COUNTRY CONTEXT Nepal is highly vulnerable to natural hazards and Nepal is a net-importer of staple foods and therefore highly pandemics, and at risk of food insecurity. Each year, 1 vulnerable to regional and global price shocks. Nepal is also natural hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes a hotspot for zoonotic diseases with epidemic potential, claim many lives and cause major damage to property. and the capacity of the health system to contain a potential The 2015 earthquake killed about 9,000 people, displaced outbreak is limited. over 2.6 million and caused economic losses amounting to one-third of the country’s GDP.2 The Jajarkot earthquake Climate change is bound to intensify the frequency in November 2023 claimed over 155 lives and damaged and impacts of many of these crisis risks with immense over 90,000 homes. Food insecurity risks stem from implications for human health, agricultural production, and structural vulnerabilities. 15 percent of the population lives infrastructure. on less than $1.90 a day and about 17.4 percent of Nepal’s population was multidimensionally poor in 2019.3 WHAT IS CRISIS PREPAREDNESS GAP ANALYSIS (CPGA)? Not all crises can be prevented, and preparedness can including natural hazards, pandemics and food insecurity. help manage residual risk. Highly vulnerable countries It focuses on five key elements that are relevant across like Nepal must prioritize investments in preparedness a broad range of crisis scenarios: i) legal and institutional to minimize the losses. The Crisis Preparedness Gap foundations, ii) understanding and monitoring risks, iii) Analysis (CPGA) helps guide such investments. The financial preparedness, iv) primary response, and v) social CPGA assesses a country’s capacity to prepare for crises and livelihoods support. 1 World Bank. 2022. “Nepal Country Climate and Development Report” 2 National Planning Commission. 2015. “Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) 2015” 3 National Planning Commission. 2021. “Nepal Multidimensional Poverty Index.” WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES TO CRISIS PREPAREDNESS IN NEPAL? Nepal can manage small, localized crises, but it is not The government has limited risk financing mechanisms prepared for large, multi-sector crises. Institutions to finance crisis response, reconstruction and recovery. concerned with crisis risks tend to have a sectoral outlook Key preparedness institutions and activities are not and emphasize crisis response over preparedness. No adequately financed and, where funding is available, institution is effectively empowered to analyze risks and procurement and spending are often slow. Within its fiscal coordinate preparedness across sectors. Establishing constraints, the government is trying to put in place a risk crisis preparedness as a policy priority has the potential to layered approach to financial preparedness, outlined in markedly improve the government’s ability to mitigate the the National Disaster Risk Financing Strategy (2020). So effects of crises. far, the government has established Disaster Management Funds with resources to cover less severe, localized crises, Legal and policy frameworks for crisis preparedness and has access to a contingent World Bank financing are strong but the National Disaster Risk Reduction and instrument (CatDDO) that can be accessed in case of Management Authority (NDRRMA) established in 2019 disasters or health emergencies. The potential to develop to lead cross-sectoral preparedness and response is tailored insurance instruments is hampered by limited risk still nascent. It is not sufficiently equipped with staff and information and absence of a consolidated inventory of financial resources to fulfill its substantive mandates. assets and critical infrastructure. Contingency planning for Overlapping roles and responsibilities of different agencies critical infrastructure, which is essential for continuity of limit its autonomy and ability to convene stakeholders critical services during crises, is also limited. working on natural hazards, pandemics, and food insecurity. Its roles duplicate those of the Ministry of Home Affairs Strong social protection systems can help deliver relief on natural hazards, and it has no presence in the fields of and recovery more efficiently to help protect development pandemics and food insecurity. As a result, crises continue gains. Nepal has a large portfolio of social protection to be addressed by ad-hoc bodies, which leads to delays programs which cover about a third of the population, but and inefficiencies. Local governments (LGs), which play most programs are not designed to promote household a key role in preparedness and crisis response, generally resilience or to be scalable in response to crises. Disaster lack the staffing, capacity and resources to meaningfully relief and recovery is often slow, inefficient, particularly as engage in preparedness activities. it fails to mobilize existing social protection programs and systems. Early Warning Systems (EWS) are relatively strong for some of the key hazards, including flood and health risks. In addition, disaster relief and recovery do not account However, a multi-hazard EWS to cover other hazards such for impact to livelihoods and little attention is paid to as landslides, lightning, forest fires, and earthquakes is yet recovery of livelihoods after disasters. NDRRMA is leading to be established. Key agencies such as the Department the drafting of shock-responsive social protection (SRSP) of Hydrology and Meteorology lack adequate staff and guidelines which will enable the mobilization of existing capacity to generate and communicate actionable advisory. programs for more efficient and inclusive delivery of relief Planned improvements include the integration of different and recovery and address the impact on livelihoods. The EWS into one multi-hazard system and institutionalization government has also initiated the establishment of an of impact-based forecasting, which uses historical impact integrated social registry (ISR), an integrated database of data