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Washington, DC: World Bank. © World Bank Cover photo courtesy of FAO, Afghanistan Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan FAO/Afghanistan Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations IX Acknowledgments XI Executive Summary XII 1. Introduction XVIII 2. Methodological Approach 6 Step 1: Background analysis and data collection 7 Step 2: Identification of key issues and investment priorities 7 Step 3: Screening and development of investment packages 8 Step 4: Scaling up and assessing investment implications 8 3. Agrifood Systems and Rural Livelihoods in Afghanistan 10 Wheat 11 Rice 12 Pulses 13 Horticulture 13 Livestock 15 Poppy cultivation 16 Women in agriculture 17 Agroecological-livelihood zones for targeting food systems investments 18 Land degradation 19 Land tenure 21 Water resources 22 4. Vulnerability and Projected Impacts of Climate Change 24 Climate change impacts on agroecological zones 25 Climate change impacts on cropland suitability and yields of wheat 26 Climate change impacts on cropland suitability and yields of rice 26 Climate change impacts on cropland suitability and yields of potato 28 Climate change impacts on cropland suitability and yields of citrus 29 Climate change impacts on rangeland production 31 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan V 5. Interventions for Climate-Resilient and Inclusive Food Systems 34 Agribusiness cluster development: Opportunities and investment requirements 35 Private capital mobilization 37 Agricultural research and development 38 Stakeholder consultations and validation 39 Adaptation phases for long-term resilience of the food systems 40 6. The Costs of Action, Inaction, and Investment Packages 44 Cost of action 45 Cost of inaction 46 Investment packages 47 Jobs creation by the action plan 53 Impacts of the CSAAP on vulnerable populations 55 Climate mitigation impact of the action plan 56 7. Conclusion: Rolling Out the Action Plan 58 A changing operating environment for development 59 Strategic role of the private sector in the CSAAP implementation 59 Moving from scale to leverage: A shift toward co-financing and shared delivery 60 Creating opportunities for women and youth through private sector engagement 61 Unlocking private sector potential through a five-pillar strategy for resilient growth 62 References 63 Annex 1: Climate Change Impacts on Production and Cropland Suitability in Afghanistan 65 Annex 2: CSA Investment Options Prioritization Tables 66 Annex 3: Agribusiness Clusters 85 Annex 4: Assumptions for the CSA Investment Costs 89 Annex 5: Methodology for Cost of Inaction 93 Climate-smart agriculture 93 Restoring degraded natural landscapes 93 Improved water management 93 Agribusiness development 95 VI Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Annex 6: Assumptions for Jobs Creation 100 Annex 7: Engaging the Private Sector to Co-finance and Implement the CSAAP 103 List of Tables Table 1: Agriculture and Food Security in Afghanistan Compared to South Asia and Middle East and North Africa  3 Table 2: Top Exported Horticultural Products 2020–2023 (US$, millions)  14 Table 3: Role Allocation in Livestock Production Activities  17 Table 4: Structure of Rural Household Population in Different Agroclimatic Zones of the Country  20 Table 5: Surface Water Volume in Five Afghan River Basins  23 Table 6: Climate Change Impacts on Suitability of Cropland for Wheat  26 Table 7: Climate Change Impacts on Attainable Wheat Yields  27 Table 8: Climate Change Impacts on Wheat Production Potential  27 Table 9: Climate Change Impacts on Suitable Cropland and Yields for Paddy Rice  28 Table 10: Climate Change Impacts on Rice Production Potential and Net Irrigation Requirements  28 Table 11: Climate Change Impacts on Cropland Suitability and Yields for Potato  29 Table 12: Climate Change Impacts on Potato Production Potential and Net Irrigation Requirements  29 Table 13: Climate Change Impacts on Suitability of Cropland for Citrus  30 Table 14: Climate Change Impacts on Citrus Production Potential  31 Table 15: Land Suitable for Grazing in Current Rangelands  31 Table 16: Potential Biomass Production and Yield of Current Rangeland  32 Table 17: Impacts of Climate Change on Rangeland Production Potential  32 Table 18: Prioritization Criteria for Investment Packages  36 Table 19: Adaptation Phases toward Ensuring Long-Term Resilience of Afghanistan’s Food Systems  42 Table 20: CSA Investment Costs  46 Table 21: Costs of Action Versus Inaction for the Action Plan  47 Table 22: Jobs Generated by the Action Plan (millions)  53 Table 23: Impact of the Job Creation on Women (millions)  54 Table 24: Impact of the Job Creation on Youth (millions)  55 Table 25: Carbon Balance Estimate for the Action Plan (tCO2-e)  56 Table 3.1: Investment Requirements for the Agribusiness Clusters (US$, millions)  86 Table 5.1: Estimated Costs of Not Implementing CSA in Afghanistan  94 Table 5.2: ESVs of Natural Vegetation  94 Table 5.3: Cost of Inaction for Improved Water Management  95 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan VII Table 5.4: Estimated Economic Benefits of Investing in Agribusiness Clusters Development  96 Table 6.1: Assumptions Used for Estimating Jobs Creation Across Agricultural Value Chains  100 Table 6.2: Cereals Value Chain  101 Table 6.3: Horticulture Value Chain  101 Table 6.4: Livestock Value Chain  102 Table 7.1: Enablers for PPP Success in Afghanistan  103 List of Figures Figure 1: Evolution of Afghanistan Population in Acute Food Insecurity, 2019–2025 (millions)  2 Figure 2: Population Employed in Agriculture and the Sector’s Contribution to GDP (%)  12 Figure 3: Characteristics of the Agroecological-Livelihood Zones for CSA Targeting  19 VIII Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Acronyms and Abbreviations  Acronym Definition AAIP Afghanistan Agricultural Inputs Project ACAL Afghanistan Chamber of Agriculture and Livestock AEZ Agroecological Zone AI Artificial Intelligence AMD Afghanistan Meteorology Department ARAZI Afghanistan Independent Land Authority ARIA Agricultural Research Institute of Afghanistan BCM Billion cubic meters CSA Climate-Smart Agriculture CSAAP Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan DIEM Data in Emergency Monitoring DM Dry Matter EFSP Emergency Food Security Project ESV Ecosystem Services Value FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAOSTAT Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics FFS Farmer Field School FSN Food Security and Nutrition FTE Full-Time Equivalent GBV Gender-Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas HMRB Harirod-Murghab River Basin HRB Helmand River Basin IA Irrigation Association IDP Internally Displaced Person IFC International Finance Corporation IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IOM International Organization for Migration IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRDP Irrigation Restoration and Development Project ITA Interim Taliban Administration KRB Kabul River Basin LSU Livestock Unit MAIL Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency NC National Collection NEPA National Environmental Protection Agency NGO Nongovernmental Organization NRB Northern River Basin NRM Natural Resources Management PARB Panj-Amu River Basin PPP Public-Private Partnership PPQD Plant Protection and Quarantine Directorate R&D Research and Development Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan IX Acronym Definition RCP Representative Concentration Pathway SGR Strategic Grain Reserve SMEs Small and Medium Enterprises SSP Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SWI System of Wheat Intensification TEEB The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USDA United States Department of Agriculture WHO World Health Organization WUA Water User Association X Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Acknowledgments  This report was prepared by a core team led by Ademola Braimoh (Senior Agricultural Economist), Amanullah Alamzai (Senior Agricultural Economist), and Najum Najumuddin (Agricultural Specialist). It draws upon background data collection and analysis by Jim Hancock (Natural Resources Officer, FAO), with support from Andry Rajaoberison (Climate Analyst, FAO), Steven Watkins (Agriculture Officer, FAO), Hannah Fried (Economist, FAO) and Ann-Christelle Ott (Economist, FAO). We acknowledge the support of colleagues in the Afghanistan Climate Resilience Programmatic Advisory Services and Analytics (PASA) team including Olivier Lavinal (Senior Social Development Specialist) Christine Heumesser (Senior Agriculture Economist), Zhimin Mao (Senior Water Resources Specialist), and Yunziyi Lang (Disaster Risk Management Specialist. Ama Esson (Program Assistant), Humaira Nazari (Program Assistant), and Maryam Noori (Team Associate) provided exceptional administrative and logistical support. Their contributions were also crucial in organizing stakeholder consultations that served as critical inputs to the study. The report also benefited from extensive information gathering, timely feedback and support provided by the FAO country team led by Kaustubh Devale and several officers from FAO technical divisions guided by the FAO Representative Richard Trenchard. Overall, the report was produced under the guidance of Faris Hadad-Zervos (Division Director for Afghanistan); Dina Umali-Deininger (Regional Practice Director, Planet South Asia); and Gayatri Acharya (Practice Manager, SSAA2). Special thanks go to Meskerem Brhane (Regional Practice Director, Planet MENAAP), Rabih Karaky (Practice Manager, SMNAG), Hadia Samaha (Operations Manager), Nkulumo Zinyengere (Senior Climate Finance Specialist), Muddassir Shafique (Senior Operations Officer, IFC), Ranjan Samantaray (Senior Agriculture Specialist), Massoud Wardak (Associate Operations Officer, IFC), Zacharey Austin Carmichael (Senior Economist), Wagma Mohmand (Senior Country Officer, IFC), and Artavazd Hakobyan (Senior Agriculture Economist). We thank the technical staff of the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock for their inputs during the various stakeholder consultations including Noor Agha Khalil Safi (Head of Agricultural Education), Mirwais Kyogyani (Technical Advisor), Mohammad Arif Jawadi (Senior Climate Change and Environment Specialist), Khalilurrahman Omar (Senior Program and Planning Specialist), Salar Akbar (Chief Engineer, Irrigation Directorate), Abdul Ghafar Sediqi (Director of Horticulture), Mohammad Ayob Ayadi (Director of Livestock), and Akbar Sherzad (Livestock Specialist). We also appreciate the contributions of the following for their contributions to stakeholder consultations: Saifullah Jawher (Dean Faculty of Agriculture, Kabul University), Abdullah Arabzai (Assistant Professor, Department of Environment, Kabul University), Mohibullah Bahar (Head of Adaptation to Climate Change, Kabul University), Qais Zahire (Humanitarian Program Manager, Action Aid), Rohullah Karimi (Central Region Manager, Rural Rehabilitation Association for Afghanistan), Sameera Noori (Director of Citizens Organization for Advocacy and Resilience [COAR]), Rohullah Amin (Director of Climate Change, National Environmental Protection Agency), Mohibullah Bahar (Head of Adaptation to Climate Change, National Environmental Protection Agency), Salma Yusofzai (Head, Afghanistan Women Chamber of Commerce and Industry), Niamtullah Rahimi (Future Generation Afghanistan), and Somya Popalzai-Head (Head of Research Division Afghanistan Metrological Directorate). Finally, we are grateful for the generous support from the Afghanistan Resilience Trust Fund and Climate Support Facility for this analytical work. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan XI Executive Summary  1. Afghanistan stands at a critical crossroads. As of early 2025, nearly 15 million people are facing acute food insecurity, with 3.1 million already in emergency conditions. These figures are not just numbers; they reflect a deepening crisis of hunger, collapsing rural livelihoods, and systemic fragility that threaten the country’s long-term stability. The situation is particularly dire for vulnerable groups, with over 1.2 million pregnant and breastfeeding women and 3.5 million children under five suffering from acute malnutrition. This is not simply the consequence of isolated shocks but the result of a complex web of climate-induced stress, economic contraction, gender exclusion, and institutional disintegration. In this context, the Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan (CSAAP) emerges as a vital instrument to address urgent needs while laying the foundation for resilient, inclusive, and sustainable rural development. Climate change impacts and the need for investing in resilience 2. Climate change has become a force multiplier of vulnerability across Afghanistan. The country is among the most climate vulnerable in the world and one of the least equipped to adapt. The frequency of droughts has doubled, from once every three years to once every other year, while floods regularly devastate pastures, farmland, homes, and infrastructure. Afghanistan’s surface water availability is expected to decline by up to 26 percent by 2030, further constraining already fragile irrigation systems and reducing crop yields. Land degradation is widespread, with approximately 15 million ha of rangeland severely degraded, while deforestation has wiped out 70 percent of forest cover in some provinces. These pressures not only threaten the environment but also drive conflict over increasingly scarce resources, particularly water and pasture, exacerbating intercommunal tensions. Climate projections show significant declines in potential productivity for key staples such as wheat and rice, with national average wheat yields projected to drop by 6–13 percent by the 2080s. Rice productivity is also projected to be negatively affected by up to 3 percent by the 2050s, and by up to 14 percent by the 2080s, with net irrigation requirements in major rice- growing areas increasing by 42 percent in the central region and, 19 percent in the southeastern and west-central regions by the 2080s. These trends underscore the urgency of investing in climate-resilient crop varieties, improved agronomic practices, and water management systems to buffer against the adverse impacts of climate change on staple food production. 3. Conversely, the CSAAP identifies emerging opportunities for horticultural crops, which may benefit from certain aspects of climate change, such as longer growing seasons and expanded agroecological zones in some regions. If supported with adequate investment in infrastructure, research, and market access, horticulture could play a pivotal role in diversifying rural livelihoods, enhancing nutrition, and increasing agricultural income. This dual perspective— managing risks to staples while capitalizing on opportunities in horticulture—forms a critical pillar of the CSAAP’s strategic approach to building a more resilient and productive food system in Afghanistan. 4. The choice between investing in resilience or responding with humanitarian aid represents a dilemma in the development and the humanitarian nexus. While aid provides urgent relief, over-reliance can foster dependency, whereas underinvestment in resilience increases vulnerability to future shocks. Striking a balance requires assessing investment opportunities, avoidable agricultural losses, and the importance of local food production for nutrition and food security. The CSAAP provides a structured framework to address these challenges by stabilizing food production, boosting rural incomes, and building long-term climate resilience. Its investment areas—food systems resilience, horticulture, livestock, agribusiness, and rural transformation—tackle systemic bottlenecks such as poor seeds, inefficient irrigation, and weak markets while embedding gender inclusion and climate-smart technologies throughout. Rather than focusing on short-term fixes, the plan promotes sustainable, evidence-based, and inclusive transformation of the agrifood system. XII Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Analytical approach for the CSAAP 5. The development of the CSAAP followed a structured four-step methodology to ensure alignment with national priorities, technical rigor, and stakeholder ownership. Step 1 focused on analyzing Afghanistan’s national development plans, climate strategies, and agricultural policies, establishing climate-smart agriculture (CSA) as a central pillar of resilience building and rural transformation. Step 2 involved a detailed diagnostic of climate risks and vulnerabilities using agroclimatic modeling, land use projections, and productivity analyses. This helped assess the potential impacts of climate change on crops, livestock, and water systems while identifying opportunities for horticultural expansion and agribusiness development. Step 3 prioritized CSA options using a multicriteria framework that assessed each intervention’s impact on productivity, resilience, and emissions. This phase combined technical analysis with extensive consultations to ensure the proposed solutions were context specific and inclusive, addressing the needs of women, youth, and vulnerable communities. Step 4 synthesized these findings into investment packages and a strategic implementation roadmap. It also examined policy, institutional, and financing reforms needed to scale CSA solutions, with a strong emphasis on private sector engagement, market access, and blended finance. By integrating public and private roles, the CSAAP presents a coordinated and actionable plan for climate-resilient agricultural transformation. Climate-smart investment packages 6. After identifying the key interventions needed to transform the national food systems, the CSAAP is organized into five integrated investment packages aimed at tackling Afghanistan’s severe food insecurity, economic instability, and climate vulnerability. These packages provide a comprehensive framework for transforming Afghanistan’s agrifood systems through targeted, scalable, and inclusive interventions. Each investment area responds to specific structural gaps ranging from staple food resilience and high-value crop commercialization to livestock productivity, agribusiness development, and holistic rural transformation. Together, they aim to boost productivity, generate employment, reduce emissions, and build lasting resilience across Afghanistan’s diverse agroecological zones, while leveraging the power of public-private partnerships (PPPs) and locally driven solutions. Investment Package 1: Food Systems Resilience Project 7. This package focuses on strengthening the resilience and productivity of Afghanistan’s staple crop systems, particularly cereals. It promotes the use of climate-resilient seeds, sustainable land and water management, and agricultural mechanization to improve yields and reduce vulnerability to climate shocks. The project supports improved on-farm practices, rehabilitation of small-scale irrigation, and the reduction of postharvest losses. It also integrates legume- based cropping systems to diversify production and improve soil health and household nutrition. The package enhances national food security by improving cereal self-sufficiency and strengthening local milling industries. Investment Package 2: Horticulture Commercialization Project 8. Targeting Afghanistan’s high-value fruit and vegetable sectors, this package aims to improve the efficiency and competitiveness of horticultural value chains. Investments are concentrated in high-potential areas with comparative advantage in production and market access. Key interventions include improved extension services, agrologistics infrastructure such as cold storage and solar drying, and support to women’s nutrition gardens. The package fosters crop diversification, supports nursery development, strengthens farmer cooperatives, and encourages export-oriented production. It also emphasizes the role of the private sector in expanding processing, transport, and marketing capacity. Investment Package 3: Livestock Development Project 9. This package strengthens livestock-based livelihoods and protein supply, especially in rural and pastoral areas. It targets cattle, sheep, goats, and poultry systems, with a focus on improving breed quality, feed availability, and Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan XIII animal health services. The package also supports women-led livestock activities and the expansion of dairy and poultry enterprises near urban markets. Pastoralist communities such as the Kuchi are supported through improved rangeland management and migration route protection. By building veterinary networks, women’s extension services, and fodder cooperatives, the project enhances both resilience and commercialization across the livestock sector. Investment Package 4: Agribusiness Development Project 10. Designed to strengthen rural enterprise ecosystems, this package focuses on enabling business development, access to finance, and market linkages across agrifood value chains. It includes support for business environment reforms, enterprise incubation, and skills development for youth and women. It promotes the creation of agro-processing zones, packaging and aggregation centers, and digital platforms for market access. Key components include blended finance instruments, Islamic financial services, and PPPs that crowd in private capital. The package serves as a bridge between rural producers and urban markets, unlocking opportunities for job creation and inclusive growth. Investment Package 5: Afghanistan Rural Transformation Project 11. This integrated package synthesizes elements from the other four to promote holistic, area-based rural development. It includes territorial investments in land tenure reform, participatory agricultural research, farmer field schools (FFSs), agroweather and market information systems, and resilient infrastructure. The package supports cooperative strengthening, financial inclusion, and improved service delivery through local institutions. It prioritizes fragile and underserved regions, supporting women and youth as key agents of change. By building the foundations for climate- smart rural economies, this package aims to catalyze long-term resilience, equity, and food system transformation across Afghanistan. Investment costs and costs of inaction 12. Transforming Afghanistan’s agriculture and food systems into a more productive, resilient, and climate-adaptive sector over the next decade will require a targeted and well-coordinated investment of US$7.4 billion. This level of financing, structured across five strategic pillars of CSAAP, is not only economically justified but also represents an urgent and strategic imperative to prevent escalating future losses, support recovery, and protect vulnerable rural livelihoods. The five investment pillars include Climate-Smart Agriculture (US$3.1 billion), Integrated Natural Resources Management (US$2.6 billion), Agribusiness Development (US$1.5 billion), Agriculture Research and Development (US$149 million), and Climate and Market Information Services (US$30 million). Together, these investment areas encompass a wide range of critical interventions—ranging from sustainable crop and livestock intensification and land rehabilitation to enterprise growth and digital infrastructure. They are designed to not only improve productivity and preserve ecosystems but also strengthen systems for timely, data-driven risk management and planning, particularly in the face of growing climate variability and market uncertainty. These coordinated investments are foundational to strengthening national and household food security; accelerating inclusive rural development; and building durable, long-term resilience across Afghanistan’s diverse and fragile agrifood systems. 13. In stark contrast, the cost of inaction is estimated at US$39.6 billion—more than five times the required investment. The most substantial foregone benefits would arise in natural resource management (US$16  billion), CSA (US$14  billion), and agribusiness development (US$8.5 billion). Even the least capital-intensive pillars, such as agricultural research and development (R&D) and information services, would incur losses of US$709 million and US$363  million, respectively, if neglected. On average, the cost of action represents just 19  percent of the cost of inaction, making a clear economic case for immediate intervention. The data also reveal that certain areas, despite requiring minimal investment, offer disproportionately high returns. For example, climate and market information services need only US$30 million but could avert losses exceeding 10 times that amount. Similarly, agriculture R&D XIV Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan shows a 5:1 benefit-to-cost ratio. These findings highlight both the urgency and high-impact potential of even modest investments, particularly in knowledge, innovation, and decision-support infrastructure. The implications for policy are clear: delaying action significantly increases long-term costs and reduces the effectiveness of future interventions. Strategic prioritization and scaling, especially in CSA and integrated resource management, can mitigate climate risks, enhance food and water security, and create economic opportunities. Failure to invest now would deepen vulnerability, erode productivity, and entrench poverty, especially in climate-exposed rural regions. Jobs generation through the CSAAP 14. The implementation of the CSAAP is expected to generate 7.4 million new jobs across Afghanistan’s agrifood system— a 65 percent increase—through investments in climate-resilient farming, value-added processing, and improved market infrastructure. Of these, 93 percent will be in on-farm activities, with the remainder in processing, transport, and retail, fueling rural revitalization and inclusive economic growth. The Action Plan will also expand women’s participation in agriculture from 5.46 million to 8.5 million, creating 3 million new jobs and addressing long-standing barriers such as mobility constraints, insecure land rights, and limited financial access. Targeted interventions like gender-responsive extension and women-led producer groups will empower women as leaders in climate-resilient transformation. At the same time, youth employment is projected to rise from 6.2 million to 10.8 million—an increase of 175 percent—by opening new roles in mechanized farming, horticulture, livestock services, and agri-tech. Through investments in skills development, enterprise incubation, and digital market access, the CSAAP provides young Afghans with meaningful pathways out of economic marginalization and into the forefront of sustainable agricultural development. Climate change mitigation through the action plan 15. The CSAAP delivers substantial climate co-benefits by both reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and enhancing carbon sequestration across Afghanistan’s agrifood systems. By promoting the widespread adoption of more efficient, sustainable, and regenerative land use practices, the plan facilitates a strategic shift from a high-emission trajectory toward a carbon-reducing and climate-resilient pathway. Collectively, the proposed interventions are expected to result in a net reduction of approximately 375 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2-e) over the implementation period. Among the interventions, improved grassland management stands out as the largest single contributor to emission reductions, accounting for 276 million tCO2-e in avoided emissions. This is made possible through a combination of practices including the restoration of degraded rangelands, introduction of rotational grazing systems, and regeneration of native grass cover—all of which enhance soil health and ecosystem resilience. Simultaneously, targeted investments in sustainable forest management such as reforestation, afforestation, and the protection of forested watersheds are projected to contribute an additional 164.5  million tCO2-e in carbon sequestration. Together, these nature-based solutions not only play a crucial role in mitigating climate change but also generate co-benefits by enhancing biodiversity, improving water regulation, and strengthening the provision of vital ecosystem services. By combining targeted emissions reductions with large-scale carbon sequestration, the CSAAP not only enhances agricultural resilience and productivity but also positions Afghanistan to capitalize on emerging opportunities in carbon finance. The role of the private sector in implementing the action plan 16. Afghanistan’s development landscape is undergoing a major shift, marked by declining aid, restrictive policies, economic contraction, and weakened institutions—all of which have diminished the effectiveness of traditional aid delivery. In this context, the private sector has emerged as a resilient and dynamic driver of local development, with strong potential for inclusive growth, especially for women and youth. Despite ongoing challenges such as limited finance and market uncertainty, recent regulatory reforms and financial strategies signal a growing commitment to enabling private sector-led development, especially in agriculture. The CSAAP underscores the vital role of private Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan XV investment, innovation, and public-private partnerships in transforming Afghanistan’s food systems and building climate resilience. With limited public service capacity, the private sector is essential for delivering scalable solutions across the agrifood value chain from input supply to processing and market access. Key investments in solar- powered cold storage, dairy and poultry processing, and packaging help reduce postharvest losses, improve quality, and open new markets while supporting job creation and climate goals. Local enterprises also drive innovation in areas like food processing, organic inputs, e-commerce, and logistics—linking producers to markets and stimulating rural incomes. Special emphasis is placed on supporting women- and youth-led enterprises through targeted financing and mentorship. The private sector is equally critical in developing digital infrastructure and services, such as payment platforms, weather insurance, and advisory tools, which can improve transparency, reduce risk, and strengthen resilience when backed by strong public-private collaboration. 17. The CSAAP marks a strategic shift in Afghanistan’s development approach—from donor-led delivery to a more sustainable, market-driven model that leverages private capital, innovation, and local capabilities. In response to shrinking fiscal space and declining aid, the Action Plan promotes co-financing with the private sector, risk-sharing, and long-term partnerships to scale impact in a fragile, resource-constrained context. By moving beyond traditional aid and emphasizing local ownership and market-based solutions, the CSAAP enhances efficiency, accountability, and innovation, the groundwork for resilient, climate-smart agrifood systems that can adapt and thrive in the face of ongoing uncertainty. 18. In conclusion, the Afghanistan CSAAP is a comprehensive, forward-looking strategy to address one of the country’s most urgent and complex development challenges. It presents a clear investment case for resilience—one that promises food security, economic recovery, and climate adaptation. The plan must now move from paper to practice. It will require bold leadership, coordinated action, and sustained commitment from policy makers, development partners, the private sector, and Afghan communities themselves. The cost of inaction is too high. The opportunity for change is within reach. Now is the time to act. XVI Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan FAO/Afghanistan Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan XVII 1. FAO/Afghanistan Introduction  1. Afghanistan continues to grapple with one of the increase food prices. Such climatic shocks—coupled world’s most severe and persistent food crises,1 with economic instability and conflict—worsen consistently ranking among the top 10 countries with food insecurity. Floods cause immediate crop and the highest number of people experiencing acute infrastructure damage, while droughts exacerbate food insecurity (FSIN, and GNAFC).2 Although some water scarcity and lower crop yields, driving up food improvements have been observed recently due to prices and lowering agricultural wages. food assistance and a relatively good harvest, about 14.8  million people (32  percent of the population) 3. Economic factors such as inflation, rising fuel were projected to face crisis or worse (Integrated costs, and currency depreciation reduce the Food Security Phase Classification, IPC Phase 3 or purchasing power of consumers and strain above) during the 2024–2025 lean season, including affordability. Economic pressures have further 3.1 million in emergency (IPC Phase 4).3 These levels, eroded the purchasing power of Afghan households, while slightly lower than the previous year, remain intensifying food insecurity and limiting access to significantly above pre-2021 levels, reflecting deep essential goods and services. Over the past several structural vulnerabilities in the food system and years, Afghanistan’s economy has faced prolonged economy (figure 1). contraction, marked by declining public revenue, reduced foreign aid, and weak private sector 2. The crisis is exacerbated by multiple, overlapping activity. This fragile economic environment has led shocks. Weather extremes, including La Niña-driven to frequent fluctuations in food and fuel prices, with below-average rainfall and rising temperatures, have rural households disproportionately affected due to undermined agricultural productivity and damaged their reliance on local markets for both inputs and critical infrastructure across all 34 provinces. consumption. Inflation in staple food prices and the Afghanistan ranks fourth among countries most at cost of agricultural inputs such as fertilizers, seeds, risk of climate-related crisis4 and is considered the and animal feed have made farming more expensive seventh most vulnerable country5 with the least and less profitable, while higher fuel prices have coping capacity. The frequency of droughts in the increased transportation costs, directly affecting country has increased from an average of once every food affordability and market connectivity. The three years during 1986–2012 to once every other depreciation of the Afghan afghani has also raised year during 2013–2023. These intensifying droughts the cost of imported goods, including essential and floods damage crops, disrupt supply chains, and commodities and machinery, placing additional strain on both producers and consumers. For low- 1 Food crisis is defined as a situation where acute food insecurity requires income rural families, these trends translate into urgent action to protect and save lives and livelihoods at local or national difficult trade-offs between food, health care, and levels and exceeds the national resources and capacities to respond. 2 Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, education while diminishing their ability to invest in and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their productive assets or climate-resilient technologies. dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. 3 Acute food insecurity arises when one, some, or all dimensions of food security—food availability, access, utilization and stability—are disrupted, whether by shocks or other factors. It can be temporary or persistent over 4. Conflict-related constraints and gender-based time, largely due to structural causes, or occur at a specific point in time restrictions continue to severely hinder food and of a severity that threatens lives or livelihoods, regardless of the causes, context, or duration. access, livelihood opportunities, and the 4 See https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index/Portals/0/InfoRM/ 2023/INFORM%20Annual%20Report%202023.pdf. resilience of rural households, particularly for 5 https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/. women and other vulnerable groups. Ongoing Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 1 FIGURE 1: EVOLUTION OF AFGHANISTAN POPULATION IN ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY, 2019–2025 (MILLIONS)  50 3.1 3.6 40 6.1 5.5 8.7 11.6 3.4 12.3 30 11.4 13.8 10.5 14.1 18.7 20 16.4 11.1 13.6 14.3 12.5 10 11.7 12.3 12.5 9.9 8.9 6.4 0 2019 20 21 22/23 24 2025 None/Minimal Stressed Crisis Emergency Source: GRFC 2025. Data for 2025 are projections. insecurity and localized conflict have disrupted supported as farmers, entrepreneurs, and leaders agricultural activities, displaced farming communities, in the transformation of local food systems. These and limited access to rangelands, markets, and combined challenges leave vulnerable households essential services such as extension and veterinary particularly at risk. care. These disruptions disproportionately affect smallholders and pastoralists who rely on seasonal 5. Persistent food crises rank Afghanistan among mobility and secure access to land and water the top 5 countries requiring support to prevent resources. In parallel, restrictions on women’s further deterioration of food and nutrition participation in economic life have sharply curtailed security. In 2022, more than 30  percent of the their ability to contribute to household income, country’s population was undernourished (against access productive resources, or engage in local 14 percent in South Asia, 11 percent in Middle East value chains. Despite women comprising more than and North Africa, and 9  percent in the world).6 It half of the agricultural labor force, social norms has one of the world’s highest rates of stunting in and institutional barriers, exacerbated under the children under five, at 35 percent (table 1). The rate current political context, have limited their mobility, of wasting, the extreme manifestation of severe financial inclusion, and access to advisory services. acute malnutrition, in Afghanistan is extremely high: This not only undermines household food security 9.5 percent, one in three adolescent girls suffers from but also weakens the overall productivity and anemia, and only 12  percent of Afghan children ages adaptability of the rural economy. Moreover, the 6−24 months receive the right variety of food in the loss of women’s income and autonomy has direct quantity needed for their age. Evidence from the consequences for child nutrition, education, and recent IPC report shows marginal improvements health care—key pillars of long-term human capital in food security since the worst situation following development. In the absence of targeted investments the political transition in 2021. In 2023, 11.6 million and protective policies, these exclusions compound (25  percent of the population) experienced high existing inequalities and further entrench food levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) insecurity. A climate-smart approach to agriculture in Afghanistan must therefore address both conflict 6 The prevalence of undernourishment (SDG 2.1.1) is calculated by the sensitivity and gender inclusion as foundational FAO to measure chronic hunger, that is, the long-term inability to meet elements of resilience, ensuring that women are dietary energy needs of a country. 