2022/124 Supported by K NKONW A A WELDEGDEG E OL N ONTOET E S ESREI R E ISE S F OFRO R P R&A C T HTEH E NEENREGRYG Y ETX ITCREA C T I V E S G L O B A L P R A C T I C E THE BOTTOM LINE Powering through the Storm: Climate change and its impacts on power systems often mean Climate Resilience for Energy Systems more frequent power outages and repairs, which raise maintenance Why is resilience important for energy projects? reduced utilization of disrupted infrastructure exceed 0.8 percent— costs and pose other challenges. higher than most other regions globally. Unreliable power systems Yet proactive modifications in Resilience is important in all networked also require backup options, including diesel generators that have project design, maintenance, and infrastructure projects—especially those that high financial and environmental costs. Once parts of a system are operation can enhance system deliver critical services damaged, especially transmission and distribution assets, coordina- resilience at lower costs than tion across other infrastructure sectors, such as telecommunication In the context of a power system—and electricity services specifi- reactive adaptation. This Live and transportation, is required to access and repair the damaged cally—resilient service delivery means that end users (businesses, Wire considers the implications assets. The coordination and activation of supply chains, expertise, homes, community infrastructure) see minimal disruptions to of climate resilience in the power and emergency response planning must already be in place for electricity services even if certain aspects of the system suffer dam- sector and highlights ongoing timely repairs to occur. Taken together, the detrimental effects of ages or failures. Resilient energy projects are designed to continue World Bank work and best practice, hazards and climate change on power systems can disrupt progress delivering services even in the face of natural hazards (e.g., floods, with a focus on Africa. toward the Sustainable Development Goals, including those related landslides, cyclones, storms) and other stressors. If not accounted to health care, education, service provision, and economic growth. for in project design and operation, the impacts of such events may These challenges are particularly acute in Africa. result in the loss of electricity, revenue, and costly repairs. Ultimately, Fortunately, opportunities abound to incorporate resilience integrating resilience early in project design and implementation in new infrastructure projects. In most cases, engineering and Amy Schweikert is a protects investments and delivers lasting benefits. systems-level solutions are available to reduce the vulnerability climate change consultant The threat to infrastructure assets from natural hazards and of power assets to stressors and increase the overall reliability at the World Bank. climate change (which will increase the frequency and magnitude of service. For example, assets within a system can be built to of natural hazards) is widely recognized.1 The direct costs from withstand hazard conditions (a process known as “hardening”), or a Celine Ramstein is a reduced power utilization and lost sales—not to mention lost lives system can be designed to quickly re-route power or include backup climate change and energy and livelihoods—are estimated at $120 billion annually in low- and options such as batteries, diesel generators, or other technologies specialist at the World Bank, middle- income countries. In many parts of Africa, losses from (“redundancy”). When damages exceed operational levels, repairs working in the Africa region. can be accelerated if disaster-management plans include pre-stock- Claire Nicolas is a senior 1. This section draws on the following works: Albert, Albert, and Nakarado (2004); Cervigni et piling of parts, access to trained personnel, and secure access to energy economist at the al. (2015); CIMA Research Foundation (2019); Comes and de Walle (2014); Fekete, Hufschmidt, and Kruse (2014); Hallegatte, Rentschler, and Rozenberg (2019); Karagiannis et al. (2017); Loggins sites (“repairs and recovery”). All of these measures increase the World Bank. et al. (2019); Murphy et al. (2020); New York Power Authority et al. (2017); Nicolas et al. (2019); resilience of critical power assets and systems. Oguah and Khosla (2017); Panteli and Mancarella (2015); Schweikert and Deinert (2021); and Sebastian et al. (2017). 2 P O W E R I N G T H R O U G H T H E S TO R M : C L I M AT E R E S I L I E N C E F O R E N E R G Y S YS T E M S Energy systems are central to the operation of many other sense based on current and future conditions. A recent World connected systems. The reliable supply of electricity is essential for Bank report (Hallegatte, Rentschler, and Rozenberg 2019) assessed financial and banking operations, water and wastewater treatment, thousands of scenarios of future socioeconomic and climate trends transportation, telecommunications, health services, and educational in an effort to quantify how various patterns of investment in facilities. A power system encompasses transmission and distribution resilient infrastructure would fare financially. The report found that The recognition that infrastructure (a complex, networked system in