www.ifc.org/thoughtleadership NOTE 83 • MAY 2020 What COVID-19 Means for Digital Infrastructure in Emerging Markets By Davide Strusani and Georges V. Houngbonon The COVID-19 pandemic shows that digital connectivity is critical to societal resilience and business continuity in times of crisis. For digital infrastructure providers in emerging markets, higher demand for connectivity may be counterbalanced by a series of negative shocks. These could affect broadband operators and smaller companies, leading to less competition, limited availability of open-access broadband infrastructure, and reduced technological innovation. However, the perceived value of digital connectivity is likely to rise, creating opportunities to implement policy reforms to accelerate the rollout of 4G and 5G. Digital infrastructure companies, however, may accelerate their migration toward diversified business models. Against a background of funding withdrawal from emerging markets, financing for smaller or independent companies in the poorest economies may require substantial support from development finance institutions to preserve competition, improve resilience, and promote digital inclusion for the poorest. This note discusses the potential implications of the societal resilience and business continuity—these COVID-19 crisis for private sector investors in the digital are founded on a robust and well-functioning digital infrastructure sector, with a focus on emerging markets. infrastructure. Digital infrastructure—the physical infrastructure of • For digital infrastructure providers in emerging markets, connectivity—consists of undersea, underground, and rising demand for connectivity may be partly offset by above-ground cables; tower sites, data centers, and satellites; negative demand and supply shocks caused by income the invisible spectrum used for wireless communication; loss among individuals and businesses as well as and the variety of equipment that interconnects the world disruptions to digital infrastructure supply chains. through the Internet. • The broadband sector is likely to be more exposed than Key findings the data hosting sector (such as data centers or Cloud services) due to differences in levels of maturity and • The COVID-19 crisis underscores the critical nature of more complex supply chains. Integrated companies, digital connectivity and digital services in supporting that is, those that control two or more segments of the About the Authors Davide Strusani is IFC’s Principal Economist for Telecom, Media, Technology, Venture Capital and Funds. Davide has worked extensively for private sector organizations, industry associations, and governments on the role of technology, digital services, and communications to deliver economic and social growth. He has led numerous in-country campaigns to focus governments and sector regulators on the benefits of ICT. His email is dstrusani@ifc.org. Georges Vivien Houngbonon is an Economist for Telecom, Media, Technology (TMT) at IFC. He has studied the impacts of digital technology in Africa and Europe for both academia and the private sector. His email is ghoungbonon@ifc.org. 1 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. digital infrastructure value chain, are likely to be better as healthcare and social transfers, as well as important positioned to weather supply shocks than specialized information such as health alerts. Digital connectivity independent companies. is supporting the enforcement of mitigation measures via contact tracing, and is critical to research and the • Specialized companies and smaller but fast-growing development of cures or vaccines via information pooling broadband network operators may face survival on Internet platforms.1 challenges, leading to more concentrated and therefore less competitive markets, limited availability of open- As a result, many markets are seeing increased use of digital access broadband infrastructure, or less technological infrastructure compared to pre-crisis levels.2 The magnitude innovation. This creates concerns that rural and gender of this increase varies significantly from one country to connectivity gaps may widen further in emerging another, and most existing evidence so far pertains to high- markets—and may slow expansion of 4G and 5G and middle-income countries.3 For instance, Vodafone networks. reports increased European usage—15 percent for mobile Internet and 44 percent for fixed broadband. In Ghana, • On the other hand, the perceived value of connectivity MTN reports an increase in traffic of 15 percent to 20 is likely to increase—consumers may consider it an even percent.4 This increased usage mainly reflects higher use of greater necessity (or even a right). As a result, public videoconferencing, uploading of data into the Cloud, and policy could accelerate universal digital connectivity and video-gaming. In the United States, T-Mobile reported a services, and governments could implement regulatory 77 percent increase in multimedia messages (MMS) and a changes to align connectivity with electricity or water 45 