TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change REPORT SUMMARY © 2025 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Attribution Please cite the work as follows: “World Bank. 2025. Tajikistan: Taking A Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change © World Bank.” TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 3 All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Acknowledgements This report provides a better understanding of ways in which to address the gender and social dimensions of climate change in key sectors of the Tajik economy. It focuses on the impact of climate change on vulnerable groups— particularly on women and girls, youth, persons with disabilities, and the elderly. It also includes the subregions most at risk of the social impacts emerging as a result of climate change. The report complements the publication, World Bank Country Climate and Development Report: Tajikistan (2024). The report was co-led by World Bank staff Sana Zia (Senior Social Development Specialist, Europe and Central Asia), Erik Johnson (Lead Social Development Specialist, Europe and Central Asia), and Christopher Finch (Senior Social Development Specialist, Europe and Central Asia). It was authored by Annisa Sekaringtias and Saagarika Dadu- Brown from Aleph Strategies, a consulting firm, with support from Rangina Jumakhonova and Jonathan Rider. Various World Bank staff have provided inputs as peer reviewers, including Elena Strukova Golub, Ezgi Canpolat, and Hazem Ibrahim Hanbal. Jose Antonio Cuesta Leiva and Natalia Pecorari from the World Bank have developed and contributed indices related to Social Sustainability using data from Tajikistan. The team is also grateful to Nasiba Saidova (Program Assistant, WBG Country Management Unit, Tajikistan) for the administrative support extended in making this report happen. The research team would like to thank the many government agencies that have participated in the relevant consultation meetings, in particular the staff of Tajikistan’s Ministry of Agriculture; Ministry of Energy and Water Resources; Ministry of Labor, Migration and Employment TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially of Population; Committee of Environmental Protection; Inclusive Committee of Women and Family Affairs; and Committee Approach to Climate Change of Emergency Situations and Civil Defence. Appreciation also goes to Margie Peters-Fawcett for the editing of the 4 report. The research team also offers gratitude to Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) in Central Asia for their partnership and support. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS page 4 CONTENTS page 5 FIGURES, TABLES & ABBREVIATIONS page 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY page 7 RECOMMENDATIONS page 10 INTRODUCTION page 12 1 METHODOLOGY page 14 2 INDIVIDUAL AND COMMUNITY-BASED VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE 2.1 Climate Change Threats, Risks, and Vulnerabilities | page 15 2.2 Transition, Adaptation Risks, and Vulnerabilities: A Green Transition | page 22 2.3 Migration | page 26 3 GOVERNMENT POLICY AND CAPACITY 3.1 Analysis of Social Inclusion in Climate Change Policies | page 30 3.2 Government Capacity at the National and Subnational Levels | page 33 3.3 Remaining Gaps in Government Plans and Policies | page 36 COMMUNITY-BASED AND LOCALLY 4 LED CLIMATE ACTION page 38 5 RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Agriculture | page 41 5.2 Energy | page 41 5.3 Jobs and Business Development | page 42 5.4 Social Protection | page 43 5.5 Local Government | page 43 5.6 Civic Engagement | page 44 REFERENCES page 45 ANNEX page 50 FIGURES Figure 1 Climate Change Risks Are Likely to Affect the page 17 Vulnerability of Women to Specific Forms of Abuse Figure 2 Combined Assessment of Social and Environmental Sustainability page 21 Figure 3 Groups and Specific Regions in Tajikistan that Are page 22 Vulnerable To Green Transition Figure 4 Projected Trends in Tajikistan’s In- and Out-Migration by 2030 page 26 Figure 5 Overview of Compound and Climate-Driven page 27 Migration Risks across Regional Tajikistan TABLES Table 1 Regional Impact on Key Groups: Women, Children, People with Disabilities, and the Elderly Face Cross-Cutting, Intersectional, page 20 and Compound Table 2 S ​ ector-Specific Opportunities for the Inclusion page 25 of Marginalized Groups in Transition Table 3 Key Government Documents and Aspects of Inclusivity page 31 ABBREVIATIONS CSO Civil Society Organization DRS​​ Districts of Republican Subordination GBAO ​​ Autonomous Oblast of Gorno-Badakhshan GBV ​​Gender-Based Violence NSACC National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change until 2030 ​​ NDC ​​Nationally Determined Contributions SG ​​Subnational Government EXECUTIVESUMMARY 1 Climate change is known to worsen the inequality of people across the globe, disproportionately affecting the poorest and most vulnerable who contribute least to the crisis. These groups are faced with significant challenges emanating from extreme weather events, including health risks and the loss of livelihoods, often due to underlying socioeconomic and cultural disparities. Effective climate action stands in need of an approach that is socially inclusive—one that will address inequality at multiple levels. By design, climate policies must not unintentionally inflict pain on vulnerable populations. Rather, to ensure that climate solutions are effective and just, policy decision- making must include active societal participation in broadening the knowledge base and fostering community resilience. 2 The success of Tajikistan’s climate actions will depend not only on ensuring that its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) commitments take into account the various social dimensions, including gender, but also that local governments will be involved at the grassroots level. This report attempts to identify and clarify the actions that are essential to Tajikistan’s progress on these issues within the climate change agenda, including the strengthening of government capacity; capitalizing on green economic opportunities for women and youth; broadening inclusive climate programs to support vulnerable groups; and enhancing community-based adaptation initiatives. A review of the capacities of national and subnational government entities is required to establish whether they are sufficiently capable of cross- sectoral coordination to effectively integrate gender-sensitive practices into climate policymaking and policy implementation. 3 Tajikistan has various vulnerable groups who face social exclusion as a result of poverty, gender inequality, geographic isolation, and limited access to education and healthcare. These include women, children, youth, the elderly, persons with disabilities, and rural populations as well as those living in border regions. Impacts of climate change (e.g., altered precipitation, water scarcity, flooding, and extreme weather events) significantly threaten the country’s agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods, thus increasing the vulnerability of these groups. Women have limited employment opportunities beyond the agriculture sector; they also face educational disparities, inadequate healthcare, and widespread gender-based violence. The high rate of male labor migration only compounds these issues, with women often being left on their own to manage the household as well as their agricultural responsibilities. With regard to children and youth, particularly in rural and mountainous regions, there is inadequate access to education and healthcare. The elderly and people with disabilities face profound isolation and lack specialized services, especially in remote areas. Rural populations, heavily reliant on agriculture, suffer from limited resources and opportunities, made more challenging from climate change impacts. 4 As a result of climate change, Tajikistan is experiencing a rise in groups becoming vulnerable, including those affected by climate- induced migration. Annually, approximately 29,800 people, primarily in the Khatlon region, are affected by floods. Over 41,000 internal displacements have been recorded during the period from 2008 to 2022. Based on climate projections, floods and mudslides will become more prevalent due to accelerated snow and glacial melt. This migration pressure will only worsen, making the policies currently in place unable to fully address the climate- induced issues. Resettlement programs, led by the government of Tajikistan, primarily focus on individuals affected in terms of infrastructure, neglecting those displaced due to the slow onset of climate change effects. Efforts to integrate migration, environment, and climate change into an integral legal framework is underway but remain insufficient. By 2050, it is projected that the Ferghana Valley and the lower southern regions, including Dushanbe, Kulob, and Istaravshan that border Uzbekistan, will become climate migration hotspots due to their comparatively better water availability and crop production. In the absence of appropriate planning, this will only increase inequality and social tension in urban centers, stressing already vulnerable border communities even further. 5 Agriculture is exceedingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, whereby the demand for irrigation is predicted to increase and productivity to decline within the next 20–30 years, particularly those crops and livestock that depend on rainfed areas. Since agriculture accounts for nearly 24 percent of the economy, this is of critical concern. The agriculture sector is considered the largest employer, with a majority of smallholder farmers who cultivate less than two hectares. While women play an essential role in the agriculture production, they face a number of challenges as a result of the changing climate, lack of access to knowledge, and introduction of new practices, added to limited— and expensive— access to finance. Were there to be no actions taken to ameliorate their situation, including expansion of the knowledge base and application of climate-smart agricultural practices, not only will the livelihoods of rural areas suffer but food security will be negatively impacted. 6 Local governments require clear direction and the capacity to influence the formulation and delivery of inclusive climate action plans with adaptive strategies. While effective climate adaptation relies on local governments (hukumats, jamoats, and mahallas) to have the knowledge and capacity to act affirmatively, their roles are unclear, capacities are weak, and financing for climate action is inadequate. Although the two local governments work closely with local communities, they have limited authority and also lack the capacity and financing to effectively address the challenges of climate change. For instance, the jamoats have authority to manage the allocation of land and water resources as well as resolve disputes; however, the final decision-making and funding resources rest with the district hukumats. Similarly, while the mahallas are tasked with collecting climate data, they nevertheless do not have the capacity to carry out the relative analyses and reporting, which weakens their ability to effectively contribute to cross-sectoral climate action. 7 Local communities are neither sufficiently knowledgeable of the issues nor do they have the capacity to partake in the decision- making process. A 2021 World Bank survey (unpublished) of nearly 8,000 households across Tajikistan’s rural districts suggests that almost half of the respondents having reported reduced agricultural productivity due to recent natural disasters. Aside from the need for adaptation, most households feel their efforts have proved ineffective, thus fostering little confidence in their own ability to mitigate future disasters. Furthermore, the Government of Tajikistan has reported a significant low level of climate change awareness and access to information within rural communities. TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 9 RECOMMENDATIONS With various actions having been identified, this report places high priority on the part of Tajikistan’s national and local governments, as well as its key stakeholders, to respond to the climate change issues in a more socially inclusive and gender-equitable manner. While details regarding such actions are included in Section 5 (Recommendations) of this report, the following provides a summary: AGRICULTURE • Expand sustainable agriculture for food security and promote agricultural tourism practices to create environmental job opportunities for rural women and youth. ENERGY • Promote the use of benefit-sharing mechanisms for equitable use of TAJIKISTAN hydro and renewable resources for inclusive growth. Taking a Socially Inclusive • Put in place programs for vulnerable communities to benefit from the Approach to green energy transition in a more equitable manner. Climate Change • Empower communities through energy efficiency initiatives to enhance 10 access to energy, bolster security and resilience while reducing women’s household burdens and boosting productivity. JOBS AND BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT • Promote green jobs as an opportunity to improve the economic prospects for women, youth, rural communities, and climate migrants. • Create more economically inclusive opportunities for women in the distributed renewables sector to establish a gender-balanced workforce. • Enhance programs for financial inclusion that target vulnerable groups in order to boost economic opportunities at the local level. EDUCATION • Integrate climate change topics in the educational curricula. • Establish platforms like Climate Action Labs for youth to come together, discuss climate issues, identify solutions and meaningfully inform the decision-making processes. SOCIAL PROTECTION • Develop adaptive social protection measures to align disaster risk reduction with climate adaptation efforts. LOCAL GOVERNMENT • Build the climate adaptation and mitigation capabilities of local government in order to achieve Tajikistan’s Nationally Determined Contributions. • Support local governments and youth communities in spearheading innovative initiatives to engage vulnerable groups in climate actions with the offer of immediate environmental benefit and of long-term educational and leadership development opportunities. TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially CIVIC ENGAGEMENT Inclusive Approach to • Invest in awareness and behavioral change programs at the national Climate Change level so as to foster community ownership of locally led climate actions. 