A COUNTRY WATER ASSISTANCE STRATEGY FOR UGANDA 80172 UGANDA Water Assistance Strategy Uganda Water Assistance Strategy June 2011 THE WORLD BANK AFRICA WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT Abbreviations And Acronyms GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR July 1–June 30 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Exchange rate as of May 23, 2011 Currency Unit: Uganda Shilling (UGX) USD 1.00 = UGX 2385.00 UGX 1.00 = USD 0.00042 AAA Analytical and Advisory Assistance AFD Agence Française de Développement AfDB African Development Bank BCM Billion Cubic Meters CAS Country Assistance Strategy COMESA Common Market for East and Southern Africa CUD Cost of unmet Demand DANIDA Danish International Development Agency DP Development Partner DSIP Development Strategy and Investment Plan DWD Directorate of Water Development DWRM Directorate of Water Resources Management EAC East Africa Community EAPP East Africa Power Pool ESW Economic and Sector Work EIB European Investment Bank EU European Union GCM General Circulation Model GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GTZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit   (German Company for International Cooperation) GoU Government of Uganda GWh Gigawatt hours ha Hectares IDA International Development Association IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management iii Uganda Water Assistance Strategy JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JPF Joint Partnership Fund KfW Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau km2 Square Kilometers kWh Kilowatt Hours LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging LT Long Term LVBC Lake Victoria Basin Commission m Million m3 Cubic Meter MCM Million Cubic Meters mm Millimeter MW Megawatts MAAIF Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fisheries MDG Millennium Development Goals MEMD Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development MFPED Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development MoDPR Ministry of Disaster Preparedness and Refugees MoES Ministry of Education and Sports MWE Ministry of Water and Environment NAADS National Agricultural Advisory Services NBI Nile Basin Initiative NBTF Nile Basin Trust Fund NDP National Development Plan NEL Nile Equatorial Lakes NEMA National Environmental Management Authority NGO Non-governmental Organization NUSAF Northern Uganda Social Action Fund NWRA National Water Resources Assessment NWSC National Water and Sewerage Corporation O&M Operations and Maintenance OBA Output-based Aid PEAP Poverty Eradication Action Plan PRSC Poverty Reduction Support Credit PRSP Power Sector Reform Programme RPED Regional Program on Enterprise Development ST Short Term SIP Sector Investment Plan SWAp Sector Wide Approach to planning TA Technical Assistance TSSM Total Sanitation/Sanitation Marketing UNDP United Nations Development Program UNEP United Nations Environment Program UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNOPS United Nations Office for Project Services USAID United States Agency for International Development USD United States Dollar UGX Uganda Shilling iv UWASNET Uganda Water and Sanitation Non-governmental   Organization Network WASP Weighted Anomaly of Statistical Precipitation (Index) WB World Bank WfP Water for Production WMZ Water Management Zone WSDF Water and Sanitation Development Facility WSS Water Supply and Sanitation WSSDPG Water Supply and Sanitation Development Partners Group WSP Water and Sanitation Program WTP Willingness to Pay yr Year Vice President: Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Country Director: John McIntire Country Manager: Kundhavi Kadiresan Sector Director: Jamal Saghir Sector Manager Jonathan Kamkwalala Task Team Leader: Halla M. Qaddumi v Contents List of Figures............................................................................................................................................ xi List of Tables. .......................................................................................................................................... xiii Acknowledgements.................................................................................................................................. xv Executive Summary................................................................................................................................. xvii Uganda’s Development Challenges..........................................................................................................xvii Uganda’s Water Resource Base..................................................................................................................xvii Water Resources Availability.........................................................................................................xviii Temporal variability (including droughts and floods) and increasing water stress............... xix Trends in Water Availability and Utilization............................................................................................ xix Government’s Response............................................................................................................................... xx The World Bank Uganda Water Country Assistance Strategy (Water CAS)......................................... xx Key Findings of the Uganda Water CAS.................................................................................................... xx Developing a Program of World Bank support for Uganda’s Water Sector.......................................xxii 1. Water in Uganda’s Development Context. .......................................................................................1 Uganda’s Development Challenges.............................................................................................................. 1 Uganda’s Development Opportunities........................................................................................................ 5 The Role of Water in Uganda’s Development............................................................................................. 6 The Water Sector and Uganda’s Development Aspirations.......................................................... 6 GoU Water Reforms and Water and Related Sector Investment Plans........................................ 8 The World Bank Uganda Water Country Assistance Strategy...................................................... 9 2. Current Status and Emerging Issues in the Water Sector............................................................. 11 Uganda’s Natural Resource Base and Water Endowment.......................................................................11 Spatial Context....................................................................................................................................11 Climate................................................................................................................................................. 12 Climate Risks...................................................................................................................................... 14 Surface and Groundwater Availability and Quality..................................................................... 15 Environment....................................................................................................................................... 20 Present and Projected Water Use................................................................................................................. 21 Development Issues and Potentials in the Main Water Using Sectors.................................................. 22 Hydropower....................................................................................................................................... 22 Water for Production......................................................................................................................... 23 Water Supply and Sanitation............................................................................................................ 24 A Spatial Perspective......................................................................................................................... 25 Challenges and Opportunities Facing Water Resources Management................................................. 26 Low Water Utilization and Productivity........................................................................................ 26 vii Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Poor water infrastructure development and management......................................................... 27 Environmental degradation............................................................................................................. 27 Limited adaptation to climate variability and change................................................................. 27 Institutional and governance challenges........................................................................................ 27 Financial issues................................................................................................................................... 28 3. Actions to Respond to Challenges and Opportunities. .................................................................29 Objectives for Uganda’s Water Sector........................................................................................................ 29 Identification of Action Responses to Current Challenges and Opportunities.................................... 30 Objective 1: Improve Management of Water Resources............................................................... 31 Objective 2: Improve Service Delivery............................................................................................ 33 Overall Institutional and Governance Framework....................................................................... 38 Possible Actions at Various Scales............................................................................................................... 39 4. The Costs of Inadequate Water Management and Development.................................................41 Water Supply and Sanitation: additional cost to NWSC towns of poor source protection................ 42 Kampala water supply...................................................................................................................... 42 Bushenyi water supply...................................................................................................................... 44 Wetlands: economic costs of degradation.................................................................................................. 45 Wetlands under threat....................................................................................................................... 46 Power: cost of delayed electricity development and unreliable supply................................................ 47 The economic cost of power disruptions and services cuts......................................................... 47 Unmet electricity demand................................................................................................................ 47 Thermal power................................................................................................................................... 48 Biomass dependency......................................................................................................................... 48 Agriculture: impact of rainfall variability on agricultural productivity............................................... 48 Data...................................................................................................................................................... 49 Methodology....................................................................................................................................... 49 Results.................................................................................................................................................. 50 Impact of rainfall on crop productivity.......................................................................................... 52 5. Prioritization of Actions in Uganda’s Water Sector. ...................................................................55 Framework for Prioritization of Possible Actions..................................................................................... 55 Principles for Prioritization.............................................................................................................. 55 Applying the Prioritization Framework to Possible Actions in the Water Sector................................ 57 The More Obvious Investment Options…..................................................................................... 57 …and the more Difficult Ones…..................................................................................................... 57 6. GoU, Development Partner and World Bank Activities in Water and Related Sectors..........67 Current and Planned GoU Water and Related Sector Activities............................................................ 67 GoU Initiatives in the Water Sector................................................................................................. 67 Government Initiatives in Water-Related Sectors......................................................................... 68 Water Sector Funding........................................................................................................................ 69 Development Partner Support to the Water Sector.................................................................................. 69 Water Resources Management......................................................................................................... 70 Urban and Rural Water Supply and Sanitation............................................................................. 70 Water for Agricultural Production................................................................................................... 70 Energy.................................................................................................................................................. 70 Environmental Services..................................................................................................................... 70 viii Contents Climate Resilience/Climate Change............................................................................................... 70 Overall DP Funding........................................................................................................................... 71 World Bank Support to GoU........................................................................................................................ 71 Historical World Bank Support........................................................................................................ 71 Water Resources Management......................................................................................................... 72 Urban and Rural Water Supply and Sanitation (UWSS/RWSS)................................................. 72 Water for Agricultural Production................................................................................................... 72 Energy.................................................................................................................................................. 72 Environmental Management............................................................................................................ 74 Climate Resilience/Climate Change............................................................................................... 74 7. Priority Areas of World Bank Support for Uganda’s Water Sector. .........................................75 Identifying Priorities for World Bank Support.......................................................................................... 75 Alignment of Priority Actions with Uganda CAS Objectives................................................................. 77 Synergies between Priority Actions and Planned World Bank Projects................................................ 77 World Bank Program of support for Uganda’s Water Sector.................................................................. 77 Capacity development for effective integrated water management and development.......... 80 Investments in improved access to and delivery of water and environmental services......... 80 Rainfed farming and agricultural water management................................................................. 82 Environmental services and climate resilience.............................................................................. 82 Other water-related investments..................................................................................................... 82 References...................................................................................................................................................83 Annexes. ......................................................................................................................................................87 ANNEX A: WATER MANAGEMENT ZONES AT-A-GLANCE............................................................ 88 ANNEX B: SECTOR FACT SHEETS........................................................................................................ 101 ANNEX C: DEVELOPMENT PARTNER ACTIVITIES..........................................................................112 ANNEX D: ACTION TABLES AND ACTION CLUSTERS...................................................................114 ANNEX E: CLIMATE AND AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE IN UGANDA— MODEL SPECIFICATION, VARIABLES, SUMMARY STATISTICS.........................................119 ix List of Figures Figure 0-1: Distribution of average annual rainfall (NWRA, 2010)...............................................................xvii Figure 0-2: Current and projected water use by major sub-sectors (WfP SIP, MWE, 2009.)........................ xix Figure 0-3: Schematic of the process used to derive the Water CAS priorities.............................................xxii Figure 1-1: Map of Uganda (World Bank, 2005).................................................................................................... 1 Figure 1-2: Map of poverty in Uganda................................................................................................................... 2 Figure 1-3: Current (2008) and projected (2035) populations in large towns, small towns, and rural areas........................................................................................................................................ 3 Figure 1-4: Map of population density in Uganda............................................................................................... 4 Figure 1-5: Schematic of the process followed to develop the Uganda Water CAS...................................... 10 Figure 2-1: Major lakes and rivers in Uganda......................................................................................................11 Figure 2-2: Map of WMZs and major catchments.............................................................................................. 12 Figure 2-3: Map of the Nile River Basin............................................................................................................... 13 Figure 2-4: Average annual rainfall in Africa...................................................................................................... 14 Figure 2-5: Inter-annual precipitation in Uganda from 1901–2000 (World Bank Data)................................ 15 Figure 2-6: Average annual rainfall, and areas with a rainfall deficit.............................................................. 16 Figure 2-7: Average Annual Evaporation and Annual Rain Surplus (Adapted from NWRA, MWE 2011)................................................................................................. 16 Figure 2-8: Major floods events in Uganda since 1961....................................................................................... 17 Figure 2-9: Historic climate variability in Uganda, as captured in the WASP (Brown et al, 2008).............. 17 Figure 2-10: Annual groundwater recharge and sustainable groundwater resources (as estimated in NWRA, MWE 2011)................................................................................................ 19 Figure 2-11: 2008 and 2015 district level water stress........................................................................................... 20 Figure 2-12: Map of land cover in Uganda (NWRA, MWE 2011)...................................................................... 21 Figure 2-13: Current and project water use in Uganda by key subsectors, including Water for Production (WfP) and Water Supply and Sanitation (WSS).......................................................... 22 Figure 2-14: Annual water withdrawals as a percentage of renewable water resources in Africa............... 23 Figure 4-1: Annual water treatment chemical use for Kampala....................................................................... 43 Figure 4-2: Annual cost of water treatment chemicals for Kampala................................................................ 43 Figure 4-3: Annual incremental cost of water treatment chemicals for Bushenyi......................................... 44 Figure 4-4: Impacts of changes in rainfall on total crop output per acre......................................................... 53 Figure 5-1: Projected annual precipitation in Uganda for 2030–2049 (A2; 19 GCMs)................................... 65 Figure 6-1: World Bank IDA Distribution Chart (December 2010).................................................................. 71 Figure 7-1: Process for integrated and participatory catchment planning...................................................... 81 xi List of Tables Table 0-1: Priority areas for World Bank Support in the Water Sector............................................................xxiii Table 1-1: Links between Uganda’s National Development Plan and the water sector................................... 7 Table 2-1: Surface and groundwater availability.................................................................................................. 18 Table 2-2: Key statistics for Uganda’s WMZs........................................................................................................ 25 Table 3-1: Evolving needed actions for water resources management.............................................................. 31 Table 3-2: Evolving needed actions for service delivery...................................................................................... 33 Table 3-3: Water Management and Governance................................................................................................... 38 Table 3-4: Possible Actions at Various Spatial Scales............................................................................................ 39 Table 4-1: Determinants of agricultural productivity in Uganda: semi-parametric regression results........ 51 Table 5-1: Criteria, Illustrative Interventions/Actions and Indicators.............................................................. 56 Table 5-2: Strategic Choices in the Water Sector.................................................................................................... 58 Table 6-1: Ongoing World Bank Water-Related Lending Projects in Uganda.................................................. 73 Table 7-1: Priority areas for World Bank support to the water sector................................................................ 76 Table 7-2: Proposed World Bank water-related lending and non-lending projects in Uganda..................... 78 xiii Acknowledgements This strategy was prepared by a World Bank team, of Water and Environment; Ministry of Agriculture, comprised of Tony Garvey (Water Resources Animal Industries and Fisheries; Ministry of Specialist/Advisor, AFTWR), N.R. Harshadeep Energy and Mineral Development; and Ministry (Senior Environmental Specialist, AFTEN), Sameer of Finance, Planning and Economic Development. Kamal (Operations Analyst, AFTWR), Barbara Miller The team would also like to acknowledge the other (Lead Water Resources Management Specialist, Government agencies, Development Partners, aca- AFTWR), Halla Qaddumi (Economist, AFTWR) and demic and research institutes, the private sector and Berina Uwimbabazi (Water Resources Management non-governmental organizations who participated Specialist, AFTWR). Other key members of the team in consultations throughout the preparation of the who provided targeted input were Benoit Laplante, strategy. The generous support of the Nile Basin Moses Masiga, and James Okot Okumu. Michael Trust Fund (NBTF) is gratefully acknowledged Westphal and Oleg Nivievsky prepared background reports on (i) climate variability and change and The team would like to thank the many reviewers (ii) the impact of climate on agricultural produc- who provided valuable comments and sugges- tivity, respectively. Lauriane Cayet-Boisrobert and tions that significantly improved the quality of Hrishikesh Prakash Patel supported the team on the report, including Rita Cestti, Sanyu Lutalo and geospatial analysis and mapping. Yogita Mumssen (who served as peer reviewers) and Vahid Alavian, Asumani Guloba, R. Mukami The team was guided by John McIntire as Country Kariuki, Samuel Mutono, Harriet Nattabi, Andreas Director and Kundhavi Kadiresan as Country Rohde, and Steven Shalita (who provided comments Manager, as well as Jonathan Kamkwalala and on earlier versions of the report). Finally, the team Ashok Subramanian as Sector Managers, AFTWR. wishes to express its deep appreciation to the many members of the Uganda World Bank Country Office, Preparation of the strategy would not have been including sector specialists, who spent countless possible without the close collaboration with and hours in discussions and debates, who were more support of the Government of Uganda. We are than willing and available to engage and assist, grateful for the continued input from the Working and who shared their keen insights and warmth Group comprised of representatives of the Ministry so generously. xv Executive Summary UGANDA’S DEVELOPMENT challenges. These include alleviating infrastructure bottlenecks; increasing agricultural productivity; CHALLENGES managing land, water and other natural resources; addressing demographic challenges; and confront- Over the past 25 years, Uganda has experienced ing governance issues. sustained economic growth, supported by a pru- dent macroeconomic framework and propelled by With these challenges come enormous opportuni- consistent policy reforms. Annual Gross Domestic ties. If they are seized, Uganda will be able realize its Product (GDP) growth averaged 7.4 percent (%) vision of ‘growth, employment and socio-economic in the 2000s, compared with 6.5% in the 1990s, transformation for prosperity.’ This is the theme of but has recently fallen closer to 5%. Uganda’s eco- the National Development Plan (NDP), the coun- nomic growth has been underpinned by a struc- try’s development strategy over the next five years tural transformation. Services are now the main (2010-15). The NDP is the first in a series of six plans driver of growth, constituting 52% of GDP in 2008 intended to transform Uganda over thirty years as compared to 32% in 1990. Industry share has into a modern and prosperous economy. Promoting also increased (from 11% in 1990 to 26% in 2008), the inclusive and sustainable growth that is en- while agriculture share has decreased sharply (from shrined in the NDP requires exploiting areas of 57% in 1990 to 23% in 2008). Still, Uganda’s economy development opportunity, including in oil and large is strongly linked to the agricultural sector, which infrastructure, agriculture, natural resources, and accounts for 48% exports, employs 60% of the regional networks. population, and generates over 50% of income (UNHS, 2010). The development and management of water re- sources is intimately linked to Uganda’s continued Economic growth has enabled substantial poverty development ambitions. Water can be both a posi- reduction, with the proportion of people living in tive force—providing productive input to agricul- poverty more than halving from 56% in the 1992 to ture, industry, energy and tourism, and sustaining 23.3% in 2009. However, welfare improvements have human and environmental health—as well as a not been shared equally; there is increasing urban- destructive one—to which the devastating conse- rural inequality and inequality between regions. The quences of floods and droughts can attest. national Gini coefficient increased from 0.43 in 2006 to 0.45 in 2010, in part because Uganda’s growth path has created opportunities in urban areas of UGANDA’S WATER the center and west, while large sections in rural RESOURCE BASE areas and the north and east have been left behind (Uganda CAS, 2010). Uganda lies on the equator, wedged between the eastern and western rift valleys of Africa. It is Revitalizing economic growth and tackling persis- a land of wetlands and lakes and its surface water tent poverty will require addressing a number of is almost entirely transboundary. Because of its xvii Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Figure 0-1: Distribution of average annual rainfall (NWRA, 2010) complex geology, groundwater is substantial of Uganda’s surface water is transboundary (flow- but highly variable spatially. Rainfall occurs in a ing from or flowing to its riparian neighbors). The generally long rainy season extending from about NWRA estimates that about 88% of the Uganda’s to- March to November (averaging about 1200 mil- tal surface water resources flow out of Lake Victoria limeters per year) but potential evapotranspira- (which it shares with the other Lake Victoria Nile tion rates are equally high. The Ministry of Water riparians) into the Victoria Nile River (which it shares and Environment (MWE) has recently completed with its Nile River riparian neighbors downstream). a draft National Water Resources Assessment (NWRA) that updates some of the key facts about Uganda is in the process of building a cascade of the water sector. hydropower plants on the Victoria Nile beginning near the outlet of Lake Victoria and extending to Water Resources Availability Murchison Falls where the Victoria Nile joints Lake Albert. As the outflow of Lake Victoria (approxi- The NWRA estimates that Uganda’s total renew- mately 33 MCM) is committed to hydropower pro- able water resources are about 43 million cubic me- duction from the cascade, water resources available ters (MCM), less than was estimated in the MWE’s to develop for consumptive use consist of ground- Sector Investment Plan (SIP) in 2009. About 13% of water reserves (5.67 MCM) and the net surface water this is sustainable groundwater (5.67 MCM) and the available (4.55 MCM), which must be shared with balance is surface water (37.41 MCM). Virtually all downstream riparians. xviii Executive Summary Spatial Variability proportion to development (increased asset value) and encroachment onto flood plains—drought is The distribution of average annual rainfall more pervasive, frequent and widespread. Extreme across Uganda varies significantly, as shown in climatic variability combined with the low produc- Figure 0-1 above. Groundwater recharge and sus- tivity of predominately rain-fed farming in Uganda tainable groundwater yields show similar patterns means that food security in the country remains a of spatial variability. serious concern. About one half of all districts in Uganda experience One of the most significant consequences of high annual rainfall deficits—the difference between population growth and economic development is evapotranspiration and rainfall—ranging from the emergence of water stress over a large part of the slightly above zero to 400 mm. The dotted grid cells country. Uganda has the third highest fertility rate in Figure 1 indicate where there is a rainfall deficit, and one of the youngest populations in the world. At which could lead to depressed crop yields for rainfed an estimated 30.7 million, population has doubled in farmers particularly where soil moisture storage is the last 20 years, and it is projected to nearly double limited naturally or where poor soil management again by 2030 (reaching 60.8 million). GoU estimates has degraded soil quality (a major problem in many that almost three-fourths of districts will experience parts of Uganda). high (water available between 500 and 1000 m3/ person) or extreme (less than 500 m3/person) water Temporal variability and increasing stress. Although the estimates can be questioned, water stress they highlight the general mismatch between water resources availability and water use in the country. The frequency of rainfall anomalies below normal (or long-term annual average) is significantly great- TRENDS IN WATER AVAILABILITY er than the frequency of rainfall anomalies higher than normal. Although reported flood damages AND UTILIZATION are higher than drought damages for a number of The most recent estimates of current and future reasons—including that flood damages rise in rough water use indicate that total water use will triple Figure 0-2: Current and projected water use by major sub-sectors (WfP SIP, MWE, 2009) Current (2008) Water Use Predicted (2035) Water Use (Demand gures in million m3/year) (Demand gures in million m3/year) Total Demand: 707 million m3/year Total Demand: 2113 million m3/year xix Uganda Water Assistance Strategy from 797 MCM per year to 2,133 MCM per year, as cornerstone of the MWE’s strategy is to devolve summarized in Figure 0-2 above. By 2035, water use planning and water management to the catchment will constitute about a fifth of net water availability level within an institutional and geographical frame- (i.e. net of water committed to hydropower in the work of water management zones (WMZs). WMZs Victoria Nile River). However, as noted previously, are largely delineated along catchment boundaries water resources are unevenly distributed across and will be the platform for participatory and inte- the country. grated water resources planning, management and development at the catchment and WMZ levels. As Projections for 2035 indicate that use of water the process of establishing WMZs quickly advances, for agriculture is expected to double, as seen in MWE is concurrently laying the foundation for pre- Figure 0-2. However, the percentage of total water paring a National Water Strategy in collaboration use by agriculture declines from 48% to 32% because with all concerned Ministries (and beginning with of the high growth in drinking water use in rural the National Water Resources Assessment). areas, small towns, cities, and fisheries. In each of these areas, water use is projected to increase by THE WORLD BANK UGANDA between 4 and 5 times. WATER COUNTRY ASSISTANCE These estimates demonstrate that a growing STRATEGY (WATER CAS) Ugandan economy and population will require more water in the future. Since many parts The Uganda Water Country Assistance Strategy of Uganda could experience increasing water (Water CAS) aims to assist the GoU in identifying stress, water resources must be used more pro- priority actions for building on successful outcomes, ductively and efficiently than at present. The NDP tackling remaining challenges, and exploiting op- reflects this need by placing emphasis on produc- portunities in Uganda’s water sector. The objective tive investment in water for agriculture, fisher- of the Water CAS is to define the World Bank’s stra- ies, livestock, hydropower (and possibly thermal tegic role in supporting GoU to better manage and power), drinking water, and industry (including develop its water resources. The recommendations agro-processing). of the Water CAS are complementary to the World Bank Uganda Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) Increasing pressures on the water resource base are 2011–15 priorities for Uganda and consistent with taking place in a setting where natural resources, the country’s development objectives as defined including wetlands and forests, are being degraded in the NDP and water and related sector plans and at an alarming rate. Wetland areas have decreased strategies, which form the foundation of the World by about 17% between 1964 and 2005, from an es- Bank Uganda CAS. timated 32,000 km2 to about 26,640 km2. This is a serious concern not only in terms of impacts on rich KEY FINDINGS OF THE UGANDA ecological resources, but also loss of important wet- WATER CAS land functions such as natural drainage and water quality improvement. Studies document a dramatic A review of surface and groundwater resource decline in Uganda’s forested area, with about 27% availability and current and emerging water of forest cover lost between 1990 and 2005 (over 1.3 use trends in the major water-dependent sectors million hectares). (water supply and sanitation, hydropower, agri- culture and environment) leads to the following GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE key findings. In 2005, the Government adopted an integrated Improving the utilization and productivity of water resources management (IWRM) approach Uganda’s water is a major challenge. Uganda’s as part of its water sector reform program. The water resources remain largely under-utilized in xx Executive Summary all water-dependent sectors including agriculture, Uganda is already subject to significant climate hydropower, and water supply and sanitation. Low variability, particularly in the large drought and utilization of water resources for productive and flood-prone regions around Mt. Elgon and in wet- consumptive use—and uncontrolled degradation lands. The impacts of hydrologic extremes will be of water bodies—has undermined the country’s exacerbated with continued watershed degrada- economic growth and negatively impacted on live- tion, wetland loss, population growth, and para- lihoods and the environment. The Government’s doxically economic growth as higher-value assets approach has been primarily along conventional are impacted. The capacity to cope with existing supply-driven lines that have not worked well in climate risks is poor. Climate change is expected the past. Water use productivity is also low in eco- to further alter hydrology and water demands, nomic terms. Improving the economic productivity threatening the resource base necessary to provide per unit of water used will require investments not desired water services and pointing to the need for just in water use efficiency, but also in a number of additional adaptation. complimentary measures. There is a substantial—and growing—gap between The ability of people to adapt and innovate is the limited financial resources and the significant evident everywhere in Uganda, despite the al- investment needs in water resources management most total lack of technology and infrastructure. and service delivery improvements. Despite the Nevertheless, the state of existing water infrastruc- acknowledged importance of Uganda’s water sector, ture—for example the important valley tanks, ponds the percent of GoU national budget allocated to the and small reservoirs vital for livestock, fisheries, sector has been continually decreasing, from 4.9% drinking water and small scale irrigation—is poor, in fiscal year 2004/5 to 2.2% in fiscal year 2009/10. largely because of the lack of sustained maintenance. Insufficient financing of new investments is exacer- The lesson here is the same as elsewhere: unless bated by poor sustainability of existing investments people have a sense of ownership, participate in due to inadequate revenue collection, poor financial the planning and implementation of infrastruc- management and insufficient budgetary allocations ture schemes, and receive the necessary skills and for needed O&M expenses. This challenge can be met technical support, a poor record of infrastructure by improving prioritization of new and existing in- performance will continue. frastructure for investments through a participatory planning process, improving efficiency of physical Continued environmental degradation is costly in (e.g. non-revenue water) and institutional systems, economic, social and resource terms. Changes in improving revenue collection and reducing subsi- land cover and pollution pose serious threats to the dies (where appropriate), and promoting innovative environment and natural resource base of the coun- Public-Private Partnerships and user management. try. Watersheds are being rapidly degraded by defor- estation (at a rate of over 2% per year) and cultivation Uganda has established a generally sound legal and of marginal lands, and are under particular threat regulatory base for water resources management from conversion to urban and agricultural uses. and development, and has implemented significant Wetlands cover an estimated 11% of the country institutional reforms in the water sector but more and the volume of water annually stored is roughly remains to be done. The Water Act (1997) provides half of the total water available in the country. Thus, the overarching legal framework for the use, protec- their continued degradation threatens the sustain- tion and management of water resources, while the ability of Uganda’s water resource base. Pollution GoU’s guiding policy objectives for water resources from increasing urbanization and industrialization are spelled out in the National Water Policy (1999). is threatening several areas such as Murchison Bay The MWE has undertaken a Water Integrity Scan, (the source of Kampala’s water supply) and poses an which has led to an Action Plan on Good Governance increasing threat to public health, tourism, fisheries, that is now under implementation. However, ad- and asset values. dressing institutional issues will remain a major chal- xxi Uganda Water Assistance Strategy lenge, particularly given the large number of actors begins with a detailed review of the facts describ- involved in water management and development. ing the present status and important trends and Key needs will be to clearly define roles and respon- constraints in each sector and with respect to surface sibilities and to create mechanisms for coordination, water, groundwater and climate resilience (Chapter collaboration, data sharing, and consensus building. 