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Cover photo: Frame Stock Footage/Shutterstock 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This toolkit was jointly prepared by a World Bank Group team led by Mariana Carolina Silva Zuniga and Khafi Weekes, and composed of Philippe Neves, Jade Shu Yu Wong, Carmel Lev, Helen Gall, Gisele Saralegui, and Guillermo Diaz Fanas and GRID Engineers led by Rallis Kourkoulis and Fani Gelagoti with contributions from Konstantinos Kotoulas, Elena Bouzoni, Antonios Mantakas, and Diana Gkouzelou. The team would like to thank Kulwinder Singh Rao, Juan Samos, Justin Bishop, Ana Isabel Gren, and Wenxin Li for their contributions and valuable peer review inputs. The team is grateful to Fatouma Toure Ibrahima, Jane Jamieson, Imad Fakhoury and Emmanuel Nyirinkindi for their support and guidance. Charissa Sayson, Paula Garcia, Rose Mary Escano and Luningning Loyola Pablo provided excellent administrative support. The task team wishes to acknowledge the generous funding provided for this report by the Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) through the Climate Resilience and Environmental Sustainability Technical Advisory (CREST) funded by the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA), and by the Global Infrastructure Facility (GIF). About PPIAF PPIAF helps developing-country governments strengthen policy, regulations, and institutions that enable sustainable infrastructure with private-sector participation. As part of these efforts, PPIAF promotes knowledge-transfer by capturing lessons while funding research and tools; builds capacity to scale infrastructure delivery; and assists sub- national entities in accessing financing without sovereign guarantees. Donor-supported and housed within the World Bank, PPIAF’s work helps generate hundreds of millions in infrastructure investment. While many initiatives focus on structuring and financing infrastructure projects with private participation, PPIAF sets the stage tomake this possible. About the GIF The Global Infrastructure Facility, a G20 initiative, has the overarching goals of increasing private investment in sustainable infrastructure across emerging markets and developing economies and improving services that contribute to poverty reduction and equitable growth aligned with the SDGs. The GIF provides funding and hands- on technical support to client governments and multilateral development bank partners to build pipelines of bankable sustainable infrastructure. The GIF enables collective action among a wide range of partners – including donors, development finance institutions, country governments, together with inputs of private sector investors and financiers – to leverage both resources and knowledge to find solutions to sustainable infrastructure financing challenges. About CTA IFC’s PPP Transaction Advisory (CTA) advises governments on designing and implementing PPP projects that provide or expand much needed access to and/or improved delivery of high-quality infrastructure services – such as power, transportation, health, water and sanitation – to people while being affordable for governments. In doing so, CTA assists on both the technical, financial, contractual, and procurement aspects of PPP transactions. To date, CTA has signed over 400 projects in 87 countries, mobilizing over $30 billion of private investment in infrastructure, and demonstrating that well-structured PPPs can produce significant development gains even in challenging environments. 4 Table of Contents List of Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................................................................... 6 Foreword ........................................................................................................................................................ 7 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................ 10 Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 12 Toolkit Navigator .......................................................................................................................................... 13 Module 1 PROJECT ALIGNMENT WITH CLIMATE POLICIES ............................................................................ 17 Step 1 Map Climate Policies...................................................................................................................... 18 TOOL 1.1 Mapping climate policies and actors ...................................................................................... 18 TOOL 1.2 Screening project’s alignment with climate policies................................................................ 23 Module 2 INCORPORATING CLIMATE CONSIDERATIONS IN PROJECT SELECTION ......................................... 31 Step 0 Preparatory Groundwork............................................................................................................... 33 TOOL 2.1 Climate assessment type decision tree ................................................................................... 34 TOOL 2.2 Climate assessment checklist: resources and staff requirements ............................................ 36 Step 1 Assess Climate Risks ...................................................................................................................... 38 TOOL 2.3 Climate hazards mapping considering future projections ....................................................... 39 TOOL 2.4 Assessment of project’s exposure to hazard........................................................................... 43 TOOL 2.5 Vulnerability assessment of major asset categories ................................................................ 44 TOOL 2.6 Climate risk assessment ......................................................................................................... 46 TOOL 2.7 Climate-change-induced externalities and impacts on the road network ................................ 48 Step 2 Select Adaptation Strategies To Reduce Climate Risks .................................................................. 50 TOOL 2.8 High-level screening of climate adaptation strategies ............................................................. 51 TOOL 2.9 A participatory decision-support tool for appraising climate adaptation strategies................. 53 TOOL 2.10 A high-level procedure for the preliminary life cycle assessment (LCA) of GHG emissions..... 56 Step 4 Select Mitigation Measures ........................................................................................................... 59 TOOL 2.11 High-level screening of GHG reduction strategies applicable to roads .................................. 60 Module 3 CLIMATE CONSIDERATIONS IN ASSESSING PROJECTS’ ECONOMICS AND FINANCES .................... 64 Step 1 Prioritize climate adaptation and mitigation strategies using multi-criteria analysis (mca)........... 65 TOOL 3.1 MCA assessment of climate strategies ................................................................................... 66 Step 2 Check economic soundness of alternative climate strategies ........................................................ 68 TOOL 3.2 Climate entry points for CBA for road networks ..................................................................... 69 5 TOOL 3.3 Climate value drivers for VfM analysis .................................................................................... 71 Module 4 KPIs FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AND SUSTAINABLE ROADS ............................................................. 77 TOOL 4.1 KPIs measuring climate mitigation objectives ......................................................................... 78 TOOL 4.2 KPIs measuring climate adaptation objectives ........................................................................ 82 Summary and Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 85 Appendix A ................................................................................................................................................... 88 Appendix B ................................................................................................................................................... 96 PROJECT ALIGNMENT WITH CLIMATE POLICIES ............................................................................................ 96 6 List of Abbreviations and Acronyms BRT bus rapid transit CAPEX capital expenditures CBA cost-benefit analysis CNG compressed natural gas CO2 carbon dioxide CO2e carbon dioxide equivalent DBST double bituminous surface treatment EbA ecosystem-based adaptation EIRR economic internal rate of return EMAS eco-management and audit scheme GHG greenhouse gas GIB Global Infrastructure Basel GRI Global Reporting Initiative ICMA International Capital Market Association IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change KPI key performance indicator LED light-emitting diode LPG liquefied petroleum gas LRT light rail transit LSE London School of Economics LTS long-term strategy MCA multi-criteria analysis MDBs multilateral development banks MoT ministry of transportation NAP national adaptation plan NbS nature-based solutions NDCs Nationally Determined Contributions NPV net present value n.a. not applicable OPEX operating expenses PPP public-private partnership RCP Representative Concentration Pathway SASB Sustainable Accounting Standards Board SRI solar reflective index SSL Solid State Luminaires TCFD Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures VfM value for money 7 Foreword The time for action to build a better future and green recovery has never been stronger as we navigate the uncertainty of a world dealing with multiple crisis on top of climate change. As governments across the globe face fiscal constraints, it has become imperative to crowd in private sector solutions, innovation, and finance to create new solutions and pathways to meet Paris Agreement goals on climate change and UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) commitments. Participation of the private sector in Paris-Aligned infrastructure investments is critical and public-private partnerships (PPPs) are among the key solutions. PPPs are critical in supporting governments to bridge the infrastructure gap not only for the additional capital they bring but sector expertise and innovation as well. However, the PPP model is not without challenges, climate change creates uncertainty that can be difficult to account for in the framework of PPPs, which require a certain degree of predictability to attract investment and finance. This sector-specific toolkit on the roads sector aims to address this challenge by embedding a climate approach into upstream PPP structuring. If structured correctly, PPPs in the transport sector can increase climate resilience offering market-based solutions to address both mitigation and adaptation challenges. PPPs are able to provide well- informed and well-balanced risk allocation between partners- offering long-term visibility and stability for the duration of a contract (typically 20 to 30 years)- compensating climate change uncertainty through contractual predictability. The toolkit attempts to address questions like: • In what ways-in terms of likelihood and impact-does climate change affect the roads sector, and what measures can be taken to alleviate these impacts through a PPP structure? • How can decarbonization measures help to promote greener modes of transport and facilitate optimal risk allocation and contractual predictability in an environment marked by uncertainty and the need for resilience to unpredictable scenarios? The Global Infrastructure Facility (GIF), The Public Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) and International Finance Corporation, Transaction Advisory, Public-Private Partnership and Corporate Finance Advisory Services in collaboration with sector specialists across the World Bank Group (WBG)-have joined forces to build upon best practice on a topic at the cross-roads of climate change, infrastructure, and private sector participation. It is a field in evolution where there will be a great deal of innovation ahead of us. Currently an insufficient focus is given to considering climate change in the framework of PPPs. For instance, the PPP tender selection criteria are currently ultimately based on the least cost approach, which may promote assets not resilient enough to withstand climate impacts. This may in turn result in total asset loss with devastating effects on the economy and society. This toolkit is indeed about providing solutions to public officials and their advisors on how to better align interests and incentives towards climate-smart investments and tap into private sector financing capacity. The roads sector toolkit toolkit as part of the Climate Toolkits for Infrastructure PPPs (CTIP3) suite is ultimately a call for action for decision makers, to push for bold initiatives so that infrastructure investments become a critical and steady pathway to achieve Paris Agreement and SDG commitments. Emmanuel B. Nyirinkindi Vice President, Cross-Cutting Solutions, International Finance Corporation Imad Najib Ayed Fakhoury Global Director, Infrastructure Finance, PPPs and Guarantees Global Practice, World Bank 8 9 10 INTRODUCTION The delivery of new transportation motorized vehicles use and secondarily from infrastructure has come to a critical construction, operation, and maintenance- crossroad related activities. To stop this vicious cycle, it is important to account for the effects of climate Sustainability, climate-change mitigation, change early during decision-making, when adaptation, and resilience have become priorities options and investment priorities are discussed. for countries striving to meet their Paris For example, investments in actions contributing Agreement commitments. These priorities impact to GHG reduction and incorporating nature- planning, design, and operational decisions for new based solutions (NbS) would positively impact the carbon footprints of roads, by encouraging a transportation assets, and transform the shift to low-carbon technologies and building procurement and delivery of road infrastructure resilience to climate change. PPPs, adding a new set of considerations to the structuring phase. In line with global and national Interventions to develop more resilient road climate frameworks and policies, sustainable road networks that are better prepared to face the infrastructure PPPs should support stresses caused by the changing climate include decarbonization of the transport sector by: increasing dimensions and capacities, using new promoting greener transportation modes; exhaust materials, building protective works, incorporating nature-based solutions, and adding redundancies. opportunities for energy/material conservation Depending on the types of hazards and assets, during construction and operation; incorporating these options come at an initial construction cost design elements that create asset climate premium when compared to traditional resilience; taking into consideration social inclusion approaches. Hence, it is essential to perform a aspects; and guaranteeing the safety of their users systematic assessment of climate risks and GHG and the resilience of the communities they serve. emissions reduction targets in order to design the optimum climate adaptation and mitigation Road-climate interaction goes strategies. both ways Climate considerations will impact project Road networks are already threatened by economics extreme weather events such as flooding, severe heat, and intense storms, experiencing costly The decision to invest upfront in climate change climate-related impacts and leading to disruption resilience, adaptation and mitigation will depend and damage of roads, bridges, and other on many criteria, including the current and future horizontal transport components. These impacts exposure of the road, are projected to intensify in magnitude, duration, and frequency because of climate change. At the same time, road-based transportation systems are driving climate change with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that result primarily from 11 the consequences of failure compared with the The road-sector toolkit and its intended risk level that is acceptable to users, the life- users cycle cost of savings (e.g., due to the reduced need for repairs, disruptions, etc.), and the In response to the needs identified above, this overall social benefits to the community. In some document is intended to be used by government instances, PPPs can confer certain benefits (e.g., agencies and their advisors in emerging market and more effective use of new materials or low- developing economies (EMDEs), in order to assist emissions equipment, or innovatively designed them in incorporating climate-related risks and adaptation and mitigation measures) compared opportunities in the structuring phase of road to traditional procurement. On the other hand, infrastructure public-private partnership (PPP) parameters such as “green” construction projects. The toolkit complements the World Bank requirements or climate-change induced risks Group’s Climate Toolkits for Infrastructure PPPs could affect the availability of private financing, (CTIP3)1 by providing2 specific tools and step-by- especially when risk reduction options are step guidance on how to apply its provisions to limited and, in many cases, untested. Therefore, road-sector specific PPPs. Note that the present the costs and benefits of climate considerations, toolkit it is not intended for design to structuring as well as the value for money (VfM) of and tendering phases but should be consulted as a procuring a road project as a PPP, should be complementary tool to the Umbrella Toolkit. checked at the early stages of project selection, in order to identify any potential weaknesses and make the necessary adjustments. Well-defined, measurable indicators are essential Climate change introduces a plethora of challenges in the delivery of new road infrastructure projects. Meeting climate mitigation and adaptation goals will involve such considerations as proper design and construction, adequate monitoring, sustainable operations, and efficient maintenance. To ensure that climate considerations are fully embedded in such processes, it is recommended that agencies provide specifications and output requirements in the form of specific, measurable, attainable and action-oriented, relevant, and time-bound (SMART) indicators. 1World Bank, IFC (International Finance Corporation), and MIGA (Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency). 2022. Climate Toolkits for Infrastructure PPP s. Washington, DC: World Bank. Referred to as Umbrella Toolkit in this document. 12 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary The toolkit contains three modules covering the major climate entry points (i.e., alignment with climate policies; incorporation of climate considerations in the project selection; and appraisal of climate effects in the project’s economics and financing), followed by a fourth module that provides climate-related key performance indicators (KPIs) applicable to road projects. Every module is divided into steps—outlining the logical order of the process—that are implemented using specific tools. The tools contained in this toolkit have different formats, depending on the task they serve, and many are accompanied by reference libraries. The toolkit also provides ready-to-use reporting templates to assist in the implementation of the process and the documentation of results. Module 1 presents a two-step process, with tools to assist users with mapping climate policies, and screening projects’ alignments with such policies, in order to identify areas where corrective actions may be needed. Module 2 contains five steps designed to assist users in assessing climate risks, defining strategies to reduce them, estimating the carbon footprints of projects at a preliminary stage, and designing strategies for climate mitigation actions Module 3, which provides a two-step approach (comprising three tools) to guide users on how to prioritize climate strategies and check their economic soundness. Module 4 presents a set of key performance indicators (KPIs) for all of the above processes that are specific to road projects and are meant to serve as entry points for the relevant activities. The interconnections between the modules and the tools contained within each module are explained schematically in the Toolkit Navigator provided on the next page. 13 Toolkit Navigator 14 15 16 MODULE 1 Module 1 17 Module 1 PROJECT ALIGNMENT WITH CLIMATE POLICIES The module is broken down into two steps. Step 1 maps climate goals into specific climate attributes and considerations for new as well as brownfield road projects. Step 2 provides a methodology for assessing the alignment of a project’s description with these attributes. This mapping exercise will define the periphery of climate interventions, which will then be specified, detailed, and appraised in Modules 2 and 3. Module 1 – Step 1 18 Step11Map Climate Policies Step Map Climate Policies This step supports the systematic documentation of global and national SCOPE climate strategies, policies, and plans that constitute the framework for developing new road infrastructure. By understanding their underlying principles, targets, and commitments, the relevant agencies will be better prepared and equipped to design and deliver new sustainable road assets. These assets will align with the climate mitigation vision of the Paris Agreement (PA) and strengthen the capacity of communities to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. The process starts with a quick scan of the country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), national adaptation plans (NAPs), and PROCESS long-term strategy (LTS), which are the main national guidance documents for achieving the goals of the PA and identifying climate opportunities in the road sector. It continues with a compilation of all the important documents that constitute the national climate policy landscape—whether climate laws or policies, or other official governance documents related to climate change. TOOLS TOOL 1.1 Mapping climate policies and actors A country-specific inventory of the most important policy documents on climate change, with specific references to the delivery of new road OUTPUT assets. TOOL 1.1 MAPPING CLIMATE POLICIES AND ACTORS TOOL 1.1 Mapping climate policies and actors This tool is designed to facilitate a desk-study of the landscape of climate policies and frameworks governing the planning and delivery of new road assets, based on the mapping methodology presented in the Umbrella Toolkit (Introductory Phase and Module 1.1), while focusing on priorities and provisions that are specific to road projects. For a more in-depth analysis of the country-specific policies and governance mechanisms, agencies are encouraged to seek support within the following agencies: Module 1 – Step 1 19 ▪ The PPP unit (which is expected to have already completed a general mapping exercise for the country's PPP portfolio). ▪ Relevant ministries (e.g., Ministry of Public Works, Ministry of Infrastructure, Ministry of Finance, etc.) and their corresponding departments (e.g., Department of Urban Planning, Department of Transport and Main Roads, etc.). ▪ Municipalities and other subnational agencies, which are better informed about the climate adaptation activities that happen locally and may not necessarily be reflected in national policy documents (outlined below). INPUT This mapping exercise requires users to gather and consult the following sources of climate policy, including provisions and guidance on the climate mitigation and adaptation potential of road systems and their components. Each source is accompanied by a list of prompts meant to suggest focus areas. 