Approach Paper Democratic Republic of Congo: Country Program Evaluation July 2, 2025 1. Background and Context Purpose 1.1 This Country Program Evaluation (CPE) will assess the performance of the World Bank Group’s assistance to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) between FY 2013 and FY24. It spans three periods: (i) the FY13–17 Country Assistance Strategy, (ii) the period from FY18 to FY21 during which the Bank Group operated without a strategy, and (iii) the FY22–26 Country Partnership Framework (CPF). The evaluation seeks to identify lessons to inform future Bank Group engagements in the DRC, including the next CPF, which is due to be approved in 2026. The audience is the Bank Group’s Board of Executive Directors, Bank Group management and staff working on the DRC program, the government of the DRC, and other in-country stakeholders. Its findings and lessons may also be relevant for Bank Group engagements with other resource-rich countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV). Country Context 1.2 The DRC is richly endowed with natural resources. The country has large mineral deposits, including copper, cobalt, cassiterite, and coltan, which are essential for electronics and battery manufacturers. It also possesses some of the world’s biggest diamond and gold reserves. The Congo Basin is Africa’s most extensive forest and the second largest carbon sink in the world. The DRC has significant agricultural potential, with 51 million hectares of unexploited cultivable land (World Bank 2023b). In addition, the DRC has a hydropower potential estimated at 100 gigawatts, mainly from the Inga Dam site on the Congo River. It represents a substantial underused energy resource that could deliver electricity to neighboring countries, yet currently only 2.5 percent is exploited (World Bank 2022b). 1.3 Despite its vast natural resources, the DRC remains among the poorest countries in the world. The number of Congolese living on less than US$2.15 (2017 purchasing power parity) a day increased from 51 million in 2012 to 57.8 million in 2020 (World Bank 2025b). The DRC’s Human Capital Index stood at 0.37 in 2020, the 11th lowest in the region. The DRC is home to one-tenth of people worldwide without access to electricity, with the number of people without access increasing from 60.1 million in 2013 to 70.2 million in 2020 (World Bank 2025b). Only 14 percent of the population has 1 access to improved sanitation (World Bank 2022b). Indicators of human development are similarly dire. The incidence of stunted growth of children has increased from 42.7 percent of under 5-year-olds in 2013 to 44.7 percent in 2023, the 10th highest number globally, putting these children at risk of lifelong cognitive and physical disability (World Bank 2025b). An estimated 97 percent of 10-year-olds are unable to read or understand simple text (World Bank 2018). 1.4 Weak governance is a fundamental factor contributing to the DRC’s persistent poverty and inequitable conditions, as well as inadequate service delivery. Persistently low scores across all dimensions of the Worldwide Governance Indicators (figure 1.1)1 reflect entrenched institutional weaknesses (World Bank 2024b). These weaknesses are particularly evident in three interrelated areas: the extractive sector, the tax system, and public financial management (PFM). Inadequate oversight of the extractive sector and state-owned enterprises (SOEs), compounded by elite capture (a form of corruption in which public resources are biased for the benefit of a few high-status individuals to the detriment of the larger population), limits the sector’s contribution to public revenues. Complex tax systems and weak tax administration further constrain revenue collection. Meanwhile, shortcomings in PFM systems undermine resource allocation and the efficient use of public funds. Together, these governance deficiencies constrain the state’s ability to deliver services and respond to the needs of its citizens (World Bank 2021a, 2022b). 1.5 Public sector reform in the DRC takes place within a complex political economy shaped by rent distribution arrangements, uneven reform implementation, and weak oversight institutions. The government plays an active role in managing this suboptimal equilibrium and maintaining the status quo that benefits powerful stakeholders to maintain elite cohesion and political stability (Bertelsmann Stiftung 2024). This dynamic often results in uneven reform progress. For example, while the DRC has made notable progress toward meeting transparency obligations under the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, the extractive sector remains largely nontransparent in practice.2 Regulatory ambiguity and weak law enforcement perpetuate these patterns.3 Key oversight bodies, including the Supreme Audit Institution, have been systematically underfunded, undermining their ability to perform core functions. Meanwhile, the National Assembly has demonstrated limited engagement in financial oversight, in part because of political alignment with the executive (World Bank 2018). 2 Figure 1.1. Evolution of Worldwide Governance Indicators a. Regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. 3 b. Voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence/terrorism, government effectiveness Source: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators. 1.6 Reliance on extractive industries and imports of essential goods, and a small formal economy with a large reach of SOEs, makes the DRC’s economy vulnerable to shocks and hinders the creation of inclusive jobs. The formal sector primarily consists of a small number of foreign companies and long-established local conglomerates (World Bank 2022c). SOEs, which account for approximately 8 percent of GDP, are among the largest formal employers in the country, primarily in infrastructure and public services 4 (World Bank 2019).4 The mining sector has traditionally accounted for a large share of government revenues. The concentration has further increased during the evaluation period, with exports of minerals, metals, or related chemicals increasing from 94 percent of total goods exports in 2013 to 98 percent in 2022 (figure 1.2). Because of its high capital intensity, the formal mining sector is creating relatively few jobs, leading to limited spillovers. Formal wage employment is limited, with 98 percent of firms consisting of informal micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs; World Bank 2023b). Heavy reliance on imports for essential goods—especially food and fuel—further increases the economy’s exposure to shocks such as global price fluctuations and supply chain disruptions (IMF 2025). Figure 1.2. Annual Exports Over Time 25 20 Other Export value (US$, billions) Extractives 15 10 5 0 Year Source: Atlas of Economic Complexity. 1.7 Due to the economy’s heavy reliance on the extractive sector, growth is linked to commodity cycles. After a period of robust growth at the start of the evaluation period, in 2016 growth sharply declined because of a drop in commodity prices and heightened political instability (World Bank 2025b). A brief economic rebound in 2018, driven by a one-time surge in mineral extraction, proved short-lived as the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains and dampened commodity demand. Average annual growth slowed to 4 percent in 2016–21 (World Bank 2025b). In subsequent years, the global recovery from COVID-19 increased demand for critical resources such as cobalt for electric vehicle batteries and copper, fueling a strong rebound and GDP growth averaging 8.7 percent annually in 2022–23 (World Bank 2025b). 5 1.8 Following the heavily indebted poor countries completion point, the DRC has made notable progress in fiscal management and debt sustainability. During the evaluation period, the overall fiscal position remained largely balanced or in surplus, supported by mining revenues. Public debt declined from 18 percent of GDP in 2013 to an estimated 11 percent in 2024 (IMF 2024b). However, the heavy reliance on volatile mining revenues exposes public finances to commodity price shocks, while weak tax collection, driven by a large informal economy, complex tax policies, and inefficiencies in tax administration, limits domestic revenue mobilization. Fiscal procyclicality resulted in changeable government spending (IMF 2025). Moreover, inefficient public spending weakened public service delivery and constrained investment in critical sectors such as health, education, and transport. 1.9 The DRC’s development challenges are exacerbated by ongoing conflict, displacement, and political instability. Despite the end of the Congo Wars in 2003, conflict and violence persist, particularly in the eastern provinces of North Kivu, South Kivu, and Ituri, where numerous armed groups continue to operate (World Bank 2018). These groups, often vying for control of mineral resources, fertile land, and illicit activities, contribute to the region’s instability and violence (World Bank 2022b). Additionally, the country faces significant challenges related to displacement, with over 5.6 million internally displaced persons and over half a million refugees from neighboring countries (UNHCR 2025).5 The complex political context, combined with external interference and regional dynamics, further complicates efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability in the DRC (World Bank 2018). Government Vision 1.10 The evaluation period spans two government strategies. The government’s Second-Generation Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper 2011–2015 (GRSP-2; Ministry of Planning 2011) focused on four pillars: strengthened governance and peace; diversification of the economy; improving access to basic social services; and protecting the environment. Due to political disruption, no government strategy was in place between 2015 and 2019. The 2019–23 Plan National Strategique de Developpement (Democratic Republic of Congo 2019) developed a vision of developing the extractive and agricultural sectors with a view to building a diversified economy that would enable inclusive growth. The Plan National Strategique de Developpement is organized in five pillars: human capital development; strengthening of governance and peace; growth, diversification, and economic transformation; regional development and infrastructure; and environmental protection. It set a goal of reaching upper-middle- income country status by 2030, based on agricultural transformation. 6 Priorities for Meeting the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Development Challenges Governance 1.11 Limited fiscal space and inefficient public spending constrain the government’s ability to deliver basic services and respond to citizens’ needs. Weak governance in the extractive sector, structural weaknesses in the tax system, and deficiencies in PFM undermine the state’s capacity to mobilize, allocate, and use resources effectively. These challenges limit the flow of resources to public services, reinforcing a cycle of institutional fragility and eroding trust in institutions. 1.12 Weak governance and oversight in the extractive sector weaken its contribution to domestic revenue mobilization (DRM). Inadequate oversight of SOEs and ineffective enforcement of mining and fiscal regulations result in substantial revenue losses. The implementation of the Mining Code remains inconsistent, with some companies benefiting from discretionary exemptions that erode the tax base. Additionally, Gécamines, the SOE managing strategic public assets, frequently enters into opaque joint ventures with private firms, often failing to disclose key financial transactions. While the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative has promoted greater transparency, compliance remains incomplete, and substantial revenue flows from SOEs remain off- budget (World Bank 2021a). 1.13 A complex tax system, tax administration weaknesses, and nontransparent practices impede efficient revenue collection. The country has a highly fragmented tax structure with numerous levies imposed at the central and subnational levels, creating inefficiencies and making compliance burdensome. Tax and customs administration is further undermined by manual processing and inadequate internal controls across key revenue agencies. These inefficiencies increase the risks of discretionary tax enforcement and revenue leakages. As a result, DRM (excluding grants) remained low throughout the evaluation period, reaching 13.7 percent of GDP in 2023, up from 13 percent in 2013, after it peaked at 15.4 percent in 2022, driven by the commodity price boom. In 2023, the gap between the DRC and the Sub-Saharan Africa average stood at 5.1 points, while the 10-year average difference was 6.8 points (IMF 2024a). Low DRM leaves the government heavily dependent on external financing and unable to meet social spending needs. 