percent increase in video game traffic. Google Meet’s utilities. This could present opportunities to implement day-over-day growth surpassed 60 percent. The maximum policy reforms to accelerate the rollout of 4G and 5G. number of daily meeting participants on Zoom, the • Digital infrastructure companies can accelerate their videoconferencing app, increased from 10 million at the end migration to diversified business models by monetizing of December 2019 to 200 million by the end of March 2020. digital data or venturing into new areas such as digital This often translates into lower-quality Internet access. payments, digital content, and Cloud services. Ookla, which measures Internet performance, reported a significant but temporary decline in download speeds • Against a background of funding withdrawal from and an increase in network latency in China, especially in emerging markets, the digital infrastructure industry Hubei, during the lockdown.5 In Europe, Netflix adjusted may fare better than others in attracting funding, given video quality from high to standard definition to cope with expectations of increased demand in the medium- network traffic load.6 to long-term. However, financing for smaller or independent companies in the poorest economies, or There is still limited evidence about the impact of COVID-19 innovative products and technologies, may require on digital infrastructure in emerging markets (Table 3 substantial support from development finance on page 6). Levels of digital infrastructure in emerging institutions (DFIs). Such support would be critical to markets vary greatly, with large gaps persisting especially preserve competition, improve resilience, and promote in low-income countries (LICs), which are characterized by digital inclusion for the poorest. low levels of Internet penetration, low digital usage, large gaps in coverage between urban and rural areas, and high The COVID-19 Crisis is Increasing the Importance affordability barriers, especially for mobile Internet. of Digital Connectivity Most COVID-19 analysis to date focuses on government Digital connectivity has become critical to societal interventions or specific digital infrastructure subsectors. resilience and business continuity. The crisis and the For instance, GSMA Intelligence analyzes the usage and social distancing measures taken in reaction to it—stay- resilience of mobile networks as well as implications for at-home orders in particular—have made it clear that mobile operators and regulators.7 TowerXchange provides quality Internet and telephony access are necessary to experts views of the implications for tower companies,8 maintaining social interactions and enabling the continuity while Telegeography highlights the impact on broadband of government and the private sector. Individuals have network operators, including submarine cable operators.9 been able to work, attend classes, get medical advice from GlobalData analyzes the impact on digital infrastructure home, order food and goods, and connect with family subsectors, especially Cloud services providers.10 However, and friends via the Internet. Governments have relied on these industry analyses have not yet covered emerging digital connectivity to deliver critical public services such markets, differences between short- and medium-run 2 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. effects, or the business models of companies. While the also experience negative demand shocks in the short- health and economic consequences in emerging markets to-medium-term as a result of adverse macroeconomic are still unfolding at the moment,11 anticipating the impact outcomes such as higher unemployment, lower disposable on the digital infrastructure subsector will enable private incomes, and lower business demand, especially from small sector participants—especially digital infrastructure and medium businesses (SMEs).13 operators, regulators, commercial investors—and DFIs such The COVID-19 crisis is also likely to generate a number of as IFC to take immediate action and plan interventions supply shocks for digital infrastructure companies. Most for the post-COVID-19 era. Economic analysis can offer a of these shocks are expected to occur in the short term framework for anticipating such impacts. as a result of supply chain disruptions and organizational changes (Table 1). Social distancing measures in major A Review of Demand and Supply Shocks Induced manufacturing countries like China have led to the closure by the COVID-19 on Digital Infrastructure of factories and delays in shipments of critical IT equipment, For digital infrastructure companies, the COVID-19 crisis resulting in higher costs of inputs and delays in investment is primarily a positive demand shock (Table 1). Changes projects.14 For instance, while submarine cables are critical in consumer behavior as a result of social distancing for delivering high-speed Internet access, telecommunications measures and increased demand for healthcare services research firm Telegeography reports at least one supplier are typically