MAY 2024 2024/132 A KNOWLEDGE NOTE SERIES FOR THE ENERGY & EXTRACTIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE Net Zero Energy by 2060: Charting the Path of Europe and Central Asia toward a Secure and Sustainable Energy Future The bottom line. In the long term, both energy security and decarbonization in the region will depend on substantial increases in national climate ambitions. Achieving those increases will depend, in turn, on equally substantial increases in investment in low-carbon technologies, accompanied by timely policies and regulatory measures. The World Bank has developed a whole-energy-system model—data driven, technology rich, and bottom-up—to project optimal least-cost pathways for Europe and Central Asia to achieve a net zero energy target by 2060. This Live Wire is based on a report published in March 2024 (World Bank and ESMAP 2024). Since 2022, the European Union (EU) has taken steps to improvements, increased deployment of renewables, diver- reduce dependency on imports of fossil fuels and accelerate sification of gas imports, and gas-saving measures brought the development of alternate sources of energy through the gas stocks to a comfortable level by December 2023. The REPowerEU plan. Following the EU model, several countries European Union’s success sets a good example for the ECA in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region region. have begun their own efforts to promote energy security and diversify energy sources. The first part of this Live Wire briefly reviews the short-term energy security outlook. The second part presents the vision The EU’s efforts to scale up renewables are bearing fruit. The of the Net Zero 2060 scenario for the region, supported by International Energy Agency estimated in December 2022 model-based insights into what it will take to decarbonize that the EU’s gas supply shortfall for 2023 had already been the region. The World Bank model is described in box 1. halved—to less than 30 billion cubic meters (bcm)—through the accelerated use of renewables and heat pumps, along The countries of the ECA region make up 6.3 percent of the with energy-saving measures and investments in infra- world’s population, 7 percent of world GDP (2019), nearly 10 structure. An ongoing commitment to energy efficiency percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, and 16 per- cent of fossil fuel extractions. The 23 countries are divided Szilvia Doczi is a senior energy economist in the Europe and Central Asia region at the World Bank. Authors Co-authors are acknowledged at the end of this brief. 2 Net Zero Energy in ECA by 2060 into seven subregions: Central Asia, the Caucasus, the EU4, Limited availability of underground natural gas storage (a Russia and Belarus, Türkiye, Ukraine and Moldova, and the critical infrastructure) exacerbates exposure to gas supply Western Balkans.1 shocks in parts of the ECA region. The Western Balkans and EU4 countries are especially vulnerable. There storage cover Is there a risk of shortages of gas and is 12 percent and 19 percent of consumption, respectively, electricity in the region over the next few much less than the average for the European Union (25 per- years? cent). Türkiye and Central Asia have even lower storage cover—7 percent and 8 percent of consumption, respectively. Yes, the region is still vulnerable to seasonal These vulnerabilities make countries dependent on timely demand and supply shocks. The solution depends imports of gas supplies, especially during the peak winter on diversification of sources and a commitment to period. efficiency The region’s energy system is vulnerable to supply shocks In the short term, Central Asia faces a tightening gas sup- as well as to seasonal demand shocks arising from summer ply balance and some difficult choices. Central Asia has droughts and heat waves and winter cold spells. The Western been a large net exporter of gas, notably to China. Rapidly Balkans and Central Asia are especially vulnerable to poten- growing demand within the entire subregion, combined tial natural gas shortages because of their infrastructure with stagnating production (especially in Kazakhstan and deficits and low levels of cross-border trade. Uzbekistan), limit the ability to meet export commitments to China and simultaneously to satisfy peak winter demand The response to both supply and demand problems can be summed up in two words: first, diversification of sources of infrastructure and supply, including gas supplies and types of Natural gas and coal subsidies can undermine energy (with an emphasis on renewables); and second, effi- ciency in the use of energy.2 The latter can be achieved by energy security and exacerbate energy technical and market means, notably infrastructure devel- crises in parts of the ECA region, while also opment, changes in technology, and reforms of electricity markets and subsidies. undermining decarbonization efforts. 