Bonaire Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study © 2023 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank encourages the dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Contact Queries and comments can be addressed to Mr. Doekle Wielinga, Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, e-mail: dwielinga@worldbank.org. Design and Layout: Natalia Andrea de Windt Photography: Bonaire’s Media Hub Pages: 13, 15, 17, 22, 36, 41, 57, 59, 61, 66, 95, 108 Contributors Paloma Zapata Martine Bakker Stefan Leeffers Kareline Van Der Linden Darice Solognier Bart Rutten Contents Abbreviations Abbreviations 5 ADR Average daily rate Introduction 6 AoM Tailor-made waste program/ Afvalbeheer op Maat BC Island Council/ Bestuurscollege Background and context of the study 6 BES Bonaire, Sint Eustatius en Saba Objective of the study 6 BIA Bonaire International Airport Methodological Approach 7 BNMP Bonaire National Marine Park Bonaire’s current Urban Carrying Capacity Pressure 9 BONHATA Bonaire Hotel and Tourism Association Economic development 9 BOPEC Bonaire Petroleum Corporation Resident population development 12 CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate Tourism development 18 CBS Statistics Netherlands/Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek Resident Sentiment Survey Results 22 CGB ContourGlobal Bonaire Introduction 22 CO2 Carbon Dioxide Survey Results 24 DCNA Dutch Caribbean Nature Alliance Bonaire Urban Carrying Capacity Challenges 30 DRFTA Disaster Risk Financing Technical Assistance Fragmented Development Policy 30 EIA Environmental Impact Assessment Narrow distribution of economic benefits 36 EU European Union Loss of cultural identity and social cohesion 42 FCB Fundashon Cas Bonaireano FDI Foreign Direct Investment Depletion of high-value natural ecosystems 51 GHG Greenhouse Gas Island Population Growth Scenarios 58 GDP Gross Domestic Product Introduction 58 HGB Bonaire Mortgage Guarantee/ Hypotheek Garantie Bonaire Status quo growth model 59 IND Immigration and Naturalisation Agency Growth model scenario comparisons 64 IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature Urban Carrying Capacity Potential 66 MJOP Multi-Year Road Program/Meerjarenprogramma Wegen Bonaire Cohesive development policy 67 MT Metric Tonne Access to affordable housing 67 NMBP Nature and Environment Policy Plan (implementation) Wide and fair benefit distribution 68 OCTs Caribbean Overseas Countries and Territories Social equity and cultural integration 68 OLB Public Entity Bonaire/Openbaar Lichaam Bonaire Effective productive infrastructure 69 RCN National Office for the Caribbean Netherlands / Rijksdienst Caribisch Nederland Protection and Conservation of natural resources 70 RESEMBID Resilience, Sustainable Energy and Marine Biodiversity Programme Concluding Remarks 71 RHI Reef Health Index List of References 72 ROB Spatial Development Plan/ Ruimtelijk Ontwikkelingsplan Bonaire SDM Sustainable Development Masterplan APPENDICES 74 STINAPA Bonaire National Parks Foundation / Stichting Nationale Parken Bonaire APPENDIX A 74 STMP Strategic Tourism Master Plan APPENDIX B 74 TCB Tourism Corporation Bonaire APPENDIX C 75 UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization APPENDIX D 78 UNWTO United Nations World Tourism Organization APPENDIX E 80 WEB Water-en Energiebedrijf Bonaire N.V. WSNP Washington Slagbaai National Park WTTC World Travel and Tourism Council WWF World Wildlife Fund 6 Introduction The outputs of this study are: logistic population growth model.Subsequently, the concept of carrying capacity has been • Snapshot of the current development status extended. It is often used to examine the extent Background and context of as it relates to economic development, to which a region’s development is limited in the study Considering the path that sustainable urban population growth, visitor growth, and different aspects such as the environment, development can or should take on Bonaire is infrastructure development. economics, geography, and society. In the wake of COVID-19, tourism on Bonaire essential. Sustainable urban development is built is showing signs of rapid and near-complete on three pillars: socioeconomic sustainability, • Identification of the resident sentiment With the rapid advancement of industrialization recovery. At the same time, the population has towards the island development and their and urbanization, tensions between limited physical-ecological sustainability, and cultural continued to grow significantly. In 2019 and experiential carrying capacity resources and unlimited development demand sustainability. Managing resources that balance a 2020 this growth was driven primarily by net community’s economic growth while balancing • Identification of island growth carrying are becoming increasingly common. To address immigration into Bonaire from other islands cultural integrity, biological diversity, social capacity indicators and priority issues this issue, urban carrying capacity evaluations in the Dutch Caribbean, Central and South structures, and functioning infrastructure is have gained practical significance for effective America, and European Netherlands. Bonaire’s • The advantages and disadvantages of vital for sustainable development. resource allocation and territorial spatial planning. potential growth scenarios economy is heavily concentrated on tourism Studies addressing urban carrying capacity are and, in recent years, has experienced a steady The World Bank, through the European Union • Recommendations to address the salient still nascent and include only a narrow body of increase in foreign direct investment (FDI), mainly (EU)-funded Disaster Risk Financing Technical developmental issues and establish a literature, highly theoretical and with limited in real estate. As in other Caribbean islands, Assistance (DRFTA) for Caribbean Overseas sustainable growth model applications. the tourism-based economy has generated Countries and Territories (OCTs), will work a flourishing real estate market, and demand closely with Bonaire’s government to assess The desired outcome is to define desired For this study, the urban carrying capacity is after the pandemic has accelerated. the island’s carrying capacity in light of the conditions and thresholds for tourism growth defined as the maximum amount of human social rapid growth in tourism, population, and real and associated impacts from tourism that and economic activity that can be supported A rapid recovery of tourism and the influx of estate development. Will do this by developing balances: by urban built space; while ensuring ecosystem FDI present Bonaire both opportunities and a study assessing the island’s carrying capacity security and social stability within a given • Sustainable economic development and challenges. Tourism and FDI bring opportunities as a function of its environment, economic regional framework. Considering the demand inclusive growth to create employment, reduce poverty, stimulate activity, culture, social structure, infrastructure, for built space, use of existing resources, and regional development, and fund the maintenance land use, and climate resilience. • Improvement of the quality of life of Island bearing potential through policy or technology and protection of ecosystems. However, the residents adjustments. urbanization associated with tourism and FDI • can also magnify the challenges and constraints Objective of the study Protection and conservation of natural and This study used the comprehensive carrying cultural heritage in Bonaire’s pursuit of sustainable development capacity “pressure-capacity-potential” theoretical The main objective is to assess Bonaire’s carrying • Increase the quality of the visitor experience because of its ecological fragility and economic framework as a guiding principle. From the point capacity to develop tourism and manage vulnerability. The continuous threat of climate of view of the coordination and integration of development, by providing an analytical tool change and natural disasters highlights these to determine growth scenarios and simulate Methodological Approach these “three forces,” this model analyzes the threats. These threats and their resulting impacts degree of stress on urban space and provides impacts. The study will give the Executive Council need to be addressed to promote resilient The term “Carrying Capacity” was initially derived systematic answers to the questions of what of Bonaire the information and tools to inform growth on Bonaire. from the Belgian mathematician Verhulst’s pressure urban built space is under in a given a growth strategy for mobilizing the island’s research on ecological issues and resource period, how high its resilience is, and to what institutional, financial, and technical resources. availability in natural environments in the early extent it can support intensive human activities. 1800s. However, the 1950s textbook on ecology (Li B et al., 2022). See the conceptual model by Eugene Odum popularized the term in its shown in Figure 1. modern meaning as the equilibrium value of the 8 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 9 Bonaire’s current Urban Carrying Capacity Pressure • Population increase, • Urban development • he theoretical poten- T Economic development permanent and tem- and construction tial that can be exploit- porary visitors space determined by ed and the practical In the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, Bonaire’s real GDP growth mostly outpaced that • Cultivated land de- land, water, environ- potential that can of the other small Caribbean island states, particularly other Dutch Caribbean islands. Figure 2 crease ment, ecology and be realized through • Water resource short- disaster policies, funds, and en- shows that, in 2018 and 2019, the average growth of other Dutch Caribbean islands was negative, ages gineering technology primarily due to the economic downturn on Sint Maarten, Saba, and Sint Eustatius in the • Construction land aftermath of Hurricane Irma in September 2017. shortages • Ecological and envi- Figure 2: Real GDP growth in the Caribbean and the Netherlands, 2013–2020 ronmental destruction Bonaire Aruba, Curacao, Sint Maarten, Sint Eustatius, Saba Caribbean small states Netherlands 9% 5% 0% Source: Li B et al., 2022 -5% -9% Bonaire is highly dependent on economic 3. A resident sentiment survey was conducted -14% activity from tourism, and its population density in August 2022, targeting all segments of the -18% is affected by the growth in temporary visitors. population who are permanent residents. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Therefore, the UNEP/MAP/PAP ‘Guidelines Source: Statistics Netherlands Bonaire/The Hague/Heerlen, World Bank, and OECD National Accounts data files. for carrying capacity assessment for tourism 4. Stakeholders’ workshops were held in November Note: Caribbean small states include Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, in Mediterranean coastal areas’ was used as 2022 to review the critical issues identified in the Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. an appropriate reference. These guidelines desktop research and resident survey. Participants present the indicator framework to be assessed were asked to rank the importance of all issues Like many other Caribbean islands, Bonaire’s economy Table 1: Tourism sector’s total according to physical-ecological, infrastructural, to determine which were considered a priority highly depends on tourism. The contribution of travel contribution to GDP socio-demographic, and political-economic and provide potential solutions. and tourism to gross domestic product (GDP) measures parameters. Additional indicators, relevant to urban development carrying capacity in an 5. An analysis of the workshop findings was the direct contribution of tourism to the economy. The island setting were added to this framework. conducted to determine if there was consensus direct effects consider only the immediate effects of See Appendix A Bonaire Carrying Capacity among stakeholders on which issues had the tourism demand on production. This measure excludes indicator framework. greatest impact on their lives. These findings indirect effects (for example, suppliers), induced effects assisted in the consolidation of the Carrying (for example, wages), and investment activities (for This study incorporates stakeholder concerns Capacity challenges findings. through a resident sentiment survey and example, hotel construction)1 . According to the 2021 actively engaged them through workshops, 6. Utilizing regression analysis, a growth model Tourism Recovery Plan, the direct contribution of tourism town hall meetings, and interviews, seeking was developed and used to derive three different to the Bonaire economy was an estimated 30 percent in to obtain insight and validation of the study scenarios: status quo, accelerated growth, and 2017. With indirect spin-offs included, the contribution of findings and recommendations. slow growth. An analysis of the different growth tourism to GDP in 2017 was estimated at 80 percent. The scenarios pros and cons of each path was derived and the most appropriate sustainable growth plan also noted that the total contribution in 2019 should The following steps were followed to develop Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development model was identified. be expected to be higher because tourism continued Carrying Capacity Study: to grow in 2018 and 2019 (OLB 2021a). Table 1 compares 7. Research was conducted on the current plans, several tourism destinations for which the total travel and 1. International indicators were selected following policies, and programs in place, in development, tourism contribution to GDP was calculated and shows Sources: OLB (2021a) and WTTC (2022) the UNEP/MAP/PAP methodology. A list of and on-hold that affect the current carrying that Bonaire has relatively high exposure to tourism. indicators with baseline data, as appropriate, capacity challenges. was compiled and included in the Appendix A. 8. Finally, recommendations on policy, investments, 2. Baseline data, trendlines, and current conditions and technology that will help mitigate the 1 The indirect effects of tourism consumption on other industries derive from the links between industries that serve tourism and those for Bonaire were collected for each indicator carrying capacity constraints were derived and that supply the tourism industry with intermediate inputs and capital goods, and in turn, the links between these industries and others validated with the Bonaire government technical that supply them, and so on. All these effects generate additional value-added employment, employee compensation, taxes, other based on desktop research and information income, and so on. In addition, the increase in income distributed to the labor force and the owners of productive capital resulting from provided by local stakeholders and experts council in May 2023. incremental visitor demand generates increased demand for goods and services through a rise in household consumption. This addi- tional demand generates a chain of induced effects on various goods and services. through one-to-one and group interviews. 8| |9 10 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 11 Fueled by tourism growth, Bonaire’s GDP wholly be attributed to contractions in the Figure 3: Employment on Bonaire by economic sector, 2011–2021 increased by 4 percent in 2018 and 6 “Accommodation and food service activities” percent in 2019. Between 2017 and 2019, and “Culture, recreation, and other services” the economic sector “Accommodation and sectors, which were impacted the most by food service activities” grew by 27 percent. the pandemic. Other tourism-dependent Sectors most closely related to tourism sectors remained relatively stable. There accounted for about 50 percent of GDP up was one exception: the demand for new until 20192 . Moreover, the increased demand developments continued to grow during for housing boosted economic activity in the pandemic, resulting in a 19 percent the real estate sector by 18 percent and in increase in the construction sector for 2020. the construction sector by 54 percent. The Table 2 presents the contribution of different economic downturn in 2020 can almost economic sectors to the economy. Table 2: Contribution to Bonaire’s GDP by economic sector, 2017–2020 Source: CBS (2022a) Note: Values are the number of employee jobs. The low unemployment rates of the last few were given out to positions related to the years have created a tight labor market. This construction sector. Employers in the tourism situation has especially become a concern sector have indicated that they fill many of in construction and tourism (hotels and their open positions with interns f rom the restaurants) and the public sector. In 2018, 297 European Netherlands (ROA-CN 2019). work permits (tewerkstellingsvergunning)3 Table 3: Unemployment rates, 2012–2020 Source: CBS (2022a). Note: Values at current prices in million US$. The number of jobs rose by 3,828 (55 percent employment on Bonaire in 2021. Between 2011 increase) between 2011 and 2019. According to and 2019, employment in the two main tourism CBS, tourism and population growth are key sectors grew by 79 percent. Additionally, the drivers of the increase in jobs. Between 2011 and workforce in the construction sector continued 2021, the number of jobs in the accommodation to expand despite the pandemic—from 600 in and food services sector increased by 67 percent, 2011 to 960 in 2021 (CBS 2023). Figure 3 shows from 860 to 1140. Sectors directly related to the contribution of each of those sectors to Source: CBS Netherlands tourism accounted for more than half of the labor demand. 2. Two industries almost entirely dependent on tourism are “Accommodation and food service activities” and “Culture, 3. A work permit, or tewerkstellingsvergunning, is needed for hires that are not Dutch or US citizens. recreation, and other services.” The economic sectors “Wholesale and retail trade,” “Transport, information and communication,” “Real estate activities,” and “Construction” are also directly exposed to tourism but to a lesser extent. 10 | | 11 12 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study Resident population development The population of Bonaire has almost doubled since 2000. In the year 2001, the census counted 10,791 persons. In the next two years, the island experienced a dip in population, but in 2004, the population was back to 2000 figures. Between 2001 and 2010, CBS Dutch Antilles calculated the population at the beginning of the year by processing changes (births minus deaths and migration balance) to the 2001 census population count. In 2010, CBS Netherlands changed the methodology to counting the number of people included in the population register. By the CBS Dutch Antilles’ methodology, the population in 2010 was 13,389, but 15,518 by CBS Netherlands’ methodology (difference of 16%)4. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2010 and 2022 was 2.9 percent. The increase in population over the last ten years is mainly caused by a migration balance of 4,900 between 2012 and 2022, and less by natural growth. The balance between Figure 4: Population of Bonaire, 2010–2023 births and deaths was just 1,100 between 2012 and 2022. In 2022, net migration was 1,403, more than double than each of the previous three years In 2020, during the pandemic, the trend of increasing numbers of migrants from South, Central, and North America slowed. However, the growing trend of migrants f rom the European Netherlands, Curacao, Aruba, and St. Maarten continued. For each region, the net migration flow was positive, that is, more people entered than left Bonaire. The positive balance was substantial from Curacao, Aruba, and St Maarten, and South and Central America. Source: CBS Dutch Antilles and CBS Netherlands Kralendijk PICTURE BY: Tourism Bonaire 4. https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/cijfers/detail/80539ned#shortTableDescription Bonaire’s Media Hub 12 | 14 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 15 The migration balance is forecasted to decrease Aruba, Curaçao or St Maarten, and 76 percent of gradually to zero between 2030 and 2050. Based those from other countries will eventually leave. on data from previous years, CBS estimates that Of the emigrants born within the Caribbean Figure 5: Migration into Bonaire, by region of origin across the Caribbean Netherlands (Bonaire, Saba, Netherlands, 54 percent are expected to return St. Eustatius), 91 percent of immigrants born in the (CBS 2022b). European Netherlands, 66 percent of those born in Figure 6: Migration balance Bonaire, 2020-2050 Source: CBS Netherlands The actual number of people living on the island at a given time is expected to be higher than the official population count. European Dutch and Dutch from Curacao, Sint Maarten, and Aruba can stay on Bonaire for a period of a maximum of 180 out of 365 days without the need to register. If they work, they can stay for a maximum period of 90 days before they need to request residence. All people that received a residence permit as well as those (Dutch and US citizens) who stay more than four months out of a six-month period on Bonaire are required to officially move to the island by registering into the population register. Washington Slagbaai National Park PICTURE BY: We Share Bonaire pictures Bonaire’s Media Hub Source: CBS Netherlands 14 | | 15 16 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 17 Resident population growth and projections Between 1 January 2010 and 1 January 2023, Bonaire’s population rose from 15,518 to 24,090—averaging 3.4 percent per year. In 2022, CBS had estimated a population of 26,192 by 2030. According to the CBS forecast, the growth rate after 2030 will decrease further and halt around 2050, at an estimated 28,100. This estimate is slightly higher than was predicted in 2021 due to both higher expected migration balance and higher numbers of live births (CBS 2022b). Figure 7: Population forecast for Bonaire, 2023–2050 29,000 27,500 Projected population 26,000 24,500 23,000 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 Source: CBS Netherlands Number of households Between 2011 and 2020, the number of households rose by 48.3 percent, while the population in- creased by 32.1 percent. In 2011, the average number of people per household was 2.73 people; in 2020 it had dropped to 2.43. Figure 8: Number of households, 2011–2020 Washington-Slagbaai National Park PICTURE BY: RTP Bonaire’s Media Hub Source: CBS Netherlands 16 | | 17 18 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 19 the Netherlands, 26 percent from the US, and 12 While the majority of non-resident air arrivals percent from Curacao. Visitors from the United can be considered tourists, the number of stay- States stay an average of 7 nights, while those over tourists counted at the border also includes from the Netherlands stay an average of 14 nights. people who are not official residents but who Furthermore, most Americans are middle-aged or do stay on the island for longer periods of time. older (55+), while most Dutch are (45+). A tourism Examples of these are interns originating from exit survey conducted in fall of 2021 showed the European Netherlands who stay between that almost 60% of visitors are repeat visitors of 3-6 months, people who come to stay for several which 39% visited Bonaire more than twice. The months and work remotely as well as retirees majority of the US visitors indicated that the main who come to Bonaire to escape the cold winter Tourism development reason for their visit is diving (90%), followed by months in their home country and who rent or rest and relaxation (75%), while for the Dutch own a temporary home on the island. There are The demand for Bonaire as a tourist pace with the growing demand, and the total visitors; rest and relaxation (90%) was the most also short-term visitors from the other neighboring destination has tripled over the last two room inventory increased from 1,122 in 1997 to important reason to visit followed by diving (30%) islands (Curacao and Aruba) that come to Bonaire decades. The sector initially developed based 2,182 in 2021. Also, more cruise lines started to and other water-based activities (30%). Visitors for work on a daily or weekly basis accounted for on the scuba diving market but has also started include Bonaire in their itineraries and, over the from the US spend an average of US$ 297 per in the non-resident air arrivals statistics. to attract the non-dive market over the years. years, with larger ships. The average number day excluding ticket and accommodation. The While Bonaire received 59,000 non-resident air of passengers per ship increased from 1,590 in average expenditure per day for the Dutch is On average, 80 percent of non-resident air arrivals arrivals in 1995 (Tourism Planning and Research 2015 to 2,548 in 2019. In 1995 just 11,000 cruise US$ 130 excluding ticket and accommodation. stay overnight in hired tourism accommodations Associates 1997), this increased to 157,800 in passengers visited Bonaire. In 2019—24 years The US market is spending significantly more on (TCB 2023). The Bonaire Hotel and Tourism 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic caused a drop later—this had increased to 457,700 passengers their accommodation. While the average stay is Association (BONHATA) reported in December in arrivals in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, Bonaire (CBS 2021). In 2022, Bonaire received 304,298 seven days, they spend an average per person 2022 that the annual average hotel occupancy received 170,194 non-resident international cruise passengers. of US$ 1471 per stay on their accommodation. rate was 66 percent in 2022, the same rate as visitors by air. The accommodation supply kept The average Dutch visitor stays for 14 days and in 2019. The average daily rate per room (ADR) spends US$ 799 on accommodation during their increased from US$194 per room per night in stay (TCB 2022a). 2019 to US$234 in 2022 (Bonaire.nu 2022a). Stay-over tourists The number of non-resident air arrivals rose from 127,600 in 2012 to 157,800 in 2019, an increase of 25 percent. While between 2012 and 2017, demand showed limited Figure 9: Non-resident air arrivals, 2012–2022 and inconsistent growth, the number of arrivals increased significantly in 2018 and again in 2019. In 2020, due to the pandemic, the number of visitors dropped by 58 percent compared to 2019. By 2021 the demand experienced some recovery, and the annual number of visitors reached 70 percent of the 2019 level. In 2022, Bonaire received 170,194 overnight visitors, an increase of 7.9 percent compared with 2019. While during the summer months, the number of arrivals was still slightly below 2019 figures, by the end of 2022, Bonaire experienced record growth. In December 2022, arrivals increased by 23 percent compared to the same month in 2019. ForwardKeys5 noticed a trend toward more affluent travelers; in Q3 2022, premium cabin travel to Bonaire was up by 110 percent (ForwardKeys 2022). In 2019, 35 percent of arrivals originated from the European part of the Netherlands, 25 percent from the US, and 22 percent from Aruba, Curacao, or St. Maarten. In 2020 and 2021, the share of visitors from the European part of the Netherlands increased (CBS 2022a). During the second half of 2022, 47 percent of arrivals originated from 2. TCB has a partnership with ForwardKeys, an international travel data provider that helps destinations understand Source. CBS (2022a) and TCB (2023) their performance in the market. 