2 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan TABLE 1: AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN AFGHANISTAN COMPARED TO SOUTH ASIA AND MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA  Afghanistan South Asia Middle East and North Africa Population million 40 1,989 464 Rural population million 31 1,231 200 Rural / Total population % 70 62 43 Employment in agriculture million 19 273 30 Employment in agriculture % 47 42 15 Prevalence of undernourishment % 30.4 14.2 11 No, of undernourished people million 11.6 284.9 51 Under-5 stunted children % 35.1 30.5 22.5 Under-5 stunted children million 2.0 53.7 12.4 Arable land million ha 7.8 219.3 70 Arable land / person employed in agriculture ha/person 0.41 0.80 2.33 Land area equipped for irrigation million ha 1.8 118.7 37.8 % of arable land equipped with irrigation % 5.6 54.1 54 Rice yield (2022) kg/ha 3,500 4,292 4,500 Wheat yield (2022) kg/ha 2,500 3,129 2,800 Raw milk of cattle (2022) kg/animal 750 1,760 1,500 Agriculture production per ha of agriculture land US$/ha 155 2,123 1,800 Source: Food and Agriculture Organization Statistics (FAOSTAT). Note: The Middle East and North Africa data exclude Afghanistan and Pakistan. compared to the same period in previous years transform Afghanistan’s agriculture and food systems (18  million in 2022 and 15  million in 2023).7 These into a more productive and climate-resilient sector. improvements can be attributed to the scale of The CSAAP places a strong emphasis on generating a coordinated food emergency agricultural production robust evidence base to demonstrate the role of CSA assistance, including the Emergency Food in addressing Afghanistan’s food system vulnerabilities. Security Project’s (EFSP) nationwide interventions Recognizing the complex interplay between climate implemented by the World Bank in collaboration shocks, agricultural underperformance, and chronic with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the food insecurity, the plan prioritizes data-driven United Nations (FAO) to stabilize food production. approaches to inform policy, guide investments, and scale effective interventions. Through the evaluation 6. In this context, the Climate-Smart Agriculture of proven CSA practices such as climate-resilient Action Plan (CSAAP) recognizes the urgent seed systems, sustainable rangeland management, need to improve food security, stabilize rural and low-emission livestock strategies, the plan aims livelihoods and increase resilience to economic to build credible, context-specific evidence on the shocks. The objective of the CSAAP is to identify the productivity, resilience, and mitigation benefits of CSA investments that offer the greatest potential to CSA. This knowledge will be critical for mobilizing public and private investment, informing national 7 Food insecurity reflects the lack of regular access to enough safe and adaptation strategies, and aligning food system nutritious food for normal growth and development and an active and transformation efforts with Afghanistan’s long-term healthy life and is measured through people consultation using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) (SDG 2.1.2). development and climate goals. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 3 7. Furthermore, a major focus of the CSAAP is to inform This chapter lays the groundwork for understanding the next generation of agriculture and food system the systemic vulnerabilities the CSAAP seeks to investments that are essential for driving long-term address. food security, climate resilience, and economic recovery in Afghanistan. Building on lessons learned 9. Chapter 4 examines the vulnerability and projected from earlier initiatives, the CSAAP aims to transition impacts of climate change, analyzing how shifting from short-term crisis response to more strategic, temperature and precipitation patterns, extreme integrated investments that address the root weather events, and related ecological degradation causes of vulnerability. This includes identifying are expected to affect the yield and suitability scalable innovations, cost-effective technologies, of key crops, livestock systems, water resources, and institutional models that can guide the design and rural livelihoods. It also highlights population of future interventions across key value chains. By groups and regions most at risk. Chapter  5 moves embedding evidence-based planning and climate- into investment planning, describing the process of smart principles into investment programming, identifying a long list of potential CSA interventions the CSAAP will help ensure that new agricultural and the criteria used to prioritize them, including investments are better targeted, more inclusive, and their expected contributions to productivity, income capable of delivering both immediate livelihood generation, environmental sustainability, inclusivity, benefits and sustained development outcomes and climate resilience. across rural Afghanistan. 10. Chapter  6 focuses on investment design and 8. The report is structured to provide a comprehensive costing, presenting estimated investment needs, and logical progression from evidence gathering the costs of inaction, and illustrative examples of to actionable planning. Chapter  2 outlines the bundled investment packages aligned with regional methodological approach, detailing the analytical agribusiness opportunities. Finally, Chapter  7 offers framework, data sources, and tools used to conclusions and a roadmap for rolling out the CSAAP, assess Afghanistan’s food systems, climate risks, considering Afghanistan’s evolving political and and investment priorities. Chapter  3 presents an operational context. It emphasizes the importance in-depth review of Afghanistan’s food systems of coordination among national and international and rural livelihoods, exploring the country’s stakeholders, the significance of leveraging the private agricultural production patterns, market structures, sector as co-financiers and implementers where socioeconomic drivers of food insecurity, and the possible, and the need for adaptive implementation institutional landscape shaping rural development. in a dynamic and fragile environment. 4 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan FAO/Afghanistan Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 5 2. FAO/Afghanistan Methodological Approach  11. The development of the CSAAP was guided by a review, spatial and climate analyses were carried out structured methodology that integrated diverse using the FAO land cover data and climate change sources of information, expert consultations, and modeling (FAO and IIASA 2022) to assess the impacts of analytical approaches to ensure a comprehensive climate variability on crops and agricultural systems. and evidence-based framework. Given the constraints on field-based research and broader stakeholder 13. Household-level data analysis was another critical engagement at the time of the study, the methodology component. The FAO Data in Emergency Monitoring relied on a combination of literature reviews, spatial (DIEM) household survey data were examined to and data analysis, and targeted expert inputs. The understand livelihood characteristics within different process was designed to capture the complexities of agroclimatic zones, incorporating information on Afghanistan’s agrifood systems, climate vulnerabilities, household assets and regional variations (FAO and investment needs by drawing on past and ongoing 2023). Recognizing the limitations of available studies, review of past investment programs by quantitative data, expert engagement was prioritized development partners, institutional knowledge, and through focus group discussions and specialist sector-specific assessments. A multistep approach questionnaires. These activities, facilitated through was adopted, beginning with a detailed background the FAO’s six regional offices in Afghanistan, allowed analysis and data collection, followed by the for the collection of more up-to-date and qualitative identification of key issues and investment priorities, insights on food security, staple crops, horticulture, the structured development of investment packages, and livestock. Additionally, a dedicated horticulture and a final assessment of scaling up opportunities study was conducted to provide in-depth analysis of and broader investment implications. This structured fruit value chains, focusing on apples, citrus, grapes, process ensured that the CSAAP was grounded in the and pomegranates. This study, undertaken with best available evidence, aligned with national priorities, national consultants working in the field, assessed and capable of supporting resilient and climate-smart the role of input suppliers, processors, service agricultural development in Afghanistan. The four key providers, and traders while also gathering updated steps are discussed below. production and market data. Step 1: Background analysis Step 2: Identification of and data collection  key issues and investment priorities  12. To assess the broader context of agrifood systems, trends, and resilience, the CSAAP relied on multiple 14. Building on the background analysis, the study sources of information. A comprehensive literature identified key elements of Afghanistan’s food system review was conducted, covering key agricultural to define intervention priorities. This involved subsectors, including government and development assessing major agricultural systems such as wheat, agency reports, humanitarian food security horticulture, and livestock, along with the livelihoods assessments, and national statistics. While recent data that depend on them. The analysis was conducted were prioritized, older studies were also considered across different agroecological zones (AEZs) to ensure to provide historical context and a more nuanced that regional variations in productivity, resource analysis of long-term trends. In addition to literature availability, and food security challenges were Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 7 fully captured. Stakeholder consultations played a directorates was held to review and refine the central role in this process. International experts and investment proposals. Their feedback helped finalize those from the national agencies provided insights intervention compositions and identify specific into both short- and long-term needs for different technical and institutional support activities. Further regions, ensuring that CSAAP priorities aligned with reviews were conducted with FAO Afghanistan local realities and institutional capacities. and MAIL technical units, followed by a technical stakeholder review meeting in September 2024 and 15. To further refine the intervention framework, a Private Sector Consultation Forum in May 2025 to key strategic planning documents, including the incorporate additional perspectives. Agriculture Sector Roadmap and the Afghanistan Water and Irrigation Investment Roadmap (2020– 2030), were reviewed. While these documents provided broad objectives and financial estimates Step 4: Scaling up and for the agricultural sector, they were developed assessing investment before recent institutional changes and, in some cases, presented overly optimistic projections. implications  Nonetheless, they served as useful reference points 18. To contextualize the proposed investments and in framing sector-wide priorities and aligning CSAAP highlight their broader implications, further analysis interventions with existing plans. was conducted on national-scale financing needs and the cost of inaction. Simplified calculations were made to estimate the potential financial Step 3: Screening and and food security risks associated with delayed implementation of CSA interventions. Additionally, development of investment projections were developed to assess the scale packages  of production increases required to address food security challenges, with and without CSA 16. Following the identification of key priorities, potential measures. This included an evaluation of financing intervention options were systematically evaluated needs at the national level to support sustainable and structured into investment packages. A review of agricultural intensification and climate adaptation. past and ongoing investment projects in agriculture, An assessment of private sector investment livestock, water management, and agribusiness— opportunities in Afghanistan’s agricultural sector funded by the World Bank, International Fund for across various geographic zones, emphasizing each Agricultural Development (IFAD), Asian Development region’s agronomic strengths, was also carried out. Bank (ADB), and FAO—was conducted. Projects implemented between 2008 and 2020 were analyzed 19. The environmental implications of the proposed to extract lessons on outcomes, costs, and feasibility. interventions were also considered, particularly in This provided valuable insights into approximate relation to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The unit costs, potential benefits, and institutional likely GHG balance from scaled-up CSA actions capacity considerations under pre-2021 conditions. was assessed, including the integration of climate- smart livestock practices and watershed restoration 17. To ensure a structured approach to investment efforts. These analyses provided a comprehensive selection, prioritization criteria were established, understanding of how CSA investments could focusing on productivity improvements, jobs contribute to not only food security and economic creation, income generation, social inclusion, resilience but also broader ecosystem restoration climate resilience, and environmental sustainability. and environmental sustainability. A simple scoring system was applied to assess the relative importance of various interventions and to 20. This structured approach ensured that the CSAAP was identify those with the highest potential impact. The developed based on rigorous analysis, stakeholder proposed investment packages were then subjected engagement, and evidence-based prioritization, to stakeholder validation. In June  2024, a one- enabling the identification of targeted and impactful day workshop with 40 stakeholders from all major interventions for building a resilient food system in Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, and Livestock (MAIL) Afghanistan. 8 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Rumi Consultancy/Afghanistan Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 9 3. FAO/Afghanistan Agrifood Systems and Rural Livelihoods in Afghanistan  21. Agrifood systems are defined as the group of systems, the livelihoods that rely on them, and the activities related to the production, processing, key challenges that they face. distribution, preparation, and consumption of food, along with the outcomes of these activities, including socioeconomic and environmental outcomes (FAO 2021). They play a crucial role in food Wheat  security and nutrition (FSN), supporting livelihoods 23. Wheat is the country’s major agriculture commodity, and incomes and bolstering the overall economy. crop, and food staple but suffers from climate-driven Afghanistan has a largely rural-based population, fluctuations. It is the most produced commodity dependent on agriculture for its livelihoods. and the major crop in the country, accounting for about 70 percent of cultivated land area (MAIL GOIRA 22. Agriculture sector is the dominant sector for 2020). Wheat is the key staple food in Afghanistan, Afghanistan’s economic development. The accounting for approximately 60  percent of sector expanded by 6  percent in 2024, building on the population’s calorie intake, with average a 2.2  percent recovery in 2023 after a cumulative consumption ranging from 150 to 162  kg/capita/ contraction of 15.7  percent between 2021 and 2023 year; low-quality rice serves as a poor but sometimes (World Bank 2025). In 2023, the agriculture sector necessary substitute. Domestic wheat production employed about 46  percent of the population varies in Afghanistan, ranging from 2.1  million and contributed 35  percent of the country’s gross metric tons (Mt) in 2008 to over 5 million Mt in 2020. domestic product (GDP) (figure 2). From 2010 to 2017, Typically, Afghanistan produces approximately 4.8  Mt Afghanistan experienced a noticeable decline in the and consumes 6.3 Mt/year, needing about 1.5 Mt of share of employment in agriculture. This trend was imports. The Afghan average wheat yield of 2.2 t/ha primarily driven by the substantial influx of foreign aid is modest but comparable, falling slightly below during this period, which expanded opportunities in Pakistan’s average of 3 t/ha and India’s yield of other sectors, particularly services. However, as donor almost 3.5 t/ha. Wheat is cultivated across nearly funding began to decline in recent years, the share all provinces of Afghanistan, both in irrigated areas of agricultural employment has stabilized or even covering approximately 1,167,000 ha, or about one- increased slightly, reflecting a relative shift back to the third of the country’s potentially irrigated land, with sector. At the same time, agriculture’s contribution an average yield of around 3 t/ha, and in rainfed to GDP has been rising. This upward trend can be areas spanning roughly 1,345,000 ha where yields attributed both to improved performance within the are significantly lower, averaging 1.2 t/ha, primarily sector, such as better yields and favorable seasons, in 10 northern provinces. In dry years, rainfed wheat and to a contraction in the relative contributions area and production can decline sharply by as much of other sectors such as services and industry, as 90 percent. Despite the majority of Afghanistan’s positioning agriculture a more prominent driver of arable land being devoted to wheat cultivation, the the national economy. Most of the population are country remains only about 75 percent self-sufficient directly or indirectly involved in agriculture, making it in wheat and continues to rely heavily on imports of the main source of livelihoods in Afghanistan. In rural wheat flour, primarily from Kazakhstan and Pakistan. areas, 27  percent of women participated in the labor force, compared to 81.5 percent of men. The following 24. The wheat sector plays a key role in Afghanistan’s sections offer a review of Afghanistan’s agricultural agricultural income, employment, and food security Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 11 FIGURE 2: POPULATION EMPLOYED IN AGRICULTURE AND THE SECTOR’S CONTRIBUTION TO GDP (%)  60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 2010 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 2023 Employment GDP Data source: World Bank World Development Indicators. as well as the economy, which depends on wheat chronically insecure (FEWSNET 2023). Kabul, the flour imports to fill recurrent shortfall. Before 2020, capital, supplies the central provinces and is a transit wheat generated between 1.1 and 1.3  million point between the north, south, east, and west. full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs, of which 639,000– Jalalabad caters to the eastern part of the country. 787,000 are on-farm and the rest are in the non-farm Mazar-e-Sarif supplies the northern provinces and, in economy, including milling and baking. Wheat and a good year, the southern provinces as well. Kunduz its related activities such as logistics and milling provides for the northeastern provinces while represent around 6.5  percent of the national GDP. Faizabad supplies the chronically food-insecure The private sector plays a key role in the supply chain Badakhshan province. The Maimana market supplies of wheat and flour, with an annual import volume the drought-prone northwest region and Herat serves of more than 2 Mt. Driven mainly by its short-term the west. Kandahar supplies the southwestern part profit orientation, the private sector predominantly of the country where drought, civil insecurity, and imports wheat in the form of flour rather than conflict often hinder market activity. grain, posing challenges for the wheat value chain, particularly the milling industry (MAIL GOIRA 2020). Import data from 2017 showed that 86  percent of Rice  the wheat is imported in the form of flour and only 14 percent is in the form of grain. 26. Rice is the second most important cereal crop in Afghanistan in terms of food security and source of 25. Imbalances between provinces and interdependency income. It is grown in paddy culture in low-altitude on wheat are important elements of the Afghan food river valleys and plains where water is abundant system. Key wheat markets in major urban consumer and summers are hot. It is cultivated in 82 districts of centers, situated in or near intense irrigated areas, 18 mainly northerly provinces that have potential supply neighboring provinces, which are sometimes access to reliable irrigation water. Kunduz, Takhar, 12 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Baghlan, Laghman, Nangarhar, Kunar, Herat, and Balkh 28. The pulses sector in Afghanistan presents numerous are the major rice-growing areas. Rice is an important opportunities across production, processing, and staple food in Afghanistan and currently commands marketing. First, pulses contribute to soil fertility by a much higher price than wheat. Its production is fixing nitrogen, offering a sustainable approach to dependent on seasonal rain and snowmelt volumes agricultural practices. Moreover, the availability of to supply rivers and well-managed irrigation canals. cheap labor, coupled with the short growing season Therefore, farmers as well as the yields and production conducive to two-season production annually, areas are vulnerable to fluctuations in available surface enhances productivity. Pulses’ suitability for water resources. Afghanistan has never been self- intercropping further maximizes land use efficiency. sufficient in cereals. Despite an annual production Notably, their low water and fertilizer requirements capacity of 600,000 tons, another 500,000 or so was during the growing season make them a cost- imported in 2022 (Statistics Yearbook 2023), indicating effective crop choice. From a marketing perspective, an ongoing need to supplement with imports by the pulses enjoy high demand domestically and private sector or foreign assistance. Rice yields have internationally due to their industrial value and slowly increased from 2 t/ha in 2000 to 4.6  t/ha in nutritional benefits, serving as an excellent protein 2022 (the United States Department of Agriculture source. Additionally, pulse straw serves as valuable [USDA] indicated 3  t/ha overall currently, though animal feed, further enhancing their economic and agricultural significance. higher yields have been demonstrated). When compared to regional rice-producing countries (India 29. The northern and western regions of Afghanistan, 4.3  t/ha, Pakistan 3.8 t/ha, and China over 7 t/ha), particularly provinces such as Balkh, Herat, Badghis, there remains significant potential for further yield and Faryab, can significantly benefit from the growth improvement in Afghanistan. Production has also of legumes and pulses to improve nutrition. These declined due to a reduction in harvested area, which areas have suitable agroecological conditions dropped to around 130,000 ha in 2022 from over for growing crops such as lentils, chickpeas, and 200,000 in 2010–2013, a level similar to that of 2000. mung beans, which are rich in protein and essential nutrients. Legumes and pulses can enhance dietary diversity, address malnutrition, and improve food Pulses  security, especially in rural communities where access to animal-based protein is limited. Additionally, 27. Afghanistan’s favorable weather makes it ideal legumes play a crucial role in nitrogen fixation, for growing pulse crops, which are crucial for which can improve soil fertility and reduce the addressing malnutrition. Pulses play a pivotal role need for chemical fertilizers, promoting sustainable in the nutrition context, serving as a vital source of agricultural practices. By incorporating legumes into protein and essential nutrients. However, despite crop rotations, farmers can enhance soil health agriculture being a primary livelihood for many and long-term productivity. Furthermore, expanding Afghans, the sector remains underdeveloped and legume cultivation can create opportunities for agro- struggles for self-sufficiency. Chickpeas, lentils, processing, enabling value addition and increasing cowpeas, soybeans, and other legumes thrive in market opportunities, thus boosting farmers’ various regions, but water scarcity poses a significant incomes and contributing to rural economic growth. challenge (although some legumes are more Finally, promoting legume production can help drought tolerant). To enhance production, there is build resilience against climate change by increasing a need for improved seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation the diversity of crops grown in these regions, technologies, including water-efficient methods and making agricultural systems more adaptable to conservation agriculture. In particular, soybeans environmental stresses. are vital as a source of plant protein, addressing the widespread issue of protein deficiency. Meeting the daily protein requirements as per World Health Horticulture  Organization (WHO) guidelines remains difficult for many Afghans, necessitating innovative solutions to 30. The horticulture subsector (fruits, nuts, and vegetables) boost pulse crop production and improve access to has one of the most significant agribusiness potential nutritious food sources. for growth, job creation, and poverty reduction. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 13 In 2023, horticulture provided about 37  percent of under vegetable cultivation (GoIRA 2020 Agriculture the country’s total exports, and about 61  percent Roadmap). They are important for wider nutrient of agricultural exports. Afghanistan’s environmental intake as well as cash crops, often grown in irrigated conditions are favorable for the production of many areas. They provide opportunities for diversification fruits and vegetables. There are many endemic to help farmers cope with changing climate or new horticultural species, while the wide range of economic situations. Potato is the third-largest staple AEZs provides a long season of constant supply. crop in Afghanistan and is grown in the highland areas These seasonal advantages could be exploited to of Bamyan, Maydan, Wardak, Ghazni, Badakhshan, supply high-value products during leaner periods and Kabul, covering approximately 55,000 ha, with in neighboring countries. Horticulture is land and a steady or slightly increasing trend. Potato is the labor intensive; this favors smallholder farmers in major crop in Bamyan, grown on about 70  percent Afghanistan, where most farmers are already familiar of the irrigated land, equivalent to 12,000 ha. with growing several horticultural crops. Farmers either retain a portion of their harvest or buy potatoes from local markets to use as seed. This 31. Horticultural crop production, processing, and trade reduces genetic vigor and the potential for optimal provides nearly 200,000 FTE jobs and seasonal income production, while crops become more vulnerable to as many as 2 million Afghans. The main perennial to environmental stresses. The highland areas of fruits cultivated in Afghanistan are grapes (fresh and Afghanistan are less infested by insects and diseases, raisin), almonds, pomegranates, apricots, plums, and so the availability of improved seed and modern pistachios, citrus fruits, and apples. The subsector cultivation practices would increase productivity covers over 390,000 ha, and almost 14  percent of by an estimated 20–40  percent. Average yields are the total irrigated land area. Afghanistan’s diverse about 12 t/ha in Afghanistan compared to yields in geographic and climatic conditions allow a wide Pakistan (22 t/ha) and Iran (32 t/ha). Afghanistan is range of crops to be produced at different times of self-sufficient in potato production and exported the year. The most prominent high-value export crops more than 7,000 tons in 2022 (FAOSTAT). With are grapes, almonds, apples, pistachios, apricots, higher productivity, Afghanistan could become an pomegranates, and melons (table  2). Established important regional exporter. markets for Afghan’s horticultural products include India, Pakistan, and Iran, and there is potential for 33. All farmers grow some vegetables as an adjunct to expansion to other bigger markets. their main production system, primarily for their own household consumption. Many smallholder farmers 32. The vegetable side of horticulture comprises also specialize in growing vegetables with the potatoes, onions, tomatoes, melons, and eggplants, objective of selling them in local markets. Generally, representing over 80  percent of the total area there are good supplies of both local and imported vegetables in local markets and roadside stalls TABLE 2: TOP EXPORTED HORTICULTURAL throughout Afghanistan. Afghanistan exports three PRODUCTS 2020–2023 (US$, MILLIONS)  main vegetables: onions (US$33.7 million), cucumber (US$16.3 million), and tomatoes (US$41.7 million). 2020–21 2021–22 2022–23 The nutritional problems within Afghan households Almonds 28.4 56.4 55.83 are therefore less about insufficient supplies, at least in more irrigated areas, and more about the cost of Apples 15.4 15.6 30.1 fresh vegetables for local consumers and their choice Apricots 2.44 2.8 16 to spend their limited funds on calorie-dense foods Dry apricots 40 19.45 15.9 such as bread. In remote upland areas, there may be Grapes 25.7 31.8 47.76 less seasonal availability. Raisins 84.25 79.27 95.7 34. Over the last decade, the horticulture subsector has Melons 1.7 1.6 4.1 demonstrated steady growth and expansion and Pomegranates 9.1 17.5 69.51 continues to expand slowly despite a challenging environment. This growth and expansion are most Pistachios 25.3 27.6 34.3 pronounced in the production of the key value chains 14 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan covered in this report (apples, citrus fruits, grapes, 37. Afghanistan hosts a diverse range of livestock species, and pomegranates) and are fueled by several factors, including sheep, goats, cattle, and poultry. According including the support provided by development to FAOSTAT, in 2022, the country had approximately projects, the lucrative nature of these value chains 42  million livestock, including around 14  million compared to alternative crops such as grains, and poultry birds. Poultry production has shown the the demand in both domestic and export markets. greatest increase, followed by gradual growth in goat The area under apple cultivation, for example, has populations, slight recovery in cattle numbers, and a increased from 8,055 ha in 2010 to 30,163 ha in 2023. slight decline in sheep. However, despite the sector’s This significant expansion in the production area has significance, there remains a 30–50 percent shortfall consequently resulted in a remarkable increase in in meeting the country’s annual protein consumption the overall volume of production, from 59,850 Mt in needs. Livestock products such as meat, dairy, skins, 2010 to 318,402 Mt in 2023, leading to higher exports. and wool are integral to both domestic consumption and export markets. Afghanistan has historically been 35. Due to the global increase in food prices, a unique renowned for its wool carpets, with Karakul sheep export opportunity has emerged for Afghan products wool and skins being the main livestock product in regional traditional markets and beyond. Data exports, generating approximately US$56  million from USDA show that in India, the expanding middle annually—although this figure has been in decline class and increased purchasing power have led to over recent decades. Dairy products such as milk, a substantial surge in apple imports, particularly ghee, and cheese are widely consumed and traded evident from 194,782 Mt in 2019/2020 to 447,938 Mt in urban centers. However, the country imports three in 2021/2022, more than double within this time times the value of its livestock exports, mainly in the frame. Similarly, the demand for grapes and form of dairy products and poultry (chicks, eggs, and pomegranates is on the rise in both the Pakistani meat), totaling US$165 million. This trade imbalance and Indian markets. Consequently, the country’s highlights an opportunity for import substitution to exports are growing. In 2022–23, Afghanistan’s enhance domestic protein production. agriculture exports reached US$1.1  billion, out of which US$566  million was solely from horticulture. 38. Geographically, livestock distribution varies across Pakistan and India remain the primary export the country. More productive irrigated lands in the destinations, as these markets traditionally accept north, east, and south support higher concentrations Afghan produce and pay a premium based on size, of livestock due to better access to fodder and color, grading, and packaging. Overall, exports of feed derived from crop byproducts. Meanwhile, Afghan fruits have shown a significant increase over the upland and mountainous regions serve as vital the last decade, rising from US$136 million in 2010–11 summer rangelands for pastoralist communities. to US$566 million in 2022–23. With strategic investments in improved feed availability, processing infrastructure, and value chain development, Afghanistan’s livestock sector Livestock  has the potential to enhance food security, increase exports, and reduce dependence on imports. 36. Livestock is an important component of Afghan’s agriculture sector, with a significant portion of the 39. Afghanistan’s livestock production systems can land dedicated to pastures and subsistence mixed be categorized into three main types: the crop- farming. More than 85  percent of rural households livestock mixed sedentary system, mobile nomadic keep some form of livestock, making it a critical pastoralism, and commercial peri-urban farming. component of both livelihoods and national food The sedentary system, the most widespread, security. The livestock sector contributes around integrates crop cultivation with livestock rearing, 14–15 percent to the national GDP and is valued at primarily for domestic consumption. Rearing over US$7 billion. It serves not only as an economic cattle and small ruminants is prevalent, with rural driver but also as an essential source of protein, households managing small backyard herds. Women dairy, and other animal-based products, while play a crucial role in this system, contributing to animal manure provides both fuel and fertilizer for livestock care and household nutrition. Despite its crop production. prevalence, the sedentary system struggles to fully Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 15 meet national protein needs. Cattle are vital for meat 42. Livestock in Afghanistan primarily depends on and milk production as well as for agricultural labor. rangelands, crop residues, and a wide range of Management practices vary across provinces, with cultivated fodder crops for feed resources. Cereal animals grazing on community pastures or being straws, hay, maize stalks, and supplementary items housed indoors during extreme weather conditions. such as cotton seed cakes or maize and barley Wool and skins, once significant export commodities, grain are used to provide feed for cattle, milking continue to be traded but at much lower levels than cows, and working oxen, especially during winter. in the past. Rangelands cover 45 percent of Afghanistan’s land area and play a vital role in providing fodder for 40. Nomadic and transhumant pastoralism, primarily livestock, including sheep, goats, camels, cattle, involving small ruminants, forms a crucial seasonal and equines. Biomass production is influenced by dynamic for specific livelihood groups. Sheep and various factors such as climate, rainfall, altitude, goats are raised in large flocks, often managed soil type, and erosion. The rangelands are divided collectively in village-based systems. These flocks into three main categories based on seasonal migrate to highland pastures at the start of summer availability of optimum fodder and are crucial and return to the lowlands in autumn. Over 70 percent for agro-pastoralists and sedentary populations of Afghanistan’s livestock is owned by approximately relying on livestock for sustenance: (a)  winter 1.5  million Kuchi pastoralists, whose livelihoods lowlands (16,210,000 ha), (b) spring and autumn depend on sheep, goats, camels, and some cattle (16,030,000 ha), and (c) summer (22,460,000  ha) (Box 1). Their survival relies on extensive seasonal upland pastures. migration patterns and livestock trade. However, they face increasing challenges such as limited access to services, land conflicts, and the impacts of drought. Poppy cultivation  41. In response to growing market demand, commercial 43. While it is not a food product, poppy has been peri-urban and urban livestock farming is emerging a large ‘informal’ contributor to the agriculture as an important sector. Entrepreneurs and economy and rural livelihoods for several years investors are adopting modern, intensive systems, but is being drastically clamped down. The particularly in dairy and poultry production. These value of Afghanistan’s opiate exports alone has semicommercial farms cater to urban markets, frequently exceeded the value of legally exported helping bridge gaps in local protein supply. The goods. Despite being a key crop in over one-third expansion of this commercial livestock sector of villages, only less than 20 percent of the overall presents opportunities for improving food security economic benefit went to farmers (UNODC 2023). and increasing domestic production, but it requires The highly effective drug ban by the Interim Taliban supportive policies, better access to finance, and Administration (ITA) in 2022 meant selling opium infrastructure development to sustain growth. to traders plummeted by 92  percent from 2022 to BOX 1. KUCHI PASTORALISTS  They are the most important livestock traders in the country, depending solely on a nomadic livestock raising system. The transhumance sector comprises one-third of the small ruminants and most of the country’s camels. Goats and sheep are usually raised in this system. The Kuchis totally depend on livestock for their livelihoods and produce the major share of livestock products (meat, skins, cashmere, wool, and dairy) that are marketed domestically or regionally. Despite representing a mere 5 percent of the Afghan population, Kuchis own about 50 percent of the Afghan livestock, mostly sheep. Livestock raised in mobile pastoralism is the main source of livelihood for Kuchis. In fact, livestock is the only source of income for the nomadic Kuchis (FAO 2023). They are also the poorest ethnic group. 