1.14 Deficiencies in PFM undermine the government’s ability to deliver basic services and respond to citizens’ needs. Budget allocation is distorted, and budget credibility is low, with large deviations between approved and executed budgets in key social sectors, reflecting inadequate alignment between country priorities and resource allocation. Weak budget execution controls, nontransparent cash disbursement processes, and 7 inefficient public procurement—including widespread direct contracting and lack of oversight—increase fraud risks and reduce value for money. Additionally, the lack of mechanisms to track resources allocated to service delivery units and insufficient reporting on spending limit accountability and evidence-based decision-making (World Bank 2021a). These structural weaknesses undermine the government’s ability to improve social service delivery and invest in critical infrastructure, further eroding public trust in institutions. Inclusive Diversification of the Economy 1.15 The dominance of the mining sector and a highly concentrated formal private sector hinder diversification and stable growth. The formal sector is highly concentrated and dominated by local conglomerates, foreign companies, and SOEs (World Bank 2018). The lack of a level playing field and competition hinders the emergence of new firms and firm growth. The concentration of mining exports makes the country vulnerable to commodity price fluctuations. A stronger, more diversified private sector is a precondition for economic stability (World Bank 2023b). 1.16 The private sector is constrained by several factors, such as lack of access to finance and to electricity. The main constraints to private sector development at the start of the evaluation period, as reported by firms, were access to electricity and finance (World Bank 2013b). Access to electricity remained a challenge throughout the evaluation period, reflecting underinvestment in generation infrastructure. At the start of the period, fewer than 10 percent of firms were using banks to finance investments or working capital (World Bank 2013b). The DRC remains among the countries with the lowest credit to GDP ratio at 7.5 percent, and the banking system is highly concentrated, with the three largest banks holding 63 percent of market share (Deloitte 2023). 1.17 Insecurity and conflict contribute to an unstable environment that deters investment and disrupts economic activities. Instability, coupled with weak governance and corruption, undermines the rule of law and the enforcement of property rights, hindering private sector development. Additional constraints include a weak business environment and insufficient transport infrastructure (World Bank 2019, 2022c). 1.18 Lack of diversification means that the economy has generated insufficient jobs for a young and rapidly growing urban population and limits the scope for DRM. Capital intensive industrial mining does not create employment, but informal artisanal mining contributes to rural incomes. At the start of the evaluation period, the formal private sector represented 1 percent of the workforce, while low-productivity agriculture accounted for 61 percent of employment. At the time, 45.8 percent of the working-age population were not part of the labor force or engaged in unpaid work, while another 39.7 were self-employed, primarily in the informal sector (World Bank 8 2017). The limited size of the formal private sector reduces the tax base and thus the scope for DRM. Fragility and Conflict 1.19 The drivers of conflict in the DRC are deeply rooted and multifaceted. A governance system dominated by a small group of political elites has hindered the development of a social contract based on mutual accountability between the state and its citizens (box 1.1). This elite capture is perpetuated by a nondiversified economy favoring elite interests, maintained through political settlements centered on rent- seeking and natural resource competition. High levels of exclusion and lack of economic opportunities trap a young, poorly educated population in poverty, fostering illicit activities or violence. The legacy of trauma and displacement from armed conflict has normalized violence, including sexual and gender-based violence, eroding social cohesion. 1.20 Numerous local conflict systems, exacerbated by dysfunctional security and justice systems, further complicate the situation. Additionally, the DRC’s position within an international conflict system invites frequent outside interference, with foreign actors using Congolese territory for proxy battles over land, minerals, and other resources (World Bank 2022b). 1.21 During the evaluation period, the conflict and security landscape became more complex. The DRC is marked by distinct subnational conflict hotspots, each with unique dynamics. In the eastern DRC, the aftermath of the Congo Wars has led to a proliferation of armed groups vying for control over fertile land and mining sites, resulting in ongoing violence and human rights violations. Most recently, the government lost control of Goma and Bukavu to the resurgent M23 rebels, prompting an evacuation of the Bank Group liaison office. Conflict has also emerged in other parts of the country. The Grand Kasai region, once spared from intercommunal conflict, experienced a rapid descent into violence due to the Kamwina Nsapu rebellion, driven by local grievances and political manipulation in 2016–17. Yumbi, a previously peaceful area, saw an explosion of violence in December 2018, triggered by a dispute between the Banunu and Batende communities, leading to significant population displacement and destruction. Lastly, Kinshasa, the capital city, faces political and social tensions, with increased levels of youth unemployment and gang activity exacerbating the risk of violence. 1.22 The security challenge is further compounded by the presence of organized crime networks that exploit the country’s natural resources and traffic arms, drugs, and people. The DRC scores fifth on the Global Organized Crime Index and highest among African nations (Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime 2023). The overall deterioration of the security landscape has led to a rise in civilian casualties 9 (figure 1.3). As a result of this violence, the DRC has the highest number of internally displaced people in Africa, resulting in acute food insecurity, malnutrition, and persistent epidemics, with 12 Ebola outbreaks over the past 40 years (UNHCR 2023). These challenges erode development gains and test the Bank Group’s ability to operate. Box 1.1. Drivers of Fragility in the Democratic Republic of Congo 1. Governance/social contract: A governance system that is based on exercising power downward under the control of a small group of political elites has hampered the building of a social contract based on a mutually accountable, two-way relationship between the state and citizens. 2. Nondiversification/elite capture: The nondiversified and poorly redistributive economy strongly favors elite interests and is kept in place by a continuously renegotiated political settlement based on competition for natural resource capture. 3. Exclusion: High levels of exclusion and an utter lack of economic opportunities keep an extremely poor and young population with very low education levels trapped with no prospect of social mobility, creating fertile ground for youth to seek out illicit alternatives or resort to violence. 4. Trauma and social cohesion: A legacy of trauma and displacement from armed conflict resulting in the normalization and commodification of the use of violence, including sexual and gender-based violence, has eroded social cohesion. 5. Local conflict systems: The Democratic Republic of Congo is marked by numerous distinct local conflict systems, reflected in a fragmentation that is often reproduced by a political discourse around group belonging and exacerbated by dysfunctional security and justice systems. 6. Outside interference: The Democratic Republic of Congo is situated within an international conflict system with frequent outside interference, using Congolese territory to fight proxy battles for political and financial gain, including through competition for access to land, minerals, and other natural resources. Source: World Bank 2021b. 10 Figure 1.3. Trends in Conflict Events and Related Fatalities 7,000 Nord-Ubangi Equateur Sankuru 6,000 Sud-Ubangi Lomami Conflict-related fatalities (no.) Mongala 5,000 Kasai-Oriental Tshuapa Haut-Lomami 4,000 Bas-Uele Kwilu Kwango 3,000 Kongo-Central Lualaba Haut-Uele 2,000 Tshopo Maniema Haut-Katanga Kinshasa 1,000 Kasai Tanganyika Mai-Ndombe 0 Kasai-Central 2021 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2022 2023 2024 Sud-Kivu Ituri Year Nord-Kivu Source: Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED); www.acleddata.com. Note: This map has been cleared by the World Bank Group cartography unit. 2. The World Bank Group in the Democratic Republic of Congo 2.1 Bank Group engagement during the period was based on two strategies, separated by a period from FY18 to FY21 without a formal country engagement strategy in place. After reaching the heavily indebted poor countries completion point in 2010, the World Bank Group’s’s engagement was guided by the FY13–16 Country Assistance Strategy (CAS), which was updated and extended to FY17 through a Performance and Learning Review. The preparation of the new CPF was postponed because of the delay of the 2016 election until December 2018 and delays in forming a coalition government following the election.6 Constant conflict in the eastern provinces, and a violent crisis in the Kasai region in 2016–17, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, caused further disruptions. As a result, the Bank Group operated without a strategy from FY18 to FY21 until the FY22–26 CPF was prepared (figure 2.1). 11 Figure 2.1. The World Bank Group Program over the Evaluation Period Source: Independent Evaluation Group. Note: CAS = Country Assistance Strategy; CPF = Country Partnership Framework; DPF = development policy financing; DRC = Democratic Republic of Congo; HIPC = heavily indebted poor country 12 Analytical Underpinnings of the World Bank Group Strategy 2.2 The 2011 Country Economic Memorandum set the stage for the 2013 CAS. The report provided an analysis of the fragile state of the country and governance challenges, as well as the conditions for private sector development, including priorities for infrastructure investments. It made recommendations for the sequencing of interventions, including the piloting of a growth pole approach. The report analyzed the interactions between three areas of policy intervention, state capacity, infrastructure, and private sector development, and set the stage for a more spatially focused approach. 2.3 The 2018 Systematic Country Diagnostic identified a comprehensive set of constraints to economic development and identified a pathway toward sustainable development, forming the basis for the FY22–26 CPF. Strengthening governance in the extractive sector and improving DRM were seen as critical first steps to provide the necessary fiscal space to support macroeconomic stability and finance public spending. Higher revenues, together with administrative reforms, were envisioned to improve the efficiency of government spending and would be the basis to remove infrastructure bottlenecks and raise the quality of human capital. These inputs, together with reforms of the business climate and the creation of financial infrastructure, would allow the private sector to grow and generate jobs and shared prosperity, as well as further tax revenues. The Systematic Country Diagnostic described the DRC as a postconflict fragile state, approaching the DRC’s FCV challenges primarily from a governance angle. 2.4 The Risk and Resilience Allocation (RRA) recommended addressing the DRC’s underlying drivers of conflict while continuing to support the stabilization of postconflict areas. The 2021 RRA described the DRC as conflict affected, postconflict, and fragile to differing degrees across the country. Building on an earlier RRA from 2016, the 2021 RRA identified six main drivers of fragility and suggested a focus on strengthening institutional capacity and economic management by involving citizens and nonstate actors at both central and decentralized levels to enhance accountability, voice, and transparency (see box 1.1). Additionally, it emphasized the importance of equitable service delivery to reinforce state legitimacy. The report presented 26 broad- ranging recommendations, including enhancing citizen engagement, investing in agriculture, improving land management, ensuring transparency in extractive industries, and building partnerships with the United Nations. 