Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan September 2023 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan September 2023 © 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information or liability concerning the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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Washington, DC: World Bank.” All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: Nurek hydropower dam aerial photo. Photo credit: Lukas Bischoff Photograph, Shutterstock.com CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii 3.2.3 Orchards, Woodlots, and Sustainable ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . viii Grazing Localities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 ABSTRACT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix 3.3 Identification of Interventions to Improve EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x Ecosystem Services: Orchards and Woodlot Establishment and Sustainable Grazing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 1. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 3.4 Identification of Off-site Regulating 1.1 Environmental and Socioeconomic Context. . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Ecosystem Service Benefits. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 1.2 The Problem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3.5 Approaches to Value Hydrological 1.3 The Case for Landscape Restoration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Ecosystem Services . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 1.3.1 Sediment Management and Hydropower 3.6 Approaches to Valuing Sediment Reduction. . . . . . 40 Generation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3.7 Approaches to Value the Impact of Landscape 1.3.2 Hydrological Services. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Restoration on the Carbon Balance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 1.3.3 Agriculture Productivity and Rural 3.8 Economic Valuation of Alternative Interventions Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 in Vakhsh Valley - Integrated Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 1.3.4 Climate Change Adaptation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 3.9 Economic Value to Land Users and Local 1.3.5 Other Co-Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Communities - The Case for Investing in 1.4 Purpose of This Study. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Landscape Restoration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 3.10 CBA of Proposed Landscape Restoration 2. METHODOLOGY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Interventions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 2.1 Identification of Baseline Information. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . . . . . 67 2.2 Integrated Hydraulic and Sediment Model . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 4.1 Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 2.3 Identification of Landscape Restoration Interventions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 4.2 Policy and Technical Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 2.4 CBA and Ecosystem Services Valuation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 4.2.1 Policy Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 4.2.2 Technical Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 3. ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 4.2.3 Future Research Needs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 3.1 Baseline Conditions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 3.1.1 Catchment Characterization REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Topography. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 3.1.2 The Impacts of Climate Change. . . . . . . . . . . 23 ANNEXES 3.1.3 Geochemical Tracing. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 ANNEX 1. Additional Information on Sediment 3.1.4 Sediment Budget. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Sourcing and Erosion Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 3.2 Identification of Landscape Restoration A1.1 Intervention Impacts on Sheet and Rill Interventions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Erosion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 3.2.1 Context Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 A1.2 Intervention Impacts on Landslide Risk. . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 3.2.2 Existing Initiatives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 A1.3 Intervention Impacts on Gully Erosion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 iv Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS ANNEX 2. Additional Information on Figure 11: Location of Possible Landscape Methodology for Economic Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Restoration Interventions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 A2.1 Parameterization of Scenario Interventions. . . . . . 93 Figure 12: SCC (US$/tCO2-eq), Shadow Price of A2.2 Assumptions Used to Model Erosion Carbon by Year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Types in the Integrated Erosion and Sediment Figure 13: Regulating Ecosystem Service Benefits Transport Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 from Reduced Erosion, Carbon Sequestration, A2.3 Criteria for Mapping Landscape Restoration and Enhanced Water Availability, per ha Land Location. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 Restored. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 A2.4 Rangeland Biomass Productivity for Figure 14: Combined Sediment Transport and Different Degradation Levels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Reduction from the Interventions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 A2.5 Data Inputs for the Cash Flow Analysis of the Figure 15: Economic Benefits from Reduced Restoration Interventions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Erosion, Carbon Sequestration, and Enhanced A2.6 Full Economic Cost of Water. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 Water Availability, per Year per ha under Mosaic Restoration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 A2.7 Additional Details on Cost Components of Dredging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 Figure 16: Estimated Flow of Average per Hectare Revenues and Costs to Land Users under A2.8 Additional Details of Sediment Reduction Mosaic Restoration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Valuation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105 Figure 17: Net benefits (in US$/ha/year) from ANNEX 3. Stakeholder Consultations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Mosaic Landscape Restoration to the Tajikistan Economy for Different Discount Rates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 LIST OF FIGURES Figure A1.1: Sheet and Rill Erosion for the Baseline and Interventions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Figure 1: Workflow to Evaluate Landscape Restoration Interventions and to Quantify and Figure A1.2: Landslide Risk for the Baseline and Value Their Impacts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Interventions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 Figure 2: Implemented Model Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure A1.3: Gully Erosion for the Baseline and Interventions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Figure 3: Schematic Representation of the Hydrologic Cycle in the SWAT Model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Figure A2.1: Flow of per Hectare (Non-Discounted) Revenue Streams from Timber, Fuelwood, Fruits, Figure 4: The Vakhsh Catchment Topography and and Nuts Harvests from Woodlots and Current HPPs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Orchards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Figure 5: Streambank Erosion along a Vakhsh River Tributary Transporting High Sediment Load, Following a Low-Intensity Storm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 LIST OF TABLES Figure 6: Active Rockfall Contributing Substantial Table 1: Ecosystem Benefits, Main Beneficiaries, Amounts of Coarse Sediment to a Vakhsh River and Valuation Approaches Parameters Used Tributary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 for the CBA. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 7: Agricultural Influences on Sediment Table 2: Annual Contribution of Sediment for in the Catchment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 the Different Erosion Types Upstream of Rogun (million tons per year) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Figure 8: Map of the Study Area Showing Sampling Locations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Table 3: Total Areas for Each Scenario, in ha. . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Figure 9: Sediment Balance (2012–2021) Upstream of Table 4: Economic Cost of Water in Tajikistan. . . . . . . . . . . 39 Rogun from Different Erosion Types . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Table 5: Full-Cost Assessment of the Value of Figure 10: Spatially Distributed Average Annual Water - Assumptions and Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Sediment Transport in Vakhsh River and Table 6: Changes in the Carbon Balance over a Tributaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 30-Year Time Horizon. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan v Table 7: Sediment Budget at Rogun Dam, Table 22: Full CBA Result Display at 20% Interest in Million Tons per Year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Table 8: Total Sediment Reduction Upstream of Table A1.1: Erosion Sources and Sediment Rogun and Between Nurek and Rogun, Including Reduction Potential between Rogun and Nurek. . . . . . 92 the Size of the Intervention Areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Table A2.1: Parameterization of Scenario Table 9: Present Value Benefits from Reduced Interventions in the Models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 Erosion, Whole Watershed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Table A2.2: Main Variables Used to Parameterize Table 10: Storage Loss of Nurek Reservoir the Landscape and SWAT Modeling and Define over Time. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 the Location of the Landscape Restoration Table 11: Present Value Benefit of Avoided Erosion Interventions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 to Nurek HPP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Table A2.3: Hectares for Each Landscape Table 12: Changes in Hydrological Flows as a Restoration Scenario. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Result of Landscape Restoration Interventions, Table A2.4: Biomass Productivity in BAU and in m3/ha/year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Rotational Grazing Scenarios, Assumed Grazing Table 13: Changes in Hydrological Flows as a Period, and Regeneration Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 Result of Landscape restoration Interventions, Table A2.5: Rotational Grazing ICs, from in m /ha/year. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 3 Literature and Field Visits in Tojikobod. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Table 14: Present Value Benefit from Changes in Table A2.6: Assumptions on Yields, Prices, and Hydrological Flows. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Tree Densities for Orchards Used in the CBA Table 15: Present Value Benefit from Enhanced Analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 Carbon Sequestration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Table A2.7: Investment and Management Costs of Table 16: Financial CBA Results of Woodlot and Orchards. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Orchard Establishment . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Table A2.8: Timber and NTFP Yields from Table 17: Financial CBA Results of Rotational Woodlots. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 Grazing Establishment - Probable Lower- and Table A2.9: Implementation, Management, Upper-Range Costs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Harvesting, and Opportunity Cost of Woodlot Table 18: Summary of Present Value Benefits - Establishment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 Harvestable Provisioning Ecosystem Services - Table A2.10: Questions on Woodlots, Asked during 30 Years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Field Visits to Tojikobod in February 2022 to the Table 19: NPV and BCR from Restoration Head of the Agricultural Department and the Head Interventions and Individual Ecosystem Service of the Forest Department. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 Benefits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Table A2.11: Economic Cost of Water in Tajikistan. . . . . . 102 Table 20: NPV and BCR of Large-Scale Table A2.12: Assessment of the Value of Water - Restoration with the Vakhsh Catchment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Assumptions and Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 Table 21: Full CBA Result Display at 6% Interest Table A3.1: List of Stakeholders Consulted During Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Field Visit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 vi Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This report for the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan, Blue Economy for the Europe and Central Asia was developed by a World Bank core team led Region), Andrea Liverani (Lead Specialist), by Paola Agostini (Lead Natural Resources Sascha Djumena (Country Program Coordinator Management Specialist), Sergio Vallesi for the Europe and Central Asia Region), and (Environmental and Water Resource Engineer), Ozan Sevimli (Country Manager for Tajikistan) for and Juan Jose Miranda Montero (Senior their guidance and support. Environmental Economist), in collaboration The team is grateful to the World Bank Water with HYDROC GmbH, Altus Impact, University and Energy & Extractives Global Practices for of Central Asia, and Griffith University.1 Special providing information. The team also extends its thanks go to the following peer reviewers gratitude to the stakeholders from governmental for their valuable contributions to the report: institutions who supported this study with Maged Mahmoud Hamed (Lead Environmental their knowledge and insights, particularly the Specialist), Arame Tall (Senior Environmental Specialist), and Luis Diego Herrera Garcia Committee for Environmental Protection under (Environmental Economist). In addition, the team the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan would like to thank Drita Dade (Senior Natural and other stakeholders from nongovernmental Resources Management), Elena Strukova and private organizations. This publication was Golub (Senior Environmental Economist), Juan- produced with financial support from the Central Pablo Castaneda (Environmental Economist), Asia Water and Energy Program, a multi-donor Leela Raina (Environmental Economist), Marc partnership administered by the World Bank and Massicotte (Consultant) Mathias Shabanaj funded by the European Union, Switzerland, and Jankila (Consultant), William Young (Lead the United Kingdom (Central Asia Water Energy Water Specialist), Arthur Kochnakyan (Lead Program). 2 Financial support from PROGREEN3 Energy Specialist), Kseniya Lvovsky (Practice and The Program for Asia Connectivity and Trade 4 Manager, Environment, Natural Resources and is also gratefully acknowledged. 1234 1 The consultant team included Dr. Georg Petersen, Dr. Jens Kiesel, and Adrian J. van Schalkwyk from HYDROC GmbH; Dr. Vanja Westerberg and Simon Reynolds from Altus Impact; Dr. Timothy Pietsch and Dr. Andrew Brooks from Griffith University; local independent consultant Davlatov Davlatbeg; and Dr. Ben Jarihani, Dr. Roy Sidle, Muslim Bandishoev, Dr. Arnaud Caiserman, Dr. Maksim Kulikov, Vasila Sulaymonova, and Dr. Alvaro Salazar from the University of Central Asia. 2 https://www.worldbank.org/en/region/eca/brief/cawep. 3 https://www.progreen.info/?redirect _ id=block-views-block-slideshow-home-page-view-block-1. 4 https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/south-asia-regional-integration/brief/program-for-asia-connectivity-and-trade. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan vii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS Agriculture, Forestry, and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem AFOLU InVEST Other Land Use Services and Tradeoffs BAU Business-as-Usual Intergovernmental Panel on Climate IPCC Change BCR Benefit-Cost Ratio JFM Joint Forest Management CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis MC Management Cost DEM Digital Elevation Model MUSLE Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation DFI Development Finance Institution NGO Nongovernmental Organization DM Dry Matter NPV Net Present Value DRS Districts of Republican Subordination NTFP Non-Timber Forest Product Ecosystem-Based Disaster Risk ECO-DRR Resilience O&M Operation and Maintenance ESF Environmental and Social Framework PES Payment for Ecosystem Services EX-ACT EX-Ante Carbon-balance Tool PPP Public-Private Partnership Food and Agriculture Organization PUU Pasture Users Union FAO (of the United Nations) Revised Universal Soil RUSLE FUG Forest User Group Loss Equation GDP Gross Domestic Product SCC Social Cost of Carbon GHG Greenhouse Gas SDGs Sustainable Development Goals GIS Geographic Information System SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool HPP Hydropower Plant UCA University of Central Asia IC Implementation Cost United Nations Framework UNFCCC Convention on Climate Change International Fund for Agricultural IFAD Development USLE Universal Soil Loss Equation viii Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS ABSTRACT This report outlines the main results of a study Chapter 2 discusses the methods used to conducted to assess the potential role of assess the baseline information and to develop landscape restoration/nature-based solutions/ the integrated hydraulic and sediment transport green infrastructure in the Vakhsh River Basin, model, which was used to run various simulations Tajikistan, to reduce the impacts of soil erosion of landscape restoration interventions. It further on the hydropower cascade, increase agricultural discusses how suitable landscape restoration productivity, improve livelihoods, and inform about interventions were identified, how cost and investment opportunities. This assessment finds benefits were assessed, and how ecosystem sediment sources and loadings in the Vakhsh River services were estimated. Basin, considers the potential correlation between Chapter 3 shows the results from the baseline soil erosion and sedimentation in hydropower assessment, including catchment characterization, reservoirs, proposes possible and cost-effective geochemical tracing, climate change impacts and landscape restoration measures, and estimates the sediment budget, the selection of interventions, the value of ecosystem services provided. The study cost-benefit analysis, and the economic valuation also presents recommendations for implementing of the provisioning and regulating ecosystem the proposed interventions for the Vakhsh River services that may be influenced by implementing Basin and for scaling up to other degraded areas throughout the country. these interventions. To find, prioritize, and value the contribution of Chapter 4 presents the conclusions and key sustainable landscape restoration investments recommendations, which include suggestions within the Vakhsh catchment, advanced for further work to build on the assessments biophysical models and economic valuations were conducted in this study. combined and informed by literature reviews, The main conclusion is that landscape restoration/ stakeholder interviews, and field visits. The report nature-based solutions/green infrastructures consists of the following chapters: significantly benefit local, catchment, and global Chapter 1 overviews the land degradation problem stakeholders. By increasing land productivity currently faced in Tajikistan and in the Vakhsh and supplying livelihood opportunities, reducing catchment and how it relates to and affects sedimentation, decreasing downstream impacts hydropower generation, the idea of addressing the of floods and siltation, and improving carbon issue through landscape restoration interventions sequestration, landscape restoration increases and a catchment management approach, and the the resilience of people, ecosystems, and purpose of the study. infrastructures. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CONTEXT sedimentation. Mass wasting processes, including shallow and deep landslides, debris Millions of people in the Kyrgyz Republic, flows that directly enter channels, and deep gully Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan erosion, are the dominant sediment sources of the depend on the freshwater supply of the Vakhsh River and its tributaries (Jones, Manconi, Vakhsh River system (Gulakhmadov et al. and Strom 2021; Lohr 2018; Safarov et al. 2015). 2020). Sustainable access to water resources Erosion processes have been further fueled underpins energy generation, agriculture, forestry, by deforestation, unsustainable grazing, and livelihoods, economic growth, and broader poor agriculture management practices (World ecosystem services both nationally and regionally. Bank 2020a), all contributing to added reservoir In Tajikistan, 90 percent of the nation’s electric sedimentation and depletion of storage capacity. power generation capacity is produced by Land degradation comes at a high economic hydroelectric dams along the Vakhsh River cost to Tajikistan. Conservative estimates based (Xenarios, Laldjebaev, and Shenhav 2021). This on 2019 data range from US$574 million to US$950 cascade of dams includes the world’s second million annually, equivalent to 8.1 percent to 13.4 tallest dam, Nurek Dam, with the future addition percent of Tajikistan’s GDP, due to productivity of the Rogun Dam upstream, expected to be the losses of croplands and pastures (World Bank world’s highest when completed (Britannica 2019). 2020a). Moreover, Tajikistan is highly volatile to Approximately 75 percent of Tajikistan’s climate change in all sectors, ranked 100 out of 182 population reside in rural areas, and an in terms of climate vulnerability (World Bank 2021). estimated 49 percent of the rural population live Unsustainable land management and below the poverty line. The country’s agricultural associated land degradation also affected sector contributes to 22 percent of the gross livelihoods and caused damage to villages, domestic product (GDP) (World Bank 2022c) while roads, and farmland (Caritas 2019; World Bank employing 43 percent of the population. 5 Despite 2012). Furthermore, degraded landscapes are this, Tajikistan depends on imports to cover 75 more vulnerable to natural disasters and extreme percent of its food needs (World Bank 2022c). weather conditions, including droughts, heavy rainfall, floods, and landslides—phenomena THE PROBLEM likely to become increasingly prevalent in this Erosion processes occurring throughout the region in the coming decades because of climate Vakhsh River Basin are threatening hydropower change. The actual alterations in temperature and services and the reliability of irrigation precipitation, however, remain highly uncertain and water supply systems, due to reservoir (Gulakhmadov et al. 2020) 5 World Bank 2021 data, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=TJ. x Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Climate change is altering the distribution choice of any landscape restoration approach and of freshwater resources and influencing the combinations thereof depends on the context and hydrological processes in different river the local circumstances, including land use types systems in Central Asia. This is critical, as in and the restoration aims (Mansourian, Lamb, and 2015, only 74 percent of Tajikistan’s population was Gilmour 2005). estimated to have access to at least a basic level of water supply (World Bank 2021). The projected STUDY OBJECTIVES climate change scenarios in the Vakhsh River The study’s aim is to prioritize landscape Basin point to an increasing tendency of annual restoration interventions in the catchment streamflow and high-flow events (Kure et al. 2013). of the Vakhsh River, aiming to reduce soil Moreover, models from the World Bank suggest erosion’s impacts on the hydropower scheme, that the annual probability of meteorological increase productivity and improve livelihoods, drought in Tajikistan will rise from 3 percent to and inform potential future investments. The over 25 percent under all emissions pathways by report highlights the need to integrate landscape/ the 2050s (World Bank 2021). watershed approaches into hydropower’s design, implementation, and operation phases. In THE CASE FOR LANDSCAPE RESTORATION/ addition, this study’s findings provide information NATURE-BASED SOLUTIONS/GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE6 for the World Bank’s ‘Technical Assistance for Financing Framework for Rogun Hydropower Landscape restoration, intended as a mosaic Project’,7 particularly concerning the application of targeted interventions to reverse the of the World Bank’s Environmental and Social impacts of land degradation, presents many Framework (ESF). 8 environmental and socioeconomic benefits. It may enhance rural livelihoods and forest and The intended audiences for the report are agriculture productivity, hydrological provisioning local, national, and regional decision makers, and regulation of ecosystem services, climate including government officers, financiers, and change mitigation and adaptation, disaster risk policy makers, and technical staff, such as and sediment management, and reservoir storage landscape restoration practitioners and experts capacity. from the energy, agriculture, and water sectors. As argued in this study, there is a compelling The study identifies interventions and policy case for supporting economic development recommendations that hold relevance for the through investments into productive hydropower cascade in the Vakhsh River Basin. agricultural, pastoral, and forest landscapes The findings and methodology hold relevance at a within the Vakhsh River Basin, simultaneously national, regional, and global level. serving as green infrastructure to protect the The following six steps have been undertaken region’s water, energy, and food security. in conducting this study: (a) catchment There are many approaches to using landscape characterization and identification of sediment restoration to derive its maximum benefits. The sources and loadings in the Vakhsh River 6 The three terms are used interchangeably for the purpose of this report. 7 https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/01/12/tajikistan-to-improve-the-rogun-hydropower-project-implementation-with-world- bank-technical-assistance. 8 For more information on the World Bank’s ESF, see https://www.worldbank.org/en/projects-operations/environmental-and-social-framework . CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan xi Basin, including field tests and the innovative mosaic across all possible locations within the use of geochemical tracing, undertaken by the Vakhsh watershed. University of Central Asia (UCA) and Griffith Ecosystem service benefits that were analyzed University, respectively; (b) integrated sediment include the following: and hydrology modeling; (c) identification of • On-site benefits to local land users due to possible interventions, in consultation with local more productive land. Market value from stakeholders; (d) cost-benefit analysis (CBA); (e) enhanced timber supplies, livestock forage, Ecosystem service valuation; and (f) prioritization fruits, nuts, and fuelwood were assessed of interventions. This report presents the findings against the investment and management and conclusions from these steps, recommends costs (MCs) necessary to obtain them. how the different beneficiaries and recipients can • Downstream benefits to energy and water use the results, and outlines future work to improve sectors in Tajikistan from reduced reservoir the data and technical basis of the estimates. siltation and the regeneration of fragmented METHODOLOGY hydrological and carbon cycles were assessed from different angles: avoided The study used a systematic valuation dredging and reservoir restoration costs approach, anchored in stakeholder consultation from reduced reservoir siltation and value of with local stakeholders and nongovernmental enhanced water availability from reservoir organization s (NGOs), to define promising and storage, when used for downstream irrigation, possible landscape restoration interventions and enhanced water fluxes, from soil moisture, and identify where they may be upscaled, what lateral return flow, and groundwater infiltration, ecosystem services they deliver, and where and to as well as value from marketable carbon whom within the Vakhsh River Basin. credits from enhanced carbon sequestration. The most promising landscape restoration • Global benefits. Avoided global damage costs interventions were identified with stakeholders’ and marketable carbon credits from enhanced consultations. Considered aspects included what carbon sequestration. ecosystem service the interventions would deliver and the criteria for their establishment, suitable The method used to assess the sediment altitudes and slope angles (for orchards and sources included geochemical tracing. The grazing), and pre-existing land uses (for example, research, undertaken by Griffith University, sustainable pasture management interventions consisted of collecting sediment samples from the are assumed to be found on land that is already Vakhsh catchment and analyzing them for particle classified as pasture). size and geochemistry using ICP-MS 9 for 52 elements. Mixing modeling was then undertaken The net economic benefits of selected to find the proportional contributions of tributaries investments, orchards, woodlots, and at critical junctions. rotational grazing, are evaluated individually, as well as in a large-scale restoration scenario The method used to assess restoration that combines all interventions in a landscape interventions included the Soil and Water 9 Inductively coupled plasma time-of-flight mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) is used for multielement screening because of its ultra-high sensitivity and selectivity, high-throughput multi-element measuring capability, accurate absolute quantification in complex matrices, easy combination with chromatographic separation methods, complementarity with organic mass spectrometry, and isotope measuring ability. xii Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Assessment Tool (SWAT) 10 and the economic rural communities and land users themselves. Net valuation process, which were run sequentially. benefits to these stakeholders are presented first, The model was used to set up the baseline for followed by the catchment-wide co-benefits to the sediment and hydrological flows and to estimate broader Tajikistan society. those resulting from landscape restoration interventions. Monetarized ecosystem service Economic Net Benefits to Rural Communities benefits were used in a cost-benefit analysis to and Land Users estimate the net benefit of intervening in distinct • Benefits from rotational grazing. Using landscape restoration options relative to the nonconservative implementation costs (ICs), opportunity cost of continuing land uses under rotational grazing generates US$2.1 of benefits business-as-usual (BAU) practices. for every US$1 invested and a net present value This study’s models and economic analysis do (NPV) of US$45 per ha, equivalent to an annual not include climate change impacts. However, net benefit of US$1.5 per year per ha in present the research and recommendations considered value terms.  Assuming modest investment the expected effects of climate change on the costs, pasture users enjoy US$8.4 for every Vakhsh River Basin, which were assessed as part US$1 invested. This is not an unrealistic of the catchment characterization. The proposed outcome, considering ongoing innovation in landscape restoration interventions are intended virtual and mobile fencing (Wooten 2020). to mitigate these impacts and supply a means of • Benefits from woodlots. Accounting for the climate adaptation. marketable value of fuelwood, timber, and The study’s models and economic analysis also non-timber forest products (NTFPs), as well as did not include the impacts of soil erosion and the establishment, maintenance, harvesting, sedimentation on water quality. While the study and transportation costs, woodlots generate focused on water quantity, as well as the effects of US$3.3 of benefits per US$1 invested and soil erosion and land degradation on hydrological an NPV of  US$31,690 per ha, equivalent to flows, it recognizes the importance of including an annual net benefit of US$1,060 per ha in a this aspect in future work, especially with the 30-year rotation. escalation of climate change. • Benefits from orchards. The highest net RESULTS benefit may be enjoyed from the establishment of orchards. Preferred species for orchard A CBA was assessed over a 30-year period development include apples, walnuts, pears, (2022–2052) to make the economic case for peaches, and apricots. Considering a mixed landscape restoration. Following World Bank apple and walnut orchard,  orchards generate guidelines, discounted into present value terms US$4.2 in benefits for every dollar invested using 6 percent, results are robust to different and an NPV of US$61,240 per ha, equivalent to key parameter assumptions (more importantly, an  annual net benefit  of  US$2,040  per ha in reducing the benefits years span, changes to present value terms. the discount rate, and increasing cost of capital, among others). The primary beneficiaries are the • Livelihood benefits for rural communities. 10 SWAT is globally used to simulate the quality and quantity of surface water and groundwater and to predict the environmental impact of land use, land management practices, and climate change. It is also used in assessing soil erosion prevention and control, nonpoint source pollution control, and regional management in watersheds. For more information, see https://swat.tamu.edu/. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan xiii Since half of the estimated population in the Upstream of Rogun, erosion and sediment Vakhsh River Basin (about 530,000 people ) 11 transport decreased by 4.4 m3 of sediment per are engaged in agriculture (ADB 2021a), it ha per year over 30 years,13 ranging from 3.7 m3 can be expected that land restoration will per ha of restored pastureland14 to 15.1 m3 per directly benefit at least 265,000 people, or ha for woodlot establishment. In terms of the 45,000 households based on an average avoided reservoir construction cost, reduced household size of 5.9 in Tajikistan (GDL 2022). erosion from mosaic restoration translates The potential benefit to rural livelihoods is, into a present value benefit of US$27 per ha therefore, impressive. However, inferring how of restored land over 30 years. Alternatively, those benefits are distributed among the considering avoided dredging costs, current different districts and population segments value benefits are US$162 per ha of restored is out of the scope of this study. This will landscape. also depend on prevailing benefit-sharing • Hydrological flows. Landscape restoration arrangements between public and private also affects the water balance. The SWAT stakeholders, including farmers, pasture users, analysis shows that the regeneration of soil and the associated producers’ associations. health in the mosaic landscape restoration scenario leads to an average annual increase Catchment-Wide Co-Benefits to in freshwater availability (soil water retention, Tajikistan Society lateral flow, runoff, and groundwater • Sediment reductions. Maximum overall infiltration) of approximately 28 m3 of water erosion and sediment reduction are achieved per ha restored per year.15 The total economic under the mosaic landscape restoration cost of water, which considers the use and scenario covering 1 million ha of land opportunity cost of the resource for irrigation, within the Vakhsh catchment (including was then estimated. Using the total cost of approximately 32,300 ha of orchards, 183,000 irrigation water of US$0.1 per m3 , the present ha of woodlots, and 751,000 ha of rangeland). value benefit of enhanced water availability In this scenario, erosion is reduced by 6.7 is US$1.4 per year per ha under the mosaic landscape restoration scenario or US$43 per percent compared to the ‘BAU’ state of ha over 30 years. degraded land. This is equivalent to a present value benefit of US$15 per year per ha, via • Combining all the benefits of sustainable woodland reforestation, in terms of avoided landscape management, the value of dredging costs. 12 Sediment reduction can reservoir capacity for irrigation water, be attributed to the decline in gully erosion. enhanced water availability, improved pasture 11 Based on 2020 WorldPop data. 12 Based on information available, it was not possible to confirm whether Rogun will have sufficient dead storage available, when completed, to avoid any impingement on live storage due to ongoing sedimentation, and hence whether the reservoir will need any sediment dredging activities. There was no information also regarding the potential need for future dredging to reduce the risk of any operational or dam safety issues caused by sediment build-up. Nevertheless, the study revealed that even after potential completion of Rogun, proposed landscape restoration measures would still provide benefits for Rogun itself as well as for the rest of the hydro assets downstream of it, all of which will still receive sediments (passing through Rogun, during operational and sediment-removal activities, as well as via soil erosion that will continue to occur downstream of Rogun). 13 Full restoration benefits kick in after 6 years for grazing land and 15 years for orchards and woodlots. At this moment, sediment reduction benefits range from 3.7 m3 per ha of sustainably managed grazing land to 15.1 m3 per ha for woodlots establishment. 14 When full soil regeneration potential is met, 6 years after the implementation. 