16 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 2023, resulting in a loss of about US$1 billion for TABLE 3: ROLE ALLOCATION IN LIVESTOCK farmers who mainly switched to wheat, which is PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES  less remunerative and drought tolerant than poppy. Roles Women Men Children Labor While the livelihood effects of such a switch are yet to be fully documented, it is clear that climate- Feeding 74.2 18.1 7.4 0.3 resilient and diversified commercial horticulture Grazing 4.3 10.2 27.3 58.2 options are increasingly important and urgent. Watering 75.5 14.6 9.2 0.7 Tending young 90.2 3.5 1.6 4.8 Women in agriculture  Milking 91.5 2.0 0.0 6.6 Treating/ 4.8 92.8 1.2 1.3 44. Women in Afghanistan face significant gender Breeding disparities in the agricultural sector, limiting their participation and economic opportunities. Despite Average 56.7 23.5 7.8 12.0 comprising 54 percent of the country’s agricultural Source: FAO 2019. workforce, their engagement is often restricted to lower-value activities due to cultural norms, mobility constraints, and limited access to resources. recognition or decision-making power, women’s Approximately two-thirds of the female labor force engagement in these activities reflects their deep in agriculture is involved in diverse activities such involvement in sustaining household livelihoods and as farming, livestock production, horticulture, and food systems. craftwork. However, their economic independence remains curtailed, with financial inclusion being 46. In contrast, men dominate more technical or notably low—only 7  percent of Afghan women physically demanding tasks such as treating and have access to a bank account, restricting their breeding animals, accounting for 92.8  percent of ability to invest in agriculture or expand businesses. this activity, while children and hired labor are more Additionally, the lack of female extension agents involved in grazing—contributing 27.3  percent and and ITA-imposed restrictions further limit women’s 58.2  percent, respectively. This division of labor access to agricultural services, impeding the illustrates a gendered specialization, where women adoption of climate-resilient technologies. Many are entrusted with routine, care-intensive tasks, while women-owned businesses have either ceased men and hired labor take on external or specialized operations or are functioning below capacity due roles. Overall, women contribute an average of to these constraints. 56.7  percent of the labor across the livestock value chain, far exceeding the average contributions 45. The livestock sector is a major source of employment of men (23.5  percent), children (7.8  percent), and for women, with around 60  percent of employed hired labor (12  percent). These figures underscore women engaged in this field, primarily as unpaid the critical need for gender-sensitive livestock family workers. At the household level, they are development policies that recognize, support, and largely responsible for key livestock management build the capacity of women in the sector. activities, yet their contributions remain undervalued. Table  3 highlights the significant role women play 47. Food insecurity and malnutrition disproportionately in livestock production activities in Afghanistan, affect women, especially pregnant and lactating particularly in tasks that are critical to animal mothers. Since 2021, approximately 804,365 of these care and household nutrition. Women are women have suffered from acute malnutrition, the primary contributors in key areas such as exacerbating vulnerabilities, and about 86  percent milking (91.5  percent), tending to young animals of female-headed households experience poor food (90.2 percent), watering (75.5 percent), and feeding consumption—34  percentage points higher than (74.2  percent). These responsibilities are essential male-headed households (WFP 2024). As a result, for maintaining animal health and productivity and food insecurity forces women into negative coping indicate the centrality of women’s labor in daily strategies, including reducing their food intake and livestock management. Despite often lacking formal increasing unpaid household labor. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 17 48. Broader societal challenges further compound these committees to ensure their voices are heard and issues. Women’s limited participation in decision- advocating for their interests are crucial. making and economic activities, already constrained by cultural norms, has worsened under the Taliban. Early marriage, high fertility rates, and gender- based violence (GBV) reduce their opportunities for Agroecological-livelihood education and economic engagement, negatively zones for targeting food affecting their health and productivity. Mobility restrictions and safety concerns further hinder systems investments  their access to markets, reinforcing their economic 50. Spatial targeting of CSA interventions in Afghanistan marginalization. Afghan women often serve as is crucial for optimizing resource use, enhancing ‘societal shock absorbers’ in times of crisis— resilience, and ensuring the effectiveness of shouldering increased household burdens while agricultural investments. Given the country’s diverse experiencing heightened risks of GBV and forced agroecological and socioeconomic conditions, a one- child marriage, ultimately limiting their capacity to size-fits-all approach to CSA would be inefficient. By contribute fully to Afghanistan’s agricultural and integrating agroecological information with livelihoods food systems. analysis and household survey data, five distinct spatial zones were identified, each requiring tailored 49. Efforts to promote gender equality and inclusion in CSA strategies (figure  3 and table 4). These zones agriculture should focus on addressing structural reflect variations in irrigation access, landholding sizes, barriers, providing access to resources and population densities, and livestock ownership, which market opportunities, and supporting women are critical determinants of agricultural productivity to participate more actively in higher-value and climate vulnerability. Spatial targeting allows agricultural activities. Interventions aimed at interventions to be designed with precision, ensuring promoting women’s economic independence and that climate-resilient technologies, extension services, enhancing their participation in decision-making and financial support align with the specific needs of processes are essential for achieving sustainable each zone. The five zones are as follows: agricultural development and inclusive growth in Afghanistan. Targeted education and outreach • Irrigated arid lowland zone: 18  percent of the initiatives aimed at women can play a pivotal role country’s estimated rural households are in these in equipping them with the necessary knowledge zones and have only irrigated land, of which and skills. Additionally, promoting gender-sensitive 45  percent of households have more than 1 ha approaches to ensure women’s access to agricultural irrigated land, 12  percent more than 2 ha, and inputs can foster inclusivity and enable women to 20 percent have larger herds of livestock.8 actively engage in farming activities. Integrating • Irrigated dry temperate zone: 29  percent of home gardening practices into value chains, where rural households are in these zones and have only feasible, not only strengthens food security but also irrigated land, of which 38 percent of households creates income-generating opportunities for women have more than 1 ha irrigated land, 12  percent within their communities. Furthermore, emphasizing more than 2 ha, and 37 percent have larger herds the cultivation and marketing of products such of livestock. as mushrooms, aloe vera, vermicompost, and milk products specifically tailored to women’s • Irrigated humid temperate zone: 27 percent of preferences and needs can unlock economic all rural households are in these zones and have potential and uplift livelihoods. Facilitating market only irrigated lands, of which only 14 percent of access for products in which women are actively households have more than 1 ha irrigated land, involved is essential for recognizing and valuing a few have more than 2 ha, and 38 percent have their contributions, ultimately fostering sustainable larger herds of livestock. economic development and social progress. It is also important to involve women in community decision- making processes related to agricultural policies 8 Larger herds of livestock are those with more than 4 cattle or 10 small and resource management. Establishing women’s ruminants. 18 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan FIGURE 3: CHARACTERISTICS OF THE AGROECOLOGICAL-LIVELIHOOD ZONES FOR CSA TARGETING  Rainfed zone households Rangeland upland zone • 11% of rural households, 380,000 hh, households smallholder 170,000 • 12% of rural households, 390,000, • have mainly rainfed lands, of which 55% have • practically only irrigated, with 85% of more than 1ha households with only less than 1ha • 61% of households have larger flocks of • 42% have larger flocks of livestock. livestock. Irrigated humid temperate zone households • 27% of rural households, 894,000 hh, 765,000 smallholders • practically only irrigated lands Irrigated arid lowland • only 14% of households have more than zone households: 1ha irrigated land • 38% of households have larger flocks • 18% of rural households, of livestock. 600,000 hh, of which Simplified zone smallholders 330,000 Irrigated humid, temperate Irrigated dry, temperate • have practically only irrigated Irrigated dry, warm lands Rainfed, temperate • 45% of households have more Rangeland, cold than 1ha irrigated land • 20% of households have larger flocks of livestock. Irrigated dry temperate zone households • 29% of rural households, 980,000 hh, 611,000 smallholders • have practically only irrigated lands • 38% of households have more than 1ha irrigated land FAO dedicated HH analysis based FAO DIEM 2023 survey data. Zoning based on FAO IIASA 2022 Land use and climate data • 37% of households have larger flocks of livestock. • Rainfed zone: 11 percent of rural households are are further degrading soils and vegetation. These in these mainly rainfed lands, of which 55 percent anthropogenic pressures have rendered Afghanistan have more than 1 ha of rainfed land, although the as one of the most ecologically vulnerable countries remaining smallholders and a small percentage in the world. of households also have irrigated land. About 61  percent of households have larger herds of 52. Climate change has become a powerful compounding livestock. factor exacerbating the already critical state of land degradation. Rising temperatures, decreasing • Rangeland upland zone: 12  percent of rural and more erratic rainfall, and intensified droughts households that are in these zones have only are accelerating vegetation loss, soil erosion, and irrigated land, of which 85 percent of households desertification. Eastern provinces such as Khost, have less than 1 ha and 42  percent have larger Laghman, and Nuristan—already ecologically herds of livestock. fragile—are experiencing some of the country’s highest temperature increases and more frequent natural disasters such as landslides and flash floods. Land degradation  The loss of forest and rangeland cover in these areas has significantly reduced the land’s capacity 51. Land degradation in Afghanistan presents a severe to retain moisture and resist erosion. The impacts and growing threat to the country’s environment, of this degradation are widespread. Afghanistan’s economy, and food security. Approximately rangelands—covering roughly 30  million ha and 80 percent of the land is at risk of soil erosion, and supporting more than 35 million livestock—are vital most areas have already been classified as degraded. to rural livelihoods, especially among pastoralist Key drivers include overgrazing, deforestation, and agro-pastoralist communities. With productivity unsustainable cultivation of marginal lands, and falling due to land degradation, millions face weak land governance. The conversion of rangelands heightened food insecurity and loss of income. for rainfed wheat cultivation, unregulated timber Deforestation, which has reduced Afghanistan’s harvesting, and unplanned settlement expansion forest cover to just 2 percent of the land area, further Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 19 TABLE 4: STRUCTURE OF RURAL HOUSEHOLD POPULATION IN DIFFERENT AGROCLIMATIC ZONES OF THE COUNTRY  Distribution of HH only Approximate Rate of households Percent of with large Approximate number of in zone with size of total rural flocks in number of HH people Size of land or size of flock size owned land or flocks households country (estimate) (estimate) Irrigated Arid Warm & Temperate 18% 613,251 5,519,260 Land irrigated less than 1ha 55% 10% 334,330 3,008,966 Land irrigated greater than 1ha 45% 8% 278,921 2,510,293 Land irrigated greater than 2ha (subset) 12% 2% 73,237 659,135 Medium livestock flocks 15% 3% 3% 109,853 988,681 Large livestock flocks 6% 1% 1% 39,887 358,987 Irrigated Dry Temperate 29% 980,210 8,821,886 Land irrigated less than 1ha 62% 18% 611,309 5,501,785 Land irrigated greater than 1ha 38% 11% 368,900 3,320,101 Land irrigated greater than 2ha (subset) 12% 4% 119,621 1,076,590 Medium livestock flocks 23% 7% 18% 602,240 5,420,164 Large livestock flocks 14% 4% 11% 355,031 3,195,277 Irrigated Humid Cold-Temperate 27% 894,454 8,050,084 Land irrigated less than 1ha 86% 23% 765,348 6,888,131 Land irrigated greater than 1ha 14% 4% 129,106 1,161,953 Land irrigated greater than 2ha (subset) 4% 1% 38,084 342,759 Medium livestock flocks 28% 7% 20% 655,493 5,899,436 Large livestock flocks 10% 3% 7% 244,922 2,204,300 Rainfed Dry/Humid Temperate/Cold 11% 381,440 3,432,958 Land less than 1ha 45% 5% 170,190 1,531,711 Land greater than 1ha (mainly rainfed) 55% 6% 211,250 1,901,247 Land greater than 2ha (mainly rainfed, subset) 22% 3% 84,460 760,140 Land irrigated greater than 1ha 7% 1% 27,150 244,352 Medium livestock flocks 44% 5% 9% 292,598 2,633,381 Large livestock flocks 17% 2% 1% 43,550 391,947 Rangeland Humid Cold - Temperate 12% 390,595 3,515,354 Land less than 1ha 85% 12% 404,790 3,643,107 Land greater than 1ha 15% 2% 70,300 632,704 Land irrigated greater than 1ha 7% 1% 34,491 310,419 Medium livestock flocks 28% 4% 9% 293,211 2,638,899 Large livestock flocks 14% 2% 4% 141,399 1,272,588 Source: FAO 2023. Household number estimates are based on 43 million total households, at 9 persons per household, with rural households accounting for 70 percent of the total. 20 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan undermines ecosystem services such as groundwater incidence, with over half (52.1  percent) of the recharge, biodiversity conservation, and protection households owning less than 2 jeribs of irrigated from soil erosion. land falling below the poverty line. Even those with larger holdings are not immune, suggesting deeper 53. To reverse these trends, there is a need to promote structural constraints. The situation is further sustainable land management and biodiversity complicated by unresolved land claims from families conservation. This will help restore degraded displaced by decades of conflict, many of whom rangeland and forest, establish inclusive rangeland have returned to find their lands occupied or sold. and forest management associations, and promote These tenure insecurities—especially for vulnerable regenerative grazing practices. Integrating women groups such as returnees and women—exacerbate and marginalized communities into restoration social instability and deter productive investment in activities such as operating small-scale greenhouses agriculture. or participating in value-added agroforestry enterprises is crucial. Equally important is the 56. Rangelands and rainfed lands present a different but need to build institutional and community-level equally pressing set of tenure issues. Pastoralists and resilience. This includes investing in CSA, improving sedentary farmers regularly compete over access natural resource governance, and enhancing to scarce grazing areas, water sources, and arable data and monitoring systems to guide decisions. land—especially in the Central Highlands, where Strengthening the capacity of local authorities long-standing tensions between nomadic Kuchi and and communities to implement landscape-level settled Hazara communities are prevalent. Pasture planning and restoration is essential, especially rights remain poorly defined and unprotected, and as climate change continues to alter Afghanistan’s external pressures—such as drought, population hydrological cycles and vegetation patterns. growth, and urban expansion—have only intensified disputes. The increasing value of peri-urban grazing land has further fueled conflict, while unclear land Land tenure  boundaries and weak enforcement mechanisms continue to prevent resolution. 54. Land tenure and resource use rights remain among the most complex and contentious institutional 57. Underlying many of these challenges are overlapping challenges facing Afghan agriculture and livestock legal frameworks, lack of documentation, and systems. While a majority of households (38 percent) the dominance of informal customary systems. report ownership of irrigated land, many of these Despite some earlier reforms led by the Afghanistan holdings are small—less than 4 jeribs (0.8 ha). Only Independent Land Authority (ARAZI) to improve a minority own larger tracts, and inequalities are tenure security—particularly for women, returnees, especially stark in the distribution of productive, and the private sector—these initiatives have stalled irrigated land. According to a 2003 census cited by since 2021. With up to 90 percent of Afghans relying Masini and Giordani (2016), farm owners with over 10 on customary law for land dispute resolution, ha controlled 70 percent of irrigated land, illustrating the system remains highly vulnerable to power persistent concentration of land among a few imbalances, often disadvantaging women, whose large landholders. Structural disparities also exist land tenure is largely dependent on their marital between mountainous and plain regions, with the or familial ties. Without legal clarity, administrative latter experiencing more unequal land ownership reform, and inclusive dispute resolution, land tenure patterns (Pain 2013). Over time, land fragmentation insecurity will continue to undermine agriculture has accelerated, driven by population growth and and food system resilience in Afghanistan. limited available irrigated land, leading to a decline in average landholding sizes and further intensifying 58. Improving land tenure security in Afghanistan urgently competition over resources. requires several measures. Strengthening land rights policies and procedures is essential to encourage 55. This fragmentation of land is closely tied to poverty greater investment in land improvements and the and food insecurity. ALCS 2016–17 data showed development of efficient land markets. Enhancing a clear correlation between land size and poverty the process of issuing land titles for farmers and the Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 21 agro-industry, along with creating transparent and dynamics. Afghanistan is hydrologically divided into easily accessible digital land records, will further five main river basins based on its surface water support this goal. Building on the successful out-of- drainage systems: the Harirod-Murghab River Basin court dispute settlement processes and integrating (HMRB), Helmand River Basin (HRB), Kabul River these into the legal framework, coupled with proper Basin (KRB), Northern River Basin (NRB), and Panj- regulatory measures, is also crucial. Additionally, Amu River Basin (PARB). Of these, four, all except enhancing the capacity of the ARAZI to effectively the NRB, are transboundary, with rivers flowing into execute its new functions will ensure the success of neighboring countries. During the spring, runoff from these initiatives. snow and glacier melt in the mountains leads to high flows in major rivers such as the Kunduz, Kabul, 59. Improving Afghanistan’s land systems, that is, the Helmand, and Harirod, often triggering floods and rules, institutions, and databases that govern land landslides. For the remainder of the year, however, rights and land use, is foundational to these efforts. the runoff is irregular and generally low. Smaller These systems include the legal frameworks, land rivers behave differently, with many of them flowing agencies, cadastral records, and digital registries for only 3 to 4 months annually. that collectively manage land ownership and transactions. Efficient land systems are critical for 62. Afghanistan’s total surface water potential is economic development, as they facilitate secure estimated at approximately 57  billion cubic meters property rights, better land use planning, and (BCM)/year, with the majority originating from snow the regulation of land markets. Well-functioning and glacier melt—especially in the Panj-Amu and land systems make it easier to do business, Kabul River Basins, which receive substantial input stimulate entrepreneurship, and foster job creation from the high-altitude Hindu Kush and Pamir ranges. by streamlining access to land and reducing Approximately 85  percent of Afghanistan’s water uncertainty. resources originate in the Hindu Kush highlands, fed by seasonal snow and glacier melt. However, 60. Strengthened land systems also unlock private only 30–35  percent of this water is currently capital by allowing landowners to use property as utilized, primarily due to outdated and inadequate collateral, especially when supported by digital infrastructure that limits effective storage, records and transparent processes. This can distribution, and use. Additionally, transboundary significantly improve access to credit, particularly in water management poses a growing challenge, with urban areas. Moreover, securing land rights for women increasing tensions around Helmand River flows is essential to advancing food security and gender to Iran and Amu Darya water allocations among equity. Supporting women with access to land could Central Asian neighbors, underscoring the need for boost agricultural productivity by 20–30  percent, improved regional water governance and investment raise national food output, and improve child welfare in domestic water systems. (FAO 2011b). Promoting CSA also depends on secure land tenure, which incentivizes sustainable land 63. Afghanistan’s agricultural systems are heavily reliant management. Adopting fast, low-cost technologies on variable river flows, which are increasingly under such as satellite imagery, the Global Positioning pressure from climate change. This vulnerability is System (GPS), and computerized data systems can exacerbated by inefficient management of existing accelerate the registration and administration of irrigation systems. Water availability is particularly land rights, ensuring more inclusive and resilient critical in key wheat-producing regions and other development. crop zones that depend on irrigation—largely fed by rainfall, snowmelt, and glacial melt from the highlands of the central regions and the northeastern Water resources  Hindu Kush. 61. Afghanistan’s river basins are the backbone of its 64. Wheat production in intensively irrigated lowland water resources, yet water availability is highly variable areas is closely linked to the availability of water, due to geography, seasonal flows, and transboundary which varies significantly between river basins. 22 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Western and southern irrigated zones—fed by more 65. Compounding these challenges are long-standing erratic river flows—tend to exhibit greater variability irrigation infrastructure and management issues. in wheat area over time, compared to the more stable Poorly maintained canals, distribution losses, basins in the north and east, where water supply inefficient water allocation, and the erosion of benefits from heavier snowfall, glacial reserves, and traditional governance systems all contribute to seasonal monsoon influence. Projections indicate current inefficiencies. Groundwater overextraction an alarming average of 26  percent reduction in further undermines sustainability. In key systems annual surface water volumes, with the most severe such as Nangarhar and Helmand, water losses of declines expected in the northwest (table 5). These 30–40  percent have been recorded. While past shifts are driven by changes in snow and glacial melt, projects have attempted to address these constraints, and the long-term outlook is especially concerning progress has not been sustained in recent years, as contributions from glacier melt to river flows leaving Afghanistan’s agricultural water resilience diminish. critically weakened. TABLE 5: SURFACE WATER VOLUME IN FIVE AFGHAN RIVER BASINS  River basins Surface water volume, Surface water volume, Decrease Projected by Decrease by 1969–1980 (BCM) 2007–2016 (BCM) 1969–2017 (%) 2030 (BCM) 2030 (%) Kabul 19.3 17.10 −11 15.3 −21 Panj-Amu 21.5 18.70 −13 16.2 −25 Helmand 10.4 8.40 −19 7.1 −32 Haririd-Mughab 3.4 2.53 −26 1.7 −50 North 2.1 2.20 −5 2.0 −5 Total 57.0 49.00 213 42.3 226 Source: Shokory, Schaefli, and Lane 2023. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 23 4. FAO/Afghanistan Vulnerability and Projected Impacts of Climate Change  66. This chapter draws extensively on the Afghanistan 69. Climate change will result in higher seasonal and Agroecological Zoning Atlas, developed by the FAO annual temperatures everywhere in Afghanistan, with and the International Institute for Applied Systems higher warming expected under RCP 4.5 compared Analysis (IIASA). The atlas consists of two volumes: to RCP 8.5. Precipitation changes will be somewhat Part  1—Agro-Climatic Indicators (FAO and IIASA less uniform, likely leading to reduced annual levels 2019), which presents detailed maps and data on or, at best, remaining at historical levels. The impact Afghanistan’s climate patterns, including historical of these changes on a farmer’s field will range from trends and climate change projections; and Part 2— very negative to positive, depending on the climate Agroecological Assessments (FAO and IIASA 2022), point of departure—such as altitude, prevailing which analyzes land suitability for various crops and temperature and rainfall in the historical period, farming systems under both current and projected the availability or potential development of reliable climatic conditions. irrigation, as well as soil and terrain conditions. 67. Climate models are based on various GHG emissions scenarios, each representing a different possible future. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) Climate change impacts focus solely on atmospheric GHG concentrations, on agroecological zones  while Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) consider factors such as population growth, 70. Climate change will lead to shifts in AEZs. The economic development, education, urbanization, and transition dynamics among AEZ classes indicate that technological progress, all of which influence future potential multi-cropping opportunities in irrigated emissions. The numbers following the RCP denote areas will expand, provided that sufficient irrigation the anticipated change in radiative forcing (measured water is available at the necessary times. For in watts/m²) from 1750 to the end of the twenty-first example, the share of potential year-round cropping century (2100). on irrigated land is expected to increase from an estimated 14  percent of current irrigated land to 68. RCP 4.5, described by the Intergovernmental Panel more than 20 percent by 2041–2070 and, under rapid on Climate Change (IPCC) as a moderate scenario, climate change, up to 35 percent by 2071–2099. predicts emissions peak around 2040 and then decreases. It aligns with SSP2, also known as 71. Warming will present an opportunity, particularly in the ‘middle of the road’ scenario, where social, the northeastern, central, and west-central regions, economic, and technological trends largely follow where cold and cool temperatures have historically historical patterns without significant changes. limited the number of suitable cropping days each On the other hand, RCP 8.5, equivalent to SSP5, year. In contrast, in the low-lying southern regions, represents the highest baseline emissions scenario, rising growing-season temperatures may have a with emissions continuing to rise throughout the negative impact on crop production potential, even twenty-first century. This scenario envisions a with irrigation. Warming will shorten or eliminate the fossil-fuel-driven development path, marked by winter dormancy period, defined as the time when increasingly integrated global markets, innovation, average daily temperatures fall below 5°C. This shift and participatory societies that prioritize rapid will modify the crop calendar for winter and spring technological advancements and human capital crops and may reduce irrigation needs by adjusting development to achieve sustainable progress. the growth cycle to periods with better soil moisture Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 25 conditions, as commonly observed in winter rainfall the 2050s and 6–13 percent by the 2080s, depending areas. In contrast, the irrigation demand for summer on the climate scenario. The northeastern region is and perennial crops is expected to increase. the only area where average potential wheat yields are expected to increase. Regional yield impacts 72. While the above provides a strong understanding of are detailed in Table  7, while Table  8 presents the key agronomic trends emerging with climate change, combined effects of area and yield changes on the impacts on individual crops will vary significantly. potential national wheat production. These variations will depend on specific temperature requirements and tolerances, the flexibility to adjust crop calendars, the length of crop growth cycles, and the water source, whether rainfed or irrigated. Specific impacts on the production potential land suitability, Climate change impacts yields, and production potential that combines the on cropland suitability aggregate effects on suitability and yields for selected crops are presented below and in annex 1. and yields of rice  74. At the national level, the total area suitable for rice cultivation is projected to change only marginally by Climate change impacts the 2050s under climate change scenarios. However, significant regional variations are expected, with both on cropland suitability gains and losses across different parts of the country. and yields of wheat  By the 2080s, under the high-emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), a 10.6  percent reduction in suitable rice- 73. At the national level, and across most regions, the growing areas is projected, with some increases in area suitable for wheat cultivation increases slightly the central, west-central, and southeastern regions, under climate change. However, the eastern and and substantial declines elsewhere (table  9). southwestern regions are exceptions, where rapid A similar but less severe trend is observed for warming, particularly under RCP 8.5, renders some attainable rice yields, which are expected to decline currently suitable cropland unsuitable for wheat in several regions. This is primarily due to increasingly production in the long term (table 6). Despite these unfavorable temperature conditions, including heat area changes, the ensemble mean projections show stress in low-lying areas during summer, a shift from a decline in national average potential wheat yield japonica to indica rice varieties, and a shortening on suitable land, with reductions of 3–6 percent by of the crop growth cycle. Once adaptive measures TABLE 6: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SUITABILITY OF CROPLAND FOR WHEAT  Regions Change in suitable area relative to historical suitable area period of 1981–2010 (%) RCP2.6 vs Historical RCP4.5 vs Historical RCP6.0 vs Historical RCP8.5 vs Historical 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s 2020s 2050s 2080s Northeastern 6.6 5.3 5.8 4.7 4.6 12.2 5.7 5.4 8.9 4.8 7.1 10.9 Northwestern 11.1 8.9 10.1 4.3 10.6 18.4 7.8 8.5 20.8 3.6 9.5 15.0 Eastern 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 −2.1 Central 5.8 6.3 7.4 6.5 9.0 8.3 5.0 8.0 9.5 6.0 8.4 7.6 West-central 6.3 7.4 7.2 6.7 7.7 9.2 5.1 7.4 9.1 5.9 8.8 5.6 Western 2.2 2.1 5.9 5.7 0.7 5.4 3.8 7.5 6.9 − 8.4 −1.1 8.2 Southeastern 1.0 1.9 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.6 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.9 0.3 Southwestern 4.1 4.3 5.8 3.8 1.5 0.9 6.1 4.2 − 0.5 3.8 0.4 − 8.9 Average 5.6 5.0 6.4 4.5 4.5 8.6 5.3 6.1 8.6 1.3 4.3 6.1 Source: FAO/IIASA 2022 26 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan TABLE 7: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ATTAINABLE WHEAT YIELDS  Regions Potential yield Change in average potential yield relative to 1981–2010 (%) (t/ha) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 1981–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s Northeastern 2.12 6.6 −1.4 4.9 1.8 6.0 2.5 8.3 1.1 Northwestern 2.09 −7.2 −9.5 −13.6 −14.6 −7.1 −13.8 −7.2 −11.0 Eastern 4.33 −7.4 − 8.5 −10.7 −14.3 −10.3 −16.3 −16.0 −25.8 Central 5.21 −1.8 −2.6 −5.5 − 4.8 − 4.3 − 6.4 − 4.8 −10.5 West-central 4.83 −3.1 −3.6 − 4.7 − 6.3 −3.6 −5.7 − 4.9 −11.1 Western 2.16 −3.2 −7.3 −7.7 −9.9 −7.5 −11.5 −5.6 −16.4 Southeastern 5.17 − 4.4 −5.1 −7.8 −9.5 − 6.6 −10.5 −9.9 −18.6 Southwestern 3.20 −5.6 − 8.2 −7.1 −9.5 − 8.2 −10.7 −10.2 −15.6 Average 2.88 23.2 26.3 25.6 29.1 25.3 29.7 25.4 213.4 Source: FAO/IIASA 2022 TABLE 8: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WHEAT PRODUCTION POTENTIAL  Regions Potential production Change relative to potential production of 1981–2010 (%) (million tons) RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 1981–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s Northeastern 1.62 12.3 4.3 9.7 14.2 11.7 11.6 16 12.2 Northwestern 1.67 1.1 − 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.9 4.1 1.7 2.4 Eastern 0.5 −7 −8 −10.4 −13.9 −9.9 −16.3 −16 −27.3 Central 0.94 4.4 4.6 3 3.1 3.4 2.6 3.2 −3.7 West-central 1.21 4.1 3.3 2.6 2.3 3.5 2.9 3.5 − 6.1 Western 1.76 −1.2 −1.9 −7.1 −5 − 0.5 −5.4 − 6.6 −9.5 Southeastern 1.18 −2.6 −3.8 − 6.6 − 8.1 −5.6 −9.1 − 8.3 −18.3 Southwestern 2.22 −1.5 −2.9 −5.8 − 8.7 − 4.3 −11.1 −9.8 −23.1 Total 11.09 1.7 20.3 21.3 21.3 0.5 21.9 21.4 28.1 Source: FAO/IIASA 2022 such as adjusting planting calendars or substituting increases in production potential are expected in rice types are fully utilized, further improvements may the central, west-central, and southeastern regions, depend on the development and adoption of new while declines are projected in all other areas, rice cultivars with enhanced tolerance to heat stress especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario by the 2080s. during critical reproductive phases and to cumulative By the 2050s, regional gains and losses largely heat exposure throughout the growing season. offset one another, resulting in a modest national decline in rice production potential of approximately 75. The combined effects of changes in suitable area 1.9–2.8  percent. However, projections for the 2080s and attainable yields on potential rice production are diverge significantly depending on the emissions summarized in Table 10. Nationally, rice production pathway. Under RCP 4.5, the national reduction capacity is projected to undergo only modest remains small at around 1.8 percent, whereas under changes by the 2050s under climate change, though RCP 8.5, accelerated warming leads to a much regional disparities are considerable. Notable steeper decline of 13.8 percent. These projections do Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 27 TABLE 9: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SUITABLE CROPLAND AND YIELDS FOR PADDY RICE  Regions Suitable area Change relative to 1981–2010 (%) Attainable Change relative to 1981–2010 (%) (1000 ha) yield (t/ha) RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 1981–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s 1981–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s Northeastern 184.4 −4 −5.6 −7.6 −30.7 3.17 − 0.6 − 0.9 − 0.9 0.2 Northwestern 121.7 −1.8 −2.2 −3.7 −13.4 3.05 −2.9 −3.9 −3.9 − 8.9 Eastern 81.7 0.1 − 0.8 −1.8 −7.8 3.29 −1.9 −2.1 −2.8 − 6.7 Central 109.2 18 18.8 18.7 21 3.35 5.6 6.5 6.3 5.7 West-central 165.3 7.8 8.7 9.1 10.8 3.24 2.3 2.3 1.9 0 Western 260.4 − 8.4 −5.9 − 6.2 −19.5 2.92 −1.7 −3.1 −3.9 − 8.5 Southeastern 164.5 9.9 10 10.1 9.3 3.27 0.9 0.9 0.2 −2.4 Southwestern 455.9 −9.8 − 8.4 −9 −19.5 2.94 −3.3 − 4.3 − 4.9 −9 Total/Average 1,543.2 21.7 21.0 21.6 210.6 3.09 20.2 20.8 21.2 23.7 Source: FAO/IIASA 2022 TABLE 10: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON RICE PRODUCTION POTENTIAL AND NET IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTS  Regions Potential production Change relative to 1981–2010 (%) Net irrigation Change relative to 1981–2010 (%) (1000 tons) (mm) RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 1981–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s 1981–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s Northeastern 527 − 4.6 − 6.5 − 8.5 −30.6 612 1.5 2.5 2.5 1.2 Northwestern 334 − 4.6 −6 −7.5 −21.1 739 − 0.4 − 0.1 0.6 −2.5 Eastern 242 −1.8 −2.9 − 4.5 −14 562 8.2 10.1 10.1 11 Central 329 24.7 26.5 26.1 28 456 21.2 26.7 28.6 42.3 West-central 482 10.3 11.2 11.2 10.9 618 9.4 13.3 11.1 18.5 Western 685 −10 − 8.8 −9.9 −26.3 1012 − 4.8 − 6.6 −7.5 −14.8 Southeastern 483 10.9 11 10.4 6.7 561 8.4 13.2 10.7 19.1 Southwestern 1,207 −12.7 −12.3 −13.5 −26.7 886 − 6.2 −9.9 −10.2 −16.1 Total/Average 4,290 21.9 21.8 22.8 213.8 752 21.6 21.7 22.3 24.0 Source: FAO/IIASA 2022 not account for the potentially beneficial effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Climate change impacts on cropland suitability 76. In terms of irrigation, the amount of water required to and yields of potato  realize the simulated production potential increases in the central, west-central, and southeastern regions. 