11 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Climate change serves as a stark reminder of the ever-increasing social inequalities across the globe which are disproportionately impacting those who are the most at risk and yet who contribute the least to the gradual degradation of the environment. The Intergovernmental Panel on ity, on the other hand, relates to the Climate Change defines vulnerability degree to which a system is affected, as “the degree to which a system is adversely or beneficially, by the vari- susceptible to, and unable to cope ability of or a change in climate (e.g., with, adverse effects of climate agriculture). The individual dimen- change, including climate variability sion of vulnerability stems from the and extremes. It is a function of the lack of adaptive capacity or ability character, magnitude, and rate of of a system, community, or individ- climate variation to which a sys- ual to adjust to climate change in tem is exposed, its sensitivity, and such a way as to moderate potential its adaptive capacity” (IPCC, 2001). damage, take advantage of op- This report takes into consideration portunities, and/or cope with the not only the external but also the consequences. These dimensions individual dimension of vulnerability. call attention to the need to consider The external dimension on the one not only the external environment hand relates to exposure; that is, but also the capacities of the indi- the presence of people, livelihoods, vidual to cope effectively and adapt environmental services and resourc- to the challenges of climate change es, and infrastructure as well as the in parallel to being socially included economic, social, or cultural assets with equity in the process. Annex in places that could be adversely I includes a glossary of key terms affected by climate change. Sensitiv- mentioned in this report. TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 12 Tajikistan’s socioeconomic landscape, where 72 percent of the 1.2 population resides in its rural areas is prone to various risks, par- ticularly among women who face the triple burden of household leadership, agricultural labor, and unpaid care work. The country’s mountainous terrain already at risk, which urgently compounds these obstacles and requires cross-cutting and inclusive increases the risk of disaster and policymaking to address increas- threatened livelihoods. Border ing gender and social disparities. communities—already strained by While Tajikistan accounts for but resource competition—face height- a fraction of global emissions, its ened exposure to the effects of excessive susceptibility neverthe- climate change, calling for agree- less underscores the cruciality for ments that will be effective and will resilience building and creation of build their resilience. Moreover, environmental employment oppor- internal and external migrations tunities, particularly with regard to caused by climate events place these communities. further stress on populations 1.3 This report represents an initial step in the interrelationship be- tween climate change and its impacts on those in Tajikistan who are vulnerable and socially excluded—many of whom have yet to bene- fit from government intervention. The analysis in this report builds on and complements previous studies (e.g., World Bank 2017 and World Bank 2024d). TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 13 1. METHODOLOGY 1.1 The conceptual framework tainable economic development. of this report represents a Focus on these is informed by structured approach to com- Tajikistan’s socioeconomic profile prehending the interaction (whereby agriculture constitutes between climate change and 60 percent of employment and 22 Tajikistan’s need for social percent of gross domestic prod- inclusion. uct (Sevimli and Jungbluth 2022)) and energy mix (whereby 90 It is essential to dissect the com- percent of electricity is generated plex layers that exist within the by hydropower (GoT 2021)). These environmental and socioeconomic two sectors represent the most challenges experienced across significant source of Tajikistan’s the various regions of the country emissions, with energy account- and within its communities. The ing for 50 percent (including analysis is based on two sectors energy use in transport, industry, (i.e., the environmental nexus be- and buildings), agriculture sector tween agriculture and water; and accounting 40 percent and 10 energy systems and net-zero percent coming from waste (Euro- pathways) that are central to the pean Commission 2023a). Energy World Bank Country Climate and and agriculture sectors also form Development Report on Tajikistan a part of the five priorities identi- (2024c) and pivotal to its sus- fied in Tajikistan’s updated NDC. TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 14 2. INDIVIDUAL AND COMMUNITY-BASED VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE 2.1 Climate Change Threats, thus affecting food security and in- Risks, and Vulnerabilities come (World Bank, UN, FCDO 2021). Water resources for hydroelectric 2.1.1 The social exclusion profile power and irrigation are threatened of Tajikistan has several inter- by glacial melt and changing snow- linked factors, including pover- fall patterns, while natural disasters ty, gender, inequality, limited (e.g., floods and avalanches) disrupt access to education and health- economic activities and displace com- care, and geographic isolation. munities (World Bank 2017). Health Tajikistan’s poverty scenario not risks from climate change increase only relates to the lack of income the spread of infectious diseases but also to reduced access to which strain healthcare services, raise essential resources, malnutrition, migration rates, and place stress limited educational opportunities, on urban infrastructure as well as and restricted participation in the increase poverty (World Bank, UN, decision-making process. Its limit- FCDO 2021). Socially excluded and ed citizen engagement contributes marginalized groups face height- significantly to social exclusion. ened socioeconomic disparities and erosion of traditional livelihoods, thus 2.1.2 Climate change intensi- altering sociocultural structures and fies these vulnerabilities within risking the loss of cultural heritage. groups that are socially excluded Extreme weather events damage (e.g., women, children, youth, the infrastructure and reduce access to elderly, persons with disabilities, markets and essential services. and rural households dependent TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially on agriculture); it compounds Inclusive 2.1.3 Women in Tajikistan face Approach to existing socioeconomic disparities a spectrum of vulnerabilities Climate Change and exacerbates the competition influenced by social, economic, for resources. The agriculture sector 15 and environmental factors, sig- endures altered precipitation and nificantly affecting their quality temperature resulting in water scar- of life. Gender norms and roles in city, flooding, and poor crop yields, Tajikistan increasingly influence how individuals experience and respond pecially those managing households to climate change, worsening the on their own. The Khatlon Region, vulnerability of women to inequal- Autonomous Oblast of Gorno-Ba- ity. Women often bear the primary dakhshan (GBAO), and Rasht Valley responsibility for the household have experienced an outflow of water collection, food provision, men, leaving women as the primary and care duties, making them more income generators and care givers. susceptible to climate-induced water Climate change also increases the scarcity and agricultural disruptions risk of gender-based violence (GBV), that increase their workload and as environmental stressors and eco- limit opportunities for education, nomic strains accentuate household employment, and community par- tension and violence (Castañeda ticipation. Climate change disrupts Camey et al. 2020; Rezwana and Pain livelihoods in agriculture and the 2021; Oxfam 2023; Butt 2023; UNDP natural resource-dependent sec- 2016; and ICGB 2022). Women and tors where many women are em- girls may face an increased risk of ployed, thus reinforcing traditional violence due to competition over gender roles and limiting women’s dwindling resources such as water. economic independence. This is Natural disasters, becoming more especially obvious in the Khatlon frequent due to climate change, in- region, where agriculture is the tensify women’s vulnerability to GBV, primary livelihood. Climate-related particularly in temporary shelters displacement and migration also that lack security, as do the stress alters the family structure, placing and economic hardships on families additional pressure on women, es- (World Bank 2024b). TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 16 Figure 1: Climate Change Risks Are Likely to Affect the Vulnerability of Women to Specific Forms of Abuse SUGHD NOHIJAHOI TOBEI ÇUMHURI DUSHANBE GORNO-BADAKHSHAN KHATLON Economic Stress-Induced Vulnerability Increased Burden Vulnerability and Violence and Resource During Disasters and GBV Risk Migration Competition The GBAO region, charac- In the Khatlon region, In the Sughd region, reli- In urban settings like terized by mountainous where agriculture is a ance on remittances frim Dushhanbe, competition terrain, is susceptible to cli- primary livelihood, woman male labor migrants leads for resources exacerbated mate-indiced natural disas- play a significant role in to increased responsibil- by climate change, such as ters such as landslides and farming and water collec- ities for women, making water and energy shortag- floods. In the event of such tion patterns exacerbate them more vulnerable to es, can lead to encreased disasters , women and girls water scarcity, increasing economic shocks and gen- tensions within households may face heightened risks women’s labor burden der-based violence (GBV). and communities. Woman, of GBV, especialy if they are and potentially leading to Cklimate change impacts often responsible for displaced or if community household tensions and on local livelihoods, com- managing this resources structures are discupted. gender-based violence bined with solo household as the household leveln The isolation of many (GBV). The stress from management, highten might face blame and communities in GBAO can reduced agricultural output these vulnerabilities, with violence for shottage. exacerbate these vulner- can strain household rela- woman facing risks from Urban poverty, intensified abilities limiting acess to tions, potentially escalating non-family members or re- by climate change impacts support and services. into violence. TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially turning stressed migrants. on rural livelihoods driving Inclusive migrations to cities, can Approach to also contribute to crowded Climate Change living conditions where GBV risks are amplified. 