TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: +1-202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accu- racy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omis- sions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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CONTENTS Foreword.........................................................................................................................ix Acknowledgements.......................................................................................................xi Abbreviations and Acronyms......................................................................................xiii Executive Summary....................................................................................................... 1 O1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW........................................................................ 22 1.1  Urbanization and the Climate Challenge......................................................... 23 1.2  The Outlook...................................................................................................... 24 1.3  The Report: Analytics and Structure............................................................... 25 O2 CLIMATE IMPACTS AND URBAN ADAPTATION NEEDS........................................ 27 2.1 Urban Flooding Impacts.................................................................................. 28 2.2 Urban Heat Impacts......................................................................................... 35 2.3 Planning and Management Tools for Urban Resilience and Adaptation.......... 41 2.4 Urban Housing Adaptation .............................................................................. 49 2.5 Urban Transport Adaptation ........................................................................... 55 2.6 Building Cities Adapted to Climate and Disaster Risks....................................57 O3 OPPORTUNITIES FOR EFFICIENT, RESILIENT AND LOW-CARBON URBAN DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................61 3.1 Emissions Trajectory of Indian Cities and Mitigation Potential ..................... 62 3.2 Urban Planning and Efficient Cities ................................................................. 68 3.3 Green and Resilient Municipal Services...........................................................72 3.4 Green and Resilient Housing ...........................................................................77 3.5 Synergies with Urban Mobility and Air Quality Improvements ........................ 81 3.6 Efficient Resilient and Urban Development Pathways for Indian Cities.......... 81 O4 FINANCING CLIMATE RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA .................... 85 4.1 Urban Finance Needs for Climate Action in India .......................................... 86 4.2 The Role of the Public Sector in Urban Climate Solutions and Their Financing ............................................................................................... 88 4.3 The Role of the Private Sector in Urban Climate Solutions and Their Financing................................................................................................ 99 iii TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA O5 ACHIEVING CLIMATE RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA....................103 5.1 Strengthening Urban Resilience in India........................................................104 5.2 Invest in a 10-point City Climate Action Plan.................................................104 5.3 Invest in National and State Urban Resilience Programs Addressing Flooding and Extreme Heat ........................................................................... 124 5.4 Develop a Finance Strategy for Climate Resilient Urban Development ...... 128 5.5 Strengthen Collaboration and Cooperation of All Stakeholders ....................131 5.6 The Way Forward............................................................................................ 135 5.7 Conclusion ...................................................................................................... 137 REFERENCES AND ANNEXES..................................................................................139 References ..................................................................................................................140 Annex 1: Key Climate Change Challenges in Indian Cities........................................... 144 Annex 2: Unlocking Private Sector Finance ............................................................... 147 Annex 3: City Checklist: Suggested Steps and Priorities for 10 Point City Climate Action ............................................................................................. 148 Annex 4: Detailed National and State Level Actions, Opportunities and Challenges ....... 158 FIGURES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Figure ES.1 India has a huge opportunity to drive resilient urban development......... 3 Figure ES.2 Flooding and extreme heat are among the key climate risks facing Indian cities................................................................................................ 6 Figure ES.3 Priority adaptation and low-carbon solutions for Indian cities................ 12 Figure ES.4 Significant financing is needed to drive resilient urban development in India........................................................................................................... 17 Figure ES.5 Achieving Resilient and Prosperous Cities in India: Key Recommendations ................................................................................... 20 CHAPTER 01 Figure 1.1 India: Urban Population Projections........................................................ 23 Figure 1.2 Report Development Process and Timeline ............................................ 26 CHAPTER 02 Figure 2.1 Settlement exposure to flood hazard....................................................... 30 iv Contents Figure 2.2 Predominant Future Pluvial Flood Challenge Faced by Urban Areas in 2070 Under SSP2 and RCP4.5 .................................................................. 33 Figure 2.3 Settlement Area in Selected Cities Exposed to Median Projected Sea Level Rise.................................................................................................. 34 Figure 2.4 Built-Up Area in Selected Cities Exposed to Fluvial Risk 1985–2015....... 35 Figure 2.5 UHI Effect for Chennai, Lucknow, and Surat measured in degrees centigrade (night-time temperature disparity between urban locations and a rural reference location for the present-day period)..................... 36 Figure 2.6 Heat Exposure for 10 Largest Cities [billion person-hours per year at 30°C Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) or hotter]..............................37 Figure 2.7 Change in Key Heat Stress Metrics for Selected Cities ........................... 38 Figure 2.8 Heat and Mortality in Indian Cities........................................................... 38 Figure 2.9 Expected Economic Output Loss Due to Labor Productivity Effects Under Climate Scenarios.......................................................................... 39 Figure 2.10 Surat—Hours Per Year with Temperatures Exceeding Safe Operating Threshold for Railway Networksa ............................................................. 40 Figure 2.11 Priority Urban Pluvial Flood Strategies ................................................... 46 Figure 2.12 Net Benefits of Adaptation and Residual Risk..........................................47 Figure 2.13 GDP Gain Due to Different Heat Stress Adaptation Measures ................ 49 Figure 2.14 Benefit–Cost Ratios of Heat Stress Adaptation Measures in Indian Cities.............................................................................................. 49 Figure 2.15 Projected Number of Households in Five Select Cities........................... 52 Figure 2.16 Network Exposure and Mobility—Road Network Inundation and Associated Mobility Disruptions in India.................................................. 56 CHAPTER 03 Figure 3.1 Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Total of All Urban Centers (UCs), by City Population Size and Sector (2015)............................................................ 62 Figure 3.2 Modeled Per Capita Carbon Emissions by 2050 in Select Cities ............ 66 Figure 3.3 Modeled Capital Cost by 2050 for Select Cities; (a) Capital Cost Investment by 2050; (b) Capital Cost Disaggregated—Urban Expansion Costs by 2050; (c) Capital Cost Disaggregated—Mitigation and Adaptation Investments by 2050............................................................. 68 Figure 3.4 Urban Growth and Expansion Rates; (a) Urban growth of selected cities; (b) Urban expansion rate of selected cities............................................. 69 Figure 3.5 (a) Current and Projected Population Density for Five “Deep Dive” Cities (2020-2050); (b) Population Density and Building Height for Selected Cities Analyzed........................................................................................... 71 Figure 3.6 Low-carbon development potential in SWM Sector..................................73 v TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Figure 3.7 Emissions and Emission Reduction Potential Per Capita in Five Selected Cities (Urban Plan scenario kilograms of CO2 equivalent (kgCO2eq) per year per capita)..........................................................................................74 Figure 3.8 Emissions and Emission Reduction Potential Per Capita in Five Selected Cities (Best Case scenario in kgCO2eq per year per capita).....................74 Figure 3.9 Total Energy Use and Emissions in Five Cities by Income Group in 2022, 2050, and 2070..........................................................................................78 Figure 3.10 Reduction in Energy Consumption and Operational Emissions in 2022 from Historical Trends Scenario to Retrofitted (Retrofitted with Solar Panels) Scenario........................................................................................78 Figure 3.11 Reduction in Energy Consumption and Operational Emissions in 2070 .......79 Figure 3.12 Payback Periods for Investment in Rooftop Solar Panels ...................... 80 Figure 3.13 Investment Needs Per Decade in the Housing Sector (in the Retrofitted and Green Housing scenario).................................................................... 81 CHAPTER 04 Figure 4.1 Urban Planning, Disaster, and Climate: Key Policies and Plans in India. 90 CHAPTER 05 Figure 5.1 Chennai Flood Hazard and Vulnerability Map.......................................... 106 Figure 5.2 Example of Matrix of Recommendations................................................ 137 TABLES CHAPTER 02 Table 2.1 Urban Pluvial Flood Risk in India: Estimated Impacts by 2070................... 32 Table 2.2 City Heat Mitigation Actions— Intervention Packages and Impact Valuation Approach...................................................................................... 48 Table 2.3 Selected Building Regulations Addressing Climate Risks Adopted by Indian States/Cities...................................................................................... 53 CHAPTER 03 Table 3.1 Key Recommendations from the Urban Growth Scenario Analysis.............67 Table 3.2 Urban Planning Tools for Developing and Managing Efficient, Resilient, Low-carbon Cities.........................................................................................72 Table 3.3 Average Estimated Total Annual GHG Emissions for the SWM Sector in Five Cities (tCO2eq)........................................................................................74 Table 3.4 SWM Sector Roadmap...................................................................................75 vi Contents Table 3.5 Estimated Investment Needs by Scenario by 2050......................................76 CHAPTER 04 Table 4.1 Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Urban Infrastructure Investment Needs in Indian Cities by 2050 and 2070 .................................................... 88 Table 4.2 Typical Public, Private, and PPP Investments in Urban Areas....................100 CHAPTER 05 Table 5.1 National and State Level Recommendations ............................................ 125 Table 5.2 Recommended Next Steps.......................................................................... 135 BOXES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Box ES.1 Big Gains on Urban Resilience Are Within Reach.......................................... 18 CHAPTER 02 Box 2.1 Types of Floods............................................................................................. 29 Box 2.2 A Note on the Methodology Used to Assess Present and Future Pluvial Flood Risk for Urbanized Areas in India........................................................ 31 Box 2.3 Moving Toward Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management Solutions in Brazil............................................................................................................. 43 Box 2.4 Investing in National, State, and Local Strategies and Action Plans to Better Manage Urban Flooding..................................................................... 44 Box 2.5 Income and Exposure to Select Climate Risks............................................ 50 Box 2.6 Informal Settlements with High Vulnerability to Flood Risks in Chennai, Tamil Nadu..................................................................................................... 51 Box 2.7 Mainstreaming Affordable Cool Roofs for the Urban Poor in India.............. 54 Box 2.8 Priorities for Improving Urban Mobility Resilience in Chennai, Tamil Nadu.57 Box 2.9 Improving Urban Resilience and Adaptation Capacity in Indian Cities: A Six-point Agenda....................................................................................... 58 CHAPTER 03 Box 3.1 Analysis Using Urban Growth Scenarios for Five “Deep Dive” Cities........... 63 Box 3.2 Improving Low-Carbon Development in Indian Cities: A Four-point Agenda.......................................................................................................... 83 vii TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA CHAPTER 04 Box 4.1 Key National and State Initiatives on Urban Climate Actions....................... 91 Box 4.2 Climate Readiness in India’s Cities .............................................................. 95 Box 4.3 Urban Local Government Finance Sources for Climate Actions ................ 96 Box 4.4 National, State, and Urban Local Governments Can Take Steps to Improve Financing for Climate Action.........................................................................97 CHAPTER 05 Box 5.1 A 10-point City Climate Action Plan ............................................................ 105 Box 5.2 Chennai’s Climate Action Plan—Based on a Thorough Risk Assessment and Targets Both Adaptation and Low-carbon Growth.............................. 106 Box 5.3 Buenos Aires City Climate Action Plan ....................................................... 107 Box 5.4 Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System in Kolkata, India ................. 109 Box 5.5 Integrating Climate Risk and Transitioning to a Low Carbon Pathway through Innovative Urban Planning in Yokohama, Japan............................110 Box 5.6 Urban Flood Resilience in Beira, Mozambique.............................................112 Box 5.7 Managing Water Scarcity through Improved Storage in City of Cape Town, South Africa........................................................................................114 Box 5.8 Improved Flood Resilience through Flood Water Storage in Shizouka City, Japan....................................................................................................115 Box 5.9 Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan ......................................................................116 Box 5.10 An Inclusive Warning and Evacuation System in New Orleans, USA........... 117 Box 5.11 Maximizing Value from a Flood-Prone Area: The Msimbazi Basin Development Project in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.......................................118 Box 5.12 The Green and Compact City of Singapore.................................................120 Box 5.13 City of Monterrey, Mexico—Municipal Waste to Energy and GHG Emissions Reduction Project.........................................................................................121 Box 5.14 Energy-efficient, Affordable Housing in Buenos Aires............................... 123 Box 5.15 Kenya’s Fiscal Transfers to Support Local Climate Action......................... 129 Box 5.16 Climate Resilient and Green Capital Investment Planning in Ahmedabad, Gujarat......................................................................................................... 130 Box 5.17 Innovative Finance Mechanisms for Resilient Urban Infrastructure and Development in Tokyo..................................................................................131 Box 5.18 Role of Key Stakeholders in Advancing Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Urban Growth.......................................................................... 133 viii FOREWORD C limate change impacts every facet of human life and poses a significant threat to economic development potential. With the projected increase in urban pop- ulations across India, there is an urgent need for cities to invest in building cli- mate resilience and adopting a green, climate-smart development path. Indian cities hold immense potential as drivers of economic and social growth—creating jobs and generating wealth through economies of scale. In the past decade, the Government of India has made substantial progress in advancing the sustainability and resilience agenda. Key measures have been taken Auguste Tano Kouamé to improve urban environments, promote clean cities, and ensure the provision of cli- Country Director, India mate-smart urban services while maintaining efficiency and equity in delivering new The World Bank Group urban infrastructure. Timely actions in Indian cities not only enhance the safety and climate resilience of citizens but also support the robust urban growth necessary to fuel India’s economic development. Given that much of the expected urban growth is yet to unfold, India has a crucial window of opportunity to implement strategies that can shape urbanization and foster climate-resilient, inclusive growth. The World Bank Group is one of the largest multilateral providers of climate finance, supporting high-risk nations in addressing climate challenges. It is committed to help- ing India build green, resilient, and inclusive cities. This report aims to assist Indian cities in scaling up successful climate adaptation and mitigation actions, fostering innovation, and sustaining effective climate resilience interventions. These efforts will ensure that urban growth remains climate-resilient, prosperous, and inclusive. Furthermore, the report highlights best practices from Indian cities, along with global examples, to guide the adoption of relevant adaptation and mitigation measures, advancing climate resilience worldwide. ix TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA FOREWORD I ndia is undergoing a significant demographic shift, with urbanization advancing at unprecedented pace. The scale of this transition is evident in the numbers: in 1951, just 17% of the population lived in urban areas. By 2021, this had increased to around 35%, and it is expected to reach 40% by 2030. This rapid urban growth presents an important opportunity to shape the trajectory of cities in ways that support economic development, improve living conditions, and prioritize sustainability and resilience, ensuring a balanced and inclusive approach to urban expansion. Rahul Kapoor This report makes the case for increased and urgent investment in climate smart and Joint Secretary & Mission Director resilient cities in India and provides recommendations for scaling up successful cli- Smart Cities Mission & IC mate actions and replicating contextual interventions. Indian cities, face exponen- tially growing climate and disaster impacts such as floods, storm surges, and heat waves, which are projected to dramatically increase. At the same time, there is a huge potential for low carbon growth that will improve overall urban development and growth in an inclusive manner. Our work at the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, Government of India focuses on a sustainable, people-centric, and climate-resilient approach, driven by innova- tion, digital governance and partnership. Along with this, it is important to learn from the successful practices worldwide for adopting relevant adaptation and mitigation measures that can be scaled up to the significant urban system consisting of over 4,400 cities and towns. The Climate Centre for Cities within the National Institute of Urban Affairs, the World Bank Group, and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery have partnered for this report, developing much-needed, detailed analytics and best practices for building climate resilient cities in India. x ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS T he report was prepared by a core World Bank team led by Asmita Tiwari and Natsuko Kikutake, and consisting of Nicholas Jones, Thierry Martin, Qingyun Shen, Yan Zhang, and Raghu Kesvan. The report was prepared under the overall guidance of Abedalrazq Khalil and Auguste Kouame, together with Ming Zhang, Pankaj Gupta, Abhas Jha, Meskerem Brhane, Stephane Hallegatte, Arnab Bandyopadhyay and Nataliya Kulichenko. The report was prepared under the leadership and support of the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affrairs (MoHUA), and the team is thankful to the MoHUA, National Institute for Urban Affairs (NIUA) and CITIIS staff as well as mayors and municipal staff of Chennai, Indore, New Delhi, Surat, and Thiruvananthapuram for their wonderful coop- eration and support. Special thanks to Mr. Katikithala Srinivas, Secretary, MOHUA; Ms. Roopa Mishra, Joint Secretary, MOHUA; Mr. Rahul Kapoor and Mr. Kunal Kapoor (past Joint Secretary MOHUA); and Mr. Vikash Chandra, consultant to the MoHUA. The team is grateful to Ms. Manisha Sinha, Additional Secretary, the Department of Economic Affairs (DEA) in the Ministry of Finance; Ms. Chandni Raina, Economic Advisor, Climate Change Finance Unit (CCFU), Ministry of Finance; and DEA and CCFU staff for useful review and feedback on the report. Key technical contributions came from: Jasper Verschuur (urban pluvial flood assess- ment); Carlos Tucci (urban flood strategy for India); Gopalkrishna Bhatt, Deepak Singh, Anup Karanth, and Sheena Arora (urban flooding challenges and resilience options); Jun Rentschler and Paolo Avner (urban expansion and flood risk analysis, urban roads exposure to flooding); Ross Eisenberg and Rui Su (city risk assessments); VITO consul- tants and Dileep Mavalankar (urban heating analytics); Chandan Deuskar (Indian city GHG emissions trend analysis); CAPSUS consultants (urban climate emissions deep dive); Abdu Chaudhary, Minal Pathak, Anukriti Pathak, Dao Harrison, Atika Almira and Autif Mohammed Sayyed (housing analytics); Eric Sukumaran (solid waste manage- ment analytics); Ravikant Joshi (climate finance assessment) under the overall guid- ance and support from Roland White, Sohaib Athar, Ramanujam S.R. and Harsh Goyal; Chandan Deuskar and Sally Murray (critical research on urban climate finance assess- ment); Tom Kerr together with support from Inetellicap (private sector assessment); and Ammara Shariq (critical research). xi TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA The team was fortunate to receive excellent advice, guidance and support from the following peer reviewers: Stephane Hallegatte, Balakrishna Menon Parameswaran, Henrike Brecht, Joanna Masic, Marc Forni, Mark Roberts, Marion Cros, Mehul Jain, Nancy Lozano Gracia and Augustin Maria. The team also benefitted from discussions and inputs from Gerald Ollivier, Laurent Gonnet, Xiaodong Wang, Ammara Shariq, Emilia Skrok, Neeraj Gupta, Mohit Ganeriwala, Santhakumar Sundaram, and Paul Procee. Stakeholder consultations were coordinated by Raghu Kesavan, Poonam Khanijo, and Abhijit Ray with support from Sheena Arora and Binny Varma. Overall administrative support was provided by Roderick Babijes, Binny Varma, Smitha Thomas, Neetu Sharda and Lakshmi Narayanan. Maxmilian Fischbach and Christopher Ward supported report writing and editing. Ultradesign consultants supported report design. The report was made possible due to financial and technical support from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the City Resilience Program (CRP). The team is thankful to Niels Holm-Nielson, Elif Ayhan, Erika Vargas and Xiaofeng Li. xii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AC Air Conditioning AHR Apartment in High-Rise buildings (10 floors) AI Artificial Intelligence AMC Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation AMR Apartment in Mid-Rise buildings (5 floors) AMRUT Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation CAP Climate Action Plan CCDR Climate Change Development Report CCFU Climate Change Finance Unit CeDEL Centro de Desarrollo Emprendedor y Laboral CIP Capital Investment Plan CITIIS City Investments to Innovate, Integrate and Sustain CMDA Chennai Metropolitan Development Authority CPHEEO Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organization CO2 Carbon dioxide C-Cube Climate Centre for Cities COP 26 26th Conference of Parties CURB Climate Action for Urban Sustainability DCR Development Control Regulations DEA Department of Economic Affairs DLR German Aerospace Center ECBC Energy Conservation Building Co EDGE Excellence in Design for Greater Efficiencies EPR Extended Producer Responsibility EVs/FCVs Electrical vehicles/fuel cell vehicles FAME Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles FAR Floor Area Ratio FFEWS Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System FLLoCA Financing Locally-Led Climate Action FSI Floor Space Index FYs Fiscal Years GDP Gross Domestic Product GCF Green Climate Fund GEF Global Environment Facility GCOM Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery xiii TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA GHG Green House Gas GoTN Government of Tamil Nadu GoI Government of India HAP Household air pollution HAPs Heat Action Plans HIG High-Income Group HPEC High Powered Expert Committee HVAC Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning ICAP India Cooling Action Plan (2019) ICT Information and Communication Technology IFC International Finance Corporation IGP-HF Indo Gangetic Plains and Himalayan Foothills region INR Indian Rupee IMD India Meteorological Department IoT Internet of Things IPS Intended Policy Scenario ISO International Organization for Standardization JNNURM Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission JRC-HSL JRC Human Settlement Layer KMC Kolkata Municipal Corporation LCCM Leadership in Climate Change Management Program LED Light Emitting Diode LVC Land Value Capture LIG Low Income Group MC Municipal Corporation MHT Mahila Housing Trust MIG Middle-Income Group MoEFCC Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change MoF Ministry of Finance MoA Ministry of Home Affairs MoHFW Ministry of Health and Family Welfare MoHUA Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs MoWCD Ministry of Women and Child Development MtCO2eq Million tons of CO2 equivalent NAPCC National Action Plan on Climate Change 2008 NbS Nature-based Solutions NDC Nationally Determined Contributions NDMA National Disaster Management Authority NDMP National Disaster Management Plan NGIM National Mission for Green India NGO Non Governmental organizations NMEEE National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency xiv ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS NMSA National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture NMSH National Mission on Sustainable Habitat 2021-2030 NRW Non Revenue Water NTFPs Non- Timber Forest Products O&M Operation and Maintenance OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OSR Own Source Revenue PACE Property-Assessed Clean Energy PM SHRI PM ScHools for Rising India PPP Public-private partnership RDF Refuse Derived Fuel RE Renewable Energy RZNS Radical Net Zero Scenario SAPCC State Action Plans for Climate Change SBM Swachh Bharat Mission SCM Smart Cities Mission SDMA State Disaster Management Authority SLB Service Level Benchmarks SMC Surat Municipal Corporation SSP Shared Socioeconomic Pathways STP Sewage Treatment Plant SUDS Sustainable Urban Drainage System SWM Sustainable Waste Management TA Technical Assistance TCPO Town and Country Planning Organization TIF Tax Incremental Financing TNUHDB Tamil Nadu Urban Habitat Development Board TOD Transit Oriented development UC Urban Center UDD Urban Development Department ULBs Urban Local Bodies UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UHI Urban Heat Island UrbClim Urban Climate model URDPFI Urban and Regional Development Plan Formulation and Implementation UN United Nations WB World Bank WHO World Health Organization WRI World Resources Institute WSF-Evo World Settlement Footprint Evolution WTP Water Treatment Plant ZEB/ZEH Zero Emission Buildings/Housing xv TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA New Delhi. © Natsuko Kikutake. xvi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report makes the case for increased and urgent investment in climate resil- ient cities in India. With a doubling of the urban population expected by 2050, from 480 million in 2020 to 951 million, more than half of urban growth, in terms of new infrastructure, buildings and urban services, is still to come. This gives Indian cities a huge opportunity to plan for resilient urban development and avoid large future damages and losses from climate and disaster impacts. Given that the building and infrastructure retrofitting is very costly, there must be an immediate focus not only on better preparing cities for climate impacts, but also on shaping urban growth in a climate-resilient manner, necessary for improving quality of life and achieving vibrant economic growth. Timely interventions will help India’s cities continue to flourish as economic hubs, contributing massively to the country’s economic and social development. Already these cities are powerhouses of innovation, helping the country achieve its current rank of third among the world’s start-up ecosystems. Through targeted investment, cities can improve the provision of resilient infrastructure and efficient urban ser- vices, attract new businesses and jobs, develop as educational centers, drive innova- tion and thereby provide a better quality of urban life. Climate change is affecting rainfall patterns and intensity, increasing heat stress, and contributing to flooding. Without timely interventions, Indian cities will face an increase in related effects in terms of flooding, water scarcity and extreme heat. It is projected that urban pluvial or stormwater flooding-related losses, which currently cost between 0.5 and 2.5 percent of gross domestic product annually, will double under a global high-emission scenario. Urban Heat Island effect compound the impact of increasingly frequent and severe heat waves. If nothing changes, it is projected that heat-related deaths in Indian cities will double by 2050. Indian cities will be unable to reach their full potential if they stay on their current development trajectory. They are highly vulnerable to climate impacts because of the heavy concentration of people and assets, and they have limited capacity to manage these impacts. Urban planning and management systems are unable to keep pace 1 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA with rapid urbanization, growing climate impacts, and rising demand for urban devel- opment and services. Cities also face higher impacts, compared to rural areas, from climate impacts and disaster shocks as they are highly interconnected systems; when key infrastructure assets break down, it can cause a chain reaction and cities can become paralyzed or experience cascading infrastructure failure. For example, flood- ing can cause road closure and disrupt traffic flow, affect electricity lines, and lead to damage and economic losses. Climate change effects are likely to prove ever more challenging but timely actions can help avert large potential impacts. Given rapid urbanization, time is limited to undertake the necessary planning and to scale up investment in resilient urban devel- opment, which is essential not only to make cities more efficient and livable, but also to reduce future climate and disaster impacts. Better managed and resilient urban development has the potential to further improve access to urban amenities such as parks and recreational areas. This report is based on analytical work conducted between September 2022 and May 2025 and is supported by the World Bank Group and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery including its City Resilience Program. Bangalore, Karnataka, the center of India's high-tech industry. © Ashwin PK, Rahul Vellithodi. 2 FIGURE ES.1 India has a huge opportunity to drive resilient urban development  URBAN POPULATION IS GOING TO DOUBLE MASSIVE NEW INFRASTRUCTURE WILL BE NEEDED TO HOUSE NEW URBAN POPULATION Urban population projected to almost double to 951 million by 2050, and to increase to 1.1 billion by 2070. Between 2022 and 2070, more than 144 million urban 1OOM 1.1B dwelling units will be needed in India, more than 2020 480m doubling the existing housing stock. 2050 951m 2070 1.1b 1OOM 1.1B 150m 100m 50m The number of 50m Indians residing in urban areas 2022 2032 2042 2052 2062 2070 increased sixfold over the last 60 years. Indian cities are projected to produce 285 million tons of solid waste by 2035 and 415 million tons by 1964 2024 2050 with great potential to modernize SWM system. 2020 In 2020, cities hosted over one-third of the national 55M population – around 480 million people. 2035 50M 285M 2050 1OOM 1.4B 50M 415M CITIES WILL PLAY EVEN BIGGER ROLE IN DRIVING The total estimated investment ECONOMIC GROWTH AND JOBS needs for new resilient and green urban infrastructure and services are: $10.9 trillion New employment to be created in India by 2030 is expected to be in cities. 70% $2.4 trillion BY 2050 BY 2070 Note: See Chapter 1, Section 1.1; Chapter 2, Section 2.3, 2.4 and 2.5, and Chapter 4, Section 4.1 for more details. TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA . 1. THE GREATEST CLIMATE RISKS TO INDIA’S CITIES: FLOODING AND EXTREME HEAT Flood Risk is Growing Rapidly in Indian Cities Urban expansion has altered the flood risk profile for many locations, and more than two-thirds of the urban population is at risk. India has many cities along the coast and in the flood plains of major rivers. As urbanization increases impermeability, areas with previously low flood risk are experiencing flooding. For example, cities in the upper parts of watersheds, such as Bangalore, Hyderabad, and Indore. Pluvial flooding risk is growing more rapidly. Climate change and urbanization patterns are the main drivers of stormwater related or pluvial flooding risks, with a forecasted increase in risk of 3.6 to 7 times by 2070.The increasingly uncertain and intense rainfall associated with climate change and more-erratic monsoons together with increases in areas of impervious surfaces associated with urban expansion is creating frequent flooding, resulting in damage and service disruptions. Informal set- tlements are most exposed to pluvial flooding as they are often in low lying areas. » Between 1985 and 2015, built-up or settlement area grew by 82 percent in flood safe areas and 102 percent in high flood risk areas. » The urban population exposed to a 1-in-100-year flood of 50 centimeter could increase from 11.1 million in 2023 to as high as 46.4 million by 2070. » It is estimated that losses from pluvial flooding are $4 billion a year, a figure that has more than doubled in the past two decades. » Under continuing urbanization and climate impacts and without any remedial actions, annual losses from pluvial flooding are expected to be $5 billion by 2030, and between $14 to $30 billion by 2070. Note: See Chapter 2, Section 2.1 and Table 2.1 for details. Storm surges and rising sea levels will continue to threaten many low-lying urban areas close to India’s coasts. Storm surges and tropical cyclone events can cause an exceptional increase in sea level and trigger flooding along the coast. It is also pro- jected that sea level rise due to climate change will affect coastal cities. The risk of swollen rivers overflowing their banks threatens many urban settle- ments that have expanded into low-lying areas. The most exposed cities and states are those that the major river system crosses (notably the Ganga-Brahmaputra). Riverine flooding impacts an average of 30 million people annually, especially in the regions surrounding Mumbai and Kolkata. Some cities are considerably more exposed to flooding; Surat, for example, faces a combination of riverine, pluvial, and coastal flooding. 4 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY » Of India’s 7,500-kilometer coastline, 5,700 kilometers is exposed to cyclones and flooding. » 40 percent of India’s population lives within 100 kilometers of the coast, mostly in Damage due to dense urban areas. riverine flooding in » If no further action is taken, the annual cost of coastal flood damage in urban areas is likely to increase from $2.4 billion in 2010 to $21 billion in 2030 to $75 billion by 2050. Indian cities could » Damage from riverine flooding in Indian cities could cost as much as $770 billion each cost as much as year by 2050. $770 billion each Note: See Chapter 2, Section 2.1 for details. year by 2050. Urban Heat Impacts are Increasing Rising temperatures are increasing heat stress for urban populations and infra- structure. It is projected that temperatures will increase across India throughout the 21st century, with heat waves becoming longer, more frequent, and more intense. In major Indian cities, nighttime temperatures exceed those of surrounding rural areas by 3°C to 4°C year-round primarily because of concrete structures, roads, and other impermeable infrastructure in cities. These items absorb and re-emit solar energy at night through a phenomenon called the urban heat island effect. Hot days and nights cause illness, income loss, and death for vulnerable urban populations. Global projections forecast a significant intensification in heat stress, with up to 50 percent more hot days and nights by 2050. Nocturnal temperatures are likely to rarely fall below 25°C in some densely built neighborhoods of cities such as Chennai, Lucknow, and Surat. Low-income neighborhoods are most at risk, typically experiencing higher day- and nighttime temperatures than wealthier neighborhoods because of a greater prevalence of heat-trapping materials and less shade, wind, and vegetation. Residents of these neighborhoods are least able to cope due to hotter homes, heat-exposed occupations, and less access to water and mechanical cooling. These hot conditions affect working conditions and create risks of cascading infrastructure failure. Hot conditions will make work in heat-exposed sectors dan- gerous for more of the year, with the annual number of working hours that are too hot to work safely in physically strenuous occupations (e.g., construction, street vend- ing) projected to increase. The impact of heat on critical infrastructure and networks may cause cascading failures that affect multiple sectors and become increasingly important as rising temperatures make air conditioning crucial to avoid heat-related illness and death among vulnerable groups. 5 FIGURE ES.2 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Flooding and extreme heat are among the key climate risks facing Indian cities City Expansion in More Exposure to Disaster Unsafe Areas Impacts Between 1985 and 2015, settlement Heat related deaths are expected extent in high flood-risk areas grew to potentially double by 2050. by 102 percent Cascading Infrastructure Urban Heat Islands Failure 1/5th of working hours in Some cities can lose >50% of major Indian cities could be transport systems with only 10-20% under high heat stress of roads inundated. conditions by 2050. Urban Floods Green Cover Loss Pluvial flood losses due to high 14 out of 24 cities assessed for this paving and reduced water report found less than 0.5 square permeability have more than meter of green open space per capita doubled in the past two decades. Note: See Chapter 2, Section 2.1, 2.2, and Chapter 3, Table 3.1 for more details. » Exposure of India’s urban population to dangerous levels of heat stress has increased by 71 percent from 4.3 billion in1983-1990 to 10.1 billion person-hours per year in 2010- 2016 in the country’s 10 largest cities. » Under a global high-emissions scenario, heat-related deaths are expected to more than double from 144,000 a year to 328,500 by 2050. » Under a global low-emissions scenario, one-fifths of working hours per year in major Indian cities such as Chennai, Lucknow and Surat could be under high heat stress con- ditions by 2050. » In Chennai, extreme heat is already putting workers in danger and costing as much as $1.9 billion each year, or 2.3 percent of the city’s gross domestic product (GDP). Under a global high-emissions scenario, 3.2 percent of the city’s GDP could be at risk by 2050 because of heat stress. Note: See Chapter 2, Section 2.2 for details. 2. URGENT AND PROACTIVE ACTIONS NEEDED TO STRENGTHEN URBAN RESILIENCE The national and state governments are taking numerous actions to support cit- ies, which need to be scaled up rapidly to meet the vast urban infrastructure needs 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY while integrating climate resilience measures. To address the increasing demand for urban infrastructure and services such as water supply and sanitation, public trans- port, access to housing, and solid waste management, the Government of India has initiated several new programs, including the Smart Cities Mission. Additionally, the national government, states, and cities are taking measures to tackle flooding, water The exposure of India’s scarcity, and extreme heat, for example by developing and investing in city-level Heat urban population to Action Plans. However, the speed and scale of these efforts need to be significantly increased to meet the growing challenge. dangerous levels of heat stress increased Additional and timely climate resilience measures are needed, including risk assessment, planning and investing in resilient infrastructure and services, and by 71 percent over the disaster preparedness with a particular focus on disaster prone areas and vulnera- past 30 years, from ble populations. Many municipal governments will benefit from improving their ability 4.3 billion to 10.1 billion to conduct detailed risk assessment, risk-sensitive land use planning, and improving fiscal and fiduciary capacity to execute resilient capital investment projects. person-hours per year of extreme heat A key focus must be on expanding effective early warning and response systems in cities to save lives and protect valuable assets from rising climate and disaster exposure across the impacts. India has benefited immensely from an effective early warning system for tsu- country’s ten largest namis and cyclones. Building on this experience, Indian cities can invest in expanding cities. impact-based and inclusive multi-hazard warning and emergency response systems, improving community preparedness, enhancing processes to recover from disasters quickly, and ensuring safety nets for most vulnerable low-income households. » Ahmedabad’s heat action plan has averted 1200 deaths a year since 2013. » Heat action plans are in place in more than 100 cities nationwide. » Of the 126 cities assessed under Climate Smart Cities Assessment Framework, only 10 had conducted flood risk assessments and developed flood management plans. Note: See Chapter 2, Section 2.3 and Box 2.9 for details. Strengthening Urban Flood Resilience Now is the time to strengthen urban flood resilience to prevent major flooding impacts in Indian cities. Managing urban flood risk requires an integrated approach. Strategies to address urban flooding should be holistic and based on the local risk profile, avoiding development patterns that increase flood risks. An integrated urban watershed-based flood resilience strategy is needed to regulate floodplain develop- ment and stormwater management in new urban areas. Investment is needed in grey or structural systems, such as drains and flood embankments, together with nature- based solutions, or non-structural measures, such as open spaces that can absorb flood water or sustainable urban drainage systems. Specific measures must be based on the unique risk profile of the city, not only to increase flood resilience, but also to ensure water storage, environmental restoration, and access to recreational areas. Because causes of floods may go beyond the jurisdiction of individual cities, national and state urban flood management policies and action plans are required. In addition, 7 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA investing in flood protection alone is not sufficient; it must be supplemented with measures to reduce residual flood risks, such as flood proofing of housing, improving emergency management, and access to insurance or other financial instruments. The costs are high, but the benefits are higher. Large investments are needed to A conservative address the expected increases in urban flood risk. See detailed recommendations estimate for in Box 2.4. A conservative estimate for supporting 60 percent of high-risk cities with flood resilience measures over the next 15 years is $150 billion, but this could help supporting 60 avert large expected annual flood damages by 2050. percent of high-risk Strengthening Urban Heat Stress Resilience cities with flood resilience measures Adapting to the growing risks of extreme heat will bring large economic and social benefits to Indian cities. Introduction of Heat Action Plans in Indian cities has saved over the next 15 lives and reduced economic losses. These need to be applied in all high-risk cities. Key years is $150 billion. heat mitigation actions include providing heat wave early warning systems, increasing urban tree canopies and shading, replacing heat-intensifying roofs with cool roofs, and shifting work hours. The benefit-cost ratios of adaptation interventions against heat are high, most notably for heat wave early warning and emergency management systems which offer potential health and economic benefits that exceed their costs by a ratio of more than 20:1. The economic case for investing in heat mitigation is even stronger considering the wider benefits that actions such as urban greening offer for mitigation of floods, increases in property values, reductions in air pollution, and greater comfort and mental health of residents. » Implementing heat mitigation actions across Indian cities would increase GDP by up to 0.4 percent and save up to 130,000 lives a year by 2050. Note: See Chapter 2, Section 2.3 and Box 2.9 for details. Improving Urban Housing and Transport Adaptation Urban housing is highly exposed to climate impacts, but further actions can enhance resilience for existing and future dwellings. India’s housing sector is highly vulnerable to flooding, extreme heat, cyclones, landslides, and earthquakes, and there is an opportunity to promote and mainstream development of climate-resilient, green housing—simply because more than half of the housing stock needed in 2070 is yet to be built. Green housing approach can also support low carbon pathways by better conserving energy and water and utilizing renewable and recycled materials. Resilience in housing must be mainstreamed into policy, planning, and develop- ment, and private developers, builders, and users must all be engaged. Priorities are to develop an integrated policy and regulatory framework for resilient housing ecosystems and improve capacity to implement the framework at all levels of gov- ernment; develop capacity in data collection and monitoring of the sector to provide evidence to strengthen the analytical underpinning for climate resilience measures; 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY mainstream adaptation planning and resilient investment planning at all levels, ensur- ing that new housing development is a part of a compact, climate-resilient urban growth pattern; and raise awareness of and provide incentives and technical assis- tance to the private sector and housing end users in a targeted manner to embrace adaptation measures at the development and operational stages. » Between 2022 and 2070, more than 144 million dwelling units will be needed in India— more than double the existing urban housing stock. Note: See Chapter 2, Section 2.4 for details. Urban transport is highly vulnerable to flood events, and regular maintenance and evidence-based investment in flood protection and system redundancy are essen- tial. More than one-quarter of all urban road networks in India are directly exposed to some level of flooding under a 1-in-100-year flood scenario. Even limited network exposure can result in drastic disruptions. With just 10 to 20 percent of roads inun- dated, some cities could lose more than 50 percent of their transportation systems. An increase in urban heat could reduce hours of rail operations, affecting urban travel. During flooding and extreme heat days, using public transit can become hazardous for travelers. Flood hazard mapping is essential, and key investments in maintenance and flood protection must be combined with development of alternative travel routes. Priorities include improving infrastructure maintenance, including drainage systems and culverts; increasing system redundancy so that alternative routes replace roads that become impassable during floods; increasing infrastructure resilience through a combination of green and grey infrastructure solutions; and considering hazards and preparing integrated hazard maps when planning new infrastructure investments. Surat city, Gujarat. © Azad Jain. 9 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA » More than one quarter of India’s 318,066 kilometers of urban road networks is directly exposed to some level of flooding in the 1-in-100-year flood scenario. » With just 10 to 20 percent of roads inundated, some cities could lose more than 50 Between 2022 and percent of their transportation systems. 2070, more than 144 » Globally, every $1 spent on road maintenance saves, on average, $1.50 in new million dwelling investments. units will be needed Note: See Chapter 2, Section 2.5 for details. in India, more than doubling the existing 3. OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORE-EFFICIENT URBAN SERVICES AND housing stock. BETTER QUALITY OF URBAN LIFE Major cities are already planning for low-carbon growth, and there is enormous poten- tial for further reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Reduction in GHG emis- sions below the historical trend is anticipated in some but not all cities, with emissions projected to drop by 2050 in four of the five cities analyzed (Chennai, New Delhi, Indore and Thiruvananthapuram). There is great potential to increases these reductions further. » Under best case scenario for emission reductions, key cities could reduce their emis- sions below historical trends by 2050. Emissions could drop by 82 percent in New Delhi and as much as 89 percent in Chennai. Note: See Chapter 3, Section 3.1 and Figure 3.2 for details. A low-carbon pathway can be achieved by increasing the efficiency of the urban- ization process and the share of renewable energy in electricity production. Specifically, reduction can be best achieved through combinations of interventions, including encouraging urban compactness and density; modernizing municipal ser- vices, especially solid waste management; building green, energy-efficient hous- ing; and investing in public transportation and moving away from fossil fuel–based transport. Urban Planning for Efficient Cities Well-planned compact cities have the potential to reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions, improving livability. Urban expansion, if not managed well, not only increases exposure to climate impacts but exacerbates urban challenges of access to basic services, congestion, and air pollution. Compact cities through integrated urban planning, and transit-oriented development approaches can reduce energy consump- tion and GHG emissions, enhance resilience, and reduce air pollution, improving liva- bility and quality of life. In the cities this report analyzes, the most-ambitious green urban policy scenario requires extra investment costs for adaptation and low-carbon growth, although these investments would allow for savings from urban expansion and maintenance costs. 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Development of well-planned, compact cities accompanied by green areas, ame- nities, and clean public transportation will improve livability and the quality of life of urban residents. Many cities have limited green space per inhabitant and limited access to urban amenities such as parks and public transport. There is a need and an opportunity to manage urban expansion better, which would greatly improve urban livability. For example, a city that has more green space and tree canopy cover will Most carbon emissions have cleaner air and better walkability and better ability to adapt to heat waves. Clean in urban areas public transportation and greater access to services and markets increase employ- ment. A city that can recover more quickly from disaster shocks and ensure business come from energy, continuity will be more livable and more competitive. transport, and Investing in Green and Resilient Municipal Services building sectors. Green, resilient municipal services, especially sustainable Solid Waste Management (SWM), are critical for efficient, low-carbon urban development. Modernization of solid waste management system covering the entire value chain from household segregation to recycling, and leveraging a wide range of technologies—such as clean collection vehicles and anaerobic digestion plants shows significant emissions reduc- tion in all cities assessed, attributable to a combination of better management of bio- degradable waste, reduced landfilling, and improved methane capture. Many Indian cities such as Indore are already benefiting from such investments, supporting green jobs and biogas production. Reducing emissions from the SWM sector will require a mitigation roadmap with clear priorities, milestones, and timeframes. Modernization also has costs, and therefore cost recovery would be essential. To modernize solid waste management, it will be necessary to adopt the regulatory, policy, and operational framework and increase financial sustainability through improved cost recovery. » 153.4 million ton of carbon dioxide equivalent was emitted from waste in India in 2020, of which almost 4 million ton was methane emissions. » Investment costs for modernization are estimated to be $40 per capita. These invest- ments could reduce GHG emissions by 71 percent by 2050 across the five cities stud- ied for this report. » Estimated investment for modernization of solid waste management, improving waste disposal and collection efficiency, is $22 billion by 2050 but could reach $55 billion under a more-advanced best-case scenario leveraging innovative technology to limit landfill. Note: See Chapter 3, Section 3.3 for details. 11 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA FIGURE ES.3 Priority adaptation and low-carbon solutions for Indian cities Adaptation Solutions 01 02 URBAN FLOOD EARLY WARNING MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS 01 02 08 03 04 05 NATURE BASED COOL ROOFS 11 SOLUTIONS & TREE COVER 04 10 05 06 HEAT ACTION INCLUSIVE PLANNING SHELTERS 12 12 Low Carbon Solutions 07 08 IMPROVED WATER IMPROVED WASTE MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT 06 03 09 10 ELECTRIFICATION COMPACT CITY 07 OF MOBILITY 11 12 RENEWABLE ENERGY EFFICIENT 09 ENERGY BUILDINGS 13 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Traffic congestion in Mumbai. © Geng Li. Green and Resilient Urban Housing and Transport There are significant opportunities for improving energy efficiency, resilience, and emissions reduction in existing and new houses. The housing sector generates substantial emissions, which can be reduced through building improvements such as installation of rooftop solar panels and adopting green housing design parameters. Emissions are generated throughout the life cycle of production, construction, use, demolition, and rebuilding. Green housing design practices such as roof and wall insu- lation and efficient glazing can be incorporated into all new buildings, which would reduce energy consumption and emissions from the housing sector substantially by 2070. Incremental costs for increasing energy efficiency and reducing emissions vary based on choice of intervention, with installation of rooftop solar panels being the most cost-effective. It is estimated that the incremental cost for installing rooftop solar panels on all existing housing stock in 2022 is roughly 3 percent of the total con- struction cost, translating to about $150 per person at a total cost of $210 billion. For future housing stock, the extra cost of green housing interventions on new house con- struction (improvement in building envelope, wall materials, ventilation, and windows) 14 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY would be $50 per person, adding up to approximately $66 billion for every decade between now and 2070. Upfront incremental costs vary across different income groups. Simulation shows that even all-in measures of solar roofs and efficient envelopes can be recouped within three years for housing for high- and middle-income households, suggesting It is estimated that the that introducing mandatory requirements for housing for these people could be feasi- incremental cost for ble, but the initial costs of green housing for lower-income households could be pro- hibitively high. Therefore, it is essential to provide incentives and support to these installing rooftop solar groups to enable them to adopt green measures. panels on all existing housing stock is » Under the historical trend scenario, the total energy consumption and carbon diox- roughly 3 percent of ide emissions from urban housing in the five cities studied would be 2.4 times as high by 2050 and 4.1 times as high by 2070. the total construction » Retrofitting existing housing stock by installing rooftop solar panels in the five case- cost, translating to study cities would reduce energy consumption by an average of approximately 64 about $150 per person. percent. Note: See Chapter 3, Section 3.4 for details. Planning for less-polluting transportation and an integrated public transportation system can help toward a low-carbon pathway. Road transportation accounts for a large share of urban emissions but reducing emissions will be a challenge because demand is soaring. There is a growing need for reduced emissions—and better air quality—yet urban passenger travel demand is expected to be 42 percent greater by 2030. A modal shift toward non-motorized and public transportation in cities would help reduce overall GHG emissions and improve air quality. Transit-oriented develop- ment and compact city concepts can reduce emissions by up to 20 percent versus historical trends. Multimodal integration can help provide seamless connectivity from the first to last mile, making public transportation journeys faster, safer, and more affordable, increasing their competitiveness with personal transportation. Many actions to reduce emissions will also ease air pollution and related health challenges in India’s cities. Improvements in road transportation, together with improved municipal waste management and a transition to cleaner energy, would greatly reduce air pollution. 