Mobility and Transport Connectivity Series Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in The Caribbean Report prepared by: Latin America and the Caribbean Transport Unit, The World Bank CARIBBEAN REGIONAL RESILIENCE BUILDING FACILITY Mobility and Transport Connectivity Series Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in The Caribbean Report prepared by: Latin America and the Caribbean Transport Unit, The World Bank CARIBBEAN REGIONAL RESILIENCE BUILDING FACILITY Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean iv Contents Acknowledgments�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������v Abbreviations and Acronyms.........................................................................................................................vi Executive Summary.......................................................................................................................................viii Chapter 1: Regional Air Transport Context.................................................................................................. 1 Chapter 2: Project Background...................................................................................................................... 5 Chapter 3: Objectives And Approach.............................................................................................................7 3.1. Study Objectives...............................................................................................................................................8 3.2. General Approach.............................................................................................................................................8 3.3. Three-Step Work Process..............................................................................................................................9 3.4. Key Concepts..................................................................................................................................................10 Chapter 4: A Holistic Approach To Resilience............................................................................................12 4.1. Potential Threats to Air Transport............................................................................................................. 13 4.2. Factors for Achieving Resilience................................................................................................................. 15 Chapter 5: Common Resilience Themes for Airports................................................................................17 5.1. Typical Resilience Gaps................................................................................................................................. 18 5.2. Typical Resilience Solutions........................................................................................................................ 19 5.3. Common Themes For Caribbean Airports................................................................................................ 19 Chapter 6: Grenada Assessment..................................................................................................................21 6.1. Country And Sector Context........................................................................................................................22 6.2. Air Transport Sector Resilience Assessment—Grenada..................................................................... 28 Chapter 7: Saint Lucia Assessment............................................................................................................ 36 7.1. Country And Sector Context........................................................................................................................37 7.2. Air Transport Sector Resilience Assessment—Saint Lucia..................................................................42 Chapter 8: Haiti Assessment....................................................................................................................... 49 8.1. Country and Sector Context....................................................................................................................... 50 8.2. Air Transport Sector Resilience Assessment—Haiti............................................................................ 58 References������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 67 Image credit��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 69 Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean v List of Figures Figure 1.1. Map of the Caribbean............................................................................................................................ 2 Figure 1.2. Members of Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS)as of 2020............................ 4 Beneficiary Countries of the Caribbean Regional Resilience Building Facility Figure 2.1.  (the Facility)............................................................................................................................................6 Figure 3.1. Three-step Process to Assess Air Transport Resilience...............................................................9 Figure 6.1. Country of Grenada: Airports...........................................................................................................24 Figure 6.2. Aerial View of MBIA............................................................................................................................ 25 Figure 6.3. ICAO Aerodrome Chart for MBIA.................................................................................................... 25 Figure 6.4. CATCOP Improvements at MBIA.....................................................................................................27 Figure 6.5. Threat Risk Matrix – Grenada......................................................................................................... 28 Aviation Sector Strategic Plan including Resilience Enhancement Figure 6.6.  Implementation Plan, Grenada........................................................................................................ 34 Figure 7.1. Country of Saint Lucia and its Airports......................................................................................... 38 Figure 7.2. Existing HIA Layout............................................................................................................................ 39 Figure 7.3. Current ICAO Aerodrome Chart for HIA........................................................................................ 39 Figure 7.4. HIA Development Projects (Ongoing, Planned, and Potential).................................................. 41 Figure 7.5. Threat Risk Matrix, Saint Lucia........................................................................................................42 Aviation Sector Strategic Plan, including Resilience Enhancement Figure 7.6.  Implementation Plan, Saint Lucia....................................................................................................47 Figure 8.1. Map of Natural Disaster Threats in Haiti...................................................................................... 50 Figure 8.2. Map of Haiti.......................................................................................................................................... 52 Figure 8.3. Haiti’s Airports������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������53 Figure 8.4. Port-au-Prince Toussaint Louverture – Passenger Traffic������������������������������������������������������54 Figure 8.5. Effective Implementation of ICAO SARPs for Select Countries vs Global Average������������55 Figure 8.6. PAP: Conceptual Illustration of CATCOP Airfield Safety and Capacity Investments��������57 Figure 8.7. CAP: Conceptual Illustration of CATCOP Airfield Safety and Capacity Investments��������57 Figure 8.8. Threat Risk Matrix – Haiti����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������58 Aviation Sector Strategic Plan including Resilience Enhancement Figure 8.9.  Implementation Plan – Haiti�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������65 Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean vi List of Tables Table 4.1. Potential Threats to the Air Transport System�������������������������������������������������������������������������� 13 Table 4.2. Comparison of Threat Risk Rating among Select Countries���������������������������������������������������� 14 Table 4.3. Factors that Must be Addressed to Achieve Air Transport Resilience����������������������������������� 15 Table 5.1. Air Transport Resilience: Common Themes across the Caribbean Region���������������������������20 Table 6.1. Critical Resilience Gaps Associated with Key Threats���������������������������������������������������������������29 Table 6.2. Solutions: Short Term and Medium Term�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������32 Table 7.1. Critical Resilience Gaps Associated with Key Threats���������������������������������������������������������������43 Table 7.2. Priority Solutions: Short Term and Medium Term����������������������������������������������������������������������45 Table 8.1. Critical Resilience Gaps Associated with Key Threats���������������������������������������������������������������59 Table 8.2. Priority Solutions: Short Term and Medium Term����������������������������������������������������������������������62 List of Images Image 6.1. Maurice Bishop International Airport, Grenada��������������������������������������������������������������������������� 31 Image 7.1. Hewanorra International Airport, Vieux Fort Quarter, Saint Lucia����������������������������������������40 Image 7.2. Saint Lucia tropical island - Caribbean sea - Castries harbor, airplane and airport����������44 Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean vii Acknowledgments This report was developed by a team comprising Xavier Espinet Alegre, Transport Economist; Mark Lunsford, Air Transport Consultant; and Mohammad Dehghani, DRM Consultant. They were ably supported by Malaika Becoulet, Senior Transport Specialist; Fabian Hinojosa Couleau, Senior Transport Specialist; Tatsuo Harada, Senior Transport Specialist; Vickram Cuttaree, Lead Infrastructure Specialist; Ibrahim Savadogo, Transport Consultant; Claudia Ann-Sylvia Tassy, Consultant; and received administrative support from Angela Dengo and Licette Moncayo. The report was edited and designed by RRD Go Creative APAC with Jonathan Davidar, senior knowledge management, leading the creative direction and editing production. This report was made possible through financial support from a broader study grant funded by the Caribbean Regional Resilience Building Facility, which is a collaborative initiative among the European Union (EU), the World Bank Group (WBG), and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). It was established in 2019 as a response to the devastation caused by Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. Importantly, the report was developed with the support of, and in consultation with: • The Grenada Airports Authority (GAA) • The Grenada Ministry of Civil Aviation • Other representatives of the Government of Grenada (GoG) • The Haitian National Civil Aviation Authority (Office National de l’Aviation Civile [OFNAC]) • The Haitian National Airport Authority (Autorite Aéroportuaire National [AAN]) • The Haitian Central Executive Unit (Unité Centrale d’Exécution [UCE]) • Other representatives of the Government of Haiti (GoH) • The Saint Lucia Air and Sea Ports Authority (SLASPA) • Other representatives of the Government of Saint Lucia (GoSL) The team would like to acknowledge the timely and valuable support, guidance and advice received from Lilia Burunciuc, County Director for the Caribbean, Laurent Msellati, Country Manager for Haiti, Nicolas Peltier-Thiberge, Global Director for Transport, Marcela Silva, LCR Regional Director for Infrastructure, Bianca Bianchi, Transport Manager for Latin America and the Caribbean, Frederic Verdol, Program Leader for the Caribbean. The guidance note benefitted from the peer- review comments from Satoshi Ogita, Senior Transport Specialist, Chris De Serio, Senior Transport Specialist, and Frederico Pedroso, Disaster Risk Management Specialist. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean viii Abbreviations and Acronyms AAN Haitian National Airport Authority (Autorite Aéroportuaire National) ADS-B Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast ARRUR Airport Runway and Road Upgrade and Rehabilitation Project (Maurice Bishop International Airport, Grenada) ASSP Aviation Sector Strategic Plan ATC Air Traffic Control ATCT Air Traffic Control Tower CAP Cap Haïtien International Airport (Haiti) Capex Capital Expenditure CARICOM Caribbean Community CATCOP Caribbean Regional Air Transport Connectivity Project CERC Contingent Emergency Response Component CFR Crash Fire Rescue CRI Climate Risk Index EBITDA Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization ECCAA Eastern Caribbean Civil Aviation Authority DRS Disaster Resilience Strategy eurodad European Network on Debt and Development FAA U.S. Federal Aviation Administration GAA Grenada Airports Authority GDP Gross Domestic Product GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GFLCA George F.L. Charles Airport (Saint Lucia) GHG Green House Gas GoG Government of Grenada GoH Government of Haiti GoSL Government of Saint Lucia HDI Human Development Index HIA Hewanorra International Airport (Saint Lucia) HIARP Hewanorra International Airport Redevelopment Project IADP Inter-American Development Bank IASA International Aviation Safety Assessment IATA International Air Transport Association Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean ix ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization IDA International Development Association ILS Instrument Landing System IMF International Monetary Fund Kg Kilograms MBIA Maurice Bishop International Airport (Grenada) MOF Ministry of Finance MoU Memorandum of Understanding MOTCA Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation MTPTC Ministry of Public Works, Transport and Communications (Ministère de Travaux Publics, Transport et Communications) NAP National Aviation Policy NEMO National Emergency Management Organization OECS Organization of Eastern Caribbean States OFNAC National Office of Civil Aviation (Office National de l’Aviation Civile) Opex Operating Expenditure PAP Toussaint Louverture International Airport (Port-au-Prince, Haiti) REIP Resilience Enhancement Implementation Plan RESA Runway End Safety Area ROI Return on Investment ROT Runaway Occupancy Time SARPs Standards and Recommended Practices (ICAO) SDFRP Sea Defense and Flooding Resilience Plan SIDS Small Island Developing States SLASPA Saint Lucia Air and Sea Ports Authority The Facility Caribbean Regional Resilience Building Facility UCE Haitian Central Executive (Unit Unité Centrale d’Exécution) USOAP Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme VEPP Volcanic Eruption Preparation Plan WBG World Bank Group ES Executive Summary Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean xi The lack of land connectivity among the Caribbean Island nations and the growing significance of the tourism sector as a key economic pillar have underscored the importance of improved air connectivity for economic growth and shared prosperity in the region. On average, tourism’s contribution to the gross domestic product (GDP) for the region rose from 12 percent in 2011 to 15.2 percent in 2017, accounting for 4.3 percent of the jobs (CIA, The World FactBook). Almost half these contributions can be traced to capital investments in the travel and tourism industry, while one-third is linked to tourism-related service industries. Overall, Caribbean origin and destination air passenger traffic grew by 50 percent between 2007 and 2017, from approximately 40 million to nearly 60 million passengers annually. However, intra-regional passenger traffic remained flat and declined in some countries, including in Grenada, Dominica, and Saint Lucia. While post-2017 region- wide data is limited, evidence indicates that these trends persist. The insularity and geographic location of the islands, combined with the effects of climate change, pose significant challenges to air transport connectivity and resilience due to heightened exposure to natural hazards. Past extreme weather events and other natural disasters in the Caribbean Sea region1 (for example, hurricanes, flooding, earthquakes, landslides, and volcanic eruptions) have exposed the region’s vulnerability due to the lack of resilient infrastructure capable of delivering essential services even when affected by natural disasters. For example, in 2010, a major earthquake struck Haiti, resulting in the loss of more than 200,000 lives and severely damaging infrastructure across the Port-au-Prince region. In 2015, Tropical Storm Erika crippled Dominica’s main airport with severe flooding. A full shutdown lasted for several weeks, with operational limitations extending for many subsequent months. In September 2017, Category 5 Hurricane Irma and Category 4 Hurricane Maria wreaked havoc across the Caribbean, inflicting over $100 million in damage to Princess Juliana International Airport on the island of Sint Maarten. The storms severely damaged the airport’s passenger terminal building, leaving it unusable due to wind damage, flooding, and extensive mold damage throughout the structure. The runway was also temporarily closed. Hurricane Maria also damaged and flooded several major airports in Puerto Rico, while in 2019, Hurricane Dorian dealt a harsh blow to Bahamas airports. More recently, in 2021, a volcanic eruption in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines caused significant disruptions to airport operations not only on the island of Saint Vincent, but also in nearby Barbados and Saint Lucia, due to the ash carried by wind currents. All these climate and natural hazards have further demonstrated the criticality of climate/disaster resilient transportation systems, especially air transport, to provide immediate humanitarian response in post-disaster scenarios and aid speedy economic recovery. Caribbean islands face similar yet significant air connectivity and resilience challenges. Caribbean airports are strategic assets due to the importance of tourism, but they tend to be insufficiently funded, resulting in sub-par safety compliance and inadequate preparedness for natural disasters. Achieving strong financial performance to meet needed investments is particularly challenging for small island developing states (SIDS). The challenges include: • airport revenues constrained by relatively low air traffic volumes and airport charges • the high cost of building and properly operating, maintaining, and regulating airport infrastructure suitable for commercial international passenger flights https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/sites/www.humanitarianresponse.info/files/documents/files/20191203-ocha-desastres_   1 naturales.pdf. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean xii Further, these airports are often located near the sea, exposing them to heightened flooding risks and longer-term challenges associated with rising sea levels. As such, Caribbean airports, especially those in low-income countries and/or SIDS, typically have significant investment needs such as International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)-related safety compliance, connectivity-enabling enhancements, and climate/disaster resilience. These needs often exceed their limited fiscal and human capital resources. To address these challenges, Caribbean air transport authorities should follow a holistic approach to resilience building and climate adaptation, moving beyond merely defining infrastructure needs and seeking funding. Identifying infrastructure needs is perhaps the most straightforward aspect of meeting the resilience challenge for air transport. The more complex tasks involve implementing sector governance and management reforms, as well as establishing effective coordination with external agencies (outside of air transport) and regional organizations. Such a collaboration is vital to successfully implement a comprehensive program of air transport sector resilience enhancements over the long term. The most important step is creating high-performance air transport governance and management organizations with a holistic resilience mindset. This is particularly crucial for SIDS and low-income countries with limited aviation revenues and economic means, as they must adhere to the same high standards for aviation safety and capacity, despite disparities in financial capacity. To achieve air transport resilience, authorities must holistically address a range of factors including: • policy • infrastructure and systems • management, organization, and operations • financial resources • governance • health of the air service market • coordination with external agencies and regional organizations While the specifics would vary by country and airport, a holistic resilience approach would include: • Making the essential and urgent resilience investments in infrastructure and systems and preparing for improved emergency management and recovery. Ensure immediate and optimal improvements to critical infrastructure and systems based on clear and compelling needs identified in previous studies. Additionally, have in place updated emergency operations plans for known major threats (for example, hurricanes) including staff roles/responsibilities, protection programs for vital equipment, and coordination protocols with other agencies, airlines, and surrounding communities. • Improving investment identification and prioritization, with full consideration of the cost of risk. Update the National Aviation Policy (NAP) to embed resilience as a core principle. Additionally, develop an Aviation Sector Strategic Plan (ASSP) that considers the full range of aviation sector needs and opportunities, including those associated with resilience enhancement, to establish a prioritized program of investments. Create a comprehensive strategic planning process that examines competing investment initiatives and organizational/policy changes, including an assessment of costs, benefits, environmental impacts, socio-economic impacts, and financial feasibility. This is a critical step because every country has many desired investments, some Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean xiii of them expensive, but are challenged by limited funding and a lack of consensus on priorities. Conduct the necessary supporting studies, audits, and other analyses to fully define gaps, needs, and opportunities (for example, sea defense studies for airports located adjacent to the sea). • Optimizing the financial performance of the aviation sector. As part of the strategic planning exercise, prepare an aviation sector business plan outlining concrete measures to enhance and diversify revenues, control costs, build financial reserves, and leverage all appropriate funding and financing mechanisms. • Creating a high-performance airport management organization with resilience embedded in its mission. As part of the strategic planning exercise, develop an organizational transformation strategy for the airport operator to: • embed resilience in its mission, priorities, structures, and processes • achieve the required improvements to the financial and operational performance of the sector • Improving safety oversight and economic regulation of the sector. Develop a comprehensive plan in coordination with the safety regulator, the Eastern Caribbean Civil Aviation Authority (ECCAA) for Grenada and Saint Lucia and Office National de l’Aviation Civile (OFNAC) for Haiti. This will help address safety concerns identified through the ICAO, U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and ECCAA/national audit programs, as well as achieve full aerodrome certification for international airports. Collaborate with the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and other regional institutions to promote economic liberalization of air services. Ensure aeronautical revenues are used solely for the benefit of the aviation sector. • Preparing and implementing a Resilience Enhancement Implementation Plan (REIP). Establish a comprehensive and realistic roadmap for implementing the full range of resilience enhancements across the air transport sector, as identified through the strategic planning exercise and other associated studies and analyses. This plan should cover infrastructure, systems, operations, funding/financing, regulation, and organization. Ensure appropriate engagement and coordination with external agencies and regional organizations in the development of the REIP. The REIP effectively becomes the implementation guide for each resilience enhancement activity established in the ASSP. Many findings of this study are likely relevant to SIDS both within and beyond the Caribbean. Considering the similar profiles of these economies and their air transport challenges and opportunities, the threats, gaps, and solutions identified in this study can provide valuable insights to other SIDS as they develop their own air transport resilience plans Boosting Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean Main Challenges Caribbean airports which are key to driving tourism frequently face these challenges: Limited airport revenues High expenses to maintain Vulnerability to flooding due to low air traffic airports at international and rising sea levels standards Perform Systematic Operations Align Policy Framework and Maintenance Invest in High-Performance Optimize Financial Performance Governance and Management and Management Organizations Steps to unlock Upgrade Infrastructure air transport resilience Create a Healthy and Systems in the Caribbean Air Service Market Streamline Coordination with Develop Risk Analysis and External Agencies and Regional Contingency Planning Organizations Country Key Risk Perception Risk Perception Haiti Grenada Saint Lucia Hurricane High 4.3 High 4.2 Very High 4.5 Economic Downturn High 3.5 High 3.8 High 4.3 Civil Unrest Medium 2.9 Medium 2.7 Very High 5 Endnot The insights from this study; “Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean” are relevant for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) worldwide. These findings, addressing common economic profiles and air transport challenges, can inform global resilience plans for SIDS' air transport systems Chapter 1 Regional Air Transport Context Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 2 The Caribbean region (figure 1.1) has made progress in reducing poverty but continues to grapple with several key economic challenges, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and a heavy reliance on tourism in many countries. Furthermore, agricultural output in the region has declined in recent decades due to competitive pressures from larger nations and the devastating impact of frequent natural disasters on crop yields. For smaller nations such as Grenada and Saint Lucia, this has resulted in a significantly higher emphasis on tourism, private educational services, and the development of niche agricultural exports for achieving economic goals. All these endeavors are heavily dependent on air transport infrastructure and services. For Haiti, economic progress has been challenging due to chronic political instability, civil unrest, gang violence, and globally, is among the countries with the highest exposure to multiple natural hazards. Figure 1.1. Map of the Caribbean Source: ALG. Caribbean islands face significant common challenges in enhancing air connectivity and resilience. The importance of tourism to their economic wellbeing makes their airports critical, but insufficient funding often results in relatively poor safety and operational performance and inadequate preparedness for natural disasters. Their geographic location near the sea and low elevations leave them vulnerable to extreme weather events and the longer-term risks associated with rising sea levels. Further, achieving strong financial performance to support the necessary investments is especially challenging for smaller nations, as: • Airport revenues are constrained by relatively low air traffic volumes and market constraints on airport charges, including landing fees and passenger charges. • Building and properly operating, maintaining, and regulating airport infrastructure suitable for regular commercial international passenger flights is expensive. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 3 As such, Caribbean airports typically require substantial investments in ICAO-related safety compliance, connectivity-enabling enhancements, and climate/disaster resilience, which exceed their available fiscal and human capital resources. While the overall Caribbean extra-regional air connectivity had improved in the years leading up to the pandemic, intra-regional connectivity had lagged. Air travel in the Caribbean is notably characterized by limited flight options, frequent delays, and cancellations. Investments have predominantly favored extra-regional air connectivity (long-haul passenger service) over intra- regional air connectivity (short-haul service between islands). This focus on long-haul service has led to higher capital costs and airport charges, weakening the relative position of regional airlines, which are more sensitive to the region’s airport charges and operational disruptions. Overall, Caribbean air passenger traffic grew 50 percent between 2007 and 2017, from approximately 40 million to almost 60 million annually; however, intra-regional passenger traffic stagnated and even declined in countries such as Grenada, Dominica, and Saint Lucia. Although post-2017 region-wide data is limited, evidence indicates that these trends persist. An important reason for low intra-regional connectivity has been the high risk of operational disruptions experienced by Caribbean airlines that focus on intra-regional routes. With respect to day-to-day operations, decisions to delay, divert, or cancel flights are more likely in an environment with relatively less sophisticated aircraft navigational aids and inadequate investment in operational safety. For example, the absence of a precision approach instrument landing system (ILS) at an airport experiencing adverse weather might lead an airline to delay or cancel flights due to safety concerns. Such decisions can have cascading effects for subsequent flights, leading to broader disruptions and economic or financial repercussions for the travelers, airline, and affected countries. With respect to climate/disaster resilience, Caribbean airlines with a focus on intra-regional operations face a higher risk of long-term disruptions to airports in their operating networks. Losing passenger traffic and associated revenue from a country for an extended period, as occurred in Dominica following Tropical Storm Erika in 2015, can be financially disruptive to an airline, weakening its financial health and ability to provide strong intra-regional connectivity. Figure 1.2 depicts the various member states of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS). Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 4 Figure 1.2. Members of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) as of 2020 Source: OECS. Chapter 2 Project Background Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 6 This report presents the findings of a study evaluating the ways to enhance the resilience of the air transport sector in Grenada, Saint Lucia, and Haiti, with emphasis on their critical aviation assets. The airports studied are: • Grenada: Maurice Bishop International Airport (MBIA) • Saint Lucia: Hewanorra International Airport (HIA) • Haiti: Toussaint Louverture International Airport (PAP) and Cap Haïtien International Airport (CAP) This report is part of a larger study funded by a grant from the Caribbean Regional Resilience Building Facility (the Facility). Launched in 2019 in the aftermath of the 2017 hurricanes, Irma and Maria, this initiative is a collaboration among the European Union (EU), the World Bank Group (WBG), and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). The objective of the Facility is to enhance long-term resilience and adaptation capacity in the Caribbean region, particularly for the most vulnerable countries. The beneficiary countries (figure 2.1) include Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. Figure 2.1. Beneficiary Countries of the Caribbean Regional Resilience Building Facility (the Facility) Source: Caribbean Regional Resilience Building Facility. The goal of the broader study is to identify strategies for enhancing the resilience of the air transport sector of the countries participating in the Caribbean Regional Air Transport Connectivity Project (CATCOP)2 and more broadly, the Caribbean region, and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in other parts of the world. The study seeks to achieve this by identifying relevant best practices and systems, with emphasis on airports. The study is expected to support and complement key activities of CATCOP, especially those related to strategic planning, institutional strengthening, and capacity building. 2 The CATCOP is a regional series of projects financed by the World Bank currently, involving Grenada, Haiti, and Saint Lucia. CATCOP   aims to enhance regional connectivity by improving the safety of air transport and the resilience of airport infrastructure to natural disasters. It was approved for a total of US$159 million by the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors in May 2020 Chapter 3 Objectives and Approach Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 8 3.1. Study Objectives The execution of this study was entrusted to a World Bank Group (WBG) team with expertise in airports, civil aviation, infrastructure vulnerability, and climate change. The objectives of the study were to: • gain a better understanding of the most significant gaps in the resilience of the air transport sector in the Caribbean Regional Air Transport Connectivity Project (CATCOP) countries, namely, Grenada, Haiti, and Saint Lucia. The focus was on determining the most appropriate solutions, with a focus on airports • assist the governments of CATCOP countries in progressively and sustainably addressing these gaps • provide input to ongoing and yet-to-be-defined CATCOP activities. The latter encompasses supporting the tailoring of work scopes for design and construction activities and defining relevant institutional capacity building initiatives that can be funded as part of CATCOP • publish materials summarizing key findings and best practices for the broader benefit of the Caribbean region and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in other parts of the world 3.2. General Approach To ensure a comprehensive approach, a collaborative, workshop-driven methodology was adopted. This method involved engaging a diverse group of in-country air transport professionals to harness their local knowledge and expertise and ensure the study findings, recommendations, and capacity- building activities for each CATCOP country were contextually relevant. Although each study was conducted independently, they followed a similar approach and enabled the sharing of lessons across the endeavor. A primarily airport perspective was taken in each study, given airports are the elements of an air transport system that are the costliest, most complex, and most vulnerable. Further, each government bears full and clear responsibility for its own airport infrastructure and operations whereas responsibility for other elements of the air transport system is often mixed (for example, bilateral air service agreements, airline market conditions, enroute navigational systems and procedures, and safety regulation). Further, the study took a holistic perspective on threats, gaps, and solutions, beyond the traditional focus on climate change, extreme weather, natural disasters, and the associated infrastructure investments requirements. Considering the complexity of an air transport system, achieving resilience also requires accounting for risks related to: • health, safety, and security • geopolitical and socio-economic instability • technological disruption • competitive disruption • market instability • financial capacity Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 9 The study evaluated an array of threats to air transport and the associated gaps and solutions, including those related to infrastructure, operations, financial management, governance, and coordination with other agencies and regional organizations. 3.3. Three-step Work Process To assess air transport resilience in each country, a three-step process (figure 3.1) was followed: • Step 1: Understand and characterize the key threats to air transport, including the key potential disruptive events or trends and their likelihood and potential magnitude of impact • Step 2: Identify the relevant resilience gaps, including the key gaps in the current readiness of infrastructure, systems, organizations, and regulations with respect to coping with and recovering quickly from identified key potential disruptive events or trends • Step 3: Identify appropriate solutions, including methods to close key resilience gaps through investments in robustness and/or redundancy, as appropriate Figure 3.1. Three-step Process to Assess Air Transport Resilience • Identify the most important potential disruptive events or trends for the air transport sector Threats • Characterize their potential timing and impacts on the sector, including consequences for facilities, operations, finances, the economy, and more • Identify critical gaps in the current readiness of the air transport sector, with a focus on airport assets Gaps • Consider gaps relevant to both “coping with” and “recovering quickly from” a disruptive event or trend • Identify appropriate solutions for closing key resilience gaps, including investing in robustness, redundancy, and resourcefulness Solutions • Identify the solutions that have the greatest potential to benefit the air transport sector Source: World Bank. This three-step process was implemented through a process of collaborative workshops and online surveys involving a diverse group of government representatives in each country. