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Used with the permission of © mtcurado / iStockphoto. Further permission required for reuse. Cover design: Will Kemp, Global Corporate Solutions, World Bank Group. Contents Acronyms. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii Acknowledgments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1. Overall environmental situation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2. Niger’s natural capital. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.3. Government efforts on sustainable natural resources management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 1.4. Objective and structure of the CEA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2 Land degradation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.1. Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 2.2. Drivers of land degradation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 2.3. Cost of land degradation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 2.4. The impact on food security and malnutrition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2.5. The impact on food trade. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 2.6. The impact on livelihoods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.7. The impact on migration and fragility. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.8. Current efforts to address land degradation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 2.9. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 3 Deforestation and forest degradation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 3.1. Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 3.2. Forest cover. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 3.3. Drivers of deforestation and forest degradation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 3.4. Deforestation and forest degradation: extent and carbon loss. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3.5. Current efforts to address key issues related to forests. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 3.6. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 4 Climate change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 4.1. Overview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 4.2. Expected impacts of climate change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 4.3. Government efforts to address climate change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 4.4. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 5 Recommendations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 5.1. Enhancing operations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 5.2. Supporting policy reform. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 5.3. Building knowledge. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Annex 1.  Main actors involved in environmental management in Niger . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Annex 2.  Cost of agricultural productivity loss due to land degradation. . . . . . . . . . . . 66 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Boxes Box 2.1. Land degradation methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Box 2.2. Improved livelihoods through FMNR in Maradi and Zinder. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Box 2.3. Overview of institutional actors engaged in sustainable land management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Box 3.1. Differential taxation, a fiscal instrument to protect forest resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Box 3.2. Land restoration initiatives in Niger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Box 5.1. Maison du Paysan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 Box 5.2. TerriStories—An innovative participatory planning tool . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Figures Figure 1. Cost of land degradation by region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiv Figure 2. Cost of land degradation by crop (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiv Figure 3. Trends in forest area and other wooded lands . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvi Figure 4. Projected mean temperature in Niger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii Figure 5. Niger’s emissions profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii Figure 1.1. Natural capital in Niger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Figure 1.2. Natural capital per capita in Niger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Figure 1.3. Share of income from different sources, per region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Figure 2.1. Niger mean temperature annual trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure 2.2. Average Annual PDSI for Niger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Figure 2.3. Change in distribution of precipitation in Niger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Figure 2.4. Wind speed in Niger (m/s). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Figure 2.5. Evolution of TLUs in Niger between 2005 and 2019 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 2.6. TLUs per region in 2019. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 2.7. Cost of land degradation by region (US$). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figure 2.8. Cost of land degradation by crop (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figure 2.9. Food insecurity in rural areas by region, Niger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 moon water harvesting techniques. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Figure 2.10. Regreening using Zai pits and half-­ Figure 2.11. Estimated per capita intake in grams per day of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, legumes, nuts and seeds, and milk, 2000–2017. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 iv NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Figure 2.12. Prevalence of acute malnutrition (global/severe) in children 6–59 months by region in 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Figure 2.13. Food imports in Niger—2014, 2018, and 2020 (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Figure 2.14. Food exports in Niger—2014, 2018, and 2020 (%). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Figure 3.1. Trees and shrublands areas in Niger (ha). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Figure 3.2. Forest area (1,000 ha). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Figure 3.3. Area of natural forests (1,000 ha). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Figure 3.4. Social cost of carbon due to forest loss during 2015–2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Figure 4.1. Projected mean temperature in Niger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 Figure 4.2. Niger’s GHG reference profile for 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Figure 4.3. Economic impact of climate change in Niger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Maps Map 1. Land degradation in Niger between 2001 and 2015. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii Map 2.1. Map of land degradation 2001–2015—Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.3 target indicator. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Map 2.2. PDSI for Nigerien regions in 1980 and 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Map 2.3. Land use and land cover time series, 1975 and 2013. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Map 2.4. Regional land degradation maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Map 2.5. Livelihood zones in Niger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Map 3.1. Carbon storage in Niger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Tables Table 1. Key recommendations for Niger. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xx Table 2.1. Characteristics of rural livelihoods in Niger, 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Table 3.1. Additional strategic documents and relevant texts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Table 4.1. scale sectoral vulnerabilities and potential climate change impacts in Niger. . . . . . 43 Broad-­ Table A.2.1. Results of the analysis by region and crop. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 CONTENTS v vi NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group Acronyms Acronym Description 3N Nigeriens Nourish Nigeriens ABN Niger River Basin Authority (Autorité du Bassin du Fleuve Niger) AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use ANEB National Association of Wood Harvesters (Association Nationale des Exploitants de Bois) ANGA National Association of Professionals of Arabic Gum (Association Nationale des Professionnels de la Gomme Arabique) AREN Association for the Revitalization of Livestock in Niger (Association pour la Redynamisation de l’Élevage au Niger) BEEEI Environmental Assessment and Impact Studies Bureau (Bureau National d’Évaluation Environnementale Et des Etudes d’Impact) CAP Community Action Program CEA Country Environmental Analysis CNEDD National Council for Environment and Sustainable Development (Conseil National de l’Environnement et du Développement Durable) CNSEE National Center for Ecological and Environmental Monitoring (Centre National de Surveillance Écologique et Environnementale) CNSF National Center for Forest Seeds (Centre National de Semences Forestières) DGEDD General Directorate for the Environment and Sustainable Development (Direction Générale de l’Environnement et du Développement Durable) DGEF General Directorate for Water and Forests (Directorate General des Eaux et Forests) ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EPI Environmental Performance Index ESA European Space Agency ESDS Economic and Social Development Strategy (Plan de Développement Economic et Social) FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FCV Fragility, Conflict, and Violence FMNR Managed Natural Regeneration Farmer-­ GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse Gas GoN Government of Niger ACRONYMS vii Acronym Description ICDP Integrated Community Development Plan ISFM Integrated Soil Fertility Management LPG Liquefied Petroleum Gas MP Maison du Paysan NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development NGO Nongovernmental Organization NTFP Timber Forest Product Non-­ PANGIRE National Action Plan for the Integrated Management of Water resources (Plan d’Action National de Gestion Intégrée des Ressources en Eau) PDC Communal Development Plan (Plan de Développement Communal) PDSI Palmer Drought Severity Index PIK Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research PNCC National Policy on Climate Change (Politique Nationale en matière de Changements Climatiques PNEDD National Plan for the Environment and Sustainable Development (Plan National pour l’Environnement et le Développement Durable) RCP Representative Concentration Pathway SDDCI Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy (Stratégie de Développement Durable et de Croissance Inclusive) SDDEL Sustainable Livestock Development Strategy (Stratégie de Développement Durable de l’Élevage) SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SNPA-­CVC National Strategy and Plan of Action for Climate Change and Variability (Stratégie Nationale et Plan d’Action/Climat et Variabilité Climatique) SPN2A National Strategy and Plan for Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change (Stratégie et Plan National de l’Adaptation de l’Agriculture) TLU Tropical Livestock Unit UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WHO World Health Organization viii NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Acknowledgments The preparation of this report was led by Yasmina Oodally (World Bank Task Team Leader and Environmental Specialist). The report was prepared by the World Bank Africa West Environment, Natural Resources, and Blue Economy Global Practice (AFW ENB GP), in coordination with the Government of Niger (GoN). The report was co-authored by Jose Diego Hopkins Alfaro, Herbert Francisco Curry Arceo, Lelia Croitoru, Nour Masri, and Sanne Agnete Tikjoeb (World Bank consultants). This publication was produced under the guidance of Maria Sarraf, World Bank Practice Manager. Key contributors included Caroline Plançon, Moctar Sacande (FAO consultants), Ousmane Laminou Manzo, Sitou Lawali, and Abdoulaye Diouf (University of Niamey consultants). The World Bank peer reviewers Dorothea Hilhorst (Senior Land Governance Specialist) and Aimee Marie Ange Mpambara (Senior Agriculture Economist), as well as internal unit review- ers Ellysar Baroudy (Lead Natural Resources Management Specialist) and Mirko Serkovic (Senior Environmental Specialist) graciously agreed to review the draft reports, and this final version benefits from their contributions. Special thanks to Lelia Croitoru and Grazia Atanasio (Senior Communication Consultant) for support on the stakeholders’ consultation and com- munication aspects. We would like to thank the World Bank Country Office colleagues in Niamey: Aissatou Dicko (Country Manager), Ibrah Hachimou (Environmental Specialist), Mouslim Sidi Mohamed (Communication Specialist), and Hadidia Djimba (Program Assistant) and extended country team for their operational and administrative support in organizing the stakeholders’ consultation workshop. The World Bank acknowledges support received from officials of the Ministère de l’Environnement et de la Lutte Contre la Désertification and Ministere du Plan. These offi- cials include Seybou Yacouba (Direction Générale des Eaux et Forêts) and Sanoussi Garba (Direction Générale de la Programmation du Développement). The report also benefited from advice and comments of colleagues in the Nigerien Government, academia and civil society, as well as of the international development community: Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Institut Nationale de recherches Agronomiques du Niger, Secrétariat Exécutif du Conseil National de l’environnement pour un Développement Durable, UNDP, and more. We would also like to thank the following participants at the consultation workshop held in Niamey on May 12, 2022: Abdou Kader Soumaila Sina, Aboubakar Almou Mani, Adam Issoufou, Awaiss Aboubacar, Ayouba Djibo, Barmo Soukouradji, Boubacar Bako, Boukari Elh Abdoulaye, Hambali Ali, Harouna Ramatou Abba Kiari, Hassana Babacar, Ibrahim Miko Abdel Nasser, Ismael Tinno, Kanta Aissa Amadou, Mahamadou Amadou, Mahamane M. Lawali, Maman Zanguina Sanouchi, Massatatchi Mahaman Sani, Massaoudou Moussa, Moutari Ousmane, Rabiou Mahamadou, and Seyni Souley. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ix x NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group Executive Summary With a gross domestic product (GDP) of US$568 per capita (World Bank 2020), Niger is one of the poorest countries in the world. It has a population of about 24 million, half of which are children under 15 years of age. The society depends heavily on its natural capital, par- ticularly croplands, pasturelands, and protected areas (World Bank 2021). Agropastoralism is the economy’s backbone, contributing 40 percent of the GDP and employing more than 80 percent of the workforce. Nonrenewable assets, such as uranium and oil, are significant contributors to the country’s exports and government revenues. Despite its endowment with natural resources, Niger faces significant challenges: extreme poverty affects more than 40 percent of the population; insecurity associated with fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) marks particularly the regions of Tillaberi, Diffa, and Tahoua; low access to basic services, such as health care, safe drinking water, and sanitation, affects a large share of population. In addition, Niger is the world’s 7th most vulnerable country to climate change, according to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative country index (ND-­ GAIN 2019). In this fragile context, the country’s rapidly growing population—3.8 percent, one of the highest in the world—puts severe pressure on its natural resources. Aware of these problems, the Government of Niger (GoN) made impressive efforts to improve natural resource management, through policies and investments aimed at restoring degraded lands, expanding protected areas, and enhancing the value of forest products, for example, Arabic gum, moringa leaves. However, scaling up land restoration and improving food security are yet to be achieved. Moreover, the COVID-­19 crisis has recently worsened the economic situation, increased gender inequality, and added even more pressure on the country’s natural resources. Nowadays, Niger’s environmental situation is concerning: it ranks 152 out of 180 countries according to Yale’s Environmental Performance Index (EPI).1 Key environmental challenges include the following: ● Land degradation. Rapid population growth led to doubling the cultivated area in the past two decades.2 At the same time, inappropriate agricultural practices, poor water manage- ment, and hotter and irregular weather patterns reduced agricultural yields in many areas third of the Nigerien population is already at risk and silted fertile basins. Given that one-­ of food insecurity,3 the losses due to land degradation are likely to heighten this risk in the future. 1 Environmental Performance Index, 2020. 2 The cultivated areas increased from 12.6 percent to 24.5 percent of the country’s land during 1975–2013 (CILSS 2016). 3 According to the National Statistical Institute, in 2018, about 29 percent of the population was at risk of food insecurity, while 12 percent was affected by severe and moderate insecurity. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xi ● Deforestation and forest degradation. Forests are a pillar for Nigeriens’ livelihoods in terms of biomass production (67 percent of the country’s energy), non-­ wood forest prod- ucts, and ecosystem services. Yet, current deforestation and intensive degradation lead to future losses for local communities (for example, fodder and non-­ wood forest products), national society (for example, erosion control), and global community (for example, carbon and biodiversity). ● Climate change. In the past decades, Niger has witnessed increasing temperatures, and year droughts, floods, and storms. These problems are expected to intensify in the multi-­ future, leading to harmful impacts on health (for example, mortality), natural resources (for example, damages due to floods), and nutrition (for example, loss of food due to droughts). As the country is highly dependent on rainfed agriculture, anticipating and managing the effects of climate change is critical to support food security and livelihoods in the future. Objective and Scope The objective of this Country Environmental Analysis (CEA) is to analyze critical environmen- tal challenges that threaten sustainable economic growth in Niger and to propose actions to depth analysis and address them. It focuses on three government priorities that require in-­ immediate response: land degradation, deforestation and forest degradation, and climate 4 change. Due to time and resource constraints, this report does not cover other significant topics, such as mining and air pollution. As the first CEA ever conducted for Niger, its results are expected to broaden the dialogue with the Government, to inform the updated Systematic Country Diagnostic and to provide concrete recommendations for stakeholders to effectively address environmental sustain- ability and natural resource management. The report relies on a wide range of publications, including official documents, scientific literature, and lessons learned from international best practices. It should be noted that the pandemic and the security situation restricted the team’s ability to collect local information in several cases (for example, the extent of forest degradation). Despite these constraints, this CEA identifies the main challenges and opportunities to miti- gate the environmental risks faced by the three priority areas of analysis. Land Degradation Since the 1980s, Niger took steps toward land rehabilitation through the adoption of assisted natural regeneration, crop improvement practices, and water capture techniques. These efforts led to improved soil and vegetation, especially in the regions of Maradi, Zinder, and Tahoua (Map 1, in green). Despite these achievements, more than 6 percent of the country’s area has suffered degradation during 2001–2015. This is mostly concentrated along the Niger River Valley in the southwest and along the south-­ central border (Map 1, in red). In 4 In this report, the analysis of land degradation focuses only on the problems related to croplands and rangelands. The forest-­ related issues are discussed in the chapter of deforestation and forest degradation. xii NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS MAP 1.  Land degradation in Niger between 2001 and 2015 Source: Trends.Earth, 2016. Note: red = degraded, yellow = stable, green = improved, black = no data. About 70 percent of the country’s land is desert. these areas, the degradation translated into a decline of agricultural yields, soil stability, and natural biodiversity. There are multiple drivers of land degradation in Niger, including (a) natural factors, such as increase of mean annual temperature by 0.6–0.8°C between 1970 and 2010; rise in the fre- quency and severity of extreme rainfall events, contributing to water erosion; and increased intensity of sand winds, particularly during the harmattan season, causing wind erosion (b) anthropogenic factors, such as rapid population growth, which increased the demand for food and prompted agricultural expansion, particularly in the Tillaberi region; inappropriate farming practices, for example, cultivating fallow land and conversion of pastoral land to crop- land; overgrazing due to higher livestock population feeding on limited grassland areas; and overexploitation of woody vegetation to meet energy demands of local communities. Land degradation led to several impacts on the Nigerien society, for example, on-­ site effects, such as yield losses of croplands and rangelands, and off-­ site effects, such as soil erosion and reduced water quality. It also generated impacts on the global community, for example, carbon emissions and reduced biodiversity in areas where vegetation was lost. An in-­ depth analysis estimated the cost of land degradation at US$646 million or 5 percent of the ­country’s GDP in 2019.5 Tillaberi is the most affected region, bearing more than 40 percent of 5 site effects on croplands, without including the off-­ This is a conservative estimate, as it focuses only on the on-­ site effects, and not the costs related to the degradation of other land uses (for example, grasslands and forests). EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xiii FIGURE 1.  Cost of land degradation by region 350,000,000 300,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 USD 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 ri a o i r ey ez ad de u be ss ad m ho ar n Do lla ia Zi Ag M Ta N Ti FIGURE 2.  