2024 A BLUE CARBON READINESS BELIZE ASSESSMENT © 2024 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 | Internet: www.worldbank.org Disclaimer The content of this report does not reflect the official opinion of the project sponsors or their partner organization. Responsibility for the information and views expressed therein lies entirely with the authors. Please cite work as: World Bank. 2024. Belize: A Blue Carbon Readiness Assessment. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the World Bank Group encourages the dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given and all further permissions that may be required for such use (as noted herein) are acquired. The World Bank Group does not warrant that the content contained in this work will not infringe on the rights of third parties and accepts no responsibility or liability in this regard. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; email: pubrights@worldbank.org. PHOTO BY OCEANA BELIZE 4 PHOTO BY OCEANA BELIZE 5 AC ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The report “World Bank. 2024. Belize–A Blue Carbon Readiness Assessment” was produced by a core team of the World Bank Group and external partners co-led by Juliana Castano-Isaza (Natural Resources Management Specialist), Sylvia Michele Diez (Senior Environmental Specialist), Jiang Ru (Practice Manager), and Martina Bosi (Senior Climate Change Specialist), all of the World Bank Group. The report was written by Moritz von Unger, Regina Sánchez Sasso, Mackenzie Taggart, and Raquel Bustamante, all of Silvestrum Climate Associates. The team is grateful for the valuable insights and technical contributions from Belize government officials from the Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Sustainable Development and Climate Change, the Ministry of Blue Economy and Disaster Risk Management, the Blue Bond and Project Finance Permanence Unit, the National Climate Change Office, the Forestry Department, the Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute, the Department of Environment, the Protected Areas Conservation Trust, and the Fisheries Department. The team extends their gratitude to the team members of World Wildlife Fund Belize, The Nature Conservancy Belize, Oceana Belize, Turneffe Atoll Sustainability Association, The Pew Charitable Trusts, The Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Audubon Belize, the University of Belize Environmental Research Institute and The Belize Network of NGOs, as well as the partners that participated in the workshops and throughout the development of this report. The following peer reviewers provided valuable advice on this report Catalina Becerra (Climate Change Specialist), and Mariana Gonzalez Sanudo (Junior Professional Associate). Guidance and strategic direction were provided by Juergen Voegele (Planet Vice President), Valerie Hickey (Global Director, Environment Natural Resources and the Blue Economy), Christian Peter (former Practice Manager, Global Platform Unit), and Genevieve Connors (former Practice Manager, Latin America and the Caribbean Region). Our sincere appreciation is extended to Samanmalee Kumari De Alwis and Madalena Manjate for their diligent administrative support, to Pablo Porta and Laura Hidalgo (Estudio Relativo) for their creative graphic design contributions; and to John Burgess, and Shaheera Syed for her strategic communications expertise. The team is thankful for the funding support provided by PROBLUE. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the view of the Executive Directors of the World Bank, the governments they represent, or the counterparts consulted during the study process. Any factual errors are the responsibility of the team. 6 TC TABLE OF CONTENTS AL I II ABBREVIATIONS LIST 8 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 9 INTRODUCTION 19 1 DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) 21 1.1 Blue Carbon Ecosystems (Pillar 1-A)..................................................................22 1.1.1 BCE Extent & Carbon Stocks ...................................................................... 24 1.1.2 Drivers of Degradation ................................................................................28 1.1.3 Socioeconomic Valuation ............................................................................37 1.1.4 Exploring Restoration Opportunities in Belize ..................................... 40 1.1.5 Data Capacity ................................................................................................ 46 1.2 Greenhouse Gas Inventories (Pillar 1-B)............................................................48 1.2.1 National Greenhouse Gas Inventory .........................................................49 1.2.2 REDD+ Program & Forest Reference Level (FRL).................................... 50 1.3 Analysis of Pillar 1 ............................................................................................52 2 POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) 55 2.1 NDC Commitments ...........................................................................................57 2.2 NDC Implementation ........................................................................................59 2.3 Legal Protection for Blue Carbon Ecosystems ...................................................60 2.3.1 Protected Areas..............................................................................................62 2.3.2 The Forests (Protection of Mangroves) Regulations of 2018 ................ 