90153 June 2014 . Number 126 SEEING IS BELIEVING: POVERTY IN THE PALESTINIAN TERRITORIES Tara Vishwanath, Brian Blankespoor, Faythe Calandra, restrictions imposed on Gaza, which has been Nandini Krishnan, Meera Mahadevan, Nobuo Yoshida 1 entirely “closed” with almost all movements across the border controlled by Israel. In Introduction: The Palestinian Territories have a practice, this means that few people and a uniquely fragmented geography, characterized limited number of goods are allowed to travel by the isolation of Gaza from the rest of the in and out; in particular, many inputs for world, and the man-made barriers to mobility commercial production are prohibited from within the West Bank. The internal mobility restrictions imposed by Israel, unique to the Map 1: Density of Poverty: Poor Population per West Bank, play an important role in explaining Square km spatial variations in outcomes within the West Bank. This is strikingly analogous to the role of Gaza’s external barriers in explaining the divergence between the West Bank and Gaza. These have consequences for poverty and economic development. Detailed analysis using a series of labor force and household surveys were undertaken as part of the West Bank and Gaza Poverty and Inclusion Assessment, Coping with Conflict? The analysis shows that over the last decade, internal and external barriers have been associated with tremendous constraints to growth and investment, which is evident in high rates of unemployment, especially in Gaza and among women and youth. Over the same period, the territories have also witnessed large and widening gaps in poverty and labor market outcomes between the two territories of the West Bank and Gaza. Arguably, one of the most important reasons for this divergence is the external mobility Source: World Bank (2014) “Seeing is Believing: Poverty in the Palestinian Territories”, The World Bank, Washington D.C. 1 entering the area. The lack of inputs and lack of The core World Bank team was led by Tara Vishwanath access to markets have resulted in a virtual (tvishwanath@worldbank.org). This MENA K&L Quick Note was cleared by Bernard Funck, Acting Director, shut-down of the private sector, which in turn, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management has been associated with high levels of department, Middle East and North Africa Region unemployment, under employment and higher (MNSED), the World Bank. This MENA K&L Quick Note is rates of poverty in Gaza. based on the longer report with the same title. To access the report enter the title in the search function at worldbank.org. The West Bank too is hampered by mobility analysis that the Research Group of the World restrictions, but of a different kind than Gaza. Bank has developed. The West Bank is controlled by internal barriers in the form of road closures as well as external The analysis in the Poverty and Inclusion barriers. Goods and services still make it across Assessment revealed implications for survey the border, but transportation within the area is design and methodology which is in line with restricted and often encounters significant PCBS’s original request for TA to improve the delays.2 As in Gaza, the mobility restrictions quality and comparability of survey hamper the growth potential of the private instruments and for continued assistance to sector, albeit to a lesser extent. What is unique create poverty maps using the most recent to these internal restrictions in mobility is that census and survey data to identify vulnerable they artificially create disadvantaged areas groups. within the West Bank, namely those areas where restrictions are most severe. This poverty mapping exercise is the latest result of the collaboration between the World These spatial disparities imply that poverty can Bank and PCBS. This has involved technical vary widely within the space of a few assistance from the World Bank on calculating kilometers, and therefore, poverty estimates at small-area (locality level) poverty estimates for a highly disaggregated level can reveal pockets the Palestinian Territories. This also included of extreme poverty, even in more prosperous training of the PCBS staff on the methodology areas, that more aggregate analysis can mask. of poverty mapping, as well as the use of Such information is especially important for PovMap2, the software developed by the World policy making, and for prioritizing the Bank software for such work. Throughout this development efforts of the many international process, all the maps and analysis in this report and national agencies working on the ground. have been replicated by both the World Bank A poverty map is a visual representation of and the PCBS teams. precisely this kind of information. What is a Poverty Map? Poverty estimates are World Bank-PCBS Collaboration: This Poverty usually calculated using a nationally Mapping exercise builds on a programmatic representative household survey with and comprehensive collaboration between the consumption data. In the Palestinian World Bank and the Palestinian Central Bureau Territories, the Palestine Expenditure and of Statistics (PCBS). This collaboration began in Consumption Surveys (PECS) are designed to 2010 with a request for Technical Assistance provide estimates of poverty at the regional (TA) to validate and update methodology for level (West Bank and Gaza), strata level (Urban, poverty measurement. Using a long series of Rural, Refugee Camp), and some larger Palestinian Expenditure and Consumption governorates. However, for policy makers, Surveys (PECS), the World Bank worked with often, further disaggregation is needed. For the PCBS to create a fully consistent poverty instance, with limited resources, what parts of a series from 2004 to 2009, including a simulation governorate should be prioritized for poverty of poverty estimates for Gaza in 2008 (due to reduction programs? How do we identify poor the inability to complete data collection in Gaza and vulnerable pockets to target social that year). In October 2010, the Palestinian assistance? Authority publicly announced the 2009 poverty estimates in line with the new methodology Poverty Mapping, using a methodology and international good practice.3 A series of pioneered by the World Bank, can produce four technical notes describe this body of work highly disaggregated databases of welfare. and were delivered to PCBS in August 2010. A Poverty Maps involve the estimation of poverty core component of this TA involved several in- indicators at very detailed level (locality, country capacity building exercises at the PCBS enumeration area, and even households as well as dedicated training for PCBS and themselves) in order to identify pockets of Ministry of Social Affairs (MoSA) staff in using poverty. This is a tool for effective and efficient ADePT, a computational package for poverty allocation of resources and programs according June 2014 · Number 126· 2 to the greatest need, to achieve the broader Map 2: Irregular and Self-Employment Correlated development goal of poverty reduction. with Poverty in the West Bank; not in Gaza Poverty maps are not simply