www.ifc.org/thoughtleadership NOTE 97 • JAN 2021 How Artificial Intelligence Can Help Advance Post-Secondary Learning in Emerging Markets By Baloko Makala, Maud Schmitt, and Alejandro Caballero Tertiary and vocational learning is widely recognized as critical for all countries’ economic success. While progress has been made toward achieving the 4th United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 4) by 2030—“Ensure Inclusive and Equitable Quality Education and Promote Lifelong Learning for All”—a 2019 UN report shows that some 750 million adults are functionally illiterate. These statistics illustrate the enormous challenge of adequately preparing the workforce for rapid technological change that will require continual reskilling. Although machines with artificial intelligence are likely to replace millions of workers across the world, AI also has great potential to enable workers to keep up with technological change and remain employable. This note attempts to illustrates how AI can support post-secondary learning across the entire tertiary and vocational education sector in emerging markets. The crucial role that a well-educated population plays Youth employment remains a global challenge and a top in a country’s economic success is demonstrated by the policy concern.3 prominence of education on the list of United Nations’ 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to be achieved by Artificial Intelligence and Automation 2030— Ensure Inclusive and Equitable Quality Education By 2030, over 400 million workers across the world and Promote Lifelong Learning for All. This is SDG 4. are expected to change jobs due to automation and Globally, some 750 million adults are functionally illiterate, technological advancements. Also, by 2030, an estimated and two-thirds of these are women—half of whom live in 30 percent of current jobs could be lost due to automation. Africa or South Asia.1 These sobering statistics illustrate Women are at even greater risk due to their prevalence the enormous challenge to developing well-educated, in clerical and administrative work, where automation is lifelong learners who can keep up with rapid technological happening quickly.4 change and remain employable. 2 Job destruction and creation have occurred in every In emerging markets, there are significant obstacles to industrial revolution since the eighteenth century, and overcome to achieve SDG 4 by 2030. Global youth are of artificial intelligence (AI) will have the same impact. AI particular concern, as illustrated in Figure 1. Currently, is a technology that enables machines, and especially more than 64 million youth are unemployed worldwide. computers, to analyze their environment and take action About the Authors Baloko Makala, Consultant, Thought Leadership, Economics and Private Sector Development, IFC (bmakala@worldbank.org). Maud Schmitt, Research Assistant, Thought Leadership, Economics and Private Sector Development, IFC (mschmitt@ifc.org). Alejandro Caballero, Principal Education Specialist, MAS Global—Health & Education, Manufacturing, Agribusiness & Services, IFC (acaballero@ifc.org). 1 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. 15% 82 Youth unemployment 14% 79 Youth unemployment rate Youth unemployed (millions) Youth unemployment rate 13% 76 12% 73 11% 70 10% 67 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 FIGURE 1 Global Youth Unemployment 1998–2018 Source: Calculations based on ILO Trends Econometric Models, April 2017. International Labour Organization. 2017. “Global Employment Trends for Youth.” Geneva: International Labour Organization. with some degree of autonomy. As with earlier industrial In emerging markets, AI could revolutionize the post- transformations, AI is expected to cause social, economic, secondary education system by: providing affordable and political disruptions (Figure 2). post-secondary education for everyone; making learning more interesting and interactive; individualizing learning The exact impact that disruptive technologies such as AI so that content is tailored to individual students’ needs, will have on work and society is yet to be fully understood. enabling them to learn at their own pace; and taking over Yet it is very clear that the need for constant reskilling is time-consuming administrative and assessment tasks already an important challenge facing employers and the so that educators can spend more time improving their workforce. And AI presents tremendous opportunities instructional materials, preparing for classes, and coaching for educational technology (EdTech) providers, as well as their students. for learners and educators at all levels of post-secondary education (Figure 3). The global market for AI-based educational products is growing quickly. It