1. National documents describing the country’s strategic development vision Focus areas: • Is the development of new road infrastructure recognized as a strategic vision? • How does it relate to the Paris Agreement, NDCs, and Sustainable Development Goals? • Is a national transport plan available? What does it describe? • Is a modal shift required? • Does the country support more holistic urban transport policies and planning for decarbonization, such as “avoid, shift, improve”? 2. Road investment strategy or transport investment strategy (if available in the country-specific context) Focus areas: • What is the strategic role of road infrastructure investment, and how does it address the current and future needs of users, communities, and the environment? • What is the definition of environmentally responsible road infrastructure? • What is the definition of a resilient or climate-smart road network? • What are the priorities for future transport investment decisions, and how do they relate directly or indirectly to climate change? (For example, a priority investment that foresees the improvement of the condition and performance of the existing road network will, among other things, reduce the exposure of road assets to extreme climate events that are exacerbated by climate change.) • Are there descriptions of relevant investment plans or a projects pipeline (e.g., a dedicated budget to support an early transition to ultra-low emissions vehicles)? • Are there specific environmental targets (e.g., a target to achieve no net loss of biodiversity, or to reduce carbon emissions to a specified target level; initiatives for Module 1 – Step 1 20 leveraging ecosystems and ecosystem services to protect or supplement road infrastructure, etc.)? • Is decarbonization of road infrastructure considered a key transition area? Does it offer any guidance on decarbonization priorities and objectives in road projects? 3. Nationally Determined Contributions outlining short and mid-term climate action plans Focus areas: • What is the reduction emission target and which are the adaptation goals described in the NDC? • What is the contribution of the transport sector in the national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory? • Does it mention the transportation sector? What are the exact priorities and measures covered in the NDCs for the sector? 4. Long-term strategy (if available), outlining a country’s long-term vision on climate change Focus areas: • Does the LTS describe a long-term reduction emission goal? What is the time horizon? • Does it specify measures to achieve this goal? How do these measures relate to the transportation sector? For example, is a modal change or implementation of sustainable transport policies prescribing fuel or vehicle technologies mentioned? 5. National adaptation plans (or National Adaptation Programmes of Action or national adaptation strategies) providing a clear framework of how climate-change adaptation actions can be integrated into the development planning of all economic sectors Focus areas: • Does the NAP address climate vulnerabilities that are specific to road assets? Which climate risks are considered most prominent? • Does the NAP include an action plan to enhance climate adaptation and resilience? How is this related to road infrastructure? Example Brazil’s NAP identifies climate adaptation as a pressing need for the transportation sector and calls for actions that: combine ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) approaches in the design of new roads; promote climate mitigation and resilience; improve production and availability of information about extreme events; and increase the capacity of the transport sector to respond to extreme climate events by developing disaster response plans. Module 1 – Step 1 21 6. Climate and environmental legislation (enforced at either the national or sub- national or state level) Focus areas: • Does the legislation specify a “net zero” emissions target? Is this a cross-sectoral target, or does it include specific provisions for the transportation sector? • Which ministries are responsible for the implementation of the law? Is it the responsibility of a single ministry, or are several ministries involved? • What policy measures does the legislation entail, and how are these translated into national action plans and programs? For example, does the law promote the development of sustainable transportation, and what action plans have been developed toward that end? • Is climate adaptation incorporated into climate legislation? What are the main areas of focus? • Is there a national disaster risk management policy? Does it prescribe actions to enhance resilience against climate-induced impacts? Are there specific provisions for road assets? 7. Transport development plans (national or regional) Focus areas: • Is there a low carbon development plan for the transportation sector? • Does it prescribe sustainable transportation policies? How may the described policies affect the delivery, operation, and maintenance of road assets? Are there specific requirements/specifications for new road assets (e.g., policies to prevent modal shifts to high-carbon modes, or to reduce the use of private cars, etc.)? How does it treat rehabilitation programs for existing roads? • Which entities (i.e., ministries) are responsible for the implementation of the plans? 8. Bilateral agreements with neighboring or other countries, outlining the regime for transportation of passengers and for bilateral transit of goods (e.g., designated routes, border crossing permits) Focus areas: • Are there any agreements/commitments that promote sustainable practices for freight and passenger transport (e.g., bilateral trade agreements to promote sustainable biofuels)? How is this impacting traffic projections (volume and characteristics)? 9. Good practices and climate-related guidelines describing opportunities and entry points for integrating green attributes/practices in road projects (details for major climate taxonomies and the definition of eligible activities may be found in the Umbrella Toolkit (Insights 1.3 and 1.4) Module 1 – Step 1 22 OUTPUT The results of the mapping need to be reported in a systematic and comprehensive way to support future steps. Reporting Template A.1.12 is provided in Appendix A to guide the reporting process. IMPORTANT NOTE Effort and resources The more detailed the answers to the aforementioned prompts, the easier it will be to identify project-specific entry points and eventually achieve the highest alignment level with climate policies and targets. For further reading on the importance and benefits of alignment with climate policies, users are referred to the Umbrella Toolkit (Insight 1.5, Phase 0). 2 Indicative reporting templates are provided only for guidance purposes throughout the document. Module 1 – Step 2 23 Step 2 Screen Projects’ Alignment with Climate Policies This step examines the project’s scope and description relative to the mapped climate policies and the country’s national development goals SCOPE (outcome of Tool 1.1) and measures the project’s alignment using a simple scoring system. In case of misalignment, specific actions are proposed to re-adjust the project scope towards a more sustainable and climate-resilient pathway. The alignment process is performed in two stages, which are implemented during different phases of the project preparation. The PROCESS preliminary screening may be performed immediately after the project inception phase (when the only available information is the outline of the project scope and the need it addresses). This first-level screening is meant to confirm that the overall project’s scope aligns with (or at least does not deviate from) the national vision for climate mitigation and adaptation. The second-level screening may be performed towards the end of the project selection, and prior to the appraisal of the projects’ economic value. At this stage, the project's risk profile has been qualitatively assessed, and a preliminary discussion on adaptation/mitigation measures is underway. This is the right time to re-evaluate the project’s alignment with the national climate agenda (focusing now on specific project attributes) and re-adjust where necessary. TOOLS TOOL 1.2 Screening project’s alignment with climate policies • Climate alignment score (pre-screening and final result) OUTPUT • Actions to enhance the level of alignment (if deemed necessary) TOOL 1.2 Screening project’s alignment with climate policies TOOL 1.2 SCREENING PROJECT’S ALIGNMENT WITH CLIMATE POLICIES The tool may be used to qualitatively assess the project's climate profile and its alignment with the vision, goals, and targets described in major climate policies. The tool is intended to complement the methodology described in the Umbrella Toolkit (Module 1.1). Therefore, it is structured in the form of a checklist comprising four pillars: Module 1 – Step 2 24 • Overall alignment of the project’s scope with the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement framework (Pillar 1, or P1) • Overall alignment of the project’s scope with the national climate agenda (primarily described in the NDCs, NAPs, LTS and other relevant documents) (P2) • Specific interventions contributing to climate mitigation (P3) • Specific interventions contributing to climate adaptation and resilience of the project, and of the broader community (P4) The tool allows users to assign a qualitative score reflecting the performance of the project in each of the four pillars in order to identify areas where improvements may be possible. In 2022, multilateral development banks (MDBs) developed the Joint MDB Assessment Framework for Paris Alignment for Direct Investment Operations,3 which contains six building blocks (BBs): alignment with mitigation goals (BB1); adaptation and climate-resilient operations (BB2); accelerated contribution to the transition through climate finance (BB3); engagement and policy development support (BB4); reporting (BB5); and alignment of internal activities (BB6). It should be noted that the World Bank Group is committed to aligning financing flows with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. For the World Bank, the plan is to align all new operations by July 1, 2023. For International Finance Corporation (IFC) and MIGA, 85 percent of new operations will be aligned by July 1, 2023, and 100 percent will be aligned by July 1, 2025. It is expected that other MDBs will follow similar approaches. Hence, users are encouraged to ensure projects’ compatibilities with the above framework when performing the screening process. INSTRUCTIONS 1 Define the type of screening For a high-level screening (performed during the very early stages of the project), users may focus on the first two pillars (P1) and (P2) only. During the second-level screening (implemented towards the end of the project selection), it is recommended to use the entire checklist (P1 to P4). 2 Use the tool’s input module to score the performance of the project according to each of the four pillars. 3 Use the tool’s output module to calculate the project’s alignment score. 4 Propose an action plan for enhancing alignment and repeat scoring (ideally until full alignment is achieved). 3 MDBs (2021). BB1 and BB2 Technical Note Joint MDB Assessment Framework for Paris Alignment for Direct Investment Operation (Working Draft as of November 2021). https://www.eib.org/attachments/documents/cop26- mdb-paris-alignment-note-en.pdf. Module 1 – Step 2 25 The action plan should be targeted to pillars that have received relatively low scores. INPUT The following checklist groups the criteria contributing to a project’s alignment with national and international climate policies in relevant pillars (P1 to P4). Users are prompted to qualitatively assess the performance of the project in each of the four pillars, considering all the sub-criteria mentioned in the columns on the left. The goal is to be able to identify areas of poor alignment and seek improvements at an early stage—acknowledging that poor alignment may call into question the project’s eligibility for funding by several sources, including MDBs. Four Pillars for Appraising Alignment ALIGNMENT WITH THE SUSTAINABLE P1 DEVELOPMENT GOALS AND THE PARIS AGREEMENT FRAMEWORK Sub-criteria Characteristics/actions enhancing project’s alignment (non-exhaustive list of examples) What is the project's primary purpose, and • Ensuring the project can support goals such as SDG 1 how does it support the country’s (no poverty) and SDG 2 (no hunger) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)? Does the project support the country’s • Boosting public transport, easing border crossings, efforts to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) encouraging high-capacity trucks with harmonized emissions? standards, and promoting better driver training and certification • Solving congestion problems (which are responsible for increased CO2 emissions) Is climate adaptation an objective of the • Improving the mobility of the population that is project? currently hampered by frequent climate-related interruptions Does the project address greater overall • Increasing accessible public transport, especially for inclusion and gender equality, and does it people who are unable to drive or do not own private consider vulnerable groups? means of transportation (thus contributing towards social cohesion and gender inclusivity)4 4 WBG (2021). Green, Resilient and Inclusive Development (GRID) provides further guidance on gender aspects https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/9385bfef1c330ed6ed972dd9e70d0fb7-0200022021/green-resilient-and- inclusive-development-grid Module 1 – Step 2 26 P2 DOES THE PROJECT ALIGN WITH NATIONAL CLIMATE POLICIES? Sub-criteria Characteristics/actions enhancing project’s alignment (non-exhaustive list of examples) How does the project support the • Supporting the use of new fuel sources implementation of the country’s NDCs and • Using the new road network as a platform to apply tax sustainable transportation agenda? and financial incentives (e.g., for fuel consumption, ride sharing) Does the project contribute to the GHG • Reducing trip length and travel time, hence reducing reduction target prescribed in the NDC for total GHGs (compared to the do-nothing approach) the transportation section (if applicable)? • Setting and regularly monitoring specific GHG emission reduction targets • Considering the impact of the induced traffic How does the project comply with the • Supporting the modal shift envisaged in the NDC (e.g., transportation-related climate mitigation shift from road to bus rapid transit systems in urban and adaptation elements of the country’s areas) NDCs? • Including lanes for non-motorized transport (bicycles and pedestrian mobility) and a more holistic approach to climate-smart mobility (“avoid, shift, improve” approach, such as non-motorized transport solutions, public transport tariff adjustments during the day to reduce peak hour traffic etc.) Have the country’s NDCs or NAP identified • Yes, road systems are particularly vulnerable to particular vulnerabilities for road assets? If climate risks, and their vulnerability is expected to yes, how is the project intended to intensify due to climate change; the road design will address them? take into consideration climate change Module 1 – Step 2 27 PROJECT’S POTENTIAL TO REDUCE GHG P3 EMISSIONS. DOES THE PROJECT INCORPORATE SMALL-SCALE MITIGATION? Sub-criteria Characteristics/actions enhancing project’s alignment (non-exhaustive list of examples) Will the project include small-scale climate • Provisions for solar roads,5 roofs, and photovoltaic mitigation components? integrated noise barriers. • Use of solar powered toll booths. Will the project include activities to • Congestion charging or road pricing protocols, parking avoid/reduce GHG emissions? management, car-free city areas, low-emission zones. • Use of low-carbon marking material for pavements. • Use of low-maintenance bitumen or graphene-based surfacing. Will the project include components that • Charging stations and other infrastructure for electric promote low-carbon and efficient vehicles, or hydrogen or dedicated biofuel fueling. transport? • Digital solutions and programs dedicated to reducing GHG emissions. Will the project adapt NbS for protection • Use of NbS for road protection against flooding, against climate risks? coastal erosion, or other climate risks. Will the road include energy efficiency • Installation of energy-efficient appliances and provisions during construction and equipment operation? • Use of electric vehicles/machinery during construction • low-emission vehicles in the road operator’s fleet • Segregated road section used for compressed natural gas (CNG) fueled or purely electric bus rapid transit (BRT) • Automated construction and use of pre-fabricated parts to reduce construction time (and related emissions) Will road construction comply with the • Use of modified bitumen with recycled polyethylene principles of a circular economy? and recycled tires • Use of warm mix asphalt6 or recycled asphalt • Use of recycled aggregates as a road base material Does the project promote the sustainable • Replanting of removed trees use and management of ecosystems? • Installation of wildlife crossings 5 A solar road is a road whose surface is covered by photovoltaic cells, in such a way that vehicles can travel over them and generate electricity or alternative energy. 6 Warm mix asphalt (WMA) is a trial asphalt material that is produced at a temperature that is 40oC lower than the traditional 190oC used for hot mix asphalt, resulting in 15 percent less carbon emitted. Module 1 – Step 2 28 P4 INCORPORATION OF A SPECIFIC STRATEGY FOR ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE Sub-criteria Characteristics/actions enhancing project’s alignment (non-exhaustive list of examples) Does the project incorporate methods to • Perform detailed risk studies for current and future reduce the project’s climate conditions (e.g., flood risk mapping, geohazard exposure/vulnerability to climate risks? mapping) How will the project adapt to the adverse • Design and appraise adaptation strategies (e.g., road impact of climate change? drainage system) for different climate scenarios Does the project promote/facilitate the • Design adaptation measures based on the principles integration of activities that support of adaptive/robust planning (e.g., provisions to adaptive management in a changing replace the rolling stock of a privately operated road climate, through integrated observation/ to allow continuation of operations over water- monitoring and use of decision support flooded sections) tools? Does the project enhance climate • Design the road network with strict technical resilience within the broader ecosystem? specifications to guarantee safety in the mobility of passengers even under extreme climatic conditions, thus contributing to community resilience. Is it possible to include some examples here? Does the project incorporate NbS for • Assess potential environment impacts and propose climate adaptation? contingency measures by conducting a thorough scoping exercise prior to the construction of bridges and culverts7 • Include NbS in adaptation measures and explore options (e.g., plantation of mangroves at the coastal boundary of the road to prevent/mitigate coastal erosion) Will the project include road transport • Install smart information systems for disaster risk emergency procedures/equipment for management during extreme events climate risks? • Prepare/update disaster response plans Does the project design consider aspects • Include gendered vulnerabilities in the climate risk related to the protection of women and analysis vulnerable populations from the impacts • Ensure adaptation measures are gender neutral or of climate change? gender inclusive8 Does the project mainstream gender • Run project preparation in parallel with a gender concerns in its programs and activities? action plan, to ensure that women have equal 7 Bridge and culvert activities involve the construction of permanent engineering structures across watercourses and larger rivers, impacting the water environment (e.g., the groundwater hydrology and quality) and the river ecosystem (e.g., removal of native vegetation, disturbance, fragmentation or loss of terrestrial and aquatic habitats and ecology). 