18 | | 19 20 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 21 Tourism Room Development Growth and Figure 11: Number of tourism rooms/beds, Pipeline 1997–2020 The number of rooms expanded significantly, Cruise ship tourists That year, the number of cruise passengers from 1,749 in 2019 to 2,1828 in 2020, an arriving on Bonaire reached a record, at almost increase of 433, or 25 percent. Data collected Between 2012 and 2019, the number of cruise 460,000 passengers6. After the pause in the in August 2021 by TCB suggest that another passengers nearly tripled. Cruise tourism in the 715 tourism rooms with 1,948 beds were in the cruise industry in March 2020, it restarted slowly Caribbean is seasonal, and the primary season planning pipeline back then. These planned by the end of 2021. In 2022, the cruise sector rooms include new hotels and resorts and typically lasts from November until March. In reached 66 percent of pre-pandemic levels as existing hotel expansion plans. A large share of 2019, during the high season, several large cruise the island received 304,298 cruise passengers these 715 rooms has been realized since 2021, ships would dock at Bonaire simultaneously. in that year7. including the 200-room Chogogo Hotel and the 64-room Bloozz Resort, both new properties. Figure 10: Number of cruise ship passengers, 2012–2022 The 2017–2027 Strategic Tourism Master Plan (STMP) proposed adding 600 additional rooms between 2017 and 2027, all in four and five- star hotels (Croes et al. 2017). However, this target has already been exceeded, as at least 697 rooms of unknown categories were added between 2019 and 2022. Source: TCB, Tourism Planning and Research Associates (1997), CBS (2014) and Dossier Koninkrijkrelaties (2021) Figure 12: Rooms by type of accommodation, 2021 9% In 2021, 52 percent of room inventory, as tracked by the Tourism Corporation Bonaire (TCB), was in hotels or resorts 15% with 40 units or more, and 13 percent of rooms were part of a hotel or apartment complex with more than Source: CBS (2022a) and TCB (2023) 20 units. Another 26 percent of rooms were in an apartment or villa complex, The Tourism Recovery Plan prepared in 2021 notes: ship visits to several days per week and only one 52% and 9 percent were in individual real “It has been decided to apply price strategies to vessel per day (Bonaire 2021). In February 2023, estate rentals or vacation houses. decrease the number of cruise ships docking in the “one ship policy” was officially announced. 11% our port. The government will do this by increasing Under this policy, only one large cruise ship at the taxes of every cruise passenger arriving on a time is permitted in port. Smaller ships with Hotels/ Resor ts 40> Units Bonaire” (TCB 2021). Since January 1, 2023, cruise fewer than 700 passengers will be allowed as Apartments/ Ho tels 20> Units passengers have paid $10 per person, replacing a second ship (Bes Reporter 2023). However, the current $2 head tax. The cruise lines will collect the impact on cruise arrivals has yet to be seen. 12% Apartments/ Villas 20< Units this new tax (Bonaire 2022). The recovery plan According to the number of port calls already Apartments/ Villas 10< Units also stated that there should be more focus on confirmed as of November 2022, cruise tourism Home Rentals/ V acation Houses smaller luxury cruise ships (100–1000 passengers) arrivals are expected to be 520,000 by 2025 (a 14 Source: TCB, 2022 that stay in port for a few days and limiting cruise percent increase over 2019). 6. The number of cruise ship passengers reported is equal to the number of passengers on the ship; the number of passen- 8. This number of rooms includes only accommodation that is known to TCB and does not include all of the rooms and beds gers that disembark has historically not been reported. that are available for recreational purposes year round or for part of the year. 7. The number of cruise passengers that actually disembark is unknown. The reported number corresponds to the capacity of the ships arriving at port. 20 | | 21 22 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 23 PICTURE BY: Tourism Bonaire Bonaire’s Media Hub Respondent Profile 14). Respondents born on Bonaire make up 29 percent of the sample. According to figures Of the 777 participants, 49.9 percent are female, published by CBS, Bonaire’s population in 49.3 percent are male, and the rest responded 2022 was composed of 35 percent Bonaire- “other.” Figure 13 shows the age distribution born, 15.9 percent European Netherlands-born, of the respondents. Most of the sample (41.3 20.7 percent Dutch Caribbean-born, and 28 percent) are between 40 and 59. Respondents percent born in other parts of the world. The between 20 and 39 make up 29.7 percent of the survey’s sampling was weighted to ensure that sample. Figure 15 shows that most respondents the sample is representative of the Bonaire are born in the European part of the Netherlands population. In the survey results section, the (32 percent). Of all respondents, 55.5 percent total score refers to the weighted average of have lived on Bonaire for over 10 years (Figure the survey sample. Figure 13: Age distribution Resident Sentiment Survey Results Introduction As a critical input to the analysis, the World Bank, in cooperation with Openbaar Lichaam Bonaire (OLB), conducted a resident survey between August 2 and September 3, 2022. Conducted online and in person, the survey focused on identifying the impact that urban development and tourism growth have had on residents’ quality of life and how the residents would like the island to develop. The survey was available online in English, Papiamentu, Dutch, and Spanish through a link widely circulated and advertised by OLB through social media and an SMS blast. A local enumeration team conducted face-to-face surveys during public events and near supermarkets across all neighborhoods. The survey was completed by 777 respondents (357 online and 420 in person). See Appendix B for more details on the methodology. 22 | | 23 24 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 25 Figure 14: Years living on Bonaire Figure 15: Place of birth Section 1: Sentiment about living on Bonaire opment, 73 percent of respondents agree or strongly agree that development on Bonaire is adapting to 40 Quality of Life meet the social needs of the residents. There are no Figure 17 shows that, when looking at the total score, significant differences between respondents’ birth- 34.4 92 percent of the respondents agree or strongly places or other demographic profiles for these three agree that Bonaire is a safe and livable place for res- statements, and this suggests that the different sub- idents. Also, almost all (92 percent) of respondents 30 samples share similar perspectives on these issues. disagree or strongly disagree that living costs are Percentage of t otal acceptable. When asked about the country’s devel- 21.1 Figure 17: Sentiment about living on Bonaire 20 19.8 14.3 10.4 10 0 Years 0-23 -5 6-10 11-202 0+ Additionally, the respondents were asked about their employment status. The top 3 statuses were full-time employment (40.3 percent), self-employed/business owner (22.1 percent), and retired (13.1 percent) (Figure 16). Figure 16: Employment Status Source: Resident sentiment survey Sentiment on the availability of decent jobs is When asked about the number of citizens on more divided across the different resident pro- the island, just over a third (38 percent) of the files. The total score of the sample shows that sample agrees or strongly agrees that there are too many residents on the island. Of the 50 percent agree or strongly agree that enough Bonaire-born residents, 45 percent expressed decent jobs are available. Of those born on Bo- that there are too many residents, while 34 per- naire, just 45 percent agree or strongly agree cent of the non-Bonaire-born feel that way. This with the statement, while 54 percent of the shows that residents born on Bonaire are more non-Bonaire-born residents feel that way. concerned with the growing population than those who are not. Figure 18: Sentiment about available jobs and size of population Survey Results The survey comprised three sections. The first two sections con- sisted of statements where the respondent was asked to rate each statement. The topics covered in the first section included general statements about living on Bonaire. In the second sec- tion, the respondents were asked about the importance of spe- cific actions and how well Bonaire performed on each of those Source: Resident sentiment survey actions. Finally, the third section consisted of two open questions Tourism development on Bonaire about the residents’ concerns and their vision for the future. The When asked about the impact of tourism, the total score for respondents are split as 49 percent agree or following sections discuss the main survey results. A complete strongly agree that, in general, the positive effects of tourism on Bonaire outweigh the negative effects. overview of the results, disaggregated by place of birth, is pre- Respondents born in the European part of the Netherlands slightly less agree with this statement than sented in Appendix C. those born on Bonaire or elsewhere in the Dutch Caribbean. 24 | | 25 26 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 27 Figure 19: Sentiment about impacts of tourism development In general, the positive impacts of tourism on Bonaire outweigh the negative impacts Section 2: Important actions and Source: Resident sentiment survey Bonaire’s Performance Protecting Bonaire’s natural areas and biodiversity is the second The top six most important actions priority for the survey respondents. Of all respondents, 83 percent indicate that it is important or very important to them. Bonaire-born (51%) feel slightly stronger that the different sub-groups. 43% of Bonaire- for respondents across the different Of those respondents born on Bonaire, 76 percent state that it tourism development encourages more born agree or strongly agree that a portion of respondent profiles of the survey are: is important, while this is the case for 87 percent of respondents born elsewhere. Bonaire receives the second-highest score beautification of the infrastructure and public their income is linked to the tourism industry compared to the other actions in terms of performance, as spaces on Bonaire than the total average (49%). on Bonaire. Of the respondents born in the 1. Improving road infrastructure 67 percent feel that Bonaire is doing good or very good at The share of respondents that indicated that a European Netherlands, 40% agree or strongly 2. Protecting Bonaire’s natural protecting the environment. areas and biodiversity portion of their income is directly or indirectly agree with the statement. 3. Ensuring the availability of related to the tourism industry is similar among affordable and decent homesfor residents 4. improving public infrastructure Figure 19: Sentiment about tourism and public spaces and tourism and personal income (such as utilities, waste collection, and street lighting) 5. Greater involvement and role by residents in deciding what happens on the island 6. Ensuring greater safety and less According to the survey respondents, just as important as the crime natural environment is ensuring the availability of affordable and decent homes for residents, which is important or very The respondents were asked to personally important to 83 percent of the respondents. This action is equally important among all demographics. It is the action where rate each of these actions’ importance9. Bonaire scores lowest in meeting the needs, as just 31 percent For each of the actions, respondents were of respondents feel that Bonaire is doing good or very good at ensuring affordable housing availability. also asked to rate how well Bonaire is doing at meeting the needs of residents10. See Annex B and C for the score of all actions and how well Bonaire is considered doing at meeting the need of these actions. Source: Resident sentiment survey Improving the road infrastructure is at The survey results indicate a clear difference percent agree with this statement, while this the top of the agenda as it is important or in sentiment on the number of tourists is 69 percent for the remaining sample. The somewhat important for 87 percent of the among residents. More than half (63 percent) difference shows that those born on Bonaire survey respondents. For those who have of respondents e agree or strongly agree are less concerned about tourism growth than lived on Bonaire for over 20 years, it is even The fourth most pressing issue is Improving public infrastructure that there are too many tourists on the residents born outside the island. (such as utilities, waste collection, and street lighting), as 82 more important (92 percent) than those percent of respondents feel this is important or very important. island. However, of the Bonaire-born, only 51 born on Bonaire (86 percent). Only 34 Interestingly, 79 percent of Bonaire-born respondents think this percent of respondents feel that Bonaire is is important or very important to them, against 84 percent of Figure 21: Sentiment about the number of tourists non-Bonaire-born respondents. Bonaire is doing relatively well doing good or very good in improving the at meeting the needs around improving public infrastructure, road infrastructure. as 61 percent feel that Bonaire is doing good or very good at addressing the needs. 9. Please rate how important these actions are to you, using a 5-point scale where 1 = not important and 5 = extremely important. Source: Resident sentiment survey 10. Please rate how well Bonaire is doing at achieving this action, using a 5-point scale where 1 = very poor and 5 = very good. 26 | | 27 28 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 29 Section 3: Open-ended questions The first open-ended question asked respondents about their concerns about Bonaire’s current developments. The open question had 565 responses, and the responses The second open-ended question asked respondents about were separated into different categories (see Table 4). their vision for Bonaire in the future. Respondents noted a variety of different views. Many noted that they would like to The concerns that were mentioned most by respondents see a reduction in the number of cruise ships and a halt to new had to do with the pressure of tourism and new tourism development. Others emphasized the need for the developments on the island. Examples are the growing preservation of nature and culture. One of the respondents number of cruise passengers and the recent development noted the following: Greater involvement and role by residents in of large resorts. The second concern is the cost of living deciding what happens on the island ranks and income. Respondents noted that it is difficult to “Like Pourier’s vision: while preserving culture and as the fifth most important action according have a decent standard of living and that many people nature. All beaches are public and accessible for free, to the respondents; 81 percent found this need to work multiple jobs. The third category of concern with no exceptions. No further coastal development, important or very important. Only 42 percent is the need for infrastructure improvements on the no development in areas designated for nature, open feel that Bonaire is doing good or very good island to meet the growing demand. This includes road landscape, or water (and no change of use)—more at meeting the needs of greater involvement infrastructure but also electricity and sewage systems. quality homes for current residents. Kunuku area is and role by residents. Many respondents indicated affordable housing is a developed (agriculture, but also ecotourism). No more significant concern, especially for existing residents. goats and donkeys everywhere, which means more Inequality across different subpopulations on Bonaire nature. Greener in the city and along the roads with is another important concern. It was mentioned local species. Also, on resorts, local species of nature. that there are fewer opportunities for Bonaire-born Moreover, new buildings, including resorts, must fit into residents, and newcomers would have easier access to the architectural style of Bonaire.” higher-paying jobs and other economic opportunities. Immigration numbers are considered out of balance, Many respondents emphasized that further economic with new residents taking jobs and reducing the share development benefits the residents through better jobs and of the Bonaire-born population. There are also worries other economic opportunities but needs to be balanced. These about the environment and the impact of growth on respondents hope to see the future as follows: Ensuring greater safety and less crime action nature. Respondents also note a need for more policy is slightly more important for non-Bonaire and clear direction on where Bonaire is going. “Un paraiso den kua bienestar di hende i desaroyo born (81 percent) than Bonaire-born (79 percent) and for those that have been on the ekonomiko ta den harmonia” (A paradise where well- island more than 20 years (83 percent) than Table 4: Categories of concerns being and economic development are in harmony). those who have been on the island less than “Infrastructura na ordu i acceptabel, kas y tereno 20 years (80 percent). Of all actions, Bonaire Category of concerns Count pagabel pa nos mes hendena. I chens pa trabow pa received the highest score on meeting the 141 nos mes hendenan”. (The infrastructure is in order and needs of greater safety and less crime, as 73 128 acceptable, and houses and land are affordable for our percent felt Bonaire scored good or very good. 93 people. A chance to work for our people). 76 69 Many respondents mentioned a cap on population growth and 63 a stricter immigration policy. Some mentioned the need for a 57 clear path and direction. One respondent mentioned: 45 44 “That there is at least a clear plan behind it. And follow 35 that plan. No mass hotels and mass tourism. No cruise 35 boats. Low-rise buildings, small-scale accommodations, 29 and the protection of nature come first. Limits may be 22 set for both construction (private and project developers) 20 and tourism. And above all: sustainability.” 17 15 8 61 28 | | 29 30 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 31 Bonaire Urban Although community engagement activities around the plan’s development took place in improved and expanded if enough market demand and the social benefits demonstrably Carrying Capacity November 2019, the Masterplan Bonaire 2030 outweigh the social costs. has not been publicly shared (Bes Reporter 2020) The fast-growing population. Immigration is Challenges The current master plan (2010–2025) identifies limited, and remigration is promoted so that the following four challenges (Van Werven, Bonaireans always constitute a good major- Jepma, and Bakker 2010): ity of the population. This implies that from a specific population level onwards, policies 1. The fast-growing tourism sector should balance the numbers of returning Bo- Fragmented Development Policy naireans and newly settling non-Bonaireans. 2. The fast-growing population The Island Council of Bonaire currently four years. The Executive Council changed after 3. Limited policy on spatial development and has a number of different strategic plans the elections from March 2023 and has not yet Limited policy on spatial development and lack of a land policy plan (for example, tourism, environment, and released their new plan. The last government need for a land policy plan. The integrated culture), but these are separate and not plan (2019–2023) is titled “From us all, by all of 4. Fragmentation of the social structure and spatial development plan for Bonaire dates combined into one strategic master plan. us, and for everyone” (Dutch: Van ons allemaal, loss of culture. from 2010 and will be updated in 2023. New For example, the growth scenario laid out door ons allemaal en voor ons allemaal) and high rises that are more than three floors are in the STMP is not linked to an overarching includes six programs (OLB, 2019). In the area Twelve themes were identified and elaborated not allowed. The open spaces along the coast- island development and strategic growth of sustainable economic development, two on to address these challenges in a 115-point line need to be preserved so that all residents plan. The latest master plan dates from strategic planning priorities are identified: action plan. A few strategies and main action of Bonaire keep the entrance to the coast ac- 2010, yet a clear choice was never made on points under each of the four challenges are cessible. There will be a strict policy for the which of the four long-term development 1. Develop an integrated master plan for as follows: entrance of new retiree or “pensionados” 13 paths the plan should follow. This has led Bonaire 2030 and others who do not work, as well as sec- to fragmented institutional visioning and a Fast-growing tourism sector. The scope of all ond-home owners who want to take residen- need for more unified and clearer policies. 2. Develop a strategic tourism plan as well different segments of tourism activities and cy. The starting point will be that their arrival as the “Blue Destination” concept their growth should be limited by policy. This should not fundamentally affect the housing The local democratically elected representative implies a limitation of the increase in overnight options for Bonaireans. The Land Policy Plan assembly, the Island Council (Dutch: Eilandsraad), Bonaire Master Plan capacity and the number of accepted charters; has been submitted multiple times by the Ex- is the highest administrative body in a public ecutive Council since 2017 but is not yet ap- this may mean that no permits are issued for entity responsible for local legislation. The The last government plan states: proved by the Eilandsraad. touristic plans. For diving tourism, this limitation Island Council is elected every four years by the inhabitants of Bonaire and has 9 Island Council means that by the latest 2012, a set maximum In the past, decisions about the future of quota has been determined. This level is based Fragmentation of the social structure and members. The executive power rests with the Bonaire have been mostly made ad hoc island Governor (Dutch: gezaghebber) (appointed and sectoral. Given the need to make on the natural limit of the relevant ecosystems. loss of culture. There will be programs on by the King), and commissioners (appointed well-considered, integrated, and broadly cultural identity and history in elementary By 2012, the maximum number of cruise ships by the island council) that together form the supported choices, the Executive Council schools and higher education. Immigrants and passengers allowed to arrive should be Executive Council (Dutch: Bestuurscollege, BC)11. will draw up a Bonaire 2030 master plan will be actively supported with their integra- determined. This limit should be based on the tion into society through a (non-compulsory) in consultation with stakeholders. This The Executive Council is responsible for Bonaire’s available mooring capacity, handling capacity, the integration program. A course in Papiamentu master plan will be the roadmap based day-to-day governance and implementation of absorption capacity of the business community, will be part of this. on which the Executive Council makes the decisions of the Island Council. At the start of decisions that determine the future and environmental and reputational effects. every four years, the Executive Council develops of Bonaire. The kickoff of the master If Bonaire continues to permit cruise tourism The 2010–2025 Master Plan also identifies four a government plan (Dutch: bestuursprogramma) plan will take place in November 2019. at, for example, a maximum of 100,000 visitors development scenarios (Table 5). However, no in which it presents the priorities for the next (Bonaire 2019, p. 19)12. per year, then there may be a need to invest decision has been made on which scenario to in expanding facilities, such as handling and follow, and no policies that control population 11. Public Entities Act Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba, https://wetten.overheid.nl/BWBR0028142/2023-01-01. mooring capacity. The capacity should be growth have been developed (WODC 2018). 12. In Dutch: “In het verleden zijn besluiten over de toekomst van Bonaire veelal ad hoc en sectoraal genomen. Gezien de noodzaak weloverwogen, integrale en breed gedragen beleidskeuzes te maken, zal het Bestuurscollege in afstemming met stakeholders een lntegraal Masterplan Bonaire 2030 opstellen. Dit masterplan zal de roadmap zijn op basis waarvan het BC besluiten neemt die bepalend zijn voor de toekomst van Bonaire. De kickoff van het masterplan 13. Pensionado is an expression referring to a healthy and wealthy senior, fully living is pension life. Often owner of vindt in november 2019 plaats.” second home and seasonal visitor/resident to Bonaire. 