2.5 At the project level, the RRA recommended mainstreaming the inclusion of all groups in project design and targeting, systematizing security risk management, enhancing gender-based violence mitigation, and expanding the Geo-Enabling Initiative for Monitoring and Supervision for more integrated support. These recommendations 13 aimed to create a more inclusive and resilient society, ultimately fostering peace and stability in the DRC. 2.6 In 2022, the Country Private Sector Diagnostic provided a diagnostic of cross- cutting constraints on the private sector and identified sector opportunities. The identified constraints included weak governance, fiscal issues, and underperforming SOEs and public-private partnerships. The Country Private Sector Diagnostic also reviewed sector opportunities in seven enabling and seven traded and urban sectors and made recommendations in areas including the management of natural resources, promoting private investments in enabling sectors, and improved governance and business environment. Evolution of World Bank Group Strategy and Intervention Logic 2.7 The Bank Group’s strategy evolved during the evaluation period, with an increased focus on conflict and security and the continued relevance of governance for service delivery as well as support for the private sector to promote jobs and economic diversification. The CAS included three strategic objectives to 1) increase state effectiveness and improve good governance, 2) boost competitiveness to accelerate private sector–led growth and job creation, and 3) improve access to basic social services while raising human capital. These were succeeded by the three focus areas of the CPF: 1) strengthen stabilization efforts for reduced risks of conflict and violence, 2) strengthen systems for improved service delivery and human capital development, and 3) strengthen economic governance for increased private sector investment. Based on the identified key constraints and Bank Group strategic priorities, the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) reconstructed an overarching logic of Bank Group interventions (figure 2.2). 2.8 During the evaluation period, the Bank Group increased the spatial focus of its strategy. In response to the identification of five priority zones by the government (Figure 2.3), the FY13–16 CAS introduced a spatial focus through an AAA product. The FY22–26 CPF expanded on this approach, concentrating investments in three zones that are the most fragile and conflict-affected parts of the DRC and represent potential growth poles along transport corridors. These 10 provinces, representing a quarter of the national territory, are also where 67 percent of the total population resides—the east, Kasais, and poor neighborhoods in Kinshasa and its surroundings (World Bank 2022b). Additionally, the two densely populated northwestern provinces of North and South Ubangi, which have seen an inflow of refugees from the Central African Republic, received refugee-targeted investments financed with resources from the Window for Host Communities and Refugees. 14 Figure 2.2. Logic of World Bank Interventions Source: Independent Evaluation Group. Note: CAS = Country Assistance Strategy; CPF = Country Partnership Framework; DF = driver of fragility; GBV = gender-based violence; PFM = public financial management; PRA = Prevention and Resilience Allocation; SOE = state-owned enterprise. 15 Figure 2.3. Priority Areas Identified in the Country Assistance Strategy and Country Partnership Framework a. Priority areas identified in the Country Assistance Strategy 16 b. Priority Areas Identified in the Country Partnership Framework Source: World Bank Group. Note: CAS = Country Assistance Strategy; CPF = Country Partnership Framework. 17 The Evolution of World Bank Group Support Toward Key Development Challenges World Bank Lending 2.9 The focus of World Bank lending changed significantly during the three periods identified by this evaluation. World Bank lending during the FY13–17 CAS period was concentrated in transportation, public administration, education, and health, which accounted for about 18 percent each of the US$2.5 billion committed (figure 2.4). Lending expanded to over US$4 billion in the FY18–21 interim period, doubling annual commitments despite the absence of a formal strategy. This was accompanied by a more than threefold increase in average project size and an increase in the use of additional finance from 30 percent of projects to 47 percent. The increase in lending was primarily due to a significant expansion of lending for social protection, which was the largest sector during that period, as well as health and education. Together, these three sectors accounted for 73 percent of commitments, while support for public administration and transport decreased. 2.10 Under the FY22–24 CPF, financing has grown even further, increasing annual commitments by an additional 50 percent in the two years since the start of the period. This was partially achieved through the newly received Prevention and Resilience Allocation under the 19th Replenishment of the International Development Association (IDA19). In this period, energy grew to be the largest sector, followed by education, water, and sanitation. Information and communication technology and the financial sector recorded steep increases compared with the previous periods. During the first two periods, commitments were exclusively investment project financing, with the first development policy financing in 16 years committed in 2022 (figure 2.5). 18 Figure 2.4. Evolution of World Bank Lending by Sector and Engagement Cycle 5.0 4.5 Industry and Trade/Service 4.0 Financial Sector 3.5 Info and Communication Lending amount (US$, billions) 3.0 Energy and Extractives Water/Sanit/Waste 2.5 Agriculture 2.0 Public Admin 1.5 Transportation 1.0 Social Protection 0.5 Health 0.0 Education CAS FY13–17 No Strategy FY18–21 CPF FY22–24 Strategy period Source: Independent Evaluation Group Datahub. Figure 2.5. Evolution of World Bank Lending by Instrument and Engagement Cycle 6 5 Lending amount (US$, billions) 4 3 DPF IPF 2 1 0 CAS FY13–17 No Strategy 18–21 CPF FY22–24 Strategy period Source: Independent Evaluation Group Datahub. Note: CAS = Country Assistance Strategy; CPF = Country Partnership Framework; DPF = development policy financing; IPF = investment project financing. 19 2.11 During the evaluation period, the International Development Association (IDA) provided the largest development support. IDA accounted for 29 percent of the total assistance of countries reporting contributions to the Organisation for Economic Co- operation and Development Development Assistance Committee, followed by the United States, the European Union, the Global Fund, and other bilateral development partners (figure 2.6). IDA had a disproportionate role in most major sectors, except health and emergency response, where other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Development Assistance Committee development partners played a disproportionate role.7 2.12 Overall, development partners’ commitments during the evaluation period focused on health and emergency response. These two areas accounted for 41 percent of contributions by countries reporting to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Development Assistance Committee, followed by government institutions, education, and transportation. IDA accounted for 22 percent of health funding, on a par with the United States and the Global Fund. The agency did account for a disproportionate share in most other sectors, accounting for more than 40 percent of government, education, transport, water, conflict/peace/security, social infrastructure, industry, energy, and disaster prevention. 20 Figure 2.6. Development Finance Commitments by Development Partner and Year France 6 Commitment amount (US$, billions) United Kingdom 5 African Development Bank IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) 4 Belgium 3 African Development Fund Germany 2 Global Fund 1 EU Institutions Other 0 United States 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Year International Development Association Source: OECD Development Assistance Committee. International Finance Corporation Investments and Advisory Services 2.13 Engagement by the International Finance Corporation (IFC) during the evaluation period traced IFC’s strategy toward more programmatic engagement. IFC investments during the CAS period were concentrated in extractives and cement and mining, in line with the priority for reengagement in large-scale transformational projects highlighted in the CAS (figure 2.7). Advisory engagement during the period was concentrated in financial markets and the Conflict Affected States in Africa initiative (figure 2.8). During the CPF period, IFC increased its focus on MSME finance through investment and advisory services, shifting away from large-scale investment in industries. Other areas of focus in the significantly scaled-up advisory program included capital market development and initial engagement in the energy sector. During the CPF cycle, IFC scaled up investments in MSME finance and telecommunications with a small program of energy investments based on upstream tools, while a smaller program of advisory activities continued the priorities of the previous cycle. 21 Figure 2.7. Evolution of International Finance Corporation Investments by Sector and Engagement Cycle 200 Investment amount (US$, millions) 180 Oil, Gas, and Mining 160 140 Nonmetallic Mineral 120 Product Manufacturing 100 Telecoms 80 Finance & Insurance 60 40 Electric Power 20 0 Chemicals CAS Interim CPF Agriculture and Forestry Strategy periods Source: Independent Evaluation Group Datahub. Note: CAS = Country Assistance Strategy; CPF = Country Partnership Framework. Figure 2.8. Evolution of International Finance Corporation Advisory Services by Sector and Engagement Cycle 12 Reforms for Private Investment PPP 10 Expenditure amount (US$, millions) Other Manufacturing 8 Investment Climate 6 Funds Fragility Readiness & Forced Displacement 4 Energy Economic Policy Research 2 Cross-Sector 0 Financial Institutions CAS Interim CPF Agribusiness Strategy period Source: Independent Evaluation Group Datahub. Note: CAS = Country Assistance Strategy; CPF = Country Partnership Framework. 22 2.14 The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) issued four guarantees during the evaluation period in telecommunications and energy. The Helios Towers DRC Infraco project consists of a guarantee of US$94.57 million issued in 2014 to support telecommunications infrastructure. During the CPF period, MIGA supported Bboxx Capital DRC in 2021 with a US$13.35 million guarantee to facilitate the provision of energy services, and Nuru, which received two guarantees in 2024 totaling approximately US$50.3 million to support solar hybrid minigrids, complementary to World Bank and IFC engagement in the sector. World Bank Group Support for Addressing Key Priorities Governance 2.15 During the CAS period, the World Bank’s approach to strengthening governance focused on improving the management of financial resources. This included strengthening PFM and transparency at the central government level and in selected provinces. The World Bank also supported reforms to improve intergovernmental fiscal transfers and strengthen human resource management through measures such as retiring overage civil servants and introducing biometric payroll systems. Efforts to improve procurement governance targeted the implementation of a new Procurement Code, while SOE reforms focused on restructuring key public enterprises and improving financial oversight. In the mining sector, World Bank support to improve governance was aligned with the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative value chain framework to strengthen sector management capacity, increase contract transparency, and improve accountability in revenue collection. Additionally, the World Bank planned to engage civil society organizations to enhance demand-side governance and strengthen oversight mechanisms in PFM and the extractive industries. The portfolio comprised four key governance operations and one single operation in the extractive sector.8 2.16 During the period without strategy, the Bank Group continued implementing ongoing operations, while also expanding its support through an additional financing to its PFM and Accountability operation. This included renewed, but limited, support for DRM, and an extension of activities to newly created provinces resulting from the administrative split (Decoupage) of previously participating ones, while maintaining the original geographic scope. Under the DRM component, the operation allocated US$6 million to strengthen national revenue agencies through technical assistance, information technology system upgrades, and institutional capacity building. Advisory services and analytics (ASA) provided insights on key governance reforms, including decentralization, SOE governance, public procurement, and accountability for better service delivery. 