moved to the country of origin. (Luthria 2021). Source: Information provided by GIZ in September 2024. 2 :   T he principles of G lobal S kill P artnerships 75 and exploitation; increases access to essential F I G U R E 2 . 5   Migrants have similar wage services; and increases economic benefits for profiles with nationals only when they migrants and countries of both origin and desti- have documented status nation. Having formal status encourages migrants 3.3 to invest in destination country–specific social and human capital, further increasing their economic 3.1 Hourly wage (log) Nationals and social contributions, and reducing the fiscal 2.9 burdens they might potentially impose. Do umented immigrants 2.7 Extensive evidence shows that migrants inte- 2.5 grate better economically and socially when 2.3 Undo umented immigrants they are documented. Documented migrants face fewer barriers to working in the formal sector where 2.1 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 they receive wages commensurate to their skills and Age face lower risk of occupational downgrading. This Source: World Development Report 2023 team calculations, enables them to increase their earning, productivity, based on Borjas and Cassidy 2019, using data from the Amer- ican Community Survey. and overall contributions to the economy. Docu- Note: Earnings profiles are constructed at each year of age by mented migrants have stronger incentives to invest calculating the average hourly wage for workers of each legal status. Undocumented immigrants are identified based on the in destination-specific social and human capital, methodology outlined in Borjas and Cassidy (2019). further increasing their economic contributions and “match” (World Bank 2018, 2023). In the United States, wage profiles over the life span are similar for nationals and documented migrants, while By creating legal pathways for skilled workers, they are considerably lower—up to 50 percent— GSPs help governments curb undocumented for undocumented migrants with similar education migration. On the supply side, GSPs allow and experience profiles (figure 2.5). Documented legal entry for workers who may have otherwise migrants pay income and social security taxes, migrated through undocumented channels. On benefit from government social services such as the demand side, GSPs enable employers to find education and health care, and have access to qualified formal workers instead of hiring through formal financial services. Destination countries also informal channels. While many undocumented benefit from increased tax revenues and the ability migrants work in low-skill and manual occupa- to protect domestic workers from unfair competition tions, there are also many undocumented workers in wages and working conditions. Legal path- with secondary, tertiary, or technical skills. In the ways improve predictability for employers as they United States in 2019, the estimated number of plan their human resource needs over the short to undocumented migrants with a postsecondary medium term. Finally, origin countries benefit from degree was over 1.7 million (Miller 2022). Many higher remittance flows through formal channels, high-skill sectors include significant shares of thereby fostering financial inclusion and financial undocumented workers, such as construction and sector deepening. Documented migrants can also skilled trades, auto repair, commercial cooking, return home more easily, allowing them to main- and software development (Passel and Cohn tain stronger connections with their origin families 2016). GSPs can provide alternative options to and communities and facilitating diaspora engage- migrants and employers relying on informal routes. ment. However, the extent to which GSPs can substitute 76 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N for undocumented employment will vary heavily take years. Some stakeholders indicated that it across contexts. would have required decades of diplomacy and dialogue to build consensus on this issue (CGD Legal entry and employment pathways allow 2021c). Similarly, in the APTC, migration to Australia for efficient matching of migrant workers to was initially very low, and has only recently jobs. These matches ensure that the skills and managed to increase through a concerted effort preferences of migrant workers match the needs to improve coordination with Australian employers of the destination firms and their qualifications are and immigration authorities (APTC 2019; Chand, formally recognized (World Bank 2023). A strong Clemens, and Dempster 2021). Currently the APTC match between workers and employers requires is increasing the support of elderly care training that workers have the right background and qual- and certification, which is a priority sector for ifications, including language training and soft Australia (APTC 2022). These examples highlight skills. In addition, workers and employers need the value of tailoring training to existing migra- to agree on work hours, location, and nonwage tion pathways. Participants must be eligible for the benefits. With a large pool of potential migrant visas and able to receive them without delay. New workers and employers, this results in a complex migration pathways can be created to accom- matching problem. Private or public employment modate GSPs, but this may require substantial service agencies might play a role in this process coordination and consensus building with migra- to ensure higher productivity and satisfaction by tion authorities and legislators and might delay workers and firms. The details of how this match the process. is generated—as well as the selection of desired characteristics and their relative importance— Legal provisions of entry and employment depend heavily on the context, the occupation, of migrant workers must guarantee their and the economic sector, as well as labor market labor market rights, including safeguards for regulations. working conditions. This process must include regulating private actors when they are involved The trainees of a GSP program must satisfy in recruitment. Worker protections can also be the skill and employment requirements of the enhanced by employment contracts based on visa regime that were intended to provide international labor standards. Recently, the Inter- the legal pathway for their emigration. If the national Organization for Migration spearheaded GSP programs impose unrealistic legal or finan- the development of a human rights–based labor cial burdens or requirements that the firms or the mobility framework in the Pacific (ILO and IOM migrants cannot meet, the partnership is likely 2022). Migrant workers should also be supported to fail. In the case of the Germany-Kosovo YES with social integration, including counseling and partnership (for the construction sector), migrant mentoring, facilitating access to key services, and workers from Kosovo needed to show that they increasing diaspora engagement. In many cases, had received job offers with wages that were partnerships can be created with organizations higher than what the German firms were willing that are already providing these services. to pay. On top of this, a visa backlog due to slow processing meant that visa applications could SPOTLIGHT 3 GSPs and the vocational training and labor market policy agenda Technical and vocational education and training, potential (Arias, Evans, and Santos 2019). A study apprenticeship programs, and other training in Türkiye found significant variation in returns to interventions entail skill development in a wide vocational high school and university fields of range of occupational fields and sectors. They study. For vocational high school degree holders, can take place at the secondary or tertiary level the wage premium relative to nondegree holders and often include work-based learning, continuing varied from –15.2 percent for security services training, and professional development which can to +13.5 percent for transport services and envi- lead to numerous professional qualifications and ronmental protection (Aydede and Orbay 2016). credentials (UNESCO 2015). The focus on technical Similarly, graduates of formal short-term training and occupation-specific skills directly relevant to courses in Bangladesh experienced very different the labor market means that a well-functioning employment rates six months after graduation, system can play a significant role in providing prac- depending on their field of study and the training tical skills and experience that facilitate people’s provider (World Bank, UNESCO, and ILO 2023). transition into the workforce. By providing critical Even within countries and sectors, institutional technical and vocational skills relatively swiftly, quality can vary widely across training providers; these interventions can help address skill short- this creates considerable investment risk both ages and mismatches rapidly as well as shape for prospective learners and for employers to the types of jobs that are created—and a coun- assess whether graduates have the adequate try’s sustainable economic transformation in the skill competencies, resulting in employers avoiding medium and long term (World Bank, UNESCO, and them as potential hires or paying them less (World ILO 2023). Bank, UNESCO, and ILO 2023). Evaluations show that some technical and There are significant regional differences in vocational training programs have posi- the size of vocational and technical training tive effects on employment and wages in systems, and wealthier countries typically have the short term, although outcomes vary higher enrollment. The average share of 15- to widely between and within fields of study. 24-year-olds enrolled in vocational and tech- Evidence from high-income countries (HICs) nical training in LICs and middle-income countries and upper-middle-income countries (UMICs) (MICs) is far less than 10 percent in all regions suggests that young trained graduates have excluding Europe and Central Asia. In HICs, this is better employment outcomes than those with roughly 20 percent. Enrollment is particularly low in general education in the short term (Hampf and Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, due to the low Woessmann 2017; Hanushek et al. 2015; Lamo, share of young people between the ages of 15–24 Messina, and Wasmer 2011; OECD 2020a; Woess- who are enrolled in any type of education, as well mann 2019). In lower-middle-income countries as the low share of secondary students enrolled (LMICs), the evidence is limited but similar patterns in technical and vocational training compared have been identified. For example, in Ghana and to general education (World Bank, UNESCO, Kenya, secondary vocational training institutions and ILO 2023). Figure S3.1 shows that the share are estimated to have higher returns than general of secondary students enrolled in technical and secondary for individuals with less earnings vocational training is positively correlated with 77 78 S potlight 3 :   G S P s and the v ocational training and labor market polic y agenda F I G U R E S 3 . 1   The share of secondary globalization, technological change, and climate students in a vocational track increases with change. national income 35 Lower Upper Total Demographic trends and increasing secondary se ondary se ondary se ondary 30 enrollment are projected to increase the % of se ondary students 25 potential demand for technical and voca- tional training and active labor market policies, 20 particularly in low- and middle-income coun- 15 tries. As the labor force in HICs and UMICs 10 ages, more workers with adequate skills will be 5 needed to meet the gaps in the labor market. 0 With sufficient investments, these interventions in LI s LMI s UMI s HI s LICs and MICs can provide the necessary pipe- Source: World Bank, UNESCO, and ILO 2023. line to meet the skill gap at home and abroad. Note: HIC = high-income country; LIC = low-income country; Based on annual data from 72 LICs and MICs, LMIC = lower-middle-income country; UMIC = upper-middle-in- come country. the percentage of secondary students enrolled in vocational programs rose from 8.6 percent in 2000 to 11.3 percent in 2020. If student prefer- income, increasing from 16 percent in LICs to ences for general or technical education do not 30 percent in HICs. change, demographic trends and higher comple- tion rates at lower levels of education are likely In general, there are concerns regarding both to cause technical and vocational training and the quality of training and the labor market active labor market programs to expand, partic- relevance of most technical and vocational ularly in LICs and MICs (figure S3.2). Indeed, in training systems amid changing labor market the next two decades, the number of youths with dynamics. Many students enter technical and secondary technical and vocational training vocational training with significant gaps in founda- degrees can be expected to more than quadruple tional skills. Teachers often lack the pedagogical in Burundi, Liberia, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal, skills to deliver quality training as well as incen- Tanzania, and Uganda; and increase sixfold in tives, resources, and industry experience. There Sudan and tenfold in Niger (World Bank, UNESCO, is often irregular or insufficient engagement with and ILO 2023). enterprises that can identify necessary skills and support updating of curricula, equipment, Overall, with the right investments and part- teachers’ knowledge, or assessment of student nerships, training systems and other active competencies. Assessments of training systems labor market interventions could provide across the world routinely document gaps in high-quality skills training that is relevant in infrastructure, equipment, and materials (World the labor market. However, this requires consis- Bank, UNESCO, and ILO 2023). The absence of tent financing, alongside measures to improve appropriate digital infrastructure limits the ability governance and reliability. In many countries, of systems to exploit the potential benefits of improving training systems and active labor market digital technology. These obstacles are met with programs is not only desirable, but necessary to the challenge of rapidly evolving labor demand, accommodate a booming youth population and driven by a combination of megatrends including rapidly evolving skill demand. S potlight 3 :   G S P s and the v ocational training and labor market polic y agenda 79 F I G U R E S 3 . 2   Technical and vocational across different institutions implementing training training enrollment is expected to increase in and other skills development and labor interme- LICs and LMICs diation services. Training regulatory frameworks can help facilitate recruitment of teachers and LI s other staff to ensure they have adequate qual- ifications. It also enables a separation of roles 2015 LMI s 2030 between delivery, supervision, and evaluation, 2040 which is often not possible in pilot projects or ad hoc partnerships. In some cases, ad hoc part- UMI s nerships with select training institutions may be easier to establish in the short run, but integra- HI s tion with existing training and labor intermediation systems will often allow for greater scalability in 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 the long term. Population ages 15–24 a quiring se ondary vo ational edu ation (millions) Public-private partnerships can shape the Source: World Bank, UNESCO, and ILO 2023. skill content of training and provide pathways Note: HIC = high-income country; LIC = low-income country; to employment. Well-functioning training and LMIC = lower-middle-income country; UMIC = upper-middle-in- come country. employment promotion systems can better align skill supply and demand and adjust their offerings quickly to meet changing labor market needs. The private sector is a key stakeholder in a successful What are the gains from basing training and labor intermediation system and GSPs on existing training and active provides a critical link between training content labor market interventions? and labor market needs. It informs the design and Linking GSPs to well-established training and content of training, facilitates on-the-job learning labor intermediation systems can increase and apprenticeships, and can directly hire workers cost-effectiveness and scalability by lever- after graduation. In a context of rapidly evolving aging existing infrastructure and governance skill needs, this ensures that training curricula structures. The costs of attracting, training, and remain relevant. Work-based learning and flex- retaining qualified instructors; securing engage- ible skill certification and recognition can increase ment (financial or otherwise) for employers to access to high-quality jobs, including in the digital support students; and establishing regulatory and greening economies (OECD 2019; UNESCO systems or governance structures can be high 2016). For example, in India, the Green Skill (Clemens, Dempster, and Gough 2019). In general, Development Program aims to develop technical technical and vocational training systems have knowledge for the green transition; in Viet Nam, existing governance structures such as sector the National Institute for Vocational Training has skill councils, which can be leveraged to provide launched a technical and vocational training quality assurance and adhere to national regula- reform program that focuses on competencies in tory frameworks. Coordination bodies across local, the application of climate-friendly technologies sectoral, regional, and national levels can ensure (UNESCO-UNEVOC 2021). In South Africa, the that Global Skill Partnerships (GSPs) align with Council for Scientific and Industrial Research and bilateral priorities and the curricula are consistent the Siemens company have partnered to equip 80 S potlight 3 :   G S P s and the v ocational training and labor market polic y agenda formal learners with digital and technical skills These investments can improve the overall level (World Bank, UNESCO, and ILO 2023). and quality of training in origin countries, bene- fiting both potential migrants and those who wish In many cases, especially in well-established to work domestically. systems, training is more accessible in public systems than those provided by private enti- GSPs involve extensive private sector engage- ties. Private training institutions typically have ment and can help strengthen cooperation diverse sources of funding, which makes trans- and collaboration between training providers parency and costs difficult to determine. In and employers. An overarching challenge of addition, private providers receive a significant training and labor market programs across LICs portion of their funding from student fees, which and MICs is weak linkages to employers. For creates access and equity barriers. For example, example, an evaluation of Millennium Challenge in the Philippines, public technical and vocational Corporation investments in technical and voca- training providers receive almost 95 percent of tional training in El Salvador, Mongolia, Morocco, their funding from the Technical Education and and Namibia between 2008 and 2014 found Skills Development Authority (TESDA), whereas accountability relationships—especially between private providers receive nearly 70 percent from employers and providers—to be a missing link for student fees (World Bank, UNESCO, and ILO 2023). achieving impact on employment and earnings, The heavy reliance on household contributions even when projects met their objectives in terms may prevent disadvantaged populations from of inputs and outputs (MCC 2020). GSPs involve accessing private training. extensive private sector engagement, and tech- nical and vocational training systems can use these partnerships as an opportunity to improve How can GSPs benefit existing private sector linkages. For example, the Project training and employment systems? Addressing Labour Shortages Through Innovative Foreign partnerships can ensure that training Labour Migration (PALIM) and Towards a Holistic and employment interventions are delivered Approach to Labour Migration Governance and to industry standards. This requires invest- Labour Mobility in North Africa (THAMM-Enabel) ments in capable and adequately resourced projects described in boxes 2.3 and 2.4 helped institutions, quality infrastructure and equipment, build relationships between Moroccan and and trained and motivated teachers incentivized Belgian firms, the Moroccan public employment to deliver high-quality programs. These invest- service agency, and Moroccan training providers. ments are challenged by a lack of systematic This facilitated future placement of Moroccan financing, and official development assistance workers with firms both at home and abroad. or small-scale bilateral pilot projects offer only temporary investments. Foreign partnerships can Through foreign partnerships, the poten- bring sustainable financing alongside expertise, tial workforce goes beyond satisfying the innovation, and technology. Foreign partners can demands of the domestic labor market, and attract and retain more qualified instructors, help instead raises the bar for training systems identify innovative and effective teaching prac- in the country of origin to be competitive in tices through exchanges with employers and the global labor market. This can strengthen industry associations in destination countries, the accountability and credibility of local training and implement training of the trainer programs. institutions and improve the skill profiles of both S potlight 3 :   G S P s and the v ocational training and labor market polic y agenda 81 the domestic labor force and those who choose most common reason for students to drop out to migrate. For example, in the Philippines, TESDA (World Bank 2017). Foreign financing in the form offers technical skill courses that are recog- of vouchers or scholarships can help remove nized for international requirements. Even to these barriers for students with liquidity and credit be employed overseas for certain occupations constraints. Foreign partnerships can help fund such as domestic work, a TESDA certification transport, housing, or other assistance needed is required. This signals to employers domesti- for students to attend training from more remote cally and abroad that workers have a standard locations, and they can take other actions to skill qualification that is credible and recognized help remove conventional barriers that prevent (TESDA 2024). In another example, the Australia marginalized groups from participating in the labor Pacific Training Coalition (APTC) described in market. In Kosovo, 80 percent of females were box 2.2 offers Australian-recognized certifications reported inactive in the labor market because of through partner training institutions in the Pacific social norms and expectations. Adapted training Islands and Timor-Leste (APTC 2022). design can, for example, help women develop leadership skills and take on managerial roles that GSPs can help improve equity and access break from traditional norms (Clemens, Dempster, to national training systems and employ- and Gough 2019). ment programs for disadvantaged students. In Romania, the inability to afford vocational education was the second most important reason (reported by 23 percent of institutions surveyed) for vocational students dropping out (World Bank, UNESCO, and ILO 2023). In Kenya, two-thirds of the training institutions surveyed in three cities reported that inability to cover tuition was the 3 Designing GSPs for scalability and success 84 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N G lobal Skill Partnerships (GSPs) involve the existing quality and capacity of training the design of various complex compo- institutions in the origin countries, the ability of nents including training structures, skills the destination country institution to assist or recognition, type of legal pathway, stakeholder provide training in another country, as well as engagement, the role of the private sector, and the number of potential trainees who can meet types of financing. These components are just as eligibility requirements to enter these training critical as the three defining features discussed programs. in chapter 2. Yet their design can vary across programs and corridors depending on the condi- GSPs should be designed with scalability in tions and objectives of each specific context. They mind. Many early-stage design decisions will may depend, for example, on the following: determine the extent to which a GSP can scale up and be sustainable. For example, policy makers n Government objectives. The objectives of the need to decide which sectors and populations to destination country may be purely economic, target, which