15 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA 4. SIGNIFICANT FINANCING AND CAPACITY-BUILDING SUPPORT REQUIRED TO DRIVE RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT The cost of resilient, low-carbon urban development is well beyond current munic- ipal spending and greatly exceeds current financing capacity. Under a conservative urbanization scenario of reaching 43 percent urbanization by 2050 and 52 percent by 2070, the total estimated investment needs of developing new urban infrastructure and services that incorporate climate-resilient, low-carbon approaches are projected to be $2.4 trillion by 2050 and $10.9 trillion by 2070. Under a moderate urbanization scenario of reaching 54 percent urbanization by 2050 and 66 percent by 2070, the total estimated investment needs of developing resilient and green urban infrastruc- ture and services are projected to be $2.8 trillion by 2050 and $13.4 trillion by 2070. See Chapter 4, Section 4.1 for more details. Current spending is well below the required levels. Current capital expenditures in Indian cities—an overwhelming share of which is from public fiscal resources—are far below what is needed. Total capital investment averaged $10.6 billion per year from 2011 to 2018. India’s current spending on urban infrastructure and services (0.70 per- cent of GDP) is much lower than in other countries and must be substantially increased. Revenue generation by cities is low. Cities’ own-source revenue is low and remained flat at 1 percent of GDP from 2011 to 2018. Property tax collection is low and represents a far lower share of GDP (0.15 percent), compared with other countries (0.30 to 0.60 percent). In addition, many cities in India have not been able to spend their capital budgets fully in recent years and need support in increasing implementation capacity. Because cities do not track their entire climate-related spending, it is difficult to monitor levels and changes and to present a case for financing. Climate invest- ments are not tracked separately in municipal accounts, which impedes monitoring and reduces the chances of attracting financing. Based on a review of budgets and accounting statements for selected cities conducted for this report, just 2 to 3 per- cent of spending could be attributed to explicitly climate-related activities. Central, state, and municipal governments must work together to improve financ- ing for resilience measures. An urban finance strategy and road map can help iden- tify a list of key actions to increase public and private sector financing for resilience actions. National and state governments can help improve policies, regulations, and capacity building, including through climate-linked inter-governmental fiscal trans- fers (possibly performance based), and help strengthen municipalities’ fiduciary and financial management and own-source revenue performance. Indian cities need innovative funding and improved accounting for resilience mea- sures. Municipal governments can improve multiyear capital investment and financ- ing plans, develop bankable climate projects, and better engage the private sector. This includes strengthening municipal governments’ public finances, procurement, and planning; increasing implementation capacity; increasing private sector aware- ness; access to climate risk data and support for innovative business models. Cities 16 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FIGURE ES.4  Significant financing is needed to drive resilient urban development in India 2018 2050 2060 2070 2.5% 1.7% 0.7% GDP Note: See Chapter 4, Section 4.2 for more details. also need to improve and harmonize budgeting and tracking of climate actions. Some Indian cities such as Ahmedabad are already taking effective actions in this regard. New and international sources of financing for climate actions can also be explored such as carbon markets, climate funds including Green Climate Fund, Global Environment Facility, Climate Investment Fund, Adaptation Fund, as well as Green Bonds, commercial banks, sovereign wealth funds, multilateral/bilateral development finance institutions, blended finance, and philanthropic institutions. 5. ACHIEVING RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Now is the time for Indian cities and key stakeholders to invest more in resilient urban development. Indian cities must adapt to the rising impacts of urban flood- ing and extreme heat while investing in resilient and efficient municipal infrastruc- ture and services. Timely actions can avert billions of annual damages and losses in flooding and urban heat-related impacts and improve the quality of urban life, eco- nomic growth, and clean air. The benefits would be resilient, green, more-livable, and more-prosperous cities. A dedicated program is needed to support resilient urban development in India. Key priorities include investing in a 10-point action plan for cities, developing a national and state urban resilience program to address flooding and extreme heat, and devising a financing and implementation strategy. The investment program can also focus on enhancing institutional capacity and creating incentives to foster col- laboration and cooperation among key stakeholders. See Chapter 5, Box 5.1, Table 5.1, Annex 3 and 4 for detailed recommendations. 17 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA BOX ES.1 Big Gains on Urban Resilience Are Within Reach Timely adaptation can avert billions of annual damages and losses in flooding and urban heat-related impacts. » Close to $5 billion in pluvial flood-related losses can be averted by 2030 and $14 billion to $30 billion by 2070. » Greening cities with cool roofs and implementing heat wave early warning systems and other heat mitigation actions in Indian cities would increase GDP and save up to 130,000 lives a year by 2050. » Opportunity to improve resilience and energy efficiency in 144 million dwelling units yet to come by 2070. Low-carbon pathways can be achieved and will be efficient in the long run. » The most ambitious policies and related investment would allow cities assessed for this report to reduce their emissions by 80 percent on average by 2050 and save up to $136 billion in expansion costs by 2050 through more efficient planning, infrastructure and service provisions. » An up to 70 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions can be achieved in the waste management sector by 2050 across the five cities studied for this report. » Energy consumption can be reduced by 68 percent by installing rooftop solar panels on the existing housing stock across the five cities studied for this report. Note: See Chapter 2 and 3 for details. Invest in a 10-point city climate action plan Ten key actions are recommended that each Indian city can take to plan for and invest in climate solutions (See Chapter 5, Box 5.1). The scope of these actions should be adjusted based on the city’s context, population, size, climate and disaster risk profile, development trajectory, and municipal government capacity. Invest in a national and state urban resilience program National and state governments have the opportunity to launch urban resilience pro- grams that create an enabling environment, support policy reforms, and provide tech- nical, financial, and operational support to high-risk states and cities (See Chapter 5, Table 5.1). National flood and extreme heat resilience programs are proposed. A national approach to flooding and heat is needed because these risks typically extend beyond urban jurisdictional boundaries and require higher-level and cross-sectoral coordination. In the case of urban flood management, although some investments and actions (e.g., maintenance of urban drainage systems) fall under the purview of munic- ipal government, critical areas such as management of watersheds, river basins, and the coast may be outside the purview of municipal bodies. Develop a Financing and Implementation Strategy National, state, and municipal finance strategies and implementation plans are needed. The strategy must be based on meeting different cities’ climate action needs, factoring in fiscal autonomy and capacity, incentives, and creditworthiness. Although 18 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY many Indian cities rely heavily on transfers, municipal governments with greater fiscal autonomy have more available sources and instruments to leverage own-source rev- enues such as property taxes, user charges and fees, and land value capture mech- anisms. National and state governments can also consider transparent, predictable, accountable and climate-targeted intergovernmental fiscal transfers and perfor- mance-based grants. Indian cities will need significant Increase Institutional Capacity and Collaboration for Resilient Urban Development empowerment and National and state governments can support cities by strengthening integrated regu- support as they latory, policy, and operational frameworks. They can help improve the enabling envi- ronment, support policy reforms, and provide technical, financial, and operational improve collaboration assistance to high-risk cities. Enhancing municipal staff numbers and skills will be of all stakeholders to essential for improving risk data collection and assessment, climate-informed urban strengthen climate- planning and budgeting, and execution. Additionally, interjurisdictional approaches need to be adjusted to incentivize and support cities in cooperating beyond their sensitive planning and boundaries on critical matters such as flood management, which may require a water- development. shed basin, river basin, or coastal management approach. NEXT STEP The national government can develop a dedicated national urban resilience pro- gram along with a financing strategy, based on the recommendations of this report. The urban resilience program priorities are identified in Chapter 5 and can be in the form of a new urban mission, building on lessons from earlier missions, and developed with key counterparts. As a next step, a national multisectoral task force can be formed consisting of representatives from the key ministries to develop a new national program on urban resilience. The task force can assess ongoing policies and schemes at the central, state, and municipal levels; and assess what works well and what can be improved. They may consider similar experiences nationally and globally, and suggest improvements based on this report’s recommendations. These include developing a financing strategy and implementation plan outlining key actions, roles, timeline, responsibilities and budget requirements. Supporting recommendations on improving multisectoral, integrated planning for resilient infrastructure standards, guidance, and implementation, as well as measures to increase institutional capacity may also be considered. 19 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA FIGURE ES.5 Achieving Resilient and Prosperous Cities in India: Key Recommendations National & City Interventions State Interventions 10-Point City Climate Action Plan Risk data, early warning, Flood & Extreme Assess Risk & Plan support for high-risk 1. Local climate and disaster risk assessment, Heat Resilience population For Climate Action Monitoring and Evaluation 2. Impact-based, multi-hazard, warning and response Invest In 3. Climate-sensitive new urban development Resilient and green municipal Disaster Resilience 4. Floods and heat stress resilience services, buildings, transport, & Climate Adaptation 5. Prioritize the urban poor and vulnerable Resilient & land use 6. Private sector’s role in risk transfer and resilience Efficient Urban Development Regulations and standards, 7. Compact and green city expansion, densification multi-sectoral planning, Invest In Resilient 8. Efficient, resilient, green municipal services- SWM municipal capacity 9. Resilient and green construction- new housing & Green Development 10. Resilient and green public transport Financing roadmap, Financing & technical support City Finance Implementation Government transfer, Municipal revenue, National and local Banks Strategy Improved private sector Private Sector Finance Mobilization, International public & Private engagement in urban resilience Collaboration and Coordination Multisectoral Planning for heat and flood, other climate and disaster shocks Cross-border collaboration, Rural-urban, watershed level Citizen and private sector awareness & engagement Institutional Capacity Urban planning & resilience Improved Quality Project preparation, implementation and monitoring, results of Life Finance, budgeting Private Sector Engagement, Citizen, NGOs 20 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Potential Benefits Improved Urban Safety Actions to reduce extreme heat stress would increase city GDP and save up to 130,000 lives a year by 2050. Flood resilience actions in selected high-risk cities can reduce projected annual flood damages of $850 billion by 2050 Resilient and Green Urban Development and Services Transport: Improved resilience measures can reduce travel disruptions and related losses on 318,000 kilometers, or 27% of all urban road networks in India exposed to 1-in-100 year flood Potentially 70 percent of emissions reduction by modernizing management of solid waste Improved public amenities and open spaces Other benefits: Urban growth in safe areas; public health and air quality improvements Resilient and Green Buildings Potential to improve provision of resilient housing in over 144 million dwelling units by 2070 Energy consumption can be reduced by an average of approximately 64 percent through the installation of rooftop solar panels on the existing housing stock Vibrant Urban Economies Improved GDP: By averting projected GDP losses from extreme heat and flooding Improved support for the most vulnerable: By saving lives of most at risk from extreme heat or flooding, and improving their recovery Other benefits: Reduced inequality and urban poverty 21 O1 INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW Railway platform in Kolkata, India. © Dibakar Roy. 22 01 Introduction and Overview 1.1  URBANIZATION AND THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE India has a significant opportunity to shape urban- 2050 and 52 percent by 2070. Figure 1.1 shows the ization to drive climate-resilient, low-carbon, and conservative urbanization projection illustrating inclusive growth. The country has the highest con- the increase in the aggregate projected urban pop- centration of medium and large cities in South Asia ulation compared to the rural population between and is home to a globally significant urban system 1960-2050, and the expected growth in population consisting of over 4,0411 cities and towns of differ- for selected cities between 2022-2070. Given that ent sizes. The number of Indians residing in urban most of this projected urban growth is yet to happen, areas increased sixfold over the last 60 years, rising the country has an important window in which to take from 18 percent of the population in 1960 to 35 per- actions that can facilitate a transition to climate-re- cent in 2020.2 In 2020, cities hosted over one-third silient urban economy. of the national population—around 480 million. This population is projected to almost double to 951 mil- Cities are India’s economic hubs, with significant lion by 2050, increasing to 1.1 billion by 2070.3 These potential to contribute even more toward national estimates are based on a moderate urbanization pro- economic and social development. Urban areas cur- jection of the urban population reaching 54 percent rently contribute an estimated 63 percent to India’s of the total by 2050 and 66 percent by 2070. A more gross domestic product (GDP).4 This is expected to conservative scenario was also modelled which esti- increase to 75 percent by 2050. Indian cities are mated the urban population reaching 43 percent by engines of innovation, ranking third in the world in FIGURE 1.1 India: Urban Population Projections (a) Compared to rural areas (millions) (b) For selected cities (millions) 1500 40 35 POPULATION (MILLIONS) 30 1000 25 MILLIONS 20 15 500 10 5 0 0 1960 1975 2000 2020 2030 2050 2022 2050 2070 Rural Population Urban Population Chennai Delhi Surat Thiruvananthapuram Indore Source: UN population Data and India Census 2011. 1 According to Census 2011, India has 4,041 statutory towns or settlements defined as urban by the municipal legislations of respective states including municipal corporations, municipalities and town councils (panchayats). Reference: Annual Survey of India’s City-Systems (ASICS) 2023; Janaagraha Centre of Citizenship and Democracy available at https://www.janaagraha.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/ASICS-2023.pdf 2 World Bank Open Data, 2023. 3 Based on UN population and 2011 census data. 4 Coalition for Urban Transition, not dated. Available at: https://urbantransitions.global/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/SUO-India-Designed-Report- UPDATED_12Aug.pdf 23 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA start-up ecosystems.5 70 percent of the new employ- exposure of vulnerable populations, buildings, and ment to be created in India by 2030 is expected to be in economic assets. cities.6 Many Indian cities are among the fastest-grow- ing in the world, and some are expected to be larger in Climate change-related extreme heat and urban population and GDP than individual countries.7 flooding impacts are likely to grow exponentially if additional actions are not taken. Heat stress in Climate change poses specific challenges to Indian Indian cities is intensifying and mortality from heat cities. India is experiencing increased temperatures waves could increase by 120 percent by 2050. For consistent with global warming. Temperatures are India’s urban population, this would equate to a rise projected to increase approximately 4.15°C by 2080- from 144,000 to 328,500 heat related deaths per 99 under a high emissions pathway (under SSP5- year by 2050 under a high climate change scenario 8.5—Shared Socioeconomic Pathway developed by (considering both increased heat stress and urban Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which population growth). Urban flooding related losses are projects high future GHG emissions), and 0.71°C projected to increased substantially in future. Annual in the most optimistic scenario (SSP1-1.9—Shared estimated losses just from pluvial or storm water Socioeconomic Pathways which projects ambitious related flooding is likely to increase from $4 billion GHG emissions limit to meet 1.5 degree centigrade in 2023 to upto $14-30 billion by 2070 exposing upto limit set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement).8 While 46.4 million people. Urban flooding has a substantial considerable uncertainty characterizes projections impact on urban road network. For e.g. even with of local long-term future rainfall precipitation trends only 10 or 20 percent of the road inundated, some cit- in India, dry spells and rainfall extremes have become ies can lose more than 50 percent of their transport more frequent in the country. These climate impacts system. are more pronounced in cities because the urban environment magnifies the event itself. For exam- Emissions from Indian cities, though relatively ple, the concentration of concrete buildings cre- small on a per capita basis, are growing. Cities ates “urban heat islands” (UHI) which increase urban globally have higher emissions compared to rural temperatures at night during heat waves. Increased areas because they house more people and have pavement of urban settlements can exacerbate sur- higher consumption. Most carbon emissions in urban face water impermeability and raise exposure to areas of India come from the energy, transport, and floods. building sectors. Urban emissions vary with multiple factors, including urban population growth, urban Cities are highly interconnected systems that can be density and the structure of a city’s economy. Major paralyzed by “cascading infrastructure failure” when cities are already planning for low-carbon growth, key infrastructure assets are affected. For example, and there is additional potential to further improve flooding can affect electricity transmission lines low carbon development. which may then lead to water and sewage system outages, and cause fire, disruption of traffic, and economic losses. Overall, cities are highly vulnerable 1.2  THE OUTLOOK to climatic or other disasters, socially and economi- Planning and investment in Indian cities need to cally, simply because of their high concentration and respond to the host of existing challenges while 5 Economic Survey, 2018-2019. 6 McKinsey Global Institute, 2010 accessed from https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/urbanization/urban-awakening-in-india 7 See https://www.weforum.org/stories/2018/12/all-of-the-world-s-top-10-cities-with-the-fastest-growing-economies-will-be-in-india/ and McKinsey Global Institute, 2010 accessed from https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/operations/our%20insights/urban%20 awakening%20in%20india/mgi_indias_urban_awakening_executive_summary.pdf 8 Based on data from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal (2023). 24 01 Introduction and Overview integrating responses to growing climate threats. by installing rooftop solar panels for the existing Indian cities already face challenges in meeting housing stock. These actions and investments would growing demand in water supply, public transport, significantly contribute to GoI’s priorities under its parks, sewerage, access to housing, and solid waste nationally determined contributions (NDC) for 2021– collection and treatment. Poor air quality and growing 2030, which aim to reduce the emissions intensity of water scarcity are other crucial challenges affecting the GDP by 45 percent. cities. Compounding these challenges, new urban growth in many cities is taking place largely on the city’s fringes and spilling over municipal boundaries, 1.3  THE REPORT: ANALYTICS AND making it challenging to coordinate and deliver resil- STRUCTURE ient services and infrastructure.9 The last population This report is based on the India Climate Smart census, conducted in 2011, showed that 65.5 mil- Urbanization Technical Assistance (TA) program sup- lion Indians lived in informal urban neighborhoods. ported by the World Bank and the Global Facility for These informal settlements increase cities’ vulnera- Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). The aim bility and exposure to climate and disaster impacts, of the report is to identify major climate impacts on especially affecting their low-income residents. Indian cities and to explore strategies to drive cli- These challenges need to be addressed urgently. The mate resilient and low carbon urban development. Government of India (GoI) has started several initia- tives to meet urban infrastructure needs such as The TA was initiated in December 2022 following con- Smart Cities Mission. The GoI, as well as many states sultations and a workshop with key stakeholders to and cities are also taking actions to address extreme map relevant ongoing activities and studies and to heat and urban flooding, for example by developing confirm the scope of the study (see Annex 1 for key heat action plan or investing in flood risk manage- findings from the consultations). Based on this initial ment. Additional investments and technical support scoping, detailed analytics were undertaken for pri- is now needed to further improve climate-informed ority areas based on a variety of methods and relying urban planning, regulation and enforcement, resil- on globally available data. These analytics include ient infrastructure, and service provision as climate probabilistic risk modeling to simulate future disas- impacts are projected to increase dramatically in cit- ter impacts and the use of the Urban Climate Model ies (see earlier paragraphs). (UrbClim) to generate high-resolution climate infor- mation for cities. Timely and dedicated support to cities would sig- nificantly contribute to low-carbon goals. The sim- The analytics also include the use of the Climate Action ulations conducted for this report show that the most for Urban Sustainability (CURB) tool to understand ambitious urban policies and related investment the cost, feasibility, and impact of different munic- would allow Indian cities to reduce their emissions by ipal actions.10 The Excellence in Design for Greater an average of 80 percent by 2050 and preserve a total Efficiencies (EDGE) green building software was used of 337 square kilometers of land. An up to 70 percent to compare energy consumption, carbon emission, reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can and utility cost savings in housing construction. be achieved in the Solid Waste Management (SWM) sector alone by 2050. Approximately 40-60 per- Taken together, these analytics assess urban cli- cent of urban energy consumption can be reduced mate change risks and carbon emissions at the 9 "Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia: Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Liveability", World Bank, 2015. 10 UrbClim is an urban climate model designed to simulate impacts of the urban heat island effect and future climate scenarios on heat stress at a high spatial resolution. Developed by the Flemish technical institute VITO, it simulates exchange of energy between the earth’s atmosphere and urban surfaces—based on remote sensing observations—through a physical modeling framework. CURB is an interactive tool that is designed specifically to help cities act on climate by allowing them to map out different action plans and evaluate the cost, feasibility, and impact. 25 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA national level and for selected “deep dive” cities: The report has five chapters. Following the introduc- Chennai, Indore, Lucknow, New Delhi, Surat, and tion and overview in this chapter, Chapter II focuses Thiruvananthapuram. The aim was to analyze a rep- on climate change impacts and adaptation needs resentative sample of India’s urban typologies and in Indian cities. Chapter III discusses the emissions geographic diversity, illustrating the country’s het- trajectory of Indian cities and evaluates the carbon erogeneous urban landscape. abatement potential and low-carbon development pathways. Chapter IV discusses urban finance needs Once draft findings were available from key analytics, for climate action and the roles of the public and pri- follow-up consultations were held in December 2023 vate sectors. Chapter V provides a conclusion and with key stakeholders to discuss the findings and proposes a way forward to build climate-ready cities potential solutions, including for the “deep dive” cit- of tomorrow and contribute to a resilient and low- ies. Based on the feedback received, the report was carbon urban transition in India. finalized in 2025. Figure 1.2 illustrates the process and timeline. FIGURE 1.2 Report Development Process and Timeline December 2022 December 12, 2023 Concept Consultations with GOI counterparts Finance for Climate Action in Indian Cities (MoHUA, NIUA, Cities) Workshop organized close collaboration with IFC & WB to bring together private sector urban service Agreement on scope, methodology and timeline. providers, private sector financial institutions, Adaptation & Low Carbon Policies & thinktanks, and development partners Resilience Development Financing 2025 Report December 12–18, 2023 Launch and December 13, 2022 Consultations with GOI counterparts Publication India Stakeholder Consultation Roundtable (MoHUA, NIUA, deep dive cities) Organized in close collaboration with IFC & WB to • Present key findings and recommendations from the analytics bring together a diverse range of public and private • Understand ongoing GoI initiatives to coordinate with stakeholders to identify sectoral priorities and • Agree on way forward including official review and research gaps to inform the Concept endorsement for publication Fall 2022 January -November 2023 January – December 2024 Concept Data Collection, Modeling and Analysis Revision and Finalization Development Revision and Finalization of Underlying methods & tools in undertaking analysis relying on Rapid risk assessment for globally available data selected cities, and deep dive for: Analytical Report based on review 1. Urban Performance Tool for Urban Growth Scenarios 1. Chennai and comments from GoI. 2. Urban Climate (UrbClim) Model for Urban Heat 2. Surat 3. Excellence in Design for Greater Efficiencies (EDGE) Green 3. Indore Building for Housing 4. Thiruvananthapuram 4. Climate Action for Urban Sustainability (CURB) tool for 5. New Delhi Municipal Services 6. Lucknow (Urban Heat only) Note: GoI – Government of India, MoHUA – Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, NIUA – National Institute of Urban Affairs, IFC – International Finance Corporation, WB – World Bank 26 O2 CLIMATE IMPACTS AND URBAN ADAPTATION NEEDS Flooding in Kolkata. © Dibakar Roy 27 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Climate change and urban settlement growth pat- Sections 2.1 and 2.2 focus on identifying impacts terns are increasing disaster risk in Indian cities. from flooding and urban heat challenges. Section 2.3 The key factors contributing to urban disaster risk— focuses on what cities can do to improve resilience hazard, vulnerability and exposure—are compounded to these climate risks. Sections 2.4 and 2.5 focus on by climate change and how the urbanization is taking adaptation needs in housing and urban transport— place in India. sectors that are crucial to ensure inclusive and resil- ient urban development. Section 2.6 summarizes the » Some of the main hazards affecting Indian cities path toward building cities adapted to climate and are flooding, landslides, earthquakes, cyclones, disaster risks. The findings in this chapter are based storm surges, glacier melt, heat waves, and water scarcity. Climate change is affecting rainfall on rapid risk assessments undertaken for selected patterns and intensity as well as temperatures, cities11 and on “deep dive” (or case study) analysis for increasing flooding, extreme heat, and water scar- six cities.12 These cities were selected based on their city impacts. location, hazard profile, and size. » Increasing vulnerability or propensity to damage in many cities is largely driven by old infrastructure designed for a smaller population and by infra- 2.1 URBAN FLOODING IMPACTS structure design standards that take inadequate Flooding is a growing challenge for most Indian account of levels of stormwater runoff. Urban vul- cities. Climate change is affecting the intensity, nerability is also driven by new infrastructure and frequency and variability of rainfall events. In addi- buildings that do not include measures to reduce tion, rapid urban settlement growth has created extreme heat or flooding impacts. large impervious surfaces which increase runoff and » Exposure to hazards in Indian cities is greatly reduce infiltration capacity, resulting in higher peak increased by new settlement growth in haz- discharge. Existing drainage infrastructure is often ard-prone areas. Added factors are the lower adap- only able to cope with limited rainfall intensity (e.g., tive capacity of residents living in low-lying and <10 mm/hr) and is frequently blocked or encroached. high-risk urban areas, for e.g. day laborers working In new development areas, there is often a lag in in extreme heat who may not have access to health installing stormwater drainage infrastructure. These care and safety nets. conditions, together with the intense rainfall associ- This chapter focuses on urban flood and heat ated with the Indian monsoon, create frequent flood- impacts as these are the hazards most intensified by ing in Indian cities and often result in damage and climate change in India. The chapter has six sections. service disruptions. 11 The selected cities are: Agartala, Agra, Bengaluru, Chennai, New Delhi, Dhanbad, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Imphal, Indore, Jaipur, Kanpur, Kolkata, Lucknow, Ludhiana, Mumbai, Patna, Puri, Raipur, Sangli, Surat, Thiruvananthapuram, and Varanasi. These cities cover a range of scales in terms of population and area. Their populations range from under one million to around 20 million. New Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, and Kolkata constitute the four major metro areas in the country. Six of the selected cities have populations over 10 million, three have between 4 and 10 million, six have 2 to 4 million, five have 1 to 2 million, and four have 0.1 to 1 million. Moreover, these cities not only are the centers of urbanization and engines of economic growth, but also hold political significance. Many of them are state capitals, wielding considerable power in urban planning and governance. Therefore, it is crucial to examine the disaster and climate risks they confront and understand their local exposure to natural hazards, as these can have a direct impact on the growth trajectory of the entire country. 12 Chennai, Surat, Lucknow, Thiruvananthapuram, New Delhi, and Indore. 28 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs BOX 2.1 Types of Floods Urban floods can be classified into three main categories: » Pluvial flooding occurs when surface water builds up beyond the absorptive capacity of soil due to extended precipitation and insufficient drainage. Urbanization increases impervious areas and leads to construction of conduits and channels, increasing the peak flood flow. » Coastal flooding is due to tidal or storm surges or sea level rise. » Fluvial flooding occurs when intense or excessive precipitation or snow melt causes rivers to overflow. It is a natural process when, in wet years, a river leaves its lower bed and spreads water across the flood plain. Flood impacts happen when the population occupies the flood plains and is thereby exposed to flooding. In addition, flash flooding refers to quick flooding which often begins within 3-6 hours of the event. Flash flooding may be triggered by heavy rainfall, convective thunderstorms, cloudbursts, erosion, or dam or levee breaks. This flooding type is the most difficult to manage because it gives limited time to warn and evacuate people. Pluvial flood risk in cities is increasing more rapidly the area exposed to pluvial flood hazard grew by 131 than fluvial and coastal flooding risk. This increase percent (see Figure 2.1). is driven by new settlement growth in areas exposed to pluvial floods. Settlement development patterns Pluvial floods also contribute to growing flood risk and increasing Losses associated with urban pluvial flood risk imperviousness, blocking natural stormwater flow or have grown rapidly and are projected to rise ever drying up wetlands. more steeply if nothing is done. Losses associated with pluvial flood risk are currently estimated to be Based on a recent assessment of global flood and set- $4 billion per year and have more than doubled in the tlement data (Rentschler, et al., 2022),13 it was found last two decades (see Table 2.1). Based on the analy- that very high pluvial flood risk zones face a bigger sis conducted for this report (see Box 2.2 for method- increase in settlement extent than safer areas. While ology and data used), pluvial flood risk related losses settlement extent in safe areas grew by 82 percent from expected urbanization trends are expected to from 1985 to 2015, settlement extent in very high plu- reach $5.3 billion by 2030 and $14-30 billion by 2070. vial flood risk areas grew by 102 percent. An assess- ment undertaken for this report for selected Indian These losses are equivalent to approximately 0.15 cities14 found that risks in cities from pluvial flooding percent of India’s current GDP. Economic impact have been growing faster than from fluvial or coastal varies across states and is much higher in the west, flooding. From 1985 to 2015, built-up areas grew overall south, and southwest of the country owing to the by 94 percent. Of this increase, built-up areas exposed high concentration of people and assets in economic to fluvial flood hazard grew by 97 percent and built-up hubs in those regions. Three out of India’s five mega- areas exposed to coastal flooding by 120 percent, but city regions are considered highly exposed to pluvial 13 The assessment leverages the 2019 high-resolution global flood hazard layers by Fathom and the World Settlement Footprint Evolution (WSF-Evo) data set, developed by the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in 2021, which offers high-precision measurements of yearly settlement extents from 1985 to 2015 at 30 by 30 meters spatial resolution and with global coverage. Satellite data on settlement footprints are available for 1985 to 2015. The average expansion rate for the years 2016 to 2020 is extrapolated based on settlement growth and exposure trends from 1995 to 2015. 14 Rapid risk assessments were undertaken for selected cities to assess flood, water scarcity and extreme heat related risk. See footnote 11 for list of selected cities. 29 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA FIGURE 2.1 Settlement exposure to flood hazard (a) Settlements Exposure to Flood Hazard Types (%) Settlement exposure to pluvial flood hazards: Settlement exposure to coastal flood hazards: Settlement exposure to fluvial flood hazards: growth rate (%) growth rate (%) growth rate (%) 140 160 120 120 140 100 120 100 80 100 80 80 60 60 60 40 40 40 20 20 20 0 0 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 None Low Moderate High Very high (b) Built-Up Area in Selected cities Exposed to Pluvial Flood Hazard (square kilometers) 400 300 200 100 1985 1995 2005 2015 Delhi Kolkata Mumbai Chennai Source: a. World Bank staff simulation based on satellite data and Rentschler et al 2022. Note: The assessment is based on satellite data covering the period from 1985 to 2015 and extended to 2020 in this note by back-casting estimates. For methodology see Rentschler et al 2022. b. World Bank staff simulation based on global data on flood risk for selected Indian cities. The city areas were undertaken from Urban Centre Database and serve as boundaries for the spatial analysis. 30 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs BOX 2.2 A Note on the Methodology Used to Assess Present and Future Pluvial Flood Risk for Urbanized Areas in India Pluvial flood risk analysis of direct flood damages was conducted for pluvial flood events expressed in U.S. dollars per year. Risk analysis was overlaid with residential and non-residential land use data to derive the exposure per land use type (e.g., the amount of land exposed to a given flood severity). To estimate risk, the exposure information was overlaid with flood fragility curves and maximum damage functions for land use types. The flood fragility curves and maximum damage values were derived from previous work and are widely adopted in flood risk analysis (Huizinga, De Moel and Szewczyk, 2017). Maximum damage values of $380 per m2 (2020 U.S. dollar values) were adopted for urban residential land use, and $580 per m2 for non-residential urban land use. The benefits of implementing adap- tation measures to cope with future expected risk were based on several simplifying assumptions. The sensitivity of the results was tested against a range of hypothetical adaptation measures (expressed in terms of the intended future protection level) and the net present value of these interventions. In this analysis, discounted net benefit was estimated over the lifetime of the adaptation option. Key data sources used for analysis: » Flood risk: FATHOM flood maps were used for analysis. These maps are derived from a global flood model for 10 different return periods (5, 10, 20, 50, 75, 100, 200, 250, 500, 1000 years) showing extent of the flood and flood depth per return period. » Land use: The JRC human settlement layer (JRC-HSL) was used for urban residential, non-residential land use and urban population. This is a satellite-derived population and built-up area product at 100-meter resolution. The JRC- HSL has exposure (population and built-up area) data for a 10-year time interval. Four time frames were used to eval- uate the historical change in urban flood risk [2000, 2010, 2020, 2030 (predicted)]. JRC-HSL was also used to identify urban areas based on the urban classes adopted in the model: urban, dense, semi-dense, and suburban. This analysis should be interpreted with caution on a local scale. First, pluvial flooding is influenced by the local context, such as the presence of storm drains and local variations in soil conditions. Second, pluvial flooding hazard data is known to be less representative in monsoon-dominated climates like India because the intensity of monsoon rainfall is often not captured in the model. floods.15 Given that 40 percent of India’s GDP is gen- cheaper housing and accessibility to jobs influence erated by the largest urban centers, the risks of ser- the decisions of the urban poor to live in these high vice disruptions and negative welfare impact of this flood-risk areas.16 For example, rents in flood-prone exposure are considerable. areas of Mumbai are 20–25 percent lower than aver- age.17 Analysis conducted in Kolkata found that two out Pluvial flooding disproportionately affects the of the three most flood-prone boroughs in the Kolkata urban poor. Pluvial flood zones are often concen- Municipal Corporation (KMC) area house more than 50 trated in low-lying and poorly drained areas, where the percent of the urban poor.18 urban poor typically live. Global analysis shows that 15 Mega city regions exceed 20 million in population and are hubs of economic activity. The three at risk are Mumbai-Pune-Nashik, Chennai-Coimbatore- Trichy, and Greater Kolkata Asansol. 16 Erman, Alvina; Dallmann, Ingrid. 2022. "Putting a Price on Safety: A Hedonic Price Approach to Flood Risk in African Cities." Policy Research Working Papers; 10127. World Bank. 17 “Here’s how waterlogging impacts Mumbai’s real estate market.” Money Control, June 21, 2022. 18 Mukherjee, Alokananda Banerjee and Bardhan, Suchandra. 2021.”Flood vulnerability and slum concentration mapping in the Indian city of Kolkata: A post-Amphan analysis.” Water Science, Volume 35, Pages 109-126. 31 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Climate change and rapid urban settlement growth the north of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the are the main drivers of future pluvial flood risk, with Khandesh and Marathwada regions of Maharashtra, a forecasted increase of 3.6–7 times in the area and parts of Karnataka (the red areas in Figure 2.2). exposed by 2070. Based on an assessment under- taken for this report (see Box 2.2), climate change is Coastal Floods likely to exacerbate pluvial flooding in many areas, Storm surge and tropical cyclone events can cause an potentially increasing pluvial flood risk in Indian cit- exceptional increase in sea level and trigger coastal ies by 73– 100 percent over the next half-century. flooding in coastal cities. India is frequently affected Climate models project an intensification of extreme by tropical cyclones (typhoons), particularly during the precipitation over most of India, except for coastal monsoon season that runs from June to October. On areas in the southwest and southeast that may expe- average, around two to four tropical cyclones impact rience a limited or even negative change in extreme India every year, mostly affecting West Bengal, Odisha, precipitation. A secondary but also important driver Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. The Bay of Bengal of increased flood risk comes from patterns of to the east of India is one of the most cyclone-prone urban growth. Most Shared Socioeconomic Pathways areas in the world, with an average of five to six tropi- (SSPs)19 project a strong urbanization in high-risk cal cyclones forming in the region each year. Of India’s areas, driving a steep increase in pluvial flood risk. 7,500 km coastline, 5,700 km are exposed to severe cyclones and flooding, and 40 percent of India’s total Adaptation measures to pluvial flood risk should population lives within 100 km of the coastline, mostly therefore primarily focus on areas combining both in dense urban settlements.20 climate change threats and urbanization patterns. Concentrating on areas where large climate impacts The highest risk of mortality and damage in built-up and future urbanization are expected, ‘hotspots’ areas from coastal flooding events is in West Bengal where adaptation measures are most needed have due largely to very high population densities in and been identified for this report. These hotspots pri- around Kolkata, where most of the built-up area marily include cities in the south of Tamil Nadu, is exposed to both coastal and pluvial flooding.21 TABLE 2.1 Urban Pluvial Flood Risk in India: Estimated Impacts by 2070 2000 2023 2030 2070 Urban population exposed to a 1-in-100-year 8.6 million 11.1 million 11.9 million 25.4–46.4 million flood of 50 cm Built-up areas exposed to 1-in-100-year flood 161 million sq. km 330 million sq. km 385 million sq. km 614–1117 million sq. km Annual estimated losses $1.9 billion $4 billion $5.2 billion $4.3–29.9 billion* Districts with risk >$10 million per year 39 80 120 309–435 Districts with risk >$50 million per year 2 12 16 60–147 * Variations based on different spatial urbanization and climate change scenarios Source: Based on World Bank staff simulations using Fathom and JRC-HSL data. 19 Riahi, Keywan, et al. "The Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs): An Overview." UNFCC/IASA 2023. Available at: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/ files/part1_iiasa_rogelj_ssp_poster.pdf 20 Sharma, Sanjay K. "Cyclone Risk Mitigation-India Perspective." NCRMP, NDMA. Available at: https://ndma.gov.in/sites/default/files/Newsletter-Aug22/ Cyclone%20Risk%20Mitigation-%20India%20perspective.pdf 21 Using global data, this analysis focused on assessing flooding and coastal erosion risk for selected Indian cities, incorporating different climate scenarios to illustrate the range of possible outcomes. The climate scenarios include three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-1.9, SSP2- 4.5, and SSP3-7.0. The areas were undertaken from Urban Centre Database and serve as boundaries. 32 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs FIGURE 2.2 Predominant Future Pluvial Flood Challenge Faced by Urban Areas in 2070 Under SSP2 and RCP4.5 32 28 26 30 24 28 LATITUDE 22 26 20 24 18 22 16 20 14 18 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 22 20 Future Urban Flood Challenge High 18 Urbanization LATITUDE 16 Low 14 Climate Change 12 City Population in 2015 10 1 5 10 25 50 8 Million people 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 LONGITUDE Source: Based on World Bank staff simulations using Fathom and JRC-HSL data. Note: “High” and “low” mean districts are facing an above or below-average risk increase due to climate change and/or urbanization. 33 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Another hotspot of coastal flood risk is in the coastal water could also seep into newer settlements in Navi area around Mumbai. Based on Aquaduct, a global Mumbai and the north through various water bod- flood analyzer, the annual costs of coastal floods in ies and waterways. Even if built-up areas in Greater urban areas are projected to increase, if no action is Mumbai were not to expand beyond their 2015 limits, taken, from $2.4 billion in 2010 to $21 billion in 2030, there would still be 210 sq km of exposed settlements and $75 billion by 2050.22 by 2100, the highest exposure of any Indian city. Similar patterns can be seen in Kolkata, though the FIGURE 2.3 scale of impact is smaller. In Surat, it is mainly the Settlement Area in Selected Cities Exposed to Median newer built-up areas on the western side that could Projected Sea Level Rise (sq km) be severely impacted. Fluvial Floods Mumbai The fluvial flood hazard is a serious threat to many Kolkata Indian cities. Weather patterns affected by climate Chennai change, combined with the abundance and size of Surat major river channels, mean that many cities are highly Agartala exposed to fluvial flooding. It is estimated that, if noth- ing changes, annual damages due to fluvial flooding Guwahati in India’s cities will increase from $21 billion in 2010 Puri to $220 billion in 2030 and $770 billion by 2050 (WRI Thiruvananthapuram Aqueduct Floods, 2023). The most exposed cities and 0 50 100 150 200 states are those crossed by the major river systems 2050 2100 notably the Ganga-Brahmaputra. These include cities Source: World Bank staff simulation based on global data on flood and and towns in Bihar and northern parts of the coun- coastal erosion risk for selected Indian cities,incorporating different cli- try including Uttar Pradesh, Assam, and West Bengal. mate scenarios to illustrate the range of possible outcomes. The areas were undertaken from Urban Centre Database and serve as boundaries Other flood-prone areas are in Rajasthan, Delhi, Kerala, for the spatial analysis. and Punjab. In the RCP4.5 scenario, sea level rise is pro- Urban expansion and the construction of water jected to impact critical areas of coastal cities management infrastructure have significantly by 2100. Representative Concentration Pathways altered the fluvial flood risk profiles of Indian cit- (RCP) are climate change scenarios adopted by the ies. The density of river networks in India, notably the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Ganges and its tributaries, means that most cities are to describe future GHG concentration pathways or located near a river and are potentially exposed to trajectories. RCP 4.5 is a moderate scenario in which fluvial flooding. The analysis of flood risk in selected global GHG emissions peak around 2040 and then Indian cities carried out for this report (see Figure decline. In this scenario, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Surat 2.4) concluded that the extent of built-up areas would be among the most affected cities. In Greater exposed to fluvial flood hazards has almost doubled Mumbai, the south is expected to be either flooded or between 1985 and 2015 to reach 1,683 square kilo- surrounded by water during high-tide periods.23 Sea meters by 2015.24 This pattern is particularly notable 22 These estimates are based on WRI Aquaduct (2023), a global flood analyser, and are mostly driven by projecting the impacts of climate, urbanization and socio-economic changes (in a Historical Trends scenario). For details and caveats see: https://www.wri.org/research/aqueduct-floods-methodology 23 That is, with no additional coastal flooding. 24 Using global data, this analysis focused on assessing flooding and coastal erosion risk for selected Indian cities, incorporating different climate scenarios to illustrate the range of possible outcomes. The climate scenarios include three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP1-1.9, SSP2- 4.5, and SSP3-7.0. The areas were undertaken from Urban Centre Database and serve as boundaries. 34 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs in areas with previously low fluvial flood risks or in upper watersheds such as Hyderabad, Bengaluru, and Indore, all of which now frequently face flash floods. In the case of riverine cities, the expansion on both sides of rivers made possible by modern bridge technolo- gies has significantly increased exposure to flooding. Attempts to reduce exposure in large cities like New Delhi and Surat have included the construction of embankments which have contained water but may have resulted in increased flood heights for down- stream cities. Delhi has the largest built-up areas exposed to fluvial flooding among the selected cities analyzed. 2.2 URBAN HEAT IMPACTS Climate projections indicate a substantial increase in episodes of extreme heat stress in India.25 A national assessment conducted by the Indian Rescue operations during the monsoon season in Pathanamthitta, Kerala. © ajijchan. FIGURE 2.4 Built-Up Area in Selected Cities Exposed to Fluvial Risk 1985–2015 (sq km) (a) Built-up area exposed to fluvial flood hazard: metros (sq km) (b) Built-up area exposed to fluvial flood hazard: other cities (sq km) 600 100 Patna Imphal Ludhiana Delhi Lucknow Guwahati 75 400 Surat Kanpur Kolkata Agra Varanasi Agartala Mumbai 50 Hyderabad 200 Raipur Thiruvanthapuram Chennai Indore Sangli 25 Bengaluru Dhanbad 0 Jaipur 1985 1995 2005 2015 Puri 0 1985 1995 2005 2015 Source: World Bank staff simulation based on global data on fluvial flood risk for selected Indian cities. The areas were undertaken from Urban Centre Database and serve as boundaries for the spatial analysis. 25 People living in cities experience higher heat stress due to heat absorption and storage in urban surfaces, reduced evapotranspiration from vegetation, and reduced cooling by wind. 35 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA government on climate change has projected increas- by low greenery, high densities, and associated poor ing temperatures for India through the 21st century, housing conditions, where buildings are constructed including increasing incidence of extreme heat using corrugated metal sheeting and are not equipped events (Krishnan et al, 2020).26 India faces particu- with air conditioning systems. Urban climate simula- larly acute challenges due to the projected increase tions confirm that Indian cities already experience in heat stress since limited access to domestic water significantly higher temperatures than surrounding sources, insulated buildings and air conditioning areas. Strong nighttime UHI effects were found for the make it harder for a significant portion of the urban “deep dive” cities assessed for this report (see Figure population to cope during periods of high heat stress 2.5). Chennai and Surat experience average nighttime (Azhar 2019, World Bank 2022).27 temperatures approximately 3–4°C higher, on aver- age, than nearby rural areas. Lucknow, an inland city, Cities generally experience higher temperatures experiences nighttime temperatures 5°C higher than compared to surrounding rural areas due to con- nearby rural areas. Hot nights are a particular con- crete structures, roads, and other impermeable cern for human health because they inhibit rest and infrastructure. These absorb solar energy and re-emit recovery. it at night, leading to higher temperatures, a phenom- enon called the UHI effect. In Indian cities, UHI is often Heat stress in Indian cities is intensifying, and mor- exacerbated by high population densities, concrete tality from heat waves could increase by 128 percent structures, limited green spaces, and increased heat by 2050.28 This would equate to a rise from 144,000 to generated by human activities, such as transporta- 328,500 heat-related deaths per year by 2050 under a tion, industry, and air conditioning. Most vulnerable high-climate change scenario, an increase of 128 per- to excessive heat are neighborhoods characterized cent.29 This is in line with historical trends. Exposure to FIGURE 2.5 UHI Effect for Chennai, Lucknow, and Surat measured in degrees centigrade (night-time temperature disparity between urban locations and a rural reference location for the present-day period) (a) Chennai (b) Lucknow (c) Surat 5 3.0 3.5 2.5 4 3.0 2.0 2.5 3 2.0 1.5 2 1.5 1.0 1.0 1 0.5 0.5 0 Source: World Bank staff simulation based on UrbClim, an urban-scale climate modeling framework (De Ridder, et al., 2015). Note: UHI is defined as the temperature disparities of urban locations vis-à-vis a rural reference location. The red inset in Panel B highlights Barabanki, an urban settlement close to Lucknow, which manifests a lower UHI intensity. 26 Krishnan R, Sanjay J, Gnanaseelan C, Mujumdar M, Kulkarni A, Chakraborty S. Assessment of climate change over the Indian region: a report of the ministry of earth sciences (MOES), government of India. Springer Nature; 2020. 27 See Azhar, Gulrez. (2019). Indian Summer: Three Essays on Heatwave Vulnerability, Estimation and Adaptation. PhD dissertation, accessed online https://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD431.html. World Bank, 2022. Climate Investment Opportunities in India’s Cooling Sector. 28 See Jones, Nicholas; Tiwari, Asmita; Kikutake, Natsuko; Takacs, Sacha; Souverijns, Niels. 2024. Prioritizing Heat Mitigation Actions in Indian Cities: A Cost-Benefit Analysis under Climate Change Scenarios. Policy Research Working Paper; 10960. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available at: https:// openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/e88a4181-dfe9-4707-9b31-ac94c5dd145a. 29 Considering both increased heat stress and urban population growth. 36 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs dangerously hot conditions across 10 of India’s largest year meet or exceed the high heat stress threshold. cities has already increased by 71 percent, from 4.3 bil- Under a high emissions scenario, the number of high lion person-hours per year in 1983–1990 to 10.1 billion heat stress hours per year would rise by more than person-hours per year in 2010–2016 (see Figure 2.6).30 two-thirds, amounting to some 40 percent of annual working hours.32 The projections also point to a significant intensifi- cation in heat stress. The simulations carried out for Heat-related mortality and morbidity will increase this report indicate that heat hazards will increase sig- if nothing changes. Loss of life during a heatwave nificantly in the coming decades, with the magnitude period is caused by both direct (heatstroke) and indi- of the increase depending on the global emissions rect (exacerbation of preexisting conditions) effects, scenario. Under a high global emission scenario, res- with the latter being far more common than the for- idents of densely built neighborhoods in three “deep mer. A review of pathophysiological pathways shows dive” cities (Chennai, Lucknow, Surat) will experience at least 27 pathways linking heatwaves to deaths.33 between 30 and 50 percent more extremely hot days Heat-related excess deaths in Chennai, Surat, and and nights by 2050 than at present. Figure 2.7 depicts Lucknow are already estimated at between 0.2 to 0.4 the expected change in the number of hot nights in per 1,000 people annually, with the heat-related excess the three cities.31 In Surat, the number of hot nights is mortality rate approximately 20 percent higher for expected to rise from 65 percent of nights per year to people aged 70 or above. The modeling carried out 82 percent. In the most densely built neighborhoods, for this report estimates a 30 percent increase in the the frequency of hot nights will be even higher, with crude death rate for Chennai and Surat by 2050 under nocturnal temperatures rarely falling below 25°C. a low-emissions scenario and a 38 percent increase Figure 2.7 also shows the number of hours per year for Lucknow. As shown in Figure 2.8, the modeling at high heat stress across all three cities. At present, estimates a rise of more than 50 percent for each city across all three cities, 25 percent of working hours per under a high-emissions scenario. FIGURE 2.6 Heat Exposure for 10 Largest Cities [billion person-hours per year at 30°C Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) or hotter] 3.0 2.0 1983–1990 2010-2016 1.0 0.0 Pune Hyderabad Surat Lucknow Varanasi Ahmedabad Chennai Mumbai New Delhi Kolkata Source: World Bank Staff calculations using UHE-Daily dataset (Tuholske et al 2021). 30 Dangerously hot conditions are defined as days where maximum heat stress exceeds 30°C on the WBGT scale. 31 Nights where temperature do not fall below 25°C. 32 Defined as 7 a.m.-6 p.m. 33 Mora, C., Counsell, C. W., Bielecki, C. R., & Louis, L. V. (2017). Twenty-Seven Ways a Heat Wave Can Kill You:: Deadly Heat in the Era of Climate Change. Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes, 10 (11), e004233. 37 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA FIGURE 2.7 Change in Key Heat Stress Metrics for Selected Cities (a) The Expected Number of Hot Nights per Year (b) The Number of Hours Per Year with Very High Heat Stressa Where Minimum Temperatures Will Exceed 25°C Across all three cities Tropical nights as percent of all nights in the year 1800 80 1600 1400 70 1200 60 1000 50 800 600 40 Chennai Surat Lucknow Present 2050 - low emissions 2050 - high emissions scenario scenario Present 2050 - low emissions 2050 - high emissions scenario scenario Source: World Bank staff calculations based on UrbClim (De Ridder, et al., 2015). Note: a When WBGTs exceed 30°C. The modeling was performed for low and high global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for the UN IPCC. The low global emissions scenario is SSP 1-1.9 and the high global emissions scenario is SSP3-7.0. Extreme heat disproportionately affects the temperatures than wealthier neighborhoods because urban poor. Past studies show that low-income of a greater prevalence of heat-trapping materials, neighborhoods have higher day and night-time air higher building density, and less vegetation, shade, FIGURE 2.8 Heat and Mortality in Indian Cities (a) Heat-Mortality Relationship for India (b) Projected Heat-Related Deaths (Annual deaths per 10,000 People) 1.0 2.0 0.8 1.5 0.6 OR Optimal Temperature 0.4 1.0 15% % deaths 10% 0.2 5% 0% 0.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Lucknow Chennai Surat Relative risk due to HOT temperatures Present 2050 - low emissions 2050 - high emissions scenario scenario Relative risk due to COLD temperatures Source: Source: Fu et al, 2018. Source: World Bank staff simulations. Note: The odds ratio (OR) describes the ratio of excess mortality compared to the mortality rate prevailing at the optimal temperature. 