CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | SPECIAL NOTE | November 2023 Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action§ Saher Asad, Lauren N. Dahlin, Juan D. Barón Climate change has profoundly affected KEY TAKEAWAYS Pakistan, manifesting in altered weather Overall, 8 in 10 people in Pakistan patterns and devastating floods. According are concerned about impacts of to projections, Pakistan’s GDP is expected to climate change, with females decrease by a minimum of 18 to 20 percent and educated people being more by 2050 due to severe climate-related concerned. occurrences, environmental deterioration, and air → Climate change is more likely contamination (World Bank, 2022). to be perceived as a pressing issue when presented with The 2022 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) economic issues. report states that modifying the lifestyles and behaviors of → People with the least education people could result in a 40-70 percent decrease in greenhouse are more likely to distrust gas emissions by 2050 (IPCC, 2022). The significance of all sources of climate-related altering behaviors and lifestyles to combat climate change is information. emphasized in the 2023 IPCC report (IPCC, 2023). → Parents have high demand for This policy note presents findings from a phone survey that explores the socio-economic factors influencing the level of climate change education for concern and likelihood of action regarding climate change. their children; however, only The survey collected nationally representative data from 2000 a fraction of them engage in households/people (one respondent per household) who discussions about it at home. are parents of school-aged children. This group is particularly → Despite the high levels of pertinent and sizeable in Pakistan, given the recent catastrophic floods and their implications (Barón et al., 2022; Dahlin & Barón, concern about climate change, 2023) and the country’s rapidly increasing population. According support for personal and to the 2023 IPCC report, the repercussions of climate change government action is low. are predicted to have a far more pronounced impact on the → Strategies to motivate action lives of today’s children and their future offspring than the on climate actions should focus current generation of adults. Furthermore, given that children are projected to bear the brunt of climate change, the degree on effectively encouraging of concern exhibited by their parents plays a pivotal role in behavioral change by fostering proactive measures to address this global issue.1 highlighting financial savings rather than climate impact. § The authors thank Keiko Inoue, Amer Hasan, Toby Linden, May Bend, Patrick Behrer, Yoko Akura, Yunziyi Lang, and Sergio Venegas for comments to a previous version of this document. All authors belong to the Education Global Practice at the World Bank. Corresponding author: Saher Asad (sasad1@worldbank.org) Various socioeconomic factors can impact climate concerns and action. Bergquist et al. (2023) suggest that the most effective interventions for inducing climate actions are ones based on social comparison to others This policy note is centered around and those based on financial incentives. Tolpannnen (2022) highlights the role of a three primary areas that offer climate education-based intervention in insights into understanding people’s helping improve action. The evidence on the behavior toward climate change in impacts of gender on climate concern and action is mixed (see, e.g., Vicente-Molina et al., Pakistan. 2018; Xiao & McCright, 2015). The Pew Global Survey (Fagan & Huang, 2019) also suggests Firstly, the report delves into the that in some countries women and younger determinants of concern and priority that people are more concerned about climate people place on climate change by using change, while people with higher levels of the data collected through the survey. This education tend to exhibit greater concern provides a comprehensive understanding of for the issue. Lawson et al. (2018) suggest the key factors influencing people’s attitudes that intergenerational pathways for climate toward climate change and their perception communication and action are essential. of its importance. By exploring these determinants, policymakers can develop As with many developing nations, Pakistan is targeted interventions and strategies that grappling with the effects of climate change, encourage people to prioritize climate change such as rising temperatures and a surge in and take proactive measures to address it. natural calamities, including floods. However, despite substantial evidence highlighting the Secondly, the note analyzes the factors that consequences of climate change, there needs impact people’s trust in climate-related to be a more analytical insight into the drivers information. Given the abundance of of individual perceptions and behaviors in misinformation surrounding climate change, relation to climate change in Pakistan. To understanding the factors influencing trust in bridge this gap, this policy note explores the information is crucial in promoting accurate role of socio-economic factors that shape and reliable information to encourage people’s perception of climate change and the informed decisions. actions that influence its impact. Thirdly, the note focuses on the determinants of climate action and how they compare to other concerns. By examining TARGETING INTERVENTIONS the factors that drive people’s climate-related behavior, policymakers can identify the key Using data to understand areas that require intervention to encourage proactive climate change action. This analysis what drives people’s can also highlight discrepancies between individuals’ levels of concern and their climate behavior can actions, highlighting areas requiring further help policymakers research and intervention. target interventions to bridge the gap between concern and action. CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 2 A. Do people express concern about climate change and its impacts? The awareness and significance of climate change are influenced by several factors, including concern for its impact on children, recognition of climate change as a significant issue, and personal interest. The survey covered these aspects and revealed that women and people with higher education exhibit the highest levels of concern for the impacts of climate change. Hence, gender and education serve as important determinants of climate change awareness. Box 1 Figure 1. Concern for Climate Change – A Global Comparison Concern/Threat for Greece Climate Change – A Global France Comparison1 Japan South Korea A global comparison involving 19 Italy countries was conducted to gain a Spain deeper understanding of the attitudes towards climate change. A specific Hungary question, carefully derived from Pew Belgium survey (Fagan & Huang, 2019), has UK emerged as an important indicator of the concern for climate change. Netherlands Pakistan The survey asked respondents: To what degree do you consider climate change Poland a threat/concern?  