A BACKGROUND PAPER >> EDUCATION Confidential Education Sector Background Note Annelle Bellony and Shawn Powers This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) with external contributions. The sole responsibility of this publications lies with the authors. The findings, analysis and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of any individual partner organization of The World Bank (including the European Union), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent, and therefore they are not responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein. Although the World Bank and GFDRR make reasonable efforts to ensure all the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy and integrity cannot be guaranteed. Use of any data or information from this document is at the user’s own risk and under no circumstances shall the World Bank, GFDRR or any of its partners be liable for any loss, damage, liability or expense incurred or suffered which is claimed to result from reliance on the data contained in this document. The boundaries, colors, denomination, and other information shown in any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Confidential Table of Contents Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................ 1 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 2 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 11 2. Conceptual Framework for Resilience in Education Systems .......................................... 13 3. Caribbean Education Systems and Vulnerability to Shocks ............................................ 16 4. Quantifying Learning Losses in the COVID-19 Health Shock ........................................... 19 5. Continuity of Learning .................................................................................................. 22 Continuity of Learning Options in Natural Disasters .............................................................................................. 33 Recommendations for Continuity of Learning ........................................................................................................ 34 6. Education Infrastructure .............................................................................................. 38 Impact of Natural Disasters on Learning ................................................................................................................ 38 Recent Disaster Events Effects on Education infrastructure .................................................................................. 39 Antigua and Barbuda Declaration on School Safety in the Caribbean.................................................................... 41 Best Practices on Building and Retrofitting schools ............................................................................................... 45 Closing gaps in disaster resilience of the Caribbean’s school infrastructure stock ................................................ 47 7. Skills for Resilience ....................................................................................................... 49 Demand and Supply Side Considerations for Skills Development .......................................................................... 49 Coping: Setting the Foundation to Build and Sustain Skills for Resilience .......................................................... 50 Managing Continuity: Building skills of the core workforce ................................................................................. 54 Improving and Accelerating: Skills for Transformation and Diversification of Economic Activity ...................... 57 Institutional Systems for Skills for Resilience ......................................................................................................... 60 8. Quantifying readiness and Pathways to Education System Resilience ........................... 64 9. Policy Implications and Conclusions .............................................................................. 73 Revisiting Education System Resilience .................................................................................................................. 73 Roadmap for Education System Resilience............................................................................................................. 74 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................. 77 References .......................................................................................................................... 79 Confidential Abbreviations CAPE Caribbean Advanced Proficiency Examination CARICOM Caribbean Community CCA Climate Change Adaptation CCREEE Caribbean Center for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility CDEMA Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency CDM Comprehensive Disaster Management COHSOD CARICOM Council for Human and Social Development CPEA Caribbean Primary Exit Assessment CSEC Caribbean Secondary Education Certificate CSSI Caribbean Safe School Initiative CVQ Caribbean Vocational Qualification CXC Caribbean Examinations Council DRM Disaster Risk Management DRR Disaster Risk Reduction ECE Early Childhood Education EM-DAT The International Disaster Database GDP Gross Domestic Product HCI Human Capital Index ICT Information and Communication Technology IMF International Monetary Fund ITU International Telecommunications Union LAC Latin America and the Caribbean LAYS Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling MOE Ministry of Education NCDs Non-communicable diseases OECS Organization of Eastern Caribbean States PAHO Pan American Health Organization PISA Programme for International Student Assessment PISA-D PISA for Development PPP Purchasing Power Parity RRM Regional Response Mechanism STEM Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics TVET Technical Vocational Education and Training UNDP United Nations Development Program UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund WHO World Health Organization 1 Confidential Executive Summary Natural disasters and pandemics present as external shocks to Caribbean economies and affect provision of education and learning outcomes through multiple channels. The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted dual shocks to education systems through school closures and the effects of economic recession on households. School closures are almost certain to cause learning loss, widen inequality, and increase student dropout especially among disadvantaged groups. There are health and safety impacts resulting from school closure including potential effects on student’s nutrition, vulnerability, mental health and well-being. The downturns in economic activity it is expected will affect household’s income and lessen the demand for and investment in educational services. COVID-19 affects vulnerable households in the Caribbean disproportionally due to their engagement to jobs in the informal sector and in low-skilled occupations and limited access to social insurance programs. This paper analyzes resilience in the education sector to climate, disaster and health shocks in Caribbean countries through the lenses of continuity of learning during emergency situations, infrastructure and skills. The paper aims to answer four key questions around the main themes. (1) What is the magnitude of expected learning losses due to school closures, given current levels of preparedness? (2) How is continuity of learning achieved in the aftermath of natural disasters and during health shocks, to minimize learning loss, particularly for disadvantaged households? (3) How can gaps in the disaster resilience of the Caribbean’s school infrastructure stock be closed? (4) What are the demand and supply side considerations for development of skills for more resilient Caribbean societies in the future? Across these questions, the paper will attempt when possible to quantify countries’ readiness and pathways to achieve greater education system resilience based on recent experiences with the COVID-19 pandemic and natural disasters. Finally, the paper proposes a common framework and indicators for countries to monitor and measure progress towards resilience in the education sector. These indicators are presented through a traffic light system to identify key actions that countries could consider improving resilience in education. Continuity of Education To assess the issues around continuity of education the paper uses simulations, questionnaire to Ministries of Educations, and household surveys. Simulations are run for different scenarios for school closures ranging from 3, 5 and 7 months to measure the potential losses to schooling, learning, and future income. A total of 16 surveys were administered to respondents from planning, technology, assessment and curriculum departments of the MOE in Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Member Countries, the Dominican Republic and Sint Maarten. Further inputs from counterparts in the Ministries of Health and Disaster related services were incorporated. The questions were set to: (1) discern the policies, plans and guidance documents in use to inform education continuity planning, contingency planning, school reopening, information communication technology in education, psychosocial support, teacher training and outreach to parents and community; (2) quantify perceptions of Ministry of Education’s level of preparation to deliver services; (3) understand types of distance education modalities used to deliver remote learning, available hours and levels of access and participation by students; (4) assess in-person class instruction time lost due to school closure; and (5) identify structures in place for students at risk to dropout. Data from recent rounds of household surveys were used as a secondary tool to understand access to and support for remote learning. With this data, the study derived demographic characteristics of households; educational attainment of adults in the household; and dependency ratios, defined as the average number of children in household per adult. The analysis also benefited from inputs from national 2 Confidential and regional entities engaged in skills development, education infrastructure and distance education delivery. The main findings and discussion points are detailed across the three themes of the paper – continuity of education, education infrastructure and skills development. To reduce the impacts of these shocks – school closures and resultant economic crisis – stemming from natural disasters and pandemics, the paper outlines the policy responses in line with a framework developed by the World Bank team. In the first phase of shock response, the policy interventions are geared to support education systems to cope with school closures and economic crisis. In phase 2, responses are focused on managing continuity of education with controlled reopening of schools, recouping of learning loss, and expansion of skills training. In phase 3, effective policy responses are scaled up exploiting opportunities for improving and accelerating education and skills development (World Bank, 2020c). External shocks to education systems which results in school closures erode gains in learning, especially among disadvantaged groups. Health shocks such as COVID-19 and natural disasters leads to time away from school and this widens achievement gaps and inequalities, especially for students from low-income groups in the Caribbean. School closures due to COVID-19 have left more upwards of 1 million students in the Caribbean, out of school. To slow the spread of the virus, temporary school closures were instituted by mid-March 2020 across the region and remote learning commenced within 2 to 4 weeks thereafter in most jurisdictions. Except for the partial opening of schools for administering or preparing for high stakes examinations, schools across the Caribbean remained closed through summer. Some systems reopened schools (with limitations on capacity) in September, while others continue to offer education primarily through distance modalities. In quantifying the learning losses in the COVID-19 health shock simulation 1 examines the direct impact of school closures on the stock of learning adjusted years of schooling and translates this impact into dollar terms. Simulation 2 provides an estimate of the magnitude of the learning loss. Based on simulation 1, selected Caribbean countries will see a loss of 0.4 years of schooling adjusted for quality if schools are closed for 5 months on account of COVID-19. Children in the Caribbean are expected to be in school on average for 11.8 years, in countries for which data is available. Once schooling is adjusted for quality the average baseline of 7.1 years of learning drops to 6.7 years for the intermediate scenario of school closure. In the optimistic scenario with closure of 3 months, the loss of learning adjusted years is 0.2 years, and in the pessimistic scenario is 0.7 years. In the absence of major remedial actions at onset of resumption of face-to-face instructions or better more targeted remote learning, students will face reductions in their expected annual income. Estimates of these future earning losses range from $100 per year (Haiti) to $902 (Jamaica) in 2017 PPP$ based on the intermediate scenario. This amounts to 3.5 percent and 6.2 percent loss in yearly earning per student in Haiti and Jamaica respectively. School closures of 5 months will cost a student in Haiti US$2,730 and in Jamaica US$13,687 of lifetime earnings. School closures are shown to negatively affect learning. In simulation 2 utilizing data from PISA and PISA- D, the effects of school closures on test scores results in 8 and 7 PISA points losses for the Dominican Republic and Trinidad and Tobago respectively based on the intermediate scenario. The longer schools remain shut, average learning declines further, to 10 PISA points lost in both countries in the pessimistic scenario. 3 Confidential These losses in schooling, learning and earnings will set back the agendas to attain the Sustainable Development Goals and halving learning poverty by 2030. The results amplify the need for consolidated policy responses to counteract the expected losses from COVID-19. Caribbean policymakers can exploit the opportunities, lessons and strategies from COVID-19 and disaster events which disrupt face to face school instruction to inform improvements in parental involvement, assessment, use of digital technology, school support services and pedagogy to enhance quality, equity, efficiency and resilience of education systems. Based on information from the survey to MOEs, Governments’ preparation to manage continuity of learning in the Caribbean was mixed. In the survey, MOEs were asked to indicate their readiness for service continuity in several areas according to a four-point scale from “not at all prepared” to “very prepared.” The responses from the MOEs shows considerable diversity in the self-reported preparation levels across countries as well as across different types of services. Ministries reported weakest preparation on the pedagogical aspects of education continuity. The MOE respondents rated their preparation most highly for sustaining nutrition programs (82 percent “moderately prepared” or “well prepared”), adapting national assessments (67 percent), addressing needs for hygiene supplies and public health information (64 percent), and offering psychosocial support to students and teachers (64 percent). On the other hand, no respondent rated their Ministry as “well prepared” to provide resources and training to teachers and schools to deliver distance education, and respondents were about evenly divided between “a little” and “moderately” prepared. Interestingly, no respondent rated their ministry as “not at all prepared” on this dimension either. This contrast suggests that existing disaster contingency plans provided some baseline for distance delivery, but that the existing resources and plans were overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the disruption from COVID-19. Country strategies for distance delivery favored online education. From the responses of the MOEs, online methods to deliver distance education were universal at the primary and secondary levels, and widespread at other levels. Mobile phones were the second most popular medium for delivery of distance education, especially at the primary and secondary education levels. Learning materials were the third most used means to deliver remote instruction, take-home packages were distributed mainly to students in household without access to technology tools. The use of learning packages, especially those delivered on a one-of basis restricts student and teacher interaction and places significant demand on caregivers to support learners. This remote learning method requires an active feedback loop between students and teachers on pedagogical contents of packages. Television was the fourth most used platform for distance education, and radio was the least utilized technology, in use by less than half of countries at every educational level. The most popular strategies were not necessarily the most equitable when evaluated against students’ access to technology at home. Based on household survey data, 67.7 percent and 82.1 percent of households in Jamaica and Antigua and Barbuda, respectively, report having access to internet. Ownership of computers varies, with households in Saint Lucia registering 32.8 percent, in Jamaica 49.8 percent and in Antigua and Barbuda 73.5 percent. There is a wide disparity in possession of mobile phones in Caribbean homes with students of school age. With the low penetration of fixed broadband in the region and limited ownership of computers, mobile devices are a major entry point to the internet for households. Although televisions were less used as a distance learning method, upwards of three- quarters of households in the region own this appliance. Ownership of radios, which were the least utilized, is low in the Caribbean, with 3 in 10 households in Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada and Saint Lucia claiming ownership of this device. Radio ownership in Jamaica is significantly higher at 73.6 percent based on household survey data. 4 Confidential About one in 10 households with children of school age in the Caribbean lack access to any of the tools and equipment to support remote learning. Inequalities in access to distance delivery methods, especially internet services, reinforces the need to use multiple mediums to deliver distance education and raises serious equity concerns about the primacy of online instruction. Despite the best efforts of governments, distance learning in its varied forms is not reaching all learners. In the Dominican Republic, 26.6 percent of students lack access to any remote learning medium. In the Bahamas, about one-third of students lack the resources for online learning – computer or smart device and internet. There are marked income disparities in access to remote learning. In Jamaica, 20.9 percent of children from the lower income tiers have access to both internet and computer compared to 73.3 percent of children at the top of the income distribution. In the absence of measures such as zero-rated content, data plans, hotspots, Mi-Fi devices, to vulnerable households to improve internet, affordability is a potential challenge. Caribbean households in lower income quintiles have less favorable conditions for learning at hom e, based on findings from household surveys. These households have on average twice the number of children, more than double the proportion of adults with less than high school education, and significantly lower ownership of tools for remote learning, as compared to households at the top of the income distribution. This means that if disadvantaged household own resources to enable remote learning these are likely used on a shared basis by students. In Jamaica, households in the lowest income quintile have on average 2.0 children enrolled in school compared to 0.6 children in the highest quintile. The ability of caregivers in disadvantaged groups to support remote learning is lower given the attainment of high school or higher education as compared to counterparts in higher income groups. Survey results suggest that children at risk for dropout require greater attention as disasters affect student enrolment. Three-fifths of respondents to the MOE survey on education continuity have measures to minimize student dropout. Policymakers have identified the lack of internet connection and devices as potential contributing factors to student’s unintentional exit from the system during COVID - 19. In addition to the use of different distance learning modalities, countries have attempted to provide students especially from disadvantaged households with the enabling inputs for online learning. However, the unanticipated nature of school closures from COVID-19 and the vast demand for online tools restricts government’s ability to finance, procure and supply all students simultaneously. Formal early warning systems to identify students at risk of dropout are in embryonic stages across the Caribbean and poses a challenge in identifying and reaching these children. At the school level, guidance counselors where available, and attendance records are used to track students at risk for dropout, however, it is unclear how aggressively they and their households are supported to return to schools. Countries have identified education management information systems (EMIS) as the basis for early warning of students at risk for dropout. However, in most of Caribbean countries, EMIS are non-existent and where these exist, they are not up-to-date, and if they are current, they lack interoperability with other government administrative databases. The main findings suggest that while distance education solutions have been implemented, data to better monitor and evaluate student’s access, participation and learning in these mediums is limited. While data on the inputs for distance learning (parents’ ability, time, resources; school supply of learning) can be approximated from various sources, data on the outputs and outcomes from remote learning are severely lacking. Distance learning options for early childhood education and work-based learning for technical vocational education and training cohorts are inadequate. Regarding continuity of education the paper recommends as follows: (1) Strengthen initiatives to provide disadvantaged households with remote learning. Governments in the Caribbean, through partnerships 5 Confidential with telecommunications providers, have negotiated to zero-rate content and provided students from vulnerable households with tablets and in some cases stipends to cover data plans. (2) Prioritize the role of, and support for, teachers in the maintenance of learning during a disaster. The findings of the MOE survey highlighted the need for greater focus on teacher preparation and support. The novelty of remote learning and the pedagogical demands on educators requires training reoriented to delivering, monitoring, and assessing learning through varied channels. (3) Monitor learning to devise remedial education solutions, reduce learning loss, and prevent increases in Learning Poverty. Monitoring of teaching and learning provides clear indicators on who is attending, what they are learning, how much time they are spending on learning and how effective are teachers in delivering quality instruction. At the same time, measures to teach students at the right level, training of teachers to deliver distance education and greater outreach and support to parents are key ingredients to improve the delivery of distance education in the immediate short term. The development and strengthening of learning management systems and EMIS are powerful tools to manage the data functions at the school, education and wider government levels to inform future actions. Although distance learning can never substitute perfectly for in-person education, governments have many avenues for improvement and acceleration. The following are general considerations to address the key educational challenge of distance education and learning loss. (1) Recognize that the long-term effects of learning loss on future productivity and economic growth may justify increased outlays on education in the short to medium run, even in the context of economic recession. (2) Assess learning loss through customized assessments and devote time and resources to remedial programs including tutoring, accelerated programs and other specialized interventions for students, once face-to- face instruction resumes, to compensate for learning loss. (3) Aggressively pursue students at risk of dropout and formulate academic and support programs, with options for individualized instruction where feasible to get them back in and stay in school. (4) Create alternative learning pathways for vulnerable students through employment and skills training programs. (5) Develop a suite of continuous professional development and coaching for teachers and school leaders to improve effectiveness. Learning loss worsens the longer schools are shut and the economic repercussions accrue more deeply to students from disadvantaged households. (6) Comprehensively review and assess education systems and form partnerships for regional collaboration and coordination. Countries have much to gain by sharing best practices and innovative approaches across borders, to date, with COVID-19 regional collaboration in education has been limited, except for projects within the purview of the OECS for their Member States. Education Infrastructure As the effects of climate change worsen, Caribbean countries will continue to be affected by global warming and the resultant growth in natural disasters. In 2017 economic losses for Anguilla, Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, Sint Maarten and Turks and Caicos in the aftermath of Hurricanes Irma and Maria were estimated at US$5.4 billion (ECLAC, 2018). Disasters have had devastating effects on Caribbean economies leading to reversals in economic and social gains. The impacts of climate change on small island economies test their resilience with damage to infrastructure, displacement of people, and economic losses in key sectors. Reimagining education infrastructure to lessen effects from external shocks is a central element of building resilience in the sector. The COVID-19 pandemic has introduced new dimensions to education infrastructure linked to physical distancing, stringent sanitation and hygiene specifications, and wider use of technology. 6 Confidential The education sector has faced major losses to infrastructure resulting in school closures with consequent effects on learning. The number of schools destroyed or damaged in recent disasters in Grenada (73 of 75 schools, Hurricane Ivan), Dominica (136 of 163 schools, Hurricane Maria), Haiti (4,268 of 17,800 schools and MOE headquarters, earthquake) point to weaknesses in existing architectural structures. The evidence on learning loss on account of time away from school reinforces the importance of improving and accelerating school safety to build resilience in education infrastructure. At the policy level of the Ministers of Education in the Caribbean, work has started towards attainment of resilience in infrastructure. This is through the instruments of the Caribbean Road Map and the Antigua and Barbuda Declaration on School Safety. As countries rethink educational spaces to be resilient to disasters, climate change and pandemics this requires an understanding of the future requirements of teaching and learning. The following highlights a few pertinent areas: (1) Due to climate change temperatures are becoming hotter and new evidence suggests that higher heat intensities during the academic year reduces the rate of learning (Park, Goodman, Hurwitz, and Smith, 2020). (2) Maintenance of school infrastructure is an area of low priority in the Caribbean. The stock of public schools in the region are largely older than 20 years and are susceptible to natural hazards. While maintenance extends the life of school buildings, in many instances public finances and technical staff are rarely assigned to this function. Delayed spending on maintenance leads progressively to higher long-term costs for rehabilitation and reduces property value. (3) The policy of using schools as the main choice for emergency shelters, and the delays in returning these buildings to substantive use in the aftermath of disasters, prolongs the educational losses from disasters. Months after Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas in 2019 and Hurricane Maria in Dominica in 2017, temporary shelters were still in use by displaced residents. The use of schools as temporary shelters impinges on basic priorities for the education sector in the aftermath of emergencies, which are to minimize disruption to teaching and learning by promptly and safely returning schools to educational functions. The process to build more resilient school infrastructure in the Caribbean has made progress, but more aggressive attention is needed to develop, implement and monitor enabling national policies. The pace of progress on the core aspects of risk reduction and resilience in education including incorporation of disaster risk management into curriculum and training of school staff, caregivers and communities has been slow. The policy responses to allow teaching and learning to be carried out in safe spaces during and after disasters and health shocks include: (1) Improving the resilience of existing buildings to hazards by undertaking school safety assessments and prioritizing the retrofitting and construction of schools most at risk, to improve school safety and protect the well-being of students. (2) Building skills for resilience, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation aimed at building back stronger, faster and more inclusively post-disaster. Focus on safe site selection, physical planning, school safety assessments, methods to construct and retrofit schools in line with national building codes, regulations and safe school standards, and preventative maintenance. (3) Design schools that are well suited to accommodate the needs of all learners for their educational levels, their technical and general education curricula and extra-curricular requirements, gender specificities, inclusive to learners with disabilities and special educational needs and equipped with the technology and resources for twenty-first century teaching and learning. (4) Build back better than before by using climate smart technologies and materials in retrofitting and reconstruction for long-term sustainability of education facilities. (5) Finding alternatives to schools as emergency shelters to minimize the time children spend out of school after disasters. 7 Confidential Skills for Resilience While Caribbean countries are at crossroads to boost growth, increase employment, sustain livelihoods and reorient economies to withstand future shocks, there are critical competencies to support disaster risk reduction and recovery. Investment in human capital is integral to advance disaster risk reduction, resilience, adaptation to climate change and thereby sustain economic growth. To explore the issues around skills for resilience the following areas are reviewed in the paper: (1) the demand and supply considerations for development of skills for more resilient Caribbean societies in the future; (2) Coping with shocks by setting the foundations to build and sustain skills development; (3) Managing continuity by building skills of the core workforce; (3) Improving and accelerating by creating skills for transformation and diversification of economic activity; and (4) Institutional systems for skills for resilience. Climate change, natural disasters and health shocks are redefining jobs and the commensurate skills requirements. To address the demand and supply side considerations for skills the paper explores the policy responses to shocks across three phases – coping, managing continuity, and improving and accelerating. In the coping phase, the focus is on learners, teachers and caregivers, the main actors in basic education system. Learners are the core of education systems, and the emphasis on skills building for this group requires setting strong foundations in literacy and numeracy, revision of curriculum to incorporate content on climate change, disaster risk reduction and the future growth areas for resilience. To effectively integrate additional content on DRR and climate change into teaching and learning requires addressing underlying challenges within education systems. Disruptions from natural disasters and health shocks have magnified the vulnerabilities from reliance on tourism or trade in commodities as economic growth engines. To build back better and sustain long term economic growth, following disasters and health shocks, an important pivot in the structure of economies to focus on transformation and diversification is paramount. Policymakers in the Caribbean have commenced discussions on key areas for transformation and diversification of economic activity and to support this switch requires building the corresponding technical and behavioral skills sets. The development of a regional model for improving and accelerating skills for resilience during pandemics is past due. Caribbean countries have somewhat perfected the model to prepare, respond and recover from natural disasters due to the localized occurrence of these events. In the case of pandemics which affects countries almost simultaneously, the region now needs to devise specific methods to access and fill skills gaps. The regional disaster deployment model is a starting point from which to develop a functional structure to address skills gaps arising from pandemics. During COVID-19 some Caribbean countries supplemented the national supply of nurses with recruitment of health care workers from Cuba (Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, Dominica, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, among others) and Ghana (Barbados). In education, a regional model to share best practices on teacher training, digital technologies, distance learning, and coaching, on audio/visual content, and other innovative and cost-effective approaches has not been practiced at scale. There are significant opportunities arising from COVID-19 to collaborate, coordinate and develop regional models to fill skills gaps. Plus, given high rates of youth unemployment it is worthwhile to focus on training programs for this cohort of future workers to benefit regional labor markets. The structures for developing skills for resilience through continuous professional development and training exist at the national and regional levels. There are organized structures and professional bodies and associations for builders and contractors, engineers, and architects. However, the mandates of these 8 Confidential entities can be broadened to support the professional development and certification of members. Although the systems are in place there are capacity constraints to effectively develop and regulate training standards, set criteria and guidelines for certification and licensing of building practitioners and professionals, and to review performance and develop and update database of licensed professionals. Once the requirements for certification, accreditation and licensing are enforced at the policy level through a robust regulatory framework this will filter through education and training systems. At the regional level, the universities, CARICOM Regional Organization for Standards and Quality, CDEMA, Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility, CXC, OECS, sector bodies in agriculture, tourism, energy, and health, and development partners all play different roles in skills development for resilience. To build and sustain skills for resilience will require greater collaboration of these entities in developing and supporting multidisciplinary training programs. Transforming and diversifying away from vulnerable industries will promote resilience in Caribbean economies and this will require development of complementary skills. The areas of digital technology, automation, creative and cultural industries, blue and green economies and climate change adaptation have been discussed by regional policymakers as potential areas for economic diversification, and job creation. The rapid move to distance education, growth in technology for work, leisure, business and health, the push for improved internet connectivity, and large talented youth population all provides an enabling environment for innovative skills development in the projected diversification sectors. Plus, the regional frameworks in the form of the CARICOM Human Resource and Development Strategy, the CVQs, and the free movement of skilled personnel broadens the scope for transformation and diversification around the Caribbean. The personnel to manage disaster risk reduction are available in the Caribbean public sector . All countries have disaster offices, and multisectoral councils to oversee disaster risk reduction and resilience. These structures are well established and staffed with career public sector employees (established staff) and temporary contractual staff (non-established). A review of the annual public estimates of revenue and expenditure identified budgetary allocation for training across the public service pointing to professional development opportunities. Capital projects related to climate change, disaster risk reduction, agriculture, digital transformation, and public sector modernization are areas of increasing focus in the Caribbean. Within these projects are components for training and these are geared to not only support countries with coping with adverse events but also improving and accelerating policy responses, sustain gains and build resilience. Instituting mechanisms within the public and private sectors to formalize continuous professional development is an essential step to improve performance, productivity, competitiveness and human capital. Traffic Light System To assist countries in monitoring their progress toward resilient education systems, the paper proposes a common framework and indicators. The indicators are presented through a “traffic light system” to identify key actions to build and improve resilience in education at the national level, while also recognizing the important role of regional coordination in the resilience of the education sector. The system presents three levels of maturity – nascent, emerging and established- alongside proposed pillars of resilience to build resilience in education. 