was valued at $521 million in 2018 and The Promise of Artificial Intelligence in Education is projected to reach about $10 billion by 2026, growing at a compound annual rate of 45.1 percent from 2019 AI is now commonplace in the education ecosystem in to 2026.5 Although emerging markets are only a small advanced economies. From natural language processing to fraction of the global AI market now, several companies machine learning, AI is contributing to solving educational have begun to emerge. challenges, including expanding the availability of education, closing achievement gaps by coaching learners, Personalized Learning and personalizing learning. Daptio, an award-winning South Africa-based e-learning As the education sector adopts new technologies that company, uses deep-learning analytics to personalize include AI, the roles of everyone in the post-secondary learning for teachers, students, and content creators across education ecosystem—including students, teachers, Africa and in other emerging markets.6 As opposed to the curriculum developers, educational institutions, restrictive, traditional approach of providing content to government agencies, and regulators—are likely to be students based on their grade level, Daptio leverages cloud- transformed. 2 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. based technology and AI to match students’ aptitude levels, Less than 1 month enabling them to learn at their own pace. 13% AI education providers like Daptio support students and other education stakeholders, especially those in emerging 1–3 months markets, in acquiring and perfecting the knowledge and 12% skills that young people need to enter the job market Amount of successfully. 46% reskilling needed 10% 3–6 months Online Learning Providers and AI None Coursera and edX, the two most popular online learning 9% platforms worldwide, offer thousands of online courses, 10% 6–12 months Over 1 year certificates, and degrees. They currently use AI to optimize both access to courses and the learning process. As of mid-2019, Coursera, the largest online education provider, was partnering with 192 institutions in 43 countries and FIGURE 2 Reskilling Needs offering more than 3,200 courses in multiple languages. Source: World Economic Forum. Menon, Jayant. 2019. “The Fourth Between 2017 and 2019, the platform’s learner base Industrial Revolution Could Spell More Jobs – Not Fewer.” Weforum.com, grew from 26 million to 40 million. By 2026, Coursera’s September 17, 2019. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/09/fourth- industrial-revolution-jobs/. earnings are projected to be between $43 billion and $65 billion.7 edX, a non-profit platform launched in 2012 by Harvard University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United States, is partnering with several to grade hundreds of student submissions, they have more major universities and companies worldwide and already time to interact with students to help them to learn.9 has more than 20 million learners. Its goal is to transform Smart Content traditional education and training by removing the barriers of cost, location, and access.8 Content technology companies are using AI to develop “smart” educational content. For example, Netex AI Allows for More Time Spent on Core Learning, a digital learning company, enables educators Educational Tasks to develop electronic curricula for a wide array of devices by leveraging an AI interface. This technology, “smart” AI can automate many of the time-consuming tasks classrooms, and other immersive educational experiences that post-secondary educators have traditionally had to provide new and more effective ways to teach science, perform. These include taking attendance by electronically geography, and other subjects.10 logging in students when they enter the classroom, assessing homework, grading examinations, and keeping Machine learning can also be used to identify students’ student performance records. This gives educators who use strengths and learning gaps and adjust the complexity of AI more time to prepare classes and coach students. course content to the individual learner. Scoring Systems For example, Lilishuo, a Chinese EdTech company that employs AI to teach English language skills, is a Among the AI applications now being used to improve smartphone app used by over 70 million people in China teaching and learning are those that grade essays and help and in 175 countries around the world.11 students prepare for national exams. Virtual Assistants Gradescope, a California-based startup, offers AI-assisted grading technology that groups similar test answers into Cognii is an Edtech company that provides AI-enabled batches that a teacher can scan through, review, and learning that lets students