institutional actors to bring to the driven by the need for additional skilled workers. table, which training providers to work with, and However, they may also include humanitarian which visa pathway to work through. In many goals. Origin countries may be interested in cases, there may be a trade-off between getting reducing unemployment, especially among a GSP off the ground and creating a GSP that can the young; improving management of migra- scale up and have a substantial economic impact tion; and/or developing their training institutions in both origin and destination countries. Consid- to meet long-term domestic skill needs. At the erations may include, for example, whether to same time, both sets of countries may desire work with small-capacity local training providers, to create partnerships for diplomatic reasons. to facilitate migration through a visa pathway with limited availability, or to target a sector with n Legal and institutional constraints. These limited demand in the origin or destination country. include the existing visa categories and At the end of the day, these decisions will deter- migration pathways—which may be perma- mine whether a GSP remains a small-scale and nent or temporary—as well as the institutional targeted program or is able to grow to affect thou- processes required to increase visa caps or sands instead of hundreds of people’s lives. change visa requirements. Legal considerations include existing skills recognition requirements At the same time, the importance of navi- as well as the ability to enforce labor laws for gating complex institutional frameworks and migrant workers. collaborations cannot be underestimated. n Labor market conditions. The choice of which GSPs require collaboration with many actors, sector(s) and skill categories to include within strong engagement with the private sector, and a GSP will depend heavily on employment alignment with the institutional framework around conditions and labor demand. As discussed in labor mobility in each country. For this reason, chapter 2, GSPs are only appropriate for skills GSPs should be carefully designed from the start that face unmet labor demand in both origin through extensive planning and piloting. During and destination countries. the pilot for the Towards a Holistic Approach to Labour Migration Governance and Labour Mobility n Human capital and training capacity. The in North Africa (THAMM) project between Belgium, structure of training programs will depend on Morocco, and Tunisia, for example, the Belgian 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 85 development agency Enabel worked closely with promote, and protect their workers accordingly. public employment agencies to identify sectors The Philippines offers a prime example of special- and skill profiles for training. This coordination ization and sound migration management policies included multiple missions for technical experts with a global labor market view. Destination coun- from Belgian employment agencies to training tries can also use GSPs and other bilateral training centers in the origin countries. Enabel also invested and mobility agreements to attract a productive extensive time in understanding Belgium’s labor and diverse migrant labor force that can comple- mobility institutions and in exploring strategies for ment and fill gaps in their domestic labor markets. engaging with the private sector—including, for Various partnerships and agreements in Germany example, job days and digital job platforms. The and Australia can be seen as good examples of groundwork set during the pilot has been essen- this vision. tial for understanding the institutional setting in a way that will now allow THAMM-Enabel and other future GSPs to scale.1 3.1 Training design GSPs should remain adaptable and respon- sive to trial and error to be successful. GSPs need to incorporate complex features, operate Identifying sectors and with a range of partners, and foresee potential curricula institutional changes in the long run. Therefore, it is essential that GSPs include plans for monitoring GSPs should begin by choosing the right and evaluation (M&E) and have built-in mecha- training sector and skill content for success nisms that allow for flexibility. For example, the and mutual gains. As discussed extensively in Australia Pacific Training Coalition (APTC) has chapter 2, GSPs should target skills that employers evolved dramatically since its inception in 2007. currently demand, or are expected to demand, in Most notably, it has evolved to become more both origin and destination countries. Accurate integrated with local training institutions, be more targeting should involve demand assessments and aligned with Australian visa programs with more forecasting using existing data sources, but should support for labor mobility, and increase financial also include extensive and continuous consulta- sustainability and stakeholder buy-in through tions with firms and industry associations in both improved cost sharing (DFAT 2021). This was countries. GSPs are often most appropriate for achieved through evaluation and self-reflection mid-skill occupations with relatively stable skill during various strategic reviews, with large demand profiles that are also transferable across changes implemented between funding stages. countries. Training design includes many technical decisions such as defining syllabus and course GSPs can be a means to an end: a sound content, duration of training, delivery methods, migration management system. Origin countries participant selection process, graduation or skills experimenting with bilateral GSPs may eventu- recognition requirements, and whether any of ally evolve these partnerships into systems that these elements will differ between the “home” can anticipate global skill demand and prepare, and “away” tracks. GSPs can also include soft and digital skills training components as desir-   Consultations with representatives from Enabel in April 1 able features; this is discussed later in this section. 2024. 86 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N Private sector actors should remain involved training of the away track can be adapted to throughout the entire process of training match the needs or regulatory requirements design and implementation. To ensure that grad- of the destination country. The purpose of GSPs uates possess the skills required for employment is to target sectors and skills that are in demand in the destination, it is essential to have potential in both origin and destination countries. Realis- employers, or industry associations representing tically, however, there are usually differences in firms, heavily involved in training design. In the the specific skills demanded by sectors in each case of THAMM-Enabel, technical experts from country, and it may not be possible to create a Belgian employment agencies carried out multiple certification process with mutual recognition of visits to training centers in Morocco. Importantly, all skill requirements. In some cases, the desti- this involvement should continue throughout nation country will require more advanced or program implementation, especially for pilot proj- specialized skills. These requirements are likely ects where training parameters may change after to include language training, which may demand the project begins. a longer period of study. Participants in the away track could then receive a longer and more Training duration can range from a few months intensive training, either in the origin or destina- to a few years. Short-term technical or voca- tion country, possibly both. Providing the same tional training programs typically range from three training to the home track may be unnecessary to six months, but some formal training programs (e.g., language training), too costly and unfeasible can extend up to three years. In the case of the to provide, or could even generate overqualifica- APTC, full-qualification courses often range from tion for jobs in the origin country. For example, 18 to 22 weeks, including the process to obtain in the GSP in nursing between Germany and Australian certifications for occupations in sectors the Philippines, students complete two years of such as automotive, manufacturing, construc- general nursing training, followed by two years in tion and electrical, tourism and hospitality, and separate tracks tailored to the needs of the Fili- health and community services. In the Project pino or German labor market and certification Addressing Labour Shortages Through Innova- requirements. The away track features addi- tive Labour Migration (PALIM), university graduates tional German language training and a fifth year received seven months of training in information of training in Germany with more rapid recognition and communication technology (ICT). On the other of certifications (CGD 2021a). For students who hand, the Viet Nam component of the German are not planning to work in Germany, this addi- PAM project is a much larger undertaking involving tional language training is likely to be unnecessary. a two-year certification in metal processing in line Similarly, the Labor Mobility Partnership (LaMP) with both Vietnamese and German occupational planned GSP between Colombia and Spain aims standards (An et al. 2023). Several medical and to begin with a basic elderly care training program nursing programs last longer and could be struc- in Colombia. For the away track, it offers the option tured as more complex GSPs (see Spotlight 1 to continue with more advanced nursing training and box 3.1). Longer programs can provide more in Spain (Geronimo, Zambonino, and Saucedo advanced and specialized skills at increased cost Huerta 2023). per trainee. While the training should benefit workers in both tracks, certain features of technical 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 87 B O X 3 . 1   Leveraging skill standardization by international medical schools for training and mobilizing health workers I nternational medical schools have played a crit- ical role in addressing health worker shortages over the last decades. In high-income countries, schools, Caribbean medical school graduates meet the requirements for passing foreign medical licensing exams. According to 2022 data, 89 percent of grad- medical schools are not able to keep up with the uates from St. George’s University in Grenada passed increased demand for physicians due to rapid aging. the US national medical licensure examination on Low-income countries face different health care chal- their first try, highlighting the significant opportuni- lenges but lack the financial resources and technical ties of standardizing international health workforce expertise for the expansion—and even establishment, training.1 St. George’s University is the largest of the in some cases—of medical schools. As a result, both Caribbean medical schools to train physicians who high- and low-income countries turn to private inter- are licensed in the United States. Its students undergo national medical schools to fill these gaps. a two-part training process, starting with two years in Grenada studying basic sciences, followed by clinical International medical schools provide valuable training at one of 75 affiliated hospitals and clinics in insights into the harmonization of training standards the United States, Canada, Grenada, or the United and certification processes for migrant health care Kingdom. professionals. Along with their proven track record of ensuring that skills and qualifications are recognized St. George’s University primarily relies on student in many destination countries, these schools exemplify tuition fees, but offers a variety of scholarships for both useful practices for aligning education programs with international and domestic students. Among these, regulatory requirements and demonstrate sustainable the CARE scholarship program is one of several part- financing models. St. George’s University in Grenada nerships with US medical centers, providing up to full and the Heimerer College in Kosovo both showcase tuition coverage for St. George’s University students. how partnerships between educational institutions, Since 1981, more than 22,000 St. George’s Univer- governments, and professional firms can create a sity graduates have entered the global health care framework that supports skill transfer and develop- system, 30 percent of whom go on to work in under- ment, contributing to a scalable pipeline of global served communities. The rural J-1 visa waiver is the health workers. main source for this pathway,2 enabling foreign physi- cians to serve in the United States if they agree to work St. George’s University and other Caribbean in regions with health professional shortages. medical schools. International medical schools in the Caribbean produce the third largest number of Heimerer College in Kosovo. Established in 2010 licensed physicians in the United States, accounting by a Kosovar-German diaspora investor and the for 19 percent of the total, following the United States Heimerer Schule (a collection of vocational schools and Canada at 77 percent and India at 22 percent in Germany), Heimerer College is a privately governed (FSMB 2023). Because their curriculum and training educational institution in Kosovo that prepares have been modeled closely on that of foreign medical workers for domestic and foreign health care markets.   Data and information on St. George’s University are drawn from the university’s website, https://www.sgu.edu/. 1 2   Rural Health Information Hub, “Rural J-1 Visa Waiver” web page, https://www.ruralhealthinfo.org/ topics/j-1-visa-waiver. (continued) 88 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N B O X 3 . 1   Leveraging skill standardization by international medical schools for training and mobilizing health workers (continued) The college offers five accredited undergraduate opportunities. Like St. George’s University, Heimerer degrees and five master’s-level degrees, including College assists students with visa applications and in nursing, professional education in health, speech connects them directly with affiliated employers. Since therapy, and occupational therapy.3 The curriculum 2019, the college has trained over 1,500 students, is designed to meet health accreditation standards 95 percent of whom have secured employment in both Kosovo and Germany and follows a Global after graduation, with around 80 percent working Skill Partnership model, with primary training in Kosovo in Kosovo (Beqiri 2024). The example of Heimerer and migration opportunities to Germany. Graduates College ultimately underscores the great potential from Kosovo who opt for the German health care track for standardizing health training for foreign markets receive on-the-job and language training in Germany. and the benefits of leveraging diaspora engagement Heimerer College is funded by student tuition fees, for strengthening skill partnerships and health care and German employers cover the costs of language capacity. courses for those taking advantage of migration 3   Information is from the Heimerer College website, https://kolegji-heimerer.eu/. Working through existing A major benefit of GSPs is the potential to mobi- training institutions lize significant financial resources and expertise to improve local training institutions. GSPs can take advantage of existing training systems and have the potential to improve The APTC presents a useful lesson in how part- their quality and capacity. A critical element of nerships with local training institutions can be training design within a GSP is whether it occurs used to strengthen the quality and capacity parallel to or through existing education and of those institutions. In its first decade, the training systems. Working through existing insti- APTC mostly operated through country offices tutions reduces the need for GSPs to invest in and campuses within partner training institutions new infrastructure, establish relationships with to deliver only Australian-accredited courses. industry associations and employers, or set up However, there was a gradual movement toward new systems for recruitment and job placement. deepening engagement with local technical and This can save significant financial resources vocational education and training partners, and and time. On the other hand, many developing the launch of Stage 3 in 2018 involved a strategic countries suffer from poor-quality education and shift to increase technical and vocational training training systems, whose drawbacks include inex- strengthening and become more embedded in perienced and poorly trained teachers, providers local institutions. This shift was based on the who are not held accountable for the quality of finding that the previous “enclave” delivery their training, and an overall lack of funding and system was not scalable or cost-effective (DFAT technology (World Bank, UNESCO, and ILO 2023). 2021). Since the launch of Stage 3, the APTC has 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 89 provided funding and expertise to build the capa- experience in the specific tasks required by a job, bility of a broad range of partners such as training with access to the most recent technology and providers, training regulatory authorities, civil knowledge being employed by firms competing in service organizations, and government agencies. the private market. Internships or apprenticeships This work has included developing or improving allow firms to train workers for their specific needs curricula, national qualifications, and teaching and to screen top candidates for hire. For trainees, resources; upgrading infrastructure; training they provide the opportunity to demonstrate their practitioners; and advocating for improved inclu- productive potential, develop skills, and learn sivity in training systems (APTC 2022). The APTC’s about an industry. An example is in the medical Aged Care Training Hub in Fiji is a good example sector, where doctors and nurses need to obtain of improving training delivery by small providers. prior experience in hospitals and residences The training venue has been designed to meet before being awarded certification. Therefore, Australian standards for elderly care training and in addition to being a cost-effective way to train, is made available to local training providers for a on-the-job training can facilitate a smooth tran- small co-investment fee. The work has benefited sition between training institutions and the private heavily from the expertise and resources of TAFE market. In the APTC, the hospitality and cookery Queensland, which is one of Australia’s largest programs require industry work placements that vocational training providers and implements the include specific tasks and activities outlined in APTC on behalf of the Australian Department of Australian training guidelines. If participants do Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). not meet these requirements, TAFE Queensland cannot award them Australian qualification. In some cases, working within national training systems may make a GSP more complex to Additional training, in the classroom or on the initiate, but it can help to facilitate greater job, can occur in the destination country for the scalability and cost-effectiveness in the long away track. On-the-job training could comple- term. In some cases, it may be faster to initiate ment vocational training in the origin country for partnerships with a private training provider, espe- participants in the away track, so long as the tasks cially one with expertise in targeted skills training. being implemented by hiring firms at origin and Capacity constraints among these providers, destination are sufficiently comparable. If this is relative to a national system, might make it more not the case, the home and away tracks can start challenging to scale the program, however. The with classroom-based training and then transition cost-effectiveness of small-scale, high-quality into separate apprenticeships in each country. training will be limited by low economies of scale. This approach may allow participants in the away track to receive more specialized training, capitalizing on the advanced technology and On-the-job training knowledge often present in destination country firms. For example, the THAMM Plus follow-up Training at origin should ideally include to the German Agency for International Coop- on-the-job components, such as intern- eration’s (GIZ’s) THAMM labor mobility scheme ships and apprenticeships, as a complement with Tunisia, Morocco, and the Arab Republic of to classroom-based training for all trainees Egypt targets skilled workers who have already whether staying home or planning to emigrate. completed training and gained work experi- On-the-job training gives workers direct ence in their field as well as future apprentices 90 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N who are placed in vocational training positions Training components in PALIM included time in Germany (GIZ 2024a). After completing two management and perseverance. At the same to three years of vocational training in Germany, time, many Moroccan employers expressed a the apprentice candidates can work as skilled desire for improved training in communication, workers. Sectors include hotel and catering, elec- project management, and work independence trical trades, construction, information technology, (Rodriguez 2023). industrial mechanics, and baking (Marchand 2023a). Similarly, the Enhancing Tunisian Youth Language skills are an important entry require- Employability through Professional Internships ment and are essential for migrants’ social and in Belgian Companies project, implemented by economic integration at destination. If there is the International Organization for Migration and a language difference between countries of origin the government of Belgium, provides short-term and destination, programs may often require prior internship opportunities for migrants to gain skills language skills as an entry requirement and offer abroad before returning home to work. top-up language training prior to migration. Prior knowledge of English is required in the APTC for most programs. English was also required in Incorporating foundational PALIM for Moroccans entering ICT training. This is skills, language, and common in bilateral migration agreements more predeparture training broadly. For example, the Republic of Korea’s Employment Permit System—a temporary migra- GSPs can also consider foundational skills tion program for low-skill workers—requires training that increases employability across applicants to pass a mandatory Korean language many occupations and labor markets. Founda- test before being approved for a visa; this is viewed tional skills include basic literacy and numeracy; as necessary to ensure a positive experience for socioemotional skills such as communication, both migrants and employers (Cho, Denisova, and teamwork, and leadership skills; as well as a Khadka 2018). Though language requirements range of additional soft skills such as organiza- may vary depending on sector—for example, they tion, time management, and perseverance. These are more important for elderly care or nursing than nontechnical skills increase employability across for ICT or engineering—basic proficiency is essen- many sectors and make workers more effective at tial for migrants’ social and economic integration. learning on the job. There is evidence that founda- tional skills are increasingly valued by employers, Language training can be incorporated into and training programs are often more effective the training program for the away track, and when they include foundational skill components ideally basic language proficiency is achieved (Cabus, Napierala, and Carretero 2021). Digital before migration occurs. As is often done in skills are also increasingly becoming useful or previous skilled migration pilots, GSPs can offer necessary across many occupations. Many intensive language training for the away track existing training and migration programs offer in the origin country. For example, various pilot foundational and digital skills training, especially migration programs with Germany have funded for adults who have had little formal schooling. intensive German language training to the B1 In the APTC, short courses and microcredentials level for participants before they migrate. This for foundational and digital skills were introduced was done in the Accessing Overseas Employ- in response to industry demand (APTC 2018). ment Opportunities for Moroccan Youth project, 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 91 in which Moroccan youth received the opportunity regarded as a model for predeparture training, to migrate to Germany and complete apprentice- the Philippine Department of Migrant Workers’ ships in the hospitality sector. This was also the predeparture orientation seminar provides infor- case in the Trabajadores Colombianos Espe- mation on employment laws, settlement (housing, cializados para Alemania (Colombian Workers education, health care), and consular services in Specialized for Germany, TEAM) project. While the destination country as well as financial literacy language training can continue in the destina- (Ang and Tiongson 2023). tion country, it is important to ensure that trainees are sufficiently proficient before departure. The Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agree- Participant selection and ment was implemented in 2008. However, the eligibility requirements majority of the Filipino nurses were unable to practice within three years of migration because Eligibility requirements for GSP training will they failed to pass the written licensing exam— depend on various characteristics depending highlighting the importance of ensuring language on the sector requirements and goals of the proficiency early on to reduce brain waste (Yagi GSP. As figure 3.1 shows, these include the level et al. 2014). Under its Economic Partnership of education and field of study, technical qualifi- Agreement with Japan, nurses from Viet Nam cations of candidates including work experience had a higher pass rate (45.7 percent) than those or existing certifications, nontechnical skills such from the Philippines (15.9 percent) and Indonesia (11.5 percent), due in part to the Government of Viet Nam’s funding support for Japanese language training while still at home (Tanaka and Yoshimura F I G U R E 3 . 