8 WBG (2021). Green, Resilient and Inclusive Development (GRID) provides further guidance on gender aspects https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/9385bfef1c330ed6ed972dd9e70d0fb7-0200022021/green-resilient-and- inclusive-development-grid Module 1 – Step 2 29 Sub-criteria Characteristics/actions enhancing project’s alignment (non-exhaustive list of examples) opportunities with men to participate and receive the project benefits • Define (sex disaggregated) indicators, outcomes and/or output level results that will be relevant for proper monitoring to be carried out • Include terms of reference (TORs) that stipulate gender expertise and concrete deliverables during preparation and implementation OUTPUT Following the above process, users are expected to have identified the areas where the project is well aligned with the Paris Agreement goals, as well as the ones where further improvement is necessary. Users should keep in mind that MDBs will not be supporting projects that are not fully Paris aligned, according to the Joint MDB Assessment Framework for Paris Alignment for Direct Investment Operations. BOX 1.1 SMART ROADS ARE HARVESTING WATER IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Road infrastructure development across sub-Saharan Africa is a crucial ingredient to fostering growth and productivity. But new roads may often change the landscape, affect water flows to wetlands, cause landslides and flooding, and impact the livelihoods of rural populations. According to a recent survey, more than a third of households in Tigray, northern Ethiopia, reported flooding as a result of new roads, with negative effects on crop production for roughly one in 10 households. A promising solution that has been increasingly applied in arid sub-Saharan areas is to exploit road infrastructure as a means to harvest water. The water intercepted by road bodies can then be guided to recharge areas or surface storage, or applied directly to the land. Roads can also be used to manage water catchments by controlling the speed of runoff, compartmentalizing and mitigating flood runoff, and influencing the sedimentation process in the catchments. A scoping study in Somaliland, a region facing low water availability for agriculture and livestock, found that the water harvest (from an annual average rainfall of 300 millimeters) has the potential to reach up to 300 cubic meters of water per kilometer of road per year. Source: Green Roads for Water (2022). Integrating climate change adaptation and water management in the design and construction of roads: Somaliland – Scoping Study, and Awareness and Fundraising. Module 2 30 MODULE 2 Module 2 31 Module 2 INCORPORATING CLIMATE CONSIDERATIONS IN PROJECT SELECTION Preparatory groundwork and team building STEP 1 Climate Risk assessment STEP 3 STEP 2 GHG Footprint of road project Strategies to reduce climate risks STEP 4 Strategies to reduce GHG emissions Module 2 32 This module comprises four steps (preceded by a preparatory Step 0), and each step includes different tools to perform certain actions, as described in the ensuing text. This module provides tools and examples to support agencies in: ▪ Deciding whether it is safe to proceed with the project, or if it would be preferable to change the road alignment (to avoid locations that are safe now but may become risky as climatic conditions change) – Step 1. ▪ Identifying ways to protect, preserve, and improve road assets and services to withstand the stresses imposed by the changing climate, while building resilience for the broader community – Step 2. ▪ Diverting from traditional GHG-emitting adaptation strategies (i.e., building a dike to protect a road from flooding) and review soft-engineering solutions (e.g., monitoring) or nature-based solutions that may (either alone, or in combination with traditional grey infrastructure9) provide the necessary protection – Step 3. Preliminarily assessing the GHG reduction that can be achieved by investing in e-mobility or small-scale mitigation (e.g., LED lighting in roads, use of electronic machinery in road construction) – Step 4. 9Grey infrastructure is a term adopted from the water management discipline to describe traditional interventions using man-made, constructed assets that are designed to avoid any type of ecosystem growing on them. Module 2 - Step 0 33 Step 0 Preparatory Groundwork Step 0 Preparatory Groundwork This is a preparatory step to help the entity in charge10 formulate the scope of the assessment and decide what resources are needed and who (in SCOPE terms of expertise) should be involved to effectively address the range of issues encountered. The process begins with a decision-tree exercise (Tool 2.1) that engages users in formulating the specific objectives of the assessment, whether the PROCESS assessment is a high-level screening of hazards in the project area (typically performed prior to transaction structuring), or a more in-depth assessment of the various components of the road network. Based on the decision-tree results, a list of minimum requirements (in terms of resources, personnel, and technical data) is proposed (Tool 2.2) that is necessary to accomplish the specific objectives of the assessment. TOOLS TOOL 2.1 Climate assessment type decision tree TOOL 2.2 Climate assessment checklist: resources and staff requirements • Decision on the type of assessment: system-level or asset-level OUTPUT • Required qualifications of the assessment team 10 The implementing authority/agency may vary depending on country/state/county level. The term “entity in charge” is used throughout this document to refer to the responsible entity. Module 2 - Step 0 34 TOOL 2.1 CLIMATE ASSESSMENT TYPE DECISION TREE TOOL 2.1 Climate assessment type decision tree This tool is in the form of a decision tree (see Figure 2.1) to find out the recommended level of climate assessment. Assessments may be categorized in two broad classes (although different combinations may also be valid): ▪ System-level assessments aiming at a bird’s eye screening of the network can be performed internally with minimum external assistance. This type of assessment is commonly performed in advance of a transaction structuring when the road site (alignment) and modality have not yet been confirmed. ▪ Asset-level assessments are those that may require support from expert personnel. Asset- level assessments are performed during the structuring phase, when the road attributes (alignment, assets, modes of transportation) have been designed. INPUT In order to inform the decision tree, users are prompted to follow the questionnaire provided below. Has the project design been decided? 1 Depending on the timing of the assessment in Phase 1 of the PPP cycle, the description of the project outline may vary substantially. Suppose the assessment is performed during the very early stages of the project. At that stage, the authority may have nothing specific in mind, apart from a very generic notion of the project underway (e.g., building a new peripheral highway to solve a city's congestion problem or improving rural mobility by converting key unpaved arteries to modern paved roads). It is also possible that the project alignment has not been permanently decided (e.g., the entity in charge is equally considering the possibility to proceed with a coastal road or an uphill highway project), let alone the specific technical aspects of the project. In that case, the objective would be to perform a high-level comparison of one or more alternatives, just to explore the potential risks or benefits that may tip the balance in favor of one solution over the other. This can be efficiently done by executing a system-level approach. 2 Is the road alignment known? If, on the other hand, the location of the road network has been decided (and the specific alignment is known), the objective of the assessment would be to identify the locations with the highest climate exposure of the alignment and conceptualize an appropriate risk-reduction strategy, in parallel to the corresponding environmental, social and governance frameworks (e.g., the Module 2 - Step 0 35 Equator Principles, IFC Performance Standards). Depending on the resources available, either a system-level or an asset-level approach could be appropriate. 3 Is the technical solution of the project known? Depending on whether the assessment is performed prior to or after the project's pre-feasibility study, the depth of the investigation of the analysis will also differ. If the preliminary technical design is available, it is more appropriate to proceed with an asset-level assessment that is more reliable for accounting for GHG emissions and identifying system criticalities. OUTPUT Depending on the answers given above, users should be able to decide on the right type of analysis following the decision tree of Figure 2.1. FIGURE 2.1 Decision tree for choosing the right type Module 2 - Step 0 36 TOOL 2.2 CLIMATE ASSESSMENT CHECKLIST: RESOURCES AND STAFF REQUIREMENTS TOOL 2.2 Climate assessment checklist: resources and staff requirements This tool helps agencies prepare to assess a road project’s climate risk, by listing key data, resources, and team qualifications that are necessary to complete an adequate assessment. Specific descriptions of the tasks associated with each team member are provided alongside the respective tools in the subsequent sections (Steps 1 and 2). Depending on the output of Tool 2.1,the team’s composition and the level of involvement of each team member may vary. It is at the discretion of the entity in charge whether an entire team/firm or individual consultants are to be invited. Not every team member mentioned below will be actively engaged in all four steps of the assessment; each one may be called upon at a particular milestone to provide relevant guidance and expertise. REQUIRED DATA CHECKLIST SYSTEM-LEVEL (PRE-TRANSACTIONAL) ASSET-LEVEL (STRUCTURING) ASSESSMENTS ASSESSMENTS Project location Project location ✓ Outline and main junctions ✓ Road alignment: spatial and vertical ✓ Technical drawings provided by the pre- feasibility analysis General road description ✓ Rural road, urban road, highway ✓ Traffic volume data General road description ✓ Supported transportation modes (e- ✓ Rural road, urban road, highway mobility, autonomous vehicles and ✓ Road capacity (number of lanes) buses, etc.) ✓ Supported transportation modes (e- ✓ Particular construction features (e.g., mobility, autonomous vehicles and buses, tunnels, elevated highways, etc.) etc.) ✓ Particular construction features (e.g. tunnels, elevated highways, etc.) Hazard data ✓ Asset inventorying (broad classification and ✓ Online sources providing country-level geographical coordinates) data ✓ Climate projections included in NAPs (if available) Hazard data ✓ Online sources providing country-level data ✓ Regional hazards maps (e.g., inundation maps) ✓ Climate projections included in NAPs (if available) ✓ Studies from similar projects to be used as Module 2 - Step 0 37 TEAM QUALIFICATIONS CHECKLIST SYSTEM-LEVEL (PRE-TRANSACTIONAL) ASSET-LEVEL (STRUCTURING) ASSESSMENTS ASSESSMENTS ✓ Engineering consultants ✓ Engineering consultants with experience in transportation projects (not (structural, transportation, hydraulic, geotechnical) necessarily transportation engineers). who can provide input on the vulnerability of road infrastructure assets as well as on their exposure to various climate-related hazards. ✓ Local contractors who have been actively engaged in the construction of road infrastructure in the broader area. They are ✓ Geographic information system (GIS) expected to provide useful insights on regional risks, specialists empirical data, and site-specific construction costs. who can retrieve hazard data for online datasets and spatially analyze and display transportation assets and vulnerability information. ✓ Government/municipal stakeholders who can provide insights on the priorities of the national strategy. ✓ Climate risk analysts who can interpret hazard maps and can provide ✓ Local communities information and insight on historical climate data and who can assist governments with data to assess risks. future projections. ✓ Climate and environmental team ✓ Asset management and cost consultants that can help in the assessment of climatic hazards and familiar with construction/replacement and their future projections on the region, and can provide maintenance costs. insight into how the technical design might impact ecosystems and how natural ecosystems can be used ✓ Personnel with basic experience in GHG for protection against climate change. emissions accounting ✓ Government/municipal stakeholders ✓ Gender experts (same as in the system-level approach) who can identify key gender issues and assess if the project has the potential to promote gender equality and/or women’s empowerment, or is likely to have an ✓ Environmental staff adverse gender impact or increase women’s exposure (same as in the system-level approach) to risks. ✓ Gender experts (same as in the system-level approach) Module 2 - Step 1 38 Step 1 Assess Climate Risks Step 1 Assess Climate Risks The scope of this step is to help users recognize, and qualitatively assess, the climate risks affecting their road projects. The assessment will take into SCOPE account both internal risks (i.e., the risk of damage affecting a road asset and its availability) and external risks (i.e., a serviceable road network with reduced traffic/ridership or accessibility). The identification of these risks, early in the planning stage, will inform resilience and adaptation priorities and guide the decisions of the next step. The methodology for assessing climate risks is described in detail in the Umbrella Toolkit (Modules 1.2 and 2.1). The underlying assumption is that PROCESS the risk of an infrastructure or a component may be defined as a function of the hazard intensity (which includes the likelihood of the event), its exposure (expressing the plausibility of the hazard affecting the infrastructure or the component), and its vulnerability (which expresses the sensitivity of the infrastructure to the specific type of threat), according to the fundamental risk equation: RISK = HAZARD x [VULNERABILITY x EXPOSURE] The risk estimation is performed by means of a qualitative risk-matrix synthesis. First, users are requested to identify the climate hazards that may potentially affect a road project and consider future projections to estimate the future hazard level (i.e., increase/decrease of the current trend). Then the project exposure and project vulnerability are investigated (either at a system level or by assessing the performance of different asset categories). Finally, the external risks are qualitatively assessed and added to the project’s climate risk matrix. Module 2 - Step 1 39 TOOLS TOOL 2.3 Climate hazard mapping considering future projections TOOL 2.4 Assessment of project’s exposure to hazard TOOL 2.5 Vulnerability assessment of major asset categories TOOL 2.6 Climate risk assessment TOOL 2.7 Assessment of climate change-induced externalities and impacts on the road network • A qualitative risk matrix, per hazard, indicating the risk of physical damage and operational disruption of the road network OUTPUT • Prioritization/ranking of the most significant risks that will be passed onto Step 2 to identify relevant adaptation measures TOOL 2.3 CLIMATE HAZARDS MAPPING CONSIDERING FUTURE PROJECTIONS TOOL 2.3 Climate hazards mapping considering future projections This tool assists users in defining the climate hazards that could cause either physical damage or disruption and potentially affect the road network. It provides guidance on how to identify hazards and how to qualitatively assess their intensity at a preliminary level. For ease of reference, climate hazards are classified into four broad categories (temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise, and wind), each one representing a climate-related variable, the changes of which may directly impact the intensity and frequency of the hazards in the relevant category. For example, an increase in the average air temperature will increase the number of very hot days and heat waves, impact freeze- thaw cycles, and increase wildfires. A brief description of the four weather variables, their associated hazards, and the projected impacts on the road network is provided in Figure 2.2. Module 2 - Step 1 40 FIGURE 2.2 Climate-change risk to roads Module 2 - Step 1 41 INPUT 1 Identify the country-specific climate-related hazards relevant to the road project. Country/region-specific climate-related hazards can be found at the following (indicative) sources: • Climate Change Knowledge Portal (World Bank Group) • Think Hazard! (GFDRR - World Bank Group) • Climate links (USAID) • The Global Risk Data Platform (GRDP) • Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Users may also refer to Library B.2.1 in Appendix B for a comprehensive list of climate hazards that may affect roads or road components. 2 Exploit local knowledge and experience to confirm/revise hazard findings This may include already available regional impact maps (that illustrate sea level rise, temperature change, precipitation) and previous hazard studies. Past experiences in the area can also provide a foundation for identifying the most frequently encountered weather events or characterizing high-risk regions (e.g., a region known for unstable soils that has experienced frequent landslides due to precipitation in the past). Advice on regional risks may also be sought from local construction contractors or district engineers. 3 Consider referring to climatologists and GIS specialists Agencies may seek for higher-precision hazard data and maps in case an asset-level assessment is performed. 4 Decide on the timeframe of the assessment The minimum timeframe of assessing climate hazards shall be the PPP life cycle. However, the public party may wish to extend the timeframe for the study, given that the life cycle of the infrastructure may be longer than the duration of the PPP contract (e.g., infrastructure design life). 5 Use the scoring system provided in the graphic below to estimate the current hazard level as a function of the intensity (and duration) of the hazard and its likelihood of occurrence (or frequency of the event). 6 Determine the future trend of hazards due to climate change (i.e., increasing, decreasing, or stable) At this point, it is considered sufficient to observe the global —and, if available, the regional—future projections of the corresponding weather variable and make reasonable guesses about the future trend of the hazard under Module 2 - Step 1 42 consideration. For example, if the project region is showing an increasing trend (and if no other data are available), it is reasonable to anticipate that extreme rainfall events will also increase, and so will flood events. Country-level information on future climate trends may be retrieved from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (World Bank Group). 7 Estimate the future hazard level by combining current hazard intensity and future trend For example, for a “medium” current hazard level with an “increasing” trend, the future hazard level will be “high.” OUTPUT The above process will result in a preliminary compilation of the profile of climate hazards affecting the project. Such hazard data need to be reported in order to be used as inputs in the subsequent risk estimates. Reporting Template A.2.1 provided in Appendix A (or any similar template) may be used for listing the findings of the present tool. IMPORTANT NOTE Future Climate Projections Based on RCPs and SSPs It is common practice to project future climate conditions based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), to represent different trajectories of radiative forcing levels over time. Out of the four RCP scenarios, RCP 8.5 represents the highest emissions scenario, whereas RCP 2.6 represents the lowest emissions scenario. RCP 2.6 should generally be avoided when making projections, because it is overly optimistic compared to recent emissions trends. In 2016, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were introduced as an update and a substantial expansion over the RCPs. Available through Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the SSP framework contains a total of eight different multi-model climate trajectories based on alternative/plausible scenarios of future emissions and land-use changes, by which society and ecosystems will evolve in the 21st century. Global scale predictions of climate parameters for different SSPs are available in the WorldClim database. Module 2 - Step 1 43 TOOL 2.4 ASSESSMENT OF PROJECT’S EXPOSURE TO HAZARD TOOL 2.4 Assessment of project’s exposure to hazard This tool may be used to assess the exposure of the road network to the hazards identified by Tool 2.3. Exposure provides information about which assets or locations are more likely to be affected by a hazard, based on certain characteristics (e.g., elevation, proximity to coastline). For example, an asset will be exposed to storm surge if located along the shoreline, but it may not be if it is located farther inland. This analysis will be important in determining site selection to the extent possible, and designing climate resilient options. When regional impact maps are available and the road alignment is known, it is possible to estimate exposure by comparing the geographical spread of the hazard with the road alignment (i.e., assets within the impact zone will be affected, whereas those outside may not be). If such information is not available, past experiences and historic data can be used to identify hazard thresholds that are regularly impacting road networks. For example, experience may have shown that coastal floods do not impact assets above a certain elevation. INPUT Retrieve the regional impact maps of the region . If not available, continue to the 1 next step. 2 Review the road network11 alignment and determine which portion of the network is outside the impact zone of the hazard. If the information is not available, perform the assessment based on empirical thresholds (defined by the entity in charge or by local experts). 3 Use the scoring system provided below to assign exposure levels to asset categories or to the entire road network. 