64 2.3.3 Marine Spatial Planning and the Blue Economy .....................................67 7 2.4 Institutional Framework ...................................................................................69 2.4.1 Stakeholder Group 1......................................................................................71 2.4.2 Stakeholder Group 2.....................................................................................74 2.4.3 Stakeholder Group 3.....................................................................................75 2.4.4 Stakeholder Group 4.....................................................................................77 2.4.5 Stakeholder Group 5 .....................................................................................78 2.5 Analysis of Pillar 2.............................................................................................79 3 FINANCE (PILLAR 3) 81 3.1 Blue Investment Strategy .................................................................................83 3.2 Financing Mechanisms......................................................................................87 3.2.1 Blue Bond (Debt for Nature Swap)..................................................................87 3.2.2 Project Finance for Performance (PFP) ....................................................89 3.2.3 Protected Areas Conservation Trust (PACT)............................................ 90 3.2.4 Climate Finance Mobilization.....................................................................91 3.3 Carbon Markets ................................................................................................95 3.4 REDD+ Finance .................................................................................................96 3.5 Analysis of Pillar 3 ............................................................................................98 4 RECOMMENDATIONS 101 4.1 Pillar 1: Data and Analytics ..................................................................................................................102 4.2 Pillar 2: Policy & institutions ................................................................................................................104 4.3 Pillar 3: Finance ...................................................................................................................................106 III A BIBLIOGRAPHY 110 APPENDICES 115 Appendix 1: Decision Tree....................................... 116 8 AL ABBREVIATIONS LIST AF Adaptation Fund IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AI Artificial Intelligence IUCN International Union for Conservation BCE Blue Carbon Ecosystems of Nature BCMR Bacalar Chico Marine Reserve LULC Land Use and Land-Use Change BCRF World Bank’s “Blue Carbon Readiness MAR Fund Meso-American Reef Fund Framework,” also titled “Unlocking Blue MBECA Ministry of Blue Economy and Civil Aviation Carbon Development: Investment Readiness MPA Marine Protected Area Framework for Governments” MRV Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification BBFP Blue Bond and Project Finance MSP Marine Spatial Planning BBIC Belize Blue Investment Company NCCO National Climate Change Office BBRRS Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System NDC Nationally Determined Contribution BFSF Belize Fund for a Sustainable Future NFI National Forest Inventory BLA Blue Loan Agreement NFIS National Forest Information System BMF Belize Marine Fund NFMS National Forest Monitoring System BNCF Belize Nature Conservation Foundation NGO Non-Governmental Organization BNPAS Belize National Protected Areas System NPAS National Protected Areas System BUR Biennial Update Report NTZ No-Take Zones CMI Carbon Market Infrastructure OCCP Ocean Country Partnership Programme CBD Convention on Biological Diversity ODA Official Development Assistance CCAD Central American Commission for ORRAA Ocean Risk and Resilience Action Alliance Environment and Development PACT Protected Areas Conservation Trust CCMR Caye Caulker Marine Reserve PPP Public-Private Partnership CEO Chief Executive Officer PfP Project for Finance Permanence CFA Conservation Funding Agreement REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and CfRN Coalition for Rainforest Nations Forest Degradation CFP Climate Finance Portfolio SCA Silvestrum Climate Associates CO2e Carbon Dioxide equivalent SERC Smithsonian Environmental Research CZM Coastal Zone Management Institute CZMAI Coastal Zone Management Authority SGP Small Grants Programme & Institute SICA Central American Integration System DOC Dissolved Organic Carbon SLMS Satellite Land Monitoring System EDC Economic Development Council SOC Soil Organic Carbon EIA Environmental Impact Assessment SWCMR South Water Caye Marine Reserve ERI Environmental Research Institute TECS Total Ecosystem Carbon Stock FCPF Forest