short-term demand shocks, featuring higher closing two factories to comply with quarantine in March.15 demand for data-intensive services like videoconferencing, Submarine cable maintenance companies are particularly at video calls, live streaming, and file uploading. These shocks risk as they cruise across oceans in an environment where are expected to be temporary—occurring at the peak of social distancing is difficult to enforce. Also, many digital the outbreak, as suggested by observed usage patterns in infrastructure companies have resorted to home-based China, Italy, and Spain. However, there is a possibility that work, generating higher operating expenditures as they these shocks will remain in the longer term. For example, invest in additional, quality teleconferencing as well as data the outbreak could lead to a permanent shift in consumer hosting services, shifting from office-centric to home-centric behavior—individuals may upgrade their broadband organizations. These negative short-term supply shocks may speeds, subscribe to online news and entertainment plans, be compounded with long-term shocks due to the potential and participate in more online shopping and schooling/ exit of critical suppliers or distributors post-crisis because of tutoring. And businesses may gradually virtualize increased financial distress. critical operations to enable home-based working and A further positive shock may come from the consideration strengthen business continuity plans in anticipation of that the value of digital connectivity may experience an similar outbreaks in the future.12 While these are positive upward shift as a result of the COVID-19 crisis. It is likely demand shocks, digital infrastructure companies may Demand for digital connectivity and services Supply of digital connectivity and services Short-term Change in consumer usage patterns, including new Disruption in the digital infrastructure supply chain, (during lockdown) data-intensive applications for individuals (such as video resulting in a higher cost of inputs (such as IT equipment conferencing or streaming) and organizational change and energy) and delays in investment projects from business (including Cloud storage and computing, Organizational changes stemming from social home-based work) distancing of workers, resulting in higher costs of operations Long-term A shift in consumer behavior, including permanent Exit of critical suppliers and distributors resulting from (after lockdown) change in usage patterns for individuals and increased financial distress virtualization of business operations—both public and private—to strengthen resilience Income loss resulting from unemployment and the exit of private sector businesses TABLE 1 Potential Demand and Supply Shocks of COVID-19 on Digital Infrastructure Source: IFC. 3 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. Emerging markets vs. Broadband vs. Integrated vs. specialized/ high-income countries data-hosting sector independent companies Demand shocks (positive) – – = Demand shocks (negative) + – = Supply shocks (negative) + + – Upward shift in the value of digital connectivity + = = TABLE 2 Relative Magnitude of COVID-19 shocks on Digital Infrastructure Source: IFC. Note: Large (+), small (−), or limited (=) magnitude of shock. Emerging markets include middle- and low-income countries. The data hosting sector includes data center colocation and cloud service providers. Integrated companies control two or more segments of the digital infrastructure value chain. For instance, a mobile network operator controls both the last mile connectivity segment, towers, and wholesale broadband networks. Specialized companies focus on a specific segment of the value chain, such as a tower company or an independent data center operator. that governments and consumers will consider connectivity a In middle-income countries, where social distancing can be necessity, and may even begin to identify Internet access as a more effectively enforced, nascent digital ecosystems and basic human right. Prior to COVID-19, digital connectivity lower levels of digital skills (especially in lower-middle- was often viewed as a “good to have,” a second-order priority income countries) could prevent a significant increase in compared to other infrastructure. The COVID-19 crisis may Internet usage at levels comparable to those observed in induce an upward shift in the value of connectivity, one that high-income countries. Emerging markets may, however, is likely to affect consumer demand as well as public policies, experience larger supply shocks due to less integration into particularly toward digital inclusion for the poorest. global value chains and limited opportunities for local manufacturing to substitute exports. Emerging markets The magnitude of these shocks will vary significantly could also gain from an increase in the value of digital across countries according to their income levels, across connectivity as they tended to prioritize other utilities digital infrastructure sub-sectors, and across companies— before the