15 Theinterventions are expected to alter the microclimate toward more moist conditions, and therefore, a possible increase in evapotranspiration due to the interventions has been neglected here (see also Filoso et al. 2017; Smith et al. 2023). xiv Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS and land productivity, timber and NTFP, and could lead to losses of lives, livelihoods, and sale of carbon credits, the Tajikistan society biodiversity and dam and reservoir safety stands to enjoy an NPV benefit of US$284 issues (GIZ 2020; Gulakhmadov et al. 2020; per ha of land restored of which land users Kure et al. 2013). themselves can expect an average annual CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS additional income of US$269 per ha, from NTFPs, timber, and enhanced pasture • Landscape restoration significantly biomass. These are conservative benefit benefits local, catchment, and global estimates, however. Considering the avoided stakeholders. By increasing land productivity climate-related damage costs, 16 the global and supplying livelihood opportunities, societal NPV benefit is US$390 per year per reducing downstream impacts of floods and ha restored. siltation, and improving carbon sequestration, • landscape restoration increases resilience of Scaling up these interventions to their people, ecosystems, and infrastructures. maximum intervention potential across 966,600 ha of land within the Vakhsh • While each restoration possibility— catchment (including 32,350 ha of orchards, orchards, woodlots, and rotational grazing— 182,900 ha of woodlots, and 751,350 ha of have distinct economic returns to society, rangeland) provides an estimated US$8.3 no landscape restoration intervention billion in present value net benefits to the can be classified as better compared to Tajikistan society over a 30-year time horizon another. What type of restoration intervention and a 6 percent discount rate, including land may be favored in one area depends on user benefits and conservative values of the suitability of the land, the institutions regulating ecosystem services benefits. governing that land, and the preferences of • affected stakeholders, for example, Is the land The benefit-cost ratio (BCR) to the Tajik already used as pastureland? Is there a well- society is 3.6, consistent with other studies managed pasture users union (PUU) that can on the benefits of green infrastructure. It implement sustainable grazing measures? is important to highlight that the added Or are there irrigation facilities nearby for benefits of landscape restoration measures orchard establishment? The interventions may include enhanced climate change adaptation therefore be viewed as complementary and can capabilities and reduced ecosystem-based allow for regenerating land use productivity, disaster risks (Beetz and Rinehart 2010; stabilize soils, and enhance hydrological Sayre 2001). Climate adaptation and risk processes on at least 31 percent of the land management are significant in the Vakhsh surface within the Vakhsh catchment.17 catchment in the context of projected increases in temperatures, droughts and • Benefits to hydropower from reduced floods, fires, landslides and other mass erosion upstream of Rogun. For every movements; increased soil erosion; and hectare of land restored in mosaic landscape reduced glaciers and snow cover, all of which restoration, erosion is reduced by an average 16 Using a midpoint for the social cost of carbon (SCC), which increases from a minimum US$40/tCO 2 to a maximum US$80/tCO 2 in 2020 to US$78–156/ tCO 2 by 2050. 17 Approximately 966,616 ha, out of a total watershed area of 3.1 million ha. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan xv of 4.4 m3 per year upstream of Rogun. The and the public treasury, which is heavily interventions also offer enhanced climate subsidizing electricity for pump stations. resilience by increasing soil moisture—a form The free financial resources could be used in of passive irrigation—reducing runoff and innovative financing mechanisms, for example, increasing lateral return flow to rivers, thereby payments for ecosystem services (PESs) securing water availability and inflow to the systems and blended finance solutions. cascade of dams on the Vakhsh River. For capital-constrained farmers, payoff periods for Policy Recommendations woodlots and orchards may be high (6–8 years, • Develop a strategy to address landscape under a 6 percent discount rate). Moreover, restoration along the Vakhsh River Basin. implementing successful rotational grazing Developing a strategy will aid with land schemes hinges on certain land management management in the Vakhsh River Basin while rights and established PUUs. also serving as a basis for future strategies for • In terms of securing future production of other projects. Such a strategy should include hydropower energy, sustainable sediment a wider developmental vision for the areas management is necessary for the Vakhsh surrounding the Vakhsh River Basin while River Basin to serve the people of Tajikistan also addressing policies, economic measures, for a century from now and avoid significant data, and technical capabilities needed for cost burden on future generations. In this land restoration to succeed. sense, any efforts to reduce sediment inflow • Mainstream and implement sustainable and mitigate and adapt to climate change grazing and landscape restoration measures cannot start soon enough. into respective policies and legislation, • Therefore, a targeted effort, financial at a local and national level. Examples at resources, and favorable land use the national level are design manuals for legislation are required to scale these non-rotational grazing; requirements for landscape interventions. For example, given compensation measures; requirements for the multiple functions of trees in building consideration of erosion prevention measures; and protecting soils, supporting water and and broader aspects such as no-grazing nutrient cycles, and supplying a buffer against buffering zones along riverbanks, active climate extremes, 18 planting trees should be natural hazard zones, and roads. incentivized in Tajikistan. • Establish closer coordination and planning • Furthermore, existing market and policy with local authorities and farmers to distortions can be repurposed to mobilize identify what land restoration intervention financial resources. For example, use of will work best for their communities. irrigation water could become more efficient Through discussions with local stakeholders, by increasing tariffs. Excessive irrigation leads this report has identified several landscape to soil salinization, water logging, and water restoration options and has highlighted their productivity. Water use conservation efforts economic benefits. The choice of landscape would significantly reduce costs to the farmer restoration is dependent on the local context, 18 Winds, heat stress, and flooding. xvi Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS and more cooperation between central and restoration to increase the resilience of local governments is therefore key. Examples infrastructure, people, and ecosystems in the of such coordination mechanisms could Vakhsh River Basin. include councils, commissions, and inter-local Technical Recommendations administration cooperatives for coordinating landscape restoration activities across • It is recommended to set up a bathymetric communities. survey program for the reservoirs in the Vakhsh River Basin, to regularly • Landscape restoration and sustainable measure sediment build-up and monitor sediment monitoring and management trends against first predictions. The rate approach should be integrated into the of sedimentation is a critical information design, implementation, and operation for the entire life cycle of hydropower and phases of the Tajikistan hydropower sector. water storage reservoirs, from design to Using this report and the Vakhsh River Basin decommissioning. While sediment models as a best practice, these aspects should be can be useful to undertake projections and integrated and implemented into the growing simulation scenarios, real data are essential and crucial hydropower sector in Tajikistan to for planning any type of interventions. sustainably manage water resources. • A climate change impact assessment for • Identify the fiscal policies and green the Vakhsh River Basin and hydropower finance needed to implement the cascade is recommended in the future. The proposed restoration interventions and assessment, which can further underpin the to scale up restoration finance for future projects. Considering the significant payoff values of green infrastructure for increasing period, especially for farmers, co-financing climate resilience and sectoral adaptation, arrangements such as public-private should include an assessment of the impacts partnerships (PPPs) may be necessary to of climate change on soil erosion and reservoir scale up restoration efforts and attract public sedimentation rates. As climate change affects and private capital into restoration. the hydrological and ecological system in a complex spatio-temporal cause-effect chain, • PES schemes should be designed and particularly in snow and glacier-dominated implemented to protect and restore the regions, quantitative causes of the changes upper part of the Vakhsh River Basin, control cannot be drawn without a detailed climate the stock and flow of sediment more effectively, change impact assessment. and ultimately regulate the quantity of eroded sediment reaching the stream network and • It is recommended to prepare catchment- the catchment’s water quality and quantity. scale strategic environmental and social assessment of the Vakhsh River Basin. The • Repurpose existing inefficient policies and results of this study supply useful information subsidies within agriculture and irrigation for the environment and social assessment toward incentives for landscape restoration, processes for the Rogun Dam construction green infrastructure, and nature-based as part of the implementation of the World solutions. Reshaping inefficient subsidies Bank’s ESF. in water irrigation and agriculture can open opportunities for investments in landscape • It is recommended to include in future work CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan xvii the assessment of the potential adverse Basin and Rogun. impacts of soil erosion and sedimentation • It is recommended that any efforts to on water quality for the Vakhsh River Basin, regenerate landscapes are accompanied using a combination of global studies and with capacity building in climate change tools (that is, WaterWorld tool19) and field adaptation strategies among water user measures to estimate upstream-downstream links and surface water and groundwater associations, PUUs, and forest user groups quality impacts. This work would allow to (FUGs), to emphasize the importance of revise the CBA, and prioritization of restoration landscape restoration as an adaptive measure interventions also informs the environmental and prepare the communities for the expected and social assessment of the Vakhsh River future conditions. 19 19 https://www.policysupport.org/waterworld. xviii Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 ENVIRONMENTAL AND and stressed water resources for many rural SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXT communities (World Bank 2020c). Tajikistan is a mountainous and landlocked Land degradation and unsustainable use country with a population of 10 million in 2022 of natural resources pose considerable and is the poorest country in Central Asia constraints for rural development in Tajikistan (Borgen 2020; USAID 2022; World Bank 2023b). (World Bank 2020a). Conservative estimates Recovery has been slowed by uneven economic of the total economic cost of land degradation reforms, weak governance, high external debt, in Tajikistan are between US$574 million and and seasonal electric power shortages (USAID US$950 million, equivalent to 8.1 percent to 2022). About 26.3 percent of the population 13.4 percent of GDP (World Bank 2020a). The lived below the national poverty line in 2019, and significant economic cost is related to yield losses 75 percent live in rural areas (ADB 2022). The in croplands. country has a per capita gross domestic product As a result, Tajikistan tops malnutrition among (GDP) of US$822 and a narrow economic base the former Soviet republics (WFP 2016). About reliant on a few products (for example, cotton and 530,000 people are living within the Vakhsh River aluminum) and remittances. In 2020, remittances Basin, 22 51 percent of the population is engaged formed 27 percent of GDP and agriculture formed in farming, and household data from the Yovon 20 percent. Agriculture, however, accounts for 43 district in the Vakhsh catchment (covering 40,355 percent of the country’s total employment, 20 and ha)  suggest that the average farm size is in the poverty stays concentrated in rural communities order of 5.2 has (ADB 2021b). dependent on natural resources—particularly Tajikistan, on the other hand, is the world’s poverty in terms of access to land, water resources, highest per capita hydroelectric power and agriculture (UNDP 2012). producer. Characterized by its mountainous The total arable land area in the country is terrain with peaks of 6,000 m, the country has limited to just 6 percent of the total land area, taken advantage of its geomorphology to build corresponding to 0.09 ha of arable land per a significant amount of installed hydropower capita. 21 The main production areas include capacity and has become a net hydropower valleys and foothills in temperate climatic exporter in Central Asia. zones (GEF 2016). However, the value of output About 90 percent of the nation’s electric power produced per cubic meter of irrigation water is generation capacity is from hydroelectric dams still exceptionally low, resulting in food insecurity along the Vakhsh River (Xenarios et al. 2021). 20 World Bank 2020 data, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS?locations=TJ. 21 World Bank 2020 data, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.LND.ARBL.ZS. 22 Based on 2020 WorldPop data. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 1 The Vakhsh River Basin is in the western Pamir the Rogun HPP Project can contribute to mountains in Tajikistan. The river drains into the decarbonization of the Central Asia region. 24 Panj, which then forms the Amu Darya River. Tajikistan’s sustainable hydropower potential The hydrological regime of the Vakhsh River is was recently showcased by having the glacier and snow dominated, where the highest world’s first project to be certified against streamflow occurs during the summer snowmelt the Hydropower Sustainability Standard. 25 period ranging from April to October, with the The standard, developed by the International peak in July or August. The incised riverbed in the Hydropower Association in collaboration with mountainous terrain, the presence of bedrock, partners including the World Bank and the and the reliable river flows led to the development first global certification system of its kind in of a series of hydropower dams and reservoirs the renewables sector, outlines sustainability along the Vakhsh River. This hydropower cascade expectations for hydropower projects around the includes the world’s second tallest dam, Nurek world in alignment with the safeguards of key Dam, with the future addition of the Rogun Dam lenders. The outstanding result of Sebzor HPP, upstream, which will become the world’s tallest an 11 MW hydropower project located along the dam once it is completed (Britannica 2019). Shokhandra River, has set the bar for the industry The Nurek hydropower plant (HPP), with an to follow and demonstrates that, in the words of installed capacity of over 3,000 MW, generates the 2021 San José Declaration: “going forward, about 50 percent of the total annual energy the only acceptable hydropower is sustainable demand in Tajikistan. It recently initiated a hydropower.” 26 rehabilitation project to refurbish its over 40 years old turbines. The completion of the first turbine, 1.2 THE PROBLEM which extends the economic life by 35 years and Erosion and land degradation negatively affect increases the installed capacity by 40 MW to 375 Tajikistan’s hydropower generating capacity MW, was a major milestone. 23 and the broader economy (World Bank 2020a). The Rogun HPP Project, currently under Sedimentation is steadily depleting reservoir construction, has the potential to generate storage capacity worldwide. The estimated loss significant economic, social, and environmental of reservoir storage capacity ranges between benefits for Tajikistan and other countries 0.5 and 1 percent per year compared to the in the Central Asia region if it develops in installed capacity (Basson 2009; Mahmood 1987; a financially, environmentally, and socially Palmieri et al. 2003). While excessive sediment sustainable manner. Once completed, it will be inflow is one of many factors that can reduce the critical in helping Tajikistan to meet its domestic efficiency of HPPs, it is of particular concern in energy demands, especially during wintertime, the Central Asian belt, given the geomorphology and to support neighboring countries through of these mountains and the land degradation the export of surplus electricity. In addition, as a and deforestation they have suffered. Rivers reliable source of clean and affordable electricity, transport sediment, made up of sand, gravel, silt 23 https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/10/24/tajikistan-inaugurates-the-first-unit-of-the-nurek-hydropower-plant. 24 https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2023/01/12/tajikistan-to-improve-the-rogun-hydropower-project-implementation-with-world- bank-technical-assistance. 25 https://www.hydropower.org/sustainability-standard. 26 https://www.hydropower.org/publications/2023-world-hydropower-outlook. 2 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS and clay, and other fine particles, which tend to and removing tree canopies on croplands (Caritas be deposited when water reaches a reservoir. 2019; World Bank 2012). Over time, sediment transport changes the overall Currently, the country’s forest area covers only geomorphology of the river. It affects the reservoir 2–3 percent of Tajikistan’s territory compared and the downstream environment that is deprived to 16–18 percent a century ago. Over the last of sediment essential for channel form and aquatic decade, there has been a noticeable increase in habitats (Kondolf et al. 2014). Reservoir storage livestock numbers, accelerating the degradation function can be reduced, depending upon the of pastures, especially village pastures (Philipona volume of sediment the river carries. Furthermore, et al. 2019). Unregulated transhumance and excessive sedimentation can lead to dam safety elevated levels of forest grazing are particularly hazards (California State Coastal Conservancy damaging to forest health (Mislimshoeva, Herbst, 2007; U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 2006) and and Koellner 2016). damages to the turbines and other parts of the Land degradation comes at a high economic plant (Wang and Kondolf 2014). cost estimated at US$574 to US$950 million per Due to the steep gradients, little vegetative cover, year, equivalent to 8.1 percent to 13.4 percent of erodible and shallow soils, and the hydrologic Tajikistan’s current GDP. The significant cost is regime with intense snowmelt, the Vakhsh related to yield losses on croplands and pastures, River Basin is highly vulnerable to erosion. loss of croplands (to abandonment or fallow), and Sheet, rill, and gully erosion; screes; and landslides health problems (World Bank 2020a). In addition, are widespread in the Vakhsh catchment. The land degradation affects the hydropower sector, losses and threats from these erosion processes resulting in loss of efficiency and reservoir storage, are manifold, ranging from agricultural and forest along with other hydrological impacts and risks. productivity losses, casualties due to landslides, Climate change exacerbates land degradation and potentially blocked rivers through landslides processes. As the planet warms, extreme damming the river flow path. In addition, the river weather events, including more prolonged and carries high sediment loads into the reservoirs, with more intense droughts, heavier rainfall leading an estimated long-term input of around 93 million to floods and landslides, and more frequent and tons per year into the Nurek Reservoir (HRW 2015), intense tropical storms, worsen land degradation. which reduces the reservoir’s storage capacities Forests, cropland, and rangeland in Tajikistan and its useful life. are expected to be affected by climate change The main drivers of land degradation in through extreme weather events, affecting Tajikistan are natural mass wasting processes erosion and sediment transport and increasing and anthropogenic poor land use practices, the vulnerability of livelihoods and biodiversity including agriculture, irrigation, deforestation, (Kirilenko and Sedjo 2007). and grazing. Unsustainable land management At the same time, land degradation accelerates and conversion contribute to sheet and rill erosion climate change and its consequences. The and severe gully erosion (Amare et al. 2019; Li et al. latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel 2021). Other causes of decline include using steep on Climate Change (IPPC) indicates that in 2019, hillsides to grow cereal crops, vertical plowing, approximately 22 percent (13 GtCO2-eq27) of the 27 The amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission that would cause the same integrated radiative forcing or temperature change, over a given time horizon, as an emitted amount of a greenhouse gas (GHG) or a mixture of GHGs. (IPCC 2018, Annex I: Glossary) CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 3 net global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions came About 49 percent of Tajikistan’s rural from agriculture, forestry, and other land use population are living below the poverty line, (AFOLU) (IPCC 2023). About half of the total net and therefore, combating land degradation and AFOLU emissions are from CO2 LULUCF (emissions poverty is particularly important. Approximately from land use, land use change, and forestry), 73.6 percent of the country’s population of 8.6 predominantly from deforestation. In addition million live in rural areas, and Tajikistan depends to being a net carbon sink and a source of GHG on  imports  to cover 75 percent of  its food  needs emissions, land plays an essential role in climate (World Bank 2022c) due to insufficient domestic through albedo effects, evapotranspiration, and food production (OSCE 2018). It is particularly aerosol loading via emissions of volatile organic vulnerable to international food market shocks compounds (IPCC 2023). and would significantly benefit from improved agricultural practices, which enhance food, water, The Amu Darya, which flows through and energy security while supplying an added Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, green and inclusive growth source. Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, supplies water for drinking, agriculture, and hydropower and 1.3 THE CASE FOR LANDSCAPE sustains the Aral Sea (Glantz 2005). The river RESTORATION basin is home to about 80 million people (Babow Landscape restoration, intended as a and Meisen 2012). mosaic of interventions to restore land Over 60 percent of all freshwater resources in degradation, presents many benefits including Central Asia are formed within the borders of the improved livelihood, forest and agriculture Republic of Tajikistan (MFA 2020). The Vakhsh productivity, infrastructure protection, and River is a headwater tributary to the Amu Darya. climate adaptation. It involves the use of green However, climate variability and anthropogenic infrastructures, natural-based solutions, and actions have significantly altered water availability sustainable land management practices, including within the Vakhsh River (Prakash et al. 2014). tree planting for forest restoration, reforestation, Snow- and glacier-melted water contributes more and afforestation; assisted natural regeneration; to river discharge, particularly with peak flow in agroforestry and silvopasture; adaptive grazing; summer (June–September) (Jalilov et al. 2016). terracing for slope correction (Pye-Smit 2013; Further glacier retreat is projected, which will Reij and Garrity 2016); and various sustainable hurt the region’s water availability. At the same land management practices, including planting time, the annual water demand in the basin could hedgerows and cover crops, using crop residues increase by 3.8–5.0 percent by 2050 (Hagg et al. and mulches, trenching, and bunding. There is no 2013). The area of irrigated land in the Vakhsh River single approach for using landscape restoration system is about 172,200 ha (ICWC 2019). It is also a to supply green infrastructure. significant source for the generation of green energy Targeted landscape restoration interventions in Central Asia, with the Nurek Reservoir being the can minimize the loss of soil and downstream largest in this region (according to the original water sedimentation, the positive impact of which storage volume of 10.5 km ) (Gulakhmadov et al. 3 can be felt across many sectors of the economy, 2020). In this context, the sustainable management including energy, agriculture, and water, while of the water and land resources of the Vakhsh River reviving farm household economies , mitigating Basin cannot be compromised. climate change, and reducing disaster risks 4 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS and biodiversity loss. Integrated catchment long-term storage, hydropower, and other management can also allow the local communities benefits; and minimizing environmental harm to be part of benefit-sharing arrangements through (Morris 2020). Management strategies focus on payment for ecosystem services (PES) schemes improving the sediment balance across reservoirs and the sale of carbon credits on the voluntary by reducing sediment yield from the watershed, carbon market. routing sediment-laden flows around or through the reservoir, and removing sediment following Large-scale landscape restoration, however, deposition. Successful management will typically requires significant investments and resource combine multiple strategies (Morris 2020). mobilization. Whether such investments can be justified remains one of many questions. Which Avoiding sediment deposition in the first place sectors stand to enjoy the most significant share of through landscape restoration is the first-best, the benefits, and in what proportion? Is landscape most cost-effective choice (Randle and Boyd restoration sufficient as a sediment management 2018). While the hydropower sector has begun strategy for supporting reservoir capacity? to recognize the need for managing sediment Presented below are the potential benefits of production from landscapes as an integrated part landscape restoration for the Vakhsh River Basin of a sediment management strategy (Annandale, and the broader Tajikistan society. Morris, and Karki 2016), further evidence is needed to prove the benefits from reducing sediment 1.3.1 Sediment Management and inflow to reservoirs (Kondolf et al. 2014). Hydropower Generation Hydropower is central to the energy security of 1.3.2 Hydrological Services Tajikistan and Central Asia. Tajikistan has more The Vakhsh River Basin supplies hydrological than 350 hydroelectric power plants that generate ecosystem services that are important to local 95 percent of the country’s electricity. According communities and the water security of the to its National Development Strategy, Tajikistan entire region, besides hydropower generation. intends to increase its energy capacity to 10,000 Landscape restoration contributes to regenerating MW by 2030 (MFA 2020). Such prospects could be soil health and is a sustainable measure to hindered by excessive sedimentation that reduces secure hydrological ecosystem services through reservoir storage. Abrasive sediments passing increasing the soil’s capacity to hold water through turbines can damage the machines, (USDA-NRCS 2014). This improves groundwater increasing operation costs, reducing generation infiltration, reduces surface runoff, regulates efficiency, and posing significant safety hazards seasonal flows, reduces floods, and increases the (Wang and Kondolf 2014). As sedimentation availability of water for crops (USDA 2017). Rain- continues, clogging of spillway tunnels or other fed agriculture will benefit through higher soil conduits reduces spillway capacity, as already water content and groundwater infiltration. Those seen at Nurek HPP (AIIB 2017; D-Sediment 2022). dependent on run-of-river fed irrigation will also Landscape restoration and sustainable benefit from enhanced return flow 28 to rivers and sediment management seek to balance reduced erosion and runoff. sediment inflow and outflow, restoring sediment Further hydrological benefits of landscape delivery to the downstream channel; maximizing restoration are more balanced flows with 28 The portion of the streamflow that is sustained between precipitation events, fed to streams by delayed pathways, contrary to surface runoff. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 5 smaller flood peaks, potentially reduced to the probable alterations in temperature and reservoir spills during peak events, and less precipitation (Gulakhmadov et al. 2020). In this water lost for hydropower production. Further, light, efforts to attenuate siltation and fluctuations downstream irrigation schemes may benefit from a in overall water availability through landscape timelier water release. Other hydrological services restoration and climate-resilient farming are well associated with healthy soils and landscapes invested. Notably, landscape restoration allows include water purification, flood reduction, for enhancing overall water quality and quantity, habitat protection, and cultural and recreational including soil water retention and reduction of ecosystem services. runoff. Landscape restoration, along with other regenerative farming practices, offers a strategy 1.3.3 Agriculture Productivity and Rural for the Tajikistan farming sector to reduce its Development dependency on irrigated croplands as a source With soils  playing a pivotal role in carbon, of income, with further positive effects in terms nutrient, and water cycles, changes to of more drought-resilient farming systems and vegetation cover and soil structure can the savings that are generated from running the translate into countless economic and societal irrigation and drainage network. benefits to rural communities of the Vakhsh Despite an increase in the length of the growing River Basin, underpinning provisioning as well as season under future GHG emissions scenarios, regulating ecosystem services. agricultural productivity in Tajikistan is at risk Improving the vegetation cover of soils and due to rising temperatures, more frequent maintenance of living roots are the pillars and intense heatwaves, as well as the risk of efforts to regenerate land productivity. of reduced irrigation water availability due Perennial tree crops, balanced rotational grazing to higher evaporation and glacier retreat schemes, reduced tillage, and crop rotations, (especially in late summer) (GIZ 2020). Climate among other practices, contribute to these ‘soil change also affects livestock and rangelands, health principles’. Living roots, in turn, improve through increased livestock heat stress, soil nitrogen fixation, carbon sequestration, and erosion, nutrient runoff, and a reduction in prevention of soil erosion and soil nutrient losses, forage quality and quantity. Restoration and thereby improving crop and rangeland yields. the sustainable land management assessed in Moreover, tree canopy lowers temperatures; this report can help mitigate climate change serves as windbreaks; and supplies firewood, and attenuate the impacts of climate change fodder, medicinal plants, fruits, and nuts that are in the Vakhsh catchment. Rotational grazing, important income sources to rural populations in for example, is characterized by periodical Tajikistan (GIZ 2019). movement of livestock to fresh paddocks to allow pastures time to regrow before they are 1.3.4 Climate Change Adaptation grazed again. 29 When properly implemented, the The size of future seasonal streamflow in the management strategy helps improve land cover, Vakhsh River Basin is still highly uncertain due animal nutrition, soil structure, biodiversity, and 29 Compared to continuous grazing, rotational grazing involves moving livestock through several smaller pastures, with one pasture being grazed at a time, and therefore provides time for defoliated grasses to recover and increases efficiency in grassland utilization. When the grazing area is divided into multiple pastures per herd, the grazing period will be shorter while recovery period for each pasture will be longer, thereby potentially allowing for greater stocking capacity and increased profitability (Wang 2020). 6 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS soil organic matter, thus reducing runoff, limiting (SDG 7), economic growth and decent work for soil erosion, and increasing pasture drought rural populations (SDG 8), and climate action resilience (Beetz and Rinehart 2010; Sayre 2001; (SDG 13). At an international level, implemented USDA 2023). Perennial components of orchard landscape restoration supports the United and agroforestry systems create microclimates Nations Convention to Combat Desertification that help crops and livestock (Dosskey, Brandle, and the Land Degradation Neutrality goal, the and Bentrup 2017), serve as forest corridors in United Nations Framework Convention on Climate agricultural landscapes that enhance habitat Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement, and connectivity (Schoeneberger, Bentrup, and Patel- the Convention on Biological Diversity and the Weynand 2017), and reduce water and wind Aichi Biodiversity Targets. erosion of soil while improving soil nutrients and moisture retention (Apuri et al. 2018). 1.4 PURPOSE OF THIS STUDY This study aims to (a) identify sediment loads Woodlot restoration and reforestation can also and sources at the hydropower dams along the play a key role in decreasing vulnerabilities Vakhsh River of Tajikistan; (b) identify promising to climate change, conditional on good forest landscape restoration interventions and management (Duncker et al., 2012). Moreover, possible sites; (c) analyze these landscape an increased supply of timber and non-timber restoration interventions’ contribution to forest products (NTFPs), such as fuelwood, reducing erosion and reservoir sedimentation nuts, fruits, and potential marketing of carbon and improve hydrological ecosystem services, credits, will contribute to more durable livelihood carbon sequestration, forest and agricultural opportunities, improved food security, and longer- productivity, livelihoods, and farm-related income; term development goals. Overall, a catchment and (d) assess the monetary benefits and costs with a restored and healthy vegetative cover is of the ecosystem services delivered through the significantly more resilient against frequent and different landscape restoration interventions. more severe extreme events such as floods and The restoration interventions should be droughts. Hence, climate change amplifies the complementary, allowing for maximum upscaling benefits evaluated under the baseline climatic of landscape restoration efforts across private and conditions. public ranges, forests, and cropland. 1.3.5 Other Co-Benefits The cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is developed By building and keeping natural capital, to show the economic case for landscape landscape restoration catalyzes action that restoration intervention and how farmers and can directly deliver on national sustainable the broader society (climate, water, and energy- development priorities , in tandem with the related sectors) benefit from the landscape Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (IUCN restoration interventions. Based on the critical 2019). Through the diversification of rural livelihood financial parameters, the economic feasibility options, increased farm household incomes, of implementing different landscape restoration biodiversity protection, and water purification interventions and conditions for success are services, landscape restoration contributes to highlighted. The investment criteria can help ending poverty (SDG 1), improving food security practitioners target landscape restoration (SDG 2), good health (SGD 3), clean water and interventions that match their goals of livelihood sanitation (SDG 6), affordable and clean energy improvement and the provisioning of broader CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 7 ecosystem service benefits. In addition to project- the design, implementation, and operation phases. specific ‘per hectare’ estimates, the report also The intended recipients of the report are highlights the significant economic returns which local, national, and regional decision makers, can be enjoyed from large-scale landscape including government officers, financiers, restoration within the Vakhsh River Basin. and policy makers, and technical staff, such Another aim of the study is to supply information as landscape restoration practitioners and for the environmental and social assessment experts from the energy, agriculture, and processes for the Rogun Dam construction water sectors. The study is intended to inform and the World Bank’s environmental and social other sectors relying on the catchment, including framework (ESF). The report could also inform the health, human development, and education, World Bank’s ‘Policy Guidance Note on Sediment particularly universities and rural schools, which Management for Sustainable Development of have the potential to become hubs for building Dams, Reservoirs, and Hydropower Facilities’ environment and climate awareness and resilience (World Bank 2023a) and highlights the need to in communities, as highlighted in a recent study integrate landscape/watershed approaches into (World Bank 2022a). 8 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS 2. METHODOLOGY 2.1 IDENTIFICATION OF BASELINE The sediment budget of the Vakhsh River Basin, INFORMATION upstream of the Baipasa Reservoir, is estimated using a coupled modeling procedure, using This study included research to assess the the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). 30 characteristics of the Vakhsh River Basin The SWAT model, preferred over other open- and the sediment loads and sources at the source tools as it allows for combined modeling hydropower dams along the Vakhsh River. The of hydrology and the spatio-temporal distribution methodologies for undertaking these activities and of soil moisture and surface runoff-driven erosion using the results are presented in the next chapter. processes (Neitsch et al. 2011), was coupled to a Due to the high uncertainties and nonlinear custom-built landslide, gulley erosion, and scree relationship between climate, erosion, and model to capture all important mass wasting sediment transport processes, climate change mechanisms and the respective sediment sources. impacts have yet to be included in this study’s SWAT is an open-source hydrological model models and economic analysis. However, the that is used worldwide for a wide range of expected impacts of climate change on the Vakhsh tasks, including successful applications in the River Basin were assessed, as presented in the Vakhsh River and glaciers (Omani et al. 2017a, next chapter, and the results were used to inform 2017b). It can simulate sheet and rill erosion. the main study and selection of measures. Thus, In the mountainous region of the Vakhsh River the proposed landscape restoration interventions Basin, mass erosion occurs in addition and are also intended to mitigate these impacts and delivers substantial amounts of sediment to the supply a means of climate adaptation. streams. The model, which supplied the physical 2.2 INTEGRATED HYDRAULIC boundary conditions for the ecosystem services’ AND SEDIMENT MODEL assessment, considers the geophysical and meteorological catchment characteristics to A comprehensive hydraulic and sediment calculate hydrological and erosion processes. transport model was developed , which supplied the physical boundary conditions for Sheet and rill erosion, which occurs on the ecosystem services’ assessment. The model agricultural fields, degraded pastures, bare considers the geophysical and meteorological areas, and gentle slopes, is simulated in SWAT catchment characteristics to calculate with the use of the Modified Universal Soil hydrological and erosion processes. The model Loss Equation (MUSLE)31 (Williams 1995). The sets up the baseline for sediment and hydrological use of SWAT was preferred over other available flows (see Integrated Model, Figure 1). open-source tools as it has more process-based 30 https://swat.tamu.edu/. Version used: SWAT 2012, rev. 681 from 2020. https://bitbucket.org/blacklandgrasslandmodels/swat _development/src/master/. 