17 2.1.4 Children and youth in Ta- and Raihonov 2022). In areas as jikistan face significant vulner- the Pamir Mountains and the Rasht abilities due to climate change, Valley, extreme weather events (e.g., compounded by inadequate floods, landslides) pose significant education, infrastructure, and risk, as the rugged terrain and social exclusion. Urban youth, de- poor infrastructure severely limit spite being generally aware of the mobility and escape routes during consequences of climate change a disaster; this leaves the disabled (e.g., rising temperatures and water individual particularly exposed. scarcity) lack the essential platforms These regions also often lack to enable them to influence the de- adequate healthcare facilities, and cision-making (World Bank 2024a). the scarcity of specialized services Rural youth face limited access to can intensify the health issues of quality education, healthcare, and disabled individuals. Furthermore, employment, as a result of poor in areas similar to that of the GBAO, infrastructure and geographic iso- isolation from major urban cen- lation. The educational system does tres compounds these challenges not adequately address climate (e.g., limited emergency response change, with most information only capabilities and reduced access to available through social media. Chil- essential resources such as food, What can dren in mountainous regions, such water, and medical supplies) during as the Pamir and the Rasht Valley, periods of environmental stress. we do to are highly susceptible to natural Socioeconomic instability due to adapt to disasters that disrupt their educa- tion and pose physical risk. Tajiki- the climate impacts will place extra strain on the capacity of families to climate stan’s youth deserve more localized support any disabled member(s), change? and inclusive climate education. To achieve this, climate topics should leading to potential neglect or inad- equate care. Educational opportuni- How can we be integrated into the educational ties are equally affected, as schools help? curricula and platforms that are similar to those of Climate Action in less accessible areas may lack the resources to accommodate children Youth participant at the CCDR Labs should be created. with disabilities (WHO 2019). Youth Dialogue, 15 years old 2.1.5 People with disabilities 2.1.6 Climate change places sig- in Tajikistan, especially those nificant pressure on the services residing in mountainous regions and infrastructure of Tajikistan’s susceptible to severe climate cities, intensifying existing social change impact, encounter challenges. Increased frequency profound vulnerabilities that and intensity of extreme weather TAJIKISTAN affect not only their safety but events, such as heavy rains and Taking a Socially also their health and access Inclusive floods, are straining urban drain- Approach to to services. There are currently age systems and often leading to Climate Change approximately 150,000 registered severe waterlogging and damage to people with disabilities in Tajikistan, 18 roads and buildings. For instance, including more than 28,000 chil- Dushanbe and Khujand frequently dren. Many face profound isolation, experience disruptions in transpor- marginalization, and violence (Moir tation, limiting access to schools, hospitals, and workplaces. Fur- awareness are crucial in order to thermore, rising temperatures and prepare rural populations to cope heatwaves are increasing demand with future inevitable hardships for energy, particularly for cooling, (Woods, Baker, and Adkison 2022). which stresses the already limited The Mid-Term Evaluation of the Agri- and ageing energy infrastructure. business Competitiveness Activity in Water supply systems also come Tajikistan (USAID 2022) highlights under pressure due to increased the vulnerability of communities demand during heatwaves and in the horticulture and dairy sec- potential contamination from flood- tors in the Khatlon region, where ing. All these impacts are felt most economic well-being is particularly acutely in low-income and informal susceptible to climate variability and settlements, where infrastructure is extreme weather events. With over weakest and municipal services are two-thirds of the population living extraordinarily limited. on less than US$2.15 a day, low-in- come households are less able to 2.1.7 Rural populations in Tajik- adapt to and recover from cli- istan, heavily reliant on agricul- mate-induced shocks. Their limited ture and natural resources, are financial resources constrain their particularly susceptible due to ability to invest in adaptive mea- their limited awareness of cli- sures or recover from any losses. mate change and the capacity to World Bank survey data also show adapt to the impacts. 72 percent that economically disadvantaged of Tajikistan’s total population is households, including those heavily rural, with agriculture accounting reliant on farming, are particular- for 60 percent of total employment, ly at risk, with limited capacity to despite only 4 percent of the land adapt to changing climatic con- considered arable. 88 percent of Ta- ditions (World Bank 2021). Small- jikistan’s farms are small-scale, and scale farmers and pastoralists, who family owned. The agriculture sec- depend directly on the environment tor’s dependence on climate-sensi- for their livelihoods, face severe tive water resources from glaciers impacts on income and food secu- and rivers makes these communi- rity due to changes in temperature ties highly susceptible to changes in and precipitation patterns and water availability. A survey under- increased frequency of extreme taken by the World Bank in 2021 weather events. (unpublished) highlights that rural Tajiks are less aware of the threats posed by climate change, even TAJIKISTAN though they are more likely to suf- Taking a Socially Inclusive fer their consequences. The coun- Approach to Climate Change try’s high vulnerability to drought and its anticipated rise in tempera- 19 ture could lead to increased natural disasters, affecting these communi- ties the most. Efforts to bridge the rural-urban divide in climate change 2.1.8 Certain subregions and com- ture and drinking water, thus increasing munities in Tajikistan are partic- the risk of food insecurity and impacting ularly susceptible to the effects of livelihoods in what are considered pre- climate change due to a combina- dominantly rural areas. In addition, the tion of geographic, environmental, melting of glaciers in the mountainous and socioeconomic factors. Subre- regions poses risk of glacial lake out- gions of Khatlon, Sughd, the GBAO, and burst floods, endangering communities Rasht Valley in the Districts of Repub- and infrastructure. Soil degradation and lican Subordination (DRS) are among desertification further reduce agricul- the most affected areas. These regions tural productivity, intensifying economic are suffering due to their mountain- vulnerability and potentially leading to ous terrain, which makes them highly migration pressures as people seek susceptible to climate-related impacts more stable living conditions. The risks such as floods, avalanches, landslides, are compounded by high levels of and droughts. Rising temperatures and poverty, limited availability of arable land, changing precipitation patterns threat- and lack of alternative livelihood oppor- en water resources, critical for agricul- tunities (Aguilera and Allen 2021). Table 1: Regional Impact on Key Groups: Women, Children, People with Disabilities, and the Elderly Face Cross-Cutting, Intersectional, and Compound Vulnerabilities Khatlon Region The Khatlon region, with its significant reliance on agriculture, particularly cotton Key districts include and wheat, is highly vulnerable to climate variability. Smallholder farmers, many Vose, Kulob, Vakhsh, and of whom are women, could face reduced crop yields due to irregular rainfall pat- A. Jomi1 terns and increased temperatures. Water scarcity can exacerbate these challeng- es, impacting their livelihoods and access to food. Autonomous Oblast In the mountainous Autonomous Oblast of Gorno-Badakhshan, pastoral com- of Gorno-Badakhshan munities depending on livestock for their livelihoods may face challenges due Region to changing pasture availability and water scarcity. These changes can affect Key districts include livestock health and productivity, thereby impacting the income and food security Murghab, Khorog, of these communities. Other challenges include increased vulnerability to colder Ishkashim, Rushon and temperatures, landslides, and limited access to resources for climate adapta- Darvoz2 tion.3 Rasht Valley The Rasht Valley, prone to natural disasters such as landslides and floods, which Key districts include are likely to become more frequent and intense due to climate change, could see Rasht, Tajikabad, and rural household access to markets and services disrupted, isolating them from Nurobad essential economic and social activities. Ferghana Valley Rural households, especially in mountainous areas, face socioeconomic chal- TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially lenges such as limited access to resources, inadequate infrastructure, economic Inclusive limitations, and social challenges, all of which are exacerbated by high disaster Approach to risk and limited financial reserves. Climate Change 20 Source: 1. World Bank (2022); UNDP( 2022); and IOM (n.d). 2. Daze (2016); World Bank (2021); and World Bank Tajikistan Climate Change Knowledge Portal. 3. World Bank (2017). 2.1.9 To reduce regional in- when combined with assessments equalities, adaptation policies of environmental sustainability and investments at the subna- (Figure 2).  It also reflects com- tional level should consider munities having reported higher targeting the Khatlon region levels of threat as a result of climate (including bordering districts) change in areas where landscape and DRS, given their high deg- restoration priorities are, in fact, in radation and low social sustain- place. The analysis also indicates ability. The World Bank has creat- that the DRS (including Dushanbe) ed a Social Sustainability Index to and Khatlon regions, together, have systematically capture national and performed the worst in terms of regional levels of inclusion, social not only degradation but also their cohesion, resilience, and process social sustainability responsibili- legitimacy (World Bank 2024c)1. ties. Plans to invest in landscape The index indicates that social restoration tend to be countered sustainability varies geographically by existing low social sustainability and intersects with climate change, issues in which case, both must be particularly with regard to land deg- addressed in parallel to ensure any radation, which is best addressed sustainable outcome. Figure 2: Combined Assessment of Social and Environmental Sustainability TAJIKISTAN Source: Developed by the World Bank Team using publicly available data. Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 1. The index provides a set of indicators (21 in total), with the most recent data originating from reputable sources: World Bank’s Listening to Tajikistan (https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/tajikistan/brief/listening2tajikistan); World Values Survey, 21 https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/wvs.jsp); Central Asia Barometer (https://ca-barometer.org/en); and The DHS Program Demographic and Health Surveys of the U.S. Agency for International Aid (https://dhsprogram.com/data). The World Bank community survey collects data from 20 districts in the regions of the GBAO (3), Khatlon (11), Sughd (2), and DRS (4). Household surveys are representative at the district level rather than at the provincial/regional. 2.2 Transition, Adaptation en in forestry policy issues at the Risks, and Vulnerabilities: A national and local levels are priori- Green Transition ties in terms of sustainable forestry. These initiatives not only mitigate 2.2.1Tajikistan’s green transi- climate change but also engage tion relies heavily on hydro- local communities and vulnerable power as its primary energy groups while expanding access to source, as well as diversification economic growth and employment of its energy mix with non-hy- opportunities. dro renewable energy. Tajikistan ranks eight in the world in terms of 2.2.3 The green energy transi- potential hydropower generation, tion in Tajikistan must address at approximately 90 percent with an pre-existing challenges such as estimated 527 terawatt-hours. Only energy poverty and lack of af- 4 percent of this has been exploit- fordability, especially for rural ed so far (IEA 2022). Tajikistan also and impoverished households. plans to expand non-hydro supply Energy poverty remains a signifi- sources of power generation by cant issue, with around one million harnessing its substantial solar and Tajiks lacking reliable electricity wind potential to at least 10% of the during the winter months (IEA total supply mix. 2022). The financial struggles of the power sector have hindered 2.2.2 Developing sustainable investments in upgrading the forestry and increasing soil obsolete transmission and distribu- carbon stocks are crucial for tion systems. While this often is at- Tajikistan to meet its NDC tributed to the sectors below-cost commitments. Livestock farming recovery tariffs, poor revenue is currently the largest source of collection, and lack of cost controls the country’s methane emission; (WB, 2024 ), affordability remains however, by 2030, the waste sector a challenge, particularly for poor is projected to surpass this (Malec, households. Households in Tajik- Babu, and Tohirzoda 2024). Pop- istan spend up to 19 percent of ulation growth will likely increase their income on energy—one of emissions from both these sec- the highest rates in Europe and tors. Sustainable agriculture and Central Asia (World Bank 2020). livestock management practices, Subsidy programs for electricity such as Climate-Smart Agricul- have been off target, with the ture, integrated pest management wealthier 60 percent of households investment in sustainable technol- benefiting disproportionally and TAJIKISTAN ogies, and pasture management consuming 3.5 times the amount Taking a Socially policies should be able to mitigate Inclusive of electricity per capita than the Approach to this rise in emissions (Akkermans poorest 20 percent (ESMAP 2020). Climate Change 2023). Ensuring forest biodiversity, Under the