9 Confidential The proposed pillars for resilience draw upon the three main themes of the paper – continuity of education, infrastructure and skills – to elaborate and suggest possible actions to strengthen education systems. The pillars suggested to track the development of education systems are: 1. Factors contributing to provision of education continuity during disasters and health shocks, namely the plans, strategies, support services, and the monitoring and evaluation frameworks to track effectiveness of the intervention and to monitor children at risk for dropout. 2. Metrics to test the capabilities of the system to function and support learners and the enabling environment for access to distance education. 3. Use of school facilities as temporary shelters, and decisions that affect the quality of the infrastructure such as site selection, design and construction, use of model safe school guidelines, and maintenance. 4. Data management systems including an EMIS and school mapping. 5. Safe school regulations, legal and institutional frameworks including legislation, plans, policies, and coordination mechanisms. 6. Alignment of the plans and policies with national DRM plan, resource allocation and monitoring and evaluation for safe schools. 7. The development of skills to support distance learning and build human capital in DRM and climate change. Health pandemics and natural disasters provide opportunities to improve and accelerate policy responses to withstand future events and thereby build resilience into education systems. The findings in this paper provides evidence on learning loss arising from school closures, and the unequal access to distance learning for children from disadvantaged households. Traditionally the areas of quality are prioritized to address achievement gaps and recoup learning losses, however, limiting the level of damage to education facilities during disasters shortens the duration of school closures following disasters. Also, using alternate spaces as emergency shelters for displaced residents reduces school closure times. Finally, creating the institutional structures for skills development across all spheres of the economic and social ecosystem builds resilience over the long term. 10 Confidential 1. Introduction Health shocks and natural disasters present as external shocks to Caribbean economies . Caribbean economies are largely tourism or trade dependent and are affected by these externally induced shocks through demand and supply factors. Disasters reduce tourism arrivals directly through damage and destruction to air and seaports, road networks, hotels and utilities, which reduce the inflows of tourism with spillovers to revenues and employment. In the case of trade shocks, the economies of Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Belize and Guyana have been directly affected during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic by declines in the international prices of commodities on which these economies rely, including oil, natural gas, agricultural products and gold. The closure of borders and the concomitant disruptions to global supply chains contributes to a decline in aggregate demand with spillover effects on other sectors such as manufacturing and agriculture. COVID-19 shocks affect vulnerable households in the Caribbean disproportionally due to their engagement to jobs in the informal sector and in low-skilled occupations and limited access to social insurance programs. To address the economic and social fallouts from COVID-19, countries in the Caribbean have instituted policy measures to respond to the crisis. These include health and safety measures to minimize the spread of the virus, fiscal and monetary policy measures, increases in social spending and expansions in social assistance programs. In the areas of social programs in this crisis and similarly post-disaster, the focus of assistance is to improve welfare and livelihoods through temporary expansions in social protection programs and unemployment insurance to workers in the formal sector. The use of these social and economic policy measures, although temporary, adds strain to the fiscal systems of countries in the region, which in normal times have high gross domestic product (GDP) to debt levels, are open economies with requirements for foreign exchange inflows to cover imports and service external debt, and are heavily reliant on migrant remittances as buffers for disadvantaged households. At the same time, a shock as severe as COVID-19 may present opportunities to “build back better” and position Caribbean countries to sustain economic growth and development in the long run. External shocks affect provision of education and learning outcomes through multiple channels. COVID- 19 has inflicted dual shocks to education systems through school closures and the effects of economic recession on households. In the case of natural disasters, depending on the type and severity of the event, the effects of the shock on the education system varies, resulting in localized or national school closures. School closures are almost certain to cause learning loss, widen inequality, and increase student dropout especially among disadvantaged groups. From the standpoint of the economic shock, education systems are further impacted through demand and supply choices of governments and households. Combined, these shocks have the potential to generate long-run costs on livelihoods through reduced productivity and earnings, diminished economic prospects and lower human capital accumulation (World Bank, 2020c). Resilience in education is the capacity of education systems to reduce the adverse effects of shocks, maintain a safe learning environment, and continue to provide equitable access to quality teaching and learning during and after crises. Resilience in education is the ability of systems to cope with and continue functioning during and after disasters and health shocks, as well as the ability of the system to “bounce back” after the shocks. Increasing a country’s education resilience entails building and strengthening systems to mitigate the effects of disasters and health shocks and sustain learning outcomes by adapting 11 Confidential services to cope and recover from these shocks with minimum disruption to main beneficiaries. Building resilience in education on account of disasters and health shocks requires improving access to safe schools, with core focus on quality, equity and inclusion. Resilience in education is distinct from education for resilience, which is the contribution of the education system to building societies and economies that are themselves more resilient to shocks. Education for resilience may include incorporating disaster risk reduction into education through the curriculum and resource materials, as well as enhancing human capacity development in core skills required for prevention, mitigation, and recovery from pandemics, natural disasters, and other shocks. This paper analyzes resilience in the education sector to climate, disaster and health shocks in Caribbean countries through the lenses of continuity of learning during emergency situations, infrastructure and skills. The paper aims to answer four key questions around the main themes. (1) What is the magnitude of expected learning losses due to school closures, given current levels of preparedness? (2) How is continuity of learning achieved in the aftermath of natural disasters and during health shocks, to minimize learning loss, particularly for disadvantaged households? (3) How can gaps in the disaster resilience of the Caribbean’s school infrastructure stock be closed? (4) What are the demand and supply side considerations for development of skills for more resilient Caribbean societies in the future? Across these questions, the paper will attempt when possible to quantify countries’ readiness and pathways to achieve greater education system resilience based on recent experiences with the COVID-19 pandemic and natural disasters. In the final section, the paper proposes a common framework and indicators for countries to monitor and measure progress towards resilience in the education sector. The indicators are presented through a traffic light system to identify key actions that countries could consider improving resilience. In defining these indicators, the paper explores the role for regional coordination in the resilience of the education sector and provides additional recommendations on building resilience in education systems. 12 Confidential 2. Conceptual Framework for Resilience in Education Systems This section presents the conceptual framework used to analyze and elaborate upon resilience in education systems in the Caribbean. The impacts from natural disasters and health shocks in the absence of corrective measures will inflict long term costs on beneficiaries of education systems. There are differences between disasters – earthquakes, fires, hurricanes, floods, landslides, heat waves, volcanic eruptions, among others-, and pandemics which potentially lead to different solutions. Nevertheless, natural disasters and pandemics affect education systems through two main shocks: (1) the effects from school closures; and (2) the outcomes from the resultant economic crises. An additional dimension of effects is through: (3) lives (children, educators and staff) that are lost because of vulnerable and low- quality schools. Combined the main twin shocks if not adequately addressed causes long-run costs to students, families and society. The framework to assess shocks to education developed by a team from the World Bank Education Group (World Bank, 2020c) is outlined in Figure 1. Figure 1. Effects of Shocks on Education System Source: World Bank 2020c. The shock of school closure has direct education costs which impacts learning. The closure of schools and reduction in face-to-face instruction robs students of teaching and learning, widens achievement gaps and has the potential to reduce attachment to schooling. As further outlined in Figure 1, there are health and safety impacts resulting from school closure shocks, including potential effects on student’s nutrition, vulnerability, mental health and well-being. Natural disasters and pandemics in parallel, impose economic shocks which similarly affects education. The downturns in economic activity it is expected will affect household’s income and lessen the demand for and investment in educational services. The closure of schools will affect students in different ways and invariably cause an increase in dropout, especially for students from disadvantaged groups. As will be shown later in this paper natural disasters and health shocks puts significant pressure on education supply. If the shocks to education, presented in Figure 1 13 Confidential are left unattended, Learning Poverty rises, human capital decreases, inequality in education expands, and poverty grows, among other long-run costs (World Bank, 2020c). Shocks to education systems are transmitted through different channels and impedes progress to attain resilience. The constituent parts of a functioning education system are the key inputs of institutional and regulatory frameworks, funding mechanism, resources and materials, infrastructure, workforce, and households and communities. External pressures which add stress to the systems’ inputs offsets the main education processes and derails attainment of outputs and outcomes. Imbalances in the external environment which occur alongside shocks to education systems diminishes resilience. This suggests that strategies and policies for continuity of education need to be integrated into broader multi-sectoral continuity strategies and policies to effectively build more resilient communities and cities to ensure that education is not disrupted due to external environment factors as telecommunication services, road blockages, displacement and loss of households’ income. Attaining an optimal long-term outcome is by reducing pre-disaster vulnerabilities to minimize reactive recovery approaches and limit infrastructure and learning losses. Figure 2 elaborates external shock effects on education systems to highlight the multiple transmission flows of the challenges to the system requiring multi-prong responses. Figure 2. External shocks External effects shocks on education effects system: Transmission on the education flows system: Transmission channels/flows INPUTS MAIN PROCESSES OUTPUTS OUTCOMES Institutional crisis Teaching and learning process is suspended Student´s lifecycle of Laws, policy and Insufficient access to earnings and well-being are regulation, EMIS Teaching and learning education at risk Economic shock: processes in quality spending cuts Funding learning environments Equitable access and Inadequate, Curriculum mismatched quality education for Students learning in safe Physical learning environments Learning materials and are affected all students and healthy learning Strikes, resources environments Shortages Education systems Teachers and (emigration) administrative staff Management Education quality is Students are not learning, affected School closure - Learning Poverty increases Infrastructure out School buildings Lack of data and information for policy of operation planning and decision making Household (Demand, users) Excess demand by Access to other basic services migrants, refugees Households and inertia communities Loss of basic services, limited access, affordability, coverage, quality External environment: Geography, economy, governance, institutions, demographics, etc. Source: World Bank Global Program for Safer Schools To reduce the impacts of these shocks – school closures and resultant economic crisis – stemming from natural disasters and pandemics, the paper presents a Policy Response Framework in Figure 3. In a resilient education system, schools are safe and inclusive learning environments that are able to continue to provide equitable access to quality teaching and learning during and after crises, and are places where children and families are equipped with the right skillset to better prepare for and manage crises and recover from them. Hence, building a resilient education system requires actions in four areas: (1) ensuring education infrastructure is safe and inclusive; (2) when shocks occur, ensuring education continuity is safeguarded, by minimizing learning loss; (3) ensuring the learning program equips societies with the right skills for resilience; and 14 Confidential (4) adopting an enabling environment that provides appropriate policies and legislation and the necessary financing, so measures in each of the other three areas can be implemented and succeed. The framework in Figure 3 covers each of these four areas, proposing—a scattershot list of—indicators to monitor and measure progress towards resilience in the education sector. In the overlapping sections are indicators that benefit both overlapping areas. For example, appropriate teacher training equips teachers with the means to transfer the appropriate skills to their pupils while it also teaches them how to continue doing so, when the education system is temporarily disrupted. Around the framework the three response phases to shocks are shown. In the first phase, the policy interventions are geared to support education systems to cope with school closures. In phase 2, responses are focused on managing continuity of education with controlled reopening of schools, recouping of learning losses, expansion of skills training, and reducing school infrastructure challenges. In phase 3, effective policy responses are scaled up exploiting opportunities for improving and accelerating education and skills development (World Bank 2020c). Figure 3. A framework to assess the resilience of education systems Source: Adapted from GADRRRES and UNISDR, 2017 15 Confidential 3. Caribbean Education Systems and Vulnerability to Shocks The Caribbean’s vulnerability to external shocks exist against a backdrop of low and inequitable learning levels. Hundreds of millions of children globally reach adulthood without the most basic life skills, despite having gone to school, which presents a challenge for the attainment of Sustainable Development Goal 4 by 2030 (World Bank, 2018cb; UNESCO, 2019). Table 1 presents two indices of education quality in the Caribbean. Learning poverty refers to the inability of a student to read and understand a simple, age- appropriate text by age 10 (World Bank, 2019a). In Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), the learning poverty average is 51 percent, as compared to 53 percent average for low and middle-income countries (Azevedo et al., 2019). Learning Poverty is computed as the weighted average of the share of enrolled learners of primary school age who read below the minimum proficiency level adjusted by the proportion of children out of school (World Bank 2019a). Out of school children are considered non-proficient and below the minimum proficiency level. The Human Capital Index (HCI) measures the amount of human capital that a child born today can expect to attain by age 18, given the risks of poor health and poor education that prevail in the country where she lives (World Bank, 2018b). Included in the HCI are the expected years of schooling and learning adjusted years of schooling (LAYS), which measures the years of learning students are expected to attain against the benchmark of top-performing education systems (Filmer, Rogers, Angrist, and Sabarwal, 2018). The difference between expected years of schooling and LAYS is an indicator of the number of school years “lost” to poor quality education: in Guyana, for instance, the gap is 5.4 years. Gender disparities in learning also existed before the pandemic and are likely to be magnified by it: globally and in LAC countries for which learning poverty estimates are available, girls are on average 6.0 and 4.1 percentage points less likely to be learning poor than boys (World Bank, 2019b). In the 18 countries in LAC for which Learning Poverty estimates are available in 16 of those, girls are less learning poor than boys. Girls in the Caribbean are less learning poor than boys, in the Dominican Republic (by 2.1 percentage points), Belize (by 6.2 percentage points) and in Trinidad and Tobago (by 8.1 percentage points) (World Bank, 2019b). Table 1. The Caribbean score in Learning Poverty and Human Capital Index Learning Poverty Indicators (%) Human Capital Components Learning Country Below Minimum Expected Years Learning Poverty Out of School Adjusted Years Proficiency of Schooling of Schooling Antigua and Barbuda - - - 13.0 8.4 Belize 76.4 74.8 6.5 - - Dominica 12.4 8.0 Dominican Republic 80.7 79.4 6.6 11.9 6.6 Grenada - - - 13.1 8.3 Guyana - - - 12.2 6.8 Haiti - - - 11.4 6.1 Jamaica - - - 11.4 7.1 Saint Kitts and Nevis - - - 13.0 8.5 Saint Lucia - - - 12.7 8.5 Saint Vincent and - - - 12.3 7.7 Grenadines Trinidad and Tobago 20.7 19.7 1.3 12.4 9.1 Source: Azevedo et al., 2019); Human Capital Index Update, 2020; and Learning Poverty Country Briefs, 2019. 16 Confidential Regional examination results also reveal inequitable learning outcomes. Data from the Caribbean Examination Council (CXC) on performance on their suite of examinations administered at end of primary (CPEA), secondary (CSEC), further education (CAPE) and skills training (CVQ) paints a vivid picture on education and skills development in the region. A small cohort of children in the Caribbean participate annually in the Caribbean Primary Exit Assessment (CPEA); this measures the literacies required by all students exiting primary education. The results reveal that about one-half and two-thirds of students at the end of primary school have the proficiencies in mathematics and language, respectively (CXC, 2020). At the secondary level, satisfactory performance on Caribbean Secondary Education Certificate (CSEC) in mathematics and language (English A) measured by passes at grades I -III was attained by 46.0 percent and 77.0 percent1 of the 2019 cohort, respectively (CXC, 2020). The CSEC examinations is a critical high stakes examination, as five passes including mathematics and English with grades I – III are key prerequisites for admission to further education at the community college level and a signaling mechanism on competence for entry into the labor market. The attainment of this CSEC milestone was attained by 31 percent of students in 2018 in the sub-sample of OECS member states (OECS, 2020). Low performance in mathematics is a regional problem as this persists from the primary level through to the secondary level, this suggests that in the intervening years measures to improve student’s performance are not successfully pursued. In the 2019 CSEC mathematics the percentage of students attaining grades I- III by country were as follows: Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, 33.1 percent; Grenada, 38.6 percent; Antigua and Barbuda, 39.7 percent; Guyana 43.0 percent; Dominica 46.7 percent; Saint Kitts and Nevis, 51.1 percent; Jamaica, 54.6 percent; and Barbados 61.6 percent. To improve performance on mathematics more attention is required on developing student’s metacognitive skills, training and coaching of specialist teachers, provision of resource materials, and tailored assessment to track performance with corresponding remediation programs. There is evidence of gender disparity in education participation and eventually in the demand for academic credentials evidenced by CSEC and CAPE candidate and subject entries. There are gender differences in educational participation for boys in the region. The Net Enrolment Rate Gender Parity Index provides a measure of the access to education by females as a percentage of males. In the Caribbean, the index generally favors girls at the pre-primary and secondary education. At the primary education level there is equality of access for both boys and girls reflected by a Gender Parity Index of 1.0 for Caribbean small states. For the most recent five-year period, three-fifths of participants in the summer session of CSEC and CAPE were female (CXC, 2020). Further review of gender in education identifies a stark reality on presence of boys in education. From CSEC and CAPE 2019 examination entries, 4 of 10 entrants in the Caribbean were males. In Dominica, Grenada and Saint Lucia, closer to 3 of 10 males participate in CAPE exams. Of the 2017 CSEC cohort exiting secondary level more than 75 percent did not survive to formal continuing education, as indicated by CAPE candidate entries in 2019. This is likely explained by students not meeting the entry requirements to progress to institutions offering CAPE programs, enrollment in other training programs, labor market entry, or exit from formal education. Figure 4 presents data on candidates’ registration by gender to participate in the 2019 CSEC and CAPE. The exit from formal education system after secondary education or before is not unusual in the Caribbean. In fact, secondary level education and below is the highest level of attainment for a significant percentage of Caribbean population as evidenced by data from household surveys. In Antigua and Barbuda 76.7 percent of the 1 Performance in language (English A) in 2019 was above 75 percent in Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, among others. 17 Confidential population record secondary – and less than secondary as their highest educational attainment; in Grenada it is 83.3 percent; in Jamaica, 55.3 percent; and in Saint Lucia 76.9 percent. To further understand the Caribbean’s vulnerability to these shocks the performance of boys in education is reviewed. Figure 4. Caribbean Regional Examinations Candidate Entry (2019) Female Male 73871 50983 19080 11864 CSEC CAPE Source: CXC 2020 Boys in the Caribbean are underperforming in education. At the secondary level the performance of boys in the CSEC English examinations is on average 11 point lower than that of girls. The gender difference in performance in mathematics on the CSEC and CAPE examinations is negligible. The variance in learning outcomes by gender is further observed in the LAYS, with boys recording lower levels of actual learning in 9 of 10 Caribbean countries for which data is available (Box 1). Saint Kitts and Nevis is the exception. Girls on average register 0.6 years more actual learning than boys. On harmonized test scores in the 11 Caribbean countries with available data, the performance favors girls by much as 32 – point difference in score in Jamaica to Haiti on the low range with a 9 – point gender disparity in test score. Box 1. Educational Performance and Learning Outcomes by Gender Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling by Harmonized Test Scores by Gender Gender Quality and equity challenges in the delivery of distance 500education, combined with time away from traditional 10.00 school settings, leads to achievement gaps for students. The literature on summer learning 450 loss,9.00 measures the attainment of students at the end of the400school year directly preceding summer break 8.00 and again in the new academic school year (Kuhfeld and Tarasawa, 2020). On average, children from low- 350 7.00 income 6.00 households lose the equivalence of 2 to 3 months 300 of learning when compared to peers from high- income households (Cooper et al. 1996; Alexander, 250 Entwisle and Olson, 2007). Teacher strikes of 5.00 protracted 200 durations are shown to have long term effects on students’ education outcomes and earnings 4.00 (Baker, 3.00 2013; Belot and Webbink, 2010; Jaume and Willén, 150 2019). In the medium term, the evidence 2.00 100 points to lower scores in mathematics and reading, an increase in repetition, transition to lower tiers in 1.00 50 higher education, fewer years of schooling and delays in graduation from high school. Over the long- 0.00 0 term, loss of instruction time in primary education is linked to fewer years of schooling, and lower labor market earnings later in life. Boys Girls Boys Girls 18 Source: World Bank Human Capital Project Databank, 2020. Confidential 3. Quantifying Learning Losses in the COVID-19 Health Shock External shocks to education systems which results in school closures erode gains in learning, especially among disadvantaged groups. Health shocks such as COVID-19 and natural disasters leads to time away from school and this widens achievement gaps and inequalities, especially for students from low-income groups in the Caribbean. School closures due to COVID-19 have left more than 1 billion students worldwide and of this upwards of 1 million in the Caribbean, out of school. To slow the spread of the virus, temporary school closures were instituted by mid-March 2020 across the region and remote learning commenced within 2 to 4 weeks thereafter in most jurisdictions. Except for the partial opening of schools for administering or preparing for high stakes examinations, schools across the Caribbean remained closed through summer. Some systems reopened schools (with limitations on capacity) in September, while others continue to offer education primarily through distance modalities (World Bank, 2020b). School closure and time away from school invariably contributes to learning loss, with the effects more pronounced for lower income households (Kuhfeld and Tarasawa, 2020). The lessons are clear for countries in the Caribbean. Students from disadvantaged households, are more likely to lack access to the elements which influence quality and equitable distance learning, namely, resources, parental support and supportive services such as nutrition and psychosocial care. Despite the best efforts of governments to provide remote learning solutions, the quality of education provision is different from in-person interactions and classroom learning. These factors combine to widen the achievement gaps between different socioeconomic groups and learning loss across the education system. A simulation tool developed by Azevedo, Hasan, Goldemberg, Iqbal and Geven (2020a) quantifies the possible short- and long-term impacts of school closures based on different assumptions about the duration of the interruption and the quality of mitigation measures. Simulations are run for school closures ranging from 3, 5 and 7 months and varying dimensions of effectiveness of mitigation strategies such as distance learning to generate optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, schools are closed for 3 months and the effectiveness of enacted mitigation measures are high. In the intermediate scenario schools are closed for 5 months and mitigation measures result in a middle level of effectiveness. In the pessimistic scenario schools are closed for 7 months and the mitigation measures return low levels of effectiveness (Azevedo, Geven, Goldemberg, Hasan and Iqbal, 2020b). Simulations measure the potential losses to schooling, learning, and future income. Simulation 1 examines the direct impact of school closures on the stock of learning adjusted years of schooling and translates this impact into dollar terms. Simulation 1 is performed for Guyana, Haiti and Jamaica as HCI data are available for these countries. Simulation 2 provides an estimate of the magnitude of the learning loss. Estimates are based on (i) typical test score gains from one grade to the next, (ii) assumptions on the supply of alternative modalities, (iii) data on access to alternative modalities, (iv) assumptions on the effectiveness of alternative modalities, and (v) assumptions on the duration of school closures. The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) and PISA for Development (PISA-D) data for the latest available year are used for these calculations (Azevedo et al., 2020b). This data is available for Trinidad and Tobago and the Dominican Republic, and scenarios for the 2 simulations mentioned above are derived for these countries. 19 Confidential Based on Simulation 1, selected Caribbean countries will see a loss of 0.4 years of schooling adjusted for quality if schools are closed for 5 months on account of COVID-19. Children in the Caribbean are expected to be in school on average for 11.8 years, in countries for which data is available. Once schooling is adjusted for quality the average baseline of 7.1 years of learning drops to 6.7 years for the intermediate scenario of school closure. In the optimistic scenario with closure of 3 months, the loss of learning adjusted years is 0.2 years, and in the pessimistic scenario is 0.7 years (Figure 5). Figure 5. Effect on Learning (LAYS and EYS) 6.5 Pessimistic 11.2 6.7 Intermediate 11.4 6.9 Optimistic 11.6 7.1 Baseline 11.8 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 Learning Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS) Expected Years of Schooling (EYS) Source: Generated from simulation tool developed by Azevedo et al. 2020a In the absence of major remedial actions at onset of resumption of face-to-face instructions or better more targeted remote learning, students will face reductions in their expected annual income. Estimates of these future earning losses range from $100 per year (Haiti) to $902 (Jamaica) in 2017 PPP$ based on the intermediate scenario.2 This amounts to 3.5 percent and 6.2 percent loss in yearly earning per student in Haiti and Jamaica respectively. School closures of 7 months—a pessimistic scenario—will cost a student in Haiti US$147 and in Jamaica US$1,422 of average annual earnings (Table 2). Table 2. Per student lifetime-average annual earnings at present value by country (2017 PPP$) Baseline Optimistic Intermediate Pessimistic DOM 8,812 8,754 8,689 8,615 GUY 8,860 8,685 8,498 8,288 HTI 2,830 2,777 2,730 2,683 JAM 14,589 14,151 13,687 13,167 TTO 12,180 11,901 11,623 11,194 Source: Generated from Simulation tool developed by Azevedo et al., 2020a 2 The future earnings loss for the intermediate scenario of 5 months of school closure as a percentage of Gross National Income per capita 2017 PPP$ are: Dominican Republic (1.4 percent); Trinidad and Tobago (4.6 percent); Guyana (4.1 percent); Haiti (3.5 percent); and Jamaica (6.2 percent). 