Natural Resource Management, Fragility, and Conflict Issues GUIDANCE NOTE FOR COUNTRY CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORTS NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES Guidance Note for Country Climate and Development Reports Elise Doumergue Shaadee Ahmadnia Max Hammond Caio de Araújo Barbosa © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. 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Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: Shaadee Ahmadnia / World Bank. Cover photo depicts a woman cooking over a fire in rural Nepal. Design: Sergio Andres Moreno Tellez NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS Table of Contents INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................................................... 1 SECTION I. Key Natural Resource Management Considerations for CCDR Development in FCS ..................... 3 Chapter 1. Climate Change and Development ..................................................................................................................................... 3 Chapter 2. Country Climate Commitments, Policies, and Capacities ....................................................................................... 8 Chapter 3. Sectoral Deep Dives ................................................................................................................................................................ 11 Conflict Risks and Drivers by Natural Resource Category ...................................................................................................... 11 The Renewable Energy Sector ............................................................................................................................................................ 13 Chapter 4. Macroeconomic Welfare Implications of Climate Change ..................................................................................... 14 Chapter 5. Conclusion and Recommendations ................................................................................................................................. 16 SECTION II. Questionnaire for Conflict-Sensitive Natural Resource Management in CCDR Development .. 17 ANNEX 1: Insights from Promoting FCV-Sensitive Climate Action in CCDRs: An Approach Note ................. 22 BOXES Box 1. Key definitions .......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Box 2. Renewable resources conflict drivers ................................................................................................................. 12 TABLES Table 1. Example of the potential cascading impacts of climate change and environmental degradation ............... 4 Table 2. Mapping linkages between natural resource management and peacebuilding .................................................... 5 Table 3. Non-renewable resources (extractive industries) risks and drivers ......................................................................... 11 Table 4. Land risks and drivers ................................................................................................................................................................. 12 Table 5. Common climate mitigation policies and potential pathways to conflict ............................................................ 15 Abbreviations CCDR Country Climate and Development Report DM Decision Meetings DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo FCS fragility and conflict-affected situations FCV fragility, conflict, and violence GBV gender-based violence GDP Gross Domestic Product IDP internally displaced persons IEG Independent Evaluation Group IPV intimate partner violence NBS nature-based solutions PES payment for ecosystem services QER Quality Enhancement Review RRA Risk and Resilience Assessment SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS INTRODUCTION The purpose of this note is to identify and disseminate good practices in Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) to improve coverage of the critical linkages between climate change, environment, and natural resource management in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS). The World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) 2020-2025 underscores the need to systematically adopt a contextual and conflict-sensitive lens, including climate adaptation, mitigation, and natural resource management practices. 1 The Strategy calls for a holistic approach to addressing the impacts of fragility, conflict, and violence to support countries and the most vulnerable and marginalized populations within them. This invariably includes those affected by transnational issues and emergencies that are exacerbated by increasing conflict over natural resource access and use, as well as climate variability and change (e.g., migration, famines, pandemics). In recent years, the World Bank has continued to scale up efforts to improve conflict- and fragility-sensitive programming. There are growing efforts to more prominently integrate these concerns in development and climate work, such as Promoting FCV-Sensitive Climate Action in CCDRs (forthcoming, Annex 1).2 The World Bank approach note offers practical steps for integrating FCV considerations into CCDRs and emphasizes the importance of leveraging sector-specific lenses, particularly those related to environment, climate, and FCV overlaps. This note is constructed to address this imperative. Untapped opportunities exist to enhance natural resource and climate change-focused initiatives by adopting conflict- sensitive approaches early on within the scope of program development; this is especially relevant to the CCDR as a diagnostic tool upstream framing country engagement decisions towards low-carbon, resilient growth. Integrating a nuanced climate change and conflict-sensitive approach in CCDRs and emphasizing natural resource management in FCS can address disparities, empower marginalized communities, foster effective climate change adaptation, and promote positive feedback loops. CCDRs have further opportunities to consider FCV-specific risks and dynamics when looking at future climate models and the varying climate impacts and unequal access to natural resources, which influence the likelihood of conflict and how it manifests. To support this end, this note is divided into two sections: Section I delves into key natural resource considerations for CCDR development in FCS, with examples of how existing CCDRs have incorporated the linkages between natural resources, climate change, fragility, and conflict into their analyses. Section II presents two sets of questions for Context Analysis and Recommendation Design to support the integration of these dimensions in future CCDRs and ensure their conflict sensitivity. Box 1. Key definitions Defueling Conflict: Environment and Natural Resource Management as a Pathway to Peace (2022) offers recommendations for programs and projects to consider the multiple dimensions of conflict – that is, to be conflict-sensitive. The starting point for conflict sensitivity is the assumption that no intervention is neutral. Conflict sensitivity enhances the understanding about the risks associated with working in FCV contexts, helps avoid exacerbating or generating conflict, and contributes to identifying opportunities to prevent 1 World Bank Group (2020). World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020–2025. Washington, DC: World Bank. 2 World Bank Group (forthcoming). Promoting FCV-Sensitive Climate Action in CCDRs: An Approach Note. Washington, DC: World Bank. 1 INTRODUCTION violence and promote resilience. Conflict sensitivity also means that there is no one-size-fits-all solutions, since conflict drivers and dynamics vary from context to context. Building resilience and adaptation to climate in conflict- and climate change-vulnerable settings is key to preventing conflict and fostering sustainable development outcomes. Literature and implementing agencies have described several approaches and pathways by which the management of environmental issues supports conflict prevention, mitigation, resolution, and recovery, which Ide et al. (2021) defines as environmental peacebuilding.3 The same factors that make a country or community vulnerable to conflict make them vulnerable to climate change, and sustainable livelihoods, social cohesion, and effective governance are key to coping with shocks and stresses associated with both. 3 Ide, Tobias, Carl Bruch, Alexander Carius, Ken Conca, Geoff Dabelko, Richard Matthew, and Erika Weinthal (2021). “The Past and Future(s) of Environmental Peacebuilding.” International Affairs 97 (1): 1–16. 2 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS SECTION I. Key Natural Resource Management Considerations for CCDR Development in FCS This section highlights key priorities to screen for at each stage of CCDR development. It provides recommendations for key points to address when covering the fragility, conflict, environment, and natural resource management nexus in future CCDRs and highlights best practices found in existing CCDRs. This work draws on a review of preliminary documents and published CCDRs related to countries which have been on a World Bank FCS list over the past four fiscal years. 