Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products July 2022 © 2022 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations/World Bank Cooperative Programme. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products. © World Bank.” Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522- 2625; e-mail: pubrights@ worldbank.org. Cover photo: Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) can grow up to 15 kg. Photo Credit: G. Iskakov/H. Mikkola. ii Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS Contents Acknowledgments.......................................viii 6.2 Pursuing a Value-Oriented (as Abbreviations and Acronyms....................... ix Opposed to Volume-Oriented) Aquaculture Development Strategy......55 Abstract........................................................ x 6.3 Building a National Image for Executive Summary......................................8 Kazakhstan Fish....................................56 6.4 Domestic Market Development.......56 1. Introduction............................................. 13 6.5 Export Market Development............58 2. Natural Resources and 6.6 Supply-Side Interventions...............59 Socioeconomic Background....................... 15 6.7 Establishment of Genetic 3. Status and Trends of Fisheries and Resource Centers.................................60 Aquaculture Development.......................... 22 6.8 Environmental, Social, and 3.1 Fish Production............................... 22 Institutional Dimensions........................60 3.2. Contribution of Fish to the 6.9 Public Investments or Support........ 61 Kazakhstan Economy............................28 6.10 Building a Blue Economy for Kazakhstan Fisheries............................62 4. Assessment of Market Growth Potential......................................................34 6.11 Capturing the Potential..................64 4.1 Methodology and Data....................34 4.2 Domestic Markets...........................36 ANNEX A: Information on Resource and Socioeconomic Conditions........................... 67 4.3 Export Markets...............................40 ANNEX B: Status and Trends of Fish 4.4 Summary........................................ 41 Production in Kazakhstan............................. 71 5. Increasing Supply and Demand..............46 ANNEX C: Seafood Import and Export......... 75 6. Conclusions and ANNEX D: Estimation of International Recommendations......................................54 Market Potential for Kazakhstan’s Fish 6.1 An Urgent Need to Strengthen Exports......................................................... 91 Data and Statistics in Aquaculture and ANNEX E: Production of Major Fish Fisheries.............................................54 Species Groups.......................................... 105 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products iii BOXES Box 5.1. Interview with an industry expert Box 6.1: Common carp caught in from Rybprom............................................... 51 Kazakhstan...................................................56 FIGURES Figure 2.1: Kazakhstan’s population Figure 3.4: Aquaculture production prospects (2010–2050)................................ 15 growth rate in Kazakhstan from a global Figure 2.2: Map of Kazakhstan with its inland perspective, 2000–2018...............................26 water bodies................................................. 16 Figure 3.5: Aquaculture production in Figure 2.3: Pre-COVID 19 projection of Kazakhstan, 2018 by volume........................ 27 Kazakhstan’s per capita GDP (current $, 2017–2024)................................. 16 Figure 3.6: Aquaculture production in Kazakhstan, 2018 by value........................... 27 Figure 2.4: Food security and nutrition status in Kazakhstan............................................... 17 Figure 3.7: Contribution of aquatic products Figure 2.5: Animal protein intake - Kazakhstan to Kazakhstan’s international commodity versus regional/world patterns, 2013........... 17 trade.............................................................29 Figure 2.6: Trend in seafood supply and Figure 3.8: Top 10 imports of fish and utilization in Kazakhstan (1993–2013)..........20 fishery products, 2018 by value ...................30 Figure 3.1: Trends in aquaculture and fisheries Figure 3.9: Top five imports of fish and production in Kazakhstan (1988–2018)........23 fishery products, 2018 by volume................30 Figure 3.2: Kazakhstan capture fisheries Figure 3.10: Top five exports of fish and production growth from a global perspective, fishery products, 2018 by value ................... 31 2008–2018....................................................25 Figure 3.3: Top 10 species items in capture Figure E1: Sturgeon / paddlefish aquaculture fisheries production in Kazakhstan, 2018 by production in three neighboring countries of volume..........................................................25 Kazakhstan, 2015–2018.............................. 122 TABLES Table 2.1: Estimation of fish consumption in a Table 4.1: Comparison of Kazakhstan’s national household survey, 2018.................. 19 fisheries statistics from different sources....35 Table 3.1: Fish currently dominating waters Table 4.2: Estimation of Kazakhstan’s apparent and local fresh markets in Kazakhstan fish consumption, 2018................................36 (not to scale).................................................22 Table 4.3: Per capita fish consumption in Table 3.2: Latest available fisheries and regions similar to Kazakhstan, 2013.............38 aquaculture production statistics in Kazakhstan...................................................24 Table 4.4: Midterm projection of the domestic Table 3.3: Kazakhstan trade balance of market potential for finfish and shellfish, fish and fishery products, 2018....................32 2018–2030 ...................................................39 iv Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS Table 4.5: Export market status and Table C3: Kazakhstan’s import of fish and potential for fish and fishery products from fishery products (HS level 4 or 6), 2018.......79 Kazakhstan, 2018–2030...............................42 Table C4: Kazakhstan’s import of fish and Table 4.6: Domestic and export market growth fishery products (HS level 6), 2018..............80 potential driven by income and population Table C5: Russian Federation’s export of growth between 2018 and 2030...................43 fish and fishery products to Kazakhstan, Table 4.7: Growth potential in individual export 2018.............................................................. 81 markets between 2018 and 2030 driven by Table C6: Norway’s export of fish and income and population growth.....................43 fishery products to Kazakhstan, 2018..........82 Table 5.1: Targeted production Table C7: Iceland’s export of fish and in the KFDP ..................................................46 fishery products to Kazakhstan, 2018..........82 Table 6.1: Financial analysis for the culture of Table C8: China’s export of fish and fishery Caspian Salmon in cages in Kazakhstan.......63 products to Kazakhstan, 2018......................83 Table A1: Kazakhstan’s population, GDP, Table C9: Belarus’s export of fish and and natural resources from a regional and fishery products to Kazakhstan, 2018..........84 global perspective........................................67 Table C10: Estonia’s export of fish and fishery Table A2: Status and trend of per capita fish products to Kazakhstan, 2018......................84 consumption in Kazakhstan from a global/ regional perspective, 1993 versus 2013 ......68 Table C11: United Kingdom’s export of fish and fishery products to Kazakhstan, 2018..........85 Table A3: Estimation of Kazakhstan’s apparent fish consumption by product Table C12: India’s export of fish and fishery form, 2018 ...................................................68 products to Kazakhstan, 2018......................85 Table A4: Fish consumption in Kazakhstan Table C13: Lithuania’s export of fish and fishery by region, estimated from household survey products to Kazakhstan, 2018......................86 data..............................................................69 Table C14: Chile’s export of fish and fishery Table B1: Subnational distribution of total products to Kazakhstan, 2018......................86 fish production in Kazakhstan, 2019 ............ 71 Table C15: National markets of Kazakhstan’s Table B2: Capture fisheries production in fish and fishery export, 2018........................87 Kazakhstan versus selected countries in Table C16: Product composition of neighboring regions, 2000–2018.................. 72 Kazakhstan’s export of fish and fishery Table B3: Aquaculture production in products, 2018..............................................89 Kazakhstan from a regional perspective, Table D1: International market potential for 2000–2018................................................... 73 Kazakhstan’s export of frozen fish fillets nei Figure C1: Procedure of determining whether (HS030489) ................................................. 91 to use import or export data......................... 75 Table D2: International market potential Table C1: Kazakhstan’s import of fish and for Kazakhstan’s export of frozen fish nei fishery products, 2018.................................. 77 (HS030389)..................................................92 Table C2: Product composition of Table D3: International market potential for Kazakhstan’s import of fish and fishery Kazakhstan’s export of caviar substitutes products, 2018..............................................78 from fish eggs (HS160432) .........................93 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products v Table D4: International market potential for Table E1: Fisheries and aquaculture Kazakhstan’s export of fresh / chilled fish production of carp species in Kazakhstan.. 105 fillets nei (HS030449)..................................93 Table E2: First-sale price of carp production Table D5: International market potential in Kazakhstan, 2020................................... 106 for Kazakhstan’s export of frozen carp Table E3: Subnational variation of the (HS030325)..................................................94 first-sale prices of carp species in Kazakhstan, Table D6: Import of all trout products in the 2020........................................................... 107 top 20 markets for Kazakhstan’s fisheries Table E4: Retail prices of the products of export...........................................................95 carp species in Kazakhstan, 2020.............. 108 Table D7: Export market status and potential Table E5: Kazakhstan’s export of frozen for live fish products (HS0301) from whole carp (HS030325), 2018 ................... 109 Kazakhstan, 2018–2030...............................96 Table E6: Production of pike, perch, and Table D8: Export market status and potential pikeperch in Kazakhstan..............................110 for fresh/chilled fish products (HS0302) Table E7: Subnational distribution of from Kazakhstan, 2018–2030.......................96 pike, perch, and pikeperch production in Table D9: Export market status and potential Kazakhstan, 2019........................................ 111 for frozen fish products (HS0303) from Table E8: First-sale prices of pike, perch, Kazakhstan, 2018–2030 .............................. 97 and pikeperch in Kazakhstan, 2020............. 112 Table D10: Export market status and Table E9: Retail prices of pike / perch / potential for fish fillets and other fish meat pikeperch products in Kazakhstan, 2020....113 (HS0304) from Kazakhstan, 2018–2030......99 Table E10: Global fisheries and aquaculture Table D11: Export market status and production of pikeperch, 2018.....................116 potential for dried / salted / smoked / offal products (HS0305) from Kazakhstan, Table E11: World aquaculture production of 2018–2030 ................................................. 100 freshwater perch-like fishes, 2018 ............. 117 Table D12: Export market status and Table E12: Global fisheries and aquaculture potential for prepared/preserved fish, including production of northern pike, 2018...............118 caviar and caviar substitutes from fish eggs Table E13: Global fisheries and aquaculture (HS1604) from Kazakhstan, 2018–2030......101 production of European perch, 2018 ..........119 Table D13: Export market status and potential Table E14: Sturgeon aquaculture production in for shellfish products (HS0306 + HS0307 Kazakhstan................................................. 120 + HS0308 + HS1605) from Kazakhstan, Table E15: Operational sturgeon farms in 2018–2030.................................................. 102 Kazakhstan, 2017........................................ 120 Table D14: Export market status and Table E16: Sturgeon farming systems in potential for seaweeds and seaweed Kazakhstan, 2016 .......................................121 products (HS121221 + HS121229 + HS130231) from Kazakhstan, 2018–2030..................... 103 Table E17: Global sturgeons/paddlefishes aquaculture production, 2018..................... 122 Table D15: Export market status for non-food fisheries products (HS050800 + HS051191 + Table E18: Trout and salmon aquaculture HS230120) from Kazakhstan, 2018............. 104 production in Kazakhstan, 2016–2019........ 124 vi Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS Table E19: Rainbow trout aquaculture Table E28: Wholesale or retail price of production capacity in Kazakhstan, whitefish products in Kazakhstan .............. 135 2019............................................................ 125 Table E29: International markets of fresh or Table E20: Retail prices of trout products in frozen whitefish, 2018................................ 136 Kazakhstan, 2020....................................... 126 Table E30: Kazakhstan’s export of fresh / Table E21: Retail prices of salmon products chilled or frozen salmonids nei, 2018......... 136 in Kazakhstan, 2020................................... 127 Table E31: World production of whitefish Table E22: Top 10 rainbow trout farming (Coregonidae)............................................. 137 countries, 2018........................................... 128 Table E32: Major whitefish producing Table E23: Import of frozen whole trout countries, 2018........................................... 137 (HS030314) by the EAEC/EurAsEC, 2018.... 129 Table E33: Kazakhstan’s import of catfish Table E24: Import of fresh whole trout products, 2018............................................ 138 (HS030211) by EAEC/EurAsEC, 2018.......... 130 Table E34: Kazakhstan’s export of catfish Table E25: EU28’s import of frozen whole products, 2018............................................ 139 trout (HS030314) in 2018........................... 130 Table E35: Retail price of catfish products in Table E26: Trends of world salmon Kazakhstan, 2020....................................... 140 aquaculture production, 1970–2018........... 133 Table E36: Subnational distribution of the Table E27: Whitefish production in production of carp species in Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan, 2018 and 2019........................ 134 2019.............................................................141 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products vii Acknowledgments This report is a product of the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations/World Bank Cooperative Programme. The work was conducted by Dr. Junning Cai of FAO and Mr. Sarik Timirkhanov, Director of Aqua Alliance, a fish feed manufacturing and consulting firm based in Almaty, with support, inputs, and guidance from the World Bank team that was led by John Bryant Collier and included Randall Brummett and Bérengère Prince. Valuable advice and inputs were provided by FAO staff (Victoria Chomo, Haydar Fersoy, Aizhan Karabayeva, Dauren Oshakbayev, John Ryder, Mairam Sarieva, Thomas Shipton, Raymon van Anrooy, Weiwei Wang, and Xiaowei Zhou) and experts in Kazakhstan (Symbat Anuarbekov, Gabiden Akebaev, Roman Botabekov, Miras Gabbasov, Kuanych Isbekov, Aizhan Karabayeva, Denis Mushtakov, and Askhat Zhubaev). The report has also benefited from feedback received during a virtual stakeholder consultation workshop held on January 27, 2020. The team is grateful to peer reviewers Dinara Akhmetova, Jingjie Chu, and Jane Olga Ebinger. Additional useful comments and edits were made by Charles Pozniak. Managerial oversight and guidance were provided by Jean- Francois Marteau, Country Manager for Kazakhstan, and Kseniya Lvovsky, Practice Manager for Environment, Natural Resources, and the Blue Economy in Europe and Central Asia. viii Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS Abbreviations and Acronyms Central Asian and Caucasus Regional CACFish Fisheries and Aquaculture Commission CIF Cost, Insurance, and Freight COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease 2019 CP Crude Protein EAEC/EurAsEC Eurasian Economic Community European Bank for Reconstruction EBRD and Development EU European Union FAO Food and Agriculture Organization (of the UN) FCR Feed Conversion Ratio GDP Gross Domestic Product Harmonized Commodity Description HS and Coding System IMF International Monetary Fund IRR Internal Rate of Return IUU Illegal, Unregulated, or Unreported Kazakhstan Fisheries Development KFDP Programme by 2030 Network of Aquaculture Centres NACA in Asia-Pacific National Fisheries and Aquaculture NFDP Development Programme NPV Net Present Value RAS Recirculating Aquaculture System UN United Nations Vietnam Association of Seafood VASEP Exporters and Producers WAPI World Aquaculture Performance Indicators WCO World Customs Organization WEO World Economic Outlook Units g Gram kg Kilogram km Kilometer KZT Kazakhstan tenge $ United States dollar CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products ix Abstract Kazakhstan is home to a variety of commercially viable fish species, a large domestic market (1.83 million consumers in 2020), proximity to potentially lucrative export markets, and the resources necessary to expand the sector. The country has adopted a strategy to increase fish production by boosting fish farming and setting ambitious targets for aquaculture development by 2030. Domestic fish demand is expected to increase by 27% between 2018 and 2030. Yet Kazakhstan’s current policy framework, the National Fisheries and Aquaculture Development Programme (NFDP), is mostly supply driven, with inadequate consideration for whether or how the intended production expansion can be accommodated. To align the NFDP and related policies with Kazakhstan’s market growth goals, this report’s recommendations include: developing domestic markets; promoting export markets; strengthening the regulatory framework; pursuing a value-oriented production strategy; adopting environmental best practices; promoting a positive image of Kazakhstan’s fish through external public relations campaigns; and integrating Kazakhstan’s aquaculture into a larger system of sustainable landscape practices. x Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS Executive Summary Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products xi Executive Summary Background for their evaluation of the practicality and potential impact of the NFDP in Kazakhstan. At the request of the Government of Kazakhstan, It was agreed that more information about the World Bank and the Food and Agriculture potential markets was needed to effectively Organization (FAO) of the United Nations (UN) prioritize the broad range of interventions have conducted a series of reviews (2003, envisioned under the NFDP. 2010, 2016, and 2018) of the potential for growth in Kazakhstan’s fisheries economy. The This study was subsequently carried out on main conclusions of these studies include the behalf of the Ministry of Ecology’s Committee following: for Fisheries to explore national, regional, and more distant international market trends and ി Fish production has declined to about half opportunities for species and product forms of what it was under the USSR’s subsidies currently being produced or contemplated structure. under the NFDP. ി The main causes of decline in capture Findings fisheries are: unregulated access, decline of government stocking programs, and The study’s key findings are: reduction of flows in rivers due to diversion ി Kazakhstan is endowed with a variety of for irrigation and blockage for hydropower. fish species, a large domestic market (1.83 ി Unused government hatchery infrastructure million consumers in 2020), proximity to is available for stocking valuable fish potentially lucrative export markets, and species for income and conservation. abundant water resources. Relative to potential, Kazakhstan is underperforming ി There are abundant natural aquatic resour- in freshwater fish output, producing only ces that could be more intensively managed 0.0032% of the world’s inland aquaculture for the benefit of local communities and while having 5.14% of the total surface area gross domestic product (GDP). of inland water bodies. ി A large majority of registered fishers are ി Kazakhstan has adopted a strategy to subsistence/recreational in purpose. increase fish production by boosting fish ി The cost of modifying infrastructure to farming, setting ambitious targets for recover lost fisheries and aquatic bio- aquaculture development by 2030. Currently, diversity will be high compared to expected aquaculture production represents 13% of national returns on investment. Kazakhstan’s total fish production. Most In December 2018, these findings informed of the aquaculture production comes from a comprehensive National Fisheries and extensive/pasture aquaculture that relies Aquaculture Development Programme (NFDP) on natural productivity to grow hatchery- that was sent to the World Bank for review and produced fry or fingerlings stocked into advice. A mission was conducted in spring artificial and/or natural water bodies and 2019, during which a wide range of senior harvested, either commercially or through government specialists, local experts, and fee-based recreational fishing. seafood industry stakeholders were consulted ി The Kazakhstan NFDP is mostly supply 8 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS driven, with inadequate consideration of Recommendations whether or how the intended production The following key recommendations for expansion can be accommodated, either by Kazakhstan’s fisheries and aquaculture sector domestic or international market capacity. will help align the NFDP with market demand: This report seeks to inform the NFDP by examining fish production trends, trade, and ി Developing the domestic market. Increasing consumption and estimating domestic and domestic consumption should be a priority foreign market growth potential driven by for policy and planning. Even if the actual income and population growth. The report consumption is currently higher than what also offers a series of recommendations official statistics seem to indicate, fostering to maximize the government’s efforts to or strengthening the domestic fish market capitalize on the economic potential of the tends to be one of the most effective ways sector. to facilitate aquaculture development in the long run. ി In 2018, Kazakhstan had a slightly positive trade balance for seafood. According to UN ി Promoting export markets. Improving Comtrade statistics, the country exported the quality of fish production (in terms 108 different types1 of fish and fishery of freshness, cleanliness, and safety), products to 36 countries/territories in 2018, identifying and exploring niche markets for a total value of $116 million. Europe through proper marketing/branding was the largest market accounting for 85% strategies and innovation in value-added of the total. The country imported 205 products could make Kazakhstan’s seafood different types of fish and fishery products more attractive in foreign markets. These worth $96 million in 2018. recommendations could be achieved through a combination of targeted support ി Based on projected population growth to the private sector through, for example, and per capita income growth adjusted the creation of an incubator that could to the impact of the Coronavirus Disease bring together the private sector, public 2019 (COVID-19), domestic fish demand agencies, and academia and linking them is expected to increase by 27% between to a publicly financed capacity-building 2018 and 2030. Using the same approach, program and promotion campaign. export market growth is expected to increase by 13%. The domestic and export ി Strengthening monitoring, policy, and market growth potential for carp is the regulations. There is an urgent need to largest (30,379 tons), followed by roach strengthen data and statistics in aquaculture (6,422 tons) and perch/pike/pikeperch and fisheries. Evidence-based policy and (6,267 tons). The relatively low export planning are impossible without reliable market growth potential reflects the lack data and information. An effective legal of population growth and the relatively low and regulatory framework is also needed to income-driven growth in per capita demand ensure food safety, environmental integrity, in most export markets of fish and seafood and social license to operate. Proper site products from Kazakhstan. selection and zoning for aquaculture are needed to protect cage aquaculture in the 1 Measured by the number of different Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS) six-digit codes. The HS is administrated by the World Customs Organization (WCO) and is updated every five years. The system serves as the foundation for the import and export classification systems used by many trading partners. The HS assigns specific six-digit codes for varying classifications and commodities. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 9 Caspian Sea from existing and potential of management systems. Pikeperch is impacts of industrial and agricultural established in existing marketing channels, development on water quality—for example, minimizing the need to make adjustments from oil exploration and production. Planning in the value chain. Caspian salmon can and monitoring are also needed to prevent be produced to have the same culinary self-pollution of aquaculture activities. characteristics as the widely-known Atlantic salmon and could move as a specialty ി Pursuing a value-oriented (as opposed to product through similar value chains. Social volume-oriented) aquaculture development media have provided a powerful platform to strategy. At its current stage of development, propagate attractive images of Kazakhstan it may be difficult for Kazakhstan to rapidly fish to every corner of the world. Yet all increase aquaculture production. Species sub-sectors (fishing, farming, recreational with great market potential (for example, fisheries, processing, fish markets, food pikeperch) face technical constraints on catering services, and so on) need to live production, while species with relatively up to Kazakhstan’s new ‘Very Nice’ public mature farming technology (for example, relations campaign being promoted by carp, rainbow trout, and sturgeon) are the country’s Ministry of Tourism. A long- subject to limited domestic demand, term, systematic mechanism is needed to competitive international markets, or both. A coordinate these efforts toward a campaign volume-oriented development strategy may promoting and publicizing high-quality fish not yield desirable outcomes due to a highly from Kazakhstan. competitive global market. ി Developing and implementing of a strong ി Adopting a development strategy based on regulatory framework for aquaculture best environmental practices. Extensive/ development that prepares the industry for pasture aquaculture can be turned into a expansion and increased levels of scrutiny marketing advantage by selling fish grown in markets. Such a framework would as wild fish (or naturally farmed fish) for include carrying-capacity modeling, zoning, premium prices, as many consumers are surveillance, and biosecurity. Ongoing willing to pay for such ‘wildness.’ Under this consultation with stakeholders would also strategy, the focus of farming is on creating be needed to ensure clear messaging and adopting an environment- and fish- about the importance of sustainability as a friendly farming practices to produce high- prerequisite to accessing seafood markets quality fish and turn this into economic value of the future. through proper marketing strategies. ി Fostering adoption of production systems ി Promoting a positive national image for and value chains that are demonstrably Kazakhstan’s fish. The global drive to build ‘blue’—that is, environmentally sustainable. a healthy and profitable seafood and fishing Aquaculture is highly innovative. Best sector builds synergy between catch and practices are constantly evolving, including conservation. From an analysis of markets in Kazakhstan. Strong engagement and trade for Kazakhstan’s seafood, with adaptive research, including hiring pikeperch and indigenous salmonids seem international experts to work with local to be the products that are most likely to scientists and industry operators, can succeed commercially in the short term. rapidly bring Kazakhstan’s fish farmers up to Both of these are indigenous species and speed. Marketing information and support thus can be produced in a wide variety through awareness-raising could position 10 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS the country’s seafood as a high-quality, along river courses, and indoor ‘fish plants’ environment-friendly product for European as well as traditional ponds. Stocking as well as high-end domestic and Asian programs can support capture, recreational markets. fishing, or both. Each ecosystem has a ി Integrating aquaculture into sustainable different carrying capacity that determines landscapes. Aquaculture should develop how much of each kind of aquaculture in the context of sustainable watershed it can support. The government can use management. It can take many forms and new and existing technologies and natural can be conducted in a wide range of natural resource management science to support and artificial ecosystems, including cages in aquaculture mechanisms that encourage reservoirs or natural water bodies, raceways integration into sustainable landscapes. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 11 1. Introduction Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 1. Introduction A large population and abundant land and water only a limited discussion on production and resources give Kazakhstan great potential for other supply-side factors and a few highlights the development of aquaculture and fisheries. of governance and other institutional issues, The recent Kazakhstan Fisheries Development which need further study. Programme by 2030 (KFDP) calls for a strategy Section II provides a brief overview of the of shifting from fishing to fish farming and sets socioeconomic and natural resource conditions ambitious targets for aquaculture production.2 under which Kazakhstan is seeking to grow the The strategy is detailed and incorporates seafood sector. Section III reviews the status established best practices in fisheries and of aquaculture and fisheries development in aquaculture consistent with the Food and Kazakhstan, examines existing markets and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United trends, and explores the importance of the Nations (UN) Code of Conduct for Responsible fishing and aquaculture industry in the national Fisheries, but is almost entirely supply side food supply and economy. Section IV estimates with inadequate consideration of whether or the potential impact of income and population how the intended production expansion could be accommodated by existing and potential growth on domestic and international demand. markets. To address this question, an assessment Section V discusses ways to unlock the of current production and trade compared to growth potential for major fish species in the potential for expanded domestic and foreign Kazakhstan. Section VI concludes the report marketing of fish and other seafood production by recommending a value-oriented strategy in Kazakhstan was conducted in 2020 based for fisheries and aquaculture development on official statistics and the existing literature in Kazakhstan and exploring a potential way supplemented with the input of local expert forward accordingly. Supporting data are knowledge of Kazakhstan’s seafood industry. recorded in the Annexes. The information, knowledge, and insights The original work plan envisioned extensive provided by this report are intended to help the travel and consultation with the seafood industry Government of Kazakhstan and other investors/ but was constrained by the COVID-19 outbreak donors in the private and public sectors make and therefore limited to available import/export informed decisions on potential investments trade and market data and statistics from the FAO and other support to the country’s fisheries and the UN Comtrade Databases and informed and aquaculture sector. The report focuses on by virtual consultation with stakeholders, gray market and other demand-side factors with literature, and industry experts. 2 https://primeminister.kz/ru/news/pravitelstvo-prinyalo-programmu-razvitiya-rybnoy-otrasli-do-2030-goda-2911034 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 13 2. Natural Resources and Socioeconomic Background Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 2. Natural Resources and Socioeconomic Background Kazakhstan is the second most populated Kazakhstan’s population is expected to grow country in Central Asia (after Uzbekistan), to 21 million by 2030 (24 million in 2050), with and its 18.3  million population in 2018 was 60% (70% in 2050) of the people living in urban 0.24% of the world’s total (Table A1, Annex A). areas (Figure 2.1). FIGURE 2.1: KAZAKHSTAN’S POPULATION PROSPECTS (2010–2050) 24,02 22,37 20,64 18,78 16,25 69,11 60,02 64,12 56,83 57,67 51,67 51,47 51,36 51,23 51,01 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Percentage of females (%) Percentage of urban population (%) Total population (million) Data sources: UN World Population Prospects (2019 revision) and UN World Urbanization Prospects (2018 revision). Kazakhstan is comparatively better endowed projection by the International Monetary with inland water bodies. In comparison to its Fund (IMF), the country’s per capita GDP was 0.24% of the world’s population, Kazakhstan expected to reach $13,186 in 2024 (Figure 2.3). (Figure 2.2) is relatively rich in land and water The 5.7% annual national growth is higher than resources. It is the largest landlocked country the world average (4.1%). accounting for 2% of world total land area, Like many higher-income countries, the 5.1% of world total surface area of inland water prevalence of undernourishment in Kazakhstan bodies, and 0.2% of global total renewable water (2015–2017) is less than 2.5% (compared to over resources (Table A1, Annex A). 10% in the world), and it also has a low prevalence Kazakhstan is an upper-middle-income country of severe food insecurity (1.4% compared to with $9,440 per capita gross domestic product 8.2% in the world). But the country’s 21.3% (GDP) in 2018, higher than the Central Asian obesity rate in the adult population (2016) was average yet only 84% of the world average much higher than subregional, regional, and (Table A1, Annex). Based on the pre-COVID-19 world averages (Figure 2.4). CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 15 FIGURE 2.2: MAP OF KAZAKHSTAN WITH ITS INLAND WATER BODIES INLAND WATER Inland Water Land Subject to Inundation FIGURE 2.3: PRE-COVID 19 PROJECTION OF KAZAKHSTAN’S PER CAPITA GDP (CURRENT $, 2017–2024) 14.308 13.690 13.116 13.186 12.535 12.019 12.190 11.222 11.320 10.723 11.109 10.364 9.440 9.726 9.009 9.182 6.059 5.580 5.096 4.717 4.363 3.864 3.883 4.014 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 World Central Asia Kazakhstan Data sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) database (October 2019). 16 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS FIGURE 2.4: FOOD SECURITY AND NUTRITION STATUS IN KAZAKHSTAN Kazakhstan, < 2,5 Prevalence of undernourishment Central Asia; 5,6 (%; 2015-2017) Asia; 11,5 World; 10,7 Kazakhstan; 1,4 Prevalence of severe food insecurity in the Central Asia; 2,7 total population (%, 2015-2017) Asia; 6,2 World; 8,2 Kazakhstan; 21,3 Prevalence of obesity in the adult population Central Asia; 16,8 (18 years and older; %; 2016) Asia; 7,3 World; 13,2 Kazakhstan; 30,7 Prevalence of anaemia among women Central Asia; 33,8 of reproductive age (15-49 years; %; 2016) Asia; 36,6 World; 32,8 0 10 20 30 40 Data source: FAOSTAT − Suite of Food Security Indicators (updated on October 11, 2019). Kazakhstan’s 57.1 g/day per capita animal the share of fish and seafood in its animal protein protein intake in 2013 was much higher than the intake (2.8%) was much lower than the landlocked landlocked developing countries average (16.9 developing countries (6.8%) and the world (16.3%) g/day) and the world average (32.1 g/day). Yet in 2013 (Figure 2.5 and Table A2, Annex A). FIGURE 2.5: ANIMAL PROTEIN INTAKE - KAZAKHSTAN VERSUS REGIONAL/WORLD PATTERNS, 2013 Landlocked developing countries (2013) Kazakhstan (2013) World (2013) Fish & Seafood Fish & Seafood Fish & Seafood Other Other Other Finfish Shellfish Bovine meat Finfish Bovine meat 4,2% Bovine meat Eggs 2,7% 6,4% 4,6% 2,5% Meat 11,0% 6,8% 4,3% 16,5% Finfish Eggs 6,4% Meat Meat Milk & Eggs 13,7% 4,2% 6,8% 2,8% Pigmeat 4,8% Pigmeat 16,3% 14,5% 4,3% Pigmeat 43,0% 6,2% Eggs 8,7% 45,3% 45,9% Mutton & 2,2% Mutton & 40,9% goat meat goat meat 8,2% 49,7% 34,3% Mutton & goat meat 10,9% 36,7% 45,4% 16,1% 7,6% Poultry 4,6% meat Milk & Eggs 25,6% Poultry 4,8% Poultry 1,5% Milk Milk meat meat Other Milk Milk & Eggs Other meat Other meat meat Animal protein intake (2013): Animal protein intake (2013): Animal protein intake (2013): 16,9 g/capita/day 57,1 g/capita/day 32,1 g/capita/day Data source: FAOSTAT Food Balance Sheets (accessed January 2018), www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBSH. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 17 The official statistics support the common consumption by species is shown in Table 2.1. perception that in Kazakhstan, people The total consumption of each species can generally do not eat much fish. According to be calculated by the food balance approach: FAO,3 fish and seafood contributed 2.3% of production plus import minus export, and the Kazakhstan’s animal protein intake in 2017, corresponding per capita consumption is equal much lower than the 17.1% of the world average. to the total consumption divided by Kazakhstan’s FAO statistics based on the food balance 18 million population in 2018, resulting in an approach (that is, consumption = production estimate of 5.71 kg of consumption of carps; + import − export) 4 indicate that per capita 1.22 kg of consumption of roach; and 0.8 kg of fish consumption in Kazakhstan declined from consumption of perch, pike, or pikeperch (total 3.81 kg in 2000 to 2.86 kg in 2017. 