Cost of land degradation by crop (%) 3% 1% 7% Cowpea 14% 44% Millet Sorghum Rice Peanut Sesame Maize Fonio 31% Source: Data from the GoN, analyzed by the World Bank. the cost (Figure 1). This is primarily due to the high demographic growth, agricultural intensifi- cation, and extremely dry climate in the western part of the region. The cost of land degrada- tion is notably lower in Maradi and Zinder, where large-­ scale land restoration projects have been implemented since the 1980s. Overall, cowpeas and millet accounted for most of the yield loss in Niger (Figure 2). Without remedial action, land degradation can contribute to long-­lasting impacts on several fronts: ● Food security. Food insecure population concentrate mostly in Agadez, Diffa, Tillaberi, and Tahoua. Moreover, in the northern parts of Tillaberi and Tahoua, at the border with Mali, food insecurity is increasingly prevalent and humanitarian assistance covers the needs of only 8–12 percent of households. Land degradation is likely to amplify the severity of food insecurity within and across these regions. xiv NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ● Malnutrition. Food insecurity is a major cause of malnutrition in Niger. The highest levels of malnutrition occur in remote areas (such as in Diffa region) and in areas highly depen- dent on subsistence farming (Maradi, Tahoua, and Zinder). In this context, yield losses due to land degradation can worsen people’s nutrition and health in the long run. ● Food trade. The value chains of dry cereals, such as millet and sorghum, are the basis of food consumption in Niger. Given that local production is already insufficient to meet domestic food demand, land degradation can further worsen the country’s food trade balance, that is, increasing food imports to cover cereal deficits and decreasing earnings from livestock exports. ● Livelihoods. Niger covers thirteen livelihood zones, three of which are at high risk of irregular rainfall and frequent droughts: the agropastoral belt zone; the rainfed millet and sorghum belt zone; and the cropping, herding, and work migration zone (Map 2.5 from Chapter 2). As the residents of these areas depend highly on climate for food and income, the problem of land degradation may exacerbate food deficits and income security in the long run. ● Migration. As most of the agriculture is rainfed, many Nigeriens migrate during the dry season to work as laborers in Southern Niger or other parts of West Africa. In addition, the increasing insecurity and conflicts from neighboring countries result in incoming migration, which affects the already limited access to food. In this fragile context, yield loss due to land degradation will likely aggravate the outmigration of Nigeriens for better opportunities. ● FCV. Land degradation and climate change are likely to exacerbate current conflicts, for example, between farmers and pastoralists over land use, with negative implications on the country’s fragility. Deforestation and Forest Degradation Forests are an important source of wood, non-­ timber forest products (NTFPs) (moringa leaves and so on), and ecosystem services for the Nigerien population. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Nigerien forests cover about 1.1 million ha. Nearly 90 percent of these forests are naturally regenerated and include the primary forests of the W national park of Niger, while the remaining are plantations. Moreover, other wooded lands extend on related problems was conducted based an additional 2.8 million ha. An analysis of forest-­ on international datasets (FAO, European Space Agency [ESA]), in the absence of updated ­ information from national sources.6 Deforestation and forest degradation. During 1990–2000, the deforestation rate in Niger was high, about 3.7 percent (Figure 3). Although it fell to 1.1 percent in the past decade, it is nearly twice the average deforestation rate for the Sub-­ Saharan Africa (FAO 2020a; World Bank 2020). Since 2000, the Government has conducted impressive reforestation efforts; 6 For example, the latest State of the Environment reports 1991 data on forest area in Niger of 16 million ha (CNEDD 2021). As this information dates back 30 years, the team preferred to rely on more updated information, which is derived from international sources. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xv FIGURE 3.  Trends in forest area and other wooded lands Forests surface areas (in 1000 ha) 5,000 4,000 Other wooded lands, 2,840.90 3,000 2,000 Forests, 1,079.90 1,000 0 1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: FAO 2020b. however, they followed a much slower rate (2,500 ha per year) than the deforestation phenomena (14,920 ha per year). Data on the extent of forest degradation are not available, yet the forests known as ‘forêts classes’ have been severely degraded and more than 50 percent of them have lost their regeneration potential (CNEDD 2021). The natural expan- increasing pressure on land for other land uses, sion of forests is unlikely due to the ever-­ such as cropping and livestock grazing. There are several drivers of deforestation and forest degradation in Niger, including (a) expan- sion of cultivated areas into forests due to food needs associated with population growth; (b) wood harvesting at unsustainable rates; (c) overexploitation of non-­ wood forest products and unsustainable sampling of roots, bark, leaves, and fruits of several forest species; and (d) intensive exploitation of agroforest parks for fodder, particularly during the lean season. The impact of deforestation particularly affects specific local species: ● Acacia Senegal: Many Arabic gum stands are deteriorated due to aging, bushfires, over- grazing, and a proliferation of invasive species in most gum plantations. ● Moringa tree: The sustainable development of this species is hampered by a defoliator pest for which farmers lack practical management approaches and by overharvesting of leaves. ● Doum palm: Droughts, intensive harvesting of leaves, and early collection of the green fruits are threatening the regeneration of this species. Social cost of carbon. Niger is a low greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting country. Agriculture, forestry, and land use (AFOLU) change is the top contributor, accounting for 88 percent of Niger’s GHG emissions (République du Niger 2021a). The economic value of carbon associ- ated with forest loss between 2015 and 2020 was estimated at more than US$205 million. While these are costs to the global community, deforestation and forest degradation entail wood forest prod- significant impacts on the Nigerien society, such as losses of wood, non-­ ucts, and ecosystem services. Conducting an economic valuation of the impacts of defores- tation and forest degradation would be important to gain a better understanding of the real magnitude of current losses and the needs for future restoration in Niger. xvi NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Climate Change Since 1968, Niger has suffered from increasingly frequent droughts, storms, and floods. These phenomena caused significant damages to agriculture, food security, and livelihoods.7 Climate change is expected to increase the average temperature by up to 6oC by 2100, depending on the scenario (Figure 4). Higher temperature extremes are projected for the country’s southwest (Röhrig et al. 2022). In terms of GHG, past emissions have been low—about 0.1 tons carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per capita in 2018—and originated from the AFOLU sector (Figure 5). FIGURE 4.  Projected mean temperature in Niger 36 34 32 30 28 26 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Hist. Ref. Per., 1986-2005 RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5 FIGURE 5.  Niger’s emissions profile 2% 9% Agriculture, forestry and others land use changes Energy Waste 1 2 3 88% Sources: World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal for figure 4, and CNEDD & AFDB. (2020) for figure 5. 7 They affected over 3 million people in 2000 and 2001 and over 7 million people in 2002. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xvii Under a business-­as-­usual scenario, this sector is expected to quadruple its emissions ­during 2014–2030.8 However, the GoN has made a firm commitment through its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), to move the country’s development pathway toward a green economy. The document aims for unconditional reductions from AFOLU by 13 percent compared to the business-­as-­usual scenario for the same year and conditional reductions by about 23 percent.9 In the absence of remedial actions, the above projections can bring severe impacts in Niger. Results of a model developed by the University of Stanford show that by 2100, climate change will likely reduce Niger’s GDP per capita by 80 percent.10 Other studies addressed the effects of climate change in specific sectors: ● Agriculture. Results of available studies indicate that Niger could potentially lose its entire rainfed agriculture by 2100 (USAID 2017); a potential increase in mean annual precipita- tion throughout the century could translate in improved suitability of millet (Röhrig et al. 2022); yields of heat-­and drought-­sensitive crops are projected to decline, while yields of less sensitive crops are projected to increase, for example, cowpeas by 54 percent and groundnuts by 52 percent (2080 versus 2000; Tomalka et al. 2021). Noting the uncertain- ties of the models used above, these results call for adaptation strategies based on a cautionary approach, with the overall goal of improving food security in the future. ● Water. Most of the region’s water supply is unevenly distributed, is poorly accessible due to undeveloped hydraulic supply systems, and originates from neighboring countries. The Fouta Djallon Highlands in Guinea, West Africa’s ‘water tower’, are expected to experi- ence rainfall reductions of up to 26 percent by 2100, affecting basins such as that of Niger River. In addition, the expected increases in temperature and more frequent droughts in Niger will likely contribute to future declines in water supply. This situation high- lights the urgency to invest in water saving measures and technologies for future water consumption. ● Health. Climate change is expected to induce several impacts: heatwave-­related mortal- ity is predicted to increase threefold by 2080 compared to 2000; in addition, the cases of malaria, meningitis, and malnutrition will likely rise due to changes in temperatures, rainfall patterns, floods (particularly in Southern Niger), and more frequent droughts. 8 They are projected to increase from 24,000 ktCO2e in 2014 to 107,296 ktCO2e in 2030, according to the country’s NDC. 9 There is a level of uncertainty about future emissions, particularly beyond 2020. Predictions are based on varied assumptions of economic growth and the anticipated capacity and technical support from development partners. 10 Based on Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel (2015); https://web.stanford.edu/~mburke/climate/map.php. xviii NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Recommendations This CEA demonstrated that environmental degradation is worrisome in Niger. Land deg- radation is a priority problem: losses in crop yields affect particularly Tillaberi, Tahoua, and Dosso regions, with potential future impacts on food security, livelihoods, and migration. Deforestation rates are nearly double the Sub-­ Saharan average, and forest degradation threatens the health of local species that are important for economic diversification (Acacia Senegal, Moringa tree, Doum palm). Moreover, climate change is likely to have negative implications on agriculture, water resources, and people’s health. Addressing these requires integrated efforts to tackle issues needing urgent attention as well as long-­ term solutions of persistent problems. In this light, implementing activities with the participation of youth and women can highly contribute to improving the society’s welfare. Table 1 provides a summary of the key recommendations aimed to address the environmental sustainability, poverty, and fragility in Niger. A detailed description of the recommendations can be found in chapter 5. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xix TABLE 1.  Key recommendations for Niger Categories Recommendations Enhancing • Promote farmers’ access to financing and to Farmers’ Field Schools linked to the operations implementation of Sustainable Land Management (SLM) techniques (e.g., startup capital, knowledge exchange) • Support smart agricultural technologies, such as the farmer managed natural regeneration (FMNR) • Scale up water harvesting techniques to fight cropland degradation (e.g., contour stone bunds) • Introduce improved and climate resilient crop varieties to increase production (e.g., HKP millet variety) • Develop and implement a food storage system across regions • Link smallholder farmers to local markets to creates incentives for adopting SLM and move beyond subsistence farming • Encourage rural youth employment through vocational training and as a means to modernize agriculture • Expand value chains by promoting Niger’s industrial capacity to transform agricultural products into food products (e.g., local processing and sales of animal products) • Invest in the promotion and development of the Arabic gum industry (including expansion and rehabilitation of existing stands) • Upgrade the wood energy subsector (e.g., promote participatory forest management, expand the planted area, improve the transport and marketing of wood, test models of improved household cookstoves) Supporting • Enhance local governance structures in planning and managing natural resources policy • Institute participatory land use planning as it is an important policy tool for long-­ reform term sustainable development • Support the implementation of the National Nutritional Security Policy (PNSN) with explicit attention to climate change vulnerability • Improve country’s capacity to sustainably use its stock of natural capital to achieve the objectives of the Niger 2035 Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy • Develop regulations, including monitoring and enforcement provisions in preparation for increased demand on forest resources (including fodder) • Promote integrated landscape management and landscape resilience in restoration strategies • Implement the new land policy and SLM action plans, including required regulatory and institutional reforms to help prevent conflicts linked to land and natural resource management Building • Develop natural accounts for agricultural land, water, and forests to address the knowledge five strategic axes noted in Economic and Social Development Strategy (ESDS) 2017–2021. • Assess and monitor forest resources to drive sector growth (for example, conduct forest inventory and economic studies to estimate forests’ contribution to the national economy). • Promote dedicated technical entities for climate data collection and dissemination (for example, improved meteorological data to enhance the population’s response to droughts). xx NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group   xxi xxii NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group Photo: World Bank Group 1 Introduction 1.1. Overall environmental country to climate change, according to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-­ GAIN 2019). situation In the past two decades, the country faced shift- ing climate patterns, including rainfall variability, Niger is a fragile country, marked by a poorly temperature increases, and extreme events such diversified economy and extreme poverty. The as heatwaves. These changes have led to human country has a population of 24.2 million and a losses, decreased soil productivity, and increased gross domestic product (GDP) per capita signifi- competition for access to resources. Moreover, cantly below the Sub-­ Saharan average (US$568 many rural communities have grappled with a land versus US$1,500). Its economy is dominated by 11 tenure system with often unclear and overlapping the agropastoral sector, which contributes nearly rights, a lack of land use classification and registry, 40 percent to the country’s GDP and employs and an absence of ­ monitoring and enforcing by more than 80 percent of the workforce (World local institutions. It is important to note that the Bank 2017a). The country’s demographic growth rapid population growth and the recent COVID is among the fastest in the world (3.8 percent12), pandemic have put additional pressure on food and half of the population is under 15 years of age security and natural resources. Nowadays, the (United Nations, Department of Economic and environmental situation in Niger is concerning: it Social Affairs, Population Division 2019). In 2021, ranks 152 out of 180 countries, according to the extreme poverty affected 42 percent of the popu- 2020 Environmental Performance Index (EPI) lation (World Bank 2022a), mostly due to losses in (Wendling, Emerson, and Sherbinin 2020). income from COVID-­ related job layoffs and lower remittances. Poverty affects especially girls and The above challenges are heightened by the women and is most prevalent in Dosso, Zinder, dominance of natural assets relative to human and and Maradi regions. In addition, an estimated 2 produced capital. Natural capital comprises 38 per- million people are chronically food insecure, while cent of Niger’s total wealth (World Bank 2021). This 4.5 million people are at risk of food insecurity is substantially higher than the Sub-­ Saharan aver- (Government of Niger 2017). Niger currently expe- age, where n ­ atural capital represents 19 percent riences medium intensity conflict and low access and human capital is some 60 percent of the total to basic services. wealth. Niger’s resilience depends on its ability to transform its natural capital into human or p ­ roduced Climate change, rapid demographic growth, and ­ capital at rates sufficient to meet its demographic weak governance are major threats to Niger’s growth. The following s ­ ections provide a brief growth. Niger is the world’s 7th most vulnerable overview of the country’s natural capital, the Government’s efforts to j ­udiciously manage these 11 Data refer to 2020. World Bank, “World Bank Open Data,” 2022. https://data.worldbank.org. assets, and the objective and scope of this Country 12 Idem. Environmental Analysis (CEA). 1 I NTRODUCTION 1 1.2. Niger’s natural capital AGRICULTURAL LAND Natural capital is crucial for the Nigeriens’ liveli- Agriculture is the most important source of hoods and food security. Croplands, ­ pasturelands, income in each of Niger’s seven regions. When and protected areas account for most of Niger’s considered together, livestock and farming natural capital. Although their total value has generate between 40 percent and 53 percent of increased over time (Figure 1.1), their per capita the regions’ income (Figure 1.3). The sector is value has declined since 2010 because of high dominated by food crops, particularly rainfed demographic growth (Figure 1.2). The following cereals such as millet, cowpea, sorghum, maize, paragraphs summarize four components of Niger’s and rice. Over 1975–2013, cultivated areas assets: agricultural land, forests, water, and increased from about 13 percent to 25 percent of uranium and oil. the country’s land, primarily due to the rapid FIGURE 1.1.  Natural capital in Niger 70,000 60,000 Constant 2018 US$, millions 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 Forests, timber Forests, ecosytem service Foss il fuel energy Mangroves Fisheries Cropland Pastureland Foss il fuel energy Minerals FIGURE 1.2.  Natural capital per capita in Niger 3,500 Constant 2018 US$, millions 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018 Forests, timber Forests, ecosytem service Protected area Mangroves Fisheries Cropland Pastureland Foss il fuel energy Minerals Source: World Bank 2021. 2 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FIGURE 1.3.  Share of income from different sources, per region 120 100 11% 11% 11% 16% 13% 23% 26% 80 24% 25% 23% 22% 31% Percent 24% 24% 60 26% 25% 40 46% 44% 34% 41% 34% 22% 24% 20 7% 7% 9% 6% 16% 14% 5% 14% 5% 11% 9% 9% 0 Agadez Diffa Dosso Maradi Tahoua Tillaberi Zinder Salary Non-employment Livestock Farm Enterprise Remittance Source: World Bank 2021. population growth and the increasing demand for are likely to heighten this risk in the future. Without food. Nowadays, approximately 6.5 million ha are remedial action, this situation can worsen in the cultivated in the rainy season and a further 73,000 future—especially in a context where gender ha are used for intensive horticulture production in inequality can leave women-­ led households with the dry season (Ministere du Developpement little choice but to adopt environmentally unsus- Agricole et Ministere des Ressources Animales tainable coping mechanisms and land degradation 2017). Irrigation covers about 87,870 ha out of an can force farmers to migrate on new lands, thus economically irrigable land potential of more than adding further pressure on natural resources. 270,000 ha (FAO 2018).13 Degradation of cropland and pastureland is a FORESTS key problem in Niger. Since the 1970s, ­ croplands have expanded eastward into suitable soils and Nigerien forests provide a wide range of goods encroached traditional pastoral areas. However, and services for local communities and national inappropriate agricultural practices, poor water society. According to the Food and Agriculture management, and hotter and irregular weather Organization (FAO), Niger’s forests cover about patterns reduced crop yields in many areas and 1.1 million ha, while other wooded lands extend on silted fertile basins. Moreover, the livestock popu- an additional 2.8 million ha. These areas provide lation has increased consistently, exerting higher a variety of benefits: wood, covering 67 percent pressure on the remaining pastoral land, likely of the country’s energy production (Ministère contributing to reduced productivity. Given that de l’Energie 2019); non-­ timber forest products one-­third of the Nigerien population is already at (NTFPs), some of which could be integrated in risk of food insecurity,14 the losses of yields and value chains, for example, Gum Arabic (Ministere other ecosystem services due to land degradation de l’Environnement de la Salubrite Urbaine et du Developpement Durable 2016); forest fodder, 13 More than 52 percent of the total is located around the Niger River which contributes about 30 percent of fodder (FAO Aquastat database, 2018). needs for Niger’s Sahelian livestock (Ministère 14 According to the National Statistical Institute, in 2018, about 29 percent of the population was at risk of food insecurity, while de l’Hydraulique et de l’Environnement and FAO 12 percent was affected by severe and moderate insecurity. 2012); and ecosystem services such as erosion 1 I NTRODUCTION 3 control. These benefits are particularly important dropped considerably, from 2,300 m3 per year in for local communities as coping mechanisms 2004 to 1,360 m3 per year today.15 during times of drought, when agricultural yields may decline. Forests are also a critical component The national river network is divided into two of the country’s strategy to reduce poverty and major systems: the Niger River Basin and the enhance resilience to climate change (Ministere Lake Chad. The Niger River Basin covers the de l’Environnement de la Salubrite Urbaine et du western part of the country and is managed by Developpement Durable 2016). the Niger Basin Authority, based in Niamey. The river is an important source of water for agricul- Despite their importance, Niger’s forests are ture, drinking, and hydroelectricity. However, the being depleted at unsustainable rates. A recent rainfall variability has led to changes in the Niger forest resource assessment indicates that River system: water table levels have dropped between 2015 and 2020, Niger lost approximately considerably in humid regions, leading to further 62,100 ha or 5.4 percent of its 2015 forest cover. declines in flows (Mahé and Paturel 2009), while in Cropland expansion accounted for about 57 Sahelian regions, runoff coefficients are increasing percent of deforestation, followed by grassland (Mahé and Paturel 2009). expansion. An earlier study estimated that the on-­ site cost of land degradation was nearly 9 percent Lake Chad covers the eastern part of Niger and of the country’s GDP in 2015; additionally, land is one of the largest sedimentary hydrogeological degradation in woodlands and grasslands basins in Africa. Annual rainfall varies significantly accounted for more than 95 percent of this cost across the basin from 1,500 mm per year in the (Nkonya, Ru, and Edward 2018). Climate change, south to less than 100 mm per year in the north. population growth, and human encroachment Due to high temperatures throughout the year, are exacerbating the unsustainable depletion of potential evapotranspiration exceeds 2,000 mm Niger’s forest cover and pose significant risks to its per year in the center of the basin (CNEDD 2021). ecosystem services and biodiversity. Groundwater is the main source of water supply for the agriculture and for the population living in the basin. WATER Renewable groundwater resources are esti- The agricultural and pastoral lands are depen- mated at 2.5 billion cubic meters. The long-­ term dent on rainfall, which varies across the country’s viability of this water source will be affected by five climatic zones. In Niger, the desertic Sahara the recharge rates, which depend on the rainfalls Zone receives less than 150 mm per year, and veg- patterns and climate variability. Moreover, demo- etation is concentrated in the valleys and oases of graphic pressure and increased conversion of land Aïr and Kawar. The Saharan-­ Sahelian, character- to agricultural use also pose risks to water avail- ized by nomadic breeding, receives on average ability. Nonrenewable groundwater resources are 200–300 mm annually. Higher rainfalls occur in estimated at 2,000 billion cubic meters (Ministère the other zones: the Sahelian Zone (300–500 de l’Hydraulique et de l’Assainissement 2017). mm), the Sudano-­ Sahelian Zone (500–600 mm), and the Sudanese Zone (600–800 mm) (Ministère de l’Hydraulique et de l’Assainissement 2017). Over time, per capita water availability in Niger has 15 According to the Water Stress Index, absolute water scarcity is defined as less than 500 m3/capita/year, water scarcity is less than 1,000 m3/capita/year, water stress is less than 1,700 m3/year, and more than 1,700 m3/capita/year is no water stress. 