Germany The outcomes of this question reveal Australia that Pakistan’s values lie somewhere Canada in the middle when compared to the other 19 countries. Sweden United States Israel Singapore Malaysia 1 Although there is a slight variation in wording between the original Pew survey, which used ‘thread,’ and the translated version in the context of Pakistan, where ‘concern’ was used, the phrasings convey similar meaning.   Major threat/concern   Minor threat/concern   Not a threat/concern CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 3 Figure 2. Climate Change Concern by Education and Gender  Concerned about impact of climate change on children  Personally care about climate % of individuals change Overall, 8 in 10 Pakistanis in the survey express People’s perception of climate change can be deep concern on impacts of climate change on affected by their experiences of income shocks. children. A majority of people in different groups Those people who have experienced income loss express concern, though gender and education due to events such as the COVID-19 pandemic or are significant factors in determining the level of floods are more likely to be concerned about the concern for climate change (Figure 2). impacts of climate change (Figure 3). It is worth Women are generally more concerned about noting that this effect is observed even if the climate change, particularly its potential impact on individual has not directly experienced the effects of children. This gender disparity in climate change climate change, such as inundation, highlighting the concern may stem from women’s role as primary importance of understanding the indirect impacts of caregivers for children. Education is also critical in climate change on people’s lives. shaping people’s attitudes towards climate change. The more educated an individual is, the more likely they are to be aware of climate change’s causes and Figure 3. Concern About Climate Change consequences and view it as a significant threat to by Income Loss the planet. The most educated people are the most concerned about the impact of climate change. This correlation between education and climate change concern highlights the importance of education and knowledge about climate change as one of the factors to foster a more sustainable future for all. % of individuals   Concern about climate change impact on children   Personally care about climate change CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 4 Although people express concern about climate change and its impacts when asked specifically about it, it does not necessarily rank high on their list of priorities to address. For example, the survey participants were asked to select the top three issues facing Pakistan. While almost 80 percent or more (Figure 4) reported being worried about the effects of climate change on children, less than a Figure 4. Concern for Climate Change versus Priority quarter included climate change among the top for Climate Change three problems. This suggests that while there is deep concern about climate change, it may not be a primary concern for people in terms of priority. The survey also determined the relative importance of different issues, including climate % of individuals change. People were randomized into groups and presented with a list of issues: poverty, inequality, inflation, climate change and pollution, peace and justice, health, and education. One group was presented with economic issues first, while the other was presented with social issues first. Despite the order in which the issues were presented, the position on climate change was the same.   Believe climate change will impact children   Pick climate change in Top 3 problems According to the results, there is a 4 percentage point statistically significant increase in the likelihood of people considering climate change as an important issue when economic issues are Figure 5. Effect of Priming through an Order presented first as compared to when social issues by Education are presented first. This can be attributed to the perception of climate change and pollution as an economic problem, which increases attention towards it when economic issues are emphasized first. Furthermore, the difference in the prioritization of climate change between the two groups, based % of individuals on the order of issues presented, is more prominent among people with higher levels of education (Figure 5).   