1   There are various possible 2024). selection criteria for GSP participants The away track can also include additional predeparture training components that prepare trainees for migration and living abroad. These Technical Education experience include cultural training and informational classes and field of and study regarding travel and accommodations, legal certifications status, work contracts, and rights and access to services in the country of destination, all of which can help prepare people for migration and to decide whether they are interested in migrating Language Socioeconomic in the first place. General life skills for living and status skills working in the destination are also critical to ensure integration and quality of life, especially for trainees from rural areas or who have never lived away from home. Moroccan trainees under PALIM Demographic profile acquired knowledge on culture, rights and duties, and housing in Belgium (Rodriguez 2023). Savings and financial literacy courses can also prepare migrants for increased earnings abroad. Widely Note: GSP = Global Skill Partnership. 92 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N as language, current labor market status such be considered to limit the share that migrates— as current employment, and targeting factors although in this case, the best solution is to like socioeconomic status or demographic increase the size of the GSP to meet employer group. When necessary, prior knowledge can be demand both at home and abroad. assessed through tests and interviews. For higher-skill sectors, eligibility requirements Short-term training in many mid-skill sectors need to balance development goals with the may require candidates to enter with a certain employment needs of firms. Firms in the destina- level of education and experience. In the APTC, tion country will often prefer workers with as much most skilled trade programs require some degree existing experience and as many qualifications of industry experience or prior certification, as well and skills as possible. If the entry requirements into as the ability to complete a language, literacy, the training program become higher and candi- and numeracy (LLN) assessment, as well as a dates become more qualified, then the origin vocational knowledge assessment. These assess- country will suffer more from brain drain when ments also help provide trainers with information students choose the away track. This is depicted on what kind of additional support each student in figure 3.2 where both the students in the home may need to successfully complete their course and away tracks have the initial skill (or human of study. Applicants to PALIM were required to capital) level labeled “admission skill requirement.” have a college degree, in part because of the This requirement is lower for the mid-skill sector need to comply with visa requirements. They were than the high-skill sector, as the figure illustrates. also required to pass a technical exam with ques- The training program established under the GSP tions primarily about logic as well as an interview increases the human capital of the students until assessing skills such as communication, English language proficiency, and analytical thinking (Flamand 2021). F I G U R E 3 . 2   GSPs may be less attractive for origin countries as entry skill Trainees may be required to meet more requirements increase, which is often advanced skill requirements and pass inter- the case for higher-skill sectors views with destination employers to enter the Midskill se tor High-skill se tor away track. For example, in order to be eligible Home Away Home Away for migration in PALIM, trainees had to demon- tra k tra k tra k tra k strate high performance during training and on the final exam, and pass interviews with a poten- tial employer. Selecting the most skilled and successful trainees for the away track may be Graduation skill necessary to incentivize participation by desti- requirement nation firms but may reduce short-term benefits for the origin economy. For this reason, GSPs Admission skill should aim to prioritize skill gains in the home requirement track when the curriculum has more advanced entry and exit requirements for the away track. In situations where the majority of graduates are Skills gain with GSP Skills loss with GSP being recruited by the destination, quotas can Note: GSP = Global Skill Partnership. 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 93 the level labeled “graduation skill requirement.” Designing training to be Again, as shown by the figure, the origin country accessible and inclusive gains from the increased skills of students in the home track, but loses the initial skills of workers GSPs should not require trainees to be unem- who migrate through the away track since those ployed before participating, which is the skills were provided by existing training systems requirement in some labor market and skill before the GSP. Increasing the admission require- development programs. While requiring trainees ments in a high-skill sector might reduce the net to be unemployed may increase short-term benefit of the GSP for the origin country since the employment gains, it excludes candidates who lost human capital of the students in the away are currently working but have the potential to track is larger. This trade-off is a primary reason be successful participants and who could benefit why, in many circumstances, GSPs may be a from improving their skills and skill level of employ- stronger fit for mid-skill as opposed to high-skill ment. For example, in THAMM-GIZ, Tunisian sectors. To be clear, a GSP with advanced entry participants were mostly working before entering requirements may still offer a net benefit if the gain the program and moving to Germany, but were not in the home track is larger than the loss of skilled satisfied with their jobs or were not able to work as workers in the away track. The long-term gains many hours as they wanted to (Marchand 2023b). for origin countries are also larger than depicted Nevertheless, to reduce brain drain impact, the in figure 3.2, considering the additional benefits selection process prioritized people with fixed the away track presents in terms of remittances, term contracts or low income. In a context where knowledge transfers, and return migration, as well large numbers of workers are underemployed, any long-term improvements in the origin country’s it is highly restrictive to only admit unemployed training systems. trainees, especially if people are frequently entering and exiting unemployment. With this balance in mind, it is essential to engage the private sector in key decisions GSPs should include female-dominated regarding recruitment and selection of partici- sectors and can help women enter tradition- pants. For instance, at the design stage of PALIM, ally male-dominated sectors. As discussed in it was decided that trainees would be non-ICT chapter 1, female education rates have caught up college graduates rather than ICT graduates. with those of males in much of the world, and yet The intention was not to encourage emigration female unemployment rates remain high. Women of ICT graduates, given that this was identified are increasingly migrating for employment rather as a high-demand sector in Morocco. However, than for family reasons. Many of the sectors non-ICT graduates proved less attractive candi- facing expected shortages in global demand are dates for Belgian firms. Some Belgian employers female dominated, including caregiving, health, were not aware of this change in the eligibility personal services, and the hospitality industry. A criteria, underlining the importance of engaging large share of manufacturing workers, including with the private sector throughout the entirety machine operators and assemblers, are women. of training design (Rodriguez 2023). Firms and Almost half of APTC full-qualification graduates governments can agree on a solution that meets are women, as are the majority of graduates who the development goals of the origin country without compromising the employability of grad- uates in either country. 94 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N go to work in Australia.2 In other sectors, GSPs and increase development gains by including those vocational training programs can more broadly who benefit the most. help to increase female representation. Glob- ally, women are less likely than men to enroll in Inclusive program design can be financed vocational training, or to enroll in the fields that through cost sharing with development orga- are generally most lucrative. There are various nizations or stakeholders interested in equity ways in which GSP design can help close this and social impact. When steps to increase inclu- gap, including by providing flexible course times sivity increase the cost of delivery, the budget and childcare options, offering safe and inclu- can be supplemented with financing from inter- sive learning environments, hiring female trainers, national development organizations. Funds may and expanding outreach to women (World Bank, also come from the destination country seeking UNESCO, and ILO 2023). to increase the inclusivity and development impact of its programs. For example, the Austra- GSPs should strive to be accessible and inclu- lian government–funded APTC, under its Gender sive for marginalized populations, including Equity, Disability, and Social Inclusion Strategic refugees and internally displaced people, Framework, has various initiatives across partic- through flexible course delivery and provi- ipating Pacific countries including training of sion of stipends, transportation, and housing students and partners in gender-based violence to bring people to training centers. In most and sexual harassment prevention; disability cases, it will be more feasible to conduct training inclusion training for staff; courses in construction in centralized and urban areas. Participation from and plumbing designed specifically for women; more remote regions may only be possible if trans- additional marketing and recruitment for women, portation and housing are provided to trainees. people with disabilities, and people in remote The West African Football Academy in Ghana, regions; and digital microcredentials designed to for instance, provides players with accommo- increase the participation of these groups (APTC dation and formal education services between 2024). training facilities and schools, in addition to their core football training regimen. Increasing inclu- Hybrid delivery of vocational training is sion of workers with disabilities requires a range becoming a feasible way to simultaneously of actions, from addressing misconceptions and improve cost-effectiveness and program discrimination to adapting training delivery and inclusivity. The COVID-19 experience showed infrastructure. There are several ways that refu- that many courses can be delivered remotely, gees and internally displaced people could also especially if the training does not require the use be included in GSPs (box 3.2). Finally, the most of physical equipment and as Internet access vulnerable populations often have the least flex- becomes more widely available and reliable. ibility in terms of being able to take time off work; For example, APTC microcredentials can be they benefit the most from flexible course times, completed on a laptop or mobile device and delivery methods, stipends, or loans that allow offer training in areas such as digital literacy them to focus entirely on training. Each of these and communication technology. This reflects a steps may increase the cost of delivery, but they broader trend across technical and vocational training in developing countries in which micro- credentials are being used to teach skills not part of the formal national training system. In the 2   Information provided by the APTC in May 2024. 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 95 B O X 3 . 2   Including refugees in GSPs G lobal Skill Partnerships (GSPs) can potentially serve as a tool to create skills training and onward migration opportunities for refugees. In this training standards domestically. In designing GSPs for refugees, it is imperative to provide skills training and migration opportunities not only for refugees but also model, the away track would allow for resettlement to for host communities to foster inclusivity and social a third country with which the host country has a bilat- cohesion and mitigate potential resentment. eral agreement, effectively transforming host countries At the same time, GSPs for refugees introduce into origin points for their mobility. For example, the additional layers of complexity that require careful Labor Mobility Partnership (LaMP) has conducted consideration. One critical challenge is obtaining feasibility assessments for programs in Mexico and employment authorization in both the host country Peru that would provide training opportunities to refu- and potential destination markets, as different visa gees who may face demand in overseas markets categories treat refugees and asylees differently. (Geronimo, Zambonino, and Saucedo Huerta 2023). There is limited scope for a home track if refugees Talent Beyond Boundaries has successfully demon- lack the right to work or move internally in the host strated the potential to resettle skilled refugees through country—legally or in practice. Moreover, refugees, firm matching, highlighting unique opportunities for having fled fragile and conflict-affected areas, may collaboration among host countries, international require additional access to legal and psychosocial organizations, and private sector partners abroad.1 services in addition to formal training. Financing For cities with significant refugee populations, GSPs models will also vary, as the country of origin may can help alleviate labor market pressure by training be less likely to provide support, while international refugees for foreign markets, assisting with reskilling organizations and destination countries may be more for the host country’s labor market, and enhancing willing to cofinance. 1   Talent Beyond Boundaries, “Connecting Skilled Refugees with Jobs Internationally” web page, https://www. talentbeyondboundaries.org/talentcatalog?&. Philippines, after providing online microcreden- content learning models. Since its inception in tials to more than 1 million adult learners during 2013, the program has provided equitable and the pandemic, the Technical Education and Skills quality education to refugee and host commu- Development Authority published guidance on nity students through connectivity and digital launching microcredential courses with important resources. To date, more than 271,000 refugee lessons for other countries (TESDA 2021). Creating and host community children, along with 4,500 options for hybrid participation can both reduce teachers, have benefited from the initiative (Voda- the cost per trainee and increase flexibility to fone Foundation News 2023). benefit workers with demanding schedules. The Instant Network Schools program, a collabora- Finally, GSPs should have mechanisms to tion between the Vodafone Foundation and the recognize the existing skills of workers who United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees lack formal qualifications. Many countries have (UNHCR), showcases the great potential of digital a high prevalence of informal workers who do 96 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N not have formal certifications but acquired many professional licensing requirements are bureau- skills on the job. When certifications are required, cratically harder and human capital requirements skill tests with recognition of prior learning can are higher in higher-income countries, and there help increase participation by these workers. may be strong reluctance to recognize credentials Many lower- and middle-income countries such gained in lower-income countries. Furthermore, as Brazil, India, Nepal, and South Africa have skills recognition systems can act as monopo- recently made efforts to provide recognition of listic entry barriers—a challenge for labor mobility prior learning to workers in various sectors; these schemes in general. Some professional associa- can provide a useful blueprint for GSPs that seek tions, which may advocate for requiring certain to increase the participation of informal sector occupations to be filled only by their citizens, workers (World Bank, UNESCO, and ILO 2023). develop the licensing requirements themselves. In GSPs, skills recognition is embedded by design. When origin and destination govern- 3.2 Skills recognition ments and employers are involved, it is easier to recognize certifications, competencies, and Skills recognition is essential to any labor qualifications in the destination. The APTC, for mobility scheme, including GSPs; lack of it example, is implemented by an Australian govern- would result in brain waste, in which migrants ment–accredited education and training provider, are forced to work in jobs below their skill TAFE Queensland, which issues certificates and levels and qualifications. Every country has diplomas that are recognized by employers both its own qualification assessment requirements in Australia and the Pacific. In PAM, a preexisting and recognition systems. To obtain a license and two-year vocational training for metal processing practice in the United States, for instance, physi- was adapted to align with German qualification cians need to pass the national medical licensure standards, in partnership with Viet Nam’s Depart- examination and meet education, examination, ment for Vocational Education and Training, and experience requirements at the state level. LILAMA2 International Technology College, and Even if migrant workers have the requisite skills, employers in Viet Nam and Germany (figure 3.3). they would not be employed in many occupations After obtaining the certificate in metal processing without formal skills recognition. For example, in from Viet Nam, workers are more quickly and easily the early stages of the GIZ Triple Win program, able to go through Germany’s formal recognition meeting adjustment qualifications in Germany took process (An et al. 2023). up to two years, forcing nurse participants to work below their level of qualification during this period A useful starting point for skills recognition is (Schneider 2023). In any regulated profession, lack an assessment of origin countries’ education of licensing can result in brain waste as workers and training standards. Destination countries engage in lower-skill or informal employment. must develop mechanisms to evaluate whether origin countries’ standards for the target skill Skill and credential recognition may be partic- or occupation are equivalent to their own. To ularly challenging for migrants going from understand how adaptable worker skills and lower- to higher-income countries, where experiences in sending countries are to European skills recognition standards are often high and labor markets, for instance, Germany’s Interna- can act as monopolistic entry barriers. Often, tional Placement Services under the Federal 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 97 F I G U R E 3 . 3   How PAM developed its skills recognition system in Viet Nam An existing two-year Certificate in metal processing vocational program was issued by TVET provider in implemented with German Viet Nam aligns with German firms in Dong Nai, training standards Viet Nam Viet Nam’s TVET authority and Each worker goes provider and Vietnamese and through individual German employers modified skills recognition In the program to align with Vietnamese Germany curricula and German qualification Note: PAM = Partnership Approaches for Development-Oriented Vocational Training and Labour Migration; TVET = technical and vocational education and training. Employment Agency is conducting analyses ensures that workers do not work at jobs below in 27 countries, with a focus on their education their qualifications once they arrive at destina- curricula and the likelihood of the credentials they tion. For example, the Skill Verification Program issue to be recognized in Germany (Hooper 2021). administers assessments and issues certificates In THAMM-Enabel, Belgian technical agencies in Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka for and training centers conducted multiple missions employment in Saudi Arabia (ESCAP 2024). If the to analyze the curricula of training centers in recognition process must remain in the destination Morocco and whether they correspond to those in country, it can at least be shortened if educa- Belgium.3 These assessments are also an oppor- tion and training standards at origin are aligned tunity for destination countries to help their origin with those at destination. To reduce the time country counterparts, such as public employ- involved in meeting adjustment qualifications in ment services and vocational training providers, Germany, the Triple Win program worked with Phil- develop the institutional capacity to implement ippine universities to add components of German skills recognition that is recognized by foreign health care training curricula, such as geriatrics, countries. to the universities’ bachelor of nursing programs (Schneider 2023). This allows immediate recogni- To minimize brain waste, the process of formal tion of qualifications in Germany. On average, the recognition of qualifications should be initi- time it takes to recognize nursing qualifications in ated while workers are still at the origin so Germany from certain participating countries has the recognition process at the destination can been reduced to less than 12 months (Luciano and be shortened. Moving the formal recognition of Schimpf 2021). qualifications from the destination to the origin The appropriate skills recognition mechanisms should be identified. Examples of such mecha- 3   Consultations with representatives from Enabel in April nisms include formal recognition of qualifications, 2024. 