ongoing World Bank restoring and conserving forests, 22 financed Tajikistan Rural Electrifica- and involving civil society and wom- tion project, reliability of electricity supply improved for 14,000 people cultural norms and financial con- in GBAO through households con- straints. Furthermore, low-income nection to the rehabilitated trans- households in urban areas may mission (110/35kv lines) and distri- struggle with the upfront costs of bution networks (10/04kVlines) and energy-efficient appliances and with commissioning of stand-alone housing improvements, thus exac- mini-grids comprising of 13 small erbating socioeconomic inequality. hydropower plants and 30 Solar PV While cities like Dushanbe might load centres, one wind station as see a rise in green economy jobs in well as battery energy storage sys- renewable energy, waste manage- tems (BESS), the remaining 8,000 ment, and green construction, it is people residing in the remotest ar- essential that effective adaptation eas of GBAO will receive access to and transition strategies are made reliable electricity by end of 2025. inclusive, ensuring that financial, educational, and infrastructural 2.2.4 The lack of infrastructure support reaches these groups to in remote areas, such as the prevent the worsening of existing GBAO, further isolates these disparities​. Targeted programs communities from the benefits providing support to these groups of green technology and adap- will be able to turn these risks into tation programs (UNDP 2021). inclusive opportunities. Similarly, the Khatlon region, heavily reliant on agriculture, may see shifts 2.2.4 Green transition needs to in agricultural practices toward be supplemented with particular more sustainable but unfamiliar measures that will create oppor- methods. Rural women, often tunities for vulnerable groups. engaged in subsistence farming This includes strong social pro- and lacking formal land rights, may tection mechanisms; investments find it difficult to access new green to diversify economic activity and technologies or practices due to maintain the quality and availability TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 23 Figure 3: Groups and Specific Regions in Tajikistan that Are Vulnerable to a Green Transition Khujand SUGHD NOHIJAHOI TOBEI ÇUMHURI DUSHANBE Ourghonteppa GORNO-BADAKHSHAN KHATLON Khorugh Coal Mining Youth and Pastoral Rural Woman Communities Low-income Urban and Moutain The Khatlon region, heavily and Farmers Populations Communities reliant on agriculture, may In the Sughd region, In urban areas, low-in- The mountainous GBAO see shifts in agriculture coal-dependent commu- come population may region is highly vulnerable practices towards more nities mau face economic be vulnerable to energy to climate change impacts sustainable but infamiliar and social disruptions as transitions as Tajikistan like landslides and melting methods. Rural women, Tajikistan shifts to greener invests in hydropower and glaciers. Green economy often engaged in subsis- energy sources, necessitat- renewables, necessitating initiatives aimed at pre- tence farming and lacking ing a transition to alterna- affordable and reliable serving ecosystems migth formal land rights, may tive livelihoods. Additional- energy acess for heating restrict acess to traditional find it challenging to acess ly, water scarcity in sughd and cooking in slums and grazing lands and water new green technologies Province makes adopting informal settlements to sources. Pastoral communi- or practices die to cultural water saving agricultural prevent energy poverty. ties, including those with a norms and financial con- practices critical, Smallhol- Cities like Dushanbe might hogh proportion of woman straints. The introduction drs farmers, especially the see a rise in green econo- managing livest ock due of water-efficient irrigation elderly or uneducated, may my jobs in renewable en- to male outmigration, technologies, while bene- struggle with new water ergy, waste management, could face restricted acess ficial in the ling run, may management technologies and green construction. to essential resources, initially be less acesssible to TAJIKISTAN due to insufficient training However, without inclusive impacting their livelihoods female farmers who have Taking a Socially Inclusive and resources, risking training and education and foos security. less control over financial Approach to decreased productivity and programs, marginalized and natural resources. Climate Change increaded food insecurity. youth, especially young woman and those from 24 low income backgrounds, may not benefit from these opportunities, potentially increasing inequality and social tension. of social services; vocational train- trepreneurship among women and ing and skill development in green youth in the sustainable agriculture sectors to equip these groups and renewable energy sectors. In with the necessary expertise for addition, supporting community-led emerging green jobs; and making and participatory projects in envi- these opportunities accessible to ronmental conservation, sustain- those with a lower educational level. able agriculture, and renewable Providing options in microfinance, energy will foster local leadership business development, and market and entrepreneurship, particularly access support will encourage en- among women and youth. Table 2: Sector-Specific Opportunities for the Inclusion of Marginalized Groups in Transition Agriculture, Water, and Environment Nexus Sustainable Agriculture The shift toward sustainable and organic farming practices opens up opportunities and Organic Farming for smallholder farmers, including women, to engage in more environmentally friendly and potentially lucrative agricultural activities. Training programs on organic farming, permaculture, and agroforestry that do not require advanced education can empower these groups to adopt new practices, access niche markets, and increase their income. Community-Based Wa- Decentralized and community-led water management initiatives, such as rainwater ter Management harvesting and community irrigation systems, can offer roles for local communities, including women and youth, in managing and conserving water resources. These initiatives encourage community participation and entrepreneurship in water-saving technologies and services. Agro-ecotourism Developing agro-ecotourism initiatives can provide alternative income sources for rural communities, leveraging Tajikistan’s natural beauty and cultural heritage. Wom- en and youth can play key roles in these initiatives, offering local produce, traditional crafts, and cultural experiences to tourists. Energy System and Net-Zero Pathway Decentralized Renew- Deployment of small-scale renewable energy solutions, such as solar panels and mi- able Energy Solutions cro-hydropower systems, particularly in remote and off-grid areas, can create employ- ment and entrepreneurship opportunities for local communities, including women and youth. Training programs in the installation, maintenance, and management of these systems can be tailored to individuals with lower education levels. Energy Efficiency Ser- Initiatives to improve energy efficiency in homes and businesses, such as insulation, TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially vices energy-efficient appliances, and green building techniques, can create jobs in man- Inclusive ufacturing, installation, and advisory services. These opportunities can be accessible Approach to to a broad range of individuals (including those with lower formal education) with Climate Change targeted training programs. 25 Waste Management and Expanding waste management and recycling efforts offers potential for job creation Recycling and entrepreneurship in the collection, sorting, and processing of recyclable materials. Community-led recycling initiatives can empower local groups, including women and youth, to contribute to waste reduction and environmental conservation. 2.3 Migration and rural livelihoods. This leads to economic migrations as people 2.3.1 The link between economic seek more stable conditions and migration and climate change in opportunities elsewhere. Further- Tajikistan can be comprehended more, climate change can lead to through the slow onset of its im- what are referred to as migration pacts, such as alterations in wa- “hotspots,” where people leave ter availability and crop produc- areas that can no longer sustain tivity, which influence internal them and move to areas that migration patterns. For example, offer opportunity. Such areas may water scarcity and crop failure include Tajikistan’s urban centers directly affect agriculture, a critical or other regions less affected by sector for Tajikistan’s economy climate change​​. Figure 4: Projected Trends in Tajikistan’s In- and Out-Migration by 2030 (see Box 1 for interpretation) Source: Groundswell (2024). Box 1: Figure 4: Interpretation Spatial patterns of projected climate migration by 2030 suggest well differentiated clusters of climate in- and out-migration. Green and blue shades represent pro- jected hotspots of in-migration, mostly concentrated around Dushanbe, Kulob, and TAJIKISTAN Istaravshan, the latter of which lies on the border with Uzbekistan. Red and orange Taking a Socially Inclusive shades represent projected hotspots of out-migration, concentrated in Ferghana Val- Approach to ley and areas around Bokhtar. These climate migration trends will worsen by 2050. Climate Change Dense settlements (except in Istaravshan), seminatural and wildlands, and irrigat- 26 ed croplands in the center of Sughd will likely suffer intense out-migration. From around Bokhtar’s urban and peri-urban areas (surrounding rice-growing areas, irri- gated croplands, pastoral and rangelands) and extending toward rainfed croplands north-east and around Fayzabad District, migration will likely continue—as it will in the dense settlement areas of Istaravshan, Dushanbe, and Tursunzoda, and largely in the pastoral and rangeland areas between Tursunzoda and Fayzabad, which are closer to the border with Uzbekistan. 2.3.2 Climate-induced migra- migration itself can be particular- tion in Tajikistan, as in many ly perilous for them, as moving regions, tends to have differenti- to new areas are likely to expose ated impacts on various groups, them to unfamiliar environments including women, youth, and where they may have even less the disabled. The effects of the social or familial support, fewer impacts are dependent on the economic opportunities, and/or existing social, economic, and cul- inadequate access to services. In tural characteristics of the group, fact, these groups may have less whereby the intensity of hardship say in the decision-making pro- will vary accordingly. The act of cess regarding resettlement. Figure 5: Overview of Compound and Climate-Driven Migration Risks across Regional Tajikistan Urban Areas like Dushanbe Rasht Valley Compound Threats Climate-driven Migration Compound Threat Climate-driven Migration Heat islands, flash flooding, Seismic activities, landslides, and pressure on water and [U] floods, and avalanches. [U] energy infrastructure. Strain Khujand Increased precipitation from the influx of migrants. intensity and variability SUGHD NOHIJAHOI TOBEI ÇUMHURI DUSHANBE Ourghonteppa GORNO-BADAKHSHAN KHATLON Khorugh Khatlon Region Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) Compound Threats Climate-driven Migration Compound Threats Climate-driven Migration Water stress, increasing Harsh terrain, glacial melt, temperatures, reduced water [U] extreme weather events, [U] availability, declining agricultural landslides, flooding, TAJIKISTAN productivity, and increased remoteness, and limited Taking a Socially heatwaves. infrastructue Inclusive Approach to – Out migration to inside or outside of Tajikistan Climate Change [U] –Migration to urban centres in Tajikistan 27 2.3.3 Climate change is height- the adverse consequences of climate ening Tajikistan’s water scarci- change and prevent climate-in- ty, crop failures, and economic duced migration. To address the link shocks, driving significant groups between economic migration and among the socially excluded climate change requires an integrat- and marginalized populations ed approach that combines climate to migrate. Declining agricultural adaptation, sustainable development, productivity is leading to reduced and social protection measures, so incomes and significant economic that migration becomes more of a fragility among farmers and agricul- choice than a necessity. The rights tural workers, particularly in areas and well-being of migrants also must such as Khatlon and Sughd. Limited be protected. water resources can contribute to the emergence of social tensions regard- 2.3.5 Human mobility because of ing their use, which in some cases climate change, when observed as can affect the level of social cohesion. a social benefit, can be applied as Repeated agricultural setbacks are an adaptation strategy, enabling increasing food insecurity and deplet- people to migrate from high-risk ing household incomes, compelling areas to locations where they will families to migrate to urban centers have better opportunities and less or abroad in search of stability (Kha- risk to the impacts. Application of kimov et al. 2024). Economic shock, such a strategy will lead to improved such as reduced remittances from la- livelihoods and poverty reduction. In bor migrants in Russia and climate-in- new locations, migrants often diversi- duced disruptions in key sectors (e.g., fy their income sources which, in turn, hydropower), further drive migration strengthens household resilience to (International Alert 2015). The cumu- environmental and economic shocks. lative effects of these environmental Migrants also will be able to transfer and economic pressures, along with new skills and knowledge back to the increased frequency of natural di- their communities of origin, thus con- sasters (e.g., floods and landslides) in tributing to their local development vulnerable regions, such as the Rasht and climate adaptation strategies. Valley and the GBAO, underscore the These social benefits underscore the link between migration and climate potential of migration to support not change in Tajikistan (BTI 2024). only individual but also community resilience. 