Photo credit: Andrea Borgarello, WorldBank FLAGSHIP REPORT | OCTOBER 2023 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL By Aline Coudouel, Silvia Fuselli and Mira Saidi ABOUT THE SAHEL ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION TRUST FUND The Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program (SASPP) is funded by a multi-donor trust fund (MDTF) with contributions from the Denmark Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs; the Agence Française de Développement (AFD); the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ); and the United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO). Its objective is to support six Sahelian countries—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal in building ASP systems primarily to help vulnerable households adapt to the impacts of climate change but also to other covariate shocks. The SASPP is managed by the Social Protection and Jobs unit of the West-Central Africa regional department of the World Bank. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Foreword....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Acknowledgements............................................................................................................................................................................. 5 Authors.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Executive Summary......................................................................................................................................................... 7 Overall Assessment........................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Arrangements and Partnerships...........................................................................................................................................................12 Data and Information Systems..............................................................................................................................................................13 Programs and Delivery Systems..........................................................................................................................................................14 Finance.......................................................................................................................................................................................................15 Abbreviations................................................................................................................................................................... 16 List of Tables.................................................................................................................................................................... 17 List of Figures.................................................................................................................................................................. 17 List of Boxes..................................................................................................................................................................... 18 1. Introduction............................................................................................................................................................................................19 1.1 The Sahel: Region at the Intersection of Overlapping Shocks................................................................................................19 1.2 Adaptive Social Protection..............................................................................................................................................................21 1.3 Methodology.......................................................................................................................................................................................25 2. Progress on the Four Building Blocks for ASP: A Mixed Picture.............................................................................................27 2.1 Overview...............................................................................................................................................................................................27 2.2 Institutional Arrangements and Partnerships: Key Findings..................................................................................................28 2.3 Data and Information Systems: Key Findings............................................................................................................................34 2.4 Programs and Delivery Systems: Key Findings.........................................................................................................................42 2.5 Finance: Key Findings......................................................................................................................................................................50 3. Conclusions and Recommendations......................................................................................................................................... 56 Appendix A: Social Protection Stress Test Tool and its Application in the Sahel...................................................... 62 References........................................................................................................................................................................ 72 EndNotes.......................................................................................................................................................................... 75 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 3 Foreword FOREWORD The Stress Testing Adaptive Social Protection Systems in the Sahel report examines the existing social protection systems in the Sahel and identifies elements that need strengthening to address the needs in The Stress Testing Adaptive Social Protection Systems in the Sahel report examines the existing social the region. The protection work in systems for thethis report Sahel began during and identifies elements the thatCOVID-19 pandemic, need strengthening which to address tested the needsthein capacity of the region.social the adaptive The work protection systems for this report in the began during Sahel countries. the COVID-19 The tested pandemic, which economic consequences the capacity of the of the pandemic were adaptive extensive, social particularly protection systems for vulnerable in the Sahel countries. Theand poor households economic consequencesin of the Sahel, and reversed the pandemic years of poverty reduction efforts. While the Sahel countries are showing signs of economic were extensive, particularly for vulnerable and poor households in the Sahel, and reversed years of poverty recovery from the pandemic, they continue to face a multitude of ongoing crises, including global challenges, such as the reduction efforts. While the Sahel countries are showing signs of economic recovery from the pandemic, theyand inflation continue multitude to face afallout economic of ongoing from crises, the war inincluding Ukraine, andchallenges, global localizedsuch as the shocks inflation linked toandinsecurity and economic fallout from the war in Ukraine, and localized shocks linked to insecurity and worsening climate worsening climate — the Sahel recently experienced very severe droughts and food insecurity, alongside — the Sahel recently experienced very severe droughts and food insecurity, alongside more frequent and frequent more severe and severe flooding. flooding. increasingly TheseThese increasingly challenging contexts challenging contexts call call for for effective effective adaptive adaptive social protectionsocial protection (ASP) tools (ASP) tools and and strategies. strategies. ASP ASP is a is a critical critical tool tool to reach to reach the World Bank’s thegoalWorld Bank’s of a world goal free of of on poverty a world a livable free of Indeed, planet. poverty to on a livable planet. Indeed, face worsening toclimate face change, worsening climate increasingly change, frequent increasingly climate-related shocks,frequent and economic climate-related shocks from an shocks, and economic shocks from an ever more globalized world, it is essential to have systems ever more globalized world, it is essential to have systems in place that can build the resilience in place of the that can build poorest the resilience of the poorest and most vulnerable households ahead of shocks, as well as protect them, and most vulnerable households ahead of shocks, as well as protect them, their productive investments, and their human their productive capital from the investments, and negative impacts of their human shocks. capital from the negative impacts of shocks. In recent years, the Sahel countries, with the support of the World Bank and the Sahel Adaptive Social In recent years, the Sahel countries, with the support of the World Bank and the Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program (SASPP), have begun to invest in adaptive social protection systems. Governments have Protection Program established safety nethave (SASPP), national begun programs, whichto invest offer in support regular adaptive social to some protection of the systems. poorest segments Governments of the established have population. ASP national safety systems were net programs, designed which for these programs offerup, to scale regular support in coordination withto some of the poorest humanitarian segments of the partners, population. to respond ASP to shocks systems such were designed as food insecurity for these and pandemics. Whileprograms their reachto andscale scaleup, in coordination remain with humanitarian partners, limited, their successes to are not respond to be minimized, shocks to and some such as food successful insecurity elements and have inspired pandemics. countries While their other reach and scale remain limited, their successes are not to be minimized, and some successful elements in Africa and beyond. have inspired other countries in Africa and beyond. This report draws lessons from the ASP trajectory in the Sahel. It uses the stress test methodology, designed by the World Bank, to assess the ability of social protection systems to respond to shocks. The report provides This report draws lessons from the ASP trajectory in the Sahel. It uses the stress test methodology, a rich overview of the existing systems in the Sahel along the four building blocks of ASP. First, it examines designed by the World Bank, to assess the ability of social protection systems to respond to shocks. The the institutional arrangements for ASP and shock response in the region, and explores linkages across report provides a rich overview government agencies of partners, and external whichsystems the existing in the role play an important Sahel along theto in responding four building shocks. Second,blocks of ASP. itprovides First, it examines the institutional an overview arrangements of the data and information systemsfor ASP and in the shock Sahel response countries, in a including the region, review of theand explores linkages across government achievements agencies in building social and registries, external which partners, can be leveraged bywhich multipleplay anfor actors important role more efficient andin responding to shocks. Second, effective it provides interventions. an Third, the overview report focuses on the data ofprograms andand information delivery systems in systems — highlighting the Sahel countries, innovations including a review of the achievements in building social registries, which can be leveraged by multiple in each country along the delivery chain. Finally, it reviews the limited progress in developing ASP financing actors for more efficient mechanisms. Building onand effective the progress interventions. and Third, limitations, the report the report concludes with afocuses on programs and delivery set of recommendations for governments, donors, and implementing partners to further invest in ASP. systems — highlighting innovations in each country along the delivery chain. Finally, it reviews the limited progress in developing ASP financing mechanisms. Building on the progress and limitations, the report We welcome the Stress Testing Adaptive Social Protection Systems in the Sahel report as an important concludes with a set of recommendations for governments, donors, and implementing partners to further milestone in the development of ASP systems in the region and beyond. invest in ASP. We welcome the Stress Testing Adaptive Social Ousmane Diagana,Systems in the Sahel report as an important Protection Regional Vice President for Western milestone in the development of ASP systems in the region and Central Africa, World Bank and beyond. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This Stress Testing Adaptive Social Protection Systems in the Sahel Report builds on sustained dialogue with the governments of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal on the development of national Adaptive Social Protection systems. The authors are grateful to the participants in the workshops organized in the six countries between October 2021 and September 2022 to apply the Social Protection Stress Test Tool. The authors wish to extend particular thanks to the government officials in all six countries and colleagues from the World Food Programme (WFP) teams in Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) teams in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. The authors are most grateful to Edward Archibald for his role in distilling the insights from the six national reports. He masterfully identified the report’s key findings from the region’s experience to date and helped to shape the report’s recommendations for governments, donors and implementing partners. The authors are also thankful to colleagues in the World Bank for their contributions to the report, including Luis Alberro Encinas, Moukenet Azoukalne, Christian Bodewig, Stephanie Brunelin, Geoffrey Baeumlin, Silvia Coni, Dieynaba Diallo, Sebastian Geschwind, Rebekka E. Grun, Anne Hilger, Djie Sita, Diane Antoinette Kiemde Traore, Julian Koschorke, Matthieu Lefebvre, Felix Lung, Mahamane Maliki Amadou, Franck Müller, Celine Mbaipeur Nenodji, Snjezana Plevko, Christophe Rockmore, Mahamane Mourtala Sani, Samanta Sarria Capape, Dame Seck Thiam, Kalilou Sylla, and Claudia Zambra Taibo. The authors are also grateful to Corinna Kreidler for reviewing the draft and providing detailed guidance. The study was edited by Sarah Patella and typeset by Rodolphe Müller. This study was carried out under the Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program (SASPP), and the authors are grateful to the SASPP donors — the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), the Agence Française de Développement (French Development Agency, AFD), the Denmark Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs (DANIDA), the United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) — and to Boutheina Guermazi and Mohammed Dalil Essakali of the World Bank Africa Regional Integration Unit, which guides the SASPP. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 5 AUTHORS Aline Coudouel is a Lead Economist in the West and Central Africa Unit of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice at the World Bank. She currently works as the Manager of the Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program (SASPP). Her technical and operational expertise covers the different pillars of social protection – social assistance, social insurance, and labor markets — as well as human development, gender, and poverty reduction more broadly. Her experience spans multiple regions, with a particular focus on Latin America (Colombia, Dominican Republic, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Panama), Africa (Guinea, Malawi, Mauritania, Senegal, and the Sahel region), South Asia (Bangladesh and Nepal), and Europe and Central Asia (Uzbekistan). Earlier in her career, Aline worked at the UNICEF Innocenti Research Center, with a focus on women and children in Central Asia and Europe. Aline holds a PhD in economics from the European University Institute in Florence, Italy. Silvia Fuselli is an Extended Term Consultant in the West and Central Africa Unit of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice at the World Bank. She has extensive experience on adaptations to the design, delivery, and implementation of social safety nets in contexts of fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV). Her operational experience extends to various countries in the Central African and Sahel region, particularly the Central African Republic, Senegal, and Somalia. Earlier in her career, Silvia worked at a nongovernmental organization that is dedicated to expanding access to education for Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Silvia is a Ph.D. Candidate at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). She holds an M.A. in International Relations and Economics from SAIS and an M.A. in International Relations and Diplomacy from the University of Bologna, Italy. Mira Saidi is a Social Protection Specialist in the West and Central Africa Unit of the Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice at the World Bank. She has worked extensively on issues related to the design and implementation of Adaptive Social Protection systems and programs. Her operational experience extends across the Sahel and West Africa. Mira also leads work on social protection in the context of FCV countries and contributed to the development of the Adaptive Social Protection Stress Test Tool. Earlier in her career, Mira worked across the Middle East on issues pertaining to safety nets and jobs. Mira holds an MSc in Development Studies from the London School of Economics and an MPP from the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Sahel region of Africa faces multiple crises, which further doing so, they also protect individual well-being and human capital compound structural economic and human development accumulation from the negative and long-lasting impacts of shocks. challenges. The Sahel is one of the world’s poorest regions and During times of need, different approaches can be adopted to displays some of the lowest levels of human capital globally. ensure that poor and vulnerable shock-affected households are Violence and insecurity in the Sahel have significantly increased in effectively reached. For example, small adjustments can be made the past decade, with several countries experiencing active armed to routine social protection programs to ensure the continuity of conflict and unrest. The impacts of climate change compound assistance during times of shocks; vertical expansions can be existing vulnerabilities and risks. Due to its high exposure and low implemented, to temporarily increase the benefit value or duration coping capacity, the Sahel is among the world’s most vulnerable of an existing program for some or all current beneficiaries (figure regions to climate change and hazards, such as drought, floods, O.1) ; and horizontal expansions can be designed, to temporarily heatwaves, and crop pests. Finally, the external shocks of the expand coverage to new households affected by a shock (either COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine have impacted the new or existing programs). Sahel, eroding purchasing power and aggravating poverty. These multiple crises have resulted in a significant deterioration of food and nutrition security in the region, and more than 13 million people were estimated to have faced severe food insecurity during the 2022 lean season — one of the worst crises in the last decade. Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) plays a critical role in preventing or mitigating the negative impacts of shocks and boosting resilience for long-term development. ASP has emerged as a flexible and dynamic approach to social protection during the past decade. It combines and exploits synergies between social protection, disaster risk management (DRM), and climate change adaptation. This enables social protection to be leveraged as an effective tool to reduce household vulnerability to covariate shocks, such as economic downturns, natural disasters, conflict and violence, forced displacement, and health emergencies, including the recent COVID-19 pandemic. By providing tailored, targeted, and timely support during, or in the aftermath of a crisis, ASP enables poor and vulnerable households to meet their basic needs in the short term, while strengthening their resilience in the medium and longer term by reducing negative coping strategies (such as lowering food consumption, selling productive assets, or taking children out of school, and by protecting their human capital and livelihoods). ASP also promotes livelihoods, by increasing productivity and promoting diversification, which are central to resilience to future shocks and sustained poverty reduction. ASP comprises a suite of interventions that can be ‘flexed’ and layered before, during, and after a shock strikes. ASP interventions include — but are not limited to — cash transfer programs, public works and cash-for-work programs, livelihood support programs, and productive and economic inclusion programs. These programs are designed to provide poor and vulnerable households with targeted and direct support and access to socioeconomic opportunities to offer a way out of poverty. In Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 7 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FIGURE O.1: Social Safety Net Programs, the adaptiveness and scalability of social protection systems in Vertical and Horizontal Expansion response to shocks, and to identify priority areas for improvement (Box O.1, figure BO.1.1, and figure BO1.2). This report seeks to capture BENEFIT AMOUNT the developments that took place since the test was applied, though some of these may not be fully reflected in this report. BOX O.1: WHAT IS ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION? Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) helps to build the resilience of poor and vulnerable households by investing in their capacity to prepare for, cope with, and adapt to shocks, thus ensuring that they do not fall deeper into poverty. The ASP approach integrates basic social protection with disaster risk management (DRM) and adaptation to climate change. Through its four building blocks — Programs and Delivery Source: Bowen et al. 2020 Systems, Data and Information, Financing, and Institutional Arrangements and Partnerships — ASP has emerged as The Sahel’s vulnerability and exposure to shocks and crises is a critical tool to help poor and vulnerable households and set to increase with accelerating climate change, calling for a communities become more resilient to shocks and stresses, shift from often externally funded, ad hoc responses toward especially to the impacts of climate change. It achieves this by building sustainable, government-led systems. In the past, providing a combination of cash transfers and assistance to the response to shocks and crises predominantly relied on a strengthen knowledge and behavioral change for the promotion humanitarian approach and with year-to-year ad hoc programs. of sustainable and diversified livelihood opportunities. For example, food insecurity resulting from the annual lean season was largely addressed through externally funded humanitarian The four building blocks include a range of dimensions that aid. While humanitarian aid continues to play an important role are critical for ASP to successfully provide a basis for shock- in navigating food security shocks, countries in the Sahel are response. They include the following technical, financial, and increasingly putting forward government-led ASP interventions and political dimensions : are beginning to invest in systems. Although ASP has been shown to be an effective tool in responding to the region’s compounding ⊲ Institutional Arrangements and Partnerships. To support challenges, leveraging its full potential requires government-led government leadership in the coordination of actors, based national systems that can operate at scale — with a suite of national on the clear articulation of roles and responsibilities. programs at scale, mature information systems, readily budgeted ⊲ Data and Information. To ensure that the design and and pre-positioned finance, and clear institutional arrangements. implementation of ASP programs are informed by The principle of a systems approach permeates the four pillars information on household vulnerability to shocks and of the ASP framework, and the latent–advanced framework of their capacity to cope and recover, including through the Social Protection Stress Test Tool is framed around a gradual dynamic social registries. strengthening of national systems. ⊲ Programs and Delivery Systems. To promote programs and delivery systems that are responsive to shocks, in that Over the past decade, ASP has been on a remarkable trajectory they have anticipated and planned for shocks. in the Sahel, and this is an appropriate time to take stock of the ⊲ Finance. To establish risk financing strategies that promote situation. This report provides an overview of the state of ASP proactive response planning, enable the availability of across six Sahelian countries — Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, funding in case of a shock, and limit delays in response. Niger, and Senegal — as well as a set of recommendations for actions to strengthen the adaptiveness and responsiveness of existing systems to shocks. This report leverages the application of the Social Protection Stress Test Tool in the six countries between October 2021 and September 2022. The Social Protection Stress Test Tool builds on the four pillars of the ASP framework to assess STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FIGURE BO.1.1: How Can ASP Help? Source: Adapted from World Bank 2020a FIGURE BO.1.2 : The Four Building Blocks for Putting ASP Systems in Place Source: Adapted from World Bank 2020a STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OVERALL ASSESSMENT Overall, when considering their starting point nearly a decade Progress is not uniform across all countries or building blocks ago, each of the Sahel countries has made significant progress (figure O.2). All countries have either established a social registry toward establishing some of the key ASP building blocks. All or the foundations of a social registry. However, the static countries have successfully laid the foundations for ASP systems (nondynamic) approach to data collection and the registries’ and have the capacity to provide regular cash transfers to the poor limited coverage in some countries result in potentially obsolete and to respond to some shocks (especially in response to annual or incomplete data and make it difficult for countries to identify food insecurity), albeit with some delays and limited coverage. The poor and vulnerable households affected by shocks. The limited Sahel countries are also piloting innovative approaches, related to coverage of social safety nets remains a critical constraint to the Early Warning Systems (EWS), program design, program triggers, adoption of a more mature approach to ASP in four of the assessed and payments. The greatest advances have been observed in countries—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger. Similarly, the low Mauritania and Senegal — particularly on the Data and Information penetration of digital payment systems hinders the capacity of and Programs and Delivery Systems building blocks of the ASP countries to adopt modern payment systems. Finally, the Finance framework. In this respect, Senegal is the only country whose building block has made the least progress across all countries. system has achieved an “emerging” level of development. The This is due in part to a strong reliance on international assistance. coverage of routine social safety nets in these two countries is The low ratings in the Finance building block also point to a need now nationwide and provides a strong foundation for the launch for other components of the system to be in place, with sufficient of shock-responses. This is illustrated by the response to the coverage and delivery capacity, before countries can focus on the COVID-19 pandemic in Mauritania, which scaled up its safety net mobilization and coordination of financing. programs to 210,000 households (the routine safety net program had 80,000 beneficiary households at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic). In Niger, despite its lower foundational coverage, cash transfer programs were scaled up to reach 375,000 households in response to COVID-19 in 2021. Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 10 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FIGURE O.2: Summary of Stress Test Assessment Source: Original figure for this publication. Overall, despite the existence of solid foundations and firm Summary present the findings and overarching recommendations governmental commitment to ASP, significant progress needs that are emerging from the report for each of the four building to be made by all countries for the ASP agenda to be effectively blocks of ASP — Institutional Arrangements and Partnerships, Data advanced. In each country, a concerted and carefully sequenced and Information, Programs and Delivery Systems, and Finance. plan of action needs to be applied across building blocks. The main report provides additional details and overarching Operationalization must be prioritized, because systems, policies, recommendations, as well as specific recommendations for or delivery mechanisms have frequently been established but not governments and for donors and implementing partners. yet fully implemented. The following sections of this Executive Photo credit: From WorldBank Note: Figure based on assessments completed in October 2021 in Burkina Faso; September 2022 in Chad; June 2022 in Mali; November 2021 in Mauritania; May 2022 in Niger; and January 2022 in Senegal. Progress realized since these assessments are reflected in the text. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 11 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS AND PARTNERSHIPS Countries in the Sahel are incorporating ASP principles in their remains limited. Strong collaboration between governments national social protection policies and are periodically preparing and nongovernmental partners is essential to avoid duplication, contingency plans to guide their responses to food insecurity. inefficiencies, and tensions, and is particularly critical in the Sahel, All Sahel countries have national social protection policies, and where fiscal spaces are constrained. Government leadership most governments are taking steps to incorporate the core ASP is essential to ensuring the alignment of humanitarian actors principles into these frameworks. In the Sahel, the main instruments with national social protection systems and strengthening this for ASP, and shock-responses more generally, are country-level leadership should be a key objective of nongovernmental partners response plans. In many instances, the realization of commitments and those financing their interventions. to shock responsiveness in social protection policies and response plans have been hindered by financing challenges. RECOMMENDATIONS In most countries in the Sahel, the institutional landscape for ASP lacks strong anchoring, clear roles, and robust coordination ⊲ Incorporate shock-response functions and instruments mechanisms for government agencies and external partners into national social protection strategies and include involved in shock or disaster risk management. Coordination ASP programs as response vehicles in national shock- within the ASP sector remains complex, and coordination between response plans. the agencies that are responsible for routine safety nets, rapid-onset shocks and food insecurity remains weak. Some countries, such ⊲ Define roles and responsibilities and establish as Mauritania, are making progress toward creating institutional coordination mechanisms among a broader range of links between social protection and food security actors, but ASP actors and with other governmental and non- unclear roles and responsibilities among governmental actor’s governmental DRM actors. limit progress. ⊲ Strengthen the government leadership and convening Government leadership and the capacity to align partners is role on ASP and promote the alignment or integration essential but remains constrained. In the Sahel, nongovernmental of financial and operational partners’ support within partners will continue to play a central role in the ASP agenda national systems. for mobilizing financial resources and, in some fragile contexts, for implementing shock-response interventions. While there are emerging examples of partners aligning with national systems and priorities, as opposed to operating parallel systems, coordination Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 12 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY DATA AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS A strong buy-in for social registries has translated to their While Sahel countries all have EWS for food security, their progressive expansion across the region, though many countries institutionalization and ability to provide timely and accurate are yet to cover all geographic areas and households vulnerable predictions remain limited. EWS are critical inputs for the design to shocks. One of the most active areas of progress on ASP in and timeliness of shock-responses. Countries in the Sahel all have the region is the establishment of social registries. In Burkina early warning tools that focus on food insecurity, though they Faso, Mali, Chad and Niger, the ability of social registries to inform face several technical financial and capacity challenges. Progress shock-response is at times limited by incomplete geographic is being made toward improving data quality and integrating a coverage and outdated information. Registries also typically wider range of outcomes and covariate shocks, in addition to the focus on households that are chronically poor or food-insecure current focus on food insecurity. Some countries in the region are and are less able to identify households who are at risk but not in piloting the use of preagreed rules, based on information from chronic poverty or food insecurity. Increasing the registration of early warning mechanisms, to trigger or guide the decision to at-risk populations in all regions is critical to preparing a system launch responses. for shocks, however numerous operational challenges remain. Maintaining updated social registries is a challenge in the Sahel, RECOMMENDATIONS but this is essential for their use in shock-response. Currently, countries in the region collect information on households through ⊲ Expand the coverage of social registries to all waves of widescale data collection, which limits their ability to geographic areas and all households vulnerable to maintain current data. Adopting dynamic (or on-demand) inclusion shocks, to ensure they can be leveraged for shock- methods, such as putting in place permanent local offices with response. strong local staff, or exploring modular data structures, could help ensure that data is adequately updated. While not all on- ⊲ Operationalize protocols to regularly update social demand approaches are feasible in all Sahelian contexts, several registry data, assessing the feasibility of combining options exist. administrator-driven methods, on-demand intake modalities, and the use of administrative records Social registries are not fully integrated or leveraged in the through interoperability. region, which limits the potential of their increased efficiency and timeliness during shock-response. In the Sahel, social ⊲ Promote the use of social registry data among a registries are seldom integrated into the broader ecosystem of range of actors by ensuring its quality and relevance, existing information systems of different sectors or actors, with and establishing adequate data privacy and sharing the exception of Mauritania, whose system is interoperable with protocols. other government-held databases. In addition to coverage and quality issues, bottlenecks related to the lack of unique identifier, ⊲ Enhance government ownership, institutionalization, data privacy and data-sharing are key constraints to the broader and functionality of EWS to ensure they inform the leveraging of social registries by multiple actors. Harnessing the elaboration of national response plans and guide full potential of the social registry ecosystem requires political program design. leadership, institutionalization, and coordination mechanisms. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 13 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PROGRAMS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS In the Sahel, routine social safety net programs are boosting more systematic to ensure the participation of other vulnerable the resilience of households, and their capacity to cope with groups. Finally, the inclusion of forcibly displaced population shocks and provide a foundation for ASP, though their coverage groups in the Sahel remains a challenge, though some countries remains limited. All countries in the region have developed routine have begun to address this issue. social protection programs, however their coverage greatly varies across contexts. In the Sahel, routine social safety net programs RECOMMENDATIONS have shown their ability to build the resilience of households to shocks, increase their productivity, and diversify their livelihoods. ⊲ Enhance the coverage of routine safety net programs Routine social safety net programs and their delivery systems to include all chronically poor and vulnerable have provided a platform on which shock-response interventions households and strengthen the resilience-building have been deployed. properties of programs. Delivery systems are not yet ready to be harnessed for shock- ⊲ Enhance government delivery systems so they can response in all countries of the Sahel, which hinders the ability perform their functions in times of shock and, as part of governments in the region to respond in a timely and cost- of the national response plans, clarify ahead of shocks effective manner. Prior planning and preparedness actions are how they will be used. critical for timely responses to shocks. Parts of the delivery systems do not have the capacity to fully support shock-responses, which ⊲ Enhance payment mechanisms to improve timeliness often puts them under additional pressure, due to the surge and accountability, and ensure inclusion. in activities to identify beneficiaries, put in place the payment instruments, ensure grievance management, and so on. It is ⊲ Address the constraints faced by women, forcibly critical to establish mechanisms to scale up and pre-position the displaced households, and other vulnerable groups required resources for shock-responses. to clarify institutional responsibilities and embed operational solutions in the design and procedures of Payments across the Sahel can be scaled up in times of shock, but regular and shock-response programs. face challenges to their timely delivery through cash and digital modalities. Cash in hand is still the main payment mechanism in most routine safety net programs in the Sahel, which limits the ability of programs to scale-up in a timely manner in response to shocks. In the region, there has been progress toward establishing or piloting digital payment systems, as in Burkina Faso, Chad, and Mauritania, which can help to promote timely shock-responses. However, switching to digital payments and leveraging them for shock-response is challenging in the Sahel, particularly outside of urban areas. Regardless of the technology that is adopted, the rigidity of contracts and procurement procedures can limit the ability of systems to respond to shocks. Inclusion challenges persist in the Sahel and need to be addressed before shocks, so that solutions can be effectively implemented in the context of shock-responses. Most routine social safety net programs have deliberately included a large share of women among their beneficiaries, but gender responsiveness is harder to achieve during horizontal expansions. There are opportunities to develop stronger strategies to address the risks faced by women, which need to be capitalized during the early design phases. Similarly, the design of ASP programs must be Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 14 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY FINANCE In the Sahel, the mobilization of financing for shock-response is funds. Some countries also have contingency instruments in place, typically ad hoc and piecemeal, which can be costly and create but these frequently focus on food distribution rather than on cash significant delays. Except for Mauritania, countries in the region transfers made through ASP programs. have not put in place ex ante, or prearranged, financing instruments for ASP. More generally, no countries in the region have shock- Financing regular and shock-response ASP programs in the response financing strategies in place. Because of limited ex ante Sahel will require a mix of domestic and international funding financing, shock-responses are typically financed with significant for the foreseeable future. All Sahel countries, especially the four delays, mostly through ex post international financing or domestic central Sahelian countries, are dependent on external support budget reallocation. The development of prearranged financing to respond to humanitarian needs, which is unlikely to change in for ASP is constrained by the nascent nature of ASP systems in the short to medium term. Disaster risk financing instruments and most Sahelian countries. strategies in the Sahel should explicitly account for continued donor contributions. Some countries are developing instruments that When broadening the notion of financing to that of routine receive contributions from government and donors, which could safety net programs, some countries display greater government form the basis for broader donor-inclusive financing approaches. contributions. The stress test results presented above only reflect financing for shock responses. When also considering routine RECOMMENDATIONS safety net programs, which are a critical base for shock-responses, a different picture emerges. Specifically, in Senegal, transfers of ⊲ Identify options to establish prearranged financing the regular safety net program, which is national in coverage, are instruments for shock-response programs using social fully financed by the national budget. Similarly, in Mauritania, the protection mechanisms. share of government financing for the routine national program is significant, and in Burkina Faso, plans anticipate a notable national ⊲ Focus on instruments that are commensurate with the government contribution. risk profile of the Sahel and ensure that contingency instruments are set up to support social protection To date, most risk financing instruments adopted in the Sahel shock-response programs. have been insurance-based, though reserve instruments may be more adapted to the region’s risk profile. Some countries have ⊲ Put in place financial instruments for shock-response adopted sovereign drought insurance policies, but these are not using ASP mechanisms that enable government and specifically earmarked for ASP. Given the climate vulnerability donor contributions, thereby boosting the leadership of profile of the Sahel, policy makers should consider alternative governments and coordination of partners. disaster risk financing instruments to insurance, such as reserve Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 15 ABBREVIATIONS ADRiFi FCDO PIP Africa Disaster Risk Financing United Kingdom Foreign, Poverty and Inequality Programme Commonwealth and Platform Development Office AFD QR Agence Française de FCV Quick Response [code] Développement (French Fragility, conflict, and Development Agency) violence SAIS School of Advanced AfDB FIFI International Studies [Johns African Development Bank Food Insecurity Forecast Hopkins University] Interface ARC SASPP African Risk Capacity FSN Sahel Adaptive Social Fond de Solidarité Protection Program ASP Nationale (National Adaptive Social Protection Solidarity Fund) UN United Nations BMZ FNRCAN German Federal Ministry for Fond National de Réponse UNDRR Economic Cooperation and aux Crises Alimentaires et United Nations Office for Development Nutritionnelles (National Disaster Risk Reduction Food and Nutrition Crises DANIDA Response Fund) UNHCR Denmark Royal Ministry of United Nations High Foreign Affairs GDP Commissioner for Refugees Gross Domestic Product DCAN UNICEF Dispositif N ational de IDA United Nations Children’s Prévention d’Alerte Précoce International Development Funds et de Réponse aux Chocs Association d’Insécurité Alimentaire et WFP Nutritionnelle (National Early IMF World Food Programme Warning and Shock Response International Monetary System) Fund DGPSN IPC Délégation Générale à Integrated Food Security la Protection Sociale et Phase Classification à la Solidarité Nationale (General Delegation to Social ISAS Protection and National Integrated Social Solidarity) Assistance Service Information System DRM Disaster Risk Management NGO nongovernmental EWS organization Early Warning Systems STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 16 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 1.1: KEY ASP BUILDING BLOCKS................................................................................................................................................................ 24 TABLE 1.2: SOCIAL PROTECTION STRESS TEST TOOL SCORING SCALE................................................................................................ 26 TABLE 3.1: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS AND PARTNERSHIPS BUILDING BLOCK..... 57 TABLE 3.2: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DATA AND INFORMATION BUILDING BLOCK............................................................... 58 TABLE 3.3: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE PROGRAMS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS BUILDING BLOCK....................................... 59-60 TABLE 3.4: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE FINANCE BUILDING BLOCK................................................................................................ 61 TABLE A.1: SOCIAL PROTECTION STRESS TEST WORKSHOP DETAILS.................................................................................................... 62 TABLE A.2: SOCIAL PROTECTION STRESS TEST TOOL QUESTIONNAIRE.............................................................................................. 63-71 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE O.1: SOCIAL SAFETY NET PROGRAMS, VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL EXPANSION........................................................... 8 FIGURE O.2: SUMMARY OF STRESS TEST ASSESSMENT............................................................................................................................. 9 FIGURE BO.1.1: HOW CAN ASP HELP?................................................................................................................................................................... 9 FIGURE BO1.2: THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR PUTTING ASP SYSTEMS IN PLACE.................................................................... 11 FIGURE 1.1: EVOLUTION OF AFRICA’S MILITANT ISLAMIC GROUPS, 2019–2022................................................................................. 19 FIGURE 1.2: FOOD AND NUTRITION INSECURITY, CURRENT AND PROJECTED.................................................................................. 20 FIGURE 1.3: THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR PUTTING IN PLACE ASP SYSTEMS.......................................................................... 21 FIGURE B1.1.1: HOW CAN ASP HELP?..................................................................................................................................................................... 23 FIGURE B1.2.1: SOCIAL SAFETY NET PROGRAMS, VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL EXPANSION...................................................... 23 FIGURE 2.1: SUMMARY OF STRESS TEST ASSESSMENT............................................................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 2.2: OVERVIEW OF THE INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS AND PARTNERSHIPS BUILDING BLOCK......................... 29 FIGURE 2.3: OVERVIEW OF THE DATA AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS BUILDING BLOCK................................................................ 33 FIGURE 2.4: OVERVIEW OF THE PROGRAMS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS BUILDING BLOCK............................................................ 35 FIGURE 2.5: IMPACTS OF SOCIAL SAFETY NETS IN THE SAHEL................................................................................................................ 43 FIGURE 2.6: DELIVERY CHAIN FOR SOCIAL PROTECTION PROGRAMS.................................................................................................. 45 FIGURE 2.7: OVERVIEW OF THE FINANCE BUILDING BLOCK...................................................................................................................... 47 FIGURE B2.4.1: LEVEL OF CONTENTION IN PROGRAM ELEMENTS........................................................................................................... 52 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 17 LIST OF BOXES BOX O.1: WHAT IS ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION?............................................................................................................................................ 8 BOX 1.1: WHAT IS ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION?.............................................................................................................................................. 21 BOX 1.2: OPTIONS TO REACH POOR AND VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS AFFECTED BY SHOCKS...................................................... 22-23 BOX 2.1: WHAT IS THE FOCUS OF THE INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS AND PARTNERSHIPS BUILDING BLOCK?.................. 28 BOX 2.2: WHAT ARE CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR ASP?....................................................................................................................................... 30 BOX 2.3: THREE KEY DIMENSIONS FOR EFFECTIVE COORDINATION ON ASP........................................................................................... 31 BOX 2.4: WHAT HAS WORKED FOR ALIGNMENT AND CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NATIONAL SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS AND HUMANITARIAN AID IN THE SAHEL?........................................................................................................................... 33 BOX 2.5: WHAT IS THE FOCUS OF THE DATA AND INFORMATION SYSTEMS BUILDING BLOCK?....................................................... 34-35 BOX 2.6: THE POTENTIAL USE OF SOCIAL REGISTRIES FOR SHOCK-RESPONSE..................................................................................... 36 BOX 2.7: HOW REGISTRATION ERRORS IN MALAWI CAUSED DELAYS IN PROVIDING SHOCK RESPONSE..................................... 37 BOX 2.8: TOGO’S SUPPORT TO INFORMAL WORKERS DURING THE COVID-19 CRISIS........................................................................... 38 BOX 2.9: RANGE OF USERS OF SOCIAL REGISTRIES IN MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL............................................................................. 39 BOX 2.10: THE CADRE HARMONISÉ............................................................................................................................................................................. 40-41 BOX 2.11: AN INNOVATIVE APPROACH TO REFORM THE EARLY WARNING TOOL IN MAURITANIA..................................................... 41 BOX 2.12: WHAT IS THE FOCUS OF THE PROGRAMS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS BUILDING BLOCK?.................................................. 43 BOX 2.13: SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS ARE CRITICAL FOR TIMELY RESPONSES, EXPERIENCE FROM COVID-19 CRISIS.... 46 BOX 2.14: DESIGN ELEMENTS TO PROMOTE GENDER INCLUSION AND ENSURE PROGRAM RELEVANCE, EXAMPLES FROM THE SAHEL........................................................................................................................................................................................... 49 BOX 2.15: SUPPORTING REFUGEES AND HOST COMMUNITIES IN CHAD..................................................................................................... 50 BOX 2.16: WHAT IS THE FOCUS OF THE FINANCE BUILDING BLOCK?........................................................................................................... 51 BOX 2.17: THE NEW CONTINGENCY FINANCING FUND IN MAURITANIA....................................................................................................... 52 BOX 2.18: WHAT FOCUS FOR A SHOCK-RESPONSE ASP FINANCING STRATEGY IN THE SAHEL?...................................................... 53 Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 18 1. Introduction would have been if she/he enjoyed complete education and full The Sahel : Region at the Intersec- 1.1 tion of Overlapping Shocks health. This places Sahelian countries among the lowest-ranked countries in the world for human capital (World Bank 2020b).4 The Sahel region of Africa faces significant economic and human Violence and insecurity in the Sahel have significantly increased development challenges. The Sahel is one of the world’s poorest in the past decade, with several countries experiencing active regions. In addition, while in the past decade, the six countries armed conflict and unrest. Since the late 2000s, Burkina Faso, covered by this study — Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Mali, Niger, and the Lake Chad Basin have been the epicenter of a and Senegal — achieved improved macroeconomic performance, complex and deteriorating security crisis, which has involved a wide poverty reduction was not commensurate with economic gains . 1 range of actors, including terrorist organizations, rebels, nonstate Except for Mauritania, the total number of poor people either armed groups, and criminal networks, who disproportionally target stagnated or increased between 2010–2019 in the Sahel, partly 2 civilian populations (figure 1.1) (Lay 2023). This political instability due to high population growth rates (ranging between 2.7 and culminated in a series of coups d’états in Mali (August 2020 and 3.8 percent per year). Poverty is widespread, ranging from an May 2021), Burkina Faso (January 2022 and September 2022), estimated 28.2 percent in Mauritania to 42.5 percent in Chad in and Niger (July 2023) (Barka 2012).5 Violence drives large-scale 2019. These estimates can be even higher when considering displacement and isolates communities, eroding their livelihoods. nonmonetary dimensions of poverty, such as education and As of July 2023, the region was home to over 3 million internally access to basic infrastructure . In terms of human capital, the 3 displaced persons and more than 1 million refugees and asylum region’s challenges are such that on average, a child born in the seekers, representing a sharp rise from nearly 50,000 internally region can expect to be only 35 percent as productive as she/he displaced persons and 231,000 refugees in 2015.6 FIGURE 1.1: Evolution of Africa’s Militant Islamic Groups, 2019–2022 Source : Adapted from African Center for Strategic Studies 2022. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 19 INTRODUCTION The impacts of climate change compound existing vulnerabilities Finally, the external shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and the and risks. The Sahel’s high exposure and low coping capacity war in Ukraine have impacted the Sahel, eroding purchasing make the region one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to power and aggravating poverty. COVID-19 slowed or reversed the climate change and hazards, such as drought, floods, heatwaves, growth trajectory between 2010–2019 across all six countries, with and crop pests (the situation is particularly dire in Chad, Mali, real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth displaying and Niger) (World Bank Group 2022). Since 2000, flooding, negative values, pushing an additional 2.7 million people into arising from heavier and erratic rainfall patterns due to climate extreme poverty (World Bank Group 2022). The war in Ukraine has change has affected an estimated 248,000 people per year, with contributed to rising food and fuel prices. In 2023, food inflation devastating impacts on crops, homes, services, and infrastructure. is still high in the region, at 30.7 percent in July 2022 in Burkina In 2022, heavy floods displaced 90,000 people and disrupted the Faso and 11.8 percent in Mali.9 Chad declared a food emergency livelihoods of over 1,000,000 people in Chad and affected more in 2022, due to poor harvest, insecurity, and the war in Ukraine. than 41,000 people in Mali.7 Between 2016 and 2020, drought caused more than 20 million people to face food insecurity and These multiple crises resulted in a significant deterioration of economic hardship, and placed additional pressure on already food and nutrition security in the Sahel (WFP 2023). The food strained urban infrastructure by driving rural migration (World Bank security and nutrition situation remains alarming across the Sahel Group 2022). As a result of climate change, weather extremes and West Africa. Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger across the Sahel and West Africa will likely intensify over the are estimated to be among the world’s hunger hotspots.10 Across next decades, and temperatures in the Sahel are projected to the six countries, more than 13 million people were estimated to increase by at least 2°C by 2040, an increase that is 1.5 times have faced severe food insecurity in the 2022 lean season, one higher than the rest of the world (IPCC 2022).8 Rising temperatures of the worst records in the last decade (76 percent of the total are expected to accelerate desertification and shorten the rainfall food-insecure people in the Sahel in June to August 2022 were period, causing a reduction of arable land and crop failures and concentrated across Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger).11 Data for overall higher annual drought occurrences and frequency. Shorter March 2023 anticipated a slight reduction in the number of people but heavier rainfalls will also increase flood risks. in food insecurity for the 2023 lean season and was estimated to be 11.9 million people (figure 1.2). FIGURE 1.2: Food and Nutrition Insecurity, Current and Projected LEGENDE Minimale Sous-pression Crise Urgence Famine Non analysé Lac Tchad Zone d'acces limité / inacceccible Source: Cadre Harmonisé 2023. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 20 INTRODUCTION 1.2 Adaptive Social Protection BOX 1.1 : WHAT IS ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION? Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) helps build the resilience Adaptive social protection (ASP) plays a critical role in preventing of poor and vulnerable households by investing in their or mitigating the negative impacts of shocks and boosting capacity to prepare for, cope with, and adapt to shocks, resilience for long-term development. ASP has emerged as a ensuring that they do not fall deeper into poverty. The ASP flexible and dynamic approach to social protection in the past approach integrates basic social protection with disaster risk decade. It combines and exploits synergies between social management (DRM) and adaptation to climate change. protection, disaster risk management (DRM), and climate change adaptation, and enables social protection to be leveraged as an ASP has emerged as a critical tool to help poor and vulnerable effective tool to reduce household vulnerability12 to covariate households and communities become more resilient to shocks shocks, such as economic downturns, natural disasters, conflict and stresses, especially to the impacts of climate change, by and violence, forced displacement, and health emergencies, providing a combination of cash transfers and assistance to including the recent COVID-19 pandemic (box 1.1, figure B1.1.1) strengthen knowledge and behavioral change to promote (Bowen et al. 2020). By providing tailored, targeted, and timely sustainable and diversified livelihood opportunities. support during or in the aftermath of a crisis, ASP enables poor and vulnerable households to meet their basic needs in the short term while strengthening their resilience in the medium and longer term by reducing negative coping strategies, such as lowering food consumption, selling productive assets, or taking children out of school, and by protecting their human capital and livelihoods. ASP also promotes livelihoods, by increasing productivity and promoting diversification, which are central to resilience to future shocks and sustained poverty reduction. Photo credit: From WorldBank FIGURE B1.1.1: How Can ASP Help? Source: Adapted from World Bank 2020a STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 21 INTRODUCTION While shock-response or disaster systems in other parts of the ASP comprises a suite of interventions, which can be ‘flexed’ and world typically focus on specific hazards, systems in the Sahel layered before, during, and after a shock strikes. ASP interventions are built around monitoring and responding to food insecurity. include (but are not limited to) cash transfers programs, public In such systems, the focus is on food insecurity, irrespective of works and cash-for-work programs, livelihood support programs, the shock or hazard which caused it (from conflict to climate- and productive and economic inclusion programs. These programs related and economic shocks). Food insecurity is commonly are designed to provide poor and vulnerable households with associated with drought, and indeed droughts in the region are targeted and direct support and access to livelihood and job expected to intensify with climate change (UNHCR 2021). However, opportunities to provide a path out of extreme poverty and help food insecurity can also be due to other shocks such as locusts, cushion the negative and long-lasting impacts of shocks on pandemics, or political or economic shocks. Sahelian countries individual well-being and human capital formation. In times of generally develop one plan which seeks to address food insecurity, need, different approaches can be adopted to ensure poor and which is also typically complemented by a plan that focuses on vulnerable households affected by shocks can be reached (box addressing rapid-onset events, such as floods or fires. Unless 1.2, figure B1.2.1). specified otherwise, this report primarily focuses on food insecurity, which is the focus in most Sahelian countries. BOX 1.2 : OPTIONS TO REACH POOR AND VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS AFFECTED BY SHOCKS Using existing programs, options to reach poor and vulnerable households affected by shocks include the following : ⊲ Design tweaks. Making small adjustments to routine social protection programs that are geared toward increasing flexibility and ensuring continuity of provision in times of shocks. Examples of how existing programs can be adapted include the following: waiving cash transfer conditionality, changing payment delivery methods, or modifying the payment schedule. ⊲ Vertical expansion (or scale-up). Temporarily increasing the benefit value or duration of an existing program for some or all current beneficiaries. New components may also be added (figure B1.2.1). ⊲ Horizontal expansion (or scale-out). Temporarily expanding program coverage to new households affected by a shock (either new or existing programs). When adopting temporary programs, options include the following : ⊲ Piggybacking. Using one or more elements of existing social protection programs or systems (for example, social registry, beneficiary list, payment mechanism) to implement a separate response to a shock. ⊲ Alignment. Aligning one or more elements of temporary response programs with national social protection programs or systems. Elements could include objectives, targeting method, transfer value, or delivery mechanism, among others. Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 22 INTRODUCTION FIGURE B1.2.1: Social Safety Net Programs, Vertical and Horizontal Expansion BENEFIT AMOUNT Source: Adapted from Bowen and O’Brien et al. 2018 The conceptual framework of ASP rests on four interlinked building interplay of these building blocks underpins the conceptual and blocks. The four building blocks are as follows: Institutional analytical framework of ASP. The framework provides a holistic Arrangements and Partnerships, Data and Information, Programs view of the ASP ecosystem and can be used to build, assess, and and Delivery Systems, and Finance (figure 1.3 and table 1.1). The strengthen national ASP systems. FIGURE 1.3: The Four Building Blocks for Putting in Place ASP Systems Source: Adapted From World Bank 2020a. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 23 INTRODUCTION TABLE 1.1: Key ASP Building Blocks This building block refers to the actors, structures, and mechanisms required to lead and coordinate the implementation of adaptive social protection (ASP). It focuses on national governments as the primary actors that provide the institutional anchor for ASP planning and implementation. Given its INSTITUTIONAL multisector nature, ASP often involves a wide spectrum of actors from ARRANGEMENTS AND different sectors — including social protection, disaster risk management PARTNERSHIPS (DRM), and climate change adaptation — as well as actors from outside government, such as development and humanitarian partners. It is critical • Government leadership to understand which actor carries out which action, how actors coordinate • Institutional arrangements their work, and what their capacity is. The assessment focuses on institutional factors that contribute to effective ASP implementation, including government leadership, policy coherence, legal frameworks, the definition of roles and responsibilities, and the existence of institutional mechanisms for coordination across government and with partners. This building block concerns the data requirements for an effective ASP system. It refers to data and information required to assess and understand a country’s risk profile by looking at the types, frequency, and spatial distribution of hazards, as well as which assets and populations are most DATA AND INFORMATION exposed and most at risk to the identified shocks. Access to information before shocks occur is vital for designing and implementing ASP programs. • Early Warning Systems Early Warning Systems (EWS) are necessary to understand the spatial • Social registries distribution and potential impacts of shocks, and to identify high-risk areas and the populations most likely to be affected.13 Social registries also play a central role in ASP, because they contain information on poor and vulnerable households, which can be used to identify potential beneficiaries of ASP programs (for vertical and horizontal expansions). This building block refers to the design and delivery of social safety net interventions to provide timely support to populations affected by shocks, as well as to promote more adaptive and resilient livelihoods before shocks. PROGRAMS AND In well-established ASP systems, programs have high population coverage DELIVERY SYSTEMS and cover both poverty reduction and livelihoods or productive inclusion elements. The effectiveness of ASP programs in scaling up or out in response • Programs • Delivery systems to shocks critically depends on their underlying delivery systems, which can • Payment systems include outreach and communication, intake and registration of potential beneficiaries, assessment of needs and conditions, efficient payment systems, and grievance redress mechanisms to address complaints and improve delivery. These elements of the delivery chain typically require adaptations to support expansion during and after shocks. This building block refers to the financing strategies and instruments required to finance shock response. Disaster risk financing reflects the shift from a reactive approach, which finances responses ex post, to a proactive approach, which puts in place instruments before shocks, to finance ASP response efficiently. Among others, financing instruments can include FINANCE national funds, contingent credit lines, insurance risk pools (for example, African Risk Capacity; ARC), and private insurance schemes. Pre-positioning and linking financing instruments to ASP programs can promote quick, adequate, and reliable disbursement. Data analysis and cost modeling are essential to informing the financing requirements and instruments of the financing strategy. Source: Based on World Bank 2021b. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 24 INTRODUCTION The Sahel’s vulnerability and exposure to shocks and crises is set national policy makers, development actors, and humanitarian to increase with accelerating climate change, calling for a shift partners. As such, the assessment can represent a baseline, against from often externally funded, ad hoc responses toward building which future assessments can be undertaken to measure progress. sustainable, government-led systems. In the past, the response to shocks and crises predominantly relied on a humanitarian approach The assessment presented in this report leverages the application and with year-to-year ad hoc programs. For example, food insecurity of the Social Protection Stress Test Tool. The stress test provides resulting from the annual lean season was largely addressed a framework to assess the adaptiveness and scalability of social through externally funded humanitarian aid. While humanitarian protection systems in response to shocks, and to identify aid continues to play an important role in navigating food security priority areas for improvement. The stress test is a structured shocks, countries in the Sahel are increasingly putting forward government-led ASP interventions and are beginning to invest in questionnaire, based around the four ASP building blocks. Each systems. Although ASP has been shown to be an effective tool in section of this report provides details on the questionnaire structure responding to the region’s compounding challenges, leveraging (see table A.2 in Appendix A for the full Social Protection Stress its full potential requires government-led national systems that Test Questionnaire). For each question, the tool proposes five can operate at scale — with a suite of programs at scale, mature alternatives, which are scored on a scale from 1 to 5. The lowest information systems, readily budgeted and pre-positioned finance, score refers to a ‘latent’ situation, while the highest score refers to and clear institutional arrangements. The principle of a systems an ‘advanced’ situation. Scores can be aggregated by section, by approach permeates the four pillars of the ASP framework, and the building block, and eventually for the overall assessment. Table latent–advanced framework of the Social Protection Stress Test 1.2 provides an illustration of the scoring scale for the overall Tool is framed around a gradual strengthening of national systems. assessment. The value of the assessment lies not just in its scores, but also in its role as a basis for a productive dialogue around Over the past decade, ASP has been on a remarkable trajectory various aspects of ASP systems. Due to the qualitative nature of the in the Sahel, and this is an appropriate time to take stock of the questions and guidelines for scoring, the ratings are indicative in situation. Until the early 2010s, ASP in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal mainly consisted of ad hoc and small nature and may not be fully comparable across countries. However, emergency food-based programs that provided temporary relief they are useful to identify areas for further investments and, over in times of shocks or acute needs. Today, all six countries have time, to help monitor progress in a specific country. elements of government-led ASP systems in place (for example, programs, targeting mechanisms, social registries, and payment systems) that provide income support to address chronic poverty and promote resilience, and protect livelihoods and human capital from the impacts of shocks. These improvements are the result of significant government commitment and investment, supported by the World Bank (SASPP 2022)14 , the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), and the World Food Programme (WFP), among other partners. With climate change and compounding shocks expected to worsen, it is critical to accelerate efforts to strengthen ASP systems. An important step in this process is to understand existing capacities, assess limitations, and identify entry points for further action — and is what this report aims to provide. 1.3 Methodology This report provides an overview of the state of ASP across six Sahel countries — Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal — along with a set of recommendations for action to strengthen the adaptiveness and responsiveness of existing systems to shocks. The report assesses the prevailing ASP systems, identifies the gaps between required and actual capacities for shock response, and highlights opportunities for targeted investments to build more robust and sustainable ASP systems. The analysis and recommendations in this report can Photo credit: From WorldBank provide a basis for concerted efforts and collaboration between STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 25 INTRODUCTION TABLE 1.2: Social Protection Stress Test Tool Scoring Scale Latent Nascent Emerging Established Advanced The social protection The social protection The social protection The ASP system can The ASP system is system is weak (in system is limited in system has intermediate cover most needs strong, with near- terms of reach and coverage and efficiency coverage and has some and respond to many universal coverage, systems) and does but can pilot and capacity to expand shocks, but some gaps and can scale up and not have the adaptive integrate some basic in response to some are still identified. down efficiently and capacity to scale on adaptive features shocks but with limited effectively to cover demand. that allow for a small “reach.” those in need. increase in “reach.” Source: World Bank. 2021b. This regional report builds on assessments carried out in each country). It is important to note that in the period since the each country between October 2021 and September 2022. application of the stress test, some countries have continued to The assessments were based a series of workshops, that were make progress. While the text in this report attempts to capture the comprised of government authorities, UNICEF, WFP, and the most significant developments, these changes are not reflected World Bank, between October 2021 and September 2022 (see in the classifications presented in figure 2.1, figure 2.2, figure 2.3, Appendix for details on workshop dates and participants for figure 2.4, and figure 2.7. Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 26 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE 2. Progress on the Four Building Blocks for ASP: A Mixed Picture Progress is not uniform across countries or building blocks (figure 2.1 Overview 2.1). All countries have either established a social registry or the foundations of a social registry, however the static (nondynamic) approach to data collection and limited coverage result in data Overall, each of the countries have made significant progress that can be obsolete and incomplete, which makes it difficult for in establishing some of the key ASP building blocks, from countries to identify poor and vulnerable households affected their starting point nearly a decade ago. All countries have the by shocks. The limited coverage of safety nets remains a critical foundations of an ASP system, can provide regular cash transfers constraint to a more mature approach to ASP in four of the to a certain percentage of the poor, and have the capacity to countries — Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger. Similarly, the respond to some shocks, particularly annual food insecurity, albeit low penetration of digital payment systems in countries limits the with some delays. In addition, countries are currently piloting adoption of modern payment approaches. Finally, Finance is the innovative approaches, related to EWS, program design, triggers, building block with the least progress across all countries. The or payments. The greatest advances have been made in Mauritania low ratings in the Finance building block also point to a need for and Senegal — particularly in terms of the two building blocks other components of the system to be in place, with sufficient of Data and Information, and Programs and Delivery Systems. coverage and delivery capacity, before countries can focus on Senegal is the only country in which the system is considered at the mobilization and coordination of financing. an “emerging” level of development. Coverage of routine safety nets in these two countries has now reached a national scale Overall, while there is a strong foundation and commitment to and is providing a strong foundation upon which to launch shock ASP, much remains to be done. In each country, there remains a responses. This is illustrated by the response to the COVID-19 critical need to apply a concerted and carefully sequenced plan of pandemic in Mauritania, which involved scaling up its cash transfer action across building blocks. Operationalization is a key priority, programs to 210,000 households Mauritania, (the routine safety net because systems, policies, or delivery mechanisms have frequently program had 80,000 beneficiary households at the onset of the been established but not yet fully implemented. pandemic). In Niger, despite its lower foundational coverage, cash transfer programs were scaled up to reach 375,000 households in response to COVID-19 in 2021. FIGURE 2.1: Summary of Stress Test Assessment Source : Original figure for this publication Note: Figure based on assessments completed in October 2021 in Burkina Faso; September 2022 in Chad; June 2022 in Mali; November 2021 in Mauritania; May 2022 in Niger; and January 2022 in Senegal. Progress realized since these assessments are reflected in the text. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 27 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE arrangements for coordination and allocation of roles and functions Institutional Arrangements and 2.2 Partnerships : Key Findings to different actors could help promote a more transparent and efficient collaboration. Strong initiatives are emerging in the Sahel, allowing for social protection instruments to play a more central In the Sahel, all countries are making progress on ensuring that role in shock-response strategies and to benefit from its associated ASP is underpinned by appropriate policies, response plans, and financing. coordination arrangements (box 2.1 and figure 2.2). Countries are integrating ASP into their national social protection policies and Finally, external partners are critical for the ASP agenda, both have established national response plans that define responses for the mobilization of financing and, in some fragile contexts, to food insecurity. Progress is more limited on the implementation for implementation. Hence, strong collaboration between of these policies and plans. governments and partners is essential to avoid duplication, inefficiencies, and tensions. There are emerging examples of The discussion on ASP and shock response in the Sahel revolves partners aligning with national systems and priorities, as opposed around food and nutrition security (rather than specific hazards to operating parallel systems. Overall, government leadership such as drought or floods). Hence, coordination among ASP is essential to the coordination of external actors, in addition actors and with DRM actors is critical to ensuring greater use to an explicit effort by those funding these actors to promote of ASP instruments in responding to shocks. Clear institutional convergence and alignment. BOX 2.1 : WHAT IS THE FOCUS OF THE INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS AND PARTNERSHIPS BUILDING BLOCK? The Institutional Arrangements and Partnerships building block considers the extent to which adaptive social protection (ASP) is underpinned by appropriate policies, contingency plans, coordination arrangements, and government leadership. The multidisciplinary and interagency nature of ASP requires diversified expertise and coordination among the various policy frameworks, plans, organizations, and programs involved in social protection, disaster risk management (DRM), and climate change adaptation. A clear articulation of the respective roles and responsibilities can help establish actionable, operational partnerships for the delivery of ASP. Strong government leadership is important to successfully coordinate or create links between DRM and social protection agencies — who are often otherwise disconnected. This building block is concerned with assessing the ability of a country’s government to lead shock response efforts, both ex ante and ex post. This ability provides an indication of the overall development of a country’s institutions. Consequently, the questions in this section seek to ascertain the relative strength and capacity of governmental institutions to drive planning for shocks and for coordination with, and of, other stakeholders and actors in response to shocks. The assessment is based on the following questions : ⊲ Is there any government policy or strategy that recognizes the role of (adaptive) social protection in DRM? ⊲ Is there a contingency plan or response plan, with links to risk assessment, which determines the actions to be taken in case of shocks? ⊲ How effectively does the government lead the response plan and implementation? ⊲ Is there a public agency which is formally tasked with leading the social protection shock-response efforts? ⊲ Is there a coordination mechanism or institutionalized link between DRM (or the institutionalized system responsible for shock response) and social protection agencies? Sources : World Bank 2021b; Smith and Bowen 2020; Bowen et al. 2020 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 28 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE FIGURE 2.2: Overview of the Institutional Arrangements and Partnerships Building Block Source: Original figure for this publication.* In the Sahel, the main instruments for shock-response are food KEY FINDING 1: and nutritional security response plans. Governments and partners Countries in the Sahel are incorporating ASP principles into in the Sahel have historically focused on food and nutritional their national social protection policies and are habitually security. Because food insecurity results from different types of preparing response plans to guide their response to food shocks and hazards, most response plans are hazard-agnostic insecurity, although implementation is often limited. but focus predominantly on the recurrent annual lean season. In addition, several countries have risk- or shock-specific plans, Countries in the Sahel all have national social protection policies, particularly for floods, but these typically receive less resources. and most are taking steps to incorporate the core principles Comprehensive contingency plans would be necessary, to enable of ASP into these frameworks. Building on policy frameworks faster and more effective responses by planning in advance what for social safety nets that, until recently, focused primarily on steps should be taken when a shock occurs (box 2.2). For instance, chronic issues (for example, addressing structural poverty and Mauritania has a contingency plan for floods, Plan de contingence vulnerability), countries in the region are beginning to integrate national de réponse aux inondations, and a response plan food needs that are related to covariate shocks. Mauritania is updating insecurity, Plan National de Réponse, in addition to the national its policy settings to reflect the increasing role of safety nets in emergency response plan, Organisation des Secours, with the shock-response and the government’s commitment to the ASP food insecurity plan more advanced. agenda. Similarly, in Chad, the national social protection strategy, that is currently under preparation, is expected to reflect the Typically, food insecurity response plans are based on the strategic relevance of ASP and highlight its core components. national Early Warning System (Cadre Harmonisé, box 2.10) In Burkina Faso, progress is also being made on the integration and, every year, describe the anticipated needs in the various of ASP into the new social protection policy and into the food regions and guide decisions on interventions from governmental security response framework. Although progress is observed in and nongovernmental actors. For example, in Chad, the national social protection strategies, there is limited integration of ASP response plan identified seven provinces at risk and estimated considerations into national disaster response policy frameworks, that more than 5.3 million people would be food insecure (1.5 such as plans for floods or fires, and into the annual lean season million people in a severe situation) during the 2023 lean season. response plans. In Niger, the budget of the National Response Plan for 2022, estimated at US$437 million, was financed by the government (43 percent) and partners (57 percent). Note: Figure based on assessments completed in October 2021 in Burkina Faso; September 2022 in Chad; June 2022 in Mali; November 2021 in Mauritania; May 2022 in Niger; and January 2022 in Senegal. Progress realized since these assessments are reflected in the text. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 29 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE BOX 2.2 : WHAT ARE CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR ASP? Contingency planning is an essential measure to help countries prepare their systems for shocks. A good contingency plan will address all phases of the delivery chain and will outline needed modifications to processes and changes to systems and institutions. It provides the opportunity to define — in advance — key issues including the following: roles and responsibilities of different actors, adaptations that are needed for processes and systems, development of standard operating procedures, training of stakeholders, and articulation of links to wider disaster risk management (DRM) plans. Ultimately, contingency planning can ensure faster, more effective, and more coordinated implementation. Source: Smith and Bowen 2020. The realization of commitments related to shock response in social protection policies and contingency plans has been KEY FINDING 2: constrained, often due to financing challenges. In Burkina Faso, In most countries in the Sahel, the institutional landscape Chad, Mali, and Niger, operationalizing the vision of the social for ASP lacks strong anchoring, clarity of roles, and protection policy — that safety nets should reduce vulnerability coordination mechanisms across its own actors and to shocks and disasters — has been constrained by inadequate with actors from other sectors that are involved in shock financial resources and limited mainstreaming of DRM into response or disaster risk management. social protection programs. Similarly, one of the challenges in the region is the operationalization of response plans, which are Coordination within the ASP sector remains complex. A key issue often hampered by inadequate funding and limited coordination. is fragmentation within and between agencies that have social Incomplete operationalization suggests that policy documents protection responsibilities. For instance, in Mali, two agencies are do not guarantee implementation, and that implementation may charged with implementing routine safety nets, with no coordination need to take precedence over the development or revision of mechanisms. In Niger, the National Mechanism for Prevention and social protection frameworks. Management of Food Crises faces internal coordination constraints because its three units tend to work in silos as follows: the Cellule Système d’Alerte Précoce (EWS Cell) is responsible for monitoring RECOMMENDATION 1: food insecurity, the Cellule Crises Alimentaires (Food Crises Cell) Incorporate shock-response functions and instruments into is in charge of short-term food and nutrition insecurity responses, national social protection strategies and include ASP programs and the Cellule Filets Sociaux (Safety Net Cell) is focused on the as response vehicles in national shock-response plans. programming of regular and shock-responsive cash transfers. In contrast, Senegal has addressed past overlaps and lack of clarity in FOR GOVERNMENTS: mandates through the recent anchoring of the Fond de Solidarité ⊲ Expand the focus of national social protection strategies Nationale (National Solidarity Fund; FSN) at the ministry responsible beyond chronic issues such as structural poverty and for community development and equity, with a clear mandate to vulnerability, to include building resilience and responding implement shock-response programs, and through clarification of to shocks. the mandate of the Délégation Générale à la Protection Sociale et ⊲ Integrate ASP as a key component of disaster risk à la Solidarité Nationale (General Delegation to Social Protection management and include as a response mechanism and National Solidarity; DGPSN) to focus on regular cash transfers in contingency planning and national food insecurity and productive inclusion programs. However, the annual response response plans. plan and climate insurance instruments are under the responsibility of other institutions, which can constrain coordination. Experience FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS: in the region shows that there can be important challenges even ⊲ Increase awareness, among all development and when there are close institutional links between units working on humanitarian actors, of the role that ASP instruments ASP, especially when internal authority, coordination, and resource (including social registry and payment mechanisms) and allocation still needs to be clearly defined. programs can play in contributing to shock-response. ⊲ Coordinate around joint messaging on the role of ASP Coordination between agencies responsible for rapid-onset (regular safety net, resilience or economic inclusion, shocks and those focused on food insecurity remains weak. The and shock-response interventions) and their inclusion absence of coordination mechanisms can create the potential in national policies. for institutional friction and conflict, rather than institutional ⊲ Promote operationalization of policy commitment to collaboration. In Senegal, while mechanisms exist for coordination provide support through national systems where possible, between the ministries responsible for DRM (which falls under the and align with national systems otherwise. purview of the Ministry of Interior) and social protection, they are STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 30 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE not adequately operationalized. In Burkina Faso, the interministerial In Senegal, coordination between agencies involved in shock Conseil National de Secours d’Urgence et de Réhabilitation response — including the Secrétariat Exécutif du Conseil National (National Council for Emergency Relief and Rehabilitation) and de Sécurité Alimentaire (Executive Secretariat of the National Food the Conseil National pour la Sécurité Alimentaire (National Council Security Council), which is responsible for the coordination of the for Food Security) have overlapping competencies, which leads food security national response plan, and the FSN — resulted in to inefficiencies regarding lines of authority. In Chad, efforts the implementation of a cash transfer response to food insecurity to coordinate horizontally have been limited by the absence by the FSN, as part of the national response plan. In Burkina of a framework for coordination between ministries involved Faso, a reform of the Conseil National de Sécurité Alimentaire in social protection and those in charge of responses to food (National Food Security Council) and the overall food security insecurity. This weak coordination is due in part to the vertical and response framework will explicitly include social protection in external dimensions of ASP coordination (box 2.3), which cannot responses by designating the national flagship social safety nets be addressed by a simple framework. program as one of the disaster response modalities. In contrast, the Conseil National d’Orientation Stratégique de la Protection Sociale (National Council for the Strategic Orientation of Social BOX 2.3: THREE KEY DIMENSIONS FOR EFFECTIVE Protection) in Mali, established in 2016 for the purpose of promoting dialogue and coordination between social protection stakeholders, COORDINATION ON ASP has played a limited role. Effective shock response for adaptive social protection (ASP) will depend on coordination among many stakeholders across RECOMMENDATION 2: the following dimensions: Define roles and responsibilities and establish coordination mechanisms among a broader range of ASP actors and with ⊲ Horizontal coordination. Across national government other governmental and non-governmental DRM actors. departments managing social protection programs, social registries, and disaster response. FOR GOVERNMENTS : ⊲ Vertical coordination. Among central government bodies ⊲ Define mandates and roles of institutions responsible and those decentralized bodies and local government for social protection, shock response, and DRM. actors involved in the safety net delivery chain. ⊲ Establish or streamline national coordination ⊲ Coordination with external actors. Particularly among mechanisms and ensure participation of government international humanitarian actors that fund and deliver and nongovernmental actors as relevant, based on the emergency cash and voucher responses and have shock. overlapping aims in addressing needs. FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS : ⊲ Provide technical and financial support to national Source: Smith and Bowen 2020. coordination mechanisms, including through adequate human resources. Some countries are making progress on institutionalizing links ⊲ Participate in the coordination mechanisms. between social protection and food security actors. Mauritania ⊲ Identify operational modalities to progressively deploy has established a permanent institutional platform — Dispositif interventions within the national framework. National de Prévention d’Alerte Précoce et de Réponse aux Chocs d’Insécurité Alimentaire et Nutritionnelle (National Early Warning and Food and Nutrition Insecurity Shock Response System; DCAN). DCAN is responsible for the entire shock response chain, preparing the diagnosis based on early warning tools, supporting the production of the national response plan, managing the Fond National de Réponse aux Crises Alimentaires et Nutritionnelles (National Food and Nutrition Crisis Response Fund; the FNRCAN), and coordinating the implementation of the response. DCAN comprises all government agencies involved in food security, as well as technical and financial partners. In 2022, for its first year of implementation, the DCAN was successful in coordinating cash transfers to all households in need. In Niger, a 2022 decree (Arrêté 0195 PM of October 13, 2022) recognized cash transfers as the response modality to support food insecure households in the national response plan, paving the way for greater integration. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 31 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE coordination has materialized between UNICEF, WFP, and the KEY FINDING 3: government supported by the World Bank, over the development of Government leadership and capacity to promote the the core pillars of an ASP system. Also, a shock response program alignment of partners is essential but remains constrained. in response to the socioeconomic impact of the COVID-19 crisis was jointly implemented by the World Bank–supported ASP government In the Sahel, partnerships are critical for the ASP agenda, both program, UNICEF, and WFP. This is helping to focus attention on for financing and, in some fragile contexts, for implementation. strengthening national systems rather than on creating parallel Most countries in the region experience a certain degree of reliance structures. Some countries are also setting up instruments that on international partners, particularly when there is insufficient seek to channel both internal and external resources through a domestic funding or capacity to mount comprehensive national single mechanism (see section on Financing). responses to shocks. In Chad, external support for the social safety net program includes financing and convening. Other Government leadership is essential to align humanitarian shock-response interventions are limited to short-term emergency responses to food insecurity with national social protection support provided by humanitarian partners. In Mauritania, partner systems (Kreidler et al. 2023). It is essential for the government financing has complemented funding for routine programs and food to set a clear direction on ASP and take a leadership role on the security interventions, although the government has contributed a implementation of response plans. In Chad, there are limited efforts growing share of the needs. International partners in this country and incentives toward convergence or alignment with government have typically included WFP, Oxfam, and Action contre la Faim, programs — partly explained by the government’s limited capacity which implement cash transfer programs aimed at supporting to take an active leadership role in social protection. Similarly, food insecure and poor households during the lean season. In the weak political and governance context in Mali reduces the addition to financing, there are also challenging contexts where incentives for alignment. In Burkina Faso, most humanitarian partners can play an important role in the implementation of some activities take place in insecure areas where routine programs programs, including in areas plagued by fragility or conflict in have limited coverage. In Senegal, there is a need for improved particular in Burkina Faso and Mali, or when government capacity intragovernmental coordination to encourage humanitarian actors is still under development. to harmonize their ways of working. There are multiple options for governments to foster greater convergence and alignment Strong collaboration between governments and partners is with national systems. Recent experience suggests that some essential to avoid duplication, inefficiencies, and tensions, and are easier to achieve, including promotion of the use of national there are emerging examples of partners aligning with national delivery systems such as payment systems or grievance redress systems and priorities, as opposed to operating parallel systems. mechanisms, while convergence is harder to achieve in other The advancing ASP agenda has helped to catalyze strategic areas (box 2.4). In addition, international actors who finance and technical coordination between international partners and humanitarian partners also have a role to play, because they can government on food insecurity (for other shocks, the picture prioritize convergence and provide implementing actors with is more nuanced). For instance, in Mali, international partners clear incentives for alignment, rather than implicitly incentivize are working within the national social protection framework, departures from national systems by demanding an alignment relationships are strengthening, and there is good alignment and with their own priorities (Kreidler et al. 2023). collaboration. In Mauritania, the government, the World Bank, and WFP jointly developed a satellite data-driven decision tool to support the national EWS. In addition, through the leadership of the National Food and Nutrition Crises Prevention and Response Framework, all partners intervening in food security response use the social registry and subscribe to the directives of the national response plan developed by the government. In Niger, enhanced Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 32 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE BOX 2.4 : WHAT HAS WORKED FOR ALIGNMENT AND CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NATIONAL SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS AND HUMANITARIAN AID IN THE SAHEL? Humanitarian assistance tends to operate in urgent and volatile contexts with short-term horizons, while national social protection systems — including regular social safety nets — typically focus on longer term issues. However, both types of interventions share a broad goal to protect the poorest and most vulnerable. This common goal is an opportunity to better connect humanitarian assistance to the national social protection system, particularly in the Sahelian context, which is characterized by persistent and cyclical food insecurity. Increased convergence can lead to greater efficiency and effectiveness, by encouraging cross-learning, preventing duplication, reducing confusion among beneficiaries, increasing coverage of programs, minimizing transaction costs, and optimizing response time. Recent experience highlights that convergence can be seen as a fluid and adaptable concept, in which some elements are more amenable to harmonization than others (figure B2.4.1). For instance, the alignment of payment systems and use (or not) of conditionality are generally easier to converge on, while eligibility criteria and transfer value (a recurrent topic of disagreement) are more difficult, because they are more closely linked to program or actors’ identity and values. Some elements, such as funding sources, beneficiary registration (which raises issues of data protection and interoperability), definition of vulnerability, and ways to identify geographical zones of intervention, can be contentious but can be overcome with additional effort. By focusing on low- hanging fruits, actors can help build momentum toward more complex agreements in the future. FIGURE B2.4.1: Level of Contention in Program Elements Utilisation of the same payment system Sources of funding Eligibility criteria Working with the same outreach actors Registration Transfer values Use market assessment Needs assessment and toupdate transfer values geographic targeting Conditionality Source : World Bank 2022. Low-hanging fruits such as payment systems can be While registration can be a contentious element, catalysts for convergence (see section on Data and differences can be overcome. Social registries can provide Information Systems). Outreach and communication with the data for all programs to identify eligible households, using communities are another way to increase convergence with their own criteria. However, humanitarian actors intermittently minimal effort, because programs tend to leverage the same require faster registration processes or different data than is frontline delivery staff or organizations. In Senegal, local civil available in social registries. Ensuring that social registries society organizations, which help the government implement provide quality data and include variables used by key actors, the social safety net in the field, also work with other cash can help incentivize joint approaches on registration (see assistance programs. These social operators are key to section on Data and Information Systems). enabling convergence because they ensure that a consistent interlocutor communicates on behalf of various programs. Sources : Kreidler et al. 2023; Saidi and Ruiz 2023. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 33 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE elaboration of national response plans, and the use of national RECOMMENDATION 3: BOX 2.5 : WHAT IS THE FOCUS OF THE DATA AND ASP systems when designing responses. Strengthen the government leadership and convening role INFORMATION SYSTEMS BUILDING BLOCK? on ASP and promote the alignment or integration of financial and operational partners’ support within national systems. The Data and Information Systems building block recognizes FOR GOVERNMENTS: that a social protection system can only take appropriate and ⊲ Streamline the elaboration process of the national timely action if it can be adequately informed. The two key response plan and lead its implementation, anchoring aspects which affect a country’s ability to respond in a timely the process in a collaborative approach. manner and target the affected population are (1) functional and up-to-date social registries, and (2) Early Warning Systems FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS: (EWS). ⊲ Participate in the national coordination mechanism and in the elaboration of the national response plan. Social registries, or other forms of databases which include ⊲ Identify opportunities for harmonization of programs and information about beneficiaries or potential beneficiaries, collaboration. ⊲ Support the implementation of the national response can play a valuable role in adaptive social protection (ASP) plan by providing support through national programs, systems. The efficiency and successful performance of the using national systems, or, at a minimum, aligning with social protection system relies on knowing who the beneficiaries national parameters. should be and how to reach them. Social registries underpin this, because they can be instrumental in identifying households or individuals who are impacted by certain shocks, or likely to be impacted, based on their characteristics and vulnerabilities. Data and Information Systems: 2.3 Key Findings The key objective of functional EWS is to monitor and provide alerts as to the occurrence of a natural hazard event. EWS are essential to ASP, because without the ability to forecast In the Sahel, the Data and Information Systems building block is a shock and its likely location and impact, it is not possible to among the most developed of the four ASP building blocks, due prepare a timely response to this type of shock. This building to advances made in the development of social registries (box block seeks to understand whether the ASP system can rely 2.5). All countries in the region have, or are currently developing, a on a country’s EWS. social registry. The largest social registry in the region is in Senegal, The assessment is based on a series of questions related to which covers approximately one-third of the population across the social registries and EWS, including as follows : national territory. The social registry in Mauritania also covers the entire national territory and all poorest households. Despite this ⊲ What kind of registry is used to target beneficiaries for progress, challenges remain. The limited coverage of registries a shock response? What is its coverage, particularly of in most Sahel countries, and their reliance on in-person surveys, disaster-prone areas? Are there other databases that constrains their dynamism and their relevance for shock response. could significantly expand reach? In addition, greater institutionalization and interoperability of ⊲ What share of records is older than three years and is social registries must be achieved, to ensure that they are used there a protocol for updating the registry? by a broader range of governmental and nongovernmental actors ⊲ Does the data in the registry allow targeting, identifying, in their responses to shocks and in their promotion of resilience locating, and contacting the beneficiary and transferring among the poor and vulnerable. the benefit during shock response? ⊲ Do humanitarian partners use the government’s registry All Sahel countries have early warning tools and food insecurity for their response? classification systems — namely the Cadre Harmonisé ⊲ Are there any data privacy regulations with a specified (Harmonized Framework) — which focus on food and nutrition course of action in the event of a privacy breach? security (rather than specific hazards) and provide estimates of ⊲ Are there functional EWS for the shocks the country is the number of food insecure households each year in different exposed to? regions. However, these tools face technical challenges related ⊲ Is the national EWS capable of warning (monitoring and to data accuracy and reliability, as well as important capacity and alerting) of shocks? financing challenges, because they frequently rely on external ⊲ Has the government undertaken vulnerability and risk support to ensure their functionality. It remains critical to ensure assessments to assess the impact of shocks based on a strong link between the early warning tools, the processes of EWS data? STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 34 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE national in its coverage and includes approximately 1.3 million ⊲ Is there an agreed trigger to initiate shock response or people out of a population of 4.5 million. Mali has a similarly to scale up social protection systems in shock response? broad social registry, with information on 1.2 million households — approximately one-third of the population – but the data was Sources: World Bank 2021b ; Smith and Bowen 2020; collected using different questionnaires. In other countries in the Bowen et al. 2020. region, significant efforts are still needed to improve the coverage and relevance of social registries: Burkina Faso is developing a KEY FINDING 4: new comprehensive social registry, expected to be populated A strong buy-in to social registries has resulted in their with approximately 200,000 households in the first phase (by expansion across the Sahel, though many countries are yet the end of 2023). In Chad, the registry’s coverage is expanding to cover all geographic areas and households vulnerable to but remains low, currently including households from only 14 of shocks. the country’s 23 provinces, with coverage varying significantly, ranging from 76 percent in one region to single-digit coverage One of the most active areas of ASP progress across the Sahel in others. Since the assessment reflected in figure 2.3, Niger has region is the establishment of social registries. The Sahel is made significant progress in the development of its unified social characterized by varying levels of development in social registries. registry, building on the national safety net program’s operations In Senegal, the unique national registry contains information management system, which currently includes information on on approximately 550,000 households from all areas of all 14 400,000 households (approximately 11 percent of the population) regions — approximately one-third of the population and all and data directly collected by the social registry unit. The scope the extreme poor — and its expansion to approximately one of the social registry database in Niger will expand to 800,000 million households is under way. The registry in Mauritania is also households by the end of 2024. FIGURE 2.3 : Overview of the Data and Information Systems Building Block Source : Original figure for this publication* *Note : Figure based on assessments completed in October 2021 in Burkina Faso; September 2022 in Chad; June 2022 in Mali; November 2021 in Mauritania; May 2022 in Niger; and January 2022 in Senegal. Progress realized since these assessments are reflected in the text. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 35 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE The ability of social registries to inform shock-response is limited Registries also typically focus on households that are chronically in several countries by incomplete geographic coverage. Social poor or food-insecure and are less able to identify households who registries can be a powerful tool for reaching beneficiaries affected are at risk but not currently in chronic poverty or food insecurity. by a shock (box 2.6). Apart from Senegal and Mauritania, whose Safety net programs in the Sahel were primarily established to social registries cover all regions, communes, neighborhoods, provide support and services to the chronically poor. Hence, and villages, the geographic coverage of social registries in other registries have tended to include households based on their countries in the Sahel is still limited. As registries are progressively chronic conditions (poverty, food insecurity, and so on), and do rolled out, they typically start in the poorest or most food-insecure not necessarily capture those who are also at risk of falling into areas, which do not always overlap with shock prone areas. When poverty in times of shocks, but who are not currently among geographic coverage is limited, those vulnerable to shocks who live the poorest. For instance, a social registry might not capture in other areas are de facto not included. Hence, only registries that households who are just above the poverty line and living at have national coverage can provide a strong basis for response the edge of a river prone to flooding, or in informal housing on to different types of shocks or risks. unstable land in an urban slum. Two exceptions exist however, in Senegal and Mauritania, where registries explicitly aim to register an additional layer of households vulnerable to shocks as follows: BOX 2.6: THE POTENTIAL USE OF SOCIAL REGISTRIES FOR the planned expansion in Senegal to one million households also SHOCK-RESPONSE aims to cover those vulnerable to falling into poverty in case of shocks (where the definition of vulnerability relates to the volatility of consumption), and the registry in Mauritania includes Globally, shock-responsive social protection programs are additional households, based on degree of vulnerability of different making greater use of preexisting social registries (and areas, to ensure the registry will be relevant for shock-response other databases) to reach shock-affected households. Social interventions. The registries in Chad and Mauritania also include registries are information systems that support outreach, intake, refugees, as a pre-requisite for their inclusion in the routine and registration, and determination of potential eligibility for one shock response social protection programs. or more social programs. They have a social policy role, as inclusion systems, and an operational role, as information Increasing the registration of at-risk populations in all regions is systems (Leite et al. 2017). critical to ensure that a system is prepared for shocks, however there are numerous operational challenges. Registration of Low coverage or exclusion of some at-risk populations all poor, vulnerable, and at-risk households would facilitate a horizontal expansion in case of a shock but requires significant limits the relevance of social registries in shock response — financing and human capacity. Relying on new technologies, particularly the horizontal expansion of programs. If coverage such as geospatial data, could enable a quicker identification of at-risk populations were to be high, governments would have of households (in Mauritania, the georeferencing of households a ready means to rapidly identify households likely to have provides a mechanism to monitor interventions). Some of the been affected by a shock. In such circumstances, governments requirements or processes involved in registering households could provide additional support to affected households already can also pose a challenge to widescale enrollment. For example, enrolled in ongoing programs (vertical expansion) and provide in Burkina Faso, the proportion of the population that holds the temporary support to affected households not enrolled in prerequisite documentation to register for social protection — such regular programs (horizontal expansion). High coverage social as an official birth certificate, a certificate of citizenship, or a national registries would therefore contribute to a timely and efficient identification card — is estimated at 56.4 percent (with lower rates shock response. for women). Furthermore, registration is particularly challenging in conflict-affected areas, because of limited accessibility and The quality of the data is also important . Over time, some security risks. However, needs are often significant in those areas, as shocks and conflicts exacerbate pre-existing vulnerabilities. To data in social registries are likely to become outdated — address some of these challenges, countries have designed and whether wealth approximations, household composition, deployed mechanisms to reduce the risk of exclusion, including employment, or contact details. They may also not reflect as follows: in Burkina Faso, households are supported to obtain population movements. More dynamic (or adaptive) intake national identification cards; in Senegal, beneficiaries who do and registration processes, with on-demand mechanisms not have recognized identification cards can nominate a person built in for the regular updating of records, may help to retain outside of the household as the recipient; and in Mauritania, an the relevance of the data for targeting emergency assistance. official identification is not required for the national safety net programs (recognizing that majority of the poorest quintiles would Source: Adapted from Smith and Bowen 2020 otherwise be rendered ineligible). Finally, ensuring displaced people are considered for registration, and eligibility for routine programs, remains a challenge in most of the region. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 36 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE two-thirds of social registry records in Mali are less than three RECOMMENDATION 4: years old15. However, in Chad, a significant proportion of social Expand the coverage of social registries to all geographic registry records are already more than three years old. areas and all households vulnerable to shock, to ensure that they can be leveraged for shock response. BOX 2.7 : HOW REGISTRATION ERRORS IN MALAWI FOR GOVERNMENTS : CAUSED DELAYS IN PROVIDING SHOCK RESPONSE ⊲ Develop and implement a national social registry expansion strategy in line with patterns of vulnerability, food insecurity and displacement, to ensure households in In Malawi, the overall pace of implementation of the urban extreme poverty or vulnerable to shocks or food insecurity response to COVID-19 was delayed due to significant data are included. quality issues. Key information that was to be captured by ⊲ Update the data collection protocol and instruments, enumerators was later found to be incomplete or inaccurate. to ensure all relevant variables are included (to proxy As a result, mobile network operators had to undertake a poverty and vulnerability) and to respond to the needs comprehensive exercise to match up names of beneficiaries of all potential user programs. with phone numbers and National Registration Identifications. ⊲ Identify mechanisms to address constraints linked to insecurity and displacement. This process caused a substantial delay in the response implementation and shows the potentially significant impact FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS : of errors originating from the registration exercise. ⊲ Support analysis to improve understanding of vulnerability to food insecurity and shocks (including drought and Source : Paul et al. 2021 floods, among others) and inform social registry coverage expansion and questionnaires or variables. Presently, countries in the Sahel collect information on ⊲ Support the development of the social registry expansion households through waves of widescale data collection, which strategy to ensure adequate coverage. limits countries’ ability to maintain current data. Sahelian countries use an administrator-driven approach, whereby they reach out to households at specific times, through specific mechanisms, rather than an “on-demand” approach, whereby households can take KEY FINDING 5: the initiative to provide information or updates. Countries took Keeping social registries updated is a challenge in the Sahel different paths to establish social registries as follows: one path but is essential for their use in shock-response. purposefully transitions a large registry of beneficiaries into the foundation of a social registry; the other path, more widely used Ensuring social registries have regularly updated information in the Sahel, develops a social registry from scratch, typically to is an important prerequisite for an inclusive shock response. serve as a basis for the rolling out of a national program (this is Information on households can quickly become outdated, because the case in Chad, Mauritania, and Senegal, and will be the case of a shock, population movement, changes in living conditions, in Burkina Faso, which had initially envisaged building the social the labor market situation, demographic composition, etc. Low registry from an existing beneficiary list). data quality can significantly impact the ability of a program to respond in time (box 2.7). Therefore, a key question for Sahelian Adopting dynamic (or on-demand) inclusion methods could help countries in responding to shocks is how to ensure recent data increase the currency of data. A dynamic inclusion system allows that provide granular information on who has been (or is likely anyone to register or update their information in the social registry to be) affected by a shock. In the region, countries with social at any time, providing more agency to households and enabling registries have adopted different criteria for data currency. Mali a continuous flow of data. These systems require a functional and Mauritania have established that data in their registries should interface for households and hinge on the existence of broad be no older than three years to be considered up to date, while administrative systems that enable households to provide official Senegal has mandated a four-year life cycle and Niger has adopted documentation and prove their identity or other aspects of their a five-year benchmark. However, despite these provisions, most status or socioeconomic conditions. Dynamic mechanisms can be countries haven’t yet been able to put in place mechanisms for used during regular times and in the aftermath of a shock. Some regular updating. Mauritania and Senegal are the only countries non-Sahelian countries, including Brazil’s Cadastro Unico and with a protocol or plan for updating. As a result, in Senegal, all Turkey’s Integrated Social Assistance Service Information System data in the registry is less than four years old, while a systematic (ISAS), are incorporating on-demand measures. One option, which update process is under way in Mauritania (the government is requires a unique identifier common to all databases, is to harness currently interviewing all households in the country with a short existing administrative data sources, such as civil registration questionnaire, and then focusing on the most vulnerable with and vital statistics, national identification data, or beneficiary a more detailed questionnaire). Despite not having a protocol, databases from programs or agencies. Such channels were used STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 37 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE in responses to COVID-19, as in the case of Togo (box 2.8) (Barca RECOMMENDATION 5: 2020). In some contexts, additional rapid needs assessment can Operationalize protocols to regularly update social registry be implemented around a shock to quickly update information, data, assessing the feasibility of combining administrator- although this requires strong processes and systems. For instance, driven methods, on-demand intake modalities, and the use in Ethiopia, in the wake of a shock, including droughts, the Ethiopian of administrative records through interoperability. National Disaster Risk Management Commission is responsible for conducting needs assessments and channelling resources to FOR GOVERNMENTS : meet those needs through a coordinated and government-led ⊲ Develop protocols to regularly update the social approach to financing (Bowen et al. 2020). registry that combine administrator-driven and on- demand intake modalities. While not all on-demand approaches are feasible in all Sahelian ⊲ Identify options to streamline social registry contexts, options exist. Many of the options described above may questionnaires and data collection processes to be too demanding on human and financial resources, or require facilitate regular updating while ensuring social greater penetration of digital technology, however alternatives registries serve the needs of existing and potential could be considered. Options for dynamic inclusion systems include users. permanent local offices or a strong involvement of existing local ⊲ Explore options for dynamic updating through social service staff. In addition to adopting more dynamic methods, interoperability with other information systems and some Sahelian countries are exploring options for modular data sources of administrative records (identification, health, structures, which would include core modules (information to education, tax, and telecoms, among others). be collected for all households) and complementary modules ⊲ Develop a multiyear strategy to expand and regularly (information to be collected depending on program requirements). update the social registry and to plan for human and Also, depending on how quickly different data age, different financial resources. variables could be updated with different frequency or use different modalities. Finally, user feed-back – receiving updated information FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS: from users and ensuring its incorporation in the social registry - ⊲ Provide technical support for the design of updating could be better harnessed to update data. This would require protocols. both mobilizing users and ensuring technical aspects are covered ⊲ Provide multiyear support in line with government through enhanced data exchange (see following section). social registry expansion and updating strategy and in coordination with other partners. BOX 2.8 : TOGO’S SUPPORT TO INFORMAL WORKERS DURING THE COVID-19 CRISIS In Togo, support to informal workers during the COVID-19 crisis used an on-demand approach. The government established a digital registration and enrolment platform on which potential beneficiaries could log their details. Within a few months of being launched in 2020, nearly 1.4 million individuals (or 35 percent of the adult population) were registered. The eligibility of these individuals (their status as informal workers) was then assessed by cross-referencing the registrants’ occupation against the voter registry, which included information on the location and occupation of individuals. Source: World Bank 2021a. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 38 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE regulations to promote or mandate the use of social registries by KEY FINDING 6: government programs and for shock responses or other targeted Social registries are not fully integrated or leveraged in the interventions. For example, in Senegal, a 2021 presidential decree region, so their potential in terms of increased efficiency institutionalized the social registry and made it the mandatory and timeliness is yet to be fully realized. tool for targeting all social protection programs in the country. However, such decrees and incentives create useful incentives In the Sahel, social registries are only partially integrated into the only where registries have sufficient coverage and quality to be broader ecosystem of existing information systems of different effectively useful for programs. In practice, social registries are sectors or actors. When databases can exchange information, being leveraged by government and nongovernmental actors when governments can deploy shock-response in a more timely and the database has relatively large coverage, high relevance, and efficient manner, including by limiting duplication. Sharing can also high quality, and programs can benefit from using them (reduction promote more integrated interventions for poor and vulnerable in cost, reliability of information, etc.). For instance, in Mauritania households. In Mali, there are several instances of the ecosystem and Senegal, the social registries currently have more than 25 being leveraged, including an information exchange between governmental and nongovernmental users (Box 2.9). In Chad, 12 the social registry and the database of the Régime d’Assistance partners have signed data sharing agreements to use the social Médicale (Medical Assistance Scheme), which holds information registry, though only one program currently provides and uses on the socioeconomic status and living conditions of 70,000 the data. Where coverage is too limited or data incomplete or individuals. In addition, some humanitarian nongovernmental outdated, governments and partners tend to rely on their own organizations have leveraged the social registry, and UNICEF databases or carry out complementary registration. has used the Medical Assistance Scheme’s database to identify beneficiaries for a cash transfer program. In addition to the increased coordination and effectiveness of interventions, sharing social BOX 2.9 : RANGE OF USERS OF SOCIAL REGISTRIES IN registries can increase efficiency and curb expenditure, because MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL some of the costs related to the identification of households or individuals are shared. In Mauritania, social registry users include a range of government In addition to coverage and quality issues, bottlenecks related actors and programs — the regular safety net program Tekavoul, to data privacy or sharing are key constraints to the broader shock-response government interventions, the health insurance leveraging of social registries by multiple actors. Some of the key scheme, the health ministry, the fish distribution national agency, factors that enable interoperability include unique identification, and the ministry responsible for youth employment. The social data exchange protocols, and information sharing agreements (as registry is also used by a range of nongovernmental actors, well as the quality of the other databases that could be linked to institutions, and United Nations (UN) agencies, including the the social registry to complement their information). The lack of United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), WFP, uniform and robust regulatory frameworks to protect data privacy Action contre la Faim, Oxfam, Medecins du Monde, Save the can also hamper integration and is an issue in the region (Kreidler Children, Veterinarians without Borders, and the World Bank. et al. 2023). Sharing data can also pose significant protection Similarly, in Senegal, the social registry is used by government risks in contexts of conflict and displacement. While all countries and nongovernmental programs and actors. Governmental have frameworks, regulations, or laws that safeguard the privacy programs and actors include the national social safety net and confidentiality of social registry data records, there are still program, the national solidarity fund, the health universal limitations to the implementation in some countries. In many countries, data sharing protocols to support interoperability or coverage agency, the ministry responsible for women and access have yet to be developed or signed, which is another children, the national food security council, and the national constraint to enhanced interoperability. Examples from the region electricity agency. Actors outside of government include and beyond provide a strong basis to address this limitation. For multilateral institutions and UN agencies (for example, the instance, in Nigeria, the data sharing agreements proved very World Bank, WFP, and UNICEF), as well as international and useful to organize the response to the COVID-19 crisis (Smith 2021). national nongovernmental organizations such as the Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED), Caritas, Realizing the potential of the social registry ecosystem requires Save the Children, Oxfam, World Vision, and Action contre la political leadership, institutionalization, and coordination Faim, among others. mechanisms. The quality of social registries can be boosted by having multiple users, since their needs and data requests can incentivize increases in coverage and quality. However, commencing this cycle of data improvement will require political leadership to promote programs and the use of social registries, rather than different actors deploying their own data collection and identification processes. Governments can implement incentives or STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 39 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE Countries in the Sahel all have tools that focus on food insecurity, RECOMMENDATION 6: but they face technical, financial, and capacity challenges. A key Promote the use of social registry data among a range of challenge relates to the granularity of estimates. For instance, actors by ensuring its quality and relevance, and establishing in Burkina Faso, to address the insufficient disaggregation (at adequate data privacy and sharing protocols. the provincial level), which provides inadequate granularity for programming, the government has initiated a process to identify FOR GOVERNMENTS: data sources available at the municipal level. In Chad, satellite data ⊲ Institutionalize social registries to ensure their sustainability has been used to pilot regional disaggregation at the level of sous- with an adequate legal framework. préfecture. Another challenge relates to delays in publication of ⊲ Encourage use of social registries, by ensuring they estimates. Sharing information on impending shocks with users at address the needs of programs in terms of coverage, the local level (beyond central government agencies and partners) data quality, and variables. can at