UNION OF THE COMOROS 1 Table of Contents Transport Sector Background Note: Toward More Resilient Transport Networks ......... 4 Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 4 Current climate vulnerability and needed resilience of transport infrastructure ......................... 5 Climate resilience as a network – Strategic prioritization ............................................................ 7 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 8 Methodological Note..................................................................................................................... 8 List of Figures Figure A1. Accessibility from Moroni to Nioumachoua ........................................................................ 5 Figure A2. Port closure due to weather condition ................................................................................ 5 Figure A3. Road conditions in selected countries .............................................................................. 7 Figure A4. Comoros: Share of roads by condition .............................................................................. 7 Figure A5. Road network asset values ................................................................................................ 7 Figure A6. Resource needs for resilient roads .................................................................................... 7 Figure A7. Resilient port options for Boingoma.................................................................................. 7 Figure A8. Investment needs for ports and airports ........................................................................... 7 Figure A9. Estimated disruption costs at ports ................................................................................... 8 Figure A10. Estimated criticality of transport networks .................................................................... 8 Figure A11. Road network condition, 2021 ........................................................................................ 9 Figure A12. Required resource allocation ......................................................................................... 11 Figure A13. Projected road network quality ..................................................................................... 11 Figure A14. Road and maritime transport networks and local communities................................ 13 Figure A15. Road roughness and road user costs ............................................................................ 13 Figure A16. Throughput at Port Boingoma ....................................................................................... 14 Figure A17. Ferry passengers among the islands ............................................................................ 14 Figure A18. Estimated disruption costs at ports .............................................................................. 14 Figure A19. Distribution of estimated criticality ............................................................................... 14 Figure A20. Criticality of transport routes ......................................................................................... 15 Figure A21. Average disruption costs by road class ......................................................................... 15 List of Tables Table A1. Government road sector spending ...................................................................................... 9 Table A2. Government road sector spending .................................................................................... 10 Table A3. Underlying assumptions on maritime transport services ............................................... 13 Table A4. Average value of time for vehicle traffic........................................................................... 13 2 © 2025 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), collectively known as The World Bank Group, with external contributors. 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Because the World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given and all further permissions that may be required for such use (as noted herein) are acquired. The World Bank Group does not warrant that the content contained in this work will not infringe on the rights of third parties and accepts no responsibility or liability in this regard. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. 3 Transport Sector Background Note: Toward More Resilient Transport Networks Introduction 1. For small island states, like Comoros, maintaining reliable maritime and air transport connectivity is of vital importance. Comoros is an archipelago situated in the western Indian Ocean and largely depends on imports for many commodities, including food, oil products, construction materials and consumer goods. Intra-island connectivity is also important to assure food security and exploit growth opportunities within the country. Comoros has significant untapped growth opportunities, such as tourism and agrobusiness, all over the country, however, the domestic markets remain highly fragmented, leaving rural communities isolated. For instance, it takes 5 hours from Moroni to Nioumachoua Beach in Moheli, one of the most attractive tourist sites, although the flight duration between the two islands is only 30 minutes (Figure A1). Domestic flights are inefficient and often delayed or cancelled due to technical or climate reasons. Ferries and informal passenger boats may be cheaper but unsafe and highly susceptible to weather conditions. Poorly maintained roads add to trip time on both islands. 