11The terms “road project” and “road network” are used interchangeably throughout the docume nt to describe the entire road project, including all of its assets. Module 2 - Step 1 44 OUTPUT The exposure information may be described using the exposure matrix provided in Reporting Templates A.2.2a (for system-level assessments) or A.2.2b (for asset-level assessments). Indicative templates for the reporting may be found in Appendix A. Note that the asset categories listed in the templates are indicative. Users are advised to modify the tables as appropriate. TOOL 2.5 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR ASSET CATEGORIES TOOL 2.5 Vulnerability assessment of major asset categories The tool may be used to assess the vulnerability of the various road components to the hazards identified previously (Tool 2.3). Vulnerability measures the sensitivity of an asset to a climate hazard and reflects the level of the expected damage if the hazard were to occur. Hence, if the damage is expected to be high, the vulnerability of the asset to the specific hazard is considered to be high and if the damage is expected to be low, the vulnerability is considered low The vulnerability of an asset depends on the asset typology (i.e., different assets are sensitive to different hazards) and the specifics of the technical design (e.g., materials, dimensions, loads). For example, an unpaved road section is more vulnerable to flooding, as opposed to a paved road section with a properly designed drainage system. For the purposes of this preliminary analysis, the vulnerability will be assessed empirically, based on engineering judgement. Less experienced users may wish to consult the supplemental material in Library B.2.2 in Appendix B, which lists some key technical design features (called indicators) and how they affect vulnerability. For example, the existence of a clay subgrade will increase the vulnerability of a road pavement to flood, hence “clay subgrade” will be a vulnerability indicator for road pavements experiencing floods. This tool is expected to support asset-based assessments. Users performing a system-level assessment may skip this step. Module 2 - Step 1 45 INPUT 1 Asset inventorying: List the asset categories that are relevant to the specific PPP project (e.g., bridges, earthworks, tunnels). An indicative list of road asset categories is provided in Reporting Template A.2.3b (Appendix A). Users may adjust or extend this list based on the specific features of each project alternative and available details. 2 Find vulnerability indicators (involvement of experts required): Use Libraries B.2.2 (a-d) to identify vulnerability indicators that are applicable to your project. Repeat the step for all asset categories and hazard types. 3 Assess vulnerability: Use the scoring system provided in the graphic below to assign vulnerability level(s) to asset categories. OUTPUT Vulnerability data may be summarized using Reporting Template A.2.3b in Appendix A. Note that the asset categories presented in the template are indicative. Users are advised to modify the table rows as appropriate. IMPORTANT NOTE INVOLVE STAKEHOLDERS THROUGHOUT THE PROCESS An indicator-based approach will never perfectly capture local conditions or asset-specific details. Engaging consultants or local stakeholders, such as contractors, emergency managers, and engineers, can be insightful when refining indicators and scoring the vulnerability of assets. Module 2 - Step 1 46 TOOL 2.6 CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT TOOL 2.6 Climate risk assessment The tool may be used to assess the internal climate-induced risks of a road, considering the effects of the changing climate. Following the definitions provided in the Umbrella Toolkit (Modules 1.2 and 2.1), internal climate risks originate from hazards that are posed directly to the project and could damage the infrastructure itself and/or its availability. As such, they describe the likelihood of a road experiencing physical damage (e.g., flooded road sections, and destroyed bridges that require rehabilitation or replacement) and business interruption (e.g., loss of revenue generated by closed road links, and delays and increased travel time for users). Tool 2.6 can be used in combination with Tool 2.7, to estimate external risks originating from hazards affecting not the road network per se, but its broader socioeconomic system, in order to estimate the total (internal and external) climate risk of the road project. INPUT 1 Calculate the climate risk level of each hazard using current (i.e., not future) values for the hazard intensity: • Estimate the product of Hazard x (Exposure x Vulnerability), using the two- dimensional risk matrix provided below (where the color shading illustrates the different risk levels). First, combine Exposure (score appears in the first row) with Vulnerability (score appears in the first column) to estimate their product (i.e., EV). Repeat the process to calculate the risk as the product of Hazard x EV (i.e., read hazard intensity in the first column and combine with the EV score displayed in the first row). • Example calculation: low x (medium x low) = low x low = low. • For asset-based assessments, risk is calculated per asset category, before estimating the total risk of the road (by factoring in the contribution of individual assets and their criticality) – Reporting Template A.2.4b. • For system-based assessments, the risk of the road is estimated as Hazard X (Exposure) – Reporting Template A.2.4a. Low Medium High Low Low Low Medium Medium Low Medium High High Medium High High Module 2 - Step 1 47 Repeat the Step 1 process, using future hazard intensity indicators, to calculate 2 the expected future climate risk level of the road (for each hazard). Describe potential consequences for the road network (corresponding to future 3 risk estimates) using the example consequence matrix provided below. Consequences should include the expected level of damage and disruption estimates. 4 Roughly estimate direct and indirect loss using the consequence score provided below as a reference. • Direct loss may be calculated as: % damage x (Total Reconstruction Cost), where % damage is an average damage level of all road assets. • Indirect loss (applicable to user-pays concessions) may be calculated as: Downtime (in days) x Daily Revenues (on the entire network or the affected portion of the network). It is noted that this is an upper-bound estimate that ignores the network topology and possible traffic re-adjustments (i.e., it assumes that the road network does not provide alternative routes for bypassing the damaged section). 5 Repeat the process for all hazards affecting the network. OUTPUT The overall climate risk of the road network may be assessed at this preliminary stage by aggregating the results of the above process. Reporting Template A.2.5 in Appendix A may be used to assist this process. Module 2 - Step 1 48 TOOL 2.7 CLIMATE CHANGE-INDUCED EXTERNALITIES AND IMPACTS ON THE ROAD NETWORK TOOL 2.7 Climate-change-induced externalities and impacts on the road network The tool may be used to perform a preliminary screening of the broader socioeconomic impacts of climate change and their interactions with the project underway. These interactions constitute external risks (or opportunities) to the operations and services of the road network that are beyond the project’s control. Therefore, it is important to outline these risks early in the project selection process, estimate the severity of their impacts, and plan for contingencies when possible. It may even be advisable to abandon or restructure projects that experience high external risks that cannot be mitigated. Using the tool, users may identify potential roots of external risks and their consequences to road projects. CONSULTANTS: The process would benefit from the involvement of infrastructure risk experts and PPP experts (see Tool 2.2 for qualifications). INPUT Risk identification is performed using the table below. Users are advised to go through the table items that are most relevant to their project; evaluate the external risk level as low, Medium, or high (specifying risk sources that are particular to the project under consideration); and outline possible contingencies. It is noted that the provided entry points are only indicative and are not expected to be applicable to all road networks; hence, it is recommended that the list be extended as appropriate. TABLE 2.1 External climate-induced risks and consequences for road projects External Factors that can be Impacted Example Consequences by Climate Change for Roads Connecting infrastructure: Climate change may Damage in a bus terminal station will affect the affect the performance of an external system availability of bus service even if the road surface (e.g., a terminal station, connector/feeder is available. roads), thereby critically impacting the Flooding of areas that feed the road network with performance of the infrastructure itself. drivers will negatively impact the revenues of the road (due to decreased toll/ticket collection). Land use changes, whereby a specific area of Change of land use from agricultural to residential land is converted from one use to another. can affect runoff generation. In combination with an expected increase in extreme precipitation events due to climate change, flooding may occur more frequently, and may cause operational disruption to the network. Module 2 - Step 1 49 External Factors that can be Impacted Example Consequences by Climate Change for Roads Geomorphological and environmental changes: Wildfires may not directly cause physical damage Climate-related hazards may affect the to a road project, but they may completely alter its surrounding environment, morphology and/or surrounding environment. As such, the road’s surrounding infrastructure, and, consequently, exposure to flooding may increase because affect the operation and even the exposure and destroyed plants will no longer protect the vulnerability of the project. infrastructure from threatening runoff. Technological changes: Invention and practice of Technological advancements may provide new technologies and innovative fields that may opportunities for the project to adopt innovative disrupt (in a positive or negative manner) the techniques that may positively impact the traffic regular operation of the project when combined capacity of the road network through real-time with climate risks. traffic control measures, Internet of Things, and integration of smart materials for road asset construction. Demographic changes to the characteristics of Different segments of the population make human population and population segments. different use of the project’s service, and these These may refer to population distribution, age, uses are associated with different vulnerabilities marital status, occupation, income, education that can increase due to climate change. level, and other statistical measures that may Changes in annual income, or population growth, influence the project. might increase demand for the infrastructure (e.g., could increase traffic) and by extension the associated risk in case of a life-threatening event. On the other hand, increased traffic conditions will positively affect opportunities for investment. Transport changes: Emerging technologies that The introduction of electric/autonomous vehicles will facilitate travelling and at the same time may affect the technical specifications of the increase or decrease GHG emissions. network and the supporting infrastructure (e.g., provisions for electric chargers, reduced lane width and more space for green planting). Improper planning for the transport conditions of the future may incur increased rehabilitation costs. Policy and regulation changes: Evolution of Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) national and worldwide guidelines and considerations and carbon taxes are likely to regulations on sustainability and climate change. affect the demand or viability of certain economic activities. OUTPUT Given that, in most cases, external risks are not mitigable by means of design, their timely identification is of paramount importance. Users are hence advised to carefully evaluate them and document the results in detail. Reporting Template A.2.6 in Appendix A may be used for this purpose. Module 2 - Step 2 50 Step 2 Select Adaptation Strategies To Reduce Climate Step 2 Risks Select Adaptation Strategies To Reduce Climate Risks To pre-select among several adaptation options those that can most drastically reduce the project-specific climate risks while maximizing the SCOPE positive socio-environmental impact of the project. The adaptation strategies are combined with the mitigation measures of Step 3 to form the long-term climate plan for the road project under consideration, the economic value of which will be assessed as part of Module 3. The process starts with a detailed mapping of all possible adaptation solutions relevant to the project’s climate risks (Tool 2.8). Each option is PROCESS associated with a risk reduction potential, a cost level, a GHG emission indicator, and a list of benefits. Users are then asked to conceptualize combinations of adaptation options—or adaptation strategies—that offer the requested protection level (i.e., comfortable level of risk). The alternative adaptation strategies are appraised, taking into consideration their overall socio-environmental impact, and adaptation priorities are identified (Tool 2. 9). TOOLS TOOL 2.8 High-level screening of climate adaptation strategies TOOL 2.9 A participatory decision-support tool for appraising climate adaption strategies A ranking of adaptation strategies and their associated costs, savings, and benefits. OUTPUT Module 2 - Step 2 51 TOOL 2.8 HIGH-LEVEL SCREENING OF CLIMATE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TOOL 2.8 High-level screening of climate adaptation strategies This tool will guide users through the process of structuring climate adaptation strategies that are appropriate for the level of anticipated climate risk. Adaptation strategies may include: ▪ Structural interventions (i.e., hard-engineering solutions) aimed at increasing the robustness of the design ▪ Soft-engineering solutions (e.g., Internet of Things or systems for disaster warning and management) that cannot prevent the damage from taking place but may alleviate its consequences ▪ Changes in the design/alignment of a road or a road segment/component aimed at reducing the exposure of the project ▪ Nature-based solutions that protect the infrastructure while offering additional climate mitigation and environmental benefits to the project. A detailed description of adaptation categories and relevant examples are provided in the Umbrella Toolkit (Module 2.2). INPUT The tool is meant to be used in combination with Libraries B.2.3 (a-d) in Appendix 2, which include a non-exhaustive list of adaptation measures for the most prominent climate hazards and road asset categories. 1 Start the process with the climate hazard that is associated with the highest risk. Consult the risk report of Tool 2.6 to find out which asset categories contribute 2 the most to the risk (asset categories with no/low risk may be disregarded). This step is only applicable to an asset-level assessment; if a system-level assessment is performed, this step may be skipped. 3 Identify adaptation measures. Refer to Libraries B.2.3 (a-d) in Appendix 2, and look for applicable adaptation measures (i.e., appropriate for the specific hazard and the asset under consideration). If a system-level assessment is performed, check adaptation solutions generally applicable to road sections or pavements. 4 Combine adaptation measures. Define a comfortable level of risk, and combine adaptation options that can reduce the risk below the maximum acceptable level. This step may include combinations of more than one adaptation option. For example, suppose a road is expected to experience increased flood risk, and the Module 2 - Step 2 52 intention is to reduce the risk to the minimum feasible. In that case, the team should search for adaptation measures that separately or collectively achieve a high level of risk reduction. These may include interventions to increase the drainage capacity of road sections, in combination with the installation of a runoff water management system to reduce the level of water that eventually reaches the road. 5 Conceptualize alternative adaptation strategies. Review adaptation strategies and generate alternatives by replacing (where possible) hard engineering solutions with nature-based or soft engineering solutions. 6 Repeat the process for other climate hazards. OUTPUT Results may be summarized using Reporting Template A.2.7 in Appendix A. It is generally considered good practice to come up with two to five alternative strategies; these will be further evaluated in Tool 2.9. BOX 2.1 GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE IN URBAN STREETS TO SUPPORT TRADITIONAL WATER DRAINAGE SYSTEMS Green infrastructure can help reduce flooding and water pollution by capturing, storing, conveying, attenuating, filtrating, infiltrating, or soaking stormwater in natural ways. It simultaneously provides a form of natural relief to the road infrastructure, improves the street aesthetic, and benefits the community. Although the components and processes involved in green infrastructure are vast, some representative examples are listed below and schematically illustrated in Figure B2.1.1. FIGURE B2.1.1 Adding green water management solutions in urban road sections (adapted from Global Designing Cities Initiative | Global Designing Cities Initiative) Module 2 - Step 2 53 Infiltration components (e.g., soakways, infiltration trenches/basins, rain gardens), capture surface water runoff and allow it to soak and filter through to the subsoil layer, before returning it to the water table. Although the specific components of an infiltration component may vary, they generally consist of an organic top layer with vegetation overlaying a filter media. The area is normally planted with native species that are tolerant to elevated contaminant levels and fluctuations in soil moisture. Permeable paving allows rainfall to move through the pavement to the soil beneath and provides water to nearby landscaped areas. Applications of permeable paving may be in the form of block pavers with infiltration gaps between pavers, or porous material with infiltration gaps within the material. Swales are shallow and wide vegetated channels designed to store and/or convey runoff and remove pollutants. They are an alternative to a piped drainage system, where space and grade are available. Example application: In order to mitigate the flood risk in the Sangdo-dong area in Seoul, an optimized low-impact development (LID) technology for an urban flood adaptation has been proposed.12 The technical solution foresees the extensive use of green roofs and permeable pavements with vegetated swales in city roads with sufficient widths. Retention basins are man-made ponds with vegetation around their perimeters. They are used to support stormwater drainage systems during extreme flood events and improve urban landscape and micro-climate conditions. Example application:13 The stormwater and flooding alleviation plan of Beira City in Mozambique features a system of deep drainage channels that flow into a new 150-hectare retention basin connected to outlying wetlands and the ocean. TOOL 2.9 A PARTICIPATORY DECISION-SUPPORT TOOL FOR APPRAISING CLIMATE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TOOL 2.9 A participatory decision-support tool for appraising climate adaptation strategies This tool is designed to help PPP planners to develop adaptation strategies that increase the climate resilience of the road network itself and that of the broader community, while minimizing negative impacts and risks to the population, and reinforcing the project’s overall positive social-environment impact. INPUT 1 Organize assessment team (AT) 12 Kim, Jaekyoung, Jihoon Lee, Soonho Hwang, and Junsuk Kang. 2022. “Urban flood adaptation and optimization for net-zero: Case study of Dongjak-gu, Seoul. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 41. 13 Beira Master Plan 2035 – SDUBeira. Module 2 - Step 2 54 It is advised that the assessment team include a variety of stakeholders, e.g., government/municipal authorities’ representatives, members of environmental agencies, gender and social inclusion experts, and public representatives. 2 Brief local authorities on the results of the climate risk assessment, and present the selected adaptation strategies. 3 Agree on the assessment criteria and identify pertinent indicators to measure performance. 4 Evaluate the performance of each strategy based on the list of criteria considered. For now, performance may be measured using qualitative scoring (e.g., high, Medium, low). OUTPUT Summarize evaluation results and rank the preferred adaptation strategies using Reporting Template A.2.8 in Appendix A. Module 2 - Step 3 55 Step 3 Estimate the GHG footprint of the project This step will assist users in qualitatively estimating the GHG emissions of the project (or the project alternatives). The scope of this analysis is SCOPE twofold: (i) to compare alternative project options as per their GHG footprint during the construction phase (e.g., a shorter road alignment implemented via a tunnel might be more GHG intensive than a longer rural road for which typical road sections are implemented); (ii) to compare emissions due to different usage of the road network (e.g., an intercity road may reduce congestion problems but may encourage the passage of trucks, resulting in a heavier GHG footprint). The process follows the outline for GHG emissions accounting described in the Umbrella Toolkit (Module 2.1), starting with the estimation of the PROCESS GHG footprint of the “do nothing option”—the theoretical upper-bound emissions of a road project assuming zero mitigation measures. Intermediate steps include the estimation of construction emissions and operational emissions (primarily generated by the traffic of vehicles and projected over the investment timeframe). TOOLS TOOL 2.10 A high-level procedure for the preliminary life cycle assessment (LCA) of GHG emissions A pre-assessment of the project’s GHG emissions for different alternatives and time horizons. OUTPUT Module 2 - Step 3 56 TOOL 2.10 A HIGH-LEVEL PROCEDURE FOR THE PRELIMINARY LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT (LCA) OF GHG EMISSIONS TOOL 2.10 A high-level procedure for the preliminary life cycle assessment (LCA) of GHG emissions The tool may be used to assess the GHG emissions of the baseline project (i.e., assuming complete absence of mitigation measures). The tool will be used in combination with Tool 2.11 to estimate the GHG reduction that can be achieved using different mitigation solutions. It is important that emissions are calculated over the life cycle of the project. It is possible that more economical solutions that have a low GHG construction footprint today may produce increased GHG emissions over a longer timeframe, owing to highly emissive operating conditions (e.g., an unpaved road is producing lower GHG emissions during construction, but may be responsible for increased GHG production during its operation, attributed to lower travel speeds, higher congestion potential, and increased operations and maintenance (O&M) costs). INPUT 1 Review GHG emissions targets for new transportation projects in the country of origin. Users may glean relevant information from taxonomy frameworks, national climate targets (see Module 1), and/or minimum requirements imposed by international organizations (if a specific funding/ financing pathway will be pursued). 