4 This sample includes 10 CCDRs published between July 2022 and April 2024 and the preliminary documents of the CCDRs of 5 other countries (i.e. Concept Notes, drafts submitted to Quality Enhancement Review (QER) meetings or Decision Meetings (DM)). 5 This CCDR analysis covers a total of 19 economies, ranging from low-income to lower-middle income. Of these, 12 are either recurrently or chronically on the FCS list (Burundi, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Republic of Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Iraq, Lebanon, Liberia, Mali, Sudan, West Bank and Gaza, 6 and Zimbabwe) and 5 more have been designated with FCS status within the last four fiscal years (Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Niger, and Ukraine). In addition, complementary and relevant material from CCDRs covering non-FCS countries (Morocco and Honduras) are also included when they provide best practices replicable in FCS contexts. Chapter 1. Climate Change and Development Tip: Examine the relationship between natural resource dependency and vulnerability to climate and security risks while identifying opportunities and entry points for mitigating risk and building resilience • What role do natural resources have in the national and/or local economy? Examine the extent of natural resource dependence. • Are government finances highly dependent on natural resource rents or exports? Are these revenue streams at risk of being impacted by adverse climate events? • Which groups or populations are more dependent on natural resources than others? In what ways have these groups been consulted, targeted, and included? • How do disasters such as droughts, storms, and floods impact both natural resources and the livelihoods of different groups and regions? • How do these impacts contribute to climate-conflict risks and affect social cohesion? • What kinds of spatial data can be collected and analyzed to see regional and territorial climate impacts? • What are some possible unintended consequences for different groups or communities looking to diversify away from non-renewable dependent economies? • Has inequity in resource sharing contributed to triggering or perpetuating conflicts? How so? • How have natural resources been utilized in conflict economies at the national, regional, and local scales? 4 FY2020-FY2024 5 The published CCDRs mentioned are the CCDRs of Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Iraq, Lebanon, Liberia, the G5 Sahel region, the West Bank and Gaza, and Zimbabwe. The preliminary documents mentioned relate to the CCDRs currently in preparation of Burundi, Guinea-Bissau, Mozambique, Sudan, and Ukraine. 6 The West Bank and Gaza CCDR was prepared prior to the current conflict that began in October 2023. 3 SECTION I. KEY NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CONSIDERATIONS FOR CCDR DEVELOPMENT IN FCS Key risk factors such as high natural resource dependence, inequality and marginalization, and a recent history of conflict are common characteristics of FCS which combined, signal the likelihood of whether competition over natural resources escalates into conflict. Resulting competition can occur over both scarce and abundant resources. As illustrated in Defueling Conflict: Environment and Natural Resource Management as a Pathway to Peace, natural resource dependencies are often so pronounced in FCS that changes in the physical landscape are expected to significantly alter the economic, social, and political landscape. 7 Any change in the quantity, quality, or value of natural resources can escalate tensions in such contexts, whether it be a decrease due to degradation and climate change or an increase due to global markets and restoration. It is important to consider these dependencies up front in a CCDR to then anticipate and mitigate impacts when designing models and developing recommendations. FCS CCDRs emphasize that the high dependence on natural resources for revenue generation and as a means of subsistence contributes significantly to the vulnerability of communities. For example, the draft CCDR for Guinea- Bissau presented at the DM highlights how subsistence agriculture, a sector responsible for nearly 50 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employing 80 percent of the country’s labor force, is highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. 8 The draft CCDR uses forecasts from the country’s National Adaptation Programme of Action to predict future risks to food security and livelihoods. Climate vulnerability is also recognized in the draft CCDR as a potential FCV driver as higher temperatures increase the likelihood of drought and less and more erratic rainfall occurs in drier parts of the country. In this context, the draft CCDR recognizes that reduced water availability will result in further land degradation and reduced availability of pastureland, with significant impacts on food production, as well as a modification in transhumance practices as populations seek viable land and water sources for livestock elsewhere in the country. This can give way to and intensify conflicts between pastoralists and farmers who increasingly need to compete for an ever-scarce common pool of natural resources. Furthermore, this can lead to outmigration from arid rural areas to areas perceived as providing more favorable conditions for livelihood sustainability. Examples of the dynamic interplay between these factors are highlighted in Table 1. Table 1. Example of the potential cascading impacts of climate change and environmental degradation Source: Ahmadnia, et al. 2022 7 Ahmadnia,Shaadee Jasmine; Christien,Agathe Marie; Spencer,Phoebe Girouard; Hart,Tracy; De Araujo Barbosa,Caio Cesar (2022). Defueling Conflict Environment and Natural Resource Management as a Pathway to Peace. Washington, DC: World Bank. 8 World Bank Group (forthcoming). Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. (Under Review) 4 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS Several CCDRs highlight the potential risks that may arise due to increased competition over scarce natural resources. The Iraq CCDR team engaged in multiple focus group discussions with climate-vulnerable groups such as farmers and conducted social media surveys to investigate the anticipated impacts of climate change on social stability. 9 Respondents expressed concerns about increased risks of community conflicts over scarce natural resources. Farmers voiced concern for the worsening availability of water resources and the fast pace of land degradation, which currently threaten their livelihoods, resulting in an increasing number of farmers resorting to migration as an adaptation strategy. Diversifying economies through inclusive natural resource management is a method and solution for building the resilience of resource-dependent FCV countries. Climate-related recommendations and growth-enhancing strategies exhibit significant overlap, as exemplified by the case of fossil fuel exporters like Iraq, where increasing export competitiveness in non-oil sectors is a key development challenge. 10 As with most FCS export-dependent economies (e.g. DRC, Guinea-Bissau, and Zimbabwe), exploring avenues to diversify economic activity beyond reliance on select non-renewable and renewable natural resources can alleviate pressures and tensions related to resource competition and scarcity. Simultaneously, projects catered toward land restoration and the improvement of existing land practices, such as in the recommendations in the DRC CCDR, are complementary and useful to macro-level labor shifts. 11 Additionally, proposed shifts toward low-carbon economies should strive to effectively link considerations of development and peace (Table 2), ensuring that investments such as transboundary hydropower projects, a smooth transition to biofuels, and sustainable labor shifts are inclusive of those on the periphery. Table 2. Mapping linkages between natural resource management and peacebuilding Source: Ahmadnia et al. 2022 adapted from UNDG and UNECHA 2013. 12 9 World Bank Group (2022). Iraq Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 10 World Bank Group (2022). Iraq Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 11 World Bank Group (2023). Democratic Republic of Congo Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 12 UNDG (United Nations Development Group) and UNECHA (United Nations Executive Committee on Humanitarian Affairs) (2013). “Natural Resource Management in Transition Settings.” Guidance Note. New York: United Nations Development Group. 