Social issues first   Economic issues first CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 5 B. How informed are people on climate change? The survey collected data on people’s knowledge of climate issues and their trust in various sources of climate information. Less than half the people believe that climate change is caused by human activity. People with higher levels of education tend to be more knowledgeable about climate change issues (Figure 6). When asked about global warming, only 47 percent While educating people on climate change is of illiterate people believe that the earth is getting emerging as an important finding, the survey warmer due to natural activity. This percentage findings also indicate that educating people about is slightly higher for people with primary and climate change is far from easy. Findings presented secondary education at 49 percent and higher in Figure 7, show that while the news/media is the for those with higher education or above, with 60 most trusted, there are still significant numbers percent believing that human activity causes global who do not trust any source of information at all. warming. Importantly, elected officials and religious leaders have the least credibility, with less than 1/5 of people Figure 6. Information on Climate Change trusting scientists. This emphasizes the lack of by Education trust in traditional sources of leadership on climate change. The media, although trusted the most, maybe spreading a considerable amount of poor- quality information. The results further showed that the least educated people are the most likely to distrust any sources of climate information (Figure 7). This presents a complex problem in developing effective policies to improve the information for this group, which is also the least informed and has the lowest level of trust   There is no evidence that Earth is getting warmer in all presented sources of information.   Earth is getting warmer due to natural patterns   Earth is getting warmer due to human activity Figure 7. Sources that People Trust on Climate Information by Education   Elected officials   News media   Religious leaders  Scientists  None % of individuals CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 6 Notably, 37.7 percent of illiterate people do not trust any of the sources presented, while this number decreases to 26.1 percent for people with higher education or above. This suggests that the level of education is critical in shaping people’s trust in climate information sources. However, it also highlights the need for alternative strategies to reach those with limited education and low trust in climate Almost 1/3 change information. Developing innovative and targeted communication campaigns and partnering with trusted actors and organizations may be effective ways to improve climate change awareness among the least educated and skeptical people. Trust in sources of information also varies depending on the location of the people, with rural areas being more skeptical (Figure 8). This presents an important challenge as these people need to trust the most used sources of information for climate change. Furthermore, it is noteworthy that trust in elected officials is generally low, while trust in of respondents news media is relatively high. However, 34.2 percent in rural areas and 29.6 percent in urban areas do not do not trust any trust any sources of climate change information, source of climate making it difficult to convey the necessary change information information to them through traditional channels. Thus, it is crucial to identify the most effective means of communicating with these people to address their skepticism and promote awareness of climate change. % of individuals Figure 8. Sources that People Trust on Climate Information by Location   Elected officials   News media   Religious leaders  Scientists  None CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 7 C. Is there support for Climate Change Action? C.1. Introducing Climate Change in Education Understanding what prevents people from acting on climate change is crucial in creating effective policies and programs. One important factor to consider is the level of household communication and discussion about climate change. While the data shows that many people support introducing climate-related education in schools, less than half discuss climate change with their children at home (Figure 9). This suggests that there may be a gap between awareness and action and that more efforts are needed to promote discussions and actions at the household level. Additionally, it highlights the potential role of schools in promoting conversations and educating families on climate change issues. The high demand for introducing climate change Figure 9. Demand for Climate Change Education education in schools suggests a useful approach and Discussions on Climate Change with Children in driving action toward climate change. However, the effectiveness of such education may be limited if these discussions are not taking place at home. This is a concern that remains consistent across all % of individuals education levels. Even though there are slightly more discussions about climate change occurring in urban areas compared to rural areas (Figure 10), the overall lack of discussions about climate change at home could hinder the potential for schools to influence students in taking action towards mitigating climate change. Therefore, it is crucial to develop strategies   Climate change discussed with children to promote discussions about climate change in   Demand for climate change education in schools schools and at home. Figure 10. Climate Change Discussion at Home versus Demand for Climate Change Education by Location PROMOTE DISCUSSION, INFLUENCE ACTION Despite widespread support for climate education in schools, % of individuals less than half of parents discuss climate change with their children at home.   Climate change discussed with children   Demand for climate change education in schools CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 8 Box 2 Figure 11. Belief versus Actual Action to Reduce Effects of Air Pollution Choking on Beliefs:  Belief  Actual The Harsh Reality of Air Pollution in the Face of Inaction % of individuals In Pakistan, air pollution is a children, and increase the risk Participants were asked critical environmental hazard. of cancer, especially leukemia whether they believed that Over the past few years, urban and lymphoma. Moreover, air actions such as avoiding going regions of the country have pollution can impair children’s outside, keeping windows shut, experienced deteriorating air brain development and function, avoiding busy roads, or changing quality, leading to smog during leading to lower cognition, ventilation had any impact the winter season. learning difficulties, behavioral on reducing the impact of problems, and mental disorders. air pollution. This increase in air pollution can be attributed to various human The survey results indicate that Additionally, the survey activities, including higher people believe air pollution can asked how