77. At the national level, the total area suitable for potato Minimal changes are observed in the northeastern and cultivation remains relatively stable under three northwestern regions, while irrigation requirements of the four climate scenarios outlined in Table  11. decline in the western and southwestern regions. However, regional shifts are more pronounced, Overall, national average irrigation demand decreases with both increases and decreases in suitability slightly due to shifts in the geographic distribution of depending on location. A significant national-level suitable cultivation areas. decline of approximately 10 percent in suitable area is 28 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan TABLE 11: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CROPLAND SUITABILITY AND YIELDS FOR POTATO  Regions Suitable area Change relative to 1981–2010 (%) Attainable Change relative to 1981–2010 (%) (1000 ha) yield (t/ha) RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 1981–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s 1981–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s Northeastern 405 6.6 12.2 5.2 4.4 2.08 7.4 15.1 14.8 18.9 Northwestern 207 −5.2 −12.6 −17.3 − 40.8 1.51 0.2 0.1 5.1 49.3 Eastern 104 − 0.1 − 4.3 −9.2 − 49.4 4.63 − 0.2 − 0.3 −1.4 −2.8 Central 168 5 3.3 3.1 0.9 4.73 −10 −10.2 −9.9 −9.8 West-central 212 2.2 1.3 0.8 −1 4.44 −11.9 −9.9 −10.1 −2.8 Western 123 3.8 −7 3.2 −19.1 1.89 −13.9 −5.2 −12.7 −5.2 Southeastern 210 −5.6 − 4.2 − 4.6 −9.1 4.53 −7 −5.6 − 4.7 −2 Southwestern 103 −5.8 12.9 12.4 5.9 3.93 −1 −1.5 5 6.5 Total/Average 1531 1.0 1.5 20.7 210.1 3.24 25.0 22.0 21.3 4.7 Source: FAO/IIASA 2022 projected only under the most severe climate change climatic improvements enhance productivity in high- scenario—RCP 8.5 by the 2080s. Regionally, warming is performing areas or if currently less productive areas expected to have the most adverse effects on potato become unsuitable and are excluded from the average. suitability in the northwestern, eastern, and western regions. In contrast, the northeastern and central 78. The combined effects of changes in suitable area and regions show modest gains in suitability across all attainable yields result in a slightly negative overall scenarios. National average attainable potato yields impact on national potato production potential. are projected to remain relatively unchanged, though While increases are projected in the northeastern substantial regional differences persist. These regional and southwestern regions, most other regions are yield changes reflect not only variations in local climate expected to experience declines—particularly the conditions but also shifts in the extent of suitable northwestern, western, southeastern, and eastern land. For example, a region’s average yield may rise if regions (table  12). By the 2050s, the national TABLE 12: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON POTATO PRODUCTION POTENTIAL AND NET IRRIGATION REQUIREMENTS  Regions Potential production Change relative to 1981–2010 (%) Net irrigation Change relative to 1981–2010 (%) (1000 tons) (mm) RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 1981–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s 1981–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s Northeastern 758 14.5 29.1 20.7 24.2 63 0.6 1.1 13.3 13.3 Northwestern 281 −5 −12.5 −13.2 −11.7 151 −13.2 −11.9 −9.3 −1.3 Eastern 434 − 0.3 − 4.6 −10.5 −50.8 124 10 9 9.5 10.8 Central 717 −5.5 −7.3 −7.2 −9 159 −2.6 − 8.5 − 0.8 3.3 West-central 845 −9.9 − 8.7 −9.4 −3.8 234 − 8.7 −9.4 − 6.9 5.3 Western 209 −10.7 −11.8 −9.9 −23.4 246 − 6.9 −11 −7.3 −15 Southeastern 856 −12.2 −9.6 −9.2 −10.9 191 − 0.6 2.1 3.9 18.1 Southwestern 363 − 6.7 11.3 18 12.8 225 − 0.8 −1.6 −2.1 − 0.4 Total/Average 4,463 24 20.6 22 25.9 178 23.6 24.4 21 7.4 Source: FAO/IIASA 2022 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 29 potato production potential is projected to decline temperatures, is projected to continue through the moderately by approximately 2 percent to 4 percent 2080s. In fact, the highest citrus production potential due to climate change. Looking ahead to the 2080s, is observed under the RCP 8.5 scenario in the 2080s, outcomes vary more significantly depending on the primarily due to the steady expansion of areas with emissions pathway: under RCP 4.5, the national little to no frost risk. decline remains modest at around 1  percent, while under RCP 8.5, the impact of accelerated warming leads to a more substantial decrease of about 6  percent. Potatoes are highly sensitive to Climate change impacts elevated temperatures, making them vulnerable to warming trends. As a result, crop calendars will on rangeland production  need to shift toward cooler periods of the year. These 80. Table 15 presents the distribution of rangeland, and adjustments, along with changes in the geographic the areas deemed at least marginally suitable for distribution of suitable cultivation areas, are expected grazing, categorized by region and broad elevation to result in relatively minor changes in net irrigation ranges. The data show that approximately 10  percent requirements. of rangeland classified under the Afghanistan Land Cover Database lies below 1,000  m, 24  percent between 1,000 and 2,000  m, 41  percent between Climate change impacts 2,000 and 3,000  m, and the remaining 25  percent above 3,000 m. The total area assessed as suitable on cropland suitability for grasses and pasture legumes under rainfed and yields of citrus  conditions with low input and management amounts to 24.1  million ha. Among Afghanistan’s 79. As shown in Table  13, the national area suitable for 34 provinces, 5 have over 80  percent of their land citrus cultivation is projected to increase substantially classified as rangeland: Ghor (89 percent), Bamyan by the 2050s, both on land currently used for fruit (86  percent), Panjsher (86  percent), Daykundi trees and vineyards and on existing irrigated cropland. (84  percent), and Wardak (82  percent). Furthermore, Correspondingly, citrus production potential (Table 14) eight provinces: Ghor, Badakhshan, Herat, is also expected to rise. This trend, driven by warming Kandahar, Ghazni, Bamyan, Badghis, and Daykundi TABLE 13: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON SUITABILITY OF CROPLAND FOR CITRUS  Regions Land with fruit trees and orchards Irrigated cropland Suitable area Suitable area ensemble mean Suitable area Suitable area ensemble mean (1000 ha) (1000 ha) (1000 ha) (1000 ha) RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 1961–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s 1961–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s Northeastern 0.2 1.4 1.8 1.7 2.1 29.1 88.3 100.6 87.3 73.4 Northwestern 0.06 0.9 3.5 2.1 5.1 16.1 10.1 35 13.7 26 Eastern 3.4 3.1 2.4 1.8 1.1 87.5 85.4 74.4 67.3 32.7 Central 0 0.1 2 3.5 17.2 0 0.1 9 16 86.7 West-central 0 2.4 5.6 6.5 11.7 0 30.2 83.5 100.8 169 Western 0.03 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.7 2.4 21.7 41.3 25.3 26.4 Southeastern 0.1 0.6 1.4 1.6 2.6 32.4 86.4 124.2 137.4 164.8 Southwestern 3.7 11.5 14.5 13.9 12.8 65.4 100.3 113.7 105.4 76.6 Total 7.4 20.3 32 31.7 53.4 232.9 423.4 581.5 553.1 655.6 Source: FAO/IIASA 2022 30 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan TABLE 14: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON CITRUS PRODUCTION POTENTIAL  Regions Land with fruit trees and orchards Irrigated cropland Potential Potential production Potential Potential production production ensemble mean (1,000 tons) production ensemble mean (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) (1,000 tons) RCP4.5 RCP8.5 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 1961–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s 1961–2010 2050s 2080s 2050s 2080s Northeastern 0.7 4.1 5.4 4.9 5.8 95 270 309 265 210 Northwestern 0.1 2.4 9.4 5.7 14.4 40 26 98 36 72 Eastern 10.2 8.6 7 5.4 3.5 265 248 218 197 96 Central 0 0.2 5.4 9.2 49.7 0 2 24 42 248 West-central 0 6.7 16 18.5 35 0 83 238 287 508 Western 0.1 0.7 2.1 1.3 1.9 6 56 110 65 70 Southeastern 0.3 1.6 3.9 4.6 8 90 241 356 394 495 Southwestern 9.8 32.1 42.4 39.8 37.3 175 276 327 297 220 Total 21.3 56.5 91.6 89.5 155.4 673 1,203 1,681 1,582 1,918 Source: FAO/IIASA 2022 collectively account for 51 percent of the country’s average attainable rainfed pasture yields decrease total rangeland area. with elevation—from approximately 2.4 tons of dry matter (DM) per ha below 1,000  m to just 0.2 tons 81. Table  16 presents estimates of potential biomass of DM per ha above 3,000  m. This trend, observed production and yield for areas classified as across all regions, is primarily due to shorter growing rangeland under the Afghanistan Land Cover seasons and reduced photosynthetic activity at Database, based on simulations using rainfed higher altitudes. However, absolute yield values conditions and low input assumptions for the vary by region depending on local precipitation average climate during 1981–2010. Nationally, levels. Under these conditions, the total potential TABLE 15: LAND SUITABLE FOR GRAZING IN CURRENT RANGELANDS  Regions Classified as rangeland (1,000 ha) Suitable area (1.000 ha) <1000 m 1000– 2000– >3000 m Total <1000 m 1000– 2000– >3000 m Total 2000 m 3000 m 2000 m 3000 m Northeastern 394 739 1,132 2,348 4,613 365 543 701 1,250 2,859 Northwestern 1,194 963 1,114 542 3,814 1,094 817 895 434 3,240 Eastern 84 295 149 623 1,151 77 233 87 356 755 Central 1 234 996 1,060 2,291 — 205 791 716 1,713 West-central — 243 2,056 2,110 4,409 — 201 1,628 1,670 3,499 Western 842 1,901 4,225 713 7,681 779 1,730 3,589 565 6,663 Southeastern 2 392 1,231 90 1,715 2 305 986 65 1,358 Southwestern 346 2,523 1,555 147 4,571 316 2,333 1,307 107 4,063 Total 2,863 7,290 12,458 7,633 30,244 2,633 6,367 9,984 5,163 24,150 Source: FAO/IIASA 2022 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 31 biomass production of suitable rangeland in elevation range. Overall, at the national level, Afghanistan is estimated at 19.2 million tons of DM. rangeland productivity is projected to remain Based on a daily feed requirement of 12.5  kg DM stable or slightly improve under climate change, per livestock unit (LSU) and assuming a 50 percent though with significant regional and altitudinal fodder utilization rate, this production could variation. Positive changes are most likely in the support approximately 2.1  million LSU—roughly northeastern, northwestern, and western regions— one-third of the national livestock herd. particularly at elevations above 2,000  m. In contrast, productivity is expected to decline in low- 82. Table  17 summarizes the simulated impacts of lying areas below 1,000  m, affecting much of the climate change on rangeland production potential, southwestern, southeastern, and eastern regions. highlighting directional changes by region and In the west-central and central regions, where TABLE 16: POTENTIAL BIOMASS PRODUCTION AND YIELD OF CURRENT RANGELAND  Regions Potential biomass production Average potential yield (tons DM/ha) (1,000 tons Dry Matter, DM) <1000 m 1000– 2000– >3000 m Total <1000 m 1000– 2000– >3000 m Average 2000 m 3000 m 2000 m 3000 m Northeastern 881 1,016 452 219 2,568 2.42 1.87 0.65 0.17 0.9 Northwestern 1,780 939 441 78 3,238 1.63 1.15 0.49 0.18 1 Eastern 250 731 121 152 1,254 3.22 3.13 1.39 0.43 1.66 Central 1 472 804 177 1,454 2.49 2.31 1.02 0.25 0.85 West-central — 210 923 418 1,550 n.a. 1.05 0.57 0.25 0.44 Western 1,110 1,630 1,117 91 3,947 1.43 0.94 0.31 0.16 0.59 Southeastern 11 723 1,194 82 2,011 6.14 2.37 1.21 1.27 1.48 Southwestern 180 2,039 900 12 3,131 1.6 1.22 0.6 0.24 0.79 Total/Average 4,213 7,760 5,952 1,229 19,153 2.42 1.87 0.65 0.17 0.9 Source: FAO/IIASA 2022 TABLE 17: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RANGELAND PRODUCTION POTENTIAL  Regions Change of potential biomass production Change of average potential yield TOTAL <1000 m 1000– 2000– >3000 m TOTAL <1000 m 1000– 2000– >3000 m 2000 m 3000 m 2000 m 3000 m Northeastern ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲▲ ▲ ▲▲ ▲▲ ▲▲ Northwestern ▲ ◀▶ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ Eastern ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ◀▶ ▼ ▼▼ ▼ ◀▶ ▲▲ Central ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ◀▶ ▼ ▼ ◀▶ ▼ West-central ▼ n.a. ◀▶ ◀▶ ▼ ◀▶ n.a. ▼ ◀▶ ◀▶ Western ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲▲ ▲ Southeastern ▼ ▼▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼▼ ▼▼ ▼ ▲ Southwestern ▼ ▼▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ TOTAL ◀▶ ▲ ◀▶ ▲ ◀▶ ▲ ◀▶ ◀▶ ▲ ▲ Note: Arrows indicate changes of simulated potential grass biomass production of less than 3% (◀▶), 3%–15% (▼, ▲), 15%–30% (▼, ▲) and more than 30% (▼▼, ▲▲) compared to baseline conditions. 32 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan water availability is already a critical constraint, over time. By focusing on resilience and sustainable rangeland productivity shows little change, even at food system solutions, Afghanistan can build a higher altitudes, despite warming trends. more robust and adaptive food system that ensures food security and safeguards the livelihoods of the 83. The above analyses show that the challenges posed millions of Afghan people. The next chapter focuses by climate change and its cascading impacts on on identifying and prioritizing interventions for food food security in Afghanistan will continue to increase systems resilience. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 33 5. FAO/Afghanistan Interventions for Climate-Resilient and Inclusive Food Systems  84. The development of CSA investment packages for experience, resulting in prioritized, criteria-driven Afghanistan followed a structured process starting intervention packages. These offer a roadmap for with the identification of long lists of potential climate-resilient agricultural development, aligned activities. These were informed by background with both national priorities and the urgent needs of analyses of key agricultural subsectors, previous farming communities under stress from economic, plans and projects, and input from expert regional social, and environmental challenges. teams. Activities were catalogued by subsector such as cereals, horticulture, and livestock using both historical data and cost-benefit evidence from Agribusiness cluster prior evaluations. To prioritize interventions from the long lists, a set of simplified but meaningful development: Opportunities criteria was applied. These criteria aimed to balance agricultural productivity, income generation, job and investment requirements  creation, and inclusion, alongside environmental 86. The identification and development of six sustainability and resilience to climate change. They agribusiness clusters in Afghanistan represent also emphasized outreach to vulnerable groups such a pivotal strategy for revitalizing the country’s as women and nomadic pastoralists, job creation for agricultural sector and unlocking inclusive economic youth, and alignment with national food security growth. These clusters—Northern Plains, Eastern and economic development goals. The inclusion of Zone, Central Highlands, Southern Zone, Western value-added components and potential for private Zone, and the Kabul Region—were defined based sector engagement further shaped the investment on agroecological conditions, production patterns, strategy (table  18). Each intervention was then market access, infrastructure potential, and existing assessed and scored on a 5-point scale against private sector activity. The cluster-based approach is the prioritization criteria (annex 2). Higher-scoring designed to promote regional specialization, support interventions, especially those achieving multiple value chain integration, and catalyze both domestic benefits, were selected as the core components of and foreign investment in agribusiness development the investment packages. (annex 3). 85. The final investment packages aim to be both 87. Northern Plains Cluster. This cluster comprising technically sound and practical, targeting productivity Balkh, Kunduz, and Baghlan is one of Afghanistan’s gains, enhanced resilience, environmental most agriculturally productive regions, characterized rehabilitation, and stronger market linkages. They by large-scale cultivation of wheat, rice, cotton, and also strive for inclusivity, explicitly addressing a variety of fruits and vegetables. Livestock keeping the needs of vulnerable farming populations and is also widespread. The region offers strong potential creating pathways for economic participation, for investment in mechanized farming, water- especially by women and youth. By integrating efficient irrigation systems, and agro-processing these elements, the packages are designed to facilities such as flour mills, rice mills, and cotton support both short-term recovery and long-term ginneries. Livestock value chains, including dairy transformation of Afghanistan’s agrifood systems. and meat, can be strengthened through investment The CSA investment planning approach blended in feed production, cold chains, and veterinary analytical rigor with stakeholder input and practical services. The estimated investment requirement for Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 35 TABLE 18: PRIORITIZATION CRITERIA FOR INVESTMENT PACKAGES  No. Criterion Description 1 Productivity Interventions that significantly improve yields of staple crops, livestock, and other essential commodities for national food security and dietary diversity 2 Income generation Activities that increase farmers’ incomes through market-oriented production and sales, helping both subsistence and commercial farmers reduce poverty and improve livelihoods 3 Inclusivity Measures that can reach a large number of smallholder farmers, especially vulnerable groups such as women, nomadic pastoralists, and youth (with a focus on job creation) 4 Climate resilience Interventions that build resilience to current and future climate shocks through improved practices, technologies, innovations, and systems 5 Environmental benefits Activities that enhance soil health, restore rangelands, improve biodiversity, and increase the efficiency of water and livestock systems, with potential for GHG mitigation 6 Value addition Investments that strengthen value chains, promote agro-processing, attract private sector engagement, and generate employment through economic diversification this cluster is approximately US$300  million in the US$160 million, focused on cold chain infrastructure, short to medium term, primarily for infrastructure community-based enterprises, and feed production. development, modern farming equipment, and medium- to large-scale processing units. 90. Southern Zone Cluster. The Southern Zone comprising Kandahar, Helmand, and Uruzgan is 88. Eastern Zone Cluster. With favorable climatic known for production of premium pomegranates, conditions for horticulture, the Eastern Zone grapes, almonds, melons, and dairy products. encompassing Nangarhar, Laghman, and Kunar Opportunities exist for large-scale processing holds significant promise for high-value cash crops facilities for fresh and dried fruits, juice such as citrus, vegetables, and intensive livestock production, almond packaging, and dairy product production. Investment opportunities include the standardization. Investments in solar-powered cold development of agro-processing units for dried fruits, storage, logistics, and export certification systems juice extraction, vegetable sorting and packaging, will be crucial. This cluster requires an estimated and small-scale dairy and poultry production. US$300 million, with a focus on horticulture Financing of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) commercialization, postharvest handling, and private and improvements in energy access and cold storage sector-led agribusiness expansion. are essential to unlock this region’s export potential. An estimated US$240  million is needed to upgrade 91. Western Zone Cluster. Home to Afghanistan’s value chains, strengthen market linkages, and renowned saffron industry, the Western Zone improve agricultural logistics. consisting of Herat, Badghis, and Farah offers considerable potential in saffron processing, 89. Central Highlands Cluster. Renowned for potatoes, branding, and export enhancement. In addition, apples, apricots, and dairy products, the Central grapes, dried fruits, and dairy are key products that Highlands, including Bamyan and Daikundi can benefit from investment in modern processing cluster, is well suited for import substitution and and packaging facilities. Development of local the development of value-added agribusinesses. machinery production, SME support, and improved Investments in cold storage, solar-powered access to energy and finance are also needed. refrigeration, and potato processing for products An investment of US$250  million is estimated such as chips can reduce postharvest losses and open to strengthen this region’s competitiveness and new markets. Supporting women’s participation enhance value chain efficiency. in dairy cooperatives and improving access to extension services are essential components. The 92. Kabul Region Cluster. With good road connectivity estimated investment requirement for this cluster is and proximity to urban markets, the Kabul Region 36 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan covering Kabul, Parwan, Wardak, Logar, Paktika, 95. Islamic banks and financial institutions are and Ghazni is ideal for scaling up high-value crops particularly important in Afghanistan’s financial such as apples, grapes, apricots, pine nuts, and landscape. By offering instruments such as Murabaha vegetables. Opportunities include establishing (cost-plus financing), Ijara (leasing), and Salam aggregation and packaging centers, cold storage (advanced purchase agreements), these institutions facilities, and urban-based peri-urban commercial facilitate culturally appropriate access to capital farms. Enhancing digital platforms for market access for farmers and agri-entrepreneurs. Islamic finance and investing in logistics and storage infrastructure mechanisms can be scaled through dedicated credit are key to realizing the full potential of this cluster. lines and partnerships with microfinance institutions The region is projected to require US$250  million and community-based cooperatives. investments to modernize supply chains and support agri-entrepreneurship. 96. International agribusinesses and foreign investors bring critical expertise, technology, and market access. These actors can play a transformative role in developing export-oriented processing Private capital mobilization  and packaging industries, particularly for high- value crops such as saffron, grapes, almonds, and 93. Mobilizing private sector investment is essential pomegranates. With appropriate risk mitigation and for unlocking the full potential of Afghanistan’s regulatory support, foreign investors can strengthen agribusiness clusters, which span the Northern supply chains, standardize quality, and enhance Plains, Eastern Zone, Central Highlands, Southern Afghanistan’s competitiveness in regional and global Zone, Western Zone, and the Kabul Region. These markets. clusters offer regionally tailored opportunities for commercial agriculture, value-added processing, 97. Crucially, the role of international development and agri-logistics. Realizing these opportunities, finance institutions cannot be overstated. The however, requires targeted financing, risk mitigation, International Finance Corporation (IFC) is uniquely and strategic partnerships. Ending poverty and positioned to catalyze private investment through its hunger globally will require an estimated US$140 blended finance instruments, equity co-investments, billion in additional annual financing, of which and advisory services. IFC can work directly with US$50 billion is expected from the private sector commercial banks to extend credit to agribusinesses (World Bank 2018). This reflects a leverage ratio while also partnering with local and foreign firms to of 1.8:1, meaning that every US$1.80 in public strengthen value chains and improve operational investment could mobilize US$1 in private financing. efficiency. Its involvement sends a strong signal to Applying this ratio, an investment of US$1.5 billion in other investors, helping de-risk projects and expand Afghanistan’s agribusiness clusters could potentially the pipeline of bankable agribusiness ventures. attract an additional US$834  million from private sources, underscoring the critical role of coordinated 98. In parallel, the Multilateral Investment Guarantee public-private investment approaches. Agency (MIGA) plays a vital role in de-risking foreign and domestic investments by offering political risk 94. A range of actors—including SMEs, Islamic financial insurance and credit enhancement tools. MIGA’s institutions, international agribusinesses, and guarantees can help mitigate risks associated with global development finance institutions—play currency inconvertibility, expropriation, conflict, complementary roles in capital mobilization. SMEs and contract enforcement—critical concerns in serve as the cornerstone of local agribusiness fragile environments such as Afghanistan. By ecosystems. With adequate access to capital and protecting commercial lenders and equity investors, technical support, they can spearhead investments MIGA supports the inflow of long-term capital into in aggregation centers, cold storage, solar-powered infrastructure, processing, and logistics, aligned with facilities, and small-scale processing units, especially agribusiness development. in high-potential value chains such as dairy, dried fruits, vegetables, and poultry. Their agility and deep 99. To effectively mobilize capital, several investment integration into local economies make them ideal mechanisms must be leveraged in tandem. agents for driving innovation and inclusive growth. These include blended finance, which combines Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 37 concessional resources with private investment to functional labs are currently lacking—and providing improve risk-return profiles; guarantee schemes the necessary tools and equipment to the research to unlock commercial lending; and public-private stations. These measures are essential to improve partnerships (PPPs) for large-scale infrastructure the analysis, mitigation, and dissemination of such as agro-industrial parks, storage hubs, and technologies that address climate shocks. irrigation systems. The integration of Islamic finance and digital platforms can further enhance financial 103. To enhance effectiveness, stronger coordination inclusion and investment reach, particularly in is needed within the MAIL, led by the General underserved rural areas. Directorate of Planning. Additionally, collaboration with the National Environmental Protection Agency 100. In summary, scaling investment in Afghanistan’s (NEPA) is crucial for climate change analysis, policy agribusiness clusters requires an orchestrated effort development, and setting strategic priorities. NEPA involving local entrepreneurs, financial institutions, plays a central role in managing climate-related international investors, and global development data and coordinating among stakeholders involved actors. By aligning incentives, reducing risk, and in addressing climate shocks and implementing deploying innovative finance tools, the private sector relevant programs. can drive a resilient and inclusive transformation of the country’s food and agricultural systems. 104. Delivery of climate information services and advisories. The Afghanistan Meteorology Department (AMD) plays a critical role in seasonal Agricultural research forecasting and the dissemination of early warning reports. However, to effectively support extension and development  services and enable farmers to anticipate and mitigate climate shocks, there is a pressing need 101. Supporting Afghanistan’s Research and Development to expand and modernize weather forecasting (R&D) units is critical to the success of the CSAAP. stations and strengthen institutional capacity. While These units play a central role in generating, Kabul Agricultural Faculty is developing models testing, and scaling innovative technologies and to anticipate climate change impacts, further practices tailored to local agroecological conditions. investments in training and technical support are Strengthening their capacity through targeted essential to improve the accuracy and accessibility of investments in infrastructure, skilled personnel, and these models. Equally important is the integration of collaborative research will enable the development of climate change and CSA content into the curricula climate-resilient crops, improved livestock systems, of agricultural faculties across the country. With and efficient natural resources management (NRM) approximately 800 faculty members currently in strategies. Supporting these institutions ensures place, these institutions have significant potential evidence-based decision-making and equips farmers to build a new generation of students and extension with the tools needed to adapt to and mitigate the agents equipped with the knowledge and skills impacts of climate change. to promote CSA practices through research and outreach. 102. The Agricultural Research Institute of Afghanistan (ARIA) operates under three main directorates: the 105. To help Afghan farming communities adapt to Adoption and Basic Research Directorate, the Soil climate change in the near term, localized awareness Research Directorate, and the Livestock Research and capacity-building initiatives are crucial. This Directorate. It manages 20 regional research stations includes establishing district-level training centers across the country. These directorates, through the to provide hands-on learning opportunities and research stations, are tasked with developing and tailored support. Public awareness campaigns delivering new techniques and technologies to should accompany these efforts, not only to promote address and reduce the impacts of climate change. CSA technologies but also to link them with broader Their efforts focus on three priority areas: building goals such as improving food and nutrition security. the capacity of researchers to align their work with These campaigns should include education on CSA priorities, establishing laboratories for disease nutrition, food preparation, and utilization while also management and input quality control—given that offering guidance on livelihoods, value addition, and 38 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan enterprise development in agriculture. Additionally, 108. Livestock research and development. There is an identifying and promoting local economic urgent need to strengthen Afghanistan’s livestock opportunities—such as cultivating medicinal plants sector to better cope with the impacts of climate for niche markets—can diversify income sources and change, particularly through the improvement of enhance resilience in vulnerable communities. livestock breeds and practices under a comprehensive One Health strategy. This effort requires focused 106. Crops research and development. Under the investment and institutional support within the Adaptive and Basic Research Directorate, a major Livestock Research Directorate. A key step will be priority is the development and dissemination of the establishment of dedicated livestock research climate-smart agricultural technologies to help stations across major AEZs, including Herat, Balkh, farming communities cope with the increasing Kunduz, Helmand, Nangarhar, and Kabul provinces. impacts of climate change. Innovation in this area These stations will serve as hubs for research, hinges on the advancement of basic research innovation, and dissemination of climate-smart programs, particularly in modern laboratories livestock technologies tailored to local conditions. dedicated to variety development. Introducing drought-resistant and climate-resilient crop varieties, 109. To support these research stations, it is essential especially for rainfed agriculture, is urgently needed. to develop diagnostic and disease identification However, there is a growing risk of losing traditional laboratories, along with a central vaccine production wheat and cereal landraces and germplasm, which facility in Kabul. Building the technical capacity of form the foundation of research and breeding staff is equally important and should be pursued programs. To prevent this, ex situ conservation in through a mix of short-, medium-, and long-term a well-maintained national Gene Bank is essential. training programs to reorient research and Additionally, the potato tissue culture program, field activities toward climate-smart livestock previously supported by the FAO, has become weak development. In addition, establishing livestock product quality control laboratories and equipping and nonfunctional, requiring renewed attention and quarantine stations with functional testing investment in tissue culture laboratories. While the facilities will be critical to ensure effective disease FAO continues to support adoption research and the management, support livestock value chains, and seed sector, sustained and expanded engagement is enhance market access for Afghan producers. critical to ensure long-term functionality and impact. 107. Water availability and management remain central to climate resilience in agriculture. To mitigate the Stakeholder consultations effects of extreme weather, it is essential to refine and promote climate-smart practices that include water and validation  harvesting during the wet season, improved on-farm 110. Stakeholder engagement was central to the water efficiency, and the use of drought-tolerant crop development, refinement, and validation of the varieties. Innovations must also focus on developing CSAAP, ensuring that the process was grounded in and promoting locally appropriate machinery such national realities, institutional perspectives, and as seed drills, laser levelling tools, and technologies practical experience from the field. Multiple rounds for sustainable rice and wheat intensification (SRI/ of structured consultations were conducted to guide SWI). Meanwhile, the increased frequency of climate methodological development, prioritize investment extremes is expected to heighten the threat of pests needs, validate findings, and align proposed and diseases, an area under the mandate of the interventions with stakeholder expectations. These Plant Protection and Quarantine Directorate (PPQD). engagements brought together technical experts, Although the Afghanistan Agricultural Inputs Project public sector institutions, and private sector actors, (AAIP), funded by the World Bank, has established each contributing distinct insights to shape a a network of laboratories and quarantine facilities, comprehensive and credible action plan. most remain unequipped and nonfunctional. These labs require urgent upgrading to enable 111. The first major consultation was held in June effective plant protection and safeguard agricultural 2024, in the form of a one-day national technical productivity workshop attended by 40 representatives from all Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 39 major departments and directorates of the MAIL. commercial viability and scalability of proposed This workshop reviewed preliminary findings interventions in horticulture, livestock, and value and discussed core methodological approaches chain development. The forum helped ensure that and investment priorities. Participants provided the CSAAP’s agribusiness strategy addressed key feedback on the structure and composition of barriers to private sector participation, such as access proposed intervention packages, drawing attention to finance, input quality, market infrastructure, and to region-specific priorities, institutional support service delivery, thereby enhancing the Action Plan’s requirements, and technical refinements that could investment readiness and potential for leveraging enhance implementation feasibility. blended finance. 