5 SECTION I. KEY NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CONSIDERATIONS FOR CCDR DEVELOPMENT IN FCS Tip: Identify vulnerable groups and their differentiated coping and adaptive capacities • Are there specific regions, groups, communities, or economies that are particularly exposed to climate change-related stressors? • How do their vulnerabilities intersect with natural resource management, livelihoods, and conflict dynamics? • How are these groups consulted with and represented throughout the CCDR process? How are their voices being recognized and heard? • Are measures incorporated to remove barriers to the participation of people most involved in conflict issues and who may feel threatened to engage in the development processes (e.g., minorities that are victims of violence in an ethnic conflict, or women who suffer from gender-based violence)? • How do women and men access, use, and control natural resources in this context? How are these resources managed, and who is excluded? • In what ways do decarbonization, mitigation, and adaptation solutions impact marginalized populations? • How will diversification avenues or methods impact groups particularly exposed to climate-sensitive work? • During data collection and analysis periods, is an intersectional (e.g., gender, ethnicity, race, religious practice, socioeconomic status, age, geographic location) lens applied? • Are gender-differentiated needs, preferences, knowledge, and roles within a community taken into account in CCDR development? The impacts of climate change are not uniform across societies as individuals' vulnerability is shaped by a variety of factors. These include, for example, socio-economic status, gender, geographic location, access to resources, as well as cultural dynamics. Identifying vulnerable groups is paramount in formulating effective climate strategies that can jointly mitigate the risks of further marginalization, reduce inequalities, and foster a just transition. It is critical that teams preparing CCDRs take these considerations into account and develop creative approaches to strengthen the inclusivity of their recommendations. CCDRs highlight different factors through which women face significantly greater exposure to the adverse effects of climate change. Climate change can widen existing gender gaps and contribute to further marginalization of vulnerable groups in FCV settings. Women and men tend to use and rely on natural resources differently. For example, Morocco’s CCDR underlines how lower access to formal employment and a limited level of disaster preparedness put women at higher risk of climate shocks. 13 During periods of drought, women’s workloads also tend to rise, increasing time-poverty concerns as they are often responsible for fetching water in rural households. Morocco's CCDR relied on a literature review of the gender-differentiated impacts of climate change to identify these dynamics. In addition, CCDRs’ coverage of the agricultural sector has demonstrated that adverse climate effects can disrupt the livelihoods of women and other vulnerable groups such as refugees. This is the case in Iraq, for example, where agriculture is the main source of livelihoods for rural women, or in Lebanon, where refugee groups predominantly rely on agriculture as a means of subsistence.14,15 It is critical that CCDRs take into account how the impact of climate change on jobs in these sectors will have different consequences on men’s and women's employment. CCDRs have an opportunity to further integrate considerations of refugee presence and influx, as well as internally displaced persons (IDPs), into climate change adaptation and mitigation actions. Plans and frameworks developed in the context of facilitating the transition to a low-carbon and more resilient economy need to be more specific on how the issue of displaced populations will be dealt with. This holds true not only for countries experiencing large levels of out-migration but also for nations hosting significant refugee populations (Cameroon, DRC, Sahel). The Honduras 13 World Bank Group (2022). Morocco Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 14 World Bank Group (2022). Iraq Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 15 World Bank Group (2024). Lebanon Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 6 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS CCDR explicitly recognizes the acute exposure of vulnerable migrants (refugees, asylum seekers, and IDPs) to climate- related risks and emphasizes the need to include them, along with other vulnerable groups, in social protection arrangements, governance processes, and national discussions. 16 Stakeholder engagement practices are critical tools to ensure CCDRs’ consideration of the perspectives of vulnerable groups and to enhance the quality of the recommendations provided by the reports. The Iraq CCDR team designed a methodology operationalizing the “people-centric” approach of CCDRs that prioritizes inclusive and iterative consultations with diverse stakeholders throughout the development of the CCDR. 17 Their Stakeholder Engagement Plan, developed in tandem with the core analytics of the CCDR, was critical to ensure that the perspectives of vulnerable groups were taken into account and that the recommendations provided by the report were implementable and addressed core development and climate challenges on the ground. Some CCDRs’ use of a localized approach to climate and conflict can be beneficial to unpack the differentiated exposure and vulnerability of territories and people to climate risks and provide more targeted recommendations. The Cameroon CCDR developed and applied such a territorial approach, emphasizing that climate change has differentiated regional impacts on natural resources and erosion of human capital. 18 Building on a detailed diagnosis of these risks, the report emphasizes the importance of regional adaptation investments and local climate action plans to address local vulnerabilities and minimize the amplification of conflict drivers and ensuing violence after climate shocks. Additionally, the DRC CCDR uses population-poverty overlays to map out hotspots in areas with a recent history of conflict and high population densities as one way to possibly predict where conflict outbreaks would occur. 19 Data was collected and mapped at the territorial level. Such early warning analytics could also benefit from incorporating data on natural resources and projections of climate change impacts. The Sahel CCDR mentions a new approach to vulnerability assessment, presented in a recent World Bank report, 20 that uses machine learning to cluster locations with similar vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity) levels and assess climate and conflict risk. 21 This approach uses a predictive model to determine the extent to which climate-related variables can predict conflict outcomes, and models are complemented with in-depth case studies. In doing so, this new report helps teams “design, evaluate, and assess the operational effectiveness of projects that address climate and conflict- related vulnerabilities.” 22 16 World Bank Group (2023). Honduras Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 17 World Bank Group (2022). Iraq Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 18 World Bank Group (2022). Cameroon Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 19 World Bank Group (2023). Democratic Republic of Congo Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 20 Figueredo Thomson,Manuel Emilio; Pattison,Corey Ryan; Agrawal,Arun; Erbaugh,James Thomas; Friedrich,Hannah Kathleen; Heinz,Sebastian Raphael; Gutierrez Hernandez,Leonardo Simon (2023). The Climate Change and Conflict Nexus in West Africa: A New Approach for Operationally Relevant Vulnerability Assessments. Washington, DC: World Bank. 21 World Bank Group (2022). G5 Sahel Region Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 22 Figueredo Thomson, et al. (2023). The Climate Change and Conflict Nexus in West Africa: A New Approach for Operationally Relevant Vulnerability Assessments. Washington, DC: World Bank, p. 10. 7 SECTION I. KEY NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CONSIDERATIONS FOR CCDR DEVELOPMENT IN FCS Chapter 2. Country Climate Commitments, Policies, and Capacities Tip: Identify and address weak institutional capacity to manage the impacts of climate change on natural resources • What kind of conflict and power dynamics exist around natural resources? Which actors are involved? • How do non-state actors project influence in areas with particularly sparse state presence? • Have people adopted coping mechanisms with negative consequences for natural resources to deal with conflict and environment-related vulnerability? • Does the government have the resources (e.g. financial, technical, labor) to enforce decarbonization and climate adaptation solutions? • Is there coherence among climate-friendly policies and programs? • How are disputes over natural resource access, use, or control managed? As much as 70 percent of the most climate-vulnerable countries are also among the most fragile, where government and institutional resilience and response are often lacking. 23 Issues such as uneven access to natural resources, high levels and prevalence of environmental degradation, dependency on agriculture, and susceptibility to natural hazards can exacerbate existing social tensions and grievances. 