at all levels of education, grade more efficiently. Gradescope’s AI program learns to including university, converse with a chatbot. The grade students’ submissions based on a small number of company’s virtual learning assistant converses with the answers provided by the teacher. This allows the teacher student and prompts them to construct an answer. The to only grade those answers that differ from those he or chatbot instantly assesses the student and provides tutoring she provided to Gradescope. Since teachers no longer have services using personalized hints and tips that provide 3 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. Decreasing Stable Increasing Critical thinking and analysis Problem-solving Self-management Working with people Management and communication of activities Technology use and development Core literacies Physical abilities 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Share of companies surveyed FIGURE 3 Change in demand for core work-related skills (2015–20) Source: Source: Future of Jobs Survey, World Economic Forum. guidance toward conceptual mastery. The company also distant prospect in emerging markets, mainly because offers a similar virtual assistant for educators.12 mobile communications providers have yet to fully exploit 4G LTE and recoup their investments. Nevertheless, the How Mobile Phones Can Support E-Learning lack of 5G in emerging markets should not impede the use of AI in education. AI can be effectively used with 4G Globally there are over five billion mobile phone LTE, as well as slower cellular technologies. For example, users, making that technology nearly universal in both M-Shule is an e-learning platform developed in Kenya that developed and emerging markets. And mobile phones are uses AI and SMS text messaging to deliver personalized, an efficient mode of delivery for educational programs. accessible education to primary school students across With the anticipated widespread adoption of 5G cellular Africa, including those who do not have access to the communication, mobile phones hold even greater promise Internet but have use of mobile phones. for delivering education and training. 5G delivers what 4G LTE currently does, but at far higher speeds with greater AI EdTech Adoption in Emerging Markets reliability and without noticeable delays. 5G also connects far more devices. While a 4G LTE tower can connect 2,000 EdTech initiatives in emerging markets provide digitally- devices per square kilometer, a 5G tower can support over a registered students with individually tailored curricula. million devices in the same area. This allows students to perfect their skills and advance at their own pace. By using AI, even schools with large However, the true potential of 5G in education will only be classes can provide excellent and engaging learning realized when it is combined with AI. For example, smart support for students. classrooms using 5G and AI will be able to deliver rich content (including video, audio, and other elements) that In Latin America, governments have been investing heavily encourages users on a multitude of devices to interact and in Edtech, and as a result, AI systems are already widely engage at the same time, with no drops in connectivity. used in the region’s education systems. This support ranges from classroom support to online learning, early childhood While the rollout of 5G is currently underway in most education, language learning, and career development.13 advanced economies, 5G connectivity remains a more 4 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. Edoome, an EdTech company with a large presence in In Implementing AI, Educators Must Latin America, provides higher education faculty with the Remain Central tools to create online classrooms and share documents, In order to avoid the AI-associated challenges discussed assignments, and tests, and to record grades.14 in this note and reap the benefits of AI in learning, Coursera and edX are both widely used by governments educators need to remain central to the learning process. for career development in Latin America. The Peruvian Furthermore, educators should become mediators between platform Crehana offers online courses on such diverse AI platforms and students to enhance learning outcomes.19 topics as graphic design, photography, marketing, By extension, this educator-technology combination in and architecture.15 emerging markets will help deliver the benefits that AI can potentially contribute toward students’ successful learning Challenges in Implementing AI outcomes and develop their capacity to engage in lifelong learning to assure their employment and the economic Lack of Digital Literacy success of their countries. Both teachers’ and students’ digital literacy is a