© 2020 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank www.worldbank.org pubrights@worldbank.org CHAPTER 1 – RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS FIGURE 1.1 FIGURE 1.2 FIGURE 1.3 FIGURE 1.4 FIGURE 1.5 . FIGURE 1.6. FIGURE 1.7 FIGURE 1.8 FIGURE 1.9 10 30 60 10 20 40 50 70 0 -10 Jun'16 FIGURE 1.10 Sep'16 Dec'16 Mar'17 Jun'17 Sep'17 Core CPI Dec'17 Headline CPI Mar'18 Food & Beverage Jun'18 Sep'18 Dec'18 Mar'19 Jun'19 Sep'19 Dec'19 Mar'20 FIGURE 1.11 FIGURE 1.12 FIGURE 1.13 FIGURE 1.14 FIGURE 1.15 15 FIGURE 1.16 FIGURE 1.17 FIGURE 1.18 16 17 18 Figure 1.19 Figure 1.20 Figure 1.21 Figure 1.22 TABLE 1.1 . Figure 1.23 Figure 1.24 Figure 1.25 Figure 1.26 © Figure 1.27 Figure 1.28 Figure 1.29 Large-scale portfolio outflows at the outset of the Figure 1.30 Banks’ NFA turned into deficit in March 2020 COVID-19 crisis 500 24 35% 400 Percent of Total Outstanding T-Bills 22 20 30% 300 18 25% 16 LE Billion 200 US$ Billion 14 20% 12 100 10 15% 8 0 10% 6 4 -100 5% 2 -200 0 0% Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Sep-18 Sep-19 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 May-18 May-19 May-20 Jan-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Jul-15 Jul-18 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-19 Jan-17 Jan-20 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-19 Apr-18 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-19 Apr-20 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 US$ Billion Percent of Total Outstanding T-bills CBE NFA Banks NFA 21 22 TABLE 1.2. TABLE 1.3. CHAPTER 2 – UNLOCKING EGYPT’S PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH AND JOB CREATION POTENTIAL © TABLE 2.1. .. = ∗ .. ∗ FIGURE 2.1 Figure 2.2 Figure 2.3 Figure 2.4 jobs Figure 2.5 Figure 2.6 ” FIGURE 2.7 Figure 2.8 Figure 2.9 FIGURE 2.10 FIGURE 2.11 FIGURE 2.12 Vietnam GDP per worker growth= 4.6% Peru GDP per worker growth = 3.4% Indonesia GDP per worker growth = 3.4% Morocco GDP per worker growth = 2.9% Sri Lanka GDP per worker growth = 5.2% Turkey GDP per worker growth = 3.0% Philippines GDP per worker growth = 3.5% Malaysia GDP per worker growth = 2.2% Egypt GDP per worker growth = 1.9% FIGURE 2.13 FIGURE 2.14 FIGURE 2.15 FIGURE 2.16 FIGURE 2.17 FIGURE 2.18 FIGURE 2.19   FIGURE 2.20 FIGURE 2.21 FIGURE 2.22 FIGURE 2.23 FIGURE 2.24 FIGURE 2.25 FIGURE 2.26 FIGURE 2.27 FIGURE 2.28 FIGURE 2.29 FY2003/04—18 FY2003/04—10 FY2010/11—16 FY2016/17—18 Average Change in Average Change in Average Change in Average Change in Growth Share of Growth Share of Growth Share of Growth Share of GDP (PPT) GDP (PPT) GDP (PPT) GDP (PPT) Agric., Pub. -1.3% -0.03 -8.6% -0.03 5.1% 0.00 5.3% 0.00 Agric., Priv. 3.1% -1.75 3.3% -1.79 3.0% 0.23 3.2% -0.24 Mining, Pub. 1.6% -3.36 4.9% -0.38 -2.7% -2.62 3.3% 0.21 Mining, Priv. 3.5% -0.45 8.0% 0.36 -1.4% -0.70 2.1% 0.01 Utilities, Pub. 5.4% 0.37 6.2% 0.13 5.2% 0.23 3.2% -0.02 Utilities, Priv. 9.3% -0.03 14.4% -0.06 5.7% 0.07 2.7% -0.01 Manufact., Pub. 2.4% -1.25 3.9% -0.42 0.9% -0.39 1.4% -0.05 Manufact., Priv. 4.0% -0.30 5.5% -0.03 2.2% 0.10 4.3% -0.03 Construct., Pub. 8.4% 0.26 9.1% 0.09 7.2% 0.11 9.3% 0.02 Construct., Priv. 9.3% 2.72 11.6% 1.22 6.4% 0.91 9.8% 0.23 Wholesale & Retail, Pub. 4.7% 0.06 5.5% 0.00 4.0% 0.06 4.1% -0.01 Wholesale & Retail, Priv. 