31 https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/universal-soil-loss-equation. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 9 algorithms about erosion and in-stream sediment RUSLE32) approach used in other models (that transport, and it has hydrology interlinked. The is, in Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services MUSLE approach considers surface runoff, such and Tradeoffs [InVEST]33). SWAT also allows for as snowmelt and glacier melt, as the main erosive estimating changes in soil erosion associated with force, instead of rainfall as for the original Universal/ landscape restoration interventions and land use Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE/ change overall. Figure 1: Workflow to Evaluate Landscape Restoration Interventions and to Quantify and Value Their Impacts ECONOMIC VALUATION SWAT MODELING Defining valuation scenarios Spatial Data Catchment Data Management and Land Suitability Information ▪ Promising landscape restoration (R) ▪ Open Street Map ▪ Soil interventions ▪ Grazing ▪ Sentinel Images ▪ Elevation & Slope ▪ Feasbible locations for up-scaling (LR) Information ▪ C3S Global Landcover ▪ Daily Precipitation interventions ▪ Woodlots locations ▪ Slope ▪ Daily minimum ▪ Identification and selection of ecosystem ▪ Orchards locations service impacts to be valued Temperature Land Cover Classification ▪ Daily maximum Temperature Evaluation of ESS impacts from Random Forest ViGrA landscape restoration activities Intervention Maps Provisioning ESS Regulating ESS Land Cover Map ▪ Intervention Maps ▪ Grazing ▪ Fruits ▪ Carbon GIS Algorithms ▪ Woodlots ▪ Nuts sequestration ▪ Orchards ▪ Timber ▪ Fuelwood + ▪ Combined Interventions ▪ Forage biomass ▪ Water fluxes, ▪ Other crops erosion control and sediment inputs from SWAT model Calibration and Validation of Data Economic analysis and valuation of ESS flows Integrated Model ▪ Discharge Data ▪ Snow Persistence SWAT, Landslide, Gully ▪ Complementary data collection and Screes Models from MODIS ▪ Financial cashflows of on-site benefits ▪ Suspended Sediment ▪ Valuation of enhanced reservoir storage Observations ▪ Valuation of carbon mitigation ▪ Nurek Sedimentation Spatially explicit changes in biophysical outcomes On-site and society-wide net-benefits ▪ Water fluxes ▪ Sheet and Rill Erosion ▪ On-site local benefits: per hectare increases ▪ Channel Erosion and Sedimentation in net incomes and payoff periods to land users ▪ Landslides ▪ Gully Erosion ▪ Society-wide benefits: NPV and benefit cost ratios of the LR investments ▪ Screes ▪ Recommendations and policy implications ▪ Sediment Inputs to Nurek and Rogun Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: C3 = Copernicus Climate Change Service; GIS = Geographic information system; NPV = Net present value; ViGrA = Vision with Generic Algorithms. 32 33 32 https://www.ars.usda.gov/midwest-area/west-lafayette-in/national-soil-erosion-research/docs/rusle/. 33 https://naturalcapitalproject.stanford.edu/software/invest. 10 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS SWAT/MUSLE is not capable of simulating processes and then, finally, the amount of erosion processes such as landslides, gullies, sediment reaching the largest and most upstream and screes (this is also the case for InVEST/ dam along the Vakhsh River, the Rogun Dam. The RUSLE). Therefore, separate models, which all linked model can be used to simulate the baseline use the same input data as SWAT, were developed conditions and scenario interventions. A brief and implemented in the Python programming description of how each of the erosion processes— language. The models supply the location and sheet and rill, gully, and scree—are modelled, and spatial sediment delivery to the SWAT stream how the four erosion processes affect sediment network for the different erosion types. SWAT’s transport in river and fluvial erosion, is detailed in stream sediment routing algorithms are used Annex 1, including details on models, processes, to calculate the in-stream sediment transport and assumptions. Figure 2: Implemented Model Approach Landslide Gully Screes Model Model Model Soil, DEM, land use, climate Soil, DEM, land use Soil, DEM, land use DEM Spatio-temporal soil moisture distribution Spatio-temporal surface runoff Sheet, rill and gully Sediment delivery Sediment delivery Sediment delivery erosion to streams In-stream erosion and sedimentation Sediment delivery Source: Original elaboration for this publication. to Nurek/Roghun dam Note: DEM = Digital Elevation Model. Erosion from gullies is considered a significant and Mhammdi (2018) who found that barren and sediment source in the Vakhsh (Sidle et al. sparse vegetation with slope gradients above 50 2019), but SWAT is not capable of simulating percent were very susceptible to gully erosion. the gully erosion process. Therefore, a gully The SWAT computational units that match these erosion model was implemented that is based conditions are selected as prone to gully erosion. on Allen et al. (2017). To calculate sediment input The gully model is linked to SWAT, and surface into the streams from gullies in this study, the runoff calculated at each hydrological response locations of gullies are estimated according to a unit drives gully headcut advancement. simple relationship developed by Meliho, Khattabi, CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 11 A landslide model was implemented into the within the connected landslide are then evaluated integrated model since SWAT does not supply if they fail under certain soil moisture conditions— landslide simulations. The approach used for the ‘threshold moisture’, which is obtained from the application in the Vakhsh is based on World the SWAT model. For each landslide object, Bank (2019) and Wu and Sidle (1995), which the runout length is calculated and the part of describe a model of connected hillslope stability sediment reaching the streams (the delivery ratio) in detail. The models use typical equations that is calculated. are often used to assess hillslope stability and The SWAT model is also used to simulate are considered well suited to depict landslide processes in the Vakhsh. The model calculates the changes in the hydrological cycle. Landscape landslide processes on a 30 m by 30 m grid. First, restoration and the associated regeneration of soil soil properties and slope are used to find cells health affect surface runoff, groundwater aquifer that can potentially reach failure and therefore recharge, and lateral return flow to rivers. The can trigger a landslide. These cells are further schematic representation of the hydrologic cycle processed by grouping those to landslide objects within the SWAT model is illustrated in Figure 3 according to their spatial connection. All cells following Neitsch et al. (2011). Figure 3: Schematic Representation of the Hydrologic Cycle in the SWAT Model Source: Neitsch et al. 2011. 12 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS 2.3 IDENTIFICATION OF LANDSCAPE The identified interventions include forest RESTORATION INTERVENTIONS landscape restoration, through the use of orchards and woodlots, and sustainable pasture Practical and promising landscape restoration management, through the use of rotational interventions were defined in consultation grazing. To find suitable areas for the landscape with local stakeholders and nongovernmental restoration interventions within the Vakhsh organizations (NGOs) and based on earlier experiences of the World Bank. The engagement River Basin and ecosystem service benefits, the of various stakeholders was paramount to the assessment drew on basic land zoning regulations study’s success. The list of the stakeholders that and natural and technical constraints, such as helped with data acquisition, thereby making this distance to roads for irrigation, elevation, and land study possible, and the list of the stakeholders cover classification. These decisions were informed consulted for the CBA are provided in Annex 3. by satellite imagery, literature, and key informant interviews. Furthermore, data were collected, and Feasible locations for these landscape assumptions were tested and confirmed based restoration interventions were also shown on a field study in the municipality of Tojikobod, a based on physical land use criteria (elevation region with all significant land uses—range, forest, level, distance to roads, and land use classification), and croplands within the Vakhsh catchment—and as shown in Table A2.2 in Annex 2. Data for key vulnerable to land degradation disaster risks, such parameters, such as biomass productivity and as landslides and gully erosion. On this basis, three suitable tree species, were also collected. The distinct restoration scenarios were elaborated. baseline and future (with landscape restoration) land use maps, and biophysical data were then A fourth scenario, which combined a mosaic used—see dotted line in Figure 1—to inform the of all three restoration intervention scenarios, Integrated Model and estimate how landscape covering 1 million ha of land within the Vakhsh restoration affects soil erosion and hydrological catchment (which presents an area of 3,125,291 flows. ha), was also conceived. Discussions with relevant stakeholders, including farmers in Tojikobod and The consultation process also included the restoration practitioners, such as Caritas field identification of the ecosystem service most staff, were also used to identify the most relevant likely affected by these interventions and an benefits provided by the respective landscape estimate of the intervention costs. Numerous restoration options. organizations, NGOs, development finance institutions (DFIs), and government departments The data were then fed into a comprehensive are working to combat land degradation and CBA and ecosystem services valuation. More improve rural livelihoods in Tajikistan. The activities, details on the criteria used to define suitable sustained by these efforts, supplied an insight locations for the three proposed interventions and into unique landscape restoration interventions for the mosaic scenario are presented in Chapter 3. that stand out in terms of their feasibility for upscaling from the perspective of their ability to 2.4 CBA AND ECOSYSTEM SERVICES VALUATION generate income for rural communities, enhance disaster risks, and reduce erosion processes. The This section describes the methodology for identification of these restoration options served undertaking the CBA and how benefits and costs as a starting point for the assessment. are retrieved to calculate on-site provisioning CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 13 and regulating ecosystem services resulting Evaluation of potential impacts of landscape from the landscape restoration interventions. restoration activities. The impacts of activities The study employs a mixture of valuation on ecosystem services were evaluated using methodologies to assess ecosystem service net the SWAT model for simulating erosion and benefits for each intervention, including avoided hydrological processes. Individual effects on sheet, damage and replacement, as well as opportunity rill, scree, and gully erosion and landslides were and market costs. Where possible, prices are assessed for each type of landscape restoration obtained from actual local markets to ensure that process. Carbon sequestration was evaluated the financial cash flows of the orchard, woodlot, using the EX-Ante Carbon-balance Tool (EX-ACT) and rotational grazing enterprises are grounded of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of in realistic assumptions reflecting what can be the United Nations, while the production of timber earned. and fuelwood, fruits, and nuts, under orchards and woodlot establishments, and forage, under the Opportunity costs were considered for each rotational grazing scheme, was evaluated through intervention, considering how the land is used interviews with practitioners, farmers, and experts under business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and in forest and rangeland management. the value of the BAU alternative. It was not possible however to account for the value of all the The economic value to local and society- possible uses of land in the BAU—especially since wide beneficiaries. A combination of valuation earth observations supply broad land use classes methodologies, including market price, avoided (scrubland, herbaceous cover, mosaic cropland, costs, opportunity costs, and productivity change mosaic natural vegetation, and so on). approaches were used to value changes to provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. In parallel, extensive data were collected to As stated, critical data inputs were obtained from inform the cash flow and financial feasibility practitioners, literature reviews, and consultation of the landscape restoration interventions with local farmers and pasture users, and visits to and the carbon sequestration potential of the the local farmer market supplied up-to-date farm interventions. Changes in ecosystem service gate market prices. flows were finally used in the CBA to translate biophysical changes to monetary private and The cost of implementing and managing the societal net benefits. The full flow of provisioning individual landscape restoration interventions ecosystem service benefits to land users and was also carefully noted. Yields, prices, and input regulating ecosystem service benefits to society costs were fed into detailed 20- and 30-year were then merged in a comprehensive CBA. financial cash flows for each landscape restoration intervention. The results (expected increases in Ecosystem service valuation was performed per-hectare incomes) were further confirmed with based on the CBA over a 30-year time horizon, on-ground actors. The total flow of provisioning 2022–2052, to demonstrate the economic case ecosystem service benefits to land users and for landscape restoration intervention and show regulating ecosystem service benefits to society how local land users and the wider society are then merged in a comprehensive CBA, and the stand to benefit from the landscape restoration results are reported in Chapter 3. interventions, in terms of improved livelihoods, regeneration of soils, enhanced land productivity, The flow of benefits and costs from landscape and sediment reduction. restoration was assessed over a 30-year time 14 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS horizon for all interventions and ecosystem The target beneficiaries for the restoration service impacts considered to prioritize interventions are (a) the rural communities that the interventions. 34 Net benefits to these depend on land use activities for their income stakeholders are presented first, followed by (including individual, family, or collective Dekhan an insight into the broader societal benefits farmers—growing crops and managing livestock— generated from landscape restoration as a source state forest enterprises or pasture users unions of green infrastructure. The economic assessment (PUUs), forest user groups (FUGs), and groups of the provisioning ecosystem services focuses of farmers that form common interest groups); on changes in per hectare net incomes following (b) the population within the Vakhsh River the adoption of sustainable range and forest Basin living upstream and downstream of Rogun; landscape management, independent of who manages or owns the land. (c) the hydropower and irrigation sectors, including dams, reservoirs, and power stations Maximum overall erosion and sediment located along the Vakhsh River, and the irrigation reduction are achieved under a mosaic network directly feeding from the reservoirs; (d) landscape restoration scenario covering 1 million ha of land within the Vakhsh catchment. the Tajikistan society; and the (e) regional and Considering the importance of woodlots in global community as a whole, benefitting from reducing erosion, especially on steep hills, a higher improved water security, erosion control, and sediment reduction could be achieved if suitable climate change mitigation. The beneficiaries and rangeland sites were subject to reforestation. valuation approaches are presented in Table 1. Table 1: Ecosystem Benefits, Main Beneficiaries, and Valuation Approaches Objective Beneficiary Valuation approach Land user benefits - Local land users (FUGs, forest state Productivity change and market prices woodlots enterprises, and rural communities) Local land users (Individual and Dekhan Land user benefits - Productivity change, market prices, and opportunity farmers, common interest groups, and orchards costs rural communities more broadly) Land user benefits - Productivity change, market prices, and avoided forage Pasture users and PUUs pastureland purchase cost (a) Value of enhanced storage capacity when used for Nurek and Rogun HPPs, Government irrigation Erosion of Tajikistan (b) Avoided water storage recovery cost (c) Avoided dredging cost. Enhanced water Farmers, common interest groups, and Shadow price of water using the full economic cost of balance broader Tajikistan society water (a) Land users and rural communities (a) Voluntary market prices (voluntary carbon market) Enhanced carbon sequestration (b) Avoided damage cost, using the social cost of (b) Global carbon (SCC, 2022–2052 pricing) Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 34 34 Using a 6% discount rate. Interventions included a combination of orchard establishments, woodlot restorations, and rotational grazing throughout the study area. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 15 With a total population of 530,000 living within Parameters Used for the CBA the Vakhsh River Basin, it is expected that Time period. The period used in the economic landscape restoration will directly benefit analysis of projects should reflect reasonable at least 265,000 people within the Vakhsh estimates of the full duration of costs and catchment (GDL 2022). Data from the Yovon benefits associated with the project. Joint forest district of 40,355 ha in the Vakhsh River Basin management (JFM) lease contracts, and typical suggest that the average farm size is 5.2 ha rotation lengths for woodlots and orchards, are (ADB 2021b). However, the landscape restoration usually 20 years. However, as highlighted in interventions considered in this study fall outside Fernández-Moya et al. (2019), mixed tree-farming the classical boundaries of individual farms, plantations in Italy, France, and North America use including state-owned forests and rangeland. very short rotations of 5–7 years when they are Since available maps and earth observations optimized for firewood production; short rotations do not allow for inferring who owns or manages of 8–12 years for peeler logs production, and the land under consideration, the CBA analysis medium-long rotation of 20–30 years for veneer changes in per hectare net incomes following production (for example, walnut and other the adoption of sustainable range and forest valuable broadleaved species). It is also realistic landscape management, independent of who to assume that woodlots and orchards can be manages or owns the land. subject to 30-year rotations. Using a time horizon of 30 years is considered a good compromise The study’s models and economic analysis also between capturing the main benefits of landscape did not include the impacts of soil erosion and restoration and minimizing uncertainties (climate sedimentation on water quality. While the study change, prices, and so on) introduced over more focused on water quantity about the effects of extended times. soil erosion and land degradation on hydrological Discount rate. A social discount rate was used flows, it recognizes the importance of including to calculate the NPV of the landscape restoration this aspect in future work, especially with and catchment management intervention escalating climate changes. The rationale for scenarios, according to standard World Bank focusing on water flow and not water quality lies practices (World Bank 2016). 35 Within World in the fact that only a limited number of factors Bank client countries, per capita growth has could be included in the sediment, hydrological, averaged 3 percent per year, which yields a social and economic models. Therefore, the ecosystem discount rate of 6 percent, assuming an elasticity service valuations were prioritized according of marginal utility of consumption of two (World to scope work and consultations. The details of Bank 2016). At the same time, Tajikistan’s GDP per the parameters used for the CBA, including the capita growth has averaged 4 percent since 2015 36 time horizon, the discount rate, and the sensitivity (ranging from 2.1 percent in 2020 to 5 percent analysis, and of the valuation of enhanced land in 2018). In 2023, Tajikistan’s economic growth use productivity are presented below. is expected to decelerate to 5 percent as the 35 It is assumed that the marginal value of an additional dollar of net benefits is smaller when the recipients of those benefits are richer (the Ramsey formula is used). Therefore, if growth is expected to be positive over the life of the project, future benefits should be valued less than those that occur in the present when recipients are less well-off. With an elasticity of marginal utility of consumption of between 1 and 2, if a beneficiary is x percent richer, the marginal value of an additional dollar of benefits is lower by between x percent and 2x percent. Similarly, if per capita growth is expected to be percent over the life of the project, the annual discount rate should be between percent and 2 percent per year. 36 https://www.adb.org/countries/tajikistan/economy. 16 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS 2022 positive shock subsides and remittance lower-bound estimates of the financial return of inflows diminish, which is expected to result in the individual interventions are also estimated, a contraction in private consumption (World assuming a pessimistic scenario with lower-than- Bank 2023c). A 6 percent social discount rate is anticipated yields and an excessive cost of capital therefore considered reasonable. (20 percent), as well as an optimistic scenario, considering lower implementation costs (ICs) and Sensitivity analysis. For the sensitivity analysis, management costs (MCs) (from economies of the descriptive approach to setting the interest scale) and a minimal fee of capital (3 percent). rate is also used. It considers the opportunity cost of drawing funds from the real economy using the Valuation of enhanced land use productivity. real interest rate (the nominal lending rate adjusted The benefit of the implementation of the integrated for inflation). Tajikistan’s real interest rate has (landscape restoration) scenario is valued hovered around 20 percent since 2015 (World Bank concerning the expected increase in forage, 2022b). The descriptive approach needs to capture wood, fruit, and nut production (Q) over and specific policy goals (for example, eradication of above the BAU scenario without the interventions. poverty or climate change adaptation). Still, the The ICs and MCs are also deducted to estimate real interest rate remains a good indicator of the the change in per hectare net incomes for every possible reality that landowners face if they look to year over a 30-year time horizon, according to raise capital to finance the landscape restoration Equation 137. The flow of net benefits is discounted activities analyzed here. The sensitivity analysis into NPV terms, using r, the social discount rate of also incorporates a 3 percent discount rate to 6 percent, and 20 percent for sensitivity analysis. reflect the cost of capital, where landowners benefit Net present value from philanthropic grants, official development assistance grants, or ‘below-market-rate  return’ impact investments. Additionally, upper- and 37 37 It is assumed that the share of output of orchard, woodlot produce and pasture produce, is not sufficiently big to affect market prices via equilibrium effects. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 17 3. ANALYSIS AND FINDINGS 3.1 BASELINE CONDITIONS catchment’s geologic, geomorphic, and surface conditions. The drainage area upstream The first step consisted of assessing the of the Nurek HPP estimated at the Vakhsh River baseline information for the study area, the gauging station (no longer operational) at Tutkaul Vakhsh River Basin. This included a catchment Kishlak is 31,200 km2 (Figure 4). Because of the characterization, to gather and evaluate narrow contributing area between Nurek Dam and the characteristics of the catchment area; a the Rogun HPP, the catchment area upstream of geochemical tracing, to assess the sediment Rogun reduces by less than 1,000 km2—to about sources entering the hydropower reservoirs along 30,390 km2. The total drainage area of the Vakhsh the Vakhsh River; and a review of the possible River is 39,160 km2 , of which 79.8 percent is in impacts of climate change on the Vakhsh River Tajikistan and 20.2 percent in the Kyrgyz Republic. Basin. The results from these activities are Approximately 30 percent of this drainage area is presented below. above 4,000 m.a.s.l. and has thousands of glaciers, 3.1.1 Catchment Characterization most of which are in the eastern part of the basin. The largest glacier is the 72 km long Fedchenko The analysis and characteristics of the Glacier, with elevations ranging from 2,900 m at catchment area have been provided by the the base to 5,400 m at the summit (Lambrecht Mountain Societies Research Institute from et al. 2014). Over a recent period of 80 years, the the University of Central Asia (UCA). The Fedchenko Glacier lost approximately 3 percent of study included field data collection of sediment its ice mass, a trend clear in many of the smaller samples from the Vakhsh River Basin and glaciers in Tajikistan (Lambrecht et al. 2014). tributaries, an assessment of suspended sediment concentrations in collected water samples, and the The timing of water and sediment releases from combined use of field investigations and remote these glaciers affects downstream sediment sensing methods to assess how geomorphology transport. Increasing flows in the main tributaries and land use of the catchment may affect sediment of the Vakhsh River (Surkhob and Obikhingou supplies and transport. What follows is an extract Rivers) have been measured since the late 1980s from the study ‘Catchment characterization in the (Normatov, Markaev, and Normatov 2017). These Vakhsh River Basin Upstream of Nurek Reservoir, trends reflect climate warming cycles and are Tajikistan’ (UCA 2022). expected to change in the future when tipping points are reached—that is, when glacier melt Topography declines as the ice mass disappears and glaciers To understand the environmental conditions become disconnected from receiving streams and contributing to sediment transport from the river systems. Given the high elevation of much landscape to the Nurek and Rogun hydropower of this basin, snow accumulation and melting reservoirs, it is essential to examine the also play significant roles in runoff and sediment 18 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS transport. Snow cover and water content northwest of the Fedchenko Glacier); Lenin Peak throughout much of mountainous Tajikistan are (7,134 m.a.s.l.) in the far eastern portion of the reported to be highly variable from year to year, basin; and Korzhenevskaya Peak (7,105 m.a.s.l.) with little insight into predictable patterns. located about 13 km north of Ismoil Somoni Peak. All these peaks and surrounding high mountains Within the Vakhsh River Basin, three iconic are associated with extensive glacial processes peaks above 7,000 m exist: Ismoil Somoni Peak that contribute seasonal runoff and sediment (7,495 m.a.s.l.) in southeastern Tajikistan in the to tributaries of the Vakhsh River. While there Academy of Sciences Range, part of the northern are many glaciers, most are smaller than the fringe of the Pamirs (located about 40 km Fedchenko Glacier. Figure 4: The Vakhsh Catchment Topography and Current HPPs Source: Original elaboration for this publication. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 19 Hydrology Climate Tajikistan has abundant freshwater resources The Pamirs–Tien Shan also occupies the in its rivers, lakes, and glaciers, with an crossroads of Central Asia’s most influential annual carbon sequestration of 7,649 m per 3 climate systems: the Westerlies and the capita (ADB 2021b). The Vakhsh River Basin, Monsoon. Along with the Tibetan Plateau, these the northeast tributary of the Amu Darya River, ranges are orographic barriers that shield and drains most of eastern and southern Tajikistan. It thus keep the continental-interior deserts. The contributes about 29 percent of the total flow of topographic evolution of the Pamir-Tibet plateau, the Amu Darya. The Vakhsh catchment is situated the development of orographic barriers, ice-sheet between 37.10° and 39.74° N and 68.31° and evolutions, and land-bridge and sea-surface 73.70° E and has a total length of 524 km with a temperature changes have been attributed to the drainage area of about 39,008 km . The elevation 2 poorly understood pattern of intensification and in the basin ranges from 302 to 7,050 m.a.s.l. reduction of the Westerlies and the Monsoon in The temperature decreases with the increase in many studies of Central Asia (Chen et al. 2008). height, while precipitation has different patterns The seasonal monsoon climate has been in at different altitudes and aspects. A significant southern Asia for the last 12.8 million years increase in the annual average temperature by (Quade, Cerling, and Bowman 1989). In the the end of the twenty-first century is projected early to middle Holocene, the northeastern Pamir (Gulakhmadov et al. 2020), ranging from 2.25 to Plateau was characterized by moister conditions 4.40°C under RCP4.5 and a decreasing tendency (Heinecke et al. 2017). However, in contrast to of annual average precipitation (from -1.7 percent the Himalayas, most of the precipitation in the to -16.0 percent under RCP4.5 38). northern Pamirs falls in winter and spring. This The Vakhsh River flows through a narrow valley, precipitation is provided by the Westerlies (Pohl in places turning into impassable gorges 8–10 et al. 2015). According to the global scale analysis, m wide, and in some areas, it expands up to Westerlies’ location depends on the position of 1.5 km (Gulakhmadov et al. 2020). Hydropower the Siberian anticyclonic circulation (Aizen 2011). supplies 99 percent of Tajikistan’s electricity, Such dependence can block the humid western and 90 percent comes from eight hydropower air masses and can cause aridity in Central Asia. dams on the Vakhsh River. Irrigation withdrawals Therefore, precipitation decreases from west to are about 85 percent of the national water east, and present-day rainfall is highly seasonal. resource use (ADB 2021a). Millions of people in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Sediment Transport the Kyrgyz Republic depend on the freshwater The Vakhsh River has the highest suspended supply from the Vakhsh River system. The total sediment load of any river in Tajikistan, and it annual flow of the Vakhsh River is 20.22 km 3 per transports large amounts of sediment to the year, and the area of irrigated land in this river lowlands, where coarser sediments mostly system is about 172,200 ha (ICWC 2019). deposit in the Nurek Reservoir affecting its water holding capacity. According to Glantz (2005), the height of sand accumulation in the 38 From 4.40 to 6.60°C under RCP8.5 and reduced precipitation from -3.4 percent to -29.8 percent under RCP8.5. 20 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Nurek Reservoir reaches up to 50 m. suspended sediment concentration downstream of the Nurek Dam. The assessment of suspended sediment concentrations in collected water samples Overall, suspended sediment concentrations indicates that the highest concentrations of decline from the upper portion of the basin to sediment in the river water occur in August. the lowlands, likely due to sedimentation in the This month is the driest but not the warmest in gentler reaches of the river. The water samples the season, and it correlates with the highest collected below the Nurek Dam had algae, which river water discharge (July–August) fed by higher affected the results. Likely, the algae live in the elevation snow and glacier melt. Most sediments still waters of the Nurek. Figures 5–7 present larger than 2 m appear to accumulate in the Nurek an overview of the erosion processes along the Reservoir as shown by the sharp decrease in Vakhsh River. Figure 5: Streambank Erosion along a Vakhsh River Tributary Transporting High Sediment Load, Following a Low-Intensity Storm Source: UCA. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 21 Figure 6: Active Rockfall Contributing Substantial Amounts of Coarse Sediment to a Vakhsh River Tributary Source: UCA. Figure 7: Agricultural Influences on Sediment in the Catchment Source: UCA. Panel a - heavy grazing pressures contributing to streambank erosion. Panel b - gully initiation and headcutting. Panel c - cultivated lands in silty soils that have instigated gullies; these gullies now connect to the fluvial system efficiently delivering sediment. 22 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS 3.1.2 The Impacts of Climate Change temperatures is expected, ranging from 2.25 Presented below is an overview of the potential to 4.40°C under RCP4.5 and 4.40 to 6.60°C impacts of climate change on the country and, under RCP8.5 (Gulakhmadov et al. 2020). The in particular, the Vakhsh River Basin that were probability of heatwave conditions (a period of 3 identified and assessed as part of this study. or more days where the daily temperature is above The proposed landscape restoration interventions the long-term 95th percentile of the daily mean aim at providing a means of adaptation for these temperature) is projected to increase dramatically under all emissions pathways, reaching 7–23 identified climate challenges. percent by the 2090s. This is primarily a result of Due to political, geographic, and social continued rising of temperatures, which shifts the factors, Tajikistan is recognized as vulnerable average ambient temperature away from that of to climate change impacts, ranked 100 out the baseline period (1986–2005) and increases the of 182 countries in the 2020 ND-GAIN Index. 39 likelihood of heatwaves (World Bank 2021). The ND-GAIN Index ranks 182 countries using By the end of the century, glacier mass loss a score that calculates their vulnerability to is projected at 50–70 percent over the Central climate change and other global challenges Asian region, dependent on the emissions and their readiness to improve resilience. The pathway. By comparison, in the middle of more vulnerable a country is, the lower its ND- the twentieth century, around 6 percent of GAIN score, while the more ready a country is to Tajikistan’s surface area was covered by strengthen its resilience, the higher its ND-GAIN glaciers. By the early twenty-first century, this score (World Bank 2021). was believed to have declined to 5 percent. The Tajikistan is projected to experience ongoing melting of glaciers is already delivering temperature rises significantly above the slightly increased runoff (typically less than 10 global average. Under the highest emissions percent) in many of Tajikistan’s rivers. However, pathway (RCP8.5), warming could reach 5.5°C large uncertainty in precipitation and snowfall by the 2090s, compared with the 1986–2005 projections surrounds future runoff trends. baseline. Warming trends are projected to (World Bank 2021). Qualitatively, based on higher lead to even stronger maximum and minimum intensity rainfall and the respective erosion, temperatures, which could set back human the projected climate change scenarios on the livelihoods and ecosystems. There is a high streamflow point to an increasing tendency of likelihood that temperatures in Tajikistan will more average annual streamflow and high-flow events regularly surpass 40°C, particularly in lowland (Kure et al. 2013). regions. This will increase risks to human health Between 1940 and 2012, there has been an and the severity of the consequences. Increased increase in the average annual precipitation temperatures, paired with higher likelihoods for by 5–10 percent , as highlighted in Tajikistan’s aridity and drought incidence, are likely to expand Third National Communication to the UNFCCC, arid lands in some regions, and consequently submitted in 2014. However, this increase is reduce agricultural yields (World Bank 2021). associated with higher intensity of extreme By the end of the twenty-first century, precipitation events, and in some areas, the a significant increase in average annual frequency of days with precipitation has declined. 39 University of Notre Dame (2020). Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative. https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/ CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 23 This has led to some recent arid years: notably heat and drought, may result in severe economic 2000, 2001, and 2008 when rainfall was 30–50 loss and damage in Tajikistan (World Bank 2021). percent below average. One study finds a general Up to 36 percent of Tajikistan’s land area may drying trend over Central Asia’s arid regions be at risk of landslides, and climate changes linked strongly to El Niño-Southern Oscillation are projected to compound this risk. A similar trends (Hu et al. 2019). Climate data (over 60–80 proportion of the nation faces a substantial risk years) from three stations within the Vakhsh River of mudflows, which is also projected to increase Basin show highly variable patterns of average because of land degradation and climate change. annual temperature, with very weak increasing By 2035–2044, the number of people annually trends. Yearly precipitation is also highly variable, affected by an extreme river flood is projected to with growing trends in the catchment drained by increase by around 6,000–7,000. By comparison, the Kyzylsu River; the other catchments showed as of 2010, assuming protection target for up no significant trends (Normatov, Markaev, and to a 1-in-25-year event, the population annually Normatov 2017). affected by river flooding in Tajikistan is Eventually, the continuous decrease in the estimated at 20,000 people, and the expected country’s mountain glaciers is going to reduce annual impact on GDP at US$39 million (World the regularity and volume of water flows and Bank 2021). may affect the energy, agriculture, and water Issues such as the projected increase in the sectors. One study has suggested that the erosive capacity of rain, and its impact on soil increase in runoff due to accelerated melting quality, will increase the pressure on essential could peak by around 2040. As smaller glaciers ecosystem functions. These changes, in disappear entirely, the runoff of smaller tributary combination with issues such as glacial melt and rivers can fall dramatically. The cumulative effects drought, will result in significant shifts in species’ of glacier loss are likely to grow over the longer- viable ranges (both in natural ecosystems and for term future, dependent on global emissions agricultural purposes) (World Bank 2021). reductions, potentially leading to significant declines in the runoff (World Bank 2021). By about 3.1.3 Geochemical Tracing 2060, it is expected that increasing temperatures To complement this study, Griffith University and associated further retreating of the snowline from Australia conducted a parallel study, and loss of glacial mass will start affecting water ‘Sediment tracing in the Vakhsh River Basin storage and hydropower generation (Kure et al. Upstream of Nurek Reservoir, Tajikistan’. 