COVID-19 Learning Losses Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Published in 2021 by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), 7, place de Fontenoy, 75007 Paris, France; United Nations Children’s Fund Regional Office in the Middle East and North Africa, 15-Abel Qader Al-Abed Street, Amman, Jordan; and the World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. © UNESCO, UNICEF and the World Bank 2021 ISBN 978-92-3-100494-0 This publication is available in Open Access under the Attribution ShareAlike 3.0 IGO (CC-BY-SA 3.0 IGO) licence (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/igo/). By using the content of this publication, the users accept to be bound by the terms of use of the UNESCO Open Access Repository (http://www.unesco.org/open-access/terms-use-ccbysa-en). The present license applies exclusively to the text content of the publication. 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Available under CC BY Box icon by Rockicon Search icon by IcoMoon Hand in hand icon by Flowicon, in the Love – Glyph Collection Access lesson icon by LUTFI GANI AL ACHMAD, in the ELearning System Glyph Collection Inbound icon by Fran Couto, in the Community Manager Collection Setting protection icon by Vectorstall, in the Engineering-A (Line & Glyphs) Collection Inclusion icon by Lars Meiertoberens, in the Human & Environment Collection School icon by Handicon, in the Education Vol 2 – Outline Collection Children icon by Larea Distance education icon by Shakeel Ch., in the Modern Education Collection Radio icon by Zero Team0 Innovation icon by Shakeel Ch., in the Modern Education Collection Ebook icon by usamah abdul matin, in the E-Learning Collection Ebook icon by ProSymbols, in the Business Project Planning Line Icons Collection Family icon by ProSymbols, in the Pictogram Vector Collection Designed by UNESCO Beirut COVID-19 Learning Losses Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Acknowledgements Acknowledgements This report was jointly prepared by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO), the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the World Bank (WB). The report was prepared under the overall guidance of Hana Yoshimoto (UNESCO, Chief of Education Section), Jeannette Vogelaar and Brenda Haiplik (UNICEF Regional Advisors) and Andreas Blom (WB, Practice Manager). The team who prepared the report was co-led by a multi-disciplinary team with the following representatives: Ò UNESCO: Hana Yoshimoto, Minghui Ligao Ò UNICEF: Leonardo Menchini, Alassane Ouedraogo, Takako Shimizu, Elizabeth Dalling Ò World Bank: Harriet Nannyonjo, João Pedro Azevedo, Maryam Akmal, Yi Ning Wong The report was peer reviewed by UNESCO (Paula Razquin, Gwang-Chol Chang, Satoko Yano), UNICEF (Juan Bester, Thomas Wells Dreesen), and the WB (Koen Martijn Geven, Marie-Helene Cloutier, Halsey Rogers). The report also benefited from substantial inputs from UNESCO (Sonia Guerriero, Akemi Yonemura, Bertrand Tchatchoua, Silvia Montaya, Dakmara Georgescu), UNICEF (Suguru Mizunoya, Haogen Yao, Margaret Kelly, Sakshi Mishra, Karen Avanesyan, Mirko Forni, Gemma Wilson-Clark, Friedrich Affolter, Robert Bain), and the WB (Laura Gregory, Amira Kazem, Bridget Crampton, Kaliope Azzi-Huck). 1 © UNICEF/Choufany 2 Table of Contents Acknowledgements 1 List of Figures 4 List of Tables 4 List of Boxes 5 Acronyms and Abbreviations 6 Executive Summary 7 Chapter 1. Introduction 13 1.1 The problem: learning disrupted by COVID-19 14 1.2 The context: schooling, learning and earning before COVID-19 14 1.3 The goal: enabling learning for all 15 Chapter 2. The problem: learning disruption 17 2.1 MENA school closures: overview 18 2.2 MENA school closures in detail 19 2.3 Reopening 20 Chapter 3. Responses to date: strategies to enable learning during the COVID-19 pandemic 21 3.1 Access to learning 22 i. Supply: provision of remote and hybrid learning 22 ii. Reach: participation in remote and hybrid learning 23 3.2 Engaged learners 28 i. Parents and caregivers: enabling home-based learning 28 ii. Catching up with remedial and accelerated learning 29 3.3 Enabling environment 31 i. Teacher development: skills for a new reality 31 3.4 Effectiveness: government perceptions 32 Chapter 4. The potential impact of COVID-19 on schooling and learning 35 4.1 Background 36 4.2 Methodology 36 4.3 Simulation results 38 i. Result 1: learning poverty 38 ii. Result 2: learning adjusted years of schooling 43 iii. Result 3: minimum proficiency in PISA 44 iv. Result 4: lifetime earnings 45 Chapter 5. ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all 47 5.1 Lessons learned 48 i. Access to learning 48 ii. Engaged learners 50 iii. Enabling environment 50 5.2 Recommendations 51 i. Pandemic period: continuity and engagement 51 ii. Early recovery period: reopening and remediating 60 iii. Post-pandemic period: accelerating and improving 67 Chapter 6. Conclusion: call to action 70 Annexes 72 Annex 1: Remote education delivery systems used in MENA: country details (10 March 2021) 74 Annex 2: Simulation model: data and assumptions 76 Annex 3: Assessment types and their key differences 87 3 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa List of Figures Figure 1 Building back better’: enabling learning for all 16 Figure 2 Duration of complete and partial school closures (in weeks) by region, March 2020 to January 2021 18 Figure 3 Duration of school closures (in weeks) on average in MENA, March 2020 to June 2021 19 Figure 4 Types of delivery system deployed by education level during school closures, 2020 22 Figure 5 Share and number of students (pre-primary to upper secondary) potentially reached and not reached by digital and broadcast remote learning policies by region 23 Figure 6 Share of students (pre-primary to upper secondary) potentially reached by different types of remote learning method by region 24 Figure 7 Internet penetration rate in MENA, 2019 to present 25 Figure 8 Digital connectivity per education level in MENA 25 Figure 9 Mitigation measures targeting parents and caregivers for continued learning at home (MENA regional overview) 28 Figure 10 Different approaches to limiting learning loss in MENA, July-October 2020 29 Figure 11 Mitigation measures targeting teachers for continued learning in MENA, July-October 2020 32 Figure 12 Number of countries by perceived effectiveness of remote learning in MENA, July-October 2020 33 Figure 13 Perceived effectiveness of remote learning, by modality and typology in MENA July-October 2020 33 Figure 14 Learning poverty: pre-COVID baseline and three simulation scenarios 38 Figure 15 Relationship between changes in learning poverty and learning poverty gap 40 Figure 16 Relationship between changes in learning poverty gap and learning poverty severity 40 Figure 17 Gender gaps in schooling and learning deprivation 42 Figure 18 Learning-adjusted years of schooling: pre-COVID baseline and three simulation scenarios 43 Figure 19 Aggregate economic cost of foregone lifetime earnings at present value (PV) (US$ trillions) 45 Figure 20 Learning data gaps in MENA 63 List of Tables Table 1 Parameters for MENA learning loss simulations 37 Table 2 Learning poverty gap: pre-COVID baseline and three simulation scenarios 39 Table 3 Learning poverty severity: pre-COVID baseline and three simulation scenarios 40 Table 4 Percentage below minimum proficiency in PISA: pre-COVID baseline and three simulation scenarios 44 Table 5 Implementation of diagnostic classroom assessment under four resource scenarios 69 4 List of Boxes List of Boxes Box 1 Higher education context in MENA 15 Box 2 Higher education responses 27 Box 3 Refugee children and youth at risk of dropping out 30 Box 4 Teachers preparedness training package in UAE 31 Box 5 Gender gaps in learning poverty 42 Box 6 Refugee children face challenges in accessing remote learning 49 Box 7 Guiding principles for remote learning 52 Box 8 One of the largest virtual schools implementation in the Arab world - Saudi Arabia’s Madrasati (‘My School’) platform 54 Box 9 Jordan’s learning bridges: a national blended learning recovery programme 55 Box 10 Bridging the digital divide with public-private partnerships 56 Box 11 Supporting young children and their families COVID-19 response 57 Box 12 The role of different forms of assessment 61 Box 13 Advancing SDG 4 by improving minimum proficiency in reading and maths 62 Box 14 Learning data compact in MENA 63 Box 15 Examples of approaches to remediation 66 Box 16 Five key principles for education technology (EdTech) investments 68 Box 17 Five pillars for ‘building back better’ education systems 69 5 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Acronyms and Abbreviations COVID-19 Coronavirus disease, first identified in 2019 CAC Conflict Affected Countries DHS Demographic and Health Surveys ECD Early Childhood Development ECE Early Childhood Education GDP Gross Domestic Product LAYS Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling ICT Information and Communications Technology IMF International Monetary Fund IIEP-UNESCO International Institute for Educationalal Planning of UNESCO MENA Middle East and North Africa MENARO UNICEF Middle East and North Africa Regional Office MICS Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys MoE Ministry of Education SDG Sustainable Development Goals PISA Programme for International Student Assessment UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNRWA United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees UIS UNESCO Institute for Statistics WASH Water, Sanitation and Hygiene WB World Bank WFP World Food Programme 6 Executive Summary Executive Summary The problem: learning disrupted by coronavirus disease (COVID-19) The broader economic impacts of the pandemic have been exacerbating the pre-existing macroeconomic and fiscal imbalances of MENA countries, placing public The COVID-19 pandemic and associated budgets under further pressure and causing a negative educational disruption represents impact on investment in education systems. The overall functioning of education systems has been affected, a catastrophe for the schooling, learning, including capacity to collect evidence to inform and earning potential of the more than decisions and policy-making. This means that while facing 110 million students from pre-primary to unprecedented difficulties, policymakers and educators have less information available to help understand these higher education in the Middle East challenges and develop evidence-based solutions. and North Africa (MENA) Since the beginning of the pandemic, efforts have 1 been made to monitor both school closures (and By the end of March 2020, all countries in the region re-opening) and the measures put in place to ensure had closed their schools’ physical premises as part of continuity of learning. These include the Survey of the measures put in place to contain the spread of the Ministries of Education on National Responses to COVID-19, pandemic. Some had also suspended or cancelled teaching jointly supported by UNESCO, UNICEF and the World at the higher education level2. Bank. However, to date, no systematic evidence has been available on how students’ learning is being affected by the An entire generation of students, children and adolescents disruptions caused by the pandemic or on the impact of has been affected by this unprecedented disruption, with education response measures initiated by governments. a potential far-reaching impact beyond the education sector to include consequences for their mental health, This report contributes to filling this evidence gap and well-being, socialisation and prospects for being active includes a series of simulations of potential learning losses participants in society, including in the labour market. due to COVID-19 and exploration of their longer-term implications. The analysis is based on the Enabling learning Before the pandemic, an estimated 15 million children in for all framework6, which outlines access, engagement the region between the ages of 5-14 were out of school and enabling environment as the three crucial enablers for and nearly two-thirds of children in the region were learning, while the simulation assumptions are informed unable to read with proficiency3. An additional 10 by the evidence on school closures and governments’ million children were at risk of dropping out of school, education-related responses, collected through the joint due to poverty, social marginalisation, displacement and survey. disruption caused by conflict4. In 2020, on top of the pre-pandemic estimates, UNESCO estimated that a further 1.31 million children and youths were at risk of dropping out of school due to the COVID-19 crisis, noting that these children were unlikely to return to their education institutions5. 1 20 MENA countries/territories (according to the UNICEF and the World Bank categorisation) include: Algeria, Djibouti, Tunisia, Morocco, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Palestinian territories, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Gulf area (Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE), Oman, Yemen, Iran. 2 UNESCO (2021). Survey on Covid-19: Reopening and Reimagining Universities. Six Arab States responded to the survey conducted between December 2020 and February 2021: Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Qatar, Palestine and the United Arab Emirates, four of them reported suspension or cancellation of teaching and research activities in tertiary education. 3 World Bank (2019). Ending Learning Poverty – What Will It Take? 4 UNICEF (2021). Out-of-school children. 5 UNESCO (2020). UNESCO COVID-19 education response: how many students are at risk of not returning to school? Advocacy paper. 6 Authors developed the framework based on desk and literature review. 7 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Engaged learners This report: Findings suggest that at least 43 per cent of MENA countries recognise the crucial role of parents and caregivers in enabling learners’ engagement, having provided materials 1 Summarises the information on school closures in to support them with home-based learning for primary MENA and the educational response to COVID-19 and secondary students10. Thirty-eight per cent of countries to date; reported providing regular follow-up phone calls from 2 Estimates the potential learning loss associated teachers to parents and 19 per cent provided guidance with the pandemic, based on simulations; and, materials for home-based pre-primary education. 3 Presents a series of recommendations for policy and programming to recover learning loss Enabling environment and ‘build back better’, with the aim that quality The pandemic also highlighted the need for continuous education becomes the experience of all MENA’s professional development, psychological support and learners. socio-emotional learning for teachers, to enable them to make the transition to effective online and/or hybrid teaching11. In response, according to the joint survey, Responses to date: 33 per cent of countries in the MENA12 region provided enabling learning for all teachers with instructions on online teaching and learning, as well as content designed or adapted for remote learning. The pandemic has affected the enabling of learning for all, including access to learning, engaged learners and an Officials reported that online platforms and televised enabling environment. learning were seen as the most effective modes of delivery, but official assessments have yet to be conducted about Access to learning remote learning measures and their impact on learning and Efforts to ensure access to learning have varied - from engagement13. country to country and by grade7 - and have included face- to-face learning for earlier grades, hybrid learning for What’s at stake: impact of COVID-19 on most grades and full remote learning8. Remote learning future schooling, learning and earning modalities have included digital learning platforms, television and radio broadcasts and distribution of paper- The analysis in this report focuses on four key outcomes of based materials. the simulation model: Ò learning poverty, Despite these efforts, regional-level evidence shows that approximately 40 per cent of students in MENA (37 million Ò learning-adjusted years of schooling (LAYS), children and adolescents) have not benefitted from any Ò percentage below minimum proficiency remote learning initiative, the majority of whom were on Programme for International Student already vulnerable and disadvantaged9. The main reasons Assessment (PISA)14, and for exclusion were the lack of availability of remote learning Ò lifetime earnings. The simulations suggest that initiatives (available only for specific grades, in some COVID-19-related school closures are likely to countries) and the lack of tools to access remote learning create a substantial setback to the global goal of (particularly digital devices and internet connections). halving the percentage of learning poor by 2030, as indicated by the following results: 7 UNESCO/UNICEF/World Bank (2020). What Have We Learnt? Overview of Findings from a Survey of Ministries of Education on National Responses to COVID-19. 8 Ibid. 9 UNICEF (2020). COVID-19 – Are Children able to continue Learning during School Closure? 10 UNESCO/UNICEF/World Bank (2020). What Have We Learnt? Overview of Findings from a Survey of Ministries of Education on National Responses to COVID-19. 11 International Task Force on Teachers for Education 2030 (2021). Futures of Teaching – Conversation between teachers and experts from the Arab States. 12 MENA: Upper Middle Income countries include: Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Libya, MENA: Lower Middle Income countries include: Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Palestinian territories (based on World Bank income groupings). 13 UNESCO/UNICEF/World Bank (2020). What Have We Learnt? Overview of Findings from a Survey of Ministries of Education on National Responses to COVID-19. 14 PISA is the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment. PISA measures 15-year-olds’ ability to use their reading, mathematics and science knowledge and skills to meet real-life challenges. 8 Executive Summary 1 The number of children unable to read and ‘Building back better’: reimagining and understand a simple age-appropriate text enabling quality learning for all (learning poor) in the MENA region could increase by 9.4 percentage points (from 59.9 per Lessons learned cent to 69.3 per cent), including increased inequality Based on the analysis of data and information on school among the learning poor15 across the region; closures, the responses put in place by governments to enable learning continuity, and the simulations of the 2 Children in the MENA region could lose one LAYS; potential impact of COVID-19 on learning and earning, 3 The proportion of 15-year-old students the report outlines the following takeaways and lessons performing below minimum proficiency in PISA learned on the three pillars of the “enabling learning for all” could increase from 60.1 per cent to 71.6 per cent; framework. and, In summary, the simulations suggest that unless countries 4 MENA economies could lose up to US$0.8 trillion in act quickly on several areas, COVID-19-related school lifetime earnings for the current cohort of learners closures could set back the learning and future prospects as a result of their lower levels of learning, their lost of MENA’s current school-aged learners in a number of months of school, or their potential for dropping significant ways. With data and evidence, policy makers out of school. have a range of tools at their disposal which can be deployed to help them prioritize and accelerate learning. Access to learning Ò Strengthening a range of learning modalities is urgently needed to ensure that all learners have access to both learning and services to support their wellbeing. Ò Pre-existing learning disparities are growing, suggesting a strong need for differentiated interventions and targeted policies, resources for those at a disadvantage, and innovative techniques including teaching based on the learning level of a child. Engaged learners Ò Teachers and parents need support to cope with the challenges created by the disruption of face-to-face learning and the shift towards digital and other modes of remote learning. Ò Many MENA countries could experience a learning catastrophe if urgent action is not taken to provide remedial, remote and social-emotional learning for all learners. Ò Learner, teacher and parent/caregiver perspectives on effectiveness are needed. Enabling environment Ò Comprehensive data are required to plan and monitor responses and develop mitigation and recovery strategies for learning. Ò Education systems need to become more equitable, adaptive and resilient to enable access to learning at all times for all of MENA’s learners. Ò The learning and earning trajectories of a generation are at stake, including learning- adjusted years of schooling, learning proficiency and lifetime earnings. 15 Learning poverty is defined as the inability to read and understand a simple text by age 10. This indicator depicts the share of primary-aged children who are not in school (schooling deprived) or are below the minimum proficiency level in reading (learning deprived). 9 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Recommendations This report concludes with recommendations for policy- makers and decision-makers at the national and the school The takeaways and lessons above imply the urgent need level for short, medium and long- term strategies aimed at to work towards children’s safe return to school and, until remediating learning loss in MENA and creating equitable, this is possible, ensure that all children have equitable effective and resilient teaching and learning systems16 access to remote learning. A concerted effort is also which support access to learning, engaged learners and needed to accelerate learning and tackle the learning crisis enabling environments. The recommendations are aligned that predated COVID-19, by providing opportunities for with the Framework for Reopening Schools17 developed remedial learning and catch-up for all children. Recovering jointly by UNESCO, UNICEF, the WB, and the World Food lost learning in MENA will require reimagining education Programme (WFP), as well as ongoing commitments to systems in several important ways: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 418 and the Education 2030 agenda19. The recommendations are categorised in three phases20, in alignment with the various stages of the 1 During the pandemic and early recovery global pandemic21: it is important to address inequalities in access and engagement, as school closures can disproportionately impact marginalised and vulnerable groups, potentially deepening inequality. It is also critical to provide access for the early years and make remote instruction more effective through stronger support and guidance for teachers, engagement of parents and caregivers, and through more learner-centered pedagogical practices. 2 As children return to in-person schooling it is critical to ensure safe school reopening, assess potential learning losses and support teachers to ensure that teaching is adapted to the learning levels of the students to support catch up and recover lost learning. 3 Policy-makers and educators must reflect on and address the lessons emerging from the provision of remote and hybrid instruction over the past two years. Education systems will need to strengthen their infrastructure (including technology) to become more adapt ive and resilient, in order to ensure effective learning on a sustainable basis for all children across the MENA region. Halfpoint/Shutterstock.com 16 OECD (2020). A framework to guide an education response to the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020. 17 UNESCO, UNICEF, World Bank, WFP (April 2020). Framework for reopening schools. 18 https://sdg4education2030.org/the-goal. 19 UNESCO (2016). Education 2030 framework for action: https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000245656_eng 20 Countries in the MENA region are going through different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, and tremendous efforts have been already made by the governments to mitigate the learning loss. Policy-makers could use this phasing as a reference to reflect and adjust the education response plans based on the actual situation in their countries. 21 World Bank (May 2020). The COVID-19 Pandemic: Shocks to Education and Policy Responses. 10 Executive Summary Pandemic period: 1 Continue to address inequalities in access to and engagement in remote learning, continuity and ensure effectiveness of teaching and learning, provide access for early years, focus on engagement foundational skills and prevent school dropout. 2 Provide stronger support and guidance to teachers to deal with the challenges and opportunities of the pandemic, strengthening teacher policy and investment in teachers. 3 Ensure ongoing engagement of parents and caregivers in their children’s learning with clear and inclusive communication strategies and supportive policies. Early recovery period: 1 Ensure safe school reopening based on evidence-based decision-making. reopening and 2 Conduct comprehensive learning assessments to inform education planning and remediating enable the provision of compensatory quality education to all learners. 3 Support teachers to ensure that teaching is adapted to the learning levels of the students so that they can catch up and recover lost learning. 4 Implement remedial and catch-up learning policies and programmes to remediate lost learning. Post-pandemic period: 1 Develop and implement policies that enable accelerated learning for all learners, accelerating and including the most vulnerable, while building more resilient systems. improving 2 Strengthen cross-sectoral coordination and provide holistic support for the rebuilding of equitable, effective and resilient education systems for all learners. 3 Identify mechanisms to finance the pandemic response in the education sector and advocate for efficient, effective and equitable investment in education. The disruption caused by the pandemic has created an opportunity to not only recover lost learning, but also to build stronger, more resilient education systems that are better able to serve their students and societies. We must therefore seize this opportunity and take immediate action to ensure effective teaching and learning for all of the region’s children. 11 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa 12 Executive Summary CHAPTER 1 Introduction 13 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa 1. Introduction 1.1 The Problem: 1.2 The context: schooling, learning and learning disrupted by COVID-19 earning before COVID-19 The COVID-19 pandemic poses a serious threat to Socioeconomic disparities and instability children’s learning. At the onset of the crisis in early 2020, The twenty countries of the MENA region host a child most countries around the world closed their education population of over 185 million (37 per cent of the total institutions to contain the spread of the virus, leaving over population) and reflect a wide range of socio-economic a billion students away from school premises22. contexts, from high-income (e.g. Gulf states) to low-income countries, and from countries facing humanitarian crises The speed and scale of the disruption to education are (e.g. Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) to middle income unparalleled, risking exacerbating the learning crisis countries where most of the region’s population lives. in areas, especially in those areas like MENA where Wide socio-economic disparities across countries are accessing learning was already a challenge for many. compounded by substantial disparities within countries, An entire generation of children has been affected alongside factors such as urban or rural residence, gender, by this unprecedented disruption, with the potential class and family affiliation. impact extending beyond the short and medium-term and beyond the education sector. The potential impact Political unrest has led to protracted humanitarian crises, includes consequences for mental health, well-being, which have compounded pre-existing challenges (including socialisation and prospects for being active participants in inequitable development pathways, resource scarcity, society, including in the labour market. increasing poverty and malnutrition) and caused the largest displacement and refugee crisis since the Second World The pandemic unfolded in 2020 against an uncertain socio- War24. In 2020 in the region, there were 38 million children political and economic background in MENA, putting social in need of humanitarian assistance, representing one in services under further pressure, depressing economies and five children in MENA and one fifth of the total number of exacerbating pre-existing inequalities23. children in need globally25. The region also hosted over six million internally displaced children and over six million To understand better how the COVID-19 crisis was refugee children, with a high likelihood of not being in school. affecting the education systems and how the countries were responding to the crisis in the education sector, Access and learning crisis national and international agencies including the UN and As a result of this combination of challenges, prior to the WB rapidly established a monitoring mechanism (a the start of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, an estimated 15 government-level survey) focusing on the measures that million children in the region between the ages of 5-14 governments have put in place to ensure continuity of were out of school. An additional 10 million children learning. The findings of this survey, as well as simulation were at risk of dropping out of school, due to poverty, analysis conducted by the WB in June 2020 (updated social marginalisation, displacement and the disruption of here in cooperation with UNICEF and UNESCO), with infrastructure caused by conflict26. While most children go contributions from UNHCR and UNRWA, form the basis of to primary school, the likelihood of not being in school the analysis and recommendations of this report. is 16 per cent for lower secondary education27, and an estimated 35 per cent for upper secondary education28. 22 Education: From disruption to recovery (unesco.org). 23 A simulation analysis of the potential impact of COVID-19 conducted by UNICEF MENARO, covering nine MENA countries, found that the percentage of children living in multidimensional poverty in the region could have increased from 44 percent before the pandemic to 52 percent by the end of the 2020, with a potential increase of 12 million children living in multidimensional poverty, see UNICEF MENARO (July 2020). Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 on child multi-dimensional poverty in MENA. 24 UNESCO, WFP, SCI, Desk Study on Main Trends and Analysis on Out of School Children, in Middle East and North Africa Region, not published. 25 UNICEF. Regional Office Management Plan 2022—2025. 26 UNICEF (2021) Out-of-school children. 27 UNICEF (2018). Out of School Children in MENA – Regional Factsheet. 28 UNICEF (2019). MENA Generation 2030. 14 Chapter 1 • Introduction This is accompanied by high inequalities, including a 1.3 The goal: enabling learning for all difference of up to 10 years of schooling between the most educated 20 per cent and least educated 20 per cent29. If education stakeholders are to ‘build back better’, mitigate the learning loss associated with the pandemic and enable The region was experiencing a learning crisis before all of MENA’s learners to experience quality education, it the pandemic, with huge disparities across and within is crucial to clarify what enables learning for all. Enabling countries and significant numbers of students failing to learning is the result of a combination of elements acquire the critical knowledge and skills needed for lifelong including: access (to schools and/or learning platforms learning, employability, personal empowerment and active and technological tools), engagement (enabled by citizenship30. Education systems were already constrained learner-centred content, effective teaching and supportive by outdated teaching and examination practices and relationships) and an enabling environment (including a mismatch between learning content, contemporary teacher development, effective leadership and data realities and labour market requirements31. Before the systems), as illustrated in Figure 1 below. COVID-19 pandemic, nearly 60 per cent of children in the MENA region could not read or understand a simple age- appropriate text at age 1032. Vast disparities existed within countries; in Tunisia there was a difference in basic reading achievement of 34 percentage points between the richest and the poorest quintile, even prior to COVID-1933. Box 1. Higher education context in MENA The countries in the Arab States - according to the UNESCO Institute for Statistics classification34 - have a total of 34 million tertiary-age people, representing 5.8 per cent of the global tertiary-age population. The Gross Enrolment Ratio35 in the region was 33.8 percent, with higher female participation (35.8 per cent) than male (31.9 per cent). Participation patterns across countries vary widely, ranging from 70.9 percent in Saudi Arabia to 5.3 per cent in Djibouti. The gender balance also varies, with more female students in Algeria, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Palestine/Palestinian territories, and Qatar and more male students in Iran, ESB Professional/Shutterstock.com Iraq, Yemen, Mauritania and Djibouti. Considering the diverse size of the countries and economies in the region, it is useful to compare government expenditure per tertiary student, which varies significantly, between the Gulf countries and the rest of the region, ranging from US$71,133 in Kuwait (2004) to US$952 in Jordan (2019). 29 UNICEF (forthcoming). Learning, Skills and Employability in the Middle East and North Africa – Investing in Children as We Build a Next and Better Normal. 30 UNICEF (2017). Reimagining Life Skills and Citizenship Education in the Middle East and North Africa: A Four-Dimensional and Systems Approach to 21st Century Skills. 31 UNICEF (forthcoming). Learning, Skills and Employability in the Middle East and North Africa – Investing in Children as We Build a Next and Better Normal. 32 World Bank (2019). Ending Learning Poverty – What Will It Take? 33 UNICEF MICS (2018). 34 Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen 35 Gross Enrolment Ratio definition: Number of students enrolled in a given level of education, regardless of age, expressed as a percentage of the official school-age population corresponding to the same level of education. (UNESCO UIS) 15 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Figure 1. Building back better’: enabling learning for all Access to learning • school/home space • technology/learning platforms • including the marginalised Engaged learners • learner-centred content/ Enabling system teaching & learning approaches (equitable, • effective teachers/engaged parents/support & feedback effective, resilient) • wellbeing Enabling environment • health & safety • social interaction • teacher development • effective leadership/ management • M & E system In practice, these elements require the following: Access to learning Access to learning - access to schools for face-to-face learning, learning platforms, technological tools (computers, tablets, and smartphones) and an internet connection and/ or materials for remote learning, or appropriate combinations of these for hybrid learning. Engaged learners Engaged learners - learner-centred activities and/or materials (appropriate for learners’ age and capabilities and enabling the development of social-emotional and life skills36 as well as foundational skills) supported by effective pedagogy and curriculum, effective teachers (whose approach is centred on the learners) and engaged parents/caregivers who provide both support and feedback. Enabling environment Enabling environment - a safe school/home environment (including safe interaction with peers), strong initial teacher preparation, ongoing professional development for teachers (including skills for effective online/hybrid teaching), effective leadership and management (including clear communication with stakeholders) and strong monitoring and evaluation systems (including learning assessment) to enable ongoing provision of learning that meets the needs of all learners. The school closures associated with the pandemic have This report investigates the ways in which the challenges of cut many children off from experiencing learning, by the pandemic and the associated policy and programmatic disrupting access (especially for those without the tools responses thus far are affecting the aspects of access, and/or connectivity required for online or hybrid learning) engagement and enabling environments for which the joint and making it more difficult to engage in learning (due survey of Ministries of Education and simulations provide to disrupted relationships with teachers and lack of evidence or projections, including pertaining to children experience of online teaching and learning) and providing who are marginalised by refugee status, poverty, disability or enabling environments (due to school closures). gender. 36 UNICEF (2017). Reimagining Life Skills and Citizenship Education in the Middle East and North Africa: A Four-Dimensional and Systems Approach to 21st Century Skills. 16 Chapter 2 • The problem: learning disruption CHAPTER 2 The problem: learning disruption 17 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa 2. The problem: learning disruption 2.1 MENA school closures: overview Education in MENA has been negatively affected by COVID-19 related school closures in addition to conflicts and economic shocks, generating a growing fear of generational regression in learning and skills37 38. Between March 2020 and January 2021, the duration of school closures in MENA was between four and six weeks longer than the global average, according to UNESCO estimates39. These estimates suggest that an average © UNICEF/Al Smadi of two thirds of an academic year (22 weeks) was lost worldwide over this period, while the MENA regional average for full or partial school closure40 was estimated at 28 weeks; the second highest after Latin America and the Caribbean (see Figure 2 below). Figure 2. Duration of complete and partial school closures (in weeks) by region, March 2020 to January 2021 Source: UNESCO global monitoring of school closures 37 UNICEF (2020). an overview of country COVID-19 “Safe return to schools” responses in Middle East and North Africa (MENA). 38 UNICEF, MENA internal education covid-19 response tracker. 39 https://en.unesco.org/covid19/educationresponse. 40 School closure refers to physical closure of school premises and/or buildings and cessation of regular in-person schooling. However, learning can still continue through remote learning. 18 Chapter 2 • The problem: learning disruption Figure 3, below, shows the estimated number of weeks of 2.2 MENA school closures in detail school closures (i.e. when schools were physically closed) per country across MENA between March 2020 and June 2019-2020 academic year 2021. The duration of closures varies widely between Students of all ages across MENA experienced various countries, ranging from one week in Sudan to forty-seven patterns of school closure and reopening, in response to the weeks in Kuwait for the two academic years (2019/2020 double challenge of containing the spread of the COVID-19 and 2020/2021) combined41. and ensuring learning continuity. In January 2020 the majority of schools were still open or on a scheduled break, The number of weeks of in-person learning lost may impact pending the decision of national health and education the entire generation of children if appropriate policies authorities. Iran, the first country in the region to report a to redress learning loss and ensure ongoing learning confirmed case (in February 2020), was the exception, as are not put in place, especially for the most vulnerable national health authorities took drastic measures - including learners, including girls, the poor, refugees and those with school closure - earlier in January to limit the spread of disabilities. the virus42. During February, in response to lack of clear guidance or guarantees regarding safe school operations, Ministries of Education in the region began to close their institutions and explore ways to ensure learning continuity. Figure 3. Duration of school closures (in weeks) on average in MENA, March 2020 to june 2021 Kuwait 47 Syrian Arab Republic Saudi Arabia Yemen, Rep. Iraq Qatar Egypt, Arab Rep. Iran, Islamic Rep. Djibouti MENA Avg 25 Iraq (KRI) Oman Lebanon West Bank and Gaza Libya Bahrain Jordan Tunisia United Arab Emirates Morocco Algeria Sudan 1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Source: UNESCO global monitoring of school closures 41 Countries may have shifted their academic calendar, but this is not shown in the figure. 42 UNICEF (31 March 2020). Situation Report. 19 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa In March 2020, in response to the rapid spread of the virus across the region, national health authorities made the During November 2020, health and education authorities decision, in coordination with education stakeholders, in the region were concerned about the epidemiological to close all schools in the following seven countries: Iran, situation of the virus, leading to an increase in school Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait and Palestine/ closures, but by early December 2020, schools were fully Palestinian territories. By the end of March, all schools in or partially open in 15 countries and fully closed in only the region were fully closed, with the exception of Qatar five countries (Djibouti, Iraq [Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI)], (partially closed) and three countries with schools closed Jordan, Libya and Saudi Arabia). Sudan’s school year, which for a scheduled break (Algeria, Bahrain, and United Arab usually runs from June to March, was initially scheduled to Emirates). Ministries of Education in the region were restart in September 2020, but was further postponed to not prepared for this unprecedented scenario, in which January 2021. full school closures deprived 110 million students of opportunities for learning and socialisation and other As of late January 2021, only one country (Saudi Arabia)45 services schools provide, including health services and kept schools closed and by early February 2021, almost 80 nutrition43. per cent of countries in MENA had operational education institutions, enabling in-person or hybrid learning. The reopening of schools in MENA began in April and May of 2020 in three countries (Egypt, Lebanon and Qatar), with 2.3 Reopening priority given to grades undertaking national examinations before the end of the academic year in June 2020. By the Ministries of Education in MENA took a flexible, phased end of July 2020, all schools in the region were either on approach to reopening schools, in combination with the a scheduled break or fully closed, marking the end of the provision of remote learning, in response to COVID-19. 2019-2020 academic year. The decision to reopen schools physically was influenced significantly by the evolution of the pandemic in each 2020-2021 academic year country, as well as by public opinion regarding the safety of In September 2020, when all schools in the region were schools and the lack of reliable evidence available to guide scheduled to resume, the scientific evidence regarding national education responses. virus transmission among school age population to make informed decisions about safe reopening, was lacking. The majority of countries went through various phases Almost 50 per cent of governments chose to postpone of closure and reopening. In Jordan, for example, schools reopening, continuing with remote learning or operating reopened on 1 September 2020 on a partial basis, but with partial reopening. closed fully later that month, reopening later in the school year46. Other countries including Syria, Algeria, and Yemen By the end of September 2020, face-to-face teaching and reopened on a phased basis during the 2020-2021 school learning had resumed in schools in three countries (Iraq, year, prioritising exam classes, certain grades or areas with Qatar44 and Syria), while schools in seven countries (Algeria, low infection rates. Egypt, Libya, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and Sudan) were still fully physically closed, with remote and/or hybrid As of 22 September 2021, schools had fully re-opened in learning available in some cases. By the end of October eleven countries, partially re-opened in seven countries and 2020, the number of countries providing face-to-face remained closed in two countries in the regio47. learning by fully reopening schools had increased to nine, and six countries had partially reopened, demonstrating eagerness towards resuming continuity of learning in person. 43 UNESCO. Global monitoring of school closures, Education: From disruption to recovery (unesco.org). 44 In Qatar, the return was to hybrid learning in most private schools (the majority) and in all government schools – as of September 2021, schools have only 50% capacity at school (using shifts). 45 However in Saudi Arabia all students were able to access the Madarasati learning platform. 46 UNICEF Jordan (2020). COVID-19 Education Response in Jordan March to November 2020. 47 Data retrieved from the UNESCO map on school closures and UIS on 8 November, 2021. As at September 2021, eleven fully school reopened countries include: Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Palestine, Sudan, Syria Arab Republic, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen; seven partially school reopened countries include: Bahrain, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Qatar, and Saudi Arabic; two school closure countries include: Iraq and Iran. 20 Chapter 3 • Responses to Date: Strategies to Enable Learning during the COVID-19 Pandemic CHAPTER 3 Responses to date: strategies to enable learning during the COVID-19 pandemic 21 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa 3. Responses to date: strategies to enable learning during the COVID-19 pandemic 3.1 Access to learning through television and radio, and distributing paper-based take-home packages. Online learning platforms were the i. Supply: provision of remote and hybrid predominant model used overall, employed in 38 per cent learning of countries for pre-primary, 90 per cent of countries for primary and 95 per cent of countries for both lower and Countries across the region reacted with a mix of upper secondary level. Television was the second most approaches to ensure continuity of learning for their used, employed in 33 per cent of countries for pre-primary, student populations during school closures48. Approaches 76 per cent for primary and lower secondary and 71 per included: face-to-face learning for the earlier grades, hybrid cent for upper secondary. Overall, pre-primary and primary learning for most grades and full remote learning using education were less likely to be served by any of the mixed delivery modalities. The strategies used varied not remote learning approaches. only from country to country (see Annex 3 for details), but according to education grades (see Figure 4 below), and These strategies also varied according to the level of also from school to school within countries49. teacher engagement and participation, and the amount of guidance provided to parents on home-schooling Countries used diverse means of delivery for remote and extra-curricular activities. In addition, ten countries50 learning, including establishing and operating digital focused on conducting national exams, abiding by safety learning platforms, developing and broadcasting lessons protocols, including physical distancing. Figure 4. Types of delivery system deployed by education level during school closures, 2020 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 90% 95% 95% 20% 76% 76% 71% 10% 38% 38% 33% 33% 33% 19% 14% 14% 19% 0% 5% Pre-Primary Primary Lower Upper Pre-Primary Primary Lower Upper Pre-Primary Primary Lower Upper Pre-Primary Primary Lower Upper Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Radio Television Online learning platforms Paper based take-home materials for parents/students Yes Sources: UNESCO-UNICEF-World Bank Survey on National Education Responses to COVID-19 School Closures (2020) and UNICEF Country offices (2020) and John Hopkins tracker 48 UNESCO, UNICEF, the World Bank and OECD (2021). What's Next? Lessons on Education Recovery: Findings from a Survey of Ministries of Education amid the COVID-10 Pandemic. 49 UNESCO/UNICEF/World Bank (2020). What Have We Learnt? Overview of Findings from a Survey of Ministries of Education on National Responses to COVID-19. 50 Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Palestine/Palestinian territories, Sudan, Tunisia and Yemen 22 Chapter 3 • Responses to Date: Strategies to Enable Learning during the COVID-19 Pandemic ii. Reach: participation in remote Participation in remote and hybrid learning programmes and hybrid learning depends on learners having access to the relevant resources, including internet connections, computers, Governments across the region ensured continuity of tablets, smartphones, television and digital content in the learning during school closures through remote learning language of instruction. Those without access to these modalities. However, an estimated 37 million students were resources and tools are at risk of being left behind as school not reached (see Figure 5), based on the data collected in closures drag on and as the world faces regular potential May and June 202051. Regional-level evidence shows that outbreaks in the future. The UNICEF analysis of household 40 per cent of students did not have access to and/or did survey data shows that in the MENA region, only 26 per not participate in the digital and broadcast remote learning cent of students have access to both the internet and a options provided. Similar patterns were recorded in Eastern computer and 52 per cent had access to a television (see and Southern Africa (49 per cent), West and Central Africa Figure 6). (48 per cent) and South Asia (38 per cent). The majority of the students who were not reached were already Children living in low-income households, who already vulnerable and disadvantaged52. achieve lower educational attainment levels than their peers living in more affluent households, are likely to be further disadvantaged by poor teacher capacity, lack of parental support and resources needed for remote and hybrid learning. Figure 5. Share and number of students (pre-primary to upper secondary) potentially reached and not reached by digital and broadcast remote learning policies by region Source: UNICEF (2020): COVID-19 – Are Children able to Continue Learning during School Closure? 51 UNICEF (2020). COVID-19 – Are Children able to continue Learning during School Closure? 52 Ibid. 23 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Figure 6. Share of students (pre-primary to upper secondary) potentially reached by different types of remote learning method by region Source: UNICEF (2020): COVID-19 – Are Children able to Continue Learning during School Closure? Ministries of Education in all MENA countries made at least one online platform available to enable home-based ۹ learning during school closures. However, internet access is available to varying degrees across the region, with nine countries having an internet penetration rate of lower than 70 per cent (see Figure 7). For some countries, including Libya, Sudan, Syria and Yemen, internet penetration is lower than 35 per cent. While overall reach is higher in other countries, data on the uptake and effectiveness of the various remote learning options is limited. This is mostly due to challenges in widescale data collection during the COVID-19 pandemic, possibly caused in part by a lack of data collection frameworks to guide national initiatives. maxbelchenko/Shutterstock.com 24 Chapter 3 • Responses to Date: Strategies to Enable Learning during the COVID-19 Pandemic Figure 7. Internet penetration rate in MENA, 2019 to present 100 100 100 95 100 96 99 90 75 78 74 80 70 67 71 67 70 56 57 60 49 50 34 40 31 27 30 22 20 10 0 Ba a n Pa an an M ya ti en n q ud tar co t Re n Em ia Le it Dj n ne a s ic yp ri te no Ira Ira bi ab da ou ai a is bl Li b oc Om rd m ge w sti a hr ra ira Eg un pu Su ba ib Q Ku Ye Jo or le Al iA T ab Sa Ar Ar n d ria ite Sy Un Latest data Benchmark Data source: "Percentage of Individuals using the Internet (excel)" from ITU Statistics (2021) https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/stat/default.aspx The available survey data on digital connectivity (i.e. As shown in Figure 8, students in several countries were access to both a device and the internet) pre-dates the likely to be excluded from ongoing learning opportunities, COVID crisis and the reality may have improved in recent due to lack of access to the internet, exacerbating the years. However, these surveys provide the most reliable existing digital divide and educational inequalities. Those data currently available, by education level, for selected in lower grades, in particular pre-primary and primary, were countries in the region. They indicate limited internet more likely to be excluded than those in higher grades. access across all education levels, with implications for In-depth analysis considering other key areas of inequities the accessibility of digital remote learning. (e.g. rural vs urban or income levels) could provide interesting insights regarding where policy makers need to focus to design effective policy responses. Figure 8. Digital connectivity per education level in MENA 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total Total Total Total Total Total Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Primary Pre-primary Pre-primary Pre-primary Pre-primary Pre-primary Pre-primary Upper Secondary Upper Secondary Upper Secondary Upper Secondary Lower Secondary Lower Secondary Lower Secondary Lower Secondary Lower Secondary Lower Secondary Algeria Egypt Iraq Jordan Morocco Tunisia (2018-19) (2015) (2018) (2017-18) (2009-2010) (2018) Source: UNICEF Global database on school-age digital connectivity [Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Survey, Demographic and Health Survey, Morocco Household and Youth Survey (MHYS)]. 25 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa ©UNICEF/Ahmed Emad Ministries of Education across MENA, with the support of Ò Extended electricity hours in refugee camps education stakeholders, implemented several strategies to (e.g. Zaatari Refugee Camp in Jordan54) to ensure bridge the digital divide within their student populations. children can watch television when MoE lessons are These initiatives aim to enable all students, and especially the aired; most vulnerable, to take part in learning activities, particularly Ò Donated and/or subsidised ICT devices (tablets where devices and connectivity are limited. These mitigation with hotspots) with preloaded learning resources strategies for bridging the digital divide include: provided to children. In Algeria, servers and rooters Ò Internet zero rating or subsidised internet access were provided by UNICEF to expand coverage (data free) for accessing Ministry of Education of existing distance learning platform55; (MoE) websites during specified times of day. For Ò Access to online learning platforms enabled via example, free data packages were provided in mobile phones. Jordan by UNICEF between March and November 2020, to vulnerable students in camps and informal tented settlements53; 53 UNICEF (2020). COVID-19 Education Response in Jordan, March to November 2020. 54 UNICEF Jordan (November 2020). COVID-19 Education Response. 55 UNICEF. (2020). Country Office Annual Report: Algeria. 