Carbon Partnership Facility TNC The Nature Conservancy FD Forestry Department UB University of Belize FOLU Forests and Other Land Use UBERI University of Belize Environmental FORMNET-B Forest Monitoring Network Belize Research Institute FRL Forest Reference Level UK United Kingdom GCCA+ Global Climate Change Alliance Plus UNEP United Nations Environment Programme GCF Green Climate Fund UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on GDP Gross Domestic Product Climate Change GCCA+ Global Climate Change Alliance WCMC World Conservation Monitoring Centre GEF Global Environment Facility WS13 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC GFCR Global Fund for Coral Reefs Guidelines for National Greenhouse GHG Greenhouse Gases Gas Inventories: Wetlands (Wetlands GMW Global Mangrove Watch Supplement) Ha Hectares WWF World Wildlife Fund HCMR Hol Chan Marine Reserve BELIZE: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 9 I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III PHOTO BY OCEANA BELIZE A The world has a pressing need to accelerate climate mitigation, enhance climate resilience, and transition to a more productive and resilient Blue Economy. BELIZE: 10 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report examines the readiness of Belize to facilitate, catalyze, and scale up public and private investments in coastal Blue Carbon, including through the international carbon markets. Belize is a country with high potential for development of Blue Carbon. Enabling factors include Belize’s wealth in blue natural capital, its embrace of integrative Blue Economy policies, and its considerable progress in laying groundwork for scaling investment, including through carbon markets. The current report applies a “Blue Carbon Readiness Framework” as developed in the World Bank’s recent flagship report “Unlocking Blue Carbon Development: Investment Readiness Framework for Governments.”1 It seeks to provide a harmonized assessment on how Belize can tap its Blue Carbon potential by simultaneously tackling technical, institutional, regulatory, and financial challenges, based on three intervention pillars. These are PILLAR 1 PILLAR 2 PILLAR 3 CHAPTER DATA AND ANALYTICS POLICY AND FINANCE I INSTITUTIONS II 1 The carbon market infrastructure assessment is detailed in a complementary report titled 2 “Belize Carbon Market Infrastructure Need Assessment.” 3 4 Blue Carbon refers to the carbon stored in coastal and marine ecosystems such as mangroves, III seagrasses, and salt marshes. These Blue Carbon Ecosystems (BCEs) are incredibly efficient at A capturing and storing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, helping to mitigate climate change. For Belize, Blue Carbon is particularly important due to the country’s extensive mangrove forests and seagrass beds, which not only augment global carbon sequestration but provide critical local benefits. These include protecting coastlines from erosion and storm surges, supporting biodiversity, and sustaining fisheries that are vital for local communities and the overall Belize economy. On a global scale, defending and restoring Blue Carbon ecosystems are essential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and combating climate change. The ecosystems are a key component of both national and international climate strategies. 1 World Bank 2023.  BELIZE: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 11 PILLAR 1: DATA AND ANALYTICS Belize’s Blue Carbon Ecosystems are vital components of the country’s ecological and economic fabric. CHAPTER BCEs are potent nature-based solutions that sequester carbon dioxide, mitigate coastal erosion, I and protect against storm surges, safeguarding both biodiversity and local communities. II As of 2020, Belize’s mangrove ecosystems spanned 57,854 ha, with an impressive Total 1 Ecosystem Carbon Stock (TECS) of 25.7 million metric tons. Research over the past five years 2 has significantly enhanced our understanding of the country’s mangrove extent and its carbon 3 storage capacity. Though mangroves face pressures from increased coastal development and 4 tourism, deforestation has remained relatively low, with only 5.4 percent of the total mangrove area lost over the last four decades. Seagrass beds, covering 229,146 ha, are also in danger III from coastal development, tourism, and pollution. But research on loss or damage and on their A carbon stocks is limited, presenting an opportunity for further exploration and discovery. Similarly, salt marshes, while present in Belize, have received minimal research attention regarding their extent and carbon stocks. This gap highlights another need for comprehensive mapping and assessment. Belize has a record of robust institutional capacity and collaborative efforts supported by NGOs and research institutes to gather comprehensive data on mangrove ecosystems. The University of Belize’s Environmental Research Institute (UBERI) and the Belize Forestry Department play central roles in data collection under initiatives such as the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and the Satellite Land Monitoring System (SLMS). Despite challenges in disaggregating mangrove BELIZE: 12 