23 2.17 The FY22–26 CPF aims to strengthen PFM systems and integrate critical governance reforms into sectoral World Bank engagements. This objective is supported through the governance flagship project ENCORE,9 approved in FY22 with a total financing of US$250 million. The project focuses on strengthening PFM systems at both central and provincial levels, building DRM systems in selected provinces, enhancing the capacity of oversight and accountability institutions such as the Court of Accounts, improving transparency in mining revenue management, and supporting national data collection systems. The CPF also introduced a new approach to the World Bank’s PFM agenda, driven by the adoption of the free primary education policy in 2019 and the persistent fragility and conflict in the eastern DRC. It prioritized strengthening systems to enhance access to social services—particularly in education, health, and social protection—while simultaneously reinforcing PFM at the national and subnational levels. A key element of this shift was also the adoption of results-based financing using Performance-Based Conditions. During the evaluation period, the World Bank did not provide substantial direct support to national revenue agencies.10 Diversification of the Economy and Job Creation 2.18 outcomes included an enhanced business environment, including the creation of growth poles and access to finance, a range of enabling infrastructure, including transport, energy, and information and communication technology, and a boost to agricultural production combined with increased market access. These sectors accounted for 37.1 percent of commitments during the period, with the largest share in transport, followed by energy and agriculture. During this period, the World Bank’s largest project was a US$180 million additional financing to support the recovery of the national railway company Société Nationale des Chemins de fer du Congo and road rehabilitation, as well as the roads component of urban and agricultural projects. In the energy sector, the World Bank initially continued implementing projects supporting the South African Power Pool before shifting toward a focus on national electrification. During this period, IFC focused on large investments in industry sectors while MIGA issued a guarantee for a telecommunications project. 2.19 During the interim period between CAS and CPF, engagement aimed at diversifying the economy declined while the average project size increased. Overall, 20 percent of commitments were in sectors linked to this theme, and nearly three- quarters were concentrated in three large projects. The US$500 million DRC Transport and Connectivity Support project funded investments in roads, airport development, and digital infrastructure. The major engagement in agriculture consisted in the US$350 million National Agriculture Development Program, while a US$300 million project aimed to empower women entrepreneurs and upgrade MSMEs. IFC started investing in financial institutions and stepped up its advisory engagement. 24 2.20 The CPF covered aspects related to the private sector in various focus areas. Aspects of road transport and access to telecommunications services are objectives linked to focus area 1, strengthen stabilization efforts for reduced risks of conflict and violence, which also includes objectives regarding trade in the Great Lakes region. Electricity access is part of focus area 2: strengthen systems for improved service delivery. Focus area 3, strengthen economic management for increased private sector investment, directly addresses economic diversification through an improved business environment, including increased access to finance, private participation in infrastructure, and support for green and resilient agriculture. In the energy sector, the World Bank continued the CAS agenda, expanding access through the US$600 million Access Governance & Reform for the Electricity and Water Sectors Project in coordination with IFC and MIGA support in the sector. Another major project targeted transport connectivity (US$500 million), while both the World Bank (US$400 million) and IFC (US$75 million) supported digital transformation. IFC further invested in financial institutions with a focus on the base of the pyramid. Fragility and Conflict 2.21 The CAS treated fragility and conflict as issues confined to the eastern provinces, concentrating its FCV strategic objective exclusively on this region. In contrast, its other strategic objectives—governance, competitiveness, and social services and human development—were applied to the rest of the country without an FCV lens. During the CAS and interim strategy period, five projects were most directly engaged with conflict: the two stabilization projects, the two Great Lakes regional initiatives, and the gender- based violence project, collectively amounting to US$386.5 million.11 The flagship initiative, the DRC Eastern Recovery Project, has been active since FY14, undergoing significant evolution in its theory of change. Initially, it prioritized community-driven development efforts, focusing on reconstructing schools, health centers, and offices, complemented by social cohesion training. However, over time, the approach shifted toward public works and cash transfers, providing more immediate and impactful short-term relief. 2.22 In 2021, the DRC became eligible for a Prevention and Resilience Allocation (PRA) under IDA19 and again under IDA20. The government formulated 13 milestones centered around governance, justice, security, and inclusion, informed by the RRA analysis (World Bank 2023c). Some milestones fell within IDA’s mandate and expertise while others were supported by partners. The PRA also entailed a recalibration of the portfolio to ensure that operations address at least one structural driver of FCV identified in the 2021 RRA. 25 2.23 A first annual review in 2022 confirmed continued eligibility for US$600 million in IDA19 resources, amounting to 18 percent of total commitments in the IDA19 period. This supported the scale-up of FCV-related operations. The 2023 annual review confirmed access to additional IDA20 resources of US$466 million for FY23. However, because of insufficient progress in FY24, criteria for continued eligibility in FY25 were not met, and the DRC lost access to the PRA worth US$233 million (World Bank 2024a). 2.24 The CPF sought to integrate conflict reduction across the entire portfolio. Guided by the RRA and aligned with PRA requirements, the CPF explicitly committed to “target the entirety of its DRC country portfolio towards preventing and deescalating conflict and violence through development interventions” (World Bank 2024a). To achieve this, the CPF focused on stabilization—encompassing social protection and connectivity infrastructure—alongside human capital development and governance. Its approach aimed to significantly scale up investments in human capital, implement more systematic infrastructure planning, and ensure a strong emphasis on sector governance (World Bank 2021b). For the DRC Eastern Recovery Project, this shift translated into a focus on productive inclusion measures, unconditional cash transfers, and active labor market programs designed to enhance productivity and support youth employment. Additionally, the CPF placed greater emphasis on supporting reform, committing to strengthening institutions across projects, analytics, and sectors while promoting accountability and transparency (World Bank 2021b). Previous and Ongoing Evaluations 2.25 The evaluation will build on findings from previous IEG work. It will review the CAS Completion Report Review and the Completion and Learning Review Validation to assess whether relevant lessons were incorporated into the FY13–16 CAS and the FY22– 26 CPF (table 2.1; World Bank 2013a, 2022a).12 Additionally, it will review relevant thematic evaluations where the DRC was used as a case study to determine whether findings and recommendations were integrated into the program. Case studies finalized during the CPF period will serve as inputs to this CPE. 2.26 The CPE is collaborating with ongoing evaluations to leverage synergies and ensure coherence across related evaluations. Specifically, the energy access component of this evaluation is partnering with the concurrent energy access evaluation, while the FCV component is working closely with the World Bank FCV strategy evaluation. The CPE will apply the framework of the DRC case study used by the energy access evaluation and collaborate on geospatial analysis. Other relevant thematic evaluations will be examined as part of the literature review. 26 Table 2.1. Lessons Learned from Previous Evaluations How Treated in This Theme Recommendation Evaluation Selectivity of programming More sectoral selectivity—IDA resources were spread too EQ 3 thinly across 15 results areas (CASCRR; World Bank 2013a); reflect spatial development dynamics in choice of project locations (CLRV; World Bank 2022a) Flexibility in responding to Preidentify projects to be scaled up or frozen in event of EQ 3 shocks shocks (CLRV); more formal arrangements for ensuring accountability during gaps between country strategies (CLRV) Realism around govt. Work with decentralized entities, including civil society, but To be considered across commitment and capacity choose them carefully and target capacity building (CLRV); the portfolio administrative and SOE reforms suffered from overestimation of capacity (CASCRR/VR) Use of instruments and More flexibility in application of procurement rules To be considered across country systems (CASCRR); more use of knowledge work with local think the portfolio tanks (CASCRR); complement IPF with DPF and IPF-PBCs (CLRV) Use of beneficiary feedback Involve beneficiaries in project design, implementation, To be considered across in design and monitoring and reporting of results, including through digital tools the portfolio such as GEMS (CASCRR) Decentralization of World Strengthen project implementation through field office EQ 3 Bank office outside Kinshasa (CASCRR) Source: Independent Evaluation Group. Note: CASCRR = Country Assistance Strategy Completion Report Review; CLRV = Completion and Learning Review Validation; DPF = development policy financing; EQ = evaluation question; GEMS = Geo-Enabling Initiative for Monitoring and Supervision; IDA= International Development Association; IPF = investment project financing; PBCs = Performance- Based Conditions; SOE = state-owned enterprise. 3. Purpose, Objectives, and Audience 3.1 The objective of this CPE is to assess how the Bank Group has supported the DRC in addressing key development challenges and how that support adapted to changing circumstances and lessons from experience. The evaluation will cover the period FY13–24. Its findings will be designed to inform the new CPF. The primary audience is the World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors, its Committee on Development Effectiveness, Bank Group management and staff working on the DRC, and stakeholders in the DRC, as well as Bank Group teams working in resource-rich and FCV countries that are facing similar development challenges. 4. Scope and Evaluation Questions 4.1 The evaluation questions were carefully selected to ensure strategic focus and relevance. We will focus on three main questions, chosen for their strategic relevance to the Bank Group’s engagement during the evaluation period (figure 2.2) and alignment with the DRC’s development priorities. Areas that seek to answer effectiveness 27 questions also reflect evaluability considerations that require a sufficient number of projects completed or need to be in advanced stages of implementation. These priorities were refined through scoping interviews with the country team. Given the scale and complexity of the country context, the team applied a selectivity filter based on the factors outlined above. As a result, the evaluation does not aim to be comprehensive and will not cover all aspects of Bank Group engagement. Further details are provided in appendix A, which presents the evaluation design matrix. EQ 1: How Well Did the World Bank Design, Adapt, and Implement Its Support to Governance Reforms? EQ 1.1: How Well Did the World Bank Design and Adapt Its Support to Improve Governance of Public Resources? 