30 | | 31 32 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 33 Table 5: Four Development Strategies from the Masterplan The STMP states: The STMP recommends targeting new Strategische Ontwikkeling Bonaire 2010-2025 While Bonaire has struggled with the growth market segments likely to stay in hotels and concept, it is clear that the local people would contribute more to the island economy. Autonomous The green island elderly sustainability are like continued tourism development. The This part needs to be redefined: While it is development An oasis for the All aspects of central residents expressed that they would like this important to ensure profitable occupation of • The development growth to occur in pace and level. A primary current accommodation suppliers, the strategy Strategy Facilitating and • Protect and • Positioning Bonaire comprehensively reason why tourism is the right choice for should include innovative alternatives such as supporting market- strengthen the as an attractive and systematically Bonaire is that the industry can deliver long-term occupation, as well as investing in driven growth. green character, residential island for focused on all natural values, and the elderly. sectors’ sustainability increased economic gains with a focus on soft preparation of a wider population segment the • Systematically (balance between tourism products (experiences) as opposed to rebrand Bonaire as a high-end tourist ecosystem. upgrading the level economy, ecology, to severe infrastructure development, the experience. and culture) in all • The whole of of service, care, and environmental consequence of which sectors. Bonaire, except for health services. • The focus is concerns many Bonaireans. Thus, the tourism The Plan states that the focus “ought to be on the urban area, is a • Conscious policy to on the tourist national park. involve Bonaireans industry can contribute to the welfare of the upgrading existing accommodations to boost segment looking • All intended in the higher service for a combination island without Bonaireans having to sacrifice these, rather than building new ones.” The economic activities segment. of rest, sports, their inherent interest in protecting their Recovery Plan also mentions that the goal of are tested against nature, education, gastronomy, and natural environment. (Croes et al. 2017, p.2) 200,000 visitors by 2027 needs revision because ecological criteria; the investment level care. of the impact of COVID-19. Unlike the STMP, the • Bonaire developed Recovery Plan includes specific guidelines for the is capped. The STMP aimed to increase air arrivals from as an education • Growth is entirely and knowledge cruise ship market. It mentions that a redefined aimed at increasing 140,000 in 2017 to 200,000 in 2027. The plan center in energy and strategy could entail “limiting cruise ship visits well-being. sustainability. suggests that for Bonaire to take the “measured to a few days per week, and one ship per day • The most extensive growth objective,” 60,000 other arrivals are possible participation and applying price strategies to decrease the of Bonaireans necessary. This arrival goal covers the individual number of cruise ships, that is, replace the ‘head in economic tax’ with an entry tourist tax.” The last strategy development. quality-of-life requirement (30,000 arrivals) and the “Strong Hotel Performance” objective based on has been implemented as of January 1, 2023: Population Population of 30,000 A few thousand Population of at Population of at cruise passengers pay $10 per person, replacing 40,000 arrivals. The attraction of these additional by 2025. more by 2025. most 20,000 by 2025; most 20,000 by 2025; the previous $2 head tax. It is not clear yet if the influx of about 3,000 no more than 1,000 60,000 new arrivals should support the goal of higher price strategy has led to a decrease in retirees by 2025. retirees by 2025. converting Bonaire into a high-end destination, cruise arrivals. Immigration Doubling employ- The majority of the A minimum of 50% Bonaireians should meaning that at least 20,000 arrivals should stay ment in favor of im- population is of Bo- of the population is be the largest pos- ported labor means at four-star hotels on the island. These four-star In conclusion, the need for an official growth naireian descent. of Bonairian descent. sible share of the that the share of Bo- population, but at hotels should include at least 600 new hotel strategy for Bonaire has led to a fragmented naireans in the total population becomes least 50% in 2025. rooms. The STMO estimated that by 2021, tourism policy, which has led to delayed or uninformed a minority. would contribute 45 percent of the GDP. The decision-making. Consequently, the island STMP estimated that “the expected direct and infrastructure may need to be prepared for Investments Real economic Limited growth in Investments in A steady stream of and growth of an aver- terms of investment services and luxury coming and going indirect jobs created by the 600 new hotel rooms further growth. The resident survey shows that economic age of 7% per year. and employment. condominiums. student interns and would amount to 2400 new jobs: one per room, managing Bonaire’s growing population is growth teachers. important or very important to 70 percent of the one in another tourist activity, and two in the private and public sectors” (Croes et al. 2017, p.74). respondents. Further involvement of Bonaireans Tourism Strategy is also crucial. The survey indicates that 81 percent on January 5, 2018 (Croes et al. 2017). A Dick Pope Sr. Institute for Tourism Studies team at the The STMP focuses on economic impact, but more of respondents consider greater decisional The 1992 “Rapport Pourier” sets the guidelines Rosen College of Hospitality Management at the insights into the broader impact of the proposed involvement by residents in what happens on the for tourism development on Bonaire. The report University of Central Florida prepared this plan in sector growth are needed. The plan states that island as important or very important to them. provided clear guidance on the island’s carrying 2017. During the process, the team met with 200 the path proposed is possible without sacrificing capacity and advocated for a strong focus on the Shortage of affordable housing supply stakeholders and administered seven surveys with environmental protection. However, it should have natural environment and sustainable development the participation of nearly 3,000 respondents, addressed the impact of increased population (De Commissie Integrale Sociaal-Economische The home index price for Bonaire increased by 56 including residents, tourism employees, and and the additional infrastructure, services, and Aanpak Bonaire 1992). The 1997 Bonaire Tourism percent between 2015 and 2020 (CBS 2022a). In visitors (actual and prospective). The 2019–2023 housing tourism that growth implies. Strategic Plan followed the recommendations 2020, CBS counted 8,600 households on Bonaire, government plan stated the following about the of the “Rapport Pourier’’ and recommended an increase of 48 percent compared to 2011 (CBS strategic tourism plan: “The Executive Council In April 2022, OLB launched the Tourism Recovery maximum accommodation capacity and product 2022c). The increased demand for housing affects has taken the reins of the implementation of Plan for Bonaire, developed as a” guide to revive diversification (Tourism Planning and Research home prices, and the resident survey shows that the STMP and will undertake this together with Bonaire’s tourism in the ‘new normal’” (OLB 2021a). Associates, 1997). The most recent tourism strategic affordable housing is essential for Bonaireans. the stakeholders, including the Blue Destination Part of the recovery plan is a review of the 2017 plan, the STMP, was presented to the Eilandsraad concept” (Bonaire 2019, p.20). STMP objectives to see if they are still relevant. While most objectives remain standing during the review, the OLB shares a new stance on a few. The Recovery Plan states: 32 | | 33 34 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 35 Shortage of affordable housing supply Social Housing In 2020, CBS counted 8,600 households in Bonaire, an increase of 48% compared to 2011 (CBS, 2022c). As of December 31, 2021, association Fundashon Cas Bonaireano (FCB) had a total waitlist of The increased demand for housing affects home prices, and the resident survey showed that affordable 956 social home seekers (FCB 2021). As of December 31, 2021, the social housing (FCB) had 568 housing is essential for Bonaireians. The home index for Bonaire increased by 56% between 2015 and homes available. In 2021, 50 new two- and three-bedroom homes were added to the inventory. 2020 (CBS, 2022a). Preparation for another 204 homes has started, and 170 are in the planning14. Figure 28: Home Price Index, 2011–2020 Figure 30: Demand for social housing, 2017–2021 The total transaction value of dwellings sold peaked in 2018, with a total value of US$111.1 million, primarily due to the completion of several large development projects (CBS 2022a). In 2011, the average price of a sold dwelling was US$241,000. Nine years later, by 2020, it had increased to US$362,000. The global prices of construction materials increased significantly in 2021 and 2022, which has likely also affected the cost of building a new house or renovating an existing home. Source: (CBS, 2022a) Note: 2011=100 Figure 29: Total transaction value dwellings and average price per dwelling, 2011–2020 Source: FCB (2021) Although the local government is revising the about the reinforcement of the rules (Bonaire. current spatial development plan that became nu 2022b). Many low-income families rent a the first ever spatial plan for Bonaire, approved house in the private housing market because in 2010 (in Dutch, Ruimtelijk Ontwikkelingsplan the number of available social homes does not Bonaire, or ROB), a moratorium on building meet demand. Rental prices have increased permits for recreational types of buildings was over the years. The influx of European Dutch is instituted in December 2021 (OLB 2021b). Only driving up rental and home prices. They often new development in line with the Tourism have higher disposable household income and Strategic Plan 2017 will be permitted during can pay more for housing (van der Ende, van this period. den Bergh, and Peeters 2020). The expected population growth, partly driven by economic According to the current ROB, short-term growth in the next decade, will increase the rentals are prohibited in most neighborhoods need for dwellings on the island even more. on Bonaire. Only in zoned areas “Recreatie- If the supply is not increased, the growing Verblijfsrecreatie,” “Gemengd-1,” “Gemengd population will likely drive up housing prices, -VI,” and “Gemengd-Uit te werken I” is it allowed and the availability of homes could become a to rent out houses and apartments for shorter more significant issue. In addition, the growing than three months. In 2022, the Executive number of tourist arrivals has made it lucrative Council created a task force to reinforce the for homeowners to rent out their properties regulation. Homeowners violating the rules as short-term rentals, thereby reducing the have been notified, and realtors and notaries inventory of long-term housing. have been requested to inform their clients Source: CBS,2022a 14. In 2019, OLB, FCB, and the Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations signed an agreement to build 500 houses. (https://www.eerstekamer.nl/overig/20190712/convenant_volkshuisvesting_bonaire/document) 34 | | 35 36 2023 37 Figure 31: Median disposable household income Bonaire, 2011–2020 Source: CBS (2022a) Note: Some of the income components are only observed in the income declaration data. For persons who do not (have to) file any income declaration, the observation of such components is therefore missing. This leads to underestima- Washington-Slagbaai National Park tions, mainly of incomes from property and alimony and among lower-income households in particular. PICTURE BY: Tourism Bonaire Bonaire’s Media Hub Since 2012, the median purchasing power 1, 2023, the statutory minimum wage was has increased year on year with the increased by 18.3 percent, social benef its exception of 2018, when average prices increased by 22.2 percent, and child benef its Narrow distribution of benchmark for a social minimum for the Caribbean Netherlands, published in June 2018, reveal that rose more rapidly than incomes, leading increased by $20 a month. For employed economic benefits 33 percent of households on Bonaire had an to a loss of purchasing power. In 2020, persons ages 21 and above, the minimum income at or below 75 percent of the estimated purchasing power increased despite the wage for a 40-hour workweek in 2023 is Despite the solid economic growth over the COVID-19 pandemic due to several economic $1,236 per month. The child benef it per average budget needed for basic expenses. The last ten years and low unemployment rates, support packages. Also, in 2020, the child child is $131 monthly, and retirement report also noted that 43 percent of households the median disposable income of Bonaire benef it was raised by more than 30 percent, income is $1,047 monthly. Welfare (in Dutch, had an income lower than the average monthly residents has increased only slightly. While social benef its increased to the minimum onderstand) is $826 monthly for a single budget (Straatmeijer 2018). The social minimum the median household income was $22,400 in wage, and the statutory minimum wage person and $1,142 for a couple (RCN 2022). was a reference point for targeted measures to 2011, it grew to $24,300 in 2020, an 8.5 percent increased by 6.2 percent (RCN 2019). Minimum wage and social benef it plans increase benefits and the legal minimum wage increase in nine years. For many, having a job will continue to increase in incremental in the coming years so that the legal minimum does not mean that their income can help them As of January 1, 2022, the minimum wage steps until 2025, as the Dutch Ministry wage would exceed the social minimum and meet their basic needs because many workers was increased by an additional 10 percent, of Kingdom Affairs clarif ied in July 2022 that financial aid would be adequate. However, earn close to the minimum wage; to make ends and retirement income and other social (Dossier Koninkrijksrelaties 2022a). By then, the legal minimum wage on Bonaire needs to meet, many people must hold more than one benef it plans were also increased by 10 the minimum monthly wage should be at be at the level of the benchmark for the social job15. The data from the Regioplan report on a percent (RCN 2021). Starting f rom January $1,350 (Rijksoverheid 2021). minimum for a single person. 15, Dutch Human Rights Council (in Dutch, College voor de Rechten van de Mens), 2016 Annual Report. 36 | | 37 38 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 39 Figure 32: Median purchasing power development, 2012–2020 Figure 34: Relative poverty on Bonaire, Figure 35: Income distribution, 2011–2020 2014–2020 Source: CBS (2022a) Note: The ratio 80/20 is a measure of income inequal- ity. Presenting the ratio between the total income of Source: CBS (2022a) the highest and lowest income quintile. Source: CBS (2022a) Note: The poverty line is at 60 percent of the median Note: Purchasing power is the equivalized household income adjusted for price developments based on the consumer income of the population. price index (CPI). In 2019, Bonaire’s Gini coefficient was 0.39. The n 2020, households in the lowest 25 percent Gini coefficient measures the dispersion or distri- The increase in the minimum wage is barely keeping up with inflation. The latest data on the income bracket had a median equivalized income bution of income, and hence the inequality levels Consumer Price Index shows that in Q3 of 2022, consumer goods and services were up 12.2 per- in a country. The higher the coefficient, the great- of $6,600; the second 25 percent had an income er the inequality. This was lower than Costa Rica’s cent from Q3 in 2021. According to CBS, the increase is mainly due to food, electricity, and fuel of $14,300; the third 25 percent an income of (0.48) or St. Lucia’s (0.51) but much higher than prices, and this trend is following global consumer prices. that of the Netherlands, with a Gini of 0.29 in 2019. $21,400; and the highest 25 percent income Figure 33: Consumer price index for Q1, 2015–2022 bracket a median income of $36,800. Table 6: Gini coefficient, 2019 Also, in 2020, the wealthiest 20 percent of the population earned 9.3 times as much as the poorest 20 percent. The trend is stable and has not shown much movement. By comparison, in the Netherlands, the highest 20 percent earns 4.4 times as much as the lowest 20 percent, on St. Eustatius, 10.3 times, and on Saba, this is 6.5 times. A 2020 report by the National Ombudsman of Bonaire concluded that young people who grow up in poverty are trapped in a vicious Source. CBS (2022a) and World Bank, Poverty, and circle that is very difficult to break. Children Inequality Platform from low-income families live in poor housing situations. They have less access to healthy food, There is a wide disparity in income among the which affects their health, education, and labor different neighborhoods. As mentioned earlier, market prospects (Nationale Ombudsman 2020). in 2020 the median, equalized, disposable According to the most recent information from income on Bonaire was $17,500. Areas with a a foundation that provides school-aged children higher share of Bonaire-born residents, such with breakfast at school, 572 children currently as Antriol, Rincon, and Tera Kora, have a lower Source: CBS (2022a) receive a free meal every school day (Voeding median income (Figure 36). There are high op school programma 2023). Since 2020, the concentrations of European Dutch living in Lima Inequality minimum wage and social security have increased. (61 percent), Sabadeco (53 percent), and Santa Relative poverty in Bonaire, the share of people whose income is below 60% of the median in- Data on the effect of this increase on average and Barbara (53 percent). These neighborhoods come, has only slowly decreased since 2014. In 2020, 23% of people lived below the poverty line, median disposable incomes, purchasing power, have median incomes of $21,100, $22,300, and down from 25% in 2014. and relative poverty are not yet available. $22,300, respectively. 38 | | 39 40 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 41 Figure 36: Equalized median income by neighborhood, 2020 Source: CBS (2022a) While Bonaire’s economy has grown over the last few years, not everyone has benefited equally. Wages have not Washington-Slagbaai National Park kept up with rising inflation, and consumer purchasing power for some groups has been nearly stagnant. Overall, res- PICTURE BY: Tourism Bonaire idents have captured only a small share of the economic opportunities, while newcomers with more skills, experience, Bonaire’s Media Hub and assets have been able to take advantage of them. The result of this uneven access to opportunities and the lack of inclusive growth is that economic growth is unevenly distributed, and this disparity has not changed significantly over time. More must be done to provide opportunities to a broader swathe of Bonaire society. 40 | | 41 42 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 43 Figure 38: Share of inhabitants by country of birth and neighborhood, 2020 Loss of cultural identity and cohesion In 2011, 42 percent of the population was born on Bonaire, and CBS estimates that by 2022 this had dropped to 35 percent. The share of residents born in the Netherlands increased from 11 percent to 16 percent during the same period. The percentage of residents born in the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, or Colombia has risen from 13 percent to 15 percent over the last 12 years. Population growth, fueled mainly by immigration, can affect an area’s cultural development, sense of authenticity, and identity. Figure 37: Population by country of birth, Bonaire, the share of the total, 2010–2022 Source: CBS (2022a) The Resident Survey showed that ensuring a The Resident Survey also found that strong sense of community is important to all preserving the local culture is an essential residents, including those who immigrated action point for respondents. There is, to Bonaire. While this is very important to however, a considerable gap between how residents, they feel that Bonaire needs to do important this is to residents and the rate at better at building this sense of community. which it is being achieved. Source: CBS (2022a) Figure 39: Survey results on Ensuring there is a In 2010, the Government of Bonaire strong sense of community among residents presented a policy brief on the culture Neighborhoods in Bonaire are highly segregated. Sabadeco, the share of Bonaire-born residents is of Bonaire (OLB 2010). It lays out the Data on the inhabitants by country of birth for less than 10 percent. These dynamics show the strategies, goals, and action points for the the different neighborhoods show that the share concentration of individuals in neighborhoods by main elements of Bonaire’s culture. The of Bonaire-born residents differs by area. While ethnicity and/or socio-economic conditions, often responsibilities around culture lie with the in Rincon, 65 percent of residents were born on leading to cultural and social segregation. The Bonaire, and 5 percent in the European Netherlands, consequences of these dynamics can have long- municipality, while Dutch law provides in neighborhoods such as Lagun Hill, Lima, and term effects that can lead to a polarized society. the legal framework. The legislation and the possible stakeholders for the different cultural areas are described in “Cultuur Handreiking for Bonaire” (RCN 2018). Source: Resident Sentiment Survey Note: Please rate how important these are actions to you, using a 5-point scale where 1 = not important and In order to protect it the Dutch Government 5 = extremely important. Please rate how well Bonaire is to officially recognize Papiamentu as doing at achieving this action, using a 5-point scale where 1 = very poor and 5 = very good. an official language. Bonaire became a 42 | | 43 44 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 45 special municipality of the Netherlands Bonaire’s population speaks Papiamentu 16, in 2010 the decision to protect the local and Figure 40 shows that Papiamentu language occurred in March of 2021 (BZK continues to be the primary language Limited productive infrastructure Seaports 2021). Despite this delay, the language is of almost two-thirds of the island’s The two aspects of infrastructure under review The maritime infrastructure is also critical still widely used. A CBS resident survey population—63.8 percent in 2013 and 62.4 as part of this assessment are (i) transport, to Bonaire and plays a significant role in in 2021 indicated that 88 percent of percent in 2021. including the airport, seaport, and roads, and supplying food and nonperishable goods Figure 40: Main language spoken by share of the total population, 2013, 2017/18, and 2021 (ii) utilities, including electricity, water, waste to the island. Bonaire has limited agriculture management, and telecommunications. Public and horticulture because the semi-arid climate transportation services are not available on does not lend itself to farming, necessitating the island. the import of many food products. Due to limited local production, there is a Kralendijk is the main public port on the island, significant dependence on imported goods receiving both cargo and passengers, often on Bonaire. The imported goods arrive at the competing for the space. The Department of airport and seaport. The total value of goods Ports and Pilotage of the OLB supervises the imported in 2021 was estimated at $292 million seaports and enforces port regulations. The (CBS 2022a). Over the past five years, the import OLB owns the port infrastructure (for example, value of goods has increased significantly, the grounds and piers in Kralendijk). averaging 8 percent per year (CBS 2022a). There are four other piers for cargo vessels: Airport Hato, on the site of the water and electricity company WEB; the Oil Trading Bonaire jetty that The Flamingo International Airport, or Bonaire provides the airport with its needed fuel; Cargill, International Airport (BIA), is the largest in the which has a landing site for salt operations on Caribbean Netherlands. Owned by OLB, the the southern end of the island; and Bonaire airport can handle wide-body aircraft that Petroleum Corporation (BOPEC), which has operate scheduled flights to Bonaire, including two jetties for loading and unloading of liquid American Airlines, Delta, United, KLM, and TUI bulk goods (petroleum and its products). The Source: CBS (2022a) Netherlands. The airport can be operational 24 BOPEC jetties have been out of business since hours a day. Either three code C aircraft (US the site’s closure in 2019. The growing population, driven mainly by There is development for only a small group carriers) or two code E aircraft (KLM and TUI) of people, and most of the population is immigration, is starting to impact the island’s are parked simultaneously on the platforms Most ships arrive at the port of Kralendijk. In declining17. cultural identity. While there are ongoing during peak hours. In 2019, according to BIA 2019, Bonaire received 726 freight and cruise small initiatives to preserve traditions, And records, the airport handled 472,340 arriving, ships port of call. Compared to 2018, this was departing, or transiting passengers and more a slight decrease. The port welcomes Ro-Ro cultural heritage, and the language, the fact There are too many inhabitants for such a than 600,000kg of cargo, mainly incoming. containers and multipurpose, bulk, and cruise that Bonaire-born residents now represent small island, and the government must only ships. Almost one-third of the calls at Kralendijk a minority has led to the resident backlash accept immigrants when a certain number of The airport is beginning to reach the upper limits consisted of cruise ships (187 ships) in 2019. The inhabitants are reached. There are too many of its total capacity, especially during peak hours towards further immigration. Some of the port has three piers, the North Pier, used mainly people on the island; however, it seems that responses to the open-ended questions such as Saturday afternoons. An expansion is for cruise ships, yachts, coastguard boats, pilot many more people are migrating (in), which is becoming too much. Having too many needed to efficiently accommodate passenger boats, car carriers, and tugs; the Middle Pier, in the Resident Survey alluded to this by people affects many things, such as limited traffic growth (interview with Jos Hillen; NACO used for the transshipment of goods (Ro-Ro saying, for example: job opportunities and higher prices because 2020). The total number of aircraft movements ships); and the South Pier, which handles cargo of supply and demand. Moreover, the effect on in 2019 was 16,698. The 2040 Airport Masterplan ships and larger cruise ships. our environment18. forecasts 22,506 aircraft movements by 2040 (NACO 2020), including 2,360 widebodies, 943 Although the overall number of cargo ships 16. The survey, however, did not ascertain the level of proficiency. narrowbodies, 19,411 turboprops, and small entering Bonaire declined from 2015 to 2019, 17. In Papiamentu: “Ku tin desaroyo pa un grupo di chikitu i ku mayoria di e poblashon ta bayendo atras.” regional jets. this can almost entirely be attributed to the 18. In Papiamentu: “Tin muchu habitante pa un isla asina chikitu. Mester yega un kaminda ku gobiernu ta stop di tuma imigrante ora ku yega un sierto kantidat di habitante. Tin hopi hende kaba aki. Pero ta manera hopi mas ta imigra bin aki. Anto e ta bira di mas. Di mas hende tin efekto riba hopi kos. Kupo limitá di trabou, preisnan mas haltu pasobra tin hopi mas vraag dan aanbod. Efekto riba nos medio ambiente.” 44 | | 45 46 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 47 Figure 41: Number of registered vehicles, Daily water production averaged 5,800 2017–2022 m3 per day in 2021, versus an installed cessation of operations at the BOPEC terminal production capacity of 7,200 m3 per day. north of Bonaire. From 2015 to 2019, the number Water production occurs at a relatively new of cruise ship ports of call to Bonaire rose facility in Hato, launched in December 2021, from 146 to 187, and the average number of that produces up to 5,600 m3 per day, and a passengers per ship increased from 1,590 to slightly older (2015) facility that produces up 2,548. This totaled 230,200 passengers in 2015 Roads to 1,600 m3 per day. According to WEB, the and 457,700 in 2019. The decision in the 2021 daily production and consumption of water Most roads do not have drainage to discharge are expected to reach 6,400 m3 in 2024 and Tourism Recovery Plan to allow no more than rainwater, which damages roads and causes 8,800 m3 in 2030 (Slijkerman, van der Geest, one large cruise ship per day is enabling cargo unsafe driving conditions. Bonaire has 212km and Mücher 2019). If and when demand ships to moor and reducing the pressure on exceeds 12,000 m3 per day, WEB will need to of paved and 130km of unpaved roads. Most inland infrastructure. Additionally, in January find a new location to complement or replace paved roads are in the island’s central area 2023, the head tax was increased from $2 to the main production site in Hato. The energy (Kralendijk) and the area toward the north $10. Despite these restrictive policies, cruise consumption of the new desalination plant, (Rincon). There are no traffic lights, and the Source: Openbaar Lichaam Bonaire ship arrivals are expected to increase. Cruise at 2.59 kWh/ m3, is relatively low. island has only five roundabouts. There is an ship ports of call that are already scheduled for Potable water production and distribution ongoing multi-year program (2021–2023) to Currently, the salt brine from the plant 2023 and 2024 anticipate 485,000 and 520,000 improve the roads funded by the infrastructure is still discarded through a surface outlet passengers, respectively. Bonaire relies solely on producing and at the sea side of the production plant fund Bonaire, Sint Eustatius en Saba (BES). distributing desalinated seawater. Natural in Hato; directly affecting the natural OLB has stated that it wants to separate These funds are available until 2023. The road freshwater on Bonaire is scarce because marine ecosystem. After 2024, the plant cargo and passenger activities at the port. program is planned to continue for the period groundwater tends to be brackish. Until the will be chemical-free and obliged to discard With the growth of cargo and passenger port 2024–2027 depending on funding. Additional 1960s, the drinking water supply relied on a hypersaline water (brine) at a depth of around activity, the pressure on port infrastructure is funds are requested to construct access roads few freshwater wells, but population growth 60 meters to reduce the ecological impact rising. Moreover, the unloading of cargo ships for better traffic circulation around schools, exceeded their capacity. on the reef (Slijkerman, van der Geest, and has a substantial effect on the immediate to reconstruct (primary) roads, and to pave Mücher 2019). Founded in 1963 and owned by the OLB, environment of the center of Kralendijk and dirt roads. Water-en Energiebedrijf Bonaire N.V. (WEB), To distribute potable water from the storage the marine ecosystem. In the past few years, the public water and electricity company, is Registered vehicles have increased by tanks, WEB uses a main transport line of several studies have been undertaken to an “exclusive” company responsible for the 141km and a service line of 284km. At the about 10 percent each year since 2017 and in determine the most favorable location of a new production and distribution of sustainable, end of 2021, WEB had 11,048 active water 2022 totaled 20,744. Adding pressure to the cargo port outside the center of Kralendijk, and reliable, and affordable drinking water and connections. Households that are not already deficient road infrastructure. In 2022, the distribution of electricity. ContourGlobal connected to the service line are served using OLB has designated Hato as the preferred site, the Department for Spatial Planning started Bonaire (CGB) produces electricity and trucks. On average, water usage per capita on the basis of nautical characteristics and a collecting data, including traffic counts, to operates the wind farm, the solar farm, and per day is 150 liters, and WEB estimates the preliminary socioeconomic cost-benefit analysis. inform a new traffic master plan (DRO 2022). the generators at Karpata. Certain aspects of consumption of a tourist per day at 500 liters. However, an Environmental Impact Assessment the production and distribution of power and The average retail price of water in 2022 was (EIA) must be executed and integrated into drinking water on Bonaire are regulated by $4.9020 per m3. this socioeconomic analysis. The EIA is being the BES Electricity and Drinking Water Act, prepared, and the outcomes are expected in enacted in July 2016. The WEB team consists 2023. The selection of Hato as the site of choice of 132 staff. is also included in the Cooperation Agreement between the Minister of Infrastructure and the Environment and the OLB19. 