4 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS URANIUM AND OIL 1.3. Government efforts on Niger’s extractive industries contribute 42 per- sustainable natural resources cent of total exports and generate 7 percent of management government revenues (ITIE Niger 2021). The coun- try is the world’s fifth largest producer of uranium The Government of Niger (GoN) recognizes the (ITIE Niger 2021). A recent positive development importance of maintaining a balance of its fragile was the readmission of Niger as an Extractive ecosystems and their services for the socio- Industries Transparency Initiative implementing economic development of the country. Niger’s country in February 2020. This should facilitate the vision was enshrined in a key pillar of the coun- institutional reform needed to recover earlier gains try’s Economic and Social Development Strategy and the resolution of key issues such as the envi- (ESDS) for 2017–2021. The strategy recognizes ronmental impact of mining and local communities’ facing a precarious environmental sit- that Niger is ­ appropriate share of mining revenues collected by uation due to the severity of soil degradation, low the Government. In July 2020, Niger adopted the preservation of biodiversity, obstacles to the sus- National Mining Policy 2020–2035 that aims to tainable development of land and water resources, diversify mining beyond uranium and improve the and limited ability to deal with the climate crisis. In contribution of the mining sector to the national addition, the Renaissance Program 2 (2016–2021) economy which has varied over the past three identified the restoration and sustainable man- decades (République du Niger 2020a). agement of land as one of the main priorities to ensure food and nutrition security through the The country is also an important producer of crude ‘Nigeriens Nourish Nigeriens’ (3N) Initiative. These oil. Recent investments portend increased exports documents included ambitious targets to restore as infrastructure becomes operational. However, 1.065 million ha of land and extend protected the economic and social benefits of future oil areas16 as well as increase the contribution of windfalls will hinge on the transparent and efficient NTFPs to households by accelerating production governance of these resources to benefit the of Arabic gum and moringa (République du Niger entire population and future generations (World 2016a). More recently, the Strategic Framework Bank 2022b). Furthermore, the variability of com- for Sustainable Land Management for 2015–2029 modity prices and sector productivity will continue aims at restoring 3.2 million ha of land by 2029. to accentuate volatility in government revenues Niger has expressed these ­ commitments inter- and investments, as weak earnings are likely to nationally, for example, through its Nationally reduce government revenues in the near term. In Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UN Paris addition, increased oil production is expected to Agreement on Climate Change and through the create a demand shock that will raise domestic Bonn Challenge.17 prices and potentially put other economic sectors at a competitive disadvantage. Given the volatil- In 1991, Niger embarked on a vast institutional, ity of commodity prices, increasing agricultural legal, and administrative reform to transfer com- productivity and fostering the development of the petencies and executive powers to local authori- private sector are critical conditions for Niger’s ties. This decentralization process has had a major sustainable growth. impact on the governance of natural resources, promoting dynamic engagement at the grassroots level to support and complement the efforts of the 16 During 2011–2015, Niger reported having restored 218,000 ha of land against a target of 150,000 has and doubling the area of protected areas. 17 A global platform launched by the Government of Germany, involving 61 countries to date. 1 I NTRODUCTION 5 central state through sectoral policies. Despite Country Diagnostic and allow the Government, these advances, various challenges remain, in the World Bank, development partners, and other particular relating to sustainable financing, efficient stakeholders to effectively address environmental and transparent management of communities and sustainability and natural resource management regions, and the provision of qualified staff. The questions that affect Niger’s future. development of a transfer mechanism ­ creates ­ further challenges. This mechanism is intended to The report is structured around three thematic simplify the allocation of subsidies, enable invest- areas: ment, and share out finances equitably among ● Land degradation communities. However, ­ communities and regions are not yet able to provide efficient public ser- ● Deforestation and forest degradation centric ­ vices or offer citizen-­ administration, while ● Climate change. local people and communities are not sufficiently involved in ­municipal decision-­making and the development processes taking place within the These areas are in line with the high priorities context of the decentralization reforms (GIZ GmbH, identified by the GoN, given their significance n.d.). to the country’s economy and the intricate links between them. Other important themes such as pollution and mining go beyond the scope of this report and require their own separate analysis. 1.4. Objective and structure of the CEA This CEA leverages existing data and research to contextualize the environmental ­ challenges to The objective of this CEA is to analyze criti- Niger’s sustainable development and brings in cal environmental and natural resource issues new analysis on the cost of land degradation and threatening sustainable economic growth in loss of forest carbon. To better understand the Niger and propose policy actions and invest- extent of the environmental ­ degradation, Chapter ments to address them. The results of the analysis 2 presents an in-­ depth analysis of land degrada- aim to broaden the dialogue with the GoN and its tion, in terms of key drivers, economic cost, and engagement with the public on improving environ- potentially long-­lasting impacts on the society. ment and natural resource management. The CEA Further, the problem of deforestation and forest aims to effectively analyze and communicate the degradation is examined in Chapter 3, focusing on links between good environmental and natural trends of forest areas, degradation drivers, and the resource stewardship in Niger, economic growth economic cost of carbon loss. Given the coun- and poverty reduction, and improved livelihoods, related risks, Chapter try’s vulnerability to climate-­ to galvanize investment in environmental manage- 4 provides an overview of the climate change ment, land conservation and restoration, policy projections and likely effects on specific sectors in and regulatory reform, institutional strengthening, Niger. Finally, concrete recommendations address- and capacity building. Ultimately, the CEA will ing Niger’s environmental sustainability, poverty, inform the upcoming update to Niger’s Systematic and fragility are discussed in Chapter 5. 6 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group 1 I NTRODUCTION 7 8 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group 2 Land degradation 2.1. Overview Niger has taken successful steps toward land rehabilitation in areas threatened by desertifica- Land degradation18 is particularly visible tion. Since the 1980s, Niger has gained signifi- in areas that have experienced explosive cant experience in assisted natural regeneration population growth and intensification of agri- ­ through farmer-­ led initiatives to restore the tree cultural activities. These areas cover the Niger cover on croplands, increase cereal yields, and River Valley in the southwestern corner and improve water capture. Farmers from Maradi, along the south-­ central border (Map 2.1). The Zinder, and Tahoua have widely adopted sustain- impact of climate change and anthropogenic able land and water management practices and activities on the Nigerien land resulted in exten- added approximately 10 million trees with limited sive degradation of natural resources, leading to donor support (1985–2005). The impact is notice- up of fertile basins and dwellings, cereal silting-­ able: the areas with improved soil and vegetation deficit, and a reduction of forest and grazing are visible as a belt against the desert along the areas. This situation is affecting the country’s Great Green Wall (Map 2.1). food security, conflict, and fragility, with potential impacts on the entire Nigerien population. This chapter is based on new economic analysis Between 2001 and 2015, more than 6 percent of the cost of land degradation. It is ­outlined as of Niger’s overall territory suffered ­ degradation. follows: first, it addresses the drivers of land deg- Today, this degradation affects millions of farm- radation, including historical climate and human-­ ers. The combined pressure of unsustainable induced factors. Further, the chapter presents land management practices, growing insecurity in the results of an ­ economic analysis of the cost of Tillaberi and Dosso region, demographic changes land degradation, based on FAO data and other and migration, and climate change and variability local information. Then, it examines the potential is causing severe environmental and economic impacts on food security, malnutrition, food trade, damages. Considering that more than 70 percent livelihoods, migration, and fragility. Finally, it local ­ of the ­ country is desert, the land degradation presents an overview of current efforts to address indicators showed that 85 percent of the land is land degradation, followed by conclusive remarks. stable, ­meaning that it neither deteriorated nor improved between 2001 and 2015. Box 2.1 pres- ents methodological details related to Map 2.1. 18 This chapter focuses on the degradation of croplands and rangelands. The deforestation and forest degradation are discussed in the following chapter. 2 L AND DEGRADATION 9 MAP 2.1.  Map of land degradation 2001–2015—Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 15.3 target indicator Area (km2) % of total land area Land area improved: 109,038 8.8 Land area stable: 1,048,628 84.9 Land area degraded: 78,133 6.3 Land area with no data: 100 0.0 Total Niger: 1,235,898 100 Source: Trends.Earth 2016. BOX 2.1.  Land degradation methodology Methodology: Land degradation maps were produced using Trends.Earth, which is a platform for monitoring land change based on earth observations. The Trends.Earth platform, formerly the Land Degradation Monitoring Toolbox, tracks three sub-­ indicators for monitoring achieve- ment of SDG target 15.3, Land Degradation Neutrality: productivity, land cover change, and soil organic carbon. The datapoints are combined using a ‘one out, all out’ principle, meaning that a decline in any of the three indicators at a particular pixel causes that pixel to be mapped as ‘degraded’. The database allows users to plot time series of key indicators of land change (includ- ing degradation and improvement) to produce maps and graphics that can support monitoring and reporting and to track the impact of sustainable land management. The tool supports countries in analyzing data to prepare for their reporting commitments to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). Trends.Earth was produced by a partnership of Conservation International, Lund University, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), with the support of the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Additional information about the methodology behind the land degradation maps can be found at Trends.Earth. 10 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 2.2. Drivers of land Unit of the University of East Anglia (Figure 2.1). This is slightly higher than the global average, and degradation there has been an increase in the number of warm days/nights and a decrease in the number of cold Climate change and variability combined with days/nights. anthropogenic activities resulted in extensive degradation of natural resources. Rising tem- A change in dryness in key regions of Niger has perature, irregular and heavy rain, and frequent been observed since 1980. According to the and often strong winds produce water and wind Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which is a erosion, the main climate-­related drivers of land standardized index based on a simplified calcula- degradation (UNCCD 2017). Moreover, anthro- tion of the soil moisture balance from precipitation pogenic drivers of land degradation in Niger are and temperature data, it is possible to observe a most common in areas with high population den- significant change in the annual dryness in regions sity and include overgrazing, ­clearing forest land such as Tahoua, Maradi, Agadez, and Diffa of for agricultural purposes, uncontrolled exploitation Niger, though the PDSI remains relatively stable in of forests to satisfy energy needs, and bushfires parts of Tillaberi, Zinder, and Dosso (see Map 2.2). (CNEDD 2018). The magnitude of PDSI indicates the severity of departure from normal conditions. The average CLIMATE DRIVERS annual PDSI for Niger between 1981 and 2020 registers moderate to extreme drought between Mean annual temperature increased by 0.6–0.8°C 1983 and 1987, turning to very wet to extremely between 1970 and 2010, according to observed wet conditions from 2016 to 2020 (Figure 2.2). historical data produced by the Climatic Research Overall, 47 percent of the years are near normal or FIGURE 2.1.  Niger mean temperature annual trends 29 28 Mean-temperature (°C) 27 26 25 24 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Year Annual mean-temperature Trend 1951–2020 Trend 1971–2020 Trend 1991–2020 Source: World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal. 2 L AND DEGRADATION 11 MAP 2.2.  PDSI for Nigerien regions in 1980 and 2020 -2.8- -0.95 -0.94- -0.19 -0.18- -0 0.001 - 1 1.01 - 2 2.01 - 3 3.01 - 5 4.01 - 5 5.01 - 6 6.01 - 8 Annual PDSI, 1981 Annual PDSI, 2020 Source: Data retrieved from TerraClimate 2021, and analysis completed by the World Bank team. FIGURE 2.2.  Average Annual PDSI for Niger 8 Index PDSI class 4.0 or more extremely wet 6 3.0 to 3.99 very wet 4 2.0 to 2.99 moderately wet 1.0 to 1.99 slightly wet 2 0.5 to 0.99 incipient wet spell 0 0.49 to−0.49 near normal −0.5 to−0.99 incipient dry spell –2 −1.0 to−1.99 mild drought –4 −2.0 to−2.99 moderate drought −3.0 to−3.99 severe drought –6 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 −4.0 or less extreme drought Source: Data retrieved from TerraClimate 2021, and analysis completed by World Bank team. almost normal, 25 ­percent are in the drought Change Knowledge Portal, n.d.). The close relation- group, and 28 percent are in the wet group of ship between rainfall and water erosion (Mohamadi years, mostly in the last 15 years. and Kavian 2015) worsens land degradation in Niger. Precipitation has increased, but rainfall events in Niger appear to be less frequent and of shorter Dust and sand wind affect agricultural and pas- duration with greater intensity (Figure 2.3). The toral lands and surface watercourses. The effect precipitation trend between 1981 to 2020 indicates is particularly harmful in the harmattan season an average increment of almost 1 mm of rainfall from November to March with a hot and dry wind per year though cumulative precipitation has not that ranges in speed from 5 to 10 m/s. During the returned to pre-­1960s levels and certain character- monsoon season, wind speed is generally low (2 istics have changed. An increase in the frequency to 8 m/s) but can reach instantaneous maximum and severity of extreme rainfall events and flood- intensity winds with speed of more than 40 m/s ing has been observed (World Bank Climate (CNEDD 2019). 12 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FIGURE 2.3.  Change in distribution of precipitation in Niger 0.02 0.016 0.012 Distribution 0.008 0.004 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 Precipitation (mm) 1951–1980 1971–2000 1991–2020 Source: World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal. The increasing intensity of winds produces wind ANTHROPOGENIC DRIVERS erosion, affecting land productivity in Niger (CNEDD 2014). Wind speed varies across regions, Driven by rapid population growth and the increas- and changes in the speed also affect each region ing demand for food, agricultural e­ xpansion is the differently (Figure 2.4). Wind speed is greater in most dramatic change in Niger’s landscape over Agadez, Tahoua, and Niamey, but changes in wind the past four decades. Over 1975–2013, cultivated speed for December 2021 are more extreme in areas have increased from 12.6 percent in 1975 to Diffa, Maradi, and Zinder regions. Wind and water 18.1 percent in 2000 and 24.5 percent in 2013 (Map erosion are the main drivers of land degradation in 2.3). Agriculture expansion mostly occurred on the Niger, but the impact at the regional level varies productive sandy soils of the valleys in the Tillaberi across the country. region, where cropland is now encroaching on FIGURE 2.4.  Wind speed in Niger (m/s) 6 4 2 0 Tillabéri Niamey Dosso Tahoua Agadez Maradi Zinder Diffa 1991 – 2010 2021 Source: Direction de la Météorologie Nationale du Niger (DMN)—Division Changement Climatique et Développement (DCCD) 2021. 2 L AND DEGRADATION 13 MAP 2.3.  Land use and land cover time series, 1975 and 2013 Source: CILSS 2016. traditional pastoral lands. In this region, an increase concern because it indicates a decrease in soil of 50 percent in irrigated agriculture is observed stability and a loss of vegetation cover. along the Niger River. The south-­ central region, already heavily cultivated in 1975, is now a homoge- Although grassland areas remained relatively neous agricultural landscape, and agriculture is still stable in recent years, the livestock population expanding eastward on the remaining short grass has increased consistently (Figure 2.5). Therefore, Sahelian savannas. In parallel, average yields of more pressure is exerted in the remaining pastoral major crops have not seen a significant increase and areas where intensive production practices such since the 1980s, per capita food production has as overgrazing occurs, increasing the risk of land remained stagnant (Ministère de l’Environnement de degradation. Livestock is widely developed in la Salubrité Urbaine et du Développement Durable Zinder, Tahoua, Tillaberi, and Maradi regions, in 2014). which Tropical Livestock Units19 (TLUs) surpassed 3 million in 2019 (Figure 2.6). In addition, wood Land degradation is an important factor contribut- overharvest for energy and bushfires contributed poverty, and ing to low agricultural productivity, ­ heavily to land degradation, particularly in forested other environmental problems. Natural vegetation areas, as presented in Chapter 3. suffered a sharp decline, reducing natural biodi- versity and exposing the soil to wind and water erosion. In turn, sandy areas have increased by 19 Tropical Livestock Units (TLUs) are livestock numbers converted to a common unit. Camels with an average weight of 250 kg. were defined 24.8 percent since 1975. This trend, which appears as 1 TLU. Further conversion factors: Cattle = 0.8 TLU, Sheep and to have become more acute since 2000, is a major Goats = 0.15 TLU, Equines = 1 TLU, and Mules = 0.5 TLU. 14 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FIGURE 2.5.  Evolution of TLUs in Niger between 2005 and 2019 22,000,000 19,921,81 20,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 15,829,818 14,000,000 13,650,957 12,000,000 11,467,543 10,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 FIGURE 2.6.  TLUs per region in 2019 Niamey Zinder Tillaberi Tahoua Maradi Dosso Diffa Agadez 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, GoN. In summary, climate change and variability, of the region’s area), Dosso (34 percent), and coupled with strong demographic growth and Tillaberi (34 percent). Maradi registered 17 percent cropland expansion, poor land and water man- of its area under the process of land degradation, agement practices, and uncontrolled exploitation while the degraded land in Tahoua represented of forests to meet fuelwood and other needs, led about 9 percent of its territory. Only a small pro- to excessive exploitation of land and considerable portion of Zinder and Diffa’s areas were affected loss of productive potential. by degradation (3 percent in each). The economic cost due to land degradation was estimated at US$646 million, or 5 ­ percent of 2.3. Cost of land degradation Niger’s GDP in 2019. This corresponds to about 12 percent of the agricultural GDP in the same There is wide disparity in the extent of land year. The analysis focuses on the on-­ site economic degradation across the eight regions of Niger. To losses on croplands, that is, agricultural productiv- obtain more accurate results of land degradation site costs related to ity. Since it does not cover off-­ at the local level, Figure 2.7 presents land degra- cropland degradation such as loss of water dation maps for each of Niger’s regions, based on availability due to erosion, and any cost related to Map 2.1. The results show that in relative terms, pastureland degradation such as loss in fodder degradation primarily affected Niamey (52 percent yields, it represents a conservative estimate. The 2 L AND DEGRADATION 15 MAP 2.4.  Regional land degradation maps Niamey Tillaberi Dosso Maradi Tahoua Diffa Zinder Agadez No data Degradation Stable Improvement Source: Trends.Earth 2016. 16 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FIGURE 2.7.  Cost of land degradation by region (US$) 350,000,000 300,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 USD 150,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 0 Tillaberi Tahoua Dosso Maradi Zinder Niamey Agadez FIGURE 2.8.  Cost of land degradation by crop (%) 3% 1% 7% Cowpea 14% 44% Millet Sorghum Rice Peanut Sesame Maize Fonio 31% Source: Raw data retrieved from GoN and analyzed by World Bank task team. crops selected for this study were cowpea, millet, Niger. Looking at the drivers of land degradation, it sorghum, rice, peanut, sesame, maize, and fonio, is noticeable that agricultural land has expanded which together account for more than 97 percent (Figure 2.7), encroaching onto the pastoral land, of the total crops produced in Niger. The valuation which itself has witnessed an immense intensifica- represents a broad estimate based on an average tion in terms of heads of livestock. Compounding percent yield loss derived from the ­literature and the impact of these trends, the region has been does not consider different levels of land degrada- affected by extreme drought, as indicated by the tion severity in Niger (see Annex 2 for the detailed PDSI (Figure 2.2), and is often marked by violent methodology and estimates). conflict. The high cost of land degradation in Tillaberi can be explained by the production of The region of Tillaberi alone bears nearly half the high-­value crops, such as cowpeas and rice, which cost of land degradation in Niger. In 2019, yield combined account for 60 percent of the foregone loss in Tillaberi reached US$287 million, or 44 crop yield loss in the region. percent of the total cost of land degradation in 2 L AND DEGRADATION 17 FIGURE 2.9.  