2). The facts are analyzed to identify their strategic The foundation for all of these is adequate capacity to implications and the possible actions that could plan, regulate and carry out the required functions. be undertaken to address those implications. This process yields over 90 actions, which are analyzed Establishing the institutional, informational and individually and in various combinations (Chapter analytical means to develop integrated water man- 3). The implications of not undertaking needed ac- agement and investment plans is the central task tions to improve water management and service moving forward, based on the current and future delivery, could be significant (Chapter 4) as shown trends. Effective and integrated water management through several case studies. and development at the catchment level is needed to avoid and mitigate conflict (which is already re- The actions are then considered in light of a priori- ported as the number one problem in half of the eight tization framework comprising a set of criteria. The priority catchments reviewed by the Ministry) and criteria—related to sustainability (economic, social to ensure that natural resource use is sustainable and and environmental) and scale of impact (growth- stimulates and supports widely shared economic oriented or poverty targeted)—are used to judge the growth, as opposed to becoming a constraint and degree to which specific actions contribute to meet- bottleneck to development. ing the key objectives of improved water resources management and service delivery (Chapter 5). DEVELOPING A PROGRAM OF From a preliminary analysis applying the prioriti- WORLD BANK SUPPORT FOR zation framework, some actions emerge as “more UGANDA’S WATER SECTOR obvious� while others emerge as more “more diffi- cult� options. “More obvious� options are those that, In the Uganda Water CAS, a systematic process is broadly speaking, contribute to all criteria. These typi- applied to derive the specific priorities for World cally are actions that can be taken in the short-term Bank engagement in Uganda’s water sector, as with assurance that the development path or direction depicted in the schematic below (Figure 0-3). This is sound. Meanwhile, “more difficult� choices are Figure 0-3: Schematic of the process used to derive the Water CAS priorities Facts: Analysis of Facts: Water Resources to determine Water Utilization Strategic Implications FILTER POSSIBLE World ACTIONS Bank Development Priority Objectives & Possible Actions • Ongoing & Planned Action Criteria Projects & Operations Areas • GOU, DPs, WB (ST/LT) • Actions that satisfy all criteria Prioritization (obvious options) Framework • Actions about which there are di cult choices xxii Executive Summary those that do not have a uniformly high impact on all The degree to which actions are already addressed criteria; when variations on the option are considered, by ongoing Government, Development Partner the choices amongst these variations typically involve (DP) and World Bank projects and programs is tradeoffs. Frequently these are strategic choices that used to filter the possible actions (Chapter 6). shape the future structure of water development and About two-thirds of the proposed actions may not management in the country. A number of the “more be fully addressed by ongoing GoU, DP or World difficult� choices—related to water for agriculture, Bank activities. Of these, there are several actions hydropower, adapting to climate variability and where critical gaps remain, and where the World change, wetland management, water supply and Bank is well placed to provide timely support over sanitation, and others—are discussed in Chapter 5. the next five years. Table 0-1: Priority areas for World Bank Support in the Water Sector 4Is Action Clusters Menu of Actions 1. Develop comprehensive • Upgraded real-time Hydro-met system for Uganda Knowledge Base and Analysis • Develop a good groundwater knowledge base in call districts • Improve wetland knowledge base to support wetland management programs • Extend surface water, groundwater (level and monitoring) networks, including water quality Information 2. Undertake Special Studies • Understand key risks in rain-fed agriculture, and functionality of WfP facilities • Public Expenditure Review of Water Sector • Valuation of water in relevant sectors • Study of key issues at water supply sources • Study potential negative impacts of oil exploitation and development • Risk management and flood path surveys 3. Modernize Relevant • Modernize DWRM, NWSC and DWD for Water Management and Service Delivery and set up strong Institutions WMZ institutions • Improve coordination, data sharing, joint planning exercises across agencies (including MoDPR, MEMD, MAAIF) Institutions • Support implementation of water governance plan 4. Strengthen Planning and • Develop catchment management and development plans Management Activities • Explore water-related development—including storage, hydropower investments/operations and WfP facilities—in IWRM context • Mainstream climate resilience into existing and future investments • Strengthen afforestation, wetland management, soil/water conservation programs 5. Strengthen Policy and • Review and update existing water policy and legislative framework Instruments Regulatory Framework 6. Introduce Policy Instruments • Explore Payment for Environmental Services for water supply source protection • Explore and make further use of PPPs and OBAs (DWD) and innovative institutional arrangements (NWSC) 7. Develop Asset • Develop and Improve Asset Management System, including water supply sources and rehabilitation Management System of select urban systems • Undertake activities to reduce Non-Revenue water Infrastructure • Develop and monitor O&M Plans 8. Prepare, Finance, and • Identify and implement appropriate investments in urban and rural water supply and sanitation Implement prioritized • Identify and implement appropriate investments in select water-related sectors investments • Promote rainwater harvesting under appropriate conditions • Implement source protection programs xxiii Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Possible areas for World Bank support are grouped harmonization across water-related agencies; into eight Action Clusters that are summarized and strengthening integrated planning activities in Table 0-1 above. These priority action clusters within and across water-dependent sectors, and (Chapter 7) exploit the Bank’s comparative advan- better incorporating climate risks, in particular tages, are aligned with the strategic objectives of by supporting a participatory integrated plan- the Uganda CAS, and cover all of the major water ning approach at the water management zone and related sectors, including water resources and catchment levels. management, climate resilience, water supply and sanitation, water for agriculture, hydropower, and • Investments in improved access and delivery environmental services. Implementing these actions of water and environmental services, includ- will require adjustments to ongoing and pipeline ing targeted interventions in urban water World Bank projects to exploit synergies, new lend- supply and sanitation in large towns (outside ing operations, technical assistance, and analytical of Kampala) and small towns, coupled with work. They are estimated to cost in the order of USD measures to protect water supply sources 150–300 million over the next five years and improve utility performance; a sub-sector review and analysis to support expansion and World Bank priorities in Uganda’s water sector improvement of functional rural water supply outlined above constitute a comprehensive and and sanitation; support to improving productiv- integrated program that establishes the enabling ity in rain-fed agriculture through agricultural institutional, infrastructural and analytical plat- water management, soil and water conservation, form for GoU to effectively implement integrated and exploring the potential use of supplemental water resources management, improve productiv- groundwater; wetlands and catchment manage- ity and service delivery, and reduce vulnerability ment programs; targeted interventions to help to water shocks. build knowledge base and analytical tools for mainstreaming climate resilience into existing There are two broad thrusts: and future investments; other related infra- structure—including possibly multi-purpose • Capacity development for effective water man- storage reservoirs including for flood manage- agement and development, including developing ment, mini/micro hydropower generation, and a comprehensive knowledge base and required rainwater harvesting for agriculture—that are analytical capacity; supporting key studies to identified and implemented within an integrated fill critical gaps; strengthening institutional planning framework that includes all stakehold- capacity for effective water sector develop- ers and follows catchment boundaries to ensure ment and management, including institutional longer-run sustainability. modernization and improved coordination and xxiv 1 Water in Uganda’s Development Context Figure 1-1: Map of Uganda (World Bank, 2005) IBRD 31193 30° 35° 0 50 100 150 KILOMETERS 5° 5° 0 50 100 MILES S U D A N To Juba Moyo Kaabong er Kitgum Pag Ni er t To Aba Arua le Alb UGANDA Ora O ko k Gulu Ac Moroto Pakwach hw K E N Y A a To DEM. Bunia Lira R E P. O F Al be rt A U G A N DSoroti e Masindi k CONGO La Hoima L. Kyoga Kafu N ku si Lu go Vic to Mbale go N il e Fort Mbulamuti r ia Portal Tororo To Bombo Iganga Mubende ROADS Beni Jinja To Eldoret SELECTED TOWNS AND CITIES Ka ton ga Mityana Kasese KAMPALA NATIONAL CAPITAL Entebbe To Kisumu 0° 0° INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES L. George Masaka RIVERS Lake Mbarara Edward This map was produced by the The map at this site is Lake Map Design Unit of The World Bank. for reference only and is Kabale Ka The boundaries, colors, denominations ge Victoria not sanctioned for use in ra and any other information shown on this any World Bank Group L. To Bukoba map do not imply, on the part of The document. Contact the Kivu World Bank Group, any judgment on Map Design Unit for the To TANZ ANIA the legal status of any territory, or any acquisition of maps to Kigali endorsement or acceptance of such be used in World Bank Group documents. R WA N D A boundaries. 30° 35° NOVEMBER 2005 UGANDA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES Over the past 25 years, Uganda has experienced sustained economic growth, supported by a prudent macroeconomic framework and pro- pelled by consistent policy reforms. Annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaged 7.4 percent  (%) in the 2000s, compared with 6.5% in the 1990s. However, since 2009, growth has remained sup- pressed as exogenous shocks weighed down economic activity (e.g., conflicts and unrest in neighboring countries, surges in fuel and oil prices, and climatic variability). Although real GDP growth recovered in FY10/11 to 6.7% from 5.9% in the previous year, it is expected to slow down to about 5% in FY11/12. 1 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Uganda’s economic growth has been underpinned 23.3% in 2009. However, welfare improvements have by a structural transformation. Services are now the not been shared equally; there is increasing urban- main driver of growth, constituting 52% of GDP in rural inequality and inequality between regions. The 2008 as compared to 32% in 1990. Industry share has national Gini coefficient increased from 0.43 in 2006 also increased (from 11% in 1990 to 26% in 2008), to 0.45 in 2010, in part because Uganda’s growth while agriculture share has decreased sharply (from path has created opportunities in urban areas of the 57% in 1990 to 23% in 2008). Still, Uganda’s economy center and west, while large sections in rural areas is strongly linked to the agricultural sector, which ac- and the north and east were left behind (Uganda counts for 48% of exports, employs 60% of the popu- CAS, 2010). In particular, northern Uganda which lation, and generates over 50% of income (UNHS, is a post-conflict area has, by far, the highest rate of 2009/10). Consistent with structural transformation, poverty at 46% (Figure 1-2). production has become spatially concentrated, with modern sector economic activity geographically Revitalizing economic growth and tackling persis- clustered around large towns (Kampala, Entebbe tent poverty will require addressing a number of and Jinja) and along transport corridors. challenges. These include alleviating infrastructure bottlenecks; increasing agricultural productivity; Economic growth has enabled substantial poverty addressing demographic challenges; managing land, reduction, with the proportion of people living in water and other natural resources; and confronting poverty more than halving from 56% in the 1992 to governance issues. Figure 1-2: Map of poverty in Uganda 2 Water in Uganda’s Development Context Infrastructure Bottlenecks: Inadequate infrastruc- has doubled in the last 20 years, and it is projected to ture is a binding constraint to economic growth and nearly double again by 2030 (reaching 60.8 million). accelerated structural transformation in Uganda. Uganda is and will remain a predominantly rural Lack of transport connectivity is a rising concern as country, as shown in Figure 1-3. Uganda has one of it is key to improved market access and mobility of the lowest extents of urbanization in Africa (15% of labor. A particular challenge is the secondary and total population is urban versus 40% in Africa), and tertiary network, particularly rural roads, which are its rate of urbanization is barely half of the African in extremely poor condition where they exist at all. average. By 2035, about three-fourths of the popula- Opportunities for developing hydropower, as well tion (a total of about 53 million people) is expected as other renewables, are being taken up at a slow to live in rural areas. However, urban growth is but steady pace, and access to electricity is a par- high, at 5.9% per annum and is concentrated in just ticular problem in rural areas. Poor and unreliable a few large towns (particularly Kampala). The urban electricity carries a huge cost to industry, and limits population is expected to almost triple by 2035. the range of technologies available to the rural and agricultural sectors (especially small-scale irrigation, Demographic trends and urbanization pose many water supply and agro-processing technologies). challenges to the country, including difficulties in Municipal infrastructure will be required to keep keeping pace with the increasing demand for social pace with the rising number of urban dwellers, as services and managing the urban environment. well as commercial and industrial concerns. Urban services are already inadequate and quickly becoming an economic bottleneck. For example, Poor Agricultural Productivity: As noted above, despite improved access to safe water supplies in cit- agriculture’s share in the economy has significantly ies and large towns (the average across large towns decreased over time, but the sector is still a key is 73%), access to sanitation and sewerage services driver of economic growth, and critical for poverty is low. Many households rely on on-site systems, reduction and food security. The sector’s growth rate and sewerage coverage is available to only 5% of has remained low since 2003, barely reaching a high of 2% in 2008. Weak performance is related to sev- Figure 1-3: Current (2008) and projected (2035) eral exogenous factors (e.g., low prices for key cash populations in large towns, small towns, crops that dominate the sector). However, declining and rural areas agricultural productivity is a primary contributing factor. A recent study found that over the last fifteen 60 years total factor productivity in agriculture was negative, and that increases in output were due to 50 area expansion rather than intensification and pro- Population (millions) ductivity growth (Zorya et al, 2010). Reasons include 40 declining soil fertility, an almost complete reliance 30 on rainfall and inability to compensate for seasonal and monthly variability, land tenure insecurity, 20 and poor market access. The effects are significant, including that food insecurity was estimated to af- 10 fect two thirds of Uganda’s population in 2005/6 (UNHS, 2005/6). 0 Large Small Rural Demographic Trends and Urbanization: Uganda (NWSC) (DWD) Areas has the third highest fertility rate (6.7 births per Towns Towns woman according to government data) and one of the youngest populations in the world (Uganda 2008 2035 (Projected) CAS, 2010). At an estimated 30.7 million, population 3 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy the urban population in large towns. Some towns, However, rampant environmental degradation and including large ones (e.g., Kampala), have reached depletion of natural resources could jeopardize 70–90% capacity utilization. Investments are needed Uganda’s growth prospects. It is estimated that 27% to ensure adequate water supply given high urban of Uganda’s forest cover was lost between 1990 and population growth rates. Smaller towns and rural 2005, and at current rates, woodlands will disappear areas have also seen improvements in access to ser- within 30 years. Meanwhile 73% of Ugandans use vices, but the rate at which coverage is increasing is firewood for cooking (UNHS, 2009/10). Wetlands far lower than required (refer Annex B). Some towns are also being destroyed at an alarming rate, par- have begun to experience a decline in coverage levels ticularly due to conversion near urban areas and as existing water sources are outstripped by demand. for agriculture in seasonal wetlands. According to some estimates, wetland area decreased by as much Environmental degradation and natural resource as 17% by 2005 (UNDP/NEMA/UNEP, 2009). Both depletion: Uganda is richly endowed with land, surface and groundwater quality are deteriorating. water and other natural resources, and its economy Expansion of land under agriculture—which has sus- and people are largely dependent on exploitation of tained agricultural growth in the past, as explained the natural resource base. Agriculture and fish are above—is placing pressure on national parks and the predominant traditional exports, and tourism is preserves on which the tourism economy is based. becoming increasingly important. An estimated 90% of Uganda’s population relies on natural resources Finally, the recent discovery of oil brings opportuni- and the environment for their livelihoods. ties for economic development, but also challenges. Figure 1-4: Map of population density in Uganda 4 Water in Uganda’s Development Context Discovered oil fields are located in the Albertine Government of Uganda (GoU) has indicated its Rift, which is one of the most ecologically sensitive commitment to use a substantial part of these funds and biodiverse parts of the country and includes to finance major infrastructure investments in a bid key national parks that are important for the tour- to alleviate many of the ‘binding constraints’ that ism industry. create economic bottlenecks, including in electricity, transportation and water. Governance Issues: Recent studies have found high inefficiencies and wastage of public finance in Whether the development of oil is a blessing or a a number of sectors (e.g., recent Public Expenditure curse depends on a number of factors, including Reviews of Health and Education, Report on the institutional framework in place to distribute Environmental Governance in Uganda). There are resource rents, and consideration of economic, social frequent reports of misuse of funds, and corruption and environmental issues. From a water manage- at all levels is increasingly pervasive. Uganda is ment point of view, oil exploration and production ranked 130th out of 180 countries in Transparency activities could contaminate large water bodies and International’s 2009 Corruption Perception Index, threaten the populations and activities that rely on below many African countries. Waste and corruption them. The need to better understand the potential threaten to undermine the quality and effectiveness negative impacts of oil exploitation and put in of infrastructure investments, productive services place measures to minimize them has been noted such as agriculture, and social services (Uganda elsewhere, and remains a concern. CAS, 2010). Promoting agricultural productivity and commer- UGANDA’S DEVELOPMENT cialization: Uganda has a comparative advantage in agriculture, and significant potential that has as yet OPPORTUNITIES not been fully tapped. There are enormous opportu- nities to increase agricultural productivity, promote With these challenges come enormous opportunities. production in currently lagging areas with high If they are seized, Uganda will be able realize its vi- potential (specifically the North), and support the sion of ‘growth, employment and socio-economic transition from predominantly subsistence farming transformation for prosperity.’ This is the theme of to commercial agriculture. Indeed, a recent World the National Development Plan (NDP), the coun- Bank study found that the prospects for agricultural try’s development strategy over the next five years development in Uganda are as good, or better, than (2010-15). The NDP is the first in a series of six plans they were in Asia and Latin America during their intended to transform Uganda over thirty years ‘agricultural revolutions.’ This is due to a number into a modern and prosperous economy. Promoting of exogenous factors including accelerated growth the inclusive and sustainable growth that is en- and rapid urbanization in Africa, the end of the price shrined in the NDP requires exploiting areas of decline for agricultural commodities, and the greater development opportunity, including in oil and large availability of improved technological opportunities infrastructure, agriculture, natural resources, and (Zorya et al, 2010). regional networks. Agriculture is therefore given prominence in the Benefiting from sustainable oil development and NDP, as a key sector for growth, exports, employ- large infrastructure: The discovery of commercially ment and food security, and as critical to provid- viable oil reserves is the most important economic ing the basis for growth in other sectors such as development opportunity facing Uganda today. Oil manufacturing and services. GoU is committed to could generate an estimated USD 2 billion per year in boosting agricultural production and productivity new revenues at peak production levels, potentially by increasing agro-processing and strengthening doubling government revenue within 6–10 years, policies and institutions. Irrigation rehabilitation and constituting an estimated 10–15% of GDP. The and extension is identified as a ‘national flagship 5 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy project,’ one that should focus on promoting high Uganda is expected to join the East Africa Power value, export oriented crops. Pool (EAPP), which promotes regional integration of power, transmission and generation systems. Sustainably managing the rich natural resource It is a shareholder of the East African Railway base: Uganda is blessed with an exceptionally rich Corporation, which plans to extend railway access natural resource base that can continue to provide to neighbouring Rwanda and Burundi. It has been a wealth of economic, social and environmental a member of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) since its services if managed wisely. The environmental inception in 1999. The NBI seeks to cooperatively trends described above are not irreversible. Indeed, manage and develop the shared water resources of relative to many countries in the world, environ- the Nile Basin for the benefit of all riparian countries. mental problems in Uganda are less pervasive and Finally, Uganda is party to the Lake Victoria Basin the ‘mistakes’ of the past are more innocuous and Commission, which operates under the auspices of easily undone. There is a sound legal and regulatory the EAC and was established as a regional mecha- framework for environmental management, but it nism for coordinating development and manage- is not adequately enforced. Enforcement alone ment initiatives in the basin. could go a long way towards halting and reversing recent trends. THE ROLE OF WATER IN UGANDA’S GoU has recognized the importance of prudent DEVELOPMENT natural resource management for sustaining produc- The Water Sector and Uganda’s tivity in agriculture, industry and fisheries, as well Development Aspirations as supporting the as yet nascent tourism industry. The latter, in particular, holds significant poten- The development and management of water re- tial. Uganda’s rich biodiversity, extensive wildlife sources is intimately linked to Uganda’s continued habitat, and numerous national parks and protected ambitions for inclusive and sustainable growth as areas are important eco-tourism assets. Tourism enshrined in Uganda’s National Development Plan (and primarily eco-tourism) is already growing at a (NDP). Water can be both a positive force—provid- rapid pace—tourist arrivals grew by 56% from 2004 ing productive input to agriculture, industry, energy to 2008, and contributed about 9.2% of the GDP in and tourism, and sustaining human and environ- 2008—and could become even more significant to mental health—as well as a destructive one—to Uganda’s economy with increased accessibility, which the devastating consequences of floods and improved facilities, and careful management of the droughts can attest. natural resource base. Water is a cross-cutting issue that can contribute to Seizing the opportunities of regional integration: the achievement of many of the NDP’s eight broad Uganda has taken steps towards regional integra- objectives. Some key links between select NDP tion in a number of arenas, from trade to power to objectives and the water sector are shown in Table water. It is a member of the Common Market for 1-1 below. East and Southern Africa (COMESA), as well as the East African Community (EAC), which aims In addition to the general objectives above that relate to deepen and widen political and economic coop- to the water sector, the NDP has also identified three eration amongst member countries. To this end, the specific objectives for water resources management EAC established a Customs Union in 2005 and as and development: working towards the establishment of a Common Market, Monetary Union, and ultimately a Political • Ensure that Uganda fully utilizes its water Federation of the East Africa States. With a view resources for development and guarantees to expanding trade opportunities, the EAC is also water security; working towards regional infrastructure integration. 6 Water in Uganda’s Development Context Table 1-1: Supporting role of the Water Sector in achieving key National Development Plan (NDP) Objectives Objective: Uplift household standards of living Effective development and management of water sources can increase the supply of clean and safe water to people and livestock, thereby reduc- ing morbidity and mortality from water-borne diseases including cholera, typhoid and hepatitis B. This will lead to improved health and household standards of living. Effective flood management can also make a contribution, as risks of water-borne diseases increase significantly during flood peri- ods. The problem of poor sanitation and hygiene exacts the highest toll on the poorest segments of society in both rural and urban areas. Investing in sanitation could bring substantial returns and reduce costs in other sectors, including the curative health sector. There is evidence that points to the increased effectiveness of education for children who are healthy, and the increased attendance at schools with improved hygiene and sanitation facilities. Agricultural development for growth (e.g. irrigation development and commercial agriculture) and for poverty reduction (e.g. improved soil and water management in rain-fed areas) is critically dependent on availability of reliable water resources. Objective: Enhance the quality and availability of gainful employment Ensuring sufficient and reliable supplies of water to be used as a raw material for processing, cooling, cleaning, blending, etc. in many types of manu- facturing and processing industries (especially agro-processing and pharmaceutical sectors), as well as in mining and service sectors, can stimulate the growth of businesses and employment. Protection of aquatic ecosystems and natural water bodies ensures that they can be used for recreation/tourism and various forms of self-employment including horticulture, food vending, etc. Objective: Improving stock and quality of economic infrastructure Climate variability and frequent floods and droughts have severe consequences for the country’s economic infrastructure, disrupting the road network and leading to shortfalls in drinking water supply and hydroelectric power. In the longer run, hydrologic uncertainty acts as a disincentive to growth- enhancing investments. Addressing these risks through flood preparedness and management can help maintain the stock and quality of Uganda’s infrastructure. Furthermore, integrated water resources management initiatives can ensure that there is accurate and up-to-date water resources data that can facilitate the planning of population centers and major infrastructure like road and rail networks and water piers/ports. Objective: Develop efficient, innovative and internationally competitive industries A key ‘binding constraint’ to Ugandan industrial growth is the poor supply of electricity, yet development of the main source of electricity in the coun- try, i.e., hydropower, is not keeping up with demand. Hydropower is the least cost energy expansion path for Uganda, and future expansion of small and large hydropower capacity is planned. Optimization of hydropower generation through appropriate water release policies will result in low-cost power supply, thereby making industries more competitive internationally. Strengthening regulation of water use and water quality will provide an incentive for industries to adopt international best-practice operations mea- sures to improve water use efficiency, while also reducing water pollution and thereby providing spill-over effects into other water-dependent sectors. Objective: Develop and optimally exploit the national resources base and ensure environmental and economic sustainability Water resources management and catchment protection initiatives can be tailored to ensure sustainable exploitation of natural resources including water. Environmental and economic sustainability can be enhanced through catchment protection and effective implementation of Uganda’s environ- mental/water laws and regulations. Objective: Strengthen good governance and improve human security A participatory and multi-stakeholder approach to water resources management can help to consolidate good governance in water-related sectors. Equitable allocation of water between communities and sectors (e.g. drinking, livestock rearing, industry, etc) can minimize competition and conflicts between communities and sectors. Involvement in transboundary water programs, such as the Lake Victoria Basin Commission and the NBI, will promote cooperative management and development of shared waters, strengthen integration and improve water governance—all of which are essential for Uganda’s water security. 7 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy • Ensure sustainable utilization of water re-sourc- To contribute to the national objectives stipulated es to maximize benefits for present and future in the NDP, Sector Investment Plans (SIPs) setting generations; and out key sector priorities have been prepared in wa- ter and related sectors. The Ministry of Water and • Support the sustainable exploitation of water Environment (MWE) Water and Sanitation Sector resources for economic activities. Investment Plan serves as the basis for all national water programs for the period 2009 to 2014. Priorities It is clear that the water sector has a key role to in the Water and Sanitation Sector Investment Plan play in achieving several objectives in Uganda’s broadly include: development plan, as well as NDP priorities that include addressing infrastructure bottlenecks, • Provision of sustainable urban and rural water increasing agricultural productivity and value ad- supply and sanitation facilities; dition, reintegrating northern Uganda, managing urbanization, and strengthening the human capital • Provision and effective use of ‘Water for base. However, immediate challenges—as well Production’ facilities that serve multiple uses, as emerging challenges related to the high rate of including agriculture, livestock, fisheries and population growth, climate change, environmental rural industry; and degradation and weak governance—will need to be addressed. • Integrated and sustainable water resources management. GoU Water Reforms and Water and Related Sector Investment Plans SIPs in water-related sectors include Agriculture and Energy (the environment sector does not currently In response to the growing pressures and in rec- have a SIP). The Ministry of Agriculture Animal ognition of the need to manage and develop the Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF) in consultation with full potential of its water resources, GoU has taken key stakeholders in the agricultural sector prepared steps since 2003 to reform the water sector. The re- a (revised) Development Strategy and Investment forms include adopting integrated water resources Plan (DSIP) for 2010–2015. The Agriculture DSIP management (IWRM) principles; introducing a (2010–2015) plans to put agriculture on the path to decentralized catchment-based water management irreversible transformation. It constitutes a “road approach by establishing four Water Management map� expected to guide public action and invest- Zones (WMZs); incorporating transboundary con- ments in the agricultural sector over the next five cerns into national water resources planning; and years, with a vision of developing ‘A Competitive, establishing mechanisms to improve coordination Profitable and Sustainable Agricultural Sector.’ and collaboration across various water and environ- Development objectives for the agricultural sector ment departments and across key ministries (e.g., include: (i) increasing rural incomes and livelihoods agriculture and energy). and (ii) improving household food and nutrition security. The investments under the DSIP have These reforms complement Uganda’s generally been packaged under four programs representing sound legal and regulatory base for water resources the key areas of opportunity: (i) enhancing produc- management and development. The Water Act tion and productivity; (ii) improving access and (1997) provides the overarching legal framework sustainability of markets; (iii) creating an enabling for the use, protection and management of water environment; and (iv) institutional development in resources and water supply. Several regulations the agricultural sector. give effect to legal instruments. The GoU’s guiding policy objectives for water resources are spelled out In order to address the challenges facing Uganda’s in the National Water Policy, which was adopted power sector, in 2009 the Ministry of Energy and in 1999. Mineral Development of Uganda (MEMD) devel- 8 Water in Uganda’s Development Context oped a Power Sector Investment Plan (PSIP) to Partners (DPs). A Government “Working Group�— supplement the Power Sector Reform Programme comprising of representatives of all relevant min- (PSRP) launched over eight years ago. The PSRP istries (MWE, MAAIF, MEMD, and Ministry of was aimed at providing adequate reliable and least- Finance, Planning and Economic Development)— cost power supply to meet the country’s demand, was constituted at the outset of process to work promoting efficiency in operations within the power directly with the Water CAS team. The Water CAS sector, and scaling up rural and peri-urban access has benefitted from comments and input from the to maximize the impact on poverty reduction. Working Group, as have several of the background Implementation of the PSRP did not completely documents that fed into the Water CAS (including address Uganda’s energy challenges that include “Water Resources in Uganda: Issues and Trends� power supply shortages, low rates of access to elec- and the Water Sector Discussion Note). The standing tricity and high power system losses. The PSIP aims group of DPs active in the water sector, the Water to tackle these challenges by: Supply and Sanitation Development Partners Group (WSSDPG), has also been extensively consulted • Enabling the provision of adequate and reliable throughout the preparation of the Water CAS. A power while anticipating demand based on the final round of stakeholder consultations with both country’s vision for economic development; the GoU Working Group and the WSSDPG was conducted in May 2011, allowing the finalization of • Developing a plan that would enable a shift the Uganda Water CAS. from a project by project and donor by donor approach to a sector-wide framework encom- The structure of the Uganda Water CAS is as follows: passing programmatic funding in a coordinated, Chapter 2 describes the current status of Uganda’s comprehensive and harmonized manner; and water sector and lays out the main strategic is- sues.  Chapter 3 takes a detailed look at the actions • Translating the strategic sector plans into a series that are needed in Uganda’s water sector in order of carefully-costed and actionable projects or to achieve the twin objectives of improved water activities over a period of up to twenty years. resources management and service delivery, based on a review of the facts and their strategic impli- The World Bank Uganda Water Country cations. Chapter 4 focuses on the implications of Assistance Strategy not undertaking needed actions to improve water management and service delivery, by looking back- This Uganda Water Country Assistance Strategy wards at the historical costs of insufficient action in (Water CAS) aims to assist the GoU by identifying the water sector. Chapter 5 presents a framework priority actions for building on successful outcomes, for prioritizing across the possible actions, and tackling remaining challenges, and exploiting op- closes with a discussion of tactical and strategic options portunities in Uganda’s water sector. The objective in Uganda’s water sector that contribute to economic, of the Water CAS is to define the World Bank’s stra- social and environmental sustainability, and address tegic role in supporting GoU to better manage and growth and poverty reduction.  Chapter 6 considers develop its water resources. The recommendations the possible actions in light of ongoing Government of the Water CAS are complementary to the World of Uganda initiatives in the water sector as well Bank Country Assistance Strategy (CAS, 2011–15) as Development Partner (DP) support and ongo- priorities for Uganda and consistent with the coun- ing World Bank activities. This lays the foundation try’s development objectives as defined in the NDP for a presentation of Priorities for World Bank and water and related SIPs, which form the founda- Support to Uganda’s Water Sector, outlined in tion of the World Bank Uganda CAS. Chapter 7. The Uganda Water CAS has been developed in This process followed in the Uganda Water CAS is close collaboration with GoU and key Development summarized in Figure 1-5. 9 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Figure 1-5: Schematic of the process followed to develop the Uganda Water CAS Facts: Analysis of Facts: Water Resources to determine Water Utilization Strategic Implications FILTER POSSIBLE World ACTIONS Bank Development Priority Objectives & Possible Actions • Ongoing & Planned Action Criteria Projects & Operations Areas • GOU, DPs, WB (ST/LT) • Actions that satisfy all criteria Prioritization (obvious options) Framework • Actions about which there are di cult choices 10 2 Current Status and Emerging Issues in the Water Sector UGANDA’S NATURAL RESOURCE BASE AND WATER ENDOWMENT Spatial Context Uganda’s water system is comprised largely of lakes, rivers and wet- lands (Figure 2-1). The drainage system and underlying geology has been shaped and reshaped by the violent uplifts and volcanic activity associated with the two great Africa Rift Valleys: the Albertine Rift in western Uganda, which collects the drainage from virtually the entire country and Lake Albert. Lying in the equatorial lakes system, Figure 2-1: Major lakes and rivers in Uganda 11 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Figure 2-2: Map of WMZs and major catchments Uganda’s hydrology is driven by climate and rain- River Basin riparian countries and it is also a part fall, the latter of which is highly variable in both of the Lake Victoria Basin (Figure 2-3). As noted in space and time. Chapter 1, it is an active participant in the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and a member of the Lake Victoria Uganda‘s water management has been organized Basin Commission (LVBC) that operates under the into four Water Management Zones (WMZs). The umbrella of the East African Community (EAC). WMZs (Figure 2-2) approximate as far as practicable About 12% of Uganda’s land area lies in the Lake the boundaries of the eight major hydrologic catch- Victoria Basin. ments in the country (with adjustments in delinea- tion made to ensure that a district is not located Climate in more than one WMZ). The four WMZs are the Upper Nile in the North, Lake Kyoga in the East, Uganda sits astride the equator and, except for the Lake Victoria in the South, and Albert Nile in the high mountain areas, has a primarily tropical cli- West and Southwest. mate. The temperature is pleasantly moderate with a long-term mean of 21o Celsius (C) and ranging Uganda is located almost entirely in the Nile ba- from 8–20oC in mountains in the southwest and east sin; the exceptions are a small area in the extreme to 38–41oC in the northwest. Over the year, mean northeast and the catchments that drain southeast- temperatures range from a minimum of 15oC in July ward into Lake Victoria. Uganda is one of ten Nile to a maximum of 30oC in February. 12 Current Status and Emerging Issues in the Water Sector Figure 2-3: Map of the Nile River Basin IBRD/BIRD 30598R 20E 25E 30E 35E 40E Mediterranean Sea NILE RIVER BASIN Matruh Damietta BASSIN DU NIL Barrage Damietta Alexandria Port Said Edfina Barrage Sefta Barrage SELECTED CITIES / VILLES 30N 30N Delta Barrage El-Ismailiya NATIONAL CAPITALS / CAPITALES NATIONALES Suez CAIRO El-Faiyum MAIN ROADS / AXES ROUTIERS PRINCIPAUX Beni Suef . Nile R At Tur INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES / Baharia Al Minya FRONTIÈRES INTERNATIONALES Oasis LIBYA Assuit Assuit Barrage ARAB REP. This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. Sohag The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information Nag Hammadi Barrage shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank OF EGYPT Qena Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any Luxor endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 25N 25N El-Kharga Esna Barrage Cette carte a été préparée par le département de cartographie de la Banque mondiale. Les frontières, les couleurs, les dénominations et toute Aswan autre information figurant sur la présente carte n'impliquent de la part 1st Cataract Aswan Dam du Groupe de la Banque mondiale aucun jugement quant au statut High Aswan Dam juridique d'un territoire quelconque et ne signifient nullement que le Lake Red Groupe reconnaît ou accepte ces frontières. Nasser Lake Nubia Wadi 2nd Cataract Halfa Sea 20N 20N 3rd Cataract Abu Hamad Port Sudan N il e Dongola a rim4th Ka 5th Cataract . Cataract R Merowe Atbara At b CHAD ar ERITREA a R. 6th Cataract Omdurman Massawa KHARTOUM Kassala 15N 15N Jebel Aulia Dam Khashm ASMARA SUDAN Ed Dueim El Girba Dam El Fasher Wad Medani Axum Sennar Dam Gedarif Tekez e R. Kosti Assab Sennar Mekele Blu El Obeid Gonder e N Roseires Dam Tis Issat Lake DJIBOUTI Weir Tana Lalibella DJIBOUTI ile . Bahir Dar il e R Tis Issat Falls R. Eddiem N R. W hite bay Debre Markos 10N 10N Bahr El Ghazal Ab Malakal Finchaa Dam Dire So Machar Dawa ba Marshes L. tR ADDIS ABABA B ahr E l Z a r a . B a h r El No Baro R. CENTRAL Wau Sudd Gambela ETHIOPIA Swamp AFRICAN Ak Je b ob l o SOUTH f e a R. REPUBLIC Bor SUDAN 5N Mongalla 5N JUBA Nimule Moyale Lake Turkana SOMALIA ile ert N UGANDA Alb Lake Murchison Albert Falls DEM. REP. Lake Kyoga KENYA R OF CONGO ki . Victoria Owen Falls Dam Nile Eldoret Sem li KAMPALA Jinja Meru 0 Lake Kasese Kisumu 0 Entebbe Nyeri Edward Lake Victoria NAIROBI RWANDA Machakos Lake Kivu KIGALI Rusumu INDIAN Falls Mwanza OCEAN R. Arusha ra BUJUMBURA ge Ka BURUNDI Shinyanga Mombasa Lake 0 200 400 Kilometers Tanganyika Kigoma Singinda 5S Tabora Tanga TANZANIA 0 100 200 300 Miles DODOMA 25E 30E 45E APRIL / AVRIL 2012 13 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy With a mean annual rainfall of about 1200 millime- in Figure 2-6. Annual average rainfall ranges from ters (mm) per year, Uganda is well watered relative over 1500 mm per year in the extreme south of the to many countries in Africa and most countries in Lake Victoria, the Rwenzori Mountains in the west, the immediate region, as shown in Figure 2-4. and Mt. Elgon in the east, to less than 600 mm per year in parts of the north-east and particularly the However, aggregates and averages mask high Karamoja region. variability and marked spatial variations. Uganda has a three- to four-month dry season (December– Potential evaporation rates in Uganda are high: rates February) and a long double peaked rainy season for about 75% of the country range from 1350 to (Figure 2-5). The onset (March) and cessation 1750 mm per year (Figure 2-7). In 90% of the country, (November) of the rainy season is quite variable. The evaporation exceeds precipitation, and in 50% of dry season is not only variable in length but also in the country, the deficit is up to 400 mm per year. rainfall intensity. Only the Lake Victoria shores and the high mountainous areas experience a rainfall surplus. Patterns vary spatially, with a majority of the country High rates of evaporation reduce runoff, ground- (particularly the south) generally having two distinct water recharge and dry season stream flow and wet and dry seasons and the north generally having generally result in a high degree of seasonality, one long wet season and a short dry season. Rainfall reduced surface water storage, and increased crop also exhibits significant spatial variability as shown water demand. Climate Risks Figure 2-4: Average annual rainfall in Africa Floods are among the most devastating natural disasters in Uganda. Floods in 1961–2, 1997–8 and 2007 caused wide- spread infrastructure dam- age (predominately roads and bridges), displaced communi- ties, and destroyed dwellings and crops. Flood prone areas in central, eastern and western Uganda are generally located alongside rivers and major water bodies, seasonal and permanent wetlands, and low- lying areas. Historically, Lake Kyoga is one of the worst flood- affected regions in Uganda (Figure 2-8 & Annex A). Floods along the Semulik, which drains Lake Edward into Lake Albert, are also common. Although reported flood dam- ages are higher, droughts are more pervasive, frequent and widespread than floods. Figure 14 Current Status and Emerging Issues in the Water Sector Figure 2-5: Inter-annual precipitation in Uganda from 1901–2000 (World Bank Data) 350 Rainfall (mm/month) 300 250 Mean 200 Mean + St Dev 150 Mean - St Dev 100 Min 50 Max 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2-9 shows that the frequency of rainfall anomalies tailed flood and drought risk maps do not exist for below normal (or long-term average) is signifi- Uganda in part because existing topographic maps cantly greater than the frequency of rainfall higher (and available digital elevation models) have verti- than normal. In the recent past, droughts have led cal scales too large for such mapping. Analysis of to chronic food shortages and widespread live- groundwater availability exists, but maps need to be stock deaths in certain areas of the country. Severe more detailed in order to support drought contin- droughts were recorded in 1993—1994, 1998, 1999, gency planning at the district and sub-district levels. 