5 Using the 7.73 kg). food balance approach (Table A3, Annex A), Low-income populations (that is, those with Kazakhstan national production statistics and income below subsistence level) appeared UN Comtrade import/export data are generally to eat much less fish (Table A4, Annex A). consistent, showing approximately 2.51 kg of This primarily reflects the dietary tradition per capita fish consumption in 2018 in line in Kazakhstan that is based on meat and with FAO statistics. dough products. Compared to high-income However, the food balance approach may populations, low-income populations tend to underestimate fish consumption in Kazakhstan be less influenced by a modern dietary culture because the official production statistics do not that includes healthy elements (for example, account for (a) fish production for fishers’ own vegetables and fish), and they also tend to consumption; (b) fish harvested in recreational be more conservative in their dietary habits. or amateur fishing; (c) undocumented import; In addition, fish is generally considered an and/or (d) production by illegal, unregulated, or expensive product, except in coastal villages unreported (IUU) fishing. where cheap fish are readily available. According to national household surveys Even with diverging figures, the trends in (Table A4, Annex A), Kazakhstan’s per capita Kazakhstan’s total fish and seafood consumption fish consumption was 11.3 kg in 2015, 10.9 kg are likely indicative and declined by more than in 2016, 10.7 kg in 2017, 13.2 kg in 2018, and half between 1993 and 1998 due to the reduction 14.6 kg in 2019. Fish consumption varied across in the food fish supply from domestic sources regions, but consumption in urban and rural (Figure 2.6). Since the late 1990s, the country’s areas did not appear to differ significantly. Given total fish consumption reversed the downward the 13.2 kg per capita fish consumption based trend primarily owing to a large increase in net on the household survey and the 18.32 million import (that is, fish import minus export) from population, Kazakhstan’s total fish consumption close to zero to nearly 50,000 tons between in 2018 was 241,269 tons. An estimate of fish 1992 and 2013. 3 FAOSTAT New Food Balances (accessed September 2020), http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FBS. 4 FAO. 2020. “Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. Food balance sheets of fish and fishery products 1961–2017 (FishStatJ).” www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/software/FishStatJ/en. 5 The FAO statistics on fish consumption are only updated to 2017 at the time of writing this report. 18 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE 2.1: ESTIMATION OF FISH CONSUMPTION IN A NATIONAL HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, 2018 I II III IV V VI VII VIII Trade (live weight Consumption (live Production (live weight, tons) Species (ranked by equivalent, tons) weight equivalent) consumption) Capture fisheries Aquacul- Total Per capi- Unre- Total Import Export ture Official (tons) ta (kg) ported All species 5,653 37,283 174,307 217,243 73,171 49,145 241,269 13.17 Carps 3,464 19,710 92,148 115,322 0 10,657 104,665 5.71 Roach 63 4,289 20,051 24,402 0 2,056 22,347 1.22 Perch/pike/pikeperch 49 6,647 31,074 37,770 0 23,086 14,684 0.80 Catfish 0 1,013 4,736 5,749 881 283 6,347 0.35 Salmon 0 0 0 0 6,144 0 6,144 0.34 Whitefish 254 104 487 846 0 0 846 0.05 Sturgeons 650 1 5 657 0 0 657 0.04 Rainbow trout 568 0 0 568 385 336 618 0.03 Others 603 5,520 25,806 31,929 Note: HS = Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System. I: National official statistics on aquaculture production - see Table A1. II: National official statistics on capture fisheries production statistics - see Table A1. III: 174,307 tons of unreported capture fisheries production of all species equal to 217,243 tons of total production (IV) mi- nus 5,653 tons of aquaculture production minus 37,283 tons of official statistics on capture fisheries production. The 174,307 tons of total unreported capture fisheries production attributed to individual species according to their shares in official capture fisheries production. IV: 217,243 tons of total production of all species equal to 241,269 tons of consumption (VII) plus 49,145 tons of export (VI) minus 73,171 tons of import (V). The total production of each individual species equal to official aquaculture production statistics (I) plus official capture fisheries production (II) plus estimation of unreported capture fisheries production (III). V: 73,171 tons of the import of all species equal to the live weight of official import statistics (52,150 tons) plus 21,021 tons of estimation of unreported import of herrings - see more detailed explanation in the text. Import of catfish equal to the live weight of 383 tons of import of frozen catfish fillet (HS030462). Import of salmon equal to the total live weight import of 4,686 tons of frozen Atlantic salmon (HS030313), 136 tons of fresh/chilled Atlantic salmon, and 440 tons of frozen Pacific salmon (HS030312). VI: 49,145 tons of the export of all species equal to the live weight of official export statistics. Estimation of the live weight equivalent of export of individual species explained in detail in the text. VII: 241,269 tons of the live weight consumption of all species equal to 13.17 kg per capita consumption multiplied by 18 million population. The live weight consumption of an individual species equal to production (IV) plus import (V) minus export (VI). VIII: Equal to total consumption (V) divided by 18 million population. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 19 FIGURE 2.6: TREND IN SEAFOOD SUPPLY AND UTILIZATION IN KAZAKHSTAN (1993–2013) 81.406 59.628 45.903 22.943 59.628 35.503 3,7 2,5 2,3 2,8 1,7 1,5 2,8 3,8 3,1 2,8 2,5 2,5 3,2 3,1 4,3 5,3 4,0 5,2 4,8 4,9 4,8 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Net import (import minus export) Food fish supply from domestic sources (production plus stock depletion minus non-food uses) (live weight; tonne) Per capita fish consumption (live weight; kg) Total fish consumption (live weight; tonne) Data source: FAO Food Balance Sheets of fish and fishery products, 1961–2013, published through FishStatJ (accessed November 2017), www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/software/fishstatj/en. In summary, intake was nearly twice as high as the world average, yet the fish share in its animal ി Kazakhstan is comparatively better endowed protein intake appears to be three times with inland water bodies. It is the largest lower than the world average. Low-income landlocked country accounting for 2% of populations eat even less fish. the world’s total land area and 5.1% of the world’s total surface area of inland water ി Per capita fish consumption appears to be bodies. increasing since the late 1990s, supported by the increasing import volume of seafood. ി Kazakhstan’s total population is expected to Estimates of per capita fish consumption grow from 18.3  million in 2018 to 21 million show a wide variation depending on the by 2030. In recent years, GDP in Kazakhstan statistical sources. Official FAO and national has performed better than the world average. statistics could be underestimated due to ി Food security has not been a major issue in illegal and unreported catches. the country, yet adult obesity appears to be ി According to the FAO statistics, imports more serious in Kazakhstan than the world accounted for nearly 70% of Kazakhstan’s average. domestic food fish supply in 2013, whereas ി Kazakhstan’s per capita animal protein only 30% was from domestic production. 20 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS 3. Status and Trends of Fisheries and Aquaculture Development Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 3. Status and Trends of Fisheries and Aquaculture Development 3.1 Fish Production Table 3.1 illustrates the main fish species found in Kazakhstan waters and markets. Common carp accounts for over half of the total production, followed by pikeperch/zander and roach. TABLE 3.1: FISH CURRENTLY DOMINATING WATERS AND LOCAL FRESH MARKETS IN KAZAKHSTAN (NOT TO SCALE) Pike Snakehead (Esox lucius) (Channa argus) Pikeperch or Tench Zander (Sander (Tinca tinca) lucioperca) Rainbow Trout Perch (Oncorhynchus (Perca fluviatilis) mykiss) Wels or Whitefish Sommes (Coregonus (Silurus glanis) lavaretus) Common Asp Carp (Leuciscus (Cyprinus aspius) carpio) Caras or Gibel Freshwater Carp Bream (Carassius spp.) (Abramis brama) Sturgeon Roach (Huso and (Rutilus rutilus) Acipenser spp.) 22 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS According to FAO statistics, Kazakhstan’s total production expansion from 1,878 tons to 6,933 seafood production (including aquaculture and tons. As the country’s aquaculture production capture fisheries) declined significantly from doubled from 810 tons in 2000 to 1,600 tons in 85,000 tons to 26,106 tons between 1988 and 2018, the share of aquaculture in total fishery 1998, the decline occurring in both aquaculture production increased from 2.2% to 4.8%. Table and capture fisheries (Figure 3.1). Total fishery 3.2 shows the production by species groups and production rebounded to 51,473  tons in 2002 their attribution according to capture or culture. but declined again to 33,600 tons in 2018, which reflected mostly the downward trend of Total fishery production in 2019 was unevenly capture fisheries production while the change distributed among Kazakhstan’s 14 regions in production from aquaculture remained (Table B1, Annex B), dominated by relatively marginal. The FAO numbers mirror more recent large fisheries in Turkistan (19.9% of total national statistics, showing that Kazakhstan’s production) and Kyzylorda (14% of total total fishery production increased from 43,213 production) in the south, East Kazakhstan tons in 2016 to 52,572 tons in 2019. Growth was (16.1% of total production) and Almaty (11.5% of attributed to an increase in capture production total production) in the east, and Atyrau (24.8% from 41,335 tons to 45,645 tons and aquaculture of total production) in the west. FIGURE 3.1: TRENDS IN AQUACULTURE AND FISHERIES PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN (1988–2018) 100.000 1988; 85.006 90.000 80.000 70.000 2008; 51.473 60.000 tonnes 1998;26.106 2018; 33.600 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Capture (Kazakhstan) Aquaculture (Kazakhstan) Total (Kazakhstan) Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 23 TABLE 3.2: LATEST AVAILABLE FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION STATISTICS IN KAZAKHSTAN Year 2018 Year 2019 Capture Culture Total fishery Capture Culture Total fishery Species group Share Aqua- Share Aqua- of all culture of all culture tons tons tons tons tons tons species share species share (%) (%) (%) (%) All species 37,283 5,653 42,936 100.0 13.2 45,645 6,933 52,578 100.0 13.2 Carps 19,710 3,464 23,174 54.0 14.9 24,291 4,001 22,292 55.0 13.8 (cyprinids) Perch/pike/ 6,647 49 6,696 15.6 0.7 7924 1,542 9,472 18.0 16.3 pikeperch Roach 4,229 63 4,351 10.1 1.4 5,744 62 5,805 11.0 1.1 Salmonids 104 823 927 2.2 88.8 95 1,007 1,102 2.1 91.4 Trout/salmon 568 568 1.3 100.0 786 786 1.5 100.0 Whitefish 104 254 358 0.8 70.9 95 221 316 0.6 70.0 Sturgeons 1 650 652 1.5 99.8 1 179 180 0.3 99.4 Others 6,533 603 7,136 16.6 8.4 6,989 137 7,126 13.6 1.9 Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. Capture fisheries Kazakhstan is the second largest fishing brama), roaches (Rutilus spp.) and crucian country in Central Asia (Table B2, Annex B). carp (Carassius carassius), accounted for 73% Kazakhstan’s capture fisheries production of captures (Figure 3.3). Other major species declined from 36,620 tons in 2000 to 32,000 include pikeperch (Sander lucioperca; 16%), tons in 2018 (Figure 3.2). In 2018, carp Northern pike (Esox lucius; 2.5%), and European species, including freshwater bream (Abramis perch (Perca fluviatilis; 2.2%). 24 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS FIGURE 3.2: KAZAKHSTAN CAPTURE FISHERIES PRODUCTION GROWTH FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE, 2008–2018 20 Bubble size: population 15 Anual growth rate of capture fisheries production 10 from 2000 to 2018 (%) 5 0 -5 Kazakhstan, - 10 32 000 tonnes -0,75 percent - 15 - 20 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000 1 000 000 10 000 000 100 000 000 Capture fisheries production in 2018 (tonnes) African countries Countries in the Americas Asian countries European countries Oceania countries Data source: FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. Global capture fisheries production 1950–2018 (FishStatJ). March 2020. FIGURE 3.3: TOP 10 SPECIES ITEMS IN CAPTURE FISHERIES PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 BY VOLUME 1. Freshwater bream 12.990 2. Pike-perch 5.130 2,2% 3,5% 3,9% 2,5% 3. Roaches nei 2.610 3,5% 4. Cyprinids nei 2.530 40,6% 5,5% 5. Caspian roach 1.980 6,2% tonnes 6. Crucian carp 1.760 7. Asp 1.120 7,9% 8. Wels (=Som) catfish 1.120 9. Northern pike 810 8,2% 10. European perch 710 Other species 1.240 16,0% Data source: FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. Global capture fisheries production 1950–2018 (FishStatJ). March 2020. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 25 Aquaculture and water resources, Kazakhstan’s aquaculture In 2018, Kazakhstan was the third largest production in 2018 (1,600  tons) was only 3% aquaculture country in Central Asia, but its of Uzbekistan’s (57,384 tons). Kazakhstan aquaculture production was much lower than produces only 0.0032% of the world’s inland the first two (that is, Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz aquaculture while controlling 2.03% of the Republic) in terms of both tons (Table B3, Annex world’s total land area, 5.14% of the total B) and growth rate between 2000 and 2018 surface area of inland water bodies, and 0.2% of (Figure 3.4). Even with much more abundant land the total renewable water resources. FIGURE 3.4: AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION GROWTH RATE IN KAZAKHSTAN FROM A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE, 2000–2018 Status and trend of aquaculture growth in Kazakhstan from a global and regional perspective (2000-2018) 40 Bubble size: population Annual growth rate of aquaculture production 30 from 2000 to 2018 (%) 20 10 0 - 10 Kazakhstan, 1 600 tons % - 20 1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000 1 000 000 10 000 000 100 000 000 Aquaculture production in 2018 (tons) African countries Countries in the Americas Asian countries European countries Oceania countries Data source: FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. Global aquaculture production 1950–2018 (FishStatJ). March 2020. Kazakhstan’s 1,600-ton aquaculture production rutilus). Trout (primarily rainbow trout) were in 2018 ($7.4 million farm gate value) was the second largest species group in terms of contributed by seven species (Figure 3.5 and both volume (290 tons) and value ($1.3 million). Figure 3.6). Carps were the largest species The other two minority species were European group by volume accounting for 42% of the perch (60 tons; $50,000) and Northern pike total production tonnage, including four carp (20 tons; $14,000). The $5.7 million of sturgeon species: common carp (Cyprinus carpio), production makes it the largest species group crucian carp (Carassius carassius), grass carp by value, accounting for 76% of the total (Ctenopharyngodon idellus), and roach (Rutilus production value. 26 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS FIGURE 3.5: AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 BY VOLUME 1. Sturgeons nei 560 2. Trouts nei 290 3,8% 1,3% 4,4% 6,3% 3. Common carp 250 35,0% 15,6% tonnes 4. Crucian carp 250 5. Grass carp (=White amur) 100 6. Roach 70 7. European perch 60 8. Northern pike 20 15,6% 18,1% Data source: FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. Global aquaculture production 1950–2018 (FishStatJ). March 2020. FIGURE 3.6: AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 BY VALUE 1. Sturgeons nei 5.693 2. Trouts nei 1.285 0,7% 2,1% 0,7% 2,5% 0,2% 3. Crucian carp 189 0,1% 4. Common carp 154 thousands USD 17,3% 76,5% 5. Grass carp (=White amur) 54 6. European perch 50 7. Roach 14 8. Northern pike 7 Data source: FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. Global aquaculture production 1950–2018 (FishStatJ). March 2020. Aquaculture feed and seed The current prices of local trout feed are KZT Feed 399/kg ($0.95/kg) for 40% crude protein (CP) feed, KZT 437/kg ($1.04/kg) for 45% CP feed, Kazakhstan’s demand for formulated aquafeed and KZT 500/kg ($1.19/kg) for 50% CP feed. is primarily for trout and sturgeon farming. The prices of sturgeon feed are similar. The Aquaculture in Kazakhstan used to rely on government currently provides subsidies up imported feed, but local feed producers have to 30% of feed cost for sturgeons, salmonids, gradually increased their market share. In 2018, and carps (including respective hybrids) and five feed manufacturers in Kazakhstan had plans to extend them to other species. For each 30,000 tons of design capacity for aquafeed kilogram of fish feed, the subsidy amounts production, whereas the actual production was would not exceed (a) KZT 285 for sturgeons only 2,000 tons. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 27 and Arapaima gigas (an Amazon species that ി $23 million in 2018 ($14 million capture and some fish farmers in Kazakhstan are interested $7.9 million aquaculture) in introducing in Kazakhstan); (b) KZT 270 for ി $28 million in 2019 ($18 million capture and salmonids; (c) KZT 228 for crustaceans (for $9.2 million aquaculture). example, shrimps); (d) KZT 210 for several introduced species including catfishes, tilapias, Employment and barramundi (Lates calcarifer); and (e) KZT Timirkhanov et al. (2010)6 reported the Fisheries 105 for carp species. Committee of Kazakhstan statistics showing that While the aquafeed manufacturing capacity the number of people employed in Kazakhstan’s may not be a constraint in the near future, fisheries sector declined from around 60,000 there has been a concern over the quality of in the 1980s (before independence) to 13,200 locally manufactured feed. In addition, as major in 2002 and rebounded back to 17,300 in aquafeed manufacturers are located in Almaty, 2006. These numbers are high compared to feed supply may become a bottleneck for the estimation by the Agency of the Republic aquaculture expansion in other regions. of Kazakhstan on Statistics, in which fisheries and aquaculture in Kazakhstan employed only Seed 2,349 people in 2002, with an average monthly Most of the 21 hatcheries in Kazakhstan produce wage of KZT 50,233 (around $418). More larvae or fingerlings of carps, whitefish, or recent data from the Statistics Agency indicate sturgeons for restocking. Trout farms usually use that employment in Kazakhstan’s fisheries and imported eyed eggs to produce fingerlings for aquaculture sectors was: their own use. According to the official statistics, ി 7,200 people in 2017 (6.12 persons/ton; the following are some examples of hatchery average $1,391 annual wage) production: (a) an African catfish hatchery in Aktobe with a design capacity of producing 7.5 ി 6,000 people in 2018 (7.16 persons/ton; million fingerlings a year, (b) a crawfish hatchery average $1,736 annual wage) in Almaty with a design capacity of producing ി 5,500 people in 2019 (9.56 persons/ton; 3.5 million larvae a year, and (c) a whitefish average $2,954 annual wage). hatchery in North Kazakhstan with a design Fish processing is usually the largest capacity of producing 20 million larvae a year. job generator along the fish value chain. Unfortunately, quantitative information on 3.2. Contribution of Fish to the employment in fish processing and other Kazakhstan Economy auxiliary industries on the fish value chain in Kazakhstan is not readily available. According to the national statistics from the Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan Trade on Statistics, the value of the fisheries While the share of aquatic products in and aquaculture sector (including capture Kazakhstan’s total commodity import value production, aquaculture production, and nearly doubled from 0.14% to 0.22% between service) was: 2005 and 2017, the share of fish and seafood in ി $21 million in 2017 ($15 million capture and its total commodity export value declined from $5.7 million aquaculture) 0.19% to 0.12% (Figure 3.7). 6 Timirkhanov S. et al. 2010. “Fisheries and aquaculture in the Republic of Kazakhstan: a Review.” FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Circular, Series number: 2070-6065 (https://www.fao.org/publications/card/en/c/78cf6e7f-b63f-5473-bee7-35f19f7f516a/). 28 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS FIGURE 3.7: CONTRIBUTION OF AQUATIC PRODUCTS TO KAZAKHSTAN’S INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY TRADE Kazakhstan: aquatic products in total commodity trade 0.30 0.28 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.24 0.19 0.20 0.19 0.18 0.17 0.22 0.14 0.15 0.20 0.17 0.17 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.05 0.09 0.10 - 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Share of aquatic product in import value of all commodities (%) Share of aquatic product in export value of all commodities (%) Data source: UN Comtrade (2020). International trade statistics from the UN three-fourths of imports (Table C1, Annex C). Comtrade Database were used to examine The import totaled $96.307 million (Figure Kazakhstan’s international trade of fish and 3.8 and Table C1, Annex C). Finfish8 products fishery products (Annex C). Data reported by accounted for 87.77% of the total import value, Kazakhstan importers (that is, import data) are followed by shellfish products (8.39%), seaweed used as primary data and are supplemented products (2.68%), and non-food products with data reported by exporters to Kazakhstan (1.16%). (that is, export data). Data constructed as such may not be the same as those from different Frozen Atlantic salmon was the largest item in sources and/or based on import or export data terms of value (Figure 3.8) representing $22 only.7 million accounting for nearly one-fourth of the total import value, whereas frozen herring was Import the largest item in terms of volume (Figure 3.9) In 2018, Kazakhstan imported 45,055 tons of representing nearly 11,000 tons, accounting for fish and fishery products from 42  countries/ one-fourth of the import volume. Other marine territories. The Russian Federation and Norway pelagic fishes (such as sardines and mackerels) were the largest suppliers accounting for over are also major fish imports in Kazakhstan. 7 For example, in UN Comtrade, the export data reported by Kazakhstan indicate that Kazakhstan exported 7,406 tons of frozen fish fillets nei (HS030489 containing mostly pikeperch fillets) in 2018, whereas the import data reported by its trade partners indicate that other countries imported 10,399 tons of HS030489 from Kazakhstan. These import data are used in the analysis. 8 A finfish is a fish with fins, as opposed to shellfish. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 29 FIGURE 3.8: TOP 10 IMPORTS OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS, 2018 BY VALUE Product composition of Kazakhstan’s import of fish and fishery products, 2018 (US$, thousand) Salmon, frozen Prepared or preserved fish (excl. Caviar) Herrings, frozen Mackerel, frozen Livers, roes, milt, frozen Shrimps and prawns, frozen (excl cold-water species) Alaska Pollock, frozen Caviar substitutes Sardines, sardinella, brisling or sprats, frozen Trout, frozen 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Data source: FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. Global aquaculture production 1950–2018 (FishStatJ). March 2020. FIGURE 3.9: TOP FIVE IMPORTS OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS, 2018 BY VOLUME Product composition of Kazakhstan’s import of fish and fishery products, 2018 12.000 25 10.000 20 8.000 15 6.000 10 4.000 5 2.000 0 0 Herrings, frozen Mackerel, frozen Atlantic and Danube Prepared or preserved Sardines, sardinella, salmon, frozen fish (excl. caviar) brisling or sprats, frozen Volume (tons) Tons Volume (tons) Share of the total (%) Data source: FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. Global aquaculture production 1950–2018 (FishStatJ). March 2020. The $54.987 million (30,962 tons) of frozen half was contributed by relatively low-value (whole) fish products accounted for 57.1% products, such as herrings, mackerel, sardines, of the total import value. Around half of this and Alaska Pollock. The $16.839 million commodity group were relatively high-value (7,749 tons) prepared/preserved fish products products, such as frozen Atlantic/Danube accounted for 19% of the total import value. salmon, Pacific salmon, and trout. The other Five products in this group are among the top 30 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS 20 largest import products. Caviar substitutes (Table C16, Annex C). are relatively high-value products, whereas the Caviar substitute was the third largest item other four are generally low-value products. accounting for 7% of export value, with Russia Export absorbing nearly the entire export of this item (Table C16, Annex C). In 2018, Kazakhstan exported 35,087 tons of fish and fishery products for a value of $116 Kazakhstan exported $84,000 of live fish million (Table C15 and Table C16, Annex C). products in 2018, including (mostly carp) Europe was the largest market accounting for sent to Azerbaijan and Russia and ornamental 75% of total export volume and 85% of the total freshwater fish exported to Russia. value. Asia and Northern America accounted for, Kazakhstan exported $12.428 million worth of respectively, 23% and 1.3% of the total export frozen fish which accounted for 11.14% of its volume (or 11% and 3.6% in terms of value, total fish and fishery products export value in respectively). Kazakhstan had no export of fish 2018. Seven products in this group were among and fishery products to Africa, Latin America, the top 20 fish export products, including $9.381 the Caribbean, or Oceania. million of mixed frozen fish, primarily to China Russia and China were the largest markets in and Russia; $739,000 of carp, mostly to China, terms of volume, whereas Poland, Germany, Uzbekistan, Russia, and Georgia; $553,000 of Russia, and the Netherlands were the largest snakeheads to Russia and Turkey among others; markets in terms of value. Exports to China $364,000 of Salmonidae (trout and salmon) to and Russia were primarily low-value products the Kyrgyz Republic, China, and Georgia; and (average prices of $1.67/kg and $1.36/kg, $261,000 of frozen livers/roes/milt to Romania respectively), whereas the prices of export to and Russia. the three European markets (Poland, Germany, and the Netherlands) were above $7/kg. FIGURE 3.10: TOP FIVE EXPORTS OF FISH AND Kazakhstan’s fish and seafood export in 2018 FISHERY PRODUCTS, 2018 BY VALUE (Figure 3.10) comprised finfish products accounting for 95.23% of the total export Product composition of Kazakhstan’s export of fish and fishery products, 2018 (US$, thousands) value, followed by non-food products (3.84%), shellfish products (0.5%), and seaweed 75262,0 Fish fillets, frozen products (0.43%). Frozen fish fillets accounted 9381,0 Fish, frozen for two-thirds of the export value and 30% of the volume. Frozen items comprised mostly frozen 8164,0 Caviar substitutes pikeperch fillets at an average price of $7.24/ Fish waste unfit for human consumption kg. The main destinations include Poland,9 Germany, the Netherlands, and Lithuania (Table Prepared or preserved of sardines, sardinella and brisling or sprats C15, Annex C). 12968,0 Others Frozen whole fish accounted for 30% of the export volume and 8.4% of value. The average Data source: FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. price of $0.89/kg indicates that the item is Global aquaculture production 1950–2018 (FishStatJ). comprised mostly of low-value carp species. March 2020. China and Russia were the main destinations 9 In Table 3.3, Poland’s import of HS030489 is measured by UN Comtrade import data reported by Poland, whereas the UN Comtrade export data reported by Kazakhstan indicate only 757 tons ($5.3 million) of HS030489 exported to Poland. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 31 Trade balance Kazakhstan experienced a positive $15 million trade balance in 2018 due to the export of higher- value products such as frozen pikeperch fillets and relatively lower-value imports (Table 3.3.) TABLE 3.3: KAZAKHSTAN TRADE BALANCE OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS, 2018 Product Categories Value ($, thousands) Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) Import 205 products 96,307 45,055 2.14 Export 108 products 111,585 35,087 3.18 Balance 15,278 −9,968 32 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS 4. Assessment of Market Growth Potential Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 4. Assessment of Market Growth Potential 4.1 Methodology and Data for fish. It also does not account for potential market expansion of Kazakhstan’s export Population and income are the two main products through more competitive pricing or factors affecting fish demand. Based on the more efficient marketing strategies. methodology established in the FAO Fisheries Kazakhstan’s national fishery production and Aquaculture Technical Papers 607 — Short- statistics in 2018 (that is, 37,283 tons of capture term projection of global fish demand and supply production + 5,652 aquaculture production = gaps,10 the impacts of population and income 42,935 tons of total fishery production) have growth on fish demand are estimated, and the been used in the following analysis. international market potential for Kazakhstan’s fisheries export is assessed accordingly. The Baseline supply and demand projections of population prospects in countries In 2018, Kazakhstan’s total finfish supply was or territories are from the UN World Population 92,944 tons, including 50,009 tons of finfish Prospects 2019 Revision,11 whereas income supply from import (54%), 37,283 tons from projections are based on the GDP data from the capture fisheries production (40%), and 5,652 WEO Database of the International Monetary tons from aquaculture production (6%). About Fund (IMF).12 half of the total finfish supply (44,328 tons; Market demand in 2018 is treated as the baseline 48%) went to domestic consumption, whereas to estimate the potential market growth from the other half (48,617 tons; 52%) was exported 2018 to 2030 driven by population and income to foreign markets. growth. The total market growth potential is In 2018, Kazakhstan’s total shellfish supply was composed of two components: one is growth 2,141 tons, which came entirely from imports potential in per capita fish demand driven by with no domestic shellfish production from income growth and the other is market demand capture fisheries or aquaculture. Three-quarters growth driven by population growth. Under of the supply went to domestic consumption the assumption of constant fish prices, the (1,613 tons) and the rest, 25% (528 tons) was estimated demand growth driven by income and exported. population growth in a country/territory is used In aggregate, Kazakhstan’s total finfish and to measure the market potential in the country/ shellfish supply (95,085 tons) comprised territory. The potential of Kazakhstan’s fisheries 52,150 tons of import (55%), 37,283 tons of export to the market is estimated accordingly capture fisheries production (39%), and 5,652 based on the assumption that its market share tons of aquaculture production (6%). Around remains unchanged. half of the total finfish and shellfish supply went The estimated market potential does not account to domestic consumption (45,941 tons; 48%), for potential market growth driven by other whereas the other half (49,145 tons; 52%) was factors like increased consumer preference exported. 10 Cai, J., and P. S. Leung. 2017. “Short-Term Projection of Global Fish Demand and Supply Gaps.” FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No. 607. Rome, FAO. www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf. 11 United Nations. 2019. The 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects. The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. https://population.un.org/wpp/. 12 IMF. 2019. “World Economic Outlook Database.” IMF. 34 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS Note on data variability investigation; for example, extremely low export prices of several products to Russia Inconsistencies among these data have posed a and Poland’s import of frozen fish fillets nei challenge to the assessment (Table 4.1). Where (HS030489) from Kazakhstan (reported by relevant, the report has focused on trends Poland’s customs) that were much greater rather than value. This report clearly indicates than Kazakhstan’s export of the product to which sources were used and highlights any Poland (reported by Kazakhstan’s customs major discrepancies. office). ി Kazakhstan’s national production statistics ി According to the FAO statistics, Kazakhstan’s on aquaculture and fisheries are significantly per capita fish consumption in 2013 was 4.8 higher than the values reported by the kg. According to the estimation in this report, government to the FAO statistical database Kazakhstan’s per capita fish consumption in recent years. in 2018 was only 2.51 kg. According to the ി Kazakhstan’s national fish trade statistics national statistics, Kazakhstan’s per capita are significantly lower than the trade fish consumption in 2019 was 14.6 kg. Further statistics from FAO and UN Comtrade. investigation is needed to understand the The report has highlighted several issues extremely high per capita fish consumption on UN Comtrade data that need further reported in the national statistics. TABLE 4.1: COMPARISON OF KAZAKHSTAN’S FISHERIES STATISTICS FROM DIFFERENT SOURCES UN Comtrade (mirror data) Estimated in Data and statistics FAO National estimated in the report the report Production (tons, live weight) Capture fisheries production 2017 31,157 41,320 Aquaculture production 2017 1,563 2,776 Capture fisheries production 2018 32,000 37,283 Aquaculture production 2018 1,600 5,652 Trade (tons, product weight) Import 2017 43,641 27,200 Export 2017 25,175 26,900 Import 2018 34,300 45,055 Export 2018 24,500 35,087 Per capita fish consumption (kg/year) 2019 14.6 2018 2.51 2013 4.8 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 35 The FAO statistics may underestimate 4.2 Domestic Markets Kazakhstan’s actual total fishery production. According to national statistics, Kazakhstan In 2018, Kazakhstan imported 43,231 tons of exported 10,399 tons of frozen fish fillets food finfish and shellfish products,the estimated (mostly miscellaneous freshwater fishes) the live weight equivalent of which is 52,152 tons live weight equivalent of which tends to be (Table 4.2). In 2018, Kazakhstan exported greater than 20,000 tons. In contrast, according 31,860 tons of food finfish and shellfish to the FAO statistics, Kazakhstan’s production products, the estimated live weight equivalent of miscellaneous freshwater fishes in 2018 of which is 49,145 tons. In 2018, the estimated was only 7,850 tons. Indeed, according to apparent finfish and shellfish consumption (live Kazakhstan’s national statistics, Kazakhstan’s weight) in Kazakhstan was 45,941 tons, equal to capture fisheries and aquaculture production its total fishery production of 42,935 tons plus in 2018 was, respectively, 37,283 tons and the 52,152 tons of import (live weight) minus the 5,652 tons, and the 42,935 tons of total fishery 49,145 tons of export (live weight). As shown production was around 9,000 tons higher than in Table 4.2, the estimated per capita apparent the FAO statistics (33,600 tons). finfish and shellfish consumption (live weight) is 2.51 kg, equal to 45,941 total fish consumption divided by its population in 2018 (18.32 million). TABLE 4.2: ESTIMATION OF KAZAKHSTAN’S APPARENT FISH CONSUMPTION, 2018 Domestic Total consumption produc- Import Export (live weight) tion Product Live Product Con- Live Product Con- Live Per Total weight weight version weight weight version weight capita (tons) (tons) (tons) factor (tons) (tons) factor (tons) (kg) Finfish and 42,935 43,231 1.21 52,150 31,860 1.54 49,145 45,941 2.51 shellfish Finfish 42,935 41,843 1.20 50,009 31,604 1.54 48,617 44,328 2.42 Fish, live (HS0301) 20 1.00 20 30 1.00 30 Fish, fresh/chilled 460 1.05 484 1,025 1.00 1,025 (HS0302) Fish, frozen whole 30,962 1.03 31,884 13,945 1.11 15,469 (HS0303) Fish, fillet and other 1,682 2.10 3,528 11,427 2.21 25,221 meat (HS0304) Fish, dried/salted/ 971 1.82 1,770 2,050 2.40 4,920 smoked (HS0305) Fish, prepared/ preserved 7,749 1.59 12,324 3,128 0.62 1,952 (HS1604) 13 Fish and fishery products minus ornamental fishes, live fishes used as seed, fish oils, seaweed products, and non-food products. 36 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE 4.2 Domestic Total consumption produc- Import Export (live weight) tion Product Live Product Con- Live Product Con- Live Per Total weight weight version weight weight version weight capita (tons) (tons) (tons) factor (tons) (tons) factor (tons) (kg) Shellfish 0 1,387 1.54 2,141 256 2.06 528 1,613 0.09 Crustaceans 5,66 1.26 713 32 1.73 55 (HS0306) Mollusks 363 1.72 625 3 1.36 5 (HS0307) Aquatic invertebrates nei 4 1.00 4 60 1.00 60 (HS0308) Prepared/ preserved shellfish 454 1.76 798 161 2.53 408 (HS1605) Note: The following items were excluded in the calculation of live weight: ornamental fishes, live trout used as seed, and fish oils. The conversion factor of each HS level 4 product group is the average of the top five HS level 6 products in this group with the largest export or import volume14. The results of fish, shellfish, and fish and seafood are from aggregation. Live weight = product weight × conversion factor. Population it is not unlikely that Kazakhstan’s per capita GDP would reach $13,186 (the 2024 level according According to the UN World Population Prospects to the IMF’s pre-pandemic projection15) in 2030. (United Nations 2019), the population in Kazakhstan is expected to increase from 18.32 Central Asia’s income elasticity of demand for million to 20.64 million between 2018 and 2030 freshwater and diadromous fish is 0.3399,16 (a total increase of 2.32 million or 12.7%). which means that given other factors remaining unchanged (for example, constant fish prices), a Income 1% increase in per capita GDP would tend to drive According to the IMF WEO projection published up the demand for freshwater and diadromous in October 2019 (IMF 2019), per capita GDP in fishes by 0.3399%. Central Asia’s income Kazakhstan is expected to increase from $9,440 elasticity of crustacean demand (0.8236) will to $13,186 between 2018 and 2024 with a total be used as a proxy of that for shellfish demand. increase of $3,746 or 39.7%. Central Asia has a relatively low-income The current Coronavirus Disease 2019 elasticity of fish and seafood demand than (COVID-19) pandemic and oil crises would neighboring regions, such as Eastern Europe tend to slow down Kazakhstan’s economy (0.4755 for freshwater and diadromous fishes significantly. Yet, with post-pandemic recovery, and 1.0562 for crustaceans).17 14 European Market Observatory for Fisheries and Aquaculture Products. 