2. Basic transport infrastructure exists but is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events, without sufficient climate resilience built in. Each island of Comoros owns a primary port and an airport, but nearly all of them have capacity constraints. Port Boingoma, a primary port on Moheli Island, for instance, has a 70-meter wharf with a 2.4-meter depth that is only accessible to small vessels and is not accessible by passenger ferries or large freight ships. Because of the lack of breakwater and protection, the port was damaged by Cyclone Kenneth in April 2019 and further degraded by Cyclone Cheneso in January 2023. It is only operational for two working days per week, leading to repeated shortage of petroleum products and other daily consumption goods on the island. Comoros has a well-established road network, but many roads are located along the coastline and in flood-prone areas, and thus, susceptible to climate events. Cyclone Kenneth devastated the country’s road network, leaving many local communities isolated. 3. The poorly maintained transport infrastructure amplifies the country’s climate vulnerability, causing substantial socioeconomic losses even under the current climate conditions. The primary ports are often closed because of weather conditions. For instance, Port Boingoma was not operational for 60 days in 2023 (Figure A2). The landing sites (called secondary ports) for small passenger boat operations, such as Chindini and Hoani, are more susceptible because of the lack of proper infrastructure. The road network is also in poor condition, especially in rural areas, causing frequent transport disruptions and repeated shortage of food and other daily consumption goods in remote areas. More climate resilience needs to be built for not only preventing potential damages of infrastructure assets but also avoiding economic losses caused by transport disruptions due to the lack of resilience and redundancy. 4. Despite general agreement on investing more in climate resilience, available financial resources are limited to Comoros. Climate resilient infrastructure is costly. A global study estimated that incorporating resilience into construction of roads would increase costs by 3 percent to 23 percent (World Bank 2017). Unlike other infrastructure services, roads are public goods. Fiscal resources are limited in Comoros. Although there is a road fund mechanism based on fuel levies, it is outdated with little sustainability. Road fund revenues have fallen 20 percent over the last decade, because of inflation, exchange rate depreciation, and its disconnection from fuel consumption. 4 5. Objectives. Against the above background, this note examines (i) climate vulnerability and resilience of transport infrastructure, and (ii) potential economic benefits from redundancy and costs of transport disruptions. It will explore a feasible policy framework to build more climate resilience in transport infrastructure and operations, with a particular focus on the road subsector, while assuring the country’s macro fiscal sustainability. 6. Approach. Methodologically, two analytical tools are used: (a) a criticality analysis to identify critical transport links for which climate resilience is of particular importance and estimate potential economic costs of disruptions, and (b) a Road Network Evaluation Tool (RONET), which allows projecting the optimal resource allocation. Figure A1. Accessibility from Moroni to Figure A2. Port closure due to weather condition Nioumachoua Source: World Bank calculations Current climate vulnerability and needed resilience of transport infrastructure 7. The road network in Comoros is in poor condition and highly vulnerable to extreme climate events, such as cyclones, flooding and storm surge. The country owns a road network of 815 km with an asset value of some US$400 million, comprising 436 km of national roads, 282 km of regional roads, and 58 km of unclassified. According to the 2021 road survey data, about half of the roads are in poor or very poor condition, unfavorably compared with other countries in the region (c.f., 3 percent in Mauritius, 18 percent in Eswatini, and 32 percent in Lesotho) (Figure A3). The road conditions are particularly poor in rural areas (Figure A4). In recent years, the road network seems to have deteriorated for various external shocks, such as the COVID crisis and the country’s tight external and fiscal balances, accumulating a backlog of road investment and maintenance projects. 8. The lack of timely road maintenance and investment adds to climate vulnerability of the road network, causing extra damages of roads and resulting in additional reconstruction works. In 2019, Cyclone Kenneth devastated the country’s road network, including 62 km of primary roads, 16 km of regional roads, and 12 km of rural roads. This accounted for 10 percent of the total roads. Apart from the normal development investment in the sector, the reconstruction costs of these roads could exceed US$50 million, 10 times as much as the current average annual spending in the road sector (including both internal and external resources). Although the precise risk exposure is unknown because of the lack of data, the road network assets could be curtailed substantially by climate events. The current road network asset value is about US$400 million. Without proper maintenance 5 and investment (i.e., “Do Minimum” scenario), the asset value could be reduced by US$120 million over 10 years, even under normal circumstances (Figure A5). 