1. The ECA subregions are made up as follows: The countries of the Central Asia subregion are Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmen- at home. Russia’s proposed gas union with Kazakhstan and istan, and Uzbekistan. The Caucasus subregion is made up of Armenia, Uzbekistan could improve Central Asia’s natural gas balance Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The EU4 includes Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland, and in the short term, although the poor state of their Soviet-era Romania. The Western Balkans are made up of Albania, Bosnia and Herze- pipeline infrastructure poses uncertainties. In the medium govina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. term improving regional gas and electricity trade in Central 2 Storage can be thought of as a form of diversification, whereby stored Asia and increasing gas imports from Turkmenistan, along gas substitutes as needed for gas delivered through pipelines. Unfor- with domestic uptake of renewables, could also be used to tunately, limited availability of underground gas storage exacerbates replace coal in Kazakhstan, fill the emerging supply gap in exposure to gas supply shocks in parts of the region. Türkiye, Central Asia, Uzbekistan, and meet growing demand across Central Asia. the Western Balkans, and the EU4 countries all have storage cover below the average for the EU (25 percent). These vulnerabilities make countries The reduction of pipeline gas flows between Russia and dependent on timely imports of gas supplies (notably via pipelines from the EU are likely to affect Russia’s natural gas production. neighboring countries), especially during the peak winter period. Countries Production shrank in 2022 as pipeline exports to the EU in Central Asia suffered gas shortages and blackouts in recent winters. were reduced. In a stress test scenario in which Russian gas is Ukraine, by contrast, has vast underground storage capacity; it could fully discontinued to Europe (including the EU4, the Western become a valuable energy security asset for the broader European market, Balkans, Ukraine, and Moldova) localized gas supply crises including for the European countries within the ECA region. could arise, especially during the next few winters. Russian Net Zero Energy in ECA by 2060 3 pipeline gas flows to Türkiye have continued uninterrupted What must be done to achieve a throughout the energy crisis, but Türkiye’s ability to absorb sustainable, secure, and affordable significantly more gas from Russia is limited. energy system in the longer term? The region’s current climate ambitions must be greatly Because Russia’s near-term options to redirect gas from its expanded traditional European markets to Asia are limited, Russian domestic production in 2025 could be 150–160 bcm lower With current ambitions, the region will not reach net zero than it was in 2021. This loss of supply is sizable, comparable emissions in time to help limit the global temperature in volume to the total gas consumption of the entire ECA increase to the 1.5°C target called for in the 2015 Paris region excluding Russia (270 bcm) and roughly equivalent Agreement on climate change. to the combined 2021 exports of liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the United States (200 bcm), two of the world’s Fourteen of the region’s 23 countries have not yet set net three largest producers. zero targets. Nine countries have established targets; five of them (Armenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Kyrgyz Republic, Natural gas and coal subsidies can undermine energy secu- and Romania) have chosen a 2050 target for achieving a rity and exacerbate energy crises in parts of the region, while net zero economy. Türkiye aims to reach the goal by 2053. also undermining decarbonization efforts. Energy subsidies Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine have set a more distant reach up to 2–19 percent of GDP in some ECA countries. target of 2060. Subsidy and tariff reforms require long-term planning and a safety net to protect the vulnerable population, but they The rest of this note presents the vision of the Net Zero 2060 can be well aligned with decarbonization efforts. For exam- scenario for the region, based on a model designed by the ple, investments in energy efficiency can offset the effects World Bank to assess what is needed to achieve a balanced, of subsidy removal by lowering households’ gas consump- sustainable, and low-emissions energy system (box 1). tion while improving heating comfort levels and reducing underheating