Food insecurity in rural areas by region, Niger 50 40 30 20 10 0 Agadez Diffa Dosso Maradi Niamey Tahoua Tillaberi Zinder Severe Moderate At Risk Source: Institut National de la Statistique. 2018. Tableau de bord social. The cost of land degradation in Maradi and by moderate food insecurity. These regions and Zinder, where large-­scale land restoration proj- Tahoua are the most affected by severe food ects have been implemented since the 1980s, insecurity. is notably lower. Considered the breadbasket of Niger, the regions are central to the millet and Food security is in crisis particularly in the north- sorghum belt running horizontally across Niger ern parts of Tillaberi and Tahoua. Food assistance (see Map 2.5) and each yields 20 percent of millet allows the majority of people in Niger to cover production and 30 percent of sorghum production their food needs. However, in the border regions nationally. Those areas have seen an increase in of Tillaberi and Tahoua, humanitarian assistance crop production, since the 1980s, of an additional only covers 8–12 percent of households due to 500,000 tons of cereal per year due to farmer-­ difficulty of access caused by conflict and insecu- managed natural regeneration (FMNR, Box 2.1), rity (FEWS NET 2021). which may in part explain the lower yield losses in those regions. MALNUTRITION Food insecurity is a major cause of malnutrition 2.4. The impact on food in Niger (République du Niger 2016b). As in much security and malnutrition of Western Africa, food availability does not satisfy the daily per capita minimum intake as recom- mended by the World Health Organization (WHO) FOOD SECURITY (Ministère du Plan 2021). Consumption patterns in Niger show that food intake of most types of nutri- Food insecurity is a significant threat in several tion is insufficient (see Figure 2.11). However, the Nigerien regions. The number of Nigeriens nutrition deficit is partly compensated for through affected by moderate and severe food insecurity legumes, such as cowpeas, majorly produced by in rural areas in 2018 accounted for 9.8 and Niger. 2.6 percent, respectively, while the percentage of people at risk was 29.1 percent at the national Malnutrition is particularly high in remote areas level (Figure 2.9). Regional data show that Agadez, and in areas highly dependent on subsistence Diffa, and Tillaberi are the regions most affected farming. The prevalence of acute malnutrition, 18 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS BOX 2.2.  Improved livelihoods through FMNR in Maradi and Zinder In Maradi and Zinder, years of land restoration and expansion of agricultural activities to combat land degradation and desertification have proved that it is possible to improve local livelihoods through enhanced ecosystem health and function. Specifically, FMNR has effectively addressed key drivers of land degradation, including low soil fertility, drought, destructive winds, low yields, periodic crop failure, and fuelwood shortage. Using traditional and small-­scale water capture structures, such as stone bunds, zaï pits, and moon planting techniques, farmers in Maradi and Zinder have been able to increase cereal half-­ yields by 40 to 100 percent in rainfed agriculture. As a result of these sustainable land and water management practices, these areas of Niger are producing an additional 500,000 tons of cereal crops annually, resulting in 2.5 million people being more food secure. In the Aguie district, Niger, farmland that was virtually treeless in the early 1980s now sports 103–122 to trees per ha and sustainably harvested fuelwood is sold locally and across the border to Nigeria. Furthermore, gross income in Maradi has grown by US$17–21 million, equal to an additional US$1,000 per household per year. moon water harvesting techniques FIGURE 2.10.  Regreening using Zai pits and half-­ The social benefits of FMNR to local livelihoods have also been well documented. Because FMNR contributes to lifting yields and income, it has a positive effect on livelihoods, food secu- rity, resilience, and risk reduction. There are documented reports of reduced impact of drought and reduced incidence of flooding. Women and children’s burdens become lighter as fuelwood is easier to gather and is closer at hand. Women have more time to pursue economic and other making activities, and their status in the community is often lifted as they participate in decision-­ group activities and sometimes leadership. Children are more likely to go to school. Source: UN SDGs. https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/partnership/?p=30735. 2 L AND DEGRADATION 19 FIGURE 2.11.  Estimated per capita intake in grams per day of fruits, vegetables, whole grains, legumes, nuts and seeds, and milk, 2000–2017 250g 500g Fruits 360g 720g Vegetables 125g 250g Whole grains 60g 120g Legumes 20.5g 41g Nuts and seeds 435g 870g Milk Target Value 2000 2017 Niger Western Africa World Source: Global Burden of Disease. both global and severe, is above the high thresh- 10 percent. Interestingly, malnutrition rates are old level for public health at 12.7 percent and lowest in some of the areas with the highest land 2.6 percent, respectively (Figure 2.12). In the degradation rates, such as Tillaberi and Dosso. context of Niger, malnutrition is highest in remote This is likely due to the proximity to nearby urban areas, such as in Diffa region, where one in five areas around Niamey, where rural, food-­ insecure children under six years suffers from acute malnu- families have better access to basic food staples trition at twice the WHO’s high threshold level for and essential services. both global and severe acute malnutrition. In Maradi, Tahoua, and Zinder, where many rural Overall, in the absence of remedial actions, land households are dependent on subsistence degradation and high population growth are farming for their livelihood and therefore are likely to worsen the food security situation and vulnerable to weather-­ related shocks, malnutrition the nutritional outcomes in Niger in the long term. rates are all above the high threshold of Moreover, growing pressure on the capacity of FIGURE 2.12.  Prevalence of acute malnutrition (global/severe) in children 6–59 months by region in 2020 25 20 15 10 5 0 Agadez Diffa Dosso Maradi Niamey Tahoua Tillaberi Zinder Global Acute Malnutrition Severe Acute Malnutrition Source: Institut National de la Statistique. 2018. Tableau de bord social. 20 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS institutional systems to meet food needs will more modestly, tripling from US$51 million continue. As increasing population density in to US$171 million (FAO 2021a). Considering agropastoral areas reduces land availability and that local production is largely insufficient to hastens soil degradation, the evolution of food meet domestic demand, particularly in urban systems, agricultural production, and institutional areas, as most producers are smallholder safety nets becomes a major concern. subsistence farmers, land degradation poses a threat to the food trade balance in Niger. Imports of cereals are growing relative to other 2.5. The impact on food trade food categories (Figure 2.13). Approximately 20 percent of Niger’s cereal needs are met Niger produces about one-­ third of the minimum through imports, primarily from Nigeria. In an daily per capita food demand recommended by average year, 50 percent of imports cover cereal the WHO. Processed fruits and vegetables are deficits. Demand for millet exceeds production, mainly provided by commercial imports. The value even in a good year. The quantities of staple foods chains of dry cereals, including millet and sor- (primarily cereals) that are produced and traded ghum, are the basis of food in Niger and represent both internally and across borders are small scale, important economic opportunities for producers resulting in a thin market system that is vulnerable (République du Niger 2021b). In this context, an to even minor shocks. Cereal imports increased annual yield loss due to land degradation of about from 47 to 57 percent of the value of food imports 13 percent for millet and 11 percent for sorghum during 2014–2020. In comparison, the imports of significantly increases the risk of food insecurity animal products showed a decreasing trend, from while straining development opportunities for 12 percent to 5 percent of the total imports during Niger going forward. the same period. A worsening negative food trade bal- Land degradation is expected to affect future ance is observed in Niger. Food imports export earnings of agricultural products and increased fivefold between 1997 and 2017, livestock. Niger is a major producer and exporter from US$106 million to US$520 million. Food of live cattle. While the country has a sufficient exports also increased over this period, but quantity of live animals of the bovine species to FIGURE 2.13.  Food imports in Niger—2014, 2018, and 2020 (%) 60 % of total value of food imports 50 40 30 20 10 0 Cereals Animal Fruits and Animal or Livestock Miscellaneous Other products vegetables vegetable fats food and oils preparations 2014 2018 2020 Source: Ministry of Planning 2021. 2 L AND DEGRADATION 21 FIGURE 2.14.  Food exports in Niger—2014, 2018, and 2020 (%) 50 45 % of total value of food exports 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Cereals Animal Fruits and Animal or Livestock Miscellaneous Other products vegetables vegetable fats food and oils preparations 2014 2018 2020 Source: Ministry of Planning 2021. satisfy the population’s demand for meat and milk vulnerability to climate, along with population (Ministère du Plan 2021), land degradation is likely overcrowding and reduced household plot size. to reduce the future potential for export of live- stock. This trend can already be observed as Land resources play a critical role in shaping rural export of livestock has been decreasing during livelihoods as local communities are highly reliant 2014–2020 (Figure 2.14). Similarly, the impact of on livestock and rainfed subsistence farming for land degradation on the primary food export food and income. Formally, the agricultural sector source of Niger—fruits and ­vegetables—could employs three out of four Nigeriens, and land generate a negative food trade balance and make cultivation and breeding are the main sources of Niger more dependent on food imports. livelihoods in Niger. However, the sector is affected by an economy unable to absorb the growing labor force, resulting in a growing share of the workforce engaged informally in the sector 2.6. The impact on (FAO 2021b). At the household level, 97 percent of livelihoods rural households’ own livestock with an average herd size range from 13 to 16 heads for cattle and Niger includes three livelihood zones at high risk sheep, respectively (Table 2.1). of irregular rainfalls and frequent droughts. The country is divided into 13 livelihoods zones, The lack of appropriate irrigation technology pre- illustrated in Map 2.5. Three of them are at high vents farmers from tapping into the underutilized risk of irregular rainfalls and frequent drought: the groundwater aquifers and reducing their depen- agropastoral belt zone (NE04); the rainfed millet dence on traditional rainfed farming methods. and sorghum belt zone (NE05); and the cropping, This is a critical problem, particularly during the herding, and work outmigration zone (NE06), prolonged dry season that spans seven to eight which includes most of Zinder, Maradi, Tillaberi, months of the year. Women, most of whom do not Dosso, and Tahoua regions—they are among the own land, are disproportionately affected by the most densely populated areas of the country. lack of rainwater for agriculture and often rely on Among the three zones, the second one (NE05) sinks, a labor-­and time-­intensive method. Small consistently faces acute food insecurity due to its and medium farmers are also affected by financing 22 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS MAP 2.5.  Livelihood zones in Niger NE01 - Northeast Oases: Dates, Salt and Trade NE07 - Southern Irrigated Cash Crops NE02 - Air Massif Irrigated Gardening NE08 - Southwestern Cereals with Fan-Palm Products NE03 - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism NE09 - Niger River Irrigated Rice NE03 - Transhumant and Nomad Pastoralism—Camels NE10 - Dallols—Seasonal Water-Course Irrigated Crops NE04 - Agropastoral Belt NE11 - Southeastern Natron Salt and Small Basin Irrigated Dates NE05 - Rainfed Millet and Sorghum Belt NE12 - Komadougou Irrigated Peppers NE06 - Cropping/Herding with High Work Outmigration NE13 - Lake Chad Flood-Retreat Cultivation with Fishing Not Zoned (Desert) Source: FEWS NET 2011. TABLE 2.1.  Characteristics of rural livelihoods in Niger, 2012 Household characteristics Statistics Own livestock (%) 97 Milk production per day per cow (liters), 3 months after calving 1.4 Practice rotational grazing (%) 2.24 Household production systems (% of households) Crop production only 37 Agropastoral 38 Pastoral 26 Households using improved pasture management (%)a 4 Average herd size (number) Shoats (goats and sheep) herd size 16 Cattle herd size (number of heads) 13 Source: National Statistical Institute 2012. Note: a. Includes rotational grazing and managed natural regeneration. No farmer reported planted pasture. 2 L AND DEGRADATION 23 problems, such as limited access to credit for the migrated to other African destinations, mainly to purchase of efficient agricultural inputs and equip- neighboring countries. ment, including irrigation. Moreover, Niger suffers from spillover due to con- High dependence on rainfed agriculture makes flicts induced by non-­ state groups in neighboring rural livelihoods particularly vulnerable to land countries (WFP 2019). The deteriorating security degradation. Frequent shocks, decreasing land- situation in the border areas with Nigeria, Mali, and holding sizes, underutilized water resources, Burkina Faso displaced 567,000 people in 2020— overcrowding, poor natural resource manage- compared to 187,000 in 2019 and 158,000 in 2018 ment, inefficient yields, and limited use of modern (FEWS NET 2021). A considerable proportion of technologies and inputs are constraints to produc- these people arrived in Tillaberi, Tahoua, and Diffa. tion from year to year. Poor households often sell The influx of foreign migrants increases the reli- agricultural labor, engage in contract herding, and ance on humanitarian assistance, decreases food market cash crops to access food. availability, and raises prices, especially in local communities unable to absorb new populations Land degradation can lead to cereal production (FEWS NET 2021). deficits,20 subsequent shocks to food prices, and poorly regenerated pastures, and the most The above migration patterns often exacerbate vulnerable livelihood zones are likely to be most existing conflicts in Niger. In Diffa, the intensity affected. When land degradation affects agricul- of migration influx varies according to the level of tural productivity and the availability of fodder for security (FAO 2021b). For instance, in some areas livestock, it likely worsens food and income secu- with growing insecurity, resident livestock farmers rity. In a vicious circle, degraded land often forces migrate to safer areas, adding pressure to those farmers to adopt increasingly unsustainable land pastures. Cross-­ border transhumance circuits and and water management practices, such as over- trade routes for livestock between Diffa region and grazing and cultivating fallow land. In turn, this may Chad are modified to bypass areas that are beset increase food insecurity, destroy local livelihoods, by insecurity. This challenges the sustainable man- and deepen poverty. agement of transhumance corridors and grazing areas and often leads to conflict between pastoral farmers and migrant transhumant herders over access rights for natural resources. In this fragile 2.7. The impact on migration context, land degradation is likely to aggravate the and fragility outmigration of Nigeriens for better opportunities as well as the current conflicts between farmers Seasonal migration is a traditional coping mecha- and pastoralists. nism with unfavorable climatic conditions, such as erratic rainfall and droughts. During the dry season, many Nigeriens migrate to Southern Niger or other parts of West Africa to seek work as 2.8. Current efforts to laborers (Funk et al. 2019). For example, in 2015, address land degradation third of the total Nigerien migrants moved to one-­ thirds other rural areas of the country, while two-­ In September 2021, Niger adopted a new Land Policy with a historic land tenure reform. Informed by the key principles related to Voluntary 20 Commercialization rates of crops are small in Niger. Millet, which Guidelines on the Responsible Governance of represents 65 percent of the total cultivated area (Ministry of Tenure of Land, Fisheries and Forests, the Land Environment, Urban Sanitation, and Sustainable Development 2020), and sorghum, registering a commercialization rate of only 1 percent, Policy included a noteworthy participatory process are mainly subsistence crops (World Bank 2017a). known as the ‘États généraux du foncier rural’. 24 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS BOX 2.3.  Overview of institutional actors engaged in sustainable land management The Presidency of the Republic: This comprehends various specialized support-­ advice departments, including the Water and Environment and Sustainable Development unit, but also other structures that stand out for the promotion of sustainable development, in particular the High Commission to the ‘Nigeriens Nourish Nigeriens’ (3N) Initiative and the High Commission for the Development of the Niger Valley. The National Assembly: This institution is the representation of national elected officials who vote on all laws submitted by the Government, including those concerning the sustainable management of natural resources as defined by the constitution. The Cabinet of the Prime Minister: Within the framework of the coordination of government action, in addition to the Executive Secretariat, the Cabinet has specialized structures in promoting sustainable development, including the following: ● The National Mechanism for the Prevention and Management of Crises and Food Disasters which carries out sustainable land management actions, in the form of cash and or food for work, in collaboration with local actors to mitigate various crises at the local level and improve resilience climatic. ● The National Environmental Council for Sustainable Development: National focal point for post-­ Rio Conventions, which is the national body for coordinating and monitoring activities relating to these conven- tions and their protocols as well as any other convention that Niger may ratify in this area. ● The Ministry of Planning, Regional Planning and Community Development: It is in charge of intersectoral coor- dination, dialogue with technical and financial partners, mobilization of external resources, and monitoring of development programs and projects. It coordinates the exercise of integrating sustainable land management actions into the national strategies adopted by the Government. ● The Ministry of the Environment and Sustainable Development: It develops and implements policies, plans, programs, and projects relating to the preservation of the environment and the management of natural resources. The ministry has two general directorates: The General Directorate for the Environment and Sustainable Development (Direction Générale de l’Environnement et du Développement Durable, DGEDD) and the General Directorate for Water and Forests (Directorate General des Eaux et Forests, DGEF). In addition, the ministry has supported directorates including the Office of Environmental and Impact Studies and Assessment (Bureau National d’Évaluation Environnementale Et des Etudes d’Impact, BEEEI), the National Center for Ecological and Environmental Monitoring (Centre National de Surveillance Écologique et Environnementale, CNSEE), and the National Center for Forest Seeds (Centre National de Semences Forestières, CNSF). ● The Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock: It ensures the supervision of rural producers, acts in sustainable development through the fight against poverty in rural areas, promotes agricultural and pastoral production and the fight against food insecurity, develops ecosystems, and secures the living conditions of rural popula- tions. It manages the bases of agropastoral production. ● The Ministry of Hydraulics and Sanitation, the Ministries in charge of Finance, Foreign Affairs, Cooperation for African Integration and Nigeriens Abroad play a decisive role in the search for partnership, negotiation, and mobilization of financial resources for the implementation of sustainable land management practices. Local authorities: They are represented by municipalities (266) and regions (8). Each commune has a develop- ment planning tool, the Communal Development Plan (Plan de Développement Communal, PDC) with a strong sustainable land management component. Higher education and research institutions: They have operational units for the conservation of collected seeds and constitute places for testing sustainable land management innovations and techniques to be applied in rural areas. Civil society organizations: They are represented by around a hundred nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and associations working in the environment field, which have enabled increased accountability of the population in the implementation of natural resources management activities. 2 L AND DEGRADATION 25 This process was highly participatory, involving Despite progress in land restoration, Niger still all the actors of the various sectors and regions faces great financial barriers to scale up success- of the country during regional preparatory work- ful approaches and embrace a comprehensive shops, allowing in-­depth discussions on the land effort of new land rehabilitation and sustain- tenure situation in the country. It culminated in a able management projects. Based on the Cadre high-­level forum in 2018 with multi-­stakeholder Stratégique de la Gestion Durable des Terres au platforms and mechanisms that were able to build Niger et son Plan d’investissement 2015–2029 consensus around a strong and inclusive tenure (November 2014), there was an enormous financial reform. The process also had a positive effect on gap to cover. The financial resources acquired the establishment of national and regional transhu- for the implementation of the Cadre Stratégique mance committees in Niger. The preparation of the de la Gestion Durable des Terres activities were Land Policy has been accompanied by an action only 4 percent, with 96 percent remaining to be plan for the effective implementation of the newly obtained. adopted policy. Niger has a long tradition for participatory farmer-­ managed efforts to counteract the trend in land 2.9. Conclusion degradation. Supported by policy changes, Niger has successfully begun restoring agroforestry Land degradation in Niger is regionally concen- parklands on the heavily populated, agricultural trated along the Niger River in the regions of central Niger. In 2017, FMNR was plains of south-­ Niamey, Tillaberi, and Dosso and along the south- conducted on an estimated 7 million ha—a scale ern agricultural belt on the border with Nigeria. and longevity that attests to the economic viability Those areas have experienced warming tempera- of the approach (Wouterse and Badiane 2018). tures, more irregular and intensive rainfall events, Niger has also implemented several sustainable and higher windspeeds. They have also witnessed land management projects and has engaged in a population explosion, a steady conversion restoration and rehabilitation initiatives such as the of pastoral land to cropland, a rise in conflicts Great Green Wall. A wide number of institutional between resident farmers and herders, and a rise actors are actively engaged in sustainable land in migrants forced into Niger from conflict-­ zones of management (Box 3.3). neighboring countries. The GoN is placing significant importance on The cost of land degradation is a burden on the rehabilitation and development of ­ irrigated the national economy, as the value of yield loss systems as a means to increase production, accounted for 5 percent of the overall GDP. improve food security, and increase resilience Land degradation is an important factor affecting toward climate change. With the adoption of a agricultural productivity, food security, and the Strategy for Small-­ Scale Irrigation in Niger in 2015, trade balance. Cereal imports are growing relative the country has focused on the development of to other food categories: in 2020, it represented small-­scale irrigation to produce vegetables such 57 percent of the monetary value of total food as onions, tomatoes, sweet pepper, maize, and imports, up from 47 percent in 2014. In addition, out-­ season wheat. This form of irrigation has a of-­ the share of livestock in total exports has been real development potential. Notwithstanding the declining during the same period. arid nature of the country, Niger has an estimated irrigation potential of 270,000 ha, with some Land degradation erodes local livelihoods and 140,000 ha located in the Niger River Valley. In causes migration and fragility. Local adapta- 2015, only about 30 percent of that potential was tion techniques to climate variability and change used (FAO, n.d.). are insufficient to sustain traditional livelihoods. 