20. The maximum utility cost rates for drinking water are set by the Authority for Consumers and Markets. These are deemed to be cost-covering tariffs. Based on statutory provisions, the water rates to be charged to the customer are determined by OLB. With the tariff support of the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, any operating deficit is financed to 19. Samenwerkingsconvenant Zeehavens Bonaire ( https://zoek.officielebekendmakingen.nl/stcrt-2020-15790.html) enable WEB to apply reduced (non-cost-covering) rates. 46 | | 47 48 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 49 Figure 42: Water production (in million m3), 2008–2021 quality, expected to be implemented by 2024. sources. Production followed the increasing The collection of measurements on water trend in energy consumption. There were quality started in 2022. In another project, 12,022 connections in 2021, including both the Ministry is working with OLB, WEB, and households and businesses. The average other local organizations to test decentralized price of electricity is $0.50 per kWh as of wastewater treatment facilities. Finally, since August 2022. January 2023, there has been a tax on waste water for businesses, such as restaurants and To increase the rate of sustainable energy to hotels. 60 percent in 2025, CGB has commissioned a project to build 10,816 solar panels (Dossier Energy Koninkrijksrelaties 2022b). These are planned to be functional by the end of 2023 and have The total installed energy capacity on Bonaire a total capacity of 10MW, equivalent to the is 37.56MW. CGB is responsible forelectricity consumption of 5,000 households. CGB is Source. CBS (2022a) production on Bonaire since 2013. In 2019, also planning to replace the wind turbines at CGB invested in five diesel generators and Morotin, a project expected to be realized in Figure 43: Number of water connections, 2007–2021 a new set of containerized batteries and 2025. replaced the energy management system with a power management system. A power The BES Electricity and Drinking Water Act management system is a tool by which CGB allows WEB customers to invest in sustainable manages frequency and voltage fluctuations. energy solutions such as solar panels. After The electricity production system on Bonaire inspection and approval of their installations, currently uses seven diesel generators and 13 these customers can send unused electricity wind turbines. There are 12 wind turbines east back to the grid. The total solar panels of of Rincon with a capacity of 900KW each, and approved installations are estimated to be a wind turbine of 330KW near Lac Bay. around 1.5MW. In 2021, Bonaire produced 130.6 million kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity. Of the total production, 29.2 million kWh (22 percent) came from renewable Source. CBS (2022a) Wastewater Management In 2021, 85 percent of the wastewater was Figure 44: Electricity production (in million kWh), 2007–2021 discharged without treatment. Untreated Since March 2013, WEB’s services have wastewater and the run-off from roads and included collecting and treating wastewater, roofs pose significant environmental threats, managing the wastewater treatment specifically to the marine park. Analyses of plant, and distributing irrigation water. The water quality conducted between 2011 and wastewater treatment plant’s capacity is 2013, as well as in 2020, found that nutrient 1,400 m3 per day. The current sewage system concentrations on the reefs were slightly network on the coastal strip of Kralendijk below the levels that can cause an increase in includes only 8.2 percent of the households, algae and cyanobacteria. This suggests that 102 hotels and apartments, and 62 restaurants. the water quality may deteriorate over time Trucks transport wastewater from septic (Slijkerman et al. 2013; Foekema et al. 2022). tanks and cesspits to the treatment facility. Critically, no further information is available concerning the bacteriological levels of Connection to the sewage system is surface water at critical locations or of the mandatory for households and businesses on sewage system effluents. the coastal strip from Hato to Punt Vierkant and about 330 meter inland. In urban areas, The Ministry of Infrastructure and Water the OLB is obliged to collect wastewater with Management is working with local parties tank trucks (WEB 2023). on a program to improve surface water Source. CBS (2022a) 48 | | 49 50 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 51 Figure 45: Number of electricity connections, 2007–2021 13000 9750 6500 Depletion of high-value natural ecosystems 3250 Bonaire has two protected areas: the Washington Slagbaai National Park (WSNP) and the Bonaire National Marine Park (BNMP), which includes the sea around Bonaire and the uninhabited island of Klein Bonaire. The island 0 government has commissioned Stichting Nationale Parken (STINAPA) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192 020 2021 Bonaire, a nongovernmental, not-for-profit foundation, to manage both Source. CBS (2022a) Other Households parks. The WSNP covers 5,853 hectares, approximately 17 percent of the island. BNMP area covers 2,845 hectares and includes all the waters Solid Waste Management surrounding Bonaire and the uninhabited island of Klein Bonaire, from the The only landfill on the island, near Lagun on Glass is expected to bepulverized and recycled high tide mark to 60 meters (200 feet) in depth. The lagoon LacBay is also the island’s west coast, has reached about 75– in construction materials in 2023. Action against part of the underwater park. Bonaire has four Ramsar sites21 that have a total 80 percent of its capacity. The amount of solid illegal waste dumping is a high priority in Bonaire’s area of 10,310 hectares. waste generated on Bonaire rose from about environmental and enforcement plans for 2023. 10,000 in 2013 to 27,885 tonnes in 2021 (Figure The current waste management improvement 46). Currently, only 5 percent of the waste is Table 7: Ramsar Sites program (Afvalbeheer op Maat – AoM) aims to recycled, and none of the organic waste is facilitate the transition from waste collection and In the four years preceding the pandemic, composted. Pollution from land-based sources, landfill use to waste processing and to develop WSNP received between 41,000 and 61,000 particularly plastic, has become a significant Selibon into a self-supporting waste management threat to open water environments. local and international visitors annually. organization. Created by the Ministry of The park encompasses the northwest tip of Infrastructure and Water Management to be Selibon N.V. is a government-owned, private Bonaire and is the oldest and one of the larg- administered by OLB, through Selibon, between company responsible for waste management 2013 and 2026, this 10 million EUR program has est terrestrial protected areas in the Dutch on Bonaire. Selibon aims to increase recycled 21 projects. The projects, which are at various Caribbean. The park’s most popular activities and compost organic waste to 10 percent and stages of development and implementation, fall are hiking, mountain biking, birdwatching, 3 percent, respectively, but an exact target date in the areas of waste prevention, reuse, recycling, has yet to be defined. Currently, biomedical and snorkeling, and scuba diving. Several shore- separation, processing, education, and awareness line access points provide access to the sea. organic waste is incinerated. Cardboard, glass, as well as the finishing and sustainable integration cans, and other metals and plastics can be of the landfill in the landscape. brought in separately and packed and shipped BNMP sold between 58,000 and 77,000 or kept apart on the landfill until processed. dive and other user tags annually from 2016 to 2019. Popular dive sites are on the Figure 46: Solid waste produced (in tonnes), 2013–2021 west coast and around Klein Bonaire. The marine park offers a wide range of recre- ational activities on which the island’s tour- Source. STINAPA (2021) ism-driven economy is heavily dependent. BNMP is on the tentative list of United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) world heritage sites. 21. A Ramsar site is a wetland site that has been designated as being of international importance under the UNESCO Source: Unpublished data provided by OLB/Selibon) Ramsar Convention on Wetlands. 50 | | 51 52 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 53 In the four years preceding the pandemic, Ten species that live in the Bonaire Marine Park, WSNP received between 41,000 and 61,000 and that are considered critically endangered local and international visitors annually. The in the IUCN red list, include different types of park encompasses the northwest tip of Bonaire coral, groupers, sharks, sawfish, and turtles. and is the oldest and one of the largest terrestrial protected areas in the Dutch Caribbean. The park’s The marine park includes various ecosystems most popular activities are hiking, mountain biking, such as coral reefs, seagrass beds, and mangrove birdwatching, snorkeling, and scuba diving. Several forests. In total, there are 416 terrestrial species The status of the environment Bonaire has dry and wet caves that are under shoreline access points provide access to the sea. of conservation interest. Seventy-five are on the threat f rom human disturbance, and f rom soil IUCN Red List of Threatened Species (Table 6). Exact figures on the current boundaries and groundwater contamination f rom sewage BNMP sold between 58,000 and 77,000 dive and oil leakage. The water caves are located and quality of Bonaire’s natural habitats Table 8: IUCN red list of threatened species mainly in the lower parts of the island, and there and other user tags annually from 2016 to 2019. are scarce (Debrot, Henkens, and are also sea caves with underwater entrances. Popular dive sites are on the west coast and around Verweij 2018). Most of the available data Caves are home to unique life forms and provide Klein Bonaire. The marine park offers a wide range need to be updated. critical habitats for at least five species of bats. of recreational activities on which the island’s Unlike many habitats in Europe, caves in the tourism-driven economy is heavily dependent. The degradation of the dry tropical forest is Caribbean lack internationally protected status BNMP is on the tentative list of United Nations as a habitat of unique fauna. mainly the result of overgrazing. Urbanization, Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization caused by population growth and growing Bonaire’s beaches are under severe pressure (UNESCO) world heritage sites. tourism, also threatens the dry tropical forest f rom climate change, tourism development, (Debrot 2018). Less ground cover means that population growth, invasive species, pollution, Figure 47: Number of National Park visitors, less sediment is anchored through root systems, and illegal removal of sand for commercial 2016–2020 causing high sediment inputs into coastal building construction. The beach habitat waters (Roberts et al. 2017). Increased sediment provides various ecosystem benefits (for Source: MacRae and De Meyer (2020) input leads to higher rates of coral reef death, example, coastal protection and habitat for slower growth, shifts in species composition, and turtles and birds). It is also a key tourism market Pekelmeer is a Salt Lake that runs along the changes in fish populations. Additionally, land attraction and an important income source for degradation leads to less water retention and Bonaire. Conservation efforts in the last decade southern portion of Bonaire’s southern wetlands. temperature increases. have increased the number of turtle nesting sites These wetlands cover a land area of 4,480 in Bonaire. hectares and are ecologically diverse. The site includes caves and karst, groundwater reservoirs, Figure 48: Number of turtle nests, 2004–2020 dry tropical forests, limestone coastal zones, salt pans, lagoons, and mangroves. What little development there is in the southern wetlands is limited mainly to the salt production operations of Cargill. Most southern wetlands have been identified as important bird and biodiversity areas. The southern wetlands are popular with residents and visitors for water sports, tours, beach visits, Source: STINAPA and other recreational activities such as jogging and cycling. Vigorous human interaction with In 2021, the Bonaire Palm, native solely to Bonaire, these areas threatens the integrity of these fragile was added to the critically endangered list of ecosystems. Information on the pattern and terrestrial species, with only 25 mature individuals number of users should therefore be collected left. The National park’s dry forest, cactus, scrub, and monitored. and wetland habitats provide a safe habitat for the island’s native terrestrial species, such as parrots, In 2022, Bonaire developed management plans Source: CBS (2022a) – Sea Turtle Conservation Bonaire and Dutch Caribbean Biodiversity Database flamingos, parakeets, iguanas, and many other species for Washington Slagbaai National Park (Crestian of birds and reptiles. There are 236 terrestrial species et al. 2022), Bonaire National Marine Park (De of conservation interest and 10 marine species on Meyer et al. 2022), and Bonaire’s Southern the International Union for Conservation of Nature Wetlands (Engel et al. 2022). These plans provide (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species (Table 6). complete overviews and management strategies for the respective areas. 52 | | 53 54 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 55 Mangrove forests on Bonaire are primarily new collaborative project monitored and mapped Figure 50: Flamingo abundance (yearly average), 1990–2020 found in Lac Bay, Lagun, and Pekelmeer. Lac these newly planted mangroves (DCNA 2022). A Bay and Pekelmeer are protected Ramsar healthy, fringing mangrove forest will provide new areas and are classified by World Wildlife habitats, nurseries, foraging grounds, and a vital Fund (WWF) as critical/threatened (WWF line of coastal defense for the southern wetlands. 2017). Mangroves provide essential ecosystem Figure 49. Mangrove loss in Lac Bay (2014-2020) benefits such as coastal protection, nurseries, and nursing areas for fish and crustaceans. They also form a catchment area for nutrients and foreign substances and thus play a vital role in protecting other habitats, such as seagrass beds and coral reefs. They are important feeding and resting areas for various bird species (Debrot, Henkens, and Verweij 2018). The Lac Bay’s mangrove area has decreased in recent decades. Between 1969 and 1996, it shrunk by more than two hectares per year. Critical threats that likely have caused this decline include Source. Dutch Caribbean Biodiversity Database overgrazing by introduced species, sedimentation (due to erosion), and reduced freshwater supply due to the construction of small dams, originally for livestock and agriculture (OLB 2020). The Seagrass beds are at risk due to urbanization and urban development, causing sediment increasing influx of Sargassum seaweed has Source: De Meyer et al, 2022 Bonaire National Marine threats, such as sediment runoff from land, and nutrient run-off into coastal waters, added another major threat to the mangroves. The Park Management Plan 2023 eutrophication, pollution, and damage associated with coral mortality and changes mangrove forest in Lac Bay is a natural drainage area and, therefore, a collection point for polluted In 2019, a BEST 2.0 grant was awarded to the Reef f rom tourism activities. Seagrass beds in benthic22 community composition. groundwater and washed-off sediment from Renewal Foundation Bonaire. This grant promotes are an essential nursery, growing area, and land degraded through erosion. This leads to biodiversity conservation and sustainable use of feeding area for numerous fish species, such Improving water management by building the accumulation of pollutants, eutrophication, ecosystem services, including an ecosystem-based as parrotfish, surgeonfish, and seabreams. and maintaining dams, run-offs, water storage silting, and landslide of the mangrove forest in approach to climate change adaptation and areas, and sediment traps is on the agenda Queen conches hide in the sand around the Lac Bay. In addition, the mangroves are under mitigation, in Overseas Countries and Territories seagrass field for the first year before they again since several flooding and sediment pressure from tourist-recreational and other urban (OCTs). The Mangrove Restoration Project Bonaire was selected, focusing on the island’s four main start using the seagrass field as a habitat. sheds in the ocean in 2022. Steps are being developments. Litter and oil pollution that wash mangrove restoration areas (Mangrove Maniacs Seagrass beds, a crucial feeding area for green made for an integrated water management ashore from the sea also threaten this habitat. 2023). The project is in execution and driven by sea turtles, provide many other ecosystem plan for Bonaire. In November 2022, a report Because of factors such as fertilizer run-off into the volunteer-based Mangrove Maniacs Bonaire services, such as sediment and carbon dioxide was presented for Integral Water Management rivers such as the Amazon River, the yearly Foundation in coordination with Stinapa. In 2022 on Bonaire (Waterschap Rijn en IJssel 2022). (CO2) storage. In Lac Bay, a decrease in the influx of Sargassum seaweed, a macroalgae a Resilience, Sustainable Energy and Marine cover ratio of native species in seagrass beds This report advises short- and long-term that grows rapidly, has exploded in the past few Biodiversity Programme (RESEMBID) fund was granted to realize a blue economy on Bonaire, to was observed between 1999 and 2007 (Engel actions to improve the water management years. Besides being a threat to nature, it also threatens tourist areas. When washed ashore, restore marine biodiversity, and promote sustainable 2008) and again between 2011 and 2013 (Engel systems and infrastructure on Bonaire. the algal bloom, which can grow into island-size recreation in Lac Bay (RESEMBID 2023). 2013). This decrease coincided with increased masses, decomposes within a few days, creating Based on the Reef Health Index (RHI) 23, coverage of the invasive seagrass H. stipulacea. a toxic environment for the marine ecosystem, Run-off of sediment from degraded land causes most reef sites of Bonaire are in reasonable In 2011, H. stipulacea covered 6 percent of Lac particularly mangroves. Via an early-warning silting of the salt pans and salt lakes (saliñas), to bad condition. In 2017, the average score resulting in loss of surface. Urbanization around Bay seagrass beds; by 2013, that number had system with satellites, webcams, and patrols, was 2.69 (fair). The covering of living coral Stinapa and OLB are preparing to launch large- Kralendijk is causing the loss of saliñas there. jumped to 14 percent (Engel 2013). Near Kralendijk, a large area (Salina di Vlijt) has has declined by more than 50 percent over scale operations to get the Sargassum from sea already virtually been lost in recent years due to Global climate change, tourism, unsustainable the past half-century. Figure 51 shows that to shore in a controlled way. Teams of Stinapa Rangers are trained to coordinate and support urbanization. Saliñas are shallow, semi-enclosed overfishing, and land-based pollution even at a relatively healthy location, such as these actions, and contractors are lined up to saltwater bodies mainly associated with coastal f rom human activity threaten the health Karpata—Bonaire’s northernmost snorkeling add material and human resources. Research drainage basins and are the primary breeding spot and one of the best dive sites on the of the coral reef around Bonaire. Other and small-scale experiments are being done on habitat for several ground-nesting seabirds, threats include tropical storms, coral disease island—the living coral cover has decreased the effects of Sargassum on mangroves and the notably terns and sandpipers. They are also crucial for (migratory) birds, such as the Caribbean outbreaks, invasive species, marine debris, f rom around 70 percent to below 30 percent use of Sargassum as fertilizer. Flamingo. Disruption from recreation is likely to and vessel damage. Local stressors are of the reef (Debrot, Henkens, and Verweij Using satellite images, the proportion of remaining adversely affect the breeding success of terns and overgrazing-induced terrestrial erosion 2018). healthy mangroves in 2012 was estimated at 56–60 the foraging success of the Caribbean flamingo. percent of the total mangrove area (Steneck et al. The presence of the flamingo is an important 22. The benthic zone is the ecological region at the lowest level of a body of water, such as an ocean floor or a riverbed. 2015). ​​ Since 2020, over 1500 mangroves have been indicator of habitat quality and has been tracked 23. The RHI is constructed from coral cover, macroalgae cover, biomass of key herbivorous fish, and biomass of key commercial planted along the southwest coast of Bonaire. A since 1990. (Debrot, Henkens, and Verweij 2018). fish. See Diaz-Perez et al. (2016) for more details about this index. 54 | | 55 56 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 57 Figure 51: Living coral cover at Karpata, 1973–2019 Source: Dutch Caribbean Biodiversity Database. Data analysis by Bak et al. (2016). However, Bonaire has shown progress since 2015: income comes from the $45 nature entrance biennial monitoring shows an increase in coral cover fee non-resident visitors pay to enter the park. and density of juvenile corals and a decrease in macroalgal cover, which inhibits coral growth. In Bonaire has been named the number one a 2021 report on the status of coral worldwide, the destination for offshore diving. In the event Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network named of a further decline in coral cover, essential the Bonaire National Marine Park (BNMP) one of ecosystem services such as tourism, fisheries, three successful coral rehabilitation case studies. and coastal protection are in danger of declining Financing the BNMP coral reef restoration project sharply in the coming years. is uniquely linked to tourism arrivals. Most of its Climate change The wave-breaking coral reefs’ degradation and worsening storms will likely contribute to more Various aspects of Bonaire will continue to be storm-related damage to infrastructure and tangible affected by climate change. Beukering et al. cultural heritage on the coast. Additionally, medical (2022) examine the impact on the economy, experts suggest that climate change could result in more deaths and illnesses due to rising heat waves. health, infrastructure, and cultural heritage. The findings indicate that in all the climate scenarios Only under the most optimistic climate scenario assessed, the island’s southern region is at risk of of limiting warming to 1.4 degrees Celsius there experiencing flooding due to sea level rise and will be no significant impact on coral reefs by severe storms. Moreover, the decline in healthy 2050. However, dive sites could dwindle from coral reefs increases the likelihood of flooding and 86 to 13 in the most extreme climate scenario within the next three decades. This would storm impact, as coral reefs function as natural lead to a decline in diving tourism and have a barriers. considerable economic impact. PICTURE BY: Lorenzo Foto’s Bonaire’s Media Hub 56 | | 57 58 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 59 Island Population Model scenarios Growth In order to fill the new supply, the simulated growth models assume an initial 16 percent growth in non-resident air arrivals in 2023, Scenarios compared to pre-pandemic numbers (2019 baseline). Growth rates for each of the three scenarios, from 2024-2017, will be: • Status quo: the most likely growth scenario if business as usual is continued on Bonaire - Introduction All three models predict inevitable growth in tourism investment, arrivals, and population 2023 attributable to the rebound of the tourism growth returns to pre-pandemic dynamics. Based on the identified challenges to the industry, the island’s main economic driver. o 121 tourism rooms added per year island’s carrying capacity, the World Bank Bonaire already doubled the accommodation team developed econometric models to supply, by adding 880 new tourism rooms o 4 percent growth per year in air tourism assess the impacts of short-term visitors between 2020 and 2023. This new supply arrivals Goto Lake and long-term population historical trends will pull additional visitor demand as well o 4.4 percent population growth per year• PICTURE BY: Casper Douma on economic, social, and environmental as tourism employees from abroad. In turn, Bonaire’s Media Hub Accelerated growth: Bonaire prioritizes rapid indicators. The resulting model was used to these dynamics lead to population growth economic growth by continuing to exponentially project the effects of future population growth and carrying capacity pressures. See Figure 52 increase the tourism accommodation supply up to 2027. Three growth model scenarios are for a theoretical description of the dynamics to attract more overnight tourism visitors. Model inputs compared: status quo, accelerated growth, described. and slow growth. o 226 tourism rooms added per year (2024–2027) The growth model indicators related to the challenges identified through expert Figure 52 Theoretical framework for Bonaire growth model scenarios o 8 percent growth per year in air tourism workshops, town hall meetings, interviews, arrivals desk research, and a resident sentiment o 6.9 percent population growth per year survey as described in the previous chapters. The relationship among these indicators was Slow growth: Bonaire prioritizes a higher-value, modeled using a regression approach and a lower-impact economic development approach, minimum time frame of 8 years, 2011–2019; where social and environmental capacity is excluding 2020-2021 due to unusual covid19 pandemic dynamics. The model assesses the equally prioritized24. elasticity of population and visitor arrivals o 30 tourism rooms added per year (2024–2027) growth on a set of economic, social, and environmental carrying capacity impact o 1 percent growth per year in air tourism arrivals indicators. See Appendix D for further o 2.7 percent population growth 2.7% CAGRper explanation of the methodology. year 24. In line with the nature-inclusive vision of the Bonaire report by Wageningen University & Research (Verweij et al. 2023). 