24 Mass migration, often driven by shocks, climate variability, or outright war, puts additional pressure on labor markets, government service delivery, infrastructure, and land. State response to shocks is often piecemeal and slow in FCS as these factors intersect and are compounded by weak institutional capacity and fragmented state influence. The absence of strong and reliable institutions and the competing priorities associated with natural disasters and ongoing conflict exacerbate the challenges faced by national governments in coordinating actions and designing and implementing coherent longer-term programs and strategies on climate change. CCDRs should highlight different ways that weaker institutional capacity can, directly and indirectly, impact vulnerability to climate shocks—exacerbating environmental degradation risks, undermining development progress, and putting marginalized populations at further risk. The limited provision of basic services, for example, can increase the exposure of populations to the impacts of a changing climate and result in further instability, violence, and the adoption of negative coping mechanisms. In the West Bank and Gaza, the CCDR underscores that the ongoing over- abstraction of groundwater resources and the use of private-run diesel generators to overcome limited-service provision have had a significant economic and environmental cost. 25 In addition, the lack of regulating capacities and resources for conservation can also impede the protection of the natural asset base from climate impacts and illicit resource extraction. Forests are particularly vulnerable to such risks, while they offer significant opportunities for the socioeconomic development of rural areas. The Lebanon CCDR underlines how the economic crisis has accelerated the degradation of the country's natural capital, including its forests, which in turn compromises the tourism sector, a key economic lever of Lebanon's rural economy. 26 During times of ongoing and unforeseen crisis, national governments may prioritize economic recovery and political stability and shift away from environmental regulation and oversight in the immediate term, with potentially irreversible far-reaching consequences in the long-term. CCDRs also point out that fragile institutional frameworks can pose additional challenges in the development and implementation of climate actions. For example, Ukraine’s CCDR Concept Note highlights credibility and coordination concerns undermining climate policy implementation. 27 The Concept Note details how the respective mandates of different ministries and the lack of central coordination have resulted in insufficient resource allocation, siloed work 23 Rüttinger, Lukas (2020). Climate-Fragility Policy Paper: Climate Change in the United Nations Peacebuilding Commission and Fund. Berlin: adelphi. 24 Ahmadnia, et al. (2022). Defueling Conflict Environment and Natural Resource Management as a Pathway to Peace. Washington, DC: World Bank. 25 World Bank Group (2023). West Bank and Gaza Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 26 World Bank Group (2024). Lebanon Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 27 World Bank Group (forthcoming). Ukraine Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. (Under Review) 8 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS across organizations, and a lack of integration between climate mitigation policy and adaptation policy. This may further the development of harmful incentives built into conflicting national policy, given the pursuance of individual goals without due consideration for the broader climate context and existing FCV dynamics. Similarly, the Sahel CCDR recognizes weak institutional capacity as a barrier to climate action considering the limited power of Ministries in charge of the environment to promote the mainstreaming of climate or environmental issues in national and sectoral policies. 28 This diagnosis of institutional capacity limitations is equally critical to inform the quality of CCDRs’ recommendations and to support a sequential reform strategy when needed. For example, FCS CCDRs often acknowledge the importance of mobilizing private sector investment for climate action as a means to overcome countries’ tight fiscal space. However, private sector engagement can be significantly constrained by the fragile institutional framework in which it operates. Recognizing this challenge, the Lebanon CCDR outlines and specifies the preconditions necessary for successful private sector mobilization, such as restructuring the financial sector to help businesses and people regain access to finance and building up legislative support 29 Identifying critical institutional limitations can therefore enhance the practicality of CCDR recommendations. For countries that are further behind in these diagnostics, the Sahel CCDR recommends foundational investments, particularly in budget planning, land management, and social protection. It recommends inclusive processes that take a diverse set of stakeholders into consideration in order to make policy more adept for the communities facing the most pressing issues. 30 Tip: Consider the extent to which existing policies, legal, and institutional systems related to natural resource management and climate are inclusive of vulnerable groups and their needs. • What is the impact of climate policies and programs on marginalized groups? • How is the government responding to migration or displacement concerns? What is the impact of their response? • Does the government safeguard and listen to the concerns of different groups? How so? Are any groups excluded? Just as the impacts of climate change on populations are not uniform, individuals' vulnerability to climate change is also shaped by policy, legal, and institutional systems as well as cultural dynamics, socio-economic factors, geography, and access to resources. For example, the Guinea-Bissau draft CCDR points to the existence of biases against women, whose access to resources like land, livestock, financial capital, and mobility and whose participation in decision- making processes and community engagement remain limited. 31 This in turn exposes women to heightened climate change vulnerability. Based on this assessment, the draft CCDR underscores the necessity to collect gender-specific environment and climate data in order to design interventions that meet the specific needs and priorities of women. It also highlights the value of improving the access of marginalized groups, including women, to financial instruments, integrating gender considerations into policies, capacity-building initiatives, and enhancing women’s participation in climate change adaptation efforts. When the management of resources are characterized by systemic exclusion and discrimination in decision-making, inadequate benefit-sharing, or the mismanagement of resource revenues, this can perpetuate poverty, inequality, and grievances, particularly among vulnerable groups. Referring to Lebanon’s recent hydrocarbon prospects, the country’s CCDR emphasizes the importance of establishing an adequate legal and regulatory framework, including a sovereign wealth fund, prior to the launch of commercial operations, to safeguard wealth for future generations. 32 28 World Bank Group (2022). G5 Sahel Region Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 29 World Bank Group (2024). Lebanon Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 30 World Bank Group (2022). G5 Sahel Region Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 31 World Bank Group (forthcoming). Guinea-Bissau Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. (Under Review) 32 World Bank Group (2024). Lebanon Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 9 SECTION I. KEY NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CONSIDERATIONS FOR CCDR DEVELOPMENT IN FCS The document highlights that such mechanisms would be crucial to avoid possible negative impacts on FCV that may arise from weak institutions and inadequate governance in the face of a newfound resource discovery windfall. Opportunities exist to intervene with conflict-sensitive approaches to abate loss. Groups marginalized by insufficiently inclusive state policies may see their situation deteriorate even further as a result of climate change impacts or non- inclusive climate policies. It is critical to keep in mind that the perception of injustice, originating from real or perceived inequalities, can be a powerful driver of conflict. Pastoralists in the Sahel have been known to join violent extremist groups in part because these groups help them defend their livelihoods. 33 DRC’s CCDR notes a lowered opportunity cost in the decision to join armed groups when livelihoods, particularly in agriculture, are impacted. 34 Other FCS experience less violence but show signs of persistent fragility such as high levels of resource dependency, poverty, and exclusion (as is the case with Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, and Zimbabwe), which could devolve into early signs of violence. 33 World Bank Group (2022). G5 Sahel Region Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 34 World Bank Group (2023). Democratic Republic of Congo Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 10 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS Chapter 3. Sectoral Deep Dives What dynamics can you expect depending on the sector and natural resource? There is an opportunity to explicitly highlight the need for investments to be designed to avoid negative externalities that could intensify existing FCV dynamics (e.g., resource competition, livelihood disruption, elite capture, environmental degradation, and amplification of grievances). To support this end, this section briefly summarizes the risks and drivers associated with different sectors and natural resources. Additional examples and analyses are available in the report, Defueling Conflict: Environment and Natural Resource Management as a Pathway to Peace. Conflict Risks and Drivers by Natural Resource Category NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES (EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRIES) Includes: Oil and gas, minerals, gemstones, timber from old-growth forests. Table 3 summarizes the conflict dynamics for non-renewable resources. Table 3. Non-renewable resources (extractive industries) risks and drivers Source: Ahmadnia et al. 2022 based on UNDG and UNECHA 2013. 