2002 and 2005, each affecting approximately 655,000 There has been very little planning on adapting to people on average. Droughts are particularly variable rainfall deficits in agriculture and drinking common in districts located in the cattle corridor water supply or on preventing lost household assets (a band of area stretching from the southwest to while enabling the use of valuable flood plain areas. the northwest across the middle of the country in which rainfall averages 600–1000 mm), particularly Limited work on climate change in Uganda has been Karamoja in the northeast. Food security issues con- carried out as part of the climate change vulnerabil- tinue to affect the north and northeast parts of the ity assessment in preparation for the development of country. These areas (Figure 2-6) have low average a climate change adaptation strategy for the water annual rainfall that is highly variable from year to sector. Still few studies on future climate projections year. Drought impacts have been exacerbated by the for Uganda exist, and the large majority are projec- poor condition of water infrastructure (small ponds, tions for all of East Africa. As part of the Uganda tanks and reservoirs) and the lack of technology to Water CAS, a companion study examined trends in access groundwater drought reserves. historical climate as well as a number of scenarios from future climate models. The results from this While floods and droughts are phenomena resulting work are summarized in Box 2-1 below. from natural climate variability the scale and nature of the water system in Uganda suggests that these Surface and Groundwater Availability impacts should be more manageable than they are and Quality at present. The lack of focus in water management planning on climate variability and risk has exac- Uganda’s surface and groundwater resources are erbated the damages associated with these events. summarized in Table 2-1 below. These are the most For example, comprehensive and sufficiently de- recent and detailed estimates available, taken from 15 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Figure 2-6: Average annual rainfall, and areas with a rainfall deficit Figure 2-7: Average Annual Evaporation and Annual Rain Surplus (Adapted from NWRA, MWE 2011) 16 Current Status and Emerging Issues in the Water Sector Figure 2-8: Major floods events in Uganda since 1961 Figure 2-9: Historic climate variability in Uganda, as captured in the WASP (Brown et al, 2008) Weighted Anomaly of Statistical Precipitation (WASP) Index 100 90 80 % Country Area Impacted by Extremes (+ve for Flood, -ve for Drought) 70 60 50 40 30 20 Moderate ood Intermediate ood 10 Severe ood 0 Moderate drought 1901 1904 1907 1910 1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 -10 Intermediate drought -20 Severe drought -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 -90 -100 17 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Box 2-1: Climate Variability and Change in Uganda Key Messages from the background report “Uganda and the Lake Victoria Basin: Historic Climate and Future Climate Change�, a companion piece to this Water CAS, are summarized below. Analysis of Historic Climate Variability: • Climate-related natural disasters, predominately flood-related, have increased markedly in Uganda, indicating an adaptation deficit for natural disasters. • It is unequivocal that there has been a warming trend in Uganda (at the scale of the country or Water Management Zone) and the Lake Victoria Basin from 1901–2006. • There are no discernible trends in mean annual precipitation, but the Lake Victoria Basin seems to have experienced an increase in the number of wet days, i.e. precipitation days. • Whilst there is a trend in climate-related natural disasters (which is also a function of inherent human vulnerability), there is no strong evidence that Uganda (at the scale of the country or Water Management Zone) or the Lake Victoria Basin have experienced more year-to-year precipita- tion variability. Future Climate Projections: • Climate models simulate reasonably well the historical mean annual precipitation for Uganda and the Lake Victoria Basin. • All models project increased warming and more ‘hot’ days in the future. • There is very strong model agreement that mean annual precipitation, runoff, precipitation during extreme storm events, and precipitation intensity will increase in Uganda and the Lake Victoria Basin. • Most climate models project that the months outside of the summer (June—August) will experience precipitation increases. Some of the largest increases will likely occur in months that now receive substantial rainfall, e.g. April and October, but precipitation in August, another month with significant rainfall, will likely not change much. Thus, in relative terms, more precipitation will likely occur outside the summer in the future. This combined with increases in summer temperature could lead to water scarcity issues in the summer. Uganda may have dual chal- lenges related to both flood management and water storage. Source: Westphal, Michael. 2010. Uganda and the Lake Victoria Basin: Historic Climate and Future Climate Change. Table 2-1: Surface and groundwater availability Actual Runoff Sustainable Catchment Area Rainfall Runoff Evaporation Coefficient Runoff Groundwater Yield Sq km mm mm mm BCM/yr BCM/yr Lake Victoria Outlet 252,800 1264 130 1129 0.11 32.86 — Lake Victoria 61,886 — — — — — 0.813 Lake Kyoga 57,236 1132 22 1105 0.02 1.26 1.946 Victoria Nile 27,961 1253 52 1201 0.04 1.45 1.110 Lake Edward 26,719 1144 152 992 0.13 4.07 0.362 Lake Albert 31,496 1231 -117 1335 -0.095 -3.69 0.353 Albert Nile 20,727 1274 -12 1286 -0.01 -0.25 0.500 Aswa 27,637 1212 62 1150 0.05 1.71 0.478 Others 8,945 — — — — — 0.105 (not modeled) Total 37.41 5.67 Source: National Water Resources Assessment (MWE, 2010) 18 Current Status and Emerging Issues in the Water Sector MWE’s National Water Resources Assessment boreholes, shallow wells and protected springs). (NWRA, 2011) which modeled all the catchments However, estimates of total groundwater use in in Uganda. Total water resource availability is about 2030 indicate that only about 15% of this resource 43.1 BCM per year, of which about 76% is from the will have been tapped, suggesting that groundwa- outlet of Lake Victoria. Not including the outflow ter may also be used as a drought reserve without from Lake Victoria (which is largely committed to threatening drinking water supplies. The presence existing and planned hydropower projects along the of aquifers is highly variable as are well yields, Victoria Nile from Lake Victoria to Murchison Falls), necessitating very detailed local level planning for total available water resources are 10.2 BCM per the exploitation of groundwater in Uganda. Annual year, of which surface water runoff is 4.55 BCM groundwater recharge and sustainable groundwater per year and total available groundwater is 5.67 resources are shown in Figure 2-10 below. BCM per year. Table 2-1 shows the very low runoff coefficients due to high rates of actual evaporation, In their natural state, the quality of surface and which range from 65% (Lake Kyoga) to about 90% groundwater in Uganda is generally very good. (Lake Albert) of the potential evaporation. The However, the quality of some of Uganda’s most Lake Edward catchment in western Uganda and important surface waters, particularly Lake Victoria, the southern portion of the Albertine River valley has been declining over the last 20 years due pri- is the highest yielding catchment. This catchment is marily to pollution from domestic and industrial quite mountainous; it is also intensively cultivated waste, agricultural run-off and poorly constructed and includes some of Uganda’s most important sanitation facilities. These are also the main sources environmental assets. of groundwater contamination, especially of shallow groundwater and springs which are relied on by Uganda’s groundwater resources are substantial in many poor urban and rural households. relation to available surface water apart from the Victoria Nile (Figures 2-1 and 2-2). Groundwater has A preliminary analysis of the spatial distribution of generally been thought of as useful primarily, if not available water resources relative to use was carried exclusively, for drinking water supply (using deep out by GoU as part of the Water Sector SIP (2009). Figure 2-10: Annual groundwater recharge and sustainable groundwater resources (as estimated in NWRA, MWE 2011) 19 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Results from that work are presented and briefly studies document a dramatic drop in Uganda’s discussed in Box 2-2 below. forested area, with an estimated 27% being lost between 1990 and 2005. Over the same period grass- Environment land cover also declined by an estimated 1,050,000 ha (or about 20%). The overall environmental trends observed during the last couple of decades in Uganda include a de- Wetlands represent one of the country’s vital natural cline in forest and grassland cover, degradation of resources, offering a wealth of environmental, social wetlands, an expansion of built-up land and farm- and economic services as discussed throughout this land, and an expansion of bush. As noted above, report. Wetland areas currently stand at about 11% Box 2-2: Mismatch between Water Availability and Water Use An analysis was undertaken as part of the water sector SIP in 2009 that estimated current and future (2035) water availability and requirements. Although the results can be questioned, the analysis highlights the mismatch between water resources availability and water use in Uganda. The results of the analysis are presented below. Compared with other countries in Eastern Africa, Uganda is well endowed with water resources. Total annual renewable water resources in the country are estimated be just over 2000 cubic meters (m3)/person/year (MWE SIP, 2009). However, aggregate figures mask both seasonal and spa- tial variability, which translate into significant geographical differences in water availability and water use. Trends in water availability per capita are not encouraging, as shown in the below figures. Over the next 20-25 years, water stress will spread over a majority of districts: • The number of districts with high (500-1000 m3/person/year) or extreme (less than 500 m3/person/year) stress is predicted to increase from 53% of all districts in 2008 to 72% of all districts in 2035. • Those districts with extreme water stress will increase from 67% to 79% of all stressed districts. In other words, in 2035 three out of four districts will be under high or extreme water stress, and four out of five of those districts will experience conditions of extreme water stress. This suggests that in those areas that are less well endowed and are likely to experience increasing water stress and risks, GoU will need to place a high priority on ensuring that water does not become a serious impediment to economic growth or to poverty alleviation. It is interesting to compare the figures below with Figure 1-2, and to note that many of the areas that already experience high to extreme stress also have the highest rates of poverty (e.g., northern Uganda). Figure 2-11: 2008 and 2015 district level water stress 20 Current Status and Emerging Issues in the Water Sector Figure 2-12: Map of land cover in Uganda (NWRA, MWE 2011) of total land area, having declined by 17% from an (as provided in the Water Sector SIP, 2009). Estimated estimated 32,000 km2 in 1964 to about 26,640 km2 in total water use in 2008 (707 MCM) is just 7% of net 2005 (Figure 2-12). This is a serious concern not only water resources available (that is, net of water com- in terms of impacts on rich ecological resources, but mitted to hydropower in the Victoria Nile) and this also the loss of important wetland functions (e.g., is projected to rise to about 21% (2,113 MCM) in natural drainage and water quality improvement) 2035. Crop water use is estimated to double, from and wetland products (crops, fish, and other plants 335 MCM to 676 MCM per year. However, its share and animals). The main causes are uncontrolled land of total water use is expected to fall from 48% to reclamation for industrial and agricultural activities 32% because of the very large increases in rural and as well as human settlement. Little is known about urban water use and in water use for livestock and the amount of water that is required to sustain fisheries (aquaculture). Uganda’s rich biodiversity, wildlife habitat and wetlands. This represents one of the most complex Crop water use remains remarkably low, as com- water management challenges in Uganda. pared to typical shares of 7–85% of total water. The reason for the very low estimate is limited irrigation PRESENT AND PROJECTED area (about 0.3% of cultivable land) as compared to the large extent of area under rain-fed agriculture WATER USE (which covers over 4 million ha). If the indicator Figure 2-13 summarizes the estimates of total water were rainfall, rather than runoff and groundwa- use and water use by major sectors in 2008 and 2035 ter storage, then water use in rain-fed agriculture 21 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Figure 2-13: Current and projected water use in Uganda by key subsectors, including Water for Production (WfP) and Water Supply and Sanitation (WSS) Current (2008) Water Use Predicted (2035) Water Use (Demand gures in million m3/year) (Demand gures in million m3/year) Total Demand: 707 million m3/year Total Demand: 2113 million m3/year would be significantly higher. Moreover, it is likely DEVELOPMENT ISSUES AND that in the future small-scale supplemental irriga- POTENTIALS IN THE MAIN WATER tion of rain-fed crops, including widespread use of conservation farming practices, will greatly increase USING SECTORS water use in agriculture (which is not captured in Figure 2-13). Hydropower The large majority (92%) of energy consumed in Based on the above estimates, it could be argued that Uganda is in the form of fuel wood (biomass), which water is under-utilized in Uganda, both overall and has led to widespread deforestation and watershed by sector. With current use at just less than 1% of total degradation, with the rest from imported liquid available water resources and only about 7% of the fuels (7%) or electric power (1%) (GoU, 2010). net available water resources, Uganda is well off rela- Hydropower and thermal power are the only sources tive to other parts of Africa, as shown in Figure 2-14. of electric power developed to any significant extent. There would seem to be great scope for expanding Still, only a fraction of hydropower potential has water use for economically productive and social been developed (refer below). Power shortages af- purposes. A brief review of the key development fect all sectors of Uganda’s economy, and only about issues and potentials in the main water sectors— 10% of the population has access to grid electricity, hydropower, ‘water for production’ (agriculture), with a wide divergence between rural and urban and water supply and sanitation—in addition to areas (refer Chapter 4). Uganda has one of the low- water resources management is given below. These est levels of per capita electricity consumption in the are looked at more carefully in subsequent chapters. world - estimated to be 69.5 kWh per capita in 2009 A detailed description of each water-using sector is compared to the world’s average of 2,752 kWh per provided in the Sector Fact Sheets in Annex B. capita and an average of approximately 170 kWh per 22 Current Status and Emerging Issues in the Water Sector Figure 2-14: Annual water withdrawals as a percentage of renewable water resources in Africa capita for Sub-Sahara Africa (Foster and Steinbucks, The current portfolio of larger hydropower projects 2008). In addition, power system losses are very is located in a cascade on the Victoria Nile River high, at an estimated 40%. between Lakes Victoria and Albert, as noted above. At the head of this cascade is the controlled outlet Present electricity demand in Uganda is 400 MW, of Lake Victoria, the source of about 96% of the but current hydropower capacity in Uganda is less water flow through the cascade. Power production than 250 MW out of a potential of over 2200 MW. effectively depends on water levels at Lake Victoria. Two large hydropower projects, Bujagali (expected to Releases from the lake are governed by the ‘agreed begin to come online in 2011/2012) and Karuma (pro- curve’ (refer Annex B). posed start in 2011), are expected to increase hydro- power capacity by about 500 to 850 MW (depending Water for Production on ranges given for capacity of Karuma), allowing Uganda to meet the large majority of its projected Agriculture demand over the next decade, and possibly export more of its hydropower through the East Africa The agricultural sector accounts for 23% of Uganda’s Power Pool. Micro and mini hydropower have an GDP and 48% of its exports and employs 60% additional potential of about 200 MW (MEMD, 2007). of the population (UNHS, 2009/10). While the 23 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy overall growth rate in the sector has been low in (15%) is very low (MWE SPR, 2010). Pastoralists lead recent years, export potential remains strong. The semi-nomadic lifestyles in order to find water for majority of farming in Uganda is small in scale, their livestock, particularly in the “cattle corridor� mainly subsistence, and rain-fed; productivity is low where most of Uganda’s livestock is located. Despite and vulnerability to climate variability (includ- its prominent role in the economy, the fisheries sub- ing floods and droughts) is high. Food insecurity sector has begun to experience declining catches due impacts a majority of the population, particularly to poor fisheries management, over-fishing and pol- in the northeast in Karamoja (a post conflict region lution. Aquaculture activities in Uganda are domi- that has been rendered food insecure by decades nated by small-scale, household pond aquaculture of war). in or adjacent to wetlands (estimates range between 10,000 and 20,000). However, the functionality of Existing formal irrigation schemes cover 14,000 to these small-scale aquaculture ponds is reported to 20,000 ha of which about 84% are commercial planta- have fallen to between 10 and 30% (NWRA, 2011). tions and estates (MAAIF, 2010). In addition there is The reasons reported include shortage of seed, loss of an estimated 42,000 to 67,000 ha in informal, small interest because of low yields and failure to manage scale farmer-managed irrigation (MAAIF, 2010). the ponds sustainably. As in irrigated agriculture, Estimates of irrigation potential range from about there is a notable lack of technical knowledge and 200,000 to 450,000 ha (NWRA 2010/11), but even on advisory services available to the farmer. the higher side represent only 10% of cultivable land or about 18% of the second season cropped area. The Water Supply and Sanitation highest potential is in the Lake Kyoga WMZ (refer Annex A). The water supply and sanitation sector has made progress towards its Poverty Eradication Action The country has responded to high population Plan (PEAP) targets for 2015, some of which are growth by expanding rain-fed subsistence agricul- more ambitious than the MDG goals. Access ture into new lands as a means of increasing house- to water supply has continued to grow in rural hold production, a strategy encouraged by rainfall (61% to 65%) and urban (51% to 67%) areas from that averages 100 mm or more for eight months of 2005 to 2010, but functionality—defined as the the year. This horizontal expansion is no longer vi- percentage of improved water sources that are able as a source of growth because of the shortage functional at the time of a spot check (rural) and of land. As the country pushes for higher value ad- the ratio of the actual hours of water supply to the dition in agriculture to improve food security and required hours of supply (urban)—has decreased increase exports and manufacturing inputs, ways slightly (83% to 80% in rural and 93% to 90% in ur- must be found to increase intensity and productiv- ban areas over the same period (MWE SPR, 2010). ity including the introduction of technologies and Significant increases in rural access to sanitation knowledge to increase adaptation and resilience to (57% to 70%) and urban access to sanitation (cur- climate variability and change. rently at 77%) have been documented. The quality of water supplied to consumers in large towns has Livestock and Fisheries generally improved. Livestock and fisheries are important agriculture Although GoU has made considerable progress in subsectors. The livestock sub-sector contributes the water sector, several challenges remain. About about 20% of the agricultural GDP, and the fisheries 35% of the population does not have access to safe sub-sector is the second leading foreign exchange drinking water, that is, about 9 million people in earner after coffee (GoU, 2010). Despite significant rural, and about 2.5 million people in urban areas. investments in infrastructure, water storage capac- While access to sanitation (defined as access to ity meets a small fraction of livestock needs, and latrines and toilets in rural and urban areas respec- functionality of valley tanks (24%) and earth dams tively) is good and improving, sewerage coverage 24 Current Status and Emerging Issues in the Water Sector is very low, at less than 7% for towns served by the use estimates suggest that the share of water used National Water and Sewerage Corporations (NWSC) for WSS will nearly double by 2035 (Figure 2-12). and next to negligible in small towns (under the Directorate of Water Development) (NWSC, 2009). A Spatial Perspective This is largely due to the high investment costs of providing sewerage service (about 3–5 times per Findings and issues differ across the individual capita as compared to water supply, the limited sew- WMZs, each of which generally covers about a erage network and the higher tariff once connected). quarter of the country (Figure 2-2). Select key statis- The collection and treatment of sewage in Kampala tics for each of the zones are presented in Table 2-2 city is highly inadequate and there is a latent market below, followed by a brief discussion of each Zone. for the private sector in this area. Limited sewer- Annex A contains much more detailed information age treatment and a lack of sanitation facilities are for each WMZ. major contributors to deterioriating surface water and groundwater. Compliance with water resources Lake Kyoga WMZ: Home to about 30% of the permits is low, particularly for wastewater discharge population, the Kyoga WMZ exhibits sharp contrasts permits, at 40% (MWE SPR, 2010). between the well-watered, high-density southern / central parts, and low-density, semi-arid northern Emerging trends include a projected shift towards part-- much of which is in the cattle corridor. The piped schemes in rural areas, a strategic emphasis on zone has significant large and small hydropower po- public-private partnerships for small-town supply, tential, including the Bujagali dam that is currently and additional demands on urban supply systems under construction, and the most significant irriga- due to urbanization and industrialization (including tion potential in Uganda (much of it near wetlands). establishment of planned industrial parks). Water Flooding is a major issue. Table 2-2: Key statistics for Uganda’s WMZs Theme Statistics Lake Albert Lake Kyoga Lake Victoria Upper Nile Population (mil.) 8.7 9.0 7.6 4.8 Demographics Rural/Urban Population (mil.) 7.6/1.1 8.2/0.8 6.0/1.6 4.3/0.5 Rural/Urban Population (%) 87%/13% 91%/9% 79%/21% 89%/11% Coverage (NWSC areas) 72% 63% 72% 78% Water Supply Coverage (DWD towns) 31% 36% 50% 25% Access (Rural) 71% 58% 63% 60% Sewerage - NWSC/DWD 2% 14% 7% 5% Sanitation Sanitation Cover—Rural 68% 45% 73% 35% Irrigation Percent of Uganda’s potential irrigation in WMZ 18% 55% 14% 12% Viable Large Hydropower (HP) Potential (MW) Karuma: Bujagali: 250 None None 250–700 Owen Falls: 380 Ayago: 550 Kalagala: 450 Hydropower Large HP Installed (%) None <20% None None Small HP Potential (MW) 148 17 22 16 Small HP Installed (%) 11% <1% 5% <1% 25 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Lake Victoria WMZ: Home to about a quarter of creased acreage under irrigation (for WfP); increased Uganda’s population, this WMZ has the highest water supply for livestock in the cattle corridor, and rainfall in Uganda, and high agricultural and aqua- increased percentage of the population with access to culture production. Poverty near Lake Victoria is water supply. However, these are simply the means amongst the lowest in the country; but slightly to an end—that of realizing sustainable and inclusive higher in cattle corridor areas. The WMZ includes economic development as expressed in the NDP. large urban areas of Kampala, Entebbe and Mbarara, Tracking performance solely by the number of val- which are the major urban water supply centers of ley tanks, dams or structures in place does not fully the country. Lake Victoria levels impact water use reflect the extent to which the people of Uganda have (including hydropower production) in the down- been able to sustainably improve their lives by hav- stream WMZs. ing improved or expanded access to water, harmful conflicts over water have diminished, vulnerabilities Lake Albert WMZ: This WMZ is home to just under to the vagaries of nature have been reduced and food 30% of the country’s population. Rainfall is quite security reached, or industrial growth has accelerated high and evenly distributed, but major flooding is due to an adequate and reliable electricity supply. common in the southwest. The WMZ has significant potential for large and small hydropower (including Perhaps the greatest challenge—and opportunity— Karuma) and contains most of Uganda’s national in Uganda’s water sector lies in the space between parks and forest reserves. The WMZ also includes sector objectives, which are simply the means, and Uganda’s recently discovered oil fields, located actual desired outcomes. It is not a difficult matter along the Albertine rift. technically to locate and build a valley tank for live- stock or a storage reservoir and a small canal to bring The Upper Nile WMZ: This WMZ is the least popu- water to farmers. However, given the spatial and lated, containing 15% of Uganda’s population. The temporal variability in water resources and demands zone has severe poverty and a majority of the popu- that do not necessarily coincide, ensuring that water lation lives below the poverty line. Water supply and is efficiently and productively utilized, guaranteeing sanitation coverage is the lowest amongst all zones; equitable distribution, and maintaining the exist- irrigation and hydropower potential are limited. ing stock of infrastructure requires management of water in an integrated manner that includes all CHALLENGES AND stakeholders and takes place at the appropriate level of decision-making (i.e., at the catchment level). This OPPORTUNITIES FACING WATER approach serves as the foundation upon which the RESOURCES MANAGEMENT sectoral building blocks—water for people, water for energy, water for food, and water for nature—can A number of the current and future challenges facing be placed for a sustainable future. It should be high- water management are alluded to or discussed in lighted that not all decisions regarding an integrated detail above. These include: trends in environmental approach to water management take place within degradation (decreasing wetland area and water the water sector itself, and, therefore coordinating quality); high existing climate variability, which is across water-dependent sectors is critical. likely to be exacerbated under a changing climate; problems with the location and timing of water re- From the brief review above, a number of key sources, which will become a greater challenge with thematic challenges facing Uganda’s water sector rising populations and economic growth; and the emerge. These are outlined below. complexities of the transboundary nature of water resources in Uganda. Low Water Utilization and Productivity The NDP and related sector documents express Improving the utilization and productivity of the sector objectives in physical terms, for example, in- Uganda’s water is a major challenge. Uganda’s water 26 Current Status and Emerging Issues in the Water Sector resources remain largely under-utilized, as described to those that exist in small towns) are expected to above. Under-utilization of water resources for pro- contribute to addressing this problem. ductive and consumptive use—and uncontrolled degradation of water bodies—has undermined Environmental degradation the country’s economic growth and negatively impacted on livelihoods and the environment. The Continued environmental degradation is costly in Government’s approach has been primarily along economic, social and resource terms. As discussed conventional supply-driven lines that have not above, changes in land cover and pollution pose seri- worked well in the past. Unused infrastructure that ous threats to the environment and natural resource is ill maintained and non-functional points to the base of the country.  Watersheds are being rapidly fact that simply mobilizing investment to increase degraded and threaten water supply sustainability. water infrastructure is not the answer (refer below). Wetlands and forests are under particular threat from conversion to urban and agricultural uses. Pollution Water use productivity is also low in economic from increasing urbanization and industrialization terms. Improving the economic productivity per is threatening several areas like Murchison Bay and unit of water used will require investments not pose an increasing threat to public health, tourism, just in water use efficiency, but also in a number of fisheries, and asset values. While there is a strong complimentary measures (Box 7-1). For example, legal and regulatory framework for environmental productivity increases in agriculture will require management in Uganda, the enforcement of regu- complementary investments in cropping systems, lations remains a challenge (notwithstanding the markets, inputs, innovation and advisory services recently introduced environmental protection force). (e.g. NAADS), along with improvements in storage, irrigation and on-farm water management. Limited adaptation to climate variability and change Poor water infrastructure development and management Uganda is already subject to significant climate variability. The impacts of the hydrologic extremes The ability of people to adapt and innovate is evi- will be exacerbated with continued watershed dent everywhere in Uganda, despite the almost total degradation, wetland loss, population growth, and lack of technology and infrastructure (particularly paradoxically economic growth as higher-value as- in rural areas). Nonetheless, the state of existing sets are impacted. The capacity to cope with existing water infrastructure—for example, the important climate risks is poor. Climate change is expected to valley tanks, ponds and small reservoirs vital for bring further changes in the hydrology and water livestock—is poor, largely because of the lack of demands that could require additional adaptation maintenance. The lesson here is the same as else- and threaten the resource base necessary to provide where: unless people have a sense of ownership, desired water services. For example, hydropower participate in the planning and implementation of generation at Owens Falls, Kiira, Bujagali, and fu- infrastructure, and receive the necessary skills and ture hydropower projects in the system will be very technical support, a poor record of infrastructure sensitive to the evaporation-rainfall balance over the performance will continue. Asset management large Lake Victoria surface. A combination of infor- systems—with adequate self financing—need to mation, institutional, instruments, and infrastructure be systematically developed to improve operations investments will be required to improve adaptation and maintenance and ensure sustainable service to existing and evolving climate risks. provision. This will become increasingly important as investments in water infrastructure rise and ser- Institutional and governance challenges vices are expanded. The introduction of community management systems for small facilities and the es- Addressing institutional issues will also remain tablishment of water boards for large dams (similar a major challenge, particularly given the large 27 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy number of actors involved in water management Financial issues and development (cutting across several ministries, including those responsible for water and environ- In addition to human resources, one of the major ment, energy, agriculture, disaster management, challenges facing Uganda is the lack of financial etc.). Key needs will be to clearly define roles resources to help it meet the significant investment and responsibilities and to create mechanisms needs in water resources management and service for coordination, collaboration, data sharing, and delivery improvements. Despite the acknowledged consensus building. The foundation for all of these importance of Uganda’s water sector, the percent is adequate capacity to plan, regulate and carry of GoU national budget allocated to the sector has out the required functions. With ongoing oil ex- been continually decreasing, from 4.9% in fiscal year ploration and development, there is urgent need to 2004/5 to 2.2% in fiscal year 2009/10, and a very strengthen the monitoring and compliance capacity significant gap between financing and investment of key players in environmental management, needs remains (MWE SPR, 2010). notably the National Environmental Management Authority (NEMA) and MWE (specifically, the Insufficient financing of new investments is exacer- Directorates of Water Resources Management and bated by poor sustainability of existing investments, Environmental Affairs). due to inadequate revenue collection, poor financial management and insufficient budgetary allocations On the governance side, the MWE has under- to meet needed O&M expenses. This challenge can taken a Water Integrity Study, which has led to be met by improving prioritization of new and an Action Plan on Good Governance. This is now existing infrastructure for investments through a being implemented with particular focus on pro- participatory planning process at the appropriate moting social accountability in rural districts and (catchment) level, improving efficiency of physical small towns. Targeted work in the environmental (e.g. non-revenue water) and institutional systems, sector is also underway, including a review of the improving revenue collection and reducing subsi- political economy of the sector and a study on en- dies where appropriate, and promoting innovative vironmental governance. Public-Private Partnerships and user management. 28 3 Actions to Respond to Challenges and Opportunities OBJECTIVES FOR UGANDA’S WATER SECTOR Literature warns that “If one does not know where he/she is going, any road will lead there.� The message is that in order to define a well-directed path for Uganda’s water sector, it is essential to outline the elements of a possible future vision of the sector. This must begin with an understanding of the desired objectives. Uganda’s National Development Plan and related sector documents emphasize sustain- able utilization of the country’s water resources, water security, and maximum economic benefit now and in the future, as well as indicate the need for improved water services (refer Chapter 1). These goals can be summarized in two types of strategic objectives, which are also consistent with the World Bank’s Africa Strategy: (i) improved water resources management and (ii) improved service delivery. Over the past several decades, experience has shown what these strategic objectives mean in practice. ‘Improved’ water resources management and service delivery generally have a number of broad features or characteristics, although one size does not fit all and the needs will differ from country to country, basin to basin, and even catchment to catchment. Good water resources management has the following general features: • Functional multi-sectoral, spatially-integrated and coordinated water resources planning and management institutions • Knowledge-based tools for water resources management, alloca- tion and effective regulation • Sustainable development and management of environmental services (e.g., wetlands, biodiversity, etc.) • Sustainable groundwater development and management • Effective adaptation to climate variability and change 29 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy Good water service delivery has the following gen- IDENTIFICATION OF eral features: ACTION RESPONSES TO • Well-functioning and coordinated service deliv- CURRENT CHALLENGES ery organizations AND OPPORTUNITIES • Adequate identification, prioritization, sequenc- A systematic review requires a detailed assessment ing, and preparation of investments across starting with the ‘facts’ and making use of the best water-related sectors available knowledge base on the water sector. The ‘facts’ are derived from a number of sources (in- • Developing and effectively maintaining infra- cluding sector-specific SIPs, policy notes, etc.), and structure for service delivery most notably the MWE’s recently completed NWRA (2011), which is the most comprehensive assessment • Stakeholder awareness and tools to promote of Uganda’s water sector to date. Once the ‘facts’ are effective use of water established, their strategic implications (emerging constraints and issues, development opportunities, As noted above, each case is unique, and more or etc.) are determined and the actions that would be less emphasis will need to be placed on the above needed to respond to these implications are identi- characteristics depending on the precise circum- fied. The review results in the series of tables below, stances. In order to better formulate the actions covering surface and groundwater, climate risks, needed in Uganda’s water and sanitation sector agriculture, livestock and fisheries, water supply and to realize the twin objectives of improved water sanitation, hydropower, environmental services, and resources management and service delivery, it institutions and governance. These can be related is important to study in detail facts on emerging to the two strategic objectives of improved water challenges and opportunities and to examine their resources management and service delivery, and strategic implications. This process is undertaken are presented as such. It is important to highlight in the next section. that some of the actions identified below are com- plimentary or overlapping (so that from a project or program perspective they could be consolidated into a smaller number) and that not all of the actions can or should be undertaken at the same time as they are not all of equal priority (the subject of Chapter 5). Finally, although the devil is in the details, it will be necessary to step back once the detailed assess- ment is undertaken in order to define a manageable path forward. In subsequent sections of this report, the possible actions in the tables that follow will be ‘filtered’ and grouped into appropriate categories to form a term program of World Bank support for Uganda’s water sector. 30 Actions to Respond to Challenges and Opportunities Objective 1: Improve Management of Water Resources In order to improve the management of water resources, actions need to be taken in several critical areas related to surface water, groundwater, and climate risks, as discussed in Table 3-1. Table 3-1: Evolving needed actions for water resources management Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions SURFACE WATER Uganda is considered to be well-endowed with water, but • Water resources are precious in • Improve water resources management, in 90% of the country, evaporation exceeds precipitation Uganda and need to be managed well. planning, allocation and use across (i.e. there is a rainfall deficit) and in 50% of the country, sectors. rainfall deficit is up to 400 mm/yr. • Existing water resources need to be efficiently utilized. Runoff coefficients are low. Uganda’s water system is comprised of lakes, rivers and • Uganda’s water needs to be planned • Set up strong WMZ institutions for water wetlands that are driven by climate and rainfall. and managed in a spatial context. resources planning, coordination and management. There are significant differences in the surface water endowment across the country. • Move water from water-abundant to water- scarce regions (i.e. inter-basin transfer). Lake Victoria contributes most (88%) of the surface water • Surface water in Lake Victoria is of • Develop and use hydro planning tools for (33 BCM/yr); Lake Edward a distant second (4 BCM/yr). critical importance. Lake Victoria. There are significant differences in surface water availabil- • Uganda needs to capture water when • Explore water storage in the context of ity over time. it is available for use in other periods. IWRM planning. In its natural state, quality of surface water is gener- • Uganda needs to understand water • Improve surface water monitoring. ally very good. However, the quality of surface water is pollution issues, and take steps to threatened and finishing in specific parts of the country, address them. • Implement source and catchment protec- particularly in streams and lakes near towns. tion programs. • Implement activities to reduce point and non-point source pollution, including en- forcement of laws, regulations and permit conditions, particularly near towns. All of Uganda’s surface water is trans-boundary in nature. • Uganda must work closely with other • Strong involvement in regional water- riparians for mutual benefit. related programs (e.g. NBI/NEL; LVBC; IGAD, EAPP). Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions GROUNDWATER Groundwater could have sustainable and safe yields of • Because groundwater represents a • Develop a good groundwater knowledge about 5.7 BCM/yr (conservative estimate), which is significant source of Uganda’s water, a base, covering all districts. significant when compared to the surface water runoff better groundwater information (4.6 BCM/yr excluding Lake Victoria). 60% of this base is needed for its management • Better management, including by yield is in Kyoga WMZ. and development. extending limited groundwater level monitoring network. Currently, groundwater is used primarily for • Groundwater resources could be • Plan and implement well-conceived domestic purposes. sustainably developed for multiple sustainable groundwater abstraction (for uses (including domestic, livestock, multiple uses) and recharge programs. Domestic use is 1.4% of sustainable yield, and is estimated agriculture/ drought management). to remain below 15% in 2030, with a few exceptions. 31 (continued on the next page) Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy (continued from the previous page) Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions Groundwater quality is generally acceptable, • Uganda should monitor and safeguard • Extend the limited groundwater quality although contamination is increasingly observed in its relatively good quality groundwater. monitoring network. selected areas, particularly due to fecal matter. In the long run, industrial waste and agricultural chemicals will • Groundwater quality in selected areas • Improve sanitation facilities and become increasingly significant. will need to be addressed. source protection. Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions CLIMATE RISKS Floods: Impacts of flood-related events have increased • Measures are needed to decrease the • Strengthen forecast and early warning in Uganda, particularly in Eastern Uganda (i.e. floodplain vulnerability of people, property and systems. downstream of Mount Elgon). infrastructure to floods. • Improve the hydrometereological moni- Human omissions are the major contributor to the dev- toring system. astating impacts of floods in Uganda. Most of these omissions are non-structural, because measures to miti- • Risk mapping including floodplain surveys gate flood impacts have not been taken. (e.g. LIDAR). Large wetlands attenuate flood peaks and store flood • Land use planning and zoning. waters, thereby mitigating flood impacts. • Structural measures for flood management. • Implement program to improve wetland management and conservation. Landslides: Eastern and Western Uganda have landslide • Landslide risks can be reduced by • Implement watershed management risks due to steep slopes as well as land cover, soils, addressing erosion as well as preventing program to reduce erosion in steep slopes. and precipitation. settlement on steep and potentially unstable slopes. • Improved land use planning and zoning. Droughts: Food insecurity affects two-thirds of the popu- • Droughts are significant given their • Initiate drought risk mapping. lation, and droughts are most prevalent in the “cattle recurrence, the number of people corridor� that encompasses 44% of the country. affected, and the impact on food and • Improve weather forecasting, communica- cash crops. tion, and drought preparedness programs. Once every five years, all crops experience moisture deficit. • Introduce insurance schemes for The impact of drought is aggravated by widespread soil risk management. degradation and lack of moisture retention. • Strengthen soil and water conservation programs. Climate Change: Temperature is projected to increase over • Uganda is particularly sensitive to • Undertake climate risk assessments (his- the next century. Rainfall projections are not in agree- changes e.g. its extensive lake and wet- torical and projected) of each WMZ and ment for the middle of the century, but show an increase land system, extensive (90%) rain-fed upstream Nile Basin areas using systems (of 100 to 250 mm) by the end of the century. agricultural system, and the fact that models. large hydropower is hydraulically linked Climate change projections are uncertain but within the to the Nile. • Coordinate actions that address historic range of historic variability. climate variability and climate change as • Addressing current adaptation deficit to part of a comprehensive climate resilience existing variability would build Uganda’s program, e.g. under an IWRM framework. resilience to uncertain climate change. • Mainstream climate resilience into exist- ing and future investments, and explore carbon finance opportunities. 32 Actions to Respond to Challenges and Opportunities Objective 2: Improve Service Delivery culture, livestock and fisheries, water supply and sanitation, hydropower, and environmental services. Service delivery will need to be improved in all of The identification of possible actions associated with the main water-dependent sectors, including agri- each is presented below. Table 3-2: Evolving needed actions for service delivery Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions AGRICULTURE The agricultural sector accounts for 23% of Uganda’s GDP, • Rain-fed agriculture will be the primary • Improve understanding of rain-fed 48% of exports and employs 73% of the population aged form of agriculture in Uganda. agriculture risks and mitigation options. 