TRANSITIONING TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE- SMART TOURISM IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA) Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco June 2024 TRANSITIONING TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE AND CLIMATE- SMART TOURISM IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (MENA) Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco June 2024 TABLE OF CONTENTS © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; internet: www.worldbank.org List of Figues and Tables vii Some rights reserved Executive Summary viii This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, inter- pretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Acknowledgements xi Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and Abbreviations xiii other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 1 | INTRODUCTION���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1 Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. 1.1 Analytical Scope and Limitations 3 Rights and Permissions 2 | METHODOLOGY���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 5 2.1 Climate Change Risk Index  7 2.2 Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Tourism-Related Jobs  7 This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, 2.3 Co-Visioning Policy Dialogue on Climate-Smart and Sustainable you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, Tourism  8 under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Syed Adeel Abbas, Ali Ahmad, Ban Edilbi & Amos Abu. 2024. Transitioning towards Sustainable and Climate-Smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa 3 | CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS FOR TOURISM������������������������������������������������9 (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco. Washington, DC: World Bank. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO 3.1 Overview of Climate Change Impacts on the Tourism Sector  10 Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the Water Shortage  12 attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official Rising Heat and Droughts  12 World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Sea Level Rise and Coastal Erosion  13 Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions 3.2 Compounding Factors Of Tourism Sector’s Vulnerability expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and To Climate Change  16 are not endorsed by The World Bank. Concentrated and Seasonal Tourism Products 16 Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-par- High Potential for Job Losses During Shocks 16 ty-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those Limited and Unreliable Data  18 third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to reuse a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that reuse and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can 4 | TOURISM AS A LEVER TO DEVELOP LAGGING REGIONS���������������������� 21 include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. 4.1 Tourism and Territorial Development  23 All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; email: pubrights@worldbank.org. 4.2 Job Creation Potential  24 Credit: © x. 4.3 Resource Efficiency and Environmental Sustainability  25 4.4 The Promise of Eco-Tourism  26 TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONTINUED) LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 15: GHG emitting sectors at national and 5 | RECOMMENDATIONS TOWARDS CLIMATE-SMART TOURISM��������������� 27 Figure 1: Sustainable tourism’s interlinkages destination levels. with climate change impacts, inclusive Recommendation 1 | Adapt to Climate Change Impacts to Ensure territorial development and managing Figure 16: Climate change risk index (Lebanon). The Long-Term Viability of the Tourism Industry 29 resource scarcity and environmental sustainability. Figure 17: Climate change adaptation (Lebanon). Recommendation 2 | Use Tourism as an Anchor for Inclusive Territorial Development 30 Figure 2: Country profile: Egypt. Figure 18: Climate change risk index (Morocco). Recommendation 3 | Build Better Data Infrastructure for Tourism 32 Figure 3: Country profile: Morocco. Figure 19: Forecasted tourism arrivals to Morocco. Figure 4: Country profile: Lebanon. ANNEXES�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������33 Figure 5: Methodology. Table 1: Existing country strategies to promote Annex 1 | Key Stakeholders in Tourism 34 Figure 6: Assessing the impacts of climate sustainable tourism. Annex 2 | Egypt Country Brief 36 change on jobs related to the tourism sector. Table 2: Potential job losses in the three Impact of Climate Change on the Economy  38 countries. State of Adaptation  39 Figure 7: Climate pressure points and structural challenges facing the tourism sector in Table 3: Potential job gains in the three countries Key Recommendations for Climate Change Adaptation Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco. Source: from serving undervalued regions. in Egypt’s Tourism Sector  40 Adapted by the authors based on Table 4: Key stakeholders in tourism. Egypt, Lebanon and Morocco CCDRs. Annex 3 | Lebanon Country Brief 44 Table 5: Pillars, recommendations, and specific Figure 8: Forecasted tourism arrivals in Egypt, activities (Egypt) Summer/Coastal Tourism  45 Morocco, and Lebanon under different Winter Tourism  46 climate impact scenarios. The different Table 6: Pillars, recommendations, and specific Rural Ecotourism/Forests  46 scenarios are based on IPCC forecasts activities (Lebanon). (No Impact corresponds to RCP 2.6, Impact of Climate Change on the Economy  47 Table 7: Pillars, recommendations, and specific Mid impact corresponds to RCP 4.5, and Climate Change Adaptation  47 activities (Morocco). High Impact corresponds to RCP 8.5). Key Recommendations for Climate Change Adaptation Figure 9: GHG emissions in Morocco. in Lebanon’s Tourism Sector  48 Box 1: Tourism Related GHG Emissions. Figure 10: World Heritage sites in MENA (Red Annex 4 | Morocco Country Brief 51 dots indicated heritage in danger). Box 2: Early Warning System for Flash Floods in Impact of Climate Change on the Economy  52 Petra. Figure 11: Petra, The Urn Tomb (credit: Michele C). State of Adaptation  53 Box 3: From lagging to leading: Reviving Tangier. Figure 12: Tangier (credit: Ning Tranquiligold Jin). Key Recommendations for Climate Change Adaptation Box 4: World Bank Experience in Tourism in Egypt’s Tourism Sector  54 Figure 13: Climate change risk index (Egypt). Development of Medinas. Figure 14: Forecasted tourism arrivals to Egypt. References 57 Endnotes 59 Executive Summary In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), tourism is a key driver for economic growth, job creation, and economic diversification. The sector is especially critical for economies that continue to suffer from external shocks and crises. Tourism accounts for 8.5 percent of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Egypt in 2019 (WTTC, 2023), seven percent of the national GDP in Lebanon (IDAL, 2018), and 7.8 percent of the national GDP in Morocco in 2019 (WTTC, 2023). The sector is an important driver for jobs. In Lebanon, for example, tourism accounts for 326 out of 1000 jobs (WTTC, 2023). In Egypt and Morocco, tourism sector generated 9.3 and 12.4 percent of total jobs respectively in 2019 (WTTC, 2023). In a region increasingly impacted by climate change, tourism is amongst the most vulnerable and affected economic sectors. This report examines the physical, economic, and employment impacts of climate change through three country deep dives (Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco). Climate change is gradually contributing to the degradation of the region’s invaluable natural and cultural assets, which host most tourist attractions. Tourism activities are typically concentrated in areas of high vul- nerability to climate change, such as beaches, mountains, and urban centers exposed to various climate risks. In many MENA countries, sea level rise and coastal erosion Figure 1: Sustainable tourism’s interlinkages with climate change impacts, inclusive territorial are threats to major coastal cities and tourist destinations. For example, according development and managing resource scarcity and environmental sustainability to the Egypt Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR), Alexandria would experience an increase in the total exposure-at-risk from coastal flooding risk by 22.7 The transition to sustainable and climate-resilient modes of tourism is an to 30.1 percent of the total building exposure. In Morocco, 65 percent of the population imperative shift to sustain the sector’s contribution to GDP but more importantly and significant tourism-related activities are concentrated on the coastline, making to unlock new economic and territorial development opportunities (see Figure 1). sea level rise and increase in sea temperature a serious long-term stressor for tourism Increasing tourism demand in alternative destinations creates jobs and improves the attractions. In Lebanon, the decrease in the number of snow days poses a direct threat livelihood of local communities. A modeling exercise conducted for illustration purpos- to winter tourism, and in the summer, the likely increase in the frequency of forest fires es shows that a 10 percent increase in tourism demand1 could yield up to 13 percent threatens Lebanon’s growing eco-tourism sector. of additional jobs created in the accommodation and food sectors in the regions, 18 percent in the arts and entertainment sector, and up to four percent in the transport Climate change exerts a significant toll on the tourism sector’s jobs in Lebanon, sector in Egypt alone. Egypt, and Morocco. In the face of climate change, it is projected that the hospitality sector faces the greatest decline in job losses, with an estimated average loss of 12.5 Such a shift requires countries in the region to realign their tourism development to 36.7 percent across all three countries. These figures underscore the urgent need strategy not only to advance the adaptation of the tourism value chain to the for adaptive labor market measures within the tourism industry to alleviate climate impacts of climate change but also to strengthen the sector’s contribution to change impacts on employment. livelihoods, natural capital stock, balanced development, and achieving greater economic dividends from tourism. Acknowledgements This report was prepared under the guidance of Meskerem Brhane (Regional Director for Sustainable Development, MENA) and Catherine Tovey (Practice Manager, Urban Resilience and Land) by a team led by Syed Adeel Abbas (Senior Climate Change Specialist), Ali Ahmad (Climate Change Specialist), Ban Edilbi (Young Professional), and Amos Abu (Senior Natural Resource Management Specialist). The team also included Ulrike Lehr (Senior Economist), Sateh Chafic El-Arnaout (Lead Urban Development Specialist), Zheng Judy Jia (Senior Urban Development Specialist), Randy Rizk (Program Assistant), and Ruba Hafayda (Consultant). The team received advice from Nancy Lozano-Gracia (Global Co-Lead for Territorial and Spatial Development and Lead Economist), Carole Megevand (Sector Leader for Sustainable Development), Ahmed Eiweida (Sector Leader for Sustainable Development), Mark Roberts (Lead Urban Economist), Shaun Mann (Senior Private Sector Development Specialist), Mira Morad (Senior Transport Specialist), Andrius Skarnulis (Senior Financial Sector Economist), Raha Shahidsaless (Senior Private Sector Specialist), Elena Gagieva (Senior Operations Officer), Maha Hussein (Senior Operations Officer), Kanako Hasegawa (Environmental Specialist), Menan Omar (Operations Officer) and Dalya Ashour (Consultant). The country assessments and policy briefs were developed by the HIDRIA team who included Lorena Lopez, Philippe Duverger, Oscar Blanco, Eduardo Martinez, Daza Garcia, Rawan Atallah, Uxia Lopez, Nadim Farajallah, and Walid El Batouty. Eparque Urban Strategies provided supplementary research, and consolidated, drafted, and designed the final report. The team included: Rana Amirtahmasebi, Merve Ozgur, and Ola Ezzedine. The team is grateful for funding provided by the Climate Investment Fund (CIF) for the project. Abbreviations AMDIE Moroccan Agency for Investment INDC Intended Nationally Determined and Export Development Contribution BCM Billion Cubic Meter IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CAMPAS Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics MENA Middle East and North Africa CCDR Country Climate Development MOE Ministry of Environment Report MRIO Multi-Region Input-Output DGUP Directorate General of Urban Planning MSME Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise EDL Électricité du Liban (Electricity of NDC Nationally Determined Contribution Lebanon) PDTRA Petra Development and Tourism EWS Early Warning System Region Authority GDP Gross Domestic Product SEACAP Sustainable Energy Access and Climate Action Plans GEF Global Environmental Facility SME Small and Medium Enterprises GHG Greenhouse Gas UNFCCC United Nations Framework HCP Haut-Commissariat au Plan Convention on Climate Change ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management COUNTRY PROFILE- EGYPT Forecasted tourism arrivals to Egypt (in millions) 40,000,000 Potential Tourism Revenue Loss No climate change -28% 30,000,000 impact 2100 Mid climate 40% 11 % change 20,000,000 impact scenario 10,000,000 High climate Potential Decrease in Tourist Arrivals change 0 impact due to climate change 2020 2030 2040 2050 scenario CLIMATE CHANGE RISK INDEX 2040 16 % 11 % Climate change risk and impact on tourism destinations Cairo Luxor Red Sea Cairo Luxor Egypt Data shows that 0.60 starting from an already worrying 0.55 situation (0.43), Risk increases over 0.50 time, which impacts negatively arrivals 0.45 Max = 1,0 number of tourists 0.30 Min = 0,0 2023 2020-2039 2040-2059 2080-2099 CLIMATE HAZARDS FOR THE TOURISM VALUE CHAIN 2100 As a consequence of the impact of SLR, coastal Climate change erosion, saltwater Main national may affect tourists’ intrusion, and coral destinations are already consumption patterns bleaching pose risks to severely impacted by by traveling during less beach quality, marine droughts. hot seasons ecosystems, and tourism- related infrastructure and resources CONCENTRATION IN TWO DESTINATIONS AND TWO TYPES OF TOURISM Tourism Sites Coastal Tourism Cultural Heritage Excessive Coastal tourism is Cultural heritage is concentration of the projected to lose about affected due to coastal tourism business in three destinations, 80% of revenues erosion and floods linked to reef tourism as well as increasing Cairo, Luxor and the by 2100 humidity and rainstorms Red Sea Figure 2:Country profile: Egypt. COUNTRY PROFILE- LEBANON COUNTRY PROFILE- MOROCCO 205O 205O Forecasted tourism arrivals in Lebanon Forecasted tourism arrivals in Morocco 4,000,000 No climate Potential Tourism Potential Decrease 4,000,000 No climate Potential Tourism change Revenue Loss in Tourist Arrivals change Revenue Loss 3,000,000 28% impact Mid climate 3,000,000 19% impact Mid climate 2040 2100 2100 change change 40% 28 % 19 % impact impact 2,000,000 2,000,000 scenario scenario High High 1,000,000 1,000,000 climate climate Morocco change change impact impact scenario scenario CLIMATE CHANGE RISK INDEX CLIMATE CHANGE RISK INDEX Climate change risk and impact on Climate change risk and impact on tourism tourism destinations destinations 2023 Data shows that starting from an Agadir Data shows that starting from an 0.60 Bsharri already worrying situation (0.48), Risk 0.55 Morocco already worrying situation (0.43), Risk Lebanon increases over time, which impacts 0.50 Marakkesh increases over time, which impacts Byblos negatively arrivals number of tourists. negatively arrivals number of tourists. 0.50 Anjar Zahleh 0.45 0.40 040 0.35 Max = 1,0 Max = 1,0 Min = 0,0 Min = 0,0 030 030 2020-2039 2040-2059 2080-2099 2023 2020-2039 2040-2059 2080-2099 CLIMATE HAZARDS FOR THE TOURISM VALUE CHAIN CLIMATE HAZARDS FOR THE TOURISM VALUE CHAIN 2100 2100 An increase in Total annual Water resources are temperature and decrease The coast is physically precipitation is expected Sea level rise expected to be increasingly in average precipitation and socio-economically 65% of days (on to decrease by roughly is projected to by 10% to 20% strained across the country vulnerable to average) will fall in 25% on average, increase by a total is expected, with the approaching the absolute accelerated sea-level of 30-60 cm the category of HOT indicating an increase water scarcity threshold of rise, mainly due to its by 2100 in the frequency and/or in 2040 potential of a 30% reduction for the Saharan 500 m3 (before 2100) low topography. intensity of dry episodes per person per year and drought events region STRONG CONCENTRATION OF TOURISM IN A FEW DESTINATIONS AND/ OR SEGMENTS CONCENTRATION IN TWO DESTINATIONS AND TWO TYPES OF TOURISM Tourism Sites Coastal Tourism Cultural Heritage Coastal Tourism Winter Tourism Rural & Eco Tourism There is excessive Coastal destinations By 2050, the snow Lebanon concentration of the account for 47% of 77% of beds are located 75% of hotel rooms cover is projected to Mountain Trail tourism business in two the overnights in the decrease by 40% are on coastal areas destinations, Marrakech in Marrakesh (470 kilometers long) is one country and go from 110 to 45 and Agadir the most renowned in the days Arab world Figure 4:Country profile: Lebanon. Figure 3:Country profile: Morocco. Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco In the MENA region, tourism is a key driver for pot of religions, each leaving its mark on the economic growth, job creation, and economic local architecture, art, and traditions. Magnificent diversification. Contributing to 3.7 percent of mosques, towering minarets, ornate churches, GDP in MENA (UN Tourism, n.d.), tourism is and ancient synagogues stand as symbols of the crucial for economic development. It accounts religious diversity and cultural richness of the for 8.5 percent of the national GDP in Egypt region. Egypt stands as a testament to the endur- in 2019 (WTTC, 2023), seven percent of the ing legacy of human civilization, its vast cultural national GDP in Lebanon (IDAL, 2018), and 7.8 heritage stretching back millennia; Lebanon has percent of the national GDP in Morocco in 2019 been inhabited by numerous civilizations, from (WTTC, 2023). The sector is an important driver the Phoenicians and Romans to the Ottomans for jobs. In Lebanon, for example, tourism ac- and French; and Morocco’s heritage represents counts for 326 out of 1000 jobs (WTTC, 2023). In a combination of ethnics’ origins and diverse Egypt and Morocco, tourism generated 9.3 and religions, together with varied climates, spanning 12.4 percent of total jobs in 2019 respectively thousands of years. (WTTC, 2023). Equally, tourism has the potential to address regional inequalities, which are In a region increasingly impacted by climate prevalent in MENA (World Bank, 2020). This is change, tourism is amongst the most a big challenge in the region where tourism was vulnerable and affected economic sectors. developed in geographically concentrated areas Climate change is gradually contributing to the with profound climate vulnerabilities. degradation of the region’s invaluable natural and cultural assets, which host most tourist Beyond critical economic importance in MENA attractions. Tourism activities are typically the tourism sector is the region’s interface concentrated in areas of high vulnerability with the rest of the world, showcasing the to climate change. In many MENA countries, richness of natural wonders and cultural including Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco, sea heritage. Visitors are attracted to the nature and level rise and coastal erosion are threats to culture of the region, which presents an intricate major coastal cities and tourist destinations. tapestry of countless civilizations, religions, and For example, according to the Egypt CCDR2, climates. The natural wonders of the region Alexandria would experience an increase in span from the sand dunes of the Sahara and the the total exposure-at-risk from coastal flooding Atlas Mountain in Morocco to the majestic Nile risk by 22.7 to 30.1 percent of the total building 1 | INTRODUCTION River in Egypt and to the mountainous areas of exposure. Economic losses from disruption Lebanon and the historical oases of the region. to tourism, services, mobility, and flooding of Throughout history, the region has been a melting heritage buildings add to the cost of flooding 2 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 2 | Climate Change Risks for Tourism in MENA Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco in Alexandria city. In Morocco, 65 percent of impacts of climate change but also to strengthen private sector, supported by the right incentives stakeholder co-visioning workshops, and global the population and significant tourism-related the sector’s contribution to livelihoods, natural and an enabling environment. By creating favor- knowledge-sharing activities, which informed activities are concentrated on the coastline, capital stock, balanced development, and able regulatory environments, offering incentives, the preparation of the report. While the impacts making sea level rise a serious long-term achieving greater economic dividends from tour- and investing in infrastructure, governments can of climate change on the tourism sector was stressor, especially for low-lying areas that will ism. Also, several countries in the MENA region catalyze private sector participation in tourism. mainly covered through quantitative methods, contribute to exacerbating the risks of floods. face a challenging macro-economic context These actions not only attract investments but also developmental focus and policy recommen- with persistent social and spatial disparities and facilitate the development of essential services dations have been co-developed between the The transition to sustainable and climate-re- unabated urbanization leading to densification, and amenities necessary for tourism growth. World Bank team and public officials represent- silient modes of tourism is an imperative shift gentrification, and leapfrogging. However, tour- Across MENA, governments can collaborate with ing the three countries examined. The report’s to mitigate the effects of climate change and ism represents a major driver of socio-economic private enterprises to align tourism initiatives methodology is explained in Chapter 2. The unlock new opportunities. Such a shift requires growth and performs well despite a troubled with broader development strategies, such as main outcomes of the co-visioning consultations, countries in the region to realign their tourism regional context. Sustainable Development Goals or national which are linked directly to the recommenda- development strategy not only to advance the economic revitalization plans (for example Jordan’s tions, reflect the need to (i) utilize sustainable adaptation of the tourism value chain to the Economic Modernization Vision). tourism as a lever for territorial development; (ii) examine the impacts of climate change on This report utilizes a mixed-method approach tourism-linked jobs, and (iii) highlight the need that combines quantitative and qualitative for institutional coordination and data sharing. input to define country-specific recommen- 1.1 Analytical Scope and Limitations dations aligned with development needs. The methodology involved reviews and analytical Focusing on Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco, dialogues in Egypt, Morocco, and Lebanon as assessments, conducting policy dialogues, this report provides evidence-based analyses they develop sustainable tourism plans and that could be leveraged to improve the programs. The report also provides a summary resilience of the region’s natural and cultural of recommendations that could be applicable assets to the anticipated climate change risks. to similar countries in MENA beyond the three Climate change is one of the risks the tourism cases (such as Jordan and Tunisia). The Annex sector is susceptible to, including macro-eco- provides a summary of the three country case nomic shocks, pandemics and public health studies and specific recommendations for each. emergencies, regional conflicts and political stability. This report focuses on climate change, While the focus is on government-led action, which is increasingly relevant for MENA, as the report discusses policies, incentives, and shown through the CCDRs. The report includes regulatory aspects that would contribute assessing key climate risks, identifying priorities towards enhancing the private sector’s role in and opportunities for sustainable tourism expanding sustainable and climate-smart tour- development, and facilitating meaningful policy ism. A flourishing tourism sector requires a healthy 3 4 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco The methodology employed in this report change impacts on employment, utilizing adopts a comprehensive mixed-method Input-Output analysis to delineate both positive approach, blending both quantitative and and negative ramifications. Complementing the qualitative components to offer a nuanced quantitative component, the qualitative facet of understanding of the challenges posed by the methodology involved a pivotal co-visioning climate change to the tourism sector in Egypt, workshop convened with senior officials from Lebanon, and Morocco (see Figure 5). On pertinent line ministries, including tourism, the quantitative front, the study utilizes a finance, and environment. This workshop aimed Climate Risk Index. This index covers various to refine recommendations and align them with parameters pertaining to exposure, hazards, and the developmental imperatives of the countries vulnerabilities, enabling a holistic assessment of under study, ensuring a harmonized and climate-related risks. Furthermore, quantitative actionable approach to climate resilience in the analyses extend to the evaluation of climate tourism sector. Limitations Country Egypt, Lebanon and Quantitative Analysis coverage Morocco Tourist Foreign tourists Climate change vulnerability profile (Climate Risk Index) Scope Recommendations of policy Public sector interventions Assessment of impacts on intervention jobs (Input-Output Analysis) Informed by both data and stakeholders’ feedback Outcomes of the co-visioning Qualitative Analysis consultations Aligned with development • Utilize sustainable tourism as a objectives lever for territorial development • Examine the impacts of climate Co-visioning workshop with change on tourism-linked jobs key stakeholders • Highlight the need for institutional Expert interviews and desktop 2 | METHODOLOGY coordination and data sharing research Figure 5: Methodology. 6 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 2 | Climate Change Risks for Tourism in MENA Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco 2.1 Climate Change Risk Index steps followed in assessing the impacts of climate change on jobs related to the tourism MRIO Lab (Lenzen et al. 2017). Tourist spending is obtained from the OECD database.4 It is sector. For the IO tables, we used Release 057 important to note that the jobs losses analysis A risk index (0 to 1) has been calculated (GDP), and environmental aspects of the of the GLORIA global environmentally extended does not take adaptation into account; that is in for each country3 and its top-performing country/destination (water, energy, tourism multi-region input-output (MRIO) database other words, losses estimated under a no action destinations, combining multiple variables emissions). (Lenzen et al. 2022), constructed in the Global scenario. in three categories: exposure, hazards and Sustainability indicators have been incorporated vulnerabilities. The risk assessment has been within the exposure and vulnerability pillars. The operationalized using both Agulles et al. (2022) weighted average of these three pillars provides 2.3 Co-Visioning Policy Dialogue on and Matei et al. (2023) indexes methodology. The the overall risk index and can be correlated to core of this methodology is to analyze the inter- regional tourism demand. Each pillar is also a Climate-Smart and Sustainable Tourism action of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability to weighted average of several indicators. All indi- identify the compound level of risk, understand- cators for each pillar are projected in the future. ing risk as the possibility of loss or injury. Hazards indicators use the Intergovernmental A policy dialogue and co-visioning two-day climate-smart tourism and to better understand Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions for workshop was held to verify the findings of the complex network of actors involved in the • Exposure indicators measure the economic the analysis and further refine (and align) the each scenario (SSP1, SSP2, and SSP5). Vulner- tourism sector and for fostering effective com- impact of the tourism activity in the recommendations according to the countries’ ability and Exposure indicators use projected munication, collaboration, and partnerships to destination (number of tourists, length of specific needs and development objectives. trends based on a combination of expert opinion promote sustainable tourism development; (iii) stay) and the attraction on which the tourism More specifically, the workshop, held in and past trends. identify priorities, areas for policy reforms, key activity relies. The higher the risk the more Marrakesh, Morocco, in February 2024, aimed investments, and potential interventions on how tourism revenues and consequently the The original data has been normalized to a to (i) verify the selectivity and vulnerability of tourism and the nature-based resources that it country’s economy will be impacted. scale from 0 to 1 to homogenize the different tourism destinations, natural resources and depends on as a driver of economic growth and • Hazard indicators reflect the most likely indicators expressed in diverse units and cultural heritage assets, and communities to inclusive development can be better protected hazards that will affect the tourism industry make indicators comparable to each other. climate change; (ii) map stakeholders that are and made more resilient. in Egypt (but they are also applicable Then, weight is associated with each indicator critical for the advancement of sustainable and to Morocco and Lebanon), which are according to their impact. All weights add to 1. temperatures, humidity levels, precipitation, Concerning exposure weighting, the indicators drought, and rising sea levels. related to the tourism economy were given a • Vulnerability indicators measure the higher weight as those aspects are considered capacity to cope and adapt to the risk. In to be much affected. The other indicators this case, the indicators include social receive weights with values ranging from 0.05 (unemployment, health system), economic (less impacted) to 0.15 (medium impacted). 2.2 Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Tourism-Related Jobs Tourists’ spending profiles differ from domestically lead to losses along the respective domestic profiles, with large shares spent value chain. Less demand for transport, for on accommodation and food, followed by instance, leads to less demand for fuel, and for transport, touristic goods (such as souve- services connected with transport. Employment nirs), and other everyday goods. Losses of goes down proportionate to the labor intensity tourist spending in sectors that are produced of the respective sector. Figure 6 shows the Figure 6: Assessing the impacts of climate change on jobs related to the tourism sector. 7 8 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco 3.1 Overview of Climate Change Impacts on the Tourism Sector The tourism sector in Egypt, Lebanon, and of million dollars per year (Lebanon CCDR). Morocco is identified as being highly vulnera- This includes job losses of approximately two ble to climate change. According to the recently percent in agriculture, transport, and trade and published CCDRs in MENA, without adaptation 13 percent in accommodations. Also, Alexandria, measures, countries in the region are expected the second largest city in Egypt and a key tourist to witness a decline in annual real GDP ranging and economic center along the Mediterranean, from 1.1 percent to 6.6 percent by the middle of would experience a considerable increase in the the century.5 Some of these losses will be driven exposure to the risk of coastal flooding (Egypt by impacts on the tourism sector (see Figure CCDR). Other analytics have also highlighted the 7). For example, in Lebanon, the decrease in cost of climate change on tourism – In Morrocco, the number of snow days poses a direct threat it is estimated that the cost of coastal erosion to winter tourism, and in the summer, the likely amounts to 0.4 percent of GDP (US$434 million).6  increase in the frequency of forest fires threatens Lebanon’s growing eco-tourism sector. It is Both geography and climate contribute to the projected that economic losses in tourism due increased exposure of the MENA region to water to climate change could cost Lebanon hundreds shortage, rising heat, and sea level rise. Figure 7: Climate pressure points EGYPT LEBANON MOROCCO and structural challenges facing the tourism sector in Egypt, Tourism Climate Pressing Points Lebanon, and Morocco. Source: Water scarcity Adapted by the authors based on Egypt, Lebanon and Morocco Livability & CCDRs. productivity Sea level rise & coastal erosion Fiscal space Challenges Structural Subsidies 3 | CLIMATE CHANGE Fragility RISKS FOR TOURISM Moderate Low to High to high moderate 10 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 3 | Climate Change Risks for Tourism in MENA Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco The impacts of climate change, including forest Table 1: Existing country strategies to promote sustainable tourism. WATER SHORTAGE fire risk and changes in precipitation patterns, Limited water availability is a major concern in pose threats to inland protected areas, nature Country Current strategies many tourist destinations in the MENA region. reserves, and forests, impacting ecosystem Egypt • During the past years, the country has prepared a new tourism strategy for Natural and cultural heritage sites (for example services and demand for nature-based tourism. 2030 which aligns with Egypt’s Sustainable Development Strategy, focusing Pyramids of Giza, Karnak Temple, Philae Temple, For example, projections suggest a reduction in on fostering the creation of new resorts to exploit natural domestic assets and etc.) rely on sustainable water management Cedrus libani populations to only three refugial promote ecotourism destinations, establishing new tourist and residential clusters zones by 2100 due to higher temperatures and on the North Coast, and adopting an open sky aviation policy, among others. to mitigate the impacts of groundwater levels, humidity, and the potential effects of climate water stress (MoE, 2015; Hajar et al., 2010). • Other actions to promote climate-smart tourism include low-carbon mobility, nature conservation and coastal resources protection, resource management change (Aboelnga, 2023). According to the Projections indicate a substantial increase in efficiency, among others. Some examples include: Green Star hotel, solar Egypt CCDR, water scarcity will increase net temperatures across Egypt by 2050, particularly power stations, Egyptian sustainable tourism portal, Green Sharm El-Sheikh, virtual water imports by 15 percent by 2030, and affecting interior destinations like Luxor and conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity into tourism development, by 45 percent during droughts. Similarly, Moroc- EcoEgypt campaign, and coral nurseries. Aswan during the summer months. Heat waves co faces escalating water stress with projections are projected to become more severe, frequent, indicating a decrease in mean precipitation by and prolonged by mid-century, with shifts in Lebanon • On the private sector front, climate-sensitive approaches have been focused on the need to reduce costs and address infrastructure and services shortages six to 18 percent by 2050 and eight to 38 percent tourist preferences towards destinations and (CCDR, 2023). The most common measures adopted by the tourism sector are by 2100. In Lebanon, by 2040, combined heat months with more favorable temperatures. Ris- related to energy efficiency as well as water management measures (Interviews, and precipitation projections to lower yearly ing temperatures, coupled with low precipitation 2024). water availability by up to 9 percent (Lebanon levels and sandy winds, pose threats to natural • Other actions to promote climate-smart tourism include low-carbon mobility, CCDR).