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 10 3.4. Key Concepts Resiliency For purposes of this study resiliency is defined as “the ability of the system to cope with a disruptive event or trend and restore or maintain its original functionality in a timely manner.” Key elements determining resiliency are system strength (robustness), resource availability (resourcefulness), time to recover (rapidity), and availability of backups system or subsystems, (redundancy) (Tierney and Bruneau, 2007). Reliability Reliability is defined as “the ability of a system or component to function under stated conditions for a specified period of time”( Ross, Pillitteri, Graubart, Bodeau, and Mcquaid, 2021IEEE, 1990). While resiliency and reliability are interrelated, this study differentiates between the two concepts as follows: • Reliability pertains to consistent performance, typically under normal conditions, while resiliency pertains to the ability to bounce back in a timely manner after a shock. Reliability is one of the ultimate goals of a system. • However, disruptions are inevitable in reality, and to enhance reliability, it becomes necessary for the system to exhibit the resilience to cope with disruptions and recover quickly. Resilience is a characteristic of the system that enables reliability. Reliability and resiliency in the context of air transport: • Reliability in the air transport system implies smooth operations and punctual flights, supported by infrastructure such as the navigation system, structures, and aircraft that perform consistently well to generate sustainable and consistent revenue. Operational and financial reliability is the ultimate goal of the aviation system. • Yet, real-world factors such as meteorological conditions can impede airline operations and affect their “reliability.” If the system has some level of “resiliency,” such as permeable runways (robustness), navigation systems and instruments for foggy or rainy weather (resourcefulness), and backup power generations in case of an outage (redundancy), it can perform with minimal disruptions, demonstrating maximum reliability. Achieving 100 percent reliability is impractical, but maximizing reliability is possible. Lifecycle Pillars The World Bank introduced five pillars within the infrastructure lifecycle: • Systems Planning: Activities related to strategic planning, business planning, and the early stages of infrastructure planning and design • Engineering and Design: Detailed engineering and design activities related to new or upgraded infrastructure • Operations and Maintenance: Activities related to asset operation and maintenance Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 11 • Contingency Programming: Activities to enhance the system’s pre-disaster readiness and post-disaster recovery • Institutional Capacity and Coordination: Activities to enhance organizational capacity and improve coordination with other entities to enhance the management of the entire system Resiliency can be achieved only if it is considered through all these pillars. In the context of air transport, resilience extends beyond the robust design and engineering of infrastructure elements such as runways and buildings. It also involves comprehensive planning, effective operation and maintenance, capacity building within the organization. Furthermore, while threats and disruptions primarily stem from external forces (disruptive events or trends originating externally to the government and airport operator), gaps primarily arise from internal challenges such as funding shortfalls, inadequate infrastructure, insufficient training, and other factors that limit the ability to cope with and recover from disruptions quickly. Chapter 4 A Holistic Approach to Resilience Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 13 Resilience is challenging to achieve within complex transport infrastructure systems due to the diverse and evolving nature of threats and the frequently high costs associated with material risk reduction. International airports stand out as some of the most costly and complex transport systems. Enhancing their resilience is exceptionally demanding for several reasons, including: • the need for large and relatively flat land areas, often in vulnerable locations such as near coastlines, to accommodate the infrastructure needed to support international air service • the need to protect an array of infrastructure elements and their users, including runways, taxiways, terminal facilities, aircraft hangars and maintenance facilities, aircraft fueling systems, cargo facilities, access/egress roadways, car parking, crash fire rescue (CFR) services and equipment, energy supplies, water supplies, international waste disposal systems, IT systems, health systems, safety systems, security systems, sensitive air navigation equipment, and more • The elevated safety standards at commercial service airports, especially those with international services • the high costs associated with building, operating, and maintaining airports that provide adequate capacity and meet international standards of safety and level of service, irrespective of resilience considerations 4.1. Potential Threats to Air Transport The numerous potential threats to an air transport system are listed in table 4.1. Table 4.1. Potential Threats to the Air Transport System Threats Description Climate/natural disasters Earthquakes Hurricanes and other storms Tsunamis Rising sea level Volcanic eruptions Bush fires Extreme temperatures Changing wind patterns Health, safety, and security Pandemics challenges Aircraft accidents Terrorism Cyber attacks Geopolitical/socio-economic Economic downturns instability Civil unrest Conflict/war Technological/competitive Advanced telecommunications (for example, video conferencing) disruption replaces some travel New transport modes/technologies Improved tourism competition from other communities Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 14 Threats Description Manmade/environmental Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission concerns (for example, “flight challenges shaming” reduces travel demand) Man-made environmental disasters (for example, oil spill impacts beaches and tourism) Airline market weakness Financially distressed airline industry Overly regulated air service markets Governance/management Labor disputes problems Industrial actions Source: World Bank. A cross country comparison of threat risk rating in Grenada, Saint Lucia, and Haiti is provided in table 4.2 (see Appendix G for details on threat-risk assessment approach). Threat risk perception in Grenada and Saint Lucia appears to be similar, particularly for threats with very high and very low risks. Hurricane, storm, tourism competition and economic downturn are among the perceived high- risk threats in all three countries. Table 4.2. Comparison of Threat Risk Rating among Select Countries Threats Saint Lucia Grenada Haiti Hurricane 18.8 18.6 20.8 Storm 17.3 15.0 21.5 COVID-19 13.3 18.7 16.3 Improved Travel/Tourism Competition 13.1 10.5 21.0 Economic Downturn 12.5 14.9 19.0 Volcanic Eruption 12.0 12.1 6.8 Sea-level Rise 11.9 13.0 18.3 Dry Season 11.9 7.9 6.8 Small Regional Market 11.9 10.9 Advanced Communications/Collaboration 11.7 9.9 16.2 Technologies Higher Temperatures 11.2 10.6 9.7 Man-made Environmental Disaster 11.1 6.3 New Pandemic/Epidemic 11.0 13.7 15.2 Regulatory-Safety Underperformance 10.7 9.3 Cyber Attack 10.6 11.0 10.5 Earthquake 10.3 10.7 22.0 Financially Weak Airline Industry 10.1 12.0 Saharan Air Layer 10.1 Incompatible Land Use 9.9 9.0 23.5 Labor Disputes/Shortages 9.3 9.5 Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 15 GHG Emission 9.1 8.3 Aircraft Accident(s) 7.9 7.4 15.3 Tsunami 7.8 11.4 10.0 Civil/Political Unrest 7.6 7.6 25.0 New Transport Modes/Technologies 6.7 8.1 Terrorist Incident 6.5 9.1 6.8 Conflict/War 6.3 6.7 20.3 Legend: Negative Positive Source: World Bank. 4.2. Factors for Achieving Resilience To achieve air transport resilience, a range of factors have to be addressed holistically (table 4.3). Table 4.3. Factors that Must be Addressed to Achieve Air Transport Resilience Factors Description Infrastructure Robust civil infrastructure (airside, landside, ground access/egress, and systems drainage, sea defenses) and maintenance Advanced and robust air traffic control and navigational aids to improve safety, enhance operational efficiency, and reduce service disruption Suitable facilities, equipment, and systems for ensuring public health, safety, and security Robust/redundant critical utilities – energy, water, waste, telecommunications Management, Appropriate strategies, policies, plans, and incentive systems organization, Adequate skills and staffing levels; solid retention strategies and operations Emergency operations plans with clear roles and responsibilities Pre-qualification of goods and service providers for faster post-disaster procurement Financial/funding Optimized financial performance – strong earnings, revenue diversification, cost management Disaster reserve funds and contingency budgets Emergency financing mechanisms Optimized insurance coverage (for example, business interruption coverage, sufficiently high coverage limits) Targeted leveraging of private sector resources to increase funding, improve performance, and transfer risks Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 16 Factors Description Governance Rules, policies, and systems that require/incentivize resilience Appropriate coordination across agencies (including those outside aviation), regional organizations (for example, CARICOM), and with outside parties (for example, airlines, ground transport providers) Competent and independent regulatory oversight (economic and safety) Air service market Liberal, open market for air service Suitable airport facilities for airlines; fair aeronautical charges and taxes Economic, political, and geopolitical stability; open borders Economic activity linked to air transport – tourism, high-value product exports Source: World Bank. Identifying infrastructure weaknesses and the need for upgrades is the most straightforward aspect of addressing the resilience challenge for air transport. A much bigger challenge is adapting an organization so that it better addresses the full spectrum of ongoing challenges necessary to successfully implement an across-the-board program of resilience enhancements over an extended period. This endeavor includes revising organizational roles and responsibilities, enhancing financial performance and management, improving master planning and investment prioritization, and upgrading design and construction standards. An airport operator’s ability to withstand, absorb, and adapt hinges on more than identifying physical construction needs; it also depends on its mission clarity, priorities, management systems/processes, financial health, and culture. The most important step is establishing a high-performance airport management organization with resilience embedded in its mission – everything else derives from this step. This is particularly critical for smaller countries with limited aviation revenues and economic means. Even in such cases, the same rigorous standards for aviation safety and capacity must be met, regardless of disparities in financial capacity. Chapter 5 Common Resilience Themes for Airports Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 18 Airports around the world face many similar threats, but the specific nature of threats vary for each airport. Many factors must be assessed such as: • proximity to risks, such as the sea, seismic zones, volcanoes, conflict zones • elevation and prevailing climate, wind, and weather patterns • expected impacts of climate change such as changes in sea level, temperatures, wind patterns, fire risks, and landslide risks • economic and geopolitical context • competitive dynamics for tourism and air travel • airline market characteristics 5.1. Typical Resilience Gaps While airports can learn from each other, resilience strategies have to be tailored to the unique circumstances of each airport. Nonetheless, it is instructive to consider the typical resilience gaps, such as: • local resource constraints, especially for smaller communities, encompassing capital, human, and natural assets like land • aging and insufficiently resilient (or simply inadequate, in some cases) existing infrastructure, especially in the context of climate change impacts such as sea-level rise and more frequent and stronger storms • inadequate emphasis on resilience in air transport sector policies and governance systems; insufficient coordination with external agencies • outdated airport management, organization, and business models that limit flexibility, responsiveness, and performance of the airport enterprise • prolonged financial underperformance, especially for airports with relatively low passenger traffic volumes, resulting in a constant struggle to meet basic but expensive capacity and safety requirements. Resilience often takes a backseat in circumstances characterized by: • an insufficiently diversified revenue base (for example, overdependence on aeronautical charges) • untapped opportunities to optimize performance, such as unrealized potential for significantly increasing non-aeronautical revenues • high fixed operating costs • inadequate quality insurance coverage, which can hinder the speed of recovery; this challenge may include items not being covered, lack of clarity on the extent of coverage, and insufficient coverage limits • limited incorporation of resilience into new infrastructure designs and investment decision- making, including quantifying the cost of risk and conducting life cycle cost comparisons when evaluating alternatives Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 19 5.2. Typical Resilience Solutions It is also instructive to consider the typical resilience solutions employed by airport operators. These include: • making targeted investments to resolve critical deficiencies in existing infrastructure and protect from long-term impacts of climate change; upgraded sea defenses and enhanced drainage are often the highest priorities for an airport located near the sea • incorporating resilience into national air transport sector policies and governance systems/ structures; establishing coordination protocols with external agencies and regional organizations • upgrading planning, design, and construction standards for new airport infrastructure. This requires: • more flexibility in new facility plans and designs to adapt to evolving threats, changing business models, and new technologies • investment decision-makers to consider lifecycle costs and quantify the cost of risks; assign a monetary value to risk for financial analysis and decision-making • liberalizing air service markets to improve the business climate for airlines, increase air service, and improve airport revenue generation • enhancing airport financial performance by increasing non-aeronautical revenues, reducing operating costs, and restructuring debt • remedying any insurance coverage deficiencies • establishing a disaster reserve fund and contingent emergency funding mechanisms • refining organizational structure, roles, and responsibilities to achieve resilience objectives Considering the costs involved, resilience is especially challenging for smaller countries with limited air traffic, revenue, and economic means. It is far less likely that the State will be able to use other funds (from outside the aviation system) to adequately address air transport sector resilience challenges. As there is less margin for error, it becomes crucial to adopt a holistic approach to optimize the performance of the aviation sector. Further, it is imperative that aviation revenues are applied to the aviation sector rather than be diverted for other purposes. 5.3. Common Themes for Caribbean Airports There are many common themes (table 5.1) across the Caribbean region with respect to the resilience of the air transport sector. These themes can also be used to evaluate the situations in Grenada, Haiti, and Saint Lucia. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 20 Table 5.1. Air Transport Resilience: Common Themes across the Caribbean Region Common Themes Description Financially challenged Challenging business and market conditions for regional service: regional airline • Small island populations and fluctuating tourism levels industry with • Low- to medium-income countries unstable air service • Other than tourism and higher education, the nature of economic activity does not characteristics typically generate a significant amount of regional or extra-regional travel • Short regional routes and runway length limitations at many airports favor the use of smaller aircraft that are often less well-equipped and more expensive to operate (on a per seat kilometer basis) High flight cancellation rate: • Aircraft maintenance-related disruptions exacerbated by the use of older aircraft • Weather-related disruptions exacerbated by aircraft and airport limitations • Limited local availability of skilled staff (for example, pilots, flight attendants, maintenance specialists, and inspectors) Limited, expensive, and frequently changing airline service impedes the achievement of demand maturity Under-funded and Governments have limited economic means under-equipped Airports have relatively low traffic and revenue levels, yet they are capital-, O&M-, and airports human resource-intensive; aviation revenues are sometimes diverted for non-aviation uses Underdeveloped non-aeronautical revenues (for example, shops, restaurants, aviation- compatible commercial land use) limit financial performance and investment capacity Capital investment needs often exceed funding availability: • Navaids (for example, instrument landing systems (ILS), automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B)) • Safety infrastructure (for example, runway end safety areas) • Climate/disaster resilience infrastructure (for example, sea defenses, enhanced drainage, redundant energy supply) High aeronautical charges are common, especially when non-aeronautical revenues are low, but they negatively impact airline costs and travel demand Limited local supply of human resources and inadequate investment in skills development Management incentives not well aligned with addressing structural challenges and pursuing opportunities Inconsistent Below average safety audit scores from the International Civil Aviation Organization’s regulatory oversight (ICAO’s) Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme (ICAO routinely audits the aviation and safety safety oversight capacities of its 193 Member States) performance Flight restrictions sometimes imposed by other countries on the airlines based in the Eastern Caribbean region due to safety concerns Competitive Strong correlation between tourism and long-haul flight service (for example, non- dynamics among stop flights to major cities in North America, South America, and Europe) leads to the countries temptation to invest limited resources in the capacity expansion