Mobility and Transport Connectivity Series Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics JapanGov The Government of Japan  ii Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Internet: https://www.worldbank.org/transport Standard Disclaimer This work is a product of the staff of The International Bank of Reconstruction and Development/ World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.  iii Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Table of Contents List of Figures���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������v List of Maps������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������vi List of Tables���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������vi Acknowledgments������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������vii Foreword�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ix Abbreviations���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������x Executive summary����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������xi 1. Why transport connectivity and logistics are critical for South Sudan’s development���������������� 1 1.1 The current state of South Sudan�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 2 1.2 The need for transport connectivity and logistics to boost development in South Sudan����� 3 1.3 A call to invest in South Sudan’s transport sector��������������������������������������������������������������������������� 5 1.4 Improving stability and emergency access���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 5 1.5 Building resilient transportation networks���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 6 1.6 Driving meaningful economic growth�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 7 1.7 Stepping up for sustainable growth in South Sudan����������������������������������������������������������������������� 8 2. Overview of South Sudan’s transport and logistics challenges��������������������������������������������������������9 2.1 Understanding the scale of South Sudan’s transport infrastructure issues���������������������������� 10 2.2 The challenges and potential of developing strong transport networks����������������������������������� 14 2.3 Efforts taken to revive the transport sector�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������17 3. Revisiting the ‘oil for roads model’ in South Sudan����������������������������������������������������������������������������21 3.1 Status of funding for road infrastructure����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������22 3.2 Using natural resources to finance infrastructure��������������������������������������������������������������������������23 3.3 Recommendations for the South Sudan resources for infrastructure model��������������������������25 4. Closing the gap: Critical domestic and regional corridors, institutions, and financing���������������27 4.1 Prioritizing connectivity for key value chains����������������������������������������������������������������������������������28 4.2 Crop value chains������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������32 4.3 Milk and meat value chains������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������35 4.4 Fish value chain���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������36 4.5 Identifying critical corridors for domestic connectivity�����������������������������������������������������������������37 4.6 Priority regional corridors���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������52 4.7 Impact of conflict and fragility on the prioritization of interventions����������������������������������������55  iv Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 4.8 Planning for unprecedented flooding and extreme heat in the face of climate change���������58 4.9 Closing the institutional gap����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������59 4.10 Funding and financing efforts to close the infrastructure gap����������������������������������������������������65 5. Connectivity for growth: The ingredients for an ambitious agenda����������������������������������������������� 71 5.1 Prioritizing domestic and regional connectivity to anchor key value chains���������������������������� 72 5.2 Important sector reforms���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������73 5.3 Improving the intersection between investments and institutions��������������������������������������������75 5.4 A plan to build supply chain capacity�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������76 5.5 Funding and aligning development financing�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������78 Appendix – Freight flow methodology�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 80 Overview�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 81 Supply and demand (freight generation)�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������82 Freight distribution�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������84 Results���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 86 References�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������91 Image credits������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 95  v Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics List of Figures Figure 1.1 An aid truck stuck in the mud during rainy season...................................................................... 4 Figure 1.2 A completely flooded and washed-out feeder road in northern Bahr el Ghazal state......... 7 Figure 2.1 Why should ministries that are not core to the transport sector (such as justice, trade and industry) be involved in building roads?...................................... 16 Figure 2.2 Section of the newly completed Juba-Bor highway................................................................... 17 Figure 2.3 Construction of the Torit-Magwi road in Eastern Equatoria with funding by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.............................................................................. 19 Figure 2.4 The Freedom Bridge over the Nile in Juba, Central Equatoria................................................. 19 Figure 4.1 Total freight of agriculture crop commodities........................................................................... 32 Figure 4.2 Bundles of dried, salted fish ready for export or domestic distribution near new Bor River Port Terminal. In February 2023, each bundle of fish cost around US$900..................................................................................................................................37 Figure 4.3 Freight volumes along key roads....................................................................................................42 Figure 4.4 Key interventions envisioned to improve inland waterway transport..................................47 Figure 4.5 Hinterland of key corridors damaged by flooding..................................................................... 58 Figure 4.6 Length of roads severely damaged by flooding.......................................................................... 59 Figure 4.7 Revenue and expenditure patterns............................................................................................... 66 Figure 4.8 Sector expenditure patterns............................................................................................................67 Figure 4.9 Spending on infrastructure as share of total government budget between 2006 and 2023.................................................................................................................................. 68 Figure A1. All data sources are disaggregated or aggregated to the same spatial aggregation........ 81 Figure A2. The flow of agricultural production information and disaggregation.................................. 83 Figure A3. Grain Sorghum yields per state based on the 2017 SSA MapSPAM dataset...................... 83 Figure A4. A Map of the transport network used for freight flow modelling in South Sudan............. 85 Figure A5. Grain sorghum flows under the increased yield scenario in South Sudan (left) with an overlaid road network indicating the conditions of the roads (right).................... 86 Figure A6. Regional (left) and domestic (right) roads identified during engagement with the MRB.......................................................................................................................................87 Figure A7. South Sudan freight flows with regional and domestic identified corridors in various colors.......................................................................................................................................87 Figure A8. Maximum freight flow modelled through a segment on regional and domestic corridors............................................................................................................................ 88 Figure A9. Tons traversing each section of the White Nile, given the route choice model assignment.......................................................................................................................................... 90  vi Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics List of Maps Map 2.1 National strategic roads ...................................................................................................................11 Map 2.2 Breakdown of the Eastern Africa regional transport, trade and development facilitation project.............................................................................................................................. 15 Map 2.3 The “Oil for Roads” program: planned and actual progress..................................................... 18 Map 4.1 Total agricultural supply by county.............................................................................................. 30 Map 4.2 Supply of agricultural product types by county......................................................................... 31 Map 4.3 Flow of key crops............................................................................................................................... 34 Map 4.4 Potential value chain production of sorghum............................................................................. 35 Map 4.5 Proposed changes to road and inland water transport, informed by agricultural freight flows........................................................................................................................................ 39 Map 4.6 Critical domestic corridors identified for intervention.............................................................. 41 Map 4.7 Potential interventions in roads and inland water transport..................................................44 Map 4.8 Required road connectivity............................................................................................................. 54 Map 4.9 Map of South Sudan showing conflict hot spots, and proposed transport infrastructure network for intervention...................................................................................... 56 List of Tables Table 3.1 Road sector budgets and expenditures by fiscal year...............................................................22 Table 3.2 SWOT analysis of the RFI model....................................................................................................24 Table 3.3 Recommendations for the South Sudan resources for infrastructure model.................... 25 Table 4.1 Other Institutions with roles in the transport sector............................................................... 64 Table A1. Road segment impedance weights............................................................................................... 84 Table A2. Total tons by waterway facility on the Juba–Bor..................................................................... 89 Table A3. Total tons on each waterway section on the Juba–Bor........................................................... 89  vii Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Acknowledgments This report is an output of the Transport Global Practice of the World Bank Group. The report was prepared by a team led by Dr. Bernard Aritua, Lead Transport Specialist. The core team members were Mawa Benjamin Ezibon Banja, Transport Consultant; Jan Havenga, Professor of Logistics, Stellenbosch University; Zane Simpson, Freight and Data Modeler; Stefaan Swarts, Data Scientist; Juvenal Nzambimana, Senior Agriculture Specialist; Jaap van der Merwe, Railway & Logistics expert; Harrie de Leijer, Inland Waterways Transport; Richard van Liere, Inland Waterways Transportation expert; and Emmanuel Kweri Dijango, Transport Consultant, Stephen Muzira, Lead Transport Specialist, and Getachew Yilma Debele, Transport Specialist. The work was initiated by Ousmane Dione (Regional Vice President) and carried out under the overall supervision of Wendy Hughes (Regional Practice Director for Infrastructure Southern and Eastern Africa) and Maryam Salim (Division Director for Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan and Eritrea). The team received guidance from practice managers: Karla Gonzalez Carvajal (Transport Africa), Binyam Reja (Transport Global), Erik Magnus Fernstrom (Energy) and Holgar Kray (Agriculture & Food), and Charles Andrew Undeland and Firas Raad (Country Managers – South Sudan). The team is grateful to individuals who provided technical inputs at various stages: Paavo Eliste (Practice Manager), Muhammad Zulfiqar Ahmed (Senior Transport Engineer), Benqing Jennifer Gui (Senior Digital Development Specialist), Eric Nimungu (FCV and Geo-spatial expert), Tigran Parvanyan (Energy Specialist), Abalo Irene Jerry Fabiano (Energy Specialist), Deo-Marcel Niyungeko (Senior Water Supply and Sanitation Specialist), Droma Bank Dominic Kat (Urban Specialist). The report benefitted from valuable expert advice received from peer reviewers: Haileyesus Adamtei Mengesha (Senior Transport Specialist), Gregoire Francois Gauthier (Senior Transport Specialist), Muneeza Mehmood Alam (Senior Transport Economist), Zerihun Getachew Kelbore (Economist). The authors acknowledge the excellent discussions and feedback from members of the Transport Diagnostics of South Sudan working group and various officials from organizations in South Sudan. We are grateful to experts from the following Government of South Sudan ministries for sharing their experience and insights and providing data: Ministry of Transport (MoT), Ministry of Road and Bridges (MRB), South Sudan Road Authority, (SSRA), Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Petroleum & Mining, University of Juba (School of Engineering), National Bureau of Statistics, National Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture (SSNCCIA), and South Sudan Shippers Council. The team is grateful to the following development partners and organizations that have contributed to the report and shared valuable information: World Food Program (WFP), Food & Agriculture Organization (FAO), Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), EU delegation, Netherlands Embassy in South Sudan, Northern Corridor Transit and Transport Coordination Authority (NCTTCA), and African Development Bank (AfDB). The authors are grateful to these private sector enterprises for sharing views and validating the key messages in the report – B&S Group, Association of South Sudan Contractors, Ezra Group,  viii Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics AJK International, and Bollore Transport & Logistics South Sudan. The authors also wish to acknowledge various reports and policy documents that have been referred to in the study and referenced in this report. The team is grateful to Lomoro Abdalla John Sindani (Communications Associate) for his advice on the dissemination of the report. Florence Poni (Program Assistant) and Zewditu Banteyehun Haile (Senior Operations Officer) provided outstanding operational and administrative support to the entire diagnostics. Funding for this report was provided by the Quality Infrastructure Investment Trust Funds (QII). This trust fund is a collaborative effort between the World Bank and the Government of Japan to provide grant support to incorporate the QII Principles in World Bank infrastructure projects in developing countries and raise awareness of the quality dimensions of infrastructure. The authors would also like to thank Jonathan Davidar, Senior Knowledge and Learning Officer, for leading the creative direction and editing production, which was edited and designed by RRD GO Creative. The interpretations and conclusions in this report are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank Group, the governments they represent or any individuals and organizations that were consulted. Any factual errors are the responsibility of the team. All rights reserved Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law.  ix Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Foreword In March 2023, I traveled to the world’s youngest nation, South Sudan. On this first official visit as World Bank Vice President for Eastern & Southern Africa, I engaged with various stakeholders —the senior leadership of the country, key government counterparts, development partners, the private sector, civil society, researchers, and most importantly, the direct beneficiaries of development projects financed by the World Bank. The deep desire for a better country, coupled with the realities of a fragile nation, were evident in these conversations. To achieve the aspirations of this vibrant nation and its people, South Sudan needs to unlock new drivers of economic growth in the agriculture sector, and to some extent in mining. With an estimated 33 million acres of prime arable land and only 4 percent currently being cultivated, there is potential to increase food security and export agriculture products to regional and global markets. An enduring memory is from my visit to the largest open-air fish market in the city of Bor in the state of Jonglei. Fish from South Sudan has great demand both domestically and within the region – especially Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Salted fish makes it to global markets among the large diasporas. The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates that about 300,000-400,000 tons of fish is produced in South Sudan. About 15 percent of the population (roughly 1.9 million people) and more than 30 percent in states with the most productive fisheries (that is, Upper Nile, Jonglei and Unity) are engaged in the fisheries sector. This includes fishing, processing, marketing, and sale and construction of fishing gear and crafts. The question then is: why can’t fish from South Sudan contribute as much to the country’s GDP as it does in Canada and Norway? Our specialist teams from transport, agriculture and natural resources estimate that up to 70 percent of yield is lost after harvesting due to broken cold chain storage and processing, and poor logistics in getting products from source to user or market. In October 2022, an expert team from the agriculture global practice of the World Bank published a report on how to transform agriculture in South Sudan from Humanitarian Aid to a Development Oriented Growth Path. It argued that truly transforming agriculture in South Sudan requires a comprehensive approach, going beyond the narrow domain of agricultural productivity improvement and value chain development. This report captures the transport infrastructure and systems needed to unlock the potential of agriculture as a driver of growth. The World Bank’s involvement in South Sudan dates prior to its independence in 2011. After realizing its dream of self-determination, South Sudan joined the World Bank. Our relationship intensified with the establishment of a larger World Bank Country Office in the capital, Juba. After a slowdown in Bank-financed activities due to the 2013-2018 conflict, the World Bank currently engages as a development partner during this critical stage of South Sudan’s development as the country deals with the residual effects of violence and fragility, buffeted by climate-related shocks. South Sudan needs to turn the corner from short-term humanitarian emergencies to longer-term development. The key message of this report is selectivity and focus. Transport infrastructure and services are critical to transition to an economic growth-led developmental model. However, the focus has to be on improving critical transport corridors, institutional reforms and focused policy making to unlock the potential of the agriculture – and in the near-term, mining – as drivers of economic growth. Victoria Kwakwa Vice President - Eastern and Southern Africa World Bank Group  x Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Abbreviations CAA Civil Aviation Authority ECOSS Engineering Council of South Sudan EU European Union GDP Gross Domestic Product ha Hectare HoA Horn of Africa ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization IWT Inland Water Transport JIA Juba International Airport JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency km Kilometers LLDCs Landlocked Developing Countries m Meter MDTF-SS Multi-Donor Trust Fund South Sudan MoT Ministry of Transport MRB Ministry of Roads and Bridges PPP Public-Private Partnership SSCAA South Sudan Civil Aviation Authority SSRA South Sudan Roads Authority SSTSP South Sudan Transport Sector Policy UN United Nations USAID United States Agency for International Development US$ United States Dollar WFP World Food Program  xi Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Executive summary The current state of the transport sector in South Sudan is dire. For example, it takes between two to four days to travel from Juba to Wau in South Sudan, a distance of approximately 650 km. In the rainy season, this journey can take over a week, if at all. A trip from Budapest to Munich, which is the same distance, takes seven hours. This is just one instance that captures the current transport conditions in South Sudan. There is urgent need for a robust transport system, with requisite institutional governance, financing, due attention to maintenance and climate resilience to bring opportunity and hope back to the people of South Sudan. As a landlocked country in the center of Africa, South Sudan shares borders with six countries— Ethiopia, Sudan, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, and Kenya. Decades of civil war, recurrent and protracted internal conflicts following secession from Sudan, and economic mismanagement have placed it among the world’s lowest-performing nations in terms of economic and social outcomes. In these unfavorable conditions, it might not seem logical to focus on the transport sector. However, while transport by itself is not a sufficient reason for development, the presence of transport infrastructure and functioning services for the movement of people and goods is a prerequisite for meaningful economic development and social transformation in post conflict countries like South Sudan. For South Sudan, the goal is to revive the transport sector as an anchor for meaningful transition from humanitarian to economic growth-led development. Dilapidated transport networks, nonfunctional institutions, and several decades of underinvestment have left the country with a large transport infrastructure gap and one of the most inefficient logistics systems in the world. This study estimates that US$7–9 billion will be needed to bring the level of surface transport to that of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. Freight tariffs, at US$0.2/ton-km, are some of the highest in the world. The average truck speed of 6.4 km/hour is slower than the average speed of a donkey. High transport costs are about 54 percent the cost of logistics. The report analyzes South Sudan’s transport infrastructure, connectivity needs, and investment priorities against the background of the country’s unique geography and recent instability—and its funding and financing constraints. It argues that a “build and they will come” approach will not work. Instead, to materially reduce logistics costs, and meaningfully support economic growth ambitions, South Sudan needs to be selective and focused in making infrastructure investments. The analysis, therefore, focused principally on key agriculture value chains and incorporating the export of refined oil. The assessment of gaps in infrastructure, institutions, policy, and regulations is from the perspective of developing each of these value chains. This does not imply that other sectors should be neglected. It simply means that these selected areas are likely to generate the scale of demand for transport to shape investment decisions. These investments are more likely to lower costs and enhance competitiveness if they target specific sectors and corridors. This is especially true in relation to South Sudan’s economic geography— without enough economic activity, the investment in infrastructure cannot be justified.  xii Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics The specific investment opportunities looked into include: • The key links for regional connectivity • Domestic roads connecting states with a primary focus on the identified value chains • Key policy and institutional reforms to unlock the potential of the transport sector as a motor for accelerated economic growth • A phased approach to capacity building in the transport sector The primary audience for this report is policy makers and senior officials in South Sudan and development partners who are looking to unlock the economic potential in the country. As a result, the report is succinct and does not delve into economic growth theories and academic details. The basic set of recommendations in this report face several cross-cutting obstacles. These must be overcome to help bridge the identified gaps in the transport sector program for investment and reform. The report identifies the following as major obstacles in the transport sector: • Fragmented institutions: The institutions in the sector are highly fragmented, and not properly coordinated, with unclear and sometimes overlapping roles for selecting, planning, designing, financing, and implementing projects. • Governance issues: The sector institutions are also beset with governance problems–which have curtailled effective delivery–and bring into question the value for money of those projects that are selected and implemented for example, under the “Oil for Roads” program. • Lack of coherent sector-wide policy and overarching development strategy: The sector lacks a legal framework with sufficient clarity on mandates; doesn’t have an updated and adhered to policy, strategy and investment plan to guide the sector, has a low operational budget to meet the significant transport infrastructure and maintenance needs; and undertakes limited analytics to inform critical decisions. • Lack of a skilled professional base: Sustainable physical access and connectivity within South Sudan and between the countries of the region requires institutions empowered to sustain and expand the sectoral human capital base over the long term. To address the challenges outlined above, this report develops four main ingredients for an ambitious agenda of connectivity for growth. 