20 Confidential School closures negatively affect learning. In Simulation 2, utilizing data from PISA and PISA-D, the effects of school closures on test scores results in 8 and 7 PISA points losses for the Dominican Republic and Trinidad and Tobago respectively based on the intermediate scenario. The longer schools remain shut, average learning declines further, to 10 PISA points lost in both countries in the pessimistic scenario. These losses in schooling, learning and earnings will set back the agendas to attain the Sustainable Development Goals and halving learning poverty by 2030. The results amplify the need for consolidated policy responses to counteract the expected losses from COVID-19. Despite expectations of widening in achievement gaps from COVID-19 school closure, as evidenced in international literature on summer breaks, teacher strikes, weather events, flu, Ebola; the good news is that some of the educational loss can be recovered if remediation and educational reform is rigorous (Cooper, Nye, Charlton et al., 1996; Atteberry and McEachin, 2019; Jaume et al., 2019; Goodman, 2014; Aucejo and Romano, 2016; Hallgarten, 2020; Sacerdote, 2012; Beaglehole, Bell, Frampton and Moor, 2016). Caribbean policymakers can exploit the opportunities, lessons and strategies from COVID-19 and disaster events which disrupt face to face school instruction to inform improvements in parental involvement, assessment, use of digital technology, school support services and pedagogy to enhance quality, equity, efficiency and resilience of education systems. The next section explores the experience of COVID-19 and draws lessons for continuity of learning following disasters and during pandemics. 21 Confidential 4. Continuity of Learning While Caribbean countries in the past have faced school closures due to civil unrest and natural disasters, the magnitude and duration of shutdowns and the number of learners affected due to COVID - 19 is without historical precedent. In past incidences of natural disasters schools were closed for segments of the student population for as little as 2 weeks in Dominica following Tropical Storm Erika to as long as one-year and counting post-earthquake in Haiti (Government of Dominica, 2015; Government of Haiti, 2020). In the case of COVID-19, by mid- March 2020, schools in most Caribbean countries were closed for face-to-face instruction, equating to one third of the school year lost. Governments in the Caribbean were swift to initiate continuity of education solutions to mitigate the effects of COVID-19 on the education system. This closing of schools followed immediately by summer break will likely have major impacts on learners, greater for younger children and those from disadvantaged households. Some of the effects of educational loss on account of the pandemic will be offset by remote learning, with variations dependent on the quality and quantity of instruction and support provided by schools and caregivers. To analyze continuity of education during the COVID-19 health shock, a questionnaire was administered to the Ministries of Education (MOEs) in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Member Countries, the Dominican Republic and Sint Maarten. The term continuity of education and continuity of learning are used interchangeable throughout this paper to reference actions, resources, and measures used to support the continuation of teaching and learning, during and after events which triggers the closing of schools for an extended period. A total of 16 surveys were administered to respondents from the planning, technology, assessment and curriculum departments of the MOE.3 Further inputs from counterparts in the Ministries of Health and Disaster related services were incorporated. The analysis also benefited from inputs from national and regional entities engaged in skills development, education infrastructure and distance education delivery. The questions were set to: (1) discern the policies, plans and guidance documents in use to inform education continuity planning, contingency planning, school reopening, information communication technology in education, psychosocial support, teacher training and outreach to parents and community; (2) quantify perceptions of Ministry of Education’s level of preparation to deliver services; (3) understand types of distance education modalities used to deliver remote learning, available hours and levels of access and participation by students; (4) assess in-person class instruction time lost due to school closure; and (5) identify structures in place for students at risk to dropout. COVID-19 provides a natural experiment to derive effective models for distance education programs for use during both disasters and pandemics. While the survey to the MOEs focused on COVID-19, the responses are instructive to understand education continuity planning and availability of support services to educators and households. Given that disasters may be more limited in their geographical impacts, allowing for different, but tailored solutions for education continuity than the case with pandemics. In Antigua and Barbuda, following the passage of Hurricane Irma, students were temporarily relocated to non-impacted schools. In Haiti, following the earthquake in 2010, temporary facilities like tents and semi- permanent structures were erected to facilitate continuity of learning. The education continuity strategies following disasters are varied as opposed to pandemics which warrant shifting directly to 3 Survey responses are available for 11 countries – The Bahamas, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago 22 Confidential remote learning. A review of household assets provides insights into avenues for creating viable education continuity strategies for addressing continuity in both disasters and pandemics. Data from recent rounds of household surveys were used as a secondary tool to understand access to and support for remote learning. With this data, the study derived (1) demographic characteristics of the households; (2) educational attainment of adults in the household; and (3) dependency ratios, defined as the average number of children in household per adult. Access to household level data were limited either by country specific stipulations on access to micro-level data sub-samples or the unavailability of recent household level data with socio-economic data. As a result of these constraints, the analysis is undertaken for Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada, Jamaica and Saint Lucia. Regional institutions provide guidance and blueprints to countries during natural disasters and health shocks. Before delving into the specific actions of national governments to provide education services during school closures, it is worth highlighting the role of regional entities. The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) has the primary responsibility to coordinate response and relief efforts in its participating member countries and promote the adoption of disaster risk reduction policies and practices.4 CDEMA is supported in this work by a regional network of national disaster management offices and disaster committees comprised on high-level officials from across public and private sectors, non-governmental organizations and civil society groups in the respective countries. The CDEMA coordinating unit mobilizes the Regional Response Mechanism (RRM) made up of the Regional Security System, Rapid Needs Assessment Team, agencies and organizations. CDEMA and the RRM works in close collaboration with the Eastern Caribbean Donor Group. This latter group is chaired by the United Nations Barbados office and is comprised of regional and international development partners. The mechanism to respond to health shocks utilizes a similar but more expanded coordination structure. Coordination is managed by CDEMA and delivered through the RRM. In this elaboration of the RRM, entities represent telecommunications, logistics and procurement, communications and public information, among other key sectors. Given the event is health related, a core team of specialized regional experts from the Caribbean Public Health Agency, CARICOM Secretariat, and the Pan American Health Organisation (PAHO) support CDEMA to provide technical guidance. The overarching policy level directives are provided by the CARICOM Council for Human and Social Development (COHSOD) and the Regional Coordination Mechanism for Health Security.5 The COHSOD which convenes regional ministers of social sectors serve as the direct channel to implement the regional decisions and coordinate response actions at the national levels. A two-way information flow to and from the RRM exists with the national disaster coordinators in members states, the CARICOM Secretariat Heads of Regional Institutions, and Caribbean Development Partner Group. Governments’ preparation to manage continuity of learning in the Caribbean was mixed. Governments in the Caribbean were swift in deploying continuity of education solutions, as has been the case globally (Cobo and Sanchez, 2020; World Bank, 2020b). In the survey, MOEs were asked to indicate their readiness for service continuity in several areas according to a four-point scale from “not at all prepared” to “very prepared,” using the definitions in Box 2 as an approximate guide. Figure 6 summarizes the MOEs 4 All Caribbean countries are eligible for membership in CDEMA. Currently there are 19 participating members: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, and Turks and Caicos Islands. 5 Further details on the regional coordination mechanism to provide guidance during health shocks is available at: https://www.cdema.org/covid19 and for disasters at: https://www.cdema.org/rrm. 23 Confidential responses, which shows considerable diversity in the self-reported preparation levels across countries as well as across different types of services. Box 2. Preparation Levels for Continuity of Service Delivery • Not at all prepared: no contingency plan in place, materials/resources had to be developed from scratch, fewer than 25 percent of population was able to be reached within 2 weeks of school closures. • A little prepared: basic contingency plans already in place, a few materials/resources available which could be applied or adapted, 25-50 percent reached within 2 weeks of school closures. • Moderately prepared: existing plans allowed for continuation of basic functions, readily available materials/resources could be used to reach more than 50 percent of population within 2 weeks of school closures, though disadvantaged populations may experience little or no access. • Well prepared: existing services continued into school closure period with little adaptation and only minor difficulty, majority of population including some disadvantaged groups reached within 2 weeks of school closures. Ministries reported weakest preparation on the pedagogical aspects of education continuity. The MOE respondents rated their preparation most highly for sustaining nutrition programs (82 percent “moderately prepared” or “well prepared”), adapting national assessments (67 percent), addressing needs for hygiene supplies and public health information (64 percent), and offering psychosocial support to students and teachers (64 percent). On the other hand, no respondent rated their Ministry as “well prepared” to provide resources and training to teachers and schools to deliver distance education, and respondents were about evenly divided between “a little” and “moderately” prepared. Interestingly, no respondent rated their ministry as “not at all prepared” on this dimension either. This contrast suggests that existing disaster contingency plans provided some baseline for distance delivery, but that the existing resources and plans were overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the disruption from COVID-19. In Haiti, Jamaica, Dominican Republic among other countries, functioning national school nutrition programs were in existence, before COVD-19 given the importance of this service for students from disadvantaged households and the positive effects on improving school attendance, cognitive development and health outcomes. A meta-analysis of studies on global school nutrition programs in 32 low – and middle-income countries showed positive impact on students’ enrolment, attendance, completion and learning scores (Gelli 2015). School nutrition programs are integral components of national social protection systems and this in some measure provides a platform to scale up and reorganize the distribution of meals during disasters and pandemics. The system for the distribution of hygiene kits post disasters is well established in the Caribbean through CDEMA, national disaster offices and non-governmental organizations, and this somewhat explains the higher level of preparations by the respondent MOEs in the areas of school nutrition and hygiene kits and public campaigns. The Caribbean in general has good coverage of primary health care and linked to this is public awareness around health issues. According to responses from the MOEs the aspects of hygiene kits, public health campaigns and psychosocial care were largely managed by the Ministries of Health. 24 Confidential Figure 6. Perceptions of Ministry's of Education level of preparation to deliver services Teacher training to deliver distance education 45% 55% Resources to schools and teachers to deliver distance education 50% 50% Curriculum prioritization 40% 10% 40% 10% Outreach and guidance to parents to support home instruction. 9% 45% 27% 18% Learning loss minimization 20% 40% 30% 10% Psychosocial support to students and teachers 9% 55% 18% 18% Hygiene kits and public health campaigns 18% 45% 36% National assessments 44% 22% 22% 11% Sustaining nutrition program 27% 55% 9% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % of respondents Well prepared Moderately prepared A little prepared Not all prepared Source: Survey to Ministries of Education Note. Responses are reported for The Bahamas, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago. Country strategies for distance delivery favored online education. Based on the survey from the MOEs, online methods to deliver distance education were universal at the primary and secondary levels, and widespread at other levels (Table 3). Mobile phones were the second most popular medium for delivery of distance education, especially at the primary and secondary education levels. Learning materials were the third most used means to deliver remote instruction, including take-home packages distributed mainly to students in household without access to technology tools. The use of learning packages, especially those delivered on a one-of basis restricts student and teacher interaction and places significant demand on caregivers to support learners. This remote learning method requires an active feedback loop between students and teachers on pedagogical contents of packages. Television was the fourth most used platform for distance education, and radio was the least utilized technology, in use by less than half of countries at every level. Table 3: Availability of Distance Learning Modalities by Level of Education ECE Primary Secondary Tertiary TVET Radio 27% 45% 36% 9% - Television 36% 82% 64% 9% - Learning packages 55% 82% 55% 18% 18% Mobile Phones 27% 64% 82% 45% 36% Online Teaching and 73% 100% 100% 73% 36% Learning Source: Survey to Ministries of Education in selected Caribbean countries Note: ECE – Early childhood education; TVET – Technical vocational education and training 25 Confidential These are individual percentages, read as follows: For ECE 73 percent of countries provided online learning. At the primary and secondary levels 100 percent of countries provided online learning, while for TVET only 36 percent of countries used this method. Mobile phones were used in 64 percent of countries to reach primary school students. However, the most popular strategies were not necessarily the most equitable when evaluated against students’ access to technology at home. Based on household survey data, 67.7 percent and 82.1 percent of households in Jamaica and Antigua and Barbuda, respectively, report having access to internet. Ownership of computers varies, with households in Saint Lucia registering 32.8 percent, in Jamaica 49.8 percent and in Antigua and Barbuda 73.5 percent. There is a wide disparity in possession of mobile phones in Caribbean homes with students of school age. Ownership of mobile phones range from 42.1 percent in Saint Lucia to 98.6 percent in Antigua and Barbuda. With the low penetration of fixed broadband in the region and limited ownership of computers, mobile devices are a major entry point to the internet for households. Although televisions were less used as a distance learning method, upwards of three- quarters of households in the region own this appliance.6 Ownership of radios, which were the least utilized, is low in the Caribbean, with 3 in 10 households in Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada and Saint Lucia claiming ownership of this device. Radio ownership in Jamaica is significantly higher at 73.6 percent based on household survey data. The low ownership of radios in 3 of the 4 countries for which data is available is surprising as the Caribbean lies in the hurricane belt and historically AM/FM channels have been used to transmit key weather and emergency related information. Given the near universal supply of online education at the primary and secondary levels in most countries, in Box 3 details on the tools and technologies used to deliver distance education through this medium are explained. Box 3. Online Learning Tools and Technologies in use during COVID-19 The use of online learning tools varies widely within countries and even within schools around the Caribbean. The main tools used are WhatsApp, websites of the Ministry of Education, Zoom, Google suite, email and Microsoft 365, as below. DOM DMA GRD GUY JAM KNA ATG SUR BRB TTO BHS VCT LCA BLZ WhatsApp MOE Website Zoom Google Suite Email Microsoft 365 The Government provides broad policy mandate on online education, however decisions on the tool, format and content is determined at the school level. In the final analysis the choice of online virtual learning tool is at the discretion of teachers. At the school level greater coordination on selection of online teaching and learning tools is required, based on defined metrics. At the policy level, strong direction on developing and mandating the use of national learning management system is essential, to facilitate targeted professional development for educators, to compile analytics to monitor teaching and learning, to design uniform pedagogical content, to ensure adherence to data protection and privacy, to guarantee equitable access and instruction to all grade levels 6 Television ownership based on household survey data in selected countries: Antigua and Barbuda (95.2 percent); Grenada (84.2 percent); Jamaica (94.6 percent); and Saint Lucia (93.1 percent). 26 Confidential including early childhood, technical vocational, and inclusion of students with special educational needs, and to provide an interface for parents. The use of communication tools like What’s App for remote learning is common due to pre -COVID-19 familiarity, however, despite its advantages there are shortcomings in the area of assessment, feedback, limitations for group synchronous activities and affordability for data intensive uses. Anecdotal evidence from caregivers and teachers identified challenges with telecommunication services, including internet networks performance, country wide coverage, electricity availability and indiscriminate power outages during peak periods. Policymakers need to determine their country specific needs and craft corresponding responses for coping in the immediate short term, while in tandem addressing issues around managing continuity and building resilience in education systems. Source: Survey to Ministries of Education About one in 10 households with children of school age in the Caribbean lack access to any of the tools and equipment to support remote learning. Inequalities in access to distance delivery methods, especially internet services, reinforces the need to use multiple mediums to deliver distance education and raises serious equity concerns about the primacy of online instruction. Despite the best efforts of governments, distance learning in its varied forms is not reaching all learners. In the Dominican Republic, 26.6 percent of students lack access to any remote learning medium. In the Bahamas, about one-third of students lack the resources for online learning – computer or smart device and internet. There are marked income disparities in access to remote learning. In Jamaica, 20.9 percent of children from the lower income tiers have access to both internet and computer compared to 73.3 percent of children at the top of the income distribution. Meanwhile, 54.6 percent of children from the lower income quintile have access to smartphones and internet compared to 85.9 percent of students from the highest quintile. In the absence of measures such as zero-rated content, data plans, hotspots, Mi-Fi devices, to vulnerable households to improve internet, affordability is a potential challenge. A mobile internet plan with average 7GB of data has a mean cost of US$30 per month.7 Dependent on the type of online tools in use and the number of children of school age in the household upgrades of data to meet these additional remote learning needs will increase spending on internet data plans. The outlays on this basic mobile data plan consumes on average 5 percent of annual income of an entry level worker employed in the formal sector in the region.8 Are Governments supplying remote learning in forms accessible to Caribbean households? A closer look at the distance learning modalities supplied by MOEs as evidenced by questionnaire responses alongside assets of households secured from household survey data, provides a clearer picture of demand. From Table 3, all MOE respondents provide remote learning through online means for primary and secondary level students. From the household survey data, one-quarter of student cohorts lack internet access, and about one-third lack the tools for online learning, namely smartphone, computer or tablet. About 2 in 10 students lacks both internet connection and the devices to enable participation in online learning. In the Caribbean, household’s ownership of computers varies widely with a high of seven of ten households in Antigua and Barbuda to just under two of ten households in Haiti. Mobile phones are more widespread, with 7 of 10 being smart devices, nevertheless the use of these phones as tool for remote learning is limited, as 55.2 percent of children have the essential complement of internet connection. In some cases, household access to internet connection is an issue of affordability, however, in some Caribbean countries 7 Compiled from available information available on websites of service providers on mobile internet plans on offer across the region 8 Computations derived from classifications of wages published in National Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure and Occupational Wage surveys. 27 Confidential it is an urban-rural divide. Providing internet coverage to rural areas is guided by economic considerations based on the rate of return on investment for telecommunications providers. Stable and reliable high quality internet speed and bandwidth to access remote learning imposes an added constraint. Figure 7 shows equipment owned by households in a wider cross-section of the Caribbean countries, to support distance education access during school closures from COVID-19. Figure 7. Assets to enable remote learning (in percent of population) 100 90 80 89 83 Percent of population 70 60 63 50 40 48 30 37 20 10 0 Television Internet Radio Computer Mobile Phone Source: Household Survey data for Antigua and Barbuda, Grenada, Jamaica and Saint Lucia; International Telecommunication Union (2019) for Belize, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Suriname. Data on access to distance learning is not consistently available, but indications are that instructional time was greatly reduced, even for children with good access to technology. Evidence from the United Kingdom suggests that in remote learning settings students are less engaged, complete less schoolwork than normal, and teachers are covering less of the curriculum (Lucas, Nelson, and Sims, 2020). In the Caribbean, the duration of face-to-face instruction is on average 5 hours per day. Learners participating in distance education through online learning tools largely follows regular class schedules. The use of communication tools for online learning such as WhatsApp, radio, and television has limited capabilities to capture data on student access and participation in remote learning. The analysis on the effectiveness of remote learning is constrained, as tracking of participation and assessment by schools are not systematically filtered upwards to the central MOEs to consolidate and analyze this information. Of the respondents to the survey on education continuity, four countries track student participation in remote learning and record on average 91 percent student engagement. There are significant inequalities in access to a supportive home environment for distance education, which is a critical input for continuity of learning. Caregivers are essential in providing resources and academic support, and the efficacy of households’ contributions are highly dependent on socioeconomic 28 Confidential background (Jaeger and Blaabaek, 2020). Higher household dependency ratios, limited access to digital technology, ability of caregiver to aid in learning and provide motivational support contribute to variations in educational attainment for children in low-income households (Hampden-Thompson and Galindo 2015; White 2018). In the United Kingdom, primary school students from advantaged household (parent with professional occupation with option to telework, two parents, own computer) completed 26 percent more schoolwork than peers from disadvantaged households during COVID-19 school closure period (Pensiero, Kelly and Bokhove, 2020). Achievement gaps linked to income and educational inequality is an enduring phenomenon, with the family’s socioeconomic background strongly affecting student’s attainment in school (Hanushek, Peterson, Talpey, Woessmann, 2019). Caribbean households in lower income quintiles have less favorable conditions for learning at home, based on findings from household surveys. These households have on average twice the number of children, more than double the proportion of adults with less than high school education, and significantly lower ownership of tools for remote learning, as compared to households at the top of the income distribution. This means that if disadvantaged household own resources to enable remote learning these are likely used on a shared basis by multiple students. In Jamaica, households in the lowest income quintile have on average 2.0 children enrolled in school compared to 0.6 children in the highest quintile. The ability of caregivers in disadvantaged groups to support remote learning is lower given the attainment of high school or higher education as compared to counterparts in higher income groups. About one-fifth and slightly more than one-half of these low-income households have access to internet/computer and internet/smartphone, respectively as compared to counterparts in upper income groups. Invariably school closures will widen pre-existing achievement gaps between children from vulnerable households and their peers (Meyer, Meissel and McNaughton, 2017). Survey results suggest that children at risk for dropout require greater attention as disasters affect student enrolment. Three-fifths of respondents to the MOE survey on education continuity during disasters and health shocks have measures to minimize student dropout. Policymakers have identified the lack of internet connection and devices as potential contributing factors to student’s unintentional exit from the system during COVID-19. In addition to the use of different distance learning modalities, countries have attempted to provide students especially from disadvantaged households with the enabling inputs for online learning. However, the unanticipated nature of school closures from COVID-19 and the vast demand for online tools restricts government’s ability to finance, procure and supply all students simultaneously. Formal early warning systems to identify students at risk of dropout are in embryonic stages across the Caribbean and poses a challenge in identifying and reaching these children. At the school level, guidance counselors where available, and attendance records are used to track students at risk for dropout, however, it is unclear how aggressively they and their households are supported to return to schools. Countries have identified education management information systems (EMIS) as the basis for early warning of students at risk for dropout. However, in most of Caribbean countries, EMIS are non-existent and where these exist, they are not up-to-date, and if they are current, they lack linkages with other government administrative databases. Keeping students enrolled is important, as students who exit school are less likely to return to continue their education, which compounds the cycle of intergenerational poverty (de Janvry, Finan, Sadoulet and Vakis, 2006; Kousky, 2016). One year into the COVID-19 pandemic, the countries utilizing distance education struggle with many of the same problems encountered at the start of the pandemic. This delay in improving distance education further erodes pre-pandemic learning gains, worsens learning loss and widens the achievement gaps of students from disadvantaged backgrounds. Schools in 50 percent of the countries reviewed in this paper 29 Confidential remain closed for in-person school-based learning. Box 4 provides an overview of continuity of education actions, including an update on the progress of reopening of schools for the new academic year. Box 4. Continuity of Education Responses Triggered by COVID – 19 The Bahamas prior to COVID-19 had the capacity for virtual learning beginning from September 2019. Online learning was developed as a solution for teacher shortages on the remote islands of the Bahamas. Resulting from this existing capacity, within one week of school closure from COVID – 19 on 25 March 2020, remote education was expanded. The virtual school and Bahamas Television Learning Channel provide 24 hours daily instruction for students. Two-thirds of students enrolled in pre-school to grade 12 have access to internet and devices to access virtual online schooling. The Bahamas is strengthening the capability for education in emergencies through key actions: (1) Policy on continuity of education in emergencies is in progress; (2) negotiations are ongoing to establish national e-learning platform; and (3) preliminary discussions to develop education management information system to support tracking of students at risk for dropout. In the short-term, teacher training to deliver distance education and outreach and guidance to parents are main areas for additional attention as remote learning evolves. Dominican Republic: Policymakers in the Dominican Republic were moderately well prepared to transition to distance education. The education sector support plan provided guidance on all aspects of continuity of learning. Policymakers utilized data to inform the provision of a range of services to households during the pandemic. An array of mediums and resources were used to supply psychosocial care and information on health and hygiene to families, with corresponding training of providers. The school nutrition program was sustained with delivery of 9 million food packages over a three-month period commencing on 23 March 2020. A virtual platform on the website of the Ministry of Education was the main mode of delivery for online distance education complemented by Google Classroom, Microsoft Teams, Zoom, WhatsApp among others. Online tools, radio, television, and mobile phones were used for all educational levels. About one million learning packages were delivered to early childhood and primary students. Almost 3 of 10 students nationally lack access to distance education in any form. Once examined by regions, access options range from a low of 18 percent to high of 64 percent. The advantage for the Dominican Republic is that data exists to inform decisions and find solutions to reach these learners. Jamaica: Policymakers in Jamaica implemented the education in emergency policy guidelines to manage all aspects of distance education, including psychosocial support, nutrition program for students on the conditional cash transfer – Program of Advancement Through Health and Education, – assessment, transportation, specific interventions for educational levels, online homeschooling, among other areas. Online tools, radio, television and mobile phones and learning packages were used to administer teaching and learning for all educational levels from early childhood, to technical vocational to tertiary. Online classes for remote education were convened on Zoom, and on online platforms made available by the MOE from external sources, allowing for independent and individualized learning. Programs for the early childhood level were available daily on the websites of the Early Childhood Commission and the Ministry of Education, Youth and Information. Special accommodations were available for students participating in high stakes exams – Primary Exit Profile (PEP), CSEC and CAPE. The combined use of mobile phones as a resource to follow-up with students and parents has worked in the favor of Jamaica to track participation of cohorts on radio instruction (95 percent of cohort) and television (90 percent), across educational levels. Despite this tracking of participation, assessment of learning outcomes for students using radio, television and in some cases the learning packages is severely lacking. Trinidad and Tobago is one of three countries (the others are Grenada utilizing MStar LSP; and the Dominican Republic) in the Caribbean utilizing a national Learning Management System for distance education during the pandemic. The School Learning Management System (SLMS) provides an interface for teachers and students, which allows educators to document, track, grade, report, upload resources, conduct teaching, and give feedback while delivering remote learning. In addition to the SLMS, the MOE has a functioning EMIS accessible to administrators, educators and parents, and this provides data on learning analytics and information tailored to 30 Confidential the category of user. The MOE has given teachers the option to use other online tools, including Edmodo, WhatsApp, email, Microsoft Teams and Google Classroom. The MOE was moderately prepared to provide teacher training and resources to school population for remote learning. Teachers were oriented to distance education with options to participate in various courses delivered as massive open online courses, blended learning, webinars among others. The MOE developed policies and guidelines to inform administration and monitoring of teaching and learning during the pandemic. These included: (1) Guidelines for teaching online and navigating the SLMS. (2) National Policy for upload and creation of student material. (3) National policy for teaching and learning online. (4) National policy on intellectual property and copyright. The use of online tools, mainly the SLMS, for distance education highlighted the problems of access to devices and internet connections by teachers and students. This prompted the MOE to engage with the Telecommunications Authority, Ministry of Public Administration, and internet service providers to improve equity and inclusion and offer zero-rated access to the SLMS, live Classrooms and the websites of the MOE. The MOE explored a program to loan devices to teachers and students as the lack of immediate public funding hindered the procurement of additional devices. Timelines for closure, distance education and reopening of schools in the Caribbean March 2020 • School closures in all 16 Caribbean countries under review April 2020 • Commencement of distance education in all 16 countries June 2020 • Some schools reopened for review sessions with students participating in high stakes exams July – August 2020 • Summer Break • 5 months without face-to-face schooling for majority of Caribbean students. • Protocols for reopening of schools9 are available for most countries. • In-person instruction commences in Haiti on 10 and 17 August 2020 September 2020 • Schools reopen for in-person instruction in Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and Grenadines. • Distance education commences in Belize (Pre-primary and Primary) and Trinidad and Tobago • Hybrid model is used in Barbados and Grenada • Prolonged summer vacation and delayed resumption of education in the Dominican Republic and Jamaica October 2020 • Distance education commences in Belize for students in secondary level education and Jamaica for all levels. 