2.3.4 In addressing these chal- lenges, it is crucial for Tajikistan 2.3.6 The Government of Tajik- to integrate climate adaptation istan has partially addressed TAJIKISTAN measures into its broader devel- climate-induced migration in its Taking a Socially Inclusive opment and resilience-building national strategy documenta- Approach to Climate Change strategies, ensuring that interven- tion, framing it as a response to tions are inclusive and address the environmental degradation and 28 needs of the most deprived pop- natural hazards that necessitate ulations. International cooperation population relocation (IOM 2022). and support also play a vital role to The National Strategy for Adaptation build Tajikistan’s capacity to mitigate to Climate Change until 2030 (NSACC 2030) and disaster risk management programs often do not consider the frameworks include planned reloca- ramifications of climate change, which tions; however, they lack the compre- only opens the door to interventions hensive measures to link migration that are unsound (GoT 2019a). Better with climate adaptation. The gov- coordination, dedicated resources, ernment’s National Adaptation Plan and stakeholder awareness are recognizes climate change as a driver necessary in the approach to ensure of migration due to increased natural resiliency. An ongoing longitudinal disasters, identifying it as a priori- study by the International Office of ty area but lacking detailed policy Migration (also referred to as UN Mi- measures. The government’s National gration) across Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Development Strategy until 2030 and and Uzbekistan explores the impacts corresponding Medium-Term Devel- of climate hazards on migrant groups opment Program 2021–2025 fail to and effect on their remittances; it pro- link migration to environmental deg- vides significant data to better target TAJIKISTAN radation and climate change; each migrant groups in terms of adapta- Taking a Socially Inclusive is addressed separately and misses tion policies. Approach to specific mechanisms for effective Climate Change climate-induced migration manage- 29 ment (IOM 2022). Existing migration 2. Available in the Russian language via the website of the Food and Agriculture Organization with a summary, available at https://www.fao.org/faolex/results/details/en/c/LEX-FAOC190980/. 3. Ibid. 3. GOVERNMENT POLICY AND CAPACITY 3.1 Analysis of Social From documentation at the na- Inclusion in Climate tional level, there is an absence Change Policies of specific mechanisms in climate policies to enable achievement of 3.1.1 The Government of Tajik- this aim; likewise, there is neither istan has made several efforts indication of how the measures at integrating gender and social will be implemented nor whether dimensions into its national a budget will be allocated. These climate change strategy docu- shortcomings also are highlighted mentation, particularly within its in an assessment carried out by NSACC 2030, Medium-Term Devel- the Food and Agriculture Orga- opment Program 2021–2025, and nization, which found that there NDC Implementation Plan (Table are neither schemes to prioritize 3). While none of the documents women or men in the normative reviewed specifically defines a vul- documents nor any fiscal plans nerable group, women often have for renewable energy. This gap is been the only group considered in evident in various sectoral strat- terms of increasing access to and egies and action plans, such as participation within the community, the (i) Action Plan for the Imple- as well as boosting their awareness mentation of the Green Economy to climate change. Development Strategy; (ii) Live- stock Development Program; and 3.1.2 Despite an effort to include (iii) Forestry Development Strat- national targets to increase the egy—each of which fails to detail participation of women and TAJIKISTAN the roles of local government or Taking a Socially youth, a gap still remains between Inclusive any specific actions to meet social the intention of Tajikistan’s sub- Approach to inclusion targets. This represents Climate Change national governments (SG) to do and underscores a disconnect so and the mechanisms needed to 30 between the national plans and facilitate this. implementation. Table 3: Key Government Documents and Aspects of Inclusivity Mentioned Role of Local Government Inclusion Vulnerable Governments to Achieve Document Aspects Group(s) Inclusion Goals National Strategy Women, A section relates to issues of No mention of specific local gov- of Adaptation to farmers, youth climate change risk, impact, ernment roles in terms of achiev- Climate Change in and adaptation measures in ing goals for inclusion; however, Tajikistan for the terms of gender in recognition included is a statement that local period up to 2030 of the vulnerability of women governments must be involved to (NSACC 2030) employed in agriculture. achieve the strengthening of local governance mechanisms. Local government staff will be trained to integrate climate adaptation strate- gies into local development plans. National Women, rural Emphasis is placed on the No mention of specific local Development community need to address gender government roles in terms of Strategy for the equality and climate change, achieving goals for inclusion. Local period up to 2030 particularly in the context of governments are to partake in the rural areas. integration of climate resilience into local development planning and coordinate with national policymak- ing to ensure adaptation responses are localized. Medium-Term Women, youth Calls for engagement of Absence of specific local govern- Development women’s groups, youth, and ment role to carry out goals for Program of vulnerable groups as stake- inclusion. Plan includes capacity Tajikistan for the holders prior to implementing building and mainstreaming of period 2021–2025 Nationally Determined Con- integrated water resource manage- tributions, stating importance ment principles across all sectors at of adopting gender-sensitive the local level. measures to improve planning systems. Includes targets in relation to increasing wom- en’s participation as well as enumerates climate change actions that include gender mainstreaming components. Strategy for Women, Plan to strengthen environ- Absence of specific local government green economy children mental education and equity role to carry out goals for inclusion. development strongly emphasized in terms Includes, however, a broad mandate in Tajikistan for of inclusion of women and for local government to play a key TAJIKISTAN 2023–2037 children. Regulatory and legal role in implementation as well as Taking a Socially systems to be developed monitor and assess the strategy. Inclusive together with programs for Local budgets are expected to be Approach to Climate Change supply of drinking water, a financing source. Mentioned are sanitation, and hygiene, in the increase in emergency response 31 order to address the needs capacity and training on the green of women, girls, and other economy at the local level. Mention is vulnerable groups. made of insufficient local infrastruc- ture being a challenge on industry. 3.1.3 In spite of an indication the country’s National Strategy of that a gender-sensitive ap- Adaptation to Climate Change plan proach, in fact, has been taken (World Bank 2024). into account in the policymaking One of the main of national government, there is 3.1.5 The Government of Ta- yet room for improvement and jikistan must boost public problems that specificity. Characteristics of the awareness of the causes and CSOs face when potential vulnerabilities of women ramifications of climate change it comes to and related social barriers have so as to motivate a reaction to yet to be adequately specified. For climate change take steps at the level of the instance, despite recent progress, individual. The Fourth National adaptation and a law remains in place prohibiting Communication of Tajikistan (GoT resilience is women from engaging in as many 2021) confirms that public knowl- the low level of as 194 professions. Social norms edge remains low; in order for the and household burdens continue to ordinary person, the media, and awareness in prevent women from being able to especially the decision-makers to remote areas attend workshops and trainings on grasp the scientific evidence behind regarding climate risk reduction and manage- climate change, more efforts by ment, particularly within groups of problems government are essential. This has mixed gender (International Alert, been confirmed as a result of con- related to 2024). While children, the elder- sultations with various civil society climate change ly, and persons with disabilities organizations (CSO) in preparation are among the vulnerable, there for Tajikistan’s Country Climate and CSO representative is scant reference to them in the Development Report which, it adds, at CCDR CSO roundtable country’s policies. is especially true among vulnerable groups and in the remote rural ar- 3.1.4 Nevertheless, efforts by eas of Tajikistan. A 2021 World Bank the Government of Tajikistan to survey (unpublished) indicates that engage the public in the draft- while the majority of respondents ing of key climate change strate- had disclosed concerns of the ef- gies is, indeed, encouraging. Up- fects of climate change, they stated dating and strengthening Tajikistn’s that community adaptation efforts NDCs did involve consultation with nevertheless had proved ineffective, civil society and the Committee of making them powerless against Women’s Affairs and Family regard- any natural disaster. Communities ing the interrelationship of gender also viewed their local government and climate change. The NDC draft leaders as under-resourced to was made publicly available and enable them to adapt to climate open for feedback, following which change. Such findings underscore TAJIKISTAN multistakeholder meetings were the need to raise awareness as well Taking a Socially Inclusive held with not only business repre- as to ensure regular engagement of Approach to Climate Change sentatives and academia but also local government leaders with their with civil society. This was corrobo- communities. Through education, 32 rated by the World Bank at a work- communities will be able to learn shop it held for Tajikistan’s youth how, at the household level, one is in relation to their participatory able to mitigate the impacts and experience in the development of put in place particular measures to cope with ensuing stress. In cational training and focusing on a response to the above, the gov- green economy that is inclusive will ernment launched an emergency contribute to ensuring that women mobile app with safety information, are an integral part of Tajikistan’s tips, and real-time notifications—a transition to a sustainable and resil- promising step toward bringing to ient economy​​. attention ways in which to deal with climate-related emergencies. 