1. Select infrastructure priorities for domestic and regional connectivity South Sudan should focus on three main belts of corridors that are key to agriculture value chains and target infrastructure constraints specific to these value chains and associated corridors. Because around 60 percent of the population is employed in agriculture in 2018, it is often their main source of income. However, poor transport and logistics infrastructure makes access to markets very difficult, even where productivity has increased. Investments should be made where they will lower costs and enhance competitiveness for sorgum, fish, maize and potentially the livestock sector. This will allow South Sudan to meet its requirements for food security while being in position to access regional and global markets.  xiii Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Recommendation Rather than plan hundreds of projects, the government should focus on developing (upgrading, constructing, rehabilitating, and maintaining) the following transport infrastructure: • Domestic Roads • Wau-Raja-Boro-Medina Road (360km) • Juba-Kajo-keji-Jale Road (180km) • Rumbek-Maper-Mayendit Road (245km) • Adok-Leer-Bentiu Road (230km) • Bor-Pibor Road (230km) • Ikotos-Kiyala-Mogiri Road (260km) • Bentiu-Pariang-Tonga-Malakal Road (243km) • Regional Corridors • Juba-Torit-Kapoeta-Nadapal Road (360km) • Juba-Renk River transportation section • Juba-Nimule Road (193km) • Malakal-Nasir-Jikao Road (350km) These roads are responsible for 80 percent of domestic agriculture and connectivity to the seaports of Djibouti, Mombasa, Sudan and Lamu. Having these domestic roads and regional corridors in good condition will be transformational in removing the transport and logistics constraints to economic growth in the country. 2. Reimagine transport sector reforms with the aim of accelerating economic growth Weak policy, a lack of legislation and inadequate regulation perpetuate poor governance at many levels in the country’s transport sector. There is limited accounting for how services are delivered to users. Instead of merely updating the 2007 South Sudan Transport Sector Policy, the government should take a fresh look at the sector to reimagine reforms that will accelerate economic growth. Strategic priorities for allocating scarce resources should be based on a clear understanding of each project’s potential to drive growth and reduce social costs. Infrastructure investment decisions should focus on building new transport links, upgrading existing ones, and improving technology and services. Policies guiding these investments significantly impact the supply of goods and services both locally and regionally. Given increasing financing constraints, governments need to use evaluation methods for project appraisals to ensure resources are allocated efficiently, maximizing social benefits.  xiv Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics To achieve this, the government has to create a clear ecosystem of responsible agencies and entities. Recommendation • Undertake a comprehensive institutional reform study to consider sectoral, institutional, and legal frameworks including whether the separation of the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Roads and Bridges, and current assignment of roles and responsibilities between different ministries and agencies is the best way to steer the sector. The final institutional arrangements should take the 2018 Peace Agreement into account. • Accelerate the process for the formation of a full-fledged river navigation authority such as the River Transport Authority. 3. Overcome institutional fragmentation in the selection and approval process for key infrastructure investments South Sudan’s “oil for roads” program and several similar initiatives to improve transport connectivity reveal the gap between investments and institutions. The process of initiating, selecting, and scoping projects seems arbitrary, and as a result, even with available financing, faces challenges to implementation. Most of the transport projects in South Sudan are initiated from top to bottom without a clear connection between the rationale for investment and institutional delivery. A process and rationale for selecting projects is especially critical when the financing available is far less than the needs. Development of transport should be governed by formal processes. Ideally, projects should go through a lifecycle gateway review process from initiation, planning, execution, monitoring, and controlling, and finally the closing stage. This allows the rationale for each project to be contested and aligned with the development priorities. The missing element is a formal process to improve decision-making for key infrastructure projects. Recommendation • Enhance the composition of the existing central unit in the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MoFEP), to include representatives from various infrastructure ministries, to ensure coordination, planning, and spending of critical infrastructure projects, including transport projects. Aim government and development partner funding at a few well-selected projects, starting with the technical preparation of selected domestic corridors (based on the priorities in this report recommendation 1 above, or once the Transport Masterplan is prepared based on the revised list of priority sections). • Streamline the decision making and governance of the oil for roads program by locating under the stewardship of Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning and oversight of the Central infrastructure unit above. Also ensure that this program offers Value for Money by designing it around the best practice principles for “resources for infrastructure” using the elements presented in the pertinent section of this report.  xv Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics • Prepare a Governance Assessment and Action Plan (GAAP) for the road sector. The GAAP can draw on best practices for public investment management, transparent and competitive procurement, robust financial management and financial audits, quality assurance, technical audits, due attention to environmental and social safeguards, value-for-money, and setting up of reporting and complaint mechanisms. 4. Spearhead a deliberate and targeted capacity-building effort involving institutions, personnel, and systems in both the private and public sectors Recognizing the near- and long-term gains by supporting and working with the Engineering Council of South Sudan and professional and discipline-based entities such as the Civil Engineers Society of South Sudan, and the National Association of Consulting Engineers and Architects of South Sudan, will be critical in fostering meaningful improvement of the transport sector. This can be immediate, gradual, or long term. Sustainable human resource development in the transport sector can be achieved through improved collaboration between academia and the sector institutions. These should commence with a needs assessment for institutions, systems, personnel, and guidelines. Recommendation • Conduct a nationwide review of skills required. Focus on academic, professional, and vocational institutions. All government- and donor-funded projects should have a learn-by-doing element so young professionals can be seconded. • The transformation of South Sudan’s transport sector requires a focused, strategic approach (as suggested in this report) in place of scattered investments. By prioritizing specific corridors that support key agricultural value chains, implementing institutional reforms, streamlining project selection processes, and building long-term capacity, South Sudan can begin to bridge its massive infrastructure gap. • This targeted strategy, focused on high-impact investments, offers the best path for transitioning from a humanitarian to a growth-led economy. While the challenges are significant, success in these priority areas will create the foundation for broader economic development and improved living standards for South Sudan’s people. 1 Why transport connectivity and logistics are critical for South Sudan’s development South Sudan’s history with conflict and poor infrastructure has left a struggling economy. This chapter makes a case for robust investments and development strategies to improve the country’s transportation sector, and in turn, the economy.  2 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 1.1 The current state of South Sudan Decades of civil war, recurrent and protracted internal conflicts following secession from Sudan, and economic mismanagement have placed South Sudan among the world’s lowest-performing nations in terms of economic and social outcomes. Since the country gained independence in 2011, its social, economic, environmental, and institutional indicators have fallen further. The country’s transportation infrastructure has suffered as a result, leading to high cost of logistics – among the highest in the world at US$0.20 per ton-km, which in turn has led to the soaring prices of goods. The decades-long neglect of key sectors like agriculture have also contributed to economic decline and social strife. An estimated 9 million people face severe food insecurity, a number made worse by high global food prices and domestic floods. Around 2.5 million people are displaced (up from 2 million in 2022). Additionally, 2.8 million people remain refugees in neighboring countries. The near-constant conflict in the region has also negatively impacted South Sudan’s oil industry. This is troublesome because this sector accounts for about 90 percent of the national revenue, more than 40 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), and almost all of its exports. In response to the decreased oil production, the share of agriculture, forestry, and fishing have increased from around 4 percent of the country’s GDP in 2011 to over 12 percent in 2015. Despite this relatively small share of GDP, in 2018, over 60 percent of the population were engaged in South Sudan’s global standing agriculture. This accounted for more than 60 percent of female employment and more than one-third of male 171/173 in the 2020 World Bank employment. For households that practice agriculture, Human Capital Index ranking it is usually the main source of income (90 percent). About 60 percent of the population depends on livestock 185/189 in the 2019 United Nations rearing for food security and income generation. Human Development Index Although there is readily available arable land and livestock, agriculture production remains extremely low relative to global and even regional peers. Other challenges include poor transport and logistics infrastructure which leads to post-harvest losses and makes access to markets very difficult, even where productivity has increased. This is also a major contributor to the issue of food insecurity. To meet its food security needs, South Sudan needs to double the area under cultivation, or significantly increase agricultural production. Increasing agricultural land use to 10 percent of total land area (6.3 million hectares)—a rather modest goal should the peace process hold, and localized security expand—would increase the value of total agricultural output from approximately US$808 million to US$2 billion. Reducing post-harvest losses, which are currently as high as 50 to 70 percent, could also contribute to this target. The goal of South Sudan’s 25-Year Comprehensive Agriculture Master Plan, in conformity with the National Development Strategy, is to spur the production of priority commodities (sorghum, rice, sesame and fisheries) and bolster their value chains, thus boosting income and the production of more market-oriented and more value-added products. This increase in output would significantly enhance the country’s ability to feed its population. It would also allow the country to increase exports by leveraging the Gulf region’s demand for meat and fresh vegetables.  3 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics In this current state of affairs, South Sudan’s key development challenge is to transition from a humanitarian to economic growth path. 1.2 The need for transport connectivity and logistics to boost development in South Sudan The development of a non-oil-based economy, coupled with diversification toward agriculture and livestock, is a crucial step to alleviate South Sudan’s myriad issues. It will address food insecurity and poverty while boosting economic growth. That said, no country has achieved meaningful economic growth and social transformation without the transportation infrastructure needed to move people and goods. Road transport accounts for more than 95 percent of passenger and freight movement in South Sudan. However, years of conflict have left the country’s transport infrastructure and services in dismal condition. This, therefore, affects access to social and economic activities of most of the population. Almost the entire network is composed of gravel or earth roads that become impassable during the rainy season (Figure 1.1). A journey from the capital, Juba, to the township of Wau, a distance of approximately 650 km, typically takes between two and four days in the dry season. In the rainy season it can take over a week—if the driver makes it at all. A trip of similar distance, from Budapest to Munich, for example, takes seven hours. According to the World Food Program, these impassable roads inflate the cost of relief aid. The cost of transporting 7,000 kilograms of sorghum from Juba to Wau is US$1,583. During the rainy season, the poor state of the roads often forces aid to be transported by air, which costs US$18,000, or more than 11 times the cost of transport by road. Other goods are also transported at such escalated costs. This increased cost of transport is absorbed into the cost of basic necessities and passed down to everyday people. These prices are several times more than prices in neighboring countries.  4 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Figure 1.1 An aid truck stuck in the mud during rainy season Source: UNICEF. As a landlocked country in the center of Africa, sharing borders with six countries—Ethiopia, Sudan, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, and Kenya—South Sudan has limited access to regional and global markets. With the poor roads, minimal river navigation, and non-functioning rail transportation services, imported items cost much more than they do in the neighboring countries. A typical trip from the port of Mombasa in Kenya to Juba illustrates the disproportionate impact of reduced regional connectivity. The cost per km for trucks from Eldoret, Kenya to the South Sudanese border is approximately US$1.6/km. After crossing into South Sudan, this cost rises to an estimated US$4.5/km. The increase is mainly due to bad roads, but also comes from multiple informal checkpoints that levy charges on truckers. On a trip between Juba and Renk on the South Sudan- Sudan international border, there are an estimated 150 checkpoints to pass through. This situation applies to key road routes and also impacts river transport.  5 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics On the socio-economic front, poor transport networks reinforce social divisions and the A typical trip from the port of Mombasa marginalization of large numbers of people, in Kenya to Juba illustrates the which primes conditions for domestic and disproportionate impact that poor regional regional insecurity. Poverty, persistent connectivity has on South Sudan. The cost inequality between social groups, proliferation per km for trucks from Eldoret, Kenya to of small arms and weapons, lack of inclusive the South Sudanese border is approximately US$1.6/km. After crossing into growth, and structural exclusions drive South Sudan, this cost rises to an estimated instability in South Sudan. This affects US$4.5/km, an a disproportionate increase security, tourism, direct foreign investment, of over 180 percent. health, education and road infrastructure, among others. Ideally, a transportation network in good working order is a key contributor to social capital and societal well-being. Adequate services contribute to social cohesion, diminish the occurrence of conflicts and reduce social fragmentation and inequality. Without significant improvements in security, foreign investments in the oil sector will slow, which could lead to dwindling South Sudan oil production and export revenues by 2030. This will be exacerbated by the repercussions of the conflict in Sudan that erupted in 2023. The development of a non-oil-based economy and diversification toward agriculture (crops, fish, and livestock) are central to alleviating South Sudan’s food insecurity and poverty and spurring economic growth. 1.3 A call to invest in South Sudan’s transport sector Rebuilding the transport sector in South Sudan is critical as it can result in lasting impact on multiple fronts. Poor transport networks reinforce social divisions and the marginalization of large numbers of people, which primes conditions for domestic and regional insecurity. Issues such as poverty, persistent inequality between social groups, proliferation of small arms and weapons, lack of inclusive growth, and structural exclusions are drivers of instability in South Sudan. Key sectors affected include security, tourism, direct foreign investment, health, education, and road infrastructure, among others. Adequate functional transport and services contributes to conditions where social services can prosper, and economic activities can blossom. Proper services contribute to social cohesion, diminish the occurrence of conflicts, and reduce social fragmentation and inequality. A transportation network that is in good working order is a key contributor to social capital and to societal well-being, as well as economic development. 1.4 Improving stability and emergency access To minimize the risk of conflict recurring in war-ravaged countries, confidence must be restored in social, political, and economic institutions. Improvements to transport systems can represent visual evidence of an evolving national identity. This enhances the ability of the state to provide security for households and communities. In addition to economic security, improvements to transport allow for improved mobility of law enforcement agents as well as delivery of essential social services.  6 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics During post-conflict emergency and relief phases, the highest priority is to provide emergency services such as medical attention and the delivery of food, water, and shelter. This requires an uninterrupted transport network with passable roads and, where possible, access to rail, river, and air transport. A functional transport network is key to facilitating emergency evacuations in service of life-sustaining aid. 1.5 Building resilient transportation networks A deliberate design approach to transport infrastructure development in South Sudan is The significance of functioning especially critical in the context of climate change. transport infrastructure and Multiple extreme weather events have devastated the services can be assessed by their infrastructure not previously destroyed by the conflict. impact on flow and activity when This has severely disrupted services. New transport it is removed. South Sudan’s dilapidated and deficient transport infrastructure—sections of the Juba-Yirol-Rumbek infrastructure, mainly resulting highway and the Juba International Airport—have also from decades of war and made been affected by flood events. Other hurdles include worse by extreme flooding and extremes in temperature, heavy rainfalls, landslides, heat, has been identified as the drought conditions, flash floods, rising sea levels, most important constraint on and intense storms or winds. economic diversification, inclusive private sector–led growth, and Tackling these disruptions requires a concerted effort productive employment. by the Government of South Sudan, its development partners, and the private sector. Building resilient transportation networks will require tools and approaches that allow climate and disaster risks to be identified and prioritized as part of the decision-making processes and, most critically, included in investment planning and design.1 The identification of possible solutions is key to securing the planned transport infrastructure, keeping in mind the potential vulnerabilities. These adaptation solutions can be either hard2 or soft.3 An important part of the approach will be to align climate adaptation measures with existing sectors or country resilience plans, naming key actors responsible for putting the plan in action. A transport system that cannot withstand the emerging impacts of climate change will prove burdensome and an impediment to recovery, resilience, and economic growth. It will impose high costs of maintenance and repair, limit community access to jobs, schools, and hospitals, and cause large economic losses. On the other hand, a well-functioning transport network, with climate-proofed infrastructure, will enhance the resilience of communities and support wellbeing outcomes. The World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal and the Nature Conservancy’s Climate Wizard are two examples of publicly 1 available tools for identifying location-specific climate information. 2 Such options involve on-the-ground physical infrastructure and technical equipment, like structural flood protections, and a variety of ecosystem- or nature-based adaptation measures. 3 Soft adaptation encompasses management, operational or policy changes, and capacity-building and knowledge-management activities necessary for successful project implementation. Such measures establish the enabling conditions and institutional design necessary to ensure effective implementation of their “hard adaptation” counterparts.  7 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Figure 1.2 A completely flooded and washed-out feeder road in northern Bahr el Ghazal state Source: WFP Note: Construction of this road was completed in 2018. The geocells designed to strengthen the weak roadbed were completely exposed in 2022. 1.6 Driving meaningful economic growth The significance of functioning transport infrastructure and services can be assessed by their impact on flow and activity when it is not available. High levels of development are synonymous with high-density transport infrastructure and highly connected networks. South Sudan’s deficient transport infrastructure has been identified as the most important constraint on economic diversification, inclusive private sector-led growth and productive employment. The private sector could be a key partner as a source of innovation, expertise, and finance for achieving sustainable development. Investments in energy, warehousing/storage, and transport (predominantly roads) are critical to growth in rural areas.  8 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics However, any growth led by the private sector would be challenged by the political instability and economic uncertainty of the country. Other challenges like poor infrastructure, patronage, corruption, bureaucratic impediments, regulations, and policy are within the control of the government. Studies of the seven Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) towns—Aweil, Bor, Rumbek, Torit, Wau, Yambio, and Yei—revealed that the continued decline in the purchasing power of the South Sudanese pound and the lack of foreign exchange were hugely influential in shaping private sector business. Trade is being hindered as the spending power of the populace erodes. The present lack of confidence in the stability of South Sudan affects the private sector’s ability to obtain finance, hampering investments in raw materials, equipment, and productive technology. 1.7 Stepping up for sustainable growth in South Sudan The Government of South Sudan’s National Development Strategy (2018–21) (NDS) recognizes the need to diversify sources of economic growth, to raise productivity in non-oil export sectors. The 2017 South Sudanese Comprehensive Agriculture Master Plan (CAMP) anchors the country’s vision to the development of its agricultural sector. The plan forecasts a significant decline in oil revenue and anticipates a need to compensate for it by cultivating non-oil sectors, including agriculture. It acknowledges that revenue and economic benefits from oil must be invested in agriculture (and other non-oil sectors) rather than used for the consumption of imported goods and the export of capital. Without significant improvements in security, foreign investments in the oil sector will slow, which could lead to dwindling South Sudan oil production and export revenues by 2030. This will be exacerbated by the repercussions of the conflict in Sudan that erupted in 2023. A healthy agricultural sector (crops, fish, and livestock) is central to alleviating food insecurity and poverty in the country. It could also drive economic growth and employment. Overall, the existing transportation infrastructure problems (whether related to assets, capacity, or institutions) in South Sudan are daunting. While transport by itself is not a sufficient reason for development, the availability of appropriate transport infrastructure ensures an inclusive development process. It improves the capacity of governments to provide basic services and of populations to participate equally as citizens in economic and political activities. Addressing South Sudan’s transport infrastructure issues will require resources—human, technological, financial, and time—to bring the road transport network up to par with that of Sub-Saharan Africa. 2 Overview of South Sudan’s transport and logistics challenges Despite having great potential in road, air, and water transportation, South Sudan has been unable to tap into them to improve connectivity. This chapter offers insight into problem areas and potential investment and development strategies.  