9 National protocols and guidelines for safe reopening of schools in Barbados, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago are available at: available at https://www.unicef.org/lac/en/protocols-and-guidelines-reopening-schools and for Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Dominica. 31 Confidential • Hybrid Model begins in Sint Maarten, The Bahamas, and Suriname November 2020 • Distance education resumes in the Dominican Republic. • Jamaica pilots face to face instruction in 17 schools. • Guyana begins phased reopening of public schools for students in grades 10 – 12 on a rotational schedule. Source: Survey to Ministries of Education; and MOE websites What do we know about Distance Education in the Caribbean during COVID-19? The main findings suggest that while distance education solutions have been implemented, data to better monitor and evaluate student’s access, participation and learning in these mediums is limited. International evidence suggests children are not completing the scheduled instruction hours per day, and teachers are not covering the entire curriculum (Pensiero et al., 2020). While data on the inputs for distance learning (parents’ ability, time, resources; school supply of learning) can be approximated from various sources, data on the outputs and outcomes from remote learning are severely lacking. Distance learning options for early childhood education and work-based learning for technical vocational education and training cohorts are inadequate. More aggressive attention on inclusion of students with disabilities is required. Incorporating assistive technologies, tutoring and other measures into distance learning can be revolutionary for children with disabilities and special educational needs. In Haiti, private schools account for 80 percent of education supply. The economic shock encountered by households will limit their ability to invest in education and this in turn will constrain the ability of private schools to function, with most not likely to survive post-COVID-19. Support to private schools and students at these institutions require special attention during the pandemic and after to ensure supply of quality education spaces, to minimize student dropout and reduce number of children out-of-school. There are factors unique to natural disaster and to health shocks which requires different approaches within strategies and policies for continuity of education. Distance education during episodes of health shocks requires strict adherence to physical distancing protocols in school settings, for student public transportation, frequent hand washing, wearing of masks and guidelines on sharing of equipment and resources in laboratories, workshops, libraries and other common spaces. After natural disasters schooling can be delayed due to physical damage and destruction of school infrastructure; inability to get to schools due to inaccessible road networks from fallen trees, landslides, flooding, land slippage, loss of bridges; and lack of electricity and running water. The widespread transition to distance education on account of school closure from COVID-19 raises the prospects of how to adapt this approach for other education in emergency situations such as natural disasters. It is certain that the use of distance education by online means and television could be challenging as during and after natural disasters the supply of essential telecommunication services are intermittently disrupted due to damage and destruction of aerial and underground equipment. Distance education as a tool for teaching and learning after disasters is not common in the Caribbean. Following past disasters, the mode of ‘replacement or interim’ education practiced in the Caribbean is relocation of students to other islands to attend schools, while those in their home countries are shut. This practice of displacement is a coping response for education continuity. The recent storm events from 2017 in the Caribbean saw an exodus of students from Dominica moving to the neighboring French Islands, to Antigua and Barbuda, and Saint Kitts and Nevis to enroll in schools; Barbudian students after Hurricane Irma were all relocated to Antigua, while Bahamian students following Hurricane Dorian in 2019 32 Confidential were relocated from Grand Bahama and Abaco to New Providence and other islands of the Bahamas. The movement of people after disasters, especially children is complicated and has its share of challenges, which requires regional collaboration around free movement of people, data sharing and recognition of credentials. Ultimately building back education infrastructure better than before natural disasters protects the rights and safety of children. Given the fiscal constraints of governments, the rise in frequency and devastation of storm events, the resultant impact on the existing stock of public infrastructure and the time horizon to build resilience into existing and new education infrastructure, managing continuity of education has to address the migration of children across countries to access schooling. Regional governments in updating the regional Road Map on School Safety has flagged protection of children in host countries as a component of school safety. Ongoing work by the Organization for Migration and the OECS will address some of the broad human mobility issues arising from disaster-induced environmental migration. The experiences from the COVID-19 pandemic provides policymakers with lessons to finetune response policies for coping, managing recovery and improving and accelerating education during and after shocks. The ability to use different types of teaching and learning modalities during and immediately following natural disasters and health shocks are dependent of the severity of the event, and availability of enabling infrastructure. COVID-19 has shown the importance of telecommunication services – internet, radio, television – as inputs for remote learning. There are clear distinctions in the type of remote learning modalities best suited for natural disasters, dependent on type of event and for health shocks. An analysis on strengths and weakness of face-to-face instruction, online learning, audio/visual, mobile phone, learning packages, and blended approaches during and after shocks to education systems, and proposed recommendations and implementation strategies are components for revised education continuity and contingency plans. To achieve effective distance education requires addressing systemic pre-existing challenges in education systems as evidenced by data on learning outcomes from CSEC, CAPE, harmonized test scores of the HCI and Learning Poverty which indicates that 51 percent of 10-year-olds in LAC unable to read an age-appropriate text. The evidence is clear that the current mode of distance learning is an inferior substitute for school- based learning. In the countries that have reverted to online teaching for the 2020/21 academic year they have not effectively devised targeted remediation programs to urgently and strategically close achievement gaps and accelerate learning. While the Caribbean rates high on HCI, this co-exists with severe pockets of learning poverty, an indication that more emphasis is needed to arrest the debilitating long term effects on economic gains, competitiveness and productivity. Continuity of Learning Options in Natural Disasters The risk of infectious diseases increases in the aftermath of disasters. Major damage and destruction of housing stocks which causes internal displacement and resettlement in crowded spaces lacking adequate water and sanitation facilities are breeding grounds for disease outbreaks. After disasters the incidence of water borne infectious diseases (dysentery, cholera, typhoid, gastrointestinal illnesses) and water vectored (dengue, yellow fever, malaria, leptospirosis) increases (Baez, de la Fuente and Santos, 2010). Access to water, sanitation and hygiene are essential services for education continuity after disasters. The evidence of learning loss resulting from time away from school during COVID-19 provides an urgency for getting children back into schools with limited delays post disasters. In the Caribbean, studies on the 33 Confidential education system recovery models after disasters is non-existent. Findings from the Texas Public school system following Hurricane Ike in 2008, found major risk factors, years later, associated with disruptions in attendance of students from economically disadvantaged groups (Lai, Esnard, Wyczalkowski, Savage, et al., 2019). In the Caribbean, there is a need to find innovative temporary learning solutions during the coping and managing disaster recovery phases for all children, but especially for low-performing schools and students from disadvantaged groups to reduce the deleterious risks to learning outcomes. Policymakers have experimented with temporary alternatives; however, these require better planning and development of a sustainable framework for future use. In Haiti, after the 2010 earthquake donor financing supported the construction of temporary schools which in the end were not temporary as these structures were in use more than 5 years later, with severe challenges for dispensing quality education. In the Bahamas and Barbuda, students were relocated to neighboring islands for schooling, and this has its shares of school capacity constraints for host country. The type and intensity of natural disasters determines the education continuity solution. While remote learning has gained traction as a short-term education continuity policy response, while systems are addressing the health and safety issues in school spaces, avenues for localized community solutions holds promise. Recommendations for Continuity of Learning While the scale of the disruption from COVID-19 is without historical parallel in the Caribbean, lessons from the initial period of school closures are relevant not only for the (unknown) duration of COVID- related disruptions, but also for future interruptions from natural disasters and pandemics. The foregoing discussions have identified the peculiarity and differences inherent in pandemics and disasters which contributes to different responses to school closures. Pandemics and natural disasters present different approaches for continuity of learning. Distance education has been the short-term alternative to in-person instruction during pandemics, while for disasters it is improving the reliability of infrastructure for use despite shocks and stresses to the system. The layered approaches to respond to the different causes of school closures is a key aspect of resilience. The level of Learning Poverty and magnitude of key education indicators (dropout, repetition, overage, gender parity index, among others) prior to the shock event are determinants of education system resilience. The initial proficiency levels of the key actors of the education system contribute to their capacity to cope with the shock and continue teaching and learning during the period of school closure. Invariably students who were low-performing students prior to the shock event and who require the most learning support during the disasters and pandemics will fare the worse in the absence of targeted mitigation measures. At the macro-level, countries with more low-achieving students as indicated by the rate of Learning Poverty, need to develop foolproof strategies to bridge the learning gaps in the coping and managing continuity phases of the shock event and prioritize education system resilience to stem the inherent learning crisis. Distance education is an inferior substitute to in-person instruction. For the Caribbean this is evidenced by the findings in the previous sections. In the coping stage of disaster and pandemics distance education is an alternative solution. During this phase it is important to prioritize teaching content with emphasis on an abridged curriculum with specific attention to priority topics. However, the goal is to get children safely back into schools and learning at full capacity. Once schools re-open and in-person instruction 34 Confidential commences education systems have an important role to implement strategies to reduce the impact of school closures on learning outcomes. Of utmost priority in managing continuity is the focus on foundational skills, the assessment of learning loss, and implementation of measures to reverse gaps in learning achievement such as remediation and accelerated learning. Children from low-income households are at a distinct disadvantage during education in crises situation and targeted approaches to address their special education needs are required. The proposed mitigation strategies to manage education continuity once schools reopen for low-achieving students are: (1) identification of students falling behind in learning and those at risk of dropping out of school; (2) development and implementation of school improvement plans; and (3) remediation measures for basic numeracy and literacy, and tutoring. Addressing these issues of learning inequality are core steps to lessen learning loss, reduce Learning Poverty and begin the process to build and sustain education system resilience. Strengthen initiatives to provide disadvantaged households with remote learning. Governments in the Caribbean, through partnerships with telecommunications providers, have negotiated to zero-rate content and provided students from vulnerable households with tablets and in some cases stipends to cover data plans. Despite the best efforts of policymakers these households are impeded by other factors – internet and electricity coverage, access to social safety net programs, caregivers’ involvement in learning, among others. The provision of devices and data plans are short-term ‘coping’ solutions, however, as governments rethink education and exploit opportunities to ‘improve, accelerate’ and build resilience into education systems, the experience of COVID-19 should be used to identify constraints to quality, equity, teacher effectiveness, and inclusion to minimize reversals in gains in closing achievement gaps and lessen Learning Poverty. Solutions to ‘manage continuity’ and set the foundation for ‘improving and accelerating’ are under development at the regional level through the global initiative to connect every school to the internet, the Caribbean digital transformation project, and national initiatives across countries (Box 5). The scale of the disruptions to education systems from pandemics and disasters demands requires 360-degree review and reimagining teaching and learning practices. Box 5. Initiatives to improve access to technology in education Educational institutions are best suited to impact digital literacy skills to children from disadvantaged households. GIGA10 an initiative launched by UNICEF and the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) in September 2019 is a digital public good platform to connect every school to the internet. In the Eastern Caribbean 9 of 11 countries have signed up to GIGA and have completed mapping of school connectivity. The Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) Commission has regional implementation oversight for this initiative on behalf of Member States. Technological infrastructure is as important as physical infrastructure for education. The World Bank-financed Caribbean Digital Transformation Project (World Bank 2020a) aims to expand access to digital technologies, services and skills in selected countries in the Eastern Caribbean. The main components are: (1) Development of enabling environment through legal and regulatory reform in telecommunications, digital financial services, and cybersecurity, data protection and privacy. (2) Creation of digital government infrastructure, platforms and services to support public sector modernization and service delivery. (3) Digital skills and technology adoption through workforce development and training in digitally enabled professions and expanded access to digital services for students, teachers and vulnerable groups. 10 Details on GIGA, available at: https://www.unicef.org/innovation/giga 35 Confidential Telecommunications providers in the Caribbean have improved internet connectivity to benefit education sector, through expansion in the high-speed long-term evolution mobile wireless data network, in some cases by connecting rural areas. Through partnerships with MOEs, these companies have tailored support to the sector with subsidized data plans or free access to online learning platforms, e-libraries and other zero-rated education websites. Prioritize the role of, and support for, teachers in the maintenance of learning during and after a disaster. The findings of the MOE survey highlighted the need for greater focus on teacher preparation and support, as well as additional assistance from development partners in this area. During periods of disasters and school closures, teachers need to be supported in three key areas: in their own psychosocial resilience, in delivering effective instruction, and in the use of technology (World Bank, 2020b). The novelty of remote learning and the pedagogical demands on educators requires training reoriented to delivering, monitoring, and assessing learning through varied channels. Disasters and pandemics are unique and could require different modalities to maintain learning, nonetheless, improving and accelerating systems to support education continuity requires a diversity of options to reduce the disruptive effects on learning emanating from school closures. At the school level, distance education provides opportunities to remotely match the effective teachers with students with the most educational needs, especially those from vulnerable households. Matching students from disadvantaged households with effective teachers is shown to improve their achievement (Hanushek et al., 2019). Distance education also provides varied opportunities for teacher professional development through mentoring, peer learning, and sharing of best practices, which have positive effects on teacher performance (Rockoff, 2008). Education systems can recalibrate the challenges of the pandemic to opportunities to improve effectiveness of teachers and school leaders to benefit students. Monitor learning to devise remedial education solutions, reduce learning loss, and prevent increases in Learning Poverty. Monitoring of teaching and learning provides clear indicators on who is attending, what they are learning, how much time they are spending on learning and how effective are teachers in delivering quality instruction. At the same time, measures to teach students at the right level, training of teachers to deliver distance education and greater outreach and support to parents are key ingredients to improve the delivery of distance education in the immediate short term. The development and strengthening of learning management systems and EMIS are powerful tools to manage the data functions at the school, education and wider government levels to inform future actions. Making EMIS a complete tool requires collection and inclusion of up-to-date information on the physical conditions of schools, to guide decision making related to the quality, safety and condition of education infrastructure. Even if distance learning can never substitute perfectly for in-person education, governments have many avenues for improvement and acceleration. The following are general considerations to address the key educational challenge of distance education and learning loss. (1) Recognize that the long-term effects of learning loss on future productivity and economic growth may justify increased outlays on education in the short to medium run, even in the context of economic recession. (2) Assess learning loss through customized assessments and devote time and resources to remedial programs including tutoring, accelerated programs and other specialized interventions for students, once face-to- face instruction resumes, to compensate for learning loss. (3) Aggressively pursue students at risk of dropout and formulate academic and support programs, with options for individualized instruction where feasible to get them back in and stay in school. (4) Create alternative learning pathways for vulnerable students through employment and skills training programs. (5) Develop a suite of continuous professional 36 Confidential development and coaching for teachers and school leaders to improve effectiveness. Additionally, rethink the course content, technical and pedagogical skills, and teaching practicum for initial teacher training programs, to address the unique requirements for teaching and learning during education in emergencies. (6) Develop resilient social protection systems to complement education. (7) Provide parents with the skills to support homeschooling in the absence of direct teacher assistance for learning, to ease the burden on students for self-managed distance education activities. (8) Develop creative distance education solutions for remote regions in Suriname, Guyana and Haiti with low electricity coverage within households. (9) Build on the lessons and innovations from education in emergencies and continuously improve systems to create safe learning environment for students. Learning loss worsens the longer schools are shut and the economic repercussions accrue more deeply to students from disadvantaged households. Building resilience into education systems to make them better than they were before is a priority action to improve performance of disadvantaged students and close student achievement gaps. Assess education systems and form national, subnational and regional partnerships for collaboration and coordination. The recurrent devastation afflicting Caribbean economies from 2015 compounded by the COVID-19 pandemic provides a platform to comprehensively review educational progress with a view for reform. For education system to effectively plan for and respond to disasters requires multi-sector engagement and coordination at national and subnational government levels. This national coordination mechanism somewhat exists in most countries with the high-level disaster committees, however, the level of focus afforded to the individual sectors such as education to provide a timely response after the shock is deficient. At the regional level, the time is apt for Caribbean economies to address the learning crisis exacerbated by the recurrent shocks to education systems and determine ways to improve and accelerate education. A detailed assessment of education systems will provide critical information on learning outcomes, existing challenges, lessons learnt and stocktaking on progress on the Sustainable Development Goals. Emanating from this assessment countries will be better equipped to develop strategies to minimize learning loss, improve education quality, equity, equality and reorient teaching and learning to prepare students for the future of work. Countries have much to gain by sharing best practices and innovative approaches across borders. To date, with COVID-19 regional collaboration in education has been limited, except for projects within the purview of the OECS for their Member States. Reimagining education infrastructure to lessen effects from diverse external shocks is at the core of building resilience in the sector. In the next section recent country experiences with natural disasters, the effects on school infrastructure, and policy guidance on school safety are reviewed. The COVID-19 health shock has introduced new dimensions to education infrastructure linked to physical distancing, stringent water, sanitation, hygiene and ventilation specifications, and wider use of technology. 37 Confidential 5. Education Infrastructure This section reviews the impact of natural disasters on learning, recent Caribbean country experiences on the effects of natural disasters on education infrastructure, including those of Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Sint Maarten, and Dominica. The analysis considers not only the immediate damage to or destruction of school buildings, but also the implications of the use of schools as shelters in the period following a disaster. The paper takes stock of the region’s experience to date in adopting and implementing the Antigua and Barbuda Declaration on School Safety in the Caribbean. It examines regional and international best practices on cost-effective methods of building and retrofitting schools that are resilient to disasters, especially hurricanes, and on alternatives to the use of schools as shelters in the aftermath of disasters. As the effects of climate change worsen, Caribbean countries will continue to be affected by global warming and the resultant growth in natural disasters. The impacts of climate change on small island economies will test their resilience with damage to infrastructure, displacement of people, and economic losses in key sectors. The incidence of disasters over the last ten years has highlighted the damage to critical infrastructure, in terms of economic costs and to some extent time losses. However, there is limited evidence on the quantification of the impacts of natural disasters on education systems. Impact of Natural Disasters on Learning The Caribbean’s exposure to natural disasters including floods, hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, among others have an impact on human capital accumulation; however quantitative evidence on this link is lacking. Evidence from the international literature identifies detrimental and long-term outcomes on education, with indirect effects on public sector finances, prices, and household income (Baez, de la Fuente and Santos, 2010). According to Baez et al., (2010), periods of food insecurity, reduced access to health care and loss of complementary goods, services and loss of access to infrastructure following natural disasters can potentially have long-lasting effects on children’s accumulation of human capital. Natural disasters have deleterious consequences on nutrition with observed increases in malnutrition and subsequently stunting in children (Alderman, Hoddinott and Kinsey, 2006). The passage of Hurricane Gilbert in Jamaica and the destruction of root crops and livestock caused a significant change in the dietary intake of Jamaicans. There was a noticeable increase in live births neural tube defects 11 to 18 months after Hurricane Gilbert (Duff and Cooper, 1994). This occurrence in babies was due to reduced intake of folate by women in the periconceptional period.11 In general, the coping strategies of households to cushion the economic shock of disasters has been shown to reduce households’ expenditure on educational inputs, cause a drop in governments’ education investments, delay enrolment in early childhood programs and increase student dropout (World Bank, 2020c). The foregoing evidence on the indirect impacts of natural disasters on learning, validates ex ante and ex post policy actions to improve education infrastructure, given increasing prevalence in the Caribbean. 11 According to Duff and Cooper (1994), the periconceptional period is an 18-week period which starts 12 weeks before conception to 6 weeks after conception. Steegers-Theunissen, Twight, Pestinger and Sinclair draws the same conclusions on the effects on long-term health of babies, however the periconceptional phase is 5 to 6 months. 38 Confidential Recent Disaster Events Effects on Education infrastructure The Caribbean has a high exposure to natural hazards, above average event frequency, and greater risk to assets and well-being as a share of GDP (Hallegatte, Rentschler, and Walsh, 2018). The most common hazard occurrences include landslides, floods, hurricanes, droughts and to a lesser extent volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and fires. Natural disasters particularly tropical storms and hurricanes have had devastating effects on Caribbean economies. The impacts on key sectors of tourism and agriculture, education and health facilities, and transportation and telecommunications networks have led to reversals in economic and social gains (Muñoz and Ötker, 2018). In education, the hurricane season (June – November) starts near the end of one academic year, in the main examination period, and ends in the middle of the first term of the new academic year, crucial periods in the education cycle. The development and implementation of multisector policies, protocols and metrics to build resilience are important to mitigate the economic and social costs and losses arising from climate change and natural disasters. Between 1950 – 2014, there were 148 disaster events with estimated losses of US$52 billion and significant impacts on economic and social development (Acevedo, 2016; EM-DAT, 2020). In 2017 for example, economic losses for Anguilla, Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, Sint Maarten and Turks and Caicos in the aftermath of Hurricanes Irma and Maria were estimated at US$5.4 billion (ECLAC, 2018). The stock of school infrastructure in the Caribbean has been constructed using older building codes and regulations, lack adequate maintenance and periodic inspection for structural risks, and this increases the vulnerability of these buildings to multiple natural hazards. The volume of schools destroyed or damaged in recent disasters in Grenada (73 of 75 schools, Hurricane Ivan), Dominica (136 of 163 schools, Hurricane Maria), Haiti (4,268 of 17,800 schools and MOE headquarters, earthquake) point to weaknesses in existing architectural structures (Table 4). The evidence on learning loss in the previous section, on account of time away from school reinforces the importance of improving and accelerating school safety to build resilience in education infrastructure. In the traffic light section of this paper, a prioritization program for retrofitting and replacement of unsafe schools is proposed as a building block to track school infrastructure resilience. Table 4. Economic and Educational Losses from Natural Disasters in Caribbean 2004 – 2019 Economic Damage to Education Event Country Losses (in Infrastructure (number Children Affected School Closure Impacts (year) affected percent GDP) of schools/ US$) Hurricane Dorian Bahamas 25 45 of 175 total 10,546 (primary and Grand Bahama 7 weeks (September buildings damaged (of secondary level) of Abaco > 8 weeks 2019) these 7 were 57,235 total Displacement of students destroyed)/ students to other islands of the US$ 72.4 million Bahamas. Hurricane Irma Sint Maarten 797 US$ 56.4 million 700 children in early Public schools were closed (September ECE facilities were childhood facilities. for 4 – 6 weeks. Private 2017) worse affected with 17 schools were closed for 2 percent destroyed and weeks. 37 percent damaged. Migration of students to other countries was widespread. Hurricane Maria Dominica 259 136 of 163 educational By 29 October 2017, By mid- November 2017, (September facilities were 95 percent of 36 percent of schools had 2017) damaged. (Of this: reopened. 39 Confidential Economic Damage to Education Event Country Losses (in Infrastructure (number Children Affected School Closure Impacts (year) affected percent GDP) of schools/ US$) Minor Repairs - 62; students had no By 15 September 2020, Partially damaged - 52; access to schooling. some schools have not High damage 67)/ US$ been rebuilt and continue 77 million to share space at other schools resulting in shift system and reduced instruction hours for both schools utilizing facility. Displacement of students to other countries (French Territories, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, among others). Hurricane Irma Antigua and 11 4 of 4 schools were 410 students (100 Students from Barbuda (September Barbuda damaged on Barbuda percent) relocated to Antigua and 2017) enrolled in schools. Earthquake Haiti 100 4268 schools of 17,800 More than one-half Access to schooling after (January 2010) and MOE Headquarters of students in Haiti the earthquake was more / US$626.7 million (of 2.2 million acute for those in national student displacement camps. 600 population) were schools and 225 temporary out of school one learning spaces reopened year after the on 5 April 2010. earthquake, either as a result of the disaster or prior system challenges Hurricane Erika Dominica 90 23 schools affected (Of 3,420 students 60 percent of schools (August 2015) this 13 damaged, 2 affected (25.8 reopened on 14 September destroyed)/ US$4 percent of primary 2015, which was 2 weeks million and secondary beyond the official start school population) date for the new academic year. Schools that were damaged, without water and the three used as shelters were not opened. Source: Deopersad, C., Persaud, C., Chakalall, Y., Bello, O. 2020; EM-DAT, 2020; Post Disaster Needs Assessment Dominica, 2015 and 2017; Government of Haiti, 2020; World Bank, 2018a The policy of using schools as the main choice for emergency shelters, and the delays in returning these buildings to substantive use in the aftermath of disasters, prolongs the educational losses from disasters. Above average damage to and destruction of housing during Hurricanes Irma and Maria, forced homeowners unable to secure private alternatives to remain in shelters for extended periods. The use of these education facilities as shelters delay the resumption of teaching and learning, as seen in the case of Dominica Post Tropical Storm Erika (Table 4). Months after Hurricane Dorian in the Bahamas in 2019 and Hurricane Maria in Dominica in 2017, temporary shelters were still in use by displaced residents. Some countries in the Caribbean have started finding alternative solutions through the construction of standalone emergency shelters and improving the housing stock. The use of schools as temporary shelters impinges on basic priorities for the education sector in the aftermath of emergencies, which are to minimize disruption to teaching and learning by promptly and safely returning schools to educational functions. 