2 Set a GHG reduction goal in alignment with the above frameworks. 3 Review available tools/methodologies for the estimation of GHG emissions in road projects. Recommended tools and guidelines may include: ▪ World Bank, 2011: Transport Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in Road Construction and Rehabilitation: A Toolkit for Developing Countries ▪ World Bank, 2011: ROADEO: A Toolkit for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in Road Construction and Rehabilitation ▪ Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), 2012: Methodology to calculate embodied carbon of materials ▪ Institution of Structural Engineers (IStructE), 2020: A brief guide to calculating embodied carbon ▪ International Financial Institutes (IFI) joint approach to GHG assessment in the transport sector, (2015) Module 2 - Step 3 57 ▪ Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2016: Guidelines for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Asian Development Bank Projects: Additional Guidance For Transport Projects ▪ European Investment Bank (EIB), 2020: Methodologies for the Assessment of Project GHG Emissions and Emission Variations 4 Calculate construction emissions. For each project option (if more than one is considered), perform a preliminary estimate of the construction GHG emissions, calculating the contribution of key emitting sources (Figure 2.3). For preliminary rough estimates, users may refer to the emission values provided in Table 2.2. 5 Calculate operational emissions. For each project alternative (if more than one) perform a life cycle assessment of the operational emissions, using simple calculations that correlate type of vehicle, type of engine, speed and traffic flow with fuel usage and equivalent GHG emissions. Relevant tools and guidelines include: ▪ World Bank Guidance Manual on GHG Accounting and SPC for Transport Investment Operations ▪ World Bank’s newly developed Urban Transport GHG Estimation Tool Depending on the required level of detail (and the availability of resources), fuel- based or distance-based methods may be utilized. For very preliminary rough estimates, users may also refer to Table 2.3.14 TABLE 2.2 Indicative GHG emissions per road asset (t CO2e/km 15) for various road categories Rural Road Rural Road Emissions Provincial Expressway National Road (gravel) (DBST16) (t CO2e/km) Road Earthworks 161 16 12 3 3 Pavements17 1,334 425 157 72 86 Culverts 238 51 17 12 12 Structures 1,068 119 21 3 3 (e.g., bridges) Road furniture 18 432 182 0 0 0 Total 3,234 794 207 90 103 Source: World Bank. 2011. Transport Greenhouse Gas Emissions Mitigation in Road Construction and Rehabilitation: A Toolkit for Developing Countries. 14 Distance-based emissions are recommended only for high-level assessments because they ignore the effects of road surface roughness, fuel type, and engine technology. 15 t CO2e/km: tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilometer 16 Double bituminous surface treatment. 17 Pavements include the construction of the surface, the base, and the sub-base. 18 Road furniture refers to all road fixtures, such as steel covers, traffic domes (silent cops), lane markers, and lights. Module 2 - Step 3 58 TABLE 2.3 Indicative emissions per vehicle type Carbon Dioxide: Methane: Nitrous Oxide: Vehicle Type CO2 Factor CH4 Factor N2O Factor Unit (kg/unit) (g/unit) (g/unit) Medium- or 1.407 0.013 0.033 Vehicle-mile heavy-duty truck Passenger car 0.341 0.009 0.008 Vehicle-mile Light-duty car 0.464 0.012 0.010 Vehicle-mile Source: US Environmental Protection Agency FIGURE 2.3 Main sources of GHG emissions during road construction OUTPUT The total emissions of the “do nothing” case may be summarized using Reporting Template A.2.9 (Appendix A). This will serve as the basis for the evaluation of GHG reduction targets to be performed in Step 4. Module 2 - Step 4 59 Step44Select Mitigation Measures Step Select Mitigation Measures To identify entry points for mitigation measures, and highlight their corresponding benefits and trade-offs. The cost effectiveness of SCOPE alternative mitigation strategies (including carbon emissions / shadow pricing calculations19) will be assessed in Module 3, considering the overall project economics and financial plan. The output of Tool 2.10 can be used to identify entry points for possible GHG emissions reductions in road projects. Reduction of emissions can PROCESS be achieved in several ways, including a modal shift towards greener forms of transportation (e.g., replacing car lanes with bicycle lanes), integration of small-scale mitigation solutions in the design/operation of the road (see examples in Figure 2.4), incentivizing lower carbon footprint transportation, provisioning of dedicated high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lanes, etc. Users are advised to explore alternatives and qualitatively appraise their socioeconomic impacts and other potential benefits (using the supporting material of Library B.2.4 in Appendix B). Then using Tool 2.9 (described previously), climate mitigation strategies may be prioritized based on their cost/benefit potential and their implementation timeframes. TOOLS TOOL 2.11 High-level screening of GHG reduction strategies applicable to roads • Alternative climate mitigation strategies for each project and their OUTPUT associated costs and benefits. • (Optional) A ranking/prioritization of the different climate mitigation strategies. 19These reflect current and future changes in market conditions, which will increase the cost of carbon emissions and fossil fuels, thereby changing the use and need for current products and services. Module 2 - Step 4 60 TOOL 2.11 HIGH-LEVEL SCREENING OF GHG REDUCTION STRATEGIES APPLICABLE TO ROADS TOOL 2.11 High-level screening of GHG reduction strategies applicable to roads This tool describes measures/procedures that may be implemented during the construction and O&M phase of road projects to increase energy efficiency, reduce GHG emissions, and promote sustainability and the green economy. INPUT 1 Retrieve the GHG emissions reduction goal (if there is one) from Tool 2.10. 2 Consult the checklist on Figure 2.4 to identify entry points for small-scale mitigation. A more detailed list of mitigation options is provided in Library B.2.4, although users are encouraged to further expand such lists on the basis of new/updated data and practices. 3 Consider the possibility of a modal shift to greener forms of transportation (e.g., dedicated lanes for electric buses and bicycles on urban roads) and estimate GHG net emission benefits. Intermediate steps include: (i) assumption of a percentage diversion from other transport modes (e.g., from private cars to buses); (ii) estimation of average annual mileage for transport mode categories; (iii) combination of (i) and (ii) to estimate project GHG emissions per transport mode category, with and without the project; and (iv) estimation of GHG net emission reduction (i.e., GHG emissions with the project minus GHG emissions without the project). 4 Select a climate mitigation strategy by combining (2) and (3) measures that are consistent with the specifics of the project under consideration (i.e., they are feasible from a technical perspective, and there is some experience with their implementation). 5 Provide a rough estimate for the cost of climate mitigation. If necessary, consult local construction contractors and/or engineers with experience in sustainable construction. Include land acquisition and resettlement costs if the envisaged mitigation strategies have additional space requirements (e.g., segregated lanes for e-traffic may require widening the road sections). 6 Pre-assess the GHG emissions of the project after the implementation of the climate mitigation strategy. Module 2 - Step 4 61 7 Check goal. By comparing the achieved reduction with the GHG goal, the effectiveness of the mitigation strategy is assessed. If the reduction is lower than desirable, the mitigation strategy is revised until a minimum acceptable performance is achieved. OUTPUT The proposed climate mitigation actions that are contributing to the GHG emissions reduction target in the optimal way should be reported and properly justified based on the analysis above. Reporting Template A.2.10 in Appendix A may be used for this purpose. Climate Mitigation Checklist ✓ Implementation of NbS20 (e.g., natural flood management [NFM] approaches, green retaining solutions). ✓ Entry points for blue-green infrastructure, sustainable alternatives, and good practices. ✓ Entry points for engaging with circular economy approaches (e.g., recycled concrete aggregate or reclaimed asphalt pavement). ✓ Road infrastructure to support and promote the usage of electric vehicles (charging stations, toll discounts for electric vehicles, availing dedicated lanes, etc.). ✓ Installation of street-lighting systems powered by renewable energy (e.g., self- solar-powered lights). ✓ Energy-efficient lighting systems (e.g., LED lighting). ✓ Green plantation.?? NBS or?? ✓ Usage of low-carbon construction materials (e.g., gabions versus concrete walls). ✓ Usage of high-efficiency asphalt (e.g., low rolling resistance material for the asphalt). FIGURE 2.4 Checklist of climate mitigation strategies to eliminate, sequester, or reduce GHG emissions in road projects 20A thorough introduction to NbS is provided in Nature-based Solutions: a Cost-effective Approach for Disaster Risk and Water Resource Management, published in 2019 by the World Bank. Module 2 - Step 4 62 BOX 2.2 INNOVATIVE SUSTAINABLE PRACTICES USED FOR UK HIGHWAYS ▪ The upgrade of the A14 highway between Cambridge and Huntingdon trialed the low carbon cement Cemfree for curbs, drainages, and fills. Cemfree is a cement produced by the Cambridgeshire-based DB Group (Holdings) Ltd. DB Group claims Cemfree can achieve embodied carbon savings of up to 80 percent when used to replace ordinary Portland cement (OPC) in concrete production. ▪ The recently completed A590 road resurfacing project in Cumbria was the United Kingdom’s first carbon neutral minor works scheme. A key initiative was the use of ex-situ foam-mix recycling of existing road surface plannings that reduced the need to import and export materials to and from the site, and erased approximately 6,000 heavy goods vehicle (HGV) movements from the operation, saving 230 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Furthermore, the recycled road surface has greater porosity than hot-rolled asphalt or concrete, helping to reduce rolling noise from vehicles. In addition to the associated carbon benefits, significant carbon reductions were also realized as a result of energy efficiency measures. The use of solar-powered generators, lighting, signage, closed-circuit television (CCTV), and catering facilities, along with the use of electric vehicles, saved approximately 70 tonnes of CO2e. ▪ The National Highways of England and the Department for Transport have invested £8.1 million to lead the first real-world operational trial of platooning vehicles/trucks on UK roads. Platooning vehicles may travel at closer distances, increasing the fuel economy gains through increased aerodynamic efficiency. Source: Highways England. “Net Zero Highways: Our 2030/2040/2050 Plan”; Amey PLC. https://www.amey.co.uk/. Module 3 63 MODULE 3 Module 3 64 Module 3 CLIMATE CONSIDERATIONS IN ASSESSING PROJECTS’ ECONOMICS AND FINANCES This module is meant to support agencies (i.e., the line ministry) in conducting their traditional Phase 1 economic assessments, in view of the above climate considerations. In particular, the module provides tools and examples for: ▪ Prioritizing different climate adaptation/mitigation options using a stakeholder approach (Step 1) ▪ Estimating the maximum additional cost at which the project is deemed unaffordable (Step 2) ▪ Identifying all climate-related costs/benefits that should be integrated with an enhanced cost- benefit analysis (CBA) (Step 2). Module 3 - Step 1 65 Step 1 Prioritize climate adaptation and mitigation strategies using multi-criteria analysis (mca) Step 1 Prioritize climate adaptation and mitigation strategies using multi-criteria analysis (mca)21 This step compares different climate adaptation/mitigation strategies (including a “do nothing” option), using a range of qualitative criteria. SCOPE Shortlisted alternatives will move forward for a preliminary economic analysis (conducted in Step 2). The process begins after the completion of Tools 2.9 and 2.11, which should have indicated a set of measures that may be added to the “do PROCESS nothing” alternative to reduce climate risks and increase the overall environmental benefit of the project. The measures examined at this stage may substantially differ from a technical, economic, social, and strategic standpoint. In order to identify the preferred solution (or set of preferred solutions), the different climate strategies are analyzed using an MCA (Tool 3.1), within a participatory decision-making framework. By performing this type of qualitative analysis, aspects that cannot easily be quantified or put into monetary terms (e.g., impacts to the environment or communities) will be included in the decision-making process. TOOLS TOOL 3.1 MCA assessment of climate strategies Preferred project alternative(s) (including climate measures) and a “do OUTPUT nothing” solution (where no climate measures are included). 21 MCA: multi-criteria analysis. Module 3 - Step 1 66 TOOL 3.1 MCA ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE STRATEGIES TOOL 3.1 MCA assessment of climate strategies This tool describes the process of conducting an MCA for the appraisal of the costs and benefits of alternative climate strategies (i.e., combinations of climate measures22). To see how climate decisions may benefit from an MCA (or equivalent approaches), users are referred to the Umbrella Toolkit (Module 2.1). INPUT 1 Define/refine the criteria of the assessment that best reflect national priorities Potential criteria to consider in the analysis include: • Capital and life-cycle costs • Estimated GHG emissions reductions over the project life cycle • The risk-reduction potential of the strategy or its contribution to the resilience of the project (users may refer to the Umbrella Toolkit for a definition of the “resilience of” notion) • Effectiveness in responding to the uncertainty of a changing climate (i.e., the adaptiveness of the strategy) • The potential of a strategy to enhance the overall resilience of the impacted community (or certain disadvantaged groups within the community) • Other factors (e.g., technical feasibility, protection of biodiversity, social acceptance, the optionality of green financing/funding). Users may update/modify the above list of criteria to best reflect the priorities of the ministry in charge. Good practice favors a limited list of criteria to make the assessment effort realistic and to keep the selection process as simple as possible. 2 Rank criteria based on their importance or criticality Apply a general "rule of thumb”; ranking of criteria should be compatible with national priorities. 22 By climate measures, we refer to both adaptation and mitigation measures. Module 3 - Step 1 67 3 Measure the impact of each climate strategy against the criteria considered By this point, a preliminary assessment has been conducted as part of Tools 2.9 and 2.11. Here the assessment may be revised and complemented by the input provided by the MCA team. The scoring system may be qualitative (e.g., high, medium, or low) or arithmetic (1 to 5). Users are prompted to use Reporting Template A.3.1 to compare the overall benefits of the envisioned strategies. 4 Start the analysis by abandoning strategies that do not contribute to high-ranked criteria, and continue the process in an iterative manner until a manageable list of alternative climate strategies is obtained. Guidance on evaluation methods that are compatible with the MCA framework is provided in the Umbrella Toolkit (Module 2.1). 5 Aggregate the results Rank finalists based on their overall acceptance by the MCA team. Users should make sure that the “do nothing” option is also included in the list of alternatives. OUTPUT A ranked list of climate strategies to be forwarded to Step 2. Module 3 - Step 2 68 Step 2 Check economic soundness of alternative climate strategies Step 2 Check economic soundness of alternative climate strategies This step compares the highly ranked climate strategies of the previous step (output of Tool 3.1) in terms of cost effectiveness, affordability, and SCOPE suitability for a PPP. The output will be a project that has been successfully screened from an economic perspective and can therefore be considered suitable for proceeding to a full technical and economic appraisal. Following the screening process presented in the Umbrella Toolkit, the economic analysis is performed in stages, starting with a preliminary CBA PROCESS (Tool 3.2) to identify the project that maximizes the benefit-cost ratio. For best results, all important climate-related costs (e.g., additional climate capital expenditures (CAPEX), and costs of disruptions caused by extreme weather events) and benefits (e.g., risk reduction benefits, and protection of human settlements and biodiversity) should be synthesized and compared after monetary evaluation. Alternatively, a standard CBA with respective parameters should be performed to identify the solution with the maximum benefit/cost ratio. Once the project has been identified, the affordability of the project is tested in view of the budgetary limits, constraints, and other concurrent investment plans of the public authority, following the general considerations described in the Umbrella Toolkit. The final check is to assess how climate-induced risks, costs, and opportunities may affect the suitability of a project as a PPP (Tool 3.3). The project that successfully passes all tests receives the green light to proceed to the appraisal phase. TOOLS TOOL 3.2 Climate entry points for CBA for road networks TOOL 3.3 Climate value-drivers for VfM analysis OUTPUT A road project with climate adaptation and mitigation measures that can be moved forward for appraisal Module 3 - Step 2 69 TOOL 3.2 CLIMATE ENTRY POINTS FOR CBA FOR ROAD NETWORKS TOOL 3.2 Climate entry points for CBA for road networks This tool describes entry points for climate-related CBA considerations that are relevant to road projects. Prior to applying the tool, users are advised to review methodologies for estimating the monetary value of social-environmental benefits and the CBA Primer (2017)23 and consult the Umbrella Toolkit (Modules 1.3 and 2.3), where climate-related considerations for CBA (applicable to all sectors) are described in greater detail. INPUT TABLE 3.1 Road-specific climate entry points for CBA CBA Process Outline CBA Sub-steps Climate Entry Point (per APMG PPP (per APMG PPP Certification Guide) Certification Guide) Projecting financial Tax adjustment • If applicable in the country, include tax incentives that data with conversion/ promote “green” behavior (e.g., use of adjustment environmentally friendly vehicles, tax-credits24) • If applicable, include levies and environmental taxes for the “do nothing” option Shadow prices and • Adjust costs and benefits as would otherwise be done opportunity cost following the 2017 World Bank Guidance Note on the adjustment shadow price of carbon25 Construction of the model • Include the cost of constructing/implementing adaptation measures (e.g., cost of larger pipes and trenches, cost of constructing flood protection measures for the road, and cost of higher quality pavement material) • For nature-based solutions, the total cost should also include the cost of maintenance (which may be a significant portion of the initial investment) • Consider the cost of sustainable construction (e.g., cost of recycling demolition materials, investment in electrical construction machinery) • Include the cost of investments in small-scale mitigation (e.g., CAPEX of LED lights or photovoltaic cells) • Include auxiliary cost introduced by green requirements (e.g., cost of charging stations for electric vehicles) Operational and • Consider the increase in the cost of repairs due to maintenance costs increased incidence of storms, flood events, and higher temperatures (e.g., cost of repairing potholes, maintenance of gullies) • Consider the effect of reduced electricity cost (e.g., road signage, lights using electricity from photovoltaics) 23 Guzman, A., and F. Estrázulas. 2012. “Full Speed Ahead: Economic Cost-Benefit Analyses Pave the Way for Decision- Making.” Handshake 7, October 2012. 24 An example is the Road Infrastructure Development and Refurbishment Investment Tax Credit Scheme in Nigeria. 25 World Bank. 2017. “Shadow Price of Carbon in Economic Analysis.” World Bank Guidance Note, November 12, 2017. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/911381516303509498- 0020022018/original/2017ShadowPriceofCarbonGuidanceNoteFINALCLEARED.pdf. Module 3 - Step 2 70 CBA Process Outline CBA Sub-steps Climate Entry Point (per APMG PPP (per APMG PPP Certification Guide) Certification Guide) Defining term and Residual value estimates should be adjusted to include residual value climate change impacts, for example: • Reductions26 related to unrepaired damages (e.g., collapsed road sections) • Reductions caused by the increasing rate of material deterioration due to climate change (e.g., corroded metal bridges, road surface damage due to water salination) Adding externalities Defining list of The cost of externalities may include: externalities • Cost of indirect damage caused by broken supply chains, increased travel times, increased road accidents (due to absence of early warning systems for extreme weather conditions) • Cost of emergency services (e.g., destruction of a bridge may require the use of helicopters to provide supplies to households). Emergency response costs can be estimated using data from past events. • Permanent or temporary changes in traffic patterns caused by: - Changes in the population or economic activity of the coverage area of the road network (e.g., increased risk of desertification) - Loss of connectivity with the regional network (in the aftermath of extreme weather events) • Disruption during construction (caused by unfavorable weather conditions, e.g., extreme heat, frequent and intense rainfalls, cyclones) • Long-term effects on air, water quality, and noise • External benefits comprise increased user safety, the certainty of traffic and associated revenues, etc. Adding (other) Monetizing/inferring • Include an increase in private investment confidence socioeconomic value for relevant (business, entrepreneurship, property) benefits benefits Considering/qualifying • Include resilience benefits such as: other unvalued benefits - Avoided loss to the network adjusted over the probability of the event - Avoided disaster to the broader ecosystem (e.g., if the road can be used as an evacuation route for nearby settlements) • Environmental benefits of nature-based solutions (e.g., quality of air, better aesthetics) • Alignment with strategic climate objectives Relative price Market imperfection • Apply as would otherwise have been done adjustments and bias/ risk adjustments Other opportunity cost • Consider alternative uses of the land and space that adjustments climate measures cover, if any, and apply such costs Taxes • Same as above, apply only to the extent that tax advantages are applicable when a project exceeds its purpose in social benefits, and/or • Consider the tax income gained from steady, uninterrupted operations. 