many people had vehicular and factory emissions, have a negative impact on the taken this action in the last and crop burning. In the survey, attendance and performance 30 days. There is a significant participants were questioned of students and workers; discrepancy between beliefs and about their perceptions of how specifically, 64.4 percent of actions (Figure 11). air pollution affects them. respondents believe it affects While many individuals According to the survey 46 student performance, 50 percent acknowledge that taking such percent of individuals believe air believe it affects student measures can help mitigate the pollution can cause heart disease attendance, 49.2 percent believe effects of air pollution, relatively and 70 percent believe it can it affects worker performance, few actually implement them. cause asthma. and 53.2 percent believe it affects worker attendance, according to This presents a significant The effects of air pollution the data. challenge in terms of on children’s health are well- promoting behavioral documented (Brumberg & Karr, The survey also inquired about change, as simply altering 2021). Air pollution can damage their knowledge of effective beliefs may not be sufficient the respiratory, immune, and measures to reduce the impact to induce corresponding cardiovascular systems of of air pollution on individuals. changes in actions. CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 9 C.2. Support for Individual and Government Climate Action Climate change is a complex issue that requires understanding the various factors influencing individual support for climate action. Therefore, as part of the survey, various questions were asked to measure individual support for climate action, which shed light on variables that help unpack what exactly this support means and how much of it is likely to result in action. The survey included questions to measure people’s Figure 12. Percentage of People Willing to Pay for level of support for climate action. One question Environmentally Friendly Goods by Education was about the willingness to pay for environmentally friendly goods. The results show that more than two-thirds of people were prepared to pay for environmentally friendly goods. There are, however, differences in demand based on education level, with higher demand among the more educated people % of individuals (Figure 12). One of the questions in the survey was about people’s views on energy conservation. The results showed that 92 percent of individuals consider conserving energy somewhat or very important. However, their reasons for conserving energy tended to vary and were not necessarily linked to environmental support and protection.   Male  Female Very few people across all education groups mentioned they support energy conservation for environmental reasons. However, a lot more Figure 13. Reasons for Energy Conservation educated people said that they support energy by Education conservation for saving money and for environmental reasons, compared to less educated people who only support it for saving money (Figure 13). This suggests that while education helps inform people about the importance of environmental conservation, more is needed to translate into a greater concern for the environment.   Save money   Protect the environment  Both Less than of respondents 15% wish to conserve energy for environmental reasons CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 10 Overall, the survey results highlight the need for a Figure 14. Comparison of Concern for Climate Change nuanced approach to addressing climate change, Impacts and Support for Climate Action Policies considering the factors influencing individual support for climate action. For example, in   Give income for   Pay higher  Concerned addition to examining people’s willingness to pay environment taxes for about impact of environment climate change for environmentally friendly goods, the survey also on children asked about their willingness to contribute income to A. By education protect the environment or support raising taxes for % of individuals environmental protection. The percentage of people willing to contribute income or pay taxes for the environment appears to be substantial, surpassing half of the people. However, when compared to overall concern for the environment, this figure is relatively lower. Furthermore, upon examining the data (Figure 14a), it was noticed that individuals with higher levels of education exhibited greater support for such policies. However, it is important to note that even among the more educated groups, the level of support for these policies is not as strong as their concern for climate change’s impacts. This indicates that while education may play a role in shaping people’s attitudes toward environmental policies, other factors may also be at play in determining their level of support. When the data is broken down by gender (Figure 14b), similar to the earlier finding, it shows that although women express higher levels of B. By gender % of individuals concern for climate change, their support for action is relatively lower. The survey also examines the relationship between concern for climate change impacts and self- reported action. The results show that people are more likely to take energy-saving actions that lead to financial savings, such as turning off the lights when not in use. However, the support for other actions that may have a greater impact on reducing climate change, such as using public transportation, carpooling, or reducing meat consumption, is much lower (Figure 15). Figure 15. Concern for Climate Change and Climate Action % of individuals Concerned about impact of climate change on children Turn off lights Change use of trains/buses Reduce paper consumption Reduce beef consumption No action CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 11 The findings suggest that while people may be Overall, the findings suggest that while concern concerned about the impacts of climate change, for climate change is high, the support for action they may not necessarily translate this concern may be lower, particularly for actions that may be into action. This may be due to several factors, less convenient