4.2 This subquestion will assess the extent to which the World Bank’s13 support for strengthening governance—through both lending and nonlending activities—was relevant to addressing the underlying causes of mismanagement of public resources and aligned with country needs and priorities. The assessment will draw on academic and gray literature, World Bank CPFs and strategies, governance-related ASA, and semistructured interviews with stakeholders. It will examine how well governance interventions targeted core challenges, responded to evolving political and institutional contexts, incorporated lessons from implementation, employed appropriate risk mitigation strategies, and demonstrated coherence and complementarity across the portfolio. 4.3 Given the relatively limited direct support from the World Bank to central revenue agencies and the small size of its extractive sector portfolio, this subquestion will also assess the adequacy of the scope and scale of the World Bank’s engagement in these areas. This includes examining whether the limited involvement was a deliberate and appropriate strategic choice in light of political economy constraints or the division of labor among development partners, and whether the World Bank’s limited role effectively complemented broader reform efforts. To assess this, the evaluation will draw primarily on semistructured interviews with World Bank teams and development partners, as well as a review of strategic documents and donor activity in DRM and extractives. EQ 1.2: How Effectively Did the Bank Group Implement Its Support to Improve Public Financial Management for Service Delivery—Using the Education Sector as a Case Study? 4.4 The choice of this subquestion is justified by the central role that effective financial management plays in translating public resources into service delivery 28 outcomes. It will assess the effectiveness of the World Bank’s support aimed at improving the strategic allocation of resources, efficiency of spending, and financial oversight for public service delivery, using the education sector as a case study. The education sector is chosen because it accounts for the largest share of social spending14 and is expected to increase further under the government’s flagship free basic education policy. However, persistent inefficiencies in resource allocation, spending, and financial oversight continue to undermine service delivery outcomes. 4.5 Accordingly, the subquestion will assess how effectively World Bank interventions have contributed to improving budgeting, execution, monitoring, and accountability mechanisms in the education sector and central institutions that enable effective service delivery. The evaluation will include a comparative analysis of outcomes across regions with and without World Bank-supported PFM interventions. This sectoral lens will provide both depth and specificity, allowing us to trace the pathways through which PFM reforms lead to improved resource management for service delivery. It will also generate lessons that may be relevant for other social sectors facing similar PFM challenges. EQ 2: How Well Did the World Bank Group Design, Adapt, and Implement Its Support for Diversifying the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Economy to Enable Job Creation and Facilitate Economic Stability? 4.6 This evaluation question is divided into two subquestions regarding the relevance and effectiveness of Bank Group interventions. EQ 2.1 will assess the relevance and cohesiveness of a broad set of activities aimed at removing key constraints to economic diversification. EQ 2.2 will focus on the in-depth analysis of the effectiveness of selected Bank Group thematic programs that support economic diversification selected using two filters: (i) the fundamental importance of constraints to economic diversification; and (ii) a sufficient number of operations that are complete or in advanced stages of implementation to ensure evaluability of effectiveness. The selection further considered the existence of cross-cutting Bank Group engagement in selected sectors to assess internal coherence. EQ 2.1: How Well Did the World Bank Design and Adapt Its Support for Diversifying the Economy and Create the Conditions for Job Creation? 4.7 This subquestion will seek to answer to what extent the Bank Group’s support for diversifying the economy was relevant to creating the conditions for economic diversification and support for individual productive sectors. The evaluation will review the relevance of Bank Group support for creating enabling conditions, including reforms 29 and improvements to business regulation,15 for infrastructure sectors such as transport, energy, and information and communication technology, as well as for entrepreneurship and financial services to firms. The evaluation will further examine the relevance of support for productive sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, and services. The analysis will consider the internal coherence of the Bank Group program as well as the coherence with other development partner activity. It will also examine how the Bank Group’s approach and support adapted to changes in the political environment and how risks were managed and mitigated throughout the process. 4.8 To answer this question, the evaluation will reconstruct a high-level theory of change of how the country strategy intended to contribute to the main obstacles to economic diversification as a basis for assessing the alignment of the program with the main development and country priorities. The theory will be based on a review of diagnostics by the Bank Group and other partners. The evaluation will analyze the content of relevant documents and the Bank Group portfolio, focusing on interventions aimed at creating the conditions for economic development and supporting productive sectors. It will further review how this theory evolved in response shocks and new analytical information, using geospatial information where available. EQ 2.2: How Effective was the Bank Group’s Support for Access to Electricity and Financial Services in Creating Conditions for the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Economy to Diversify and Create Jobs? 4.9 This subquestion will assess the effectiveness of the Bank Group’s engagement in access to electricity and financial services. IEG will reconstruct theories of change for both sectors to document how the Bank Group aimed to address the main constraints to improved services.16 The evaluation will then assess the plausible contribution of Bank Group interventions to outcomes based on progress of implementation, (validated) delivery of project results, and changes in higher-level indicators, such as access levels and quality of services, as well as evidence from impact evaluations and other analytical products. For the effectiveness assessment of access to energy, the evaluation will explore the use of nighttime luminosity in areas benefiting from Bank Group support. Given the complex constraints to achieving progress in economic diversification and the low baseline of energy and financial access, this question will focus on the effectiveness of ameliorating identified constraints with reduced emphasis on observed diversification outcomes. 30 EQ 3. To What Extent has the Bank Group Adapted Its Programming and Projects to Institutional Fragility, Conflict, and Violence? EQ 3.1: To What Extent has the Bank Group Relevantly Adapted Its Programming and Projects to Persistent Fragility, Conflict, and Violence? 4.10 This subquestion will assess how relevantly the Bank Group adapted its portfolio and interventions to (i) achieve development outcomes in contexts characterized by conflict and violence and (ii) reduce the drivers of conflict and violence, following the recommendations of the RRA and the provisions of the IDA PRA. In doing so, it will examine issues such as the sectoral and spatial distribution of the portfolio, project-level adaptations, inclusion, security, partnerships, office decentralization, gender-based violence mitigation, third-party implementation, and remote monitoring. 4.11 To answer this question, the evaluation will identify all recommendations from the RRA pertaining to lending, nonlending, policy dialogue, and engagement with partners. It will first examine the coherence of RRA recommendations, Bank Group strategies, PRA, and Window for Host Communities and Refugees allocations. It will then examine whether RRA recommendations and CPF goals have been carried out, and if and how they impacted the portfolio’s effectiveness. The evaluation will also assess the depth of the portfolio recalibration under the PRA and its impact, as well as any changes to the general conflict sensitivity of the portfolio. Finally, it will leverage analysis conducted by the thematic evaluation of the FCV Strategy. EQ 3.2: How Effective was the Engagement in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo? 4.12 Different regions of the DRC face different conflict dynamics with differing levels of conflict intensity, all of which limit the country’s development potential. This evaluation chooses the eastern DRC for a more in-depth study of the Bank Group’s effectiveness in addressing FCV challenges because FCV engagement there has been most significant, in project number and commitment terms, and most long-standing, which should yield the most significant depth of evidence. 4.13 This subquestion will assess the effectiveness of the adaptations to the Bank Group’s project portfolio and individual interventions in ensuring the achievement of stated development goals at the project and program level. It will also assess the impact of the Bank Group’s interventions on the drivers of conflict and the World Bank’s contribution to major FCV-related outcomes. It will not aim to assess the Bank Group’s overall effectiveness in reducing conflict and violence as the complexity of cause and effect will not allow robust attribution of changes in overall conflict and violence to Bank Group interventions. 31 4.14 To answer this the evaluation will reconstruct the Bank Group’s theory of change in the eastern DRC and how it changed across the evaluation period. It will then collate evidence on outputs and outcomes across this theory of change at the project and country level from World Bank documents, as well as other sources including existing analytics and evaluations,17 geospatial data, and data from partners, especially the United Nations and MONUSCO. It will also assess the achievements and additionality of the PRA milestones. Exclusion 4.15 The evaluation will focus on the Bank Group support to improving governance, diversifying the economy, and addressing fragility. Given this scope, it will not directly assess Bank Group support to service delivery sectors such as health and social protection. However, it will assess the effectiveness of governance support through the lens of PFM reforms to improve basic service delivery, using the education sector as a case study. Similarly, the evaluation will not assess the relevance or effectiveness of Bank Group engagement in the water and sanitation sector and climate change. The exclusion is justified by the need for selectivity and a focus on assessing Bank Group support for addressing key drivers of fragility, particularly by enabling economic diversification to improve economic opportunities and strengthening governance. Further, the analysis regarding the support for economic diversification will review conditions for job creation, but in the absence of granular employment data, especially in the informal and rural economy, the evaluation will not aim to trace the impacts of Bank Group interventions to aggregate employment creation. 5. Evaluation Design 5.1 The evaluation will assess the Bank Group’s country program through three criteria: • Relevance: The evaluation will assess whether the Bank Group strategy pertaining to each evaluation question was informed by rigorous analytics and focused on areas of comparative advantage to address the main development challenges. The evaluation will then assess whether the program of World Bank lending and nonlending products, IFC investment and advisory activity, and MIGA guarantees, including project design, was responsive to the strategy and development challenges. The evaluation will further assess whether strategy and operations adapted to local realities, changing conditions, and emerging knowledge of best practices. Where appropriate, the evaluation will apply an FCV-sensitive approach to assess the relevance of interventions. 