4.7% 1.09 5.8% 0.30 3.6% 0.84 4.5% -0.21 Rest. & Hotels, Pub. 6.4% -0.01 14.9% 0.01 -6.1% -0.02 14.4% 0.01 Rest. & Hotels, Priv. 8.6% 0.08 17.1% 0.94 -5.4% -1.18 20.9% 0.58 Transport, Pub. 5.6% 0.41 7.6% 0.20 3.5% -0.05 5.3% 0.08 Transport, Priv. 5.5% 0.55 7.0% 0.24 4.0% 0.32 4.5% -0.06 ICT, Pub. 7.8% 0.18 8.0% 0.05 6.1% 0.06 12.5% 0.03 ICT, Priv. 15.9% 1.48 24.8% 0.83 6.7% 0.33 11.9% 0.13 Finance, Pub. 4.2% 0.03 5.1% -0.04 3.2% 0.12 3.6% -0.05 Finance, Priv. 4.4% 0.03 5.5% -0.03 3.4% 0.08 3.8% -0.03 Social Services, Pub. 3.7% -0.73 3.7% -1.25 4.4% 0.56 2.0% -0.33 Social Services, Priv. 4.6% 0.63 5.4% -0.32 3.7% 0.94 4.2% -0.25 Total Public GDP 3.3% -4.06 4.7% -1.66 1.7% -1.94 3.1% -0.11 Total Private GDP 4.7% 4.06 6.2% 1.66 2.9% 1.94 5.1% 0.11 Total Economy GDP 4.2% 0.00 5.7% 0.00 2.5% 0.00 4.4% 0.00 = ∑ =1 ∗ = ∑ =1 ∗ ∆ = ∑(, − ,−) ∗ ,− + ∑(, − ,− ) ∗ ,− + ∑(, − ,−) ∗ (, − ,− ) = = = ∆ , ,− , ,− − − − , − ,− ,− , − ,− =∑ ∗ ,− + ∑(, − ,− ) ∗ + ∑ ∗ (, − ,− ) − − − − = = = −− − , −,− ∗ ,− − ,− (, − ,−) ∗ − , −,− ∗ (, − ,− ) − ∆ = ∑ =1 ∆ ∗ ,− + ∑=1 ∆ ∗ , (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) Contribution GDP per worker, to overall GDP per worker growth GDP per worker weighted by GDP per decomposition employment share worker Employment Shares growth (= GDP per worker (Level in thousand x employment (in PPT) (in PPT) LE/worker) share) "intersect. "intersect. FY2004 FY2018 FY2004 FY2018 FY2004 FY2018 "within" realloc- realloc- static” dynamic" Agric., Pub. 7.4 3.1 0.6% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Agric., Priv. 47.6 68.8 30.3% 23.0% 14.4 15.8 1.3 5.9 -3.2 -1.4 Mining, Pub. 15353.0 23179.3 0.1% 0.0% 11.7 10.1 -1.4 5.4 -4.5 -2.3 Mining, Priv. 3285.0 3497.0 0.1% 0.1% 3.2 3.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 Utilities, Pub. 154.7 223.7 1.1% 1.2% 1.8 2.7 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.1 Utilities, Priv. 451.0 114.2 0.1% 0.3% 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.2 1.1 -0.8 Manufact., Pub. 219.4 495.9 3.1% 1.4% 6.8 6.8 0.1 7.8 -3.4 -4.3 Manufact., Priv. 165.0 148.5 7.9% 10.9% 13.1 16.2 2.8 -1.2 4.4 -0.4 Construct., Pub. 51.0 218.8 0.7% 0.4% 0.3 0.8 0.4 1.0 -0.1 -0.5 Construct., Priv. 43.3 60.4 6.8% 12.4% 2.9 7.5 4.1 1.1 2.2 0.9 Wholesale & Retail, 182.8 623.4 0.4% 0.2% 0.7 1.0 0.2 1.6 -0.4 -1.0 Pub. Wholesale & Retail, 111.6 137.9 11.6% 12.9% 12.9 17.8 4.5 2.8 1.4 0.3 Priv. Rest. & Hotels, Pub. 102.0 57.4 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Rest. & Hotels, Priv. 155.5 125.0 1.7% 2.7% 2.6 3.4 0.7 -0.5 1.5 -0.3 Transport, Pub. 171.6 454.3 1.8% 1.0% 3.0 4.4 1.3 4.6 -1.3 -2.1 Transport, Priv. 86.0 75.7 4.1% 6.8% 3.5 5.2 1.5 -0.4 2.2 -0.3 ICT, Pub. 213.3 215.7 0.1% 0.3% 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 ICT, Priv. 198.4 588.2 0.3% 0.5% 0.6 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.6 Finance, Pub. 333.9 982.1 0.9% 0.4% 3.1 4.0 0.8 5.6 -1.6 -3.1 Finance, Priv. 1357.4 1007.2 0.1% 0.2% 1.8 2.4 0.5 -0.4 1.2 -0.3 Social Services, Pub. 42.8 71.2 24.2% 17.0% 10.4 12.1 1.6 6.3 -2.8 -1.9 Social Services, Priv. 390.4 263.5 4.0% 7.9% 15.8 20.8 4.6 -4.7 13.8 -4.5 Total Economy 109.4 138.3 100.0% 100.0% 109.4 138.3 26.5 The Overall Economy GDP Per Worker Growth Decomposition – 22-sector totals 36.63 11.18 -21.37