58 | | 59 60 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 61 The key variables of the model are defined as follows: • Population growth significantly impacts the number of vehicles licensed on the island. An increase of 1 percent • GDP: The island’s total gross domestic product in population growth leads to a 2.68 percent growth expressed in real terms (constant prices). in the number of vehicles circulating on the island. • Visitor arrivals (by air): The number of non-unique, Additional impact indicators were included in the three non-resident air visitors to the island. These include growth scenarios, based on the following assumptions: overnight and day visitors that arrive by air (excluding cruise passengers day-visitors)25. • One tourism accommodation supply generates 56 overnight visitor arrivals a year. Derived using current • Population: The total population of the island’s occupancy rates and the average length of stay (TCB permanent residents by year. 2023) • Tourism rooms: The supply of visitor accommodation • At least 633 new tourism rooms were added to the room facilities available for hire, including hotels, resorts, accommodation supply between 2020 and 2022, and an bed and breakfasts, lodges holiday apartments, villas, additional 247 new rooms will open in 2023 (TCB 2023). and houses. • The current hotel occupancy rate is 68 percent and • Tourism employees: The number of direct employees is expected to reach 75 percent by 2027, per TCB’s in the tourism sector (accommodation and food serving). tourism strategy (TCB 2023). • Vehicle licenses: The total number of active vehicle • Of the non-resident air arrivals, 80 percent are overnight license permits on the island per year, including trucks, visitors that stay in hired accommodation facilities, vans, cars, motorcycles, and rental car fleets. reaching 90 percent by 2027 (TCB 2023). • Average price of sold dwelling: The average cost Lac Bay • The average length of stay of tourism overnight arrivals PICTURE BY: Jan Wachtmeester of sold homes registered by the Land Registry on remains constant, at 8.8 days, per Bonaire tourism Bonaire’s Media Hub Bonaire. Includes all transactions of residences on statistics (TCB 2023). the island, new and existing, whether bought or sold Status Quo growth model by a private individual, corporate party, or otherwise. • The Bonaire-born resident population grows organically Bonaire has been measuring the dwelling price index at a 1.65 percent annual growth rate, as derived using The simulated Status Quo model expects 742 since 2011 (2011=100). CBS data. Any additional population growth is attributed new tourism rooms to be added by 2027 (31 to net migration (CBS 2023). percent increase), from 2,382 in 2022 to 3,124 Figure 53: Status Quo model: tourism rooms The results of the elasticity model show: rooms by 2027. The GDP per room is expected vs. GDP per room growth, 2022–2027 • An overnight visitor uses 500 liters per day, and a to remain constant, at US$241,000 per year • Visitor arrivals, of which 80 percent constitute overnight resident uses 150 liters per day, as derived using WEB over five years. tourists, contribute positively to the island’s economic data (WEB 2022). activity. An increase of 1 percent in tourism arrivals The expansion in tourism room inventory drives results in a 0.76 percent increase in GDP. • Solid waste production per overnight visitor is 2kg additional visitor overnight demand. These per day, and per resident is 3kg per day; both of these new facilities will also directly increase the • Visitor arrivals contribute significantly to direct tourism rates are produced in Aruba and used as a benchmark job market in both the construction and the jobs. An increase of 1 percent in tourism arrivals results for Bonaire tourism sectors, and in a tight labor market, in a 2.60 percent increase in direct tourism jobs. will result in a need to bring in workers from • One ton of solid waste landfilled generates three • Visitor arrivals contribute to an increase in population outside the island26. metric tons of Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2e) per growth. A rise of 1 percent in tourism arrivals results in year. One gasoline-powered passenger vehicle produces Furthermore, operations of the new a 1.1 percent increase in population. 4.6 metric tons of CO2e per year. The estimates are accommodation facilities will increase the based on the United States Environmental Protection load on the already limited capacity of the • A rise of 1 percent in population growth leads to a Agency greenhouse gas equivalencies (GHG) calculator. public and utility infrastructure. 1.73 percent increase in the average price index of dwellings sold. 25. This scenario analysis excludes the impact of cruise tourism because there is a lack of data on the number of cruise visi- 26. For example, the 2017 Tourism Strategic Plan calculated that for each additional four-star hotel room, four new jobs (one tors who disembark, and on the island’s current visitor flow and visitor activities. in the hotel, one in the tourist sector, and two in the private and public sectors) would be created. 60 | | 61 62 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 63 The added tourism supply will drive a 27 percent With the gain of foreign workers and their Licensed road vehicles will increase by 78 increase in visitor arrivals, reaching 215,928 by families, and the already ongoing, continuous, percent, from 19,993 in 2022 to 39,716 in 2027, 2027. This will stimulate additional investment non-tourism-related net migration, the island’s worsening traffic congestion and air pollution, population will rise by 33 percent over five years, in tourism-related goods and services (such banks and financial institutions to assess the and affecting road maintenance and waste from 22,573 in 2022 to 31,880 by 2027. as restaurants and car rentals), resulting in attainability of the house by the loan seeker. management (car oil, tires, parts). higher visitor exports. The upsurge in population will augment the When homes are becoming less affordable, need for additional housing, schools, hospitals, The solid waste sent to landfills will surge the price-to-income ratio goes up. The augmented tourism dynamics will expand and other social services and facilities, as well as by 25 percent from 28,000 tonnes to 35,000 GDP by 22 percent, from US$582 million in add pressure on the public infrastructure (roads, tonnes annually. The current landfill in Lagun The additional population will lead to a higher 2022 to US$703 million by 2027. imports, and food supply, among others) and is close to capacity and at risk of impacting the on utilities (water, sewage, waste, and energy). cost of living and limited access to affordable housing, directly impacting residents’ quality health of residents and the environment; any Such a load will require additional measures to Figure 54: Status quo model: Visitor tourism additional load aggravates those risks. protect the environment from pollution and of life. arrivals vs. GDP growth, 2022–2027 encroachment. Figure 57: Status quo model: Average house Desalinated water consumption will increase by With the increase in foreign-born residents purchase price vs. house price ratio, 2022–2027 26 percent from 2 million m3 to 2.5 million m3 outpacing the organic growth of Bonaire-born yearly—almost the maximum capacity of the residents, the share of the Bonaire-born population current desalinated water production facility, will fall. In 2022, Bonaire-born residents represented which is 2.6 million m3 annually. There are 34 percent of the population; by 2027, they will represent 27 percent. additional energy consumption implications for the disposal of brine waste from the facility, This dynamic will have further implications of as well as the sewage management associated alienating the local community and threatening with the increase of black and gray water. the preservation of Bonaire’s culture and language. Furthermore, estimated greenhouse gas Figure 56: Status quo model: Total population emissions from vehicles and landfill gasses vs. Bonaire-born population ratio, 2022–2027 on Bonaire will increase by 46 percent in this five-year timeframe—from 142,000 to 207,000 metric tons of CO2e released into the air per year27. It takes one year for 100,000 hectares To service the new accommodation supply of conserved primary forest to absorb 207,000 and provide additional tourism food services, MT CO2e. the tourism job market will double from 4,925 employees in 2022 to 9,483 by 2027. The steep rise in new positions in an already tight labor Table 9: Status quo model: Physical-environmental indicators (vehicles, waste, water, CO2e) market will lead to an influx of workers from outside the island and a surge in the resident population. Figure 55: Status quo model: Direct tourism employees vs. labor productivity growth, 2022–2027 The average price per dwelling will rise with the increased need for housing. This dynamic will increase the average price per dwelling by 46 percent, from US$401,500 in 2022 to US$587,600 by 2027. In turn, the housing price ratio (average price/GDP per capita) increases by 41 percent in the same period. Price-to-income ratio is normally measured as the ratio between the price of a median home to that of the median annual household income. This indicator measures the long-term 27. Additional data are needed to include the total greenhouse gas emissions of the island, such as electricity grid consump- affordability of homes in a region and is used by tion and additional household and industrial natural gas consumption. 62 | | 63 64 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 65 Growth model scenario comparisons Resident population scenario, the island can focus on integrating the All three growth model scenarios derived, as explained at the beginning of this section, expect the same All three scenarios will exceed CBS’s current already existing foreign-born population and growth between 2022-2024. By 2027, the differences between each approach will become more apparent. population projection of 26,000 by 2030. Yet, implementing cultural conservation measures. Therefore, for this study, the following tables compare the resulting values of the impact indicated on the final the slow-growth model is more closely aligned Average price per dwelling sold year of the 5-year growth projection model. The economic, socio-economic, and physical-environmental with the CBS forecasts. Both the status quo and All three scenarios predict an increased cost of accelerated growth present high population living, indicated in the hike of the average price indicators are grouped, and the resulting differences’ impact is compared below. growth scenarios adding additional pressure to per dwelling sold. The average prices derived by the island infrastructure and society. all three models may not be realistic because, Table 11: Socioeconomic indicators scenario analysis 2027 beyond a certain threshold, the cost will dissuade Resident population born on Bonaire ratio newcomers to the island from coming. The 4.7 Unless the net migration is equal to the net birth/ percent increase in the slow-growth scenario is, death rate ratio, the share of the population born of the three, the most favorable. The slow-growth in Bonaire will continue to decrease. The share scenario allows time to introduce housing of the Bonaire-born population will be the least regulations to favor local residents. affected in the slow-growth scenario. In this Table 12: Physical-environmental indicators scenario analysis 2027 Visitor arrivals new developments to 30 rooms per year. These The target of 200,000 air tourism arrivals by 2027, 30 rooms could represent the addition of small set by the STMP, is surpassed in both the status high-quality boutique hotels that attract higher- quo and the accelerated growth scenario, while value tourism attracted to the pristine nature of the slow growth scenario adheres to the nature- Bonaire. During this time, a higher focus can inclusive vision for Bonaire. be given to increasing the quality of the current outdated supply, and improving services and GDP occupancy rates. Therefore, this route can lead to Though the Accelerated growth model appears expanding the economic contribution of tourism Vehicle licenses Solid Waste to landfill more favorable, growing the economy at a 6% and labour productivity. Given the landfill is already close to capacity and The current absence of a public transportation rate year over year, can lead to reduced labour the health risks it already poses for residents system on the island increases the need for productivity and inflation rates. While the slow Tourism employees all scenarios pose a solid waste management private transportation, both for local residents as growth scenario supports a healthy 2.43 percent The slow growth scenario leads to 887 new challenge. well as car rentals for visitors. All three scenarios GDP growth per year. tourism jobs, while the accelerated growth model can expect a high increase in road vehicles. GreenHouse Gas emissions leads to more than 3,124 new jobs, compared The resulting greenhouse gas emissions from Tourism rooms to the number of tourism jobs in 2021. This Desalinated Water Usage vehicles and landfill surpass the emissions of even The accelerated growth model would double difference is drastic, and in a tight labour market, In the accelerated growth scenario, the island’s other Caribbean islands with a higher population. the tourism room inventory in 8 years. Given that it has direct implications for the local population, water consumption will exceed the current For example, Dominica, with a population of occupancy rates are already lower than ideal, 68 as workers need to be imported. Noting that in desalinated water production capacity of 2.6 72,000, emits 185,000 MT of CO2e; Aruba emits percent vs 80 percent, the increase in room supply the slow-growth model, if a high-end or luxury million m3. And it will come to near capacity in 286,000 MT of CO2e with a population of 101,000; can lead to unhealthy price competitiveness, market is sought after, additional jobs per room the status quo model. Since the sewage system and St. Kitts and Nevis emits 203,000MT of CO2e ultimately causing a decline in tourism quality will be needed. Therefore, careful consideration is already suboptimal, any growth scenario poses with a population of 52,000. (Worldometer 2023). and less income per tourist. Therefore, the GDP should be given when defining a tourism market a high risk to the ecosystem. target could only be met by mass tourism strategy. In contrast, the slow-growth scenario would curb Table 13: Slow-growth scenario targets Scenario analysis conclusions Table 11: Socio-economic indicators scenario analysis 2027 The slow and controlled growth model is Bonaire’s most sustainable growth option. This model prioritizes healthy economic growth while investing in public infrastructure to meet the needs of a growing population, mitigating environmental risks while promoting a stronger, more vibrant, and thriving society. Under a coherent vision for growth, Bonaire can manage its current carrying-capacity constraints. The next section will present recommended interventions that will allow Bonaire to increase its carrying capacity potential and achieve sustainable growth. 64 | | 65 66 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 67 1. Cohesive development policy 1.5 (NEW) Neighborhood Council Associations: Create a new, non-governmental body to Rationale promote citizen participation in local government decisions, directly involving communities in Urban Carrying Bonaire has different strategic plans (for example, tourism, nature, environment, and culture), but managing neighborhood projects and facilities. these are separate and not aligned under one strategic master plan for Bonaire. This has led 2. Access to affordable housing to fragmented institutional visioning and a Capacity need for more specific and harmonized policies. Rationale The expected population growth, partly driven Desired outcome by economic growth in the next decade, will One vision and roadmap aligning all island increase the need for additional dwellings on the Potential stakeholders, plans, and projects on growth and island even more. The burgeoning population development critical for the local community. will likely affect house prices if the supply is not increased, and the availability of homes will Actions become a more significant issue. In addition, To address this constraint, the following highest- the growing number of tourist arrivals has priority strategic planning and policy tool, made it lucrative for homeowners to rent out currently on hold, should be finalized: their property as a short-term rental, thereby reducing the inventory for long-term housing. 1.1 The Sustainable Development Master Plan PICTURE BY: Lorenzo Foto’s (SDM): Development of an overarching plan that Desired outcome Bonaire’s Media Hub sets forth island goals, objectives, policies, and To increase access to affordable housing, improved investments needed for community growth equal opportunities, poverty alleviation, quality and development over the next 10–20 years. It of life of residents, and guarantee sustainable should provide a unified vision and roadmap growth. aligning all island stakeholders, plans, and projects. Actions Once the master plan is validated, the following To better regulate the housing market, the two planning tools currently under development following policy reforms and regulation tools should be revised to align with the set vision: should be implemented and enforced: 1.2 The Spatial Development Plan Bonaire 2.1 Land-value and property tax reform: Reform (ROB): Development of an overarching spatial the current terms on second-home property urban planning vision and strategy based on tax and land value tax to limit demand, control nature, growth, environment, and economics housing prices, and disincentivize second-home The following recommendations would ownership. analysis. This tool provides guidance on a more mitigate the urban carrying-capacity rational territorial organization of land uses 2.2 Rental market regulation: Revision of the challenges and increase Bonaire’s and the linkages between them to balance rent regulation system of laws with an aim development potential, by reducing the demands for development with the need to to ensure affordable housing and affordable protect the environment and achieve social pressures of population and visitors growth tenancies on the rental market. and economic objectives. and increasing public infrastructure capacity. 2.3 (NEW) Housing permit policy: Definition The section presents a mixture of both new 1.3 The Strategic Tourism Master Plan (STMP): of housing purchasing and building permit Creation of a tourism development vision and and existing programs to be implemented, requirements to favor residents. roadmap to guide strategic decisions in product expanded, or enforced. development and its investment needs in 2.4 (NEW) Tourism rental licenses: Increase physical infrastructure, transportation, business housing availability for Bonaire residents by Appendix E presents a detailed summary table development, and impact management. limiting the number of rental properties set aside describing the recommended interventions, for tourism-designed purposes by implementing To operationalize the master plan vision, the and enforcing a licensing requirement when organized by identified carrying-capacity following governance programs should be renting for short-term purposes, following the challenge theme and subtheme. The strategic implemented: STMP and ROB guidelines. implementation stakeholders are identified 1.4 A Sustainable Development Master Plan To support residents’ accessibility to housing as the existing policies and programs, Office: Expand the current Project Implementation and homeownership, significantly expand the possible implementation risks, and additional Office (Het Project Uitvoeringsbureau; PUB) to following programs: become the Sustainable Development Master considerations. Plan office responsible for the planning and 2.5 Social housing projects: Expansion of the execution of various strategic and complex socially affordable housing development to projects and programs. meet social housing needs. 66 | | 67 68 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 69 2.6 Bonaire Mortgage Guarantee (Hypotheek 3.5 (NEW) Internship exchange program: 4.4 Cultural tourism products and services: 5.2 (NEW) Public transportation system: To Garantie Bonaire, HGB): Expansion of the Create a formal exchange program that brings Strengthen cultural, heritage, and community- reduce the number of vehicles, residents’ national mortgage guarantee loans program to students from abroad and sends out Bonaire based tourism products, itineraries, interpretations transportation costs, traffic congestion, carbon support Bonaire residents seeking to purchase students to study and work overseas. of tourism assets and sites, and associated footprint, and solid waste (in the form of used a home. 3.6 Adult vocational training and job placement: goods and services. tires, oil, old cars, and so on), invest in a public Expand vocational training and apprenticeship bus transportation system. placements. 4.5 Tour guide cultural training: Strengthen 3. Wide and fair benefit tour guiding cultural tourism training program. Effectively manage wastewater and solid waste to reduce the risk of contaminating the distribution Stimulate new product development and improve environment with harmful pathogens that affect the quality of tourism goods and services by Stimulate community cohesion through programs human health and contribute to environmental Rationale supporting local entrepreneurship: that connect people from different backgrounds degradation, by operationalizing and expanding Although Bonaire’s economy has grown over the and cultures through meaningful interactions, the following programs: last few years, not everyone has benefited to the 3.7 Business incubator and innovation such as: same degree. Inflation has been rising but wages center: Expand the resources and reach of the 5.3 Wastewater vision and management: To BusinesSpark Playa organization, which helps 4.5 (NEW) Kunuku gardens program: Promote have not kept up, and consumer purchasing power achieve decentralized wastewater treatment local entrepreneurs develop their businesses community gatherings and activities in traditional for some groups is nearly stagnant. Residents and operationalize the wastewater vision of the by providing a range of services, including kunuku28 recreational community gardening and Nature and Environment Policy Plan (NMBP) have captured only a small share of the economic management training, office space, and venture gastronomic experiences, while encouraging as defined in the Water Circles program and opportunities, while newcomers with more skills, capital financing. local food production, healthy eating, and its five pilots. experience, and assets have been able to take community cohesion. advantage of the economic opportunities. The result of this uneven access to opportunities, and 4. Social equity and 5.4 Wastewater treatment plant expansion: 5. Affective productive Operationalize the NMBP Sewage Expansion and the lack of inclusive growth, is that economic cultural integration growth is unevenly distributed, and this disparity infrastructure Connections program by increasing the sewage has not changed significantly. treatment plant’s capacity and expanding the Rationale Rationale household connections network. The growing population, driven mainly by Desired outcome Bonaire’s productive infrastructure is currently immigration, is starting to impact the island’s 5.5 Sustainable waste management: Expand To ensure equitable resource distribution, fair limited. There is no public transport system, and cultural identity. While there are ongoing initiatives the current waste management improvement wages, access to jobs, quality education and the airport and seaport have limited capacity, to preserve traditions, cultural heritage, and the program (Afvalbeheer op Maat – AoM) to improve services; allowing all citizens the opportunity to which poses a risk to food security because language, the fact that Bonaire-born residents waste processing, reduce waste generation at become economically successful and improve there is a heavy dependence on imported now represent a minority is creating a resident the source, and implement recycling programs. their quality of life. goods. The road network is in poor condition backlash against further immigration. Prioritize enforcement of waste management and lacks a proper drainage system, reducing Actions the safety of the roads and posing a threat to regulations and illegal dumping of waste in Desired outcome The following policy reforms will help reduce the environment. The utilities are also under mundi29 and in mining quarries. To strengthen social cohesion and foster a sense and control the influx of new residents: pressure due to the rapidly growing population of community that celebrates diversity while Engage the community in waste management and overnight visitors. Because of the lack revitalizing the uniquely Bonarian cultural heritage and infrastructure development to encourage 3.1 Immigration law reform: Review all exceptions of freshwater sources, the island completely values and expressions. awareness and accountability: to the immigration and entry requirements by depends on desalinated water production. There nationality. is limited recycling, and the landfill is close to Actions 5.6 (NEW) Home sewage treatment: For houses capacity, posing a risk to people’s health and To improve awareness of local heritage, art, and that cannot connect to the sewage plant, develop 3.2 Work visa: Review the foreign employment the environment. Finally, wastewater treatment history and promote community cohesion and a program that systematically retrofits old act exemptions to favor residents’ access to is practically non-existent, which poses a threat cultural pride, expand the cultural content and cesspools with modern septic tanks. Project 17 competitive job placements. to community health and environmental risks. education programs such as these: within the NMBP program will result in research Desired outcome on this substitution project. Decrease poverty levels and increase the well- 4.1 National Culture Funds: Use the national being and self-support of the community by To deliver sustainable infrastructure systems that 5.7 (NEW) Neighborhood/community culture funds and cultural coaches to develop a improve productivity, and efficiency, increase addressing wages. infrastructure funds: Develop a grants mechanism robust cultural heritage and creative arts agenda consumer welfare, creates more business for community-led projects for neighborhood- for the local community. opportunities, and drives innovation. 