9. To build more climate resilience in the road sector, more internal and external resources need to be mobilized, with a particular focus on timely maintenance works. Currently, Comoros spends on average US$5.4 million per year on road development and maintenance. The RONET estimates an additional resource of US$5-8 million would be needed to make the road network more resilient. Given the limited resources, a practical solution may be to focus on maintaining priority roads in good condition with high traffic.1 This strategy already costs US$12.4 million per year (Figure A6). To increase climate resilience, more resources would be needed. One of the potential measures to increase climate resilient of the network is to pave all roads (as currently required in theory) and maintain them well. This would cost US$17.5 million annually. However, such preemptive investment should be worth to stabilize the overall road condition over the long run, while containing investment and maintenance costs. Otherwise, the road asset value would be lost rapidly. 10. Climate resilient infrastructure investment is even more challenging in the maritime and air transport subsectors, disproportionally shouldering small countries, like Comoros. Ports and airports normally require significant upfront investment, even though their size and capacity are relatively small by global standards. All primary ports in Comoros, i.e., Ports of Moroni, Mutsamudu and Boingoma, have capacity constraints.2 Port Boingoma on Moheli Island is most constrained with a shallow draught and an inaccessible quay, without any port protection. Different investment options exist to improve climate resilience (Figure A7). To avoid extra adjustment costs and assure the infrastructure capacity for long-term economic growth, it is desirable to make a preemptive climate- smart investment. The cost climate resilience is substantial at about US$60 million despite its relatively modest traffic of about 16,300 tons of cargo per year.3 With this full-fledged resilience and protection, the port will be significantly resilient against strong waves and cyclones, while operating all year round (except for 20 days when severer weather happens). 11. Air transport is also highly unpredictable and vulnerable to climate conditions. Basic airport infrastructure exists; however, the quality of services is low, with many delays and cancelations.4 A recent domestic flight accident involving AB Aviation in February 2022 also added to serious safety and security concerns in the air transport sector. Significant investment is needed for airport infrastructure (terminals, safety equipment and runways) in Moheli and Mustamudu. Infrastructure investment needs are already significant even under normal circumstances. The latest national development plan, Plan Comores Emergent, which focuses on sustainable inclusive growth and climate resilience, estimates the investment needs for Anjouan and Fomboni Airports at US$20 million and US$38 million, respectively (Figure A8). 1 While the majority of traffic is carried by several major national roads, 60 percent of the road network carries fewer than 300 vehicles per day. 2 Port Moroni has a depth of only 4.5 meters and a wharf length of 80 meters, handling 300,000 tons per year, which account for 60 percent of the country’s total cargo. Large vessels cannot approach the port and have to anchor in the harbor and unload to a barge. Mutsamudu Port is the only deep seaport in the Comoros, with a 170-meter wharf and 9-meter depth. But it suffers from siltation of a harbor. 3 In close collaboration with other donors, the World Bank is supporting the rehabilitation of Port Boigoma with climate resilience design built in under the Comoros Interisland Connectivity Project. 4 Air transport is not affordable for many Comorians. Average fares are high at US$100–150 per trip, about 3 to 4 times higher than maritime transport fares. Booking and check-in operations are inefficient and unpredictable, adding a significant burden to travelers. 6 Figure A3. Road conditions in selected countries Figure A4. Comoros: Share of roads by condition Figure A5. Road network asset values Figure A6. Resource needs for resilient roads Figure A7. Resilient port options for Boingoma Figure A8. Investment needs for ports and airports Source: World Bank calculations Climate resilience as a network – Strategic prioritization 12. To improve climate resilience in transport, it is important to have redundancies in a system because the transport sector is a network industry. From the criticality point of view, interisland connectivity is the most important for Comoros. Port and airport services are by nature vulnerable to climate and weather conditions. The disruption costs of maritime transport services among the islands are substantial even under current circumstances, probably costing US$845,000 per year on the economy. This can help to justify costly upfront investment in port infrastructure, as in the Comoros Interisland Connectivity Project. It is essential to build redundancy in the transport system, for example, by having both primary and secondary ports, and ferry and small passenger boat services. 