26 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Pastoralists are pressured by the expansion of Niger has taken important proactive measures to agricultural cropland and by transhumant herd- ensure a participatory and inclusive approach to ers arriving in growing numbers from outside of begin rehabilitation of the land and the shared Niger. Crop farmers relying on rainfed agriculture access to natural resources. Through farmer-­ are vulnerable to changes in precipitation without led initiatives to assist the natural regeneration, local irrigation to mitigate the impact. This exacer- the adoption of a Land Policy that addresses bates existing vulnerabilities in host communities the underlying issues of land tenure, and the and further strains the natural resources base, approval of an irrigation strategy to make farmers which in some cases lead to further deterioration less dependent on rainfed agriculture, Niger has of the land as conflict between user groups and shown a great commitment to the sustainable land access rights comes at the expense of sustainable and water management of its natural resources. management practices. Support for the implementation and enforcement of those measures will be critical to addressing land degradation on a larger scale and reversing the trend in the most affected areas. 2 L AND DEGRADATION 27 28 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: World Bank Group Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group 3 Deforestation and forest degradation 3.1. Overview season (FAO 2001). In addition, climate change, abusive cuts, and strong pastoral pressure are Forest resources are notable environmental threatening many species in this zone (CNEDD assets for Niger. They provide a variety of goods 2011). The Sahelo-­Sudanese zone, accounting for and services, for example, wood for energy and about 1 percent of the country’s area, consists of timber, non-­wood forest products, carbon seques- a continuous herbaceous stratum dominated by tration, as well as social benefits, for example, perennial Gramineae and a woody stratum con- job creation. Moreover, ­ certain species have high taining shrubs and trees with quite varied recovery potential to improve the welfare of local commu- rates. nities. These include the Arabic gum trees, most of which concentrate in the Dosso and Tillaberi Available information on forest resources is moringa trees, which are primarily found regions;21 ­ limited and often inconsistent across sources. in Maradi and Tillaberi (Niamey in particular); National-­level data related to historical trends and Doum palm, which is mostly present in the and current extent of forests in Niger are ­ limited, Goulbi N’kaba Valley of the Maradi region. discontinued in time and space, and outdated.22 Therefore, in the absence of updated information, Deforestation and forest degradation are preva- this chapter provides an analysis of forest-­ related lent in the Sahelian domain of the country. The problems based on international datasets (FAO, Sahelian zone has vegetation varying from clear European Space Agency [ESA]). The analysis shrub formations in the north to more diffuse and encountered difficulties related to data incon- often degraded wooded formations in the south. sistency across these sources, primarily related Here, many areas are characterized by trees’ die- to differences in forest definitions and classifica- back, often accelerated by water stress with little tions. Against this backdrop, the following sec- prospects of reconstitution due to competition of tions introduce the Nigerien forest cover and the dominant species. Livestock producers have observed that the palatable species are becoming increasingly rare in the plateau, which is grazed in 22 For example, the latest State of the Environment reports 1991 data the rainy season and at the beginning of the dry on forest area in Niger, of 16 million ha (CNEDD 2021). Assessments are often discontinued in time and space and when available, information is often outdated. Adding to this, the various forest definitions and classifications have made comparative and trend 21 More than 90 percent of Arabic gum production is commercialized analysis difficult, be it for the quantification or characterization of unprocessed. forests and/or tree cover. 3 D EFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION 29 FIGURE 3.1.  Trees and shrublands areas in Niger (ha) 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 ha 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Niamey Agadez Diffa Dosso Maradi Tahoua Tillaberi Zinder 800 15,900 26,300 6,900 1,400 7,800 17,100 5,700 500 66,600 23,900 319,700 52,800 129,500 606,500 39,000 Trees Shrublands Source: ESA WorldCover 10 m—2020. Note: Areas shown in the table are rounded numbers. main species, the key drivers of deforestation and Figure 3.1 shows that tree cover is primarily found forest degradation, and the known extent of these in the regions of Diffa, Tillaberi, and Agadez while phenomena. This is followed by a summary of key shrublands24 are predominant in Tillaberi, Dosso, government efforts to address the above prob- and Tahoua (Figure 3.1). These estimates are lems and concluding remarks. based on the ESA’s WorldCover 10 m classification, as defined by Land Cover Classification System developed by the FAO. It is important to note that despite being default datasets for land degrada- 3.2. Forest cover tion reporting per UNCCD guidance documents, the ESA provides different data compared to the Based on the ESA data, Nigerien forest resources FAO Global Resource Assessment 2020 report, extend on 1.3 million ha. The ESA indicates that mostly due to existing differences in definitions trees23 are scattered and cover about 82,000 ha, and classifications. while the remaining area is covered by shrublands. 23 This class includes any geographic area dominated by trees with a cover of 10 percent or more. Other land cover classes (shrubs and/ 24 This class includes any geographic area dominated by natural up, permanent water bodies, and or herbs in the understorey, built-­ shrubs having a cover of 10 percent or more. Shrubs are defined so on) can be present below the canopy, even with a density higher as woody perennial plants with persistent and woody stems and than trees. Areas planted with trees for afforestation purposes and without any defined main stem being less than 5 m tall. Trees can plantations (for example, oil palm, olive trees) are included in this be present in scattered form if their cover is less than 10 percent. class. This class also includes tree covered areas seasonally or Herbaceous plants can also be present at any density. The shrub permanently flooded with freshwater except for mangroves. foliage can be either evergreen or deciduous. 30 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FIGURE 3.2.  Forest area (1,000 ha) 5,000 4,000 Other wooded lands, 2,840.00 3,000 2,000 Forests, 1,079.90 1,000 0 1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 FIGURE 3.3.  Area of natural forests (1,000 ha) 2,000 Naturally regenerating forests, 957.00 1,000 Planted forests, 122.50 - 1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: FAO FRA Niger 2020. According to the FAO, Niger’s forest resources 3.3. Drivers of deforestation cover 3.9 million ha (FAO 2020b). These include the following: and forest degradation ● Natural forests, which account for 1.1 million ha Nigerien forests have been subject to many driv- and include forest formations evolving particu- ers of deforestation and forest degradation. Since larly along waterways, marshy areas and the 1970s, forests have been affected by several lowlands, and dune soils with the predomi- anthropogenic factors, for example, expansion of nance of trees. About 89 percent are naturally the cultivated areas at the expense of forests due regenerating forests and comprise the forests to increased food demand; overcutting of trees of the W Park,25 while the remaining are for fuelwood; unsustainable harvesting of non-­ plantations (Figures 3.2 and 3.3). timber products and overgrazing. Moreover, natural factors, such as climate change and the natural ● Other wooded land, which extends on about process of aging, affected the health of existing 2.8 million ha and includes woody formations forests. The paragraphs below provide an analysis composed mainly of Combretaceae species. of key drivers. 25 A protected area maintaining a surface of 220,000 ha since 1990. 3 D EFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION 31 UNSUSTAINABLE HARVESTING OF to compensate for the loss of trees. Human FUELWOOD activities, especially bushfires and overgrazing, have also contributed to the poor condition of Wood is harvested at rates considerably higher gum plantations. In addition, the proliferation than forest productivity. Unsustainable harvesting of other less desirable invasive species in most of fuelwood accounts for more than 93 per- gum plantations and reduced infiltration due to cent of the b­ iomass used for the energy needs soil compaction contributed significantly to the at the household level (UEMOA 2019). Wood degradation of these resources (Ministere de consumption is about 0.6 kg/day/person for ­ l’Hydraulique de l’Environnement et de la Lutte large urban centers, 0.7 kg/day/­person for aver- Contre la Desertification 2003).26 age cities, and 0.8 kg/day/person in rural areas. ● Moringa tree. The production of moringa and These consumption patterns, exacerbated by the products is hampered by a ­ its by-­ defoliator population growth, have contributed to large-­ scale pest, Noorda blitealis Walker for which farm- ­ deforestation and to increasing desertification. ers lack a practical management approach. According to farmers, the perceived yield The need for fuelwood is no longer satisfied by losses ranged from 4 to 99 percent across wood removal in the areas surrounding ­ cities. For the regions, with the highest losses being example, for Niamey, Dosso, Maradi, Zinder, and recorded in the September–November produc- Diffa, fuelwood comes from remote areas of neigh- tion period. In addition, overharvest of moringa boring countries such as Burkina Faso, Benin, and compromising the production and the leaves is ­ Nigeria. Overall, wood supply is lower than the quality of the seeds, which are expensive for demand, suggesting a potential regressive trend an average producer in Niger. in forest resources (Ministère de l’Energie et du Pétrole 2015). ● Doum palm. Intensive harvesting of juvenile leaves strongly affects the development of the Doum palm throughout the country. The OVEREXPLOITATION AND POOR arborescent habit changes into a subterranean creeping habit, and palm stands are reduced HARVESTING PRACTICES OF NTFPs to dense carpets of leaves emerging from the ground; the field resembles a nursery of Doum These practices contribute significantly to the palms. Furthermore, the early harvesting of reduction of biodiversity in natural forests and to the green fruit, appreciated by children and forest decline. For example, unsustainable sam- women, is compromising the regeneration of pling of roots, bark, leaves, and fruits of several the tree (Kahn and Luxereau 2008). In addition, forest species has serious effects on the health the dams built in Nigeria negatively influence and vitality of trees often used for traditional phar- the doum areas, hence the degradation in the macopoeia. Moreover, the intensive exploitation downstream part of the Goulbi (in the west) of agroforest parks for fodder, particularly during despite the remarkable adaptation capacity the lean season, is another major concern threat- to drought and resilience to bushfires (Peltier, ening the potential of forest natural regeneration Serre Duhem, and Ichaou 2008). (FAO 2020a). Certain local species are particularly affected: ● Gum trees. They have deteriorated due to both natural and anthropogenic pressures. The drought of 1973–74 severely decimated the natural stands of gum trees. At the same time, 26 Despite the absence of a well-­organized sector, more and more landowners, especially the officials and traders, invest in gum tree trees are aging with an increasing mortality plantations. Acacia senegal is often the species of choice in land rate, and natural regeneration is insufficient restoration operations as interest in gum production increases. 32 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OTHER THREATS 3.4. Deforestation and forest Overgrazing is a widespread phenomenon on degradation: extent and the national territory, but to varying degrees. It is carbon loss observed especially in pastoral and agropastoral areas, where plants, particularly herbaceous, are In the past decade, the deforestation rate in extremely dependent on annual rainfall. Bushfires Niger has been close to double the Sub-Saharan are another threat that affect especially pastoral average. During 1990–2000, the annual loss of zones. In the past decade, burnt areas decreased natural forests was as high as 3.7 percent per substantially from nearly 257,500 ha in 2010 to year, according to the FAO. Although during about 22,100 ha in 2017. Overall, the average burnt 2010–2020 it fell to 1.1 ­percent, it remained much area during this period was about 131,700 ha per higher than the average deforestation rate for year. Zinder, Tahoua, and Maradi were the most Sub-­Saharan Africa, estimated at 0.6 percent (FAO affected regions (CNEDD and AFDB 2019). 2020a; World Bank 2020). Available data sug- gest that the regions of Dosso and Diffa are most affected.27 It is noteworthy that during this period, the Government made impressive reforestation efforts, for example, through the support provided MAP 3.1.  Carbon storage in Niger Source: ARIES. 27 Hansen/UMD/Google/USGS/NASA. 3 D EFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION 33 FIGURE 3.4.  Social cost of carbon due to forest loss during 2015–2020 44 43 43 42 42 41 41 USD million 40 40 39 39 38 37 36 6 7 8 9 0 01 01 01 01 02 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 16 17 15 18 19 20 20 20 20 20 Source: Retrieved from the GoN and calculated by the World Bank task team. to the assisted natural regeneration and farmer in biomass, estimated at about 23 t/ha29 (FAO management natural regeneration practices (FAO 2020b) and illustrated in Map 3.1; and (c) the 2020a). However, these efforts were conducted at shadow price of carbon, based on the low-­ bound a much slower rate (2,500 ha per year on aver- price provided by the World Bank guidelines age), compared to the average deforestation (World Bank 2017b). Figure 3.4 presents the rate (14,920 ha per year).28 distribution of the social cost per year of analysis. The extent of forest degradation is not known. However, it was reported that the forests known as forêts classées have been severely degraded and 3.5. Current efforts to more than 50 percent have lost their regenera- address key issues related to tion potential (CNEDD 2011). At the same time, the natural expansion of the ­forest seems improbable forests because the pressure on land is only increasing, The GoN developed strategic documents aiming making fallows less likely to appear (FAO 2015). at the sustainable management of ­ forest resources. A recent cornerstone initiative is the The social cost of carbon associated with forest National Forestry Plan 2012–2020. Developed in loss between 2015 and 2020 attains over line with national and international commitments, US$205 million. It represents the social damage the National Strategy for Sustainable Development that would result from emitting ­carbon dioxide in (2003), and the ‘3N—Nigériens Nourrissent les the atmosphere. The economic valuation is based Nigériens’ initiative, the National Forestry Plan on (a) the loss of forest cover during 2015–2020, recognizes the livelihoods’ dependence on forests derived from FAO data; (b) the unit carbon storage 29 According to FAO’s latest Forest Resources Assessment for Niger, the carbon stored by natural forests in Niger is estimated at 17.95 t/ 28 The same document estimates the net forest loss of 12,420 ha per ha for the aboveground biomass and 5.14 t/ha for the below-­ ground year, through the difference between the two numbers (FAO 2020a). biomass in 2020. 34 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS TABLE 3.1.  Additional strategic documents and relevant texts Strategic documents Promoted technologies Economic and Social Development Strategy (PESDS 2022–2026) updating ESDS, FMNR, Integrated Soil Fertility Management 2012–2015 (ISFM), irrigation, improved fodder management Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy (Stratégie de FMNR, ISFM, irrigation, improved fodder Développement Durable et de Croissance Inclusive, SDDCI 2021–2035) management National Action Plan for the Integrated Management of Water resources (Plan Irrigation, sustainable land management, d’Action National de Gestion Intégrée des Ressources en Eau, PANGIRE 2017) reforestation, and rehabilitation of degraded lands National Strategy and Plan for Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change (Stratégie FMNR, ISFM, irrigation, improved fodder et Plan National de l’Adaptation de l’Agriculture, SPN2A 2020–2035) management Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) FMNR, ISFM, irrigation, improved fodder management National Environmental Plan for a Sustainable Development (Plan National pour FMNR, ISFM, irrigation, improved fodder l’Environnement et le Développement Durable, PNEDD 2000) management Rural Land Policy in Niger—Action Plan (2021–2027) FMNR, ISFM, irrigation Sustainable Livestock Development Strategy (Stratégie de Développement Durable Improved fodder management de l’Élevage, SDDEL 2013–2035) Association for the Revitalization of Livestock in Niger (Association pour la Improved fodder management Redynamisation de l’Élevage au Niger, AREN) Strategic Framework for Sustainable Land Management (SFLM) in Niger and its FMNR, ISFM, irrigation, improved fodder Investment Plan (2015–2029) management National Policy for the Management of Wetlands and its Action Plan, 2019–2021 Irrigation, integrated natural resources management and sets a roadmap to increase forests area, exploitation, and contribution to the households’ improve their management, restore degraded and national economy. Table 3.1 quotes other ecosystems, and invest in research and develop- strategic documents aiming at the sustainable ment for adaptation to climate change (Ministère forest management and improved livelihoods of de l’Hydraulique et de l’Environnement and FAO local populations. 2012). In addition, according to Niger’s Land Degradation Neutrality targets, the GoN has In 2014, the Ministry of Environment put in place committed to halt land conversion of forests, a strategic framework for sustainable land shrublands, and wetlands into other land uses and management and an investment plan for 2015– increase carbon stocks by 292,000 t by 2030 2029. These initiatives were conducted with the through improved farming and agroforestry support of the United Nations Development practices (République du Niger 2017). Furthermore, Programme (UNDP), World Bank, UNCCD, recognizing the importance of forest resources in TerrAfrica, and New Partnership for Africa’s rural livelihoods, a Strategy and action plan for the Development (NEPAD). The strategy foresees the protection and promotion of Non-­ Timber Forest improvement of forest production on the basis of Products was developed in 2020 with the objec- more informed investments. In this light, the coun- tive of enhancing their potential, sustainable try has adopted certain fiscal tools to increase 3 D EFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION 35 BOX 3.1.  Differential taxation, a fiscal instrument to protect forest resources The taxation scheme on fuelwood harvesting stipulates taxes decline as the distance from the town increases, which incites traders to look for wood over longer distances in the bush instead of overharvesting. As such, for one stere1 of wood purchased for CFAF 1,315 by a transporter, CFAF pastoral management of the harvested forest (setting up mulching with 113 is reinvested in the silvo-­ branches and seeding to regenerate the grassy and woody cover, and so on), and CFAF 295 is paid into the village fund to serve various purposes such as maintaining the school, the dispensary, the places of worship, the roads; setting up a veterinary pharmacy; and building a store for cereals or concentrates for the livestock; and so on. Accordingly, if all the wood for Niamey were to come from the managed forests, CFAF 150 million would be reinvested each year for village develop- ment, and CFAF 60 million for silvo-­ pastoral management. Lastly, CFAF 15 million would go to the state and CFAF 40 million to the local communities to enhance their administration and make them independent with regard to current operations. Source: Extracted from FAO’s Management of Natural Forests of Dry Tropical Zones Case Study 4: Niger’s Forest Management Experience (fao.org). The case study was carried out based on the following documents: Bertrand (1990); Hamadou (1994); Madon (1995); Montagne et al. (1994); Peltier (1991); Peltier et al. (1994a, 1994b); Seed and CTFT (1991). 1 The stere or stère (st) is a unit of volume in the original metric system equal to one cubic meter. revenues while protecting forest resources, such scheme was laid out to ensure that the local as differential taxation (Box 3.1). However, the communities, traders, and the Government ben- availability of financial resources remains a efit from the sustainable exploitation of forest bottleneck; the economic potential of the emerg- resources. ing mining sector, if sustainably extracted, can mobilize the needed resources to reverse degra- To reduce pressure on forests, the GoN decided dation trends and operationalize the strategy laid to reduce the reliance on traditional biomass to out in 2014 for sustainable land management, 67 percent of the energy mix in Niger (Ministere particularly of forests in Niger (République du de l’Energie 2019). In this light, it aims at improving Niger 2017). efficiency through the National Household Energy Program initiated in 2015 and the Program for the The GoN developed several regulatory texts that Promotion of Improved Stoves, as well as other address the exploitation of forest resources. For alternatives including carbonized mineral coal, example, the Rural Code includes provisions for biofuel energy generation, liquefied petroleum forest management in articles 58 to 107, in addition gas (LPG), solar cooking stoves, and the use of to its provisions for the management of agricultural renewable energy sources for electricity produc- and animal resources. Together with the Forest tion (Adamou et al. 2021). In addition, several land Law n° 2004-­ 040 dated June 8, 2004, these texts restoration projects were implemented in Niger to place a high importance on meeting the com- reverse degradation and build capacity and knowl- munity needs while maintaining forest resources, edge base at the national level (Box 3.2). Allocated protecting biodiversity, and accounting for local resources, though useful, remain insufficient in interests. The formal local management structures addressing knowledge gap and reverse degrada- are created for the management of forest prod- tion trends. sharing ucts from extraction to trade; and a profit-­ 36 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS BOX 3.2.  