OPERATIONAL BRIEF Climate Change and the Blue Economy in Africa BLUE ECONOMY FOR RESILIENT AFRICA PROGRAM © 2022 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 | Internet: www.worldbank.org Acknowledgments This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank Group with external contributions. “The World Bank Group” refers to the legally separate organizations of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), This brief was written by Federico Scodelaro (Consultant). The In addition, the team received incisive and helpful advice, the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral series of briefs was prepared by a team led by Lia Carol comments and input from World Bank colleagues, including Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). 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BLUE ECONOMY FOR RESILIENT AFRICA PROGRAM | 1 About the Blue Economy for Key Resilient Africa Program Messages The Blue Economy generated nearly US$300 billion for the African continent in 2018, creating 49 million jobs in the process. These and other crucial benefits—most notably food security, livelihoods, biodiversity, and resilience to the effects of climate change—are entirely dependent on the health and productivity of coastal and marine areas. A robust Blue Economy could protect Africa from the worst effects of climate By safeguarding productive coastal landscapes, countries will be in a better position to change. At the same time, the effects of climate change are already preventing take full advantage of future Blue Economy opportunities, which range from sustainable the continent from achieving the full benefits of a vibrant Blue Economy. blue energy to aquaculture to blue carbon. The World Bank’s Blue Economy for Resilient Africa Program, announced at COP27, will Changing temperatures, rainfall patterns, and climate extremes are already provide multisectoral analytical, financial, and policy support to Africa’s coastal countries impacting biodiversity with far-ranging consequences on species range, plant, and island states to help them leverage the opportunities—and manage the risks—inherent and animal reproductive and/or migration cycles. in scaling up their Blue Economies. Temperature increases are already driving fish from tropical areas toward the poles. The fisheries most at risk are those along the Gulf of Guinea, About this series of briefs from Gabon to Guinea-Bissau, and along Africa’s east coast, from Eritrea to Mozambique. The Blue Solutions for Africa series of operational briefs captures how a thriving Blue Economy can help African In 2019, the African continent experienced above-average sea-level rise of countries better manage the development challenges five millimeters. Sea levels will almost certainly climb by half a meter by the they face while supporting economic growth, sustainable end of the century, with regional variations on the continent. livelihoods, and the health of these precious ecosystems. The population inhabiting low-level, coastal areas in Africa is rising at an THE BRIEFS COVER THE FOLLOWING THEMATIC AREAS annual rate of 3.3 percent per year, more than double the global average. This is partly driven by repetitive drought in Mediterranean areas. By 2050, • Climate change • Data management and between 72 million and 94 million people are expected to inhabit several of knowledge creation West Africa’s low-lying urban centers. • Coastal and marine biodiversity and habitats • Innovative financing instruments With World Bank Group support, various African countries are taking ambitious • Sustainable fisheries • Developing and incentivizing climate action, with a strong focus on increasing adaptation and resilience, • Marine pollution institutions leveraging private sector finance, and supporting increased systemic climate • Jobs and livelihoods © Shutterstock action at the country level. • New frontiers of innovation • Participatory marine spatial planning © Freepik BLUE ECONOMY FOR RESILIENT AFRICA PROGRAM | 3 Introduction What Climate Climate change is impacting the planet overall, and the Blue Economy is not exempt from these effects. On the Modelling Tells Us contrary: the ocean is a major regulator of global and regional weather, and ocean acidification is a fundamental Temperature influencer of coastal and marine ecosystems. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate by 2100, except in Central Africa, where the estimate is 2.5°C. Change’s (IPCC’s) Sixth Assessment Report, which includes Under high-emissions scenarios, temperatures are projected Climate change is already affecting the Blue Economy in various ways. Sea-level rise is a major new modelling exercise, mean annual temperatures to be up to 8°C warmer in parts of Algeria and Saudi Arabia. causing havoc on shorelines due to geomorphological processes. Changes in precipitation have shown an increase of 0.2°C to 0.5°C per decade. Under Modelling suggests that the number of days hotter than is causing floods and droughts in unpredictable patterns. Rising sea temperatures is starting each of the major emissions scenarios assessed, a global 35°C will increase by 20, to 160 days a year on average, to change patterns of ecosystem productivity, which will, in turn, reduce the availability of fish temperature increase of 1.5°C over pre-industrial levels with variations depending on the scenario and region. For for human consumption. If climate change continues unchecked, extreme weather such as is likely to be exceeded in the next decade or so, and by life-threatening temperatures above 40°C, projections