2019. 15 IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database (October 2019). 16 Cai, J., and P. S. Leung. 2017. “Short-Term Projection of Global Fish Demand and Supply Gaps.” FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No. 607. Rome, FAO. www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf. 17 See Table 3 in Cai, J., and P. S. Leung. 2017. “Short-Term Projection of Global Fish Demand and Supply Gaps.” FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper No. 607. Rome, FAO. www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 37 Other demand-side factors fish/seafood consumption of the neighboring and related regions of Kazakhstan in 2013, In addition to population and income, other that is, 7.246 kg of finfish and 0.483 kg of factors (for example, urbanization and increased shellfish (Table 4.3) as a higher benchmark to consumer preference for healthy food) could examine the domestic market potential should drive up fish demand in the long run. This Kazakhstan’s per capita fish/seafood demand report does not model the specific impacts of increase beyond its normal trajectory driven by these factors but uses the average per capita income growth. TABLE 4.3: PER CAPITA FISH CONSUMPTION IN REGIONS SIMILAR TO KAZAKHSTAN, 2013 Regions Finfish (kg) Shellfish (kg) Central Asia 2.095 0.039 Southern Asia 6.837 0.388 Western Asia 7.415 0.558 Eastern Europe 15.611 1.404 Landlocked developing countries 4.270 0.024 Average 7.246 0.483 Data source: FAO (www.fao.org/fishery/statistics/software/fishstatj/en). To estimate the midterm growth of domestic demand from 2.51  kg to 2.83 kg. Together market demand, three scenarios are presented with the expected population growth, the total (Table 4.4): demand would tend to increase by 11,605 tons ി Scenario I: Population growth only (26%) for finfish, 780 tons (48%) for shellfish, and 12,385 tons (27%) for finfish and shellfish Given its per capita consumption in 2018 as a whole. (2.51 kg), the increase of Kazakhstan’s total population from 18.32  million in 2018 to 20.64 ി Scenario III: Population growth + higher million in 2030 would tend to drive up its total benchmark per capita demand finfish and shellfish demand by 5,816 tons (13% If Kazakhstan’s per capita finfish and shellfish growth), including 5,612 tons of finfish and 204 demand in 2030 can be increased to 7.25 kg and tons of shellfish. 0.48 kg, respectively (the average of Central ി Scenario II: Population growth + income Asia, Southern Asia, Western Asia, Eastern growth Europe, and landlocked developing countries in The increase of its per capita GDP from $9,440 2013), then its domestic demand for finfish and (the 2018 baseline) to $13,186 (the IMF’s pre- shellfish would tend to increase to 113,562 tons COVID-19 projection for 2024) would tend to in 2030 (247% higher than the 2018 baseline), drive up Kazakhstan’s per capita finfish demand including 105,215 tons of finfish (237% higher from 2.42 kg to 2.71 kg, shellfish demand from than the 2018 baseline) and 8,347 tons of 0.09 kg to 0.12 kg, and finfish and shellfish shellfish (517% higher than the baseline). 38 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE 4.4: MIDTERM PROJECTION OF THE DOMESTIC MARKET POTENTIAL FOR FINFISH AND SHELLFISH, 2018–2030 Finfish and Projection of domestic fish and shellfish demand Finfish Shellfish shellfish Baseline (2018) #1 Per capita fish consumption (kg) 2.42 0.09 2.51 #2 Population (UN data in 2018, thousands) 18,320 18,320 18,320 #3 Total demand (equal to #1 × #2, tons) 44,328 1613 45,941 Scenario I (2030): Impact of population growth #4 Per capita fish consumption (baseline in 2018, kg) 2.42 0.09 2.51 #5 Population (UN projection in 2030, thousands) 20,639 20,639 20,639 #6 Total demand (equal to #4 × #5, tons) 49,940 1,817 51,757 #7 Total demand growth from 2018 to 2030 (equal to #6 − #3, tons) 5,612 204 5,816 #8 %age demand growth from 2018 to 2030 (equal to #7 / #3×100, %) 13 13 13 Scenario II (2030): Impact of both population and income growth #9 Per capita fish consumption (driven by per capita GDP growth, kg) 2.71 0.12 2.83 #10 Population (UN projection in 2030, thousands) 20,639 20,639 20,639 #11 Total demand (equal to #9 × #10, tons) 55,933 2,393 58,326 #12 Total demand growth from 2018 to 2030 (equal to #11 − #3, tons) 11,605 780 12,385 #13 % demand growth from 2018 to 2030 (equal to #12 / #3 × 100, %) 26 48 27 Scenario III (2030): Impact of population growth and higher benchmark per capita fish consumption #14 Per capita fish consumption (kg) 7.25 0.48 7.73 #15 Population (UN projection in 2030, thousands) 20,639 20,639 20,639 #16 Total demand (equal to #14 × #15, tons) 149,542 9,960 159,502 #17 Total demand growth from 2018 to 2030 (equal to #16 − #3, tons) 105,215 8,347 113,562 #18 % demand growth from 2018 to 2030 (equal to #17 / #3 × 100, %) 237 517 247 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 39 4.3 Export Markets $12.631 million increase in value (12% growth compared to the baseline in 2018) and 4,466 The estimation of export market potential is tons in volume (13% growth). based on the UN population projections from Kazakhstan exported four live fish products 2018 to 2030 (United Nations 2019) and the IMF to three countries in 2018 with $287,000 WEO GDP projection from 2018 to 2024.18. The total export value (Table D7, Annex D). The validity of the estimation of market potential estimated overall market growth potential due driven by income growth depends on whether to the population growth is $2,000 (2.4% growth the 2024 level previously projected by the IMF compared to the 2018 baseline), whereas the is a realistic value for the 2030 per capita GDP. A estimated overall market growth potential due detailed review of export markets by segment is to both the population and income growth is available in Annex D. Table 4.5 and this section $9,000 (10.5% growth). summarize the analysis. Kazakhstan exported 13 fresh/chilled fish Kazakhstan exported 108 fish and fishery products to eight countries in 2018 with products to 36 countries or territories in 2018 $571,000 total export value and 1,025 tons with $111.585 million total export value and total export volume (Table D8, Annex D). The 35,087 tons total volume (Table C15 and Table estimated overall market growth potential due to C16, Annex C). The estimated overall market the population growth is close to zero, whereas growth potential due to population growth the estimated overall market growth potential between 2018 and 2030 in the 36 export due to both the population and income growth is markets is negative ($628,000 decline in value $68,000 (11.8% growth) and 109 tons (10.7%). and 130 tons decline in volume), which primarily reflects negative population growth prospects Kazakhstan exported 22 frozen fish products in the country’s major fisheries export markets to 23 countries or territories in 2018 with (for example, Poland, Russia, and Lithuania). $12.428  million total export value and 13,945 The estimated overall market growth potential tons total export volume (Table D9, Annex D). due to both the population and income growth The estimated overall market growth potential is $12.861 million increase in value (12% growth due to the population growth is positive 1.1% in compared to the baseline in 2018) and 4,553 value ($137,000 increase) and negative 0.2% in tons in volume (13% growth). volume (27 tons decline), whereas the estimated overall market growth potential due to both the Kazakhstan exported 84 different categories of population and income growth is around positive finfish products to 36 countries or territories 20% ($3.004 million in value and 2,575 tons in in 2018 with $106.266 million total export volume) (Table 4.6). value and 31,864 tons total volume (Tables D1–D6, Annex D). The estimated overall market Kazakhstan exported 25 different fillet and other growth potential due to the population growth fish meat products to 28 countries or territories is negative ($647,000 decline in value and 143 in 2018 with $78.34  million total export value tons decline in volume), which primarily reflects and 11,427 tons total export volume (Table D10, negative population growth prospects in the Annex D). The estimated overall market growth country’s major fisheries export markets (for potential due to the population growth is around example, Poland, Russia, and Lithuania). The negative 1% ($752,000 decline in value and 126 estimated overall market growth potential due tons decline in volume), whereas the estimated to both the population and income growth is overall market growth potential due to both 18 IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database (October 2019). 40 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS the population and income growth is around Kazakhstan exported two seaweed products positive 10% ($8.169  million in value and 1,198 to two countries or territories in 2018 with tons in volume). $478,000 total export value and 92 tons total export volume (Table D14, Annex D). The Kazakhstan exported 12 dried/salted/smoked/ estimated overall market growth potential due offal fish products to 10 countries or territories to the population growth is around negative in 2018 with $3.011  million total export value 1.5% ($7,000 decline in value and 1 ton decline in and 2,050 tons total export volume (Table D11, volume), whereas the estimated overall market Annex D). The estimated overall market growth growth potential due to both the population and potential due to the population growth is income growth is around positive 20% ($90,000 around negative 3% ($75,000 decline in value in value and 19 tons in volume). and 63 tons decline in volume), whereas the estimated overall market growth potential due Kazakhstan exported three non-food fisheries to both the population and income growth is products to five countries or territories in 2018 around positive 9% ($262,000 in value and 194 with $4.288 million total export value and 2,875 tons in volume). tons total export volume (Table D15, Annex D). Most of the export could be fish waste from Kazakhstan exported eight prepared/preserved fish processing plants; the demand for which fish products to eight countries or territories tends to be affected primarily by factors other in 2018 with $11.805  million total export value than population and income. Thus, the market and 3,128 tons total export volume (Table potential of this product group is not estimated D12, Annex D). The estimated overall market here and is assumed to be zero when calculating growth potential due to the population growth is the aggregate market potential for all fish and around positive 1% ($33,000 increase in value fishery products. and 40 tons increase in volume), whereas the estimated overall market growth potential due to both the population and income growth is 4.4 Summary around positive 10% ($1.109 million in value and According to the IMF’s pre-COVID-19 projection 329 tons in volume) (Table 4.5). published in October 2019,19 Kazakhstan’s per Kazakhstan exported 17 shellfish products capita GDP is expected to grow 40% between (including crustacean products, mollusks 2018 and 2024. In light of the negative impact products, other aquatic invertebrate products, of the current COVID-19 pandemic on economic and prepared/preserved crustaceans/mollusks/ growth, the 40% growth may not be realized other aquatic invertebrate products) to six in the original time frame but could occur in countries or territories in 2018 with $554,000 a longer horizon (that is, between 2018 and total export value and 256 tons total export 2030). Given the 40% income growth, per volume (Table D13, Annex D). The estimated capita fish demand tends to increase by 12% overall market growth potential due to the between 2018 and 2030, which, together with population growth is around positive 5% the 13% growth in Kazakhstan’s population, ($26,000 increase in value and 15 tons increase would lead to 27% of overall growth in domestic in volume), whereas the estimated overall market fish demand driven by population and income growth potential due to both the population and growth. The growth potential in export markets income growth is around positive 25% ($141,000 driven by income and population growth can in value and 68 tons in volume). be estimated based on the same methodology. 19 IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) Database (October 2019). CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 41 The results are summarized as follows: pike/pikeperch (6,267 tons), among others (Table 4.6). ി The overall domestic and export market growth potential is 71,849 tons, including ി The 13% overall export market growth is only 65,043 tons of domestic market growth half of the 27% growth in the domestic market. potential and 6,446 tons of export market The relatively low export market growth growth potential (Table 4.6). potential reflects the lack of population growth and the relatively low income-driven ി The domestic and export market growth growth in per capita demand in most export potential for carps is the largest (30,379 tons), markets of fish and seafood products from followed by roach (6,422 tons) and perch/ Kazakhstan (Table 4.7). TABLE 4.5: EXPORT MARKET STATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS FROM KAZAKHSTAN, 2018–2030 Kazakhstan’s export to the world market Growth potential between 2018 Baseline in 2018 and 2030 Both population Fish and fishery Number of Value Population only and income products products growth Volume Price (tons) ($/kg) Value Value $, Share Effec- ($, Volume ($, Volume Actual thou- of total tive thou- (tons) thou- (tons) sands (%) sands) sands) Fish and fishery 108 4.42 111,585 100.00 35,087 3.18 −628 −130 12,861 4,553 products Finfish products 84 3.68 106,266 95.23 31,864 3.33 −647 −143 12,631 4,466 Fish, live 4 3.32 84 0.07 287 0.29 2 36 9 60 Fish, fresh/chilled 13 6.64 571 0.51 1,025 0.56 3 −3 68 109 Fish, frozen whole 22 3.03 12,428 11.14 13,945 0.89 137 −27 3,004 2,575 Fish, fillet and other meat 25 1.25 78,340 70.21 11,427 6.86 −752 −126 8,169 1,198 Fish, dried/salted/ 12 3.38 3,011 2.70 2,050 1.47 −75 −63 262 194 smoked/offal Fish, prepared/preserved, including caviar and 8 2.63 11,805 10.58 3,128 3.77 33 40 1,109 329 caviar substitutes from fish eggs Fish oils (HS1504) 2 1.38 26 0.02 3 9.76 5 0.490 11 1 Shellfish products 17 2.73 554 0.50 256 2.16 26 15 141 68 Seaweed and seaweed 2 1.01 478 0.43 92 5.18 -7 -1 90 19 products Non-food products 3 1.57 4,288 3.84 2,875 1.49 - - - - Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. 42 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE 4.6: DOMESTIC AND EXPORT MARKET GROWTH POTENTIAL DRIVEN BY INCOME AND POPULATION GROWTH BETWEEN 2018 AND 2030 I II III IV V VI VII Domestic market (tons, live weight) Export market (tons, live weight) Total domestic and foreign Species (ranked by market growth baseline consumption) Growth potential Growth potential potential Baseline in between 2018 and Baseline in between 2018 and between 2018 2018 2030 2018 2030 and 2030 (tons, % Tons % Tons live weight) All species 241,269 27 65,043 49,145 13 6,446 71,489 Carps 104,665 27 28,216 10,651 20 2,163 30,379 Roach 22,340 27 6,023 2,062 19 398 6,421 Perch/pike/pikeperch 14,684 27 3,959 23,086 10 2,309 6,267 Catfish 6,347 27 1,711 283 12 34 1,745 Salmon 6,144 27 1,656 0 1,656 Whitefish 846 27 228 0 228 Sturgeons 657 27 177 0 177 Rainbow trout 618 27 167 336 7 25 192 Data source: Estimate based on research for this report. TABLE 4.7: GROWTH POTENTIAL IN INDIVIDUAL EXPORT MARKETS BETWEEN 2018 AND 2030 DRIVEN BY INCOME AND POPULATION GROWTH I II III IV V VI VII VIII Growth potential between Baseline in 2018 2018 and 2030 (%) Export market (ranked by Volume (product Per market value) Value Popu- Total weight) Price ($/ capita lation demand $, thou- Share of Share of kg) demand Tons growth growth sands total (%) total (%) growth 1. Poland 21,132 18.94 2,737 7.80 7.72 14.86 −2.58 11.90 2. Germany 17,516 15.70 2,383 6.79 7.35 8.16 0.01 8.17 3. Russian Federation 17,268 15.48 12,656 36.07 1.36 9.27 −1.64 7.48 4. Netherlands 14,673 13.15 2,086 5.95 7.03 8.46 2.29 10.95 5. Lithuania 10,197 9.14 1,532 4.36 6.66 17.22 −11.30 3.97 6. China 9,157 8.21 5,498 15.67 1.67 34.60 2.57 38.06 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 43 TABLE 4.7 I II III IV V VI VII VIII Growth potential between Baseline in 2018 2018 and 2030 (%) Export market (ranked by Volume (product Per market value) Value Popu- Total weight) Price ($/ capita lation demand $, thou- Share of Share of kg) demand Tons growth growth sands total (%) total (%) growth 7. Austria 6,299 5.65 709 2.02 8.88 8.13 3.20 11.58 8. United States of America 3,018 2.70 335 0.95 9.02 9.69 6.89 17.25 9. Czechia 2,788 2.50 385 1.10 7.24 13.33 0.74 14.17 10. Kyrgyz Republic 1,516 1.36 879 2.50 1.73 7.19 18.12 26.61 11. Switzerland 1,295 1.16 163 0.46 7.94 9.76 7.74 18.25 12. Ukraine 1,225 1.10 1,893 5.39 0.65 25.86 −7.60 16.29 13. Canada 994 0.89 120 0.34 8.26 10.88 10.14 22.12 14. Belarus 807 0.72 1,248 3.56 0.65 6.21 −1.99 4.10 15. Georgia 775 0.69 700 1.99 1.11 15.19 −3.74 10.89 16. Azerbaijan 467 0.42 436 1.24 1.07 5.39 7.94 13.76 17. France 436 0.39 78 0.22 5.58 6.61 2.62 9.41 18. Uzbekistan 418 0.37 608 1.73 0.69 28.06 15.22 47.55 19. North Macedonia 397 0.36 335 0.95 1.19 14.11 −1.55 12.35 20. Romania 256 0.23 57 0.16 4.50 20.89 −6.15 13.45 Data source: Columns I–V from UN Comtrade. Columns VI–VIII estimated based on research for this report. 44 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS 5. Increasing Supply and Demand Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 5. Increasing Supply and Demand Capture fisheries in Kazakhstan are based on estimated production targets that stagnating mostly due to the prevalence of are proportional to current farming and fishing illegal fishing and inadequate management system output (informed by local industry of fisheries and fishing fleets. The KFDP is experts), disaggregated by species, and that consequently focusing on growing the sector add up to 235,000 tons (Table 5.1). Note that the through aquaculture, expecting to increase official statistics presented in Table 5.1 do not Kazakhstan’s aquaculture production to account for unreported production which could 270,000 tons by 2030. A complete breakdown be many times that of the official statistics. The of the 270,000-ton overall target by species discrepancy does not qualitatively affect the is not available. Thus, the analyses will be analysis and conclusions. TABLE 5.1: TARGETED PRODUCTION IN THE KFDP Target aquaculture production (tons) Species 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Caspian salmon (Salmo trutta 0 0 500 500 1,550 12,600 19,700 26,901 54,101 102,919 caspius) Carps (cyprinids) 12,326 16,023 22,372 28,025 35,043 41,941 48,860 55,907 67,637 79,706 Clarias catfish 2,500 6,197 6,697 7,697 11,197 12,197 13,197 13,864 13,864 18,864 Rainbow trout 922 2,124 2,881 3,303 4,969 9,406 11,599 13,081 13,952 16,629 Whitefish 2,968 3,058 3,467 3,607 3,749 3,901 5,678 7,565 9,012 10,470 Sturgeons (meat) 247 496 583 699 1,068 1,359 1,661 2,076 2,635 3,528 Pikeperch 0 0 0 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,500 1,500 1,500 Barramundi 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,333 1,333 1,333 Tilapia 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Total 19,012 27,949 36,550 44,881 59,626 83,455 102,746 122,277 164,085 235,000 Data source: Preliminary data based on personal communication. According to the analysis, most of the production realization of the production target depends not growth between 2020 and 2030 would be only on the production capacity but also market contributed by Caspian salmon, carps, catfish potential to accommodate the production (Clarias sp.), rainbow trout, and whitefish. The expansion. 46 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS Carps Pikeperch farming in Kazakhstan has been hindered by multiple technical obstacles and Carps (cyprinids) are the largest species group uncertain market conditions caused by their with 28,892 tons of production in 2019, primarily large-scale production from capture fisheries. consumed domestically. While the first-sale They may be farmed extensively as an additional price of wild carp (sazan) is higher than that of species in carp aquaculture in earthen ponds. pikeperch, most carp production in Kazakhstan is Investing in basic research and practical from less desirable species (for example, bream experiments of pikeperch aquaculture would and crucian carp) sold at low prices in domestic lay a foundation for a potential leap forward in and foreign markets. The government has set pikeperch farming. Kazakhstan may learn from a target of approximately 80,000 tons of carp the experiences of pikeperch farming and the aquaculture production in 2030. Yet, the income farming of similar species in other countries, and population growth in domestic and foreign such as pikeperch stock enhancement in the markets could increase the total demand for carp Danube Delta of Romania, the farming of walleye, species by approximately 30,000 tons between also known as yellow pike (Sander vitreus), in 2018 and 2030. There tends to be limited room to the United States of America, and the farming increase carp demand in an environment where of mandarin fish, also known as Chinese perch carp price is already low. However, joint efforts (Siniperca chuatsi), in China. The first-sale price from the public and private sectors could lead to of pikeperch went down from KZT 481/kg in 2019 an increase in carp demand through innovations to KZT 175/kg in 2020 because of the impact of in processing, as well as marketing strategies the COVID-19 pandemic on export. The incident, aimed at fostering carp cuisine culture and perhaps a transitory shock notwithstanding, adding fish to Kazakhstan dietary habits. On the indicates the importance of diversifying supply side, carp production can be increased pikeperch export markets in the long run. by improving the productivity and profitability of the existing extensive farming systems. Semi- Sturgeons and caviar intensive or intensive carp farming systems To protect the endangered species, capturing could be established when efforts in carp market wild sturgeons is forbidden. There are 30 development become effective. sturgeon farms with a total design production capacity of 1,500 tons a year in Kazakhstan. Pikeperch, pike, and perch However, in 2018, only 650 tons of sturgeon The export of pikeperch fillets to European were produced and that declined to 179 tons in countries has been the backbone of the fish 2019, partially due to mass mortality caused by industry in Kazakhstan. Contrary to the lack of a water pollution incident. Sturgeon production demand for carp species, the main constraint in Kazakhstan is primarily for domestic for pikeperch, pike, and perch is insufficient and/ consumption. The income and population growth or unstable supply. The government has set a in Kazakhstan could increase the domestic target of 1,500 tons of pikeperch aquaculture demand for sturgeon by approximately 180 production in 2030, but none for pike or perch. tons per year by 2030, which means the export The planned expansion is insufficient to satisfy the market must be expanded significantly to justify approximately 6,000 tons of domestic and foreign the 3,500 tons of sturgeon production targeted market growth for pikeperch, pike, and perch by the government. Sturgeons were the most between 2018 and 2030 driven by income and expensive fish in Kazakhstan with KZT 4,067/ population growth. In the short term, the supply kg ($9.68/kg) first-sale price in 2020. This shortage could be partially addressed by better reflects a high production cost in Recirculating management of pikeperch/pike/perch fisheries. Aquaculture System (RAS), which is the main CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 47 sturgeon farming system in Kazakhstan, and the income and population growth, the estimated situation has been exacerbated by inappropriate demand for trout production in Kazakhstan would farm design, unreliable equipment, and/or be only 1,200 tons in 2030, which is less than inadequate expertise and experiences in running half of the 3,000 tons of current trout production RASs. Lowering the production cost and thus capacity and only a fraction of the 16,600 tons the first-sale market price for sturgeon is crucial of trout production target in the government’s to increase their demand in both domestic and plan for aquaculture in 2030. Using per capita foreign markets. trout consumption in Russia as a benchmark and considering the conditions in Kazakhstan’s Kazakhstan produced only 0.4 tons of caviar in potential trout export markets (that is, the 2017 despite its 17 tons overall design capacity European Union [EU] and the Eurasian Economic for caviar production. While many sturgeon Community [EAEC/EurAsEC] that includes farms in Kazakhstan are interested in producing Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, caviar, only three farms have current production, Belarus, and Russia), estimates indicate 12,300 and one farm planned to start harvesting caviar tons of potential domestic and export market in 2021. As the situation of sturgeon demand capacity for Kazakhstan’s trout production in lower than supply in the global market tends to 2030. Yet, turning the potential into reality is persist in the near future, sturgeon farming in not automatic and entails lowering the cost Kazakhstan may need to go through a process and improving the quality of trout production in of consolidation before it becomes a mature, Kazakhstan. robust industry. The public sector can help provide good market and sector information Additionally, a lead entity (for example, a large and set guidance and standards to facilitate the trout farm, processing plant, or a functional sustainable development of sturgeon and caviar farmers/processors/traders association) would production. also be crucial to the development of an export-oriented trout industry in Kazakhstan. Trout and salmon Substituting imported salmon products could Trout/salmon production in Kazakhstan primarily create demand for domestic trout production, came from aquaculture, and the production but there is another ambitious 100,000 tons increased from 277 tons in 2016 to 786 tons in of production target for Caspian salmon in 2019. In 2019, 13 rainbow trout farms with nearly 2030. Caspian salmon is not yet an established 3,000 tons of production capacity harvested aquaculture species, and a marketing challenge only a little over 500 tons of fish. In 2020, is whether the fish (a subspecies of brown trout the average farm gate price of rainbow trout Salmo trutta) could be accepted by consumers in Kazakhstan was KZT 1,516/kg ($3.61/kg), (especially in export markets) as salmon. which was higher than most species except for Therefore, it is a more realistic and viable sturgeons. Kazakhstan imported a large amount strategy to first treat Caspian salmon as a niche of salmon/trout products, including 340 tons of species (that is, focusing on value) and refrain frozen whole trout and 5,000 tons of frozen whole from pursuing it as a commodity species (that Atlantic salmon in 2018. According to both FAO is, focusing on volume) before its technical and statistics and UN Comtrade statistics, Kazakhstan market prospects are firmly established. As a exported over 300 tons of fresh/chilled trout to native niche species, Caspian salmon tends to Russia in 2018. Even if Kazakhstan’s domestic have a competitive advantage in the local food trout production can completely substitute its catering industry and recreational fisheries, trout import and considering the domestic and and it can be marketed to export markets as a export trout market growth potential driven by novel salmon/trout product catering high-end 48 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS customers’ love for varieties and novelties. With genetic improvement program to develop better efforts in improving its aquaculture performance seed stock. A pilot test could be conducted to through tailor-made feed and genetics (for assess the technical and economic performance example, selective breeding), Caspian salmon of whitefish farming. Only when there are clear, could become a promising aquaculture species substantial market prospects should Kazakhstan in Kazakhstan in the long run. pursue semi-intensive or intensive whitefish farming. Whitefish Nonnative warmwater species Despite a whitefish hatchery in North Kazakhstan with a design capacity of producing The KFDP has set aquaculture production targets 20 million larvae a year for restocking, official of approximately 19,000 tons of catfish (Clarias statistics indicate only 358 tons of whitefish sp.); 1,300 tons of Barramundi, also known as were harvested in 2018 and 316 tons in 2019. Asian seabass (Lates calcarifer); and 50 tons of Most of the whitefish production in Kazakhstan tilapia. Clarias catfish (primarily African catfish is for domestic consumption. The first-sale price C. gariepinus) and tilapia are well-established was KZT 421/kg ($1/kg) in 2020. The estimated aquaculture species cultivated in many countries domestic demand for whitefish in 2030 is only worldwide, whereas Barramundi is a popular 600 tons, which is minuscule compared to the species in Southeastern Asia. These species 10,000 tons of whitefish production target in the may be attractive because of readily available government’s plan for aquaculture in 2030. The seed stock and farming technology, but farming prospect in export market is unclear because them tends to be expensive in Kazakhstan. RAS of the lack of disaggregated trade statistics on is normally needed to help these warmwater whitefish products. According to FAO statistics, species survive the cold weather in Kazakhstan, in 2018, only two countries (Saudi Arabia and whereas special farming systems that utilize ad the United States of America) imported a total hoc hot water resources (such as wastewater of 8,000 tons of whitefish products and only one from power plants or geothermal water) may country (Canada) exported whitefish products only sustain small-scale operations. The high in 2018. The world production of whitefish production cost would make it difficult for dropped by half from 56,905 tons in 1990 to Kazakhstan to compete with other producers 26,853 tons in 2018 because of the decline in of these species in both domestic and foreign capture fisheries production, whereas whitefish markets. These species may not even be able aquaculture production increased from 1,572 to outcompete pikeperch in the local commodity tons to 4,413 tons. In 2018, Canada had the market, although they may serve some niche largest whitefish capture fisheries production markets, such as specific ethnic groups that (7,706 tons), whereas Russia had the largest favor them or high-end restaurants that pursue whitefish aquaculture production (3,558 variety in their menus. Wels catfish (Silurus tons). The global experiences indicate that glanis), a local catfish species, could be a Kazakhstan’s target of 10,000 tons of whitefish potential aquaculture species in Kazakhstan in production in 2030 tends to be challenging. the long run. Kazakhstan may be better off pursuing a niche Commercial fishing species development strategy to focus on adding value to whitefish. The focus in the short In Kazakhstan, commercial fishing is mostly term could be on improving the productivity of conducted in large inland water bodies (mostly whitefish stock enhancement operations, the reservoirs) that are divided into many fishing quality of whitefish products, and the efficiency areas. Each area is leased to a specific tenant of the whitefish value chain. There could be a (which could be an individual or legal entity that CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 49 is a tax resident of Kazakhstan) for a period of Recreational fisheries 10–49 years.20 The tenant is obliged to protect Being a country with relatively low fish the reservoir from illegal fishing and carry out consumption notwithstanding, it is said that activities specified in the lease agreement, such (a) “every third Kazakhstani family has its own as restocking, maintenance (cutting vegetation, fisherman;” (b) there are many federations, dredging, rescuing juvenile fish from laced clubs, and fishing communities actively reservoirs, and so on), preventing mass fish engaging in sport/recreational fishing; and (c) mortality, aquaculture, fish processing, and/or the national fishing sports team of Kazakhstan sport fishing. has won the world championship twice in the The tenant must catch fish within the annual team scoring events.22 limits set by the state based on annual According to a mission report prepared by scientific research on the level of fish resources Randall Brummett, “In 2017, Kazakhstan issued in each reservoir. There are concerns that over 103 thousand licenses to fish, with total overly restrictive fishing quotas may not only revenues accruing to government of KZT 102 constrain commercial fishing production but million (approximately $300,000) from the sale could also jeopardize the health of fish stock of these licenses. The number of people who (that is, disease outbreaks in overpopulated fish in support of household food security is fish stocks). The existence of a large amount unknown, but such ‘subsistence’ recreational of unreported fish production indicates that fishing is conducted in all water bodies of fishing quotas have not been effectively Kazakhstan where fish exist.”23 implemented. The fishing and fish processing industry is eager to cooperate with the research Recreational fishing (including amateur community to set the fishing quotas in scientific fishing and sport fishing) has been deemed a and practical ways to strike a balance between promising sub-section in the fisheries sector economic and ecological objectives. of Kazakhstan which is endowed with 85,000 rivers and more than 48,000 lakes. According While the KFDP has adopted the strategy to an FAO publication in 2010,24 the main of shifting toward fish farming, commercial fish species targeted in recreational fishing fishing is expected to continue playing a crucial are catfish, pikeperch, pike, asp, salmonids role in the country’s fish production. Thus, (rainbow trout, grayling, and lenok), sturgeons, improving the efficiency and effectiveness of and carps (crucian, silver, and grass) and commercial fishing management is important. scaleless and scaly osman in the mountain The development of commercial fishing can areas. The main areas for recreational fishing also create opportunities, such as hatchery are near big settlements or industrial cities, businesses in support of restocking of the North including: Aral Sea and the Syr Darya delta lakes with carps, pikeperch, and indigenous species for ി Ural River (downstream) commercial fishing.21 ി Syr Darya River (downstream and estuary lakes) 20 EUROFISH article on “The fisheries and aquaculture sector in Kazakhstan.” June 29, 2020. https://eurofish.dk/the-fisheries- and-aquaculture-sector-in-kazakhstan/ 21 van Anrooy, R. 2018. “Mission Report on an Assessment of the Fishery Situation in Kyzylorda Oblast in Kazakhstan.” FAO/World Bank Cooperation Programme. 22 Article on “The best fishing destinations in Kazakhstan.” October 18, 2018. https://kazakhstan.travel/publications/en/22/the- best-fishing-destinations-in-kazakhstan. 23 Brummett, R. 2019. “Market Opportunities in Recreational Fishing.” Annex in the Back to Office Report of Randall Brummett. 24 www.fao.org/3/i1596e/i1596e.pdf. 50 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS ി Ili River (near the Kapshagay reservoir down up to 5 kg harvest). The tenants generally lack to Balkhash Lake) interest and/or financial resources to develop ി Southwest part of Lake Balkhash recreational fishing, and they are concerned with potential interference with their current ി Southwest part of Lake Alakol business when large investors of recreational ി Irtysh River fisheries join the industry. ി Shelek River (upstream) Cross-cutting constraints ി Tekes River (and its inlets) Previous sections have highlighted the ി The western side of Djungar Alatau challenges of developing Kazakhstan’s ി Various rivers that flow through the aquaculture production. The species that are Kazakhstani part of the Altai mountain range. better farmed in extensive systems (carp and According to personal communication with pikeperch) would benefit from basic research industry experts, the Federation of Sport and practical experiments. Other species such Fishing of the Republic of Kazakhstan is eager as trout and Caspian salmon may have potential to promote recreational fishing and would like in the local and export markets. Their production to have a fishing quota in all water bodies and can be supported by improving productivity independently issue licenses against the quota. through innovation, improved feed, and genetics. Yet, the current situation is that the tenants of Other constraints include an inadequate legal reservoirs/sites sell sport fishing licenses by framework and lack of monitoring and control of themselves to everyone, including members of food safety and environmental standards. These the federation, at a too high price (for example, points are further developed in Box 5.1 and in the KZT 1,500 per voucher for one day of fishing next section. BOX 5.1. INTERVIEW WITH AN INDUSTRY EXPERT FROM RYBPROM The export of pikeperch fillet (primarily to European countries) has played a vital role in the development of the fisheries industry in Kazakhstan. The expert attributed the success of pikeperch to “the national legislature, the system of state management of the fish industry, [and] the system of certification of entities and production control.”25 The expert highlighted the following issues and the way forward for fish processing and export: ി ‘Chaotic development’ of the market for raw fish materials and ‘ill-conceived establishment’ of processing facilities without ‘clear production strategies’ have resulted in overcapacity and consequently caused unstable supply and fluctuated prices that make trading partners in international markets reluctant to purchase products from Kazakhstan. ി Kazakhstan needs to ‘reduce the volume of exports of raw materials in favor of increasing exports of finished products. 25 “Fish processing and export - problems and solutions.” https://rybprom.kz/en/news/pererabotka-i-eksport-ryibyi-problemyi- i-resheniya CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 51 ി Kazakhstan should ‘more actively use the export potential of popular species’ and diversify its export toward ‘fish species which are found in large quantities, such as bream, crucian carp, [and] roach’. Kazakhstan can process raw fish materials imported from neighboring countries. ി Kazakhstan should focus on ‘scientific support’ to address the issues of ‘seeding, cultivation, replenishing, and regulating [fish] stocks’, including the proper determination of fishing quotas based on scientific and accurate stock assessment. ി Research institutes should collaborate with the industry on practical issues and strike a balance between economic benefits and ecological integrity. The industry can provide support (facilities, materials, fishing sites, fishing fleets, statistics, and so on) to research activities and receive scientific recommendations to guide its development. 