2013). This is critical, as in 2015, only 74 percent The resulting report describes a geochemical of Tajikistan’s population was estimated to have investigation into sediments of the Surkhob access to at least a basic level of water supply and Obikhingob sub-catchments of the Vakhsh (World Bank 2021). River (Griffith University 2022). What follows are Simultaneous flooding issues and associated essential extracts from that study. hazards such as landslides and mudslides This research consisted of a pilot study based are also expected to intensify, affecting lives on 37 samples from the Vakhsh catchment and livelihoods. Without adaptation efforts analyzed for geochemistry and particle size. and disaster risk reduction preparedness and Mixing modeling was undertaken to decide planning, climate change’s effects, particularly the proportional contributions of tributaries at 24 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS key junctions. Each sample was analyzed for mixing modeling. The collected samples also had 52 elements (Figure 8). Site-to-site variation consistent particle sizes, with no spatial patterns in elemental concentrations was found to be or basic relationships seen. surprisingly consistent, complicating the un- Figure 8: Map of the Study Area Showing Sampling Locations Source: Original elaboration for this publication. The most notable finding was that the Surkhob landslides (both shallow and deep), debris catchment is contributing 65 percent of the flows that directly enter channels, and gully deposited bedload of the Vakhsh River, with erosion. The latter (gully erosion) consists of the Obikhingob contributing the remaining 35 very deep features (sometimes greater than 100 percent. Elsewhere it was found that the Upper m deep) in which mass wasting along the flanks Surkhob catchment is dominated by sediments contributes far more sediment than surface originating in the MS1 sub-catchment, consistent erosion processes. with the MS1 catchment having the more significant Other findings include the remarkable proportion of its catchment glaciated. consistency in elemental ratios across By far, the dominant sources of sediment to tributary junctions in general, resulting in tributaries and the main stem of the Vakhsh poor discriminatory power regarding the River are derived from mass wasting, including identification of sediment sources. This CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 25 unfortunate occurrence has hampered the (2015) for a small catchment in Faizabad district; attempt to trace the sources of sediments however, it must be noted that efforts should be with any spatial precision. One group of small made to gain knowledge on the sediment sources sub-catchments did have distinct vanadium, so that such modeling efforts could be verified in titanium, and chromium assemblages as a the future. function of them being almost wholly within a singular geological unit (the Cretaceous), with this enabling discrimination of them as Figure 9: Sediment Balance a group from sediments collected in the main (2012–2021) Upstream of Rogun from channel. However, these four sub-catchments Different Erosion Types represented just 1 percent of the total catchment area; hence, no influence of these catchments could be detected downstream. 2% Finally, it was found that some elemental concentrations change with downstream patterns. No mechanism for this is clear; however, 37% examination of these patterns may supply an 37% alternative approach for future tracing. 3.1.4 Sediment Budget The SWAT model was first used to set up the 3% baseline for sediment flows for the Vakhsh 21% River Basin, as presented below. Then, the integrated sediment and hydraulic model was used to estimate the benefits resulting from landscape restoration interventions, as described Gully Channel SheetRill Landslide Screes in the following sections. Source: Original elaboration for this publication. The sediment that enters the stream network from the different inputs is deposited or transported further downstream. Once the Channel erosion and screes show the lowest sediment has entered the channel, it is not variability and remain relatively constant over possible to trace the sources in SWAT. Therefore, the years, while landslides and gully erosion the sediment budget is set up based on the show the highest variability, as shown in Table assumption that the share between the different 2. The total loads per year vary between 65 and erosion types stays constant within the in-stream 120 million tons. This shows that climate variability phase. Figure 9 illustrates the long-term average sediment budget simulated from the various significantly affects sediment processes. Average sources. Unfortunately, little information exists sediment load upstream of Rogun Reservoir over to verify these results. The amounts of sheet and the 10 years is 92.7 million tons per year, which rill erosion (13 percent) and of gullies (35 percent) matches well with the observations summarized generally agree with the estimate of Safarov et al. by HRW (2015) for Nurek. 26 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Table 2: Annual Contribution of Sediment for the Different Erosion Types Upstream of Rogun (million tons per year) Year Sheet and Rill Landslide Screes Gully Channel Mosaic 2012 21.3 69.5 3.4 35.3 3.5 131.7 2013 14.4 28.8 1.4 23.5 2.6 70.7 2014 23.0 30.1 1.6 43.0 2.4 99.7 2015 28.7 41.2 2.3 44.0 2.8 118.7 2016 20.3 33.3 1.8 38.7 2.6 96.3 2017 16.5 26.9 1.5 34.9 2.2 81.8 2018 14.9 22.3 1.2 28.7 1.9 68.8 2019 23.9 45.2 2.5 37.5 2.5 111.2 2020 16.6 25.9 1.4 28.7 2.0 74.4 2021 14.6 21.2 1.1 32.6 1.3 70.6 Average 19.4 34.4 1.8 34.7 2.4 92.4 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: The values for 2021 are simulated only until July 31 and are extrapolated linearly to the full year. The highest erosion inputs occur along the the catchment are mostly covered by snow and middle reaches of the Surhob and Oblhingou, ice and therefore do not contribute significant as shown in Figure 10 that visualizes the 10-year amounts. After the confluence of both rivers, the average sediment transport along the Vakhsh Vakhsh has the highest sediment load which then River network that results from the input of all ends at the Rogun Dam. erosion types. The steepest and highest areas of Figure 10: Spatially Distributed Average Annual Sediment Transport in Vakhsh River and Tributaries 69o0’ 70o0’ 71o0’ 72o0’ 73o0’ Sediment Transport [1000 t/yr] 39o30’ 22 – 3290 3290 – 7013 Baseline 7013 – 14393 39o0’ 14393 – 25171 25171 – 31578 31578 – 46453 46453 – 53108 38o30’ 53108 – 67637 67637 – 97219 0 50 100 km Source: Original elaboration for this publication. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 27 3.2 IDENTIFICATION OF LANDSCAPE CBA presented in the following section. RESTORATION INTERVENTIONS 3.2.1 Context Assessment The sedimentation assessment from Griffith The agricultural sector employs 50 percent of University suggests there is no one single the labor force and contributes approximately dominant spatial source of sediment, 20 percent to GDP in Tajikistan (World Bank so landscape restoration efforts can be 2023c). Crop production, including cotton and implemented on any possible land use type wheat, accounts for approximately two-thirds within the Vakhsh catchment. Eventual of the total production value, and livestock decisions on the locations of these restoration husbandry accounts for another one-third (CIA interventions should therefore be based on other 2020). Livestock is also a strategic store of considerations such as social acceptability, wealth and can be sold in time of need. Moreover, enabling land governance arrangements, and manure is used for both fertilizer and heating access to finance. Most of these are factors that fuel (Philipona et al. 2019). Over the last decade, cannot be seen using ‘remote sensing’. there has been a noticeable increase in livestock For this reason, areas with restoration potential numbers. This is due to a combination of factors, were physically identified based on context including a decline in remittances from family assessment, review of existing initiatives, members working abroad, lack of trust in the discussions with local stakeholders, and formal banking sector and declining cropland land zoning regulations, as well as natural productivity, limited employment opportunities and technical constraints, such as required within rural areas, and weak markets for maximum distance to infrastructure, elevation, agricultural produce (Caritas 2020; Philopona et and land cover classifications. These decisions al. 2019). Tajikistan has a total of 3.8 million ha of were informed by satellite imagery; literature; pasturelands (World Bank 2020a), approximately and key interviews with country director for 868,000 ha of which are in the Vakhsh River Caritas-Tajikistan (Kassam 2022), the natural Basin (23 percent of the total). resource and disaster risk reduction specialist in Forests also play a key role in the lives of Tajikistan (Davlatov 2022b), and an International Tajikistan’s rural population (FAO 2007; Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD) Pilkington et al. 2020). Firewood, fodder, consultant engaged in the Livestock and Pasture medicinal plants, fruits, and nuts are an important Development Project in Kulob. Assumptions were source of income (GIZ 2019). Today, however, furthermore tested and confirmed based on a the country’s forest area only covers some 2–3 field study in the municipality of Tojikobod by percent of Tajikistan’s territory, against 16–18 Davlatbeg Davlatov (Davlatov 2022a). percent a century ago. The mountain ecosystems As a result, the most promising landscape of southern and southeastern Tajikistan were restoration interventions that can be scaled in the major regions for the conservation of wild- time and space within the Vakhsh catchment growing fruits (apples, pears, apricots, mulberries, were identified, presented below. Potentially cherry plums, and plums, among others), nuts suitable locations for these interventions were (walnuts and almonds), grapes, and berries also identified, along with an estimate of the most (World Bank 2012). Forests were cleared for affected ecosystem services and intervention agriculture and mining during the Soviet period. costs. The data are fed into the comprehensive Since 2000, the pace of forest degradation has 28 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS accelerated due to uncontrolled tree cutting and Degradation of mountain pastures, together increased livestock numbers (Thevs 2018) and a with deforestation and unsustainable spike in demand for fuelwood, after the fall of the agricultural land use management practices, Soviet Union. Unregulated transhumance and compromise livelihoods and increase the elevated levels of forest grazing are particularly vulnerability of rural communities to natural damaging to forest health (Mislimshoeva, hazards (Golubeva 2018; World Bank 2020a). Herbst, and Koellner 2016). These factors, Restoration and the sustainable management combined with unsustainable NTFP extraction, of crop, forest, and rangelands, on the other present significant challenges for the Tajikistan hand, can help mitigate climate change and forestry department. The ongoing decline in attenuate disaster risks by reducing the likelihood forest resources is seen in increased travel and intensity of expected hazards, via soil times to locations for fuelwood harvesting (FAO stabilization, reduced erosion, flood protection, 2007; Pilkington et al. 2020). For 70 percent of drought control while increasing the resilience of the population, fuelwood is the primary energy local communities (Harari, Gavilano, and Liniger source due to an inconsistent energy supply 2017; IPCC 2019; World Bank 2019). (World Bank 2018). 3.2.2 Existing Initiatives Land degradation is also affecting Tajikistan’s In the light of the problems of land degradation, pastures and cropland. The use of steep hillsides many organizations, NGOs, and DFIs, such to grow cereal crops, vertical plowing, and removal as the World Bank, the IFAD, and Caritas, of tree canopy on sloped croplands (Caritas 2019; are working to improve the situation. As World Bank 2012) has led to mudslides (ruining argued in the following, certain forest landscape villages, roads and farmland, irrigation, and water interventions, notably orchards and woodlots as systems), soil erosion, and silting of waterways well as sustainable rangeland management, stand used for drinking water and irrigation (World out in terms of their feasibility and suitability for Bank 2012). The rising livestock numbers place upscaling. increasing pressure on the already degraded pasturelands (Philipona et al. 2019). Degradation Woodlots are typically implemented using of summer and winter mountain pastures persists JFM contracts. These are contracts between (Jenet 2005). It is estimated that Tajikistan is local tenants and the local state forest enterprise losing about 2,243,166 tons of hay yearly due that grants the land use rights to the local forest to pasturelands degradation, for an estimated tenants over a leasing period of up to 20 years, value of US$109 million, equivalent to 1.5 percent with the possibility for prolongation (GIZ 2019). In of the country’s GDP (World Bank 2020a). For addition to the contract, management and annual alpine pastures in Muminabad, Jenet (2005) has plans serve as tools for forest management estimated that grazing areas produce dry matter planning and for the monitoring of activities (DM) of 500 kg per ha compared to a maximum and results (GIZ 2019). Between 2015 and 2019, of 1,600 kg per ha for winter pastures and 2,000 German investments, coordinated by Caritas kg per ha for summer pastures. In contrast, local with the state at the district-level authorities, pasture experts in World Bank (2020a) estimate covered close to 10,000 ha of public forest. The the total amount of hay that can be harvested 20-year lease agreements—between farmers from undegraded pastureland to be about 1,100 and state forest agencies—were part of a larger kg per ha per year. forest management plan and commodity-sharing CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 29 mechanism. The JFM enables the local population forests, and carry out measures that support to be involved in forest management and to support natural forest regeneration on 120,000 ha (Thevs the rehabilitation of degraded natural forests over 2018). the long term. The sustainability of this approach Ecosystem-based adaptation. With limited is grounded in active involvement of farm ministerial and district budgets to support households in forest protection, afforestation, and needed agricultural, environmental, and water- rehabilitation. There are also economic incentives related initiatives, there is a case for building for the state forest enterprises, in that these disaster risk resilience using ecosystem-based contracts reduced the need to undertake forest approaches (so-called ecosystem-based disaster management initiatives, and a negotiated share risk resilience [ECO-DRR]). Caritas’ experience is of the commodities produced (in the order of that willingness of communities to invest in ECO- 50 percent) are convertible through commercial DRR measures is still high. While for investments sales for cash for local and state budgets (Caritas in physical mitigation, infrastructure-leveraged 2020). The primary products produced and harvested include hay and fodder, fruits and nuts, community contributions are in the order of 20 firewood, and timber. Based on discussion among percent of the financing needed, for ECO-DRR experts of the consulting team (G. Petersen, J. measures, such as agroforestry plots and rotational Kiesel, and A. J. Van Schalkwyk), woodlots were grazing, community contributions can reach 45 also considered the most promising intervention, percent (in the Muminabad district between 2010 from the perspective of reducing gully erosion and 2026 42) (Caritas 2020). In a feasibility study and landslides. on the ecosystem-based adaptation methods for soil erosion control (Redmann and Mislimshoeva, For more than two decades, the World 2017), afforestation was also found to offer the Bank has actively supported forest greatest potential for upscaling, due to economies landscape management activities in of scale that could be realized in terms of program Tajikistan (through the Environmental Land management and cost reduction. Orchard Management and Rural Livelihoods project40 establishment with legumes, such as lucerne, and now RESILAND CA+41), including woodlot establishment, orchards, assisted natural esparcet, and safflower, planted in between the regeneration, forest protection and pasture rows is an excellent way to restore degraded soils. management, JFM, FUGs, and spatial and Horticulture also ranks high in terms of its soil integrated landscape management planning protection and carbon sequestration potential. (World Bank 2020b). This commitment is aligned A key recommendation from the World Bank’s with Tajikistan’s national strategies and targets. carbon balance assessment undertaken during For example, in 2018, Tajikistan signed the Astana the Environmental Land Management and Rural Resolution for about 48,000 ha of degraded forest Livelihoods project (Golubeva 2018) is to prevent landscapes in Tajikistan by 2030 (World Bank erosion on slopes by afforestation, and where 2020b). Tajikistan’s ‘Forest Sector Development possible, to implement horticulture projects on Strategy’ aims, by 2030, to plant new forests eroded slopes of varying degrees of degradation, on 15,000 ha, rehabilitate 30,000 ha of existing also on lowlands. 40 https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/624581558014153035/pdf/Tajikistan-Env-Land-Mgt-and-Rural-Livelihoods-GEF.pdf. 41 https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099520211222125066/environmental00n0project000p171524. 42 Undertaken jointly with district governments and communities. 30 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Sustainable pasture management. Efforts to maintenance activities and irrigation. Easy access improve pastures and livestock productivity in to woodlots is also needed for their establishment Tajikistan—led by, for example, IFAD, the World and maintenance. In designing future land use Bank, and Caritas—are focused on various options, it was therefore ‘imposed’ that woodlots practices. This includes enhancing access are planted within a 1.5 km reach of a road. to remote pastures, improving water supply Orchards and woodlots need to be planted and rotational grazing, rehabilitating pasture below the tree line, which is at 2,800 m schemes and planning, growing forage crops, (Davlatov 2022a). Since woodlots can help prevent promoting livestock migration, and supporting gully erosion and landslides on steep slopes, it is the establishment of Livestock and Pasture assumed that they can be planted on any slope Management Plans and PUUs (IFAD 2015). Legally angle. Orchards, however, are typically proven registered PUUs are entitled to obtain land use on slopes between 0 and 30° angle. The area certificates and long-term lease agreements from suitable for woodlots is therefore larger relative the state, thereby allowing activities on public to that suitable for orchards. Typically, orchards pastures that relate to productivity improvement are built on Dekhan farms and private land, while and protection (Philipona et al. 2019). As pasture woodlots are found on Dekhan farms or land management activities span large areas with owned by the forestry commission. In principle, uncertain boundaries (for example, the building orchards and woodlots can also be set up on of a pasture bridge supplying access to summer degraded pastures, but in this study, it is assumed pastures) or involve activities where the planting that land currently used for pastures continue to of forage crops allows for relieving pressure be dedicated to (sustainably managed) pastures. on grazing land elsewhere, the assessment of Figure 11 shows the locations for the landscape benefits in per hectare terms can be subject to restoration scenarios, including summer, spring, much uncertainty. The landscape restoration winter, and all-year-round grazing areas, that intervention considered for the CBA in this study, were used to produce the modeling results. therefore, focuses on rotational grazing, as a The full range of criteria used for mapping the popular rangeland restoration strategy, that can interventions within the Vakhsh River Basin is be implemented and assessed within a defined shown in Table A2.2 in Annex 2. geographical boundary. The mosaic scenario combines the possible 3.2.3 Orchards, Woodlots, and intervention sites for orchards, woodlots, and Sustainable Grazing Localities rangelands. In some cases, a specific area (for Suitable locations for orchards and woodlots example, with mosaic natural vegetation) may be were found by excluding glacial terrain, barren simultaneously suitable for orchards, woodlots, land, water bodies, and grassland, using land and sustainable rangeland interventions. In that use classifications developed under similar case, orchards were allowed to take priority, studies (Bandishoev et al. 2021). The land followed by woodlots. Grazing was given last uses that were classified as possible for each priority because grassland areas are already landscape restoration intervention are shown in significant—including the largest proportion of Table A2.2, Annex 2. As for other specific criteria, land uses—and it is assumed that they continue to it was furthermore required that orchards be be used for grazing in the landscape restoration found within 1.5 km of a village, to allow for regular scenario. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 31 The mosaic landscape restoration scenario reason, the mosaic landscape restoration scenario should be seen as an entry point for adopts a more conservative approach, assuming understanding how large-scale restoration all grassland areas are still grassland. Chapter 2 could take place. This is because, in principle, includes a detailed discussion on how land use reforestation initiatives can also expand over criteria were defined for the valuation scenarios. grasslands, supplying enabling conditions, such Assuming that all the possible restoration areas as infrastructure and ability to irrigate in the first are subject to interventions, the maximum years. However, the decision should come down theoretical potential for implementing landscape to the individual use case. From the perspective restoration interventions is calculated at of maximizing the benefits from reduced erosion 966,616 ha within the Vakhsh River Basin, out and carbon sequestration, it is more efficient of a total basin area of 3,125,291 ha, as shown in to regenerate forest landscapes over degraded Table 3. The Table also shows the total area that is pastures. But to enable such significant land dedicated to each restoration intervention for the use transitions, there needs to be both social Vakhsh catchment, as well as upstream of Rogun willingness and capital availability. For this and between Nurek and Rogun. Figure 11: Location of Possible Landscape Restoration Interventions Rogun Grazing Nurek NoGrz Sum Spr/Aut Villages Win Orchards AllYr Woodlots Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 32 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Table 3: Total Areas for Each Scenario, in ha Scenarios – Intervention Area Ratio of the Intervention Area Between Intervention Whole between Rogun and Nurek Scenario Rogun and Upstream of Catchment against the Intervention Area Nurek Rogun Upstream of Rogun (%) Mosaic total 54,406 912,211 966,616 6 Mosaic - rotational grazing 37,207 714,153 751,360 5 Mosaic – woodlots 10,365 172,544 182,909 6 Mosaic – orchards 6,834 25,513 32,347 27 Rotational grazing 46,978 820,991 867,969 6 Woodlots 10,605 174,334 184,939 6 Orchards 6,834 25,513 32,347 27 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Total catchment area is 3,125,291 ha. 3.3 IDENTIFICATION OF INTERVENTIONS TO the digging of 14–16 m long wells. Facilities for IMPROVE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES: ORCHARDS drip irrigation, however, can be implemented at AND WOODLOT ESTABLISHMENT AND US$200 per ha (USAID 2020) based on a 15 ha SUSTAINABLE GRAZING orchard farm. Irrigation for small orchards can The aim of the CBA is to assess the costs and be secured through manual watering, 43 but this benefits of identified landscape restoration involves a significant investment of time (Davlatov interventions. The results, presented below, were 2022a). The cost of installing drip irrigation then used as input to calculate on-site provisioning equipment (USAID 2020) is therefore considered and regulating ecosystem services resulting from for orchard establishment. Farmers further pay a implementing these interventions, as described in flat fee to their water user association of US$17 the following section. per ha to access 8,000 m3 of irrigation water for a 1 ha orchard (Davlatov 2022a). It is furthermore Cost of Orchard Establishment assumed that the opportunity costs of using land Fencing is often needed for woodlot and orchard for orchards is considered negligible, as orchards establishment, especially in areas close to are often implemented on degraded land, and the roads or livestock corridors where the number spacing density of trees allows farmers to grow of livestock tends to be higher. Livestock eat hay and leguminous species in between the trees young trees and can damage root systems. This (for example, alfalfa, lucerne, or wheat), with an hinders natural regrowth and reduces yields (GIZ output value equivalent to what they were doing 2019). In terms of irrigation needs, evidence from before orchards establishment (Kassam 2022). Uzbekistan suggests that orchards, which are Main orchard ICs thus relate to the installation irrigated with traditional furrow systems, require and use of irrigation equipment (US$200 per ha), 43 A single tree irrigation can be managed by mulching and supplementary irrigation by bottles according to Rajabov in Davlatov (2022a). CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 33 purchase of seedlings (US$0.9 per seedling), years of age. At the end of the rotation, trees are wire and poles (US$2.7 per m) and 1 shrub per cut down and can be used for fuelwood. However, m (US$1.3 per shrub). As the hedgerow scrub not all the harvested produce is sold or consumed. grows—typically thick thorny bushes, such as According to an orchard farmer from Tojikobod, an buckthorn and rosehip—wire fencing equipment estimated 20 percent of fruits and nuts are lost to does not need to be replaced. According to a diseases and are rotten, not sold, or not necessarily local farmer, labor costs for harvesting are in harvested at the right moment (Davlatov 2022b). the order of US$12 per day (Davlatov 2022b). This is accounted for in the CBA. In neighboring Departing from the example of a pure apple Uzbekistan, mixed maple-walnut and apple-walnut orchard, the harvesting season is approximately 2 forests develop under poor site conditions on the months, resulting in an average annual harvesting southern slopes with shallow soils. A mature walnut cost of US$636 per ha. Transportation costs tree reaches up to 60 m3 volume of timber per ha are estimated to be in the order of US$4.5 per (Botman 2009) and can be sold for an average of metric tons of apples, resulting in an average US$9.3 per m3 (Davlatov 2022b). These assumptions transportation cost of about US$100 per ha, per are shown in Table A2.6 Annex 2. year. The various costs of orchard establishment and MCs are summarized in Table A2.7, Annex 2. Cost of Woodlot Establishment While the density of trees is higher within woodlots Fruit, Nut, Fuelwood, and Timber Yield compared to orchards, the proportion of species from Orchards destined for NTFP is smaller. It is therefore Orchards are found within Dekhan farms and assumed that annual maintenance and harvesting are typically sized 1–2 ha. Rural communities costs (NTFP harvesting, thinning, pruning, and value a range of products for orchard development. pesticides) are half that of orchards. This was Preferred outputs include apples, walnuts, pears, backed up by Davlatov (2022b), after consultation peaches, and apricot. To value the benefits from with the Head of Forest Department in Tojikobod. orchard development, the returns from a 1 ha of Woodlot establishment costs, irrigation costs, mixed apple and walnut orchard are considered. The and fencing establishment, however, are like that first yield is typically obtained 5 years after planting of orchards (Kassam 2022). The hiring of a small (grafted and non-grafted species) for nuts, and excavator may also be necessary (GIZ 2015). after 4 years for apples (Stark Bro’s 2021). Walnuts This cost has been added to the ICs. In terms of are usually planted at 10 x 10 m distance (100 trees forgone benefits, it is assumed that woodlots are per ha) due to their wide canopy, and apples at 5 regenerated on degraded land, used for marginal x 5 m (400 trees per ha) (Davlatov 2022a; Kassam activities and occasional grazing. The opportunity 2022). Walnut trees and apple trees yield an average cost is therefore considered equivalent to what of 40 kg of nuts per tree and 100 kg of apples per can be enjoyed from a hectare of typical pasture tree at peak yield, respectively. It is assumed that under continuous grazing, that is, US$29 per ha apple yield increases linearly from the first year of (see Table A2.8 and Table A2.9 in Annex 2 for a harvest and peaks at year 10 (Mika, Chlebowska, breakdown of yields, costs, and opportunity costs and Kosmala 1981), after which it stabilizes until related to woodlot establishment). the end of a typical 20-year rotation, followed by a gradual decline to reach 43 kg/tree 30 years after Fruit, Nut, and Timber Yields from Woodlots planting. Walnut yields are assumed to peak at 15 Field visits in the district of Tojikobod, in early 34 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS February 2022, revealed that the creation Cost of Sustainable Grazing of woodlots is a popular and prioritized Provided an enabling environment with the intervention, notably to enhance incomes and presence of PUUs that can access and manage reduce disaster risks (see Table A2.10 in Annex pasture lands, the implementation of rotational 2). According to the head of department of forestry grazing is cost-effective (Kassam 2022). The main in Tojikobod, woodlots include walnut, almond, cost elements are associated with the acquisition apricot, acacia, cherry, pistachio, dog rose, and of mobile fencing options (such as poly wire) or juniper tree species and other species that may active use of herding (Westerberg et al. 2021). This be used for timber with a density of 400 trees per latter possibility is more realistic in Tajikistan. In ha. For the economic analysis, it is assumed that the literature ICs range from US$8.1 (Wang et al. half of the trees in the stand (200 trees per ha) 2018) to US$112 per ha, when integrating access to supply NTFPs, including walnuts (100 trees per water resources (Undersander et al. 2002). ha) and fruits (100 trees per ha). For simplicity, the economic returns from fruit yields are estimated In Tajikistan, rotational grazing is practiced with reference to apricots. A healthy mature apricot using fencing on village pastures. Traditional tree produces an average yield of around 40–70 kg fencing had a cost of US$120 per ha in 2022 of apricots per season, according to crowdfarming and should be replaced every 6 years. Many (undated) and wikifarmer (undated). This number villages also use natural fencing from their own may fluctuate a lot and depends on the cultivar, trees or bushes and supplement with purchased the age of the trees, plant density, and availability mesh wire and can already use existing fences of water and nutrients. There are cases where (Davlatov 2022b). In that case, the IC is lower. On farmers can reach 140 kg per tree (wikifarmer summer and winter pastures, rotational grazing undated). This analysis uses a more conservative is usually implemented using (existing) herders, estimate of 30 kg/tree, referring to an orchard who need basic training in rotational grazing at year 10 from plantation, considering that the management. Considering these elements, it is woodlots are not optimized for fruit production. reasonable to assume that average per hectare (additional fencing) ICs are in the order of US$30 Fruits, such as apricots, sell at US$0.9/kg; in per ha for village pastures, with fencing to be Tojikobod, approximately 100 m3 of timber can replaced every 6 years, while rotational grazing be harvested from a woodlot after 14 years schemes on more distant pastures are in the (Davlatov 2022a; World Bank 2020a). 44 Consulting order of US$8.1 per ha (Wang et al. 2018) and up the literature, a volume of 104 m3 per ha was to a maximum of US$20 per ha—which covers harvested in a pure 23-year-old walnut plantation in training, capacity building, and the elaboration Italy (Pelleri et al. 2020). In Uzbekistan, the average of grazing management plans. The upper- stock of mature walnut trees mixed as maple-walnut range costs are used in the final CBA and are and apple-walnut forests reaches up to 60 m3 per summarized in Table A2.5 in Annex 2), providing ha (Botman 2009). Considering these estimates, it is conservative estimates of true net benefits from stipulated in the cash flow that 150 m3 of timber can rotational grazing. Lower-bound costs are used be harvested after a 30-year rotation. for the sensitivity analysis. 44 Another candidate tree species is pistachio, as a drought-resistant and highly appreciated tree, that under normal circumstances has a hard time regenerating, partly because of intensive fruit harvesting and use as cattle pasture. Pistachio, along with juniper and riparian forests, needs urgent attention in Tajikistan (Thevs 2018). CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 35 The time to move livestock is negligible if of about 50 percent within five years of the paddock design is efficient and livestock are project life span on ‘all year round’ village moved after milking. Rotational grazing may pastures (Shuhratjon 2022). The pastures are also decrease the need to make hay. Labor effort around villages at an altitude from 500 to 1,200 is therefore not accounted for. Indeed, personal m, with average distances of 0.5–2 to 3–4 km to discussions with the country director for Caritas village centers. The project measures included the in Tajikistan confirmed that the costs of rotational implementation of rotational grazing, water supply, grazing are minimal and that the main constraint livestock migration, and interventions including to the upscaling of rotational grazing system is access to summer pastures, formalized through the underlying land tenure situation in Tajikistan Community Livestock and Pasture Management (Kassam 2022). That is why Caritas is now focusing Plans by the participating PUUs. its efforts on the reform of pasture legislation Actual estimates of forage production in tons of (Kassam 2022) instead of site-specific project DM per hectare were not available from Kulob implementation. The opportunity cost is assumed or Tojikobod. However, World Bank (2020a) to be merely that which may be earned from a report benchmarks estimates for low, moderately, hectare of grazing land in its degraded state. and severely degraded pastures in the province Sustainable Grazing and Forage Yield of Districts of Republican Subordination (DRS), an area which hosts a large part of the Vakhsh The degradation of pastures is commonly River Basin (World Bank 2020a). Consistent with addressed by balancing forage demand with literature and expert opinion (Davlatov 2022b; forage production (Etzold and Neudert 2019; Kassam 2022), it is assumed that winter, spring, Pachzelt et al. 2013). A meta-analysis of 30 long- and fall pastures are moderately degraded; village term grazing studies from various environments in pastures are severely degraded; and summer North America showed that grazing at the carrying pastures are little degraded because they are capacity of land led to a 23 percent higher biomass remotely located. Using the above benchmark productivity relative to the heavily grazed areas. estimates from the World Bank (2020a), post- To the extent that planting of forage crops, intervention forage production was estimated for rotational grazing, and improved pasture access different classes of pastures. According to IFAD’s to remote areas allow for evening-out grazing and Caritas’ experiences, it was also assumed pressure over a given area, it may be assumed that biomass productivity can be increased by that biomass productivity can increase by at 50 percent on village pastures and 20 percent least 20 percent because of these actions. This on remaining pastures (see Table A2.4 Annex 2 hypothesis was confirmed by field observations in for details). Biomass estimates from Table A2.4 Tojikobod, situated 35 km east of Kalanak (Figure have been used to parameterize the hydrological 4), where the planting of esparcet and rotational SWAT model and to assess how improved pasture grazing schemes has allowed to increase land productivity contributes to reducing erosion and productivity by more than 20 percent on spring/ enhancing water yield. autumn pastures (Davlatov 2022b). A principal limitation of livestock productivity In the IFAD Livestock and Pasture Development in Tajikistan is the quantitative and qualitative Project, in the district of Kulob, farmers have scarcity of feed (Jenet 2005; Cavatassi and seen biomass productivity improvements Gemessa 2022). The most important food 36 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS resources are pasture biomass, crop residues associated literature reviews suggest that it will and hay. Additionally, farmers and pastoralists take 6 years for pasture biomass to be regenerated supplement with cultivated fodder (such as alfalfa (Davlatov 2022b; Li et al. 2018). It is assumed that and sainfoin) and concentrates of cottonseed other associated ecosystem service benefits, oilcake (Jenet 2005; IFAD 2015). The benefit of notably reduced erosion, water regeneration, and improved pasture productivity may therefore be carbon sequestration, will follow the same path. valued using the replacement cost method since Thus, to account for the continuous increase in an increase in forage production will reduce the ecosystem service benefits between ‘now’ and need to buy hay (or other forage supplements 45). when the effects of the planned interventions are The inflation-adjusted average price of hay in fully developed, a linear interpolation is undertaken Tajikistan is US$52.4 per metric ton (World from no reduction within the 1st year to 100 percent Bank 2020a). It is conservatively assumed that reduction in the 6th year (sustainable grazing) or changes in pasture productivity are achieved 15th year (orchards and woodlots). within five years of implementing the sustainable pasture management measures, following IFAD’s 3.5 APPROACHES TO VALUE experience (Shuhratjon 2022). HYDROLOGICAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES About one-third (1.57 million ha) of the total 3.4 IDENTIFICATION OF OFF-SITE REGULATING ECOSYSTEM SERVICE 4.6 million ha of agricultural land in Tajikistan BENEFITS is potentially irrigable (Xenarios et al. 2021). The area currently irrigated is half its potential Given the data availability, the list of ecosystem (753,083 ha), and only 201,370 ha of rain-fed services was narrowed down to focus on those arable land is cultivated (GOT 2016). The average related to provisioning (such as forage, fruits, yield of wheat crops in irrigated lands of valleys nuts, timber, and fuelwood) and to co-benefits in Tajikistan (Khatlon, Sughd, and DRS) is 4–6 from regulating (such as those pertaining to times higher than the wheat produced in rain- climate change mitigation and improvements to fed areas (OSCE 2018). As a result, almost 80 the hydrological cycle, including erosion control, water availability for plants, return flow to rivers, percent of the agricultural output in Tajikistan is soil moisture, and reduced runoff). cultivated in irrigated areas (Xenarios et al. 2021). More than 90 percent of Tajikistan’s total annual Landscape restoration contributes to controlling runoff of freshwater and groundwater sources is soil erosion, reducing losses of water and diverted to agriculture (GOT 2015), and irrigated nutrients, sequestering carbon, strengthening farming accounts for approximately 40 percent biogeochemical cycles, managing soil pH and salt of groundwater exploitation (Chen et al. 2008). balance, enhancing biocomplexity, and creating Freshwater is an inherently important input into disease-suppressive soil (Lal 2016). Benefits will the agricultural production in Tajikistan. take some time to materialize. Expert deliberation within the consultant team suggests a period of Landscape restoration positively affects 15 years would be needed before full benefits will hydrological services, including the recharge kick in and the new equilibrium to be reached after of groundwater aquifers, thus contributing to woodlots and orchards reforestation. In terms of the increase of baseflows and streamflows rotational grazing, field visits from Tojikobod and during dry periods and to reduction of runoff 45 Such as cottonseed oilcake and grain by-products. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 37 and flood risk (van Meerveld et al. 2021). This Historically, water has been undervalued in is confirmed by the results of the SWAT model. Tajikistan. Undervaluation leads to misuse and Reduced sedimentation also improves reservoir misallocation of water. All too often, it is used for storage capacity. Therefore, in estimating the purposes that do not maximize well-being and is value of enhanced water supplies, the assessment regulated in ways that do not recognize scarcity accounts for (a) soil moisture, as a source of or promote conservation (World Bank 2017a). passive irrigation, (b) groundwater infiltration, and An economically efficient use of water requires (c) enhanced reservoir storage of water. The value equalizing its marginal product in value across of that water is estimated, as explained in the next competing uses. This requires the consideration section. of the full economic cost, which requires an While the study focuses on in-situ and assessment of the use cost of water and the extractive uses of water in farming, it should be opportunity cost of the resource (Briscoe 1996). acknowledged that water also supplies other The use cost corresponds to the marginal financial important use and non-use values, for example, cost of supplying the water to the user (that is, costs for industry, urban water supplies, recreation, incurred in financing and running the abstraction, and biodiversity maintenance (Turner et al. transmission, treatment, and distribution systems), 2004). The latter, however, are not accounted for and the opportunity cost reflects the value of water here. in its best alternative use, in farming, typically the gross benefits forgone by not irrigating a Valuing Water neighboring field or storing the water for use at a Since markets for water either typically do not later time when it is of higher value. These elements exist or are highly imperfect, the task of valuing are analyzed in detail in Annex 2, to attribute a its economic contribution for different users shadow price to the enhanced water availability is challenging. A broad range of methods have and improved reservoir storage capacity, resulting therefore been used to estimate the value of water. from landscape restoration. These methods include estimating demand curves Use Cost of Water and integrating areas under them, examining market-like transactions, estimating production The supply of irrigation water in Tajikistan is functions, estimating the costs of supplying water challenged by the deteriorating conditions of if an existing source were not to be available, and pump stations, distribution networks, drainage, asking willingness-to-pay questions on how much and canal systems, due to environmental factors users value the resource (Arrow et al. 1993; Griffin and insufficient maintenance. Due to insufficient et al. 1995). To value the benefits of supplying structures and inefficient drainage systems, there irrigation water, the World Commission on Dams is a high volume of water losses from seepage recommends estimating the net value of the throughout the distribution systems. These are resulting increase in crop production (Aylward et causing topsoil salinization. The replacement al. 2001). As explained in Annex 2, this approach and maintenance of deteriorating irrigation and was not deemed suitable for this study due to drainage infrastructure is therefore of paramount insufficient data on input production costs and the importance to ensure sustained agricultural heavy subsidization of irrigated water in Tajikistan, production (ALRI 2021). Moreover, in many cases, which leads to an inefficient use of water and the river water level is at a lower elevation compared potentially negative net benefits. to the agricultural land, which makes it necessary 38 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS for water to be lifted by large pumping stations are used as a (conservative) proxy for the use into main canals (OSCE 2018). Pump irrigation cost of water in irrigation. 46 Water abstraction use and associated electricity absorbs 70 percent of costs are furthermore corrected for artificially low the annual operation and maintenance (O&M) electricity tariffs (as explained in Annex 2), yielding budget in neighboring Uzbekistan (World Bank an economic use cost of irrigation of US$0.05 per 2022d). Given this, electricity costs for pumping m3 of irrigation water (Table 4). Table 4: Economic Cost of Water in Tajikistan Use Cost of Irrigation Water Unit Value Water abstraction use cost - subsidized (covering 70% of the true electricity cost) US$/m3 0.014 Water abstraction use cost - unsubsidized US$/m3 0.048 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Opportunity Cost of Water Used for Irrigation is the value of the forgone output on ‘another’ (unirrigated) field. To approximate this value, While the financial sustainability of irrigation Annex 2 Section A2.6 uses information on average systems is important for O&M reasons, from the point of view of managing water as an economic irrigation volumes, water productivity for wheat in resource, the key challenge is to ensure that the Vakhsh River Basin, water efficiency, and the users consider the opportunity costs of water. market prices. This generates a gross benefit of Opportunity costs vary depending on which US$0.05 per m3 of water used. Combining the use alternative use comes into play. A typical situation value and the opportunity cost yields an economic in irrigated systems, including in Tajikistan, is one cost of US$0.1 per m3 of irrigation water, a price in which users are charged a small, subsidized that would ensure that users consider the full amount for the ‘use cost’ and the opportunity cost economic cost of water when using it.) Table 5: Full-Cost Assessment of the Value of Water - Assumptions and Results Parameter Unit Value Yield of wheat (for a typical irrigation volume V) kg/ha 1,837.5 Irrigation volume per hectare m3/ha 15,000 Average price of wheat grain in Tajikistana US$/kg 0.402 Water productivity in Vakhsh for wheat kg/m3 0.35 Water efficiency % 35 Revenue per ha of added wheat US$/ha 739.1 Gross benefit/opportunity cost of irrigation US$/m3 0.05 Full economic cost of water (use cost + opportunity cost) US$/m3 0.1 Source: 46 Original elaboration for this publication. Note: a. From World Bank (2020a). 46 While this may be an overestimate of the use cost for irrigation systems that rely on gravitation, overall, this is counteracted as we have not been able to incorporate replacement, repair, and damage costs of infrastructure in the use cost. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 39 3.6 APPROACHES TO VALUING the dam and gates, and damages mechanical SEDIMENT REDUCTION turbines and other mechanical equipment. Damage to equipment happens through erosion Sustainable sediment management seeks to of the oxide coating on the blades, leading to achieve a balance between sediment inflow surface irregularities and eventually to more and outflow and to restore sediment delivery to serious material damage. Sustained erosion can the downstream channel, thereby maximizing lead to extended shutdown time for maintenance long-term storage, hydropower, and other or replacement. Moreover, recent studies have benefits while minimizing environmental highlighted the synergic effect of cavitation harm (Morris 2020). Management strategies erosion and sediment erosion, showing that the focus on improving the sediment balance across combined effect of cavitation and sand erosion reservoirs by reducing sediment yield from the is stronger than the individual effects (Thapa, catchment. For example, through the kind of Dahlhaug, and Thapa 2015). landscape restoration interventions analyzed here, routing sediment-laden flows around or Moreover, it is unclear whether Nurek Dam through the storage pool, or removing sediment was designed to deal with added sediment through flushing, or with various dredging load once more sediment reaches the dam options, including continuous sediment transfer. axis. Sedimentation load will add significant The benefit of reducing sedimentation through pressure toward the dam’s upstream face. If not landscape restoration can be assessed in terms designed for this, it is a threat to the structural of the benefits of keeping reservoir storage, integrity of the dam (Detering 2018). There is thus energy production, and discharge capability. This a significant range of present and future costs maximizes long-term storage for hydropower and and risks associated with unabated sediment irrigation and other benefits compared to the BAU accumulation, whether for Nurek or Rogun under scenario of continued sediment build-up. construction. In elaborating this assessment, several approaches to valuing the impact of Sedimentation also affects the safety and reduced erosion from landscape restoration were flood attenuation capabilities. As sedimentation used, notably (a) the value of enhanced reservoir progresses, the reservoir becomes a delta-filled storage for irrigation (assessed in the earlier valley that takes a meandering course, such that section), (b) the full-cost accounting and avoided a flood wave does not spread out to allow flood reservoir rehabilitation costs, and (c) the value of routing. 47 Sediments will often block low-level avoided or reduced dredging costs. outlets designed to allow for reservoir drawdown. As sedimentation continues, clogging of spillway Avoided Reservoir Rehabilitation tunnels or other conduits reduces spillway Costs and the Case for Considering capacity, as seen in Nurek (AIIB 2017). The two Dredging Costs outer dam gates of Nurek were already inoperable, Full-cost accounting recognizes that the value of in 2014, due to sedimentation (D-Sediment 2014). (restored) reservoir volume—when considering Sediment also creates a wide range of its productive services alone—is incomplete. environmental impacts (such as CH4 production Leaving out the value of dam safety and flood from anoxic sediments), increases loads on protection is not acceptable from an engineering 47 https://www.hydroreview.com/world-regions/dealing-with-sediment-effects-on-dams-and-hydropower-generation/#gref. 40 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS and safety standpoint. So, in that case, the full-cost reservoirs. Consequently, the benefit of reduced approach involves assessing reservoir restoration erosion is also estimated in this study, in terms of cost—that is, the cost of replacing the storage that averted dredging or sediment transfer costs. would be lost by new infrastructure. This is done It is also important to note that flushing is not by estimating the original reservoir construction an effective possibility for Nurek nor for Rogun cost (or that of Rogun) and then inflating them (TEAS 2014). In the case of Nurek, the effect is to obtain their present value. Alternatively, one limited to a tiny section of the reservoir, which is may use the new-build cost for storage capacity. directly in front of the dam (D-Sediment 2014). Rogun Dam was first scheduled for US$2 billion Other sediment will remain in place, and flushing with a nominal active capacity of 10 km3 . Newer will come with a loss of valuable water. Dredging estimates suggest US$5 billion are needed for and sediment reuse or continuous sediment the construction of the Rogun powerplant (Asia transfer could therefore offer promising options Plus 2022), leading to a specific storage cost of for managing sediment, in combination with only US$0.5 per m3 leaving out sediment MCs the reduction of sediment from catchment—as and other environmental consequences. In a source of green infrastructure—the first-best comparison with Europe and West Asia, estimates choice to sediment management (Randle and are seen in the range between EUR 2 and 6 per Boyd 2018). m3 (D-Sediment 2022; Myint and Westerberg 2015). Even the full-cost accounting approach Continuous Sediment Transfer and therefore has its limitation, since in most cases, Dredging Costs ‘other effects’ and the true costs of sedimentation Dredging refers to the excavation of material (upstream aggradation, downstream degradation from beneath the water. There are broadly and decommissioning costs, and sediment MCs in two types of dredging: (a) mechanical-lift general) are unaccounted for in the construction dredging removes sediment by buckets such as design (Randle and Boyd 2018). For this reason, a backhoe, clamshell, dragline, or bucket ladder, it may be equally justified to consider the benefit placing the excavated material into a barge or of reduced sedimentation in terms of avoided truck for transport; and (b) hydraulic dredging dredging and sediment transfer costs, which mixes sediment with water for transport in a embeds a wider range of benefits from reducing slurry pipeline, reintroducing the sediment back sedimentation. to the river below the dam, or discharging to a containment area for dewatering. A critical Reduced Dredging Costs limitation to dredging is its cost. This cost is Erosion affects the hydropower generation reduced by discharging to the river below the capacity of Nurek. However, as argued dam instead of upland disposal sites, for example, above, there are other benefits to reduced using continuous sediment transfer (Detering sedimentation—including more balanced reservoir 2014, 2018). This allows for restoring sediment operation, reduced flood risk, reduced damage transport along the fluvial system, through the to equipment, and minimized environmental reintroduction of sediment into the river below the harm. It is beyond the scope of the current study dam. This strategy implies continuous sediment to quantify these ‘co-benefits’. Taken together, transfer as opposed to large dredging campaigns at however, they often justify expenditures on intervals of decades (Morris 2020). Unfortunately, dredging and active sediment management of active reservoir sediment management is globally CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 41 not a standard practice (Randle and Boyd 2018), continuous sediment transfer option for Nurek and evidence suggests that this is the case for to be in the order of US$2 per m3 transferred Nurek as well. At hydropower sites, costs can be (D-Sediment 2022). Water and power needs reduced by using self-generated electrical energy for continuous sediment transfer would be for dredging. compensated by maintained reservoir capacity, The key cost drivers of dredging are shown in avoiding power and water losses. In the light Annex 2. Interviews and literature research were of this data, a conservative sediment removal used to obtain a ballpark estimate of ranges of cost of US$3 per m3 is used to infer the value of potential dredging costs for Nurek and Rogun. reducing erosion through landscape restoration. Dredging price in East Asia region is in the order A more detailed description of the approaches of US$4.67 per m3 in India, based on seven inland used to assess the value of sediment reduction is river dredging projects, each removing over 1 presented in Annex 2. million m3 of sediment (Indian Infrastructure 3.7 APPROACHES TO VALUE THE IMPACT 2019), and US$3.46 per m3 in Bangladesh (Dhaka OF LANDSCAPE RESTORATION ON THE Tribune 2020). In the United States, the most CARBON BALANCE typical dredging price over the last decade has been US$3.5–5.8 per m3 for hydraulic dredging Terrestrial carbon sequestration is the into a nearby confined placement site. Higher- process of capture and long-term storage priced exceptions apply to projects where access of atmospheric CO2 by forests, grasslands, was particularly difficult or the containment wetlands, and other terrestrial ecosystems. area required a significantly higher preparation The carbon stock of an ecosystem is determined (Western Dredging Association 2021, 44). by the environmental conditions, land use, and Discussion with Royal IHC IDH suggests that regime of natural and anthropogenic disturbances dredging costs are in the order of US$1–4 per m3 , (Keith et al. 2019). Rangeland and forest landscape with the most critical parameters being the type of restoration will therefore also alter the above- and material, dredging depth, and pumping distance below-ground carbon balance within the Vakhsh World Bank communications with Royal IHC River Basin. IDH, 2022). Moreover, as mentioned above, costs Changes in the carbon balance, resulting are expected to be lower if reservoir sediments from woodlot and orchards establishment, are delivered to the downstream channel and as well as rotational pasture management, more natural sediment transport conditions are were estimated using FAO EX-ACT software. restored to the environment (Western Dredging For woodlots, the results reported in the Association 2021). Environmental Land Management and Rural A continuous sediment transfer could come Livelihoods (ELMARL) project’s carbon balance with a lower cost and higher environmental report were used (Golubeva 2018), which are compliance than conventional dredging due likewise derived from the FAO EX-ACT software. to significantly smaller dimensions and 24/7 These results are shown in Table 6. Negative operation. In the case of Nurek, very roughly, values show that all the restoration interventions D-Sediment estimates the implementation of a contribute to a net-sequestration of carbon. 42 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Table 6: Changes in the Carbon Balance over a 30-Year Time Horizon 30 Years GHG in tCO2-eq per ha (30 years) Per ha per Year Orchards -296.0 -9.9 Grazing -34.5 -1.2 Woodlots (plantation) -69.3 -2.3 Woodlots (natural) -564.6 -18.8 Mixed (plantation and natural) -317.1 -10.6 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. The high variance in sequestration potential in the Vakhsh River Basin, these are not naturally from woodlots is explained by the fact that the regrown; however, only non-grafted species are main characteristics (for example, the growth allowed (Kassam 2022). For this reason, we use a rate of trees and respective biomass quantities) midpoint estimate (between natural and planted) depend on the management regime. A distinction for the carbon sequestration potential of woodlots. should be made between intensively (for example, For each year t, the average annual increase in the plantation forestry) and extensively (naturally regrowing stands with reduced or minimum human ecosystem carbon balance, in moving from the BAU intervention) managed forests (Golubeva 2018). In scenario to the landscape restoration scenario, is the case of the woodlot intervention considered estimated according to Equation 2: Net increase in the carbon balance BAUtLRt = , where GHG are the sequestered GHG emissions, associated with landscape restoration, expressed in tCO2-eq per year per hectare. AC refers to the area that is converted in year t from that land use type to the other. The economic benefits of investing in integrated The commission concluded that the explicit carbon landscape management scenarios can be price level consistent with achieving the Paris estimated using the SCC, which tries to capture temperature target and keeping temperature rise the marginal global damage cost of an added below 2° is at least US$40–80/tCO2 in 2020, rising to unit of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere. For US$50–100/tCO2 by 2030 and US$78–156/tCO2 by this purpose, we draw on the recommendations 2050 provided that a supportive policy environment produced by the High-Level Commission on is in place (World Bank 2017b). The trajectory of Carbon Prices, led by Joseph Stiglitz and Nicholas the recommended SCC is shown in Figure 12. The Stern (Carbon Pricing Leadership Coalition 2017). assessment uses the average/midrange of the SCC. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 43 Figure 12: SCC (US$/tCO2-eq), Shadow Price of Carbon by Year $200.00 High $150.00 Average $100.00 Low $50.00 $0.00 20 30 40 50 Year Source: Original elaboration for this publication. The avoided societal damage costs from for premier voluntary REDD+ credits (S&P Global enhanced carbons sequestration cannot be 2022). This assessment uses an average price of directly appropriated by communities, nor US$5 per tCO2=eq to infer the potential value of Tajikistan, since carbon sequestration is a carbon emission reductions to local communities. global public good. The estimates nevertheless Consequently, the present value of the avoided supply an important perspective on the societal- social damage cost or marketable benefits from wide benefits of adopting landscape intervention enhanced carbon sequestration is estimated scenarios within the Vakhsh River Basin. following Equation 3. Another way to estimate economic benefits Present value of enhanced carbon sequestration = is to provide carbon credits. Then, emission reductions are certified and verified and could be sold as carbon emission reductions credits in the voluntary carbon market. The voluntary where P t is the price of a unit tCO2-eq emission carbon market is currently grabbing headlines reduction, sold on the voluntary carbon market in with record transactions and soaring credit prices. year t . The weighted average price per ton for credits from forestry and land use projects that reduce 3.8 ECONOMIC VALUATION OF ALTERNATIVE emissions or remove carbon from the atmosphere INTERVENTIONS IN VAKHSH VALLEY - has been on a steady upward path, rising from INTEGRATED ANALYSIS US$4.3 per credit in 2019 to US$5.60 in 2020 Forest and rangeland restoration enhances (Ecosystem Services Marketplace 2021) with a nutrient, carbon, and water cycling, thus spike to about US$7.5 per tCO2-eq by end of 2022 supplying important ecosystem services to 44 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS the wider society. The results from the previous As the earlier sections have shown, landscape analysis were used to assess the value of reduced restoration provides a range of benefits with erosion and runoff and enhanced groundwater, values that vary according to the perspective soil moisture, and carbon sequestration, from taken. As an example, Figure 13 shows the range orchards, woodlots, or rotational grazing, of benefits generated per hectare of land restored individually and when combined as part of a under mosaic restoration. Further, the report landscape mosaic. The interventions also enhance discusses economic benefits from improvement the availability of marketable produce to local in ecosystem services associated with different communities. The monetary net benefits of these landscape restoration interventions in the Vakhsh ecosystem services to land users and the wider River Basin. society alike are presented below. Figure 13: Regulating Ecosystem Service Benefits from Reduced Erosion, Carbon Sequestration, and Enhanced Water Availability, per ha Land Restored Avoided damage costs $3950 from climate change 500 450 400 350 300 Sale of carbon credits $/ha 250 Avoided 200 dredging 150 Avoided 100 reservoir construction 50 Irrigation 0 Reduced erosion benefits ($/ha) Water availability benefits ($/ha) Carbon mitigation benefits ($/ha) Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: T = 30 years, r = 6 percent. Economic Value of Erosion Reduction interventions, averaged over the 10-year and Avoided Dredging from Landscape simulation period. It must be kept in mind that Restoration Interventions the interventions are assumed to have been A summary of the sediment input to Rogun completely developed, that is, 5–6 years for the Dam for the different source types is provided rotational grazing and 15 years for the woodlots in Table 7 for the baseline and the four scenario and orchards. After that time, maximum overall CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 45 reduction is the highest for the scenario where (S3, 3.5 percent) scenario. The reductions can all interventions are carried out (S1 - mosaic) and mainly be attributed to the reduction in gully reaches 6.7 percent reduction, followed by the erosion. The detailed spatial intervention results rotational grazing (S2, 4.2 percent) and woodlots are provided in Annex 1. Table 7: Sediment Budget at Rogun Dam, in Million Tons per Year Sheet Reduction Landslide Scree Gully Channel All and Rill (%) Baseline 19.4 34.4 1.8 34.7 2.4 92.4 — S1 - Mosaic 18.3 34.4 1.8 29.6 2.4 86.2 6.7 S2 - Rotational grazing 18.8 34.4 1.8 31.4 2.4 88.5 4.2 S3 - Woodlot reforestation 18.8 34.4 1.8 32.0 2.4 89.1 3.5 S4 - Orchards establishment 19.4 34.4 1.8 34.5 2.4 92.2 0.2 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Figure 14 shows the spatial distribution of landscape restoration interventions is provided in sediment transport in the river reaches of the Table 8. Vakhsh River and its tributaries for the baseline The results prove that even after the and the four scenario interventions. Upstream construction of Rogun has been completed, and headwater catchments are affected the least there are significant benefits to be reaped while the reductions accumulate downstream and from reducing erosion, especially channel and the highest absolute reductions are shown for the gully erosion, between Rogun and Nurek and main stem of the Vakhsh River upstream of Rogun upstream of Rogun (Annex 1). Upstream of Rogun, Dam, reaching 6.7 million tons, equivalent to landscape restoration allows for reducing erosion 4.92 million m sediments using a sediment bulk 3 and sediment transport by 3.7 m3 per ha per year density of 1.3594 from TEAS (2014). restored, through rotational grazing, and by 15.1 m3 per ha woodlot reforested. The area between Nurek Impact of Landscape Restoration and Rogun covers 96,612 ha. Within this segment, Interventions on Combined Sediment the mosaic landscape restoration scenario covers Transport for Nurek and Rogun 54,406 ha. Average annual sediment loads are For the economic valuation, the sediment reduced by 1.5 m3 per ha restored under mosaic budget and observed changes have been landscape restoration. The impact of landscape converted into cubic meters, since the impact restoration on reduced erosion, from all sources, is of landscape restoration on reservoir storage of smaller magnitude in the Rogun–Nurek section, is evaluated in volumetric terms. The total compared to upstream of Rogun. This is mostly sediment reduction upstream of Rogun, as well attributed to steeper terrain, upstream of Rogun as between Rogun and Nurek, for each of the (Table 8). 46 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Figure 14: Combined Sediment Transport and Reduction from the Interventions 69o0’ 70o0’ 71o0’ 72o0’ 73o0’ 69o0’ 70o0’ 71o0’ 72o0’ 73o0’ 39o30’ 39o30’ Baseline S1 minus 39o0’ 39o0’ Baseline 38o30’ 38o30’ S2 minus S3 minus Baseline Baseline Sediment Transport S1-Baseline [1000 t/yr] -6724 – -6500 -2000 – -1500 22 – 3290 -6500 – -6000 -1500 – -1000 3290 – 7013 -6000 – -5500 -1000 – -500 S4 minus 7013 – 14393 -5500 – -5000 -500 – 0 Baseline 14393 – 25171 -5000 – -4500 0 – 34 25171 – 31578 -4500 – -4000 31578 – 46453 -4000 – -3500 46453 – 53108 -3500 – -3000 53108 – 67637 -3000 – -2500 0 50 100 km 67637 – 97219 -2500 – -2000 Source: Original elaboration for this publication Table 8: Total Sediment Reduction Upstream of Rogun and Between Nurek and Rogun, Including the Size of the Intervention Areas Baseline to Baseline to Baseline to Baseline to Unit Rotational Mosaic Woodlot Orchard Grazing Upstream of Rogun Total reduction over 30 years m3 127,984,830 76,026,188 53,405,914 3,236,722 Annual sediment reductiona m3/ha/year 5.5 3.7 15.1 6.8 Total area ha 912,221 714,153 172,544 25,513 Between Nurek and Rogun Annual sediment reductiona m3/ha/year 1.5 1.2 3.5 1.9 Total area ha 54,406 37,207 10,365 6,834 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: a. When full restoration impact has been achieved (6 years for grazing and 15 years for orchards and woodlots). CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 47 Value of Reduced Erosion - up that are typically not accounted for in reservoir Whole Catchment construction costs, including the damage caused by sediment to turbine equipment, increased risk The mosaic restoration scenario — which caters to the integration of sustainable of flooding, and eternity costs associated with pasture management, woodlots, and orchard dam decommissioning. In this sense, it may be establishment within the same landscape—will argued that the avoided dredging cost is a more reduce erosion by an average of 132.4 m3 per ha adequate reflection of the true benefits of reducing restored over a 30-year period, compared to sedimentation. the baseline scenario (Table 9). When valued in Under mosaic restoration, the present value terms of the enhanced reservoir storage capacity benefit is US$162 per ha in terms of avoided using the full economic cost of irrigation water, the dredging cost (ranging from US$127 per ha benefit is US$5.4 per ha restored. of rotational grazing to US$449 per ha from Alternatively, when using the construction cost woodlot establishment). Large-scale mosaic of Rogun as a benchmark for possible reservoir restoration of the Vakhsh catchment leads to restoration costs, the value of that improved savings of over US$26 million from avoided storage capacity amounts to US$27 per ha of reservoir restoration costs, or US$156 million in land restored. As argued above, however, there terms of avoided dredging costs, over a 30-year are other costs associated with sediment build- time horizon. Table 9: Present Value Benefits from Reduced Erosion, Whole Watershed Discount Rate m3/ha/year 30-Year Total per ha (m3/ha/30 years) Mosaic (Average Rotational Mosaic Woodlot Orchard Annual over 30 Grazing Years) Reduced erosion (m3/ha) 4.4 m3/ha 132.4 87.6 288.8 100.1 US$/ha/year 30-Year Total (US$/ha/30 years) Enhanced storage for 0.2 5.2 4.1 14.4 6.5 irrigation (US$/ha) Reservoir restoration cost 0.9 26.0 20.4 72.0 32.4 (US$/ha) Avoided reservoir dredging 5.2 156 123 432 194 cost (US$/ha) Total 30 Years, Whole Vakhsh River Basin Reservoir restoration cost 25,115,217 17,747,383 13,324,326 1,046,726 Avoided reservoir dredging 150,691,299 106,484,300 79,945,953 6,280,355 cost Total area (ha) 966,616 751,360 182,909 32,347 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Increasing to maximum 5.2 m3 per ha, 15 years after the restoration interventions; r = 6 percent. 48 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Value of Reduced Erosion to Nurek HPP - sediment infill which has formed a 150 m thick Erosion Affecting Nurek sequence of delta deposits. These deposits have reduced the reservoirs storage capacity by 33.5 The 300 m tall Nurek Dam on the Vakhsh percent according to HRW (2016) (potentially up River is the largest HPP and the second to 50 percent according to D-Sediment), with a largest regulation reservoir in the Amu Darya 48.5 percent loss in the inactive storage volume River basin (after Tyuyamuyun Reservoir in but only a 13.8 percent loss in the reservoir’s Uzbekistan). 48 Built during the 1960s when active storage volume. D-Sediment suggests Tajikistan was part of the former Soviet Union, storage loss may be up to 50 percent in 2013. the dam impounds a 70 km long reservoir, with a Using a midpoint, we assume that Nurek had design capacity of 10.5 km3 that was reached in lost 42 percent of its storage capacity by 2016, 1983 (D-Sediment 2022). The dam’s nine turbines resulting in a remaining storage capacity of 6.09 contribute some 3,015 MW of power, being the km 3 that year (D-Sediment 2022) single largest point of generating capacity in the Rogun HPP is planned to rise to 1,100 m.a.s.l. country (Taylor 2016). Nurek also has the seasonal by April 2024. Until then about 70 percent of the purpose for irrigation of approximately 70,000 average annual sediment volume (of 92.7 million ha in the months (D-Sediment 2022). Since its tons) arriving upstream of Rogun Reservoir is construction, sedimentation has significantly transferred downstream (Kochnakyan 2022). reduced the reservoir’s storage capacity. Between After 2024 and until 2030 (projected end of impoundment in 1972 and 2001, the reduction in construction), this sediment volume is expected storage capacity is estimated to be 2 km3 , some to decrease sharply by about 40–50 percent. The 20 percent of the reservoir’s original volume total amount of sediment passing downstream for (Taylor 2016). At peak storage levels, water depths 2020–2030 is thus expected to range between in the reservoir vary from 158 m close to the dam, 400 and 450 million m3 (Kochnakyan 2022). This is decreasing to 35 m at 30 km above, due to the consistent with calculations in Table 10. Table 10: Storage Loss of Nurek Reservoir over Time Original Storage of Nurek Reservoir 10.50 km3 A Storage loss to sediment (1983–2016) 42% (between 33% and 50%) B Total storage (2016) 6.09 km3 C Average annual sediment arriving at Rogun (converted from 92.4 million tons) 68,444,444 m3 D Average annual sediment load to Nurek (2016–2020) - 70% transferred 47,911,111 m3 E Average annual erosion between Nurek and Rogun (independent of Rogun) 442,309 m3 F Average annual sediment inflow to Nurek (up until 2020) (E + D) 48,353,420 m3 G 40% of sediment after 2024 (average amount arriving to Nurek after 2024) 27,377,777 m3 Sediment build-up for 2020–2030 (70% transferred until 2024 and 45% H 411,667,534 m3 transferred after 2024) 48 I Sediment build-up in Nurek by 2030 574,281,214 m3 48 https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/eca/central-asia/ESIA%20Vol%20I%20%20Final_eng.pdf. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 49 Table 10 Original Storage of Nurek Reservoir 10.50 km3 J Remaining storage of Nurek (2030) 5.51 km3 Sediment build-up in Nurek (2030–2050), assuming 3% of sediment entering K Rogun continues to be transferred + continued sediment from the Rogun–Nurek 49,912,847 m3 section L Projected remaining storage of Nurek in 2050 5.46 km3 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. However, there are erosion processes between time horizon (Table 10). Landscape restoration Rogun and Nurek that lead to siltation levels upstream of Rogun will also lead to reduced that are equivalent to average annual quantity of sedimentation of Nurek, though to a lesser 442,309 m3 per year (Table 10). By extrapolation, extent per hectare restored, since Rogun traps a it implies that Nurek will have halved its storage significant amount of that sediment. Over a 30-year capacity by 2030, after which sediment inflow time horizon (2022–2052), large-scale landscape will reduce to 3 percent of the sediment arriving restoration within the Vakhsh River Basin would upstream of Rogun, in addition to the continued allow for reducing sediment inflow to Nurek by erosion between the two dams. By 2050, therefore, 10.9 million m3 by 2050 (Table 11) compared to Nurek will have lost an added 50 million m3 of the BAU scenario projecting 50 million m3 of lost storage capacity. This result is contrary to HRW storage capacity by 2050. (2016) report (where erosion between the two Based on the avoided reservoir rehabilitation dams was neglected), which concludes that “in cost (US$0.5 per m3), the present value benefit the best case of the highest Rogun Dam height of large-scale landscape restoration in terms alternative, there is no storage loss in Nurek until of avoided reservoir rehabilitation cost is in the the end of the simulation period.”49 order of US$3.2 million for the 2022–2052 time Value of Reduced Erosion to Nurek HPP horizon. Focused restoration efforts within the - Economic Value of Improved Sediment Rogun–Nurek section alone (on the 54,000 ha of Reduction suitable land) can reduce sediment inflow to Nurek Although Rogun is being constructed, the by 2.3 million m3 . The greatest per hectare benefits results presented here still make a case for come from woodlot restoration. Added benefits minimizing catchment erosion upstream of include climate proofing, notably, enhanced Rogun and between Rogun and Nurek. When flood attenuation capacity, reduced risks to the using a combination of restoration approaches, structural integrity of the dam, and more balanced between Nurek and Rogun erosion levels are reservoir operation. It was outside the scope of reduced by 43 m per ha restored, over a 30-year 3 this assessment to estimate these benefits. 49 49 According to HR Wallingford, the construction of the Rogun dam has three alternative full supply levels: 1,290 m (S-2.1). The model predicts that the decrease in storage volume due to the inflow of sediment from the catchment between Rogun and Nurek Dam (about 3 percent of the total catchment at the Nurek Dam) is approximately balanced by the increase in storage volume due to compaction of deposits. However, it is understood that the secondary data used for this study are not trusted and that the primary data were insufficient to confirm the results. 50 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Table 11: Present Value Benefit of Avoided Erosion to Nurek HPP Discount Rate 30-Year Total per ha Rotational r = 6.00% Units Mosaic Woodlot Orchard Grazing Reduced erosion between Rogun and m3/ha 43 33 85 47 Nurek Reduced erosion upstream of Rogun, m3/ha 9 8 26 12 passed to Nureka Avoided reservoir restoration cost per US$/ha 12 10 26 13 hectare restored 30-Year Total - Benefit to Nurek Reduced erosion, between Rogun and m3 2,314,925 1,531,246 900,135 321,487 Nurek Reduced erosion upstream of Rogun, m3 8,661,385 6,822,763 4,589,942 301,701 passed to Nurek Reduced erosion (total) m3 10,976,310 8,354,009 5,490,077 623,188 Avoided reservoir restoration cost (total) US$ 3,222,652 2,595,805 1,633,426 160,820 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: a. Based on the assumption that 70 percent of the sediment is transferred downstream of Rogun during 2022–2024, 40 percent is transferred during 2024–2030, and 3 percent is transferred after 2030. Economic Value of Hydrological Ecosystem downstream users that are mainly evaluated. Services from Catchment Management in The results are shown in Table 12 with reduced Vakhsh River Basin water availability for all downstream users. This Hydrological impacts from landscape approach may anyhow be questionable as it does restoration and resulting water availability could not consider changed microclimate so that there be evaluated using two alternative approaches, may be an increased return flow that could not depending on how the water budgets are be captured in our assessment (Filoso et al. 2017; estimated. As shown in Table 12 and Table 13, Smith, Baker, and Spracklen 2023), and there are water availability varies significantly depending on significant benefits in disaster risk reduction that the assumptions made. are less tangible. Further, actual downstream In the first approach, changes in water water availability will also depend on reservoir availability have been assessed considering storage capacity and operation as the reduced a significant amount of water being taken out runoff may be available promptly and with of the system for plant evapotranspiration/ reduced spill. Dam operation schedules would production of the newly established plants. need to be available for a thorough assessment in This leads to a seriously negative water balance this regard. Further, the water would contribute to at the expense of the downstream area—and GHG reduction through biomass build-up. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 51 In a second approach, evapotranspiration is rotational grazing to 190 m3 per ha in the woodlot considered a neutral factor with the benefits restoration scenario. The interventions, as a as shown in Table 13 (Filoso et al. 2017; Smith, source of green infrastructure, supply benefits for: Baker, and Spracklen 2023). While surface runoff • Upstream rain-fed agriculture, through higher is reduced (specifically during high-flow events), soil water content and groundwater level; there is a positive total water balance with • Upstream run-of-river fed irrigation agriculture, increased lateral flow, 50 groundwater recharge, through more lateral return flow and reduced and soil moisture. This assumption has been used sediment flow; in this report. • Increased flood retention through smaller flood As shown, the mosaic restoration scenario peaks and more balanced annual reservoir enhances water availability by 38.8 m3/ha/ operation, supplying further resilience to year (when full restoration benefits have climate change impacts; materialized), resulting in an added 1,164 m3 • Less potential spill in dam operation; and of freshwater per ha restored over 30 years (Table 13). Reduced surface runoff ranges from • Better flow timing for irrigation system an average annual reduction of 64 m3 per ha under operation. Table 12: Changes in Hydrological Flows as a Result of Landscape Restoration Interventions, in m3/ha/year Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline Parameter Woodlot Orchard Mosaic Rotational Grazing Establishment Establishment % m3/ha/year % m3/ha/year % m3/ha/year % m3/ha/year Groundwater -4 -77 -3 -58 -26 -471 -57 -738 infiltration Lateral flow -4 -89 -3 -65 -28 -522 -58 -135 Surface runoff -77 -117 -69 -87 -91 -253 -91 -255 Soil moisture -6 -14 -4 -11 -31 -68 -62 -111 Evapotranspiration 6 299 5 225 25 1,314 24 1,237 Total water balance (% change inflow to -1.4 -297 -0.9 -221 -1.2 -1,315 -0.2 -1,239 Rogun) Total water balance – -8,905 -6,632 -39,442 -37,179 30 years (m3/ha) Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Evapotranspiration is fully considered as ‘lost’ water. Numbers may not add to 100%, due to aggregating numbers from the gridded GIS layer for the different components. 50 50 Lateral return flow is the portion of the streamflow that is sustained between precipitation events, fed to streams by delayed pathways, contrary to surface runoff. 52 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Table 13: Changes in Hydrological Flows as a Result of Landscape restoration Interventions, in m3/ha/year Baseline Baseline Baseline Baseline Parameter Unit Rotational Woodlot Orchard Mosaic Grazing Establishment Establishment Groundwater infiltration m3/ha/year 66.0 49.0 132.0 182.0 Lateral flow m3/ha/year 49.0 39.0 106.0 24.0 Surface runoff m3/ha/year -88.0 -64.0 -190.0 -165.0 Soil moisture m3/ha/year 11.1 9.3 22.0 32.5 Total water balancea m3/ha/year 38.8 32.9 70.0 72.6 Total water balance - m3/ha 1,164 987.0 2,100 2,179 30 years Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: a. When full benefits have kicked in after 15 years; Evapotranspiration is balanced out by the local microclimate. Numbers may not add to 100%, due to aggregating numbers from the gridded GIS layer for the different components. The four landscape restoration interventions of water, when used for irrigation, the present lead to changes in hydrological flows. On the value benefit of enhanced water availability for one hand, surface runoff is reduced in all the plants is in the order of US$43 per ha restored (or interventions. On the other hand, lateral return US$1.4 per ha per year) under mosaic restoration flow to streams increases under all landscape amounting to US$41.4 million in benefits over a restoration scenarios. The combined effect is 30-year time horizon under large-scale landscape a small reduction in actual water inflow into restoration (Table 14). In principle, reduced runoff Rogun and Nurek (due to more water available and enhanced lateral return flow will also allow and used by the plants). This effect, however, is for more balanced hydropower operation, but compensated for by the diversion from surface to assess how the timing of water inflow affects runoff to increased ground recharge and soil reservoir operation and flood risk was beyond the moisture. Considering the full economic cost scope of this study. Table 14: Present Value Benefit from Changes in Hydrological Flows Average per Discount Rate 30-Year Total per ha ha per Year Mosaic Mosaic Rotational r = 6.00% Units Woodlot Orchard Restoration Restoration Grazing Enhanced plant water m3/ha 28 853 599 1,540 1,598 availability Value of enhanced water US$/ha 1.4 43 39 58.6 60.8 availability 30-Year Total - Whole of Vakhsh Catchment Value of enhanced water US$/ha 41,395,688 33,709,637 10,828,937 1,965,194 availability Source: Original elaboration for this publication. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 53 Value of the Improved Carbon Balance the carbon sequestration potential of soils, but the in the Vakhsh River Basin emission reductions are significantly smaller in Landscape restoration is adopted by per hectare terms. The present value benefit from governments and practitioners across the emission reductions from an average hectare of globe to mitigate and adapt to climate change the mosaic landscape restoration scenario is in and restore ecological functions across the order of US$3,951 in terms of avoided global degraded landscapes (Bernal et al. 2018). climate-related damage costs and US$235 when The carbon balance models developed for this sold as verified credits on the voluntary carbon assessment show that woodlots and orchards market (Table 15). Mosaic restoration across the hold a significant carbon sequestration potential, whole Vakhsh River Basin will generate US$3.8 allowing for the sequestering of an added 35–317 billion worth of avoided damage costs, or US$227 tCO2-eq carbon emissions per ha over 30 years. The million of carbon credits, using a value of US$5 adoption of sustainable grazing can also enhance per tCO2-eq. Table 15: Present Value Benefit from Enhanced Carbon Sequestration Discount Rate Per ha per Year 30-Year Total per ha Rotational r = 6.00% Units Mosaic Mosaic Woodlot Orchard Grazing Enhanced carbon tCO2-eq/ha 3.2 97 35 317 296 sequestration Value of carbon US$/ha 8 235 84 771 720 credits Avoided SCC US$/ha 132 3,951 1,408 12,956 12,098 30-Year Total - Whole Watershed Value of carbon US$ 227,318,138 72,756,359 142,610,312 23,291,518 credits Avoided SCC US$ 3,819,232,613 1,222,398,972 2,396,033,862 391,326,992 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Figure 15 (panel a) shows the flow of benefits, (panel b), reflecting benefits to the global for the ecosystem service values that are society. Estimations of economic benefits from considered to best reflect the benefits to the reduced erosion and avoided dredging costs are Tajik society, as well as the maximum potential presented in Section 3.9. 54 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Figure 15: Economic Benefits from Reduced Erosion, Carbon Sequestration, and Enhanced Water Availability, per Year per ha under Mosaic Restoration 45 450 40 400 35 350 30 300 USD / ha / year USD / ha / year 25 250 20 200 15 150 10 100 5 50 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Reduced erosion - avoided dredging cost ($/ha) Reduced erosion - avoided dredging cost ($/ha) Enhanced water supply ($/ha) Enhanced water supply ($/ha) Value of carbon credits ($/ha) Avoided climatic damage costs ($/ha) Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Non-discounted, r = 0 percent, for illustration. 3.9 ECONOMIC VALUE TO LAND USERS AND Caritas under the IWSM III project, where farmers LOCAL COMMUNITIES - THE CASE FOR were able to earn US$1,740 per ha after orchard INVESTING IN LANDSCAPE RESTORATION establishment (a 190 percent increase) over a Net benefits to land users from woodlot and 6-year period. Tree planting alone generated orchard establishment, as well as sustainable income increases of 80 percent (increasing income pasture management through rotational grazing, to US$1,081 per ha) (Kassam 2022). are shown in Table 16 through to Table 21, for a 30- In terms of payoff, under a 6 percent discount year time horizon, using a discount rate of 6 percent. rate, it takes more than 6 years to recover the The financial returns and benefit-cost ratios expenses from orchard establishment (Table (BCRs) are within expected ranges for these 16). From the perspective of a capital-constrained kinds of landscape restoration interventions. (poor) farmer, this is significant and may help Overall, the highest net benefit may be enjoyed explain why this otherwise profitable activity does from the establishment of orchards, providing not spontaneously take place across landscapes as US$4.2 in benefits for every dollar invested, with extensively as one could expect51 and needs to be an NPV of US$61,000 per ha over a 30-year time encouraged through co-financing arrangements. horizon. The average annual net income from the The payoff period for woodlots is even longer (10 orchard establishment amounts to approximately years). Overall, however, they would supply US$3.3 US$2,000 per ha. This compares well with the of benefits for every US$1 that is invested and an results found from orchard establishment by average annual discounted net income of US$1,056 51 As an example, within the district of Tojikobod, an additional 2–3 ha of orchards are planted every year. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 55 per ha under a 30-year rotation. This figure is also woodlot establishment. Under JFM contracts, aligned with the incomes from tree planting, under they usually obtain a negotiated share (usually 50 the Caritas Programme (Kassam 2022). State percent) of the commodities produced. forest enterprises also stand to benefit from the Table 16: Financial CBA Results of Woodlot and Orchard Establishment Orchards Woodlots Orchard and Woodlots. T = 30 Years, r = 6% 30 Years 30 Years Internal rate of return (%) 6.0 10 Internal rate of return (%) 41% 22% BCR 4.2 3.3 NPV ‘20–30-year horizon’ (US$) 61,239 31,688 Average net benefit per year (US$/ha) ‘20–30-year horizon’ 2,041 1,056 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Out of the three landscape restoration woodlots (a couple of hectares) and therefore the interventions, sustainable rangeland mana- aggregate impact is more significant. 52 The BCR is gement generates the lowest financial returns 2.1 for a 30-year time horizon. This is aligned with with an NPV of US$45–78 per ha over a 30-year rotational grazing benefits seen in other semiarid time horizon pending on assumptions around environments (Myint and Westerberg 2015). Where fencing and herding costs (as discussed in more fencing costs are minimal, for example, because of detail in Annex 2). It should also be recalled that active use of herding, in distant mountain pastures, intervention areas are significantly larger (several Tajikistan pasture users stand to enjoy US$8.5 for hundred hectares of rangelands) than orchards and every dollar invested and a BCR of 3 (Table 17). Table 17: Financial CBA Results of Rotational Grazing Establishment - Probable Lower- and Upper-Range Costs Rotational Grazing. T = 30, r = 6% Upper-Range Costs Lower-Range Costs Payback period (years) 8.4 4.0 Internal rate of return (%) 19.0 0.5 BCR 2.1 10.5 NPV (US$) 45.0 78.0 Average net benefit per year (US$) 1.5 3.0 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 52 52 Pasture productivity increases between 20 percent and 50 percent within 5 years (Davlatov 2022b; Kassam 2022; Shuhratjon 2022) resulting in an average increase from 0.55 t/ha in the baseline to 0.68 t/ha under the rotational grazing (across the village, summer, and winter pastures). This value is calculated assuming hay valued at US$52.3 per ton (2022 prices) and an average annual present value cost of approximately US$2. Grazing areas are usually very large, so even US$3 more in net benefits per ha will result in significant livelihood benefits/avoided expenses on forage costs (as well as nutritional and health-related benefits from more biodiversity-rich pasture biomass). 56 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Economic Value to Land Users and Local and reduced ICs and MCs. Reduced costs may Communities - Sensitivity Analysis materialize as result of the economies of scale that are generated when restoration interventions Lower- and upper-bound values of net incomes scale across thousands of hectares. A 3 percent have also been estimated. Lower-bound estimates discount rate is realistic, if interventions benefit assume a cost of capital of 20 percent (aligned from grant or philanthropical funding and social with the real interest rate) and 20 percent lower impact investments. yields of timber, fuelwood, fruits, and nuts within orchards and woodlots—which could materialize The estimated net income for all the because of adverse climate change impacts. interventions, summarized in Table 18 to Table 21, prove that even if communities were to Considering new evidence on the benefits of bear all the costs themselves, their welfare rotational grazing in Tajikistan (Norton 2022), it is stands to be improved across all the landscape likely that enhanced forage productivity may kick restoration options, at a 6 percent discount in already as of the second year. It is also likely that rate. However, under the pessimistic scenario, investment costs will decrease over time, because only orchard establishment remains profitable. of significant innovation with virtual and mobile Rotational grazing is on the border line (generating fencing (Wooten 2020), alongside knowledge a loss of US$0.1). Under optimistic assumptions, take-up and mainstreaming of rotational grazing. the interventions generate substantial returns An assumption of low investment costs of US$8.1 with possible profits of US$3,390 per ha orchard per ha (Wang et al. 2018) is incorporated in the established. Mosaic restoration generates an optimistic ‘upper-bound’ welfare estimates for average annual added net income of US$535 rotational grazing. per ha of land. The flow of per hectare revenues Upper-bound estimates of the potential net and costs to land users under mosaic restoration benefits from woodlots and orchards are also is illustrated in Figure 16 (non-discounted for estimated, assuming a cost of capital of 3 percent illustration). Table 18: Summary of Present Value Benefits - Harvestable Provisioning Ecosystem Services - 30 Years Mosaic Rotational Woodlot Orchard Units Restoration Grazing Reforestation Establishment NPV US$/ha 8,145 45 32,033 61,239 @ r = 6% Average annual net benefit US$/ha/year 272 1.5 1,068 2,041 @ r = 6% Average annual net benefita US$/ha/year 5 to 535 -0.1 to 3.9 -12 to 2,207 233 to 3,339 Lower to upper bound* Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: a. From r = 3 percent to r = 20 percent and minimum and maximum ranges for possible ICs and yields . CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 57 Figure 16: Estimated Flow of Average per Hectare Revenues and Costs to Land Users under Mosaic Restoration 2000 Land user costs ($/ha) Land user benefits ($/ha) 1500 USD / ha / year 1000 500 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 -500 -1000 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Non-discounted for illustration. Woodlots are cut for timber at the end of the 30-year rotations, leading to revenues of US$50,000 in future value terms (beyond what is illustrated on the graph). 3.10 CBA OF PROPOSED LANDSCAPE the catchment, specifically hydrological and RESTORATION INTERVENTIONS erosion processes, of benefit to the Tajikistan society. Under mosaic restoration, estimated Considering first the business case for the benefits from reducing erosion loads within landscape restoration options, the interventions the reservoirs range from US$0.2 per ha of land generate a flow of income from timber, fuelwood, restored, when assessed in terms of enhanced fruits, nuts, and forage biomass, which results water storage capacity for irrigation water, to in an NPV of approximately US$31,700 per ha US$0.9 from avoided reservoir restoration cost woodlot, US$61,000 per ha of orchards, and and up to US$5.4 per ha of land restored when US$45 per ha of sustainably grazed rangeland, assessed in terms of avoided dredging costs. In a over a 30-year time horizon (Table 19). For every similar sense, the benefits from enhanced carbon dollar invested, land users stand to enjoy between sequestration range from US$8 per ha in terms of US$2.1 and US$4.2 of benefits over a 30-year time the value of carbon credits that can be generated horizon. If land users can capitalize on emission in the voluntary carbon market and up to US$132 reductions, they could earn an average added per ha restored in terms of the avoided social US$8 per ha per year under mosaic landscape damage cost from climate change. restoration, assuming a constant and modest carbon price of US$5 per tCO2-eq sequestered Mosaic landscape restoration supplies co-benefits (discounted at 6 percent). in the range of US$281 to US$4,388 per ha of land, pending on the perspective taken (Table 19). 53 The landscape restoration measures also alter wider ecosystem service flows within When accounting for these regulating 53 Of course, there is also underlying variation for each valuation parameter—with a range of possible dredging costs, carbon market prices, SCC estimates, shadow prices for water, as well as possible variations in output prices, input costs, and yields, that the farmer may experience. This assessment has used midrange and conservative estimates, to avoid any risks of overestimating net benefits. 58 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS ecosystem service co-benefits, in addition to costs, NPV is in the order of US$12,534 per ha land user benefits, the BCR to the Tajikistan restored over 30 years, or US$418 per ha per year. society is in the order of 3.6 (US$3.6 of benefits Comparing the different possible restoration provided for every US$1 invested) generating an interventions in terms of benefits and costs, NPV of US$8,582 per ha restored under mosaic sustainable pasture management supplies landscape restoration. In this scenario, the sales proportionally more benefits to the wider society value of carbon credits amounts to US$235 per ha, (societal BCR of 8.1) compared to the benefit enhanced freshwater supplies are worth US$43 that the pasture user enjoys himself (private per ha, while the sediment retention benefit, in BCR of 2.1). This is attributable to the fact that terms of avoided dredging costs54 generates a the per hectare investment costs are significantly benefit of US$162 per average ha of land restored. lower than those of orchards and woodlots, while The global society also stands to derive welfare regulating ecosystem services impacts are still of benefits from climate change mitigation significant magnitude. Of course, were investment provided by mosaic restoration efforts in costs to be co-financed, the land user can expect Tajikistan. Accounting for the avoided damage a higher BCR than 2.1. Table 19: NPV and BCR from Restoration Interventions and Individual Ecosystem Service Benefits Land Users Per Year per Provisioning Ecosystem Total per ha - 30 years ha Service Rotational 0% Unit Mosaic Mosaic Woodlots Orchards Grazing NTFPs, timber, Land user benefits US$/ha 381.0 11,426 86.0 45,853 80,182 fuel, and forage ICs and MCs US$/ha -109 -3,281 -41 -13,820 -18,943 Co-benefits Per year per Regulating Ecosystem Total per ha – 30 years ha Service Rotational Unit Mosaic Mosaic Woodlots Orchards grazing Reduced erosion m3/ha 4.4 132.4 87.6 288.8 100.1 Enhanced storage for US$/ha 0.2 5.4 4.2 15.0 6.7 irrigation Reservoir and hydropower Reservoir restoration US$/ha 0.9 27.0 21.2 75.0 33.6 cost Avoided reservoir US$/ha 5.4 162.0 127.0 449.0 202.0 dredging cost Carbon and Water availability (soil hydrological and ground water and m3/ha 35.0 1,051 779.0 1,968 1,963 ecosystem river flow) service Benefit of enhanced benefits US$/ha 1.4 43.0 39.0 59.0 61.0 water availability 54 Based 54 on the information available, it was impossible to confirm whether Rogun will have sufficient dead storage available when completed, to avoid any impingement on its live storage due to ongoing sedimentation, and hence whether the reservoir will need any sediment dredging activities during its lifespan. There was also no information regarding the potential need for future dredging to reduce the risk of any operational or dam safety issues caused by sediment build-up. Avoided dredging costs are arguably a better estimate of the true societal benefits of reduced erosion, in that the true cost of sedimentation (flood risks, risks to structural integrity, and balanced hydropower) are not reflected in reservoir restoration costs or the value of enhanced storage capacity. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 59 Table 19 Enhanced carbon tCO 2- Carbon and 3.2 96.7 34.5 317. 1 296.1 sequestration eq/ha hydrological ecosystem Voluntary carbon US$/ha 8.0 235.0 84.0 771.0 720.0 service market benefits Avoided SCC US$/ha 132.0 3,951 1,408 12,956 12,098 Total: hydrological, Present value 9 to 281 to 128 to 826 to 801 to sediment, and carbon benefits 146 4,388 1,559 13,772 13,094 Min to Max NPVs Per Year Total per ha - 30 Years Society per ha NPV US$/ha 269.0 8,080 45.0 31,690 61,240 Land user NPV BCR 3.5 3.5 2.1 3.3 4.2 Land users NPV 164 to -2 to -361 to 6,977 to NPV lower- to upper-bound US$/ha 5 to 537 estimates 16,020 117 66,202 101,644 NPV Tajikistan society US$/ha 286 8,582 294 33,312 62,221 - land user NPV + water + carbon BCR credits and avoided 3.6 3.6 8.1 3.4 4.3 dredging costs NPV Global society - land US$/ha 418.0 12,537 1,702 46,268 74,319 user NPV + Tajikistan BCR society + avoided   4.8 4.8 42.4 4.3 4.9 damage cost of carbon Global society lower 58 to 1,733 to 587 to 4,736 to 11,682 to NPV to upper bound 746 22,375 2,517 86,801 120,558 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Using a social discount rate of r = 6 percent, unless otherwise stated. Large-Scale Restoration across the flood risk, improved annual reservoir operation, Vakhsh Catchment reduced spills, and overall climate proofing of the Scaling up these interventions across nearly 1 dams. Estimating the value of such benefits is still million ha of land within the Vakhsh catchment a subject for future research. and summing up the full suite of benefits—from Enhanced carbon sequestration also leads to sediment reduction, water stewardship, climate avoided climate-related damage costs at the mitigation, and enhanced rural incomes— global level. When accounting for these, large- the large-scale mosaic restoration scenario scale mosaic landscape restoration generates generates a total NPV benefit of US$7.9 billion NPV to the ‘global society’ of US$12.1 billion for a over a 30-year time horizon to land users and 30-year time horizon, using a 6 percent discount US$8.3 billion to land users and the wider rate (US$4.8 of benefits for every dollar invested). Tajikistan society (Table 20). This is arguably a conservative estimate of the true benefits of Finally, it should be recalled that the mosaic landscape restoration. Other outstanding benefits landscape restoration scenario assumes that from landscape restoration that have not been part the land use area classified as grassland is of this assessment include reduced landslide and still exclusively used for pastoral activities and 60 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS that orchards and woodlots are in proximity to processes, or orchards as a source of livelihood irrigation infrastructure. This can be challenged, benefits, there is potential for even higher societal however, in that reforestation activities can also net benefits than those presented here if forest take place on pastureland. Thus, considering landscape restoration efforts were extended to the importance of woodlots in reducing erosion degraded pastures. Table 20: NPV and BCR of Large-Scale Restoration with the Vakhsh Catchment NPVs Whole Catchment - 30 Years Rotational Mosaic Woodlots Orchards Grazing NPV (US$) Land user - NTFPs, 7,810,426,455 38,668,550 5,860,390,636 1,980,893,399 BCR timber, fuel, and forage 3.5 2.1 3.3 4.2 Tajikistan society - NPV (US$) land user benefits + 8,235,617,711 255,291,638 6,096,845,544 2,012,671,614 water + carbon credits and avoided dredging BCR 3.6 8.1 3.4 4.3 costs NPV (US$) Global society - 12,054,850,324 1,477,690,610 8,492,879,406 2,403,998,607 land user benefits + Tajikistan society + BCR avoided damage cost 4.8 42.2 4.3 4.9 of carbon Total area in ha 966,616 751,360 182,909 32,347 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Overall, most landscape restoration benefits Sensitivity of the CBA Results to Changes are captured by individual land users. The good in the Discount Rate, Yields, and Cost news is that there is a business case among land Structures users—individual, family, or collective Dekhan The implication of potential variations in the cost farmers; state forest enterprises or PUUs; FUGs; of capital, ICs and MCs, and changes in yields on and groups of farmers that form common interest land users are discussed above and illustrated groups—to invest in landscape restoration. in Table 20. Rotational grazing and woodlot restoration interventions do not breakeven under Nevertheless, the wider society also stands to the most pessimistic assumptions (20 percent benefit as shown above. Added benefits  include discount rate and lower yields). However, from a potential reduction of the impacts of climate a global perspective, which incorporates the change and natural hazards in the Vakhsh positive externalities from reduced erosion, water catchment and in particular droughts, floods, cycling, and enhanced carbon sequestration, extreme temperatures, fires, and mass movements all the landscape restoration interventions stay (landslides and mudflows), all of which could lead profitable in the pessimistic scenario, generating to losses of lives, livelihoods, and biodiversity, as an NPV of US$1,730 per ha or US$58 per ha per well as damages to infrastructure (dams and roads). year under mosaic restoration. In the optimistic CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 61 scenario, characterized by a low cost of capital and mosaic landscape restoration approaches (3 percent) and economies of scale, the mosaic cannot be expected. The results underscore the restoration intervention generates an impressive importance of ensuring that land users have NPV benefit of US$22,375 per ha restored over a access to long-term capital credit at lower-than- 30-year time horizon (or US$746 per ha per year). market interest rates, to encourage investments in landscape restoration. Sensitivity of Results to Changes in the Discount Rate For the Tajik society, landscape restoration provides US$1.5 (under r = 20 percent) to US$3.6 Considering exclusively the sensitivity of results (under r = 6 percent) of benefits for every dollar to changes in interest rates, Table 21 and Table 22 show the full set of results under a 6 percent and invested. Figure 17 shows the annual net benefits 20 percent discount rate. The results prove that per hectare per year for the Tajik society, under even under a high lending rate of 20 percent, which mosaic landscape restoration, for different interest is closer to the lending rates faced by the private rates. The figure highlights that net benefits are sector, the NPV to land users for woodlots and overly sensitive to the discount rate and thus the orchards stays positive (generating net incomes of time value of money, since it takes a few years for US$30–350 per year), underscoring the business ecosystem service benefits to kick in. For example, case for investing in forest landscape restoration. at a 2 percent discount rate, mosaic landscape Considering however that land users bear all the restoration generates net benefits of more than risks, spontaneous adoption of rotational grazing US$600 per ha per year. Figure 17: Net benefits (in US$/ha/year) from Mosaic Landscape Restoration to the Tajikistan Economy for Different Discount Rates 1000 900 Net-benefits to Tajikistan 800 Land user net-benefits All other co-benefits Net-Benefit ($ / ha / year) 700 Co-benefits includes the value of 600 avoided erosion, carbon credits and enhanced water supply 500 400 300 200 100 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 Discount rate, r Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 62 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Table 21: Full CBA Result Display at 6% Interest Rate Discount Rate @6% Total per ha - 30 years Rotational Woodlot Orchard Unit Mosaic Grazing Reforestation Establishment Local Landuser benefits US$/ha US$11,361 US$86 US$45,508 US$80,182 communities Costs US$/ha -US$3,281 -US$41 -US$13,820 -US$18,943 Reduced Erosion m3/ha US$132 US$88 US$289 US$100 Enhanced storage for US$/ha US$5 US$4 US$15 US$7 Reservoir and irrigation hydropower Reservoir restoration cost US$/ha US$27 US$21 US$75 US$34 Avoided reservoir US$/ha US$162 US$127 US$449 US$202 dredging cost Water supply (groundwater, soil water, m3/ha 853 599 1540 1598 river Benefit of enhanced US$/ha US$43 US$39 US$58.6 US$60.8 Carbon and water supply hydrological Enhanced carbon tCO2-eq/ ESS benefits 97 35 317 296 sequestration ha Voluntary Carbon Market US$/ha US$235.2 US$83.8 US$771.1 US$720.1 Avoided Social Cost US$/ha US$3,951 US$1,408 US$12,956 US$12,098 of Carbon NPV Landuser - NTFPs, timber US$/ha US$8,080 US$45 US$31,688 US$61,239 BCR and forage biomass 3.5 2.1 3.3 4.2 Tajik society - landuser US$/ha US$8,520 US$294 US$32,967 US$62,221 NPV benefits + water + BCR carbon credits & avoided 3.6 8.1 3.4 4.3 dredging costs NPV Global society - Landuser US$/ha US$12,471 US$1,702 US$45,923 US$74,319 benefits + tajik BCR society + avoided damage 4.8 42.2 4.3 4.9 cost of carbon Discount Rate @6% Per Year per ha Rotational Woodlot Orchard Unit Mosaic Grazing Reforestation Establishment Local Landuser benefits US$/ha US$379 US$3 US$1,517 US$2,673 communities Costs US$/ha -US$109 -US$1 -US$461 -US$631 Reduced Erosion m /ha 3 US$4.4 US$2.9 US$9.6 US$3.3 Enhanced storage for US$/ha US$0.2 US$0.1 US$0.5 US$0.2 Reservoir and irrigation hydropower Reservoir restoration cost US$/ha US$0.9 US$0.7 US$2.5 US$1.1 Avoided reservoir US$/ha US$5.4 US$4.2 US$15.0 US$6.7 dredging cost Water supply (groundwater, Carbon and m3/ha 28 20 51 53 soil water, river hydrological ESS benefits Benefit of enhanced water US$/ha US$1.4 US$1.3 US$2.0 US$2.0 supply CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 63 Discount Rate @6% Per Year per ha Rotational Woodlot Orchard Unit Mosaic Grazing Reforestation Establishment Enhanced carbon tCO2- 3.2 1.1 10.6 9.9 sequestration eq/ha Carbon and hydrological Voluntary Carbon Market US$/ha US$8 US$2.8 US$25.7 US$24.0 ESS benefits Avoided Social Cost of US$/ha US$132 US$46.9 US$431.9 US$403.3 Carbon NPV Landuser - NTFPs, timber and US$/ha US$269 US$1.5 US$1,056 US$2,041 BCR forage biomass 3.5 2.1 3.3 4.2 Tajik society - landuser US$/ha US$284 US$10 US$1,099 US$2,074 NPV benefits + water + BCR carbon credits & avoided 3.6 8.1 3.4 4.3 dredging costs NPV Global society - Landuser US$/ha US$416 US$57 US$1,531 US$2,477 benefits + tajik society + BCR avoided damage cost of 4.8 42.2 4.3 4.9 carbon Discount Rate @6% Whole Watershed - 30 years Rotational Woodlot Orchard Unit Mosaic Grazing Reforestation Establishment Local Landuser benefits US$ -10,981,999,795 US$74,538,108 US$8,416,227,605 US$2,593,635,302 communities Costs US$ -US$3,171,573,340 -US$35,869,558 -US$2,555,836,969 -US$612,741,902 Reduced Erosion m3 127,984 830 76,026,188 53,405,914 3,236,722.1 Enhanced storage for US$ US$5,215,914 US$3,671,903 US$2,767,189 US$217,383 Reservoir and irrigation hydropower Reservoir restoration cost US$ US$26,079,572 US$18,359,515 US$13,835,943 US$1,086,917 Avoided reservoir dredging US$ US$156,477,430 US$110,157,093 US$83,015,658 US$6,521,504 cost Water supply (groundwater, m3 824868285 519790591 284872352 51697539 soil water, river Benefit of enhanced US$ US$41,395,688 US$33,709,637 US$10,828,937 US$1,965,194 water supply Carbon and hydrological Enhanced carbon tCO2-eq 93,477,822 30,378,912 58,644,249 9,577,944 ESS benefits sequestration Voluntary Carbon Market US$ US$227,318,138 US$72,756,359 US$142,610,312 US$23,291,518 Avoided Social Cost of US$ US$3,819,232,613 US$1,222,398,972 US$2,396,033,862 US$391,326,992 Carbon NPV Landuser - NTFPs, timber US$ US$7,810,426,455 US$38,668,550 US$5,860,390,636 US$1,980,893,399 BCR and forage biomass 3.5 2.1 3.3 4.2 Tajik society - landuser US$ US$8,235,617,711 US$255,291,638 US$6,096,845,544 US$2,012,671,614 NPV benefits + water + BCR carbon credits & avoided 3.6 8.1 3.4 4.3 dredging costs NPV Global society - Landuser US$ US$12,054,850,324 US$1,477,690,610 US$8,492,879,406 US$2,403,998,607 benefits + tajik BCR society + avoided damage 4.8 42.2 4.3 4.9 cost of carbon Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 64 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Table 22: Full CBA Result Display at 20% Interest Rate Discount Rate @20% Total per ha - 30 years Rotational Woodlot Orchard Unit Mosaic Grazing Reforestation Establishment Local Landuser benefits US$/ha US$1,895 US$26 US$6,726 US$17,993 communities Costs US$/ha -US$1,371 -US$28 -US$5,811 -US$7,458 Reduced Erosion m /ha 3 US$132 US$88 US$289 US$100 Enhanced storage for US$/ha US$1 US$1 US$4 US$2 Reservoir and irrigation hydropower Reservoir restoration cost US$/ha US$7 US$6 US$19 US$9 Avoided reservoir US$/ha US$42 US$37 US$117 US$52 dredging cost Water supply (groundwater, m3/ha 853 599 1540 1598 soil water, river Benefit of enhanced US$/ha US$12 US$12 US$12.9 US$13.4 water supply Carbon and hydrological Enhanced carbon tCO2-eq/ 97 35 317 296 ESS benefits sequestration ha Voluntary Carbon Market US$/ha US$96.3 US$34.3 US$315.8 US$294.9 Avoided Social Cost US$/ha US$1,419 US$506 US$4,652 US$4,344 of Carbon NPV Landuser - NTFPs, timber US$/ha US$524 -US$2 US$915 US$10,535 BCR and forage biomass 1.4 0.9 1.2 2.4 Tajik society - landuser US$/ha US$675 US$81 US$1,361 US$10,896 NPV benefits + water + carbon BCR credits & avoided dredging 1.5 3.9 1.2 2.5 costs NPV Global society - Landuser US$/ha US$2,094 US$587 US$6,013 US$15,240 benefits + tajik society + BCR avoided damage cost of 2.5 21.7 2.0 3.0 carbon Discount Rate @20% Per Year per ha Rotational Woodlot Orchard Unit Mosaic Grazing Reforestation Establishment Landuser benefits US$/ha US$1,895 US$26 US$6,726 US$17,993 Local communities Costs US$/ha -US$1,371 -US$28 -US$5,811 -US$7,458 Reduced Erosion m3/ha US$132 US$88 US$289 US$100 Enhanced storage for US$/ha US$1 US$1 US$4 US$2 Reservoir and irrigation hydropower Reservoir restoration cost US$/ha US$7 US$6 US$19 US$9 Avoided reservoir US$/ha US$42 US$37 US$117 US$52 dredging cost Water supply (groundwater, Carbon and m3/ha 853 599 1540 1598 soil water, river hydrological ESS benefits Benefit of enhanced water US$/ha US$12 US$12 US$12.9 US$13.4 supply CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 65 Discount Rate @20% Per Year per ha Rotational Woodlot Orchard Unit Mosaic Grazing Reforestation Establishment Enhanced carbon tCO2- 97 35 317 296 sequestration eq/ha Carbon and hydrological Voluntary Carbon Market US$/ha US$96.3 US$34.3 US$315.8 US$294.9 ESS benefits Avoided Social Cost of US$/ha US$1,419 US$506 US$4,652 US$4,344 Carbon NPV Landuser - NTFPs, timber US$/ha US$524 -US$2 US$915 US$10,535 BCR and forage biomass 1.4 0.9 1.2 2.4 Tajik society - landuser US$/ha US$675 US$81 US$1,361 US$10,896 NPV benefits + water + BCR carbon credits & avoided 1.5 3.9 1.2 2.5 dredging costs NPV Global society - Landuser US$/ha US$2,094 US$587 US$6,013 US$15,240 benefits + tajik BCR society + avoided damage 2.5 21.7 2.0 3.0 cost of carbon Discount Rate @20% Whole Watershed - 30 years Rotational Woodlot Orchard Unit Mosaic Grazing Reforestation Establishment Local Landuser benefits US$ US$1,832,096,373 US$22,910,809 US$1,243,903,445 US$582,014,785 communities Costs US$ -US$1,325,307,411 -US$24,568,104 -US$1,074,598,608 -US$241,237,511 Reduced Erosion m3 127,984,830 76,026,188 53,405,914 3,236,722.1 Enhanced storage for US$ US$1,357,733 US$1,062,730 US$720,316 US$56,586 Reservoir and irrigation hydropower Reservoir restoration cost US$ US$6,788,667 US$5,313,648 US$3,601,578 US$282,931 Avoided reservoir US$ US$40,732,002 US$31,881,889 US$21,609,468 US$1,697,586 dredging cost Water supply (groundwater, m3 824868285 519790591 284872352 51697539 soil water, river Benefit of enhanced water US$ US$11,925,926 US$10,173,233 US$2,388,930 US$433,534 supply Carbon and hydrological Enhanced carbon tCO2- 93,477,822 30,378,912 58,644,249 9,577,944 ESS benefits sequestration eq Voluntary Carbon Market US$ US$93,084,026 US$29,792,848 US$58,397,197 US$9,537,595 Avoided Social Cost of US$ US$1,371,342,883 US$438,917,526 US$860,325,703 US$140,510,815 Carbon NPV Landuser - NTFPs, timber US$ US$506,788,961 -US$1,657,295 US$169,304,837 US$340,777,274 BCR and forage biomass 1.4 0.9 1.2 2.4 Tajik society - landuser US$ US$652,530,916 US$70,190,674 US$251,700,432 US$352,445,988 NPV benefits + water + BCR carbon credits & avoided 1.5 3.9 1.2 2.5 dredging costs NPV Global society - Landuser US$ US$2,023,873,799 US$509,108,201 US$1,112,026,135 US$492,956,803 benefits + tajik society + BCR avoided damage cost of 2.5 21.7 2.0 3.0 carbon Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 66 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS 4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 4.1 CONCLUSIONS adapting capacity loss—to combat reservoir sedimentation. Successful management will Catchments are recognized as a critical typically combine multiple strategies (Morris form of green infrastructure that supplies a 2020). Catchment restoration also comes with flow of economic benefits (World Bank 2019). significant co-benefits to land users and wider Meanwhile, sedimentation is steadily depleting society, which have been analyzed as part of this reservoir storage capacity worldwide, threatening assessment. the reliability of water supplies, flood control, hydropower energy, and structural integrity It was found that mosaic landscape restoration of dams. In some cases, reservoirs filled with within the Vakhsh River Basin, combining sediment have not only impaired functions or orchards, woodlot rehabilitation, and rotational made useless the dam infrastructure but also grazing, reduces erosion by an average of 4.4 m3 posed safety hazards (California State Coastal per ha per year. The total sediment reduction, for Conservancy 2007; Kondolf et al. 2014; US the whole of the Vakhsh catchment, is in the order of 6.7 percent per year for the mosaic landscape Bureau of Reclamation 2006; Wang and Kondolf restoration scenario (an average reduction of 2014). Annandale (2013) estimated that global 92.4–86.2 million tons of sediment per year). This net reservoir storage has been declining from is a reasonable result as it must be kept in mind its peak of 4,200 km3 in 1995 because rates that the landscape restoration interventions are of sedimentation exceed rates of new storage only carried out in the more downstream portions construction. With increasing demands for water of the Vakhsh catchment. Most of the sediments storage, loss of capacity in reservoirs threatens are generated in the high elevation and steep slope the sustainability of water supply (Annandale areas where mostly bare soil is present. In addition, 2013). Thus, one can think of the sediments the hydrology of the Vakhsh is primarily influenced accumulating in reservoirs as ‘resources out of by snow and glacier melt, and the major sediment place’, because these same sediments can be generation must be attributed to these melting used productively on crops and rangelands and processes. This occurs in locations and during are also needed by the downstream river system a time when vegetation cover and grazing is not to keep its morphology and ecology. taking place. 