98 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N mutual recognition agreements (MRAs), devel- MRAs can be overly costly, lengthy, and opment and harmonization of standards, and complex to use or create exclusively for GSPs. sector-recognized certifications, which are by Key challenges to using MRAs include potentially no means mutually exclusive. Choosing which prohibitive resource implications of establishing skills recognition mechanism to embed in a GSP and maintaining an entity for MRA enforcement, depends on the context. modification, and periodic renegotiation (Mendoza et al. 2017); language and cultural differences; Existing MRAs can be leveraged in target and social acceptance. For instance, of the eight occupations. MRAs are a key mechanism professions included in the MRAs of the Associ- through which regulatory authorities enable the ation of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), only mobility of workers across boundaries. They also accountancy and engineering services—and to promote continuous engagement between regu- a lesser extent, architecture—are gaining trac- lators, thereby improving alignment of educational tion.5 New MRAs face similar challenges, such as and occupational licensing standards. Instead of low alignment between systems of professional developing new MRAs, which is time and resource regulation in origin and destination countries, intensive, GSPs can leverage and embed existing professional associations in destination countries MRAs. MRAs may be grouped into different types, advocating those certain occupations be filled with some of the more prominent examples taking only by citizens, and (mis)perceptions in coun- place at the regional level (box 3.3). In the Euro- tries not seeking to recruit workers from abroad pean Union (EU), for instance, aside from inclusion that MRAs result in only skill outflows (Ziguras and of all regulated professions in its member states Barker 2024). (Ziguras and Barker 2024), an MRA provides automatic recognition of professional qualifica- tions for seven professions.4 Under the MRA of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Single 3.3 Assessing the feasibility of legal Market and Economy initiative, eligible CARICOM nationals who would like to work in another country participating in the initiative can apply pathways for a skill certificate (CARICOM 2001). Meanwhile, the maritime industry provides good practices in A visa pathway is an integral feature of a skills recognition at the global level and within the GSP to ensure migrants can pursue employ- industry. A major maritime training center in the ment and integration support at the country of Philippines, Magsaysay, is an example of a GSP destination. Each GSP will be integrated into the in the private sector (box 3.4). broader migration policies, legal frameworks, and institutional processes of the destination country. Therefore, it is critical to review the prerequisites for work permits and visa issuance at the outset 4   European Commission, “Automatic Recognition” web page, https://single-market-economy.ec.europa.eu/ single-market/services/free-movement-professionals/ 5  Invest in ASEAN, “ASEAN Mutual Recognition recognition-professional-qualifications-practice/ Arrangements” web page, https://investasean.asean. automatic-recognition_en. These professions are archi- org/asean-free-trade-area-agreements/view/757/ tects, dentists, doctors, midwives, nurses, pharmacists, newsid/868/asean-mutual-recognition-arrangements. and veterinary surgeons. html. 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 99 B O X 3 . 3   Types of mutual recognition agreements B ilateral single-profession mutual recogni- tion agreements (MRAs) involve two national authorities that regulate the same profession. For bilateral comprehensive MRAs include Chile, with nine agreements (Cárdenas 2019); the Trans-Tasman agreement between Australia and New Zealand; and example, Argentina has bilateral MRAs on university that of Quebec (Canada) with France and Switzer- and higher education degrees with various countries. land. Studies on the European Union and Australia To simplify skills recognition, some of its agreements and New Zealand Trans-Tasman MRAs showed that include automatic validation and expedited proto- economic integration and mutual recognition incen- cols (Government of India 2023). Meanwhile, the Hong tivize regulators to cooperate and reduce barriers, Kong Institute of Engineers (in Hong Kong SAR, China) resulting in positive economic impacts and cost has 23 bilateral single-profession MRAs. Indonesia reductions (Cernat 2022; Correia de Brito, Kauffmann, and Spain have an MRA on fishing vessel personnel, and Pelkmans 2016; Shah and Long 2009). which includes provisions for regular inspections of When the use of MRAs is not feasible, development training centers in both countries and is expected and harmonization of standards offers an alterna- to better protect the welfare of Indonesian migrant tive skills recognition mechanism with its own set of workers who are working on Spanish fishing vessels advantages and disadvantages. International stan- (ESCAP 2024). dards may facilitate skill assessments, but are difficult Multilateral single-profession MRAs promote recog- to develop (Correia de Brito, Kauffmann, and Pelkmans nition between three or more countries and can be 2016). The maritime sector offers an example of skills more impactful. A good example is the Washington recognition based on development of and compli- Accord for engineers, which has been signed by 23 ance with international standards, although this may countries and territories so far (IEA 2024). Additional not be possible for other sectors (box 3.4). However, examples include the Seoul Accord for computing development of regional qualification frameworks— and information technology–related programs (ABET such as the European Qualifications Framework and 2024), the Sydney Accord for engineering technology, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Dublin Accord for technicians. Qualifications Reference Framework—shows promise, despite being highly technical and time-intensive to Comprehensive MRAs span all regulated professions design and challenging to implement with member that seek to integrate signatory countries’ service states (Cedefop 2019). Several regional qualification sectors. Examples of comprehensive MRAs at the frameworks are in the process of being implemented regional level include that of the European Union— (Cedefop, ETF, and UNESCO 2017). Harmonization which is the world’s most extensive, as it includes all of training standards can be challenging to attain regulated professions in all its member states—and and even more challenging to maintain. In several the Mexico Convention of 1902 between nine Latin instances, negotiations to harmonize training took American countries, which is one of the oldest MRAs decades and required high levels of investments to in the world (Ziguras and Barker 2024). Examples of complete (Mendoza et al. 2017). of the design process. Legal work permits often approaches; the most appropriate arrangement have specific eligibility criteria, which must be for each GSP will depend on the specific context thoroughly deliberated when formulating a GSP to of the destination country. Certain elements must ensure the predictability and efficiency of workers’ be addressed for any GSP to function effec- mobility. The GSP framework allows for various tively, including timely visa issuance, fulfillment 100 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N B O X 3 . 4   Skills recognition in the maritime sector T he seafarer skills recognition system is distinc- tive and can serve as a model for other sectors seeking to standardize curricula across countries. providing a crucial record of career experience and certifications, although not all countries have ratified the convention. Instead of mutual recognition protocols, seafarers Portability of insurance is another distinctive feature working in global shipping are governed by the of the maritime sector. The industry established a International Maritime Organization (IMO). The IMO protection and indemnity insurance system whereby enforces global standards in seafarer training and shipowners shoulder the risks they face outside of education, notably under the International Convention the vessel itself. Protection and indemnity clubs cover on Standards of Training, Certification and Watch- health, accident, and death claims among other risks. keeping for Seafarers (STCW) 1978, which signatory countries are required to enforce. Founded in 1948 in the Philippines, Magsaysay oper- ates in various sectors, including shipping and logistics, The IMO recognizes countries that can prove their human resource services, outsourcing of other busi- commitment to maintaining high standards in maritime ness processes, and education and training: it is a de education, training, and certification through a “white facto private sector example of a GSP. Magsaysay list” system. The maritime authority in these countries has long been a key player in educating and training regularly audits and accredits maritime colleges and seafarers for both its international and coastal fleets, training centers in their countries. The certifications positioning itself as a pioneer in establishing the Philip- issued by white-listed countries are recognized by pines as a major provider of human resource services all port state authorities globally. The seafarers with for shipping companies worldwide. Today, Filipinos complete STCW certificates can work on any ship make up approximately 30 percent of the 1.2 million regardless of nationality, with further special accred- seafarers in the global workforce (Santos 2022). To itation required for certain countries with additional maintain a strong talent pipeline, Magsaysay has requirements. invested heavily in maritime education and training, Other key governance frameworks are the Mari- encompassing STCW certification, upskilling for higher time Labor Convention 2006, often referred to as roles, and the development of competencies needed the Seafarers' Bill of Rights; and the Seafarers’ Iden- to meet increasingly complex and stringent global tity Documents Convention (C185). The Maritime safety regulations. In addition, Magsaysay offers Labor Convention establishes minimum standards workforce solutions for global cruise lines and has for seafarer working conditions and recruitment. established hospitality and culinary training programs The C185 is an international system that recognizes at its schools in the Philippines and Indonesia. To date, a seafarer's national identity card, facilitating the 5,000 of its graduates are employed internationally, movement of seafarers and maritime professionals with another 1,000 working domestically, including as essential workers, enhancing maritime security, and within Magsaysay’s own local shipping company.1 1   Consultation with representatives from Magsaysay Group of Companies in March 2024. of financial and salary requirements, and align- the duration of the visa, the ability to transfer work ment of visa pathways with labor market demands permits, provisions for family reunification, and (figure 3.4). Additional features to consider include accessing social protection and pension systems. 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 101 F I G U R E 3 . 4   Legal pathways for GSPs must meet three mandatory requirements Predictable Appropriate Alignment with and timely skill and salary labor market visa issuance match demands Visa procedures involve bureaucratic German companies were unable to provide processing and are inherently a complex and trainees with salaries meeting the high thresholds generally lengthy process. For a visa pathway required by the visa (CGD 2021c). Football acad- to be considered for a GSP, migrants must be able emies in Africa aiming to transfer players to small to attain the visa within a reasonable amount of and medium clubs in Europe face similar salary time. The processing cycle from start to finish must requirements. Salaries offered by Dutch clubs be thoroughly analyzed to identify potential wait often fall short of satisfying the visa requirements times. Visa delays could jeopardize the program for foreign athletes. For an 18-year-old non-EU process, as labor needs and qualifications may player seeking to transfer to the Netherlands, the evolve by the time travel is approved. As such, minimum salary threshold is €250,000, while it prolonged wait times are likely to discourage is €500,000 for a 20-year-old.6 For the EU Blue both migrants and employers from engaging in Card designed for high-skilled non-EU/European the program. This was evident, for example, in Economic Area nationals seeking work and resi- the Youth, Employment, and Skills in Kosovo (YES) dence permits, the threshold varies by country but project, where migrants experienced a significant is typically around 1.5 times the average national backlog in visa processing (CGD 2021c). Early salary.7 In Germany in 2024, this rate was set coordination with migration agencies is critical to at €45,300 per year, and only slightly lower for explore ways to expedite the process. workers in bottleneck professions such as manu- facturing, mining, construction, and distribution GSP graduates should have access to visa management.8 The United States imposes a salary categories with appropriate salary and finan- minimum of $60,000 annually to obtain the H-1B cial prerequisites. Minimum salary requirements visa (US Department of Labor 2008). If a GSP are a standard practice for many visa categories, often serving to prevent abuse and exploitation by employers and to protect domestic workers from 6   Consultation with West African Football Academy representative in April 2024. unfair wage competition. However, it is essen- tial to ensure that GSP migrants obtain visas in 7   European Commission, EU Immigration Portal, “EU Blue Card” web page, https://immigration-portal.ec.europa. the appropriate categories, as excessively high eu/eu-blue-card_en. thresholds may hinder employers’ ability to hire 8  Make it in Germany, “EU Blue Card: Working, recent graduate and semiskilled workers. This was Studying, Living in Germany” web page, https://www. evident in the YES partnership, as participating make-it-in-germany.com/en/visa-residence/types/ eu-blue-card. 102 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N intends to operate through a pathway with salary with trade qualifications at skill level 3 were eligible restrictions, it will be crucial to engage employers for the Pacific Labor Scheme visa, they faced beforehand to ensure they can meet the threshold. challenges in securing employment in nonmet- ropolitan areas to which the visa was restricted Skill criteria must be carefully evaluated to (Curtain and Howes 2021a). The J-1 visa in the ensure that the skills acquired through GSP United States has a similar regional prerequisite, training align with visa pathway requirements. allowing foreign physicians to work in the United In many cases, work permits are contingent upon States provided they serve in regions with health the migrant passing a skills recognition examina- professional shortages. In recent years, more than tion—a requirement especially prevalent in the 1,000 physicians have been recruited through the health care sector. In Germany, foreign nurses are rural J-1 visa waiver program.10 required to pass the Anerkennung (recognition) exam to verify that their qualifications meet the Careful consideration of visa duration is standards set by the German authorities (Monarch crucial at the outset of a GSP to ensure that 2023). In some cases, applicants are also required the objectives of the partnership align with to pass a language proficiency exam before a the expectations of all stakeholders. Perma- work permit can be issued.9 Aligning training nent pathways provide stronger incentives for practices with foreign skill standards was initially employers to invest in skill development, as they a challenge for the APTC. While it provided inter- guarantee that their employees can remain with nationally recognized qualifications, these were them for an extended period. Moreover, they often not high enough to meet Australia’s skilled provide a lasting solution to address long-term migration criteria, which limited migration oppor- skill shortages by securing workers in areas where tunities for many graduates (Clemens, Graham, such shortages exist. Temporary pathways may and Howes 2014). be more politically feasible, as is the norm in many countries such as the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Beyond skills recognition, selected pathways countries as well many high-income East Asian must also ensure actual job opportunities exist countries, like Japan and Korea. In addition, in where visas are issued. Some governments countries where migration has become politically have restricted work permits for foreign workers contentious, governments prefer not to imple- to regions facing shortages, incentivizing employ- ment permanent migration programs. However, ment toward those specific areas. Visas restricted their restrictive nature can deter both employers to specific regions can present both opportuni- and migrants from participating in a tempo- ties and challenges for migrants, contingent on rary migration program. While mobility channels the type of GSP training and labor demand in the for high-skilled workers often offer permanent destination country. In the case of the APTC, it pathways to receiving countries, channels was discovered that the regional restrictions of for low-skilled migrants tend to be temporary the Pacific Labor Scheme did not correspond with (figure 3.5) (Cepla 2021). According to the Inter- the training received by APTC graduates and the national Organization for Migration, companies job opportunities available in areas covered by were reluctant to invest in some skills mobility the valid work permits. Although APTC graduates 10  Rural Health Information Hub, “Rural J-1 Visa   Bundesagentur für Arbeit, “Living, Studying, Working in 9 Waiver” web page, https://www.ruralhealthinfo.org/ Germany” web page, https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/en. topics/j-1-visa-waiver. 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 103 F I G U R E 3 . 5   High-skill sectors generally offer longer-term pathways 30 Low-skill se tor Mid-skill se tor High-skill se tor 20 % of pathways 10 0 1 3 6 7 8 9 10 12 24 36 100 200 Period of stay for pathway parti ipants in the ountry of destination (months) Source: CGD 2021d. partnerships with training when visa duration initial period, the test requirement is waived, and was limited (IOM 2024). Similarly, many prospec- employees are allowed to switch employers as tive migrants would not like to invest in training and they prefer (De Lange and Falkenhain 2024). In pathways that guarantee only a short-term dura- 2022, the EU Commission proposed new direc- tion. In some cases, temporary pathways will have tives for the EU single permit, granting migrants the the potential to transition into permanent visas. freedom to change employers within the permit’s Regardless of the duration offered, deliberations validity period. The rationale behind the new rules with stakeholders are essential to ensure align- is to reduce vulnerability to labor exploitation for ment with training and migration objectives. foreign workers within the EU.11 In addition to duration restrictions, work Migrant workers’ protection requires access permits are often linked to specific employers to social protection and family reunification and can restrict employees from changing provisions within pathway regulations. These employment without risking their visa status. are also crucial for ensuring adequate integra- Although some programs allow for employer tion and migrant safety in the destination country. changes, this process can be both costly and Inclusion of social security benefits for migrants burdensome. For instance, in the United States, and their families will allow them access to essen- employers seeking to hire a guest worker through tial social services, thereby aiding their well-being the H-1B program may face administrative costs and integration process. North-to-north migration that significantly increase hiring expenses, ranging flows, which account for about 23 percent of all from $2,301 to $6,301 (Norlander 2021). Condi- tional changes can also be restricted to time spent with an employer. Under the EU Blue Card system,  European Commission, Migration and Home 11 employers can request that authorities conduct a Affairs, “A Single Permit for Work” web page, https:// check of the labor market situation if an employee home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/migration-and- seeks to resign within the first 12 months. After this asylum/legal-migration-resettlement-and-integration/ work/single-permit-work_en. 104 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N global flows, typically offer better access to social nationals after residing for five years within the protection (Avato, Koettl, and Sabates-Wheeler EU. CARICOM and the Southern Cone Common 2010). The most vulnerable migrants are those Market (Mercosur) have similarly enhanced their moving within low-income regions, where formal systems, allowing migrants in the Latin American social safety nets are less developed, and many and Caribbean region to access protection in migrate without documentation. Seasonal workers different countries. specifically tend to not meet the eligibility criteria for social security benefits, owing to minimum In cases where there are no suitable pathways qualifying and residence periods and high levels or infrastructure to adequately accommo- of informality (Panhuys, Kazi Aoul, and Binette date the migration objectives of a GSP, new 2017). Even when migrants are eligible for social dialogues and pathways are encouraged. protection, they may face challenges accessing While some GSPs will have access to several services due to administrative, legal, and other suitable pathways to facilitate an away track, obstacles (ILO 2022). Ensuring that migrants and other, more unconventional, partnerships are their families have access to social protection, likely to encounter regulatory hurdles and oper- including education and labor market oppor- ational challenges. In instances where there has tunities for family members, will be crucial for been limited prior engagement in labor migration, sustained GSP involvement. If current pathways visa processing tends to be decentralized, and fail to offer adequate access to social protection there may be a lack of adequate infrastructure to and family reunification, it is vital to involve social streamline visa procedures. This issue is particu- partners and stakeholders in discussing broader larly relevant for smaller states with less diplomatic reforms or exemptions for the GSP. representation abroad (box 3.5) (Digital Explorers 2022). In these cases, program developers should Insufficient coordination of social security work with relevant stakeholders, including govern- between countries can hinder the portability ment agencies and employers, to establish the and transferability of social protection from required infrastructure. the country of origin. This situation is especially problematic for long-term migrants, as portable Negotiating entirely new visa arrangements pension systems are often unavailable (Panhuys, requires extensive dialogue among multiple Kazi Aoul, and Binette 2017). Without portability, governments and stakeholders and can take migrants risk financial loss from systems at desti- decades to reach agreement. The legal and nation or origin. Migrants who have contributed bureaucratic process of establishing a new to a pension fund in their destination country may migration channel is often slow and challenging, find themselves unable to access it upon returning and it can take many years before the pathway home. This lack of portable social protection is becomes fully operational (CGD 2021c). Moreover, likely to impede return migration and deny origin adequate administrative infrastructure is vital for countries—which are often developing coun- facilitating visa application processes, including tries—significant development benefits. The EU’s consular services, information systems for visa portable social protection system is currently the issuance and monitoring, and personnel training most advanced, guaranteeing extensive porta- to ensure compliance with legal and regulatory bility of social security entitlements across EU frameworks. New labor mobility schemes, partic- countries. Migrant workers can access social ularly pilot programs, thus tend to benefit from security and welfare benefits equal to that of EU working within existing agreements. 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 105 workers trained under the GSP could qualify. This B O X 3 . 