26 Chapter 3 • Responses to Date: Strategies to Enable Learning during the COVID-19 Pandemic Box 2. Higher education responses To provide an evidence-based overview of the current States, hybrid learning has been the most common situation of the higher education system at national and response overall. The pandemic caused suspension or global levels, UNESCO conducted a Survey on Covid-19: cancellation of teaching and research activities both Reopening and Reimagining Universities56 between globally and in four out of six of the reporting Arab States; December 2020 and February 2021, addressed to 193 though Egypt reported an increase in research and UNESCO Member States and 11 Associate Members. activities focused on COVID-19 and education policy. Six Arab States responded to the survey: Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Qatar, Palestine/Palestinian territories and the The contraction of global job opportunities associated United Arab Emirates. with the pandemic is making the transition from higher education to the labour market more challenging, The survey explored the diverse impact of the pandemic with employers increasingly prioritising applicants on the higher education system in terms of access, with technology skills. In the Arab States, Palestine/ equity, quality of teaching and learning, university Palestinian territories and the UAE highlighted the operations, national challenges, emerging issues and digitalisation of the labour market, with the UAE strategic responses. It found some countries were reporting that new workforce entrants are beginning able to transform the challenges associated with the their careers online rather than face-to-face. Libya rapid digitalisation of education into opportunities, reported a decrease in the demand for new jobs in with strong government support and international both the public and private sectors. These findings have cooperation. The reporting Arab states shared strategic implications for the integration of digital skills in learning priorities of expanding infrastructure and the availability design for higher education across disciplines. of digital devices for online learning, supporting teachers more effectively and increasing international Enabling environment collaboration via research and policy dialogues. Despite the closure of many universities, the impact of COVID-19 on university staff compared to the previous Access academic year is limited. In the Arab States, Egypt, Qatar, Though the impact of COVID-19 on the higher Palestine/ Palestinian territories and the UAE reported no education global enrolment varies by region and income impact on university staff (academic and administrative) level (depending on government funding and levels and only Jordan and Libya indicated a reduction in of domestic enrolment), all six responding Arab States employment of up to 20 per cent and a general salary indicated no reduction in student enrolment. Pandemic- reduction (which included administrative staff in Jordan). related travel restrictions affected international students’ physical access, but the transfer to online learning Finance enabled ongoing access. Surprisingly, in Egypt the Regarding financial support from government and external number of inbound mobile students increased from sources – often crucial to the survival of higher education 12,617 in 2019/2020 to 15,709 in 2020/2021, though institutions – three of the responding countries (Egypt, Egypt also recorded a decrease in outbound students Palestine/ Palestinian territories and UAE) - indicated from 15,500 in 2019/2020 to 8,900 in 2020/2021. stable funding during the pandemic, while two (Jordan and Libya) reported a reduction of income. This was due Engagement to enrolment loss in Jordan and to reducing fees in Libya. The major impact of COVID-19 on learning design in Three countries reported receiving additional income from higher education globally has been the move from face- government (Egypt and Libya) or international aid (Jordan). to-face to online learning, with hybrid learning being Source: Based on UNESCO, COVID-19 Reopening and reimagining the most popular method in all regions except Europe universities: Survey on Higher Education via UNESCO National (where online is preferred). In the six responding Arab Commissions, 2021. 56 UNESCO. (2021). COVID-19: Reopening and Reimagining Universities, Survey on Higher Education through the UNESCO National Commissions. 27 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa 3.2 Engaged learners 9). Parental guidelines for supporting learning at home were reinforced with regular follow-up phone calls by i. Parents and caregivers: schools in eight countries (38 per cent) in the region. Only enabling home-based learning 5 per cent of countries provided support to parents and caregivers for providing ongoing stimulation and play for COVID-19 school closures highlighted the significance young children. of the home environment in learning57. Parents and caregivers became more vital agents in their children’s COVID-related school closures in MENA also interrupted learning than ever before, at a time when many lacked the other critical services provided by education systems, time and/or capacity to fulfil this role effectively. Across including childcare and school meals. The absence of these MENA, government efforts to facilitate learning continuity services put additional financial burdens on households, at home during school closures by supporting parents and especially the most vulnerable who are most reliant on caregivers varied from country to country and included these forms of support. In response to this shortfall, two both education-related measures and the provision of food countries (10 per cent) – Saudi Arabia and Sudan - reported and psychosocial support to children and/or caregivers. providing meals or rations to families during school closures, and three countries (14 per cent) – Iran, Saudi Overall, nine of the 21 countries (43 per cent) reported Arabia and Sudan – reported providing psychological providing materials to guide parents in home-based counselling services for children. Saudi Arabia and learning for primary and secondary students and four Sudan were the only countries who reported providing countries (19 per cent) for pre-primary students (see Figure psychological support for caregivers (see Figure 9). Figure 9. Mitigation measures targeting parents and caregivers for continued learning at home (MENA regional overview) 100% 90% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 80% 70% 60% 24% 29% 50% 48% 52% 62% 57% 62% 57% 40% 30% 20% 10% 43% 38% 19% 14% 5% 10% 10% 5% 0% Guidance Guidance Tips and materials Regular Meals/food Psychosocial Psychosocial No measures materials materials for continued telephone rations to counselling support for home-based for pre-primary stimulation follow-up by families services for caregivers learning for education and play school (teacher, of students for children primary for young children principle, etc.) and secondary education Education related Others None Yes No No information Source: UNESCO-UNICEF-World Bank Survey on National Education Responses to COVID-19 School Closures (2020). 57 UNESCO/UNICEF/World Bank (2020): What Have We Learnt? Overview of Findings from a Survey of Ministries of Education on National Responses to COVID-19. 28 Chapter 3 • Responses to Date: Strategies to Enable Learning during the COVID-19 Pandemic ii. Catching up with remedial and accelerated learning Building on past experiences dealing with pandemics in MENA and beyond, governments in MENA implemented a range of responses, including both remediation and acceleration programmes, to catch up on learning lost during school closures. Fourteen per cent of reporting countries increased class time to combat learning loss from primary to upper secondary level, 24 per cent introduced remedial programmes to help children catch up and 10 per cent used accelerated programmes (see Figure 10 below). Remediation and acceleration: what’s the difference? 1 At a basic level, remediation (or reteaching) means ‘teaching again’ content that students previously missed or failed to learn. 2 Acceleration focuses on teaching only what must be learned at a given level, focusing on the minimum skills and knowledge required for a student to access grade-level material adequately. © UNICEF/Al Smadi The limited scope of remedial strategies in the region is alarming and will exacerbate the pre-existing learning crisis – increasing the risk of dropout, especially for the most vulnerable groups - if policies and action to redress learning loss are not implemented urgently. Figure 10. Different approaches to limiting learning loss in MENA, July-October 2020 100% 90% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 80% 70% 60% 50% 43% 52% 52% 52% 48% 48% 57% 40% 67% 30% 20% 10% 24% 14% 14% 14% 19% 19% 10% 0% Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary Remedial programmes Accelerated None Don’t know Other strategies Programmes Increase class Time Other Mitigation measures Yes No No information Source: UNESCO-UNICEF-World Bank Survey on National Education Responses to COVID-19 School Closures (2020) and UNICEF Country offices (2020). 29 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Box 3. Refugee children and youth at risk of dropping out With most national education systems shifting to home- cases, delayed the official start of the new school based learning, many refugee children, adolescents and year until 2 November 2020. Throughout November, youth have been particularly at risk of being excluded 37,944 UNRWA students followed classes using a from learning. Their growing frustration at being hybrid model for secondary grades and a full remote isolated and having their movement restricted has been approach for all other grades. A two-week lockdown compounded by struggling to access online learning from 14 to 29 November resulted in all students due to lack of internet, devices, and necessary support returning to full remote learning. From 30 November services, including language classes and psycho-social 2020 until the end of the year, all students were able to support. Additionally, suspension of school meal resume their classes using hybrid learning. programmes has impacted marginalised children’s Ò Syria was the sole UNRWA Field where all 50,609 nutrition and health. students returned to full school-based, face-to-face Meanwhile, refugee parents have shouldered the learning on 13 September. Due to a lack of extra competing demands of supervising their children’s teachers and classroom space to enable social learning while protecting their family’s economic distancing, the emphasis was on health and hygiene welfare. Their children are at higher risk of not returning measures. The length of the school day was reduced to school after reopening, or dropping out completely by 30 minutes to allow time for school cleaning due to learning loss, protection issues and the economic between the two shifts in 62 of 102 agency schools pressures experienced by their families. Various catch-up operating on a double shift. modalities have been used to support refugee learners in Ò In Gaza, the start of the school year for its 287,019 MENA, including face-to-face learning in Syria and Gaza, students was postponed until 17 October 2020 for hybrid learning in Jordan and remote learning in Lebanon. Grades 7-9, and 20 October for Grades 1-6; education Ò In Syria, the focus of the catch-up programme was was carried out through remote learning. From 2 to prepare Grade 9 students for undertaking the November, education for Grades 7-9 was delivered national exams over the summer. In Gaza, catch- through hybrid learning, with the move back to full up was organised for all students for two weeks in remote learning starting 5 December 2020. August 2020 and in Jordan, a two-week catch-up Ò The West Bank began the school year on 6 programme was offered in early September 2020, September with hybrid learning, initially for Grades using hybrid learning. In Lebanon, catch-up classes 1-4 and extended to Grades 5-10 on 20 September. were provided to students who had not been able to The 46,016 students divided their time between participate fully in remote learning due to challenges school attendance – practicing physical distancing in with access to technology. This was followed by a classrooms – and remote learning at home. Classes full, four-week catch-up programme starting in mid- were split with half of the students attending school September 2020 for all grades. The official start of while the other half studied at home, on rotation the 2020-21 school year in all five fields of operation during the six-day school week, with three days (Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian territories (and West for face-to-face learning per group. Students were Bank and Gaza) and Syria) was marked by uncertainty regularly supported through remote psychosocial as COVID-19 continued to spread across the region. support, and the Psychosocial Support and Ò In Jordan, for 119,056 UNRWA students, the school Recreational Activities Resource Guide58 was made year began on 1 September 2020 with hybrid available to teachers and school counsellors. learning. The focus was on the four core subjects, With the emphasis on remote and hybrid learning the with a reduction in the number of lessons allocated pandemic, the Education and Information Management to non-core subjects. With the rise in infection rates, and Technology (IMTD) departments worked together all schools in Jordan, including UNRWA schools, to put an agency-wide safe and accessible Self Learning moved Grades 4-10 to full remote learning on Platform in place to support students. Psychosocial 17 September 2020. The decision regarding the support was also provided to students and a booklet attendance of children in Grades 1-3 was initially of recreational games and learning activities was also left up to parents. However, on 9 October 2020, all finalised. In addition, UNRWA launched a Writing and ages moved to full remote learning, with support for Drawing Event in July for students. children with special needs built into the model. Ò In Lebanon, the devastating explosions in the Beirut Sources: Based on UNHCR, COVID-19 Emergency Education Response Port damaged many Government schools. The physical Update 19 November 2020 and UNRWA, COVID-19 response summary August-December 2020 damage, combined with an increase in COVID-19 58 Psychosocial Support Recreational Activities Resource Guide (unrwa.org). 30 Chapter 3 • Responses to Date: Strategies to Enable Learning during the COVID-19 Pandemic 3.3 Enabling environment to support students’ learning. In the UAE, educational practitioners in Dubai and Sharjah were introduced to i. Teacher development: the Ready to Come Back: Teachers Preparedness Training skills for a new reality Package via virtual workshops (see participants’ testimony in Box 4). The unprecedented disruption to schools caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, impacting over 63 million teachers Box 4. Teachers preparedness training worldwide, has highlighted the need for educational package in UAE systems to adapt rapidly to changing demands. The pandemic reinforced the need for ongoing professional A participant explained: “We, [practitioners from] the development, psychological support and social-emotional GEMS Cambridge International Private School in Sharjah learning for teachers, in addition to protecting their rights (UAE) participated in and appreciated Module 2 of the and working conditions, and generating ongoing research Teacher Preparedness Training Package, introducing the of rapidly changing teaching and learning environments59. importance of mental health and psychosocial support. With the sudden switch to remote and hybrid learning, After attending the training, our counselling teams, teachers needed new pedagogic skills to enable them senior leadership, and medical teams created tailored to use new technologies to deliver online and remote workshops and exercises focusing on cognitive, learning effectively, as well as dealing with heavier emotional, social, and physical aspects. This made our workloads, adapting content, conducting formative students, staff and parents prepared and aware of the assessment and establishing new working routines for precautionary measures that contribute to staying themselves and their learners60. Various initiatives took safe, identifying common stressors, and understanding place at regional and country levels to support them techniques to cope with stress and anxiety. during this transition. Parents were also assisted at home with strategies The first priority for international development partners at and helpful tips to overcome environment-induced the regional level was the coordinated effort to develop stressors. As for teachers, they reinforced mindfulness the Ready to Come Back: Teachers Preparedness Training and promoted supportive communication skills. Package61 to support teachers’ ability to enable learning for all during the pandemic and facilitate school reopening. Overall, we witnessed a smoother transition and our students, teachers and parents were well-equipped This regional training package, adopted by Ministries to support each other. We were also able to share of Education and contextualised in several countries successful practices with the community.” (Sudan, Iran, UAE, Egypt), covers three main topics: Safe School Operation (understanding COVID-19, classrooms protocols, reporting and referral mechanisms), Well-being The number of teachers reached with other forms of and Protection (well-being and school, teacher well-being, professional development has been limited due to financial learner well-being) and Back to Learning (managing lost and logistical constraints. However, some best practices are school learning, implementing hybrid learning strategies, emerging at the country level, including in Jordan, where building a supportive learning environment). The package the MoE, with support from UNICEF, has developed a speaks directly to the teachers and can be adapted to framework for an online teacher professional development their context and completed at their own pace. It includes course covering three units, including Unit 1: Effective face- quizzes, self-evaluation and planning tools to encourage to-face teaching practices; Unit 2: Effective remote teaching ongoing reflection, exploration and learning. The online practices; and Unit 3: Effective hybrid teaching. version of the package includes a module on inclusion, to be delivered to teachers, both online and offline. Thirty-three per cent of countries in MENA provided teachers with instructions on remote teaching and In Sudan, for example, a training of trainers was conducted, learning, as well as with content adapted for remote selected teachers were introduced to the package and teaching and learning, such as open educational resources printed copies were distributed, to enable teachers and sample lesson plans (see Figure 11). 59 International Task Force on Teachers for Education 2030, Futures of Teaching – Conversation between teachers and experts from the Arab States. 60 International Task Force on Teachers for Education 2030, Teaching on the front line. 61 UNICEF MENA Regional Office (2020). Ready to Come Back: Teacher Preparedness Training Package. 31 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Figure 11. Mitigation measures targeting teachers for continued learning in MENA, July-October 2020 100% 90% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 80% 70% 60% 29% 33% 33% 50% 57% 57% 57% 52% 67% 40% 30% 20% 10% 38% 33% 33% 10% 10% 10% 14% 0% O ered special Provided with Provided with Provided with Provided No additional Do not know Other training instruction professional, teaching content with support was on distance psychosocial adapted to remote ICT tools offered to teachers instruction and emotional teaching and free support (e.g. OERs, connectivity sample lesson plans etc..) Yes No No information Source: UNESCO-UNICEF-World Bank Survey on National Education Responses to COVID-19 School Closures (2020). 3.4 Effectiveness: government perceptions MoE officials in MENA responding to the UNESCO/UNICEF/ effective’, except for take-home packages, which were WB joint survey (Round 2)62 reported that online platforms reported to be ‘not effective’ in some cases (29 per cent). and televised-based learning are perceived to be the most effective modes of delivery of remote learning (see Figure Radio was reported to be perceived as ‘not effective’ in two 12). High-Income Countries (Qatar and Saudi Arabia), though this could be correlated to the prevalence of its use across Among CAC with ongoing humanitarian crises, including income groups. Countries with ongoing humanitarian Syria, Yemen and Libya, learning via both online platforms crises reported radio as either ‘very effective’ (50 per cent) and the television were perceived to be ‘very effective’ (100 or ‘fairly effective’ (50 per cent). per cent), as depicted in Figure 13. Take-home packages were reported to be perceived as ‘fairly effective’ by 100 However, for a more holistic picture of the effectiveness per cent of reporting countries with ongoing humanitarian of these responses, data on student engagement and crises, mainly driven by safety considerations and limited performance (especially changes in performance), as well access to connectivity and other ICT devices. Among as the perspectives of students and teachers, are required. Middle Income Countries, most learning modes were either reported to be perceived as ‘very effective’ or ‘fairly 62 UNESCO/UNICEF/World Bank (2020): What Have We Learnt? Overview of Findings from a Survey of Ministries of Education on National Responses to COVID-19. 32 Chapter 3 • Responses to Date: Strategies to Enable Learning during the COVID-19 Pandemic Figure 12. Number of countries by perceived effectiveness of remote learning in MENA, July-October 2020 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 Online platforms Television Radio Take-home Any other distance learing modality Very E ective Fairly E ective Not E ective Source: UNESCO-UNICEF-World Bank Survey on National Education Responses to COVID-19 School Closures (2020) and UNICEF Country offices (2020). Figure 13. Perceived effectiveness of remote learning, by modality and typology in MENA July-October 2020 33% 38% 40% 50% 50% 67% 67% 71% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 67% 63% 60% 50% 50% 33% 33% 29% Other modality Other modality Other modality Online Online Online Take-home Take-home Take-home Television Television Television Radio Radio Radio HIC MIC CAC Not E ective Fairly E ective Very E ective HIC: High Income Country MIC: Middle Income Country CAC: Conflict Affected Countries Sources: UNESCO-UNICEF-World Bank Survey on National Education Responses to COVID-19 School Closures (2020) and UNICEF Country offices reporting on MoE officials’ responses (2020). Note: Figures are estimated using simple averages across countries. 33 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa 34 Chapter 4 • The potential impact of COVID-19 on schooling and learning CHAPTER 4 The potential impact of COVID-19 on schooling and learning 35 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa 4. The potential impact of COVID-19 on schooling and learning 4.1 Background publication uses updated economic projection data based on the Global Economic Prospects June 2020 data. COVID-19 related school closures are taking countries off track from achieving their schooling learning goals. The report focuses on four key outcomes of the simulation When children are unable to attend school, they lose the model to contextualise learning loss impacts: opportunity to acquire new knowledge and skills and may forget what they learned in the past, resulting in lower Ò Learning poverty67, average learning levels for countries and eventually in Ò Learning-adjusted years of schooling68, disengagement and dropout. Unremediated learning losses Ò Percent below minimum proficiency on PISA69, may compound over time if children continue to fall further Ò Lifetime earnings. behind in the curriculum63. Simultaneously, the economic shock of the crisis and its impact on income, employment, The simulation results can help Ministries of Education, key and government budgets, can affect learning outcomes national stakeholders, and development partners advocate and future earning capacity for millions of students. for and plan evidence-based recovery strategies to mitigate potential learning losses arising from COVID-19 school In 2020, the WB released COVID-19 simulations modelling closures, while continuing to combat the learning poverty the potential impact of school closures on a number of that existed before the crisis. It is important to keep in mind learning outcomes, including learning poverty64, LAYS, that these results are simulations, and that they do not use percentage of students below the minimum proficiency actual data on learning losses or mitigation effectiveness, on PISA, as well as impacts on earnings65. Building on this which is limited at present, particularly for MENA countries. work, this section focuses on simulations from the MENA In the absence of such empirical evidence, the simulations region and reflects significant updates to the simulation can guide policymakers, educators and researchers towards model published in 2020. The world is now approaching two addressing and analysing potential learning loss impacts. school years of the crisis, and this report contains country- specific data66 on the length of school closures, based on 4.2 Methodology information from the WB and UNICEF Country Teams and the UNESCO School Closures Tracker, all of which are used The analysis simulates the impact of COVID-19 school to inform school closure projections. The report combines a closures and mitigation effectiveness under three scenarios: variety of sources of data to cover school closure information optimistic, intermediate, and pessimistic70. These three over a longer time period, with the WB and UNICEF data scenarios vary primarily according to the duration of school covering from January 2020 to February 2021, and the closures and the effectiveness of mitigation measures and UNESCO data covering from March 2021 to July 2021. This are based on the following assumptions: 63 Kaffenberger, M. 2020. Modeling the Long-Run Learning Impact of the Covid-19 Learning Shock: Actions to (More Than) Mitigate Loss. RISE Insight Series. 2020/017. https://doi.org/10.35489/BSG-RISE-RI_2020/01. 64 Azevedo, J. P. (2020). Learning Poverty: Measures and Simulations. Policy Research Working Papers 9446. The World Bank. doi:10.1596/1813- 9450-9446. 65 Azevedo, J. P., Hasan, A., Goldenberg, D., Geven, K. and Iqbal, S. A. (2021). “Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates.” The World Bank Research Observer 36 (1): 1–40. doi:10.1093/wbro/lkab003. 66 Note that only baseline school closure data is country specific. Other input parameters into the simulations model, such as mitigation effectiveness and learning gains per year, are not country-specific but based on country income groupings. 67 Learning poverty is defined as the inability to read and understand a simple text by age 10. More information about the learning poverty measure can be found https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/education/brief/what-is-learning-poverty. 68 The World Bank’s Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS) concept combines quantity (access) and quality (learning outcomes) of schooling into a single easy-to-understand metric of progress. More information about the LAYS measure can be found here. 69 Share of children performing below the minimum proficiency (PISA Level 2 or 407.47 points). 70 It is important to exercise caution when interpreting the country-level results of the simulations as some of the differences across scenarios are small, and potentially not statistically significant. 36 Chapter 4 • The potential impact of COVID-19 on schooling and learning Ò Optimistic: Observed country-level school Ò Pessimistic: Observed country-level school closures. The effectiveness of government-initiated closures. Mitigation measures have a low level mitigation measures (such as remote learning) is of effectiveness, partial closures are assumed high71. Partial closures are assumed to affect 50% of negligible and are treated as a full closure. the student population. Ò Intermediate: Observed country-level school Table 1 describes the key input parameters on school closures. Mitigation measures have a middle level of closures, mitigation effectiveness, and school productivity effectiveness72. Partial closures are assumed to affect used in the model to simulate the learning and earning 75% of the student population. outcomes under different scenarios. Table 1. Parameters for MENA learning loss simulations MENA: MENA: MENA: MENA: MENA: Overall High Upper Lower Low Income Middle Middle Income Income Income A. Learning gains or school productivity (in HLO points/year)73 37.