10 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 2.1 Understanding the scale of South Sudan’s transport infrastructure issues South Sudan has one of the world’s largest transport infrastructure gaps and the most inefficient logistics systems. Freight tariffs are among the highest in the world at US$0.2/ton-km. The average truck speed is 6.4 km/hour, slower than the average speed of a donkey. The underlying factors for these are a dilapidated transport network, non-functional institutions, and several decades of underinvestment. Initial estimates suggest US$7–9 billion will be needed to bring surface transport on par with Ethiopia, Kenya, and Uganda. Impact on road network The impact of South Sudan’s The existing road network in South Sudan is classified transportation gap according to $0.2/ton-km: Cost of freight tariffs, • Type among the highest in the world • International $7–9 billion: Financing needed to bring surface transport on par with • Interstate surrounding countries • State 54% of logistic spends is due to high transport costs • County 50–60%: Percentage of income • Local spent by daily workers on commute • Function 60% of firms cited transport to be a major to severe obstacle to • Mobility doing business • Access The total length of the road network in South Sudan is approximately 90,200 km. This is composed of approximately 14,000 km of primary and secondary roads, 6,000 km of tertiary roads, about 5,000 km of interstate and international roads made of gravel, and approximately 300 km of sealed roads. The remaining national, interstate and urban roads are mainly unmaintained dirt roads. As shown in Map 2.1, most of the key interstate roads are in very poor condition and impassable for most of the year.  11 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Map 2.1 National strategic roads ROAD CONDITION FAIR POOR IMPASSABLE IBRD 48425 | OCTOBER 2024 Source: Original analysis based on Ministry of Roads and Bridges data from 2023. Map 2.1 also reflects the extremely low road density in South Sudan, both in terms of area (19 km of road per 1,000 sq km) and population (1.3 km/1,000 persons). The density of paved roads is insignificant, at 0.2 km/1,000 km2. Compare this to an average of 16.8 km for Sub-Saharan Africa and 9.9 km for low-income fragile states in Africa. These conditions contribute to the high costs of transport and logistics, and have carry-over effects on productivity, cost of living, and ease of doing business. In a private sector survey, as part of this diagnostic, about 60 percent of South Sudanese firms rated transport to be a major to severe obstacle to doing business. Spotli ht Cost of fr i ht tr nsport in South Sud n Th cost to ship 20-foot cont in r from Europ to Jub vi Momb s is US$9,285 US$7,200 US$2,150 Tot l inl nd tr nsport tion Cost of tr nsport tion from Momb s to K mp l . nd h ndlin costs from US$5,050 Momb s to Jub , of which: Cost of tr nsport tion from K mp l to Jub . This is du to: 1 D l s 2 Non-t riff 3 Import rs must p both inbound n rout b rri rs nd outbound shippin costs 4 Poor ro d 5 Multipl inform l 6 Poor 7 Hi h hint rl nd infr structur s curit ch ck points s curit costs Source: Republic of South Sudan Developing Capacities for Trade Integration and Economic Diversification.  12 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Impact on rural and urban population Access to an all-season road significantly increases the welfare of rural households, offering better access to jobs, markets, and essential social services. The Sustainable Development Goal Indicator 9.1.1 refers to the proportion of rural population who live within 2 km of an all-season road. A measure of rural accessibility tracks the progress toward better transport services in low- and middle-income countries. Results from a study on the Rural Access Index indicate that most Sub-Saharan countries are below 51 percent, and 24 countries—including South Sudan—are below 20 percent.4 Efficient rural transport systems involve complementarity between small- and large-scale transport modes operating to and from hubs in villages, market centers, or towns. Poverty and unaffordable rural transport form a vicious circle as poor connectivity promotes isolation and restricted mobility. Despite a growing urban population since independence, transport infrastructure and services in the country have not kept pace. Between 1972 and 2016, the proportion of the population living in urban areas increased from 8.6 percent to 18.8 percent. This absence of adequate transport infrastructure continues to limit businesses from expanding across major urban locations. Most average wage earners in Juba, Bor, Wau, Torit, and Malakal either walk to work or spend approximately 50 to 60 percent of their meagre income on commuting. Impact on safety Safety too remains a development challenge, especially for women, children, and elderly people. Market traders Safety remains a development surveyed by von der Goltz et al. (2021) consistently challenge, especially for women, reported bad and dangerous roads as one of the most children, and elderly people. prominent obstacles. Road traffic in South Sudan is Road traffic in South Sudan considered very dangerous, with an average of 3,623 is considered very dangerous, traffic fatalities per year during 2012–22. with an average of 3,623 traffic fatalities per year during 2012–22. Available information indicates a significant increase in In addition, bandits continue to operate with impunity along most crashes and casualties on upgraded roads such as the South Sudanese roads as responses Juba-Nimule, Juba-Bor, and Juba-Terekeka. While the to incidents are delayed due to government and private actors have tried to educate the numerous choke points and the masses through awareness campaigns via various impediments. media outlets, statistics show that the alarming frequency and severity of crashes persist. In addition, bandits continue to operate with impunity along most South Sudanese roads. They take advantage of the fact that responses to incidents are delayed due to the numerous choke points and impediments. The overall situation calls for urgent action to enhance road safety by integrating safety concerns in road design, enforcing periodic vehicle inspections, identifying choke points, traffic rules enforcement, adopting the appropriate management techniques, better training drivers, and advancing effective emergency response services. 4 An assessment by the World Bank in 2019 indicated a Rural Accessibility Index of 14.4 for South Sudan.  13 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Impact on railway network The railway network in South Sudan is limited and has not been operational for decades. The only railway line in the country is a 248 km narrow-gauge single-track portion running from Wau-Aweil to the border with Sudan. For the railway sector to play a role in the transport system, the lack of a comprehensive development program, legal, institutional, and regulatory frameworks, and investment opportunities must be addressed. Impact on river navigation There are seven functional river ports in South Sudan, namely Renk, Malakal, Shambe, Diam Diam, Bor, Mongalla, and Juba. Due to the poor road infrastructure and presence of land mines in some areas, most of the population finds river transport along the White Nile and its tributaries a practical and cost-effective option. Running toward the border with Sudan, about 1,300 km of the White Nile between Juba and Renk is partially navigable, albeit with many challenges. Some of the tributaries of the White Nile—the Bahr el Ghazal, Sobat River, and a section of the tributary from Malakal to Abwong River—are navigable, but are generally unsafe and prone to frequent disruption from extreme flooding and drought. Toward the north of the country, the poor river system remains the only link to the capital city of Juba. Apart from transporting people, the World Food Programme (WFP) is the main customer for barge owners as they supply humanitarian aid to communities affected by conflict and floods. However, South Sudan’s river navigation system suffers from lack of maintenance and investment. Inadequate navigation aids and difficult river conditions are a significant impediment to the effective development of river transport. The deteriorating security environment coupled with numerous unauthorized checkpoints along the Nile, especially between Adok and Malakal, compound the development obstacles. Yet, significant improvements may be in the offing. River ports are currently managed by a ministerial order that empowers the River Transport Authority. With support from Japan, South Sudan has constructed a jetty, offices for port officials, and open-air storage facilities at Juba River Port. Plans are underway for the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to upgrade the port facility to a modern, well-equipped facility with an extended jetty, warehouse, and administrative buildings. Impact on air transport South Sudan’s air transport infrastructure is composed of the international airport in Juba, 4 domestic airports in Rumbek, Paloich, Wau and Malakal respectively, and about 30 airstrips distributed throughout the 10 states. During the civil war, the airstrips were military and logistics bases and later served as hubs for humanitarian relief by international relief agencies and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). Juba International Airport (JIA) is the main gateway to South Sudan, linking the country to Africa and the rest of the world. The country has committed resources to improving the aviation subsector.  14 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics However, the services and commercial orientation still leave much to be desired, due to poor infrastructure and operations. An estimated US$50 million is needed for security and improvement of airside and landside infrastructure at JIA, especially since the number of passengers is estimated to reach 1 million by 2037. Significant focus needs to be put on commercial arrangements and services. In addition to the growing international aviation operations in South Sudan, the sector supports domestic demands for air transport (for passenger and cargo) between Juba and the states and operations by UN and aid agencies. In sum, the aviation sector is also in poor condition and requires significant investment. 2.2 The challenges and potential of developing strong transport networks The main operational corridor, through which over 90 percent of all imports enter and leave the country, is through Uganda, which eventually connects to the port of Mombasa. This route is long and expensive. Under the Eastern Africa Regional Transport, Trade and Development Facilitation Project (EARTTDFP), a new corridor was initiated in 2013 with financing from multiple donors and led by the World Bank. The road was meant to connect Kenya and South Sudan and be a direct route from Juba to Eldoret through Torit, Kapoeta, Nadapal, and Lodwar, eventually connecting to the Mombasa and Lamu ports. In 2018, the World Bank canceled the financing for the South Sudan portion due to the conflict. To date, the Kenya corridor of the EARTTDFP is substantially completed. Although discussions to restart the South Sudan portion of the corridor occurred in May 2023, there has been no significant headway. Other initiatives such as the LAPSSET Corridor Project have also been put forward to improve regional connectivity. This project includes a memorandum of understanding between Ethiopia and South Sudan to construct the Ethiopia–South Sudan road. South Sudan’s integration with the Horn of Africa region and the wider East African economy has the potential to spur economic growth. The development of regional economic corridors that tackle access to transport, energy, the internet, telecommunication, and trade have been found to deliver positive outcomes. A recently published study on the potential impact of infrastructure development on the Horn of Africa found that a coordinated expansion in access to roads, electricity, and the internet using an economic corridor approach could help drive structural change for employment (estimated at a 12 percent increase in the share of services employment). The development of such corridors is expected to support three important objectives: 1. Reduce travel time to the port for landlocked regions 2. Generate domestic and regional economic activity along the corridor (including in marginalized areas) 3. Promote intraregional trade  15 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Map 2.2 Breakdown of the Eastern Africa regional transport, trade and development facilitation project WESTERN EQUATORIA S O U T H S U DA N JUBA Kapoeta Torit CENTRAL Nadapal Karungu ETHIOPIA EQUATORIA EASTERN Yei EQUATORIA Lokichogio Lake Mandera Turkana PHASE 1 Moyale Lodwar El Wak S OMALIA PHASE 2 D. R . O F Marsabit CO N G O UGANDA EASTERN RIFT VALLEY Wajir Malaba Kitale Maralal K E N Y A NORTH-EASTERN Eldoret Mando Busia WESTERN Gashi Kakamega Isiolo Nanyuki Meru Kisumu Lake Kericho Nakuru Garissa 0 50 100 Kilometers Nyeri NYANZA CENTRAL Embu Victoria Nguni Narok Thika NAIROBI Kitui NAIROBI KENYA Machakos INDIA N SOUTH SUDAN – EASTERN AFRICA Bodhei OCE A N REGIONAL TRANSPORT, TRADE AND Namanga Garsen Lamu DEVELOPMENT FACILITATION PROGRAM Voi COAST EXISTING NATIONAL OPTICAL FIBRE BACKBONE INFRASTRUCTURE (NOFBI) LINKS Taveta TA N Z A N I A Malindi PROPOSED NOFBI PHASE II LINKS CITIES AND TOWNS EXISTING NOFBI LINKS PROVINCE CAPITALS (KENYA), TEAMS EXISTING TELKOM KENYA LINKS STATE CAPITALS (SOUTH SUDAN) EASSy PROPOSED PHASE II LINKS NATIONAL CAPITALS Mombasa SEACOM PROVINCE BOUNDARIES (KENYA), IBRD 48426 | OCTOBER 2024 Kwale EXISTING SUBMARINE FIBRE OPTIC LINKS: STATE BOUNDARIES (SOUTH SUDAN) This map was produced by the Cartography Unit of the World Bank LION-2 TEAMS SEACOM Group. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of the World Bank Group, Shimoni EASSy LION-2 INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Source: World Bank. In the regional context, South Sudan needs to develop critical corridors to access neighboring countries and seaports. A review of the institutional and policy context of the transport sector in South Sudan reveals major gaps. The issues revealed in the study include: • Lack of a coherent policy and development strategy • No legal framework with sufficient clarity on mandates • Low operational budget • Overlapping roles of six ministries • Low retention of skilled professionals in the sector • Limited analytics to inform critical decisions  16 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics These conclusions are not surprising given the decades of conflict and a missing or dysfunctional government. The report recommends that the Government of South Sudan develop a roadmap for improving the sector, including through the preparation of a national transport master plan. It should carry out a deep sector diagnostic on institutional roles and responsibilities and prepare a pipeline of well-designed projects that are ready for financing by development partners. Figure 2.1 Why should ministries that are not core to the transport sector (such as justice, trade and industry) be involved in building roads? Ministr of E st Afric Communit Aff irs Ministr of N tion l R v nu Tr d nd Industr Ministr of Tr nsport Authorit Ministr of Ro ds nd Brid s South Sud n Ro ds Authorit South Sud n Civil Avi tion Authorit South Sud n Ch mb r Ministr of of Comm rc , Industr Justic nd A ricultur Source: World Bank. However, the Government of South Sudan does not have sufficient capacity to bridge the country’s vast infrastructure challenges. National institutions are understaffed as most of the skilled workforce has fled due to the conflict. Yet, the academic and vocational institutions that should provide the pipeline are under-resourced. The Ministry of Roads and Bridges, Ministry of Transport, and South Sudan National Roads Authority exist officially, but are not equipped for the scale of infrastructure development that the country needs. In addition to the skill gap, there is insufficient capacity to assess and manage environmental and social risks in South Sudan. Much remains to be done to make policies, laws, and regulations operational for national- or state-level environmental and social oversight. These policies are either newly endorsed, under development, exist in draft form, or are newly ratified: National Climate Change Policy, National Environment Policy, National Environment Management and Coordination Act, and an Environment and Social Impact Assessment Regulation.  17 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 2.3 Efforts taken to revive the transport sector Roads In 2019, the Government of South Sudan initiated the “oil for roads” program (Map 2.3) to construct roads connecting the capital, Juba, to other parts of the country. The first roads to be completed were the 198 km Juba-Bor and 63 km Juba-Terekeka roads. Construction has also started on the 550 km Terekeka-Yirol-Rumbek-Wau, Wau-Gogrial-Akon-Aweil, among others. Construction of the Juba-Yei-Kaya road, Juba-Mundri-Maridi-Yambio-Tambura-Wau road, and Juba-Torit-Kapoeta-Nadapal road has stalled. However, these segments, once completed, will have a tremendous impact on the economy of the country and on the employment of its population. The newly completed Juba-Bor highway can be seen in Figure 2.2. Figure 2.2 Section of the newly completed Juba-Bor highway Source: Radio Tamazuj, “Feature: Newly Completed Juba-Bor Highway Opens Up Opportunities, Hope for Jonglei,” May 15, 2023, https://www.radiotamazuj.org/en/news/article/feature-newly-completed-juba-bor-highway-opens-up-opportunities- hope-for-jonglei.  18 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Map 2.3 The “Oil for Roads” program: planned and actual progress Renk Malakal 0% 0% Gok Machar 0% 0% Bentiu Wanyjok 0% Mayom 15% 5% Wunrock Aweil 5% Gogrial Kuajok Ayod 0% 0% Deim Zubeir 5% Wau Tonj 0% PROGRESS % Rumbek 0–9 Yirol 10% 0% 45% Bor 10 – 19 Mvolo 20 – 29 Tambura 85% 30 – 39 Mundri Terekeka 10% 10% 40 – 49 100% Maridi 50 – 59 10% Kapoeta Yei Juba 60 – 69 Yambio 0% Lainya Nadapal 70 – 79 Torit 0% Yei 10% 80 – 89 90 – 100 Morobo IBRD 48427 | OCTOBER 2024 Kaya Source: World Bank, based on Ministry of Roads & Bridges data 2023. Various development partners have supported the Government of South Sudan in its effort to revive the transport sector. For example, the European Union (EU) Delegation, Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands (see the construction of the Torit Magwi Road in Figure 2.3), JICA, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), and the World Bank have financed several roads and bridges projects through the World Food Program (WFP), United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS), and other implementing agencies operating in South Sudan.  19 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Figure 2.3 Construction of the Torit-Magwi road in Eastern Equatoria with funding by the Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands Source: Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands. Through grant funding from Japan, the first arched steel bridge across the Nile was constructed in Juba. The preparation, design, and construction of the Freedom Bridge began in 2013 and was completed on May 19, 2022. It replaced the old Juba bridge that was significantly impacted by age and cumulative loading. A symbol of hope and peace for South Sudan, its completion is expected to spur trade with Kenya and Uganda, from where a significant amount of inflow of goods to South Sudan is derived (see Figure 2.4). Figure 2.4 The Freedom Bridge over the Nile in Juba, Central Equatoria Source: Deng Machol, “South Sudan: A Ray Of Hope in New Permanent Bridge over Nile,” Pan African Visions, June 15, 2022, https://panafricanvisions.com/2022/06/south-sudan-a-ray-of-hope-in-new-permanent-bridge-over-nile/. In September 2023, with funding from China, the construction of a new bridge over the Jur River in Wau (Western Bahr el Ghazal) was also completed. Similarly, the Juba River Port along the Nile was improved by funding from the Japanese government, administered by JICA.  20 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Air Upgrades have also been made to physical infrastructure and monitoring systems at JIA. Construction of the air traffic management system, a new air traffic control tower, an operations building, and navigation and communications systems have been completed. There is tight scrutiny of airlines operating in the country following a few incidents that resulted in loss of lives and property. Plans are in place to further improve security at JIA and to extend similar upgrades to other domestic airports and airstrips across the country. In 2023, the Government of South Sudan began the construction of a US$15 million international airport in Gogrial West County, Warrap State. The goal of the project is to connect Warrap State and its surrounding subregion to the world. According to public statements, this will aid the export of milk, beef, vegetables, and other agricultural goods, and spur development in the region. The foundation stone was laid in February 2022 and work commenced in August 2023. Rivers In 2018, JICA commissioned a study to inform donors and the government as they decide to fund the implementation of a river barge transportation system. The study determined that there was an economic case for a river barge transportation system, given that key prerequisites were in place. Crucially, it was determined that the management of the river port was random and inefficient, and that the river was heavy with silt and vegetation cover—mostly seen in the Juba-Bor stretch. Although ports would require expansion, the current priority is for rehabilitation of the existing facilities. The second is the installation of river navigation aids. Expansion will be conducted gradually. A key determination is that the government should own the equipment for dredging, vegetation clearing, and river training. Whether or not the operation would be outsourced, the ownership would ensure routine and periodic maintenance. The overarching requirement for the success of this undertaking is the establishment of a government-level institution charged with the management and coordination of all aspects of the river navigation. Overall, South Sudan has among the world’s worst statistics on transport and logistics. It will require decades of coordinated work to revive the transport and logistics sectors, both of which are critical for economic growth and social cohesion. Thus far, the development of the road network has been piecemeal and not fast enough. While efforts to revive the transport sector are plausible, there is no clarity around how current projects were conceived. There is a huge gap between project design and available evidence. For example, while a study proposed dredging and vegetation clearance along the stretch of the Nile between Juba-Bor and downstream, the government focused on similar projects of lesser priority in the Bentiu area instead. It is not clear how the proposed apron and presidential terminal at JIA fits into the JIA master plan and what the budgetary implications will be. What is clear is that it will complicate existing efforts to revive the transport sector by competing for resources. The competition may lead to critical projects stalling due to lack of resources. 3 Revisiting the ‘oil for roads model’ in South Sudan Following the decision to develop road infrastructure with external funding and two conflicts in the 2000s, South Sudan needs a unique approach to investment. This chapter looks at case studies of various resources-for-infrastructure initiatives and puts forth suggestions for South Sudan if this route is adopted.  22 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 3.1 Status of funding for road infrastructure The road sector in South Sudan needs massive investment to bring it to an acceptable standard, yet the status of funding and financing the sector remains dire. Since 2011, the government’s policy position emphasizes developing road infrastructure through external financing to lower its overdependence on traditional public-sector funding. This policy reduced fiscal allocations to the sector institutions for development and maintenance. This became worse after the conflicts in 2013 and 2016, in addition to the power imbalance in allocating resources due to the other competing needs of the country. The road sector institutions were made dysfunctional, and the whole road network was impassable, particularly during the rainy season (see Table 3.1). Table 3.1 Road sector budgets and expenditures by fiscal year USD Million (Average: USD 1 = SSP2.96) 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 Ministry MRB MRB MTRB MTRB Budget 187.5 100% 12 100% 124.9 100% 54.7 100% Operations/Goods and Service 3.5 2% 3 25% 4.2 3% 8.8 16% Expenditure 285.4 100% 0.8 100% 131.1 100% 61.2 100% Operations/Goods and Service 2 1% 0.2 26% 0.7 1% 2 3% SSRA SSRA SSRA SSRA SSRA Budget 0.05 100% 2 100% 1.7 100% 1.4 100% Operations/Goods and Service 0.03 63% 0.1 5% 0.8 50% 1.4 100% Expenditure 0 0% 2.3 100% 0.4 100% 1.3 100% Operations/Goods and Service 0 0% 0.5 22% 0.2 62% 1.2 94% USD Million (Average: USD 1 = SSP155) 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 Ministry MTRB MRB MRB MRB Budget 41 100% 0 0 0.4 100% 3.20 100% Operations/Goods and Service 3.9 10% 0 0 0.1 3% 0.20 6.3% Expenditure 0 0 0.0 0% - 0 Operations/Goods and Service 0 0 0.7 21% 0 0 SSRA SSRA SSRA SSRA SSRA Budget 5.7 100% 0 0 1.3 100% 9.2 100% Operations/Goods and Service 1.6 29% 0 0 0.04 0.03% 0.1 0.01% Expenditure 0 0% 0 0 0 0% 0 0 Operations/Goods and Service 0 0% 0 0 0.04 0.03% 0 0 Source: World Bank. Notes: 1. South Sudan shut down oil production in January 2012 for 15 months with dramatic effect on budgets and expenditure. 2. Production was partially halted in 2013 and 2015 due to internal conflict. 3. SSRA staff are on contract hence their salaries appear as goods and services.  23 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics This situation prompted the government to initiate a series of policy measures aimed at addressing the challenges of limited access to debt financing, as well as domestic capacity for the development of infrastructure. One such initiative includes the Oil for Infrastructure financing model, which resulted in the allocation of 10,000 barrels of crude oil per day to fund the road infrastructure development in the country. This was later increased to 30,000 barrels of crude oil per day after the government signed the first civil works contract for the Juba-Rumbek road (397 km) in March 2019, followed by many other road contracts, including the construction of the Juba to Bor road (200 km). At the January 2025 price (US$74 spot price) for a barrel of crude oil, 30,000 barrels per day translate to US$2.2 million per day. This is a significant financial commitment. Despite the certainty for road development that this model brings, the policy has no clear set-out framework or mechanism for its governance. Additionally, the model carries considerable risks and challenges for both the private sector (or counterparty) and government, a concern that requires appropriate policy actions. The most critical concern is whether the Government of South Sudan is getting value for money from this program. As such, there is need to review the existing funding and financing policies and strategies as well as introducing new legal instruments to achieve efficiency in the current context of the country. The recent conflict in Sudan has greatly impacted the production and export of oil from the Abyei region and pipeline through Port Sudan. This situation has exposed the drawbacks of over reliance on oil for development and the need to unlock new drivers of economic growth. 3.2 Using natural resources to finance infrastructure Leveraging natural resources for economic development is a concept that seems intuitive and has been practiced by several resource-rich countries. Countries endowed with assets such as minerals, oil, gas, or other natural resources (like cocoa) often aim to transform these into assets like physical infrastructure or human capital that can support employment and stimulate economic growth. This transformation is particularly advantageous for developing countries with limited capital, as revenues from resource sales which are largely in foreign exchange can enhance their fiscal capacities. However, achieving this transformation has proven challenging, with few developing economies finding success as economic growth remains suboptimal in resource-rich developing countries compared to those without such resources. Overall, the landscape of financing models for public infrastructure in developing countries has evolved significantly over the years. Traditionally, governments would secure loans from multi-development banks (such as the World Bank or AfDB) or private institutions (such as through PPP) and then procure construction firms or consultants to complete the projects. However, due to limited access to capital markets or the high cost of borrowing through these traditional approaches, developing countries have explored a number of financing options, some of which are linked to the country’s natural resources. In this process, loans are taken in exchange for physical natural resources or money from resource sales through a mechanism called resource-backed loans.  