40 Confidential Antigua and Barbuda Declaration on School Safety in the Caribbean The Caribbean Road Map and the Antigua and Barbuda Declaration on School Safety acts as the guiding documents for the Caribbean Safe School Initiative. In working towards the attainment of resilience in education, countries have adopted the Antigua and Barbuda Declaration of School Safety in the Caribbean. This Declaration furthers the implementation of the Worldwide Initiative on School Safety, the Comprehensive Safe School Framework (CSSF), and the Model Safe School Program for the Caribbean, to reduce hazard risk and build resilience in education infrastructure. Caribbean Countries utilize the CSSF as a guide to develop, implement and monitor disaster management policies and plans for safe schools. It is a broad approach at addressing risks from all hazards to the education sector, utilizing three core pillars of school safety, including: (1) Safe learning facilities; (2) School disaster management; and (3) Disaster risk reduction and resilience education.12 Box 6 lists the main regional and international guiding documents on education infrastructure and school safety in the Caribbean. The agreements to which Caribbean countries have endorsed – the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, among others – collectively highlights the region’s commitment to building resilience. Box 6. Guidance documents of relevance to Education Infrastructure World Bank Global Program for Safer Schools and Roadmap for Safer Resilient Schools, supports the design 2014 of intervention strategies to improve safety and resilience of school infrastructure at risk from natural hazards, to enhance quality of learning environment Co mp re h e n s i ve D i s a ste r M an age me nt S t rate gy an d P ro gra m m i n g Fra m ewo r k 2 0 1 4 – 2 0 2 4 Integrates comprehensive disaster risk management (CDM) into development planning at national and regional levels in four priority areas: (i) Institutional strengthening; (ii) Knowledge management for CDM; (iii) 2014 Mainstreaming of CDM into key sectors and (iv) Building and sustaining community resilience. Sustainable Development Goals 2030 Goal 4 – Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education opportunities for all. 4.a Build and upgrade education facilities that are child, disability and gender sensitive and provide safe, non- violent, inclusive and effective learning environments for all 2015 Goal 13- Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts 13.3 – Improve education, awareness raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early warning. Sendai Framework of Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 – 2030 2015 Target D – Substantially reduce disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services among them health and educational facilities and develop their resilience by 2030. Comprehensive School Safety Framework (CSSF): An approach to reducing risk from hazards to the education sector by addressing three pillars of school safety: 2017 (i) Safe learning facilities; (ii) School disaster management; (iii) Risk reduction and resilience education. Caribbean Safe School Initiative (CSSI) The framework to advance school safety in the Caribbean, it was launched during the first Caribbean Safe School Ministerial Forum on April 3, 2017. Key developments linked to the CSSI include: o 2017 First Caribbean Ministerial School Safety Forum 2017 o 2017 Antigua and Barbuda Declaration on School Safety o 2017 Regional Road Map on School Safety 5 o 2019 Second Ministerial School Safety Forum o Updated Caribbean Roadmap on School Safety The three pillars of the CSSF and the required enabling environment are elaborated in the Caribbean Roadmap for School Safety. This roadmap was launched in 2017 during the inaugural Caribbean Ministerial Forum on school safety, as a part of the broader Caribbean Safe school Initiative. The result 12 Antigua and Barbuda Declaration on School Safety in the Caribbean, 2017 is available at: https://eird.org/americas/safe-school-forum/docs/declaration.pdf 41 Confidential was the signing of the Antigua and Barbuda Declaration on School Safety by 12 countries in 2017, followed by an additional 6 at the Second Ministerial Forum in 2019. 13 The Caribbean Roadmap on School Safety has a key role to define the priority areas of action and track multi-annual progress. A Ministerial Forum comprised of Ministers of Education and their representatives meet biennially to discuss progress, lessons learned and bottlenecks in the implementation of the Caribbean Roadmap on School Safety. The Forum convened in 2019 deliberated upon progress achieved on the 2017 Roadmap, the results of which are summarized in Box 7. In each of the four core pillars of school safety elaborated in the Roadmap more than one-half of country respondents reported “significant progress and achieved”. The areas requiring greater attention at the national level include development of enabling policies, national plans and strategies; coordination among stakeholders; and review and updating of disaster risk management components in curriculum (CDEMA, 2019). At the national level countries have made the most progress on the review and development of multi-hazard school safety plans and guiding documents; human and financial resources; and provision of disaster risk management training for school staff, family, and community. At the regional level less has been achieved overall, but the most significant accomplishments are in coordination among stakeholders and deployment of human and financial resources. At the regional level, greater emphasis is needed in improving performance on disaster risk management training of school staff, family and community; inclusion of disaster risk management in curriculum; and development of multi-hazard school safety plans, guiding documents and safe school standards. At both the national and regional levels, the core education area of integrating disaster risk into curricula is lagging. 13 The Antigua and Barbuda Declaration on School Safety was endorsed by 12 Caribbean countries in 2017 including: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, British Virgin Islands, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Guyana, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Turks and Caicos and by a further 6 countries in 2019, Curacao, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, Sint Maarten Suriname. 42 Confidential Box 7. National Level: Progress on Caribbean Roadmap on School Safety Enabling Environment Pillar 1: Safe Learning Facilities No progress % 24% No progress % 20% Some Progress % 18% Some Progress % 17% Significant Significant 26% 32% Progress % Progress % Achieved % 32% Achieved % 30% 0% 20% 40% 0% 20% 40% % of Countries % of Countries Pillar 2: School Disaster Management Pillar 3: Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Education No progress % 5% No progress % 25% Some Progress % 39% Some Progress % 20% Significant Significant 14% 32% Progress % Progress % Achieved % 43% Achieved % 23% 0% 20% 40% 60% 0% 20% 40% % of Countries % of Countries Source: CDEMA 2nd Ministerial Forum Report, April 2020 Note: Progress on Caribbean Roadmap on School Safety is compiled from 11 of 12 countries signing on to the Antigua and Barbuda Declaration in 2017. The 12 country signatories are: Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Cuba, Guyana, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Turks and Caicos Islands, British Virgin Islands. The Caribbean Roadmap on School Safety was revised at the 2nd Ministerial Forum in 2019 to include lessons learned since it was first launched in 2017. The main changes are presented in Table 5. 43 Confidential Table 5. Caribbean Roadmap for Safe Schools 2019 Revisions Priority Areas Updated Actions Develop enabling - Develop protocol to govern the movement among countries of policies and national children in emergencies. plans and strategies - Develop national model of safe school policy and guidance Enabling Environment document to support policy development - Expand geographical scope of the safe school subcommittee to facilitate collaboration among the wider Caribbean. - Review legal and policy framework to ensure School Safety is included. - Monitor implementation of the national school safety policy. Enhance and - Collect and review existing tools, analyze the purpose and Pillar 1. Safe Learning Facilities implement a expected outcomes of each and determine the most suitable ones standardized school for application by countries in the Caribbean and create a regional safety assessment repository of the recommended tools. Compile and promote good practices for safe school standards and Develop a safe school - standard establish minimum standards to secure school safety, captured in a regional repository of recommended tools. - Ensure safe school standards include specificities for special education centers. - Develop a regional consensus on the concept of ‘safe learning facility’ in the context of the Caribbean. Review and develop - Assessment of current national structures, systems and human Disaster multi-hazard school resources to be used as the baseline for designing the regional safety plans and framework, including child protection, health and environmental guiding documents footprint. Pillar 2. School - Integrating succinct ‘education in emergencies’ plans into the broader education sector plan, with consideration to child Management protection, health and environmental footprint. - Establish a mechanism to support schools in developing and testing school safety plans and build their capacity. - Develop, approve and implement a Safe School policy aligned with the national priorities and plans. Disaster Risk - Conduct a regional review of school staff, family and community Pillar 3. Risk Reduction and Management training curricula to establish the level to which disaster risk reduction is for school staff, included. family and - Compile resources to support teacher training on subjects related Resilience Education community to disaster risk reduction and resilience and psychosocial support. - Establish a youth forum to advance disaster risk reduction and resilience education in the region. - Deliver regular teacher training pre-service and in-service, including the use of technology for distance education. - Engage civil society groups in public education activities and expand communication channels. Source: CDEMA 2nd Ministerial Forum Report, April 2020 44 Confidential Best Practices on Building and Retrofitting schools In the context of COVID-19, the average space per student in Caribbean classrooms is insufficient for effective physical distancing. Table 6 provides statistics on classroom dimensions and cost of school infrastructure in selected Caribbean countries. In LAC, Jamaica and Chile have the least classroom surface area per student, of 1.2 and 1.1 M2 per student, compared to 4 M2 per student in Finland (Gargiulio and Bardone, 2014). The compact nature of the physical space restricts teaching and learning interactions in normal times. The high student to teacher ratios and confined per student space allotment complicates the physical distancing requirements for school safety arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. In the absence of adequate per-student space to maintain physical distancing, governments will need to implement alternative measures to limit interpersonal contact and reduce disease transmission risk. These include improving indoor ventilation, moving classes outdoors when possible, converting existing space into additional temporary classrooms, staggering start and end times, alternating shifts or days, hiring additional teachers to reduce class size, blending distance and in-person learning, and isolating groups of students from one another (UNESCO, UNICEF, World Bank, WFP, and UNCHR, 2020). Table 6. Classroom Space for teaching and Learning – Selected Caribbean Countries Barbados Dominican Republic Jamaica Students per classroom 30 35 45 Classroom Surface area (in M2) 54 50 54 Space per student (in M2) 1.8 1.4 1.2 Unit cost of classroom (US$/ M2) 1,500 600 1,200 Source: Gargiulo, C. and Bardone, A. 2014. Learning on Twenty-First Century Schools. Note 6. Rethinking educational spaces to be resilience to disasters, climate change and pandemics requires developing a menu of policy responses on how best to cope, manage continuity, and improve and accelerate teaching and learning following these events. As policymakers reimagine education systems, understanding the future requirements of teaching and learning are paramount in shaping the future of school infrastructure resilience. On account of climate change, average temperatures are increasing with concomitant risks to health and well-being, disaster events are on the rise, all having impacts on education infrastructure. New evidence reveals that hotter temperatures during the academic year reduces the rate of learning. Data from the preliminary standardized assessment test (PSAT) on performance of United States students found that a one-degree Fahrenheit hotter school year reduces examination scores by 0.2 percent of a standard deviation or about 1 percent of an average student’s annual learning achievement (Park, Goodman, Hurwitz, and Smith, 2020). A school day with temperatures in the 90s Fahrenheit lowers attainment by one-sixth of a percent of a year’s worth of learning. Findings on student achievements on standardized assessments for 58 countries with corresponding weather and academic data found that the rate of learning declines with an increase in the number of hot school days, with larger effects for students from low-income groups (Park, Goodman, Behrer, 2020). The sustained effect of hotter school days over multiple school years leads to lower cumulative scores and achievement gaps for students. The study finds that air conditioning offsets most of the deleterious effects of heat on learning (Park et al., 2020), however students from low-income households are unlikely to reap these benefits due to inequities, thereby widening educational inequalities. In the Caribbean given the historically high cost of electricity -except in oil and gas producing countries- airconditioned classrooms are a luxury not afforded to majority of school age populations. The region has warm to hot local temperatures throughout the year with climate change progressively leading to mean warming in air and ocean surface temperatures (Stephenson, Vincent, Allen, Van Meerbeeck et al., 2014). This evidence on the impact of hot 45 Confidential temperatures on learning is informative for the Caribbean, and a point of consideration in education infrastructure to offset the disruptive effects on educational outcomes and human capital accumulation. Climate Smart School Infrastructure is a policy response for improving and accelerating resilience in education infrastructure. There is merit in incorporating cost-effective measures into school construction and management to minimize long- run operational and maintenance costs. These include selecting the appropriate construction materials; designing buildings and locating in safe areas to make use of natural lighting and ventilation; installing and incorporating energy and water efficiency solutions; utilizing rainwater harvesting and drainage systems to reduce flooding. The integration of exterior features such as plants, shading, and use of materials which limit the capture of heat on walls, roofs and grounds. Building resilience into existing and new education infrastructure requires combining risk reduction measures to address different types of events, including floods, storms, earthquakes, volcanoes, pandemics, and climates risks – heat waves, water scarcity among others. Maintenance of school infrastructure is an area of low priority in the Caribbean. The stock of public schools in the Caribbean are largely older than 20 years and are susceptible to natural hazards. ECLAC (2018) suggested that the damage to educational facilities on Sint Maarten during Hurricane Irma was due to deficient and poor construction methods. While maintenance extends the life of school buildings, in many instances public finances and technical staff are rarely assigned to this function. When schools are financed by regional and international development partners, the maintenance and supervision functions are not adequately transferred to the MOE when project units close, worsened further by information asymmetries within and between the school and central levels. A study undertaken by the IDB (2015) found of 3 Caribbean countries surveyed all identified maintenance of school buildings as not given priority attention. Refurbishment of deteriorated infrastructure was an area for priority action in 2 of the 3 countries. Delayed spending on maintenance leads progressively to higher long-term costs for rehabilitation and reduces property value. To address school maintenance and retain property value requires planning for: site selection; building design; use of appropriate sustainable and low maintenance building materials; construction techniques; and instituting and complying with scheduled maintenance and safety plans and structural audits of education facilities. Utilizing cost-effective methods of building and retrofitting schools that are resilient to disasters is an area for priority action. Policymakers in the Caribbean following disasters secure financing and technical assistance from development partners to rebuild critical infrastructure including schools to higher standards. The experiences from COVID-19 will provide new requirements and consideration for building and retrofitting of schools. Box 7 details regional and international experiences and lessons on cost- effective measures for building and retrofitting educational facilities to be resilient to natural disasters. Box 7. Lessons on cost-effective methods of building and retrofitting schools for resilience to disasters. Policymakers in the Caribbean have recognized the importance of investing in quality school infrastructure and have developed policy guidelines and governance structures to oversee the process. The regional experiences of Jamaica, Haiti, and Dominica are highlighted to shed light on ex ante cost-effective school infrastructure initiatives. The experiences of countries from around the world on building and retrofitting schools and built infrastructure to be resilient to natural disasters are also identified. The National Education Trust, and agency of the Government of Jamaica was created in 2010 to secure financial investments to build, retrofit, rehabilitate, and maintain education infrastructure. 46 Confidential In the aftermath of the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, and the damage and destruction of more than 4,000 schools, the MOE in collaboration with development partners drafted guidelines for education infrastructure. In Haiti more than 80 percent of education is supplied by the private sector and these reference documents first published in 2014 provides building standards, model plans, specifications, supervision tools and maintenance manuals to support rebuilding of education infrastructure. All reference documents provide specifications which meet standards for seismic and cyclone events. Technical professionals have been trained in the application of the standards to encourage compliance, regulation and harmonization of education infrastructure in Haiti. According to the MOE of Haiti, the 3 major disaster events between 2008 – 2016 (flood, earthquake, Hurricane Matthew) damaged more than 7,000 schools and destroyed more than 2,500 (Government of Haiti, 2020). This is more than one-half of the 17,800 school buildings in Haiti. The cumulative effects of these past disaster events magnify the weaknesses and vulnerabilities confronting the system, and the importance of regulatory and institutional frameworks to guide school infrastructure resilience. In Haiti, 80 percent of schools are private requiring strong policy guidance and oversight from the public sector to ensure children are in education infrastructure built to school safety standards able to withstand multiple hazards and the environment is conducive to achieving educational goals. Tropical Storm Erika in 2015 and Hurricane Maria in 2017 devastated the economy of Dominica. Policymakers created the Climate Resilience Execution Agency for Dominica to operationalize the vision for climate resilience across all sectors. To date, Dominica has passed legislation – Climate Resilience Act 2018 – to establish the agency, and drafted the National Resilience Development Strategy, which defines an integrated approach to attain the Sustainable Development Agenda by 2030. The effectiveness of the agency and Dominica’s efforts at climate resilience requires further time to mature and for the initiatives take root. The fiscal positions of governments in the Caribbean and the demand for quality education and by extension school facilities requires innovative financing models and cost-effective methods to maintain and expand the stock of education buildings. There are many international lessons on cost-effective methods of building and retrofitting schools that are resilient to natural disasters. The Japan – World Bank program for mainstreaming disaster risk management in developing countries is one such example. The program provides support to enhance resilience to natural disasters and link countries worldwide with Japanese and global technical expertise and best practices on DRM. The program has benefitted 68 countries since its inception. The education and social sectors in beneficiary countries (Peru, Kyrgyz Republic, the Balkans, Ethiopia, Jamaica, India, Morocco) have received technical assistance for risk identification, reduction, preparedness, financial protection and development of resilient infrastructure. The lessons on transformation of the New Orleans education system after Hurricane Katrina provides further lessons and best practices on building 360-degree resilience. Closing gaps in disaster resilience of the Caribbean’s school infrastructure stock The process to build more resilient school infrastructure in the Caribbean has made progress, but more aggressive attention is needed to develop, implement and monitor enabling national policies. The pace of progress on the core aspects of risk reduction and resilience in education including incorporation of disaster risk management into curriculum and training of school staff, caregivers and communities has been slow. The use of knowledge, innovative practices and education is essential to build and successfully promote a national and regional culture of safety and resilience. Poor people suffer disproportionately from natural hazards and health shocks as they are most often affected, lose more when hit and receive less support for recovery (Hallegatte, Vogt-Schilb, Bangalore, and Rozenberg, 2017). 47 Confidential Reducing asset and well-being losses through disaster risk mitigation and improving resilience in the education sector are important policy priorities. The policy responses to allow teaching and learning to be carried out in safe spaces during and after disasters and health shocks include: (1) Improving the resilience of existing building to multiple hazards by undertaking school safety assessments and prioritizing the retrofitting and construction of schools most at risk to improve school safety and protect the well-being of students. (2) Building skills for resilience and disaster risk reduction aimed at building back stronger, faster and more inclusively post-disaster. Focus on skills development to support safe site selection, school safety assessments, methods to construct and retrofit schools in line with national building codes, regulations and safe school standards, and preventative maintenance. (3) Design schools that are well suited to accommodate the needs of all learners for their educational levels, their technical and general education curricula and extra-curricular requirements, gender specificities, inclusive to learners with disabilities and special educational needs and equipped with the technology and resources for twenty-first century teaching and learning. (4) Build back better than before by using climate smart technologies and materials in retrofitting and construction for long-run sustainability of education facilities. (5) Finding alternatives to schools as emergency shelters is another area of priority action to minimize the time children spend out of school after disasters. (6) Reimagining the learning requirements of the 21st century and building and retrofitting schools that are child-friendly, safe, disaster and climate resilient and well prepared to withstand multiple hazards while meeting the education goals of learners. (7) Development of an Education Infrastructure Master Plan to identify the current and future capacity needs of the system. This Master Plan will help the process of prioritization and efficiency in management of school infrastructure policies, and the broader public sector investment program. (8) Finally, look beyond short-term costs but analyze long-term benefits and invest in smart and resilient education infrastructure. 48 Confidential 6. Skills for Resilience Caribbean countries are at crossroads to boost growth, increase employment, sustain livelihoods and reorient economies to withstand future shocks. Investment in human capital is integral to advance disaster risk reduction and resilience and thereby sustain economic growth. The area of disaster risk is cross-disciplinary, complex, and has an expansive scope of application, and this poses theoretical and practical challenges to skills development and training (Holloway, 2015; Yarime, Trencher, Mino, Scholz, Olsson, Ness et al., 2012; Holloway et al., 2019). To explore the issues around skills for resilience the following areas are reviewed: (1) the demand and supply considerations for development of skills for more resilient Caribbean societies in the future; (2) Coping with shocks by setting the foundations to build and sustain skills development; (3) Managing continuity by building skills of the core workforce; (3) Improving and accelerating by creating skills for transformation and diversification of economic activity; and (4) Institutional systems for skills for resilience. Demand and Supply Side Considerations for Skills Development Climate change, natural disasters and health shocks are redefining jobs and the commensurate skills requirements. To cope, manage recovery and build resilience from external shocks requires different skills exploited over different time horizons. In this section, demand and supply side considerations for skills are presented across the three policy responses to shocks, including: (1) coping; (2) managing continuity; and (3) improving and accelerating. In the coping phase, the focus is on learners, teachers and caregivers, the main actors in basic education system. Learners are the foundation of education systems, and the emphasis on skills building for this group requires revision of curriculum to incorporate content on climate change, disaster risk reduction and the future growth areas for resilience. In addition, there are other key skills required in the coping phase, the importance of which are amplified during shocks. In the period of COVID-19, these are the parents, community health assistants, frontline service workers; in disasters these are the construction workers, and debris movers who have switched from other functions to provide essential services to cope with the shock and manage continuity while setting the foundations for improving and accelerating policy responses. External shocks disrupt economic and social wellbeing which challenges countries to rethink the structure of their economies. Following natural disasters which erode the economic and social base of economies, policymakers are confronted with decisions to generate short term employment and think long-term on the future of work. These time horizons require building a range of different skills sets using various formats and training methods. To support economies to manage continuity and transition to resilience requires competencies in procurement, post disaster risk assessments, critical care and trauma, among others. Disruptions from natural disasters and health shocks have magnified the vulnerabilities from reliance on tourism or trade in commodities as economic growth engines. To build back better and sustain long term economic growth, following disasters and health shocks, an important pivot in the structure of economies to focus on transformation and diversification is paramount. Policymakers in the Caribbean have commenced discussions on key areas for transformation and diversification of economic activity and to support this switch requires building the corresponding skills for resilience. Natural disasters and health shocks impact livelihoods of vulnerable groups more severely. In both natural disasters and health shocks the poor bear the brunt of losses in employment and income. In 49 Confidential general, vulnerable groups are in informal jobs or in low-skilled occupations in hospitality industry, and wholesale and retail trade. These sectors are the most affected by disasters and health shocks, due to direct loss of clientele, and inability to work from home. Vulnerable households have fewer coping mechanisms such as savings and access to social safety nets, making training and skills development essential to their long-term livelihood and wellbeing. In the Caribbean, the prevalence of job losses as a result of COVID-19 is greater in low-income households (Arteaga-Garavito, Beuermann, Giles-Alvarez, et al., 2020). The loss of employment by households reporting earnings below minimum wage in the Bahamas (80.6 percent), Barbados (49.4 percent), Guyana (56.0 percent), Jamaica (59.1 percent), Suriname (35.9 percent) and Trinidad and Tobago (66.8 percent) is acute. Social programs to cushion the effects on livelihoods were developed to complement existing support systems. The beneficiaries of these programs are from all income groups, indicating need for broad-based skills development programs to build resilience. The coverage of new social programs in response to the health shock benefitted low- income households in the Bahamas (46.3 percent), Barbados (11.1 percent), Jamaica (12.3 percent) and Trinidad and Tobago (20.6 percent) (Arteaga-Garavito et al., 2020). The disproportionate effects on employment, earnings and well-being of vulnerable groups due to economic shocks, and the long-term impacts on children in these households requires special considerations for building skills for resilience within this cohort. Foremost, is a holistic approach to grow new economic sectors to absorb displaced workers and minimize job losses following pandemics and disasters. The general demand and supply factors for skills development are discussed next. Coping: Setting the Foundation to Build and Sustain Skills for Resilience Changes in the future of work requires a balance of cognitive, socioemotional and technical skills to build and sustain human capital throughout an individual’s lifecycle. The work ongoing within the Caribbean School Safety Roadmap, especially the development of curriculum and training is a start towards this agenda. The outcomes from monitoring the Caribbean Safe School Roadmap indicates that 45 percent of countries made significant progress in reviewing and updating disaster risk management components in curriculum. Progress on training of school staff, family and community on disaster risk management similarly recorded significant progress in more than three-fifths of countries. The next key step is to commence putting into practice the skills learnt as teachers incorporate the DRM into class teaching, with this knowledge imparted to students and trickling through families and the communities. Building skills for resilience requires supporting children and youth to acquire and share a broad base of knowledge and competencies on disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation and pandemics. In addition to improving children’s technical knowledge and skills it is essential to enhance their cognitive, behavioral and emotional commitment to climate change, natural disasters and health issues. This can be achieved by: (1) Wider coverage of the climate change adaptation (CCA) topic in the curriculum. (2) Creating flexible learning environments, organizing and fostering collaboration between schools, academia and businesses to update the curriculum, share local knowledge on adaptation and expand students’ access to technology. (3) Developing specific skills to enhance students’ adaptive capacity to embrace resilience. (4) Applying dynamic, interactive and innovative teaching methods. (5) Targeted adaptation capacity building through technical vocational training. (6) Continuous development of teachers’ skills and knowledge, making these adaptable to the national and regional green growth agenda (Fazey, Fischer, Sherren, Warren, et al. 2007). 