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY data within the National Forest Monitoring System (NFMS), UBERI’s annual monitoring operations at established sites in Turneffe Atoll provide crucial biomass and ecosystem data. International collaborations have further enhanced data capabilities, such as the development of Belize’s first Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) baseline. Moving forward, initiatives aim to strengthen data management and accessibility through platforms such as the Smithsonian’s Coastal Carbon Atlas and Belize’s National Forest Information System (NFIS). These efforts signal opportunities for enhanced collaboration and centralized data repositories for BCEs in the country. Belize’s policymakers are acutely aware of the need for dedicated environmental stewardship to protect the economic benefits that healthy BCEs provide. Research demonstrates the substantial socioeconomic contribution of BCEs toward sustainable economic growth. Mangroves alone provide an estimated annual value of US$174 million - US$249 million. In light of those impressive figures, mangroves deserve assessment that is more comprehensive, delving into indirect impacts. To date, studies have focused predominantly on mangroves and coral reef, but attention to seagrass ecosystems is growing, emphasizing the need for a holistic understanding of their economic importance. Mangrove ecosystems present a critical opportunity for restoration, particularly in light of the ambitious targets outlined in the country’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions. Experts engaged in mangrove research in Belize estimate the country’s restorable mangrove area to be roughly 405 ha. This assessment takes into account available data from annual monitoring, CHAPTER the specific drivers of mangrove degradation, and the minimum size for an effective and economically feasible restoration project. Priority areas for restoration, including in Belize City, I San Pedro, and Dangriga, have been pinpointed based on their potential to enhance coastal resilience, support lobster fisheries, and boost tourism. Restoration efforts will achieve optimal II success by carefully weighing the potential benefits for ecosystems and communities against 1 the associated costs, ensuring the practicality of staging restoration projects across Belize. 2 3 Belize has achieved significant progress in its greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory efforts, submitting 4 its fourth National GHG Inventory in 2020, which reaffirmed the country’s status as a net carbon III sink. Aligning with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, the inventory comprehensively covers Energy, A Industrial Processes, Agriculture, Forestry, Other Land Use (AFOLU), and Waste sectors. But though mangrove biomass data is included, the absence of Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) and Dead Organic Matter (DOM) data likely leads to underestimation of the carbon sequestration contributions of mangroves. Efforts are underway to integrate SOC and DOM data, leveraging findings from studies such as Morrissette et al. (2023). Belize’s REDD+ program, integral to its climate strategy, has advanced with the development of Forest Reference Levels (FRLs), including the recent introduction of a Zero FRL for 2021-2025, marking a critical milestone in forest emissions management. Future enhancements aim to refine emission factors and expand data coverage to include SOC and DOM, essential for robust emissions accounting and climate action planning. Including seagrass beds BELIZE: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 13 in Belize’s national GHG inventory would enhance the assessment of their substantial potential for carbon sequestration, aligning with efforts to comprehensively measure and leverage the country’s carbon sink status. This work would be akin to the ongoing evaluation of mangroves. Given BCEs’ widespread presence throughout Belize, incorporating data on mangrove soil organic carbon and seagrass carbon stocks could enhance the removals accounted for in the GHG inventory, contributing to a reduction in Belize’s net estimated emissions. Despite the many efforts Belize has made to gather data on blue ecosystems, there are still gaps that it should consider closing. Belize’s strategy for long-term monitoring of Blue Carbon Ecosystems in Belize is not nationally standardized, and in the case of salt marshes, no strategy exists at all (Recommendation 1, Pillar 1). Annual monitoring data for mangroves included in the National Forest Monitoring Program (NFMS) are not disaggregated from other forest types, making that program an inadequate source for actionable mangrove activity data. Although the NFMS includes permanent study plots on the Belizean mainland, none of these plots currently encompasses mangrove ecosystems. Instead, mangrove data in the NFMS are collected exclusively from study plots on Turneffe Atoll, creating a gap in knowledge of the health of mangrove ecosystems on the mainland (Recommendation 1, Pillar 1). The national seagrass area survey (2022) was derived from a one-time study, and current annual surveys by SeagrassNet only cover known sampling sites, leaving many seagrass areas unmapped and gaps in annual data collection efforts (Recommendation 2, Pillar 1). The lack of historical CHAPTER records of seagrass extent prior to 2000 prevents a comprehensive understanding of the drivers of degradation and temporal changes in seagrass dynamics (Recommendation 2, Pillar 1). National estimates of seagrass carbon stock in Belize rely on data from a global study using I average values from the Tropical West Atlantic, which could lead to significant over- or under- II estimation. In addition, ongoing monitoring by SeagrassNet does not include carbon stock 1 measurements, which hinders their inclusion in national inventories and carbon monetization 2 strategies (Recommendation 2, Pillar 1). 