times be constrained by the following: weak dissemination ⊲ Assess the data privacy and protection status of the social channels, as in Mauritania; ineffective phone-based alert systems, registry, and improve protocols as needed. as in Mali; or difficulties communicating in local languages, as in ⊲ Establish data-sharing protocols between the social Senegal. Some systems also suffer from complex institutional and registry, user programs, and other relevant stakeholders. coordination mechanisms, which can slow down the analysis, as ⊲ Develop an outreach campaign to inform potential users in Niger. Finally, all countries’ early warning mechanisms continue about the social registry and its potential use. to rely heavily on international financial and technical support and, ⊲ Establish a working group for technical users, to identify despite years of investment, the ownership by governments and areas for improvement. their capacity to spearhead these efforts remain limited. FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS: ⊲ Use the social registry to determine the potential eligibility of all ASP interventions, when possible (implementing partners). BOX 2.10 : THE CADRE HARMONISÉ ⊲ Where the social registry is not yet sufficient, use the social registry questionnaire and methodology and contribute to its expansion. The Cadre Harmonisé (Harmonized Framework) is a food ⊲ Encourage or require implementing partners use the security analysis tool, which contributes to national and social registry when possible, and use its methodology regional food and nutrition insecurity assessment, mitigation otherwise (donors). and response. It improves decision-making for governments and implementing partners to respond to shocks and strengthen resilience. This global tool, known outside the Sahel region as the Integrated Phase Classification system (IPC), was KEY FINDING 7: developed at the request of governments, development While Sahel countries all have EWS for food security, partners, humanitarian actors, nongovernmental organizations their institutionalization and ability to provide timely and accurate predictions remain limited. (NGOs), and civil society. It currently leverages existing national and regional information systems spanning climate, agriculture, Early Warning Systems are critical inputs for the design of shock- livestock farming, fishery, hydrology, household economy, responses, their timeliness, and their geographic relevance. food consumption patterns, disaster risks, conflicts, markets, EWS provide information on potential hazards, and, in the case migration, humanitarian assistance, health, nutrition, and of the Sahel, also on measures of impact, mostly food insecurity. gender, among others. Based on existing information systems, They aim to predict the intensity, timing, location, and potential it classifies the severity of food and nutrition insecurity using impact of the shock. Governments, partners, and communities the following scale : can use the information to design responses and act swiftly; before households resort to negative coping strategies. Globally, countries that have developed substantive to comprehensive EWS • Phase 1. Households can meet essential food and nonfood have eight times fewer disaster-related mortalities than those with needs without engaging in atypical and unsustainable systems with more limited coverage (UNDRR and WMO 2022). strategies to access food and income. In the Sahel, countries set up early warning instruments in the • Phase 2. Households have minimally adequate food mid-1980s, which collect data on rainfall, market prices, and food consumption but are unable to afford some essential stocks, to identify areas and population groups at risk of food nonfood expenditures without engaging in stress-coping and nutrition insecurity. Since 1999, Sahelian countries have strategies. been participating in the multipartner regional Cadre Harmonisé (Harmonized Framework) (Box 2.10). STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 40 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE • Phase 3. Households either have food consumption gaps BOX 2.11: AN INNOVATIVE APPROACH TO REFORM THE that are reflected by high or above-usual acute malnutrition, EARLY WARNING TOOL IN MAURITANIA or are marginally able to meet minimum food needs, but only by depleting essential livelihood assets or through crisis-coping strategies. A new model has been developed to counter the limited • Phase 4. Households either have large food consumption capacity of the food security early warning mechanism in gaps that are reflected in very high acute malnutrition and Mauritania to acquire real time data and generate predictive excess mortality, or can mitigate large food consumption forecasts. The government has worked with the World Bank, gaps, but only by employing emergency livelihood in partnership with WFP, to develop a food security predictive strategies and asset liquidation. model for rural areas — the Food Insecurity Forecast Interface • Phase 5. Households have an extreme lack of food or (FIFI). The model combines the use of historical data with remote other basic needs even after full employment of coping monitoring of sensed climate-related variables. strategies. Starvation, death, destitution, and extremely FIFI can produce fairly accurate lean season food insecurity critical acute malnutrition levels are evident. (For Famine predictions early in the agricultural season (October to Classification, an area needs to have extreme critical levels November), which is six to eight months ahead of the lean of acute malnutrition and mortality.) season. The data is used to forecast at the administrative Moughataa (Department) level at the peak of the lean season, and complements existing approaches, including those that rely Progress is being made to improve data quality and integrate on qualitative methods. This model was used as a contributing other outcomes and shocks, in addition to the current focus on element to the data points of the Cadre Harmonisé in the food insecurity. While a focus on food insecurity is highly relevant last two years. To facilitate the production of information in in the Sahel, early warning instruments could also focus on other real time, the government is setting up a data server with the shocks and outcomes. An early warning mechanism specific to pastoral populations was also established in one region, because required capacity. the pastoral calendar is different from the agricultural one that Source: Blanchard et al. 2023. is used in the Cadre Harmonisé. Niger is currently expanding its early warning mechanism to incorporate information on droughts, It is critical to ensure that the data from EWS are used as inputs using satellite data. A future step could be the inclusion of floods, for the elaboration of response plans. Although the Cadres which are increasingly relevant in the region, although the annual Harmonisés are prepared annually in the Sahel and processes calendar for the Cadre Harmonisé might not be relevant to rapid- are in place to develop response plans, their implementation is onset disasters. Data quality has also been a challenge in some of often affected by limited and irregular resources. Some countries these mechanisms, and some countries are working on improving are exploring mechanisms to use early warning information in their predictive power, such as in Mauritania (Box 2.11). decisions to launch responses, by setting preagreed rules (or triggers) in the form of objective mechanisms that determine when a response should be launched (for example, when a set index crosses a certain threshold, the response is triggered) (UNICEF 2019). Such triggers can be useful for some forms of prearranged financing (see Finance section), because they provide objective measures to disburse funds. Niger is currently piloting the use of a technology-driven approach to enable a faster response to shocks, using satellite early warning data to identify drought- affected areas (Brunelin et al. 2022). In 2022,16 the program was activated for the first time, and was able to provide transfers to 15,200 drought-affected households three months before the traditional lean-season response. Other countries have faced challenges when developing triggers, including as follows: when triggers are not effectively linked to response plans because responses are still largely resource-dependent, as in Mali; or when concerns were raised that fragmentation could increase in case some actors do not adopt the triggers, as in Mauritania. More broadly, relying exclusively on automatic triggers can limit the ability of governments to decide on responses based on a broader Photo credit: From WorldBank set of criteria and can result in sub-optimal responses. Overall, Note : For more information on Cadre Harmonisé and phases of food and nutrition insecurity, see the Cadre Harmonisé website at https://www. cadreharmonise.org/ and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) website at https://www.ipcinfo.org/. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 41 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE the ability of early warning mechanisms to inform response plans weak and faces many limitations, especially in rural areas. This hinges on their quality, timeliness, reliability, and on institutional impacts the transition away from cash in hand, although significant coordination mechanisms. efforts to address these challenges are under way in the region, including in Burkina Faso. Moving toward more digital tools could increase the inclusion of remote and inaccessible areas, enable RECOMMENDATION 7: faster response, and reduce the need for beneficiaries to physically Enhance government ownership, institutionalization, and travel to collect payments. functionality of EWS to ensure they inform the elaboration of national response plans and guide program design. Some of the region’s programs still face serious inclusion limitations. Although a significant percentage of regular safety FOR GOVERNMENTS: net recipients and productive inclusion program beneficiaries are ⊲ Promote adjustments to the Cadre Harmonisé, to allow women, further efforts are required to ensure gender-sensitivity for enhanced objectivity and speed (using technology of program design and delivery. Similarly, more progress must be such as satellite data) and ensure adequate human and made to include growing numbers of forcibly displaced populations financial resources. in the region in social registries and in programs. ⊲ Strengthen early warning mechanisms beyond food security, for hazards such as droughts and floods. Overall, progress on programs and their delivery systems has ⊲ Anchor the formulation of the national response plans been significant. However, issues remain, and it is critical to identify in early warning data, predefining actions linked to improvements to the design of programs and the operation of established triggers, such as safety net scale-ups. delivery systems early on, so that the necessary changes can be implemented before shocks happen. In addition, programs and FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS: delivery systems should predefine what will happen when a shock ⊲ Provide investments and technical assistance for hits — what procedures will be changed, what functionalities will quantitative risk assessments, for improvements of early be added, and what steps will be followed — and embed them warning data accuracy and speed, and for linking early within operational manuals and systems. warning with early action. ⊲ Support the incorporation of adjustments to the Cadre Harmonisé to enhance objectivity and speed. ⊲ Channel shock-response support in line with the national response plan based on early warning data, or use early warning data to design shock-response interventions. Programs and Delivery 2.4 Systems: Key Findings In the Sahel, the Programs and Delivery Systems building block is also showing good progress, but important challenges remain to increase coverage and strengthen delivery systems (box 2.12, figure 2.4). In the Sahel, routine safety programs continue to expand across all countries, and have almost achieved national scale in Mauritania and Senegal. These programs have demonstrated their ability to decrease poverty, increase productivity, promote livelihood diversification, and build resilience to shocks. Burkina Faso has recently decided to deploy a national safety net programme, to be jointly with partners to provide both routine and shock-response support. Routine programs are critical to timely shock-response because they provide the foundations upon which ASP programs can be deployed. Currently, delivery and payment systems are not fully adapted or prepared for shock response, and face programs face challenges to may payment in a timely manner when a scale-up is required. In particular, the digital payment infrastructure in the Sahel remains Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 42 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE BOX 2.12: WHAT IS THE FOCUS OF THE PROGRAMS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS BUILDING BLOCK ? The Programs and Delivery Systems building block focuses on the capacity of social protection programs and their delivery systems to scale and adapt to a shock. A key element of this building block is the existing social protection system in a country and the coverage and diversity of its programs, because a strong social protection system helps to increase the resilience of households before a shock occurs. Adaptive social protection (ASP) focuses on shock-response and on building this resilience. The extent to which a country has planned how it will respond to future shocks affects its capacity to respond when shocks occur. Ideally, a country should anticipate and plan for the adjustments that are needed to its routine delivery and payment mechanisms. For instance, this could include protocols and operational manuals, but also the human resources needed to implement a shock response. There are also different considerations involved in vertical and horizontal expansion, including the ability of the system to be inclusive, reach beneficiaries, meet the needs of populations, put in place communication channels, or handle grievances. Finally, this building block requires payment systems, which are central to the ability of the system to provide support to vulnerable households and ensure that shock-response programs reach those in need in a timely and efficient manner. The assessment of this building block is based, among others, on the following questions : ⊲ What kinds of noncontributory transfer programs, and livelihoods or productive inclusion programs, does the government operate? What is the coverage of social protection programs in the country? ⊲ Does the amount of benefit provided during shocks contribute to maintaining household consumption and welfare? ⊲ Are there communication mechanisms in place that can be leveraged in times of a shock to inform target beneficiaries about the program? Is there a grievance redress mechanism in place to resolve the complaints? ⊲ Is the delivery of assistance informed by a needs assessment  ? How are beneficiaries enrolled in the program in times of shock? ⊲ What percentage of the poorest have a government authorized or recognized identification? ⊲ Does the shock-response have design features to ensure the inclusion of women or other vulnerable categories? ⊲ How are benefits of regular social programs transferred to beneficiaries ? How quickly can the payment system handle a temporary expansion of coverage? Sources: World Bank 2021b; Smith and Bowen 2020; Bowen et al. 2020. FIGURE 2.4: Overview of the Data and Information Systems Building Block Source: Original figure for this publication. Note: Figure based on assessments completed in October 2021 in Burkina Faso; September 2022 in Chad; June 2022 in Mali; November 2021 in Mauritania; May 2022 in Niger; and January 2022 in Senegal. Progress realized since these assessments are reflected in the text. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 43 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE incorporating life-skills training and sensitization on aspirations KEY FINDING 8: and social norms led to decreases in tensions and increased in In the Sahel, routine safety net programs are boosting the empathy at the local level (Bossuroy et al. 2022). The impacts resilience and capacity of households to cope with shocks on social cohesion, can also be negative depending on program and provide a foundation for ASP, though their coverage design or implementation – limited coverage in areas of high remains limited. poverty incidence can led to tensions within communities (Della Guardia et al. 2022). Finally, ASP programs have shown important All countries in the region have developed routine social safety impacts on local economies, and are sometimes referred to as net programs, with varying degrees of coverage. There are local economic multipliers. While effects vary by type and scale of now noncontributory cash transfer programs across the Sahel, programs, each dollar invested in ASP programs can be expected providing routine support extremely poor and highly vulnerable to increase incomes in the local economy by between US$1.30 and households — an important shift from previous practices of more US$2.50 on average (an impact of between 130 and 250 percent), fragmented and ad hoc initiatives. Typically, the primary focus of based on evidence from African countries outside of the Sahel. these regular social safety nets is to reach households affected by extreme chronic poverty. Nonetheless, programs vary in scale. Coverage of regular safety nets is relatively high in some countries — approximately 20 percent of the total population (40–60 percent of the poorest two quantiles) in Mauritania, and approximately 15 percent of the population in Senegal. In contrast, the coverage in the remaining countries is relatively small and fragmented — including approximately 4 percent of the population in Burkina Faso, and approximately 8 percent of the poor in Niger. In Chad, only households from host communities are included in the program, in addition to refugee households. Limited coverage restricts the ability to scale up responses, particularly horizontally to new populations if shock-affected areas do not benefit from routine programs. In the Sahel, routine safety net programs have shown their ability to build the resilience of households to shocks and increase their productivity. There is growing evidence of the strong positive impacts of safety nets, even in fragile contexts (figure 2.5). Impacts are measured on beneficiaries — by their poverty and consumption (immediate situation), and by their productive capacity in the medium to long term. The rates of return of programs focused on boosting household productivity are very high, and their effects are sustained over time (Bossuroy et al. 2021). In the Sahel, most countries are significantly scaling up the implementation of productive inclusion accompanying measures. However, their coverage remains limited and only a subset of cash transfer beneficiaries are included. Safety net programs in the Sahel have also shown impacts on the human capital of children (and hence their future productivity as adults). Estimates suggest that investments in households’ resilience are more cost-effective than humanitarian assistance following shocks (droughts) (Venton 2018). Routine safety net programs can also have impacts beyond beneficiary households – on local communities and the economy. Beyond beneficiary households, programs have also shown impacts on social cohesion by alleviating some of the stress related to extreme poverty or vulnerability and reducing inequalities within communities, as well as promoting interactions that help reduce stereotypes, prejudices, and exclusion. For instance, social support and participation in associations or community actions increased among beneficiaries in Mauritania, while programs Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 44 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE FIGURE 2.5: Impacts of Social Safety Nets in the Sahel Source: Original figure for this publication. Routine safety net programs and their delivery systems have RECOMMENDATION 8: provided a platform for shock-response initiatives. Countries have Enhance the coverage of routine safety net programs to include adopted a variety of approaches to incorporate shock-response all chronically poor and vulnerable households and strengthen into their systems. In Mali, the explicit emphasis on adaptation the resilience-building properties of programs and resilience was operationalized through a vertical expansion of the regular safety net program (World Bank 2016). In Burkina FOR GOVERNMENTS: Faso, a top-up was provided to regular beneficiaries during the ⊲ Institutionalize the national regular safety net program. lean season. In addition to this vertical expansion (increased ⊲ Develop an expansion strategy for the safety net program support to beneficiaries of regular programs), other programs have to cover all chronically poor and vulnerable with regular also focused on horizontal expansions (reaching additional poor support. households who are particularly affected by shocks). In Mauritania, ⊲ Commit the national budget (and mobilize donor support) the Elmaouna program, a dedicated shock-responsive safety net to the national regular safety net program. program, provides unconditional cash transfers to vulnerable ⊲ Scale up economic inclusion and resilience programs for households impacted by covariate shocks, particularly droughts. beneficiaries of the national regular safety net program. In addition, the government is piloting a vertical and horizontal expansion of the national cash transfer program, Tekavoul, in FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS: response to shocks. In Senegal, response to shocks is implemented ⊲ Implementing partners to provide regular support through using the tools and delivery mechanisms developed for the well- national regular safety net programs or economic inclusion established national cash transfer program. programs when possible, and align interventions with national programs (modality, targeting, amounts, and so on) when obligated to deliver separately. ⊲ Financing partners to promote the use of national programs or alignment with national programs by implementing partners. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 45 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE Many elements of the delivery systems do not have the capacity to KEY FINDING 9: support shock-responses, which often puts them under additional Delivery systems are not ready to be harnessed for shock- pressure. This can affect all aspects of the delivery chain, which response in all countries of the Sahel, which constrains face additional strains in times of shocks (figure 2.6). In particular, governments’ ability to respond in a timely and cost- and as follows : effective manner. • Outreach and awareness. Systems of regular programs Prior planning and preparedness are critical for timely shock- typically inform beneficiaries on program schedules and responses and can increase cost-effectiveness. The effectiveness available grievance mechanisms, among others. In times of of shock-responses hinges on their timeliness — their ability to shock, these systems could be leveraged to inform households support households before they are forced to engage in negative on shock-response programs, their temporary nature, and coping strategies. To do so, countries need clearly defined rules for eligibility. In Mauritania, the communication systems protocols and processes and the capacity to respond. Responses of the Tekavoul program and the social registry are leveraged to the COVID-19 crises around the world show the importance by the shock-response programs (which have harmonized of investing in the foundations of social protection systems that communications). In Senegal, the staff supporting the delivery can deliver in a timely manner (box 2.13). For shocks that can of the national safety net program are often also contracted by be anticipated, programs could even aim to reach households humanitarian actors delivering emergency support, a double before they are affected, because early cash transfers have shown function which could be further leveraged. The outreach greater positive effects than transfers made later in the process. mechanisms can also provide information on shocks to help For example, anticipatory action ahead of floods in Bangladesh households prepare for them. However, in Chad, mechanisms was able to protect adult and child consumption over a long are fragmented and their inability to scale up quickly limits period and decreased the share of households that resorted to their potential use in times of shock. Similarly, in Burkina negative coping strategies (Pople et al. 2021). Niger has piloted Faso, information channels could be strengthened to reach an early response to the lean season, with assistance reaching the local level (for example, through vernacular languages beneficiaries months in advance (as early as March). This pilot or radio broadcasts) in times of shock. was based on satellite early warning indicators and predefined triggers and yielded significant impacts (see section on EWS). • Enrolment processes. Typically, enrolment processes for There is growing evidence of the cost effectiveness of investing regular programs include a series of steps, including as in systems and processes before shocks. follows: identification of households, inscription, preparation of program cards, inclusion in information systems, and so BOX 2.13 : SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS ARE CRITICAL on. Lengthy procedures are not adapted to rapid horizontal FOR TIMELY RESPONSES, EXPERIENCE FROM COVID-19 expansions. Digital payments can help, because phone CRISIS numbers of potential beneficiaries can be collected while households are being registered and later used to make transfers without the need to go back to the households, Data from the responses of 53 countries to the COVID-19 as was the case in Senegal in response to floods in 2022. pandemic showed that the main drivers of timely responses to shocks include the following: • Grievance redress mechanisms. Common criticisms for these accountability systems across the region include instances ⊲ Contextual issues, such as national identification coverage, of complaints not being recorded or addressed, failure to financial inclusion, and technological inclusion include multiple channels for reporting, limited awareness ⊲ Strong legal frameworks and available domestic funding within communities, and limited monitoring of their use. ⊲ Access to data and information, via high coverage and high- For instance, in Niger, the safety net program only uses quality social registries and social protection information village committees to handle grievances, although a toll-free systems number is being piloted. In Senegal, the grievance redress ⊲ Capacity to register people quickly, even for countries mechanism is functional, but there is limited awareness of this mechanism among beneficiaries and the population at that substantially rely on preexisting data, to ensure that large and most grievances are addressed by front line social those who have only recently become vulnerable due to workers. However, in Mauritania, there is a grievance redress a shock also have access to social protection mechanism with multiple channels, including a toll-free number ⊲ Use of digital solutions to speed up outreach, applications, and also a network of social workers. This mechanism serves enrolment, payments, and overall communication with the three national safety net programs, to avoid confusion beneficiaries and duplication, but awareness among the population still needs to be improved. Source: Beazley, Marzi, and Steller 2021. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 46 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE FIGURE 2.6 : Delivery Chain for Social Protection Programs Source: Lindert et al. 2020. There is a critical need to put in place mechanisms for scaling up RECOMMENDATION 9: and pre-positioning the required resources for shock response. Enhance government delivery systems so they can perform Most countries in the region still need to put in place operating their functions in times of shock and, as part of the national procedures for scaling up. These include predefining how the response plans, clarify ahead of shocks how they will be used. support will be organized, and reflecting this in operational guidelines, contracts, job descriptions, and so on. Governments can FOR GOVERNMENTS: predesign certain elements to address the additional burden that ⊲ Within established institutional arrangements, prepare will be placed on systems to implement responses to shocks. For the plan for shock-response and outline the human and instance, governments can design the communications materials financial resources needed to implement scale-up. that will be used to inform communities or predesign the trainings ⊲ Establish a scale-up protocol for different parts of the they will provide to those involved in the delivery of a response. delivery chain (outreach and communication, identification, Governments can also precontract the actors that will be relied registration, payment, management, and so on). upon for shock response. This includes preagreed contracts ⊲ Design shock-response interventions to provide support with payment agencies to deliver additional payments, as is the early, before impacts are felt, when feasible. case in Mauritania, or preagreed contracts with communications ⊲ Prepare the materials, tools, protocols, and staff for shock- channels. Governments can also preidentify additional human response ahead of the shock, to promote a timely and resources that can be utilized to respond to shocks, or preidentify rapid response. tasks that could be suspended to enable existing operational staff to focus on the response without disrupting regular programs. FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS: Finally, governments can build the capacity to surge as needed ⊲ Participate in government-led response preparedness into systems, such as the various information systems. initiatives and reflect agreements in own response planning. ⊲ Provide shock-response as part of the national response plan, delivering using government systems where possible and feasible; aligning with national systems otherwise. ⊲ Financing partners to promote delivery under the national response plans and through government programs or systems, when feasible and appropriate. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 47 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE a horizontal expansion also implies adding new beneficiaries who KEY FINDING 10: need to be registered for mobile methods. In areas with limited Payment systems across the Sahel can scale up, but mobile penetration, regular safety net programs have at times face challenges in timely delivery across cash and digital opted to distribute mobile phones or SIM cards — which may not modalities. be cost-effective (or feasible from a procurement perspective) — for temporary shock-response programs. As for mobile money, Cash in hand is still the main payment mechanism in routine safety certain countries, such as Mauritania, have regulations that require net programs in the Sahel, which limits the system’s ability to a national identification number to open a digital wallet, which flex in a timely manner in response to shocks. The most common constrains the adoption of that technology. Finally, a switch to approach is for governments to contract payment agencies, such digital payments could also create exclusion risks, particularly as microfinance institutions, post offices, and commercial banks, with financially or digitally illiterate individuals. In other parts of the to distribute cash directly to recipients. There are efforts to digitize world, ASP programs have found ways to address these barriers some aspects of the payment system, for instance beneficiaries and have thus been an opportunity to increase the penetration of are identified through a Quick Response (QR) code in Mauritania mobile and financial services when the size of the programs and (which also plans to pilot mobile payment in 2023 in Nouakchott). their regularity provide a basis for network expansion. But for the most part, cash for regular programs is physically handed over to beneficiaries, even in countries such as Senegal, where Irrespective of the technology adopted, the rigidity of contracts mobile payments have been piloted. Cash in hand processes can and procurement procedures can limit the ability of systems to be cumbersome and slow, because payment operators typically respond to shocks. Contracts with payment providers are often need to transport large amounts across vast territories and stagger limited to routine transfers. They typically do not include provisions payments across communities over time. For regular programs, for shocks. This constraint can be addressed, as in Mali, Mauritania, more than a month can be required to reach all beneficiaries. This and Niger, by establishing framework agreements that anticipate timeline can extend further during a response. For instance, in additional temporary payments. In such cases, emergency payment Niger, COVID-19 support was provided to 375,000 households services do not need to be procured and contracted specifically for (more than 12 times the number of regular beneficiaries), and delays each shock, which can greatly reduce delays in payment. To date, were observed, because payment systems were not established full convergence in the use of payment systems by governmental for such responses. actors and partners through unified payment platforms has not yet occurred in the Sahel. However, there were cases of actors using In the region, there has been some progress in establishing the same payment provider, as in Chad, where most humanitarian digital payment systems, which can help promote timely cash assistance programs used the same financial service provider shock responses. Card-based and mobile technologies provide as the government safety net program, albeit through separate opportunities for timely transactions, including to mobile and contracting procedures. Overall, there is untapped potential in displaced populations. Digital systems can also provide greater utilizing the collective negotiating power that comes with shared transparency, accountability, financial inclusion, and cost-efficiency platforms, which reduces costs and cuts delays. (Smith and Bowen 2020). Chad piloted digital payments in response to COVID-19 in N’Djamena, and Mauritania is planning to pilot RECOMMENDATION 10: digital payments in urban areas. Senegal provides digital shock- Enhance payment mechanisms to improve timeliness and response payments, and the program in Burkina Faso moved accountability, and ensure inclusion. from cash to digital payments (with cell phones and SIM cards distributed to all beneficiary households). Such digital systems FOR GOVERNMENTS : are highly relevant for routine programs in conflict contexts, as ⊲ Develop framework agreements with payment providers, well as for expansion in times of shock. which allow use for multiple programs or for easy scale-up in response to shocks and reduce transfer costs. Switching to digital payments and leveraging them for shock ⊲ Explore options for setting up a national payment platform response raises a series of challenges in the Sahel, particularly that could be used by all programs, using multiple providers. outside of urban areas. Opportunities for digital modalities are ⊲ Assess obstacles to adoption of digital payments, including limited beyond urban areas, because of limited infrastructure obstacles faced by potential beneficiaries, develop plan to (lack of broad-band mobile and internet connectivity), low mobile address them, and pilot digital payment options. penetration, stringent legal requirements (such as requirements ⊲ Identify options to improve the ability of existing payment for identification documents), which potentially have exclusionary systems to reach the poorest and most vulnerable efficiently effects. Even when digital transfers are feasible, mobile money and safely. is not always fully established in the local area, which means that beneficiaries must still withdraw cash and are not able to FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS : pay through a mobile wallet or application. Furthermore, mobile ⊲ Provide technical assistance on developing payment platforms transfers can only operate if there are enough payment points or deploying digital payment systems. with sufficient liquidity to cash out payments. In shock-response, ⊲ Use government payment systems or platforms when possible and align with the government approach otherwise. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 48 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE KEY FINDING 11: For example, in Mauritania, these committees are required to Inclusion challenges persist in the Sahel and need to have equal representation of women and men. Some programs be addressed before shocks, so that solutions can be deploy sensitization activities on social and gender norms in effectively implemented in the context of shock-responses. the community, to mitigate any potential pushback against Most routine safety nets have explicitly included a large share women being the primary program recipients and to minimize of women among their beneficiaries, but a gender focus is related intra-household or community tensions. harder to achieve during horizontal expansions. Many regular programs in the Sahel select women as their direct recipients, for Similarly, design elements have been considered, to maximize social safety nets and for productive inclusion initiatives. Women the impact of services provided. Many programs include a represent 70 percent and 75 percent of safety net beneficiaries human capital component, typically consisting of community in Mauritania and Senegal respectively, and nearly 90 percent of meetings for beneficiaries, as well as for men, on different recipients of productive inclusion measures in Niger. In Burkina topics around children, family, and gender. These meetings Faso, polygamous women are considered their own beneficiary provide information and messages on caregiving practices households, which means that the number of women recipients and roles, child development and health, girls’ education, exceeds the number of beneficiary households. As they build on management of family resources, coping strategies in times of existing programs, vertical expansions focus as strongly on women shock, and gender-based violence and reproductive health. In as the underlying routine program. For horizontal expansion, prioritizing women is dependent on their inclusion in social registries some countries, such as Niger, this component also includes as well as explicit efforts during the process of identification of new home visits to provide information to women on healthy child beneficiaries, requiring significant communication and sensitization development. of communities. Women may also lack identification documents (if needed, particularly for digital payments), which is hard to rectify The design of productive inclusion interventions is also during an emergency and should be addressed before crises, based on the constraints faced by women when engaging during preparedness activities. in income-generating activities. In addition to lack of capital and skills, key psychosocial constraints include the following : There are opportunities to develop stronger strategies to address the risks faced by women, which need to be seized during • Low education levels among women and high levels of early design phases. Shocks have a disproportionate impact on gender inequality women and girls and exacerbate gender inequalities. Crises can • Low self-esteem or limited aspirations among women increase women’s care responsibilities, disproportionately affect • Unequal social norms around gender women’s jobs and livelihoods, and increase the risk of violence against women and girls. A holistic approach to supporting women is necessary, before and during shocks. For instance, in Mali, a Women’s restricted mobility, limited control over household clear gender focus to address gender-specific risks has been resources, and disproportionate share of domestic and care introduced, with outreach, accompanying measures, and income- responsibilities further undermine their ability to engage in generating activities tailored to promote women’s participation. economic opportunities. As a result, key productive inclusion More generally, mechanisms to prioritize women’s access and interventions have included a series of psychosocial elements to ensure that program designs are gender-sensitive should be to foster an environment in which women were more supported included in the operational guidance or procedures of both regular and empowered to undertake new income-generating activities and temporary programs (including inclusion in social registries (Bossuroy et al. 2022). The psychosocial interventions included discussed earlier). Box 2.14 provides further examples. life skills training sessions and community sensitization sessions that were focused on increasing the acceptability of, and BOX 2.14 : DESIGN ELEMENTS TO PROMOTE GENDER building community support for, women’s engagement in INCLUSION AND ENSURE PROGRAM RELEVANCE, economic activities. EXAMPLES FROM THE SAHEL In the Sahel, efforts to ensure participation of other vulnerable Various design elements can be used to promote greater groups are not integrated in ASP programs and require early inclusion during the assessment and enrolment processes consideration. Vulnerable groups such as persons with disabilities, (figure 2.6). For instance, in most countries, women are involved the elderly, or orphans may not be systematically included in in the selection of cash transfer recipients, because village regular safety net programs. In the Sahel, these programs tend to focus on larger households with children, in view of their committees that identify and validate the list of poorest objectives of strengthening human capital. This is despite the households have minimum membership requirements for evidence that, on average, persons with disabilities have worse women. education, health, and employment outcomes and are more STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 49 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE vulnerable to shocks. Persons with disabilities can face substantial RECOMMENDATION 11: constraints to accessing and completing enrolment processes. Address the constraints faced by women, forcibly displaced Specific considerations must be already built into social registries households, and other vulnerable groups to clarify institutional and programs, to better ensure their inclusion and to promote responsibilities and embed operational solutions in the design designs that are adapted to their situations. This can be fostered and procedures of regular and shock-response programs. by prioritizing the interoperability with disability registries. A key lesson from COVID-19 from outside the region is that countries FOR GOVERNMENTS: with preexisting disability identification mechanisms and registries ⊲ Evaluate the constraints faced by vulnerable groups in were better positioned to deliver rapid assistance and scale up benefiting from regular safety net programs, economic social protection systems to provide support to persons with inclusion interventions, or shock-response support. disabilities (based on Banks et al. 2021; Sammon et al. 2021). ⊲ Identify and deploy adaptations to various steps of the delivery chain to promote inclusion of vulnerable groups Finally, in the Sahel, the inclusion of forcibly displaced population (outreach, identification, inclusion, delivery, grievances, groups is a growing challenge, though recent progress has been and so on). observed in some countries. This growing category of individuals ⊲ Closely monitor program delivery to identify potential are not typically included in government's regular safety nets, barriers to inclusion and timely delivery. productive inclusion, or shock-response transfer programs in the ⊲ Identify options to consider forcibly-displaced people for region. Rather, they are typically served by nongovernmental actors inclusion in programs. and international agencies, outside of government systems. One exception is Mauritania, which registered Malian refugees living FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS: in Nouakchott and M’Bera refugee camps in the social registry ⊲ Support the government in the identification and and considered them in the enrolment for the regular safety net implementation of solutions for the inclusion of vulnerable program and hence the shock response programs. Limitations in groups and the reduction of their barriers to access. the updating of the registry, however, constrain the inclusion of new arrivals (as a result, the percentage of refugees included in the regular program has decreased over time). Chad is a leader on the inclusion of forcibly displaced populations in the region, with an explicit focus on providing both routine and shock response 2.5 Finance : Key Findings support to refugees. The approach has a strong focus on ensuring both refugee populations and their host communities are served Progress on the Finance building block has been limited across in a manner that promotes social cohesion and inclusion (Box 2.15). most of the Sahel (Box 2.16, Figure 2.7). Apart from Mauritania, which can be considered to have reached a nascent stage of development with the establishment of the FNRCAN, the financing of ASP in BOX 2.15 : SUPPORTING REFUGEES AND HOST the Sahel remains ad hoc. For shock response interventions, COMMUNITIES IN CHAD countries in the Sahel occasionally enact budget reallocation but mostly count on support from development and humanitarian In Chad, one of the objectives of the government’s adaptive partners; however, these approaches are not efficient and can social protection (ASP) programs is to improve access to result in delayed or insufficient responses. The prioritization of livelihoods and safety nets by refugees and host communities. other building blocks relative to that of Finance is primarily due to the importance of building the capacity of country systems to The approach aims to transition from a humanitarian or disburse and deliver funds. emergency approach to a government-led approach and to ensure host communities are served concomitantly. When broadening the notion of financing to that of routine safety net programs, some countries display greater government In addition to the regular program, shock-responsive measures contributions. The stress test results presented above only reflect provide cash transfers to poor and vulnerable households living financing for shock responses. When also considering routine in areas that are prone to recurrent climate shocks, including safety net programs, which are a critical base for shock-responses, droughts and floods, and who face a high risk of acute food a different picture emerges. Specifically, in Senegal, transfers of insecurity. To date, two shock-responsive interventions (one- the regular safety net program, which is national in coverage, are time payments) have been implemented as follows: in 2021, a fully financed by the national budget. Similarly, in Mauritania, the first intervention in N’Djamena benefitted approximately 22,000 share of government financing for the routine national program is households; and in June 2022, a second intervention provided significant, and in Burkina Faso, plans anticipate a notable national support to a new wave of refugees from Cameroon and their government contribution. host communities, which provided support to approximately 23,000 refugee and host community households. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 50 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE Countries in the Sahel use a narrow set of shock-response financing instruments, besides budget reallocation and support BOX 2.16 : WHAT IS THE FOCUS OF THE FINANCE from partners. Countries in the region have focused on insurance- BUILDING BLOCK ? based instruments, such as African Risk Capacity (ARC). Since food insecurity from frequent, low-intensity shocks is a chronic To ensure that the adaptive social protection (ASP) system can issue in the Sahel, insurance mechanisms may not be the most meet increased needs following a shock, governments must appropriate interventions (they are best suited for less frequent, be able to rapidly mobilize — and disburse — the additional high-impact shocks). Alternative instruments, such as reserve resources required, in addition to the financing of regular funds, can be more appropriate. There are already examples of programs. Delays in the disbursement of disaster funding such tools in Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger, however these are not fully operational, still focus on food reserves and are yet to be increases the likelihood of vulnerable households adopting used for ASP. Finally, donors will continue to play an important role negative coping strategies and jeopardizing their resilience in the financing of shock response in the Sahel for the foreseeable in the medium- and long-term. future, and the establishment of financing instruments should account for this and serve to better coordinate the response. Some shocks are increasingly seen as predictable events that can be proactively planned for and managed, to ensure a timely response and to minimize their negative impact. Part of the solution to the financing challenge is for governments to develop a financing strategy before a shock occurs, which can be quickly activated in times of need. A risk financing strategy should fulfil the following: outline the financing instruments the government will draw upon to rapidly mobilize funding for the shock-response social protection interventions; outline the mechanisms that will trigger a response; and identify the interventions to be deployed. The Finance building block seeks to ascertain the government’s anticipation of their financing needs, that is, their ex ante financial planning. It seeks to answer the fundamental questions of whether the country knows how much money they will need and whether they have it earmarked to ensure they do not have to reallocate funds away from existing programs and development goals. Specifically, it asks four questions as follows: ⊲ Does the government have a national strategy, policy, or legislation setting out commitments to disaster risk financing? ⊲ Does the government have the capacity to analyze and model the potential cost implications of the shocks over time? ⊲ Is financing in place to ensure a timely response to disasters  ⊲ Are there systems or mechanisms which can be used for ASP interventions? Sources : World Bank 2021b; Smith and Bowen 2020; Bowen et al. 2020. Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 51 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE FIGURE 2.7: Delivery Chain for Social Protection Programs Source: Original figure for this publication* No countries in the Sahel have shock-response financing KEY FINDING 12: strategies in place. In many countries around the world, financing In the Sahel, financing for shock-response social protection strategies focus on the financing of responses to all disasters and is typically mobilized in an ad hoc and piecemeal manner, are implemented by multiple sectors. Although efforts to develop which can be costly and create significant delays. broad disaster financing strategies in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Senegal have been ongoing for several years, they have yet to Except for Mauritania, countries in the region have not put in be finalized. In the Sahel, capacity to model the potential cost place ex ante, or prearranged, financing instruments for ASP. implications of multiple shocks over time is limited, due in part Ex ante financial planning is based on an understanding of the risk to a lack of high-quality multiyear data. In addition, some shocks, profile of a country. It involves an assessment of the resources a such as conflicts or rises in food and input prices, cannot easily be country will need to address shocks and the identification of ex ante quantified. Even when the financial modelling of shock response options to finance the programs. In Mauritania, the FNRCAN was has been developed, as in Senegal, it has not yet been applied recently established to function as a contingency fund to finance to ASP. In Niger, a financial model for the ASP-based drought shock-response using ASP programs and systems (Box 2.17). In response pilot program has been developed but has not yet 2022, the government of Mauritania set aside its first budget for been used to develop dedicated financing instruments. Finally, the response to food insecurity during the lean season. These the institutional focus and related roles and responsibilities in achievements underpin the status of Mauritania as the strongest many of the Sahelian countries is on food insecurity, rather than performer in the region on this building block. a broad approach to all disasters. Sahel countries might therefore consider starting with financing strategies that have a narrower focus on shock-response implemented through social protection BOX 2.17 : THE NEW CONTINGENCY FINANCING FUND IN programs (Box 2.18). MAURITANIA The Government of Mauritania has introduced a new institutional and operational framework for the coordination and funding of responses to food security crises in the country. Established as part of this reform, as the financial backbone of this framework, the Fond National de Réponse aux Crises Alimentaires et Nutritionnelles (the National Food and Nutrition Crisis Response Fund; the FNRCAN) aligns and optimizes the financing for responses to food security crises. The FNRCAN is expected to provide a mechanism to facilitate the channelling and pooling of government and partner resources, which can then be mobilized to address food security emergencies in a timely and effective manner. Photo credit: From WorldBank *Note: Figure based on assessments completed in October 2021 in Burkina Faso; September 2022 in Chad; June 2022 in Mali; November 2021 in Mauritania; May 2022 in Niger; and January 2022 in Senegal. Progress realized since these assessments are reflected in the text. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 52 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE mobilized ex post, they often arrive with delay and are typically BOX 2.18 : WHAT FOCUS FOR A SHOCK-RESPONSE ASP insufficient relative to needs. In term of coverage, only an estimated FINANCING STRATEGY IN THE SAHEL? 61 percent of the people identified as in need of emergency assistance in 55 percent of affected municipalities were supported in 2022 in Burkina Faso. More generally, a 2011 analysis showed Many African countries prepare comprehensive financing that in Sub-Saharan Africa, external humanitarian support after strategies that cover all major disaster risks and related costs droughts arrived, on average, only seven to nine months after across all sectors, including in Kenya, Malawi, and Mozambique. their occurrence, and often in amounts which did not reflect the In contrast, in the Sahel, governments might consider starting scale of needs. small and developing a financing strategy for specific risks, costs, and sectors. The development of prearranged financing for ASP is constrained by the nascent nature of ASP systems in most Sahel countries. There are multiple reasons for this. First, data limitations Before dedicated financing instruments are established, the ability constrain the estimation of costs resulting from specific of safety nets and the social protection systems to respond to disasters. Regionally standardized assessments (Cadre shocks must be robustly established. This requires the underlying Harmonisé, Harmonized Framework) focus on food insecurity, safety nets to be functioning reliably and with broad coverage, and and do not differentiate among the causes or shocks that that clear shock response protocols and capacity are established. led to insecurity. In addition, some of the major shocks that However, only Mauritania and Senegal have achieved broad coverage of registries and social safety net programs and mobilized Sahel countries are exposed to are not easily quantifiable, for sufficient political buy-in to devote significant domestic resources example, conflicts or price shocks, and hence cannot be easily to their financing. The strength of the social protection delivery included in a comprehensive disaster risk financing strategy. system remains nascent in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger. Finally, institutional structures in Sahel countries may be less This applies also to the public financial management systems in conducive to adopting and implementing comprehensive place in the countries. Gaps in the financial management systems disaster risk financing strategies covering all risks, costs, and often preclude timely allocation and use of resources, as well as sectors. All Sahel countries have chosen to establish food efficient and transparent expenditure tracking and analysis. Thus, security response agencies, rather than disaster response the most urgent agenda in most Sahelian countries is to establish agencies. This differs from countries in which chronic food strong safety net programs and delivery systems, before turning insecurity is lower and response agencies focus on a variety to the financing of shock-response scalability. of natural hazards, for example in Mozambique. Taking the existing institutional landscape in the Sahel into RECOMMENDATION 12: account, it may be more practical to start by implementing a Identify options to establish prearranged financing instruments program-specific financing strategy, rather than a comprehensive for shock-response programs using social protection national disaster risk financing strategy. Adaptive safety nets mechanisms. can be a useful starting point for this. Such a strategy would outline how scale-ups of the existing safety net would be FOR GOVERNMENTS: financed for different types of shocks. If a Sahel government ⊲ Collect and analyze information on past food insecurity seeks to draft a broader strategy spanning multiple existing and shocks, to assess country risk profiles and financing or potentially additional programs, it may be more relevant needs. ⊲ Ensure national response plans allocate funds for to establish a food security financing strategy, rather than a interventions that use ASP mechanisms. disaster risk financing strategy. ⊲ Ensure ASP financing mechanisms are ready to be deployed in response to shocks. Source: Lung 2022. FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS: ⊲ Provide technical and financial assistance on national and Due to limited ex ante financing, shock response is often financed regional data collection, and analysis efforts on shocks, with significant delays, through ex post international financing impacts, and costs. or domestic mobilization. Resorting to ex post financing can be ⊲ Ensure emergency financing agreements allow costly. For instance, ex post domestic mobilization via budget implementing partners to align their responses with reallocation can cause significant stress given limited fiscal national delivery systems and programs. spaces – the 2012 food security crisis resulted in a 10 percent reallocation of the national budget and a deficit equivalent to 4 percent of GDP in Mauritania, straining public finances (World Bank 2019). International funding may fill a crucial gap, but when STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 53 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE programs — for example, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Senegal each KEY FINDING 13: have Fonds National de Solidarité (national contingency funds) To date, most risk financing instruments adopted in the aimed at providing social assistance during times of stress but Sahel have been insurance-based, although reserve they are not all fully functional yet. instruments may be more adapted to the region’s risk profile. Some countries have adopted sovereign drought insurance RECOMMENDATION 13: policies, but these are not specifically focused on financing ASP. Focus on instruments that are commensurate with the risk A key actor is ARC, which is a specialized agency of the African profile of the Sahel and ensure that contingency instruments are Union that provides sovereign insurance solutions for its member set up to support social protection shock-response programs. states. All six countries of the Sahel are ARC member states and are participating in the African Development Bank (AfDB) Africa FOR GOVERNMENTS: Disaster Risk Financing (ADRiFi) Programme, which has been ⊲ Prepare a risk financing strategy, either nationally or subsidizing ARC policies in all countries since 2019. The ARC for ASP shock-response mechanisms specifically, with sovereign drought insurance policy has provided recent payouts to instruments adapted to the country’s risk profile. Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal. However, these funds were not ⊲ Develop and institutionalize financial instruments aligned used to finance responses through social protection programs, but with risk profile, for example combining a national rather spent through parallel government interventions. In parallel, contingency fund and sovereign risk transfer. non-governmental actors did not align responses financed form ⊲ Establish clear rules for disbursement of funds as per risk ARC Replica payouts with the national social protection system, for financing strategy. example in Senegal. In addition, many countries faced the challenge of continuing to pay their premiums before the support from the FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS: ADRiFi. As a result, in some years, payouts were not triggered ⊲ Provide technical assistance for the development of a despite the occurrence of a drought. In addition to ARC, most financing strategy adapted to the country’s risk profile. governments in the Sahel are working on agricultural insurance, either via an established national program, as in Senegal, or national pilot programs, as in Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. KEY FINDING 14: Given the climate vulnerability profile of the Sahel, policy Financing for regular and shock-response ASP programs in makers should consider alternative risk financing instruments the Sahel will require a mix of domestic and international to insurance, such as reserve funds. The Sahel region is marked funding for the foreseeable future. by extreme climate vulnerability and countries are faced with high food insecurity every year. Large numbers of households are poor and work in agriculture, most in subsistence agriculture, and are All Sahel countries, especially the four central Sahelian countries, therefore exposed to droughts. Insurance can be a cost-effective are dependent on external support to respond to humanitarian mechanism to manage infrequent and extreme risks or exceptional needs, something that is unlikely to change in the short to shocks, but is not the most appropriate tool for regular or annual medium term. Together, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger food insecurity crises. From a financial perspective, contingency request international food security-related humanitarian support funds, for example in the form of dedicated national response of approximately US$1 billion annually, and receive, on average funds, tend to be more suited. This is the approach Mauritania approximately US$360 million. Disaster-response efforts are has begun to adopt with the FNRCAN (Box 2.17). often almost entirely donor-financed (Hoglund Giertz et al. 2022), although countries have recently begun financing parts of the Some countries also have contingency instruments in place, regular and shock-response programs from national budgets. but these predominantly focus on food distribution rather than Mauritania and Senegal currently finance significant parts of their cash transfers made through ASP programs. In the late 1980s regular and shock-response social protection programs from and early 1990s, financial reserves for food security were set up national budgets, and Burkina Faso has committed to providing in Burkina Faso, Chad, and Niger. These reserves are coresourced significant resources to the national safety net program in the and comanaged by the respective governments and donors. While coming years. With climate change, disasters are expected to occur their operating modalities differ, these funds are active to this day more frequently and become more severe, thus disaster-related and represent one of the main food security financing vehicles in humanitarian needs are likely to increase over time, while national the three countries (ECOWAS 2011). In 2022, the governments of fiscal space remains limited. It is therefore likely that governments Burkina Faso and Niger, along with the donor community, began in the region will continue to require external support to cope efforts to reform various aspects of these funds, which could with disaster costs for the foreseeable future. This will likely be present an opportunity to include financing windows for transfers the case, even if potential efficiency gains through more effective through ASP programs. Some governments have other funds financing instruments materialize. in place, which could be reformed to support social protection STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 54 PROGRESS ON THE FOUR BUILDING BLOCKS FOR ASP: A MIXED PICTURE Risk financing instruments and strategies in the Sahel should RECOMMENDATION 14: explicitly account for continued donor contributions. Financing Put in place financial instruments for shock-response using instruments and strategies in the Sahel need to account for the ASP mechanisms that enable government and donor reality of continued external dependence. This can be done in contributions, thereby boosting the leadership of governments various ways. For example, instruments can be designed to be and coordination of partners. cofinanced by governments and external partners. If such funds are governed by appropriate predefined rules, they can provide FOR GOVERNMENTS : a more predictable and possibly cost-effective way to finance ⊲ Design financial instruments such that they can receive disaster costs than ad hoc assistance. They can also help to funds from government and partners. better coordinate and channel all resources allocated to disaster response. Another possibility is to specifically allocate certain risks FOR DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS : or layers of risks to donor partners. A financing strategy will more ⊲ Channel funds for shock-response through national effectively include donor contributions if it specifically states what financial instruments in line with the adopted risk financing they are expected to finance. Such strategies would thus require strategy. Align calendars for allocating