24 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics If these loans are taken to finance infrastructure projects, two key models can be distinguished: 1. Resources-for-Infrastructure (R4I): Involves promising actual resources to the lender who provides funding to develop the infrastructure. 2. Resource-financed infrastructure (RFI): Uses income from resource sales to repay loans, with the resources serving as collateral. Often, these two terms are used interchangeably, but as noted above, there is a difference between them. Under R4I, the Government counterparty organizes finance and builds the infrastructure now in exchange for receiving predetermined resources over a set period of time e.g. barrels of oil per day. Under RFI, the Government borrows money now to build the infrastructure in the short term, with the loans repaid from and secured by future resource revenues. Table 3.2 SWOT analysis of the RFI model   Strengths   Weaknesses • New financing opportunity for resource-rich • Not well known or used by most lenders and governments needing basic infrastructure. investors, with few successful implementations. • Based on a well-known resource • Higher capitalized interest compared to development model. other models. • Infrastructure can be built immediately thus • Lack of transparency in the formulation of benefitting the population earlier rather than contracts, negotiation and signature can lead to waiting for a long time to secure financing to a lack of value for money. build it. • Insufficient capacity on the Government side • Governments can pledge future resource revenue can lead to terms that are skewed in favor of the streams for credit facilities. lender/builder. • Infrastructure can be developed through direct • Cannot be used during resource exploration government procurement or PPP structures. licenses due to uncertain revenue streams. • Non- or limited-recourse financing based on forecast and pledged revenues.   Opportunities   Threats • New opportunity for development and economic • Risks include unsustainable debt, corruption, growth where project finance or sovereign credits poorly negotiated contracts, and low-quality are not viable. infrastructure. • Suitable for projects that stimulate economic • Lenders may not devote the same attention to growth or create social benefits exceeding infrastructure components as in project finance borrowing costs. transactions. • Excess government revenues from the • Lenders/Builders might not pay sufficient resource component remain the property of attention to social and environmental safeguards the government. issues like environmental degradation, pollution, • R4I contracts can reduce risks and costs by labor issues, resettlement, and gender-based bypassing bureaucracy and setting off taxes, violence. royalties, and dividends against infrastructure loans and costs. Source: Adapted from Halland et al., 2014; Zongwe, 2016.  25 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 3.3 Recommendations for the South Sudan Resources for Infrastructure Model RFI deals, commonly seen in Africa and Latin America and often with the creditor being China, offer a unique approach to financing development by leveraging natural resources as collateral for loans aimed at infrastructure projects. Case studies of interest include countries like Angola. The lessons learned from these models inspire some recommendations of best practices or core principles that would be beneficial to the South Sudan resources for infrastructure model. These are highlighted in Table 3.3. Table 3.3 Recommendations for the South Sudan resources for infrastructure model Aspect Recommendation Sound Legal Develop a sound legal and regulatory framework that sets out the rules of and Regulatory the road governing R4I or RFI deals to increase investor confidence but also Framework improve on the aspects of transparency and value for money Fiscal Discipline • The fiscal regime must be considered to ensure the financial viability of RFI/R4I transactions. This includes understanding the tax implications, revenue-sharing agreements, and how the transaction fits within the broader fiscal policy of the host country • Oil revenues should be consolidated in treasury and properly allocated and accounted for under the budget process Dedicated Oversight RFI/R4I transactions are large, complex, and high value, necessitating Unit a dedicated Project Implementation Unit (PIU) to manage structuring, negotiation, implementation, and supervision. Each stakeholder must protect its interests throughout the process to ensure a favorable outcome Contract Selection The selected projects should be those of the highest priority selected on a robust Process basis given their social and economic returns, serving as critical links in the transport system for transportation of goods and people to unlock development in the country e.g. roads prioritized to rejuvenate the agriculture sector. Candidate projects should be part of the National Transport Sector Masterplan Value for Money • Conduct competitive processes for award of contracts, and justified basis for the unit costs of construction and total contract price based on similar comparators in country or from similar countries in the region • Engage qualified advisors early to ensure the host government’s interests are protected. This approach enhances control and increases the likelihood of success. The government should seek advisors before introductory meetings and definitely before discussing term sheets or a memorandum of understanding (MOU) • Specify minimum performance or standard specifications for infrastructure components (including technical, social and environmental criteria to be met), and conduct post-construction technical, financial, and safeguards audits to ensure the infrastructure was built to standard and in accordance with the set criteria • Hire independent supervision and monitoring firms to oversee construction, environmental, and social requirements  26 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Aspect Recommendation Transparency • Disclose the contract amounts, loan or R4I terms, parties involved, and basis for award • Disclose information on project construction progress both in terms of physical and financial progress • Integrate these contracts into the Public Investment Management framework Sourcing Ensure sufficient participation of local professionals, and local sub-contractors in the contracts implementation to build local capacity, and also set minimum national content requirements to ensure local material sourcing that benefits the host country Risk Management • Contract liabilities should be allocated based on an agreed risk allocation approach. This method ensures lower prices and better risk management. Risks should be allocated to the parties best able to bear them, with incentives for proper risk management • Managing volatility in natural resource revenue or natural resource volumes is crucial to prevent fluctuations in output, government spending, real exchange rates, and disputes between the parties. Set transparent basis for the price of the commodity based on market prices from a reputable index source, and clearly indicate how risks relating to forex distortions or other destabilizing factor like conflict will be managed in the contract Sustainability Transport infrastructure is a high-value investment, and all efforts must be made to ensure that it is suitably maintained. Governments can use credit facilities to purchase multiyear O&M contracts or find alternative funding sources for O&M costs including tolling, financing from road funds or central budget 4 Closing the gap: Critical domestic and regional corridors, institutions, and financing Addressing the most important and beneficial corridors for development will aid South Sudan’s economy before moving onto less critical zones. This chapter identifies these areas based on the economic and social benefits, as well as analyzing institutional and financial goals for the same.  28 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 4.1 Prioritizing connectivity for key value chains South Sudan is a landlocked country that shares borders with six other nations.5 The country is in the Horn of Africa (HoA)—a region commonly associated with fragility, catastrophic droughts, extreme flooding, and seemingly intractable conflicts. Multiple factors have created tensions within and between countries, at times boiling over into inter- and intra-state violent conflicts. These conflicts have weakened the capacity of these and other neighboring countries to foster sustained economic growth, provide basic public services, maintain social cohesion, and reduce the vulnerability of their populations (particularly in historically marginalized border areas). This in turn increases the risk of future conflicts. Climate change exacerbates this situation, leading to increased tension over natural resources. These factors have led to record numbers of displaced people and increased migration, mostly irregular, to the Gulf countries.6 This scenario has played itself out in South Sudan. Within the country, connecting states and communities is a challenge. South Sudan needs to The internal road network of most states is either nonexistent be selective about what or in extremely poor condition and has inadvertently transport infrastructure fragmented the country. Quality road links to different parts of needs to be developed South Sudan are missing, such as the connections between the and the sequence of Upper Nile state and Juba. A lack of linkages between states unlocking drivers of isolates entire communities, such as the lack of functional growth. Potential drivers roads in the Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity states. The fragile of growth in South Sudan are predominantly in the status of the country drives up the cost of construction. Limited agriculture sector, as information on the potential of infrastructure development, manufacturing has not upcoming investments, poor procurement practices, shortage seen much development. of skilled operators and technicians, and high cost of living also drives up costs. The domestic construction industry is very underdeveloped. Road sector institutions are hindered in their ability to effectively and efficiently implement major road programs. The country lacks the required policy and institutional framework. Key constraints hindering the implementation of road works include: • Inadequate implementation capacity • Poor capacity to manage maintain, and operate existing and new infrastructure • Inability to apply internationally recognized safety and security standards These needs and gaps are a major impediment to economic growth. The country needs a comprehensive pipeline of properly designed, critical projects that can be financed by various development partners in a coordinated manner. This should be supplemented with incremental but impactful capacity building for the country’s unique context, economic growth aspirations, demography, and geography. Ethiopia, Sudan, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, and Kenya. 5 6 In 2018, over 315,000 migration movements were observed between the HoA and the so-called Eastern Route (toward Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula), increasing to 469,000 in 2019  29 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Selectivity and focus South Sudan needs to be selective about what transport infrastructure needs to be developed and the sequence of unlocking drivers of growth. Manufacturing has not seen much development; it is estimated that less than 1 million tons of manufacturing exists. Over 73 percent of all manufactured goods are from the United Arab Emirates, Kenya, and China. There are several indications that mining remains unexplored, and in the absence of detailed and credible geological explorations, only the oil sector is currently exploited. Compare this to the fact that over 4 million tons of agricultural crops are produced in South Sudan. Therefore, the agriculture sector is predominantly the potential driver of growth. In the absence of proven mining reserves that are available for short-term development, export potential is limited to raw agricultural products and agro-processing, either for exports or to replace imports. These are mainly crops and produce. The demand is evenly distributed across the country. High demand is exhibited in most counties of Central Equatoria, Eastern Equatoria, Northern Bahr El Ghazal, Western Bahr El Ghazal, Warrap, Jonglei, Lakes, and Unity. The lowest demand is in the counties of the Upper Nile and Western Equatoria States. Identifying key nodes like terminals and freight villages can consolidate the industry. In South Sudan, this is crucial, as economic activity and agriculture are concentrated along key corridors. The challenge lies in making these corridors functional and adding value through activities like sorting, grading, and processing.  30 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Freight flow modeling Investing in freight flow improvements in emerging markets offers higher returns compared to developed countries. Freight flow modeling helps identify current routes, potential infrastructure upgrades, and strategies for cost reduction and mode shifts, especially when high-density areas are targeted. For this report, freight flow modeling was used to pinpoint routes, quantify current volumes, and assess demand based on production and population density. This modeling helps identify gaps in infrastructure and potential new flows. Most of the agricultural supply and production is in the northwestern Warrap region at the Juba-Wau corridor and in the northeastern Upper Nile region, which is somewhat removed from the heartland despite being connected by the Nile. The total supply (Map 4.1) can also be disaggregated by specific types of food products per county (as indicated in Map 4.2) and by volume (as shown in Figure 4.1). Map 4.1 Total agricultural supply by county TONS 0 – 8,077 8,078 – 18,373 18,374 –31,315 31,316 – 46,463 46,464 – 64,113 64,114 – 80,215 80,216 – 113,321 113,322 – 135,992 135,993 – 345,242 345,243 – 549,612 IBRD 48428 | OCTOBER 2024 Source: World Bank.  31 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Map 4.2 Supply of agricultural product types by county GRAIN SORGHUM MAIZE RICE CASSAVA GROUND NUTS MILK IBRD 48429 | OCTOBER 2024 SUPPLY IN TONS 0.0 – 1,180.8 1,180.9 – 3,513.9 3,514.0 –6,860.9 6,861.0 – 12,151.4 12,151.5 – 19,171.3 19,171.4 – 29,095.6 29,095.7 – 50,847.2 50,847.3 –115,379.2 115,379.3 – 182,328.9 182,329.0 – 518,240.4 Source: World Bank.  32 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Disaggregation introduces a lens to understand transport demand by showing areas of production and commodities in various jurisdictions. A World Bank study on the potential of agriculture production in South Sudan provided details on key commodities. This modeling allows for selectivity based on volumes and supply chains. Figure 4.1 shows the volumes of respective commodities. Figure 4.1 Total freight of agriculture crop commodities 0.1 Ground Nuts 0.5 *Oth r 0.6 0.2 C ss v S s m S d 0.7 Fruit 1.4 Gr in Sor hum 0.7 V t bl s Source: World Bank. 4.2 Crop value chains Crop value chains were modeled on supply and potential demand, using the Sub-Saharan Africa Map SPAM Over 80 percent [of the population] dataset. These models benchmarked farming practices practice agropastoralism and rely to determine potential demand. Grain sorghum has the on livestock for their livelihoods. highest potential based on current production in the Agropastoralism is estimated to Warrap and Upper Nile regions. contribute US$3.0 billion of national GDP, but only a small fraction of its Grain sorghum from Warrap reaches the capital commercial value is realized. through the Juba-Wau corridor. But production in the northeast Upper Nile region is basically nonexistent due to lack of connectivity. Production per hectare is low, mostly used for subsistence, or lost to the adjacent Sudanese economy. Large potential is lost due to low yields, difficult connectivity, and getting production factors to increase yield. Map 4.3 shows the disaggregated flows for the main crops.  33 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Cereal grains, particularly sorghum and maize, make up one-third of the total agriculture crop output. It is estimated that the net cereal production in 2023 was about 840,000 tons (after deducting 20 percent to postharvest losses and seed use). Total cereal consumption was estimated at about 1.3 million tons. Domestic production volumes only cover two-thirds of the domestic cereal needs. Map 3.4 shows the main supply areas of sorghum and maize and their potential. The 840,000 tons are produced over an area of 1.4 million ha, with a low yield of 600 kilograms/ha. The challenge is how to produce sufficient volumes to meet national demand and have enough to export to neighboring countries or other markets. Moving the product to where consumption takes place (to eliminate imports) and exporting the excess (to grow the economy) will only be possible with effective and efficient infrastructure. Based on this modeling, critical gaps have been identified as shown in Map 4.4.  34 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Map 4.3 Flow of key crops GRAIN SORGHUM MAIZE RICE CASSAVA GROUND NUTS MILK IBRD 48430 | OCTOBER 2024 1,000 tons 10,000 tons 50,000 tons 100,000 tons 1,000,000 tons Source: World Bank.  35 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Map 4.4 Potential value chain production of sorghum 1,638 Melut Pariang Fashoda Maban Abiemnhom Guit 450 918 Fangak Twic Rubkona Longochuk Aweil West Koch 306 Maiwut Raja Aweil Aweil Gogrial West Centre South Leer Ayod Nyirol 720 Uror Akobo Wau Rumbek North Duk Tonj South Panyijiar Twic East Pochalla Cueibet Rumbek Centre Yirol East Pibor Nagero Yirol West Wulu Bor South Pilbor2 Mvolo Tambura Mundri West Terekeka Ezo Kapoeta Maridi Mundri Juba Lafon North East Nzara Ibbo Kapoeta Torit Yambio South Kapoeta East ROAD CONNECTIVITY REQUIRED Yei Lainya Budi Magwi Kajo-keji Ikotos IBRD 48431 | OCTOBER 2024 THOUSANDS OF TONS Morobo *Increase Grain Sorghum 9 times—increase average yield—from around 600 kg per ha to 3 tons per ha. Note: ha = hectare; kg = kilogram. Source: World Bank. Other important agricultural products include vegetables, fruits, and cassava. Despite having lesser volumes and lower potential, they could benefit from possible sorghum development. South Sudan has high potential to produce sesame seeds and is currently ranked fifth in the world for areas in which sesame is harvested. It is produced both by smallholder farmers and at commercial scales in the Upper Nile region. Investments in sesame can add up to US$31 million, benefitting 40,978 smallholder farmer households. The internal rate of return is 37 percent with a net present value of US$17 million. Another key cash crop is coffee, which is mostly produced in Yei. Production of limited-edition coffee was supported by Nespresso, Techno Serve, and USAID, and over 700 farmers received training. This support was disrupted by conflict, though it is considered central to the livelihoods of most farmers south of Yei. 4.3 Milk and meat value chains Milk and meat are largely the products of informal livestock farming. Most livestock production, especially cattle, is undertaken in the arid and semiarid zones such as east Equatoria and northern Bahr el Gazal in either nomadic pastoralist or mixed crop-livestock systems. Over 80 percent practice agropastoralism and rely on livestock for their livelihoods. Agropastoralism is estimated to contribute US$3.0 billion of national GDP, but only a small fraction of its commercial value is realized.  36 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Despite having high commercialization potential, livestock are viewed as a status symbol. Cattle and small ruminants are mainly used for payment of dowry, settlement of disputes, meat consumption during cultural events, and to supply milk. Agropastoralists and pastoralists routinely exchange livestock for cereals during the dry season or at times of crisis. Sales of small ruminants are an important source of income that largely determine a farmer’s capacity to purchase food items, while poultry dominates poorer household sales. A recent assessment by the World Bank concluded that due to social norms, livestock value chain development has the potential to ignite conflicts or jeopardize already stretched social networks. 4.4 Fish value chain The fisheries sector in South Sudan produces about 140,000 tons/year and is a direct source of income for more than 1.7 million people. Fish is mostly sourced from the Sudd region of the Nile and from over 20 other rivers, including Nile, Sobat, Hazal, and Naam, and several lakes (such as Pagarau and Yirol). The Sudd swamps between Malakal and Bor are critical sources of fish for the river Nile, the largest potential source of freshwater fish in South Sudan. The rich biodiversity consists of microphytes and over 100 species, reported to come from an area estimated to be 80,000 sq km. Anecdotal evidence and local reports suggest huge potential in the fish value chain, but no complete data could be found on volumes. Estimates suggest 17 percent of households are involved in some kind of fishing. The total number of jobs related to the fish value chain could be well over 600,000. Women constitute at least half of this number. Most of the fish in South Sudan comes from Bor, Yirol, Terekeka, Mangala, Awerial, and the Upper Nile region. The total inland catch production in 2023 was around 320,000 tons. However, the country is also dependent on imports of fish and fishery products to satisfy the limited per capita fish consumption, estimated at US$617,000 in 2017. The fish is packaged in production areas such as Bor, Kalthok, and Terekeka, and finally transported by road to Juba where most of it exported to the Democratic Republic of Congo and the West Nile region in Uganda. The local market is dominated by sales to hotels, restaurants, and other public and private institutions. Fishermen use rowboats and fishing nets. The fish is sold at makeshift markets on riverbanks and transported to Juba using light commercial vehicles (both private and public), motorcycles, and motorboats. However, a significant proportion is transported to Uganda and on to the Democratic Republic of Congo. Overall, South Sudan is currently a net importer of fish. There is consensus on the stable and underexploited state of South Sudan’s fishery stocks, with a sustainable catch threshold considered to reach 400,000 tons per year. Although commercial farming has potential, it has not been developed sufficiently. Before independence, aquaculture was reported to be widespread in the country. There may still be potential in the Central, Eastern, and Western Equatoria states and in the Northern and Western Bahr El Gazal states, as well as in Warrap State.  37 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics With targeted interventions, the fish value chain could be improved as domestic and foreign demand rises. Accessibility to markets is a major bottleneck for the development of the fish value chain. In most areas remote from urban centers, artisanal fishers are constrained to sell their fish to traders and have little bargaining power. Lack of storage facilities and processing technologies has contributed to postharvest losses of about 40 percent. Shelf life is usually prolonged by drying (Figure 4.2), salting, or smoking. Figure 4.2 Bundles of dried, salted fish ready for export or domestic distribution near new Bor River Port Terminal. In February 2023, each bundle of fish cost around US$900 Source: World Bank. 4.5 Identifying critical corridors for domestic connectivity Freight flows were modeled and analyzed for sorghum, maize, fish, and to a limited extent, meat and milk. Due to South Sudan’s data scarcity, a hybrid approach based on freight surveys, vehicle counts (supply side), and freight modeling (demand side) makes more sense. This approach is the most data intensive but delivers the richest outputs to understand disaggregated flows by commodity, geography, and origin-destination flows across an economy.  38 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics The hybrid freight flow model was developed using publicly available data sources from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and WFP, and national statistics from the Government of South Sudan. Modeling is usually based on the disaggregation of the GDP of a country. Commodities travel through value chains from points of supply to points of demand. Supply is described by either production or imports and demand is either by intermediate consumption, final consumption, or export. To be useful, a further spatial disaggregation is required on a county level. In many counties, it is possible to derive disaggregation through social accounting matrices, usually on a commodity value level. These can also be disaggregated to a county district level using indicators such as population, size, and installed infrastructure. However, it is possible to gather more precise data rather than modeled data in many instances. It is more difficult in data-scarce environments, but not impossible in reasonably simple economies such as South Sudan. A large portion of supply and demand is imported and exported, and trade data can be used. With little manufacturing, aerial crop surveys and global mining databases describe almost all supply. Demand modeling, except for exports, is a little more complex, but established research provides reasonable estimates of consumption per capita. This hybrid approach delivered more robust results. With inputs from local experts, the model was validated by comparing determined production and derived consumption with trade data to establish internal consistency. This enabled the team to deal with anomalies. The current major production areas for sorghum are in potentially difficult areas given South Sudan’s configuration as a country, available infrastructure, and geopolitical circumstances. One area is at the end of a challenging road corridor that is 622 km from the capital. The other has better geopolitical connections to Sudan, but is difficult to reach except via the Nile, which currently has many navigation challenges. An obvious solution for the northwest would be to develop river navigation, but for this to work, consolidation centers are needed to improve the corridors. An obvious solution for the northeast would be a connection to the Nile with domestic consumption sent south and exports sent north to Kosti from where they could be sent by rail to Port Sudan. However, this is not an option due to geopolitical considerations.  