3 4 The current version of the National GHG Inventory (2020) does not include data on mangrove soil organic carbon (SOC) or dead organic matter. It omits seagrass and salt marsh ecosystems due III to limited or no data availability (Recommendation 1, Pillar 1). The current GHG inventory was A developed using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories but did not incorporate updated data provided in the 2013 Wetlands Supplement (Recommendation 1, Pillar 1). Despite confirmed presence of salt marshes, comprehensive national mapping of them has not been carried out (Recommendation 2, Pillar 1). As Belize works to upgrade its data collection, it should also move to create a centralized data repository for BCEs (Recommendation 3, Pillar 1). Currently, government agencies, NGOs, and academic researchers must access data from various, often inconsistent sources that may adhere to conflicting technical standards. The centralization of data storage would streamline future research efforts and support more informed decision-making. BELIZE: 14 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PILLAR 2: POLICY & INSTITUTIONS Through its policy and legal frameworks, Belize demonstrates a strong commitment to protecting and conserving Blue Carbon ecosystems (see Table 1). The country’s 2021 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) outlines specific objectives for Blue Carbon ecosystems, notably the additional conservation of 6,000 ha of mangroves by 2025 and 12,000 ha by 2030, as well as the restoration of 2,000 ha of mangroves by 2025 and another 2,000 ha by 2030. The NDC also comes with a broad commitment to enhance data on seagrass CHAPTER beds and to explore new financial mechanisms, such as monetizing Blue Carbon through carbon markets, including international carbon markets under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. I Table 1 below summarizes Belize’s policy and legal framework. II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY JULIANA CASTAÑO ISAZA BELIZE: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 15 TABLE 1. BELIZE’S POLICY AND LEGAL FRAMEWORK. ACT DESCRIPTION Blue Bonds Loan Act, 2021 Authorized the Government of Belize to enter into an agreement to establish the Blue Bond. Fisheries Resource Act, 2020 Adopted an ecosystem approach to ensure special protection for flora and fauna in marine reserves. It safeguards natural breeding and nursery grounds as well as habitats of aquatic life. The Forests (Protection of Mangroves) Created a framework to protect mangroves from clearance and alteration, Regulations, 2018 unless approved through permits and authorizations (see Section 2.3.2). The National Protected Areas System Establishes a national system of protected areas to coordinate their Act, 2015 management based on sustainable development principles. Coastal Zone Management (CZM) Act, Established the Coastal Zone Management Authority and a Coastal 1998 (last amended in 2015) Zone Management Institute, responsible for preparing a Coastal Zone Management Plan. Protected Areas Conservation Trust Created PACT, a financial entity through which protected areas (PACT) Act, 1996 (last amended in 2015) receive funding. Environmental Protection Act, 1992 Established the Department of Environment and included mangroves (amended in 1998) within the Belize Barrier Reef System. Specified that parties responsible for CHAPTER damaging mangroves would be liable to a fine Forest Act, 1927 (last amended in 2017) Defined mangroves as forests, making the Forest Department the authority responsible for their protection. I II 1 2 Belize is reinforcing its framework by passing new laws and amending existing ones. Currently, 3 discussions are underway on a Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Bill. Amendments 4 to the Protected Areas Conservation Trust Bill and the National Protected Areas Systems Act are in the works. In addition, a seagrass policy is under development, and the Coastal Zone III Management Act and Plan are under review. A The policies that Belize has in place are playing a crucial role in meeting conservation commitments, preserving natural resources, and fostering national economic growth. The establishment of Marine Protected Areas and the expansion of no-take zones are instrumental in conserving marine ecosystems, particularly Blue Carbon ecosystems. The Belize Sustainable Ocean Plan (BSOP), led by the Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute (CZMAI), aims to give the country a marine spatial planning program. This initiative seeks to create a comprehensive blueprint for sustainable development in the country, incorporating scientific and policy assessments followed by stakeholder engagement, plan development and adoption, and finally implementation and monitoring. BELIZE: 16 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Implementation of the Blue Bond in 2021 established a strong governance structure. That led to the creation of two key units: the Blue Bond and Project Finance (BBFP) Unit, which oversees the Blue Carbon financial strategies, and the Blue Economy Unit, which focuses on Belize’s marine resources for economic development. As demonstrated in Pillar 2, several institutions in the country’s Government are already working to protect Blue Carbon ecosystems in collaboration with numerous national and international organizations. While Belize’s legal framework continues to strengthen, key actions that would consolidate the country’s path toward a resilient Blue Economy remain pending. The Mangroves Regulations require further resources to ensure effective implementation, while the Forest and Environment Units need clear guidelines for sharing information on mangrove clearance permits (Recommendation 2, Pillar 2). The NDC tracking system that Belize has chosen should be frequently updated to provide detailed information on progress toward the country’s commitments, ensuring a clear understanding of where the gaps are (Recommendation 1, Pillar 2). Finally, the Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute should receive greater legal authority to protect seagrass meadows (Recommendation 3, Pillar 2). PHOTO BY OCEANA BELIZE CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A BELIZE: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 17 PILLAR 3: FINANCE Implementation of Belize’s updated NDC is estimated to cost US$1,906 million for the period that ends in 2030.2 Specifically, the cost to accomplish the targets on coastal and marine ecosystems is estimated to be close to US$416 million, with approximately US$290 million allocated for mangrove protection.3 CHAPTER Belize has demonstrated a steadfast commitment to enhancing its blue ecosystems through use of advanced financial instruments. The introduction of the Blue Bond in 2021 eliminated 12 percent of the country’s debt in exchange for the Government’s commitment to protect 30 percent of I Belize’s oceans, in addition to a range of other conservation measures. The debt conversion II allowed Belize to buy back USD 553 million—equivalent to a quarter of its total public debt—at a 1 45% discount from bondholders. This process led to a USD 189 million reduction in principal 2 outstanding. The refinancing savings enabled Belize to generate an estimated USD 180 million 3 in conservation funding over the next 20 years, derived from annual government cashflows and 4 an endowment funded by the Blue Loan. This initiative not only financed conservation efforts but strengthened institutional frameworks. Moreover, it has served as a model for implementing III effective financial and governance tools, such as the Belize Fund for a Sustainable Future (BFSF) A and the Blue Bond and Finance Permanence (BBFP) Unit. Critical to the success of these endeavors are key institutions and partnerships. The Protected Areas Conservation Trust (PACT) plays a crucial role in mobilizing funding and overseeing Blue Carbon projects. The Belize NDC Implementation Plan reports that approximately US$8 million has been allocated to fulfilling its NDC commitments in the oceans and coasts sector. This funding comes from the Blue Bond and support from multilateral and bilateral 2 Climate Finance Strategy of Belize 2021-2026. Commonwealth Climate Finance Access Hub of the Commonwealth Secretariat. 3 NDC Implementation Plan Brief of January 2022 BELIZE: 18 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY institutions (see Table 13). Notably, the implementation of REDD+ projects underscores the importance of this diversification in achieving the country’s commitments. Looking ahead, new initiatives reflect the country’s unwavering dedication to conserving its Blue Carbon ecosystems. The ongoing development of the Project Finance for Permanence initiative aims to bolster these efforts through strategic public-private partnerships. Similarly, the drafting of the Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Bill holds promise for securing additional finance. To further conserve and restore its Blue Carbon ecosystems, Belize should enter into new financial mechanisms and strengthen existing ones. Exploring new bilateral and multilateral grants and biodiversity credits and fostering public-private partnerships can attract increased funding for Blue Carbon ecosystems (Recommendation 4, Pillar 3). Creating a Blue Economy observatory to assess the ocean GDP and provide information on Blue Economy opportunities is also advised (Recommendation 3, Pillar 3). In addition, the Carbon Market Bill represents a promising initiative to mobilize further funding for Blue Carbon ecosystems. This measure should establish standards for implementing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and the voluntary carbon market, as well as provide core principles to benefit-sharing agreements (Recommendation 2, Pillar 3). Given that 70 percent of Belize’s CHAPTER mangroves are on private land, the Government should incentivize I private landowners to participate in Blue Carbon projects through II public-private partnerships 1 using a jurisdictional approach 2 (Recommendation 4, Pillar 3). 