indicate mid-century all but the lowest emissions scenarios suggest an increase of 10 days, to 140 days a year depending on storm surges could conceivably combine with normal lunar tides to overwhelm the ability of temperature increases of 2°C or more. High-emissions scenario and region. coastal countries to safeguard their residents and infrastructure. scenarios suggest it is very likely that warming will exceed 3°C Preparing for these outcomes by developing Africa’s Blue Economy could help reduce the potential impacts of climate change while improving the resilience and adaptation of the Precipitation continent’s coastal communities. Rainfall projections for Africa are highly uncertain, but many to more flooding events. Model results vary by scenario and parts of the region are expected to experience extreme region, but they suggest that present 1-in-100-years floods precipitation changes, with droughts occurring alongside could become as frequent as 1-in-40-years floods under low- extreme rainfall days. This has already been observed over warming scenarios, and 1-in-20-years floods under higher much of Sub-Saharan Africa. The trend is projected to continue warming scenarios. with regional variations. At the same time, droughts are expected to increase in all Projections suggest an increase in extreme rainfall days over regions of Africa except the northern parts of East Africa and West Africa and the Sahel, and more intense and frequent the Horn of Africa. In line with this, observation and modelling occurrences of extreme rainfall over the Guinea highlands suggest increasing aridity in North Africa, West, and East and Cameroon mountains. In eastern Africa, precipitation Southern Africa, and in Madagascar. shows a high degree of temporal and spatial variability. Over the past three decades, rainfall has decreased over eastern Climate change is also increasing the frequency and intensity Africa. Monsoonal precipitation has also declined throughout of El Niño Southern Oscillation and modifying the behavior of much of the Great Horn of Africa over the past 60 years. The the West African monsoon, which is arriving later in the year. Mediterranean coasts of Morocco, Algeria, and Egypt will receive about 10 percent to 20 percent less rain in the 2°C Failure to curb global greenhouse gas emissions would put the increase scenario, reaching up to 50 percent less rain in the world on a trajectory towards planetary warming of 3°C, which 4°C scenario. would cause catastrophic disruptions of the whole African food system. The frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events are projected to increase almost everywhere in Africa, leading 4 I CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE BLUE ECONOMY IN AFRICA © Freepik BLUE ECONOMY FOR RESILIENT AFRICA PROGRAM | 5 © Freepik The Biophysical Effects of Impact of sea level rise and extreme weather on the coast In 2019, the African continent experienced an above- Sea levels will almost certainly climb by half a meter by the Climate Change average sea-level rise, reaching five millimeters in several end of the century, potentially increasing by 1 meter (m) unless oceanic areas surrounding it. This level was exceeded greenhouse emissions are quickly curbed. Tunis, for example, around the south-western Indian Ocean from Madagascar could experience a 0.38m to 0.96m sea-level rise by 2100. towards Mauritius. Meanwhile, cyclones are expected to become more powerful. Rainfall, drought, and their effects on landscapes and vegetation Coastal erosion In Africa, ecosystem services provide subsistence to millions more than 50 percent of the population for some bird and Climate change exacerbates existing coastal erosion caused being particularly exposed. But the challenge is not only urban: of people in Africa—particularly in rural areas—and support mammal species—and up to a 30 percent decline in the by a combination of factors including the poor management major national parks in Mauritania, like Diawling and Banc rural and national economies. According to World Bank productivity of Africa’s lakes. of coastal sediment flow around infrastructure such as ports; d’Arguin, will be also significantly affected. Another study by estimates, Africa’s natural capital is valued at US$9,225 per the retention of sediment in upstream dams; the mining of the World Bank estimated that the economic costs of coastal capita—more than US$8 trillion in total. However, Africa’s Climate change effects are expected to drive large ecological riverine and beach sand; and the loss of coastal habitat that erosion in northwest Africa range from 0.2 percent of gross ecosystems are increasingly at risk from climate change and shifts, with impacts on the distribution of disease, vectors, and would otherwise physically slow down the retreat of the coast. domestic product (GDP) in Algeria, to almost 3 percent of other serious challenges. water availability, in addition to livelihoods. Expansion in the GDP in Tunisia. range of various pathogens, diseases, and pests will increase As sea level rises and natural defenses crumble, the coast Changing temperatures, rainfall patterns, and climate the vulnerability of crops, reduce agricultural production, and is at risk of permanent inundation. Major coastal cities like extremes are already impacting biodiversity with far- jeopardize human health. Prevention of future epidemics Abidjan, Cotonou, Lomé, and Nouakchott are likely to be ranging consequences on species range, plant, and animal and pandemics is closely linked to preventing degradation of highly impacted by erosion, with urban