emergency funding not only approval by the government, but they would also have with the national response planning cycle to promote to be developed in coordination with, and agreed, to by donors. timely support. ⊲ Contribute to shock-response financing instruments over Some countries are developing instruments that receive the medium to long term, decreasing the share of ad hoc contributions from government and donors, which could form fund raising. the basis for broader donor-inclusive financing approaches. Sahelian countries have financial reserves for food security that benefit from both domestic and donor funds. These can serve as a basis upon which to build more ASP-oriented contingency funds that would accommodate donor contributions alongside government shock response budgets. The FNRCAN in Mauritania has achieved this. This fund is mandated with the consolidation of resources mobilized by the government and its partners to finance the annual National Response Plan. Rather than receive separate and disparate contributions, the government manages donor support and the response to food insecurity through the FNRCAN. Photo credit: From WorldBank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 55 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 3. Conclusions and Recommendations Countries in the Sahel have made significant progress toward are typically insufficient, with limited government mobilization of establishing ASP systems. All countries have regular safety net domestic resources for routine interventions. Similarly, resources programs that deliver cash to a certain number of beneficiaries in a for shock-response are often both insufficient and delayed, with routine manner, and all countries have piloted vertical or horizontal limited mobilization ahead of crises. expansions, particularly in response to food insecurity and, in some cases, to floods and forced displacement. Countries in the The key findings and recommendations from this report can region are also piloting innovative approaches to EWS, program provide a roadmap for ASP development in the region, however design, program triggers, and payments. Mauritania and Senegal this will require concerted efforts from both governments and are at the forefront of this progress, particularly on the Data and partners. The good practices and innovations from the region Information and Programs and Delivery Systems building blocks can inspire governments and partners to prioritize investments in of the ASP framework. Both countries are implementing national- ASP systems, bring existing routine programs to full scale, foster scale registries and programs, and most of the extremely poor greater resilience and productivity among the poor and vulnerable, households are included in social registries and many of them prevent irreparable losses in human and productive capacity, and benefit from routine safety nets. Although Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, respond to shocks in a cost-efficient manner. and Niger have the ambition to set up national ASP systems and have made progress, their overall ASP systems remain nascent. In each country, a concerted and carefully sequenced plan of These countries also face greater poverty and security challenges, actions needs to be applied across building blocks. A focus on which present political, financial, and logistical hurdles. operationalization is required, because in many cases, systems, policies, or delivery mechanisms have been established but not Progress is not uniform across countries or building blocks and fully implemented. The following tables (table 3.1, table 3.2, table important challenges remain in terms of scale, timeliness, and 3.3, and table 3.4) present a summary of the recommendations inclusivity. All countries have either established a social registry emerging from the report for each of the four building blocks of or the foundations of a social registry, but the static (nondynamic) ASP: (1) Institutional Arrangements and Partnerships, (2) Data and approach to data collection and limited geographic coverage result Information, (3) Programs and Delivery Systems, and (4) Finance. in progressively obsolete and potentially incomplete data, making Each country will need to identify priority recommendations on it difficult for countries to identify poor and vulnerable households the basis of its own progress and challenges, as well as capacity affected by shocks. The limited coverage of programs remains a and partnerships. These recommendations focus on actions critical constraint to the adoption of a more mature approach to by governments and actions by their donors and implementing ASP in four of the assessed countries – Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, partners. Indeed, in addition to government efforts, it is essential and Niger. All countries have piloted shock-response interventions for partners that contribute to the financing or implementation of to food insecurity and COVID-19 crises, with Niger and Senegal ASP in the region to continue to provide support to governments having also piloted a response to floods and Chad having piloted a and align with their ASP programs, delivery systems, coordinating response to a sudden influx of refugees from Cameroon. However, mechanisms, and financing strategies. Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, and Niger still struggle with providing regular programs to the poorest and most vulnerable at scale, and timely and adequate responses to those affected by shocks. Horizontal expansion — providing support to poor and vulnerable households affected by shocks who do not benefit from regular safety net programs (or are not included in the social registries) — is proving very difficult. Furthermore, the low penetration of digital payment systems, and barriers to access for some beneficiaries, hinders countries from adopting modern payment systems. In most countries in the Sahel, the institutional landscape for ASP lacks strong anchoring, clear roles, and robust coordination mechanisms for government agencies and external partners involved in shock or disaster risk management. Finally, Finance is the building block with the least progress across all countries. The financial resources required to bring regular programs and systems to scale STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 56 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS TABLE 3.1: Recommendations for the Institutional Arrangements and Partnerships Building Block GOVERNMENT DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS Recommendation 1 : Incorporate shock-response functions and instruments in national social protection strategies and include ASP programs as response vehicles in national shock-response plans. • Increase awareness, among all development and humanitarian actors, of the role that ASP instruments (including social registry and payment mechanisms) and programs can play • Expand the focus of national social protection strategies beyond in contributing to shock-response. chronic issues such as structural poverty and vulnerability, to include building resilience and responding to shocks. • Coordinate around joint messaging on the role of ASP (regular safety net, resilience or economic inclusion, and shock- • Integrate ASP as a key component of disaster risk management response interventions) and their inclusion in national policies. and include as a response mechanism in contingency planning and national food insecurity response plans. • Promote operationalization of policy commitment to provide support through national systems where possible, and align with national systems otherwise. Recommendation 2 : Define roles and responsibilities and establish coordination mechanisms among a broader range of ASP actors and with other governmental and non-governmental DRM actors. • Define mandates and roles of institutions responsible for social • Provide technical and financial support to national coordination protection, shock response, and DRM. mechanisms, including through adequate human resources. • Establish or streamline national coordination mechanisms and • Participate in the coordination mechanisms. ensure participation of government and nongovernmental • Identify operational modalities to progressively deploy actors as relevant, based on the shock. interventions within the national framework. Recommendation 3: Strengthen the government leadership and convening role on ASP and promote the alignment or integration of financial and operational partners’ support within national systems. • Participate in the national coordination mechanism and in the elaboration of the national response plan. • Streamline the elaboration process of the national response • Identify opportunities for harmonization of programs and plan and lead its implementation, anchoring the process in a collaboration. collaborative approach. • Support the implementation of the national response plan by providing support through national programs, using national systems, or, at a minimum, aligning with national parameters. Source: Original table for this publication. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 57 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS TABLE 3.2: Recommendations for the Data and Information Building Block GOVERNMENT DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS Recommendation 4: Expand the coverage of social registries to all geographic areas and all households vulnerable to shocks, to ensure they can be leveraged for shock response. • Develop and implement a national social registry expansion strategy in line with patterns of vulnerability, food insecurity and displacement, to ensure households in extreme poverty or • Support analysis to improve understanding of vulnerability vulnerable to shocks or food insecurity are included. to food insecurity and shocks (including drought and floods, • Update the data collection protocol and instruments, to among others) and inform social registry coverage expansion ensure all relevant variables are included (to proxy poverty and questionnaires or variables. and vulnerability) and to respond to the needs of all potential • Support the development of the social registry expansion user programs. strategy to ensure adequate coverage. • Identify mechanisms to address constraints linked to insecurity and displacement. Recommendation 5 : Operationalize protocols to regularly update social registry data, assessing the feasibility of combining administrator-driven methods, on-demand intake modalities, and the use of administrative records through interoperability • Develop protocols to regularly update the social registry that combine administrator-driven and on-demand intake modalities. • Identify options to streamline social registry questionnaires and data collection processes to facilitate regular updating • Provide technical support for the design of updating protocols. while ensuring social registries serve the needs of existing • Provide multiyear support in line with government social and potential users. registry expansion and updating strategy and in coordination • Explore options for dynamic updating through interoperability with other partners. with other information systems and sources of administrative records (identification, health, education, tax, and telecoms, among others). • Develop a multiyear strategy to expand and regularly update the social registry and to plan for human and financial resources. Recommendation 6 : Promote the use of social registry data among a range of actors by ensuring its quality and relevance, and establishing adequate data privacy and sharing protocols. • Institutionalize social registries to ensure their sustainability with an adequate legal framework. • Encourage use of social registries, by ensuring they address • Use the social registry to determine the potential eligibility of the needs of programs in terms of coverage, data quality, and all ASP interventions, when possible (implementing partners). variables. • Where the social registry is not yet sufficient, use the social • Assess the data privacy and protection status of the social registry questionnaire and methodology and contribute to registry, and improve protocols as needed. its expansion. • Establish data-sharing protocols between the social registry, • Encourage or demand implementing partners to use the social user programs, and other relevant stakeholders. registry when possible, and use its methodology otherwise (donors). • Develop an outreach campaign to inform potential users about the social registry and its potential use. • Establish a working group for technical users, to identify areas Source: Original table for this publication. for improvement. Recommendation 7 : Enhance government ownership, institutionalization and functionality of EWS to ensure they inform the elaboration of national response plans and guide program design. • Promote adjustments to the Cadre Harmonisé, to allow for • Provide investments and technical assistance for quantitative enhanced objectivity and speed (using technology such as risk assessments, for improvements of early warning data satellite data) and ensure adequate human and financial accuracy and speed, and for linking early warning with early resources. action. • Strengthen early warning mechanisms beyond food security, • Support the incorporation of adjustments to the Cadre for hazards such as droughts and floods. Harmonisé to enhance objectivity and speed. • Anchor the formulation of the national response plans in early • Channel shock-response support in line with the national warning data, predefining actions linked to established triggers, response plan based on early warning data, or use early such as safety net scale-ups. warning data to design shock-response interventions. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 58 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS TABLE 3.3: Recommendations for the Programs and Delivery Systems Building Block GOVERNMENT DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS Recommendation 8 : Enhance the coverage of routine safety net programs to include all chronically poor and vulnerable households and strengthen the resilience-building properties of programs. • Institutionalize the national regular safety net program. • Implementing partners to provide regular support through • Develop an expansion strategy for the safety net program to national regular safety net programs or economic inclusion cover all chronically poor and vulnerable with regular support. programs when possible, and align interventions with national programs (modality, targeting, amounts, and so on) when • Commit the national budget (and mobilize donor support) to obligated to deliver separately. the national regular safety net program. • Financing partners to promote the use of national programs or • Scale up economic inclusion and resilience programs for alignment with national programs by implementing partners. beneficiaries of the national regular safety net program Recommendation 9 : Enhance government delivery systems so they can perform their functions in times of shock and, as part of the national response plans, clarify ahead of shocks how they will be used. • Within established institutional arrangements, Prepare the plan for shock-response and outline the human and financial resources needed to implement scale-up. • Participate in government-led response preparedness initiatives and reflect agreements in own response planning. • Establish a scale-up protocol for different parts of the delivery chain (outreach and communication, identification, registration, • Provide shock-response as part of the national response plan, payment, management, and so on). delivering using government systems where possible and feasible; aligning with national systems otherwise. • Design shock-response interventions to provide support early, before impacts are felt, when feasible. • Financing partners to promote delivery under the national response plans and through government programs or systems, • Prepare the materials, tools, protocols, and staff for shock- when feasible and appropriate. response ahead of the shock, to promote a timely and rapid response. Recommendation 10 : Enhance payment mechanisms to improve timeliness and accountability, and ensure inclusion. • Develop framework agreements with payment providers, which allow use for multiple programs or for easy scale-up in response to shocks and reduce transfer costs. • Explore options for setting up a national payment platform • Provide technical assistance on developing payment platforms that could be used by all programs, using multiple providers. or deploying digital payment systems. • Assess obstacles to adoption of digital payments, including • Use government payment systems or platforms when possible, obstacles faced by potential beneficiaries, develop plan to and align with the government approach otherwise. address them, and pilot digital payment options. • Identify options to improve the ability of existing payment systems to reach the poorest and most vulnerable efficiently and safely. Recommendation 11 : Address the constraints faced by women, forcibly displaced households, and other vulnerable groups, to clarify institutional responsibilities and embed operational solutions in the design or procedures of regular and shock-response programs. • Evaluate the constraints faced by vulnerable groups in benefiting from regular safety net programs, economic inclusion interventions, or shock-response support. • Identify and deploy adaptations to various steps of the delivery chain to promote inclusion of vulnerable groups (outreach, • Support the government in the identification and implementation identification, inclusion, delivery, grievances, and so on). of solutions for the inclusion of vulnerable groups and the reduction of their barriers to access. • Closely monitor program delivery to identify potential barriers to inclusion and timely delivery. • Identify options to consider forcibly-displaced people for inclusion in programs. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 59 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Recommendation 10 : Enhance payment mechanisms to improve timeliness and accountability, and ensure inclusion. • Develop framework agreements with payment providers, which allow use for multiple programs or for easy scale-up in response to shocks and reduce transfer costs. • Explore options for setting up a national payment platform • Provide technical assistance on developing payment platforms that could be used by all programs, using multiple providers. or deploying digital payment systems. • Assess obstacles to adoption of digital payments, including • Use government payment systems or platforms when possible, obstacles faced by potential beneficiaries, develop plan to and align with the government approach otherwise. address them, and pilot digital payment options. • Identify options to improve the ability of existing payment systems to reach the poorest and most vulnerable efficiently and safely. Recommendation 11 : Address the constraints faced by women, forcibly displaced households, and other vulnerable groups, to clarify institutional responsibilities and embed operational solutions in the design or procedures of regular and shock-response programs. • Evaluate the constraints faced by vulnerable groups in benefiting from regular safety net programs, economic inclusion interventions, or shock-response support. • Identify and deploy adaptations to various steps of the delivery chain to promote inclusion of vulnerable groups (outreach, • Support the government in the identification and implementation identification, inclusion, delivery, grievances, and so on). of solutions for the inclusion of vulnerable groups and the reduction of their barriers to access. • Closely monitor program delivery to identify potential barriers to inclusion and timely delivery. • Identify options to consider forcibly-displaced people for inclusion in programs. Source: Original table for this publication. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 60 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS TABLE 3.4: Recommendations for the Finance Building Block GOVERNMENT DONORS AND IMPLEMENTING PARTNERS Recommendation 12 : Identify options to establish prearranged financing instruments for shock-response programs using social protection mechanisms. • Collect and analyze information on past food insecurity and • Provide technical and financial assistance on national and shocks, to assess country risk profiles and financing needs. regional data collection, and analysis efforts on shocks, • Ensure national response plans allocate funds for interventions impacts, and costs. that use ASP mechanisms. • Ensure emergency financing agreements allow implementing • Ensure ASP financing mechanisms are ready to be deployed partners to align their responses with national delivery systems in response to shocks. and programs. Recommendation 13 : Focus on instruments that are commensurate with the risk profile of the Sahel, and ensure contingency instruments are setup to support social protection shock-response programs. • Prepare a risk financing strategy, either nationally or for ASP shock-response mechanisms specifically, with instruments adapted to the country’s risk profile. • Develop and institutionalize financial instruments aligned with • Provide technical assistance for the development of a financing risk profile, for example combining a national contingency fund strategy adapted to the country’s risk profile. and sovereign risk transfer. • Establish clear rules for disbursement of funds as per risk financing strategy. Recommendation 14 : Put in place financial instruments for shock-response using ASP mechanisms that enable government and donor contributions, thereby boosting the leadership of governments and coordination of partners. • Channel funds for shock-response through national financial instruments in line with the adopted risk financing strategy. Align calendars for allocating emergency funding with the • Design financial instruments such that they can receive funds national response planning cycle to promote timely support. from government and partners. • Contribute to shock-response financing instruments over the medium to long term, decreasing the share of ad hoc fund raising. Source: Original table for this publication.  STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 61 APPENDIX A APPENDIX A : SOCIAL PROTECTION STRESS TEST TOOL AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE SAHEL The social protection stress test aims to assess the adaptiveness allows the team to quantify the challenges facing the system and of social protection systems, in particular their ability to respond understand the scale of vertical or horizontal expansion needed. to shocks. It provides a framework with which users can convene Part Two “Scalability and adaptiveness of social protection” focuses relevant stakeholders to engage in informed discussions around on key elements of an ASP system. It seeks to capture the level potential gaps in their social protection programs and systems, of preparedness of the social protection system to respond to so that solutions can be explored and implemented. heightened needs. It provides scores (quantitative measures) The social protection stress test is composed of two parts. Part and descriptive scales with a stylized high-level description of One “Scenario building and assessing needs” examines the main systems based on their scores (qualitative). The questionnaire sources of risk and prevalent shocks that a given country faces is presented below. and provides an estimate of the number of people in need of support in the aftermath of different types and intensities of In the Sahel, the assessments were based a series of ten workshops shocks. Discussing and clarifying likely scenarios for scaling up (table A.1), that were comprised of government authorities, UNICEF, social protection enables the country team to agree on the types WFP, and the World Bank, between October 2021 and September of shock that are most important to consider and has implications 2022. for the types of EWS needed and the speed of support. It also TABLE A.1: Social Protection Stress Test Workshop Details COUNTRY WORKSHOP TYPE DATE PARTICIPANTS Burkina Faso First workshop (virtual October 202 the World Bank, UNICEF, WF the World Bank First workshop (virtual) November 2021 Chad the government of Chad and Second workshop (in-person) September 2022 the World Bank the World Bank, UNICEF, WFP, First workshop (virtual) November 2021 Mali the government of Mali, the Second workshop (virtual) June 2022 World Bank, UNICEF, and WFP the government of Mauritania Mauritania Workshop (in-person November 202 and the World Ban the World Bank, UNICEF, WFP First workshop (virtual) October 2021 Niger the government of Niger, the Second workshop (in-person) May 2022 World Bank, UNICEF, and WFP the World Bank First workshop (virtual) October 2021 Senegal the government of Senegal Second workshop (virtual) January 2022 and the World Bank STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 62 APPENDIX A TABLE A.2: Social Protection Stress Test Workshop Details QUESTIONS ANSWERS BUILDING BLOCK: INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS AND PARTNERSHIPS GOVERNMENT LEADERSHIP • No (adaptive) social protection or DRM strategy / policy =1 • Strategies/policies exist, but are outdated or social protection and DRM do not link to each other, and ASP not mentioned=2 • Up to date strategies / policies exists with some recognition Is there any government policy or strategy that of the role of ASP in DRM (or vice versa) = 3 1 recognizes the role of (adaptive) social protection in • Relevant social protection and DRM strategies exist with disaster risk management ? strong complementarity and links to some legislation and fiscal commitments =4 • Clear and reinforcing commitment to ASP in social protection and DRM strategies supported by appropriate legislation and fiscal commitments = 5 • No=1 • There is a plan, but it was never activated during a shock/ not consistently activated OR there is a plan, but it is outdated and does not incorporate risk assessments=2 Is there a contingency plan or response plan (whether • There is an up-to-date plan which is/would be activated but does not have fully actionable implementation roadmap for an drafted by the government or not, it is recognized as effective response and is not periodically reviewed nor tested=3 2 such in times of crisis), with links to risk assessment • There is an up to date, comprehensive and relevant plan which determines the actions to be taken in case of for some shock(s), which includes risk assessment and one of the shocks identified in Part One ? scenario building which has been tested, is actionable and implementation-ready=4 • There is a plan for each/all shocks (including an action plan for unanticipated shocks), and clear guidelines as to when it is/ would be activated and up to date and is tested/implemented regularly and refined = 5 • There are no government led ASP activities — all is led by humanitarian partners without coordination with social protection or DRM = 1 • Government (social protection and/or DRM) and nongovernmental agencies run parallel ASP initiatives without coordination = 2 • Government (social protection and/or DRM) and nongovernmental agencies run parallel ASP initiatives with ad hoc postdisaster How effectively does the government lead the coordination = 3 3 response plan and implementation ? • Government social protection and DRM have functioning institutionalized linkages and coordination (sharing data and information and coordinate on response based on respective roles) but no coordination with nongovernmental agencies=4 • Government social protection and DRM have functioning institutionalized linkages and coordination (sharing data and information and coordinate on response based on respective roles) and a coordination mechanism with nongovernmental agencies is functional = 5 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 63 APPENDIX A INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS • No agency tasked =1 • No formal responsibility designated, but many agencies respond using their own systems and processes =2 Is there a public agency which is formally tasked with • Several agencies tasked with response of some shock(s) (overlapping mandates) with limited level of coordination=3 1 leading the social protection? shock response efforts (for the shocks identified in Part One)? • Clear responsibility and roles for some shock(s) assigned to agency(ies) though not for all shocks =4 • One agency tasked with shock response (or multiple agencies with designated roles and responsibilities) and covers all the shocks =5 • No linkages: social protection actors (or agency) do not have an active role and/or do not have coordination mechanism with DRM actors=1 • Ad hoc linkages (not institutionalized), OR coordination institutionalized but in reality, social protection counterparts still struggle to coordinate with DRM counterparts=2 Is there a coordination mechanism or institutionalized linkage between DRM (or institutionalized system • Mostly functioning institutionalized linkages and coordination 2 between social protection and DRM for some shock(s) only responsible for shock response) and social protection (social protection and DRM counterparts share data and agencies (for the shocks identified in Part One) ? information and coordinate on response based on respective roles for some shock only) =3 • Mostly functioning institutionalized linkages and coordination between social protection and DRM actors for most shocks =4 • Strong linkages and institutionalized coordination mechanisms between social protection and DRM for all shocks=5 BUILDING BLOCK: FINANCE • No disaster risk financing strategy or policy document/s exist = 1 • Disaster risk financing policy document/s are under development, or if they exist are outdated and not linked to any ASP interventions= 2 Does the Government have a national strategy, policy • Some disaster risk financing policies or strategies exist but not 1 or legislation setting out commitments to disaster risk backed by legislation or financial instruments = 3 financing ? • Disaster risk financing policy exists for at least one shock and some legislative / financial commitments in place = 4 • Clear disaster risk financing strategy exists for wide range of shocks with supporting legal / financial instruments in place that mention ASP interventions = 5 • No systems exist = 1 • No, but the government is actively building capacity in this area = 2 • Yes, an analysis has been performed based on historical data Does the government have ability to analyze and for a/some shock(s), including ASP scale-up plans = 3 2 model the potential cost implications of the shocks • Yes, an analysis has been performed based on historical data identified in Part One over time ? as per ASP scale-up plans for some shocks and is owned by the Government = 4 • Yes, an analysis has been performed based on historical data as per ASP scale-up plans for all shocks and is owned by the Government = 5 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 64 APPENDIX A • No specific financing instruments earmarked, response fully dependent upon budget reallocation and external aid = 1 • Some disaster funding earmarked but fully dependent upon budget reallocation and external aid and not specifically for ASP response. Some coordination with development partners and ministries to access finance = 2 Is financing in place to ensure a timely response to • Some financing instruments earmarked for ASP response to 3 some shocks, but amount limited to smaller events/more regular disasters? scale-up. Where additional finance required this experiences delays = 3 • Some contingency financing and / or market-based instruments in place for some proportion of potential ASP costs. Larger and infrequent shocks not fully covered = 4 • Instruments are ear-marked to quickly cover the cost of ASP scale-up from all shocks. Minimal delays to response = 5 • No clear system/mechanism in place to scale up ASP assistance in place = 1 • Systems/mechanisms exist for final distribution of assistance in line with social protection system — no upstream timelines or protocols exist. Systems to disburse and reconcile expenditure= 2 • Systems/mechanisms exist for the release of resources, but no clear timescales established and challenges in implementation Are there systems/mechanisms which can be utilized remain. Systems to disburse and reconcile expenditure adequate 4 =3 for ASP interventions? • Systems/mechanisms and timescales for the release of resources exist but challenges in implementation remain. Good systems to disburse and reconcile expenditure down to beneficiary level = 4 • The processes and timescales exist for the release of all resources for ASP and good systems to disburse and reconcile expenditure down to beneficiary level = 5 BUILDING BLOCK: DATA AND INFORMATION EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS • No=1 • Yes, but not fully functional or pilot form=2 Is/are there a functional EWS for the shock(s) the • Yes, for some shock(s) and functional while some others exist 1 country is exposed to? (shocks that are identified in but very weak /not fully functional =3 Part One) • Yes, for most or all shocks and mostly functional=4 • Yes, for all regular/known/recurrent shocks and with high functionality/multihazard EWS=5 • Inadequate monitoring and warning capability of any hazard (for natural shock)/ or other shocks (health, food insecurity etc.) = 1 • Some but limited monitoring and/or warning capability of hazards /or other shocks =2 • Some adequate monitoring