26 The calculated reduction should be adjusted to account for the probability of failure. Module 3 - Step 2 71 CBA Process Outline CBA Sub-steps Climate Entry Point (per APMG PPP (per APMG PPP Certification Guide) Certification Guide) Defining base case, and Discount rate definition • Consider adjusting discount rate for valuation defining and and calculation of net depending on levels of certainty of cash flows (applies calculating economic present value (NPV) and to projects that include climate measures) and internal rate of return EIRR uncertainty of cash flows (applies to “do nothing” (EIRR) alternatives). This needs to be aligned with the probabilistic analysis of events occurring to avoid “hurting” a project with uncertainty twice (once with high probability of costs occurring and once with high discount rate because of uncertainty of cash flows). Incorporating Test the strength of the • As would otherwise be conducted uncertainty: proposed business plan sensitivities and present the effect of variations OUTPUT The results of the analysis of climate entry points in the project’s CBA may be summarized in a screening report highlighting which climate mitigation and adaptation aspects have been considered, and ensuring these have been adequately evaluated. IMPORTANT NOTE CHOOSING DISCOUNT RATE The discount rate used in the economic analysis is particularly important when evaluating and comparing adaptation options, because the associated benefits (or avoided costs) are unlikely to be realized for many decades. There is no consensus on the appropriate discount rate to use for resilience strategies. As a good practice, study teams may choose to explore the sensitivity of economic analysis findings to different discount rates, or the possibility of applying a non-constant discount rate over the horizon of the assessment. TOOL 3.3 CLIMATE VALUE DRIVERS FOR VFM ANALYSIS TOOL 3.3 Climate value drivers for VfM analysis A VfM analysis is performed to identify whether (and to what extent) climate-related risks, opportunities, and uncertainties may affect the suitability of a project for PPP and non-PPP delivery. This tool describes entry points for climate-related considerations for VfM analysis that are relevant to road projects. It explains the rationale of these considerations, identifies conditions of positive, negative or (conditional) performance, and, where applicable, provides specific references and examples from road projects. Module 3 - Step 2 72 INPUT TABLE 3.2 Impacts of climate change on PPP suitability for road projects PPP Suitability: Impact on VfM Driver Climate Conditions PPP Considerations Suitability Project size Is the project too Introduction of climate considerations in a Negative big for the market? road project may—in certain Or is the project circumstances—result in increasing its size too complex to be due to the required adaptation works. Such a delivered as a PPP? condition may be particularly problematic when the construction of the adaptation measures requires the cooperation of different PPP units or other government units outside the PPP unit. E.g., a road with flood protection measures will require the co- operation of the transportation and water management units, which may be practically unfeasible. Such conditions could impact the appetite of potential bidders or hinder the project’s financing. The transportation sector is generally missing Negative standardization on how to design adaptation measures while considering changing climate conditions. Hence, the potential requirement to account for climate change would demand significant expertise and could result in increased preparation time (and perhaps budget). Market Would there be The identification of previously unknown Negative appetite private investor climate risks (e.g., the locations of a road appetite? section on a projected flood plain) could hamper an investor's appetite to invest. Proper design and cost estimates of climate Positive adaptation/mitigation works would provide visibility and hence increase private sector appetite. Precedent Are precedent If the road project is part of a greater urban Positive projects transactions mobility project, or project pipeline for already developed which detailed risk assessment studies have as PPPs for this already been performed, it will be easier to type of project in incorporate climate risks in the transaction. the country/region or in similar countries? Module 3 - Step 2 73 PPP Suitability: Impact on VfM Driver Climate Conditions PPP Considerations Suitability Risk Are there any In some circumstances, climate related Negative allocation significant climate events may cause extended losses to road risks within the networks. The risk of sustaining such losses project that are not may be reduced by proper design of climate manageable by a adaptation works and insurance against any private partner? excess risks. In case costs for climate adaptation works are high or insurance is unavailable, the risk may not be manageable by the private partner (e.g., risk of inundation of road sections due to unprecedented sea-level rise, or frequent flooding of rivers that will require extensive replacement/rehabilitation cost during the project timeframe). Uncertainty in estimating risks (i.e., CAPEX Mostly and/or O&M costs) will also impact PPP negative suitability of roads. Plausible climate risk (unless reduction measures: incorporate uncertainty specific in the financial assessments, or use more measures flexible contract structures, to allow for to increase adjustment in tariff level that can partially certainty compensate for the climate-induced loss. are taken) Are there The private sector's capital and innovation Positive circumstances brings higher efficiency in disaster where climate risks preparedness, response, and recovery. Also, can be better insurance coverage increases the capability assumed by the of the private party to assume a certain level private party? of climate risk. Road concessions have a better track record than roads operated by public entities (e.g., municipalities) in combating extreme weather events, due to better O&M practices (e.g., lower possibilities of disruption, and implementation of operational innovations such as early warning systems). Is there a risk of Geophysical hazards (e.g., landslide, Mostly non-availability of subsidence) may be intensified by climate negative the land or right of change; hence roads passing through (unless way, and land landslide-prone areas, thawing permafrost recognized acquisition cost zones, areas impacted by coastal erosion, and proper overrun? etc., could experience higher risks. measures are taken) Module 3 - Step 2 74 PPP Suitability: Impact on VfM Driver Climate Conditions PPP Considerations Suitability Certainty of Is it possible that Interdependencies of the road network with Mostly offtake/ the project will vulnerable external infrastructure that is not negative supply experience a under the control of the PPP may have a change in demand negative impact on the demand (e.g., non- due to climate accessibility of the road network from flood- change? prone locations), thus compromising investment certainty. Increased growth of a region (partially Mostly affected by milder climate conditions) may positive positively impact the road demand. Project Will the project In some cases, the private party may bring Mostly quality quality increase if innovation and high standards. Examples of positive the project is such innovation applicable to roads could (provided developed through indicatively include contractors with that the a PPP scheme? experience in NbS; expertise in automated methods construction using pre-fabricated sections to used are reduce construction time and increase tested) project quality, thus positively impacting the climate resilience of the project; recycling construction materials; low-emissions equipment; new materials; etc. As commercial lenders become more Positive informed about climate change risk, they will demand higher climate resilience standards to stimulate high performance in order to ensure repayment/returns. Output- Is it possible to There are examples of road PPPs that have based define clear output incorporated climate and sustainability contracting requirements for clauses in output-based contracting (e.g., road performance relating the intensity of rainfall with the in climate events? duration of road closure for repairs). Mostly Output-based contracting in roads could positive easily be linked to financial incentives or penalties, thereby enhancing climate risk mitigation and resulting in faster as well as better responses to climate-related disruptions. Finance Are there any In general, technologies for reduction of Negative availability significant climate climate risks in road projects are mature and (unless risks that may have been tested both technically and recognized harm the commercially. However, climate-related and proper availability of events may be responsible for external risks measures financing? (e.g., loss of accessibility of feeder roads are networks, reduced traffic), which could be structured) non-mitigable. Such risks may test the Module 3 - Step 2 75 PPP Suitability: Impact on VfM Driver Climate Conditions PPP Considerations Suitability willingness of financiers to participate or could result in requests for higher guarantees. Legal or Has the country Prior existence of a national framework Mostly regulatory adopted national promoting green investments, defining positive framework legislation on other subsidies and incentives for private climate change? sector participation, would definitely boost the project. For example, existing legislation describing beneficial provisions for electric vehicles and eco-mobility would positively impact the implementation of low-carbon public transport plans. OUTPUT The results of the VfM may be summarized in a screening report highlighting which climate mitigation and resilience aspects have been considered, and how they are impacting the suitability of the project as a PPP. Module 4 - Step 2 76 MODULE 4 Module 4 - Step 2 77 Module 4 KPIs FOR CLIMATE-RESILIENT AND SUSTAINABLE ROADS KPIs are customarily used in PPP road projects to assess and evaluate the project’s performance during design, construction, and operation. KPIs are developed around specific government objectives, and the private partner will either be entitled to additional payments for good performance or reduced payments for poor performance. Expanding this general notion to road PPPs containing climate actions, the relevant KPIs can be used to measure: (i) the road project’s alignment to specific climate mitigation objectives, and (ii) the ability of the road project to prepare, respond to, and quickly recover from climatic hazards. The tools described in the ensuing section provide indicative high-level examples of climate KPIs soliciting forward-looking information to be included in performance-based contracts. Based on the understanding that there is no one-size-fits-all for KPIs, the tools describe climate indicators that may be applicable to a broad range of road projects. It is then the obligation of the entity in charge, with the assistance of experienced consultants, to formulate project-specific KPIs that best describe the technical/operational challenges of the project, and to take advantage of the expertise and innovation skills of the private sector. Module 4 - Step 2 78 TOOL 4.1 KPIs MEASURING CLIMATE MITIGATION OBJECTIVES TOOL 4.1 KPIs measuring climate mitigation objectives This tool is designed to help public authorities and their advisors when structuring and preparing performance-based contracts for roads. Table 4.1 provides a non-exhaustive list of climate mitigation KPIs that can be widely adaptable to road projects and have been recommended by internationally recognized frameworks. The KPIs are structured around four thematic areas representing core elements of a PPP contract: design, construction, O&M, and investments. KPIs are described by a performance objective and an example measurement (i.e., how to measure compliance with the objective). Where applicable, the (recommending) organization is also stated. Depending on the performance objective, one or more example measurements may apply (that can be used complementarily or interchangeably with each other). It should be noted that the tool does not provide threshold values for the suggested KPIs. This is country- and project-specific information that the public authority should provide based on good- practice examples and applicable norms/rules. Overall, it is considered good practice to define two levels of achievement: a conserving level having no negative impacts and an improved level that will overall benefit the project performance. Performance below the conserving level signifies the application of penalties, whereas performance above the improved level may be tied to specific rewards/incentives for the private sector. TABLE 4.1 Indicative climate mitigation KPIs DESIGN-RELATED KPIs Performance Framework/ Example Indicators Objective Organization • ICMA27 Support of Electric vehicle charging stations and infrastructure: sustainable modes number (charging capacity) per kilometer (km) of transportation • ICMA Bicycle lanes and bicycle parking stations: km • ICMA New or improved train lines, and dedicated bus, BRT, LRT28 corridors, bicycle lanes: kms or percentage of the road network coverage • ICMA Improvement of Efficiency of road lighting equipment for traffic areas: • EN 13201 [1–5] energy efficiency e.g., power density (watt/area unit); annual energy standards29 consumption (kWh); number of LED or solid-state lighting (SSL) fixtures with lumen/watt (Lm/W); active power/energy losses in lighting installations 27 International Capital Market Association 28 BRT: bus rapid transit; LRT: light rail transit 29 BS EN 13201 Parts 1-5 Road Lighting Standards Module 4 - Step 2 79 Performance Framework/ Example Indicators Objective Organization • Envision Framework/ Reduction of the Road area that meets solar reflective index (SRI30) Institute for Sustainable heat island effect criteria: percentage of road network Infrastructure31 • ICMA • SuRe by GIB Approximate excess heat produced and not captured by the road: kW CONSTRUCTION-RELATED KPIs Performance Framework/ Example Indicators Organization Objective • TCFD (Task Force on Increase of energy Consumption of electricity, gas and water for Climate-Related Financial efficiency construction works: e.g., kW/day, gallons/day Disclosures) • GRI:32 103, 302 • SASB33 • EMAS34 by European Commission Total amount of embodied tons of CO2 and other GHG • TCFD Reduction of emissions of the construction materials: CO2e • GRI:35 103, 302 emissions in Net CO2 equivalent emissions of road construction construction equipment per usage: MT (metric tonne) of CO2e per km (or m3). Annual temperature increase/decrease in the • SuRe Standard by (GIB)36 Reduction of the surrounding areas after road construction: degrees heat island effect Celsius or percentage change Promoting Materials used for construction/ maintenance works • SuRe by GIB sustainable that come from local and/or recycled or reclaimed resource sources (e.g., earthworks using local soil, embankment management and material from demolition waste, gabions instead of circular economy concrete retaining walls, pavement rehabilitation using recycled materials): percentage of total materials used 30 SRI is an index used to measure the part of solar radiation that is reflected back by a surface 31 Use Envision/Institute For Sustainable Infrastructure 32 Global Reporting Initiative 33 Sustainability Accounting Standards Board 34 Eco-Management and Audit Scheme 35 Global Reporting Initiative 36 SuRe Standard: Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure - Infrastructure Tool Navigator (sustainable-infrastructure- tools.org) Module 4 - Step 2 80 Performance Framework/ Example Indicators Organization Objective • SuRe by GIB Primary and secondary suppliers of road machinery/equipment that have sustainability sourcing/procurement/management certification: percentage or number • TCFD Promoting the use CNG37 and/or renewable fuel consumption for • SASB of renewables construction works over total fuel consumption: percentage share of renewable fuel consumption Leverage Native, non-invasive species before and after the road biodiversity construction and the associated infrastructure: number of such species as percentage of all species OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE-RELATED KPIs Performance Framework/ Example Indicators Organization Objective • ICMA Modal shifts Ridership of alternative means of transportation: e.g., increase to more number of passengers per vehicle-trip kilometer (PVK); sustainable and passengers per route kilometer (PRK); passengers per less polluting hour per direction (PPHPD) means of • ICMA Estimated reduction in car/truck use: number of transportation kilometers driven, share of total transport ridership • TCFD Metrics Increase of energy Consumption of electricity, gas and water for • SASB efficiency operations: e.g., kW/day, gallons/day • Envision Framework • TCFD Energy input per desired output of operation • GRI: 103, 302 equipment (e.g., traffic patrol vehicles): e.g., fuel • SASB consumption in litters/km • EMAS by European Commission ▪ TCFD Reduction of GHG Life-cycle net CO2 equivalent emissions of the road ▪ SASB emissions network: MT (metric tonne) of CO2e, percent reduction ▪ Envision Framework (over a baseline) ▪ TCFD Net CO2 equivalent emissions of operation equipment ▪ SASB (e.g., patrol cars) per usage: tn of CO2e per km ▪ Envision Framework ▪ TCFD Promoting the use Renewable energy produced within the road project • GRI: 103, 302 of renewables (e.g., solar panels on stations, canopies, and • SASB 37 CNG: compressed natural gas. Module 4 - Step 2 81 Performance Framework/ Example Indicators Organization Objective administrative buildings): percentage increase from • EMAS by European baseline year; percentage of total energy demand Commission • TCFD Renewable fuel consumption (of the rolling stock) over • SASB total fuel consumption: percentage share of renewable fuels • TCFD Clean vehicles (e.g., gas vehicles, battery electric • SASB vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) or alternative- powered vehicles (LPG,38 CNG, fuel cells, compressed air) in the operating fleet: total amount, percentage share of green fleet • Envision Reduction of air Air quality measurements in characteristic locations of pollutant the network (i.e., stations, passengers crossings): emissions mg/m3 of carbon monoxide, ground-level ozone, nitrogen oxides; percentage reduction in measurements performed at specified distance and height from the road edge Reduce human Roadside vegetation (i.e., the vegetative barrier exposure to traffic- between road and adjacent land) in urban related pollution environments: percentage share INVESTMENT-RELATED KPIs Performance Example Indicators Framework/Organization Objective • TCFD Increase of CAPEX Investments (CAPEX) in low-carbon fleet and • SASB (capital equipment: total cost or percentage of total CAPEX expenditures) on climate mitigation • TCFD Reduction of OPEX Energy savings from using low-carbon alternatives (e.g., • CDP39 (operating microgrids) to cover operational energy demands: • SASB expenses) (while percentage increase (over a baseline case) investing in sustainability) Increase of green Green bond ratio: total amount of green bonds European Commission sources of outstanding (at year-end) divided by (a five-year (2019/C 209/01): financing rolling average of) total amount of bonds outstanding ISO/CD 14030-1 Green debt ratio: total amount of all green debt European Commission instruments (including sustainability-linked loans) (2019/C 209/01): outstanding (at year-end) divided by (a five-year ISO/CD 14030-1 38 LPG: liquefied petroleum gas. 39 Climate Disclosure Standards (CDP). Module 4 - Step 2 82 Performance Example Indicators Framework/Organization Objective rolling average of) total amount of all debt outstanding TOOL 4.2 KPIs MEASURING CLIMATE ADAPTATION OBJECTIVES TOOL 4.2 KPIs measuring climate adaptation objectives Climate-adaptation KPIs measure either the physical (e.g., percentage of damaged road sections, information technology failures) and/or operational performance of a road network (e.g., time out of service, time to full functionality) related to specific climate hazards. Contrary to the customary practice, climate-adaptation KPIs: ▪ Correlate the road performance with specific intensity thresholds of the climate event ▪ Have different intensity thresholds for normal and extreme weather conditions ▪ Assess the capacity of the operator to manage a climate event based on functional recovery times (and to a lesser extent on available resources) ▪ Can be updated to absorb any abrupt changes in the climatic patterns of the region due to climate change (provided that there is the necessary justification). Table 4.2 provides a non-exhaustive list of climate-adaptation KPIs that can help the public authorities and their advisors when structuring and preparing performance-based contracts for roads. Two broad classes of KPIs are recognized—physical and operational. Example indicators for measuring the achievement or not of the KPI are also provided. However, the tool does not recommend specific threshold values for either the event intensity or the performance level of the road. These should be derived in consultation with the technical advisor, in due consideration of the project’s risk profile, the frequency of the event, and the importance of the road project. For example, a road that is used as an emergency route, and should therefore remain always operational, will have more stringent thresholds than an ordinary road. IMPORTANT NOTE Climate thresholds and performance levels One KPI may be related to one or more hazards. However, the climate thresholds that apply to different hazards will differ. Moreover, depending on the severity of the event, different performance levels will apply for the same hazard (e.g., longer response times will be tolerated for extreme rather than normal-intensity events) Module 4 - Step 2 83 TABLE 4.2 Indicative climate-adaptation KPIs PHYSICAL KPIs Performance Example Indicators Relevant Hazards40 Objective Roughness of the road ▪ Cracks of specific dimensions: number per unit area of • (Urban, river, coastal) surface road flooding ▪ Potholes: number per unit area • Snowfall/hail • Excessive heat • Ice melt / permafrost thaw • Landslides Percentage of road ▪ Road inundated, covered by snow, or covered by All hazards closed to traffic debris: percentage of roadway that is affected, as a function of the intensity of the climate-related phenomenon and the criticality of affected road sections, out of the full network or the PPP project Maintenance of assets ▪ Periodic condition assessments: number/year All hazards to meet specific ▪ Minimum asset condition score above a minimum performance standards threshold: score depends on asset type e.g., for pavement the International Roughness Index (m/km) may be used for the ride quality ▪ Frequency of preventive maintenance actions: number Visibility/operability ▪ Distance from which signs are clearly visible: meters • Extreme rain/fog of traffic signs ▪ Power/IT failures affecting digital signs: number/event • Dust storms OPERATIONAL KPIs KPI /Target Example Indicators Relevant Hazards41 Functional recovery ▪ Time required to reach a certain percentage of road All acute hazards time with respect to capacity: days the intensity of the ▪ Time required to reach 100 percent capacity: days event and the criticality of the road section Road safety ▪ Accidents due to climate hazards: number All hazards Availability of ▪ Emergency water supply points for firefighting: • Fire emergency resources number per km • (Urban, river, coastal) ▪ Pumping stations: number per km flooding ▪ Fleet and maintenance plan of emergency vehicles: • Snowfall/hail number of emergency vehicles per km, frequency of • Landslides maintenance activities • Tornadoes/twisters/ cyclones Emergency response ▪ Time elapsed between a predicted event and a • Fire time warning announcement to drivers: minutes • (Urban, river, coastal) flooding 40 Table 4.2 maintains the climate hazard description of Module 1 – (Library B.2.1). 