52 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS 6. Conclusions and Recommendations Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 6. Conclusions and Recommendations A recent EUROFISH article26 points out the ി Introducing a traceability system for fish following constraints over aquaculture and products fisheries development in Kazakhstan: ി Investing in fish promotion and marketing ി The lack of a multiannual strategic plan efforts. prevents the systematic development of The above diagnosis and recommendations Kazakhstan’s fisheries and aquaculture sector. are sound. Based on the analysis in this report, ി The development of fisheries in Kazakhstan further recommendations are made in the is hampered by a lack of investment and a following paragraphs. lack of large companies. Small, fragmented fisheries are difficult to manage and control 6.1 An Urgent Need to Strengthen with a command-and-control approach. Data and Statistics in Aquaculture ി As in other countries, IUU fishing in and Fisheries Kazakhstan is one of the main challenges facing the industry, the resolution of which Evidence-based policy and planning are will require time and considerable efforts. impossible without reliable data and information. A challenge encountered in the preparation ി There is no mechanism for the control and of this report as well as the preliminary regulation of recreational fishing, an activity assessment report is to reconcile inconsistent practiced on a significant scale. data from different sources (national statistics, ി Obsolete technologies in aquaculture and FAO statistics, UN Comtrade statistics, import fish processing, a lack of marketing and data versus export data, and so on). Policy technological support for the industry, and and planning priorities tend to differ for 2.51 outdated management systems are among kg per capita fish consumption according to other factors that hinder the industry’s the estimates based on the official production development. statistics than for 13.17  kg per capita fish consumption according to the household survey. The article also highlights Kazakhstan’s advantages in fisheries and aquaculture Key actions to improve data and information development as follows: may include ി Abundant water resources ി Conducting a census of fisheries and aquaculture operations in Kazakhstan. ി A variety of species produced ി Conducting comprehensive surveys and ി A large domestic market where current fish in-depth analyses of the fish and seafood consumption is low market and value chain in Kazakhstan, ി Proximity to potential export markets. ി Facilitating registration/certification of fish The article suggests the following way forward: farms, and ി Cracking down on gray markets in production ി Carrying out extension and capacity building and processing on data collection and compilation. 26 EUROFISH article on “The fisheries and aquaculture sector in Kazakhstan.” June 29, 2020. https://eurofish.dk/the-fisheries-and-aquaculture-sector-in-kazakhstan 54 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS 6.2 Pursuing a Value-Oriented low-value commodity with a thin profit margin (as Opposed to Volume-Oriented) that often renders tilapia farming a money-losing business under fluctuating foreign demand, or Aquaculture Development Strategy in farmers’ words, a money-making business While production volume is a common policy for upstream feed suppliers and/or downstream target in policy and planning on fisheries and processing plants. Worse still, farmers’ sacrifice aquaculture development, more attention should was not appreciated by all stakeholders— be given to other performance metrics (for many countries complained that cheap tilapia example, economic value, social responsibility, export from China destroyed their domestic and environment/ecological integrity). tilapia industry. The situation has forced the tilapia industry in China to pay more attention As Kazakhstan generally does not face to the domestic market and explore ways to food shortage, and fish is a minor source add value to tilapia products. Indeed, the entire of animal protein for Kazakhstanis,27 aquaculture sector in China has been gradually there may not be an urgent need to increase shifting toward a value-oriented development fish production in the country for food security strategy, including paying increasing attention purposes. In addition, at the current stage to the environmental sustainability and social it may be difficult for Kazakhstan to rapidly responsibility of aquaculture. For example, increase aquaculture production. Species with a many cage-farming operations have been great market potential (for example, pikeperch) removed from inland water bodies to preserve face technical constraints on production that water quality for residential use. entail a long-term effort to overcome, whereas Adopting the right development strategy species with relatively more mature farming and avoiding being locked in a wrong technology (for example, carps, rainbow trout, development path is vital to Kazakhstan’s and sturgeons) are nevertheless subject to aquaculture in its infancy. It matters to limited domestic demand and/or competitive policy and business decision-making in international markets. every aspect of aquaculture development. A volume-oriented development strategy Kazakhstan is in the process of reorienting may not yield desirable outcomes. Take tilapia water bodies from ‘fishing to fish farming’.29 aquaculture in China as an example. Owing to However, shifting toward farming does not simply the continuing effort of tilapia farmers and the mean to adopt intensive aquaculture systems research community in improving productivity, or practices to pursue the highest production tilapia aquaculture production in China reached or productivity. Indeed, the disadvantage of 1.6 million tons in 2018, accounting for one-fourth extensive/pasture aquaculture in productivity of the world production. China exported half of can be turned into a marketing advantage by its tilapia produce and accounted for 70% of the selling fish grown as wild fish (or naturally farmed $1.4 billion of international tilapia trade in 2018.28 fish) for a premium price—many consumers are While the performance may seem impressive to willing to pay for such ‘wildness’. Under this outsiders, tilapia farmers in China know better. strategy, the focus of farming is not only on Rapid production expansion has made tilapia a expanding production, increasing fish growth, 27 FAO. 2020. “Aquaculture Growth Potential in Kazakhstan.” World Aquaculture Performance Indicators (WAPI) factsheet. http://www.fao.org/3/ca8809en/ca8809en.pdf 28 FAO. 2020. “Tilapia Production and Trade with a Focus on India.” WAPI factsheet. http://www.fao.org/3/ca9224en/ca9224en.pdf 29 News article on “Reorientation to fish farming, improvement of legislation and measures of state support - how fish industry developed in Kazakhstan” https://primeminister.kz/en/news/reviews/reorientation-to-fish-farming-improvement-of-legislation- and-measures-of-state-support-how-fish-industry-developed-in-kazakhstan CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 55 or reducing the feed conversion ratio (FCR), but also on creating/adopting an environment- and fish-friendly farming practices to produce BOX 6.1: COMMON CARP CAUGHT IN high-quality fish and turn this into economic KAZAKHSTAN value through proper marketing strategies. An effective legal and regulatory framework is needed to ensure high standards on farming, food safety, environmental integrity, and social licensing. Proper policy and planning are crucial to guiding an orderly and sustainable sector development. For example, financial incentives can be used to support ‘green aquaculture’. Data source: https://primeminister.kz/en/news/ reviews/reorientation-to-fish-farming-improvement- 6.3 Building a National Image for of-legislation-and-measures-of-state-support-how- Kazakhstan Fish fish-industry-developed-in-kazakhstan. “Very nice!” is the newly adopted slogan for Kazakhstan tourism. A one-minute short video for promoting Kazakhstan tourism30 has no room to 6.4 Domestic Market Development showcase the amazing fish in Kazakhstan, such If per capita fish consumption in Kazakhstan is as (a) a piece of delicious pikeperch fillet that close to the 2.51 kg estimation based on official would make the mouths of gastronomes water; production statistics, increasing domestic (b) prehistoric looking sturgeon with exquisite consumption should be a priority in policy beluga caviar; (c) exotic looking European carp (Box 6.1), unfamiliar yet appealing to Asian and planning. Even if the actual consumption people who may be only accustomed to Asian is closer to the 13.17 kg estimation based on carps; or (d) 2 m long catfish that would amaze household surveys, fostering or strengthening sport fishers as a dream trophy.31 the domestic fish market tends to be one of the most effective ways to facilitate aquaculture Social media have provided a powerful platform development in the long run. As suggested to pass on the images of the amazing fish in previously, a comprehensive investigation and Kazakhstan to every corner of the world. Yet, in-depth study are needed to understand factors all sub-sectors (fishing, farming, recreational that facilitate or constrain fish consumption in fisheries, processing, fish markets, food catering Kazakhstan. Some suggestions based on global services, and so on) need to live up to the ‘Very experiences are highlighted as follows: nice’ standard, and a long-term, systematic mechanism is needed to coordinate the efforts ി Public programs, such as nutrition education into a national image of the ‘amazing fish’ in and fish menu in hospitals, schools, and Kazakhstan. The benefits of the image may not other public institutions, have been a popular be immediate or directly visible; yet, it is essential measure to promote fish consumption, which for the pursuit of a value-oriented strategy, which can not only increase fish consumption is a promising way forward for fisheries and directly but also help foster future fish aquaculture development in Kazakhstan. consumers. 30 “Vice nice!” video on Kazakhstan tourism. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRGXq4t9wY4. 31 Article on “The best fishing destinations in Kazakhstan”. October 18, 2018. https://kazakhstan.travel/publications/en/22/the- best-fishing-destinations-in-kazakhstan. 56 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS ി In Kazakhstan, more and more consumers, aquaculture,33 is a hardy freshwater especially the young generation that pursue crustacean turning from a trash fish in a healthy lifestyle in the ‘urban’ culture swamps or a pest in paddy fields into a (as opposed to the nomadic meat-eating popular delicacy and another unofficial tradition), choose to eat fish for health ‘national fish’34 that supports a multi- benefits. Such consumers may prefer billion-dollar industry in China.35 imported fish (for example, salmon) whose The merit of these two success stories is that health benefits are well advertised but pay no fish is intrinsically undesirable. Processing, inadequate attention to local fish that are also cooking, and marketing innovations could nutritious. Therefore, there should be a tailor- transform ordinary or less desirable local made nutrition education program to improve fish in Kazakhstan (for example, breams and the public knowledge of the nutritional value crucian carp) into highly demanded products in and health benefits of local fish. domestic and/or foreign markets. Entrepreneurs ി For most people, food is not only a source in Kazakhstan have taken action in this of energy and nutrients but also a pleasure direction.36 For example, a fish processing of the palate. An undesirable food to some company (Rybprom) once collaborated with people could be a delicacy to others. Cuisine the European Bank for Reconstruction and culture and dietary habits matter. Development (EBRD) to implement a project to process breams into fish paste, sauces, • Milkfish (Chanos chanos) is a good and flavor enhancers.37 However, sporadic aquaculture species easy to cultivate, yet efforts may not be sufficient or sustainable, the thorny fish may not be desirable in and individual companies may not have the many cuisine cultures. This nevertheless resources, patience, and/or incentives to does not deter Southeastern Asian devote long-term effort for product or market people from finding many ways development since they cannot internalize all (deboning, marinating, and so on) to the benefits. Public support and coordination make delicious dishes from the fish. The are needed. world aquaculture production of milkfish ി In addition to conventional promotion reached 1.3 million tons in 2018, and it schemes (food tasting, cooking has become the ‘national fish’ (albeit demonstrations, food shows, food fairs and unofficially) of the Philippines.32 so on), social media (YouTube, Facebook, • Crayfish, a star aquaculture species and so on) can become an effective platform featured in a recent FAO factsheet on to foster fish dietary habit and cuisine the top 10 species groups in global culture through sharing recipes, cooking 32 FAO. Cultured aquatic species fact sheets. Chanos chanos. https://www.fao.org/fishery/en/culturedspecies/chanos_chanos/en 33 FAO. 2020. Top 10 species groups in global aquaculture 2018. http://www.fao.org/3/ca9383en/ca9383en.pdf 34 Yi, Lia. 2019. China’s Crayfish Craze - How Louisiana crayfish became China’s national dish. Published on the Goldthread website. 21 August 2019. https://www.goldthread2.com/food/how-louisiana-crayfish-became-china-national-dish/article/3023711 35 The Fish Site. 2016. “The Rise of China’s Crayfish Capital.” An editorial article published on the Fish Site. https://thefishsite. com/articles/the-rise-of-chinas-crayfish-capital; Ge, C. 2017. “China’s craving for crayfish creates $2 billion business.” South China Morning Post. July 26, 2017. https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2100001/chinas-craving-crayfish- creates-us2-billion-business; Harkell, L. 2018. “China gov’t says country’s crayfish industry worth $42bn.” Undercurrent News. June 19, 2018. https://www.undercurrentnews.com/2018/06/19/china-govt-says-crayfish-industry-worth-41bn/. 36 Rybprom. “Consumption of fish is a key to health.” https://rybprom.kz/en/news/potreblenie-ryibyi-put-k-zdorovyu. 37 Rybprom. “Fish processing and export - problems and solutions.” https://rybprom.kz/en/news/pererabotka-i-eksport-ryibyi- problemyi-i-resheniya. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 57 styles, experiences, lessons learned, and so delicacy in Finland. Crucian carp and on among a large number of people. A new bream are the cheapest, undesirable fish version of the traditional ‘Fish Thursday’ in Kazakhstan intended to be used as raw can be organized through social media and materials to produce fish sauce, whereas facilitated by public-private partnerships. China cultivated 2.8 million tons of crucian ി The lack of skills, experience, interest, and/ carp and 0.8 million tons of Wuchang bream or facilities to prepare fish dishes tends (Megalobrama amblycephala) for direct to deter households from buying fish. To human consumption. Chinese consumers overcome the constraint, most fish stores in are generally more tolerant of thorny Albania have facilities to cook the fish they fish but more demanding of freshness. sell according to customers’ preferences. Marketing fish from Kazakhstan as wild Such a business model, which is not yet or naturally produced fish may be able to common in Kazakhstan, could help promote overcome Chinese consumers’ partiality for fish consumption in Kazakhstan, especially live seafood; yet the quality of the fish (for in urban areas. example, size, taste, and texture) must be satisfactory. These are only a few among many ways to promote fish consumption in Kazakhstan. The ി Innovations in value-added products. key is to establish a mechanism to coordinate In 2018, Kazakhstan exported 1,200 tons them into a systematic, long-term effort in of dried fish at an average of $1.64/kg, fostering a fish-eating culture in Kazakhstan. primarily to Russia and Ukraine. Suppose 3 kg of raw fish materials are needed to produce 1 kg of dried fish, the price of the 6.5 Export Market Development raw materials would be less than $0.55/ kg, which indicates a limited value addition Fish fillets are the most lucrative fish export from the diversified product. The country accounting for 70% of Kazakhstan’s fish export also exported smoked fillet (primarily to value in 2018. A better solution is to increase Germany and Russia) at $9.2/kg; yet its the value of local fish through innovations quantity (46 tons) was rather limited. in marketing and processing, including the The main prepared/preserved product in following: Kazakhstan’s fish export is caviar substitute ി Improving the quality of fish production prepared from fish eggs other than that (in terms of freshness, cleanness, of sturgeon. The country’s exports of this and safety). This may require physical caviar substitute representing 2,000 tons investments in laboratories for fish quality ($4/kg) in 2018 went entirely to Russia — a monitoring, production, and marketing market with limited income and population infrastructure and facilities in the fish value growth potential. Canned products are less chain as well as human resource development common for freshwater fishes than marine through training and extension. fishes (for example, tunas and sardines), ി Identifying and exploring niche markets and Kazakhstan has little export of canned through proper marketing/branding fish that use local species. Much effort is strategies. The desirability of fish varies needed for Kazakhstan to develop suitable in different dietary and cuisine cultures. value-added products that substantially In Kazakhstan, the price of pikeperch is utilize local fish species, especially those comparable to or could be even lower currently deemed undesirable. Global than common carp; yet it is an expensive experiences could offer some guidance. For 58 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS example, a popular canned fish in China, Sturgeon ‘fried dace with salted black beans’38 is ി As the situation of sturgeon demand being made of dace (Cirrhinus molitorella), a carp lower than supply in the global market tends species normally undesirable because of its to persist in the near future, sturgeon farming small size and thorniness. in Kazakhstan may need to go through a These recommendations could be achieved process of consolidation before it becomes through a combination of targeted support a mature, robust industry. to the private sector, to innovation/incubator ി The public sector can help provide good centers bringing together the private sector, market and sector information and set public agency, and academia, as well as publicly guidance and standards to facilitate the financed capacity-building programs and sustainable development of the sturgeon promotion campaigns. sub-sector. Rainbow trout 6.6 Supply-Side Interventions ി Cage culture tends to be the main While this report is focused on the demand- contributor to export-oriented trout side analysis, some supply-side interventions production in Kazakhstan because of its by species have been suggested in Section III. relatively low production cost and fewer constraints over production expansion. Carp However, it is crucial to have proper ി Rehabilitation/restoration of existing earthen planning and management to ensure the pond systems suitable for carp farming long-term sustainability of cage culture, ി Genetic improvement programs to increase especially in inland water bodies. the growth performance of carp species ി One or a few leading entities (for example, ി Capacity building to increase the technical large companies or a functional farmers/ and economic performance of the cultivation processors/ traders association) are crucial of carp species. to facilitate the development of an export- oriented trout industry in Kazakhstan. While Pikeperch such leading entities are usually molded by ി Pikeperch may be farmed extensively as an market forces, the public sector can adopt a additional species in carp culture in earthen policy to facilitate the process. ponds. Caspian salmon ി There should be more efforts in basic ി It may be a more realistic and viable strategy research and practical experiments of to treat Caspian salmon as a niche species pikeperch aquaculture to lay a foundation for (that is, focusing on value) and refrain from a potential leap forward in pikeperch farming pursuing it as a commodity species (that is, in the future. focusing on volume) before its technical and ി Kazakhstan may learn from the experiences market prospects are firmly established. in the farming of pikeperch or similar species ി With efforts in improving its aquaculture in other countries. performance through tailor-made feed and genetics (for example, selective breeding), 38 “Fried dace with salted black beans.” Wikipedia (accessed January 8, 2021) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fried_dace_with_salted_black_beans CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 59 Caspian salmon could become a promising agricultural developments (for example, oil aquaculture species in Kazakhstan in the extraction and mining) on the water quality. long run. Proper planning and management are also needed to prevent self-pollution of aquaculture 6.7 Establishment of Genetic activities. In Ghana, disease outbreaks have Resource Centers recently caused large mortalities in cage tilapia farming in Lake Volta. In China, many Similar to the ‘Genetic Selection Centers’ cages have recently been removed from inland proposed in an early version of the KFDP, genetic water bodies that are used as water sources resource centers could be established to lay a for residential use. The global salmon farming solid foundation for aquaculture and fisheries industry has faced increasing resistance against development in Kazakhstan. The centers could cage salmon farming in marine areas because cover carp, sturgeon, pikeperch, northern pike, of concerns over its negative environmental European perch, Caspian salmon, and whitefish; impacts. Kazakhstan should learn from these yet the species need to be prioritized according experiences to plan the development of cage to the country’s aquaculture and fisheries aquaculture (especially in inland water bodies) development plan. within the carrying capacity of the farming The key functions of a genetic resource center environment. may include (a) collecting, managing, and The concern of reservoir tenants over potential preserving wild genetic resources; (b) producing interference with their current business by broodstock (including breeders and broodfish large investments in recreational fisheries fingerlings) for restocking or fish farming is an example of the importance of social and improving broodstock quality via genetic acceptability of fisheries and aquaculture improvement programs (for example, selective development. The potential impacts of rapid breeding); and (c) conducting research, training, aquaculture expansion within a short time and other scientific or extension activities. frame on the businesses and livelihoods of A genetic resources center could be a state- commercial fishers and other stakeholders on owned enterprise or a joint venture under a the fish value chain must be considered in the public-private partnership. The center can planning of aquaculture development. be financially supported by the government The enforcement of environmental and although it should be run like a business. social standards entails an effective and efficient legal and regulatory framework and 6.8 Environmental, Social, and other institutional arrangements. Imperfect legislation is one of the main barriers hindering Institutional Dimensions the development of fisheries and aquaculture Aquaculture planning should consider in Kazakhstan, and the government is currently existing and potential impacts of fish farming focused on addressing the following issues in environments. For example, proper site this regard:39 selection and zoning are needed to protect ി Restrictions over the construction of fish farms cage aquaculture in the Caspian Sea from the and structures in the water protection zone existing and potential impacts of industrial and 39 News article on “Reorientation to fish farming, improvement of legislation and measures of state support - how fish industry developed in Kazakhstan.” Friday, September 25, 2020. https://primeminister.kz/en/news/reviews/reorientation-to-fish- farming-improvement-of-legislation-and-measures-of-state-support-how-fish-industry-developed-in-kazakhstan 60 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS ി Overpayment for the use of water in feed subsidies in 2019 was KZT 400 million aquaculture ($1  million). The government plans to expand the scope of subsidies to hatchery operations ി Underutilization of local water bodies and the establishment of cage farms and RAS ി Cumbersome documentation requirements farms.40 needed to establish pond and tank In addition to the supply-side support, public aquaculture systems investments or support for market development ി Cost needed to change the purpose of are needed to enhance market capacity to agricultural land for aquaculture activities. accommodate production expansion on the The government has amended legislations, such supply side. One specific target is to increase as the laws on the protection, reproduction, per capita fish consumption, particularly and use of animal species and those on for local species. Measures or activities for architectural, urban planning, and construction achieving the target may include investments or activities, to facilitate aquaculture development other financial instruments on and considers establishing specific laws on ി Improvement of hygienic conditions aquaculture. The recently established Fisheries along the fish value chain through the Committee under the Ministry of Ecology, implementation of sanitary standards and Geology and Natural Resources is another regular quality control (testing of samples progress in strengthening the institutional in a laboratory); arrangements in support of fisheries and aquaculture development in the country. ി Establishment or expansion of retail channels for fish products, such as specialized fish Internationally, Kazakhstan should try to facilitate stores, fish counters in supermarkets, and regional cooperation through collaboration with fish vendors in bazaars, among others; regional fisheries/aquaculture organizations, such as Central Asian and Caucasus Regional ി Establishment of fish/seafood restaurants Fisheries and Aquaculture Commission that target low- and mid-end customers; (CACFish) and Network of Aquaculture Centres ി Innovations in cooked or uncooked products in Asia-Pacific (NACA). The cost of membership made of local fish species; is worthwhile considering the benefits in terms ി Fish marketing activities, such as food fairs, of knowledge exchange and potential joint food tasting, cooking shows, and cooking projects. Strategic partnerships with key fish competitions, among others; and trade partners (for example, Russia and China) would also be useful. ി Fish menu in hospitals, schools, and other public institutions. 6.9 Public Investments or Support These are only a few measures or activities in a potential ‘Fish Market Development Programme’ The lack of government support is deemed that is much needed for unlocking the growth a constraint on aquaculture development in potential of fisheries and aquaculture in Kazakhstan. The existing support is mostly Kazakhstan. The formulation of the program supply side, with a focus on subsidizing the entails a comprehensive survey and in-depth purchase of aquafeed. The total amount of assessment of the fish market and value 40 Ren, Yan, Mantang Xiong, Jixin Yu, Wei Li, Bo Li, Jiashou Liu, and Tanglin Zhang. 2019. “Effects of Artificial Submersed Vegetation on Consumption and Growth of Mandarin Fish Siniperca chuatsi (Basilewsky) Foraging on Live Prey.” Journal of Freshwater Ecology 34 (1): 433–444. DOI: 10.1080/02705060.2018.1561530. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 61 chain in the country as well as a wide range of enhancement of capture fisheries. Natural stakeholder consultations. productivity is regulated in part by heavy predation pressure and competition, leading to low survival of juveniles. By feeding and 6.10 Building a Blue Economy for growing juveniles past the point where Kazakhstan Fisheries predation and competition are the highest, the proportion of preferred species in the The global drive to build a healthy and profitable catch can be increased. This is a long- seafood/fishing sector captured in Sustainable standing practice in Kazakhstan that could Development Goal 14 points toward a strategy that be made more profitable by moving away builds synergy between catch and conservation. from low-value (but easy to grow) whitefish The blue economy focuses on economic growth, and carps toward higher-value pikeperch improved livelihoods, and a healthy ecosystem. and salmonids. Leveraging a healthy ecosystem by redirecting fishing from a ‘tragedy of the commons’, toward ി Cage aquaculture of salmonids. balanced exploitation depends in large part on Reproduction and culture technology for being able to add value through markets for high- Caspian salmon is readily available for deployment in the many water bodies in quality products produced in a demonstrably Southern Kazakhstan, most particularly the eco-friendly manner. Caspian Sea. Enterprise modeling (Table 6.1) Kazakhstan’s seafood production is currently demonstrates the considerable potential dominated by low-value carps and whitefish, for for this technology to be profitable. For which there is likely little scope for expansion these cages to avoid polluting the natural in existing and near-term markets. To generate environments in which they are installed, enough jobs and revenues to meet national targets and to ensure that product quality and for growth, both higher-value species and higher production efficiency are maintained, volumes of these species need to be moved. scientifically sound regulations based on From analysis of markets and trade for reliable models of the carrying capacity Kazakhstan seafood, pikeperch and indigenous of the ecosystem to absorb nutrients from salmonids seem to be the products that are most aquaculture are necessary. These are internationally available for adaptation to likely to succeed in markets in the short term. Kazakhstan’s conditions. Both of these are indigenous species and so can be produced in a wide variety of management ി High density closed aquaculture systems systems. Pikeperch is established in existing for high-value fish. This is already being marketing channels, minimizing adaptation that done for sturgeon to produce high-value might be needed in the value chain. Caspian caviar and trout for domestic markets. salmon can be produced to have the same Recirculating aquaculture technology, culinary characteristics as the widely known hatchery systems, and specialized feeds for Atlantic salmon and could move as a specialty pikeperch farming have been successfully product through similar value chains. piloted in North America and elsewhere. Some work remains to be done to bring The following three approaches to increasing these to commercial scale, but enterprise volume without increasing negative modeling based on current practice and environmental externalities have been shown to expertise (that is available for hire) indicates work elsewhere: that they have considerable potential for ി Increasing sales volume through stock profitability. 62 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE 6.1: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS FOR THE CULTURE OF CASPIAN SALMON IN CAGES IN KAZAKHSTAN Technology Semi-intensive finfish Investment 421,702 $ Main output 89,063 kg of fish per year Markets Domestic/pond bank Production parameters Production unit 5 cages Target size (g) 3,000 Production cycle 12 months Mortality rate during grow out period 5% No. of cycles per year 1   No. of fingerlings 5.0 per m3 Total no. of fingerlings required per Cage volume 1,250 m3 31,250 cycle Total system volume 6,250 m3 Initial weight of one fingerling (g) 100 Productivity 14.25 kg/m 3 Feed conversion rate 1.25 kg/ha/ Per year 89,063 Per production cycle Per year year Unit Total Unit Total No. of No. of Unit costs amount costs amount units units ($) ($) ($) ($) Output (revenue) Size (g) Share Whole finfish 3,000 100% kg 89,063 4 356,250 89,063 4 356,250 Total output (revenue) 100% kg 89,063 4 356,250 89,063 4 356,250 Intermediate inputs  Fingerlings No. 31,250 0.5 15,625 31,250 0.5 15,625 Feed kg 18 1.50 27 18 28 499 lump Maintenance and repair of structures 1 15,000 15,000 1 15,000 15,000 sum Maintenance and repair of equipment/ lump 1 1,250 1,250 1 1,250 1,250 machinery sum lump Electricity/water/logistics/miscellaneous 1 36,000 36,000 1 36,000 36,000 sum Marketing costs (including transport and kg 89,063 0.00 0 89,063 0.00 0.00 commission) Total intermediate inputs 67,902 68,374 Value added 288,348 287,876 Value added per unit of primary output   3.2 3.2 person Hired labor 1,200 28,800 24 1,200 28,800 Months person Subtotal hired labor 24.0 28,800 24.0 28,800 months Gross margin 259,548 259,076 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 63 TABLE 6.1 Interest charges 3.0% — — Taxes Gross profit 259,548 259,076 Depreciation 30,000 30,000 Net profit 229,548 229,076 Net profit per unit of primary output 2.6 2.6 Return to labor (per person month) 10,765 10,745 Investment costs, annual depreciation, maintenance, and repair Maintenance/ Depre- repair Useful Inv. Unit No. of ciation Item life cost cost ($) units Per year % of inv. (years) ($) $ per ($) cost per year year Buildings/structures Cages 10,000 10 5 50,000 5,000 5 2,500 Buildings, roads, docks, and boats 250,000 20 1 250,000 12,500 5 12,500 Equipment/machinery Equipment 25,000 2 1 25,000 12,500 5 1,250 Tube well 75,000 10 0 0 0 5 0 Aerators 12,000 5 0 0 0 5 0 Total assets 325,000 Working capital per cycle 96,702 Total  421,702 30,000 16,250 Net present value (NPV) at Internal rate of return (IRR) 59.1% 9% 1,667,769 Benefit-cost ratio 2.47 6.11 Capturing the Potential taste tests in New York, Washington DC, and Paris have repeatedly demonstrated the superiority Aquaculture has taken over as the major supplier of cultured salmon over wild caught. If price of seafood globally not just because capture points can be achieved or even approached, fisheries are in general decline affecting supply. cultured pikeperch and Caspian salmon can Importantly, unlike inherently unreliable capture supplement and even replace the wild-caught fisheries, aquaculture is capable of delivering product in the market. Since culture is not a product meeting the exact specification for necessarily constrained by natural productivity, weight, length, and culinary attributes on time volumes can be increased well beyond whatever in the amounts demanded by the market. Blind could be produced by capture. 64 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS To capture the opportunities for economic including hiring international experts to work growth and increased food supply from with local scientists and industry operators, aquaculture, Kazakhstan can invest in well- can rapidly bring Kazakhstan’s fish farmers targeted public sector action, leverage better up to speed. Marketing information and environmental management, and encourage support through awareness raising could private sector adoption of best aquaculture position Kazakhstan’s seafood as a high- practices that reduce or reverse environmental quality, environmentally friendly product for impacts. Activities might include the following: European and high-end domestic and Asian markets. ി Develop and deploy a strong regulatory framework for aquaculture development ി Integrate aquaculture into sustainable that prepares the industry for expansion landscapes. Aquaculture should develop and increased levels of scrutiny in in the context of sustainable watershed markets. Carrying capacity modeling, management. It can take many forms and zoning, surveillance, biosecurity, and can be conducted in a wide range of natural and manmade ecosystems including cages ongoing consultation with stakeholders to in small and large reservoirs or natural water ensure clear messaging about the importance bodies, raceways along river-courses, and of sustainability as a prerequisite to access indoor ‘fish plants’ as well as the traditional seafood markets of the future would be key ponds. Stocking (that is, ranching) aspects. programs can support capture and/or ി Foster adoption of production systems recreational fishing. Each ecosystem has a and value chains that are demonstrably different carrying capacity that determines ‘blue’ (that is, environmentally how much of what kind of aquaculture sustainable). Aquaculture is highly it can support. The government can use innovative and ‘Best Practices’ are new and existing technology and natural constantly evolving, including in Kazakhstan. resource management science to support Strong engagement with adaptive research, mechanisms to encourage integration. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 65 Annexes Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products ANNEX A: Information on Resource and Socioeconomic Conditions TABLE A1: KAZAKHSTAN’S POPULATION, GDP, AND NATURAL RESOURCES FROM A REGIONAL AND GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE Total country area Surface area of Total renewable Population GDP per capita (excluding coastal inland water bodies water resources (2018)a (2018)b c d c waters, 2013–2017) (2015) (2013–2017) Country / area Ratio to Share Share Share Share Mil- Current world 2 2 Billion of world km of world km of world 3 of world lions $ average m /year total (%) total (%) total (%) total (%) (%) World 7,631 100.00 11,222 100.00 134,108,230 100.00 3,434,349 100.00 54,737 100.00 Landlocked developing 509 6.67 1,549 13.81 16,946,350 12.64 504,329 14.69 2,746 5.02 countries Eastern 294 3.85 11,105 98.96 18,826,260 14.04 628,791 18.31 5,232 9.56 Europe Central Asia 72 0.94 3,883 34.61 4,001,730 2.98 284,073 8.27 228 0.42 Western Asia 271 3.55 13,013 115.96 4,829,698 3.60 106,238 3.09 439 0.80 Central Asia Kazakhstan 18.3 0.24 9,440 84.12 2,724,900 2.03 176,442 5.14 108 0.20 Kyrgyz 6.3 0.08 1,283 11.44 199,950 0.15 7,190 0.21 24 0.04 Republic Tajikistan 9.1 0.12 826 7.36 141,380 0.11 1,382 0.04 22 0.04 Turkmenistan 5.9 0.08 6,966 62.08 488,100 0.36 90,398 2.63 25 0.05 Uzbekistan 32.5 0.43 1,555 13.85 447,400 0.33 8,662 0.25 49 0.09 The Caucasus Armenia 3.0 0.04 4,211 37.53 29,740 0.02 1,332 0.04 8 0.01 Azerbaijan 9.9 0.13 4,718 42.04 86,600 0.06 79,865 2.33 35 0.06 Georgia 4.0 0.05 4,050 36.09 69,700 0.05 374 0.01 63 0.12 Data sources: a. UN World Population Prospects (2019 Revision); b. Total GDP from IMF WEO Database (April 2019) divided by population from UN World Population Prospects (2019 Revision); c. FAO. 2016. AQUASTAT Main Database – FAO. Website accessed on May 16, 2019; d. FAOSTAT Land Cover database (updated June 2019). CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 67 TABLE A2: STATUS AND TREND OF PER CAPITA FISH CONSUMPTION IN KAZAKHSTAN FROM A GLOBAL/ REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE, 1993 VERSUS 2013 Per capita fish consumption (kg/year) Country/area Annual growth (%) 1993 2013 World 14.3 19.9 1.7 Landlocked developing countries 3.0 4.3 1.8 Eastern Europe 10.1 17.0 2.7 Central Asia 2.0 2.1 0.5 Western Asia 7.8 8.0 0.1 Kazakhstan + selected countries in neighboring regions Kazakhstan 3.7 4.8 1.3 Kyrgyz Republic 0.1 2.5 19.0 Tajikistan 0.5 0.5 0.5 Turkmenistan 4.5 3.6 -1.1 Uzbekistan 1.0 0.7 -1.4 Armenia 1.2 4.5 6.8 Azerbaijan 3.0 2.8 -0.4 Georgia 3.8 8.6 4.1 Iran, Islamic Rep. 5.2 10.1 3.4 Russian Federation 14.3 22.7 2.3 TABLE A3: ESTIMATION OF KAZAKHSTAN’S APPARENT FISH CONSUMPTION BY PRODUCT FORM, 2018 Do- mestic Total consumption Import Export produc- (live weight) Product tion Live Product Con- Live Product Con- Live Per Total weight weight version weight weight version weight capita (tons) (tons) (tons) factor (tons) (tons) factor (tons) (kg) Finfish and 42,935 43,231 1.21 52,150 31,860 1.54 49,145 45,941 2.51 shellfish Finfish 42,935 41,843 1.20 50,009 31,604 1.54 48,617 44,328 2.42 Fish, live (HS0301) 20 1.00 20 30 1.00 30 Fish, fresh/chilled 460 1.05 484 1,025 1.00 1,025 (HS0302) Fish, frozen whole 30,962 1.03 31,884 13,945 1.11 15,469 (HS0303) 68 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE A.3 Do- mestic Total consumption Import Export produc- (live weight) Product tion Live Product Con- Live Product Con- Live Per Total weight weight version weight weight version weight capita (tons) (tons) (tons) factor (tons) (tons) factor (tons) (kg) Fish, fillet and other 1,682 2.10 3,528 11,427 2.21 25,221 meat (HS0304) Fish, dried/salted/ 971 1.82 1,770 2,050 2.40 4,920 smoked (HS0305) Fish, prepared/ 7,749 1.59 12,324 3,128 0.62 1,952 preserved (HS1604) Shellfish 1,387 1.54 2,141 256 2.06 528 1,613 0.09 Crustaceans 566 1.26 713 32 1.73 55 (HS0306) Mollusks (HS0307) 363 1.72 625 3 1.36 5 Aquatic invertebrates nei 4 1.00 4 60 1.00 60 (HS0308) Prepare/preserved 454 1.76 798 161 2.53 408 shellfish (HS1605) Note: The following items excluded in the calculation of live weight: ornamental fishes, live trout used as seed, and fish oils. The conversion factor of each Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System (HS) level 4 product group is the average of the top five HS level 6 products in this group with the largest export or import volume (EUFOMA 2019). The results of fish, shellfish, and fish and seafood from aggregation. Live weight = product weight × conversion factor. TABLE A4: FISH CONSUMPTION IN KAZAKHSTAN BY REGION, ESTIMATED FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA Year 2018 (kg/capita) Year 2019 (kg/capita) Region Low- Low- All Urban Rural All Urban Rural income income population population population population population population population population Kazakhstan 13.170 13.035 13.353 7.665 14.596 14.667 14.499 5.744 Atyrau 19.029 17.525 20.648 11.119 18.984 17.722 20.303 19.977 North 18.818 21.259 16.815 5.883 20.140 22.534 18.164 8.575 Kazakhstan East 15.381 16.360 13.86 6.263 19.093 21.348 15.430 4.647 Kazakhstan Kyzylorda 14.953 15.143 14.818 10.103 16.031 15.013 16.782 6.666 Zhambyl 14.475 14.918 14.183 6.966 15.103 15.340 14.945 5.120 Kostanay 14.334 14.991 13.568 7.996 16.565 16.844 16.231 7.800 Karagandy 13.913 13.406 15.827 4.198 15.782 15.326 17.558 3.441 Pavlodar 13.896 13.718 14.315 3.758 13.872 13.835 13.958 3.451 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 69 TABLE A.4 Year 2018 (kg/capita) Year 2019 (kg/capita) Region Low- Low- All Urban Rural All Urban Rural income income population population population population population population population population West 13.705 14.404 12.936 4.324 14.819 15.333 14.244 6.343 Kazakhstan Almaty 13.700 15.149 13.282 4.781 15.065 16.482 14.668 3.390 Akmola 12.718 15.037 10.62 6.492 16.336 18.216 14.616 6.737 Turkistan 12.012 11.406 18.61 15.152 12.616 13.203 12.474 8.161 Aktobe 11.533 11.618 11.382 5.580 11.566 12.317 9.724 4.399 Mangystau 9.066 10.056 8.421 0.465 10.227 10.268 10.199 0.489 Nur-Sultan 8.650 8.650 — 1.093 11.562 11.562 5.347 city Almaty city 12.563 12.563 — 3.882 15.938 15.938 1.940 Shymkent 9.053 9.053 — 0.154 6.587 6.587 3.197 city Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. Note: Low-income population = population with income below subsistence level. 70 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS ANNEX B: Status and Trends of Fish Production in Kazakhstan ി According to the FAO statistics, Kazakhstan’s total wild production, primarily freshwater total fishery production was 33,660 tons in bream bramis brama), pikeperch (Sander 2018, including 32,000 tons of capture fisheries lucioperca), northern pike (Esox lucius) and production and 1,600 tons of aquaculture European perch (Perca fluviatilis). Major production (4.8% of the total fishery farmed species include carps, sturgeons, production). The FAO production statistics trout, northern pike, and European perch. were lower than the national statistics (37,283 ി Kazakhstan’s share in world aquaculture tons of capture fisheries production and 5,652 production is much lower than its share tons of aquaculture production in 2018). in the world total land area, world total ി Major wild production species include a inland water surface area, and world total variety of carp species (over 70% of the renewable water resources. TABLE B1: SUBNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF TOTAL FISH PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2019 Share of Share of Tons Number total (%) total (%) Kazakhstan 52,578 100.0 18,395,660 100.0 2.86 Almaty region (including Almaty city) 6,071 11.5 3,893,932 21.2 1.56 Turkistan region (including Shymkent city) 10,438 19.9 2,993,258 16.3 3.49 Akmola region (including Nur-Sultan city) 567 1.1 1,816,949 9.9 0.31 Karagandy region 927 1.8 1,378,554 7.5 0.67 East Kazakhstan region 8,463 16.1 1,378,504 7.5 6.14 Zhambyl region 1,005 1.9 1,125,297 6.1 0.89 Kostanay region 270 0.5 872,736 4.7 0.31 Aktobe region 280 0.5 869,603 4.7 0.32 Kyzylorda region 7,378 14.0 794,165 4.3 9.29 Pavlodar region 1,222 2.3 753,804 4.1 1.62 Mangystau region 1,575 3.0 678,224 3.7 2.32 West Kazakhstan region 274 0.5 652,314 3.5 0.42 Atyrau region 13,063 24.8 633,801 3.4 20.61 Nord Kazakhstan region 1,140 2.2 554,519 3.0 2.06 Data source: Production from Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. Total population from UN World Population Prospects (2019 revision), regional population: http://www.geo-ref.net/en/kaz.htm. Per capita production calculated by production divided by population. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 71 TABLE B2: CAPTURE FISHERIES PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN VERSUS SELECTED COUNTRIES IN NEIGHBORING REGIONS, 2000–2018 Capture fisheries production, Capture fisheries production, Annual 2000 2018 growth Country/area between Share of world Share of world 2000 and Tons Tons total (%) total (%) 2018 (%) World 94,778,335 100.00 97,398,330 100.00 0.15 Landlocked developing countries 775,998 0.82 1,346,977 1.38 3.11 Central Asia 52,373 0.06 81,719 0.08 2.50 Western Asia 1,048,957 1.11 1,439,935 1.48 1.78 Southern Asia 6,147,298 6.49 9,233,480 9.48 2.29 Eastern Europe 4,666,655 4.92 5,447,236 5.59 0.86 Top 20 capture fisheries countries / territories in Central Asia, Western Asia, Southern Asia, and Eastern Europe 1. India 3,726,427 3.93 5,342,888 5.49 2.02 2. Russian Federation 4,027,370 4.25 5,116,900 5.25 1.34 3. Bangladesh 1,004,264 1.06 1,871,225 1.92 3.52 4. Iran, Islamic Republic 383,991 0.41 828,872 0.85 4.37 5. Oman 120,421 0.13 553,445 0.57 8.84 6. Sri Lanka 296,750 0.31 510,537 0.52 3.06 7. Pakistan 598,743 0.63 504,810 0.52 −0.94 8. Turkey 503,352 0.53 314,095 0.32 −2.59 9. Poland 217,682 0.23 222,704 0.23 0.13 10. Georgia 1,791 0.00 213,077 0.22 30.41 11. Maldives 119,373 0.13 151,013 0.16 1.31 12. Yemen, Republic 114,750 0.12 131,308 0.13 0.75 13. Ukraine 391,867 0.41 76,181 0.08 −8.70 14. United Arab Emirates 105,456 0.11 73,000 0.07 −2.02 15. Saudi Arabia 49,080 0.05 68,776 0.07 1.89 16. Iraq 20,767 0.02 36,936 0.04 3.25 17. Uzbekistan 3,306 0.00 33,600 0.03 13.75 18. Kazakhstan 36,620 0.04 32,000 0.03 −0.75 19. Nepal 16,700 0.02 22,070 0.02 1.56 20. Turkmenistan 12,228 0.01 15,000 0.02 1.14 72 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE B.2 Capture fisheries production, Capture fisheries production, Annual 2000 2018 growth Country/area between Share of world Share of world 2000 and Tons Tons total (%) total (%) 2018 (%) Central Asia Uzbekistan 3,306 0.00 33,600 0.03 13.75 Kazakhstan 36,620 0.04 32,000 0.03 −0.75 Turkmenistan 12,228 0.01 15,000 0.02 1.14 Tajikistan 167 0.00 1,100 0.00 11.04 Kyrgyz Republic 52 0.00 19 0.00 −5.44 The Caucasus Georgia 1,791 0.00 213,077 0.22 30.41 Azerbaijan 18,797 0.02 1,601 0.00 −12.79 Armenia 1,133 0.00 369 0.00 −6.04 Data source: FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. Global capture fisheries production 1950–2018 (FishStatJ). March 2020. TABLE B3: AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN FROM A REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE, 2000–2018 2000 2018 Annual growth Country/area Share of world Share of world between 2000 and Tons Tons 2018 (%) total (%) total (%) World 43,014,088 100.00 114,508,042 100.00 5.59 Landlocked developing 76,887 0.18 446,428 0.39 10.27 countries Central Asia 6,677 0.02 62,093 0.05 13.19 Western Asia 118,029 0.27 462,664 0.40 7.88 Southern Asia 2,672,459 6.21 10,173,614 8.88 7.71 Eastern Europe 198,951 0.46 360,568 0.31 3.36 Top 20 aquaculture countries/territories in Central Asia, Western Asia, Southern Asia, and Eastern Europe 1. India 1,942,531 4.52 7,071,302 6.18 7.44 2. Bangladesh 657,120 1.53 2,405,416 2.10 7.48 3. Iran, Islamic Rep. 40,550 0.09 439,718 0.38 14.16 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 73 TABLE B.3 2000 2018 Annual growth Country/area Share of world Share of world between 2000 and Tons Tons 2018 (%) total (%) total (%) 4. Turkey 79,031 0.18 311,681 0.27 7.92 5. Russian Federation 77,132 0.18 204,032 0.18 5.55 6. Pakistan 12,485 0.03 159,083 0.14 15.19 7. Saudi Arabia 6,004 0.01 72,000 0.06 14.80 8. Nepal 15,023 0.03 59,000 0.05 7.90 9. Uzbekistan 5,652 0.01 57,384 0.05 13.74 10. Poland 35,795 0.08 43,361 0.04 1.07 11. Sri Lanka 4,420 0.01 30,921 0.03 11.41 12. Iraq 1,745 0.00 25,737 0.02 16.13 13. Czechia 19,475 0.05 21,751 0.02 0.62 14. Ukraine 30,969 0.07 18,595 0.02 −2.79 15. Hungary 12,886 0.03 17,852 0.02 1.83 16. Armenia 893 0.00 17,000 0.01 17.78 17. Israel 20,098 0.05 17,000 0.01 −0.93 18. Bulgaria 3,654 0.01 16,342 0.01 8.68 19. Moldova 1,710 0.00 12,530 0.01 11.70 20. Romania 9,727 0.02 12,298 0.01 1.31 Central Asia Uzbekistan 5,652 0.01 57,384 0.05 13.74 Kyrgyz Republic 58 0.00 2,559 0.00 23.41 Kazakhstan 813 0.00 1,600 0.00 3.83 Tajikistan 86 0.00 480 0.00 10.02 Turkmenistan 68 0.00 70 0.00 0.16 The Caucasus Armenia 893 0.00 17,000 0.01 17.78 Georgia 86 0.00 2,382 0.00 20.26 Azerbaijan 140 0.00 478 0.00 7.06 Data source: FAO Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics. Global aquaculture production 1950-2018 (FishStatJ). March 2020. 74 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS ANNEX C: Seafood Import and Export Note on data and methods be measured by trade volume or value reported by the importer (that is, import data) or that The international market assessment uses reported by the exporter (that is, export data). annual data from the UN Comtrade Database, The assessment here uses import data as the accessed on February 14, 2020 (UN Comtrade, primary data, whereas export data are used as 2020). Trade patterns for the recent three years supplementary data when the import data are (2016-2018) are examined, with the year 2018 not available or less complete—the procedure being the focus. for determining whether to use import or export International trade between two countries can data is illustrated below. FIGURE C1: PROCEDURE OF DETERMINING WHETHER TO USE IMPORT OR EXPORT DATA Import data available for 2016, 2017 and 2018 Import Data NO Export data available for 2016, 2017 and 2018 Export Data NO Import data available for 2017 and 2018 Import Data NO Export data available for 2017 and 2018 Export Data NO Import data available for 2018 Import Data NO Export data available for 2018 Export Data NO Import data available for 2017 Import Data NO Export data available for 2017 Export Data NO Import data available for 2016 Import Data NO Export data available for 2016 Export Data NO No data The UN Comtrade data on export (or import) Trade statistics constructed as such could includes reexports (or reimports). To assess differ from those directly using import or export international trade patterns more accurately, data from Comtrade or those from different data reexports (or reimports) have been removed from sources (for example, FAO Global Fishery and the export (or import) data used in this exercise. Aquaculture Commodities Statistics).41 41 The FAO Global Fishery and Aquaculture Statistics are not used because they only contain data on countries’ trade with the world market but not individual markets at the national level, and the FAO fish trade data are only updated to 2017 at the time of this analysis. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 75 The trade volume or value of HS level 4 or level number of products that measures how many 6 commodities at the country level are directly products a country’s export comprises. The obtained from the UN Comtrade Database. other is the effective number of products These basic data are aggregated into high- that measures the diversity of products level commodity groups and/or country groups (that is, the evenness of the distribution of (including the entire world). the export among products).43 For example, while Kazakhstan exported 21 fish and Trade volume or value is used to measure the fishery products to Austria in 2018 (that is, size of international markets for commodities the actual number of products being 21), the or commodity groups at the country, regional, corresponding effective number of products and global levels based on which the following is only 2.73, reflecting that Kazakhstan’s derivative indicators are constructed: export to Austria in 2018 was dominated by ി Market price, which is equal to trade value frozen fish fillets nei (HS030489, 71%), fresh/ divided by trade volume. It should be noted chilled fish fillets net (HS030449, 13%) and that at an aggregate level, directly using prepared/preserved fish (HS160420, 10%). trade value divided by trade volume may ി Per capita import is calculated by dividing a result in an inaccurate measure of trade country’s import of a commodity by its total price because some Comtrade data points population—the population data are from report only trade value but not trade volume. the UN World Population Prospects 2019 While such data points are included in the (United Nations 2019). This indicator could calculation of trade volume or trade value, give some indication of market potential, they have been excluded from the calculation that is, a country that has a relatively small of trade prices at the aggregate level. per capita import of a commodity may have ി The number of suppliers in a market has relatively great potential in importing the two measures. One is the actual number of commodity. suppliers that measures how many countries Import composition or territories export to the market. The other is the effective number of suppliers that Kazakhstan’s import of live fish was primarily measures the diversity of suppliers (that is, freshwater ornamental fish. the evenness of the market share distribution The 460 tons ($3,138 million) import of fresh/ among suppliers).42 For example, while chilled (whole) fish primarily includes fresh/ 12 countries exported trout products to chilled salmons, seabass, seabream, and trout. Belarus in 2018 (that is, the actual number of suppliers being 12), the corresponding The 971 tons ($3.9 million) import of dried/ effective number of suppliers is only 1.72, salted/smoked/offal fish include primarily dried/ reflecting that Belarus’ trout import market salted/smoked fish livers/roes, smoked fillets in 2018 was dominated by Norway (87% nei, miscellaneous smoked freshwater fishes, of the market value), Finland (7%), and dried fish nei, and dried fish fillets nei. Denmark (5%). The $54.987 million (30,962 tons) frozen ി The number of products in a country’s (whole) fish products accounted for 57.1% export has two measures. One is the actual of the total import value. Around half of this 42 The effective number of suppliers in a market is calculated by , where si denotes supplier i’s share in the market (equal to its export to the market divided by the total export of all suppliers to the market). 43 The effective number of products in a country’s export is calculated by , where ri denotes the share of product i in the total export (equal to the export value of product i divided by the total export value of all products). 76 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS commodity group were relatively high-value seaweed for human consumption and agar-agar products, such as frozen Atlantic/Danube used mostly in scientific research. salmon, Pacific salmon, and trout. The other The 1,230 tons ($1.12 million) import of non- half were contributed by relatively low- food products include fishmeal, dead fish value products, such as herrings, mackerel, / crustaceans / mollusks / other aquatic sardines, and Alaska Pollock. The $4.724 invertebrates unfit for human consumption, also million (1,628 tons) of frozen fish fillets and known as ‘fish waste’, and raw coral and similar other fish meat products accounted for 4.91% materials. of the total import value. Among the species identified in the statistics were salmon and Russia (Table C5) and Norway (Table C6) catfish. Relatively high-value products in are the two largest exporters of fish and this group include frozen skipjack tuna fillets fishery products to Kazakhstan, accounting and frozen cod fillets. Kazakhstan imported for, respectively, 42.93% and 32.45% of the $2.668 million (465 tons) of shrimp/prawns country’s total fish and fishery products import and $3.900 million (971 tons) of Fish, dried/ value in 2018. Russia exported a variety of fish salted/smoked/offals, 4 tons ($21,000) import and fishery products to Kazakhstan, whereas of other aquatic invertebrates was primarily Norway’s export primarily focused on salmon dried/salted/smoked sea urchins. Within the products. 454 tons ($2.726 million) import of prepared Other major fish and fishery products exporters or preserved shellfish products, shrimps/ to Kazakhstan include Iceland (Table C7), prawns, mussels, and cuttlefish/squid were China (Table C8), Belarus (Table C9), Estonia identified in the statistics. (Table C10), United Kingdom (Table C11), India The 478 tons ($2.582 million) import of seaweed (Table C12), Lithuania (Table C13), and Chile and seaweed products include primarily (Table C14). TABLE C1: KAZAKHSTAN’S IMPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS, 2018 Value Volume Kazakhstan’s import of fish and fishery $, thou- Share of the Share of the Price ($/kg) products from: Tons sands total (%) total (%) 1. Russian Federation 41,345 42.93 18,979 42.12 2.18 2. Norway 31,248 32.45 14,029 31.14 2.23 3. Iceland 5849 6.07 3744 8.31 1.56 4. China 2994 3.11 1078 2.39 2.78 5. Belarus 2248 2.33 765 1.70 2.94 6. Estonia 1438 1.49 2551 5.66 0.56 7. United Kingdom 1277 1.33 494 1.10 2.59 8. India 1216 1.26 256 0.57 4.74 9. Lithuania 991 1.03 540 1.20 1.84 10. Chile 796 0.83 145 0.32 5.49 Rest of the world (32 countries) 6904 7.17 2474 5.49 2.79 World (42 countries) 96,307 100.00 45,055 100.00 2.14 Data source: UN Comtrade. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 77 TABLE C2: PRODUCT COMPOSITION OF KAZAKHSTAN’S IMPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS, 2018 Value Volume (tons) Price HS code Share of Share of $, thou- ($/kg) the total Tons the total sands (%) (%) 1. Atlantic and Danube salmon, frozen HS030313 22,155 23.00 4,686 10.40 4.73 2. Herrings (Clupea spp.), frozen HS030351 9,118 9.47 10,697 23.74 0.85 3. Mackerel, frozen HS030354 8,691 9.02 5,226 11.60 1.66 4. Prepared or preserved fish (excluding HS160420 6,320 6.56 3,583 7.95 1.76 whole or in pieces) 5. Livers, roes, and milt, frozen HS030391 3,414 3.55 1,384 3.07 2.47 6. Sardines, sardinella, and brisling or HS160413 2,979 3.09 1,569 3.48 1.90 sprats, prepared or preserved 7. Shrimps and prawns, frozen (excluding HS030617 2,668 2.77 465 1.03 5.74 cold-water species) 8. Herrings, prepared or preserved HS160412 2,408 2.50 1,262 2.80 1.91 9. Alaska Pollock (Theragra HS030367 2,382 2.47 1,719 3.82 1.39 chalcogramma), frozen 10. Caviar substitutes HS160432 2,162 2.24 454 1.01 4.76 11. Sardines, sardinella, brisling, or sprats, HS030353 1,870 1.94 2,825 6.27 0.66 frozen 12. Trout, frozen HS030314 1,469 1.52 341 0.76 4.31 13. Atlantic and Danube salmon, fresh or HS030214 1,454 1.51 136 0.30 10.71 chilled 14. Anchovies, Indian mackerels, seerfishes, jacks, crevalles, silver pomfrets, Pacific saury, scads, capelin, HS030359 1,452 1.51 1,734 3.85 0.84 Kawakawa, bonitos, marlins, sailfishes, and spearfish, frozen 15. Pacific salmon (excluding sockeye HS030312 1,413 1.47 440 0.98 3.21 salmon), frozen 16. Seaweeds and other algae, fit for HS121221 1,342 1.39 413 0.92 3.25 human consumption 17. Agar-agar, whether or not modified HS130231 1,227 1.27 63 0.14 19.33 18. Other freshwater and saltwater fish, HS030389 1,104 1.15 621 1.38 1.78 frozen 19. Fish fillets, frozen, nei HS030489 1,086 1.13 326 0.72 3.33 20. Prepared or preserved fish nei, whole HS160419 1,018 1.06 333 0.74 3.05 or in pieces (excluding minced) Other products 185 products 20,573 21.36 6,778 15.04 3.04 All fish and fishery products 205 products 96,307 100.00 45,055 100.00 2.14 Data source: UN Comtrade. 78 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE C3: KAZAKHSTAN’S IMPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS (HS LEVEL 4 OR 6), 2018 Commodity group Kazakhstan’s import from the world, 2018 Value Volume Name HS code Price a ($/kg) Share of the (tons) $, thousands total (%) Fish and fishery products   96,307 100.00 45,055 2.14 Finfish products   84,527 87.77 41,960 2.01 Products under Fish, live 431 0.45 78 5.55 HS0301 Products under Fish, fresh/chilled 3,138 3.26 460 6.83 HS0302 Products under Fish, frozen whole 54,987 57.10 30,962 1.78 HS0303 Products under Fish, fillet and other meat 4,724 4.91 1,682 2.81 HS0304 Products under Fish, dried/salted/smoked/offals 3,900 4.05 971 4.02 HS0305 Fish, prepared/preserved, including Products under caviar and caviar substitutes from 16,839 17.48 7,749 2.17 HS1604 fish eggs Products under Fish oils 509 0.53 59 8.61 HS1504 Shellfish products   8,078 8.39 1,387 5.82 Crustaceans, excluding prepared/ Products under 3,447 3.58 566 6.09 preserved products HS0306 Mollusks, excluding prepared/ Products under 1,885 1.96 363 5.19 preserved products HS0307 Aquatic invertebrates nei, excluding Products under 21 0.02 4 4.88 prepared/preserved products HS0308 Crustaceans/mollusks/other Products under aquatic invertebrates, prepared or 2,726 2.83 454 6.01 HS1605 preserved HS121221 + Seaweed and seaweed products HS121229 + 2,582 2.68 478 5.41 HS130231 HS050800 + Non-food products HS051191 + 1,120 1.16 1,230 0.91 HS230120 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: a. For an aggregate commodity item, directly using trade value divided by trade volume may result in an inaccurate measure of trade price because some UN Comtrade data points report only trade value but not trade volume. While such data points are included in the calculation of trade volume or trade value, they have been excluded from the calculation of trade prices at the aggregate level. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 79 TABLE C4: KAZAKHSTAN’S IMPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS (HS LEVEL 6), 2018 Top 20 products in Kazakhstan’s fish and fishery im- Kazakhstan’s import from the world, 2018 port, 2018 Value Rank- Commodity name HS code Share of the Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) ing $, thousands total (%) Atlantic and Danube 1 HS030313 22,155 23.00 4,686 4.73 salmon, frozen Herrings (Clupea spp.), 2 HS030351 9,118 9.47 10,697 0.85 frozen 3 Mackerel, frozen HS030354 8,691 9.02 5,226 1.66 Prepared or preserved 4 fish (excluding whole or in HS160420 6,320 6.56 3,583 1.76 pieces) Livers, roes, and milt, 5 HS030391 3,414 3.55 1,384 2.47 frozen Sardines, sardinella, and 6 brisling or sprats, prepared HS160413 2,979 3.09 1,569 1.90 or preserved Shrimps and prawns, frozen 7 (excluding cold-water HS030617 2,668 2.77 4,65 5.74 species) Herrings, prepared or 8 HS160412 2,408 2.50 1,262 1.91 preserved Alaska Pollock (Theragra 9 HS030367 2,382 2.47 1,719 1.39 chalcogramma), frozen 10 Caviar substitutes HS160432 2,162 2.24 454 4.76 Sardines, sardinella, 11 HS030353 1,870 1.94 2,825 0.66 brisling, or sprats, frozen 12 Trout, frozen HS030314 1,469 1.52 341 4.31 Atlantic and Danube 13 HS030214 1,454 1.51 136 10.71 salmon, fresh or chilled Anchovies, Indian mackerels, seerfishes, jacks, crevalles, silver 14 pomfrets, Pacific saury, HS030359 1,452 1.51 1,734 0.84 scads, capelin, Kawakawa, bonitos, marlins, sailfishes, and spearfish, frozen Pacific salmon (excluding 15 HS030312 1,413 1.47 440 3.21 sockeye salmon), frozen Seaweeds and other algae, 16 HS121221 1,342 1.39 413 3.25 fit for human consumption Agar-agar, whether or not 17 HS130231 1,227 1.27 63 19.33 modified Other freshwater and 18 HS030389 1,104 1.15 621 1.78 saltwater fish, frozen 80 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE C.4 Top 20 products in Kazakhstan’s fish and fishery im- Kazakhstan’s import from the world, 2018 port, 2018 Value Rank- Commodity name HS code Share of the Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) ing $, thousands total (%) 19 Fish fillets, frozen, nei HS030489 1,086 1.13 326 3.33 Prepared or preserved 20 fish nei, whole or in pieces HS160419 1,018 1.06 333 3.05 (excluding minced) Other products 185 products 20,573 21.36 6,778 3.04 All fish and fishery products 205 products 96,307 100.00 45,055 2.14 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: As the trade data used are primarily import data supplemented with export data, the trade value reflects mostly cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) value. TABLE C5: RUSSIAN FEDERATION’S EXPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS TO KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 Kazakhstan’s import from Russian Federation, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 1. Prepared or preserved fish, excluding 5,742 13.89 3,335 1.72 whole or in pieces (HS160420) 2. Atlantic and Danube salmon, frozen 3,314 8.02 557 5.95 (HS030313) 3. Herrings (Clupea spp.), frozen 3,148 7.61 3,658 0.86 (HS030351) 4. Sardines, sardinella, and brisling or sprats, prepared or preserved 2,592 6.27 1,209 2.14 (HS160413) 5. Alaska Pollock (Theragra 2,382 5.76 1,719 1.39 chalcogramma), frozen (HS030367) 6. Herrings, prepared or preserved 2,153 5.21 1,194 1.80 (HS160412) 7. Mackerel, frozen (HS030354) 1,874 4.53 985 1.90 8. Caviar substitutes (HS160432) 1,401 3.39 312 4.49 9. Other Pacific salmon, frozen (HS030312) 1,354 3.28 424 3.19 10. Other shrimps and prawns, whether in 1,205 2.91 162 7.45 shell or not, frozen (HS030617) Other products 16,180 39.13 5,423 2.98 All products 41,345 100.00 18,979 2.18 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 81 TABLE C6: NORWAY’S EXPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS TO KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 Kazakhstan’s import from Norway, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 1. Atlantic and Danube salmon, frozen 17,916 57.34 3,889 4.61 (HS030313) 2. Herrings (Clupea spp.), frozen (HS030351) 5,448 17.44 6,204 0.88 3. Mackerel, frozen (HS030354) 2,538 8.12 1,706 1.49 4. Atlantic and Danube salmon, fresh or 1,452 4.65 136 10.71 chilled (HS030214) 5. Livers, roes, and milt, frozen (HS030391) 1,075 3.44 514 2.09 6. Trout, frozen (HS030314) 915 2.93 210 4.37 7. Fish heads, tails, maws, and tongues, 695 2.22 599 1.16 frozen (HS030399) 8. Anchovies, Indian mackerels, seerfishes, jacks, crevalles, silver pomfrets, Pacific saury, scads, capelin, Kawakawa, bonitos, 342 1.09 414 0.83 marlins, sailfishes, and spearfish, frozen (HS030359) 9. Fish meat, whether or not minced, frozen 328 1.05 178 1.85 (HS030499) 10. Fish livers and roes, dried, salted, or in 278 0.89 152 1.83 brine, smoked (HS030520) Other products 261 0.83 29 8.87 All products 31,248 100.00 14,029 2.23 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. TABLE C7: ICELAND’S EXPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS TO KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 Kazakhstan’s import from Iceland, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 1. Mackerel, frozen (HS030354) 3,112 53.20 1,833 1.70 2. Livers, roes, and milt, frozen (HS030391) 1,424 24.35 585 2.43 3. Anchovies, Indian mackerels, seerfishes, jacks, crevalles, silver pomfrets, Pacific saury, scads, capelin, Kawakawa, 959 16.39 1,163 0.82 bonitos, marlins, sailfishes, and spearfish, frozen (HS030359) 82 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE C.7 Kazakhstan’s import from Iceland, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 4. Other freshwater and saltwater fish, 183 3.13 64 2.85 frozen (HS030389) 5. Fish meat, whether or not minced, 169 2.89 93 1.82 frozen (HS030499) 6. Herrings (Clupea spp.), frozen 3 0.06 5 0.65 (HS030351) All products 5,849 100.00 3,744 1.56 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. TABLE C8: CHINA’S EXPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS TO KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 Kazakhstan’s import from Estonia, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 1. Fish fillets, frozen, nei 511 17.07 180 2.84 (HS030489) 2. Seaweeds and other algae, fit for 495 16.54 291 1.70 human consumption (HS121221) 3. Eels (Anguilla spp.), prepared or 408 13.61 176 2.31 preserved (HS160417) 4. Other shrimps and prawns, whether in 372 12.43 85 4.36 shell or not, frozen (HS030617) 5. Tilapias, catfish, carp, eels, Nile perch, and snakeheads, including 307 10.26 89 3.44 fillets, smoked (HS030544) 6. Cuttlefish and squid, prepared or 143 4.79 26 5.52 preserved (HS160554) 7. Caviar (HS160431) 128 4.26 1 167.26 8. Tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), fillets, 112 3.75 49 2.28 frozen (HS030461) 9. Other fish fillets, dried, salted, or in 76 2.54 15 4.96 brine, not smoked (HS030539) 10. Shrimps and prawns, prepared or preserved, not in airtight containers 74 2.46 8 9.09 (HS160521) Other products 368 12.30 157 2.34 All products 2,994 100.00 1,078 2.78 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 83 TABLE C9: BELARUS’S EXPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS TO KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 Kazakhstan’s import from Belarus, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 1. Caviar substitutes (HS160432) 735 32.68 142 5.19 2. Prepared or preserved fish, excluding 311 13.84 172 1.81 whole or in pieces (HS160420) 3. Herrings, prepared or preserved 256 11.38 67 3.80 (HS160412) 4. Trout, including fillets, smoked 156 6.94 9 18.34 (HS030543) 5. Salmons, including fillets, smoked 155 6.90 9 17.31 (HS030541) 6. Other fish fillets, dried, salted, or in 104 4.64 6 18.45 brine, not smoked (HS030539) 7. Cuttlefish and squid, prepared or 100 4.43 16 6.05 preserved (HS160554) 8. Anchovies, Indian mackerels, seerfishes, jacks, crevalles, silver pomfrets, Pacific saury, scads, capelin, Kawakawa, bonitos, 58 2.57 60 0.96 marlins, sailfishes, and spearfish, frozen (HS030359) 9. Meals of fish or crustaceans, mollusks, or other aquatic invertebrates, unfit for 53 2.36 79 0.68 human consumption (HS230120) 10. Sardines, sardinella, and brisling or sprats, 50 2.20 55 0.90 prepared or preserved (HS160413) Other products 271 12.05 151 1.80 All products 2,248 100.00 765 2.94 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. TABLE C10: ESTONIA’S EXPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS TO KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 Kazakhstan’s import from Estonia, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 1. Fish fillets, frozen, nei (HS030489) 511 17.07 180 2.84 2. Herrings (Clupea spp.), frozen (HS030351) 383 26.64 655 0.58 3. Tunas, skipjack, and Atlantic bonito, 17 1.20 6 2.99 prepared or preserved (HS160414) 84 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE C.10 Kazakhstan’s import from Estonia, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 4. Other fish, whole or in pieces, prepared 14 0.96 9 1.57 or preserved (HS160419) 5. Mackerel, prepared or preserved 2 0.17 1 2.86 (HS160415) All products 1,438 100.00 2,551 0.56 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. TABLE C11: UNITED KINGDOM’S EXPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS TO KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 Kazakhstan’s import from United Kingdom, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 1. Mackerel, frozen (HS030354) 581 45.47 337 1.72 2. Fish oils, other than liver oils (HS150420) 411.00 32.15 16.00 26.44 3. Livers, roes, and milt, frozen (HS030391) 154.740 12.12 70.200 2.20 4. Fish livers and roes, dried, salted, or in 96.00 7.52 46.00 2.08 brine, smoked (HS030520) 5. Fish heads, tails, maws, and tongues, 20.00 1.55 18.00 1.10 frozen (HS030399) 6. Trout, fillets, frozen (HS030482) 14.00 1.13 7.00 2.13 7. Seaweeds and other algae, fit for human 0.827 0.06 0.006 137.83 consumption (HS121221) 8. Seabream (Sparidae), fresh or chilled 0.064 0.01 0.005 12.80 (HS030285) All products 1,277.00 100.00 494.00 2.59 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. TABLE C12: INDIA’S EXPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS TO KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 Kazakhstan’s import from India, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 1. Other shrimps and prawns, whether in 1,090.00 89.63 217.00 5.01 shell or not, frozen (HS030617) 2. Cuttlefish and squid, frozen (HS030743) 124.00 10.21 38.00 3.23 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 85 TABLE C.12 Kazakhstan’s import from India, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 3. Coral and similar material, unworked or 1.37 0.11 0.500 2.75 simply prepared (HS050800) 4. Agar-agar (HS130231) 0.57 0.05 0.002 284.50 All products 1,216.00 100.00 256.00 4.74 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. TABLE C13: LITHUANIA’S EXPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS TO KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 Kazakhstan’s import from Lithuania, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 1. Mackerel, frozen (HS030354) 547.0 55.21 337.00 1.62 2. Livers, roes, and milt, frozen (HS030391) 152.0 15.33 70.00 2.16 3. Atlantic and Danube salmon, frozen 147.0 14.83 80.00 1.85 (HS030313) 4. Trout, frozen (HS030314) 90.0 9.11 17.00 5.26 5. Herrings (Clupea spp.), frozen 41.0 4.17 35.00 1.18 (HS030351) 6. Anchovies, prepared or preserved 10.0 1.01 0.51 19.91 (HS160416) 7. Fish oils, other than liver oils (HS150420) 2.2 0.22 0.03 83.15 8. Agar-agar (HS130231) 1.2 0.12 0.01 96.75 All products 991.0 100.00 540.00 1.84 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. TABLE C14: CHILE’S EXPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS TO KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 Kazakhstan’s import from Chile, 2018 Top 10 products (by value) Value Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) $, thousands Share of total (%) 1. Atlantic and Danube salmon, frozen 755 94.78 141 5.34 (HS030313) 2. Pacific, Atlantic, and Danube salmon, 42 5.22 4 11.31 fillets, frozen (HS030481) All products 796 100.00 145 5.49 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. 