COVID-19 crisis struck. depending on their business model before the crisis (Table 2). The broadband sector, including submarine cable and High-income countries (HICs) are likely to face bigger satellite operators, fixed broadband operators, tower demand shocks and smaller supply shocks than emerging companies, and mobile network operators, is likely to be markets. Increased usage of digital connectivity is expected more exposed than the data hosting sector (for example, to be larger in HICs than emerging markets due to data centers and Cloud facilities) to the COVID-19 crisis differences in network technologies, levels of economic due to different levels of maturity and more complex supply development, and the development stage of their digital chains. The data hosting sector is more nascent than the economies. HICs have a larger capacity and more robust broadband sector and, as such, is expected to benefit networks than emerging markets to support a surge in more from the increased usage of digital connectivity and Internet traffic due to higher access to fixed network services—beyond higher Internet traffic. Retail broadband technologies (copper, fiber optic, and TV cables).16 The operators—mobile network operators (MNOs) and Internet capacity of mobile networks, which are the dominant service providers (ISPs)—typically offer a flat tariff for broadband access technology in emerging markets, is generous data packages and minimum quality, limiting their shared among users and is therefore more sensitive to surges ability to benefit from increased data usage. Yet, they may in demand. The informal sector accounts for a larger share need to incur higher operating expenditures to maintain of economic activity in emerging markets—86 percent of their networks during traditional off-peak hours, and higher workers in Africa and 68 percent in Asia-Pacific, according capital expenditures to maintain network quality, thereby to the International Labour Organization (ILO)—limiting potentially experiencing larger supply shocks. the enforcement of social distancing (especially stay-at- home orders).17 As a result, the increase in network traffic is Integrated companies, such as those that control two or expected to be more limited in emerging markets. more segments of the digital infrastructure value chain, 4 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. are likely to be better positioned to weather the supply technologies (fiber or 5G for businesses and 3G/4G for shocks than specialized independent companies such as individuals) may be limited, as the return on investment retail operators (for example, ISP, MNOs, and mobile could be lower than it was before the crisis. virtual network operators) and retail data center operators. Access to and usage of data hosting services in emerging Integrated network operators can internalize costs resulting markets may not be affected negatively in the short run as from the upstream segment of their value chains. For Cloud services providers can rely on data centers outside instance, integrated broadband operators would not have their local markets. to purchase additional wholesale transmission capacity (national or international) or access network capacity Risk 2: The digital infrastructure sector could become less from wholesalers to maintain the quality of connectivity competitive, with potential concerns about its resilience delivered to end users. Likewise, integrated Cloud services and inclusiveness due to negative supply shocks on providers with their own data centers may be better specialized/independent operators positioned to respond to increased demand for data hosting Negative supply shocks such as disruptions to digital services than specialized Cloud services providers. infrastructure supply chains and organizational changes, as well as the exit of critical suppliers, could result in the Digital Infrastructure in Emerging Markets: limited growth of specialized companies, the potential exit Summary of Risks and Opportunities of smaller but fast-growing broadband network operators, Based on a review of the shocks discussed above, the or the suspension of wholesale data center projects. following risks and opportunities may arise in the digital This may lead to more concentrated markets, limited infrastructure sector. availability of open-access broadband infrastructure, or less technological innovation (for example fiber networks). Risk 1: The COVID-19 crisis could widen the gap in Digital infrastructure companies with lower margins, digital connectivity between and within emerging markets typically new entrants or players in contestable markets, as quality degrades further and affordability worsens in are likely to be affected by short-term demand shocks, the most challenging markets potentially weakening market competitiveness. In the short run, emerging markets, which mainly rely Less-competitive digital connectivity markets and reduced on mobile networks for connectivity, could experience a affordability could result in fewer incentives to invest, decline in broadband