39 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Three critical domestic corridors were also identified. Their location follows three assumptions: • Sorghum production yield can be increased to a more acceptable international standard. • Export markets can be developed. • Internal cultural shifts could increase interest in agricultural growth. To achieve these, it would be necessary to move production from the north to the south for domestic consumption, and further south for exports (in the absence of Kosti, Port Sudan would be the better option). As the living standard increases, the movement of grain sorghum from the north—and other food from Kenya and Uganda—will be replaced by production elements such as farming equipment and materials like fertilizer, enhanced seeds, and more consumer goods. Flows to the south will increase from a low level, but in total, a more bidirectional flow of traffic could be expected between Wau in the northwest, Renk in the northeast, Juba, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Uganda. The net result of these value chains could be the movement of 1.638 million tons directly from the northeast to Juba and 756,000 tons through connecting roads from Malakal. A further 1.632 million tons could reach Juba from Wau by connecting roads to Aweil, Tonj, Gogrial, and links to the capital. Map 4.5 Proposed changes to road and inland water transport, informed by agricultural freight flows N2 Aweil South – Twic Malakal – UC A25 – Aweil North A20 A10 A20 A20 N1 A15 A20 – Aweil Center Aweil South – Gogrial West A25 A35 A30 A40 A85 Wau – UC N1 N2 A60A A50 A60 A60 N1 A85 ROAD CONDITION Narus – Boma FAIR A15 N1 A75 A70 Torit – Lafon POOR N1 N1 A45 A55 N1 IMPASSABLE A75 A55 IBRD 48432 | OCTOBER 2024 A45 Source: World Bank.  40 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics A combination of connecting roads is the core infrastructure needed to improve connectivity. The key links and secondary roads include these connecting roads: • Juba-Wau-Aweil • Juba-Nimule • Juba-Yei-Kaya • Juba-Maridi-Yambio-Wau • Wau-Kuajok-Tonj • Pageri-Magwi-Lobone • Juba-Yei-Morobo-Kaya • Juba-Kajokeji-Jale The development of the Nile between Renk and Juba is yet another key to improve connectivity. These interventions could potentially unlock 2 million tons of sorghum exports and replace 518,000 tons of imports. See Map 4.5 for proposed changes to roads and waterways. Key domestic corridors and the potential they unlock To diversify the economy and shift away from the overdependence on oil, the government could tap into these areas to generate revenue: • Mining • Construction • Investment in agriculture • Livestock and fisheries • Tourism However, all these sectors are underdeveloped. The agriculture value chain and an analysis of freight for agricultural commodities points toward sorghum as the most highly produced crop. It has high export potential and is consumed by most of the population. Subsequent sections of this report provide details on freight volumes that selected corridors will unlock.  41 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Map 4.6 Critical domestic corridors identified for intervention Pariang Malakal Bentiu Tonga Raja Leer Boro Medina Adok Mayendit Wau Maper Rumbek Pibor Bor Juba Mogiri Keyala Ikotos Kajo Keji IBRD 48433 | OCTOBER 2024 Domestic Corridors • Wau-Raja-Bora-Medina road (360km) • Juba-Kajo-keji-Jale (180km) • Rumbek-Maper-Mayendit road (245km) • Adok-Leer-Bentiu road (230km) • Bor-Pibor road (230km) • Ikotos-Kiyala-Mogiri (260km) • Bentiu-Pariang-Tonga-Malakal road (243km) Source: World Bank. Some of the major domestic corridors consist of systems of roads and inland water transport (IWT) that provide connectivity between supply and demand points. River ports are points of embarkation and disembarkation for agricultural produce. They are more effective when connected via road to inland areas and via navigable waterways to other ports. The prerequisite for a multimodal system is that the links (rivers and road) and nodes (centers and river ports) are simply connected and proximal to other distribution channels. The identified road corridors have the potential to move  42 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 147,000 tons (largely grain) per segment between Juba, Rumbek, Wau, Bor, Bentiu, and Adok. The potential extends from and into areas that are far from navigable rivers like the Kajokeji, Wau, Raja, Pibor, Ikotos, and many others. These areas have improved river ports located on the Juba-Renk River transport corridor. A key feature of the analysis and modeling was estimating the agricultural potential if points of connection existed. Figure 4.3 shows countryside roads and the current volumes of freight. Figure 4.3 Freight volumes along key roads 700,000 600,000 m nt 500,000 400,000 M x Tons of S 300,000 200,000 100,000 - Jub -R nk-Riv r M l k -Jik o Bor-Pibor Jub -N d p l B ntiu-M l k l Ro d Adok-B nti Ikotos_Mo iri Jub -K jo=K ji ndit Boro-M din -W u Jub -Nimul Rumb k-M R ion l Dom stic 1.5 million tons 605 thous nd tons Source: World Bank. Reviving river navigation The river is the only viable means for long-distance travel in South Sudan and requires significant investment for recovery. For decades, the waterway navigation system has received little attention from policy makers. Necessary maintenance and investments were limited. Apart from several donor-related activities, no major sector-wide development activity has taken place in the last decade.  43 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics With this low scale of development, knowledge about the waterway system has also decreased. In general, the sector faces a capacity gap, which can also be related to the fact that before the civil war, major waterway transport entities and schools were located in Sudan, but no proper system was built in South Sudan after independence. A holistic approach of maintaining access to the river, designing and constructing river ports, and improving navigability is urgently needed. By improving transport connections, South Sudan can take advantage of the natural endowment of the White Nile. It is an enormous asset and is mostly navigable for approximately 1,300 km between Juba to the border with Sudan, close to Renk. In a report released in 2018, a study on the river barge transport system was conducted by HYDROC GmbH with funding from JICA. It aimed to help donors and the government make a well-informed decision about whether to fund the implementation of a river barge transport system on the White Nile. A key priority was the creation of a government institution responsible for the system. Along with the coordination and management role central to the project, the office would be responsible for managing an uncertain security situation, initial dredging and vegetation clearing, rehabilitation and expansion of river ports, installation of navigation aids, and routine and periodic maintenance. Due to the inherent advantages of river navigation, several industries and private entities have also taken steps to revive river transportation. Recently, a few new shallow draught vessels were constructed and deployed on the river. The improved river posts along the river transport corridor are at Renk, Malakal, Bor, and Juba. Other critical but underutilized ports are at Shambe, Mangala, Adok, Bentiu, Melut, and Terekeka. This untapped potential calls for targeted studies and adequate management that would include institutional restructuring at the Ministry of Transport (MoT). The restructuring would include establishing the River Transport Authority to add impetus to the revival of the river transport system and boost connectivity.  44 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Map 4.7 Potential interventions in roads and inland water transport Melut Malakal Bentiu Adok Shambe Bor Minkamman Terekeka Mongalla Juba IBRD 48434 | OCTOBER 2024 Disclaimer: Preliminary numbers, based on the current available data. Waterway Terminal Tons Juba 598,152 Bor 265,220 Renk 238,652 Adok 207,018 Malakal 152,648 Terekeka 89,528 Shambe 88,784 Mangalla 82,313 Bentiu 78,785 Melut 66,637 Source: World Bank.  45 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics For decades, the waterway navigation system has received little attention from policy makers. Necessary maintenance and investments were limited. Apart from several donor-related activities, no major sector-wide development activity has taken place in the last decade. With this low scale of development, knowledge about the waterway system has also decreased, and in general, the sector faces a capacity gap. The capacity gap can also be related to the fact that before the civil war, major waterway transport entities and schools were located in Sudan, but no proper system was built in South Sudan after independence. However, due to the inherent advantages of river navigation, several industries and private entities have taken steps to revive river transportation. Recently, a few new shallow draught vessels were constructed and deployed on the river. In a report released in 2018, a study on the river barge transport system was conducted by HYDROC GmbH with funding from JICA. It aimed to help donors and the government make a well-informed decision about whether to fund the implementation of a river barge transport system on the White Nile. A key priority was the creation of a government institution responsible for the system. Along with the coordination and management role central to the project, the office would be responsible for managing an uncertain security situation, initial dredging and vegetation clearing, rehabilitation and expansion of river ports, installation of navigation aids, and routine and periodic maintenance. In traditional project approaches, governments build infrastructure expecting the market to use it, but when results fall short, they resort to strategies like stimulus packages. Recent experiences show that combining infrastructure investment with active market support works better. Waterway transport faces higher entry barriers compared to trucking, leading to slower development due to inexperience and these challenges. However, river basins that have used a more holistic approach with active support have seen better results, which is why this method is being applied to improve IWT in South Sudan. In conventional project approaches, governments often provide infrastructure with the expectation that the market will react by using it. When the strategy does not yield the expected results and ad hoc promotion programs fail, other strategies, including furnishing stimulus packages to the market, are deployed. Recent experiences have underscored that holistic approaches are more successful when infrastructure investments are accompanied by active market stimulation and support programs. In waterway transport, the barriers to entry are much higher than for other modes, such as trucking. That combination, a lack of experience and existing barriers, has led to a generally slow pace of development. Many river basins using a holistic approach with active support measures have seen tangible results and more success. For this reason, this approach has been followed to enhance IWT in South Sudan. The World Bank is supporting the government in efforts to revive and (re)develop the IWT system. All aspects of the IWT ecosystem are being considered—the markets, infrastructure, equipment, human factors, governance, and the latest insights in these fields. The approach considers all other uses of the waterways, applications of nature-based solutions, and smart and green technologies. Stakeholder participation is a key part of the holistic approach. The relevant government entities, donor organizations, shippers, port and vessel operators, and academics envisioned and prepared the IWT development strategy for South Sudan by applying the results-based management methodology. Through field research, a series of workshops, and consultation meetings, a development plan was produced.  46 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics The plan defines realistic interventions, measures, and actions in four different areas: (i) Infrastructure (ii) Operations (iii) Markets (iv) Governance A fifth cross-cutting issue centers on human resources and capacity development. Immediate progress can be made by focusing on developing the White Nile between Juba and Bor, where cargo volumes are growing, and there is a clear need for better vessels and terminal operations. However, in the northern part of the country, from Shambe to Malakal, waterway operations face major challenges due to safety concerns and illegal tolling, with limited control in the area. While efforts have been made to regain control, tangible results may take time. The development plan includes involving local communities in waterway management to strengthen local commitment to sustainable solutions and their benefits. Short-term results can be achieved when prioritizing the development of the White Nile between the ports of Juba and Bor. This is a stretch of river where cargo volumes are present and growing, and a pressing need for improved vessels and terminal operations is evident. In the northern part of the country, beyond Shambe up until Malakal, where there is limited control of the area, the waterway operations are severely hindered by safety issues and illegal tolling. Actions were announced to take back control, but implementation and quick results may take considerable time. The development plan foresees involvement of local communities in waterway management and operations as a way toto increase local commitment to sustainable solutions and the related benefits. The strategic development plan for reviving the White Nile for enhanced IWT contains a set of 40 balanced and interrelated interventions in the four priority areas, and also consider human resources and capacity development. Following the participatory approach, the plan was validated by stakeholders. The main goals and intervention areas are summarized in Figure 4.4.  47 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Figure 4.4 Key interventions envisioned to improve inland waterway transport • Ph s d w t rw up r din nd d v lopm nt pl n (n vi tion conditions) Infr • Ph s d port d v lopm nt pl n • V ss l tr ffic m n m nt s st m • Improv d fl t ( ffici nt, s f nd cl n) • Ports r quipp d with mod rn h ndlin quipm nt V ss ls nd • Cr w nd st ff is tr in d nd wh r n d d c rtifi d Ports • Priv t busin ss inv sts into d v lopm nt of w r housin nd lo istics • IWT is cost ff ctiv nd comp titiv Comp titiv n ss • M rk ts r conn ct d in ffici nt w s to w t r • Busin ss s h v cc ss to IWT polic inform tion to m k busin ss d cisions S ctor • Int r nc int r ction llows for r spons to ch ll n s Gov rn nc of d cision-m kin • R ul tor s st m for s f t , nvironm nt l, cc ss to th m rk t, nd prof ssion • C p bilit nd qu lit of st ff Hum n • C p cit nd numb r of st ff r sourc s • Ad ptivit to ch n in circumst nc s, nd fit for futur Note: IWT = Inland Water Transport. Source: World Bank. Interventions were prioritized based on urgency, impact, and ease of implementation. The sequencing was done in the validation stage with input from private, public, and academic stakeholders. Budget estimates were prepared in the early project preparation period. A less detailed plan was also prepared for the project implementation period that follows the preparation stage. The short-term implementation plan focused on the waterway between Juba and Bor.  48 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Other accompanying measures without which the investments would be less effective were identified. In preparation for hard infrastructure investments, these studies were initiated: • Bathymetric and hydrodynamic surveys of the main navigable route between Juba and Bor. • A satellite assessment of the navigable route between Bor and Renk, including tributaries such as Bahr-el-Ghazal and the Sobat River. • Reviews and assessments of port infrastructure and related facilities for the section between Juba and Bor. In the preparatory phase of the project, one-third of the budget was reserved for infrastructure improvements. The remaining supported the necessary capacity building and governance of the sector, market development, and improved operations. In the implementation stage, a significant share will be reserved for infrastructure interventions, with a significant amount remaining for allocation to market development, improved operations, governance, and capacity building. Improving aviation Driven by development in the oil and mining sectors, and with widespread operations by development An increase in business travel, agencies, there was a remarkable increase in passenger humanitarian aid, and family occupancy on domestic and international flights. reunions, exacerbated by poor Air transport becomes the only safe and available mode road transport infrastructure and of transport for both the public and private sectors services, continues to fuel traffic during specific periods of the year like the rainy season growth at JIA. Provided the security situation remains stable, and travel or during periods of internal conflict or community restrictions are progressively lifted, flareups. In addition to one international airport and the forecasts expect the airport to four domestic airports in the country, over 30 airstrips reach 1 million passengers between have been built. Each of the 10 states in South Sudan 2034-37. has at least one—some have two or more, though they operate with challenges that go unaddressed. Juba International Airport (JIA), the main entry point for international travel and the delivery point for commodities, has capacity issues that the government attempted to address. But it remained incomplete for over 10 years following the outbreak of war. Infrastructure to manage air traffic does not exist. This leaves it beholden to Khartoum in Sudan, the neighboring country that controls the upper airspace. This dependence costs South Sudan millions of dollars each year in lost revenue due to a lack of transparency. Although the country took control of its lower airspace from Khartoum in December 2021, 10 years after independence, it lacks the infrastructure to allow it control of the upper airspace. However, construction of the terminal is almost complete and a handover is imminent. Safety has also been a major issue. The lack of a fully functional regulatory body to enforce checks and monitor aircraft safety has led to crashes resulting in the loss of life and property. The absence of a regulator also impacts airport staff who, without proper training, cannot provide the kind of service that would enable efficient operations. One result is unnecessary delays and inconvenienced travelers.  49 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics To improve the infrastructure and level of service at JIA, the Government of South Sudan sought assistance from the World Bank. The issues raised by the government include: • Lack of resources, inadequate policy, institutional, and regulatory framework and a need for capacity building. • Aging infrastructure that requires repair and investment to expand capacity to meet anticipated increases in traffic. However, no funds are available to properly plan an investment program. • Inadequate levels of services for airlines and passengers and the South Sudan Civil Aviation Authority’s (SSCAA) lack of resources to improve the situation. • JIA has yet to be audited for safety and security oversight by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and, as a result, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) is under pressure from regulators and airlines that want to use South Sudan’s airspace. In August 2022, representatives of the International Finance Corporation (IFC), an arm of the World Bank, assessed the key commercial indicators and infrastructure at JIA. An increase in business travel, humanitarian aid, and family reunions, exacerbated by poor road transport infrastructure and services, continues to fuel traffic growth at JIA. Provided the security situation remains stable, and travel restrictions are progressively lifted, forecasts expect the airport to reach 1 million passengers between 2034-37. Through a proposed public-private partnership (PPP) arrangement, the IFC advised implementation of a two-phased approach to improve infrastructure and services at the airport. Phase 1, considered an urgent intervention, would consist of a US$46 million investment comprising these actions: • Construction of a perimeter security fence and service road along the perimeter fence. • Reinforcement of the runway, repair on the apron, drainage system upgrade/completion, and repair/replacement of all navigation aids. • Completion of Terminal 2 to enable the use of the two terminals in the near future. Phase 2 consists of apron repair, expansion of other passenger terminals, and movement toward a master plan. Improving urban mobility in Juba and secondary cities Developing efficient urban mobility in Juba and secondary cities is critical to development. Urban mobility in Juba and other emerging cities is faced with challenges such as a lack of integrated planning which leads to urban sprawl, poor public transportation, incoherent congestion management, and undirected financing for critical infrastructure. Without adequate transport facilities in place, the availability of social services, waste management, utilities, security, and justice in urban settings is hindered. Inefficient transport systems generate congestion and hobble productivity. Transport corridors in urban settings have the potential to generate increased economic opportunities for households and firms. Unlike Malakal and Wau, the capital city Juba accommodates quite a few firms that supply the country with goods and services. It is also the most highly populated city among the three commercial hubs. The city hosts the seat of national government, which gives it prominence  50 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics and makes it a driving force as far as service delivery for the country is concerned. The recurrent conflicts in recent times have further fueled rural-urban migration in South Sudan, with most migrating to Juba for safety and economic reasons, thereby swelling the population of the city. Though the management of national utilities such as electricity and water reside in Juba, core urban services By using modern applications, such as liquid and solid waste disposal, the regulation it is possible to predict traffic of public transport, and the maintenance of feeder “hot spots,” accelerate emergency roads—most of which are not asphalted—fall under responses, and facilitate smarter the management of the city council. In the absence of traffic engineering. Vehicle data independent budgets allocated at the national level for can convey an accurate picture of urban councils, and with no available analysis of urban what is happening on the road to council income or expenditure, even though revenues improve real-time traffic flows and are collected and services financed at the urban council support intelligent and responsive level, these authorities face tremendous hurdles in operations of advanced traffic discharging their core services as mandated. Ensuring management systems. consumer freedom in the use of transportation systems in urban settings is hindered by these aspects: • First-mile and last-mile service for transit users that connect underserved communities to jobs and services is limited. • Facilitating movement of goods and services into and within the city is constrained. • Parking systems are inefficient. • There is little focus on optimizing traffic flows on the most congested streets in urban centers, especially in Juba. Although Juba and other emerging cities are well-defined, mobility remains limited. In Juba, only a few roads have been upgraded for year-round use, and these improved roads are not well integrated into the overall network, leading to inefficient traffic flow and congestion. Some road improvements have even caused congestion at points where multiple upgraded roads meet. Most of the local workforce spends hours commuting on public transportation, while private vehicle users save time but contribute to increased congestion and environmental harm. Because of congestion, an enormous amount of time and fuel is wasted by automobile users, which creates uncertainty for drivers and freight. Trucks stuck in urban congested traffic cost shippers a considerable amount of what they earn annually in truck operating costs and wasted fuel. Offsetting such impacts calls for ring roads to divert truckers out of busy city centers. Ensuring urban roads are wide enough to handle traffic increases capacity and reduces congestion. This is especially crucial for Juba, as all deliveries from the Mombasa seaport to Central Equatoria, Western Equatoria, Bahr el Ghazal, and parts of the Upper Nile must pass through the city. The situation is worsened by the fact that there are only two entry points into Juba from the east—via the old Juba Bridge and the Freedom Bridge. Without adequate ring roads in Juba and other urban centers, mobility issues will persist. Future improvements could include intelligent traffic management, optimized planning, and updated logistics solutions.  