Land restoration initiatives in Niger Community Action Program (CAP) 1), US$39.42 million (CAP-­ Actual cost: US$52.41 million (CAP-­ 3). Status: Closed. 2), US$70.4 million (CAP-­ The World Bank has played a key role in helping Niger in the implementation of its Rural Code throughout phase adjustable program loan designed to empower local governments its history. The CAP is a three-­ and communities to progressively achieve their collective local development aims in a participatory and sustainable way. The first phase CAP-­ 1 (2003–2010) was designed to support learning by doing. It helped establish local planning and financing mechanisms in 54 communes with instruments and processes designed to foster participation and transparency and build trust in the new electoral system. It included a wide range of activities, for example, capacity building, transfer of financial resources to communes and communities, financial management systems, policies and regulations on natural resource management, and natural resource and agricultural extension work. The second phase CAP-­ 2 extended the local planning and financing mechanisms to 164 communes, or 65 percent of all communes in the country. The program mainly financed community development plans; a local investment fund that included support for economic, social, and environmental subprojects; and technical assistance for institutional strengthening at the community, commune, and national levels. The third phase CAP-­ 3 facilitated the GoN and communes in strengthening its local development planning and implementation capacities, to support the targeted population in improving agricultural productivity and to respond promptly and effectively to an eligible crisis or emergency. It addressed sustainable management of land use, land use change and forestry, agro-­ ecosystem services or forest ecosystem services in dry lands sustaining the livelihoods of local communities and promoted climate-­ smart technologies and agriculture. The CAP helped finance the planting of 7,000–8,000 ha of Acacia Senegal, which facilitated land restoration term vulnerability reduction in designated parts of the program area. The Biocarbon Fund-­ and short-­ financed plantations included as part of this project were managed by 26 rural communities and spread across six separate administrative regions in Niger. In total, Nigerien communes received US$346,650 in Biocarbon Fund payments during the CAP. Community Action Project for Climate Resilience Actual cost: US$74.68 million. Status: Closed In 2010, the GoN developed its Strategic Program for Climate Resilience with the general objective to increase food security in Niger by improving resilience of populations and production systems to climate change. The Strategic Program for Climate Resilience rested on four complementary investment projects, including the Community Action Project for Climate Resilience. The project promoted an innovative approach by addressing climate-­ resilient sustainable land management as well as social protection for the most vulnerable populations. It sought to support climate resilience of populations and their production systems in targeted communes by enhancing the absorptive capacity and preparedness of populations and their production systems against the adverse impact of climate change. It included technical assistance and investments to improve the resilience of agro-­ pastoral systems by silvo-­ (a) scaling up sustainable land management practices to reduce climate change impacts through capacity-­ building activities in the areas of agriculture, agroforestry, agropastoralism, and pastoralism, selected with a gender-­ sensitive approach and (b) financing activities to improve agricultural productivity (40 percent), sus- tainable management of forest resources (30 percent), and productivity of grazing areas (30 percent). About 125,400 households benefited from pastoral support and 108,400 households from forest support. Source: Compiled from World Bank project reports. 3 D EFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION 37 Several institutions are involved in forest man- it for timber products and/or NTFP—most impor- agement in Niger. The Ministry of Environment tantly the Arabic gum sector. However, it is unclear is the leading public institution mandated with to which extent these texts have contributed to the management of forest resources. The sector the conservation and sustainable management is also steered by several inter-­ministerial com- of forest resources. In addition, as the National mittees and bodies which oversee the develop- Forestry Plan expired in 2021, it would be judicious ment and implementation of sectoral policies, to undertake an evaluation of the plan’s outcomes, strategies, and action plans, for example, the before a new planning exercise is initiated, with Commission for the 3N Initiative, the Committee consideration of the ongoing GoN commitments to for the Implementation of the Rural Development regional and international conventions. Strategy, the National Council for Sustainable Development, and other institutions oversee- The analysis indicated that deforestation and for- ing Niger’s regional and international commit- est degradation are significant problems in Niger. ments. In addition, the private sector and civil However, the lack of consistent data related to society organizations are central to the sustain- forest cover and extent of degradation is a major able management of forest resources. Some challenge in determining the real magnitude of contribute to the organization of the sector: the these issues. Indeed, in the absence of a national National Association of Professionals of Arabic inventory, available databases (for example, FAO, Gum (Association Nationale des Professionnels ESA) often rely on experts’ judgments instead de la Gomme Arabique, ANGA), the National of field data and include outdated information. Association of Wood Harvesters (Association Furthermore, forest resources management is Nationale des Exploitants de Bois, ANEB), the characterized by a limited understanding of the Federation of Rural Markets for fuelwood, while regeneration dynamics, grazing potential, and for- other groups and networks operate in the field of estry potential for processing and commercializa- traditional medicine and practices. tion. Lastly, the forest contribution to the national economy is undervalued: for example, the eco- nomic value of the NTFPs and of other ecosystem 3.6. Conclusion services (for example, erosion control, water pro- tection) is largely unknown. This further affects the Since the 1990s, the GoN has invested in the man- development of appropriate policies, strategies, agement of the forest resources, testifying to their and even the allocation of public spending on importance to the local and national economies. forest-­related initiatives. A set of concrete recom- Legal and regulatory texts have been developed mendations addressing these issues is provided in to organize the management and exploitation, be Chapter 5. 38 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group 3 D EFORESTATION AND FOREST DEGRADATION 39 40 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group Photo: World Bank Group 4 Climate change 4.1. Overview (World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, n.d.). Climate change is predicted to translate into Niger is the seventh most vulnerable country to an increase of Niger’s average temperature up to climate change in the world, according to the about 6oC by 2100, depending on the scenario Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative country (Figure 4.1)31 (World Bank Climate Change index.30 With a large share of its land under desert, Knowledge Portal, n.d.). The annual number of the country is characterized by hot climate, with very hot days—days with daily maximum tempera- high temperatures year round, an intense dry tures above 35oC—is projected to rise substantially season, and a rainy season with irregular rainfalls and with high certainty, particularly in FIGURE 4.1.  Projected mean temperature in Niger 36 34 32 30 28 26 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Hist. Ref. Per., 1986-2005 RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5 Source: World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal. 30 According to the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative country index, Niger ranks 176 out of 182 countries with a high vulnerability score (0.677) and low readiness score (0.338). 31 The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) try to capture future trends. They make predictions of how concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere will change in future as a result of human activities. The four RCPs range from very high (RCP8.5) to very low (RCP2.6) future concentrations. The numerical values of the RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) refer to the concentrations in 2100. 4 C LIMATE CHANGE 41 FIGURE 4.2.  Niger’s GHG reference profile for 2014 2% 9% Agriculture, forestry and others land use changes Energy Waste 1 2 3 88% Source: CNEDD & AFDB. (2020). western Niger (Tomalka et al. 2021). It is south-­ Climate Change (UNFCCC) to move the country’s noteworthy that precipitation trends are highly development pathway toward a green economy. uncertain, with projections ranging from a slight The document aims for unconditional reductions decrease to stronger increase of the total annual of 13 percent from this sector compared to the precipitation. business-­as-­usual scenario for the same year and conditional reductions of about 23 percent.33 Niger has low GHG emissions, most of which originate from the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) changes. Niger’s GHG emis- sions have been estimated at about 0.1 tons 4.2. Expected impacts of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) per capita in climate change 2018.32 This is substantially lower than the Sub-­ Saharan average, assessed at 0.8 tCO2e per capita Climate change is expected to exacerbate the for the same year. The most recent national GHG existing vulnerabilities in Niger. Since 1968, the inventory indicates that the AFOLU sector was the country has suffered from frequent droughts, single most important contributor, with 88 percent storms, and floods, which caused significant of the total (Figure 4.2). damages on agriculture, food security, and liveli- hoods.34 Climate change is projected to increase The country aims at concrete emission reduc- their frequency and severity in the coming century: tions from AFOLU sector by 2030. Under a for example, floods are expected to increase both business-­as-­usual scenario, the AFOLU sector in intensity and frequency where it will have is likely to quadruple its emissions during 2014– devastating effects in the densely populated 2030, from 24 million tCO2e to 107 million tCO2e. southern areas (Tomalka et al. 2021). In addition, (République du Niger 2021a). However, the GoN has made a firm commitment through its NDC to 33 There is a level of uncertainty about future emissions, particularly the United Nations Framework Convention on beyond 2020. Predictions are based on varied assumptions of economic growth and the anticipated capacity and technical support from development partners. 32 Extracted from World Bank Open Data: https://data.worldbank.org/ 34 They affected over 3 million people in 2000 and 2001 and over 7 indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?locations=NE. million people in 2002. 42 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS scale sectoral vulnerabilities and potential climate change impacts in Niger TABLE 4.1.  Broad-­ Sector Impacts Agriculture • Crop loss and reduced yields owing to increased temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and increased water stress • Increased incidence of pests and diseases • Increased potential for conflict between farmers and pastoralists • Shifting agricultural seasons due to changes in seasonal rainfall patterns • Desertification and loss of agricultural and grazing land • Increased migration from rural to urban areas Fisheries • Reduced size of Lake Chad, reducing fisheries catches • Encroachment of aquatic weeds • Increased migration of fishermen in search of more productive waters • Reduced fishery productivity owing to increased water temperatures and decreased river flows Water resources • Increased variability of run-off, leading to increased variability in surface water availability • Increased demand for irrigation water coupled with reduced irrigation water potential • Increased potential for conflict over limited water resources Built infrastructure and • Increased potential for damage to infrastructure, especially in urban areas and near the Niger river, human settlements owing to flooding • Increased potential for negative impacts on some infrastructure owing to extreme temperatures • Damage to or destruction of roads owing to increased intensity of extreme rainfall events • Increased potential for migration from rural to urban areas Human health • Increased risk of water-borne diseases, such as cholera and diarrhea • Increased prevalence of vector-borne diseases such as malaria • Increased potential for malnutrition and stunting, especially during drought • Increased prevalence of respiratory diseases due to increased Harmattan winds Source: African Development Bank 2018. the country already suffers from other vulnerabili- IMPACTS ON GDP ties: high dependence on rainfed agriculture for food security, food crisis brought about by severe Most climate models expect Niger’s GDP to be droughts experienced in recent years (2005, negatively affected by climate change. For exam- 2008, 2010, and 2012), pervasive poverty, and ple, Stanford University predicts an 80 percent political instability. Climate change is expected to decrease in the GDP per capita by 2100 compared compound these problems, which could further to 2020 (Figure 4.3).35 In the short run, the social trigger new conflicts, humanitarian crisis, and and economic impact of the health pandemic is forced migration (USAID 2017). Table 4.1 provides a threatening to wipe out five years of development list of vulnerabilities and potential climate change progress (Savadogo, Tsimpo Nkengn, and Sanoh impacts in Niger. The next paragraphs summarize 2022). quantified results of the available literature that ­ some of these impacts. 35 Based on Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel (2015); https://web.stanford. edu/~mburke/climate/map.php 4 C LIMATE CHANGE 43 FIGURE 4.3.  Economic impact of climate change in Niger Economic Impact of Climate Change on Niger 100 75 50 % change in GDP/cap Likelihood climate change will reduce Niger’s GDP per capita by 25 • More than 0%: 100% 0 • More than 10%: 100% • More than 20%: 100% –25 • More than 50%: 99% –50 –75 –100 Burke Hsiang Miguel 2015 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Source: Stanford University 2015. IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE farmers’ diversification options. Moreover, the study suggested that the grazing potential is Several studies were conducted at the regional likely to decrease in the south and increase and country levels, with distinct results: in the central regions of Niger (Röhrig et al. 2022). ● Niger could potentially lose its entire rainfed agriculture by 2100 (USAID 2017). Smallholder ● Yields of heat-­and drought-­ sensitive crops farmers are increasingly challenged by the are projected to decline, while those of less-­ uncertainty and variability of weather. Since sensitive crops are expected to increase, crops are predominantly rainfed, yields highly according to the climate risk profile developed depend on water availability from precipitation for Niger by the German Federal Ministry for and are prone to drought. However, the length Economic Cooperation and Development and intensity of the rainy season is becom- (Tomalka et al. 2021). Cowpeas and groundnuts ing increasingly unpredictable, and the use of are so-­called C3 plants, which follow a differ- irrigation facilities remains limited (Tomalka et ent metabolic pathway than maize, millet, and al. 2021). sorghum (C4 plants), and benefit more from the CO2 fertilization36 effect under higher concen- ● There may be an increase in the mean annual tration pathways. This would result in increased precipitations throughout the century, which yields by 54 percent (cowpeas) and 52 percent could translate into increased suitability of (groundnuts) by 2080 relative to 2000. millet, according to a recent study conducted by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). This would be due to greater annual rates of groundwater recharge and higher annual mean river discharge. However, the potential for multiple cropping would 36 CO2 fertilization effect is when the increase of CO2 in the decrease from mid-­ century onward, limiting atmosphere increases the rate of photosynthesis in plants. 44 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Given the level of uncertainties in the different mod- IMPACTS ON HEALTH37 els, the overall adaptation strategies should take a cautionary approach and focus on improved and Niger faces several key challenges, including more climate-­resistant crop varieties. borne dis- mortality and morbidity related to vector-­ eases (for example, malaria), water-­borne diseases diarrhea and related to flooding (for example, ­ IMPACTS ON WATER cholera), meningitis, and so on. Many of them are expected to become more severe due to climate Sahel is one of the most water-­stressed regions of change. Examples include the following: the world. The region’s water supply is unevenly ● Malaria. The risk of malaria is projected to fall distributed, poorly accessible due to undeveloped due to rising temperatures; however, some hydraulic supply systems, and crosses national areas are likely to become more vulnerable to boundaries. A global economic model developed the disease, such as those exposed to more by the World Bank suggests that climate-­ related frequent floods. water scarcity could lead to a decrease of the GDP in the Sahel by as much as 11.7 percent by 2050 ● Meningitis. Niger is part of the African (World Bank 2016). In Niger, climate change is Meningitis Belt,38 which is at high risk of expected to affect water supply in different ways: epidemics of meningitis. Temperature ­ increases and low humidity due to climate ● Reductions in water flows from neighboring change have the potential to prepone the countries. More than 90 percent of Niger’s seasonal onset of meningitis and significantly water supply comes from neighboring coun- increase the number of cases. tries (USAID 2017). Hence, a reduction in the flow of transboundary waters can affect Niger’s ● Malnutrition. Climate change poses a threat to water supplies. For example, the Fouta Djallon food and water supplies, which can increase Highlands in Guinea, West Africa’s ‘water the risk of malnutrition and hunger. tower’, are expected to experience rainfall ● Heat-­related mortality. Rising temperatures reductions of up to 26 percent by 2100, affect- will result in more frequent heatwaves in ing basins such as the Niger River (USAID Niger. The population affected by at least one 2017). heatwave per year is projected to increase ● Changes in rainfalls, temperatures, and from 1.7 percent to 12.0 percent during 2000– drought patterns. Surface water is limited and 2080. Consequently, heat-­ related mortal- often seasonal, making groundwater a primary ity is predicted to increase threefold during source of water for many people in the coun- the same period if no adaptation to hotter try. Changes in rainfall patterns, increases in ­ conditions takes place.39 temperature, and more frequent droughts may contribute to a decline in surface water and groundwater availability and accessibility. This is concerning, especially in the current context where less than half of the population in Niger has access to safe drinking water (Wateraid, n.d.). The situation highlights the urgency to 37 This section relies heavily on the information drawn from Tomalka et invest in water saving measures and technolo- al. (2021). gies for future water consumption. 38 It is a region in Sub-Saharan Africa, extending from Senegal to Ethiopia. It is especially recognized to be at high risk of epidemics of meningococcal and pneumococcal meningitis. (https://www.who.int/ news-room/fact-sheets/detail/meningitis). 39 The estimates of this paragraph refer to the RCP6.0 scenario. 4 C LIMATE CHANGE 45 4.3. Government efforts to There are regional efforts that support Niger in tackling climate change. Niger is a ­ member of address climate change the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which is working toward a coordinated The GoN recognizes that the development of the smart agriculture into effort to integrate climate-­ country depends largely on its ability to better regional and national policy. Furthermore, the manage all its natural resources by promoting a Niger Basin Authority is part of a transboundary more holistic approach that is oriented toward river basin organization working cohesively with the stakeholders, and particularly toward rural several states for the protection and restoration communities. In this context, over the last years, of shared water resources (USAID 2018). Regional several national institutions have been created coordination on climate change issues needs to and/or strengthened with a direct focus on cli- be strengthened for better knowledge and capac- mate vulnerability and change. For example, the ity on adaptation and mitigation efforts. Executive Secretariat of the National Council for the Environment for Sustainable Development is the national focal point of the so-­called Rio and post-­Rio conventions on Biological Diversity, the 4.4. Conclusion fight against desertification, climate change, and The analysis highlighted that Niger is vulner- political focal point of the GEF; and the Permanent able to climate change. Average temperatures Secretariat of the National Mechanism for the will increase throughout the country, but the Prevention and Management of Food Crises, south-­ west will be particularly affected by a rise which is the executive body responsible for the in the number of very hot days. Floods will be overall supervision of the NDCs. Today, the institu- more intense and frequent in the ­ country’s south. tional landscape on environmental issues in gen- Precipitation trends are highly uncertain, with eral and on those related to climate variability and projections ranging from a slight decrease to change in particular is rich and diverse in Niger. stronger increases of the total annual precipitation. These changes in climate are likely to affect the Niger adopted strategies and policies that seek country’s economy and the health of its popula- to tackle climate change and variability. Niger tion. Although the results of available studies do is signatory to the UNFCCC, where it ratified the not always converge to the same specific con- Paris Agreement and submitted its NDC. The clusions, some suggest that yields of heat-­and document identified financial and technical sup- drought-­ sensitive crops might decline, while those port to the AFOLU sector as high priority. In addi- of more resistant crops (cowpeas, groundnuts) tion, several key strategies and programs have might increase. In addition, there is a risk that been developed, including the National Policy climate change will restrict the water availability on Climate Change (Politique nationale sur le and accessibility and exacerbate health outcomes, changement climatique, PNCC) and the National such as malaria, meningitis, and heat-­ related Strategy and Plan of Action for Climate Change mortality. and Variability (Stratégie nationale et plan d’action sur les changements et la variabilité climatiques, Given that Niger is a low GHG emitting country, it SNPA-­ CVC). Considering the potential offered by is important to implement adaptation measures, the country’s resources, Niger highlights as top such as sustainable land management practices, ­ priority adaptation measures that would result alternative livelihoods, and more efficient water in higher co-­benefits with respect to climate harvesting techniques. In addition, it would be use- change mitigation. ful to put in place efficient disaster risk manage- ment and disaster risk financing systems focused on its most vulnerable but productive areas (south). 