7 13. The road sector also requires more redundancy to improve climate resilience as a network. The average disruption costs are estimated at US$4,000 to US$283,000, depending on road class, with an average of US$155,000 per road. The criticality varies substantially among locations and is particularly high at major national roads, RN1, RN2, RN3, RN21, RN22, RN31 and RN32, which carry the vast majority of traffic in the country. Although it is difficult to assess how often these roads are disrupted, expected economic benefits from preventing from disruptions seems to exceed additional investment costs for climate resilience in the road sector. In the above, it is estimated that US$5 million per year would additionally be needed to make the road network more reliable. By focusing on critical priority roads, the costs can easily be justified. Figure A9. Estimated disruption costs at ports Figure A10. Estimated criticality of transport networks Source: World Bank calculations Conclusion 14. For small island states, like Comoros, maintaining reliable maritime and air transport connectivity is of vital importance. Comoros transport infrastructure is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. The climate vulnerability is further amplified by the currently poorly maintained infrastructure assets. In the current transport infrastructure management, there is no sustainability. Although everyone agrees that more investment is needed for climate resilient infrastructure, available financial resources are limited. Necessary climate resilient design is missing, and backlogs of maintenance works are accumulated. Methodological Note RONET analysis 15. The Road Network Evaluation Tools (RONET) is an Excel-based model for assessing the performance of road maintenance and rehabilitation policies. Using country-specific relationships among development and maintenance spending, road conditions and road user costs, it identifies an optimal development path with proper allocation of expenditures among different types of road works, such as recurrent maintenance, periodic maintenance, and rehabilitation, over time. 16. The Comoros road network covers 815 km over the three main islands, including national (404 km), regional (296 km), urban (54 km), and unclassified (61 km) roads (Figure A11). This translates into a road density of 43.1 km per 100 km2 of land, which is well above the regional average in Africa. According to national road standards, all classified roads are supposed to be paved by default, 8 but in reality, half have significantly deteriorated and are in need of reconstruction because of lack of maintenance. 17. The current RONET analysis uses data on 761 km of roads of which relevant data are available (Table A1). Average road project costs are calculated based on actual data from recent road projects in Comoros (Table A2). A major road rehabilitation work costs US$400,000–600,000 per km. Paving is one of the most important resilient measures in the road sector. Normally, paved roads are far more resilient than unpaved roads, although paving may not always be sufficient, without proper drainage capacity and timely maintenance. Figure A11. Road network condition, 2021 Source: World Bank calculations Table A1. Government road sector spending Road type International Roughness Index (m/km) Total < 2.5 (very 2.5–3.5 3.5–5.5 5.5–10.5 >10.5 (very good) (good) (fair) (poor) poor) National 44.0 31.8 162.6 155.1 10.5 404.0 Regional 2.6 25.1 78.6 142.7 46.9 296.0 Unclassified 0.0 2.8 25.4 30.6 2.3 61.0 Total 46.7 59.7 266.7 328.3 59.7 761.0 Source: World Bank calculations 9 Table A2. Government road sector spending Surface Road work class Road condition Road work type Unit cost (US$/km) Paved Rehabilitation Poor Strengthening (Overlay) 400,000 Very Poor Reconstruction 600,000 Periodic Maintenance Good Preventive Treatment 15,000 Fair Resurfacing (Overlay) 150,000 Routine maintenance (per year) 6,000 Unpaved Rehabilitation Poor Partial Reconstruction 40,000 (gravel) Very Poor Full Reconstruction 60,000 Periodic Maintenance Good Spot Regravelling 3,000 Fair Regravelling 17,000 Routine maintenance (per year) 750 - 1,500 Source: World Bank calculations 18. Two scenarios are examined: • Baseline scenario: This provides a practical business-as-usual solution based on the current situation. Despite the national road standards, most of asphalt got torn from the surface on half of “paved” roads. From the fiscal point of view, it is hardly possible to maintain all paved roads. Thus, a more practical solution that is close to the actual road-sector practice is to focus investment and maintenance on priority roads with high traffic (about 350km), while maintaining other low traffic roads by lower design standards (gravel). • Climate resilient scenario: This scenario assumes that all roads are paved as required by the national road standards. About 430 km of roads that are currently severely damaged are assumed to be reconstructed, upgraded and maintained in an optimal way. Actual road design and specifications required for climate resilience vary across roads. However, this all- pavement case represents a high-end scenario incurring substantial investment costs. 19. The result. Under the baseline scenario, US$12.4 million per year would be required, which is still above the current level of spending but perhaps achievable with all available internal and external consolidated and augmented (figure A12). Average overall road roughness (measured by the international roughness index (IRI) weighted by vehicle-km) could be improved relatively quickly, from current 5.1 m/km to 3 m/km at year 10. 