112. This was followed by a broader stakeholder review 115. These multilevel consultations ensured that the meeting in September 2024, which included CSAAP methodology and investment framework representatives from FAO technical units, provincial were both technically robust and broadly endorsed. agricultural departments, development partners, They helped translate data and analysis into and other sectoral agencies. This round of actionable, context-sensitive investment plans with consultation provided an opportunity to validate a strong foundation of institutional and stakeholder sectoral priorities, estimate cost ranges, and ensure ownership. that the recommended investment packages were aligned with field-level realities. Importantly, stakeholders helped assess the robustness of Adaptation phases for criteria used to prioritize interventions—such as climate resilience, productivity, inclusion, and long-term resilience environmental co-benefits—and their applicability across Afghanistan’s AEZs. of the food systems  116. Following the prioritization of interventions, it is 113. To further strengthen the methodology and essential to sequence them strategically across investment framework, a follow-up technical the adaptation phases to ensure coherence, session was organized in February 2025. This effectiveness, and long-term impact. This focused on finalizing cost estimates, refining sequencing provides a roadmap for action, enabling scale-up assumptions, and reviewing the proposed stakeholders to respond to immediate needs sequencing of interventions. Particular attention was while steadily advancing toward more sustainable given to assessing financing needs under different and resilient food systems. It allows for a logical scenarios and incorporating updated stakeholder progression from immediate, low-cost actions that perspectives gathered through the FAO’s ongoing address urgent vulnerabilities to more complex and field operations and regional networks. resource-intensive interventions that drive systemic and transformative change. By aligning interventions 114. Furthermore, a private sector consultative forum with the short-, medium-, and long-term phases of jointly organized by the World Bank and IFC adaptation, stakeholders can optimize resource was convened in May 2025 to foster dialogue allocation, build institutional capacity over time, on agribusiness development and validate the and create the enabling conditions necessary for agribusiness cluster component of the CSAAP. sustained resilience. This phased approach ensures Emphasizing the World Bank’s strategic shift that early gains are consolidated, while setting the toward deeper private sector engagement, the foundation for more ambitious shifts in agricultural meeting underscored the importance of inclusive practices, food systems governance, and rural collaboration to unlock investment opportunities in livelihoods. agriculture. The forum included participants MAIL, Ministry of Finance, UN agencies, agribusiness firms, 117. Afghanistan’s food systems face increasing pressure input suppliers, processors, traders, and financial from climate change, natural resource degradation, intermediaries as well as representatives from and economic volatility. To address these complex chambers of commerce and producer organizations. challenges and ensure long-term food security, a Their inputs were instrumental in verifying the phased adaptation framework is essential. This 40 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan framework consists of three progressive stages— Digital innovation, including precision agriculture incremental, systemic, and transformative—each and climate advisory tools based on artificial aligned with specific timelines, investment needs, intelligence (AI), becomes increasingly important. and implementation strategies (table 19). Systemic adaptation demands policy reform, cross- sectoral coordination, and considerable funding, but 118. The first stage, incremental adaptation, focuses on it lays the groundwork for transformative change. short-term measures over a one- to five-year horizon. These are small-scale, localized interventions 120. The final phase, transformative adaptation, takes designed to reduce risks while preserving the place over a period exceeding 10 years and involves current food system structure. Actions during this fundamental changes in how food is produced and phase emphasize improved management practices, how rural livelihoods are structured. It requires a particularly the use of climate-resilient and nutrient- shift from monocropping to diversified and climate- rich crops that can withstand variable rainfall and resilient farming systems that can withstand temperature extremes. Strengthening animal health long-term environmental stress. Large-scale services and fodder management supports pastoral landscape restoration efforts, including watershed livelihoods, while better postharvest storage reduces rehabilitation and reforestation, contribute to soil food losses and enhances availability. Traditional health and water security. This phase also includes irrigation techniques such as karez rehabilitation facilitating livelihood transitions for vulnerable and small-scale drip irrigation improve water use groups such as pastoralists and rainfed farmers, efficiency. While these interventions are relatively enabling them to shift into alternative, climate- easy to implement using local knowledge, farmer resilient economic activities. Overhauling water cooperatives, and nongovernmental organization infrastructure, with investments in storage systems, (NGO) support, their impact remains limited to short- desalination, and resource-efficient technologies, term relief without inducing structural change. is central to ensuring sustainability. Transformative adaptation relies on strong governance, sustained 119. Systemic adaptation, which spans a six- to ten- international partnerships, and access to climate year time frame, focuses on institutional, policy, finance. Although its impact is gradual and long and market-level reforms that enable broader food term, it is critical for ensuring generational resilience system resilience. This phase aims to integrate and food system transformation. agroecological practices and more diverse farming systems, such as conservation agriculture, 121. Taken together, these three phases provide a intercropping, and agroforestry. Significant comprehensive pathway for building resilient food investments in rural infrastructure—roads, cold systems in Afghanistan. Each phase responds to storage, irrigation networks, and processing units— different scales of risk and opportunity, offering are needed to reduce vulnerability and enhance a logical sequence from immediate relief to deep connectivity. Addressing land tenure inequalities structural change. For lasting impact, interventions and improving access to productive resources are must be integrated, adequately funded, and also key to achieving sustainable land use. This responsive to the needs of local communities. phase introduces financial instruments such as Through coordinated action across these phases, weather-indexed insurance and microfinance, while Afghanistan can transition toward a more resilient, embedding climate risk into agricultural policies. inclusive, and sustainable food future. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 41 TABLE 19: ADAPTATION PHASES TOWARD ENSURING LONG-TERM RESILIENCE OF AFGHANISTAN’S FOOD SYSTEMS  Adaptation Timescale Description Interventions Implementation phase (years) considerations Incremental Short term, Small-scale, Focus on food and nutrition security Requires minimal policy 1–5 localized changes using climate-resilient and nutrient- change but depends on that maintain rich crops, adoption of drought- training, local knowledge, the existing food tolerant varieties and short-season and availability of resources. system structure crops to cope with shifting rainfall Can be rapidly implemented while reducing patterns; Strengthening animal through local extension risks. They typically health services and improved fodder services, NGOs, and farmer involve improved management to support pastoral cooperatives. management livelihoods; Use of better postharvest practices and storage techniques to reduce losses Provides immediate relief efficiency gains. and improve food availability; Water but has limited long-term conservation techniques, including transformative impact. expansion of traditional irrigation methods such as karez rehabilitation and small-scale drip irrigation. Systemic Medium term, These Agroecological and integrated Requires policy reforms, 6–10 interventions aim farming systems such as expansion institutional coordination, to modify broader of conservation agriculture, and significant financial institutional, intercropping, and agroforestry investment. policy, and market practices; Climate-resilient Impact begins in the medium systems to enhance infrastructure development term but lays the foundation resilience across including investments in roads, cold for long-term resilience. the food system. storage, irrigation networks, and food processing units; Addressing Can be supported by inequities in land ownership and PPPs, donor funding, and access to natural resources to ensure government-led programs. sustainable land use; Market-based and financial Instruments such as scaling up weather-indexed insurance and microfinance solutions for smallholder farmers; Mainstreaming climate risk into agricultural policies and improving early warning systems; Adoption of AI-based climate advisory tools, precision farming, and digital marketplaces. Transformative Long term, This level of Transitioning from monocropping to Requires strong governance, >10 adaptation involves climate-resilient diversified farming sustained financial fundamental shifts systems; Large-scale landscape investment, and institutional in food system restoration; Economic and livelihood support. structures, leading transitions such as supporting Impact is multigenerational, to new models pastoralists and rainfed farmers to ensuring long-term food of production, transition into alternative climate- security and resilience. livelihoods, and resilient livelihoods; Large-scale value chains for water management and irrigation Requires international climate resilience. overhaul, including investing in water cooperation, technology storage infrastructure, desalination transfer, and climate finance technologies, and watershed investments. restoration. 42 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan FAO/Afghanistan Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 43 6. FAO/Afghanistan The Costs of Action, Inaction, and Investment Packages  Cost of action  and localized forage development support. They do not include investments in broader pasture 122. Transforming Afghanistan’s national agriculture and management or large-scale rangeland development. food systems into a more productive, resilient, and For intensive livestock production systems, the climate-adaptive sector over the next 10  years will estimates encompass a more comprehensive require an estimated investment of US$7.4 billion package, including forage development, improved (table 20). These costs are organized into six priority feeding practices, veterinary services, and livestock areas, each reflecting critical interventions necessary housing. The estimates for livestock processing and to strengthen food security, enhance livelihoods, and marketing account for support in processing animal build resilience across the agricultural value chain. products, procurement of relevant equipment, and marketing activities (annex 4c). Climate-smart crop production Integrated natural resources 123. The assessment of investment costs entailed management evaluating the gap between current crop production and population-based dietary requirements, using 125. NRM is being approached through a comprehensive per capita consumption as a benchmark. It then and integrated investment strategy that addresses estimated the land required to close this gap under both water and land resources. The improved water existing productivity levels and explores how CSA management initiative focuses on developing practices such as improved seed varieties, soil major new water supply infrastructure for irrigation, management, and water-efficient irrigation can reduce including conveyance systems, large canals, additional land needs through yield improvements. major weirs, and small dam storage. Designed Comparisons are made between business-as-usual to cover 500,000 ha, this effort is expected to and CSA-enhanced scenarios to identify the most benefit approximately 1  million households. With efficient path forward. Investment needs based on an estimated unit cost of US$2,500/ha, the total unit costs are quantified for adopting CSA technologies investment required amounts to US$1.25 billion. and rehabilitating irrigation systems to support sustainable intensification. The analysis also includes 126. In parallel, an estimated US$1.32 billion is earmarked a targeted 25  percent expansion in fruit-growing for broader NRM, targeting landscape restoration and areas to promote export growth (annexes 4a and 4b). sustainable land use. This includes the restoration and management of 400,000 ha of subtropical dry forests, 750,000 ha of rangelands, and 1.5 million ha of Improved livestock management grasslands. The investment also supports agroforestry and catchment treatment activities across an 124. The investment costs covered extensive livestock additional 500,000 ha. Together, these efforts form a production systems, intensive livestock production cohesive integrated natural resources management systems, and livestock processing and marketing. framework aimed at enhancing ecosystem services, For extensive livestock production systems, the cost improving agricultural productivity, and building estimates cover only essential veterinary services resilience to climate change (annex 4d). Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 45 TABLE 20: CSA INVESTMENT COSTS  agricultural sector that can support sustainable growth and improve food security (annex 4e). No Interventions US$, millions 1 Climate-smart crop production 2,091 Integrated climate and market 2 Improved livestock management 1,030 information services 3 Agribusiness development 1,500 129. A dedicated investment of US$30 million in climate 4 Integrated natural resources management 2,475 and weather information services will support the 5 Agricultural research and development 149 development of integrated agroweather forecasting 6 Integrated climate and market information 30 tools and market information systems, designed services to help Afghan farmers navigate the growing challenges posed by climate variability and change. Total 7,375 This initiative aims to enhance farmers’ capacity to make informed decisions—on what to produce, when, where, and how—by equipping them with Agribusiness development timely, accurate, and location-specific information. The agroweather component of the investment will 127. The US$1.5 billion reflected in the investment significantly bolster Afghanistan’s long-term capacity framework represents the public cost associated to adopt CSA technologies and sustain productivity with enabling and supporting private agribusiness under shifting climatic conditions. It will include the development across Afghanistan’s six regional installation of new automated weather stations, clusters. This public financing is intended to cover establishment of regional agrometeorological critical public goods and services—including land centers, and development of climate-resilient access facilitation, infrastructure development, advisory systems powered by big data analytics regulatory support, and the provision of incentives and AI. These services will provide tailored, forward- and risk mitigation instruments. These funds will looking insights into weather trends, growing be used to create an enabling environment that conditions, and risk management strategies. attracts private capital into value chain investments in production, processing, agrologistics, and market 130. In parallel, the market information systems technologies. By absorbing up-front costs and component will be developed to collect, analyze, and addressing market failures, the public investment will disseminate real-time data on market conditions, help de-risk private sector participation and catalyze prices, demand trends, and value chain dynamics. large-scale, long-term agribusiness transformation This will support farmers to align production in the country. Details are provided in annex 3. with market opportunities, reduce postharvest losses, and improve profitability. Together, these investments will create a robust digital backbone for Agricultural research and development informed, climate-resilient agricultural planning and market engagement. 128. A total investment of US$149 million is required to strengthen Afghanistan’s agricultural R&D system. This comprehensive investment will support institutional capacity building, infrastructure Cost of inaction  enhancement, development of climate-smart technologies, and human capital development. 131. Investing in the CSAAP is not only economically Key priorities include strengthening the Agriculture prudent but an urgent necessity to prevent substantial Research Institute of Afghanistan, upgrading regional future losses. The total cost of action across research stations, promoting innovation in crop CSAAP’s five pillars—Climate-Smart Agriculture and livestock technologies, training researchers (US$3.1  billion), Integrated Natural Resources and extension agents, and establishing localized Management (US$2.6  billion), Agribusiness training centers across the country. Together, these Development (US$1.5  billion), Agriculture R&D efforts aim to build a resilient, knowledge-driven (US$149 million), and Climate and Market Information 46 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Services (US$30  million)—amounts to US$7.4  billion. rural regions of Afghanistan. The CSAAP presents These targeted investments are essential to a compelling and time-sensitive investment improve productivity, resilience, sustainability, and opportunity. With every dollar spent offering inclusiveness across agrifood systems. substantial returns in avoided damages, enhanced productivity, and long-term resilience, the cost of 132. In stark contrast, the cost of inaction is estimated inaction is unaffordable. Urgent, sustained, and well- at US$39.6 billion—more than five times the prioritized investments are not only justified, but required investment (table  21 and annex 5). The they are also indispensable for building a sustainable most substantial foregone benefits would arise future for agriculture, people, and the planet. in NRM (US$16 billion), CSA (US$14 billion), and agribusiness development (US$8.5 billion). Even the least capital-intensive pillars, such as agricultural Investment packages  R&D and information services, would incur losses of US$709  million and US$363 million, respectively, if 135. The investment packages have been carefully neglected. On average, the cost of action represents prepared in response to Afghanistan’s urgent food just 19 percent of the cost of inaction, making a clear security and livelihood resilience challenges. Though economic case for immediate intervention. referred to as ‘projects’, this term understates their true ambition and scope. These packages are, in fact, 133. The data also reveal that certain interventions, comprehensive, multi-year investment strategies despite requiring minimal investment, offer designed to catalyze systemic transformation disproportionately high returns. For example, across Afghanistan’s food and agricultural systems. climate and market information services need only Their goal extends beyond implementing isolated US$30  million but could avert losses exceeding interventions—they are designed to lay the foundation 10  times that amount. Similarly, agriculture R&D for long-term resilience, inclusive economic recovery, shows a 5:1 benefit-to-cost ratio. These findings and sustainable development. Through coordinated highlight both the urgency and high-impact action and strategic investment, these initiatives potential of even modest investments, particularly seek to address immediate needs while also building in knowledge, innovation, and decision-support the institutional and infrastructural capacity required infrastructure. for a more secure and self-reliant future. 134. The implications for policy are clear: delaying action significantly increases long-term costs and reduces Investment Package 1: Food Systems the effectiveness of future interventions. Strategic Resilience Project (US$450 million) prioritization and scaling, especially in CSA and integrated resource management can mitigate 136. The Food Systems Resilience Project is an initiative climate risks, enhance food and water security, and aimed at strengthening Afghanistan’s agricultural create economic opportunities. Failure to invest backbone by addressing chronic food insecurity now would deepen vulnerability, erode productivity, and enhancing climate resilience. The project is and entrench poverty, especially in climate-exposed designed to expand into agroecologically suitable TABLE 21: COSTS OF ACTION VERSUS INACTION FOR THE ACTION PLAN  Climate-smart Integrated natural Agribusiness Agriculture Climate and market Total agriculture resources management development R&D information services Cost of action 3,121 2,475 1,500 149 30 7,375 (US$, millions) Cost of inaction 14,000 16,008 8,500 709 363 39,580 (US$, millions) Action/Inaction 22% 16% 18% 21% 8% 19% Note: CSA combines the costs for improved crops and livestock production. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 47 areas that have not been previously served by major public and community based, will deliver training on interventions such as the EFSP. In doing so, it will help CSA, postharvest handling, and improved farming close geographic gaps in agricultural development practices. These efforts will be crucial to scaling and ensure that vulnerable and underserved farming innovations and ensuring that farmers have timely communities are brought into the fold of national access to technical support. resilience-building efforts. 142. A major strategic objective of the project is to reduce 137. Central to the project is the goal of increasing cereal postharvest losses through improved storage, drying, productivity through the widespread adoption and processing infrastructure. These interventions of climate-resilient, high-yielding seed varieties. will enhance the national cereal balance by reducing These improved inputs will be tailored to withstand waste along the supply chain and increasing increasingly unpredictable rainfall and temperature food availability, especially during lean seasons. extremes while also enhancing yields in fragile Additionally, this will support smoother market rainfed systems. The introduction of short-cycle and functioning and stabilize grain prices in rural and nutrient-dense crop varieties will contribute not only urban markets alike. to household food availability but also to improved dietary quality and overall nutrition. 143. Finally, the project will invest in revitalizing the domestic milling industry to strengthen Afghanistan’s 138. The project will promote agricultural mechanization food self-sufficiency. By expanding wheat milling across the target areas to address severe labor capacity and upgrading processing equipment, the shortages and low production efficiency. Mechanized project will add value locally, create employment planting, harvesting, and postharvest operations opportunities, and reduce reliance on imported will enhance productivity, reduce drudgery, and flour. Collectively, these interventions form a support the scaling-up of farm operations, especially comprehensive package that addresses immediate in areas with growing demand for local cereals. food security needs while laying the foundation for Mechanization will also contribute to cost reductions a more climate-resilient and self-reliant agricultural for farmers and better integration into commercial system. value chains. 139. Water management will be another key priority, Investment Package 2: Horticulture given Afghanistan’s increasing exposure to drought. The project will improve irrigation efficiency through Commercialization Project small-scale interventions such as drip systems and (US$350 million) the rehabilitation of traditional water infrastructure like karez. These methods are both culturally 144. The Horticulture Commercialization Project is accepted and cost-effective, allowing communities a transformative initiative designed to unlock to better manage water scarcity while stabilizing the economic, nutritional, and export potential agricultural outputs. of Afghanistan’s high-value fruit and vegetable sector. Horticulture already plays a critical role 140. To diversify farming systems and enhance in rural incomes, but systemic inefficiencies and resilience, legumes will be integrated into cereal- infrastructure gaps prevent the sector from reaching based production systems. Legume intercropping its full potential. This project aims to modernize and rotation improve soil fertility, reduce pest horticultural value chains and reposition the sector cycles, and contribute to better-balanced diets. as a driver of inclusive rural development and This diversification strategy also lowers the risks international trade. associated with monocropping and helps build agroecological resilience in the face of growing 145. The project will invest comprehensively along the climate uncertainties. horticulture value chain—from production and harvest to processing, transport, and market access. 141. Investments in agricultural research and extension Key infrastructure improvements will include cold will accelerate the adoption of new practices and storage facilities, solar-powered processing units, technologies. Strengthened extension services, both and packaging centers, all of which are critical to 48 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan reducing postharvest losses and improving quality. marketing will boost competitiveness in regional These investments will be prioritized in high- markets, increasing foreign exchange earnings and potential areas with established production systems rural employment. and strong market linkages. 151. While positioned as a development ‘project’, the 146. A central feature of the project is its geographic Horticulture Commercialization Project functions targeting strategy, which concentrates investment as a catalytic investment strategy that will activate a in zones with the greatest agroecological and broad ecosystem of public, community-based, and commercial potential. By doing so, the project will private sector actors. The implementation of this foster economies of scale, reduce per unit investment package will require coordinated engagement across costs, and create the critical mass needed to attract key stakeholders in the horticulture value chain. private investors. This focus will also ensure that On the public side, the Government of Afghanistan government and donor funds are used efficiently will play a leading role through institutions such and effectively, with tangible returns in the short and as the Perennial Horticulture Development medium term. Centers, which conduct vital R&D for both fruit and vegetable varieties. Extension agents specializing 147. The project will directly leverage private sector in fruits and vegetables will be instrumental in activity by aligning with the agribusiness clusters disseminating improved practices to farmers, already identified in key provinces. These clusters while government market promotion agencies and offer a platform for scaling investments in value quarantine and quality control laboratories will addition, agri-logistics, and export-oriented ensure that Afghan produce meets domestic and production. Collaboration with agribusinesses, international standards. At the community level, cooperatives, and traders will foster stronger strong partnerships will be built with vegetable and supply chain integration and help align smallholder fruit farmer associations, women-led vegetable production with commercial demand. groups, vegetable seed grower cooperatives, and fruit nursery organizations, who will serve as 148. Women’s participation will be actively promoted critical intermediaries in production, input use, and through the establishment of home nutrition gardens knowledge transfer. The private sector will also be and tailored training programs. These gardens will central to scaling commercialization, with input not only improve household food diversity but suppliers, transport and logistics providers, traders, also create income opportunities for women in the processors, and exporters driving market connectivity informal economy. The project will provide seeds, and value addition. By bringing these diverse actors tools, and extension services to support these efforts together in a coordinated and mutually reinforcing and ensure their sustainability. manner, the horticulture investment package aims to unlock a high-performing, inclusive, and competitive 149. The project also promotes diversified cropping horticultural economy in Afghanistan. systems that improve resilience and increase income stability. By encouraging intercropping, 152. In summary, the Horticulture Commercialization off-season vegetable production, and the use of Project combines infrastructure development, improved varieties, farmers will be better positioned private sector partnerships, inclusive approaches, to manage climate variability and meet year-round and strengthening market systems to deliver a market demand. This strategy also helps prevent high-impact, scalable model of agribusiness-led overdependence on a few key crops, thereby growth. It will enhance food security, stimulate spreading risk and enhancing ecological balance. rural economies, and help position horticulture as a signature sector of Afghanistan’s economic renewal. 150. In parallel, the project will support branding, certification, and export facilitation for Afghan horticultural products. Improved standards and Investment Package 3: Livestock traceability systems will allow Afghan produce Development Project (US$200 million) to meet international market requirements, especially for key export crops such as apples, 153. The Livestock Development Project is designed to grapes, pomegranates, and apricots. Strengthened modernize and expand Afghanistan’s livestock sector, Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 49 which is central to food security, rural livelihoods, Special attention will be given to poultry and dairy, and national nutrition. From backyard poultry two subsectors where women’s participation is keepers to nomadic pastoralists and peri-urban particularly high. This inclusive approach will boost dairy farms, livestock plays an essential economic productivity while advancing gender equity and and cultural role across Afghan society. This project economic inclusion. will strengthen the sector by improving productivity, resilience, and value chain integration. 159. Value chain strengthening will also be central to the project. Through partnerships with the private sector, 154. A foundational goal is to enhance the contribution of producer organizations, and processors, the project livestock to protein nutrition and household income will support quality control, market information through the improved production of dairy, meat, systems, and branding of Afghan livestock products. and eggs. Demand for these products is growing, Improved cold chains and logistics will reduce spoilage especially in urban centers, but domestic supply and enhance consumer confidence in locally sourced chains remain weak. By investing in production animal products. systems and market infrastructure, the project aims to reduce imports, stabilize prices, and improve 160. The investment package will rely on a wide and dietary diversity. coordinated network of public, community-based, and private sector actors to ensure successful 155. The project will introduce improved livestock breeds, implementation and sustainable impact. The better feed management practices, and strengthened government will play a pivotal role through its veterinary services. Animal health systems will be research and breed improvement centers, food upgraded through training of paravets, supply of safety agencies, livestock markets, and quarantine vaccines, and establishment of mobile veterinary and disease control laboratories. Veterinary clinics, especially in remote areas. Feed markets will officers and livestock extension agents operating at be developed to improve access to quality inputs provincial, district, and community levels will provide year-round, addressing one of the most persistent technical oversight, training, and health surveillance. bottlenecks in livestock productivity. At the community level, implementation will be grounded in active engagement with livestock 156. Pastoralist communities, who manage over keeper associations, women’s groups, fodder seed 70  percent of the country’s livestock, will be a key producers, dairy cooperatives, paravets, and pasture focus. These groups face increasing vulnerability user groups. These actors will facilitate outreach, due to land degradation, climate change, and local adaptation of interventions, and collective conflicts over grazing routes. The project will action around rangeland use and animal health. support rangeland rehabilitation, establishment of The private sector will be central to service delivery grazing management plans, and community-level and value chain integration, including private institutions for dispute resolution, ensuring a more veterinarians, traders in livestock products, feed stable and sustainable livestock economy. and veterinary input suppliers, and retail outlets for animal-based goods. Together, these stakeholders 157. Commercial livestock opportunities will be will form a cohesive ecosystem to support improved developed in and around urban markets where productivity, disease control, value addition, and the demand for dairy and poultry products is high. equitable participation in Afghanistan’s evolving Investment in milk collection centers, small-scale livestock economy. processing units, and cold storage will help bridge the gap between rural producers and urban consumers. 161. Overall, the Livestock Development Project offers These efforts will also support the emergence of local a comprehensive package of interventions that agribusinesses and encourage youth employment in blend productivity enhancement with equity and livestock-related enterprises. resilience. By addressing technical, economic, and social constraints, the project will build a 158. Recognizing the critical role of women in livestock robust livestock sector capable of meeting growing care, the project will invest in women-centered domestic demand, contributing to national food extension services, training in animal husbandry, and nutrition security, and supporting long-term and the formation of women’s producer groups. rural development. 50 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan market infrastructure, including wholesale and Investment Package 4: Agribusiness retail markets, aggregation centers, and packaging Development Project (US$350 million) and grading facilities. Digital platforms will be developed to facilitate real-time price information, 162. The Agribusiness Development Project aims to product traceability, and efficient matching of buyers transform Afghanistan’s agricultural economy and sellers. The project will support certification by stimulating private sector-led growth in schemes for organic, halal, and export markets to agribusinesses. The project focuses on enabling increase the value of Afghan products in regional and high-potential value chains to become competitive, international markets. inclusive, and resilient through comprehensive interventions that improve the business 167. The project will also support the development of environment; expand access to finance; enhance agribusiness clusters and industrial zones, where skills; and build efficient, structured markets. anchor enterprises can co-locate with smallholder suppliers, service providers, and logistics operators. 163. A central component of this investment is the These clusters will be supported through shared reform of the agribusiness enabling environment. infrastructure, coordinated services, and investment The project will work with government ministries, promotion activities to attract both domestic and regulatory agencies, and industry associations to foreign investors. By integrating actors across the streamline licensing and inspection procedures, value chain, the project will foster economies of improve food safety and quality standards, and scale, improve market coordination, and generate enhance trade facilitation systems. Policy reforms significant employment in rural areas. will focus on reducing transaction costs, eliminating barriers to investment, and encouraging private 168. To enhance sustainability, all investments will participation across the value chain. Public-private integrate climate-smart technologies and green dialogue platforms will be institutionalized to ensure practices. Support will be provided for the adoption of inclusive and transparent policy processes. renewable energy solutions in processing and storage, waste-to-energy systems, and environmentally 164. To address persistent financing gaps, especially for responsible packaging technologies. Agribusinesses SMEs, the project will establish dedicated access to that demonstrate strong environmental and social finance mechanisms. These will include matching safeguards will receive preferential access to financial grants for agribusiness expansion, partial credit guarantee schemes to de-risk lending by financial and technical support. institutions, concessional lines of credit, and 169. Lastly, the project will include a robust monitoring innovative Islamic finance instruments. Special and results measurement system to track outcomes, financial products will be designed for women-led inform adaptive management, and ensure businesses, cooperatives, and youth entrepreneurs accountability to beneficiaries and stakeholders. to foster inclusive participation in the agribusiness Strategic partnerships with development banks, economy. donors, and private sector associations will be 165. Recognizing the critical role of human capital, leveraged to scale impact and share lessons the project will invest in skills development and across regions. Through this comprehensive entrepreneurship support. This will involve the package, Afghanistan aims to create a thriving establishment of agribusiness incubators, vocational agribusiness ecosystem that delivers jobs, income, training centers, and business advisory services and food system resilience, while supporting local tailored to the needs of processors, marketers, communities and boosting national economic logistics operators, and service providers. Curriculum recovery. will focus on technical skills (for example, quality control, cold chain operations), business acumen (for Investment Package 5: Afghanistan Rural example, record keeping, investment planning), and soft skills (for example, leadership and negotiation), Transformation Project (US$400 million) with targeted outreach to women and rural youth. 