10 and older. • Climate resilience is critical for • Strengthened agricultural advisory and About a third of the country is cultivated; almost all of this food security. research systems. rain-fed. The vast majority of arable area will be rain-fed, as irriga- tion potential is limited (refer below). Irrigation potential has been estimated at between • Irrigation potential is not substantial • Improve understanding of irrigation 200,000 and 450,000 ha. relative to potential arable area. potential to extend irrigated areas. However, of this potential, relatively Currently, 14,000 to 20,000 ha (formal) and 42,000 to little is developed. • Studies of the modalities for promoting 67,000 ha (informal) are under irrigation. commercial irrigated agriculture for • Irrigation development is expensive and high-value and/or export-oriented crops. Few upstream storage sites exist and most of this irriga- could involve significant environmental tion potential is based on wetland conversion. trade-offs. Thus, it should be targeted to • Investigate new technology for high-value/export oriented cropping. improving viability and productivity of Some existing irrigation schemes are not well performing. irrigation development. • Rehabilitation and modernization of existing irrigation schemes, including headworks. Low productivity on Uganda’s dominantly rain-fed small- • There is great potential to improve pro- • Program to improve soil and water scale farms means that crop yields are only a quarter to ductivity in rain-fed agriculture through conservation in rain-fed agricultural half of what should be achievable by current technologies. agricultural water management. systems (including farm ponds, rainwater tanks etc., and related This low productivity is a function of many issues, includ- technology/marketing). ing high rainfall variability and soils with depleted nutrients and low moisture holding capacity. • Develop small-scale supplemental groundwater irrigation, where appropriate. (continued on the next page) 33 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy (continued from the previous page) Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions LIVESTOCK AND FISHERIES Livestock are important in terms of GDP (20% of agricul- • Despite significant investments in • Conduct studies on performance of WfP tural GDP) and for livelihoods. The majority of livestock are small dams and valley tanks, needs of facilities to improve sustainability. located in the cattle corridor, a dry belt extending from livestock are not being met. the Southwest to the Northeast. • Rehabilitate existing viable WfP facili- • There appears to be substantial ties and introduce appropriate manage- About 1,000 water points / Water for Production (WfP) potential for further development of ment systems. facilities (301 dams, 750 valley tanks) developed primarily groundwater for livestock. for livestock in last half century. About 26% of these • Scope locations for new WfP facilities, are functional. • Improved management of livestock (e.g. including groundwater-based systems, cattle in cattle corridors) is needed. within a IWRM planning framework. These existing facilities meet only a third to a half of the estimated livestock water requirement of 212 MCM/yr. • Improve knowledge base on livestock (e.g. future potential, productivity, Current use of groundwater for livestock is negligible, and value-added). it is estimated that groundwater can safely provide a sub- stantial part of livestock drinking needs. Migration of pastoralists in search of water is becoming increasingly difficult due to conflicts with farmers, cities, towns, other water users. Fish is Uganda’s second leading foreign exchange earner, • Declining fish catches have had a signifi- • Improved fisheries management, after coffee ($115 m in 2008) and employs 1.2m people. cant and tangible impact on livelihoods regulation and law enforcement. and the economy. Annual catches in Uganda have decreased since 2004 • Further strengthening pollution control because of poor fisheries management, over-fishing (e.g. • Threatened wetlands (refer below) have in major water bodies. undersized nets), water pollution and water hyacinth pro- had impacts on fisheries production. liferation (particularly in Lake Victoria). • Strengthen program to improve wet- lands management. Wetlands are an important habitat for fish. Aquaculture has grown by 300% in the last decade. In • Aquaculture is becoming increasingly • Improve aquaculture support programs. 2008, production was 73,000 tons from 30,000 ponds. important. • Develop environmental guidelines for Average yields for commercial fisheries (15,000 kg/ha) are • There is a need to improve productivity aquaculture. up to ten times that of subsistence farmers. for subsistence farmers and promote high-yielding commercial aquaculture Significant pollution problems especially in cage fisheries. while managing environmental risks. 34 Actions to Respond to Challenges and Opportunities Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION Access and Functionality: Access* to improved water • When functionality of existing systems • Identify and implement appropriate sources has been improving, and is now 65% in urban and is factored in, 49% of the rural popula- investments in urban water supply. 67% in rural areas. Access rates are highly variable, par- tion does not have access to water ticularly across rural areas and small towns. supply. This translates to about 11–12m • Identify and implement appropriate people without real access. investments rural water supply. Access rates in large towns (served by NWSC) and small towns (served by DWD) are markedly different (73% and • Similarly, 40% of the urban popula- • Update existing investment plans to 50%, respectively). tion does not have access to functional reflect current realities and based on systems. This translates into 2–2.5m stakeholder consultations. Functionality* of water supply systems has decreased people without real access. slightly, and is currently at about 90% in urban and 80% • Rehabilitate dilapidated urban system. in rural areas. • Levels of use in rural areas are below minimum WHO standards for domestic • Continue to explore potential of ground- Levels of use are very low, averaging 7.7 Liters per capita supply (20 lpcd) and a small fraction of water for rural/small town areas. per day (lpcd) in rural and 41 lpcd in urban areas. standards for low-middle income areas (75 lpcd). This indicates that even those • Promote rainwater harvesting under * Definitions: Access: The percentage of people within 0.2 km with access are underserved. appropriate conditions (both rural (urban) or 1 km (rural) of an existing and improved water and urban.) source. Functionality: The percentage of improved water sources that are functional at the time of a spot check (rural) • Targeted training and capacity building and the ratio of the actual hours of water supply to the to improve sustainability and perfor- required hours of supply (urban). mance of systems. • Improve asset management and O&M framework. Sanitation and Water Quality: Access to sanitation has • Relatively high sanitation coverage, • Identify and implement appropriate increased, and is currently at 77% in urban and 70% in combined with low sewerage coverage, sanitation technologies for rural areas. rural areas. However, sewerage coverage is very low at has led to problems with waste man- less than 7% for NWSC towns and next to negligible in agement and water contamination. • Identify and implement appropriate DWD small towns. sanitation technologies for large NWSC • Uganda needs to implement towns and small DWD towns (incl. Quality of supplied water in large towns has improved. measures to protect water quality sludge management from septic tanks However, water quality at supply sources is deteriorating. at supply sources. and latrines). Current and Future Water Use: Water requirements for • Current and future (2030) domestic • Establish possible shortcomings in long domestic use are currently 82.2 MCM/yr in rural and 65.8 requirements are less than 2% of avail- term plans for expansion, including MCM/yr in urban areas. able runoff and sustainable groundwa- considering other competing water uses ter yield (~43 BCM/yr). Domestic water (agriculture, hydropower, etc.). Future requirements are estimated to grow substan- supply needs could be fully met with tially to 650 MCM/yr (384 MCM/yr in rural, 266 MCM/yr in proper investment planning, implemen- • Ensure that water supply sources are urban) by 2030. tation and operation. protected and resources available can cater for future growth. Industrial requirements are about 32 MCM/year. • With industrial output growing at about Industries are concentrated in the Kampala-Jinja region 10% per year, industrial water use can (on the shores of Lake Victoria). be expected to increase significantly. Industrial growth could also have impli- cations on water quality in Lake Victoria. (continued on the next page) 35 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy (continued from the previous page) Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions Performance of WSS Providers: • There is significant room to reduce non- • Studies to understand and activities to revenue water in NWSC, which could go reduce Non-Revenue water. “Non-revenue water� averages 35.8% in large NWSC a long way towards improving access for towns, and 42.9% in Kampala. This translates to water underserved population. • Identify key issues at water supply losses of 21.6 MCM/year due to leakages and illegal sources. consumption. • Catchment management will be critical from a water supply perspec- • Initiate and strengthen water supply Small and large towns are confronting increasing produc- tive because sourcing water at greater source protection programs, including tion costs because of water scarcity issues, pollution and/ distances and treating poor quality payments or constributions for or high costs of power. water are costly. environmental services. NWSC towns generally cover their operating costs; many • Addressing the underlying issues of DWD towns do as well. However, external financing is water scarcity and quality requires bet- required for expansion and system upgrades. ter planning and enforcement. Tariffs are generally low. To some degree, large consumer categories (e.g. commercial) subsidize domestic consum- ers and the poor. Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions HYDROPOWER/ENERGY Installed large hydropower capacity is 450 MW (incl. • Large hydropower on the Nile is hydrau- • Construct and commission the Karuma Bujagali, commissioned in 2011/12). lically linked, and could make Uganda’s hydropower dam. energy sector vulnerable to climatic variability and change. A further potential of 1,850 MW of large HP exists, all • Further developing hydropower along • Hydropower systems development along the Nile river system. Construction for Karuma the Victoria Nile would have implica- planning and implementation with (250/700 MW) is expected to commence in 2011. tions for other water-using sectors. adequate consideration of trade-offs and synergies with other uses. Small (seasonal) hydropower potential is about 200 MW, • Uganda is not meeting its current power located mainly in the West and around Mt. Elgon. Of this, demand, but is expected to meet the • Scoping and development of viable 30 MW is currently developed. large majority of it after Bujagali and small hydropower schemes, with Karuma come online. emphasis on off-grid locations. Less than 10% of the population has access to electricity, and 92% of the energy consumed is fuel wood. • Small HP could close the supply gap in the interim, and could also serve Current demand is estimated at over 400MW and fore- isolated grids and rural areas. casted to increase to about 800 MW in 2020. • An enormous dependence on fuel wood contributes to the alarming rates of deforestation. Power generation at the Kiira-Nalubaale facilities is less • There is a need to manage surface water • Improve overall Lake Victoria basin than installed due to low lake levels. use to improve hydropower production, knowledge base, monitoring and considering trade-offs and synergies. decision support system for multiple water uses, planning and system • Hydraulic risk to hydropower on Victoria operations (particularly with respect to Nile is increased by climate variability water releases). and lack of knowledge. 36 Actions to Respond to Challenges and Opportunities Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions Large, commercially-viable oil reserves have been discov- • Oil will play a greater role in Uganda’s • Study potential negative impacts of oil ered in the Lake Albert Rift in the west. energy portfolio in the long term, and exploitation and development. may replace hydropower as the least- The Lake Albert Rift is an ecologically rich part of the cost energy option for Uganda. • Strengthen regulation of water abstrac- country, and includes several eco-tourist sites. tion for oil exploration and production; • Development of oil will need to be bal- as well as monitoring and regulation of anced with environmental concerns. effluent discharge from oil and gas- related activities. Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES Wetland systems dominate the country, providing valu- • Given the value of wetlands, wetland • Improve wetland knowledge base, able functions of flood attenuation, sediment capture, development needs to carefully consid- mapping, characterization, and value. grazing, fisheries, biodiversity, and agriculture. ered and managed. • Strong wetland management and Wetlands supply direct or subsistence employment to conservation programs, with a focus on about 2.7m people. enhancing community benefits. Uganda has rich biodiversity, wildlife habitats, many pro- • If managed well, these can provide • Improved eco-tourism infrastructure tected areas and important eco-tourism areas. important environmental, social and (e.g., WSS and water supply economic services. for wildlife). Tourism (primarily eco-tourism) is important. Tourist arrivals grew by 65% from 2004 to 2008 (to 845,000 per year). This contributes 9.2% of the GDP in 2008. High levels of deforestation over the last few years, with • High levels of deforestation and soil ero- • Strengthen afforestation programs. an estimated 1.3m ha of forest cover (27%) from 1990 sion have implications on water quality to 2005. (e.g. increasing sedimentation) and • Demonstrate and scale-up payments for water productivity in agriculture. environmental services. Soil erosion is a problem in localized areas. • Upstream actions can have serious • Improve catchment management and impacts downstream. soil/water conservation programs. 37 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Overall Institutional and ticular attention to institutional and governance Governance Framework aspects that are critical to the achievement of both strategic objectives. The actions required in this area The effective management of water resources and have also been identified by an examination of the provision of adequate water services requires par- current facts, as indicated in Table 3-3 below. Table 3-3: Water management and governance Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions WATER MANAGEMENT AND GOVERNANCE Uganda has a sound regulatory and legal framework for • Despite a sound framework, environ- • Strengthen enforcement of environ- environmental management. mental degradation is rampant, largely ment and water laws by building capac- due to lack of enforcement. ity in environment/water agencies. The responsibility for water for agriculture is divided • Confusion over roles and responsibilities • Clarify institutional roles between MWE between MWE (bulk water supply) and MAAIF (on-farm has slowed progress in development and MAAIF. development.) There is confusion over their respective and management of water roles and responsibilities. for agriculture. • Develop a sound strategy and policy for water for agriculture. • Build capacity in both ministries for water for agriculture. MoDPR coordinates disaster preparedness and relief, but • Given the magnitude of damages from • Build capacity of the MoDPR, particu- its capacity is limited and data sharing and coordination floods and droughts, it is critical that larly in mapping and analysis. are a challenge. this weakness is addressed. • Strengthen links between MoDPR and Historically, MoDPR has focused on relief efforts. other ministries. MEMD is responsible for energy development, includ- • Linkages between MEMD and MWE • Strengthen data sharing and joint plan- ing hydropower, but has not adequately taken account need to be improved. ning exercises (MEMD/MWE). of competing uses in its planning and development to ensure optimization of hydropower supply. • Plan hydropower investments and operation within an IWRM context to optimize hydropower generation. MWE (through DWRM) is implementing stakeholder- • Catchment-based water management • Establish institutional arrangements; driven IWRM at the catchment level through the and development is important for build capacity at WMZ level to opera- establishment of 4 Water Management Zones (WMZs). Uganda, however operationalizing this tionalize catchment-based IWRM. is complex. This strategy was finalized after Sector Investment Plans • Continue development of a comprehen- (SIPs) were prepared. • SIPs are not in sync with revised IWRM sive, national IWRM strategy. and WMZ framework. The sector is currently taking steps to build an appropriate • Realign SIPs for consistency with revised policy and legislative framework for IWRM. • Existing policy and legislations may IWRM framework. need to be revised to support decentral- ized management and development. • Develop IWRM plans in WMZs with stakeholder participation. • Review and update existing water policy and legislative framework. 38 Water in Uganda’s Development Context Facts Strategic Implications Possible Actions WSS needs differ across rural areas, small (DWD) towns • Develop institutional capacity for • Rural: Explore enhanced community and large (NWSC) towns. Ensuring adequate supply for specialized area-based approaches to involvement in WSS management. domestic, industrial and commercial users may require determine evolving demands, potential different arrangements. supply sources, and resilient capacity- • NWSC: Explore innovative institutional expansion plans with appropriate arrangements. implementation arrangements. • DWD: Make better use of PPPs and OBAs. Identify growing towns that could require NWSC inputs. The water sector has addressed integrity and corruption • While an action plan is in place, it • Support implementation of Water issues through the Water Integrity Scan, which has led to remains to be seen whether it can be Action, in particular public access to the Water Action Plan on good governance. effectively implemented. information, transparent procurement and accounting, and mechanisms to address grievances. Water sector funding has remained about the same since • Decreasing allocations to water reflect • Studies on value of water to the 2003/04. Percent of the overall budget allocated to water a lack of full appreciation for value of economy, in order to boost public sector has been decreasing, and a significant gap between water to Uganda and a perception that investment. financing and investment needs remains. funds are not effectively utilized in the sector. • Conduct a Public Expenditure Review for Development Partners and NGOs have played a major role water sector. in supporting the water sector. Private sector participa- • DP and NGO support will continue to be tion is limited. important, but private sector participa- • Develop strategy for improving private tion needs to be encouraged. sector participation in water sector. POSSIBLE ACTIONS AT VARIOUS SCALES It is an obvious point, but worth highlighting, that possible actions will differ by the scale of refer- ence. A few illustrative examples are provided in Table 3-4 below. Table 3-4: Possible actions at various spatial scales Spatial Scale Possible Actions Nile Basin Cooperation with other riparians on water resources development and management Regional hydromet monitoring system and information sharing National Overall policy and regulatory framework (including water allocation/entitlements, standards and pollution regulation) Strengthened inter-ministerial coordination and prioritization across key sectors (e.g. energy, water, agriculture) WMZ/Catchment Addressing challenges and opportunities at basin/sub-basin level to plan/manage water across sectors Strategic planning and identification of key water infrastructure (to enable higher productivity and access) in a systems context District Harmonizing administrative and hydrologic plans Improving cross-sectoral coordination at decentralized level (e.g. environment, forestry, agriculture officers) Farm/Urban Area Improving water use productivity and efficiency Judicious mix of surface and groundwater sources 39 4 The Costs of Inadequate Water Management and Development Chapter 3 proposed a number of actions to tackle emerging challenges and exploit opportunities in Uganda’s water sector. This chapter fo- cuses on the implications of not undertaking needed actions to improve water management and service delivery by looking backwards at the historical costs of insufficient action in the water sector. The costs of poor water management and development to water-dependent sec- tors and the wider economy are already significant, which serves as a both a lesson a warning. Anecdotal evidence on these costs abounds. For example: • Receipts from the fishing industry, which has traditionally been the second largest foreign exchange earner after coffee, have fallen dramatically—from a high of USD 143 million in 2005 to USD 85 million in 2008—due to a combination of deteriorating water qual- ity, reduced water levels, and poor fisheries management. • Climate related disasters—predominantly floods—have markedly increased in Uganda. In the last two decades, there have been at least 14 major flood events, affecting an average of nearly 70,000 people. The 1997/1998 El Niño, the most severe weather phe- nomenon in Ugandan history, resulted in one of the worst floods in the country, causing widespread landslides, claiming over 50 lives and causing USD 20 million in direct property damage. The cost of emergency repairs on some of the main roads affected by floods in eastern Uganda and other parts of the country in 2007 were estimated to be over UGX 6 billion or approximately USD 3 million (UNDP/NEMA/UNEP, 2009). As noted earlier, the five most severe droughts affected an average of over 650,000 people, and caused major food shortages and livestock deaths. • A recent study in Kampala found that household expenditures related to inadequate water supply and sanitation are as high as USD 17.4 million per annum or about 15% of aggregate annual household income. The costs of treating water-related illnesses by clinics located in three parishes in Kampala were estimated at approximately USD 300,000 in 2007 (Laplante, 2008). Meanwhile, non-revenue water (NRW) losses across the areas supplied by 41 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy NWSC are 35.8%. In Kampala, NRW has consis- group discussions and structured interviews with tently been increasing over time and now stands officials and staff of NWSC. at 42.9%; this translates into water ‘losses’ of 21.6 MCM/year at a financial cost of approximately Watershed degradation, deforestation, uncontrolled UGX 40 billion per year (equivalent to approxi- water abstraction by other water users, agricultural mately USD 20 million/year). runoff, as well as an increasing domestic, commer- cial, and industrial wastewater discharge are ad- As part of the Uganda Water CAS, brief studies versely impacting water quality and availability, as were undertaken to illustrate the costs of insufficient discussed throughout this report. As the quality of development and inadequate management of water surface water degrades, an increasing number of resources to Uganda. The illustrative case studies water supply utilities/NWSC towns are experienc- focused on a four water-related sectors, namely: ing serious difficulties in sourcing water and the cost (i) urban water supply and sanitation; (ii) energy/ of water treatment is rising steeply, as for example hydropower; (iii) agriculture; and (iv) environment in Kampala, Bushenyi, and Mbale. Falling ground- (wetlands). The studies drew on secondary sources water levels increase the cost of providing water— (in the cases of hydropower and wetlands) and either because wells must be relocated or they must primary data collection and analysis (in the cases be deepened with associated increases in the cost of of urban WSS and agriculture). The results are sum- pumping—as has been experienced in Wakiso and marized below. Mukono Districts, amongst others. Furthermore, a number of NWSC towns are reporting a need to WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION: maintain or replace water supply infrastructure at a much greater frequency than expected because of ADDITIONAL COST TO NWSC rising siltation of water sources. The implementa- TOWNS OF POOR SOURCE tion of these measures is costly, and rising costs are PROTECTION either passed on to consumers in the form of higher tariffs, or paid for by the state budget in the form of The costs of insufficient action in urban WSS can subsidies provided to water utilities. be disaggregated into a number of different com- ponents. For example: (i) households may incur Two case studies, for Kampala and Bushenyi water additional expenditures associated with inadequate supply, are described below. The results are thought provision of water supply. These expenditures to be indicative of the possible range of costs faced include the cost of sourcing water (time used in in other towns in the country where serious pollu- securing water and cost of buying water) and in tion and land degradation have caused significant rendering water potable (i.e., treating water); (ii) deterioration in water quality and availability at the individuals may experience water related diseases supply source. (e.g., gastro-intestinal diseases) related to the con- sumption of contaminated water. The cost of treating Kampala water supply such diseases is reflected both in private costs (costs to households) and public costs (costs to state budget Kampala, the capital of Uganda, has grown at an to the extent that access to health care is subsidized average rate of about a 5% since 2002 to a population by the state); and (iii) water utilities/providers incur of about 1.66 million. This has put intense pressure additional expenses associated with sourcing and on the Kampala water utility (NWSC) to expand treating water as a result of watershed degradation, safe and reliable water supply, which has grown to uncontrolled abstractions by competing users, and over 200,000 m3/day. The source of Kampala’s water water pollution. The focus of illustrative case study supply is a long narrow bay on the northwestern on urban WSS was on component (iii), and in par- shore of Lake Victoria (Murchison Bay). The quality ticular the costs to NWSC of poor catchment/source of water in the bay has deteriorated severely over protection. Information was obtained through focus the past 20 years—it is now covered with thick 42 The Costs of Inadequate Water Management and Development Figure 4-1: Annual water treatment chemical use for Kampala 4,000,000 Annual chemical use in kilograms 3,500,000 Alum 3,000,000 2,500,000 Soda ash 2,000,000 Chlorine gas 1,500,000 1,000,000 Chlorine 500,000 powder 0 Polymer 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Figure 4-2: Annual cost of water treatment chemicals for Kampala 2.00 1.80 1.60 Annual Cost (million USD) 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 green algae blooms and it is polluted by discharges This study focuses on the incremental costs that of raw sewage and wastewater from Kampala and NWSC has incurred due to the increasing use of surrounding towns and industries. The expansive chemicals (coagulants and disinfectants) in its efforts wetlands that formerly lay between Kampala and to adequately treat the deteriorating quality of raw the Bay, filtering sediment and pollution, are now water from the Murchison Bay over the period 2004 heavily encroached, partly drained and degraded to 2010. As shown in Figure 4-1, the use of chemi- with pollution from urban drainage. cals has increased significantly: aluminum sulphate (alum), the primary coagulant used for treatment, NWSC has coped with this problem in number of rose nearly 600% between 2004 and 2009, sodium ways, including increasing the use of chemicals to carbonate (soda ash) used to control Ph levels rose treat water, extending or expanding water treatment over 400%, chlorine gas used as a disinfectant rose plants, disposing of higher sludge volumes and about 150%, and chlorine powder rose over 800%. filtering increasing sediment loads, and moving the Polymers have recently been used instead of alum intake deeper into Lake Victoria in order to draw a (which reduces the need for soda ash). The increase higher quality of water. in chemical use is partly explained by a rising total 43 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy Figure 4-3: Annual incremental cost of water treatment chemicals for Bushenyi 30,000 25,000 20,000 Annual Cost in USD Alum 15,000 Soda Ash 10,000 Chlorine powder 5,000 29 0 2008 2009 2010 volume of water treated over the period (with the Katosi to deal both with increasing water demands completion of Gaba III in 2009). However, this has and pollution issues. been accompanied by an increase in the concentra- tion of chemicals on a per cubic meter basis. Bushenyi water supply Figure 4-2 summarizes the associated increase in wa- Bushenyi town is located in western Uganda, ap- ter treatment chemical cost between 2004 and 2010. proximately 320 km from Kampala in the Albert Nile This is the incremental cost, or in other words, the WMZ. The NWSC took over operation of Bushenyi’s costs that are additional to what NWSC would have water supply services from the Bushenyi/Ishaka had to spend had the water quality of Murchison Town Council in 2002. Bay not deteriorated, under reasonable assumptions. The figure shows that the total incremental cost is The source of raw water supply is a swamp located estimated to be about UGX 11.6 billion or USD 5.8 near Nyaruzinga. The quality of water in the swamp million over the period 2004 to 2010. The unit cost fluctuates seasonally, but has trended downward per cubic meter (m3) of incremental chemical usage due to encroachment into the wetland, non-point rose from an estimated UGX 5 per m3 in 2004 to UGX runoff pollution from nearby dairy farms and 56 per m3 in 2010. increased use of pesticides on nearby farms. Total water supply and the volume of treated water rose These estimates are consistent with those from the by about 60% between 2008 and 2010, but the quan- cost-benefit analysis conducted for relocating the tity of alum used to treat water nearly tripled over intake deeper into Lake Victoria to draw a higher the same period, from about 2000 kilograms (kg) to quality of water. The savings from reduced chemical about 6000 kg per month. use were estimated to reach UGX 28 billion (USD 14 million) over the period 2010 to 2016, at a cost The incremental cost of water treatment chemicals of approximately UGX 25 billion (USD 12 million) was estimated using the same approach and set of for moving the intake. The project was completed assumptions as in the Kampala case study. The re- in 2010. Despite the relocation, chemical costs have sults are shown in Figure 4-3. The total annual cost continued to rise. NWSC is currently considering the of the primary chemicals tripled between 2008 and establishment of a new intake and treatment plant in 2010, from just over UGX 20 million to UGX 63.5 44 The Costs of Inadequate Water Management and Development million USG (about USD 31,770 per year). The per as fresh water reservoirs that slowly release water, unit cost nearly doubled, from UGX 78 per m3 to either underground to replenish aquifers, or laterally about UGX 140 per m3. towards the streams and rivers. The slow release of water increases water availability during the dry NWSC serves 20 towns and cities, in addition to season for domestic use, edge cultivation, and live- Kampala and Bushenyi. Although data are not stock watering; keeps boreholes, shallow wells and readily available on the status of water sources springs functional; and moderates foods. As noted and chemical use for other NWSC towns, there is above, wetlands play a key role in filtering pollution. sufficient anecdotal evidence that the problems confronted in Kampala and Bushenyi are by no Uganda’s wetlands provide considerable goods and means unique. A hypothetical—but not entirely services. Over 70% of all wetlands in Uganda are unrealistic—calculation was made to better grasp used for three purposes: water storage, livestock the extent of the potential costs of poor source/ grazing, and natural tree harvesting (Wetlands catchment protection on NWSC towns, by orders Inspection Division, 2001). Wetlands are also used of magnitude only. Assuming the remaining NWSC for farming and fishing and provide construction towns are experiencing similar trends as in the case material and fuel. A significant share of seasonal wet- studies and that incremental annual costs lie in the lands—about 7% of the total area—is used by small- estimated range (that is, UGX 56–140 per m3), then scale farmers who produce crops, many of which those NWSC towns are spending an additional are sold in local markets (Wetlands Management UGX 880 million to 2.2 billion, equivalent to about Department et al. 2009). It is estimated that wetlands USD 0.44 to 1.1 million, per year to treat water from provide approximately 320,000 workers with direct increasingly degraded sources. It is important to employment and provide subsistence employment reiterate that chemical use is only one of a number for over 2.4 million Ugandans (MFPED, 2004). Over 5 of actions that NWSC is reportedly undertaking to million people depend on wetlands for water supply deal with this problem, but it alone represents a not (WMD et al 2009). Protecting Uganda’s wetlands is insignificant—and avoidable—cost. thus not only a sound economic policy, but can also contribute significantly to poverty reduction. WETLANDS: ECONOMIC COSTS A number of studies have attempted to place an OF DEGRADATION economic value on the goods and services provided As noted elsewhere in the report, Uganda’s wet- by wetlands in parts of Africa (Turpie et al, 1999) lands are extensive and are estimated to hold a and in Uganda, specifically. Estimates vary widely, fresh water reserve of more than 20 BCM, which is depending on the methodology used and the goods nearly 47% of the total renewable water resources and services included in the valuation. In 1998, it was available in the country. Most individual wetlands estimated that that the economic value of papyrus are linked to other wetlands through a network of for construction material was UGX 6 billion per permanent and seasonal streams, rivers, and lakes, year (or approximately USD 4.8 million per year); making them an essential part of the entire drain- the value of dry season grazing in wetlands and age system in Uganda (WMD et al. 2009). The total floodplains was estimated at UGX 18 billion year (or wetland area in Uganda consists of seasonally wet approximately USD 14.4 million per year) in terms of grasslands (49%); seasonally wet woodlands (16%) contribution to livestock production (Emerton and and permanent wetlands (15%) that contain papyrus Muramira, 1999). Papyrus harvesting and mat mak- and other sedges, reeds, and floating plants. ing alone have been estimated to contribute USD 200 per year per family in the rural wetlands of Eastern Apart from Lake Victoria in the east and south, Lake Uganda (IUCN, 2005). A recent study (WRI, 2009) Kyoga in the centre, and the Rift Valley lakes in the found that the potential revenues from sustainable west, most of Uganda’s surface water is absorbed and harvesting of papyrus are close to UGX 88 billion (or stored in its wetlands. The wetlands thus function approximately USD 51.8 million) per year. 45 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy Beyond these specific cases, there are few compre- breeding grounds in Mutanda and Mulehe hensive estimates of the economic value of goods Lake and the cultivation of crops such as and services provided by wetlands. It is frequently sweet potatoes, Irish potatoes, beans, cabbages cited that the direct production value from welt- and sorghum. ands is in the order of USD 300–600 per ha per year and that when non-marketed regulating services • NEMA estimates that 64% of the total seasonal (such as water purification and carbon sequestration) wetlands in Iganga and 68% in Pallisa have been are included, annual values can be as high as USD reclaimed for rice cultivation; 80% of wetlands 10,000 per ha. However, the source of these estimates in Jinja and 15% in Mukono have been drained cannot be verified. Two studies published in 2001 for various land uses (NEMA, 2008). In Kampala, appear to have the most reliable estimates (Karanja many sections of wetlands have been con- et al, and Haskoning et al, described in Yaron verted to industrial use or gradually taken and Moyini, 2004). These studies found that over by semi-slum residential housing the economic value of services and products pro- and used for unsustainable cultivation and vided by wetlands was between approximately waste disposal; USD 230 and 400 per ha per year. Assuming a wet- land area of 3 million ha (as estimated in 1999), the • Residential development is placing extreme economic value of all wetlands in Uganda in 2000 pressure on wetlands, notably in Nsooba was, therefore, between USD 690 million to 1.2 bil- Bulyera, Kiyanja Kansanga, Kyetinda, Mayanja, lion per year. and Nakivubo in Kampala district. In the case of Nakivubo wetland, the original area of intact Wetlands under threat wetland vegetation (mostly papyrus) of 4.4 km2 was reduced to less than 1.3 km2 by 2000, and Numerous accounts point to the fact that Uganda’s currently stands at less than 1 km2 . wetlands have been over-exploited and degraded and that many are currently under threat. The major Nationally, wetland area declined from approxi- causes include: encroachment and conversion for mately 3.2 million ha in 1964 to 3 million ha in 1999. agriculture and settlements, sand and clay min- Between 1999 and 2005, wetland area decreased ing, swamp fires, excessive sedimentation due to by another 336,000 ha (to reach about 2.66 million soil erosion associated with rampant deforestation ha). Using the estimates above, the wetlands lost and poor agricultural practices, and dumping of between 1999 and 2005 alone is equivalent to USD solid waste and sewerage discharge in some areas 78 million to 135 million per year. The economic cost (NEMA, 2008). Despite the absence of a systematic is significant, although caution is required in its review of the status of the wetlands in the country, interpretation as converting wetlands to other the following has been observed: uses also brings benefits. Still, given the significant products and services that wetlands provide in their • A reduction in wetland coverage, mostly due natural state, any modifications (e.g., for agricultural to conversion to cropland (reported in Iganga use) should be approached with caution. Indeed, District in southwestern Uganda) and the spread it is not at all obvious that the benefits of wetland of urban settlements, as in Kampala (NEMA, conversion outweigh the costs. For example, in 1998, 2007). In urban areas, wetlands often become the value of converted wetlands for agricultural pro- solid waste disposal sites; duction (rice) was estimated at approximately USD 220 per ha per year (Emerton and Muramira, 1999). • Drainage of wetlands for agricultural pro- This is lower than estimates of the value of wet- duction has been reported since the 1940s in lands intact (230 to 400 per ha per year, as pre- the Gutundwe, Murugyege and Nyarutovu sented above). The balance between developing wetlands. Cultivation up to the lake shores and conserving wetlands is discussed further in has led to siltation, reducing the size of fish Chapter 5. 46 The Costs of Inadequate Water Management and Development POWER: COST OF DELAYED to shift production to times when power is available and others (mainly larger enterprises) having to rely ELECTRICITY DEVELOPMENT AND on high-cost back-up generators. Using a Ugandan UNRELIABLE SUPPLY Regional Program on Enterprise Development As noted in Chapter 2, Uganda has one of the lowest (RPED) survey from 1998, it was found that manu- levels of per capita electricity consumption in the facturing firms that suffer from power supply prob- world, and only about 10% of Uganda’s population lems have diminished opportunity and ability to has access to grid electricity compared to an average make productive investments, with direct impacts of approximately 28% in Sub-Saharan Africa (World on their competitiveness and job creation (Reinikka Bank, 2007). Currently, 20% of the urban population and Svensson, 2001). is supplied with grid electricity and this falls to just 3% in rural areas where about 85% of Uganda’s In the agricultural sector, disruptions make agricul- population lives. Access to grid electricity is con- tural value-added processing prohibitively expen- centrated to Kampala, Entebbe, and Jinja, which sive and can hinder attempts to put in place adequate accounts for 70% of the urban population with such cold storage facilities for exports such as flowers, access (Government of Uganda, 2009a). fruits and vegetables. Lack of access to electricity restricts the introduction of new technology (for Electricity in Uganda is generated from hydropower, example, small, low-cost pumps for supplemental thermal power and co-generation from biomass. irrigation) and innovation, particularly in small Hydropower constitutes the majority of current businesses and enterprises. installed generation capacity (380 MW out of a total of 562 MW). Although hydropower has been iden- It has been estimated that agro-processing and other tified as the least-cost energy expansion option, its manufacturing firms in Uganda lose about 10% of significant potential has not been developed. This their sales from power outages, compared to 4% has carried large costs to the economy due to: on average in Sub-Saharan Africa (Dollar, 2008). According to the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey • Power disruptions and service cuts as load Database, 43.8% of surveyed firms in Uganda report- shedding remain a common practice; ed access to energy as being a business constraint. This places Uganda in the top-tier of countries where • In the residential sector, a large unmet demand firms have expressed such concerns. for power for both urban and rural populations; Unmet electricity demand • A significant use of thermal power to complement the shortfalls in hydropower generation; and The cost of unmet demand (CUD) in the residential sector may be estimated by the amount that resi- • An energy sector which is heavily dependent on dential consumers would be willing to pay for each biomass resources. additional unit of electricity consumption. In 2005, a willingness to pay (WTP) of USD 0.418 per kWh A number of studies have been undertaken to at- was estimated (Power Planning Associates, 2007). tempt to calculate the costs arising from each of these The weighted-average cost of un-served energy sources. The findings from some of the key studies (unmet demand and self-generation) has been esti- are reported below. mated to be as high as USD 0.389 per kWh. These are put in perspective by noting that at the time of The economic cost of power disruptions the calculations, the average retail tariff was USD and services cuts 0.117 per kWh. Businesses and industrial facilities in Uganda have An alternative estimate of the cost of unmet demand endured prolonged service cuts, with some having is derived by assuming a value of energy equiva- 47 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy lent to the contribution of energy to GDP. In other Mbale, Kapchorwa, Kisoro and Kabale. In addition, words, CUD is equal to the GDP divided by energy over 1.3 million people depend on the water trapped produced. For the year 2007, this calculation yielded in the forests in the Mubende-Kiboga hills, an impor- a cost of unmet demand at approximately UGX 7.7 tant watershed for the River Kafu (Government of billion per GWh, or approximately USD 4.4 million Uganda, 2009b). Land degradation and soil erosion per GWh (equivalent to USD 4.4 per kWh). In 2007, were estimated in 2002 to cost USD 625 million per load shedding (which is a small component of unmet year in terms of the value of lost nutrients to farmers demand) was estimated to be 37 GWh, meaning that (Yaron and Moyini, 2004). the cost of load shedding alone could have reached approximately USD 155 million in that single year. Cost estimates of the loss of forest cover are scarce. In a study conducted in 1999, watershed catchment Thermal power protection, erosion control and carbon sequestration services provided by Ugandan forests were valued The six-year delay in commissioning Bujagali (from at approximately UGX 300 billion per year (or end 2005 to expected end 2011) led to the increased approximately USD 250 million at the time the use of more costly thermal power generation facili- study was conducted). This value does not include ties over the same period, resulting in a shift from a all other services provided by forest, e.g., habitats predominantly low-cost hydro-based power genera- for wildlife and high-value eco-tourism opportu- tion system to a higher cost hydro/thermal mix of nities (Emerton and Muramira, 1999). Using this roughly equal proportion. As a result, GoU had to estimate, each year from 1990 onwards, an ad- subsidize the production of thermal power, at a cost ditional loss of approximately USD 5.5 million on of approximately USD 60 million per year, over the average was incurred due to declining forest cover. period 2006–2010. By 2005, this constituted an annual loss of over USD 82 million. Biomass dependency AGRICULTURE: IMPACT OF Those without access to electricity, remain heavily dependent on biomass resources, which are esti- RAINFALL VARIABILITY ON mated to account for over 90% of Uganda’s energy AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY needs. Households, small-scale industries (such as lime, brick and tile making) and a number of agro- As noted in various parts of this report, agricultural based industries (tea, tobacco and fishing) primarily productivity in Uganda is extremely low and has use biomass energy resources. The continued heavy generally lagged behind East Africa and other parts dependence on biomass is largely responsible for the of the world over the last three decades (Nivievskyi decimation of Uganda’s forest cover, with an annual and von Cramon-Taubadel, 2010). A number of fac- loss rate of about 2% and a decrease in total forest tors are potentially responsible, including declining cover of 27% from 1990 to 2005 (MWE, SPR, 2009). At soil fertility, land insecurity, and poor market ac- the present rate of deforestation, Uganda will likely cess. An almost complete reliance on rainfall with have to import fuel wood by 2020 (Government of the inability to compensate for seasonal or annual Uganda 2009b). Some districts, such as the Mayuge variability in water availability is another possible district, have lost all of their forests. contributing factor. Deforestation leads to soil erosion and significantly There is a vast literature on the economic impacts changes the hydrology of the watershed. It has been of climate—rainfall in addition to temperature—on estimated that about half of all soil lost in landslides agricultural productivity, including for a number is transmitted to the stream network thus affecting of African countries. These studies have largely the quality of the water resources (Knapen et. al. confirmed that climate has a significant effect on 2005). This is a severe problem in the districts of farm net revenues as a measure of agricultural 48 The Costs of Inadequate Water Management and Development productivity (for example, Seo et al, 2009; Methodology Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2008; Mendelsohn et al, 2007; and Kurukulasuriya et al, 2006). None A Ricardian approach, introduced by Mendelsohn of these has, however, considered the case of et al (1994), has gained considerable prominence Uganda specifically. amongst techniques used to estimate the economic impacts of climate on agriculture. This approach This illustrative case study focuses on the impact of is effectively a variant of hedonic pricing of envi- climate, and in particular, rainfall, on agricultural ronmental attributes. Unlike other approaches, it productivity at the farm level in Uganda. Although automatically captures adaptation, as farmers adjust there is anecdotal evidence linking climate variabil- inputs and outputs to match local conditions. ity to agricultural productivity in Uganda, this is the first attempt to investigate the relationship in a rigor- This analysis extends the standard Ricardian ap- ous manner. The analysis accounts for a number of proach by: (i) relaxing the rigid parametric specifica- other possible explanatory variables—e.g., access to tion commonly used by estimating a semi-paramet- markets, farm size, education, etc.