quality—with lower speeds and higher thereby limiting the resilience of digital infrastructure— latency—because of the substantial increases in demand for especially in markets that mainly rely on mobile networks. digital connectivity. Such a decline in quality could be greater Also, the exit of smaller network operators or Cloud in nascent digital economies, landlocked or island countries, service providers from some emerging markets resulting as well as in rural areas and for women. These impacts from negative supply shocks could limit access to digital could be worsened by negative supply shocks resulting connectivity for low-income individuals and micro, small, from disruptions in digital infrastructure supply chains and medium businesses (MSMEs). and organizational changes in broadband infrastructure companies. The higher cost of inputs such as IT equipment Risk 3: Reduced access to finance for digital infrastructure and delays in investment projects could limit the ability companies of broadband operators to respond to increased demand. Against the background of a general reduction in funding Likewise, the social distancing of digital connectivity workers to emerging markets following the COVID-19 crisis, could also limit response to increased usage. the negative medium-run impact on demand for digital In the medium run, consumers in emerging markets, connectivity, compounded with the greater fragility of including individuals and businesses, may suffer from the specialized/independent broadband operators, may make lower affordability of digital connectivity resulting from them less attractive to commercial investors. This risk may income losses (due to a potential rise in unemployment be exacerbated by increased country risks for low-income or underemployment, and poor business performance)— countries. A lack of financing may also delay investment in especially in sectors such as hospitality, travel, and 4G/5G in emerging markets, which in turn could slow the offline entertainment. This impact would be larger for expansion of the digital economy. However, the increased value workers and businesses that are more exposed to the of connectivity and the robustness of certain sector segments macroeconomic effects of the outbreak. As a result of lower (such as incumbent operators, integrated companies, and data affordability, access to the new generation of broadband hosting facilities) may buck the negative financing trend. 5 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. Opportunity 1: The value of digital infrastructure providers and monetize digital data (for example, smart cities, increases and connectivity is seen as a necessity or a right or smart-grid applications using artificial intelligence). The upward shift in the value of digital connectivity may Opportunity 3: Public policies become more supportive of drive increased demand for connectivity. High-income investment in digital infrastructure and more pro-digital consumers would be willing to pay more for digital Governments may accelerate policies for connectivity, connectivity, potentially limiting the decline in average and the sector may become a policy priority. Accelerated revenue per user observed in most emerging markets. policies may result in direct public interventions in the The long-term shift in consumer behavior toward more rollout of digital infrastructure, especially at the wholesale resilient technologies could support higher demand for level and in hard-to-reach areas. Cloud computing and therefore for data center capacity. Changes that could lead to increased investment As businesses, both public and private, increase the use opportunities may include: (a) fast-track availability of radio of online services in their operations, emerging markets spectrum (like in South Africa),18 (b) policies supportive could experience a surge in data center capacity. Long-term of infrastructure sharing, (c) reductions in sector-specific financing may support this change—although with the risk taxation on digital infrastructure companies and equipment, of large incumbents benefitting the most. If Internet access which are often seen as “cash-cows” by governments, (d) is perceived as a right, the digital sector may experience implementation of asymmetric regulations to support smaller an increase in public subsidies to support more aggressive operators, and (e) promotion of flexible data sovereignty law universal access policies, with an emphasis on the to enable offshore data hosting for certain sectors. Fiscal underserved, including women. pressure from COVID-19 and lower oil prices may also drive Opportunity 2: Digital infrastructure companies migrate some countries to embrace sector reform. toward diversified business models Opportunity 4: Development finance has an opportunity Demand and supply shocks from COVID-19 may drive to step up financing for an industry with strong, long- broadband operators to monetize revenue upside from digital term potential but also requirements for substantial payments, digital content, and digital data (for example, credit