32 • Coherence: The CPE will evaluate whether Bank Group interventions were structured in a way that was mutually reinforcing to achieve results beyond the sum of individual projects (internal coherence). It will further evaluate the role of the Bank Group program in the context of the broader engagement of development partners with the authorities to assess the degree to which the Bank Group program was complementary and based on the Bank Group’s comparative advantage as well as potential convening role (external coherence). • Effectiveness: The evaluation will trace whether Bank Group projects were implemented as designed,18 whether they delivered their intended outputs and outcomes, and whether these can be plausibly linked to country outcomes over the evaluation period. This includes an assessment of whether synergies across the Bank Group portfolio and broader development partner engagement materialized. In cases where the implementation of programmatic approaches or delivery of higher-level outcomes would take longer than the evaluation period to observe, the evaluation will assess the delivery of operational outputs and more immediate outcomes. Methodology 5.2 The CPE will adopt a mixed methods approach to answer the evaluation questions. Analysis of the development context in the DRC, including relevant indicators, will provide a background in which the Bank Group program took place. An extensive portfolio review and analysis will inform the major developments (within each development theme) and the areas the Bank Group sought to influence. A theory-based approach will be used to trace the role of analytics and strategy in identifying areas of work and projects to ensure relevance and coherence. Specifically, contribution analysis will be used to explore the degree to which the Bank Group’s work helped shape policy dialogue and deliver its program. The evaluation design matrix in appendix A provides further information. 5.3 The evaluation will follow a series of analytical steps to apply the evaluation criteria to the evaluation questions. To assess relevance and coherence, the team will review and synthesize key diagnostics to establish the main pathways to country outcomes responsive to the main identified constraints. The team will then map Bank Group interventions to these pathways, identifying complementarities and logical sequencing along the portfolio as well as synergies with other development partners when relevant. To answer the question of effectiveness, the team will then assess the operational effectiveness of operations in delivering results along the identified logical pathways. In a final step, the team will explore plausible causal links to country-level outcomes based on the relative magnitude of Bank Group interventions, the strength of 33 the theory of constraint addressed, and potential alternative explanations for observed changes in country-level outcomes. 5.4 The main documentation sources that will be drawn on are as follows: (i) World Bank portfolio documentation during the period, including outputs of ASA, Project Appraisal Documents, Implementation Completion and Results Reports, Implementation Completion and Results Report Reviews, Implementation Status and Results Reports, restructuring documents, aide-mémoire, decision meeting minutes, project-related communication, and relevant Board of Directors’ meeting minutes; (ii) IFC portfolio documentation, including Board of Directors approval documents, supervision reports, Expanded Project Supervision Report Evaluative Notes, and Evaluative Notes of IFC advisory services (project completion reviews); (iii) MIGA portfolio documentation, including President’s Reports and Project Evaluation Reports; and (iv) formal Bank Group strategies and diagnostics. IEG staff will supplement these sources with academic and gray literature, and information from interviews with Bank Group staff and stakeholders associated with the DRC country program (including government, development partners, and IFC clients). The evaluation design matrix in appendix A provides further information on the main data sources and how they pertain to each evaluation question. 5.5 To achieve its objective and answer the three evaluation questions, the evaluation will use the following methods (please see the evaluation design matrix in appendix A, which contains information on how these methods are triangulated under each evaluation question): • Literature review of academic and gray literature. The team will conduct a targeted review of academic and gray literature to provide context, frame the evaluative analysis, and validate findings. This review will help identify key development challenges and best practices in fragile and conflict-affected settings, and will inform the construction of theories of change. It will also support the identification of evidence gaps and complement other sources of data and analysis used in the evaluation. • Content analysis of Bank Group documents. The evaluation will analyze key strategic, diagnostic, and evaluative documents—including country strategies (CAS, CPF), core analytical work (for example, Systematic Country Diagnostic, RRA, ASA), project-level documentation, and relevant IEG evaluations—to understand how the Bank Group identified and framed development challenges in the DRC. This analysis will help assess the internal coherence of strategies, the logic linking diagnostics to operations, and the evolution of the Bank Group’s approach over time. It will also provide insight into how the Bank Group positioned itself in relation to its comparative advantage and role alongside other development partners. 34 • Portfolio review of lending and nonlending operations. The evaluation team will conduct a structured review of the Bank Group’s lending and nonlending portfolio—including World Bank, IFC, and MIGA operations—to map activities to the three priority areas and assess their relevance, coherence, and effectiveness. This includes coding projects and ASA products to identify patterns in strategic focus, alignment with diagnostics and government priorities, and adaptation to evolving fragility, governance, and private sector challenges. The analysis will also examine portfolio performance, regional distribution, and shifts in design and implementation in response to conflict dynamics and other contextual factors. • Analysis of secondary data. The evaluation will use available macroeconomic, sectoral, and administrative data from national and international sources (for example, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, World Development Indicators, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), supplemented with provincial-level data where relevant (for example, PFM indicators, education outcomes, energy access metrics), to analyze trends in country and sectoral outcomes that the Bank Group has aimed to influence. • Geospatial analysis. Geospatial analysis will be used for EQs 2 and 3, including to compare historical nighttime light evolution and infrastructure development in communities that benefited from Bank Group energy access interventions versus those that did not (EQ 2) and assess whether the locations of Bank Group interventions were aligned with the spatial focus of its strategy (as described in paragraph 2.8). • Analysis of stakeholder interviews. The evaluation team will conduct semistructured interviews with Bank Group staff (current and former Country Management Unit, regional management, and task team leaders), development partners (including other multilaterals operating in the DRC), and clients (government officials and private sector clients). Stakeholder interview data will be used to validate and triangulate findings, especially where documentary or quantitative evidence is limited, and on areas not presented in documentary evidence (for example, client perception). • Contribution analysis. The evaluation will use contribution analysis and process tracing to explore plausible links between Bank Group interventions and observed outcomes—particularly for PFM and education outcomes (EQ 1), electricity and financial access outcomes (EQ 2), and addressing drivers of FCV (EQ 3). This will include reconstructing theories of change, identifying critical assumptions, and using multiple data sources to test contribution claims. 35 6. Limitations 6.1 The evaluation faces limitations regarding data availability. General statistical and economic data have gaps and are not reported consistently. Project documentation and evaluation reports may not collect and report relevant data to assess program effectiveness or may not be available at a level of disaggregation necessary. This is particularly the case for geospatial data of project locations, where information may not be available at sufficient granularity. Sensitive information may be omitted from relevant documents, especially versions intended for publication. The team will seek to mitigate data gaps by identifying alternative data sources and by triangulating findings with key informant interviews. 6.2 Reconstructing the theories of change of Bank Group support over time can be subject to bias. The main issues include potential recency bias due to the better availability and recollection of staff who have worked on recent analytical documents and strategies. In addition, interviews may be affected by survivorship bias, with interlocutors focusing on areas of strategy that were successful while not recalling areas that were discontinued because of lack of success. The team will aim to counter this by focusing on documentary evidence from strategies and analytical work. 6.3 Lack of access to stakeholders, especially those involved in earlier parts of the evaluation period. The team will work with the Bank Group country offices to identify stakeholders involved in the earlier part of the evaluation period. The team will further consider working with local consultants. 6.4 Difficulty linking interventions to higher-level outcomes. There are various reasons why linking interventions to higher-level outcomes may be difficult. Some outcomes are not expected to materialize within the evaluation period, especially for more recent projects. There may be confounding factors that make a direct link difficult, for example the presence of other interventions aiming to effect the same outcome or the absence of complementary projects. Some outcomes, such as Bank Group influence, are less tangible and difficult to observe. The team will aim to address this with a combination of measures. Coherence analysis will assess the role and complementarity of other development partners in pursuing sector-level outcomes. Tracing of delivery of operational results and intermediate outcomes of interventions (or lack thereof) will provide context as to the plausible contribution to observed changes in higher-level indicators. In the absence of the ability to build a rigorous counterfactual, the team will aim to identify potential alternative explanations for observed changes. 36 7. Quality Assurance Process 7.1 Quality assurance will take place through peer review arrangements, close collaboration with IEG management, and triangulation of evidence. Peer reviewers are Christoph Vogel (senior researcher and adviser), Isabelle Lessedjina (managing director, ANIZ), and Tom de Herdt (professor, University of Antwerp). 8. Expected Outputs, Outreach, and Tracking 8.1 The main output of this evaluation will be a report that presents relevant findings and lessons that can inform the next CPF for the DRC, currently planned for no earlier than the fourth quarter of FY26. 9. Resources 9.1 The team will be led by Lars Johannes (senior economist) and Kandi Magendo (public sector specialist). Team members are Mees van der Werf (economist), Diana Stanescu (Data Scientist), Naoko Kojo (senior economist), Corky de Asis (evaluation assistant), and Gabriela Chamartin (consultant). Thomas Kenyon (senior economist) served as a team leader and Marwane Zouaidi (consultant) provided portfolio analysis during the preparation of the Approach Paper. The estimated budget for the evaluation is US$750,000. 1The Worldwide Governance Indicators are based on perceptions from surveys and expert assessments, making them inherently subjective. They are designed for cross-country comparisons and research purposes, rather than being definitive measures of governance performance. 