41 Table 4.2 maintains the climate hazard description of Module 1 – (Library B.2.1). Module 4 - Step 2 84 KPI /Target Example Indicators Relevant Hazards41 ▪ Time elapsed between a climate-related warning and • Snowfall/hail the completion of all relevant emergency response • Tornadoes/twisters/cycl procedures: minutes ones Response time of ▪ Time to access affected area: minutes • All hazards emergency vehicles ▪ Time required for first aid to arrive: minutes Time to clear road ▪ Time required to de-ice road surface in case of • Snowfall/hail extreme cold: minutes/km • Dust storms ▪ Time required to clean road surface of debris, • Landslides rockfalls, material transported by flood water, etc.: • hours (counting from the moment the road closed to Tornadoes/twisters/cycl traffic) ones Time to resume ▪ Time to resume a certain percentage of operability of • (Urban, river, coastal) construction construction sites following disruptive climate events flooding as a function of their intensity: days • Landslide • Tornadoes/twisters/ cyclones Increased ▪ Frequency of emergency drills: number of • All acute hazards preparedness for evacuation/emergency response exercises per year climate events ▪ Existence of procedures for post-event assessments: yes/no User satisfaction ▪ Complaints received (after climate-related events): • All hazards number/event ▪ Canceled or affected bus services (due to climate events): number Module 4 - Step 2 85 Summary and Conclusions CLIMATE ENTRY POINTS IN THE EARLY STAGES OF ROAD PPP PROJECT PREPARATION After completion of all the steps described in this toolkit, users are expected to have a clear view of how to incorporate climate considerations into the early stages of a road PPP project preparation, using a set of practical tools that allow: Identification and mapping of national and international climate-related frameworks and commitments relevant to the road project under consideration. To this end, the tool navigates users through the main documents defining such policies, while guiding them as to the specific focus areas that are of importance for a road PPP project. Screening of the alignment of the road PPP project with the Paris Agreement and the regulations stemming from it. Screening is performed by means of four sets of questionnaires—each referring to one pillar of the relevant considerations—through which users are able to identify areas where improvements may be necessary, recalling that all World Bank Group-supported projects must be fully aligned with the Paris Agreement by 2025. Appraisal of the climate-related risks that the specific project is exposed to, which are identified as the potential losses that could be either internal to the project (in the form of physical damage and loss of revenues due to a climate event immediately impacting the operability of the infrastructure) or external (in the form of economic losses due to an event impacting access to the road project that may remain physically intact). To this end, a set of readily available online resources are provided that allow users to understand which hazards may affect the project, given its location and geometric data. Based on such data, a set of libraries provides guidance as to the potential effects of each hazard on specific assets of the road network. Hence, users will be able to form a preliminary opinion as to the vulnerability of each asset type, its appropriateness for the project/region, and the associated needs for risk reduction measures. Preliminary exploration of climate adaptation and resilience strategies to reduce the risks identified above and enhance project bankability. The relevant tools help users identify adaptation measures specific to each road asset, while at the same time providing a high-level indication as to the costs and benefits of each alternative option, so that users are able to design different resilience strategies—each with distinct costs and benefits—including the potential for the project to access additional resilience-linked liquidity pools. Estimation of the carbon footprint of the road project by performing a preliminary assessment of the GHG emissions associated with the construction and operation of the road network. The relevant tools provide step-by-step instructions on how to conduct a preliminary life cycle analysis (LCA) of such emissions, supported by libraries providing indicative emissions values associated with each (construction- or operation-related) activity. Selection of appropriate climate mitigation measures aiming to reduce the carbon footprint of the project. Given that the road transportation sector is a driver of economic development on the one hand, but is generally associated with high GHG emissions on the other, it is important to Module 4 - Step 2 86 explore options—applicable to both the construction and operation phases—to mitigate them, because that would be necessary to enhance the project’s alignment with climate-related frameworks and ensure eligibility for funding or for accessing green financing. To support the preliminary selection of mitigation options, the relevant tools provide specific examples applicable to road assets, accompanied by a simplified methodology to assess the effect of such measures in reducing GHG emissions. Preliminary identification of climate entry points in the cost-benefit analysis of the project, using a step-by-step approach that supports users in understanding how climate risks, as well as adaptation and resilience plans, may be reflected in the project economics, by presenting the tradeoffs between climate-related risks and investments. Preliminary appraisal of the project’s VfM and suitability as a PPP using a set of tabulated instructions explaining the effects of the various potential climate actions identified above, on parameters such as project bankability, investor appetite, and project risk profile. It is also shown how failure to act—or invest—may result in a negative impact on the project, if investor risks remain unmitigated, or if insufficient measures hamper the eligibility of the project to receive funding from multiple sources. Preliminary identification of climate (mitigation or adaptation related) KPIs that could be used to trigger climate-related clauses of the payment mechanism in PPP contracts. It is shown that climate considerations are meant to be present in all phases of the PPP project—from project selection, design, and construction, throughout project implementation. To this end, a non- exhaustive set of essential climate-related KPs are presented as part of the relevant tools that describe road-specific actions and quantifiers to allow them to be monitored. The present road-specific toolkit, when used in conjunction with the World Bank Group’s Umbrella Toolkit document, is meant to support PPP agencies operating in EMDE countries to incorporate climate risks and opportunities in road PPP projects, by providing detailed guidance applicable to the early stages of such projects’ preparation. Given the importance and complexity of incorporating climate change considerations into PPP projects, all appraisals performed at the preliminary stages with the help of this toolkit will need to be re-assessed in detail with the help of expert consultants on the basis of project- specific data that will become available in subsequent stages of the project. Appendix 87 Appendix Appendix A 88 Appendix A REPORTING TEMPLATES Reporting Template A.1.1 Climate entry points in transportation policies Policy Document Entity in Climate Coverage Document Type Charge Provisions Strategy, law, policy, National/ Intra-governmental Name (year) action plan, subnational/ entity (ministry, Summarize key points taxonomy, etc. regional municipality, etc.) Complete as appropriate Reporting Template A.2.1 Hazard matrix for road network assets Hazard Type Current Level Future Trend Future Level Increasing/Decreasing/ Low/Medium/High Low/Medium/High Stable Flood Landslides Extreme rainfall Tornadoes Complete as appropriate Appendix A 89 Reporting Template A.2.2a System-level exposure matrix (can be used to compare different project alternatives at a high level) Add Hazard Types Flood Coastal Erosion from Tool 2.3 n.a./ Low /Med iu m/ n.a./ Low /Med iu m/ n.a./ Low /Med iu m/ Hi g h Hi g h Hi g h Road alternative 1 Road alternative 2 Reporting Template A.2.2b Asset-level’ exposure matrix for a project alternative Add Hazard types Asset Categories Flood Coastal Erosion from Tool 2.3 n.a./ Low /Med iu m/ n.a./ Low /Med iu m/ n.a./ Low /Med iu m/ Hi g h Hi g h Hi g h River bridges Coastal bridges Coastal roads (elevation < 1 meter) Roads (elevation > 1 meter) Drainage systems Natural slopes/cuts Add more asset types as appropriate TOTAL exposure Appendix A 90 Reporting Template A.2.3 Asset-level’ vulnerability matrix of a project alternative Add Hazard Types Asset Categories Flood Coastal Erosion from Tool 2.3 n.a./ Low /Med iu m/ n.a./ Low /Med iu m/ n.a./ Low /Med iu m/ River bridges Hi g h Hi g h Hi g h Coastal bridges Coastal roads (elevation < 1 meter) Roads (elevation > 1 meter) Drainage systems Natural slopes/cuts Add more asset types as appropriate Reporting Template A.2.4a Current and future climate risk of the road project Add Hazard Types Asset Categories Flood Coastal Erosion from Tool 2.3 Current Future Current Future Current Future Road alternative 1 Road alternative 2 Appendix A 91 Reporting Template A.2.4b Current and future climate risk estimates of road asset categories Add Hazard Types Asset Categories Flood Coastal Erosion from Tool 2.3 Current Future Current Future Current Future River bridges Coastal bridges Coastal roads (elevation < 1 meter) Roads (elevation > 1 meter) Drainage systems Natural slopes/cuts Add more asset types as appropriate Reporting Template A.2.5 Internal risks synopsis and preliminary loss estimates Direct Loss Hazard Current Risk Future Risk Projected (due to physical Indirect Loss Type Level Level Consequences damage) Fill cell based on Low/ Med ium / Low/ Med ium / Provide a rough Provide a rough consequence Hi g h High estimate in US$ estimate in US$ score Flood Coastal erosion Add rows with other hazards (from Tool 2.3) Appendix A 92 Reporting Template A.2.6 External climate-induced risks and contingencies External Factors impacted by Consequences for Roads External Risk Level Contingencies Climate Change Include only factors that Describe how the external Can the risk be mitigated? Low/ Med ium /Hig h are relevant to the project factor will impact the project If yes, describe contingencies Connecting infrastructure Land-use changes Geomorphological and environmental changes Technological changes Demographic changes Transport changes Policy and regulation changes Other (complete as appropriate) Reporting Template A.2.7 Climate adaptation strategies synopsis Risk Level Risk Level Climate Adaptation Strategy (prior to adaptation) (after adaptation) HAZARD #1 (e.g., flood) #1.1 Brief description of the adaptation Low/ Med ium /Hig h Low/ Med ium /Hig h strategy #1.2 Description of an alternative adaptation strategy (if applicable) #1.3 Description of an alternative adaptation strategy (if applicable) HAZARD #2 (e.g., prolonged heat waves) #2.1 Complete as appropriate Appendix A 93 Reporting Template A.2.8 Appraisal of adaptation strategies for hazard protection (example refers to flood protection) Climate Adaptation Risk Level Benefits Cost (US$) Strategy (Combination of different Resilience GHG Adaptive Biodiversity Social Green (Prior adaptation) adaptation measures) Resilience of through emissions capacity protection acceptance funding Number and description Low/Medium/ Low/Medium/ Low/Medium/ Low/Medium/ Low/Medium/ Low/Medium/ Low/Medium/ Low/Medium/High High High High High High High High #1.1 e.g., elevated road alignment + caisson breakwaters + vegetation (mangroves) # 1.2 e.g., beach L M H nourishment + elevated flood protection Complete as appropriate Appendix A 94 Reporting Template A.2.9 Estimation of GHG emissions of the “do nothing” option Project Construction Emissions O&M Emissions Overall Project Emissions Alternative Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Complete as appropriate Reporting Template A.2.10 Costs and benefits of climate mitigation strategies Climate Benefits Cost Mitigation (US$) Strategy (Combination of different GHG Health O&M cost Biodiversity Social Green (preliminary mitigation reduction benefits savings protection acceptance funding cost) measures) Number and Low/Medium/ Low/Medium/ Low/Medium/ Low/Medium/ Low/Medium/ Low/Medium/ description High High High High High High #1 e.g., LED lighting system + solar- powered lighting + NbS for erosion protection # 2 e.g., green retaining wall s+ optimized pavement bituminous mixture + inclusion of e- mobility lane Complete as appropriate Appendix A 95 Reporting Template A.3.1 Comparing climate strategies via arithmetic MCA MCA Criteria GHG Define other Total weighted No Climate Action Life-cycle Project’s Community Environmental Social Alignment CAPEX emissions criteria as score cost resilience resilience benefits benefits with policies reduction appropriate Weights (should add to 1) W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 Wn “Do nothing” solution (i.e., no climate 1 strategy is implemented) Strategy (specify climate adaptation 2 and mitigation measures) 3 Alternative strategy (if applicable) 4 Complete as appropriate Appendix B 96 Appendix B LIBRARIES PROJECT Library B.2.1 Indicative climate-related hazards to roads Hazard Name Hazard Description ALIGNMENT WITH Impacts on Road Assets Intensity Measures (IMs)/ Indicators Relevant to Road Assets CLIMATE POLICIES Coverage of inland due to chronic sea level rise. Coverage of road assets (e.g., road pavement) located - Change of sea level as a global average CHRONIC HAZARDS Inland Inundation at low altitude, in close proximity to the seaside. - Change of sea level locally - Measurement of potential sea-level anomalies Coastal erosion is the process by which local sea- Gradual deterioration of coastal road assets, such as - Measurement of local sea-level rise level rise, strong wave action, and coastal flooding bridge foundations, earthworks, etc. Damage could - Soil type/stiffness and strength wear down or carry away rocks, soils, and/or sands lead to malfunction or even to subsequent collapse. - Wave energy, etc. Coastal Erosion along the coast. SEA LEVEL RISE The temporary increase, at a particular locality, in Temporary coverage of road assets (e.g., road - Measurement of potential sea-level anomalies the height of the sea due to tidal conditions affecting pavement) located at low altitude, in close proximity - Duration of tidal sea-level rise, etc. Tidal Waves/ ACUTE HAZARDS the coastal environment. to the seaside. Damage of coastal road infrastructure Storm Surge (bridges, road furniture, etc.). Potential accidents, injuries/deaths. A mass of material that has moved downhill because Displacement/instability or even collapse of road - Water level and wave energy Landslides/Rockfalls of gravity, often assisted by water when the material assets (e.g., bridges, retaining structures, etc.) - Soil type (as a result of coastal is saturated. Sea-level rise may cause landslides due located within an area that is prone to landslides. - Slope angle, etc. erosion) to coastal erosion. The overflowing of the normal confines of a stream - Operational disruption due to coverage of the road - Measurement of flood height or other body of water, or the accumulation of water pavement with water. - Peak water velocity River Flood over areas that are not normally submerged. - Scouring of bridge foundations and subsequent - Maximum 24-hour flood volume failure. - Total flood volume per month/year - Frequency of flood events per month/year, etc. Accumulation of water in urban areas due to - Operational disruption due to coverage of the road - Measurement of flood height extreme precipitation and failure of the drainage pavement with water - Peak water velocity system. - Damage of the road furniture - Maximum 24-hour flood volume Urban Flooding - Potential accidents - Total flood volume per month/year - Frequency of flood events per month/year, etc. ACUTE HAZARDS PRECIPITATION The temporary increase, at a particular locality, in Periodic increase of sea level may affect low-altitude - Measurement of potential sea-level anomalies Coastal Flood/Storm the height of the sea due to extreme meteorological road assets; water could cover the pavement and - Duration of sea-level rise, etc. Surge conditions (precipitation, low atmospheric pressure cause operational disruptions and/or car accidents. and/or strong winds). A mass of material that has moved downhill because Displacement/instability or even collapse of road - Soil type of gravity, often assisted by water when the material assets (e.g., bridges, retaining structures, etc.) - Soil permeability Landslides/Debris is saturated. located within an area that is prone to landslides. - Slope angle Flow - Groundwater level - Pore - water pressure, etc. A form of precipitation consisting of individual ice Operational disruption and damage of road furniture. - Amount of snow per month/year and seasonal change of crystals (snow) or solid ice (hail). Accidents may occur due to ice/snow on the precipitation patterns pavement. - Maximum hail size Snowfall/Hail - Duration of the event - Frequency of hail events or extreme snowfall per year - Speed of ice, etc. Temperature that is rare (unusually high) in a - Asphalt rutting, flushing, and bleeding of bituminous - Maximum temperature per month/year particular place and at a particular time of year (i.e., surfaces and/or cracking. - Number of summer days (e.g., days with maximum higher than the 10th or 90th percentile of a - Loss of bitumen stiffness and subsequent temperature >25οC) per year, etc. CHRONIC HAZARDS Excessive Heat probability density function estimated from permanent deformations due to traffic loading. observations). - Decrease of productivity during construction, operation and maintenance due to unhealthy working conditions. Temperature that is rare (unusually low) in a - Asphalt rutting, flushing and bleeding of bituminous - Minimum temperature per month/year particular place and at a particular time of year (i.e., surfaces and/or cracking. - Number of cold days (e.g., days with maximum lower than the 10th or 90th percentile of a - Loss of bitumen stiffness and subsequent temperature < 20οC), etc. Excessive Cold probability density function estimated from permanent deformations due to traffic loading. TEMPERATURE observations). - Decrease of productivity during construction, operation and maintenance due to unhealthy working conditions. A period of abnormally dry weather lasting long - Increased mortality of plants along road alignments - Standardized precipitation index (SPI) enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance. (planted slopes, embankments, etc.). This may - Soil moisture, Drought Drought is a relative term and must refer to the subsequently increase risk of flooding, landslides, etc. - Groundwater and reservoir storage ACUTE HAZARDS particular precipitation-related activity that is under - In combination with temperature rise, drought may - Length of the longest period of consecutive days without discussion. cause asphalt deterioration. rain, etc. Progressive loss of sea ice, glacier, or ground (soil or Displacement/instability or even collapse of road - Sub-surface temperatures