—thereby making ric regression; (ii) using panel data, as opposed to it possible to identify the specific impact of rainfall cross-sectional; and (ii) capturing the heterogeneity on agricultural productivity. A background report on in local conditions by the use of micro-level data (i.e. “Climate and Agricultural Performance in Uganda� smallholder farms across Uganda). has been prepared, where the data, methodology, and results are presented in detail (see Nivievsky, The primary advantage of a semi-parametric ap- 2011). A summary is provided below. proach over a purely parametric regression is that a functional form is not imposed on the relationship Data between the dependant variable and the explanatory variables (e.g., here between crop productivity and The analysis is based on information contained in climate variables). This allows capturing complex the Uganda National Household Survey (UNHS) non-linear relationships, but it comes at the cost of ease 2005/6. The survey sample covers 4877 farm house- of interpretation. Although non-parametric regression holds in about 750 enumeration areas (communi- does not, by definition, produce point estimates of pa- ties) over two cropping seasons. The following are rameters that can be easily interpreted as first deriva- available: (i) socio-economic data at the household tives, elasticities, rates of change, etc., it does permit level; (ii) information on infrastructure, services and inference on whether an explanatory variable makes markets at the community level; and (iii) agricultural a significant contribution to dependant outcomes. production and marketing data at the household level for each of two cropping seasons. Dependant Variable The UNHS survey data is supplemented by informa- Agricultural productivity is taken as the total value tion on population, elevation and the coordinates of crop output per acre of agricultural land (L.O.ha). of more than 5000 urban units in Uganda (http:// Farm outputs are aggregated at the derived output www.fallingrain.com/world/UG/). Finally, rainfall unit prices. Net revenue (total value of output minus and temperature data are taken from the CRU TS the total value of inputs) could be a better proxy of datasets produced by the Climate Research Unit net productivity. However, the data on inputs con- at the University of East Anglia, United Kingdom. tained in the dataset show a very low level of usage This dataset is the most comprehensive and repu- and might not reflect underlying input use patterns. table global dataset of historical climate. On a 0.5º basis (about 50 km at the equator) worldwide for Explanatory Variables the period 1901–2006, the dataset contains monthly mean precipitation and mean temperature, amongst A number of variables are included as possible deter- other variables. minants of L.O.ha. Household endowments (land, 49 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy farm implements, and human capital) are generally Temperature and rainfall are included as averages accepted as essential determinants of production at over three critical bimodal cropping periods: (i) land the household level. Larger farm holdings, for exam- preparation and sowing phase; (ii) crop cultivation ple, may enable households to exercise economies of and weeding (or vegetation) phase; and (iii) harvest scale by adopting modern technologies. The size of a phase. Two sets of temperature and rainfall variables household’s agricultural land holdings (AGLAND) are included in the estimation. The 2005/06 monthly and the value of its agricultural and non-agricultural averages (av.t and av.prec) reflect the variability assets (L.ENT.ASST—in logarithms) control for of the climate over each of the cropping periods. these factors. Human capital comprises education, Deviations from long-term averages (av.t.dev and experience, skills, and capabilities, captured in this av.prec.dev) control for climate peculiarities in that analysis by the level of education of the household year or season. head (EDUC.HEAD). Other internal drivers in- clude the age of the head of the household (AGE. More detailed descriptions of the variables, their HEAD), his/her sex (SEX.HEAD) and household summary statistics, and the model that is specified size (HH.SIZE). for the empirical estimation is provided in Annex E. Urbanization and higher incomes from economic Results growth increase the demand for marketed agricul- tural products, which will tend to increase commod- The results are presented in Table 4-1 and described ity prices and stimulate agricultural production for below. the market. The extent (or potential demand) of the market i (L.EXT.MKT—in logarithms) is defined as Parametric effects (top part of the table) are not the weighted sum of the market sizes of the urban entirely surprising. The seasonal dummy (Dseason) is units around i. highly significant, with the coefficient showing that on average farmers were about 157% more produc- Dummy variables TR.INFR and FIN.INFR control tive in the first season (in terms of the total value for the transport and financial infrastructure in the of crop output per acre) than in the second season. community. TRAV.TIME.GCM controls for better Quality of soils (Dsoil quality (fair) and Dsoil quality (good)) is access to consumer, input, and output markets via also highly significant. Soils of ‘fair’ and ‘good’ lower search, monitoring, and transport costs by quality increase productivity by 18.5% and 28.4%, measuring the travel time to the most common respectively. Soil texture is not significant. Access local consumer market using standard means of to financial infrastructure has a significant positive transport. The dummy variable OFF.FARM controls effect on farm productivity; the availability of finan- for whether a household member participates in cial infrastructure (FIN.INFR) increases productiv- off-farm markets (receives off-farm income). The ity by 16%, all else equal. The SEX.HEAD dummy variable ELEV measures the altitude at which a is significant at 5% level; if a household is led by a household is located, controlling for differences in man, productivity increases by 6.5%. The community natural conditions. random effect—incorporated in the error term which takes into account that farmers located in the same Soil texture is controlled via the DSoil topology (sloppy&hilly) area/community can share un-modeled factors—is dummy constructed from the data in the UNHS highly significant. dataset. It captures whether soil texture is primarily sloping and/or hilly or whether it is predominantly As regards the non-parametric and univariate terms flat. Soil quality is controlled with two dummy vari- of the model, 3 out of 8 terms (i.e. elevation, age of the ables available in the UNHS dataset: DSoil quality (fair) head of the household, and travel time to consumer and DSoil quality (good) dummies capture whether farmers market) do not make a significant contribution to consider their soils of ‘fair’ or ‘good’ quality (the the overall fit of the model. Education of the head baseline is soil of ‘bad’ quality). (EDUC.HEAD), assets (L.ENT.ASST), household 50 The Costs of Inadequate Water Management and Development Table 4-1: Determinants of agricultural productivity in Uganda: semi-parametric regression results Dependant variable Log(value of crop output per acre) Parametric part of model Estimate t value Significance Intercept 3.046 11.085 *** Dseason 1.575 2.769 *** Dsoil quality (fair) 0.185 4.425 *** Dsoil quality (good) 0.284 6.477 *** Dsoil topology (sloppy&hilly) 0.026 0.968 TR.INFR 5.8e-05 0.001 SEX.HEAD 6.49e-02 2.152 ** OFF.FARM 2.10e-02 0.764 FIN.INFR 1.61e-01 2.542 ** Non-parametric part of model edf F(app) Significance g(L.EXT.MKT) 1.000 3.408 * g(ELEV) 4.494 1.585 g(HH.SIZE) 3.223 18.442 *** g(AGE.HEAD) 2.246 1.829 g(AGLAND) 7.633 71.835 *** g(TRAV.TIME.GCM) 1.000 0.422 g(L.ENT.ASST) 2.852 15.422 *** g(EDUC.HEAD) 7.833 8.001 *** f(av.tsowing,av.precsowing) 6.291 2.552 ** f(av.tcultiv,av.preccultiv) 6.681 1.827 * f(av.tharvst,av.precharvst) 3.000 2.142 * f(av.t.devsowing,av.prec.devsowing) 3.000 3.952 *** f(av.t.devcultiv,av.prec.devcultiv) 8.999 3.241 *** f(av.t.devharvst,av.prec.devharvst) 3.000 8.139 *** Random effect (community) 64.132 1.826 *** Model fit R-sq (adjusted) 26.5% Deviance explained 28.5% Number of observations 4877 Notes: ***, ** and * indicate significance at the 1, 5 and 10% levels, respectively. edf = effective degrees of freedom of the smooth function term. 51 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy size (HH.SIZE), and extent of the market (L.EXT. actual level of rainfall is increased between 0% and MKT) positively affect farm productivity. The size 5%, for a total of 217 combinations of the impact of agricultural land (AGLAND) is inversely related of rainfall changes on predicted total crop output to farm productivity. The effect is negative until per acre. land holdings reach a threshold of approximately 30 acres, leveling out thereafter (a pattern that is gener- Figure 4-4 provides a graphical representation of the ally consistent with previous parametric studies on results of the simulation exercise. Average crop pro- Africa, e.g., Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2008). ductivity change across households is on the vertical access and average rainfall increase across cropping All of the joint impacts of temperature and rainfall phases is on the horizontal access. Numbers that (both monthly averages and deviations) are signifi- accompany points in the figure denote a particular cant, at least at the 10% significance level, and all the combination of rainfall increases in each of the three climate terms explain about 16% of the model target phases of the season. For example, ‘550’ represents variable variation. Deviations from the long-term a 5% increase in rainfall in the sowing phase, a 5% climate average seem to exert a stronger impact on increase in rainfall in the weeding phase, and a 0% farm productivity. The joint impact of temperature increase in rainfall in the harvesting phase, result- and rainfall differs by cropping phases. For example, ing in 3.31% average increase in crop output across a combination of relatively low temperature and cropping phases. higher rainfall during the land preparation and sowing phase produces a higher outcome in terms As the figure shows, the cloud of points that corre- of the total value of output per hectare as compared spond to outcomes of various rainfall scenarios forms to other possible combinations. a hexahedron. The most important conclusion—that is known intuitively, but has never been rigorously Impact of rainfall on crop productivity investigated—is that it is critically important for crop productivity that water is available at the right time A number of steps are followed in order to quantify and in the right amount. The ‘000’ to ‘050’ and the the individual impacts of rainfall on crop produc- ‘505’ to ‘555’ sides of hexahedron demonstrate the tivity. First, total crop output per acre of land is impact of water availability in the weeding phase predicted under the baseline scenario (2005/6), i.e., of the season. A 1% increase in water availability in using the original data and model estimates. Second, the weeding phase increases crop productivity by total crop output per acre of land under the rainfall 0.64%, all else equal. The ‘000’ to ‘005’ and ‘505’ to change scenario (described below) is predicted. ‘555’ sides of the figure show the opposite effect: a 1% Third, productivity growth is calculated as the aver- increase in water availability in the harvesting phase age percentage change of predicted crop output per decreases productivity by 0.78%. Maximum produc- acre under the baseline and rainfall change scenarios. tivity growth (of about 3.3%) is achieved when the availability of water is increased only in the sowing The rainfall scenario is constructed to separate out and weeding phases. Moreover, the weeding phase the individual impact of rainfall: all other determi- dominates as the outcome of ‘050’ is almost equiva- nants (temperature, soil quality, farm size, etc.) are lent to that of the ‘550’ scenario. Indeed, the ‘005’ to kept at their constant values in 2005/6. Deviations ‘505’ and ‘050’ to ‘550’ sides of the hexahedron show in rainfall from the long-term normal levels are also that the impact of water availability on crop produc- corrected for the corresponding change in actual tivity in the sowing season is almost negligible. rainfall. As each of the three critical cropping peri- ods are modeled—(i) land preparation and sowing The results of this analysis demonstrate that poor phase; (ii) crop cultivation and weeding (or vegeta- water management in agriculture has significant tion) phase; and (iii) harvest phase—it is possible negative impacts on total crop output, and that these to investigate the differential impact of changes in are high indeed. As mentioned above, a 1% increase rainfall at each phase. In each cropping period, the in water availability in the weeding phase increases 52 The Costs of Inadequate Water Management and Development Figure 4-4: Impacts of changes in rainfall on total crop output per acre Notes: vertical axis: average crop productivity change across households; horizontal axis: average rainfall increase across cropping phases; numbers that accompany points in the figure denote a particular combination of rainfall increases in each of the three phases of the season; for example, ‘550’ represents a 5% increase in rainfall in the sowing phase, a 5% increase in rainfall in the weeding phase, and a 0% increase in rainfall in the harvesting phase, resulting in 3.31% average increase across cropping phases. crop productivity by 0.64% (all else equal), which ha or 10.9 million acres), this would translate into means an additional USD 0.32 per acre on average USD 3.5 million of additional crop output. Maximum (calculated using smallholder farms data). Taking all productivity growth of 3.3% would translate into an cultivable area in Uganda (estimated at 4.4 million additional USD 18 million. 53 5 Prioritization of Actions in Uganda’s Water Sector FRAMEWORK FOR PRIORITIZATION OF POSSIBLE ACTIONS In Chapter 2, the main objectives for Uganda’s water sector, as reflected in the NDP and related sector documents, were discussed. These relate to improved water resources management and improved service de- livery. Chapter 3 explored possible actions that could be undertaken to tackle emerging issues and move towards realizing the objectives. This chapter evaluates the actions in relation to particular ‘principles for prioritization’. Certain actions emerge as ‘more obvious’ in that they largely address all priority criteria; in other cases, there are strategic choices that have will have to be made. Principles for Prioritization The ‘success’ of specific actions in meeting the objectives depends on the criteria by which they are judged or measured. The NDP and related sector documents highlight the desirability of outcomes that are (i) ‘sustainable’ and (ii) impact at multiple scales. These criteria can be taken as the core ‘principles for prioritization’ and are further discussed below. Sustainability: The sustainability of outcomes can be measured with respect to economic, environmental and/or social concerns: • Economic Sustainability: This relates to the goal of effectively utiliz- ing water resources for securing economic growth and individual prosperity in Uganda. This will include support for the engines of growth such as hydropower, tourism, industry, and agriculture. This also requires prioritizing options to maximize economic returns and adequate attention to operations and maintenance to maximize economic life and avoid a “build-neglect-rebuild� approach. • Environmental Sustainability: This relates to the goal of ensuring that the water resources are effectively managed in a way that enhances ecosystems, conserves soil and water systems, and improves water 55 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy quality. This also requires adequate attention • Growth-Oriented: This perspective focuses on the to environmental safeguards in water-related extent to which activities contribute to improv- programs and projects to reduce or mitigate ing the national GDP, exports, tourism, district any adverse impacts and maximize positive environmental performance, or to fueling the environmental outcomes. engines of sustainable growth (e.g. through contribution to energy development). • Social Sustainability: This relates to the goal of ensuring basic water-related services to all in • Poverty Targeted: This perspective focuses on Uganda. This includes meeting needs of domes- the contribution of activities to improving tic and municipal supplies, smallholder agricul- livelihoods at the more ‘micro’ level—e.g. ture, livestock, artisanal fisheries, and in-stream through improvement in productivity of rainfed uses. This also requires adequate attention to agriculture, livestock or fisheries—and/or to social safeguards and meaningful stakeholder interventions that are specifically aimed at pov- participation in water-related programs and erty alleviation. projects to reduce or mitigate any adverse social impacts (e.g. resettlement) and maximize owner- Ideally, indicators would be developed for each of ship and social development goals. the criteria in order to measure progress towards reaching the objectives. Moving to this next stage Scale of Impact: The scale of impact refers to how is not possible here because the quantitative tools activities contribute to overall economic growth required to utilize the framework fully have not been (e.g., at national or district level) and/or to poverty developed for this broad level analysis. However, alleviation (at household and community levels). the below box illustrates the types of indicators that Box 5-1: Criteria, Illustrative Interventions and Indicators Indicators are needed in order to be able to measure progress towards reaching the objectives. For example, growth-oriented interventions to improve water resources management could be measured by a number of indicators, such as hydropower generation, value addition in agriculture, and/or eco-tourism receipts. Similarly, improved service delivery for the rural poor could be measured by indicators related to access (e.g., to elec- tricity, sanitation or water supply). The below table provides an illustrative set of indicators, categorized by the criteria described above. This table is meant to be indicative only, that is, to provide an example of the types of indicators or metrics that could be used to measure results. Table 5-1: Criteria, illustrative interventions/actions and indicators Scale of Impact Major Criteria Growth-oriented Poverty-targeted Economic • Value addition in agriculture and export-oriented • Agricultural productivity commercial crops • HH income (through agriculture, fisher- • Access to improved water supply ies, livestock) • Hydropower generation • Access to electricity • Eco-tourism Sustainability Environmental • Area of well-managed wetlands • Small-scale fisheries • Area of well-managed watersheds • Health and productivity of small-scale • Water quality index of major water systems livestock activities • Habitat quality for biodiversity Social • Meaningful stakeholder participation in WMZ and • Access to improved water supply Catchment management • Access to improved sanitation • Flood damages and livelihood impacts 56 GoU, Development Partner and World Bank Activities in Water and Related Sectors might be used to measure results. Ultimately, the resilience and the water quality knowledge base appropriate indicators would need to be identified for pollution management. and refined by the various stakeholders for each specific criteria of interest. • The development of asset management systems is critical for all water infrastructure to provide APPLYING THE PRIORITIZATION the basis for determining investment priorities (to better target available financial resources), FRAMEWORK TO POSSIBLE determine operations and maintenance require- ACTIONS IN THE WATER SECTOR ments to improve infrastructure sustainability, and prevent expensive infrastructure failures In this section, the prioritization framework present- (often environmental disasters) and the “build- ed above is used to evaluate the possible actions. The neglect-rebuild� default approach. This would actions are evaluated according to their contribution also help target Uganda’s scarce financial re- to meeting the two main criteria of (i) sustainability sources to other socio-economic sectors in the from economic, social and environmental perspec- pursuit of broad-based economic growth. tives and (ii) scale of impact, i.e., growth oriented or poverty targeted. There is not necessarily a conflict • Land use planning such as flood zoning is amongst these criteria; however, specific actions critical to manage climate risks. Investments can contribute to a greater or lesser degree towards in topographic surveys and analysis of past meeting them. As noted above, through the priori- hydrologic events that help create such zones tization process, two categories of actions emerge: is critical to providing information about the those that are ‘more obvious’ in the sense that they socio-economic vulnerability to environmental contribute to most if not all of the criteria, and those risks such as climate threats. This would help that contribute to the criteria to varying degrees and design appropriate safety nets such as insurance thus represent a strategic choice. Each of these is schemes to both protect the poor and buffer the discussed in turn. economy against these threats. The More Obvious Investment Options… • Well functioning, well-staffed, modern insti- tutions are a pre-requisite for effective water Many of the actions presented in Chapter 3 will con- management and service delivery and for tribute to all sustainability and scale criteria in some providing the associated economic, social, and way, and the choice of undertaking them is merely environmental benefits. a tactical one, that is, a question of exactly how and when these are to be rolled out given the technical, …and the more Difficult Ones… socio-economic, political, and financial conditions that prevail at that time. A few illustrative examples Other cases are more nuanced or ‘difficult’, with are provided below: actions (or an appropriate balance amongst them) having to be weighed based on their relative • Improving hydromet systems will increase impact on the various sustainability and scale resilience to floods (reducing socio-economic criteria. These choices are not simply tactical in vulnerability to disasters) and help to oper- nature, but rather represent choices that Uganda ate water infrastructure better (improving will take, ultimately defining its development economic performance). They will also help path and the corresponding structure of the to improve weather forecasting and com- water sector. The table below lists a number of munication (creating a positive impact on these strategic choices, and shows by shading the both growth and livelihoods). Environmental degree to which they address sustainability and ends will be achieved by improving climate scale criteria (the darker the shade, the more the contribution). Admittedly, the shading is subjec- 57 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy Table 5-2: Strategic choices in the water sector Sustainability Scale Poverty-targeted Growth-oriented Environmental Economic Social  Investment Choices System Storage             Small (e.g. checkdams) 1 1       1 Large Storage (involving inter-basin transfers) 1 1     1 1 Groundwater Development             Drinking water only   3       3 Multipurpose uses 2 3     2 3 Flood Management             Structural Measures 1 1     1 1 Non-Structural Measures 2 2     2 3 Climate Adaptation             to Historical Variability 3       3 3 to projected Climate Change 1       1 1 Agriculture             Rainfed 1 3 3   3 Irrigated 3 1     3   Energy systems             Small Hydropower (off-grid, mini, micro)   1       2 Large Hydropower (on the Nile) 3       3 1 Water Supply and Sanitation             Urban 3 3 3   3   Rural   3 1     3 Environmental Services             Wetland Management 1 2 3   1 3 Watershed/sustainable land management 2 3 3   2 2 Biodiversity, Wildlife, and Tourism 3 1 3   3 1 Water Quality Management 2 1 3   2 1 Note: the darker the shade, the more the contribution to sustainability and scale criteria. 58 GoU, Development Partner and World Bank Activities in Water and Related Sectors tive and could be debated at length. However, is likely to be small in relation to gains known to the below table attempts to indicate the relative be possible in the rainfed sector’ (Draft Irrigation contribution of actions in meeting the criteria, Master Plan, 2009). to highlight that certain actions involve real trade- offs, and to emphasize that a balanced approach is There is a need to give balanced focus to rainfed therefore needed. Following the table is a discussion agriculture, and to explore and implement produc- of some of actions that constitute strategic choices. tivity improvements that would support the liveli- hoods and food security of the vast majority of the Rainfed Agriculture and Irrigated Agriculture: rural population engaged in agriculture. In principle Balancing the development of irrigation in rainfall is sufficient to sustain crops in large parts Uganda with improving the productivity of of Uganda (not including the ‘cattle corridor’), but largely rainfed agriculture. its high variability has led to soil moisture deficien- cies at critical periods of plant growth, which has The comparison of currently irrigated area to been exacerbated by widespread soil degradation potentially irrigated area is striking. As noted ear- and low soil moisture retention (NWRA, 2010). lier, 14,000 ha to 20,000 ha of formal irrigation has A number of measures could be implemented to been developed, with an additional 42,000 ha to improve growing conditions, including soil 67,000 ha of informal irrigation, primarily on man- conservation and restoration, supplemental irriga- aged wetlands. This is only a fraction of Uganda’s tion using groundwater, and rainwater harvesting. estimated potentially irrigable area, which ranges At the same time, economically-viable investments from about 200,000 ha to 450,000 ha. However, as to improve and expand irrigated agriculture will striking is the comparison of potentially irrigated continue to be important. These should primarily area to potentially cultivable area in Uganda: poten- be targeted to improving performance of existing tially irrigable area is itself only a very small fraction schemes and supporting larger-scale commercial of potentially cultivable area, which is estimated to operations (ideally private) that produce crops of be about 4.4 million ha. In other words, even at the a high-value and/or with significant export poten- high end, potential irrigated area represents only tial, thereby contributing to the overall economic 10% of cultivable area. As noted in MWE’s draft growth of the country. Any plans to use permanent Irrigation Master Plan 2010, ‘it is obvious there- or seasonal wetlands for irrigation development fore that the irrigated portion of the agriculture should be approached with caution, given their sector is always going to be small in relation to ar- significant social, environmental and economic value able farming.’ (refer below). The NDP prioritizes agriculture amongst the key Large Hydropower (on the Nile) and Small productive sectors driving economic growth, and Hydropower (off-grid, mini, micro): A balanced establishes irrigation as the third of eight priorities. approach to hydropower generation. Focus is placed on the rehabilitation of the five exist- ing government irrigation schemes and the establish- There is an estimated hydropower potential of just ment of new irrigation schemes (five large and some over 2300 MW for hydropower sites in Uganda along 50 ‘model’ micro-irrigation schemes). This is consis- the river Nile. Of this, current installed capacity is tent with MWE and Ministry of Agriculture, Animal 200 MW at Owen Falls; 250 MW at Bujagali, expected Industries and Fisheries (MAAIF) policy statements to be commissioned in 2011; and planning is in the and plans on reinvigorating the agricultural sector, early stages for Karuma, with a generation capacity with an emphasis on irrigation expansion to sup- of 250 MW to 700 MW. The substantial untapped port commercial agriculture. There is relatively less potential for large hydropower could serve both emphasis placed on increasing the productivity of the currently under-served and growing domestic rainfed agriculture, notwithstanding the fact that, market as well as the regional market (e.g., through ‘… a reinvigorated and expanded irrigation sector the East Africa Power Pool). 59 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy There are, however, concerns related to hydropower towns). 35% of the rural population does not development in Uganda. Reliance on large hydro- have access to safe water, which translates into power on the Nile could make Uganda’s energy sec- about 9 million people. Functionality is reported tor vulnerable to hydrologic variability and change. to be 80% (although some estimates are as low Lake Victoria—the principal natural water source as 60%). Only 41% of Uganda’s districts are on for the cascade of hydropower projects along the track to meet national sanitation targets. Nile—is highly sensitive to changes in climatic pa- rameters (NWRA, 2010). Indeed, Uganda has already • Large Town WSS: On all measures, except for felt its vulnerability, e.g., during the drought period sanitation coverage, NWSC towns fare well. All of 2003–6 when hydropower generation at Lake have piped water schemes, and access rates are Victoria outlet was affected by low lake levels, which above 40% (Kampala is at the average access rate were in turn exacerbated by needed generation. This for NWSC of 73%). Water is supplied in most single purpose mode of operation for maximizing towns 20–24 hours/day, but there are reported hydropower generation naturally affected other ‘dry zones’ of poor and intermittent supply due water users as well, although there is limited infor- to network problems. As noted in Chapter 4, mation to quantify the impacts. For these reasons, non-revenue water is an issue, averaging 35.8% further hydropower investments will need to be overall and 42.9% in Kampala. According to the coordinated and sequenced for multi-purpose op- NWSC annual report of 2009, 70% of NRW is due eration and trade-offs, including for agriculture and to illegal consumption, with inaccurate metering water supply and sanitation. Finally, the discovery also being a contributing factor. In the 14 towns of oil introduces other generation options, but these with sewerage system, average coverage is about will have to be considered carefully in light of low 6.4%. Coverage in Kampala is about 5%, one of carbon trajectory development. the lowest due to its scale. Micro/mini hydropower options are not insignifi- • Small Town WSS: 30% of small DWD towns do cant—installed capacity is at about 30 MW, but some not have piped water schemes and the range in 220 MW of potential capacity exists—and could access to ‘improved water sources’ varies from serve two targeted purposes. In the shorter term, 1% to 99%, with the average being 51%. Some micro/mini hydropower could meet some of the systems are ‘inactive’ for days, primarily due to private sector suppressed demand in select areas energy deficits for pumping water. The existing (e.g., mines, large-scale agricultural operations, etc.). sewerage coverage in small towns is virtually In the medium to longer term, smaller hydropower non-existent; most households depend on on- sites developed primarily by the private sector could site sanitation and sludge treatment plants are serve isolated grids and rural areas that might oth- non-existent in most small towns. erwise be dependent on non-renewable resources, namely fuel wood. From a poverty alleviation perspective, currently and into the future the greatest needs are in rural Water Supply and Sanitation in Rural and WSS, given its low performance and the number of Urban Areas: Striking the balance between people affected. Poor access is essentially an issue providing growing urban areas with improved of inadequate source development and poor rural water supply and sanitation and providing rural water distribution networks. This is exacerbated areas with basic services. by a lack of technical, administrative and financial management capacity at the district level, and ex- The needs are great across water supply and sanitation: tremely low budget allocations. Rainwater harvest- ing is an important low-cost option for increasing • Rural WSS: Rural areas have the lowest perfor- water availability that has not been fully tapped. mance measures in terms of access, functionality Continual re-districting exercises have implications and sanitation (relative to urban small and large on the costs (primarily administrative) and efficiency 60 GoU, Development Partner and World Bank Activities in Water and Related Sectors of implementation of improved rural WSS at the tion coverage has not, however, been matched district level. by improved hygiene behavior, and national handwashing coverage currently stands at only In light of urbanization, economic growth and in- 21%. There are a number of actions (enforcement, dustrialization trends, investments in WSS in large promotion and linking demand to supply) that (NWSC) towns are important. In order to sustain need to be undertaken to accelerate rural sanita- the gains in access to improved water supply and tion uptake. sanitation achieved by NWSC and meet demands in the medium term, a number of key investments Although sanitation coverage in urban areas is will be required in the next five years. Many invest- higher than in the rural areas, the health effects ments are reaching near the end of their useful lives of poor sanitation are more marked in the urban and are in need of immediate rehabilitation. If no areas, due to a higher population density, as annual action is taken, this investment could be lost and at outbreaks of cholera in low income high density a very high risk to provision of water in major cities. areas can attest. Most people in urban areas depend Therefore, there is need for targeted investment to on on-site sanitation, with many constructing sep- update and upgrade water delivery and distribution tic tanks or latrines which are emptied when full. systems in critical urban areas. Moreover, major net- Many urban areas, particularly small towns, do work expansion investment will be needed to meet not have sludge treatment plants or safe sludge dis- the rapidly rising new demand. Utility performance posal facilities. The problem has been exacerbated should also be tackled, and in particular NWSC’s by the introduction of emptiable school toilets by issues with high non-revenue water. Although it Ministry of Education and Sports (MoES), to cater is estimated that future industrial water demand for the high enrollment in primary and secondary will be small relative to other consumptive uses, schools. In addition to lack of sludge treatment industrial pollution could become an increasing is- plants, most small towns and schools do not have sue if regulations are not strengthened and enforced access to cesspool emptiers, which has led to unsafe (NWSC, 2010). emptying of toilets and direct disposal of sludge into the environment. Although small (DWD) towns are considered to be urban, they confront both rural and urban chal- In both rural and urban areas, providing water at ac- lenges. Like rural areas, a major issue is limited ceptable quality standards is becoming increasingly source development and distribution systems. For difficult. There are documented cases of ‘utilities’/ those DWD towns that are connected to a larger service providers having to source water at greater (public/private) system, the coverage is generally distances, build additional water treatment facilities, confined to the town center with limited opportu- use more chemicals, build extra storage capacity, nity for network expansion. This is due to lack of etc., in an effort to cope with degrading watersheds financing, low cost recovery, weak technical capac- or declining availability from existing sources (e.g., ity, and quality and availability issues (refer below). groundwater). There are significant ‘coping costs’ Therefore from a ‘needs’ perspective, interventions associated with such band-aid measures that do not targeting small DWD towns are a priority. Pockets alone offer a permanent solution (refer Chapter 4). A of poor households in densely populated peri-urban longer-term solution would focus on the root causes areas are also a growing priority as many increas- of the problem, which is one of management of and ingly have to rely on more expensive vendors when protection at the supply source. existing wells become contaminated and/or water kiosks run dry. Small Storage and Larger Storage: The classic debate about big dams and smaller alternatives. There has been a steady increase in rural sanita- tion coverage from 57% in 2005 to 70% in 2010, Over the past several decades, GoU has invested in despite low budget allocations. Increasing sanita- small water infrastructure/storage, primarily for 61 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy livestock but also meant to provide for domestic Wetlands Development and Conservation: use, irrigation, and fisheries. It is reported that over Protecting wetlands and developing them for 1000 small valley dams and tanks have been con- “productive� purposes. structed. However, only 26% of these ‘Water for Production’ (WfP) facilities are fully functional. Well-managed wetlands actually do provide a host The main causes cited are poor siting, design, and of “productive� functions, as discussed in Chapter construction and lack of community ownership 4. The decrease in Uganda’s wetland areas is alarm- which has led to heavy rates of siltation and ‘me- ing, leading to the diminishment of economically, chanical problems’. socially and environmentally important services. Wetlands provide several important ecosystem Small water storage structures are needed to pro- functions, including stabilization of the hydrological vide for livestock and for other multipurpose uses, cycle and microclimates, protection of riverbanks, particularly considering that ‘cumulative WfP stor- and retention of nutrients and natural sewage treat- age capacity’ currently stands at about 22 MCM, ment. A case study on Nakivubo Swamp found that which is less than 5% of the estimated water demand the economic value of the wetland’s wastewater pu- for crops, livestock, fisheries and rural industries. rification and nutrient retention services alone is in Accordingly, GoU has prioritized upscaling water the order of USD 1 to 1.75 million per year (Emerton, harvesting and storage through the rehabilitation et al., 1999). Wetlands also serve as freshwater reser- of small dams and valley tanks, as well as the voirs, releasing water slowly to the major drainage construction of new ones. However, aggressive basins and helping to ensure a more continuous plans that are already underway to rehabilitate water supply, particularly during the dry season. and build additional valley dams and tanks can be questioned given their historical performance. Wetlands play a major—and in many parts of the It is important that the root causes of the failure of country, primary—role in providing subsistence and almost 75% of existing valley tanks and dams be incomes to the rural poor, in addition to contribut- understood before plans are implemented to re- ing to the larger economy. As discussed in Chapter habilitate defunct structures and/or to construct 4, wetlands are estimated to supply direct and sub- new ones. In particular, the supply-driven nature sistence employment for millions of Ugandans and of earlier investments, which is largely responsible have been valued at over USD 1 billion per year. In for non-functionality, must yield to a more demand- many parts of the country, wetland products and driven approach. services are the sole source of income and liveli- hoods and the primary safety net for the poorest Larger scale water storage is a central feature of the households (WRI, 2009). GoU’s proposed program to pump or ‘gravitate water from areas of plenty to those areas which face It is often argued that Uganda as a developing perpetual scarcity (water stressed areas)’. MWE un- country does not have the “luxury� of conserv- dertook feasibility studies in 2006–7 for such bulk ing its wetlands and should use them for agricul- water (or inter-basin) transfer schemes in 9 districts, tural purposes. Conversion of wetlands to other and identified 78 schemes involving 80 dams, 14 uses carries significant social, environmental and wells, 8 intakes from lakes to create storage of some economic costs, and any modifications—whether 425 MCM of water. However, very little information for agricultural, industrial or residential develop- is publicly available on the feasibility studies, and it ment—should be approached with caution and with is not clear whether other alternatives that are less a careful assessment of the benefits and the costs. costly in environmental, social and economic terms Further, the distributional implications of wetland have been exhausted. It bears repeating that, ‘inter- development are important, given that the poorest basin transfers should be the solutions of last resort segments of Ugandan society could be dispropor- and only adopted where the need is pressing and al- tionately impacted. Nonetheless, it is possible that ternatives non-existent’ (Irrigation Master Plan, 2010). managed wetland development—in particular for 62 GoU, Development Partner and World Bank Activities in Water and Related Sectors agriculture—would have the potential to support viable alternative to mitigating floods in Uganda. both poverty alleviation and economic growth However, opportunities exist for further develop- (Irrigation Master Plan, 2010). Uganda’s wetland ment of community-level infrastructure (e.g. raised strategy recognizes the need for balancing conserva- platforms, floating homes, etc.) that can increase tion and development objectives in the sustainable resilience to floods. Given this setting, non-structural management of these critical resources. measures will be critical to effectively reduce flood impacts in Uganda. These could include a combina- Flood Management—Structural and tion of locational measures (reducing the damage by Non-Structural Measures: A balance between avoiding it, e.g. through hazard mapping, wetland reducing flood impacts through structural conservation/management; land use planning, re- measures and using softer approaches. forestation); operational measures (e.g. forecasting and early warning systems, preparedness, rapid As discussed in Chapter 2, floods are among the most response); and risk transfer (e.g. crop insurance for devastating natural disasters in Uganda. In the last farmers). two decades, there have been at least 14 major flood events, affecting an average of about 68,000 people. Groundwater Development—Drinking Water And, natural disasters are on the rise. A recent study Supply only or Multiple Use: Developing was undertaken (as part of the Uganda Water CAS) groundwater to support multi-purpose uses, in to examine trends in historical climate, including in addition to drinking water. natural disasters. The analysis found that climate- related disasters, predominantly flood-related, have There is relatively limited information on ground- markedly increased. However, trends in natural di- water availability in Uganda. As part of MWE’s sasters are not synonymous with trends in climate per NWRA (2011), a rapid country-level assessment was se, as a natural disaster is a function of both a natural undertaken to estimate renewable groundwater re- hazard (climate event) and inherent vulnerability. sources and groundwater use for domestic purposes. The major finding is that, “estimated renewable In Uganda, the impacts of natural hazards, including groundwater resource exceeds projected demand for floods, are exacerbated by a number of factors that domestic water supply in non-NWSC areas [that is, increase the vulnerability of people, property and in rural areas and small towns] by a safe margin.