3.2 Government Capacity at the National and 3.1.6 Tajikistan’s green transi- Subnational Levels tion initiatives, in collabora- 3.2.1 Efforts are underway tion with various development across various of Tajikistan’s partners, will provide women government ministries to bol- with economic opportunities. For ster climate adaptation initia- instance, the International Finance tives at the local level, with a Corporation, the private sector arm predominance on women. There of the World Bank, has invested in is effort to create green employ- Tajikistan’s first local currency green ment opportunities, particularly for bond to boost access to finance women, in parallel to strengthen- by micro- small- and medium-size ing local government capacities in enterprises for projects that are support of vulnerable groups. De- climate smart. Many of these spite these efforts, however, there businesses, which promote sustain- is a dearth of initiatives that should able economic growth, are led by directly target other groups at risk, women (IFC 2024). In addition, the such as children and the elderly. European Union—in collaboration This shows beyond doubt that a with Germany’s KfW—is financing broader inclusive stance is essen- construction of the Sebzor Hy- tial at the planning stage regarding dropower Plant, which will create climate adaptation. jobs and generate income for local communities, including women​​(EU 2022). These initiatives, coupled with the intention to improve vo- TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 33 5. Revised and updated NDCs of the Government of Tajikistan. Table 4: Examples of Multisectoral Climate Adaptation Initiatives in Effect at the Local Level Government Multisectoral Climate Adaptation Initiatives at the Local Level Entity Committee of • Implementation of gender-sensitive adaptation strategies with local governments. Women and Family • Provision of grants for women-led agricultural projects, training in sustainable farming Affairs techniques, and access to climate-resilient seeds and tools. Ministry of Labor, • Scholarship offers for young women in climate-related fields such as agriculture, Migration, and environmental science, and energy. Employment • Agriculture and land management training for relocated ecological migrants. • Integration of climate resilience measures into local development plans. • Provision of capacity-building programs for local officials and communities. • Revision of job classifications to expand women employment opportunities. Ministry of • Provision of trainings for farmers and deployment of innovative agricultural Agriculture technologies, such as anti-hail nets and drip irrigation systems, with local governments (at small scale). Ministry of • 2040 Strategy to target migrants and rural communities who suffer from inadequate Energy and Water electricity and water supply. Resources • Prioritization of female recruitment in the energy sector and support for educational initiatives that equip women with green skills. Committee • Expansion of green spaces, building code updates to withstand extreme weather of Emergency events, and emergency preparedness programs in urban areas. Situations and Civil • Provision of accessible facilities for persons with disabilities during disaster response Defense and promotion of gender-sensitive adaptation strategies. • Promotion of female entrepreneurship in the renewable energy sector. 3.2.2 Limited financial resourc- reduce people’s vulnerabilities and es, insufficient expertise, and to boost their adaptability. Initia- lack of data on the gender-spe- tives like the NDC Secretariat—es- cific impacts of climate change tablished in 2022 and supported remain barriers at the national by the United States Agency for level. Central to these is the lack of International Aid and the NDC capacity within the government in- Partnership—must take place to stitutions to analyze and interpret strengthen coordination among climate data in terms of gender government agencies and inter- sensitivity. To increase collabora- national partners. Furthermore, tion, the Committee of Women and the Strategic Climate Fund’s Pilot TAJIKISTAN Family Affairs advocates for there Program on Climate Resilience has Taking a Socially Inclusive to be appointed a gender focal been instrumental since 2010 in Approach to point within each ministry. The providing technical assistance to Climate Change institutional weaknesses that exist build the analytical and planning 34 at present impede implementa- capacities necessary for climate tion of the necessary measures to adaptation. Nevertheless, exper- 6. For more information, see NDC Partnership (Tajikistan) at https://ndcpartnership.org/country/tjk. tise, financing, and understanding 3.2.4 To be effective, national and of the socioeconomic impacts are sectoral climate initiatives must inadequate as is the mainstream- be complemented with approach- ing of disaster risk reduction into es that will mobilize communities policymaking. and their local governments. Investing in local awareness raising 3.2.3 Implementation of Tajiki- and calling for action are means to stan’s NDC commitments relies (i) ensure that top-down and tailored not only on boosting local gov- sectoral planning takes into account ernment awareness but also its the needs of the community; (ii) forge capacity to act; however, there local investment ownership, includ- are challenges to the responsibil- ing with regard to operations and ities they must carry out. Despite maintenance; (iii) develop approaches the crucial role that local govern- to effectively identify and support ments (i.e., jamoats and mahallas) those groups highly at risk, including play to mobilize their communities, women, youth, persons with disabili- they are significantly limited in terms ties, and minorities, as well as agricul- of authority, capacity, and funding, ture- and coal-dependent communi- all of which severely restrict the abili- ties, among others; and, likewise, (iv) ty to tackle the challenges of climate support communities in remote and change. As entities that account economically lagging regions. for the management of local land plots, water resources, and climate 3.2.5 At present, Tajikistan’s na- data, they depend considerably on tional government is centralized, the district hukumats, including for which considerably limits any funding (International Alert 2024). action by SGs in terms of climate Furthermore, local governments change. The Tajik administrative not only show a pervasive disregard system prioritizes top-down direc- for climate change but also lack the tives over horizontal. Regardless expertise required to address it, of being legislatively autonomous, particularly in rural areas. This knowl- local governments (e.g., jamoats edge gap and lack of resources is and mahallas) heavily depend on compounded by insufficient data the district hukumats and national and analytical skills, making it diffi- ministries for their, albeit limited, cult to carry out a cross-sectoral role funding, compounded by the fact (International Alert 2024). A World that there are also limited techni- Bank survey in 2021 (unpublished) cal resources. While regional and indicates that nearly half the number district hukumats may receive some of households would not rely on financial assistance from central gov- TAJIKISTAN their local jamoat leaders to be of ernment for climate change action, Taking a Socially Inclusive any help in the event of a disaster. it often is insufficient, which leads Approach to Climate Change This highlights an urgent need for to a reliance on external funding local governments to build their ca- and grants. Moreover, significant 35 pacities to meet climate adaptation discrepancy exists between the and mitigation goals. ever-increasing responsibilities of local governments, especially the ja- moats, and their need for financing. This not only causes inefficiency but 3.3 Remaining Gaps in Govern- also frustration, as well as promotes ment Plans and Policies competition for what few resources 3.3.1 Integration of disaster risk are available, further undermining reduction into sectoral policy- the ability to let alone focus on making remains a critical gap in climate change. As such, precedence government strategies relating in maintaining political stability and to climate change. The National seeking immediate socioeconomic Strategy on Disaster Risk Reduction expectations only place little account (2019–2030) (GoT 2019) acknowl- in achieving any long-term environ- edges a weakness in mainstreaming mental goals. This not only causes disaster risk reduction into sectoral inefficiency but also frustration, as policies and highlights the absence well as promotes competition for of adequate sectoral strategies for what few resources are available, disaster risk reduction. Efforts led further undermining the ability to by the Committee of Environmental let alone focus on climate change. Protection under the Government of As such, precedence in maintaining Tajikistan to enhance weather fore- political stability and seeking imme- casting and implement early warning diate socioeconomic expectations systems aim to address this gap; only place little account in achieving however, further strategies are yet any long-term environmental goals.  required to strengthen capabilities and community preparedness. 3.2.6 Local governments have yet to be assigned clear roles 3.3.2 Despite having recognized with regard to mitigation and the importance of supporting climate adaptation; they lack the vulnerable groups at the local capacity and financial resources level, there still remains a need for to take action and be innovative. effective and continuous support While local governments may fall mechanisms. The fact that there is under the direction of the Presi- limited funds originating nationally, dency, there is no mechanism to coupled with the inability of local enable a multisectoral approach government to raise funds inde- to horizontal or vertical planning pendently, vulnerable groups are coordination. The fact that local denied any hope of systematized governments are not involved in support. This gap underscores the plans relating to climate change at need to create the financial mech- the national level only hampers not anisms and capacities to ensure only the local scaling up of adaption sustained support. activities but also any replication TAJIKISTAN of successful ones. Local govern- Taking a Socially 3.3.3 Many local authorities do not Inclusive ments, in fact, are neither mandat- Approach to have access to current physical or ed by law to develop adaptation Climate Change social data, which interferes with plans nor do they have the neces- the formulation of any strategy 36 sary human resources. relating to climate change adap- tation. This relates in particular to data regarding land characteristics, hazard frequency calculations, flood at the local level even more difficult. mapping, and gender sensitivity. The To bridge the gap will require a gap can be attributed to the need strengthening of existing financial for research funding across various mechanisms and the prioritization sectors, with a view to increasing the of funding to ensure that efforts are data collection and analyses to inform equitable and inclusive in terms of decision-making and policymaking. building resilience. In particular, the agriculture sector suffers from a 3.3.4 National, regional, and local significant lack of finance to enable authorities are broadly in need of vulnerable smallholders, especially financing to create the necessary women-led farms, to accrue inputs measures for climate adaptation. of quality, such as resistant seeds, This not only affects implementation and to implement any adaptation of appropriate measures but also practice for resilience. Access to significantly challenges the needs finance should provide the ability to of vulnerable groups. Absence of tar- support the development of wom- geted funding and specific programs en’s saving cooperatives, comple- for vulnerable communities makes mented by essential technical and mainstreaming climate adaptation financial expertise. TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 37 4. COMMUNITY-BASED AND LOCALLY LED CLIMATE ACTION 4.1.1 Communities in Tajikistan system. These findings, indeed, are being impacted significant- underline the relevance of regular ly by climate change; as such, engagement by local government they are in urgent need of the with communities in such ways resources, support, local en- as to educate the latter in effec- gagement, and power to effec- tively taking mitigation action tively adapt. A World Bank survey and addressing the tensions that carried out in 2021 (unpublished), will arise as a result of the im- spanning 20 districts that are pacts. The success of adaptation mostly rural, points to the wide- methods will depend not only on spread effects of climate change, government intervention but also including temperature and precip- the sustained involvement of the itation patterns that have become community, guided by transparent irregular, desertification, and and participatory approaches that reduced agricultural productivity. will take into account the groups Nearly half the respondents noted that are at risk (UNFCCC n.d.). the recent natural disasters expe- rienced, all of which have affected 4.1.2 An urban-rural divide their economy, particularly with exists in terms of public climate regard to the poorest of house- change awareness as well as holds. While households recognize ability to access local resources. the need for adaptation, most The urban centers of Khujand, felt that their efforts led nowhere, Bokhtar, Kulob, and Khorog, for leading to a lack of confidence example, benefit from greater TAJIKISTAN in their ability to mitigate future access to external expertise and Taking a Socially Inclusive disasters. Only a small fraction resources, reflecting a higher level Approach to Climate Change considered that local resources of knowledge. In contrast, rural were sufficient to allow them to areas—home to a majority of the 38 cope, despite the serious inade- population—lag significantly, not quacy of the government support only in awareness but also where to find the information. The Cen- 4.1.4 Despite the potential of tral Asia Barometer Survey attests young Tajiks to be most impact- to this disparity, adding that urban ed by the effects of the climate residents are more alert to the crisis, there are no opportunities risks of the environment com- for them to influence policymak- pared to their rural counterparts ing. A roundtable of youth held in (Woods, Baker, and Adkison 2022). Dushanbe in April 2024 highlight- ed the fact that Tajik youth tend to 4.1.3 Women are significantly be knowledgeable about climate