50 Confidential To effectively integrate additional content on DRR and climate change into teaching and learning requires addressing underlying challenges within education systems. The issues of quality, school attendance, student participation in learning and teacher professional development are discussed below. Out of school students, dropout, and overage are evolving problems in the Caribbean. By the last grade of primary school 15 percent and 20.7 percent of students drop out of the system in Suriname and the Dominican Republic respectively. The problem of student dropout persists throughout the education cycle and by the last grade of lower secondary, student dropout rates surpass 10 percent in Belize (31.2 percent), Suriname, (27.6 percent), St. Vincent and the Grenadines (15.2 percent) and Grenada (14.5 percent). The rates of out of school students is elevated and this poses a challenge to impart knowledge on DRR and resilience to a generation of students who are not in the system to participate in learning. In upper secondary classes across the Caribbean 30 – 40 percent of students are out of school in the Bahamas, Belize, and Suriname. In Caribbean small states as a whole 26.3 percent of students are not in school. A risk factor for student dropout is being over the age range for a specific grade level. In the Caribbean while grade repetition is practiced and this contributes to over-age in grade, most countries register less than 5 percent of overage students. In the countries with rates of over-age students above 5 percent, there are common demographics and social factors, including: (1) indigenous population; (2) migrants whose main language is different from that of the host country; and (3) language of classroom instruction is different from that spoken in sections of the population. In Haiti, almost one-half of student population are over-age, in Sint Maarten 15 percent, in Suriname 16 percent, Dominican Republic 11 percent, Belize 9 percent, and Dominica 7 percent (Table 8).14 Addressing the special educational needs of children in these groups, once aggregated accounts for a significant proportion of the population with low educational attainment. Extending the concepts of DRR, climate change, digital literacy and the general skills for economic resilience to students out of school requires novel interventions on skills training. The best policy imperative is to avert student dropout through early warning systems to prevent students from leaving the system, or once they are out of the system to develop specialized second chance programs to teach technical, numeracy, literacy, digital and life skills. Natural disasters and health shocks exposes the fragility and evolving nature of prevailing systems, and all students whether in or out of school should be given the opportunity to rebound from the impact of externally induced shocks. This opportunity for resilience is through the development of cognitive, socio-emotional and technical skills. Finding ways to reach students out of formal education and provide skills for resilience requires varied approaches through, specialized courses, TVET and adult learning. An extensive array of courses is available at the TVET level, however, there is less supply of specialized programs to reintegrate students who have dropped out or are out of schools. Table 8. Selected Education Indicators Trained Dropout Rates – Cumulative Rate of Out-of-School Teachers (percent) (percent) (percent) Country Primary- Lower secondary - Lower Upper Primary Primary Last Grade Last Grade Secondary secondary Antigua and Barbuda - 8.8 0.7 1.4 12.8 52.8 14 Data from World Development Indicators, latest available year. 51 Confidential Trained Dropout Rates – Cumulative Rate of Out-of-School Teachers (percent) (percent) (percent) Country Primary- Lower secondary - Lower Upper Primary Primary Last Grade Last Grade Secondary secondary Bahamas - - 23.5 29.5 32.5 89.8 Barbados - - 1.6 3.8 5.6 76.5 Belize 4.2 31.2 0.7 10.1 38.8 79.2 Dominica - - 1.0 2.0 16.0 65.7 Dominican Republic 20.7 9.4 5.5 10.7 24.6 94.9 Grenada - 14.5 0.8 - 3.2 62.9 Jamaica 3.3 - 15.6 17.9 24.5 100.0 St. Kitts and Nevis 7.3 9.5 1.1 - 4.5 72.0 St. Lucia 8.0 1.5 1.4 11.9 19.7 89.0 St. Vincent and Grenadines 5.4 15.2 0.5 1.5 15.1 61.1 Suriname 15.0 27.6 13.8 15.0 37.9 99.0 Caribbean Small States 8.5 - 9.1 13.5 26.3 85.7 Source: World Development Indicators Databank, 2020. Note. Latest available year. Teacher quality is an important factor in academic success of students. Evidence on teacher’s own academic performance and cognitive skills significantly affects students’ learning. An improvement of one standard deviation in cognitive skills of teachers corresponds with an expansion of 10 to 15 percent of a standard deviation in student performance (Hanushek, Piopinnik and Wiederhold, 2019). In the countries which score to the top of international standardized tests, teachers are generally educated to graduate level and are recruited from the top tiers of the graduating class. There is further evidence to suggest that in these high performing countries (Finland, Singapore, South Korea) teachers are well-paid and this correlates with students’ achievement. In the Caribbean teacher remuneration is low, turnover is high as compared with jobs in the private sector with the same entry qualifications and experience. Those who select into teaching do so as few alternative employment options are available. In the Caribbean the basic entry requirements for primary school teachers is five passes at the CSEC level including in mathematics and language. Secondary school teachers require additional passes in CAPE. In Jamaica, Suriname, and Haiti, teachers first follow pre-service training program before entering the profession (Table 8). In other countries, teachers are trained in-service. In the Caribbean Small States 85.7 percent of teachers are trained. The international evidence on the strong correlation between teachers’ cognitive skills on students’ achievement requires an assessment of the health of Caribbean education systems. It is timely to assess educational system challenges and teacher effectiveness and find solutions for the identified deficiencies to improve teaching and learning and secure long-term gains in human capital accumulation. There are opportunities and limitations in the pace of cultivating skills for resilience within basic education. The incorporation of skills for resilience within the core curriculum are available to students enrolled in the system, programs to reach those out of school is an action area. There are functioning systems for teacher professional development, however the challenges facing education systems requires an in-depth analysis on teacher effectiveness and education quality. The existing pre- and in-service 52 Confidential mechanisms for teacher professional development allows for the building of skills for resilience in the education system. In addition to the training on pedagogy and technical contents, there is need for coaching and refresher courses to upgrade and sustain knowledge and build skills for resilience. A program to build the foundation skills of learners starts with teacher professional development around the themes of DRR, climate change, implementation of school safety and preparedness plans, digital technologies to facilitate remote education, metacognitive strategies to support students’ independent learning, and training in psychosocial care and social and emotional learning. Despite the challenges in education systems in the Caribbean, there are glimmers of hope related to DRR, climate change and digital literacy. The constrained 5 to 6 hours daily class schedules allocated to the disciplines of science, languages, mathematics and specialized subjects provides few options for standalone courses on climate change and disaster risk reduction. However, some countries in the Caribbean including Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have developed curriculum for climate change and disaster risk reduction and integrated the concepts within all subject areas at all educational levels. The next steps for the remaining Caribbean countries are to continue the initial progress on weaving these concepts into curriculum, and to commence the process of teacher training to eventual knowledge transfer of this learning to students. At the government level, there is a key role for policymakers in laying the foundations through institutional frameworks, strong systems, and enabling opportunities in innovation, science, engineering and technology and entrepreneurship to fuel the drive for DRR and resilience, climate change, and digital technologies. To date, of the 557,600 subject entries in 2019 CSEC, there were 4.6 percent in information technology and 3.7 percent in foundational engineering courses.15 As countries modernize education systems to meet future human capital needs, improve productivity and competitiveness of economies a reorientation of candidates’ focus areas for initial education is inevitable. The sustainability of climate change and DRR within curricula requires proper integration within all disciplines and educational levels. Selby and Kagawa (2014) identify the key dimensions for DRR education as: (1) Understanding the science and mechanisms of natural disasters; (2) learning and practicing safety measures and procedures; (3) Understanding risk drivers and how hazards can become disasters; (4) building community risk reduction capacity; and (5) building an institutional and community- wide culture of safety and resilience. As a starting point to move from theory to practice of DRR in Caribbean education system requires multisectoral interlinkages to administer drills, run simulation exercises and provide practical training on technical specialist areas of climate change and DRR, among other areas. Globally and in the Caribbean, the full potential of DRR and resilience in integrating knowledge from different disciplines and practice spheres is far from being accomplished (Holloway, 2019). There is an increase in unskilled and semi-skilled job opportunities immediately following natural disasters and pandemics. In the Caribbean following disasters, such as cyclone events, widespread damage to the housing stock requires technical skills in construction. At the same time, damage to air and seaports, hotel infrastructure, telecommunication and power generation causes temporary downturn in economic activities such as tourism and related services. These workers in hotels, restaurants, tours, vendors among other direct occupations are temporarily out of work, while other segments of the job market such as construction and public works have a shortage for skills. To build the skills of the workers to temporarily transition between occupations during disasters is through tailor made intensive courses, apprenticeship, and on the job training programs. While these skills can be developed and deployed 15 The aggregation of CSEC subjects in foundational engineering courses related to disaster risk reduction include industrial technology – building, electrical, mechanical – and technical drawing. 53 Confidential through short duration programs, adaptation of the formal certification system is required to recognize and certify these skills. In building resilience in infrastructure for example, requires that workers in the building trades are well-trained to deliver quality results able to withstand future disaster events. The retooling of employees from vulnerable sectors which are disproportionately affected by disasters and pandemics such as hospitality to work in other sectors with employment such as construction have direct benefits for these groups and the economy. Improving and accelerating policy responses to shocks requires finding mechanisms to envisage the future skills needs and formalize provision. The regional mechanisms to mobilize and share the expertise of disaster professionals exists , and this provides an alternative avenue to fill skills shortages. The formal regional model of supplying expertise to fill gaps in skilled personnel for disaster preparedness and response is managed by CDEMA. There is also an informal regional model of mobility of labor which occurs post disasters, the future sustainability of this arrangement requires reimagining the mobility instruments (skills certificate and CVQs) to improve the movement of skills across the Caribbean. Despite the availability of regional pool of formal and informal skilled personnel, short-term disruptions of logistics during and after disasters are inhibiting factors which merits the availability of certain core capacities at the national level with supplementary backstopping provided by regional groups. National programs to train and redeploy essential workers to meet the immediate needs of coping and recovery during and after disasters are important. While the regional model has worked to date to fill skills gaps after disasters, there are avenues for improving and accelerating. The region has been fortunate to date that disaster events are isolated across the region and skills shortages can be filled; thinking ahead of an event or concurrent disaster events which immobilizes large segments of the Caribbean this regional model will face operational channels. The development of a regional model for improving and accelerating skills for resilience during pandemics is past due. Pandemics which almost simultaneously affects most countries and regions, requires specific methods to access and fill skills gaps. The regional disaster deployment model holds merit and is a basic starting point from which to develop a functional model to address skills gaps arising from pandemics. Selected Caribbean countries supplemented the national supply of nurses through recruitment of health care workers from Cuba (Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, Dominica, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, among others) and Ghana (Barbados). In other areas such as education, a regional model to share best practices on teacher training digital technologies, distance learning, and coaching, on audio/visual content, and other innovative and cost-effective approaches has not been practiced at scale. There are significant opportunities arising from COVID-19 to collaborate, coordinate and develop regional models to fill skills gaps. Youth unemployment in the Caribbean is high and as policymakers develop strategies to build skills for resilience it is worthwhile to focus on training programs for this cohort of future workers to benefit regional labor markets. Managing Continuity: Building skills of the core workforce This section reviews competency requirements for core workforce engaged in business continuity during and after disasters and health shocks to manage coping, recovery and transition to building back better. The first area of skills development is in capacity building for personnel in public and private sector entities with key roles in preparedness and response. This includes frontline responders, in the military and allied services, utilities, professionals in priority sectors of disaster risk management, public works, health, education, construction, tourism and agriculture. Second, the identification of scarce skills to support and complement disaster risk reduction and resilience in specialized areas of engineering (geophysics, hydraulics, climatology climate change adaptation, geoinformatics, meteorology, among others), 54 Confidential procurement management, digital technology and risk financing (Alexander, 1997). Having the right skills in place to plan for disaster events, build resilience and manage fast paced recovery could have positive effects on reducing well-being losses attributable to disasters. The training for first responders to natural disasters and health shocks are grouped in 3 main categories – continuous professional development, skills enhancement and periodic refresher courses. The areas for skills training were identified from a skills audit commissioned by CDEMA and these are: (1) Disaster preparedness, planning, response and recovery. Within the area of disaster planning the fields of training include emergency and disaster planning contingency planning; business continuity planning; and design and management of disaster preparedness events. The core competencies to be developed for disaster recovery and reconstruction are emergency operations center management; incident command system; emergency response coordination; damage assessment and needs analysis; contingent financial management; procurement; and innovative technologies. (2) The second area of skills creation centers on risk management and financing, information management and communication. The relevant thematic areas for training are in risk, vulnerability and hazard assessment, early warning systems, community resilience, and data management, combined these are essential to reduce disaster risk vulnerabilities and build resilience. (3) Capacity building across all spheres including public sector, private sector and civil society (CDEMA, 2017). The major damage and destruction of housing and public buildings from natural disasters in the Caribbean points to a problem in the way facilities are constructed and maintained. Skills building around improved construction practices especially compliance with building codes and regulations. and training of site selection and inspection, design and construction and the general issues of compliance and enforcement of codes can benefit from further skills development and training. The TVET centers through the CVQs have a key role in providing certification for skills in the construction sector to ensure compliance with provisions in building codes and regulations. National building codes are available or are in various stages of development and revision across the Caribbean. These building codes play an important role in DRR and resilience.16 There is a void in adequate provision of training on safe planning and construction practices and the periodic verification of competence of professionals and practitioners. The training for resilience in the built environment extends to planners, building inspectors, architects, engineers, surveyors, disaster risk financing experts, builders and artisans with further spillovers for building of public awareness. In many Caribbean countries, housing construction in segments of the social strata is informal and lacks regulation, this practice persists and exposes these households to heighten risks during disasters and pandemics. These structures in many cases are not structural equipped to weather flooding, hurricane force winds or earthquakes. During pandemics, there is limited space in these homes for physical distancing, some lack water and sanitation, essential cornerstones for disease prevention. Japan in implementing building regulatory reform addressed limited technical and institutional quality through training and licensing of building professionals to create the enabling environment for compliance; this has shown significant risk reduction impacts (World Bank, 2018). The structures for developing skills for resilience through continuous professional development and training exist at the national and regional levels. There are organized structures and professional bodies and associations for builders and contractors, engineers, and architects. However, the mandates of these 16 Information available from OECS 2018 Building Codes conference. https://www.oecs.org/en/our- work/knowledge/library/sustainable-energy/oecs-building-codes 55 Confidential entities can be broadened to support the professional development and certification of members. Although the systems are in place there are capacity constraints to effectively develop and regulate training standards, set criteria and guidelines for certification and licensing of building practitioners and professionals, and to review performance and develop and update database of licensed professionals. Once the requirements for certification, accreditation and licensing are enforced at the policy level through a robust regulatory framework this will filter through education and training systems. At the regional level, the universities, CARICOM Regional Organization for Standards and Quality, CDEMA, Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) and development partners all play different roles in skills development for resilience. Professional development training courses for disaster risk reduction and resilience are offered through various channels. Under the guidance CDEMA and in collaboration with development partners -United States Agency for International Development, Office of United States Foreign Disaster Assistance, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Global Canada, European Commission, among others, short courses are provided to practitioners. There are course offerings at regional tertiary level institutions leading to academic certifications at the diploma, undergraduate and graduate levels. A survey of European universities found few disaster resilience related academic programs across Europe, rather greater preference on engineering courses (Perdikou, Horak, Halounová, Palliyaguru et al., 2016). Professional courses in the general areas of engineering and procurement management are available at Caribbean universities and further afield. The CCRIF annually provides scholarships to Caribbean students to pursue undergraduate and masters level programs in disaster risk management, natural resources management, climate change, civil and environmental engineering, metrology and other courses, tenable at universities in the Caribbean, United Kingdom, United States and Canada. Since the program launched in 2010, seventy-seven scholarships have been awarded (CCRIF, 2020). CCRIF had additionally provided access to training opportunities for technical staff of member countries. The personnel to manage disaster risk reduction are available in the Caribbean public sector. Countries in the Caribbean all have disaster offices, and multisectoral councils to oversee disaster risk reduction and resilience. These structures are well established and staffed with career public sector employees (established staff) and temporary contractual staff (non-established). A review of the annual public estimates of revenue and expenditure indicates budgetary allocations for training and development across the public service pointing to professional development opportunities. Capital projects related to climate change, disaster risk reduction, agriculture, blue and green economy, energy, digital transformation, green and climate finance, and public sector modernization are areas of increasing focus in the Caribbean. Within these projects are components for training and these are geared to not only support countries with coping with adverse events but also improving and accelerating policy events, sustain gains and build resilience. Instituting mechanisms within the public and private sectors to formalize continuous professional development is an essential step to improve performance, productivity, competitiveness and human capital. The COVID-19 health shock has underscored the importance of arresting the debilitating and silent effects of non-communicable diseases. In the Caribbean, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) – cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, hypertension, cancers, chronic respiratory disease, and mental illness – are the leading cause of premature mortality. In 2016, an estimated 75 percent of total deaths in the Caribbean were due to NCDs and this burdens health systems PAHO, 2019). The health spending attached to detection, treatment and care for these diseases are high; while prevention is cost-effective and have long-term positive implications on economic growth (UNIAFT, UNDP, and PAHO, 2018). Addressing the 56 Confidential problem of NCDs is non-traditional in discussions on economic resilience, despite the prevalence and high direct and indirect costs. There are a broad range of skills associated with reducing the risk factors for NCDs, many of which are in short supply in the region (PAHO, 2016). The data on the density of physicians, measured as total number per 10,000 population for physicians and nurse to population varies widely in the Caribbean largely due to migration. In Haiti the availability of physicians is 2.3 per 10,000 of the population compared to 41.7 per 10,000 population in Trinidad and Tobago. The data on nurses range from a low of 6.8 per 10,000 of the population in Haiti to a high of 70.1 in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (WHO, 2020). The data on medical doctors and nurses does not provide breakdowns of specialized medical fields, including those needed to detect, treat, care and prevent NCDs or illnesses arising from health shocks. This assessment of skills gap in health services is an essential exercise in improving and accelerating policy responses to shocks. Increased investment in skills development for health care professionals will benefit progress in attaining SDGs. Due to global demand for health care workers, retention is problematic as mobility of high skilled migrants from the Caribbean is high. Caribbean countries including Haiti, Guyana, Dominican Republic and Jamaica have an average emigration rate of 40 percent of the tertiary educated native population. (Kone and Özden, 2017; Artuc, Docquier, Özden, and Parsons, 2015; Docquier and Rapoport, 2012). The evidence on climate change and health points to an increase in climate sensitive diseases including vector borne (malaria and dengue), water borne (leptospirosis and gastroenteritis), cardiovascular and respiratory conditions which combined will affect the ability of health systems in small island states to promote and protect health.17 This reinforces the need for a continuous supply of cross-disciplinary resilience focused skills sets, to meet national needs in general and specialized health fields. In the Caribbean, guidance for the development of health-related skills sets is defined in the Caribbean Action Plan on Health and Climate Change 2019 - 2023. World Bank’s Human Capital Index emphasizes the importance of investments in health and education and the effects on productivity of future workers (World Bank, 2019c). Improving and Accelerating: Skills for Transformation and Diversification of Economic Activity Diversifying within and away from vulnerable industries will promote resilience in Caribbean economies and this will require the development of the complementary skills. The areas of digital technology, automation, creative and cultural industries, blue and green economies and climate change adaptation have been discussed by regional policymakers as potential areas for economic diversification, growth and job creation. In parallel, policymakers are probing ways to add value and pivot within sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and energy to develop new revenue streams to reduce vulnerability and exposure to shocks. The rapid move to distance education, growth in technology for work, leisure, business and health, the push for improved internet connectivity, and large talented youth population all provides an enabling environment for innovative skills development in the projected diversification sectors. Plus, the regional frameworks in the form of the CARICOM Human Resource and Development Strategy, the CVQs, and the free movement of skilled personnel broadens the scope for diversification around the Caribbean. 17 Details available at https://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/summary/en/index5.html 57 Confidential The recurrence and prevalence of natural disasters in the recent past emphasizes the need to transform and diversify economic activity beyond the main drivers of tourism, and trade in commodities. The channels to build economic resilience are through improvements in the existing sectors of construction, agriculture, tourism and expanding into new sectors. The agriculture industry has gained a boost from COVID-19 pandemic, following to global supply chains and effects on national food security. The contribution of agriculture to GDP has been declining progressively across the Caribbean. However, the importance of agriculture is being reevaluated as food imports account for 60 percent of total food consumption for 50 percent of CARICOM member countries. The importance of the agriculture sector in the Caribbean has been eroded, but has future potential as a source of employment, foreign exchange earnings, a means to control food import bill and contribute to national food security and nutrition. The economic and social derivatives of the sector and the vulnerability of the sector to natural disasters aligned with its importance as a source of food supply in times of emergencies and disasters demands that agriculture is sustainable and resilience to disaster impacts (UNDP, 2020). Climate change is forecasted to affect the sector through loss of agricultural productivity with spillovers to production yields, earnings, resulting in food insecurity. The benefits to be gained from agriculture requires a rethink from the traditional practices to climate smart agriculture and agribusiness models. This modernization of agriculture requires skills development around technology, supply chains, logistics and innovation. Training and course offerings on agriculture are available at the secondary, TVET and tertiary educational levels. Revision of course contents to meet the future demands of the sector are slowly evolving. While formal training programs are available and well-established, training programs for the main players in agriculture are limited. Improving and accelerating policy responses in agriculture industry to build economic resilience requires training programs for agricultural extension workers and continuous professional development programs for farmers on new agricultural techniques and options for risk mitigation financing. Agriculture is an area for wider collaboration among key national and regional stakeholders to transform this sector, innovate and build resilience. As regional policy makers design measures to reduce the vulnerabilities of climate change on agriculture, skills development is best conceptualized around resilience and adaptation. Risk reduction and resilience in agriculture depends on research on climate impacts on key export crops; cultivation of drought, heat, saltwater and pest resistant cultivars, agricultural diversification, production of short cycle crops, minimization of land degradation, integrated pest management, efficiency in water use through irrigation and storage.18 Incorporating circular economy concepts into agriculture provides an avenue to expand value added, build CCA and resilience to the other threats which affect the sector. Economic resilience of Caribbean economies requires a whole of government, private sector and regional approach. The transformation and diversification of the economies requires policy direction from governments and collaborations with private sector firms on skills needs and with training providers on supply and certification of competencies. In the area of climate change and energy, the Caribbean acts both nationally and regionally. In Box 7 skills for resilience in energy and climate change are reviewed. Box 7. Skills for resilience in energy and climate change Caribbean countries are price takers and are exposed to volatility in prices of imports particularly of commodities such as oil and gas. The cost of energy in the Caribbean is among the highest globally, the region has the lowest 18 Details are available at: https://www.adaptation-undp.org/explore/caribbean 58 Confidential share of primary energy consumption within the Latin American sub-regions but holds the second highest contribution to GDP at 3.6 percent (ECLAC, 2016). Energy affordability is a concern in the Caribbean. Prices are high due to inefficiencies in the sector, high electricity system losses, and reliance on fossil fuel imports for electricity generation. The cost of energy has an impact on growth, competitiveness and contributes to the high cost of doing business in the Caribbean (McIntyre, El-Ashram, Ronci, Reynaud, et al., 2016). Through the Caribbean Center for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (CCREEE) energy report cards, countries have identified the potential capacity for renewable energy. The potential sources of renewables are in wind, solar PV, hydro, geothermal and biomass and waste to technology. The University of the West Indies offers courses which in some measure support skills development for the Caribbean’s green future. 19 While the general skills used in the energy sector are transferable, there are skills specific to the renewable technology and course offerings on these are not available in the region. As the region moves to attain its global commitments to reduce greenhouse gases and pollution, diversify economies, and safeguard public health, skills development in climate change, energy efficiency, waste management, environmental protection and sustainable development are national priorities. Employment in the energy sector in the Caribbean is largely male dominated (CCREEE 2020), the push remains at the educational level to expand the pool in females in science, technology, engineering and mathematics subject areas to achieve gender equality. The discovery of oil and gas in Guyana provides trial runs to the adaptability of skills development around a new sector and the agility of the regional labor pool to fill emerging skills gaps. Vulnerable workers are the most affected by disaster events and health shocks due to jobs losses especially of those in the informal sector, low human capital accumulation, and limited protection from unemployment insurance and wage subsidies. Skills development and training has a poverty bias against disadvantaged households, who stand to lose the most from disaster events. In a simple example from Bangladesh, the poor were less likely to attend cyclone preparedness training despite being the most affected (Akter and Mallick, 2013). To build resilience in education system requires special emphasis on skills development for low wage earners and vulnerable workers to improve livelihoods. Government targeted interventions to support these workers to redeploy to available jobs is an essential service. The core components of the training program for vulnerable workers includes courses on digital skills, use of technology to support other parts of the skills ecosystem such as students within their household engaged in homeschooling. Skills on financial literacy are also important. In the short-term combining income support from social protection programs with active labor market policies sets the foundation for sustainable future employment of vulnerable workers. In the longer term, policymakers need to assess the job prospects and security of tenure of vulnerable workers and devise skills development opportunities to increase their human capital accumulation and improve employment prospects. Box 8 examines skills development in digital technologies. Box 8. Skills development in digital technologies The COVID-19 health shock has highlighted the shift and importance of digital technology for education continuity. Digitalization of core services and infusion of technology in the public and private sectors has merit to facilitate business continuity and broadens scope for remote work for essential workers during and after disasters and health shocks. Jamaica experimented with the use of geographic information systems mapping to 19 The following courses are offered at Universities domiciled in the Caribbean: alternative energy (BSc.); energy and environmental physics (BSc. PhD); renewable energy technology (BSc); renewable energy management (MSc and post-graduate diploma); renewable energy engineering (MSc); sustainable energy and climate (MSc); mechanical engineering with renewable energy and energy efficiency (BSc). 