areas in Mauritania reproductive and/or migration cycles. By 2100, climate change habitats and conserving wildlife. could result in significant losses of African plant species— Impact of rainfall on watersheds Impact of sea temperature change on fisheries The combined effects of temperature and precipitation Extreme rainfall events wash soils away—worsening the Marine heat waves are expected to continue to increase in Modelling shows that the maximum catch potential could changes are expected to impact surface water levels, with erosion of already degraded land—and push rivers and frequency and intensity, especially around the Horn of Africa decrease by 30 percent or more as early as 2050 in many Africa’s river flows expected to decline between 20 and streams beyond their banks. They drag sediments and and the Mediterranean Sea. In the past three decades, tropical West African countries, including the Congo Republic, 40 percent by 2050. For instance, stream flows for the contaminants that can affect water sources for human supply. the Mediterranean summer sea surface temperature has Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Liberia, and the Okavango catchment in Botswana are expected to decrease by Moderate to severe degradation has already been identified increased 1.15°C, rising on average 0.4°C per decade. islands of São Tomé and Príncipe. By contrast, the catch 20 percent. in several life-supporting river basins, including the Niger potential at higher latitudes is projected to decrease only (50 percent degraded), Senegal Climate change is already causing variations in fish migration moderately. In some instances—most notably in the waters Changes in rainfall and evaporation impact the degree to (51 percent), Volta (67 percent), patterns. In most instances, fish are moving from tropical of Senegal, The Gambia, and Cabo Verde—the catch potential which surface water infiltrates the ground and therefore the Limpopo (66 percent), and areas toward the poles. Fish stocks in some areas are also is even expected to increase. recharge rates for groundwater, threatening water availability Lake Chad (26 percent) declining in response to increased temperatures, acidification, in water-scarce regions (northern, eastern, and central Africa). river basins. and deoxygenation. Acidification is also a matter of concern. Although its impacts are not as well understood and are more difficult to measure, Projections show that fisheries along a substantial length of it is likely that they will be more severe and widespread, Africa’s coastline are at high ecological risk from climate particularly on shell-forming species, invertebrates, and coral- change. The fisheries most at risk are those along the associated species and throughout any carbon-dependent Gulf of Guinea, from Gabon to Guinea-Bissau, and ecological processes. along Africa’s east coast, from Eritrea to Mozambique. 6 I CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE BLUE ECONOMY IN AFRICA © Freepik BLUE ECONOMY FOR RESILIENT AFRICA PROGRAM | 7 Migration of people The year 2020 marked the highest number of internal There is robust evidence that climate change effects will displacements recorded, the majority of which were in north impact the size and direction of migration flows, but these and Sub-Saharan Africa. New and repeated displacements are also highly influenced by other factors, such as social How Climate Change were also recorded when conflict overlapped with extreme and economic conditions. Armed conflicts and violence weather events, triggering an estimated 4.3 million new increase vulnerabilities, including food insecurity and displacements in Sub-Saharan Africa alone. forced displacement. will Affect People Where people can live If global average temperatures increase by 1.5°C, the number The risk of flooding is more pronounced in southwest Africa of people exposed to river flooding in Africa is predicted to rise and in West African countries with large rivers (for example, to 23.4 million by 2050, with a 57 percent increase in fatalities. Benin, Cameroon, and Nigeria). The topography of some These increases are driven by climate change coupled with cities, combined with deforestation and encroachment of population growth and high levels of migration to urban areas, informal settlements into floodplains, leads to situations of resulting in the expansion of the informal settlements that multiple risk that are aggravated by climate change. typically spring up without planning or basic services that Food and water security could help manage flooding events. In sub-Saharan Africa, an The population of Africa inhabiting low-level, coastal areas estimated 60 percent of the population lives in such informal is rising at an annual rate of 3.3 percent per year, more than settlements, which are highly vulnerable to natural disasters. double the global average. This is partly driven by repetitive By 2050, Africa will be facing the dual challenge of a high population drought in Mediterranean areas, which force rural communities and diminished food security due to climate change. By then, the Floods disproportionately affect the poor. Many informal to settle on the coast. By 2050, between 72 million and 94 continent’s population is expected to reach nearly 1.3 billion. settlements are located on floodplains or hillsides, where they million people are expected to inhabit several of West Africa’s The rapidly growing population is already placing significant are especially vulnerable to floodwaters or landslides. The low-lying urban centers. Given that sea-level rise is already