35 RENEWABLE RESOURCES Includes: Water, forests, and productive lands; wind, solar, tidal, and hydro energy; wildlife; timber from forestry; fertile soils; biodiversity; etc. Note that resources are renewable if they are managed, extracted, and used within their regenerative capacity. 36 Renewable resources are often associated with scarcity-induced conflict, but an abundant renewable resource can also lead to violent conflict and follow the dynamics associated with extractive industries (Box 2). 35 UNDG (United Nations Development Group) and UNECHA (United Nations Executive Committee on Humanitarian Affairs) (2013). “Natural Resource Management in Transition Settings.” Guidance Note. New York: United Nations Development Group. 36 Schellens, Marie K., and Arnaud Diemer (2020). “Natural Resource Conflicts: Definition and Three Frameworks to Aid Analysis.” In Partnerships for the Goals, edited by Walter Leal Filho, Anabela Marisa Azul, Luciana Brandli, Amanda Lange Salvia, and Tony Wall. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Cham: Springer International Publishing. 11 SECTION I. KEY NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CONSIDERATIONS FOR CCDR DEVELOPMENT IN FCS Box 2. Renewable resources conflict drivers Source: Ahmadnia et al. 2022 based on UNDG and UNECHA 2013. 37 LAND Land is treated as a separate natural resource category due to its holistic nature as a supporting resource for both renewable and non-renewable resources. Table 4 lists the risks and drivers. Table 4. Land risks and drivers Source: Ahmadnia et al. 2022 based on UNDG and UNECHA 2013. 38 37 UNDG (United Nations Development Group) and UNECHA (United Nations Executive Committee on Humanitarian Affairs) (2013). “Natural Resource Management in Transition Settings.” Guidance Note. New York: United Nations Development Group. 38 UNDG (United Nations Development Group) and UNECHA (United Nations Executive Committee on Humanitarian Affairs) (2013). “Natural Resource Management in Transition Settings.” Guidance Note. New York: United Nations Development Group. 12 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS The Renewable Energy Sector The clean energy transition encompasses all three resource categories. Renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and hydro power can serve as inputs for the clean energy transition, and the infrastructure and process of harnessing renewable energy requires non-renewable mineral resources and land. Given the risks associated with changing natural resource values, it is important to anticipate and mitigate conflicts that may arise with changes to the quantity and quality of natural resources associated with the transition. Non-renewable mineral resources required for the clean energy transition are primarily available in FCS-affected countries and ensuring a just transition for oil-reliant economies will be critical for stabilizing the loss of government revenues. It is critical to buffer these shocks with support to livelihoods and building capacity for resource governance. Minerals are the new fossil fuels needed to make renewable technologies work. Communities will need to benefit from this new green industrial revolution and avoid exploitative extraction. The DRC CCDR formulates different recommendations to harness the potential of mining for inclusive growth while diffusing the risks of FCV usually linked to mineral price hikes. 39 The report emphasizes, for example, the need to create formal jobs along the mineral value chain and implement certification schemes, while ensuring equitable benefit-sharing. The occurrence of human rights abuses is rising in the renewable energy sector. 40 Wind and solar energy infrastructure require more land than fossil fuel projects and have raised issues surrounding land rights, the elite capture of land and water, and forced displacement. For some countries, the land that is open and suitable for such projects is predominantly Indigenous. Benchmark scores evaluating the human rights policies of the 15 largest renewable energy companies are on par with high-risk industries, including extractives and apparel. This highlights the need for human rights to be at the center of these investments, and consideration for conducting stakeholder engagement and elucidating tenure for the equitable, transparent sharing of benefits. 39 World Bank Group (2023). Democratic Republic of Congo Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 40 Business & Human Rights Resource Centre (2021), Renewable Energy & Human Rights Benchmark: Key Findings from the Wind & Solar Sectors. London: Business & Human Rights Resource Centre. 13 SECTION I. KEY NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CONSIDERATIONS FOR CCDR DEVELOPMENT IN FCS Chapter 4. Macroeconomic Welfare Implications of Climate Change Thinking Through Policy Options and Distributional Impacts Tip: Anticipate the negative externalities of adaptation and mitigation measures and foster a just transition • In what ways could “green” diversification, climate mitigation, and adaptation measures exacerbate gender inequality, gender-based violence, fragility, and conflict dimensions? • What would a just transition look like for different groups? Consider the winners and losers of each policy option. • What proactive measures can be taken to safeguard vulnerable populations in this transition? • If the green transition entails a temporary reduction in government revenue (for example, as part of the shift away from fossil fuel extraction), what would be the consequences for public employment and the provision of basic services? • What types of data would need to be gathered and analyzed to better ensure that recommendations mitigate negative externalities, particularly for those that are marginalized? Policies and programs designed to support economic growth ought to have a conflict-sensitive lens that is appropriately integrated and inclusive to maximize benefits and mitigate harm. Climate actions directed towards adaptation or mitigation can have unintended negative consequences in FCS. Table 5 lists common climate mitigation policies and potential pathways to conflict. Negative externalities resulting from adaptation and mitigation measures have the potential to push the most marginalized further into poverty as well as to breed grievances and exacerbate violence. The implications of marginalization and inequality, for example concerning employment access, are critical pieces of CCDR recommendations. While some CCDRs briefly acknowledge the lower participation of women and youth across economic sectors and the presence of significant refugee populations, the consequences of such dynamics are rarely touched upon. Gender disparities, the exclusion of marginalized populations, and the absence of effective adaptation and mitigation policies targeting these groups are likely to render further unequal access to livelihood opportunities, land, and natural resources, and therefore drive conflict. The emphasis on “green jobs” in CCDRs (e.g., Sahel, Cameroon, Iraq, DRC, and Liberia) can be hampered by these structural and cultural inequalities. They can influence access to training opportunities, participation in decision-making, and inclusion in economic opportunities which are crucial for the necessary transition to a low-carbon, resilient, and sustainable economy, as envisioned in the econometric models brought forward by the CCDRs. In-depth research into the intersectional impacts of climate change effects and green policies on vulnerable groups is a key first step toward better understanding and adequate scrutiny of these reinforcing feedback loops. For instance, Cameroon’s CCDR includes distributional impact models of climate actions on male and female employment. 41 This modeling was instrumental in identifying the persistent gender gap, even under an optimistic climate adaptation scenario, and highlighting the importance of gender-responsive policies and programming to try and narrow this gap. In the case of Iraq, the CCDR team effectively teases out some of the knock-on consequences of the transition to a low-carbon economy. 42 The report highlights how the decline in oil revenues will negatively impact public spending, transfers, and employment. Noting the importance of the public sector for women‘s employment, the report recommends protecting the budgets for education and health providers to shield female public workers from layoffs and safeguard human capital accumulation. Emphasizing how negative externalities of the green transition intersect with the differentiated vulnerabilities of specific groups is critical to mitigate these risks and limit the deepening of inequalities and grievances. 41 World Bank Group (2022). Cameroon Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 42 World Bank Group (2022). Iraq Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. 