38 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs and wind-flow.34 Moreover, low-income households percent of those surveyed required at least one hospi- face greater indoor heat exposure and lower capac- talization.35 UrbClim modeling shows a likely increase ity to cope during heatwaves due to heat-promoting in exposure to dangerous heat at work as defined by building structures, lower ownership of fans and air the International Organization for Standardization conditioning units, lower access to drinking water and (ISO) heat safety thresholds. health services, and greater representation among heat-exposed occupations such as manual work. This modeling suggests that in Surat, Chennai, and Infants and people over 75 in low-income households Lucknow, under a low-emissions scenario, approxi- are particularly susceptible to heat waves. High vul- mately one-fifth of working hours throughout the year nerability and high exposure to extreme heat tend will exceed the safe heat stress threshold for high-ex- to co-occur in Indian cities. Individuals with char- ertion occupations like construction and manual acteristics that make them more likely to fall ill or labor by 2050. Under a high-emissions scenario, this die during heatwaves tend to live in locations where number would increase by approximately 30 percent average temperatures are higher, most notably infor- for Chennai and Lucknow and 50 percent for Surat. mal settlements. The model suggests that the value of working hours Hotter conditions will make work in heat-exposed in Chennai that would be lost because extreme heat sectors dangerous for more of the year, reduc- puts workers in danger is approximately $1.9 billion, ing economic output. A 2013 study of hot-season or 2.3 percent of the city’s GDP. The value of lost impacts in Ahmedabad’s construction sector found working hours would increase by 54 percent under a that workers lost an average of 11 days of work (and high-emissions scenario, putting approximately 3.2 consequently income) due to extreme heat, and 10 percent of the city’s GDP at risk (see Figure 2.9). FIGURE 2.9 Expected Economic Output Loss Due to Labor Productivity Effects Under Climate Scenarios (a) Percent of city GDP lost (b) Earnings lost in billions of US dollars 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 Lucknow Chennai Surat Lucknow Chennai Surat Present 2050 - low emissions scenario 2050 - high emissions scenario Source: World Bank staff simulations. 34 See WRI (2023). The future of extreme heat in cities: What we know and what we don’t. Accessible from: https://www.wri.org/insights/future-extreme- heat-cities-data. Also see: Chakraborty, et al (2023). Residential segregation and outdoor urban moist heat stress disparities in the United States. Accessible from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590332223002506?via%3Dihub. 35 “Rising temperatures, deadly threat: recommendations for Ahmedabad’s government officials.” NRDC Briefings Series, 2013. Available at: www.nrdc. org/international/india/extremeheat-preparedness/files/india-heat-government-officials-IB. pdf). 39 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Growth in demand for cooling will place strain on Finally, the impact of heat on critical infrastruc- the power sector but also create economic oppor- ture and networks may cause cascading failures tunities. With growth in both urban populations and that affect multiple sectors. For instance, extreme temperatures, the demand for cooling to keep people heat may lead to an electricity distribution network within safe temperature zones—including in homes, failure, causing a series of secondary effects like workplaces, and during transportation journeys—will stranded trains, compromised safety measures at increase. Aggregate nationwide cooling demand railway crossings, delays in getting to work, hospitals measured in tonnage of refrigeration is projected to with a lack of network power, and failing information rise eightfold by the late 2030s against a present-day and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure. baseline. This will be driven by an 11-fold increase Because of the thermal properties of steel, which in space-cooling demand as well as smaller rises in expands and buckles when air temperatures exceed cooling demand for agricultural cold-chain, refriger- 36°C, Indian urban transport systems have already ation, and transport air-conditioning.36 faced significant delays during heatwaves due to the buckling of railway tracks. The number of days With high temperatures posing an increasingly critical per year during which trains cannot safely operate is threat to human health, the power sector will face ris- projected to increase by 30 percent by 2050 in Surat. ing challenges in meeting cooling energy demand. The There will clearly be a need to adapt urban transpor- sector will have to reduce outages, which will increas- tation equipment, systems design, and operations ingly pose dangers to human life during peak tempera- for future heat extremes (see Figure 2.10). Cascading tures. It will also have to meet the cooling demand of infrastructure failures are challenging to predict due poorer and marginalized citizens. However, the growth to complex interdependencies, but their associated in demand for cooling services across the built envi- costs, such as productivity loss and service interrup- ronment, agricultural supply chains, and transporta- tion, can be significant. tion also presents significant economic opportunities that can promote job creation and economic growth. FIGURE 2.10 Surat—Hours Per Year with Temperatures Exceeding Safe Operating Threshold for Railway Networksa Present SSP 370-2050 21.35 21.35 21.30 21.30 21.25 21.25 21.20 21.20 21.15 21.15 21.10 21.10 21.05 21.05 72.70 72.75 72.80 72.88 72.90 72.95 73.00 72.70 72.75 72.80 72.88 72.90 72.95 73.00 1750 2000 2250 2500 2750 3000 3250 3500 3750 Hours Source: World Bank staff simulations based on UrbCim model. Note: a Present day versus 2050; train routes are denoted by black lines. 36 Cell, O. "India cooling action plan." New Delhi: Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change, Government of India, 2019. Available at: http://www. ozonecell. com/viewsection.jsp. 40 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs 2.3 PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT TOOLS Climate and Disaster Risk Assessment for Impact- FOR URBAN RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION based and Inclusive Warning, Preparedness, and Risk Reduction This section focuses on key planning and manage- ment tools that municipalities can use to improve Climate adaptation measures need to be based on urban adaptation and resilience capacity. The sec- dynamic risk profiles of specific urban areas. Many tion addresses: (i) municipal capacity, systems, and Indian cities are already undertaking risk assess- planning; (ii) climate and disaster risk assessment; ment. These need to be mainstreamed into landuse (iii) warning and response systems; (iv) integrated planning approaches and updated regularly. This urban flood risk management; and (v) urban heat will help improve risk sensitive urban planning and adaptation and preparedness. avoid development patterns that increase exposure to flooding or other disaster risks. Risk classifica- Municipal Capacity, Systems, and Pro-poor tions should be a function of relative historical urban Planning flood risk and relative increases in risk. National and state strategies for urban resilience, as well as city- Local government capacity and systems improve- level adaptation plans, need to be developed based ments are at the heart of achieving effective urban on these risk profiles. At the state and city levels, adaptation. Many Indian cities are already incorpo- risk information can help with adaptation plans to rating measures to improve urban resilience, but the withstand and recover from the impacts of specific needs are huge and more actions are required. One hazards. This includes, for instance, flood zoning and key area of focus for urban adaptation is to support contingency plans to deal with heatwaves. the most vulnerable. Urban poverty reduction and adaptation to climate change are closely interlinked. Risk information will help identify robust and inte- Simulations were conducted to evaluate the impacts grated adaptation measures covering both green of climate change on people’s welfare at a household and grey infrastructure rather than standalone level. While aggregate impacts are highly uncertain, approaches. For example, assessment of the spe- poorer people will be disproportionally impacted by cific risks of urban flooding can help identify a combi- climate change, with the bottom 20 percent of the nation of measures including nature-based solutions population experiencing climate change losses that (NbS) and “sponge city” approaches, as well as the are 70 percent larger than the top 20 percent.37 This is provision, retrofitting, and improved maintenance of particularly true of impacts from disasters, with poor key infrastructure services such as urban drainage, people and households exhibiting much lower socio- SWM, and stormwater management systems. Urban economic resilience and thus much higher losses in heat impacts can similarly be addressed through a terms of well-being while rich households bear most combination of green and grey approaches such as of the losses in absolute monetary terms. For example, increasing urban greening, shifting work hours for the bottom 20 percent is found to experience 60 per- workers, introducing cool roofs, and the development cent higher well-being losses due to a 100-year flood of early warning systems. The latter two interventions compared with the average population. This vulnera- have particularly high cost-benefit ratios. Cities need bility has many causes including poorer people’s loca- to prioritize vulnerable neighborhoods based on risk tion making them more exposed and socioeconomic information when implementing these measures to characteristics such as occupation, share of expen- improve the resilience of areas and populations most ditures on food, and access to health care, financial susceptible to climate stressors. instruments, or social protection. 37 Staff calculations based on the ShockWaves microsimulation methodology using household consumption microdata from the Consumption Pyramid Household Survey, World Bank CCKP, Sartori, et al., 2016 (for labor productivity), Colon-Gonzalez et al 2022 (for health), and IFPRI IMPACT model 2017 (for agriculture). 41 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Cities can also improve adaptation through bet- » Local multi-hazard risk assessment: Systematically ter local planning based on risk information. Better invest in dynamic and multi-hazard local risk assess- land use planning and regulations based on regularly ment (for key hazards such as flooding, landslides, fire, updated risk maps can avoid unplanned growth and etc.) that can be combined with hydrometeorological steer urban expansion to safer areas. Urban resil- data to develop impact-based, multi-hazard warning. ience planning should embed risk reduction into urban » Emergency response capacity: Train and equip expansion projects and promote NbS, natural hydrolog- professionals such as ambulance and fire brigades ical systems, and urban tree canopy coverage. Further, for emergency response. cities should adjust not only where and what they build » Community preparedness: but also, crucially, the way in which they build. Building standards and codes need to be improved and better (i) Understand community behavior and barriers, enforced. Cities should, for example, promote the use especially the most marginalized and vulnera- ble communities. of natural ventilation, impervious surfaces, and con- (ii) Involve communities in identifying safe areas struction of flood-resistant homes using local mate- and shelters. rials. Provisions should be incorporated into relevant (iii) Develop networks of volunteers and first legal and regulatory frameworks. responders. Impact-based and Inclusive Warning and (iv) Undertake regular drills in high-risk areas. Response Systems In 2013, a group of researchers experimented with Urgent attention is needed to strengthen urban community-based flood early warning systems in early warning and response systems to save lives 25 vulnerable communities along the Singora and and valuable assets. The one top priority where Jiadhal rivers. The experiment showed that these Indian cities can save lives and assets from rising systems not only gave residents more lead time to climate and disaster impacts is to invest more in protect their lives and assets, but also empowered the entire value chain of early warning and response communities to take ownership of the systems. The systems. This would include improving impact-based same could be done in urban areas to allow for the and inclusive multi-hazard warning and emergency strengthening of critical infrastructure and for timely response systems; improving last-mile connectivity evacuation in case of need: and community preparedness; developing emer- gency response and recovery systems; and ensuring » Post-disaster response and recovery: Have safety nets for poor and low-income households. resources and mechanisms in place to support quick post-disaster response. There is also an opportunity In India, there is already an effective early warning to equip critical community resources (e.g., schools system in place for tsunamis and cyclones. Among and hospitals) with stronger disaster protection and many success stories, 1.55 million coastal residents turn them into resilience hubs in times of need. in Odisha were evacuated during Cyclone Fani in 2019 » Access to safety nets: Have the provision of social thanks to an early warning system developed under the protection system including cash transfers, in-kind National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project I. Many Indian assistance, and public works program to protect cities have also developed flood or heat action plans and support the most vulnerable and poor popula- and have made progress toward functioning early tion especially in time of crisis. warning and response systems. Cities can build on the » Institutional strengthening: Have a dedicated improvements in national flood forecasting and warn- local government cell with skilled staff and immedi- ing to develop inclusive and impact-based warning ate access to emergency funds. Generally, district and response systems. The following are the key areas and local governments will play the key coordinat- to focus on in the development of these systems: ing role in the warning period and after. 42 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management avoiding development patterns that increase flood risks. Integrated urban flood risk manage- Now is the time to plan and prevent major flood ment at national and state levels with sustainable impacts in Indian cities. With India’s urban population stormwater management at city level is recom- projected to double to 951 million by 2050 and reach mended. Integrated management would include: 1.1 billion by 2070, a total of 45,000 km2 of new urban (a) regulation to control the flood flow increase due areas may be added between 2023 and 2050, and as to expansion of new urban areas; (b) zoning of flu- much as 75,000 sq. km between 2023 and 2070. If not vial flood areas based on flood risk maps and urban managed well, this massive increase in the urban area development zoning; (c) preparation of stormwater will substantially increase flood impacts while also plans for the city using structural solutions in major leading to contamination of water resources and water drainage; and (d) creation or improvement of a local supply and sanitation networks, leading to consequent stormwater institution to implement all the mea- health hazards and reduced quality of life. Examples sures and to develop operation and maintenance from countries such as Brazil, which have gone through of the stormwater infrastructure, with a revenue a similar urban transition (see Box 2.3), show that it is stream to cover the costs. critical to carefully manage the transition and invest early on in integrated flood risk management systems. Investment needs will depend upon the specific risk profile of the urban areas and on the interventions Strategies to cope with urban flooding should chosen. A conservative estimate of the costs of cov- be based on the local risk profile of urban areas, ering 60 percent of high-risk cities nationwide over BOX 2.3 Moving Toward Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management Solutions in Brazil Over half a century, Brazil went through a major urban transition with the urban population increasing from 37 per- cent of the total in 1950 to 81 percent in 2000. During this time, cities grew in area but with scant investment in urban infrastructure and with unplanned informal settlements springing up on city fringes. This led to higher flood- ing impacts, contamination of water sources and supply, and water scarcity. Earlier approaches to managing river basins and floods that had worked at lower population levels had to be drastically changed, moving from mostly structural measures such as channels to more integrated solutions that combined both structural and nonstructural measures such as detention ponds, flood zoning, and storm water regulations. For example, in São Paulo, until the 1980s the main flood management solution was to construct channels. This was not only a costly method, but it also increased the flooding risk. It changed after 1980s when 42 people drowned in floods in Belo Horizonte, and the municipality adopted a new flood resilience solution based on developing retention ponds. However, the use of these ponds in major drainage systems requires better integration with sanitation ser- vices, because the ponds can deteriorate with inflows of sewage and garbage. Now many Brazilian cities have moved toward integrated flood risk management with sustainable stormwater management. Another example is from the city of Porto Alegre in Brazil which relies on three lines of actions: (a) regulations to control flood flow increase due to urbanization from new urban areas. All new urban constructions are regulated by storm water regulation to reduce or avoid flood damages of approximately $3 million/year; (b) stormwater plan developed for each urban watershed basin (26) and regulated through provision of detention ponds and other structural and non-structural measures; and (c) a storm water utility company was established to implement actions (a) and (b). Source: Tucci, Carlos E.M. “Flood Control and Urban Drainage Management in Brazil.” Waterlines 20, no. 4 (2002): 6–8. http://www.jstor.org/ stable/24680741. Tucci, Carlos E.M. “Urban Drainage Plan in Brazil”. Accessed from https://www.mpf.mp.br/atuacao-tematica/ccr4/importacao/institucional/ grupos-de-trabalho/encerrados/residuos/documentos-diversos/outros_documentos_tecnicos/curso-gestao-do-terrimorio-e-manejo-integra- do-das-aguas-urbanas/URBRAZIL.pdf 43 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA the next 15 years could be $150 billion. This invest- expected damages from urban fluvial, coastal, and ment is essential; considering expected annual flood pluvial floods), the benefit-to-cost ratio is very high. damages of $850 billion by 2050 (cumulative annual Box 2.4 sets out recommendations for preparing BOX 2.4 Investing in National, State, and Local Strategies and Action Plans to Better Manage Urban Flooding (i) National and State Urban Flood Management Policies and Action Plans » Review legal and urban management policies to improve integrated development approaches and the multi-sec- toral coordination that is necessary for urban flood risk management. » Offer technical support from national and regional government institutions to municipalities in improving urban flood management, including preparation of manuals and terms of reference, and support to management of contracts. » Develop economic instruments to finance public and private investment based on the adopted strategies at national, regional, and local levels. » Undertake capacity-building programs about managing flood control systems based on the principles and prac- tice of sustainable flood management. The target audience includes central and regional institutions, municipal institutions, and public and private professionals. » Develop a program of fluvial flood management comprising: (i) a national strategy for fluvial floods considering water and environment legislation and management and (ii) assessments and solutions for flood management in major river systems. » Regulate stormwater management at the city level to comply with external and internal development. The regula- tory system should be managed by the agencies responsible for sanitation or, depending on the local institutional setup, by another competent agency. (ii) Development of Local Prevention Actions Based on Risk Profiles Develop specific short-, medium-, and long-term action plans with budgets to manage existing urban flood impacts and to support sustainable solutions for urban expansion that minimize future impacts. The plans should cover: » Overall assessment of urban flood impacts, flood risk mapping, and development of local impact-based flood warning and response systems. » Development of local institutional and technical measures to prevent or manage the impacts by integrating urban water solutions. » Develop specific case studies and projects to assess achievements and win champions. » Improve urban regulation together with economic incentives to improve urban run-off and pursue flood-proof development in flood zones, wetlands, and around water bodies and drains. » Develop standards and terms of reference for urban stormwater master plans. (iii) Potential Investment Needs » Short term: A six-month strategy and action-planning exercise to assess and improve urban flood management regulations at the central and state levels. Start with some select cities to implement prevention measures. The tentative budgetary requirement is about $50 million over five years. » Medium term: Over 5–10 years, support the implementation of local flood risk management plans for more select high-risk cities. An estimated $1–5 billion will be needed for this phase. » Long term: Within 15 years, at least 60 percent of the cities can be covered by urban flood risk mitigation. The overall costs of investments are about $150 billion. The cost to cover the entire Indian urban population would be considerably higher. These estimates are based on existing urban areas and are conservative. Source: World Bank Staff estimates. 44 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs Sabarmati River in Ahmedabad, Gujarat © Siddharaj Solanki. The Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation, Gujarat formed a Special Purpose Vehicle, the Sabarmati Riverfront Development Corporation Limited, which has supported river front development and urban flood resilience activities. national, state, and local urban flood risk mitigation » Where current flood risk is low, but are likely to policies, action plans, and investment strategies. face higher flood risk in future (for example due to rapid settlement expansion in areas prone to Research undertaken for this report included a flooding), improve flood preparedness and nature- risk classification system to identify priority areas based solutions such as green areas or parks that for urban flood risk reduction, as well as to pre- can absorb excess flood water pare intervention strategies. The risk classification is based on two indicators: (i) relative urban pluvial » Where current flood risk is low and is likely to stay flood risk in 2020 and (ii) the change in urban plu- low in future, strengthen urban infrastructure and vial flood risk between 2000 and 2020. Four basic improve maintenance including for urban drain- strategies were identified based on the level of risk age system (so blocked drains don’t lead to urban matched with the rate of change: flooding) » Where the current flood risk is high, but rate of » Where the current flood risk is high, and future risk change in risk is low (i.e. cities are not expanding will be even higher, urgently invest in integrated in high-risk areas), invest in strengthening flood urban flood risk management including flood risk preparedness and retrofitting of flood protection sensitive planning (so new settlements are not in systems flood prone areas), strengthen flood preparedness 45 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA through early warning and response, and take pro- Figure 2.11 shows where these strategies would tection measures for exposed buildings and critical apply. infrastructure. FIGURE 2.11 Priority Urban Pluvial Flood Strategies 32 28 26 30 24 28 LATITUDE 22 26 20 24 18 22 16 20 14 18 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 22 Urban Flood Resilience Priority 20 Strengthen flood preparedness and retrofitting of protection systems Improve flood preparedness and nature- 18 based solutions Improve flood risk sensitive planning, LATITUDE preparedness, and protection 16 Strengthen urban infrastucture including drainage 14 Mix of strategies 12 City Population in 2015 10 1 5 10 25 50 8 Million people 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 LONGITUDE Source: World Bank staff simulations based on Fathom and JRC-HSL data (see methodology and data used in Box 2.2). 46 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs The total adaptation benefits for a relatively Urban Heat Adaptation and Preparedness achievable 10-year plan to protect against pluvial The introduction of Heat Action Plans (HAPs) in flooding range from $10 billion to $45 billion (see Indian cities has saved lives and reduced loss of eco- Figure 2.12)—but a holistic approach is needed to nomic output, but implementation of heat mitigation deal with residual risks. Even under a conservative actions remains limited across most urban areas. cost-benefit ratio of one, large investment needs are Ahmedabad’s pioneering HAP—which links early warn- required to cope with the increasing pluvial flood risk ing systems with actions to protect vulnerable groups over the next 30–50 years. More importantly, resid- during heatwaves— is credited with averting around ual risks remain, which are a magnitude of several 1,200 deaths per year in the city during the five years times greater than the present-day risks. Investing in following its introduction in 2013 (Hess, et al., 2018). flood protection alone is not sufficient and needs to With GoI support, HAPs are being rolled out country- be supplemented with additional measures to reduce wide, with more than 100 local HAPs now in place. residual risk, such as flood-proofing the housing stock, emergency management, and insurance or Stronger implementation of heat mitigation other financial instruments. A holistic approach is actions across Indian cities would yield major required for India to cope with the growing pluvial benefits. Modeling work conducted for this report flood risk. simulated the costs and benefits of two alternative FIGURE 2.12 Net Benefits of Adaptation and Residual Risk SSP1-RCP2.6 SSP2-RCP4.5 SSP3-RCP7.0 SSP5-RCP8.5 30 30 30 30 RESIDUAL RISK (BILLION USD/YR) 25 25 25 25 20 20 20 20 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 2 10 20 30 40 50 2 10 20 30 40 50 2 10 20 30 40 50 2 10 20 30 40 50 FUTURE PROTECTION STANDARD (YR) Present 2050 2070 120 120 120 120 NET RISK BENEFIT (BILLION USD) 100 100 100 100 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 2 10 20 30 40 50 2 10 20 30 40 50 2 10 20 30 40 50 2 10 20 30 40 50 FUTURE PROTECTION STANDARD (YR) 30 years 50 years Source: World Bank staff simulations based on Fathom and JRC-HSL data (see methodology in Box 2.2). Note: The top row shows the residual risk that remains at the end of the project lifetime under the various protection standards. The bottom row shows the net accrued (discounted) benefit over the lifetime of the project, with the range showing the uncertainty with respect to the discount rate used (6 vs. 10 percent). 47 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA packages of actions—a medium-ambition package heatwave early warning systems across the 50 larg- and a high-ambition package—to deal with urban est cities in India could avert some 50,000-130,000 heat impacts across all large Indian cities by 2050 heat-related deaths per year by 2050.40 (see Table 2.2).38 The medium-ambition package includes: (i) increasing urban tree canopy coverage Investments in urban heat mitigation have high by 10 percent, (ii) providing heatwave early warning benefit-cost ratios and other advantages. For systems, (iii) replacing 12.5 percent of roofs with cool urban greening, the benefit–cost ratio of 1.2:1 (see roofs, and (iv) shifting work hours for 25 percent of Figure 2.14) indicates that every dollar spent on tree workers. Implementing the package could increase planting yields a positive return on investment as the national GDP by 0.2 percent by 2050. The high- reduction in extreme heat exposure and brings health ambition package involves: (i) a 30 percent increase and productivity impacts. Cool roof interventions in tree cover; (ii) providing heatwave early warning show a higher benefit–cost ratio (typically greater systems; (iii) 25 percent of roofs replaced by cool than 5:1) by reducing indoor heat exposure. Heat early roofs; and (iv) shifting work hours for 50 percent of warning systems show the highest benefit–cost ratio workers.39 This could yield a 0.4 percent GDP increase (typically greater than 20:1), reflecting their efficacy (see Figure 2.13). Implementing urban greening and in reducing adverse health and productivity impacts TABLE 2.2 City Heat Mitigation Actions— Intervention Packages and Impact Valuation Approach Category of intervention ‘Medium ambition’ package ‘High ambition’ package Impacts quantified Urban greening Increase tree cover by 10 percent Increase tree cover by 30 Averted mortality from current baseline by 2050 percent from current baseline Averted labor productivity loss by 2050 Heatwave early warnings Introduce heatwave early Introduce heatwave early Averted mortality warnings (medium level of warnings (medium level of efficacy) reducing heat-related efficacy) reducing heat-related excess mortality by 20 percent excess mortality by 40 percent Working hours shift and Shift working hours towards early Shift working hours towards early Averted labor productivity loss protection for outdoor as morning and late afternoon for morning and late afternoon for well as indoor workers 25 percent of outdoor heat- 50 percent of outdoor heat- exposed workers exposed workers Cool roofs program Introduce cool roofs on 12.5 Introduce cool roofs on 25 Avoided cost from building (homes/workplaces/ percent of the total roof area of percent of the total roof area of cooling public buildings) the city the city Source: World Bank staff (2024). Note: The analysis above does not include cost for acquiring costly urban land for urban greenery interventions. Many Indian cities have a very high price for real estate, especially in dense urban centers. It is assumed that greenery interventions can be supported on already available public land, and on voluntary basis in privately owned land. 38 Benefits of urban greening, heat early warning systems, and cool roof interventions were quantified based on heat-mortality relationships derived from local statistics and on heat-labor productivity relationships from scientific literature. Reduced heat exposure due to greening and cool roofs was calculated using a city-scale climate modelling framework; and the cost of mitigation options was estimated based on local and international unit costs. 39 The impact of heat mitigation actions on national GDP is based on modeling conducted for this report. The model examined labor productivity and health channels. For labor productivity, the model applied damage curves derived from the literature (Kjellstrom et al, 2018). For health channels, the model applied a Value of Life Years approach. See Jones, Nicholas; Tiwari, Asmita; Kikutake, Natsuko; Takacs, Sacha; Souverijns, Niels. 2024. Prioritizing Heat Mitigation Actions in Indian Cities: A Cost-Benefit Analysis under Climate Change Scenarios. Policy Research Working Paper; 10960. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/e88a4181-dfe9-4707-9b31-ac94c5dd145a. 40 Note that heat-related deaths are assumed to amount to 8 lost life years. 48 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs FIGURE 2.13 GDP Gain Due to Different Heat Stress Adaptation Measuresa (a) GDP gain due to heat stress adaptation (b) Invested mortality due to heat stress adaptation EXCESS MORTALITY PER 1,000 RESIDENTS 0.45 ANNUAL EXPECTED HEAT-RELATED 0.7 0.40 0.6 0.35 0.5 0.30 0.4 % OF GDP 0.25 0.3 0.20 0.15 0.2 0.10 0.1 0.05 0.0 0.0 Medium ambition High ambition Medium ambition High ambition Early warning system Cool roofs Shifting working hours Urban greening Early warning system Total Urban greening Total Source: World Bank staff calculations (2024). Note: a all calculations are for 2050 under a high-emission scenario, SSP3-7.0. FIGURE 2.14 Benefit–Cost Ratios of Heat Stress Adaptation Measures in Indian Citiesa 1:1 5:1 10:1 20:1 50:1 More Shift in working hours (early morning & late afternoon) Urban Greening Heat early warning system Cool roofs Source: World Bank staff calculations (2024). Note: a The cost of interventions was estimated based on local and international unit costs. Benefits were estimated through the economic value of health and labor productivity gains of each intervention by 2050 under the SSP3-7.0 climate scenario. The bars illustrate the range of expected bene- fit-cost ratios for four categories of heat mitigation interventions in Indian cities; the dark lines indicate the mean expected benefit-cost ratio for the intervention type. together with their low marginal cost of implementa- 2.4 URBAN HOUSING ADAPTATION tion.41 This suggests that cities would be well advised The housing sector in India is very vulnerable to to prioritize investing in tree planting, cool roofs and heat-health early warning systems. Investments in a climate risks and impacts due to its high expo- greener city also yield co-benefits, including job cre- sure, particularly to flooding, extreme heat, ation, reduction of air pollution and flooding, higher cyclones, and landslides. The vulnerability of the property values, and improvements to the comfort existing housing stock to climate risks stems from and mental health of residents. the spread of unplanned settlements in high-risk 41 This note assumes that working hours can be shifted from midday to early morning and late evening at zero cost. This reflects the kind of measures being incorporated in Heat Action Plans. For example labor and employers’ organizations in heat-exposed sectors like construction agree to stop work from 12pm-4pm on days when a ‘red’ alert is issued, instead shifting work to morning/evening hours. 49 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA BOX 2.5 Income and Exposure to Select Climate Risks A 2021 study conducted by the Tamil Nadu Urban Habitat Development Board (TNUHDB) in Chennai found that, the poorer households are, the more vulnerable they are to flooding and heat risks. The survey covered approximately 3,000 poor urban households registered with TNUHDB. As shown in the chart, households with monthly incomes below Rs. 15,000 experienced more flooding or extreme heat events than better-off households. 1200 1084 35 1000 29 30 800 25 20 600 15 400 287 10 200 6 89 5 0 1 0 Upto 15,000 15,001-30,000 above 30,000 HOUSEHOLD MONTHLY INCOME Flood Heat zones, overcrowding, inadequate basic services, and A significant opportunity is at hand to ensure sometimes low-quality building materials and sub- development of climate resilient and green hous- standard construction. As of 2020, it was estimated ing because more than half of the housing stock that nearly half of India’s urban population lived in needed by 2070 in Indian cities is yet to be added. informal settlements,42 with many of these located Between 2022 and 2070, over 144 million dwelling in flood-prone areas. According to the 2011 Census, units will be needed in India, more than doubling the one-quarter of dwellings in informal settlements had existing housing stock.44 How these housing units metal or asbestos roofs, making them more sus- will be planned, located, designed, constructed, and ceptible to hazards like extreme heat.43 Inhabitants maintained will have profound impacts on the resil- of these informal settlements are overwhelmingly ience to climate-related risks for Indian cities and low-income households with few alternative housing their inhabitants. Figure 2.15 outlines the projected options and are more vulnerable to climate disaster number of households likely to require housing in risks than other groups (see Box 2.5 and Box 2.6). 2022, 2050, and 2070 in selected cities.45 At the extreme, climate-induced events like floods, droughts, coastal erosion, and sea-level rise may India’s policy and regulatory frameworks on cli- force people to migrate to other areas, contributing mate adaptation and urban housing did not con- to increased demand for housing in regions that may verge until very recently, as the two agendas are already be facing housing shortages. typically managed by separate line ministries/ 42 UN-Habitat. Data retrieved from World Bank DataBank at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS?locations=IN. 43 Mahadevia, et al., 2020. Available at: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0975425320906249#:~:text=4%20Of%20these%20urban%20 slum,%2C%20bamboo%2C%20mud%20and%20plastic. 44 The projected quantities of housing need in the five selected cities (Chennai, Indore, New Delhi, Surat and Thiruvananthapuram) and the whole country for 2020, 2050 and 2070 were estimated based on: a) projection of urban population in each city using Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) calibrated from Census data between 1961 and 2011; b) average size of a typical housing units in each of the eight types of housing (three income groups of low- income, mid-income, and high-income, interacted with landed-houses, mid-rise apartments, and high-rise apartments, and excluding high-income mid-rise apartments); and c) number of households (i.e. housing units) in each income group based on urban population projection and average household size. 45 Ibid 50 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs BOX 2.6 Informal Settlements with High Vulnerability to Flood Risks in Chennai, Tamil Nadu Chennai, the capital of the state of Tamil Nadu, is India’s fourth largest city located on the southeast coast by the Bay of Bengal. Floods have historically affected Chennai due to a combination of reasons, including: (a) heavy rainfall during the monsoon months; (b) post-monsoon cyclones and storm surges near the Bay of Bengal; and (c) tsunamis from the Indian Ocean that have inundated coastal communities. In the past two decades, the city has suffered two severe floods: (1) the 2004 Indian Ocean Mega Tsunami with waves up to 30 meters high, which affected 73,000 people and damaged 17,000 houses in Chennai; and (2) the 2015 floods, which caused 400 deaths and an economic loss of over $2 billion. The city has been expanding rapidly in the past decades and unplanned growth and informal set- tlements have taken place in areas unsuitable for housing development. These informal settlements (including slums both officially notified and not yet notified by government) typically have higher density than average, are built with lower-quality materials and roofing, and lack sufficient access to basic infrastructure and services, such as storm- water drainage, sewerage, or sanitation. As a result, inhabitants of these informal settlements are at the highest risk and most vulnerable to urban floods and extreme heat. Since the 2015 floods, the city started marking flood-prone areas and identifying settlements that need to be relocated. Under the “Housing for All” program of the GoI, the Government of Tamil Nadu (GoTN) developed a long-term strategic plan, allocating Rs. 65,000 crores (USD $ 7.7 billion) to provide housing and infrastructure development for households currently living in slums in the city (TNUHDB, 2023). A recent study shows that more than two-fifths of the slum population would be inundated at the time of floods of a return period of five years, and three-fifths of all Chennai’s slums would be inundated by floods of a return period of 25 years. In the extreme case, when the city is hit by a flood of a return period of 100 years, it is estimated that nearly one million people, more than two-thirds of all those living in slums, would be affected (Chennai City Action Plan, 2023). agencies at all levels of government. India’s poverty alleviation to include resilience and resource National Housing and Habitat Policy, introduced in efficiency, including in low-income housing schemes. 2007 now includes a range of environmental factors including climate change. Housing programs and The current nexus between climate adaptation policies have gradually expanded their focus beyond needs and housing sector development within India’s policy and institutional framework spans 51 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA FIGURE 2.15 Projected Number of Households in Five Select Cities 7,990,453 6,704,167 6,311,213 4,948,905 4,215,517 3,024,169 2,500,000 1,910,224 1,324,675 1,212,054 997,763 918,440 801,743 542,977 521,505 CHENNAI DELHI INDORE SURAT THIRUVANANTHAPURAM 2022 2050 2070 Source: World Bank staff calculations (2023). different intervention levels. At the habitat (city of building bylaws has been challenging mainly or town) planning level, India’s National Mission on due to the need for coordinated actions by local Sustainable Habitat (NMSH) includes the thematic authorities.  There is a lack of state- and city-level area “Urban Planning, Green Cover, and Biodiversity,” technical capacity, especially as regards adapting which emphasizes integrated urban and regional existing codes and standards to different contexts planning approaches to climate-sensitive develop- and addressing vulnerabilities identified by climate ment and to preservation and rejuvenation of water change projections. Further, there is poor compli- bodies, green spaces, and eco-sensitive areas. At the ance with building bylaws. Few planning processes building level, there are several policies and building check compliance post-construction and even fewer codes issued by national agencies.46 Although the impose penalties for non-compliance. measures are largely focused on energy efficiency, some adaptation actions include, setting minimum Priorities for Action building envelope performance standards to limit Improve synergies and develop an integrated policy heat gains and heat loss. Several states have updated and regulatory framework for enhancing climate and adopted Building and Development Control Rules adaptation in the housing sector. It is important to address climate risks and enhance sustainability to aim for convergence of adaptation priorities and (see Table 2.3).47 There have also been initiatives at actions in the housing sector at both policy and pro- the community level. gram levels to ensure an integrated and effective approach. Moreover, the focus of policies, strategies, Where appropriate policies and regulations are in and regulations on climate resilience usually puts place, there have also been various implementa- more emphasis on mitigation measures and much tion challenges. For example, the implementation less on adaptation aspects. Hence there is a need to 46 These include Model Building Bylaws (2016), the National Building Code (2016), and the Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) for residential buildings, “Eco Niwas Samhita 2018.” 47 Meanwhile, many Indian cities have been supporting voluntary building sustainability standards through a wide range of nonfiscal incentives, including expedited building or zoning permits, expedited plan reviews, increased floor area ratio (FAR) and density bonuses, and permitted mixed-use development (World Bank 2015). 52 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs TABLE 2.3 Selected Building Regulations Addressing Climate Risks Adopted by Indian States/Cities Categories Restrictions and Requirements Rules and Regulations 1 Flood: Basements or cellars shall not be permitted in low-lying areas without adequate Odisha Development restrictions on drainage facilities. Basements shall not be allowed in flood-prone areas. Authority (Planning and construction Construction of basements or cellars may only be allowed by the Authority in Building Standards) Rules, of basements accordance with the provisions contained in the development plan applicable to 2020 or cellars the concerned area. 2 Flood: No land development or redevelopment shall be made or building shall be restrictions constructed on a plot liable to flood or on a slope forming an angle of more than Andhra Pradesh Building on buildings 45 degrees with the horizontal or on soil unsuitable for percolation or on an area Rules, 2017 constructed shown as floodable in any town planning scheme or in sandy beds, unless it is in flood-prone proved by the owner to the satisfaction of the Secretary that construction of areas such a building will not be dangerous or injurious to health and the site will not be subjected to flooding or erosion. 3 Floods and Maximum of 50 percent of the total open space, including marginal open spaces Gujarat Comprehensive heat: paved and common areas of a building unit, shall be paved. The remaining area shall General Development Control surfaces be permeable for rainwater percolation. At least 30 percent of the open spaces Regulations, 2017 (setback area) shall be pervious. Use of grass pavers, paver blocks with at least Karnataka Model Urban 50 percent openings, landscaping etc. would be considered as pervious surface. Building bye-laws The unpaved area shall be more than or equal to 20 percent of recreational open Andhra Pradesh Building spaces. Rules, 2017 Punjab Urban Planning and Development Building Rules, 2021 4 Green cover For a building unit with an area of 10,000 sq.m or more, an additional 6 percent Gujarat: Comprehensive area of the building unit shall be provided for thick plantation. This area shall be General Development exclusive of the required minimum margins and common plot. The types of trees Control Regulations, 2017 shall be selected such that they are shade-giving trees. Karnataka Model Urban A minimum of one tree for every 80 sq.m of land should be planted and Building bye-laws maintained. The existing trees will be counted for this purpose. Preference should be given to planting native species. Where trees need to be cut, compensatory plantation in the ratio of 1:3 shall be done and maintained. Source: Compiled by World Bank Staff (2023). strengthen the analytical underpinning and collect system; (iii) establish a good blue-green infrastruc- more concrete evidence on how the housing sector ture presence with an adequate open space system can integrate climate adaptation needs. for the city that is adapted to increasing climate risks of floods and heat waves; and (iv) develop a Mainstream adaptation planning and resilient invest- well-equipped emergency response and recovery ment planning at the habitat level. At the city level, system for disasters. At the neighborhood and com- it is imperative to prepare good resilience strategies munity development level, a range of infrastructural and resilience-informed city development plans to: and non-infrastructural measures and interventions (i) demarcate high-risk areas as no-build zones; (ii) should be integrated in development plans, including preserve eco-sensitive areas including those of crit- nature-based solutions for stormwater management, ical importance for the health of the environmental 53 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA adequate drainage and SWM infrastructure, and good State and city-level technical knowledge needs to access to emergency response facilities. be strengthened and continuously updated with the latest housing technologies and green design inno- Improve state and local capacity to effectively vations through capacity building and training. There implement bylaws, policies, and codes at the is also a need to regularly review and update existing building level. While several states have adopted updated building and development control rules to building codes and standards to better fit into differ- address climate risks and enhance sustainability (see ent climate and development contexts, and to better above), implementation and enforcement of these address climate vulnerabilities identified by climate rules has proved challenging due to lack of capac- change projections. Furthermore, robust mech- ity and of coordinated action by local authorities.  anisms are required to improve compliance with BOX 2.7 Mainstreaming Affordable Cool Roofs for the Urban Poor in India Among the techniques to promote climate resilience in the housing sector, cool roofs are one of the most cost- effective and easily accessible options. “Cool roofs” can be a passive design technique, such as the application of cool roof paints and/or certain reflective roof materials. These techniques can reduce solar heat gain absorbed by buildings, cooling the inside while limiting the energy consumption and CO2 emissions that cooling by air condition- ers and fans entails. » At the building level, effective cool roofs can reflect as much as 80 percent of the sunlight on a clear day, and a typical cool roof can bring down the indoor air temperature by around 3-5°C. Cool roofs also increase the durabil- ity of the roof itself by reducing thermal expansion and contraction. » At the city level, mainstreaming cool roofs on all types of buildings can diminish the UHI effect substantially, con- tributing to climate adaptation and mitigation. Cool roofs also help in mitigating climate change by reflecting back into space solar radiation that would otherwise be converted into infrared radiation and become trapped in the atmosphere, contributing to global warming. Given its population density, rapid growth in buildings, and tropical climate zone, India has a high potential for adopting cool roofs. Because cool roofs are cost-effective and easy to fit, they have considerable potential both for existing housing stock and for new housing, as well as for retrofitting to housing in informal settlements and so benefitting the urban poor. The India Cooling Action Plan 2019 (ICAP) promotes cool roofs, recommending them for low-income housing schemes such as the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (Urban) - Housing for All program. The ICAP proposes that the ener- gy-efficient building envelope guidelines of the Eco-Niwas Samhita (Energy Conservation Building Code- Residential) be enforced and that specific cool-roof programs receive government financial support. In response, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) of India is collaborating with many city and state governments to implement and mainstream cool roofs. For example, in Hyderabad, a cool roofs pilot in low-income housing communities is being implemented to demonstrate cost-effective solutions that can increase thermal comfort and provide health benefits. Also, with summer tempera- tures in Ahmedabad reaching 45-48 degree celcius, the 2017 Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan provides access to cool roofs for the city’s slum residents and the urban poor. The Mahila Housing Trust (MHT) in Ahmedabad, a grassroots NGO originally born from the Self-Employed Women’s Association, facilitates microfinance loans for cool roofs for informal settlers. Sources: Sustainable and Smart Space Cooling Coalition (2017). Thermal Comfort for All - Sustainable and Smart Space Cooling. New Delhi: Alliance for an Energy-Efficient Economy. Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change (2019). India Cooling Action Plan. New Delhi: Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230628-the-white-roofs-cooling-womens-homes-in-indian-slums. https://www.oneearth.org/in-ahmedabad-women-act-to-make-slums-climate-resilient-one-house-at-a-time/ 54 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs building bylaws, including mandatory plan compli- Even limited network exposure to flooding can ance checks and post-construction quality checks. result in drastic urban mobility disruptions. The study cited above analyzes nearly 1.2 million kilome- Raise awareness and provide training and incen- ters of road network in 28 Indian states and highlights tives among private sector players in the real estate the most vulnerable cities, as well as those remaining industry and end users of housing. While technological comparatively unaffected by hazardous floods. The innovations in green housing planning, design, and con- data and results of this study support a better under- struction are already mature and widespread, there still standing of flood risks to urban road networks and exists an information gap among key stakeholders in the mobility patterns in India, allowing identification and housing sector. For example, there is limited awareness prioritization of protection and resilience measures. of the potential of retrofitting in part because of lack of Figure 2.16 shows that even with only 10 or 20 percent knowledge of standards for building materials and of of the road network inundated, some cities can lose more than half their transport system because 50 per- construction techniques. Even planning professionals, cent of trips become impossible to complete. These architects and engineers may lack knowledge on how to results show that these indirect mobility impacts, improve climate adaptation through better design and such as failed trips, can far exceed the direct impacts construction. In these circumstances, the authorities of network exposure. should consider engaging research institutions, techni- cal associations, and professionals who have technical The vulnerabilities of urban transport networks know-how to provide training to private sector develop- vary, depending on their redundancy and structure, ers, architects, planners, engineers, and household end with some cities showing very high vulnerability. users. In cases where the implementation of climate Several cities have route failure rates of over 50 per- adaptation programs, policies, and strategies in the cent even for very frequent floods (return period of housing sector is largely voluntary, subsidy programs 5 years), including Tulsipur (Uttar Pradesh), Patna and non-monetary incentives (such as a “development (Bihar), Iltifatganj (Uttar Pradesh), Tirumakudalu density bonus”) could be adopted to increase participa- Narasipura (Karnataka), and Cumbum (Tamil Nadu). tion of the private sector and offset some of the initial For major floods (e.g., 1-in-100 year return period), investment costs for climate adaptation interventions almost all cities show high shares of route failure. in housing development. Among the cities with the highest share of failed routes in this extreme scenario are Tulsipur (Uttar Pradesh), Iltifatgani (Uttar Pradesh), Jatani (Odisha), 2.5 URBAN TRANSPORT ADAPTATION and Garhmuktesar. (Uttar Pradesh). More than one quarter of India’s urban roads— Priorities for Action 318,066 kilometers—are directly exposed to flood- Improve the maintenance of infrastructure assets, ing in the 1-in-100-year flood scenario (threshold including drainage systems and culverts. To of 20 centimeters) based on a recent study.48 The reduce flooding and persistent damage from flood- study also showed that more than 254,882 kilome- ing, maintenance of infrastructure systems is the ters of roads are exposed to flooding greater than most cost-effective solution. This is particularly the 30 centimeters. In fact, in some high-exposure cities case for roads, with high benefits from improving such as Ghorasahan (Bihar), Iltifatganj (Uttar Pradesh), the maintenance of drainage systems and culverts. and Golaghat (Assam), almost the entire road network Analyzing Organisation for Economic Cooperation could be affected in a 1-in-100-year flood. and Development (OECD) member countries, the 48 "Mobility and Resilience: A Global Assessment of Flood Impacts on Road Transportation Networks." World Bank, 2022. Available at: http://documents. worldbank.org/curated/en/099552305172228687/IDU0e38cb88d018d704a8e08a220c09ce9f1be91. 55 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA FIGURE 2.16 Network Exposure and Mobility—Road Network Inundation and Associated Mobility Disruptions in India 100 80 PERCENTAGE OF FAILED ROUTES (%) 60 45-DEGREE 40 SEPARATION LINE 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 PERCENTAGE OF ROAD INUNDATION (%) Source: Based on World Bank staff simulation building on Mobility and Resilience: A Global Assessment of Flood Impacts on Road available at: https:// documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099552305172228687/idu0e38cb88d018d704a8e0. World Bank’s Lifeline report on resilient infrastructure water drainage and the water storage capacity of shows that every additional $1 spent on road mainte- landscapes (Rahman, et al., 2021). nance saves on average $1.50 in new investments.49 Maintenance not only ensures that assets can with- Protect infrastructure assets through a combina- stand extreme events, but also that new investments tion of green (NbS) and grey infrastructure. Critical in road infrastructure can be reduced.50 infrastructure can be safeguarded with protective green and grey investments. Nature-based solutions Increase system redundancy. The resilience of infra- (NbS) like mangrove planting along coastlines can be structure needs to be evaluated at the system level, used instead of or in conjunction with grey infrastruc- not at the asset level. For instance, with increased ture solutions such as the hardening of shorelines. In road redundancy, roads that become impassible addition, NbS not only provides a cost-effective way of during floods can be replaced by alternative routes. flood protection but—in contrast to grey infrastructure If there is more than one route to reach a certain solutions—comes with other community benefits such location, flooding of a road has only limited impacts as improved water quality and habitat enhancement on the functionality of the total road network. This is for wildlife (Buckingham & Torossian, 2021). particularly important to ensure that critical infra- structure like hospitals and schools remain acces- Consider hazards and integrate hazard maps sible during a crisis or an extreme weather event. when planning new infrastructure investments. However, increasing road density needs to be eval- Planning for new investments should be accompa- uated and planned thoroughly in order not to impede nied by comprehensive hazard risk analysis to avoid 49 "Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity." World Bank, 2019. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31805. 50 High benefits also exist in water and energy, for instance when forest and vegetation maintenance prevent high wind damage to electricity transmission lines. 