51 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Though Juba and other emerging cities are well demarcated, mobility in all of them continues to be limited. Using Juba as an example, only a few of the roads in the city have been improved to a level that allows year-round use. Additionally, the improved roads are not suitably integrated into the road network to facilitate efficient traffic flow and mitigate traffic congestion. There are instances where improvements in road segments have led to congestion at specific nodes where several improved links converge. The majority of the local working population spends hours getting to and from work every day, using public transportation, while private transport commuters may save time at the cost of aggravating congestion and damaging the environment. During monsoons, portions of the urban centers in South Sudan are temporarily cut off from basic services such as water supply from tankers and the removal of solid and liquid waste. Reports of security incidences in locations with restricted access during the rainy season are high compared to other more accessible quarters in the capital. Response times are long and bandits take advantage of the temporary isolation. Availability of the required funding to ensure all feeder roads in urban centers are improved to sustain year-round usage would positively impact mobility, service allowances, productivity of the urban populations, and overall, the country’s economy. Because of congestion, an enormous amount of time and fuel is wasted by automobile users, which creates uncertainty for drivers and for freight. Trucks stuck in urban congested traffic cost shippers a considerable amount of what they earn annually in truck operating costs and wasted fuel. Offsetting such impacts calls for the presence of ring roads to divert truckers out of the busy city centers. Ensuring that roads inside the urban centers are of optimum width increases their holding capacity and reduces the congestion that would otherwise occur. This approach is particularly important for Juba, given that all deliveries from the seaport of Mombasa to Central Equatoria, Western Equatoria, the Bahr el Ghazal region, and parts of the Upper Nile cannot avoid passing through Juba city. This is exacerbated by the fact that there are only two entry points into Juba from the eastern part of the Nile—one via the old Juba Bridge and the other via the Freedom Bridge. Without adequate ring roads in Juba and in other urban centers in South Sudan, the current mobility issues will continue to exist. To benefit users in the future, intelligent traffic management, optimized transport solutions for planning, and updated transport logistics could be used. Recently, to improve the urban transport system, the government initiated an upgrade for 35 km of the roadway in the city of Juba. The work commenced in January 2024. However, it was done without the prerequisite prioritization, planning, and studies to decide which critical road sections would make an impact. Additionally, there was no project initiation document or project brief that followed to systematically implement the directive. Most projects were stalled by March of the same year. This has complicated movement along these routes, compromising accessibility because of an abundance of loose materials and debris which remain from the initial stages of construction. To date, there are no defined parking areas in Juba or other urban centers in South Sudan. It is common practice for cars in urban centers to be randomly parked for extended periods with impunity. This, in most cases, affects road capacity, creates congestion, and increases the likelihood of traffic accidents. This causes further traffic issues and obstructs public access. Regulating parking will significantly improve mobility in urban centers across the country. Incorporating commercial parking spaces into the design of commercial buildings and providing commercial parking for private cars across urban centers will provide convenient alternatives for car users and reduce congestion. These measures can be aided by introducing breakdown services, regulating road space use for economic activities and sociocultural activities, and barring construction that  52 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics encroaches on the right-of-way. Parking spaces on the outskirts of urban centers can be created for long-distance truckers. Traffic personnel can remove vehicles that have broken down and impound vehicles that are wrongly parked. Urban transport mobility issues occur either due to rapid urban development or low-quality transport infrastructure. The current use of roundabouts—manned during peak hours—does not provide an efficient solution to the congestion issues, especially in Juba. When it comes to keeping roadways safe and traffic flowing, municipalities can tap into more data than ever before by leveraging real-time vehicle data generated by millions of connected cars on the road. Adopting recent developments and technology using signalized junctions would greatly improve mobility issues facing Juba and other emerging urban centers. By using modern applications, it is possible to predict traffic “hot spots,” accelerate emergency responses, and facilitate smarter traffic engineering. Vehicle data can convey an accurate picture of what is happening on the road to improve real-time traffic flows and support intelligent and responsive operations of advanced traffic management systems. It is largely correct to assume that most residents of Juba and other urban centers do not own a car. Incorporating sidewalks and lanes for cyclists, bikers, and pedestrians into urban road designs would reduce congestion, accidents, and improve mobility. Also, incorporating limited traffic areas in historic downtown areas and city centers would significantly reduce congestion and improve mobility. Realizing these changes would require revision of the South Sudan Design Manual and Standard Specifications. The revision would need to consider lessons already learned, trends in urban transport infrastructure and services, and the changed national environment. Stormwater drainage has been a persistent issue affecting the efficiency and effectiveness of the existing road network. A report on Juba Urban Transport Infrastructure and Capacity Development, conducted in 2010, showed how persistent flooding on the roads could be addressed. The study also presents an overall layout of road drainage. The road improvement work to decongest Juba had not been based on studies or accounted for the critical issue of storm water drainage and road drainage. This oversight led to the failing of critical sections of the road network and flooding of homesteads close to improved roads. Therefore, there is a need to improve storm water drainage and road drainage specifically, to fit into a comprehensive city drainage plan. 4.6 Priority regional corridors Regional integration with the HoA and the East African Community offers significant potential for boosting trade, and the free movement of people, capital, and goods, while addressing development challenges, especially for landlocked countries. A recent study on the impact of regional integration on inclusive growth found that regional corridor interventions tend to benefit economic welfare and equity. It can drive growth and help reduce poverty, particularly in lower-income nations, by improving trade, investment, finance, and social inclusion. Integration also promotes economic diversification, competitiveness, and regional trade. Attention to filling critical regional infrastructure gaps along with “soft” policy and regulatory reforms can also propel growth.  53 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics In 2019, HoA countries launched the HoA Initiative, recognizing the need for a concerted effort to collectively chart a way forward on regional integration based on recent improvements in interstate relations.7 Leaders of the HoA requested support from the World Bank, African Development Bank, and European Union (EU). The resulting HoA Initiative consists of a US$15 billion package of priorities under four areas: • Development of regional infrastructure networks to cover upgrades to economic corridors, energy, and digital connectivity. • Trade and economic integration for trade facilitation, regional value chains, and improvements in the investment climate. • Resilience building to strengthen pastoral production systems. • Human capital development that focuses on building skills for future employment and empowering women and youth. The HoA Initiative offers opportunities to transform the economies of the region, create and diversify jobs, reduce poverty, conflicts, and inequality, and boost the economic performance of the region. Between 2014–19, growth in the HoA outpaced growth in Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. The region is also strategically important from a digital connectivity perspective, given the number of international submarine cables laid in coastal cities, including in Djibouti, Mogadishu (Somalia), and Mombasa (Kenya). Unfortunately, opportunities to close the development gap at a faster pace have been missed due to the low level of integration and the infrastructure challenges that the HoA Initiative was established to tackle. Interregional trade is considerably below what would be expected based on the economic size and location of the countries. Cross-border trade enhances food security by moving grain and other food items from surplus areas to deficit areas and by increasing the price incentives of production in the areas where efficiency and yields are highest. However, today, it is largely informal and inefficient, due to multiple off-loading and non-tariff barriers to trade in the transport chains. While South Sudan stands to benefit from the HoA Initiative, there are several infrastructural and trade barriers to achieve its full potential. As a full member, South Sudan is engaging with its neighbors to rebuild links to regional and global economies. In the HoA Initiative’s infrastructure pillar, economic corridors that link to ports serving the HoA are a priority. The connectivity provided by the regional corridors has the potential of supporting integration on three different but complementary levels: • Regional integration among countries in the HoA • Integration with global markets • Domestic market integration Despite this potential, due to an absence of institutions, policy, and legal environment, South Sudan is ill prepared to deliver major regional integration. It also lacks shovel-ready projects needed to plan for and implement infrastructure investments. South Sudan formally joined the HoA Initiative in May 2022. 7  54 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics The obvious connections for South Sudan’s export markets and regional reception centers are Sudan, Uganda, and Kenya. The route through Sudan, which for geopolitical considerations is not available, would have been the best, through utilizing the already connected Nile River navigation and railway line from Kosti to Port Sudan. This route should be kept in mind if the situation improves. The routes through Kenya and Uganda are currently the main corridors being utilized. The corridor through Ethiopia and Djibouti will grow in the future, especially as Ethiopia and Djibouti upgrade and invest in this corridor. The short connectivity between Juba and Addis will unlock the whole corridor. Map 4.8 shows possible transport requirements. When addressing regional value chains and the availability of regionally sourced production factors, potential exists in Ethiopia and in developing their fertilizer production. The use of fertilizer from Ethiopia in combination with dolomite possibly sourced south of Juba, would increase resilience, decrease reliance on imports from afar, and lead to more localized economic growth. Map 4.8 Required road connectivity Red SAUDI ARABIA POSSIBLE TRANSPORT REQUIREMENTS: e Nil Sea UPPER NILE TO JUBA VIA THE WATERWAY ERITREA REP. OF Y EM E N WAU TO JUBA VIA ROAD S UDA N JUBA TO BORDERS BY ROAD en BORDERS TO PORTS BY ROAD of Ad DJIBOUTI Gulf CHAD N IG E R IA ETH I OPI A Wau CENT. AF. REP. JUBA AM ERO O N C AMERO S OMA LI A EQ. GUINEA IN DIAN REP. O F D EM. EM . REP. OCEAN CO NGO UGANDA K ENYA G A BO N O F CONG O RWANDA TANZANIA BURUNDI IBRD 48435 | OCTOBER 2024 Source: World Bank. Note: DRC = Democratic Republic of Congo.  55 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 4.7 Impact of conflict and fragility on the prioritization of interventions Armed conflicts destroy bring about the destruction of a country’s physical assets such as— transport The combination of economic infrastructure for one. With widespread prevalence crises, internal civil strife, of insecurity and violence during the two domestic resumption of local conflicts, and conflicts and a civil war, the lack of spending for natural disasters has shifted the key transport infrastructure, alongside increased priorities of the donor community military spending, resulted in dilapidated transport to emergency response rather than infrastructure. Yet, transport infrastructure continues long-term development. to be recognized as a crucial contributor to economic transformation in the country. In post-conflict countries, the recurrence of conflict is a major obstacle to recovery and the attainment of economic development. Many such countries experience peaceful periods that turn out to be only temporary. A World Bank study in 2002 estimated that, on average, conflict-affected countries have a 50 percent risk of experiencing renewed conflict within five years of the original conflict ending. However, a more recent World Bank study estimated that the risk of conflict recurrence was lower—a 23 percent risk of returning to war within four years. As in other post-conflict countries, the drivers of instability and the recurrence of tensions in South Sudan can be traced to unequal or unavailable economic opportunity. Low per capita income, weak economic growth, the presence of socioeconomic horizontal inequalities, and an abundance of high-value natural resources that cause discontent are some of the potentially triggering risk factors of conflict. This is especially true where high unemployment prevails, particularly among the youth. The socioeconomic marginalization of youth has consistently been cited as a key driver of instability, conflict, and violence.  56 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Map 4.9 Map of South Sudan showing conflict hot spots, and proposed transport infrastructure network for intervention Renk Pariang Malakal Tonga Bentiu Nasir Raja Boro Medina Leer Adok Jikao Mayendit Wau Maper Rumbek Pibor Bor CONFLICT INCIDENTS JANUARY 1, 2023– DECEMBER 31, 2023 20 Juba 40 Mogiri Kapoeta 60 Keyala Nadapal 79 Ikotos Kajo Keji IBRD 48436 | OCTOBER 2024 Nimule Source: ACLED. South Sudan also stands out as an example where violence is a constant feature despite conflicting parties having signed a comprehensive peace agreement. Over the past eight years, according to the Global Peace Index (GPI), South Sudan has ranked among the five least-peaceful countries in the world every year. According to the 2023 Fragile States Index (FSI), which measures social, economic, political, and security pressures, the country is the third-most-fragile state in the world after the Republic of Yemen and Somalia. Economic growth in post conflict countries is closely related to the reduced risk of renewed armed conflict. One explanation is that growth stimulates job creation, which reduces grievances and makes armed conflict less attractive to would-be rebels. When the growth rate of post conflict countries remains stagnant over a 10-year period following a civil war, there is a higher risk (over 40 percent) of conflict recurring. Despite gains made in resolving large-scale conflicts, and despite signs that the warring factions are not prepared to return to full-scale war, South Sudan remains a fragile country. Several conflict hotspots spread across the country remain elevated (see Map 4.9). The unified forces  57 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics lack institutional capacity and security, governance, and economic reforms have been largely unsuccessful. Elite capture of resources and recurrent conflicts continue to hinder the country in its march toward development and economic recovery. Finding pathways to promote growth and development calls for realigning the interests of the political elites. Although the concept is not specific to transport infrastructure investment, it is generally accepted that the existence of conflicts and their causes influence post-conflict priorities. The combination of economic crises, internal civil strife, resumption of local conflicts, and natural disasters has shifted the priorities of the donor community to emergency response rather than long-term development. The World Food Program (WFP), a long-term supporter of the transport sector in South Sudan, changed its focus to invest in transport infrastructure that creates access to areas in need of humanitarian assistance. JICA has suspended work twice at the now-completed Freedom Bridge and has only recently restarted its investment into infrastructure and capacity building in Juba. Through support from the EU delegation, the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) has been investing in transport infrastructure projects in densely populated areas and agriculturally productive regions of the country that also exhibit relative calm. Meanwhile, USAID temporarily stopped support of large-scale projects in the transport sector and in 2018, due to insecurity, the World Bank canceled construction of the Juba-Torit-Kapoeta-Nadapal road. It is increasingly evident that a continued delay in reengaging the transport sector will only upset South Sudan’s efforts toward economic recovery and development. The country has enormous economic potential in non-oil sectors such as agriculture, fisheries, and value-added mining. Diversifying the economy by supporting productive activities is key to unlocking the potential of these critical sectors. This can be done by restoring security, efficiently managing and leveraging the available natural resources, and closing the huge infrastructure gap of which transport infrastructure forms a significant component. Investing in the agricultural sector is a low effort action with a big reward toward recovery, development, and economic transformation. The country benefits from abundant land and water, and a favorable growing environment for crop farming, horticulture, fruits, and vegetables that could supply domestic demand and be exported to regional and global markets. The 2023 South Sudan Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) outlined the following priority policies and programs aimed at initiating the transformation of the sector: • Investing in rural and regional roads. • Initiating the process of regional integration by focusing on the delivery of agricultural goods to regional markets. Considering the limited resources and competing priorities in post-conflict areas, investing in the right transport infrastructure projects goes a long way toward contributing to economic transformation. Investments enable the promotion of activities of private and public sector development partners alike. Given the fragile power-sharing arrangement of the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan, the increased engagement of the private sector, as both actor and funder, can play a pivotal role in promoting stability and sustainable peace.  58 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Regional geopolitics has considerable influence on the timing of interventions in the transport sector. This is especially the case considering the ongoing conflict in Sudan, which has the potential to produce catastrophic consequences should the delivery of crude oil be disrupted due to damages to pipelines or a rapid influx of returnees and refugees. Growing donor fatigue is another emerging issue that carries significant risk. To offset these risks, the management of oil export revenues needs improvement. Without investing in a robust transport network, and repairing the existing dilapidated transport infrastructure, South Sudan’s path toward socioeconomic transformation and development will continue to pose a daunting challenge. 4.8 Planning for unprecedented flooding and extreme heat in the face of climate change Climate change impacts fragile economies much more than mature and developed ones. South Sudan has been adversely affected by extreme flooding and drought. These conditions have had a disproportionate impact on the transport system as level terrain means that several sizable areas are submerged for extended periods. A combination of data from the Global Surface Water Explorer Data from the European Commission’s Joint Research Center (JRC) and OpenStreetMap data that determines the spatial location of seasonal water and its proximity to roads, indicated that significant parts of the road network were progressively affected by flooding. The analysis shows that in 2013 and 2015, South Sudan experienced above-average seasonal water impact. The average length of roads affected by seasonal water was 5,110 m. In 2010-18, there was a drastic increase in roads affected by seasonal water, and during the period 2020-21, this trend worsened. In 2021, the largest segment of road affected by seasonal water more than doubled from 1,288 m last recorded in 2013 and 2014 to 2,617 m. The majority of roads affected are close to the White Nile and in the northwest of the country, to the south of Abyei. Figure 4.5 Hinterland of key corridors damaged by flooding 70,000 60,000 50,000 M t rs 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Ministry of Water Resources.  59 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Figure 4.6 Length of roads severely damaged by flooding 1,200 1,000 800 m nts 600 S 400 200 - 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Ministry of Water Resources. The increasing incidence of flooding and extreme drought suggests that climate change impacts need to take the foreground in the planning process. There is especially a need to investigate and apply new methods such as nature-based solutions and climate-smart agricultural practices. 4.9 Closing the institutional gap Though complementarity exists with other institutions, the main institutions with a direct mandate Institutional fragmentation requires for transport infrastructure are the Ministry of the urgent attention of policy Transportation (MoT) and Ministry of Roads and makers. The functions that have Bridges (MRB). At one point, these two ministries morphed into non-sector ministries were a singular entity, but the need to create political need to be reclaimed. The conditions space and ensure representation of all parties in the for stronger economic and social development can be created if government necessitated the current fragmentation. transport infrastructure projects are improved, or new transport The South Sudan Roads Authority (SSRA), formed by infrastructure projects incorporating law, operates under the MRB with responsibility for the primary institutions’ mandates the management, development, rehabilitation, and are developed. maintenance of all interstate and international roads in South Sudan. Road development in war-affected areas is directed by the minister. Currently, the South Sudan Civil Aviation Authority (SCAA), working under the MoT, manages air transport affairs. The Directorate of Railways is part of the MoT with a mandate for the railway sector. The main gap in the sector institutions is to clarify roles and responsibilities as these have become muddled and therefore affect responsibilities and accountabilities.  60 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics In addition to the two main ministries, other institutions in the government play supporting roles in helping the two primary institutions discharge their mandates. These include the Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of East African Affairs, Ministry of Trade and Industry, National Revenue Authority, and the South Sudan Chamber of Commerce Industry and Agriculture. Any reforms should clarify that these institutions have no place delivering transport infrastructure and services. Ministry of Transport In September 2011, the original Ministry of Transport and Roads was separated into the MoT and the MRB. The MoT was formed with a vision to provide safe, reliable, effective, efficient, and fully integrated transport operations and infrastructure. Its aim is to meet the needs of freight and passengers by improving levels of service and cost in a way that supports government strategies for economic and social development, while being environmentally, socially, and economically sustainable. This vision was based on the pillars of national policy imperatives, customer imperatives, and investment criteria goals. In discharging its functions following formation, the MoT faced several challenges: • Inadequate management capacity and institutional structures • Financial limitation from budget allocations and donor funds • Inadequate legislative framework • Management of high expectations To achieve the vision, six directorates were proposed as part of the institutional structure: • Directorate of Road Transport and Safety • Directorate of River Transport • Directorate of Railway Transport • Directorate of Administration and Finance • Directorate of Air Transport (proposed) • Directorate of Planning and Research The transition of the MoT to a fully functional entity faced several challenges. The absence of comprehensive, sector wide transportation policies, strategies, and appropriate laws and regulations complicated matters for the nascent ministry. Though a transport sector policy was developed for the period 2007-11, little attention was paid to its implementation. Given the relevance of the policies and the strategic priorities/interventions in the policy, on July 8, 2017, the MoT undertook a revision after consultations from key stakeholders, but the effort was not completed. The ministry recently started a process to hire a consulting firm to review the transport sector policy. Finally, after the selection process, a firm was hired to undertake the review and address any existing policy gaps.  61 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Ministry of Roads and Bridges Following the split in 2011, the MRB was structured around six directorates: • Directorate of Roads and Bridges • Directorate of Administration and Finance • Directorate of Materials and Research • Directorate of Human Resource (Establishment) • Directorate of Information Technology • Directorate of Planning and Policy Formulation The newly formed ministry was mandated to develop and maintain the network of roads and bridges. Through the coordination and management of activities at the ministry, it was also to ensure the efficient and safe presence of road services in all states of the Republic of South Sudan. After formation, the ministry faced several challenges including: • Inadequate management capacity • Financial limitation from budget allocations and donor funds • Inadequate legislative framework • Problems of insecurity and roads heavily contaminated with mines (which translated into high initial investment costs) • Unrealistic expectations from the public and elected officials In response to the challenges, the MRB initiated reforms necessary for effective road development and management. These included the establishment of the SSRA in 2011. Along with defined goals, the organization committed to restructuring its internal operating structures into: • Planning and policy formulation • Roads and bridges • Materials and research • Administration and finance This initiative aimed to transform the ministry into a full-fledged institution responsible for the infrastructure and maintenance of roads and bridges. The goal was to improve service delivery, interagency coordination, and the development of road infrastructure. However, the implementation of the transformation initiative stalled due to an absence of leadership and lack of will to execute the plan. As a result, there are redundancies in roles between government institutions, leading to confusion about roles and mandates. This continues to affect the functionality of this ministry despite the presence of a policy framework.  