and/or warning capability for hazards Is the national EWS capable of warning (monitoring and /or shocks most relevant to the country, though some issues 2 with accuracy still, and limited ability to monitor other less alerting) of one or more shocks identified in Part One? relevant more infrequent shocks = 3 • Significant monitoring capability for hazards /or other shocks most relevant to the country but no other hazards/shocks =4 • High level of monitoring and warning capability across hazards and/or shocks =5 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 65 APPENDIX A • No detailed vulnerability or risk assessments by govt exist = 1 • Outdated or poor-quality assessment(s) of risk/vulnerability exist = 2 • Some assessment to determine impact of different shocks on different populations exists but relies heavily on external Has the government undertaken vulnerability and support /or is not wholly adequate = 3 3 risk assessment(s) to assess the impact of shock(s) • Government has the capacity to (and does) undertake risk/ identified in Part One based on EWS data? vulnerability assessment for some shocks regularly based on hazard or shock exposure and data and provide granular data on people in need = 4 • Government has the capacity to (and does) undertake a credible risk/vulnerability assessment regularly that is capable of providing granular data on estimated people in need in advance or very quickly in response to multiple shocks = 5 • Shock response does not rely on EWS data for response = 1 • There is an ad hoc linkage shock response and EWS, where EWS data is used only sometimes = 2 • Some attempts to identify and document EW indicators, which Is there an agreed trigger to initiate shock response can be used to plan disaster response, but actual timing and scale of response follow resources =3 4 or to scale up social protection systems in shock response (for the shocks identified in Part One) ? • EW indicators are well-defined and documented with preagreed trigger thresholds to initiate a shock response. However, this is only limited to pilot programs or little coverage =4 • Defined/automatic EW triggers that lead to relevant agencies initiating the shock response, which includes guidelines on amount and coverage for some shock(s) = 5 SOCIAL REGISTRIES • A program social registry • Several program registries/databases • A national registry • A voter ID database • Humanitarian partners databases What kind of registry or database is used to target 1 • Civil registry beneficiaries for a shock response ? • Social security database • Telecom companies or client lists • Pension and social security databases • Dedicated management information system • None of the above/ad hoc registration • Over 70%=1 • 50-70%=2 What is the difference in terms of urban coverage in • 30%-50%=3 2 the registry/databases vs. the likely affected urban population based on simulation ? • 15-30%=4 • More households in the registry/database, or 0-15% fewer in the database than urban affected population % = 5 • Over 70%=1 • 50-70%=2 What is the difference in terms of rural coverage in the • 30%-50%=3 3 registry vs. the likely affected rural population based on the simulation ? • 15-30%=4 • More households in the registry/database, or 0-15% fewer in the database than urban affected population % = 5 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 66 APPENDIX A • Over 70% (or information not available) = 1 • 50-70%=2 Share of records older than 3 years in the registry or 4 • 30%-50%=3 database used? It can also be an approximation • 15-30%=4 • 0-15%=5 • None=1 • Few disaster-prone areas covered=2 Based on approximation, are disaster prone areas 5 • Some of the disaster-prone areas covered = 3 covered by the registry or relevant databases? • Most of the disaster-prone areas covered =4 • All the disaster-prone areas covered =5 • No=1 • Yes, a protocol exists but has never been followed=2 • Yes, a protocol exists and has been mostly followed with some shortcomings (whether delays, or some deviation from the Is there a protocol for updating the registry or relevant protocol or short of the full needed update) OR a protocol does 6 not exist, but some updates have happened regardless = 3 database (full update not day to day updates) ? • Yes, a protocol exists and has been followed and helped update the database completely, but the updates are irregular and at least 5 years apart = 4 • Update is regular and/or automatic =5 • Data collected in the registry/database is not sufficient to target in a shock response =1 • Data collected in the registry/database is somewhat sufficient Does the data in the registry or in the databases used to target during a shock=2 allow targeting, identifying, locating, and contacting • Data collected in the registry/database is mostly sufficient to 7 the beneficiary and transferring the benefit (that is, target for a/some shock(s)=3 having the address/phone/account information of the • Data collected in the registry/database is mostly sufficient to beneficiary) during shock response ? target for all shocks=4 • Data collected in the registry/database is fully sufficient to target for all shocks=5 • No, humanitarian partners use their own proprietary beneficiary lists, with little coordination of lists =1 • Some use it but not consistently, relying on their own lists with some coordination but remains insufficient =2 Do humanitarian partners use the government’s • All have access but don’t use it consistently relying on their own lists partially with some coordination, but overlaps remain =3 8 registry or other relevant government databases for their response • They have access but use their own proprietary lists. However, mechanisms in place to avoid overlap in targeted beneficiaries that is, different programs are not covering the same beneficiaries= 4 • All have access and use it consistently /or humanitarian partners not involved in response =5 • No other databases available=1 • Databases available but not interoperable=2 Are there other adequate (up to date, relevant • Databases available and could be made interoperable but no data, geographic coverage) databases (telecom, data sharing preagreements = 3 9 humanitarians) available that can significantly expand • Databases available and have data sharing preagreements = 4 reach ? • Databases available, which are interoperable and allow seamless expansion, or the government does not need to rely on other databases as its own database/registry has full coverage = 5 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 67 APPENDIX A • No data privacy/security regulations exist = 1 • Data privacy regulations exist but are not implemented = 2 • Data privacy regulations exist with strict data sharing protocols with the private sector. However other government agencies Are there any data privacy regulations with specified can access and use this data = 3 10 course of action in case of privacy breach ? • Data privacy regulations exist with strict data sharing protocols where the beneficiary is made aware of all the entities that could access their data = 4 • Data privacy regulations exist where beneficiary data is not shared with anyone. Other entities can only access aggregated or anonymized data = 5 BUILDING BLOCK : PROGRAMS AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS PROGRAMS • None, or donor/NGO-run programs only = 1 • Government-run programs exist, but in limited geographic areas = 2 • Government-run programs exist nationally but are limited to What kind of noncontributory cash/in-kind transfer specific categories (for example, disability, old age pension) = 3 1 programs does the government operate ? • Government-run programs are operated nationwide but are fragmented or overlapping = 4 • A coordinate government-run program(s) is present nationally covering the life cycle/primate vulnerable categories without fragmentation or overlap= 5 • None, or donor/NGO-run programs only = 1 • Selected programs exist (some of them run by the government), but are limited in scope/coverage and/or to certain geographic areas = 2 • Programs exist nationally but are limited in scope and/or What kind of livelihoods/employment protection coverage (for example, skills training only) = 3 2 programs exist ? • Various programs (delivering, for example, skills plus cash, credit and/or counseling) are operated nationwide with reasonable coverage, but are fragmented or overlapping = 4 • An integrated government-run livelihoods program/suite of programs (or in complete coordination with NGOs) is operating nationally with appropriate coverage = 5 • Amount of benefit far from allowing households to maintain preshock consumption levels =1 • Amount of benefit covers a small part of the consumption impact and decision on amount is based on resources available rather than standard protocol =2 Does the amount of benefit provided during shocks • Amount of benefit covers significant portion of the consumption impact, though coverage still a priority (can sometimes cover 3 contributes to maintain household consumption and a lot sometimes a little) =3 welfare ? • Amount of benefit provided compensates significantly (though not fully) for consumption impact, with some parameters for transfer amount outlined in protocol and minimal acceptable value = 4 • Amount of benefit provided compensates for potential consumption impact with formal guidelines/standards in place= 5 • 0-15%=1 • 15%-30%=2 What is the coverage of social protection programs in 4 • 30%-50%=3 the country ? • 50 to 70%=4 • Over 70%=5 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 68 APPENDIX A DELIVERY SYSTEMS • No or target population is not accessible=1 • Yes, but instruments are used in an ad hoc manner and are not tailored to the target population (for example, using pamphlets or using pamphlets in one language and not others when target population is illiterate) = 2 Are there communication mechanisms in place that • Yes, with more effective strategies in some areas but is not implemented well in other areas = 3 1 can be leveraged in times of a shock to inform target beneficiaries about the program ? • Yes, a comprehensive strategy is implemented (or is available) in both urban and rural areas, which are served by the program, but don’t have capacity to expand to areas not currently covered = 4 • Yes, a comprehensive strategy that uses multiple sources (for example, a mix of cell phone, tv/radio, newspaper and other print media, and local community leaders) is available that can be scaled up as needed= 5 • There is no needs assessment tool=1 • There is a tool designed for needs assessments for cash as well as other assistance (such as food or shelter), but there are no mechanisms to link it to existing programs=2 • There is a tool designed for needs assessments and it informs the delivery of assistance through social protection programs Is the delivery of assistance informed by a needs via cash transfers=3 2 assessment ? • There is a tool designed for needs assessments and it informs the delivery of assistance through social protection programs assistance other than cash transfers (such as food or shelter) =4 • There is a tool designed for needs assessments and it informs the delivery of assistance through the social protection programs via cash transfers as well as other assistance (such as food or shelter) =5 • No enrolment mechanisms specified in case of horizontal expansion or existing beneficiaries have to register again for vertical expansion = 1 • In person near their place of residence at a specific time (no permanent structure available for registration) =2 How are beneficiaries enrolled in the program in times 3 • Self-enrollment in person (kiosk, one stop shop) or online/ of shock ? phone without provision for alternative access = 3 • Self-enrollment by phone or internet as well as in person = 4 • Automatic enrollment OR multiple mechanisms used that ensure everyone among target population * can be enrolled =5 • 0-20% / Not available=1 What percentage of the poorest two quintiles of • 20-40%=2 4 population has a government authorized/recognized ID • 40-60%=3 (national ID, birth certificate, voters ID, tax ID, etc.) • 60 to 80%=4 • Over 80%=5 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 69 APPENDIX A • No/yes, but not functional =1 • Yes, but only through community committees/ in person and is limited to beneficiaries only =2 • Yes, there are multiple ways to register complaints, which can Can beneficiaries or target population register also be used by nonbeneficiaries. However, complaint resolution process is not tracked =3 5 complaints? Is there a grievance redress mechanism in • Yes, there are multiple ways to register complaints with triggers place to resolve the complaints ? for response that tracks complaint resolution process = 4 • Yes, there are multiple ways to register complaints with triggers for response and tracking of complaint resolution process. After complaint resolution, follow up with beneficiaries to get feedback = 5 • No specific efforts are made to ensure inclusion of women=1 • Some efforts are made to improve access or outreach, but these are not effective or contextually appropriate =2 • Some efforts are made to improve access or outreach, including context-specific adjustments or measures to address upstream Does the shock response expansion have specific constraints (for example, provision of IDs or SIM cards to women to have better access) = 3 6 programs/design features to ensure inclusion of women ? • Shock response plan includes a social mobilization component on top of tweaks in design features that tries to influence behavior or change restrictive norms to improve women’s access to systems = 4 • The existing system already accounts for the major constraints faced by women and includes strategies to mitigate their constraints and improve access =5 • No specific efforts are made to ensure inclusion of other vulnerable categories = 1 • Some efforts are made to improve access or outreach, but these are not effective or contextually appropriate = 2 • Some efforts are made to improve access or outreach, including Does the shock response expansion have specific context specific adjustments or measures to address upstream programs/designs features to ensure the inclusion of constraints = 3 7 other vulnerable categories (people with disabilities, • Shock response plan includes a social mobilization component elderly, refugees etc.) on top of tweaks in design features that tries to influence behavior or change restrictive norms or constraints to the inclusion of other vulnerable groups = 4 • The existing system already accounts for the major constraints faced by other vulnerable groups and includes strategies to mitigate their constraints and improve access = 5 PAYMENT SYSTEMS • Payments/transfers are cash based or in kind undertaken in person by MFIs or other and no set up for digital transfers=1 • Payments/transfers cash based or in kind undertaken in person by MFIs or other but a small scale/pilot or discussion on digital transfers ongoing=2 Currently, how are benefits or cash transferred to the 1 • Some payments are digital or paid to bank accounts=3 beneficiaries? • Most payments are digital or paid to bank accounts but use of funds is restricted to cash withdrawals from designated places =4 • All payments are digital with ability to spend directly from the account, for example, by debit card at merchant POS machine=5 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 70 APPENDIX A • Payments would require significant time as system not in place or nor appropriate for response (that is, payments or assistance would arrive significantly after the shock occurs, likely some months) = 1 • Payments would experience some delay relative to shock as some systems in place but not most appropriate for some shock(s) identified in Part One (that is, payments or assistance would arrive after the shock occurs, days to weeks) =2 • Payments would experience moderate delays- some could be quick while others would lag (that is, payments or assistance 2 How quickly can the payment system scale ? relatively on time for some beneficiaries but delayed for others, no consistency in ability to respond on time) = 3 • Payments can be made with little delay for some shock(s) identified in Part One (that is, most payments practically on time relative to the type of shock, “delays” are small, few days at most= 4 • Payments can be made rapidly for all shocks identified in Part One (consider for different shocks different payment systems may be necessary, so ability to be able to adapt payment method as necessary-fit for purpose- is essential) = 5 • Expansion of payments/benefits cannot be done at scale of need and limited to already targeted areas/localities =1 • Expansion of payments/benefits can be done at limited scale of need (that is, slightly more than the regular caseload, but mostly only if in same general area, or not multiple areas) =2 What is the capacity of the payment system to handle a • Some ability to moderately expand payments/ benefits relative 3 to need (that is, beyond current regular case load with some horizontal expansion of the main program ? sizeable yet insufficient reach still) =3 • Significant ability to expand payments/benefits relative to need =4 • Strong ability to expand transfers/ benefits to cover most of the need or country if needed=5 STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 71 REFERENCES Africa Center for Strategic Studies. 2022. “Sahel and Somalia Drive Rise in Africa’s Militant Islamist Group Violence.” Africa Center for Strategic Studies, August 9, 2022. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/sahel-and-somalia-drive-uninterrupted-rise-in-african-militant- islamist-group-violence-over-past-decade/. Banks, Lena M., Calum Davey, Tom Shakespeare, and Hannah Kuper. 2021. “Disability-Inclusive Responses to COVID-19: Lessons Learnt from Research on Social Protection in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.” World Development 137: 105178. doi: 10.1016/j. worlddev.2020.105178 Barca, Valentina. 2020. “Options for Rapid Expansion of Social Assistance Caseloads for COVID-19 Responses.” SPACE (Social Protection Approaches to COVID-19: Expert Advice), DAI Global UK Ltd, United Kingdom. Barca, Valentina, and Madhumitha Hebbar. 2020. “On-Demand and Up-To-Date? Dynamic Inclusion and Data Updating for Social Assistance.” GIZ (German Agency for International Cooperation), Bonn, Germany. https://socialprotection.org/sites/default/files/ publications_files/GIZ_DataUpdatingForSocialAssistance_3.pdf. Barka, Habibi B., and Mthuli Ncube. 2012. “Political Fragility in Africa: Are Military Coups d’état a Never-Ending Phenomenon?” AfDB (African Development Bank) Chief Economist Complex. https://www.afdb.org/sites/default/files/documents/publications/economic_ brief_-_political_fragility_in_africa_are_military_coups_detat_a_never_ending_phenomenon.pdf. Beazley, Rodolfo, Marta Marzi, and Rachael Steller. 2021. “Drivers of Timely and Large-Scale Cash Responses to COVID-19: What Does the Data Say?” SPACE (Social Protection Approaches to COVID-19: Expert Advice), DAI Global UK Ltd, United Kingdom. https:// socialprotection.org/sites/default/files/publications_files/SPACE_Drivers%20of%20Timely%20and%20Large%20Scale%20Cash%20 Responses%20to%20COVID_19%20%281%29.pdf. Blanchard, Paul, Oscar Ishizawa, Thibaut Humbert, and Rafael Van Der Borght. 2023. “Struggling with the Rain: Weather Variability and Food Insecurity Forecasting in Mauritania.” Policy Research Working Paper 10457, World Bank, Washington, DC. doi: 10.1596/1813- 9450-10457. Bossuroy, Thomas, Markus Goldstein, Bassirou Karimou, Dean Karlan, Harounan Kazianga, William Parienté, Patrick Premand, Catherine C. Thomas, Christopher Udry, Julia Vaillant, and Kelsey A. Wright. 2022. “Tackling Psychosocial and Capital Constraints to Alleviate Poverty.” Nature 605: 291–297. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04647-8 Bossuroy, Thomas, Markus Goldstein, Dean Karlan, Harounan Kazianga, William Pariente, Patrick Premand, Catherine C. Thomas, Christopher Udry, Julia Vaillant, and Kelsey A. Wright. 2021. “Pathways out of Extreme Poverty: Tackling Psychosocial and Capital Constraints with a Multi-faceted Social Protection Program in Niger”. Policy Research Working Paper WPS 9562, Impact Evaluation Series. World Bank Group, Washington, DC. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/404231614713033789/ pathways-out-of-extreme-poverty-tackling-psychosocial-and-capital-constraints-with-a-multi-faceted-social-protection-program-in-niger. Bowen, Thomas, Carlo De Ninno, Colin Andrews, Sarah Coll-Black, Ugo Gentilini, Kelly Johnson, Yasuhiro Kawasoe, Adea Kryeziu, Barry Maher, and Asha Williams. 2020. “Adaptive Social Protection: Building Resilience to Shocks.” World Bank, Washington, DC. Brunelin, Stephanie, Mahamane Maliki Amadou, Felix Lung, and Snjezana Plevko. 2022. “Responding Faster to Droughts with Satellites and Adaptive Social Protection in Niger.” Development and a Changing Climate (blog), March 10, 2022, World Bank. https://blogs. worldbank.org/climatechange/responding-faster-droughts-satellites-and-adaptive-social-protection-niger%20%20/. Della Guardia, Anne, Milli Lake, and Pascale Schnitzer, Pascale. 2022. "Selective Inclusion in Cash Transfer Programs: Unintended Consequences for Social Cohesion," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C). ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States). 2011. "Étude sue la mise en place d’un dispositif régional de renforcement et de coordination des stocks nationaux de sécurité alimentaire dans l’espace UEMOA." ECOWAS. https://www.inter-reseaux.org/wp- content/uploads/Etude_UEMOA-STOCKS_Rapport_Final.pdf STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 72 Hoglund Giertz, Asa, Margareta G. Dicko, Tenin Fatimata, Cristina Stephan, Felix Lung, Ramiro Jose Iturrioz, Clemence Tatin-Jaleran, Mitik Ayalew, and Aicha Luce Sanou. 2022. “Regional Risks to Agriculture in West Africa: Agricultural Risk Impacts, Management Measures, and Financing Mechanisms Through a Regional Lens.” World Bank, Washington, DC. http://documents.worldbank.org/ curated/en/099110103302268898/P1729410f83deb00c0adc40fa4cea21d33b IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2022. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, New York. doi: 10.1017/9781009325844. Kreidler, Corinna, Sophie Battas, Karin Seyfert, and Mira Saidi. 2023. “Linking Humanitarian Cash Assistance and National Social Protection Systems: Synthesis Report.” OPM (Oxford Policy Management) and World Bank. https://www.humanitarianoutcomes.org/ sites/default/files/publications/linking_humanitarian_cash_and_social_protection_in_the_sahel_world_bank_final_report.pdf. Lay, Timothy. 2023. “ACLED Year in Review Global Disorder in 2022: Escalating Violence and the Worsening Civilian Burden.” ACLED (the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project), Grafton, WI. https://acleddata.com/acleddatanew/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/ ACLED_2022-Year-in-Review_Report_Jan2023.pdf. Leite, Phillippe, Tina George, Changquing Sun, Theresa Jones, and Kathy Lindert. 2017. “Social Registries for Social Assistance and Beyond: A Guidance Note and Assessment Tool.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/698441502095248081/pdf/117971-REVISED-PUBLIC-Discussion-paper-1704.pdf. Lung, Felix. 2022. “Disaster Risk Financing: What it is and What it isn’t for Adaptive Social Protection in the Sahel — Debunking Myths about DRF in the Sahel.” World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38317. O'Brien, Clare, Zoë Scott, Gabrielle Smith, Valentina Barca, Andrew Kardan, Rebecca Holmes, Carol Watson, and Jenny Congrave. 2018. “Shock-Responsive Social Protection Systems Research: Synthesis Report.” Oxford Policy Management, Oxford, UK. https://www. opml.co.uk/files/Publications/a0408-shock-responsive-social-protection-systems/srsp-synthesis-report.pdf?noredirect=1. Paul, Boban, Chipo Msowoya, Edward Archibald, Massimo Sichinga, Alejandra Campero Pedro, and Muhammad Malik. 2021. “Malawi COVID-19 Urban Cash Intervention Process Evaluation Report.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ handle/10986/36906. Pople, Ashley, Ruth Hill, Stefan Dercon, and Ben Brunckhorst. 2021. “Anticipatory Cash Transfers in Climate Disaster Response.” Working Paper 6, Centre for Disaster Protection, London. https://static1.squarespace.com/static/61542ee0a87a394f7bc17b3a/t/616ad24fdbfca6 2188f8e614/1634390614711/FINAL%2BAnticipatory_Cash_Transfers_in_Climate_Disaster_Response%2B%28for%2BWP%29%2BF3.pdf. Sammon, Elayn, Ludovico Carraro, Alexander Cote, Stacey Zevenbergen, and Rebecca Holmes. 2021. “How Targeting Mechanisms Can Identify People with Disabilities for Inclusion in Social Protection Programmes.” SPACE (Social Protection Approaches to COVID-19: Expert Advice), DAI Global UK Ltd, United Kingdom. https://socialprotection.org/discover/publications/space-how-targeting-mechanisms- can-identify-people-disabilities-inclusion SASPP (Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program). 2022. “SASSP Annual Report 2022.” SASPP. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099453411032210114/pdf/IDU04f9a043d0e73904ccf092f40315f5bb59d25.pdf Smith, Gabrielle. 2021. “Overcoming Barriers to Coordinating Across Social Protection and Humanitarian Assistance — Building on Promising Practices.” SPACE (Social Protection Approaches to COVID-19: Expert Advice), DAI Global UK Ltd, United Kingdom. https:// socialprotection.org/discover/publications/space-overcoming-barriers-coordinating-across-social-protection-and. Smith, Gabrielle, and Thomas Bowen. 2020. “Adaptive Social Protection: The Delivery Chain and Shock Response.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/799281603376140118/pdf/Adaptive-Social-Protection-The-Delivery- Chain-and-Shock-Response.pdf. UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization). 2022. “Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems: Target G”, UNDRR. https://www.undrr.org/publication/global-status-multi-hazard-early-warning-systems-target-g STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 73 UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees). 2021. “Climate Risk Profile: Sahel.” UNHCR. https://www.unhcr.org/61a49df44. pdf UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Fund). 2019. “Programme Guidance: Strengthening Shock Responsive Social Protection Systems.” UNICEF, New York. https://www.unicef.org/media/63846/file. UNICEF (United Nations Children’s Fund), and WFP (World Food Programme). 2015. “UNICEF/WFP Return on Investment for Emergency Preparedness Study: Final Report.” UNICEF and WFP. https://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/newsroom/ wfp272225.pdf?_ga=2.145802941.804692502.1696771161-1450827896.1696771161. Van der Borght, Rafael, Oscar Ishizawa, and Matthieu Lefebvre. 2023. “Financing Food Insecurity Risk — A Proactive Approach: The Mauritania National Fund for Food and Nutrition Crisis Response.” SASPP (Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program) Policy Note Series, 8, World Bank, Washington DC. Venton, Courtenay Cabot. 2018. “Economics of Resilience to Drought in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia: Executive Summary.” USAID Center for Resilience. https://agrilinks.org/sites/default/files/summary_economics_of_resilience_es_final_jan_4_2018_-_branded.pdf. World Bank. 2016. “Project Paper on a Proposed Restructuring of the Safety Nets Project (Jigisemejiri).” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/949681472263259821/pdf/PAD1770-REVISED-PUBLIC.pdf. World Bank. 2019. “Mauritania Social Safety Net System Project II.” Project Appraisal Document 19, Word Bank, Washington, DC. https:// documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/380011562674279503/concept-project-information- document-pid-mauritania-social-safety-net-system-project-ii-p171125. World Bank. 2020a. “Adaptive Social Protection.” (infographic), World Bank, Washington, DC. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/ infographic/2020/09/17/adaptive-social-protection. World Bank. 2020b. “The Human Capital Index 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19.” World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34432. World Bank. 2021a. “Prioritizing the Poorest and Most Vulnerable in West Africa: Togo’s Novissi Platform for Social Protection Uses Machine Learning, Geospatial Analytics, and Mobile Phone Metadata for the Pandemic Response.” Results Brief, April 13, 2021, World Bank. https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2021/04/13/prioritizing-the-poorest-and-most-vulnerable-in-west-africa-togo-s-novissi- platform-for-social-protection-uses-machine-l. World Bank. 2021b. “Stress Testing Social Protection: A Rapid Appraisal of the Adaptability of Social Protection Systems and Their Readiness to Scale Up.” World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank Group. 2022. “G5 Sahel Region Country Climate and Development Report.” CCDR Series, World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/197f07e0-d3ec-48bc-9d52-38d551d5d312/content. WFP (World Food Programme). 2023. “HungerMap: Western Africa Insights and Key Trends.” WFP. https://static.hungermapdata.org/ insight-reports/2023-02-10/rbd-summary.pdf STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 74 ENDNOTES During 2010–2019, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaged 4.87 percent annually in the Sahel region, higher than the 1 average in Sub-Saharan Africa (3.48 percent). Data in this note are from World Bank Data, World Bank, Washington, DC, (accessed June 30, 2023), https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG. 2 The estimated poverty headcount ratios using national poverty lines in 2019 were 37.5 percent in Burkina Faso, 40.1 percent in Chad, 42.5 percent in Mali, 28.2 percent in Mauritania, 40.8 percent in Niger, and 37.8 percent in Senegal. Data estimates in this note are from Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP), World Bank, Washington, DC, (accessed June 30, 2023), https://pip.worldbank.org/home. 3 In 2018, the multidimensional poverty measure was 60.4 percent in Burkina Faso and 79 percent in Chad. Data in this note are from Poverty and Inequality Platform (PIP), World Bank, Washington, DC, (accessed June 30, 2023), https://pip.worldbank.org/home. 4 These percentages are estimated to be approximately 30 in Chad, 32 in Mali and Niger, 38 in Burkina Faso and Mauritania, and 42 in Senegal (World Bank 2020b). 5 The six countries in this study have collectively experienced 45 successful and attempted coups d’état since 1960. For more information about coups d’état in Africa, see “By the Numbers: Coups in Africa” on the Voice of America website at https://projects. voanews.com/african-coups/. For more information about the numbers of internally displaced persons, refugees, and asylum seekers in the Sahel region, see the 6 UNHCR R4Sahel Coordination Platform for Forced Displacements in Sahel website at https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/sahelcrisis. 7 For more information about the 2022 flooding in West and Central Africa, see the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) website at https://www.unhcr.org/us/news/briefing-notes/millions-face-harm-flooding-across-west-and-central-africa-unhcr- warns. 8 For more information about GDP per capita growth in the Sahel region, see the World Bank Data website at https://data.worldbank. org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Data Mapper website at https://www.imf.org/external/ datamapper/datasets/WEO. For more information about food inflation in each Sahel country, see the World Bank Poverty and Equity Briefs website at https:// 9 www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/publication/poverty-and-equity-briefs. For more information about the current food insecurity situation in the Sahel region, see the World Food Programme (WFP) HungerMap 10 Data website at https://hungermap.wfp.org/. For more information about food insecurity estimates in the Sahel region, see the Cadre Harmonisé website at https://www. 11 cadreharmonise.org/en_GB. 12 Household vulnerability can be understood as a function of hazard, exposure, and ability to cope with its impacts. 13 An Early Warning System is “an integrated system of hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, communication, and preparedness activity systems and processes that enable individuals, communities, governments, businesses, and others to take timely action to reduce disaster risks in advance of hazardous events”. For more information on the definition of EWS, see the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) website at https://www.undrr.org/terminology/early-warning-system. 14 Support by the World Bank to strengthen ASP in the Sahel has been embedded in continuous country engagements, benefiting from US$847 million from the International Development Association (IDA) since 2013 and US$172.95 million from SASPP since 2014. 15 The most recent major updating effort, in 2019–20, benefitted from collaborative efforts by WFP, UNICEF and the World Bank. The trigger is linked to the water requirement satisfaction index, which uses precipitation and evapotranspiration data to generate 16 an index that is closely correlated with the yield of millet. STRESS TESTING ADAPTIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS IN THE SAHEL 75 RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given and all further permissions that may be required for such use (as noted herein) are acquired. The World Bank Group does not warrant that the content contained in this work will not infringe on the rights of third parties, and accepts no responsibility or liability in this regard. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.