needed to attract such service (for example, longer runways, larger aprons/terminals) Already high natural Airports often located near the sea and close to sea level disaster risk; climate Frequent hurricanes and strong storms change impacts (for example, sea level rise) Source: World Bank. These themes would also be largely applicable to other Caribbean countries, especially low-income and/or Small Island Developing States (SIDS) as well as SIDS in other parts of the world. Chapter 6 Grenada Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 22 6.1. Country and Sector Context 6.1.1. Country Context Grenada, situated in the southeastern part of the Caribbean region and a member of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), has grappled with challenges such as the relatively low levels of economic growth, substantial debt burdens, and high unemployment rates. All of these challenges have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The country’s economy is currently driven by services, especially related to tourism and higher education. Grenada is categorized as an upper middle-income country with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of US$10,472 in 2022 and a population of approximately 114,000 (IMF, 2022. World Economic Outlook). Its economic structure has transformed over the last few decades from predominantly agriculture (mainly the production of sugar cane, cocoa, nutmeg, and banana) to services, specifically tourism and private educational services (for example, St. George’s University has over 6,000 students). Just before the COVID-19 pandemic struck, tourism represented almost 80 percent of Grenada’s total exports and 41 percent of economic output in 2019, considering linkages with other sectors (IMF, 2022. Grenada: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release). According to the IMF, as a direct result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the total GDP declined by 13.8 percent in 2020 but began recovering in 2021, registering a 5.6 percent GDP growth, driven by construction activity and agriculture. For 2022, the IMF projected a 3.6 percent growth based on construction activity, the gradual uptick in tourist arrivals, and the recovery of offshore private education. The pandemic-induced instability also caused unemployment rates to surge from 15.4 percent in 2019 to 28.4 percent in Q2 2020, but by Q2 2021, it had fallen to 16.6 percent. Granada’s general government gross debt levels have steadily demonstrated a downward trajectory from approximately 103 percent of the GDP in 2011 to an estimated 69 percent in 2022 (IMF, 2022. World Economic Outlook). This represents significant progress in the wake of two recent sovereign debt defaults - the first immediately following the devastating impact of Hurricane Ivan in 2004; and the second in 2013, following years of low economic growth and insufficient debt relief (Caribbean, 2021). Although the pandemic caused debt levels to increase from 58.6 percent of the GDP in 2019 to 71.4 percent in 2020, they have since been on a declining trend, reaching an estimated 69 percent in 2022. This progress demonstrates the Government’s continued commitment to prudent debt management. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to significant progress reducing public debt, Grenada enjoyed an economic upturn, with real GDP growth averaging 4.5 percent between 2014 and 2019, one of the highest in the Caribbean region. Per capita income consistently rose, and the poverty rate fell to 25 percent in 2019 (from 38 percent in 2008), and unemployment declined to 15.4 percent in 2019 (IMF, 2022. Grenada: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release) from 22.9 percent in 20153 (James, Lafeuillee, Li, Salinas, Savchenk, 2019). Notably, from 2014 to 2018, international tourism receipts increased by 45 percent and exports of services rose by approximately 34 percent. The growth in tourism was driven by strong increases in cruise ship and airline traffic, both posting double-digit annual gains in the few years preceding the pandemic. This growth was also spurred by construction activity, with the development of new resorts and the expansion of St. George’s University.   Grenada’s 2015 Labor Force Survey 3 Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 23 Despite the significant macroeconomic risks, such as the impact of the war in Ukraine on commodity prices and pandemic-related disruptions, early post-pandemic indicators suggest that Grenada is on the path to a swift recovery and further progress on various economic fronts. The Government views a key element of this progress to be economic diversification beyond tourism, including a greater focus on the agriculture sector, considering its substantial contribution to employment. While agriculture represented only approximately 5.2 percent of the GDP in 2018 – about half the level of 1990 – it accounted for about 11 percent of the labor force. A promising growth opportunity that could be further supported with more reliable air transportation is the export of fresh fish and fruits to the USA and Canada via air freight. These high-value agricultural exports have been increasing in recent years. Specifically, from 2011 to 2019, air cargo volume increased by 100 percent, largely due to the growth in higher-value agricultural exports such as cod fish, soursop, and other fresh foods that require reliable air transportation. The importance of economic diversification has been underscored by the adverse impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism sector. The most critical factor influencing Grenada’s economic outlook is its vulnerability to hydrometeorological and geological hazards and the impacts of climate change, which pose risks to economic stability and social development. The estimated average annual economic loss due to natural disasters in Grenada was 3 percent per unit GDP between 2000 and 2019, and its Climate Risk Index (CRI) rank was 21 out of 180 countries assessed (Eckstein, Künzel, and Schäfer, 2021). Over the last few decades, Grenada has experienced numerous tropical storms that caused substantial economic disruptions. According to the European Network on Debt and Development (eurodad), cumulative damages resulting from these storms amounted to 157 percent of the GDP between 1980 and 2015, effectively offsetting all the economic growth achieved during the same period. The catastrophic impact of these events is evident in the damage caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, which destroyed 90 percent of available housing and resulted in damages estimated at 200 percent of the GDP. The humanitarian crisis and economic repercussions triggered a sovereign debt default shortly afterwards. Recognizing these challenges, the Government has prepared a Disaster Resilience Strategy (DRS) that outlines the policies necessary for resilience building, their anticipated benefits and costs, and a roadmap of actions that are consistent with debt sustainability (IMF, 2022. Grenada: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release). However, given Grenada’s historical debt challenges and limited financial resources, assistance will be required to make the necessary investments in resilience. Accordingly, the Government is seeking international support to facilitate the implementation of the DRS and a transition towards renewable energy, critical for enhancing resilience to natural disasters and economic competitiveness (IMF, 2022. IMF Executive Board Concludes. Press Release). 6.1.2. Grenada Aviation Sector Overview Maurice Bishop International Airport (MBIA), which serves as Grenada’s primary airport, had experienced significant passenger and cargo growth prior to the pandemic, despite a reduction in intra-regional connectivity. In 2019, it had scheduled non-stop passenger service to Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Lucia, Barbados, the United States of America (Miami and New York), and Canada (Toronto). In 2019, MBIA handled 447,522 passengers, marking an almost 16 percent increase over 2016. Air cargo activity also grew substantially, with freight volume doubling from about 1.5 million kg to just over 3.0 million kg between 2011 and 2019. Grenada has two more airports: Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 24 • Lauriston Airport, situated on the Island of Carriacou, which functions as a small airport with scheduled daily passenger service from MBIA and an annual passenger volume of about 15,000 passengers before the pandemic • Pearls Airport located on the eastern side of Grenada, which is currently non-operational All airports are under the administration of the Grenada Airports Authority (GAA), a statutory corporation overseen by a board of directors representing the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Ministry of Tourism and Civil Aviation (MOTCA), as defined in the Airport Authority Act. For a visual representation of the country of Grenada and its airports, an aerial view of MBIA, and the ICAO aerodrome chart of MBIA, see figures 6.1, 6.2, and 6.3, respectively. Figure 6.1. Country of Grenada: Airports Source: Adapted from GISGeography.com Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 25 Figure 6.2. Aerial View of MBIA Source: Google Earth. Figure 6.3. ICAO Aerodrome Chart for MBIA Source: ICAO. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 26 The impact of the pandemic on air passenger traffic volumes has been substantial. In 2020, MBIA processed 126,336 passengers and in 2021, 115,083 passengers, which was only about 25 percent of the traffic volume handled in 2019. Passenger traffic volumes are expected to recover in 2022, reaching at least 50 percent of the 2019 level due to the pent-up demand for leisure travel. A full return to the 2019 levels and further growth is expected in the next few years. Air cargo volumes were also impacted by the pandemic, but not as substantially. In 2021, MBIA processed approximately 2.2 million kg of air cargo, a 27 percent reduction from the 3.0 million kg processed in 2019. MBIA requires significant investments to improve safety, capability, and resilience and to support economic recovery. While the airport is well designed and constructed from a resilience perspective, it is aging, reaching capacity limits in areas such as air cargo, which operates out of a temporary facility established in the aftermath of Hurricane Ivan. Furthermore, it lacks essential state-of-the- art air navigational aids, which compromises safety and increases the risk of flight cancellations, diversions, and delays, particularly burdening airlines with an intra-regional focus. MBIA is vulnerable to extreme weather and with rising sea levels and the ongoing erosion of its sea defenses, the risk is steadily increasing. While GAA’s overall management of MBIA is considered satisfactory, there is a consensus that, given the strategic importance of air transport to Grenada, further institutional improvements are necessary in safety/security, financial management, operations/maintenance, and regulatory oversight. The MOTCA is responsible for aviation policy and regulation in Grenada, but most of its air transport regulation responsibilities are delegated to the regional Eastern Caribbean Civil Aviation Authority (ECCAA), which notably handles the airport certification processes. It serves as the civil aviation authority for many members of the OECS, including Saint Lucia and Grenada. The Civil Aviation Act of Grenada stipulates the responsibilities of the ministry and ECCAA in aviation policy and regulation enforcement. Grenada has been red-flagged since 2013 under the Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme (USOAP) of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), raising significant concerns about Grenada and the ECCAA’s ability to properly oversee airports, aircraft, and air navigation services (ICAO, 2018). In the last audit in 2019, Grenada scored 6.3 percent in the effective implementation of ICAO’s Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) for aerodromes, compared to a global average of 63.4 percent. Following a comprehensive review of the ECCAA, in 2020, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) downgraded ECCAA-regulated countries from Category 1 to Category 2 under its International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) program, which uses an audit process to determine whether a country’s regulatory oversight of its air carriers complies with ICAO safety standards. A Category 2 rating means that airlines registered in ECCAA-regulated countries cannot initiate new service to the USA. The absence of ICAO-required runway end safety areas (RESAs) at both ends of the runway at MBIA and periodic aircraft bird strikes pose risks to aircraft engines and undercarriages and undermine aircraft operational safety. This is exacerbated by the use of non-precision air navigation instruments, which also may limit the number of arrivals during adverse meteorological conditions. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 27 Recognizing these challenges and the strategic importance of MBIA and the expectation that passenger and cargo demand will soon grow beyond pre-pandemic levels, the Government of Grenada (GoG) has embarked on two MBIA investment programs: • The Caribbean Regional Air Transport Connectivity Project (CATCOP), financed by the World Bank Group (WBG) as part of a regional program targeting select Caribbean countries, was launched in 2020. The project primarily addresses airfield safety and resilience deficiencies in Grenada. It includes a US$17-million International Development Association (IDA)-financed investment focusing on improvements to aircraft operational safety and resilience. This involves enhancements such as RESAs, ILS for Runway 10, and ADS-B. Additionally, it encompasses: • the development of resilient air cargo infrastructure to support a growing higher-value agricultural export market • the development of long-term investment strategies like an Aviation Sector Strategic Plan (ASSP) and Sea Defense and Flooding Resilience Plan (SDFRP) • organizational capacity building While the majority of the CATCOP investment is for equipment and infrastructure (figure 6.4), a significant share has been allocated to technical assistance and capacity building to support the GoG’s long-term development plans and upgrade its management and oversight of the air transport sector. • The Airport Runway and Road Upgrade and Rehabilitation Project (ARRUR), a separate US$67-million project financed by Exim Bank of China, focuses on airport capacity, resilience, and safety improvements. This includes capacity enhancement of the passenger terminal (for example, expansion of the aircraft parking apron and installation of passenger loading bridges), resurfacing of the bypass roadway leading to the Sandals Resort, rehabilitating the runway and its lighting system, and establishing a new emergency operations center. Both projects are financed with parallel credit (CATCOP) and loan (ARRUR) arrangements, respectively. Figure 6.4. CATCOP Improvements at MBIA Source: WBG, adapted from Google Earth. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 28 6.2. Air Transport Sector Resilience Assessment – Grenada 6.2.1. Key Threats to Air Transport Of the nearly 30 distinct identified threats to air transport in Grenada (figure 6.5), 15 were selected as the most critical based on participants’ subjective ratings for threat likelihood and severity. These factors are included in the subsequent gaps-solutions evaluation (see Appendix G for details on threat-risk assessment approach). Hurricane and COVID-19 emerged the top threats for Grenada study participants, both in terms of severity and likelihood. Figure 6.5. Threat Risk Matrix – Grenada Threat Risk Severity Catastrophic Major Moderate Minor Insignificant Probability 5 4 3 2 1 Almost 5 Certain Earthquake Hurricane Covid-19 Highly Storm 4 Likely Improved Travel Competition Cyber Attack New Pandemic Economic Downturn Sea Level Small Regional Market Financially Weak Airline Industry Rise Advanced Communication Technologies Likely 3 Volcanic Eruption Higher Temperature Dry Season Tsunami Labor Dispute GHG Emission Incompatible Land Use Regulatory-Safety Underperformance New Transport Modes Civil/Political Unrest Possible 2 Aircraft Accident(S) Manmade Environmental Disaster Conflict/War Terrorist Incident Highly 1 Unlikely Source: World Bank, in collaboration with study participants. Note: Color spectrums are illustrative. 6.2.2. Critical Resilience Gaps Critical resilience gaps associated with the 15 key threats were identified (table 6.1) based on their individual significance with relation to a major threat or their frequency of identification across threats. For completeness, gaps were identified and listed even when there are plans in place through CATCOP, ARRUR, or otherwise to address them. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 29 Table 6.1. Critical Resilience Gaps Associated with Key Threats Critical Resilience Description Gaps Infrastructure, Engineering, Aging and insufficiently resilient existing MBIA infrastructure: and Operations • Most MBIA buildings were constructed in the 1980s and may require upgrades to handle the risks associated with higher winds, flooding, and extreme heat. • While drainage systems are of generally high quality, certain areas suffer from inadequate drainage capacity, insufficient connections between landside and airside drainage systems, and the vulnerability of sensitive IT systems in flood prone areas. These deficiencies at MBIA and its surroundings heighten the risks associated with hurricanes, storms, storm surges, and sea level rise. • MBIA’s sea defenses, critical for defense against storm surges and sea level rise, are aging and may not be adequate over the long term. • Older facilities are vulnerable to hurricane force winds and seismic activity Multiple safety-related deficiencies and challenges at MBIA: • Lack of RESAs • Lack of navigational aids to provide a stabilized runway approach • Periodic aircraft bird strikes • Poor ICAO and FAA safety audits • Absence of an emergency operations center Infrastructure limitations that constrain MBIA’s air traffic and revenue development: • Small passenger terminal with limited opportunities to enhance non-aero revenues • Undersized and inadequately equipped cargo facility located in a temporary structure Insufficient redundancy for critical infrastructure and systems: • Lack of redundant energy supply beyond emergency generators heightening MBIA’s vulnerability to natural disasters • Absence of a second operational airport on the island of Grenada that could provide a degree of redundancy, in case MBIA is temporarily unavailable (it is located adjacent to the sea and only 12 meters above mean sea level); a separate study should be undertaken to determine if investments should be made in the currently non-operational Pearls Airport to provide minimum standard facilities (runway, taxiway, and aircraft parking apron) for temporary or emergency operations Cybersecurity software, systems, and training may be outdated due to the increased reliance on work-from-home staff and constantly evolving threats (for example, the recent surge in ransomware attacks) Ground access to MBIA depends upon roadway systems that are vulnerable to landslides and flooding, and only limited alternative routings are available Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 30 Critical Resilience Description Gaps Business, Management, Significant resource constraints in the national aviation sector: and Governance • Small population and economy • Limited government resources and borrowing capacity, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic • Limited revenue generation capacity within the aviation sector due to relatively low air traffic levels, even before the pandemic Weak airport financial position and performance limit GAA’s ability to handle disruptions and make investments crucial to improve performance and enhance resilience: • Untapped potential for performance optimization, particularly regarding non- aeronautical revenue generation • Insufficiently diversified revenue base and overdependence on aeronautical charges • High fixed operating costs (partially an inherent characteristic of international airports), including high unit prices for electricity • Financial reserves significantly impacted by COVID-19 • Slow post-pandemic traffic recovery Incomplete preparation for managing emergencies: • Inadequate preparation for ash mitigation and removal following a major volcanic eruption, including the lack of appropriate equipment, systems, and procedures • Lack of up-to-date MBIA tsunami evacuation plan • Lack of a protection program for vital air traffic control and other key operational equipment in case of major hurricane/storm • Lack of a formal agreement between GAA and utilities (for example, power, water, communications) for handling post-event recovery efforts and ensuring business continuity Lack of clarity on roles and responsibilities for drainage-related maintenance and post-storm clearing activities, especially at the interfaces between MBIA and the surrounding communities Lack of Caribbean Community (CARICOM) region air service liberalization fractures market and creates more challenging business conditions for airlines, raises costs, and limits traffic Source: World Bank, in collaboration with study participants. 6.2.3. Priority Resilience Solutions Given the multitude of resilience threats and gaps identified during the study, numerous solutions to enhance resilience were identified. However, instead of creating a mere laundry list of actions, the study identified the solutions that offer the greatest benefit, as outlined in this section. As a subsequent step beyond this study, it is recommended that a Resilience Enhancement Implementation Plan (REIP) be developed. This plan should include a cost-benefit assessment of the identified solutions and a realistic implementation timeline that takes into account resource availability (for example, funding and staffing) and the most logical sequencing of activities. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 31 The first and most important step for Grenada to improve air transport resilience is the establishment of a high-performance airport management organization with resilience embedded in its mission. This will yield the following benefits: • improved risk awareness, assessments, and quantification • improved business planning, financial performance, and investment capacity • improved investment prioritization, facility planning, design, construction, and maintenance • improved adaptive capacity with new skills, knowledge, and resources As previously noted, rather than exclusively focusing on infrastructure in resilience building and climate adaptation efforts, it is advisable to adopt a comprehensive approach by enhancing the organization’s capabilities, while embedding resilience into its mission and optimizing performance. The specific priority solutions identified in table 6.2 include a broad range of measures consistent with this approach. Further, for completeness, priority solutions were identified and listed even if there are existing plans through CATCOP or ARRUR to address them. Solutions not already assigned to such an implementation mechanism were categorized as to be determined (TBD). Image 6.1. Maurice Bishop International Airport, Grenada Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Bishop_International_Airport#/media/File:Maurice_Bishop_International_Airport_ Grenada.jpg Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 32 Table 6.2. Solutions: Short Term and Medium Term Short Medium Category Priority Solutions Term Term Infrastructure, Make critical investments in infrastructure and systems: Engineering, and • Upgrade airport drainage capacity in current and future flood-prone O * Operations areas based on the outcome of CATCOP-funded SDFRP X • Rehabilitate MBIA’s runway X • Build RESAs at both ends of MBIA’s runway X • Install ILS for Runway 10 X • Implement ADS-B for the island of Grenada • Construct permanent resilient cargo facility with upgraded X-ray * screening capacity O • Create additional in-terminal space for revenue-generating activities • Implement an emergency operations center Conduct studies, analyses, and audits to define other critical investments: • Develop an REIP that transforms recommended resilience solutions into a realistic program for implementing them X * • Prepare a SDFRP for MBIA • Conduct a structural audit for key MBIA facilities related to earthquakes and hurricane winds; determine existing capacity * deficiencies and recommend upgrade programs • Conduct a cybersecurity audit and prepare a plan for upgrading * systems, procedures, and skills, as appropriate • Conduct a gap assessment for ICAO SARPs compliance and develop X an upgrade program X • Upgrade the wildlife management programs for MBIA to minimize the risks of bird strikes and runway incursions X • Develop a COVID-19 response and recovery strategy • Prepare an ASSP for Grenada, addressing long-term development X (including funding and financing) and the use of Grenada’s aviation assets, including investments needed to enhance resilience X • Conduct a high-level cost and feasibility assessment of maintaining the minimum operational capability of Pearls Airport for emergency backup (as part of ASSP) X • Conduct a high-level business case and feasibility assessment for the development of on-airport renewable energy sources (as part of ASSP) Improve the coordination and management of flooding risks (including * post-storm clearing activities) in the immediate vicinity of MBIA Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 33 Short Medium Category Priority Solutions Term Term Business, Optimize the business, financial, and operational performance of the Management, and aviation sector: Governance • Develop an aviation sector business and financial plan for improving financial performance and ensuring a realistic program of investments X (as part of ASSP) • Prepare an updated air service marketing strategy that reflects the benefits of new/upgraded facilities and an in-depth assessment of * markets most suited to new or enhanced air service Complete preparations for better management of emergencies: • Prepare an updated tsunami-specific MBIA evacuation plan (*/ST) * • Purchase business interruption coverage insurance, if necessary (*/ST) * • Establish additional contingent emergency response funding * mechanisms (*/MT) • Prepare a volcanic eruption preparation plan (VEPP) that identifies any * need for investments or operational preparations (*/MT) • Prepare a plan for the storage of key equipment in a secure location (including redundant basic equipment) to facilitate a quick restart of * operations post-disaster (*/ST) Improve economic regulation and safety oversight of the aviation sector: • Develop a comprehensive plan in coordination with ECCAA for: * • addressing safety concerns identified through the ICAO and FAA audit programs as well as the gap assessment discussed in section 6.2.2 • achieving full aerodrome certification for MBIA * • Promote the economic liberalization of the air transport sector in the region in collaboration with CARICOM and other Caribbean institutions * • Whenever feasible, lower aeronautical charges to encourage air service development, particularly as alternative revenue streams are established Develop an organizational transformation strategy for GAA, embedding * resilience in its mission, priorities, structures, and processes Source: World Bank in collaboration with study participants. Note: *: Implementation arrangements to be determined. X: Under implementation through CATCOP. O: Under implementation through ARRUR. 6.2.4. Development of a Resilience Enhancement Implementation Plan This study has identified the major threats, critical gaps, and priority solutions related to the resilience of Grenada’s air transport system. However, considering the limitations posed by constrained financial and human capital resources, it is vital to develop an REIP. This plan should establish a practical blueprint for implementing solutions, encompassing costs, resource pre- requisites, funding and financing sources, logical sequencing, and proposed timing. The REIP should be developed along with the ASSP (figure 6.6) to cover all potential investment needs as well as costs and financial resources. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 34 Figure 6.6. Aviation Sector Strategic Plan including Resilience Enhancement Implementation Plan, Grenada ICAO SARP's Upd t d MBIA ps S D f ns ss ssm nt Str t Or ni tion l tr nsform tion Audits of f ciliti s, str t dr in s st ms, nd c b rs curit Avi tion S ctor Str t ic Pl n includin R sili nc Enh nc m nt On- irport Avi tion s ctor Impl m nt tion Pl n r n w bl busin ss pl n n r stud COVID-19 r spons Volc nic Eruption nd r cov r Pr p r tion Pl n str t P rls Airport m r nc b ckup c p bilit ss ssm nt Source: World Bank, in collaboration with study participants. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 35 6.2.5. Detailed Assessment of Threats, Gaps, and Solutions Appendix A includes detailed tables outlining gaps and solutions for each of the top 15 threats in a two-part format: • Threat Assessment. This describes the threat, including potential impacts, consequences, and timing. • Resilience Assessment. This outlines key resilience gaps and potential solutions for the particular threat. 6.2.6. Alternative Categorization of Resilience Solutions To facilitate the development of an REIP, Appendix B includes the full list of solutions identified and categorizes them based on the five pillars of the infrastructure lifecycle: • Systems Planning: Activities related to strategic planning, business planning, and the early stages of infrastructure planning and design • Engineering and Design: Detailed engineering and design activities related to new or upgraded infrastructure • Operations and Maintenance: Activities related to operating and maintaining the asset • Contingency Programming: Activities to enhance the system’s pre-disaster readiness and post-disaster recovery • Institutional Capacity and Coordination: Activities to enhance organizational capacity and improve coordination with other entities to facilitate better management of the entire system Chapter 7 Saint Lucia Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 37 7.1. Country and Sector Context 7.1.1. Country Context Saint Lucia, located in the eastern part of the Caribbean region, is a member of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS). The OECS member states are typically small, but highly open, tourism-dependent economies. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, tourism accounted for at least one-quarter of OECS’ total economic output, except in Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines, where the contributions were slightly lower. This region faces several key economic challenges, which have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic including an increasingly heavy reliance on tourism. Agricultural output has declined in recent decades due to competitive pressures from larger nations and the devastating impact of frequent natural disasters on crop yields. This significantly increased the reliance on tourism, private educational services, and niche agricultural exports, all of which are heavily dependent on air transport infrastructure. Saint Lucia, like most OECS members, grapples with relatively low levels of economic growth, high indebtedness, and significantly high unemployment rates. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Saint Lucia had a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of US$11,360 (at current prices) and a population of 182,000 in 2022. Prior to the pandemic, the GDP per capita had been growing at an annual average rate of 0.9 percent for the last 10 years, while its population had increased by 0.7 percent annually over the same period. The total GDP experienced a 20.2 percent decline in 2020 due to the pandemic but began recovering in 2021 with 6.8 percent GDP growth and 9.7 percent projected for 2022. General government gross debt levels were forecast to be 92.4 percent of the GDP in 2022. In 2021, unemployment rates were high at 16.9 percent (World Bank estimate), with youth unemployment even higher at 38.2 percent in 2020, according to Government of Saint Lucia (GoSL) statistics. The informal sector accounts for a large share of employment, estimated at about one-third, mainly in small and microbusinesses (ILO, 2017). Tourism in Saint Lucia, accounting for 42 percent of the GDP and 42 percent of the total employment in 2019, had been growing rapidly at around 7 percent annually prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. International stay-over tourist arrivals in the country had increased significantly from 278,000 in 2009 to 423,000 in 2019, before declining to 131,000 in 2020 in the wake of the pandemic. Given its position in the eastern Caribbean, Saint Lucia faces high exposure to hydrometeorological and geological hazards and the adverse effects of climate change, all of which threaten economic stability and social development gains. Saint Lucia is among the top high-risk countries in the world, ranking 18th globally in terms of the vulnerability of its GDP to weather-related losses from 1997 to 2016 (Eckstein, Künzel, and Schäfer, 2017). Based on the World Bank Group (WBG) analysis, the projected impacts of climate change for Saint Lucia include an increase in mean annual temperatures of 1.4°C by 2050, with the warming expected to be most marked from September to November. Such impacts, coupled with predicted changes in precipitation patterns and likely decrease in rainfall from July to November, are expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and impacts of extreme weather events, including hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding. The total estimated cost of climate change to tourism in Saint Lucia, including reduced visits, land losses to sea-level rise, and damages to coral reefs, has been estimated to range from US$7.9 billion to US$12.1 billion by 2050. This is equivalent to 3.6 to 12 times the island’s 2009 GDP (GoSL, 2018). Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 38 As one of the smallest countries located in the disaster-prone Caribbean, Saint Lucia’s economy is extremely vulnerable to natural disasters and heavily reliant on tourism, which, in turn is heavily impacted by the global environment, natural disasters, and most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. High levels of public debt further hinder the Government’s ability to implement reforms and build resilience. 7.1.2. Saint Lucia Aviation Sector Overview Currently, Saint Lucia has two airports (figure 7.1), which, as an island nation, are vital for the movement of people and goods and for the tourism sector. Hewanorra International Airport (HIA), the main international airport, is located in the far south of the island, and George FL Charles Airport (GFLCA), a smaller airport that primarily provides regional connectivity from the capital city of Castries, is located in the northern region. Both airports are operated by the Saint Lucia Air and Sea Ports Authority (SLASPA). Figure 7.1. Country of Saint Lucia and its Airports Source: GISGeography.com. Saint Lucia’s two airports handled non-stop commercial air travel services to 21 international destinations in 2019. The existence of the two airports at different locations on the island improves the island’s climate/disaster resilience. Passenger traffic levels at HIA grew steadily from 515,137 passengers to 838,120 passengers, at a compound annual growth rate of 5.6 percent Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 39 between 2009 and 2018. This growth and the associated increase in aircraft operations strained airport infrastructure and highlighted the need for greater investments in facility expansion and maintenance. Figures 7.2 and 7.3 show the existing HIA layout and the aerodrome chart. Figure 7.2. Existing HIA Layout Source: HIA Comprehensive Flood Protection Study, March 2019. Figure 7.3. Current ICAO Aerodrome Chart for HIA Source: ICAO. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 40 Since 2013, Saint Lucia has been red-flagged under the Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) raising significant concerns about its ability to properly oversee airports, aircraft, and air navigation services (ICAO, 2018). As of April 2022, Saint Lucia scored only 6.29 percent in the effective implementation of ICAO’s Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) with regard to aerodromes, compared to a global average of 63.37 percent. The absence of ICAO-required runway end safety areas (RESAs) and paved stopways for both HIA and GFLCA runway ends, deteriorated runway pavement, insufficient capacity on crash fire rescue (CFR), and wildlife management pose risks to aircraft engines and undercarriages, undermining aircraft operational safety. Additionally, the use of non-precision air navigation instruments may limit the number of arrivals during adverse meteorological conditions. The ongoing Caribbean Regional Air Transport Connectivity Project (CATCOP) is addressing several of these deficiencies at HIA, including the construction of RESAs and paved stopways, runway pavement rehabilitation, installation of an instrument landing system (ILS) for Runway 10, and an upgrade to the wildlife management program. The most recent disaster risk assessment of airport infrastructure (The World Bank, 2023) identified a high risk of river flooding at HIA as well as potential storm surge impacts at both HIA and GFLCA. This assessment was based on a flood protection study commissioned by the GoSL from 2017 to 2019. The study identified that the La Tourney River, which flows along the periphery of HIA4 and has insufficient capacity to handle heavy rainfall, is a major threat to HIA. A key recommendation was to improve the drainage system at HIA to manage surface runoff from high- intensity rainfall. Furthermore, the study recommended enhancing the resiliency of the runway to future rises in sea level. The ongoing CATCOP project is at least partially addressing these concerns at HIA through airfield drainage improvements as part of the airfield civil works (RESAs, paved runway stopways, runway pavement rehabilitation, and runway shoulder installation). Image 7.1. Hewanorra International Airport, Vieux Fort Quarter, Saint Lucia Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hewanorra_International_Airport#/media/File:Hewanorra_International_Airport_-_ panoramio_(1).jpg 4   The original course of the river went through the airfield and was deviated to accommodate HIA’s development. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 41 While the Department of Civil Aviation (part of the Ministry of Economic Development, Housing, Urban Renewal, Transport, and Civil Aviation) is responsible for the aviation policy and regulation in Saint Lucia, most of its responsibilities are delegated to the regional Eastern Caribbean Civil Aviation Authority (ECCAA). ECCAA serves several members of the OECS, including Saint Lucia and Grenada. The Civil Aviation Act outlines the responsibilities of the ministry and ECCAA in terms of aviation policy and regulation enforcement. Recognizing the strategic importance of HIA and in expectation of passenger demand soon exceeding pre-pandemic levels, the GoSL has initiated significant investments in the airport (figure 7.4) including: • The Hewanorra International Airport Redevelopment Project (HIARP), which was launched in 2018 and reinitiated in 2022 after a pause during the pandemic, encompasses the construction of a new main terminal building; a new air traffic control tower; an extended apron (and associated drainage); and airside and landside infrastructure (such as car parks and access roads). • The Caribbean Regional Air Transport Connectivity Project (CATCOP), which was financed by the WBG as part of a regional program targeting select Caribbean countries, was launched in 2020. It primarily addresses airfield safety and resilience deficiencies at HIA, and involves the rehabilitation of the runway pavement; construction of shoulders, RESAs, and paved stopways; upgrades of airfield drainage systems; the modernization of air navigation systems; improvements to the CFR facility; and investments in organizational capacity building. Figure 7.4. HIA Development Projects (Ongoing, Planned, and Potential) Source: Adapted from Google Earth. Note: 1. CATCOP airfield improvements: runway rehabilitation, new shoulders, marking and lighting, drainage improvements, paved stopways, RESAs. 2. Other CATCOP improvements (not shown): ILS for Runway 10, including glide slope and localizer antennas, CFR improvements. 3. HIARP improvements: new terminal, aircraft parking, and Airport Traffic Control Towers (ATCT) (design and construction ongoing). 4. Other potential improvements: flood protection measures, runway extension, partial parallel taxiway. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 42 7.2. Air Transport Sector Resilience Assessment—Saint Lucia 7.2.1. Key Threats to Air Transport Of the nearly 30 distinct identified threats (figure 7.5), 15 key threats were selected as the most critical for Saint Lucia based on study participants’ subjective ratings for threat likelihood and severity. These threats were included in the subsequent gaps-solutions evaluation (see Appendix G for details on threat risk assessment approach). The top threats for the Saint Lucia air transport sector are storm and hurricane, in terms of both severity and probability. Figure 7.5. Threat Risk Matrix, Saint Lucia Threat Risk Severity Catastrophic Major Moderate Minor Insignificant Probability 5 4 3 2 1 Almost 5 Certain Storm Hurricane Dry Season Highly Advanced Communications Technologies 4 Likely Tourism Competition Sea Level Rise Saharan Air Layer Covid-19 Small Regional Market Sea Level Rise Economic Downturn Higher Temperatures Manmade Disaster Volcanic Eruption Likely 3 New Pandemic Incompatible Land Uses Regulatory-Safety Underperformance Earthquake GHG Emission Concerns Cyber Attack Labor Disputes Financial Weak Financially Airline Industry New Transport Modes Aircraft Accident Tsunami Possible 2 Civil Unrest Terrorist Incident(s) Conflict/War Highly 1 Unlikely Source: World Bank, in collaboration with study participants. Note: Color spectrums are illustrative. 7.2.2. Critical Resilience Gaps Critical resilience gaps associated with the 15 key threats were identified (table 7.1) based on their individual significance with relation to a major threat or their frequency of identification across threats. For comprehensive coverage, gaps were identified and listed even when there are plans in place through CATCOP, HIARP, or others to address them. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 43 Table 7.1. Critical Resilience Gaps Associated with Key Threats Critical Resilience Gaps Description Infrastructure, Engineering, Aging and inadequately resilient infrastructure at HIA: and Operations • Drainage deficiencies at HIA and its surroundings heighten risks associated with hurricanes, storms, storm surges, and rising sea level • HIA’s sea defenses, crucial for protecting against storm surges and rising sea levels, may not be adequate over the long term • Deteriorating runway pavement, which will be addressed through the CATCOP-funded HIA airfield improvements • Vulnerability of older facilities to hurricane force winds and seismic activity Insufficient redundancy in energy supply system increases HIA’s vulnerability to natural disasters. Ground access to HIA depends on roadway systems that are vulnerable to landslides and flooding, and have limited alternative routings. Saint Lucia benefits from having two commercial service airports providing a degree of redundancy. GFLCA cannot replace HIA due to limited runway length and its constrained location, but it could provide critical air-lift capacity for at least emergency services in the event HIA becomes temporarily unavailable. However, GFLCA is also highly vulnerable due to its proximity to the sea and limited protection against sea level rise and coastal erosion. A separate study should be undertaken to identify the investments needed to improve its resilience and therefore, the resilience of the entire airport system. Business, Management, and Significant resource constraints in the national aviation sector: Governance • Small population and economy • Limited government resources and borrowing capacity, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic • Limited aviation sector revenue generation capacity due to relatively low air traffic levels, even before the pandemic Weak airport financial position and performance limits SLASPA’s ability to handle disruptions and make the investments necessary to improve performance and enhance resilience: • Untapped performance optimization, especially with respect to non-aeronautical revenue generation • Insufficiently diversified revenue base and overdependence on aeronautical charges • High fixed operating costs (partially an inherent characteristic of international airports) • Financial reserves substantially impacted by COVID-19 Incomplete preparation for managing emergencies: • Incomplete emergency operations plan for airports due to disruption by COVID-19 pandemic • Lack of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between SLASPA and National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) regarding airport operational protocols decision-making, such as airport opening/closing decisions and timing • Lack of a formal agreement between SLASPA and utilities (power, water, communications) for handling post-event recovery efforts and ensuring business continuity Lack of air service liberalization in the CARICOM region fractures the market and creates more challenging business conditions for airlines, raises costs, and limits traffic. Source: World Bank in collaboration with study participants. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 44 Image 7.2. Saint Lucia tropical island - Caribbean sea - Castries harbor, airplane and airport Source: Adobe Stock. 7.2.3. Priority Resilience Solutions Considering the numerous resilience threats and gaps identified during the study, several resilience- enhancing solutions have been identified. However, instead of merely creating a laundry list of actions, the study identified the solutions offering the greatest benefit. As a follow-up to this study, it is recommended to prepare an REIP. This plan should include a cost-benefit assessment of the identified solutions and a realistic implementation timeline, accounting for resource availability, such as funding and staffing, and the most logical sequencing of activities. The first and most important step for Saint Lucia to improve air transport resilience involves establishing a high-performance airport management organization with resilience embedded in its mission. This foundational step will yield the following benefits: • improved risk awareness, assessments, and quantification • improved business planning, financial performance, and investment capacity • improved investment prioritization, facility planning, design, construction, and maintenance • improved adaptive capacity with new skills, knowledge, and resources Instead of adopting an infrastructure-exclusive approach to resilience building and climate adaptation, it is advisable to adopt a more comprehensive approach and upgrade the organization to embed resilience into its mission and optimize its performance. Further, for the sake of completeness, priority solutions were identified and listed even if there are plans to address them through initiatives such as CATCOP or HIARP (table 7.2). For solutions not yet assigned to an implementation mechanism, they have been categorized as TBD (to be determined). Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 45 Table 7.2. Priority Solutions: Short Term and Medium Term Short Medium Category Priority Solutions Term Term Infrastructure, Make critical investments in infrastructure and systems: Engineering, and • Upgrade drainage capacity of HIA airfield X Operations • Upgrade HIA’s runway, including rehabilitating pavements, X building shoulders, and adding RESAs • Construct turn pad for Runway 10 X • Install ILS for Runway 10 X • Redevelop CFR control room to provide full runway X line-of-sight • Expand aircraft parking apron at terminal O • Develop modern passenger terminal facilities * • Create additional in-terminal space for revenue-generating activities * Conduct the necessary studies, analyses, and audits to define other critical investments: • Prepare an ASSP for Saint Lucia addressing long-term development (including funding and financing) and use of Saint * Lucia’s aviation assets, as well as outlining the investments needed to enhance resilience • Develop an REIP to transform recommended resilience * solutions into a realistic implementation program • Prepare a long-term sea defense strategy for HIA and GFLCA * • Conduct a structural audit for key HIA facilities related to * earthquakes and hurricane winds • Develop a HIA fire protection plan covering fire breaks, other * infrastructure, and ongoing maintenance activities • Conduct a cybersecurity audit and prepare a plan for upgrading systems, procedures, and skills * • Conduct a gap assessment for ICAO SARPs compliance and X develop an upgrade program • Upgrade the wildlife management programs for HIA and X GFLCA to minimize the risks of bird strikes and runway incursions • Develop a COVID-19 response and recovery strategy X • Conduct a business case and feasibility assessment for the X development of on-airport renewable energy sources (as part of ASSP) • Prepare a volcanic eruption preparation plan (VEPP) that * identifies investment requirements • Update the HIA Master Plan incorporating and integrating the results of the various outlined studies to present a phased, 20-year development plan for HIA (as part of the ASSP) * Improve coordination and management of fire and flooding risks * in the immediate vicinity of HIA (*/MT) Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 46 Short Medium Category Priority Solutions Term Term Business, Management, Optimize the business, financial, and operational performance of and Governance the aviation sector: • Develop an aviation sector business and financial plan addressing financial performance improvements and ensuring X a realistic investment program (as part of the ASSP) • Prepare an updated air service marketing strategy that reflects the benefits of new/upgraded facilities and offers an * in-depth assessment of markets suitable for new or enhanced air service (*/ST) • Align the national tourism development plan, air service marketing strategy, and the new ASSP with national * objectives (*/ST) Complete preparations for better management of emergencies: • Finalize the emergency operations plan for airports * • Establish MoUs between SLASPA and key utilities related to post-event recovery and business continuity * • Establish MoU between SLASPA and NEMO regarding airport * operational protocols decision-making • Procure business interruption coverage insurance, if necessary • Establish a dedicated disaster reserve fund and additional * contingent emergency response funding mechanisms Improve economic regulation and safety oversight of the aviation sector: • Develop a comprehensive plan in coordination with ECCAA to address safety concerns identified through the ICAO and FAA * audit programs (and the gap assessment discussed above) and achieve full aerodrome certification for HIA and GFLCA • Work with CARICOM and other Caribbean region institutions to * promote economic liberalization of the air transport sector • Reduce aeronautical charges when feasible to promote air service development, particularly as other revenue sources are developed (*/MT) * Devise an organizational transformation strategy for SLASPA, * embedding resilience in its mission, priorities, structures, and processes (*/MT) Source: World Bank in collaboration with study participants. Note: *: Implementation arrangements to be determined X: Under implementation through CATCOP. O: Under implementation through HIARP. 7.2.4. Developing a Resilience Enhancement Implementation Plan This study has identified the major threats, critical gaps, and priority solutions related to the resilience of Saint Lucia’s air transport system. However, considering the constraints in financial and human capital resources, an REIP needs to be developed to establish a realistic program for Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 47 implementing solutions, including costs, required resources, funding and financing sources, logical sequencing, and proposed timing. For comprehensive consideration of all potential investment needs and available resources, the REIP should be developed as part of an overall ASSP (figure 7.6). Figure 7.6. Aviation Sector Strategic Plan, including Resilience Enhancement Implementation Plan, Saint Lucia On- irport HIA fir r n w bl prot ction stud n r stud Audit of k f ciliti s nd Volc nic Eruption c b rs curit Pr p r tion Pl n Avi tionS ctor Str t ic Pl n includin R sili nc Enh nc m nt Impl m nt tion Pl n Upd t d ir s rvic Up r d d HIA S m rk tin str t D f ns Str t nd ir tr ffic for c sts ICAO SARP's ps Addition l f cilit ss ssm nt n ds stud Avi tion s ctor busin ss pl n Source: World Bank, in collaboration with study participants. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 48 7.2.5. Detailed Assessment of Threats, Gaps, and Solutions Appendix C includes detailed tables outlining gaps and solutions for each of the top 15 threats in a two-part format: • Threat Assessment. This section describes the threat, including potential impacts, consequences, and timing • Resilience Assessment. This section outlines key resilience gaps and potential solutions for the particular threat. 7.2.6. Categorizing Resilience Solutions To facilitate the development of an REIP, Appendix D includes the full list of solutions identified and categorizes them based on the five pillars of the infrastructure lifecycle: • Systems Planning: Activities related to strategic planning, business planning, and the early stages of infrastructure planning and design • Engineering and Design: Detailed engineering and design activities related to new or upgraded infrastructure • Operations and Maintenance: Activities related to operating and maintaining the asset • Contingency Programming: Activities to enhance the system’s pre-disaster readiness and post- disaster recovery • Institutional Capacity and Coordination: Activities to enhance organizational capacity and improve coordination with other entities to facilitate better management of the entire system Chapter 8 Haiti Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 50 8.1. Country and Sector Context 8.1.1. Country Context Haiti, the third largest Caribbean nation by land area and population (approximately 11 million in 2022), shares the island of Hispaniola with the Dominican Republic. With a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of US$1,272 and a Human Development Index (HDI) ranking of 170 out of 189 countries in 2021, Haiti is one of the world’s poorest economies and regionally, the least politically stable. Nevertheless, there is room for optimism due to its proximity and access to major markets with favorable trade agreements; a young labor force; a dynamic diaspora; and substantial geographic, historical, and cultural assets. Haiti’s economic progress has been hindered by chronic political instability, civil unrest, and gang violence and is among the countries with the highest exposure to multiple natural hazards. Over 93 percent of its surface and more than 96 percent of its population are exposed to two or more hazards5 (World Bank, 2018), and the risks continue to increase with climate change. The human and economic impacts of disasters have been exacerbated by poverty, vulnerable infrastructure, and institutional fragility. Figure 8.1. Map of Natural Disaster Threats in Haiti Source: BRGM, 2017.   Primarily hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, and landslides, but also tsunamis and drought. 