20. Under the climate resilient scenario, far more resources would be needed to maintain the network optimally, i.e., US$17.5 million per year. Even to do minimum maintenance, US$11.7 million would be needed every year. For obvious reasons, significant recourses would need to be spent on road rehabilitation works. It would take more time to improve the overall road network condition because of a lengthy road reconstruction period. However, the network quality could be stabilized over the long run, even under the Do Minimum scenario. This is a positive impact of preemptive upfront investment in strength of infrastructure structures. In contract, the baseline scenario indicates a risk that the overall road condition could deteriorate over a roughness of 7 m/km if there is no sufficient resource to carry out necessary works and the practice follows the Do Minimum. 10 Figure A12. Required resource allocation Figure A13. Projected road network quality Source: World Bank calculations 21. Policy implications. Comoros needs more resources to develop and maintain its road network to assure people’s overall accessibility in the country. Comoros currently spends on average US$5.4 million per year on road sector development. To maintain the current road network optimally, at least US$12 million would be needed. Climate resilient road investment and maintenance add to more costs. To increase the network resilience, US$17 million would be required per year. This exceeds the current spending in Comoros, however, is worth considering because the road asset value would be lost otherwise. The total road network asset value in Comoros is about US$400 million. Under the assumption that 10 percent of the road network is totally devastated once every 5 years, the expected annual damage is US$8 million, justifying the additional resilience costs in the road sector.5 22. More efforts are needed to mobilize both internal and external resources. The country’s fiscal balance is negative and tight. Comoros has a road fund mechanism, which is not functioning with a limited fuel levy revenue of about US$2 million per year. The rest depends on external resources. It is important to mobilize more external resources and consolidate them in an efficient way. Donor funded road projects remain fragmented and need to be coordinated to maximize overall transport connectivity from a network point of view. Although the potential may be limited because of the size of the country, more internal resources could also be generated by restoring and reforming the fuel levy mechanism. Road fund revenues have fallen 20 percent over the last 8 years. The transfer mechanism is also highly discretionary and unpredictable, preventing the Fonds Routier and Directorate of Roads and Road Transportation (DRTR) from planning and implementing their road programs in a timely, consistent manner. The current fuel levy in Comoros is 3.7 U.S. cents per liter, substantially lower than the regional average, 8.9 cents per liter, and the regionally recommended norm of 17 cents. 23. A more holistic approach, e.g., a national road program, needs to be established to consolidate all available resources and prioritize investment more systematically under a solid road asset management system. Currently, available resources, though limited, are not used in an optimal way. As suggested by the above RONET analysis, Comoros should focus more on road maintenance and preserve the current road assets, which can prevent further deterioration caused by climate event. Currently, approximately 70 percent of available resources are used for capital investment, but half of resources should be spent on periodic and routine road maintenance. To prioritize climate smart investment, which pays for itself over the long run, a solid road asset management system needs to be developed with a strategic prioritization mechanism embedded. 5It is well known that half of infrastructure assets could be lost by 250 cm of flood, and almost all infrastructure would be lost if flood height reaches 500 cm (Habermann and Hedel, 2018). 11 Criticality analysis 24. To improve climate resilience in transport, it is important to have redundancies in a system because the transport sector is a network industry. “Resilience” is formally defined by the adaptive response of a system to stress (Ganin et al. 2017). This is also referred to as robustness, redundancy, and criticality. As more frequently observed over the world, extreme climate events disrupt transport networks and supply chains. Thus, it is of importance to have redundancies in a system so that efficient and reliable transport mobility could be assured even if a particular transport link is closed. 25. More formally, criticality can be measured by potential deterrence that is caused by the closure of a particular road or maritime transport route. It decreases if there are an abundance of alternative routes. If there are few alternative routes, the criticality increases because travelers are forced to take a long detour. Mathematically, the criticality of transport link k is defined by: ∑ ∑ = ∗ ∑ ∑ I and J represent the origin and destination nodes, respectively. t* is the shortest travel time between node i and j. This is the baseline case. The optimal routes are identified by minimizing the total transport user costs. tk represents the shortest travel time between node i and j when road link k is closed. This may be suboptimal including some extra trip time, because a certain detour may have to be taken. 