56 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs BOX 2.8 Priorities for Improving Urban Mobility Resilience in Chennai, Tamil Nadu Chennai’s transport and mobility system is affected by floods and cyclones. Other climate shocks are also growing in importance and magnitude, including heatwaves and sea level rise (with commensurate increases in storm surges). At the higher strategic level, there are three important messages for consideration by the city of Chennai regarding floods and urban transport: First, urban transport resilience requires strong inter-agency coordination at the municipal and upstream river basin level. Many of the structural and non-structural measures needed to enhance urban transport and mobility resilience are the responsibility of city departments other than those directly responsible for transport. In the case of upstream or basin-wide issues, other administrations need to be involved. Second, the impact of floods on the transport and mobility system cannot be analyzed in isolation from the condi- tions and challenges of that system in dry conditions. Floods amplify the existing bottlenecks and inefficiencies of the city’s transport and mobility system. Segments and nodes of the urban road network that face frequent traffic congestion or are close to capacity will frequently be the areas most impacted under flood conditions. A practical first step to reducing the impact of floods is to study, understand, and tackle the bottlenecks and inefficiencies of the system in dry conditions. Third, continuous data collection is critical to identifying priority challenges and to studying structural and non-structural solutions. Chennai is fortunate to have a wealth of information on its transit and mobility system. However, building the resilience of the transit and mobility system will require the continuous gathering of data that are usually not collected by city transport departments in India. This data includes: (i) weather data and predictions; (ii) urban hydrological data; (iii) vulnerability data on critical transport infrastructure links to floods; and (iv) mobility data during flood conditions. exposure wherever possible. When exposure can- to maximize development gains by ensuring that all not be avoided, the design of infrastructure assets urbanization decisions and investments take current should be driven by two considerations: (1) the criti- and future risks into account. This chapter has iden- cality of the asset (proxied by the economic and wel- tified key actions that could deliver high economic fare impacts if the asset fails); and (2) the exposure returns and contribute to reduced climate change of the asset (i.e., the likelihood of the asset being impacts. For instance, investing in urban flood miti- affected by various hazards). The availability and use gation can avert the massive costs of flood damages of the most recent climate risk data is key to aligning and losses annually. Greening cities with cool roofs policies and investments with current risks and to and implementing heatwave early warning systems protecting roads and infrastructure from flood risks would be expected to save more than 50,000 lives per (Schuetz, et al., 2023). year by 2050 and have a high benefit-cost ratio (up to 50:1 for the early warning systems). Clearly, India’s cities must integrate adaptation and resilience 2.6 BUILDING CITIES ADAPTED TO CLIMATE within their core urbanization policies and plans. Six key recommendations and conclusions emerge from AND DISASTER RISKS the analysis (see Box 2.9). Indian cities have a brief window of opportunity to leverage urbanization to improve resilience to cli- The measures discussed in Box 2.9 will need to be mate change impacts. With the rapid development better incorporated into city planning, budgeting, and expansion of cities and infrastructure expected and management, and this will require considerable in the coming half-century, there is an opportunity institutional strengthening. The planning capacity 57 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA of urban local governments needs to be enhanced, execute resilient capital investment projects. This particularly for spatial planning, risk-sensitive urban includes problems in the strategic planning needed land use planning, and infrastructure planning. Sixty- to develop pipelines of viable projects, low capacity five percent of urban settlements in India do not have to design complex projects and public–private part- a master plan. Their lack of technical capacity under- nership (PPP) transactions, and limited ability to deal mines the implementation of strategies like effec- with private investors. Cities must also improve their tive flood management policies.51 Organizational financial management capacity. For example, finan- responsibilities need to be clarified. Responsibilities cial management systems need to be strengthened, for urban development are fragmented and few life cycle cost evaluation-based processes should be local governments have departments that address developed, and budgeting and expenditure manage- hazards like flood risk. Furthermore, cities need ment should be improved to better manage resilient to address institutional weaknesses in investment infrastructure and services. These financial issues planning and execution to improve their ability to are discussed in more detail in Chapter IV. 52 53 54 BOX 2.9 Improving Urban Resilience and Adaptation Capacity in Indian Cities: A Six-point Agenda Urban local governments must play a critical role in integrating adaptation and resilience into the urbanization pro- cess. This can best be achieved through a six point agenda focusing on: (i) better assessing and tracking evolving risks through urban risk profiles; (ii) improving disaster preparedness including early warning, response and recov- ery measures; (iii) ensuring risk-sensitive and compactness considerations in new urban area development; (iv) developing, implementing, and maintaining integrated risk reduction measures; (v) supporting the poorest and most vulnerable citizens, including through targeting and safety nets; and (vi) facilitating the private sector’s role in risk transfer and resilience of private assets. The following paragraphs discuss each point. (i) Urban risk profiles. Cities need to pursue dynamic and comprehensive climate and disaster risk assessments to better understand evolving risks spatially. These assessments have been conducted infrequently. Of the 126 cities assessed by the Climate-Smart Cities Assessment Framework,52 only 10 had conducted flood risk assessments and developed flood management plans, six coastal cities are undertaking ward-level flood risk analyses and developing resilience action plans.53 These assessments are crucial to provide the information necessary for planning impact- based early warning, identifying new land for development, undertaking risk reduction and mitigation measures, and improving private sector involvement in insurance provision. The assessments can also help avoid locking in development patterns that increase vulnerability and exposure to climate impacts. (ii) Early warning, response, and recovery capacity. These are quick-win and cost-effective investments that save lives and protect property. Locally informed risk information or risk profiles should be incorporated into early warn- ing and emergency response. Many Indian cities are already investing in improving early warning and response, but major implementation gaps remain. Improving impact-based warning using localized risk data will be crucial to provide actionable early warning for at-risk communities. Many cities are already acting in this regard. For example, following the success of Ahmedabad’s pioneering HAP,54 further HAPs are being rolled out. The approach needs to be replicated nationwide and the quality of the HAPs and their implementation needs strengthening. It is crucial to 51 Reforms in Urban Planning Capacity in India. NITI Aayog, 2021. 52 C-Cube has developed the Climate Smart Cities Assessment Framework and has surveyed 126 large cities in India, with more surveys in progress. 53 Hydromet Resilience Action Plans. NCRMP II. Available at: https://hatch-marine.com/portfolio/developing-hydrometeorological-resilient-action-plans/ 54 Ahmedebad’s HAP links early warning systems with actions to protect vulnerable groups during heatwaves and is credited with averting around 1,200 deaths per year in the city during the five years after its introduction in 2013. (Source: Hess, et al., 2018) 58 02 Climate Impacts and Urban Adaptation Needs BOX 2.9 (cont.) West Bengal fire brigade. © suman bhaumik. ensure that the plans are based on robust vulnerability analysis and that they include practical actions and ways of learning from implementation experience.55 (iii) New urban area development. With the urban population in India set to double by 2070, it is critical that all growing cities focus on supply of new urban land based on local climate and disaster risk profiles, and that they take measures to ensure risk-sensitive development with access to resilient services, infrastructure, and buildings. In the case of flood risk reduction, this requires good zoning for flood areas and other hazards. New developments must include pro- vision to reduce exposure to flood hazard and to improve stormwater management. National and state governments have made good progress in providing state and district level “risk atlases”(for e.g. flood hazard maps or atlases for states provided by National Disaster Management Authority of India. See https://ndma.gov.in/flood-hazard-atlases). There is an opportunity to develop such more detailed maps for all at-risk cities. Land use plans for new areas need to be based on risk identification that includes surrounding areas. Some urban development authorities are already systematically adopting risk-sensitive analyses in their master plans and are providing building approval based on risk assessment. Similar approach needs to be adopted for all cities that are at a high risk of flooding, water scarcity and/ or extreme heat impacts. (iv) Integrated urban risk reduction measures. The complexity of the climate adaptation challenge requires a focus on integrated rather than standalone approaches, spanning both grey and green infrastructure. This requires development, implementation, and maintenance of comprehensive climate and disaster risk mitigation measures or adaptation plans and integrating them with the urban development paradigm. The complexity of causal factors that bring about flooding and other hazards in each Indian city requires a shift from hard engineering to hybrid solutions. 55 With GoI support, HAPs are being rolled out with more than 100 local HAPs now existing. 59 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA BOX 2.9 (cont.) These include NbS such as sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) and the “sponge city” approach. Sound man- agement of watersheds and wetland or estuarine areas can help provide natural ecosystem services. Solutions also include the provision, retrofitting, and maintenance of drainage and other key infrastructure systems. (v) Supporting the most vulnerable citizens. Urban adaptation measures need to prioritize under-provisioned neighborhoods to address disparities and improve the resilience of the most vulnerable communities. This approach includes ensuring a safety net to support the poor and most vulnerable during and after a climatic shock. Early warn- ing and response systems can identify and target the most vulnerable groups in advance. Risk reduction measures in informal settlements that have proven effective include systematic in situ upgrades that incorporate land read- justments, infrastructure upgrading, and home improvements, all of which require strong community participation. Relocation to new sites requires careful due diligence and should serve as the last resort for informal settlements in the highest-risk zones. (vi) Private sector role in addressing residual risk. The private sector plays a key role in delivering insurance and resilient housing. Through measures such as flood risk insurance, private insurance companies can support any residual risk that remains after flood risk reduction measures. The government can support the private insurance sector through improved risk mapping and by setting rules that ensure fair risk premiums. For public and private building and construction companies, government can provide incentives together with knowledge about construc- tion techniques and regulations, the process and criteria for planning applications, and arrangements for post- construction inspection. A Command and Control Center set up by Smart City Ahmedabad Development Ltd. at Paldi. © DeshGujarat.com. 60 O3 OPPORTUNITIES FOR EFFICIENT, RESILIENT AND LOW-CARBON URBAN DEVELOPMENT Traffic in Delhi. © mtreasure. 61 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Carbon emissions from Indian cities are increasing actions needed in Indian cities to achieve a low-car- but there is a huge potential for low-carbon growth bon urban development pathway. that will improve overall urban development and growth in an inclusive manner. This chapter’s six sections investigate key measures that cities can 3.1 EMISSIONS TRAJECTORY OF INDIAN take to follow a low-carbon development pathway. CITIES AND MITIGATION POTENTIAL Section 3.1 provides an overview of the emissions India’s Urban Carbon Profile trajectory in Indian cities. Section 3.2 uses growth One of the key challenges for Indian cities is to modeling of selected cities to focus on the benefits reduce GHG emissions.56 Cities globally have higher from compact city planning, managed densifica- emissions compared to rural areas because they house tion, and improvements in urban amenities. Section more people and have higher consumption. Most car- bon emissions in urban areas of India come from the 3.3 focuses on what is needed to achieve green and energy, transport, and building sectors (see Figure 3.1). resilient municipal services, especially in sustain- Urban emissions vary with multiple factors, including able waste management. Section 3.4 investigates urban population growth, urban density and the struc- opportunities in the housing and transport sectors. ture of a city’s economy. Of the large cities, the sub- Section 3.5 focuses on the shifts needed in the urban set with populations ranging from one to five million transport sector to ease air pollution and the related has the highest carbon dioxide emissions (see Figure potential health benefits. Section 3.6 summarizes the 3.1). A separate assessment based on a macro-level FIGURE 3.1 Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Total of All Urban Centers (UCs), by City Population Size and Sector (2015) CO2 emissions, total of all urban centers, by city size and sector 300,000,000 CO2 EMISSIONS (TONS, 2015, EDGAR) 250,000,000 200,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 50k-300k 300k-500k 500k-1m 1m-5m 5m-10m 10m+ (1547 UCs) (190 UCs) (112 UCs) (65 UCs) (5 UCs) (4UCs) Agriculture Industry Residential Transport Energy Source: WB staff calculations based on the European Commission’s 2015 data from Emission’s Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR, see https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/) Note: UC = Urban Centers, per the European Commission's Global Human Settlements definition (high-density central areas of cities). Urban centers are defined based on the globally standardized ‘degree of urbanization’ approach and may not match administrative boundaries or classifications. The analysis excluded several hundred urban centers, mostly smaller ones. EDGAR shows territorial emissions (based on where emissions are released). Except where indicated as Global Gridded Model of Carbon Footprints (GGMCF) data (see https://citycarbonfootprints), all other data here is from UCDB, which is the Urban Centers Database from which UC-level EDGAR data is taken. The data here is for fossil CO2 emissions only, which excludes organic short cycle CO2, methane, and other GHGs. 56 "Thriving: Making Cities Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Resilient in a Changing Climate." World Bank, 2022. 62 03 Opportunities for Efficient, Resilient and Low-carbon Urban Development assessment of selected cities57 covering historical on average between 2010 and 2020. For several rea- data for aspects like the urban footprint, population sons, this pattern of less-compact growth has tended density, and carbon dioxide emissions, as well as to increase emissions more than a denser pattern of projections for the urban footprint, also found that development would have. Horizontal growth entails sectors with the highest emissions were the power converting agricultural land into peri-urban areas, industry, manufacturing, energy use in buildings, and which leads to higher carbon emissions and the need transport. These sectors accounted for 64 percent of for more infrastructure. Lower-density expansion the total emissions in the cities analyzed. also results in higher energy use and increased travel with consequent higher emissions. India’s cities have tended to spread horizontally and to become less dense on average, and this has Emission Trends Under Urban Growth Scenarios tended to increase emissions more than a compact Carbon emissions follow different trends in different development pathway would have. Urban emissions cities and thus will require city-specific mitigation vary with multiple factors, including urban density measures. A “deep dive” analysis of five cities evalu- and the structure of a city’s economy. In recent years, ated historical trends and alternative urban growth India’s urban built-up areas have grown in size and scenarios to determine the potential implications have become less compact: the average density of for climate resilience and GHG mitigation, economic the selected cities assessed decreased by 4 percent impact, and investment financing needs (see Box 3.1). BOX 3.1 Analysis Using Urban Growth Scenarios for Five “Deep Dive” Cities The urban growth scenarios aim to portray different urban planning paths by 2030 and 2050 for the five “deep dive” cities of Chennai, Indore, New Delhi, Surat, and Thiruvananthapuram. The scenarios were built with statistical models, spatial data, and the identification of key interventions for urban expansion, emission reduction, and adaptability. Urban Growth Scenarios: The urban growth scenarios under this analysis are defined by establishing a baseline and three alternative scenarios to obtain projections for 2030 and 2050, as detailed below: » The Historical Trends scenario explores how the cities would perform with no significant changes in current investment patterns or urban policy. There are limited investments in new schools, health centers and public spaces, and no new public transit lines. Financial resources are concentrated on building roads and other infra- structure in the expansion areas. » The Plan scenario explores the potential performance of the cities following national and local development plans. Assumptions under this scenario include key climate change mitigation and adaptation measures described in national and local development plans and moderate efforts at regulation to support compact growth. » The Best Case scenario explores the potential performance of cities following ambitious urban policies to reach net-zero goals. Investments under this scenario aim for gradual decarbonization transition to a low carbon path- way by implementing: (a) compact growth; (b) energy efficiency; (c) clean transport infrastructure; and (d) green infrastructure (that prioritize environmentally sustainable and low carbon approaches). Policy Levers: Policy levers trigger changes in the performance of a city. In this analysis, four major policy levers are considered: (1) compact and resilient city planning; (2) improved urban amenities and sustainable mobility; (3) energy efficiency strategies; and (4) efficient water and waste management. Each of these levers can achieve several objectives through sets of policies and investments. 57 The selected cities are: Agartala, Agra, Bengaluru, Chennai, New Delhi, Dhanbad, Guwahati, Hyderabad, Imphal, Indore, Jaipur, Kanpur, Kolkata, Lucknow, Ludhiana, Mumbai, Patna, Puri, Raipur, Sangli, Surat, Thiruvananthapuram, and Varanasi 63 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA BOX 3.1 (cont.) Objective and Contributing Policies and Relevant National and Local plans and Regulations Policy Lever Investments (select list) Compact and Compact cities: Enabling compact urban The Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenario definition Resilient City growth by promoting new construction from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).  Planning within the city boundaries. Efficient use of land, urban containment and natural environment conservation based on the national Urban and Regional Development Plan Formulation and Implementation (URDPFI) guidelines.  Densification: Enabling the increase of Re-densification of residential areas with low densities along population density in well-served areas selected sections of the Metro corridors in New Delhi.  and zones that reduce the exposure to Densification along the major mobility and transit corridors climate-related hazards. from the Comprehensive Mobility Plan of Chennai.  Transit Oriented Densification from the national URDPFI guidelines.  Improve Urban Increase of public transport networks: Proposed public transport networks based on the Amenities and Enhancing capacity and potential of Comprehensive Mobility Plans for each city and on planned Sustainable public transport by promoting public investments.  Mobility transportation facilities, and developing new health, education, and public facilities to maximize safety and accessibility. Increase of urban amenities: Enhancing The investment in urban amenities was based on the proposed citizen access to urban parks, open scheme for PM SHRI (PM ScHools for Rising India) at national spaces, and recreational areas such as level. sport facilities. Green infrastructure: Investing in urban The coastal zones in Chennai, Surat, and Thiruvananthapuram flood resilience, attenuating indoor are regulated under the Coastal area classification and temperatures and heat islands, and development regulations published by the Gazette of India. improving air quality by developing energy Tamil Nadu street guidelines include the introduction of efficient and resilient infrastructure. greenways.  Electrification of transport: Reducing Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala) energy consumption and carbon emissions policies outline the transition to e-mobility.   by the electrification of public transport. High electrification efforts based on the Compact City Scenarios of the Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP).  Green public lighting: Improving energy Street Lighting National Programme,d which seeks to replace Energy efficiency in public lighting through LED and serve new areas in the cities of India. Efficiency technology and renewable energy. Strategies Enforcement of green building Climate-responsive and resilient building design, construction, standards: Improving energy efficiency and operation in existing and future buildings based on the in residential and commercial buildings 2022 Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy. by updating appliances, to implement an energy-efficient housing retrofit or new construction. 64 03 Opportunities for Efficient, Resilient and Low-carbon Urban Development BOX 3.1 (cont.) Objective and Contributing Policies and Relevant National and Local plans and Regulations Policy Lever Investments (select list) Energy Increase of renewable energy: Increase of the renewable energy share based on the Efficiency Increase renewable energy generation and objectives of the NDCs, 26th Conference of Parties (COP 26), Strategies promote distributed generation (e.g., solar and  the Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Strategy. (cont.) street lighting).  Efficient Water Water and wastewater management: Adaptation in urban design, energy, and material efficiency in and Waste Improving water efficiency by installing buildings. Management water storage and water treatment systems Sustainable urbanisation to improve the efficiency of municipal in residential and commercial buildings. services from the Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Reducing pollution impacts and increasing Strategy. potential potable water resources.  Policy and investment recommendations from the World Bank.  Solid waste management: Policies based on Indore and Thiruvananthapuram SWM. Improving SWM systems to divert waste Policy and investment recommendations from the World Bank.  from landfills and prevent illegal dumping. Indicators: The performance of each of the five cities under the three urban growth scenarios was measured by indicators, which represent the outcome of the modeling process. Thirteen indicators were measured: population density, urban growth, water demand, wastewater treatment, solid waste coverage, energy consumption, renewable energy, emissions, proximity to amenities (bus transport, metro lanes, health centers, schools, and public spaces), exposure to hazards (floods, UHI effect, drought, and landslides), capital cost of investment (expansion costs and investments for policies), municipal service cost, and cost of relocation. The urban growth analysis conducted for this report 2050 Historical Trends scenario mainly because they highlights historical trends as well as plan and best- would experience a higher increase in their urban case emissions scenarios (summarized in Figure 3.2). density and because there are detailed plans at the state level to continue increasing electricity produc- The Historical Trend scenario assumes a continua- tion from renewables. tion of historical trends without significant invest- ments or changes in urban policy.58 In this scenario, The Plan scenario shows potential city performance by 2050, per capita emissions would drop 6 percent following key climate change mitigation measures in Chennai, 25 percent in New Delhi, and less than 1 described in national ministry and local municipal percent in Indore and Thiruvananthapuram. However, development plans. Assuming that planned mea- per capita emissions would increase in Surat by sures are implemented, emissions would be reduced 10 percent (see Figure 3.2). This evolution can be in 2050 by 57 percent in Chennai, 51 percent in Indore, explained by two factors: the efficiency of each city’s 65 percent in New Delhi, 50 percent in Surat, and 19 urbanization process, and the increasing share of percent in Thiruvananthapuram. The plans address renewable energy in electricity production. Chennai urban compactness, densification, green infrastruc- and New Delhi would see emissions decrease in the ture, an increase in the public transport network and in 58 The scenario assumes that investments on renewable energy will follow the historical trend, which has been increasing for the last two decades, hence shows decrease from the baseline depending on the city. 65 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA FIGURE 3.2 Modeled Per Capita Carbon Emissions by 2050 in Select Cities 2,000 1,795 1,800 1,581 1,600 KG CO2E PER CAPITA PER YEAR 1,485 1,400 1,344 1,273 1,291 1,200 1,101 1,102 1,041 1,000 882 800 677 804 622 600 537 406 400 330 344 261 178 205 200 0 Chennai Indore New Delhi Surat Thiruvananthapuram 1. Historical Trends Scenario 2050 2. Plan Scenario 2050 3. Best Case Scenario 2050 Baseline 2020 Source: World Bank staff calculations. See Methodology in Box 3.1 urban amenities, and the electrification of transport. The policy levers explored under this urban growth They also address the enforcement of green building scenario analysis align with India’s overall mitiga- standards and increasing renewable energy and green tion and adaptation goals. They are fully consistent public lighting, as well as improving urban wastewater, with external commitments such as the NDCs. They water, and SWM. are also in line with domestic commitments such as the 2022 Long-Term Low-Carbon Development Cities can achieve even greater emission reduc- Strategy of the Ministry of Environment, Forest, and tions through more ambitious green urban poli- Climate Change (MOEFCC), the various national urban cies under the Best Case scenario. The simulations missions, and local development plans. The analysis conducted for this report show that the most ambi- shows how the combination of policy levers contrib- tious urban policies in these key areas would allow utes to mitigation but also how the levers provide cities to reduce their emissions by 80 percent on co-benefits in terms of improving urban service average by 2050. Under this Scenario, emissions delivery and the resilience of cities as highlighted in Table 3.1. per capita are estimated to decrease significantly compared with the Historical Trends scenario: by 89 Indian cities will save a substantial amount of percent in Chennai, 76 percent in Indore, 82 percent money by 2050 if they invest in adaptation and in New Delhi, 74 percent in Surat, and 73 percent in low-carbon urban development measures now. Thiruvananthapuram. Figure 3.3 shows the com- The urban growth modeling compared the cost of bined effect of a significantly cleaner electricity mix, investing in mitigation and adaptation including reduced energy demand, greater urban density, elec- in compact city measures and energy efficiency trification of transport, efficient waste management actions (see policy levers in Box 3.1) to urban expan- strategies, efficient urban amenities, and cooling sion costs. The modeling results show that Chennai, strategies such as green spaces. Indore, New Delhi, Surat, and Thiruvananthapuram 66 03 Opportunities for Efficient, Resilient and Low-carbon Urban Development TABLE 3.1 Key Recommendations from the Urban Growth Scenario Analysis Recommendations for Cities Analysis Details Better manage urban Under the Best Case scenario, a significant greenfield area of potentially 345 km2 could be preserved expansion and exposure to from urbanization by 2050: 105 km2 in Chennai, 29 km2 in Indore, 136 km2 in New Delhi, 67 km2 in Surat, hazards through compact and 8 km2 in Thiruvananthapuram. This would contribute to decreasing carbon emissions as it is proven and resilient city planning. that compact cities significantly reduce energy consumption (Ahlfeldt, 2018). Moreover, under the Best Case scenario in the five cities, the population’s exposure to hazards could significantly decrease by 2050. To achieve this, urban densities should be improved through compact and resilient city planning strategies that promote higher buildings, carry out urban regeneration projects, factor risks into planning, and prioritize housing development in suitable locations. Improve urban amenities Improving non-car mobility through more public transport and public spaces provides a significant related to non-car mobility, opportunity to reduce emissions. If the improvement of public transport and public spaces is integrated green infrastructure, and into a perspective of green infrastructure and NbS, these projects could also reduce vulnerability to education and health. hazards within cities. In the majority of the cities analyzed under the macro-assessment, less than 25 percent of the population lives within walking distance (1,000 meters) of a bus station; less than 8 percent of the population lives within 500 meters of a public space; less than 10 percent of the inhabitants have access to a school within walking distance (less than 500 meters), and less than 50 percent of the inhabitants have a hospital at a distance less than 1,600 meters from their homes. Furthermore, green areas are noticeably scarce—14 of the selected cities assessed registered less than 0.5 m2 of green area per inhabitant. Promote electrification of Energy-efficient technologies reduce the demand for electricity, heating, and power generation, transport, improve energy potentially reducing fossil fuel consumption and emissions. For example, based on the analysis of five efficiency in public lighting cities, energy consumption can be reduced by up to 56 percent compared to the Base Case scenario. In and buildings, and increase addition, shifting from fossil-fueled energy generation to renewable energy supports the reduction of renewable energy generation carbon emissions. Improve water and waste Water is critical for tackling the vulnerability of cities because of the expected rising temperatures management by replicating that increase demand for water. The problem is most acute for the urban population living in informal and scaling up local best settlements with limited access to water. Under the Best Case scenario, 6,823 million liters of water per practices day could be saved by 2050 in the five cities analyzed. Waste management is also critical for mitigation in cities as it accounts for 32 percent of methane emissions. Innovative initiatives have emerged in New Delhi, Chennai, Bengaluru, Surat, and Thiruvananthapuram, which could be replicated and scaled up. Climate resilient, compact, Figures 3.4–3.6 show that the Best Case scenario requires extra investment for adaptation and and better-performing mitigation compared to the Historical Trends scenario. However, these investments would allow for city development is cost- savings in expansion costs. For example, in Chennai, the scenario modeling suggests savings on urban effective in the long term expansion costs that outweigh the costs of mitigation and adaptation-related investments in the Best Case scenario. would save $136 billion dollars in expansion costs by Under this Best Case scenario, Chennai would garner 2050 (see Figure 3.3), primarily by reducing the costs the highest benefit because adaptation and mitiga- of building many new streets and new infrastructure tion costs would actually be lower than under the for water, electricity, sewage, and waste. Under the Historical Trend scenario. The reason for this is that Historical Trends scenario, Indian cities would grow under the Best Case scenario, Chennai’s urban foot- horizontally, and this would imply important invest- print would grow far less than under the Historical ments in building new roads and infrastructure. Trend scenario (which projects urban expansion of 12 However, if the five cities implement the four sets of percent 2020-2050). policies recommended above and invest $294 billion dollars, urban expansion costs would be minimized. 67 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA FIGURE 3.3 Modeled Capital Cost by 2050 for Select Cities (a) Capital Cost Investment by 2050 52,176 Chennai 53,640 43,956 27,004 Indore 29,124 32,822 98,777 New Delhi 159,282 165,695 28,786 Surat 46,101 44,218 3,856 Thiruvananthapuram 4,505 7,591 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000 MILLIONS (USD) (b) Capital Cost Disaggregated—Urban Expansion Costs by 2050 (c) Capital Cost Disaggregated—Mitigation and Adaptation Investments by 2050 50,488 1,688 Chennai 31,290 Chennai 22,350 11,984 31,971 24,164 2,841 Indore 15,383 Indore 13,742 12,080 20,743 96,555 2,221 New Delhi 69,243 New Delhi 90,039 47,932 117,763 27,462 1,350 Surat 13,284 Surat 33,648 4,755 40,503 3,420 437 Thiruvananthapuram 469 Thiruvananthapuram 4,035 354 7,237 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 MILLIONS (USD) MILLIONS (USD) 1. Historical Trend scenario 2050 2. Plan scenario 2050 3. Best Case scenario 2050 Source: World Bank staff calculations. See Box 3.1 for methodology. Note: Figure 3.3 (b) shows the modeled capital cost in the Historical, Plan, and Best Case scenarios. Figure 3.3 (c) shows the costs of mitigation and adaptation investments recommended in the Best Case scenario compared to the Historical Trend scenario and the Plan scenario. The figures show the potential savings in cities. For example, by investing $32.0 billion in the mitigation and adaptation measures recommended (see Box 3.1), Chennai would spend only $2.0 billion in expansion costs, rather than $50.5 billion under the Historical Trend scenario. This represents a savings of $38.5 billion. 3.2 URBAN PLANNING AND EFFICIENT CITIES migration, together with administrative changes that included new populations through declassification of Urban population growth drives urban expansion. rural areas and boundary changes. Between 2010 and 2020, most of the selected cities analyzed experienced population growth in the range Better managing urban expansion through effi- of 4–30 percent. The increase was due predominantly cient city planning for compact cities can have to natural increase of the population and inward many benefits. Already high densities characterize 68 03 Opportunities for Efficient, Resilient and Low-carbon Urban Development FIGURE 3.4 Urban Growth and Expansion Rates 1990–2000 (a) Urban growth of selected cities 2000–2010 2010–2020 2020 − 2030 1990–2000 2000–2010 2010–2020 2020 − 2030 Delhi [New Delhi] 1990–2000 2000–2010 2010–2020 2020 − 2030 Delhi [New Delhi] Delhi [New Delhi] Kolkata Kolkata Kolkata Mumbai Mumbai Mumbai Bengaluru Bengaluru Bengaluru Chennai Chennai Chennai Hyderabad Hyderabad Hyderabad Surat Surat Surat Lucknow Lucknow Lucknow Varanasi Varanasi Varanasi Jaipur Jaipur Jaipur Kanpur Kanpur Kanpur Indore Indore Indore Dhanbad Dhanbad Dhanbad Patna Patna Patna Agra Agra Agra Ludhiana Ludhiana Ludhiana Thiruvananthapuram Thiruvananthapuram Thiruvananthapuram Srinagar Srinagar Srinagar Raipur Raipur Raipur Guwahati Guwahati Guwahati Imphal Imphal Imphal Agartala Agartala Agartala Sangli Sangli Sangli Puri Puri Puri −40 −40 −20 −20 0 0 20 20 40−40 −20 40−40 −20 0 0 20 40 20 40 −40 −40 −20 −20 0 0 20 40−40 20 −20 40−40 −20 0 0 20 20 40 40 −40 −20 0 20 40−40 −20 0POPULATION 20 40 −40 GROWTH −20 (%) 0 20 40−40 −20 0 20 40 POPULATION GROWTH (%) POPULATION GROWTH (%) (Million) Population (Million) Population 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 Population (Million) 10 20 30 40 (b) Urban expansion rate of selected cities 1990 − 1990 2000 − 2000 2000 − 2000 2010 − 2010 2010 − 2010 2020 − 2020 2020 − 2020 2030 − 2030 Delhi [New Delhi] 1990 − 2000 2000 − 2010 2010 − 2020 2020 − 2030 Delhi [New Delhi] Delhi [New Delhi] Kolkata Kolkata Kolkata Bengaluru Bengaluru Bengaluru Hyderabad Hyderabad Hyderabad Chennai Chennai Chennai Mumbai Mumbai Mumbai Jaipur Jaipur Jaipur Lucknow Lucknow Lucknow Varanasi Varanasi Varanasi Ludhiana Ludhiana Ludhiana Indore Indore Indore Thiruvananthapuram Thiruvananthapuram Thiruvananthapuram Kanpur Kanpur Kanpur Surat Surat Surat Imphal Imphal Imphal Dhanbad Dhanbad Dhanbad Agra Agra Agra Srinagar Srinagar Srinagar Raipur Raipur Raipur Guwahati Guwahati Guwahati Patna Patna Patna Agartala Agartala Agartala Sangli Sangli Sangli Puri Puri Puri 0 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 0 0 10 20 10 20 3030 4040 0 10 0 20 30 10 20 30 40 40 0 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 0 10 20 30 40 0 20 30 10 URBAN 40 0 GROWTH 10 20 FOOTPRINT (%) 30 40 0 10 20 30 40 URBAN FOOTPRINT GROWTH (%) URBAN FOOTPRINT GROWTH (%) Area (km²) 250 500 750 Area (km²) 250 500 750 Area (km²) 250 500 750 Source: World Bank staff calculations based on information from WorldPop (2018), the National Commission on Population (2019), Schiavina, M., Melchiorri, M., Pesaresi, M., Politis, P., Freire, S., Maffenini, L., ... & Kemper, T. (2022). GHSL data package 2022. Publications Office of the European Union: Luxembourg. 69 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Better managing urban expansion and investing in green and resilient buildings are critical for achieving efficient cities. © ah_fotobox. the development patterns of India’s cities compared There is an opportunity to improve efficiencies to other countries, with a predominance of low- to in Indian cities through a combination of “com- middle-rise buildings. For the future, expansion is pact cities,” mixed-use development, and transit- an option but the evidence is that urban expansion, oriented development (TOD), all of which serve especially if it is uncontrolled and sprawling, will con- both mitigation and adaptation purposes. The sume forests, agricultural lands and water resources, Indian urban densification process has been charac- cause stress on ecosystems and lead to air and higher terized by low to middle-rise buildings, many of them impacts from climate induced disasters. On the other two to three stories [see Figure 3.5 (b)]. The densifi- hand, uncontrolled densification exacerbates urban cation process results more from informal urbaniza- challenges of access to basic services, congestion, tion patterns than from vertical urban development. and air pollution. However, if accompanied by proper In the selected cities analyzed, the current densifi- urban planning, green areas, amenities and public cation process follows several different patterns: transport, compact cities have the potential to reduce (i) infill processes where vacant land or green areas energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions are developed with new buildings within the existing and to improve livability. Under the Historical Trends urban area; (ii) suburban areas being urbanized, with scenario, urban densities (inhabitants per km2) in the increasing densities; and (iii) new developments with five cities are likely to increase 2020-2050 by 6–29 per- increasing building heights and densities and sup- cent (except in Thiruvananthapuram). Under the Best porting mixed land uses. While efficiency strategies Case scenario, urban density in the five cities would will differ by urban characteristics, many cities are increase faster over the same period, by as much as 20 already exploring the various planning tools high- percent in New Delhi and by over 60 percent in Indore lighted in Table 3.2 to ensure the development and and Surat [see Figure 3.5 (a)]. management of efficient cities. 70 03 Opportunities for Efficient, Resilient and Low-carbon Urban Development FIGURE 3.5 (a) Current and Projected Population Density for Five “Deep Dive” Cities (2020-2050); (b) Population Density and Building Height for Selected Cities Analyzed. (a) Current and Projected Population Density for Five “Deep Dive” Cities (2020-2050) 200,000 INHABITANTS PER SQUARE KILOMETER 151,845 150,000 118,982 100,000 87,501 82,082 67,509 71,462 63,572 59,482 63,039 50,793 50,000 38,179 36,844 59,664 30,783 27,508 39,287 27,999 31,486 29,649 30,668 0 Chennai Indore New Delhi Surat Thiruvananthapuram 1. Historical Trends Scenario 2050 2. Plan Scenario 2050 3. Best Case Scenario 2050 Baseline 2020 (b) Population Density and Building Height for Selected Cities Analyzed Mumbai 7 Guwahati Surat Bengaluru Patna 6 Hyderabad Delhi [New Delhi] HEIGHT (METERS) Ludhiana Chennai Kanpur 5 Raipur Agra Jaipur Puri Thiruvananthapuram Indore Lucknow 4 Sangli Imphal Kolkata Agartala Dhanbad Varanasi 300 500 1000 POPULATION DENSITY (INH/HA) Population (million) 10 20 30 40 Source: (a-top) World Bank staff calculations, based on data from Schiavina, M., Melchiorri, M., Pesaresi, M., Politis, P., Freire, S., Maffenini, L., ... & Kemper, T. (2022). GHSL data package 2022. Publications Office of the European Union: Luxembourg. 71 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA TABLE 3.2 Urban Planning Tools for Developing and Managing Efficient, Resilient, Low-carbon Cities Planning Tool Recommendations Spatial Planning and Master Prepare a detailed plan for a 20-year period, identifying in detail the land required for public Planning purposes and critical infrastructure and prescribing broad land uses and development control regulations for other lands. This is critical for controlling urban expansion and ensuring that appropriate land is set aside to ensure access to urban mobility and basic services as cities grow in the long term. Land Use Zoning Restrict and regulate the type of activities that will be acceptable on particular land lots such as residential, commercial, industrial, open/green, and public space, among others. This will allow cities to: (i) manage negative externalities from industries (such as pollutants, GHG and methane emissions); (ii) control exposure to vulnerabilities (such as construction in flood-prone zones), create buffers to urban flood, and ensure green canopy coverage for resilience to urban heat; and (iii) enforce necessary environmental clearances. Floor Area Ratio (FAR) or Floor Utilize FAR/FSI zoning (which is used to regulate and control building heights, size, and occupancy) to Space Index (FSI) Zoning plan overall requirements for floor space to ensure efficient use of land and to provide incentives to developers to finance public amenities (such as a park, green/open space, or right-of-way). Development Control Enforce DCRs that ensure that development conforms to spatial development plans, policy Regulations (DCR) guidelines, regulations, and standards issued by the planning authorities. Measures may include requirements for affordable housing, parking, amenities, and other features to ensure that development is orderly and serves the welfare of the public. Building Codes and Guidelines Enforce building codes for the design and construction of buildings to ensure long-term resilience and mitigation (including energy and water efficiencies). Land Value Capture (LVC) LVC enables communities to recover and reinvest land value increases that result from public investment and government actions. While various LVC instruments (such as land readjustment, land value taxes, transfer of development rights, etc.) have had varying levels of success, LVC, if applied well, can be a self-financing and sustainable model for TOD and urban infrastructure development. Source: World Bank staff. 3.3 GREEN AND RESILIENT MUNICIPAL to groundwater pollution and to the prevalence of SERVICES waterborne diseases. Open burning of waste and the use of waste as fuel not only generates carbon diox- Successfully pursuing low-carbon development ide emissions but also toxins that degrade air quality. pathways will require investing in the provision of green and resilient municipal services. This sec- Improving waste management systems can sig- tion focuses on SWM as an example of such a ser- nificantly support transition to low carbon path- vice because it provides opportunities to reduce GHG way. Indian cities produce 55 million tons of solid emissions, strengthen resilience, and improve public waste, and are projected to produce 285 million health outcomes. Globally, municipal SWM is respon- tons by 2035 and 415 million tons by 2050 with great sible for 5 percent of carbon dioxide emissions and potential to modernize SWM system and reduce GHG 20 percent of human-induced global methane.59 emissions (based on More Growth, Less Garbage, Inadequate SWM leads to blocked urban drainage sys- World Bank, 2021). GHG modeling for the SWM sector tems, aggravating flooding events and contributing was undertaken using the Climate Action for Urban 59 "What a Waste 2.0." World Bank 2018, and Global Methane Assessment, CCAC and UNEP, 2021 72 03 Opportunities for Efficient, Resilient and Low-carbon Urban Development Sustainability (CURB) tool at the country level. CURB city level for Chennai, Indore, New Delhi, Surat, and is a scenario planning tool that evaluates the cost, Thiruvananthapuram.61 The analysis took into account feasibility, and impact of urban climate actions. The the specifics of each city, including variations in the modeling estimated total emissions in India in 2020 baseline resulting from the different strategies of from urban waste to be 153.4 million tons carbon each city for reducing carbon emissions. The contri- dioxide equivalent (MtCO2eq), of which almost 4 mil- butions of the main segments of the SWM sector—col- lion tons was methane. Assuming a continuation of lection, transport, and disposal—were disaggregated. historical trends, these emissions are expected to The model was used to generate scenarios for reduc- increase.60 A key improvement would be to reduce ing emissions in the short, medium and long term. dumping; reducing dumping by 25 percentage points in 10 years compared to the 2020 baseline would Modeling a Plan scenario showed that straightfor- result in a 47.5 percent reduction of carbon dioxide ward SWM modernization could keep emissions emissions see (Figure 3.6). around the current levels. While the Historical Trends scenario assumed continuation of historical trends, FIGURE 3.6 the Plan scenario simulated improved disposal activ- Low-carbon development potential in SWM Sector ities based on a progressive shift from dumpsites to advanced landfilling, including landfill gas capture 250 and utilization.62 This scenario reflects a modern- ization of collection and disposal to prevent waste -109.860.169 200 153.472.188 tCO2eq leakage and to reduce methane emissions from tCO2eq 47.5% reduction dumpsites. Modeling results showed a significant 150 -5.459.834 tCO2eq impact on emissions compared to the Historical MILLIONS 3.1% reduction -45.671.994 tCO2eq Trends. Modernization of disposal practices is suffi- 100 22.4% reduction cient to cap emissions around existing levels when 50 considered in isolation from other interventions in the sector. The investment costs are estimated to be 0 $10 per capita, and the operating costs $25 per ton. 20 30 24 22 28 29 34 23 25 26 32 33 35 27 21 31 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 The Best Case scenario leverages a wide range Source: World Bank staff calculations based on data from of technologies—such as clean collection vehi- "More Growth Less Garbage, World Bank (2021). Accessible from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/ cles and anaerobic digestion plants—to minimize ba7feea4-0abe-59fb-bc60-ce6b60eb1ceb carbon dioxide and methane emissions along the value chain.63 This scenario covers the entire SWM Results of city-level modeling also show high value chain from household segregation to recy- emissions reduction potential. In addition to the cling, thus maximizing climate co-benefits. The sce- country-level modeling discussed above, sector GHG nario results show significant emissions reduction modeling using the CURB tool was also carried out at in all cities, attributable to a combination of better 60 The World Bank’s emissions modeling was conducted using standardized methodology and the World Bank’s CURB Tool, with sector data from "What a Waste 2.0" (World Bank, 2018) and population figures from national publications. It is important to note that this estimate is much higher than the National GHG Inventory 2018’s estimate of total GHG emissions from the SWM sector at 11.1 MtCO2eq. 61 The selection of these metropolitan areas was due to three reasons: (a) availability of clean data on waste generation, composition, and management; (b) representativeness of urban diversity; and (c) potential emissions associated with large-scale disposal facilities in metropolitan areas. 62 This scenario reflects a modernization of the disposal and collection efficiency to prevent waste leakage and reduce methane emissions from dumpsites. The scenario is also tailored to require minimal investment. 63 This scenario involves dual-stream collection (wet/dry), clean collection vehicles, anaerobic digestion, fossil fuel substitution with Refuse Derived Fuel (RDF), advanced landfilling, material recycling, and the introduction of a performance management system. The scenario shows the current maximal abatement from implementing all the best available technologies. It is used as a reference scenario. Although not unrealistic it would require major policy adjustments. 73 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA management of biodegradable waste, reduced land- operating costs $50 per ton. Table 3.3 and Figures filling, and improved methane capture. The invest- 3.7 and 3.8 summarize the modeling results. ment costs estimated to be $40 per capita, and the TABLE 3.3 Average Estimated Total Annual GHG Emissions for the SWM Sector in Five Cities (tCO2eq)63 Scenarios Quantities and units 2020 2030 2040 2050 Historical Trends scenario Projected GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) 8,097,026 9,388,625 10,372,430 11,154,655 Plan Scenario Projected GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) 8,097,026 8,480,423 7,516,984 6,446,528 Reduction in GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) - 908,202 2,855,446 4,708,127 Percentage Reduction - 10% 28% 42% Best Case scenario Projected GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) 8,097,026 7,651,378 5,593,593 3,208,673 Reduction in GHG Emissions (tCO2eq) - 1,737,247 4,778,837 7,945,982 Percentage Reduction - 19% 46% 71% Source: World Bank staff calculation based on CURB tool analysis. FIGURE 3.7 FIGURE 3.8 Emissions and Emission Reduction Potential Per Capita in Emissions and Emission Reduction Potential Per Capita Five Selected Cities (Urban Plan scenario kilograms of CO2 in Five Selected Cities (Best Case scenario in kgCO2eq per equivalent (kgCO2eq) per year per capita) year per capita) 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 0 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 Chennai Delhi Surat Indore Chennai Delhi Thiruvananthapuram Surat Indore Thrivandrum Source: World Bank staff calculation based on CURB tool analysis. Source: World Bank staff calculation based on CURB tool analysis (2023). Several priorities emerge from the analysis of after basic levels of landfilling improvement have municipal SWM services. Waste dumping needs been achieved. Moreover, the sector’s financial sus- to be stopped and modern treatment and disposal tainability needs to be improved. SWM is a public capacities need to be introduced. Landfilling, service requiring cost recovery, but cost recovery with adequate methane recovery features, is the in India is negligible. Greater emphasis needs to be most financially viable solution. More sophisticated placed on creating and enhancing revenue sources. infrastructure and technologies can further reduce In addition, fiscal transfers to SWM agencies need emissions, but these should only be introduced to be predictable, based on clear priorities and 64 MtCO2eq is million tons of CO2 equivalent. 74 03 Opportunities for Efficient, Resilient and Low-carbon Urban Development a full budgeting of expenditure needs (including of other treatment solutions. Although several laws, for disposal facilities). The use of a results-based policies, standards, and guidelines on SWM exist, approach could incentivize greater achievement of India needs a fully integrated and coherent frame- emission reduction targets.65 work and enforcement of regulations. Improvements are needed in: (i) technical and emission standards Reducing emissions from the SWM sector will for disposal facilities; (ii) policies for waste mini- require a roadmap with clear priorities, milestones, mization and diversion from landfills; and (iii) fiscal and timeframes. Given the basic state of current tools that could improve cost recovery and financial urban SWM in India and the rapidly increasing vol- predictability. India should develop regulations to umes of waste, significant investments will be needed stop open dumping and introduce mandatory design simply to sustain the current standard of waste man- specifications and standards for the development, agement. Establishing a well-performing system operation, and monitoring of disposal infrastructure. with environmental controls in place that can absorb Urban local bodies (ULBs) need to develop priority increasing volumes over time will be essential to mod- investment plans to upgrade disposal infrastructure erate GHG emissions. Approaches should be based on and need to strengthen technical capacities for the the waste hierarchy with efforts to minimize waste operation of disposal infrastructure. generation through both behavior change and recy- cling and reuse. Investments should focus on separa- Investment in SWM that reduces emissions can tion and disposal infrastructure along with closure of bring other benefits too. Investment in SWM is essen- dumpsites. Table 3.4 summarizes the roadmap. tial under all scenarios but additional investments in reducing emissions, including increased recycling, The regulatory, policy, and operational underpin- may not only contribute to achieving India’s NDCs but nings also need to be developed for the introduction also promote a shift toward a more circular economy, TABLE 3.4 SWM Sector Roadmap Wider SWM Sector Objectives Mitigation Priorities Regulatory and Institutional Frameworks Strengthen regulations and the institutions that regulate, manage, Immediate: Strengthen regulations and institutions to monitor and enforce the provision of SWM services. and control GHG emissions. Infrastructure and Systems Build the infrastructure and systems needed to provide adequate Immediate: Build sustainable disposal solutions that reduce GHG local services. emissions. Sustainable Financing Mechanisms Set up funding mechanisms that will allow financially sustainable Immediate & medium term: Set up funding mechanisms to allow SWM services to operate. capital and operational investments in critical infrastructure. Waste Reduction and Sustainable Public Behaviors Raise public awareness of and support for sustainable and Medium term: Raise public awareness of and support for responsible behaviors linked to waste. reducing and better handling of waste, particularly organic waste. Source: World Bank staff based on More Growth, Less Garbage (World Bank, 2021) accessible from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/ publication/ba7feea4-0abe-59fb-bc60-ce6b60eb1ceb 65 These may focus on: (a) modernizing the disposal capacity; (b) efficiency of waste minimization and diversion activities; (c) capacity and quality of disposal systems; and (d) financial sustainability through cost recovery. 75 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA bringing broader economic, environmental, and wel- provides door to door waste collection services, has fare benefits (see Table 3.5). Many Indian cities such developed a state of art integrated common and con- as Indore have taken innovative steps to improve trol center to improve tracking and efficiency, and SWM and can be a model to other Indian cities. Indore has invested in waste to energy plants. TABLE 3.5 Estimated Investment Needs by Scenario by 2050 Plan Scenario Best Case Scenario Description This scenario reflects a modernization of disposal This scenario spans the waste management value chain from and collection efficiency to prevent waste leakage household segregation to recycling and maximizes climate and reduce methane emissions from dumpsites. co-benefits. It also leverages technology to limit landfilling, seeking optimal GHG emissions reduction. Investments » Advanced landfilling capacity including gas » Source segregation capture and utilization » Dual-stream collection (wet/dry) » Waste collection improvement through litter » Clean collection vehicles management » Material recycling facility » Composting » Thermal-based treatment » Advanced landfilling » Performance management system Investment $22 billion $55 billion Source: World Bank staff calculations based on CURB tool analysis (2023). Indore’s door to door waste collection service. © Asmita Tiwari. 76 03 Opportunities for Efficient, Resilient and Low-carbon Urban Development 3.4 GREEN AND RESILIENT HOUSING emissions from urban households in the five cities were respectively estimated in the Historic Trends The housing sector generates substantial emis- scenario at 53.7 billion kwh and 38.2 MtCO2eq in sions through the life cycle of production, con- 2022. Given the likely growth in both population and struction, household use, and demolition and housing stock, and if no mitigation interventions are rebuilding. This section analyzes the mitigation introduced, both energy consumption and related potential of the housing sector in terms of house- emissions are projected to increase 2.4 times by hold energy use. Using the EDGE software devel- 2050 and 4.1 times by 2070 (see Figure 3.9). Energy oped by the International Finance Corporation (IFC), consumption and emissions vary significantly among the World Bank team collected data from five “deep different income groups: low-income housing con- dive” cities (Chennai, Indore, New Delhi, Surat, and tributes much less to emissions than middle- and Thiruvananthapuram) as input values. Models were high-income housing types.67 The gaps will widen structured to estimate different outcomes and over time as the share of housing production in the impacts on energy consumption and GHG emis- low-income group will decrease due to economic sions under three different scenarios.66 The model- growth.68 ing results and their interpretation are summarized below. The installation of rooftop solar panels on existing houses can reduce energy consumption and carbon » Scenario 1, the Historical Trends scenario, assumes emissions by two-thirds. The Retrofitted scenario the continuation of historical trends in building simulation results show that energy consumption in design and energy consumption of households. the five cities can be reduced by approximately 64 » Scenario 2, the Retrofitted or Betterment scenario, percent on average simply by installing rooftop solar includes installing rooftop solar panels on all exist- panels to the existing (2022) housing stock. The miti- ing and future housing stock. gation effects are lower in New Delhi than in the other » Scenario 3, the Green Housing scenario introduces four cities, most likely due to their different climatic green housing design parameters that will improve conditions (see Figure 3.10). The reduction in CO2 the energy efficiency of the building envelope for emissions follows the same pattern as energy con- all new housing production in addition to the inclu- sumption; this is because emissions from household sion of rooftop solar panels for all existing and new use are entirely from energy consumption. As high- housing. and middle-income groups have much higher energy consumption and consequently much higher CO2 In the Historic Trends scenario, both energy con- emissions per household than the low-income group, sumption and carbon emissions would increase prioritizing interventions among high-income and significantly. The total energy consumption and CO2 middle-income groups would have larger mitigation 66 For each of the five cities, three scenarios were modelled for three time periods (2022, 2050, and 2070): S1 is the Historical Trends scenario with no intervention (using default value in the EDGE software), S2 includes an intervention to install rooftop solar panels to bring down energy consumption (based on the capacity of Solar PVs and the housing type), and S3 involves introducing efficient building envelope for green housing (including roof insulation, wall insulation, and efficient glazing) in addition to the installation of roof-top solar panels in all new housing production. In 2022, only S1 and S2 were modelled to compare energy consumption and carbon emission outcomes: the results were used to inform the potential for mitigation effects from “retrofitting” of the existing housing stock by installing solar panels on rooftops. For the two periods of 2050 and 2070, all three scenarios were modelled, based on the assumption that the new housing production starting from 2023 can adopt more progressive green housing interventions to improve building envelope performance under S3. 67 High Income Group (HIG) housing consumes 703 kwh per month on average, which is 1.5 times that of the Middle Income Group (MIG) (482 kwh per month) and 3.2 times that of the LIG (220 kwh per month). Among the eight housing types included in the simulations, we assume that the three types for the Low Income Group (LIG) do not have AC units, while the other five housing types for MIG and HIG all have AC units. The default values on the parameters for energy consumption and efficiency of AC units are provided in the EDGE software and these values are updated based on different scenarios. 