impeded from participating in change and recognize the govern- local decision-making, which ment’s efforts; however, they are perpetuates gender disparity in pursuit of further information, and hinders inclusive gover- particularly relating to mitigation, nance. At the local level, deci- adaptation, and the long-term sion-making is predominantly effects, and have called for stron- male dominated, sidelining the ger community engagement and needs of women and reflecting awareness-building. The Govern- entrenched patriarchal norms. ment of Tajikistan would benefit “I can not say Village infrastructure also margin- from collaborating with develop- alizes individuals with disabilities ment partners and youth-oriented that all people from involvement in the process. CSOs to boost awareness, capture have acess to or Women’s representation in the the needs of urban and rural find information structure of governance also is youth, and promote green jobs minimal, particularly at the ja- and social entrepreneurship. about climate moat level where they have little change in their opportunity of a leadership role 4.1.5 Tajikistan holds significant language. It is a (FAO 2024) and extends to Water potential to leverage the civil User Associations. As a result, problem”. society for sustained climate women have little access to water action, especially in under- resources and canal maintenance. served regions. While collabora- Youth representative at CCDR youth dialogue Furthermore, women in agricul- tion between civil society and the ture are predominantly unpaid government is crucial in terms of family workers who do manual multisectoral adaptation needs at labor while bearing the burden the community level, the country of household responsibilities, nevertheless requires a system- thus restricting any opportunity atic approach to engage with to attend trainings or partake in civil society in contrast to what is education which, ultimately denies often perceived as simply a formal them economic empowerment dialogue (World Bank 2024d). This TAJIKISTAN (FAO 2024). aligns with various international Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 39 7. Interviews with subnational authorities. 8. Interviews with subnational authorities. 9. World Bank, 2024, Youth Roundtable Tajikistan CCDR Mission. assessments of Tajikistan’s civic stands to significantly benefit from engagement performance and is engaging more in depth with civil reflected in its low-ranking score society and involving a diversity of in, for example, the World Bank’s voices in its move toward actions Voice and Accountability index that will be effective and shape and its Global Indicators of Reg- the climate agenda. ulatory Governance measures. Despite CSOs having called for 4.1.6 The findings above rein- the prioritization of vulnerable force the fact that climate mit- groups and strengthening of local igation and adaptation require resilience through government top-down policies that will be collaboration, what is instead effective as well as engagement evident is a continuing absence of at the grass roots level. Impacts mechanisms to promote partici- emanating from climate change pation and transparency. Too little in Tajikistan are multifaceted; as CSO engagement and dialogue such, national policymaking and will only worsen the situation and local action must be integrated. limit any hope of external funding Local governments and commu- and support (World Bank 2024d). nities must play a crucial role in While government recognizes their efforts, such as improving the role of civil society in the water management, controlling climate debate, particularly with erosion, and adopting climate-re- regard to its national strategies silient agricultural practices. While (e.g., FAO 2021; GoT 2019; and national policies are essential in GIZ 2019), the challenges never- the broader sense for climate theless persist, including a poor mitigation, it is those at the local understanding of policy processes level that are vital if the challenges among CSOs (GoT 2021) and the are to be surmounted. Community need for stakeholder coordination engagement will create a trajec- (World Bank 2024). This highlights tory toward climate solutions that a significant gap between gov- should be specific and effective ernment policy and the realities and essentially bridge the gap experienced by CSOs. Tajikistan between policy and practice. TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 40 5. RECOMMENDATIONS The previous sections of this report highlight some of the most concern- ing issues and challenges in efforts to respond to the impacts of climate change in Tajikistan affecting all groups in society, especially those who are most at risk, socially and economically. Below is a summary of key actions to assist in Tajikistan’s government efforts to slow the speed of climate change and adapt to its effects, all of which must be carried out in a more socially inclusive and gender equitable manner. Some of these recommendations are sector specific while others relate to the levels of government and civil society. They build upon existing activities as well as lead to new initiatives. 5.1 Agriculture agricultural ecotourism which will provide alternative income sourc- 5.1.1 Expand sustainable agri- es for rural communities. culture and agricultural tour- ism practices to increase food 5.2 Energy security and create green job opportunities for rural youth 5.2.1 Promote the equitable use and women. Through trainings of benefit-sharing mechanisms and available technology, women in the use of hydro and renew- and youth will be able to adopt able resources. Tajikistan already new farming techniques and has an established track record contribute to national climate of benefit sharing mechanisms mitigation efforts, particularly in for CASA-1000 Transmission Line TAJIKISTAN a sector responsible for signifi- and Rogun Hydropower Project. A Taking a Socially cant greenhouse gas emissions. benefit-sharing mechanism from Inclusive Approach to Moreover, investments in waste hydro projects enables the Govern- Climate Change management and recycling ini- ment to distribute a percentage of tiatives will spur job creation and the revenues that originate from 41 entrepreneurship. In terms of project investments to the most the country’s natural and cultural vulnerable communities. In the heritage, benefits will come from future, the criterion for distribution of funds can also include support- 5.3.2 Create more economic ing communities in districts most opportunities for women by in- impacted by climate change. When cluding them in the distributed combined with mobilization and renewables sector, which tends capacity building, these investments to be more gender balanced in will accelerate local climate change terms of its workforce. While the adaptation initiatives. energy sector has often been tradi- tionally male dominated, the distrib- 5.2.2 Implement programs for uted renewable sector conversely vulnerable communities to has a higher participation rate of benefit from the green energy women, exemplified by Sub-Saha- transition in a more equitable ran Africa (27 percent) and Kenya manner. This includes expanding (41 percent). Evidence points to the the use of distributed, small-scale off-grid solar photovoltaic sector solar plants to reach rural popu- which offers women many oppor- lations and to assist smallholder tunities in consulting and planning farmers to increase crop resilience. as well as in the productive use of Energy efficiency initiatives also energy technologies. empower communities by giving them access to energy and bol- 5.3.3 Enhance financial inclusion stering security and resilience programs that target vulnerable while reducing women’s household groups to spur climate smart eco- burdens and boosting productivi- nomic opportunities at the local ty. The energy transition provides level. Expanding access to finance for government the opportunity to the vulnerable groups through various review its means assessment meth- programs, in tandem with entrepre- odology to ensure that the subsidy neurial support, will boost not only scheme will adequately support their economic independence but low-income households.  also promote climate smart business development within communities. 5.3 Jobs and Business The Government should consider two Development initiatives: (i) earmarking financing to support establishment of women’s 5.3.1 Promote green jobs to im- savings groups and (ii) increasing prove the economic prospects of the number of affordable financial women, youth, climate migrants, products from the commercial and and rural communities. This national banks that are offered to rural should include specific programs to and vulnerable communities in rural improve access of vulnerable groups Tajikistan. This is important to bridge TAJIKISTAN to various reskilling programs as well the financing gap in the absence of Taking a Socially as offers of scholarships to wom- Inclusive commercial loans and investments Approach to en, youth, and other such groups. that may be too large for rural com- Climate Change Courses in climate-smart technology munities with insufficient collateral. and various other vocations are also 42 Tajikistan’s Ministry of Labor, Migration essential as are courses relating to and Employment, in partnership with access to finance and climate resil- its Committee of Environmental Pro- ient agricultural inputs. tection, can make this happen. 5.4 Social Protection execute their roles; (iv) reviewing and optimizing the hukumat and jamoat 5.4.1 Develop adaptive social budgets to enable them to carry protection measures to align di- out their climate responsibilities; (v) saster risk reduction with climate introducing key performance indica- adaptation efforts. These measures tors and incentives for jamoats and increase the resilience of vulnerable village/mahalla committees for them groups to climate shocks by investing to undertake local climate action. in their capacity to prepare for, cope with, and adapt to them through 5.5.2 Support local governments targeted social protection programs. and youth communities to con- Although this approach may be rel- tinue spearheading initiatives atively new, evidence suggests that to engage vulnerable groups increasing access to finance (e.g., in climate action, which will cash transfers, microfinance, com- result in immediate environ- munity savings and loan groups) and mental benefits and long-term livelihood support will strengthen educational and leadership the necessary adaptive capacity and development opportunities. The resilience in such as way as to ex- Governor of GBAO is leading efforts pand the asset base, foster livelihood to integrate disabled individuals diversification, and facilitate mobility into social programs (particularly in (Cornelius et al. 2018). activities taking place during Tajik- istan’s national holidays) as well as 5.5 Local Government include youth associations in such 5.5.1 Build the capability of local activities as tree planting and river- government to address climate bank maintenance. Such endeavors adaptation and mitigation so as to not only will strengthen the sus- enable it to help achieve Tajik- tainability of the environment but istan’s NDC commitments. This also will empower participants from should include (i) reviewing the roles practical learning and leadership of local government (e.g., raising experiences. Collaboration between awareness, mobilizing action, invest- the Youth Committee, regional ing, supporting early warning sys- administration, and national entities tems, managing water and pasture will ensure alignment with broader allocations, and resolving disputes, strategic goals, including integra- among others); (ii) aligning official tion of climate change topics into hukumat, jamoat, and mahalla func- education curricula to equip young tions with climate responsibilities; (iii) people for active participation in the building their capacity to effectively climate discussion. TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 43 5.6 Civic Engagement 5.6.1 Invest in national aware- achieved by (i) a social media survey ness and behavioral change of people’s willingness to make programs to foster community change and take responsibility and ownership of locally led climate (ii) establishing the areas in which action. These programs will bridge citizens are most likely to partici- the existing gap in the public’s pate (e.g., serve as a climate focal awareness of climate change; they point within a community). The will foment a community under- more informed and empowered the standing of climate action—a role communities, the more there will be in which they, themselves, can local actors and civic networks on play a part— and how to engage climate mitigation and adaptation. effectively. It is essential to create Key strategies include (i) promoting an understanding of how individ- more effective use of information uals can be motivated to become through innovation and accessible collective climate actors and remain ICT climate action platforms and (ii) so over time. Long-term citizen actively integrating local women, engagement at the local, region- youth, and vulnerable groups into al, and national levels can only be the decision-making process. 