86 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS Export composition smoked/offal fish products which accounted for 2.7% of its total fish and fishery products It should be noted that while both the UN export value in 2018, in the form of $1.937 Comtrade data and FAO data indicate over million of dried fish sent to Russia, Ukraine, and 2,000 tons of export of caviar substitute from Latvia; $419,000 of smoked fish nei exported Kazakhstan, the export is not reflected in the to Germany, Russia, and the Kyrgyz Republic; national statistics. and $238,000 of fish flours/meals/pellets fit Most fresh/chilled exports are not identified for human consumption exported to Belarus, by species, but $130,000 of fresh/chilled trout Russia, and the Kyrgyz Republic. and $84,000 of (presumably reexported) fresh/ chilled shark fins were sent to Russia. Kazakhstan exported $11.805 million of prepared/preserved fish which accounted for Kazakhstan exported $12.428 million of frozen 10.58% of its total fish export value in 2018, fish which accounted for 11.14% of its total fish largely as caviar substitutes ($8.164 million) and and fishery products export value in 2018. prepared/preserved sardines ($2.226 million) to Kazakhstan exported $78.34 million of fish Russia. fillets, which accounted for 70.21% of its total Interestingly, there were also various amounts of fish products export value in 2018, most notably miscellaneous marine fishes,38 shrimps/prawns, $75.262 million to Poland and Germany, and corals, mollusks, sea cucumbers, seaweeds, $1.561 million of fresh fish fillets sent primarily and jellyfish (presumably) reexported mostly to Austria and elsewhere in Europe. to China, Belarus, and Russia. Kazakhstan Kazakhstan exported $3.011 million dried/salted/ exported $49,000 of crustacean products. TABLE C15: NATIONAL MARKETS OF KAZAKHSTAN’S FISH AND FISHERY EXPORT, 2018 xxxxx44 Kazakhstan’s export of fish and Per capita Population, 2018 fishery products, 2018 GDP, 2018 Number of Value Ranked Country / products Share of world Volume (tons) Ratio to world by value territory average (%) Price ($/kg) Thousands world total thousands Current $ Effective total (%) Share of Actual (%) $, 1 Poland 21,132.00 18.9400 2,737.00 7.72 5 1.16 37,922 0.50 15,448 138 2 Germany 17,516.00 15.7000 2,383.00 7.35 14 1.36 83,124 1.09 47,535 424 Russian 3 17,268.00 15.4800 12,656.00 1.36 56 8.92 145,734 1.91 11,372 101 Federation 4 Netherlands 14,673.00 13.1500 2,086.00 7.03 7 1.11 17,060 0.22 53,607 478 5 Lithuania 10,197.00 9.1400 1,532.00 6.66 4 1.06 2,801 0.04 19,027 170 6 China 9,157.00 8.2100 5,498.00 1.67 12 2.50 1,427,648 18.71 9,364 83 44 Including anchovies, Indian mackerels, seerfishes, jacks, crevalles, silver pomfrets, Pacific saury, scads, capelin, Kawakawa, bonitos, marlins, sailfishes, and spearfish CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 87 TABLE C.15 Kazakhstan’s export of fish and Per capita Population, 2018 fishery products, 2018 GDP, 2018 Number of Value Ranked Country / products Share of world Volume (tons) Ratio to world by value territory average (%) Price ($/kg) Thousands world total thousands Current $ Effective total (%) Share of Actual (%) 7 Austria $, 6,299.00 5.6500 709.00 8.88 21 2.73 8,891 0.12 51,305 457 United States 8 3,018.00 2.7000 335.00 9.02 1 1.00 327,096 4.29 62,918 561 of America 9 Czechia 2,788.00 2.5000 385.00 7.24 7 1.19 10,666 0.14 22,992 205 Kyrgyz 10 1,516.00 1.3600 879.00 1.73 40 8.97 6,304 0.08 1,283 11 Republic 11 Switzerland 1,295.00 1.1600 163.00 7.94 2 1.04 8,526 0.11 82,757 737 12 Ukraine 1,225.00 1.1000 1,893.00 0.65 6 3.17 44,246 0.58 2958 26 13 Canada 994.00 0.8900 120.00 8.26 2 1.03 37,075 0.49 46,190 412 14 Belarus 807.00 0.7200 1,248.00 0.65 4 1.95 9,453 0.12 6,309 56 15 Georgia 775.00 0.6900 700.00 1.11 8 2.79 4,003 0.05 4,050 36 16 Azerbaijan 467.00 0.4200 436.00 1.07 3 1.42 9,950 0.13 4,718 42 17 France 436.00 0.3900 78.00 5.58 2 1.83 64,991 0.85 42,778 381 18 Uzbekistan 418.00 0.3700 608.00 0.69 12 5.16 32,476 0.43 1,555 14 North 19 397.00 0.3600 335.00 1.19 1 1.00 2,083 0.03 6,083 54 Macedonia 20 Romania 256.00 0.2300 57.00 4.50 6 3.81 19,506 0.26 12,281 109 21 Estonia 181.00 0.1600 24.00 7.53 5 3.11 1,323 0.02 23,252 207 22 Latvia 154.00 0.1400 67.00 2.29 4 2.00 1,928 0.03 18,087 161 23 Turkey 142.00 0.1300 36.00 4.00 3 1.99 82,340 1.08 9,367 83 24 Slovakia 111.00 0.1000 13.00 8.35 5 3.83 5,453 0.07 19,543 174 25 Denmark 109.00 0.1000 15.00 7.22 1 1.00 5,752 0.08 61,205 545 26 Hungary 89.00 0.0800 52.00 1.70 1 1.00 9,707 0.13 16,604 148 27 Serbia 49.00 0.0400 5.00 9.76 2 1.47 8,803 0.12 5,738 51 28 Bulgaria 43.00 0.0400 11.00 4.05 1 1.00 7,052 0.09 9,246 82 29 Tajikistan 30.00 0.0300 17.00 1.74 9 6.07 9,101 0.12 826 7 30 Slovenia 15.00 0.0100 1.58 9.67 3 1.89 2,078 0.03 26,017 232 31 Moldova 13.00 0.0100 6.61 1.99 1 1.00 4,052 0.05 2,791 25 88 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE C.15 Kazakhstan’s export of fish and Per capita Population, 2018 fishery products, 2018 GDP, 2018 Number of Value Ranked Country / products Share of world Volume (tons) Ratio to world by value territory average (%) Price ($/kg) Thousands world total thousands Current $ Effective total (%) Share of Actual (%) 32 Finland $,11.00 0.0100 1.24 8.58 2 2.00 5,523 0.07 49,653 442 33 Norway 1.37 0.0012 0.14 10.07 1 1.00 5,338 0.07 81,336 725 34 Luxembourg 0.73 0.007 0.04 16.88 1 1.00 604 0.01 115,102 1,026 35 Mongolia 0.46 0.004 0.10 4.79 1 1.00 3,170 0.04 4,104 37 36 Kuwait 0.27 0.002 0.08 3.34 1 1.00 4,137 0.05 34,237 305 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. TABLE C16: PRODUCT COMPOSITION OF KAZAKHSTAN’S EXPORT OF FISH AND FISHERY PRODUCTS, 2018 Value Volume (tons) Share Share Price Rank- Commodity name (ranked by export HS code $, thou- of the of the ($/ ing value) Tons sands total total kg) (%) (%) 1 Fish fillets, frozen, nei HS030489 75,262 67.45 10,399 29.64 7.24 2 Fish, frozen, nei HS030389 9,381 8.41 10,509 29.95 0.89 3 Caviar substitutes HS160432 8,164 7.32 2,052 5.85 3.98 Fish waste – dead fish, crustaceans, and 4 other aquatic invertebrates, unfit for HS051191 3,586 3.21 1,827 5.21 1.96 human consumption Sardines, sardinella, and brisling or 5 HS160413 2,226 2.00 736 2.10 3.02 sprats, prepared or preserved Other fish, dried, whether or not salted 6 HS030559 1,937 1.74 1,181 3.37 1.64 but not smoked 7 Fish fillets, fresh or chilled, nei HS030449 1,561 1.40 446 1.27 3.50 8 Fish meat, whether or not minced, frozen HS030499 884 0.79 265 0.76 3.33 Prepared or preserved fish, excluding 9 HS160420 823 0.74 188 0.53 4.38 whole or in pieces 10 Carp, frozen HS030325 739 0.66 942 2.69 0.78 Meals of fish or crustaceans, mollusks, 11 or other aquatic invertebrates, unfit for HS230120 698 0.63 996 2.84 0.70 human consumption CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 89 TABLE C.16 Value Volume (tons) Share Share Price Rank- Commodity name (ranked by export HS code $, thou- of the of the ($/ ing value) Tons sands total total kg) (%) (%) Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and 12 HS030329 553 0.50 1,155 3.29 0.48 snakeheads (Channa spp.), frozen Seaweeds and other algae, fit for human 13 HS121221 477 0.43 92 0.26 5.17 consumption 14 Mussels, prepared or preserved HS160553 437 0.39 154 0.44 2.83 15 Other fish, including fillets, smoked HS030549 419 0.38 46 0.13 9.19 16 Other salmonidae, frozen HS030319 364 0.33 158 0.45 2.31 17 Livers, roes, and milt, frozen HS030391 261 0.23 133 0.38 1.96 18 Catfish, frozen HS030324 252 0.23 253 0.72 0.99 Anchovies, Indian mackerels, seerfishes, jacks, crevalles, silver pomfrets, Pacific 19 HS030359 246 0.22 220 0.63 1.12 saury, scads, capelin, Kawakawa, bonitos, marlins, sailfishes, and spearfish, frozen 20 Fish flours fit for human consumption HS030510 238 0.21 389 1.11 0.61 Other products 88 products 3,079 2.76 2,945 8.39 1.05 All fish and fishery products 108 products 111,585 100.00 35,087 100.00 3.18 Data source: UN Comtrade. 90 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS ANNEX D: Estimation of International Market Potential for Kazakhstan’s Fish Exports TABLE D1: INTERNATIONAL MARKET POTENTIAL FOR KAZAKHSTAN’S EXPORT OF FROZEN FISH FILLETS NEI (HS030489) Kazakhstan’s export of frozen Growth potential for Kazakhstan’s export to each market: fish fillets nei (HS030489) to increase or decrease during 2018-2030 each market, 2018 Both population growth Total demand growth Value Population only and income Top 10 growth income growth (%) Per capita demand markets growth driven by Volume (tons) Volume (tons) Volume (tons) $, thousands Share of the Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) Population Value ($, Value ($, total (%) (%) (%) Poland 20,524 27.27 2,653 7.74 14.86 −2.58 11.90 −529 −68 2,442 316 Germany 16,566 22.01 2,230 7.43 8.16 0.01 8.17 2 0 1,354 182 Netherlands 14,407 19.14 2,009 7.17 8.46 2.29 10.95 330 46 1,577 220 Lithuania 10,102 13.42 1,435 7.04 17.22 −11.30 3.97 −1,141 −162 402 57 Austria 4,483 5.96 497 9.02 8.13 3.20 11.58 143 16 519 58 United States of 3,018 4.01 335 9.02 9.69 6.89 17.25 208 23 521 58 America Czechia 2,690 3.57 373 7.21 13.33 0.74 14.17 20 3 381 53 Switzerland 1,286 1.71 162 7.94 9.76 7.74 18.25 99 13 235 30 Canada 989 1.31 120 8.25 10.88 10.14 22.12 100 12 219 26 North 397 0.53 335 1.19 14.11 −1.55 12.35 −6 −5 49 41 Macedonia Rest of the 802 1.06 250 3.20 world World 75,262 100.00 10,399 7.24 10.12 −773 −123 7,698 1,040 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices—see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017. Population projections are from the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). The income elasticity for freshwater and diadromous fishes is used as a proxy for income elasticity for this product. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 91 TABLE D2: INTERNATIONAL MARKET POTENTIAL FOR KAZAKHSTAN’S EXPORT OF FROZEN FISH NEI (HS030389) Kazakhstan’s export of frozen Growth potential for Kazakhstan’s export to each market: fish nei (HS030389) to each increase or decrease during 2018–2030 market, 2018 Both population Value Population only and income Population growth (%) Total demand growth Top 10 growth income growth (%) Per capita demand markets growth driven by Volume (tons) Volume (tons) Volume (tons) $, thousands Share of the Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) Value ($, Value ($, total (%) (%) China 5,322 56.73 3,509 1.52 34.60 2.57 38.06 137 90 2,025 1,335 Russian 1,640 17.48 4,446 0.37 9.27 −1.64 7.48 −27 −73 123 333 Federation Ukraine 734 7.83 1,286 0.57 25.86 −7.60 16.29 −56 −98 120 209 Georgia 552 5.89 518 1.07 15.19 −3.74 10.89 −21 −19 60 56 Azerbaijan 427 4.56 396 1.08 5.39 7.94 13.76 34 31 59 54 Netherlands 207 2.21 61 3.38 8.46 2.29 10.95 5 1 23 7 Germany 179 1.91 31 5.75 8.16 0.01 8.17 0 0 15 3 Hungary 89 0.95 52 1.70 17.41 −3.80 12.94 −3 −2 12 7 Lithuania 78 0.83 92 0.84 17.22 −11.30 3.97 −9 −10 3 4 Uzbekistan 35 0.37 54 0.64 28.06 15.22 47.55 5 8 17 26 Rest of the 118 1.25 64 1.83 world World 9,381 100.00 10,509 0.89 22.76 65 −71 2,455 2,034 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices—see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). Population projections are from the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). The income elasticity for freshwater and diadromous fishes is used as a proxy for income elasticity for this product. 92 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE D3: INTERNATIONAL MARKET POTENTIAL FOR KAZAKHSTAN’S EXPORT OF CAVIAR SUBSTITUTES FROM FISH EGGS (HS160432) Kazakhstan’s export of caviar Growth potential for Kazakhstan’s export to each market: substitutes from fish eggs increase or decrease during 2018-2030 (HS160432) to each market, 2018 Both population Value Population only and income income growth (%) Per capita demand Top 10 growth growth driven by markets Volume (tons) Total demand $, thousands Share of the Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) growth (%) growth (%) Population Value ($, Value ($, total (%) Volume Volume (tons) (tons) Russian 8,157.00 99.91 2,051.00 3.98 9.27 −1.64 7.48 −134.00 −34.00 610.00 153.00 Federation Kyrgyz 7.19 0.09 1.06 6.76 7.19 18.12 26.61 1.30 0.19 1.91 0.28 Republic World 8,164.00 100.00 2,052.00 3.98 7.50 −132.00 −33.00 612.00 154.00 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices—see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). Population projections are from the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). The income elasticity for freshwater and diadromous fishes is used as a proxy for income elasticity for this product. TABLE D4: INTERNATIONAL MARKET POTENTIAL FOR KAZAKHSTAN’S EXPORT OF FRESH / CHILLED FISH FILLETS NEI (HS030449) Kazakhstan’s export of fresh/ Growth potential for Kazakhstan’s export to each market: chilled fish fillets nei (HS030449) increase or decrease during 2018-2030 to each market, 2018 Both population growth Total demand growth Value Population only and income income growth (%) Top 10 Per capita demand growth growth driven by markets Volume (tons) $, thousands Share of the Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) Population Value ($, Value ($, total (%) Volume Volume (tons) (tons) (%) (%) Austria 1,235 50.07 149 8.29 12.39 4.03 16.93 50.00 6.010 209.00 25.00 Germany 889 36.02 119 7.48 11.87 0.58 12.52 5.131 0.686 111.00 15.00 Russian 300 12.16 51 5.93 12.15 −1.50 10.46 −4.498 −0.759 31.00 5.29 Federation Estonia 37 1.49 5 7.99 23.97 −2.99 20.27 −1.102 −0.138 7.00 0.94 Poland 5 0.19 1 3.95 20.86 −2.66 17.65 −0.126 −0.032 0.840 0.21 Czechia 1 0.04 0 9.43 20.27 0.98 21.44 0.009 0.001 0.200 0.02 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 93 TABLE D.4 Kazakhstan’s export of fresh/ Growth potential for Kazakhstan’s export to each market: chilled fish fillets nei (HS030449) increase or decrease during 2018-2030 to each market, 2018 Both population growth Total demand growth Value Population only and income income growth (%) Top 10 Per capita demand growth growth driven by markets Volume (tons) $, thousands Share of the Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) Population Value ($, Value ($, total (%) Volume Volume (tons) (tons) (%) (%) Kuwait 1 0.02 0 13.85 7.83 17.04 26.20 0.092 0.007 0.141 0.01 World 2,467 100.00 324 7.60 14.48 49.00 6.00 360.00 47.00 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices—see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). Population projections are from the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). The income elasticity for freshwater and diadromous fishes is used as a proxy for income elasticity for this product. TABLE D5: INTERNATIONAL MARKET POTENTIAL FOR KAZAKHSTAN’S EXPORT OF FROZEN CARP (HS030325) Kazakhstan’s export of frozen carp Growth potential for Kazakhstan’s export to each market: (HS030325) to each market, 2018 increase or decrease during 2018–2030 Both population income growth (%) Per capita demand Value Population only and income Population growth growth driven by Top 10 growth Volume (tons) markets Total demand Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) growth (%) Value ($, Value ($, Share of the total $, thou- Volume Volume sands (tons) (tons) (%) (%) China 235 31.78 161 1.45 44.01 3.05 48.40 7.00 5.00 114.00 78.00 Uzbekistan 214 28.91 360 0.59 21.40 17.08 42.13 36.00 62.00 90.00 152.00 Russian 163 22.05 262 0.62 12.15 −1.50 10.46 −2.00 −4.00 17.00 27.00 Federation Georgia 78 10.57 102 0.77 18.23 −3.88 13.65 −3.00 −4.00 11.00 14.00 Romania 23 3.14 15 1.55 28.75 −6.86 19.92 −2.00 −1.00 5.00 3.00 Azerbaijan 16 2.17 20 0.80 9.78 9.08 19.75 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 Ukraine 8 1.08 20 0.40 35.80 −8.10 24.80 −1.00 −2.00 2.00 5.00 Netherlands 2 0.30 2 1.23 13.31 2.52 16.17 0.06 0.05 0.36 0.29 World 739 100.00 942 0.78 31.38 37.00 58.00 241.00 283.00 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices—see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). Population projections are from the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). The income elasticity for freshwater and diadromous fishes is used as a proxy for income elasticity for this product. 94 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE D6: IMPORT OF ALL TROUT PRODUCTS IN THE TOP 20 MARKETS FOR KAZAKHSTAN’S FISHERIES EXPORT World export of all trout products to Market growth potential from 2018 to 2030 each market, 2018 Population growth Both population and Value Top 20 markets only income growth + selected trade Volume (tons) unions Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) total world thousands export (%) Value ($, Value ($, Share of Volume Volume (tons) (tons) $, 1. Poland 69,273 3.36 13,321 5.20 −1,785 −343 8,241 1,585 2. Germany 320,456 15.54 38,234 8.38 43 5 26,197 3,126 3. Russian 122,294 5.93 18,526 6.60 −2,003 −303 9,153 1,387 Federation 4. Netherlands 34,514 1.67 4,802 7.19 791 110 3,778 526 5. Lithuania 21,119 1.02 3,229 6.54 −2,386 −365 839 128 6. China 30,917 1.50 4,157 7.44 795 107 11,767 1,582 7. Austria 52,811 2.56 7,595 6.95 1,689 243 6,118 880 8. United States 186,886 9.06 16,483 11.34 12,881 1,136 32,241 2,844 of America 9. Czech Republic 12,302 0.60 2,268 5.42 91 17 1,743 321 10. Kyrgyz Republic 72 0.00 210 0.34 13 38 19 56 11. Switzerland 27,543 1.34 2,258 12.20 2,131 175 5,028 412 12. Ukraine 25,479 1.24 4,564 5.58 −1,937 −347 4,151 743 13. Canada 60,028 2.91 5,298 11.14 6,087 537 13,278 1,172 14. Belarus 72,282 3.51 10,406 6.95 −1,436 −207 2,966 427 15. Georgia 1027 0.05 279 3.68 −38 −10 112 30 16. Azerbaijan 768 0.04 236 3.25 61 19 106 32 17. France 61,812 3.00 7,838 7.89 1,622 206 5,817 738 18. Uzbekistan 40 0.00 5 7.49 6 1 19 3 19. North Macedonia 20. Romania 19,605 0.95 4,786 4.10 −1,206 −294 2,637 644 Top 20 total 1,119,227 54.00 144,494 7.75 15,418 723 134,209 16,635 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices – see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). Population projections are from the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). The income elasticity for freshwater and diadromous fishes is used as a proxy for income elasticity for this product. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 95 TABLE D7: EXPORT MARKET STATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR LIVE FISH PRODUCTS (HS0301) FROM KAZAKHSTAN, 2018–2030 Kazakhstan’s export of live fish (HS0301) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Both Per capita demand growth Number of Population population Total demand growth (%) driven by income growth Value products only and income Population growth (%) Market growth Share of world Volume (tons) Volume (tons) Volume (tons) $, thousands Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) Effective Value ($, Value ($, total (%) Actual (%) 1. Russian 3 2.92 54 64.92 71 0.76 9.27 −1.64 7.48 −0.889 −1 4 5 Federation 2. Azerbaijan 1 1.00 24 28.69 20 1.20 5.39 7.94 13.76 2.00 2 3 3 3. Kyrgyz 1 1.00 5 6.39 196 0.03 7.19 18.12 26.61 0.968 36 1 52 Republic World 4 3.32 84 100.00 287 0.29 15.74 2.00 36 9 60 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices—see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). The income elasticity for freshwater and diadromous fishes is used for this group of products. Population projections from 2018 to 2030 are based on the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). TABLE D8: EXPORT MARKET STATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR FRESH/CHILLED FISH PRODUCTS (HS0302) FROM KAZAKHSTAN, 2018–2030 Kazakhstan’s export of fresh/chilled fish (HS0302) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Both Per capita demand growth Number of Population population Total demand growth (%) driven by income growth Value products only and income Population growth (%) Market growth Share of world Volume (tons) Volume (tons) Volume (tons) $, thousands Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) Effective Value ($, Value ($, total (%) Actual (%) 1. Russian 11 5.93 435 76.11 936 0.46 9.27 −1.64 7.48 −7.00 −15.00 33.00 70.00 Federation 2. Uzbekistan 2 1.82 56 9.75 81 0.69 28.06 15.22 47.55 8.00 12.00 26.00 39.00 3. Austria 2 1.58 50 8.78 4 14.29 8.13 3.20 11.58 2.00 0.112 6.00 0.406 96 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE D.8 Kazakhstan’s export of fresh/chilled fish (HS0302) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Both Per capita demand growth Number of Population population Total demand growth (%) driven by income growth Value products only and income Population growth (%) Market growth Share of world Volume (tons) Volume (tons) Volume (tons) $, thousands Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) Effective Value ($, Value ($, total (%) Actual (%) 4. Germany 1 1.00 28 4.99 4 7.26 8.16 0.01 8.17 0.004 0.001 2.00 0.321 5. Slovenia 1 1.00 1 0.20 0 11.38 12.28 −1.04 11.11 −0.012 −0.001 0.126 0.011 6. China 1 1.00 1 0.09 0 2.22 34.60 2.57 38.06 0.014 0.006 0.203 0.091 7. Kuwait 1 1.00 0 0.05 0 3.34 2.27 14.74 17.34 0.040 0.012 0.048 0.014 8. Czechia 1 1.00 0 0.04 0 11.60 13.33 0.74 14.17 0.002 0.00 0.033 0.003 World 13 6.64 571 100.00 1,025 0.56 11.25 3.00 −3.00 68.00 109.00 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices—see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). The income elasticity for freshwater and diadromous fishes is used for this group of products. Population projections from 2018 to 2030 are based on the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). TABLE D9: EXPORT MARKET STATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR FROZEN FISH PRODUCTS (HS0303) FROM KAZAKHSTAN, 2018–2030 Kazakhstan’s export of frozen fish (HS0303) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Both population growth driven by income Number of Value Population only and income Population growth (%) products Total demand growth growth Market Per capita demand Share of world Volume (tons) Volume (tons) Volume (tons) $, thousands Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) growth (%) Effective Value ($, Value ($, total (%) Actual (%) 1. China 4 1.25 5,604 45.09 3,707 1.51 34.60 2.57 38.06 144.00 95.00 2,133.00 1,411.00 2. Russian 13 5.36 3,162 25.44 6,761 0.47 9.27 −1.64 7.48 −52.00 −111.00 237.00 506.00 Federation 3. Ukraine 3 1.48 832 6.69 1,371 0.61 25.86 −7.60 16.29 −63.00 −104.00 135.00 223.00 4. Georgia 5 2.20 723 5.82 679 1.07 15.19 −3.74 10.89 −27.00 −25.00 79.00 74.00 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 97 TABLE D.9 Kazakhstan’s export of frozen fish (HS0303) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Both population growth driven by income Number of Value Population only and income Population growth (%) products Total demand growth growth Market Per capita demand Share of world Volume (tons) Volume (tons) Volume (tons) $, thousands Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) growth (%) Effective Value ($, Value ($, total (%) Actual (%) 5. Azerbaijan 2 1.17 443 3.57 416 1.07 5.39 7.94 13.76 35.00 33.00 61.00 57.00 6. Kyrgyz 8 1.60 359 2.89 147 2.44 7.19 18.12 26.61 65.00 27.00 96.00 39.00 Republic 7. Uzbekistan 5 2.78 316 2.54 474 0.67 28.06 15.22 47.55 48.00 72.00 150.00 225.00 8. Netherlands 3 1.11 211 1.70 63 3.33 8.46 2.29 10.95 5.00 1.00 23.00 7.00 9. Germany 4 1.37 194 1.56 34 5.75 8.16 0.01 8.17 0.026 0.005 16.00 3.00 10. Romania 3 2.12 181 1.45 43 4.17 20.89 −6.15 13.45 −11.00 −3.00 24.00 6.00 11. Lithuania 2 1.53 92 0.74 96 0.96 17.22 −11.30 3.97 −10.00 −11.00 4.00 4.00 12. Hungary 1 1.00 89 0.72 52 1.70 17.41 −3.80 12.94 −3.00 −2.00 12.00 7.00 13. Turkey 1 1.00 80 0.64 17 4.71 11.46 8.28 20.69 7.00 1.00 16.00 3.00 14. Slovakia 2 1.80 38 0.31 5 7.78 13.43 −0.91 12.40 −0.347 −0.045 5.00 0.608 15. Estonia 1 1.00 23 0.18 3 8.55 16.35 −3.25 12.57 −0.739 −0.086 3.00 0.334 16. Latvia 2 1.95 21 0.17 40 0.52 17.97 −10.80 5.22 −2.00 −4.00 1.00 2.00 17. Belarus 1 1.00 14 0.11 20 0.68 6.21 −1.99 4.10 −0.270 −0.397 0.557 0.821 18. Czechia 1 1.00 13 0.11 2 6.31 13.33 0.74 14.17 0.097 0.015 2.00 0.295 19. Tajikistan 2 1.86 13 0.10 13 0.98 8.28 26.99 37.50 3.00 3.00 5.00 5.00 20. Poland 1 1.00 8 0.07 2 4.09 14.86 −2.58 11.90 −0.215 −0.053 0.992 0.243 21. Finland 1 1.00 6 0.05 1 8.37 8.97 1.05 10.11 0.059 0.007 0.571 0.068 22. Canada 1 1.00 5 0.04 1 8.85 10.88 10.14 22.12 0.538 0.061 1.00 0.132 23. Austria 1 1.00 4 0.04 1 7.98 8.13 3.20 11.58 0.143 0.018 0.519 0.065 World 22 3.03 12,428 100.00 13,945 0.89 21.32 137.00 −27.00 3,004.00 2,575.00 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices—see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). The income elasticity for freshwater and diadromous fishes is used for this group of products. Population projections from 2018 to 2030 are based on the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). 98 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE D10: EXPORT MARKET STATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR FISH FILLETS AND OTHER FISH MEAT (HS0304) FROM KAZAKHSTAN, 2018–2030 Kazakhstan’s export of fish fillets and other fish meat (HS0304) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Number Both income growth (%) of Value Population only population and Per capita demand Population growth growth driven by Market products income growth Volume (tons) Total demand Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) growth (%) world total thousands Effective Value ($, Value ($, Share of Volume Volume Actual (tons) (tons) (%) (%) $, 1. Poland 4 1.15 21,124 26.96 2,735 7.72 14.86 −2.58 11.90 −544.00 −70.00 2,513.00 325.00 2. Germany 5 1.10 16,857 21.52 2,270 7.42 8.16 0.01 8.17 2.00 0.00 1,378.0 186.00 3. Netherlands 1 1.00 14,407 18.39 2,009 7.17 8.46 2.29 10.95 330.00 46.00 1,577.00 220.00 4. Lithuania 1 1.00 10,102 12.90 1,435 7.04 17.22 −11.30 3.97 −1,141.00 −162.00 402.00 57.00 5. Austria 14 1.80 5,469 6.98 613 8.93 8.13 3.20 11.58 175.00 20.00 634.00 71.00 6. United States 1 1.00 3,018 3.85 335 9.02 9.69 6.89 17.25 208.00 23.00 521.00 58.00 of America 7. Czechia 5 1.16 2,774 3.54 383 7.25 13.33 0.74 14.17 21.00 2.842 393.00 54.00 8. Switzerland 1 1.00 1,286 1.64 162 7.94 9.76 7.74 18.25 99.00 13.00 235.00 30.00 9. Canada 1 1.00 989 1.26 120 8.25 10.88 10.14 22.12 100.00 12.00 219.00 26.00 10. Russian 9 4.99 695 0.89 710 0.98 9.27 −1.64 7.48 −11.00 −12.00 52.00 53.00 Federation 11. France 2 1.83 436 0.56 78 5.58 6.61 2.62 9.41 11.00 2.00 41.00 7.00 12. North 1 1.00 397 0.51 335 1.19 14.11 −1.55 12.35 −6.00 −5.00 49.00 41.00 Macedonia 13. China 5 4.68 184 0.24 139 1.32 34.60 2.57 38.06 5.00 4.00 70.00 53.00 14. Estonia 3 2.28 157 0.20 21 7.39 16.35 −3.25 12.57 −5.00 −0.689 20.00 3.00 15. Denmark 1 1.00 109 0.14 15 7.22 9.13 4.34 13.87 5.00 0.658 15.00 2.00 16. Romania 3 1.99 75 0.10 13 5.58 20.89 −6.15 13.45 −5.00 −0.830 10.00 2.00 17. Slovakia 3 2.14 73 0.09 8 8.68 13.43 −0.91 12.40 −0.667 −0.077 9.095 1.00 18. Turkey 2 1.01 63 0.08 19 3.36 11.46 8.28 20.69 5.00 2.00 13.00 4.00 19. Serbia 2 1.47 49 0.06 5 9.76 20.82 −6.27 13.24 −3.00 −0.317 7.00 0.670 20. Slovenia 2 1.50 14 0.02 1 9.56 12.28 −1.04 11.11 −0.148 −0.015 2.00 0.165 21. Moldova 1 1.00 13 0.02 7 1.99 16.61 −4.10 11.83 −0.538 −0.271 2.00 0.782 22. Tajikistan 5 2.99 11 0.01 3 3.82 8.28 26.99 37.50 3.00 0.788 4.00 1.00 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 99 TABLE D.10 Kazakhstan’s export of fish fillets and other fish meat (HS0304) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Number Both income growth (%) of Value Population only population and Per capita demand Population growth growth driven by Market products income growth Volume (tons) Total demand Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) growth (%) world total thousands Effective Value ($, Value ($, Share of Volume Volume Actual (tons) (tons) (%) (%) $, 23. Kyrgyz 4 1.99 11 0.01 3 3.30 7.19 18.12 26.61 2.00 0.605 3.00 0.889 Republic 24. Georgia 2 2.00 11 0.01 4 2.75 15.19 −3.74 10.89 −0.411 −0.150 1.00 0.436 25. Latvia 1 1.00 8 0.01 2 4.61 17.97 −10.80 5.22 −0.916 −0.199 0.443 0.096 26. Finland 1 1.00 5 0.01 1 8.83 8.97 1.05 10.11 0.052 0.006 0.500 0.057 27. Norway 1 1.00 1 0.00 0 10.07 1.37 10.08 11.58 0.138 0.014 0.159 0.016 28. Luxembourg 1 1.00 1 0.00 0 16.88 8.67 14.25 24.15 0.103 0.006 0.175 0.010 World 25 1.25 78,340 100.00 11,427 6.86 10.45 −752.00 −126.00 8,169.001,198.00 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices—see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). The income elasticity for freshwater and diadromous fishes is used for this group of products. Population projections from 2018 to 2030 are based on the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). TABLE D11: EXPORT MARKET STATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR DRIED / SALTED / SMOKED / OFFAL PRODUCTS (HS0305) FROM KAZAKHSTAN, 2018–2030 Kazakhstan’s export of dried / salted / smoked / offal products (HS0305) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Both Number population Population growth (%) Total demand growth of Value Population only and income income growth (%) Per capita demand Market products growth growth driven by Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) thousands world total Effective Value ($, Value ($, Share of Volume Volume Actual (tons) (tons) (%) (%) $, 1. Russian 7 2.36 1,778 59.04 1,068 1.66 9.27 −1.64 7.48 −29.00 −17.00 133.00 80.00 Federation 2. Ukraine 3 2.24 393 13.07 522 0.75 25.86 −7.60 16.29 −30.00 −40.00 64.00 85.00 3. Germany 3 2.03 345 11.47 47 7.41 8.16 0.01 8.17 0.047 0.006 28.00 4.00 4. Belarus 1 1.00 199 6.61 321 0.62 6.21 −1.99 4.10 −4.00 −6.00 8.00 13.00 100 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE D.11 Kazakhstan’s export of dried / salted / smoked / offal products (HS0305) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Both Number population Population growth (%) Total demand growth of Value Population only and income income growth (%) Per capita demand Market products growth growth driven by Volume (tons) Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) thousands world total Effective Value ($, Value ($, Share of Volume Volume Actual (tons) (tons) (%) (%) $, 5. Latvia 1 1.00 125 4.14 26 4.89 17.97 −10.80 5.22 −13.00 −3.00 7.00 1.00 6. Netherlands 2 1.46 52 1.74 14 3.87 8.46 2.29 10.95 1.00 0.311 6.00 1.00 7. Bulgaria 1 1.00 43 1.41 11 4.05 19.08 −9.00 8.36 −4.00 −0.945 4.00 0.877 8. Georgia 1 1.00 41 1.36 17 2.38 15.19 −3.74 10.89 −2.00 −0.643 4.00 2.00 9. Kyrgyz 5 3.59 32 1.06 25 1.28 7.19 18.12 26.61 6.00 5.00 9.00 7.00 Republic 10. Lithuania 1 1.00 3 0.10 1 4.82 17.22 −11.30 3.97 −0.327 −0.068 0.115 0.024 World 12 3.00 3,011 100.00 2,050 1.47 12.22 −2.79 9.10 −75.00 −63.00 262.00 194.00 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices—see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). The income elasticity for freshwater and diadromous fishes is used for this group of products. Population projections from 2018 to 2030 are based on the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). TABLE D12: EXPORT MARKET STATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR PREPARED/PRESERVED FISH, INCLUDING CAVIAR AND CAVIAR SUBSTITUTES FROM FISH EGGS (HS1604) FROM KAZAKHSTAN, 2018–2030 Kazakhstan’s export of prepared/preserved fish, including caviar and caviar substitutes from fish eggs (HS1604) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Number Both population income growth (%) Per capita demand of Value Population only and income Population growth Market growth driven by products growth Volume (tons) Total demand Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) growth (%) world total thousands Effective Value ($, Value ($, Share of Volume Volume Actual (tons) (tons) (%) (%) $, 1. Russian 4 1.75 10,068 85.29 2,593 3.88 9.27 −1.64 7.48 −165.00 −42.00 754.00 194.00 Federation 2. Kyrgyz 7 3.47 905 7.67 409 2.21 7.19 18.12 26.61 164.00 74.00 241.00 109.00 Republic 3. Austria 2 1.62 769 6.52 91 8.43 8.13 3.20 11.58 25.00 3.00 89.00 11.00 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 101 TABLE D.12 Kazakhstan’s export of prepared/preserved fish, including caviar and caviar substitutes from fish eggs (HS1604) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Number Both population income growth (%) Per capita demand of Value Population only and income Population growth Market growth driven by products growth Volume (tons) Total demand Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) growth (%) world total thousands Effective Value ($, Value ($, Share of Volume Volume Actual (tons) (tons) (%) (%) $, 4. Uzbekistan 3 1.41 44 0.37 31 1.43 28.06 15.22 47.55 7.00 5.00 21.00 15.00 5. Switzerland 1 1.00 9 0.08 1 8.65 9.76 7.74 18.25 0.696 0.080 2.00 0.190 6. Tajikistan 1 1.00 6 0.05 2 3.58 8.28 26.99 37.50 2.00 0.446 2.00 0.620 7. Netherlands 1 1.00 3 0.03 1 5.13 8.46 2.29 10.95 0.071 0.014 0.337 0.066 8. Mongolia 1 1.00 0 0.00 0 4.79 14.31 17.22 33.99 0.079 0.017 0.156 0.033 World 8 3.00 11,805 100.00 3,128 3.77 9.11 0.78 9.96 33.00 40.00 1,109.00 329.00 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices – see a detailed discussion of the §methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). The income elasticity for freshwater and diadromous fishes is used for this group of products. Population projections from 2018 to 2030 are based on the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). TABLE D13: EXPORT MARKET STATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR SHELLFISH PRODUCTS (HS0306 + HS0307 + HS0308 + HS1605) FROM KAZAKHSTAN, 2018–2030 Kazakhstan’s export of shellfish products (HS0306 + HS0307 + HS0308 + HS1605) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Both Number of Population population Per capita demand growth Value Total demand growth (%) driven by income growth products only and income Population growth (%) Market growth Share of world Volume (tons) Volume (tons) Volume (tons) $, thousands Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) Effective Value ($, Value ($, total (%) Actual (%) 1. Russian 5 1.33 368 66.50 160 2.31 20.31 −1.64 18.34 −6.00 −3.00 68.00 29.00 Federation 2. Kyrgyz 13 5.27 177 31.95 95 1.86 18.32 18.12 39.76 32.00 17.00 70.00 38.00 Republic 3. Austria 2 1.09 7 1.19 1 5.16 20.97 3.20 24.83 0.210 0.041 2.00 0.316 4. Estonia 1 1.00 1 0.22 0 10.03 48.97 −3.25 44.13 −0.040 −0.004 0.545 0.054 102 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE D.13 Kazakhstan’s export of shellfish products (HS0306 + HS0307 + HS0308 + HS1605) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Both Number of Population population Per capita demand growth Value Total demand growth (%) driven by income growth products only and income Population growth (%) Market growth Share of world Volume (tons) Volume (tons) Volume (tons) $, thousands Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) Effective Value ($, Value ($, total (%) Actual (%) 5. Tajikistan 1 1.00 1 0.14 0 8.43 21.25 26.99 53.98 0.209 0.025 0.419 0.050 6. China 1 1.00 0 0.00 0 2.56 86.68 2.57 91.48 0.001 0.00 0.021 0.008 World 17 3.00 554 100.00 256 2.16 19.58 5.25 25.86 26.00 15.00 141.00 68.00 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices—see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). The income elasticity for crustaceans is used for this group of products. Population projections from 2018 to 2030 are based on the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). TABLE D14: EXPORT MARKET STATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR SEAWEEDS AND SEAWEED PRODUCTS (HS121221 + HS121229 + HS130231) FROM KAZAKHSTAN, 2018–2030 Kazakhstan’s export of seaweed and seaweed products (HS121221 + HS121229 + HS130231) to each market Baseline in 2018 Growth potential between 2018 and 2030 Both Total demand growth (%) growth driven by income Number of Population population Population growth (%) Value Market products only and income Per capita demand growth Volume (tons) $, thousands Price ($/kg) thousands) thousands) growth (%) world total Effective Value ($, Value ($, Share of Volume Volume Actual (tons) (tons) (%) 1. Russian 2 1.01 476 99.53 90 5.30 20.31 −1.64 18.34 −8.00 −1.00 87 16 Federation 2. Uzbekistan 1 1.00 2 0.47 3 0.90 82.10 15.22 109.81 0.342 0.380 2 3 World 2 1.01 478 100.00 92 5.18 21.46 −1.37 19.79 −7.00 −1.00 90 19 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices – see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). The income elasticity for crustaceans is used for this group of products. Population projections from 2018 to 2030 are based on the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 103 TABLE D15: EXPORT MARKET STATUS FOR NON-FOOD FISHERIES PRODUCTS (HS050800 + HS051191 + HS230120) FROM KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 Kazakhstan’s export of non-food fisheries products (HS050800 + HS051191 + HS230120) to each market, 2018 Market Number of products Value Volume Share of world Price ($/kg) Actual Effective $, thousands (tons) total (%) 1. China 1 1.00 3,368 78.56 1,652 2.04 2. Belarus 2 1.04 595 13.87 907 0.66 3. Russian Federation 2 1.99 233 5.43 267 0.87 4. Germany 1 1.00 91 2.12 29 3.19 5. Uzbekistan 1 1.00 1 0.01 20 0.03 World 3 1.57 4,288 100.00 2,875 1.49 Data source: UN Comtrade (2020); see Section 4.1 for the data processing methodology. Note: The growth potential of a country’s demand for a seafood item is measured by the potential increase in the country’s demand for the seafood item driven by its population and income growth, given constant seafood prices—see a detailed discussion of the methodology in Cai and Leung 2017 (http://www.fao.org/3/a-i7623e.pdf). The income elasticity for crustaceans is used for this group of products. Population projections from 2018 to 2030 are based on the UN World Population Prospects 2019. The projections of per capita GDP between 2018 and 2024 are from the IMF WEO database (October 2019). 104 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS ANNEX E: Production of Major Fish Species Groups Carps (cyprinids) aquaculture production, whereas smaller and/ Carps are the largest species group accounting or local carp species are recorded as capture for more than half of the total fishery production fisheries production. in Kazakhstan. Major carp producing regions The prices of different carp species varied from include Atyrau, East Kazakhstan, Turkistan, KZT 46/kg for crucian carp (Carassius sp.) to Almaty, and Kyzylorda, and capture fisheries is KZT 380/kg for farmed common carp, and the main source of carp production in nearly all there appeared no significant seasonal variation of them except for Turkistan (Table E1). in the prices (Table E1). However, the prices Most of the production came from capture of carp species vary greatly across different fisheries and extensive/pasture aquaculture regions. Carp price tends to be relatively low (that is, relying on natural productivity instead in places with ample supply (for example, main of artificial feed to grow the fish) in large water carp producing regions such as Atyrau and East bodies. Extensive/pasture aquaculture can also Kazakhstan or a major market for carp products be categorized as culture-based fisheries. such as Almaty) and relatively high in regions Kazakhstan farmers usually report relatively with little carp production (for example, West large-size European or Chinese carps from Kazakhstan) (Table E2). TABLE E1: FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION OF CARP SPECIES IN KAZAKHSTAN Production in 2018 Production in 2019 Total Total Carp species Capture Capture Aquaculture Aquaculture fisheries Share of fisheries Share of (tons) Tons (tons) Tons (tons) total (%) (tons) total (%) European minnows 15,573 15,573 67.2 19,617 19,617 67.9 (Leuciscinae) Freshwater bream 11,580 11,580 50.0 15,255 15,255 52.8 (Abramis brama) Bream nautical 2,489 2,489 10.7 2,619 2,619 9.1 (Abramis brama) Asp (Leuciscus 948 948 4.1 1,027 1,027 3.6 aspius) Sichel 483 483 2.1 600 600 2.1 (Pelecus cultratus) White bream 73 73 0.3 117 117 0.4 (Blicca bjoerkna) Common carp aka 1,870 2,784 4,653 20.1 1,990 3,480 5,470 18.9 European carp Cyprinus carpio 1,646 982 2,628 11.3 1,758 1,580 3,338 11.6 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 105 TABLE E.1 Production in 2018 Production in 2019 Total Total Carp species Capture Capture Aquaculture Aquaculture fisheries Share of fisheries Share of (tons) Tons (tons) Tons (tons) total (%) (tons) total (%) Cyprinus carpio 224 1,802 2,025 8.7 232 1,900 2,132 7.4 carpio Asian carps 2,267 681 2,948 12.7 3,284 521 3,805 13.2 Crucian carp 2,170 1 2,170 9.4 3,157 2 3,159 10.9 (Carassius sp.) Silver carp (Hypophthal- 76 334 409 1.8 92 230 322 1.1 michthys molitrix) White amur (Ctenopha- 22 346 368 1.6 35 288 323 1.1 ryngodon idella) All carp species 19,710 3464 23,174 100.0 24,891 4001 28,892 100.0 Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. For carp species, large-size fish tend to be more Kazakhstan, Akmola, Kostanay, or West Kazakhstan) expensive. For example, large-size crucian carp is more expensive than small-size crucian carp in (over 1 kg) in northern reservoirs (for example, North the south (for example, Almaty or Turkestan). TABLE E2: FIRST-SALE PRICE OF CARP PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2020 First-sale price (KZT/kg) Carp species Average 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3 rd Quarter KZT/kg $/kg Carp (aquaculture) 387 376 376 380 0.90 Carp (wild) 343 350 354 349 0.83 Silver carp 261 261 264 262 0.62 Sazan (wild carp) 136 134 133 134 0.32 Freshwater bream 118 117 115 117 0.28 Asp 84 84 86 85 0.20 Bream nautical 56 56 56 56 0.13 Carassius sp. 46 46 46 46 0.11 Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. Note: $1 = KZT 420. Prices for products of fishing and aquaculture are prices of products of fishing and aquaculture excluding value-added tax and expenses on transportation and loading and unloading operations. 1. Fish caught in natural reservoirs with signs of cultivated carp. 2. Fish caught in natural reservoirs with ‘wild’ pheno-type, which do not show signs of cultivated carp. 3. Bream caught in brackish water (for example, Caspian Sea). 