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 B. Actual school closure to date (months) 6.5 6.8 7.29 5.2 7.5 Optimistic Scenario C1. Share of the system affected over observed period (18 months) 45.5% 49.4% 64.8% 47.2% 57.0% E1. Mitigation effectiveness (0 to 100%) 38.5% 60.0% 40.0% 28.0% 14.0% F1. HLO decrease (points) = C1 (A* (Total School Weeks/43.3)*(1-E1) 15.3 12.3 21.0 12.9 12.8 Intermediate Scenario C2. Share of the system affected over observed period (18 months) 59.6% 54.9% 69.0% 50.8% 67.6% E2. Mitigation effectiveness (0 to 100%) 19.7% 30.0% 20.0% 14.0% 10.0% F2. HLO decrease (points) = C2* (A*Total School Weeks /43.3)*(1-E2) 11.8 14.9 14.4 8.4 8.5 Pessimistic Scenario C3. Share of the system affected over observed period (18 months) 67.3% 63.2% 75.2% 56.3% 83.5% E3. Mitigation effectiveness (0 to 100%) 9.9% 15% 10% 7% 5% F3. HLO decrease (points) = C3* (A*(Total School Weeks /43.3)*(1-E1) 28.3 31.3 35.9 20.1 21.4 Macro Poverty Outlook (GDP % Points) [g] -0.07 -0.06 -0.09 -0.04 -0.06 Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 5 countries: Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Libya. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 6 countries: Algeria, Djibouti, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Palestine/Palestinian territories. “MENA: Low Income” includes 3 countries: Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. The classifications are based on World Bank income groupings. Regional and sub-regional estimates are simple averages, and not population weighted. HLO refers to the World Bank’s Harmonized Learning Outcomes measure based on linking results from international student achievement testing programs and putting them on a comparable scale. Note that all the low income countries, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, and Yemen, and one lower middle income country, Palestine/Palestinian territories, and two upper middle income countries, Lebanon and Libya, are classified as fragile- and conflict-affected situations by the World Bank (World Bank 2021). For Iraq, we do not have regionally disaggregated data for all the required input parameters of the simulations. In the HLO decrease formula, 43.3 represents the approximate number of weeks in one school year. 71 Mitigation effectiveness is measured on a scale between 0 – 100%, and brings together three elements: government supply of alternative education modalities, ability of households to access these alternative modalities, and effectiveness of alternative modalities. Mitigation effectiveness varies across scenarios based on the income level of the country. In no case do we expect the mitigation to fully compensate for school closures and accompanying learning losses. See Figure A1 (Annex 4) for further details on input parameters of the simulation model. 72 Note that the share of the school system closed is a function of both spatial and temporal aspects. Spatially, we have information about whether schools were fully or partially closed in each week, and partial closures can be by geographic location or by certain grades. Temporally, we have information on closures spanning the calendar from January 2020-July 2021. 73 The World Bank’s Harmonized Learning Outcome (HLO) puts learning data from international and regional assessments on a comparable scale. The data can be accessed https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/harmonized-learning-outcomes-hlo-database. 37 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa As discussed in Section I, the governments’ supply of 4.3 Simulation results remote learning, student access to or take-up of remote learning, and its effectiveness are likely to have varied within i. Result 1: learning poverty and across MENA countries. Figure A1 in Annex 4 shows how government supply, take-up, and effectiveness of remote learning jointly inform mitigation effectiveness of Learning poverty in the MENA region alternative learning modalities in the simulations. Across could increase by 9.4 percentage scenarios, higher mitigation effectiveness for higher income countries, reflecting both greater supply of and household points due to COVID-19 access to technology - such as computers, internet, and mobile phones - and higher expected effectiveness of the Learning poverty is defined as the inability to read and remote learning interventions are anticipated74 . understand a simple text by age ten. This indicator depicts the share of primary-aged children who are not in On the other hand, lower mitigation effectiveness for school (schooling deprived) or are below the minimum lower income countries are anticipated. This is due to the proficiency level in reading (learning deprived). By limited supply of remote learning interventions offered combining schooling and learning, the indicator highlights by these governments, lack of household access to the the importance of both “more access to schooling”, as technological infrastructure required to access remote well as “better learning”, which is critical to ensuring that education, along with the relatively lower effectiveness of schooling leads to acquisition of skills and capabilities75. remote learning interventions (for example, using low-tech Even before COVID-19, more than half of the children in asynchronous modalities such as radio or television that MENA were unable to read and understand a simple text by may constrain opportunities for interaction or feedback), age ten. The pre-COVID learning poverty estimate in MENA which may limit the governments’ ability to mitigate the (used as a baseline for the simulation analysis) suggests that negative impacts of school closures. Figure A1 in Annex 59.9 per cent of children were either out-of-school or not 4 explains the key input parameters and outcomes in the able to read and understand a simple text by age ten. simulation model. Figure 14. Learning poverty: pre-COVID baseline and three simulation scenarios 100.0 +2.8 +2.1 90.0 +1.6 80.0 +6.7 Learning Poverty (%) 70.0 +9.4 +5.5 +6.8 +4.3 60.0 +4.5 50.0 +13.9 +15.2 +8.1 +10.6 40.0 +4.4 +6.5 30.0 20.0 10.0 59.9 38.8 38.3 68.4 94.7 0.0 MENA: Overall MENA: MENA: Upper MENA: Lower MENA: High income Middle income middle income Low income Baseline Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 2 countries: Iran and Jordan. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 3 countries: Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. “MENA: Low Income” includes 1 country: Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are population weighted based on population figures for 10-14 year olds for 2017. We use the July 2021 learning poverty data which can be accessed on Development Data Hub, and replication code can be found on GitHub. We follow UNICEF’s classification of MENA countries. The reference window for aggregate calculation is centered on 2015, as described in Azevedo et al. (2021). 74 We make assumptions on availability, take-up, and effectiveness of remote learning, which are based on the limited literature on remote learning effectiveness and household information on access to alternative learning modalities such as television and internet using PISA, DHS, and MICS data. In addition, we also make assumptions regarding the expected learning observed in a school year, and they rely on the literature on school productivity, unexpected school closures, and summer learning loss. For more information about these assumptions, see Azevedo et al. (2021). 75 The World Bank (April 2021). What is Learning Poverty? 38 Chapter 4 • The potential impact of COVID-19 on schooling and learning Table 2. Learning poverty gap: pre-COVID baseline and three simulation scenarios Baseline Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic MENA: 22.2% 23.5% 24.4% 25.2% Overall MENA: 9.4% 10.7% 11.1% 12.5% High Income MENA: Upper Middle 9.8% 10.5% 12.1% 13.2% Income MENA: Lower Middle 22.9% 24.5% 25.2% 25.7% Income MENA: Low Income 58.3% 60.1% 60.7% 61.7% Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 2 countries: Iran and Jordan. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 3 countries: Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. “MENA: Low © UNICEF/Aldroubi Income” includes 1 country: Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are population weighted based on population figures for 10-14 year olds for The simulations suggest that COVID-19 related school 2017. We use the July 2021 learning poverty data which can be accessed closures are likely to create a substantial setback to the on Development Data Hub, and replication code can be found on GitHub. global goal of halving learning poverty by 2030. In a We follow UNICEF’s classification of MENA countries. The reference pessimistic scenario of prolonged school closures and low window for aggregate calculation is centered on 2015, as described in Azevedo et al. (2021). mitigation effectiveness, learning poverty may increase from its baseline level of 59.9 per cent to 69.3 per cent for the MENA region, representing an increase of 9.4 The learning poverty estimates depicted in Figure 14 treat percentage points. In the intermediate scenario, learning all students below the minimum proficiency threshold as poverty may rise to 66.7 per cent. being equally learning deprived, even though countries with similar learning poverty rates could have different learning Most of this increase in learning poverty is expected to levels among those who are learning poor. The learning occur in high income countries. Thus, countries with poverty rate also does not capture improvements in learning the highest levels of learning poverty before COVID-19 that occur below the minimum proficiency threshold. For (predominantly low-income countries) might have the example, these could include foundational subskills such as smallest absolute and relative increases in learning poverty, hearing and making sounds of words, mapping sounds to reflecting how serious the learning crisis was in those letters, etc., which are critical to develop the foundational countries even before the pandemic. reading skills needed to meet the minimum proficiency threshold. The learning poverty measure reflects only the change in the population of students who are learning poor, and To measure these aspects, the learning poverty gap brings does not share insights about changes in learning among together the concepts of the learning deprivation gap, those who were already below the minimum proficiency which indicates the average effort needed to bring children level by the end of primary school. This implies that most in school above minimum proficiency, and schooling of the learning losses in low-income countries impact deprivation, which highlights the need to improve access students who were already failing to achieve the minimum to schooling among those who are out of school. reading proficiency level by the end of primary; that is, those who were already learning-poor. Therefore, though For example, as shown in Figure 15 below, while both the increase in learning poverty may not be large, children Oman and Saudi Arabia are expected to have similar already below minimum proficiency may fall further increases in learning poverty under a pessimistic scenario, behind. This phenomenon is examined by learning poverty both countries have different expected changes in the gap and severity simulations in Table 2. learning poverty gap, implying that on average, very 39 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa different effort, resources, and a policy focus on children Figure 15. Relationship between changes in at the bottom or out of school may be required to tackle learning poverty and learning poverty gap learning poverty. 17 Based on the results of the simulation, under the intermediate scenario the learning poverty gap will rise BHR 12 from 22.2 per cent to 24.4 per cent for the MENA region. Under the pessimistic scenario, the gap will grow from 22.2 10 per cent to 25.2 per cent. Change in Learning Poverty Gap (%) IRN KWT Table 3. Learning Poverty Severity: Pre-COVID 8 TUN MAR SAU baseline and three simulation scenarios 6 Baseline Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic QAT JOR 4 MENA: YEM DZA 13.1% 13.8% 14.0% 14.6% ARE OMN Overall EGY 2 MENA: High 4.6% 5.0% 5.1% 5.6% 0 Income 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Change in Learning Poverty (%) MENA: MENA: Low Income MENA: Lower Middle Income Upper MENA: Upper Middle Income MENA: High Income 4.5% 4.8% 5.2% 5.8% Middle Income Figure 16. Relationship between changes in MENA: learning poverty gap and learning poverty severity Lower 12.0% 12.7% 12.9% 13.3% 2.5 Middle MAR Income MENA: 2.0 Change in Learning Poverty Severity (%) Low 44.2% 45.6% 45.8% 46.9% YEM EGY Income KWT 1.5 Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 2 countries: Iran and Jordan. “MENA: Lower Middle BHR 1.0 Income” includes 3 countries: Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. “MENA: Low DJI Income” includes 1 country: Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the IRN SAU DZA countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are JOR population weighted based on population figures for 10-14 year olds for 0.5 ARE QAT OMN 2017. We use the July 2021 learning poverty data which can be accessed on Development Data Hub, and replication code can be found on GitHub. We follow UNICEF’s classification of MENA countries. The reference 0.0 window for aggregate calculation is centered on 2015, as described in 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Azevedo et al. (2021). Change in Learning Poverty Gap (%) MENA: Low Income MENA: Lower Middle Income MENA: Upper Middle Income MENA: High Income Note: The above two figures are prepared by the authors for this publication. The percent change reflects change in values from baseline to pessimistic scenarios. 40 Chapter 4 • The potential impact of COVID-19 on schooling and learning Halfpoint/Shutterstock.com While the gap measure shows how far students are of learning needs among children below minimum behind the minimum proficiency level on average, it is not proficiency and on providing flexible and tailored learning distribution-sensitive, and cannot distinguish between opportunities, or bringing schooling deprived children into changes in the learning gap driven by students near the school. As school systems reopen, it will be critical to meet minimum proficiency threshold and that driven by those at students at their point of need and monitor changes in the very bottom of the learning distribution. Students who the learning distribution among the learning poor; for that, are further away from the minimum proficiency threshold learning poverty severity is the appropriate measure. likely have different learning needs than those closer to the threshold. Based on the simulation results, learning poverty severity will rise from 13.1 per cent to 14.0 per cent under the Learning poverty severity indicates inequality of intermediate scenario, and to 14.6 per cent under the learning among those below the threshold. It brings pessimistic scenario in the MENA region (Table 2.2). The together the concepts of learning deprivation severity, which increase in learning poverty severity is highest in low- gives an indication of the inequality in learning among the income countries, though there is increased learning learning deprived children already in school, and schooling inequality among the learning poor across the region. deprivation, which highlights the effort needed to increase Tackling this will require a focus on differentiated learning access to schooling among those who are schooling interventions for children at the bottom, for example, deprived. Compared to the gap measure, the severity through techniques such as Teaching at the Right Level, measure is more sensitive to changes in learning levels of based on the learning level of the child. learning deprived children who are further away from the minimum proficiency threshold, as well as to changes in Policies to reduce learning poverty could differ across learning deprived children who are out of school. countries depending on the levels of learning poverty gap and severity. Depending on the country’s gap and severity For example, as shown in Figure 16, Morocco and Jordan estimates, effectively mitigating learning losses may require are expected to have similar increases in the learning different levels of resources and effort targeted at children poverty gap under a pessmistic scenario, but both at the bottom (as captured by learning poverty gap) or countries have different expected changes in learning a differentiated focus on addressing learning inequality poverty severity. This implies that both countries may need among children at the bottom, through tailored learning different levels of focus on policies identifying the diversity opportunities (as captured by learning poverty severity). 41 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Box 5. Gender gaps in learning poverty In all MENA countries with a learning poverty estimate, a measure of the ability to read and understand a simple text by age ten, females have lower learning poverty than males. The learning poverty indicator combines the share of primary-aged children out of school who are schooling deprived, and the share of pupils below a minimum proficiency in reading, who are learning deprived. However, these results might hide important differences in terms of gender differences on learning and schooling. Figure 17 below shows the female-male ratio on these two key sub-components of learning poverty, with learning deprivation on the X axis and schooling deprivation on the Y axis. © UNICEF/Aldroubi Figure 17. Gender gaps in schooling and learning deprivation 2.5 YEM 2 Schooling Deprivation (Female-Male Ratio) ARE Looking at schooling deprivation for MENA countries with learning poverty estimates, the picture is mixed, 1.5( with some MENA countries with gender gaps in favour of QAT boys and vice versa in other countries. In five countries 1 IRN MAR (Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, and Oman), males have OMN TUN higher schooling deprivation than females, while in one country (Iran), schooling deprivation for males and 0.5 JOR EGY females is roughly similar. However, in five countries BHR KWT (Algeria, Morocco, Qatar, UAE, and Yemen), females have 0 higher schooling deprivation than males, as displayed 0 0.5 1 1.5 Learning Deprivation (Female-Male Ratio) 2 2.5 in Table A1.2. In fact, some of the largest gender gaps in enrolment, in terms of magnitude, exist in these Two key insights emerge from Figure 17 above: countries, particularly Yemen, Algeria, and the UAE. In all countries in the MENA region for which we have learning and schooling data, girls actually have lower Data shows that there is still unresolved business on learning deprivation than boys. This means that once the agenda of improving girls’ access to schooling, in school, girls tend to do better than boys. Looking at particularly in certain countries. However, note that gender gaps among children who are learning deprived some of the pro-male inequities in schooling deprivation paints a similar picture. For example, looking at the are more than compensated for by the pro-female learning deprivation gap, which measures the average learning deprivation outcomes across countries, as distance of a learning deprived child from the minimum evidenced by the fact that girls have lower overall proficiency level and indicates the average increase in learning poverty in all MENA countries. However, the learning required to eliminate learning poverty, girls key message is this: reducing learning poverty in the are doing better than boys in all MENA countries. In MENA region will require more than a focus on “closing terms of learning deprivation severity, which captures gender gaps” as evidenced by the high learning poverty the inequality of learning among the learning poor rates for both boys and girls in many MENA countries; it population, girls are again doing better than boys in all will require examining how to improve schooling and MENA countries, as shown in Table A2 in the Annex. learning outcomes for both boys and girls. Note: Figure 17 is prepared by the authors for this publication. See Table A1 in the Annex for gender-disaggregated data on learning poverty, learning deprivation, and schooling deprivation for MENA countries. 42 Chapter 4 • The potential impact of COVID-19 on schooling and learning ii. Result 2: COVID-19 could reduce the average learning adjusted years learning adjusted years of schooling of schooling that students achieve during their lifetime from 7.3 to 6.1, representing a reduction of 1.0 year. In the intermediate scenario, LAYS is likely to reduce to 6.4 (see Children in the MENA region stand Figure 18 below). to lose one full learning-adjusted year Across the MENA region, the extent of this loss will vary. In of schooling due to COVID-19 low-income countries where children were expected to complete 4.2 LAYS prior to the pandemic, the simulations The WB’s LAYS concept combines quantity (access) and suggest that COVID-19 could lower LAYS from 3.8 in the quality (learning outcomes) of schooling into a single optimistic scenario, to 3.6 in the pessimistic scenario. At easy-to-understand metric of progress76. The WB’s Human the other end of the spectrum, children in high-income Capital Index defines a complete quality education as 14 countries were expected to complete 8.6 LAYS prior to learning-adjusted years of schooling, which serves as a COVID-19, and the simulations suggest that the impact benchmark for comparing performance77. of the pandemic could lower LAYS to 8.2 in the optimistic scenario and 7.6 in the pessimistic scenario. The decrease In the MENA region, the average baseline LAYS pre- in LAYS is relatively higher for high-income countries as COVID were 7.1. This means that on average, children in low-income countries already have lower LAYS on average, MENA only achieved 7.1 years of quality education. The highlighting the severity of the learning crisis in these simulation results suggest that in the pessimistic scenario countries even before COVID-19. of low mitigation effectiveness, school closures due to Figure 18. Learning-adjusted years of schooling: pre-COVID baseline and three simulation scenarios MENA: Upper MENA: Lower MENA: MENA: Overall MENA: High Income Middle Income Middle Income Low Income 10.0 7.1 8.6 6.7 6.3 4.2 Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS) 9.0 -0.4 8.0 7.0 -0.5 6.0 -0.7 -0.5 5.0 4.0 -0.4 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -1.1 -1.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” Baseline includes 4 countries: Iran, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. Optimistic “MENA: Lower Intermediate Middle Income” Pessimistic includes 5 countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Palestine/ Palestinian territories. “MENA: Low Income” includes 2 countries: Sudan and Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are simple averages, and not population weighted. LAYS are similar between upper middle income and lower middle income countries, however, Iraq’s baseline LAYS is 4.0, which brings down the average for upper middle income countries. For Iraq, we do not have regionally disaggregated data for LAYS. 76 Filmer, D., Rogers, H., Angrist, N. and Sabarwal, S. Forthcoming. Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS): Defining a New Macro Measure of Education. Economics of Education Review. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2020.101971. 77 While both LAYS and learning poverty combine schooling and learning, LAYS encompasses all levels of basic education, capturing the educational life of students from 4 to 17 years of age and represents the learning levels achieved by a schooling system of an entire country. Learning poverty focuses on primary-aged children by combining learning deprivation (share of children at the end of primary below minimum proficiency) and schooling deprivation (share of primary-aged children who are out-of-school) into one multi-dimensional indicator. 43 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa iii. Result 3: minimum proficiency in PISA Table 4. Percentage below minimum proficiency in PISA: pre-COVID baseline and three simulation scenarios COVID-19 is likely to increase Baseline Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic the percent of children below minimum MENA: proficiency in PISA Overall 60.1% 66.2% 68.8% 71.6% MENA: OECD’s PISA measures learning outcomes of 15-year-olds in High 49.0% 52.9% 56.0% 60.5% reading, maths, science, and other skills, such as collective Income problem solving. Unlike the learning poverty analysis which focuses on outcomes at the primary level, the analysis of MENA: education proficiency based on PISA focuses on student Upper 62.1% 69.1% 71.3% 72.9% achievement for 15-year-olds, who tend to be at lower Middle secondary level. Focusing on reading proficiency scores, Income we simulate how the share of children performing below the minimum proficiency (PISA Level 2 or 407.47 points)78 MENA: could potentially change due to school closures and Lower 73.0% 81.8% 84.2% 86.3% mitigation effectiveness of remote learning. Middle Income Across the MENA region, the percentage of 15-year- MENA: olds below minimum proficiency is likely to rise. Low NA NA NA NA The percentage of 15-year-old children scoring below Income minimum proficiency could rise from 60 per cent to 71.6 Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 3 countries: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and per cent in the pessimistic scenario, and to 68.0 per cent United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 2 countries: in intermediate scenario (see Table 3 below). These results Jordan and Lebanon. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 3 countries: imply a rise in the share of students who are not able to Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. “MENA: Low Income” includes no countries, as denoted by “NA”. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed identify the main idea in a text of moderate length, find previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are simple averages, and information based on explicit though sometimes complex not population weighted. criteria, and reflect on the purpose and form of texts when explicitly directed to do so (PISA’s definition of a minimum level of proficiency). The impact is lower in lower-middle income MENA countries where the share of students below minimum proficiency was already high at 73.0 per cent at baseline and is projected to increase by 11.2 per cent points to 84.2 per cent under the intermediate simulation scenario. Upper-middle income MENA countries could experience a similar increase in the share of students below minimum proficiency (9.2 per cent points) from 62.1 per cent to 71.4 per cent in the intermediate scenario. As mentioned in learning poverty results, the greater increase could be explained by the fact that upper-middle income countries are starting from a baseline of a lower percentage of students at or below the minimum threshold. 78 Minimum reading proficiency is a score below level 2, which is 407.47 points, as defined by UIS in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 4.1.1. 79 Past evidence from Kuwait suggests that as a result of the Gulf War men on average earned 5.6 percent less for each year of schooling lost (Bilo et al. 2021). 