upgrades and innovation in emerging markets—including scoring, human mobility tracking, targeting of social policies). support for 5G technologies that could increase resilience Cloud services providers could integrate with data center across multiple sectors Analyst GMSA TowerXchange Telegeography GlobalData Main focus MNOs & Regulators Tower companies Broadband network Data storage & Cloud* operators Regional focus Global Global (U.S. at present) Global Global Key challenges • Churn down, usage up Broadly resilient— Increased data traffic Depends on verticals: • Increasing similar to the 2008 along the broadband • Decline in demand requirements for financial crisis: critical value chain, including due to delays in key IT network resilience infrastructure, consume submarine cables projects a fairly modest share of • Delays in network carrier Opex, and long- • Surge in demand rollout term contracts for Cloud and edge • A potential slowdown computing in consumer 5G adoption Sources GSMAi (a), GSMAi (b), TowerXchange Telegeography GlobalData GSMA TABLE 3 COVID-19 Impacts on Digital Infrastructure—Summary of External Analyst Reports * The focus of the GlobalData report is beyond the data storage and cloud. 6 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. Immediate actions may include the provision of working Business, Economics, and Private Sector Development, capital or equity investment, especially for independent IFC; Tom Kerr, Manager, Global Industries and Thematic operators, in broadband sectors in the most challenging Engagement, Communications and Outreach, IFC; and emerging markets. Such actions could help soften the within Thought Leadership, Economics and Private Sector shocks and preserve the competitiveness of the digital Development, IFC: Neil Gregory, Chief Thought Leadership sector. Financing support could enhance market Officer; and Thomas Rehermann, Senior Economist. competitiveness as operators in need will be those that are Please see the following additional reports and EM ensuring market contestability. Compass Notes about technology and its role in emerging Medium- to long-term plans could seek to strengthen markets and private investments in infrastructure: resilience and inclusiveness of the digital infrastructure Artificial Intelligence in the Power Sector (Note 81, April sector by supporting investment in redundant digital 2020); Accelerating Digital Connectivity Through Shared Digital infrastructure and enabling expansion of Cloud services Infrastructure (Note 79, February 2020); Artificial Intelligence providers and broadband operators in hard-to-reach areas. and 5G Mobile Technology Can Drive Investment Opportunities in More public-private partnership (PPP) projects could Emerging Markets (Note 76, December 2019); How Artificial require financing as a result of increased government Intelligence is Making Transport Safer, Cleaner, More Reliable and interventions in the digital sector. Efficient in Emerging Markets (Note 75, November 2019); Bridging the Trust Gap: Blockchain’s Potential to Restore Trust in Artificial ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Intelligence in Support of New Business Models (Note 74, October The authors would like to thank the following colleagues 2019); Artificial Intelligence: Investment Trends and Selected Industry for their review and suggestions: Issa Faye, Director, Sector Uses (Note 71, September 2019); The Role of Artificial Intelligence Economics and Development Impact, Economics and Private in Supporting Development in Emerging Markets (Note 69, July Sector Development, IFC; within Global Infrastructure, 2019); Reinventing Business Through Disruptive Technologies—Sector IFC: German Cufre, Manager, TMT; Ferdinand Van Ingen, Trends and Investment Opportunities for Firms in Emerging Markets Senior Industry Specialist, TMT; Carlo Maria Rossotto, TMT (Report, March 2019); Blockchain: Opportunities for Private Upstream; Alexa Roscoe, Digital Economy Lead, Gender Enterprises in Emerging Markets (Report, January 2019). 1 IFC plans to discuss the impacts of COVID-19 crisis on digital businesses in a separate note. 2 For more information, see evidence collected by Telegeography at https://www2.telegeography.com/network-impact. 3 Economist. 2020. “Can mobile networks handle becoming stay-at-home networks?” April 4. https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/ 2020/04/03/can-mobile-networks-handle-becoming-stay-at-home-networks. 4 Citi Newsroom https://citinewsroom.com/2020/03/covid-19-data-usage-up-by-15-20-mtn-ghana-ceo/ 5 Speedtest. 2020. “Tracking COVID-19’s Impact on Global Internet Performance.” March 13, updated April 27. https://www.speedtest.net/insights/blog/ tracking-covid-19-impact-global-internet-performance/. 6 Hartmans, Avery. “Netflix is reducing its streaming quality in Europe to avoid straining the internet during COVID-19.” World Economic Forum. March 20. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/netflix-is-reducing-the-quality-of-its-streams-in-europe-to-avoid-straining-the-internet-during- the-coronavirus-outbreak/. 