Ice Melt/Permafrost rock, including ice and organic material) that remains assets located within a permafrost area prone to - Near permafrost surface air temperature Thaw at or below 0°C for at least two consecutive years. melting and ice displacement. - Melting ratio - Ice displacement per year, etc. Uncontrolled fires that burn in wildland vegetation, - Partial operational disruption of road network. - Total number of fires per month/year (frequency) often in rural areas. - Destruction of plantation along road alignments. - Total land area burned (magnitude) Wildfires - Age of forest and plantation - Humidity of the area, etc. A violently rotating column of air touching the Tree falls, signpost failures, difficulty in driving, and - Maximum wind speeds ACUTE HAZARDS Tornadoes/Twisters/ ground, usually attached to the base of a consequent operational disruptions and accidents. - Frequency of tornadoes per month/year Hurricanes/Tropical thunderstorm. In the case of tropical cyclones, the - Maximum wind gust speeds per month/year WIND Cyclones term refers to a strong, cyclonic-scale disturbance - Number of consecutive days with extreme wind (i.e., that originates over tropical oceans. speed > 70 mph) per month/year, etc. The result of terminal winds raising large quantities Coverage of network assets with dust and - Dust particle concentrations, Dust Storms of dust into the air and reducing visibility at eye level consequent operational disruption and/or car - Dust storm average duration, etc. (1.8 meters) to less than 1,000 meters. accidents. Appendix B 97 Library B.2.2a Indicative vulnerability indicators of road assets exposed to sea-level rise Asset Vulnerability Measures Rationale Category Indicators Coastal roads Road elevation - Relative elevation to sea level (mean, Road segments with higher elevation highest tidal, etc.) are less vulnerable to inundation. Coastal roads Existence/ - Structural condition Retaining walls, dikes, sea walls or condition of - Maintenance (e.g., visual signs of other flood defense infrastructure will sea-side corrosion) protect the road from sea-level rise protection - Previous incidents of overflows hazards and reduce road vulnerability. Coastal roads Historic coastal - Distance from road Roads at locations where coastal erosion - Progressive rate of erosion (e.g., annual erosion has already occurred and is development erosion rate) already progressing are likely to be - Exposed tree roots, rocks, stream-like impacted first. indentations Coastal roads Exposed - Distance from road Even if the road is protected against adjacent areas - Inundated area during past events sea-level rise, road inundation may occur by inflowing water from adjacent flooded areas. Coastal roads/ Foundation soil - Lithological classes Different types of soil have different bridges - Permeability strength, deformability, and drainage - Strength properties characteristics, and thus can be less or more susceptible to erosion and subsidence. Natural slopes Bedrock - Geology - Different geological units have or cuts material - Historic landslides (e.g., signs of displaced different susceptibility to landslides. soil, inclined trees, etc.) - Areas that have historically - Stream hydrography and erosion experienced landslides are more generally vulnerable. - The existence of springs and high ground-water level increases the risk of landslide. Natural slopes Slope Inclination Increasing inclination increases the or cuts risk of landslides. Library B.2.2b Indicative vulnerability indicators of road assets exposed to extreme precipitation events Vulnerability Asset Category Measures Rationale Indicators Road section Elevation - Relative elevation Road segments with low elevation in relation to the adjacent areas are more prone to inundation. Road section Proximity to waters - Distance Road segments closer to inland (rivers, streams, lakes, waters are more likely to flood in shoreline, coastline, case of an extreme event. etc.) Road section Land use/cover - Type of use/cover (e.g., Road segments that are located near dense/coarse vegetation, different types of land use/cover dense/coarse built areas, etc.) have different susceptibility to floods (e.g., a densely vegetated area is less likely to flood in comparison to a parking area with asphalt). Appendix B 98 Vulnerability Asset Category Measures Rationale Indicators Road section Status of existing - Frequency of maintenance The sufficiency and efficiency of the drainage network on - Drainage capacity overall drainage network on which which the road the road is dependent is important drainage system to avoid flooding. depends Road section Pavement type - Porosity of the pavement The type and material of the material pavement plays an important role in the capacity of the road to be infiltrated by, or retain water. Impermeable surfaces are more likely to experience issues with flooding or runoff water. Road section Road subgrade - Strength and permeability of - Clay strata are more susceptible to the subgrade material subsidence and permanent - Groundwater level settlements. - A high groundwater level further increases the above risk. Road section Road cleaning system - Frequency of waste removal Inefficient cleaning/maintenance can and sedimentation/debris reduce the drainage capacity of the clearing from rivers, streams, road and increase the likelihood of trenches, outlets, and other flooding or debris flows. Road drainage infrastructure segments with increased waste, elements sedimentation, or debris are more likely to experience issues first. Road section Water flow - Size of contributing area Roads that accumulate water from accumulation larger areas are more likely to flood. Road section Sliding risk - Steep road gradients Roads with increased gradients (e.g., exits/entrances of highways) are more prone to closures during intense snowfalls. Road section Proximity of trees - Trimming maintenance During heavy snowfalls, trees may frequency fall. Drainage system Drainage capacity of - Sizes, shapes, capacity Road segments that have higher pipes/culverts/trenches drainage capacity (overcapacity) with or other drainage respect to their drainage demand infrastructure (i.e., beyond design codes) present increased redundancy to flooding. Bridges - Structural type and - Bridge height - Bridges with high clearance foundation - Bridge deck (continuous or experience reduced flood non-continuous) stressing/impacts and thus are less - Bridge foundation (footings or vulnerable. piles) - Bridges that are built over streams - Foundation soil on a bed of gravel/sand are prone to scouring as the racing floodwater “scours away” the bed downstream from its piers, weakening their ability to hold up the structure. - Bridges on piled foundations are less vulnerable to scouring, Embankments Slope (and height) - Inclination - Road embankments or cuts with - Slope height very steep slopes are more likely to fail during extreme precipitation events. Appendix B 99 Vulnerability Asset Category Measures Rationale Indicators - High embankments are more vulnerable to displacements. Embankments / Bedrock material - Geology - Different geological units have natural slopes / cuts - Historic landslides (e.g., signs different susceptibility to landslides. of displaced soil, inclined trees, - Areas that have historically etc.) experienced landslides are generally - Stream hydrography and more vulnerable to them. erosion - The existence of springs and high groundwater levels increases the risk of landslides. Tunnels/underground Tunnel stability - Structure weight (including the - In extreme flood events, structures weight of the overlying soil underground structures may layers) experience uplift. - Anchoring systems Tunnel/subways Openings - Stairways, vent bays, elevators - In extreme precipitation events, within the surge zone storm-water may spill into the underground structure through openings, impeding operations and causing physical damage to assets and equipment. - Installation of flood gates and barriers can reduce vulnerability. Library B.2.2c Vulnerability Indicators of road assets exposed to heat-waves and wildfires Asset Vulnerability Measures Rationale Category Indicators Road Truck load/traffic - Volume of heavy vehicle traffic Road segments with higher volume of truck pavement - Average daily truck traffic traffic are more likely to experience issues due to temperature rise because pavements experience heavier stress on those segments. Road Temperature Threshold value - Pavement binders are designed to pavement threshold in withstand specific temperature thresholds. pavement binder Asphalt may experience rutting if pavement temperatures exceed the high-temperature thresholds. - Polymer-modified binders are less sensitive to damage from high temperatures. Road Past experience Length of damaged road in the past - Road segments that already experience pavement with temperature rutting may experience worsening problems damage as the temperature increases. Concrete - Thermal Thermal expansion coefficient of - Different types of concrete have different assets (e.g., susceptibility of concrete embedded heat tolerance, expressed as the concrete concrete thermal expansion coefficient. pavements, - Existence/ - In jointed, plain concrete pavement, the bridges) condition of traverse contraction joints allow for load concrete pavement transfer without damage to the pavement, joints as long as the joints are functioning properly. Therefore, the condition of joints is an indicator of how likely concrete assets Appendix B 100 are to be damaged during high temperatures. Embankments Properties of the Permeability, strength, - Abrupt melting of the permafrost layer is subgrade soil deformability, thermal state, leading to frost heaving of pavements and freezing-thawing cycles permanent subsidence. – Clayey peat-silt strata are generally more susceptible to degradation. Library B.2.2d Indicative vulnerability indicators of road assets exposed to extreme wind Asset Vulnerability Measures Rationale Category Indicators Signals Structural integrity Signal height and supporting system Lightweight road infrastructure that is not (e.g., single pole support, frame safely anchored may fall when subjected to support, etc.) extreme wind gusts. Road Proximity to trees - Proximity of trees to power lines Although not a road asset, the existence of and the road trees along the road increases the likelihood of - Trimming maintenance frequency damage during extreme wind events. Road Proximity to non- - Number of structures (e.g., large Road segments very close to vulnerable-to- windproofed sun shade shelters, flat-style roofs, wind structures are more likely to experience structures and trees etc.) that are prone to wind damage issues during extreme wind events. Road Proximity to power - Density of power utilities Road segments with more power utilities and utilities - Underground or over-ground power lines above ground are more likely to power lines experience issues during extreme wind events. - Age of infrastructure utilities Road Proximity to dust Density and height of wind-break Wind-borne debris may cause significant deposits walls disruption to the road network. The presence of wind-break walls decreases vulnerability. Appendix 101 Library B.2.3a List of indicative adaptation measures for road projects subjected to sea-level rise Sea-Level Rise Multiple Benefits Applicable Risk Preliminary Cost Adaptation Measures Inland Coastal Tidal waves Landslides/ GHG Adaptive Biodiversity Social / storm to Reduction Considerations Green funding inundation erosion rockfalls emissions capacity protection acceptance surge High cost. Retreat from the shoreline can be Planning expensive, unnecessary, Complete as Change road alignment ● ● ● ● Coastal roads High and sometimes impossible, High Low Low appropriate No especially in highly modified environments. High cost. Depends on the Causeways, size of the road, the Complete as Elevate road alignment ● ● bridges High elevation and the High Low Low appropriate No availability of fill materials. Medium/High cost. Cost Elevate flood protection Coastal roads, largely depends on the size Complete as (bulkheads, seawalls, ● ● causeways, High of the intervention, the High Medium Low appropriate No dikes) bridges materials and the construction method. Structural (Hard Solutions) Revetment/shoreline Coastal roads, hardening ● ● ● causeways, Medium Low cost Medium High Medium Medium No (rock armoring, stone flood barriers gabions) Coastal roads, Caisson breakwaters; Medium/ ● ● bridges; High Medium/High cost Medium Low Medium No artificial reefs; groynes High causeways Slope stabilization measures (landforming, ● Coastal cliffs Medium Medium cost Medium High Medium Medium No littoral strip reloading, benches) Slope protection measures (rockfall-containing system, littoral strip Medium/ ● Coastal cliffs High Medium/High cost Low Low Low No reloading, mesh, High bolted/anchoring/shotcret ed faces) Planting vegetation Coastal cliffs, causeways, Low/Mediu Low cost (installation and (trees, ● ● ● clayey bank m maintenance) Low High High High Yes marshes/mangroves) coast Medium cost (installation Beach nourishment NbS ● Sandy coast Medium Medium High Medium High Yes and maintenance) Berms and dunes ● ● Any coast Low Low cost Low High High High Yes Natural reef breakwaters Offshore (to Low/Mediu ● ● Low cost Low High High High Yes (e.g., oyster reefs) all coastlines) m Early warning for extreme Solutions ● ● Coastal roads Medium Low/Medium cost Low High N/A High Yes surge conditions Soft Field monitoring of Medium/ ● ● Low/Medium cost Low High N/A High Yes precarious slopes Coastal Cliffs High Appendix 102 Library B.2.3b List of indicative adaptation measures for road projects subjected to extreme precipitation events Increased Precipitation Preliminary Multiple Benefits Applicable Risk Cost Adaptation Measures Coastal River Hurricane/ food/ Landslide/ Snowfal to Reduction Consideration GHG Adaptive Biodiversity Social Green funding flood urban storm debris flow l s emissions capacity protection acceptance flooding surge Increase surface drainage Roads on (e.g., side drains, larger level/rolling Yes (applicable for ● ● ● Medium Low/Medium Low Low N/A N/A culverts, sustainable urban (mountainous) Sustainable drainage) terrain Drainage Systems) Increase subsurface drainage (e.g., drainage pipes, Roads on level/rolling Low/ subgrade drainage, internal ● ● ● ● (mountainous) Medium Medium/High Medium Low N/A N/A drains of retaining soil terrain structures, etc.) Fixed barriers (levees, dykes, Road segments Structural (Hard Solutions) Low/ earth mounds, solid concrete ● ● within flood High High High Low N/A Medium walls) plains Increased road/bridge River bridge, road elevation (e.g., deep bridge ● ● segments within High High Medium N/A Low/ pillars) flood plains Medium Embankment/scour Road segments protection (e.g., rock riprap, within flood ● ● ● plains, Medium Medium Medium Medium N/A N/A subsoil protection) causeways, bridges Elevate entrances/install Underwater road floodgates in underground ● tunnels High High High Low N/A N/A facilities Surface treatment on roadway (anti-skid surface, ● All roads, bridges Medium Low/Medium Medium Medium N/A N/A permeable/reservoir pavements, ice fencing) Slope protection measures Roads on rolling Medium/ (retaining structures, surface- ● (mountainous) High Medium/High High Medium N/A N/A protection measures) terrain River/lake restoration ● ● Rural roads Low/Medium High Low High High High Yes Nature-based hydraulic measures to infiltrate and NbS ● ● ● All roads Low Low Low High Medium N/A store rainwater Restore/maintain urban ● ● ● ● All road Low Low Low High High High greenery Monitoring options for ● ● ● All roads Low/Medium Medium/High Low High N/A High drainage, maintenance/repair Soft Sol. Early warning for extreme ● ● ● ● All roads Low/Medium Low Low High N/A High weather Roads on rolling Field monitoring of ● (mountainous) High Low Low High N/A N/A precarious slopes terrain Appendix 103 Library B.2.3c List of indicative adaptation measures for road projects subjected to extreme heat waves and wildfires Temperature Preliminary Multiple Benefits Adaptation Risk Excessive Excessive Permafrost Applicable to Cost GHG Adaptive Biodiversity Social Measures Drought Wildfires Reduction Green funding heat cold thaw Considerations emissions capacity protection acceptance Surface treatment of roadways (e.g., anti- skid surface, porous coating, reflective ● ● ● All roads, bridges Medium Medium High High N/A N/A coatings, adjustment of bituminous mixture) Road subgrade treatment (e.g., Roads on level Structural (Hard Solutions) ● ● High High High Low N/A N/A remove moisture- terrain sensitive soils) High-albedo surfacing Low/ materials for paved ● All roads, bridges Medium High High N/A N/A Medium surfaces Natural slopes & Sun sheds to protect Low/ ● road cuts (roads Medium Medium Medium N/A N/A permafrost slopes Medium in rolling terrain) Increase thermal resistance of embankment structure (e.g., ● All roads High High High Low N/A N/A polystyrene insulation) or heat- extraction methods (e.g., heat drains) Restore/maintain Low/ ● Urban roads Low Low High High High urban greenery Medium Planning Create wildfire Roads close to Low/ ● Medium Medium Medium Low Low buffers forests Medium Emergency-response plans (evacuation Roads crossing ● Medium Medium Low High N/A High Yes Soft Sol. routes in case of forests wildfire) Fire-hazard Roads close to monitoring in areas ● forests High Medium Low High High High Yes of risk Appendix 104 Library B.2.3d List of indicative adaptation measures for road projects subjected to extreme winds Adaptation Wind Risk Preliminary Cost Multiple Benefits Tornadoes/ Applicable to GHG Adaptive Biodiversity Green Measures Dust Storms Reduction Considerations Social acceptance Twisters emissions capacity protection funding Wind-proofing of hanging Structural (Hard Solutions) signals, lights, and lightweight ● ● All roads High Low Low High N/A N/A equipment Installation of wind breaks ● ● All roads Medium Low Low High Low Low Suspension Bridge rehabilitation ● bridges High Low High Low N/A N/A Installation of impact ● All bridges Medium Medium Medium Low N/A N/A protection structures Soft Solutions Early warning (for extreme winds and low visibility ● ● All roads Medium Low/Medium Low High N/A High conditions) Appendix 105 Library B.2.4 List of indicative climate mitigation measures specific to road projects Multiple Benefits Preliminary Cost O&M Mitigation Measures Applicable to GHG Reduction Health Biodiversity Social acceptance/ Green Considerations benefits cost protection aesthetic improvements funding savings Medium: approximately 50 percent decrease in unit Efficient road vehicle fleets with a lower Material emissions and savings of more Medium Low N/A N/A N/A N/A unit emissions ratio for material transportation transportation than 20 percent in total transport emissions Low: explosives seem to produce GHG efficient methodologies for excavation of hard soil less emissions than other Earthworks Low N/A N/A Low Low N/A (such as explosives) excavation methodologies for hard soil Reduction in the use of lime as a means to stabilize Earthworks Low Low High N/A Medium N/A N/A soil Construction Optimized pavement structures (high-performance High: depending on the level of efficiency, construction method bituminous mixtures and continuously reinforced Pavements may reduce significantly the total Medium N/A High N/A Low N/A concrete pavement [CRCP] on bituminous base) GHG of the road construction Cold pavement mixtures as well as recycled/reclaimed Pavements Medium Medium N/A Low Medium Medium/High N/A aggregates and materials Use of alternative barriers (such as wood or plantation) Barriers Medium Low/Medium Medium Low High High N/A Usage of renewable energy during construction — Road network Medium High Medium N/A Medium Medium/High Yes installation of photovoltaic systems High: depending on the level of efficiency, the construction Optimization of construction to reduce transportation of Road network method may reduce significantly Medium Medium Low Low N/A No materials the total GHG emissions of the road construction Usage of eco-friendly textiles (instead of plastic or steel) for Retaining Medium Medium N/A N/A Medium Medium No mechanically stabilized walls structures Appendix 106 Applicable Preliminary Cost Mitigation Measures GHG Reduction to Considerations Multiple Benefits O&M cost Biodiversity Social acceptance/ Health benefits Green funding savings protection aesthetic improvements Medium: limiting asphalt resistance may significantly Limiting rolling resistance caused by pavement reduce traffic emissions. texture (considering safety regulations and Pavements However, safety issues Low N/A N/A N/A N/A No specifications) should be considered in the implementation of such solutions Installation of street-lighting systems powered Yes/ Lighting Low Low N/A Medium N/A High by renewable energy (e.g., solar panels) No Energy-efficient lighting systems (e.g., LED Yes/ Lighting Low Low N/A Medium N/A Medium lighting) No O&M High: electric vehicles could be among the most efficient Installation of electric vehicle charging stations Road network solutions for GHG Medium High N/A N/A Medium/High Yes reductions in road operation Medium: inclusion of e- mobility lane would Inclusion of e-mobility lane Road network promote the use of electric Low High N/A N/A Medium Yes vehicles Introduction of speed limits to mitigate GHG Road network Low / Medium N/A Medium Medium N/A Low No emissions Medium / High: maintaining Maintain asphalt in good condition (no breaks the pavements in good and cracks), aiming to reduce vehicle GHG Pavements condition significantly Low/Medium Medium Low N/A High No emissions reduces traffic emissions Slopes, retaining (affecting Construction and Planting vegetation (across the road network) structures, Medium / High Low Medium/High N/A High High Yes barriers, embankments Nature-based hydraulic measures to infiltrate O&M) NbS Drainage Medium Medium Medium/High N/A Medium/High Medium/High Yes and store rainwater Blue-green solutions (limiting the amount of concrete structures, e.g., gabion walls instead Road network Medium Low Medium / High N/A High High Yes of concrete walls) Restore/maintain greenery in urban and rural Road network Low / Medium Low High N/A High High Yes areas NbS for erosion protection (e.g., use of Retaining plantation for protection of coastal structures, Low Low/Medium Medium/High Medium High High Yes bridges, embankments) embankments Appendix 107