prevalent in the Western Balkans and Central Asia. Box 1. Methodology of the World Bank’s energy model The World Bank ECA energy model is a multiregional integrated assessment model covering the global energy system. It provides a detailed representation of fuel extraction and transformation, power and heat generation, and three energy end-use sectors (transport, buildings, and industry). The model was developed in KINESYS (Knowledge-based Investigation of Energy System Scenarios), a bottom-up, technology-rich, least-cost optimiza- tion model developed using IEA-ETSAP’s TIMES model generator (Loulou et al. 2016). KINESYS provides a rich representation of existing and future demand and supply technologies, including invest- ment and operational costs, efficiencies, and learning rates, to account for reductions in technology cost over time. All technologies included in the model are either already commercially available or at a relatively advanced stage of development—that is, past the demonstration and prototype phase, according to the IEA Clean Energy Technology Guide (IEA 2023b). (continued) 4 Net Zero Energy in ECA by 2060 Box 1. Continued The World Bank ECA energy model incorporates estimates of the existing stocks of energy-related equipment in all sectors (such as the number of vehicles in transport, production capacity in industry, and floor space in buildings). It includes a wide variety of traded commodities and a detailed representation of the power and heat sectors down to the generation unit level. Energy service demands, such as steel demand in industry or demand for automobile travel, are important inputs. They are estimated based on historical data and exogenous socioeconomic drivers. The main socioeconomic drivers for estimating demand are economic growth, provided by the World Bank’s global macroeconomics team, and UN population growth projections. A social discount rate of 7 percent is assumed. The model is calibrated to 2019 energy balances, because disruptions to the global energy system during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 and the subsequent energy crisis made later data points unreliable as a basis for long term decarbonization analysis. To assess the short- and medium-term impacts of recent upheavals on energy markets and energy security, sensitivities were calculated (such as a stress test reflecting the discon- tinuation of Russian gas flows to Europe). Historical energy supply, transformation, and demand are based on IEA energy and economic databases; additional data from a wide range of sector-specific external sources inform and improve the data set where possible. During model development, the modeling team made significant extensions to the original model to incorporate ECA-specific characteristics and reflect World Bank experts’ views on key input parameters, cross-border infra- structure development plans, climate and energy targets, and policies. The Net Zero 2060 scenario laid out in the model presents an demand side, EVs for transport and heat pumps for build- ambitious but feasible least-cost pathway for ECA to decar- ings, accompanied by energy efficiency measures. These bonize its energy system by 2060 while helping to maintain technologies offer no-regret investments in decarbonization. a global temperature rise of less than 2°C (figure 1). According Beyond 2035, however, uncertainties are higher. to the model results, if carbon neutrality is to be achieved in a least-cost manner by 2060, the power systems of the 23 On the supply side, the share of electricity in the energy ECA countries must be net zero by 2040; carbon neutrality mix under Net Zero 2060 almost triples (from 16 percent in of commercial buildings must be achieved by 2050; and 2019 to 47 percent in 2060) as heating/cooling, transport, carbon neutrality of residential buildings must be achieved and certain industrial processes are increasingly electrified. by 2055. Decarbonization of transport and industry is the Increasingly competitive renewable energy generation most challenging aspect; even in 2060 these sectors will rely enables countries to increase the share of domestic energy on carbon removal technologies for their decarbonization. resources and reduce their dependence on fossil fuel imports. Over the next 10 years ECA countries can make immense On the demand side, energy efficiency, technology advances, progress toward net zero power, heating, and transport and behavioral change have the potential to cut total final using existing technologies, the most important of which energy consumption by 28 percent by 2060 compared with are either already mature and cost-effective (even relative the reference case. High growth in the use of electric vehicles to fossil fuels) or are expected