44 Chapter 4 • The potential impact of COVID-19 on schooling and learning iv. Result 4: lifetime earnings of decreased learning adjusted years of school. In the intermediate scenario, the loss is projected to be US$0.6 Losses to lifetime earnings of close trillion (see Figure 19). For a single individual in MENA, to US$0.8 trillion are expected due to these projected losses translate to close to US$15,000 loss in lifetime earnings based on the optimistic scenario, COVID-19 learning losses in MENA increasing to almost US$24,000 and almost US$33,000 per individual in the intermediate and pessimistic scenarios Loss of learning (as measured through learning- respectively (see Table A8). adjusted years of schooling) can have a negative impact on lifetime earnings, based on existing evidence As shown in Figure 19, low-income countries are projected on return to schooling, life expectancy, whether people to experience relatively smaller earning losses compared are able to utilise their human capital through paid with high-income countries, primarily because their employment, and labour market earnings79. Under earning levels (and learning-adjusted years of schooling) a pessimistic scenario, the simulations project that are already low. However, this does not diminish the approximately US$0.8 trillion of aggregated lifetime seriousness of the setback they potentially face: low- earnings (at present value in 2017 purchasing power parity) income countries, with already lower levels of earnings could be lost for the current cohort of learners because and learning outcomes, cannot afford further worsening prospects for future generations. Figure 19. Aggregate economic cost of foregone lifetime earnings at present value (PV) (US$ trillions) MENA: Upper MENA: Lower MENA: MENA: Overall MENA: High Income Middle Income Middle Income Low Income 0.00T 0.00 T Loss of Economy of Lifetime earnings -0.38 T -0.15 T -0.14 T -0.10 T 0.00 T -0.10T -0.03 T -0.20T -0.06 T -0.06 T -0.30T -0.12 T -0.40T -0.25 T -0.50T -0.60T -0.44 T -0.23 T -0.70T -0.80T -0.44 T -0.90T Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 4 countries: Iran, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 5 countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Palestine/ Palestinian territories. “MENA: Low Income” includes 2 countries: Sudan and Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are simple sums in trillions of US dollars. Sub-region aggregates are sums of values for each country in the sub-region, and the MENA total is the sum of aggregates for each sub-region. Regional and sub-regional estimates are not population weighted. Results are obtained using the expected returns to education of each country and labor market earnings from ILO (2020) and World Bank (2020), as well as the results from the LAYS simulation. We use the economic forecasts from the Global Economic Prospects June 2021 publication. Results are conditional on the country’s life expectancy, expected work life of a typical adult as well as their human capital utilization, and assume that none of these aspects will be affected by the COVID-19 crisis. The results also assume that the returns to education remain constant at 8% in the long run. See Azevedo et al. (2020) for further details about the methodology. For Iraq, we do not have regionally disaggregated data for LAYS. 45 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa 46 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all CHAPTER 5 ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all 47 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa 5. ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all It’s not enough for schools to simply reopen their doors. Students will need tailored and sustained support to help them readjust and catch up after the pandemic. We must help schools prepare that support and meet the enormous challenges of the months ahead. UNESCO/World Bank/UNICEF Mission: Recovering Education in 202180 It was clear in 2020, when the pandemic was still far i. Access to learning from over, that its impact on schooling and learning was significant, yet it was still too early to assess the effects in The response to the pandemic highlighted the MENA region and generate evidence on how learning was progressing. Understanding and quantifying the the importance of strengthening different learning losses caused by the pandemic is crucial, as is identifying what will drive improvements in learning. modalities to ensure all learners have Based on the data on school closure, responses so access to both learning and services far and projected learning loss (from the simulation to support their wellbeing model) included in the report, this section outlines the lessons learned and provides policy recommendations MENA governments turned to remote learning and other for remediation of lost learning and building equitable, alternatives to facilitate learning continuity, mitigate effective and resilient learning systems81 in MENA. The the COVID-19 impact and recover the learning losses. recommendations are also aligned with the Framework However, 40 per cent (37 million) were not reached, for for Reopening Schools82 developed jointly by UNESCO, reasons including low internet penetration (in nine of the UNICEF, the World Bank, and WFP, as well as the ongoing 20 countries) and learners living in low-resource or remote commitments to SDG 483 settings or refugee camps. There was also very limited and the Education 2030 agenda84. access to learning for pre-primary children. Lack of access to other services such as school meals and psycho-social 5.1 Lessons learned support has also impacted learners’ wellbeing. The key lessons learned from the preceding analysis of Data collection and monitoring system is not well school closures, responses so far to enabling learning, and established to track learners’ learning status and inform simulations of the possible future impact of COVID-19 on policy-making. learning and earning in MENA, are: 80 UNESCO, World Bank, UNICEF (May 2021). Mission: Recovering Education in 2021. 81 OECD (2020). A framework to guide an education response to the COVID-19 Pandemic of 2020 82 UNESCO, UNICEF, World Bank, WFP (April 2020). Framework for reopening schools 83 https://sdg4education2030.org/the-goal 84 UNESCO (2016). Education 2030 framework for action. 48 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all Due to limitations in data systems, most MENA countries lack accurate and objective data on learning, how children Box 6. Refugee children face challenges and youth were able to access and engage in remote in accessing remote learning learning activities on offer, or on effectiveness of what was being offered - in terms of the learning modality, learning ‘2020 was an exceptional year,’ observed Mervat content, and teachers’ instructions. This lack of data limits Sweidan, a Palestinian refugee living in Beddawi the development of strategies and concrete plans to refugee camp in northern Lebanon with her two ensure equitable access to learning opportunities and young girls. ‘Lebanon went into lockdown and our services, including for the most vulnerable. lives were upended. As adults this was difficult, but for our kids the disruption was severe.’ Pre-existing learning disparities are growing Lebanon was experiencing economic and political turmoil well before the outbreak of COVID-19. Students are affected by the pandemic However, the nationwide lockdown, movement disproportionately85, with significant variations in access restrictions and closure of schools in early 2020 to and ability to engage in remote learning, support affected refugee children more than any previous received from parents and caregivers and quality of measure. Children’s daily rhythms were disrupted and teaching. Learners from vulnerable and disadvantaged social interaction with other children became more backgrounds – including refugees (as described in Box 6), difficult as play shifted from the safe confines of the internally displaced people, girls, people with disabilities school playground to the dimly-lit alleyways of the and minority groups – are falling further behind during refugee camps. the pandemic and have a higher risk of dropping out86. School drop-out is expected to increase, especially among Accustomed to frequent internet blackouts and low adolescents, due to increased child labour and early bandwidth, many refugee families struggled initially. marriage associated with the deteriorating economic How could they help their children focus in a crowded situation87 88 89. environment with lots of distractions and little privacy? Who should receive the family’s single phone to follow classes and for how long? ‘At the beginning, we found online education very difficult,’ Mervat recalled. ‘However, we received guidance and support from UNRWA teachers and counsellors who are engaging with our children, sending them learning materials, responding to their questions and sharing feedback. Now we are more adapted to the situation.’ Lebanon Field Office reports that UNRWA is supporting Mervat and other refugee parents with online information about COVID-19 risks and by offering tips on how to stay safe. The Agency offers online psychosocial support to help refugee families manage stress, fear and anxiety and has rolled out a tablet-for- loan programme to help improve families’ access to online learning. Source: UNRWA: Remote learning in Lebanon for a Palestine © UNICEF/Al-Safad refugee90 85 UNESCO (March 2021). One year into COVID-19 education disruption: Where do we stand? 86 McKinsey & Company (December 2020). COVID-19 and learning loss - disparities grow and students need help. 87 ILO, UNICEF (2020). COVID-19 and child labour: A time of crisis, a time to act. 88 Save the children (2021). Lebanon education in crisis: raising the alarm. 89 UNFPA, UNICEF (2021). Child marriage in the context of COVID-19: Analyses of trends, programming and alternative approaches in MENA. 90 UNRWA (2020). COVID-19 response summary August-December 2020. 49 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa ii. Engaged learners themselves are still limited when reflecting on the education effectiveness. More reliable and regular data on learning outcomes and data on learner, teacher and parent/caregiver Teachers and parents need support perspectives are needed for a clearer understanding of to cope with the challenges created effectiveness and how to build back better. by the disruption of face-to-face learning iii. Enabling environment and shift towards digital and other Comprehensive data are required modes of remote learning to plan and monitor responses and The disruption to face-to-face learning highlighted the develop mitigation and recovery importance of supporting teachers in adapting both content and strategies to enable remote and hybrid strategies for learning learning. Though governments and development partners offered support, including instructions on remote learning, Though the findings regarding government perceptions of resources and lesson plans, very few countries prioritised the effectiveness of COVID-19-related learning responses supporting teachers psychosocially and emotionally, and are useful up to a point, strong data systems including approximately half of the countries reported not giving systematic tracking of learning outcomes for all learners in any support based on 2020 surveys91. Only four in ten of MENA are urgently needed to plan and monitor ongoing countries supported parents with materials on home-based responses, develop strategies for recovery and the effective learning (mainly for primary and secondary) and regular targeting of limited resources. Simulations of learning telephone calls from schools. poverty focusing on the ability to read and understand a simple sentence, suggest worsening outcomes across Many MENA countries could experience a learning MENA due to COVID-19 school closures (Figure 15), making catastrophe if urgent action is not taken to provide the monitoring of foundational learning skills absolutely catch up with a specific attention given to digital and critical. Learner and teacher perspectives are also needed social-emotional learning. to triangulate government perspectives on effectiveness. Priorities for ongoing learning design include remedial Education systems need to become more equitable, and/or accelerated learning to enable students to catch up adaptive and resilient to enable all MENA’s learners to and incorporating digital skill-building to enable online and access learning at all times. hybrid learning. In the MENA region, many children were already falling behind and suffering from psycho-social This pandemic has brought to light the need for education distress and anxiety due to the prolonged conflicts and systems to find ways of engaging all their students in crises, which were exacerbated by the COVID-19 school learning, both at school and at home. The unprecedented closures. Learning design focusing on social and emotional level of disruption to teaching and learning therefore learning, as well as mental health and psychosocial support provides an opportunity to reimagine and reinvent the services, is urgently needed92 93. education system, leveraging collaboration between sectors to promote innovation and engage a wide range of Learner, teacher and parent/caregiver perspectives stakeholders in the learning process. and data on learning are needed to assess effectiveness of learning recovery Despite the COVID-19 related challenges and budget cuts experienced due to the deteriorating economic situation, education systems need to remain responsive to all Government perspectives on the effectiveness of learning their learners and other stakeholders. This requires both recovery vary in different countries across the region, as understanding and meeting their needs in flexible ways per local contexts and different teaching and learning as the situation evolves and requires increased resources strategies. However, voices of teachers, parents and learners to support education recovery. It is clear from the findings 91 UNESCO/UNICEF/World Bank (2020). What Have We Learnt? Overview of Findings from a Survey of Ministries of Education on National Responses to COVID-19. 92 UNICEF (March 2021). Mental Health and Psychosocial Support in the context of COVID 19: Implications for the Arab Region. 93 UNICEF (November 2020). COVID-19 leaves profound impact on children in the Middle East and North Africa. 50 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all of this report that reaching all students and stakeholders Ò Pandemic period: with key messages relating to education also requires a continuity and engagement clear communication strategy using multiple channels, involving community leaders, and ensuring inclusivity in 1. Continue to improve access to and messaging94. engagement in remote learning, ensure effectiveness of teaching and learning, focus on 5.2 Recommendations foundational skills and prevent students from dropping out Based on the findings of the government survey, simulations, and lessons learned to date, this section To ensure the continuous provision of education services provides recommendations for policy-makers and during school closures and prepare for reopening, decision-makers at national and school levels for short, governments should continue to improve access to remote medium and long-term strategies aimed at remediating education, including online and hybrid learning. This learning loss in MENA and creating equitable, effective provision should be focused on developing foundational and resilient teaching and learning systems which support skills, closing the digital divide and ensuring that all learners access to learning, engaged learners and enabling are engaged in learning, including disadvantaged groups environments. and young children. Key issues such as accessibility, curriculum and pedagogy, teacher support, student The most urgent priorities for policy and practice in the support, along with evaluation and assessment, should be region can be categorised in three phases95, according to clarified. the stage of the global pandemic96: Governments need to develop and implement inclusive remote education policies and strategies, including 1 Pandemic period: continuity and engagement expansion of remote education infrastructure to reach Ensuring young children and youth have all students, condensing the curriculum to focus on continuous access to quality education with a foundational skills, and providing learning packages to robust support system that engages learners, promote learning recovery. teachers, parents and caregivers; focusing on foundational skills, ensuring health and psycho- Either face-to-face, hybrid, or full remote learning settings emotional well-being for all stakeholders. need to be planned contextually, in high-tech, low-tech, or no-tech scenarios97, to meet the diverse needs of learners 2 Early recovery period: reopening and from different backgrounds, especially the most vulnerable remediating ones, including girls, learners with disabilities, refugees, Ensuring schools are reopening safely, internally displaced children and children in poor and rural comprehensive assessments are being conducted areas. See Box 7 below for guiding principles for provision and education services for learning loss recovery are of remote learning. being provided and showing results for all learners starting from the early years. 3 Post-pandemic period: accelerating and improving Accelerating learning, enhancing the quality of education, and establishing enabling learning systems for all learners. 94 The World Bank (April 2021). Communicating with Stakeholders. 95 Countries in the MENA region are going through different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, and tremendous efforts have been already made by the governments to mitigate the learning loss. Policy-makers could use this phasing as a reference to reflect and adjust the education response plans based on the actual situation in their countries. 96 World Bank (May 2020). The COVID-19 Pandemic: Shocks to Education and Policy Responses. 97 UNESCO (April 2020). Distance learning strategies in response to COVID-19 school closures. 51 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Box 7. Guiding principles for remote learning School systems can use the following principles to Strengthening monitoring of remote learning engage ALL students in meaningful and productive ways to enhance their learning: There are various types of information management systems that may be adopted to support monitoring of 1 Develop a short- and medium-term remote remote learning, such as: learning plan based on an initial assessment of Ò Content Management System; a system’s capacity and resources to support a Ò Learning Management System (LMS); multi-faceted remote learning model, including Ò Computer-Supported Collaborative Learning a combination of technologies and delivery System; and mechanisms. The short-term plan focuses on Ò Knowledge Management. emergency response to keep students learning, and the medium-term plan prepares for schools Each of these systems has a role to play in terms of to reopen and support remedial and accelerated monitoring access to material, usage of these materials, learning. use of collaborative learning strategies and the virtual community using knowledge management strategies, 2 Consult outside stakeholders (e.g. ICT ministries, respectively. In particular, LMS can provide effective broadcast regulators/companies, EdTech startups), tracking of learner activities as well as allowing for ensuring the rapid development and scale-up of evaluation of learner performance. LMS can also the designated remote learning modality. Equity be used for formative and summative assessment, should be a top consideration in all planning efforts, providing further evaluation of learning quality. as the most vulnerable students are the most disproportionately affected. 3 Create an inventory of existing content to be deployed via remote learning (and plan for how to make additional content available). Rather than developing new content, which takes significant time and expertise, focus on curating existing (especially free, ‘open’) content and aligning it to the curriculum. 4 Organise content to align with existing curricula, ensuring the learning opportunities correspond to educational objectives, and that students, their caregivers, and teachers understand what is available, and the sequence in which it should be taught. 5 Create a virtual helpdesk to support caregivers, teachers, and students. 6 Implement an offline remote learning model to support student learning at home in settings with limited technology. 7 Implement a broadcast remote learning model where broadband access is not widely available or © UNICEF/Al-Safad where online learning is simply not a viable option. 8 Utilise educational radio to deliver the curriculum in an engaging and interactive way 52 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all in settings where other connectivity options are unavailable and education radio stations exist. Radio programming schedules must be communicated to reach the appropriate audiences. 9 Utilise educational television in settings where most of the population has access to a television, and where education channels exist. 10 Implement an online/mobile remote learning model in contexts that have the infrastructure, funding, and capacity to host the technology. For countries with the infrastructure and bandwidth, improving connectivity is the first step in reaching a large audience and mitigating access inequities. Key actions include: (a) Partnering with mobile operators, telecom providers, and other providers to increase access to digital resources. (b) Using a variety of operating systems and software applications. (c) Ensuring that online learning opportunities can be accessed using mobile devices to ensure access by the widest possible user base. (d) Supporting the use of low bandwidth (including offline) solutions. (e) Mandating that online learning opportunities be optimized for low bandwidth and poor latency conditions. (f) Using a combination of remote learning models to support students. (g) Providing supplemental guidance and support on how to use and access remote learning content to students, caregivers, and teachers. (h) Using multimedia to share information with students, families and communities about remote and online learning opportunities, materials available, and where to find additional support or guidance. 11 Deliver remote learning for different education levels using multi-modal, with different technologies for different education levels. For instance, younger students require more audio/ ShineTerra/Shutterstock.com visual stimulation/ edutainment programs. 12 Use Learning Management Systems for monitoring engagement and effectiveness, communication, collaboration, and videoconference facilitated “check ins” between teachers, parents and students. For a comprehensive list of recommendations for the rollout of remote learning, see Remote Learning and Saudi Arabia and Jordan’s experience of providing remote COVID-19 rapid response https://www.worldbank.org/ learning and reflecting on the lessons learned for ‘building en/topic/edutech The World Bank 2020 back better’ post-pandemic are described in Boxes 8, 9 and 10. 53 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Box 8. One of the largest virtual schools implementation in the Arab world - Saudi Arabia’s Madrasati (‘My School’) platform98 Within one day of school closures due to the COVID-19 Preparing for rollout and continuous improvement pandemic in March 2020, distance education was made available to over 5 million K–12 children across Saudi The rollout of Madrasati was supported by a ‘Back Arabia. This immediate implementation of distance to School’ information awareness platform, bringing education at a large scale was made possible because together in one place all the user guides, video training of previous investments in e-learning, significant packages, expectations, and regulations for teachers, accumulated experience in education technologies, students, and parents. Infographics were used extensively quick decision-making, and well-coordinated efforts through social media to raise awareness and continue to across multiple entities. encourage engagement with remote education. Before the start of the 2020–21 school year, the MoE Preparing more than 400,000 teachers to use the made a decision to further enhance the dedicated iEN new digital tools and significantly alter their teaching TV channels (one for each grade) and iEN YouTube methods in a short period of time was required, and channels by requiring virtual live connections between teacher training was made widely available. A teacher students and teachers for all lessons (synchronous in each school was designated as the e-learning focal learning), wherever possible. This required infrastructure point to support their colleagues, and networking was capable of hosting over six million students online support across the teaching profession was widespread. at the same time. The result was the Madrasati (‘My Supervisors played a key role in the professional School’) platform. development of teachers, communicating and sharing good practices across subject areas and schools. Building a virtual school experience for children and Technical support was provided in multiple ways, which teachers was essential in helping students, parents, and teachers connect, particularly in the first few weeks, including a Madrasati is more than a learning management dedicated call centre, integrated live chat, support staff system. It is a unified e-learning platform containing based in district offices, and guidance to schools on how links to a comprehensive and connected set of tools to help with log-in enquiries. Feedback was frequently and services required by students, teachers, school sought from stakeholders and used to continue to leaders, and parents. The tools include Microsoft Teams, improve the platform. Office 365, iEN Portal, and interactive tools including learning resources, question banks, homework, virtual ‘Building back better’ laboratories, and self-assessments, among others. Dedicated resources were made available for children The MoE has carefully studied the experience of digital with special educational needs. and distance education during the COVID-19 pandemic and has found several benefits that will help to improve A key feature of the virtual school experience was education provision post-pandemic. These include adhering to a school routine, including a structured start enhanced communication between schools, teachers, to the school day and required attendance in virtual students, and parents; greater parental and family classes with students’ regular teachers, following a engagement with schools; exposure of students and timetable that was reduced in hours to minimize screen teachers to model lessons (recorded); better organisation time. The hours for elementary school students were of learning materials and resources; and more. moved to later in the day to allow working parents and older siblings to support younger family members and The innovations and disruption to business-as-usual in the sharing of devices. Saudi Arabia’s schools during this period of digital and remote education is set to transform children’s learning experiences well beyond the pandemic. Source: World Bank team based on interviews with KSA’s MoE. 98 For more information about Madrasati, please see: http://schools.madrasati.sa//. 54 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all Box 9. Jordan’s Learning Bridges: a national blended learning recovery programme In Jordan, schools have been fully or partially closed since March 2020. From September 2021, all schools reopened but with half of students attending only 2-3 days a week. During this time, students have continued © UNICEF Jordan, 2020 learning remotely, through televised lessons and a national online learning platform. Over 90 per cent of students have accessed the platform, but they may face challenges such as a lack of parental support or access to technology, whilst teachers had limited skills and resources to support online or blended learning. The MoE, with UNICEF support, launched Learning To support teachers, UNICEF and the MoE developed Bridges in September 2020 to address these challenges. an online training programme. For every activity pack, It is a national blended learning programme that links teachers receive a guidance sheet on how to introduce printed materials with online resources to provide the activity, support the student’s learning and give weekly activities based on core curricula. By the end of feedback. By using the QR code, teachers also have 2020/2021, Learning Bridges had reached over half a access to extra resources to help them and their students.  million students in grades 4 to 9 in over 70 per cent of schools, including refugee camps, with a target of one Every student activity pack comes with instructions to million students by the end of 2021/22. parents on what they can do to become involved in their child’s learning, without expecting parents to replace the What is Learning Bridges? role of the teacher. UNICEF has also developed a short series of videos and social media messages to encourage This innovative approach links textbooks and parents to support their children’s love of learning.  technology, school and home, and subject knowledge with applied learning. Every child in grades 4 to 9 ‘Building back better’ receives a printed A3 activity weekly, with guidance on how parents can support. Every activity pack has its 1 Challenging thinking: UNICEF’s investments during own QR code linking to an online resource with audio COVID19 are being used to strengthen the education content and extra resources. Teachers receive weekly system. Teachers have been challenged to break guidance and an online resource to support teaching. away from the textbooks and think creatively about Audio files are embedded to provide accessibility or curriculum and pedagogy. Online teacher education children with visual impairments or that have difficulty has been used to reach 30,000 teachers – a first in reading. Jordan. 