2Gécamines, the state-owned mining company, continues to operate with limited public disclosure of contracts or financial flows, constraining effective oversight and enabling the persistence of rent capture (Global Witness 2021). 3In the public sector, this allows officials to interpret laws selectively, extract illicit payments, and allocate contracts or licenses based on political loyalty or personal gain. In the private sector, it allows politically connected actors to secure preferential treatment outside formal processes (Staines and Villafuerte 2021). 4Six of the seven major SOEs provide public services, such as water, transportation infrastructure, or electricity, while one (Gécamines) is active in mining and commodity trading. 37 In addition, the state controls 14 companies, primarily mining and infrastructure services, and holds shares in 40 companies, primarily in the mining, manufacturing, and services sectors. 5 In 2023 the DRC had a total population of 105.8 million (World Bank 2025b). 6“The FY13–FY17 CAS expired without a new World Bank Group strategy in place and with no decision taken to extend either the strategy or the results framework, creating an extended period of time with no clear framework for accountability” (World Bank 2022a). 7The China, which does not report contributions to the OECD Development Assistance Committee, was estimated to have committed approximately 16 percent more than IDA between 2013 and 2021. Funding highly concentrated in 2016 and 17 investments in the Tenke Fungurume Mine account for 41 percent of these commitments (William and Mary n.d.). 8The Enhancing Governance Capacity Project (P104041, US$117 million, FY08–16), Capacity for Core Public Management Project (P117382, US$30 million, FY11–17), Public Financial Management and Accountability Project (P145747, US$55 million, FY14–21), and Public Service Reform and Rejuvenation Project (P122229, US$120 million, FY14–21), and the PROMINES Project (P106982, US$50 million, FY11–19) in the extractive sector. 9 DRC Enhancing Collection of Revenue and Expenditure Management Project (P171762). 10Support to the DRC’s revenue agencies is being provided by other development partners. The French Development Agency’s C2D project (€12 million) is supporting the digitalization of the three revenue agencies, with additional funding expected from the European Union (estimated at €17 million). China’s Eximbank is financing the development of a nationwide IT network for tax administration, while the African Development Bank is providing technical assistance to strengthen its institutional capacity (World Bank 2021a). 11Stabilization: DRC Eastern Recovery Project—US$79 million investment project financing (IPF; P145196) and DRC Reinsertion and Reintegration Project (P152903) —US$21.5 million IPF. Regional projects: AFR RI—Great Lakes Trade Facilitation—US$34 million Regional IPF (P151083) and AFR RI—Regional Great Lakes Integrated Agriculture Development Project (P143307) US$152 million. Regional IPF DRC—Gender Based Violence Prevention and Response Project—US$100 million IPF (P166763). 12 The Completion and Learning Review Validation (CLRV) was called the Completion and Learning Review Review (CLRR) before May 1, 2023. 13IFC and MIGA did not directly contribute to governance reforms related to DRM, PFM, SOE governance, or transparency and accountability. The IFC advisory activity Improving DRC's Investment Climate at National and Provincial Levels (Project ID 600085) focused on investment climate reform, specifically business registration, construction permits, and contract enforcement. This advisory activity only indirectly contributed to the targeted governance reforms. 38 14In 2022, 29.5 percent of the total approved budget was allocated to social sectors, with education receiving the largest share at 16.7 percent, followed by health at 10.3 percent and social protection at 2.7 percent. Spending in education has increased significantly over the past decade, reaching 3.1 percent of GDP in 2022 (up from 1.8 percent in 2013), largely due to the implementation of the free primary education policy introduced in September 2019. 15 Including issues such as reforms of SOEs and taxation. 16Access to electricity for the context of this evaluation includes connectivity as well as quality and financial sustainability of service delivery. 17Existing evaluations include a) UN and World Bank Group 2019, Evaluation report of Disarmament Demobilization and Reintegration and Community Violence Reduction programs, b) World Bank 2022, An analysis of the Ebola Crisis Response Program in DRC, c) World Bank, Portfolio Review & Stock-take of Citizen Engagement Mechanisms, d) 2021, RCT of the Community-Driven Development Program with a Conflict Resolution Dimension STEP (DRC Eastern Recovery Project). 18In addition to commitment figures discussed in this Approach Paper, the report will review success in disbursing funds as well as patterns of undisbursed balance to assess project readiness and adaptive implementation. 39 Bibliography Bertelsmann Stiftung. 2024. “BTI 2024 Country Report—Congo, DR.” Bertelsmann Stiftung. 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EQ 1.1: How well did Relevance: Literature review of academic and Systematic literature review to reconstruct Data availability: the World Bank Evidence that interventions and gray literature to (i) establish a basis the overall concept framework of how Limited availability of design and adapt its sequences of operations are meant for framing how governance initiatives governance-related interventions are meant contemporary analysis support to improve to address key developmental can contribute to improved public to come together to improve public resource of the DRC’s governance of public challenges, as identified in the resource management in fragile management in fragile settings (areas: DRM; governance challenges resources? Conceptual Framework. settings; (ii) establish a basis for PFM; SOE governance; transparency; by DRC-based framing how PFM reforms contribute accountability). researchers. Partially to improved education outcomes; and mitigated with data Evidence of strategic and portfolio (iii) gather best practices for designing Content analysis of strategy documents: from local stakeholder level alignment of the World Bank’s and sequencing PFM reforms in fragile Identify how the World Bank strategy aimed interviews. governance-related support with settings. to address binding constraints; its coherence EQ 1.2: How the DRC’s strategic priorities and sectoral challenges, as reflected in with the literature and ASA; and how strategy Granularity of available effectively did the key diagnostics and government Desk review of the DRC’s governance evolved in response to lessons learned from PFM and education World Bank priorities. diagnostics and strategy documents program implementation. service delivery data implement its (World Bank, development partners, across provinces. support to improve and government) to (i) identify key Lending and nonlending alignment: Partially mitigated with PFM for service Evidence of timely adaptation to bottlenecks to effective public Analysis of World Bank governance ASA and field-based data delivery—using the changing circumstances (for resource management and service portfolio to determine the degree to which collection and education sector as a example, conflict, political delivery in the education sector; (ii) lessons and recommendations from ASA are qualitative interviews in case study? instability) and lessons from identify strategies developed by reflected in the design of the lending selected provinces. experience. stakeholders to address these activities (policy and investment). bottlenecks and the outcomes they Stakeholder access: Coherence with external partners: aimed to achieve; and (iii) establish Portfolio review analysis to assess how the Challenges in Evidence that the World Bank’s division of labor in DRM and the contacting former interventions to improve DRM and extractive sector if applicable. governance portfolio aligns with relevant strategies (World Bank and government), its officials (World Bank strengthen governance in the and external) as well as extractive sector were evolution over time, and its adaptation to Portfolio review of the World Bank lessons from implementation (ICRs, PLRs), other stakeholders. complementary with other donor lending and nonlending governance Partially mitigated with programs targeting the same changes in the political environment and portfolio to identify specific activities emerging risks, and complementarity across secondary data. outcomes. supported by the World Bank that aim 43 Evaluation Judgment Criteria or Evidence Information Sources and Data Questions Threshold Collection Methods Data Analysis Methods Risks and Mitigations to improve public resource World Bank governance activities in key Outcome attribution: Effectiveness: management and address PFM sectors. Challenges in isolating Evolution of key country and sector bottlenecks for service delivery in the Contribution analysis will include (i) defining the Bank Group’s outcomes that the Bank Group had education sector, the targeted the expected causal chain from the contribution. Partially sought to influence. outcomes, and reported results. implemented PFM reforms to the targeted mitigated with education outcomes; (ii) comparing contribution analysis. Interviews with key World Bank outcomes between provinces with and Bank Group portfolio performance stakeholders, development partners, without World Bank–funded PFM Limited data from of operations targeting PFM for and government officials, to gather interventions to identify differences in regions not targeted service delivery in the education information on perceptions around outcomes; and (iii) establishing links between by World Bank sector. Outcome data from projects relevance and effectiveness. World Bank PFM interventions and outcomes operations. Mitigated and sector diagnostics as well as (ToC, interviews, ruling out alternative by triangulating lessons learned from explanations). available quantitative implementation. Secondary and administrative data on relevant governance indicators. data with qualitative Partnership analysis to (i) map activities of data. key development partners in DRM and the Field-based data collection of extractive sector and (ii) assess the extent to Access to external relevant result indicators from which the Bank Group collaborated and stakeholders if the provincial governments in regions coordinated with partners to achieve division mission is remote or targeted by World Bank PFM in of labor, if application, and contribute restricted to the education operations and those with to/share knowledge. capital. Mitigated no interventions. through remote Analysis of semistructured interviews to interviews, use of synthesize qualitative data from stakeholders secondary data, and to provide context and triangulate findings hiring local expertise to from other sources. administer questionnaires if necessary. EQ 2: How well did the World Bank Group design, adapt, and implement its support for diversifying the DRC’s economy EQ 2.1: How well did To what extent did the Bank Group Desk review of strategy documents Trends and explanatory factors around Data scarcity: Limited the World Bank program identify and address the (CAS, CPF, IFC strategy, sector main development challenges: availability of design and adapt its DRC’s main challenges to strategies), analytical reports (SCD, Content analysis of analytical documents and contemporary analysis support for diversifying the economy and CPSD, RRA, outputs of analytical ASA analysis of sector-level secondary data to of economic at sector or thematic level), strategies, diversification issues 44 Evaluation Judgment Criteria or Evidence Information Sources and Data Questions Threshold Collection Methods Data Analysis Methods Risks and Mitigations diversifying the create the conditions for job project documents, and Bank Group assess main constraints to private sector specific to the economy? creation? self-evaluation documents (including development. conditions of the DRC. Evidence of adaptive alignment of IEG validations where available), IEG Granularity of available EQ 2.2: How effective strategy and operations with private evaluations, and case studies. Content analysis of strategy documents: data of indicators was the Bank Group’s sector development challenges Portfolio review of operational Identify how Bank Group strategy