5   The Digital Explorers evaluation will include the entire application program process for each pathway, paying close atten- tion to requirements that could impede the entry D igital Explorers was an innovative collab- oration between Lithuania and Nigeria, illustrating how countries with limited prior of GSP migrants into the country and labor market. Regardless of the challenges that may arise with legal pathways, it is crucial to maintain an ongoing engagement can successfully pioneer new path- dialogue with migrants and other stakeholders, ways. This European Union (EU)–funded initiative providing them with transparent and comprehen- aims to enhance digital talent development and sive information. mobility pathways between Nigeria and Lithua- nia’s information and communication technology (ICT) markets. In the face of significant migration regulatory barriers, especially concerning the EU Blue Card’s limitations for junior and midlevel 3.4 Working with the specialists, the program explored alternative pathways. The visa process between the two private sector and countries was highly decentralized due to the other key stakeholders lack of prior engagements, further complicated by the absence of consulates in Nigeria. However, GSPs can begin with stakeholder mapping to driven by the two participant countries’ mutual ensure that the right partners are involved interest in expanding ICT markets through skills from both origin and destination countries. and migration, the program remained committed Partners may include government agencies, to eliminating entry barriers for migration and employers and industry associations, education employment in Lithuania. Strong government and vocational training providers, trade unions, support and collaboration among various Lith- and development institutions. For example, the uanian and Nigerian stakeholders led to the APTC is led by Australia’s DFAT. DFAT commis- establishment of new visa centers in Nigeria, the sioned one of Australia’s leading education and enhancement of internal infrastructure, and the streamlining of visa processing. training providers, TAFE Queensland, as the imple- menting arm of the APTC; it in turn partners with Source: Digital Explorers 2022. public and private vocational training providers in the Pacific such as the Fiji National University, the National University of Samoa, Port Moresby Considering the time and cost constraints Technical College, and the University of the South associated with creating new migration chan- Pacific. The APTC works with industry associations nels, new GSPs should strive to operate within in the Pacific and Timor-Leste, such as the Fiji Hotel the framework of existing visas and policies and Tourism Association, the Samoa Plumbing whenever feasible. Enhancing established path- Association, the Pacific Tourism Organisation, and ways through coordinated efforts among migration the Vanuatu Chamber of Commerce and Industry authorities from both origin and destination coun- to ensure that course delivery meets the skills tries is likely to result in time and cost savings for needs of national employers and industry sectors the program, facilitating quicker implementation. (APTC 2020; Rodriguez 2023). It is important that Each GSP must conduct a thorough assessment all actors are involved from the beginning so they and mapping of existing pathways through which can be consulted on key design features, from 106 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N the selection of sectors to the details of training market intermediation mechanisms are already and certification processes. Effective stakeholder in place. However, they may face bottlenecks if engagement requires that each agency has a they do not have relevant government agencies clearly defined role, including its responsibilities on board. Stakeholder mapping should involve and privileges to influence the process. a review of all relevant government agencies and their role in migration management, skill The most fundamental actors are the private development, and international labor market sector employers and training providers, but intermediation. Key actors are likely to include GSPs are most likely to be successful if they public employment services, as these agencies engage with the right government agencies, have a large role to play in facilitating interna- including those responsible for finance, migra- tional labor market intermediation (figure 3.6). tion, labor, and skill development. Technically, They may also include sectoral ministries—for firms and training providers are the only actors example, the Ministry of Health, if the target occu- that absolutely must be involved, as they can pation is nurses. A possible governance structure independently implement a GSP on their own (as may include an interministerial task force with a in the cases of multinational companies, private lead agency, management under the office of medical schools, the maritime industry, and foot- the prime minister or president, and coordination ball academies) if the legal pathways and labor across government entities and other agencies. F I G U R E 3 . 6   Key stakeholders in PALIM include government agencies, employers, industry associations, and training providers in both Belgium and Morocco Federal Public Service Foreign Affairs, Foreign Trade and Ministry of Employment Development Cooperation (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) Belgian development agency National Agency for the Promotion of Employment and Skills Belgian Federation Moroccan Federation of Information for the Technology Industry Technology, Telecommunications Training provider Flemish Network of Enterprises and Offshoring Employers Flemish Service for Employment General Confederation and Vocational Training of Moroccan Enterprises Note: PALIM = Project Addressing Labour Shortages Through Innovative Labour Migration 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 107 It is particularly important to coordinate with available, employers report a variety of concerns. the private sector from an early stage. The In a recent survey of firms in member countries private sector should lead the dialogue to ensure of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation that GSPs meet their employment needs—partic- and Development (OECD), around half indicated ularly in defining candidate profiles, training that the most important consideration when curriculum and delivery, and the certification recruiting from abroad is that the candidate have process. Employers should also be involved in the necessary skills; others indicated speed, cost, discussions about the legal pathways. In partic- and predictability as the most important factors. ular, employers must feel confident that the legal Furthermore, respondents reported higher trust in pathways will allow candidates to remain with recruiters’ and intermediaries’ ability to properly them for a reasonable amount of time (Business screen candidates, but limited trust in professional Advisory Group on Migration 2024). Industry associations, universities, training providers, or associations and firms from both countries were public employment services in the origin country involved in PALIM program design, but they were (Business Advisory Group on Migration 2024). not always kept informed of key decisions. Belgian Many firms also prefer to work with countries industry associations and firms first proposed the where they have existing recruitment experience. skill profile of junior Java developers. This was vali- Thus, bringing employers on board with GSPs dated by Moroccan industry associations, but not requires building their trust in the quality of candi- individual Moroccan employers. Next, a Moroccan dates and migration processes. It is important to industry association proposed adjusting the eligi- work closely with them when selecting countries, bility criterion toward training non-ICT graduates candidate profiles, and screening mechanisms. rather than ICT graduates to reduce concerns around brain drain; some Belgian employers were Employers are more likely to participate not aware of this adjustment (Rodriguez 2023). Had when they see examples of successful inter- individual Moroccan employers been engaged national recruitment by other firms. Given directly and Belgian employers been informed the risks involved with international recruitment, of these adjustments, an alternative program especially for small and medium enterprises, could have been proposed that appeased all a powerful example can be set by larger firms parties—for example, training of non-ICT gradu- that have success with international recruitment. ates, with extended training including on-the-job For THAMM-Enabel, Enabel has worked hard to training components to more fully equip them to attract Belgian employers, experimenting with job meet employers’ skill needs (Rodriguez 2023). This days, digital platforms, and online forums to help also highlights the value of working directly with firms understand the program and meet potential employers rather than through industry associa- talent. Some firms were skeptical about partici- tions. pating because of the expected duration of the visa process, combined with uncertainty around Even when destination employers are candidate language skills and the cost of providing desperate for international recruitment, they housing for workers after arrival. Some were even- are often concerned about candidate quality. tually willing to participate after being sufficiently Employers often lack experience with international reassured about candidate quality through the recruitment because of the limited adequate chan- nels that exist, particularly to recruit mid-skill or technical trade workers. Even with legal pathways 108 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N example set by larger firms that had successfully intermediation, and migration. Training costs completed the process with positive results.12 typically involve improving and expanding capacity within an existing training system and sometimes Other actors, such as trade unions and the setting up a program from scratch. The process public, should be involved or consulted with begins with the fixed cost of program preparation, to mitigate risks of project opposition. Where which includes evaluating existing training systems applicable, trade unions need to be consulted and designing any needed changes in partner- in the early stages of the project to resolve any ship with all stakeholders (table 3.1). Training opposition. A communication strategy with the also involves fixed costs such as purchasing or public must also be defined to manage public renting new facilities and equipment, hiring and opinion. For example, PALIM articulated a win-win training trainers, and preparing new curricula narrative around teaching marketable skills and and skills recognition processes. Variable training reducing unemployment, and government agen- costs include the operational costs of candidate cies in Morocco such as the parliament and preselection and delivering trainings and certifi- Ministry of Employment coordinated on responses cation. Labor market intermediation includes the to questions about the project from citizens (Rodri- variable costs of facilitating firm interviews and guez 2023). placements in each country. Finally, migration costs include the upfront fixed costs of identi- fying the right visa pathways and dialogue with migration authorities in each country. Migration 3.5 Financing then involves many variable costs including prede- parture training, passport and visa fees, travel GSPs’ success depends on a clear and costs, health and security checks, and reloca- sustainable financial arrangement between tion stipends to support workers with housing and origin and destination country governments living expenses after arrival. Programs that involve and the private sector. This is a complicated temporary migration should also support return task, considering the variety of fixed and variable and reintegration, which may include additional costs associated with training, job placement, and skills recognition, travel costs, and job search migration; the different ways in which each compo- assistance at origin. As programs scale, migra- nent benefits each actor; and the capacity of tion and training costs further include expanding each actor to contribute financially. As discussed institutional capacity to oversee larger training in chapter 2, it is particularly important for firms at institutions and greater migration flows and visa destination to contribute, given their large gain issuance. Finally, a budget should be allocated to from participation. In the long term, sustainability M&E, which is typically a small expense relative to requires that each actor see its contribution as other categories (Dempster et al. 2022). fair and worthwhile. Costs can be divided according to how much GSP costs can loosely be divided into those each actor benefits—in particular, the destina- associated with training, labor market tion may more directly support the away track, while the origin supports the home track with assistance from development organizations. The costs of expanding training systems could   Consultations with representatives from Enabel in 12 be split between origin and destination country April 2024. 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 109 T A B L E 3 . 1   Cost components as a shared responsibility across the actors that benefit Fixed/ Expected Cost variable Detailed items cost size Fixed Program design; stakeholder engagement; expanding capacity for Medium training systems governance Training and New facilities/equipment; hiring and training trainers; preparing new High labor market curricula and skills recognition processes intermediation Variable Candidate preselection Small Operational costs of delivering training and certification High Facilitate firm interviews and placements in origin and destination countries Small Fixed Program design; stakeholder engagement; expanding capacity for Medium migration systems governance Variable Predeparture training; passport and visa fees; travel costs; health and Small Migration security checks Relocation support Medium Return and reintegration support (for temporary migration only) Medium Expanded institutional capacity to manage migration and visa issuance Medium Sources: Adhikari et al. 2021; Dempster et al. 2022. actors, with the destination contributing more to While GSPs may benefit from development the components that disproportionately benefit assistance at the start, they must have a plan the away track such as more advanced courses, for long-term financing; responsibility can shift skill certification, and costs of migration. There gradually to the private sector over time. As is no one-size-fits-all model, and understanding discussed, GSPs involve large upfront fixed costs, the incentives of governments and employers is and employers may not be willing to fund GSPs essential to adopting an appropriate financing until they have developed trust in the quality of model. In many examples, destination employers candidates and their ability to migrate in a timely have been willing to cover costs related to recruit- manner. This is especially true for smaller firms, ment, language training, predeparture training, which are less likely to have experience hiring migration, and skills recognition—for example, from abroad. For this reason, there is a role for under Germany’s Triple Win program (IOM 2024). international organizations or destination country governments to provide subsidies in the form of Cost sharing is important to avoid placing too development aid at the start of a program. After much responsibility on any single actor. In the incurring fixed costs and demonstrating posi- case of the APTC, funding has relied heavily on the tive results, financial responsibility can gradually DFAT. Early on, it was noted that relying entirely be transferred to firms, participants, and origin on Australian aid was unsustainable (Clemens, country governments (see Spotlight 4) (Adhikari Graham, and Howes 2014). Over the years, the et al. 2021). A good example lies in Accessing program has sought to increase co-investments Overseas Opportunities for Moroccan Youth. by Pacific Island governments, industry associa- This World Bank–funded program helped build tions, employers, and trainees (APTC 2021). capacity for international labor market interme- diation in Morocco and trust among German 110 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N firms in the quality of Moroccan candidates; this per trainee is expected to be high during pilots has increased the willingness of German firms to and to decrease substantially with scale. In PAM’s directly finance German language training and first 1.5 years, program costs per trainee fell from recruitment in Morocco.13 about €18,000–€20,000 to less than €10,000 (figure 3.7) (An et al. 2023). The diaspora can also be a source of financing for GSPs. For example, Heimerer College in Pris- Additional cost reduction mechanisms are an tina, Kosovo, is a health care training school that important piece of any sustainability financial produces graduates for both the German and strategy. In particular, training costs may be high Kosovar labor markets, and was founded with if they involve bringing in teachers and equipment investment from members of the Kosovar diaspora from the destination country (IOM 2024). This was in Germany (box 3.1). This was a private sector the case with the APTC, when most of its teachers response to market demand for health workers in were Australian expatriates (Chand, Clemens, and both countries, and it demonstrates that diaspora Dempster 2021). Subsequently, the APTC shifted members can be important stakeholders with skills to training and hiring more trainers in the Pacific. and interests that can be valuable for the devel- The share of training staff from the origin country opment of GSPs. increased from 74 percent in 2017 to 81 percent in 2022 (APTC 2018, 2022). Staff nationalization Though cheaper in the origin country, training costs are still likely to be the largest expense, and high fixed costs imply that the cost per graduate will reduce substantially from pilot F I G U R E 3 . 7   Cost per trainee vary by to scale. As discussed in chapter 2, a guiding sector and program design but are principle of GSPs is that training is cheaper in broadly comparable across PALIM, APTC, the origin country. However, training costs can and PAM still be expected to require large investments, 12 especially for sectors with more advanced skill ost per trainee (thousand €) and certification requirements and where origin 10 country training capacity is low. Migration costs 8 will depend on the size of the away track, but 6 those associated with predeparture preparation and travel are generally small, while the costs of 4 supporting migrants upon arrival and programs for 2 return and reintegration may be more expensive (Dempster et al. 2022). In general, GSPs involve 0 PALIM APT PAM bet. Germany substantial fixed costs, especially to develop and (2019) (2022) and Viet Nam improve training and certification, as well as in the (2023) intensive processes of project design and stake- Sources: An et al. 2023; APTC 2022; Rodriguez 2023. holder engagement. Thus, in many cases, the cost Note: Cost per trainee is in nominal terms; figure for Australia Pacific Training Coalition (APTC) is cost per student, which is distinct from cost per graduate; figure for Partnership Approaches for Development-Oriented Vocational Training and Labour Migration (PAM) is an estimate. PALIM = Project   Consultations with representatives from the National 13 Addressing Labour Shortages Through Innovative Labour Agency for Promotion of Employment and Skills Migration. (ANAPEC) in May 2024. 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 111 and investment in local training capacity made passing on the costs is in the interest of migrant over the past years contributed to the cost per workers, limited in scope, and communicated graduate decreasing from $A 18,282 in 2019 to before job acceptance. In principle, GSPs can $A 14,829 in 2022 (APTC 2022). consider mechanisms for trainees to pay tuition and for migrants to contribute to their migration Where foreign language training is neces- costs as long as those mechanisms are fair and sary, it is ideally funded by the destination ethical. For example, income-sharing agree- country government or employers. Under ments can ensure that migrants are not exposed Japan’s economic partnership agreements to excessive risks when they receive loans. In the with Indonesia and the Philippines, for instance, Malengo program, after Ugandans migrate for employers shoulder the costs of Japanese university attendance in Europe, they contribute language training for Indonesian and Filipino a share of their income to future beneficiaries for nurses, respectively. Meanwhile, the government a limited period of time only if their income remains of Viet Nam contributes to the Japanese language above a certain threshold.14 training for its nurses under its agreement with Japan. Costs of language training can also be shared. For example, given the financial cost of German language training ($2,000), the time it 3.6 Monitoring and evaluation takes receive certification (12–18 months), and the reluctance of employers to pay for it due to concerns about attrition and the quality of workers’ M&E is crucial for GSPs to successfully tran- language skills, LaMP developed a financial solu- sition from pilot to scale, to demonstrate tion that shares value and risk among workers, cost-effectiveness to funders, and to provide employers, funding partners, and other actors evidence of long-term impacts. M&E allows (Choudhury 2023). GSPs to improve and adapt to changes and respond to mistakes as they move from pilot to While it is standard for students and trainees scale (figure 3.8). Early M&E can also demonstrate to pay part of the tuition fees, it is often evidence of effectiveness to stakeholders— debated whether migrants should contribute including destination firms and governments that to their own migration costs. It is generally may need to see proof of concept before commit- standard globally for students to pay tuition fees ting additional funding. In the medium term, M&E for training, at least partially. It is also a wide- allows GSPs to adapt to institutional changes and spread practice for migrants to pay for their strive for continuous improvement, while long-term own travel-related expenses, but this is typically evaluation provides evidence on the long-term discouraged by international organizations as it benefits of the program to inform the skills training can lead to exploitative pricing by recruitment and mobility agenda. In this way, M&E serves a agencies and other actors. As part of its principles key function throughout the various stages of and guidelines for the fair recruitment of migrant implementation. workers, the International Labour Organization (ILO) states that “workers shall not be charged directly or indirectly, in whole or in part, any fees or related costs for their recruitment” (ILO 2019, 27). However, the ILO recognizes exceptions when   Malengo website, https://malengo.org. 14 112 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N F I G U R E 3 . 8   M&E serves a key function throughout all stages of implementation Short term l Adapt to early mistakes l Demonstrate proof-of-concept for stakeholders Midterm l Adapt to institutional changes l Make continuous improvements Long term Provide evidence of long-term effectiveness to inform the skills training and mobility agenda Implementing agencies can conduct their own In the early stages of implementation, trainees, M&E, but additional evaluations by external employers, and other actors can be surveyed reviewers will increase credibility. This can be on their experiences; this should include achieved by contracting with a consultant or eval- participants and firms that dropped out of uation agency in the origin or destination country. the program. For trainees, surveys can cover For example, PALIM contracted for an indepen- their experience with selection, training design dent review by the Catholic University of Louvain. and implementation, firm recruitment, and initial THAMM-Enabel implemented a review by the satisfaction with employment (table 3.2). Partici- Migration Policy Institute, a US-based think-tank, pants in the away track can be surveyed on their as part of its goal to support flexible programs that migration experience, including predeparture are adaptable to sector-specific realities. training, the visa process, and initial integration in the destination country. Firms can be surveyed on It is important to collect information on trainers their satisfaction with the training and recruitment and employers before the program begins. process, the initial quality of the candidates, and Baseline information is crucial if evaluators are to their interest in continuing to participate in the GSP. be able to quantify program impacts at any stage. It is essential that surveys also be conducted with For trainees, this includes their demographic trainees and firms that exit the GSP to understand profile, education and credentials, professional their reasons for dropping out. Other stakeholders, experience, language proficiency, migration such as training institutions, labor market inter- experience (and that of their family members), mediators, or any other involved public agencies, and expectations for the program. For firms, this can also be consulted on their experience. This includes their experience with labor shortages, process is essential to document the successes international recruitment, and expectations for of the program and identify necessary improve- the program; as well as additional firm-level data ments. such as number of domestic and international employees, output, and profits. In the long term, sometime after graduates have started working, there can be more 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 113 T A B L E 3 . 