itself), and generation in 96 percent of scenarios, investing in more resilient infrastructure proactive resilience facilities that can include everything from standalone solar and wind was beneficial. On average, every $1 invested returned $4 in lifetime to large nuclear power facilities. Depending on fuel type, natural benefits, a net savings in low- and middle-income countries of planning and investments gas and pipeline infrastructure can also be considered part of the $4.2 trillion. The savings were nearly doubled when climate change can have positive impacts broader power system, as can mining facilities, waste disposal, and scenarios were included in the calculations. across project lifetimes regulatory and oversight bodies. When available, probabilistic risk analyses enable robust assess- in terms of both financial For each of these elements, it is important to understand not ments of life-cycle costs to inform appropriate investment strategies. only the asset-specific vulnerabilities but how a failure, or even a These cover routine construction and maintenance costs, repair return and delivery of delay, in the operation of one subsystem can affect others. For exam- costs from hazard events, and the expected probabilities of damages services motivated the ple, the failure of a pipeline delivering fuel to a generation facility not from different natural hazard and climate change events. However, creation and deployment only delays the transportation of fuel but can also reduce generation such analyses may be difficult to conduct where data on infrastruc- of the Resilience Rating capacity, limit output to the grid, and ultimately affect prices, electric- ture performance, key risks, and costs are lacking. ity supply, and other important factors. These cascading failures are System at the World Bank. complex and are best understood using systems analysis, as is often How do you build resilience into an energy-system done to plan generation and transmission. project? The recognition that proactive resilience planning and invest- ments can have positive impacts across project lifetimes in terms of Asset hardening, operations and maintenance, and both financial return and delivery of services motivated the creation efficient disaster response and recovery plans can all and deployment of the Resilience Rating System2 at the World Bank. be used to increase resilience Two sides of resilience are considered. The first is the resilience of a project—that is, how a project performs under stress from discrete After identifying the greatest threats and gathering information on events like a cyclone or flood, as well as ongoing stresses from the local context (including institutional capacity and resources), one climate change. The second is the resilience created by a project— can proceed with investment planning.3 For energy infrastructure, that is, the additional resilience of the sector or beneficiaries brought resilient investments can be classified into four categories: about by the project. In the energy sector, projects that add resilience include those designed to increase electricity access and reliability, • Those that reduce asset vulnerability to build capacity, and to improve maintenance and emergency • Those that reduce liabilities and hazardous conditions created by procedures. Strengthening a project’s resilience, meanwhile, might infrastructure include asset hardening, siting considerations, emergency planning, • Those that enhance the reliability and service delivery of the supply chain considerations, and more. electricity network Is increased resilience worth the costs? Careful planning can • Those that reduce the response time and increase the capacity inform how, when, and if resilience-enhancing investments make to respond when natural hazards occur. 3. This section draws on the following works: Balaraman (2020); DELWP (2020); Engie Impact 2. The Resilience Rating System methodology is detailed in World Bank Group (2021). Many of (2021a); Hirabayashi et al. (2013); Liu, Stanturf, and Goodrick (2010); Nicolas et al. (2019); Sch- the projects described in this Live Wire are part of pilots applying these concepts. weikert and Deinert (2021); and Smith et al. (2017). 3 P O W E R I N G T H R O U G H T H E S TO R M : C L I M AT E R E S I L I E N C E F O R E N E R G Y S YS T E M S Each type of investment can occur at various times in the Designing lines with aerial bundled cable and conductors in high-risk planning, construction, and operation of an energy system. Some regions could reduce the likelihood of such risks but requires an investments are small, while others entail high up-front costs or additional investment of up to 60 percent of construction costs. ongoing maintenance requirements. Less expensive options include vigilant vegetation management and Assets can be made less vulnerable by siting them turning the lines off at times of extreme risk (e.g., during periods of Increasing resilience is outside the highest-risk regions and by hardening infrastructure—for high winds and drought). about finding the right example, designing it with specifications that ensure it can sustain The reliability of service delivery can be enhanced through natural hazards of greater intensity than historical conditions may routine