aimed to measuring support for energy identified in analytical work and the documents (PDOs, description of address binding constraints and how strategy diversification and and the financial Bank Group’s comparative components, indicator frameworks, evolved in response to changing contributing factors. sector in creating advantage, including FCV risks. implementation reports, aide- circumstances established in the needs-gap Information on conditions for the How well did interventions fit within mémoire), Bank Group portfolio analysis as well as lessons learned from activities of DRC’s economy to a cohesive sector program, reports, and portfolio reports of other program implementation. nontraditional diversify? considering interventions by other development partners (OECD development partners. partners and government strategy? Development Assistance Committee Partnership analysis: Review of key Mitigation: Evidence that the Bank Group development partner database, triangulation and development partners’ strategy in the DRC’s coordinates the roles of IDA, IFC, AidData). interviews with energy and financial sectors, assessing and MIGA based on their Geospatial analysis of Bank Group stakeholders involved. complementarity with Bank strategy. Review comparative advantage to address and other development partners’ delivery of key projects complementary to specific private sector challenges, projects and georeferenced indicators Bank Group support toward achieving sector- Stakeholder access: considering conditions in the DRC. of effectiveness (for example, level outcomes. Challenges in Evidence that the Bank Group nightlight data, subnational contacting former engages in dialogue with main development indicators). officials (World Bank Portfolio review and analysis: development partners in private Key informant interviews with Bank and external) as well as Group stakeholders, development Relevance: Review of project documents other stakeholders. sector development, seeking partners, and government officials. (PDOs, design of components, indicators) Mitigation: complementary roles in addressing compared with priorities identified in strategy Triangulation with main challenges, and implementing Sector-level data (for example, and analytics. documents and data. complementary programs, ideally in electrification rates, energy access a sequenced manner. indexes, information of coverage, and Internal coherence: Review the Bank Group depth of financial access). program (including advisory activities, To what extent did projects Data gaps: Limited support for reforms, and investment contribute to improvements in sector-level financing) in the private sector in the DRC in energy infrastructure and evaluations for response to gap analysis and strategy. availability of financial services? financial sector and External coherence: Review overall energy. Incomplete Bank Group portfolio performance development partner program and role of georeferencing or Bank of operations targeting the energy Bank Group therein. Group projects. and financial sector (that is, did projects deliver intended outputs 45 Evaluation Judgment Criteria or Evidence Information Sources and Data Questions Threshold Collection Methods Data Analysis Methods Risks and Mitigations and outcomes such as installation Effectiveness: Review operational Attribution of of infrastructure, expansion of implementation of program, potential outcomes and financial services, and so on, adjustments to changing circumstances, and impacts: Challenges in considering any additional operational effectiveness in delivering isolating the Bank evaluative and diagnostic work outputs and outcomes to establish link Group’s contribution to performed? What are the lessons between operations. improvements to learned from implementation?) energy access and To what extent can projects be Content analysis of evaluation documents: access to financial linked to improved use of electricity Review evidence from IEG evaluations as well services. Difficulty and financial services? as evaluations conducted by project teams identifying intervening Evidence of the evolution of key and third parties to establish link from project external factors that energy and financial sector implementation to higher-level outcomes. constrain outcomes that the Bank Group had development. Partially sought to influence. mitigated with Contribution analysis of results to higher- contribution analysis. Energy: level indicators: Trace plausible contribution Did financial and operational of Bank Group project results to changes in performance of the Société higher-level outcomes, considering whether Nationale d'Électricité improve? such interventions present necessary Did electrification rates, generation conditions (for example, reforms introducing capacity, and grid coverage new financial product leading to use of such improve? a product) or changes in degree (for example, Did the use of minigrids and off- expansion of power grid), exploring potential grid solutions expand? alternative causes. Is there evidence for differential use of energy usage in project and Geospatial analysis: The analysis will nonproject areas based on compare the historical nighttime light nightlight data? evolution in communities that benefited from Financial services: Bank Group interventions, and (ii) will trace the communities that benefited from Bank Did projects extend access to Group electrification interventions and finance to new customers? compare them with the plans set in the Did country coverage of financial National Energy Plan. services increase (for example, number of loans/deposit accounts, 46 Evaluation Judgment Criteria or Evidence Information Sources and Data Questions Threshold Collection Methods Data Analysis Methods Risks and Mitigations number of financial transactions, Content analysis of semistructured credit/GDP?). interviews: Validate preliminary findings of Are services sustainable (that is, did all previous steps of analysis and fill in nonperforming loans increase, and information gaps where documented are services profitable)? evidence is insufficient. Private sector solutions: Was the role of the Bank Group additional? Did projects demonstrate the viability of the business model? Are there indications of replication effects? EQ 3: To what extent has the Bank Group appropriately and relevantly adapted its engagement in the DRC to the challenges of fragility and conflict? EQ 3.1: To what FCV sensitivity (adaptation): The Literature review: Review Literature review: Synthesize existing Data scarcity: Limited extent has the Bank CPF strategy is better adapted to contemporaneous literature, research and evaluations to contextualize availability of Group relevantly the DRC’s FCV challenges and diagnostic, and strategy documents findings, validate data, and identify gaps, contemporary analysis adapted its aligned with RRA’s (both World Bank and external) to informing strategic insights. of the DRC by DRC- programming and recommendations and drivers of identify drivers of conflict, sources of based researchers. projects to persistentconflict and other analytical work resilience, and appropriate FCV Strategy analysis: coherence analysis of Granularity of available than the CAS in areas such as fragility, conflict, and sensitivity measures. Bank Group strategies, PRA, and WHR data. Limited data and violence? prioritization, nature of allocations in relation to each other and RRA documentation in Bank interventions, selectivity of World Document review: analysis of recommendations. Group intranet. EQ 3.2: How effective Bank support, government strategy, FCV allocation, lending, and was the engagement dialogue, and engagement without nonlending documents to identify Stakeholder access: Lending and nonlending coherence: in the eastern DRC? written strategy. World Bank measures taken to address drivers of Challenges in projects are better adapted to local Analysis of World Bank ASA to determine conflict, strengthen sources of coherence with diagnostic work and the contacting former FCV conditions and changing resilience and FCV sensitivity, and officials (World Bank conflict dynamics. degree to which they informed or influenced reconstruct a ToC for interventions in and were coherent with subsequent World and external) as well as the eastern DRC. Bank support (advice, policy, dialogue, other stakeholders. Strategic alignment (coherence): lending), and whether that World Bank Potential inability to CPF goals, PRA goals and funding, Consultations: Interviews with World support was coherent with Bank Group travel beyond Kinshasa the WHR allocation, and Bank Bank staff (current and former Country strategies and PRA goals, by mapping direct because of insecurity. Group projects and client Management Unit, regional influence pathways. This could be 47 Evaluation Judgment Criteria or Evidence Information Sources and Data Questions Threshold Collection Methods Data Analysis Methods Risks and Mitigations engagement are well aligned and management, TTLs), development mitigated by working support each other. partners, government officials, and Portfolio review and analysis to (i) assess with local consultants. other stakeholders to gather adaptations in all lending projects to local Effectiveness: Interventions in the qualitative data on FCV sensitivity, FCV conditions, (ii) assess alignment of Limited evaluative eastern DRC achieved project goals coherence, and effectiveness. Field project program with RRA recommendations evidence of eastern and at the aggregate level reduced visit if possible. and CPF goals, and (iii) assess outcomes and DRC interventions. the drivers of conflict and effectiveness of eastern DRC lending strengthened sources of resilience. Bank Group portfolio analysis: operations. Analysis of trends in goals, performance mitigation measures, Review of the contribution of the World GBV mitigation, and other project Bank to conflict outcomes in the eastern DRC, data. including an assessment of the causal chain from project intervention to achieved conflict Geospatial data: Analysis of project outcomes, reviewing evidence of the intervention locations in relation to contribution of the World Bank. conflict events and other socioeconomic indicators. Geospatial analysis to assess the proximity of World Bank intervention locations to FCV Strategy evaluation will provide conflict events, and the overlap between analysis of (i) projects through a pre- intervention locations and other and postcomparison of the utilization socioeconomic indicators. of operational flexibilities and their impact on project development Analysis of FCV data to assess potential effectiveness, (ii) project budget data, impact on drivers of conflict, sources of (iii) human resources, training, and resilience, and other relevant factors. staffing data, and (iv) project-level partnerships, including third-party Analysis of semistructured interviews to implementation, to be used as a triangulate findings from other sources. secondary source of evidence. Analyses of data collected in the field on Databases: Existing socioeconomic, the effectiveness of eastern DRC projects in fragility, and development data from addressing FCV. internal and external sources (WDI, ACLED), perception surveys. 48 Evaluation Judgment Criteria or Evidence Information Sources and Data Questions Threshold Collection Methods Data Analysis Methods Risks and Mitigations Existing evaluative evidence of interventions in the eastern DRC: Including ICR(R)s, impact evaluations, and other analysis. Source: Independent Evaluation Group. Note: a. In collaboration with energy access evaluation. ACLED = Armed Conflict Location and Event Data; ASA = advisory services and analytics; CAS = Country Assistance Strategy; CPF = Country Partnership Framework; CPSD = Country Private Sector Diagnostic; DRM = domestic revenue mobilization; FCV = fragility, conflict, and violence; GBV = gender-based violence; ICR = Implementation Completion and Results Report; ICRR = Implementation Completion and Results Report Review; IDA = International Development Association; IEG = Independent Evaluation Group; IFC = International Finance Corporation; MIGA = Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency; OECD = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; PDO = project development objective; PFM = public financial management; PLR = Performance and Learning Review; PRA = Prevention and Resilience Allocation; RRA = Risk and Resilience Allocation; SCD = Systematic Country Diagnostic; ; ToC = theory of change; TTL = task team leader; WDI = World Development Indicators; WHR = Window for Host Communities and Refugees. 49 50