5 Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 51 As depicted in figure 8.1, the two Haitian cities hosting the country’s only international airports, Port-au-Prince in the south and Cap-Haïtien on the north coast, are exposed to significant natural disaster risks, including earthquakes, tropical cyclones, flooding, and tsunamis. Notably, Port-au- Prince is situated near the epicenter of the devastating 2010 earthquake, while Cap-Haïtien has previously experienced destructive tsunamis due to seismic activity along the fault lines along Haiti’s northern coast. Haiti has experienced more than 110 disasters between 1972 and 2022, which have claimed an estimated 235,000 lives, affected almost 19 million people6, and resulted in catastrophic material damage. The 2010 earthquake, Hurricane Matthew in 2016, and the August 2021 earthquake are the extreme events that have recently devastated the country. Between 1961 and 2012, hydrometeorological and geological events alone caused damages and losses equivalent to almost two percent of the country’s GDP7. Recently, poverty reduction, economic growth, and resilience building efforts have been severely hampered by a prolonged sociopolitical crisis, including the assassination of Haiti’s president, Jovenel Moise, on July 7, 2021. The crisis began in July 2018 with massive and violent protests against fuel shortages and increased fuel prices, allegations of corruption, and political instability. Gang violence and kidnapping activities surged in 2020, escalating further in 2022, with gang warfare causing large-scale casualties and displacement. Additionally, during a two-month period in the second half of 2022, criminal gangs blockaded the country’s primary fuel terminal and major surrounding roadways, leading to shortages of fuel, electricity8, food, clean water, and medicine; closures of schools; and suspension of waste removal services in some parts of the country. Throughout most of 2022, the main roads linking the capital to the rest of the country were under the control or influence of gangs, which limited or even deprived citizens of access to basic services for many months (United Nations, 2022). These factors contributed to a deadly cholera outbreak, which spread to many parts of the country by late 20229 (UNICEF, 2022). According to the UN, as of November 7, 2022, more than 113,000 people were displaced in Haiti, 85 percent of them as a result of violence in urban areas. In 2022, there was a particularly lethal and damaging heavily armed conflict between rival gangs in Port-au-Prince, displacing thousands and causing significant casualties within a short timeframe. The number of displaced individuals is expected to increase as the cholera outbreak continues. Further, the multidimensional crisis has hindered children’s access to education, with schools remaining closed for the 2022-2023 academic year, affecting approximately 4 million children (UNICEF, 2022). The combination of chronic civil/political unrest, gang violence, frequent natural disasters, extreme poverty, and fragile institutions have resulted in unmet resilience investment needs across all economic sectors, including air transport. Furthermore, climate change is expected to increase the frequency, intensity, and the impacts of extreme weather events, heightening the risk of potential loss and damage and the need for resilience investment. Projected increases in temperature, coupled 6  International Disaster Database website: www.emdat.be 7  The 2010 earthquake destroyed the equivalent of 120 percent of the GDP, and Hurricane Matthew’s estimated damages and losses were equivalent to around 32 percent of the GDP. 8 Diesel generators using imported fuel generate much of Haiti’s electricity due to a weak and unreliable power grid in most of   the country 9 As of 22 November, more than 11,000 suspected cholera cases were reported from all departments. Additionally, there were 951   confirmed cases across six departments (Artibonite, Centre, Grand’Anse, Ouest, Sud, Sud-Est) and 203 deaths. Children under the age of ten represented 35 percent of the suspected cases and 33 percent of confirmed cases. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 52 with decreases in rainfall during the critical summer months of June to August, are likely to intensify drought conditions in the center of the country. Climate change is contributing to greater hurricane intensity and frequency; by 2050, hurricane wind intensities are likely to increase by 5 to 10 percent and precipitation is likely to increase by 25 percent, leading to higher and more severe storm surges10. Figure 8.2. Map of Haiti Source: GISGeography.com, updated November 6, 2022. 8.1.2. Haiti Aviation Sector Overview Like most Caribbean island nations, Haiti relies heavily on air transportation. It is served by two international airports (figure 8.3) – the capital city’s Toussaint Louverture International Airport (PAP) and Cap-Haïtien International Airport (CAP) on the north coast. Air connectivity plays a crucial role in Haiti’s economy, given its insularity. Haiti shares a land border with only one other country (the Dominican Republic), has a weak ground transportation infrastructure, and key roadways are periodically controlled by gangs.   World Bank portal on climate change and DRM: Haiti - Vulnerability (https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/haiti) 10 Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 53 In 2011, air transport accounted for 73 percent of Haiti’s international arrivals and departures. While tourism activity is relatively modest compared to other Caribbean countries, it was experiencing growth prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the current period of civil unrest. In 2015, it had contributed to an estimated 4.2 percent of the GDP (UNDP, 2016). Figure 8.3. Haiti’s Airports Source: Adapted from www.freeworldmaps.net (accessed November 23, 2022). Passenger traffic levels at Port-au-Prince’s PAP, Haiti’s main international airport, had been steadily growing in the years prior to the pandemic and are expected to resume growing once the political and social situation in the country stabilizes. From 2014 to 2018, passenger volumes at PAP (figure 8.4) had grown by 15 percent, from approximately 1.35 million to almost 1.55 million passengers annually, at a compound annual growth rate of 3.5 percent. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 54 Figure 8.4. Port-au-Prince Toussaint Louverture – Passenger Traffic 18,00,000 16,00,000 14,00,000 12,00,000 10,00,000 8,00,000 6,00,000 4,00,000 2,00,000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Annu l P x Q1 P x Source: Data provided by Autorité Aéroportuaire Nationale (AAN). PAP and CAP have consistently operated even during periods of severe civil unrest and gang violence. However, PAP is situated in close proximity to some of the capital’s most troubled neighborhoods, making its access and egress roads vulnerable to gang control, violence, and kidnappings. Numerous reports indicate that arriving passengers have been targeted by gangs while transiting from the airport to their final destination, such as home, hotel, or office. There have also been reports of PAP air traffic controllers being affected by gang violence during their commute to the airport. Furthermore, there are many reports of large numbers of displaced people – perhaps up to 8,000 in November 2022, according to UNICEF, as reported by the New York Times – have been living in a makeshift displacement camp in Hugo Chavez Square next to PAP’s international passenger terminal as a result of the gang warfare earlier in 2022. While these developments have not directly impacted airport operations, they are likely to have hampered passenger demand in 2022 due to heightened safety concerns regarding ground transport near PAP, in addition to broader safety concerns associated with visiting Haiti and the growing health risks posed by the spread of cholera. Haiti’s central body responsible for designing, defining, and implementing the nation’s air transport policy is the Ministry of Public Works, Transport and Communications (Ministère de Travaux Publics, Transport et Communications [MTPTC]). It relies on two primary agencies for this: • the National Office of Civil Aviation (Office National de l’Aviation Civile [OFNAC]) in charge of the organization and regulation of air transport • the National Airport Authority (Autorité Aéroportuaire Nationale [AAN]), which ensures the planning, development, management, and operation of the country’s airport facilities Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 55 Consistent with Haiti’s severe political and economic challenges, the country is at risk of non- compliance with the international standards on safety oversight, operational, and logistical aspects. For example, Haiti scores 1.78 percent in Effective Implementation (EI) of International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO’s) Standards and Recommended Practices (SARPs) with regard to Air Navigation Services, in contrast to the global average of 67.42 percent. The country was red- flagged between 2012 and 2019 under the Universal Safety Oversight Audit Programme (USOAP) of the ICAO11, raising significant concerns about its ability to properly oversee airports, aircraft, and air navigation services. The operational safety of aircraft is also jeopardized by the deteriorating condition of the runway pavement at CAP and the absence of ICAO-required runway end safety areas (RESAs) for both ends of the PAP runway. The air navigation approaches at PAP and CAP are non-precision, limiting arrivals in adverse meteorological conditions and resulting in aircraft arrival delays, periodic diversions to alternate airports, and even flight cancellations. Further, insufficient taxiway infrastructure at PAP results in significant operational challenges and inefficiencies such as greater taxiing distances and increased runway occupancy times (ROT), restricting the overall airfield capacity. PAP infrastructure deficiencies became particularly evident in the immediate aftermath of natural disasters, such as the 2010 earthquake and Hurricane Matthew, when the airfield and aircraft parking apron infrastructure proved insufficient to accommodate surges in air traffic associated with humanitarian aid flights and other disaster relief activity. Figure 8.5 compares the effective implementation of ICAO SARPs for select Caribbean countries against the global average. Figure 8.5. Effective Implementation of ICAO SARPs for Select Countries vs Global Average. 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 n n ns ss nt n s tio tio ns in io tio s isl ni r t hin d cci ion vi rvic rom L Lic Op ort Ac ti t N S rod Or Airw s Air A Inv Glob l Av r H iti Dominic n R piublic S int Luci S int Vinc nt nd th Gr n din s Gr n d Source: ICAO website.   https://www.icao.int/safety/pages/usoap-results.aspx 11 Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 56 Both PAP and CAP are highly vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change. CAP is situated near the sea, just three meters above mean sea level, in a city with a history of devastating tsunamis. Much of the airport is at a lower elevation than the surrounding communities, creating a “bowl” effect that exacerbates drainage challenges and flooding risks. Furthermore, drainage issues at the airport and in the surrounding communities are compounded by solid waste residue from surrounding communities frequently clogging airport drainage systems. While PAP is at a higher elevation (approximately 25-40 meters above mean sea level) and located much further from the sea (3.5 kilometers, as opposed to 500 meters for CAP, as measured from the nearest runway end), it too has to contend with major drainage capacity deficiencies and the associated flooding risks. Moreover, both airports are located in active seismic regions (figure 8.2). PAP and CAP are also exposed to the risks associated with civil unrest and incompatible land uses, as they are located in densely populated urban areas with unchecked development encroaching on airport lands. As discussed, PAP has been particularly exposed to civil unrest and associated gang violence as it has been concentrated in Port-au-Prince, and often in the neighborhoods near PAP and along its key access roadways. Both airports also struggle with periodic aircraft bird strikes due to challenges in managing bird populations in their vicinity, exacerbated by incompatible land uses nearby. Despite these two international airports having received substantial investments in the past decade, such as the rehabilitation of the PAP runway, significant infrastructure deficiencies persist, resulting in operational constraints and inefficiencies, safety concerns, and vulnerability to flooding. Furthermore, there is a recognized need to improve regulatory oversight and management of the Haitian air transport sector, particularly in the areas of safety/security, investment planning, financial performance, climate resilience, and wildlife management. Acknowledging these challenges and the strategic importance of both PAP and CAP, the MTPTC, OFNAC and AAN have recently benefitted from several diagnostic, planning, and investment instruments, including two investments by the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB). The investments include: • The Support for Transport Sector in Haiti IV Project (US$50 million), approved in 2012, which funded the rehabilitation of the PAP runway and airfield ground lighting • The Transport and Departmental Connectivity Project (US$225 million), approved in October 2018, which will finance equipment and the construction of a new air traffic control tower for PAP Additionally, the Government of Haiti (GoH) recently embarked on another investment program for PAP and CAP, known as the Caribbean Regional Air Transport Connectivity Project (CATCOP). The project is financed by the World Bank Group (WBG) as part of a regional program targeted at select Caribbean countries (Grenada, Haiti, and Saint Lucia). It was launched in 2020 with a primary focus on addressing airfield safety and resilience deficiencies. In the case of Haiti, CATCOP includes a US$84 million International Development Association (IDA) grant aimed at improving: • aircraft operational safety and capacity: runway rehabilitation and replacement air traffic control tower at CAP; taxiway and apron expansion and RESAs at PAP • airfield drainage improvements at both airports • technical assistance: development of national aviation sector strategy and organizational capacity building Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 57 While the majority of the CATCOP investment is dedicated to infrastructure and equipment, a significant share has been allocated to technical assistance and capacity building. These efforts are intended to aid the GoH in achieving its long-term development goals and upgrade its management and oversight of the air transport sector. Figures 8.6 and 8.7 present conceptual representations of the PAP and CAP infrastructure investments as part of CATCOP. Figure 8.6. PAP: Conceptual Illustration of CATCOP Airfield Safety and Capacity Investments Source: World Bank Group. Figure 8.7. CAP: Conceptual Illustration of CATCOP Airfield Safety and Capacity Investments Source: World Bank Group. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 58 8.2. Air Transport Sector Resilience Assessment—Haiti 8.2.1. Key Threats to Air Transport Of the nearly 30 distinct identified threats (figure 8.8), 15 key threats were selected as the most critical for Haiti based on study participants’ subjective ratings for threat likelihood and severity. These threats have been included in the subsequent gaps-solutions evaluation (see Appendix G for details on threat risk assessment approach). Civil Unrest, Earthquake, and Incompatible Land Use ranked among the highest risks. Figure 8.8. Threat Risk Matrix – Haiti Threat Risk Severity Catastrophic Major Moderate Minor Insignificant Probability 5 4 3 2 1 Almost Civil / Political Unrest 5 Certain Incompatible Land Earthquake Use Storm Improved Tourism Hurricane Competition Economic Downturn Highly Conflict / War Covid-19 4 Advanced Communications Technologies Likely Sea Level Rise New Pandemic/Epidemic Aircraft Accident(S) Likely 3 Cyber Attack Higher Temperatures Tsunami Volcanic Eruption Possible 2 Dry Season Terrorist Incident Highly 1 Unlikely Source: Line Missing. Note: Color spectrums are illustrative. 8.2.2. Critical Resilience Gaps Critical resilience gaps associated with the 15 key threats were identified (table 8.1) based on their individual importance in relation to a major threat or their frequency of identification across many threats. For a comprehensive approach, gaps were identified and listed even if there were plans to address them through CATCOP or otherwise. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 59 Table 8.1. Critical Resilience Gaps Associated with Key Threats Critical Resilience Description Gaps Infrastructure, Insufficiently resilient airport infrastructure: Engineering, and • Some key facilities at PAP and CAP are temporary, such as the CAP terminal and air traffic Operations control towers (ATCT) at both PAP and CAP • Many facilities are likely to require upgrades to handle risks associated with earthquakes, high winds, flooding, and extreme heat • Drainage capacity at both airports is inadequate, especially considering the drainage volume and type (for example, solid waste) from surrounding and encroaching communities, which frequently clogs/overwhelms airport systems. These deficiencies increase risks associated with hurricanes, storms, storm surges, and for CAP, sea level rise • The CAP runway pavement is deteriorating, rendering it more vulnerable to flooding, seismic activity, and extreme heat • Inadequate CAP sea defenses increases risk exposure for all facilities • Key access/egress roadways for PAP and CAP are highly vulnerable to earthquake-related damage Multiple safety-related deficiencies and challenges: • Poor ICAO safety audit results • Lack of RESAs at PAP • Deteriorating CAP runway pavement • Periodic aircraft bird strikes at both airports; lack of up-to-date wildlife management program • Incompatible land uses surrounding both airports that increase risks of bird strikes, runway incursions, and other hazards for arriving/departing aircraft operations • Armed conflict between rival gangs near PAP that pose risk to aircraft operations, passengers, and employees • Lack of state-of-the-art aircraft search and rescue capability • Lack of state-of-the-art air traffic management systems and air navigation aids Multiple security-related deficiencies and challenges: • PAP and CAP are located in densely populated areas prone to civil unrest and gang-related violence, with PAP being in a particularly high-risk area • The perimeters of PAP and CAP are difficult to secure due to nearby urbanization, lack of security buffers around airports, weak security fencing, insufficient security staffing, inadequate lighting (fence line and community) and other security equipment/systems, and inadequate perimeter monitoring • Lack of automated/advanced airport access security systems • Key access roadways for PAP and CAP are hard to secure and vulnerable during periods of unrest or conflict; roadways near PAP are highly vulnerable with many reports of violence, kidnappings, and robberies along routes to/from the airport • Cybersecurity software, systems, and training may be outdated due to increased reliance on work-from-home staff and constantly evolving threats, such as the recent surge in ransomware attacks Airport capacity limitations: • Limited airfield and apron capacity at PAP can constrain post-disaster emergency/relief flight activity, as was seen in the aftermath of the 2010 earthquake • Other airports in Haiti (beyond PAP and CAP) have significant capacity and capability limitations (runway length, pavement strength), impeding their ability to handle emergency relief or other flights in case of PAP and/or CAP becoming temporarily unavailable • Many regions in Haiti are not served by a commercial service airport, or are only served by an airport with severely limited capacity/capability Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 60 