maintenance, emergency backup generation options, and balance of redundancy, indicate. Geospatial analysis is one way to identify high-risk regions. redundant systems. For photovoltaic panels, regular maintenance— hardening, and readiness Systematic assessment of proposed infrastructure locations can including inspection for damages and dirt—can ensure that the to respond and rebuild help identify the expected historical stressors and projected climate arrays are delivering their full generation potential. This requires rapidly when a disaster hits. change impacts by location. This is particularly important in the face access to the infrastructure and therefore raises the question of of climate change, as many design standards are based on historical panel placement (e.g., rooftops can be difficult to access). For battery conditions that may not encompass the range of extreme events storage, ensuring that ventilation systems are clean, free of debris, expected. In many locations, climate change is expected to exac- and adequate for cooling during times of high demand ensures erbate the frequency or severity of flooding, for example, and may proper system operation and minimizes damages. This is particularly increase the expected damages to infrastructure. Several adaptation true as elevated temperatures can increase the rate of battery and mitigation strategies may be employed. If possible, not siting degradation. assets in high-risk regions may be the most cost-effective approach. Completely avoiding all damages from climate change and If this is not possible, adaptation options might include elevating natural hazards is not possible—and trying to achieve it would be photovoltaic panels and other infrastructure assets, building flood extremely costly. Increasing resilience is instead about finding the walls, or waterproofing key components. It is also important to right balance of redundancy, hardening, and readiness to respond assess the direction and speed of strong wind events, especially and rebuild rapidly when a disaster hits. for rooftop-mounted photovoltaic systems. Inevitably, some assets The final component of a resilient power system is an emer- cannot fully avoid high-risk locations. In this case, identifying the gency response plan. This should consider trained personnel, expected stress from natural hazards and climate change can inform access to infrastructure, communication, available supplies, and design decisions. broader system capacity. In regions that contain critical assets, the Reducing the liability or risks that infrastructure poses to siting of a warehouse stocked with supplies can help ensure that the environment and communities it serves is an important aspect of parts are available when needed. Equally important are trained resilient siting, design, and operation. Transmission and distribution personnel to implement the needed repairs. Their successful systems can pose a risk of wildfires, especially during hot, dry deployment in turn relies on access to damaged regions (requiring periods. This can occur in several ways, but it typically involves the functional roads and equipment) as well as telecommunication and arcing, or contact, of transmission or distribution wires with very other services. An emergency response and preparedness plan that dry vegetation. For example, Pacific Gas and Electric Company in includes these considerations can enhance system resilience and the United States filed for bankruptcy in January 2019 owing to an broader institutional capacity. Many of the power projects in Sub- estimated liability of $30 billion from wildfires caused by power lines Saharan African countries include specific components for institu- it owned and operated. The fires killed over 100 people, burned tional capacity building, including a disaster risk management plan. thousands of acres, and required compensation of billions of dollars. 4 P O W E R I N G T H R O U G H T H E S TO R M : C L I M AT E R E S I L I E N C E F O R E N E R G Y S YS T E M S How have these concepts been applied? steel increased overall project resilience and reduced the need for ongoing maintenance. For the entire project, a cost increase of just Several World Bank energy projects in Africa recently over 2 percent was estimated to reduce damages in these high-risk incorporated resilience in their preparation, design, regions by up to 90 percent. and operations In Sudan, geospatial risk analysis was used to identify current Several low-cost and planned assets at risk from flooding. A sample risk analysis A recent study in Benin included a cost-benefit analysis of various investments to reduce based on that project appears as figure 1. backup and redundancy options for electricity generation, storage, assets’ vulnerability to and distribution.4 This allowed for a life-cycle comparison of the costs natural hazards were of implementation of each strategy alongside a cost assessment Figure 1. Sample hazard assessment highlighting grid assets of the likelihood of outages and the resulting impacts from loss of vulnerable to flooding identified across multiple service. For backup diesel generators, the capital cost was estimated projects. These included at $800 per kilowatt installed and an operating cost of $20 per simple maintenance kilowatt