or require more effort. Therefore, including a need for knowledge about the most addressing the barriers to acting and providing effective actions, inconvenience, or lack of incentives. incentives for sustainable behaviors may be key to Therefore, it is important to consider individual promoting meaningful action on climate change. beliefs and attitudes toward climate change and When considering support for climate action, it the broader societal and structural factors that may is important to analyze specific actions beyond influence behavior. simply turning off the lights. In doing so, it becomes Furthermore, education and awareness-raising apparent that different actions receive varying levels campaigns that provide information on the most of support depending on the population’s education effective actions people can take may also be level. For example, actions related to transportation effective in bridging the gap between concern tend to have higher support among more and action. For instance, campaigns highlighting educated people, while the support for reducing the financial savings achieved through sustainable beef consumption is higher among the illiterate behaviors or the health benefits of reducing meat population (Figure 16). consumption may be more effective in encouraging However, it is also important to note that the least people to act. educated people are likelier to take no action (Figure 16). This highlights the need for education Figure 16. Climate Action by Education to be utilized to inform and drive climate action. In this way, education can be a critical component % of individuals in the fight against climate change. Efforts to increase education access and improve quality can significantly impact the global response to this pressing issue. SHARE KNOWLEDGE , ENCOUR AGE ACTION Education and awareness campaigns that highlight the benefits of sustainable actions, such as financial savings and health benefits, can bridge the gap between concern and action.   Change use of trains/buses   Reduce paper consumption   Reduce beef consumption   No action CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 12 CONCLUSION Females and educated people are more concerned about climate change and its impacts. People are more likely to view climate change as a pressing issue when it is presented alongside economic issues. However, those with the least education are more likely to distrust all sources of climate-related information. Climate change education is in Despite the serious concern high demand across all groups, but about climate change, there is the survey found that only some limited support for personal and parents discuss climate change government action. This highlights with their children at home. This the need for more effective indicates a need for more education communication and education and awareness about climate about the specific actions people change, especially in households and governments can take to with less access to information. address climate change. There is a pressing need to bridge the gap Opportunity. The recent floods between concern and action and appear to have heightened public ensure that people are equipped awareness of climate change- with the necessary knowledge to related issues. As beliefs often drive take meaningful steps towards actions, this moment presents a combating climate change. valuable opportunity to galvanize efforts toward meaningful change. However, it is necessary to explore alternative approaches for climate change awareness and action as there is a lack of trust in traditional agents of change. CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 13 Methodology The data used in this note come from a nationally representative phone survey by Gallup Pakistan. Data collection was carried out in March 2023. The World Bank team designed the questionnaire used in the survey. 2,000 The survey was carried out using random digit dialing (RDD) of mobile phones using all four telecom providers with active numbers across Pakistan. Approximately 93 percent of households have access to a mobile phone (Government of Pakistan 2021). Each random number was called to survey Completed surveys in the study households until a call was answered (with a maximum of three attempts). Calls were placed at different times on different days of the The survey’s target population was parents or week to maximize the response rate. Once an caregivers of children ages 5 to 17. The survey individual was contacted on his or her mobile collected information on basic demographics, phone, consent was obtained, a screening concerns related to climate change, information questionnaire was administered, and a unique related to climate change and its impacts, and the study identification number was generated for likelihood of taking climate change action. A limited the respondent. Next, interviewers entered data set of sociodemographic characteristics was also into a tablet with Survey CTO software that had collected, including parents’ education, assets, the preloaded questionnaire with automatic gender, family composition, rural, urban, district, and skipping patterns (Computer Assisted Telephone province. Interviewing, CATI). The survey randomly called 31,375 numbers, reaching 12,140 individuals who answered the phone, of which 3,296 agreed to the interview, 1,296 with In the incomplete surveys, and 2,000 that have a complete sample: 56% rural 44% urban survey (used for analysis in this note). To better capture the aggregate impact, weights are created using quintiles from province, rural/urban, gender, and education of household head. 22% female 78% male CAVEAT ON INTERPRETATION OF RESULTS | Phone surveys are known to miss families at the bottom of the income distribution who usually do not have mobile phones or live in hard-to-reach areas (where cellphone coverage is limited). Thus, the results and interpretations in this note should be taken with those factors in mind. CLIMATE SILENCE IN PAKISTAN | Understanding Socioeconomic Factors in Climate Change Awareness and Action 14 REFERENCES Barón, J., Bend, M., Roseo, E. M., & Farrakh, IPCC. (2023). Climate Change 2023: I. 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