� infrastructure. For example, flooding is becoming Current domestic use is 1.4% of safe yields, and it an increasingly common issue in major metropolitan is estimated to remain below 15% in 2030, with a areas, particularly Kampala. Unplanned and un- few exceptions. The NWRA is careful to point out, regulated land use, wetland conversion, and limited however, that the rapid assessment could not take provision of storm discharge systems have made into account local variations in physical conditions, housing areas and urban development more vulner- and so does it not necessarily yield accurate results at able to flooding. More generally and throughout the local scale. There could be localized ‘shortages’, Uganda, “human acts of omission and commission� particularly for sub-counties with high population that increase damaging impacts of floods include densities (e.g., in south-west) or because of water severe land degradation, wide-spread deforestation, quality issues (NWRA, 2011). increased population density along riverbanks and in other ‘fragile’ zones (e.g. steep slopes), inadequate Overall, this finding suggests that groundwater re- land use planning, zoning and control of flood plain sources could be sustainably developed for multiple development, and lack of enforcement of environ- uses, including livestock watering, agriculture, and mental regulations. drought management. Currently, groundwater is primarily used for domestic purposes because it is Existing analysis does not indicate that major flood of a relatively high quality (requires minimal treat- control infrastructure such as large storage dams ment), systems are smaller scale and less complex or limited sections of embankments are the most (can be easily operated and managed), etc. Although 63 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy the potential for groundwater development is rec- ties. Quality problems have reached a level where ognized, GoU has placed relatively more focus on drinking water standards are not met and, in the the construction of dams and reservoirs in strategic extreme (but too common) case, even bathing is not locations for other uses. Current use of groundwater recommended (NWRA, 2010). for livestock is almost negligible and it is estimated that ‘groundwater can safely provide a substantial Lake Victoria and Murchinson Bay are perhaps the part of livestock drinking needs’, with a few excep- most glaring example. Inner Murchinson Bay is fed tions (NWRA, 2010). The development of additional by eight sub-catchments, but the largest contribution animal drinking facilities—including groundwater to its pollution load is from the Nakivubo Swamp. based systems—could reduce pressures, particularly The Swamp receives untreated and partially treated in the ‘cattle corridor’ where the migration of pas- domestic and industrial wastewater from three toralists in search of water is becoming increasingly sources: (i) Nakivubo River and its tributaries, which difficult (in some cases leading to outright conflicts). provide the main drainage channel for Kampala; (ii) the partially treated outflow of Kampala’s sewerage Beyond domestic uses and livestock, the potential treatment plant at Bugolobi; and (iii) run-off, seepage for groundwater to support agriculture should also and point sources from unsewered areas adjacent to be considered subject to aquifer characteristics, the Swamp. A case study on Nakivubo Swamp— rainfall, and recharge constraints: for those parts discussed above—found that the economic value of of Uganda—such as large areas in the North— the wastewater purification and nutrient retention where there is very limited surface water, but the services of Nakivubo Swamp is in the order of USD 1 groundwater table is available at low depth; in to 1.75 million per year (Emerton, et al., 1999). These rain-fed areas, as supplemental irrigation; and in estimates can also be seen as the minimum cost to conjunction with surface water. In rainfed areas, in Kampala for coping with water quality problems addition to developing groundwater use systems associated with primarily domestic waste (the major (wells and pumps), there are large opportunities contributor of wastewater). In contrast, the estimated to recharge shallow aquifers and increase moisture cost of ‘cleaning up’ the problem through better wet- profiles through techniques that are now used only land management was found to be USD 235,000 per sporadically in Uganda, including subsurface dams, year; the estimated cost of partially ‘avoiding’ the contour bunds and trenches, recharge ponds, etc. problem by constructing elevated pit latrines was a These techniques capture the excess water during mere USD 66,000. heavy rainfall and make it available in the subse- quent dry periods either as soil moisture or shallow Many countries (e.g. parts of China and India) groundwater. This choice would require improving have pursued an incremental growth strategy that the groundwater management knowledge base, and has often neglected the environment, with the logic development of a strategic plan for groundwater being that poor countries cannot afford not to pol- management in the country. lute in the pursuit of development. This has resulted in severely degraded water bodies that cause public Water Quality—Clean now or Later? health problems, lower adjacent land values, and Can Uganda afford to lose its water bodies to repel investments. Many of these same countries pollution or can Uganda afford not to pollute? are now spending huge sums to clean up their riv- ers and lakes in an attempt to undo the damage of Uganda’s surface and groundwater quality has been unchecked pollution. Uganda is not in this decreasing over the last 20 years, as highlighted in position—its water resources are still in a rela- Chapter 2. The main sources are agricultural and tively pristine state despite localized water quality industry encroachment and point and non-point problems. As the above example of Nakivubo polution, as well as localized soil erosion. However, swamp shows, the cost of cleaning up the current by far the most significant water quality problem is problems and preventing future pollution (e.g. bacterial contamination due to poor sanitation facili- from growing cities and future oil exploitation) 64 GoU, Development Partner and World Bank Activities in Water and Related Sectors are small compared to the benefits, including from 2010). The driest part of the country, experiencing the a public health viewpoint. Setting water quality most droughts, is the rain-shadow zone of the “cattle objectives and emissions standards, and intensify- corridor,� which occupies about 44% of Uganda’s ing water quality monitoring, should be a first step surface area extends from southwest to northeast (NWRA, 2010). (passing through Lake Kyoga and into Karamoja). Adapting to Historical Climate Variability As noted in Chapter 2, as part of the Uganda Water and Change: Balancing the reduction of CAS, a companion study was undertaken to exam- Uganda’s existing “adaptation deficit� and ine trends in historical climate and the future with preparation to adapt to climate change. climate change. A question posed was whether his- torical challenges will be exacerbated with climate As discussed in Chapter 2 and elsewhere in this re- change. A number of scenarios from climate models port, Uganda experiences high spatial and temporal were examined with the following results: (i) all cli- variability in rainfall, which translate into a high mate models (General Circulation Models—GCMs) incidence of extreme events and to disparities in project increased warming with more ‘hot’ days in water availability. Climate-related natural disasters— the future and (ii) there is very strong agreement both floods and droughts—have been increasing in across GCMs that mean annual precipitation, run- frequency and magnitude, with devastating conse- off, precipitation during strong storm events, and quences. Eastern Uganda is the most flood prone area precipitation intensity will increase in Uganda. in the country, with low lying areas at the foothills of Primarily months outside of the summer (June- Mount Elgon that are part of the original floodplain August) will experience precipitation increases, and being one of the worst affected regions (NWRA, some of the largest precipitation increases will likely Figure 5-1: Projected annual precipitation in Uganda for 2030—2049 (A2; 19 GCMs) 3000 bccr ccct47 2500 cnrm csiroa csirob echam 2000 echo Annual Precipitation (mm) gfdl2a gfdl2b 1500 gisser hadcm3 hadgem inmcm 1000 ipsl mirocm mpi mri 500 ncarc ncarp Observed Historical (1980–1999) Observed Historical Mean (1980–1999) 0 65 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy occur in months that already receive substantial mean) for 1980–1999 on the time series of projected rainfall (e.g., April and October). annual precipitation for 2030–2049. Because of uncer- tainties inherent in climate change modeling, each of The projected changes in climate could have signifi- these results must be considered as ‘equally likely.’ cant implications for Uganda. Temperature increases would increase crop water requirements and system As seen in Figure 5-1, in some models, historic evaporative losses. Changes in the frequency and uncertainty could be greater than the expected intensity of precipitation, coupled with increasing changes in future precipitation. The implication is temperature, means that Uganda will likely experi- important: addressing historical variability will go ence more extreme events (both floods and droughts), a long way towards tackling challenges in a future and that water scarcity could increase particularly with a changed climate. The vulnerability of Uganda during the summer months. There is good (to strong) to climate events that have occurred in the recent agreement across all climate models on these pro- past, discussed above, is sufficient evidence that jected changes. However, the models do not agree much more could be done to address the current on the magnitude (or even direction) of precipitation ‘adaptation deficit.’ Reducing the current deficit, in changes as shown in the below figure, which super- turn, would build Uganda’s climate resilience in an imposes observed historical precipitation (actual and uncertain future. 66 6 GoU, Development Partner and World Bank Activities in Water and Related Sectors Chapter 2 assessed the current challenges and opportunities that Uganda faces in managing and developing its water resources. In Chapter 3, actions to address current challenges and opportunities in Uganda’s water sector are presented. This Chapter reviews GoU initiatives in the water sector, Development Partner (DP) support and ongoing World Bank activities on water and related sectors. Many of the actions are addressed to a greater or lesser extent in these ongoing initiatives. In other cases, there are critical gaps where the World Bank is well-placed to provide timely support over the next five years (the subject of Chapter 7). CURRENT AND PLANNED GOU WATER AND RELATED SECTOR ACTIVITIES The GoU is undertaking a number of activities to ensure sustainable water resources management and development, as well as the efficient provision and delivery of services. These initiatives lie both within the water sector, and in related sectors linked to water (agriculture, energy and the environment). GoU Initiatives in the Water Sector As noted in Chapter 1, the Water and Sanitation Sector Investment Plan (SIP) serves as the basis for all national water programs for the period 2009 to 2014. GoU initiatives in each of the SIP priorities areas are discussed below. Urban and Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Urban WSS activities aim to ensure the sustainable development and management of adequate water supply and sanitation services for “urban councils.� These are classified as Kampala (Capital City), 13 Municipalities and 123 Town Councils (small towns). The respon- sibility for UWSS is shared by the National Water and Sewerage Corporation (NWSC) and Local Governments Councils (LGCs) for small towns. For the latter, the development of systems is often 67 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy undertaken with the support of MWE (specifically, few years, WRM interventions have primarily fo- DWD); management is overseen by MWE through cused on improving the knowledge-base as the foun- various mechanisms (including Town and Municipal dation for developing a Water Resources Strategy Councils as Water Authorities and contracts with and Investment Plans (including a National Water private operators). Resources Assessment and groundwater mapping), laying the foundation for the roll-out of integrated In Rural WSS, key activities are supported through water resources management and development in District Water and Sanitation Development Water Management Zones, issuance and enforce- Conditional Grant (which finances activities at the ment of permits for water abstraction and discharge, District level). These include construction and reha- and water quality assessments. bilitation of piped water systems in various water stressed parts of the country by MWE, rainwater har- Government Initiatives in vesting initiatives and the promotion of appropriate Water-Related Sectors groundwater systems for water supply. Resources allocated to sanitation are about 4% of the grant. Agriculture To achieve the vision laid out in the NDP and sup- Water for Production (WfP) ported by the Agriculture Development Strategy GoU interventions in WfP aim to improve the liveli- and Investment Plan (DSIP), GoU is focusing on hoods those living in rural areas through planning a number of priorities for financing in the agricul- and developing multi-purpose water infrastructure tural sector (refer Chapter 1). Key water-related such as bulk water facilities, valley dams and tanks. programs include: (i) sustainable land management As discussed elsewhere in the report, GoU has in- and (ii) water for agricultural production. The key vested heavily in water infrastructure, primarily for objective of the Sustainable Land Management livestock but also meant to provide for domestic use, program is enhancing productivity of land through irrigation and fisheries. Cumulative storage of water sustainable management of soil and water resources. for production facilities now stands at 21.64 MCM, Specific activities include; (i) promoting watershed which is improvement from 17 MCM in 2009, but management practices and rehabilitating degraded still only meets less than 5% of estimated demand. micro-catchments; (ii) promoting conventional soil Functionality of WfP facilities remains a challenge. and water conservation practices; (iii) improving MWE has developed a number of guidelines and water supply (for production and domestic uses) strategies to guide stakeholders on the management to pastoral communities; and (iv) promoting small of facilities, and has facilitated training in a number scale irrigation practices. The Water for Agricultural of districts to enhance capacity as well as to raise Production program focuses on developing water awareness regarding the management and mainte- resources for agricultural production on the basis of nance of water for production facilities. Aggressive sustainable irrigation, water for livestock and aqua- plans are underway to rehabilitate and build ad- culture. Specific activities include; (i) rehabilitating ditional valley dams and tanks. Larger scale water five large irrigation schemes; (ii) establishing four storage is a central feature of the GoU’s proposed new irrigation schemes; (iii) developing strategy and program to pump or ‘gravitate water from areas of guidelines for decentralized planning and imple- plenty to those areas which face perpetual scarcity mentation of water for livestock; and (iv) increasing (water stressed areas)’ (refer Chapter 4). water storage through surface water reservoirs and groundwater exploitation. Water Resources Management Energy In 2003, as part of the reform of the MWE, the Directorate of Water Resources Management The Power Sector Investment Plan (PSIP) aims (DWRM) was created. The Directorate is small, but at ensuring provision of adequate and reliable growing in visibility and importance. Over the last power for economic development (refer Chapter 68 GoU, Development Partner and World Bank Activities in Water and Related Sectors 1). Hydropower has been identified as the least- for ensuring the long-term sustainability of water cost energy generation option for Uganda and it is sector investments. therefore the focus for development in the sector. GoU is currently constructing a hydropower facility There is a consistent and significant gap between at Bujagali (250 MW) and plans are underway for water sector funding and investment needs as laid a second one at Karuma. To close the demand and out in the Water SIP. In 2008/9 only about 75% of supply gap in the interim period while Bujagali and investment needs were met ‘on budget’ (or through Karuma are brought online, GoU has developed a budget support). Non-governmental organization number of mini-hydro sites and plans are underway contributions and other ‘off budget’ support (di- to develop at least ten more sites for which feasibility rect project or institutional financing), specifically studies have already been undertaken. In the long for large urban water supply and sanitation, have term, it is expected that thermal power from the not been enough to fully close the gap. Although oilfields near Lake Albert will play a larger role in development partner support has been a critical Uganda’s energy portfolio. source of supplemental funding, it has been steadily decreasing over time (currently constituting 32% of Environment on-budget support). Interventions in the environment sector are not en- tirely coordinated within an overarching investment DEVELOPMENT PARTNER plan. Activities that are undertaken are generally SUPPORT TO THE WATER SECTOR of a routine nature with extremely limited funding. These include monitoring and inspection activities Development partner support has played an im- for environmental compliance; watershed manage- portant role in the development of Uganda’s water ment and tree-planting; and information, education sector, including contributing towards the establish- and public awareness activities. Some studies have ment of a conducive policy, legislative and strategic also been undertaken to build the knowledge- planning framework, institutional reforms, and base in the sector, including the National Wetland infrastructure development. The Joint Partnership Information System and the climate change policy, Fund (JPF), a first step from project support towards adaptation and mitigation strategies and guidelines. a Sector Wide Approach to planning (SWAp), has operated since 2003 as a mechanism for coordinating Water Sector Funding development partner activities. The JPF currently has six DP members (Danida, AfDB, Austria, EU, Despite the ambitious program set out in the Water KfW and GTZ). SIP, overall funding to Uganda’s water sector has been relatively constant over time, meaning that al- The WSS Development Partners Group (WSSDPG) locations have steadily declined as a percentage of derives its mandate from the Partnership Principles the national budget (from 4.9% in FY2004/5 to 2.2% signed in 2003 between GoU and development in FY2009/10) (MWE SPR, 2010). Historically, WSS partners as a framework to structure develop- has received the largest share of budget outlays, at ment assistance to support the implementation of about 85% (with rural at 39%, small towns at 31% Uganda’s PEAP. The Partnership Principles signed and large towns at 15%). Of this, sanitation receives by DPs with the Government of Uganda empha- less than 5%. The remaining 15% of budget outlays size both harmonization and alignment and ensure for the water sector is split almost evenly between integration of support in SWAps. Membership of water resources management and water for pro- the WSSDPG is open to all development partners duction. These allocations are not fully consistent supporting the sector, including NGOs. The main with priorities in the SIP, where highest priority is donors currently supporting the water sector in- given to laying the foundation for decentralized clude Danida, GTZ/KfW, Austria, AfDB, WSP/WB, integrated water resources management as a basis UNICEF, JICA, and the EU. 69 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy Water Resources Management development of piped water systems, as well as construction of bore holes for domestic water sup- The bulk of water resources activities are financed ply. Groundwater is a potentially important source through Government budget and with support from for rural water supply, and there are indications Danida. However, a few donors—notably the EU— that it has not been developed to its full potential, are active in water resources. These activities have in- as noted previously. GoU, with support from the cluded support for groundwater mapping, the devel- EU,is currently conducting groundwater mapping opment of a National Water Resources Assessment for a number of districts in an effort to provide in- and Strategy for operationalizing catchment-based formation on groundwater potential. Past sanitation water resources management, institutional develop- interventions have been limited due to lack of a cred- ment capacity building for decentralized and inte- ible strategy to improve on-site sanitation. This has grated water resources management and planning. been addressed with the development of a 10-year financing strategy and the introduction of the Total Urban and Rural Water Supply and Sanitation/Sanitation Marketing (TSSM) by WSP. Sanitation The Global Sanitation Fund, through UNOPS, has committed funds to improve sanitation in 10 districts Urban WSS using the newly introduced approach of TSSM. The majority of DP support in the water sector goes Water for Agricultural Production towards urban WSS, for both large (NWSC) towns and small (DWD) towns. The main DPs supporting The primary development partner supporting Urban WSS are KfW, AFD, EIB, EU and AfDB. The WfP is Danida, which has financed the construc- bulk of investments are in infrastructure develop- tion of eight dams to date. All other initiatives in ment for water supply; sanitation has been funded water for agricultural production have been govern- to only a limited extent. ment financed. In large (NWSC) towns, current financing is pri- Energy marily directed to Kampala, for both water supply and sanitation. While Kampala’s investment needs The primary development partner supporting hy- are now almost fully covered, several other NWSC dropower development is Jica, which has focused towns are under-funded. All development partner on scoping potential mini hydropower sites. The support to the small (DWD) towns that fall outside private sector has been active in providing finance of NWSC’s mandate is channeled through the Water for developing mini hydropower. and Sanitation Development Facility (WSDF), which is an investment and technical support instrument Environmental Services that was first piloted in southwestern Uganda by the Austrian Government, and has been recently up- A few DPs are supporting the environment sector, scaled to the North and East of the country. The main notably Norway and EU (environment services and donors include AfDB and EU, who have invested forestry), Belgium (environment—wetland manage- in the development and maintenance of more than ment), and Norway (environmental capacity build- 80 towns, primarily for small town water supply ing with regards to oil exploration and development). systems and limited sanitation. JICA has also sup- ported small towns, although not through the WSDF. Climate Resilience/Climate Change Rural WSS The primary DP supporting this area through the GoU’s climate change unit is Danida, which has The primary DPs supporting Rural WSS are Austria, financed institutional capacity building and sup- AfDB, Norway, EU and USAID. This is mainly for ported the creation of the unit. Although there are 70 GoU, Development Partner and World Bank Activities in Water and Related Sectors a number of DP-supported targeted interventions, ported in FY 2009/10 investments of approximately activities are not fully coordinated and the degree UGX 18.5 billion (or approximately USD 9 million), to which they are aligned with GoU initiatives reaching about 470,000 people. in climate resilience is unclear. In an effort to im- prove coordination across interventions, a Climate WORLD BANK SUPPORT TO GoU Change DP group has been formed, including Danida, Iceland, GtZ, Norway and the World Historical World Bank Support Bank. Additionally, Danida has provided support to MWE (DWRM) to undertake a climate change Uganda joined the World Bank in 1963, a year after vulnerability assessment, which will feed into the obtaining independence. The first loan financed preparation of a climate change adaptation strategy electric power development. Since that time (and for the water sector. until March 2011), the World Bank has provided over USD 6.6 billion in financing: approximately USD 6 Overall DP Funding billion in loans and credits and USD 600 million in grants. The World Bank has also committed USD The complete portfolio of ongoing development 1.2 billion to finance various programs and projects partner support to the water sector, including multi- between 2009 and 2011. year projects, is on the order of USD 116 million (“on budget� or budget support) and USD 140 million As of end March 2011, the Uganda World Bank port- (“off budget� or direct project or institutional financ- folio consisted of 23 IDA-financed operations and ing). A detailed summary of development partner an IDA guarantee for the Private Power Generation funding is provided in Annex C. (Bujagali) Project, with a total commitment amount of USD 1.76 billion. About one quarter of annual Non-governmental organization (NGO) support IDA support is provided in the form of direct budget to the water sector through the Uganda Water and support. In addition, Uganda is supported through Sanitation Non- Government Organization Network four regional projects. (UWASNET) has also been important, particularly for water supply and sanitation serving the most The current sector distribution of IDA commitments vulnerable groups in Northern Uganda, slums in reflects GoU’s emphasis on infrastructure (Figure urban centers, and disaster stricken areas. NGOs re- 6-1). About 64% of commitments are allocated to Figure 6-1: World Bank IDA distribution chart (December 2010) Energy and Mining 30.1% Transport 16.9% Education 10.2% Agriculture 7.8% Health 7.4% Public Sector 6.8% Finance and Private Sector 6.0% Social Development 5.8% Urban Development 5.0% Environment 3.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% % of Total Commitment (as of December 2010) 71 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy energy, mining, environment, urban development, Urban and Rural Water Supply and and transport. About 24% are allocated to education, Sanitation health, and social development; 6% to finance and private sector development; and 7% to economic and The World Bank has provided support to WSS public sector management. Table 6-1 shows on-going through lending via NUSAF, output-based aid (and planned FY11) World Bank projects that relate pilot projects to improve access to piped drinking to the water sector. water in small towns (through the Global Partnership on Output-based Aid), as well as through analytical The World Bank’s last direct investment in the water work. In addition, the World Bank has supported sector was the Small Towns Project, which closed the strengthening of sanitation interventions in 2001. Since that time, the World Bank’s support by the GoU, through the Water and Sanitation to the water sector has primarily been budget Program (WSP). support through the Poverty Reduction Credit (PRSCs 1-8 corresponding to FY01-10). A significant Linked to WSS, the USD 33.6 million Kampala proportion of this is for rural WSS. However, as Institutional and Infrastructure Development table 6-1 shows, the World Bank’s current portfolio Project (KIIDP) includes a component addressing includes a number of projects with linkages to the water the improvement of Kampala’s drainage system sector, including in energy, agriculture, infrastruc- to reduce flooding in the city. It will also support ture and service delivery. In addition, the World the implementation of the Wetland Sector Strategic Bank has been actively involved in regional water Plan (2001–2010) and management of solid waste programs including the Nile Basin Initiative and in Kampala. the Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project I&II. Finally, a number of ongoing non- The USD 55 million Local Government Management lending activities include water-related aspects and Service Delivery Project focuses on institutional (e.g., Public Expenditure Review in Agriculture, issues in service delivery, and may also present ESW on Making Growth More Inclusive, and an opportunity to incorporate capacity building Programmatic Governance). World Bank lending of local governments to plan and manage projects that link directly or indirectly with the resources within an integrated, catchment-based water sector are discussed further below. The planning framework. potential opportunity to increase synergies with water is noted for those projects that are further Water for Agricultural Production from completion. Major projects with elements of water for agricultural Water Resources Management production include the USD 100 million Northern Uganda Social Action Fund II (NUSAF 2), which aims Through the World Bank administered Nile Basin to support water points and small valley dams and Trust Fund (NBTF), regional projects target - tanks, as well as community infrastructure rehabilita- ing river basin management at a sub-catchment tion. Through the provision of water points, the proj- level (Sio-Malaba-Malakisi and Kagera River ect is addressing rural water supply and water for Basin Management projects) are ongoing. The Nile livestock and to some extent small scale irrigation. In Equatorial Lakes Water Resources Development addition an ESW on Making Growth More Inclusive Project is identifying and preparing a portfolio of is underway, and is exploring spatial patterns of cur- water resources projects within the broader coor- rent and potential agricultural productivity. dinated water resources investment strategy of the Nile Equatorial Lakes region. A regional project Energy focusing on improving collaborative management of the Lake Victoria Basin (Lake Victoria Environmental Major ongoing projects in the energy sector include Management Program II) is also underway. the Private Power Generation (Bujagali) Project 72 GoU, Development Partner and World Bank Activities in Water and Related Sectors Table 6-1: Ongoing World Bank Water-Related Lending Projects in Uganda Project Objectives / Activities to be undertaken ON GOING WORLD BANK PROJECTS 2nd Northern Uganda Social Action Fund Improve access of beneficiaries in northern Uganda to income generating (NUSAF 2) – USD 100m opportunities and better basin socio-economic services. Component 1 (Livelihood Investment Support), will include an assessment to identify feasible activities that can be funded under this component, within the Karamoja region. Kampala Institutional and Infrastructure Development Project Improve institutional efficiency of Kampala City Council. (KIIDP) – USD 33.6m Component 2 (City Wide Infrastructure and Services Improvement), will address improvement of the drainage system in selected areas of Kampala that are regularly affected by floods. This is expected to reduce on-flood- ing from primary and secondary channels. Energy for Rural Transformation Project (ERT 2) – USD 75m Increase access to energy and ICTs in rural Uganda. Component 1 (Rural Energy Infrastructure), will focus on investments, likely to be in sugar mill cogeneration (following the success of the Kakira project in ERT 1), and small/mini hydropower. Private Power Generation (Bujagali) Project – USD 115m Construct a river power plant that will provide least-cost power generation capacity to help alleviate power shortages in the country. Environmental Management and Capacity Building Project 2 Contribute to sustainable management of environmental and natural USD 37m resources at the national, district and community levels. Poverty Reduction Support Credit 8 – USD 140m Support the Government’s development strategy with higher emphasis on growth, structural transformation of the economy and strengthened accountability for delivering key public services. Local Government Management and Service Delivery Project – Strengthen the ability of the Ministries, Departments, Agencies and local USD 55m Governments to plan and manage resources for service delivery, in collabo- ration with communities. Transport Sector Development Project – USD 120m Develop an improved road network and road management. ON-GOING REGIONAL PROJECTS Nile Basin Sio-Malaba-Malakisi River Basin Management Support long term investments and capacity building, through strategic Project – USD 1.75 project preparation studies (including pre-feasibility studies, feasibility studies, project design). Nile Basin Kagera River Basin Management Project – USD 3.37m Support long term investments and capacity building, which will ulti- mately leverage major investment opportunities in the Kagera River catchments. Nile Equatorial Lakes Water Resources Development Project – Identify and prepare a portfolio of water resources projects within the USD 3.89m broader coordinated water resources investment strategy of the Nile Equatorial Lakes region. Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project (LVEMP) II – Improve collaborative management of the natural resources of the Lake USD 90m Victoria Basin. 73 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy (USD 360 million, USD 130 million in loans and Authority (NEMA), as well as contributing to sus- USD 230 million in guarantees). This could present tainable management of environmental and natural an opportunity to develop coordinated hydropower resources at the district and community levels. The systems management between MWE and MEMD in World Bank has also provided funding, together order to reduce vulnerability to climatic variability with other development partners, through budget and change. Other projects include the Energy for support to facilitate environmental management in Rural Transformation Project (USD 75 million), the country. which focuses on investments likely to be in sugar mill cogeneration and small/mini hydropower. Due Climate Resilience/Climate Change to close in 2013, it could present an opportunity to incorporate issues such as vulnerability to cli- To date, the World Bank has not directly financed mate variability and change, ecosystem services in specific interventions to improve climate resilience. relation to rural dependence on resources such as However, there is opportunity to incorporate fuel wood which affects watershed quality, and climate variability and change in ongoing projects. aquifer recharge. For example, the Transport Sector Development Project, which aims to develop an improved road Environmental Services network and road management, is due to close in 2014. The project could better incorporate cli- World Bank projects in environment include the mate aspects (i.e., floods) through linking with the Environmental Management and Capacity Building most updated and detailed water resources informa- 2 Project (USD 37 million), which supports institu- tion base in order to ensure that roads are well de- tional strengthening of the lead environmental agen- signed (e.g., with improved drainage) to withstand cy in Uganda, National Environment Management climate shocks. 74 7 Priority Areas of World Bank Support for Uganda’s Water Sector The analysis in Chapter 3 of facts on the current status and associated issues in each sector and with respect to surface water, groundwater and climate resilience yielded a number of actions to address the chal­ lenges and exploit the opportunities. In Chapter 5, a set of principles for prioritization and associated criteria were developed for the two objectives identified in Chapter 3: (i) improved water resources man­ agement and (ii) improved service delivery. Through the prioritization process, the actions are found to fall into two main categories of choices, that is, ‘more obvious’ investment options that are primarily tactical in nature (related to exactly how and when they should be rolled out) and ‘more difficult’ or nuanced options, where choices have to be weighed based on their relative impact on the sustainability and scale criteria. The latter are discussed in some detail in Chapter 5, and effectively represent choices that will shape the future structure of water develop­ ment and management in the country. Chapter 6 reviewed ongoing projects and programs in water and related sectors that are currently supported by GoU, DPs, and the World Bank.. This chapter looks forward, proposing priority areas of World Bank support for Uganda’s water sector over the next five years. Implementing these actions will require adjustments in planned activi- ties to exploit synergies, new lending operations, and AAA and ESW initiatives. The five-year program is estimated to cost in the order of USD 150–300 million. IDENTIFYING PRIORITIES FOR WORLD BANK SUPPORT The numerous actions identified in Chapter 3 were screened and filtered based on the degree to which they are already addressed by ongoing GoU, DP and World Bank initiatives (as summarized in Chapter 6). The result of the filtering process is shown in Annex D (Action Tables and Action Clusters). Nearly forty actions are not currently addressed, and twenty of these emerge as critical gaps, requiring full or additional support. These twenty actions have been categorized into generalized activities and clustered into eight ‘action areas’ (refer Table 7-1). The 75 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy Table 7-1: Priority areas for World Bank support to the water sector 4Is Action Clusters Menu of Actions 1. Develop comprehensive • Upgraded real-time Hydro-met system for Uganda Knowledge Base and Analysis • Develop a good groundwater knowledge base in call districts • Improve wetland knowledge base to support wetland management programs • Extend surface water, groundwater (level and monitoring) networks, including water quality Information 2. Undertake Special Studies • Understand key risks in rain-fed agriculture, and functionality of WfP facilities • Public Expenditure Review of Water Sector • Valuation of water in relevant sectors • Study of key issues at water supply sources • Study potential negative impacts of oil exploitation and development • Risk management and flood path surveys 3. Modernize Relevant Institutions • Modernize DWRM, NWSC and DWD for Water Management and Service Delivery and set up strong WMZ institutions • Improve coordination, data sharing, joint planning exercises across agencies (including MoDPR, MEMD, MAAIF) Institutions • Support implementation of water governance plan 4. Strengthen Planning and • Develop catchment management and development plans Management Activities • Explore water-related development—including storage, hydropower investments/operations and WfP facilities—in IWRM context • Mainstream climate resilience into existing and future investments • Strengthen afforestation, wetland management, soil/water conservation programs 5. Strengthen Policy and Regulatory • Review and update existing water policy and legislative framework Instruments Framework 6. Introduce Policy Instruments • Explore Payment for Environmental Services for water supply source protection • Explore and make further use of PPPs and OBAs (DWD) and innovative institutional arrange- ments (NWSC) 7. Develop Asset • Develop and Improve Asset Management System, including water supply sources and rehabilita- Management System tion of select urban systems • Undertake activities to reduce Non-Revenue water Infrastructure • Develop and monitor O&M Plans 8. Prepare, Finance, and Implement • Identify and implement appropriate investments in urban and rural water supply and sanitation prioritized investments • Identify and implement appropriate investments in select water-related sectors • Promote rainwater harvesting under appropriate conditions • Implement source protection programs Note: Refer to Annex D (Action Tables and Action Clusters) for details on how priority actions were filtered and clustered. actions exploit the World Bank’s comparative advan- • Information (e.g. knowledge base development, tages, are aligned with the strategic objectives of the analytical systems) Uganda CAS, and cover all of the major water and related sectors, including water resources manage- • Institutions (e.g. capacity-building, institutional ment, climate resilience, WSS, water for agriculture, modernization, policies and legislation) hydropower, and environmental services. • Instruments (e.g. zoning, insurance, pricing, The actions in the table above are categorized into regulations) the “four Is�: 76 Priority Areas of World Bank Support for Uganda’s Water Sector • Infrastructure (e.g. dams, water supply and • Strengthen Human Capital Development by im- sanitation systems, irrigation schemes) proving access to quality primary and post primary education, as well as providing and The priority actions would expand and strengthen strengthening health care delivery; and the knowledge base (decision are not made once, but periodically over time); strengthen institutions and • Improve Good Governance and Value for Money capacity including the legal and policy framework; by strengthening accountability and efficiency and invest in enabling infrastructure. The category of public financial and human resource man- of ‘instruments’ captures a variety of cross-cutting agement. initiatives that include elements of the other three. These include, for example, risk mapping and The World Bank program to achieve these objectives zoning, index based crop insurance, payment for and associated outcomes is estimated to be about environmental services, new technologies, and new USD 1.97 billion over the FY11–15 CAS period. design standards and codes. SYNERGIES BETWEEN PRIORITY The “four Is� is a convenient way to categorize the actions because to tackle the complexity and ACTIONS AND PLANNED WORLD cross-cutting nature of water resources manage- BANK PROJECTS ment and development, experience suggests that a comprehensive and integrated strategy is There are possibilities for enhancing cross-sectoral typically required. A strategy is comprehensive synergies and incorporating many of the priority ar- in the sense that it includes all stakeholders and com- eas for World Bank support in water-related projects bines actions to address information, institutions, planned for the current CAS cycle. The table below infrastructure while utilizing a range of instruments; identifies projects proposed in the Uganda CAS that it is integrated in that it addressing inter-related have significant linkages with the priority areas for and interdependent issues in water and related the water sector that are outlined in Table 7-2. In sectors and includes all of the necessary compli- many cases, relatively minor additions or modifica- mentary actions that are required to maximize the tions in these projects to incorporate water aspects strategy’s effectiveness. could bring substantial benefits to Uganda’s water sector without overly complicating project design ALIGNMENT OF PRIORITY ACTIONS or implementation. Box 7-1 discusses the broader issue of integrating or mainstreaming many of the WITH UGANDA CAS OBJECTIVES cross-sector dimensions and characteristics of water The twenty five or so priority actions are fully into the Uganda development program. It highlights aligned with the strategic objectives of the Uganda that water is only one of many critical elements, and CAS, which supports Uganda’s NDP. These strategic that complementary measures that fall outside of the objectives include: traditional water sector need to be implemented in concert in order to maximize water’s contribution to • Promote Inclusive and Sustainable Economic Growth economic growth and poverty alleviation. by inducing private sector growth, improving interconnectivity for regional integration as WORLD BANK PROGRAM OF well as increasing agricultural productivity ef- ficiency and sustainability of natural resource SUPPORT FOR UGANDA’S management; WATER SECTOR • Enhance Public Infrastructure through increased World Bank priorities in Uganda’s water sector out- access to electricity, quality roads, quality water lined above constitute a comprehensive and integrat- and sanitation services as well as urban services; ed program to support the GoU in establishing the 77 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy Table 7-2: Proposed World Bank water-related lending and non-lending projects in Uganda Proposed Projects Linkages to water sector TA on Improving Water Resources Management and Development in Uganda (USD This TA could support GoU’s efforts to prepare a Water 850,000) Resources Management and Development Strategy and sequenced investment plans for catchment- Objective: Improved strategic planning, prioritization and sequencing of water investments. based water management/development and UWSS. Municipal Infrastructure Development Project (USD 150m) This CAS cycle project will address improved WSS and solid waste management in key municipalities. Objective: Pilot Municipal Infrastructure financing system and enhanced management to address service gaps in 13 municipalities. Sustainable Natural Resources Management for Growth Project (USD 45m) This project could include strengthening envi- ronmental enforcement by building capacity in Objective: Improve natural resource and forest management. environmental agencies. Agricultural Technology and Agribusiness Advisory Services Project (USD 120m) This project could include aspects of agricultural water management to enhance farmers’ abilities Objective: This project will focus on increasing agricultural productivity and the incomes of to cope with climate variability and change (e.g., smallholder farmers. improved soil/water management, supplemental groundwater irrigation) Agriculture Support Project (USD 50m) This project could build on existing GoU and Bank work on the modalities for promoting commercial Objective: Support increased productivity and commercialization of agriculture. irrigated agriculture for high-value and/or export- oriented crops. Petroleum Sector Support (USD 30m) This study could include analysis and mitigation of the negative impacts of oil exploration and develop- Objective: Improved management of Uganda’s petroleum resources. ment on Uganda’s water resources. TA on Rural Sanitation Program (WSP) This TA could compliment ongoing GoU and DP efforts to identify and implement appropriate sanita- Objective: Build an enabling environment, local government capacity, and private sector tion technologies for rural areas. participation in rural sanitation. Petroleum Sector Support (USD 30m) This project presents an opportunity to support strong wetland management and conservation Objective: Improved management of Uganda’s petroleum resources. programs, and incorporate a focus on enhancing community benefits. TA on Rural Sanitation Program (WSP) This project can compliment ongoing GoU and DP efforts to identify and implement appropriate sani- Objective: Address the enabling environment, local government capacity building, and tation technologies for rural areas. private sector participation in rural sanitation. Sustainable Land Management (GEF) This project presents an opportunity to support strong wetland management and conservation programs, and incorporate a focus on enhancing community benefits. 