59 Confidential model COVID-19 hotspots to inform the opening of schools for face-to face instruction. There is scope to incorporate digital technologies in DRR and climate change, however skills development is critical. The ICT Development index captures ICT access, use and skills in a composite index to monitor progress and development in that area across countries and time horizons. At the top of the index in 2017 is Iceland with a score of 9.0, the highest ranked Caribbean countries are Barbados (7.3) and St. Kitts and Nevis (7.2) and the lowest ranked is Suriname (5.2) (ITU, 2019). Digital technologies of big data, machine learning, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, virtual and augmented reality, internet of things, blockchain, robotics, cloud computing, have ample applications for disaster reduction, health shocks and climate change and the main economic and social sectors. Skills development and training in digital technologies related to disaster management and health shocks in the Caribbean is nascent. Finally, data which complements digital technology constitutes an essential part of management of disasters and health shocks and skills development in all areas of data is of high importance for resilience in the Caribbean. The monitoring, tracking, evaluation and analysis of data are important to inform policy decisions for preparedness, response and recovery. While data collection has improved, major challenges remain. Training on digital technologies will close some of the data gap. The future of work presents opportunities, however there are significant challenges which require revolutionary and visionary thinking and planning to realize benefits. Automation and expanding use of artificial intelligence, robotics, big data, 3-D printing, among other technological innovations progressively displace workers and expand technological unemployment, especially in manufacturing and customer service fields (Acemoglu and Restrepo, 2020). COVID-19 and the requirements for physical distancing and fear of eroded profits is intensifying the appeal for automation, potentially accelerating job destruction for low wage earners (Susskind, 2020). Education and skill development have important roles in equipping vulnerable workers with lower educational attainment to upskill, retrain, adapt and engage in lifelong learning. In the Caribbean, the shift in mindset on the importance of science, technology engineering, and mathematics (STEM) and research has started, with expanded course offerings and project-based learning. However, data from regional examinations identify the need for major improvements in teaching and learning in the STEM fields. The thematic areas of STEM are the foundations for disaster risk reduction, CCA and health sciences related to pandemics. Further investment and incorporation of STEM education will complement and expand the coverage of DRR and CCA in the curriculum. To build skills for resilience, policymakers have to find creative ways outside of formal education systems to expand access to lifelong learning programs and provide corresponding certifications. Institutional Systems for Skills for Resilience At regional level the institutional and governance structures for skills development are in place. In DRR, climate change, energy and standards, there are CDEMA, Caribbean Community Climate Change Center, CCREEE and CROSQ. The overarching structures for training, skills development and certifications are led by the university systems, national training authorities and CXC. The sector specific organs in agriculture, tourism, education and health, provide guidance on policy direction to inform the creation of skills for resilience in their respective areas. To build and sustain skills for resilience will require greater collaboration of these entities in developing and supporting multidisciplinary training programs. Training and higher education policies on disaster risk reduction is good economics. Training for risk reduction is not limited to the professional areas of engineering and procurement but extend to other technical fields such as heavy equipment management and maintenance to support debris removal after 60 Confidential disasters, clearing of waterways, the know-how on roof installation methods to survive weather events, among other risk reduction activities. The building of these key technical vocational education and training skills lies with the national training agencies, with certification provided by the National and Caribbean Vocational Qualifications (NVQs / CVQs). In the anglophone Caribbean the structures to provide skills development for resilience exist. The relevance of these programs has to be maintained through continuous professional development of trainers, periodic audit and revision of curriculum content, and practical training programs aligned with labor market needs. Training on the general areas too support DRR are available, however skills gaps exist in specialized areas such as actuarial science, structural civil engineering, loss assessments and disaster risk financing. Box 9 provides an analysis of the NVQs and CVQs to identify gaps in skills offerings relevant to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Box 9. National and Caribbean Vocational Qualifications The National and Caribbean Vocational Qualifications (NVQs / CVQs) provides competency-based certifications assessed against occupational standards. In the Caribbean, especially in Jamaica, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago the vocational qualifications systems are established. The certification structure covers five levels of competence, Level 1 (entry level occupations); Level 2 (skilled occupations); Level 3 (technical, skilled and supervisory occupations; Level 4 (technical, specialist and middle management occupations); and Level 5 (chartered, professional and senior management occupations. 20 Course offerings leading to levels 1 to 3 are numerous, with a few vocational courses available at level 4. The vocational qualifications up to level 2 are available for offer to students at schools which have the necessary infrastructure. Schools collaborate closely with national training agencies in the offer of these programs. The awarding of the CVQ certificate to students in secondary schools is by the Caribbean Examinations Council (CXC). Outside of schools, the national training agencies oversees the delivery of course content, awarding of certificates and approving training institutions to offer CVQ training. The national training agencies develop standards, accredit programs, prepare and administer assessments, and awards certificates to trainees meeting defined competence. Additionally, CVQs can be awarded to practitioners for prior learning through assessments and recognition. The course contents and occupational standards are developed by industry experts and this insider knowledge informs the design and supply of the right mix of courses in line with the evolving needs of industry. Course offerings to build skills for disaster resilience exist in construction and building trades, hospitality, agriculture, tourism and hospitality. National policy directives on skills training directly related to disaster risk management at the technical vocational and training level are embryonic. The top CVQ courses at the secondary level are in fields not directly to disaster risk reduction (Figure 8). 20 CXC, 2020. 61 Confidential Figure 8. Top CVQ Occupational Areas (2019) (in percent of total entries) Electrical Installation (14.5%) Commercial Food Preparation (9.2%) Data Operations (6.9%) Metalwork Engineering (6.7%) Food and Drink Service (6.2%) General Cosmetology (5.8%) Crop Production (5.4%) Furniture Making (5.3%) Call Center Operations (5.0%) Candidate entries 4,388 | Occupational Areas 46 Source: Caribbean Examination Council, 2020 In 2019, there were 4,388 CVQ candidate entries at the secondary school level and 39.2 percent were awarded a full CVQ completion. In Jamaica in the period 2015 – 2019, less than 50 percent of trainees in TVET programs received certification from the National Council on Technical and Vocational Education and Training. COVID-19 health shock presents challenges to the effective functioning of skills development programs. The COVID-19 health shock presents a challenge for the practical training component of teaching and learning. In secondary schools in the Caribbean, children preparing for the high stakes CSEC are required to provide student-based assessments which are project related portfolios, and these contribute to final examination grade. Similarly, for TVET programs, the lack of digital options such as virtual reality to simulate workspaces affects skills training. At teacher training colleges, a key requirement is practicum on pedagogical approaches for preservice teachers. The onset of health shocks delays this practical training and disrupts the supply of teachers to the system. In the health care system, practical trainings for student nurses and medical students have been similarly disrupted, thus again affecting future supply of key skills. As systems innovate and improve there are key lessons for the delivery of practical skills training and continuity of TVET programs. Investments in human capital is an essential pillar of building resilience. The evolution and uncertainty surrounding jobs of the future accentuates the importance of human capital development. Building skills for resilience to disaster risk and health shocks starts from the foundation of early childhood through to adult learning and augmented with soft skills. Incorporating aspects of climate change, disaster risk reduction and health shocks into the curriculum at all educational levels builds awareness. The training and involvement of communities, households and stakeholders contributes positively to the development of the critical competencies for disaster risk reduction and recovery. To be effective, this requires a functioning institutional framework to assess the skills gaps, select training providers, create partnerships, develop curriculum and resources and lead training, and manage certification, coaching, mentoring, monitoring and evaluation. The skills of the Caribbean diaspora are underutilized as a resource for disaster risk reduction and building resilience in the Caribbean. Harnessing the human capital of tertiary educated Caribbean 62 Confidential emigrants provides technical resources during and following disasters, pandemics and the ongoing climate change discussions. At the CARICOM level, a model for deploying the specialized skills of the Caribbean diaspora is lacking. While Caribbean countries have subscribed to the SDGs, Paris Agreement and other international accords these are nationally focused without considerations for value added through coordination and collaboration at the regional level. Caribbean countries have all developed long-term development plans with visionary 20 – 30 years development goals, however, new economic growth drivers in energy, blue and green economy and structural changes in tourism and agriculture will require new skills. National development planning occurs without sufficient attention to past lessons, best practices, and innovations from across the region. The dialogue, consensus building and pooling of expertise through existing regional institutions, and Caribbean Heads of Government Summits are imperative to build and sustain resilience in skills for the future. The future of work in the Caribbean and globally is evolving. Policymakers in the region have not fully assessed the future of work and the implications of technology, innovation and digitalization on productivity and competitiveness. This discussion has implications for transforming school curriculum at all educational levels. Education system resilience requires introspection, dialogue, risk taking, financing, agility, flexibility and data driven, evidence based disruptive reform. 63 Confidential 7. Quantifying readiness and Pathways to Education System Resilience To assist countries in monitoring their progress toward resilient education systems, the paper proposes a common framework and indicators. The indicators are presented through a “traffic light system” to identify key actions to build and improve resilience in education at the national level, while also recognizing the important role of regional coordination in the resilience of the education sector. The system presents three levels of maturity – nascent, emerging and established- alongside proposed pillars of resilience to build resilience in education. The proposed pillars for resilience draw upon the three main themes of the paper – continuity of education, infrastructure and skills – to elaborate and suggest possible actions to strengthen education systems. By building effective systems to enable smooth transition for continuity of education after disasters, having in place safe school infrastructure, and imparting broad based skills are essential for building resilience in education systems. The pillars suggested to track the development of education systems are: 1. Factors contributing to provision of education continuity during disasters and health shocks, namely the plans, strategies, support services, and the monitoring and evaluation frameworks to track effectiveness of the intervention and to monitor children at risk for dropout. 2. Metrics to test the capabilities of the system to function and support learners and the enabling environment for access to distance education. 3. Use of school facilities as temporary shelters, and decisions that affect the quality of the infrastructure such as site selection, design and construction, use of model safe school guidelines, and maintenance. 4. Data management systems including an EMIS and school mapping. 5. Safe school regulations, legal and institutional frameworks including legislation, plans, policies, and coordination mechanisms. 6. Alignment of the plans and policies with national DRM plan, resource allocation and monitoring and evaluation for safe schools. 7. The development of skills to support distance learning and build human capital in DRM and climate change. The framework to assess maturity of education systems towards resilience is presented in Figure 9. Caribbean countries are at different stages of maturity dependent on country context. In the Bahamas, prior to COVID-19 distance education was in use as a learning option for students in the remote islands and as such will be further along than Haiti, where challenges exist in internet connectivity and infrastructure. In the Bahamas, the resilience metrics on education continuity are well-established. Despite variances in progress across countries, the traffic light indicators provide metrics to build resilience in education systems over the long-term. 64 Confidential Figure 9. Classification for Assessing Maturity of Education Systems The proposed list of indicators to assist in monitoring progress and readiness towards resilience is presented in the Table 9. In using this guide countries will give due consideration to expanding the scope of monitoring to account for the peculiarities and differences in responses and policies required for disasters, based on type, and similarly for health shocks. The traffic light indicators support transitioning through the policy responses phases to shocks of coping and managing continuity. It is anticipated that the lessons learnt in the process will be integrated into policy responses for improving and accelerating responses to the shock and ultimately contribute to resilience in education. The suggested traffic light serves as a guide to set a baseline and subsequently track progress in building resilience in education. 65 Confidential Table 9. Traffic Light System to track progress in resilience in education Pillar Build Blocks Nascent Emerging Established Legislation/policy is in Some legislation/policy Appropriate national School Safety inclusion in progress or does not exists and includes legislation/policy exists relevant legislation and exist. school safety but and includes school policy requires amendments safety National Safe School Policy is in progress or Policy exists but is not National policy exists Policy non-existent. updated and it is up-to date Budget is insufficient, Budget for Plans have a satisfactory Resource allocation for less than 50 percent of implementation is budget for Safe School activities are achieved in moderately adequate, implementation. At least timeframe or is non- 50 - 95 percent of the 95 percent of existent. objectives/activities are objectives/activities are Enabling Environment achieved in the achieved within the timeframe. timeframe of the plan. Disaster risk ESP includes a ESP mainstreams Disaster Risk in Education considerations are substantive discussion of disaster risk Sector Plans minimally addressed in disaster risk considerations, tackling the Education Sector considerations, although cross-cutting issues in an Plan (ESP). not always cross-cutting integrated way. or integrated across sectors/issues. Coordination Mechanism No coordination Coordination Coordination for Safe Schools mechanism. mechanism exists but mechanisms for national key stakeholder roles school safety are and responsibilities are established, operational not well defined. and key stakeholders are assigned roles and responsibilities. Education continuity Education continuity Educational continuity plans are in progress, plans exist and are used plans exist and are used Education Continuity are not complete or in in 50 – 95 percent of in at least 95 percent of Continuity of Education Plans use by less than 50 schools. schools. percent of schools. Appropriate content in Appropriate content in Appropriate content in digital and other media digital and other media digital and other media for teaching and are available for are available for learning at different teaching and learning teaching and learning Remote learning content educational levels are for some educational for all educational levels being developed or are levels and some subject and all subject areas. not available. areas. 66 Confidential Monitoring and Monitoring and Monitoring and Monitoring and evaluation of evaluation plan is not evaluation plan is evaluation plan is effectiveness of distance available. available but not used to available and in use. education. assess effectiveness of distance education modalities. Resources to enable Less than 50 percent of 50 – 95 percent of At least 95 percent of remote learning (internet, households with households with households with devices, electricity, children of school age children of school age children of school age television, radio) have access to have access to resources have access to resources resources to support to support distance to support distance remote learning. learning. learning. Teacher Training Less than 50 percent of 50 – 95 percent of At least 95 percent of (technical and teachers have the skills teachers have the skills teachers have the skills pedagogical skills for to lead distance to lead distance to lead instruction using remote instruction) education by digital and education using digital digital and other media. other media. and other media. Support services Support services are Support services are Support services are (nutrition, mental health, available to less than 60 available to 60 – 95 available to at least 95 learning) to percent of vulnerable percent of vulnerable percent of vulnerable disadvantaged students. students or are non- students. students. existent. Linkages of EMIS and EMIS does not exist or is EMIS is securely linked EMIS is securely linked administrative databases not linked to other to some key to the most pertinent administrative administrative administrative databases. databases. databases to inform policy decisions. Operational standards for Operational standards Operational standards The contents of alternative use of schools for use of schools lacks on use of schools operational standards policy on use as includes some guidance for functioning of emergency shelters. which limits the use of schools, curtails its use schools as emergency as emergency shelters. shelters Education Infrastructure Safe school enabling Legislation, policy, safe Some legislation, policy, Appropriate national environment school plans and safe school plans exist legislation and policy institutional frameworks and includes school exists and includes are in progress or does safety but requires school safety and are in not exist. amendments use. Safe Learning School Safety Plans are School Safety Plans are School Safety plans are Environment in place in less than 50 in place, are up to date, in place, are up to date percent of schools and in 50 – 95 percent of in at least 95 percent of more than 25 percent of schools and more than schools and are aligned these are aligned with 50 percent of these with national DRM plan. the national DRM plan plans are aligned with or plans are non- the national DRM plan. existent. 67 Confidential Safe school standards Finalized safe school Finalized safe school Safe School Standards are in progress or non- standards exist but are standards exist and are existent. not a national policy. national policy Alignment of Safe School School Safety Plans are School Safety Plans are School Safety plans are plans and policies with in place in less than 50 in place, are up to date, in place, are up to date DRM plan percent of schools and in 50 – 95 percent of in at least 95 percent of more than 25 percent of schools and more than schools and are aligned these are aligned with 50 percent of these with national DRM plan. the national DRM plan plans are aligned with or plans are non- the national DRM plan. existent. Use of building codes and Less than 50 percent of 50 – 95 percent of new At least 95 percent of standards new and existing and existing educational new and existing schools are built or facilities are built or education facilities are retrofitted to safe retrofitted to safe school built or retrofitted to school standards; or standards. safe school standards. codes and standards are non-existent. Safe school prioritization There is a prioritization There is a prioritization There is a prioritization program scheme to replace 50 scheme to retrofit or scheme to retrofit or percent or less of replace 50 – 95 percent replace at least 95 unsafe schools to safe of unsafe schools to safe percent of unsafe school standards, or school standards. schools to safe school scheme is non-existent. standards. Monitoring and No monitoring and A monitoring and A monitoring and Evaluation framework for evaluation framework evaluation framework evaluation framework Safe Schools for National School for National School for National School Safety Plan. Safety Plan exists and it Safety Plan exists and it is updated annually or is updated bi-annually. less frequently. Human Capital Human capital Human capital Human capital development (climate development plan is in development plan to development plan to change, DRR, pandemics, progress and it is 50 expand skills for expand skills for among others) percent complete, or resilience exists and it is resilience exists, is up- plan is non-existent. somewhat used. to-date and used. Skills Development Technical DRM skills and Less than 50 percent Supply of 50 – 95 At least 95 percent certification of supply of technical skills percent of the technical supply of technical skills professionals to support tendering, skills. to support tendering, design and construction design and construction and operational and operational management of disaster management of disaster resilient educational resilient educational facilities 68 Confidential Training on School Safety Training for key Training for key Training for key Plans stakeholders in the stakeholders in the stakeholders in the implementation of implementation of implementation of School Safety Plans are School Safety Plans are School Safety Plans are convened at least once convened at least once convened at least once a year, or training every 6 months. per school term (3 times program is non-existent. per year). Climate change and DRR An age-specific climate An age-specific climate An age-specific climate curriculum framework change and DRR change and DRR change and DRR curriculum does not curriculum is in place curriculum is in place exist. and used in less than 95 and in use in at least 95 percent of schools. percent of schools. The traffic light is proposed as a starting point, and as such the weighting of readiness within the categories can be adjusted in line with countries’ context. To consolidate the reporting on the indicators, composite scores are derived for the main pillars. This is done by aggregating scores for the indicators. An indicator scored as established is assigned a score of 4, for emerging, a score of 3. The nascent category has a score from 1 – 2. A score of 2 is assigned if a country has commenced actions. However, if no progress or demonstrable output is available, a score of 1 is allocated. For example, this indicator is categorized as nascent ‘EMIS is in development or non-existent’ a score of 2 is given if an EMIS is in development and 1 for non-existent. The aggregation of the individual scores for indicators within a pillar result in a composite score, which is again assigned a level of progress on the scale of established, emerging or nascent. To assess the progress and readiness of disaster risk reduction and resilience in education systems composite scores are derived for each pillar, there are no perfect or imperfect scores. A rating of nascent for a building block of indicators suggests that it is an area for priority action as readiness is at initial stages. A rating of emerging points to ongoing actions towards disaster risk reduction and resilience with somewhat functioning systems in place as a basis for further improvements. A maturity level of established indicates limited need for priority action in that area, outside of revisions, adjustments and improvements to maintain the status of progress and readiness. The details on the traffic light scores and aligned categories of maturity are proposed in Table 10. Table 10. Traffic Light Scorecard Descriptor of Maturity Level Traffic Light Indicator Score Composite Score Established Green 4 3.5 – 4.0 Emerging Amber 3 2.5 – 3.4 Nascent Red 1 or 2 1.0 – 2.4 Country level analysis utilizing the traffic light system is undertaken for The Bahamas, Barbados, Dominica, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada, to identify the strengths and priority areas for action. The indicators for continuity of education are established in The Bahamas, emerging in Dominica, Grenada, Jamaica and Suriname and Nascent in Barbados, Saint Kitts and Nevis and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. Ministries of Education in the Caribbean have implemented short term measures during the pandemic to equip teachers with skills to deliver remote educational content, however, this is insufficient to build and sustain skills for resilience. Progress on education infrastructure is nascent in Barbados, Dominica and Suriname, and emerging in the Bahamas, Grenada, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and emerging in 69 Confidential Saint Lucia. The enabling environment for safe schools comprised of regulations, legal and institutional frameworks are available in the Caribbean with different levels of maturity. The creation of the Caribbean Safe School Initiative and high-level ownership through the Ministerial forum supports progress in this area. Despite the overarching framework for education infrastructure and safe schools, gaps exist in monitoring progress on safe schools and in the implementation and adherence to key protocols for education infrastructure such as use of education facility maintenance plan and prioritization program for safe schools. Resource allocation for safe schools is nascent in the Caribbean, and an area for priority action. Skills development for resilience is established in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines aided by the development of school curricula on disaster risk reduction and climate change and the availability of key personnel with skills for resilience. An audit on the skills for resilience at national levels across the Caribbean would be timely to assess gaps in human capital development for resilience, as these skills are nascent in three-quarter of the countries surveyed. Data, monitoring and evaluation is an area of weakness with more than one-half of countries recording nascent outcomes on monitoring for effectiveness of distance education, for education infrastructure, and on the availability of comprehensive data management systems to inform policy analysis. In Table 11, details on the country level traffic light scores are presented. The traffic light composite scores for enabling environment, continuity of education, infrastructure and skills development are outlined in Table 12. Table 11. Traffic Light Scores - Country Level St. Kitts and Grenadines St. Vincent Suriname Dominica Barbados Bahamas Grenada St. Lucia Jamaica Nevis and Pillar Build Blocks National safe school policy *** *** *** *** School safety inclusion in relevant *** *** *** *** legislation and policy Enabling Environment Alignment of safe school plans *** *** *** *** and policies with DRM plan Coordination mechanism for safe *** *** *** *** schools Resource allocation for safe *** *** *** *** school Disaster risk in education sector *** **** *** *** plans Education Continuity Plans Continuity of Education Remote learning content Monitoring and evaluation of effectiveness of distance education 70 Confidential Resources to enable remote learning Comprehensive and integrated Education Management Information System Teacher Training (technical and pedagogical skills for remote *** instruction) Support services (nutrition, mental health, learning) to *** *** *** *** disadvantaged students Caribbean Roadmap for School Safety: Enabling environment Caribbean Roadmap for School Safety: Pillar 1 - Safe Learning Environment Application of Model Safe School *** *** *** *** guidelines Development of Safe school Education Infrastructure *** *** *** *** standards Safe school prioritization program *** *** *** *** Training on school safety plans *** *** *** *** Use of building codes and *** *** *** *** standards Operational Standards for alternative use of schools Monitoring and Evaluation framework for Safe Schools Education Facility Maintenance *** Plan Human Capital development Development (climate change, DRR, pandemics, Skills among others) Climate change and DRR curriculum framework Source: Survey to Ministries of Education Notes: *** = Data unavailable to score. Red = nascent implying that the standard is not met and includes areas that are either not addressed at all or is being initiated; yellow = emerging implying that the standard is partly met, beyond initiation point but not final; and green = established, implying that the standard is entirely met. 71 Confidential Table 12. Traffic Light Composite Scores St. Kitts and Grenadines St. Vincent Suriname Dominica Barbados Bahamas Grenada St. Lucia Jamaica Nevis and Build Blocks Enabling Environment Continuity of Education Education Infrastructure Skills Development Source: Survey to Ministries of Education Notes: Red = nascent implying that the standard is not met and includes areas that are either not addressed at all or is being initiated; yellow = emerging implying that the standard is partly met, beyond initiation point but not final; and green = established, implying that the standard is entirely met. 72 Confidential 8. Policy Implications and Conclusions Revisiting Education System Resilience The evidence of learning loss arising from school closure combined with pre-existing learning poverty exacerbates the learning crisis. The challenges encountered by learners in accessing distance learning, the concomitant low rates of student participation and the inability of educators to compile system wide data to inform and improve distance education makes it an inferior replacement for school-based learning. In the coping phase of shock response, distance education is an alternative to keep some students engaged. The policy objective of governments after these shocks to education system is to ensure that students have immediate access to safe and child-friendly learning spaces to minimize the effects. The key inputs, processes, outputs and outcomes for building climate and shock resilient education systems are outlined in Figure 11. This centers on having in place the disaster risk management policies, education continuity programs, financial and material resources, technical skills, safe school infrastructure, and institutional frameworks. Capitalizing on preventive actions, exploiting opportunities, and creating buffers work together to make education more inclusive, effective in advance of shocks. The prevention measures related to education systems center on adaptation of existing facilities, boosting the adaptive capacity of key stakeholders to prepare for, cope and recover swiftly from shocks (Hallegatte, Rentschler and Rozenberg, 2020). Figure 11. Building climate and shock resilient education systems Building climate and shock resilient school infrastructure INPUTS MAIN PROCESSES OUTPUTS OUTCOMES School infrastructure operates under pre-defined Adopting DRM, climate Education Continuity Program solutions Delivery of education and change and ECP demand and supply Reduction in Learning Poverty policies continues at acceptable pre- Laws, policy and defined levels Human capital accumulation regulation, EMIS Reducing financial Teaching and learning exposure to schools Funding processes in safe and Equitable access and quality learning quality education for Ensuring resources Curriculum environments for ECP solutions all students Students are safe, Learning materials healthy and learning and resources Integrate DRM, ECP awareness, practice Teachers and Management of The education system resilience has Recovery of affected and skills administrative staff education system assests under a Build Back increased Better policy Safer and resilient Education Continuity Program (ECP) and school infrastructure School buildings recovery and reconstruction programs under (GPSS tools) implementation Access to other basic services Infrastructure Master Plan Households and Implementation and communities Integrating service providers into ECP adherence to DRM solutions School Emergency Plans Education System Resilience Source: (Alasino, 2020) 73 Confidential Roadmap for Education System Resilience Building resilience in education systems starts with an overall national commitment to green growth agenda. The European Green Deal is an example of a political framework to facilitate the commitments of different countries to mitigate environmental risks and impacts and transform the economies of the European Union for a sustainable future.21 The Caribbean lacks such a comprehensive regional framework to tackle climate and the related environmental shocks through integrated multi-sectoral green growth strategy. A Roadmap is presented in table 11 to accompany the Traffic Light System. The purpose of the Roadmap is to propose short, medium, and long terms priority actions to guide discussions on implementation and progress through the maturity phases of the Traffic Light System. To achieve resilience in education requires a rethink of current policies to be transformative and fit for purpose. Building education system resilience requires alignment with different existing policy and priority frameworks, while in parallel instituting and sustaining innovations around disaster risk reduction and climate change. The Roadmap outlines the key steps to inform education system resilience in the areas of education continuity, education infrastructure and skills development. The priority actions proposed in Table 11 are assigned to the policy response phases presented in Figure 3 of this paper (World Bank 2020c). An action with an indicative timeframe of phase 1 is assigned to the coping phase and these are short term activities. These policy interventions are geared to support education systems to cope with shocks. The Phase 2 actions are of medium-term duration and are geared towards managing continuity with controlled reopening of schools, recouping of learning loss, and expansion of skills training. The phase 3 actions are to improve and accelerate policy responses to progressively build and sustain education system resilience over the long-term. The implementation horizons for priority actions overlap across phases. Table 11. Roadmap for education system resilience Actions Indicative Indicators Timetable22 Continuity of Learning Implement school improvement plans to set Phases 1 - 3 • Average annual education priorities and monitor progress infrastructure damages and Use online assessment and learning tools powered by Phases 1 and 2 losses due to disasters and artificial intelligence to evaluate student’s pandemics knowledge, in terms of mastery of topics and • % of students out of school due readiness to progress with educational content, to to disasters and pandemics make learning more effective and efficient when • # of school days lost due to using distance education. disaster or % of annual school Identify priority topics in curriculum Phase 1 year lost as a result of disaster Curriculum reform Phases 2 and 3 • # of educator teaching days lost Definition and implementation of measures to Phase 2 due to disaster address learning loss, close achievement gaps, and reduce Learning Poverty 21 The European Green Deal: Striving to be the first climate-neutral continent, the EU’s plan to make the economies sustainable is available at: https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal_en 22 The proposed timelines follow framework presented in this paper in Figure 2. Phases of education system response to shocks 74 Confidential Actions Indicative Indicators Timetable22 Implement measures to protect health and safety of Phases 1 and 2 • # of schools with education students and educators and minimize learning loss, continuity and contingency especially for the disadvantaged. plans Develop systems for quality assurance in teacher Phase 2 • Plans for continuity of learning education completed and published Use artificial intelligence tools to reduce gaps in Phases 1 • School Improvement plans learning achievement during school closure. • Measure of learning loss Implement targeted support and communication Phases 1 and 2 • Learning Poverty reductions strategies aimed at students at risk of dropout Safeguard education budgets Phases 1 – 3 Build on lessons learnt during pandemics and Phases 2 and 3 disasters and integrate these into approaches to address future shocks to education systems. Infrastructure and Safe Schools23 Engage key policymakers in discussions on safe Phases 1 – 3 • % of schools assessed, school regulations, legal and institutional retrofitted and maintained to frameworks. safe school standards Re-evaluate how schools are designed and Phases 2 and 3 • Inventory of education facilities, constructed and set minimum standards for school their condition, exposure to infrastructure and uniformly adhere to these hazards and maintenance Create institutional ecosystem for safe schools Phase 2 – 3 history Develop coordination mechanism for DRR and CCA to Phases 2 and 3 • Asset management systems enable knowledge exchange and support with evidence-based implementation of safe school priorities. maintenance plans in place Create national school infrastructure database linked Phase 2 • Plans for use of schools as to EMIS with detailed geo-referenced mapping of shelters completed and education infrastructure including location published. coordinates, technical specifications and hazard data. • # of students with access to Revise and finalize relevant legislation for DRR and Phase 2 education in quality learning climate change environment which is safe and Undertake risk assessment and analysis of stock of Phase 2 healthy school infrastructure for safety, identify potential • % of new education facilities hazard risks and prioritize actions. constructed according to Prepare capacity audit for school spaces Phases 1 – 3 national standards and codes Develop Master Plan for Education Infrastructure Phase 3 • # of schools that undertake Develop guidelines for site selection, retrofitting, Phase 2 annual school drills for multiple rehabilitation and reconstruction of schools hazards Develop comprehensive and updated set of quality Phases 2 -3 • Protocols and standards for safe standards of learning spaces school infrastructure Develop Model Safe School Designs Phase 2 • Plan for use of schools as Institute renovation campaign for high-risk education Phases 2 and 3 emergency shelter linked to Infrastructure education continuity plans and Develop Quality Assurance system Phase 2 DRR strategy 23 The GFDRR Roadmap for Safer Schools, Guidance Note available at https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/gfdrr-roadmap-05.pdf and the 2nd Caribbean Safe School Ministerial Forum, Updated Caribbean Roadmap for School Safety available at https://www.preventionweb.net/files/63939_cssiupdatedroadmapapril2019.pdf provides further actions to improve school safety and minimize risk from natural disasters. 