and probabilistic models to develop timely, actionable households, to enable swift identification of the affected advice. and vulnerable households. Health risk monitoring has a functional reporting system, Finally, both chronic food insecurity and the risk of acute but it has weak points when it comes to monitoring food insecurity in the wake of other crises are high. zoonotic risks. The One Health approach, which adopts Food security monitoring was disrupted during federal an integrated approach to the health of people, animals restructuring, and monitoring entities at the local level and the environment, is still nascent. Such an approach do not yet have staff and processes in place to resume is particularly important to prevent, predict, detect and it. Preparedness measures by different ministries and respond to pandemics. agencies tend to focus on food stockpiling and subsidizing inputs to boost production, but neither is systematically based on risk analyses. WHAT CAN BE DONE? The CPGA recommends the following to strengthen crisis preparedness in Nepal. The recommendations are aligned to the Green, Resilient and Inclusive Development (GRID) agenda that the GoN has adopted. LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS 1 Strengthen the NDRRMA’s role and institutional capacity through more dialogue, resources, and autonomy to enable it to • Coordinate preparedness across crises including natural hazards, pandemics, and food insecurity, and • Support local level capacity building for key preparedness activities and engagement with communities. 2 Clarify responsibilities of government agencies working on preparedness and response at different levels of government, including by • Establishing standard operating procedures (SOPs) for communication during crises. • Consolidating the chain of command and communication between the national emergency operating center (NEOC) and EOCs at the district and local levels, and between the NEOC and Health EOC. UNDERSTANDING RISKS 3 Strengthen weather, climate and water services by • Institutionalizing impact-based forecasting, possibly via the hydromet policy and law. • Expanding the network of hydromet monitoring stations and ensuring adequate resources for their maintenance. • Strengthening institutional collaboration by establishing intersectoral forums to produce tailored, actionable weather advisories and by developing interoperability across existing EWSs, including those in Health. 4 Support the development of an inclusive multi-hazard EWS, including by • Supporting to NDRRMA to conduct a periodic MHRA. • Investing to expand the natural hazards monitoring to include landslide and lightning. • Enhancing sectoral capacities for monitoring risks in select sectors such as agriculture and hydro power. • Strengthening of monitoring of food insecurity through operationalizing food-security information centers at the local level. • Strengthening communication of early warnings to the public. FINANCIAL PREPAREDNESS 5 Invest further in national Disaster Risk Financing catastrophe-risk models as a core element of risk management by • Expanding catastrophe-risk modeling to cover other hazards such as floods (this has already been initiated with World Bank support). • Considering sovereign earthquake-risk insurance based on risk modeling and insurance for public assets at high risk. • Developing earthquake-and flood-insurance products for households; they could be subsidized for low- and medium-income households. 6 Promote development of domestic market for agricultural insurance by • Developing hybrid agri-insurance products with a combination of indemnity-based and index-based coverage that account for risks more effectively. • Expediting decentralization of administration of agri-insurance from Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development to the local level. 7 Streamline Local Governments’ access to federal disaster management (DM) funds by simplifying the procedures in the federal DM fund’s operating guidelines. PRIMARY RESPONSE 8 Strengthen the surveillance system and data sharing for effective public health decision-making, including decisions regarding health-sector preparedness and response by • Expanding coverage of sentinel sites and ensure they are operational. • Adding event-based surveillance and risk-based surveillance for both human and animal health to establish an integrated surveillance system. • Conducting advanced analysis of disease surveillance and epidemiological modeling. 9 Operationalize the One Health approach in order to strengthen health security by • Enhancing monitoring of plant, animal, and human diseases at all 14 cross-border entry points to monitor and mitigate health crises, and • Strengthening the One Health secretariat’s ability to coordinate, and share information across, the three key ministries, and expanding its technical committee to include the NDRRMA. 10 Establish a consolidated inventory of critical infrastructure, including digital infrastructure, and • Ensure provisions for periodic audit and maintenance to safeguard critical infrastructure. • Ensure provision of contingency plans (with associated risk financing strategy) to ensure business continuity in the event of a crisis. SOCIAL AND LIVELIHOOD SUPPORT 11 Institutionalize SRSP by approving SRSP guidelines to enable the use of existing SP systems and programs for more efficient and inclusive delivery of relief and recovery, and • Ensure that the SRSP guidelines emphasize impact of shocks on livelihoods and the provisions to help households recover their livelihoods after disasters. • Amend program guidelines of key SP programs—SSA and PMEP—to align with the SRSP guidelines and enable them to respond to shocks. • Ensure sustained investment in the ISR required to implement SRSP and help achieve efficiency gains, which will enable assisting a larger share of the poor and the vulnerable. 12 Invest in building local level communal storage facilities for seeds and grains to promote food security. The World Bank Group Nepal Country Office, P.O. 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