​This strain on water resources impacts nature conservation and coastal resources protection, resource management sites and Egypt’s national heritage, requiring the hospitality sector and limits the absorptive well-equipped tourism establishments adaptable efficiency, among others. Some of the projects Lebanon has been working on to capacity of key tourist destinations. to climate change (USAID, 2018; GERICS, promote climate-smart tourism are supporting diversification through nature- based solutions, best tourism villages award, private sector initiatives, and nature 2019; Mahmoud et al., 2019; Ismael, 2015). conservations. RISING HEAT AND DROUGHTS Also, Egypt’s CCDR estimates that droughts can impact water-dependent attractions and Morocco • Morocco developed a study for the carbon footprint and a Nationally Appropriate In a high emissions scenario, Lebanon is ex- activities (for example Nile cruises, felucca Mitigation Action (NAMA) for a climate-friendly accommodation sector through pected to have an average annual temperature rides, recreational water sports, etc.). Extreme energy efficiency and renewable energy. It sets a very ambitious goal to eliminate emissions from the accommodation subsector, which in 2015 represented 10 increase of approximately 4.3°C by the end of temperatures are expected to lead to increased percent of emissions from Moroccan tourism. the century (compared to the 1981–2010 period). cooling expenses for touristic establishments. • NAMA includes the following components: building the capacity of the Increased temperature and recurrent heat accommodation sector towards low carbon and resource-efficient operations; waves will impact Lebanon’s attractiveness for Additionally, the Egypt CCDR warns that the finance and investing in mechanisms to support the transition to renewable mild-weather summer vacations (USAID, 2016), economic benefits of coastal tourism to local energy and energy efficient operations, and technologies; sustainable reducing tourism demand for both coastal and communities are projected to be adversely procurement of goods and services (food and technical), from construction affected the loss of coral reefs to ocean warming, mountainous summer resort areas. On the other to room features; awareness campaign for customers and employees; and to hand, ski resorts and entire small villages that with an estimated 80 percent of revenues linked promote energy efficiency standards in the entire accommodation sector. depend on the winter sports season will also be to reef tourism to be lost by 2100. This could • Besides these challenges, the country has adopted several climate-smart measures within the tourism sector including: SME incentives, the Moroccan affected. For example, the ski region of Mzaar result in a loss of US$5.6 billion in revenue Sustainable Tourism Award, Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Blue Economy, Kfardebian, home to the largest ski resort in the compared to 2019 under RCP8,5.7 The Red guides and regulations for energy efficiency, and the use of renewable energies. region, reported losses of up to US$20 million in Sea, a sanctuary to 209 types of coral reef and 2010 due to unseasonably warm temperatures. over five percent of the world’s coral reefs, is 11 12 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 3 | Climate Change Risks for Tourism in MENA Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco not immune to this threat. Coral bleaching has infrastructure, beaches, islands, ecosystems, Figure 8: Forecasted tourism been observed in the Red Sea as far north as and historical monuments. Tyre, a UNESCO arrivals in Egypt, Morocco, and Forecasted tourism arrivals to Egypt (in millions) Hurghada. However, recent studies have shown World Heritage site, is classified as highly Lebanon under different climate impact scenarios. The different that the corals of the Red Sea’s Gulf of Aqaba vulnerable to erosion, impacting activities like 35.4 scenarios are based on IPCC have a high bleaching threshold of 32°C, making snorkeling and diving to explore ancient Phoe- 30 32.0 forecasts (No Impact corresponds the Gulf a coral refuge (Fine, 2013). nician ruins. Additionally, heightened seawater to RCP 2.6, Mid impact corresponds 26.0 acidification poses significant threats to coastal 23.1 to RCP 4.5, and High Impact Morocco is projected to experience significant tourist destinations, potentially altering marine 20 21.4 corresponds to RCP 8.5). increases in mean annual temperatures, with ecosystems (USAID, 2016). higher values anticipated in interior regions 14.7 NO impact scenario compared to coastal areas. The frequency of Morocco’s coastline faces significant risks of ero- 10 Mid impact scenario tropical nights and hot days is expected to rise, sion and floods, with 42 percent of it expected to High impact scenario potentially altering tourists’ travel patterns and be at high risk by 2030, posing threats to coastal demand (IPCC, 2023). infrastructure and natural spaces. The estimated 2040 2060 annual cost of asset destruction from coastal erosion amounts to 0.2 percent of the country’s SEA LEVEL RISE AND COASTAL EROSION GDP, highlighting the socio-economic vulnera- bility to accelerated sea-level rise, especially in Forecasted tourism arrivals to Lebanon (in millions) Sea level rise will have direct impacts on the erosion and inundation of sandy beaches, ma- low-lying areas. This jeopardizes tourism assets 40 42.4 rine ecosystems, and the gradual regression of such as passenger port infrastructure, maritime heritage sites, beaches, and natural spaces like 38.4 shorelines. Given that coastal tourism is a major -28% activity in the region, the livelihoods of service Ja’farine, Cala Iris, and Skhirat (IPCC, 2023). -58% 30 31.0 workers could be severely impacted. A Do-Nothing-Scenario reveals that interna- 27.8 25.8 In Egypt, coastal tourism is estimated to account tional tourism arrivals could start falling by 20 for about half of the country’s tourism, attracting the mid-2030s due to climate change, leading to losses of up to 28 percent in arrivals in 17.6 a total of 13.6 million visitors and contributing about 12 percent to Egypt’s GDP in 2019. The Egypt and Lebanon and up to 19 percent in 10 economic benefits of coastal tourism to local Morocco by 2040 (see Figure 8). communities are projected to be adversely Beyond the long-term effects of climate change, impacted due to coral reef bleaching, retreat the tourism industry is particularly vulnerable 2040 2060 of mangrove areas in the Red Sea, and coastal to extreme weather events. Changes in weather erosion on the Mediterranean coast. Additionally, patterns, such as increased precipitation or daily losses to tourism revenue in the Red Sea’s heatwaves, can disrupt tourism activities, dam- Sahl Hasheesh and Makadi Bay are estimated to Forecasted tourism arrivals to Morocco (in millions) age infrastructure, and impact visitor experience. be in excess of US$350,000 by 2050, resulting in Similarly, droughts, dust, and sandstorms have damage to infrastructure (World Bank, 2022). been shown to be disruptive forces. For example, 33.4 30 In Lebanon, the coastal plain on the west side of in spring 2022, recurrent strong sandstorms dis- 30.2 the country, housing major tourism destinations rupted tourism in the city of Hurghada, a famous 26.8 24.5 like Beirut and Byblos, faces a projected sea beach city on Egypt’s Red Sea coast. As a result, 20 22.8 level rise of 30 to 60 centimeter by 2040, leading the tourists were advised to stay in hotels and all the ports were closed (Parfenenko, 2022). 16.9 to coastal erosion and damage to tourism 10 2040 2060 13 14 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 3 | Climate Change Risks for Tourism in MENA Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco 3.2 Compounding Factors of Tourism BOX 1: TOURISM RELATED GHG EMISSIONS Sector’s Vulnerability to Climate Change While the region’s tourism sector is threatened by climate change, it is also contributing to release some of the pressure from its major it by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The tourism sector’s contribution to GHG emissions CONCENTRATED AND SEASONAL sites and ensure a year-round visitor arrival. is generally linked to tourism activities as well as transport, accommodation, and catering TOURISM PRODUCTS A large share of World Heritage sites in MENA (Sustainable Travel International, 2018). are in coastal areas, which are at risk of flooding, Most tourism activities are limited to a few erosion, and sea level rise, threatening their out- Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) of tourism in Morocco is around 20 MtCO2 (2015) destinations. In Egypt, Cairo, Luxor, and the Red standing universal value and potentially leading Sea receive the bulk of the arrivals and commer- Domestic to losses in economic revenues. The region must & land cial accommodation establishments. In Lebanon, 5.2% of total Air transport Cruises protect its non-renewable culture and natural country emissions tourism is centered around winter tourism, rural resources not only for economic gains but also come from tourism and ecotourism, and coastal tourism. The coast- 57% for maintaining a sense of cohesion and identity line holds 19 percent of natural areas, 49 kilometer Tourism 5% among its future generations. of sandy, rocky and pebble beaches and dunes, Industry 10% 43% and 18 kilometers of tourist resorts. Further, most of the visited cultural/archaeological heritage HIGH POTENTIAL FOR JOB LOSSES Agriculture 17% Activities Accommodation Food Waste sites (Tripoli, Byblos, Beirut, Saida, Tyre, etc.) and DURING SHOCKS main urban destinations are also located along Emissions per type of accomodation the coast. In Morocco, there are two prominent Climate change exerts a significant toll on tourist destinations: Marrakech and Agadir, with the tourism sector’s jobs in Lebanon, Egypt, Hotels 24 both destinations accounting for around half of and Morocco. In the face of climate change, Higher the national total arrivals, 55 percent of visitors’ the hospitality sector faces the greatest decline emissions Secondary 24 hotel nights in Morocco and capture over a half of in job losses across the three countries, with residences Energy 68% accommodation expenditure. an average of 12.5 to 36.7 percent (see Table Production 2). These figures underscore the urgent need With 42 UNESCO World Heritage Sites at for adaptive labor market measures within the Riads/Guest houses 22 Risk (see Figure 10), MENA must develop tourism industry to alleviate climate change Lower emissions measures to diversify the products offered to impacts on employment.8 Campings 6 Figure 10: World Heritage sites Figure 9: GHG emissions in Morocco. in MENA (Red dots indicated heritage in danger). Morocco’s tourism sector contributes 5.2 percent of the nation’s total emissions – see Figure 9 above for sub-sector emissions. The sector’s emissions are dominated by air transport and polluting accommodation options, hindering efforts to reduce emissions. Rising emissions from air transport, pose a challenge despite road transport being the primary mode within Morocco. Riads and campsites are considered less polluting due to traditional architecture, while energy consumption in touristic accommodation remains a significant emission source. Efforts to address the impacts of air transport and accommodation are crucial for reducing tourism-related emissions in Morocco. 15 16 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 3 | Climate Change Risks for Tourism in MENA Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco Table 2: Potential job losses in the three countries. Morocco Egypt -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Accommodation and food is hit hardest, but Losses are strongest in the accommodation and transport and entertainment also suffer losses. -2.10% -2.70% Services food sectors. Tourism in Egypt is often bought as Services Other sectors, for instance, agriculture or trade, are -1.19% -1.10% a package, and much of the services and large affected by indirect effects along the value chain. -1.00% shares of the respective value chains remain in -0.90% Relative losses in trade and manufacturing are Agriculture Agriculture -0.55% the country of origin where the tour is booked and -0.30% small, but they can hurt very small businesses. 34 Manufacturing does not show in domestic output. A more than 30 Manufacturing percent of all workers in micro, small and medium -0.91% percent loss may lead to the closure of some hotels, -0.60% Utilities & Utilities & enterprises (MSMEs) work in either very small -0.50% -0.23% Construction especially when not part of an international chain. Construction enterprises or micro enterprises. Micro enterprises -1.00% If hotels go bankrupt, this will cause ripple effects -0.30% are highly vulnerable because they face challenges Trade which can make the jobs impact in some sectors Trade in accessing finance or information to become more -0.54% -0.16% worse. With an average of 67 percent of all jobs, resilient. A vendor selling tourist goods, such as -10.20% Egypt has high shares of informality in the labor -9.50% handicrafts or other souvenirs, will lose much of their Transport Transport -5.69% market. While the highest shares are in agriculture -2.31% livelihood and might go out of business when facing and construction, accommodation, and food, as losses of up to 20 percent. More than 23 thousand -7.60% Arts & well as transport show above average rates. Most -13.40% Arts & MSMEs can be found in the accommodation and -4.22% Entertainment -2.77% Entertainment workers in small enterprises are highly vulnerable to food sector. Small street vendors of snacks and -36.70% Accommodation shocks, with little resilience or protection. -29.10% Accommodation beverages, but also hotels and accommodations -20.46% & food -14.30% & food not belonging to large international chains fall into this group. More than 45 thousand enterprises are -20% -15% 10% -5% 0% -20% -15% 10% -5% 0% MSMEs in warehousing and transport, comprising taxi enterprises, deliveries, and lately increasingly location-based gig workers, such as Careem/In -15% -10% -5% 0% Lebanon Drive drivers in Casablanca, Rabat, or Tangier. -36.70% The Lebanese economy is heavily integrated with the Upper boundary Lower boundary Relative difference Services -20.46% service sector and tourist packages are serviced by Lebanese agencies. In the mountain resorts, tourists -0.40% Agriculture employ many services around skiing, other winter -0.30% sports, and recreational activities. Tourism activity LIMITED AND UNRELIABLE DATA at risk. As discussed above, many key tourist Manufacturing touches many sectors, from accommodation and destinations in Egypt, Lebanon and Morocco are -0.10% Utilities & food services, to transport, agriculture, and other In the tourism sector, a robust statistical highly exposed to climate risks. Consequently, -0.10% Construction data platform is essential for informed increased adoption of early warning systems in services (e.g., tour guides, travel agencies). Many -0.60% of these are low-productivity, low-wage sectors. decision-making, optimizing strategies, and climate and disaster-sensitive tourism destina- Trade -0.30% In Lebanon, tourist areas span urban and rural ensuring sustainable growth. The use of data tions emerges as a critical means for building locations. Beyond mountain resorts, many tourist and technologies empowers policy makers to the sector’s adaptation and resilience. Real-time -1.50% Transport attractions are concentrated around Beirut and make informed and evidence-based decisions data can be used to support agile decision-mak- -0.90% nearby coastal areas, as well as Baalbek in the north, pertaining to the tourism sector. The creation ing, informed by monitoring consumer behavior -2.20% Arts & and Tyre in the south (without taking into account of a statistical data platform is necessary to and preferences, capacity of destinations, and -0.90% Entertainment the recent hostilities). measure and monitor indicators, including anticipating disruptions from external variables environmental, social, and economic impacts. such as weather conditions. In the city of Petra -12.20% Accommodation -4.70% & food in Jordan, an early warning system to proactively Given the high vulnerability of the tourism mitigate the risks associated with weather -9% -6% -3% 0% sector to climate hazards, the absence of emergencies and flash floods was recently early warning systems puts tourists, destina- launched (see Box 2). tions, assets, infrastructure, and livelihoods 17 18 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 3 | Climate Change Risks for Tourism in MENA Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco Egypt and Morocco have started to develop and includes tourist arrivals by country of origin platforms that integrate tourism data. Egypt and by border posts, overnight stays in tourist has a statistical platform that integrates establishments per category, tourism receipts, BOX 2: EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR FLASH FLOODS IN PETRA tourism data; the Statistical Yearbooks of the and occupancy rates, among others. Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAMPAS) includes data on tourist Beyond these initiatives, which represent Petra Development and Tourism Region Authority (PDTRA) recently launched its second early arrivals distribution per country and arrival a key starting point in decision-making warning system (EWS) in collaboration with the Municipal Support Programme funded by the USAID and Arabia Weather. The primary objective is to proactively mitigate the risks associated with method, hotel capacity, and occupancy rates. processes, great potential is detected to various weather emergencies, particularly flashfloods, safeguard the well-being of citizens, tourists, Morocco systemically collects tourism-related include new indicators that provide relevant archaeological sites, and both public and private assets. The system will provide monitoring maps, data as part of the statistical database of the information on the sustainability of tourism risk level maps and hourly weather forecasts for the next five days. Haut-Commissariat au Plan (HCP) and the activity in both countries. Collecting data Moroccan Tourism Observatory. The latter offers on tourists’ expenditure per category would The early warning system for flashfloods aims to send warnings to official authorities and citizens about floods in the Petra region and to strengthen coordination between concerned parties. Further, updated and complete data on tourist activities improve data-driven decision making and better it seeks to provide decision-makers with the required information about rainfall amounts and flood at the national level and in the country’s main understand the impacts of climate change on heights in the main valleys. destinations. Information is collected monthly the tourism value chain, including on informal sectors and microenterprises. Petra EWS for Flash Flood works primarily through two systems. The rain gauge station and the water level station. When it starts raining, a rain gauge (tipping bucket) in the rain gauge station measures the amount of precipitation in a certain area over a certain period. At the water level station the height of the flowing water in the valleys is measured using a device using ultrasound. Then the rainfall data is uploaded from the rain station/water level station to the data center through radio and then processed through the NOVASTAR5 software. The appropriate warning is then issued according to the alarm trigger list. Source: Jordan Times 2024 Figure 11: Petra, The Urn Tomb (credit: Michele C). 19 20 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco The tourism sector in Egypt, Lebanon and Informed by the co-visioning consultations, Morocco reflects a tale of social disparities, the nexus of tourism, territorial development, where economic benefits are often concen- and climate action is an opportunity to trated in certain regions while leaving others mitigate rural migration as an adaptation marginalized. In Morocco, tourism serves as strategy through creating job opportunities. a significant contributor to employment, yet As discussed in this section, tourism significantly historically, it has centered on coastal areas influences territorial development and contributes and imperial cities, neglecting rural regions. to infrastructure development, job creation, and National strategies call for an inclusive approach, economic growth. However, on the flip side, advocating for responsible tourism that spreads over-tourism can strain local resources, disrupt its benefits across all regions. For example, ecosystems, and lead to social and cultural initiatives like the development of sustainable challenges. Adaptation strategies are crucial rural tourism in provinces such as Azilal and to address climate-related risks in vulnerable Béni Mellal in Morocco aim to promote balanced territories. Investments in green infrastructure, development by leveraging tourism. However, renewable energy, and eco-friendly transportation challenges persist, including inadequate networks would enhance MENA’s tourism com- infrastructure, neglected tourist sites, and a lack petitiveness, attracting discerning travelers who of skilled workforce and coordination among seek authentic and sustainable experiences. Local stakeholders. Similarly, in Egypt and Lebanon, communities actively participating in tourism despite economic progress, pockets of poverty development could benefit from inclusive initia- endure, particularly in rural areas, highlighting tives that empower them to share their traditions the need for concerted efforts to ensure that and benefit from resulting economic growth. the benefits of tourism are equitably distributed across all segments of society. 