14 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS Table 5. Common climate mitigation policies and potential pathways to conflict Source: Gilmore and Buhaug 2021. 43 Some CCDRs underscore the significant transitional risks resulting from domestic and global climate policies. In Ukraine, for example, the CCDR Concept Note highlights that the regions that host carbon-intensive activities and are relatively undiversified in their economic base are particularly vulnerable to the transition. 44 Their experience of economic stagnation and decline, which could be further exacerbated by the transition away from fossil fuels, had already proven to fuel considerable discontent and contribute to social and political fragility. The same CCDR Concept Note also emphasizes that pricing instruments such as carbon taxes could have significant negative social impacts, for example, on energy access and poverty, threatening the implementation and acceptance of climate policy measures. Therefore, the Ukraine CCDR Concept Note stresses the need to ensure a just climate transition to avoid exacerbating existing economic and social tensions in regions already marked by industrial decline and conflict. Recommendations include supporting coal regions by: strengthening institutional governance at the local and regional level to drive and support the transition process, providing income and training support to communities, and financing environmental reclamation and rehabilitation efforts, for example, by repurposing mining assets for local economic development. 43 Gilmore, Elisabeth A., and Halvard Buhaug (2021). “Climate Mitigation Policies and the Potential Pathways to Conflict: Outlining a Research Agenda.” WIREs Climate Change 12 (5). 44 World Bank Group (forthcoming). Ukraine Country Climate and Development Report. CCDR Series. Washington, DC: World Bank. (Under Review) 15 SECTION I. KEY NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CONSIDERATIONS FOR CCDR DEVELOPMENT IN FCS Nature-based interventions such as land restoration or payment for ecosystem services (PES), which often feature in CCDR recommendations, can also exacerbate FCV-related risks. In places impacted by FCV, even the most degraded land retains value as a crucial social safety net for vulnerable individuals reliant on natural resource extraction. Enhancing the value of this land poses a risk of predation by elites and encroachment, leading to the displacement of local communities and exacerbating the vulnerability of the most disadvantaged. 45 Landscape restoration projects might change well-established local land use patterns, potentially sparking disputes over access, use, and tenure rights. PES schemes could intensify competition for specific ecosystem services, leading to heightened tensions among different stakeholder groups. The immediate and long-term benefits derived from nature-based interventions might not be distributed evenly across the territories and among communities. This in turn may cause certain groups to perceive unequal distribution of benefits and/or exclusion from decision-making processes, which can breed new and fuel existing grievances and conflict. While CCDRs present payments for environmental services, land restoration together with other nature-based solutions (NBS) offer possible low-cost interventions that can help communities affected by ecosystem degradation and ecological decline and strengthen livelihood resilience. It is crucial to systematically adopt a conflict-sensitive and nuanced approach to implementing NBS for adaptation and mitigation in order to avoid exacerbating grievances and inequalities in geographies affected by FCV. Chapter 5. Conclusion and Recommendations Future CCDRs would benefit from analyzing the ways their recommended priority actions may create asymmetric impacts, trade-offs, and not only win-win scenarios in FCV-affected situations. These relate, for example, to the broadening of carbon taxes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, electricity subsidy removals, and raising water tariffs, as highlighted in the previous section (see Table 5). This points to the need to adopt an FCV-sensitive methodology in CCDRs that not only encourages the identification and modeling of trade-offs in an economic sense, but also proactively anticipates sustainable measures that could be implemented to protect vulnerable populations affected by FCV. As extreme climate variability and change will impact different sections of society and the natural resources they rely on, misinformed adaptation and mitigation actions and policies can negatively impact the most vulnerable communities as well as the multifaceted enabling environment for resilient, sustainable, and equitable development in FCS. A holistic impact assessment of the potential externalities linked to proposed actions in CCDRs can then account for possible direct and indirect effects of recommended actions. Such an approach would need to encompass social, economic, environmental, and political dimensions that meaningfully capture the full spectrum of the FCV dynamics. Delving into the dynamics related to competing interests over resource exploitation and allocation, unequal access, and social grievances related to resources would bring nuance to the pathways forward highlighted in CCDRs. It is paramount to the success of proposed actions and recommendations that explicit recognition is given to the unique context of each FCV-affected situation, considering challenges and opportunities in light of deep-rooted historical, cultural, and socio-economic factors. In support of that aim, strategies should be developed that can adapt to evolving circumstances and recognize the non-linear nature of FCV dynamics, for which econometric models may not always be well-suited. This is especially true given that FCV contexts can be highly volatile with the potential for rapid changes with profound consequences. 45 IEG (Independent Evaluation Group) (2021). The Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Nexus: An Evaluation of the World Bank’s Support for Sustainable and Inclusive Natural Resource Management (2009–19). Washington, DC: World Bank. 16 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS SECTION II. Questionnaire for Conflict-Sensitive Natural Resource Management in CCDR Development This annotated questionnaire is designed to help teams analyze and develop strategies and recommendations for approaching natural resource management in the context of climate change and development, with a particular focus on FCV contexts. The questions aim to uncover the complex interplay between natural resource dependency, climate vulnerability, conflict, and fragility, as well as to identify opportunities for building resilience and promoting inclusive development. 46 The questionnaire is divided into two sections—Context Analysis and Recommendation Design. The first is a series of macro-level guiding questions that are useful to inform CCDR development at a strategic level and key points for dialogue to assess development priorities and potential challenges. Recommendation Design questions prompt CCDR developers to consider how analyses will support the integration of these dynamics into the preparation of recommendations and enhance their conflict sensitivity. Note that this questionnaire does not aim to be prescriptive or serve as a checklist, but instead help CCDR teams ask the right questions to integrate conflict-sensitive and key natural resource management dimensions in their analyses. As such, this questionnaire is a complement to the questions and materials in Promoting FCV-Sensitive Climate Action in CCDRs: An Approach Note (forthcoming, Annex 1). CONTEXT ANALYSIS KEY CONCEPTS TO CONSIDER Determine Natural Resource Dependence: Environmental factors do not always stoke conflict directly, but can contribute to and exacerbate the existing • Is there high dependence on natural resources in the economy at the social, economic, and political challenges and stressors national and/or local levels? in FCV-affected contexts. Chapter 1 details the linkages • What percent of the national economy and of export earnings rely on between natural resource dependency, vulnerability, extractive industries as opposed to other sectors? and FCV risks. • Are large parts of the population reliant on natural resources for their livelihoods? Whether increased competition over natural resources escalates into conflict depends on TIP: Think through the following groups of natural resources: land (an several risk factors: high natural resource economic asset and intrinsically tied to culture, heritage, identity, and dependence, inequality and marginalization, the community), renewables (agriculture, crops, livestock, non-timber forest strength of institutions, and a recent history of products, and water), extractives (industrial and artisanal mining, conflict. 47 commercial forestry, oil, and gas). 46 This questionnaire is an adaptation of the “Natural Resource Management in FCV Questionnaire for Upstream Analytics and Downstream Operations” in Defueling Conflict: Environment and Natural Resources as a Pathway to Peace. It has been adapted and modified to fit the needs of CCDR developers. A comprehensive list of the resources that influenced and informed the questionnaire is available in the original report. 