major challenge in some emerging markets, especially in low- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS income countries. As of January 2019, only 36 percent of The authors would like to thank the following colleagues the population in Africa and 52 percent in Asia and the for their review and suggestions: Christopher M. McCahan, Pacific used the Internet.16 Due to limited Internet access Chief Investment Officer, Global Manufacturing, Agribusiness in many parts of these regions, the populations that would & Services, Health & Education, IFC; Lana Graf, Principal most benefit from EdTech are facing yet another challenge. Industry Specialist, Disruptive Technologies and Funds, IFC; If no public or private sector action is taken to increase Georges Houngbonon, Economist, Disruptive Technologies Internet access, especially in rural areas, EdTech will only and Funds, Sector Economics and Development Impact, increase existing disparities in educational outcomes. IFC; and Thomas Rehermann, Senior Economist, Thought Lack of Expertise Leadership, Economics and Private Sector Development, IFC. In comparison to AI use in industry and in agriculture, Please see the following additional International AI is in its infancy in the education sector in emerging Finance Corporation reports and EM Compass Notes on economies. The majority of educational institutions lack a technology and its role in emerging markets: formal data management strategy to support their use of AI Artificial Intelligence in Emerging Markets—Opportunities, Trends, capabilities, and educators generally lack the understanding and Emerging Business Models (September 2020); How EdTech needed to practically implement such a strategy.17 The lack Can Disrupt Business Models in Emerging Markets (Chapter 9 of technical expertise needed to integrate AI solutions that of report Reinventing Business through Disruptive Technologies involve complex algorithms has also hampered the growth – Sector Trends and Investment Opportunities for Firms in of the AI market. Emerging Markets (March 2019); What COVID-19 Means for As is often the case with AI technologies, data is the source Digital Infrastructure in Emerging Markets (Note 83, May 2020); of discrepancies, due to a lack of diversity in observed The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Supporting Development in populations or groups of populations datasets.18 Emerging Markets (Note 69, July 2019). 5 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. 1 Undocs.org. 2019. “Special Edition: Progress Towards the Sustainable Development Goals.” Paris: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000366994. https://undocs.org/E/2019/68. 2 Ibid. 3 Ilo.org. n.d. “Youth Employment.” https://www.ilo.org/global/topics/youth-employment/lang—en/index.htm. 4 Hawksworth, John, Richard Berriman, and Saloni Goel. 2018. “Will Robots Really Steal our Jobs?” PwC. https://www.pwc.co.uk/economic-services/ assets/international-impact-of-automation-feb-2018.pdf; See also PwC. 2018. “How Will Automation Impact Jobs?” https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/ economics/insights/the-impact-of-automation-on-jobs.html. 5 Verified Market Research. 2019. “Global AI In Education Market By Technology, By Application, By End User, By Geographic Scope And Forecast To 2026.” https://www.verifiedmarketresearch.com/product/ai-in-education-market/#:~:text=According%20to%20Verified%20Market%20 Research,45.12%25%20from%202019%20to%202026. 6 Sossi, Dino. 2016. “Daptio.” EdLab, Teachers College Columbia University, April 24. https://edlab.tc.columbia.edu/blog/17133-Daptio. 7 Eckstein, Jakob. 2019. “How Coursera Makes Money.” Investopedia. July 30. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/042815/how-coursera- works-makes-money.asp. 8 See website: https://www.edx.org/about-us. 9 See website: https://www.gradescope.com/. 10 See website: https://www.netexlearning.com/en/. 11 See website: https://www.liulishuo.com/en/. 12 Cognii – Artificial Intelligence for Education. See: https://www.cognii.com/. 13 Lustig, Nathan. 2015. “Edoome Rolls Out to All Chilean Public Schools.” Nathanlustig.com, December 22. https://www.nathanlustig.com/edoome- rolls-chilean-public-schools/. 14 See website: https://www.edoome.com. 15 See website: https://www.crehana.com/. 16 Kemp, Simon. 2019. “Digital 2019: Global Digital Overview.” Datareportal.com, January 31. https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2019-global- digital-overview. 17 Ayoub, Dan. 2020. “Unleashing the Power of AI for Education.” MIT Technology Review. March 4, 2020. https://www.technologyreview. com/2020/03/04/905535/unleashing-the-power-of-ai-for-education/. 18 Kulkarni, Andrea. 