3.3 Minimum wages: Raise the minimum wage specific infrastructure development uses, such to match the inflation rate. Actions as regenerating community centers, roadwork, 4.2 Bonaire cultural education: Strengthen the To improve road safety and residents’ quality of parks, SME grants, and charities, among others. cultural heritage school curriculum (elementary life, the government should invest in the road Invest in education and skills development to and secondary) and compulsory teacher training help improve recruitment of qualified locals, and transportation system in the following ways: 5.8 (NEW) Sustainable private sector water program. management: Subsidize audits of water-use increase the salary potential of resident youth, and stimulate job retention and professional 5.1 Multi-year road program – Meerjarenprogramma efficiency of homes, businesses, and industrial 4.3 (NEW) Papiamentu classes: Provide ongoing Wegen Bonaire (MJOP): Implement a road plant subsidized programs. Include incentives growth in the tourism sector: and widely available Papiamentu classes for all renovation program. to encourage the rof plumbing fixtures and ages and levels. appliances with water-efficient models. 3.4 Tourism scholarships: Expand the Bonaire Tourism Scholarship program by funding Increase the quality of the tourism experience individual professional development courses and raise awareness of local cultural heritage and full-time academic courses in all areas of and cultural pride by developing rich cultural 28. Means plantation (field, farmland, or arable land) in Papiamentu. hospitality, hotel, and tourism management. tourism offerings: 29. Outback in papiamento 68 | | 69 70 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 71 5.10 (NEW) Rainwater harvesting: Introduce the negative impacts of urban development and a rainwater harvesting system in the building population growth. codes for new construction to increase rainwater 6.4 (NEW) Water quality research program: Create storage at home for non-drinking purposes a permanent monitoring and reporting program for (cleaning, gardening, and so on). water quality and sedimentation in coastal waters 5.11 Safe disposal of marine vessel wastewater: Enforce to determine the impact of urban development on the disposal of yacht wastewater outside the marine coastal water quality for human bathing and for the park or via a collection system. health of marine species. 5.12 Single-use plastic ban: Enforce a ban on single-use Create environmental awareness and generate plastic and expand the list of banned plastic products. commitment from a range of different stakeholders to implementing and expanding the following programs: 6. Protection and Conservation 6.5 The Bonaire bond passport pledge: Expand the of natural resources visibility of, and strengthen the commitment to, the Rationale Bonaire bond pledge by integrating it with passport Concluding Remarks Bonaire has a unique and fragile environment. The control and immigration, and by monitoring the entire coastline of the island is a designated marine impact of the program. sanctuary. Bonaire is home to one of only four nesting grounds for the Caribbean flamingo. The island 6.6 (NEW) Marine Park permits: harbors ten critically endangered marine species Adjust the volume and boundaries of marine park and one terrestrial species, the native Bonaire Palm permits for activities in vulnerable areas based on a The main objective of this study was to provide the information and tools or Bonairean Sabal. Exact figures about the current carrying-capacity study of the park. necessary to inform Bonaire’s growth strategy. The findings of the resident boundaries and quality of natural habitats are scarce; most of the available data are outdated. However, 6.7 Ban on coral unfriendly sunscreen: Implement survey showed that people living on Bonaire recognize the tourism sector as an there are enough data to attribute the degradation of and enforce a ban on sunscreens that contain important driver of economic growth but also expressed their concern about the various fragile ecosystems (dry tropical forest, dry chemicals harmful to coral reefs in combination with an awareness and communication plan. the lack of inclusiveness of economic development on the island. There are also and wet caves, saliñas, mangroves, seagrass beds, and the coral reef) to urban sprawl, pollution, and human worries about the recent growth in population and the associated risk of loss interaction. In the event of a further deterioration of 6.8 (NEW) Regulating fish quotas: Introduce a fish of culture and the impact of development on the natural environment. Desk the coral reef, essential ecosystem services such as quota system for local anglers and charter ships for research, interviews, and focus groups indicated that there had been multiple tourism, fisheries, and coastal protection are in danger tourists. of declining sharply in the coming years. studies and reports over the years. However, a cohesive road map for development that aligns all the Island stakeholders, plans, and projects is lacking. While there 6.9 (NEW) Building codes update and enforcement: Desired outcome has been no shortage of studies, the lack of human and financial resources is Prevent illegal construction that could harm the coastal To protect and conserve Bonaire’s high-value ecosystems ecosystem by updating building code ordinances partly the problem causing implementation issues of these plans. The same from overconsumption and pollution and guarantee for coastal areas and strengthening enforcement lack of resources also contributes to the lack of reinforcement of policies and the longevity of a healthy community and thriving mechanisms. economy. regulations. Ensuring that Bonaire has access to the required resources will then also be key to the future of the island. Another issue is the lack of timely Actions 6.10 Junior Rangers Program: Expand the STINAPA To build a resilient ecosystem that allows the sustainable Junior Rangers educational program on nature and detailed information needed for evidence-based decision-making. There use of resources, the following nature plans and conservation for young Bonaireans. Impart knowledge is a need to collect data on indicators that measure the broad economic, social, programs should be fully executed: and develop attitudes, skills, and a sense of responsibility and environmental aspects of the island on a regular basis. This study lays out that empower and enable Bonairean youth to take 6.1 Nature and Environmental Policy Plan: Implement proactive steps toward preserving nature and its three different growth scenarios for the next five years. Which scenario will be the Nature and Environmental Policy Plan for the components. Bonaire’s future can be controlled by making a clear decision that is followed Caribbean Netherlands (NMBP-CN), establishing an through by implementation and reinforcement of the policies and regulations integrated framework that assigns clear responsibilities, 6.11 Nature conservation awareness campaigns: that are guided by the chosen development path. defines policy targets, and spells out legal obligations Expand the reach of the Boneiru Duradero (WWF-NL related to the management of the natural environment. Dutch Caribbean marine program), creating awareness campaigns and free online training programs for 6.2 Washington Slagbaai National Park Management the public to learn about nature protection and Plan: Implement the National Park management plan, conservation initiatives and projects. including available scientific knowledge on the area’s geology, ecology, and history, identification of the main threats, incorporating advice from stakeholders, 6.12 Tour guide’s environmental training: Strengthen and proposing actions to safeguard the natural and the environmental awareness content of the tour cultural heritage of the national park. guide training program. 6.3 Bonaire Marine Park Management Plan and 6.13 Reforestation Program: Expand programs Bonaire’s Southern Wetlands Management Plan: that involve the local community in managing and Implement the Marine Park management plan restoring the dry forest. Raise awareness about the and Bonaire’s Southern Wetlands Management dry forest’s importance, its vulnerability, and the Plan, setting out a roadmap that balances fishing, implications of its degradation; restore the natural marine conservation and restoration, and sustainable habitat of endangered species that are losing space recreational use while mitigating and preventing to urban development. 70 | | 71 72 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 73 List of References Bak, R. P. M., D. de Bakker, E.H.W.G. 2012,” June 6, 2015. https://www.cbs.nl/ Wageningen Marine Research Wageningen Engel, S., J. Johnson, P. Bertuol, and J. Meesters. 2016. Reef photo quandrants of en-gb/news/2015/24/incoming-tourism- UR (University & Research Centre), van der Ploeg. 2022. Bonaire’s Southern Bonaire and Curacao. Raw photo material contributed-16-4-percent-to-bonaire-s- Wageningen Marine Research rapport Wetlands Management Plan. Kralendijk: of the 1973-2016 surveys. Raw data. economy-in-2012. C086/17. 214 blz. STINAPA, OLB & Cargill. Bes Reporter. 2020. “Presentation of CBS. 2021. “Cruise Passengers Bonaire, De Commissie Integrale Sociaal- FCB. 2021. Fundashon Cas Bonaireano Bonaire Masterplan 2030 Postponed 2012-2021,” July 1, 2021. https://www. Economische Aanpak Bonaire. 1992. Hoofdpunten Jaarverslag 2021. https:// once more,” November 2, 2020. https:// cbs.nl/en-gb/custom/2021/26/cruise- Rapport van de Commissie lntegrale dossierkoninkrijksrelaties.nl/wp-content/ bes-reporter.com/presentation-of-bonaire- passengers-bonaire-2012-2021. Sociaal-Economische Aanpak Bonaire. uploads/2022 /04 /Jaar verslag- en- masterplan-2030-postponed-once-more. https://www.banboneirubek.com/sites/ jaarrekening-FCB-2021-verkort-def initief. CBS. 2022a. StatLine: The Netherlands in default/files/RapportPourier.pdf. pdf. Bes Reporter. 2023. “Bonaire wants Figures. https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/ to enforce policy limiting number of CBS/en/. De Meyer, K., D.R. MacRae, J. Raming, C. Foekema, E.F., R-L. Francisca, J. Stapel, cruise ships in harbor,” February 11, 2023. Eckrich, and J. van der Ploeg. 2022. Bonaire and J. van Ooijen. 2022. Coastal water https://bes-reporter.com/bonaire-wants- CBS. 2022b. Population forecast, Caribbean National Marine Park Management Plan quality of Bonaire, St. Eustatius, and Saba to-enforce-policy-limiting-number-of- Netherlands 2022-2050. https://www. 2022-2028. Kralendijk: STINAPA. during a period of restricted tourism: T0 cruise-ships-in-harbor. cbs.nl/en-gb/background/2022/39/ monitoring October-December 2020. population-forecast-caribbean- Díaz-Pérez, L., F.A. Rodríguez-Zaragoza, M. Wageningen Marine Research report No. Bonaire.nu. 2022a. “Bezetting hotels netherlands-2022-2055. Ortiz, A.L. Cupul-Magaña, J.D. Carriquiry, C026/22. Ijmuiden: Wageningen Marine Bonaire weer terug op niveau, kamerprijs E. Ríos-Jara, ... and M.D.C. García-Rivas. Research. https://doi.org/10.18174/570162. fors gestegen,” December 5, 2022. https:// CBS. 2022c. Bonaire; Household Income 2016. Coral reef health indices versus bonaire.nu/2022/12/05/bezetting-hotels- per Neighbourhood, 2011-2020. https:// the biological, ecological and functional Forward Keys. 2022. Caribbean bonaire-weer-terug-op-niveau-kamerprijs- www.cbs.nl/en-gb/custom/2022/37/ diversity of fish and coral assemblages in Tourism Recovery – Lead by Example. fors-gestegen. b o n a i re - h o u s e h o l d - i n co m e - p e r- the Caribbean Sea. PloS one, 11(8), e0161812. Forwardkeys.com. https://forwardkeys. neighbourhood-2011-2020. com/caribbean-tourism-recovery-lead-by- Bonaire.nu. 2022b. “Taskforce moet Dossier Koninkrijksrelaties. 2021. “Aantal example/?utm_content=224410942&utm_ korte-termijn verhuur in woonwijken Crestian, A., Q. Coolen, R. Francisca, hotelkamers op Bonaire groeit tot eind m e d i u m = s o c i a l & u t m _ Bonaire tegengaan,” June 1, 2022. https:// and J. van der Ploeg. 2022. Washington 2022 met 30%.” August 3, 2021. https:// source=linkedin&hss_channel=lcp-1450163. bonaire.nu/2022/06/01/taskforce-moet- Slagbaai National Park management dossierkoninkrijksrelaties.nl/2021/08/03/ korte-termijn-verhuur-in-woonwijken- plan 2022-2028. Kralendijk: STINAPA. aantal-hotelkamers-op-bonaire-groeit- Li B, Guan M, Zhan L, Liu C, Zhang Z, bonaire-tegengaan. tot-eind-2022-met-30. Jiang H, Zhang Y and Dong G (2022) Croes, R., M. A. Rivera, K. Semrad, V. Urban Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Breukeling P. van, et al. 2022. The Impacts Shapoval, and M. Van Niekerk. 2017. Dossier Koninkrijksrelaties. 2022a. and Development Order: A “Pressure- of Climate Change on Bonaire. IVM Strategic Tourism Master Plan 2017-2027. “Minimumloon en uitkeringen Bonaire Capacity-Potential” Logical Framework. Institute for Environmental Studies. https://bonaireisland.com/wp-content/ in 2025 28% hoger.” July 3, 2022. https:// Front. Environ. Sci. 10:935498. doi: 10.3389/ uploads/2022/07/strategic-tourism-plan. dossierkoninkrijksrelaties.nl/2022/07/03/ fenvs.2022.935498 BZK. 2021. Bestuursafspraak voor het pdf. minimumloon-en-uitkeringen-bonaire- Papiaments op Bonaire. Ministerie van in-2025-28-hoger/. MacRae, D.M. and K. De Meyer. 2020. Binnenlandse Zaken en Koninkrijksrelaties. DCNA. 2022. “New Research on Mangrove Dutch Caribbean Conservation Species h t t p : //w w w. e b l t . n l /w p - c o n t e n t / Restoration for Bonaire,” June 28, 2022. Dossier Koninkrijksrelaties. 2022b. “Op List. uploads/2021/03/bestuursafspraak- https: //dcnanature.org/mangrove- Bonaire is bouw grootste zonnepark van papiaments-op-bonaire.pdf. restoration-research. Caribisch Nederland begonnen.” December Mangrove Maniacs. 2022. Best 2.0+. 21, 2022. https://dossierkoninkrijksrelaties. https://mangrovemaniacs.org/best-2-0. CBS. 2014. “Toerisme Caribisch Nederland Debrot, A.O., R.J.H.G. Henkens, P.J.F.M. nl/2022/12/21/op-bonaire-is-bouw-grootste- 2012.” June 3, 2014. https://www.cbs.nl/ Verweij, eds. 2018. Staat van de natuur zonnepark-van-caribisch-nederland- NACO. 2020. Masterplan Update: Bonaire nl-nl/achtergrond/2014/23/toerisme- van Caribisch Nederland 2017: Een begonnen-2/. International Airport. Netherlands Airport caribisch-nederland-2012. eerste beoordeling van de staat (van Consultants. instandhouding), bedreigingen en DRO. 2022. Nieuwsbericht. Q3, Volume 1, CBS. 2015. “Incoming tourism contributed managementimplicaties van habitats 2022. Directie Ruimte en Ontwikkeling National Ombudsman. 2020. Het Maakt 16.4 percent to Bonaire’s economy in en soorten in Caribisch Nederland. Bonaire. Uit Waar Je Wieg Heeft Gestaan. 72 | | 73 74 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 75 https://www.nationaleombudsman.nl/ RCN. 2022. Stijging minimumloon en Slijkerman, D.M.E., R. Leon, P. de Vries, zoek.off icielebekendmakingen.nl/blg- system/f iles/rapport/Rapport%20Het%20 uitkeringen in Caribisch Nederland and E.I. Koelemij. 2013. Water quality 957934.pdf. maakt%20uit%20waar%20je%20wieg%20 vanaf 1 januari 2023. of the coastal zone of Bonaire: results heeft%20gestaan_0.pdf. f ield monitoring 2011-2013. Wageningen: Van Werven, G., C. J. Jepma, and W. https://www.rijksdienstcn.com/actueel/ IMARES. Bakker. 2010. Masterplan strategische OLB. 2010. Beleidsnota Cultuur Bonaire. nieuws/2022/november/10/stijging- ontwikkeling Bonaire 2010-2025, Dutch https://www.banboneirubek.com/sites/ minimumloon-en-uitkeringen-in- Steneck, R. S., S. N. Arnold, R. de León, Caribbean Biodiversity Database, retrieved default/f iles/beleidsnota-cultuur- caribisch-nederland-vanaf-1-januari-2023. and D. B. Rasher. 2015. Status and Trends f rom https://www.dcbd.nl/document/ bonaire-2010_0.pdf. of Reef Bonaire. University of Maine, masterplan-strategische-ontwikkeling- RESEMBID. 2023. Project Spotlight. School of Marine Science. doi:10.1017/ bonaire-2010-2025. OLB. 2019. Bestuursprogramma: Van ons https://resembid.org/project-spotlight-3. CBO9781107415324.004. allemaal, door ons allemaal en voor ons Voeding op school programma 2023. allemaal. http://eilandsraad.nl/r?object RCN 2018. Cultuur in Caribisch Nederland. Straatmeijer, J. 2018. Onderzoek Naar Over de Stichting. https://www. id=11007&type=org&disposition=inline. https://www.rijksdienstcn.com/onderwijs- een Ijkpunt Voor het Sociaal Minimum voedingopschool.org/over-de-stichting. cultuur-wetenschap/cultuur-en-media/ in Caribisch Nederland. Regioplan OLB. 2020. Natuurplan Bonaire cultuurhandreiking. Beleidsonderzoek. https://www.regioplan. Verweij, P., A. Cormont, J. Nel, B. de Rooij, 2020-2024. retrieved f rom https:// nl/project/onderzoek-naar-een-ijkpunt- L. Jones-Walters, D. Slijkerman, K. Soma, www.dcbd.nl/document/natuurplan- Rijksoverheid 2021. Voortgangsrapportage voor-het-sociaal-minimum-in-caribisch- et al. 2023. “A nature inclusive vision for bonaire-2020-2024. ijkpunt bestaanszekerheid Caribisch nederland/. Bonaire in 2050.” Wageningen University Nederland 2021. https://www.rijksoverheid. & Research Research Report no. 3023. OLB Bonaire. 2021a. Tourism Recovery nl/documenten/publicaties/2021/06/14/ Sundby, C. 2011. “The environmental BioNews 40, 4–4. https://research.wur. Plan. https://bonaireisland.com/wp- bijlage-derde-voortgangsrapportage- impact of the reverse osmosis desalination nl/en/publications/a-nature-inclusive- content/uploads/2022/07/tourism- ijkpunt-bestaanszekerheid-caribisch- plant on the immediately surrounding vision-for-bonaire-in-2050. recovery-plan-f inal.pdf. nederland-2021. water and coral reef ecosystem on Bonaire, Dutch Caribbean.” Journal of Waterschap Rijn en IJsel. 2023. Integrated OLB. 2021b. Voorbereidingsbesluit Roberts, M., N. Hanley, S. Williams, S., and Marine Science 19: 57–63. Water Management on Bonaire. End Verblijfsrecreatie en Woningbouw. https:// W. Cresswell. 2017. “Terrestrial degradation report. bonairegov.com/nieuwsoverzicht/artikel/ impacts on coral reef health: Evidence TCB. 2021. Tourism Recovery Plan. voorbereidingsbesluit-verblijfsrecreatie- f rom the Caribbean.” Ocean & Coastal https: //bonaireisland.com/wp-content/ WEB. 2023. Wastewater. https://www. en-woningbouw. Management 149, 52–68. uploads/2022/07/tourism-recovery- webbonaire.com/wastewater/?lang=en. plan-f inal.pdf. OLB. 2022. Bonairiaanse delegatie ROA CN. 2019. Beroepsonderwijs en WODC. Ministerie van Justitie en bezocht conferentie van Sea Trade Cruise arbeidsmarkt Caribisch Nederland, TCB, 2022a. Preliminary data exit survey. Veiligheid 2018. Evaluatie van de Wet Global in de VS. https://bonairegov.com/ December 2019. Raad Onderwijs Toelating en Uitzetting BES. Groningen. nieuwsoverzicht/artikel/bonairiaanse- Arbeidsmarkt Caribisch Nederland. TCB. 2022b. 2nd Quarter 2022 Tourism https://www.staten-generaal.nl/9370000/1/ delegatie-bezocht-conferentie-van-sea- https: //www.roacn.com/uploads/ Performance & Winter 2022/2023 j4nvgs5kjg27kof_ j9vvkfvj6b325az/ trade-cruise-global-in-de-vs. documents/beroepsonderwijs-en- Outlook. Bonaireisland.com.https: // vkvtcj4a22qh. arbeidsmarkt-caribisch-nederland-2019/ bonaireisland.com/2nd-quarter-2022- RCN. 2019. Minimumloon en uitkeringen Beroepsonderwijs-en-Arbeidsmarkt-2019. tourism-performance-winter-2022- Worldometer. 2023. CO2 emissions by stijgen vanaf 1 januari 2020. Rijksdienst pdf. 2023-outlook. country. https://www.worldometers.info/ Caribisch Nederland. https://www. co2-emissions/co2-emissions-by-country/. rijksdienstcn.com/actueel/nieuws/2019/ RWS. 2013. Maritime Emergency TCB. 2023. “Bonaire’s Tourism Recovered n ove m b e r/ 1 2 /m i n i m u m l o o n - e n - Response Plan for the Dutch Caribbean f rom the Pandemic.” Bonaire, January WTTC. 2022. Travel in Tourism in the uitkeringen-stijgen-vanaf-1-januari-2020. Rijkswaterstaat. Directorate General of 18, 2023. https://bonaireisland.com/ Caribbean: Prospects for growth. Public Works and Water Management- bonaires-tourism-recovered-f rom-the- https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/ RCN. 2021. Minimumloon en uitkeringen RWS. pandemic. Reports/2022/Travel-and-tourism-in- in Caribisch Nederland stijgen per 1 the-caribbean.pdf. januari 2022. Simal, F. 2013. Bat Conservation Program Tourism Planning and Research Associates. Islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao: 1997. Bonaire Tourism Strategic Plan, WWF. 2017. Caribbean: Lesser Antilles https://www.rijksdienstcn.com/actueel/ Strategic Plan 2014-2018. Final Report, May 1997. Islands.https://www.worldwildlife.org/ nieuws/2021/december/9/minimumloon- ecoregions/nt1416. en-uitkeringen-in-caribisch-nederland- Slijkerman D., M. van der Geest, and S. Van der Ende, M., R. van den Bergh, stijgen-per-1-januari-2022. Mücher. 2019. Nexus interventions for and R. Peeters. 2020. Loonruimte small tropical islands: case study Bonaire. minimumloon. CN: Eindrapport. https:// Wageningen University & Research. 74 | | 75 76 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 77 INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE Financial services direct contribu- $28 million https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/figures/ tion to GDP 2019 ($) detail/84769ENG Financial services direct contribu- 5.4% https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/figures/ APPENDICES tion to GDP 2019 (%) detail/84769ENG Travel & Tourism investment in % in 2019 T&T Government Expenditure (% of govt. budget) Public investment in productive infrastructure Foreign direct investment (FDI) APPENDIX A BONAIRE CARRYING CAPACITY FRAMEWORK - ECONOMIC INDICATORS Employment INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE Direct employment in travel & tourism (#) in 2019 Macro Real GDP per capita ($) 27,000 US dollars https://opendata.cbs.nl/stat- Direct employment in travel & line/#/CBS/en/dataset/85251ENG/ tourism (%) in 2019 table?ts=1658408261487 Total employment in travel & tour- Real GDP per room ($) ism (#) in 2019 Real GDP growth last 5 years (%) 18.7% (2015-2019) https://opendata.cbs.nl/statline/#/ Total employment in travel & tour- CBS/en/dataset/84789ENG/ ism (%) in 2019 table?ts=1658408412933 Real GDP growth last 10 years (%) 9.8% (2012-2019) Employees hotels and restaurants 1480 (2020); 1600 (2019) https://opendata.cbs.nl/stat- Poverty rate (% of households/ Not available (#) line/#/CBS/en/dataset/82519ENG/ pop living below national poverty table?ts=1658410409473 line) (Poverty line of SCR 4,673 per Bonairean employees in T&T (#) adult) Expatriate employees in T&T (#) Gini Coefficient (%) 39 https://opendata.cbs.nl/stat- in 2019 line/#/CBS/en/dataset/83552ENG/ Female participation in the work- 0.91 https://opendata.cbs.nl/stat- table?ts=1658409754607 force (ratio to men) line/#/CBS/en/dataset/83165ENG/ Tourism direct contribution to $56 million (Accommodation and https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/figures/ table?ts=1658411411897 GDP in 2019 ($) food serving) detail/84769ENG Unemployment rate (%) in 3.2 https://opendata.cbs. Tourism direct contribution to 10.9/% (56/516) https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/figures/ 2019 nl/statline/#/CBS/en/ GDP in 2019 (%) detail/84769ENG dataset/83165ENG/ Tourism total contribution to GDP table?ts=1658420304935 in 2019 ($) Rate of youth unemployment 7.5 https://opendata.cbs. Tourism total contribution to GDP (20-29 years old) 2019 (%) nl/statline/#/CBS/en/ in 2019 (%) dataset/83165ENG/ Travel & Tourism investment ($) table?ts=1658420304935 in 2019 Average wage ($) Includes $25,520 average; $17,070 https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/cijfers/ Construction industry direct con- $37 million https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/figures/ average of all 3 main sectors HORECA detail/82519NED tribution to GDP 2019 ($) detail/84769ENG (Government, private $ para- Construction industry direct con- statal) tribution to GDP 2019 (%) 7.2% https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/figures/ Average wage growth (%) be- 1.15%% https://opendata.cbs.nl/#/CBS/ detail/84769ENG tween 2015 and 2019 nl/dataset/82519NED/table 76 | | 77 78 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 79 INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE Tourism labor productivity Cruise passengers (#) in 2019 457,700 https://opendata.cbs. (tourism real GDP / aggregat- nl/statline/#/CBS/en/ ed hours in T&T labor) dataset/85007ENG/ Tourism labor productivity table?ts=1658424972880 growth Y0Y 2019-2019 Yacht arrivals in 2019 3,000 https://opendata.cbs. Visitors nl/statline/#/CBS/en/ Total international arrivals (#) 157,800 https://opendata.cbs. dataset/85015ENG/ in 2019 nl/statline/#/CBS/en/ table?ts=1658425522606 dataset/83104ENG/ table?ts=1658425192757 Other day visitors in 2019 None Total arrivals Dutch (Europe) 55,230 https://opendata.cbs. Hotel Performance non-residents (#) in 2019 nl/statline/#/CBS/en/ dataset/83191ENG/ table?ts=1658425343239 Average hotel occupancy rate 68% (2017) https://www.tourismbonaire. in 2019 com/includes/strategic-tour- 20 year CAGR in international 2000-2020 is 1.2%; 2000-2019 is https://www.tourismbonaire. ism-plan.pdf arrivals (%) 2000 - 2020 5.8% com/includes/strategic-tour- ism-plan.pdf Distribution of bed occupancy 20 year CAGR in Dutch by accommodation type non-residents arrivals (%) 2000 - 2020 Average daily rate Visitor exports ($) in 2019 $229 million (2016) https://www.tourismbonaire. com/includes/strategic-tour- Revenue per Available room ism-plan.pdf (RevPar) Stayover visitors in 2019 157,800 https://www.tourismbonaire. Visitor satisfaction com/includes/strategic-tour- Visitor satisfaction (survey See latest exit survey in drive TCB ism-plan.pdf data) % by visitor groups / by sites or motivations Average stayover visitor spend $220 per day for people staying https://www.tourismbonaire. in 2019 in hotels; $191 per day for peo- com/includes/strategic-tour- Likelihood to return to Bo- 69 (2017 data) https://www.tourismbonaire. ple staying in apartments; $98 ism-plan.pdf naire (%) com/includes/strategic-tour- per day for overnight visitors ism-plan.pdf staying with friends or family. Visitor sentiment of natural On average people from the sites % Netherlands spend $192 per day and $1,918 per trip. From North America $285 per day and Visitor main motivation to Sun and ecotourism 34.5%; https://www.tourismbonaire. $2,424 per trip (2017 data) visit diving 50.9%; windsurfing com/includes/strategic-tour- 7.4%; VFR 13%; business 10.2%; ism-plan.pdf Average length of stay Interna- 8.8 days (2017) https://www.tourismbonaire. culture 9% (2017 survey) tional arrival (# of days) in 2020 com/includes/strategic-tour- ism-plan.pdf Consumer Price Index for food 107.2 (Q4 2020) https://longreads.cbs.nl/ and non-alcoholic beverages ticn2021/bonaire/ Average length of stay Dutch Netherlands 10 days; North https://www.tourismbonaire. non-residents (# of days) in America 8. days; Others 11.4 com/includes/strategic-tour- Consumer Price Index for 96.9 (Q4, 2020) https://longreads.cbs.nl/ 2019 days (2017) ism-plan.pdf housing, water and energy ticn2021/bonaire/ 78 | | 79 80 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 81 APPENDIX A INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE BONAIRE CARRYING CAPACITY FRAMEWORK - SOCIO CULTURAL INDICATORS Population density (people/ 60 https://www.rijksoverheid. km2) nl/onderwerpen/carib- INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE ische-deel-van-het-kon- Population inkrijk/vraag-en-antwoord/ waaruit-bestaat-het-konink- Total population (#) 22573 https://opendata.cbs.nl/ rijk-der-nederlanden; https:// statline/#/CBS/nl/data- data.humdata.org/dataset/ set/84757NED/table?dl=6BB15 worldpop-population-den- Total population in 2025 (pro- 23,900 https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/ sity-for-bonaire-sint-eustati- jection) (#) custom/2020/41/popula- us-and-saba tion-forecast-caribbean-neth- Beach density (m/person) x erlands-2020-2050 Total population in 2030 (pro- 25,900 https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/ Visitor per resident ratio 7.85 https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/ jection) (#) custom/2020/41/popula- news/2021/49/more-visitors-to- tion-forecast-caribbean-neth- bonaire-in-third-quarter