47 Detges, Adrien; Klingenfeld, Daniel; König, Christian; Pohl, Benjamin; Rüttinger, Lukas; Schewe, Jacob; Sedova, Barbora; Vivekananda, Janani (2020). 10 Insights on Climate Impacts and Peace: A Summary of What We Know. Berlin: adelphi; Potsdam: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). 17 SECTION II. QUESTIONNAIRE Availability and Quality of Natural Resources: When natural resource values change, whether a decrease in value due to degradation or an increase • How have the management, access, availability, and quality of these in value due to market demand or restoration, there resources changed? Have conflict, demographic growth, and is a risk of conflict when there is a lack of effective displacement, climate, or global markets changed natural resource governance or management framework. It is availability or value? important that CCDR decarbonization recommendations consider the constraints and needs Gender and Social Inclusion: at an institutional level (Chapter 2). • How do women and men access, use, and control natural resources in Reflect on women’s and men’s different natural resource this context? management roles and responsibilities and the added • How are these resources managed, and who is excluded? barriers for women. Consider how conflict-environment • How have conflict, environmental degradation, and climate-related linkages can affect traditional gender norms. shocks affected the livelihoods of different groups? How are they likely to affect these groups in the future? • What are some livelihood practices that can contribute to environmental degradation? Consider the impacts of CCDR recommendations on these livelihoods. Natural Resources and Conflict: Natural resource risks: – Increasing competition • Has a conflict analysis or fragility assessment been conducted at the local, national, or sectoral level? Does it include an assessment of – Triggering displacement underlying conflict factors and power dynamics, as well as a stakeholder – Causing tensions and grievances analysis? Refer to previous assessments done by the Bank (RRA, SCD, – Fueling and financing conflict peace and inclusion lenses), as well as UN and humanitarian agencies. – Being used as weapons of war • Were natural resources a factor in the conflict? – Being damaged by conflict • Have disputes over natural resource access, use, or control – Undermining peace contributed to triggering or perpetuating the conflict? How so? – Causing post-conflict aspirations and tensions • Were natural resources used in the conflict economy and as a basis for – Being used for illegal exploitation and trade coping mechanisms and survival? Consider the role of different natural resources in the conflict economy at the national, regional, and local Characteristics of natural resources that have an important scales. role in conflict dynamics and the onset, conduct, and ending • Do the military, armed groups, or criminal networks either informally or of conflicts include: formally control some aspect of the resource value chain they use to fund – Type of natural resource (renewable, non-renewable, land) themselves? – Energy provision (fuel vs. non-fuel) – Spatial distribution (point vs. diffuse) Gender and Social Inclusion: – Distance to main governmental control (e.g., the capital) • How engaged are affected individuals and communities in the – Market value (Ringterink (2020) found that as international management of or decisions about land and natural resources? resource prices rose, the intensity of violence increased • Are there traditional conflict resolution and/or resource management in resource-rich subnational areas, but not on a national mechanisms in place to empower meaningful stakeholder level) 48 participation? To what extent are these inclusive and representative? – Lootability (market value, ease of extraction, high-value- • When conflicts linked to natural resources arise, who are the actors per-weight) responsible for resolving them and what are their processes? Who has – Characteristics of the extraction process (scale, participated, and who has been excluded from conflict resolution? What impacts on local livelihoods) were the outcomes? – Actors involved in the extraction (winners and losers in • How can CCDR recommendations strengthen these mechanisms to be resource ownership, access, and use) 48 Rigterink, Anouk S. (2020). ”Diamonds, Rebel’s and Farmer’s Best Friend: Impact of Variation in the Price of a Lootable, Labor-intensive Natural Resource on the Intensity of Violent Conflict.“ Journal of Conflict Resolution, 64(1), 90-126. 18 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS resilient in the face of scarcity, changes to the natural resource base, as well as changes to social dynamics? TIP: Remember that conflict can ensue over scarce or abundant natural resources. For example, abundance of a natural resource at a local scale can instigate conflict and competition over its control if it is a high-value, globally scarce good. Read more about the dynamics associated with specific natural resources in Chapter 3. Climate Change and Conflict: Climate-conflict risks: • How does climate change affect existing conflict/fragility dynamics? – Natural resource competition/conflict What are the knock-on impacts that can exacerbate climate-conflict – Horizontal and vertical grievances (between communities, risks? herders and farmers; local actors and the state; neighboring states) • Are there specific regions, groups, communities, or economies that are particularly exposed to climate change-related stressors? – Real and perceived inequality and exclusion, including elite capture • How does climate change exacerbate pre-existing inequalities and the exclusion of certain groups? – Low state capacity and authority • How have conflict, environmental degradation, and climate-related – Limited provision of basic services to the population shocks affected the livelihoods of different groups? How are they likely – Poverty and low socioeconomic development to affect these groups in the future? Take into account their coping – Livelihood insecurity strategies. – Volatile food prices – Demographic challenges (population growth, migration, TIP: Use a gender and social inclusion lens by thinking through how different displacement) groups of men, women, boys, and girls based on ethnicity, socio-economic status, age, religious association, and race are affected by climate-related risks. – Disasters which cause grievances and challenge governance – Urban-rural divide • How do climate change and conflict challenge the ability of the – Unintended, negative impacts of climate change government to fulfill its role? interventions (Chapter 4) • How is the government responding to the situation? What is the impact of their response? Consider institutional and governmental Consider the magnifying effect of multiple levels of coping capacities. marginalization (e.g., women who are also part of vulnerable ethnic minorities) and identify the most resource-dependent. TIP: Lack of government responsiveness to segments of the population can increase the risk of instability. Humanitarian and civil society agencies can Impacts may vary between: provide valuable insights and data to consider such populations. – Highlands vs. plains/coastal areas – Rural communities vs. urban areas – Resource-dependent Indigenous peoples and local communities – Gender – Vulnerable groups Development Priorities: • How can peacebuilding priorities be maximized through climate adaptation and mitigation? See how these priorities intersect with natural resource management in Chapter 1, Table 2. • What are the opportunities to generate peace dividends and incentives for cooperation through natural resources? Consider land and property rights and improvements in livelihoods, governance, and the economy. • Are there opportunities to support sustainable livelihoods and enhance community resilience? Identify ways to change the inequitable distribution of resources, particularly if the direct use of natural resources is critical to livelihoods in the area of interest. 