170. The Afghanistan Rural Transformation Project is 166. Building competitive and inclusive markets is another designed to drive inclusive, climate-resilient rural pillar of the project. Public investments will upgrade growth by integrating production, market access, Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 51 and enterprise development across key agricultural will also serve as hubs for women’s inclusion and and livestock systems. This comprehensive peer learning. investment targets rural communities across diverse AEZs, focusing on raising productivity, 175. The project aims to accelerate agribusiness improving livelihoods, and fostering economic self- development and rural enterprise creation by reliance through sustainable, market-oriented rural improving the enabling environment, expanding development. access to finance, and strengthening entrepreneurial ecosystems. Key interventions include business 171. At its core, the project promotes CSA and food system registration reform, tax incentives, and the resilience. It will support the adoption of improved, development of agribusiness incubators. Matching high-yielding, and climate-resilient crop and fodder grants, credit guarantees, and tailored financial varieties, enhance irrigation and water harvesting products will be offered to smallholder cooperatives, infrastructure, and promote sustainable land and women-led enterprises, and youth entrepreneurs, rangeland management. Special emphasis will be particularly in processing, transport, and input placed on vulnerable communities and women supply. Rural economic clusters will be developed farmers, ensuring equitable access to agricultural as integrated zones that co-locate production, inputs, technologies, and productive assets. processing, storage, logistics, and market services. These clusters will unlock economies of scale, 172. The project will also support the transformation of attract private investment, and foster innovation, high-value horticulture and livestock value chains. employment, and income generation. Public This includes expanding orchards, greenhouse investment in rural roads, renewable energy, digital vegetable farming, and backyard gardens for platforms, and shared infrastructure will improve the household nutrition and income. In the livestock competitiveness and resilience of these territories. sector, investments will support breed improvement, commercial feed and fodder systems, animal 176. A key enabler of rural transformation under this health services, and the establishment of dairy and project will be improved land tenure security, meat processing hubs. Market connectivity will be particularly for women, smallholders, and agro- enhanced through investment in storage, processing, industrial investors. Strengthening land rights and transport infrastructure, with renewable energy will increase incentives for long-term investment, solutions prioritized. improve access to finance, and reduce conflict over land use. The project will support efforts to clarify 173. To improve farmers’ ability to make informed land ownership, formalize land use agreements, and decisions and adapt to changing conditions, the expand land certification coverage through inclusive project will establish integrated agroweather and and participatory processes. Special provisions will market information systems. These platforms ensure that women’s access to land is safeguarded will disseminate localized, timely, and personally and expanded, including through joint titling relevant information on weather forecasts, pest alerts, and legal awareness campaigns. Modern, digital market prices, and best agronomic practices via tools such as geospatial mapping, mobile-based SMS, community radio, digital apps, and extension land registration platforms, and integrated land agents. This will enable producers to respond to risks information systems will be deployed to enhance and opportunities more effectively, strengthening transparency, reduce administrative barriers, and productivity and resilience. modernize land administration. By securing land rights and making land governance more inclusive, 174. A strong focus will be placed on participatory the project will lay a foundation for equitable, agricultural research and knowledge dissemination. climate-resilient rural development. The project will strengthen linkages between national research institutions and farmers by supporting 177. To strengthen the rural enterprise ecosystem, the on-farm trials, farmer-led innovation platforms, and project will support the establishment of Agribusiness adaptive research initiatives. Farmer field schools Resource and Support Centers at provincial or (FFSs) will be scaled up to build local capacity in district levels. These centers will serve as dedicated sustainable production practices, pest management, hubs for incubating rural enterprises, offering a range climate adaptation, and value addition. These FFSs of services including technical advisory, business 52 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan development support, market access facilitation, 180. Lastly, the project will invest in institutional and mentorship for micro, small, and medium size capacity building, governance, and digital agribusinesses. In parallel, enterprise financing monitoring systems. Local governments, producer mechanisms such as matching grants, concessional organizations, and community-based institutions loans, and credit guarantees will be introduced to will be capacitated to lead implementation through de-risk private investment—particularly for women- participatory planning, budgeting, and performance led and youth-led businesses—thereby catalyzing tracking. Real-time monitoring, impact evaluation, inclusive rural entrepreneurship. and grievance redress mechanisms will ensure accountability and continuous improvement. Through 178. The package will also invest in skills development this transformative investment, Afghanistan’s rural and youth employment programs, directly linking economy will be revitalized—creating jobs, boosting vocational training to market opportunities through food security, enhancing gender equity, and apprenticeships, internships, and job placement positioning rural areas as drivers of national recovery schemes. These programs will be tailored to the and inclusive growth. demands of the evolving agrifood system, including digital agriculture, logistics, and agro-processing. A strong social inclusion agenda will ensure that vulnerable groups—especially women, returnees, Jobs creation by internally displaced persons (IDPs), and landless rural the action plan  households—have equitable access to productive resources, services, digital tools, and leadership 181. The implementation of the CSAAP is expected to opportunities within cooperatives and enterprises. significantly expand employment opportunities across Afghanistan’s agrifood system. By investing in 179. To address fragmented value chains, the project will climate-resilient production, agro-processing, and support the formation, formalization, and capacity improved market infrastructure, the Action Plan will building of producer groups and cooperatives, generate an estimated 7.4  million additional jobs enabling better aggregation, improved bargaining across the cereal, horticulture, and livestock value power, and stronger linkages to markets and chains, an increase of over 65 percent compared to a financial services. Moreover, a PPP platform will baseline scenario without the plan. Of this, 6.9 million be developed to foster structured collaboration jobs (over 93  percent) will be in on-farm activities, between government entities, the private sector, and reinforcing the plan’s central aim to stimulate rural development partners. This platform will facilitate livelihoods and agricultural resilience. An additional co-investment, share risk, and scale up innovative 540,000 jobs will be created in processing and 50,000 rural solutions while tailoring interventions to in transport and retail, highlighting the CSAAP’s Afghanistan’s socioeconomic diversity and post- contribution to downstream economic activity conflict challenges. (table 22 and annex 6). TABLE 22: JOBS GENERATED BY THE ACTION PLAN (MILLIONS)9  Value chain Without the With the Number of additional jobs action plan action plan Total On farm Processing Transport/Retail Cereals 3.6 5.6 1.9 1.4 0.48 0.05 Horticulture 1.8 3.8 1.9 1.9 0.05 — Livestock 6.3 9.9 3.6 3.6 0.01 — Total 11.7 19.3 7.4 6.9 0.54 0.05 9 Given the limited data availability in the horticulture value chain, it was assumed that processors will take care of the local transportation. As exports are concerned, it was assumed that the additional production being exported will be transported with larger trucks, instead of leading to an increase in the number of jobs. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 53 182. Employment in cereal value chains is projected to 184. The number of women employed in cereal rise from 3.6  million to 5.6  million jobs, generating production is expected to more than double, an additional 1.9  million jobs. Most of this rising from 0.7 million to 1.5 million, representing a growth will occur on farm (1.4  million jobs) due 123  percent increase. This surge reflects expanded to increased productivity, mechanization, and access to improved seed systems, mechanization, improved seed systems. The remaining gains will and community-based extension services tailored come from processing (480,000 jobs) and transport to reach women farmers. Women’s participation in and retail (50,000 jobs), reflecting improvements the horticulture value chain is projected to increase in postharvest handling and market access. The from 360,000 to 1.1 million, a remarkable 212 percent horticulture subsector is set to experience one of growth. This reflects the CSAAP’s emphasis on the largest proportional increases in employment, home nutrition gardens, women-led vegetable rising from 1.8  million to 3.8  million jobs—an production, and expanded access to agrologistics addition of 1.9 million jobs. These gains are primarily and market linkages—sectors where women play a on-farm activities, as investments in commercial critical role. In the livestock sector, where women are orchards, women’s home gardens, cold storage, and already highly involved in household-level animal value addition are scaled. While modest gains are husbandry, employment is expected to grow from anticipated in downstream processing and retail 4.4  million to 5.9 million, adding 1.5  million new (50,000 jobs), further investments in postharvest positions. These gains are driven by investments in handling could enhance employment in these feed systems, veterinary services, dairy processing, areas. With livestock serving as a major livelihood and pasture management—areas where women’s source, employment in this sector is projected to traditional roles are now being linked to commercial grow from 6.3  million to 9.9  million jobs, adding opportunities. 3.6 million new positions. Both on-farm activities (for example, feeding, breeding, and animal health) and 185. The CSAAP’s inclusive design helps address long- processing jobs (for example, dairy and meat value standing barriers to women’s economic participation, chains) will benefit. Though the gains in transport such as limited mobility, lack of land ownership, and and retail are modest (10,000 jobs), there is potential exclusion from formal financial systems. Through for further growth through dairy and meat value targeted interventions such as gender-responsive chain investments. extension, women’s producer groups, and access to climate-smart technologies, the plan enables 183. The CSAAP is projected to significantly expand women to engage in both subsistence and income- economic participation among Afghan women by generating activities. These job opportunities will creating inclusive employment opportunities across enhance not only women’s incomes and household key agricultural value chains. The implementation food security but also their voice in agricultural of the plan is expected to increase women’s decision-making and contribution to local participation in the agrifood system from 5.46 million economies. The plan positions women as central to 8.5 million, marking a net gain of 3 million jobs— agents of climate-resilient rural transformation an overall increase of 123 percent (table 23). by more than doubling their participation in key TABLE 23: IMPACT OF THE JOB CREATION ON WOMEN (MILLIONS)  Without the With the Change in % Change action plan action plan participation Cereals 0.70 1.5 0.8 123 Horticulture 0.36 1.1 0.7 212 Livestock 4.40 5.9 1.5 34 Total 5.46 8.5 3.0 123 54 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan agricultural sectors. This is a critical step toward and cooperative management, especially in peri- achieving inclusive growth, food system resilience, urban and pastoral communities. and gender equity in Afghanistan. 188. This indicates that the Action Plan explicitly 186. The Action Plan is also projected to significantly recognizes the demographic dividend and the boost youth employment across Afghanistan’s urgency of addressing youth underemployment agrifood system (table 24). With over 70  percent in rural areas. By investing in agribusiness skills of the population under the age of 30 and growing development, enterprise incubation, climate- rural unemployment, the plan provides a timely resilient farming, and digital market integration, and inclusive response by targeting high-potential the plan offers youth a pathway out of economic value chains where youth can meaningfully engage. marginalization. These opportunities not only According to the projections, youth participation in improve individual livelihoods but also contribute agriculture-related employment will increase from to broader social stability, economic revitalization, 6.2 million to 10.8 million, resulting in an additional and climate resilience 6.05 million jobs, a 175 percent increase overall. 187. Youth employment in the cereal value chain is Impacts of the CSAAP on expected to grow from 1.2 million to 2.8 million, an increase of 1.6  million jobs or 136  percent. These vulnerable populations  new positions are driven by productivity-enhancing 189. In addition, implementing the CSAAP will deliver practices, mechanization services, and the transformative impacts for Afghanistan’s most expansion of digital advisory tools and local input vulnerable populations, particularly those facing supply networks where youth can play key roles as acute food insecurity. By stabilizing and increasing operators, service providers, and entrepreneurs. domestic food production, the plan directly The horticulture sector presents one of the most improves food availability, access, and nutrition dynamic opportunities for youth, with participation security, especially in rural and conflict-affected growing from 600,000 to 2.1 million—a gain of areas. Investments in climate-resilient seeds, 1.4  million jobs and a 228  percent increase. Youth irrigation, diversified cropping systems, and livestock are especially well positioned to engage in areas help shield smallholders from recurring droughts such as protected cultivation, fruit and vegetable and climate shocks, which disproportionately aggregation, processing, cold storage operations, affect the poorest households. The inclusion of and e-commerce platforms for market access. The legumes, horticulture, and dairy in farming systems livestock sector also shows strong youth employment also contributes to more diverse and nutritious growth. Jobs in this area are projected to increase diets, addressing micronutrient deficiencies among from 4.4  million to 5.9 million, adding 3.05  million women and children. By promoting localized new positions, a 161 percent increase. Young people value chains and improved market access, the will benefit from roles in veterinary services, fodder CSAAP reduces dependency on volatile imports production, animal husbandry, dairy processing, and humanitarian aid, while building stronger, TABLE 24: IMPACT OF THE JOB CREATION ON YOUTH (MILLIONS)  Without the With the Change in % Change action plan action plan participation Cereals 1.2 2.8 1.60 136 Horticulture 0.6 2.1 1.40 228 Livestock 4.4 5.9 3.05 161 Total 6.2 10.8 6.05 175 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 55 self-sustaining rural economies. Targeted support for and heavily impacted during crises. Moreover, the marginalized groups, including gender-responsive CSAAP reduces the need for repeated emergency services, access to finance, and climate and market interventions by building adaptive capacity at information tools, ensures that the benefits of the the household, community, and system levels. It plan reach those most in need—making it a powerful supports market development, infrastructure, and vehicle for equity, resilience, and food security in institutional coordination, allowing food systems to Afghanistan. better withstand shocks and recover more quickly. In essence, while humanitarian aid addresses 190. The CSAAP offers long-term, systemic benefits symptoms, the CSAAP addresses causes, making that far outweigh the temporary relief provided by it a more cost-effective, empowering, and durable humanitarian aid during food crises in Afghanistan. solution to Afghanistan’s persistent food insecurity. While humanitarian aid is critical for saving lives during acute emergencies by addressing immediate food gaps and malnutrition, it is inherently short term, reactive, and often limited in scope. It does Climate mitigation impact not address the structural causes of food insecurity of the action plan  such as climate vulnerability, weak agricultural systems, and lack of rural employment. As a result, 192. As shown in Table 25, the CSAAP delivers significant communities remain exposed to future shocks, climate co-benefits by reducing GHG emissions perpetuating cycles of dependence and crisis. and enhancing carbon sequestration across Afghanistan’s agrifood systems. The carbon balance 191. In contrast, the CSAAP tackles the root drivers estimation includes forest restoration on 1  million ha of chronic food insecurity through sustainable and improved grassland management on investments in climate-resilient production, 15 million ha, with varying degrees of enhancement improved irrigation and seeds, value-added and intervention. The carbon balance assessment processing, and inclusive rural livelihoods. It builds also envisions increased livestock populations and long-term food availability by increasing domestic productivity across the entire country. For crop agricultural productivity and strengthening local production, higher productivity levels under the food systems, reducing reliance on imports and Action Plan would result in a lower expansion of emergency assistance. The plan is expected to create cropland—an additional 998,000 ha compared to new jobs, enhance nutrition security, and improve 1,873,300 ha in a scenario without the Action Plan. economic resilience, especially for women and youth; This productivity gain, however, is accompanied groups often excluded from the formal economy by increased use of agricultural inputs. Through TABLE 25: CARBON BALANCE ESTIMATE FOR THE ACTION PLAN (tCO2-e)  Activities Without the With the Balance action plan action plan Conversion of degraded land to cropland 1,634,593 −56,107 −1,690,700 Production of annuals other than rice 10,635,280 5,671,553 − 4,963,727 Horticultural crops production − 6,494,878 −7,753,032 −1,258,154 Rice production 8,898,875 8,595,322 −303,553 Grassland management 0 −275,734,800 −275,734,800 Livestock production 272,774,396 348,836,383 76,061,987 Forest management 0 −164,831,509 −164,831,509 Fertilizer and other inputs 14,610,016 12,452,951 −2,157,065 Total 302,058,282 272,819,239 2374,877,521 56 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan the adoption of more efficient, sustainable, and use efficiency. By combining emissions reductions regenerative land use practices, the Action Plan with large-scale carbon sequestration, the plan not shifts the balance from a high-emission baseline only strengthens resilience and productivity but to a carbon-reducing pathway. Overall, the CSA also opens opportunities for carbon finance, results- interventions are projected to result in a net based climate funding, and engagement in voluntary emissions reduction of 374.9  million tons of CO2 carbon markets. equivalent (tCO2-e), a transformative contribution to national climate targets. This outcome reflects the 195. By delivering measurable reductions in greenhouse plan’s core principle that food system transformation gas emissions and enhancing carbon sequestration, must deliver climate co-benefits alongside improved the Action Plan, particularly through Investment productivity and enhanced resilience. Package 1: The Food Systems Resilience Project positions Afghanistan to access emerging streams 193. The most substantial contribution comes from of carbon finance and performance-based climate improved grassland management, which alone funding. This package promotes sustainable land use, accounts for 275.7  million tCO2-e in avoided climate-resilient seed systems, reduced postharvest emissions. This is achieved through restoring losses, and optimized water and fertilizer use— degraded rangelands, introducing rotational actions that generate verifiable mitigation outcomes. grazing, and regenerating native grass cover. In For example, improved cereal and rice production parallel, investments in forest management— practices, such as alternate wetting and drying including reforestation, afforestation, and protection (AWD) and conservation agriculture, significantly of forested watersheds—deliver an additional lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions. These 164.8 million tCO2-e in carbon sequestration. These outcomes create eligibility for Results-Based Climate two nature-based solutions not only lower emissions Financing (RBCF) programs, while also enabling but also enhance biodiversity and ecosystem participation in Voluntary Carbon Markets (VCMs) by services. certifying emission reductions under standards like Verra or Gold Standard. 194. In the crop sector, the Action Plan promotes conservation agriculture, agroforestry, and precision 196. The project’s emphasis on sustainable intensification irrigation, leading to a combined reduction of over and agroecological diversification also lays the 8 million tCO2-e across cereals, rice, and horticulture. groundwork for piloting nature-based carbon credit For example, emissions from annual crop initiatives, including reforestation of degraded lands production decline by nearly 5  million tCO2-e, while and grassland restoration, which can be monetized rice emissions are reduced through water-saving to generate additional revenue for local communities practices such as alternate wetting and drying. and cooperatives. In the medium term, these actions Even horticultural systems, which already act as can feed into the establishment of a national carbon a carbon sink, are further enhanced through low- registry, enabling Afghanistan to engage in Article 6 emission practices and solar-powered irrigation. transactions under the Paris Agreement. Investment While livestock emissions increase (by 76  million Package 1 not only enhances food security and tCO2-e) due to productivity gains and herd growth, system resilience but also acts as a lever to unlock these are more than offset by gains in pasture climate-aligned finance that can sustain long- carbon sequestration and feed conversion efficiency. term agricultural transformation and contribute to Reductions in fertilizer-related emissions (2.16  million the country’s Nationally Determined Contributions tCO2-e) also reflect the benefits of better nutrient (NDCs). Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 57 7. Dasan Bobo/World Bank Conclusion: Rolling Out the Action Plan  A changing operating build a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable agricultural economy. environment for development  197. Afghanistan is undergoing a profound transformation Strategic role of the private in its development landscape. The decline in foreign aid, compounded by restrictive policies, economic sector in the CSAAP contraction, and deteriorating institutional capacity, implementation  has significantly reduced the absorptive space for traditional aid delivery. At the same time, the 199. The successful rollout of Afghanistan’s CSAAP hinges Afghan economy is facing persistent challenges: low on the active engagement of private sector actors growth, high unemployment, inflation, and a large across the entire agrifood system—from input and growing population. Nearly one in four youth supply and production to processing, logistics, remains unemployed, and restrictions on women’s and market access. Given the limited public participation in the public sector have exacerbated service delivery capacity and the urgent need for poverty and dependency among women and girls. scalable, sustainable solutions, the private sector is positioned as a strategic partner in delivering 198. In this constrained environment, the private climate-resilient outcomes at the farm, enterprise, sector has emerged as one of the few remaining and system levels. dynamic spaces capable of delivering local development outcomes. While still underdeveloped 200. In climate-resilient food production, private and facing substantial barriers—including low firms can lead the expansion of improved seed consumer demand, limited finance, and regulatory systems, mechanization services, and climate- uncertainty—the private sector is less affected smart technologies. Agribusinesses, including by ITA restrictions and shows signs of resilience, seed companies, irrigation system suppliers, and adaptability, and potential for inclusive growth, equipment vendors can ensure the timely delivery particularly for women and youth. As a positive of certified, stress-tolerant inputs tailored to development, the Ministry of Finance recently Afghanistan’s diverse AEZs. By investing in service outlined new microfinance regulations aimed at delivery models such as franchise agro-dealers, fee- encouraging new entities to register and operate, for-service mechanization providers, and bundled thereby increasing access to finance for agricultural input-finance packages, the private sector can reduce SMEs. It also introduced tax exemptions and is barriers to technology adoption for smallholders in the process of developing a five-year strategy, and pastoralists. underscoring commitment to enable private sector growth. The CSAAP recognizes that achieving 201. In horticulture and livestock development, private long-term transformation in Afghanistan’s food processors, aggregators, and logistics providers are systems and climate resilience will depend heavily essential for unlocking the value of high-potential on mobilizing private investment, enterprise value chains. For instance, investments in solar- innovation, and co-delivery of public goods. powered cold storage, fruit drying, packaging Strengthening these partnerships is essential to facilities, and dairy and poultry processing units Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 59 not only improve product quality and reduce postharvest losses but also create jobs and open Moving from scale to access to domestic and regional markets. These leverage: A shift toward interventions directly support CSA objectives by reducing emissions, enhancing resource efficiency, co-financing and and increasing economic resilience. shared delivery  205. The CSAAP represents a strategic shift in Afghanistan’s 202. Moreover, the private sector plays a transformative development model—from donor-driven delivery to role in agribusiness and SME development. Local a model centered on leveraging private capital and enterprises can drive innovation in food processing, capabilities. This pivot is not only a response to the organic input production, veterinary services, country’s constrained fiscal space and declining aid e-commerce platforms, and agrologistics. By flows but also a practical approach to scaling impact building functional linkages between producers under a fragile and resource-scarce context. Rather and markets, these businesses create multiplier than expanding solely through public programs, effects that improve rural incomes and stimulate the CSAAP seeks to catalyze growth by co-financing inclusive economic growth. Special emphasis will interventions with the private sector, building be placed on supporting youth- and women-led ownership, efficiency, and sustainability from the enterprises through financing, mentorship, and ground up. policy advocacy. 206. The shift toward co-financing and shared delivery 203. Private actors are also key partners in developing involves using public funds and donor grants to climate-resilient market infrastructure and services. de-risk investments and incentivize private sector These include digital payment systems, weather participation in high-impact areas. For example, index insurance schemes, traceability platforms, and matching grants can support agribusiness expansion agroweather advisory tools. When properly enabled in underserved regions; blended finance instruments through public-private collaboration, such services can unlock capital for cold storage, solar irrigation, can enhance transparency, reduce transaction costs, or seed multiplication enterprises; and partial credit and improve risk management for farmers and agri- guarantees can encourage banks and microfinance enterprises alike. institutions to lend to rural SMEs, especially those led by women or youth. These mechanisms allow public 204. The private sector will be instrumental in enabling investments to serve as a multiplier, crowding in the shift toward territorial and value chain- private capital rather than substituting for it (annex 7). based planning under the CSAAP. This involves aligning investments geographically across six 207. Shared delivery models also enable the private sector agribusiness clusters identified for their comparative to contribute to functions traditionally managed advantage and climate potential. Through strategic by the public sector, such as agricultural extension, partnerships, private investors and service providers logistics, veterinary services, and input distribution. can help operationalize these clusters as engines Under the CSA framework, service delivery can be of inclusive rural transformation—delivering outsourced or contracted to local enterprises or climate-smart goods, services, and market access cooperatives, improving efficiency while fostering to thousands of Afghan farmers. By leveraging the local economic development. These models are reach, innovation, and capital of the private sector, particularly relevant in the Afghan context, where the CSAAP transforms agrifood system development public institutions face operational constraints, but into an opportunity for shared prosperity, resilience local businesses remain active and responsive. building, and economic inclusion at scale. Unlocking this potential will require enabling policies, risk- 208. Furthermore, the shift to leverage-based investment sharing instruments, and strong public-private encourages modular and demand-driven coordination—but the payoff is a food system that programming. Rather than prescriptive national is not only productive and adaptive but also self- rollouts, CSA interventions can be piloted and scaled sustaining in the long term. in agribusiness clusters or value chains where private 60 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan sector interest already exists. This includes dairy and home-based trade. Despite accounting for more poultry enterprises in peri-urban zones, saffron and than half of the agricultural workforce, women dried fruit processors in export-oriented corridors, remain largely excluded from land ownership, and fodder producers or solar irrigation suppliers in formal markets, financial services, and agricultural pastoral regions. By anchoring investment to existing extension. The CSAAP addresses these barriers by commercial demand, the CSAAP reduces risk and promoting targeted interventions—such as women’s increases the likelihood of sustainable outcomes. producer groups, gender-sensitive extension services, and home nutrition gardens linked to commercial 209. To support this transformation, foundational markets. It also supports inclusive land tenure investments in financial infrastructure are also reforms and tailored financing mechanisms, such as critical. These include expanding access to Islamic Islamic microfinance products, to increase women’s finance tailored for agriculture, improving digital access to productive assets and entrepreneurship payment systems to facilitate input purchases and opportunities. crop sales, and strengthening anti-money laundering and know-your-customer (AML/KYC) frameworks to 213. For Afghan youth, who face rising unemployment enable responsible capital flow. Improved financial and limited mobility, the CSAAP offers pathways to access is not just a precondition for enterprise growth meaningful economic engagement through skills but also a means of linking farmers to markets and development, enterprise incubation, and rural building rural resilience. employment generation. Investment packages are designed to integrate youth into high-potential 210. Ultimately, the move from scale to leverage reflects a value chains—such as dairy, poultry, horticulture, pragmatic reorientation of development strategy. It logistics, and agri-tech—by connecting them to recognizes that Afghanistan’s food system cannot be training, mentoring, and startup capital. The plan rebuilt by the public sector alone and public funds also encourages the adoption of digital agriculture must be used more strategically to unlock private solutions, which provide new roles for tech-savvy capital, crowd in expertise, and scale market-led youth in data collection, climate information solutions. By embracing co-financing and shared services, traceability, and e-commerce platforms. delivery, the CSAAP offers a path to resilience and recovery grounded in local ownership, financial 214. Private enterprises—especially small and medium size sustainability, and long-term impact. agri-businesses—are uniquely positioned to create decent jobs and inclusive value chain opportunities for women and youth. Through procurement, Creating opportunities for training, and partnerships with cooperatives and local NGOs, the private sector can absorb and support women and youth through these groups at scale. For instance, dairy processors private sector engagement  can build networks of women milk suppliers, logistics companies can engage youth as aggregation agents 211. Women and youth represent both the most or transporters, and input dealers can hire young vulnerable groups and the greatest untapped extension agents to reach underserved communities. potential in Afghanistan’s rural economy. As public When supported by the right policy and financing sector employment opportunities have diminished— environment, these models not only improve particularly for women—the private sector offers livelihoods but also contribute to social cohesion, one of the few remaining spaces for economic resilience, and long-term recovery. engagement, innovation, and leadership. The CSAAP strategically leverages this opening by positioning 215. By anchoring gender and youth inclusion within women and youth not only as beneficiaries but also private sector development, the CSAAP offers as drivers of transformation across climate-resilient a pathway to inclusive climate adaptation that agriculture, agribusiness, and rural service delivery. strengthens both the economy and community resilience. It recognizes that without unlocking the 212. Women play a central role in Afghanistan’s food full potential of women and youth, Afghanistan’s systems, particularly in livestock management, rural transformation will remain incomplete and its backyard horticulture, food processing, and food systems fragile. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 61 Unlocking private sector promoting blended finance tools, Islamic- compliant credit products, and digital financial potential through a five-pillar services. Efforts will also focus on improving the strategy for resilient growth  enabling environment for financial inclusion and building partnerships with microfinance institutions and agricultural banks. The goal is 216. To effectively mobilize the private sector as a partner to lower the cost of capital, expand rural credit, in CSA and food system transformation, the CSAAP and support underserved groups, particularly outlines a deliberate strategy to enable, attract, and women and youth. scale private investment. The Action Plan aligns with the evolving development strategy for Afghanistan (d) Knowledge, data, and market intelligence. For by operationalizing five pillars to enable private the private sector to take informed risks, it needs sector leadership.10 These pillars address not only access to timely and reliable data on markets, the financial and technical barriers facing Afghan weather, input demand, and investment entrepreneurs and investors but also the systemic opportunities. The CSAAP proposes investments constraints to inclusive and climate-resilient enterprise in integrated agroweather, climate, and market development. information systems to build a credible evidence base for action. These tools will help de-risk (a) New pathways for investment and investment, guide public-private coordination, partnerships. The first pillar focuses on and enhance transparency and accountability identifying and supporting new sectors, actors, throughout agrifood value chains. and business models capable of delivering (e) Building strategic alliances and platforms. public goods alongside profit. This includes The final pillar centers on aligning actors— tapping into emerging value chains such as donors, development banks, government organic and drought-tolerant horticulture, institutions, NGOs, and businesses—around a renewable energy solutions for cold storage shared agenda for agrifood transformation. This and irrigation, and mobile-based agricultural includes establishing investment facilitation services. It also involves cultivating partnerships platforms, technical working groups, and CSA with Islamic financial institutions, diaspora finance pipelines to crowd in funding, harmonize investors, and regional agribusinesses, offering standards, and accelerate project execution. them co-investment opportunities in climate- In particular, coordination with IFC, MIGA, and smart infrastructure, logistics, and services. regional private equity networks will be key to (b) Localization of implementation. Recognizing scaling commercial solutions and de-risking the declining space for direct international early-stage ventures. engagement, the CSAAP supports a pivot toward 217. Together, these five pillars provide a practical local procurement, local enterprise development, roadmap for unlocking private sector potential as and decentralized delivery models. By directing both a driver and co-investor in Afghanistan’s CSA more donor and public spending through Afghan agenda. By enabling Afghan businesses to deliver SMEs, cooperatives, and social enterprises, climate-resilient goods, services, and jobs at scale, the plan strengthens local markets, creates the CSAAP bridges the gap between humanitarian jobs, and builds implementation capacity. This relief and long-term rural transformation anchored approach enhances ownership, resilience, and in markets, innovation, and local opportunity. The cost-effectiveness while ensuring that resources centrality of the private sector in rolling out the CSAAP circulate within communities. reflects both principled commitment and pragmatic (c) Strengthening rural financial infrastructure. necessity. Afghanistan’s development future cannot Access to finance remains one of the largest depend solely on public aid or government service barriers for smallholder farmers and rural delivery. By unlocking the capacity, capital, and enterprises. The CSAAP addresses this by innovation of the private sector, the CSAAP offers a path toward inclusive, climate-resilient recovery— 10 “Afghanistan: The Changing Context and the Need for a Pivot: A New one grounded in local opportunity, financial leverage, Approach and Possible WBG Role.” (internal document) and long-term sustainability. 