erlands-2020-2050 Housing Not really sure where to find Bonaire-born population (#) 7866 https://opendata.cbs.nl/ this or who to ask this statline/#/CBS/nl/data- Population aged 25 and over 16669 https://opendata.cbs.nl/ set/84712NED/table?dl=6BB17 (#) statline/#/CBS/nl/data- Bonaire-born population in x https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/ set/83698NED/table?dl=6BB16 2025 (projection) (#) background/2020/41/popula- tion-forecast-caribbean-neth- Households (#) - per district 20,915 https://worldbankgroup-my. erlands-2020-2050 and by bonaire / foreign born sharepoint.com.mcas.ms/:x:/r/ personal/sleeffers_world- Bonaire-born population in x https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/ bank_org/_layouts/15/Doc. 2030 (projection) (#) background/2020/41/popula- aspx?sourcedoc=%7B0CEB5 tion-forecast-caribbean-neth- 552-887E-4900-B3DC-20B6 erlands-2020-2050 50443CE4%7D&file=Buurtci- Foreign-born population (#) - 14707 https://opendata.cbs.nl/ jfers_bonaire_2018_2019_2020. including dutch born statline/#/CBS/nl/data- xlsx&action=default&mobilere- set/84757NED/table?dl=6BB15 direct=true Foreign-born population in x https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/ Households in social homes (%) 544 houses 2.60% 2025 (projection) (#) background/2020/41/popula- Average home price/rental price per m2 ($) - per district x tion-forecast-caribbean-neth- erlands-2020-2050 House prices/Gross Household x Foreign-born population in x https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/ Income 2030 (projection) (#) background/2020/41/popula- Average home price/rental 56% https://opendata.cbs.nl/ tion-forecast-caribbean-neth- price growth (%), last 5 years statline/#/CBS/nl/data- erlands-2020-2050 set/83396NED/table?dl=2997D Bonaire-born / Foreign-born 53% https://opendata.cbs.nl/ House price index 148.1 https://opendata.cbs.nl/ population ratio statline/#/CBS/nl/data- statline/#/CBS/nl/data- set/84757NED/table?dl=6BB15 set/83396NED/table?dl=2997D Bonaire-born / Foreign-born x Interest rate for new unsubsi- x population ratio in 2025 dised loans (%) Bonaire-born / Foreign-born x Loan/value ratio (LTV) (%) x population ratio in 2030 New loans (LTV) > 80% (%) x 80 | | 81 82 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 83 INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE Houses purchased transac- 182 https://opendata.cbs.nl/ Consult with primary care 74.2% (2017) https://opendata.cbs. tions (notarized, registered) statline/#/CBS/nl/data- physician during last 12 nl/statline/#/CBS/nl/ set/83396NED/table?dl=2997D months (% of population) dataset/82293NED/ Residential investment ($) x table?ts=1658742072953; Other Self-reported health x https://opendata.cbs. Number of dwellings x indicators nl/statline/#/CBS/nl/ Number of dwellings per x dataset/82291NED/ households table?ts=1658742006878 Percentage of dwellings that x Covid-19 deaths per capita 12 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ are primary/secondary/unoc- COVID-19_pandemic_in_Bo- cupied and other naire Percentage of main dwellings x Population vaccinated for 64.4% for BES https://news.google.com/covid19/ that are owner-occupied/rent- covid (%) map?hl=en-US&state=7&mid=%2Fm%- ed/free let and other 2F0rdr4&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen Health Received from Dr. Daniel van ap?hl=en-US&state=7&mid=%2Fm%- leerdam (OLB) 2F0rdr4&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen % of population with hypertension 47.10% Nota Volksgezondheid Bonaire Life expectancy at birth (years) 80.2 https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/ (Health Study 2017) news/2015/04/life-expectan- cy-in-the-caribbean-neth- % of population with overweight / 31% / 30,4% Nota Volksgezondheid Bonaire erlands-approximate- obesitas (Health Study 2017) ly-the-same-as-in-the-nether- % of population with daily con- 33% Nota Volksgezondheid Bonaire lands sumption fruit / vegetables (Health Study 2017) Maternal mortality ration (per % of population with diabetes 8.10% Nota Volksgezondheid Bonaire 100,000 live births) (Health Study 2017) Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 N/A Incidence STI’s N/A Department of public health is live births) currently gathering data Under-five mortality (per 1000 N/A HIV incidence 0,5% (of population) Nota Volksgezondheid Bonaire live births) (Health Study 2017) Mortality from non-communi- N/A Number of SDG indicators available cable diseases (% of all deaths) Education Hospital beds/1,000 residents x https://www3.paho.org/sa- Literacy rate by population - age x lud-en-las-americas-2012/ group - gender (%) index.php?option=com_ docman&view=down- School enrollment (primary, sec- prim: 1953, sec: 1284 https://opendata.cbs.nl/stat- load&alias=139-nether- ondary) (#) line/#/CBS/nl/dataset/84732NED/ lands-antilles-139&category_ table?dl=6BB18 slug=hia-2012-country-chap- Average years of schooling x ters-22&Itemid=231&lang=en Physicians/1,000 pop x Graduates from higher education voc: 725 https://opendata.cbs.nl/stat- (vocational training, university) line/#/CBS/nl/dataset/84732NED/ TB incidence (per 1000 popu- N/A table?dl=6BB18 lation) Consult with dentist during 46.4% (2017 https://opendata.cbs.nl/stat- last 12 months (% of popula- line/#/CBS/nl/dataset/82293NED/ tion) table?ts=1658742072953; 82 | | 83 84 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 85 INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE APPENDIX A BONAIRE CARRYING CAPACITY FRAMEWORK - PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE INDICATORS Safety & Security Reported police crimes per 100,000 violence (1%), vandalism (1.5%), theft https://opendata.cbs.nl/stat- INDICATORS (unit), year BASELINE SOURCE people by type (8.4%), other (3.2) line/#/CBS/nl/dataset/82559NED/ Tourism Businesses https://www.tourismbonaire. table?dl=6A398 com/ Reported nuisance in neighbor- Physical degradation (38.5%), Social https://opendata.cbs.nl/stat- Tour operators (# of licenses) hood (% says it happens) nuisance (28%), Traffic nuisance line/#/CBS/nl/dataset/82557NED/ (53.5), Nuisance from catering table?dl=6BB19 Restaurants (# of licensed es- establishments (6%), Nuisance from tablishments) neighbors (6.3%) Accommodations (# of estab- 125 TCB lishments) Reported car accidents per capita 673 collisions (154 with injury, 2 https://bonaire.nu/2022/03/16/ dead)) in 2021. forse-daling-verkeersongeluk- Hotels (# per 100 people) ken-op-bonaire/#:~:text=In%20 Hotel rooms or beds (#) 7186 TCB 2021%20zijn%20er%20op,in%20 totaal%2C%20vielen%20er%20ge- Breakdown of different accom- See Excel file in drive TCB wonden. modation types Corruption Perceptions Index x 20-year Hotel rooms/beds we have a few years but not for Quality of life of residents growth YOY 2000-2019 all years Happiness Index 7.7/10 for age 11-18, 8.1/10 in general https://opendata.cbs.nl/stat- Rooms in the pipeline (#) 715 (as per 2021) TCB line/#/CBS/nl/dataset/82866NED/ table?ts=1658741822872 Hotels certified sustainable (#) Satisfaction Index 8.0/10 in general https://opendata.cbs.nl/stat- Land Use Received from Roland Brui- line/#/CBS/nl/dataset/82866NED/ jnesteijn (OLB) table?ts=1658741822872 Beach zoning - depth from the Any resident survey data Our own survey ;) as well 2017 coastline in meters survey that was part of tourism Urban/built area (km2 & % of 35 km2 12% educated guess, based on ROB strategy total) map Noise pollution x Rural area (km2 & % of total) 70% rest. Includes Salt pans Cultural Heritage UNESCO World Heritage Sites - 0 Terrestrial area protected (%), 17% Washington Slagbaai? What Cultural (#) 2020 about Saltpans? Designated Historic or Cultural 11 https://infobonaire.com/about-bo- Natural/undeveloped area 30km2 10% Bolivia Sites (#) naire/history/bonaires-historic-mon- (km2 & % of total) uments/; https://www.bonairepros. Real Estate Sunbelt/ Harbourtown com/blog/dive-into-bonaires-cul- ture-and-history-museums/ Number of commercial prop- Designated Historic or Cultural x erties Sites - degraded 20-year properties growth YOY (2000-2020) Oral & Intangible Heritage Expres- x sions Number of permits/ properties in the pipeline (#)/value Share of residents speaking Papia- 87.10% mentu (%) Transportation Tourism businesses/accommoda- 3 (#) Private cars (#) OLB tions utilizing traditional architec- ture (%) 84 | | 85 86 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 87 INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE APPENDIX A BONAIRE CARRYING CAPACITY FRAMEWORK - ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS Taxis (#) OLB INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE Rental cars (#) Terrestrial ecosystems STINAPA and OLB Buses (#) / charter companies Terrestrial area protected (%), 17% STINAPA website 2020 Vehicle density per km2 Total known species 130 endemische soorten Staat van de natuur van Carib- Road density (km of road/100 OLB - verhard en onverhard isch Nederland 2017 (Bijlage km2) 1. Soorten met specifieke beleidsrelevantie in Caribisch Ground transport efficiency Nederland) (score 0-7) Endangered or threatened 134 internationaal bedreigde Staat van de natuur van Carib- Congestion - average time species (% of total) soorten isch Nederland 2017 (Bijlage needed to get from point X to 1. Soorten met specifieke point Y beleidsrelevantie in Caribisch Nederland) Number of boats or boat seats gunther.flanegin@bonairegov. Tree coverage (% total terrestri- com al area) Cruise dockings (#) gunther.flanegin@bonairegov. Forest cover (% change) 19.262 ha (in reality strongly de- Staat van de natuur van Carib- com graded so total average around isch Nederland 2017 16.108 ha) Cruise ship density (ships/pas- # cruise dockings/457,700 = gunther.flanegin@bonairegov. Flora species (#) 387 vascular species Landscape ecological veg- sengers) 2019 com / TCB etation map of the island of Bonaire (Southern Caribbean) Yachts (#) 400 (2021) gunther.flanegin@bonairegov. Ramsar sites (#) 4 https://rsis.ramsar.org/ris- com search/bonaire?pagetab=1 UNESCO World Heritage Sites - 1 https://whc.unesco.org/en/ten- # of ports/jetties/docks gunther.flanegin@bonairegov. Natural (#) tativelists/5627/#:~:text=The%20 com Bonaire%20Marine%20 Park%20consists,in%20the%20 Capacity of ports/ jetties/docks gunther.flanegin@bonairegov. entire%20Caribbean%20Sea. com Environmental Performance Not available for Bonaire Index Quality of port infrastructure gunther.flanegin@bonairegov. (score 0 of 7) com Number of flamingos 2855 https://longreads.cbs.nl/ ticn2021/bonaire/ Available seat km international Marine ecosystems (millions) Ocean Health Index (ranking 12 https://oceanhealthindex.org/ out of 220 countries) regions/bonaire/ Aircraft departures/100 people https://opendata.cbs.nl/ Ocean acidification No baseline 129,680 statline/#/CBS/nl/data- Sewage (N15 ratio) N/A N/A set/82332NED/table?dl=6BB1A Marine protected area (% of 2700 hectares https://stinapabonaire.org/ Airport density (#/million pop) 1 airport marine territory) wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ BNMP-management- plan-part2.pdf Operating airlines (#) 7 Average benthic cover (hard Around 20% (used to be Staat van de natuur van Carib- coral in %) around 60% in 1970s) isch Nederland (figure 2.9.3) Coral bleaching or % dead coral 86 | | 87 88 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 89 INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE INDICATORS BASELINE SOURCE Mangrove coverage? Number of Hotels & Self-Ca- 102 hotels & apartments WEB Information Total fish biomass (grams/m²) 2760 (grams/100m2) Staat van de natuur van Carib- tering Connected to Sewage 62 restaurants [2021] isch Nederland (table 2.9.1 & Treatment figure 2.9.2) Bacteriological level of sur- not available Fish stock status (% of catch) face water (total or fecal coli- forms/100ml) at critical loca- Sea turtle nests 110 https://longreads.cbs.nl/ tions (run offs, outlets, villages) ticn2021/bonaire/ Bacteriological level of sewage not available Marine litter items (plastics) 15,650 https://longreads.cbs.nl/ system effluent (hotels, resorts, ticn2021/bonaire/ villages) Number of species of fish 470 https://stinapabonaire.org/ Water Received from WEB wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ BNMP-management- Water Stress This is not relevant. The water plan-part2.pdf source is the ocean Green turtle population (west 550 (in 2018) Sea Turtle Conservation Bo- Water installed capacity (PRO- 7200 m3/day coast) naire DUCED) million m3 Water production (m3) million 1.95 (2020), 2.12 (2021) https://longreads.cbs.nl/ Green turtle population (Lac 350 (in 2018) Sea Turtle Conservation Bo- ticn2021/bonaire/ Bay) naire Hawksbill turtle population 70 (in 2018) Sea Turtle Conservation Bo- Annual water use intensity per 150 liter per capita per day Estimation WEB 2021 (west coast) naire capita (m3) (=0.15 m3 per capita per day) Air pollution Water consumption per guest 500 liter per guest night Estimation WEB 2021 night (liters) CO2 emmision (metric tons/ Not available for Bonaire capita) Water Value ($/l) 4.90 $/m3 average in 2022 https://www.webbonaire.com/ wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ CO2 emmision (metric tons/ Not available for Bonaire WEB-NL-Drinkwater- occupied room) tarieven-per-1-januari-2022.pdf Particulate matter concentra- Not available for Bonaire Water connected premises or 100% tion (micrograms/m3) pop w/ potable water access Solid waste disposal Selibon Shanelca Martha/Rud- (%) sel Leito Landfill capacity (m3) & approx 75 - 80% (This is just an average. Selibon NV Energy Received from WEB % reached The exact percentage or m3 is Energy installed capacity (MW) (Firm & Renewable capacity) 26.25 MW diesel + 11.31 MW not available yet. We are work- 37.56 MW reneawable ing on it.) Electrcity production (x 1,000 121.2 million in 2020 (130.6 mil- https://longreads.cbs.nl/ Annual waste produced (tons) 27885 ton (in 2021) Selibon NV KWH) lion in 2021) ticn2021/bonaire/ Waste generated per capita Figure not available yet per day (kg) Annual energy consumption avg 2940 kWh per connection WEB Information Daily visitor waste (weight or Figure not available yet Selibon NV per capita (kWh) volume per visitor or % of total Energy consumption per guest Not available daily waste weight or volume) night (kWh) Waste recycled (%) 5% (in 2021) Selibon NV Energy value ($/?) 0.50 $/kWh average (as of aug https://www.webbonaire.com/ Organic waste composted (%) 0% (in 2021) 1st 2022) wp-content/uploads/2022/06/ Sewage treatment Received from WEB WEB-NL-Elektriciteit- starieven-per-1-juli-2022.pdf Wastewater treatment plant ca- 1400 M3/day WEB Information pacity (m3) & approx % reached) Electricity connections (#) 9483(households) 2170 (other) https://longreads.cbs.nl/ Untreated wastewater dis- 85% [2021] WEB Information (household/other) [2020] - 10470 (households) ticn2021/bonaire/ charged (%) 1716 (other) [2022] Households connected to sew- 8.2% [2021] WEB Information Renewable electricity share (%) 21% (2020) - 22% (2021) https://longreads.cbs.nl/ age systems (%) ticn2021/bonaire/ 88 | | 89 90 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 91 APPENDIX C The average score of the general statements by Place of Birth General Bonaire born Netherlands Dutch Rest of the Average statements Average score born Caribbean world weighted Average score born Average Average score score score Bonaire is a APPENDIX B The survey also collected important demographic safe and livable 4.21 4.09 4.10 4.18 4.23 data, including age, sex, neighborhood, country of place birth, and nationality. Demographic information for residents Resident sentiment survey methodological approach related to education and the primary language Development on Bonaire is 3.72 3.66 3.89 3.72 3.81 spoken at home was also asked. adapting to Since the focus of the Resident Sentiment Survey was meet the social specifically to capture the dynamics of the resident The questionnaire included Likert items to inform needs of the resident tourism and urban perception and sentiment. residents population on Bonaire, the population attributes that were monitored as strata included gender, country Some questions asked respondents to rate how strongly There are too of birth, and region of domicile. Throughout the they agree or disagree with general statements many tourists 3.08 3.60 3.11 3.61 3.36 about life on Bonaire. In addition, the survey asked on island collection period, the proportion of each stratum was compared to the population registered by Statistics respondents to rate how important and how well Bonaire is doing on cultural, environmental, physical, In general, Netherlands, and the sample quota of surveyors was 3.26 2.92 3.35 3.25 3.26 the positive adjusted to stimulate a response in lagging groups. economic, and tourism dimensions. impacts of tourism Six surveyors undertook the face-to-face collection Although data validation methods were designed on Bonaire outweigh with proficiency in all four languages in which the into the survey form to mitigate against data entry the negative survey was available and administered it at various errors post-collection, further data-cleaning steps impacts geographically strategic and diverse locations on were taken to ensure the validity of the responses. Tourism Incomplete submissions were removed, and the development 3.17 2.76 3.02 3.23 3.14 Bonaire. Before this, all surveyors received a briefing encourages and a training manual covering sampling techniques, IP addresses of the online responses were filtered, more IT support, and familiarity with the survey questions limiting the submissions to a maximum of three beautification of the and best practices. per IP address. The first filter reduced the sample by 60 observations, while the second filter dropped A portion of During the survey deployment period, minor another five observations. my income 3.03 2.78 2.85 3.21 3.07 is directly adjustments were made to the questionnaire that or indirectly was deemed inconsequential to the quality of the In all, 777 valid responses were collected, significantly linked to response. Translation errors were corrected in the surpassing the initial sample target of 420 responses, the tourism industry on Dutch version of the survey, and some statements with good representation according to the stratification Bonaire that had been formulated in an overly complex way strategy. Particular care was taken to limit statistical were simplified. inference to the analysis where representativeness There are sufficient 2.77 3.15 2.89 3.13 3.06 could reasonably be assumed. decent jobs The survey took approximately 12 minutes to complete available for and was filled out by 842 residents of Bonaire ages 15 to To further ensure representativeness, the sample the residents 80+ over an approximately 4-week period. The survey was weighted according to the country of birth The cost of instrument asked one qualifying question about the distribution of the Bonaire population, as reported living on 1.66 1.62 1.65 1.74 1.68 person’s resident status to exclude respondents who by Statistics Netherlands. The sampling weights take Bonaire is acceptable had been living for less than six months on Bonaire. care of the varying probabilities of selection across different strata. Note: 1= Strongly disagree; 2 = Disagree; 3= Neutral; 4= Agree; 5= Strongly agree 90 | | 91 92 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 93 APPENDIX C APPENDIX C Average score of how important the action is by Place of Birth How well is Bonaire doing? Genera Bonaire born Netherlands Dutch Rest of the Average Genera Bonaire born Netherlands Dutch Rest of the Average statements Average score born Caribbean born world weighted statements Average score born Caribbean born world weighted Average Average score Average score score Average Average score Average score score score score Bonaire is a safe Ensuring greater and livable place 4.21 4.09 4.10 4.18 4.23 safety and less 3.33 / 5 2.97 / 5 3.39 / 5 3.21 / 5 3.30 / 5 for residents crime Development Protecting on Bonaire is Bonaire’s natural adapting to meet areas and 3.72 3.66 3.89 3.72 3.81 biodiversity (land 3.44 / 5 2.78 / 5 3.28 / 5 3.04 / 5 3.26 / 5 the social needs of the residents and marine) Preserving There are too Bonaire’s culture and heritage 2.97 / 5 2.89 / 5 3.03 / 5 3.04 / 5 3.05 / 5 many tourists on 3.08 3.60 3.11 3.61 3.36 island (e.g., language) improve public In general, the infrastructure 3.00 / 5 2.57 / 5 2.94 / 5 2.98 / 5 2.96 / 5 positive impacts of (such as utilities, tourism on Bonaire 3.26 2.92 3.35 3.25 3.26 waste collection, outweigh the street lighting) negative impacts Ensuring there is a strong sense of 2.7 / 5 2.65 / 5 2.75 / 5 2.78 / 5 2.77 / 5 Tourism community among development residents encourages more beautification of Managing the infrastructure 3.17 2.76 3.02 3.23 3.14 Bonaire’s growing 2.80 / 5 2.29 / 5 2.65 / 5 2.68 / 5 2.68 / 5 and public spaces population on Bonaire (e.g., nicer beaches and Minimizing roads) potential overcrowding 2.76 / 5 2.19 / 5 2.71 / 5 2.53 / 5 2.61 / 5 A portion of my from tourism income is directly or indirectly linked Greater 3.03 2.78 2.85 3.21 3.07 involvement and to the tourism 2.38 / 5 2.12 / 5 2.38 / 5 2.56 / 5 2.44 / 5 industry on role by residents Bonaire in deciding what happens on the island There are sufficient decent Creating jobs that jobs available for 2.77 3.15 2.89 3.13 3.06 are more stable 2.46 / 5 2.20 / 5 2.4 / 5 2.44 / 5 2.44 / 5 the residents and provide a higher source of income There are too many citizens on 3.19 2.92 2.78 3.09 3.04 Improve road island infrastructure 2.28 / 5 1.89 / 5 2.08 / 5 2.19 / 5 2.21 / 5 The cost of living Ensuring the on Bonaire is 1.66 1.62 1.65 1.74 1.68 availability of 2.25 / 5 1.77 / 5 1.90 / 5 2.17 / 5 2.09 / 5 acceptable affordable and decent homes for residents Note: 1= Strongly disagree; 2 = Disagree; 3= Neutral; 4= Agree; 5= Strongly agree Note: 1= Very Poor; 2 = Poor; 3 = Satisfactory; 4= Good; 5= Very good 92 | | 93 94 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 95 APPENDIX D Scenario-building methodological approach The model starts by investigating the elasticity relationship between tourism arrivals and Considering the goal of the scenarios was to population growth for the abovementioned time measure the impact of growth and development period and uses this information to measure on Bonaire, the relative responsiveness of a the relationship between tourism arrival’s change in one variable (call it B) to a change growth projections and their relationship to in another variable (call it A) was investigated. population growth. Then the relationship As such, the scenarios were built using the between population growth and household elasticity method. and registered vehicle growth was calculated. Furthermore, the elasticity between tourism The elasticity method measures one variable’s arrivals and the number of workers in the change in or responsiveness to changes in tourism industry was also calculated. another. The goal of the scenarios was to demonstrate how one variable will change Finally, the impact of tourism arrivals was as a reaction to tourism growth on Bonaire. calculated as a result of new rooms (new In addition, to measure the responsiveness of developments) and its impact on labor one variable to changes in another variable developments and the composition of Bonaire over time, the elasticity was calculated over and Foreign born. This impact was further the time period 2011 -2021. calculated by economic indicators such as GDP per capita, GDP per room, and labor productivity. Additionally, environmental factors such as waste and energy production as a result of growth in tourism and population were also projected. Excluding the year 2020 - as this is considered a Covid-year. PICTURE BY: Karenza Rannou Pictures Bonaire’s Media Hub 94 | | 95 96 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 97 APPENDIX E stakeholder onhold, or proposed Strategic Existing, No. Project Name Project Description Objective Name of related Possible risks Implementation considerations programs 1.1 Sustainable Development overarching plan that sets and projects on OLB On Bonaire Master Human and Relaunch the masterplan Master Plan (SDM) forth island goals, objectives, growth development hold Plan 2030 financial resources development process, revisit Definition of an policies, and investments needed critical for the local are needed for the initial findings, and re-engage for community growth and community. plan’s successful with stakeholders considering the development over the next 10-20 implementation. changing environment. Consider years. a more extended timeframe than One vision and roadmap aligning ten years with a mid-term revision all island stakeholders, plans consideration. Consider the adoption of the Wageningen University Nature Inclusive Model study. Align with the Nature and Environment Policy Plan implementation (MNBP) and the Strategic Tourism Master Plan (STMP). 1.2 Integral long-term vision Definition of an overarching uses and the linkages OLB/ On Spatial Public opinion Finish the SDM with all spatial on spatial planning spatial urban planning vision between them to RVO/ hold Development and political planning studies incorporated. and strategy based on analysis of balance demands for BZK, Plan Bonaire choices. Follow up on recommendations of nature, growth, environment, and development with LenW (ROB) earlier studies on nature conservation economics. the need to protect and the environment and align with Guidance on a more rational the environment and the (MNBP). Include new permits territorial organization of land to achieve social and requirements for recreational economic objectives. accommodations. 1.3 Strategic Tourism Master Definition of a tourism Update the strategic TCB/ Existing Strategic Tourism Limited capacity Alignment with the SDM. Thorough Plan (STMP) update development vision and roadmap tourism vision to OLB/ Master Plan 2017- to implement and revision and update of the that will guide strategic decisions reflect current trends BONHATA 2027 & Tourism enforce the plan. hotel development permits and in product development and its and dynamics. Recovery Plan enforcement to be fully aligned with physical infrastructure needs, (post-covid) the determined strategic goal of transportation needs, business the STMP. Include considerations development needs, and impact of hotel development to population on management, environmental, growth and infrastructure capacity cultural, and socioeconomic needs. clude hotel inventory factors. monitoring plan. 1.4 Project Implementation Creation of an office responsible To professionally OLB Existing Het Project Uitvoeringsbureau Expand the program beyond Office for the planning and execution execute the crucial (PUB) execution level to include strategic of various strategic and complex large programs and Limited capacity planning, including a Master Plan projects without implementation office. Increase the projects and programs. to manage disrupting the daily scope beyond pre-selected projects work of the different programs after to include identified crucial SDM government agencies PUB implements projects (current projects: Multi- involved and achieving projects. year Road program, the Waste visible results for the Management program, and the inhabitants of Bonaire. Nature and Environment Policy Plan implementation (NMBP)). 96 | | 97 98 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 99 APPENDIX E stakeholder onhold, or proposed Strategic Existing, No. Project Name Project Description Objective Name of related Possible risks Implementation considerations programs 1.5 Neighborhood Councils Creation of a governmental or Improve community OLB Proposed Meeting the Definition of council structures Associations non-governmental body with participation human and appropriate to the island context. the objective to promote citizen in government financial resources Review existing structures such as participation in local government decision-making and needed for the centro de barrios. decisions. direct involvement plan’s successful in managing implementation. neighborhood projects and facilities. 