68 It starts with a 32 percent-32 percent-35 percent distribution for LIG-MIG-HIG respectively in 2022 and is projected to change to 25 percent-36 percent-39 percent in 2070. 77 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA FIGURE 3.9 Total Energy Use and Emissions in Five Cities by Income Group in 2022, 2050, and 2070a 160.0 120.0 ENERGY CONSUMPTION (BILLION KWH) 140.0 100.0 EMISSION (MILLION TCO2) 120.0 80.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 60.0 40.0 40.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 2022 2022 2050 2050 2050 2070 2070 2070 Benchmark Retrofitted Historical Retrofitted Green Baseline Retrofitted Green S2 Trends S2 Housing S1 S2 Housing S3 LIG Energy use 5.8 2.9 11.1 5.9 5.9 16.0 9.1 9.1 MIG Energy use 15.5 8.7 39.4 24.0 20.8 69.6 45.4 40.5 HIG Energy use 32.4 13.8 80.7 38.5 33.8 142.1 75.5 67.9 LIG Emissions 4.1 2.0 7.7 4.1 4.1 11.4 6.6 6.6 MIG Emissions 11.1 6.1 27.9 16.9 14.7 49.0 31.9 28.5 HIG Emissions 23.0 9.8 56.9 27.3 24.0 100.8 53.2 47.8 Source: World Bank staff calculation using EDGE software.Note: a. The analysis includes three income groups: Low-income group (LIG), middle income group (MIG); high income group (HIG). There are also three typical housing types: Houses (H—1 floor for LIG and 2 floors for MIG and HIG); apartment in mid-rise buildings (AMR—5 floors); apartment in high-rise buildings (AHR—10 floors). There is a total of eight housing types for all three income groups, largely representative of the housing mix in Indian cities. FIGURE 3.10 Reduction in Energy Consumption and Operational Emissions in 2022 from Historical Trends Scenario to Retrofitted (Retrofitted with Solar Panels) Scenario (a) Household Energy Consumption Comparison in 2022 Under (b) Household Emissions Comparison in 2022 Under Two Two Different Scenarios (Baseline and Retrofitted) Different Scenarios (Baseline and Retrofitted) 7.0 90% 5.0 90% 6.3 6.4 4.5 4.6 81% 80% 81% 80% 4.5 4.3 6.0 70% 6.0 4.0 69% 70% 65% 65% 70% 66% 65% 5.0 3.5 3.5 60% 4.6 60% 3.2 4.1 3.0 2.9 4.0 50% 50% 2.5 3.0 40% 40% 2.0 37% 36% 2.2 30% 1.6 30% 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 20% 1.0 20% 0.8 1.0 10% 10% 0.5 0.0 0% 0.0 0% Delhi Chennai Indore Surat Thiruvanan- Delhi Chennai Indore Surat Thiruvanan- thapuram thapuram Average energy use per house (thousand kwh/year) - 2022 baseline Average emission per house ( tCO2/year) - 2022 baseline Average energy use per house (thousand kwh/year) - 2022 retrofitted Average emission per house ( tCO2/year) - 2022 with solar roof retrofitted with solar roof % Energy savings - from 2022 retrofitting % Emission reduction - from 2022 retrofitting Source: World Bank staff calculation using EDGE software. 78 03 Opportunities for Efficient, Resilient and Low-carbon Urban Development effects. However, interventions for solar panel instal- scenario is much smaller than the reduction from the lation among low-income groups would have larger Historical Trends scenario to the Retrofitted scenario poverty alleviation effects. This is because it would (Figure 3.11). This finding suggests that the installa- significantly reduce the households’ utility cost, hence tion of rooftop solar panels under the Retrofitted reducing the overall housing cost and leaving more scenario is more effective in terms of mitigation than disposable income for other essential expenses such other green housing design measures. as food, transport, education, and health. Green housing investments will require incremen- Applying green housing interventions to improve tal costs up-front that have different bearings the building envelope performance would fur- across different income groups. (Figure 3.12) illus- ther reduce energy consumption and carbon trates the different payback periods for investment emissions—but rooftop solar panels are the most in rooftop solar panels in the five cities for different effective mitigation measure. The Green Housing housing types. The average payback period for a ret- scenario analyzed includes use of roof insulation, rofit ranges from 3.1 years (for mid-rise apartment wall insulation, and efficient glazing for all new hous- housing for the middle-income group) to 7.7 years (for ing built after 2022. The results show an additional low-income individual house).69 The incremental cost reduction in both energy consumption and emissions, is higher in the case of low-income houses because but the magnitude of additional reduction from the of the low cost of the overall construction to begin Retrofitted scenario compared to the Green Housing with. It is worth noting that the “all-in” measures of FIGURE 3.11 Reduction in Energy Consumption and Operational Emissions in 2070. (a) Household Energy Consumption Comparison in 2070 among (b) Household CO2 Emissions Comparison in 2070 among Three Scenarios (Historical Trends, Retrofitted, and Green Housing) Three Scenarios (Historical Trends, Retrofitted, and Green Housing) 7.0 90% 5.0 90% 80% 4.5 80% 6.0 77% 77% 70% 4.0 70% 65% 65% 5.0 57% 3.5 59% 58% 60% 60% 3.0 58% 4.0 50% 50% 2.5 3.0 40% 40% 2.0 35% 30% 34% 30% 2.0 1.5 20% 20% 1.0 1.0 10% 0.5 10% - 0% - 0% Delhi Chennai Indore Surat Thiruvanan- Delhi Chennai Indore Surat Thiruvanan- thapuram thapuram Average energy use per house (thousand kwh/year) Average emission per house (tCO2/year) 2070 historical trends 2070 historical trends Average energy use per house (thousand kwh/year) Average emission per house (tCO2/year) 2070 retrofitted (solar roof only) 2070 retrofitted (solar roof only) Average energy use per house (thousand kwh/year) Average emission per house (tCO2/year) 2070 green housing 2070 green housing % Energy savings % Emission reduction from 2070 green housing interventions from 2070 green housing interventions Source: World Bank staff calculation using EDGE software. 69 The average payback period for additional green housing interventions to improve building envelope performance varies even more: It can be as long as 27 years for low-income high-rise apartment housing or as low as less than one year for high-income high-rise apartment housing. However, considering that housing is a durable asset that can last for decades, and given the projected rapid increase in the use of AIR-conditoners, even the longest payback period among all housing types is still reasonable and worth considering. 79 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA FIGURE 3.12 Payback Periods for Investment in Rooftop Solar Panels (a) Payback periods for the Investment in Solar panel installation (by city and housing type) 9.0 8.0 7.7 7.0 5.9 5.7 6.0 4.8 4.6 YEARS 5.0 4.0 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 LIG-H MIG-H HIG-H LIG-AMR MIG-AMR LIG-AHR MIG-AHR HIG-AHR Chennai Delhi Indore Surat Thiruvananthapuram Average (b) Payback periods for the Investment in Solar panel installation and efficient envelop (by city and housing type) 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 26.9 20.0 18.2 11.4 10.0 3.2 1.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 - LIG-H MIG-H HIG-H LIG-AMR MIG-AMR LIG-AHR MIG-AHR HIG-AHR Chennai Delhi Indore Surat Thiruvananthapuram Average Source: World Bank staff calculation using EDGE software. solar roofs and efficient envelopes can be recouped be needed to enable these groups to adopt green within three years for housing for the High-Income measures. The longer payback period in the case of Group (HIG) and Middle-Income Group (MIG). This short low-income housing is driven by the limited saving payback period suggests that it would be feasible to from energy uses, considering the low baseline to begin with (no use of AC and other appliances). make solar roofs and efficient envelopes mandatory for HIG and MIG housing. However, for economically India is expected to see significant investments in weaker sections and low-income-groups (LIG), the housing in the coming decades, but the additional initial costs of greener housing could be prohibi- costs of solar and green housing remain relatively tively high, and incentives and other support would modest. The average incremental cost to install solar 80 03 Opportunities for Efficient, Resilient and Low-carbon Urban Development panels on rooftops for all housing types in the five and, given the expected rapid growth of the urban pop- “deep dive” cities is estimated at 3 percent of the total ulation, transitioning urban passenger transport will construction cost. This translates to roughly $150 per require bringing down emissions at the same time as capita to install rooftop solar panels on all existing passenger travel demand increases rapidly. housing stock as of 2022 at a total cost of $210 billion (INR 16 trillion). For future housing stock, the extra TOD and compact city concepts to create livable cost of green housing interventions on new house communities can significantly reduce emissions. construction (improvement in building envelope, wall TOD is a compact mixed-use community development materials, ventilation, and windows, etc.) would be $50 within an average walking distance of about 10 minutes per person, adding up to approximately $66 billion (INR of a transit stop. TOD in cities promotes public trans- 5 trillion) for every decade between now and 2070. port, walking, and cycling, including e-bikes, to reduce the need for motorized trips.70 Experience in other countries shows that TOD can provide a foundation FIGURE 3.13 Investment Needs Per Decade in the Housing Sector (in the for green, resilient, safe, and inclusive cities.71 Indian Retrofitted and Green Housing scenario) cities are implementing these concepts, supported by the National TOD Policy72 and other initiatives launched 1000 by the government,73 but have opportunity to imple- 900 ment them at scale. The modeling showed that imple- 800 mentation of TOD approaches could reduce passenger CONSTANT 2020 US$ BILLION 700 transport emissions in cities by 15 percent compared 600 to Historical Trends. Finally, multimodal integration 500 can help provide seamless connectivity from first- 400 to-last mile, making public transport journeys faster, 300 safer, and more affordable, and increasing their com- 200 petitiveness compared to personal transport. 100 0 Improvements in road transport and municipal 2022-2030 2031-2040 2041-2050 2051-2060 2061-2070 waste management together with a transition to TIME PERIOD/SCENARIO cleaner energy sources will help reduce urban air Retrofitted Scenario Green Housing Scenario pollution. India experiences high air pollution levels. The situation is critical in many cities. Exposure to Source: World Bank staff calculations (2023). such high levels of air pollution has significant health impacts and implications for economic productivity. 3.5 SYNERGIES WITH URBAN MOBILITY AND AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS 3.6 EFFICIENT RESILIENT AND URBAN Facilitating a modal shift toward non-motorized and DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS FOR INDIAN public transit in cities can help reduce overall GHG CITIES emissions while improving air quality. A large share If multiple changes are made simultaneously, sub- of passenger transport emissions are from urban areas stantial potential exists for low carbon pathway 70 Maheshwari, Richa; Grigolon, Anna; Brussel. “Evaluating TOD in the context of local area planning using mixed-methods.” Case Studies on Transport Policy, Volume 10, Issue 2, 2022, p. 1015-1025. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2022.03.013 71 “Transforming Cities with Transit-Oriented Development.” Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26405 72 "National Transit Oriented Development (TOD) Policy." Available at: https://mohua.gov.in/upload/whatsnew/59a4070e85256Transit_Oriented_ Developoment_Policy.pdf 73 Cycle4All Challenge, Streets for People Challenge. Available at: https://smartnet.niua.org/indiastreetchallenge/. 81 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA in Indian cities. These changes include four key of already existing standards and regulations. The improvements (see Box 3.2): (i) urban compactness; housing sector, for instance, has broadly applica- (ii) improving municipal services, especially SWM; (iii) ble policies that include India’s National Mission on green and energy efficient housing; and (iv) invest- Sustainable Habitat (NMSH) and NMSH 2.0, which ing in public transport, as well as increasing resource identify green buildings as a key policy intervention efficiency. The Best Case scenario assessed in area. Several building policies and codes encour- this report estimates that carbon emissions could age energy efficiency in residential and commercial decrease by as much as 80 percent between 2020 buildings. These include the Model Building Bylaws of and 2050. In the four cities reviewed (Chennai, Indore, 2016, the revised National Building Code of 2016, the New Delhi, and Surat), this would require multiple updated Energy Conservation Building Code of 2017, changes by 2050: average urban density to increase and the Eco-Niwas Samhita of 2018. Energy-efficient by 41 percent by 2050; the amount of waste treated to building design bylaws should be integrated into reach 75 percent; access to amenities to increase by existing municipal codes to improve implementation. well over 400 percent; average energy consumption State governments have also developed state-level to decrease by 45 percent; and average water con- guidelines for buildings. sumption to go down by 8 percent. Finally, more data and information should be made To realize the full mitigation potential of India’s available to inform decision making on mitiga- cities, regulatory, policy, and operational mea- tion strategies and performance. For example, in sures need to be developed. For some sectors, this the housing sector, city-level databases of building governance and institutional framework still needs typologies, condition, age, and energy efficiency to be elaborated. SWM, for example, lacks a fully could be developed. Data on energy consumption in coherent framework, although various laws, poli- buildings should be made publicly available. Baseline cies, standards, and guidelines exist. Improvements are needed in technical and emission standards for carbon emissions should be established at the neigh- disposal facilities as well as waste minimization borhood level through available diagnostic measures and diversion policies. There is a need to stop open to identify priority interventions. Progress on the dumping and introduce mandatory design specifica- implementation of energy-efficient building codes tions and standards for the development, operation, and appliances as well as energy audits at the build- and monitoring of disposal infrastructure. ing block level should be monitored. This kind of information will allow policymakers to better gauge Realizing urban mitigation potential for other sec- the pros and cons of specific interventions across tors will require enforcement and implementation sectors. 82 03 Opportunities for Efficient, Resilient and Low-carbon Urban Development BOX 3.2 Improving Low-Carbon Development in Indian Cities: A Four-point Agenda Climate resilient and low-carbon development in Indian cities can best be achieved by four key improvements: (i) urban compactness; (ii) improving municipal services, especially solid waste management; (iii) green and energy efficient housing; and (iv) investing in public transport: Metros are an important part of efficient and low carbon urban development. New Delhi metro station © Natsuko Kikutake. Urban Compactness Indian cities will need to develop a strategy to achieve compactness. Cities can better manage their expansion. This will require a spatial planning and design paradigm that facilitates increasing density in built-up areas through several mechanisms. First, density should be enabled through sustainable TOD. This involves the promotion of multi- modal mobility through a system of public spaces, bike paths, and public transport routes. Second, density should be facilitated by incentives for vertical development, using zoning and building code regulations that encourage mixed- use development and taller buildings. Third, cities should seek out opportunities for redevelopment and adaptive reuse. The streamlining of approval processes can help transform brownfield sites. Fourth, cities should optimize land use, reduce construction and plan appropriate landuse in risk prone areas such as green recreational spaces in areas exposed to flooding that can provide public parks and absorb excess flood water. Improving Municipal Services, Especially SWM India will need to invest in the provision of green and resilient municipal services to curb urban emissions, spe- cifically from SWM. Reducing service sector emissions will require local mitigation roadmaps with clear priorities, milestones, and timeframes to facilitate fundamental changes. For instance, for the SWM sector, significant invest- ments are needed to sustain current levels of waste management, acquire separation and disposal infrastructure, and advance low-carbon alternatives. Landfilling, with adequate methane recovery features, is the most financially viable solution. Waste generation needs to be minimized through behaviour change, recycling, and reuse. It will be essential to establish a system with environmental controls that can absorb increasing volumes over time to curb GHG emissions. 83 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA BOX 3.2 (cont.) The financial sustainability of municipal services needs to be improved to facilitate these changes. Indian cities have inadequate cost recovery for municipal services. Service charges are often not even sufficient to cover opera- tion and maintenance (O&M) costs. A sample of 14 large and medium-sized cities shows that, in 2021, they recovered less than 50 percent of O&M costs for municipal water supply services. Cities like Amritsar recover only one quarter or less. This undermines financial sustainability and the ability of cities to invest in service delivery. Greater empha- sis needs to be placed on creating and enhancing revenue sources. Fiscal transfers to service delivery agencies— including SWM agencies—need to be predictable and based on a clear set of priorities. Mumbai skyline at night. © Sanjog Mhatre. Green and Energy-Efficient Housing There are significant opportunities for reducing emissions in the housing sector. Among green housing measures, the installation of solar panels on rooftops is the most cost-effective way to achieve both energy efficiency and emissions reduction. Green housing interventions should initially target high-income housing types, which have the highest rates of energy consumption and emissions. The government should also consider applying planning regulations to promote more compact, multifamily housing development to reduce the urban carbon footprint while meeting the growing housing demand through high-density housing development. Although green housing interven- tions have a cost, payback periods are usually much shorter than the lifespan of the housing asset. Since housing generates emissions for its entire lifespan, these interventions need to be taken sooner rather than later. Public Transport Well-planned shifts in urban transport can help Indian cities transition to low carbon pathway. The challenge of transitioning urban passenger transport is considerable. There is a growing need for reduced emissions and for bet- ter air quality, yet urban passenger travel demand is continually increasing, expected to rise by a further 42 percent by 2030. A modal shift toward non-motorized and public transport in cities would help reduce overall GHG emissions significantly while improving air quality. TOD and compact city concepts can reduce emissions by up to 20 percent against Historical Trend scenarios. Multimodal integration can help provide seamless connectivity from first to last mile, making public transport journeys faster, safer, and more affordable, increasing their competitiveness against personal transport. Improvements in road transport, together with improved municipal waste management and a transition to cleaner energy, would greatly help reduce the high levels of air pollution. 84 O4 FINANCING CLIMATE RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation in Mumbai City, India. © SJPailkar. 85 This chapter assesses finance needs to support 4.1 URBAN FINANCE NEEDS FOR CLIMATE climate action in Indian cities and examines how ACTION IN INDIA the public and private sectors can help to close the financing gap and scale up urban climate solu- In light of India’s rapid urbanization and the window of tions. Chapters II and III analyzed the ways Indian cit- opportunity to integrate climate action into all future ies can adapt to and manage the increasing impacts growth, this section examines the investment needs from urban flooding and warming, as well as ways to for climate-resilient and low-carbon urban infra- incorporate low-carbon development in urban plan- structure and services up to 2050 and 2070. ning and management. This chapter assesses how to Estimating Investment Needs for Climate-Resilient finance the needed climate actions up to 2070. and Low-Carbon Urban Infrastructure and Services The chapter is divided into three sections. Section Estimates of financing needs for climate actions 4.1 provides an overview of the finance needs of in this chapter are based on an analysis conducted India’s cities for climate action, building on previous for this report at two levels of investment: (1) the analyses that have been updated and expanded for investment in urban infrastructure to current stan- this report. Section 4.2 provides an overview of the dards that will be needed to account for the expected public sector role in driving and financing urban cli- increase in the urban population by 2050 and mate solutions. Section 4.3 discusses the role of the 2070; and (2) the investment needed to make cities private sector in implementing and financing these climate-resilient. solutions, highlighting the barriers encountered and making recommendations for improving the role of The first step was to assess urban infrastructure private finance. investment costs assuming current standards. This step calculated the percentage share of India’s GDP URBAN POPULATION PROJECTIONS AND INVESTMENT NEEDS BY 2050 AND 2070 Based on the conservative urbanization projection of reaching 43% urbanization by 2050 and 52% by 2070, as much as $2.4 trillion could be needed by 2050, and $10.9 trillion by 2070. 43% by 2050 52% by 2070 Assuming the moderate urbanization projection of reaching 54% urbanization by 2050 and 66% by 2070, up to $2.9 trillion might be required by 2050, and as much as $13.4 trillion by 2070. 54% by 2050 66% by 2070 86 04 Financing Climate Resilient Urban Development In India needed for urban infrastructure investment at cur- 27 percent would be required to make urban infra- rent standards by 2050 and 2070. This step built on structure low-emission and climate-resilient. Using the 2011 work of GoI’s High Powered Expert Committee this benchmark, the minimum and maximum invest- (HPEC) which estimated investment requirements for ment needs of Indian cities for low-emission and cli- urban infrastructure services nationwide.74 The HPEC mate-resilient urban infrastructure were calculated.78 study estimated India’s total investment needs for urban infrastructure and municipal services at the Based on the conservative urbanization projec- equivalent of 1.14 percent of GDP in 2031. This first tion, as much as $2.4 trillion could be needed by step also considered the similar World Bank 2022 2050, and $10.9 trillion by 2070. The analysis (see estimate75 of urban infrastructure investment needs Table 4.1) found that an estimated investment of 1.67 of an average 1.18 percent of GDP for 2021-2036. to 1.95 percent of projected GDP would be needed to meet climate-resilient and low-carbon infrastructure Taking these benchmarks, future urban infrastruc- and services needs in Indian towns and cities by 2050 ture investment needs were worked out for 2050 and 2.13 to 2.48 percent of projected GDP by 2070. and 2070 as a percentage share of GDP. These This is equivalent to approximately $2.16–2.41 trillion estimates assumed better-quality urban infrastruc- between 2021 and 2050 and $9.39–10.95 trillion by ture and an increased share of the total population 2070 (constant 2020 prices).79 projected to be living in urban areas. It was assumed that, by 2050, the quality of urban infrastructure of Assuming the ‘moderate urbanization projection’, Class IB municipal bodies would equal that of Class up to $2.9 trillion might be required by 2050, and as IA municipal bodies,76 and that the quality of urban much as $13.4 trillion by 2070. Under the ‘moderate’ infrastructure in smaller municipal bodies would be projection, the analysis found that 2.06 to 2.41 per- improved to a minimum of the standard for Class 1B cent of GDP would be needed for meeting climate-re- municipal bodies by the year 2070. Two urbanization silient and low-carbon infrastructure services needs scenarios were assumed: (i) a conservative urbaniza- in Indian towns and cities by 2050. This is equivalent tion projection (the urban population would reach 43 to $2.47 to 2.88 trillion 2021 to 2050. Needs by 2070 percent of India’s total population by 2050 and 52); would be from 2.68 to 3.12 percent of projected GDP, and (ii) a moderate urbanization projection (the urban equivalent to $1.52 to 13.45 trillion 2021-2070 (con- population reaching 54 percent of the total popula- stant 2020 prices). tion by 2050 and 66 percent by 2070). Meeting Financing Needs for Climate Action in In the second step, the additional costs for making Indian Cities urban infrastructure low-emission and climate-re- Climate actions in India’s cities are largely viewed silient were identified. These estimates were based as public goods and are mainly supported by public on the 2015 report State of City Climate Finance,77 which finance. Indian central and state governments pro- estimated that incremental capital investment of 9 to vide most of this public finance (75 percent of the 74 HPEC (2011). Available from: http://indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/Estimating%20Investment%20Requirements_Urban%20Infrastructure%20 Services%20in%20India_HPEC%20Report_MoUD_2011.pdf 75 "Financing India’s Urban Infrastructure Needs: Constraints to commercial financing and prospects for policy action." World Bank, 2022. 76 HPEC (2011) categorized municipal bodies into three classes: Class IA cities with population (larger municipalities with the highest infrastructure quality), Class IB cities (medium size and quality), and “other” (smaller municipalities with lower infrastructure quality)—with different per capita infrastructure costs assumed for each class. Class IA cities have population above five million (megacities). Class sIB cities have population between five and one million. Class IC cities have population between 0.1 and one million. Reference for city classification available at: https://smartnet.niua. org/sites/default/files/resources/HUDCO%20Phase%20II.pdf 77 "State of City Climate Finance." Cities Climate Finance Leadership Alliance (CCFLA). New York, 2015. Available at: www.citiesclimatefinance.org 78 Because seismic resilience has been included in Indian building codes since 2002, it was assumed that infrastructure cost estimates under the first step take seismic risks into account. In any case, seismic risk is not influenced by climate change, and thus is not expected to increase over time. 79 Other methods for estimating investment needs in urban infrastructure are discussed in a background paper (Ravikant, 2024) to this report. 87 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA TABLE 4.1 Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Urban Infrastructure Investment Needs in Indian Cities by 2050 and 2070 Conservative Urbanization Scenario Urban Investment needs as % of GDP* Cumulative investment needs from 2021 in $ trillion population Including climate as % of total At current resilient and low At current standards Including climate resilient and low carbon population standards carbon investment** investment** By 2050 43% 1.52% 1.67–1.95% $1.98 trillion (2021 to 2050) $2.16–2.41 trillion (2021 to 2050) By 2070 52% 1.95% 2.13–2.48% $8.62 trillion (2021 to 2070) $9.39–10.95 trillion (2021 to 2070) Moderate Urbanization Scenario Urban Investment needs as % of GDP Cumulative investment needs from 2021 in $ trillion population Including climate as % of total At current Including climate resilient and low resilient and low At current standards population standards carbon investment** carbon investment** By 2050 54% 1.89% 2.06–2.41% $2.27 trillion (2021 to 2050) $2.47–2.88 trillion (2021 to 2050) By 2070 66% 2.46% 2.68–3.12% $10.57 trillion (2021 to 2070) $11.52–13.45 trillion (2021 to 2070) Source: Authors’ calculation building on UN Population data, GoI GDP Projections, and Financing India’s urban infrastructure needs (World Bank, 2022). Note: Calculations assume constant prices 2020; exchange rate $1 =73 INR *Urban Investment needs include those related to urban transport, basic municipal services (water supply, sanitation, sewerage, stormwater drainage), SWM, and social and community infrastructure (excluding housing and slum upgrading). ** An incremental 9–27 percent of investment cost above current standards is assumed for making urban infrastructure low-emission and climate-resil- ient, including the cost of flood-resilient design standards for exposed municipal infrastructure, and use of green technology and clean energy. cost of urban infrastructure, with ULBs contribut- India has made significant international commit- ing 15 percent from their own revenues (World Bank, ments to addressing climate challenges. Despite 2022). Private sources finance only a very small share having no binding obligation under the United Nations of urban infrastructure needs. In recent years, the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), national government has supported many urban “mis- India announced in 2009 a voluntary goal to reduce sions,” including those for “smart cities,” and states the emissions intensity of GDP by 20–25 percent by have developed state adaptation plans. The roles of 2020 in comparison to the 2005 level. In fact, between the public and private sectors in implementing and 2005 and 2016, India achieved this goal with a 24 per- financing climate action are discussed in Sections cent reduction in the emissions intensity of its GDP.80 4.2 and 4.3 below. Subsequently, under the 2015 Paris Agreement, India submitted its NDCs to the UNFCCC outlining targets for the period 2021–2030. India’s Updated First NDC81 4.2 THE ROLE OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN under the Paris Agreement (2021-2030) includes URBAN CLIMATE SOLUTIONS AND THEIR reducing emissions intensity of its GDP by 45 percent FINANCING by 2030 from 2005 level, achieving about 50 percent cumulative electric power installed capacity from India’s Climate Commitments and Their Relevance non-fossil fuel-based energy resources by 2030 with for Indian cities 80 “Policies to Achieve Sustainable Development Goals.” (Press Release) Government of India, Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change. July 21, 2022. Available at: https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1843400 81 Available at: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-08/India%20Updated%20First%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contrib.pdf 88 04 Financing Climate Resilient Urban Development In India the help of transfer of technology and low-cost inter- development actions are relatively new concerns for national finance including from Green Climate Fund Indian cities, and they are yet to be fully integrated (GCF), and creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5 within urban planning policies and programs. The to 3 billion tons of CO2 equivalent through additional role of the central government is to support national forest and tree cover by 2030. This update to India’s policies and programs on urban planning and devel- existing NDC is a step forward towards its long-term opment aligned to macroeconomic parameters at goal of reaching net-zero by 2070. the national level. The basic national framework for urban planning and development plans and policies India has developed multiple climate mitigation was established in the Town and Country Planning and disaster risk management policies. GoI has Act,84 which empowers ULBs to prepare and imple- announced over 150 climate policies at the national ment plans.85 Later acts support state-level town level since 2005, many of which are comparable to planning and urban development policies and institu- advanced instruments in high-income countries.82 tional frameworks, including the formation of munic- Climate mitigation policies cover a range of sectors and ipal corporations and urban development authorities. diverse policy instruments. In the 1990s and 2000s, the State governments are responsible for: (i) defining focus was on agriculture, but from 2010 forward, the urban development policies at the state level; (ii) policy focus extended to energy, transport, and con- establishing local government institutions to imple- struction. Initially, the main instruments were strategic ment the urban policy agenda; and (iii) supporting planning, the establishment of an institutional frame- urban programs and projects. work, and setting product and industry standards, but in more recent years, a much broader range of policy Disaster risk management needs to be better aligned instruments has been deployed to reduce emissions with urban planning and development. Disaster risk and support low-carbon technologies. management policy and practice have developed The results of these policies have been consid- relatively recently and separately from the urban erable. India has drastically reduced deaths from planning and development paradigm of Indian cities. extreme events. Improvements in weather forecast- The National Disaster Management Act was adopted ing and the development of early warning and evac- in 2005 (GoI, 2005), and State and District Disaster uation systems have successfully reduced human Management Plans were approved in 2007 and 2014, losses from climate-related events, with up to 94 respectively. The National Disaster Management Plan percent reduction in cyclone-related deaths in the (NDMP) was adopted in 2019. These instruments have last 20 years.83 In addition, India’s power sector has led to the formation of national, state, district and achieved a paradigm shift toward renewables, driven local level institutional structures. Moving forward, by concerted policy efforts and declining costs. there are opportunities to improve synergies and con- Development of new renewable energy capacity has vergence with urban planning and development.86 exceeded new coal power development every year since 2017. Similarly, climate action needs to be integrated with urban planning and development. The gov- Urban planning is largely decentralized to state and ernment has taken several actions to improve action city level. Climate and disaster-related planning and on climate change (see Box 4.1). The National Action 82 Climate Policy Database. Available from: https://climatepolicydatabase.org/. 83 Ray et al. (2021), Mahapatra el et al. (2018), Mohanty et al. (2015). 84 Originally passed in 1947 and amended in 1960, and later in 1992 with the 74th Constitutional Amendment Act. 85 Who Plans the Indian City? The Anomalies of India’s Urban Planning System. Mathew Idiculla, November 22, 2021. Available online at: https://casi.sas. upenn.edu/iit/mathewidiculla 86 Reforms in Urban Planning Capacity in India. Parliamentary Committee Report. Available at: https://prsindia.org/policy/report-summaries/reforms-in- urban-planning-capacity-in-india 89 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) 2008, adopted after there is an approved plan, many towns struggle with the Paris Agreement, supports State Action Plans for implementation due to lack of resources and tech- Climate Change (SAPCC) 2009, together with city- nical skills.88 On the other hand, climate risk and level climate actions. Several Indian cities, includ- disaster response have not been widely integrated ing Pune, Chennai, Indore, Surat, Coimbatore, Kochi, into urban plans, policies, and programs. The key Gorakhpur, Bhubaneshwar, Guwahati, and Shimla challenges89 are: (i) lack of a common framework for have been formulating and implementing urban cli- climate and disaster risk assessment in urban plan- mate actions.87 Smart Cities Mission, launched in ning; (ii) lack of robust and granular data for urban 2015, has supported many Indian cities on adapta- climate and disaster risk modeling; (iii) limited tion and mitigation agenda together with other urban technical skills and resources to undertake, plan, development needs. See Box 4.1. and implement risk reduction actions; and (iv) the cross-sectoral nature of climate and disaster risk There is a need to both strengthen master plan- management, which makes it hard for ULBs to coor- ning for urban development and integrate climate dinate across sectoral actions (e.g., to coordinate and disaster management into urban planning. risk reduction with water, transport, energy, land Better integration of urban planning, climate and use etc. for one geographical area). disaster acts, plans, policies and programs will help cities in improving resilient urban planning and What is needed is a roadmap, including implemen- development. Figure 4.1 illustrates the hierarchy of tation and financing plans, to guide cities. The instruments for planning, climate action, and disas- roadmap should advise on how to assess local climate ter management at national, state and local levels. and disaster risk challenges, relate these challenges This is critical, as on the one hand, India is facing to the various climate and disaster risk management challenges in developing and implementing master targets, and integrate risks, targets and actions into plans for all cities. GoI has published an assessment the local development agenda and urban infrastruc- that more than half (52 percent) of Indian towns and ture investments. The roles of different levels of gov- cities lack an approved master plan. Even where ernment can also be identified. FIGURE 4.1 Urban Planning, Disaster, and Climate: Key Policies and Plans in India National Policy on Disaster Town and Country Planning National Action Plan for National Determined Management (2009) Act Climate Change (2008) Contributions (2022) National Disaster Management Plan (2019) State Town Planning and State Action Plan for Climate Change (2009) State and District Disaster Urban Development Guidance Management Plan (2007, 2014) Urban Master Plan City/Local Climate Change Action Plan Source: Authors’ schematic based on “Financing Adaptation in India” (CPI 2024). 87 NIUA and TERI, 2020. Mainstreaming Urban Resilience: Lessons from Indian cities. Policy Brief, New Delhi 88 "Reforms in Urban Planning Capacity in India." Parliamentary Committee Report. Available at: https://prsindia.org/policy/report-summaries/reforms- in-urban-planning-capacity-in-india 89 "Financing Adaptation in India." CPI, 2024. 90 https://moef.gov.in/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Pg0152.pdf 91 https://vikaspedia.in/energy/policy-support/energy-efficiency/national-mission-for-enhanced-energy-efficiency 92 http://cpheeo.gov.in/cms/national-mission-on-sustainable-habitat.php 90 04 Financing Climate Resilient Urban Development In India BOX 4.1 Key National and State Initiatives on Urban Climate Actions The National Action Plan for Climate Change and Its Eight Missions The National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC) and its missions provide the overall framework for climate action. The Prime Ministerial Council on Climate Change, created in 2007, mandated the preparation of the NAPCC,91 which was released on June 30, 2008. Its purpose is to enable India to adapt to climate change and enhance the ecological sustainability of the development path. The NAPCC proposes eight national “missions,” which are outlined below. These missions are multi-pronged, long-term, and integrated strategies for achieving key goals in the context of climate change. They provide the overall framework and support for climate action at state and city level. The National Action Plan for Climate Change and its eight Missions » National Solar Mission—To establish India as a global leader in solar energy by creating the policy conditions for solar technology diffusion across the country as quickly as possible. » National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency (NMEEE)—To strengthen the market for energy efficiency by creating a conducive regulatory and policy regime and fostering innovative and sustainable business models for the energy efficiency sector.92 » National Mission on Sustainable Habitat93—To develop sustainable habitat standards that lead to robust develop- ment strategies while simultaneously addressing climate change-related concerns, including in the preparation of city development plans, comprehensive mobility plans, and capacity building. » National Water Mission93—To ensure integrated water resource management in order to conserve water, minimize waste, and ensure more equitable distribution both across and within states. » National Mission on Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystems—To prevent the melting of the Himalayan glaciers and protect biodiversity in the Himalayan region.94 » National Mission for Green India (NGIM)95—To put greening96 in the context of climate change adaptation and mit- igation. Greening is meant to enhance ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration and storage (i.e., in for- ests and other ecosystems), hydrological services, and biodiversity and other provisioning services such as fuel, fodder, small timber, and non-timber forest products (NTFPs). » National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA)97—To make agriculture more productive, sustainable, remu- nerative, and climate resilient by promoting: (i) location-specific integrated or composite farming systems; (ii) soil and moisture conservation measures; (iii) comprehensive soil health management; (iv) efficient water manage- ment practices; and (v) mainstreaming rain-fed technologies. » National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change98—To build a vibrant and dynamic knowledge system that would inform and support national action for responding effectively to the objective of ecologically sustain- able development. 93 http://nwm.gov.in/ 94 http://dst.gov.in/sites/default/files/NMSHE_June_2010.pdf 95 https://pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=103978 96 http://www.jkforest.gov.in/pdf/gim/GIM_Mission-Document-1.pdf 97 https://pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage.aspx?PRID=1556469 98 https://dst.gov.in/sites/default/files/NMSKCC_mission%20document%201.pdf 91 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA BOX 4.1 (cont.) Centrally Sponsored Plans for Urban Development GoI has sponsored multiple “urban missions” in partnership with state and local governments. These centrally sponsored plans include the: (i) Smart City Mission (SCM); (ii) two phases of the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT); (iii) two phases of the Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM); and (iv) Jawahar Lal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM). State Action Plans for Climate Change In 2009, following the launch of the NAPCC, the central government directed states to draft SAPCCs that were aligned with the NAPCC. The objective of SAPCCs is to document the unique vulnerabilities to climate risks at state level and to lay out planned interventions that both respond to physical climate change and activate a transition to a lower-carbon economy. These interventions may include strategies for mitigation and adaptation across different sectors, such as agriculture, transport, and energy. As of July 2023, all 28 states had published at least one ver- sion of their SAPCCs, covering 98 percent of the Indian population. The level of ambition and comprehensiveness of the strategies differs across states. Some states have released thorough action plans with state-level vulnerability assessments, timelines, and budget estimates; others rely on national data for their vulnerability assessments and outline only high-level solutions.99 The Climate Center for Cities GoI has set up a one-stop-shop—the Climate Centre for Cities (C-Cube)—to help integrate climate considerations into urban planning and infrastructure investment. With the aim of mainstreaming climate actions in Indian cities and establishing a one-stop shop for climate-informed urban development, the National Institute of Urban Affairs (NIUA) with support from the Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs (MoHUA) established the C-Cube in June 2020. The vision of the Centre is to “build climate actions in cities.” There are two objectives: (i) to help cities mainstream climate actions through collaboration with stakeholders and improved planning and impact monitoring; and (ii) to integrate climate variability and climate change considerations in all urban infrastructure projects. C-Cube has helped create partnerships and improve readiness. C-Cube has developed the Climate Smart Cities Assessment Framework and has surveyed 126 large cities in India, with more surveys in progress. It has created partnerships with national and international organizations and practitioners who are providing technical assistance (e.g., city Climate Action Plan [CAPs], disaster management plans, flood and water stagnation risk assessments, water resource management plans, vulnerability assessments, GHG inventories, etc.). The survey of 126 cities100 shows a national average “readiness” score of just 30 percent. Clearly, Indian cities need to do much more to improve climate actions (see Box 4.2). Smart Cities Mission: The SCM, launched in 2015 has played a key role in promoting energy efficiency, enhancing climate resilience and supporting low-carbon urban development. With over 7,300 projects completed across 100 cities, SCM highlights how urban transformation can contribute to climate actions. Key achievements and initiatives are given below. 99 https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/sustainability/our-insights/paving-the-way-to-resilience-strengthening-public-sector-adaptation- planning-and-execution#/ 100 Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs in association with the Climate Centre for Cities, National Institute of Urban Affairs New Delhi–Climate Smart Cities Assessment Framework 2.0. Cities Readiness Report. June 2021. 92 04 Financing Climate Resilient Urban Development In India BOX 4.1 (cont.) • Projects in SCM have emphasized public transit-oriented development, intelligent traffic management systems, and non-motor- ized transport (NMT). URBAN MOBILITY • Electric vehicles (EVs) and charging stations are being deployed in cities. & AIR QUALITY • Efforts align with the National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) and target reduced emissions from urban transport. • Over 1,500 Smart Mobility projects have been completed in 60 Smart Cities, including pedestrianization initiatives, cycle track development, bicycle sharing, and enhanced public transport systems. • Smart Cities have adopted solar energy systems, LED lighting, and energy-efficient building designs. Greenfield projects integrate ENERGY sustainable energy frameworks. EFFICIENCY & • 666 Smart Energy projects have been completed, including LED streetlight installation and rooftop solar panels. 79 Smart Cities RENEWABLES have installed more than 16 lakh LED/Solar streetlights. 63 Smart Cities have installed 179 MW of solar panels WATER & • Smart Cities implement rainwater harvesting, wastewater recycling, and solid waste management (SWM) systems. • Over 1,400 WASH (Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene) projects have been completed addressing water supply, drainage, and solid waste. WASTE • To manage urban flooding events, 53 Smart Cities have cumulatively laid more than 1600 km of stormwater drains, while 45 cities MANAGEMENT have cumulatively laid more than 2500 km of sewerage lines • Smart Cities incorporate green spaces, biodiversity preservation, and climate-sensitive designs into urban planning. Parks with GREEN INFRA & open-air gyms and vibrant public contribute to better urban liveability while acting as carbon sinks. BIODIVERSITY • 1,283 vibrant public space projects have been completed, enhancing biodiversity, and contributing to a reduction in urban temperatures. INTEGRATED • ICCCs are transformative in enabling data-driven climate action in Smart Cities. ICCCs aggregate and analyse data from COMMAND & environmental sensors, traffic systems, and utility networks to optimize resource use and reduce emissions. CONTROL • ICCCs in 40 cities are directly connected to environmental quality monitors, facilitating real-time responses to air and water quality CENTER (ICCCs) issues. • C-CUBE as a one stop shop to support capacity building and knowledge retention for mainstreaming climate change action in CLIMATE CENTRE Indian cities. • City Investments to Innovate, Integrate and Sustain (CITIIS) is a sub-component of the SCM which aim at providing financial FOR CITIES and technical support for developing climate resilient urban infrastructure in India cities under five thematic areas – namely (C-CUBE) energy efficiency and green buildings, urban planning, green cover, and biodiversity, mobility and air quality, waste management, and water resource management. Source: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs, India. Financing and Accounting for Climate-related usually not tracked under a “climate” heading. There Urban Investment are exceptions: Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC), Current urban climate-related investment is very for example, includes a line item for climate change limited—and is often not captured by the account- in its annual budget and an allocation of Rs.0.35 crore ing system. A review of the budgets and account- was earmarked for the financial years 2021 and 2022. ing statements selected cities indicates that they Although these amounts were not actually spent in spend no more than 2-3 percent of their budget on either year, the allocation is at least a first step. climate-related activities.101 In addition, the reve- The High Cost of Investing in Climate-resilient and nues and capital expenditures of these ULBs (and of Low-carbon Cities ULBs in India in general) are already small. However, the accuracy of data on climate-related spending is India will need to rapidly increase the share of GDP weak because this spending is generally not sepa- allocated to urban infrastructure investments, rately labeled. For example, spending on urban flood even without taking into account climate-related control and drainage is clearly climate-related but is needs. Estimates of India’s spending on urban infra- structure in recent years102 are approximately 0.68 101 Based on primary data collected from selected cities. 102 Capital investment in urban infrastructure reached $16.5 billion in 2018, equivalent to $37 per capita or 0.68 percent of GDP, and averaging $10.6 billion annually (Athar, White, and Goyal. “Financing India’s urban infrastructure needs: Constraints to commercial financing and prospects for policy action.” Washington, D.C. World Bank, 2022). 93 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA percent of GDP (2018) or about $37 per capita, much Absorptive and implementation capacity for lower than many comparable countries. To support urban infrastructure delivery is low. Large cities urban development in the coming years under con- across India have generally not been able to fully servative growth projections, even without taking any spend their capital budgets in recent years. A review account of climate issues, the analysis in Section 4.1 of 10 large urban local governments across the above (see Table 4.1) shows that India would need to country showed that the cities were able to spend more than double the share of the GDP it allocates for only two-thirds of their cumulative capital budget urban infrastructure development, up from the cur- over the previous three fiscal years (World Bank, rent 0.68 percent to 1.52 percent by 2050 and to 1.95 2022). Slow execution on several recent flagship GoI percent by 2070. If urbanization trends are higher, a urban missions points to constraints in implemen- tation capacity. For example, over the last six fiscal higher share of GDP would need to be allocated: 1.89 years, cities across India have executed only about percent by 2050 and 2.46 percent by 2070. one-fifth of the cumulative cost of approved proj- When climate-related investment is factored in, ects under the SCM and AMRUT. even higher shares of GDP will need to be allocated. The overall scale of financing at city levels is rel- Estimates are that, to achieve climate-resilient and atively low, with OSRs contributing a declining low-carbon infrastructure investment, between 1.67 share and cities increasingly dependent on fiscal and 1.95 percent of GDP would be required by 2050, transfers. The total income of all ULBs nationwide and between 2.13 and 2.48 percent would be required from all sources remained flat at around 1 percent of by 2070. Again, needs would be significantly higher if GDP during the FY2011 to 2018 period. OSRs contrib- urban areas grow faster (see Table 4.1). uted a declining share, dropping from three-quarters of total municipal revenue nationwide to two-thirds Limited Public Finance and Low Absorptive over the same period. The cause was the slow growth Capacity in OSRs relative to the fiscal transfers from GoI and Most urban infrastructure is financed through state governments on which cities have become intergovernmental fiscal transfers, but only a increasingly dependent. small part has been climate-related. Total capital investment in cities has averaged only $10.6 billion Property taxes and charges for municipal services per year in the past decade (2011–18). Compare that contribute well below global norms. The growth in to the approximately $175–204 billion per year that property tax collection (the largest OSR) has been particularly slow. Property tax represents a far lower will be needed by 2050 (see Table 4.1). State trans- share of GDP (0.15 percent) than is the average for fers and own source revenues (OSR) are low and com- low- and middle-income countries (0.3–0.6 percent mercial financing plays a minor role. Most financing of GDP).103 In addition, cost recovery by urban utilities for urban infrastructure comes from GoI fiscal sup- is also on average lower than in comparator coun- port, largely from the urban missions discussed (Box tries such as Brazil and Mexico. Low service charges 4.1). A small share of this support is for climate-re- for municipal services undermine the financial sus- lated investment. In addition to the urban missions, tainability and viability of infrastructure investments. finance for urban climate-related investment has also been available from the Faster Adoption and The low levels of OSRs constrain all urban infra- Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (FAME) structure investment and services and would act scheme and from a Finance Commission scheme for as an impediment to raising the scale of urban water and sanitation and air quality improvement. financing required for climate action. Revisions in 103 Kelly, White, and Anand, 2020. 94 04 Financing Climate Resilient Urban Development In India property taxes, user fees, and service charges at ULB accounting statements could attribute only 2–3 per- level can improve the level of revenues collected and cent of spending to explicitly climate-related activ- this can in turn be used to leverage climate financing. ities.104 However, the review found that these cities were in fact making climate-related investments Cities are taking additional climate action, but above those officially tracked under climate pro- many climate-related investments are not system- grams. These investments included wind energy gen- atically tracked, impeding both monitoring and the eration (Ahmedabad), solar energy for office buildings attraction of financing. In a review of climate actions (Ahmedabad, Bhopal, Indore), budgetary allocation for in six cities in India, an examination of budgets and increasing green cover (Indore and Bhopal), energy BOX 4.2 Climate Readiness in India’s Cities The Cities Readiness Report (June 2021) prepared by C-Cube is an initiative of the GoI. The report tracks climate readiness among 126 of India’s principal cities. The main findings are: » 10 cities have more than 15 percent of their electricity needs generated through renewable energy. » 14 cities have more than 35 percent of their road network equipped with non-motorized transport infrastructure. » 19 cities have achieved National Air Quality Standards with two or more pollutants. » 21 cities have attained MoHUA’s Service Level Benchmarks (SLBs) for the availability of public transport. » 30 cities have initiated vulnerability assessments and GHG inventories to inform their CAPs. » 35 cities have initiated the development of city disaster management plans. » 35 cities have developed Clean Air Action Plans. » 38 cities have formulated strategies or allocated budget for conservation and rejuvenation of water bodies and open spaces. » 40 cities have instituted mechanisms for processing 100 percent of collected wet waste. » 41 cities conduct regular (annual) energy audits of their water supply system. » 44 cities have initiated flood/water stagnation risk assessments. » 45 cities are scientifically managing landfill sites meeting the Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organization (CPHEEO) guidelines as per Solid Waste Management Manual 2016. » 65 cities are meeting the prescribed Urban and Regional Development Plan Formulation and Implementation (URDPFI) Guidelines norm of more than 12 percent green cover within their municipal boundaries. » 67 cities have initiated water resource assessments. » 87 cities have some kind of air quality monitoring stations in their cities. » 88 cities have converted all streetlights to energy-efficient or renewable energy operation. » 101 cities have green buildings and are actively promoting the same. Source: City Readiness Report. (NIUA Climate Centre for Cities, 2021). Available at https://niua.in/csc/assets/pdf/key-documents/Cities- Readiness-Report.pdf. 104 This estimate includes expenditure on flood control and water stagnation by constructing retaining walls, construction of storm water  drainage systems, rejuvenation of lakes, stormwater harvesting through recharge wells, energy efficient streetlights, energy audits to reduce energy usage, installation of solar and wind energy plants, electric buses, increasing green cover, and air pollution control.  