62 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan References  Costanza, R., de Groot, R., Sutton, P., van der Ploeg, S., Anderson, S.J. Kubiszewski, I. Farber, S., Turner, R.K. 2014. “Changes in the Global Value of Ecosystem Services.” Global Environmental Change 26: 152–58. de Groot, R. S., L. Brander, S. van der Ploeg, R. Costanza, F. Bernard, L. Braat, M. Christie, N. Crossman, A. Ghermandi, L. Hein, S. Hussain, P. Kumar, A. McVittie, R. Portela, L. C. Rodriguez, P. ten Brink, and P. J. 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World Bank. 2022. “Irrigation Restoration and Development Project (IRDP).” World Bank. 2025. “Afghanistan Development Update—Unlocking Youth Potential for Resilience and Economic Recovery.” https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/71dd45bbb425564ee41e22e1dc2c2f57-0310012025/original/ Afghanistan -Development-Update-April-2025-Final.pdf. 64 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Annex 1: Climate Change Impacts on Production and Cropland Suitability in Afghanistan  Historical, 1981–2010 RCP8.5 in 2050s RCP8.5 in 2080s Crop Potential Suitable Area Change of Change of Change of Change of Production (1000 ha) Suitable Area Production Suitable Area Production (1000 tons) Wheat 4 270 11 086 Barley 4 954 13 931 Maize, grain 2 782 15 060 Maize, silage 3 253 23 783 Rice, paddy 1 543 4 290 Sorghum 4 060 14 882 Oat 3 746 5 118 Rye 3 926 5 767 Millet 2740 5 701 Buckwheat 1 484 928 Chickpea 1 011 1 293 Gram 1 621 1 696 Potato 1 531 4 463 Sweet potato 2 204 9 401 Sugar beet 849 2 798 Sugarcane 653 2 947 Groundnut 1 337 1 665 Rapeseed 2 139 2 222 Sesame 2 298 3 285 Soybean 2 506 4 637 Sunflower 2 239 4 013 Cumin 1 180 614 Mustard 618 458 Cotton 1 976 946 Flax 2 881 1 057 Alfalfa 2763 24 875 Citrus 267 767 Olive 2210 2 850 Cabbage 1 704 3 007 Onion 1 170 4 007 Tomato 1 522 3 823 Note: Arrows show results without CO, fertilization effects and indicate changes of less than 3% (), 3%–20% (,), 20%–50% (,) and more than ) compared to baseline conditions. Suitable areas include prime (VS), good (S), moderate (MS) and marginal (mS) extents on rain-fed cropland 50% (, and prime, good and moderate extents on irrigated cropland. Potential refers to maximum possible production on all suitable cropland. Potential production is given as dry weight of harvested product except for sugar crops (1000 tons sugar), cotton (1000 tons lint) and olive (1000 tons oil). For cotton, citrus, rice and sugarcane the marginally suitable extents were not included. Source: FAO/IIASA 2022. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 65 Annex 2: CSA Investment Options Prioritization Tables  66 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan (a) Cereals and legumes—Short- to medium-term investment options Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Develop the Seed System to Enhance Yields, Stress Tolerance, 4 2 2 3 3 4 18 60 and Reduce Losses • Strengthen the production of breeder and foundation seeds, ensuring varietal purity and consistent quality through maintenance and purification practices. • Expand local certified seed production to improve access to reliable planting material, particularly in remote areas and among resource-poor farmers. Promote Adoption of Improved Seed Varieties and Climate- 4 3 4 5 2 3 21 70 Smart Agronomic Practices • Support farmer uptake of improved and resilient seed varieties alongside complementary practices such as balanced fertilizer use and the introduction of alternative, resource-efficient crops. • Conduct field demonstrations, FFSs, and field days to showcase benefits and build capacity. • Enhance access to climate-resilient seeds and strengthen extension services to raise awareness and promote adoption of improved agronomic practices. • Integrate seed adoption with broader crop diversification strategies and sustainable farming techniques. Promote Efficient Use of Fertilizers and Agricultural Inputs 4 4 2 3 3 3 19 63 • Establish fertilizer quality control centers across all AEZs to ensure the availability of safe and effective inputs. • Promote integrated soil fertility and pest management approaches, including crop-livestock integration and practices that enhance soil organic matter. • Provide tools and equipment to improve land use efficiency and support sustainable input application. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 67 68 Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Enhance Water Efficiency and Allocation in Irrigated Wheat 4 3 3 5 4 1 20 67 and Cereal Systems • Rehabilitate critical irrigation infrastructure to improve local water delivery and reduce system losses. • Promote supplementary irrigation to enhance crop reliability during dry spells. • Support on-farm water management practices to optimize water use efficiency and equitable allocation among farmers. Strengthen Rainfed Wheat Production Through Timely Access 3 3 4 4 2 1 17 57 to Inputs and Water Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan • Improve access to rainfed-adapted seed varieties and other essential inputs tailored to low-moisture conditions. • Promote supplementary irrigation during critical growth stages to stabilize yields and reduce climate-related risks. (b) Cereals and Legumes—Long-term investment options Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Accelerate Development and Release of High-Yielding, 4 4 3 5 1 2 19 63 Disease-Resistant, and Climate-Resilient Varieties • Strengthen regional research stations to further develop and refine locally adapted crop varieties, including those suited for rainfed areas. • Enhance collaboration between research institutions and extension services to ensure timely dissemination and adoption of improved technologies. Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Diversify Seed Production Systems Through Inclusive Public- 3 3 2 2 1 4 15 50 Private-Farmer Partnerships • Promote greater involvement of the private sector and farmers’ organizations in seed production and distribution to strengthen and expand local seed systems. • Improve farmer access to quality seed and complementary input packages through collaborative models that support both commercial and smallholder needs. Expand CSA Practices Tailored to Agroecological Zones and 4 3 3 5 3 3 21 70 Climate Challenges • Promote context-specific CSA practices, such as conservation agriculture and the System of Wheat Intensification (SWI), to build resilience and improve productivity. • Encourage private sector participation in the local production and supply of agricultural machinery to support widespread adoption. • Facilitate access to mechanization options suited to the diverse needs and capacities of smallholder farmers across different AEZs. Strengthen and Expand Agricultural Extension Systems for 3 3 4 3 2 2 17 57 Broader Outreach and Inclusivity • Enhance public extension services to improve coverage and technical support across regions. • Promote localized farmer-to-farmer knowledge exchange to leverage community-based learning. • Develop and support women-led extension models to ensure gender-responsive outreach. • Engage private extension providers to complement public efforts and expand access to advisory services. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 69 70 Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Enhance Intensive Irrigation Through Improved Water Access, 5 4 4 4 3 4 24 80 Equity, and Efficiency • Undertake major rehabilitation of irrigation systems, guided by feasibility studies and climate-resilient basin planning. • Implement land levelling and provide on-farm irrigation support to boost water use efficiency. • Strengthen Water User Associations (WUAs) at the main canal level and Irrigation Associations (IAs) at the farm level to ensure equitable water distribution and local governance. • Deliver integrated support packages—including canal Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan rehabilitation, quality seeds, fertilizers, small-scale machinery, and extension services through demonstration plots, FFSs, and targeted training on efficient water use, improved agronomic practices, postharvest handling, and market access. Rehabilitate and Expand Upland River and Stream Systems 4 3 4 4 2 1 18 60 for Improved Irrigation and Water Use Efficiency • Rehabilitate and strengthen water harvesting structures to enhance water availability in upland areas. • Promote supplementary irrigation to support crop production during dry spells. • Improve on-farm water management practices among smallholders, particularly in rainfed and water-scarce regions. • Where feasible and sustainable, develop new irrigation areas based on assessments of future water availability and climate conditions. Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Support Smallholder Cereals Producers to Access Markets 2 4 2 1 3 4 16 53 and Reduce Value Chain Losses • Strengthen local processing capacity through support for small-scale mills, improved storage facilities, and stronger linkages to private sector marketing—promoting the use of green technologies. • Organize and build the capacity of wheat farmer groups to enhance collective action and bargaining power. • Support the formation of processing associations to coordinate and scale value-addition activities. • Enhance certification systems for wheat trade by promoting relevant standards and phytosanitary compliance to improve market access, including for export. Develop Strategic Grain Reserves (SGRs) to Enhance Food 4 1 3 5 1 1 15 50 Security and Market Stability • Establish and manage SGRs to support domestic wheat production, ensure food availability during crises, and stabilize local market prices. • Review the relevance and design of SGR operations to align with current needs and market dynamics. • Rehabilitate existing silos and invest in the development and standardization of grain storage systems to ensure quality preservation and efficient reserve management. Activate Quarantine Stations at Border Entry Points to Ensure 3 1 1 2 3 3 13 43 Safe and Disease-Free Import of Wheat and Cereal Products • Operationalize and strengthen quarantine facilities at all major entry ports to prevent the introduction of pests and diseases through imported wheat seeds and cereal products. • Ensure compliance with phytosanitary standards to safeguard domestic agriculture and maintain quality control in the food supply chain. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 71 72 Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Expand Access to Credit, Finance, and Insurance to Support 3 4 3 3 2 4 19 63 Adoption of Improved Practices, Inputs, Machinery, and Processing • Facilitate affordable and inclusive financing solutions to enable farmers and agri-entrepreneurs to invest in climate- smart practices, quality inputs, modern machinery, and postharvest processing. • Promote tailored credit schemes and partnerships with financial institutions to meet the diverse needs of smallholders and agribusinesses. Promote Private Sector Investment in Agricultural 3 4 2 2 3 4 17 57 Infrastructure and Localized Equipment Provision Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan • Encourage private sector engagement to invest in essential agricultural infrastructure, including production and processing facilities. • Support the localization of equipment manufacturing and distribution to improve accessibility and reduce costs for farmers and agri-processors. (c) Horticulture: Shorter- to medium-term investment options Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Vegetables Develop Targeted Vegetable Horticulture Value Chain 4 3 3 3 3 4 20 67 Packages for Diverse Zones and Farming Systems • Design and implement value chain interventions tailored to specific AEZs and farm typologies to boost vegetable production and profitability. • Introduce appropriate postharvest technologies and best practices to improve product quality, extend shelf life, ensure food safety, reduce losses, and enhance value addition. Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Strengthen Horticulture Extension Services for Vegetables 4 4 4 3 2 3 20 67 and Fruits • Build the capacity of key actors—including extension specialists, farmer groups, women’s groups, and NGOs—to support improved vegetable and fruit production as well as postharvest management practices. • Develop and distribute locally adapted training manuals and materials in local languages for use in training-of- trainers programs and as reference guides for extension personnel. Establish and Strengthen Farmer Associations for Vegetables 3 4 3 3 2 4 19 63 • Build the organizational capacity of farmer associations to support collective marketing, processing, and access to inputs and advisory services. • Promote peer-to-peer learning on production techniques and value addition. • Facilitate market access through collective sales, grading, and packaging initiatives. • Provide training and technical support for institutional development and governance. Strengthen Quality Input Value Chains for Key Horticultural 4 3 2 2 3 3 17 57 Crops: Example—Virus-Free Potato Seed System • Establish a fully operational tissue culture laboratory staffed with trained government personnel to produce clean, high-quality planting material. • Construct cold storage facilities to preserve seed quality and extend shelf life. • Deliver training and capacity-building programs on tissue culture techniques and improved potato production practices. • Provide targeted extension services to promote healthy potato cultivation and support market engagement. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 73 74 Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Fruits Enhance Capacity in Fruit Tree Management through Practical 3 4 2 3 4 5 21 70 Training • Deliver hands-on training in improved fruit tree cultivation practices through FFSs, demonstration plots, farmer-to- farmer knowledge exchange, and cross-learning visits. • Key focus areas include effective fertilization and irrigation techniques, proper pruning methods, integrated pest and disease management, and opportunities for intercropping to enhance productivity and sustainability. Establish and Strengthen Farmer Associations for Fruits 3 4 3 3 2 4 19 63 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan • Build the organizational capacity of farmer associations to support collective marketing, processing, and access to inputs and advisory services. • Promote peer-to-peer learning on production techniques and value addition. • Facilitate market access through collective sales, grading, and packaging initiatives. • Provide training and technical support for institutional development and governance. Establish Community-level Collection Centers 2 4 2 1 3 5 17 57 • Set up collection centers at the community level to enhance market access for local producers by providing facilities for postharvest handling, grading, and linkage with buyers. • Site selection and center design should be informed by regional and local needs, developed in close collaboration with leading private sector actors investing in modern horticulture. Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Strengthen Vertical Linkages Across the Horticulture Value 3 4 2 1 3 5 18 60 Chain • Facilitate stronger connections between producer and marketing groups with wholesalers, exporters, and processors by supporting structured negotiations and partnership development. • Promote the adoption of quality standards and agreed- upon minimum delivery volumes as part of formalized supply agreements to enhance trust, consistency, and market access. Build Basic Information Base on Horticulture 4 3 2 3 2 3 17 57 • Conduct a baseline survey to assess current technology use, crop yields, varieties and farming practices, production costs, production dispersion, access to infrastructure, market channels, and prevailing prices. (d) Horticulture: Long-term investment options Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Identify Markets and Crops with new opportunities for 3 4 2 3 1 5 18 60 horticultural exports: • Conduct a comprehensive analysis of market trends beyond traditional outlets, including demand requirements and the comparative advantage of Afghan products while factoring in climate change projections to assess future potential. • Identify communities with suitable agroecological conditions for the optimal production of high-potential crops, along with the necessary local services and input supply systems to support their development. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 75 76 Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Ensure Germplasm for Quality Seedlings and stocks 5 4 2 4 2 5 22 73 • Revitalize the national collections (NCs) of fruits and nuts across six key AEZs, focusing on commercially viable and high market value varieties. • Ensure the availability of local germplasm to support targeted fruit breeding programs aimed at enhancing drought resilience, late flowering traits, and tolerance to pests and diseases. • Enhance private sector awareness and engagement in the production of high-quality planting materials. Build Irrigation Capacities for Fruits and Vegetables 5 4 3 5 4 2 23 77 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan • Strengthen farmers’ capacity to operate and maintain tertiary-level irrigation systems by establishing or reinforcing local water management institutions, including traditional Mirab systems and IAs. • Rehabilitate, reconstruct, and upgrade irrigation infrastructure (for example, watercourses) to reduce conveyance losses, ensure equitable water distribution, and improve irrigation efficiency. • Promote improved water management practices to enhance land and water productivity through initiatives such as on-farm demonstration sites. • Encourage adoption of efficient on-farm irrigation technologies, such as drip irrigation for orchards, to optimize water use. (e) Livestock—Short- to medium-term investment opportunities: Sedentary small-scale and emerging commercial Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Sedentary (Small-scale) and Emerging Commercial Livestock Keepers (cattle and poultry) Animal Health and Disease Control for healthier and more 4 3 3 4 2 2 18 60 shock-resilient stock: • Enhance disease surveillance and reporting systems, upgrade veterinary infrastructure and training, and support widespread adoption of vaccination and biosecurity practices. • Promote climate-smart livestock practices, including integrated agroforestry (where appropriate), sustainable pasture management, and water conservation methods. Improved Breeding for more productive and stress-tolerant 4 3 2 3 2 3 17 57 animals: • Establish breeding centers and implement breed improvement programs, including training in artificial insemination, to support breed diversification and the development of climate-resilient livestock. Facilitate local breed stock marketing to strengthen value chains. Animal Nutrition and Feed Management for healthier and more 5 4 3 4 2 3 21 70 productive, and hence more resilient stocks: • Boost local feed production, promote fodder conservation methods, deliver training on balanced livestock nutrition, and support the creation of community-based feed banks. Access to Livestock Extension Services for inclusive outreach of 4 3 5 3 2 3 20 67 technical support: • Strengthen extension services, train and deploy more extension workers, establish FFSs for knowledge sharing, and promote farmer-to-farmer learning exchanges, and common interest groups. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan • Provide dedicated women-led livestock extension support. 77 78 Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Improved Market Access for Livestock Keepers, to increase 3 4 3 1 1 5 17 57 income • Strengthen PPPs to enhance the production, value addition, and marketing of animal products. • Support the development and capacity of dairy cooperatives to improve collective processing and market access. (f) Livestock—Long-term investment opportunities: Sedentary small-scale and emerging commercial Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Sedentary Small-scale and Emerging Commercial Livestock Keepers (cattle and poultry) Climate- and Disease-Resilient Livestock Systems 4 3 3 4 2 2 18 60 • Invest in R&D for climate- and disease- resilient livestock breeds. • Further expand outreach of appropriate health services to address new outbreaks. Capacity Building and Knowledge Transfer to Ensure 4 4 4 4 2 3 21 70 Outreach and Inclusive Support to Livestock Keepers • Enhance training programs for livestock farmers, extension workers, and veterinary professionals. • Build dedicated corps of women extension support, and women groups and networks. • Invest in research and knowledge dissemination platforms to facilitate the adoption of innovative livestock technologies and practices. Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Feed and Fodder Development for Increased Production and 4 4 3 3 3 5 22 73 Animal Health • Establish feed processing units and small storage facilities in partnership with the private sector to produce mixed feed on a commercial basis. • Support farmers organized in producer groups to produce fodder seed. • Improve the utilization of crop and industrial byproducts for fattening and milk production based on the feeding concentrated fed and urea molasses mineral block. Infrastructure Development to Protect Livestock and Assets 3 4 2 2 3 3 17 57 to Support Animal Health • Invest in improved livestock housing infrastructure, including ventilation systems, waste management facilities, and animal welfare standards. • Upgrade veterinary clinics. Market Access and Value Addition to generate additional 3 5 3 1 3 5 20 67 incomes • Establish cold chain facilities for value-added products. • Improve market linkages for livestock products, establish processing and value-addition facilities, and promote branding and certification for quality assurance. Encourage entrepreneurship and business development in the livestock sector. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 79 (g) Livestock—Short- to Long-term investment opportunities: Pastoralists and small ruminants 80 Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) SHORT-MEDIUM TERM Pastoralists and Small Ruminants’ Systems • Emergency fodder supply systems 3 2 5 5 1 2 18 60 • Targeted animal health and extension services support to 4 3 4 3 1 2 17 57 pastoralists • Enhance grazing management system 4 3 4 4 3 2 20 67 • Provide access to water and feed 3 2 5 5 1 2 18 60 LONG TERM Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Pastoralists and Small Ruminants’ Systems Improved breeding programs 4 3 3 4 2 2 18 60 Dedicated feed, health, and extension and value-addition services 4 4 5 4 1 4 22 73 to pastoralists Pasture/rangeland management to increase resource productivity 4 3 4 5 4 2 22 73 and resilience • Pasture development • Pasture group development • Conflict resolution. Strengthening livestock value chains 3 5 3 1 3 5 20 67 • Processing and marketing (h) Water and natural resources management—Short- and medium-term investment options Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Water Resource Management 4 2 2 5 4 2 19 63 • Update comprehensive assessment of water resources to understand availability, quality, and distribution patterns, also in line with future needs and updated climate and hydrological modeling. • Implement water monitoring systems to track water availability and usage, allowing for efficient water management. • Promote water-saving techniques such as drip irrigation, sprinkler systems, and precision farming to optimize water use in agriculture. Water Storage and Harvesting, and Asset Safeguarding 5 3 3 5 4 3 23 77 • Construct small-scale water reservoirs and ponds to capture and store rainwater for agricultural and livestock use during dry periods. • Promote the use of rainwater harvesting techniques, such as rooftop collection systems and contour trenches, to recharge groundwater sources. • Ensure small-scale flood proofing of infrastructure with local labor. • Construct contour bunds, check dams, and terraces. Water Efficiency Measures 4 4 3 5 3 3 22 73 • Provide training and extension services to farmers and livestock owners on efficient water use practices, including proper irrigation scheduling, soil moisture monitoring, and water recycling. • Encourage the adoption of drought-tolerant crop varieties and livestock breeds that require less water. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 81 82 Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Rangeland Rehabilitation 3 2 4 5 5 3 22 73 • Implement controlled grazing or rotational grazing systems. • Reseed degraded pastures with fast-growing grasses or legumes. Agroforestry Interventions 4 2 4 5 5 3 23 77 • Plant multipurpose trees and shrubs (for example, fodder trees and nitrogen-fixers). • Promote hedgerows or live fences to reduce erosion. (i) Water and natural resources management—Long-term investment options Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Integrated Water Resource Management for Sub-Basin 4 3 2 5 4 3 21 70 (and basin) Development and Allocation Based on Climate Scenarios • Develop short- and long-term comprehensive water management plans that integrate agriculture, livestock, and environmental considerations, and other uses. • Invest in water infrastructure development, including reservoirs, canals, and pumping stations, to enhance water storage and distribution. • New irrigation command area development with improved irrigation network in river basin with abundant water availability, such as the Amu River basin, including the development of strategic small dams. Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Irrigation System Upgrade and Modernization to Increase 5 4 3 5 4 3 24 80 Efficiency, Reduce Losses, and Increase Supply • Upgrade/rehabilitate the existing traditional irrigation system (main, secondary, and tertiary canals) to control conveyance losses and improve irrigation efficiency. • Invest in upgrading existing irrigation systems by replacing inefficient open channels with piped or pressurized systems for improved water distribution and reduced water losses. • Promote the use of modern irrigation technologies, such as automated irrigation controllers and soil moisture sensors, to optimize water use efficiency. Watershed and Natural Resources Management 3 2 4 5 5 3 22 73 • Upper areas: trenches, check dams • Middle areas: check dams, groundwater recharge and water harvesting, channel rehabilitation, riverbank protection • Integrated planning and implementation across entire watersheds • Infrastructure for long-term water storage and distribution Afforestation and Reforestation 3 3 4 5 5 3 23 77 • Establish community or buffer zone forests. • Promote indigenous and drought-resistant tree species. Ecosystem Restoration 3 3 4 5 5 3 23 77 • Restore wetlands, riverbanks, and other ecologically sensitive areas. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 83 84 Description of activities Increases Income Inclusivity Climate Environmental Value Total Total productivity generation and jobs resilience benefits addition score score (%) Water Governance and Policy for Resilient Water Management 3 2 5 5 5 1 21 70 and Use • Strengthen the capacity of human resources working in water-related institutions, including capacity to support WUAs and IAs. • Strengthen institutions responsible for water governance, regulation, and enforcement to ensure equitable and sustainable water allocation. • Develop and implement policies that incentivize water- efficient practices and discourage wasteful water use. Climate-Resilient Water Management Strategies and Design 3 2 3 5 4 1 18 60 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan • Incorporate climate change considerations into water management strategies by assessing future water availability and developing adaptation plans for river basins and sub-basins, and specific storage and major irrigation schemes, including for multiple use. • Design and invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, such as water storage and conveyance systems designed to withstand extreme weather events. Research and Innovation for Resilient Water Management 4 3 2 5 4 4 22 73 • R&D in water-efficient agricultural practices, drought- resistant crop varieties, and livestock water management technologies. • Foster innovation through partnerships with research institutions, private sector entities, and farmers’ organizations to develop and promote water-saving solutions. Land Use Planning and Governance 3 2 5 5 5 1 21 70 • Develop and enforce sustainable land use plans. • Strengthen community-based NRM institutions and land tenure security. Annex 3: Agribusiness Clusters  (a) Investment Priorities in Agribusiness Clusters Northern Plains, Southern Zone, and Kabul Region—areas where adoption of such technologies will have significant Over the next decade, a total of US$1.5 billion in public productivity impacts. investment will be required across Afghanistan’s six agribusiness clusters: the Northern Plains, Eastern Zone, 3. Agro-Processing and Value-Addition Facilities Central Highlands, Southern Zone, Western Zone, and (US$225 million) Kabul Region. These clusters reflect distinct agroecological and market characteristics, and the investments are Investments in agro-processing and value addition will strategically distributed to maximize regional comparative amount to US$225 million, enabling Afghanistan to retain advantages, strengthen value chains, and improve market more value from its agricultural outputs and reduce access. postharvest losses. Focused investments in the Southern Zone, Western Zone, and Central Highlands will support The investments have been categorized into six major fruit drying, juice extraction, flour milling, and cotton areas that are essential for transforming Afghanistan’s ginning facilities, while also stimulating rural industrial food and agricultural systems into competitive and growth. climate-resilient sectors. 4. Cold Storage and Logistics Infrastructure with a 1.  Medium- to Large-Scale Production of High-Value Focus on Renewable Energy (US$270 million) Crops and Livestock Products (US$330 million) A key constraint in Afghan agriculture is the lack of reliable This category represents the single largest area of storage and logistics infrastructure. To address this, investment, accounting for US$330 million. Investments US$270 million will be required for developing cold chain will target the expansion of commercial-scale systems powered by renewable energy. This includes horticulture, grains, and livestock production. The solar-powered cold rooms, refrigerated transport, and Northern Plains, Southern Zone, and Kabul Region lead regional storage hubs. The Eastern Zone, Southern Zone, in this area, reflecting their potential for cereals, cotton, and Kabul Region—due to their strong market linkages almonds, fruits, and livestock. This category will focus and perishable crop production—should receive the on modernizing farming systems, boosting productivity, highest allocations. and enhancing the domestic supply of high-demand commodities. 5. Commercial Feed and Fodder Production and Processing Systems (US$220 million) 2. Advanced Production Technologies and Quality Inputs (US$220 million) As livestock productivity is heavily constrained by feed shortages, the CSAAP proposes investment of To support sustainable intensification, US$220  million US$220  million in establishing commercial feed and will be required in the provision and dissemination of fodder production facilities across all clusters. Investments advanced production technologies and high-quality in the Northern Plains and Southern and Western Zones inputs. These include improved seeds, veterinary will focus on crop residue processing, silage production, products, irrigation equipment, and digital tools for and fodder seed multiplication to support both sedentary precision agriculture. The largest requirements are in the and pastoral systems. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 85 6.  Meat and Dairy Processing Facilities (US$235 million) milk collection centers, abattoirs, refrigerated transport, and packaging facilities. The Northern Plains, Southern The final investment category focuses on scaling up Zone, and Eastern Zone lead in this area, given their meat and dairy processing capacity, with a total of concentration of livestock and growing urban demand for US$235 million. These funds will be used to develop processed animal products. TABLE 3.1: INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AGRIBUSINESS CLUSTERS (US$, MILLIONS)  Northern Eastern Central Southern Western Kabul Total Plains Zone Highlands Zone Zone Region Medium- to large-scale production of high- 70 50 30 60 60 60 330 value crops and livestock products Advanced production technologies and quality 50 30 25 50 30 35 220 inputs Agro-processing and value-addition facilities 45 30 30 50 40 30 225 Cold storage and logistics infrastructure with a 40 50 30 50 50 50 270 focus on renewable energy Commercial feed and fodder production and 45 35 20 40 40 40 220 processing systems Meat and dairy processing facilities 50 45 25 50 30 35 235 Total 300 240 160 300 250 250 1,500 86 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan (b) Detailed Assessment of Opportunities Across the Agribusiness Clusters Cluster Northern Plains (Balkh, Eastern Zone (Nangarhar, Central Highlands Southern Zone Western Zone (Herat, Kabul Region: Kabul, Kunduz, and Baghlan Laghman, and Kunar (Bamyan and (Kandahar, Helmand, Badghis, and Farah Parwan, Wardak, Logar, Provinces) Provinces) Daikundi Provinces) and Uruzgan Provinces) Provinces) Paktika, Ghazni) Potential Wheat, rice, cotton, and Citrus fruits, vegetables, Potatoes, apples, Pomegranates, melon Saffron, grapes, dairy Apple, grapes, apricots, various vegetables and and high-value cash crops, apricots and dairy grapes, dairy, and products, dried fruits, pinenuts, vegetables, fruits such as grapes and and intensive livestock farming almonds and wheat and dried fruits melons, nuts and livestock production Agribusiness Mechanized farming, Crop diversification, Development of cold Expansion of Saffron and grapes Commercialization of opportunities higher efficiency irrigation, agro-processing for dried storage facilities, horticulture-based processing and export, high-value crops. establishment of agro- fruits, juice extraction, and potato processing agribusinesses and and expansion of the Process and export key processing units such vegetable export, dairy, industries fresh and dried fruit dairy industry products such as pine as flour mills and cotton and poultry processing processing nuts, apples, grapes, ginning facilities, and facilities apricots, and other dried development of livestock fruits value chains, vegetable processing facilities Key strategic Expansion of improved Addressing of key needs of Solar-powered Large-scale processing Large-scale processing Processing facilities, cold agribusiness/ commercial farming, SME industrial parks including storage at both small facilities for grapes and facilities for grapes, chain system and cold agrologistics investment in aggregation/ energy to attract private and large scales, pomegranates and dried saffron, and dried storages interventions packaging centers investment given the unique fruits processing fruits. SME investment in climatic conditions Investment in wheat milling Commercialization of Investment in improved Cold chain system and aggregation/packaging industry and including citrus industry Commercialized, technologies and warehouses centers supportive policies to allow export-oriented machines SME investment in SME investment Investment in the growth of local milling potato production agrologistics in key fruit Expansion of dairy in aggregation/ aggregation/packaging industry with varieties and livestock zones production and packaging centers centers suitable for chips Large processing facilities processing facilities to Expansion of dairy Invest in agricultural Solarization and and cold chain system for Solarization and increase capacity for production facilities to technologies and mini grids to power agri-livestock processing, mini grids to power local supply increase capacity for local machinery agribusiness including through improved agribusiness supply Solarization and access to service land Solarization and mini grids to power Development of supply mini grids to power Investment in local agribusiness chain for poultry feed and agribusiness production of agricultural slaughterhouses technologies, including Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan irrigation or import of Solarization and mini grids modern machineries and to power agribusiness irrigation systems 87 88 Cluster Northern Plains (Balkh, Eastern Zone (Nangarhar, Central Highlands Southern Zone Western Zone (Herat, Kabul Region: Kabul, Kunduz, and Baghlan Laghman, and Kunar (Bamyan and (Kandahar, Helmand, Badghis, and Farah Parwan, Wardak, Logar, Provinces) Provinces) Daikundi Provinces) and Uruzgan Provinces) Provinces) Paktika, Ghazni) Investment cost 300 240 160 300 250 250 (US$,millions) Investment Financing for SMEs and Financing for SMEs and Financing for SMEs Financing for SMEs Financing for SMEs Financing for SMEs mechanisms to large businesses, including large businesses, including and agribusiness, and large businesses, and large businesses, and large businesses, mobilize private Islamic financing Islamic financing including Islamic including Islamic including Islamic including Islamic capital financing financing financing financing Blended financing and Blended financing guarantee mechanisms to guarantee mechanisms to Blended financing Blended financing Blended financing attract foreign investment attract foreign investment guarantee mechanisms guarantee guarantee mechanisms to attract foreign mechanisms to attract to attract foreign investment foreign investment. investment Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Potential private Large agribusinesses Large agribusinesses Local agribusiness Large agribusiness Large agribusiness Large agribusinesses sector players