62 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics South Sudan Road Authority Since its formation, the SSRA has not been fully functional due to capacity issues, lack of adequate funding, and several corporate governance shortfalls. To date, the MRB continues to undertake responsibilities under the SSRA umbrella, indicating a communication and coordination gap between the two institutions. Further stated in the MRB’s November 2012 Policy Framework, the institution would not undertake major design, construction, or maintenance projects, but would instead contract private sector firms to do the work under its supervision.8 It was stipulated that the institution would be led by an executive director recommended by a board of directors, and the authority was supposed to be supervised by the board of directors under the overall supervision of the minister of roads and bridges. According to the act of its formation, the tenure of the executive director, though renewable, was supposed to be three years. This provision, which also included the tenure and composition of the board of directors (not reviewed since 2011) has been ignored and the current leadership has been in office for more than 10 years. The key reform would therefore be to implement corporate governance and regulatory requirements that exist. South Sudan Civil Aviation Authority (SSCAA) South Sudan has been a member of the ICAO since November 10, 2011, and its civil aviation falls under the authority of the MoT. In 2013, the SSCAA was established, and the aim of this statutory authority was to formally oversee and regulate the country’s aviation industry, airline companies, and operations. South Sudan’s JIA is currently the only airport receiving flights from international commercial airline carriers. The other major airports include Wau, Malakal, and Rumbek. The SSCAA is grappling with a host of issues: • Inadequate policy, institutional, and regulatory frameworks • Lack of resources and a need for capacity building • Aging infrastructure requiring repair and investment to expand capacity to serve an increase in traffic at JIA, and no funds available to properly plan an investment program • An inadequate level and quality of services for airlines and passengers at JIA, and not enough resources in the SSCAA to improve the situation JIA has yet to be audited for safety and security oversight by the ICAO. The CAA is under pressure by technical regulators and other airlines that want to use South Sudan’s airspace. The South Sudan Civil Aviation Authority’s efficiency can be improved through the separation of policy making, technical regulation, operations, and accident investigation. The lack of human and financial resources can be addressed through concessions, public-private partnership, and management contracting of the operations. Consultants and contractors. 8  63 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Overlapping mandates The prevalence of formal and informal overlaps in institutional mandates in the transport sector creates an atmosphere of competition between institutions that are supposed to coordinate the discharge of their duties. This poses risks of conflicts between peers and sends the wrong message to development partners. During a Northern Corridor Transit and Transport Coordination Authority (NCTTCA) launch of a report on rapid transport sector needs in October 2022, it was noted that the issue of overlapping responsibilities stifles independent operation of the affected institutions. During the event, sector heads from the primary institutions agreed to address the misalignment. It remains to be seen when action will be taken. Policy making and project conception of transport infrastructure The lack of coordinated action between ministries and institutions in the transport sector has caused a failure to attend to basic issues. This affects operationalization and negatively impacts the efficiency of a transport sector needed to boost trade, connectivity, and economic activities in South Sudan. For example, the Ministry of Interior (MoI), through the Department of Traffic Police Administration, continues to infringe on the policy-making role of the Road Transport and Safety that housed traffic management in the MoT. Current trends indicate that the MRB continues to play a policy-making role, but also gets involved in the infrastructure project implementation role supposed to be handled by the SSRA, thus rendering SSRA virtually without any activity to execute. The impact is seen in operational inefficiencies and low retention of technical personnel. To date, overlap in the roles of the MRB and MoT persists. The redundancy at the SSRA has led to MRB assuming project implementation roles rather than sticking to policy and regulatory roles. There have also been transfers of technical personnel outside of procedure from the SSRA to the Project Management Unit at the ministry, further stifling the ability of the SSRA to implement its plans. Many agencies, intending to engage with the SSRA, have been driven away due to poor technical capacity. This lack of capacity has, however, been caused by the parent ministry’s actions and inactions as they relate to the SSRA. Planning, identification, and selection of transport infrastructure The MRB and MoT have been leading the planning, identification, and selection of road transport infrastructure initiatives. These functions in the road transport subsector are critical and should be based on both the level of socioeconomic benefits and the requirements of sustainable development. However, the planning, identification, and selection of transport infrastructure investments has remained the responsibility of the two ministries in the sector as enshrined in the existing legal framework. Implementing agencies like the SSRA and SSCAA are assigned roles when necessary. However, the relevant ministries sometimes lack control due to external influences, unsolicited proposals, and inconsistent project prioritization and execution. To address this, a pragmatic approach should be emphasized. This approach would focus on prioritizing infrastructure investment through systematic planning, identification, and selection. This is especially important given South Sudan’s ongoing recovery from past civil wars and natural disasters.  64 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Table 4.1 Other Institutions with roles in the transport sector Role in transport Financing, engineering, and and selection of transport maintenance of transport Policy making and project preparation of transport Planning, identification, conception of transport Regulation of transport Design, procurement, construction, and infrastructure infrastructure infrastructure infrastructure infrastructure Core mandate Institution Ministry of Coordinates the Yes. Consults Yes. Consults No No No East African participation of the and participates on the Affairs respective governments, in deliberations selection citizens, businesses, and on the priorities of regional other stakeholders in for the regional corridor the implementation of corridor projects, to the regional integration align efforts agenda, programs, and projects to improve the movement of trade, people, and goods. The aim is to improve investments, cohesion, and wealth, and ensure a peaceful coexistence Ministry of Facilitates the Yes. Consults on Yes. Consults No No No Trade and advancement of trade aspects of trade on different Industry between South Sudan facilitation components and the rest of the world of trade facilitation Ministry of Manages policy, legal, Yes. Reviews and No No No No Justice and legislative issues sanctions bills in all government and draft policies institutions National The core businesses of No Yes. Consults No No No Revenue the authority include on different Authority revenue collection, components trade facilitation, and of border border control control South Sudan Represents and No No Yes. Can play No No Chamber of advocates for the a leading role Commerce, private sector. Helps in financing Industry, and development partners public-private Agriculture understand and obtain partnerships correct information about the private sector Source: World Bank.  65 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics An agenda for sector and institutional reform Institutional fragmentation requires the urgent attention of policy makers. The functions that have morphed into non-sector ministries need to be reclaimed. Social and economic development will significantly benefit if the MRB, MoT, CAA, and SSRA are improved and strengthened. South Sudan will also benefit from greater public–private coordination via up-to-date regulatory frameworks that balance planning, appraisal, capacity, and investment maturity. The conditions for stronger economic and social development can be created if transport infrastructure projects are improved, or new transport infrastructure projects incorporating the primary institutions’ mandates are developed.9 Given the time elapsed since independence and considering developments in the transport sector institutions, making this a reality will take time. Despite this, development partners should continue to support efforts that address policy and framework deficiencies, aiming to streamline operations within institutions that influence the transport infrastructure sector. To support meaningful efforts, the Government of South Sudan would need to develop a fresh master plan for the sector. Although the focus has not been on this area, it is crucial for the ministries, departments, and agencies concerned with transport infrastructure to perform effectively. The original masterplan was initially conceived in 2011 but has not been operationalized. Moreover, the demographics and economic structure has changed significantly since independence in unnatural human settlement patterns. It would also be worthwhile to address governance challenges in the road sector by preparing a Governance Assessment and Action Plan (GAAP). The GAAP can draw on best practices for public investment management, transparent and competitive procurement, robust financial management and financial audits, quality assurance, technical audits, due attention to environmental and social safeguards, value-for-money, and setting up of reporting and complaint mechanisms. 4.10 Funding and financing efforts to close the infrastructure gap Government financing Governments can fund public infrastructure through tax revenues, sovereign loans or bonds (to be paid for by taxpayer revenues over time), or user fees. All these options are relatively restricted and insufficient to address the country’s huge infrastructure in the short term. Estimates are that South Sudan needs US$7–9 billion just to bring the state of the transport infrastructure to the level seen in neighboring countries. Analysis of revenues and expenditures show that the government of South Sudan has prioritized infrastructure among several competing demands. Nonetheless, a large share of the funding for transport infrastructure investments in South Sudan has been obtained from the public sector, especially government budgets. This involves direct government investments from its budget, domestic borrowing, external borrowing, and donor grants. The MoT, MRB, SSRA, and SSCAA. 9  66 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics This is in line with global trends. The United Nations’ Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific has estimated that among the countries with special needs,10 65 percent of the infrastructure projects are funded by government budgets, 15 percent are private sector funded, 10 percent are financed by loans and credits from multilateral development banks, and the remaining 10 percent are financed through official development assistance. As much as the public funding of transport infrastructure projects allows governments to maintain control over assets, the resource limitations and competing priorities suggest that the approach may not be sustainable, especially in the context of being a landlocked developing country. Figure 4.7 Revenue and expenditure patterns 1,500 1,000 500 Billions SSP - -500 -1,000 -1,500 -2,000 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24 R v nu S curit Soci l nd Hum nit ri n Aff irs Educ tion Account bilit Economic Functions H lth Public Administr tion Rul of L w Infr structur N tur l R sourc s nd Rur l D v lopm nt Source: Ministry of Finance. Note: SSP = South Sudanese pound. 10 This includes landlocked developing countries, small island developing states, and least-developed countries.  67 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Figure 4.8 Sector expenditure patterns 18,00,00,00,00,000 16,00,00,00,00,000 14,00,00,00,00,000 South Sud n s Punds (SSP) 12,00,00,00,00,000 10,00,00,00,00,000 8,00,00,00,00,000 6,00,00,00,00,000 4,00,00,00,00,000 2,00,00,00,00,000 - 2018—19 2019—20 2020—21 2021—22 2022—23 Tr nsf rs nd Oth r S curit Soci l nd Hum nit ri n Aff irs Educ tion Account bilit Economic Functions H lth Public Administr tion Rul of L w Infr structur N tur l R sourc s nd Rur l D v lopm nt Source: World Bank 2023. South Sudan’s revenues are not sufficient to fund significant infrastructure needs, and the funding reserved for infrastructure has not been consistent. Total revenues in 2023 amounted to ~US 4 billion of which approximately 10 percent was used to cover capital expenditures. Spending on infrastructure, and spending specifically earmarked for transport, has been high in some years but also extremely low in others. Funding the gap has hence been difficult. As shown in Figure 4.9, in 2019-20, spending on infrastructure in general reached 26 percent of the total budget, but declined to less than 5 percent the next year. Compared with other countries in the region, this is low and would not help address the deficit meaningfully.  68 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Figure 4.9 Spending on infrastructure as share of total government budget between 2006 and 2023 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 07 08 09 20 1... 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 20 20 21 1 20 22 23 06 10 20 2 — — — — — — — — — — 20 — 1 20 — — 20 20 20 20 16 11 13 12 17 20 14 14 15 18 22 19 Source: Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning. The fiscal space to allocate resources for public-led investments is constrained. In 2016, government debt reached 87.6 percent of the GDP, due to a sharp decline in government revenue and the expansionary fiscal policies in place since 2012. Subsequently, the government adopted the Economic Recovery Program, supported by an international aid framework, to ease pressure on its external position and stabilize debt levels. COVID-19’s impact reversed some of these gains. Continued fiscal conservatism can be expected in future years, leaving limited possibility to fund public infrastructure investments through debt financing. South Sudan’s focus on achieving universal access to transport infrastructure through government efforts, despite limited resources, has led to excessive spending on too many projects with low economic returns, offering little benefit for industrial growth or job creation. Since before and after independence, South Sudan has aimed to use scarce resources for maximum economic and social returns from transport investments. After the 2005 peace agreement, much of the government’s funds were spent on maintaining and building transport infrastructure. From 2009 to 2011, the government spent about $165 million annually on roads and related projects. These efforts brought progress toward better domestic connectivity, but internal conflicts caused competing priorities that halted ongoing projects and led to neglect of existing infrastructure. This situation was worsened by governance issues and inconsistent administrative procedures. In February 2022, when the MRB 2022–26 Road Maintenance Strategy was rolled out, the budgetary allocation for road maintenance activities was increased. That amount, equivalent to US$200.3 million per annum, was divided between fiscal year (FY) 2022–23 and FY2023–24. It was meant to elevate the road network’s condition to a point where it could be maintained.  69 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics An additional US$216.14 million was projected for spending on routine maintenance over three years. The financing is expected to be funded majorly by government fiscal allocation, even though other funding sources are mentioned as contributors to the budgets. The planning process considered the uncertainties and unpredictability of the country’s fiscal resources. This is a clear indication that despite good plans, the government fails to stand up to the test and ensure the delivery of desired goals. However, through the on-going “oil for infrastructure” policy, the focus appears to be on upgrading major trunk roads to paved standards. Such initiatives, accompanied by obvious challenges, lead to tremendous losses of government revenues due to weak systems, evident political interference, and intimidation. Applying better project designs, better processes for feasibility studies, and improved project selection can help save billions of dollars. Alternative financing and funding sources   Support from development partners Prior to and following independence, development partners stood with and continued to support South Sudan through investments in transport infrastructure projects. Following the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, a Multi-Donor Trust Fund for South Sudan (MDTF-SS) was established. Several transport infrastructure projects benefitted from the MDTF-SS. Among them was the remodeling of the only railway line in South Sudan. The MDTF-SS11 aside, donors—most notably JICA, the European Union, USAID, and the World Bank Group—invested in critical transport infrastructure projects, which include the upgrade of the Juba Nimule Road to paved standards, the construction of the Freedom Bridge over the Nile, and the maintenance and rehabilitation of selected trunk and feeder roads across the country. Over 2009–11, donors contributed about US$85 million annually to road programs.   Public-private partnerships and user fees in transport Conventional public-private partnerships (PPPs) for user-paid tolls are unlikely to be successful in South Sudan in the short to medium term. In developing a PPP framework, the first steps are developing government policies and priorities and then defining the objectives for the PPP program. The objectives will help inform the formulation of the processes, decision criteria, and the institutional responsibilities. They can include increasing financing options, improving accountability and simulating growth, and harnessing the private sector’s innovation and efficiency. There are possible areas for PPP trials in South Sudan such as the bridges or road transport sector in urban areas, especially in Juba. However, given the environment of South Sudan, trials could result in rejection at a time when social cohesion is critical. There are lessons to learn from similar projects to meet urban public transport needs—projects for decongesting cities, reducing travel time, and securing funds for operating and maintaining existing transport infrastructure. At closure at the end of June 2013, the total receipts for the MDTF-SS stood at US$728 million, of which Geoscience and Remote 11 Sensing Society (GRSS) contributed 25 percent.  70 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics One starting point could be at the entry point where local government authorities and commuter operator unions collect tolls and fees at specific stations and locations. This mechanism could be consolidated and improved to begin with tolls on public transport, commercial trucks, and private cars that use specific routes. The challenge is controlling and ensuring compliance. A case in point is how to improve the toll plazas’ entry points. At the JIA, more can be done to improve toll plazas’ gates and the payment method, and charges could be introduced gradually.   Leveraging mining assets The mining sector, which represents over 99 percent of export revenues, still needs reform to become an engine for economic transformation. The World Bank’s Country Economic Memorandum observes that on a cumulative basis, compared with its revenues from the mining sector, the government has had negligible net savings. Revenues have either been used for immediate consumption or for discrete investments. The “oil for roads” program is the main mechanism to direct funds from oil extraction to finance roads. Although a state equity approach to mining promises a share of mineral resource rents for the country’s benefit, such investment faces the same level of risk and uncertainty as faced by anyone investing in the sector. Risks are highest early on when large capital investments have to be made and returns only materialize much later. If an investor has low financing costs and a tolerance for a long payback period, perhaps hedged by a wide portfolio of projects at different stages of maturity, then mining can be a worthwhile investment. Otherwise, it can turn out to be a poor way to use scarce financial resources. The government should explore ways to optimally utilize scarce public financial resources and assess the value for money. The fact that South Sudan has yet to see sufficient returns on its mining-related equity investments does not justify prioritizing the sector over alternative ways to utilize public funds, for example, for human development and public infrastructure. Any such assessment of the policy will have to consider alternative models for developing the mining sector that rely less on public funding. The region has several examples that South Sudan’s government should examine, and develop a path customized for the country’s unique context. A thorough evaluation of why approaches faced challenges and how private capital mobilization could be approached in the future would be beneficial. 5 Connectivity for growth: The ingredients for an ambitious agenda South Sudan has struggled from weak policy and misaligned development in the transportation sector, leading to scattered and ineffective results. This chapter aims to detail the key areas that the nation, its policymakers, and people must focus on for growth and development in the long-term.  72 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 5.1 Prioritizing domestic and regional connectivity to anchor key value chains Key messages Policy-makers should channel resources to benefit sorghum, fish, and maize value chains. South Sudan should develop road and river navigation corridors within the context of end-to-end value chains. The private and public sectors should work together while concentrating scarce donor funds. South Sudan can target the ‘oil for roads’ transport sector provision at selected corridors. The prioritization and development process must factor in both conflict prevalence and increased flooding due to climate change. South Sudan should focus on 3 main corridor belts that connect key agricultural value chains when selecting infrastructure priorities for domestic and regional connectivity. The government should target infrastructure constraints specific to these value chains and associated corridors. Strategic investments will lower costs and enhance competitiveness for sorghum, fish, maize and, to some extent, livestock. This approach will enable South Sudan to meet its food security requirements while accessing regional and global markets. South Sudan’s untapped value chains, largely due to the lack of transport infrastructure, has stifled economic growth. that must be tapped into the benefit the economy and boost growth. Recommendation The government should focus on developing the following infastructure: Domestic Roads • Wau-Raja-Boro-Medina road (360km) • Juba-Kajo-keji-Jale road (180km) • Rumbek-Maper-Mayendit road (245km) • Adok-Leer-Bentiu road (230km) • Bor-Pibor road (230km) • Ikotos-Kiyala-Mogiri road (260km) • Bentiu-Pariang-Tonga-Malakal road (243km) Regional Corridors • Juba-Torit-Kapoeta-Nadapal road (360km) • Juba-Renk river transportation • Juba-Nimule road (193km) • Malakal-Nasir-Jikao road (350km)  73 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics These roads are responsible for 80 percent of domestic agriculture and connectivity to the seaports of Djibouti, Mombasa, Sudan and Lamu. Instead of projects being proposed on an ad-hoc basis, the medium-term and subsequent annual plans should be focused on increasing connectivity for key value chains. This does not mean that other roads and transport modes should be neglected. The main argument here is that these corridors should be proiritized as anchors for meaningful strategic connectivity and economic growth. 5.2 Important sector reforms Key messages Weak policies, insufficient legislation, and inadequate regulation perpetuate poor governance throughout the transport sector. The sector fails to account properly for service delivery to users. Instead of updating the 2007 South Sudan Transport Sector Policy, the government should take a fresh look at the sector to reimagine reforms that will accelerate economic growth. A business-as-usual sector-based agenda will not achieve the desired transformation if it excludes social cohesion and economic growth aspirations. The government should reconsider whether separating the Ministry of Transport from the Ministry of Roads and Bridges effectively steers the sector. The government should now establish a fully functional river navigation authority. While South Sudan established the Roads Authority and Road Fund with noble intentions and aligned their legislative and regulatory foundations with best practices, these institutions need new momentum to implement their mandates effectively. Lack of proper governance has crippled South Sudan’s transport sector, and will continue to do so if policies are not benefit-based, structured and implemented on an end-to-end basis. Good governance is key to anchoring economic reforms and modernizing institutions. An important first step is to identify the issues that need to be addressed, prioritize them, and design effective interventions. The impact of SSTSP 2017–22 and the policy framework for the MRB formulated in November 2012 has been muted. Although institutions handling transport sector issues existed before and after independence, the lack of a legal and regulatory framework have hindered results. According to the report prepared by the Northern Corridor Transit and Transport Coordination Authority in October 2022, a common response of the stakeholders was that the absence of an effective transport sector policy in South Sudan was the greatest obstacle to establishing functionally aligned ministries and institutions responsible for transport. A fresh sector outlook must be prepared, which accounts for new political, economic, social, and environmental realities. The government is investing in several transport infrastructure projects through the “oil for infrastructure” policy. An evaluation of these projects reflects huge financial investments, which will not affect the country’s economy greatly given project selection criteria and implementation arrangements.  74 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Strategic priorities for allocating scarce resources should be based on a clear understanding of each project’s potential to drive growth and reduce social costs. Infrastructure investment decisions should focus on building new transport links, upgrading existing ones, and improving technology and services. Policies guiding these investments significantly impact the supply of goods and services both locally and regionally. Given increasing financing constraints, governments need to use evaluation methods for project appraisals to ensure resources are allocated efficiently, maximizing social benefits. Although an SSTSP has been in place since 2007, the country’s development has outpaced the policy’s original goals, and its implementation has been slow. The SSTSP 2017–22 was meant to be the starting point for developing sector plans, investment strategies, and the Transport Master Plan 2012–30. However, the special election for an annual transport policy review forum, where decision-makers and stakeholders could share input with the Ministry of Transport, has not occurred. The transport sector still suffers from misaligned responsibilities and a lack of coordination. While the government acknowledges the negative impacts of this inefficiency, it asserts that the 2017–22 Transport Sector Policy provides clear guidelines to support economic growth. Without addressing these issues, South Sudan will continue to miss out on the benefits of well-established transport policies. Recommendation 1. Reconsider the separation of the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Roads and Bridges. Rather than update the 2007 South Sudan Transport Sector Policy, undertake a sector-wide institutional review to determine how policy making, regulatory, and implementation roles are structured for a more consolidated sector governance. 