2 Curricula integration: Learning Bridges has enabled This blended and remote learning offer is designed the MoE to identify core learning objectives. Weekly to support students to recover lost learning from the Learning Bridges activities are all cross curricula, previous year, and accelerate learning in the new aligned directly with the weekly content taught to academic year, regardless of the availability of face-to- each grade group. This makes curriculum delivery face teaching. Learning is accelerated by using a cross- more effective and accelerates learning. In a recent curricular approach where students are given an activity impact study, the cross curricula approach was pack that links together the key learning outcomes in viewed by the MoE as one of the greatest successes the core subjects of Arabic, English, mathematics and of Learning Bridges. science for that week’s planned curriculum. Learning is 3 Teacher Innovation: Good practice padlets are like recovered as students have access to a range of carefully large notice boards of children’s work. These are chosen media resources that ensures they can work at used by schools and supervisors and have had an their own pace, selecting resources where they need average of 100,000 views a month. Learning Bridges to build up understanding from the previous year’s Champions support teachers to be flexible and curriculum. innovate in their delivery of the curriculum. Source: UNICEF, Ministry of Education and UNICEF launch “Learning Bridges” to help one million children recover learning in Jordan 55 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Box 10. Bridging the digital divide with public-private partnerships99 The MoE in Jordan reacted quickly to minimise learning disruptions caused by school closures. Collaborating with the Ministry of Digital Economy and Entrepreneurship, along with private sector entities including Edraak and Abwaab, the MoE developed remote learning platforms including Darsak (an e-learning portal with video courses for grades 1-12 in line with the national curriculum), in addition to televising and broadcasting lessons nationally100. The MoE also launched ‘Teachers’, a web page hosting professional development courses for teachers focusing on new technologies. These initiatives require ongoing technical and financial support to be effective in improving learning outcomes for children across the country at scale. Regarding their reach so far, MoE data from November 2020 shows that 88.5 per cent of students in public schools have accessed Darsak, although the figure is lower for vulnerable groups such as refugee children and those living in temporary settlements. Severe, lifelong impacts can result from deprivations in care, nutrition, health, stimulation and learning during the early years. Strategic investments in early childhood development (ECD) and early childhood education (ECE) should therefore be prioritised to protect this generation of young children and support productivity in the longer term. Countries can leverage a range of interventions and mechanisms to support ECD as part of the COVID-19 response. The best way to reach young children is by supporting parents and caregivers. Box 11 provides some examples of support. © UNICEF/Al Smadi 99 UNICEF (2020). COVID-19 Education Response in Jordan, March to November 2020 100 UNICEF (2020). COVID-19 Education Response in Jordan, March to November 2020 56 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all Box 11. Supporting young children and their families - COVID-19 response During school closure: 1 Provide information for parents encouraging reading stories to children and reading with them (if able) through TV, radio, apps, information campaigns or specific outreach to groups or individuals. 2 Distribute books, learning and play materials through existing distribution networks such as cash transfer programmes, food distribution or community resource drops, with accompanying materials for parents. Example: Kenya engaging parents in early literacy Include ECE in school re-opening efforts: 1 Include ECE in re-enrolment campaigns 2 Provide accelerated learning programmes to promote school readiness (prior/at start of Grade 1) 3 Introduce hygiene practices in schools that include young children Example: Preschool Health and Nutrition Guidance (Save the Children) Distance education platforms: 1 Include preschool programming in remote learning platforms that are being developed for basic education 2 Provide support and learning materials for parents and children via video, radio, social media, apps, USB sticks and SD platforms in areas with low connectivity Example: Costa Rica online education platform Use radio and Interactive audio instruction if internet connectivity is low: 1 Use interactive audio instruction or radio programmes to reach parents and children with entertainment and learning activities to promote early learning. 2 Share key messaging around nutrition, health, parenting, coping, hygiene, early learning and play, as part of national and local communications campaigns Example: Interactive Audio Instruction in the DRC Use social media (especially Facebook and WhatsApp) to amplify messaging and create support networks: 1 Share keys messages for parents on parenting, coping, health, nutrition, sanitation and early learning as part of national and local communications campaigns 2 Create support networks, particularly using social media, to ensure parent support communities around coping and parenting Example: Instagram resources on parenting in the United Arab Emirates Use television where TV penetration is high, especially when internet connectivity is low: 1 Use TV entertainment and learning for children to deliver entertainment and serve as an early learning platform 2 Use TV to share messages around parenting, hygiene, children’s early learning and development and coping mechanisms. Example: Sesame Street Caring for Each Other Use mobile phones: 1 Texting can be used to share key messages on parenting, nutrition, health, and early stimulation 2 Call centres can support parents with coping techniques and ideas to promote ECD 3 Teachers can use phones to reach parents and share early learning ideas Example: Nicaragua texts to caregivers on parenting National communication campaigns 1 Information for parents around water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) for children, early stimulation, nutrition, health and child protection can be integrated into communications campaigns which are part of the COVID-19 response. Example: Kenya ECD toolkit Source: World Bank (2020). 15 Ways to Support Young Children and Their Families in the COVID-19 Response, p. 2-3. 57 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa 2. Provide support and guidance to teachers to Teachers’ digital and pedagogical skills development deal with the challenges and opportunities of is the basis for enabling teachers to teach effectively the pandemic, strengthening teacher policy while teaching remotely. The shift to teaching and and investment in teachers learning remotely should also come with guidance on how the learning objectives within the national curriculum The pandemic has challenged education systems to are expected to be achieved, and how the diagnostic ensure learning continuity and has substantially increased assessments will be conducted to enable adaptive teaching. the demands placed on teachers. In addition, teachers Continuing support should also ensure social dialogue now fear contracting COVID-19 when schools reopen. to protect teachers’ rights and ensure they are actively Countries need to support teachers to improve their engaged in shaping the education recovery101 102 103. well-being, provide continuing professional development to strengthen their pedagogical and digital skills to use Support to ensure teachers’ physical and psychosocial remote learning modalities, including concrete guidance well-being is also urgently needed. Working on the on: front lines of education, teachers should be considered Ò enforcing health protocols as schools reopen; as a priority group in national vaccination rollout plans to curb virus transmission, to protect both teachers and Ò implementing a revised curriculum using learners104, and to ensure learning continuity and safe appropriate pedagogy and ICTs; school reopening105 106. In addition, providing psycho-social Ò assessing student learning; and, support to teachers helps improve their well-being and Ò identifying and engaging children at risk of enables them to better support their students’ well-being. dropping out. Examples of initiatives to support teachers’ health and well-being in the region include: prioritising teachers for vaccination (in Egypt107, Saudi Arabia and Algeria108) and establishing professional development platforms to enable teachers to support students’ learning during emergencies (in Saudi Arabia109 and Jordan110). Empower teachers in the era of pandemic and A teacher policy that reflects the current context is remote/hybrid learning essential. In order to meet the often new and challenging expectations during and after the pandemic, teachers To cope with the drastic changes in teaching and need to be supported with clear-cut and forward-looking learning modalities, teachers require: education policies as well as flexible, cost-effective Ò Hands-on guidance on daily teaching practice, and sustainable implementation measures. Teacher and how to achieve learning objectives within the education policies need to spell out expectations towards national curriculum under the new (online/hybrid) teachers and the skills/competencies they need to teaching and learning environment; acquire and develop, with regard to adjusting learning modalities to their local conditions and sanitary situation, Ò Capacity development on effective teaching and keeping learners and parents engaged, including the learning, digital skills and teaching inter-activeness, most vulnerable. At the same time, teachers should be Ò Practical and adaptable guidelines on remedial supported in being aware of and mastering different learning, accelerated learning and teaching in modalities of teaching and learning by combining paper- emergencies. based resources, radio-TV resources and the possibilities that online/digital platforms offer. In order to empower 101 UNESCO. (April 2020). Supporting teachers and education personnel during times of crisis. 102 World Bank. (April 2021). Preparing and Supporting Teachers. 103 International Task Force on Teachers for Education 2030, UNESCO, ILO. (May 2020). Supporting teachers in back-to-school efforts: Guidance for policy-makers. 104 UNICEF. (December 2020). Teachers should be prioritized for vaccination against COVID-19. 105 UNESCO. (March 2021). Where are teachers being prioritized in COVID-19 vaccination efforts? 106 UNESCO. (July 2021). UNESCO urges all countries to prioritize teachers in national COVID-19 vaccine rollout plans to ensure education can continue safely and schools remain open. 107 Egypt Today (August 2021). WHO, UNICEF calls for prioritizing vaccinating teachers against COVID-19. 108 UNESCO (2021). Prioritization of teachers in COVID-19 vaccine rollout. 109 “Madrasati” is a unique global model compared to the top platforms in 174 countries. 110 https://www.edraak.org/en/ 58 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all teachers to fulfil their expected roles, education policies assessment, and other issues. and subsequent implementation measures need to The major principles for engaging stakeholders include: envisage structured and long-running support for teachers Ò communicating early and often, using multiple through continuous professional support. In addition to the channels mastery of their subject areas, such competencies include: Ò localising communication efforts to involve Ò Mastering the pedagogical usage of traditional and community leaders new teaching and learning modalities. Ò ensuring inclusion by using multiple languages Ò Adjusting curricula to remote/online and hybrid/ and a variety of modes blended learning, including through implementing appropriate measures to cope with learning losses, Opening feedback channels to hear from parents has been such as remedial and accelerated learning. found effective in engaging students and their families, Ò Investing in formative and classroom-based in addition to communications around health and safety. assessment in order to provide timely feedback Clear and frequent communication is crucial to ensure that to their learners and using assessment as learning students and their families are well informed and reassured opportunities. around the uncertainty and disruption of school routines. Ò Keeping their students and themselves motivated and engaged and communicating quality, Children learn best when they feel safe, affirmed, and equity and inclusion goals with parents and the deeply engaged within a supportive community of community at large. learners. Therefore, creating an enabling home learning environment with parents and caregivers who support Ò Receiving and providing appropriate psycho-social children’s learning is crucial for learners’ engagement111. support and developing social and emotional skills This includes academic support as well as ensuring for themselves and their learners, in the context of children’s well-being112. Psycho-social distress and anxiety remote/online and hybrid/blended learning. are expected to increase, irrespective of socio-economic Ò Establishing effective partnerships with colleagues categories, during prolonged school closure due to the and communities (i.e. businesses, associations, potential for greater exposure to physical, emotional and NGOs, universities) to enhance the sharing of sexual violence, exploitation and abuse. resources and learning. Ò Carrying out action and/or research to monitor and In the MENA region, especially in low-income households, assess what is working and what measures might be parents are often occupied by heavy workloads leaving scaled-up. little time for supporting children academically. While many caregivers - mostly mothers - have low literacy and digital Teacher policies and measures need to consider teachers skill levels, older siblings are in many cases supporting working conditions and physical and psychological the learning of their younger siblings. It is important to wellbeing as well as their salaries, benefits and incentives. understand parents’ experiences of home-based learning Measures include: career advancement opportunities; - and the support they need - and to develop innovative rewards and special celebrations to enhance teacher and sustainable ways of family support that contribute to visibility; and acknowledgment of their crucial impact on students’ home-based and school-based learning in the both students and society. local context. Developing adaptive strategies may also help to ensure timely school enrolment. 3. Ensure ongoing engagement of parents and caregivers with clear and inclusive communication strategies and supportive policies With the transition to home-based learning during school closures, parental engagement and support have become critical factors. Communication early and clearly has been especially important in engaging stakeholders regarding school closures and reopening, the availability of remote learning opportunities, decisions around high-stakes 111 UNESCO (April 2020). Unlocking the potential of family and intergenerational learning. 112 World Bank (April 2021) Supporting Learning From Home. 59 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa In addition, a robust communication mechanism should be established to support close communication and coordination115 between schools116, households, communities, and district level education administrations and state and/or local public health authorities, to Practical tips to engage parents and caregivers ensure policies are translated into practice efficiently and in learning effectively. Clear, strategic, and timely communication is needed to clarify the necessary information, build trust, and Ò Prepare reader-friendly and practical guidelines for encourage families who would not otherwise send their parents and caregivers on home-based and remote children back to school/learning. learning support, as well as health and nutrition. Ò Enhance the connection between school and family, keeping close contact between teachers and parents/caregivers to monitor students’ learning status and better support home learning. Ò Integrate contextualised family learning Practical tips to prepare for the safe school activities into education programme design and reopening: implementation. Ò Collect adequate and timely data and information Ò Provide regular check-ins to monitor how families from the school/community level. are coping and to determine whether additional academic and/or socio-emotional resources as well Ò Prepare clear protocols for preventive measures. as training for parents are needed. Ò Rehabilitate school infrastructure with adequate WASH facilities and ventilation. Ò Early recovery period: Ò Provide financial support to procure hygiene reopening and remediating products for education institutions, and support extensive COVID-19 testing upon reopening. 1. Ensure safe school reopening based on evidence-based decision-making Ò Prepare “Back-to-school” campaign and raise awareness on the importance of health and safe Given the different pandemic situations across the MENA school reopening. region, school reopening status varies from country Ò Adjust school hours, or implement staggered to country (and within countries). Preparing a safe timetable to reduce classroom density. environment with strict health protocols is essential to controlling disease transmission, protecting learners, teachers and staff, and enabling the safe return to school113. Measuring learning Reopening plans should be guided by health and well- being, including behavioural and mental health needs, of loss is a critical first step all children, youth, their families and communities, as well towards mitigating its as educators and other school staff. Reopening decisions and policies should be based consequences…As on adequate information from health and education experts114, include consultation with students, teachers education systems forge and parents at the school level, and be updated regularly ahead, measuring learning in line with emerging information about the pandemic and lessons learned. It is vital that national strategies are levels will prove more reviewed, revised, and adapted as well as school and important than ever 117 community level responses. 113 World Bank (April 2021). Minimizing Disease Transmission in Schools. 114 World Bank (April 2021). Communicating with Stakeholders. 115 World Bank (April 2021). Preparing and Supporting School Leaders. 116 Ibid. 117 UNESCO/UNICEF/World Bank/OECD (June 2021). What’s Next? Lessons on Education Recovery: Findings from a Survey of Ministries of Education amid the COVID-19 Pandemic 60 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all 2. Conduct comprehensive assessments to inform education planning and enable the provision of compensatory quality education It is vital to complement to all learners government perspectives Assessing the effectiveness of education responses on effectiveness with enables the provision of quality education. Thus, it is vital to complement government perspectives on effectiveness regular collection of reliable with regular collection of reliable data on learning outcomes. Box 12 details the role of different forms of assessment. It data on learning outcomes is important to consider learning assessment activities as part of a comprehensive instructional strategy and situate assessment plans as an integral part of broader systemic initiatives that Ministries of Education and schools are Box 12. The role of different forms implementing in the context of ensuring learning for all in of assessment MENA. 1 Classroom-based assessments (diagnostic, As schools reopen, students will return with different levels formative and summative) help collect evidence of knowledge and skills, with disadvantaged students of students’ learning and provide regular feedback being most likely to exhibit the greatest learning losses. on progress. This enables learning design to be Ongoing classroom-based assessments highlight learning responsive to students’ needs and ensure learning gaps, enabling provision of personalised instruction and equity, especially for the learning poor, whose improvement of learning equity. These should initially learning levels may otherwise worsen even further, prioritise students in the early grades or transition years. as shown by simulation results of learning poverty When resources (including time until reopening) are gaps (Table 2.1). limited, diagnostic classroom assessment on core subjects, such as language and mathematics, can be prioritised to 2 System-wide diagnostic assessments at ensure students acquire the foundational knowledge and national or sub-national level, conducted across skills which will scaffold other skills and competencies118. In all grades (especially transitional grades) on addition to assessment at the time of reopening, progress school re-opening, could facilitate comprehensive towards learning goals can be measured using ongoing measurement of learning loss at country level. formative and summative classroom assessment, enabling Assessments may focus initially on foundational learning design which is responsive to students’ progress. skills, including literacy, maths, and science. This will provide real-time evidence of the extent to which students are catching up with their pre-pandemic 3 National summative assessments, including trajectories or accelerating their learning. end of cycle examinations and certification processes, should be implemented regardless of Large-scale assessment allows policymakers to monitor the modification of school calendars, as they have system-wide learning trends and make evidence-based a significant impact on students’ retention and decisions. In the context of school reopening, large-scale subsequent study and /or career plans. Appropriate assessments can help quantify learning losses and identify summative assessment plans will help to reduce needs at the system level, enabling targeted resource stress among learners at the end of school cycles, allocation. Initially, governments may consider developing and keep at-risk and vulnerable children and youth intermediary benchmarks for the effectiveness of learning engaged in learning, instead of dropping out. programmes (e.g. enrolment, alignment to national curriculum, teacher/student engagement, teacher/parent perceptions). Introducing mechanisms for data collection and monitoring (e.g. text message and phone surveys) is crucial for learning design and resource allocation that meets students’ needs on an ongoing basis. 118 These core subjects are relevant learning building blocks for the rest of the curriculum. Understanding literacy and numeracy skills of students as they return to school will help teachers adjust their instructional practices to support students’ understanding of the broader curriculum. 61 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Availability of resources is a major consideration in determining assessment options. Critical resources include time until reopening, staff and financial resources of institutions at multiple levels (central, district, school and classroom). Countries with sufficient resources could ideally plan for systematic implementation of both classroom assessment, to target instruction, and large-scale assessments, to monitor learning and support resource allocation at the system level, as soon as schools reopen. See Annex 6 on assessment types and their key differences. Box 13 outlines the role of assessment in advancing SDG 4 of the 2030 Agenda119 120 121. Box 13. Advancing SDG 4 by improving minimum proficiency in reading and maths Ambitions for education are captured in SDG 4 of the 2030 Agenda which aims to ‘ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all’ by 2030. The proportion of children enrolled in education and their proficiency levels in reading and mathematics are crucial indicators to delineate children’s learning status, which affects both empowerment and wellbeing at the individual level, and socio-economic and political outcomes at large. Within SDG 4, there are 11 global and 32 thematic indicators that present access, quality, and relevance of the education outcomes. Countries are expected to report on the progress of the Education 2030 agenda using these indicators. SDG 4 indicator 4.1.1, conducting systematic assessments along with international standards (such as EGRA, EGMA, TIMSS, PIRLS) allows us to monitor progress and evaluate students’ proficiency level in literacy skills at different ages and/or grades. In countries with scarce education resources, it is encouraged to develop and deliver national assessments when international assessments are not feasible. In 2021, countries in the Arab region confirmed the ShineTerra/Shutterstock.com regional benchmark of seven selected indicators as a target for the year 2025 and 2030, including indicator 4.1.1. Countries are therefore encouraged to strengthen their national assessment to quantify quality of learning, including of foundational skills. The data collected is expected to improve teaching and learning practices, optimise education policies and ultimately advance SDG 4. 119 https://www.education-progress.org/en/articles/learning#4.1.1a. 120 SDG4 indicator 4.1.1: Proportion of children and young people (a) in Grade 2 or 3; (b) at the end of primary education; and (c) at the end of lower secondary education achieving at least a minimum proficiency level in (i) reading and (ii) mathematics, by sex. 121 EGRA: Early Grade Reading Assessment; EGMA: Early Grade Mathematics Assessment; TIMSS: Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study; PIRLS: Progress in International Reading Literacy Study. 