106 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS The prices of carp species may reflect local from low-quality water. Most of the production taste and/or perception. For example, common of carp species in Kazakhstan is for domestic carp from the brackish water (8 ppm) in Lake consumption. The average 5.71 kg consumption Alakol is considered the most delicious. While of carp species accounted for over 40% of sazan (wild carp) is generally more expensive Kazakhstan’s fish consumption in 2018, and than other carp species, the dark color and nearly all the carp consumption was supplied small form of sazan (wild carp) in some places by domestic production with few imported leads to the perception of it being harvested products. TABLE E3: SUBNATIONAL VARIATION OF THE FIRST-SALE PRICES OF CARP SPECIES IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2020 Sazan (wild carp) Freshwater bream (Abramis brama) Crucian carp (Carassius sp.) First-sale price (KZT/kg) First-sale price (KZT/kg) First-sale price (KZT/kg) West Kazakhstan 618 Zhambyl 251 West Kazakhstan 298 Zhambyl 511 West Kazakhstan 192 Akmola 281 Mangystau 499 Akmola 183 Zhambyl 230 Kostanay 337 Kostanay 132 Kostanay 199 Turkistan 294 Kyzylorda 110 North Kazakhstan 139 Kyzylorda 290 Turkistan 90 Kyzylorda 131 Karagandy 238 Almaty 61 East Kazakhstan 84 Almaty 228 Atyrau 58 Turkistan 81 East Kazakhstan 139 East Kazakhstan 42 Almaty 64 Atyrau 130 Karagandy 35 Karagandy 63     Atyrau 44 Kazakhstan 134 Kazakhstan 117 Kazakhstan 46 Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. According to the price list of several online fish example, vacuum packed or not). The prices stores, the retail prices of carp products are are much higher than the first-sale prices. In KZT 500–750/kg for whole carp, KZT 350–550/ Almaty, chilled whole carp was recently sold kg for whole crucian carp, KZT 1,000–1,700/ at KZT 1,200/kg ($2.86/kg) in bazaar and KZT kg for carp fillet, KZT 500/kg for crucian carp 1,900/kg ($4.52/kg) in supermarket; the prices fillet, KZT 660–1,250/kg for dried crucian carp, were at least three times of the first-sale carp and KZT 2,400–2900/kg for smoked silver carp prices. Further investigations are needed to (Table E4) The variations reflect differences understand factors (for example, logistic costs, in species, product form (whole, fillet, dried, market power, and so on) causing the high smoked, and so on), and packaging (for mark-up. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 107 TABLE E4: RETAIL PRICES OF THE PRODUCTS OF CARP SPECIES IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2020 Retail price from online store Product Source KZT/kg $/kg Fresh/chilled/frozen whole fish Carp, whole 500 1.19 Khamit Carp, whole, vacuum packed 750 1.79 Khamit Sazan (wild carp), gutted, head on 1,000 2.38 Fish House Crucian carp, whole 350 0.83 Khamit Crucian carp, whole, vacuum packed 550 1.31 Khamit Crucian carp, gutted, head off 725 1.73 RYBPROM Fillets Sazan (wild carp), fillet 1,350 3.21 Fish House Carp, fillet 1,700 4.05 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Carp, fillet 1,000 2.38 Khamit Carp, fillet, vacuum packed 1,250 2.98 Khamit Crucian carp, fillet 500 1.19 Khamit Dried or smoked Common carp, air-dried, sliced 660 1.57 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Crucian carp, air-dried, sliced 660 1.57 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Crucian carp, air-dried, gutted 1,050 2.50 RYBPROM Crucian carp, dried, sliced 1,250 2.98 Sapa-M Crucian carp, cold-smoked, sliced 1,200 2.86 Sapa-M Silver carp, smoked, whole or sliced 2,400 5.71 Khamit Silver carp, smoked, whole or sliced, vacuum 2,900 6.90 Khamit packed Data source: Various online sources. In 2018, Kazakhstan exported 12,700 tons kg) to China (see Chapter IV). Most of the (product weight; $1.52/kg average price) of products tend to be carp species. Kazakhstan frozen whole carp and roach including 4,446 also exported 942 tons ($0.89/kg) frozen whole tons ($0.37/kg) to Russia and 3,509 tons ($1.52/ carp to nearby countries (Table E5). 108 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE E5: KAZAKHSTAN’S EXPORT OF FROZEN WHOLE CARP (HS030325), 2018 Volume Value Exporter: Kazakhstan Value ($, Price ($/kg) Tons Share (%) Share (%) thousands) World 942 100.00 739 100 0.78 Uzbekistan 360 38.22 214 29 0.59 Russian Federation 262 27.83 163 22 0.62 China 161 17.13 235 32 1.45 Georgia 102 10.79 78 11 0.77 Azerbaijan 20 2.12 16 2 0.80 Ukraine 20 2.12 8 1 0.40 Romania 15 1.59 23 3 1.55 Netherlands 2 0.19 2 0 1.23 Data source: UN Comtrade. Significant increase in demand is expected value-added products. In addition to traditional for the carp species dried/smoked carps, Kazakhstan may explore new product forms (surimi or canned products) The KFDP intends to increase the aquaculture for carp species. In the short term, the effort production of carp species to 79,706 tons in in developing new products for carp species 2030, which is 76,242 tons higher than the may be focused on export markets where the 3,464 tons production in 2018. According to the products are well established. In the long run, estimation (see Chapter IV), the income- and the dietary habits of domestic consumers can population-driven domestic and export market be changed by new cooking styles or recipes. growth potential for carp species between 2018 and 2030 is 30,379 tons (live weight), including In China, the fingerlings of low-value carp 28,216 tons of domestic growth potential and species (for example, silver carp or crucian 2,163 tons of export market potential. The carp) are used as live feed to culture high- 30,379 tons growth potential is significantly value carnivore species such as mandarin lower compared to the 76,242 tons of production fish, also known as Chinese perch (Siniperca growth for carp species targeted in the KFDP. chuatsi). Similarly, the fingerlings of low-value Even with substantial efforts to increase carp species can be used as feed to culture the demand for carp species in Kazakhstan, high-value species (for example, sturgeon and reaching the target is unlikely. potentially pikeperch in the future). As carps are relatively low-value fish, there tends Properly increasing carp production capacity to be limited room for increasing the demand At present, most of the production of carp for carp species through lowering price. Yet, species in Kazakhstan are from wild harvest or the demand for carp may be increased through extensive/pasture aquaculture. The productivity CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 109 of such extensive production systems can be in 2019, and the production primarily comprised improved through good fisheries management pikeperch (Sander lucioperca), followed by and more efficient stock enhancement Northern pike, also known as freshwater pike operations. Yet, this may not be enough, and (Esox lucius), and European perch (Perca semi-intensive or intensive carp farming systems fluviatilis) with a trivial amount of Balkhash are needed to significantly increase production. perch (Perca schrenkii) (Table E6). Virtually all However, any substantial investment in new carp the perch/pike/pikeperch production came from farming systems should be based on a rigorous capture fisheries. While 1,500 tons of pikeperch assessment of market potential and economic aquaculture production appears for the first viability. time in the national statistics, it is believed that Actions to increase the technical and economic the production may be actually from capture performance of the production of carp species fisheries since there are no pikeperch farming in Kazakhstan may include (a) rehabilitation/ operations in Kazakhstan. restoration of existing pond aquaculture Major producing regions of pike, perch, and systems, (b) genetic improvement programs pikeperch include (a) Turkistan that accounted to increase the growth performance of carp for 71% of pikeperch production, (b) East species, and (c) capacity building to increase Kazakhstan that accounted for 35% of northern the technical and economic performance of the pike production and 48.9% of European perch cultivation of carp species. production, (c) Atyrau that accounted for Perch, pike, and pikeperch 45.6% of European perch production; and (d) Kazakhstan produced 6,696 tons of pike, perch, Kyzylorda that accounted for 15.7% of pikeperch and pikeperch in 2018, increasing to 9,472 tons production (Table E7). TABLE E6: PRODUCTION OF PIKE, PERCH, AND PIKEPERCH IN KAZAKHSTAN Total fishery production Total fishery production in 2018 (tons) in 2019 (tons) Species Capture Capture Aquaculture Total Aquaculture Total fisheries fisheries Pike, perch, and pikeperch 6,647 49 6,696 7,924 1,548 9,472 Pikeperch 5,131 5,131 6,003 1,500 7,503 (Sander lucioperca) Northern pike 798 798 1,025 1,025 (Esox lucius) European perch 717 49 767 890 48 938 (Perca fluviatilis) Balkhash perch 0 5 5 (Perca schrenkii) Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. 110 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE E7: SUBNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF PIKE, PERCH, AND PIKEPERCH PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2019 Pike, perch, and Pikeperch Pike Perch Balkhash perch pikeperch Region Share Share Share Share Share Tons Tons Tons Tons Tons (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Kazakhstan 6,003 100.0 1,025 100.0 890 100.0 5 100.0 7,924 100.0 Turkistan 4,265 71.0 2 0.1 0 - — 4,266 53.8 East Kazakhstan 772 12.9 359 35.0 525 58.9 — 1,656 20.9 Atyrau 628 10.5 468 45.6 36 4.0 — 1,132 14.3 Kyzylorda 944 15.7 45 4.4 43 4.8 — 1,032 13.0 Almaty 644 10.7 0 — 77 8.7 — 721 9.1 Zhambyl 126 2.1 1 0.1 0 0.0 5 100.0 132 1.7 Akmola 18 0.3 31 3.0 74 8.3 — 123 1.6 Nord Kazakhstan 12 0.2 32 3.1 74 8.3 — 118 1.5 Karagandy 41 0.7 33 3.2 36 4.1 — 110 1.4 Aktobe 2 0.0 21 2.1 37 4.1 — 61 0.8 Mangystau 45 0.7 0 — 0 — — 45 0.6 West Kazakhstan 7 0.1 14 1.4 24 2.7 — 44 0.6 Kostanay 0 - 16 1.5 10 1.2 — 26 0.3 Pavlodar 1 0.0 4 0.3 3 0.3 — 7 0.1 Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. In 2020, the average first-sale prices of indicates the need to diversify pikeperch pikeperch, northern pike, and European perch export markets in the long run. China could in Kazakhstan were, respectively, KZT 175/ be a potential market since perch-like fishes kg, KZT 335/kg, and KZT 191/kg (Table E8). are generally favored by Chinese consumers. The prices were much lower than the prices in Similar to carp species, the prices of pikeperch, 2019 (KZT 481/kg, KZT 507/kg, and KZT 270/ pike, and perch had not much seasonal variation kg, respectively), which may primarily reflect but varied significantly across regions. the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on fish The retail prices of pike/perch/pikeperch export. Pikeperch (as the major export product) products (Table E9) are much higher than the appeared to be affected the most. The incident, first-sale prices. The information indicates that, perhaps a transitory shock notwithstanding, in the domestic market of Kazakhstan, CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 111 (a) The price of pikeperch fillets varied from KZT expensive than the fillets of northern pike 1,000/kg ($2.38/kg) to KZT 2,400/kg ($5.71/ (KZT 1,340–1,450/kg) or European perch kg). Large-size fillets are more expensive (KZT 600–1,000/kg); and than smaller fillets. Vacuum-packed fillets (c) While pikeperch products comprised mostly are more expensive than those with no such fillets, perch and pike sold in the domestic packaging; market appear to be mostly dried or smoked (b) Pikeperch fillets appeared to be more products. TABLE E8: FIRST-SALE PRICES OF PIKE, PERCH, AND PIKEPERCH IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2020 Annual average 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3 rd Quarter Region (KZT/kg) (KZT/kg) (KZT/kg) KZT/kg $/kg Pikeperch Kazakhstan 178 173 173 175 0.42 Kyzylorda 658 665 672 665 1.58 Zhambyl 615 615 645 625 1.49 West Kazakhstan 590 590 590 590 1.40 Mangystau 576 577 595 582 1.39 Almaty 408 408 408 408 0.97 East Kazakhstan 397 397 412 402 0.96 Karagandy 377 377 377 377 0.90 Turkistan 268 268 287 274 0.65 Atyrau 171 166 166 168 0.40 Northern pike Kazakhstan 320 343 343 335 0.80 West Kazakhstan 445 482 482 470 1.12 Akmola 376 402 402 393 0.94 Kostanay 343 341 341 341 0.81 Karagandy 299 299 299 299 0.71 North Kazakhstan 241 241 241 241 0.57 East Kazakhstan 140 140 142 141 0.34 Kyzylorda 136 138 138 137 0.33 Atyrau 106 106 106 106 0.25 European perch Kazakhstan 193 189 191 191 0.45 112 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE E.8 Annual average 1st Quarter 2nd Quarter 3 rd Quarter Region (KZT/kg) (KZT/kg) (KZT/kg) KZT/kg $/kg Akmola 213 215 215 214 0.51 West Kazakhstan 202 198 198 200 0.48 North Kazakhstan 145 146 145 146 0.35 East Kazakhstan 140 140 149 143 0.34 Kostanay 131 131 131 131 0.31 Almaty 100 100 100 100 0.24 Karagandy 82 82 82 82 0.20 Atyrau 68 68 68 68 0.16 Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. TABLE E9: RETAIL PRICES OF PIKE / PERCH / PIKEPERCH PRODUCTS IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2020 Retail price from online stores Species Source KZT/kg $/kg Pikeperch Whole fish Pikeperch, whole, gutted, head off 1,000 2.38 RYBPROM Pikeperch, whole, gutted, head on 1,600 3.81 Fish house Fillet Pikeperch, fillet, 120-250 g 1,880 4.48 Fish house Pikeperch, fillet, extra-large standard 1,600 3.81 Fish house Pikeperch, fillet, large standard 1,500 3.57 Fish house Pikeperch, fillet, medium standard 1,350 3.21 Fish house Pikeperch, fillet, small standard 1,000 2.38 Fish house Pikeperch, fillet (large), vacuum packed 2,200 5.24 Khamit Pikeperch, fillet (large) 1,600 3.81 Khamit Pikeperch, fillet (small and medium), 1,900 4.52 Khamit vacuum packed Pikeperch, fillet (small and medium) 1,400 3.33 Khamit Pikeperch, fillet, > 230 g 2,400 5.71 RYBPROM Pikeperch, fillet, 120 g/300 g 1,950 4.64 RYBPROM Pikeperch, fillet, with skin, 40 g/120 g 1,700 4.05 RYBPROM Pikeperch, fillet, with skin 1,200 2.86 RYBPROM CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 113 TABLE E.9 Retail price from online stores Species Source KZT/kg $/kg Dried Pikeperch, air-dried, gutted 1,675 3.99 RYBPROM Pikeperch, dried, sliced 1,400 3.33 Sapa-M Pikeperch, dried, gutted 1,300 3.10 Sapa-M Smoked Pikeperch, cold-smoked, sliced 1,350 3.21 Sapa-M Northern pike Whole fish Pike, whole 640 1.52 Sapa-M Fillet Pike, fillet 1,340 3.19 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Pike, fillet, without skin 1,450 3.45 RYBPROM Dried Pike, air-dried 1,200 2.86 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Pike, air-dried, gutted 1,800 4.29 RYBPROM Pike, dried, gutted 1,350 3.21 Sapa-M Smoked Pike, cold-smoked, cut 1,400 3.33 Sapa-M Pike, cold-smoked, sliced 1,300 3.10 Sapa-M European perch Fillet Perch, fillet 600 1.43 Khamit Perch, fillet, with skin 1,000 2.38 RYBPROM Dried Perch, air-dried 650 1.55 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Perch, air-dried, whole 1,200 2.86 RYBPROM Perch, dried 720 1.71 Sapa-M Perch, dried, sliced 1,400 3.33 Sapa-M Smoked Perch, cold-smoked 680 1.62 Sapa-M Perch, cold-smoked, sliced 1,350 3.21 Sapa-M Data source: Estimates based on research for this report. 114 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS The retail prices of pike/perch/pikeperch The KFDP set a target to increase the aquaculture products (Table E9) are much higher than the production of pikeperch by 1,500 tons in 2030 first-sale prices. The information indicates that, with no target on the production of northern pike in the domestic market of Kazakhstan, or European perch. The production expansion would be insufficient to satisfy the 6,267 tons ി The price of pikeperch fillets varied from KZT of domestic and export market growth potential 1,000/kg ($2.38/kg) to KZT 2,400/kg ($5.71/ driven by income and population growth. kg). Large-size fillets are more expensive than smaller fillets. Vacuum-packed fillets Indeed, the fish processing industry in are more expensive than those without such Kazakhstan has been constrained by the lack of packaging; pikeperch and other raw materials to operate at full capacity. Pikeperch is a popular fish favored ി Pikeperch fillets appeared to be more by European consumers. In countries with expensive than the fillets of northern pike the tradition of consuming freshwater fishes (KZT 1,340–1,450/kg) or European perch (for example, Finland), pikeperch is deemed a (KZT 600–1,000/kg); and high-value species sold at a high price. With ി While pikeperch products comprised mostly relatively cheap first-sale prices of pikeperch fillets, perch and pike sold in the domestic (average KZT 481/kg or $1.14/kg of whole fish market appear to be mostly dried or smoked in 2019) compared to the export market price products. ($7.25/kg of fillet in 2018; 2.22 kg whole fish In addition to the main products (that is, needed for 1 kg fillets), Kazakhstan tends to whole fish and fillets), side products, such as have little problem in the near future exporting pikeperch cheeks, eggs, gullets, or fins, are also any amount of pikeperch fillets allowed by the sold in the domestic market. supply of raw fish materials. Therefore, the main constraint over pikeperch and other perch-like According to UN Comtrade statistics, Kazakhstan fishes is primarily on the supply side. exported 10,399 tons (product weight) of frozen fish fillets nei in 2018, mostly to European Increasing the production of pikeperch countries. Most of the products were pikeperch / pike / perch fillets, and their $7.24/kg average price is higher According to FAO statistics, 29 countries had than the prices of pikeperch fillets sold in the capture fisheries production of pikeperch domestic market. in 2018, whereas the 21,234 tons of world Insufficient supply of pike / perch / pikeperch production was primarily contributed by Russia (29.12%), Kazakhstan (24.16%), and According to estimates, the income and Finland (22.7%) (Table E10). According to the population-driven domestic and export market FAO statistics, 18 countries had aquaculture growth potential for pike, perch, and pikeperch production of pikeperch in 2018; yet, the between 2018 and 2030 is 6,267 tons (live 1,557 tons of world production was primarily weight), including 3,959 tons of domestic contributed by Uzbekistan (28.12%), Denmark growth potential and 2,309 tons of export (21.57%), Russia (11.17%), and Tunisia (10.92%). market growth potential. The relatively low export market growth potential despite the Pikeperch aquaculture is subject to multiple 23,086 tons of baseline export reflects relative technical difficulties,45 including (a) the lack low population and/or income growth in the of knowledge of the genetic variability of existing markets, mostly in Europe. broodstocks; (b) high sensitivity to stressors, 45 Workshop on recent progress in pikeperch culture https://www.diversifyfish.eu/uploads/1/4/2/0/14206280/fontaine_et_al._nancy_juin_2018.pdf CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 115 handling, and husbandry practices that result aquaculture production of freshwater perch- in high and sudden mortalities; (c) low larval like fishes (including freshwater species in the survival (typical 5–10%); and (d) high incidence superfamily Percoidea) in 2018 (Table E11). of deformities. The rapid expansion of the global aquaculture production of this species group from less than Relatively high production cost is another 100,000 tons in 2000 to nearly 800,000 tons constraining factor—$6.2–7/kg of cost of in 2018 is encouraging. Particularly, mandarin producing marketable pikeperch (1.5 kg body fish, also known as Chinese perch, which is still weight),46 and the constraint is particularly mostly relying on live fingerlings as its main difficult to overcome under the current situation feed stock, managed to increase its production in Kazakhstan with a large amount of much less to over 300,000 tons in 2018. expensive pikeperch supplied by capture fisheries. However, pikeperch aquaculture production was only 0.2% of the 770,040 tons of global TABLE E10: GLOBAL FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION OF PIKEPERCH, 2018 Capture fisheries production of pikeperch Aquaculture production of pikeperch Country or territory Tons Share of total (%) Country or territory Tons Share of total (%) 1. Russian Federation 6,184 29.12 1. Uzbekistan 438 28.12 2. Kazakhstan 5,130 24.16 2. Denmark 336 21.57 3. Finland 4,820 22.70 3. Russian Federation 174 11.17 4. Ukraine 952 4.48 4. Tunisia 170 10.92 5. Sweden 944 4.45 5. Netherlands 100 6.42 6. Estonia 808 3.81 6. Romania 62 3.99 7. Turkey 422 1.99 7. Czechia 62 3.98 8. Poland 303 1.43 8. Bulgaria 58 3.70 9. Netherlands 273 1.29 9. Germany 54 3.47 10. Germany 261 1.23 10. Hungary 53 3.38 Others 1,137 5.35 Others 51 3.27 World 21,234 100.00 World 1,557 100.00 Data source: FAO. 46 “How to Farm Pike-Perch.” https://thefishsite.com/articles/cultured-aquatic-species-pikeperch. 116 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE E11: WORLD AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION OF FRESHWATER PERCH-LIKE FISHES, 2018 Production in 2000 Production in 2018 Common name Scientific name Share of Share of Tons Tons total (%) total (%) Largemouth black bass Micropterus salmoides 178 0.19 434,148 56.38 Mandarin fish Siniperca chuatsi 86,144 91.79 315,906 41.02 Nile perch Lates niloticus 1,367 1.46 15,417 2.00 Striped bass, hybrid Morone chrysops x M. saxatilis 5,394 5.75 1,619 0.21 Pikeperch Sander lucioperca 363 0.39 1,557 0.20 European perch Perca fluviatilis 126 0.13 670 0.09 Silver perch Bidyanus bidyanus 271 0.29 365 0.05 Murray cod Maccullochella peelii 8 0.01 266 0.03 Barcoo grunter Scortum barcoo   64 0.01 American yellow perch Perca flavescens   24 0.00 Golden perch Macquaria ambigua 2 0.00 3 0.00 Freshwater perch-like fishes (Percoidea, freshwater) 93,853 100.00 770,040 100.00 Ways to increase pikeperch production in farming experiences in other countries. Kazakhstan include, among others, the following: Pikeperch stock enhancement has for many years played an important role in maintaining ി Pikeperch may be farmed extensively as an fisheries in the Danube Delta of Romania. additional species in carp culture in earthen ponds. Yet, it may not become a target farming ി Kazakhstan may also learn from experiences species in Kazakhstan in the near future. of the aquaculture development of similar species. In North America, there has been ി There should be more efforts in basic substantial progress in the hatching, research and practical experiments of restocking, and farming of walleye, also known pikeperch aquaculture to lay a foundation for as yellow pike (Sander vitreus),47 the North a potential leap forward in pikeperch farming American cousin of pikeperch. Pikeperch in the future. has been marketed in the North America ി Kazakhstan may learn from pikeperch as walleye or walleye pike.48 The farming of 47 Summerfelt, R. C. 1996. Walleye Culture Manual. NCRAC Culture Series 101. North Central Regional Aquaculture Center (NCRAC). Iowa State University. www.ncrac.org/content/walleye-culture-manual; Davidson, J., R. Summerfelt, F. Barrows, B. Gottsacker, C. Good, G. Fischer, and S. Summerfelt. 2016. “Walleye Sander vitreus Performance, Water Quality, and Waste Production in Replicated Recirculation Aquaculture Systems When Feeding a Low Phosphorus Diet without Fishmeal versus a Traditional Fishmeal-Based Diet.” Aquacultural Engineering 75: 1–13. 48 Summerfelt, R. C., R. D. Clayton, J. A., Johnson, and R. E. Kinnunen. 2010. “Production of Walleye as Potential Food Fish.” NCRAC Extension Fact Sheets (7-2010). North Central Regional Aquaculture Center (NCRAC). Iowa State University. https://www.ncrac.org/files/biblio/WFS116secure.pdf CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 117 mandarin fish, also known as Chinese perch in Kazakhstan, the world production of the two (Siniperca chuatsi) in China, which started in species were slightly greater than pikeperch the early 1970s and developed into a 300,000 (Table E12 and Table E13). Similar to pikeperch, tons industry in 2018, may also offer useful there was only a small amount of aquaculture experiences and lessons.49 production of the two species: 1,324 tons for While the production of northern pike and northern pike (Table E12) and 670 tons for European perch were much less than pikeperch European perch. TABLE E12: GLOBAL FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION OF NORTHERN PIKE, 2018 Capture fisheries production Aquaculture production of northern pike of northern pike Country or territory Tons Share of total (%) Country or territory Tons Share of total (%) 1. Russian Federation 21,994 60.74 1. Russian Federation 772 58.33 2. Finland 7,200 19.88 2. Poland 150 11.33 3. Uzbekistan 1,940 5.36 3. Belarus 133 10.03 4. Canada 1,721 4.75 4. Czechia 87 6.57 5. Kazakhstan 810 2.24 5. Germany 44 3.32 6. Sweden 653 1.80 6. Lithuania 40 3.05 7. Poland 241 0.67 7. Hungary 23 1.77 8. Romania 221 0.61 8. Kazakhstan 20 1.51 9. Germany 209 0.58 9. Romania 17 1.27 10. Estonia 207 0.57 10. Bulgaria 12 0.92 Others 1,016 2.81 Others 25 1.89 World 36,212 100.00 World 1,324 100.00 Data source: FAO. 49 Ren et al 2019;Li, W., B. J. Hicks, M. Lin, et al. 2018. « Impacts of Hatchery-Reared Mandarin Fish Siniperca chuatsi Stocking on Wild Fish Community and Water Quality in a Shallow Yangtze Lake.” Sci Rep 8, 11481. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-29758-z; He, S., L. Li, L. Y. Lv, et al. 2020. “Mandarin Fish (Sinipercidae) Genomes Provide Insights into Innate Predatory Feeding.” Commun Biol 3, 361. https://doi.org/10.1038/s42003-020-1094-y. 118 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS Kazakhstan may not have enough resources to a more advantageous aquaculture species for pursue all three species (pikeperch, northern Kazakhstan than the other two species, whereas pike, and European perch) at the same time with a more comprehensive assessment is needed to equal force; prioritization is needed. Judging consider their technical feasibility. from market potential, pikeperch tends to be TABLE E13: GLOBAL FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION OF EUROPEAN PERCH, 2018 Capture fisheries production of European perch Aquaculture production of European perch Country or territory Tons Share of total (%) Country or territory Tons Share of total (%) 1. Russian Federation 14,338 49.76 1. Switzerland 305 45.51 2. Finland 8,457 29.35 2. Russian Federation 284 42.38 3. Estonia 1,737 6.03 3. Kazakhstan 60 8.95 4. Sweden 1,044 3.62 4. Czechia 14 2.09 5. Poland 798 2.77 5. Denmark 2 0.30 6. Kazakhstan 710 2.46 6. Italy 2 0.30 7. United Kingdom 400 1.39 7. Bulgaria 2 0.29 8. Germany 365 1.27 8. Romania 1 0.19 9. Switzerland 344 1.19 10. Albania 162 0.56 Others 459 1.59 World 28,814 100.00 World 670 100.00 Data source: FAO. Sturgeons and caviar production in 2019 was 179 tons, which was much lower than the 650 tons production in Sturgeons 2018. The decline, which may be overstated Capture fisheries production of sturgeons because of the unavailability of the production is forbidden in Kazakhstan to protect the data in Atyrau, 50 occurred to all the three endangered species. According to the national sturgeon species and in all regions (Table statistics, Kazakhstan’s sturgeon aquaculture E14). 50 In December 2018, mortalities occurred in sturgeon farms in Atyrau with 102 tons of female sturgeon with caviar dead because of water pollution caused by the combined heat and power plant located upstream of the Ural river. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 119 TABLE E14: STURGEON AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN Siberian All sturgeon Sterlet Beluga sturgeon species (A. ruthenus) (Huso huso) Region (A. baerii) 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 Kazakhstan 650 179 555 141 73 36 23 2 Atyrau region 318 — 286 n.a. 31 n.a. — — Mangystau region 150 89 96 65 31 22 23 2 Turkistan region (including Shymkent city) 116 33 111 33 6 — — — Almaty region 23 12 23 12 — — — — Karagandy region 13 2 13 2 — — — — West Kazakhstan region 4 — n.a. n.a. 4 n.a. — — East Kazakhstan region — 23 — 23 — — — — Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. Sturgeon and caviar production tends to be a 30 sturgeon farms in Kazakhstan with the total capital-intensive business suitable primarily for annual production capacity of 1,500 tons of large enterprises with strong financial/technical sturgeon meat and 27 tons of caviar (Table capacity and good market channels. There E15). There are a variety of sturgeon farming has been much interest in sturgeon farming in systems in Kazakhstan with RAS being the main Kazakhstan. According to the unofficial data system, and nearly the entire caviar production based on field survey, as of 2017, there were capacity is from RAS (Table E16). TABLE E15: OPERATIONAL STURGEON FARMS IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2017 Designed capacity (tons) Region (ranked by meat production capacity) Number of farms meat caviar Almaty 11 561 5 Atyrau 3 304 6 Aktobe 1 150 - Karagandy 4 101 1 Zhambyl 1 90 - Mangistau 3 81 1 West Kazakhstan 2 71 9 Turkestan 1 60 1 120 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE E.15 Designed capacity (tons) Region (ranked by meat production capacity) Number of farms meat caviar East Kazakhstan 3 51 4 Pavlodar 1 35 - Total 30 1,503 27 Data source: Unofficial data based on field survey. TABLE E16: STURGEON FARMING SYSTEMS IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2016 Designed capacity (tons) Farming system (ranked by meat production Number of farms capacity) Meat Caviar All systems 23 793 17 RAS 13 566 16 Ponds 2 103 0 Cages 2 57 1 Basin 4 41 0 Mixed (tank + pond) 2 27 0 Data source: Unofficial data based on field survey. Most of Kazakhstan’s sturgeon production is less than the 3,528 tons of sturgeon production for domestic consumption. In 2020, the first- target in the KFDP. sale price of farmed sturgeon in Kazakhstan Way forward for sturgeon aquaculture in was KZT 4,067/kg ($9.68/kg), which was much Kazakhstan higher than that of other species. Few online fish stores offer sturgeon products; thus, only one According to the latest FAO statistics, 35 countries/ sturgeon product was found, that is, smoked territories contributed to the 115,236 tons of sturgeon fillet offered by Instashop (Almaty global aquaculture production of sturgeons and city) at KZT 32,480/kg ($77/kg). paddlefishes in 2018, and the top four producing countries are neighbors of Kazakhstan (Table E17). China accounted for 84% of the production, Modest increase in demand for sturgeon and most of sturgeon/paddlefish aquaculture According to estimates, Kazakhstan’s domestic production in China occurred in warmer places market growth potential for sturgeons between (compared to Kazakhstan) that allow faster 2018 and 2030 is only 177 tons, which, given growth of sturgeons. Armenia, Russia, and the the 657 tons baseline domestic demand, implies Islamic Republic of Iran also had substantial 834 tons of domestic demand for sturgeons in sturgeon aquaculture production; yet production 2030. This is a little more than half of the 1,503 in the former two has been stagnant in recent tons existing production capacity and much years (Figure E1). CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 121 TABLE E17: GLOBAL STURGEONS/PADDLEFISHES AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION, 2018 Aquaculture production of sturgeons and paddlefishes Country or territory Tons Share of total (%) 1. China 96,914 84.10 2. Armenia 3,910 3.39 3. Russian Federation 3,791 3.29 4. Iran, Islamic Rep. 2,839 2.46 5. Vietnam 1,400 1.21 6. Italy 1,179 1.02 7. United States of America 1,166 1.01 8. Poland 784 0.68 9. Kazakhstan 560 0.49 10. Bulgaria 520 0.45 Others 2,173 1.89 World 115,236 100.00 Data source: FAO. FIGURE E1: STURGEON / PADDLEFISH AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION IN THREE NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES OF KAZAKHSTAN, 2015–2018 4,6 4,1 3,9 3,8 3,8 3,8 2,8 Thousand tons 2,5 2,6 2,6 2,1 1,1 Armenia Russian Federation Iran (Islamic Republic of) 2015 2016 2017 2018 Data source: FAO. 122 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS According to the national statistics, sturgeon has set a target of 10 tons caviar production in aquaculture production faced a similar situation, 2030. declining from 650 tons in 2018 to 179 tons According to an industry report,52 45 countries in 2019 (Table E14). While the magnitude of worldwide legally produced around 360 tons of the decline may be overstated because of the caviar in 2017. The large producers include China missing of the production figure for Atyrau, the (100 tons, 27.5% of the total), Russia (49 tons, decline was generally in all regions. Multiple 13.5%), Italy (43 tons, 11.8%), France (37 tons, factors have contributed to the lack of growth in 10.2%), Poland (20.4 tons, 5.6%), Germany (16.1 sturgeon aquaculture in Kazakhstan: tons, 4.4%), and the United States of America ി The incorrect assessment of the sturgeon (15.9 tons, 4.37%). market capacity is a fundamental issue. According to the report, Kazakhstan’s caviar Investors were attracted by the high price production was 0.4 tons in 2017, lower than of caviar but paid inadequate attention some neighboring countries such as Armenia (4 to the change in market conditions when tons), Azerbaijan (3 tons), the Kyrgyz Republic the supply surged, and the business plans (1 ton) and Uzbekistan (0.5 tons). While many were designed based on an overoptimistic sturgeon farms in Kazakhstan are interested assumption that all production could be sold. in producing caviars, only three farms have ി There is limited domestic demand in current production, and one farm plans to start Kazakhstan for sturgeon meat and black harvesting caviar in 2021. caviar, and the competition in the international Under this situation, the 10-ton caviar production markets from other producing countries is target in 2030 set in the KFDP appears harsh (for example, China and Russia). ambitious. However, Kazakhstan has ample ി There are technical issues such as caviar production capacity (17 tons according inappropriate farm design, unreliable to Table E16), and the successful experience of equipment, and/or inadequate expertise and China in producing high-quality caviar through experiences in running RAS systems. farmed sturgeons is encouraging. As one of the Caspian countries, Kazakhstan may enjoy a Lowering the cost of sturgeon aquaculture branding advantage in Beluga caviar. production is crucial to increasing its demand in both domestic and foreign markets. As the situation Trout and salmon of sturgeon demand lower than supply tends to Similar to sturgeons, the production of trout persist in the near future,51 sturgeon farming in and salmon in Kazakhstan primarily came from Kazakhstan may need to go through a process of aquaculture. According to the national statistics, consolidation before it becomes a mature, robust trout and salmon aquaculture production in industry. The public sector can help provide good Kazakhstan increased from 277 tons in 2016 to market and sector information and set guidance 786 tons in 2019, and the production comprised and standards to facilitate the sustainable primarily rainbow trout and a small amount of development of the sturgeon sub-sector. unspecified salmon produced in Mangystau Caviar (Table E17). The rainbow trout aquaculture in  2019 was concentrated in East Kazakhstan There is no target of caviar production in the and Almaty with a relatively small amount of current version, but an earlier draft of the KFDP 51 Bronzi, P., M. Chebanov, J. T. Michaels, Q. Wei, H. Rosenthal, and J. Gessner. 2019. “Sturgeon Meat and Caviar Production: Global Update 2017.” J. Appl. Ichthyol. 2019 (35): 257–266. 52 Bronzi et al. 2019. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 123 production in Turkistan and some sporadic farms in East Kazakhstan with over 1,000 tons production in Karagandy. production capacity each (Table E18). While the four cage farms (as well as the three pond In 2019, 13 rainbow trout farming operations farms to a less extent) operated well below their with nearly 3,000 tons of production capacity design capacities, two RAS farms (#3 and #5) harvested only a little over 500 tons of fish. Most and the tank farm operated at full capacity. of the production capacity belongs to two cage TABLE E18: TROUT AND SALMON AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2016–2019 2016 2017 2018 2019 Region (farming species) Tons Tons Tons Tons Share (%) Kazakhstan 277 502 568 786 100.00 East Kazakhstan (rainbow trout) 1 n.a. 133 345 43.88 Almaty region (rainbow trout) 202 n.a. 289 322 41.01 Turkistan region (rainbow trout) 66 n.a. 115 91 11.64 Karagandy region (rainbow trout) — 16 — 1 0.17 Mangystau region (unspecified salmon) 8 22 31 26 3.30 Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. Some of the 13 farms have their own processing ി The retail prices of whole trout ranged from facilities, mostly gutting and chilling, and the KZT 1,200/kg ($2.86/kg) for brook trout to RAS farm #4 in Turkistan (established in 2009) KZT 5,050/kg ($12.02/kg) for large trout has a more complete set of processing facilities over 2 kg; that also include salting, drying, smoking, and ി The local whole rainbow trout offered vacuum packing. Some of the farms have their by Rybprom at KZT 2,000/kg was much own trading operations, including delicatessen cheaper than imported whole trout from shops (cage farm #4 in Karagandy), frying fish Turkey (KZT 3,630/kg) or from Norway on-site or their own restaurant (pond farm #1 in (KZT 3,700/kg); Almaty and RAS farm #4 in Turkistan), and fish kiosk (RAS farm #1 in Almaty) (Table E19). ി There were large premiums for large-size trout—the price of large trout (1.2–1.8 kg, In 2020, the average farm gate price of rainbow KZT 4,950/kg) was more than twice the price trout in Kazakhstan was KZT 1,516/kg ($3.61/ of 300–350 g gutted trout (tail off, head on) kg), which was higher than most other species offered by Fish House; and except for sturgeons. A recent market survey shows that live trout was sold at KZT 2,100/kg ി The local rainbow trout fillet offered by ($5/kg) in a supermarket in Almaty. Rybprom at KZT 2,800/kg was much cheaper than trout fillet imported from Norway (KZT According to the price lists from several online 4,550/kg). fish stores (Table E20), 124 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE E19: RAINBOW TROUT AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2019 Project Design 2019 pro- Own Water Technology Location starting capacity (tons duction processing Own trading capacity source date per year) (tons) facilities Cage operations     2,320 174     East Ust’-Kame- Cage farm 1 Kazakh- nogorsk 2017 1,200 100 Unknown Unknown stan reservoir No. Fish East Ust’-Kame- transferred Cage farm 2 Kazakh- nogorsk 2017 1,000 65 to the parent No stan reservoir company for processing. East Small Cage farm 3 Kazakh- reservoir at 2018 105 4 No No stan springs Karagan- Topar Gutting, One delicatessen Cage farm 4 2010 15 5 dy reservoir chilling shop in Karagandy city Pond operations     232 62     Gutting, Frying fish on-site Pond farm 1 Almaty Turgen river 2014 100 50 cleaning for tourists on-site Pond farm 2 Almaty Well 2018 100 12 No No Pond farm 3 Turkistan Unknown 2016 32 — Unknown No data RAS operation     195 102     Fish kiosk in RAS farm 1 Almaty Well 2008 50 50 No Almaty city RAS farm 2 Almaty Well 2015 50 23 No No RAS farm 3 Almaty Well 2009 50 1.3 No No Gutting, chilling, salt- ing, drying, On farm trade, frying RAS farm 4 Turkistan Well 2009 30 13 smoking, on own restaurant and vacuum packing RAS farm 5 Turkistan Well 2012 15 15 No data No data Tank operation     198 166     No. Chilled fish exported to Russian Federation. Caviar for processing is trans- Gutting and Tank farm 1 Almaty Issyk River 2015 198 166 ferred to Rybprom chilling LLP (Almaty). In 2020, the farm attempted to self-process the caviar. All 13 farms 2,945 504     Data source: Forest Committee and regional Akimats (regional executive bodies). CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 125 TABLE E20: RETAIL PRICES OF TROUT PRODUCTS IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2020 Retail price from online stores Species Origin Source KZT/kg $/kg Whole fish Trout, whole, > 2 kg Kazakhstan 5,050 12.02 Fish house Trout, whole, 1.2–1.8 kg Kazakhstan 4,950 11.79 Fish house Trout, whole, superior Norway 3,700 8.81 Fish house Trout, whole Turkey 3,630 8.64 Instashop (Almaty city) Rainbow trout, whole 2,000 4.76 RYBPROM Char, whole 1,200 2.86 Sapa-M LLP (Kostanay) Gutted Trout, gutted, head off 4,400 10.48 Sapa-M LLP (Kostanay) Trout, gutted, tail off, head on, Kazakhstan 2,000 4.76 Fish House 300–350 g Fillet/steak Rainbow trout, fillet 2,800 6.67 RYBPROM Trout, fillet, vacuum packed Norway 4,550 10.83 Fish house Trout, steak, vacuum packed Norway 4,050 9.64 Fish house Smoked Char, cold-smoked, gutted 2,200 5.24 Sapa-M LLP (Kostanay) Data source: estimates based on research for this report. Kazakhstan had little salmon production yet Salmon appears to be the most popular fish imported a large amount of Atlantic salmon and product offered by many online fish stores a variety of other salmon products. Indeed, the with a variety of products — see Table E21 country’s nearly 5,000 tons (product weight) for a small sample. The KZT 3,700/kg ($8.81/ import of frozen whole Atlantic salmon was kg) price of whole Atlantic salmon (6 – 7 kg) worth $22 million and accounted for one-fourth offered by Radovnya (Kostanay city) is similar of the total fish and seafood import value in to the prices of imported whole trout. This 2018. Kazakhstan also imported 136 tons ($1.45 may indicate that Kazakhstani consumers may million) of fresh/chilled salmon (HS030214), the differentiate salmon according to their size and price of which ($10.71) was more than twice that color instead of the exact species, yet more of the frozen Atlantic salmon ($4.73/kg). The data and a rigorous investigation are needed country also imported 440 tons ($1.41 million) to verify the conjecture. In addition to Atlantic of frozen Pacific salmon whose price ($3.21/kg) salmon, Kazakhstan also imported a variety was lower than that of frozen Atlantic salmon. of Pacific salmon, including those cheaper 126 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS than Atlantic salmon (for example, coho/silver to 1,146 tons, which is less than half of the salmon, humpback/pink salmon, sockeye/ existing 2,945 tons of the existing capacity of red salmon, and chum/dog salmon) and king/ rainbow aquaculture in Kazakhstan (Table E18). chinook/quinnat salmon that appeared to be Kazakhstanis consumed 6,144 tons (live weight) more expensive. of imported salmon products in 2018, and the Both the international statistics (FAO and UN demand could increase by 1,656 tons because Comtrade) and national statistics indicate that of income and population growth in Kazakhstan, in 2018, Kazakhstan exported 336 tons of which could raise the demand to 7,800 tons in fresh/chill trout (HS030211) with Russia being 2030. Substituting local rainbow trout products the sole destination.53 According to a survey in for the salmon import would help utilize the March 2019, the wholesale prices in Moscow existing production capacity of rainbow trout. and St. Petersburg were $4.33/kg for standard However, even if the local rainbow trout products size trout (0.8 kg) and $6.5/kg for large trout were able to entirely substitute imported (1.5/kg). salmon products, the overall demand would Expected modest increase in demand still fall short of the country’s 16,629 tons of for trout and salmon production from target for rainbow trout production in 2030, not Kazakhstan to mention the daunting target of over 100,000 tons of Caspian salmon production. According to estimates, the baseline domestic consumption of rainbow trout in 2018 was Therefore, substantial efforts are needed to 618 tons (live weight), the baseline export increase domestic and export market potential was 336 tons, and the domestic and foreign to help realize the production targets set in market growth potential driven by income and the KFDP. Similar to the case of sturgeon, the population growth between 2018 and 2030 is demand increase would entail lowering the cost 192 tons. The sum of the three figures is equal of trout and salmon production in Kazakhstan. TABLE E21: RETAIL PRICES OF SALMON PRODUCTS IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2020 Retail price from online Source Species stores KZT/kg $/kg Whole fish Atlantic salmon, whole (6–7 kg) 3,700 8.81 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Coho/silver salmon, whole 2,750 6.55 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Humpback/pink salmon, whole 1,950 4.64 Radovnya (Kostanay city) King/Chinook/Quinnat salmon (Far East), whole (4–10 kg) 6,705 15.96 Instashop (Almaty city) Fillet/steak Atlantic salmon, fillet 6,300 15.00 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Atlantic salmon, steak (300 g) 5,800 13.81 Radovnya (Kostanay city) 53 Yet the $130,000 value of the export implied an unrealistically low price (only $0.4/kg) for fresh/chilled trout. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 127 TABLE E.21 Retail price from online Source Species stores KZT/kg $/kg Sockeye/red salmon, steak 4,300 10.24 Sapa-M LLP (Kostanay) Dried/salted/smoked Atlantic salmon, slightly air-dried fillet 6,500 15.48 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Coho/silver salmon, air-dried 2,000 4.76 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Chum/keta salmon, slightly air-dried 1,600 3.81 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Atlantic salmon, slightly salted, fillet 6,700 15.95 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Sockeye/red salmon (Far East), light salted 7,866 18.73 Instashop (Almaty city) Atlantic salmon, cold-smoked fillet 6,150 14.64 Sapa-M LLP (Kostanay) Chum/keta salmon, smoked 5,445 12.96 Instashop (Almaty city) Humpback/pink, cold-smoked steak 2,800 6.67 Sapa-M LLP (Kostanay) Data source: estimates based on research for this report. Rainbow trout can be tapped by Kazakhstan’s trout export. International markets imported 263,000 tons The extent to which Kazakhstan can tap the (product weight) of trout products in 2018. 50,000 tons of the target export markets EAEC/EurAsEC, including Kazakhstan, the (that is, the 30,000 tons of trout import by Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Russia, EAEC/EurAsEC and the 20,000 tons frozen is the most favorable trout export market for whole trout import by EU28) depends on the Kazakhstan in the near future. EAEC/EurAsEC competitiveness of its trout products. imported 30,000 tons of trout products in 2018, According to FAO statistics, the global which comprised primarily fresh and frozen aquaculture production of rainbow trout in 2018 whole trout. was 848,051 tons with the Islamic Republic of EU28 imported 127,000 tons (product weight) Iran and Turkey accounting for, respectively, of trout products in 2018 with a diversified 21.19% and 13.26% of the production. Russia production composition, including around was the only EAEC/EurAsEC member among the 20,000 tons of frozen whole trout market that top 10 trout farming countries (Table E22). TABLE E22: TOP 10 RAINBOW TROUT FARMING COUNTRIES, 2018 Aquaculture production of rainbow trout, 2018 Country or territory Tons Share of total (%) 1. Iran, Islamic Rep. 179,684 21.19 2. Turkey 112,427 13.26 3. Chile 78,446 9.25 128 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE E.22 Aquaculture production of rainbow trout, 2018 Country or territory Tons Share of total (%) 4. Norway 68,216 8.04 5. Peru 55,030 6.49 6. China 38,606 4.55 7. Russian Federation 35,204 4.15 8. Italy 32,826 3.87 9. Denmark 29,737 3.51 10. France 26,100 3.08 Others 191,776 22.61 World 848,051 100.00 Data source: FAO. In 2018, the EAEC/EurAsEC imported 11,796 export, geographic proximity may be less tons of frozen whole trout (HS030314); 10,712 important than other factors, such as the tons of which went to Russia. Chile was the quantity, quality, and stability of the supply. largest exporter and Peru the third largest, The Kyrgyz Republic was the only EAEC / despite their long distance to the market (Table EurAsEC member among the top 10 frozen E23). This indicates that for frozen trout trout exporters to EAEC / EurAsEC. TABLE E23: IMPORT OF FROZEN WHOLE TROUT (HS030314) BY THE EAEC/EURASEC, 2018 Frozen whole trout (HS030314) import by EAEC/EurAsEC, 2018 Top 10 exporters Tons Market share (%) Value ($, thousands) Price ($/kg) 1. Chile 5,642 47.83 43,746 7.75 2. Turkey 3,057 25.91 14,922 4.88 3. Peru 1,237 10.48 7,336 5.93 4. Norway 573 4.86 3,460 6.04 5. China 381 3.23 2,915 7.65 6. Kyrgyz Republic 264 2.24 1,223 4.63 7. Iran, Islamic Rep. 145 1.23 916 6.32 8. Finland 136 1.15 210 1.55 9. Denmark 84 0.71 481 5.71 10. Estonia 78 0.66 125 1.60 Rest of the world 200 1.69 1,197 5.99 World 11,796 100.00 76,533 6.49 Data source: UN Comtrade. Note: The members of the EAEC/EurAsEC include Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Russian Federation. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 129 In 2018, the EAEC/EurAsEC imported 16,359 importance of geographic proximity for fresh tons of fresh whole trout (HS030211); 9,563 trout export. Three EAEC/EurAsEC members tons went to Belarus and 6,743 went to Russia. (Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Russia) were among Norway was the largest exporter, and all the top the top 10 exporters to the market, and a 10 exporters are in relatively close proximity Caucasus country, Armenia was the third largest to the market (Table E24). This reflects the exporter. TABLE E24: IMPORT OF FRESH WHOLE TROUT (HS030211) BY EAEC/EURASEC, 2018 Fresh whole trout (HS030211) import by EAEC/EurAsEC, 2018 Top 10 exporters Tons Market share (%) Value ($, thousands) Price ($/kg) 1. Norway 8,119 49.63 60,710 7.48 2. Turkey 2,997 18.32 16,091 5.37 3. Armenia 2,985 18.25 17,736 5.94 4. Finland 884 5.40 4,438 5.02 5. Denmark 533 3.26 2,697 5.06 6. Kazakhstan 336 2.05 130 0.39 7. Belarus 225 1.37 1,087 4.83 8. Faeroe Islands 141 0.86 648 4.61 9. Iran, Islamic Rep. 60 0.36 327 5.48 10. Russian Federation 44 0.27 143 3.28 Rest of the world 38 0.23 277 7.25 World 16,359 100.00 104,285 6.37 Data source: UN Comtrade. Note: The members of the EAEC/EurAsEC include Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Russian Federation. In 2018, EU28 imported 19,401 tons of frozen than that of the EAEC/EurAsEC market ($6.49/ whole trout (HS03014) with Turkey being the kg). No country in EAEC/EurAsEC or Central largest exporter accounting for one-third of the Asia and the Caucasus was among the top 10 market. The $4.46/kg average price in the EU exporters of frozen whole trout to the EU market market for frozen trout import was much lower (Table E25). TABLE E25: EU28’S IMPORT OF FROZEN WHOLE TROUT (HS030314) IN 2018 EU28’s import of frozen whole trout (HS030314), 2018 Top 10 exporters Tons Market share (%) Value ($, thousands) Price ($/kg) 1. Turkey 6,716 34.62 24,387 3.63 2. Denmark 2,982 15.37 16,309 5.47 130 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE E.25 EU28’s import of frozen whole trout (HS030314), 2018 Top 10 exporters Tons Market share (%) Value ($, thousands) Price ($/kg) 3. Spain 2,362 12.17 9,968 4.22 4. United Kingdom 1,204 6.21 6,017 5.00 5. Norway 1,021 5.26 5,785 5.67 6. France 685 3.53 2,285 3.33 7. Netherlands 640 3.30 2,848 4.45 8. Poland 537 2.77 2,009 3.74 9. Sweden 443 2.29 4,696 10.59 10. Albania 442 2.28 1,418 3.21 Rest of the world 2,368 12.21 10,750 4.54 World 19,401 100.00 86,472 4.46 Data source: UN Comtrade. Suppose that Kazakhstan can manage to 10% between 2018 and 2030 (reaching, increase its domestic trout consumption to respectively, 13,000 tons and 21,000 tons in 0.36 kg, which was Russia’s per capita trout 2030) and Kazakhstan manages to hold 5% of consumption in 2018;54 then the total trout each market, then Kazakhstan’s frozen trout consumption of its 20.639  million population export to the EAEC/EurAsEC and EU markets would be approximately 7,400 tons in 2030. could reach 1,700 tons. EAEC/EurAsEC has a limited market growth The 3,200 tons of fresh/chilled trout export to potential (for example, only 7.5% growth for EAEC/EurAsEC plus the 1,700 tons of frozen Russia between 2018 and 2030) because trout export to EU28 and EAEC/EurAsEC equal to of the relatively low population and income 4,900 tons of total trout export, which, together growth in the member countries. For simplicity, with the 7,400 tons of domestic consumption, assuming a 10% market growth potential, the gives 12,300 tons of total market capacity in EAEC/EurAsEC import market for fresh whole 2030 for trout production in Kazakhstan. trout could increase to 18,000 tons. It may be As rainbow trout is a popular fish commodity, difficult for Kazakhstan to compete with Norway Kazakhstan may not need to spend much effort and Turkey in the fresh trout market, but it in marketing but could focus on improving the could take Armenia to become the third largest quality and lowering the cost of rainbow trout exporter holding 18% of the market. Under this production and enhancing the efficiency of situation, Kazakhstan could export 3,200 tons its fish value chain. The current $3.61/kg farm of fresh trout to EAEC-EurAsEC. gate price of rainbow trout in Kazakhstan is Similarly, suppose that the EAEC/EurAsEC and lower than the average $6.37/kg price of EAEC/ EU28 import of frozen whole trout increase EurAsEC’s fresh trout import. Yet, price is not 54 In 2018, Russia had 35,204 tons of domestic aquaculture production of rainbow trout, imported 17,455 tons, and exported 396 tons, which gives the apparent trout consumption was 52,263 tons. Given the country’s 146 million population in 2018, the estimated per capita trout consumption in 2018 was 0.36 kg. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 131 the only factor that matters in international fish brown trout. The KFDP sets an ambitious target trade. Kazakhstan needs to maintain a stable of annual aquaculture production of 100,000 supply of a substantial amount of high-quality tons of Caspian salmon by 2030. This is a products to outcompete other exporters. daunting task in terms of both production and marketing, especially since Caspian salmon is In terms of farming systems, RAS is less not an established aquaculture species. While constrained by terrain and soil conditions; yet some countries (for example, Azerbaijan56) it is difficult to become the main contributor culture Caspian salmon fingerlings for stock to export-oriented rainbow trout production enhancement, there is little commercial because of its relatively high production cost. aquaculture of the species. Flowing through systems, such as raceway or tank, can produce high-quality rainbow trout With the lack of experience in Caspian salmon at a relatively low cost; yet they tend to be farming, global experiences in the aquaculture of constrained by the availability of suitable water other salmon species provides some guidance. source. Cage culture tends to be the main According to FAO statistics, contributor to export-oriented trout production ി The world aquaculture production of Atlantic in Kazakhstan because of its relatively low salmon (Salmo salar) increased from 294 production cost and less constraint over tons in 1970 to 2.4 million tons in 2018 production expansion. However, it is crucial (Table E26). Totally 21 countries/territories to have proper planning and management to have farmed the species during the period; ensure the long-term sustainability of cage yet only 13 countries (primarily Norway and culture, especially in inland water bodies. Chile) contributed to the production in 2018; In terms of industrial organization, it tends to be ി The world aquaculture production of coho/ difficult for a trout farming industry composed silver (Oncorhynchus kisutch) increased of a number of small-scale operations to be from 250 tons in 1970 to 166,521 tons in 2018. competitive in the international markets because Totally 10 countries have farmed the species of the lack of economies of scale in not only during the period; yet only two countries production but also marketing. Experiences in (primarily Chile with a small amount of other countries indicate that a leading entity, production from Japan) contributed to the being a large company (for example, the production in 2018; Akvatekhavtomatika company in Armenia)55 or a functional association (for example, the Vietnam ി The world aquaculture production of chinook/ Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers king salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) [VASEP]), is often crucial to an export-oriented increased from 234 tons in 1985 to 16,291 aquaculture industry. While such leading entities tons in 2018. Totally five countries have are usually molded by market forces, the public farmed the species during the period; yet sector can adopt a policy to facilitate the process. the 2018 production was contributed solely by New Zealand; and Caspian salmon ി Norway, Chile, United Kingdom, and Canada Caspian salmon (Salmo trutta caspius) is a were the only countries with annual salmon subspecies of Salmo trutta commonly known as aquaculture production exceeding 100,000 55 World Bank. 2013. “Case Study: Akvatekhavtomatika CJSC – Fish-Breeding in a Landlocked Economy.” In Fostering Entrepreneurship in Armenia (pp. 33–37). http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/462221468008429321/pdf/Fostering-entrepreneurship-in-Armenia.pdf 56 In Azerbaijan, there have been state-funded operations to restock Caspian salmon with limited impact, and the stock of Caspian salmon has yet to recover to the level that can sustain commercial fisheries of the species. 132 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS tons. It took Norway 26 years (from 1964 to 1978 to 1996), United Kingdom 29 years 1989) to increase salmon production from (from 1970 to 1998), and Canada 36 years nil to over 100,000 tons, Chile 19 years (from (from 1979 to 2014). TABLE E26: TRENDS OF WORLD SALMON AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION, 1970–2018 World aquaculture production (tons) Year Coho/silver salmon Chinook/king salmon Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) (Oncorhynchus kisutch) (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) 1970 294 250 1975 1,258 420 1980 5,288 2,560 1985 38,797 9,361 234 1990 225,642 39,164 14,998 1995 465,245 58,360 13,444 2000 895,808 108,626 16,664 2005 1,267,297 115,223 10,404 2010 1,437,052 137,510 13,541 2015 2,381,579 140,957 12,474 2018 2,435,948 166,521 16,291 Data source: FAO. Although the relatively slow production growth technologies and marketing mechanisms. in these countries was partly due to stringent Caspian salmon also faces a less noticeable yet environmental regulations constraining the potentially significant hindrance in marketing as sector development, the historical experiences a salmon. While belonging to the same genus indicate that Kazakhstan’s attempt to increase as Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) and behaving Caspian salmon aquaculture production from nil like salmon in marine water, Salmo trutta is to 100,000 tons in a decade is challenging. commonly deemed a trout species and treated As Caspian salmon can be artificially bred and so in trade statistics. Simply marketing Caspian grown, production expansion is technically salmon (Salmo trutta caspius) as a salmon is not feasible. The difficulty lies in how to cultivate guaranteed success. The controversy on whether the species at a cost acceptable to the market, steelhead salmon (that is, rainbow trout grown in especially when facing strong competition from marine water) is a salmon or a trout is a good established species (for example, Atlantic salmon lesson to learn.57 The legitimacy of marketing or rainbow trout) that have mature farming rainbow trout as ‘freshwater salmon’ has recently 57 News article on “Salmon or trout: What the heck is a steelhead, anyway?” https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/salmon-or-trout-what-the-heck-is-a-steelhead-anyway-1.4461827 CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 133 been hotly debated in China, and researchers In 2018, Kazakhstan produced 358 tons of and industry experts’ efforts in justifying the whitefish, including 104 tons of ‘ripus’ (small- legitimacy from various perspectives (biological, size whitefish) from capture fisheries and 254 nutritional, and taste) have apparently not been tons of ‘peled’ (large-size white fish) from all successful in convincing consumers that aquaculture, and the total whitefish production rainbow trout is a salmon. declined slightly to 316 tons in 2019 (Table E27). It is a more realistic and viable strategy to treat North Kazakhstan and East Kazakhstan are the Caspian salmon as a niche species (that is, main whitefish producing regions, with a small focusing on value) and refrain from pursuing amount of production in Akmola. it as a commodity species (that is, focusing It is worth noting that the differentiation of on volume) before its technical and market prospects are firmly established. As a native, species and production mode (culture versus niche species, Caspian salmon tends to have capture) in the official whitefish production a competitive advantage in local food catering statistics is for statistical purpose. Both ripus industry and recreational fisheries, and it can be and peled are harvested by Commercial Lake marketed to export markets as a novel salmon/ Fish Farms (CLFFs). Five to seven species from trout product catering high-end customers’ the Coregonidae family were stocked into the love for varieties and novelties. With efforts in lakes in Kazakhstan. They formed interspecific improving its aquaculture performance through hybrids over time, and there may be no pure tailor-made feed and genetics (for example, whitefish species in the lakes for a long time. selected breeding), Caspian salmon could Larvae used to restock the lakes are often become a promising aquaculture species in considered peled larvae because large-size Kazakhstan in the long run. fish are used as broodstock. Consequently, Whitefish large-size whitefish are recorded as ‘peled’ The KFDP set a target of annual aquaculture from aquaculture, whereas small whitefish are production of 10,470 tons of whitefish in 2030. recorded as ‘ripus’ from capture fisheries. TABLE E27: WHITEFISH PRODUCTION IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2018 AND 2019 Capture production Aquaculture production (tons) (tons) Total fishery Region Ripus (small-size Peled (large-size production (tons) whitefish) whitefish) 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 Kazakhstan 104.0 95.0 254.0 221.0 358 316 North Kazakhstan 1.5 1.5 254.0 213.0 255 215 East Kazakhstan 92.0 86.0 0.3 7.7 93 94 Akmola 10.0 7.0 10 7 Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. 134 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS Insufficient domestic demand for whitefish ി While the price of small dried/smoked whitefish was around KZT 1,600/kg ($3.81/ Most of the whitefish production in Kazakhstan kg), that of large smoked whitefish was is for domestic consumption. In 2020, the around KZT 2,500/kg ($5.95/kg). average first-sale price was KZT 421/kg ($1/ kg) (Table E28). According to estimates, income and population growth in Kazakhstan could increase the ി The wholesale price of frozen whole domestic demand for whitefish by 228 tons whitefish varied from KZT 500/kg ($1.67/kg) between 2018 and 2030. Given 358 tons of to KZT 1,000/kg ($2.38/kg). The larger the baseline whitefish production in Kazakhstan, fish, the higher the price. the domestic whitefish demand in 2030 tends ി The retail price of frozen gutted peled was to be around 600 tons, which is trivial compared sold at KZT 1,400/kg ($3.33/kg). to the 10,470 tons of production target in 2030. TABLE E28: WHOLESALE OR RETAIL PRICE OF WHITEFISH PRODUCTS IN KAZAKHSTAN Location Type Product KZT/kg $/kg Date Karagandy region Wholesale Ripus, frozen whole 500 1.19 16/12/2020 East Kazakhstan Wholesale Ripus, frozen whole (70–120 g) 580 1.38 30/11/2020 North Kazakhstan Wholesale Peled, fresh or frozen 700 1.67 01/09/2020 North Kazakhstan Wholesale Peled, frozen whole 900 2.14 03/01/2020 Kostanay Wholesale Peled, frozen whole (400 g–500 g) 1,000 2.38 03/01/2021 Akmola Retail Peled, frozen gutted 1,400 3.33 22/12/2020 East Kazakhstan   Ripus, dried whole 1,700 4.46 01/05/2019 East Kazakhstan   Ripus, smoked gutted 1,500 3.94 01/05/2019 East Kazakhstan Wholesale Ripus/peled/nelma, hot-smoked 1,600 3.81 04/01/2021 East Kazakhstan   Peled, cold-smoked, gutted (350 g–2 kg) 2,400–2,600 6.30–6.82 01/05/2019 Akmola Retail Peled, hot-smoked 2,400 5.71 03/01/2021 Shymkent city Retail Peled, hot-smoked, from Akmola 4,500 10.71 19/12/2020 Data source: Estimates based on research for this report. Unclear export market prospect for for fresh/chilled whitefish and $3.86/kg for whitefish frozen products. The other is Saudi Arabia that imported cheaper whitefish yet at higher While FAO statistics record 14 countries/ volume. territories importing fresh and/or frozen whole whitefish during 1976–2018, only concrete data While FAO statistics record 12 countries/ for two importing countries are recorded for territories exporting fresh and/or frozen whole 2018 (Table E29). One is the United States of whitefish during 1976–2017, Canada is the only America which imported 2,600 tons of fresh/ country with concrete whitefish export data chilled and frozen whitefish with $5.38/kg shown in the FAO statistics. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 135 TABLE E29: INTERNATIONAL MARKETS OF FRESH OR FROZEN WHITEFISH, 2018 Importer Product Value ($, thousands) Quantity (tons) Price ($/kg) Fresh/chilled whole whitefish (HS030219) 10,183 1,893 5.38 United States of America Frozen whole whitefish (HS030319) 2,758 714 3.86 Fresh/chilled whole whitefish (HS030219) 6,442 4,743 1.36 Saudi Arabia Frozen whole whitefish (HS030319) 1,204 595 2.02 Data source: FAO. According to UN Comtrade, Kazakhstan However, judging from the information in exported 2.6 tons ($42,000; $15.97/kg) of Table E29 and Table E30, the export market fresh/chilled salmonids nei (HS030219) in capacity for whitefish products appears to be 2018 to Austria, and it also exported 158 tons much less than for trout products, even though ($364,000; $2.31/kg) of frozen salmonids Kazakhstan has a similar production target for nei (HS030319) to three countries (Table rainbow trout and whitefish. E30). Part or most of the products could be Way forward for whitefish production in whitefish. Kazakhstan As whitefish is not a major fish commodity with According to FAO statistics, world whitefish a specific 6-digit HS code, international trade production dropped by half from 56,905 tons statistics (for example, FAO or UN Comtrade) in 1990 to 26,853 tons in 2018 because of the may not capture all the whitefish importing or decline in the capture fisheries production, exporting countries or all whitefish products whereas the aquaculture production increased (for example, smoked or dried whitefish). from 1,572 tons to 4,413 tons (Table E31). TABLE E30: KAZAKHSTAN’S EXPORT OF FRESH/CHILLED OR FROZEN SALMONIDS NEI, 2018 Kazakhstan’s export Tons Value ($, thousands) Price ($/kg) Frozen salmonids nei (HS030319) World 158.0 364.0 2.31 Kyrgyz Republic 125.0 320.0 2.57 China 31.0 42.0 1.35 Georgia 2.0 2.6 1.30 Fresh salmonids nei (HS030219) World 2.6 42.0 15.97 Austria 2.6 42.0 15.97 Data source: UN Comtrade. 136 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS TABLE E31: WORLD PRODUCTION OF WHITEFISH (COREGONIDAE) Year Capture Aquaculture Total 1990 55,333 1,572 56,905 2000 39,243 2,346 41,589 2010 37,399 5,017 42,416 2015 21,840 4,957 26,797 2016 23,407 5,719 29,126 2017 22,401 5,310 27,711 2018 22,440 4,413 26,853 Data source: FAO. In 2018, all major whitefish producing aquaculture whitefish producer with 3,558 countries were in Europe or Northern America tons of production. The global experience (Table E32). Canada was the largest capture indicates that Kazakhstan’s 10,000 tons target fisheries whitefish producer with 7,706 tons of whitefish production in 2030 tends to be of production, whereas Russia was the largest challenging. TABLE E32: MAJOR WHITEFISH PRODUCING COUNTRIES, 2018 Whitefish capture fisheries production (tons) Whitefish aquaculture production (tons) Canada 7706 Russian Federation 3,558 Finland 4,694 Finland 840 United States of America 2,867 Switzerland 10 Russian Federation 2,096 Czechia 5 Finland 1,788   Sweden 1,227   Switzerland 673   Germany 350   Estonia 308   Sweden 220   Other 511   World 22,440   4,413 Data source: FAO. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 137 Under this situation, Kazakhstan may be better increase production cost. off pursuing a niche species development Catfish strategy to focus on adding value to whitefish. The focus in the short term could be on improving Catfishes are the seventh largest species the productivity of whitefish stock enhancement group accounting for 5% of global aquaculture operations, the quality of whitefish products, production in 2018.58 According to the and the efficiency of whitefish value chain. national statistics, Kazakhstan captured There could be a genetic improvement program 1,013 tons of wels catfish (Silurus glanis) in to develop better seed stock. A pilot test could 2018 (primarily from Atyrau and Almaty), and be conducted to assess the technical and the production could be much greater when economic performance of whitefish farming. unreported production is accounted for. Most Only when there are clear, substantial market of Kazakhstan’s wels catfish production went prospects should Kazakhstan pursue semi- to domestic consumption, and their average intensive or intensive whitefish farming. first-sale price in 2020 was only KZT 117/kg ($0.28/kg). Nonnative warmwater species In 2018, Kazakhstan imported 383 tons of In the KFDP, three nonnative, warmwater species catfish fillets (product weight), including 246 (that is, catfish, tilapia, and barramundi) appear tons of relatively cheap fillets from Vietnam in the target production list. As these species (mostly Pangasius fillets) and 137 tons of more cannot survive the cold winter in Kazakhstan, expensive fillets from Russia. The country there is little chance that they become invasive also imported a small amount of fresh/chilled species. However, their ill-adaptation to the catfish fillets and frozen catfish from Russia climate conditions in Kazakhstan tends to (Table E33). TABLE E33: KAZAKHSTAN’S IMPORT OF CATFISH PRODUCTS, 2018 Products Tons $, thousands $/kg Catfish, frozen fillet (HS030462) 383.0 647.0 1.69 Vietnam 246.0 264.0 1.07 Russian Federation 137.0 383.0 2.80 Catfish, fresh/chilled fillet (HS030432) 2.0 6.5 3.25 Russian Federation 2.0 6.5 3.23 Catfish, frozen (HS030324) 0.8 2.3 3.07 Russian Federation 0.8 2.3 3.07 Data source: UN Comtrade. 58 FAO. 2020. “Top 10 Species Groups in Global Aquaculture 2018.” WAPI factsheet. www.fao.org/3/ca9383en/ca9383en.pdf 138 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS In 2018, Kazakhstan exported 253 tons of country also exported a small amount of frozen frozen whole catfish (HS030324), primarily to catfish fillets (HS030462) and fresh/chilled Russia and other neighboring countries, and the catfish fillets (HS030432) with much higher average price of the export was $0.99/kg. The prices (Table E34). TABLE E34: KAZAKHSTAN’S EXPORT OF CATFISH PRODUCTS, 2018 Products Tons $, thousands $/kg Catfish, frozen whole (HS030324) 253.1 251.7 0.99 Russian Federation 129.7 78.0 0.60 Ukraine 65.3 89.4 1.37 Georgia 37.3 70.9 1.90 Uzbekistan 20.5 11.9 0.58 Netherlands 0.3 1.6 6.03 Catfish, frozen fillet (HS030462) 21.9 71.8 3.29 Russian Federation 10.1 15.3 1.52 Germany 5.4 27.1 5.00 Romania 3.4 19.4 5.71 Georgia 2.0 5.2 2.61 Czechia 0.6 1.6 2.72 Austria 0.3 3.1 9.23 Catfish, fresh/chilled fillet (HS030432) 3.4 19.4 5.64 Georgia 2.0 5.8 2.89 Austria 1.4 13.6 9.49 Data source: UN Comtrade. With unreported catfish production accounted with skin or KZT 1,250/kg ($2.98/kg) with no for, the estimated per capita catfish consumption skin. A variety of dried/smoked catfish products in 2018 was 0.35 kg (live weight), which was were also offered at various prices (Table lower than that of carps, roach, or perch/pike/ E35). Notably, the expensive cured catfish branded ‘Balkhash’ (KZT 6,960/kg) is made of pikeperch yet higher than salmon, whitefish, extraordinarily large catfish (sometime around sturgeons, and rainbow trout. 100 kg), and cured fillet of this fatty fish, which In 2020, frozen catfish fillets were offered by tastes like a piece of smoked fatty meat, is a online fish stores at KZT 1,100/kg ($2.62/kg) delicacy loved by Kazakhstanis. CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 139 TABLE E35: RETAIL PRICE OF CATFISH PRODUCTS IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2020 Retail price from online stores Product Source KZT/kg $/kg Fillet Catfish, fillet with skin 1,100 2.62 Rybprom Catfish, fillet 1,250 2.98 Khamit Dried/salted/smoked Catfish steak air-dried 1,450 3.45 Radovnya (Kostanay city) Catfish, cold-smoked, sliced 2,600 6.19 Sapa-M LLP (Kostanay) Catfish cured (Balkhash) 6,960 16.57 Instashop (Almaty city) Catfish cold-smoked tail 630 1.50 Sapa-M LLP (Kostanay) Catfish soup set 600 1.43 Sapa-M LLP (Kostanay) Data source: Estimates based on research for this report. The KFDP sets a target of 188.64 tons of present. However, it could be a better candidate aquaculture production of catfish (Clarias sp.) for catfish farming in Kazakhstan in the long run. in 2030. The above analysis indicates that the Barramundi existing domestic and export market potential apparently cannot accommodate the large The KFDP sets a target of 1,333 tons of production expansion. barramundi aquaculture production in 2030. Barramundi (Lates calcarifer) is a warmwater More importantly, Clarias sp. (for example, aquaculture species popular in Southeastern African catfish C. gariepinus) are warmwater Asia and Eastern Asia, which accounted for, species that do not adapt well with cold weather respectively, 68% and 18% of the 81,000 tons conditions in Kazakhstan. Even the south of world barramundi aquaculture production in of Kazakhstan may not have a long enough 2018. summer to complete a production cycle in open Similar to the case of African catfish, farming farming systems (for example, pond or cage). barramundi (a warmwater species) tends to be RAS can be used to farm the species. Yet, the expensive in Kazakhstan. Yet, the species may cost tends to be expensive. The utilization not command a price premium to compensate of hot water resources, such as wastewater the disadvantage of the high production cost. from power plants or geothermal water (for Barramundi is a perch-like fish like pikeperch and example, hot springs), may allow some small- European perch; hence, it may not bring a novel scale African catfish farming operation in cold taste to Kazakhstani consumers. It is less known places; yet such farming systems are unlikely outside Asia and does not have the fame of to sustain large-scale production. salmon. Thus, the domestic market prospect for The lack of interest in developing wels catfish the species may not be promising. As to export, as an aquaculture species is understandable barramundi tends to be a more expensive raw because of its relatively abundant supply at material (compared to pikeperch from capture 140 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS fisheries) for the processing industry, and it aquaculture species group with 6 million tons does not seem to have advantages in taste, of global production in 2018, and it is the most texture, nutrients, or popularity over pikeperch popular aquaculture species cultivated in over in the European market. In any case, it tends 120 countries. to be difficult for Kazakhstan to compete with In 2018, Kazakhstan imported 117 tons ($2.47/ Southeastern and Eastern Asian countries over kg) of frozen tilapia fillets as well as a small barramundi export. amount of fresh/chilled tilapia fillets and Therefore, although barramundi has relatively frozen whole tilapia. Thus, the 50 tons of mature farming technology compared to tilapia production could be absorbed by the pikeperch and European perch, its aquaculture domestic market through import substitution. prospect in Kazakhstan deserves further However, farming tilapia (a warmwater species) investigation. in Kazakhstan entails a special farming system Tilapia that gets access to warm water at an acceptable The KFDP sets a target of 50 tons of annual cost. In addition, as a low-value fish, a 50 ton tilapia aquaculture production in Kazakhstan operation may not have enough economies of from 2021 onward. Tilapia is the fourth largest scale to be profitable. TABLE E36: SUBNATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE PRODUCTION OF CARP SPECIES IN KAZAKHSTAN, 2019 European All carp species, including Common carp Asian carps minnows Region Capture = Total Total Total (ranked by Total Capture (tons) Capture (tons) Capture (tons) Culture (tons) Culture (tons) Culture (tons) total carp production) Share (%) Share (%) Share (%) Share (%) Tons Tons Tons Kazakhstan 24,891 4,001 28,892 100.0 19,617 100.0 1,990 3,480 5,470 100.0 3,284 521 3,805 100.0 Tons Atyrau 6,943 — 6,943 24.0 5,449 27.8 654 — 654 12.0 840 — 840 22.1 East 5,738 117 5,855 20.3 5,647 28.8 8 117 125 2.3 83 — 83 2.2 Kazakhstan Turkistan 1,858 3,657 5,515 19.1 651 3.3 229 3,138 3,367 61.6 978 519 1,497 39.3 Almaty 3,984 42 4,026 13.9 3,466 17.7 328 42 370 6.8 190 — 190 5.0 Kyzylorda 3,615 3,615 12.5 3,263 16.6 209 209 3.8 143 143 3.8 Karagandy 600 90 690 2.4 385 2.0 64 90 154 2.8 150 — 150 4.0 Zhambyl 681 — 681 2.4 532 2.7 102 — 102 1.9 48 — 48 1.3 North 470 58 528 1.8 15 0.1 41 56 97 1.8 414 2 416 10.9 Kazakhstan CONTENTS Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products 141 TABLE E.36 European All carp species, including Common carp Asian carps minnows Region Capture = Total Total Total (ranked by Total Capture (tons) Capture (tons) Capture (tons) Culture (tons) Culture (tons) Culture (tons) total carp production) Share (%) Share (%) Share (%) Share (%) Tons Tons Tons Tons Akmola 279 — 279 1.0 59 0.3 55 — 55 1.0 166 — 166 4.4 Mangystau 230 — 230 0.8 73 0.4 156 — 156 2.9 0 — — 0.0 Kostanay 190 — 190 0.7 2 0.0 57 — 57 1.0 132 — 132 3.5 Aktobe 166 11 177 0.6 30 0.2 76 11 87 1.6 60 — 60 1.6 West 90 — 90 0.3 44 0.2 8 — 8 0.1 38 — 38 1.0 Kazakhstan Pavlodar 46 — 46 0.2 3 0.0 1 — 1 0.0 42 — 42 1.1 Data source: Bureau of National Statistics, Kazakhstan. 142 Market Growth Potential for Kazakhstan Fisheries and Aquaculture Products CONTENTS