55 Moreover, where degraded pastures Reducing sediment yield from the catchment are subject to reforestation efforts, sediment is one of several strategies available—along reduction benefits would be higher than those with routing sediment-laden flows; removing estimated here, due to the impact of reforestation deposited sediment following deposition and on root cohesion and soil stabilization. 55 Fieldobservations related to sediment sources in the Vakhsh River Basin (by UCA, Annex 1) also confirmed that the dominant sources of sediment to tributaries and the main stem of the Vakhsh River are derived from mass wasting, including shallow and deep landslide, debris flows that directly enter channels, and gully erosion (sometimes more than 100 m deep). Gully erosion is deep implying that mass wasting along the flanks contributes with far more sediment than surface erosion processes. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 67 In monetary terms, reduced erosion from year, or US$104 per ha per year in avoided climatic the mosaic landscape restoration scenario damage costs. The latter stands for benefits that translates into a present value benefit of are beneficial globally. Fourth, land users and rural US$5.4 per year per ha restored, using a communities stand to benefit significantly. The conservative avoided dredging cost of US$3 average annual net income increase, in present per m3 , for a 30-year time horizon, a 6 percent value terms, is in the order of US$2,041 per ha discount rate, and assuming it takes up to 15 for orchards and US$1,068 per ha for woodlot years for the full restoration benefits to kick in. establishment, supplying respectively US$4.2 and The present value benefit is in the order of US$0.9 US$3.3 of benefits for every dollar invested. per ha land restored land per year, in terms of the Enhanced biomass productivity from rotational avoided reservoir restoration cost. Arguably, this grazing provides between US$2 and US$8.5 of latter estimate, however, does not capture the benefits for every US$1 invested, pending on the benefits in terms of reduced mechanical wear and associated rotational grazing management and tear of turbines, improved flood control, and other investment cost. The per hectare net benefits are benefits, which result from removing sediments significantly lower though (US$1.5–3) than those from a reservoir with sedimentation issues (as of orchards, but pastures typically stretch over in the case of Nurek). If landscape restoration is much larger areas than woodlots and orchards and scaled to its maximum potential, within the Vakhsh need not be found close to settlements. Grazing River Basin, total present value benefits amount to and forest landscape restoration interventions can US$26 million in avoided reservoir restoration cost, therefore not be directly compared. Combining all or US$156 million, in terms of avoided dredging the marketable benefits of landscape management, costs over a 30-year period. value of reservoir capacity from water storage, Despite the construction of Rogun upstream of enhanced water yield, pasture biomass, timber Nurek, there will continue to be sediment inflow and NTFP, and sale of carbon credits, land users to Nurek, resulting in an added 50 million m3 of may enjoy an average of US$270 per ha per year sediment by 2050 under BAU practices. Large- under mosaic landscape restoration and the scale landscape restoration can reduce sediment wider society may enjoy US$285 per ha per year. inflow to Nurek by 11 million m3 . Second, landscape Scaling up these interventions to the maximum restoration also allows for enhancing the overall potential surface area of 966,616 ha (30 percent availability of water through enhanced plant of the Vakhsh catchment), the mosaic landscape evaporation, lateral return flow, groundwater, and restoration scenario provides US$8.3 billion in soil moisture, by 26 m3 (rotational gazing) to 66 m3 benefits in present value terms over a 30-year (woodlot establishment) per year per ha restored. time horizon. The BCR to the Tajikistan society, The present value benefit is about US$1.3 per including land users, is in the order of 3.6. These year per ha restored under the mosaic landscape are arguably very conservative estimates of the restoration scenario. Third, the implementation of true benefits, as they do not account for some sustainable and rotational grazing schemes, setting added benefits (such as enhanced drought and up orchard and woodlots in the mosaic landscape flood resilience and reduced landslide risk). restoration scenario, allows for increased carbon sequestration in the order of 3.2 tCO2-eq per year The results presented here echo those found per ha. The present value benefits in terms of in the Kali Gandaki catchment in Nepal (World potential sale of carbon credit are US$8 per ha per Bank 2019). At the US$500,000 budget level, 68 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS each US$1 invested yields US$4.38 in benefits. ha irrigated orchard. As an orchard requires The benefits there are driven largely by local approximately 8,000 m3 per ha of irrigation water, benefits and the value of avoided lives lost in the implicit cost of water is US$0.002 per m3 landslides, with the next highest beneficiary being against an estimated true economic cost of US$0.1 downstream hydropower. Together, the studies add per m3 . Volumetric pricing, closer to the full cost important contributions to the existing evidence of water, would encourage water conservation, base and mounting recognition that catchments reduced losses, and problems of salinization. This are a critical form of green infrastructure that would likely reduce water consumption, making supplies a flow of economic benefits (Annandale water available to a wider range of consumers et al. 2016). There are still arguments, however, and reducing waterlogging problems. Water use that the benefits of reducing sediment inflow to conservation efforts would greatly reduce costs reservoirs are not clearly shown. Kondolf et al. for the individual farmer and the public treasury, (2014), for example, point to the San Francisco- heavily subsidizing electricity for pump stations. based Pacific Gas & Electric Company, which The freed-up financial resources could then, for invested in catchment restoration and erosion example, be used to help farmers invest in land control projects in the catchment above their regeneration efforts, for example, by subsidizing dams, until concluding that, “other benefits key inputs (such as tree seedlings, drip irrigation aside, they could not justify the cost in terms of schemes, or mobile fencing options). Tax credits, reduced maintenance or greater generation at or exceptions for land taxes, conditional on their facilities” (Kondolf and Matthews 1993). This investments into sustainable land management, conclusion highlights an important aspect around may also be considered along with blended resource mobilization for landscape restoration. Notably, if landscape restoration is to be used finance options that can help make low interest as a strategy for reducing sedimentation of credit available to farmers. reservoirs, it is crucial that investment costs are From an economic perspective, the logic also shared among key beneficiaries—including land works the other way around: further degradation users themselves, but also water user unions, of the landscape, through deforestation or energy utilities, hydropower providers, and the overgrazing, imposes losses and costs on international community that stand to benefit society. A first approximation of the costs of land from climate change mitigation and greater water degradation can be inferred from the (forgone) food and energy security in Central Asia. Such benefits estimated here. For example, for every cost-sharing arrangements could help capital- hectare of rangeland that becomes moderately constrained risk-averse farmers overcome the degraded, the present value social damage costs long pay-off periods (in the order of 6–8 years) for from reduced carbon sequestration are US$1,408 the interventions considered here and make the over 30 years. Or for every hectare of woodlot that landscape restoration investment competitive, as is deforested, there is an increased present value a sediment management strategy for hydropower cost of erosion of US$450 for a 30-year period providers. (or US$15 per year) approximated by dredging Various instruments can be used to mobilize costs. The cost estimates should be taken as a finance for restoration interventions. Currently, lower bound. While soil restoration takes time, for example, irrigation water is underpriced. In losses in ecosystem services can be more abrupt. Tojikobod, farmers pay a flat fee of US$17 per The results can nevertheless be used as an entry CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 69 point to internalize environmental external costs, The proposed landscape restoration through taxation, fees, and fines. interventions are also beneficial for Nurek and Baipaza Dam, even after the completion Data were found to be consistent with there of the Rogun Reservoir. The results show being no single dominant spatial source that the catchment rehabilitation measures of sediment , and therefore, landscape downstream of Rogun reduce sediment input to remediation efforts can be directed to specific the two downstream reservoirs. In this regard, the sites or indeed to all sites without risk of Rogun–Nurek section can supply a test ground missing somewhere else in the catchment for assessing the contribution of landscape where anthropogenic inputs are overwhelming restoration to reduced sedimentation (post 2024 background ‘natural’ inputs. Research by Griffith when sediment transfer from Rogun is predicted University and results from the Integrated Model to be reduced to 30–40 percent). show there is no single dominant spatial source of sediment, and therefore, landscape remediation The potential increase in high-flow events as a efforts can be implemented with consideration to consequence of climate change is significant, other success factors, for example, where there considering that discharge that transports the is access to rural credit, enabling land tenure most bedload and sediment is linked to bank- regimes, and social acceptance and willingness full and higher discharges (Emmet and Wolman among communities to invest. Respective 2001). While assessing climate change impacts policies and legislation as well as tools could be has not been part of the study, increased reservoir implemented that supply access to affordable sedimentation under climate change scenarios credits and/or grants for investments that is likely and will reduce the economic lifetime of consider catchment rehabilitation actions. Nurek and Rogun, predicted to be over 100 years for Rogun (TEAS 2014). Due to the high uncertainties A catchment-wide landscape restoration and nonlinear relationship between climate, approach, such as regeneration by simply erosion, and sediment transport processes, only removing grazing pressure, for example, a qualitative estimate can be provided. However, can thus be implemented with the certainty from the results obtained, it can be inferred that that it will most definitely have a positive/ the proposed landscape restoration interventions beneficial effect. The assessment provided is supply a means for climate change adaptation and not a strict guide to favor specific landscape mitigation. restoration interventions over others, but rather, the proposed forest landscape restoration and The proposed restoration measures support sustainable grazing measures should be seen as soil and water conservation, and reduce flood complementary and to be implemented over time, peaks, by reducing runoff and increasing with the aim to address large areas of underused return flow to rivers. In this light, efforts to landscapes and abandoned unproductive land. attenuate siltation and fluctuations in overall An exception to this catchment-wide landscape water availability through landscape restoration management approach would be toward the and climate-resilient farming are well invested. management of active gullies and landslides for The Vakhsh catchment and its hydropower which landscape restoration measures should facilities will benefit from these, particularly include a mix of nature-based solutions and the under future climate change impacts. Beyond the use of a control system. benefits described, the planned interventions can 70 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS therefore also be seen as an effective measure however, a useful subject for future research. to support climate proofing of the agriculture, Overall, the hydrological benefits estimated in this forestry, hydropower, and water sectors in the assessment are conservative estimates of the true Vakhsh catchment. economic benefits from landscape restoration. The study has shown that large-scale mosaic Added impacts of natural disasters were landscape restoration in the Vakhsh catchment beyond the scope of this study to quantify, can supply NPV benefit to the Tajikistan including the potential impacts of climate society in the order of US$8.3 billion. There are change and an increase in natural hazards multiple other benefits, however, that could not be (droughts, floods, extreme temperatures, considered within the scope of this study and may and fires) which could lead to losses of lives, be the subject of future work. livelihoods, and biodiversity, as well as damages In terms of limitations to valuing the full suite of to infrastructure (dams and roads). Natural hydrological benefits, it is shown that runoff is disaster risks in Tajikistan are generally so severe decreased, which means that inflow is reduced that property, infrastructure, and assets cannot and irrigation systems downstream of the dams be repaired and replaced. World Bank (2020a) have less water available, under the assumption estimates the average total cost of replacing that dams do not spill. Whether the dams spill buildings and other infrastructure damaged by can be challenged 56 (AIIB 2017), especially in snow avalanches, mud flows, rock falls, and heavy the case of Nurek. Enhanced streamflow also floods to be in the order of US$25 million per year, implies that water can be released more timelier equivalent to 0.4 percent of Tajikistan’s GDP. for irrigation. In that case, there would be 4.2 POLICY AND TECHNICAL negligible impact on water availability along the RECOMMENDATIONS river downstream of the dams—annual reservoir operation through more lateral return flow. River The sections below present the list of flow into the reservoirs is therefore likely more recommendations from this study, divided as balanced, which has benefits for flood retention follows: (a) policy recommendations for decision and hydropower and overall resilience to climate makers, (b) technical recommendations for change impacts. While there is evidence of spills technicians and sector specialists, and (c) future from major reservoirs in Tajikistan (AIIB 2017), research needs that the report has identified. there was not enough information to estimate 4.2.1 Policy Recommendations the share of runoff that is spilled, at Nurek, or the expected or reduced spills when Rogun will • Develop a strategy to address landscape be completed. As a result, the economic loss in restoration along the Vakhsh River Basin. useable inflow may be overestimated (Chapter Developing a strategy will aid with land 3). Additionally, the benefits from reducing flood management in the Vakhsh River Basin while peaks and ensuring more balanced reservoir also serving as a basis for future strategies for retention (due to reduced runoff) have not been other projects. Such a strategy should include valued as part of this assignment. They are still, a wider developmental vision for the areas 56 According to AIIB (2017), HPP power generation is very dependent on water flows in Tajikistan’s major rivers, which decline sharply in cold winter months when water flow is low. On the other hand, the Tajikistan power system generates excess power in summer because of high water flows, and while some power is exported to Afghanistan and the Kyrgyz Republic, water is frequently spilled from reservoirs. https://www.aiib.org/en/projects/approved/2017/_ download/tajikistan/document/document _nurek-hydropower-rehabilitation-project.pdf. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 71 surrounding the Vakhsh River Basin while • Identify the fiscal policies and green finance also addressing policies, economic measures, needed to implement the proposed restoration data, and technical capabilities needed for interventions and to scale up restoration landscape restoration to succeed. finance for future projects. Considering the significant pay-off period, especially for farmers, • Mainstream and implement sustainable co-financing arrangements such as public- grazing and landscape restoration measures private partnerships (PPPs) may be necessary into respective policies and legislation, to scale up restoration efforts and attract public at the local and national levels. Examples and private capital into restoration. at the national level are design manuals for non-rotational grazing; requirements for • PES schemes should be designed and compensation measures; requirements for implemented to protect and restore the consideration of erosion prevention measures; upper part of the Vakhsh River Basin, to and broader aspects such as no-grazing control the stock and flow of the sediment buffering zones along riverbanks, active more effectively and ultimately regulate the natural hazard zones, and roads. quantity of eroded sediment reaching the stream network and the catchment’s water • Establish closer coordination and planning quality and quantity. with local authorities and farmers to identify what landscape restoration intervention • Repurpose existing inefficient policies and will work best for their communities. subsidies within agriculture and irrigation Through discussions with local stakeholders, toward incentives for landscape restoration, this report has identified several landscape green infrastructure, and nature-based restoration interventions and has highlighted solutions. Reshaping inefficient subsidies their economic benefits. The choice of in water irrigation and agriculture can open landscape restoration is dependent on the opportunities for investments in landscape local context, and more cooperation between restoration to increase resilience of central and local governments is therefore key. infrastructure, people, and ecosystems in the Examples of such coordination mechanisms Vakhsh River Basin. could include councils, commissions, and The agriculture, forestry, energy, and water inter-local administration cooperatives for sectors within the Vakhsh catchment can coordinating landscape restoration activities use this valuation method to make a case for across communities. why landscape restoration and watershed • Landscape restoration and sustainable management programs are good investments sediment monitoring and management for the development of the Vakhsh River Basin, as approach should be integrated into the well as for the rest of the country. Understanding design, implementation, and operation and quantifying the benefits for different sectors phases of the Tajikistan hydropower sector. enables the design of more efficient and robust Using this report and the Vakhsh River Basin PES schemes, financing arrangements, and payment structures and can use investment from as a best practice, these aspects should be multiple stakeholders. integrated and implemented into the growing and crucial hydropower sector in Tajikistan to The developed tools also have relevance for sustainably manage water resources. ESF, by supplying a data-driven and systematic 72 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS way to incorporate impacts on ecosystem services results of this study supply useful information and livelihoods into the project’s environmental for the environmental and social assessment and social management plans and to show processes for Rogun Dam construction as part opportunities to avoid, reduce, and mitigate these of the implementation of the World Bank’s ESF. impacts. This would enable decision makers to • It is recommended to include in future work develop priorities based on the cost and benefits of the assessment of the potential adverse investments and the impact of the environmental impacts of soil erosion and sedimentation externalities on these investments and move on water quality for the Vakhsh River Basin, toward green infrastructure. using a combination of global studies and 4.2.2 Technical Recommendations tools (that is, WaterWorld tool57) and field measures to estimate upstream–downstream • It is recommended to set up a bathymetric links and surface water and groundwater survey program for the reservoirs in the quality impacts. This work would allow for Vakhsh River Basin, to regularly measure including additional benefits of landscape sediment build-up and monitor trends against restoration into the CBA results and inform the first predictions. The rate of sedimentation is environmental and social assessment of the critical information for the entire life cycle of Vakhsh River Basin and Rogun. hydropower and water storage reservoirs, from design to decommissioning. While sediment • It is recommended that any efforts to models can be useful for undertaking projections regenerate landscapes are accompanied and simulation scenarios, real data are essential with capacity building in climate change for planning any type of interventions. adaptation strategies among water user • A climate change impact assessment for associations, PUUs, and FUGs to emphasize the Vakhsh River Basin and hydropower the importance of landscape restoration as an cascade is recommended in the future. The adaptive measure and prepare the communities assessment, which can further underpin the for the expected future conditions. values of green infrastructure for increasing The hydropower sector can benefit from the climate resilience and sectoral adaptation, valuation and prioritization methodologies should include an assessment of the impacts developed for this study to design interventions of climate change on soil erosion and reservoir and PES schemes that more effectively control sedimentation rates. As climate change affects sediment from watersheds. Application of the the hydrological and ecological system in a sediment modeling and prioritization tools can complex spatio-temporal cause-effect chain, inform the design of watershed management particularly in snow and glacier-dominated programs to reduce sediment and improve soil and regions, quantitative causes of the changes water quality/quantity, by targeting interventions to cannot be drawn without a detailed climate the best places to achieve outcomes and balancing change impact assessment. trade-offs, thereby making such programs more • It is recommended to prepare catchment- cost-effective and transparent. Where policy scale strategic environmental and social mechanisms exist that require revenue sharing from assessment of the Vakhsh River Basin. The HPPs, the sediment budget and prioritization tools 57 https://www.policysupport.org/waterworld. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 73 can be used to find priority areas for investment closer to tributary junctions to reduce the that promotes rural development (satisfying the influence of catchment contributions sourced motivation for why such policies often exist) from the region between the upstream samples while simultaneously reducing sediment-induced and the downstream sample. impacts on O&M of hydropower facilities within The ideal way to thus approach the assessment the Vakhsh catchment. of ongoing erosion and/or the impact of Landscape restoration along with other remediation is by direct monitoring at a smaller regenerative farming practices, however, scale. For example, any landscape restoration offers a strategy for the Tajikistan farming works should be accompanied by paired catchment sector to reduce its dependency on irrigated type studies (for example, similar catchments croplands as a source of income, with further with a control and different treatments) that positive knock-on effects in terms of more employ a ‘multiple lines of evidence’ approach drought-resilient farming systems and the savings to the assessment of the changes brought about that are generated from running the irrigation and by landscape restoration efforts. This might be drainage network. These added benefits have not based on repeat terrestrial or airborne Lidar been estimated as part of this assessment and combined with water quality (that is, sediment could be considered in future work. concentration) monitoring, erosion plots and erosion pins, and so on. It was found that sources 4.2.3 Future Research Needs appear evenly distributed in the landscape and it The erosion and hydrology simulations are should therefore not be difficult to find paired sub- subject to significant uncertainties, given the catchments. data availability and lack of information on The use of higher-resolution mapping and sediment sources and budgets. Therefore, while monitoring of active gullies would allow to qualitatively the results are robust, field validation check the feasibility of the measures in the of the estimated sediment budgets (for example, locations where gully erosion is the most through sediment fingerprinting) and expected severe. The erosion and hydrology simulations impacts of the interventions is needed. For undertaken in this study are subject to significant instance, most of the overall sediment reduction uncertainties, given the data availability and is considered to occur due to the impacts of the lack of precise information on sediment sources interventions on gully erosion. It would therefore and budgets. Therefore, while qualitatively the be beneficial to check the feasibility and realistic results are robust, field validation of the estimated implementation of the measures in the locations sediment budgets and expected impacts of the where gully erosion is the most severe. interventions is recommended. For instance, most During the undertaking of the geochemical of the overall sediment reduction is considered tracing in the Vakhsh River Basin, elemental to occur due to the impacts of the interventions concentration ratios were often found to be on gully erosion. Further assessments are also near unity across tributary junctions, reducing advisable to compare the study results with the discriminatory power of the geochemical the indicators of suitability for restoration, benefit ‘fingerprints.’ Future studies may need to be indicators such as the potential to generate jobs, restricted to more localized studies near distinct and other key metrics provided by open-source geological boundaries, with samples collected tools such as se.plan. 58 58 https://docs.sepal.io/en/latest/modules/dwn/seplan.html. 74 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS As climate change affects the hydrological change impact assessment. 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Xenarios, S., Murodbek Laldjebaev, and Ronan Shenhav. 2021. “Agricultural Water and Energy Management in Tajikistan: A New Opportunity.” International Journal of Water Resources Development 37 (1): 118–136. DOI:10.1080/07900627.2019.1642185. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/0790062 7.2019.1642185. Young, R. A. 1996. Measuring Economic Benefits for Water Investments and Policies WTP 338 . Washington, D.C.: World Bank. 88 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS ANNEX 1. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEDIMENT SOURCING AND EROSION ANALYSIS A1.1 INTERVENTION IMPACTS ON highest reductions. Downstream sub-catchments SHEET AND RILL EROSION are subject to the most significant changes. The Figure A1.1 shows the spatial distribution of sheet rotational grazing scenario (S2) affects larger areas and rill erosion for the baseline and the four scenario than woodlots (S3) whose effects are more localized. interventions. The mosaic scenario leads to the Limited effect can be seen for the S4 scenario. Figure A1.1: Sheet and Rill Erosion for the Baseline and Interventions 69o0’ 70o0’ 71o0’ 72o0’ 73o0’ 69o0’ 70o0’ 71o0’ 72o0’ 73o0’ 39o30’ 39o30’ Baseline S1 minus 39o0’ 39o0’ Baseline 38o30’ 38o30’ S2 minus S3 minus Baseline Baseline Erosion [t/ha/yr] Difference [t/ha/yr] 0.0 75.0 <= -80.0 -15.0 – -10.0 S4 minus 0.1 100.0 -80.0 – -70.0 -10.0 – -7.5 Baseline 5.0 200.0 -70.0 – -60.0 -7.5 – -5.0 10.0 300.0 -60.0 – -50.0 -5.0 – -3.0 20.0 400.0 -50.0 – -40.0 -3.0 – -1.0 30.0 500.0 -40.0 – -30.0 -1.0 – -0.2 40.0 590.0 -30.0 – -20.0 -0.1 0 50 100 km 50.0 -20.0 – -15.0 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 89 A1.2 INTERVENTION IMPACTS ON attributed to the implementation of the woodlots LANDSLIDE RISK (S3). The increase in root cohesion due to the trees has a significant impact on landslide risk. As the Figure A1.2 shows the spatial distribution of landslide risk for the baseline and the four scenario woodlots have tighter tree spacing than orchards interventions. The black areas are locations where (S4), they have a greater impact on soil cohesion. the simulation shows that individual slope cells Moreover, the criteria for suitable sites for woodlots fail within a 10-year period (areas > 1, which is was areas with lower soil stability, which also equal to 100 percent risk). Those are rarely found leads to the more pronounced benefits relevant near settlements, where the risk within the 10- to orchards which favored lower slope angles year period is mostly considered lower than 1. The between 0 and 30 percent. Overall, the rotational interventions did not reduce the sediment input grazing (S2) and orchards scenarios have limited from landslides but reduced landslide risk, also effectivity due to the minimal impact on root near settlements. Again, the mosaic scenario (S1) cohesion and very localized implementation of the shows the highest risk reduction, which can be orchards, respectively. Figure A1.2: Landslide Risk for the Baseline and Interventions 69o0’ 70o0’ 71o0’ 72o0’ 73o0’ 69o0’ 70o0’ 71o0’ 72o0’ 73o0’ 39o30’ 39o30’ Baseline S1 minus 39o0’ 39o0’ Baseline 38o30’ 38o30’ S2 minus S3 minus Baseline Baseline Landslide Cell Fail Difference in Probability [-] Probability [-] S4 minus Baseline <= 0.01 0.60 – 0.70 0 0.01 – 0.05 0.70 – 0.80 0.05 – 0.25 0.80 – 0.90 -0.88 0.25 – 0.50 0.90 – 1.00 0 50 100 km 0.50 – 0.60 > 1.00 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 90 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS A1.3 INTERVENTION IMPACTS ON (S3) are the most effective in rehabilitating the GULLY EROSION gullies and reducing the headcut advancement Figure A1.3 shows the spatial distribution of gully of the gullies. In some catchments, reductions erosion for the baseline and the four scenario of up to 50 percent are possible. If orchards interventions. The mosaic scenario leads to the were placed in gullies, the trees could stabilize highest reductions. Downstream sub-catchments and reduce headcut advancement; however, the are subject to the most significant changes. The feasibility and access to these areas would have rotational grazing scenario (S2) and woodlots to be assessed case by case. Figure A1.3: Gully Erosion for the Baseline and Interventions 69o0’ 70o0’ 71o0’ 72o0’ 73o0’ 69o0’ 70o0’ 71o0’ 72o0’ 73o0’ 39o30’ 39o30’ Baseline S1 minus 39o0’ 39o0’ Baseline 38o30’ 38o30’ S2 minus S3 minus Baseline Baseline Erosion [t/ha/yr] Difference [t/ha/yr 0.04 – 0.69 -47.08 – -8.88 0.69 – 2.31 -8.88 – -2.01 S4 minus 2.31 – 4.61 -2.01 – -0.9 Baseline 4.61 – 7.94 -0.9 – -0.43 7.94 – 13.41 -0.43 – -0.14 13.41 – 19.24 -0.14 – -0.06 19.24 – 27.08 -0.06 – -0.01 0 50 100 km 27.08 – 70.67 -0.01 – 0 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 91 Table A1.1: Erosion Sources and Sediment Reduction Potential between Rogun and Nurek Erosion Sources Sediment Reduction Potential for between (m3/year) Proposed Measures All All Sheet and Sources Proposed All sources Channel Gully Landslide Screes Sources Rill (m3/ha/ Measure (m3/year) year) 442,309 204,168 155,481 9,938 51,100 28,879 — — Baseline Combined 360,650 203,838 79,339 9,854 51,100 23,621 82,228 1.51 (mosaic) 384,760 204,023 98,728 9,880 51,100 28,180 57,550 1.23 Rotational grazing Woodlot 405,625 204,050 122,649 9,899 51,100 25,162 36,684 3.48 reforestation Orchards 429,118 204,041 143,496 9,935 51,100 27,802 13,192 1.94 establishment Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 92 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS ANNEX 2. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON METHODOLOGY FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS A2.1 PARAMETERIZATION OF SCENARIO INTERVENTIONS Table A2.1 shows a summary of the parameterization for the different models and the respective intervention compared to the baseline. Table A2.1: Parameterization of Scenario Interventions in the Models Scenario Intervention SWAT Gully Model Landslide Model CN2 Hydrol. Root Cover Factor USLE-P Root Cohesion Soil Group C (RCF) [-] [kPa] [-] [-] BL Int BL Int BL Int BL Int Grazing winter 79 74 1 0.8 0 0.5 0 1 Grazing summer 83 77 1 0.8 0 0.5 0 1 Grazing autumn 81 76 1 0.8 0 0.5 0 1 Grazing all year 86 79 1 0.8 0 0.5 0 1 Woodlots a 70 a 0 a 1.4 a 14 Orchards a 72 a 0 a 1.2 a 11 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: BL = Baseline; Int = Intervention; a. Varies by initial land use. A2.2 ASSUMPTIONS USED TO MODEL the erosive force instead of rainfall as the original EROSION TYPES IN THE INTEGRATED USLE/RUSLE approach. This has two advantages: EROSION AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT it implicitly considers the delivery ratio of the eroded MODEL sediment to the streams since sediment delivery occurs only if surface runoff reaches the streams Sheet and Rill Erosion and surface runoff originating from snowmelt and SWAT uses the MUSLE (Williams 1995) to simulate glacier melt has an erosive force which makes it sheet and rill erosion on agricultural fields, possible to consider this process in SWAT. The degraded pasture, and bare areas and on gentle MUSLE needs land use, soil, and topographic input slopes. The MUSLE considers surface runoff as data and catchment management information CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 93 and is dynamically linked to SWAT’s hydrological are considered well suited to depict landslide algorithms that calculate surface runoff. Sheet and processes in the Vakhsh catchment. The model rill erosion is calculated for each computational calculates the landslide processes on a 30 m unit in SWAT, a unique combination of soil, slope, by 30 m grid. First, a spatially varying factor of and land use within each of the 83 hydrological safety based on soil properties and slope is used sub-catchments in the Vakhsh River. to find cells that can potentially reach failure and therefore can trigger a landslide. These cells are Gully Erosion further processed by grouping those to landslide Gullies are considered a significant sediment objects according to their spatial connection. source in the Vakhsh River (Sidle et al. 2019). All cells within the connected landslide are then Numerous approaches exist to model gully evaluated if they fail under certain soil moisture occurrence, advancement, and the resulting conditions—the ‘threshold moisture’ which is sediment input to streams (Vanmaercke et al. obtained from the SWAT model. The amount of 2021). To calculate sediment input into the streams sediment mobilized in a landslide will not fully from gullies, the locations of gullies are estimated reach the streams. Larger landslides will have according to a simple relationship developed by longer runout lengths than smaller landslides. Meliho, Khattabi, and Mhammdi (2018) who found Therefore, for each landslide object, the runout that barren and sparse vegetation with slope length is calculated and the part of sediment gradients above 50 percent were very susceptible reaching the streams (the delivery ratio) is to gully erosion. The SWAT computational units calculated. that match these conditions are selected as prone to gully erosion. Further, for each of these pre- Screes selected units, gully erosion is simulated according Screes can contribute significant amounts of to the model described in Allen et al. (2017). They sediment when found sufficiently close to streams. developed an empirical relationship of the daily They occur on slopes that exceed the internal gully headcut advancement and the associated friction angle of non-cohesive soils, which is in the generated sediment which can be linked to SWAT. range of 38–42°. From these slopes, sediments roll The model requires information on soil properties, down and can enter the stream channels. Imaizumi vegetation characteristics, gully geometry, and et al. (2015) have estimated that slopes susceptible surface runoff, which is again calculated from to screes contribute sediments between 20 and SWAT. The model then calculates a time series 25 t per ha per year. These dependencies are used of daily sediment loss in case overland flow was to model scree input on a 30 m by 30 m grid where generated on that day from each computational all cells that exceed a slope of 38° and are within a unit prone to gully erosion. downslope vicinity of 1,500 m to streams contribute 22.5 t per ha per year of delivered sediment to the Landslides streams. The landslide model approach used for the application in the Vakhsh River Basin is based on Sediment Transport in River and Fluvial Erosion World Bank (2019) and Wu and Sidle (1995), which describe a model of connected hillslope stability The previously described sediments from the in detail. The models use typical equations that four erosion processes are entering the stream are often used to assess hillslope stability and network at various locations within the Vakhsh 94 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS catchment. Depending on the amount of sediment on the sub-basin scale. Sediment that leaves one and its spatio-temporal distribution, sediment stream section is entering the next downstream transport, deposition, or added fluvial erosion section until the sediments are routed through occurs within the stream network. If the sediment the entire network. Results of the in-stream in the water column is lower than the transport sediment transport are therefore available for capacity and erodible sediment is present in the each stream section within the 83 hydrological stream, channel erosion occurs. If the sediment sub-catchments. At the Rogun Dam’s location, exceeds the transport capacity, sediment is the Vakhsh River drains into the dam, thus there deposited. This complex process is simulated by is an accumulation of all upstream erosion and SWAT’s in-stream sediment transport algorithms sediment transport processes. A2.3 CRITERIA FOR MAPPING LANDSCAPE RESTORATION LOCATION Table A2.2: Main Variables Used to Parameterize the Landscape and SWAT Modeling and Define the Location of the Landscape Restoration Interventions Orchards Woodlots Grazing • Grassland • Cropland • Cropland • Mosaic cropland (>50%)/ • Mosaic cropland • Mosaic cropland (>50%)/ natural vegetation (tree, (>50%)/natural shrub, and herbaceous natural vegetation (tree, vegetation (tree, shrub, cover) (<50%) Land uses that are shrub, and herbaceous and herbaceous cover) assumed feasible cover) (<50%) (<50%) • Mosaic natural vegetation for each landscape • Mosaic natural vegetation (tree, shrub, and herbaceous restoration option • Mosaic natural cover) (>50%)/cropland (tree, shrub, and vegetation (tree, shrub, (<50%) herbaceous cover) (>50%)/ and herbaceous cover) (>50%)/cropland (<50%) • Herbaceous cover cropland (<50%) • Herbaceous cover. • Urban areas (used for • Herbaceous cover. village pastures). All year: Village < 0.8 km Distance from village/ Winter: 0.8–1.8 km Village < 1.5 km Roads < 1.5 km roads Spring/fall: 1.8–30 km Summer: 0–600 km All year: Village < 2000 m Winter: < 2,000 m Altitude Altitude < 2,800 m Altitude < 2,800 m Spring/fall: < 2,000 m Summer: 2,000–3,400 m Soil moisture threshold Soil moisture 0–2.5 from SWAT Sidle, based on Sidle (1988) Slope Slopes 0–30% No slope criteria No slope criteria Source: Original elaboration for this publication. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 95 Table A2.3: Hectares for Each Landscape Restoration Scenario Scenario Whole Catchment (ha) Total mosaic 966,616 Mosaic - rotational grazing 751,360 Mosaic scenario Mosaic - woodlots 182,909 Mosaic - orchards 32,347 Rotational grazing 867,969 Individual scenarios Woodlots 184,939 Orchards 32,347 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Total catchment area is 3,125,291 ha. A2.4 RANGELAND BIOMASS PRODUCTIVITY FOR DIFFERENT DEGRADATION LEVELS Table A2.4: Biomass Productivity in BAU and Rotational Grazing Scenarios, Assumed Grazing Period, and Regeneration Time Baseline - Sustainable Pasture Grazing Biomass Degradation Biomass (t Management - Biomass Period Regeneration Time Status, Baseline DM/ha)59 (t DM/ha) (Days) (Years) Winter Moderately 0.6 0.72 150 5 (20% increase) degraded Spring/fall Moderately 0.6 0.72 120 5 (20% increase) degraded Summer Low degradation 0.7 0.84 90 5 (20% increase) All year Severely degraded 0.3 0.45 360 5 (50% increase) Average across all   0.5 0.68 5 pastures Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 59 Pasture experts in World Bank (2020a) estimated that the total amount of hay that can be harvested from undegraded pastureland is about 1.1 ton/ha. 96 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS A2.5 DATA INPUTS FOR THE CASH FLOW ANALYSIS OF THE RESTORATION INTERVENTIONS Table A2.5: Rotational Grazing ICs, from Literature and Field Visits in Tojikobod US$/ha Comment Source Rotational grazing - international (low) 8.1 New fencing Wang et al. 2018 New fencing, water systems, Undersander et al. Rotational grazing - international (high) 112.3 first year 2002 Traditional fencing with mesh Rotational grazing - Tajikistan 10–120 wire (low cost), traditional Davlatov 2022b (mixed experiences) fencing (higher cost) Rotational grazing and village 30.0a Fences replaced every 5 to 6 years Davlatov 2022b pastures (reasonable average) Rotational grazing, use of herding, 20.0a In the first year Davlatov 2022b and pasture management plans Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: a. Assumptions that have been used in the CBA. Table A2.6: Assumptions on Yields, Prices, and Tree Densities for Orchards Used in the CBA Analysis Typical Situation in a Years to Yield (Nuts, Fruits in kg/Tree and or Dry In Year Trees per ha Pure Orchard Harvest Wood kg/ha) (kg/Tree) Walnuts 5 40 kg per tree 10 100 Apples 4 100 kg per tree 10 400 Years to Yield (Nuts, Fruits in kg/Tree and or Dry Mixed orchard (50/50) In Year Trees per ha Harvest Wood kg/ha) (kg/Tree) Walnuts 5 40 kg per tree 10 200 Apples 4 100 kg per tree 10 50 Fuelwood 60 m3 per ha 20 Price TJS/kg US$/kg Walnut price 16.5 1.5 Apple price 4.5 0.4 Apricots/all fruits in Tajikistan (average) 10.0 0.9 TJS/m3 US$/m3 Fuelwood 104 9.3 Timber 3,800 338.2 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 97 Table A2.7: Investment and Management Costs of Orchards Investment Costs Number TJS US$ Source Apple and walnut seedling cost 10 0.9 Kassam 2022 Wire with poles (per m) 30 2.7 Kassam 2022 Meters of wire for a 2 ha orchard 600 Kassam 2022 Meters of wire per ha 300 Derived Scrub cost (per scrub) (1 scrub per m) 15 1.34 Kassam 2022 Total shrubs per 1 ha orchard 300 Derived Total wire and shrub costs 13,500 1,201.5 Derived Total seedling cost per ha 2,500 222.5 Derived Drip irrigation system per ha 200 USAID 2020 Total IC per ha 1,624 Derived Annual maintenance cost TJS US$ Source Thinning, pruning, and fruit and nut harvesting cost per ha 8,000 712 Davlatov 2022a Annual orchard irrigation cost per ha60 190 17 Davlatov 2022b Harvesting cost at peak harvest per day 130 11.6 Davlatov 2022b Yearly harvesting cost (55 days) 7,150 636.35 Derived Transportation cost (per 2,000 kg) 100 9 Davlatov 2022b Transportation cost per kg 0.05 0.00445 Derived Transportation cost per ha per year at peak harvesta 1,123 100 Derived Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: a. 2,000 kg of walnuts and 20,000 kg of apples. Table A2.8: Timber and NTFP Yields from Woodlots Years to Nuts-Fruits Trees per Typical Woodlot (400 Trees per ha) Years after Planting Harvest (kg/Tree) ha Apricots 4 70 10 100 Walnuts 5 20 10 100 Dog rose and other trees used for timber 200 Yield m3/ha As of Year How Often Sustainable fuelwood harvest (m3) 30 5 Annually Timber harvest - short rotationa 100 14 One-off, at the end of the rotation Timber harvest - long rotation 150 30 One-off, at the end of the rotation Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: a. From the Tojikobod field visit (Davlatov 2022a). 60 Irrigation costs vary according to the crop under consideration. For example, in Tojikobod, farmers pay TJS 200 per year for cotton, TJS 130 per year for potato, and TJS 190 per year for orchards. They purchase water from the water user association and the water department and pay a flat fee. There is thus no direct link between what the farmer pays and how much he/she uses . 98 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Table A2.9: Implementation, Management, Harvesting, and Opportunity Cost of Woodlot Establishment Costs Comment Value per ha (US$/ha) Average biomass productivity of 0.55 Opportunity cost (degraded pasture) 28.8 ton/ha selling at US$52.3/ton Total first year IC (drip irrigation, small 2,491.5 excavator, wire, shrub, and seedling cost) Annual maintenance and NTFP harvesting Half that of orchards costs (NTFP harvesting costs, thinning, 363 (Davlatov 2022b), see Table A2.6 pruning, and pesticides) Woodlot establishment costs, irrigation costs, Like those of orchards See Table A2.6 fencing establishment (Kassam, 2022) Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Figure A2.1: Flow of per Hectare (Non-Discounted) Revenue Streams from Timber, Fuelwood, Fruits, and Nuts Harvests from Woodlots and Orchards 9000 7000 5000 $ / ha / year 3000 1000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 -1000 -3000 Orchard benefits ($/ha) Woodlot benefits ($/ha) Orchard costs ($/ha) Woodlot costs ($/ha) Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Woodlots are cut for timber at the end of the 30-year rotations, leading to a peak in revenue of US$50,000 in future value terms (beyond what is illustrated on the graph). CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 99 Table A2.10: Questions on Woodlots, Asked during Field Visits to Tojikobod in February 2022 to the Head of the Agricultural Department and the Head of the Forest Department Guiding Question Response Source There is a total of 35,791 ha of pastureland in Head of Agriculture General impression regarding changes Tojikobod, but productivity is declining every Department in land productivity over the last 10 year. years There is a total of 3,186 ha of crop lands, but Head of Agriculture productivity is decreasing. Department What activities are currently Head of Agriculture Planting of esparset, pasture rotations, and undertaken to address land Department and establishment of woodlots and orchards degradation? from a farmer Yes, the area dedicated to woodlots increases Head of Forest Have there been any initiatives, among by 2–3 ha per year. Department private, public authorities within the last 5 years to plant woodlots and orchards? Yes, the area dedicated to orchards increases Head of Forest by 2–5 ha per year. Department If yes, on what kind of land are these Woodlots are typically found on public land. Head of Forest found (Private Dekhan farms, public Orchards are found on Dehkan farms. Department land, and so on)? What is the average size of a typical Head of Forest 2–3 ha woodlot? Department What is the average size of a typical Head of Forest 2–5 ha orchard? Department Total area dedicated to woodlots in Head of Forest 1,446 ha Tojikobod Department Total area dedicated to orchards in Head of Agriculture 510 ha Tojikobod Department First, to increase their incomes and livelihoods from marketable produce Head of Forest What are farmers’ primary motivations Second, disaster risk reduction and reduction Department and for planting woodlots and orchards, in of landslides, mudflows, and flooding Head of Agriculture order of importance? Third, to regenerate soil productivity, (using Department fertilizer, crop rotations, and so on) Head of Forest Total 1,446 ha of woodlots in Tojikobod district Department What are the preferred species for Starting from 2007, they have woodlots with woodlots? mixed species including walnut, almond, Head of Forest apricot, acacia, cherry, pistachio, dog rose, and Department juniper What is the market value of a timber tree (in TSL/tree and/or TSL/m3 of Every year planted more trees and cost of one Head of Forest timber) 20–30 years after it has been tree seedling is TJS 20–30. Department planted? What is the average market value of Head of Forest 1 m3 is TJS 104 and bushes TJS 52 per kg fuelwood? Department 100 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Table A2.10 Guiding Question Response Source How much fuelwood can be harvested Head of Forest (sustainably) per year from a hectare of 30 m3 x 104 c = TJS 3,120 Department woodlot? How much timber (m3/ha) can 100 m3 (after 14 years approximately, this is Head of Forest sustainably be harvested per year from what we have observed in Tojikobod between Department a hectare of woodlot? 2007 to 2022) What is the average market value of a Head of Forest m3 of timber? TJS 3,800 (~ US$350) Department What is the spacing density of trees Head of Forest 400 trees/ha within woodlots? Department What is the average annual Half that of orchards, TJS 4,000/ha (for thinning, Head of Forest maintenance cost for a woodlot? pruning, pesticides, and harvesting) Department Source: Original elaboration for this publication. A2.6 FULL ECONOMIC COST OF WATER Historically, water has been undervalued in Tajikistan. Undervaluation leads to misuse and Since markets for water either typically do not exist misallocation of water. All too often, it is used for or are highly imperfect, it is not simple to find what purposes that do not maximize well-being and is this value is for different users of water. A broad regulated in ways that do not recognize scarcity range of methods have therefore been used to or promote conservation. 61 Efficient use of water estimate the value of water. To value the benefits of requires consideration of the full economic cost, supplying irrigation water, the World Commission which requires an assessment of the use cost of on Dams (Aylward et al. 2001) recommends water and the opportunity cost of the resource estimating the net value of the resulting increase (Briscoe 1996). The use cost corresponds to the in crop production by measuring gross benefits marginal financial cost of supplying the water to in terms of the physical outputs that the project the user (that is, costs incurred in financing and is estimated to produce at the projected price for running the abstraction, transmission, treatment, those products. When combined with cost data on and distribution systems), and the opportunity cost purchased inputs (variable and fixed), the financial reflects the value of water in its best alternative net benefits are obtained. Accounting further for use, in farming, typically the gross benefits the policy distortions to inputs and output prices, forgone by not irrigating a neighboring field. These the net value increase is obtained. Insufficient elements are analyzed below to attach a value to data on input costs precluded this approach in the enhanced water availability (groundwater, soil this assignment. Moreover, highly subsidized moisture, and irrigation capabilities) regenerated infrastructure and electricity costs needed to from the hydrological cycle and improved reservoir supply irrigation water (World Bank 2017b) leads storage capacity. to inefficient use of water and therefore potentially negative net benefits, were these to be accounted for. Use Cost of Water In this assessment, the value of water is therefore Irrigation water supply and condition of pump assessed with respect to its full economic cost. stations, irrigation distribution, drainage, and 61 https://blogs.worldbank.org/water/standing-value-water. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 101 canal systems are deteriorating in Tajikistan infrastructure within the Vakhsh River Basin, we due to environmental factors and insufficient use electricity costs for pumping as a proxy for the maintenance. High seepage water losses use cost of water in irrigation. 64 throughout systems due to insufficient structures Water abstraction costs were around US$0.014 and inefficient drainage systems are causing land per m3 (OSCE 2018). However, due to heavy salinization. The replacement and maintenance of subsidization of water supply services during the deteriorating irrigation and drainage infrastructure Soviet era heritage, electricity tariffs, especially is therefore of paramount importance to ensure in agriculture, have been kept artificially low65 sustained agricultural production. 62 Moreover, (SIWI 2016). According to the World Bank (2017b), in many cases, the river water level is at a lower subsidies were estimated to cover up to 70 percent elevation as compared to the agricultural land, of the energy costs in 2015. The economic cost of which makes it necessary for water to be lifted by water abstraction from pump stations for irrigated large pumping stations into main canals. There are agriculture is therefore significantly higher than also many instances where boreholes are drilled what farmers pay. This has been incorporated in the from aquifers deeper than 150 m depth. About estimates of the use costs in Table A2.11, yielding an 44 percent of irrigated agriculture in Tajikistan is economic use cost of irrigation of US$0.05 per m3. dependent on pump stations to supply agricultural It should also be mentioned that Tajikistan has land. 63 In DRS, 15,085 ha rely on pump irrigation enacted, recently, a new tariff policy to ensure (World Bank 2017a). Pump irrigation and the better services of the water supply systems. associated electricity use usually absorb an According to Asia Plus (2022), the new water tariff exceptionally large part of the annual O&M budget, for urban water supply and sewage (which covers for example, 70 percent in Uzbekistan (ADB user costs) is around US$0.45/m3 . It is included 2021a). Given this, and the absence of estimates for comparison, in Table A2.11, as another proxy- of the financial resources that would be needed indicator for the use cost of freshwater resources to effectively upgrade, run, and keep irrigation in urban settings. Table A2.11: Economic Cost of Water in Tajikistan Use Cost of Irrigation Water Unit Value Use cost of urban freshwater supply (for reference) US$/m3 0.45 Water abstraction use cost - subsidized (covering 70% of the true electricity cost) US$/m3 0.014 Water abstraction use cost - unsubsidized US$/m3 0.048 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 62 63 64 65 62 https://alri.tj/storage/aUWGqCvpM4o6af6uSo2b.pdf. 63 In areas of eastern Tajikistan, for instance, pumps supply 21 percent of the land, while northern areas rely up to 85 percent on pumped irrigation (Xenarios, Laldjebaev, and Shenhavet 2021). 64 While this may be an overestimate of the use cost for irrigation systems that rely on gravitation, overall, this is counteracted as we have not been able to incorporate replacement, repair, and damage costs of infrastructure in the use cost. 65 As a result, water conservation and willingness to pay full-cost recovery tariffs have not institutionalized. 102 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Opportunity Cost of Water Used for Irrigation for  irrigation in Tajikistan  is over 15,000  m3 per ha.  But water appropriation to croplands is While financial sustainability of irrigation systems seriously affected by irrigation water losses. Only is important for O&M reasons, from the point of an estimated 30–35 percent of the water that is view of managing water as an economic resource, initially lifted is delivered to croplands in Tajikistan, the key challenge is to ensure that users consider due to decaying irrigation infrastructures the  opportunity  costs of water. Opportunity (Xenarios, Laldjebaev, and Shenhavet 2021). In the costs vary considerably depending on ‘alternative Vakhsh catchment, water productivity of wheat is uses’  that come into play. In irrigation systems, a 0.35 kg wheat/m3 of water, calculated from water typical situation is one in which users are charged consumption at the farm level and average crop a small, subsidized amount for the ‘use cost’ (as in yields per region (ADB 2013). For fully irrigated Tajikistan), and the opportunity cost is essentially wheat (unconstrained by water) and with sufficient that of the opportunities which the farmer forgoes other inputs, water productivity should be in the on another (unirrigated) field. order of 0.8–1.0 kg/m3 based on potential yield of To approximate the value of the forgone 4 t/ha and annual water demand of 4,000 m3/ha. output on ‘another’ field, we estimate the average The reasons for the low level of water are multiple, value of water as an input into agricultural including limited access to farm inputs and production,  by considering average  irrigation degraded soils (ADB 2013; World Bank 2020a). volumes per hectare, water productivity for wheat Consequently, we estimate the value of water as in the Vakhsh River Basin, water efficiency, and an agricultural input, according to Equations 4, the market price for wheat. According to World 5, and 6 and assume that this is the benefit that Bank (2017a), the  average  annual abstraction farmers forgo by irrigating one field over another. Added wheat yield = V (15,000 m3/ha) x E (35%) x WP (0.35 kg/ha) = 1,838 kg/ha (eq 4) Revenue = P x added yield (1,838 kg/ha) = US$739.06/ha (eq 5) Gross benefit from 1 m3 of water = Revenue/V = US$0.05/m3 (eq 6) Table A2.12: Assessment of the Value of Water - Assumptions and Results Parameter Unit Value A Yield of wheat (for a typical irrigation volume V) kg/ha 1837.5 V Irrigation volume per hectare m3/ha 15,000 P Average price of wheat grain in Tajikistana US$/kg 0.402 WP Water productivity in Vakhsh, for wheat kg/m3 0.35 E Water efficiency % 35 Revenue Revenue per ha of additional wheat US$/ha 739.1 OC Gross benefit/opportunity cost of irrigation US$/m3 0.05 Full economic cost of water (use cost + opportunity cost) US$/m3 0.1 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: a. From World Bank (2020a). CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 103 According to these estimates, by irrigating one (Davlatov 2022b), the implicit volumetric price field over another, the farmer forgoes US$0.05 is US$0.002 per m 3 , significantly lower than the worth of output for every 1 m of irrigation water 3 full economic cost of water. used. If it would be possible to transfer the water among a wider universe of potential users A2.7 ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON COST of that water (which will usually include other COMPONENTS OF DREDGING farmers, and may include neighboring towns and The costs of dredging equipment and associated industries), then the ‘opportunity cost’ would labor include mobilizing and demobilizing the be greater still, since it is the value placed by equipment to the site and running and keeping it the highest alternative use that defines the for the work. Pipelines and booster pumps would opportunity cost. go with hydraulic dredging work, one or more Combining the use value and the opportunity support scows would go with in-water mechanical cost of irrigation water yields an economic cost of dredging, and several types of earthmoving US$0.1/m3 of irrigation water, a price which would equipment would be needed for any work done ensure that users consider the full economic cost over exposed land area. of water when using it. 66 This value is used in the study to assess the value of enhanced groundwater The costs associated with site usage include and soil moisture, lateral return flow, and runoff, achieving access for the dredging equipment. In contributing to reservoir replenishment. confined or high-relief settings (such as reservoirs The case for full-cost pricing in Tajikistan in narrow canyons), equipment access may require the construction of new infrastructure to ease the While Tajikistan is rich in water resources, only work. If reservoir sediments are not delivered to the 51.4 percent of the country’s population have downstream river channel, costs are associated access to clean water. This is attributable to poor with managing, stockpiling, transporting, infrastructure (Circle of Blue 2020). It should also be noted that preservation of ecosystems in disposing, and/or reusing the dredged material. the basin depends on improving the efficiency This may include the application of dewatering or of water use in irrigation systems. That can only screening methods to make the dredged material come about with adequate pricing. At present, better suited to its final placement or use. In some substantial amounts of water are lost in cases, a significant amount of land space may be depressions at the ends of irrigated areas; such needed for the management or placement of the water could possibly be transferred for recharge dredged material, which could involve negotiated of previously vibrant environmental assets and land leases or purchase costs. ecosystems, particularly the Aral Sea. Wastage The costs associated with implementing needed and excessive irrigation also lead to soil salination. If full-cost pricing for irrigation water and proper protocols for safety and environmental was implemented, this would be prevented. protection include any permit requirements. An orchard farmer in Tojikobod pays a flat fee The costs associated with quality control and for irrigation of US$17 per ha owned. Using assurance include owner oversight and surveys an average 8,000 m of water on an orchard 3 (Western Dredging Association 2021, 42). 66 Interestingly, the same estimate was quoted by a sediment management specialist, Dr. Detering (with 27 years of experience). When attempting to infer a value of reservoir storage, he said: “US$0.10/m3 is my best guess on typical water value for irrigation in these climate conditions.” (D-Sediment 2022). 104 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS A2.8 ADDITIONAL DETAILS OF SEDIMENT by multilateral agencies rarely use a systematic REDUCTION VALUATION approach to the valuation of environmental and social impacts of large dam projects. Oftentimes Water Storage Infrastructure Is Critical the limiting factor is information on how ecosystem for Development function changes when a dam is built,” or as Large dams and reservoirs supply hydroelectricity sedimentation progresses. and contribute to flood control, irrigation, and That said, when extensive data for modeling drinking water and often perform multiple reservoir benefits is lacking, the replacement cost functions simultaneously (Perera, Williams, approach can be used as an indirect method of and Smakhtin 2023). Reservoir sedimentation benefit estimation. The replacement cost theory is a significant contributor to the decline in is built on the assumption that the willingness to performance of reservoirs (Annandale, Morris, pay for an improvement in environmental quality and Karki 2016), affecting the safety of dams and is greater than, or equal to, ‘replacement costs’ reducing energy production, storage, discharge made to offset environmental damages (Lew et capacity for irrigation, and flood attenuation al. 2011) Because dredging recovers losses in capabilities (Shellenberg et al., 2017). Moreover, reservoir services, dredging expenditures can abrasive sediments can damage turbines and be viewed as replacement costs—this approach, other dam components and mechanisms, with a different extension, has been used in decreasing their efficiency and increasing Lee and Guntermann (1976) and later by Clark, maintenance costs (Sangal, Singhal, and Saini Haverkamp, and Chapman (1986) and Hansen 2018). Reservoirs therefore can be seen as assets and Hellerstein (2007). that supply a variety of market and nonmarket benefits, for multiple years. Sediment that settles The avoided dredging cost approach is in a reservoir this year will reduce benefits in also used in this study—in addition to more later years. As a result, the benefit from reduced conservative approaches—to appreciate the cost erosion can be assessed in terms of the benefits of sedimentation from different societal angles, of the increase in the quality and availability of and since Tajikistan is unlikely to dredge Nurek reservoirs services (Hansen and Hellerstein or Rogun (Kochnakyan 2022). The valuation 2007). approaches that are used in this study therefore include: As with any economic valuation assessment, the services that are valued should be a function of (a) Enhanced reservoir storage for irrigation, what matters in the local and national context, as (b) Avoided reservoir rehabilitation costs, and well as resources and data that are available. As (c) Avoided dredging costs, that is, using the noted by the World Commission on Dams (Aylward replacement cost method, assuming sediment et al. 2001) in their review on best practice and the is dredged in the same year as it was deposited, performance of benefit valuation of large dams, to reflect the immediate benefits of reduced “flood control, navigation, fisheries and recreation sedimentation. 67 benefits are rarely valued in dam appraisals, where these uses are secondary benefits.” Aylward et al. The justification and limitations of each of these (2001) also note that “formal appraisals prepared approaches are supplied below. 67 Moreover, it is not known if and when dredging would be undertaken by dam operators in Tajikistan. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 105 The Value of Enhanced Reservoir estimates of costs for storage capacity. For a Storage for Irrigation nominal active capacity of 10 km3 , recent estimates suggest that the construction cost of Rogun The benefits of supplying water for irrigation powerplant is in the order of US$5 billion (Asia Plus can be estimated in terms of the net value of the 2022). This leads to a specific storage cost of only resulting increase in crop production, or with US$0.5 per m3 , which has been used as a proxy reference to the full economic cost of providing for the avoided reservoir restoration cost in this that water for irrigation as done and argued for in study. 68 The same approach was also adopted in the preceding section. As highlighted by the WCD Jordan, to assess the benefits of reduced erosion (2000) however, the valuation of irrigation benefits from sustainable pasture management (Myint and remains a difficult endeavor due to the complexity Westerberg 2015). of correctly estimating the respective contribution of irrigation water to augmenting productivity, due The avoided reservoir rehabilitation costs to the difficulties of accurately projecting hectares approach however has its limitation in that, that will be brought under irrigation, crop choice in most cases, ‘other effects’ and the true costs and crop yield. Most agencies, therefore, do not of sedimentation are not accounted for in the prescribe specific methods for irrigation benefit construction design and associated financial valuation but rather supply guides and handbooks feasibility assessment (Randle and Boyd 2018). to supplement agricultural economic texts that Sedimentation, for example, affects the safety and describe available methods (Young 1996). flood attenuation capabilities. As sedimentation progresses, the reservoir becomes a delta-filled The Value of Avoided Reservoir valley that takes a meandering course such that Restoration Costs a flood wave does not spread out to allow flood The value of reservoir storage, which is used routing. 69 Sediments will often block low-level for productive services such as irrigation or outlets designed to allow for reservoir drawdown. hydropower production, may be considered as As sedimentation continues, clogging of spillway an incomplete assessment of the true benefits of tunnels or other conduits reduces spillway reduced erosion. As highlighted above, reduced capacity, as seen in Nurek (AIIB 2017). The two erosion improves dam safety, flood protection, and outer dam gates of Nurek were already inoperable, multiple other services. According to Dr. Detering in 2014, due to sedimentation (D-Sediment 2014). (D-Sediment 2022), it is therefore common Sediment has other environmental impacts, such within the sediment management industry to use as CH4 emissions from anoxic sediments, upstream reservoir restoration cost—the cost of replacing aggradation, and downstream degradation. the storage that has been lost by the construction Moreover, turbine equipment is damaged through of new infrastructure—as a proxy for the benefit of erosion of the oxide coating on the blades, leading reducing sedimentation. This is done by estimating to surface irregularities and more serious material the original reservoir construction cost and damage. Sustained erosion can lead to extended inflating it into present value terms (D-Sediment shutdown time for maintenance or replacement. 2022). Alternatively, one may use the new-build Recent studies have highlighted the synergic 68 In comparison with Europe and West Asia, reservoir construction estimates are seen in the range between EUR 2 and 6 per m3 (Westerberg and Myint 2015; D-Sediment 2022). https://www.hydroreview.com/world-regions/dealing-with-sediment-effects-on-dams-and-hydropower-generation/#gref 69 106 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS effect of cavitation erosion and sediment erosion, been ignored in best practice engineering (Morris showing that the combined effect of cavitation and 2020; Perera et al., 2023), and this appears to be sand erosion is stronger than the individual effects case for Nurek as well. (Thapa, Dahlhaug, and Thapa 2015). There is thus Dredging refers to the excavation of material from a significant range of present and future costs beneath the water. There are broadly two types and risks associated with unabated sediment of dredging: mechanical-lift dredging removes accumulation, whether for Nurek or Rogun under sediment by buckets such as a backhoe, clamshell, construction. dragline, or bucket ladder, placing the excavated For this reason, it may be equally justified to material into a barge or truck for transport and consider the benefit of reduced sedimentation hydraulic dredging mixes sediment with water with respect to the avoided dredging (or sediment for transport in a slurry pipeline, reintroducing transfer) costs, which embeds a wider range of the sediment back to the river below the dam, or benefits from reducing sedimentation, as argued discharging to a containment area for dewatering. below. A critical limitation to dredging is its high cost. This cost is reduced by discharging to the river below the Avoided Dredging Costs dam instead of upland disposal sites, for example, The direct and indirect benefits (more balanced using continuous sediment transfer (Detering reservoir operation, reduced flood risk, 2014, 2018). This allows for restoring sediment reduced damage to equipment, and minimized transport along the fluvial system, through the environmental harm) of reduced sedimentation, reintroduction of sediment into the river below the justify expenditures on dredging and active dam. This strategy implies essentially continuous sediment management of reservoirs (Hansen sediment transfer as opposed to large dredging and Hellerstein 2007). Consequently, the benefit campaigns at intervals of decades (Morris 2020). of reduced erosion on hydropower dams in the Vakhsh catchment is also estimated in terms of Key cost drivers of dredging are shown above. To averted dredging costs.70 obtain a range of estimates for potential dredging costs for Nurek and Rogun, we have drawn Estimates of Continuous Sediment Transfer on personal interviews and (scant) literature. and Dredging Costs Dredging costs from East Asia are in the order Unfortunately, active sediment and reservoir of US$4.67 per m3 based on seven inland river management is part of standard practice dredging projects each removing over 1 million m3 worldwide,71 at least not until a reservoir fills with of sediment in India (Indian Infrastructure 2019) sediment and becomes a liability to owners or and US$3.46 per m3 in Bangladesh (Dhaka Tribune downstream residents. Evidence suggests that, in 2020). In the United States, the most typical most cases, sedimentation consequences beyond dredging price over the last decade has been the 50 to 100 years ‘design life’ of the reservoir has in the range of US$3.5–5.8 per m3 for hydraulic 70 Flushing is not an option for Nurek, nor for Rogun (TEAS 2014). In the case of Nurek, the effect is limited to a tiny section of the reservoir directly in front of the dam (D-Sediment 2014). Other sediments will remain in place, and flushing will come with a loss of valuable water. Dredging and sediment reuse or continuous sediment transfer could therefore offer promising options for managing sediment, in combination with the reduction of sediment from catchment—as a source of green infrastructure—the first best option for sediment management (Randle and Boyd 2018). 71 As noted in Morris (2020) sediment inflows worldwide have been designed on the basis of the “life of reservoir” paradigm, whereby sediment inflows have been calculated using a 50 to 100-year planning horizon and the corresponding sediment storage volume allocated in the storage pool. No consideration was given to sedimentation consequences beyond this planning horizon. Reservoir design and operation without a long-term sediment management strategy management strategy is not a sustainable approach, and no longer represents an engineering best-practice. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 107 dredging into a nearby confined placement site. A continuous sediment transfer could potentially Higher-priced exceptions apply to projects where come with a lower cost and higher environmental access was particularly difficult or the containment compliance than conventional dredging, due area required a significantly higher amount of to significantly smaller dimensions and a 24/7 preparation (Western Dredging Association operation. In the case of Nurek, very roughly, 2021, 44). Discussion with Royal IHC IDH suggests D-Sediment estimates the implementation of a dredging costs to be in the order of US$1–4 per m , 3 continuous sediment transfer possibility for Nurek with the most important parameters affecting to be in the order of approximately US$2 per m3 being the type of material, dredging depth, and transferred (D-Sediment 2022). Water as well as pumping distance (World Bank communications, power needs for continuous sediment transfer 2022). Moreover, as mentioned above, costs would be compensated by keeping reservoir are expected to be lower if reservoir sediments storage capacity and therefore avoided power are delivered to the downstream channel and losses and water losses. In the light of this data, a more natural sediment transport conditions are conservative sediment removal cost of US$3 per restored to the environment (Western Dredging m3 is used to infer the value of reducing erosion Association 2021). through landscape restoration. 108 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS ANNEX 3. STAKEHOLDER CONSULTATIONS The following list of stakeholders helped with data • Director, Agency of Land Reclamation and acquisition and made this study possible. Irrigation under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan • First Deputy Prime Minister, Government of the Republic of Tajikistan • Chairman, Committee of Emergency Situations and Civil Defense of the Republic of Tajikistan • Deputy Prime Minister, Government of the Republic of Tajikistan • Chairman, Committee for Land Management and Geodesy of the Republic of Tajikistan • Assistant to the President on Economic Issues, Executive Office of the President of the • Agency of Forestry under the Government of Republic of Tajikistan the Republic of Tajikistan • Head of International Relations Department, • Agency for Hydrometeorology under the Executive Office of the President of the Committee for Environmental Protection under Republic of Tajikistan the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan • • Director, Agency for Hydrometeorology under the Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Tajikistan Committee for Environmental Protection under the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan • Minister, Ministry of Finance of the Republic of • Chairman, Committee for Tourism Tajikistan Development under the Government of the • Ministry of Transport of the Republic of Tajikistan Republic of Tajikistan • Minister, Ministry of Energy and Water • Head of the Main Department of Geology Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan under the Government of Republic of Tajikistan • Minister, Ministry of Economic Development • President, Academy of Sciences under the and Trade of the Republic of Tajikistan Government of the Republic of Tajikistan • Minister, Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic • Director, Institute of Geology, Earthquake of Tajikistan Engineering and Seismology under the Academy • Deputy Minister, Ministry of Energy and Water of Sciences of the Republic of Tajikistan Resources of the Republic of Tajikistan • Chairman, OSHC ‘Barki Tojik’ • Chairman, Committee for Environmental • Deputy Chairman, OSHC ‘Barki Tojik’. Protection under the Government of the The following stakeholders were directly Republic of Tajikistan consulted to support the provision of data for the • Director, Agency for Statistics under the CBA. The detailed report for the Tojikobod field President of the Republic of Tajikistan visit is provided in a separate document. CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan 109 Table A3.1: List of Stakeholders Consulted During Field Visit Function Interviewed When Head of Committee, Emergency Situation and Civil Protection Head of Forest Department Head of Water Department During field visit to Tojikobod in February 2022 and later follow-up calls Head of Agriculture Department Head of local market, Tojikobod Farmer Consultant for IFAD Livestock and Pasture Phone calls and email, March 2022 Development Projects I and II, Caritas Switzerland Country Director for Tajikistan Phone calls and email exchanges Natural Resource Management Specialist. Throughout the study process in 2022 Consultant for the project Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 110 Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan CONTENTS Valuing Green Infrastructure: A Case Study of the Vakhsh River Basin, Tajikistan September 2023