2   Outcomes to measure across stages of GSP implementation Stakeholder Baseline Early implementation Follow-up l Demographic profile l Satisfaction with: l Long-term satisfaction l Socioeconomic back- with skill acquisition and – Application process ground employment – Training design and l Labor market status l Labor outcomes, savings, implementation and economic outlook l Education and skills – Recognition of credentials l Household welfare and l Language proficiency – Firm recruitment process Trainees aspirations, including for and migration experi- l Away track: migration migrant families in origin ence experience (predepar- countries ture training, visa process, l Away track: social inte- postarrival integration) gration l For trainees who dropped out: reason for dropping out l Labor shortages l Satisfaction with: l Satisfaction with candi- l International recruitment dates – Training and recruitment experience l Extent to which labor – Candidate quality and l Number of domestic and needs are being met credentials Firms international employees l Changes in production and – Interest in continuing l Output and profits profits participation l Future international l For firms who dropped out: recruitment plans reason for dropping out Training institutions Baseline activities and Changes in capacity and satisfaction with the program and any other capacity stakeholders Note: GSP = Global Skill Partnership. in-depth surveys on the experiences of partic- Tracer studies can be used to track the ipating firms, workers, and their families. After employment outcomes of graduates over training, graduates can be surveyed on their the following years to provide evidence of long-term satisfaction with their employment, skill long-term impacts. Tracer studies follow the acquisition, economic outlook, and the program outcomes of individuals at repeated points in time overall. The away track can be surveyed on their after they exit a program. This can provide a useful social integration in the host country. It is also insight into the employment dynamics of gradu- useful to include the family members of graduates ates. The APTC’s annual Graduate Tracer Survey to measure changes in household welfare—espe- provides insights on the experiences of gradu- cially for the family members of migrants back ates after completing their courses, and has been home who are affected by remittances—changes an essential tool for documenting worker and in household composition, and changes in aspira- employer satisfaction and tracking employment tions and opportunities for future migration. Firms outcomes (APTC 2022). In some cases, the tracer can be surveyed on their satisfaction with candi- survey has helped identify when and where grad- dates, the extent to which labor needs are being uate employment rates have fallen, thus helping met, and changes in production and profits. to ensure that the offered training evolves in line 114 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N with market demands (Curtain and Howes 2021b). more qualified applicants than available spaces, Ideally, tracer studies follow graduates for years this presents an opportunity to randomize partici- to identify whether the skills gained in the program pation in the GSP and create a control group that benefit their career in the long term. does not enter the training program. Comparing the outcomes of the GSP participants, either Maintaining high response rates is essential those on the home or away track, with those for an unbiased sample of graduates. As the of the control group allows for a more rigorous number of graduates grows, it is better to dedi- evaluation of program benefits relative to how a cate resources to tracking a smaller share of similar group of people fared without a GSP. For graduates with high response rates than tracking the home track, this will measure the benefits of a large share of graduates with low response training (which could be compared with studies of rates. Maintaining high response rates can be other training programs in the origin country). For challenging. Initially, the APTC’s annual Graduate the away track, this will measure the benefits of Tracer Surveys achieved response rates below both training and migration combined. 60 percent; this increased to around 80 percent in 2022 with efforts to improve graduate tracking Alternatively, a control group can be (APTC 2022). For longer-term follow-ups, constructed using applicants who do not achieving high response rates is more challenging quite meet the participation requirements. If and expensive, as it becomes increasingly difficult there are large numbers of applicants who are to locate participants. However, maintaining high not quite qualified for the program, and otherwise response rates is essential for a representative have similar characteristics to those who are, they sample, which is necessary for meaningful results. can be used as a control group. In this case, it As the number of participants grows, given limited is important that the applicants who did and did resources for evaluation, it is better to select a not qualify be comparable. If the control group smaller subset of graduates to track with high includes applicants with significantly weaker response rates than to track a large share of grad- qualifications and less experience, it cannot be uates with low response rates. used as a control group. It is important to conduct statistical tests comparing the demographic, Most GSPs and other skilled migration socioeconomic, and labor market characteristics programs have been small in scale, and there of the treatment and control groups to ensure their is no existing gold standard for an impact eval- comparability. uation of these programs. For evaluations with a treatment and a control group to be informa- By comparing the away track with the home tive, they must have a sufficiently large sample track, GSPs could be used to contribute to of participants. As future GSPs expand, they will the literature on the effects of migration on provide a rare opportunity to better understand migrants and their families. An existing liter- the complex effects of training and migration for ature uses migration lotteries or other natural participants and their families. experiments to estimate the effects of migration on the economic and noneconomic outcomes of For more rigorous evidence of short- and their families back home—typically finding large long-term impacts, a control group can be and sustained benefits to the income, consump- constructed through randomization when tion, asset ownership, and savings for migrants programs are oversubscribed. When there are and their families at origin (Gibson et al. 2018). 3 :   D esigning G S P s for scalabilit y and s u ccess 115 GSPs could present an opportunity to expand this a scheme is challenging, but may be possible in evidence for a better understanding of the magni- some settings. tude of these effects across different outcomes and settings. To conclude, M&E must be an integral part of a GSP from the initial design phase; this Randomization of GSP trainees into the away requires dedicated resources and careful plan- track requires a surplus of workers who are ning. Proper evaluation requires careful design eligible for this track and may be difficult to and surveys with many actors at various stages implement in practice. If there are more trainees and low attrition rates. GSPs also vary drastically qualified for the away track than there are spaces, in terms of design characteristics such as the trainees can be randomized into the away track. sectors and skills targeted, intensity and duration If the away track offers more advanced training of training, participant selection, and differences than the home track, randomization most likely between the home and away track. An evaluation needs to occur before tracks split into separate will need to carefully consider the characteris- courses. In this case, the research design would tics of the GSP and the extent to which lessons measure the effect of more advanced training learned are likely to translate to other programs in addition to migration. If not all graduates in and settings. If done properly, M&E will play a the away track receive job offers at destination, crucial role in tracking GSPs’ progress, informing researchers should use an intent-to-treat design. the design of future GSPs, and expanding the Alternatively, if there are trainees who are not quite existing literature on the benefits of training and qualified for the away track, they can be used as migration programs for workers and firms. a control group only if they are sufficiently compa- rable with those who were qualified—for example, if they meet all requirements but receive a slightly lower score in firm interviews. The design of such SPOTLIGHT 4 The role of multilateral development institutions in GSP development Multilateral development banks (MDBs) have Most MDBs have long-standing commitments a critical role to play in the development of to promote labor intermediation, nationally and Global Skill Partnerships (GSPs). The finan- internationally, including instruments and proj- cial infrastructure, multicountry and multisector ects solely dedicated to supporting improved engagement, global policy development, and outcomes for economic migrants. For instance, public and private intermediation of MDBs position the World Bank has managed the Global Knowl- them to contribute effectively to the establish- edge Partnership on Migration and Development ment of more GSPs worldwide. MDBs also play (KNOMAD) for over 10 years to promote good a critical role in convening by bringing parties migration practices. Similarly, the Inter-American to negotiate mutually beneficial agreements, in Development Bank (IDB) has established a specific capacity development of implementing agencies, unit for economic migrants and refugees (Demp- and in disseminating good practices. The educa- ster, Ble, and Villamil 2024). MDBs’ focus on tion, labor market policies, and skill development promoting prosperity and development for their agenda has been a primary focus of MDBs since beneficiary member countries closely aligns with their inception, with the World Bank being the the educational and migration principles of GSPs. largest financier of the sector in the developing MDBs’ support of GSPs should thus be compre- world. hensive, leveraging five distinct advantages: convening power, experience building education MDBs’ foremost commitment is to developing and training capacity, ability to mobilize financing, nations, underscoring the critical role they can knowledge and data generation, and a develop- play in the advancement of GSPs to maximize ment agenda (figure S4.1). benefits for origin countries. As demographic shifts accelerate, economic migration will A crucial advantage of the MDBs is their increase and have wide-reaching implications financial infrastructure, which can be lever- for developing countries. Given MDBs’ develop- aged to create a proof of concept to convince ment objectives, they will play a crucial role in and engage private sector firms. Countries of ensuring that this transition benefits origin coun- destination and origin, while interested in devel- tries and optimizes these countries’ bargaining oping GSPs, often require a proof of concept or power. MDBs’ extensive experience in enhancing some groundwork to be laid for such partnerships capacity within developing nations makes them to foster, along with clearly developed mitigating well equipped to help strengthen labor, skills, and mechanisms for the inherent risks. Before private migration institutions in low- and middle-income sector actors begin shouldering the predomi- countries. Moreover, MDBs’ development agenda nant costs, MDBs can provide interim financing enables a critical focus on social inclusion, sustain- and support the phaseout process. For instance, able impact, gender, and long-term growth. By the World Bank has helped finance the initial leveraging their wealth of knowledge and exper- labor market intermediation capacity of Moroc- tise, convening power, and essential development co’s public employment service, the National objectives, MDBs ultimately can play a pivotal role Agency for Promotion of Employment and Skills in establishing GSPs on equitable and mutually (ANAPEC), as the new bilateral program between beneficial terms. Morocco and Germany was being established 116 S potlight 4 :   T he role of m u ltilateral de v elopment instit u tions in G S P de v elopment 117 F I G U R E S 4 . 1   MDBs’ support for GSPs introduce cross-regional dialogues. An example should be comprehensive, leveraging five is the Accessing Overseas Employment Oppor- distinct advantages tunities for Moroccan Youth Project, where the World Bank helped facilitate dialogues between the governments of Germany and Morocco to Convening design a new bilateral agreement, enabling the power migration of Moroccan youth to Germany. Experience building MDBs like the World Bank also possess valu- education and training able experience and capability in developing capacity training and labor intermediation systems in Ability to low- and middle-income countries and can mobilize leverage these existing operations for GSPs. financing Establishing new training and labor intermedi- Knowledge ation institutions requires significant resources, and data and MDBs invest heavily in helping countries build sharing these systems. The World Bank currently has 81 training and labor intermediation projects in oper- Development agenda ation globally (figure S4.2). These projects include education-to-work transition, soft skills training, occupational standards and certifications, voca- tional guidance, training of vocational trainers, and policy advisories, among others. Most of these operations are domestically focused. Using (see box 2.10). Today, the agency is providing the existing infrastructure, these projects could Moroccans with opportunities in Germany without be expanded to target overseas job placements financial support from the World Bank. and to benefit from foreign partnerships. This would enable aspiring migrants to be accredited Beyond financing, one of the main strengths according to destination country requirements, of MDBs is their convening power and role as and could be used to strengthen the quality of interlocutors, enabling them to bring together training systems for nonmigrants at home. For a diverse range of stakeholders to facili- example, the Skills and Employment for Tongans tate joint and coordinated action. For GSPs project finances vocational education and training to be successfully piloted and scaled, the inclu- with the goal that some graduates develop the sion of several stakeholders is essential—notably skills needed to migrate and work abroad. government agencies, private firms, industry asso- ciations, education and training providers, and There is substantial overlap between countries development agencies. The multilateral mandate with existing World Bank training and labor and expansive global network of MDBs can be intermediation operations and large outmi- harnessed to convene these different bodies. While gration. For example, India has both the largest regional development banks should leverage their number of training and employment projects as localized dialogues and partnerships, the World well as the largest financing portfolio for training/ Bank can integrate diverse regional efforts and employment operations for the World Bank. It 118 S potlight 4 :   T he role of m u ltilateral de v elopment instit u tions in G S P de v elopment F I G U R E S 4 . 2   The World Bank has dozens of active training and labor intermediation operations globally 1 2 3 7 IBRD 48587 | JANUARY 2025 Source: World Bank Education Portfolio Database. Note: Calculation is based on number of active World Bank–funded training/employment-related projects as of 2023. also has the highest outmigration in absolute and an approximately 5 percent emigration rate, numbers. Bangladesh has the second-largest most of which is accounted for by temporary labor training financing portfolio for the World Bank migrants (table S4.1). T A B L E S 4 . 1   Ranking of countries by number of active training/employment projects Number of training Number of Emigration rate as and employment Total portfolio emigrants % of population Rank Country projects (million $) (2020) (2020) 1 India 7 2,511.0 17,869,492 1.3 2 Bangladesh 3 652.1 7,401,763 4.5 3 Tanzania 3 125.0 327,863 0.5 4 Angola 2 302.7 668,066 2.0 5 Colombia 2 302.7 3,024,273 5.9 6 Congo, Dem. Rep. 2 170.0 1,832,069 2.0 7 Côte d’Ivoire 2 140.0 1,149,298 4.4 8 Guyana 2 121.5 438,413 55.7 9 Malawi 2 50.0 311,052 1.6 Sources: World Bank Education Portfolio Database (2023); UN DESA Migration Data. S potlight 4 :   T he role of m u ltilateral de v elopment instit u tions in G S P de v elopment 119 Finally, MDBs can contribute their knowl- several MDBs are partnering with outside orga- edge generation and data capabilities to nizations to improve joint research efforts. For identify appropriate sectors and contexts instance, the World Bank and the United Nations and to analyze the full range of possibilities High Commissioner for Refugees together support for each GSP. MDBs are well positioned to help the Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement.1 collect, analyze, and forecast data on skill short- Similarly, the Inter-American Development Bank ages faced by countries of destination and origin, and the International Organization for Migration highlighting areas where targeted worker training have jointly developed online courses to equip can help close the skill gap through international public officials with current knowledge of migra- labor intermediation and partnerships. The World tion governance issues. Bank’s 2023 World Development Report on migra- tion exemplifies the rigorous migration research currently undertaken by MDBs (World Bank 2023). Through efforts to share and develop more migra-   Joint Data Center, “Our Ambition and Identity” web 1 tion knowledge across organizations and regions, page, https://www.jointdatacenter.org/who-we-are/. 4 Conclusion 122 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N M any low- and middle-income coun- the loss of human capital in origin countries tries boast large and increasing while ensuring skill alignment in destination populations of working-age individ- countries. This model has considerable potential uals and youths who lack access to employment to enable safe, orderly, and productive migration opportunities and training in high-demand from developing nations into more developed sectors. The unemployment rate for middle- and ones, while at the same time expanding the pool higher-education graduates—a group that is of skilled workers who remain at home. Under this more likely to be employed than unemployed in arrangement, the destination country provides most other countries—is high in many low- and expertise, technology, and finance for training middle-income countries, highlighting that the individuals in the origin country in skills that are in economy is not creating sufficient good jobs or demand in both economies. Trainees can opt for that the skills produced are not a good match to a "home" track, whereby they contribute to the the economic structure and demands. human capital in their origin country; or an "away" track, which allows for legal migration to work in Simultaneously, many high- and upper-mid- the destination country. Both origin and destina- dle-income countries are grappling with tion countries stand to gain from a workforce with aging populations and labor shortages in valuable skills that aid in business expansion and crucial economic sectors, including elderly create positive economic impacts, including new care, transportation, and construction. The job opportunities. By situating training in the origin diminishing workforce further complicates these country, the model also aims to prevent brain drain countries’ public pension systems, which are now and significantly lowers the cost of training. supporting a growing number of retirees with longer life expectancies. The report has discussed lessons from existing GSP interventions across the world. These have This report has shown that the creation of been fostered by destination governments (e.g., additional regular migration channels could Australia, Belgium, Germany) or by employers be advantageous for both origin and desti- seeking an expanded and qualified pool of nation countries. High unemployment rates and workers in sectors such as medicine, sports, low wages in low- and middle-income countries maritime, construction, or information and commu- mean that their workers stand to gain significantly nication technology. The report provides a guide from opportunities in more prosperous economies to relevant stakeholders in countries intending to that will suffer from acute labor shortages given participate in GSPs, including on critical aspects their demographic trajectories. This migration can for training in relevant sectors, private sector help alleviate unemployment and bolster family participation, legal mobility pathways, financing, incomes through remittances. Migrant workers and monitoring and evaluation. could acquire new skills, establish professional and social networks, and save money—all of One of the key lessons is that GSPs must which can yield substantial economic benefits effectively collaborate across a variety of upon their return, both as workers and entrepre- institutions and be integrated within the neurs. existing legal and regulatory frameworks to be successful and sustainable. These partnerships Global Skill Partnerships (GSPs) present a require collaboration among a variety of institu- cooperative migration model that addresses tions in both the origin and destination countries, 4 :   C oncl u sion 123 including public employment services, migration F I G U R E 4 . 1   There are four core agencies, training providers, and the private sector. principles of successful Global Skill The active participation of the private sector is Partnerships crucial to ensure the schemes are effective and responsive to market demands. Both private and public entities can serve as intermediaries in the  labor market and as training providers, which has implications for the necessary regulations and Partnerships oversight. For sectors that necessitate licensing, Human such as health care, it is essential to integrate capital certification processes; these can be supported by mutual recognition standards for skill qualifica-   tions. Although the destination country typically funds training in the origin country, various mech- anisms could be explored to distribute costs and Social Labor market achieve financial sustainability. Some expenses protection intermediation could be transferred from the public to the private sector, contingent on employers’ readiness to invest. The international development community can also play a role in providing technical advice, convening, and financing, given its track record in exchange of information regarding both labor financing the development of sound training and supply and demand needs. Building these labor intermediation systems in, for instance, tech- systems involves supporting standardized inter- nical and vocational education and training. ventions that are replicable and scalable. In summary, GSPs can be successful as long as 3. Migrants should have access to appro- they help countries deliver on their promise of priate social protection systems. Besides expanding a more qualified global labor force by being workers, people who migrate are indi- focusing on four core principles: human capital, viduals whose rights must be respected. Doing labor market intermediation, social protection, and so includes ensuring access to labor and social partnerships (figure 4.1). protection benefits and their portability across countries. 1. Investing in human capital is paramount. 4. Constructive global dialogue and partner- Through their focus on skill development systems, ships are crucial. International cooperation education, and training, GSPs empower individ- and collaboration are essential components of uals to be competitive in the global job market. a successful migration management strategy. 