to become so in ECA within (EVs) from 2035 drives the energy efficiency and electrifica- 10 years. These include, on the supply side, the renewables tion of transport in the Net Zero 2060 scenario, creating a needed for the power sector’s decarbonization and, on the market for over 300 million EVs by 2060 (mostly cars, but Net Zero Energy in ECA by 2060 5 Figure 1. Actual and projected energy-related greenhouse gas emissions by sector in Europe and Central Asia under the Net Zero 2060 scenario, 2019–60 4,000 Direct air capture 3,500 Industry CCS Transport Residential 3,000 Electricity Mining Industry (non-energy) Industry 2,500 Hydrogen Energy Commercial 2,000 MtCO2/yr Agriculture 1,500 1,000 500 0 2019 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 -500 Source: World Bank and ESMAP 2024. also millions of light trucks, heavy trucks, and buses), in com- Electrification and heat pumps, alongside bioenergy, are bination with a shift to more public transport and new fuel a cornerstone of decarbonization in the region’s buildings. efficiency standards. Strong uptake of heat pumps is expected in the Net Zero 2060 scenario from 2035 (in the absence of carbon pricing Energy efficiency already saves 15 percent of projected resi- or incentives), with a possibility of reaching 100 million house- dential buildings’ energy demand in the reference scenario, hold units by 2060. in which it is included because it is cost-effective without emission constraints and therefore represents a no-regrets Enabling policies and measures on the demand side are a investment for every country. Energy efficiency keeps energy prerequisite for achieving the energy savings and emissions consumption in check amid rising demand. It also stabilizes reductions outlined in the Net Zero 2060 scenario. Examples energy bills during the energy transition by lowering house- include national programs and policies, financing, incentives, hold consumption by volume. and outreach, tightening energy performance standards for 6 Net Zero Energy in ECA by 2060 buildings and equipment and phasing out fossil technol- ogies, such as internal combustion engines, and coal and Box 2. Decarbonization promises gas boilers for residential heating. Combined with targeted substantial benefits compensation mechanisms for vulnerable populations, these kinds of measures enable the deployment, at scale, of • Greater energy security by reducing depen- key efficiency technologies. dence on fossil fuel imports, increasing electricity trade, and making the power system more Decarbonization carries immense benefits (box 2). It is critical resilient using advanced technologies to ensuring sustainable growth and energy security in ECA • Greater competitiveness through energy while simultaneously creating new opportunities for green efficiency, innovation, and improved productivity industries and sectors. Following a green growth pathway • Stable and cost reflective energy bills through can reduce fossil fuel imports, lowering the bills of importing full cost recovery and energy efficiency countries. Doing so would help Türkiye save $146 billion and • Job creation in new green markets. Uzbekistan $67 billion by 2060 (World Bank 2022b, 2023b). Decarbonization can also help safeguard the vulnerable by stabilizing or in some cases lowering monthly household energy bills, if energy tariff reforms are complemented with The installation of wind turbines, solar PV modules, and heat investments in building renovation and more efficient tech- pumps should have a particularly marked effect on employ- nologies to reduce energy consumption.3 ment. In the Net Zero 2060 Scenario for ECA, employment in renewable energy generation could grow from around The energy transition is expected to result in net job creation 200,000 job-years currently to more than 900,000 by 2040. globally, as job losses in fossil fuel industries are more than offset by gains in industries using renewables and other ener- What are the prospects for phasing down gy-transition technologies (IRENA 2022b). Between 2019 and coal, gas, and oil? 2022, clean energy employment grew by 15 percent and now represents around half of the energy employment in most All will show substantial declines, with coal fading the regions of the world (IEA 2022e), while fossil fuel–related fastest jobs decreased by 4 percent. Between 2022 and 2030 it is Phasing down coal is the most effective way to reach cli- estimated that a net zero pathway would create 30 million mate objectives. It also reduces pollution and its economic jobs, while job losses amount to some 13 million, a net gain costs, with those cost savings typically outweighing the costs of 17 million (IEA 2022e). Net impacts vary strongly by country of stranded assets. and