78 Priority Areas of World Bank Support for Uganda’s Water Sector Box 7-1: Mainstreaming Water Interventions into Overall Development The Importance of Complementary Measures in Non-Water Sectors The main theme of the NDP is ‘Growth, Employment and Socio-Economic Transformation for Prosperity’. Achieving this will require taking the ac- tions to improve water resources management and service delivery that are described above. However, water is only one critical input or element. A number of complementary measures that fall outside of the water sector need to be implemented in concert in order make the most productive use of water, and to ensure that water interventions contribute maximally to economic growth and poverty alleviation. This applies to all sectors that rely or impact on water resources—hydropower, agriculture, the environment, etc. Taking the case of agriculture, actions to improve water productivity will need to be accompanied by a range of additional investments or actions that relax binding constraints and create an enabling environment for agricultural growth. According to the World Bank’s Policy Note on Agriculture for Inclusive Growth in Uganda (Zorya, et al, Draft 2010), the performance of the agricul- tural sector is constrained by five primary factors: infrastructure, the investment climate, land markets, rural finance, and agricultural services: • Infrastructure bottlenecks include poor road condition and a limited network, leading to high transport costs and impacting on the price farmers pay for inputs and the revenues they receive for their outputs. Lack of access to reliable electricity and high electricity costs have cut into farmer profits and made further investments in agriculture unattractive, as well as reducing the competitiveness of Ugandan agro-industry. • Uganda has created a reasonably supportive policy environment for the agricultural sector (including ‘getting the prices right’/reducing agricul- tural price distortions). However, the country’s general investment climate is not friendly. It remains very low in terms of ease of doing business (111th out of 181 economies), which has impacted on agro-processing activities in spite of low agricultural distortions. • The high costs of land access and rights protection act as a major disincentive to new investment in agriculture. Issues with property rights— competing claims to the same piece of land, insecure tenure, etc—severely limit access to capital and discourage a long-term perspective in resources use. One study found that tenure insecurity reduces productivity by 25%, acting through its impact on decisions to invest in soil conservation, tree planting, manure application (Deininger and Ali, 2007). • Agricultural finance remains inaccessible for the majority of farms, as well as small agribusinesses and agro-processing firms. Most creditors support large firms and agro-industry, and even in this case there is unmet demand for term loans and other financial products (e.g., insurance). • Past investments in agricultural research and advisory services in Uganda have yielded significant benefits. However, further efforts are needed in: farmer empowerment; collaboration between research and advisory services, in particular at the local level; providing advisory services rather than inputs; enforcing regulations for inputs (seeds, fertilizer, etc.); and improving veterinary services for livestock. Interventions to improve the productivity of water in agriculture will only be effective if all key binding constraints—including those listed above—are addressed in a complementary fashion. Positive and Negative Spill-over Effects / Multipliers and Trade-offs An obvious but often forgotten point is that interventions in one water-related sector have positive and negative spill-over effects on others. For example, developing hydropower could have positive impacts on both the agricultural sector and water supply and sanitation in terms of improving reliability of electricity to tap groundwater resources. Investments in water for agriculture could positively impact on livestock (irrigated fodder) and energy sectors (biomass energy/biofuels). In negative terms, trade-offs have to be made between developing irrigation upstream and hydropower generation. enabling institutional, infrastructural and analytical Development Project is also planned for preparation platform to effectively implement integrated water during the CAS FY11-15 period, with a notional al- resources management, improve productivity and location of USD 130 million. service delivery, and reduce vulnerability to water shocks. As noted above, the water sector program The water program has two broad thrusts: (i) ca- is estimated to cost between USD 150 and 300 mil- pacity development for effective integrated water lion over the next five years. A number of pipeline management and development and (ii) investments projects provide opportunities for integrating wa- in improved access to and delivery of water and ter aspects. A dedicated Water Management and environmental services. Each is discussed in turn. 79 Uganda Managing Water Assistance Strategy Capacity development for effective Beyond laying the necessary enabling foundation, integrated water management a few areas emerge as strategic priorities for World and development Bank support, as discussed below. The program of support includes several of the Investments in improved access to investment options that fall in the ‘more obvious’ and delivery of water and category (discussed in Chapter 4), in particular those environmental services related to capacity development for sustainable and integrated water resources management and devel- Urban and rural water supply and sanitation opment. These include: Many challenges remain in improving services in ur- • Developing the comprehensive knowledge base ban and rural WSS, as highlighted throughout this re- and analytical capacity required for integrated port. It emerges as a key strategic priority area for the water resources planning and management; World Bank. The focus of the World Bank will be on: • Supporting key studies in the water sector that • Targeting urban water supply in NWSC large currently represent critical knowledge gaps that towns (outside of Kampala) and DWD small need to be filled in order to identify intervention towns, which are both under-funded and over- options (risks to rainfed agriculture and meth- burdened, as discussed in detail earlier. The func- ods for improving water productivity, water tionality of existing water supply infrastructure valuation, water supply source protection, and in large and small towns is rapidly deteriorating a Public Expenditure Review); due to lack of maintenance, representing a major risk in the future as the cost of rehabilitating or • Strengthening institutional capacity for effective replacement rises. Additionally, investments in water sector development and management, expansion of water service are needed to keep including institutional modernization and im- pace with rapid population growth in urban proved coordination and harmonization across areas and industrialization trends. water-related agencies; • Investments in urban water supply should be • Strengthening the enabling policy and legisla- coupled with water supply source protection pro- tive framework to support ongoing water sector grams to ensure long-term water availability and reforms and to enable effective water manage- quality, including piloting innovative instruments ment in conditions where constraints such as such as payment for environmental services. scarcity and spatial and temporal variability place a premium on effective management to • Any investments in rehabilitating and expand- support development; ing urban water supply systems should be accompanied by measures to improve utility • Strengthening integrated planning activ- performance, particularly the high rates of non- ities within and across water-dependent revenue water in NWSC towns. sectors, and better incorporating climate risks, in particular by introducing a par- • Expansion and improvement of functional and ticipatory integrated planning approach sustainable rural water supply (including low- at the catchment level where challenges of spatial cost rainwater harvesting) is perhaps the highest and temporal variability can be appropriately priority given the number of people currently evaluated and priority interventions identified. at risk (approximately 12 million) and the fact Box 7-2 describes this planning process in that Uganda will remain a predominantly rural more detail. country (Chapters 1 and 4). The World Bank has supported rural WSS for many years through 80 Priority Areas of World Bank Support for Uganda’s Water Sector Box 7-2: Integrated and Participatory Catchment Planning An integrated plan that responds to stakeholders and balances priorities in water and related sectors would typically consist of: • Investments to improve access to and the productive use of water such as storage and bulk water supply (agriculture, industry, domestic water supply); rainwater harvesting for rural water supply and conservation farming; mitigation of flood and drought risks; improvements in sanita- tion and pollution reduction; improvements in water and climate monitoring to enable more efficient and productive water use; improvements in watersheds to reduce erosion and improve water yield, soil fertility and moisture retention • Regulations, rules, procedures and instruments that address water allocation problems, land use issues related to flood and landslide risks, pol- lution discharges and wastewater disposal, infrastructure maintenance, investment financing; • Operating rules for storage systems, water controls structures, drought reserves etc. The activities and investments in such a plan will generally fall into two categories as shown in the below figure. Generally, implementation of the specific actions contained in both the management and investment plans will fall within the mandate of MWE. The exceptions would be improve- ments in electricity access (including micro- and mini-hydro generation and distribution) which is the responsibility of the MEMD, and irrigation rehabilitation and development at the secondary and tertiary levels, which is the responsibility of MAAIF. In participatory catchment planning, all stakeholders are present, including civil society (including for example farmers or farmer organization representatives), local officials, businessmen and women, and the local representatives of the various Ministries with a concern for water. Hence, the results of prior and ongoing planning in the various Ministries at central and local levels are a part of the array of options considered by the catchment planning team and stakeholders, and the planning exercise will seek to balance trade-offs and build on synergies. Figure 7-1: Process for integrated and participatory catchment planning The actions agreed in an integrated water resources plan can be organized into two broad categories comprising the prioritized water management and investments plans. Prioritized Water Mgmt. Plans Prioritized Investment Plans • Water allocation • Resource mgmt: storage, watershed, recharge • Flood & drought mgmt. • Service delivery: irrigation, hydropower, WSS, livestock, fisheries, • Operating rules environmental services • Watershed, recharge, water quality management • Location, major characteristics, functional specs. Management Preparation Investment Preparation • Policy environment; Institutional (implementation arrangements, • Pre-feasibility, feasibility & detailed designs staffing, capacity-building) • Environmental & social assessment • Targeted studies & systems development • Financing & institutional arrangements • Financing arrangements Prioritized Investment Implementation & Monitoring Water Management Plan Implementation & Monitoring budget support. A specific intervention in this introduction of new technologies, instruments area, however, should be preceded by a sub-sec- and institutional arrangements. tor review and analysis (AAA) in collaboration with WSP and other donors active in this sub- • Urban sanitation in both NWSC large and sector (e.g., Japan and EU). The World Bank has DWD small towns is appalling and severely a comparative advantage in rural water supply, underfunded. This presents a major opportunity especially given its global experience in leading for World Bank support, which would bring and coordinating major sector reforms and the significant social, environmental and economic 81 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy benefits to the country. Sanitation interventions including assessments of economically-viable irriga- should be coordinated with source protection tion potential and an evaluation of aggressive plans programs for urban water supply. to build additional valley dams and tanks given their poor historical performance. • WSP for a number of years has provided tech- nical assistance to expand and improve rural Environmental services and climate resilience sanitation and is best placed to continue sup- porting a large scale rural sanitation program In the area of environmental and resource manage- addressing the enabling environment, capacity ment, wetlands and catchment management emerge building for local government, and private sec- as priorities for World Bank support. In these areas tor participation. there is, on the one hand, an unprecedented rate of depletion and degradation and, on the other hand, Rainfed farming and agricultural a high potential to contribute to Uganda’s economic water management growth and poverty reduction if carefully managed. All of the priority areas for World Bank engagement The need to improve productivity in rain-fed ag- in Uganda’s water sector that are discussed above riculture through agricultural water management, will build its resilience to climate variability and improved soil and water conservation, and explor- change, but the World Bank can support targeted ing the potential use of supplemental ground- interventions to help build the knowledge-base and water emerge as priority areas for Bank support. analytical tools necessary for mainstreaming climate Opportunities in this regard could be identified resilience into existing and future investments. through ongoing World Bank technical assistance on water for agricultural production designed to Other water-related investments inform the agricultural sector development project, planned for 2014. The study on the risks to rainfed Investments could include: multi-purpose stor- agriculture and mitigating measures proposed here age reservoirs including for flood management, as additional work will supplement these efforts micro hydropower generation, and rainwater and guide any additional World Bank investments harvesting for agriculture. However, these will in rainfed agriculture. Estimates of greater than ex- need to be identified and implemented within pected groundwater availability, even though highly an integrated planning framework that includes variable over space, present an important develop- all stakeholders and follows catchment boundaries ment opportunity for supplemental irrigation of (e.g., Water Management Zones, or sub-catchments rainfed crops where affordable technologies can be within these) to ensure that they are sustainable adapted to local groundwater conditions. in the longer-run. 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Policy Note on Agriculture for Inclusive Growth, Draft Report. 86 1 Annexes ANNEX A: WATER MANAGEMENT ZONES AT-A-GLANCE ANNEX B: SECTOR FACT SHEETS ANNEX C: DEVELOPMENT PARTNER ACTIVITIES ANNEX D: ACTION TABLES AND ACTION CLUSTERS ANNEX E: CLIMATE AND AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE IN UGANDA— MODEL SPECIFICATION, VARIABLES, SUMMARY STATISTICS 87 1 Annex A: Water Management Zones at-a-Glance LAKE KYOGA WMZ Introduction and Uniqueness • Home to about 30% of Uganda’s population; covers about a fourth of its area. • Sharp contrasts between the well-watered, high-density southern / central parts, and low-density, semi-arid northern part-- much of which is in the cattle corridor. Poverty is highest along the cattle corridor. • Flooding is a major issue, with floods in 1997 and 2003 causing high death tolls and major infrastructure damage. • Largest irrigation potential in Uganda, much of it identified on or near wetlands. • Significant small hydropower potential; major hydropower includes the Bujagali dam currently under construction. Climate and Rainfall Much of the zone receives a healthy 1,150 to 1,450 mm of rainfall, and estimates of groundwater recharge and sustainable groundwater re- sources are amongst the highest of all WMZs. Despite this, the entire area is characterized as having a rainfall deficit due to high evapotrans- piration. Climate is largely classified as dry sub-humid, with moderate to high water surpluses during the rainy season and water deficits in the dry season. Most of the North is classified as semi-arid, and rainfall below 850mm is common in these parts. As a net result, estimates of groundwater recharge and sustainable groundwater resources are the highest of all WMZs. Areas surrounding Lake Kyoga were devastated by the 1997 El Nino rains that caused severe infrastructure damage, displaced thousands, killed at least 30 and led to a cholera outbreak (See Map A-1). Floods along the Manfwa river in Summer 2003 resulted in 20 fatalities 700 being displaced in Mbala. Appreciable infrastructure damage was also caused by flooding in 2007. Floods near Lake Kyoga are often accom- panied by landslides, making them more lethal. 89 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Map A-1: Floods in the Lake Kyoga WMZ Socio-Economic Characteristics There is a marked difference in population density in the Central and Eastern parts of the country and the Population: The WMZ includes a population of Northern parts, where it is often less than 10 people about 9 million, about 30% of Uganda’s total popula- per square kilometer (see Map A-2). tion (calculated from UBOS 2009). About 0.8m of the population resides in urban areas, representing 20% There is a marked difference in poverty rates in the of Uganda’s urban population. Major towns include north and south portions of this WMZ. In the south, Soroti, Mbale and Tororo, while the districts of Soroti, poverty rates are largely below 50%, with the lowest Kamuli and Iganga have the highest populations. (20–30%) in areas surrounding Kampala and Jinja. Map A-2: Population density in the Lake Kyoga WMZ 90 ANNEX A: Water Management Zones (WMZs) In the North, the majority is generally below the supply coverage is estimated at about 58% (adapted poverty line, with poverty rates higher than 70% from NWSC data, 2009) with a functionality of about in the Northernmost districts. Poorer districts are 80–85%, on par with the national average. About largely located along the cattle corridor, while the half of the rural population has access to sanitation lowest rates are in Mbale and the surrounding area. (latrines). Farming systems: The Kyoga WMZ covers a large Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries: The major- portion of Uganda’s area, cutting across farming ity of Uganda’s irrigation schemes are located in systems with different characteristics. In the North, this WMZ, largely in the Southeast. More than rainfall has a distinctly bimodal pattern with a dry half of Uganda’s potentially irrigable area identi- season from October to April (Northern System) or fied in the 1970s HYDROMET study is located December to March (Teso system). The Banana/ here, largely in the area surrounding Lake Kyoga Millet and Banana/Millet/Cotton systems (see Map (Map A-4). However, a majority of this area is A-3) experience more evenly distributed rainfall classified as seasonal (and to a less extent, perma- and have more productive soils. The Northern half, nent) wetlands. covered almost entirely by the cattle corridor, has a pastoral system where livestock are prevalent over Several small dams exist, particularly in Soroti and the mostly short grassland. In effect, the WMZ con- surrounding areas. Valley tanks are less common in tains over a third of Uganda’s livestock units despite Kyoga compared to the Albert and Victoria WMZs. covering a fourth of its area. About one-fifth of the country’s valley tanks are located here, of which two-thirds are functional. Water Infrastructure and Utilization Fish catches in Lake Kyoga have fluctuated in recent years, while representing about 15–20% of Uganda’s Water Supply and Sanitation: Major areas with total catches. Several fish ponds are located around urban water supply production Mbale (at about the Lake, particularly in Soroti and Tororo. 4,000 cubic meters per day), Soroti and Tororo. A large portion of the district of Jinja is also located Hydropower: The Kiira-Nalubaale (Owen Falls) here, although the city of Jinja itself falls just within facilities are constructed on the Victoria Nile, which the Lake Victoria WMZ boundaries. Rural water drains Lake Victoria into Lake Kyoga. Power gen- Map A-3: Farming systems, the cattle corridor and agricultural infrastructure in the Lake Kyoga WMZ 91 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Map A-4: Hydropower and other major energy infrastructure in Lake Kyoga WMZ eration at the facilities is linked to Lake Victoria’s a significant trend for precipitation over the entire lake levels (refer to Power fact sheet), and in recent WMZ, projections for the end of the century are in years have operated below their effective installed higher agreement, pointing to an increase of between capacity of 200MW. The Bujagali hydropower facil- 150 and 225 mm. Runoff is projected to increase by ity (250MW), located 8 km downstream of the Owen just over 10% by mid-century (A1b). Falls site, is under construction and expected to be commissioned in late 2011. A few kilometers further Opportunities and Future Outlook downstream is the Kalagala site, with an estimated generation potential of 450MW.Small hydropower • Improving emergency preparedness and has not been developed in this zone, but multiple sites flood management have been identified around Mount Elgon and Mbale. Small hydropower potential is estimated at 17MW. • Catchment protection, particularly with respect to wetland degradation and bank erosion Climate Variability, Change and Risks • Enhancing food security by improving perfor- Consistent with what is observed across the coun- mance of existing irrigation schemes, exploring try, historic records show a statistically significant potential irrigation areas increasing trend in mean annual temperature for the WMZ, while future climate projections suggest • Improving hydrometereological and water that the temperature may further increase 1.4–1.5C resources monitoring systems, particularly in (A1B Scenario) by mid-century. Historically, there the North has been no significant trend in annual rainfall or the number of wet days. While future climate pro- • Actions to address the alarming poverty rates jections for mid-century (A1b scenario) do not show in Kyoga 92 ANNEX A: Water Management Zones (WMZs) LAKE VICTORIA WMZ Introduction and Uniqueness • Home to about a quarter of Uganda’s population, and covers about a fourth of its area. • Highest rainfall in Uganda; high agricultural and aquaculture production relative to rest of the country. • Poverty near the lake amongst lowest in the country; but slightly higher in cattle corridor areas. • Produces majority of country’s urban water supply, and includes large urban areas of Kampala, Entebbe, Mbarara. • Lake Victoria levels impact water use (incl. hydropower production) in the downstream WMZs. Climate and Rainfall Major floods are not very common in most of the WMZ, however flash floods are common in Kampala This WMZ receives the most rainfall compared to the and the surrounding area. Flash flooding in 1997, other WMZs, due to the presence of Lake Victoria, 1998, 2002 and 2003 were the results of heavy El over which 1,450 to 2,050 mm of annual rainfall is Nino rains. common (see Map A-5). Areas west of the Lake gen- erally receive between 1,000 mm and 1,450 mm, with Socio-Economic Characteristics small areas near Mbarara and Kikagati receiving between 850 and 1,000 mm. Despite this generally Population: This WMZ includes a population of high rainfall, much of its area (excluding the area about 7.6 million, about one-fourth of Uganda’s to- over Lake Victoria) has an annual rainfall deficit due tal population (calculated from UBOS 2009). About to high evapotranspiration. Areas around the lake 1.6m resides in urban areas (and most of these in have a moist sub-humid to humid climate, while Kampala), representing about 40% of Uganda’s much of the cattle corridor areas are dry sub-humid. urban population. Moderate to high water surpluses are observed dur- ing the rainy season, while the dry season exhibits Major cities and towns include Kampala, Entebbe, water deficits, leading to risks of drought. Estimates Mbarara and Jinja. Population density is high- of groundwater recharge and sustainable ground- est around Kampala, high on the periphery of water resources are some of the highest amongst the Lake, and lowest in the cattle corridor, as WMZs, particularly in the Eastern districts. shown in Maps A-6 and A-7. A large majority, but Map A-5: Rainfall in the Lake Victoria WMZ 93 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Map A-6: Population density in the Lake Victoria WMZ not all, of the Kampala district lies in the Lake Farming Systems: The WMZ contains two farming Victoria WMZ—smaller areas also lie in the Kyoga systems, namely the Banana/Coffee system and and Albert WMZs. Poverty incidence in most dis- the Pastoral System (see Map A-7.) In the former, tricts intersecting the WMZ are below 20 to 30% of banana and coffee are the main crops and maize the population, but are as high as 30 to 40% in the and sweet potatoes secondary crop. It has soils of cattle corridor districts. Increasing urbanization medium to high productivity, and is supported by and population pressures in Kampala and sur- a rather even rainfall distribution and appreciably rounding areas has resulted in wetland degrada- high rainfall, particularly around Lake Victoria. In tion as well as bank erosion and siltation of rivers the pastoral system, located within the cattle cor- and streams. ridor, pastoralism dominates over the mostly short Map A-7: Farming systems, the cattle corridor and agricultural infrastructure in the Lake Victoria WMZ 94 ANNEX A: Water Management Zones (WMZs) grassland. About a fifth of Uganda’s Total Livestock About a third of the country’s valley tanks are lo- Units (TLUs) are located in the WMZ. cated here, and of these three-fourths are functional. Water Infrastructure and Utilization Seven of Uganda’s ten large commercial aquaculture schemes are located in the WMZ, largely around the Water Supply and Sanitation: Major areas with periphery for Lake Victoria. Aquaculture produc- urban water supply production include Kampala— tion is the highest of all WMZs, particularly in the where about half of Uganda’s total urban supply is Wakiso, Mukuno and Masaka districts, where fish produced (about 150,000 cubic meters per day)—as production exceeds 1000 tons per year (NWRA 2010). well as Entebbe (about 11,500), Mbarara (about The majority of Uganda’s fish catches are from Lake 7,000) and Masaka (about 3,600). Rural water sup- Victoria, although annual catches have been fluctuat- ply coverage is estimated at between 60 and 65% ing in recent years. (adapted from NWSC data, 2009) and functionality at between 80–85%, or about the national average. Hydropower: This WMZ has largely flat terrain and Rural sanitation coverage (access to latrines) is above is generally not conducive to the development of the national average, at about 75%. hydropower facilities. The largest small hydropower facility (Kikagati, 20MW) here has been licensed but Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries: There are is not yet operational (see Map A-8). While a couple few existing irrigation schemes, save for a hand- of small hydropower sites have been identified in the ful located near Jinja. Large potential irrigable Southwest, including near Kikagati, potential hydro- areas were identified Southeast of Jinja in the 1970s power capacity there is very limited. Production at HYDROMET study, although some of this area is the Kiira-Nalubaale facilities at Owen Falls, which covered by seasonal or permanent wetlands whose lie just outside the WMZ boundaries, is affected by conversion would now be governed by the country’s (and affects) the lake levels at Lake Victoria. recent wetland regulations and laws. Floriculture is practiced in many areas near Entebbe and Kampala. Climate Variability, Change and Risks A high concentration of small dams and valley tanks Consistent with what is observed across the coun- are located in the Western half of the WMZ, particu- try, historic records show a statistically significant larly in the cattle corridor and on its peripheries. increasing trend in mean annual temperature for the Map A-8: Hydropower and other major energy infrastructure in the Lake Victoria WMZ 95 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Lake Victoria WMZ, while future climate projections Opportunities and Future Outlook suggest that the temperature may further increase 1.4–1.5C (A1B Scenario) by mid-century. Historically, • Management of lake levels and releases from there has been no significant trend in annual rain- Lake Victoria fall, although the number of wet days per year were found to be increasing. While future climate • Improved waste management (including indus- projections for mid-century (A1b scenario) do not trial effluent, stormwater) show a significant trend for precipitation over the entire WMZ, projections for the end of the century • Catchment protection to address bank erosion are in higher agreement, pointing to an increase in and wetland degradation as a result of poor annual precipitation of between 150 and 200 mm. land use Runoff is projected to increase by just under 20% by mid-century (A1b). • Flash floods in Kampala and surrounding areas • Deteriorating quality of rivers, streams and lakes (including algal blooms in Lake Victoria) 96 ANNEX A: Water Management Zones (WMZs) ALBERT NILE WMZ Introduction and Uniqueness • Home to just under 30% of the country’s population, and covers just over a fourth of its area. • Rainfall over the WMZ is quite high and evenly distributed; however major flooding is common in the southwest. • Highest small hydropower potential in the country (mostly in Southwest); large hydropower includes Karuma dam. • Poverty rates are lower relative to Kyoga and Upper Nile WMZs. • Contains most of Uganda’s national parks and forest reserves (including Queen Elizabeth National Park) • Contains Uganda’s recently discovered oil fields along the Albertine rift. Climate and Rainfall astating of these have occurred along the Semuliki, which drains Lake Edward into Lake Albert, and Annual rainfall over the WMZ varies, with rainfall of nearby rivers. Floods in late 1988 and late 2001, 1,150 to 1,450 mm over most of the basin, as high as each following heavy torrential rain, led to scores 1900 mm over Rwenzori mountains, and lower than of deaths and thousands being displaced. 700mm in some parts. Much of the area experiences a rainfall deficit due to high evapotranspiration. Most Socio-Economic Characteristics of the basin experiences a dry sub-humid climate, with moderate to high water surpluses are observed Population: This WMZ includes a population of during the rainy season and water deficits in the dry about 8.6 million, about 30% of Uganda’s total season, leading to risks of drought. Areas with higher population (calculated from UBOS 2009). About rainfall and higher elevation are generally character- 1.1m resides in urban areas, representing about a ized by a moist sub-humid or humid climate. quarter of Uganda’s urban population. Major cities and towns include Kabatoro, Lira, Masindi, Fort The WMZ has experienced major flooding, particu- Portal and Nyakibali, with population density be- larly in the Southwest (see Map A-9). The most dev- ing highest in the areas near Mount Rwenzori and Map A-9: Floods in the Albert Nile WMZ 97 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Map A-10: Population density in the Albert Nile WMZ the Queen Elisabeth national parks (see Map A-10). Farming Systems: Much of the WMZ contains the A small portion (less than a third) of the Kampala Banana/Coffee system, where banana and coffee and Wakiso (containing Entebbe) districts lies in the are the main crops and maize and sweet potatoes WMZ. Poverty incidence in most districts intersect- as secondary crops (see Map A-11). This system has ing the WMZ is below 30 to 40% of the population, soils of medium to high productivity, supported but exceeds 40% in the Northern-most districts and by evenly-distributed, high rainfall. Portions in the in a couple Western districts bordering the DRC. Southern half are covered by the Montane system, Map A-11: Farming systems, the cattle corridor and agricultural infrastructure in the Albert Nile WMZ 98 ANNEX A: Water Management Zones (WMZs) with farming on high elevations, generally high number of valley tanks and some small dams are rainfall, and intensive and high-density smallholder located in Eastern parts of the WMZ that lie in or agriculture. In the Northern half (Northern and along the cattle corridor. The WMZ has over a third Banana/Millet/Cotton systems; areas along the of Uganda’s valley tanks, and 80% of these are func- cattle corridor) rainfall is less stable than and live- tional (highest of all WMZs.) The WMZ has a couple stock raising is a major activity. About one-fourth large aquaculture schemes, and an appreciable of Uganda’s Total Livestock Units are located here. number of fish ponds exist in some areas outside the cattle corridor. Catches in Lake Albert and Edward Water Infrastructure and Utilization are about 15–20% of Uganda’s total lake catches. Water Supply and Sanitation: Major areas with Hydropower: The Albert WMZ has high poten- urban water supply production include Bushenyi, tial for further hydropower development, both Hoima, Kabale, Fort Portal, Kasese and Masindi. large and small (See AN4). In terms of large dams, Production from these facilities is generally between construction of the Karuma dam (250/700 MW) is 1,000 and 2,000 cubic meters per day. Rural water expected to commence in 2011/12. Downstream of supply coverage is estimated at about 70% (adapted Karuma is the Ayago site, where preliminary studies from NWSC data, 2009) and functionality of these have indicated hydropower potential of about 550 supplies is 80–85%, or around the national average. MW (PSIP, MEMD 2009). Further downstream is Over two-thirds of the rural population has access the 750 MW Murchinson Falls site, excluded from to sanitation. Uganda’s development plans after initial studies determined that it would have significant, adverse Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries: Existing irri- environmental impacts if developed. A handful of gation schemes are limited in the WMZ, but appre- small hydropower facilities (combined capacity of ciable potential irrigable areas have been identified 15MW) are operational within a few kilometers of in the WMZ, North of Lake Kyoga, on the Albert the Rwenzori mountains. Total small hydropower Nile, along Lake Edward, and along the Katonga potential is about 150MW, about three-fourths of river. 15% of Uganda’s irrigable area identified Uganda’s 200+MW potential. Most of these identi- in the HYDROMET study lies in the WMZ. A fair fied sites are along Uganda’s Western border. Map A-12: Hydropower and major energy infrastructure in the Albert Nile WMZ 99 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Climate Variability, Change and Risks increase by just under 20% by mid-century (A1b). Consistent with what is observed across the coun- Opportunities and Future Outlook try, historic records show a statistically significant increasing trend in mean annual temperature for • Management of releases and levels of Lake the WMZ, while future projections suggest that the Victoria temperature may further increase 1.4–1.5C (A1B Scenario) by mid-century. Historically, there has • Managing impacts from development of been no significant trend in annual rainfall or num- Oil resources ber of wet days. However, a statistically significant increase in the number of extreme flood events has • Flood management been observed over the last century. While future cli- mate projections for mid-century (A1b scenario) may • Further development of Hydropower (both large not show a significant trend for precipitation over the and small) entire WMZ, projections for the end of the century are in higher agreement, pointing to an increase of • Improved environmental management between 110 and 200 mm. Runoff is projected to (Particularly for national parks) 100 ANNEX A: Water Management Zones (WMZs) UPPER NILE WMZ Introduction and Uniqueness • Least populated WMZ, with 15% of total population (under 5 m people) in an area about a fourth of the country. • Severe poverty, with majority living below the poverty line; poverty interventions have been largely unsuccessful. • Potentially irrigable area and agricultural infrastructure is lowest in the country. Climate and Rainfall Uganda also displaced hundreds in the Nebbi dis- trict, located on the Southwestern edge of the WMZ. Average annual rainfall over the WMZ varies appre- Heavy rains in 2007 also caused moderate flooding of ciably, from below 850 mm in its Northeast portion the Aswa river in the Lira and Gulu/Pader districts. to as high as 1,450–1,600 mm in its Southern portion. Rainfall follows a unimodal intra-annual rainfall Socio-Economic Characteristics pattern, with one long “wet season�, in contrast to the Southern parts of the country, where bi-modal Population: This WMZ includes a population of rainfall patterns are more common. about 5 million, about 16% of Uganda’s total popu- lation (from UBOS 2009). Only about 0.5m (or 10%) Much of the WMZ has a dry sub-humid climate, reside in urban areas. Large towns include Gulu and with moderate surpluses over the rainy seasons Arua, and population density is generally higher in and water deficits in the dry seasons. Due to high the Western parts of the WMZ, particularly along evapotranspiration, the entire portion of the WMZ the borders with Sudan and DRC (see Map A-13). experiences an annual water deficit. Estimates of Poverty incidence is the highest of all WMZs, with groundwater recharge and sustainable groundwater the majority of the population living under the pov- resources are among the lowest amongst of WMZs. erty line. In eastern parts of the WMZ, poverty rates exceed 70% of the population. Poverty reduction Flooding is not very common in the Upper Nile, al- efforts in recent years have had marginal impacts though the 1997/1998 El Nino rains that devastated at best (Uganda CAS, World Bank 2011 Map A-13: Population density in the Upper Nile WMZ 101 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Map A-14: Farming systems, the cattle corridor and agricultural infrastructure in the Upper Nile WMZ Farming Systems: The majority of the Upper Nile this is located in the same area, along the Albert Nile WMZ has a distinctly bimodal rainfall pattern, in the West. Save for a few small dams and valley with average annual rainfall of 1200mm and a dry tanks in the cattle corridor, agricultural infrastruc- season from October to April-- what is termed the ture is severely underdeveloped. Less than 10% of “Northern� agricultural system (see Map A-14). the country’s valley tanks are located here, and of The crops grown here include finger millet, simsim, these only half are fully functional. In the absence of cassava, sorghum, tobacco and cotton. The western major lakes, some fish production takes place along portion is characterized under the “West Nile� sys- the Albert Nile and in fish ponds in and around tem, largely similar to the Northern system except Gulu and Lira. that livestock are limited by the presence of the tsetse fly. In the very East, pastoralism is the main activity. Hydropower Potential: While there is no potential About 15–20% of Uganda’s Total Livestock Units for large hydropower, some (16 MW) potential for (LTUs) are located in the WMZ. small hydropower exists, mostly along and west of the Albert Nile. This potential is largely untapped, Water Infrastructure and Utilization save for a couple licensed or online facilities. Water Supply and Sanitation: Major areas with Monitoring: Hydrometereological and water re- NWSC urban water supply production include Arua sources monitoring systems have been virtually de- and Gulu. Rural water supply coverage stands about stroyed during the civil strife, and availability of good 60% (adapted from NWSC data, 2009), the lowest in data for planning and management is very limited. the country, and functionality of existing schemes stands at below 80%, also the lowest in the country. Climate Variability, Change and Risks About a third of the rural population has access to latrines, far below the national average. Consistent with what is observed across the coun- try, historic records show a statistically significant Agriculture and Irrigation: Current irrigated area increasing trend in mean annual temperature for the is very limited. Irrigation potential is also limited, Upper Nile WMZ, while future projections suggest with about 10% of the country’s estimated irrigable that the temperature may further increase 1.4–1.5C area (as per HYDROMET) located here. Much of (A1B Scenario) by mid-century. Historically, there 102 ANNEX A: Water Management Zones (WMZs) has been no significant trend in annual rainfall or Opportunities and Future Outlook the number of wet days. While future climate pro- jections for mid-century (A1b scenario) do not show • Improving access to water supply and sanitation a significant trend for precipitation over the entire WMZ, projections for the end of the century are in • Improving food security higher agreement, pointing to an increase of 150 to 225 mm. Runoff is projected to increase by just over • Establishment of robust monitoring networks 10% by mid-century (A1b). • Managing the potential for conflict over land and water resources 103 Annex B: Sector Fact Sheets FOCUS ON: AGRICULTURE HIGHLIGHTS The agricultural sector accounts for 23% of Uganda’s GDP, 48% of exports and em- ploys 73% of the population aged 10 and older. While the sector’s growth rate has been low in recent years, export potential remains strong. The majority of farming is small in scale and rain-fed, where productivity is low and vulnerability to climate variability (including floods and droughts) is high. Food insecurity impacts a major- ity of the population, particularly in Karamoja. Irrigation is largely underdeveloped, with 14,000 to 20,000 ha (formal) and 42,000 to 67,000 ha (informal) irrigated out of a potential 200,000 to 450,000 ha. Efforts are underway to harness irrigation through rehabilitation of old schemes and development of new ones. With water for agricultural production emerging as a GoU priority, there is an urgent need for clarity on institutional roles and responsibilities of Ministry of Water and Environ- ment (MWE) and Ministry for Agriculture, Animal Industries and Fisheries (MAAIF). Livestock and fisheries are important agriculture subsectors, with the livestock sub- sector making up a significant portion (~ 20%) of the agricultural GDP, and fish being the second leading foreign exchange earner after coffee. Despite significant investments in infrastructure, water storage capacity meets a fraction of livestock needs, and functionality of valley tanks (24%) and earth dams (15%) is very low. Pastoralists lead semi-nomadic lifestyles in order to find water for their livestock, particularly in the “cattle corridor� where most of Uganda’s livestock is located. The fish subsector is experiencing declining catches due to poor fisheries management, over-fishing and pollution. Introduction and Context Uganda’s economy is strongly linked to its agriculture sector, which accounts for 24% of GDP and 48% of exports (NDP). The agriculture sector employs 73% of the population aged 10 or older (NDP). The sector’s overall growth rate has been very low, at 1% from 2003 to 2008. The slow growth rates in the agricultural sector are related to several key factors, including a decline in the terms of trade for agriculture, lower agricultural production, and lower prices for the sector’s key cash crops (NDP). 104 ANNEX B: Sector Factor Sheets Links with Water Sector The agriculture sector falls mainly under the Ministry of Agricultural, Animal Industry and Fisheries. Major uses of water for agriculture include water for MAAIF, tasked with promoting agricultural develop- crops, water for livestock, water for aquaculture as ment generally, is responsible for water management well as water for rural industries. In terms of relative relating to “on-farm� water for agricultural produc- water use, crops (67%) have been estimated as being tion (WfAP), including irrigation, animal produc- the most significant, followed by livestock (21%), tion and aquaculture. MAAIF recognizes irrigation fisheries (10%), and rural (1%) of the total water use development and improved productivity in rainfed estimate of 500 MCM per year for the agricultural agriculture as key to its mission of “transforming sector (MWE SIP 2009). subsistence farming to commercial agriculture.