2. Accelerate the formation of a full-fledged river navigation authority such as the River Transport Authority.  75 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 5.3 Improving the intersection between investments and institutions Key messages The lack of a well-developed project pipeline constrains transport infrastructure development in South Sudan, while poor implementation quality hampers the country’s transition from humanitarian aid to growth-led development. Imperfect and cumbersome processes plague the project cycle, though implementing authorities could deliver sound projects in the short and medium term if they improved their project management practices. When different actors pursue conflicting agendas, fragmented governance complicates even technically simple projects. Political pressures intensify when projects face preparation difficulties, which in turn drives poor project management throughout the cycle. Most transport projects are initiated from the top down, with little connection between the investment rationale and institutional delivery. The process for selecting and scoping projects appears arbitrary, leading to implementation challenges even when financing is available. Examples like the Juba urban road projects and the Akon International Airport project highlight issues, such as inadequate preparatory activities and unclear selection criteria. A clear process and rationale for selecting projects is crucial, especially when available financing falls short of needs. Ideally, projects should follow a structured life-cycle process, including initiation, planning, execution, monitoring, and closure. However, most national infrastructure projects lack such structure. While the MRB, MoT, and South Sudan Road Authority are tasked with key roles, other ministries and entities are also involved. The key missing element is a formal process to enhance decision-making for critical infrastructure projects. Recommendation 1. Create a central unit, led by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning (MoFEP), composed of representatives from various infrastructure ministries. They will ensure coordination, planning, and spending of critical transport infrastructure projects. A small number of experienced staff could play coordinating and steering roles in different parts of government with ultimate approvals being the responsibility of the MoFEP. The guidelines could also inform assignment of the right staff to important projects. 2. Aim funding at a few key projects linked to fish, sorghum, maize, and to a lesser extent, livestock value chains. Start with the technical preparation of selected domestic corridors.  76 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 5.4 A plan to build supply chain capacity Key messages South Sudan’s transport sector needs targeted capacity-building efforts that strengthen institutions, personnel, and systems across both private and public sectors. Organizations can implement these improvements immediately, gradually, or over the long term. The government should develop a holistic approach to capacity building that integrates public and private sectors with academic and vocational institutions. Current piecemeal approaches fail to support long-term infrastructure development goals. The government must also pay attention to emerging areas like river navigation. Sustainable human resource development in the transport sector can be achieved through collaboration with academic institutions and sector organizations, starting with a needs assessment of institutions, systems, personnel, and guidelines. It is essential to ensure that recommendations are implemented and that there is ongoing engagement with the government to keep these issues prioritized. This approach will help build a skilled workforce to address the transport sector’s human resource challenges, contributing to economic growth, poverty reduction, good governance, stability, and security. There are near- and long-term gains that can be realized by supporting and working with the engineering regulatory body, the Engineering Council of South Sudan (ECOSS), and professional and discipline-based entities such as the Civil Engineers Society of South Sudan, and the National Association of Consulting Engineers and Architects of South Sudan. This could include government institutions and parastatals. The support can be: • Investing in capital such as the establishment of an office that deals with record keeping and information access for the public and specialized institutions. This can include archives, databases, and website development. Currently ECOSS does not have a website. • Supporting professional practitioners with office facilities for meetings and training programs. • Training in areas of management and curriculum development with updates and monitoring in the short-term. • Establishing a transport materials lab at the University of Juba with knowledge transfer inherent to the arrangement. • Reviewing the curriculum at the University of Juba to incorporate aspects of transportation that are on par with current trends and issues. • Supporting national and state governments by assigning technical assistants who will lead studies and assessments. This will culminate in prioritizing the national and state transport corridors. This should include estimated costs for design and construction. • Revising the South Sudan Design Manual and technical specifications for all categories of roads. This will include road classification criteria currently categorized in three documents— the Southern Sudan Engineering Act 2011, Southern Sudan Design Specification, and the Low Volume Road Design Manual.  77 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics • Encouraging mentorship programs in government- and donor-funded projects as entry points for knowledge transfer. This can be monitored by the ECOSS and other professional bodies by assigning senior professionals to guide professional development and act as formal mentors or sponsors. • Producing maps and a database of the South Sudan road network at the national, state, and local government levels with the relevant nomenclature. Such maps will contribute to planning for urban areas such as Juba City. Medium- and long-term capacity building should include: • Establishing a transportation studies curriculum at the University of Juba in the School of Engineering. This will require seconding experts and visiting or adjunct professors in the initial stages. • Setting up a transport research and laboratory center that will be an innovation hub for knowledge, generation, interchange, and exchange between academia and field practitioners in the transportation industry. • Opening a vocational training school, which will further support blue-collar skilled-labor jobs and skills creation. • Starting a scholarship fund for postgraduate studies in transportation-related studies. • Supporting the government, both at the national and state levels, to develop the internal capacity to manage transport projects’ priorities, implementation, and execution. • Conducting needs assessments and revitalize the South Sudan Road Authority to take charge of its legal mandate. • Assisting the setup of a river and ports authority to manage the elements of the river transportation system. Recommendation 1. Conduct a nation-wide review of skills required. Focus on academic, professional, and vocational institutions. 2. All government- and donor-funded projects should have a learn-by-doing element.  78 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics 5.5 Funding and aligning development financing Key messages Decades of neglect and haphazard implementation have left the transport system struggling to deliver meaningful results. Government and donor funding is insufficient. Moving forward, South Sudan must prioritize and focus on key investment projects. While improving the transport sector will take decades, it is crucial to lay the foundation now by financing technical preparatory studies. Systemic planning is the first step to addressing the huge funding gap that exists. The absence of a plan detailing how to operationalize the “oil for roads” project has led to scope creep. Initiatives have been haphazardly implemented and new road sections are being added without considering the greatest impacts. There is a need to refine the purpose of the “oil for roads” program, and perhaps all government-funded transport infrastructure projects, by defining the economic objective for each project. South Sudan’s road transport system requires significant investment for both development and maintenance after years of neglect. The sector’s funding situation is critical, with government contributions being insufficient and projects often funded without strategic planning. To develop cost-effective and sustainable transport infrastructure, a pragmatic approach should prioritize investment through careful planning and identification. Additionally, it is essential to review existing frameworks and introduce new legal structures that improve transport asset management and strengthen the regulatory functions of relevant institutions. Many development partners have supported the road sector for years through a coordinated mechanism, the infrastructure sector working group. However, in recent years, the effectiveness of partner support has dwindled, partly due to the breakdown of the working group, which was a means for partners to engage with one another and the government. Most of the meetings were done on an ad hoc basis and some on an individual basis. Yet, having this coordinated mechanism helps partners align their support with the plans of sector institutions. Through these means, past achievements can be considered and inform a way forward to address existing gaps in the sector. Such a mechanism will act as a forum to leverage support and discuss relevant issues on project design and implementation. Transportation requires studies that map in detail the locations of a variety of natural resources and agricultural produce. This mapping can create profitable connections by linking areas of sufficiency to areas of insufficiency. This will ultimately contribute to recovery, resilience, and economic growth. The limited resources available for funding transportation infrastructure for the whole country require a unity of purpose. Most donor funding is to connect farmers to markets, improve livelihoods, enhance community recovery and resilience, and deliver essential humanitarian aid. Donor engagement with the government will help determine the definition of the “oil for roads” initiative. It will allow donor-funded projects to be planned with an awareness of government infrastructure projects and vice versa. That way, it will be easy for a donor-funded feeder road to directly connect to a government-implemented trunk road or state road, thus enhancing the road network’s integrity.  79 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Recommendation 1. Align development finance interventions around key value chains and use the funding to insulate projects from political interference. 2. Package projects in the appropriate size and budget to attract sufficient attention and support from policy makers and non-traditional partners. 3. Establish and operate a formal coordination mechanism, bringing together the government and development partners. They can leverage support and discuss issues relevant to project design and implementation. Appendix Freight flow methodology  81 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Overview The South Sudan freight flow model was developed to have a standardized set of outputs, while using inputs of different levels of granularity to quantify the country’s logistics challenges. For each combination of commodity and mode, a standardized modelling approach, which is comparable to the first three steps of a four-step model, is used. This methodology also allows for the direct use and incorporation of known origin-destination movements into the final output. The outputs quantify the movement of all freight movements within the country. The supply and demand for each commodity is researched and spatially disaggregated to the same granularity as seen in Figure A1. For South Sudan, the supply and demand are constructed at a county level, which is called ‘adm2’ in the Global Administrative Unit Layers (GAUL) of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Figure A1. All data sources are disaggregated or aggregated to the same spatial aggregation Sub-county County State National Source: World Bank. Each input data source is aggregated to this level and form the basis of the data outputs produced by the freight demand modelling. For each commodity, the supply (origin) and demand (destination) volumes are a combination of the aggregated or disaggregated data inputs. The data inputs are processed to ensure total supply is equal to total demand.  82 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics A transportation network is required to distribute the supply to the demand. Once a transport network is created, it is used to inform the relative travel impedance between all districts. Trip distribution uses a double constrained gravity model. This model is solved through iterative proportional fitting, which incorporates supply, demand, and calculated travel impedances from the transport network. Modal choice in South Sudan is assumed to be primarily road, with limited uptake in waterway usage. The model outputs indicate the demand for freight. However, they do not reflect the current state of logistics, which is disrupted by annual flooding and occasional armed conflict and consequent poor or impassable road conditions. Trip distribution is conducted through a gravity model, using a distance table based on an all-or- nothing assignment. Further analysis is conducted based on the outputs of a route choice model. This evaluates a predefined number of shortest routes through the network. The freight is distributed across them based on a function that compares the travel impedance of each of the routes.   Supply and demand (freight generation) Supply South Sudan is a developing economy that has no formalized mining or manufacturing sector. Conflict and hesitance to use chemical fertilizer has also historically proven to be a barrier to formalize much of the agricultural sector. The data inputs used to create the supply of agriculture per county are: • FAO 2017 Sub-Saharan Spatial Production Allocation Model (MapSPAM), • 2019 FAOSTAT national agricultural production, • UNComtrade trade data, and • Desktop research on imports. The agricultural data was processed in a hierarchy of granularity and recency data is used to create the supply at an adm2 level. In general, the latest data is used and filtered down into the next level of higher granularity. The 2019 national crop production figures are, therefore, spatially disaggregated according to the 2019 state level production where available. The production per state is then disaggregated into counties according to the 2017 MapSPAM distribution, which is at a sub-county level and aggregated up to county level, as seen in Figure A12. Imports are incorporated as supply at a border post.  83 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Figure A2. The flow of agricultural production information and disaggregation If mor r c nt Sub-count Count St t N tion l If mor r c nt Utili tion of qu ntiti s iv n r c nc L v l of dis r tion Source: World Bank. Grain Sorghum yield increases The average and median yield per county of grain sorghum in South Sudan obtained from the 2017 Sub-Saharan African MapSPAM spatial data was 0.77 and 0.57 tons per hectare, respectively. The highest yield was recorded in the Upper Nile province from the Melut county with a yield of 3.44 t/ha with the lowest being 0.22 t/ha in Pochalla county in the state of Jonglei. Figure A3 shows the average yield of sorghum per state. Figure A3. Grain Sorghum yields per state based on the 2017 SSA MapSPAM dataset 2.00 1.50 Tons/h 1.00 0.50 - Ni r to r l to rn i s Gh hr rn p rn to rn it l p k rr u nt Un l l Up u st B th l G st u st n l ri ri ri L Jo W l r Eq C W Eq W No Eq E h hr B Source: World Bank.  84 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Apart from Upper Nile, the other states all had yields ranging between 530 and 660 kg/ha. For the additional grain sorghum scenario, the yields were adjusted on a per county basis up to 3 t/ha, which was necessary for all the counties except Melut, that had a yield of 3.44 t/ha. Demand The demand for agricultural commodities were based on the: • National population statistics (South Sudan National Bureau of Statistics and United Nations Population Fund, i.e. UNFPA, and • 2020 FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM) to the Republic of South Sudan. Average per capita food consumption per state was determined based on the 2020 FAO/WFP grain shortage deficit/surplus data. This per capita consumption, multiplied by the population, was used as the basis for county-level demand for all agricultural products in South Sudan. For the increased grain sorghum yield scenario, the demand per county was adjusted to the level where it would alleviate food poverty. The remainder of the demand was located at the Nimule border post towards Uganda for export.   Freight distribution Road network The road network was created using: • OpenStreetMap (OSM) road GIS data, and • South Sudan Ministry of Roads and Bridges (MRB) national roads inventory and information. Table A1 shows the travel impedance weights given to different types of road segments as classified by its classification as either trunk, primary, secondary, or other. The travel impedance is the segment length multiplied by the weight. Table A1. Road segment impedance weights Feature class Weight Trunk 0.6 Primary 0.8 Secondary 1 Other 1.2 Source: World Bank.  85 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Road and waterway network A combined transportation network that added waterway connectivity to the White Nile was created by adding: • OSM river GIS data and • River ports based on communications with the Ministry of Transportation to the road network. Access points to the White Nile were added to the network (in order from South to North) at Juba, Mangalla, Terekaka, Minkamman, Bor, Shambe, Adok, Bentiu, Malakal, Melut, and Renk, as can be seen in Figure A4. Figure A4. A Map of the transport network used for freight flow modelling in South Sudan ROAD WATERWAY CONNECTOR WATERWAY IBRD 48437 | OCTOBER 2024 Source: World Bank. Distance table Despite many roads being inundated for significant portions every year, the road network was treated as fully usable and in a decent condition. This was done to create the freight demand for the current economic situation in South Sudan, given a working transportation network to investigate where freight needs to move, given that there are no extraordinary impediments to its movement. Therefore, the same shortest pairs of all paths in the road network are used as the distance matrix. This serves as the travel impedance for the doubly constrained gravity model for each commodity.  86 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Gravity Model The interchangeability of agricultural commodities makes the probability of long-distance transport highly unlikely. Commodities will more than likely travel short distances (if at all). This is induced by the demand for food being greater than the demand for a specific agricultural commodity. This leads to uniformity of the demand patterns across agricultural commodities. A power function was, therefore, used for the freight distribution between the supply and demand for agricultural commodities. The supply and demand were modelled by subtracting the matched supply and demand for agricultural commodities at a county level. If food demand could be met by a counties’ supply of agricultural commodities, it would first supply itself before its agricultural production would be used to meet the demand in a different county. This ensures that the reality of subsistence farming is taken into account, specifically that current agricultural production levels have led to food shortages.  Results Grain sorghum flows The freight flows for the scenario where grain sorghum yields improved, followed the same process as the modelling of the current freight demand in South Sudan. The difference being that the yields of grain sorghum were increased before the same process was followed. In addition to the road network, the White Nile was presumed navigable and added to the transport network. The resultant freight flows model the increased freight demand of grain sorghum under the new increased yield scenario as seen in Figure A5, which also shows the condition of the road network. Figure A5. Grain sorghum flows under the increased yield scenario in South Sudan (left) with an overlaid road network indicating the conditions of the roads (right) N2 A20 Malakal – UC A10 A20 A20 A15 N1 A25 A30 A35 A40 Wau – UC A85 N1 N2 A50 A60A A60 ROAD CONDITION N1 A60 FAIR A85 A15 N1 Narus – Boma POOR A70 A75 N1 Torit – Lafon N1 A45 A55 N1 IMPASSABLE A55 A75 A45 IBRD 48438 | OCTOBER 2024 Through engagements with the MRB on the modelled freight flows, a set of prioritized roads for intervention (which aren’t currently under contract by the government) were discussed. The identified roads were classified into regional and domestic, based on the purpose they would serve, as seen in Figure A6.  87 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics Figure A6. Regional (left) and domestic (right) roads identified during engagement with the MRB Renk Pariang Malakal Bentiu Tonga Malakal Boro Medina Raja Leer Mayendit Nasir Jikao Nasir Jikao Wau Adok Maper Rumbek Pibor Bor Mogiri Juba Kapoeta Juba Kapoeta Torit Torit Keyala Nadapal Nadapal Kajo Keji Ikotos IBRD 48439 | OCTOBER 2024 Nimule Source: World Bank. Figure A7 shows a map of the freight demand in South Sudan for all agricultural commodities, including the increased grain sorghum production. The different domestic and regional corridors are indicated by various colors and the remaining roads are in black. Figure A7. South Sudan freight flows with regional and domestic identified corridors in various colors Source: World Bank.  88 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics The freight demand volumes on these segments were then evaluated. Figure A8 shows the tons that traversed the segment on each corridor that had the highest amount of freight. The White Nile and Juba to Nimule corridors are the largest corridor segments. Figure A8. Maximum freight flow modelled through a segment on regional and domestic corridors 700,000 600,000 m nt 500,000 400,000 M x Tons of S 300,000 200,000 100,000 - Jub -R nk-Riv r M l k -Jik o Bor-Pibor Jub -N d p l B ntiu-M l k l Ro d Adok-B nti Ikotos_Mo iri Jub -K jo=K ji ndit Boro-M din -W u Jub -Nimul Rumb k-M R ion l Dom stic Source: World Bank. Route choice model A route choice model was implemented to obtain a more conservative estimate of freight movements that would utilize the White Nile. For this reason, a simplified route choice model was implemented, where the probability of each route is proportional to the inverse of its travel cost. That is, the probability, Pi , of freight being transported on route i, with cost ci , which is one of the     alternatives for the origin-destination pair Rn, is defined as:  89 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics This implementation is equivalent to a multinomial logit (MNL) route choice model with, = 1.5, but penalizes disproportionately expensive paths. Where the MNL probability Pi , of freight being   transported on route i with cost ci , which is one of the alternatives for the origin-destination pair Rn,   is defined as: A distance table is generated through solving the shortest pairs between all the centroids of the counties that are connected to the network through its closest segment end or start vertex. The route is then priced out of the transportation network and a new set of shortest paths is found. This process is repeated until the routes are required for the route choice model. In this route choice model, it is also assumed that: • Waterway and road transport times are equal, and • Crossing from one mode to the other is equal to travelling 100km on either. The freight distribution obtained from the increased yield grain sorghum scenario was used in the route choice model to investigate how much potential the waterway has in transporting freight. The tables below show the total tons traversing each waterway location (Table A2) on the Juba – Bor and the tons on each waterway section (Table A3). Table A2. Total tons by waterway facility on the Juba–Bor Waterway location Tons 100km equivalent Tons 50km equivalent mode transfer mode transfer Bor 173,666 188,224 Minkamman 50,356 56,390 Terekeka 77,032 92,294 Mangalla 69,374 81,109 Juba 41,490 45,930 Source: World Bank. Table A3. Total tons on each waterway section on the Juba–Bor Waterway location Tons 100km equivalent Tons 50km equivalent mode transfer mode transfer Bor – Further North 127,313 138,238 Minkamman - Bor 83,702 97,704 Terekeka - Minkamman 33,501 40,762 Mangalla - Terekeka 48,843 57,391 Juba - Mangalla 41,490 45,930 Source: World Bank.  90 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics With these assumptions, the section with the least amount of freight touching the Juba – Bor waterway carries a minimum of 33,501 tons or a maximum of 83,702 tons. If the transfer time between modes is relaxed to be equivalent to travelling 50km, the minimum freight on the Juba – Bor waterway section increases to a minimum and maximum of 40,762 and 97,074 tons, respectively, as can be seen in Figure A9. Figure A9. Tons traversing each section of the White Nile, given the route choice model assignment Tons 100km | 50km Renk — 110,753 | 121,424 94,086 | 103,102 Melut — 34,420 | 37,572 76,316 | 81,562 194,615 | 194,220 Malakal — 110,234 | 120,751 Bentiu — 127,256 | 133,039 89,819 | 85,081 Adok — 133,088 | 136,543 142,089 | 152,880 Shambe — 44,695 | 47,226 127,313 | 138,238 Bor — 173,666 | 188,224 83,702 | 97,074 Minkamman — 50,356 | 56,390 33,501 | 40,762 Terekeka — 77,032 | 92,294 48,843 | 57,391 Mangalla — 69,374 | 81,109 41,491 | 45,930 Juba — 41,490 | 45,930 Source: World Bank.  91 Connecting for Growth South Sudan Transport Infrastructure and Logistics Diagnostics References AfDB (African Development Bank), South Sudan: An Infrastructure Action Plan: A Program for Sustained Strong Economic Growth (Tunis-Belvedere, Tunisia: AfDB, 2013). AfDB, South Sudan: An Infrastructure Action Plan. 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