region, however, as shown by recent evidence from the World Bank’s Country Climate and Development Reports Coal is the largest source of fossil fuel emissions in the region, (World Bank 2022b, 2022c). representing 42 percent of all emissions in ECA (excluding Russia). Without action, it is set to provide 25–30 percent of the region’s energy for decades. In the least-cost regional In the next 10 years ECA countries can decarbonization pathway reported in the full report (World make immense progress toward net zero Bank and ESMAP 20240, 90 percent of existing coal capac- ities are phased out in the 21 ECA countries by 2030. This is power, heating, and transport using existing equivalent to 31 gigawatts (GW) of coal assets being retired technologies. early by 2030, ahead of their average useful life of 40 years. Without a swift phasing down of coal use, ECA will not be able to decarbonize. 3. The removal of fossil fuel subsidies in certain ECA countries could drive up energy prices for some end users in the short term. Net Zero Energy in ECA by 2060 7 The renewable sources of energy (solar, wind, hydro, and So what are the missing ingredients? bioenergy including biomass and biofuels) that are replacing More investment, the maturation of promising coal are already cost-effective in most ECA countries or will technologies, and carefully crafted policies can bring become so in the next 10 years. In the Net Zero 2060 path- ECA to net zero energy by 2060 way, solar-based power generation grows five-fold by 2030, and wind-based power generation nearly doubles. The use The total regional investment needed between 2023 and of bioenergy doubles by 2050. Another clean energy source 2060 to achieve the Net Zero 2060 goal amounts to $4.7 also plays an important role: Nuclear power generation dou- trillion (3.9 percent of regional GDP). The additional amount bles by 2035. needed compared with the reference scenario is $872 bil- lion (0.7 percent of GDP). This estimate is at the lower end Gas consumption may already have peaked in ECA, but gas of the range presented in Insights from World Bank Country will nevertheless play an essential role in the region for at Climate and Development Reports Covering 42 Economies least another two decades. Natural gas declines from more (World Bank 2023).4 The power sector accounts for the larg- than 40 percent of the primary energy supply in 2019 to est share of the additional investment needed: The Net Zero 16 percent in 2060 in the Net Zero 2060 scenario. At least 2060 investments for the sector ($934 billion) are $535 billion through 2060, even amid a transition to net zero emissions, higher than in the reference scenario. Growing cross-border it will be used with carbon capture and storage to balance gas and electricity trade and the decarbonization of industry the power system and as fuel and feedstock in industry. add more than $180 billion to the Net Zero pathway’s invest- ment needs. Under the Net Zero 2060 scenario, gas production in the region is projected to fall more than consumption, eroding Under both the reference and Net Zero 2060 scenarios, more the region’s traditional gas surplus by 2060. The declining than $1.2 trillion must be invested in improving residential production of gas in the region is driven by Russia’s perma- buildings and appliances, including heat pumps. However, nent loss of its European export market—and with it, more the same heating and cooling comfort levels are achieved than 200 bcm of gas supply potential over time. In Central at much lower operating costs in the Net Zero scenario, as Asia, production drops by half between 2019 and 2060 in these investments reduce energy demand compared with the absence of new discoveries. the reference scenario. The transport sector requires the greatest investment in both scenarios—more than $1.4 trillion. Oil use peaks by 2035 in the Net Zero 2060 scenario. Oil use in transport drops to a 9 percent share of transport fuels Insufficient investment means that the ECA region could miss by 2060, down from 90 percent in 2019. Reliance on oil for out on the opportunities the energy transition offers. Most of aviation, trucking, and shipping persists, as these subsectors the investments in the net zero pathway will be from the are the hardest to abate, even with intense application of private sector (60–90 percent of all investments), as tech- clean transport technologies (biofuels, hydrogen, ammonia, nologies mature and costs decline. Such investments would methanol, synthetic fuels, and EVs) and a shift to more public yield an economic stimulus for ECA countries. transport. Less-mature technologies (including low-carbon hydrogen and carbon removal) must develop further and offer higher degrees of certainty beyond 2035. Clean hydrogen could For ECA to reach net zero energy by 2060, account for 10–13 percent of final consumption in ECA by less-mature technologies (including low- 2060, depending on the development of end-use markets, especially transport. carbon hydrogen and carbon removal) must develop further and offer higher degrees of 4. In the synthesis report (World Bank 2023), the additional investment need certainty beyond 2035. for the energy transition ranged from 1 percent of GDP for upper-middle-in- come countries to 10 percent for lower-income countries. 