95 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA efficient streetlights (Ahmedabad, Surat, Vadodara, these expenditures. Guidance from the central and Indore), and e-buses for city transport (Pimpri- state governments could help with this tracking and, Chinchwad, Ahmedabad, Surat). Many Indian cities in turn, help attract financing for climate action. are making progress in climate actions (see Box 4.2). Cities should explore climate-specific global To accurately track spending and attract further sources of finance and technical assistance that financing for climate action, accurate budgeting are currently largely untapped. Cities can explore and monitoring will be vital. As seen from the review international and domestic public and private of budget and accounting statements of selected financing sources (see Box 4.3). Global sources cities discussed earlier, it is difficult to assess how of finance for climate action include various climate much Indian cities are currently spending on activi- funds. For certain climate activities, it may be pos- ties that meet climate goals due to a lack of classifi- sible for cities to tap into voluntary carbon markets. cation and tracking of these activities. Clearly, Indian They could thus receive carbon credits for emis- cities should improve and harmonize the tracking of sions reductions from governments and private sec- climate spending in a consistent manner, “tagging” tor organizations aiming to offset their emissions. BOX 4.3 Urban Local Government Finance Sources for Climate Actions Cities can get finance for climate action from various sources, the choice of which should International Public International Private be determined by project needs and local gov- » Global climate funds » Debt market (bonds) » Multilateral development » Commercial banks ernments’ capacity. These include private and International banks » Institutional investors public institutions that may be domestic or » Bilateral country financing » Private investors/companies international. International public sources of » Impact investors » NGOs and foundations finance for climate action include global cli- mate funds, multilateral development banks, and bilateral financing. They need sovereign guarantees from national governments to get access to funds. In contrast, domestic sources, Domestic Public Domestic Private » National development banks » Local commercial banks including national development banks and » National climate funds » Debt market (bonds), municipal revenue, offer more direct access » Government transfers if existing Domestic to funds through long-term concessional » Municipal own revenue » Local institutional investors and insurance loans and grants. They still, however, require » Private investors/companies that local governments have robust systems, » Local impact investors accountability frameworks, and creditwor- » Local foundations thiness to attract private investors. Domestic Public Private public sources of climate finance include national development banks and national and regional climate funds. Private sources of finance for climate action include debt markets for bonds, commercial banks for loans, private and impact investors for equity finance, and philanthropic foundations and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) for grant funding. Apart from grants, all forms of private finance are provided in exchange for financial returns. Sources may either be domestic or interna- tional, depending on the entity, and they require a higher return on their financing than providers of public financing. Private finance is, therefore, more expensive to take on than public finance. Source: Local Government Climate Finance Instrument (World Bank, 2024). https://www.preventionweb.net/publication/local-governments-climate-finance-instruments-global-experiences-and-prospects 96 04 Financing Climate Resilient Urban Development In India Organizations like C40, the Global Covenant of Mayors One approach might be to develop a new “urban resil- for Climate and Energy (GCOM) and the City Climate ience mission.” The roadmap can focus on identify- Finance Gap Fund specialize in helping cities identify ing different sources of financing and funding for and finance their climate investment needs through climate action that Indian cities can target such as technical assistance. “Tagging” of municipal expen- improving budgets, market-based financing, carbon ditures as climate-related, as discussed above, could market revenues, and private investments, as well as help cities attract these sources of finance and tech- Land Value Capture (LVC), tax incremental financing nical assistance. Central and state governments have (TIFs), redirection of fossil fuel subsidies, commer- an important role to play in connecting cities with cial revenue, and other innovative methods. It can these global institutions to facilitate their access to identify what is needed to build local capital markets these global resources. in achieving significant resilient urban infrastructure goals. The recommendations in this report could pro- Improving Public Sector Role in Urban Climate vide key inputs in developing such a national road- Action and Financing map and ultimately a “mission.” The roadmap can The national and state governments can help in help identify the roles at each level of government meeting significant investment needs. The first to support urban transition. Box 4.4 includes a list step is to develop a national roadmap, working with of actions to improve financing for climate action the states and key counterparts. The roadmap could at different levels of government. More importantly, not only identify dedicated programs for managing the roadmap needs to include the potential for flood and urban heat, but also actions to ensure a strengthening cashflow generation from underly- low-carbon pathway and to identify financing needs ing investments and services. Without this, private and prepare a financing strategy. investments (Public Private Partnerships—PPPs or non-PPPs) will be difficult to attract and sustain. BOX 4.4 National, State, and Urban Local Governments Can Take Steps to Improve Financing for Climate Action105 The national government may: » Provide the overarching policy and institutional framework, linking international and national commitments and related national policies down to state and ULB level. » Play an information and convening role, including information development and dissemination at all levels for example (e.g., convening potential financiers to share strategies, “building the case” through monitoring and reporting on progress against targets, case studies and success stories, etc.). » Facilitate and support climate action at state and ULB level, providing knowledge, templates, technical assis- tance, capacity building to support investment planning and financial planning, and helping strengthen absorp- tive and implementation capacity. » Support fiscal financing for climate action through increased climate-linked fiscal transfers (possibly perfor- mance-based) and helping strengthen ULBs’ fiduciary and financial management and OSR performance.106  105 This section is in part adapted from Athar, et al., 2022. 106 The 15th Finance Commission also recommended linking the devolution of fiscal transfers to OSR improvements, specifically property tax revenues through improved collection performance and rate revisions. 97 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA BOX 4.4 (cont.) Solar panels in New Delhi metro. © amlanmathur. » Help ULBs to access non-fiscal financing by: (i) increasing awareness of available climate funds; (ii) supporting devel- opment of private financial markets and instruments; (iii) supporting the design of commercial transactions and engagement with private financiers/investors; (iv) strengthening ULB institutional capacity to implement bankable climate projects and complex PPPs, including ensuring access to expertise in designing commercial transactions and engaging with private financiers/investors; and (v) credit enhancement support for ULBs such as guarantees. State governments may provide the framework for action at both state and ULB levels through: » Helping improve climate plan development and implementation, providing access for ULBs to quality data and technical and financial resources for developing prioritized climate resilience and low carbon action plans and multi-year capital investment and financing plans, including identifying finance sources and guidance for opera- tionalizing plans.   » Improving the state-level regulatory environment for private financing by: (i) ex ante procedures, transitioning to a rules-based financial transaction approval process (instead of a direct control system in which every individual transaction is approved on a case-by-case basis); and (ii) ex post procedures, reducing investors’ risk perception by clarifying and improving procedures to deal with municipal defaults and investor disputes. Urban local bodies (ULBs) can: » Prepare prioritized climate resilience and low-carbon multi-year capital investment and financing plans. » Build institutional capacity and develop and implement bankable climate projects and PPPs, possibly collaborating with other ULBs for project aggregation. » Acquire access to expertise in designing commercial transactions and engaging with private financiers and investors.   » Strengthen fiduciary and financial management, including budgeting, monitoring, and reporting. » Strengthen municipal financing for climate by: (i) accessing conditional and unconditional fiscal transfers; (ii) improving own revenue performance by expanding the local revenue base and increasing cost recovery for municipal services; (iii) building creditworthiness and improving communications with potential investors; and (iv) developing PPPs. 98 04 Financing Climate Resilient Urban Development In India 4.3 THE ROLE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN are considered. This is critical for showing and URBAN CLIMATE SOLUTIONS AND THEIR strengthening cashflow generation from underly- ing climate investments and services. Without this, FINANCING private investments (PPPs or non-PPPs) are difficult Private Finance of Urban Infrastructure to attract. In the five major cities assessed, energy Private sector financing is slowly but gradu- consumption and emissions from the housing sec- ally increasing with the deployment of innova- tor are anticipated to increase 2.4 times by 2050 tive business models and financing instruments and 4.1 times by 2070 if no mitigation interventions that provide risk mitigation. At present, private are introduced. Green housing investments such as sources finance only 5 percent of the infrastructure rooftop solar panels and building envelope interven- investment in Indian cities—3 percent as PPPs and tions can greatly reduce energy consumption and 2 percent as commercial debt.107 However, private emissions, but at a significant cost. However, sim- investment is gradually gaining traction, particularly ulation results show that the capital costs can be for solutions that have: (i) reduced upfront costs and recouped within a relatively short period. Similarly, assured revenue streams via innovative business an urban performance assessment for the same five models such as a lease or a fee-for-service model; (ii) cities shows that the Best Case scenario mitigation financing mechanisms to mitigate risk such as guar- and adaptation package would require additional antees, blended finance, subordinated debt, line of capital investment costs. Yet it would also yield sig- credit, etc. and (iii) proven demand aggregation with nificant cost savings, with a decrease in the costs of policies in place, such as extended producer respon- urban expansion, municipal services, and post-di- sibility (EPR).108 saster relocation. Interventions to address urban heat, such as urban greening, heat early warning Private sources of financing for climate action systems, and cool roof programs, are key entry for urban areas could be budgets, market-based points. They all have costs, but all also have high financing, carbon market revenues and private cost–benefit ratios. investments including: (i) debt finance through com- mercial banks and capital markets; (ii) equity finance Certain types of urban infrastructure and ser- through private developers or private equity firms; vices are more suitable for private sector invest- (iii) infrastructure funds; (iv) carbon markets; and (v) ment in Indian cities, while others are better green bonds and impact funds. Apart from financing suited to public investment or to PPP arrange- and funding, the private sector also has other critical ments. A 2023 survey of private sector companies roles in providing climate solutions—as a technology active in Indian cities109 (see Table 4.2) showed that provider of low-carbon solutions (e.g., e-mobility, the private sector plays a key role in financing and SWM), management efficiency provider in construc- implementing construction of commercial, indus- tion and operations of assets, better quality provider trial, and residential buildings, as well as in the of urban services, financier, and insurance provider. provision of solid waste management, water sup- It will be crucial to build local capital markets to meet ply and sanitation, and air quality monitoring. The India’s growing urban infrastructure needs. survey also showed that some investments have proved suitable for PPP arrangements. The major- Many climate actions are cost-effective when ity of urban infrastructure and services, however, the long-term lifecycle costs and benefits remains in the public domain. 107 "Financing India’s Infrastructure Needs: Constraints to commercial financing and prospects for policy action." World Bank, 2022. 108 EPR is an environmental policy approach in which a producer’s responsibility for a product is extended to the post-consumer stage of a product’s life cycle. One example is buying back material/waste from consumers. It is often applied to building appliances (such as HVAC, refrigerators, etc.) and can also be applied to climate technology hardware. 109 Based on a survey followed by a workshop in New Delhi in 2023.   99 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA TABLE 4.2 Typical Public, Private, and PPP Investments in Urban Areas Public Sector Investment Private Sector Investment PPP investment Land Use, » Risk mapping, land use and zoning, » Commercial, industrial, private » Town planning plans Green master plans housing development » Affordable housing plans Spaces » Parks and recreational areas Urban » Flood risk mapping, risk management » Remote sensing and drone » Development and management of Flooding assessment technologies for risk mapping multipurpose retention structures » Flood plain management, retention areas » Rainwater harvesting and and reservoirs for runoff water/ NbS recharge wells » Structural flood mitigation » Storm water retention in » Flood warning and response systems private properties Urban » Cool roofs and walls » Change in timing of offices and » Heat data mapping Heating » Tree plantation and vegetation, parks informal businesses » District cooling system and urban forests, green belts » Cool roofs and walls, green » Provision of AC/ HVAC » Cooling centers for temporary protection areas in private properties of urban dwellers from extreme heat » Early warning and response systems for extreme heat Green » Building regulations and control, » Energy monitoring and » Affordable housing Buildings approvals analytics for buildings » Urban gardens/vertical gardens » Inspection » Sustainable construction » Supply of urban land for housing materials for effective heating and cooling » Construction of houses Solid Waste » Source segregation and composting » Waste collection and » Material recovery facility Management » Sanitary-engineered landfills transportation » Waste to energy plants » Mechanical and biological waste treatment Water and » Storm water drainage » Anaerobic systems for existing » Smart water vending and Wastewater » Groundwater recharge and rejuvenation STPs and septic tanks distribution systems Management of water bodies » Treatment technology for reuse » Building of dams and catchment areas of wastewater » Sewerage networks and pipes for water and wastewater » SCADA systems » Desalination plants » Zero liquid discharge Air Quality » Air quality monitoring stations » Emission control devices for Management » Warning and response outdoor air quality » Internet of Things (IoT) based solutions for tracking and monitoring hyperlocal data Source: World Bank staff based on a survey of selected firms and workshop with them in 2023. 100 04 Financing Climate Resilient Urban Development In India Constraints to Private Financing of Urban operational challenges for private investors and Infrastructure operators. A survey and focused discussions undertaken in » Limited profitability and restricted revenue Indian cities during 2023110 found two critical areas streams for many services, e.g., micro-entrepre- of challenge holding back the scaling up of private neurs supporting waste management/recycling investment in urban solutions in India. The two companies and related problems of scalability of areas were: (i) policy and regulatory barriers; and (ii) recycling companies. low private sector engagement and lack of accessi- ble financial instruments. Unlocking Private Finance to Support Innovation and Improve Urban Infrastructure and Climate Policy and regulatory barriers stemmed from the lack Investment of a robust framework to catalyze finance and regu- Scaling up private sector finance for urban resil- late compliance. The main challenges identified were: ience requires a supportive enabling framework. This framework should comprise: (i) enabling policies » Limited public finance and fiscal autonomy of ULBs and regulations; and (ii) fostering an “engaged private » Unclear governance arrangements including over- sector.” lapping policies and regulations, the involvement of multiple agencies, and weak regulatory and Recommendations for an “enabling ecosystem” enforcement capacity aim at strengthening the policy and regulatory » Inefficient procurement driven by lack of clear environment and building a robust framework to standards, long tendering processes, and a need catalyze finance and regulate compliance. These for standardized municipal contracts. recommendations are: » Implementation challenges, with plans ill-adapted » Strengthen public finances by (i) delivering tech- to the local context and weak support from public nical and financial assistance to enable the tran- institutions. sition to accrual-based accounting for ULBs and improve the creditworthiness of cities and (ii) Low private sector engagement and lack of acces- developing and integrating frameworks for climate sible financial instruments. Specific challenges budget tagging in municipal budgets, enabling identified were: ULBs to raise municipal bonds for infrastructure investment.  » Limited understanding in the private sector of the potential for investing in urban resilience solutions » Strengthen procurement processes by providing and limited capacity to evaluate risks, leading to technical assistance to restructure the contracting perception of high risks. process of ULBs to attract companies and private financiers.  » Financial challenges, such as delayed cash flow leading to liquidity constraints and high work- » Improve capital investment planning, monitor- ing capital requirements in PPP projects111 and ing and evaluation, as well as implementation; strength capacity of city officials in these areas.   110 World Bank staff based on a survey of selected firms and workshop with them in 2023.  111 The nature of the problem depends on the PPP structure (design build operate, design build operate transfer, etc.). Typically in a PPP, the private party is required to finance part of the CAPEX and there are different payment mechanisms for the revenue stream. The private party may be paid by collecting service fees from the users and/or the government. If the timing of the public and private implementation differs, it impacts the cash flow of the project. For example, in water supply, the treatment facility may be developed by PPP, and the connection/pipes by government. If the household connections are not completed on time, there will be no collection of user fees, and hence there is no top line to cover the OPEX, resulting in a cash flow shortage and high working capital requirements. 101 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Recommendations to improve Public Private scaling of urban resilience solutions and catalyze Partnership (PPP) for scalable climate solutions in private sector investments; and (ii) designing and urban services: conducting training for financial institutions and technical officials at the national and sub-national » Water Supply: A deeper analysis of water sector level, aimed at driving more investment in the is needed including addressing high operational sector. cost of Sewage Treatment Plants (STPs), Water » Leverage greater private financing by developing Treatment Plans (WTPs) and supply systems guidelines on the use of equity instruments. through green energy solutions (such as solar power). Additionally innovative and phased strate- » Improve access to affordable financing by piloting gies for reducing high Non Revenue Water (NRW), and testing innovative business models that reduce i.e. water supply that is produced but is lost before upfront capital investment for operators and inves- it reaches customers, through modified hybrid tors with strong creditworthiness. annuity models112 can be considered. » Encourage private sector participation for exam- » Sanitation: Sewage sector can benefit from reuse ple by introducing water credit system113 and development of supportive infrastructure. » Improve capacity building of actual implementers Additional analysis needed to identify key chal- and contractors involved in project execution lenges and effective solutions. » A gradual shift towards external funding for PPP models can be considered by cities based on their Recommendations for “an engaged private sector” financing strategies. Additionally smaller scale ini- are designed to meet the challenges of low aware- tiatives may also be prioritized to improve private ness and limited access to flexible financial instru- sector confidence ments. The recommendations are: Detailed recommendations with proposed actions » Improve awareness by (i) creating a knowledge from the survey and workshop are provided in Annex 2. hub of climate risk data and solutions to enable 112 Hybrid Annuity Model: Government pays 40% of the capital cost of the project during the construction period and 60% of the payment is paid as annuities along with interest over the operation period. Initial payment of 40% is made in equal installments during construction phase, whereas the remaining 60% is paid as an annuity amount over the Operation and Maintenance period of 15 years. The developer will also receive O&M payments bi-annually along with annuity payments. This new model reduces the financial risks on the concessionaire during project implementation phase. More details accessible at: https://www.pas.org.in/Portal/document/UrbanSanitation/uploads/Hybrid%20Annuity%20Model%20for%20Sanitation%20 April%2023%202018.pdf 113 India's water credit system is a market-based mechanism that rewards water conservation and quality improvement. It works similar to carbon credit system where individuals and organizations can earn water credits by adopting water-saving practices. These credits can be sold to others who need to offset their water usage. The system encourages investment in water-saving technologies and infrastructure. Available at: https://water.org/ documents/291/Water.org_in_India_learning_brief_on_systems_change.pdf 102 O5 ACHIEVING CLIMATE RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA Twilight in Ayodhaya, India. © Simran Singh. 103 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA This chapter presents an action plan for Indian cit- actions can avert billions of annual damages in flood- ies and key stakeholders to achieve climate-resil- ing and urban heat-related impacts. The simulations ient and low-carbon urban development. It builds conducted for this report also show that the most on the findings of earlier chapters that identified the ambitious urban policies and related investment needs in Indian cities to: (i) adapt to the rising impacts would allow Indian cities to reduce their emissions of urban flooding and extreme heat together with the by an average of 80 percent by 2050 and, through related remedial actions; (ii) incorporate low-carbon compact urban development, preserve a total of 337 development in urban planning and management; square kilometers of land from urban development and (iii) mobilize the public and private sectors to in five cities studied. A reduction of up to 70 percent scale up urban climate solutions and financing. of GHG emissions can be achieved in the SWM sector alone by 2050. This chapter first sets out the background, highlight- ing the need to strengthen urban resilience actions in A dedicated program is needed to support resilient India. Then in sets out key recommendations for city urban development in India. Key priorities include interventions in Section 5.2; national and state level investing in a 10-point action plan for cities, devel- interventions in Section 5.3; for develop a national oping a national and state urban resilience program financing strategy in Section 5.4; and improving to address flooding and extreme heat, and devis- stakeholder collaboration in Section 5.5. The Section ing a financing and implementation strategy. The 5.6 outlines critical next steps. investment program need to improve institutional capacity and incentives for improving collaboration and cooperation of key stakeholders. Implementing 5.1 STRENGTHENING URBAN RESILIENCE IN this program would not only ensure that cities adapt INDIA to climate effects and reduce carbon emissions but Indian cities need to seize the opportunity to also deliver sustainable high economic returns and leverage the urbanization process to improve cli- improved well-being for citizens. mate resilience and achieve low-carbon, inclusive growth. With the rapid development of cities and urban infrastructure in the coming years, there is 5.2 INVEST IN A 10-POINT CITY CLIMATE an opportunity to maximize development gains by ACTION PLAN ensuring that all decisions and investments reflect climate risks and lead to resilient urban development. Cities are on the front line of climate impacts and This chapter identifies key actions that could ensure can play a key role in GHG mitigation. This report that cities adapt to climate effects and reduce car- recommends 10 key actions that each Indian city bon emissions while delivering sustainable high eco- can take to plan for and invest in climate solutions nomic returns and improved well-being for citizens. (see Box 5.1). The scope of these actions can be adjusted based on the local context, population and Investing in urban resilience and low-carbon growth size, climate and disaster risk profile, development will not only help with inclusive development but also trajectory, and urban local government capacity. See better quality of urban life and cleaner air. Timely details in Annex 3. 104 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India 1 BOX 5.1 Conduct and continue updating A 10-point City Climate Action Plan local climate and disaster risk assessment. Cities need to assess risk and plan for climate actions. All climate action needs to be grounded in an evi- 1 Conduct and continue updating local climate and disaster risk assessment dence-based assessment of risks and likely cli- mate impacts. Climate adaptation, mitigation, and risk management measures need to be based on Each city needs to invest in disaster resilience and up-to-date risk assessments, dynamic risk profiles, climate adaptation, prioritizing the urban poor, and and GHG assessments. Based on these assessments involving the private sector. and risk profiles, cities can prepare strategies for urban resilience, city-level adaptation, and low-car- 2 Develop impact-based, multi-hazard, and inclusive warning and response bon development. Many Indian cities are already systems improving risk information and factoring risk assess- ments into strategies for resilient urban develop- 3 Ensure climate-sensitive new urban development ment. Box 5.2 illustrates the example of Chennai. Urban development strategies need to mainstream integrated approaches to strengthening resilience 4 Invest in risk reduction measures, for floods and heat with a particular focus on the poor and vulnerable and to prioritize low-carbon development. Within these strategies and plans, risk information should be used to identify robust and integrated adapta- 5 Prioritize the most vulnerable including the urban poor tion and mitigation measures covering both green and grey infrastructure using integrated rather than standalone approaches. The risk assessment and the 6 Facilitate the private sector’s role in planning process need to be coordinated with sectoral risk transfer and resilience and master planning measures to ensure coordinated and efficient urban development. (See the example of Each city needs to invest in climate-smart climate resilient Chennai in Box 5.2 and that of Buenos Aires, Argentina and green development. in Box 5.3.) In both cases, strategies for adapta- tion and mitigation actions are based on continu- 7 Plan and invest in compact and green city expansion and densification ous assessments of climate risk and GHG emissions. 8 Plan and invest in efficient, resilient, and green municipal services 9 Invest in resilient and green public transport 10 Encourage resilient and green buildings and housing 105 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA BOX 5.2 Chennai’s Climate Action Plan—Based on a Thorough Risk Assessment and Targets Both Adaptation and Low-carbon Growth The Tamil Nadu government launched FIGURE 5.1 Chennai’s first CAP114 in June 2023, mak- Chennai Flood Hazard and Vulnerability Map ing Chennai only the second Indian city to have a Paris Agreement-aligned CAP. The CAP was based on a thorough risk assessment which identified the key cli- mate risks as floods, rising sea levels, and heat. The CAP mapped out which parts of the city are most susceptible to each particular risk and set out a strategy for the necessary adaptation and pre- vention measures. Figure 5.1, the flood hazard and vulnerability map, shows an example of this mapping. The CAP also pinpointed vulnerable communities and areas, acknowledging that the effects of climate change will particularly affect poorer areas of Chennai. The climate action planning process also led to the development of a GHG emis- sions inventory and the identification of strategies and actions for low-carbon growth and mitigation. The CAP provides for continuous data gathering on emis- sions and traces out a roadmap for the city to become carbon-neutral by 2050. The CAP sets targets of 1 percent reduc- tion by 2030 compared to 2018-19, 40 percent reduction by 2040, and achieving net zero by 2050. The Chennai Metropolitan Development Source: Chennai Climate Change Action Plan 2023.* Authority (CMDA) is responsible for urban * Other resources and examples for climate risk assessment include: Assessing planning, which is a cross-cutting disci- Climate Risks. C40 Knowledge. Available at: https://www.c40knowledgehub.org/s/ pline affecting land use decisions, green topic/0TO1Q000000UBHHWA4/assessing-climate-risks?language=en_US; and a report submitted by ICF GHK in association with King’s College London and Grupo spaces, transport, housing, and more. Laera: Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Latin American and Caribbean Cities. The CMDA is thus the main institution Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/LAC/ Climate%20Change%20Adaptation%20Planning%20for%20Castries_FINAL.pdf for delivering increased resilience and emissions reductions. The CMDA aims to embed key actions from the Chennai CAP in the Third Chennai Development Master Plan (2027-2046) and to do this in alignment with the national and state governments’ ambitions on climate action and the UN Sustainable Development Goals. 114 Chennai Climate Change Action Plan. Government of Tamil Nadu, 2022. Available at: https://data.opencity.in/dataset/chennai-climate-action- plan/resource/climate-action-plan-chennai---2022 106 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India BOX 5.3 City Aires Buenos City Climate Action Plan Context 1 Buenos Aires, Argentina 2020 CAP Population Location GHG Emissions Inventory (scopes 1,2,3) large-size 3.97 ton CO₂ eq / person 3.0 M people Urban 484 kg CO₂ eq / MUSD Area: 202 km² 0.60% Vulnerable Groups yearly growth rate Density: Elderly Children 14,851 people/km² People living in barrios 2015-2020 Economy Geography GDP $24 B USD Service Sector 83% GDP/capita Commercial Grassland Coastal Climate Risks and Vulnerabilities Manufacture $8,196 Geographic scope Weather Av Max 22°C Humid 18°C Climate Action Plan Evaluation Av Mid Buenos Aires, Argentina Av Min 14°C 1 1.52% of Metropolitan Area Temperate 1,100 mm rain per year 2020 CAP Priority Actions Climate Action Plan Analysis in Latin American and Caribbean Countries | ARGENTINA Mitigation (current emissions vs reductions by sector) 6 Current Emissions distribution Part of the residual emissions will be offset through forestry projects within and outside City limits. The main mitigation actions for the stationary energy sector are the construction of more efficient new buildings as well as the installation of FV Current systems in 30% of residential roofs by emissions 2050. Some mitigation actions for the transport sector include: increasing efficiency in urban logistics by focusing on delivery services. and substituting the public transport flee with biodiesel or electric vehicles. The ambitious scenario does not specify The main mitigation action for the waste what percentage of emission reductions sector is to reduce waste through the corresponds to each sector promotion of circular economy principles. Adaptation Actions Increase tree cover by planting Expand the hydraulic system in 100,000 new trees by 2025. the city's main water basins. Quality of Increase green spaces and create a Action Design 400-meter average maximal proximity to green spaces by 2025. Increase natural surplus water retention area using nature-based Integrate low-income neighborhoods solutions including the opening of and provide better public services to some piped stream sections. low-income communities creating climate resilience. Climate Action Plan Analysis in Latin American and Caribbean Countries | ARGENTINA 7 Source: City Climate Action Plan Analysis in Latin America and the Caribbean. World Bank PowerPoint presentation available at: https://www. citygapfund.org/sites/default/files/2022-05/220419-caps-analysis-report.pdf. 107 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA 1. Local climate and disaster risk assessment and planning Recommended Actions Relevant Agencies Priority » Undertake a quick mapping of available information and data on key ULB, UDD, SDMA Immediate Priority hazards and climate impacts » Undertake detailed climate and disaster risk assessments for planning, ULB, UDD, SDMA, Relevant Short term make it available to citizens and private sector sectors » Develop local hazard specific investment plan such as for urban flood ULB with UDD, SDMA, Short term resilience and heat action plan Relevant sectors » Update risk assessments regularly ULB Medium to long term » Integrate climate and disaster risk information in master or land use ULB with UDD, SDMA, Medium to long term plan to steer urban expansion to safer areas. Relevant sectors » Embed risk reduction into urban expansion projects and promote storm water management, nature-based solutions » Strengthen Risk based regulations, building standards and codes need to be implemented Note: Relevant ministries identified are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Priority: Immediate Priority: Next 1 year; Short term: 1 to 5 years; Medium to Long term: 5 to 10 years. Key acronyms: IMD: India Meteorological Department; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoRTH: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; and ULB: Urban Local Body. nets for poor and low-income households. Cities can 2 Develop impact-based, multi- hazard and inclusive warning and build on the existing systems, including on recent response systems improvements in national flood forecasting and warning, to develop inclusive and impact-based warning and response systems. India has invested With the recent experience of climate impacts and and benefited from improved disaster warning and the sharply rising disaster damages and losses, it response systems at national and regional levels; for is essential to strengthen urban early warning and example, the Orissa cyclone response system has response systems. The focus needs to be on improv- saved many lives. However, more is needed to ing impact-based and inclusive multi-hazard warning strengthen urban warning and response services. and emergency response systems, strengthening Box 5.4 illustrates the recently developed flood fore- last-mile connectivity and community preparedness, casting and early warning system in Kolkata, which developing recovery systems, and ensuring safety can be a model for other Indian cities. 108 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India BOX 5.4 Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System in Kolkata, India In order to mitigate floods, Kolkata Municipal Corporation (KMC) worked to establish a city level Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FFEWS). The FFEWS is designed to collect and show real-time information on temperature, air quality, and water stagnation and other climate-related data using 400 sensor nodes. These ultrasonic sen- sors were installed across vulnerable hotspots and near critical junctions, including but not limited to canals, water pumping stations, traffic junctions, and schools. Communities were also involved in the process. Residents agreed to install shopfront sensors in commercial areas. The sensors capture real-time information on various environmental parameters and upload the data onto a centralized cloud server for processing. The data collected can be visualized on a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) platform. When warnings are triggered, they are made available to the public, especially in risk-prone areas and for vulnerable community groups, through mobile notifications and radio and television broadcasts. FFEWS also has the potential to develop various flood scenarios with the collected data to inform future flood risk. The comprehensive FFEWS is an effective intervention to monitor and disseminate flood risk data. Through crowdsourc- ing, this data can be made accessible to large groups of people through smartphones and other digital interfaces. Sources: Catalogue of Best Practices for Building Flood Resilience. GFDRR (January, 2022). Available at: https://www.gfdrr.org/en/publication/cata- logue-best-practices-building-flood-resilience; and “Kolkata Gets India’s First Comprehensive City-Level Flood Forecasting and Warning System.” ADB (September 2018). Available at: https://www.adb.org/news/kolkata-gets-indias-first-comprehensive-city-level-flood-forecasting-and-warning-system 2. Urban warning and response systems Recommended Actions Relevant Agencies Priority » Improve preparedness for climate shocks by identifying high risk ULB with district administration, Immediate communities, and improving their awareness and support for taking NDMA, SDMA, IMD Priority timely actions » Improve impact-based and inclusive multi-hazard warning ULB (with GoI and state agencies Short term » Improve emergency health and emergency response, post-disaster recovery responsible for disaster response and reconstruction capacity, access to emergency or contingent financing and recovery – NDMA, SDMAs, » improve preparedness of private sector including access to insurance district governments) Note: Relevant ministries identified are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Priority: Immediate Priority: Next 1 year; Short term: 1 to 5 years; Medium to Long term: 5 to 10 years. Key acronyms: IMD: India Meteorological Department; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoRTH: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; and ULB: Urban Local Body. 109 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA the catchment or basin. At the housing level, cities 3 Ensure climate-sensitive new urban development must develop an integrated and evidence-based policy and regulatory framework for improving climate adap- tation in the housing sector and to mainstream adap- tation planning and resilient investment planning at With the urban population set to double by 2070, it is the habitat level. At the same time, climate-sensitive essential that new urban development integrate cli- mate risk and low-carbon development potential urban development needs to take account of the grow- from the outset. Cities need to ensure that the supply ing hazards to urban road networks, where even lim- of new urban land is based on local climate and disas- ited network exposure to flooding can result in drastic ter risk profiles, and to take measures to ensure urban mobility disruptions. It is essential to strengthen risk-sensitive development with access to resilient inter-agency coordination and risk-based planning, services, infrastructure, and buildings. Flood risk considering hazards when planning new infrastructure reduction in new build areas requires good zoning for investments, and accounting for both the criticality flood areas and other hazards and must include provi- and the exposure of the asset. Box 5.5 illustrates the sions to reduce exposure to flood hazard and to broad-based strategy for handling climate risk and improve storm water management. It must also pro- transitioning to a low-carbon pathway through the vide risk identification for surrounding areas within urban planning process in Yokohama, Japan. BOX 5.5 Integrating Climate Risk and Transitioning to a Low Carbon Pathway through Innovative Urban Planning in Yokohama, Japan The combination of Yokohama’s topography (consisting of hills, plateaus and lowlands surrounded by rivers and coasts) and urbanization patterns (where hills, forests, and agricultural land have been developed into residen- tial and commercial land) has exacerbated Yokohama’s exposure to flood risk. Learning the lessons of 2004, when Yokohama Station suffered severe damage from torrential rain from Typhoon Ma-on, the city implemented adap- tation measures. These included storm sewer trunk lines to allow the Station and its surrounding areas to sustain severe flooding that would be caused by up to 74 mm/hour rainfall (approximately the rainfall of a 30-year return period). In 2017, the area was designated as the first “urban flood hazard zone” in the country. Regarding mitigation efforts, Yokohama aims to achieve large-scale CO2 reduction and to reach carbon neutrality by 2050 through the combi- nation of municipal efforts, actions by busi- nesses and research organizations in the city, and citizen action. Ongoing efforts include: (i) promotion and implementation of zero emis- sion buildings/housing (ZEB/ZEH); (ii) transport modal shifts to public transport; (iii) adoption of electrical vehicles/fuel cell vehicles (EVs/ FCVs); and (iv) selection of low-carbon electric- ity and area energy management through artifi- cial intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT) and pilot testing of Environmental Model Zones, which balance highly convenient urban func- Electric charging stands in Yokohama, Japan. © aozora1 tions with carbon reduction. Source: Yokohama City Action Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures. (City of Yokohama, October 2018). Available at: https://yokohama-city. de/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Action-Plan-for-Global-Warming2020.pdf 110 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India 3. Climate sensitive urban development Recommended Actions Relevant Agencies Priority Supply of new urban land » Regulate the supply of new urban land based on local climate and ULB with UDD, MoHUA Short term disaster risk profiles » Map municipal assets exposed to climate risk and take actions to ULB, UDD Short term improve their resilience » Zone urban land based on flooding and other hazards. ULB, UDD Medium to long term » Ensure that new developments include provision to reduce exposure ULB, UDD Medium to long term to flood hazard and improve storm water management. » Adopt risk-sensitive analysis in master plans and provide building ULB, UDD Medium to long term approval based on risk assessment and zoning Urban buildings and housing adaptation » Promote latest housing technologies and green design innovations States, UDD and ULBs, with Short term through capacity building and training. MoHUA support » Update existing building codes and standards to address climate vulnerabilities identified by climate change projections » Improve compliance with building bylaws, including mandatory plan compliance checks and post-construction quality checks. Urban road network adaptation » Improve the maintenance of infrastructure assets particularly the high- ULB Immediate Priority risk roads, drains, culverts » Increase system redundancy by assessing road network and increasing ULB, UDD with MoHUA and Short term road density MoRTH » Protect infrastructure assets through a combination of green (nature- ULB, UDD with MoHUA Short term based solutions) and grey infrastructure » Strengthen inter-agency coordination and risk-based planning ULB, state and relevant sectors Medium to long term Note: Relevant ministries identified are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Priority: Immediate Priority: Next 1 year; Short term: 1 to 5 years; Medium to Long term: 5 to 10 years. Key acronyms: IMD: India Meteorological Department; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoRTH: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; and ULB: Urban Local Body. A range of solutions would typically be required, with 4 Invest in risk reduction measures, for floods and heat a shift from hard engineering to hybrid solutions spanning both grey and green infrastructure. Responses to the growing hazard of floods need Climate change and urbanization patterns are to be risk-based. Given the huge needs, national increasing disaster risk in Indian cities, and the and state governments can primarily focus on “hot complexity of the causal factors requires a focus spots”—areas where large climate impacts and future on integrated rather than standalone approaches. urbanization are expected. Cities can give priority 111 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA to new areas for development. What is required are A range of investments can help adaptation to the flood management policies and action plans based on growing problem of extreme heat in cities. Climate risk profiles that assess flood risk not only at city level projections indicate a substantial increase in episodes but at the basin or watershed level (or at the level of of extreme urban heat stress that will lead to rising coastal zones) and that avoid development patterns heat-related deaths and economic losses without any that increase flood risks. Integrated urban flood man- remedial action. The introduction of HAPs in cities agement projects with NbS can be a very effective such as Ahmedabad has saved lives and reduced loss response. See the example from Beira, Mozambique, of economic output. See Box 5.9. Also see Chapter in Box 5.6). Indian cities also face water scarcity 2, Section 2.3115 The stronger implementation of heat challenges and need comprehensive solutions that mitigation actions would yield major benefits. improve urban watershed management, and water storage capacity. See the example from Cape Town in Box 5.7, and Shizouka city, Japan, in Box 5.8). BOX 5.6 Urban Flood Resilience in Beira, Mozambique In Beira, Mozambique, the Cities and Climate Change Project financed conventional grey interventions, such as upgrades and extensions of inadequate drainage systems, together with NbS, which focused on restoring the capacity of the Chiveve River to mitigate floods in Beira. At the heart of the NbS approach was a park designed to reduce flooding for over 50,000 inhabitants while hosting recreation areas, a botanical garden, playgrounds, and public facilities. Overall, the project provided flood protection benefits for 234,000 people. Soon after completion of the project, the city was hit by Cyclone Idai, one of the strongest cyclones ever to hit the African continent. The project’s investments proved resilient, demonstrating the effectiveness of combining green and grey infrastructure. Note: Parts of Beira, Mozambique before and after the Cities and Climate Change Project. Source: Building Resilience Through Green-Grey Infrastructure: Lessons from Beira. World Bank, January 2022. Available at: https://www.world- bank.org/en/news/feature/2022/01/31/building-resilience-through-green-gray-infrastructure-lessons-from-beira 115 https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/ahmedabad-heat-action-plan-2018.pdf 112 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India 4a. Urban flood and water resilience Recommended Actions Relevant Agencies » Undertake detailed flood risk assessment and identify priority actions ULBs with states, NDMA and Immediate Priority for the needed flood protection level SDMA » Improve preparedness for communities living in flood prone areas, ULBs with NDMA, SDMA Immediate Priority through awareness campaign, warning, and evaluation drills » Improve or develop new regulation to control the flood flow increase ULBs, states, UDD, MoHUA Short term due to expansion of new urban areas » Improve zoning of areas exposed to flooding based on flood risk maps Prepare and finance stormwater plans for the city in major drainage » Create or strengthen local stormwater institution to develop, operate, and maintain the stormwater infrastructure, with a revenue stream to cover the maintenance costs. » Manage existing urban flood impacts and support sustainable ULBs, UDD, states, MoHUA, Medium to long term solutions for urban expansion that minimize future impacts: better other sectoral ministries management of urban wetlands, green spaces to absorb excess flood water, cleaning of local streams, and upstream detention » Improve water and wastewater management, water storage capacity ULBs, UDD, MoHUA, relevant Medium to long term improvements, as applicable sectoral ministries Note: Relevant ministries identified are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Priority: Immediate Priority: Next 1 year; Short term: 1 to 5 years; Medium to Long term: 5 to 10 years. Key acronyms: IMD: India Meteorological Department; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoRTH: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; and ULB: Urban Local Body. 4b. Urban extreme heat stress resilience Recommended Actions Relevant Agencies Priority » Undertake extreme heat mapping and identify communities at a high risk, ULB, states, relevant Immediate Priority improve their preparedness to heat wave including their awareness and access sectors to cooling centers and health clinics » Develop or strengthen Heatwave early warning, response and recovery system Immediate Priority » Regularly update extreme heat mapping ULB Short term » Prepare and implement Heat Action Plans, including following priority actions: ULBs, states and Short term Work with high-risk businesses to take actions such as shifting working hours for MoHUA laborers, incentives for resilient and energy efficient housing as well as cool roofs program prioritizing schools, hospitals, and other critical public buildings; urban greenery; and support high risk population including those in informal settlements, urban poor and recent migrants/laborers Note: Relevant ministries identified are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Priority: Immediate Priority: Next 1 year; Short term: 1 to 5 years; Medium to Long term: 5 to 10 years. Key acronyms: IMD: India Meteorological Department; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoRTH: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; and ULB: Urban Local Body. 113 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA BOX 5.7 Managing Water Scarcity through Improved Storage in City of Cape Town, South Africa Cape Town, South Africa. © EyeEm Mobile GmbH. Cape Town experienced a 1-in-a-500-year drought from 2015 to 2018, which laid bare the city’s limited capacity to access alternative sources of water. The city adopted coping strategies to deal with the short-term water scarcity issue, using demand management measures to reduce water demand and reallocating water in storage. The city then developed a new water strategy for the longer term. This will add other sources of storage and water to its portfolio to relieve overdependence on current systems. The strategy includes both built infrastructure in the form of desalination plants and wastewater reuse facilities as well as green storage through the increased use of groundwater and groundwater storage. These measures will be combined with investments to increase the resil- ience of the regional water storage system to create an integrated, multiple-water-source approach to mitigate future drought impacts. Source: What Has the Future in Store? A New Paradigm for Water Storage. (World Bank, 2023). Available at: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099454002022397507/pdf/IDU031e759b40be950485909796045bca5d8e378.pdf 114 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India BOX 5.8 Improved Flood Resilience through Flood Water Storage in Shizouka City, Japan Flood resilience measures in Japanese cities focus on promoting integrated and multi-layered measures for 1) flood prevention, 2) exposure reduction, and 3) disaster resilience. Shizouka city was able to reduce its flood inundation area following this strategy, as well as by primarily supporting the development of public and private flood storage areas. A total of 690,000 m3 of storage has been developed (see figure below on flood risk management, and flood storage areas that reduce flood inundation in Shizouka city). Key Components of Flood Risk Management Strategy 1) Flood Prevention 2) Exposure Reduction 3) Disaster Resilience Basins Floodplains Floodplains ➢ Guide residents to lower ➢ Improve rainwater risk areas. ➢ Localize ➢ Improve land risk storage functions inundation information ➢ Promote safer ways of areas living ➢ Reinforce evacuation River Areas systems ➢ Store flowing water ➢ Minimize economic through construction/ damages upgrades/effective use ➢ Promote safer ways of dams, etc. of living ➢ Ensure and improve the ➢ Improve support discharge capacity of systems for affected river channels local governments ➢ Reduce overflow ➢ Eliminate inundation promptly Flood Storage Areas Reduce Flood Inundation in Shizouka City Estimated inundated area The diversion channel 2022 Flood 2014 Flood 1974 Flood River management facilities Retarding basins and a diversion channel 0 500 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Source: Water and Disaster Management Bureau, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), Japan. 115 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA BOX 5.9 Ahmedabad Heat Action Plan Close to 1200 deaths have been avoided after adopting HAP in Ahmedabad. It is also being replicated in other cities of India with the leadership of National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA). The HAP has four key area of focus: (i) effective early warning and inter-agency response plan; (ii) public awareness and outreach; (iii) building capacity of medical professionals; and (iv) reducing heat exposure and promoting adaptative measures. Source: “Extreme Heat in Cities: From assessment to action” Session at Understanding Risk Global Forum 2024. need to prioritize poorer communities and neigh- 5 Prioritize the most vulnerable including the urban poor borhoods. Most important are early warning and response systems, as well as adaptive social protec- tion systems that can identify and target the most vulnerable groups in advance and safety nets for It is essential to prioritize support to the poorest and most vulnerable citizens, including through those affected during and after a climatic shock targeting and safety nets. Poor neighborhoods and (see Box 5.10 for an example of inclusive warning households suffer the greatest impact of disasters and evacuation system in New Orleans, USA). Risk because they have limited adaptive capacity and reduction measures include infrastructure upgrad- thus experience much higher losses in terms of ing and home improvements. Strong community well-being. Therefore, urban adaptation measures participation is essential. 116 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India 5. Prioritize the most vulnerable citizens Recommended Actions Relevant Agencies Priority » Identify high-risk residents based on climate and disaster risk mapping ULB to work with State Immediate Priority and prioritize them for early warning and response measures MoHUA » Develop or strengthen local programs that support informal ULB with State, MoHUA, Short-term settlements, urban poor and recent migrants/laborers in the cities before, Ministry of Social Justice during and after climate and disaster shocks and Empowerment » Adopt risk reduction measures best adapted to informal settlements ULB with State and MoHUA Medium to long term » Reserve relocation to new sites as a last resort in the highest-risk ULB with State and MoHUA Medium to long term zones and apply careful due diligence Note: Relevant ministries identified are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Priority: Immediate Priority: Next 1 year; Short term: 1 to 5 years; Medium to Long term: 5 to 10 years. Key acronyms: IMD: India Meteorological Department; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoRTH: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; and ULB: Urban Local Body. BOX 5.10 An Inclusive Warning and Evacuation System in New Orleans, USA The city of New Orleans identifies its most vulnerable citizens, including the elderly and disabled, who are at risk of flooding in the city. The city works with these vulnerable people to prepare them for future flooding events through drills and annual reminders. The city also identifies priority road networks and collection points to evacuate high- risk citizens as a part of an inclusive flood warning and response system. Source: New Orleans Plan for Emergencies: Seniors & People with Medical Needs. (City of New Orleans). Available at: https://ready.nola. gov/access/?utm_campaign=City_of_New_Orleans&utm_content=&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery&utm_term=; and Hazard Mitigation Plan: and The City Of New Orleans, n.d. Available at: https://ready.nola.gov/hazard-mitigation/hazards/flooding/ 117 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA private sector interest, limited cash flow potential, 6 Facilitate the private sector’s role in risk transfer and resilience and lack of accessible financial instruments. The gov- ernment can support the development of private sec- tor engagement and financing by creating an “enabling ecosystem” to strengthen the policy and regulatory Government needs to create an “enabling ecosys- environment and build a robust framework to catalyze tem” to facilitate much greater private sector finance and regulate compliance. City governments engagement and investment. Private sector engage- can also benefit from private sector investment in ment in the financing and investment of urban infra- valuable city land by transforming a flood-prone area structure is limited and there are significant into a high-value commercial and residential area (see constraints of policy and regulatory barriers, low Box 5.11 for an example from Dar es Salaam, Tanzania). BOX 5.11 Maximizing Value from a Flood-Prone Area: The Msimbazi Basin Development Project in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania Aerial view of the mangrove swamps, city of Dar es Salaam. ©Moiz Husein Storyteller. The project seeks to demonstrate how value can be created by transforming a flood-prone area near the city center into a lively green space and commercial and residential area. The project involves a process in which the govern- ment, with the support of World Bank financing, invests in flood mitigation and stabilizes 400 hectares of regularly flooded prime land in the Lower Msimbazi River Basin, where flooding is expected to worsen in the future because of climate change. The intervention will create more than 300 hectares of a wetland park serving the dual purpose of recreational amenity for the city and stormwater attenuation and filtration facility, with more than 60 hectares of flood-protected terraces—attractive for a range of commercial and residential uses—available for vertical development. Once the land is stabilized, the government will take charge of planning the urban development in Lower Msimbazi, granting development rights to private investors who are interested in developing the 60-hectare land portfolio on the flood-protected terraces. This process is expected to unlock significant value in the Lower Msimbazi that can be captured through the sale of land and development rights and thus allow for recovery of the initial public investments in flood mitigation. Source: Transforming Tanzania’s Msimbazi River from a Liability into an Opportunity. (World Bank, August 2019). Available at: https://www.world- bank.org/en/news/feature/2019/08/12/transforming-tanzanias-msimbazi-river-from-a-liability-into-an-opportunity 118 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India 6. Private sector participation in urban resilience Recommended Actions Relevant Agencies Priority » Improve private sector’s awareness to climate and disaster ULB, State, SDMA, relevant Immediate Priority risks: provide climate and disaster risk information, best practices sectors and guidance » Engage with private sector to identify and support innovative MoHUA, State and ULBs Short term climate resilience solutions » Undertake a deeper analysis of needs and identify innovative ULB with MoHUA and State Medium to long term solutions to improve PPP in resilient and energy efficient municipal services and infrastructure Note: Relevant ministries identified are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Priority: Immediate Priority: Next 1 year; Short term: 1 to 5 years; Medium to Long term: 5 to 10 years. Key acronyms: IMD: India Meteorological Department; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoRTH: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; and ULB: Urban Local Body. paradigm. This paradigm provides for a combination 7 Plan and invest in compact and green c ity expansion and of a “compact city” that saves land and reduces costs densification of infrastructure and service provision, incorporates low-carbon construction standards, builds in renew- Cities need to plan for and invest in compact and able energy solutions, and optimizes the use of public green city expansion and densification. As urban transport, cycling, and walking through TOD. All these population growth drives urban expansion, there features contribute to mitigation and adaptation is an opportunity to improve efficiencies in Indian goals. Box 5.12 describes the example of the “green cities through a new spatial planning and design and compact city of Singapore.” 