� Policy and Institutional Setting The MWE’s Directorate of Water Development (DWD) is the primary authority responsible for GoU has placed agriculture, and water as a development of water for productive uses, which key input, at the center of its development strat- covers all sectors that productively utilize water— egy. The National Development Plan prioritizes including “off-farm� use of water for agriculture. It agriculture among key productive sectors driving is responsible for the construction of dams, valley the economy. tanks and irrigation facilities. Map B-1: Major farming systems, water for production facilities, existing and potential irrigation, and the cattle corridor (adapted from NWRA, MWE 2011) Note: Larger maps for each WMZ can be found in Annex A. 105 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Under the Africa Union’s New Partnership for and providing a secure source of protein. The live- Africa’s Development, Uganda is committed to stock census (2008) indicated that livestock numbers the Maputo Declaration for Comprehensive Africa have increased across all types. Agriculture Development Program (CAADP), whose goal is to promote agriculture-led develop- Over the past several decades, GoU has invested ment and economic growth in its member countries in water infrastructure, primarily for livestock and the region. but also meant to provide for domestic use and irrigation. According to reports, over 1000 small Current Status dams and valley tanks have been constructed. Only 23% of these ‘WfP’ facilities are functional. The About 37% of Uganda’s land is under small scale main causes are poor siting, design, and construc- farming, where agriculture is dominantly rain-fed, tion and lack of community ownership leading to productivity is low and crop and livestock yields heavy rates of siltation and mechanical problems. are only a quarter to half of what could be achieved, Meanwhile, estimates are that livestock receive even with present technologies. By contrast, only only a third of their daily water requirements (DSIP, 0.4% is under large-scale, commercial farming. MAAIF 2010). Food crops, which account for two thirds of the Fisheries are an important source of livelihood for country’s agricultural GDP, include matooke, sweet 1.2m people in Uganda. Fish is Uganda’s second potatoes, cassava, maize, rice and beans. Major cash leading foreign exchange earner, after coffee, al- crops include coffee, tea, tobacco, cotton, sugarcane, though earnings have fluctuated in recent years. cocoa, wheat, palm oil, barley and oil seeds. Food Annual catches in Uganda increased steadily since crops have not, on average, exhibited robust positive the 1960s, peaked in 2004, and have been largely growth from 2003 to 2008, partly due to instances of decreasing since 2004; a trend attributed to poor significant floods and droughts. fisheries management, over-fishing, water pollution and water hyacinth proliferation. Dwindling catches Uganda’s key export crops are coffee, tea and tobac- in Lake Victoria, where about 60% of fish catches oc- co. Fluctuations in production and prices of these key cur, is of particular concern. Catches in Lake Kyoga export crops, particularly coffee, have a significant (16%) and Lake Victoria (15%) are also perilously low impact on an economy-side level and livelihoods. (NDP). The number of fish species is also decreasing, and fish ecosystems transforming, for many reasons By most estimates, irrigation is largely underdevel- including the introduction of the Nile Perch. oped, although there is a wide range of estimates for potentially irrigable area (200,000 to 450,000 ha) and Fish pond farming is practiced both commercially areas under formal (14,000 to 20,000 ha) and informal and on a smaller scale, with about half of the 10,000 (42,000 to 67,000 ha) irrigation. The large majority ha of fisheries used for each type. Average yields (~80%) of irrigation developments use surface ir- for commercial fisheries (15,000 kg/ha) are up to rigation, while low-cost technologies (15%) such as ten times that of subsistence farmers (MAAIF DSIP treadle pumps play an important role in smallholder 2010). There are largely located on the periphery of areas (MWE SIP 2009). Irrigated area has increased Lake Victoria (See Annex A). in recent years, with most irrigation developments located in Eastern Uganda (see Map B-1.) Constraints and Risks The livestock subsector contributes about 20% of the In principle, the division of institutional agricultural agricultural GDP, and most of Uganda’s livestock mandates is clear, with MWE/DWD responsible for herds are located in Uganda’s “cattle corridor�, ‘bulk water supply’ (or supply to the bulk head) and shown in Figure B-1. Livestock and livestock prod- MAAIF, for ‘on-farm development’. In practice, the ucts play a key role in raising incomes of households split in responsibility has led to significant confu- 106 ANNEX B: Sector Factor Sheets sion and slowed progress in the development and Opportunities management of water for agriculture. The GoU has acknowledged that confusion over Low productivity on Uganda’s dominantly rain-fed roles and responsibilities between MWE and MAAIF small-scale farms means that crop and livestock on WfP is a key roadblock to the sector. Capacity yields are only a quarter to half of what should be building in both ministries could be catalytic, as the achievable by current technologies. MWE currently lacks strong in-house irrigation ex- pertise, and MAAIF water expertise (Consultations With only 23% of WfP facilities being fully func- with MWE and MAAIF, 2010). tional, GoU’s substantial investments in water infrastructure are not able to effectively address Past investments in agricultural research and livestock water demands and provide a cushion advisory services in Uganda have yielded signifi- against widespread droughts. cant benefits. However, further efforts are needed in: farmer empowerment; collaboration between Fish catches have fluctuation in recent years, with research and advisory services, in particular at the significant declines in some years for Lake Victoria. local level; providing advisory services rather than This has the result of pollution (e.g. from industries, inputs; enforcing regulations for inputs (seeds, urban sewage, storm-water runoff and erosion) and fertilizer, etc.); and improving veterinary services poor fishing practices (e.g. undersized fishing nets for livestock. and fishing in breeding areas). 107 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy FOCUS ON: POWER HIGHLIGHTS The large majority (92%) of energy consumed in Uganda is in the form of fuel wood (biomass), with the rest from imported liquid fuels (7%) or electric power (1%). Power shortages affect all sectors of Uganda’s economy, and about 10% of the population has access to electricity. Hydropower and thermal power are the only sources of electric power developed to any significant extent. Before the discovery of oil, hydropower was identified as the least-cost energy generation option. Current hydropower capacity in Uganda is less than 250 MW, relative to a 400 MW demand and a 2200 MW potential. Two large hydropower projects, Bujagali (expected to come online in 2011/2012) and Karuma (construction expected to commence in 2011), are expected to increase hydropower capacity by about 500 to 850 MW, allowing Uganda to meet the large majority of its projected demand over the next decade., and possibly export more of its hydropower in the East Africa region. The current hydropower portfolio, with major facilities located between Lakes Victoria and Albert, is overwhelmingly reliant on the Nile’s hydrologic variability. In addition, power system losses are very high at 40%. Micro and mini hydropower (with an additional ~200 MW potential) present one option to close the supply gap in the interim, while Bujagali and Karuma are brought online. In the long term, thermal power from the oilfields near Lake Albert will play a larger role in Uganda’s energy portfolio.planned industrial parks). Introduction and Context Policy and Institutional Setting Uganda is heavily reliant on nonrenewable sources The power sector falls under the Ministry of of energy. The large majority (92%) of energy con- Energy and Mineral Development (MEMD.) sumed in Uganda is in the form of fuel wood (bio- whose key departments include the Energy mass), with the remainder coming from imported Resources Department (including the electric liquid fuels (7%) and electric power (1%). Poor power division), and the Petroleum Supply and infrastructure (including energy infrastructure) has Petroleum Exploration and Production Departments. been identified as the most binding constraint to Bodies for the regulation, generation, transmis- growth in Uganda. sion and distribution of electricity also fall under the Ministry. Power shortages are experienced in all sectors of Uganda’s economy, and only about 10% of the popu- A comprehensive Energy Policy for the sector was lation has access to electricity (NDP). At 60 kWh/ developed in 2002, with a goal to meet the energy year, Uganda’s per capita electricity consumption needs of Uganda’s population in an environmen- is very low, and average cost of electricity (about tally sustainable manner. A Renewable Energy 22 cents/kWh) is relatively high compared to other Policy, developed in 2007, sought to increase the East African countries (8 cents/ kWh in Tanzania; use of modern renewable energy from 3.8% to 61% 13 cents/kWh in Kenya) (NDP). High system losses by the year 2016. The 1999 Electricity Act lays out mean that 40% of power is lost during distribution. the framework for the regulation of the generation, transmission, distribution, sale, import and distribu- Links with Water Sector tion of electrical energy. Out of the potential sources of electric power, only On a regional level, development is being guided by hydropower and thermal power have been devel- the East Africa Power Master Plan under the East oped to any significant extent. Prior to the recent African Community. Regional power transmission discovery of oil near Lake Albert, hydropower has and trade is becoming increasingly significant in been identified as the least-cost energy generation Uganda, with appreciable investment in regional option for Uganda (Bujagali Study 2007). infrastructure underway. 108 ANNEX B: Sector Factor Sheets Current Status Hydropower generation at Owen Falls is controlled by natural flow conditions (e.g. rainfall), hydrologic Current hydropower capacity in Uganda is less than conditions (e.g. inflow) and releases from both dams. 250 MW, relative to a 400 MW demand and total Releases have historically been governed by the 1 potential of over 2300 MW. Hydropower is gener- “Agreed Curve�. Power generation from both sites ated largely from large hydropower facilities (with has been limited to even less than 200 MW in recent a generation capacity of about 200 MW), with the years (e.g. 135MW in 2007) largely due to the declin- rest generated at a handful of small and mini/micro ing water level in Lake Victoria. hydropower plants, largely located in the Southwest part of the country. The gap between demand and The 250 MW Bujagali hydropower station, located supply necessitates the use of expensive thermal 8 km downstream of these two facilities, is under power that runs on imported diesel fuel. construction and expected to be commissioned in 2011–2012. Planning is at an early stage for The capacity of the Uganda’s existing large hydro- power facilities is effectively limited to about 200 1 The Agreed Curve is a mathematical formula to regulate water MW. The Nalubaale (180 MW) and Kiira (200 MW) release from the Owen Falls dam, agreed on between the Egyp- tian government and the British government (acting on behalf stations are both located (in parallel) at Owens falls. of Uganda) in 1954. It relates water levels of Lake Victoria to lake outflows in such a way that the Lake’s natural flows (i.e. in absence of a Dam) are simulated. Map B-2: Existing and proposed large and small hydropower in Uganda. Source: adapted from national water resources assessment, December 2010 draft (DWRM). 109 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy the Karuma hydropower project (250/600–700 of unmet demand in the short-term and medium- MW) with some reports suggesting that construc- to-long-term, respectively. tion is expected to commence in 2011. While the original study for Karuma considered a gen- At the same time, a significant reliance on hydro- eration capacity of ~250 MW, subsequent studies power generated on the Nile could make Uganda’s have reportedly explored utilizing a higher head energy sector vulnerable to hydrologic variabil- drop, increasing the plant’s generation capacity to ity, particularly under a changing climate. This 600–700 MW. vulnerability has already been demonstrated by declining lake levels in Lake Victoria, which affected Existing small hydropower plants include Mobuku (and were affected by) hydropower generation at I (5.4MW) and Mobuku III (10.5 MW), developed Owen Falls. by mining companies. Similarly, smaller (60KW to 120KW) hydropower stations exist to supply iso- The inefficient delivery of power, with 40 per cent lated hospital centers. Potential small and micro/ of power being lost during transmission, remains mini hydropower capacity is estimated at 220 MW. a challenge, particularly as a large amount of new Generally, potential for new facilities (primarily run- generated power prepares to enter the system. of-the-river micro/mini plants) has been identified on rivers draining the Rwenzori Mountains (Lake Opportunities Albert WMZ) and Mount Elgon (in the Lake Kyoga WMZ, see Annex A). In the interim period while Bujagali and Karuma are brought online, periods with appreciable gaps On a regional level, the planned East Africa Power in demand and supply may exist. Options to close Pool Project will support the development of the this gap could include the development of feasible East Africa Power Market and strengthen backbone small hydropower facilities. If connected to the grid, lines in Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya and Rwanda these facilities can help diversify the current power (CAS). Work on transboundary electricity grid portfolio away from the large hydropower sites (at connections (to Rwanda, Kenya, DRC and Sudan) Owen Falls) that are vulnerable to hydrologic vari- is underway. ability. Alternatively, these facilities could be devel- oped to further rural electrification in areas outside Constraints and Risks the main grid. With the two upcoming major hydropower projects Other options to close the demand include solar at Bujagali (250 MW, expected to come online in photovolatic systems, which have been identified 2011) and Karuma (250/600–700 MW, construction to as a least cost technology to provide electricity for commence in 2011), Uganda’s hydropower capacity small, scattered communities (Rural Electrification will improve significantly. It is expected that these Master Plan, MEMD, 2001). developments will be able to meet a large majority 110 ANNEX B: Sector Factor Sheets FOCUS ON: WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION HIGHLIGHTS Uganda has made significant progress in improving access to water supply and sanitation in recent years, and appears to be on track to meeting some of its 2015 Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP) targets. Access to water systems has continued to grow in rural (61% to 65%) and urban (51% to 67%) areas over the past few years, while functionality has decreased slightly (83% to 80% in rural and 93% to 90% in urban areas). Significant increases in rural (57% to 70%) and urban (currently at 77%) access to sanitation are documented. Water quality of supplied water in large towns has generally improved. Although this significant progress, several challenges remain. While access to sanitation (defined as access to latrines and toilets in rural and urban areas respectively) is good and improving, sewerage coverage is very low at less than 7% for NWSC towns and next to negligible in DWD small towns. Both surface and groundwater quality are deteriorating, due to domestic and industrial wastes, agricultural run-off and poorly constructed sanitation facilities. Compliance with water resources permits is low, particularly for wastewater discharge permits (40%). Emerging trends include a projected shift towards piped schemes in rural areas, a strategic emphasis on public-private partnerships for small-town supply, and additional demands on urban supply systems due to urbanization/industrialization (including establish- ment of planned industrial parks). Introduction and Context areas2 (which include 23 large towns and 30 satel- lite areas) with a population of just under 3 million Uganda’s Water Supply and Sanitation (WSS) sec- people. Meanwhile, the DWD provides services to tor is organized differently in urban areas and rural just over 200 small towns through 85 water supply areas, where needs are very different. schemes, including Municipalities, Town Councils and Town Boards not served by NWSC. Here, Policy and Institutional Setting development is undertaken by MWE (specifically, DWD); management is overseen by MWE through The Water Act (1997) provides the overarching legal various mechanisms (including contracts with pri- framework for the use, protection and management vate operators in 75 of 85 schemes). Areas covered of water resources and water supply. The National by NWSC, and DWD small towns, are shown in the Water Policy (NWP), adopted in 1999, is the govern- WMZ maps in Annex A. ment’s guiding policy objective for water resources in the country, including for the provision of water In rural areas (areas with populations below 5,000) of an adequate quantity and quality. the water supply and sanitation sub-sector falls un- der the Directorate of Water Development (DWD), The WSS sector in Uganda is managed through dif- District Water Offices and Technical Support Units. ferent institutions. In urban areas, there are two enti- On a district level, funds for WSS are channeled ties engaged in supporting or delivering urban WSS through the on-budget District Water Supply and services; the parastatal National Water and Sewerage Sanitation Conditional Grants (DWSCG). Larger Corporation (NWSC) and the MWE’s Directorate of WSS infrastructure is often constructed by DWD. Water Development (DWD). In practice, NWSC pro- vides services to urban “large towns� while DWD provides WSS services to urban “small towns.� The 2 18 supply areas are covering the 23 towns of Kampala/ Mu- kono, Njeru/ Jinja/ Lugazi/ Iganga, Entebbe, Tororo/ Malaba, National Water and Sewerage Corporation (NWSC) Mbale, Masaka, Mbarara, Lira, Gulu, F/Portal, Kasese, Kabale, supplies water and sanitation services to 18 supply Arua, Bushenyi/ Ishaka, Soroti/Kaberamaido, Hoima, Masindi, Mubende as well as 30 other satellite urban areas. 111 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy while functionality has decreased slightly (93% to Definitions for PEAP Indicators 90%). Between 1 and 1.5m people lack access to sup- Progress in the sub-sector is measured relative to 2015 targets set ply systems in both NWSC towns as well as DWD out in the 2015 Poverty Eradication Action Plan (PEAP), some of towns. Sanitation coverage stands at 77%. Water which are more ambitious than MDG goals. Some key indicators quality in large towns has generally improved, and are described below: water supplies are from surface water sources. Access to safe water is the percentage of people within 0.2 km Access rates in DWD towns (~ 50% on average) are (urban) or 1 km (rural) of an existing and improved water source. Functionality is defined as the percentage of improved water significantly lower than in NWSC towns (about sources that are functional at the time of a spot check (rural areas) 70%). While access to sanitation (defined as access to and the ratio of the actual hours of water supply from the system toilets in urban areas) is good and improving, sew- to the required hours of supply, as expressed as a percentage erage coverage is very low. In the 14 NWSC towns (urban areas). Access to sanitation is the percentage of households that operate centralized storage system, coverage (HH) with access to improved sanitation, where the definition of for sewerage services is 6.4%. In DWD small towns, “improved sanitation� varies for rural areas, where it is defined as latrine coverage by the MoH, and urban areas, where it is defined sewerage coverage is next to negligible. as sanitary toilets by NWSC and MWE (MWE SPR 2009). In both urban and rural areas, both surface Indicator values and other statistics in this Fact Sheet are taken and groundwater quality are generally dete- from the October 2010 Water and Environment Sector Perfor- riorating, due to domestic and industrial wastes, mance Report. agricultural run-off and poorly constructed sanita- tion facilities. Compliance with water resources Current Status permits is low, particularly for wastewater discharge permits (40%). Rural Areas: Access to water systems has increased in rural areas (from 61% to 65%) while functionality of existing supply systems has decreased (83% to Figure B-1: Water Supply coverage in NWSC, 80%) over the past five years (2005–10). Overall, just small towns and rural areas (from SSIM, 2008) under 9m people still lack access to water supplies in Uganda’s rural areas (See Figure B-1.) Sanitation 25.00 coverage has also increased significantly (from 57% to 70%). 20.00 Villages (defined as rural areas with populations 8.61 less than 1,500) typically obtain their water sup- ply from point sources (38% of the total are deep Population (m) 15.00 boreholes; 25% shallow wells; see Figure B-2) while rural growth centers (1,500 to 5,000) are sometimes served by mechanized water supply systems (piped 10.00 or gravity-fed schemes). Functionality is highest for piped schemes (91%) and lowest for shallow wells 14.65 (69%), as shown in Figure B-2. MWE’s projections 5.00 show a significant shift in the mix of technologies 1.33 in rural areas, with substantial increases in the per- centage of the population served by piped schemes 3.10 1.10 0.00 0.83 (MWE WSS SSIP 2009). (NWSC) Small Towns Rural Areas Urban Areas: Access to water supply systems has Covered Not Covered increased in urban areas (from 51% to 67%) areas 112 ANNEX B: Sector Factor Sheets Figure B-2: Percentage of rural water supply systems that were functional at spot-check (SPR 2010). Make-up and Functionality of Rural Water Supply Systems Constraints and Risks consumption and transmission and distribution losses. In Kampala, this is as high as 43%. Significant rates of urbanization and industrializa- tion (including the planned industrial parks, which Opportunities would include water-intensive industries) will place additional demand on existing urban supply sys- In small towns, MWE’s strategy includes encour- tems. Meanwhile, the rural population of Uganda aging private sector investments through public- is expected to grow from just over 20m currently private partnerships (particularly for small scheme to more than 50m in 2035, pointing to multiplying developments) and a demand-responsive approach needs in rural supply systems as well. to small town development through use of the Water and Sanitation Development Facility. Deteriorating water quality at supply sources, particularly Murchinson Bay (where Kampala’s Emphasis on efforts towards improving opera- wastewater is discharged) is a key emerging issue. tions and maintenance—through subsidies, grants, greater engagement with Umbrella Organizations Over a third of water supply by NWSC is considered and the NWSC Extension service—is also expected “non-revenue water� i.e. water is that lost to illegal to continue (MWE WSS SIP 2009). 113 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy FOCUS ON: INSTITUTIONS development�. In practice, there appears to be a lack of clarity over roles and responsibilities for water for Key National Institutions agricultural production. The Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE) has At the national level, several ministries are involved primary responsibility for water resources manage- with the sector: ment and development in accordance with the Water Act (1997) and National Environment Act (1995). The • Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Ministry contains three directorates: the Directorate Development (MFPED): Allocation and provi- of Water Resources Management (DWRM), the sion of financial resources including coordination Directorate of Water Development (DWD), and of donor inputs and the privatization process. Directorate of Environment Affairs (DEA). Refer Figure B-3 below. • Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE): Policy formulation, setting standards, strate- DWRM, established during institutional reforms gic planning, coordination, quality assurance, in 2003, is the lead agency responsible for water re- provision of technical assistance, and capacity sources management. DWD is the lead agency that building (refer detailed discussion below). coordinates and regulates all water supply and sani- tation sub-sector activities and services to local gov- • Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development ernments responsible for provision of WSS services (MEMD): Responsible for the power sector. Its in rural areas, as well as urban areas that lie outside key departments include the Energy Resources the jurisdiction of the National Water and Sanitation Department and Electric Power division. There Corporation. On paper, DWD is also charged with is weak linkage with MWE in terms of incorpo- “off farm� water supply for water for production, rating competing uses in its hydropower plan- while the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industries ning, development and operations. and Fisheries (MAAIF) is responsible for “on-farm Figure B-3: Structure of the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE Website) 114 ANNEX B: Sector Factor Sheets • Ministry of Local Government (MoLG) : and has slowed progress in the development and Establish, develop and facilitate the manage- management of water for agriculture. ment of efficient and effective decentralized government systems capable of delivering the • Ministry of Disaster Preparedness and Refugees required services to the local people, including (MoDPR): GoU’s focal point for disaster pre- water supply and sewerage services. paredness and risk reduction, and operating through the Office of the Prime Minister. Its • Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industries and capacity is limited, and data sharing and coor- Fisheries (MAAIF): Promotion of management dination with other agencies are a challenge. and development for water for production (crops, animal production and aquaculture). A • Other Ministries include the Ministry of Health Memorandum of Understanding between the (MoH) which is involved with the promotion of MWE and MAAIF defines the responsibilities hygiene and household sanitation, the Ministry of each institution on water for agriculture, with of Education and Sports, (MoES) involved with MWE responsible for ‘bulk water supply’ and sanitation and hygiene education in schools, MAAIF, for ‘on-farm development’. In practice, and Ministry of Gender, Labor and Social the split in responsibility has led to confusion Development (WGLSD). 115 Annex C: Development Partner Activities Table C-1: Ongoing MTEF Water Sector Projects Total: $ 116.0m (Current as of July 2010) Amount US$ Donor Project Name (m) Period Sub-Sector Austria South Western towns Water and San. Phase 3 (JPF) 10.30 2006/07–2010/11 Small Towns Austria Joint Wat & San Sector Programme Support (JWSSPS) 4.10 2007/08–2009/10 JWSSPS3 Austria Support to JWSSPS for WSDF Northern Uganda 2.21 2008/09–2009/10 Small Towns Belgium CDM Capacity Development Project 2.94 2010–2013 Climate Change Denmark Stakeholder capacity building in Climate Change Issues 0.4 2008–2012 Climate Change Denmark Support to climate change policy development 0.79 2008–2012 Climate Change Denmark Support to preparations for COP 15 2.17 2008–2011 Climate change Denmark Establishment of Climate change unit 0.99 2008–2012 Climate Change Denmark Joint Partnership Fund 14.9 2010–2013 JWSSPS1 Denmark Unallocated 1.98 2009/10–2012/13 Unallocated Denmark Sector Budget Support (General PAF) 41.03 2008/09–2009/10 Unallocated EU South Western Towns Water and Sanitation Phase III 12.88 2007–2013 Small Towns EU Mapping of Ground water Res. In Uganda 2.23 2008–2011 WRM Germany Joint Partnership Fund (basket) 0.44 2008/09–2010/11 JWSSPS1 Japan Direct Support to Mbale District Supply 0.08 2008/09 Small Towns Sweden Joint Partnership Fund 2008-2010 (basketfund) 6.85 2007/08–2009/10 JWSSPS1 Sweden Sector Budget Support WS 2008-2010 (JWSSPS) 7.06 2007/08–2009/10 JWSSPS1 Sweden Phase Out Support WS (JWSSPS) 4.66 2009/2010 JWSSPS1 3 Joint Water and Sanitation Sector Program Support (JWSSPS) supports several water sub sector activities, and includes funds channeled through the Joint Partnership Fund (JPF) and Sector Budget Support (SBS). 116 ANNEX C: Development Partner Activities Table C-2: Ongoing Non-MTEF Water Sector Projects Total: $141.2m (Current as of July 2010) Amount US$ Donor Project Name (m) Period Sub-Sector AfDB Kampala Sanitation Project 51.68 2008/09–2012/13 NWSC AfDB Integrated WSS urban poor project in Kagugube, Kampala 0.54 2007–2010 RWS Austria Emergency WSS Facilities: Lira and Kitgum 0.80 2008/09 – 2012/13 RWS Austria Water, Ag. & San. integrated program in Rakai 0.53 2006/07–2011/12 RWS Austria Sustainable WSS Service Delivery in Pader District 1.12 2009/10–2012/13 RWS Performance Improvement through Learning in Sanitation (PILS) in Austria Northern Uganda 0.52 2009/10 – 2011/12 RWS Austria Programme Management and TA 0.82 2010/11–2012/13 JWSSPS4 Denmark JWSSPS Technical Assistance 2.37 2010–2013 JWSSPS2 Denmark Program Management and Review JWSSPS 0.99 2010 – 2013 JWSSPS2 Denmark Civil society fund 0.99 2010–2013 JWSSPS2 EU AMREF: WSS Umbrella program 4.93 2007–2013 RWS EU Support to Private Operators of Small Town WSS 0.32 2007–2010 Small towns EU Rural Water and Sanitation w/ Danish Red Cross 4.64 2007–2011 RWS EU WASH/UNICEF initiative for Rural Poor 5.51 2007–2011 RWS EU Kampala Sanitation Project 10.30 2008–2013 NWSC France Gaba: Water Intake Project (Loan) 4.76 2009–2011 NWSC France Jinja: Water Intake Project (Grant) 1.70 2009–2010 NWSC Germany Kampala WSS Program 1 (KfW) 6.55 2008/09–2011/12 NWSC Germany Kampala Sanitation Program Lake Victoria (KfW) 9.00 2008/09–2011/12 NWSC Germany Kampala Sanitation Program 2 STP (KfW) 14.72 2008/09–2012/13 NWSC Germany Urban Poor Kisenyi 2.71 2009/10 NWSC Germany Reform of the Urban W&S Sector (RUWASS) - GTZ 2.24 2008/9–2010/11 Small towns Japan Study on WRD&M for Kyoga Basin 4.05 2008/09–? WRM Norway Water supply and hygiene in Tororo via UWASNET 0.68 2010 RWS Sweden Program Monitoring & External Follow Up / Dialogue 0.70 2008/09–2009/10 JWSSPS2 USA Northern Uganda Water Dev. Program (NUWATER)  4.00 2008–2011 RWS WB Urban Poor OBA 4.00 2009/10–2011/12 NWSC 4 Joint Water and Sanitation Sector Program Support (JWSSPS) activities support several water sub-sectors, and includes funds channeled through the Joint Partnership Fund (JPF). JWSSPS Non-MTEF funding is typically used for technical assistance (e.g. technical advisors housed in MWE) and program management support (e.g. donor monitoring). 117 Annex D: Action Table and Action Clusters This Annex considers the full set of actions identified in Chapter 3. Based on the extent to which each action meets the identified prioriti- zation criteria (Chapter 5) and the degree to which that action is being addressed by ongoing GoU/DP/WB initiatives (Chapter 6), several ac- tion areas where gaps remain are identified. Areas where gaps remain, and where the Bank may be well placed to provide support (Chapter 7), are grouped into 8 groups of Action Clusters. LEGEND FOR ACTION CLUSTERS Status: Actions that will, to a large extent, be addressed by ongoing GoU/DP/WB initiatives Actions that will, to a significant extent, be addressed by ongoing GoU/DP/WB initiatives Actions that will, to some extent, be addressed by ongoing GoU/DP/WB initiatives Proposed Activities for WB: Actions that can, in large part, be addressed under proposed WB work (Focus Areas) Actions that can, in some part, be addressed under proposed WB work Clusters: CLUSTER 1: Develop comprehensive Knowledge Base and Analysis CLUSTER 2: Undertake Special Studies CLUSTER 3: Modernize Relevant Institutions CLUSTER 4: Strengthen Planning Activities CLUSTER 5: Strengthen Enabling Policy and Regulatory Framework CLUSTER 6: Introduce Policy Instruments CLUSTER 7: Develop Asset Management System CLUSTER 8: Prepare, Finance, and Implement prioritized investments 118 ANNEX D: Action Table and Action Clusters Proposed Activities for   Ongoing Activities WB Action Status   GoU DP WB   5 years Long term WATER RESOURCES                 • Set up strong WMZ institutions for water resources planning, coordination and management.     x x     CLUSTER 3   • Explore water storage in the context of IWRM planning.     x x     CLUSTER 4   • Improve surface water monitoring.     x x     CLUSTER 1   • Implement source and catchment protection programs.     x       CLUSTER 7   • Develop a good groundwater knowledge base, covering all districts.     x x     CLUSTER 1   • Better management, including by extending the limited groundwater level monitoring network.     x       CLUSTER 1   • Extend the limited groundwater quality monitoring network.     x       CLUSTER 1   • Improve sanitation facilities and source protection.             CLUSTER 8   • Plan and implement groundwater abstraction (for multiple uses) and recharge programs.     x         • Move water from water-abundant to water-scarce regions (i.e. inter-basin transfer).     x         • Develop and use hydroplanning tools for Lake Victoria.     x x x     • Implement activities to reduce point and nonpoint pollution (esp. near towns).     x x x     • Strong involvement in regional water-related programs (e.g. NBI/NEL; LVBC; IGAD, EAPP).     x x x     CLIMATE       • Improve the hydrometereological monitoring system.     x x     CLUSTER 1   • Risk mapping including floodplain surveys (e.g. LIDAR).     x       CLUSTER 2   • Implement program to improve wetland management and conservation.     x x     CLUSTER 4   • Initiate drought risk mapping.     x       CLUSTER 2   • Improve weather forecasting, communication, and drought preparedness programs.     x       CLUSTER 1   • Strengthen soil and water conservation programs.     x       CLUSTER 4   • Undertake climate risk assessments (historical and projected) of each WMZ, and upstream areas.     x   x   CLUSTER 2   • Comprehensive program to address historic climate variability and climate change.     x x     CLUSTER 4   • Mainstream climate resilience into existing and future investments, explore carbon finance.     x       CLUSTER 4   • Strengthen forecast and early warning systems.     x       CLUSTER 1   • Implement watershed management to reduce erosion in steep slopes.     x x     CLUSTER 4   • Land use planning and zoning.     x         (continued on the next page) 119 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Proposed Activities for   Ongoing Activities WB Action Status   GoU DP WB   5 years Long term • Structural measures for flood management.     x         • Introduce insurance schemes for risk management.                 AGRICULTURE, LIVESTOCK AND FISHERIES     • Improve understanding of rain-fed agriculture risks and mitigation options.     x       CLUSTER 2   • Program to improve soil and water conservation in rain-fed agricultural systems.     x x     CLUSTER 4   •  Conduct studies on performance of WfP facilities to improve sustainability.     x       CLUSTER 2   • Strengthen programs for wetlands management.     x x     CLUSTER 1   • Scope locations for new WfP facilities within a IWRM planning framework.     x       CLUSTER 4   • Develop small-scale supplemental groundwater irrigation, where appropriate.     x         • Improve knowledge base on livestock (e.g. future potential, productivity, value-added).     x x       • Improved fisheries management, regulation and law enforcement.     x x       • Improve aquaculture support programs.     x         • Develop environmental guidelines for aquaculture.     x         • Rehabilitate existing viable WfP facilities and introduce appropriate management systems.     x           • Rehabilitation and modernization of existing irrigation schemes, including headworks.     x x       •  Improve understanding of irrigation potential.     x x x     • Studies on commercial irrigated agriculture for high-value and/or export-oriented crops.     x   x     • Investigate new technology for improving irrigation productivity.     x x x     • Strengthened agricultural advisory and research systems.     x x x     • Further strengthening pollution control in major water bodies.     x x x     WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION     • Targeted training and capacity building to improve investment quality and performance.     x   x   CLUSTER 3   • Improve asset management and O&M framework.     x x     CLUSTER 7   • Identify and implement appropriate investments in urban water supply and sanitation.     x x x   CLUSTER 8   • Identify key issues at water supply sources.     x       CLUSTER 2   • Initiate and strengthen water supply source protection programs, including payments for environmental services.     x       CLUSTER 7   • Studies to understand and activities to reduce Non-Revenue water.     x       CLUSTER 7   120 ANNEX D: Action Table and Action Clusters Proposed Activities for   Ongoing Activities WB Action Status   GoU DP WB   5 years Long term • Rehabilitate selected urban systems.     x x     CLUSTER 7   • Identify and implement appropriate investments in rural water supply and sanitation.     x x x   CLUSTER 8   • Promote rainwater harvesting under appropriate conditions.     x       CLUSTER 8   • Continue to explore potential of groundwater for rural areas and smaller towns.     x         • Update existing investment plans to reflect current realities.     x   x     • Establish possible shortcomings in long term plans for expansion, incl. competing water uses.     x x x       HYDROPOWER       • Study potential negative impacts of oil exploitation and development.     x x x   CLUSTER 2   • Hydropower systems development planning and implementation (including trade-offs analysis).     x   x   CLUSTER 4   • Strengthen water abstraction and effluent discharge regulations for oil-related activities. x x • Construct and commission the Karuma dam.     x         • Scoping of viable small hydropower schemes.     x x x     • Improve Lake Victoria knowledge base, monitoring and decision support system.     x x x     ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES     • Strong wetland management and conservation programs, with a focus on community benefits.     x x x   CLUSTER 5   • Demonstrate and scale-up payments for environmental services.             CLUSTER 7   • Improve soil/water conservation and catchment management programs.     x x x   CLUSTER 4   • Improve wetland knowledge base, mapping, characterization, and value.     x x x   CLUSTER 1   • Improved eco-tourism infrastructure (e.g., WSS and water supply for wildlife).     x         •   Strengthen afforestation programs.     x x       WATER MANAGEMENT AND GOVERNANCE     • Build capacity in both ministries for water for agriculture.     x   x   CLUSTER 3   • Establish institutional arrangements; build capacity at WMZ level for catchment-based IWRM.     x x x   CLUSTER 3   • NWSC: Explore innovative institutional arrangements.     x x     CLUSTER 3   • Support implementation of Water Action on good governance.     x x x   CLUSTER 3   • Studies on value of water to the economy.     x x x   CLUSTER 2   • Conduct a Public Expenditure Review for water sector.     x       CLUSTER 2   (continued on the next page) 121 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy Proposed Activities for   Ongoing Activities WB Action Status   GoU DP WB   5 years Long term • Develop IWRM plans in WMZs with stakeholder participation.     x x x   CLUSTER 4   • Strengthen enforcement of environment and water laws by building capacity in environment/water agencies.     x x x   CLUSTER 3   • Build capacity of the MoDPR, particularly in mapping and analysis.     x       CLUSTER 3   • Strengthen links between MoDPR and other ministries.     x       CLUSTER 3   • Strengthen data sharing and joint planning exercises (MEMD/MWE).     x       CLUSTER 3   • Plan hydropower investments and operation within an IWRM context.     x       CLUSTER 4   • Review and update existing water policy and legislative framework.     x x     CLUSTER 6   • DWD: Make better use of PPPs and OBAs. Identify growing towns that could require NWSC inputs.     x x x   CLUSTER 7   • Realign SIPs for consistency with IWRM framework.     x           • Clarify Institutional roles between MWE, MAAIF.     x   x       • Rural: Explore enhanced community involvement in WSS management.     x x x     • Develop strategy for improving private sector participation in water sector.     x x x     • Continue development of comprehensive IWRM strategy.     x x x     122 Annex E: Climate and Agricultural Performance in Uganda—Model Specification, Variables, and Summary Statistics The Ricardian approach is named after David Ricardo, who observed that land rents reflect farm net revenues. Farm net revenue (R) reflects the net productivity and costs of individual crops and livestock: where PQ is a vector of market prices of a corresponding vector of farm outputs Q, X is a vector of purchased inputs (other than land), PX is the input price vector, and Z is a vector of other exogeneous variables, including soil quality, climate, economic environment, and household characteristics. Households are assumed to operate in a competitive environment (i.e. they are price takers). The above equation is therefore interpreted as each farmer/household chooses inputs and outputs to maximize his/her net revenue subject to climate (e.g. temperature and precipitation) and soil conditions, in addition to other key economic and household characteristics. For empirical estimation, equation 1 is specified as follows: In the model above the farm level [net] productivity L.O.ha of a farm i in a community c in a season t is a function of a series of covariates in X and in Z and of the joint influence of temperature and precipita- tion. Design matrix X includes dummy variables only, i.e. DSoil quality (fair), DSoil quality (good), DSoil topology (sloppy&hilly), TR.INFR, FIN.INFR, SEX.HEAD, OFF.FARM. Variables in Z are L.EXT.MKT, ELEV, TRAV.TIME.GCM, EDUC.HEAD, AGE.HEAD, HH.SIZE, L.ENT.ASST, and AGLAND. The error term is specified so that it incorporates a community random effect, i.e. ui,c,t = wc + ei,c,t which takes into account that farmers located within the same area/community can share common un-modeled fac- tors. Equation 2 is estimated using the tools available in the package mgcv for R developed and maintained by Wood (2011). 123 Uganda Water Assistance Strategy The table below provides a description of the variables used in the estimation: Symbol Definition Meaning Weighted sum of the populations of the neighboring urban units L.EXT.MKT Market extent (defined further below) Dummy equals 1 if a community has at least one of the following transport in- frastructure units: feeder roads (all or only dry season), trunk roads, railway stop, TR.INFR Transport infrastructure waterway transport, truck/pick-up for transporting inputs/produce ELEV Elevation Elevation AGE.HEAD Age of the head of the household Age AGLAND Agricultural land Total quantity of crop land travel time to the general most com- Total travel time to the general most common consumer market using the com- TRAV.TIME.GCM mon consumer market mon means of transport SEX.HEAD Sex of the head of the household Man/Woman FIN.INFR Financial infrastructure Dummy equals 1 if a community has bank branch office or microcredit institution OFF.FARM Off-farm opportunities Dummy equals 1 if a household member participates in off-farm markets Level of education of head of EDUC.HEAD household Years of schooling Household agricultural and non- Includes: hoes, ploughs, pangas, slashers, wheelbarrows, and other agricultural L.ENT.ASST agricultural assets and transport equipment HH.SIZE Household size Number of household members Average monthly precipitation in av.precsowing, av.preccultiv, the sowing, weeding, and harvest av.precharvest phases of a season av.tsowing, av.tcultiv, av.tharvst Average monthly temperature in the sowing, weeding, and harvest phases of a season av.prec.devsowing, av.prec.devcultiv, Average monthly deviation of precipitation from the long-term normal values in the sowing, weeding, and harvest phases av.prec.devharvest of a season av.t.devsowing, Average monthly deviation of temperature from the long-term normal values in the sowing, weeding, and harvest phases av.t.devcultiv, av.t.devharvst of a season DSeason Season Dummy variable: 1- second cropping season; 0—first cropping season; DSoil quality Soil quality 1- bad; 2-fair; 3-good DSoil topology (sloppy&hilly) Soil texture 1-sloping or hilly; 0-flat Note: The prefix ‘L’ indicates that the corresponding variable is in logarithms. The extent (or potential demand) of the market i (L.EXT.MKT–in logarithms) is defined in equation (3) as the weighted sum of the market sizes of the urban units around i. mj is the market size of urban unit j measured as its population, and − ij is the weight of urban unit j, where d is the distance from community i to ij the urban unit j. According to equation (3) on the next page, the extent of market i grows with the size and proximity of the urban units that surround it. This definition of effective market size allows for the possibil- ity that a farmer might not trade with the nearest urban unit, but instead with a unit that is further away but larger, a possibility which would be ruled out if only the size of the nearest urban unit were considered. 124 ANNEX E: Climate And Agricultural Performance In Uganda K EXT.MKTi = ∑ m j exp(−dij ) j =1 (eq. 3) The table below provides summary statistics of the variables used in the estimation: mean sd min max L.rev.ha 4.13 0.96 0.88 6.62 L.EXT.MKT 8.31 2.14 -0.09 13.25 ELEV 4128.26 774.31 1998.00 7506.00 HH.SIZE 6.37 3.15 1.00 29.00 AGE.HEAD 44.95 15.84 15.00 99.00 AGLAND 4.15 5.92 0.06 83.50 TREV.TIME.GCM 5668.87 5453.35 0.00 30000.00 L.ENT.ASST 9.36 1.26 6.22 15.90 EDUC.HEAD 4.96 3.81 0.00 17.00 av.precsowing 75.14 37.31 6.00 127.80 av.tsowing 23.46 1.96 16.85 28.90 av.tcultiv 22.56 1.75 16.63 26.47 av.preccultiv 155.36 29.97 36.50 276.90 av.tharvst 23.53 2.09 16.80 28.60 av.precharvst 35.65 16.75 8.70 91.45 av.t.devsowing 0.68 0.25 -1.54 1.17 av.prec.devsowing -12.52 19.50 -82.27 25.45 av.t.devcultiv 0.92 0.50 -1.75 1.61 av.prec.devcultiv 18.36 20.86 -29.42 79.26 av.t.devharvst 1.54 1.88 -2.81 4.75 av.prec.devharvst -50.53 17.52 -92.97 -14.06 DSeason 1.47 0.50 1 2 DSoil quality 2.29 0.64 1 3 DSoil topology (sloppy&hilly) 0.49 0.50 0 1 TR.INFR 0.92 0.27 0 1 SEX.HEAD 0.75 0.43 0 1 OFF.FARM 0.34 0.47 0 1 FIN.INFR 0.05 0.21 0 1 125 1818 H St. N.W. 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