46 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group 4 C LIMATE CHANGE 47 48 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group Photo: Olivier Girard / World Bank Group 5 Recommendations Introduction This CEA demonstrated that environmental country’s GDP, and investing more on education degradation is worrisome in Niger. Land degra- (literacy training, business skills, nutrition, family dation is a priority problem: losses in crop yields planning, and so on). affect particularly Tillaberi, Tahoua, and Dosso regions, with potential future impacts on food It is important that the GoN plays an essential security, livelihoods, and migration. Deforestation role of ensuring proper donor coordination. This rates are nearly double the Sub-­ Saharan average, would provide good visibility on the activities that and forest degradation threatens the health of are being implemented in the different regions valuable local species. Moreover, climate change and, more importantly, would identify synergies is likely to have negative implications on agricul- between the activities and/or projects for a higher ture, water resources, and people’s health. impact. For example, landscape projects should, to the extent possible, geographically overlap with Addressing these problems is important for the emergency projects on food insecurity, droughts, country’s sustainability, particularly in the current floods, and so on, as well as social protection context of poverty, food insecurity, and fragility. projects. This would ensure that the most affected Financing needs are large; however, available population is receiving support from all fronts, funds are just a fraction of what is needed. While where its immediate needs are being met and its the answer on how to mobilize more financing longer-­ term livelihoods are being secured. is beyond the scope of this report, this chapter provides some guidance on how to use exist- Given that Niger is highly dependent on its natural ing resources more efficiently to achieve better resources, such as its land and forests, focus impact. should be on their restoration and sustainable utilization, especially in highly populated and Given the multiple emergencies faced by the productive areas, where vulnerability is the country, a simple, yet effective, way forward would highest. As per the findings of this report, the be to focus on more integrated projects where southern areas of the country, in particular on one hand, issues requiring urgent attention Tillaberi, Tahoua, and Dosso, are found to be are being addressed and on the other, activi- highly vulnerable, and therefore focus should be ties focused on longer-­term solutions are being there. The objective involves a three-­ step implemented. Resilience aspects should consider approach: (1) to restore the productivity of rural youth employment, given the young age of degraded land and forests; (2) to increase yields of the majority of the population, gender inclusion, restored land utilizing sustainable land and forest women’s high potential in contributing to the management practices, and (3) to improve 5 R ECOMMENDATIONS 49 livelihoods by efficiently engaging in value chains MP model would support communities and help or other successful alternative livelihoods. In promote the Government’s decentralization addition, better ownership of natural resources by strategy (Box 5.1). local communities as well as improved participa- tion and inclusion of key members of the commu- The following recommendations are catego- nity is essential to enhance good governance of rized into three groups: Enhancing operations, natural resources, leading to reduced degradation Supporting policy, and Building knowledge. and conflict over natural resources. Scaling up the BOX 5.1.  Maison du Paysan The Maison du Paysan (MP) is a transformative community-based institution that improves planning and coordination at local and national levels, supports citizen engagement and participation, and underpins the GoN’s decentralization strategy. The concept and interest in the establishment of MPs at the commune level was first introduced by the national food security initiative, ‘Nigeriens Nourish Nigeriens’ Initiative, in 2012. The World Bank Niger Community Action Project for Climate Resilience (P125669), which closed in 2021, piloted the MP concept in a dozen municipalities. The services provided through the MPs delivered direct benefits to rural producers and brought national services closer to local needs through a feedback mechanism between national and local policies and practices. The MPs provide integrated services to local communities through several modules tailored to the needs of the community. They are central to farmers and rural producers seeking advisory services, training, and equipment to improve sustainable and climate-resilient land management practices. The MPs were implemented through a bottom-up, results-oriented management approach, supported by a coaching system, which yielded excellent results and holds great potential for replication in other communes. Coaching offers a new paradigm for capacity building and implementation support, particularly in rural and fragile areas. The MPs are now powerful organizational anchors for local communities to continue their engagement in sustainable agro-silvo-pastoralism, to scale up local best practices and to support social resilience activities because they provide a physical space for coordination of and access to services and information. The potential for replication is high, and there is growing interest from neighboring communes and national ministries to deploy the MP concept on a wider scale. 50 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 5.1. Enhancing operations retention and infiltration into the soil by forming a barrier that slows down runoff and spreads ● Promote farmers’ access to financing and it more evenly over the land. Such techniques to Farmers’ Field Schools (FFS) linked to the include contour stone bunds built with earth implementation of sustainable land manage- or stones, which increase the amount of water ment techniques. Niger strongly relies on inter- available to crops and vegetation, thus contrib- national funding to scale up implementation of uting to the restoration of degraded land. Over environmental projects supporting sustainable up of sediment and time, this results in build-­ land management. For farmers, direct costs formation of terraces, which are favorable consist of labor time and knowledge acquisi- conditions for natural vegetation to emerge tion through experience. Thus, targeted assis- along the structure. Evidence shows that bunds tance to improve farmers’ access to economic that have been in place for over 15 years have up capital and to resources to furnish start-­ positive effects on yields. Other successful facilitate a knowledge exchange through FFS techniques include modern boreholes and drip to remove technical constraints for the applica- irrigation. tion of sustainable land management farming ● Introduce improved and climate-­ resistant crop practices is needed, particularly in the regions varieties to increase production. To mitigate most affected by land degradation. Focusing the risk of food insecurity, Niger must invest on the most affected areas will increase the in improved seed varieties. In the millet and possibilities to achieve results that positively cowpea belt, where the demographic pres- affect the environment, the population, and the sure is high, the arable land is almost entirely economy. in use. Consequently, food security can only ● Support smart agricultural technologies. be achieved through increased production. Better access to smart technology for small The improved millet variety, HKP, is a drought-­ landowners is necessary to enhance environ- resistant variety adapted to the Sahelian mental performance of farmers and pastoral- context, and which performs better due to its ists. Building capacity in smart agriculture lower sensitivity to worms and the photope- technologies is a win for both land and farmers. riod. With a potential yield of 1.5 to 2.5 tons It will not only help scale the development and per ha, the HKP is three times more productive implementation of sustainable land practices than current varieties. Similarly, the cowpea but will also enhance human capital as a natu- variety IT90K-­ 372-­ 2 has a short cycle, multi- 1-­ ral asset. Successfully implemented initiatives ple resistance, and is adapted to Niger’s agro-­ such as FMNR, a lost-­ cost land regeneration ecological zone. With a potential yield of 1.2 to technique, involving leaving trees on land 1.5 tons per ha, the performance of improved to protect crops, helped regreen large parts cowpea variety is five times higher than other of the Maradi and Zinder region and could varieties. Difficulties related to the technical easily be replicated in Tillaberi and Dosso. A management of the Nigerien seed system and presidential decree regulating and promoting to a lack of access to improved seeds for local FMNR was adopted in July 2020, which should producers have delayed their wider introduc- be able to boost its dissemination. Vegetable tion in the country. Future actions to counter gardens have proved successful, especially food security must prioritize improvements to among the women and youth, but careful train- make adapted and climate-­ resistant crop vari- ing on their maintenance and sustainability is eties more widely available to local farmers. still needed. ● Develop and implement a food storage ● Scale up water harvesting techniques to fight system across regions. Lack of adequate stor- degradation of croplands. Applying water age facilities of agricultural and food products harvesting techniques can improve water causes significant economic losses and strong 5 R ECOMMENDATIONS 51 price fluctuations. Therefore, the development ● Expand value chains by promoting Niger’s and implementation of a food storage system industrial capacity to transform agricultural across regions is key to counter food insecurity products into food products. Growing the in Niger. agricultural value chain will help reduce Niger’s dependency on single crops and counter ● Link smallholder farmers to local markets to the growing food trade imbalance. The value bring incentives for sustainable land manage- chains of dry cereals, including millet and ment and move beyond subsistence farming. sorghum, are the basis of food in Niger. High Reducing land degradation and rural poverty dependence on millet, which alone covers requires more than initiatives to regreen 65 percent of the total cultivated area, makes degraded areas. Connecting local farmers to Niger vulnerable to climate variability. To markets and to consumers can bring about increase resilience and reduce dependence, the needed economic incentives to engage Niger needs to diversify agricultural crops smallholder farmers to adopt sustainable land and strengthen the capacity of local industrial management practices. This requires better producers to maintain more of the value added access to financing, improvements in commu- involved in food production. For example, nity support services such as local food stor- local processing and sales of animal products age and extension services, and creation of an such as milk can save scarce revenue streams, enabling environment for small businesses and which could be used for importing other goods markets to flourish. and services. ● Encourage rural youth employment through ● Invest in the promotion and development of vocational training and as a means to modern- the Arabic gum industry including the expan- ize agriculture. The German Federal Ministry sion and rehabilitation of existing stands. for Economic Cooperation and Development In view of the worldwide demand of Arabic has put in place a successful regional project gum estimated at 50,000 tons per year, Niger on rural youth employment focused on Sub-­ is well positioned to increase its supply and Saharan countries.40 Niger should explore thus its share of the international market. It integrated. The project ways in which it can be ­ is opportune to build on the results of previ- supports the following three areas with an inte- ous projects—the Program of Research and grated approach to employment promotion: Development on Acacia Gum, along with the • Labor supply: Young people improve their pilot project Operation Acacia (Ministère de employment prospects by obtaining access l’Environnement de la Salubrité Urbaine et du oriented agricultural to modern, market-­ Developpement Durable 2012)—and roll out qualifications. the implementation of the strategy from 2003. Perhaps a critical aspect is to reinforce local • Labor demand: Micro, small and medium-­ capacities and create the structures that will ups continue to size enterprises and start-­ allow efficient coordination and management develop their businesses and business of the production and trade of Arabic gum. models, thus creating employment pros- Furthermore, in addition to the added value of pects for themselves and others. the sector for the national economy, the posi- • Matching: A supportive business environ- tive impact at the local level is not to be under- ment and needs-­ based placement services estimated. The organization of the community bring potential employers and employees into informal groups and formal cooperatives together. will be critical for the development of its production and trade potential with a spillover onto other value chains. There is also potential 40 https://www.giz.de/en/worldwide/67975.html. for the sector to mobilize women and youth, 52 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS especially in rural communities, in natural rural areas. Moreover, in line with the GoN resource management, and households’ food commitments to reduce reliance on fuelwoods, security. Access to finance is essential for intensifying awareness raising and promoting funding of the core programs aiming to opera- alternative fuels would help reduce pressures tionalize the strategy, be it for the rehabilita- on natural resources. tion of the Acacia gum landscapes and their ● Raise awareness among communities and expansion based on landscape and suitability local institutions on climate change risk, which mapping or in programs investing in infra- can systematically build community owner- structure needed for starting and maintaining ship and leverage local knowledge for more production, market access, access to finance, effective climate-­smart solutions tailored to and trade. It is therefore recommended that the specific local contexts. There is a lack of public funds be earmarked and mobilized for institutionalized mechanisms at the local level the development of the sector in recognition of for citizen engagement and social accountabil- its potential, with subsequent support from the ity for local communities to participate mean- international development community. making related to natural ingfully in decision-­ ● Upgrade the wood energy subsector. The use resource management or climate adaptation of wood energy can encourage landowners and disaster risk management. and farmers to better manage woodlands and ● Strengthen local engagement. Participatory invest in plantations. Wood energy produc- approaches to natural resources manage- tion is suitable for community management of ment that is socially inclusive can contribute to forests and woodlands and is in line with the conflict reduction, notably between pastoralists current trend of deregulation and privatization and farmers. Box 5.2 illustrates a successful of the energy and forestry sectors. In addi- example from Burkina Faso. tion, the sustainable production of domestic fuels can lead to rural development consistent with coherent town and country planning. The use of woody fuels promotes transport over 5.2. Supporting policy reform relatively short distances with low environmen- tal risks. Unlike other energy sources requir- ● Enhance local governance structures in ing more sophisticated technologies, woody planning and managing natural resources. fuels create jobs and income at the local level, The GoN has recognized the importance especially for the poorest and most disadvan- of local communities in the management of taged groups. Implementing the modernization their natural resources base. Indeed, decen- of the wood energy value chain will require tralization efforts have empowered local numerous institutional measures, including (a) communities and allowed for the rise of local improving the sustainable production of wood structures (formal and informal groups) to use energy by promoting participatory manage- and manage, among others, forests for timber ment of natural forests and increasing the and NTFP. That said, these efforts ought to be area under plantations and agroforestry; (b) more regulated to allow the formalization and/ improving exploitation and processing of wood structures or revitalization of inclusive local ­ energy by building the capacity of local actors, engaged in the sustainable use of natural increasing efficiency of resource use, and resources. Additionally, and in line with a testing and disseminating innovative methods broader landscape consideration, the manage- ­ to use agricultural residues; (c) improving the ment of these resources should only be done transportation and marketing of wood; (d) and based on communal/local development plans testing models of improved household cook- integrating social, economic, and environmen- stoves and disseminating them in urban and tal dimensions. 5 R ECOMMENDATIONS 53 BOX 5.2.  TerriStories—An innovative participatory planning tool Recent experience from Burkina Faso has demonstrated the potential for improving land use planning at the community level through an integrated landscape management approach developed in a participatory manner. The TerriStories approach incentivized local actors to find solutions to challenges related to natural resources through role play. Local actors included different users of land as well as customary and administrative authorities at municipal and village levels. Under the municipalities’ leadership, priority sites for conservation activities in forests and pastoral areas, and accompanying invest- ments around these sites, were identified by the participants through consensus and developed into Integrated Community Development Plans (ICDPs). The plans outlined a comprehensive vision of activities to reduce deforestation and woodland degradation. At project closing, all 32 municipal ICDPs had been developed and financed following consultation with more than 6,600 participants in 128 villages. By directly funding the plans through the local municipalities, the project demonstrated the potential for decentralized natural resources management. The involvement of communities led to greater local ownership and sustainability of investments, reduced conflicts over the access to natural resources, strengthened social ties among community members and local authorities, and improved accountability for lasting results. ● Institute land use planning as it is an impor- The policy and its associated action plan term sustainable tant policy tool for long-­ constitute the sole framework for all activi- development. The tool is deemed necessary to ties to combat malnutrition while considering continue the decentralization process, mitigate climate resilient actions. conflicting interests and competition over land ● Improve country’s capacity to sustainably and resources, regulate migration, and plan the use its stock of natural capital to achieve the use of lands per sector. Integrated land use objectives of the Niger 2035 Sustainable planning is highly encouraged as it is carried Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy out across sectors and levels of government (SDIGS). The importance of its natural assets and involves the allocation of land for different is recognized in the Renaissance Program 2 uses across a landscape in a way that balances (2016–2021), which identifies the restoration economic interests, social value, and forest and and sustainable management of land as neces- land cover. It also helps secure land restoration sary to ensure food and nutrition security. investments. Lessons derived from the implementation of ● Support the implementation of the National the ESDS 2012–2015 point to a need to imple- Nutritional Security Policy (PNSN) with explicit ment initiatives comprehensively and strategi- attention to climate change vulnerability.. This cally across sectors. The ESDS 2017–2021, national policy aims to eliminate all forms of year plan designed with SDIGS Niger’s first five-­ malnutrition by mobilizing institutional, human, in mind, highlights the precarious state of the and financial resources across multiple sectors. country’s natural capital. 