7. Compact and efficient city planning Recommended Actions Relevant Agencies Priority » Optimize land use and forbid construction in risk-prone areas ULBs, states, UDD, MoHUA Short term » Enable compact city through transit-oriented development, provide incentives for ULBs, states, UDD, MoHUA Medium to long vertical development in safe areas term » Improve provision of urban amenities: new health care, education and public amenities to maximise safety and accessibility » Promote LED and other energy efficiency technology for street lighting Note: Relevant ministries identified are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Priority: Immediate Priority: Next 1 year; Short term: 1 to 5 years; Medium to Long term: 5 to 10 years. Key acronyms: IMD: India Meteorological Department; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoRTH: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; and ULB: Urban Local Body. 119 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA emissions at around current levels. But there is high 8 Plan and invest in efficient, resilient, and green municipal potential for emissions reduction that could signifi- services cantly contribute to India’s GHG mitigation targets. What is needed for waste management is to use Successfully pursuing low-carbon development a wide range of technologies to minimize carbon pathways will require investing in the provision of green and resilient municipal services. Reducing dioxide and methane emissions along the value service sector emissions requires local mitigation chain. Significant investments will be needed to sus- roadmaps with clear priorities, milestones, and time- tain current levels of waste management, acquire frames to facilitate fundamental changes. One key ser- separation and disposal infrastructure, and advance vice for low-carbon development is waste management low-carbon alternatives. Landfilling, with adequate where continuing on the current trajectory would keep methane recovery features, is the most financially BOX 5.12 The Green and Compact City of Singapore Aerial view of Singapore. © Paola Giannoni. Singapore is an example of a city that has adopted a compact and biodiversity-friendly approach to urban planning. Despite its population density, which increased from 3,538 residents per km2 in 1970 to 7,810 residents per km2 in 2020, the city managed to expand green areas from 36 percent to 47 percent of its total land area. In fact, since the early 1960s, Singapore has had a strong ambition to green itself in order to become a highly livable and competitive city. For example, high-rise greenery has increasingly become an essential component of the city’s development plan, due in part to the limited amount of land available. The government now requires property developers to replace any greenery lost during construction and covers 50 percent of the costs of installing green roofs and walls on existing buildings. As a result, the city’s 72 hectares of rooftop gardens and green walls are set to triple by 2030. These amenities, combined with 4,172 hectares of green space (parks and park connectors), reduce the city’s heat-island effect, help absorb stormwater, provide space for recreation, and increase urban biodiversity. Source: “A Biodiverse Compact City–Singapore.“ (Ellen MacArthur Foundation). Available at: https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/circular-examples/a-biodiverse-compact-city-singapore#:~:text=By%20promoting%20a%20 compact%20urban,and%2012%2C000%E2%80%9317%2C000%20marine%20organisms. 120 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India viable solution. It will be essential to establish a sys- and enhancing revenue sources and with predictable tem with environmental controls that can absorb and prioritized fiscal transfers to service delivery increasing volumes over time. Waste generation also agencies, including SWM agencies. Involvement of needs to be minimized through behavior change, recy- the private sector can bring efficiency and innovation cling, and reuse. The financial sustainability of munic- gains and financing, and projects can be eligible for ipal services needs to be improved to facilitate these finance from global sources (see Box 5.13 for an exam- changes, with greater emphasis placed on creating ple from City Of Monterry, Mexico). BOX 5.13 City of Monterrey, Mexico—Municipal Waste to Energy and GHG Emissions Reduction Project City of Monterrey, Mexico. © Wirestock. The city of Monterrey, Mexico, with the support of the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the World Bank, devel- oped a solution to address the city’s issues with waste management and electricity provision. To implement inte- grated waste management in the participating municipalities, a PPP was established. Private operators of landfills contracted by the municipalities were required to collect recyclable materials and utilize biogas to generate electric- ity at a more competitive price than the national grid. While the landfills and equipment remained the property of the municipalities, operations were contracted to the private sector. The waste-to-energy landfill initiative was eligible for funding from the Clean Development Mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol, and the profitability of bundling such various activities as energy generation, recycling, and public works attracted private sector participation. The initial investment for the project amounted to $25 million, with 53 percent from private funding. The partnership received a grant of $6 million from GEF, which improved the internal rate of return of the project from 13 percent to 28 percent. Results have been positive: Between 2004 and 2020, the initia- tive reduced CO2 emissions by 5.7 MtCO2eq and generated financial savings for the municipality worth several million dollars. This was achieved by providing low-cost electricity to power the metro rail system and public lighting. The revenues generated were then used to support a proof-of-concept solar energy supply to public schools in a low-in- come community within the metropolitan area. Source: "Reality Check: Lessons from 25 Policies Advancing a Low Carbon Future." (World Bank. 2023). 121 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA 8. Resilient and efficient municipal services Recommended Actions Relevant Agencies Priority » Develop priority investment plans to upgrade SWM infrastructure including promoting ULB, MoHUA, Short term public awareness. Strengthen technical capacities for the operation of SWM infrastructure States » Undertake a city level analysis of water sector to improve energy efficiency and ULB, MoHUA, Short term address high operational costs States » Undertake a city level deeper analysis of sewage sector to address key challenges ULB, MoHUA, Short term and develop effective and innovative solutions including the reuse and development of States supportive infrastructure » Improve water efficiency by installing water storage and water treatment systems in ULB, MoHUA, Medium to long residential and commercial buildings. States term » Invest in efficient and low-carbon SWM Note: Relevant ministries identified are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Priority: Immediate Priority: Next 1 year; Short term: 1 to 5 years; Medium to Long term: 5 to 10 years. Key acronyms: IMD: India Meteorological Department; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoRTH: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; and ULB: Urban Local Body. and achieving co-benefits of synergies between 9 Invest in resilient and green public transport urban mobility and air quality improvements through: (i) a modal shift toward non-motorized and public transit; (ii) TOD and compact city concepts; and (iii) multimodal integration to provide seamless connec- Transitioning to low carbon urban transport and tivity. Box 5.5 discusses the example of Yokohama, adapting it to climate change effects would also Japan, where innovative urban planning included help reduce the high levels of air pollution. Indian cities can benefit from transitioning urban transport transport modal shifts to public transport and the adoption of EVs/FCVs. 9. Resilient and green public transport Recommended Actions Relevant Agencies Priority » Strengthen transit-oriented development (TOD) and compact city concepts ULB and state with Short term » Strengthen public transportation facilities including its electrification relevant sectors, private sector » Improve multimodal integration to help provide seamless connectivity Medium to long term Note: Relevant ministries identified are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Priority: Immediate Priority: Next 1 year; Short term: 1 to 5 years; Medium to Long term: 5 to 10 years. Key acronyms: IMD: India Meteorological Department; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoRTH: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; and ULB: Urban Local Body. 122 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India relatively limited and comprise only a small share of 10 Encourage resilient and green buildings and housing the large total iinvestments in housing in the coming decades. It is critical to support informal settlements and low-income housing in improving resilience and There are opportunities to promote and incentiv- energy efficiency measures since they are most vul- ize resilient and green housing and buildings. Since nerable to climate shocks. Box 5.14 describes how an housing generates emissions for its entire lifespan, integrated approach to energy efficiency in a Buenos these interventions need to be taken sooner rather Aires informal settlement reduced energy use, water than later, initially targeting high-income housing consumption, and energy use embedded in materials. types which use the most energy. Although green It also shows how policy and practices can also tackle housing investments will require incremental costs climate mitigation in informal settlement upgrading upfront, the extra costs of solar and green housing are and retrofitting. BOX 5.14 Energy-efficient, Affordable Housing in Buenos Aires Improve public spaces and energy efficiency measures in Buenos Aires, Argentina. In the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires in Argentina, Villa 31, one of the oldest informal settlements, is home to 35,000 people. The World Bank, through the Metropolitan Buenos Aires Urban Transformation Project, provided technical assistance with support from the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program to pursue energy effi- ciency measures in housing, infrastructure, and service delivery. This included energy-efficient housing retrofits in four neighborhoods for 75,000 residents that provided insulation, weatherproofing, solar heating systems and LED street lighting. Taken together, these improvements resulted in 20 percent less energy use, 20 percent less water consumption, and 20 percent less embodied energy in materials. Further, the Centro de Desarrollo Emprendedor y Laboral (CeDEL), a job training center that helps residents and local business owners, was Argentina’s first project to achieve EDGE certification, a certification system focused on making residential and commercial buildings in emerging market countries more resource efficient. Source: Project Summary available at: https://projects.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/project-detail/P159843 123 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA 10. Resilient and green housing Recommended Actions Relevant Agencies Priority » Continue to promote installation of solar panels ULB and state with MoHUA support , Short term Private Sector » Improve green housing interventions ULB and state with MoHUA support , Short term Private Sector » Consider applying planning regulations to promote more compact, ULB and state with MoHUA support , Short term multifamily housing development Private Sector » Improve energy efficiency in residential and commercial buildings by ULB and state with MoHUA support , Short term updating appliances and promoting sustainable cooling Private Sector Note: Relevant ministries identified are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Priority: Immediate Priority: Next 1 year; Short term: 1 to 5 years; Medium to Long term: 5 to 10 years. Key acronyms: IMD: India Meteorological Department; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoRTH: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; and ULB: Urban Local Body. 5.3 INVEST IN NATIONAL AND STATE URBAN focus on interventions such as NbS and risk-sensi- RESILIENCE PROGRAMS ADDRESSING tive urban planning; cities with both high present and high future risk should embed flood protection into FLOODING AND EXTREME HEAT both existing urban areas and areas of expansion; The national and state governments have the and cities with both low present and low future risk opportunity to launch urban resilience programs can focus on maintaining drainage infrastructure to that create an enabling environment, support pol- keep it functional in the decades to come (see sec- icy reforms, and provide technical, financial, and tion 2.3 and Figure 2.11). For urban heat, while many operational support to high-risk states and cit- cities such as Ahmedabad have successfully imple- ies. National flood and heat resilience programs are mented HAPs, many small and medium size cities proposed in this report. This national approach to will need the expertise and resources to prepare and both flooding and heat is needed because these cli- implement local heat action planning and measures, mate-related and climate-induced risks typically and a larger national or state level program is needed. extend beyond urban jurisdictional boundaries and require higher level and cross-sectoral coordination. A supporting initiative is needed to improve insti- In the case of urban flood management, while some tutional capacity on urban resilience. Support in investments and actions (such as maintenance of the improving government staff numbers and their skills urban drainage system) fall under the purview of the in climate resilient and low-carbon development is local government, critical aspects such as manage- needed together with the national and state pro- ment of the watershed and the river basin and coastal grams on flood and extreme heat. A national urban management may fall under the state or national line climate resilience hub can support local government ministry. capacity building. In addition, organizational respon- sibilities need to be clarified. Responsibilities for National and state programs can not only develop urban resilience are often fragmented, and limited solutions for the higher level and trans-jurisdic- local governments have departments that address tional problems but can also help identify the hazards like urban flood risk. The planning capacity appropriate intervention for cities—for example, of urban local governments needs to be enhanced, cities with low present risk but high future risk should particularly for spatial planning, risk-sensitive urban 124 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India land use planning, and infrastructure planning. It with a national facility to support project prepara- will be necessary also to develop capacity in data tion and implementation. The CITIIS and NIUA has collection and risk assessment, including hydrome- been playing a key role in this regard and can con- teorological and geospatial data, to factor this into tinue to support Indian cities. State-level initiatives planning, and to build the systems and capacity for can be supported by existing networks of urban local preparedness, response, and recovery in case of governments. See a more detailed recommendations extreme events and disaster. for flood and heat resilience program, resilient and efficient urban development and municipal services A national hub for collecting and monitoring cli- in Table 5.1A and 5.1B. See Annex 4 for detailed rec- mate resilience and GHG data is needed, together ommendations, challenges and opportunities. TABLE 5.1 National and State Level Recommendations I: Launch Flood and Extreme Heat Resilience Program for Indian Cities Key Recommendations Relevant Ministries and Agencies* Priority 1. Improve Robust and Granular Risk Data for Indian Cities A. Make detailed risk data and hazard maps available to Indian cities and States, MoHUA, NDMA and SDMA, Immediate Identify cities and communities at a high risk for extreme heat, flood and water ULBs; MHA, MoEFCC scarcity together with other critical hazards that a particular city is exposed to. B. Support high risk cities in undertaking detailed vulnerability assessment, MoHUA, NIUA, CITIIS, State, ULBs, Short-term and updating the information regularly, making it available to the public. NDMA and SDMA C. All high-risk cities undertake risk assessment and update it regularly States, UDD, ULBs, SDMAs Medium to long-term 2. Strengthen Impact Based Urban Early Warning and Response Systems for High-risk Cities A. Develop recommendations to improve impact-based heat, flood, water State and ULBs with MHA, IMD, Immediate scarcity and other hazard warning for high-risk Indian cities NDMA, SDMA, State, District priority Administration B. Provide technical and financial support to high-risk cities in improving MoHUA, with MHA, IMD, Short term impact based early warning and response system, undertaking communication NDMA, SDMA, State, District campaign to prepare high risk communities Administration 3. Launch National and State Integrated Urban Flood and Water Resilience Program A. Strengthen national, state and local urban flood management policies and MoHUA with State UDD Short-term action plans (see Box 2.4) B. Undertake local prevention actions based on flood risk modeling including State, UDD, ULBs Short term storm water management and regulations C. Support high risk cities in improving flood resilience and water scarcity MoHUA with State, UDD, NDMA, Medium to resilience actions based on climate impacts and settlement growth pattern SDMA long term (see Box 2.4) D. Invest in integrated urban and upstream flood management infrastructure State, UDD, ULBs Medium to at watershed level, improving multi-sectoral and multi-jurisdiction coordination long term E. Improve water storage capacity in water scarce cities: Invest in nature- State, UDD, ULBs Medium to based and structural solutions for water storage long term 125 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA TABLE 5.1. (cont.) Key Recommendations Relevant Ministries and Agencies* Priority 4. Launch National and State Extreme Heat Resilience Program for Indian Cities A. Provide guidance, financial and technical support to high-risk cities in MoHUA with MoHWF, State Urban Immediate developing Heat Action Plans and implementation roadmap and Health Departments priority B. Support high risk cities in implementing heat action plan, including MoHUA with MoHFW, State Urban Short term improving urban greenery, early warning and response systems, shift in and Health depts. working hours and cool roof programs (See Table 2.2) 5. Support High-risk and Most Vulnerable Urban Population Provide technical and financial support to ULBs in helping identify and MoHUA- Affordable housing Short term improve resilience of informal settlements and high-risk communities program, States (urban and slum including migrant labor and population before, during and after climate and redevelopment agencies), MoWCD disaster II: Ensure Resilient and Efficient Urban Development and Municipal Services Key Recommendations Relevant Ministries and Agencies* Priority 6. Strengthen Regulations, Infrastructure Standards and Integrated Planning for Compact and Resilient Urban Development A. Develop guidance and undertake policy reforms, provide technical and MoHUA, TCPO, NIUA, CITIIS, CPEEHO, Short term financial support to ULBs to adopt and implement risk-based landuse planning, State and ULBs; relevant sectoral infrastructure standards, flood and storm water regulations, and building codes ministries B. Identify actions and develop guidance for improving multisectoral and MoHUA, TCPO, NIUA, CITIIS, CPEEHO, Short term integrated spatial and landuse planning and urban management for multi- State and ULBs hazards beyond city borders. C. Enable ULBs to support city expansion and population density increase in MoHUA, TCPO, NIUA, CITIIS, Short term safe areas based on hazard risk assessment CPEEHO, State and ULBs D. Support cities in mapping stranded assets and improving their MoHUA, TCPO, NIUA, CITIIS, CPEEHO, Short term adaptation, use, and management in a resilient and sustainable manner State and ULBs 7. Resilient, Efficient and Green Municipal Services A. Develop a national road map with clear priorities to upgrade resilient and MoHUA, CPEEHO with states and Short term efficient urban mobility, water, and wastewater infrastructure, based on ULBs city size and needs. B. Develop a road map with clear priorities and timeline (see Table 3.4) to MoHUA, CPEEHO with states and Short term improve solid waste management ULBs C. Ensure efficient water and wastewater management MoHUA, CPEEHO with states and Medium to long ULBs term D. Improve water efficiency by installing energy efficient water storage and MoHUA, CPEEHO with states and Medium to long water treatment systems in residential and commercial buildings ULBs term 8. Resilient, Efficient and Green Buildings and Housing A. Improve the policy and regulatory framework in the housing sector on MoHUA, CPEEHO with states and Short term integrating climate resilience and energy efficiency actions ULBs 126 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India TABLE 5.1. (cont.) Key Recommendations Relevant Ministries and Agencies* Priority B. Raise awareness and provide training and incentives for private sector in MoHUA, CPEEHO with states and Short term real estate industry and users of housing ULBs C. Improve energy efficiency in residential and commercial buildings by MoHUA, CPEEHO with states and Short term updating appliances, supporting solar panels on roof-tops, energy efficient ULBs housing retrofit, or new construction D. Improve planning regulations to promote compact, multi-family housing MoHUA, CPEEHO with states and Short term development through high-density housing development ULBs E. Improve state and local capacity to effectively implement bylaws, MoHUA, CPEEHO with states and Medium to long policies and codes at building level ULBs term 9. Resilient, Efficient and Green Urban Infrastructure and Public Transport A. Improve the maintenance of infrastructure assets including roads, MoHUA, State (UDD and Transport Short term drainage system and culverts. Improve asset management system with exposure, Departments), ULBs current condition, and other maintenance information B. Promote solar and energy efficient streetlights MoHUA, State (UDD and Transport Short term Departments), ULBs C. Increase infrastructure system resilience: Identify critical assets in key MoHUA, State (UDD and Transport Medium to long systems, create, and enforce risk-informed infrastructure system masterplan Departments), ULBs, Railways term D. Increase resilient and energy efficient resilient public transport network: MoHUA, State (UDD and Transport Medium to long improve its electrification and make all new infrastructure investment adapted to Departments), ULBs, Railways term future risk 10. Strengthen Municipal Capacity for Resilient Urban Development » Improve the number, training, guidance, and skills of municipal staff working MoHUA; State, ULBs, think tanks Medium to long on resilient and green urban development and urban institutions term » Empower ULBs to undertake risk based planning and urban development III: Develop a Funding and Financing Strategy, Implementation Roadmap to achieve Urban Resilience Key Recommendations Relevant ministries and agencies Priority 11. Improve ULBs’ Access to Finance and Funding for Urban Resilience A. Develop a climate financing and funding roadmap: To meet huge MoHUA, MoF, States, ULBs Immediate financing needs (see section 4.1), identify potential sources of financing and priority funding including budgets, market-based financing, carbon market revenues, and private investments (see Box 4.4) B. Provide technical and financial support to ULBs: Improve their awareness MoHUA, States Short term of financing sources, technical capacity and expertise as well as support for implementing bankable projects, complex PPPs, engaging with private sector C. Identify actions to improve ULBs’ cashflow generation / Own Source MoHUA, States, ULBs Short term Revenues from underlying investments and services 127 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA TABLE 5.1. (cont.) Key Recommendations Relevant ministries and agencies Priority D. Improve cost recovery and financial sustainability of municipal MoHUA, States, ULBs services: from water and wastewater, urban roads, sanitation, solid waste management, and municipal assets 12. Improve Private sector Engagement in Urban Resilience A. Identify policy and regulatory barriers and take actions to improve MoHUA, MoF, States  Short term private sector engagement in urban resilience solution (see section 4.3 and Annex 2) B. Build capacity of city officials to prepare capital investment plans, MoHUA, State, ULBs Short term strengthen implementation, improve monitoring and evaluation C. Identify and adopt innovative solutions and guidance to improve PPP in MoHUA ,States, ULBs Short term resilient and energy efficient urban solutions (see Table 4.2) D. Strengthen and improve municipal credit worthiness including accounting MoHUA, State, ULBs Medium to long practices and budget tagging by delivering technical and financial assistance term E. Provide technical and financial assistance to improve ULB accounting, MoHUA, State, ULBs Medium to long procurement and contracting including climate budget tagging, accrual-based term accounting measures, improving capacity of city officials on preparing and tracking results on capital investment plans, and procurement and contracting processes Note: Relevant ministries identified in the table are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Acronym: IMD: India Meteorological Department; CITIIS: Cities Investment to Innovate, Integrate and Sustain, a program under Smart Cities Mission; CPEEHO: Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organization; MoEFCC: Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change; MoF: Ministry of Finance; MoHA: Ministry of Home Affairs; MoHFW: Ministry of Health and family welfare; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoWCD: Ministry of Women and Child Development; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; ULB: Urban Local Body Priority: Immediate Priority: Next 1 year; Short term: 1 to 5 years; Medium to Long term: 5 to 10 years 5.4 DEVELOP A FINANCE STRATEGY FOR and low-carbon infrastructure investment of up to 2 CLIMATE RESILIENT URBAN DEVELOPMENT percent of GDP would be required by 2050 and up to 2.5 percent would be needed by 2070. The high cost of investing in climate-resilient Apart from additional fiscal transfers, private, or and low-carbon cities underscores the need for international finance can also be considered. The financial support. total costs will be considerably above current lev- Future urban growth will cost a considerably els: India could expect to spend more than $2 trillion higher share of GDP. To finance the infrastructure between now and 2050 on urban infrastructure that is that will be required to accommodate the doubling climate resilient and low-carbon and up to $10 trillion of the urban population by 2070, India will need to or more, cumulatively, by 2070. If the pace of urban- rapidly increase the share of GDP allocated to urban ization accelerates, the nation might have to spend infrastructure investments, even without taking into some $2.5–2.9 trillion by 2050, and around $12 trillion account climate-related needs. When climate-related or more by 2070. Most of the financing will have to investment is factored in, even higher shares of GDP come from the public purse, while private sector, or will need to be allocated. Achieving climate-resilient international sources can also play a big role. One 128 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India focus area is through climate-targeted intergovern- climate-related investment, cities should explore cli- mental fiscal transfers supported by international mate-related global sources of finance and technical grants and financing. Box 5.15 discusses the exam- assistance that are currently largely untapped. Here, ple of fiscal transfer in Kenya’s Program for financing central and state governments have an important role locally led climate action. The program uses inter- to play in facilitating access. To improve the financial national financing to support decentralization of sustainability of public services, which also typically financing and decision making on climate action to lack adequate funding, ULBs need to apply efficiency the local level, with a particular focus on vulnerable measures and develop higher levels of cost recovery populations. and own source revenue. Cities will also need to strengthen their financial In order to accurately track climate spending and capacity. to attract further climate financing, accurate bud- Climate action will require both access to new geting and monitoring will be vital. Current urban sources of finance and strengthening of imple- climate-related investment is very limited and is mentation capacity. ULBs depend largely on fiscal often not captured by the accounting system. Even transfers and often have limited absorptive and imple- where cities are taking additional climate action, mentation capacity for infrastructure development. many climate-related investments are not system- City-level financing is limited, with low OSR. Most atically tracked, impeding both monitoring and the urban infrastructure is financed through intergovern- attraction of financing. Indian cities should improve mental fiscal transfers. Only a small part of this financ- and harmonize the tracking of climate spending in ing has been climate related. In addition, absorptive a consistent manner, “tagging” these expenditures. and implementation capacity for urban infrastructure Guidance from the central and state governments delivery is limited. To better deliver urban infrastruc- could help with this tracking, and this could in turn ture, including climate-related investment, it will be help attract climate financing. Some cities in India essential to strengthen absorptive and implementa- are already taking initiatives to improve climate-re- tion capacity and to improve city-level financing of silient capital investment planning. Box 5.16 illus- infrastructure, including OSR. Specifically, to finance trates the example of Ahmedabad, Gujarat. BOX 5.15 Kenya’s Fiscal Transfers to Support Local Climate Action Kenya’s Financing Locally-Led Climate Action (FLLoCA) Program-For-Results provides dedicated, ringfenced finance for climate action, predominately at the decentralized level. Some 90 percent of program commitments are targeted at the county and community level. The program supports partnerships between local governments and communi- ties to assess climate risks and identify socially inclusive solutions tailored to local needs. This ensures that finance is available to match local needs and local decisions, and that support for climate resilience reaches those most at risk, including women, youth, persons with disabilities, the elderly, and other traditionally marginalized groups. The remaining 10 percent of program funds is allocated to building the capacity of national systems to support these activities. FLLoCA required a national policy reform that made it a requirement for counties to make county-level climate change action plans. These were developed through participatory methodologies endorsed by county governments. Source: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/650141633388861479/pdf/Final-Technical-Assessment-Financing-Locally-Led-Climate- Action-Program-P173065.pdf 129 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA BOX 5.16 Climate Resilient and Green Capital Investment Planning in Ahmedabad, Gujarat Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation (AMC) is developing and institutionaliz- ing a climate resilient and green capital investment planning (CIP) system to plan, prioritize, and finance infrastruc- ture investments in line with the city’s urban expansion and associated ser- vice demands. The CIP aims to address planning and financing-related con- straints in budget execution and fund utilization. The CIP system is to be developed in a climate-risk-informed manner to ensure Sabarmati riverfront in the city of Ahmedabad, India. © saiko3p that future infrastructure development and service delivery is climate resilient and emission-sensitive. The focus will be on establishing a structured process for cross-sectoral prioritization of both capital investment and O&M expenditure needs to inform budgetary allocations at both the AMC level and the department/zone level in a streamlined manner. The initiative will improve investment implementation which has been almost stagnant over the past five years due to: (i) weak OSRs, limited grant support, and constrained access to commercial financing; (ii) lack of strategic long-term capital investment planning and bud- geting systems; and (iii) emerging institutional capacity constraints to deliver an expanded capital investment program and manage complex issues related to climate risks and natural resource management in the city. Source: "Gujarat Resilient Cities Partnership: Ahmedabad City Resilience Project." (Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation, 2022). Available at: https:// uk.search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=E210GB105G0&p=Ahmedabad+Municipal+Corporation+(AMC)+is+developing+and+institutionaliz- ing+a+climate-smart+capital+investment+planning+(CIP)+system Some cities have scope to increase OSR or to bor- and (iii) access credit enhancement mechanisms and row on capital markets. While many Indian cities guarantees for climate-related projects. rely heavily on transfers, urban local governments with higher fiscal autonomy have more available Cities will also need to strengthen the role of sources and instruments to leverage OSR such as private sector in urban climate solutions. property taxes, user charges/fees, and LVC mech- Climate resilience and low-carbon development anisms. Cities may look into climate-targeted OSR are the concern of all, and engagement of the pri- instruments such as emission/pollution/conges- vate sector is essential. Cities will need to ensure, tion charges, plastic bag levies, Property-Assessed by regulation, education, and collaboration, that pri- Clean Energy (PACE), and sale of carbon credits, vate investment optimizes resilience and low-carbon with a caveat that increasing OSR may be politically approaches and invests in them. The private sector sensitive. The 27 large creditworthy “high potential” can bring both efficiency and innovation, and widen municipal corporations (MCs) with investment grade access to innovative financial instruments, and also to credit ratings under AMRUT can: (i) access capital insurance for flooding and other hazards. Involvement markets for climate-targeted debt financing such of the private sector also helps to ensure compliance as green loans and municipal borrowing (including with regulations such as building bylaws, and to build green bonds); (ii) provide project-level equity financ- awareness and engagement in disaster preparedness ing and structure PPPs for climate-related projects; and response. There are innovative approaches to 130 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India PPPs, notably the LVC model, which allows proceeds 5.5 STRENGTHEN COLLABORATION AND from increased land value to be spent for financ- COOPERATION OF ALL STAKEHOLDERS ing resilient infrastructure development and green investment (see Box 5.17). Cities will need to improve collaboration between different sectors that contribute to resilience National and state governments can support cities’ measures. financial strategies. Measures for managing flood and urban heat, as well Assured financing and funding will be essential to as those for reducing emissions, require multi-sector allow cities to plan and invest for resilience and mit- planning, financing, and implementation. Currently igation. Transparent, predictable, and accountable many sectors follow a siloed approach which makes strategies for climate-targeted intergovernmental it difficult to formulate integrated climate solutions. fiscal transfers and performance-based grants would Cities will need to bring key stakeholders together provide cities with the ability to plan and appropriate to better cooperate in sharing of information, devel- funds for climate actions. See Table 5.1C and Annex opment of integrated and comprehensive resilience 4 for detailed recommendations. measures, and joint learning from implementation. BOX 5.17 Innovative Finance Mechanisms for Resilient Urban Infrastructure and Development in Tokyo Tokyo aerial view from Roppongi Hills. © AlpamayoPhoto Investment needs for climate-resilient cities extend beyond the capability of public finances, and there are lessons to be learned from the experience of Tokyo, Japan. The Metropolitan Area of Tokyo owes much of its development success to innovative PPP schemes such as the LVC model, where financial and regulatory mechanisms allow pro- ceeds from increased land value to be spent for financing resilient infrastructure development and creating public spaces, among others. Common instruments include land readjustment (where landowners can pool their land for reconfiguration and contribute a part of the land to be sold to raise funds for public infrastructure) and air rights sale (which allow landowners to transfer or “sell” portions of the unused FAR to adjacent parcels) to finance TOD and mixed-use development projects. Many large-scale TODs developed under these plans incorporate state-of-the-art adaptation and mitigation measures into both public and private spaces, as there is an understanding that such measures increase the value of the assets and real estate. Source: "Financing Innovations for Municipal Infrastructure and Public Service Projects." [Tokyo Development Learning Center (TDLC), 2023]. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/tokyo-development-learning-center/tdd/property_tax_and_land_based_financing_story 131 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Government of Kerala secretariat building, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala. © Anil Dave. All levels of government need to prioritize inter- waste and debris flowing in waterbodies across juris- sectoral climate adaptation planning and develop- dictions. An issue requiring cooperation across inter- ment actions. These are relatively new concerns for national boundaries is air and water pollution. Much Indian cities, and they are yet to be fully integrated of northern India, for example, is part of the Indo- within urban planning policies and programs. The Gangetic Plain and Himalayan Foothill (IGP-HF) region role of the central government to support national of South Asia, which requires regional cooperation to policies and programs on urban planning and devel- address air and water pollution. opment aligned to macroeconomic parameters at the national level. State governments are responsi- Cities need to better involve the citizens. ble for: (i) defining urban development policies at the Urban local governments have a key role in generat- state level; (ii) establishing local government institu- ing awareness and improving the enabling environ- tions to implement the urban policy agenda; and (iii) ment for civil society involvement. Private actions supporting urban programs and projects. The basic contribute considerably to overall resilience and thus national framework for urban planning and develop- awareness and the active participation of the private ment plans and policies, established in the Town and sector and of communities and individuals is key to Country Planning Act, empowers ULBs to prepare and improving resilience. Cities will also need to develop, implement plans. through education, a pattern of popular engagement in green, sustainable approaches. Overall, involve- Cities will need to cooperate beyond their ment of the communities is essential to developing boundaries on certain regional, national, or a better understanding of climate impacts, to ensure international issues. compliance with regulations such as building bylaws, Several areas may require cooperation at the state and to build awareness and engagement in disaster or national level, or even at the international level. preparedness and response. These areas include: flood management, where a watershed or river basin or coastal management The specific roles of key stakeholders and the approach may be required; and SWM, where inter-ju- mechanisms for cooperation among them are risdictional approaches may be required to tackle detailed in Box 5.18. 132 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India BOX 5.18 Role of Key Stakeholders in Advancing Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Urban Growth Achieving a climate-resilient and low-carbon transition in India’s cities will require the support of all stakeholders. The Role of National and State Governments A national program, a national hub, and a national support facility The national government can launch national programs that create an enabling environment, support policy reforms, and provide technical, financial, and operational support to high-risk states and cities. National flood and heat resilience programs are proposed in this report. This national approach to both flooding and heat is needed because these climate-related and climate-induced risks typically extend beyond urban jurisdictional boundaries and require higher-level and cross-sectoral coordination. A national hub for collecting and monitoring climate resilience and GHG data is needed, together with a national facility to support project preparation and implementation. The NIUA has been playing a key role and can continue to support different levels of Indian cities. State-level initiatives can be supported by existing networks of urban local governments. Support to policy and operational frameworks and capacity building National and state governments can strengthen integrated regulatory, policy, and operational frameworks and improve state and local capacities to effectively plan for and implement resilient housing, SWM, and urban infrastructure. One critical sector for national and state government support is housing, where India has a first-rate opportunity to develop climate-resilient and green housing on a massive scale. This is because the country is likely to double its housing stock by 2070, building more than 144 million new dwelling units. Yet the housing sector is highly vulnerable to climate impacts due to overcrowding, obsolete construction, poor-quality building materials, unplanned settlements in high-risk zones, and inadequate basic services. These problems are closely linked to poor compliance with building bylaws resulting from the lack of coordinated action by local authorities, lack of local technical capacity, and lack of enforcement and penalties for non-compliance. What is needed is for national government to work with states and cities to introduce integrated regulatory, policy and operational frameworks, and to improve state and local capaci- ties to effectively plan for and implement resilient and low-carbon green housing. Similarly, the SWM sector needs national and state government support to develop a fully coherent framework for an efficient and much lower carbon future. What is needed are regulations to stop open dumping and mandatory design specifications and emissions standards for the development, operation, and monitoring of low-carbon dis- posal infrastructure. Financial strategies Transparent, predictable, and accountable strategies for climate-targeted intergovernmental fiscal transfers and performance-based grants would provide cities with the ability to plan and appropriate funds for climate actions. While transfers from public revenue constitute the largest share of urban local government funding, they are often subject to challenges that limit their efficiency and intended outcomes. Transfers may lack predictability, have unclear allocation formulas, and may often be delayed. Streamlining and improving the clarity of transfer programs or systems will encourage cities to better plan their budgets—both in the short and the longer term. Furthermore, while many cities are taking additional climate actions, climate investments are often not tracked, impeding mon- itoring of spending on activities that meet climate mitigation and adaptation goals, and making it more difficult to attract financing. Indian states and cities have started to harmonize and improve the tracking of climate budgeting. Strengthening this process will allow cities to track progress and to access climate performance-based grants, incen- tivizing cities to enhance their capacities and performance. 133 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA BOX 5.18 (cont.) The Role of Urban Local Governments Urban local governments have primary responsibility for climate planning and action. Institutional strengthening is a vital area of focus. This includes improving local government staff numbers and their skills in climate-smart develop- ment, strengthening financial capacity, climate budgeting and tracking, and improving access to finance for climate action. Urban local governments also have a key role in generating awareness and improving the enabling environ- ment for private sector and civil society involvement. Information and Integration Local governments have a critical role in data collection and in evidence-based policy making at the city level, so climate adaptation measures can be tailored based on risk profiles of specific urban areas. It is essential that cities develop and improve city-level climate data to allow for evidence-based and risk-informed decision making to tailor climate adaptation measures to the local risk profiles. For example, effective urban flood risk mitigation measures should address the city’s risk exposure based on (i) geographic characteristics (inland/coastal, mountainous/low- land, vegetation coverage, infiltration capacity of soils); (ii) urbanization characteristics (population density, built-up area, land-use patterns, sprawl patterns); (iii) flood risk characteristics (fluvial, pluvial, or coastal); and (iv) existing hazard management measures (presence and maintenance of drainage, regulations, early-warning and emergency preparedness). Similarly, cities need to adopt measures to tackle urban extreme heat using an evidence-based under- standing of extreme heat event trends and on a mapping of hot spots of UHI effects. Investment and Implementation Realizing the mitigation potential in cities requires policies and measures to be prioritized based on the city’s car- bon emission inventory, urban growth form, and development path. Successfully pursuing low-carbon development pathways will require investment in urban infrastructure and systems that significantly contribute to India’s GHG mit- igation targets. The majority of carbon emissions in urban areas are from the energy, transport, and building sectors. These emissions vary depending on multiple factors including urban density and the structure of a city’s economy. It is crucial to understand the city’s carbon emission inventories, baselines, and development scenarios to devise realis- tic mitigation targets and measures. The striking possible results cited in the introduction to this chapter —reduction of emissions by 80 percent by 2050 and significant reduction in development on greenfield sites—require a strategic blend of measures if they are to be achieved, including a significantly cleaner electricity mix, reduced energy demand, greater urban density, electrification of transport, efficient waste management strategies, efficient urban amenities, and cooling strategies such as green spaces. The Role of the Private Sector Innovation The private sector has a key role in enabling innovation; supporting the provision of green, efficient, and resilient municipal services and buildings; and providing innovative financial instruments and insurance for flooding and other hazards. Involving the private sector and developing strategies to improve cities’ access to finance will help the transition toward the low-carbon growth path. Access to financing sources and instruments differs depending on the city’s needs, its fiscal autonomy and capacity, the incentive framework, and its creditworthiness. 134 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India BOX 5.18 (cont.) The Role of Citizens Involvement The involvement of citizen and civil society organizations is essential to develop a better understanding of climate impacts, to ensure compliance with regulations such as building bylaws, and to build awareness and engagement in disaster preparedness and response. 5.6 THE WAY FORWARD the central, state and local levels, (ii) assess what works well and what can be improved, considering As a priority, the national government can develop national and international experience in similar sit- a dedicated national urban and state resilience uations, and (iii) thereafter propose additionalities to program addressing flood and extreme heat, and the ongoing work based on the recommendations of a funding strategy based on the recommendations this report, developing a funding strategy and imple- of this report. The urban resilience program priori- mentation plan, prioritizing key actions, roles and ties are identified in Table 5.1 and can be in the form responsibilities, and including timeline and budget of a new urban mission, building on lessons from requirements, as applicable. Recommended next earlier missions, and developed with key counter- steps and potential responsibilities are in Table 5.2. parts including state governments and key sectoral Supporting recommendations on improving multi- ministries. As a next step, it is recommended that sectoral, and integrated spatial planning for resilient a national multisectoral task force be formed con- infrastructure standards, guidance, and roll out for sisting of representatives from the key ministries in cities as well as measures to improve institutional developing a new national urban mission or program capacity building together with consideration for city on urban resilience. The task force can: (i) carry out size and hazard profile can also be considered. an assessment of ongoing policies and schemes at TABLE 5.2 Recommended Next Steps Next Steps Responsibility Timeline Conduct a comprehensive mapping of relevant ongoing initiatives and programs to MoHUA Next six months feed into detailed recommendations that identify the roles and responsibilities of key stakeholders at the national, state, and local levels, prioritize key actions, and develop timeline and budget requirements. Develop a dedicated national urban resilience program and a funding strategy based on the MoF, MoHUA Next one year recommendations of this report- See Table 5.1 Other suggestions: Develop guidance notes to cities based on the report findings and Annex 3 MoHUA (CITIIS Next six months team) Contribute to the National, State, and Local Adaptation Plans based on the report findings MoHUA, MHA and Next one year MoEFCC 135 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Crowd on Mumbai street at night. © EyeEm Mobile GmbH. The new urban resilience program can focus on support, including the Leadership in Climate Change incentivizing and supporting cities for improving Management Program (LCCM); and (iv) development flood and urban heat resilience while ensuring of practical and easily digestible toolkits, templates, a low-carbon development pathway. Leadership and workbooks. CITIIS may benefit from incorporat- and dedicated effort will be required to develop the ing the recommendations provided in this report. program together with funding and an implementa- tion strategy based on the overall climate financing The key findings of the report need to be translated needs. The program will require public and private into practical guidance for cities. As a next step, it is sector engagement and a robust results framework important that key recommendations from the report to monitor progress. A large-scale engagement with are translated into practical guidance for Indian cit- communities, including improved, communications ies. This would be similar to the “Streets for People— will also be crucial to improving public support for Pathways of Change from India’s Smart Cities” (also planned actions. known as the Smart Streets Workbook, https:// itdp.in/resource/streets-for-people-pathways-of- Recommendations in this report can support ongo- change-from-indias-smart-cities/), which provides ing initiatives by the GoI. There are critical syner- case studies of transformational mobility interven- gies between the recommendations from this report tions in more than 50 streets across 40 cities, includ- and the ongoing efforts under the recently launched ing actionable ideas and insights on financing models City Investments to Innovate, Integrate, and Sustain to scale up interventions. Targeted communications (CITIIS) 2.0 Program, which supports (i) strengthening for select themes such as urban flooding, urban heat, of urban climate resilience in selected cities (includ- climate governance, and adaptation, among others, ing on waste management and circular economy, may be useful to cities. A high-level example of what flooding, cyclones, etc.), (ii) development of state- might be included in the toolkit or workbook is shown level CAPs and climate budgets through state level in Figure 5.1. urban climate cells; (iii) bespoke capacity building 136 05 Achieving Climate Resilient Urban Development In India FIGURE 5.2 Example of Matrix of Recommendations Policy & Regulations Planning Implementation Financing Increase Disseminate Establish National Urban Flood unconditional knowledge & literacy Management Policy and Action Plan climate linked on climate finance fiscal transfers for cities to crowd and grants in private sector Offer technical support from national and regional government institutions to improve urban flood management including guidelines, manuals, TORs, management of contracts Establish project preparation facilities NATIONAL for bankable climate projects Develop a program of fluvial floods management: develop main assessment and solutions for Establish credit guarantees and parametric major rivers flood management (including watersheds and coasts), national strategy for fluvial insurance for climate projects floods taking into account water and environment legislation and management Establish standards/guidelines for climate budget tagging Improve urban regulation together with Develop flood forecasting and integrated reservoir Implement Climate economic incentives to improve urban run-off operation systems budget tagging and development in flood zone, wetlands and Develop and operationalize Integrated Implement performance-based around water bodies and drains River Basin Master Plan incentives for climate projects Develop standards, guidelines, and Coordinate with Early Warning Systems at every level Strengthen state-level TORs for urban stormwater master regulatory environment for STATES plans State level flood management private financing interventions including NBS, dams, Support “lagging” cities in developing Ensure coordination of multi-city, riverbank enforcements, dredging, climate smart multi-year capital and multi-sectoral engagements etc. investment and financing plans Develop local flood Coordinate with Urban Develop- Link climate smart capital management and ment Plans and enforce investment plans and climate prevention actions based Nature-Based Solutions such budgeting/tracking to urban building/housing regulations in on risk profiles as Sustainable Urban development and sectoral plans flood prone areas Drainage systems Strengthen local fiduciary and Develop urban drainage and Retrofitting or upgrading of urban financial management, OSR stormwater master plans drainage performance, Improve local revenue base and cost recovery CITIES Urban resilience planning which Maintenance of drainage for municipal services, embeds flood protection into new infrastructure to keep it creditworthiness urban expansion projects as well as functional in the decades to come Strengthen institutional capacity to strategic urban planning implement bankable climate projects 5.7 CONCLUSION be an immediate focus not only on preparing cities for climate impacts but also on shaping new urban Indian cities have a significant opportunity to growth in a climate-resilient, low-carbon manner. adapt to growing climate and disaster impacts and set the country on a path towards vibrant eco- Flooding and extreme heat events are projected nomic growth and prosperity. With the urban pop- to increase significantly in Indian cities. Other cli- ulation expected to double by 2050, increasing from mate impacts such as water scarcity and drought, 480 million to 951 million, more than half of India’s together with other shocks such as earthquakes, are urban growth is still to come. Actions are needed likely to aggravate projected effects and expose even now to better prepare cities in guiding a climate-re- more people and assets. In many cases, cities are not silient, low-carbon manner to avoid the high cost of affected by a single type of climate risk but by com- future disaster damages and losses, impacts, and the pounding flood, heat, and drought risks together with expense of retrofitting infrastructure. There must ongoing urban stress related to rapid urbanization. 137 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Most of the impacts are likely to be borne by the most A transformative and investment program is pro- vulnerable people living in informal settlements or posed in this report, which can support effec- new migrants to the cities. tive urban policies, institutional frameworks, and capacity improvement on one hand, and raise This report delves into the most significant climate resources, including from the private sector, on risks for Indian cities and identifies the urgent and the other. This Chapter summarizes actions and next most cost-effective actions that cities can take steps that national, state, and local governments can to improve their resilience to climate and disaster take and areas where they can work with the private risks. Chapter 2 provided an overview of key climate sector and citizens (see Table 5.1 and Annex 3 and 4). risks, tools, and approaches to improve urban resil- The key to lasting change will be having the national ience. Chapter 3 explored key actions to enhance liv- and state governments work on the framework for ability in cities while following a low-carbon pathway guidance, support, and finance, and supporting the through efficient and modern urban services, green cities—the local leaders and officers—who can lead housing, more green spaces and public amenities, urban resilience actions. Making this step change and cleaner air. Chapter 4 provided an overview of will require systematic support to cities in terms of financing needs and actions to improve public and incentives and capacity building. Tackling the many private financing and funding for climate actions. This dimensions of urban challenges and climate change Chapter highlighted best practices from Indian cities, impacts will also require these leaders and officers along with global examples, to guide the adoption of to make decisions and trade-offs based on the best relevant urban adaptation measures. The impacts of available information. For this reason, investing in climate change are likely to be even more severe than improving digital systems and will also be crucial. the projections, but with increased awareness and Citizen involvement is another key area, and it will be support, Indian cities can continue to drive economic essential for citizens to be involved. growth while improving the overall quality of life. 138 REFERENCES AND ANNEXES Mumbai skyline at night. © R.M. Nunes. 139 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA REFERENCES Ahlfeldt, G., Pietrostefani, E., Schumman, A., & Matsumoto, Desaigues B, Ami D, Bartczak A, Braun-Kohlová M, Chilton T. (2018). 