4 | TOURISM AS A LEVER TO DEVELOP LAGGING REGIONS 22 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 4 | Tourism as a Lever to Develop Lagging Regions Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco 4.1 Tourism and Territorial Development 4.2 Job Creation Potential Investing in sustainable tourism plays a crucial employment opportunities, especially in rural Increasing tourism demand in alternative the impacts of climate change (see Table 3). role in addressing the challenges faced by lag- areas where other industries may be limited. destinations creates jobs and improves the Depending on the region, investments would ging regions with tourism potential. Morocco’s Also, money spent by tourists circulates within livelihood of local communities. A modeling be needed to expand accommodation capacity, region of Tangier is a successful example of the local economy, benefiting various sectors. exercise was conducted to assess the potential improve connectivity, provide hospitality training transformation through targeted development Furthermore, tourism attracts private and public socio-economic benefits of serving currently to local communities, and increase advertising and programs based on infrastructure and connec- investment in utilities and transport infrastruc- undervalued regions in the three countries, given marketing. This approach will reduce the negative tivity investments (see Box 3). Tourism provides ture. In addition, the preservation of historical that all three countries show patterns of tourism impact of climate change on the current config- a source of income for local communities and cultural sites and the revival of traditional concentration in certain destinations. A 10 percent uration of tourist destinations and segments and through various activities such as accommoda- crafts and local products support small busi- increase in tourism demand9 could yield gains strengthen the product portfolio offering to expand tion, restaurants, and guided tours. It generates nesses and provide income for artisans. in both the arts and entertainment sector and to other sectors, such as rural tourism, eco-tourism, the accommodation and food sectors, excluding adventure tourism, and mountain tourism. Table 3: Potential job gains in the three countries from serving undervalued regions. BOX 3: FROM LAGGING TO LEADING: REVIVING TANGIER 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Egypt Services 0.80% 0.23% Additional tourism demand of 10 percent in Tangier offers a promising development model—ex- 0.40% regions such as Alexandria, Giza, Luxor, and Agriculture -0.11% Aswan could generate more jobs. Up to 13 ploiting pre-existing advantages in market access, Manufacturing combined with a raft of well-thought-out complements. Utilities & 0.30% percent of additional jobs could be created in the 0.10% In 2002, Tangier was a lagging region in Morocco. Construction accommodation and food sectors in the regions, However, the government of Morocco recognized that Trade 0.30% 18 percent in the arts and entertainment sector, 0.10% and up to four percent in the transport sector. The it could better leverage Tangier’s strategic location at a Transport 3.60% jobs impact of the transport sector does not take trade crossroads between the Middle East, Africa, and 1.09% Europe. It invested €1 billion to develop and expand into account additional employment from tours to Arts & 17.90% the currently underserved regions. Small spillover Tangier’s port and develop the surrounding city and Entertainment 5.38% region through transport infrastructure in roads and effects in services, construction and agriculture Accommodation 13.10% rail; industrial and logistics free-trade zones; training & food 3.93% are expected. and education of the local workforce; and collaboration 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% across government agencies and private sector stake- 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Lebanon holders to spur international investment. The area was governed under an alternative legal framework that Services 5.40% addressed core institutional and business environment 1.90% Additional tourism demand of 10 percent in challenges elsewhere in the country. The region en- 0.20% the North and South regions in Lebanon could Agriculture 0.10% generate more jobs. Five percent additional joyed 28 percent employment growth in just two years Manufacturing (2002–04), and investment grew 13.2 percent annu- Utilities & 0.10% jobs could be created in the services sector and 0.00% the accommodation and food sectors in the ally. The local and regional economy became more Construction diversified and saw production increases in tradable Trade 0.20% regions, and up to one percent in the arts and 0.10% entertainment sector. The services sector is one manufacturing-intensive sectors such as the automo- Transport 0.60% of the strongest economic sectors in Lebanon, tive industry. As a result, the region evolved from one 0.03% of Morocco’s most lagging in 2000 to one of the most comprising recreational, health, and business Arts & 0.90% services. Small spillover effects in transport, leading today. Entertainment 0.30% construction and agriculture are expected. Figure 12: Tangier (credit: Ning Accommodation 4.80% Source: World Bank 2023 Tranquiligold Jin). & food 1.50% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 23 24 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 4 | Tourism as a Lever to Develop Lagging Regions Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco Table 3 (continued): Potential job gains in the three countries from serving undervalued regions. 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Morocco 4.4 The promise of eco-tourism Services 1.80% 0.94% Additional tourism demand of 13 percent in regions such as Ifrane, Oujda-Saidia, Essaouira- In MENA, a change in tourist preferences has eco-tourism could offer alternative livelihoods 0.6% Agriculture 0.25% Mogador, Ouarzazate, Meknes and Oued led to an increased demand for eco-tourism. to rural populations who are affected by climate Manufacturing Ed-dahab could generate more jobs. Up to 19 Current tourism practices have led to significant change (that is by producing non-timber forest 0.40% Utilities & percent of additional jobs could be created in the pressure on natural and cultural assets upon products such as medicinal and aromatic plants). 0.19% Construction 0.20% accommodation and food sectors in the regions, which tourism depends on. Ecotourism10 focuses Addressing these challenges requires the prom- Trade 0.14% eight percent in the arts and entertainment on responsible travel, promoting both conser- ulgation of appropriate regulations to protect the 6.20% sector, including tour guides, and up to six vation and the well-being of local communities. environment, tailored marketing of destinations Transport 1.99% percent in the transport sector. Small spillover Demand for eco-tourism has increased over the and services, collaboration between private Arts & 8.80% effects in services, construction and agriculture years across hotels and restaurants, with the and public sectors as well as local communities, Entertainment 2.38% are expected. concept expanding across MENA. For example, investment in training for service providers, and Accommodation 19.10% & food 12.39% the Feynan Ecolodge in Jordan’s Dana Nature promotion of sustainable practices. 0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Reserve was designed to operate in harmony with its habitat, minimizing the impact of tour- Although the referenced countries are reposi- ism on the surrounding natural environment by tories of significant environmental assets, the Upper boundary Lower boundary Relative difference promoting resource efficiency in energy, water, concept of nature-based tourism or ecotour- and waste (Ecohotels, n.d.). ism is still not fully exploited. Lessons learned from COVID-19 tend to suggest a growing pref- 4.3 Resource efficiency and Eco- and nature-based tourism offer signif- erence for nature-based tourism that intersects environmental sustainability icant potential for mitigating the adverse with outdoor recreation, natural environments, impacts of climate change on tourism. and sustainability. Nature-based tourism refers Eco-tourism offers a win-win opportunity as to travel experiences that revolve around natural Promoting circular economy and resource development and improving service delivery it contributes to protecting the tourism assets, environments, wildlife, and outdoor activities. By efficiency is vital given that climate change is while reducing the sector’s contribution to GHG growing the business, and sharing the benefits. If its inherent contribution to conservation, sustain- likely to make resources, such as water scarcer emissions. In all three countries, air travel is the implemented well, eco-tourism can preserve nat- ability, fostering environmental awareness, and and could improve jobs outcomes. Water largest contributor to GHG emissions. However, all ural resources, diversify income sources for local development in lagging regions, nature-based plays a vital role in the tourism sector across all three countries are heavily reliant on tourist arriv- communities and enhance resilience to climate tourism is beneficial to individuals, communities, countries. As such, adopting measures to promote als, and curbing air travel would significantly affect change. MENA’s pristine landscapes and natural and regions. Given the impact of climate change resource efficiency, such as rationalizing water use, the sector. In Morocco, 7.5 million passengers resources abundance offer a diverse range of and other disturbance factors, adaptation enhancing the efficiency of water service delivery arrived by plane compared to 1.8 million by land unique tourism spots, including deserts, oases, strategies are crucial for long-term planning in systems and reducing non-revenue water is in 2022. Identifying other opportunities to reduce forests, marine and coastal reserves. Yet climate nature-based tourism. recommended. In Egypt, this could help save over the sector’s contribution would help offset the change threatens all these assets. Moreover, two BCM of water annually (Egypt CCDR). Pro- emissions, such as renewable energy and energy moting resource efficiency could also reduce the efficiency as well as green mobility. In Lebanon, tourism sector’s impact on the environment. The road transport accounted for 25 percent of total adoption of circular economy, include better waste emissions in 2019, and Lebanon’s urban zones management, also has the potential to creating are among the highly polluted areas globally due job opportunities, especially for rural communities to high congestion levels, lack of reliable public living in regions close to major tourist destinations transport and non-motorized transport options. (such as Marrakesh in Morocco). Reforms to increase green mobility options, includ- ing public transport and non-motorized transport, Promoting green alternatives in the energy and will be crucial to reducing a significant share of transport sector could contribute to regional road-transport-related carbon emissions. 25 26 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco The transition to sustainable and climate ing climate-resilient infrastructure, balancing responsive mode of tourism is imperative not tourism growth with conservation efforts, and only for building resilience against climate involving local communities in decision-making. change but also for advancing development The above can be achieved through the adoption outcomes. Based on the above analysis, Egypt, of a whole-of-government approach to tourism Lebanon and Morocco (and the wider MENA with various government agencies working region) have an immense potential to leverage together to develop and implement policies sustainable and climate-smart tourism towards that support the sector. Further, horizontal and advancing their development needs, namely vertical coordination within and between levels creating jobs, develop lagging regions and of government is crucial and ensures that all building an overall economic resilience against relevant departments collaborate effectively all kind of shocks. (See Annex 1). Governments should also engage with stakeholders, including the private sector, Promoting climate resilience, sustainable local communities, and civil society to ensure tourism development and territorial develop- that long-term tourism strategies are well-in- ment require integrated approaches. Achieving formed and implemented successfully. a harmonious nexus between tourism devel- opment, territorial development, enhanced Several key recommendations aimed at promot- natural capital conservation and climate change ing a transition to sustainable and climate-smart mitigation requires coherent tourism policies modes of tourism in the three countries, and that are aligned with broader national objectives the wider MENA region are summarized below. (for example, environment, transportation, Detailed, country-specific recommendations culture, and economic development). These are described in each of the country profiles in measures have to be balanced with implement- Annexes 2, 3 and 4. 5 | RECOMMENDATIONS TOWARDS CLIMATE- SMART TOURISM 28 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 5 | Recommendations Towards Climate-Smart Tourism Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco Recommendation 1 | Adapt to Climate Change Impacts to Diversify tourism offerings and develop marginalized destinations: promotion; and product mix, through assessing development needs and opportunities. Ensure the Long-Term Viability of the Tourism Industry • Reduce air connections within region • Develop alternative tourism products, including medical tourism, religious and (Egypt and Morocco). Using appropriate Manage resource scarcity and environmental • In rural areas, explore climate-smart spiritual tourism, gastronomic tourism, cultural tax incentives, build connecting green sustainability: territorial development strategies. The tourism, conferences/events, and so on. infrastructure (such as fast rail, etc.). strategies could include rainwater harvesting, • Implement awareness campaigns and • Develop comprehensive, country- • Develop site management plans that rain gardens aimed at mitigating stormwater incentives to promote sustainable tourism. specific guidelines to enhance both ensure careful management and take into runoff, planter boxes, bioswales, permeable Promote destinations and businesses that are energy and water efficiency in large- account climate change impacts. A site pavements, green roofs, urban tree canopy, committed to best environmental practices scale accommodations. These guidelines management plan should be developed and so on. to attract responsible segments of tourists. should encompass establishing demand for each site and should address tourism Protect the coastal environments in the region: performance and impacts; working structures Additionally, inform tourists about sustainable management procedures and guidelines, and communication; overall appeal and practices and the importance of reducing defining minimum criteria for the installation • Ensure that all coastal areas are covered appearance, access, infrastructure and visitor their environmental and carbon footprint of energy and water-efficient equipment, and under an Integrated Coastal Zone services; destination image, branding and during their stay. delineating best practices for effective energy Management Plan (ICZM). ICZM is a and water management. comprehensive strategy aimed at sustainably • Mapping of the biodiversity richness and managing the coastal areas to balance ecosystems services of natural landscapes economic development, environmental Recommendation 2 | Use Tourism as an Anchor for such as Oases, forests and other protected protection, and social well-being. An ICZM habitats that will serve as alternate for tourist plan includes land-use planning, marine Inclusive Territorial Development a destination to enjoy leisure with nature in spatial planning, conservation of biodiversity, the hinterland. coastal erosion and sedimentation, pollution Promote Social Inclusion by involving all quality improvement, health impacts, and user • Incentivize circular economy, the adoption control, coral reefs and dune restoration, stakeholders in decision-making process: perception (see Box 4 for examples of relevant of renewable energy, and water-efficient infrastructure development, and community World Bank work in the region). technologies, including alternative energy engagement. It integrates various sectors • Involve marginalized groups in decision- and stakeholders, including government making processes and ensure that the • Finance the installation of renewable sources, wastewater treatment for non- energies in tourist businesses, such as solar potable purposes, rainwater harvesting agencies, local communities, businesses, and benefits of tourism are distributed equitably. environmental organizations, to ensure a Pay specific attention to engaging the female panels or wind turbines, to supply tourist systems, and sustainable landscaping facilities and reduce their carbon footprint. practices for green spaces (such as the use of holistic and collaborative approach to coastal population in job creation and income drought-resistant plants). management. generating activities. • In urban destinations promote urban • Develop adaptation plans for physical Develop attractive urban and rural places for greening by incorporating nature-based • Limit the development of new solutions such as planting trees and highly energy and water-demanding cultural resources that are close to the ports the residents and tourists alike: and water bodies. Ensure that monuments developing parks for cooling effect, promoting infrastructures (resorts, hotels, golf, etc.). • Ensure that public spaces are well developed, green roofs in both public and private This is applicable in those in-land and coastal and archaeological sites are protected from safe, clean, and can offer tourism-related buildings, green shading in open air tourist destinations with the highest risk of energy climate change-induced impacts such as products and services. Upgrading public attractions, and reducing artificial surfaces. and water shortages. increased humidity, extreme weather events, spaces requires a holistic approach that and changes in groundwater levels. • Monitor energy and water consumption in considers safety, community engagement, places where digitized meters do not exist. 