2 Shortage of affordable housing supply Laws and regulations 2.1 Land-value and property Definition of an overarching uses and the linkages OLB/ On Spatial Public opinion Finish the SDM with all spatial tax reform spatial urban planning vision between them to RVO/ hold Development and political planning studies incorporated. and strategy based on analysis of balance demands for BZK, Plan Bonaire choices. Follow up on recommendations of nature, growth, environment, and development with LenW (ROB) earlier studies on nature conservation economics. the need to protect and the environment and align with Guidance on a more rational the environment and the (MNBP). Include new permits territorial organization of land to achieve social and requirements for recreational economic objectives. accommodations. 2.2 Rental market Revision of the rent regulation Control house OLB/Min- Existing Caribbean Scarcity in the Define rental controls or rent istry of regulation system of laws that aim to prices and increase Netherlands housing market stabilization, limiting the amount a Housing, ensure housing affordability and the accessibility of Spatial Rental Market by discouraging landlord can charge. Eviction controls tenancies on the rental market affordable housing for Planning Measures Act private and codified standards by which a and the for dwellings. residents. Environ- for Bonaire / investment. landlord may terminate a tenancy. ment Huurcommissie Obligations for the landlord or tenant Bonaire regarding adequate maintenance of the property. A system of oversight and enforcement by an independent regulator and ombudsman. 2.3 Housing permits policy Definition of housing Control house OLB Proposed Limited capacity Study the approach from the purchasing and building permits prices and increase to implement and Netherlands at the Waddeneilanden. requirements to favor residents. the accessibility of enforce policies Clear definition of what a Bonarian- affordable housing for and regulations. resident is. An easily accessible residents. mechanism for residents to obtain housing permits. 98 | | 99 100 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 101 APPENDIX E stakeholder onhold, or proposed Strategic Existing, No. Project Name Project Description Objective Name of related Possible risks Implementation considerations programs 2.4 Tourism rental Property policy reform, clear Control house OLB On hold Spatial Effective Finish the approval process of the licenses community guidelines, tourism prices and increase Development enforcement, ROB and convert it to enforcement rental licenses, awareness the accessibility of Plan Bonaire capacity to plans aligned with SDM and STMP. campaigns, surveillance, and affordable housing for (ROB) manage the Consider community-based tourism enforcement. residents. licensing office. special permits. Launch an awareness Introduced campaign and create clear rules for inequalities in obtaining a permit and a compliance tourism income grace period. Work directly with and reduction of Airbnb to identify rentals that are not the trickle-down compliant and impose heavy fines. effect. 2.5 Social housing Expansion of social affordable Meet the demand Fun- On Spatial Use of social Alignment with ROB and SDM. dashon projects housing development. for increasing social Cas Bo- hold Development housing areas for Efficient design with quality materials housing needs. nairiano Plan Bonaire other purposes. The to help reduce energy needs and (FCB) (ROB) increased stigma secure home safety. Combine with of social housing. other social-cultural programs to Increasing health enhance community cohesion and a and safety issues if way out of poverty. poor construction materials and designs are used as well as tenants’ ability to properly maintain the property. 2.6 Mortgage Expansion of the national Increase accessibility Home Existing Bonaire Increase in Review the success of the current Ownership guarantees mortgage guarantee loans for residents to buy a Guarantee Mortgage home ownership pilot program, adjust it as needed, program in Bonaire.. home. Foundation Guarantee defaults. and scale it. Ensure interest rates (Waarborg- (Hypotheek remain affordable and accessible for fonds Eigen Woningen) Garantie Bonaire, residents. HGB) 3 Narrow economic benefit distribution Laws and regulations 3.1 Work visa for foreign Review the foreign employment Increase the RCN/ Proposed Foreign National Decrease in the Revisiting the foreign worker permits nationals act which exempts some foreign opportunities for local OLB employment Act availability of qual- exemptions by nationality and nationals from requiring work workers to access ified workforce. increasing requirements. Align with Decrease in the permits. competitive job the SDM and STMP vision. competitiveness placement. of tourism services and other indus- tries. 100 | | 101 102 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 103 APPENDIX E stakeholder onhold, or proposed Strategic Existing, No. Project Name Project Description Objective Name of related Possible risks Implementation considerations programs 3.2 Work visa for foreign Review the foreign employment Increase the RCN/ Proposed Foreign National Decrease in Revisiting the foreign worker permits nationals act which exempts some foreign opportunities for local OLB employment Act the availability exemptions by nationality and nationals from requiring work workers to access of qualified increasing requirements. Align with permits. competitive job workforce. the SDM and STMP vision. placement. Decrease in the competitiveness of tourism services and other industries. 3.3 Minimum wage Improvement in the minimum Decrease poverty and RCN/ Ministry Existing A decrease in Continue and expand simultaneously increase wage to match inflation. increase well-being OLB/ Minimum wage people living on with an increase in educational and self-support. act social welfare; opportunities and an expansion of the a decrease qualified local workforce. in business profitability resulting in lower investments in productive industries. Education 3.4 Tourism Scaling of the Bonaire Tourism Improve recruitment TCB/ Existing The Bonarian Students might Develop partnerships with local Scholarships Scholarship program to help of qualified locals, GGF Tourism not return after tourism businesses to provide fund individual professional increase salary Scholarship graduation. competitive jobs for returning development courses and full- potential of local youth, Program, Free students. Expand the program to time academic courses in all stimulate retention training offered support more students in the coming areas of hospitality and tourism and professional by OLB program, years. management. growth in the tourism Tourism sector, and improve Academy Plan the quality of tourism services provided by the local workforce. Skills development 3.5 Internship Creation of a formal internship Improve skills and OLB/ Proposed Financial Promote equal exchanges; for every exchange program exchange program that brings qualifications of local TCB/ resources are incoming intern, one local intern students from abroad and students, increase BONHATA/ needed for the should go abroad. Pair foreign interns ROA sends out local students to work employability and plan’s successful with local interns in the same job CN overseas. earning potential, and implementation. position, promoting cultural and promote innovation, Students might knowledge exchanges. creativity, and cultural not return after exchange. graduation. 102 | | 103 104 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 105 APPENDIX E stakeholder onhold, or proposed Strategic Existing, No. Project Name Project Description Objective Name of related Possible risks Implementation considerations programs 3.6 Adult vocational Expansion of local island Improve skills and FORMA/ Existing FORMA/ROA CN/ Resources to Skills development aligned with training and job vocational training and qualifications of ROA Plenchi di Trabou fund program destination needs and development placement apprenticeship places. at-risk local adults, CN/ expansion vision laid out by the SDM. increase salary and plenchi di and sufficient employability, and trabou employers willing decrease the number to mentor an of people living below apprentice. the social minimum benchmark. Business development 3.7 Business incubator and Establishment of an organization Stimulate the local OLB/ Existing BusinesSpark Human and Promote business development innovation center that helps local entrepreneurs economy while Future Playa financial resources aligned with the destination needs develop their businesses by diversifying products Islands are needed for the and product development vision laid providing a range of services, and increasing local plan’s successful out in the SDM and STMP. including management training, innovation. implementation. office space, and venture capital financing. 4 Loss of cultural identity and cohesion Public Investment 4.1 Investment in cultural Development of a robust cultural Increase awareness OLB/ Existing National Culture Human and Support street art festivals, expressions and creative heritage and creative arts agenda of arts and history. OCW/ Funds / Culture financial resources neighborhood festivals, monthly arts and funding sources. Promote community Hofi coaches are needed for the activities, concerts, theater, dance, Kultural/ cohesion and cultural The Foun- plan’s successful storytelling, food fairs, and arts & dation for pride. Art and implementation. crafts fairs. Create a monthly themed Culture of cultural program, including one Bonaire/ significant event. Provide scholarships SKAL to identified young talent to further their craft. Education 4.2 Bonaire cultural Development a robust Bonaire Increase knowledge RCN/ Existing Human and In-depth research on the history education cultural heritage school of Bonaire’s cultural OCW / financial resources of Bonaire to develop a school curriculum (elementary and heritage and promote LKCA / are needed for the curriculum. Include local history secondary) and compulsory cultural pride. OLB plan’s successful curriculum at all levels of the teacher training program. implementation. educational system. 4.3 Papiamentu Development of free Papiamentu Increase awareness of RCN/ Proposed Human and fi- Conduct awareness campaigns and classes classes for all ages and levels for arts and history. Pro- OLB nancial resources offer free courses year-round. residents. mote community cohe- are needed for the sion and cultural pride. plan’s successful implementation. 104 | | 105 106 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 107 APPENDIX E stakeholder onhold, or proposed Strategic Existing, No. Project Name Project Description Objective Name of related Possible risks Implementation considerations programs Business development 4.4 Cultural Tourism products Development of cultural, Increase the quality of OLB/ Proposed Human and Research Bonaire’s cultural assets, and services heritage, and community-based the tourism experience SKAL/ financial resources history, and living cultural expressions tourism products; itineraries, and raise awareness TCB/ are needed for the to develop itineraries. Investment interpretations of tourism assets of the local cultural RCN/ plan’s successful in historical site maintenance and and sites; and associates goods heritage and local OCW implementation. interpretation. Work with Business and services. cultural pride. Spark Playa to promote cultural goods and services in hotels and restaurants. Alignment with the STMP vision. Skills development 4.5 Tour guide cultural Development of a tour guide Increase the quality of OLB/ Proposed Human and Develop tour guide training cultural training cultural tourism training the tourism experience TCB/ financial resources curriculum in alignment with the program. and raise awareness FORMA/ are needed for the cultural tourism product portfolio. of the local cultural RCN/ plan’s successful heritage. OCW implementation. 4.6 Traditional Promotion of traditional Stimulate traditional OLB/ Proposed Healthy Human and Conduct awareness campaigns to Kunuku gardens kunuku backyard vegetable local food production, LVV/ Caribbean financial resources offer tools, resources, and training patch gardening, recreational healthy eating and LNV Coalition are needed for the on kunuku gardening. Promote community gardening, and community cohesion plan’s successful community-level activities, backyard gastronomic experiences implementation. cooking, recipe exchanges, and cooking classes. 5 Limited productive infrastructure Public Investment 5.1 Multi-year The planning, funding, and Improve road safety OLB Existing Meerjarenpro- Human and Continue and expand. Road program realization of the renovation of and the quality of life gramma Wegen financial resources roads. of residents. Bonaire (MJOP) are needed for the plan’s successful implementation. 5.2 Public transportation The planning, funding, Reduce residents’ OLB/ Proposed Human and Public transportation planning in-line program and realization of a public transportation costs, I&W financial resources with the ROB and SDM. transportation system. traffic congestion, are needed for the carbon footprint, and plan’s successful solid waste (i.e., tires, implementation. oil, old cars, etc.). 106 | | 107 108 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 109 APPENDIX E stakeholder onhold, or proposed Strategic Existing, No. Project Name Project Description Objective Name of related Possible risks Implementation considerations programs 5.3 Wastewater treatment Investment in increasing the Increase the number OLB/ Existing Sewage Ability to cover Sewage planning should be aligned plant expansion sewage treatment plant’s of household WEB expansion and the salient need with ROB, SDM, and STMP. capacity and expanding the connections to the connections of a growing household connections network. sewage system and (NMBP) population and reduce the risk of exponential new contaminating the construction rate. environment with harmful pathogens. 5.4 Wastewater vision and Development of a wastewater Effectively manage Stinapa/ Existing Water Circles Financial Alignment with the ROB, SDM, and management vision and five pilots for wastewater to avoid WWF/ Bonaire (NMBP) resources are STMP. decentralized wastewater polluting the natural OLB/ needed for the treatment. ecosystems that cause WEB plan’s successful human health issues implementation. and environmental degradation. 5.5 Sustainable waste Investment projects to Effectively manage OLB/ Existing Afvalbeheer op Human and Data collection, long-term vision, and management professionalize waste solid waste to avoid Selibon/ Maat (AoM) financial resources restart of AoM with solid program management, reduce waste polluting the natural Ministry are needed for the management. Create an awareness generation, increase recycling, ecosystems that cause I&W plan’s successful campaign with clear guidelines to and make it sustainable. human health issues implementation. encourage residents to reduce, reuse and environmental Limited capacity and recycle solid waste. degradation. to implement and enforce policies and regulations. Public-private Investment 5.6 Home sewage treatment Identification of homes that Reduce the number of OLB/ Proposed Financial Create an awareness campaign cannot connect to the sewage nutrients and bacteria WEB resources are and incentives for homeowners plant and systematically in groundwater, needed for the to participate in the retrofitting eliminate old cesspools, and reducing the harm to plan’s successful program. retrofit to modern septic tanks. coral reefs. implementation. 5.7 Neighborhood/community Development of a grants Community OLB/ Proposed Human and Development of grant-making infrastructure funds mechanism for community-led participation in Neigh- financial resources process and support to neighborhood projects for various neighborhood- borhood are needed for the infrastructural councils councils on grant writing. specific infrastructure plan’s successful problems, solutions, associ- development uses, i.e., ations implementation. regenerating community centers, and investments. Limited capacity (New) roadwork, parks, SME grants, to implement and charities, etc. enforce policies and regulations. 108 | | 109 110 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 111 APPENDIX E stakeholder onhold, or proposed Strategic Existing, No. Project Name Project Description Objective Name of related Possible risks Implementation considerations programs 5.8 Sustainable private sector Development of water-use Reduction of water OLB/ Proposed Financial Availability of funding and the local water management efficiency audits of homes, consumption, create WEB resources are goods and services to carry out the businesses, and industries awareness. needed for the retrofitting. Create an awareness subsidized programs. Including plan’s successful campaign to incentivize homeowners incentives to encourage the implementation. to participate. replacement of plumbing fixtures Availability of and appliances with water- service providers efficient models. and retrofitting fixtures on island. Laws and regulations 5.10 Rainwater Introduction of a rainwater Increase rainwater OLB Proposed Speed of updating Policy-making and awareness-raising. harvesting harvesting system in building storage at home for building codes. codes for new construction. non-drinking purposes (cleaning, gardening, etc.) and reduce desalinated water consumption. 5.11 Safe disposal of marine Enforcement of yacht disposal Effectively manage Stinapa/ Existing Waste water Illegal dumping in Continues investment in port and vessels wastewater of their wastewater outside the wastewater to avoid WWF/ marina and Marine Park. piers marine vessel saltwater sewage marine park or via a collection polluting the natural OLB/ yachts (NMBP) treatment plants and awareness system. ecosystems that cause WEB campaigns for water vessel owners to human health issues comply. and environmental degradation. 5.12 Single-use plastic ban Expansion of the list of banned Prevent pollution from OLB Existing SUP ban Bonaire Illegal use and Availability of suitable replacements plastic products. plastic waste. - part 1 selling/providing that do not harm the environment at of banned plastic an accessible price. products. 6 Depletion of high-value natural ecosystems Policy and planning 6.1 Nature and Environmental Development of an integrated Conservation and OLB / Existing Nature and Human and Making sure there is sufficient Policy Plan framework addressing restoration of the I&W / Environmental financial resources ongoing data collection and reporting responsibilities, policy targets, unique and important EAC / Policy Plan for are needed for the on the impact of urban development nature of the island and legal obligations related ANF the Caribbean plan’s successful and tourism growth on the unique while building a to management of the natural resilient ecosystem, Netherlands implementation. and fragile ecosystems and taking environment allowing sustainable (NMBP-CN) effective and quick corrective use of resources, 2020-2030 measures. resulting in a healthy and prosperous society. 110 | | 111 112 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 113 APPENDIX E stakeholder onhold, or proposed Strategic Existing, No. Project Name Project Description Objective Name of related Possible risks Implementation considerations programs 6.2 Washington Slagbaai Development of the National To ensure the national Stinapa Existing Washington Invasive species; Finish Approval process and convert National Park Park management plan, park has a defined / OLB Slagbaai irresponsible to projects. Management plan including available scientific direction and resource National Park visitor behavior; knowledge on the area’s for preservation and Management overexploitation geology, ecology, and history, sustainable visitor use. plan 2022-2028 for tourism identification of the main threats, purposes incorporating the advice from stakeholders, and proposing actions to safeguard the natural and cultural heritage in the national park. 6.3 Bonaire Marine Park Development of the Marine Park To ensure the longevity Stinapa Existing Bonaire National Pollution, Finish Approval process and convert Management Plan management plan, setting a and integrity of / OLB Marine Park invasive species; to projects. roadmap that balances marine the fragile marine Management irresponsible conservation and restoration, ecosystem, protect the Plan 2022-2028 visitor behavior; sustainable recreational use and main economic driver overexploitation fishing, while mitigating and of the island tourism for tourism preventing negative impacts economy, mitigate purposes from urban development and food security issues, population growth. and increase residents’ quality of life. 6.3 Bonaire Marine Park Development of the Marine Park To ensure the longevity Stinapa Existing Bonaire National Pollution, Finish Approval process and convert Management Plan management plan, setting a and integrity of / OLB Marine Park invasive species; to projects. roadmap that balances marine the fragile marine Management irresponsible conservation and restoration, ecosystem, protect the Plan 2022-2028 visitor behavior; sustainable recreational use and main economic driver overexploitation fishing, while mitigating and of the island tourism for tourism preventing negative impacts economy, mitigate purposes from urban development and food security issues, population growth. and increase residents’ quality of life. Monitoring & reporting 6.4 Water quality research Creation of a permanent water To determine the RWS/ Proposed NMPB - CN Human and Consider applying for beach quality program quality and sedimentation in impact of urban Stinapa/ financial resources certification programs, for example, coastal water monitoring and development on the OLB/ are needed for Blue Flag - Alignment with the NMBP reporting program coastal water quality STCB the program’s and STMP. for human bathing successful and the health of the implementation. marine species 112 | | 113 114 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 115 APPENDIX E stakeholder onhold, or proposed Strategic Existing, No. Project Name Project Description Objective Name of related Possible risks Implementation considerations programs Laws and regulations 6.5 The Bonaire bond Inclusion of the Bonaire bond Create awareness TCB/ Proposed The Bonaire Human and Define a short version of the Bonaire passport pledge signature pledge directly onto and generate OLB/ Bond financial resources Bond to fit on one page of a passport. the foreign visitor’s passport commitment from IND- are needed for the Pass immigration rule to enforce during the immigration passport tourists to respect CN/ plan’s successful pledge signature upon arrival. Update control process. the local culture Stinapa implementation. collateral materials to include clear and environment do’s and don’ts aligned with the STMP and support local and NMBP. businesses. 6.6 Marine Park permits Review Marine Park permits Study on the carrying OLB/ Proposed Marine park fee Human and Determine the carrying capacity based on a Carrying capacity capacity of the Stinapa financial resources of the marine park, identification study for Marine Park vulnerable areas as are needed for the of at-risk sites, and revise marine the Marine Park and plan’s successful park permits regulation and the adjust the volume and implementation. surveillance and enforcement plan - boundaries of permits alignment with the STMP and NMBP. for activities 6.7 Ban on sunscreen Introduction of a ban on Create awareness and OLB/ On Hold Sunscreen Human and Develop a strong awareness sunscreens that contain protect the coral reef Stinapa/ awareness financial resources campaign to educate tourists, chemicals that harm the coral from toxic sunscreen TCB Bonaire are needed for the businesses, and residents about the reef chemicals plan’s successful policy on banning selling or using implementation. sunscreen products that are harmful to the coral reef. Include in the Bonaire Bond commitments. Align with STMP and NMBP. 6.8 Regulating fish quotas Introduction of a fish quota protect fish reserves Stinapa/ Proposed Cultural Develop an awareness campaign system for local fishers and and keep them viable OLB resistance, accessible to all levels of the local charter ships for tourists. for the future. commercial society, economic backgrounds, and resistance cultures (i.e., languages, diversity; and a surveillance and enforcement mechanism—alignment with the NMBP. 6.9 Building codes update Update of building codes Prevent illegal OLB Proposed Island Ordinance Human and Bonaire Bond commitments. Align and enforcement ordinance for coastal areas and constructions on regulations financial resources with STMP and NMBP. enforcement mechanism harmful to the coastal pertaining are needed for the plan’s successful ecosystem. to building implementation. and housing Finish Approval (Building process and and Housing convert to Ordinance 1999) enforcement plans 114 | | 115 116 Bonaire’s Sustainable Urban Development Carrying Capacity Study 2023 117 APPENDIX E stakeholder onhold, or proposed Strategic Existing, No. Project Name Project Description Objective Name of related Possible risks Implementation considerations programs Laws and regulations 6.10 Juniors Ranger Program Awareness, education, and Impart knowledge OLB/ Existing Junior Rangers Human and Ensure equity and accessibility to hands-on program on nature and develop attitude, Stinapa Program Stinapa financial resources youth from all economic backgrounds conservation for young skills, and a sense of are needed for the and cultures. Bonairians. responsibility that plan’s successful enables local youth to implementation. take necessary actions towards preserving nature and its components. 6.11 Nature conservation Creation of awareness campaigns Public awareness WWF/ Existing Boneiru Reaching all Ensure each campaign collaterals awareness campaigns and free online training and involvement in OLB/ Duradero levels of society and distribution channels reach all Stinapa/ programs for the general public nature protection and Selibon/ (WWF-NL Dutch and cultural levels of the local society, economic Sea to learn about nature protection, conservation initiatives Turtle Caribbean backgrounds backgrounds, and cultures (i.e., local initiatives, and how to get and projects. Conser- marine program) languages, diversity)—alignment with vation involved. Bonaire/ the NMBP. Clean Coast Bonaire/ the Dutch Carib- bean Nature Alliance 6.12 Tour guides environmental Development of a tour guide Increase the quality Stinapa/ Existing Unlicenced Develop tour guide training training environmental awareness of the tourism Forma instructors and environmental curriculum in tourism training program. experience and guides operating alignment with the STMP and NMBP. raise environmental awareness and conservation of local resources and ecosystems. 6.13 Reforestation Program Restoration of the local dry forest, Raise awareness OLB Existing My Bonaire Tree / Free-roaming Generate awareness across residents and involving the local community in about the dry NGO’s NMPB-CN animals eating of all economic backgrounds and the management and results of forest’s importance, (Terra and trampling cultures (i.e., languages, diversity)— Barra, these reforestation areas degradation, and Echo, seedlings alignment with the NMBP. Generate Man- vulnerability; restore grove awareness and attract tourism Maniacs, the natural habitat of San Jose, support (eg. help them protect endangered species Seru the critically endangered endemic Largu, losing space to urban Barcade- Bonaire palm, with only 25 mature development. ra) individuals left) - alignment with the STPM. 116 | | 117 PICTURE BY: Lorenzo Foto’s Bonaire’s Media Hub