54 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS ● Develop regulations, including monitoring corridors, water points, grazing areas), and and enforcement provisions in preparation formalizing land rights (particularly for vulner- for increased demand on forest resources to able populations such as displaced people, ensure the exploitation is supply driven rather pastoralists, and women). Local conflict than market driven. The absence of updated management structures and committees need regulation could lead to a depletion of existing to be strengthened through adequate funding resources, noting that the overarching legal and decision-­ making power, inclusive participa- framework is well advanced in this regard. tion of stakeholders (this includes traditional chiefs, religious leaders, administrative authori- ● Promote integrated landscape management ties, farmers, pastoralists, women, youth, and and landscape resilience in restoration strate- displaced populations), and training for tradi- gies. Tree, shrub, and forest cover provide tional leaders and others in conflict resolu- landscape resilience and agroforestry-­ related tion and management strategies. In addition, production benefits in the Western Sahel in service delivery to mobile pastoralist popula- general. Large-­ water interaction-­ scale, forest-­ tions needs to be improved, and adaptation based processes must be incorporated into and flexibility to this population’s needs are landscape restoration strategies, including required, while being inclusive of the sedentary the Great Green Wall initiative. Indeed, resil- communities that are present where mobile ient ecosystem restoration is best understood services are provided. on the basis of the forest-­ water and land-­ atmosphere interaction lens. Agroforestry parklands are reported to cover over 7 million ha of lands in Niger and are mostly found in 5.3. Building knowledge the agricultural zone that stretches across the southern part of the country, commonly along ● Develop natural accounts for agricultural the Niger River and in territories with a marked land, water, and forests to address the five human. Agroforestry can further promote land- strategic axes noted in ESDS 2017–2021. scape resilience. Strategies broadly focused on The process of creating and analyzing natural agroforestry expansion/restoration, increase capital accounts is key to Niger’s sustainable of rainfall recycling, water availability, and the development. The exercise should facilitate promotion of landscape resilience are more and enhance cross-­ sectoral links, improve data likely to steer future efforts in useful direc- collection and analysis, support institutional tions. In line with the above, it is recommended capacity building, and foster more effective that ecosystem management plans be put in economic planning. place covering mosaic landscapes, and where ● Assess and monitor forest resources to drive available, that they be revisited to integrate sector growth. Since the early 1990s, Niger has community preferences using participatory developed impressive experience managing approaches in both their management and forests. However, the limited knowledge on the restoration. Special attention ought to be given potential of the forestry sector is a major limit- to urban and peri-­ urban forest landscapes ing factor to the expansion of the sector. Niger to ensure their conservation and sustainable has never undertaken a national-­ scale forest management. inventory impeding the elaboration of resource ● Implement the new Land Policy and sustain- use plans and a valuation of forest services. able land management action plans to help Despite the development of the National prevent conflicts linked to land and natural Strategy for the promotion of NTFP, lack of data resource management. These may include and statistics prevails, thus keeping the exploi- delivering land transaction acts, establish- tation of NTFP a traditional and informal activ- ing rules for shared resources (transhumance ity. It also shines a light on the role of forest 5 R ECOMMENDATIONS 55 degradation and depletion of their resources, ● Improve access to and strengthen techni- which can undermine the sustainability of cal national entities for climate data collec- potential economic growth. In this regard, it tion and archiving. Overall, scientific data are is recommended that a set of indicators be mainly produced during one-­ off collections for established allowing medium-­and long-­ term projects or programs, information is gathered monitoring of these resources and alignment by development partners, and it is dispersed with national and international reporting obliga- at the national level. Implementing a dedi- tions. A comprehensive assessment of forest cated mechanism for funding data collection, resources, including the quantification of some supporting modelling capacities at the national assets, particularly biomass for energy produc- level would help build national capacities, tion and NTFP, can help ensure they receive an promote better access to climate information, appropriate level of economic policy consid- and could complement ongoing initiatives. eration given their importance to sustainable For example, an improved water manage- economic prosperity. The monetary valuation ment and meteorological data and information of their contribution to national economy would dissemination into rural areas will improve the drive policy changes and steer investments in population’s response to droughts, and the the sector. Furthermore, an assessment of the development of an early warning system is potential for a public-­private arrangement for needed to increase the resilience in the agri- sustainability, including operations, particularly cultural sector.41 for the payment of environmental services or carbon finance, is essential to mobilize resources, attract the private sector, formalize resource use, and regulate it. 41 World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/niger/vulnerability 56 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group 5 R ECOMMENDATIONS 57 58 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Photo: Andrea Borgarello / World Bank Group Annex 1.  Main actors involved in environmental management in Niger43 Institution Remit Climate Commission of the Sahel Sahel • Contribute to the implementation of the Investment Plan Climate-­ Region—Commission Climat pour la RS) and its Regional Priority Programme (PRP). Region (ICP-­ Région du Sahel (CCRS) • Support member countries in the operationalization of National Working Groups (NWGs). • Mobilize non-­state actors (civil society, NGOs, private sector, local authorities, and so on). • Prepare the Terms of Reference of the feasibility study relating to the implementation of the CCRS financial mechanism. Water, Environment, and Sanitation • Support implementation of the ‘3N’ Initiative. Unit—Cellule Eau, Environnement et • Evaluate and develop propose actions in terms of sustainable development Assainissement (CEEA) and sanitation. • Instill a dynamic of compliance for urban master plans and related plans. • Monitor and evaluate the implementation of PANGIRE, PNEDD, other programs and environmental projects, and of the projects under the National Action Plan for Combatting Desertification and Management of Natural Resources (NAP/LCD-­GRN). High Commission for the 3N • Coordinate, plan, and conduct technical, economic, and financial studies. Initiative—Haut-­Commissariat à • Mobilize financing. l’Initiative 3N (HC3N) • Promote as well as monitor and evaluate the implementation of the 3N Initiative. Kandadji Dam Agency—Agence du The ABK is tasked, among others, with the following: Barrage de Kandadji (ABK) • Mobilize finance. • Manage and operate the Kandadji Dam. • Supervise and coordinate the implementation of the Social and Economic Management Plan (PGES). • Recover fee. 43 Extracted from the GoN report on the State of the Environment, 2021. ANNEX: ANNEX 1. MAIN ACTORS INVOLVED IN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT IN NIGER 59 Institution Remit Executive Secretariat of the • Coordinate activities related to the implementation of the recommendations National Council for Environment of United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. and Sustainable Development— • Define a national framework containing: the policy, directions, objectives, Secrétariat Exécutif du Conseil strategies, and programs on Environment for Sustainable Development. National de l’Environnement pour un Développement Durable • Design and promote the implementation of a framework and adequate (SE/CNEDD) institutional mechanisms, ensuring coordination and harmonization of the activities of all stakeholders in the related National Plan. • Ensure compliance with national and international environmental standards in all development economic, social, and cultural activities. • Mobilize financing for the development and the implementation of the National Plan. • Promote sustainable management and use of natural resources and environment within the framework of the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development. National Centre of Ecological and • Ensure the establishment and management of relevant observatories for Environmental Monitoring—Centre ecological and environmental monitoring. National de Surveillance Écologique • Ensure the collection and processing of relevant biophysical, biological, and et Environnementale (CNSEE) socioeconomic data. • Generate and publish through the network of observatories and in partnership with national and international institutions, information relating to the natural or anthropogenic impacts on environment and natural resources, such as desertification and climate change and variability. • Set environmental indicators of the quality of the living environment of populations. • Address environmental biosafety emergencies and disasters. and long term management measures on natural • Ensure in the medium-­ resources. • Ensure database management. • Disseminate information through periodic reports, documents, and journals. National Agency of the Great Green • Coordinate, monitor, evaluate, and implement the Great Green Wall initiative Wall—Agence Nationale de la in Niger. Grande Muraille Verte du Niger National Office of Environmental • Promote and implement environmental assessments in Niger at the national Evaluation—Bureau National level. d’Évaluation Environnementale • Cover all policies, strategies, plans, programs, projects, and all activities, (BNEE) for which an environmental assessment is mandatory or necessary pursuant to Law No. 2018-­ 28 of May 14, 2018 and its Decree No. 2019-­ 027/PRN/ MESU/DD of January 11, 2019, determining the fundamental principles of Environmental Assessment in Niger. 60 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Institution Remit General Directorate of Pastoral • Oversee four national technical directorates Development, Production and – Directorate for the Promotion of Livestock Sectors and Quality (DPFA/Q) Livestock Industries—Direction Générale du Développement – Directorate of Pastoral Development (DDP) Pastoral, de la Production et des – Directorate of Livestock Industries (DIA) industries animals (DGDP/P/IA) – Directorate of Genetic Improvement and Livestock Biotechnology (DAGBA) • Promote livestock sectors • Promote livestock industries • Support genetic improvement • Develop and secure pasturelands and pastoralism • Monitor pastoral resources • Risk management General Directorate of Agriculture— The DGA comprises four national technical directorates Direction Générale de l’Agriculture • Directorate of Extension and Technology Transfer (DV/TT) (DGA) • Directorate for the Promotion of Crop Sectors and Quality (DPFV/Q) • Directorate of Agricultural Mechanization (DMA) • Directorate of Seed Control and Certification (DCCS). Design, develop, and implement national agriculture strategies, value chain strategies, agricultural extension, technology transfer, laws and regulations on production, packaging, quality control, and certification of seeds and fruit crops and ensure their application, and finally monitor agricultural seasons. General Directorate of Crop • Design and implement the national policy for crop protection. Protection—Direction Générale de la It carries out its mission through four technical departments: Protection des Végétaux (DGPV) • Directorate of Phytosanitary Interventions and Training (DIPF) • Directorate of Biological Studies (DEB) • Directorate of Phytosanitary Regulation and Environmental Monitoring (DRP/SE) • Directorate of Phytosanitary Logistics and Equipment (DLEP). National Centre of Locust • Prevent desert locust infestations of the Gregarinous areas of the national Control—Centre National de Lutte territory. antiacridienne (CNLA) • Monitor and observe the presence of desert locust. • Coordinate desert locust control and eradication efforts. • Monitor health and environmental conditions in its area of intervention. Environmental and health monitoring is carried out by the Directorate of Environmental Monitoring (DES) of the CNLA in collaboration with the DGPV, the services of Health, Livestock and Environment. The CNLA is structured as follows: • A Technical Operations Department • An Environmental and Health Monitoring Directorate • A Monitoring and Evaluation Directorate • A Directorate of Administrative and Financial Affairs. ANNEX: ANNEX 1. MAIN ACTORS INVOLVED IN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT IN NIGER 61 Institution Remit National Institute of Agronomic • Contribute to the development and implementation of research policy for Research of the Niger—Institut rural development. National de Recherches • Develop and implement research agronomic programs. Agronomiques du Niger (INRAN) • Provide scientific and technical support for rural development. • Contribute to training and informing technical, research, and development actors. • Develop appropriate technologies for increasing and improving the productivity of the rural sector. • Contribute to the dissemination of experimental results of research with interested services and organizations. • Provide services in the areas of its competence. Public Universities in Niger The Public Universities of Niger are under the ministry of Higher Education, Research, and Innovation (MESRI). Their mission is teaching, scientific research, and technological innovation. They contribute to the sustainable development at both national and regional levels. The Abdou Moumouni University of Niamey (UAM) includes the Faculties of Science and Technology, Agronomy, Legal, and Economic Sciences and Humanities, Health Sciences, the Ecole Normale Supérieure and the Institutes of specialized research (CRESA, IRSH, IRI, IREM). The UAM has, among others, the following missions: • Train technical managers, teaching managers, and so on. • Train researchers. • Train and retain managers for different types of scientific and technical activities. Network for the Management In charge of the following: of Natural Resources and • Promotion of sustainable, fair, and efficient management of natural Decentralization—Réseau Gestion resources including policies and practices des Ressources Naturelles (GRN) et Décentralisation • Transfer of local skills and resources through learning groups (pastoralism, local conventions, and so on) and research on access to rural resources and land • Inclusive participation through the exchange and dissemination of experiments and the implementation of a communication strategy. Directorate of National • Coordinate and harmonize national meteorology policy. Meteorology—Direction de la • Ensure atmospheric observation. Météorologie Nationale (DMN) • Provide weather forecasts and disseminate the corresponding information. • Provide meteorological assistance to all socioeconomic sectors in Niger. • Implement data collection through the establishment of a network of data monitoring stations, processing, forecasting, archiving and dissemination of data. • Promote meteorological research and applications, in particular in the fields of global climate change and environmental protection. • Monitor regional and international institutions dealing with meteorological issues. hydrometeorological bulletins (annual • Disseminate weather reports, agro-­ year reports). and 10-­ 62 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Institution Remit National Institute of Statistics of • Collect, integrate, produce, disseminate statistics necessary for the the Ministry of Finance—Institut development of the economic and social policy and the assessment of their National de la Statistique (INS) du results. Ministère des Finances • Coordinate the national statistical system and sectoral, macroeconomic, demographic studies and research. and socio-­ term economic and financial policy, in • Coordinate work guiding short-­ relation to other government departments. term economic and financial programs, in • Prepare and monitor short-­ coordination with other departments of the Ministry of Finance, ministries, and subregional organizations. • Prepare guidance notes on the national budget as well as economic and financial reports of the finance law. Research Institution for • Develop scientific projects centered on the relationship between humans Development—Institution de and their environment in the Sahel that address Recherche pour le Développement – Water resources (IRD) – Weather – Conservation of endangered species in the Aïr Ténéré reserve – Erosion of cultivated soils – Genetics of millet – Management of natural resources. Regional Center Agrhymet—Centre The CRA is a specialized institution of the Permanent Interstate Committee for Régional Agrhymet (CRA) Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) created in 1974. It has its headquarters in Niamey (Niger). It brings together the 13 member countries of CILSS: Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-­Bissau, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, and Chad. The center’s main objectives are to • Contribute to food security and increased food production in CILSS member countries; • Help improve the management of natural resources of the Sahel region; and • Provide information to and train development actors and their partners in climatology, hydrology, crop protection, food security the fields of agro-­ and nutrition, integrated management of water resources, sustainable land management, and so on. African Center for Meteorological • Develop and transfer tools and technologies to national meteorological Applications for Development— systems. Centre Africain pour les • Develop weather and climate information and products to support Applications de la Météorologie au sustainable development. Développement (ACMAD) • Disseminate meteorological and climatic information to users, particularly in rural areas. • Communicate the impact of the activities of member states and partners. • Monitor climate, forecast weather and climate change, train African meteorologists in new techniques and technologies. International Crops Research ICRISAT is a nonprofit, apolitical organization belonging to the Future Harvest Institute for the Semi-­Arid Tropics— Alliance pertaining to centers supported by the Consultative Group on Institut international de recherche International Agricultural Research (CGIAR). sur les cultures des zones tropicales poor farmers in the semi-­ ICRISAT’s mission is to help 644 million resource-­ arid semiarides (ICRISAT) tropics overcome hunger, poverty, and environmental degradation through improved agricultural practices. ANNEX: ANNEX 1. MAIN ACTORS INVOLVED IN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT IN NIGER 63 Institution Remit Niger River Basin Authority—Autorité • Harmonize and coordinate national policies for the development of basin du Bassin du Fleuve Niger (ABN) resources. • Plan basin development by developing an integrated basin development plan. • Design, build, operate, and maintain works and common projects. • Ensure the control and regulation of all forms of navigation on the river, its tributaries in accordance with the ‘Niamey Act’. tributaries, and sub-­ • Participate in the formulation of requests for assistance and the mobilization of funding for studies and necessary works for the development of basin resources. Intergovernmental Committees CILSS is an international organization bringing together the Sahelian countries. for Drought Control in the Sahel— It was created in 1973, during the first major drought in the region, to mobilize états de Lutte contre Comités Inter-­ the Sahelian populations and the international community around emergency la Sécheresse au Sahel (CILSS) aid and the implementation of programs related to rainfed and irrigated agriculture, hydraulics, environment, transport, and communication. The executive secretariat is based in Ouagadougou (Burkina Faso). The agro-­hydrometric center (AGRHYMET), created by the World Meteorological Organization, is housed in Niamey (Niger) and the Institut du Sahel, a center socioeconomic and ‘population and development’ research, is based for agro-­ in Bamako (Mali). Civil Society Platform for • Establish a synergy framework on the one hand between civil society Climate Change and Sustainable organizations working in the areas of climate change, environment, and Development—Plateforme De La energy for sustainable development and on the other hand between the Société Civile Sur Le Changement Government and the said civil society. Climatique Et Le Développement • Ensure that the change dimension is considered in climate policies, Durable strategies, and programs for sustainable development. • Ensure justice and equity in the UNFCCC negotiation process and adequately protect the climate while safeguarding development. General Directorate of Water • Monitor and protect water resources. Resources—Direction Générale des Ressources en Eau (DGRE) General Directorate for Water and • Implement policies, strategies, conventions and international agreements Forests—Direction Générale de and action plans in the areas of forestry, fishing, aquaculture, beekeeping, l’Environnement et des Forêts (DGEF) wetlands, landscaping, and environmental preservation. General Directorate for Sustainable • Implement national policies, strategies, and action plans for environmental Development and Environmental preservation, environmental economics, sustainable development, Standards—Direction Générale du environmental standards, pollution and nuisance, and disaster risks as well Développement Durable et des as that of multilateral environmental conventions and agreements. Normes Environnementales (DGDD/NE) Lake Chad Basin Commission— • Promote the common and sustainable management and exploitation Commission du Bassin Lac Chad border security in a context where the of Lake Chad, as well as cross-­ (CBLT) fluctuating design of the shores of the lake generates internal and cross-­ border migrations as well as banditry. 64 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS Institution Remit Liptako-­Gourma Authority—Autorité The role of the Integrated Development Authority of the Liptako-­ Gourma de Développement Intégré des États region (ALG) is to strengthen ties of cooperation and solidarity binding the du Liptako-­Gourma (ALG) three states, through the integrated and harmonious development of the Liptako-­Gourma region. The Liptako-­ geographical areas of Gourma Authority covers the historical-­ Liptako (northeastern Burkina Faso) and Gourma, but also, more generally, the entire convergence zone of the three borders of the member countries, with the Niger River Basin as the central axis. A1.1. Other institutions involved in environmental management ● National Council for Environment and Sustainable Development (CNEDD) ● National Water and Sanitation Commission (CNEA) ● Energy and Sustainable Development Technical Commission (CTEDD) ● Technical Commission on Biological Diversity (CTDB) ● Technical Commission on Climate Change and Variability (CTCVC) ● Technical Commission for the fight against desertification and the management of natural resources (CTLCD/GRN) ● National RAMSAR Committee ● MAB/UNESCO National Committee ● National Rural Code Committee (CN/CR) ● National Coordination Committee of NGOs on Desertification (CNCOD) ● National Multisectoral Energy Committee (CNME) A1.2. Environmental Management Frameworks and Platforms ● National Consultation Framework on Domestic Energies (CNCED) ● Framework for Consultation of Actors involved in Adaptation to Climate Change (CCAACC) ● Consultation Framework on Migration (CCM) ● Framework for Consultation of Actors in the implementation of the 3N Initiative (CCA/3NI) ● National Civil Society Platform on Climate Change and Sustainable Development (PN/CC/DD) ● National Platform for Dialogue on Climate Change, Agriculture, Research and Food Security in Niger (PNSP/CCASAN) ANNEX: ANNEX 1. MAIN ACTORS INVOLVED IN ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT IN NIGER 65 Annex 2.  Cost of agricultural productivity loss due to land degradation A2.1. Land Degradation analysis LDA LPL = × LDPL TAA LPL = Land productivity loss expressed in % LDA = Land degradation area (ha) TAA = Total arable area (ha) LDPL = Land degradation productivity loss (%) A2.2. Agricultural Productivity Loss CPLi = LPL × CAi × CPi CPLi = Crop productivity loss per crop expressed in tons LPL = Land productivity loss estimated in 1.1 CAi = Crop area (ha) CPi = Crop productivity (t/ha) This methodology is based on Panagos et al. (2018). This method assumes that the productivity loss is equally distributed across all crop types in each region. In equation 2.1, we are using 16.5 percent based on the estimates of productivity loss due to erosion from Lal (1995) for Sub-­Saharan Africa for 2020. The estimates of productivity loss vary between 2 and 40 percent depending on the erosion severity. In equation 2.2, once the agricultural productivity loss due to land degradation is calculated, to obtain the economic values, the CPL is multiplied by the market price of each crop. Due to the lack of data, and considering the main land degradation drivers in Niger, land degradation is assumed to be produced by wind and water erosion. ­ 66 NIGER COUNTRY ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS TABLE A.2.1.  Results of the analysis by region and crop Region Millet Sorghum Maize Niébé Rice Nuts Fonio Sesame Total Agadez 3,682 9,935 41,002 3,817 58,435 Diffa 2,558,891 691,240 3,289,274 75,235 225,938 1,497,541 8,338,118 Dosso 29,513,580 8,596,433 104,494 49,917,960 1,948,693 2,129,168 116,477 67,582 92,394,387 Maradi 20,769,500 15,272,321 28,943 27,585,157 5,712,692 822,926 70,191,539 Niamey 494,663 30,480 729 1,397,650 2,436,631 8,702 4,368,854 Tahoua 45,549,568 25,201,595 77,764 53,383,345 185,921 2,936,854 343,848 127,678,895 Tillaberi 83,429,431 30,455,984 58,433 126,777,673 42,574,077 2,886,389 2,714 1,072,296 287,256,995 Zinder 15,535,075 11,708,079 7,694 22,385,346 143,836 4,707,742 1,527,513 56,015,284 Total 197,854,390 91,966,066 319,058 284,740,221 47,364,393 18,607,485 119,191 5,331,705 646,302,507 ANNEX: ANNEX 2. COST OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY LOSS DUE TO LAND DEGRADATION 67 References Adamou, R., B. 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