29 30 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 5 | Recommendations Towards Climate-Smart Tourism Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco Recommendation 3 | Build Better Data Infrastructure for Tourism BOX 4: WORLD BANK EXPERIENCE IN TOURISM DEVELOPMENT OF MEDINAS. • Improve stakeholders’ collaboration • Create a statistical data platform to monitor The World Bank’s portfolio in tourism development projects indicates its emphasis on data. Government to establish data the environmental and socio-economic on upgrading, infrastructure development, and service provision. Some examples are collection protocols, invest in technological impact of tourism. This would include highlighted here. infrastructure, and encourage transparency monitoring among others, waste management Jordan Second Tourism Development Project successfully implemented various among tourism businesses. Also, collaboration practices, water consumption, and energy enhancement initiatives across eight medinas and tourism sites, focusing on urban with private enterprises, including hotels, efficiency in tourist accommodations to infrastructure, access roads, traffic management, and landscaping improvements. tour operators, and transportation services better ascertain understand the impact of The project included upgrades to signage, interpretation, trails, and water and waste to collect visitors’ demographics, resource tourism on local ecosystems. Socio-economic management systems. Key improvements were made to drainage systems in Wadi Musa consumption, and economic impact is highly indicators would measure community and Siq to mitigate seasonal flooding, while riding trails were introduced to expand recreational options. Additionally, new visitor centers, craft-training facilities, and police important. Furthermore, engaging local engagement, cultural preservation, and the stations were constructed in Wadi Rum, with pilot preservation projects in Karak and communities to collect qualitative insights equitable distribution of economic benefits. Jerash. These interventions not only improved local services but also enhanced the overall into the socio-cultural dimensions of tourism The above-mentioned information would visitor experience and environmental efficiency, making the medinas and sites more is needed. Finally, academic institutions and allow decision-makers to tailor marketing functional and attractive. non-governmental organizations can support strategies, and develop appropriate policies Lebanon Cultural Heritage and Urban Development Project aimed at enhancing five the above by conducting research, validating that foster economic resilience, particularly in medinas, including preservation efforts for key monuments and heritage sites. These data, and providing expertise on sustainability the face of external challenges. interventions span across Baalbeck, Byblos, Saida, Tripoli, and Tyre, including UNESCO indicators. World Heritage-listed archaeological sites. The project rehabilitate these areas by upgrading public spaces, preserving historic structures, supporting cultural activities, revitalizing housing, enforcing zoning regulations, improving traffic flow and parking, safeguarding coastal and green areas, and conducting urban redevelopment studies. Activities included street paving, lighting, reconstruction of public stairs, building consolidation, facade and storefront renovations, square redesigns, landscaping, and infrastructure reorganization to minimize visual impact. Additionally, basic repairs are conducted in semi-public spaces, preceded by improvements to drainage, water supply, and sanitation networks, alongside conservation efforts for classified monuments and historic buildings. Jordan Cultural Heritage, Tourism, and Urban Development Project focused on revitalizing five medinas by enhancing street networks, public spaces, and building facades, as well as preserving and repurposing heritage buildings. Additionally, pivotal urban areas were rehabilitated, essential municipal facilities constructed or upgraded, and traffic and parking management plans implemented. The project extended to the development of Petra, a UNESCO World Heritage Site and Jordan’s leading tourism destination, building upon previous efforts. Its overarching goals included improving living conditions, conserving historic assets, and stimulating the local economy through tourism growth. Source: World Bank 2010 31 32 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco Annex 1 | Key Stakeholders in Tourism To achieve the vision of a sustainable, inclu- Environment and/or culture for environmental sive, and resilient tourism sector, coordination and cultural management; sector ministries, across the various stakeholders is required. SOEs or municipalities for service provision; and Various stakeholders in the public and private a specialized investment authority for investment sectors collaborate to create an enabling promotion. A Ministerial Tourism Committee environment for tourism development, attract often supports coordination efforts and advises investments, improve infrastructure, enhance the government on tourism policy formulation, services, and promote these countries as premier strategic planning, and regulatory reforms to tourist destinations. Across the three countries, enhance the competitiveness and sustainability tourism policies and regulations are mainly of the tourism sector in each of these countries. governed by the Ministry of Tourism, which The table below provides more details on key drives tourism development, manages tourist stakeholders in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco, sites and museums, and protects antiquities. based on a stakeholder mapping exercise Other ministries and public authorities are also conducted with key representatives from the engaged in tourism, including: the Ministry of Fi- Ministry of Tourism from Egypt, Lebanon and nance for overall financing and budgeting; sector Morocco during the Sustainable and Climate ministries for infrastructure investments; Ministry Smart Tourism Workshop on 28—29 February of Urban Planning (or similar public authority) 2024 in Marrakesh, Morocco (see Table 4). for land use and urban planning; Ministries of Table 4: Key stakeholders in tourism. Egypt Lebanon Morocco Tourism-specific Ministry of Tourism policies and In coordination with: In coordination with regulations the Ministry of Interior -Ministry of Environment (governorates) -Ministry of Interior -Ministry of Transport -Ministry of Irrigation Financing and Ministry of Finance Budgeting Infrastructure- Sectoral ministries related policies, Ministry of Housing and Ministry of Public Works and Sector Ministries if below strategies and Urban Development Transport MAD 200 million regulations Ministry of Transport Ministry of Energy and Water Ministry of Investment for convergence and ANNEXES Ministry of Local Development evaluating of public policies 34 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco Table 4 (continued): Key stakeholders in tourism. Infrastructure Sectoral ministries Sector ministries in collaboration with local/ investments regional entities Annex 2 | Egypt Country Brief Ministry of Housing and Service-sector ministries Sector Ministries through Urban Development Council for Development and specific agencies and Ministry of Electricity Research regional development Tourism stands as a cornerstone of Egypt’s velopment Strategy; it is focused on developing entities economy, attracting numerous visitors to new eco-friendly resorts that leverage Egypt’s Ministry of Petroleum Municipalities its historic landmarks, vibrant cities, and natural landscapes, the creation of additional Service Sectoral ministries SOEs, utility companies and local entities seascapes. Accounting for 8.5 percent of the tourist and residential zones particularly along provision Ministry of Housing and Utility companies (EDL, Public agencies and nation’s GDP in 2019, the sector is a vital source the North Coast, and the implementation of an Urban Development water establishments and state-owned enterprises of income and employment that supports open sky aviation policy to encourage increased Ministry of Electricity telecommunications) 2.4 million jobs. In 2019, tourism generated air travel connectivity. Municipalities for solid waste US$15.4 billion in revenue, predominantly from Ministry of Petroleum international visitors focused on leisure. The Egypt’s tourism sector is vulnerable to cli- Land use and Public institutions responsible for urban planning mate change as underscored by the Climate urban planning sector primarily draws tourists from Europe (62.7 National Center for Planning Ministry of Public Works and Ministry of urban planning, Change Risk Index. The Climate Change Risk and Land Use Plans Transport in collaboration with percent), the Arab region (25 percent), and the Americas (4.7 percent), according to CAPMAS Index, ranging from 0 (low risk) to 1 (high risk), Supreme Council for Urban Directorate General of Urban relevant ministries 2020 data. Egypt offers year-round destinations indicates a national level at 0.52 for Egypt in the Planning Planning (DGUP) year 2023, with continuously growing trends. for tourists, rooted through its variety of attrac- Municipalities for This also entails the country’s main destinations implementation tions, including the Nile Valley, Pyramids, and the Red Sea. such as Cairo (0.52), Luxor (0.46), and the Red Environmental Ministry of Environment Sea (0.56) (see Figure 13). and cultural In collaboration with The Egyptian tourism sector, despite its management municipalities (through the growth, confronts substantial challenges Egypt Red Sea Cairo Luxor (including Ministry of Interior), Ministry that necessitate comprehensive strategic 0.65 enforcement) of Agriculture, and Ministry of reforms. The sector does not strongly leverage 0.60 0.61 Culture 0.60 opportunities of ecotourism, conference tourism, 0.60 0.57 0.58 Investment Specialized authority for investment and religious tourism, which could significantly 0.56 0.55 0.58 promotion General Authority for Investment Development Moroccan Agency for 0.55 0.57 resolve hurdles of seasonal dependence. 0.52 0.54 Investment Authority of Lebanon (IDAL) Investment and Export Notably, the sector grapples with low occupancy 0.53 0.49 0.50 Development (AMDIE) 0.47 rates and supply-demand imbalances. Moreover, 0.46 0.45 Regional Investment the sector’s main obstacles include workforce 0.45 0.44 Centers (CRI) Max.=1.0; Min.=0.0 skill shortages, complex legislative and licensing Moroccan Agency for 0.40 procedures, insufficient infrastructure for tourist 2023 2020-39 2040-59 2060-79 2080-99 Tourism Development (SMIT) mobility, and pressing sustainability concerns related to energy, water, waste, and emissions. Figure 13: Climate change risk index (Egypt). Tourism sector Ministerial committees governance and Ministerial Committee for Tourism Committee in the Ministerial tourism Egypt prepared a Tourism Strategy for 2030 Source: Calculated as a weighted average of the coordination Tourism and the Tourism Parliament and the Inter- commission, chaired by which aims to increase Egypt’s touristic variables that define Exposures, Hazards and arrangements Advisory Board ministerial coordination the head of government, appeal across peer Arab countries. The Vulnerabilities affecting tourism in Egypt currently committee as well as several other and in the future years. Results have been normalized strategy targets increasing international arrivals commissions: (between 0, minimum and 1, maximum). to 30 million, tourist expenditure by 50 percent, -Air commission and securing US$10 billion in new foreign direct The escalating risk of climate change poses -Product commission investments and the number of hotel rooms. The a significant threat to Egypt’s tourism sector, -12 monitoring strategy is aligned with Egypt’s Sustainable De- with projections indicating a potential decline commissions for regional plans, chaired by Walis 35 36 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco in international arrivals. Forecasted data per Extreme temperature increases will alter leads to economic losses and reduced tourist 16 to 28 percent, with health and educational IPCC scenarios suggest that the sector might seasonal tourism in Egypt. By 2050, forecasts appeal as it entails the quality of beaches, marine tourism assumed to stay mostly unaffected by witness a reduction in tourist numbers starting indicate a rise in annual mean temperatures by life and biodiversity, and tourism infrastructure. climate change. from the mid-2030s, potentially decreasing 2°C to 3°C from historical norms, significantly by up to 28 percent post-2040, if no effective affecting the interior regions (like Luxor and As- Egypt’s tourism is highly concentrated in adaptation strategies are taken. This downturn wan) and peak summer months. With increased three main regions—the Red Sea coast, the IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE is anticipated to vary across key regions, with frequency, intensity, and duration from 9 to 77+ Mediterranean coast, and the Nile River—and ECONOMY Cairo, the Red Sea Governorates, and Luxor days by 2085, this trend is expected to redirect revolves around two primary segments: coastal and cultural/interior tourism. This concentration Climate change is expected to have varied facing varying levels of impact as influenced tourist flows to cooler periods or destinations. limits the sector’s ability to adapt to climate economic impacts on different tourism by their unique environmental and climatic Notably, the Hurghada region predicts tempera- change-induced variations both at local and destinations within Egypt, potentially altering conditions (see Figure 14). ture shifts that would impact seasonal suitability national levels. the sector’s financial contributions. According during months of spring and autumn. to IPCC scenarios, tourism arrivals in Cairo, the Trend if NO climate change impact Mid climate change impact scenario Due to climate change, Egypt is experiencing Coastal tourism, a critical driver of Egypt’s Red Sea Governorates, and Luxor could see de- High climate change impact scenario 40.000.000 shifting precipitation patterns. Most areas in economy, faces significant environmental clines of up to 16 percent, with tourism revenue Egypt are receiving less than 150 mm of annual challenges due to climate change. This losses potentially reaching 40 percent in Cairo 30.000.000 -28% rainfall expected due to decreased precipitation segment, which represents approximately half and 11 percent in Luxor by 2100. Coastal tourism, in the Upper Nile Basins and the Eastern Medi- of Egypt’s tourism sector, draws 13.6 million which constitutes about half of Egypt’s tourism 20.000.000 terranean coastal zone. By the end of the century, visitors, and contributes to around 12 percent to economy, faces substantial risks, including 10.000.000 projections indicate that annual precipitation the GDP in 2019. Particularly vulnerable areas economic losses from beach erosion in regions could fluctuate dramatically, decreasing by up are the Red Sea locales of Sharm El Sheikh like Hurghada, estimated to reduce resort 0 to 56 percent or increasing by up to 42 percent and Hurghada, as well as Mediterranean sites revenues by 3 to 30 percent between 2030 and 2020 2030 2040 2050 from the 1971-2000 averages. like Alexandria and Marsa Matrouh which host 2100, depending on the severity of sea-level the majority of hotel accommodations. Scuba rise scenarios. These changes, compounded by Figure 14: Forecasted tourism arrivals to Egypt. Water scarcity poses a critical risk to Egypt’s diving and snorkeling in the Red Sea is one of effects on water resources, coastal ecosystems, Source: Own estimates based on IPCC scenarios. tourism infrastructure. The country is expected the many attractions when visiting Egypt. Coral and public health, could detract between 2 to to experience longer dry seasons, potentially bleaching temperature increases, and coastal 6 percent from Egypt’s GDP by 2060. Generally, Climate change renders Egypt’s main extending from 1 to 70 additional days by 2085. erosion beyond the bearable will diminish the tourism in Egypt is often bought as packages in touristic geographies susceptible to natural This places the entire country under significant attractiveness of the coasts in Egypt’s mainland the home country, impeding significant domestic hazards. Main hazardous risks in Egypt range water stress and will most acutely occur in and in Sinai. The 9 months attractive travel output. from extreme temperatures, water scarcity, destinations of the central and northwestern period for the country from the 50s shrank to areas (World Bank, 2021). Droughts and reduced a mere 5 months as of today and will diminish Climate change’s impact on Egypt’s tourism coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, sea-level river flows pose vulnerability to water-based further (Elghoubashy et al. 2022). sector has profound implications on employ- rise and coral bleaching, affecting both coastal tourism activities such as Nile cruises and water ment across various sectors. It is estimated and cultural destinations. Particularly, tourist Cultural and interior tourism, essential for sports. Further, natural and heritage sites need that 30 percent of the jobs could be lost, leading activities that are localized in regions like the Egypt’s cultural preservation and identity, are to counteract the effects of climate change on to the closure of some hotels, particularly ones Nile Delta, the Mediterranean coast, and the vulnerable, but to a lesser extent, to climate groundwater and humidity; hence, oases and that are not affiliated with international chains. Red Sea coast are highly vulnerable to climate change. Cultural destinations in Luxor, Cairo or landmarks like the Pyramids of Giza necessitate As the accommodation and food services sector change. Natural and national heritage sites Alexandria are affected by climate change due robust water management strategies. face most consequences, this would trigger a such as Temple Nadura are also threatened by to coastal erosion and floods in coastal areas. In ripple effect that could exacerbate job losses in temperature rise, low precipitation levels and The threat of sea-level rise and associated parallel, the increasing humidity and rainstorms related sectors. The adverse effects of climate sandy winds caused by climate change. warming is a significant concern for coastal cause deterioration of ancient sites, such as change on tourism offer minimal resilience and Tourism in Egypt is prone to physical effects tourism destinations. Most notably in Alexan- damaging foundations, cracks in the facades protection to Egypt’s labor market, which is of temperature fluctuation, shifting precipita- dria and Port Said, the potential damage from of graves, or the change of the color of archae- marked by a 67 percent informality rate, general- tion, water scarcity, and sea-level rise. coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, and coral ological stones. Overall, losses range between ly across agriculture, construction, and transport. bleaching could undermine marine assets. This 37 38 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco sustainable development within the tourism dimensions—including energy usage, waste resource savings, cut down emissions, and min- STATE OF ADAPTATION industry as a crucial economic component, management, water conservation, food and imize their environmental footprint. Additionally, In Egypt, tourism-related