26. The analysis considers both road and maritime transport networks to connect 302 villages in the three main islands. There are 302 local communities or villages identified, which are used for origins and destinations (Figure A14). Methodologically, the criticality is examined to connect all of them with each other (i.e., , = 1, ⋯ , 302). For simplicity purposes, air transport is omitted, which is less affordable for many Comorians. The road condition data were collected in 2021. For each road link, road user cost and trip time are estimated based on the road conditions (Figure A15). For maritime transport, five routes are considered (Table A3). Given the current operational speed and frequency, transport user costs, including fares and time costs, are calculated for each route. 27. Transport time is important for both passengers and goods. The value of time for people is assumed to be US$0.18 per hour for both trip and expected waiting time.6 Assuming the normal vehicle occupancy for passenger cars and the standard freight capacity for trucks, the average value of time for vehicle traffic is estimated at US$0.35 to US$10.7 per fleet, depending on type of vehicle.7 The weighted average with the fleet shares is US$1.53 per vehicle-hour (Table A4). 6Based on Comoros GDP per capita of US$1,577 in 2021. 7It is assumed that 0.6 percent of the shipping value would be lost per day. The literature estimates that each day in transit is equivalent to an ad-valorem tariff of 0.6 to 2.1 percent (Hummerls and Schaur, 2013). Since the average cargo value is US$2,482 per ton according to the shipment data in the region, the potential loss of shipment value is about US$0.62 per ton-hour. 12 Figure A14. Road and maritime transport Figure A15. Road roughness and road user networks and local communities costs Source: World Bank calculations Table A3. Underlying assumptions on maritime transport services Ferry Kwassa Moroni Mutsamudu Boingoma Chindini Hoani Mutsamudou Boingoma Moroni Hoani Dodin Distance (km) 160 82 120 43 80 Fare (US$) 50 39 39 22 28 Duration (hour) 8 3 5 1 2 Speed (km/h) 20 21 24 57 40 Frequency 3 times per No service Once per 27 boats 10 boats week two weeks per day per day Transport cost (US$) 54.0 71.9 54.9 22.4 28.2 Source: World Bank calculations Table A4. Average value of time for vehicle traffic Composition Vehicle capacity: Value of time No. of ($/vehicle- Vehicle Category (%) passengers Weight (ton) hour) Light Passengers 50.0 2 0.35 Medium Passengers 25.0 2 0.35 Light Bus 3.0 10 1.76 Heavy Bus 1.0 40 7.02 Light Goods 10.0 1 4 2.66 Medium Goods 8.0 1 11 7.00 Heavy Goods 3.0 1 17 10.72 Total / Weighted average 100.0 2.41 1.79 1.53 Source: World Bank calculations 28. The result. From the criticality point of view, interisland connectivity is the most important for Comoros. For obvious reasons, there are few alternatives in the maritime transport sector. As a result, any potential disruption of maritime transport operations would cause significant costs to the economy. There are substantial movements of people and goods among the islands. The freight handled by Port Boingoma is 12,000 tons (Figure A16) and that about 30,000 ferry passengers travel 13 between Moroni and Mutsamudu (Figure A17). It is important to have redundancy in the transport system, such as primary and secondary ports, ferry and small passenger boat services. 29. The disruption costs of maritime transport services among the islands are substantial even under current circumstances. The annual costs are estimated at US$845,000 (Figure A18). As discussed above, the primary and secondary ports are not fully operational because of weather condition. They are closed for 30 to 90 days per year. This accounts for about 0.3 percent of the total trade of Comoros. The disruption cost is most significant for Port Moroni, which handles about 60 percent of the country’s total cargo. The disruption cost of Port Boingoma is relatively small because of its modest cargo volume, although the port is more likely to be closed. 30. In the road sector, the average disruption cost is estimated at US$155,000 per road. The criticality varies substantially among locations. The average time of delay is estimated at 3,588 hours (Figure A19). Recall that this is the total delay when all pairs of the 302 communities in the country are considered. There are some 116 km that are considered to be highly critical, for example, RN1, 2, 3, 21, 22, 31 and 32 (Figure A20). If one of these road segments is closed, a total of more than 10,000 hours of traffic delays could happen. 31. National roads are more critical than regional or unclassified roads. In Comoros, these major national roads carry the vast majority of traffic. As a result, the estimated disruption costs are much significant for national roads. The average hourly cost is estimated at US$283,000 if a national road is closed (Figure 9). Because of low levels of traffic, the disruption costs are lower for regional and unclassified roads, i.e., US$26,000 and US$4,000, respectively. Although it is difficult to estimate the disruption costs more precisely, economic benefits from preventing from road closure can help to justify additional upfront climate investment in the road sector. Figure A16. Throughput at Port Boingoma Figure A17. Ferry passengers among the islands Figure A18. Estimated disruption costs at ports Figure A19. Distribution of estimated criticality Source: World Bank calculations 14 Figure A20. Criticality of transport routes Source: World Bank calculations Figure A21. Average disruption costs by road class Source: World Bank calculations 15