already operating that already operating that and SMEs already in business that already in business already operating that have expansion and have expansion and have the expansion and that have the have expansion and improvement potential improvement potential improvement potential expansion and improvement potential improvement potential Other investors including Other investors including Other investors including Other investors including those engaged in other those engaged in other those engaged in other Other investors those engaged in other areas as well as services areas as well as services areas as well as services including those areas as well as services that are no longer attractive that are no longer that are no longer engaged in other areas that are no longer attractive attractive as well as services that attractive Foreign investors now longer attractive Foreign investors Foreign investors Foreign investors Foreign investors Role of IFC Enhance access to finance Enhance access to finance n.a. Enhance access Enhance access Enhance access through commercial banks through commercial banks to finance through to finance through to finance through commercial banks commercial banks commercial banks IFC with equity investment IFC with equity investment partnerships with local and partnerships with local IFC with equity IFC with equity IFC with equity foreign companies and foreign companies investment partnerships investment investment partnerships with local and foreign partnerships with local with local and foreign companies and foreign companies companies Role of MIGA Risks guarantee of both Risks guarantee of both n.a. Risks guarantee of both Risks guarantee of Risks guarantee of both commercial banks and commercial banks and commercial banks and both commercial commercial banks and investors investors investors banks and investors investors Annex 4: Assumptions for the CSA Investment Costs  Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 89 90 (a) Land and other requirements for CSA and sustainable intensification Current Per capita Required Production Current Land requirement Current Optimal Area required Incremental production consumption production gap (Mt/year) area (M ha) without CSA (M ha) yield (t/ha) yield with with CSA (M ha) area relative to (Mt/year) (kg/year) Mt/year CSA (t/ha) current area Wheat 3.6 150 6.0 2.40 1.400 2.333 2.50 3.13 1.867 0.467 Rice 0.4 25 1.0 0.60 0.114 0.285 3.50 4.20 0.238 0.124 Maize 0.5 25 1.0 0.50 0.179 0.358 2.80 3.50 0.286 0.107 Fruits 1.5 50 2.0 0.50 0.150 0.200 10.00 14.00 0.143 0.064 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Vegetables 0.6 50 2.0 1.40 0.039 0.130 15.00 21.75 0.090 0.051 Legumes 0.2 20 0.8 0.60 0.133 0.532 1.50 2.25 0.355 0.222 Note: Calculation assumes a population of 40 million. (b) CSA costs of production Crops CSA unit cost (US$/ha) Irrigation cost (US$/ha) CSA total (US$, millions) Irrigation cost on incremental area (US$, millions) Total cost (US$, millions) Wheat 200 1,200 373 560 933 Rice 500 2,000 119 247 366 Maize 200 1,000 57 107 163 Fruits 800 2,000 171 129 300 Vegetables 500 2,000 45 101 146 Legumes 200 500 71 111 182 Total 836 1,255 2,091 (c) Improved livestock production Number of beneficiary Unit cost (US$) Total (US$, millions) households Extensive production system 2,000,000 200 400 Intensive production system 800,000 600 480 Processing and marketing of 100,000 1,500 150 livestock products Total 1,030 (d) Integrated natural resources management investment costs Number of beneficiary Hectares Unit cost/ha (US$) Cost (US$, millions) households Improved water management 1,000,000 500,000 2,500 1,250 Forest management and restoration — 400,000 500 200 Rangeland management and restoration 37,500 750,000 500 275 Grassland management and restoration 75,000 1,500,000 200 300 Agroforestry and catchment treatment 25,000 500,000 900 450 Total 2,475 (e) Agricultural Research and Development Unit costs (US$) Amount (US$) Directorates—support for administrative management and regional 3 3,000,000 9,000,000 coordination Enhance research facilities in regional research stations 10 5,000,000 50,000,000 Develop climate-smart crop technologies — — 20,000,000 Develop climate-smart livestock technologies — — 20,000,000 Train PhD researchers 100 30,000 3,000,000 Train MSc researchers 300 10,000 3,000,000 Train laboratory technicians 100 7,000 700,000 Train district extension workers 800 8,000 6,400,000 Establish localized training centers in each district 34 500,000 17,000,000 Add 30% maintenance costs for facilities — — 20,100,000 149,200,000 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 91 (f) Integrated climate and market information services Qty Unit cost (US$) Amount (US$) A. Agroweather Systems tools Installing new automated weather stations with complete add-ons 120 56,000 6,720,000 Maintenance costs, including software update at 35% 2,352,000 Modernizing agrometeorological stations 100 6,000 600,000 Upgrading early warning systems 400,000 Establishing earth observation satellite weather data stations 1,500,000 Capacity building in weather forecasting 400,000 Capacity building in meteorological telecommunication and instrumentation 250,000 Integrating earth observation satellite and ground weather stations 300,000 Total (A) 12,522,000 B. Market Information System tools Data tablets and other equipment for data capture 2,500,000 Segmenting and registering farmers, agro-pastoralist, and other stakeholders 2,500,000 Digitizing historical data and collecting agricultural statistics 2,000,000 Setting up infrastructure for AI and big data analytics 1,500,000 Disseminating integrated weather and market advisories 10 500,000 5,000,000 Call centers for disseminating integrated weather and market information 1,200,000 Establishing governance system 700,000 Infrastructure maintenance/software update 2,425,000 Total (B) 17,825,000 Total (A 1 B) 30,347,000 92 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Annex 5: Methodology for Cost of Inaction  Climate-smart agriculture  Restoring degraded natural 1. Failure to implement CSA in Afghanistan carries landscapes  substantial annual economic costs, estimated at 3. The cost of inaction was assessed by estimating between US$1.0 billion and US$1.4 billion for the the monetary value of ecosystem services lost crop and livestock sectors alone (table  5.1). In the due to degradation of forests, rangelands, and crop sector, climate-induced yield losses—driven grasslands slated for restoration. The concept of by increasing drought frequency, heat stress, and ecosystem services value (ESV) views ecosystems pest outbreaks—are projected to cost between as natural assets contributing to wealth, well-being, US$350  million and US$500  million annually. and sustainability, thereby helping policy makers Further losses of US$100–150  million are expected recognize their value and make informed decisions from reduced export earnings and food availability, (Costanza et  al. 2014). This report quantifies the particularly in high-value horticulture, while an economic value of four key ecosystem services— additional US$150–200  million is projected in provisioning, regulating, habitat, and cultural—using elevated food import costs to fill production gaps. the value transfer method (de Groot et al. 2012). For These figures underscore the high opportunity cost each land cover type, the ecosystem service value of not investing in resilient seed systems, climate- was calculated by multiplying the area targeted for informed agronomy, and postharvest infrastructure. restoration by the corresponding ESV coefficient (table 5.2). 2. In the livestock sector, the absence of CSA leads to reduced productivity from heat stress, poor nutrition, and disease, resulting in losses of US$200–250 million/year. Degradation of rangelands Improved water due to unsustainable grazing practices accounts management  for another US$100–150  million annually, while the lack of support for pastoralists and women-led 4. Improved agricultural water management in livestock enterprises contributes to a further Afghanistan has the potential to avert substantial US$100–150  million in lost income opportunities. economic losses from recurrent droughts, which These combined losses reflect not only reduced are among the most critical threats to agricultural sectoral output but also worsening food security, productivity and rural livelihoods. It is estimated rising rural poverty, and diminished resilience to that drought-related losses in the agricultural sector climate shocks. Without urgent CSA investments, amount to approximately US$280  million annually, Afghanistan risks deeper structural vulnerabilities stemming from reduced crop yields, livestock in its agrifood systems. mortality, and the disruption of food supply chains. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 93 TABLE 5.1: ESTIMATED COSTS OF NOT IMPLEMENTING CSA IN AFGHANISTAN  Loss category Assumptions Estimated cost (US$, millions) Crops Yield losses from climate 15–25% yield loss due to droughts, heatwaves, pests—Applied to total 350–500 stress crop output (approximately US$2.5–3 billion/year) Loss in export earnings Horticulture exports valued at approximately US$200 million/year 100–150 and food availability Without CSA, 40–60% loss due to poor resilience and postharvest losses Additional food imports Higher import needs due to local production deficits 10–15% increase 150–200 due to production gaps in national food import bill (wheat, oil, and so on) Crops subtotal 600–850 Livestock Reduced productivity 10–20% drop in yields due to disease, heat stress, poor feed 200–250 (milk, meat, eggs) Losses apply to approximately US$1.5 billion livestock GDP Rangeland degradation Degraded grazing reduces feed productivity and increases costs 100–150 Opportunity cost of not implementing rotational grazing and reseeding Household income loss 1 million livestock-reliant households lose approximately US$100–150/ 100–150 (women and pastoralists) year due to lack of services, improved breeds, and CSA inputs Livestock subtotal 400–550 Total annual costs (Crops + Livestock) 1,000–1,400 Costs over 10 years 10,000–14,000 Over a 10-year period, this amounts to US$2.8 billion. productivity losses from outdated infrastructure, By investing in resilient irrigation infrastructure, seepage, and poor water distribution. Afghanistan’s efficient water use technologies, and sustainable traditional irrigation systems suffer from 30–60 percent land management practices, Afghanistan can water losses, and interventions under projects, mitigate the impacts of water scarcity and climate such as the World Bank’s Irrigation Restoration and variability, stabilizing agricultural output and Development Project (IRDP), suggest benefit gains enhancing food security. These interventions would of up to US$300/ha/year from improved systems. not only safeguard the livelihoods of millions of rural The US$100/ha/year figure provides a conservative households but also significantly reduce the fiscal estimate of the opportunity cost of inaction (World and humanitarian burden of emergency drought Bank 2022). response and recovery efforts. 6. Ecosystem degradation is estimated to result in 5. The analysis assumes a cost of US$100/ha/per US$25  million annually in lost services, particularly year due to inefficient irrigation systems, reflecting across Afghanistan’s degraded rangelands and TABLE 5.2: ESVS OF NATURAL VEGETATION  Land cover Million ha ESV coefficient (in 2007 Amount (in 2007 Amount (in current US$ million) US$ million) US$ million) Grassland 1.5 2,872 4,308 6,548 Woodland 0.75 1,588 1,191 1,810 Forest 0.4 5,263 2,105 3,200 Total 11,558 Note: ESVs in 2007 are based on de Groot et al. (2012). The values in 2007 were converted to current US dollars by multiplying by 1.52. 94 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan watersheds. This draws on global estimates by TABLE 5.3: COST OF INACTION FOR IMPROVED The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity WATER MANAGEMENT  (TEEB) and United Nations Convention to Combat Items Value Desertification (UNCCD) that value ecosystem services in the range of US$25–50/ha/year, especially Agricultural area affected (ha) 500,000 in fragile dryland contexts. Health-related costs are Yield loss per ha (tons) 0.5 estimated at US$15 million/year, reflecting the public Market price per ton (US$) 300 health burden of poor water quality and sanitation in rural communities. WHO and United Nations Annual economic loss from yield 75,000,000 Children’s Fund (UNICEF) indicate that inadequate reduction (US$) water and sanitation can cost low-income countries Irrigation inefficiency cost (US$/ha) 100 1–2 percent of GDP, largely due to diarrheal disease Annual cost due to inefficiency (US$) 50,000,000 and malnutrition (TEEB 2010; UNCCD 2017; WHO Ecosystem degradation cost (US$/year) 25,000,000 2012; UNICEF 2020). Health-related water cost (US$/year) 15,000,000 7. Water scarcity in rural Afghanistan has been linked Migration/Displacement cost (US$/year) 10,000,000 to internal displacement and migration, particularly Total annual cost of inaction (US$) 165,000,000 as agricultural livelihoods become unsustainable. The analysis includes a conservative estimate Total over 10 years (A) 1,650,000,000 of U$10 million/year to account for the social Annual agricultural damages due to 280,000,000 and economic costs of displacement, such as drought (US$) humanitarian support, resettlement, and foregone Total over 10 years (B) 2,800,000,000 rural productivity. Studies from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the Global Total cost of inaction over 10 years 4,450,000,000 Commission on Adaptation underscore the growing (A 1 B) link between climate-induced water stress and population movement in fragile settings (GCA 2019; IOM 2022; World Bank 2016). public investment, supported by approximately US$834  million in private co-financing, there is significant scope to shift agriculture from a low- 8. The monetary value of ecosystem services lost due productivity sector to a dynamic engine of rural to degradation of forests, rangelands, and grasslands economic growth, job creation, and national food for restoration (US$11.5 billion) was added to the and export security (table 5.4). cost of inaction for improved water management (US$4.5 billion) to arrive at the total cost of inaction of US$16 billion for integrated natural resources management. Increased agricultural GDP 10. The increased agricultural GDP is derived from four key sources: on-farm productivity gains, value Agribusiness development  addition through processing and storage, improved market efficiency, and the growth of agribusiness 9. Afghanistan’s agriculture sector contributes an enterprises and cooperatives. Investments targeting estimated 20–25 percent of national GDP, equivalent on-farm productivity are expected to yield substantial to roughly US$4–5 billion annually in pre-2021 terms. economic returns. Assuming a 10–15 percent increase However, much of this output is concentrated in low- in yields across key commodities—such as cereals, value, informal activities characterized by limited horticulture, and livestock—within the designated productivity, high postharvest losses, and minimal agribusiness clusters, and applying these gains value addition. The sector remains largely subsistence to approximately 20–25  percent of Afghanistan’s based, with weak integration into formal markets agricultural land base or workforce, the projected and underdeveloped agro-industrial capacity. As a incremental contribution to agricultural GDP is result, agriculture’s full economic potential remains estimated at US$200–250 million/year. These gains untapped. With a proposed US$1.5 billion in targeted would result from the adoption of improved seed Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 95 TABLE 5.4: ESTIMATED ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF INVESTING IN AGRIBUSINESS CLUSTERS DEVELOPMENT  No. Benefit Assumptions Estimated value (US$, millions) 1 Increased Agricultural GDP About US$400–550 million/year from increased yields, 4,000–5,000 commercialization, and value addition 2 Postharvest Loss Reduction Reduction of losses in perishable crops from 30–40% to 15–20%, 1,000 (approximately US$100 million/year) 3 Import Substitution (Dairy, Reduced dependence on approximately US$165 million/year in food 1,000–1,500 Poultry, Grains) imports; partial substitution over 5–10 years 4 Export Growth High-value horticultural crops (for example, saffron, dried fruits, and 500–800 nuts) and processed livestock products; US$50–80 million/year added 5 Environmental Benefits/ Soil erosion, rangeland degradation, overgrazing: estimated losses 200–300 Avoided Land Degradation of US$200–300 million over 10 years avoided Costs 6 Employment and Livelihoods About 500,000–700,000 jobs × avg. value added ∼US$600–800/year Included in GDP in rural economy (income effect over 10 years) estimates in number 1 Total 6,500–8,500 varieties, climate-resilient practices, better irrigation, contribute an additional US$50–75 million/year to and expanded access to quality inputs and extension agricultural GDP, while also strengthening market services. linkages and rural incomes. 11. Value addition through agro-processing and 13. Finally, the growth of agribusiness enterprises improved storage has significant potential to boost and cooperatives plays a vital role in stimulating agricultural GDP. Typically, processed agricultural rural economies through expanded services, goods such as dried fruits, milled wheat, and trade, and employment. As new SMEs emerge dairy products command 30–100  percent higher across input supply, processing, logistics, and market value compared to raw commodities. If just export-related activities, they create a ripple 10–15  percent of Afghanistan’s primary agricultural effect that benefits the broader economy. These output was processed locally, the resulting increase secondary impacts—driven by increased demand in GDP could reach US$100–150  million annually. for agricultural services, equipment, packaging, This would be driven by expanded agro-processing and market access—are estimated to contribute facilities, improved handling and packaging, an additional US$50–75  million annually to and reduced losses through better postharvest agricultural GDP. This growth reinforces value chain management, allowing more value to be captured integration and provides critical pathways for rural domestically across rural and peri-urban economies. entrepreneurship and job creation. 12. Enhancing market efficiency and reducing postharvest losses can also generate significant Postharvest loss reduction economic gains. Investments in cold chain systems, logistics, and structured markets help minimize 14. Postharvest losses in Afghanistan represent a spoilage, improve product quality, and enable major source of economic inefficiency and food farmers to secure better prices. By promoting insecurity, particularly for perishable crops such improved postharvest handling, storage, and as fruits, vegetables, dairy, and meat. These aggregation, it is possible to recover 10–15  percent commodities, which account for approximately of the value currently lost due to inefficiencies in the half of the country’s agricultural output—valued supply chain. These improvements are estimated to at around US$2.5  billion annually—are highly 96 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan vulnerable to spoilage due to inadequate storage, 18. Strategic investments in livestock productivity, feed poor handling, and limited access to markets and and fodder systems, dairy and meat processing, processing facilities. Current estimates suggest and horticulture value addition are expected to that 30–40 percent of this perishable output is lost significantly enhance Afghanistan’s ability to meet each year, resulting in nationwide losses of up to domestic demand. With improved infrastructure, US$750 million annually. processing facilities, and supply chain coordination, Afghanistan could substitute a substantial portion 15. With targeted investment in cold storage, solar- of these imports. A conservative estimate suggests powered refrigeration, improved packaging and that 10–15  percent of current food imports could grading, postharvest handling practices, and be replaced by Afghan-produced alternatives over structured market systems, it is realistic to reduce a 10-year period. This would translate into annual these losses to 15–20  percent. This would translate savings of approximately US$100–150 million, into the recovery of 10–15  percent of previously achieved through increased local availability of lost value. Applying these improvements to the processed dairy, poultry, and staple food products. agribusiness clusters—which are expected to affect approximately 40  percent of the at-risk value 19. Over a 10-year horizon, the cumulative benefit of chains—is estimated to yield annual savings of import substitution is estimated at US$1.0–1.5 billion. US$100–150 million. Over a 10-year horizon, this These gains would grow gradually as domestic results in a cumulative reduction in postharvest capacity strengthens and consumer confidence in losses valued at approximately US$1 billion, local products increases. While this estimate does representing a conservative but achievable gain tied not account for broader macroeconomic effects directly to the planned infrastructure and market such as improved trade balance or local multiplier interventions. effects, it underscores the importance of building competitive agribusiness value chains to reduce 16. This estimate does not include multiplier effects food import dependency and enhance national food such as increased farmer incomes, enhanced food sovereignty. availability, or additional export earnings derived from higher product quality. Nonetheless, even the direct economic recovery from reduced losses Export growth provides a compelling case for investment. Reducing postharvest inefficiencies will not only improve 20. Afghanistan has strong comparative advantages in overall productivity but also increase market stability, several high-value agricultural products with proven reduce price volatility, and contribute meaningfully export potential—particularly dried fruits, nuts, to national food security. fresh fruits, saffron, pomegranates, grapes, melons, almonds, raisins, and carpets made from livestock products (for example, wool and skins). Prior to Import substitution 2021, agricultural exports regularly accounted for US$700–900  million annually, with the bulk 17. Afghanistan currently spends an estimated concentrated in a few high-value commodities US$165–200 million/year on the import of agrifood and informal trade routes. However, limited cold products that could be produced or processed storage, poor postharvest handling, weak branding, locally. These include dairy products, poultry inadequate certification systems, and fragmented meat and eggs, refined wheat flour, and various logistics networks have historically constrained the processed horticultural goods. Despite the country’s sector’s growth. agricultural potential, limited domestic processing capacity, low productivity, and weak market systems 21. The proposed investments in agribusiness clusters have resulted in a dependence on food imports aim to directly address these barriers by improving from neighboring countries. This reliance not only product quality, processing, storage, and packaging, puts pressure on foreign exchange reserves but also while also strengthening compliance with regional exposes the country to regional price volatility and and international food safety standards (for example, supply disruptions. SPS, Halal, and organic certification). By expanding Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 97 cold chain infrastructure, developing solar-powered such as solar-powered irrigation and cold storage. drying and packaging units, and facilitating producer- As these clusters are expected to cover roughly exporter linkages, Afghan agribusinesses will be 30–40 percent of agricultural and rangeland areas, it better positioned to meet the standards of higher- is estimated that they could avert 15–25 percent of value export markets in South Asia, the Middle East, current degradation-related losses. This translates and Central Asia. to US$20–30 million annually, or US$200–300 million over 10 years, in avoided environmental costs. While 22. A conservative estimate assumes that new or this estimate does not capture co-benefits such as enhanced exports of high-value crops and livestock biodiversity conservation, improved water security, products enabled by these investments could or carbon sequestration, it highlights the significant generate US$50–80  million in additional export return on investing in sustainable land use and earnings annually by year 5 onward, as infrastructure NRM as part of Afghanistan’s rural transformation and market systems mature. This projection is strategy. based on modest increases in the volume and value of horticulture, dairy, and livestock exports and does not assume full market penetration or global Research and development competitiveness in all product categories. 25. Agriculture contributes approximately US$4.5 billion to Afghanistan’s GDP each year, yet public investment 23. Cumulatively, this would result in US$500–800  million in agricultural R&D remains critically low, estimated in new export revenue over 10  years, particularly at just US$1.8  million annually, or 0.04  percent from targeted clusters in the Northern Plains, Eastern of GDP. Findings from this CSAAP indicate that, Zone, and Western Zone, where horticulture and after factoring in necessary capital expenditures, livestock potentials are strong. This estimate does an annual investment of about US$3.7  million not account for additional export growth from future (0.082 percent of GDP) is required to meet minimum trade facilitation reforms, expanded air corridors, R&D needs. This reveals a funding gap of roughly or potential accession to new regional trade US$1.9 million/year. Applying a conservative R&D agreements, which could push total export gains output elasticity of 0.015, this underinvestment even higher. Still, the projected US$500–800 million translates into an estimated economic loss of benefit illustrates the tangible and scalable value US$70.8 million annually—or US$708 million over a of investing in Afghanistan’s agribusiness export decade—due to missed opportunities in adopting capacity. improved technologies, developing climate-resilient crop varieties, and strengthening extension systems. While this estimated loss may appear modest in Environmental benefits/avoided land isolation, it masks the far-reaching and compounding degradation costs impacts of R&D. Over time, underinvestment erodes productivity gains, increases input costs, and 24. Afghanistan faces persistent environmental weakens resilience—ultimately undermining long- degradation, particularly in the form of soil erosion, term sectoral growth. If not addressed, persistent overgrazing, rangeland depletion, inefficient underfunding will leave Afghanistan’s agriculture irrigation, and deforestation. These pressures are sector increasingly exposed to climate shocks, food estimated to cost the country approximately insecurity, and deepening rural poverty. US$120–150  million annually, equivalent to 3–4  percent of agricultural GDP, through lost productivity, natural resource depletion, and Integrated weather and market increased vulnerability to drought and conflict. information services Strategic investments under the agribusiness cluster framework aim to mitigate these losses 26. Weather forecasting and early warning systems are by promoting climate-smart practices, including essential tools for enhancing agricultural productivity conservation agriculture, sustainable rangeland and resilience. Globally, the minimum estimated and water management, manure use, and the annual socioeconomic benefit of accurate weather deployment of renewable energy technologies prediction is approximately US$33 billion, primarily 98 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan through improved decision-making, optimized agricultural productivity directly attributable to planting and harvesting times, and reduced losses improved weather forecasting capabilities. Over a due to extreme weather events (World Bank 2021). 10-year period, this equates to a cumulative benefit In 2023, the global agricultural GDP was valued at of US$363 million. This estimate underscores US$3.8 trillion. Afghanistan contributed roughly the substantial return on investment that can 0.11  percent to this global agricultural output. By be achieved through targeted improvements in applying this proportional contribution, we can agrometeorological infrastructure, data systems, estimate the minimum value of weather prediction and dissemination tools. Strengthening Afghanistan’s benefits to Afghanistan’s agricultural sector. Using capacity to generate, interpret, and apply weather the global benchmark, Afghanistan stands to gain and climate information can significantly improve approximately US$36.3 million annually in increased agricultural planning and resilience. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 99 Annex 6: Assumptions for Jobs Creation  1. Relevant data entry modules in the EX-Ante Carbon actor units along the value chain; the number of Balance Tool (EX-ACT) for Value Chain Assessment workdays required at different stages such as primary (version 3.5) was also used to assess the impact production, processing, transportation, and storage; of the CSAAP on jobs creation including the rates and the number of days needed to constitute one full- of participation of women and youth at different time equivalent position and relative contribution of stages of the value chain. The analysis included women and youth.11 Table 6.1 lists the assumptions both ‘without-project’ and ‘with-project’ scenarios, inputted in the EX-ACT value chain models for drawing on data from FAO Afghanistan, secondary internal calculations. EX-ACT then uses the volume of sources, and expert inputs. The data included flows from the value chains data in tables 6.2 to 6.4 information on the number and size of value chains to estimate the number of jobs created. TABLE 6.1: ASSUMPTIONS USED FOR ESTIMATING JOBS CREATION ACROSS AGRICULTURAL VALUE CHAINS  Cereals Horticulture Livestock Without the With the Without the With the Without the With the action plan action plan action plan Action Plan action plan action plan On farm job (in person-days/year) 400 360 600 700 1400 1960   % women 20 30 20 30 70 60   % youth 35 55 35 55 30 50 Jobs in processing (in employee/year) 8 12 8 12 8 12   % women 5 10 5 10 5 10   % youth 20 30 20 30 20 40 Jobs in storage (in employee/year) 5 7 5 7 5 7   % women 5 5 5 5 5 10   % youth 30 60 30 60 30 60 Jobs in transport (in employee/year) 5 5 5 5 5 5   % women 5 5 5 5 5 5   % youth 50 60 50 60 50 60 11 Details on the methodology and calculations performed by EX-ACT value chain are available at https://openknowledge.fao.org/ handle/20.500.14283/cc7977en. 100 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan TABLE 6.2: CEREALS VALUE CHAIN  Without the action plan With the action plan Production quantity (tons per year) 4,125,000 8,260,000 Land use (ha) 1,650,000 2,360,000 Self-consumption (%) 70 60 On farm losses (%) 18 9 Losses during processing (%) 7 3 Losses during storage (%) 9 4 Losses during transport (%) 2 2 Transformation rate by mills (%) 60 75 Energy used to process 1 ton of 80 100 cereal (kWH per ton) New infrastructure (m2), including 6,959,065, of which traditional flour mills (Zirandas) 6,014,545 m2 is new flour and storage mills, and the rest is storage TABLE 6.3: HORTICULTURE VALUE CHAIN  Without the action plan With the action plan Production quantity (tons per year) 1,800,000 3,750,000 Land use (ha) 180,000 257,000 Self-consumption (%) 12% 15% On farm losses (%) 35% 12% Losses during processing (%) 10% 5% Losses during storage (%) 5% 3% Losses during transport (%) 10% 5% Energy used to process 1 ton of grape Raisins are assumed to be dried in a traditional raisin house Electricity used for storage (kWH per year) According to the information provided by MAIL of cold storage industry of Afghanistan in 2017, most of the cold storage plants were busing AC power as a source of energy (https://afghanistan.moore-global.com/MediaLibsAndFiles/ media/afghanistan.moore-global.com/files/Research/16-Cold-Storage-Industry-of -Afghanistan.pdf). The refrigerant type used in an AC system depends on its age with an older system likely to use R-22. This assumption was used in the analysis. Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 101 TABLE 6.4: LIVESTOCK VALUE CHAIN  Without the action plan With the action plan Production quantity (liters per year) 3,096,000 10,067,400 Animal used (heads) 4,500,000 6,300,000 Self-consumption (%) 80 50 On farm losses (%) 20 10 Losses during processing (%) 13 7 Losses during storage (%) 5 3 Losses during transport (%) 10 5 Energy used to process 1 ton of milk (kWH per ton) 80 100 Water use to process 1 liter of milk (m3 per liter) 0.98 0.98 Electricity used for storage (kWH per year) 4,705 43,944 New infrastructure (m ) including new milk 2 1,445,000, of which 1,400,000 m2 processing plants and collection centers is new milk processing plants 102 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan Annex 7: Engaging the Private Sector to Co-finance and Implement the CSAAP  1. Engaging private sector actors to co-finance and 3. Second, identifying and structuring bankable implement agribusiness interventions through PPP opportunities is essential for attracting PPPs can help unlock Afghanistan’s rich agricultural private sector investment in agribusiness. This potential while generating jobs and improving food begins with conducting pre-feasibility studies security. Given the context of fragility, the strategy and market assessments to pinpoint viable value should blend development support with private chains—such as agro-processing, storage, and investment incentives (Table 7.1). The five key steps logistics—that offer both commercial potential and involved are discussed below. developmental impact. Once identified, projects should be structured to ensure commercial viability, 2. First, it is vital to create an enabling policy and with clearly defined return profiles and incentives regulatory environment. This includes developing such as minimum revenue guarantees or viability PPP-friendly legal frameworks that clearly define gap funding to mitigate risk. Importantly, projects the roles and responsibilities of each party, establish should be packaged to leverage the private sector’s fair risk-sharing arrangements, and provide robust strengths in operations, marketing, and technology, mechanisms for dispute resolution. Streamlining making them attractive and investable propositions. procedures related to land access, licensing, and taxation is also critical to lowering the cost and 4. Third, using public funds to de-risk investments complexity of doing agribusiness. In parallel, is a key strategy for engaging the private sector in governments should establish clear, bankable agribusiness PPPs, particularly in fragile settings like investment pipelines featuring agribusiness projects Afghanistan. Blended finance solutions—such as with strong commercial viability and developmental grants, concessional loans, and credit guarantees— impact to attract serious private sector interest. can be employed to lower risk exposure and improve the attractiveness of agribusiness ventures. Additionally, matching grants or performance-based TABLE 7.1: ENABLERS FOR PPP SUCCESS IN subsidies can incentivize co-investments in critical AFGHANISTAN  areas like infrastructure, equipment, and capacity building. Public entities can also provide anchor No. Area Key actions required investments or secure offtake agreements—such 1 Policy Develop a clear agribusiness PPP as school feeding programs or export contracts—to framework. enhance market assurance and provide predictable 2 Projects Identify and structure bankable, revenue streams for private partners. commercially viable agribusiness projects. 5. Fourth, strengthening institutions and intermediation 3 Finance Blend donor, public, and private funds platforms is crucial to enabling effective agribusiness to reduce risk. PPPs in Afghanistan. A dedicated PPP unit within MAIL could be established to lead the development, 4 Capacity Strengthen MAIL, Afghanistan Chamber structuring, and promotion of agribusiness of Agriculture and Livestock (ACAL), and local business support service to PPP pipelines. At the same time, ACAL could be manage and deliver PPPs. reactivated or reinforced to serve as a voice for agribusiness stakeholders, help identify investment 5 Incentives Use offtake agreements, tax breaks, and opportunities and facilitate partnerships. Donor- grants. supported platforms such as those offered by IFC, Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan 103 World Bank, or Green Climate Fund (GCF) can also regions. Together, these incentives help align private be leveraged to provide technical assistance, build interests with public development goals. In addition, capacity, and support investment facilitation efforts. enabling local SMEs and agripreneurs to participate in agribusiness PPPs is vital for fostering inclusive 6. Fifth, providing targeted incentives is essential to and sustainable development. This involves building attract private sector participation in agribusiness the capacity of SMEs to prepare viable business PPPs. Offtake agreements, such as contracts with plans, access finance, and engage in structured government institutions or large buyers, can reduce partnerships. Special emphasis should be placed market uncertainty by guaranteeing demand and on supporting women-led enterprises through revenue for private investors. Tax incentives—such as targeted PPP interventions in sectors such as dairy, exemptions or reductions on imports of equipment, poultry, and kitchen gardening, where women play income, or value added taxes—can further improve a prominent role. Inclusive business models should project profitability and lower entry barriers. In also be piloted, where local firms co-invest alongside addition, grants or co-investment subsidies can be public support in areas like postharvest technologies, used to support capital expenditures, encourage enabling them to become reliable actors in value innovation, and enhance the commercial viability chains while contributing to job creation and local of projects, particularly in underserved or high-risk economic growth. 104 Afghanistan Climate-Smart Agriculture Action Plan