emissions are alongside central efforts to promote cli- beverage services, green architecture, and the the platform promotes the Green Star Hotel and closely tied to air transport and the extensive mate-smart tourism, encourage the adoption of maintenance of gardens and beach areas. Hotels Green Fins certifications, with the latter focusing use of electricity within the accommodation green economy principles through clean energy are awarded Green Stars (ranging from 3 to on mitigating the adverse environmental effects sector. The national level data for 2019 indicate technologies and enhance energy efficiency 5) based on their environmental performance, of marine tourism. that electricity and heat account for 32 percent in tourism operations. This comprehensive with certification fees set between €200 and approach is further solidified by Egypt’s First €2,000, varying by the hotel’s category and room Egypt is keen on mainstreaming biodiversity of GHG emissions, with Egypt’s accommodation conservation into tourism development. sector alone contributing 1.5 percent to total Updated Nationally Determined Contributions count. These fees cover training, audit costs, and (NDC), which advocates for low-carbon develop- a 3-year license. By 2023, approximately 200 Under a five year project, Egypt aims to position emissions. Meanwhile, transportation, including itself as a prime destination for ecotourism and air travel, accounts for 16 percent of national ment and a greater implementation of renewable hotels, primarily located in Cairo, Luxor, along the energy solutions and efficiency measures across Red Sea, and on the Mediterranean coast, had community-based tourism. The project’s ex- emissions. In areas like the Luxor Governorate, pected outcomes include protecting biodiversity, tourism is responsible for 15 percent of emis- the tourism sector. achieved certification, marking a significant stride towards sustainability in Egypt’s tourism industry. creating a new protected area, and enhancing sions, whereas in the Red Sea Governorate, it Egypt has embarked on a series of adaptation the management of three others facing signifi- rises to 28 percent. These figures highlight the measures to address the impacts of climate Egypt has installed five solar power stations cant tourism pressure. Additionally, it seeks to sector’s dependence on air travel, which is change on its tourism sector, each aimed at in Egyptian world heritage sites and muse- include integrating biodiversity conservation into responsible for a significant portion of tourist enhancing sustainability and environmental ums under the Egypt PV project supported by the tourism sector’s practices, fostering stronger arrivals, and the need for more energy-efficient stewardship. the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and the cooperation among governmental entities for practices in hotels to mitigate their environmen- European Union. These stations were located at sustainable tourism, and introducing the first tal impact (see Figure 15). The Green Star Hotel Program represents the Giza Plateau’s Visitor Center, Manial Palace Strategic Environmental Assessment in the Egypt’s strategic adaptation to climate in Cairo, Sharm El Sheikh Museum, and The Red Sea region, underscoring a comprehensive Egypt is proactively shaping its tourism change within the tourism sector. This program sector’s response to climate change. Egypt’s National and the Royal Jewelry Museums (both strategy for sustainable tourism development. evaluates hotels across various operational in Alexandria). All power stations power capacity Climate Change Strategy 2050 emphasizes is estimated to reduce approximately 295 tons of CO2 per year. KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CLIMATE GHG emitting sectors at NATIONAL level GHG emitting sectors at NATIONAL level CHANGE ADAPTATION IN EGYPT’S Green Sharm El Sheikh project aims to establish Sharm El Sheikh as a model of ecological TOURISM SECTOR Total GHG emissions by sector (MtCO2e) (2019) Luxor Governorate sustainability within Egypt’s tourism industry. The climate adaptive development of Egypt’s Electricity: 91.3 MtCO2e (2019) 32% 31% 15% %22 Supported by UNDP, the program addresses waste tourism sector focuses on three strategic Accommodation Sector: 1.5%(e) 32% Electricity/heat of total sector emissions* Transport Residential Tourism Other management challenges and adopting low-carbon pillars: Livelihood, Territorial Development, 1.4 MtCO2 (2016) building technologies, the initiative lays the groundwork for and Climate Change. This approach outlines 16% Transport a comprehensive sustainable development strategy six general goals aimed at distributing tourism Transport: 55.3 MtCO2e (2019) Red Sea Governorate Air Transport: 5.2%(e) of total for this key tourist destination. benefits more equitably within local commu- 11% Manufacturing/construction sector emissions* 39% 28% 17% %16 nities, reducing the environmental impact of 10% Other 2.9 MtCO2 (2019) The Egyptian Sustainable Tourism Portal of- tourism, increasing the sector’s resilience to 9% Industrial processes Transport Tourism Residential Other fers a digital platform to promote eco-friendly building climate change, and protecting natural and 9% Agriculture practices within Egypt’s accommodation cultural sites. The goals also emphasize the 8% Waste sector. It offers a variety of resources, including • Transport and energy consumption are the most polluting activities of Egypt`s tourism sector. transition towards sustainable tourism practices 5% Building factsheets, pre-feasibility templates, and tools Thus, adaptation and mitigation measures must be linked to these areas. and the integration of these practices into the • Air transport represents 5.2 of national emissions. In 2019, 87 percent of tourists arrived by plane. for calculating hotel’s solid waste management, national tourism agenda, with a particular focus • Tourism (specially accommodation) represents 1.5 percent of national electricity emissions. It is the pool temperature regulation, piping insulation, on alternative destinations better suited to new 2nd GHG emitter of the Red Sea Governorate, and the 3rd one in the Luxor Governorate. and garden lighting efficiency. These tools are climate realities (see Table 5). designed to help hotels achieve significant Figure 15: GHG emitting sectors at national and destination levels. 39 40 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco Table 5: Pillars, recommendations, and specific activities (Egypt) Pillar 1: Livelihoods R4. Diversification of tourism product and promotion Specific 1. Promote a diverse portfolio of events and experiences that align with Egypt’s favorable R1. Creation and consolidation of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) Activities weather conditions; these offerings include medical tourism, ecotourism in conservation Specific 1. Design financial incentives (tax, loans, tax breaks) for MSMEs engaging in sustainable areas, Nile cruises, desert safaris, and religious or spiritual tourism. Activities practices (waste management, energy efficiency, preservation, women’s integration). 2. Design financial incentives and policy frameworks to foster locally owned, high-quality, and 2. Promote sustainable certifications (for example, Green Star Hotel) and/or standards, sustainable tourism projects (for example, accommodation, food and beverage, activities) in including national/regional awards to highlight MSMEs committed to sustainable operations. less conventional destinations not heavily reliant on climate-sensitive activities (for example, 3. Develop clear sustainability guidelines and best practices for SMEs, including environmental Western Desert, Oasis, Southern Red Sea Area). conservation and community engagement, via workshops and outreach. 3. Enhance air travel accessibility during cooler months to deseasonalize tourism, particularly 4. Formalize tour operators working in nature-based and adventure tourism to ensure quality, in areas with significant accommodation capacity (for example, Hurghada, Marsa Alam) via sustainability, and safety. reduced airport taxes and fees during off-peak periods. 5. Develop an Entrepreneurship Program for ecotourism and rural tourism, providing 4. Launch awareness campaigns and establish awards (for example, Green Star Hotel microcredits and mentoring to establish local MSMEs. certification) to promote sustainable tourism practices among destinations and businesses. R2. Strengthening of human capital 5. Educate visitors on sustainable practices and the importance of minimizing their environmental footprint during their stay. Specific 1. Implement targeted capacity-building programs with workshops and training on the latest Activities tourism trends and practices. Pillar 3: Climate Change Impacts on Value Chain 2. Develop a program to encourage women’s participation in tourism, providing personalizing R5. Transition to effective water management training, enhanced marketing visibility and access to financing, and support networks. Specific 1. Create detailed country-specific regulations/standards to promote the efficient use of water 3. Foster partnerships between educational institutions and the tourism industry to offer Activities in large-scale accommodations. courses and degrees in sustainable tourism and climate adaptation. 2. Launch programs supporting water-saving technologies, like wastewater recycling and 4. Launch awareness campaigns to educate SMEs, professionals, and tourists on sustainable rainwater harvesting. practices and environmental impact reduction (for example, in water and energy use, waste management). 3. Restrict new licenses for water-intensive facilities in high-risk areas, until occupancy levels are minimal for profitability. Pillar 2: Territorial Development 4. Develop a pilot project to monitor water consumption through digitized meters in R3. Improvement of private and public tourism-related infrastructure accommodations across key tourist areas (Luxor, Hurghada, Cairo). R6. Promote green urbanism in destinations Foster public-private partnerships by encouraging joint investments that prioritize sustainability, align with local needs, and implement assessments for optimization, Specific 1. Implement standards and bioclimatic measures for new tourism constructions. conservation, and economic diversification. Activities 2. Use tax and funding incentives to encourage the development of accommodations aligned Specific 1. Finance renewable energy installations in tourist businesses to reduce carbon footprints. with Egypt’s traditional architecture and adapted to local climate conditions while limiting Activities new licenses for new resorts. 2. Improve basic water and sanitation infrastructure in coastal and rural areas with sustainable systems. 3. Offer financial support, expert advice, and tax incentives to rehabilitate tourism infrastructure and heritage buildings according to green architecture principles. 3. Support studies to calculate carrying capacity and to identify the limits of acceptable changes in protected natural and cultural sites. 4. Implement comprehensive waste management systems following circular economy principles in high-demand tourist areas such as Alexandria, Aswan, Luxor, Hurghada, etc. 41 42 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco Table 5 (continued): Pillars, recommendations, and specific activities (Egypt) R7. Protect coastal/river resources Annex 3 | Lebanon Country Brief Specific 1. Evaluate and determine potential environmental policy measures for climate resilience in Activities coastal destinations, including limitations to coastal and beach infrastructure development, marine protected areas, guidelines/limitations for water sports. Lebanon has historically been rich for its The tourism sector in Lebanon is vulnerable 2. Implement nature-based protection strategies to protect beaches and coral reefs from cultural and natural resources. Drawn to its to various shocks. The sector in Lebanon climate impacts and recreational facilities from sea level rise in North Egypt and Red Sea. historical sites, vibrant cities, Mediterranean is affected by multiple crises shaped by the 3. Enforce stricter environmental standards for river cruises to protect the Nile’s ecosystem/ coastline, and natural ecotourism opportunities, economic downturn, currency devaluation, water quality. Lebanon attracts tourists annually during COVID-19 pandemic, Port of Beirut explosion, 4. Outline climate change adaptation strategies for Egypt’s port network, while also integrating both winter and summer seasons. Prior to the political unrest, and the on-going refugee sustainable energy solutions for the port’s operations. Covid-19 pandemic, Lebanon peaked at 1.9 crisis. The complex situation of the country has 5. Develop plans for beach protection and restoration against sea-level rise. million visitors, with the Lebanese diaspora impacted its tourism sector over the past years, 6. Update heritage management plans to address increased humidity, extreme weather, representing approximately 50 percent of total showing a reduction of 25 percent less visitors groundwater level changes on Egypt’s water-linked monuments and archaeological sites. foreign visits to Lebanon. from 2018 to 2022. R8. Reducing GHG emissions in the tourism industry Tourism in Lebanon is a vital economic con- Climate change impacts add to the vulnerabil- Specific 1. Evaluate the feasibility of a carbon tax to encourage tourism operators to reduce emissions. tributor. The sector accounted for 19.1 percent ity and risk of the tourism sector in Lebanon. Activities 2. Promote the Green Star Hotel certification across accommodation services, through financial of national GDP in 2019, which translates into The Climate Change Risk Index shows a non- incentives, focusing on renewable energy and water efficiency. an estimated US$47.5 billion. It also accounts stop growth for Lebanon, with a consistently 3. Promote sustainable transportation alternatives by 1) Doubling train and bus frequencies for 18.4 percent of total employment labor force, higher risk in Byblos; this would negatively among major cities, 2) Enhancing intermodal stations for easier travel and local mobility, with 6.7 percent as direct tourism sector employ- impact the number of tourist arrivals. Further, including bicycle and tramway options and 3) Accelerating the electrification of trains and ees in 2018. The cultural and creative sectors the IPCC projects that tourism would face a buses. also represent 5 percent of the GDP and 4.5 mid to high impact of climate change, with a 4. Promote the adoption of circular economy practices in hotels, focusing on energy and water percent of overall employment. The latest data potential 28 percent decrease in tourist arrivals savings, waste reduction, and local sourcing. for 2019 reveals that there are 4,470 tourism-re- post 2040 under a high climate change impact lated establishments, including accommodation scenario (see Figure 16). (584), food and beverage serving activities (3,336), and travel agencies (550). 46 percent of Lebanon Byblos Anjar Zahleh Bsharri 0.64 accommodation facilities are located in Beirut, 0.65 and 29 percent are in other coastal areas. 0.60 0.58 0.57 The tourism sector in Lebanon holds critical 0.54 0.55 0.54 0.56 0.55 interlinkages with food and agriculture, which 0.52 0.51 0.53 makes it a socioeconomic safety component, 0.50 0.48 0.53 0.48 0.51 primarily for rural areas. Local production of 0.45 0.50 0.45 food and agriculture, often cultivated in rural 0.45 0.43 0.41 0.41 Max.=1.0; Min.=0.0 areas, are showcased across various tourist des- 0.40 tinations and hotspots, hence promoting their 2023 2020-39 2040-59 2060-79 2080-99 value and appeal. Further, due to its reliance on water resources such as beaches and rivers Figure 16: Climate change risk index (Lebanon). for recreational activities, tourism drives invest- Source: Calculated as a weighted average of the ments in water infrastructure and management. variables that define Exposures, Hazards and It also bolsters sustainable ecotourism, which Vulnerabilities affecting tourism in Lebanon currently strongly advocates for water resource protection and in the future years. Results have been normalized and responsible farming practices, supporting (between 0, minimum and 1, maximum). the sustainability of both sectors. 43 44 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco up to 1.1 meters by 2100.This expected sea-level Rising temperature, sea-level rise, and water Valley. Ski resorts and entire small villages rise could result in salinization of aquifers, RURAL ECOTOURISM/FORESTS stress are geographic features to the foreseen that economically depend on the winter sports increased coastal flooding, and the erosion of Rural ecotourism is a significant facet of impact of climate change on Tourism in Lebanon. season will also be affected due to a decrease in valuable coastal ecosystems and archaeological Lebanon’s tourism offerings. Lebanon Moun- snow cover, projected to decrease by 40 percent sites. This puts Lebanon’s coast, its urban tain Trail offers a scenic 440 kilometers pathway Rising temperatures transform the nation’s by 2050. population, sandy beaches, nature reserve, and traversing the country’s diverse landscapes from mild-weather appeal into a hotter, less agricultural land, at a heightened risk in addition north to south. Additionally, Lebanon’s rural and inviting climate. The country’s main attractions, The impact of climate change on tourism in to potential economic repercussions. Particularly, inland areas have a strong tradition of attracting including forests, coastlines, and winter sports, Lebanon is structurally visible across the the UNESCO World Heritage site of Tyre has tourists, with 20 percent visiting iconic natural are highly weather dependent. Forecasts sug- configuration of its three main segment been identified as high risk due to its coastal sites such as the Cedar forests and renowned gest a hotter and drier future for Lebanon, with destinations: Summer/Coastal Tourism, Win- location and geological characteristics. grottos like Jeita and Qadisha. an expected increase of 4.3°C by the end of the ter Tourism, and Rural and Ecotourism. century. This would reduce the attractiveness Lebanon’s forests, covering 23 percent of its of mild-weather vacations around coastal and WINTER TOURISM mountainous destinations (USAID, 2016). SUMMER/COASTAL TOURISM territory, and valued at 587 US$ per hectare, Lebanon’s winter tourism, a key revenue gen- are pivotal assets to its rural and ecotourism. Lebanon’s summer tourism is driven by its These forests offer unique ecological experi- The anticipated rise in sea levels poses erator with $43.7 million in 2017, is threatened strategic location and Mediterranean climate. ences through rich biodiversity, contributing 1.11 a significant threat to Lebanon’s coastal by shifting seasonality and decreasing snow The coast of Lebanon holds 19 percent of natural percent to the world’s plant species with 2,600 tourism. Sea level rise is projected to increase cover. This sector is renowned for its unique areas, and most of the cultural/archaeological varieties, including significant endemic species. by a total of 30 to 60 centimeter in 2040 (USAID, winter sports and ski offering across the Arab heritage sites (Tripoli, Byblos, Beirut, Saida, Tyre, Lebanese forests surpass other Mediterranean 2016) and