62 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all Box 14. Learning data compact in MENA In many low- and middle-income countries, learning resources to improve the production and use of learning data are not collected frequently and, in some countries, data effectively and transparently. not collected at all. In MENA, less than half of the countries have collected recent learning data that can Measuring learning at different stages of the school be used for reporting on SDG 4.1.1, and many of these cycle, particularly in earlier grades, is critical to ensure countries are low- and middle-income countries. that children acquire the necessary competencies to master learning goals in higher grades, and beyond COVID-19 has given a new impetus to the global school. At the core of the Learning Data Compact is learning monitoring agenda. The expected learning the vision that all countries, especially low- and middle- losses in MENA, whose estimates are derived largely from income countries, assess learning for students in at least simulations so far, need to be measured to help countries 2 subjects, at least 2 grades, and with at least 2 planned allocate the resources and effort needed to address the rounds of measurement by 2030. learning crisis and identify effective mitigation strategies, which can be replicated, improved, and scaled-up for a The Compact will support developing holistic and stronger learning recovery and acceleration programmatic approaches to large-scale assessment, data on the drivers of learning, and classroom The Learning Data Compact is a commitment to ensure assessment. Depending on each country’s national that all countries, especially low- and middle-income strategy and context, and capabilities, governments countries, have at least two quality measures of learning may decide to implement one or more of these data by 2030. collection activities for monitoring student learning outcomes. However, measurement of learning outcomes UNESCO, UNICEF, and the World Bank have formed the can’t be a one-off activity, and it must be aligned with Learning Data Compact (LDC) to support coordinated other policies of the education system that facilitate use efforts to close the learning data gaps that still exist of learning data through building analytical capacity and worldwide. Building on shared principles, process, leveraging the results of assessments to make decisions and accountability, the LDC provides a framework for about education policy. Through these efforts, the LDC coordinating processes, initiatives, and resources to aims to end the learning data crisis, which is essential measure learning and to increase their joint impact by to ensure that all children receive a good quality of avoiding fragmentation and duplication of effort. It aims education and countries achieve their national learning to leverage existing and new technical and financial goals. Read more about the Learning Data Compact here. Figure 20. Learning data gaps in MENA Two or more SDG measurement Bahrain - Iran - Kuwait - Lebanon - Malta - Morocco - Oman - Qatar points in the last 3 years Saudi Arabia - United Arab Emirates Two or more SDG measurement Egypt - Tunisia points from more than 3 and less than 7 years ago Only one SDG measurement Algeria - Jordan point over last 7 years No SDG measurement point Djibouti - Iraq - Libya - Sudan - Syrian Arab Republic in the last 7 years Palestine/Palestinian territories - Yemen Source: Learning Data Compact groups from UIS Database 63 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Table 5 displays recommendations regarding the implementation of diagnostic classroom assessments under four different resource scenarios. Table 5. Implementation of diagnostic classroom assessment under four resource scenarios Extremely limited resources Moderate resources Key areas Key considerations How to Implement Key Considerations How to Implement Assessment Use existing classroom 1. Ministries of Education Develop new diagnostic 1.Ministries of Education strategy assessment tools for core distribute to schools classroom assessment identify the curriculum subjects; otherwise use existing classroom tools aligned to the content to be assessed existing tools particularly assessment tools and curriculum. Use some for each assessed subject to assess foundational existing supplementary content from already and school grade based knowledge and skills. training materials to developed tools, if on the previous school administer and score needed. grade’s curriculum. these tools. 2. Ministries of Education Subjects Core subjects or core Prioritise core subjects 2. Once schools reopen, develop and distribute to foundational skills (e.g., and one additional teachers administer schools detailed plans of literacy and numeracy). relevant subject per the existing classroom the classroom assessment grade. If possible, expand assessment tools. tasks and activities to to all school subjects. Teachers can first focus assess the selected Grades Prioritise early school on re-establishing the As many school grades as curriculum content. grades. classroom culture, possible. 3.Teachers are trained ensuring student well- on the administration, Assessment Archived information National curriculum. being and reviewing scoring, interpretation inputs of existing classroom Additional sources of critical material from and use of diagnostic assessment tools. information, such as foundational subjects classroom assessment Otherwise, publicly teacher guides, lesson covered during the tools. available frameworks plans, and textbooks, previous school year. 4.Once schools reopen, (e.g., EGRA or EGMA) for consulted as needed. teachers administer foundational literacy and 3. Teachers score the comprehensive numeracy skills. assessments and diagnostic assessments of interpret the results Timeline Start as soon as possible. Start at least three months students’ knowledge and to guide personalised Consider time for logistics. before schools reopen. skills in relevant subjects instruction, as well Teacher Distribute existing Develop supplementary of the curriculum within as communicate training supplementary written guidelines the first few weeks using the results to school guidelines to support for assessment the diagnostic classroom principals, who allocate teachers in assessment administration, scoring, assessment tools made support and additional administration, scoring, interventions to and results interpretation available by the MoE. results interpretation and and use. 5.Teachers score and students with greatest use. interpret the assessment need. results for each student in the classroom, and use this information to support personalised instruction, provide constructive feedback, and promote learning recovery. Source: adapted from Luna-Bazaldua et al., 2020122 122 Luna-Bazaldúa, D., Levin, D. and Liberman, J. (2020). Guidance note on using learning assessment in the process of school reopening http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/856951606239586214/pdf/Guidance-Note-on-Using-Learning-Assessment-in-the-Process-of- School-Reopening.pdf 64 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all dieddin/Shutterstock.com 3. Implement remedial and catch-up learning and curriculum adjustment, assessment methods and programmes to remediate lost learning effective delivery formats and settings, incorporating these in national education policy and providing immediate Remedial or accelerated education services can be support for its implementation at the school level. effective strategies to tackle the issue of learning loss caused by extended school closures, disruptions in Online remedial programmes may be feasible for high the academic calendar, and uneven access to remote income countries, while in low-income countries, face-to- learning opportunities123 124. face remedial interventions with strict health protocols are more appropriate and may be considered as a long-term The accumulated learning and skills loss associated investment, given the limited human and financial resources. with school closures make the back-to-school process very challenging for all students125. Immediate and Possible approaches include increasing in-person contextualised remedial education programmes with interactions128 between teachers and students in the coming compensatory education policy support at a national level months, e.g. by extending school days, providing programs are urgently needed126 to minimise learning loss, reduce during holiday breaks (such as summer school) and hybrid the possibility of school drop-outs, and potentially help experiences to extend inclusive learning opportunities129. reduce COVID-19-related education costs in the long run, by as much as 75 per cent127. Countries should also consider condensing the curriculum to focus on core subjects and fundamental competencies Governments should develop practical guidance on within those subjects130. See more detailed examples in remedial education, including clear learning standards Box 15. 123 Azevedo, J.P., Hasan, A., Goldenberg, D., Iqbal, S.A. and Geven, K. (2020). Simulating the potential impacts of COVID-19 school closures on schooling and learning outcomes: a set of global estimates. World Bank. 124 UNESCO (2021). Recovering lost learning: what can be done quickly and at scale? 125 UNESCO, World Bank, UNICEF (2021). Mission: Recovering Education in 2021 126 World Bank (April 2021). Remediating Learning Loss. 127 UNESCO. UNESCO warns that the funding gap to achieve SDG 4 in poorer countries risks increasing to US$ 200 billion annually due to COVID-19 if we do not take urgent action. 128 Ultimately a return to face to face learning is the goal for all learners. 129 UNESCO, UNICEF, World Bank, OECD (June 2021). What’s Next? Lessons on Education Recovery: Findings from a Survey of Ministries of Education amid the COVID-19 Pandemic 130 The World Bank (April 2021). Adapting the Curriculum. 65 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Box 15. Examples of approaches to remediation 1 Catch-Up Programme. In Syria, there has been a time to the school day, for students to move from significant drop in general and vocational secondary grade-based classrooms to classrooms based on their education for the 15-17 age group. Between 2010 level, as determined by the diagnostic assessment. and 2018, there was an 8.2 per cent decline in general In these level-based classrooms, trained volunteers secondary education and a 24.1 per cent decline or government schoolteachers deliver specialised in vocational secondary education, primarily due to instruction designed to help students quickly forced displacement inside and outside the country. advance from level to level. When used in India, in 50 Even with those who managed to stay in school, the days of focused teaching by lightly trained volunteers, pass rate of Grade 9 national examination recorded this approach raised achievement levels for students a decline of approximately 8 per cent, while the in grades 3 to 5 from close to the lowest achievement number of candidates who undertook the Grade levels, to the level of learning of the third-highest 9 and Grade 12 national examinations declined by achieving state131. Similarly positive results were 34 per cent and 63 per cent, respectively. Learning achieved in Ghana using this approach under Ghana’s loss, increasing dropout rates, and inequality in Teacher Community Assistant Initiative132. educational systems are the direct results of the COVID-19 pandemic on youth; there is no doubt 3 Small group tutoring programmes can that these adverse effects will impact poor children substantially increase student achievement, especially disproportionately. In coordination with the MoE, as a among low-achieving students. Teachers and school response, UNESCO delivered a Catch-up Programme leaders decide which approach best fits their needs, in June-July 2020 and February-April 2021. which partners with whom to work, and which students will benefit most from additional tutoring. The Programme sought to support the needs of learners/students in Syrian public schools by offering 4 Individualised self-learning programmes, remedial classes for students in key subjects: Arabic, including computer-assisted instruction, can be used Math, Science, and English/French language to with limited teacher input and guidance, enabling compensate for their pandemic-related education students to progress incrementally towards mastery loss and to strengthen students and increase their of foundational skills. These activities can be pencil- ability to pass the national exam successfully. In total, and-paper based, or, in systems where the adequate more than 73,000 Grade 9 and Grade 12 students technology is available in schools or homes, using benefited from the Programme. Overall, the impact computer-assisted self-learning programmes. of the Programme was positive, where the average Computer-assisted instruction can use interactive pass rate of those students that underwent the 2020 animation, sound and demonstration, followed by Programme was 75 per cent. The governorates with opportunities for students to complete tasks at their highest pass rates were Tartous (91 per cent), rural own pace while providing immediate feedback. Damascus (82 per cent), and As Sweida (82 per cent). Adaptive software programmes assess students, assign practice of particular skills, and monitor 2 Teaching at the right level involves grouping student progress. This approach operationalises children by their level of achievement, not by their teaching at the right level, in a cost-effective way. age or grade. This approach includes specific activities Examples from India and Uruguay show that and instruction designed to move students to the computer-assisted instruction can increase learning, next level and is combined with close tracking of with evidence suggesting a larger positive impact for children’s progress. The learning activities focus on students from disadvantaged backgrounds133. foundational skills in language and mathematics. It can be accomplished by allowing extra dedicated 131 Banerjee, A., Rukmini, B., James, B., Esther, D., Harini, K., Shobhini, M., Marc, S., and Michael W. (2016). Mainstreaming an Effective Intervention: Evidence from Randomized Evaluations. India. NBER Working Paper 22746. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research. 132 Beg, S., Fitzpatrick, A., Lucas, A., Tsinigo, E., and Atimone, H. Strengthening Teacher Accountability to Reach All Students (STARS). 133 Global Education Evidence Advisory Panel (2020). Cost-Effective Approaches to Improve Global Learning: What Does Recent Evidence Tell Us Are ‘Smart Buys’ for Improving Learning in Low- and Middle-Income Countries? 66 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all Given that many countries in the region have long- term experience implementing remedial education programmes139 140 141, it is also important to review existing policies and practices on remedial learning, ensuring an explicit and systematic approach to improve the effectiveness of these initiatives. Ò Post-pandemic period: accelerating and improving 1. Develop and implement policies that enable accelerated learning for all learners, including the most vulnerable, while building more resilient systems The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity to reimagine education systems, recover learning loss, while building more resilient and equitable education systems with strategies to ensure learning for everyone, everywhere. The pandemic has highlighted the urgency for MENA countries © UNICEF/Chnkdji to build systems that are geared towards improving and accelerating learning for all students. Low learning outcomes were a major challenge before the COVID-19 pandemic, which has exacerbated the challenge and made it clear that ‘recovering lost learning’ is not sufficient for MENA, especially in countries where the majority of students were already not 5 Summer school is another approach to providing achieving the minimum competencies. more instructional time for remediation. While summer school is a fairly common intervention, it In addition, the pandemic has demonstrated the may need to be expanded to more students due importance of learning continuity at home, the need to to COVID-19 disruptions134. Belgium offered free close the digital divide for schools and households, and summer school for all in 2020135 and a summer school the critical role of teachers and parents. The changing programme in Tanzania was successful in providing nature of education systems and learning provision can be remediation for vulnerable students136. Summer embraced as an opportunity to innovate, for the benefit school programmes are associated with learning of both present and future learners; Box 16 explores the gains when they are intensive, well-resourced, involve key principles for effective and innovative use of education small group instruction by trained and experienced technology. Building on the investments made in remote teachers, and focus on academic content. learning systems will contribute to creating resilient systems that can withstand the impact of future crises142. 6 Grade retention - given the extended school closures and the reduction in instructional time, 134 Perry, A. (2020). Every student needs summer school this year to grade retention may emerge as a potential option combat coronavirus learning loss. to remediate students who have fallen behind. 135 UNESCO (2020). COVID-19 Response—Remediation. However, some research shows that the benefits of 136 Ibid. 137 retention are unclear and that the risk of negative Peixoto, F., Vera, M., Lourdes, M., Cristina, S., Joana, P., and Leandro, socio-emotional outcomes, such as increased stress S. A. (2016). To Be or Not to Be Retained… That’s the Question! Retention, Self-esteem, Self-concept, Achievement Goals, and and decreased self-esteem, are high137. Available Grades. evidence points to using retention only when 138 Education Endowment Foundation (2018). Small Group Tuition. students are truly unprepared for the next level of 139 Jusoor (June 2017). Evaluating Remedial Education Programs for instruction and when complementary remedial Refugee Children. 140 interventions are provided138. UNICEF (February 2006). Remedial education helps millions of Palestinian children. 141 American Institutes for Research (February 2015). A Second Sources: UNESCO. Learning initiative for vulnerable youth in Syria. The Chance: Remedial Reading in Egypt. World Bank (2021). Remediating Learning Loss. 142 UNESCO, UNICEF, World Bank, OECD (June 2021). What’s Next? Lessons on Education Recovery: Findings from a Survey of Ministries of Education amid the COVID-19 Pandemic 67 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Box 16. Five Key Principles for Education Technology (EdTech) Investments Ask why: EdTech policies and projects need to be developed with a clear purpose, strategy, and vision of the desired educational change. EdTech considerations should focus on “education” and not just on the “technology”. Design and act at scale, for all: The design of EdTech adriaticfoto/Shutterstock.com initiatives should be flexible and user-centered, with an emphasis on equity and inclusion, in order to realize scale and sustainability for all. EdTech has exacerbated inequalities, and this need not be the case. Understanding users’ needs and contexts will lead to more inclusive investments in EdTech. Empower teachers: Technology should enhance teacher engagement with students through improved Be data-driven: Evidence-based decision making within access to content, data, and networks, helping teachers cultures of learning and experimentation, enabled to better support student learning. by EdTech, leads to more impactful, responsible, and equitable uses of data. There will be an abundance of Engage the ecosystem: Education systems should take data, and therefore a need for capacity to utilize data a whole-of-government and multi-stakeholder approach and evidence to inform decisions that improve teaching, to engage a broad set of actors to support student learning, and the management of the education system. learning, including as well governmental agencies, students, teachers, school leaders, parents/caregivers, The diagram below illustrates these key principles and non-governmental organizations, academia, and the interconnected areas: private sector. CC T Safety/Ethics Evaluation AI/ML Privacy Cloud Value Exchange Devices Adaptive Certification Learning Connectivity Blockchain Policy Digital Infrastructure Digital identity BE DATA Data visualization DRIVE N ENG AG E the NRENs EC OS YS TEM Procurement Startups Ecosystem Data collection EMIS AssistiveTechnologies 21st century skills Skills LEARNER Mobile based Digital Skills DESIGN and Computer based STEA M AC T AT SC ALE, Digital AS K WHY? FOR ALL Assessment Literacies Digital Learning VR/ AR Materials TV Gaming Remote EMPO WERED Online Learning TEA CHER S Training OER Mobile Skills Pedagogy Radio Source: World Bank (2020). Reimagining Human Connections: Technology and Innovation in Education at the World Bank, p. 7. 68 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all Education systems need to ensure equitable access to poverty severity (Table 2.2), and will therefore require learning, learner engagement and enabling environments, targeted instructional support to address the heterogenous and well-managed education systems, that are essential learning needs of both the children below the minimum to the learning process. These thematic areas are also proficiency threshold and of those out of school. reflected in a recent WB publication143 which stresses five pillars which could guide countries in developing strategies To maximise the effectiveness of accelerated learning towards improved learning for all (see Box 17). programmes, governments need to establish policies and strategies that align regular assessment, professional development of teachers (including initial teacher Box 17. Five pillars for ‘building back education), and customised curricula147 with accelerated better’ education systems education based on local contexts and needs. Such support should emphasise student engagement and Learners are prepared and motivated to learn with a reflection on the actual needs of the learners, especially the stronger emphasis on whole-child development and most vulnerable children148. support to learning continuity beyond the school. Teachers are effective and valued and ready to take 2. Strengthen cross-sectoral coordination and on an increasingly complex role as facilitators of provide holistic support for the rebuilding of learning at and beyond the school, using education equitable, effective and resilient education technology. systems for all learners Learning resources, including curricula, are diverse and high-quality to support good pedagogical practices and personalised learning. It is important to use this Schools are safe and inclusive spaces with a whole- opportunity to strengthen and-beyond-the-school approach to preventing and addressing violence and leaving no child behind. multisectoral approaches Education systems are well-managed with school to programming and leaders who ensure effective pedagogy and a support bold government competent educational bureaucracy adept at using technology, data, and evidence. actions and investments in Source: Saavedra, Aedo and Arias Diaz (2020) comprehensive school health, mental health, psycho-social The reach and effectiveness of the remote education support, WASH, protection provided during the pandemic varies, exacerbating learning poverty and inequality among children144. and nutrition. This will require Building on the efforts made to recover learning loss, strong partnerships, including accelerated education is a critical strategy which not only helps students catch up and continue grade-level supporting communities, instruction in less time145, but also facilitates the integration teacher education institutions, of marginalised children into learning, especially girls, refugees, out-of-school children, children with disabilities parent-teacher associations and children from poor and rural areas146. and civil society in the It is critical to keep in mind the extent of learning inequalities among the learning deprived populations, which will likely planning, implementation and rise even further, as shown by simulation results of learning monitoring of these services . 149 143 Saavedra, A. and Arias D. (2020). Realizing the future of learning: from learning poverty to learning for everyone, everywhere.. 144 UNICEF. (November 2020). The impact of COVID-19 on children in the Middle East and North Africa. 145 Linda Darling-Hammond, Adam K. Edgerton. (April 2021). Accelerating Learning as We Build Back Better. 146 UNICEF. (2020). Supplemental Content F: Accelerated Education as COVID-19 Responses In Guidance for COVID-19 Prevention and Control in Schools. 147 Andrew Myers. (May 2021). To Catch Students Up, Don’t Remediate. Accelerate. 148 National Centre for Learning Disabilities. (February 2021). Promising Practices to Accelerate Learning for Students with Disabilities During COVID-19 and Beyond: State-Level Policy Recommendations and Actions. 149 UNESCO, UNICEF, World Bank (March 2021). Framework for reopening schools supplement: from reopening to recovery 69 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa The COVID-19 pandemic has presented the challenge Countries whose governments find it impossible to protect to global education systems of combining urgent, crisis- their overall levels of spending will need to explore ways induced responses with building greater resilience and to reallocate their overall budget to provide funding to responsiveness to the needs of all learners. Holistic support priority sectors, including education. Decisions over how to children and youth is needed more than ever to enable to allocate public spending involve difficult trade-offs, but them to develop the skills, knowledge, and values required in the immediate COVID-19 pandemic, priority has to be to navigate the world effectively. given to funding health and social protection to protect lives and livelihoods. These priorities will also help to Education policy and service provision (including donor minimise learning losses. Where it is not possible to make policy) needs to be coordinated with policies related to intersectoral budget adjustments, reallocations within the health, social protection, child protection, information education budget will be needed to ensure that frontline technology and national statistics, in partnership with services are protected. In these cases, it will be critical the relevant ministries. Cross-sectoral discussions at both to prioritise existing funds to cover the additional costs policy and practice level are vital, as are cross-sectoral data associated with the pandemic response and to minimise collection, management, and analysis, to identify the most disruptions to the quality of education services. effective learning pathways and ensure a holistic approach to learning and wellbeing. Equity and inclusion should also There is therefore an urgent need for advocacy to protect be at the centre of learning design and delivery, paying the current levels of public investment in education amid special attention to the most marginalised and vulnerable the tough budgetary choices governments have to make, children and youth, leaving no one behind. and to expand public investment in education in areas where contractions have been experienced. Flexible, The ‘new normal’ of education has shifted the way multi-year funding is required to make government teaching and learning takes place, and to adapt to this education systems more resilient to shocks, and ensure transformation, education stakeholders must build open, the implementation of adjusted learning modalities. resilient mindsets, appreciating people, especially teachers, Lack of such funding will exacerbate education as the core of education systems, while leveraging the challenges, creating long-term obstacles for the most innovative role of technology in teaching and learning. vulnerable populations of learners. Cross-sectoral and ‘Building back better’ by creating environments in which skills development efforts in close collaboration with learners influence their own learning experiences and ministries beyond the MoE, including Ministries of Finance pathways within an enabling ecosystem, supported by and Planning, are essential to mobilise urgently-needed stakeholders across the whole system, will equip them funding (both domestic and foreign) for education. to thrive as lifelong learners in contexts of uncertainty, disruption and change. Governments, together with local education administrations, are therefore recommended to gather data 3. Identify mechanisms to finance the pandemic on costing needs for ensuring learning continuity, followed response in the education sector and advocate by robust policy and financial simulations to enable more for efficient, effective and equitable investment efficient, effective and equitable investments in education. in education Technical assistance may also be mobilised to introduce key concepts and techniques used in simulation modelling, The economic impact of the pandemic over the past two and their effects on education policies and planning. years and additional economic risks, such as the oil price implosion and lingering debt distress, has led to a fiscal In all countries, the pandemic places a spotlight on squeeze on governments in MENA. However, countries the need to use resources as efficiently and equitably need to identify mechanisms to finance the pandemic as possible. In many countries, there are significant response and minimise disruptions to the development inefficiencies in education spending, which often drive of their education sector. Many countries will find it large inequalities in spending between different regions challenging to protect their education budgets over the and children from different socioeconomic backgrounds. next few years. However, it will be critical to include funds The sources of this inefficiency and unequal use of public to cover the pandemic response in education. Countries funding differ across countries, but often include the such as Algeria are making efforts to ensure that social uneven distribution of teachers, and fiscal transfer formulas spending, including education, is protected during the that fail to take account of differences. current crisis150. 150 The World Bank (2021). Accelerating Reforms to Protect the Algerian Economy. 