useful as visual representations of poverty but also to understand the relationship with a host of other important socio-economic indicators such as health, education, labor market outcomes and social assistance. Poverty mapping relies on household survey and census data, making the most of the strengths of each, and compensating for their weaknesses. Certain key data requirements must be fulfilled to be able to construct a poverty map. Survey data must include detailed consumption data, which is the basis for calculating poverty estimates, for instance at the national and the regional level. However, the survey usually covers only a representative sample of the population. This tradeoff between sample size and the cost and time needed to collect quality consumption data Source: World Bank (2014) “Seeing is Believing: Poverty in implies that surveys cannot typically be used to the Palestinian Territories”, The World Bank, Washington calculate reliable poverty estimates for more D.C. disaggregated areas. This is because, at such lower levels of disaggregation, for instance, the Conclusions: Given the fragmented geography community or village, the number of of the Palestinian Territories, the visualization observations in the survey is too small to of small-area poverty estimates is unique and produce statistically reliable estimates. The has posed unique challenges. The presence of census on the other hand covers the entire manmade barriers to mobility, the large parts of population and can therefore be reliable even at the West Bank that lie outside the control of the lower levels of aggregation. However, the Palestinian Authority, and Gaza’s relative census usually covers only basic information isolation imply that localities and communities like demographics, education and employment living a few kilometers apart can have wide but not detailed information on consumption. disparities in welfare. Even within Hebron, the poorest governorate in the West Bank, locality The methodology behind poverty mapping level estimates of poverty range from 14 % to a thus takes advantage of the strengths of the whopping 83 %. There is also a lot of variation survey and the census. In principle, it estimates in the number of poor people in Hebron consumption for every household covered by governorate—from the heavily populated city the census, and can therefore reliably produce of Hebron to small, isolated Bedouin measures of poverty for small areas. communities in the south-eastern part of the governorate. This particular poverty mapping exercise makes use of the most recent census, the The poverty map and estimates should be General Census of Population and Housing interpreted in relation to the unique nature of 2007. Two possible surveys were considered for restrictions in place. For instance, Hebron city the exercise—the PECS 2009 and 2010. The 2009 itself is divided into H1 and H2, with the latter PECS was chosen as it was the household under the control of the Israeli Defense Forces. survey closest to the census year. The PECS The city has 11 permanently manned 2007 was eschewed on account of it being a checkpoints. Many communities in the south crisis year in Gaza, and the PECS 2008 was not eastern part of Hebron lie in large part in area considered because it did not cover Gaza. C, and the resulting isolation and lack of access June 2014 · Number 126· 3 to services implies correspondingly high rates appropriately. Poverty maps have become of poverty. Overall, thus, poverty and popular in contexts of social safety net vulnerability are linked to and must be programs. They are best suited to guide spatial understood in relation to these types of targeting, for instance, identifying pockets of restrictions. The poverty map is a visual high poverty rates or large populations of the illustration of estimated poverty indices at poor. For instance, they could be combined locality level. It is a powerful tool for policy with the Ministry of Social Affairs’ database of makers and provides key information at a level current beneficiaries to identify areas with of disaggregation that matters to prioritize the inadequate coverage. use of scarce resources in areas that need it most. It is important to remember that these are Poverty maps are also useful to rank estimates, and are accompanied by standard geographical areas and communities for a errors. Therefore, the poverty map is in effect a phased roll-out of programs, but they are not a range of poverty rates for each locality. The substitute for the identification of beneficiaries, better the model and the quality of data, the which requires household or individual-level smaller these errors, and the more accurate the targeting. Secondly, the poverty estimates are estimates are likely to be. based on consumption only, and may not adequately capture other attributes of poverty The full report also provides cartographic or vulnerability. Thirdly, these estimates do not representations of various correlates of poverty, explain the causes of poverty—well designed which taken together with the poverty map are surveys and careful analyses will be needed to a striking visual story. These correlations obtain diagnostics of the attributes and causes illustrate the analysis in the poverty assessment of poverty, which are essential to design for the West Bank and Gaza, Coping with interventions. Conflict? Poverty goes hand in hand with labor market outcomes. Several localities with high The poverty mapping exercise has also levels of unemployment also lie in the highest highlighted areas for improvement in the quintile of poverty rates, and vice versa. While census and the PECS. One important area that education matters in many parts of the West needs to be revisited is the sampling frame of Bank, in Gaza, irrespective of education, the PECS to gain representativeness at the poverty remains high. A sheer lack of jobs and governorate level and oversample small, insecure employment are the main drivers of isolated and vulnerable communities, welfare. particularly in area C. Since the poverty map depends critically on the nature and amount of The poverty map thus can be a very useful live information that is commonly available in the monitoring tool, provided it is regularly survey and the census, the census instrument updated and linked to relevant information can also be redesigned to improve this aspect in such as geo-referenced datasets of market looking forward to the next poverty map. accessibility, facility locations (schools, hospitals and clinics), agro-climatic information, road networks, and availability of services such as water and sanitation. As a combined and disaggregated database, it can serve as a tool for planning purposes, especially in decentralized structures. Similarly, it can provide a first stage filter for identification of project or program areas. This database cannot substitute for careful policy design, but rather can serve as a guide for policy prioritization. It is important to also recognize the limitations of the poverty map and its accompanying geo- referenced data and using care in applying it June 2014 · Number 126· 4