installed for maintenance and $0.25 per kilowatt-hour for activities, such as regular fuel. Additional considerations included the looping of lines to create redundancy, estimated at an additional construction cost of $30,000 vegetation management per kilometer. Where mini- or micro-grid resources exist, resilient and turning off the lines design could include the ability of a system to decouple and operate during periods of high wind as a standalone resource for emergency backup power. and drought. Several low-cost investments to reduce assets’ vulnerability to natural hazards were identified across multiple projects. These included simple maintenance activities, such as regular vegetation management (at approximately $800 per kilometer) and turning off the lines during periods of high wind and drought. In Cabo Verde, a multi-island assessment of projects looked at how siting, design, and infrastructure affected the resilience of 0 2 renewable energy. One project that expanded rooftop solar to local Kilometers health care clinics had to consider strong island winds, requiring additional mounting and bracketing to ensure the solar panels were firmly attached. In many cases, the existing roof structure was not Grid infrastructure Increasing vulnerability by water depth (m) designed to accommodate these requirements, requiring additional Vulnerable grid ≤ 0.01 investment. ≤ 3.93 ≤ 7.85 A resilience assessment of a grid extension project in ≤ 999 (permanent water) Mozambique found that planned distribution infrastructure in State boundaries certain locations would have high exposure to fires and cyclones. In these locations, changing the distribution poles from wood to Source: World Bank Group. 4. This section draws on the following works: DELWP (2020); Engie Impact (2021b); Karagiannis et al. (2017); and Thacker et al. (2018). 5 P O W E R I N G T H R O U G H T H E S TO R M : C L I M AT E R E S I L I E N C E F O R E N E R G Y S YS T E M S In Tanzania, a recent project increased the number of house- exposure and damage. For substations, elevating the cabin at the hold grid connections and rehabilitated and expanded distribution time of construction does increase the initial construction cost. A infrastructure. Some of the locations considered were prone to study of UK substation hardening suggested that elevating substa- frequent flooding at depths of 0.5 meters or more, the standard tions to 1.2 meters represents a 7 percent increase over base costs. height for installation. For new household connections, ensuring that However, the action is recommended because it is likely to reduce For substations, elevating the installation is above the expected flood depths can be done at lifetime operational exposure to flood events that can result in costly the cabin at the time of little to no cost. Similarly, ensuring that pole-mounted transformers repairs and extended network downtime. This and other simple mea- sit at least 2–3 meters above expected flood depths can reduce sures to protect assets from flooding appear in the photos below. construction does increase the initial construction Examples of adaptation measures to protect infrastructure assets from flooding cost. However, the action a. Elevated PV array using concrete blocks b. Elevated substation is recommended because it is likely to reduce lifetime operational exposure to flood events that can result in costly repairs and extended network downtime. c. Ventilation units raised above the battery energy storage system d. Elevated battery energy storage system a. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_mounting_system. Licensed for free use under by CC 2.0 b. https://side.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/NORM/doc/SYRACUSE/6934/reduire-la-vulnerabilite-des-reseaux-urbains-aux-inondations. c and d. https://www.blackshieldshvac.com/applications/climate-control-solutions-for-bess/ 6 P O W E R I N G T H R O U G H T H E S TO R M : C L I M AT E R E S I L I E N C E F O R E N E R G Y S YS T E M S Many of the interventions listed above do incur some initial Ongoing efforts to develop and maintain a resource base of costs, although these vary widely by intervention type. Each reduces resilience expertise, and to fill data and funding gaps, are crucial damage and life-cycle costs, including for repairs. Whether a solution to improving future projects. Several resources developed by the is appropriate can be assessed based upon the life-cycle risk of World Bank for its ongoing resilience work include Think Hazard.org damage, the costs of repairs, and the indirect costs of lost power to (https://thinkhazard.org/en/), the Climate Change Knowledge Portal Considering resilience consumers. Similar adaptations have been considered for projects in for Development Practitioners and Policy Makers (https://climate- early in project Tanzania, Benin, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. knowledgeportal.worldbank.org), the Resilience Booster Tool (https:// resiliencetool.worldbank.org/#/home), and Eskedar (2021). New ones conceptualization—in What can policy makers do to move toward a more are being continuously improved as lessons are learned. siting, design, maintenance, robust, resilient system? This Live Wire was peer reviewed by Debabrata Chattopadhyay, senior energy operations, disaster risk management, and They can make sure resilience is considered from the specialist at the World Bank. response plans—can start, and that adequate policy, budget, and staffing References increase the resilience of are in place to enhance resilience Albert, R., I. Albert, and G. L. Nakarado. 