2. Managed and systematic international labor Countries must come together to share expe- market intermediation systems are needed riences, knowledge, and best practices, in turn to facilitate cross-border economic gains. promoting policy coherence and harmonization These systems can allow the provision of digni- at the global level. fied jobs to millions of people—including youth and women—at home and abroad, through an Appendix: Calculation of 2050 worker needs projections Overview. The purpose of this analysis is to by many studies and current trends, would imply project population dynamics across the world that economies will face labor shortages and with the goal of identifying trends related to unsustainable public finance regimes. old-age dependency. For the first time in human history, populations of entire countries and regions The analysis assumes that age dynamics will will start to shrink—not due to wars, famines, evolve in each country as projected by the United epidemics, and forced deportations, but because Nations (UN) World Population Prospects. For of declining fertility rates. Accompanying this this simple scenario, we assume that secondary process is aging, whereby the share of the elderly education enrollment increases at a rate of population will drastically increase. The resulting 5 percentage points per decade with a cap at population patterns will have critical implications 100 percent, and tertiary enrollment increases at for labor market outcomes and the sustainability of a rate of 2.5 percentage points per decade with a social welfare programs, tax systems, and overall cap at 80 percent. These estimates are relatively economic stability. conservative and below the rates observed over the previous decades. We also assume that labor The analysis specifically focuses on a comparison force participation (LFP) rates remain fixed at their between countries at different income levels since current values. We should note the current enroll- they are quite different in terms of (1) their current ment rates and education levels of the younger demographic/age distribution profiles; (2) the generations are higher than those of the older expected evolution of their fertility and mortality generations. Hence, as the older cohorts exit the rates, which affects future demographic profiles; labor force and younger people enter, the overall (3) their current human capital and education human capital in each country will increase due levels; and (4) their school enrollment levels, which to this compositional effect. Any further increase in affect future human capital levels. enrollment rates in tertiary and secondary educa- tion, especially in low- and lower-middle-income The primary variables we are interested in are the countries, will further improve human capital levels. primary-, secondary-, and tertiary-educated labor These changes can easily be incorporated into force over the next three decades as a share of the framework analyzed here. the elderly population (those age 65 and above). These are basically an inverse of the traditional Data and dataset construction. The data in the old-age dependency ratios used in the demog- analysis are based on five age groups (25–34, raphy literature, adjusted for human capital and 35–44, 45–54, 55–64, and 65 and above), and the skills. A rapid decline in these ratios, as projected analysis is carried out for each decade separately 125 126 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N until 2050. Population projections by gender and Mismatch Indicators database.3 LFP by group is age group come from the medium variant scenario averaged across all years where this information of the UN Population Division’s 2022 World Popu- is available between 2011 and 2019 and assumed lation Prospects (UN DESA 2022a). to be fixed over time.4 Education attainment rates for each educa- Methodology. The projected labor force in the tion group (any primary, any secondary,1 and year 2050, for example, for each education any tertiary) are measured by gender and age group, LFe2050, is the sum of the projected labor group in the Barro-Lee dataset in the starting force by gender (G = {Male, Female}) and age period of 2010 (Barro and Lee 2013). These rates group (A = {25–34, 35–44, 45–54, 55–64, 65 and are carried forward for each 10-year age group above}): into subsequent decades. For example, educa- tion attainment among age group 25–34 in 2010 becomes the attainment for age group 35–44 in 2020, age group 45–54 in 2030, etc. Thus, this , analysis assumes that no one returns to school where LFPg,a,e is the current LFP ratio and POP 2050 after age 25 and that migration and mortality is the projected population in 2050 in the gender, trends are not education-biased. For those who age group, and education group. are under the age of 25 in 2010, current enroll- ment ratios by gender (the average among all The projected additional labor force needed years where this information is available between to maintain a ratio of 1.25 secondary- or 2011 and 2019) are converted into future attain- ment rates and are assumed to increase at the rates of 5 percentage points per decade for 3   ILO Education and Mismatch Indicators Database, secondary and 2.5 percentage points per decade https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/ (accessed July 5, 2024). for tertiary as described above. Primary and 4   Treatment of missing data: Among countries observed secondary enrollment ratios come from the World in the UN Population Division projections, various small Development Indicators DataBank, while tertiary countries are excluded from this analysis because of enrollment ratios are calculated using data from missing education or LFP data. To avoid dropping larger the UNESCO Institute for Statistics database as countries from the analysis, information was sometimes taken from the nearest neighboring country with avail- the number enrolled in bachelor’s-equivalent and able data. This is the case for 17 countries for education short-cycle tertiary degrees divided by the popu- attainment and 29 countries for education enrollment. lation ages 18–22.2 For 19 larger countries missing LFP data, information came from the ILO Modeled Estimates database (https:// ilostat.ilo.org/data/, accessed July 5, 2024) without the Finally, LFP rates by gender, age group, and education division; and education-specific LFP rates education group come from the Interna- were adjusted to match the percentage point dispersion tional Labour Organization (ILO) Education and between education groups within the gender-age group in countries in the same region and income classification with available data (keeping the population-weighted mean fixed). Finally, among countries available in 1   Secondary attainment includes those with vocational the ILO Education and Mismatch Indicators data- track secondary or postsecondary nontertiary degrees. base, 6 percent of country-gender-age-education 2   World Development Indicators DataBank, https:// cells were missing LFP data. These were imputed databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development- using country-by-gender-by-age and income indicators; UIS.Stat, https://data.uis.unesco.org/. level-by-gender-by-age-by-education fixed effects. A ppendix : C alc u lation of 2 0 5 0 w orker needs pro j ections 127 tertiary-educated person per elderly person (age surplus, because the target rate of 1.25 may be 65 and above), We2050, is calculated as considered a lower bound. Analysis of counterfactual labor force , increases. This exercise is intended to reveal how which can be interpreted as the total labor force We2050 would change under policies to increase needed to have 1.25 per person age 65 and LFP among different segments of the population. above minus the total projected labor force in the education group in 2050. First, it is assumed that a government can imple- ment policies to increase female LFP so as to Interpretation. The ratio of 1.25 was chosen closes half the gap between its current value and because it is approximately the average number 80 percent. In the analysis, this counterfactual is of secondary- and tertiary-educated labor force implemented by increasing the female LFP rate participants per elderly person observed today within each age-education group, LFPFemale,a,e , in the high-income countries. This represents a using: reasonable lower bound below which a country would begin to be concerned about labor force shortages and public finance constraints. These . ratios correspond to a total labor force of 2.5 (with at least a secondary education) per elderly This represents a large increase for countries such person age 65 and above. (We should note that as Italy, where the working-age female LFP rate given the current school enrollment and labor is under 60 percent, and the Republic of Korea, market trends, high- and upper-middle-income where it is 62 percent. countries will have a minimal number of workers with only primary education in 2050.) However, Similarly, a second policy increases the LFP of this number should not necessarily be interpreted people age 65 and above to close half the gap as a labor force shortage, since the true bench- between the current rate and 20 percent. This mark for a shortage will vary across countries and policy is implemented by increasing the LFP rate depends on how the needed number of workers within each gender-education group for people is defined—for example, to support the pension age 65 and above, LFPg,65+,e , using: system, maintain a sufficient output per person in the economy, or have enough workers for the elderly care sector. This exercise should be used . to compare magnitudes across countries using a common benchmark, and not to make strong This corresponds to a large increase for countries claims regarding worker needs in each country. such as France, Italy, and Spain, where the LFP rate among those age 65 and above is between When We2050 is negative, it represents the addi- 3 and 5 percent; Germany where it is closer to tional labor force available over and above the 8 percent; and Australia, Canada, and the United number needed to maintain the ratio of 1.25 per Kingdom, where it is between 11 and 15 percent. elderly person in each education group. This However, it creates no change for countries such should not necessarily be interpreted as a worker as Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand, where this rate is already greater than 20 percent. 128 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N Finally, we consider the effect of increasing the assumption that pre-2020 net migration rates number of migrant workers at a level equivalent to continue through the end of the century, with 10 percent of the working-age population: additional assumptions about return migration in the case of large recent migrant or refugee flows (UN DESA 2022b). Therefore, this counterfactual , should be interpreted as an increase in migra- and adding these workers into the total labor tion over and above a continuation of status quo force. It should be noted that the UN’s 2022 World migration. Population Prospects already include estimates of projected net migration, based on a general References ABET (Accreditation Board for Engineering and APTC (Australia Pacific Training Coalition). 2020. Technology). 2024. “Mutual Recognition Agree- Australia Pacific Training Coalition Annual Report ments.” https://www.abet.org/global-presence/ 2018–2019. Suva, Fiji: APTC. https://stage2old. mutual-recognition-agreements/. aptc.edu.au/docs/default-source/reports/ annual-reports/aptc_annual_report_2018-2019. Adhikari, S., M. Clemens, H. Dempster, and N. Ekeator. pdf?sfvrsn=5c0c3f7b_2. 2021. Expanding Legal Migration Pathways from Nigeria to Europe: From Brain Drain to Brain Gain. APTC (Australia Pacific Training Coalition). 2021. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://documents. “Australia Pacific Training Coalition Stage 3 worldbank.org/curated/en/873041626087072895/ (APTC3) Strategic Review: Executive Summary.” Expanding-Legal-Migration-Pathways-from-Ni https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/apct- geria-to-Europe-From-Brain-Drain-to-Brain-Gain. 3-strategic-review-executive-summary.pdf. An, N., K. Marchand, A. Meyn, and M. Sauer. 2023. APTC (Australia Pacific Training Coalition). 2022. APTC “Transnational Skill Partnership between Germany Annual Progress and Performance Report. Suva, and Vietnam: Stakeholder Perceptions on Costs, Fiji: APTC. Benefits, the Role of Skills Development, Partner- ship and Sustainability.” Quarterly on Refugee APTC (Australia Pacific Training Coalition). 2024. APTC Problems 62 (4): 375–97. https://doi.org/10.57947/ Factsheets. APTC. qrp.v62i4.82. Arias, O., D. Evans, and I. Santos. 2019. The Skills Ang, A., and E.R. Tiongson. 2023. “Philippine Migration Balancing Act in Sub-Saharan Africa: Investing in Journey: Processes and Programs in the Migration Skills for Productivity, Inclusivity, and Adaptability. Life Cycle.” Background paper prepared for World Washington, DC: World Bank. Development Report. World Bank, Washington, DC. ASCI (African Sports and Creative Institute). 2023. Ansu, Y., and J. Tan. 2008. “Skills Development for “Africa Sports Industry: Strength in Numbers Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.” World (Part 1).” https://africansci.com/wp-content/ Bank, Washington, DC. https://policydialogue.org/ uploads/2023/11/ASCI-MInibook-Final-Version-1. files/events/background-materials/AnsuTan_skills_ pdf. dev_for_economic_growth.pdf. Australian Bureau of Statistics. 2024. “Job Vacan- Anyangwe, S., and C. Mtonga. 2007. “Inequities in the cies, Australia, May 2024.” https://www.abs.gov. Global Health Workforce: The Greatest Impedi- au/statistics/labour/jobs/job-vacancies-australia/ ment to Health in Sub-Saharan Africa.” International latest-release#job-vacancies-over-time. Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 4 (2): 93–100. Australian Department of Home Affairs. 2024. “Migra- tion Program Planning Levels.” https://immi. APTC (Australia Pacific Training Coalition). 2018. APTC homeaffairs.gov.au/what-we-do/migration-progra Annual Report and Plan 2017–2018. Suva, Fiji: m-planning-levels. APTC. Autor, D. 2015. “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? APTC (Australia Pacific Training Coalition). 2019. APTC The History and Future of Workplace Automation.” Annual Report 2019. Suva, Fiji: APTC. Journal of Economic Perspectives 29 (3): 3–30. 129 130 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N Autor, D., F. Levy, and R. Murnane. 2003. “The Skill Cabus, S., J. Napierala, and S. Carretero. 2021. “The Content of Recent Technological Change: An Returns to Non-Cognitive Skills: A Meta-Analysis.” Empirical Exploration.” The Quarterly Journal of JRC Working Papers Series on Labour, Education Economics 118 (4): 1279–333. and Technology 2021/06, European Commission, Seville. Avato, J., J. Koettl, and R. Sabates-Wheeler. 2010. “Social Security Regimes, Global Estimates, and Caravatti, M., S. McLeod Lederer, A. Lupico, and N. Good Practices: The Status of Social Protection for Van Meter. 2014. Getting Teacher Migration and International Migrants.” World Development 38 (4): Mobility Right. Brussels: Education International. 455–66. https://download.ei-ie.org/Docs/WebDepot/ TeacherMigrationStudy.pdf. Awases, M., R. Akpa R., J. Nyoni, and R. Chatora. 2004. “Migration of Health Professionals in Six Countries: Cárdenas, A.V. 2019. “Reconocimiento de Estudios A Synthesis Report.” World Health Organization de Educación Superior en los Tratados Inter- Regional Office, Johannesburg. nacionales vigentes en Chile” [Recognition of Higher Education Studies in International Trea- Aydede, Y., and B. Orbay. 2016. “Comparison of ties in Force in Chile]. https://obtienearchivo.bcn. Economic Benefits of University and Vocational cl/obtienearchivo?id=repositorio/10221/27208/1/ High School Education among Different Majors in Tratados_internacionales_de_reconocimiento_ Turkey.” European Journal of Higher Education 6 mutuo_de_estudios_superiores.pdf. (2): 176–92. https://doi.org/10.1080/21568235.201 5.1075893. CARICOM (Caribbean Community). 2001. Revised Treaty of Chaguaramas Establishing the Carib- Barro, R., and J. Lee. 2013. “A New Data Set of bean Community Including the Caricom Single Educational Attainment in the World, 1950– Market & Economy. Signed by Heads of Govern- 2010.” Journal of Development Economics 104 ment of the Caribbean Community on July 5, 2001, (September):184–98. at their Twenty-Second Meeting of the Conference in Nassau, The Bahamas, Georgetown, Guyana, Bay, J. 2023. “In 3 Midwest Cities, Immigrants and July 7, 2001. https://treaty.caricom.org/. Refugees Are Solving Teacher Shortages.” The 74, October 3. https://www.the74million.org/ Cedefop (European Centre for the Development of article/in-3-midwest-cities-immigrants-and-r Vocational Training). 2019. “Overview of National efugees-are-solving-teacher-shortages/. Qualifications Framework Developments in Europe 2019.” Cedefop, Thessaloniki, Greece. https://www. BBC News. 2023. “Over 10,000 Ghana Teachers Join cedefop.europa.eu/files/8609_en.pdf. Jakpa Train to UK in 2023 Alone, More Go Still Go.” BBC News, October 9. https://www.bbc.com/ Cedefop, ETF, and UNESCO (European Centre for the pidgin/articles/c51j96qnr92o. Development of Vocational Training; European Training Foundation; and United Nations Educa- Beqiri, P. 2024. “Heimerer College: A Story of Vision, tional, Scientific, and Cultural Organization). 2017. Innovation and Resilience.” Presented at the Work- Global Inventory of Regional and National Qualifi- shop on Global Skills Partnerships in the Western cations Frameworks 2017: Volume II: National and Balkans, Pristina. Regional Cases. Thessaloniki, Greece: Cedefop. Borjas, G., and H. Cassidy. 2019. “The wage penalty to Cepla, Z. 2021. “Skills Mix: Foreign-Born Workers Bring undocumented immigration.” Labour Economics, More than University Degrees to High-Income 61, 101757. Countries.” Policy note. Labor Mobility Part- nerships, Washington, DC. https://lampforum. Boucher, L. 2016. “What Are the Different Types of Popu- o r g / 2 0 2 1 / 0 4 / 2 8 / s k i l l s - m i x- f o r e i g n - b o r lation Pyramids?” Population Education blog post, n-workers-bring-more-than-university-degrees March 10. https://populationeducation.org/what-ar -to-high-income-countries/. e-different-types-population-pyramids/. Cernat, L. 2022. “How Important Are Mutual Recog- Business Advisory Group on Migration. 2024. “Engaging nition Agreements for Trade Facilitation?” ECIPE with Employers in Skills Mobility Partnerships.” Policy Brief 10/2022, European Centre for Interna- https://www.gfmd.org/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1801/ tional Political Economy, Brussels. https://ecipe.org/ files/documents/france2023/Engaging%20 publications/mutual-recognition-agreements-and- with%20Employers%20in%20Skills%20Mobility%20 trade-facilitation/. Partnerships_WEB.pdf. R eferences 131 CGD (Center for Global Development). 2021a. “Global Clemens, M., and H. Dempster. 2021. “Ethical Skills Partnership Nursing in the Philippines.” Recruitment of Health Workers: Using Bilateral https://gsp.cgdev.org/legalpathway/global-skill Cooperation to Fulfill the World Health Orga- s-partnership-nursing-in-the-philippines/. nization’ Global Code of Practice.” CGD Policy Paper 212. Center for Global Development, CGD (Center for Global Development). 2021b. “Training Washington, DC. https://www.cgdev.org/sites/ Nurses from Vietnam to Become Geriatric Nurses default/files/PP212-Clemens-Dempster-Ethica in Germany.” https://gsp.cgdev.org/legalpathway/ l-recruitment-health-workers-WHO-Code.pdf. training-nurses-from-vietnam-to-become-ge riatric-nurses-in-germany/. Clemens, M., H. Dempster, and K. Gough. 2019. “Maxi- mizing the Shared Benefits of Legal Migration CGD (Center for Global Development). 2021c. “Youth, Pathways: Lessons from Germany’s Skills Partner- Employment and Skills in Kosovo (YES).” Global ships.” CGD Policy Paper 150. Center for Global Skill Partnerships, CGD. https://gsp.cgdev. Development, Washington, DC. https://www. org/2021/07/07/youth-employment-and-skill cgdev.org/sites/default/files/maximizing-share s-in-kosovo-yes/. d-benefits-legal-migration-pathways.pdf. CGD (Center for Global Development). 2021d. “We Clemens, M., and G. Pettersson. 2008. “New Data Analyzed 57 Legal Migration Pathways. Here’s on African Health Professionals Abroad.” Human What We Found.” Blog post, July 16. https://www. Resources for Health 6 (January): 1. cgdev.org/blog/we-analyzed-57-legal-migratio n-pathways-heres-what-we-found. Clemens, M., C. Graham, and S. Howes. 2014. “Skill Devel- opment and Regional Mobility: Lessons from the Chand, S., M. Clemens, and H. Dempster. 2021. “A Australia-Pacific Technical College.” CGD Working Pacific Skills Visa: Improving Opportunities for Paper 370. Center for Global Development, Wash- Skilled Migration throughout the Pacific Region.” ington, DC. https://www.cgdev.org/publication/ IZA Policy Paper No. 183. IZA Institute of Labor skill-development-and-regional-mobility-lesso Economics, Bonn. https://docs.iza.org/pp183.pdf. ns-australia-pacific-technical-college. Chaudhury, N., J. Hammer, M. Kremer, K. Muralidharan, Comyn, P., and O. Strietska-Ilina, eds. 2019. Skills and and F. Rogers. 2006. “Missing in Action: Teacher Jobs Mismatches in Low-and Middle-Income and Health Worker Absence in Developing Coun- Countries. Geneva: International Labour Organi- tries.” Journal of Economic Perspectives 20 (1): zation. 91–116. Correia de Brito, A., C. Kauffmann, and J. Pelkmans. Chime, V. 2021. “Buhari: How Brain Drain Affects 2016. “The Contribution of Mutual Recognition to Provision of Quality Healthcare in Africa.” The International Regulatory Co-operation.” OECD Cable December 7. https://www.thecable.ng/ Regulatory Policy Working Paper 2, Organisation for buhari-how-brain-drain-affects-provision-o Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. f-quality-healthcare-in-africa. Curtain, R., and S. Howes. 2021a. “Helping APTC Cho, Y., A. Denisova, S. Yi, and U. Khadka. 2018. “Bilat- Trades Graduates to Migrate to Australia: Why, eral Arrangement of Temporary Labor Migration: How and When.” Devpolicy blogpost, February Lessons from Korea’s Employment Permit System.” 18. Development Policy Centre. https://devpolicy. Policy brief. World Bank, Washington, DC. org/helping-aptc-trades-graduates-to-migrat e-to-australia-why-how-and-when-20210218-2/. Choudhury, P. 2023. “Language without Borders: Designing a Financial Solution to Scale Language Curtain, R., and S. Howes. 2021b. “Worsening Employ- Training for Migrant Workers.” https://lampforum. ment Outcomes for Pacific Technical Graduate org/2023/09/14/language-without-borders-desig Job-Seekers.” Development Policy Centre Discus- ning-a-financial-solution-to-scale-language-trai sion Paper 91. Crawford School of Public Policy, ning-for-migrant-workers/. Australian National University, Canberra. https:// papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_ Clemens, M. 2015. “Global Skill Partnerships: A proposal id=3785672. for technical training in a mobile world.” IZA Journal of Labor Policy 4 (1): 1–18. De Lange, T., and M. Falkenhain. 2024. “Precarity Prevented or Reinforced? Migrants’ Right to Change Employers in the Recast of the EU Single Permit Directive.” Frontiers in Sociology 8: 1267235. 132 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N De Villiers, R., and Z. Weda. 2017. “Zimbabwean FSMB (Federation of State Medical Boards). 2023. Teachers in South Africa: A Transient Greener “Physician Licensure in 2023.” https://www.fsmb. Pasture.” South African Journal of Education 37 org/u.s.-medical-regulatory-trends-and-actions/ (3): 1–9. u.s.-medical-licensing-and-disciplinary-data/ physician-licensure/. Dempster, H., M. Ble, and S. Villamil. 2024. “Why and How Multilateral Development Banks Support Funk, G. 2023. “An Old Twist to a New Problem: Improved Outcomes for Economic Migrants and Addressing the Teacher Shortage.” Rural Refugees.” CGD Policy Paper 328. Center for Schools Collaborative, January 3. https:// Global Development, Washington, DC. ruralschoolscollaborative.org/stories/an-old-twist-o n-a-new-problem-addressing-the-teacher- Dempster, H., I. Iniesta, R. Resstack, and C. Zimmer. shortage. 2022. “Financing Legal Labor Migration Pathways: From Pilot to Scale.” CGD Policy Paper 261. Center Geronimo, K., D. Zambonino, and M. Saucedo Huerta. for Global Development, Washington, DC. 2023. Catalyzing Labor Mobility Solutions for Ibero-America: A Regional Assessment of Oppor- DFAT (Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade). tunities for Innovative Demonstration Projects. 