2019. “AI in Education: Where Is It Now and What Is the Future?” lexalytics.com, Sept 6, 2019. https://www.lexalytics.com/ lexablog/ai-in-education-present-future-ethics. 19 UNESCO. 2019.“Artificial Intelligence in Education: Challenges and Opportunities for Sustainable Development.” Paris: United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000366994. Additional EM Compass Notes Previously Published by IFC Thought Leadership DECEMBER 2020 AUGUST 2020 Note 96: Innovation, Investment, and Emerging Note 89: Social Bonds Can Help Mitigate the Economic and Opportunities in Today’s Textile and Apparel Value Chain Social Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis Note 95: How Tourism in Emerging Markets is Recovering Note 88: What African Industrial Development Can Learn from Covid-19 from East Asian Successes—The Role of Complexity and Economic Fitness NOVEMBER 2020 Note 94: Deep Tech Solutions for Emerging Markets JULY 2020 Note 87: AI Investments Allow Emerging Markets to Develop Note 93: :Impacts of COVID-19 on the Private Sector in and Expand Sophisticated Manufacturing Capabilities Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations JUNE 2020 OCTOBER 2020 Note 86: Leveraging Big Data to Advance Gender Equality Note 92: How Natural Capital Approaches Can Support Sustainable Investments and Markets Note 85: Artificial Intelligence Innovation in Financial Services SEPTEMBER 2020 MAY 2020 Note 91: Artificial Intelligence and Healthcare in Emerging Note 84: Leveraging Inclusive Businesses Models to Support Markets the Base of the Pyramid during COVID-19 Note 90: Lessons for Electric Utilities from COVID-19 Note 83: What COVID-19 Means for Digital Infrastructure in Responses in Emerging Markets Emerging Markets 6 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. MAY 2020 JUNE 2019 Note 82: Artificial Intelligence in Agribusiness is Growing in Note 68: Basic Business Models for Banks Providing Digital Emerging Markets Financial Services in Africa APRIL 2020 APRIL 2019 Note 81: Artificial Intelligence in the Power Sector Note 67: The Case for Responsible Investing in Digital Financial Services MARCH 2020 Note 80: Developing Artificial Intelligence Sustainably: MARCH 2019 Toward a Practical Code of Conduct for Disruptive Note 66: Blended Concessional Finance: Governance Matters Technologies for Impact Note 80a: IFC Technology Code of Conduct—Progression Note 65: Natural Gas and the Clean Energy Transition Matrix—Public Draft—Addendum to Note 80 FEBRUARY 2019 FEBRUARY 2020 Note 64: Institutional Investing: A New Investor Forum Note 79: Accelerating Digital Connectivity Through and Growing Interest in Sustainable Emerging Markets Infrastructure Sharing Investments Note 78: Artificial Intelligence and the Future for Smart JANUARY 2019 Homes Note 63: Blockchain and Associated Legal Issues for Emerging Markets JANUARY 2020 Note 77: Creating Domestic Capital Markets in Developing Note 62: Service Performance Guarantees for Public Utilities Countries: Perspectives from Market Participants and Beyond—An Innovation with Potential to Attract Investors to Emerging Markets DECEMBER 2019 Note 76: Artificial Intelligence and 5G Mobile Technology Can NOVEMBER 2018 Drive Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets Note 61: Using Blockchain to Enable Cleaner, Modern Energy Systems in Emerging Markets NOVEMBER 2019 Note 75: How Artificial Intelligence is Making Transport Safer, Note 60: Blended Concessional Finance: Scaling Up Private Cleaner, More Reliable and Efficient in Emerging Markets Investment in Lower-Income Countries OCTOBER 2019 OCTOBER 2018 Note 74: Bridging the Trust Gap: Blockchain’s Potential to Note 59: How a Know-Your-Customer Utility Could Increase Restore Trust in Artificial Intelligence in Support of New Access to Financial Services in Emerging Markets Business Models Note 58: Competition Works: Driving Microfinance Note 73: Closing the SDG Financing Gap—Trends and Data Institutions to Reach Lower-Income People and the Unbanked in Peru SEPTEMBER 2019 Note 72: Blended Concessional Finance: The Rise of SEPTEMBER 2018 Returnable Capital Contributions Note 57: Blockchain Governance and Regulation as an Enabler for Market Creation in Emerging Markets Note 71: Artificial Intelligence: Investment Trends and Selected Industry Uses JULY 2018 Note 56: A Practical Tool to Create Economic Opportunity AUGUST 2019 for Low-Income Communities Note 70: How Insurtech Can Close the Protection Gap in Emerging Markets JUNE 2018 Note 55: Peru’s Works for Taxes Scheme: An Innovative JULY 2019 Solution to Accelerate Private Provision of Infrastructure Note 69: The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Supporting Investment Development in Emerging Markets 7 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. 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