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Available at: https://pubdocs.worldbank. org/en/995111612401797911/Technical-Report-Urban- Performance.pdf 143 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA ANNEX 1. KEY CLIMATE CHANGE CHALLENGES IN INDIAN CITIES Findings from Stakeholder Consultations On Urban Planning and Climate Adaptation A roundtable discussion in December 2022 brought » The urban planning process is currently unable to together representatives from the GoI, city authori- fully account for environmentally sensitive plan- ties, think tanks, academia, and the private sector as ning that accounts for water and flood risk man- well as the World Bank to deliberate over the ongoing agement and other resilience priorities. work and identified priorities for resilient and low car- » The insufficient number of urban planners in ULBs bon urban transition in India. The discussion was held and the absence of master plans in several Indian at the World Bank office with participants joining both cities undermine effective urban planning and cli- in person and virtually. The participants reflected on mate risk management. the reform priorities, analytical progress and gaps, » Urban sprawl is a growing concern for several cit- constraints, and opportunities in designing and ies, moving away from a compact form and toward implementing urban resilience programs, including more carbon intensive ways. Traffic management for ensuring inclusion of marginalized urban commu- is a need in most cities. nities. Key observations emerging from this discus- sion were as follows: » Urban waterfront and river management need attention in Indian cities. On Complexity and Scale of the Challenge On Transport » Different city types face different challenges in India. The coastal cities are facing land subsid- » This is the second largest emitter after industry. A ence and infrastructure damage due to flooding fragmentation of responsibilities affects transport and other hazards; other cities are facing water sector actions due to a lack of full ownership by scarcity and air pollution; hill cities have different city stakeholders. challenges. » Non-motorized transport, though promoted by » While the mitigation discussion often centers on national schemes like AMRUT and SMART Cities, carbon dioxide, other emissions such as methane, does not receive adequate attention or financing. carbon monoxide, plastic pollution, heavy metal/ » Areas where support is needed include: (i) support- toxic compounds pollution, and particulate matter ing ULBs in developing good proposals where good are equally pressing and critical issues for cities. PPP models already exist; (ii) bus service plans for » The fragmentation of functions across multiple Tier 2 cities on a PPP model; and (iii) extending departments and levels (national, state, city) is an support for operational expenditure (not just cap- underlying urban governance challenge in India ital expenditure). that also impacts governance of climate risk. This » For e-mobility: makes the challenge complex, including data col- • There are many good examples where electric lection across departments, across sectors (e.g., vehicles are not only greener but also profitable energy, transport), and for the private sector, (e.g., for delivery companies where e-vehicles which has to deal with multiple stakeholders and can significantly reduce costs per delivery). regulators. 144 Annexes » There is a need for trip-data to support better deci- On Data and Analytics sion making. Data exists with different stakehold- » 220 Indian cities are reporting on the Climate ers and companies for their specific projects. Smart City Assessment Framework (CSCAF) data » While personal cars and 2-wheelers are subsidized, sets on approximately 400 indicators. private buses are not. There is a case for support- » Analytics need to ultimately be able to help a city ing businesses that provide electric buses. identify what are their specific adaptation options, • City authorities need to add buses based on how to choose from these options, and how it population projections and at a larger scale than needs to be done. they currently are. » There is a need for analytics that provide contex- tually relevant and specific solutions because the On Waste Management same climate change challenges (e.g. urban flood- » There needs to be a narrative in which waste is ing) pan out very differently across different Indian seen as a “resource” rather than merely something cities. that needs to be ‘disposed of’. » There is existing urban flood modelling work » Recently the private sector has started working in undertaken for cities like Delhi and Kolkata, includ- this area but there is a huge need and opportunity ing development of a flood early warning system to involve more private sector actors. for Kolkata. » There is a multiplicity of stakeholders from the » A study on climate change impact on micro, small, generation of waste to final disposal. The World and medium enterprises in India has been car- Bank can support this sector by addressing the ried out covering 15 sectors, which highlights the fragmentation problem through standardized interconnectedness of the urban and rural sectors. guidelines and frameworks that do not currently While the industries may be in cities, the value exist. chains extend to rural areas. Programming for » There is also a need to work with future “waste urban transition must also account for this linkage generators.” This is being addressed by some and integration. stakeholders by working with children and youth. On Citizen Engagement On Green Buildings » There are no platforms for citizens to engage with » Despite much effort, green buildings only capture 5 and offer solutions to the urban planning and city percent of the market. The biggest barrier to this is governance processes with respect to climate lack of information and awareness at the consumer change. Some cities have created this as a part of level, including misinformation that these buildings a SMART City scheme where this was mandated, are costlier. There is a need to work on public and but nothing like this exists for risk governance and developer perceptions that green buildings can climate actions. have good payback. » There is a need for localized planning, such as » The lack of a “single window” approval process ward-level planning, as the impacts of climate is a big deterrent for adoption of green buildings change are often localized even within a city. as the permissions process is very cumbersome. » Analytics for the IPCC Assessment Working Group Streamlining this process along with creating a 2 have shown that the greatest gain in well-being single platform where interested consumers can in the urban areas can be achieved only by priori- access the latest technologies and designs is tizing the investment to reduce climate risk for the needed. low-income and marginalized, especially people » There is also a need to work on strengthening the living in the informal settlements. Energy Conservation Act further. 145 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA On Creating an Enabling Environment for the Private of resilience and low carbon interventions. The Sector people who can be brought together keep changing » Need to create revenue models that also account depending on consultants/experts engaged with for the environmental service and not just financial the city at that time. viability, which would help businesses that have Good Practices and Initiatives to deal with the complexity of multiple revenue streams (e.g. in waste, different components have » Surat has taken the lead in many aspects, such as: different uses) and competition from conventional • Recycling and reuse of wastewater: 30 percent production lines (e.g. electricity from waste vs. of tertiary wastewater is being sold to industries electricity from solar). such as textiles and power generation, also act- » PPPs offer great opportunities for addressing com- ing as a source of revenue for the municipal cor- plex urban challenges. Merging the efficiencies and poration; intent to scale this up to 70 percent of innovation of the private sector with the resources wastewater by 2030. of the government. These resources could be • Energy efficiency: The only corporation to invest permitted lands, waste (in the case of the waste money in renewables which meet 20 percent of industry), or financial support in terms of credit the corporation’s energy needs; also investing guarantees or capital subsidies. money in windmill and solar plants; SMC gener- » The financing pool for these projects is immense. ates 250mw of solar energy through different Even if we only look at the capital costs, they can- sources. not be met by the private sector alone without the • E-mobility: Highest number of e-vehicles in support of institutions and lenders. And each of the city (30 percent of Gujarat’s and 1 percent these stakeholders have their own requirements of India’s); tax exemptions in place for promot- for assurance of financing. ing these, including for SMC staff; investing in » Sectors for urban transition, such as waste man- charging infrastructure. agement or transport, need “patient capital.” The • Investments in non-motorized transport infra- World Bank Group can support this by facilitating structure and network. stable structures and partnerships, creating con- • Many SWM initiatives, particularly for plastic vergences between central and state priorities waste management. such that limited public monies can be leveraged. » Bhubaneswar: Pedestrian and walking friendly. Urban Governance Challenges » Multi stakeholder alliance group “Climate Alliance » Fragmentation of functions in the city emerges as Partnership,” comprising over 75 organizations, set the biggest challenge, needing innovative and sus- up by the Climate Center for Cities at NIUA. tained efforts. » E-mobility good practices: Analysis-based » Smaller cities do not budget for technical staff for introduction of buses for commuters traveling risk assessment or data collection. Even where from Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar to Gujarat there are budgets, staff attrition and turnover are International Finance-Tec city (GIFT) city which very high. not only reduces the private car trips but also the » There is no dedicated platform that can bring space needed for parking in GIFT city; electric together city authorities and experts on discussions scooters for delivery companies. 146 Annexes ANNEX 2. UNLOCKING PRIVATE SECTOR FINANCE Recommendations to strengthen the policy and regulatory environment and build a robust framework to catalyze finance and regulate compliance (prioritized from short term to long term) Recommendation Key Stakeholders Priority Ecosystem-level support required to unlock private finance  Pilot and test innovative business models that reduce upfront » Solution providers  Short term  capital investment of end-users to improve creditworthiness of » Research institutions/foundations/think tanks  solutions   » Private investors  Design and conduct training for financial institutions and » Industry associations (bankers and engineers)  Short term  technical officials at the national and sub-national level, aimed » Non-profit entities and think tanks  at driving more investment in the sector  » Regulatory bodies    » Multilaterals and bilaterals  Deliver technical and financial assistance to enable transition to » Central and state government  Short term  accrual-based accounting measures for ULBs to improve credit » Development Finance Institutions   worthiness of cities  » Specialized finance and auditing agencies  » Policy thinktanks  Provide technical assistance to restructure the contracting » Government agencies  Short term  process of the ULBs to attract companies and private financiers  » Development finance institutions  » Think tanks  Develop and integrate frameworks for climate budget tagging in » Central government  Medium term  municipal budgets, enabling ULBs to raise municipal bonds for » State and local government  capital deficit projects  » Think tanks and foundations  » Research organizations  » Specialized finance and audit agencies  Create a knowledge hub of climate solutions to enable scaling » Government agencies  Medium term  of urban resilience solutions and catalyze private sector » Multilaterals and bilateral  investments  Build capacity of city officials to prepare capital investment » Multilaterals  Medium term  plans for cities  » State governments  Develop guidelines on inclusion of equity instruments in priority » Development finance institutions Long term  sector lending to support scale up of growth stage solutions  » Regulatory bodies such as RBI  » Financial institutions  Source: Interventions for Scaling up Climate Finance for Urban Solutions in India (2024). 147 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA ANNEX 3. CITY CHECKLIST: SUGGESTED STEPS AND PRIORITIES FOR 10 POINT CITY CLIMATE ACTION Priorities: » Immediate priority: Next 1 year » Short term: 1 to 5 years » Medium to long term: 5 to 10 years I. CITIES NEED TO ASSESS RISK AND PLAN FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE ACTIONS 1 A. Conduct and continue updating local climate and disaster risk assessment Recommended Actions Relevant Agencies Priority Climate adaptation measures need to be based on dynamic risk profiles of specific urban areas. » Undertake a quick mapping of available information and data on key hazards that ULB, UDD, SDMA Immediate priority the city is exposed to as well as climate impacts based on historical information; global, national, state risk data catalogues or sources. This should identify key risks for the city and high-risk areas and communities and made these available to public and relevant agencies. » Undertake detailed climate and disaster risk assessments, undertake sectoral or ULB, UDD, SDMA other Short-term hazard related risk mapping and modeling, make detailed risk information available relevant sectors and to public. This includes information on flooding, extreme heat and other hazards agencies that the city is exposed to. » Carry out any other other relevant assessments such as on GHG emission. » Update risk assessments regularly ULB Medium to long term Key questions to ask: Who has robust and detailed climate and disaster risk information? State and Disaster Management Agencies have disaster risk information, but is it available at a detail necessary to plan landuse and infrastructure? What financial and technical support is needed for cities to undertake and update local risk assessment? Who can help in providing technical and financial support for risk assessment? Check: Is there provision in state or local municipal acts to carry out risk assessment as a part of landuse or master plan? If not, what are the steps to update regulations and require for cities to undertake risk assessment regularly and make it available to public. Note: Relevant ministries identified in the table are not exhaustive and only indicative. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Key Acronyms: IMD: India Meteorological Department; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoRTH: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; and ULB: Urban Local Body. 148 Annexes 1B. Develop city-level integrated urban strategies and plans for adaptation, resilience and low carbon development Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority Develop city-level strategies and plans for adaptation and resilience based on risk profiles » City-level climate adaptation plans, need to be developed on the basis of risk ULB Short term assessments or profiles. These need to be prepared in coordination with landuse/ masterplan and sectoral plans » Develop local hazard specific investment plan such as for flooding: Based on risk ULB, with UDD, SDMA, information identify robust and integrated adaptation measures covering both key sectors green and gray infrastructure rather than standalone approaches » Urban heat impacts similarly need to be addressed through a heat action plan » Cities need to prioritize vulnerable neighborhoods based on risk information when implementing these measures in order to improve the resilience of areas and populations most susceptible to climate stressors. Improve adaptation through better local planning based on risk information. » Integrate climate and disaster risk information in master or land use planning ULB, with UDD, SDMA, Medium to long based on regularly updated risk maps to avoid unplanned growth and to steer urban key sectors term expansion to safer areas. » Urban resilience planning and budgeting should embed risk reduction into urban expansion projects and promote NbS, natural hydrological systems, and urban tree canopy coverage. » Updated regulations, building standards and codes need to be implemented ULBs with State help Medium term Check: Which Sectoral ministries at national and state levels have mandate to help with flood and heat resilience data and planning? Who is in charge of improving and adopting building regulations, standards and codes? How can they help cities adopt these updated regulations? Who will implement, bearing the cost of updating and implementing it? II. INVEST IN DISASTER RESILIENCE AND CLIMATE ADAPTATION, PRIORITIZING THE URBAN POOR, AND INVOLVING THE PRIVATE SECTOR 2. Develop impact based, multi-hazard and inclusive warning and response systems Relevant Bodies, Detailed Recommendations Priority Ministries and Agencies Urgent attention is needed to strengthen urban early warning and response systems to save lives and valuable assets. » For high-risk cities, improve preparedness for climate shocks by identifying ULB with NDMA, SDMA, Immediate priority high risk communities, and improving their awareness and support for taking IMD timely actions » Improve impact-based and inclusive multi-hazard warning and emergency ULB (with GoI and state Short term response systems; improving last-mile connectivity agencies responsible for flood, heat, and other multi-hazard warning) 149 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Relevant Bodies, Detailed Recommendations Priority Ministries and Agencies » Develop a well-equipped emergency response and recovery system for ULB (with GoI and state Short term disasters, and improve community preparedness. agencies responsible for disaster response » Health system and emergency response capacity: train and equip and recovery – NDMA, professionals such as ambulance and fire brigades SDMAs, district » Community preparedness: This includes: (i) understanding community governments) behavior and barriers, especially the most marginalized and vulnerable communities; (ii) involving them in identifying safe areas and shelters; (iii) developing networks of volunteers and first responders; and (iv) undertaking regular drills in high-risk areas. » Post-disaster response and recovery: have resources and mechanisms in place to support quick post-disaster response. Equip critical community resources (e.g., schools and hospitals) with stronger disaster protection and turn them into resilience hubs in times of need. Improve access to emergency or contingent budget. » Institutional strengthening: Have a dedicated local government cell with skilled staff and immediate access to emergency funds. Generally, district and local governments play key coordinating role in the warning period and after. » improve preparedness of private sector including their access to insurance Check for States and Cities: Who has the mandate of providing multi-hazard warning, preparedness and response at city level? Who can help cities improve access to actionable warning? Who can help improve preparedness and response in cities? What are the financing and technical capacity development needs? 3A. Ensure climate-sensitive urban development Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority » Regulate the supply of new urban land based on local climate and disaster ULBs, Urban Medium to long term risk profiles, and take measures to ensure risk-sensitive development with Development – masterplans access to resilient services, infrastructure and buildings. Department (UDD) MoHUA » Undertake mapping of municipal assets exposed to climate risk and develop ULBs, UDD Short term a resilience strategy » Zone land according to exposure to flooding and other hazards. ULBs, UDD Medium to long term » Ensure that new developments include provision to reduce exposure to flood ULBs, UDD Medium to long term hazard and to improve storm water management. » Adopt risk-sensitive analysis in master plans and provide building approval ULBs, UDD Medium to long term based on risk assessment and zoning. – masterplans Check: Who has the mandate of mapping land and stranded assets in city? Who can help cities zone for flooding and other hazards – i.e. who can review and revise the state and local regulations? Who can help with implementation and financing of these steps? 150 Annexes 3B. Climate-sensitive urban development: urban housing adaptation Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority Improve state and local capacity to effectively implement bylaws, policies and codes at the building level. » State and city-level technical knowledge needs to be strengthened and States, UDD and Short term continuously updated with the latest housing technologies and green design ULBs, with MoHUA innovations through capacity building and training. support » There is also a need to regularly review and update existing building codes and standards to better fit into different climate and development contexts, and to better address climate vulnerabilities identified by climate change projections. » Robust mechanisms are required to improve compliance with building bylaws, including mandatory plan compliance checks and post-construction quality checks. Check: What are the ongoing MoHUA’s initiatives and programs on resilient and green housing? What are the gaps and next steps? 3C. Climate-sensitive urban development: Road networks Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority Improve the maintenance of infrastructure assets, including drainage systems ULBs Short term and culverts. » Improve maintenance of infrastructure systems particularly the high-risk roads and drains Increase system redundancy. ULBs, with MoHUA Medium to long term » The resilience of infrastructure needs to be evaluated at the system level, not and Ministry of at the asset level. Increasing road density needs to be evaluated and planned Road Transport and thoroughly in order not to impede water drainage and the water storage capacity Highways of landscapes. Protect infrastructure assets through a combination of green (nature-based ULBs with MoHUA Medium to long term solutions) and grey infrastructure. » NbS not only provides a cost-effective way of flood protection but – in contrast to grey infrastructure solutions – comes with other community benefits such as improved water quality and habitat enhancement. Strengthen inter-agency coordination and risk-based planning » Urban transport resilience requires strong inter-agency coordination at the ULB with State Short term municipal and – in some cases – the upstream river basin level and the Ministry of » Consider hazards when planning new infrastructure investments, factoring in Road Transport and both the criticality and the exposure of the asset. Highways (MoRTH) » The impact of floods on the transport and mobility system cannot be analyzed in isolation from the conditions and challenges of that system in dry conditions. Check: What are the ongoing initiatives and programs on resilient roads? What are the gaps and next steps? 151 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA 4. LOCAL FLOOD, WATER SCARCITY AND HEAT RESILIENCE STRATEGY (IF CITY IS EXPOSED TO THESE RISKS) 4A. Local flood and water scarcity resilience strategy (if city is exposed to flooding) Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority Improve flood risk assessment and planning » Develop more detailed flood and/or water scarcity risk assessment and identify actions ULBs with State, Immediate based on preferred flood protection level and undertaking detailed flood risk modeling NDMA and SDMA priority and water scarcity risk assessment » Update flood modeling or risk assessment regularly Short term » For communities living in flood prone areas, improve preparedness to flooding through ULBs with NDMA, Immediate awareness campaign, warning and evaluation drills SDMA priority Improve local regulation and zoning to manage stormwater and related flooding » Improve or develop new regulation to control the flood flow increase due to expansion ULBs with states Short term of new urban areas Relevant ministries: » Improve zoning of areas exposed to flooding based on flood risk maps MoHUA and Ministry of Jal Shakti » Prepare and finance stormwater plans for the city in major drainage support » Create or strengthen local stormwater institution to develop, operate and maintain the stormwater infrastructure, with a revenue stream to cover the maintenance costs. Develop or strengthen local prevention actions based on risk profiles » Develop specific short-, medium-, and long-term action plans with budgets to manage ULBs with MoHUA Medium to long existing urban flood impacts and to support sustainable solutions for urban expansion term that minimize future impacts including: better management of urban wetlands or green spaces to absorb excess flood water, improved dredging and cleaning of local streams, and upstream detention areas » Develop and strengthen integrated urban watershed management and solutions ULBs with MoHUA, Medium to long including flood management and water storage capacity improvements, as applicable Ministry of Jal term Shakti Check: Who are the key national and state counterparts for the cities to work on this agenda? Who can help with financial and technical capacity building? 4.2 Develop local Heat Action Plan or heat stress resilience strategy (if city is exposed to extreme heat - see action 1) Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority Improve extreme heat risk assessment and planning » Undertake extreme heat mapping and identify communities at a high risk, ULBs, States Immediate priority improve their preparedness to heat wave including their awareness and access Relevant ministries: to cooling centers and health clinics MoHUA and Ministry of Jal Shakti support » Regularly update extreme heat mapping ULBs Short term 152 Annexes Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority Develop or strengthen Heatwave early warning » Heatwave early warning system, response and recovery system Immediate priority Prepare and implement Heat Action Plans, including following priority actions: » Improve urban greening and tree cover: provide incentives to increase roof ULBs with state and Short term top greenery; developers to develop urban parks and green spaces while MoHUA support developing new colonies » Work with high-risk businesses to take actions such as shifting working hours for laborers » Develop or strengthen local programs that provides incentives for resilient and energy efficient housing as well as cool roofs program prioritizing schools, hospitals, and other critical public buildings » Develop or strengthen local programs that support informal settlements, urban poor and recent migrants/laborers in the cities through improved warning, urban safety nets, jobs and livelihood support, improving low-income houses to include extreme heat resilience measures such reflective paint on roofs or exterior walls, access to cooling centers and drinking water, health clinics Check: Who are the key national and state counterparts for the cities to work on this agenda? Who can help with financial and technical capacity building? 5. Prioritize the Most Vulnerable Including Urban Poor Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority » Identify high-risk residents based on climate and disaster risk mapping and ULBs to work with Immediate priority prioritize for early warning and response measures State, MoHUA » Prioritize high risk and low-income neighborhoods for early warning and response ULBs to work with Immediate priority measures State, MoHUA, NDMA, SDMA IMD » Develop or strengthen local programs that support informal settlements, urban ULB with State, Short term poor and recent migrants/laborers in the cities before, during and after climate MoHUA, Ministry of and disaster shocks such as access to safety nets, food, water and other Social Justice and emergency support, post disaster recovery and rehabilitation support Empowerment » Develop or strengthen state and local programs that support recent migrants ULBs with State, Medium to long or laborers in the city with improved livelihoods, jobs, skills training, education MoHUA, Ministry of term and health, as well as access to guidance and support on specific topics such as Social Justice and finding a place a to live and work Empowerment » Adopt risk reduction measures best adapted to informal settlements, including in ULBs with State and Medium to long situ upgrades that incorporate land readjustments, infrastructure upgrading, and MoHUA term home improvements, all of which require strong community participation. The actions can focus on improving low-income houses with flood and extreme heat resilience measures as well as measures for other hazards such as earthquake or landslides (if city is exposed to that), or for pandemic and other public health hazards worsened by extreme heat or flooding 153 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority » Reserve relocation to new sites as a last resort in the highest-risk zones and apply ULBs with State and Medium to long careful due diligence MoHUA term Check: Who are the key national and state counterparts for the cities to work on this agenda? Who can help with financial and technical capacity building? 6. Facilitate the private sector’s role in risk transfer and resilience Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority Improve access to data and risk information, as well as guidance for private sector » Improve private sector’s awareness to climate and disaster risks in the city ULBs, State, MoHUA, Immediate priority through a ‘knowledge hub or risk portal’ that provides climate and disaster NDMA, SDMA Relevant risk information, best practices, and guidance ministries: Ministry of Labour & Employment and the Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship  » Support the private insurance sector through improved risk mapping and ULBs, State, MoHUA, Short term guidance NDMA, SDMA, Ministry of Skill Development and Entrepreneurship  » Engage with private sector to identify and support innovative climate MoHUA, State and UBLs Short term resilience solutions such as from technology provider of low-carbon Relevant ministries: Ministry solutions (e.g., E-Mobility, Solid Waste Management), management efficiency of Labour & Employment in construction and operations of assets, better quality provider of urban and the Ministry of services, financier, insurance provider, etc. Depending on the need of a state Skill Development and or city, innovative solutions can be developed further through ‘incubation Entrepreneurship  support’ or pilots. See Table 4.2 for details. Next steps include: pilot and test innovative business models, design and conduct training to drive more private sector investment, develop guidelines on inclusion of equity instrument in priority sectors to support scale up. Improve an ‘enabling ecosystem’ to strengthen the policy and regulatory environment for private sector » Strengthen and improve municipal credit worthiness including accounting MoHUA, State UDD, ULB, Medium to long practices and budget tagging by delivering technical and financial assistance financialiInstitutions term » Provide technical and financial assistance to improve ULB contracting MoHUA, State and local Medium to long process, climate budget tagging, accrual based accounting measures, governments term improve capacity of city officials on preparing and tracking results on capital investment plans » Develop a plan and take actions to improve municipal credit worthiness ULB wit MoHUA and State » Develop a funding strategy and mobilize finance for urban climate resilience ULB with MoHUA and State Short term actions 154 Annexes Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority » Overcome the problem of inefficient procurement processes: improve ULBs with help of State and Medium to long guidance, and contracting processes as well as ULB capacity to attract MoHUA term companies and private financiers.  » Build capacity of city officials to prepare capital investment plans, MoHUA, states, ULBs Medium to long strengthen implementation, improve monitoring and evaluation term Improve Public Private Partnerships » Undertake a deeper analysis of needs and identify innovative solutions to ULBs with MoHUA and State Medium to long improve PPP in resilient and energy efficient Water Supply, Sanitation, SWM, term green buildings, as well as in urban flooding and extreme heat resilience (such as sustainable cooling). Check: Who are the key national and state counterparts for the cities to work on this agenda? Who can help with financial and technical capacity building? III. EACH CITY NEED TO INVEST IN CLIMATE RESILIENT, EFFICIENT AND GREEN URBAN DEVELOPMENT 7. Plan for and invest in compact and green city expansion and densification Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority Indian cities will need to develop a strategy to achieve compactness and resilient growth. Cities need to better manage their expansion. This will require a spatial planning and ULBs, State and Medium to long design paradigm that facilitates increasing density in built-up areas through several MoHUA term or as a part of mechanisms: master plan » Density should be enabled through transit-oriented development. This involves the promotion of multimodal mobility through a system of public spaces, bike paths, and public transport routes. » Density should be facilitated by incentives for vertical development, using zoning and building code regulations that encourage mixed-use development and taller buildings that follow resilient building code in safe areas. » Cities could seek out opportunities for redevelopment and adaptive reuse. The streamlining of approval processes can help transform brownfield sites. » Cities could optimize land use and forbid construction in risk-prone areas in order to contain reduce exposure to hazards and emissions-intensive sprawl. » Improve provision of urban amenities: new health care, education and public amenities to maximise safety and accessibility. » Improve green public lighting: Promoting the use of LED and other energy efficiency technology for street lighting. 155 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA 8. Plan and Invest in resilient, efficient and green municipal services Detailed Recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority Enabling resilient and green critical infrastructure » Set up funding mechanism to allow capital and operational investment in critical MoHUA with states Short term infrastructure to make it resilient and energy efficient. Strengthen technical capacities for the operation and maintenance of SWM infrastructure » Support cities in creating and enhancing revenue schemes. Improve cost recovery MoHUA with states Short term from municipal services including for water, SWM, sanitation and public amenities. » Improve regulatory, policy and operational frameworks and their enforcement: MoHUA with states Medium to long (i) technical and emissions standards for disposal facilities; (ii) policies for waste term minimization and diversion from landfills; and (iii) fiscal tools that can improve cost recovery and financial predictability. » Develop a national road map with clear priorities to upgrade SWM infrastructure, MoHUA with states Medium to long based on city size and needs. The road map can include recommendations on and cities term improving: (i) regulations and institutions to promote modern treatment and disposal facilities landfill and methane capture; and (ii) building energy efficient disposal solutions that help with low carbon development. » Undertake a deeper analysis of water sector to improve energy efficiency and MoHUA with states Short term address high operational costs of sewage treatment plants (STPs), Water Management and cities Plans (WTPs) and supply systems. Identify innovative and phased out strategies for reducing Non-Revenue Water (NRW). » Undertake a deeper analysis of sewage sector to address key challenges and develop MoHUA with states Short term effective and innovative solutions including the reuse and development of supportive and cities infrastructure. SWM » Develop priority investment plans to upgrade SWM infrastructure including promoting ULBs, MoHUA, Short term public awareness States » Strengthen technical capacities for the operation of SWM infrastructure. ULBs, MoHUA, Short term States Water and Wastewater » Undertake a city level analysis of water sector to improve energy efficiency and ULBs, MoHUA, Short term address high operational costs of sewage treatment plants (STPs), Water Management States Plans (WTPs) and supply systems. Identify innovative and phased out strategies for reducing Non Revenue Water (NRW). » Undertake a city level deeper analysis of sewage sector to address key challenges ULBs, MoHUA, Short term and develop effective and innovative solutions including the reuse and development States of supportive infrastructure. » Improve water efficiency by installing water storage and water treatment systems in residential and commercial buildings. 156 Annexes 9. Invest in resilient, efficient and green public transport Detailed recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority » Transit-oriented development (TOD) and compact city concepts. Strengthen public ULB and state Medium to long transportation facilities including its electrification. with MoHUA term » Multimodal integration can help provide seamless connectivity support, Private Sector Check: Who are the key national and state counterparts for the cities to work on this agenda? Who can help with financial and technical capacity building? 10. Promote resilient and green building and housing Detailed recommendations Relevant Agencies Priority » Continue to promote installation of solar panels ULB and state with Medium to long » Green housing interventions should initially target high-income housing types, which MoHUA support, term have the highest rates of energy consumption and emissions. Private Sector » Consider applying planning regulations to promote more compact, multifamily housing development » Improve energy efficiency in residential and commercial buildings by updating appliances and promoting sustainable cooling Check: Who are the key national and state counterparts for the cities to work on this agenda? Who can help with financial and technical capacity building? 157 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA ANNEX 4. DETAILED NATIONAL AND STATE LEVEL ACTIONS, OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES Priority: » Immediate priority: Next 1 year » Short term: 1 to 5 years » Medium to long term: 5 to 10 years Note: Potential opportunities, needs and challenge as well as relevant ministries identified in the table below are exhaustive. A detailed mapping and assessment of ongoing programs and respective agencies, gaps, opportunities and barriers should be undertaken to identify concrete next steps, responsibilities and resource needs. Key Acronym: IMD: India Meteorological Department; CITIIS: Cities Investment to Innovate, Integrate and Sustain, a program under Smart Cities Mission; CPEEHO: Central Public Health and Environmental Engineering Organization; MoEFCC: Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change; MoF: Ministry of Finance; MoHA: Ministry of Home Affairs; MoHFW: Ministry of Health and family welfare; MoHUA: Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs; MoWCD: Ministry of Women and Child Development; NDMA: National Disaster Management Authority; NIUA: National Institute for Urban Affairs; SDMA: State Disaster Management Authority; TCPO: Town and Country Planning Organization; UDD: Urban Development Department; ULB: Urban Local Body I. Launch Flood and Extreme Heat Resilience Program for Indian Cities Potential Needs and Relevant Ministries Key Recommendations Potential Opportunities* Priority Challenges* and Agencies* 1. Improve the provision of robust and granular risk data for Indian Cities A. Make detailed risk data and hazard NIUA, CITIIS, NDMA, Financial and technical States, MoHUA, Immediate maps available to Indian cities - for SDMAs have risk data resources are needed NDMA and SDMA, extreme heat, flood and water scarcity atlas; CCube program to make risk data ULBs; MHA, together with other critical hazards such includes systematic available through open MoEFCC as earthquake, landslides, and sea-level assessment of cities on access platforms and rise. various dimensions of in a way useful for Identify cities and communities at a resilience; many cities cities, private sector high risk for key hazards, including have invested in data and citizens those at a high risk for flood and extreme centers and local data; heat impacts so these can be prioritized private national and and supported in various government global firms also provide programs. risk data/information 158 Annexes Potential Needs and Relevant Ministries Key Recommendations Potential Opportunities* Priority Challenges* and Agencies* B. Support high risk cities in Many cities have Need for technical MoHUA, NIUA, Short term undertaking detailed vulnerability undertaken flood and and financial capacity CITIIS, State, assessment, and updating the extreme heat risk to carry out risk ULBs, NDMA and information regularly, making it assessment, other modeling, host and SDMA available to the public i.e. undertake cities can benefit from update the data, link it risk assessment of critical infrastructure this experience. NIUA with landuse and other such as urban mobility, energy, water and CIITIS teams have planning measures. and sanitation system as well as critical developed vulnerability Capacity in small and buildings such as hospitals, schools, as assessment /modeling medium size cities is well as settlements and communities at formats. even more limited. a high risk of being affected by flood or other hazards. Provide guidance, technical and financial support to ULBs in undertaking detailed vulnerability assessment, improving identification of local projects and programs to build resilience, and in tracking progress and lessons. C. All cities up-to a certain population Availability of digital Cities who have States, UDD, ULBs, Medium to threshold and at a high-risk of flooding, technology, AI and data/ conducted risk SDMAs long term water scarcity and extreme heat control centers make it assessment can lose undertake risk assessment and update easy for cities to invest information if it is not it regularly in risk data and link sustained and updated. it with its programs Making it an important and planning. City part of master planning collect data on water, exercise / for public sanitation, landuse, will help improve cities’ etc which need to be ability to maintain and included in vulnerability update risk data assessments. 2. Strengthen Impact Based Urban Early Warning and Response Systems for High-risk Cities A. Undertake a detailed analysis India has a strong early Cities need ability to State and ULBs Immediate of challenges and opportunities in warning system at a provide “impact based with MHA, IMD, priority improving impact-based heat, flood, national, state and or actionable warning” NDMA, SDMA, water scarcity and other hazard warning district levels; many – showing where and State, District for high-risk Indian cities building on cities such as Kolkata, what extent of areas Administration lessons from ongoing initiatives in Indian Surat, Mumbai have can be flooded or can cities and future needs, and provide invested in city level be affected by extreme recommendations including for actions, early warning and heat; technical and responsibilities, and resource needs. response systems, and financial resources B. Provide technical and financial many cities are looking are needed (specially MoHUA, with MHA, Short term support to high-risk cities in to do so. for operation and IMD, NDMA, SDMA, improving impact based early warning maintenance) State, District and response system, undertaking Administration communication campaign to prepare high risk communities 159 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Potential Needs and Relevant Ministries Key Recommendations Potential Opportunities* Priority Challenges* and Agencies* 3. Launch National and State Integrated Urban Flood and Water Resilience Program A. Strengthen national, state, and local Many cities have Given potential MoHUA with State Short-term urban flood management policies and experience in urban increase in urban Urban Development action plans: integrated and multi- flood management and flooding, additional Department sectoral approaches for urban flood risk river front development efforts are needed to management, fluvial flood management, projects such as support cities. storm water management (see Box 2.4) Ahmedabad, Surat, etc. B. Support high risk cities in improving Riverfront development Financial resources MoHUA with State, Medium to flood resilience and water scarcity management company and capacity in cities UDD, NDMA, SDMA long term resilience actions based on climate Was formed in remains a main impacts and settlement growth Ahmedabad which has constrain especially pattern– see Box 2.4 for proposed actions successfully delivered in medium and small and investment needs; also see Figure 2.11 on Sabarmati riverfront size cities; leveraging for high-risk urban areas development. private sector Provide technical and financial support financing will be to cities in identifying urban flood crucial. management projects, developing terms of reference, preparing manuals, and Other barriers: supporting in management of contracts governance issues for upstream investments; C. Invest in integrated urban and multi-jurisdiction State, UDD, ULBs Medium to upstream flood management coordination and long term infrastructure at watershed level, access to land for improving multi-sectoral and multi- interventions such jurisdiction coordination as land for Nature D. Undertake local prevention actions Based Solutions or State, UDD, ULBs Short term based on flood risk modeling including embankments storm water management and regulations E. Improve water storage capacity in Improved and integrated Lack of financial State, UDD, ULBs Medium to water scarce cities: Invest in green and water management in resources and long term gray solutions for water storage cities is gaining traction technical capacity such as in Chennai. 160 Annexes Potential Needs and Relevant Ministries Key Recommendations Potential Opportunities* Priority Challenges* and Agencies* 4. Launch National and State Extreme Heat Resilience Program for Indian Cities A. Provide guidance, financial and Experience from cities Given potential MoHUA with Ministry Immediate technical support to high-risk cities such as Ahmedabad and increase in urban heat, of Health and family priority in developing Heat Action Plans and Bhuvneshwar can be additional efforts are welfare, State Urban implementation roadmap replicated; 100 HAPs are needed to support and Health depts. Identify other measures to improve already in making cities. resilience of urban infrastructure and critical buildings, support high risk Financial resources population including changes in urban and technical capacity policies, resilient infrastructure standards, in cities remain key and implications on other government constraints especially programs such as health and education in medium and small systems. size cities B. Support high risk cities in MoHUA with Short term implementing heat action plan, Ministry of including improving urban greenery, Health and family early warning and response systems, welfare, State shift in working hours and cool roof Urban and Health programs. See Table 2.2 depts. 5. Support high-risk and most vulnerable population in Indian cities Provide technical and financial support There are many safety Identifying high risk MoHUA- Affordable Short term to ULBs in helping identify and improve nets, jobs and skilling people and migrants to housing program, resilience of informal settlements and programs in India; target them in different States (urban high-risk communities including migrant many NGOs and CSOs government programs and slum labor and population before, during are also active to help remains a challenge; redevelopment and after climate and disaster shocks and support vulnerable housing for migrants agencies), such as access to health care, early communities and low-income groups Ministry of warning, safety nets, food, water and can be in high-risk Women and Child other emergency support, post disaster areas; Development recovery and rehabilitation support (WCD) 161 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA II: Ensure Resilient and Efficient Urban Development and Municipal Services 6. Strengthen Regulations, Infrastructure Standards and Integrated Planning for Compact and Resilient Urban Development A. Develop guidance and undertake policy Urban heat mapping Leadership of key MoHUA,TCPO, NIUA, Short term reforms, provide technical and financial and urban flood risk ministries and CITIIS, CPEEHO, support to ULBs to adopt and implement modeling are being states needed to State and ULBs; risk-based landuse planning, infrastructure carried out by many improve policies, relevant sectoral standards, flood and storm water Indian cities standards and ministries regulations, and building codes. This can regulations, and be based on a deep dive to identify concrete implement these. actions and responsibilities for strengthening risk-based infrastructure standards (for urban roads, municipal services) and regulations such as for storm water, and building codes to ensure resilient buildings. B. Identify actions and develop guidance Ongoing efforts to Need for guidance; Urban planning, Short term for improving multisectoral and integrated improve urban and need clarity on buildings, land, spatial and landuse planning and urban building regulations jurisdiction and stranded assets: management for multi-hazards beyond city addressing climate sectoral mandates MoHUA, TCPO, NIUA, borders. risks (see Table 2.3) CITIIS, CPEEHO, C. Enable city expansion and population State and ULBs Medium to density increase in safe areas based long term on hazard risk assessment: adopt a combination of mixed and Transit Oriented Development (TOD) based on hazard risk assessment; provide incentive for vertical development where possible and ensuring resilient buildings and infrastructure; improve access to urban amenities and parks, storm water regulation in new urban areas - such as public sport areas, parks or river front spaces (that can absorb excess flood water); improving access to resilient public transport, health and education facilities D. Support cities in mapping stranded TBC Upfront financial MoHUA, States, Medium to assets and improving their adaptation, use and technical ULBs long term and management in a resilient and sustainable resources, tools and manner. approaches 7. Resilient, Efficient and Green Municipal Services A. Develop a national road map with clear Many efforts are Financial and MoHUA, CPEEHO Short term priorities to upgrade urban mobility, SWM, underway to improve technical resources with states and water, wastewater infrastructure, based urban SWM, water and ULBs on city size and needs. The road map can waste water sectors include recommendations on improving: (i) regulations and institutions; (ii) building resilient and energy efficient solutions; and (iii) improving cost recovery and private sector engagement. 162 Annexes B. Ensure efficient water and wastewater Best practices Implementation MoHUA, CPEEHO Medium to management from many cities challenges due to with states and long term such as Delhi, limited capacity ULBs Bengaluru, Surat and and need for Thiruvananthapuram coordinated actions can be scaled up C. Improve water efficiency by installing Many efforts and knowledge on MoHUA, CPEEHO Medium to energy efficient water storage and water examples on urban new technologies, with states and long term treatment systems in residential and design, energy and private sector ULBs commercial buildings material efficiency in participation buildings exist D. Develop a road map with clear priorities Policies and practices Financial and MoHUA, CPEEHO Short term and timeline (see Table 3.4) to improve based on Indore and technical resources with states and solid waste management – diverting Thiruvananthapuram ULBs waste from landfill and dumping. Improve can be encouraged regulations and enforce provision of SWM services, build sustainable disposable solutions (that improves efficiency and reduce emissions), improve funding mechanisms to allow capital and operational investment in critical infrastructure, raise public awareness and support 8. Resilient, efficient and green buildings and housing A. Improve the policy and regulatory India’s National Mission Trade-off with MoHUA, CPEEHO Short term framework in the housing sector on on Sustainable Habitat construction with states and integrating climate resilience and energy include climate costs and housing ULBs efficiency actions actions (largely on affordability energy efficiency and Financial resources mitigation). and capacity in Several policies and cities and states building codes available at building level, state and community level initiatives B. Improve state and local capacity to Technological Implementation MoHUA, CPEEHO Medium to effectively implement bylaws, policies and innovation in challenges due to with states and long term codes at building level green housing limited capacity ULBs planning, design and and coordinated construction can help. actions, knowledge on green and resilient designs and technologies 163 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA C. Raise awareness and provide training Private sector, Knowledge gap MoHUA, CPEEHO Short term and incentives for private sector in real technical and research among in housing with states and estate industry and users of housing: Engage institutions have the sector ULBs technical institutions, research institutions potential to further help and professionals to provide training; with green and resilient monetary and non-monetary incentives housing. can be explored to improve private sector participation and offset initial cost of adaptation. D. Improve energy efficiency in residential Private sector, Financial and MoHUA, CPEEHO Short term and commercial buildings by updating technical and research Technical support with states and appliances, supporting solar panels on institutions have the needed for cities ULBs roof-tops, energy efficient housing retrofit or potential to further help new construction; support up-front cost for economically weaker section and low-income groups (LIG) E. Improve planning regulations to Short term promote compact, multi-family housing development through high-density housing development 9. Resilient, Efficient and Green Urban Infrastructure and Public Transport A. Improve the maintenance of The relevant ministries Lack of visibility MoHUA, Short term infrastructure assets including roads, and state departments compared to new State (Urban drainage system and culverts. Improve asset are focusing on road construction, Development management system with exposure, current enhancing the quality and limited budget and Transport condition and other maintenance information of construction and for maintenance Departments), the maintenance of ULBs road assets B. Increase infrastructure system resilience TBC Limited or no MoHUA, Medium to (beyond the focus on the asset focus on budget for risk State (Urban long term the whole road network to identify critical assessment and Development roads); identify critical assets in key systems planning; lack of and Transport and assess their risk exposure. Create and risk data; challenges Departments), enforce risk-informed infrastructure system in implementing. ULBs, Railways masterplan. C. Increase resilient and energy efficient Many cities have taken Trade-off with MoHUA, Medium to resilient public transport network: efforts to improve upfront cost of State (Urban long term improve its electrification and make all new electrification of buses; infrastructure; cost Development infrastructure investment adapted to future development of new of enforcement and Transport risk: Improve regulations and standards to metros of construction Departments), ensure all new investments need to account standards ULBs, Railways for future risks and criticality through green and grey infrastructure; consider hazards and integrate hazard maps when planning new investment 164 Annexes D. Promote solar and energy efficient Many cities have Trade-off with MoHUA, Short term streetlights already undertaken upfront cost State (Urban actions on solar Development and energy efficient and Transport streetlights Departments), ULBs 10. Strengthen Municipal Capacity for Resilient Urban Development Improve the number, training, guidance and High-Level Committee Limited number MoHUA; State, Medium to skills of municipal staff working on resilient on Urban Planning and skills of ULBs, think long term and green urban development. has provided urban planners on tanks and urban Empower ULBs to undertake risk based recommendations to resilient planning institutions planning and urban development. improve number and and development, skills of urban planners limited in India empowerment of ULBs III. Develop a Funding and Financing Strategy, Implementation Roadmap to achieve Urban Resilience Relevant ministries and Key Recommendations Priority agencies 11. Improve ULBs’ access to finance and funding for urban resilience A. Develop a climate financing and funding roadmap: To meet huge financing needs MoHUA, Ministry of Finance, Immediate (identified in chapter 4), develop a deep dive identifying potential sources of financing States, ULBs priority and funding needs including budgets, market-based financing, carbon market revenues and private investments. Key actions include (see Box 4.4): » Explore the potential for urban resilience linked fiscal transfers to ULBs » Identify different sources of funding that can be generated including land value capture, TIFs, redirection of fossil fuel subsidies, commercial revenues, carbon markets, etc. maximizing innovative ways to raising revenues and incomes to repay the large amount of investments needs » Identify the needs and actions to build local capital markets: Since current capital market and/or banking market is not deep enough to meet high urban infrastructure needs » Access to climate finance from multilateral and bilateral development partners and climate funds can be explored. They can support early-stage pilots, bring global experiences, provide risk mitigation products for private sector and build institutional capacity. » Identify gaps in ULB capacity and propose action plan to support them B. Provide technical and financial support to ULBs: Improve their awareness of MoHUA, States Short term financing sources, technical capacity and expertise as well as support for implementing bankable projects, complex PPPs, engaging with private sector such as providing credit enhancement support through guarantees, etc. C. Identify actions to improve ULBs’ cashflow generation / Own Source Revenues MoHUA, States, ULBs Short term from underlying investments and services. Without this, attracting private capital and investments (PPPs, etc.) are difficult to attract. 165 TOWARDS RESILIENT AND PROSPEROUS CITIES IN INDIA Relevant ministries and Key Recommendations Priority agencies D. Improve cost recovery and financial sustainability of municipal services: MoHUA, States, ULBs improve municipal revenue and cost recovery from water and waste water, urban roads, sanitation, solid waste management. 12. Improve Private sector Engagement in Urban Resilience A. Identify policy and regulatory barriers and take actions to improve private MoHUA, Ministry of Finance, Short term sector engagement in urban resilience solution (see section 4.3 and annex 2 for States  details). Provide information and engage with private sector to identify and support innovative climate resilience solutions. B. Build capacity of city officials to prepare capital investment plans, strengthen MoHUA, State, ULBs Short term implementation, improve monitoring and evaluation C. Undertake a deeper analysis of needs and identify innovative solutions and MoHUA , States, ULBs Short term guidance to improve PPP in resilient and energy efficient Water Supply, Sanitation, SWM, green buildings, as well as in urban flooding and extreme heat resilience (such as sustainable cooling). D. Strengthen and improve municipal credit worthiness including accounting MoHUA, State, ULBs Medium practices and budget tagging by delivering technical and financial assistance term E. Provide technical and financial assistance to improve ULB contracting process, MoHUA, State, ULBs Medium climate budget tagging, accrual-based accounting measures, improve capacity of term city officials on preparing and tracking results on capital investment plans F. Strengthening PPP procurement processes: improve guidance, and contracting MoHUA, State, ULBs Medium processes as well as ULB capacity to attract companies and private financiers.  term 166