70 Chapter 5 • ‘Building back better’: enabling quality education for all CHAPTER 6 Conclusion: call to action 71 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa 6. Conclusion: call to action In response to COVID-19 pandemic school closures, governments across the MENA region have implemented Recovering lost learning in MENA will require a variety of remote teaching and learning strategies. reimagining education systems in several important Although the majority of school-age children were reached ways: by some form of learning in 2020-21, 37 million (40 per cent) children were not reached and pre-existing 1 During the pandemic and early recovery period, learning disparities continue to grow. it is important to address inequalities in learning access, as school closures can disproportionately The simulations present a sobering picture, projecting impact marginalised and vulnerable groups, such as worsening educational outcomes for millions of children girls, ethnic minorities, and children with disabilities, in the region, as measured by learning poverty, LAYS and potentially worsening inequality and exclusion. PISA. The loss in schooling and learning is likely to impact It is also critical to provide access for the early lifetime earnings, with losses projected to be as high as years and make remote instruction more effective US$1 trillion for the region as a whole, in the worst-case through stronger support for teachers, parents and scenario. caregivers, more learner-centered pedagogical practices, and personalised and adaptive learning. To mitigate these losses, there is an urgent need for all education stakeholders and policymakers to ensure 2 As children return to in-person schooling, it is critical children’s safe return to school, and until that is possible, to ensure safe school reopening, assess potential to ensure that all children have equitable access to remote learning losses, and support teachers to ensure or hybrid learning. Furthermore, it will require a concerted that teaching is adapted to the learning levels of effort to accelerate learning by allowing opportunities for the students, so they can catch up and recover lost remedial and catch-up learning for all children, in order learning. This requires monitoring and evaluating to tackle the worsening learning crisis that predated the learning and wellbeing to generate better evidence COVID-19 pandemic. on effective teaching and learning strategies (online, hybrid and face-to-face) and to inform ongoing Simulations suggest that COVID-19-related school closures learning provision. are likely to set back the learning and future prospects of MENA’s current school-aged learners in a number of 3 Policy-makers and educators must integrate the significant ways, including increasing learning poverty, lessons emerging from the provision of remote reducing learning proficiency in PISA, and reducing lifetime and hybrid instruction over the past two years. earnings. However, though these projections underline Education systems will need to strengthen their the severity of current and (potentially) future learning loss, infrastructure (including education technology) to these negative outcomes are not inevitable. become more adaptive and resilient. They will also need to be able to pivot quickly to provide effective The disruption caused by the pandemic has created an remote and hybrid learning as required in the face opportunity, not only to recover lost learning, but also of future crises, in order to ensure effective learning to build stronger, more resilient education systems, on a sustainable basis for all children across the better able to serve their students and societies. We must MENA region. therefore seize this opportunity and take immediate action to ensure effective teaching and learning for all of the region’s children. 72 ANNEXES ANNEXES Annex 1: Remote education delivery systems used in MENA: country details (10 March 2021) World Bank data and assumptions Annex 2: Simulation model: data and assumptions Learning and earning losses Annex 3: Assessment types and their key differences 73 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Annex 1 Remote education delivery systems used in MENA Remote education delivery systems used in MENA: country details [10th March 2021]: Which of the following education delivery systems have been deployed as part of the national (or subnational) distance education strategy for different levels of education? Paper based take-home materials Television for parents/students Pre- Primary Lower Upper Pre- Primary Lower Upper primary secondary secondary primary secondary secondary Algeria x x x x x x P P Bahrain x x x x P P P P Djibouti x P x x x P P P Egypt, Arab Rep ! ! ! ! ! P P ! Iran, Islamic Rep ! x x x ! P x x Iraq ! x x x ! P P ! Iraq (KRI) ! x x x ! P P P Jordan x P P P P P P P Kuwait ! x x x ! x x x Lebanon x P P P x x x x Libya ! ! ! ! ! P P P Morocco P P P P P P P P Oman P P P P P P P P Qatar x x x x P P P P Saudi Arabia P P P P P P P P Sudan P P P P x P P x Syria Arab Republic x x x x P P P P Tunisia x x x x x P P P United Arab Emirates x x x x x P x x Palestine/Palestinian x P P P x x x P territories Yemen, Rep x x x x x x P P P x ! Legend Yes No No information Sources: UNESCO-UNICEF-World Bank Survey on National Education Responses to COVID-19 School Closures (2020) and UNICEF Country offices (2020) and John Hopkins tracker. 74 ANNEXES Remote education delivery systems used in MENA: country details [10th March 2021]: Which of the following education delivery systems have been deployed as part of the national (or subnational) distance education strategy for different levels of education? Online learning platforms Radio Pre- Primary Lower Upper Pre- Primary Lower Upper primary secondary secondary primary secondary secondary Algeria x x P P x x x x Bahrain x P P P P P P P Djibouti ! P P P x P x x Egypt, Arab Rep ! ! P P ! ! ! ! Iran, Islamic Rep ! P P P ! x x x Iraq ! P P P ! x x x Iraq (KRI) ! P P P ! x x x Jordan P P P P x x x x Kuwait ! P P P ! x x x Lebanon P P P P x x x x Libya ! P P P ! x x x Morocco P P P P x P P P Oman P P P P x x x x Qatar P P P P x x x x Saudi Arabia P P P P x x x x Sudan ! P ! ! x x x x Syria Arab Republic P P P P x x x x Tunisia x P P P x x x x United Arab Emirates P P P P x x x x Palestine/Palestinian x P P P x P P P territories Yemen, Rep x P P P x x x x P x ! Legend Yes No No information 75 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Annex 2 Simulation model: data and assumptions Figure A1. Pathways of learning loss and simulation parameters Mitigation effectiveness (m) outcomes: Learning Governments use remote Learning gains (p) Share of learning to Learners in When mitigate the Learning Poverty children go to shock (G) (simulation 1) Schools school they are learn and Access to remote closed for a when they learning varies Learning- Lifetime number of are away they by family welfare Adjusted Earnings months (s) forget quintile (A) Years of Loss Schooling (simulation A share (LAYS) 4) Effectiveness of of the system (simulation 2) remote learning is closed (c) is not 100% and is heterogeneous (E) Share of Learners below A share minimum Effects are Schooling of the system proficiency level heterogenous by is closed (c) (MPL) in PISA family welfare quintile (w) (simulation 3) Dropout-income elasticity (d) where, • p, learning gains (school productivity) or what children learn when they go to school; • s, months of school closures and children are not learning, adjusted by partial closure parameters. Data from UNESCO School Closure database; • m, mitigation effectiveness is an exogenous parameter determined by: 1. (G) Government coverage of remote learning, varying from 0-100%, 0 if the government is not providing any alternative learning modality to 100% if a government is supplying alternatives to the entire student population. Intermediate values can be considered if the government is only providing content for a subset of the languages of instruction of the country, or if supply only covers certain geographical locations of the country, leaving a share of students without any provision. 76 ANNEXES 2. (A) Access to alternative learning modalities, reflects the share of leaners with access to the remote learning material offered by the government, varying from 0-100%. 0 if no student has access, to 100% if all students have access. This indicator can also capture the take-up of what is being offered by the government through G. 3. (E) Effectiveness of remote learning. This parameter ranges from 0-100%, 0 if the remote learning solutions are expected to have no effect, and 100% if those solutions are expected to be fully effective. More evidence is needed to further build this parameter, and it should ideally capture the expected effectiveness of the alternative modalities offered through G. Hence, m = G * A * E In the context of the global simulations, the parameter “m” is used as a single parameter which combines all three elements described above. • γ, families are losing income. The income loss is an exogenous parameter, as is determined by existing GDP projections, from the World Bank and IMF. • d, countries have age group specific income elasticities to schooling, which may cause some children to drop out. • Learning, measured in terms of Harmonized Learning Outcomes (HLO), PISA score, PISA Level, or Learning Poverty. HLO is measured as: (Total School Weeks of Closure)/Total School Weeks)(Learning Gains*((Total School Weeks/43.3)*(1- Mitigation Effectiveness)) • Schooling, measured in Expected Years of Schooling (EYS). • LAYS, Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling Source: Azevedo et al. (2020) 77 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Table A1.1: Learning poverty, learning poverty gap, and learning poverty severity by gender Learning Poverty Learning Poverty Learning Poverty Gap   Severity All Female Male All Female Male All Female Male Algeria - - - - - - - - - Bahrain 32.1% 22.0% 41.9% 7.4% 4.0% 10.9% 3.6% 1.9% 5.3% Djibouti Egypt, Arab Rep. 69.6% 64.9% 74.1% 23.7% 19.4% 28.4% 12.3% 9.0% 15.5% Iran, Islamic Rep. 35.7% 26.0% 44.1% 8.7% 5.9% 11.3% 3.7% 2.6% 4.8% Iraq Jordan 52.0% 48.2% 55.3% 15.6% 12.2% 19.6% 8.5% 5.8% 10.9% Kuwait 51.0% 44.1% 58.2% 14.2% 9.9% 19.3% 7.2% 4.0% 10.4% Lebanon Libya Morocco 65.8% 61.3% 70.1% 21.4% 19.9% 24.6% 11.6% 10.6% 12.6% Oman 41.8% 32.8% 50.8% 9.9% 6.7% 13.5% 4.3% 2.8% 5.8% Qatar 35.3% 29.0% 41.6% 8.9% 7.1% 11.1% 4.4% 3.7% 5.1% Saudi Arabia 38.3% 9.1% 4.4% Sudan Syrian Arab Republic Tunisia 65.3% 60.7% 69.3% 19.9% 17.3% 22.4% 9.1% 7.6% 10.6% United Arab 34.3% 28.7% 39.7% 8.9% 7.9% 10.2% 4.7% 4.7% 4.6% Emirates Yemen, Rep. 94.7% 94.5% 94.8% 58.3% 71.5% 62.6% 44.2% 46.8% 41.3% MENA: Overall 59.9% 56.9% 67.0% 22.0% 22.4% 26.5% 12.8% 12.3% 14.7% MENA: High 38.8% 32.5% 47.1% 9.4% 7.7% 13.3% 4.6% 3.8% 6.4% Income MENA: Upper 38.3% 29.6% 45.8% 9.8% 6.9% 12.6% 4.5% 3.1% 5.7% middle income MENA: Lower 68.4% 63.8% 72.8% 22.4% 19.8% 25.9% 11.6% 9.6% 13.6% middle income MENA: Low income 94.7% 94.5% 94.8% 58.3% 71.5% 62.6% 44.2% 46.8% 41.3% Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 2 countries: Iran and Jordan. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 3 countries: Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. “MENA: Low Income” includes 1 country: Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are population weighted based on population figures for 10- 14 year olds for 2017. We use the July 2021 learning poverty data which can be accessed on Development Data Hub, and replication code can be found on Gituhub. We follow UNICEF’s classification of MENA countries. The reference window for aggregate calculation is centered on 2015, as described in Azevedo et al. (2021). 78 ANNEXES Table A1.2: Learning and schooling deprivation by gender Learning Deprivation Schooling Deprivation All Female Male All Female Male Algeria 66.5 64.6 68.4 - - Bahrain 30.6 21 40.2 4.12 5.09 3.19 Djibouti 2.10 1.25 2.91 Egypt, Arab Rep. 69.2 64.6 73.6 44.41 47.70 41.19 Iran, Islamic Rep. 35.1 25.4 43.6 1.36 0.82 1.87 Iraq 0.86 0.86 0.86 Jordan 50 46.7 52.8 7.68 13.40 2.27 Kuwait 49.4 43.3 56 4.00 2.76 5.19 Lebanon 3.26 1.42 4.96 Libya 16.35 19.06 13.58 Morocco 63.8 59 68.4 - - - Oman 40.9 31.9 50 5.42 5.59 5.26 Qatar 33.8 27.3 40.4 1.46 1.37 1.55 Saudi Arabia 36.7 23 49.4 2.17 2.39 1.96 Sudan 2.54 Syrian Arab 42.68 40.42 44.87 Republic Tunisia 65.1 60.6 69.2 32.77 33.48 32.09 United Arab 32.4 26 38.5 0.37 0.37 0.37 Emirates Palestinian 2.82 3.65 2.03 territories Yemen, Rep. 93.5 92.5 94.2 7.68 7.19 8.16 MENA: Overall 59.0 55.9 66.3 4.2 5.2 3.5 MENA: High Income 37.2 30.9 45.7 2.5 2.3 2.7 Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 2 countries: Iran and Jordan. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 3 countries: Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. “MENA: Low Income” includes 1 country: Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are population weighted based on population figures for 10- 14 year olds for 2017. We use the July 2021 learning poverty data which can be accessed on Development Data Hub, and replication code can be found on Gituhub. We follow UNICEF’s classification of MENA countries. The reference window for aggregate calculation is centered on 2015, as described in Azevedo et al. (2021). 79 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Table A2. Learning poverty Baseline Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic Algeria - - - - Bahrain 32.1% 36.4% 41.6% 47.3% Djibouti - - - - Egypt, Arab Rep. 69.6% 72.5% 73.2% 73.6% Iran, Islamic Rep. 35.7% 38.7% 39.9% 40.7% Iraq - - - - Jordan 52.0% 57.3% 60.5% 63.5% Kuwait 51.0% 54.5% 58.7% 62.4% Lebanon - - - - Libya - - - - Morocco 65.8% 72.1% 74.1% 76.6% Oman 41.8% 48.5% 56.1% 62.5% Qatar 35.3% 37.8% 40.7% 43.4% Saudi Arabia 38.3% 45.2% 52.2% 59.0% Sudan - - - - Syrian Arab Republic - - - - Tunisia 65.3% 71.0% 74.1% 76.9% United Arab Emirates 34.3% 37.9% 42.6% 47.5% Yemen, Rep. 94.7% 96.3% 96.6% 97.0% MENA: Overall 59.9% 63.7% 65.6% 67.3% MENA: High Income 38.8% 44.8% 51.3% 57.5% MENA: Upper Middle Income 38.3% 41.6% 43.2% 44.4% MENA: Lower Middle Income 68.4% 72.3% 73.5% 74.5% MENA: Low Income 94.7% 96.3% 96.6% 97.0% Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 2 countries: Iran and Jordan. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 3 countries: Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. “MENA: Low Income” includes 1 country: Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are population weighted based on population figures for 10-14 year olds for 2017. We use the July 2021 learning poverty data which can be accessed on Development Data Hub, and replication code can be found on Gituhub. We follow UNICEF’s classification of MENA countries. The reference window for aggregate calculation is centered on 2015, as described in Azevedo et al. (2021). 80 ANNEXES Table A3: Learning poverty gap Baseline Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic Algeria - - - - Bahrain 7.4% 8.2% 9.2% 10.3% Djibouti - - - - Egypt, Arab Rep. 23.7% 25.0% 25.3% 25.4% Iran, Islamic Rep. 8.7% 9.3% 9.6% 9.8% Iraq - - - - Jordan 15.6% 17.0% 17.9% 18.7% Kuwait 14.2% 15.0% 16.2% 17.2% Lebanon - - - - Libya - - - - Morocco 21.4% 23.8% 24.6% 25.7% Oman 9.9% 11.5% 13.3% 15.1% Qatar 8.9% 9.5% 10.1% 10.7% Saudi Arabia 9.0% 10.5% 12.0% 13.6% Sudan - - - - Syrian Arab Republic - - - - Tunisia 19.9% 22.1% 23.5% 24.8% United Arab Emirates 8.9% 9.7% 10.8% 11.9% Yemen, Rep. 58.3% 60.1% 60.5% 61.0% MENA: Overall 22.2% 23.5% 24.1% 24.7% MENA: High Income 9.4% 10.7% 12.1% 13.6% MENA: Upper Middle Income 9.8% 10.5% 10.9% 11.2% MENA: Lower Middle Income 22.9% 24.5% 25.0% 25.5% MENA: Low Income 58.3% 60.1% 60.5% 61.0% Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 2 countries: Iran and Jordan. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 3 countries: Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. “MENA: Low Income” includes 1 country: Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are population weighted based on population figures for 10- 14 year olds for 2017. We use the July 2021 learning poverty data which can be accessed on Development Data Hub, and replication code can be found on Gituhub. We follow UNICEF’s classification of MENA countries. The reference window for aggregate calculation is centered on 2015, as described in Azevedo et al. (2021). 81 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Table A4: Learning poverty severity Baseline Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic Algeria - - - - Bahrain 3.6% 3.8% 4.2% 4.5% Djibouti - - - - Egypt, Arab Rep. 12.3% 13.0% 13.1% 13.2% Iran, Islamic Rep. 3.8% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% Iraq - - - - Jordan 8.5% 9.0% 9.4% 9.7% Kuwait 7.2% 7.6% 8.0% 8.4% Lebanon - - - - Libya - - - - Morocco 11.6% 12.6% 13.0% 13.5% Oman 4.3% 4.8% 5.5% 6.2% Qatar 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 5.0% Saudi Arabia 4.4% 4.9% 5.4% 5.9% Sudan - - - - Syrian Arab Republic - - - - Tunisia 9.1% 10.1% 10.8% 11.4% United Arab Emirates 4.6% 4.9% 5.3% 5.7% Yemen, Rep. 44.2% 45.6% 46.0% 46.4% MENA: Overall 13.1% 13.8% 14.0% 14.3% MENA: High Income 4.6% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% MENA: Upper Middle Income 4.5% 4.8% 5.0% 5.1% MENA: Lower Middle Income 12.0% 12.7% 12.9% 13.2% MENA: Low Income 44.2% 45.6% 46.0% 46.4% Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 2 countries: Iran and Jordan. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 3 countries: Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. “MENA: Low Income” includes 1 country: Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are population weighted based on population figures for 10- 14 year olds for 2017. We use the July 2021 learning poverty data which can be accessed on Development Data Hub, and replication code can be found on Gituhub. We follow UNICEF’s classification of MENA countries. The reference window for aggregate calculation is centered on 2015, as described in Azevedo et al. (2021). 82 ANNEXES Table A5: Learning adjusted years of schooling (LAYS) Baseline Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic Algeria 7.09 6.93 6.87 6.78 Bahrain 9.29 8.82 8.34 7.89 Djibouti - - - - Egypt, Arab Rep. 6.53 6.21 6.14 6.10 Iran, Islamic Rep. 8.19 7.85 7.72 7.64 Iraq 4.03 3.51 3.26 3.03 Jordan 7.67 7.20 6.94 6.70 Kuwait 7.38 7.10 6.78 6.52 Lebanon 6.34 5.52 5.09 4.74 Libya - - - - Morocco 6.32 5.67 5.47 5.23 Oman 8.64 8.04 7.45 7.00 Qatar 8.78 8.46 8.15 7.88 Saudi Arabia 7.89 7.28 6.76 6.32 Sudan 4.30 3.75 3.63 3.49 Syrian Arab Republic - - - - Tunisia 6.49 5.92 5.62 5.34 United Arab Emirates 9.65 9.17 8.64 8.16 Palestinian territories 8.05 7.78 7.68 7.58 Yemen, Rep. 4.18 3.79 3.70 3.60 MENA: Overall 7.1 6.6 6.4 6.1 MENA: High Income 8.6 8.1 7.7 7.3 MENA: Upper Middle Income 6.6 6.0 5.8 5.5 MENA: Lower Middle Income 6.9 6.5 6.4 6.2 MENA: Low Income 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.5 Notes: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 4 countries: Iran, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 5 countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Palestine/ Palestinian territories. “MENA: Low Income” includes 2 countries: Sudan and Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are simple averages, and not population weighted. LAYS are similar between upper middle income and lower middle income countries, however, Iraq’s baseline LAYS is 4.0, which brings down the average for upper middle income countries. For Iraq, we do not have regionally disaggregated data for LAYS. 83 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Table A6: PISA below minimum proficiency Baseline Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic Algeria 79.0% 79.4% 79.9% 80.6% Bahrain - - - - Djibouti - - - - Egypt, Arab Rep. - - - - Iran, Islamic Rep. - - - - Iraq - - - - Jordan 41.0% 56.6% 59.8% 62.7% Kuwait - - - - Lebanon 68.0% 85.2% 88.8% 91.5% Libya - - - - Morocco 74.0% 80.8% 82.6% 84.6% Oman - - - - Qatar 51.0% 60.1% 63.8% 67.1% Saudi Arabia 53.0% 67.7% 74.0% 79.1% Sudan - - - - Syrian Arab Republic - - - - Tunisia 72.0% 80.9% 83.4% 85.6% United Arab Emirates 43.0% 51.2% 57.5% 63.3% Palestinian territories - - - - Yemen, Rep. - - - - MENA: Overall 60.1% 79.4% 79.9% 80.6% MENA: High Income 49.0% 59.6% 65.1% 69.9% MENA: Upper Middle Income 54.5% 70.9% 74.3% 77.1% MENA: Lower Middle Income 75.0% 80.4% 82.0% 83.6% MENA: Low Income NA NA NA NA Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 3 countries: Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 2 countries: Jordan and Lebanon. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 3 countries: Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia. “MENA: Low Income” includes no countries, as denoted by “NA”. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are simple averages, and not population weighted. 84 ANNEXES Table A7: Present value loss to economy lifetime earnings with adult survival and labour force participation (millions US$) Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic Algeria -5.942 M -8.223 M -11.403 M Bahrain -5.720 M -11.701 M -17.203 M Djibouti - - - Egypt, Arab Rep. -29.976 M -36.801 M -40.949 M Iran, Islamic Rep. -37.068 M -51.546 M -60.439 M Iraq -23.524 M -34.626 M -45.130 M Jordan -5.454 M -8.487 M -11.165 M Kuwait -4.139 M -8.781 M -12.591 M Lebanon -10.104 M -15.260 M -19.570 M Libya - - - Morocco -35.072 M -45.889 M -58.932 M Oman -14.485 M -28.815 M -39.747 M Qatar -5.856 M -11.447 M -16.282 M Saudi Arabia -137.376 M -254.999 M -355.461 M Sudan -12.916 M -15.802 M -19.253 M Syrian Arab Republic - - - Tunisia -11.456 M -17.483 M -22.915 M United Arab Emirates -22.204 M -46.775 M -69.167 M Palestinian territories -2.947 M -4.024 M -5.145 M Yemen, Rep. -3.562 M -4.398 M -5.340 M MENA: Overall -0.37 T 0.61 T -0.81 T MENA: High Income -0.19 T -0.36 T -0.51 T MENA: Upper Middle Income -0.08 T -0.11 T -0.14 T MENA: Lower Middle Income -0.09 T -0.11 T -0.14 T MENA: Low Income -0.02 T -0.02 T -0.02 T Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 4 countries: Iran, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 5 countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Palestine/ Palestinian territories. “MENA: Low Income” includes 2 countries: Sudan and Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are simple sums in trillions of US dollars. Sub-region aggregates are sums of values for each country in the sub-region, and the MENA total is the sum of aggregates for each sub-region. Regional and sub-regional estimates are not population weighted. Results are obtained using the expected returns to education of each country and labor market earnings from ILO (2020) and World Bank (2020), as well as the results from the LAYS simulation. We use the economic forecasts from the Global Economic Prospects June 2021 publication. Results are conditional on the country’s life expectancy, expected work life of a typical adult as well as their human capital utilization, and assume that none of these aspects will be affected by the COVID-19 crisis. The results also assume that the returns to education remain constant at 8% in the long run. See Azevedo et al. 2020 for further details about the methodology. For Iraq, we do not have regionally disaggregated data for LAYS. 85 COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa Table A8: Present value (PV) loss to lifetime earnings of a single individual (US$) Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic Algeria -1,728 -2,391 -3,315 Bahrain -34,163 -69,878 -102,734 Djibouti - - - Egypt, Arab Rep. -3,660 -4,494 -5,000 Iran, Islamic Rep. -6,552 -9,110 -10,682 Iraq -10,369 -15,263 -19,893 Jordan -10,414 -16,203 -21,317 Kuwait -9,042 -19,183 -27,508 Lebanon -22,421 -33,860 -43,424 Libya - - - Morocco -10,858 -14,206 -18,244 Oman -29,040 -57,770 -79,685 Qatar -22,198 -43,395 -61,720 Saudi Arabia -40,716 -75,577 -105,352 Sudan -4,844 -5,927 -7,221 Syrian Arab Republic - - - Tunisia -11,465 -17,496 -22,933 United Arab Emirates -25,231 -53,151 -78,595 Palestinian territories -7,033 -9,605 -12,279 Yemen, Rep. -2,348 -2,899 -3,520 MENA: Overall -14,828 -26,495 -36,672 MENA: High Income -160,389 -318,954 -455,594 MENA: Upper Middle Income -49,755 -74,437 -95,316 MENA: Lower Middle Income -34,744 -48,192 -61,772 MENA: Low Income -7,192 -8,826 -10,741 Note: “MENA: High Income” includes 6 countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates. “MENA: Upper Middle Income” includes 4 countries: Iran, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon. “MENA: Lower Middle Income” includes 5 countries: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Palestine/ Palestinian territories. “MENA: Low Income” includes 2 countries: Sudan and Yemen. “MENA: Overall” includes all the countries listed previously. Regional and sub-regional estimates are simple averages. Sub-region aggregates are averages of values for each country in the sub-region, and the MENA total is the average of aggregates for each sub-region. Regional and sub-regional estimates are not population weighted. Results are obtained using the expected returns to education of each country and labor market earnings from ILO (2020) and World Bank (2020), as well as the results from the LAYS simulation. We use the economic forecasts from the Global Economic Prospects June 2021 publication. Results are conditional on the country’s life expectancy, expected work life of a typical adult as well as their human capital utilization, and assume that none of these aspects will be affected by the COVID-19 crisis. The results also assume that the returns to education remain constant at 8% in the long run. See Azevedo et al. 2020 for further details about the methodology. For Iraq, we do not have regionally disaggregated data for LAYS. 86 ANNEXES Annex 3 Assessment types and their key differences Large-scale, system-level assessment Classroom National International Examinations Purpose To provide To provide feedback on To provide feedback To select or certify immediate the overall health of the on the comparative students as they move feedback to system at particular grade/ performance of the from one level of the inform classroom age level(s), and to monitor education system at education system to instruction trends in learning particular grade/age the next (or into the level(s) workforce) Frequency Daily For individual subjects For individual subjects Annually and more often offered on a regular basis offered on a regular where the system allows (such as every 3-5 years) basis (such as every 3-5 for repeats years) Who is All students Sample or census of A sample of students All eligible students tested? students at a particular at a particular grade or grade or age level(s) age level(s) Format Varies from Usually multiple choice and Usually multiple choice Usually essay and observation to short answer and short answer multiple choice questioning to paper-and-pencil tests to student performances Coverage of All subject areas Generally confined to a few Generally confined to Covers main subject areas curriculum subjects one or two subjects Additional Yes, as part of the Frequently Yes Seldom information teaching process collected from students? Scoring Usually informal Varies from simple to more Usually involves Varies from simple and simple statistically sophisticated statistically to more statistically techniques sophisticated sophisticated techniques techniques Source: Luna-Bazaldua et al., 2020151 151 Luna-Bazaldúa, D., Levin, D. and Liberman, J. (2020). Guidance note on using learning assessment in the process of school reopening. 87 COVID-19 Learning Losses Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa An entire generation of children in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is estimated to be affected by the education crisis determined by the COVID-19 pandemic, with potential impacts that are going beyond the immediate/short term and also well beyond the education domain itself, with consequences on children’s socialisation, mental well-being, and future perspective of being active members of their society, including in the labor market. More information on the impact of the crisis would help countries to put in place strategies to mitigate the impacts. Timely investment and action to prevent extreme impacts of this crisis on education are of paramount importance in MENA, which already tackling a learning crisis before the COVID-19 outbreak. The publication delineates the overall education status in MENA after the breakout of COVID-19 pandemic, by presenting the education responses in MENA, and assessing the potential learning loss through a simulation analysis, recommendations are provided on how to build back better and enhance access and quality learning for all. 9 789231 004940