would leave a damaging impact on world. This is attributed to its expansive 2585 etc.) and main urban destinations. Lebanon countries in ecosystem service value, with an the coastal infrastructure, mainly on sandy square kilometer of mountainous terrain and an features 15 public beaches (pebble, sandy, exceptionally high species/area ratio (0.25 beaches, coastal nature reserve such as palm average season lasting 106 days that support rocky) and 68 beach resorts that attract 45,240 species/square kilometer), compared with other island or Tyre nature reserves, and other coastal six major resorts that operate from December global visitors annually during peak seasons. Mediterranean climate type countries (MoE/ historic sites This would also cause economic through April annually. By 2050, the snow cover The sector also thrives on the country’s unique UNEP/GEF, 2015). Forests provide essential losses related to marine activities, fisheries, and is projected to decrease by 40 percent (70 climate and marine ecological diversity, includ- services such as soil erosion control and water other essential services. percent under a 4°C warming scenario), snow ing endemic plant species and varied fauna. purification, which emphasizes the need for nat- residence time from 110 days to 45 days and Reduced rainfall is expected to intensify ural resource conservation. They also underline Climate change jeopardizes summer tourism the snow line is also projected to shift from an water scarcity, adversely affecting Lebanon’s the national identity of Lebanon (cedar tree), its in Lebanon through risks of higher tempera- elevation of 1500 to 1700 meters (USAID, 2016). tourism sector. Under a high emissions scenar- traditional agriculture heritage (pine and carob) tures, and more frequent extreme weather io, the total annual precipitation is expected to The ongoing reduction in Lebanon’s snow cov- and more recently livelihood diversification events. Predictions under the RCP4.5 scenario decrease by 25 percent on average, indicating er is expected to significantly reduce economic through nature-based tourism, agritourism and indicate an increase in the number of hot days an increase in the frequency and/or intensity of output due to a shorter skiing season. In 2023, rural tourism. (above 35°C) from an additional 6.98 days by dry episodes and drought events. This reduction the ski slopes were only opened mid-February 2030 to 10.61 days by 2050, compared to the Lebanon’s ecotourism, reliant on its vital in precipitation levels will negatively impact (L’Orient Today 2023), which markedly affected 2006 baseline of 14 hot days. With Lebanon’s forests for biodiversity, ecosystem services, water supply for the tourism sector, particularly the season’s economic sustainability. Ski resorts tourism being crucially reliant on favorable and cultural value, faces significant risks from from April to June, mainly in the Bekaa, Hermel, and entire small villages that economically de- weather, climate change is poised to diminish climate change. Forests, capable of seques- and the southern regions. The situation of lower pend on the winter sports season will be affected. outdoor tourist activities, especially in the hotter tering 1.9 million tons of CO2e annually, are water availability is likely to induce significant For example, the ski region of Mzaar Kfardebian, summer months. increasingly compromised by climate-induced losses to the tourism sector, up to several home to the largest ski resort in the region, hundred million per year (World Bank, 2024). reported losses of up to US$20 million in 2010 challenges such as heightened fragmentation, The projected rise in sea levels is anticipated Reduced rainfall will also impact the quality of due to unseasonably warm temperatures. The reduced regenerative capacity, and escalated to severely impact Lebanon’s coastline assets. wines and winery tourism potential in Lebanon decrease in skiing opportunities leads to a loss of forest fires, all exacerbated by unsustainable IPCC estimates that sea-level increase could (USAID, 2016), mainly in the southern Beqaa between US$200 million and US$500 million/a in practices. The resulting degradation not only reach up to 0.33 meters by 2050 and potentially tourist spending. undermines their carbon storage capacity but 45 46 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco also their role in offering recreational, education- Initiatives like the National Rural Tourism Strategy Lebanon is actively enhancing its climate al, and cultural experiences vital for ecotourism. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION and the Sustainable Mountain Tourism Strategy resilience through strategic planning and The anticipated shifts towards warmer, drier The tourism sector is directly linked to focus on exploiting rural and mountainous areas partnerships. Clima-Med’s collaboration with conditions are likely to increase pest outbreaks notable greenhouse gas emissions due to its to boost local economies and reduce tourism’s Lebanese municipalities to craft Sustainable and fire incidences, further threatening forest dependence on transport, food and beverage, seasonal impact. The Al Shouf Biosphere Reserve, Energy Access and Climate Action Plans health and biodiversity. Such ecological dis- and lodging activities. The total greenhouse gas Lebanon’s largest nature reserve, exemplifies (SEACAPs) illustrates proactive climate change ruptions are projected to diminish Lebanon’s emissions in Lebanon reached around 30 MtCO2 this approach by implementing an environmental adaptation planning. Municipalities such as appeal as an ecotourism destination, potentially in 2019, with road transport accounting for 25 program that enhances local tourism providers’ Batloun within the Chouf Biosphere Reserve and decreasing tourism demand by 1.4 percent by percent and air transport for 3 percent, alongside practices in energy and water management. Beirut, the capital city, are developing climate 2050, as the unique natural landscapes and the significant contributions from waste management action frameworks to achieve sustainable energy biodiversity become increasingly vulnerable to Lebanon has promoted coastal conservation and climate mitigation goals by 2030, setting a and energy production. Initiatives to improve projects. Through the Tyre Coast Nature Reserve climate change impacts. public transport services are critical in reducing precedent for climate-smart urban development. project, Lebanon has been working on monitor- road transport emissions, especially given that ing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE air pollution in Lebanon’s urban zones are among by leveraging local ecological knowledge, KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CLIMATE the highest at (32ug/meter) (see Figure 17). ECONOMY which guides the tracking and early detection CHANGE ADAPTATION IN LEBANON’S of climate-sensitive species. The reserve also The impact of climate change on Lebanon’s Lebanon’s strategic response in its Fourth Nation- TOURISM SECTOR al Communication Report encompasses a series protects key endangered species across the tourism sector poses a substantial threat to Mediterranean such as sea-turtles. Efforts in Reorienting the tourism development strategy of adaptation measures to enhance resilience, the national economy, particularly given the heritage protection have also been bolstered in Lebanon to a climate resilient model requires particularly in coastal regions. These measures sector’s significant contribution to employment through initiatives like the Documentation and aligning key recommendation strategies with range from financial incentives for sustainable and GDP. Climate-related challenges like Conservation of Lebanon’s Coastal Castles project, three main pillars of action: Livelihood, Territorial tourism investments to the development of increased heatwaves and diminishing snow supported by the British Council’s Cultural Development, and Climate Change (see Table 6). emergency response plans and improvements in cover are poised to cause an economic shortfall Protection Fund, focusing on preserving coastal energy and water efficiency. Despite this progress, of US$500.6 million in tourist spending and heritage at risk from climate-induced erosion. the fragmented nature of the tourism ecosystem catalyze a 13 percent employment decrease in and weak governance pose challenges to the accommodation and food service sectors. effective implementation. This is also noted This job shrinkage is expected to ripple through with lack of coordination and comprehensive the economy, affecting related sectors with a 2.6 Table 6: Pillars, recommendations, and specific activities (Lebanon). data. Meanwhile, the private sector is gradually percent loss in agriculture, forestry, and fishing; adopting climate-sensitive practices, focusing Pillar 1: Livelihoods a 1.8 percent reduction in transportation and on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, storage; a 1.6 percent decline in manufacturing; R1. Creation and Consolidation of SMEs with energy and water management being the and a 1 percent decrease in the wholesale and primary areas of action. Lebanon has pursued Establish and consolidate tourism MSMEs to diversify the economy, reduce reliance on retail trade. This illustrates the broad economic diversification through nature-based tourism traditional industries, generate employment, and promote inclusive growth and regional implications of climate impacts on Lebanon’s development. despite the absence of a targeted sustainable tourism-dependent economy. tourism strategy that addresses climate change. Specific 5. Design financial incentives (tax, loans, tax breaks) for MSMEs engaging in sustainable Activities practices (waste management, energy efficiency, preservation, women’s integration). 6. Promote sustainable certifications (for example, Green Star Hotel) and/or standards, including national/regional awards to highlight MSMEs committed to sustainable operations. 7. Develop clear sustainability guidelines and best practices for SMEs, including environmental conservation and community engagement, via workshops and outreach. Energy Industrial Processes Waste 8. Formalize tour operators working in nature-based and adventure tourism to ensure quality, 20.84 MtCO2e 4.1 MtCO2e 3.22 MtCO2e sustainability, and safety. 71.99% 14.16% 11.13% 9. Develop an Entrepreneurship Program for ecotourism and rural tourism, providing Figure 17: Climate change adaptation (Lebanon). microcredits and mentoring to establish local MSMEs. 47 48 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco Table 6 (continued): Pillars, recommendations, and specific activities (Lebanon). Pillar 3: Climate change impacts on the value chain R2. Strengthening of human capital R5. Moving towards efficient water management Prioritize investment in education, training, and professional development for tourism Prioritize efficient water consumption within Lebanon’s tourism sector to mitigate the impact professionals to drive sustainable growth, service excellence, and enhance the sector’s of diminishing water availability and quality, reducing demand and costs through innovative competitiveness and broader ecosystem contribution. conservation strategies amidst challenges in sourcing water. Specific 1. Foster partnerships between educational institutions and the tourism industry to offer Specific 1. Establish country-specific water use regulations for accommodation and F&B sectors. Activities courses and degrees in sustainable tourism and climate adaptation. Activities 2. Launch a program with incentives and training for water-efficient technologies. 2. Launch awareness campaigns to educate SMEs, professionals, and tourists on sustainable 3. Limit new licenses for water-intensive hotels in vulnerable coastal areas. practices and environmental impact reduction (for example, in water and energy use, waste 4. Support certifications for responsible natural resource use. management). 5. Improve water availability through municipal system upgrades. 3. Offer targeted capacity-building programs with workshops and training on the latest tourism trends and practices. R6. Promote green urbanism in destinations 4. Develop a program to encourage women’s participation in tourism, providing personalizing Implement green urbanism in Lebanon’s cities to enhance sustainability, resilience against training, enhanced marketing visibility and access to financing, and support networks. climate impacts, and improve the quality of life for both residents and tourists through sustainable urban spaces. Pillar 2: Territorial Development Specific 1. Enforce national regulations for bioclimatic measures in new tourist infrastructure designs, R3. Improvement of private and public tourism-related infrastructure Activities promoting thermal comfort and resource efficiency. 2. Enhance urban greening in cities with nature-based solutions for cooling effects, including Foster public-private partnerships by encouraging joint investments that prioritize tree planting, park development, green shading in open air tourist attractions, and reduced sustainability, align with local needs, and implement assessments for optimization, artificial surfaces. conservation, and economic diversification. 3. Implement a rehabilitation program for tourism infrastructure and heritage buildings through Specific 1. Support studies to calculate carrying capacity in protected natural and cultural sites to identify financing, advice, and tax incentives, and according to green architecture standards. Activities the acceptable threshold of changes. R7. Protect tourism coastal resources 2. Finance renewable energy installations in tourist businesses to reduce carbon footprints. Strengthen Lebanon’s coastal tourism resilience through infrastructure enhancements to protect 3. Enhance water and sanitation infrastructure efficiency in coastal and rural areas with against rising sea levels and safeguard beaches, marinas, resorts, and cultural and natural sustainable systems. heritage from flooding and erosion. 4. Implement comprehensive waste management systems following circular economy principles Specific 4. Implement a comprehensive plan for protecting and restoring beaches, marinas, and beach in high-tourist activity areas (for example Byblos or Beirut) or challenging areas (Chouf, Anjar). Activities resorts against sea-level rise and erosion. R4. Diversification of tourism product and promotion 5. Revise, update, and finance management plans for inland heritage sites affected by climate Adjust tourism strategies to accommodate climate change impacts, diversify with alternative change-induced impacts. tourism products, optimize seasonal travel, and ensure resilience through effective territorial 6. Support coastal nature reserves with monitoring systems for climate change impacts and planning, product development, and promotion. adaptation measures. Specific 1. Encourage sustainable touristic products such as ecotourism and rural tourism, promoting 7. Implement and emphasize the Integrated Coastal Zone Management strategy to address Activities destinations and tourist sites with greater thermal comfort for visitors (for example cedar climate change impacts comprehensively. forests, grottos, wineries, etc.), focusing on areas beyond Beirut. 8. Strengthen enforcement of coastal zone management laws, including those against illegal 2. Offer financial incentives for developing alternative urban tourism products independent of construction and sand extraction. climate factors, requiring entities to meet sustainable criteria. R8. Reducing GHG emissions in the tourism industry 3. Expand mountain tourism beyond skiing by focusing on sustainable tourism products for Specific 9. Support the development and execution of Sustainable Energy Action Plans SEACAPs in example Cultural tourism, Agritourism and wine tourism, etc. Activities tourist destinations to specify actions for reducing tourism-related GHG emissions. 4. Develop a portfolio of international events and experiences to boost warm-month tourism, in 10. Improve intermodal and public connections to reduce private vehicle use across alternative collaboration with national associations, targeting diverse audiences including the Lebanese destinations (Byblos, Tyre, etc.), strengthen bus routes and enhanced intermodal stations for diaspora. easy visitor access, promote electrification of land transport and explore the revival of coastal 5. Strengthen Lebanon’s brand and promotion of sustainable and alternative tourism products, and mountain railways. encouraging local travel agencies to offer comprehensive packages for inbound tourists. 11. Develop financial incentives for creating urban and tourist-friendly itineraries that promote soft transport modes like walking and cycling. 12. Encourage alliances between the tourism sector and local suppliers to procure local products, supporting the local economy and reducing transportation-related emissions. 49 50 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco by the end of the century, compared to the is substantial. Coastal erosion is occurring 1995-2014 period. These temperature increases, at an average rate of 0.14 centimeter on the Annex 4 | Morocco Country Brief more pronounced in Morocco’s interior regions Mediterranean side and 0.12 centimeter on the than its coastal areas, will likely impact tourist Atlantic, leading to potential infrastructure losses comfort and consumption patterns. Tourists may amounting to 0.2 percent of Morocco’s GDP. Tourism is an indispensable sector in opt for travel during cooler seasons or seek ac- Specifically, beach erosion in the Tetouan area Lebanon Marrakesh Agadir Morocco’s economy. Particularly in urban 0.59 commodations and destinations offering better could lead to significant economic repercussions, 0.60 locales, tourism marks substantial contributions 0.56 thermal comfort, potentially affecting traditional with an estimated annual loss of US$71.5 million. to the national income and job market. In 2022, 0.55 tourism flows due to significant increases in 0.51 0.52 mean annual temperatures. Morocco’s cultural tourism hubs— tourism accounted for 6.4 percent of Morocco’s 0.50 0.50 0.49 0.48 predominantly Marrakesh, Fes, Rabat, and GDP and 11.2 percent of total jobs (WTTC, 2023). 0.47 0.46 Projected decreases in precipitation by 6 to Meknes—are at the forefront of climate Tourism revenues accounted for US$8.8 billion 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.43 0.43 18 percent by 2050 and 8 to 38 percent by change impact. As UNESCO reports, the as the country received 11 million visitors with a 0.41 2100 signal a future where water resources in Medina of Essaouira is experiencing significant significant share from Europe. 0.40 0.38 Max.=1.0; Min.