2004. “Structural Vulnerability important infrastructure Considering resilience early in project conceptualization—in siting, of the North American Power Grid.” Physical Review E 69 (2): design, maintenance, operations, disaster risk management, and 025103. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.69.025103. assets. response plans—can increase the resilience of important infrastruc- Balaraman, K. 2020. “PG&E Exits Bankruptcy, but long-Term Wildfire ture assets. Engagement with stakeholders on the ground through- Risk Could Put It ‘Back in the Soup.’” Utility Dive, July 6. Accessed out the design and building processes can ensure that lessons on December 7, 2021. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/pge- learned in other projects are integrated appropriately. While many exits-bankruptcy-but-long-term-wildfire-risk-could-put-it-back- tools are available to support specific aspects of project resilience, in-th/581017/. challenges remain. These include funding for up-front resilience Cervigni, R., R. Liden, J. E. Neumann, and K. M. Strzepek. 2015. studies and efforts to raise awareness, as well as regulations to Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure: The incentivize related investments and ongoing work to identify better Power and Water Sectors. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. quantitative toolkits and approaches for understanding resilience CIMA (International Centre on Environmental Monitoring) Research within and across sectors. 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Finally, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania State University. http://idl.iscram.org/ efforts to increase resilience may impose additional up-front costs files/comes/2014/408_Comes+VanDeWalle2014.pdf. that may strain initial budgets. 7 P O W E R I N G T H R O U G H T H E S TO R M : C L I M AT E R E S I L I E N C E F O R E N E R G Y S YS T E M S DELWP (Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning). 2020. Murphy, C., E. Hotchkiss, K. Anderson, C. Barrows, S. Cohen, S. Dalvi, PB Report: Indicative Costs for Replacing SWER Lines. Victoria, N. Laws, J. Maguire, G. Stephen, and E. Wilson. 2020. Adapting Australia: DELWP , Victoria State Government. Accessed March 29, Existing Energy Planning, Simulation, and Operational Models 2021. https://www.energy.vic.gov.au/safety-and-emergencies/ for Resilience Analysis. 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Wallace. 2019. “CRISIS: Modeling the Restoration of Interdependent Civil and Social Infrastructure Systems Following an Extreme Event.” Natural Hazards Review 20 (3): 04019004. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000326. 8 P O W E R I N G T H R O U G H T H E S TO R M : C L I M AT E R E S I L I E N C E F O R E N E R G Y S YS T E M S Sebastian, A., B. Kothuis, K. Lendering, S. N. Jonkman, A. D. Brand, P. Thacker, S., S. Kelly, R. Pant, and J. W. Hall. 2018. “Evaluating MAKE FURTHER H. A. J. M. van Gelder, M. Godfroij, B. Kolen, M. Comes, S. L. M. the Benefits of Adaptation of Critical Infrastructures to CONNECTIONS Lhermitte, K. Meesters, B. A. van de Walle, A. Ebrahimi Fard, S. Hydrometeorological Risks.” Risk Analysis 38 (1): 134–50. doi: Cunningham, N. Khakzad, and V. Nespeca. 2017. Hurricane Harvey 10.1111/risa.12839. Live Wire 2015/43. “Integrating Climate Report: A Fact-Finding Effort in the Direct Aftermath of Hurricane World Bank Group. 2021. Resilience Rating System: A Methodology Model Data into Power System Planning,” by Debabrata Chattopadhyay and Rhonda Harvey in the Greater Houston Region. Delft: Delft University for Building and Tracking Resilience to Climate Change. L. Jordan. Publishers. https://repository.tudelft.nl/islandora/object/uuid:54c Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank. 24519-c366-4f2f-a3b9-0807db26f69c?collection=research. org/handle/10986/35039. Live Wire 2016/59. “Are Power Utilities in Tonga and New Zealand Resilient? Smith, K., A. Saxon, M. Keyser, B. Lundstrom, Z. Cao, and A. Roc. 2017. Human and Organizational Factors in “Life Prediction Model for Grid-Connected Li-ion Battery Energy Disaster Response,” by Ray Brown, Storage System.” In 2017 American Control Conference (ACC), Xiaoping Wang, and Christopher Page. 4062–68, Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers. doi: Live Wire 2016/60. “Toward Climate- 10.23919/ACC.2017.7963578. Resilient Hydropower in South Asia,” by Pravin Karki, Laura Bonzanigo, Haruhisa Ohtsuka, and Sanjay Pahuja. Live Wire 2016/65. “Improving Transmission Planning: Examples from Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal,” by Kavita Saraswat and Amol Gupta. Live Wire 2017/84. “Disaster Preparation Offers Big Payoffs for Utilities,” by Samuel Oguah and Sunil Khosla. Live Wire 2021/117. “Climate and Disaster Risk Screening: Making Energy Projects More Resilient,” by Eskedar Bahru Gessesse. Find these and the entire Live Wire archive at www.worldbank.org/energy/livewire.