2021. “Australia Pacific Training Coalition Stage 3 Washington, DC: Labor Mobility Partnerships (APTC3) Strategic Review: Executive Summary.” (LaMP). https://www.dfat.gov.au/sites/default/files/apct- 3-strategic-review-executive-summary.pdf. GhanaWeb. 2024. “Over 16,000 Ghanaian Teachers Apply to UK Department of Education.” Digital Explorers. 2022. “Final Report: Making Sense of GhanaWeb, January 4. https://www.ghanaweb. the Journey of Digital Explorers.” Enterprise Lithu- com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/Over-1 ania. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bMpA9jbYv6 6-000-Ghanaian-teachers-apply-to-UK-Dep SY9RrRuFM3LJSh6aCRQPj7/view. artment-of-Education-1907492. Dryden-Peterson, S. 2011. Refugee Education: A Global Gibson, J., D. McKenzie, H. Rohorua, and S. Stillman. Review. Geneva: United Nations High Commis- 2018. “The Long-Term Impacts of International sioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Migration: Evidence from a Lottery.” World Bank Economic Review 32 (1): 127–47. Education Basket. 2024. “Teacher Recruitment and Attraction in the GCC.” Article, June 28. https:// GIZ (German Agency for International Cooperation). www.linkedin.com/pulse/teacher-recruitmen 2020. “Cooperative Training Programme: Metal t-attraction-gcc-education-basket-koztf/. Cutting Technician.” https://www.tvet-vietnam. org/archives/publication_standard/metal-cutting. ESCAP (Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific). 2024. Asia-Pacific Migration Report. GIZ (German Agency for International Cooper- Bangkok: United Nations. https://www.unescap.org/ ation). 2021. “Partnership Approaches for kp/2024/asia-pacific-migration-report-2024-asse Development-Oriented Vocational Training and ssing-implementation-global-compact-migration. Labour Migration (PAM).” Programme Migration & Diaspora webinar, July 29. European Commission. 2021. Teachers in Europe: Careers, Development and Well-Being. Eury- GIZ (German Agency for International Cooperation). dice Report. Luxembourg: Publications Office 2024a. “THAMM plus.” Fact sheet. https://www.giz. of the European Union. https://data.europa.eu/ de/de/downloads/giz2024-en-THAMM-plus.pdf. doi/10.2797/997402. GIZ (German Agency for International Cooperation). Eurostat. 2024. “EU Blue Cards by Type of Decision, 2024b. “Triple Win Programme—Recruiting Nurses Occupation and Citizenship.” https://ec.europa.eu/ from Abroad Sustainably.” https://www.giz.de/en/ eurostat/databrowser/view/migr_resbc1/default/ worldwide/41533.html. table?lang=en. Government of Australia. 2024. “Skills Priority List.” Jobs Ferguson, S. 2024. “Understanding America’s and Skills Australia. https://www.jobsandskills.gov. Labor Shortage.” US Chamber of Commerce. au/data/skills-shortages-analysis/skills-priority-list. h t t p s : / / w w w. u s c h a m b e r. c o m / w o r k f o r c e / understanding-americas-labor-shortage. Government of Canada. 2023. “Canadian Occu- pational Projection System (COPS): Summary Flamand, C. 2021. Socio-Economic Analysis of PALIM. of Results (2022–2031).” https://occupations. Louvain: Catholic University of Louvain. esdc.gc.ca/sppc-cops/l.3bd.2t.1ilshtml@-eng. jsp?lid=107&fid=64&lang=en. R eferences 133 Government of Ghana. 2020. "Collective Agreement Hutchinson, E., S. Kiwanuka, R. Muhindo, C. Nimwesiga, for Teaching Staff within the Ghana Education D. Balabanova, M. McKee, and F. Kitutu. 2024. “The Service (GES)." https://www.ghanateachers.com/ Paradoxical Surplus of Health Workers in Africa: news-media/downloads/category/4-general-files The Need for Research and Policy Engagement.” ?download=12:collective-agreement-for-teaching The International Journal of Health Planning and -staff-in-the-g-e-s Management 39 (3): 956–62. Government of India. 2023. “Presidency’s IEA (International Engineering Alliance). 2024. “Wash- Compendium of Best Practices on MRAs for ington Accord.” https://www.ieagreements.org/ Professional Services.” https://commerce.gov.in/ accords/washington/signatories/. wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Compendium-o f-Best-Practices-on-MRAs-for-Professional- ILO (International Labour Organization). 2019. “General Services-Indias-G20-Presidency.pdf. Principles and Operational Guidelines for Fair Recruitment and Definition of Recruitment Fees and Hajir. 2023. “‘Anapec’ in Partnership with ‘ZAV’ Related Costs.” ILO, Geneva. https://www.ilo.org/ Announces Paid Vocational Training in Germany.” publications/general-principles-and-operational Job offer, November 1. https://hajir.ma/anapec-i -guidelines-fair-recruitment-and-0. n-partnership-with-zav-announces-paid-voca tional-training-in-germany. ILO (International Labour Organization). 2022. “Securing Social Protection for Migrant Workers and Their Hampf, F., and L. Woessmann. 2017. “Vocational vs. Families: Challenges and Options for Building a general education and employment over the life Better Future.” ILO, Geneva. https://www.ilo.org/ cycle: New evidence from PIAAC.” CESifo Economic resource/record-decisions/gb/344/securing-socia Studies, 63 (3), 255–69. l-protection-migrant-workers-and-their-families- challenges. Hanson, G., and C. McIntosh. 2010. “The Great Mexican Emigration.” The Review of Economics and Statis- ILO and IOM (International Labour Organization Inter- tics 92 (4): 798–810. national Organization for Migration). 2022. “Climate Change and Labour Mobility in Pacific Island Coun- Hanushek, E., G. Schwerdt, S. Wiederhold, and L. tries.” Policy brief. https://environmentalmigration. Woessmann. 2015. “Returns to skills around the iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl1411/files/documents/ world: Evidence from PIAAC.” European Economic wcms_856083.pdf. Review 73: 103–30. IOM (International Organization for Migration). 2024. Harnoss, J., T. Mondal, and J. Kugel. 2023. “Will a Green Skills Mobility Partnerships: Recommendations Skills Gap of 7 million Workers Put Climate Goals and Guidance for Policymakers and Practitioners. at Risk?” BCG, September 14. https://www.bcg. Geneva: IOM. https://publications.iom.int/books/ com/publications/2023/will-a-green-skills-gap-pu skills-mobility-partnerships-recommendation t-climate-goals-at-risk. s-and-guidance-policymakers-and-practitioners. Hooper, K. 2021. “How Can Europe Deliver on the IOM (International Organization for Migration). n.d. Potential of Talent Partnerships?” MPI Policy “Skills Mobility Partnerships (SMPs).” https://eea. Brief. Migration Policy Institute Europe, Brussels. iom.int/sites/g/files/tmzbdl666/files/documents/ https://www.migrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/ Skills-Mobility-Partnerships-Infosheet.pdf. publications/mpie-talent-partnerships_final.pdf. IRENA (International Renewable Energy Agency). 2023. Hooper, K., and R. Sohst. 2024. “Competing for Talent: Renewable Energy and Jobs: Annual Review What Role Can Employment- and Skills-Based 2023 . Abu Dhabi: IRENA. https://www.irena. Mobility Projects Play?” MPI Policy Brief. Migration org/Publications/2023/Sep/Renewable-energ Policy Institute Europe, Brussels. y-and-jobs-Annual-review-2023. Huckstep, S., and H. Dempster. 2024. “Meeting Skill Kshatri, S. 2024. “Data Shows Near-Threefold Needs for the Global Green Transition: A Role for Jump in Uncertified Teachers in B.C.” CBC, Labour Migration?” Policy Paper 318. Center for March 22. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ Global Development, Washington, DC. https:// british-columbia/reliance-on-uncertified-teacher www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/meeting-skil s-in-b-c-1.7147270. l-needs-global-green-transition-role-labour- migration.pdf. 134 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N Kumar, C., H. Dempster, M. O’Donnell, and C. MCC (Millennium Challenge Corporation). 2020. “Prin- Zimmer. 2022. “As the World Rapidly Ages, ciples into Practice: Training Service Delivery for We Need More Migrant Care Workers.” ODI Jobs & Productivity: MCC’s Lessons Learned Global expert comment, April 20. https://odi. in Technical and Vocational Education and org/en/insights/as-the-world-rapidly-ages-w Training.” https://assets.mcc.gov/content/uploads/ e-need-more-migrant-care-workers/. paper-2020001233801-p-into-p-tvet.pdf. Lamo, A., J. Messina, and E. Wasmer. 2011. “Are Specific Mendoza, D., D. Papademetriou, M. Desiderio, B. Salant, Skills an Obstacle to Labor Market Adjustment?” K. Hooper, and T. Elwood. 2017. Reinventing Mutual Labour Economics 18 (2): 240–56. https://doi. Recognition Arrangements: Lessons from Inter- org/10.1016/j.labeco.2010.09.006. national Experiences and Insights for the ASEAN Region. Manila: Asian Development Bank. https:// Liu, J., Y. Goryakin, A. Maeda, T. Bruckner, and R. Schef- www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/224071/ fler. 2017. “Global Health Workforce Labor Market reinventing-mras-asean.pdf. Projections for 2030.” Human Resources for Health 15 (1): 11. Miller, E. 2022. “Highly-Educated Undocumented Immigrants in the United States.” Center for Luciano, S., and M. Schimpf. 2021. “Triple Win Migration Studies of New York. https://cmsny.org/ Programme—Recruiting Nurses from Abroad educated-immigrants-millet-080122/. Sustainably.” Fact sheet. https://www.giz.de/en/ downloads/Factsheet_TripleWin_2021_en_.pdf. Monarch. 2023. “Nursing Immigration to Germany: Requirements and Process.” https://monarchco. Luthria, M. 2021. “Development Projects: Accessing de/en/post/nursing-immigration-to-germany. Overseas Employment Opportunities for Moroccan Youth.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https:// Net Zero Tracker. 2021. “Post-COP26 Snapshot.” https:// projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/ zerotracker.net/analysis/ post-cop26-snapshot. project-detail/P150064. NFER (National Foundation for Education Research). Madgavkar, A., O. White, S. Smit, C. Bradley, R. Luby, 2024. “Teacher Recruitment and Retention and M. Neary. 2024. “Help Wanted: Charting the Crisis Shows No Signs of Abating, New Report Challenge of Tight Labor Markets in Advanced Reveals.” Press release, March 20. https://www. Economies.” McKinsey Global Institute. https:// nfer.ac.uk/press-releases/teacher-recruitmen www.mckinsey.com/mgi/our-research/help-wante t-and-retention-crisis-shows-no- d-charting-the-challenge-of-tight-labor-market signs-of-abating-new-report-reveals/. s-in-advanced-economies. Nguyen, T., C. Lam, and P. Bruno. 2022. “Is There a Manpower Group. 2024. “2024 Global Talent Shortage.” National Teacher Shortage? A Systematic Exam- https://go.manpowergroup.com/hubfs/Talent%20 ination of Reports of Teacher Shortages in the Shortage/Talent%20Shortage%202024/MPG_ United States.” EdWorkingPaper 22-631. Annen- TS_2024_GLOBAL_Infographic.pdf. berg Institute at Brown University, Providence, RI. https://doi.org/10.26300/76eq-hj32. Marchand, K. 2023a. “Experiences, Benefits, and Challenges of Recruiting Apprentices and Skilled NLS (Nordiska Lärarorganisationers Samråd). 2023. Workers from Abroad.” Prepared as part of Teacher Shortage in the Nordic Countries: the support research for the regional program Comparing the Current Situation. Helsingfors, Towards a Holistic Approach to Labour Migration Finland: NLS. https://www.csee-etuce.org/images/ Governance and Labour Mobility in North Africa Reports/Teacher_shortage_NLS-report_22.11.2023. (THAMM-GIZ). pdf. Marchand, K. 2023b. “Participating in the THAMM Norlander, P. 2021. “Do Guest Worker Programs Give GIZ Mobility Scheme: Experiences, Benefits, and Firms Too Much Power?” IZA World of Labor. https:// Challenges from Tunisia.” Prepared as part of ecommons.luc.edu/business_facpubs/217/. the Support Research for the regional program “Towards a Holistic Approach to Labour Migration OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Governance and Labour Mobility in North Africa Development). 2010. “Database on Immigrants in (THAMM-GIZ).” OECD Countries: DIOC.” https://web-archive.oecd. org/temp/2021-01-14/212150-dioc.htm. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). 2019. Skills Strategy 2019: Skills to Shape a Better Future. Paris: OECD Publishing. R eferences 135 OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Peter G. Peterson Foundation. 2022. “The Ratio Development). 2020a. OECD Employment Outlook of Workers to Social Security Beneficiaries Is 2020: Worker Security and the COVID-19 Crisis. at a Low and Projected to Decline Further.” Paris: OECD Publishing. https://www.pgpf.org/blog/2022/08/the-rati o-of-workers-to-social-security-beneficiaries-is-a OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and t-a-low-and-projected-to-decline-further. Development). 2020b. “Contribution of Migrant Doctors and Nurses to Tackling COVID-19 Crisis Petrauskaite, M., and E. Tiongson. 2024. “The Number in OECD Countries.” OECD Policy Responses to of Job Vacancies around the World Is Still Unusu- Coronavirus (COVID-19). OECD Publishing, Paris. ally High—and There Is No End in Sight to the https://doi.org/10.1787/2f7bace2-en. Global Labor Shortage.” Fortune April 10. https:// fortune.com/2024/04/10/job-vacancies-world-hig OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and h-labor-shortage-demographics/. Development). 2021. Key Insights & Proposed Solutions from the Future of Care and the Care- Porsche Newsroom. 2015. “Prospects for Young Fili- giving Workforce: Lessons and Insights from the pinos.” Press release, November 24. https:// COVID-19 Experience. Paris: OECD Publishing. n e w s r o o m . p o r s c h e. c o m /e n /c o m p a ny/ https://www.oecd.org/health/Caregiving-Workforc porsche-training-recruitment-center-ptrc-volk e-Workshop-Report-Oct2021.pdf. swagen-audi-manila-12043.html. OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Porsche Newsroom. 2019. “Equipped for the Development). 2023. Education at a Glance: Future.” Press release, December 18. https:// OECD Indicators . Paris: OECD Publishing. newsroom.porsche.com/en/2019/company/ https://www.oecd-ilibrar y.org/education/ porsche-training-recruitment-center-asia-manila-f education-at-a-glance-2023_e13bef63-en. ilippinos-stuttgart-19592.html. Özden, Ç., and D. Phillips. 2015. “What Really Is Brain Pouliakas, K. 2018. “Automation Risk in the EU Labour Drain? Location of Birth, Education and Migration Market: A Skill-Needs Approach.” Cedefop, Thes- Dynamics of African Doctors.” KNOMAD Working saloniki, Greece. https://www.cedefop.europa.eu/ Paper 4, Global Knowledge Partnership on Migra- files/automation_risk_in_the_eu_labour_market. tion and Development, World Bank, Washington, pdf. DC. Pritchett, L. 2006. Let Their People Come: Breaking the Panhuys, C., S. Kazi Aoul, and G. Binette. 2017. “Migrant Gridlock on Global Labor Mobility. Washington, DC: Access to Social Protection under Bilateral Labour Center for Global Development. https://www.cgdev. Agreements: A Review of 120 Countries and Nine org/sites/default/files/9781933286105-Pritchet Bilateral Arrangements.” ILO Working Papers t-let-their-people-come.pdf. 994955792602676, International Labour Organi- zation, Geneva. Pritchett, L. 2024. “Rotational Labor Mobility Is the Biggest Global Economic Opportunity.” Unpub- Parrocha, A. 2022. “Marcos to US-Based OFWs: lished. Help Gov’t Reverse ‘Brain Drain’.” Philippine News Agency, September 19. https://www.pna.gov.ph/ Rodriguez, L. 2022. “Why the Global Skills Partnership articles/1183977. between Morocco and Belgium Is a Positive-Sum Game.” SAIS Review of International Affairs Passel, J., and D. Cohn. 2016. “Size of U.S. Unau- November 28. https://saisreview.sais.jhu.edu/ thorized Immigrant Workforce Stable after the morocco-belgium-global-skills-partnership/. Great Recession.” Pew Research Center, Wash- ington, DC. https://www.pewresearch.org/ Rodriguez, L. 2023. “Home and Away: Global Skill hispanic/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2016/11/ Partnership as Education-Labor Mobility Model LaborForce2016_FINAL_11.2.16-1.pdf. for the New Era?” Doctoral dissertation. Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore. https://jscholarship. Pekkala Kerr, S., W. Kerr, C. Özden, and C. Parsons. 2017. library.jhu.edu/items/36fd16c1-0f59-444c-bbb4- “High-skilled migration and agglomeration.” Annual 3214b97c107c. Review of Economics, 9 (1), 201–34. Roser, Max. 2024. “Fertility Rate.” Our World in Data. https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate. 136 G L O B A L S K I L L PA R T N E R S H I P S F O R M I G R AT I O N Santos, A.P. 2022. “Philippines: 400,000 Seafarers at UK Department of Education. 2020. “Guidance: Recruit Risk of Sailing Ban.” Deutsche Welle December Teachers from Overseas.” Accessed August 1, 2024. 26. https://www.dw.com/en/philippines-40000 https://www.gov.uk/guidance/recruit-teacher 0-seafarers-at-risk-of-sailing-ban/a-64213556. s-from-overseas. Schneider, J. 2023. “Labor Migration Schemes, Pilot UK Home Office. 2023. “Why Do People Come Partnerships, and Skills Mobility Initiatives in to the UK? To Work.” https://www.gov.uk/ Germany.” Background paper to the World Devel- g ove r n m e n t/s ta t i s t i c s / i m m i g ra t i o n - sys te opment Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and m-statistics-year-ending-june-2023/ Societies. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/ why-do-people-come-to-the-uk-to-work. publication/documents-reports/documentde tail/099071024113029746/p1782691a5b7970651a UN DESA (United Nations Department of Economic 37a12f64ee0c430d. and Social Affairs). 2022a. “World Popu- lation Prospects 2022: Data Sources.” Shah, C., and M. Long. 2009. “Labour Mobility and UN DESA/POP/2022/DC/NO. 9. UN, New York. Mutual Recognition of Skills and Qualifications: https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/ The European Union and Australia/New Zealand.” WPP2022_Data_Sources.pdf. In International Handbook of Education for the Changing World of Work, edited by R. Maclean UN DESA (United Nations Department of Economic and and D. Wilson, 2935–51. Springer. https://doi. Social Affairs). 2022b. “World Population Prospects org/10.1007/978-1-4020-5281-1. 2022: Methodology Report.” Population Division Report UN DESA/POP/2022/DC/NO.6. UN, New Singapore Ministry of Manpower. 2024. “Foreign York. https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/ Workforce Numbers.” https://www.mom.gov.sg/ Files/WPP2022_Methodology.pdf. documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce- numbers. UN DESA (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs). 2022c. World Population Pros- Tanaka, K., and K. Yoshimura. 2024. “Factors Associ- pects 2022: Summary of Results. New York: United ated with Foreign-Educated Nurses’ Willingness to Nations. https://www.un.org/development/desa/ Continue Working in Japan: A Qualitative Study.” pd/sites/www.un.org.development.desa.pd/files/ BMC Nursing 23 (April): 228. https://doi.org/10.1186/ wpp2022_summary_of_results.pdf. s12912-024-01890-4. UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and TESDA (Technical Education and Skills Develop- Cultural Organization). 2015. Unleashing the ment Authority). 2021. “Implementing Guidelines Potential: Transforming Technical and Vocational on Recognition of Micro-Credentials for Lifelong Education and Training. Paris: UNESCO Publishing. Learning and Upskilling/Reskilling’s of Learners in Technical Vocational Education and Training UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and (TVET).” Circular 048-2021. TESDA, Manila. https:// Cultural Organization). 2016. “UNESCO Strategy www.tesda.gov.ph/About/TESDA/27871. for Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) (2016–2021).” UNESCO Publishing, TESDA (Technical Education and Skills Develop- Paris. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/ ment Authority). 2024. “Domestic Work NC II.” pf0000245239. TESDA Online Program. https://e-tesda.gov. ph/?redirect=0#about-top. UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization). 2019. Global Education The Gleaner. 2024. “Education Ministry Recruiting Monitoring Report: Migration, Displacement and Foreign Teachers for New Academic Year.” Article, Education: Building Bridges, Not Walls. Paris: July 15. https://jamaica-gleaner.com/article/ UNESCO Publishing. news/20240715/education-ministry-recruiting-fore ign-teachers-new-academic-year. UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization). 2024. Global Report on Tyagi, A., S. Shejale, and N. Kuldeep. 2022. Upgrading Teachers: Addressing Teacher Shortages and Suryamitra Skill Development Programme: Transforming the Profession . Paris: UNESCO Improving Uptake and Employability of Suryam- Publishing. itras in the Solar Sector. New Delhi: Council on Energy, Environment and Water. https://www. ceew.in/publications/improving-employabilit y-of-suryamitra-skill-development-programme- in-solar-sector. R eferences 137 UNESCO-UNEVOC (United Nations Educational, World Bank. 2017. Kenya Training Assessment Project Scientific and Cultural Organization–International (TAP) Summary Report. Washington, DC: World Centre for Technical and Vocational Education and Bank. Training). 2021. Skills Development and Climate Change Action Plans: Enhancing TVET’s Contribu- World Bank. 2018. Moving for Prosperity: Global Migra- tion. Paris: UNESCO and Bonn: UNESCO-UNEVOC. tion and Labor Markets. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/ US Department of Labor. 2008. “Fact Sheet #62Q: What publication/moving-for-prosperity. Are ‘Exempt’ H-1B Nonimmigrants?” Wage and Hour Division fact sheet. https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ World Bank. 2023. World Development Report 2023: whd/fact-sheets/62q-h1b-exempt-workers. Migrants, Refugees, and Societies. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/ US Department of Labor. 2022. “US Department of Labor publication/wdr2023 Announces $80M Funding Opportunity to Help Train, Expand, Diversify Nursing Workforce; Address World Bank, UNESCO, and ILO (World Bank; United Shortage of Nurses.” News release, October 3. Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Orga- https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/eta/ nization; and International Labour Organization). eta20221003. 2023. Building Better Formal TVET Sys­ tems: Prin- ciples and Practice in Low- and Middle-Income US Department of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs. Countries. Washington, DC, Paris, Geneva: World 2023. “Nonimmigrant Visas Issued by Classification: Bank, UNESCO, and ILO. https://documents. Fiscal Years 2019–2023.” https://travel.state.gov/ worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/ content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/ documentdetail/099071123130516870/p17556603 nonimmigrant-visa-statistics.html 7a5e20650a657068b5152205bf Vodafone Foundation News. 2023. “Vodafone Foun- Yagi, N., T. Mackey, B. Liang, and L. Gerlt. 2014. “Policy dation and UNHCR Confirm Further Expansion of Review: Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Instant Network Schools for Refugees in 2024.” Agreement (JPEPA)—Analysis of a Failed Nurse Vodafone Foundation News, December 15. https:// Migration Policy.” International Journal of Nursing www.vodafone.com/news/vodafone-foundation/ Studies 51 (2): 243–50. vodafone-foundation-and-unhcr-confirm-further- ex p a n s i o n - o f - i n s ta n t- n et w o r k- s c h o o l s - f Yanatma, S. 2024. “Skill Shortages in Europe: Half or-refugees-in-2024. of Applicants Not Qualified.” Euronews, April 8. https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/04/08/ WHO (World Health Organization). 2010. “The WHO eu-jobs-crisis-as-employers-say-applicants-don Global Code of Practice on the International t-have-the-right-skills. Recruitment of Health Personnel.” WHO, Geneva. https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/3090/ Ziguras, C., and J. Barker. 2024. “Mutual Recogni- A63_R16-en.pdf?sequence=1. tion Agreements for Professional Qualifications and Licensure in APEC: Experiences, Impedi- WHO (World Health Organization). 2020. State of the ments and Opportunities.” Asia-Pacific Economic World’s Nursing 2020: Investing in Education, Jobs Cooperation (APEC) Secretariat, Singapore. and Leadership. Geneva: WHO. https://www.apec.org/docs/default-source/ publications/2024/2/224_gos_mutual-recognitio WHO (World Health Organization). 2024. Bilateral n-agreements-for-professional-qualifications-and- Agreements on Health Worker Migration and licensure-in-apec.pdf?sfvrsn=e37207cc_2. Mobility: Maximizing Health System Benefits and Safeguarding Health Workforce Rights and Welfare Zimbudzi, E. 2013. “Stemming the Impact of Health through Fair and Ethical International Recruitment. Professional Brain Drain from Africa: A Systemic Geneva: WHO. Review of Policy Options.” Journal of Public health in Africa 4 (1): e4. Woessmann, L. 2019. “Facing the Life-Cycle Trade-Off between Vocational and General Education in Apprenticeship Systems: An Economics-of-Education Perspective.” Journal for –46. https:// Educational Research Online 11 (1): 31­ doi.org/10.25656/01:16786.