pressure on the region’s food systems. consequences of this positioning can be fatal, as Sierra Leone being observed—in 2019, the African continent experienced discovered in 2017 when three days of intense rainfall triggered above-average sea-level rise, reaching five millimeters Climate impacts will affect agricultural yields and the a massive landslide in the Babadorie river valley, resulting in the compared with the previous year in several oceanic areas geographic range and viability of crops, disrupting already death and disappearance of more than 1,000 people. surrounding it, and even exceeding this level around vulnerable food systems and affecting rural livelihoods. Already, adverse Madagascar towards Mauritius—the African population is at climatic conditions following the 2015–16 El Niño led to food insecurity and high risk from rising oceans. nutrition crises in several countries across Eastern and Southern Africa. Unusual weather and climate conditions in East Africa have also resulted in the most destructive desert locust outbreak in the Horn of Africa in 25 years, and the most serious in 70 years for Kenya, posing a serious threat to the region’s livelihoods and food security. In Somalia and Kenya, the number of people affected by food insecurity increased between 2018 Other impacts and 2019, from 1.6 million to 2.1 million in Somalia and from 0.7 million to 3.1 million in Kenya. The effects of climate change may trigger or worsen conflicts Heatwaves also pose a threat to people. In the past five Water supply is increasingly at risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. Droughts by increasing competition over land and water resources, decades, countries such as Botswana, Chad, Sudan, and and prolonged dry periods increase soil erosion and exacerbate land or by causing disruptions in production and markets. Some Uganda have experienced increases in average temperature degradation, further undermining food security. Ongoing droughts in countries are more vulnerable to climate-related conflict than ranging from 1°C to more than 3°C. The increase is starkest in southern and eastern Africa, as well as water scarcity in North Africa, others, especially if they experience ethnic fragmentation, high eastern Africa. Low access to air conditioning and vulnerable are threatening the lives of millions. Water availability has declined from dependence on rainfed agriculture, low human development power grids add to this vulnerability in many African countries. 5,790 cubic meters per person in 2002 to 4,019 cubic meters per person levels, and political and economic marginalization. In the in 2014. Future water availability under a changing climate is projected to Lake Chad Basin, for example, the seasonal migration of decrease in most parts of Africa. Less than 4 percent of Africa’s arable land pastoralists is already leading to a rise in tensions with settled is irrigated, making the continent extremely vulnerable to rainfall-related farmers as resources (water for irrigation) become scarcer. shocks. These impacts will disproportionately affect the rural poor, who are a large share of the region’s overall population. 8 I CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE BLUE ECONOMY IN AFRICA © Freepik BLUE ECONOMY FOR RESILIENT AFRICA PROGRAM | 9 The World Bank’s Approach to Climate Next Generation Africa Climate Business Plan Change in Africa The Next Generation Africa Climate Business Plan (Figure 1) is grounded in the World Bank Group’s commitment © Freepik to mainstream climate action into the development agenda. The previous climate plan portfolio allowed for the development of a wide range of tools, instruments, and approaches to drive climate resilience and mitigation, rendering them ready for scaling and replication. Roadmap for Middle East and North Africa The new portfolio will draw on past successes, mobilizing proven tools and instruments to replicate and scale up low- carbon and resilience initiatives. For example, the Solar Lighting project, which started with Lighting Africa, has now World Bank Group commitments are driving support for countries to take ambitious climate evolved to form Lighting Global. THE STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS ARE AS FOLLOWS: action, with a strong focus on increasing adaptation and resilience, leveraging private sector finance, and supporting increased systemic climate action at the country level. The Climate Plan identifies five strategic directions for • Food security and a resilient rural economy Sub-Saharan Africa to achieve climate-smart growth and • Ecosystem stability and water security The World Bank Group’s Middle East and North Africa Climate Roadmap (2021–2025) aims shared prosperity. These strategic directions are highly to drive climate action and green recovery in the region. The roadmap outlines four key • Low carbon and resilient energy interconnected, with gender, community engagement, fragility, transformation areas to build low-carbon, resilient societies: • Resilient cities and green mobility and social inclusion as components of transformational climate action. • Climate shocks and risk governance. • Food systems, water security, and resilient natural capital • Energy transition and low-carbon mobility • Climate-smart cities and resilient coastal economies • Sustainable finance for climate action​ . I • Enhanced Country Engagement (SCDs, CPFs) Climate Action • Leveraging the portfolio (SILs, PforRs, DPFs) using World Bank • Focus on NDCs THE ROADMAP BUILDS ON THE WORLD BANK GROUP’S CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION PLAN (2021–2025) AND COMMITMENT TO Instruments • Flagship analytics and showcase projects BOOST CLIMATE ACTION BY: Increasing World Bank Group investments: Aligning financial flows with the Paris II US$10 billion of World Bank and International Finance Corporation funding will be used for Agreement by the 2023 financial year: Investments—particularly into infrastructure Financing • Mobilize IBRD, IDA19 (IDA20) financing climate-smart projects and policy reforms, and physical assets—will be aligned with Climate • Maximizing Finance for Development leveraging an additional US$2 billion in private country agreements and the Paris Agreement sector financing. to ensure there are no stranded assets. Action • Leverage climate and other financing Balancing adaptation and mitigation: Fifty The roadmap for the Middle East and North Africa percent of climate finance will be invested in provides a framework for ambitious climate action in initiatives that help build resilience, guided by regional and country-specific demand. the region. It unites climate action and development, strengthens institutions, overcomes barriers to private III Tracking and Integrating climate risk management : sector engagement, fosters regional integration, and builds resilient and more inclusive societies. Monitoring • Delivery of Corporate and IDA commitments Strategies and interventions will be informed Results for • Drive systematic and enhanced climate co-benefits delivery by the World Bank’s country climate and development reports, a core diagnostic tool Climate Action that helps identify country-level risks and opportunities linked to low-carbon growth. Figure 1: Key elements of the Next Generation Africa Climate Business Plan (2021–2026). Source: World Bank, 2020. 10 I CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE BLUE ECONOMY IN AFRICA BLUE ECONOMY FOR RESILIENT AFRICA PROGRAM | 11 Climate financing with IDA20 The International Development Association’s 20th (Co-benefits refers to World Bank financing that supports replenishment cycle (IDA20) of US$93 billion aims to support a climate action while also furthering development objectives.) green, resilient, and inclusive recovery from COVID-19 for the Alignment with the Paris Agreement and the rollout of country poorest countries between 2022 and 2025, with the ultimate climate and development reports, which are a flagship new goal of restoring their trajectory towards achieving the 2030 diagnostic tool to help integrate climate and development development goals. in country development strategies, are two significant innovations in IDA20. IDA20 will increase climate-related financing, with both intensified emphasis on climate adaptation and a higher target for climate co-benefits, which will increase to 35 percent on average over the 2023 to 2025 fiscal period. Data, knowledge, and solutions Open sources of information about the impacts of climate Various adaptation initiatives within Africa drawn on data and change and accessible tools that support technical analysis knowledge that was developed with World Bank assistance. are valuable for helping countries decide how to respond to For instance, in Malawi, the World Bank supported the scaling climate change. To ensure that all countries have access to up of modernized climate information and early warning relevant data, the World Bank developed the Climate Change systems, while also building capacity within the country’s Knowledge Portal, which carries global data on historical and Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services. projected climate vulnerabilities and impacts. Another World Bank initiative is the Wealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystem Services partnership, which promotes sustainable development by ensuring that natural resources are included in development planning and national economic accounting. Blue Economy and climate The Blue Economy considers economic development extreme poverty and increasing the income and welfare of the and climate action through ocean health as compatible poor in a sustainable way. The World Bank’s overall oceans propositions. It focuses on capturing potential synergies and portfolio was worth more than US$9 billion in active projects managing the trade-offs across industries to better address as of June 2022. the growing threats confronting oceans, particularly those posed by climate change, while simultaneously maximizing The World Bank and the European Commission recently the socioeconomic benefits generated by marine activities launched the Blue Economy Development Framework. The and ensuring the continuous delivery of goods and services framework provides a set of analytical tools to help countries for present and future generations. define a roadmap to a diversified and sustainable maritime economy, while building resilience to climate change. The World Bank’s Blue Economy Program, PROBLUE, supports the development of integrated, sustainable, and On the regional scale, in February 2019, Morocco hosted healthy marine and coastal resources. With the Blue Economy the launch of the regional Blue Belt Initiative, a collaborative Action Plan as its foundation, PROBLUE contributes to the platform for state and non-state actors to design, finance, and implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 14 and implement new sustainable economic activities based on the is fully aligned with the World Bank’s twin goals of ending circular economy and Blue Economy models. 12 I CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE BLUE ECONOMY IN AFRICA © Freepik