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TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 49 ANNEX GLOSSARY This glossary has been extracted from the publication, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056 pp., doi:10.1017/9781009325844. Adaptation: In human systems, the process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities. In natural systems, the process of adjustment to actual climate and its effects; human intervention may facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects. (Internal) Displacement (of humans): The involuntary movement, individually or collectively, of persons from their country or community, notably for reasons of armed conflict, civil unrest, or natural or human-made disasters (adapted from IOM 2011). Equality: A principle that ascribes equal worth to all human beings, including equal opportunities, rights and obligations, irrespective of origins. Inequality: Uneven opportunities and social positions, and processes of discrimination within a group or society, based on gender, class, ethnicity, age and (dis)ability, often produced by uneven development. Income inequality refers to gaps between the highest and lowest income earners within a country and between countries. Equity: The principle of being fair and impartial, and a basis for understanding how the impacts and responses to climate change, including costs and benefits, are distributed in and by society in more or less equal ways. Often aligned with ideas of equality, fairness and justice and applied with respect to equity in the responsibility for, and distribution of, climate impacts and policies across society, generations and gender, and in the sense of who participates and controls the processes of decision-making. Food security: A situation that exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. The four pillars of food security are availability, access, utilisation and stability. The nutritional dimension is integral to the concept of food security (FAO, 2018/ 2009). Availability: Physical availability of food. Food availability addresses the supply side of food security and is determined by the levels of food production, stocks and net trade. Access: Economic and/or physical access to food. Economic access is determined by disposable income, food prices and the provision of and access to social support. TAJIKISTAN Physical access is determined by the availability and quality of land and other Taking a Socially Inclusive infrastructure, property rights or the functioning of markets. Approach to Climate Change Utilisation: The way in which the body uses the various nutrients in food. Individuals achieve sufficient energy and nutrient intake through good care and 50 feeding practices, food preparation, diet diversity and intrahousehold distribution of food. Combined with biological utilisation of the food consumed, energy and nutrient intake determine the nutrition status of individuals. Stability: The stability of the other three dimensions over time. Even if individuals’ food intake is adequate today, they are still considered food-insecure if periodically they have inadequate access to food, risking deterioration of their nutrition status. Adverse weather conditions, political instability or economic factors (unemployment, rising food prices) may have an impact on individuals’ food security status. Governance: The structures, processes and actions through which private and public actors interact to address societal goals. This includes formal and informal institutions and the associated norms, rules, laws and procedures for deciding, managing, implementing and monitoring policies and measures at any geographic or political scale, from global to local. Impacts: The consequences of realised risks on natural and human systems, where risks result from the interactions of climate-related hazards (including extreme weather/ climate events), exposure, and vulnerability. Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health and well-being, ecosystems and species, economic, social and cultural assets, services (including ecosystem services) and infrastructure. Impacts may be referred to as consequences or outcomes, and can be adverse or beneficial. Human mobility: The permanent or semi-permanent move by a person for at least 1 year and involving crossing an administrative, but not necessarily a national, border. Human rights: Rights that are inherent to all human beings, universal, inalienable and indivisible, typically expressed and guaranteed by law. They include the right to life, economic, social and cultural rights, and the right to development and self- determination (UNHCR, 2018). Human security: A condition that is met when the vital core of human lives is protected, and when people have the freedom and capacity to live with dignity. In the context of climate change, the vital core of human lives includes the universal and culturally specific, material and non-material elements necessary for people to act on behalf of their interests and to live with dignity. Human system: Any system in which human organisations and institutions play a major role. Often, but not always, the term is synonymous with society or social system. Systems such as agricultural systems, urban systems, political systems, technological systems and economic systems are all human systems. Justice: Justice is concerned with, setting out the moral or legal principles of fairness and equity in the way people are treated, often based on the ethics and values of society. Climate justice: Justice that links development and human rights to achieve a human-centred approach to addressing climate change, safeguarding the rights of the most vulnerable people and sharing the burdens and benefits of climate change and its impacts equitably and fairly (MRFJC, 2018). TAJIKISTAN Procedural justice: Justice in the way outcomes are brought about, including who Taking a Socially participates and is heard in the processes of decision-making. Social justice Just or Inclusive Approach to fair relations within society that seek to address the distribution of wealth, access to Climate Change resources, opportunity and support according to principles of justice and fairness. 51 Livelihood: The resources used and the activities undertaken in order for people to live. Livelihoods are usually determined by the entitlements and assets to which people have access. Such assets can be categorised as human, social, natural, physical or financial. Migrant: Any person who is moving or has moved across an international border or within a state away from his/her habitual place of residence, regardless of (1) the person’s legal status, (2) whether the movement is voluntary or involuntary, (3) what the causes for the movement are and (4) what the length of the stay is (IOM, 2018). Migration (of humans): Movement of a person or a group of persons, either across an international border, or within a state. It is a population movement, encompassing any kind of movement of people, whatever its length, composition and causes; it includes migration of refugees, displaced persons, economic migrants and persons moving for other purposes, including family reunification (IOM, 2018). Mitigation (of climate change): A human intervention to reduce emissions or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. Mitigation measures In climate policy, mitigation measures are technologies, processes or practices that contribute to mitigation, for example renewable energy technologies, waste minimisation processes and public transport commuting practices. Planned relocation (of humans): A form of human mobility response in the face of sea level rise and related impacts. Planned relocation is typically initiated, supervised and implemented from national to local level and involves small communities and individual assets but may also involve large populations. Also termed resettlement, managed retreat or managed realignment. Poverty: A complex concept with several definitions stemming from different schools of thought. It can refer to material circumstances (such as need, pattern of deprivation or limited resources), economic conditions (such as standard of living, inequality or economic position) and/or social relationships (such as social class, dependency, exclusion, lack of basic security or lack of entitlement). Resilience: The capacity of interconnected social, economic and ecological systems to cope with a hazardous event, trend or disturbance, responding or reorganising in ways that maintain their essential function, identity and structure. Resilience is a positive attribute when it maintains capacity for adaptation, learning and/or transformation (Arctic Council, 2016). Risk: The potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of values and objectives associated with such systems. In the context of climate change, risks can arise from potential impacts of climate change as well as human responses to climate change. Relevant adverse consequences include those on lives, livelihoods, health and well-being, economic, social and cultural assets and investments, infrastructure, services (including ecosystem services), ecosystems and species. In the context of climate change impacts, risks result from dynamic interactions between climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of the affected human or ecological system to the hazards. Hazards, exposure and vulnerability may each be subject to uncertainty in terms of magnitude and likelihood of occurrence, and each may change over time and space due to socio-economic TAJIKISTAN changes and human decision-making. In the context of climate change responses, Taking a Socially risks result from the potential for such responses not achieving the intended Inclusive Approach to objective(s), or from potential trade-offs with, or negative side-effects on, other Climate Change societal objectives, such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Risks can arise for example from uncertainty in the implementation, effectiveness or outcomes of 52 climate policy, climate-related investments, technology development or adoption, and system transitions. Social protection: In the context of development aid and climate policy, social protection usually describes public and private initiatives that provide income or consumption transfers to the poor, protect the vulnerable against livelihood risks and enhance the social status and rights of the marginalised, with the overall objective of reducing the economic and social vulnerability of poor, vulnerable and marginalised groups (Devereux and Sabates-Wheeler, 2004). In other contexts, social protection may be used synonymously with social policy and can be described as all public and private initiatives that provide access to services, such as health, education or housing, or income and consumption transfers to people. Social protection policies protect the poor and vulnerable against livelihood risks and enhance the social status and rights of the marginalised, as well as prevent vulnerable people from falling into poverty. Social sustainability: When people feel part of the development process and believe they and their descendants will benefit from it – is fundamental to addressing today’s development challenges; and is the social counterpart to environmental and economic sustainability (World Bank). Sustainability: Involves ensuring the persistence of natural and human systems, implying the continuous functioning of ecosystems, the conservation of high biodiversity, the recycling of natural resources and, in the human sector, successful application of justice and equity. Transition: The process of changing from one state or condition to another in a given period of time. Transition can occur in individuals, firms, cities, regions and nations, and can be based on incremental or transformative change. Just transitions: A set of principles, processes and practices that aim to ensure that no people, workers, places, sectors, countries or regions are left behind in the transition from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy. It stresses the need for targeted and proactive measures from governments, agencies and authorities to ensure that any negative social, environmental or economic impacts of economy-wide transitions are minimised, while benefits are maximised for those disproportionally affected. Key principles of just transitions include: respect and dignity for vulnerable groups; fairness in energy access and use, social dialogue and democratic consultation with relevant stakeholders; the creation of decent jobs; social protection; and rights at work. Just transitions could include fairness in energy, land use and climate planning and decision-making processes; economic diversification based on low-carbon investments; realistic training/ retraining programs that lead to decent work; gender-specific policies that promote equitable outcomes; the fostering of international cooperation and coordinated multilateral actions; and the eradication of poverty. Lastly, just transitions may embody the redressing of past harms and perceived injustices (ILO 2015; UNFCCC 2016). Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements, including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt. TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change 53 TAJIKISTAN Taking a Socially Inclusive Approach to Climate Change