75 Confidential Actions Indicative Indicators Timetable22 Implement school rehabilitation and maintenance Phases 1 – 3 plans Skills for Resilience Revise curricula to incorporate CCA, DRR and aspects Phases 2 and 3 • # of schools that have of pandemics. integrated DRR and CCA into Review teacher training curriculum and pedagogical Phases 1 – 3 curriculum and teacher training practices and apply dynamic, interactive and • # of children with knowledge innovative teaching methods. and skills of DRR and CCA Assess human capital capacity for DRR, CCA and Phases 2 and 3 • Early warning system for resilience and determine skills gaps children at risk of dropout Identify the governance and institutional Phases 2 and 3 • DRM training and professional arrangements for skills development development plans for Draft National Human Capital Development Strategy Phases 2 and 3 education stakeholders Expand capacity to understand and manage climate Phases 2 and 3 • Systems for quality assurance in and environmental shocks which affect education teacher professional systems development and training Create training and skills development programs in Phases 2 and 3 • Technical capacity to manage DRR, CCA and resilience disaster risk to education Develop and implement national technology strategy Phases 2 and 3 infrastructure Produce a Caribbean Green Growth Strategy Phase 3 • Technology in education Circular Economy Roadmap Phase 3 strategy Data Establish an early warning system for students at risk Phases 1 and 2 • % of students out of school due of dropout to disasters and pandemics Use data and analytics for policy planning, evidence- Phases 2 and 3 • # of school days lost due to based decision making, forecasting and to build disaster or % of annual school scenarios for addressing future disasters and year lost as a result of disaster pandemics. • # of educator teaching days lost Develop accessible and interoperable national data Phases 2 and 3 due to disaster system • Measure of learning loss Establish Dashboard to monitor progress on Phases 2 and 3 • Learning Poverty resilience indicators • Education facilities database Create data governance structure with personnel, Phases 2 and 3 • Interoperable EMIS data infrastructure, strategy and networks Financing Develop Financing Strategy for education sector Phase 2 and 3 • # of countries with national DRR resilience including options for disaster risk financing and resilience and CCA policies Devise financial security scheme for education Phases 2 - 3 and plans for education sector infrastructure – insurance, contingency funds, among with assigned implementation others schedule and financing • Total borrowing available to private schools for retrofitting. • % recurrent expenditure • % capital expenditure Note: The indicative timetable assigns actions to different phases as follows: Phase 1 is coping; Phase 2 is managing continuity; and Phase 3 is improving and accelerating. 76 Confidential Conclusions The identified areas for priority attention to build resilience in education systems are as below. These action areas are in direct response to the four key questions addressed in the discourse - magnitude of expected learning losses, achieving continuity of education to minimize learning loss, closing gaps in disaster resilience of school infrastructure stock, and demand and supply factors for skills development for more resilient Caribbean societies in the future. Invest in data management information systems to monitor and evaluate human capital development. The metrics to monitor, evaluate and measure learning outcomes during disasters and health shocks and generate system level information in the Caribbean are few, as producing comparative measurements can be hard. As countries in the Caribbean move forward with continuity of education during COVID-19, it is essential that they monitor and evaluate the quality and effectiveness of distance learning and utilize this data to improve teaching and learning and inform policy; incorporate remediation strategies and accelerate learning where needed to minimize learning loss; support learners, teachers and caregivers through a suite of complementary services; review, plan and build on lessons learnt to develop new strategies for multi- modality distance learning; focus on all educational levels including the important early childhood level, students with special education needs and the TVET level. Finally, focus equally on students from diverse socioeconomic, ethnic, and geographical circumstances. To attain the benefits of education, learning matters and building resilience into systems to mitigate the deleterious effects of shocks is a policy imperative. Support teaching and learning with connectivity and pedagogy and content for remote learning and DRR. The results of the simulations, analysis of dependency ratios and household assets to support teaching points to learning loss. Measures to address quality of teaching and learning and equity are important components of a response strategy to address the identified learning loss from school closures. The quality of education is a fundamental element in reducing achievement gaps arising from inequities. The immediate consideration in the delivery of distance education at the onset of COVID-19 was access to instruction with less regard to quality of education. As countries take stock of the initial effectiveness of remote learning it is important to fill the gaps in teaching and learning. Children from vulnerable households are more at risk for dropout, record wider achievement gaps in learning, and are less likely to have access to the tools for distance education than their peers from higher income groups. To arrest declines in achievement gaps and recoup losses in learning, special programs are needed to get children at risk for dropout back into schools and provided with the pedagogical, social safety nets and socioemotional support to accelerate their learning. In the future, the digitalization of government and the linking of social protection systems to education management information systems to trigger responses for services, will cushion the impacts of natural disaster and health shocks on low-income households. Parents and caregivers are main actors in supporting education continuity and based on recent evidence, well-educated mothers are better poised to protect children from learning loss after disasters (Andrabi, Daniels, and Das, 2020). Providing children from disadvantaged households with the tools without addressing the educational shortcomings of mothers where these exist is counterproductive. As policymakers plan to address the challenges of education quality and equity it is important to enhance the skills of parents, especially mothers, given their roles as main actors to support continuity of learning. 77 Confidential For students to realize their full potential in the future, they need a range of skills and knowledge to facilitate the mastery and application of learning and later for functioning in employment. Most importantly to gain these skills, children must be in school and participating actively. The focus of distance education during COVID-19 was mainly on cognitive skills to the demise of social and emotional learning and technical skills development. However, they are all important especially in setting the foundation in early years, given the evidence on learning poverty, and learning outcomes on regional examinations. Address learning loss and inequities in education to reduce and reverse learning poverty in existence prior to external shocks. Time spent out of school contributes to learning loss and this has implications for future earnings of students. Building and retrofitting schools to resilience standards are important to limit the level of damage to education facilities during disasters and shortens the duration of school closures following disasters . Recent experience in El Salvador and Dominican Republic revealed school facilities which were built with “modern standards” are neither learning-oriented nor disaster resilient. To minimize these problems in construction of new education facilities, a comprehensive and updated set of quality standards of learning spaces are needed. The implementation of these standards will reduce physical property damage and contribute to immediate occupancy disasters to facilitate learning continuity. There is a need in Caribbean countries, to focus on lessons learned from past health shocks and good practices to reduce physical damage from disasters; these have been neglected to prioritize space optimization, agile implementation, and reactive policy decisions. Reflect on the role of learning spaces in the community. Schools function as social spaces for communities and in times of disasters as emergency shelters. In the latter case, where housing infrastructure are significantly damaged and destroyed by natural disasters, the return of schools to main use is delayed. Recent experiences in El Salvador and Dominican Republic have proved school facilities are central to community well-being. Both countries are using school facilities to implement public policies to overcome health, nutrition, or recreational challenges at community level. The development of operational guidelines for the different uses of schools, including as emergency shelters, are essential for the complementary multi-sector approach to education system resilience. The institutional structures, frameworks, and guidance documents for education infrastructure and skills for resilience are in place in the Caribbean and these form the basis for building resilience. There are benefits and economies of scale to be gained from utilizing regional approaches for continuity of education; sharing of expertise and best practices to improve education infrastructure; and development and operationalization of structures to implement skills for resilience in the Caribbean. Building resilience into education systems quickens the recovery from disasters and pandemics. Schools have a pivotal role to develop the change agents for resilience by transfer of knowledge and skills and cultivating behaviors and attitudes. Education system resilience has to focus on multi-hazards and is dependent on integrated ecosystems created in health, social protection, water and sanitation, housing, transportation and urban sectors. To build and sustain education system resilience requires the involvement of multiple stakeholders including the system beneficiaries, households, government, civil society, private sector and development partners. Finally, resilience requires sustained financing. 78 Confidential References Acemoglu, D., and P. Restrepo. 2020. Robots and jobs: Evidence from US labor markets. Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 128. Issue 6 Acevedo, S. 2016. “Gone with the wind: Estimating hurricane and climate change costs in the Caribbean.” IMF Working Paper WP/16/199. International Monetary Fund Washington DC. Akter, S. and B. Mallick. 2013. “The Poverty vulnerability resilience nexus: Evidence from Bangladesh.” Ecological Economics Vol. 96 pp 114-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.10.008 Alasino, E. (2020). World Bank staff internal presentation, part of the work for the Global Program for Safer Schools (GPSS). Alderman, H., J. Hoddinott, and B. Kinsey. 2006. Long term consequences of early childhood malnutrition, Oxford Economic Papers, Volume 58, Issue 3, Pages 450 - 474, https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpl008 Alexander, K.L., D. R. Entwisle, and L. Steffel-Olson. 2007. “Lasting consequences of the summer learning gap.” American Sociological Review, 72 (2), 167-180. Alexander D. 1997. “The study of natural disasters, 1977–1997: some reflections on a changing field of knowledge.” Disasters 21(4):284–304. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467- 7717.00064. Andrabi T., B. Daniels, J. Das. 2020. Human Capital Accumulation and Disasters: Evidence from the Pakistan Earthquake of 2005, RISE Working Paper Series. 20/039. https://doi.org/10.35489/BSG- RISEWP_2020/039. Arteaga Garavito, M., D. Beuermann, L. Giles Alvarez, and others 2020. “COVID-19: The Caribbean Crisis: Results from an online Survey.” http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0002602 Artuç, E., F. Docquier, C. Özden, and C. Parsons. 2015. “A Global Assessment of Human Capital Mobility: The Role of Non-OECD Destinations.” World Development 65 (1): 6–26. Atteberry, A. and A. McEachin. 2019. “School’s Out: The Role of Summers in Understanding Achievement Disparities.” (EdWorkingPaper: 19-82). doi: 10.26300/2mam-bp02 Aucejo, E. M. and T. Foy-Romano. 2016. “Assessing the effect of school days and absences on test score performance.” Economics of Education Review, 55, pp.70-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2016.08.007 Azevedo, J.P., K. Geven, D. Goldemberg, A. Hasan, S. Aroob-Iqbal. 2020a "Country tool for simulating the potential impacts of COVID-19 school closures on schooling and learning outcomes. Version 4.3”. World Bank, Washington D.C Azevedo, J.P., A. Hasan, D. Goldemberg, S. Aroob- Iqbal, K. Geven. 2020b. “Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates. “ 79 Confidential Policy Research Working Paper; No. 9284. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33945 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.” Baez, J., A. de la Fuente, and I. Santos. 2010. Do Natural Disasters Affect Human Capital? An Assessment Based on Existing Empirical Evidence. 62. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1672172# Baker, M. 2013. “Industrial actions in schools: strikes and student achievement.” Canadian Journal of Economics. 46: 1014-1036. doi:10.1111/caje.12035 Beaglehole, B., C. Bell, C. Frampton, and S. Moor. 2016. “The impact of the Canterbury earthquakes on successful school leaving for adolescents.” Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health. Vol 41 (1) pp. 70-73. https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.12625 Belot, M., and D. Webbink. 2010. “Do Teacher Strikes Harm Educational Attainment of Students?” LABOUR, 24: 391–406. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9914.2010.00494.x Caribbean Examination Council 2020. “Annual Report 2019.” https://www.cxc.org/cxc-annual-report- 2019/ CDEMA. 2014. “Regional Comprehensive Disaster Management and Programming Framework 2014- 2024.” https://www.cdema.org/CDMStrategy2014-2024.pdf CDEMA. 2017. “Building a Caribbean pathway for disaster resilience in the Caribbean Community. CDEMA. 2017. Antigua and Barbuda Declaration on School Safety CDEMA. 2020. Caribbean Roadmap on School Safety, Second Ministerial Forum Report. https://www.preventionweb.net/files/63939_2ndcaribbeansafeschoolministerialfo.pdf Cobo, C. and I. Sanchez Ciarrusta. 2020. “Successful examples of scaling up teaching and learning in response to COVID-19.” World Bank Blogs April 2020. https://blogs.worldbank.org/education/successful-examples-scaling-teaching-and-learning-response- covid-19 Cooper, H., B. Nye, K. Charlton, J. Lindsay, and S. Greathouse. 1996. “The effects of summer vacation on achievement test scores: A narrative and meta-analytic review.” Review of Educational Research, 66 (3), 227-268. doi: 10.3102/00346543066003227 Davioli, M. 2012. “Disaster Management Structures in the Caribbean. Found in Mental Health and Psychosocial Support in Disaster Situations in the Caribbean.” Washington, D.C.: PAHO, https://www.paho.org/disasters/index.php?option=com_docman&view=download&category_slug=boo ks&alias=1970-mental-health-and-psychosocial-support-in-disaster-situations-in-the-caribbean-chapter- 2&Itemid=1179&lang=en de Janvry, A., F. Finan, E. Sadoulet, and R. Vakis. 2006. “Can Conditional Cash Transfer Programs Serve as Safety Nets in Keeping Children at School and from Working When Exposed to Shocks?” Journal of Development Economics 79: 349–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2006.01.013 80 Confidential Deopersad, C., Persaud, C., Chakalall, Y., Bello, O. and others. 2020. “Assessment of the Effects and Impacts of Hurricane Dorian in The Bahamas August 2020” https://publications.iadb.org/en/assessment-of-the-effects-and-impacts-of-hurricane-dorian-in-the- bahamas Docquier, F., and H. Rapoport. 2012. “Globalization, Brain Drain, and Development.” Journal of Economic Literature 50 (3): 681–730. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jel.50.3.681 Duff, E. M, and E. S. Cooper. 1994. Neural tube defects in Jamaica following Hurricane Gilbert.” American journal of public healthvol. 84,3: 473-6. doi:10.2105/ajph.84.3.473 Fazey, I., J. Fazey, J. Fischer, K. Sherren, J. Warren, R. Noss, and S. Dovers. 2007. Adaptive capacity and learning to learn as leverage for social–ecological resilience. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 5. 10.1890/060118. Filmer, D., H. Rogers, N. Angrist, S. Sabarwal. 2018. “Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling: Defining A New Macro Measure of Education.” Policy Research Working Paper; No. 8591. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30464 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.” ECLAC. 2018. “Irma and Maria by numbers.” Focus Magazine of the Caribbean Development and Cooperation Committee. Issue 1. https://repositorio.cepal.org/bitstream/handle/11362/43446/1/FOCUSIssue1Jan-Mar2018.pdf EM-DAT. 2020. International Disaster Database. Gargiulio, C. and A. Bardone. 2014. “Learning in Twenty-First Century Schools: Note 6- Norms and Costs of School Infrastructure.” Inter-American Development Bank. https://publications.iadb.org/en/learning- twenty-first-century-schools-note-6-norms-and-costs-school-infrastructure Gelli, A.2015. “School feeding and girls’ enrollment: the effects of alternative implementation modalities in low-income settings in sub-Saharan Africa,” Frontiers in Public Health 3(76) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4440399/ GADRRRES, & UNISDR. (2017). Comprehensive School Safety Framework. https://www.preventionweb.net/files/51335_cssbooklet2017updated.pdf Goodman, J. 2014. “Flaking out: Student absences and snow days as disruptions of instructional time” No. w20221. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w20221.pdf Government of Dominica. 2017. “Post-Disaster Needs Assessment Hurricane Maria, September 18, 2017.” https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/Dominica_mp_012418_web.pdf Government of Dominica. 2015. “Rapid Damage and Impact Assessment Tropical Storm Erika, August 27, 2015.” https://info.undp.org/docs/pdc/Documents/BRB/Commonwealth%20of%20Dominica%20- %20Rapid%20Damage%20and%20Needs%20Assessment%20Final%20Report%20-Oct5.pdf 81 Confidential Government of Haiti, Ministry of National Education and Professional Development. 2020. “Practical Guide, norms, prototypes and recommendations for the construction of schools in Haiti. https://menfp.gouv.ht/#/documents/official.” Hallegatte, S., J. Rentschler, J. Rozenberg. 2020. Adaptation Principles: A Guide for Designing Strategies for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34780 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.” Hallegatte, S., J. Rentschler, B. Walsh. 2018. “Building Back Better: Achieving Resilience through Stronger, Faster, and More Inclusive Post-Disaster Reconstruction.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29867 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.” Hallegatte, S. A. Vogt-Schilb, M. Bangalore, J. Rozenberg. 2017. “Unbreakable: Building the Resilience of the Poor in the Face of Natural Disasters.” Climate Change and Development: Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/25335 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO Hallgarten, J. 2020. “Evidence on effort to mitigate the negative educational impacts of past disease outbreaks.” Educational Development Trust. https://opendocs.ids.ac.uk/opendocs/bitstream/handle/20.500.12413/15202/793_mitigating_educatio n_effects_of_disease_outbreaks.pdf?sequence=6 Hampden-Thompson, G. and C. Galindo. 2015. “Family structure instability and the educational persistence of young people in England.” British Educational Research Journal, vol. 41. Issue 5, pp 749- 766 https://doi.org/10.1002/berj.3179 Hanushek, E. A., P.E. Peterson, L.M. Talpey and L. Woessmann. 2019. “The Achievement Gap Fails to Close. Half century of testing shows persistent divide between haves and have-nots.” Education Next vol. 19, Issue No. 3 https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1218474 Hanushek, E. A., M. Piopinnik, M. and S. Wiederhold. 2019. “Do smarter teachers make smarter students?” Education Next, State Policy, Teachers and Teaching vol 19. No.2. https://www.educationnext.org/do-smarter-teachers-make-smarter-students-international-evidence- cognitive-skills-performance/ Holloway A. 2015. Strategic mobilisation of higher education institutions in disaster risk reduction capacity building: experience of Periperi U. Global Assessment Report on disaster risk reduction. Geneva, Switzerland: UNISDR; 2014. https://doi.org/ 10.13140/RG.2.1.5014.8081. Holloway, A., A. Triyanti, I. Rafliana, S. Yasukawa, and C. de Kock. 2019. “Leave no field behind: Future- ready skills for a risky world” IDB. 2015. “Learning in Twenty-First Century Schools: Comparative Analysis of school infrastructure planning and management systems in 12 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, Note 9.” https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/Learning-in-Twenty-First-Century-Schools- Note-9-Comparative-Analysis-of-School-Infrastructure-Planning-and-Management-Systems-in-12- Countries-in-Latin-America-and-the-Caribbean.pdf 82 Confidential International Telecommunications Union. 2019. ITU World Telecommunications ICT Indicators Database. https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-D/Statistics/Pages/stat/default.aspx ITU Jæger, M. M., and E.H. Blaabæk. 2020. “Inequality in learning opportunities during Covid-19: Evidence from library takeout. “Research in social stratification and mobility, 68, 100524. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rssm.2020.100524 Jaume, D., and A. Willén. 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Teacher Strikes: Evidence from Argentina," Journal of Labor Economics 37, no. 4 (October 2019): 1097-1139. https://doi.org/10.1086/703134 Kone, Z. L., and C. Özden 2017. “Brain Drain, Gain and Circulation.” KNOMAD Working Paper 19 https://www.knomad.org/sites/default/files/2017- 04/KNOMAD%20WP19_Brain%20Drain%20gain%20and%20circulation.pdf Kousky, C., 2016. “Impacts of Natural Disasters on Children.” Future of Children vol. 26. No. 1 pp 73–92. https://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1101425.pdf Kuhfeld, M., and B. Tarasawa. 2020. “The COVID-19 slide: What summer learning loss can tell us about the potential impact of school closures on student academic achievement” https://www.nwea.org/content/uploads/2020/05/Collaborative-Brief_Covid19-Slide-APR20.pdf Lai, B. S., A-M., Esnard, C. Wyczalkowski, R. Savage, and H. Shah. 2019. Trajectories of School Recovery After a Natural Disaster: Risk and Protective Factors. Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy, 10(1), 32–51. https://doi.org/10.1002/rhc3.12158 Lucas, M., J. Nelson, and D. Sims. 2020. “Schools’ Responses to Covid-19: Pupil Engagement in remote learning.” National Foundation for Educational Research and Nuffield Foundation https://www.nfer.ac.uk/media/4073/schools_responses_to_covid_19_pupil_engagement_in_remote_l earning.pdf Mcintyre, A., A. El-Ashram, M. Ronci, J. Reynaud, N. Che, K. Wang, S. Acevedo, M. Lutz, F. Strodel, A. Osueke, and H. Yun 2016. “Caribbean Energy: macro-related challenges.” IMF Working paper wp/16/53 https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2016/wp1653.pdf Meyer, F., K. Meissel, and S. McNaughton. 2017. Patterns of literacy learning in German primary schools over the summer and the influence of home literacy practices. Journal of Research in Reading 40(3), pp.233-253. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9817.12061 Muñoz, S., and I. Ötker. 2018. “Building resilience to natural disasters in the Caribbean requires greater preparedness.” IMF Washington DC.: IMF. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2018/12/07/NA120718-Building-Resilience-to-Natural- Disasters-in-Caribbean-Requires-Greater-Preparedness OECS. 2020. Education Digital Digest 2017 – 2018. https://www.oecs.org/our- work/knowledge/library/education/oecs-education-statistical-digest/oecs-education-digital-digest- 2017-2018 83 Confidential PAHO. 2019. “Caribbean Action Plan on Health and Climate Change.” Washington, D.C.: PAHO https://iris.paho.org/handle/10665.2/38566 PAHO. 2016. “Economic Dimensions of Non-Communicable Disease in Latin America and the Caribbean.” Disease Control Priorities. 3. ed. Companion Volume. Washington, DC: PAHO, https://iris.paho.org/bitstream/handle/10665.2/28501/9789275119051_eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowe d=y PAHO, UNIAFT, UNDP 2018. The Case for Investment in Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases in Jamaica: Evaluating the return on investment of selected tobacco, alcohol, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease interventions. Washington, D.C.: UNIAFT, UNDP, and PAHO Park, R. J., J. Goodman, M. Hurwitz, and J. Smith. 2020. "Heat and Learning." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 12 (2): 306-39. DOI: 10.1257/pol.20180612 Park, J. R., J. Goodman, and P.A. Behrer. 2020 “Learning is inhibited by heat exposure, both internationally and within the United States.” Nature Human Behaviour. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-00959-9 Pensiero, N., A. Kelly, and C. Bokhove. 2020. “Learning inequalities during the Covid-19 pandemic: how families cope with home-schooling.” University of Southampton 20pp. (doi:10.5258/SOTON/P0025). https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/442619/1/Covid_paper_20.07.2020.pdf Perdikou S; J. Horak, L. Halounová, R. Palliyaguru and A. Lees. 2016. “The capacity of European higher educational institutions to address threats imposed by natural hazards.” Natural Hazards. 81: 1447–66. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2139-2. Rockoff, J. E. 2008. “Does mentoring reduce turnover and improve skills of new employees? Evidence from teachers in New York City.” NBER Working Papers 13868, National Bureau of Economic Research. https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/13868.html Sacerdote, B. 2012. “When the Saints Go Marching Out: Long-Term Outcomes for Student Evacuees from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.” American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 4(1):109-35. January 2012, 109-135. https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/ app.4.1.109 Steegers-Theunissen, R., J. Twigt, V. Pestinger, and K. Sinclair. 2013. The periconceptional period, reproduction and long-term health of offspring: the importance of one-carbon metabolism, Human Reproduction Update, Volume 19, Issue 6, Pages 640–655, https://doi.org/10.1093/humupd/dmt041 Selby, D., and F. Kagawa. 2014. “Disaster Risk Reduction in the School Curriculum: The Present and Potential Role of Development Agencies and the Implications for the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005- 2015 Successor.” UNISDR. https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/bgdocs/inputs/Kagawa%20and%20 Selby,%202014.pdf Stephenson, T. S., L. Vincent, T. Allen, C. Van Meerbeeck, N. McLean, and others. 2014. “Changes in extreme temperature and precipitation in the Caribbean region, 1961–2010.” International Journal of Climatology 34, 2957–2971, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3889. 84 Confidential Susskind, D. 2020. A world without work: Technology, automation and how we should respond. Penguin Books. UNESCO. 2019. “Global Monitoring Report: Meeting Commitments, are countries on track to achieve SDG 4?” Paris: UNESCO. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000369009/PDF/369009eng.pdf.multi UNESCO, UNICEF, World Bank, World Food Program, and UNHCR. 2020. “Supplement to Framework for reopening schools: Emerging lessons from country experiences in managing the process of reopening schools.” UNIAFT, UNDP, and PAHO. 2018. “The Case for Investment in Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases in Jamaica: Evaluating the return on investment of selected tobacco, alcohol, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease interventions.” Washington, D.C. https://iris.paho.org/handle/10665.2/49693 White, J. 2018. “Children’s social circumstances and educational outcomes. Edinburgh: NHS Health Scotland.” http://www.healthscotland.scot/media/2049/childrens-social-circumstances-and- educational-outcomes-briefing-paper.pdf WHO. 2018. WHO Global Health workforce statistics https://www.who.int/hrh/statistics/hwfstats/en/ http://www.who.int/hrh/statistics/hwfstats/). WHO. 2020. Global Health Observatory data. Density of physicians (total number per 1000 population, latest available year) https://www.who.int/gho/health_workforce/physicians_density/en/ World Bank. 2018a. “Sint Maarten National Recovery and Resilience Plan: A Roadmap to Building Back Better.” World Bank. 2018b. “The Human Capital Project.” World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30498 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.” http://hdl.handle.net/10986/30498 World Bank. 2019a. “Ending Learning Poverty: What Will It Take?” World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/32553 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.” http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32553 World Bank. 2019b. “Country Learning Poverty Briefs.” https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/education/brief/country-learning-poverty-briefs World Bank. 2019c. “World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work.” Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1328-3. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO World Bank. 2020a. “Caribbean Digital Transformation Project” http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/848701593136915061/pdf/Dominica-Grenada-St-Lucia- 85 Confidential St-Vincent-and-the-Grenadines-and-the-Organization-of-Eastern-Caribbean-States-Caribbean-Digital- Transformation-Project-Digital-Caribbean.pdf World Bank. 2020b. “Lessons for Education during the COVID-19 crisis.” https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/edutech/brief/lessons-for-education-during-covid-19-crisis World Bank. 2020c. “The COVID-19 Pandemic: Shocks to education and policy responses.” https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/33696 World Bank. 2020d. “The Human Capital Index 2020 Update: Human Capital in the Time of COVID-19.” World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34432 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.” World Bank. 2018. “Building regulation for Resilience. Converting disaster experience into a safer built environment: the case of Japan.” http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/162361520295760910/jp- publication-drmhubtokyo-convertingdisaster-experience-into-a-safer-built-environment.pdf Yarime M., G. Trencher, T. Mino, R. Scholz, L. Olsson, B. Ness, and others. 2012. “Establishing sustainability science in higher education institutions: towards an integration of academic development, institutionalization, and stakeholder collaborations.” Sustain Science 2012;7 (Supplement 1):101–13. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-012-0157-5 86 Confidential