8 Net Zero Energy in ECA by 2060 But the region’s pipeline of clean hydrogen projects under benefit fossil-fuel-based activities. Policy reviews are needed construction or in various stages of planning (at 3.8 mega- in the following areas: tonnes [Mt]) represents only a small fraction of the capacity needed to meet net zero goals (18 Mt by 2050 and 44 Mt 3 National decarbonization programs (policies, financing, by 2060). More than half of the region’s planned capacity incentives, and outreach) (2 Mt) is attributable to a single megaproject in Kazakhstan.5 3 Sectoral decarbonization strategies (including net zero targets) Unless carbon prices rise substantially, however, green hydro- 3 Bans and phase-outs of fossil technologies gen production in the region is likely to remain uneconomic 3 Targets for renewable energy, hydrogen, and carbon without subsidies for at least another two decades. Clean capture and storage hydrogen production in 2060 is dominated by renewable 3 Dedicated funding for key clean technologies, such as (green) hydrogen in the Net Zero 2060 pathway. heat pumps and electric vehicles 3 Energy-efficiency targets nationally and within sectors New policies and dynamic market developments can drive 3 Innovation funds; incentives for R&D the increase in investment needed to achieve the Net Zero 3 Talent and skill development programs for clean 2060 goal. Additional policies will be needed to support technologies decarbonization and to offset existing measures designed to 3 Reforms of subsidies and tariffs 3 Review of regulations affecting electricity markets, carbon 5. Clean (or low-carbon) hydrogen-based fuels come in two forms. Blue markets, and emissions trading systems hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels coupled with carbon dioxide capture 3 Institutional and governance reforms. and storage. Green (or renewable) hydrogen is produced by water elec- trolysis using renewable electricity. Low-carbon hydrogen-based fuels also Figure 2 puts the policies and milestones specific to the include hydrogen derivatives such as ammonia and methanol; they are energy sector in context. referred to as hydrogen in this report. Figure 2. Energy sector milestones on the pathway to Net Zero Energy 2060 in the Europe and Central Asia region EVs = >270m passenger 2750 2,750 EV scale-up from Green H2 for long-distance cars, >40m light trucks, 2035 freight transport, 2040–45 >7m heavy trucks Blended biofuels Gas growth in Hydrogen growth in Electricity doubles 175 MtCO2 2250 2,250 Fuel economy standards industry to 2045 industry from 2045 in industry by 2050 captured in and more efficient public industry in 2060 transport Commercial 1750 1,750 buildings reach Building renovations total net zero in 2050 No new coal or gas boilers 0.5–2% of stock each year MtCO2 1250 1,250 100m households Heat pumps’ share No new coal plants >14 GW storage by 2035, with heat pumps in residential after 2024 >29 GW by 2040 buildings = 45–95% Power is net zero 750 750 More ambitious 2030 RE capacity Solar + wind > 50% of by 2040–50 NDC targets triples by 2035 generation in 2040 DAC from 2050 Low-carbon 250 250 Decommissioning of Lignite phased Gas/bioenergy plants H2-based fuels > coal plants out, 2035–40 with CCS after 2035–40 10% of TFC cross-cutting Power / Cross-Cutting Buildings Industry Transport Agriculture -250 −250 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Source: World Bank analysis. Note: EVs = electric vehicles; m = million; MtCO2 = millions of tonnes of carbon dioxide; GW = gigawatt; NDC = Nationally Determined Contribution; RE = renewable energy; CCS = carbon capture and storage; H2 = hydrogen; DAC = direct air capture; TFC = total final energy consumption. Net Zero Energy in ECA by 2060 9 This Live Wire is based on Net Zero Energy by 2060: Charting the within the Bank. The lead author expresses her appreciation for Path of Europe and Central Asia toward a Secure and Sustainable her colleagues who co-authored the report, notably Akos Losz, Energy Future, published by the Energy Sector Management Amit Kanudia (model developer), Armin Mayer, Bobur Kodjaev, Assistance Program in early 2024. 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