Critical Resilience Description Gaps Insufficient redundancy for critical infrastructure and systems • Lack of redundant energy supply (beyond emergency generators) and communication systems heightens vulnerability to natural disasters and civil unrest at both airports • Lack of alternative airports near PAP and CAP to provide a degree of redundancy if either or both airports become temporarily unavailable Business, Significant economic resource constraints in the national aviation sector: Management, • Small and unstable economy; region’s poorest country and Governance • Limited government funds and borrowing capacity; high dependence on foreign aid • Limited aviation sector revenue generation capacity due to the small economy and relatively low air traffic levels • Ongoing political uncertainty, civil unrest, and gang violence further limit traffic levels and revenue generation Aviation sector financial performance is not optimized, further constraining capacity to invest and handle disruptions: • Untapped performance optimization, especially with respect to non-aeronautical revenue generation • Insufficiently diversified revenue base and overdependence on aeronautical charges • Diversion of some aeronautical revenues to other non-aviation government priorities • High fixed operating costs (partially an inherent characteristic of international airports) Safety and security-related deficiencies: • Lack of airport environs land use plans for PAP and CAP that clearly define acceptable land uses and activities for the areas surrounding each airport, considering existing and future airport development • Inadequate zoning regulations and land use enforcement in the areas surrounding PAP and CAP results in greater challenges in securing airports and ensuring the safety of people and aircraft operations • The long-standing approach of ignoring incompatible activities and land uses (for example, construction of residences along the airport fence line and kite flying near aircraft approach and departure paths) makes implementing a new land use compatibility regime much more challenging • Insufficient law enforcement capacity to secure airport perimeter and key airport access roadways during periods of acute unrest or major assault • Insufficient definition of crisis response procedures addressing the full range of aircraft operational safety risks • Insufficient simulation exercises of aircraft accident/incident response scenarios. Simulations are a critical preparation tool, considering the requirement for a speedy, multi-disciplinary response to a dangerous and dynamic event • Potentially insufficient organizational priority given to cybersecurity in the areas of skills, roles/responsibilities definition, budget allocation, training commitment Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 61 Critical Resilience Description Gaps Incomplete preparation for managing emergencies: • Out-of-date and incomplete emergency operations plan for airports; plan needs to address all key risk scenarios related to civil unrest • Lack of a CAP tsunami warning system and an up-to-date evacuation plan • Lack of a protection program for vital air traffic control and other key operational equipment in case of a major hurricane/storm • Lack of formal agreement between AAN and utilities (for example, power, water, communications) for handling post-event recovery efforts and ensuring business continuity • Lack of clarity on roles and responsibilities for drainage-related maintenance and post- storm clearing activities, especially at the interfaces between airports and surrounding communities Lack of an up-to-date strategic plan for the aviation sector: • Lack of an up-to-date national aviation sector strategic plan addressing capacity, safety/ security, resilience, environment, management, air service development, business/finance, operations, and governance • Lack of up-to-date (a) airport development plans, business plans, and safety/security plans and (b) air traffic management improvement plans, all developed in the context of the strategic plan 8.2.3. Priority Resilience Solutions Given the numerous resilience threats and gaps identified during the study, many resilience- enhancing solutions were identified. However, rather than simply compiling a laundry list of actions, the study identified the solutions that offer the greatest benefit, as described in this section. To take this effort beyond this study, it is recommended that a Resilience Enhancement Implementation Plan (REIP) be prepared. This plan should include a cost-benefit assessment of the identified solutions and a realistic implementation timeline that considers resource availability (for example, funding and staffing) and the most logical sequencing of activities. The first and most important step for Haiti to improve air transport resilience is the establishment of a high-performance airport management organization with resilience embedded in its mission. This step will lead to the following outcomes: • improved risk awareness, assessments, and quantification • improved business planning, financial performance, and investment capacity • improved investment prioritization, facility planning, design, construction, and maintenance • improved adaptive capacity with new skills, knowledge, and resources As previously noted, instead of solely focusing on infrastructure-based efforts for resilience building and climate adaptation, it is advisable to adopt a holistic approach and upgrade the organization to embed resilience into its mission, while optimizing its performance. The priority solutions identified in table 8.2 include a broad range of measures that align with this holistic approach. Furthermore, to provide a comprehensive view, priority solutions were identified and listed even if there are plans in place to address them through CATCOP. Solutions not yet assigned an implementation mechanism were categorized as to be determined (TBD). Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 62 Table 8.2. Priority Solutions: Short Term and Medium Term Short Medium Category Priority Solutions Term Term Infrastructure, Make critical investments in infrastructure and systems: Engineering, and • Upgrade PAP and CAP airfield drainage capacity X Operations • Rehabilitate CAP runway pavement X • Construct permanent/resilient CAP air traffic control tower X • Build RESAs for both ends of the PAP runway X • Implement automatic dependent surveillance-broadcast (ADS-B) for X PAP and CAP • Expand PAP taxiway and apron capacity to meet post-disaster X demand surges • Upgrade perimeter security systems for PAP and CAP * • Upgrade wildlife management program/systems for PAP and CAP X Conduct studies, analyses, and audits to define other critical infrastructure and system investments: • In collaboration with the ASSP (see Business, Management, and Governance section in this table), prepare 20-year+ master plans for X PAP and CAP, identifying a phased, demand-responsive program of infrastructure development for each airport • In collaboration with the ASSP and airport master plans, conduct gap assessment for ICAO SARPs compliance and develop an upgrade * program • In collaboration with the ASSP and airport master plans, develop safety and security plans for PAP and CAP. These plans should * identify and prioritize investments and operational adjustments. Additionally, assess potential infrastructure and system investments and land use policy changes that would be cost-justified based on risk reduction and operating cost savings • Conduct infrastructure vulnerability audits for key PAP and CAP airport facilities related to earthquakes and hurricane winds; identify * any capacity deficiencies and recommend upgrade program • In collaboration with the ASSP, evaluate potential upgrades to the nation’s air traffic management systems and aircraft search and * rescue systems • As part of the ASSP, identify the necessary improvements to other airports to improve airport system redundancy in case PAP and/or CAP become unavailable X • Prepare a long-term sea defense strategy for CAP in coordination with the GoH and the commune of Cap-Haïtien * • Conduct cybersecurity audits for AAN and OFNAC and prepare a plan for upgrading systems, procedures, and skills, as appropriate * • Develop a COVID-19 response and recovery strategy for PAP and CAP X • As part of the ASSP, conduct a business case and feasibility assessment for the development of on-airport renewable energy X sources; coordinate any facility and/or land use implications with the airport master plan studies • As part of the ASSP, identify airport development needs and opportunities across the country to unlock the untapped potential of X areas currently not well-served by aviation Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 63 Short Medium Category Priority Solutions Term Term Business, Document and maintain an aviation sector strategy and associated Management, and plans to guide the evolution of the aviation sector in the coming years: Governance • Prepare an ASSP addressing the development, improvement, and X optimization of Haiti’s aviation sector. It should address key airport infrastructure, air navigation systems, governance, regulation, operation, finances, environment, and resilience • Develop a REIP that transforms recommended resilience solutions into a realistic, phased, implementation program consistent with the * ASSP Optimize the financial performance of the aviation sector: • As part of the ASSP, develop an aviation sector business and financial plan targeted at improving AAN financial management and X performance, such as reduced dependence on aeronautical charges, enhanced non-aeronautical revenue, reduced fixed costs, retention of aviation revenues within the aviation system, debt restructuring, and expansion of funding/financing sources. Ensure the airport master plans include a realistic program of investments; explore opportunities to leverage private sector capital and human resources, as appropriate • Prepare an updated air service marketing strategy that reflects * the benefits of new/upgraded facilities and offers an in-depth assessment of the markets most suitable for new or enhanced air service Complete preparations for better management of emergencies: • Prepare an updated emergency operations plan for each airport, * addressing the full range of potential natural disasters as well as civil unrest and armed conflict scenarios * • Prepare an updated tsunami-specific CAP evacuation plan • Procure business interruption and ransomware coverage insurance, * if necessary • Establish additional contingent emergency response funding * mechanisms • Establish a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) among AAN, OFNAC, GoH, and local communities, defining specific roles * and responsibilities for the scenarios outlined in the emergency operations plan. This should include the response to a major attack targeting the airport or actions that disrupt key access roadways • Establish MoUs among AAN, OFNAC, and key utilities related to post- * event recovery and business continuity during periods of acute unrest • Prepare an up-to-date and complete manual of crisis response * procedures related to aircraft incidents and accidents • Conduct routine simulations with all relevant services (police, fire and rescue, airport operations, air traffic control) of response to different * types of accidents/incidents • Prepare a plan for the storage of key equipment, including redundant basic equipment, in a secure location to facilitate a quick restart of * operations post disaster Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 64 Short Medium Category Priority Solutions Term Term Improve the management of interfaces between airports and communities: • Develop airport environs land use plans for PAP and CAP that clearly * define acceptable land uses and activities for the areas surrounding each airport, considering existing and planned future airport development • Work with GoH and local communities to (a) include the airport environs land use plans in the appropriate city comprehensive land use plans and (b) establish appropriate zoning in areas surrounding * PAP and CAP and ensure coordination in development approvals and enforcement activities • Assess existing incompatible uses/activities in the vicinities of PAP and CAP and prioritize mitigation actions based on a risk and cost * analysis. Progressively mitigate existing incompatible uses and activities such as enforcement actions, property purchases • Improve coordination and management of flooding risks (including post-storm clearing activities) in the immediate vicinity of PAP and * CAP and reduce solid waste residue flowing into the airports • Identify critical airport access corridors and develop a plan in coordination with GoH and local governments for appropriate infrastructure investments such as in walls, barricades, and gates, * Establish operational protocols to maintain security and the free flow of traffic during periods of acute unrest/conflict • Coordinate with communities surrounding PAP and CAP to establish specific roles and responsibilities (and document in the form of an MOU) for the scenarios outlined in the emergency operations * plan, including the response to a major assault targeting the airport. Maintain continuous coordination with communities as scenarios evolve Better leverage the aviation sector to promote national economic development opportunities: • Coordinate with the GoH to identify and promote tourism opportunities in stable/secure regions of Haiti with the greatest potential. Ensure ongoing security and provision of essential services * for these regions and target infrastructure investment and air service marketing activities accordingly • Consider leveraging private sector resources to increase funding/ financing capacity and accelerate investments for the most promising airport development opportunities that offer broad * economic benefits Improve aviation sector governance and management: • Develop organizational transformation strategies for AAN and OFNAC to (a) embed resilience in their mission, priorities, structures, * and processes and (b) facilitate implementation of the ASSP • Define any AAN and OFNAC organizational refinements needed to improve aviation sector resilience and performance, including reporting lines, roles/responsibilities, specific recruiting needs, training needs, and budget allocations * Source: World Bank in collaboration with study participants. Note: *: Implementation arrangements to be determined. X: Under implementation through CATCOP. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 65 8.2.4. Development of a Resilience Enhancement Implementation Plan This study has identified the major threats, critical gaps, and priority solutions related to the resilience of Haiti’s air transport system. However, due to constrained financial and human capital resources, a REIP should be developed to establish a realistic program for implementing solutions, taking into account the costs, resources required, funding and financing sources, logical sequencing, and proposed timing. The REIP should be developed in collaboration with the ASSP (figure 8.8) to ensure the comprehensive consideration of all potential investment needs as well as costs and financial resources. Figure 8.9. Aviation Sector Strategic Plan including Resilience Enhancement Implementation Plan – Haiti COVID-19 On- irport r spons nd Avi tion s ctor r n w bl r cov r str t busin ss pl n n r stud Audits of f ciliti s, dr in PAP/CAP s st ms, nd m st r pl ns c b rs curit Avi tion S ctor Upd t d CAP Str t ic Pl n nd PAP/CAP S D f ns R sili nc s f t / Str t Enh nc m nt s curit pl ns Impl m nt tion Pl n ICAO SARP's Air tr ffic ps ss ss- m n m nt nd m nt s rch/r scu n ds ss ssm nt Economic Or ni tion l d v lopm nt d v lopm nt Airport s st m opportuniti s n ds r dund nc ss ssm nt ss ssm nt Source: World Bank in collaboration with study participants. Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 66 8.2.5. Detailed Assessment of Threats, Gaps, and Solutions Appendix E includes detailed tables outlining gaps and solutions for each of the top 15 threats in a two-part format: • Threat Assessment. This describes the threat including potential impacts, consequences, and timing. • Resilience Assessment. This outlines key resilience gaps and potential solutions for the particular threat. 8.2.6. Alternative Categorization of Resilience Solutions To facilitate the development of a REIP, Appendix F includes the full list of identified solutions and categorizes them based on the five pillars of the infrastructure lifecycle: • Systems Planning: Activities related to strategic planning, business planning, and the early stages of infrastructure planning and design • Engineering and Design: Detailed engineering and design activities related to new or upgraded infrastructure • Operations and Maintenance: Activities related to operating and maintaining the asset • Contingency Programming – activities to enhance the system’s pre-disaster readiness and post- disaster recovery • Institutional Capacity and Coordination: Activities to enhance organizational capacity and improve coordination with other entities to facilitate better management of the entire system Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 67 References Bureau of Geological and Mining Research (BRGM). 2017. 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Enhancing Air Transport Resilience in the Caribbean 69 Image Credit Page No Source ix Adobe Stock. https://stock.adobe.com/in/images/passenger-plane-fly-up-over-take- off-runway-from-airport/44944259?prev_url=detail 1 Adobe Stock. https://stock.adobe.com/in/images/airplane-wing-flying-plane-jet-over- tropical-islands-in-ocean-view-from-window-at-sunset-in-summer/615338975 5 Adobe Stock. https://stock.adobe.com/in/images/airplane-at-the-terminal-gate-in- international-airport/73819585?prev_url=detail 7 Adobe Stock. https://stock.adobe.com/in/images/apron-and-aircraft/99116867?prev_ url=detail 12 Adobe Stock. https://stock.adobe.com/in/images/wing-of-an-airplane-flying-above- the-punta-cana-dominican-republic/320738730?prev_url=detail 17 Adobe Stock. https://stock.adobe.com/in/images/aerial-view-of-airport-on-grande- terre-guadeloupe-lesser-antilles-caribbean/492037989 21 https://caribbeanauthority.com/easy-cost-savings-ways-to-fly-from-the-uk-to- grenada/ 27 Adobe Stock. https://stock.adobe.com/in/images/airplane-flying-over-tropical-palm- tree-and-sunset-sky-abstract-background-copy-space-of-business-summer-vacation- and-travel-adventure-concep/652213022?prev_url=detail 31 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Bishop_International_Airport#/media/ File:Maurice_Bishop_International_Airport_Grenada.jpg 36 https://www.tripsavvy.com/airports-in-st-lucia-4844169 40 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hewanorra_International_Airport#/media/ File:Hewanorra_International_Airport_-_panoramio_(1).jpg 44 Adobe Stock. https://stock.adobe.com/in/images/saint-lucia-tropical-island-caribbean- sea-castries-harbor-airplane-and-airport/145034500 49 https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Aerial_view_of_PAP_2010-01-26_1.JPG