19 SECTION II. QUESTIONNAIRE • What causes of conflict and fragility can climate change adaptation and mitigation address? Consider what mediates climate and security risks: – Gender equality and social inclusion of all groups, including vulnerable ones – Participation, transparency, accountability in the governance of natural resources and in the decision-making of climate policies – Mobility with dignity – Social cohesion (horizontally between communities and vertically between local and traditional governance to national governance) – Access to sustainable livelihood opportunities and public services – Institutions for conflict management – Equitable distribution of benefits RECOMMENDATION DESIGN KEY CONCEPTS TO CONSIDER Localized Approach: • What are the environmental risks and opportunities in different geographies around the country? Consider the conflict intensity and what opportunities are feasible based on the reality on the ground. Delve into conflict, natural resources, and climate nexus issues discussed in the context analysis to understand trends at the local level. • Identify the existence of conflict economies that may impact recommendations related to productive activities. • What has been the relationship between conflict and land-use change in the area of interest before, during, and after the conflict? • Are there militias/criminal groups operating in the area of interest? Have they used natural resources to fund themselves, inspire grievances against the state, or control local populations? • Do some communities have historic grievances against the state? Consider the presence and relations between territorial authorities as well as between the state and the region. • Are there groups who are particularly vulnerable to natural resource changes in this area? TIP: According to the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), the programs that have yielded the largest benefits environmentally and socially are those where both threatened areas and vulnerable resource users were carefully identified. Chapter 1 mentions different tools and methodologies used by CCDR teams to highlight the differentiated exposure and vulnerability of territories and people to climate risks. Risk Management: Common triggers of natural resource conflicts that could be • How might CCDR recommendations interact with the conflict context? caused by recommendations: • How could recommendations worsen conflicts or spark new ones? – Rising grievances between the haves and the have- • How might conflict affect a recommendation’s success? nots (real or perceived) • How can these risks be monitored and managed? – Changing natural resource values and availability (whether an increase or decrease) • How are different groups/stakeholders likely to perceive – Elite capture recommendations? Could differences in perception potentially lead to violence? Who benefits and who “loses” from a recommendation? – Exclusion from decision-making or benefits • What are the underlying values and attitudes about gender that may drive Key pathways by which conflict and fragility can gender inequalities? How might these inequalities affect impact impact the feasibility of recommendations: recommendations and how might recommendations affect these – Physical insecurity values and attitudes? – Social conflict and mistrust – Difficulties hiring staff 20 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS • Do CCDR recommendations related to climate policies take into – Economic drivers–illicit trade of natural resources, account the presence of refugees and internally displaced persons? resource competition driving conflict, currency depreciation TIP: Think through how a recommendation might fuel social tensions and – Political fragility and weak governance–corruption, conflict at the household level, at the community level, at the national level, limited financial and institutional capacity, land between conflict parties, between minority and majority groups, etc. tenure issues Unintended consequences can include exacerbating various forms of gender-based – Coping strategies violence (GBV) (intimate partner violence [IPV], sexual assault and rape, – Conflict between IDPs/refugees and local early/forced marriage, sexual abuse and exploitation) and intensifying exclusion communities and conflict dynamics. Chapter 2 highlights the importance of identifying • Does the government have the resources (e.g. financial, technical, existing institutional limitations, while Chapters 4 labor) to enforce the decarbonization and climate adaptation and 5 focus on anticipating the negative solutions recommended? Is a sequential reform strategy needed to externalities of adaptation and mitigation measures strengthen the practicality of the recommendations? recommended in CCDRs. Stakeholder Engagement: Think about marginalized and resource-dependent groups who may not be • How can stakeholder engagement practices be used as a tool welcome in traditional resource management throughout the development of the CCDR to ensure the inclusion of structures or recognized by the government. perspectives from vulnerable groups, that recommendations are implementable, and address core development and climate Take an inclusive and people-centric approach: challenges? – Adopt an intersectional lens • How can the selection of stakeholders be informed by a conflict – Understand and access difficult-to-reach analysis (e.g., account for divisions along ethnic, political, or social populations in need by partnering with lines)? humanitarian agencies and local actors, including • What lessons have been learned from previous attempts to engage women and youth groups stakeholders? How can they inform CCDR development? – Build in an iterative participatory approach/ • Have you considered the ways in which mechanisms for engagement can feedback mechanism to inform implementation either help ease tensions or exacerbate them? and course correct as needed Gender and Social Inclusion: • Has there been an analysis of exclusion dynamics in the sectors of interest? • Are measures incorporated to remove barriers to the participation of people most involved in the conflict issues and who may feel threatened to engage in the development processes? (e.g., victims of violence from minority ethnicities in an ethnic conflict, women who suffer from gender-based violence) • Are gender-differentiated needs, preferences, knowledge, and roles within a community taken into account? 21 NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, FRAGILITY, AND CONFLICT ISSUES: GUIDANCE NOTE FOR CCDRS ANNEX 1: Insights from Promoting FCV-Sensitive Climate Action in CCDRs: An Approach Note Promoting FCV-Sensitive Climate Action in CCDRs: An Approach Note (forthcoming) provides practical steps for integrating FCV considerations into CCDRs, as well as detailed resources and tools to support that aim. This includes a framework for tailoring FCV programming to different contexts grouped by the common challenges they face; for each group, the note details how climate and FCV issues impact climate action and the opportunities and actions that exist for integrating FCV-sensitivity as part of CCDRs. Additionally, the note includes a repository of sector-specific guidelines, reports, and databases. The steps and corresponding questions are outlined below: 1. Consider how to identify and address interactions between climate and FCV in country profiling and background sections of the CCDR - What steps have the team taken to map the root causes of FCV and their contributions to climate vulnerability? - Does the CCDR highlight regions and social groups most vulnerable to climate and FCV-related threats? - Does the CCDR describe how climate and FCV-related threats are likely to compound wider sectoral risks? 2. Accounting for caveats in modeling climate and FCV interactions - Has the team sought to factor in FCV-related dynamics into CCDR models where possible? - Does the CCDR explicitly refer to the caveats in addressing FCV-related threats within models used to identify and prioritize climate investments and actions? 3. A. Ensuring CCDR recommendations are FCV sensitive - Do CCDR recommendations abide by the principle of ‘do no harm’ and have they been screened for potential maladaptation? o Do adaptation and mitigation priorities in the CCDR have the potential to further exacerbate drivers of FCV? What actions have been put in place to ensure adaptation and mitigation interventions do not further entrench existing grievances, inequalities, and power imbalances? o What are the spillovers from proposed climate actions on other relevant sectors (including interacting health, environment, or FCV-related threats)? Do cross-sectoral spillovers have the potential to aggravate the root causes of FCV? o Have the team considered the consequences of future escalation in FCV-related challenges for proposed CCDR recommendations (both in the short- and long-term)? Where relevant, have CCDR teams sought to ensure that proposed climate actions are adaptive and responsive to changing risks and dynamics over time? o Have the CCDR team considered how proposed climate actions may result in differentiated outcomes for different people and places – i.e. who are the potential winners and losers? - Do CCDR recommendations consider the needs and capacities of regions and social groups most vulnerable to climate and FCV-related threats? o Will proposed climate actions disproportionately benefit or harm certain regions or social groups, and how can these distributional impacts be addressed? 22 ANNEX I: INSIGHTS FROM PROMOTING FCV-SENSITIVE CLIMATE ACTION IN CCDRS APPROACH NOTE o How can CCDR teams ensure that recommended climate actions are aligned with the needs and priorities of vulnerable regions and social groups, and that they are not imposed externally? o Have CCDR teams sought to include the perspectives and voices from vulnerable regions and social groups in the prioritization of climate actions? o What are the potential impacts of climate actions on gender equality and women's empowerment, and how can they be addressed? o How can CCDR teams ensure that recommended climate actions are sustainable and do not perpetuate existing inequalities and power imbalances? - Have climate actions that also address root causes of FCV and generate positive impacts for peacebuilding alongside been prioritized? B. Tailoring climate actions to different FCV contexts - Does the CCDR account for the unique FCV challenges and needs of the country in question? 23