7 Hatt, Tim et al. 2020. “Covid19 impact: testing the resiliency of mobile networks.” GSMA Intelligence. 8 TowerXchange. 2020. “Exploring the impact of the Coronavirus on towercos and on towerco valuations.” March 31. https://www.towerxchange.com/ exploring-the-impact-of-the-coronavirus-on-towercos-and-on-towerco-valuations/. 9 Mauldin, Alan. 2020. “The COVID-19 Impact on the Submarine Cable Industry.” TeleGeography (blog), March 29. https://blog.telegeography.com/ covid-19-impact-on-the-submarine-cable-industry?utm_source=account_homepage. 10 GlobalData. 2020. “Tech, Media, & Telecom Trends 2020.” Report, March 20. 11 As of April 15, EMs still account for less than 25 percent of confirmed cases, but are already being hit by deteriorating trade and financial environment: $96 billion, or 0.4 percent of GDP, left emerging markets between January 21 and March 31, UNCTAD forecasts that this could cause a 40 percent drop in FDIs during 2020-21, and balance of payment pressures have led to depreciations of up to 20 percent in major currencies relative to the U.S. dollar since the crisis, while spreads on sovereign and corporate debt instruments have significantly risen following recent ratings downgrades. 12 While viral outbreaks may become frequent, cyber-attacks is also a major risk for the future. 13 In China, iPhone sales dropped to 490,000 in February from 1.27 million in the previous year (GSMAi). 14 Mauldin 2020. 15 Ibid. 16 On average, OECD member states—close to 80 percent of households—have access to fixed broadband with significant share. 17 ILO (International Labour Organization). 2018. “More than 60 per cent of the world’s employed population are in the informal economy.” Press Release, April 30. https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_627189/lang--en/index.htm. 18 ICASA. https://www.icasa.org.za/news/2020/emergency-release-of-spectrum-to-meet-the-spike-in-broadband-services-demand-due-to-covid-19 7 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. Additional EM Compass Notes Previously Published by IFC Thought Leadership MAY 2020 JUNE 2019 Note 82: Artificial Intelligence in Agribusiness is Growing in Note 68: Basic Business Models for Banks Providing Digital Emerging Markets Financial Services in Africa APRIL 2020 APRIL 2019 Note 81: Artificial Intelligence in the Power Sector Note 67: The Case for Responsible Investing in Digital Financial Services MARCH 2020 Note 80: Developing Artificial Intelligence Sustainably: MARCH 2019 Toward a Practical Code of Conduct for Disruptive Note 66: Blended Concessional Finance: Governance Matters Technologies for Impact Note 80a: IFC Technology Code of Conduct—Progression Note 65: Natural Gas and the Clean Energy Transition Matrix—Public Draft—Addendum to Note 80 FEBRUARY 2019 FEBRUARY 2020 Note 64: Institutional Investing: A New Investor Forum Note 79: Accelerating Digital Connectivity Through and Growing Interest in Sustainable Emerging Markets Infrastructure Sharing Investments Note 78: Artificial Intelligence and the Future for Smart JANUARY 2019 Homes Note 63: Blockchain and Associated Legal Issues for Emerging Markets JANUARY 2020 Note 77: Creating Domestic Capital Markets in Developing Note 62: Service Performance Guarantees for Public Utilities Countries: Perspectives from Market Participants and Beyond—An Innovation with Potential to Attract Investors to Emerging Markets DECEMBER 2019 Note 76: Artificial Intelligence and 5G Mobile Technology Can NOVEMBER 2018 Drive Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets Note 61: Using Blockchain to Enable Cleaner, Modern Energy Systems in Emerging Markets NOVEMBER 2019 Note 75: How Artificial Intelligence is Making Transport Safer, Note 60: Blended Concessional Finance: Scaling Up Private Cleaner, More Reliable and Efficient in Emerging Markets Investment in Lower-Income Countries OCTOBER 2019 OCTOBER 2018 Note 74: Bridging the Trust Gap: Blockchain’s Potential to Note 59: How a Know-Your-Customer Utility Could Increase Restore Trust in Artificial Intelligence in Support of New Access to Financial Services in Emerging Markets Business Models Note 58: Competition Works: Driving Microfinance Note 73: Closing the SDG Financing Gap—Trends and Data Institutions to Reach Lower-Income People and the Unbanked in Peru SEPTEMBER 2019 Note 72: Blended Concessional Finance: The Rise of SEPTEMBER 2018 Returnable Capital Contributions Note 57: Blockchain Governance and Regulation as an Enabler for Market Creation in Emerging Markets Note 71: Artificial Intelligence: Investment Trends and Selected Industry Uses JULY 2018 Note 56: A Practical Tool to Create Economic Opportunity AUGUST 2019 for Low-Income Communities Note 70: How Insurtech Can Close the Protection Gap in Emerging Markets JUNE 2018 Note 55: Peru’s Works for Taxes Scheme: An Innovative JULY 2019 Solution to Accelerate Private Provision of Infrastructure Note 69: The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Supporting Investment Development in Emerging Markets 8 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group.