=0.0 Morocco will become increasingly strained. damage due to coastal erosion, and cities like Despite its strategic objectives, Morocco’s 0.35 This will push the country closer to the absolute Meknes and Fez are increasingly vulnerable 2023 2020-39 2040-59 2060-79 2080-99 tourism sector faces several challenges. Mo- water scarcity threshold of 500 cubic metre per to extreme weather and drought, directly rocco’s Tourism Strategy for 2030 aims to enhance Figure 18: Climate change risk index (Morocco). person per year. This level of water scarcity will threatening their vibrant tourism industries. Morocco’s touristic appeal, targeting increased challenge the sustainability of accommodations, Source: Calculated as a weighted average of the food, and beverage establishments, particularly international arrivals, higher tourist expenditure, variables that define Exposures, Hazards and in urban areas with high tourist and local popu- IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE and substantial foreign direct investment, in align- ment with broader sustainable development goals. Vulnerabilities affecting tourism in Morocco currently and in the future years. Results have been normalized lations. This hence necessitates innovative water ECONOMY However, the sector is impeded by workforce (between 0, minimum and 1, maximum). management solutions to ensure the viability of Climate change in Morocco is projected to skill gaps, complex regulatory environments, and the tourism sector. reduce tourist visits by 8 to 20 percent, driven inadequate infrastructure, which hinder tourist Trend if NO climate change impact Mid climate change impact scenario by hotter temperatures and an increased With 42 percent of the Moroccan coastline at mobility and sustainability efforts. To alleviate High climate change impact scenario risk of wildfires, which could discourage high risk of erosion and floods by 2030, the seasonal changes, Morocco needs to further 40.000.000 the tourist influx. The spending pattern of impacts of sea-level rise are a critical concern diversify its sector and tap into new segments like tourists, which largely favors accommodation 30.000.000 -19% for Morocco’s tourism industry. The estimated eco-tourism and cultural tourism. and food services, followed by transportation cost of asset destruction due to coastal erosion Morocco’s tourism, heavily concentrated 20.000.000 is equivalent to 0.2 percent of Morocco’s GDP, and the purchase of touristic goods like along its coastlines and in Marrakesh, faces posing significant risks to coastal infrastructure, souvenirs, means that the economic impact will 10.000.000 different impacts per destination due to including resorts, beaches, and heritage sites. reverberate through these sectors. Consequently, climate change. The Climate Change Risk Index 0 employment is expected to decline, mirroring 2020 2030 2040 2050 Morocco presents a significant concentration the labor intensity of the affected sectors, reveals a concerning trend for Morocco at 0.43, of its tourist activity in two destinations- and exacerbating the economic fallout from with projections showing a rising vulnerability to Figure 19: Forecasted tourism arrivals to Morocco. Agadir and Marrakech, and two demand climate-induced shifts in tourism. climate change impacts across key destinations segments, i) coastal tourism (47 percent of like Marrakesh and Agadir over time. IPCC Source: Own estimates based on IPCC scenarios. Job losses in Morocco from climate change accommodations) and ii) cultural/interior (45 scenarios forecast 19 percent less arrivals after will be unevenly distributed across economic Morocco’s geographical disposition, prox- percent of accommodation). 2040 under high impact scenarios. This causes sectors, with the accommodation and food imate to the Sahara Desert and with an a shift in demand towards destinations having The tourism industry along Morocco’s coasts, services sector being mostly impacted. expansive coastline, exacerbates its tourism more stable climatic evolution. Main drivers for particularly in Agadir Ida Outanane, is under Transport and entertainment will also sustain sector’s susceptibility to climate change. climatic hazards in Morocco include sea level immediate threat from climate change. With a significant losses, while sectors like agriculture rise in Agadir and most coastal areas, water Temperature is expected to rise by 1.32 to projected 42 percent of the coastline facing high and trade experience indirect effects through scarcity, temperature and comfort levels (see 2.23ºC by mid-century and 1.35 to 5.85ºC erosion and flood risks by 2030, the threat to both the value chain. While relative losses in trade Figure 18 and 19). natural landscapes and tourism infrastructure and manufacturing may be modest, they 51 52 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco can be particularly damaging for very small transition faces disconnect between national Morocco has developed regulatory guides and framework with quantifiable objectives to be businesses that make up a considerable policy formation and local execution, exacerbated recommendations to promote the implemen- reached by 2030. Some Moroccan destinations, portion of Morocco’s micro-enterprises, by centralized decision-making and insufficient tation of energy-saving measures, particularly such as Tangier or Chefchaouen, have already which are vulnerable due to limited access to inter-institutional cooperation. within the hotel industry. The guide contains prepared their own SEACAP. finance and resilience-building resources. For solutions to reduce the energy costs of their instance, handicraft vendors and small-scale Morocco has intensified efforts to mitigate establishments, mainly in the following aspects: tourism-related enterprises, constituting and adapt to climate change impacts through building envelope, lighting, heating, ventilation, KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CLIMATE over 23 thousand MSMEs in the food and comprehensive policies and targeted strat- and air conditioning; hot water; motors and CHANGE ADAPTATION IN MOROCCO`S egies, addressing various sectors including accommodation sector alone, are at risk of drives; energy management and monitoring tools; TOURISM SECTOR shutting down with losses up to 20 percent. tourism. Initiatives like Plan Maroc Vert, the and renewable energy installations. Additionally, over 45 thousand MSMEs in National Plan Against Global Warming, and The transition to a more sustainable and warehousing and transport, including taxi the transformation of the Moroccan Solar Plan Morocco’s adoption of the SEACAP through climate-smart tourism model requires services and gig workers, are likely to suffer into the National Energy Strategy highlight Clima-Med collaboration supports municipal- Morocco to realign its tourism development from the decrease in tourist-driven demand. this multifaceted approach. The inclusion of ities in identifying and implementing climate strategy to pillars of livelihoods and territorial the tourism sector in the Moroccan Climate action strategies. The SEACAP is a strategic development while advancing its value chain Change Policy underscores its significance in planning document and operational tool that to the impacts of climate change (see Table 7). STATE OF ADAPTATION the nation’s adaptation strategy. Complementing helps municipalities define a climate action these efforts, Morocco’s Intended Nationally Morocco’s tourism sector accounts for 5.2 Determined Contribution (INDC) to the United percent of the nation’s total GHG emissions. Nations Framework Convention on Climate Table 7: Pillars, recommendations, and specific activities (Morocco). Significant environmental challenges stem from Change (UNFCCC), aiming for a 17 percent transport, on-site activities, and lodging, which Pillar 1: Livelihoods reduction in GHG emissions by 2030, showcases are responsible for 57, 33, and 23 percent of its the country’s dedication to global climate goals. R1. Creation and consolidation of SMEs emissions, respectively. The sector is heavily reli- ant on air travel coupled with energy-intensive Efforts to green tourism services and Specific 13. Develop clear sustainability guidelines and best practices for SMEs in tourism, including accommodation practices. Traditional accom- infrastructure are evident in the launch Activities environmental conservation and community engagement, via workshops and outreach. modations like riads are prevalent in cultural of Go Siyaha, a program designed to bolster 14. Formalize tour operators working in nature-based and adventure tourism to ensure quality, destinations (91 percent) and offer a lower sustainable tourism ventures and encourage sustainability, and safety. environmental impact due to their energy-effi- eco-friendly practices among SMEs. This 15. Develop an Entrepreneurship Program for ecotourism and rural tourism, providing cient design. However, energy-intensive hotels initiative is complemented by the Moroccan microcredits and mentoring to establish local MSMEs. remain balanced and emissions from cultural Sustainable Tourism Awards, recognizing and 16. Design financial incentives (tax, loans, tax breaks) for MSMEs engaging in sustainable activities and handicraft purchases remain high promoting sustainability efforts within the practices (waste management, energy efficiency, preservation, women’s integration). due to the dependency on road transport (see industry which could access an investment 17. Strengthen the adoption of certifications and incentives to promote sustainable tourism Figure 9). bonus of 40 percent for projects of less than 10 practices; enhance visibility and continuation of efforts like the Clé Verte certification and million dirhams. national awards for sustainable tourism enterprises, particularly supporting MSMEs Morocco’s commitment to climate change R2. Strengthening of human capital adaptation in tourism is ambitious, yet imple- Addressing coastal and marine ecosystem Specific 1. Launch capacity-building programs for tourism workers on current trends and practices. mentation challenges persist. The nation has protection, Morocco initiated the Integrated Activities 2. Initiate a program to integrate women into the tourism sector with tailored advice and laid out comprehensive policies, such as the Plan Coastal Zone Management Project with training in business management, leadership, financing, networking, and marketing. Maroc Vert and the Moroccan Climate Change support from the World Bank, focusing on Policy and set a notable goal within its Nationally 3. Conduct awareness campaigns to educate SMEs, tourism professionals, and tourists on sustainable coastal and marine resource sustainable practices and the importance of minimizing tourism’s environmental impact. Determined Contribution to reduce GHG emis- management. This project has already seen sions by 17 percent by 2030. A particular focus success in integrating sustainable practices into 4. Establish partnerships between educational institutions and the tourism industry to offer courses and degrees in sustainable tourism management and climate change adaptation. on creating a climate-friendly accommodation local development plans and restoring crucial sector underscores the proactive steps toward ecosystems. sustainability. Despite these initiatives, the 53 54 Transitioning Towards Sustainable and Climate-smart Tourism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA): Recommendations for the Tourism Sectors in Egypt, Lebanon, and Morocco Table 7 (continued): Pillars, recommendations, and specific activities (Morocco). R6. Promote green architecture in tourism Specific 1. Ensure the implementation of national regulations/standards with a minimum set of Pillar 2: Territorial Development Activities bioclimatic measures in the construction of new tourism infrastructure according to the climatic regions and architectural tradition of Morocco. R3. Improvement of private and public tourism-related infrastructure 2. Encourage tax incentives and funding for the creation of accommodations aligned with Specific 1. Implement comprehensive waste management systems following circular economy traditional architecture (Riads, Kasbahs, etc.) and local climatic conditions, while limiting Activities principles in high-tourist activity areas (such as Marrakesh and Agadir) and/or areas with opening licenses for new large hotels. greater challenges in waste management (Atlas Mountains, Merzouga, etc.). 3. Encourage tax incentives and funding for the rehabilitation and operation of existing tourism 2. Support studies to calculate carrying capacity in protected natural and sensitive cultural sites infrastructure under green architecture standards. to identify the acceptable threshold of changes. R7. Protect coastal tourism 3. Finance renewable energy installations in tourist businesses to reduce carbon footprints. Specific 1. Continue developing Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plans for vulnerable coastal 4. Enhance water and sanitation infrastructure efficiency in coastal and rural areas. Activities regions (for example, Tangiers-Tetouan-Al-Hoceima), incorporating growth limits and R4. Diversification of tourism product and promotion development regulations. Adjust tourism strategies to accommodate climate change impacts, diversify with alternative 2. Develop a plan that defines climate change adaptation measures for ports (like Tangier) and tourism products, optimize seasonal travel, and ensure resilience through effective territorial tourism infrastructure, while also addressing challenges of sea level rise, increased wave size, planning, product development, and promotion. and coastal erosion. Specific 1. Create a portfolio of international events and experiences focused on emerging tourism 3. Update heritage management plans for main Moroccan sites to mitigate climate change Activities products like ecotourism, wellness, and adventure tourism to boost off-season demand and impacts, such as sea level rise and temperature increases affecting visitor comfort. Include alleviate coastal pressure. financing for maintenance and adaptation of historical sites for tourism. 2. Focus on developing alternative destinations with milder climates and niches such as 4. Define and execute essential actions for nature-based coastal protection (for example, ecotourism, rural tourism, and adventure tourism, specifically in areas like Oases and reforestation, dune restoration) to combat erosion, along with establishing monitoring National Parks. systems to track coastline changes. 3. Expand off-season air travel by offering tax incentives for deseasonalization, including R8. Reducing GHG emissions in the tourism industry reduced airport taxes during low-demand months and tax breaks for tourism businesses Specific 1. Explore carbon taxing to promote decarbonization in the tourism sector while addressing active year-round in high-capacity destinations like Agadir and Casablanca. Morocco’s current tax system’s failure to capture public revenues from fuel consumption and Activities 4. Launch awareness campaigns and introduce awards to encourage sustainable tourism internalize fossil fuel externalities. practices, spotlighting committed destinations and businesses to draw environmentally 2. Promote alternative transport options to lessen reliance on air travel, including enhancing conscious tourists and educate them on minimizing their environmental footprint. train and bus frequencies to major (Marrakech, Agadir, Casablanca, Fez and Tangier) and Pillar 3: Climate change impacts on the value chain alternative destinations (Chefchaouen, Errachidia, Taroudant, Azilal, Ifrane or Ouarzazate), improving intermodal transit hubs, and advancing the electrification of land transport. R5. Moving towards efficient water management 3. Foster regulations for the development and implementation of a Circularity Plan in the Specific 1. Establish national regulations for efficient water usage in accommodations and golf courses, accommodation sector (third largest emitter of GHGs in Morocco’s tourism sector after Activities including consumption limits per client, requirements for efficient equipment, and water transport and activities) in order to apply actions focused on energy efficiency, water saving, management practices. waste management (reduce-reuse-recycle) and local consumption strategies. 2. Launch a 360º program to decrease water consumption in 3* to 5* hotels, guesthouses, and golf courses, introducing water-saving technologies and practices, promoting the reuse of treated water, and encouraging sustainable landscaping. 3. Restrict new licenses for water-intensive facilities in areas at high risk of water scarcity. 4. Support the certification of tourism businesses in sustainability standards that advocate for the responsible use of natural resources. 5. 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However, it has been derived based support of currently underserved regions 8249 DOI: 10.1787/2b45a380-en, employment fall will heavily affect winter tourism, leading on data: looking at the capacity factors in could support both tourism and development factors are obtained from the ILO database. to losses of between US$200 million and regions outside of the main activity regions objectives. The 10 percent additional visitors US$500 million. Loss of GCC visitors will be and increasing visits to match usage of in such regions is a number set for illustra- 5 Cite CCDR regional paper felt more severely because they spend much existing capacities by the measures outlined tion. However, it has been derived based 6 Add citation to the report more per visit and per person than other in the text. The result has then been rounded on data: looking at the capacity factors in tourists. In Morocco, coastal tourism will be to 10 percent not to use any pseudo accurate regions outside of the main activity regions, 7 High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean fully affected due to increased temperatures value and pretend there was a complex and increasing visits to match usage of Economy. Summary for Decision-makers: and heatwaves, as well as increased risk of calculation behind the value. existing capacities by the measures outlined The Expected Impacts of Climate Change wildfires. Cultural tourism and conferences in the text. The result has then been rounded on the Ocean Economy. Available at: and education will also be partially affected 10 Defined as responsible travel to natural areas to 10 percent not to use any pseudo accurate http://www.oceanpanel.org/sites/default/ due to increased temperatures and heat- that conserves the environment, socially and value and pretend there was a complex files/2019-12/expected-impacts-cli- waves. economically sustains the well-being of the calculation behind the value. mate-change-on-the-ocean-economy-ex- local people and creates knowledge and ecutive-summary.pdf 9 The exercise was intended to show how understanding through interpretation and 2 The CCDRs are a core diagnostic, published support of currently underserved regions education (Source: 2022. World Bank. Tools by the World Bank, that integrates climate 8 Assumptions for each country to calculate could support both tourism and development and Resources for Nature-Based Tourism. change and development. They help coun- losses in jobs: In Egypt, Coastal tourism objectives. The 10 percent additional visitors Second Edition) tries prioritize the most impactful actions will be fully affected due to coral bleaching in such regions is a number set for illustra- that can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and temperature increases, diminishing the and boost adaptation and resilience, while attractiveness of Egypt’s coasts and season. delivering on broader development goals. Cultural tourism will be affected to a lesser extent, but will be shifting to fewer months 3 Results are shown in the Country Briefs in due to increased temperature and heat- Annex 2, 3 and 4 waves. In Lebanon, reduced snow cover due 59 60