3 Belize should also consider raising 4 commissions from cruise ship III passengers and tourism fees so A as to increase revenue without expanding cruise ship capacity (Recommendation 5, Pillar 3). Finally, the Government should evaluate establishing a Blue Carbon Program Community Involvement Mechanism including benefit sharing, to facilitate community participation in decision-making concerning Blue Carbon ecosystems (Recommendation 6, Pillar 3). PHOTO BY REGINA SANCHEZ SASSO BELIZE: INTRODUCTION A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 19 II. INTRODUCTION Blue Carbon encompasses the carbon stored in coastal CHAPTER and marine ecosystems, including mangroves, salt I marshes, seagrass meadows, macroalgae (such as II kelp), and benthic sediments – recognized for providing 1 2 vital ecosystem services that benefit humanity. 3 4 III These ecosystems contribute to climate change mitigation by burying three to five times more A carbon per unit of area than tropical forests, while also offering adaptation benefits such as flood and storm protection, freshwater filtration, soil fertilization, and food production. Despite their economic, environmental, and social importance, Blue Carbon ecosystems (BCEs) face severe pressure from a range of degradation drivers, including agriculture, aquaculture, infrastructure, and urban development. Rapid and substantial action is needed to scale protection and restoration measures and provide the necessary funding. Studies have shown that the benefits of Blue Carbon initiatives – environmental, social, and economic – far surpass associated costs. However, bringing about these changes requires BELIZE: 20 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT INTRODUCTION substantial resources in data, science, finance, and tailored regulatory and institutional interventions. Governments – in their role as regulators, administrators, law enforcers, landowners, and social and economic mediators – are center stage in this process. With the pressing need to tackle climate mitigation, enhance climate resilience, and transition to a more productive and resilient Blue Economy, this report examines the readiness of Belize to facilitate, catalyze, and scale up public and private investments in coastal Blue Carbon, including through the international carbon markets. The report is the output of three work streams within the World Bank. First, under its Partnership for Market Implementation (PMI), the Bank, which assists countries to design, pilot, and implement carbon pricing instruments aligned with their development priorities, is providing targeted (or “just-in-time”) technical assistance support to Belize under the program’s Window 3. Second, the report aims to inform a World Bank lending operation in Belize, “Blue Cities and Beyond Project,” looking to improve access to climate- resilient national and municipal services and expand the range of socio-economic opportunities including through such sustainable financing mechanisms as carbon markets. Third, as part of its flagship program “Coastal Blue Carbon Opportunities for Blue Economy Development,” with funding from the Bank’s ProBlue trust fund, the report titled “Unlocking Blue Carbon Development: Investment Readiness Framework for Governments” was recently published to increase readiness of the public sector to engage in Blue Carbon development. The current report – together with assessments of three African countries – tests the robustness and usefulness of the readiness framework. The report is complemented by a report titled “Belize CHAPTER Carbon Market Infrastructure Needs Assessment,” which is being released in parallel. I Belize holds significant potential for Blue Carbon development, and the Blue Carbon Readiness Framework provides a comprehensive approach to harnessing this potential. Addressing technical, II institutional, regulatory, and financial aspects simultaneously will provide a harmonized 1 strategy for Belize. The Framework builds on three relevant intervention pillars: data and 2 analytics (Pillar 1), policy and institutions (Pillar 2), and finance (Pillar 3), aimed at promoting 3 and scaling up Blue Carbon initiatives. These pillars are organized along the decision tree. 4 III Each subsection below begins with a summary table and grading exercise. The exercise is to be A understood more as a shorthand for the overall findings on the specific section and less as a firm and final ranking on the readiness scale. More importantly, none of the grades are meant to be read as supporting any binary judgment on readiness (ready versus not ready). The authors understand readiness both as a growth curve and as a moving target. With this in mind, they have used the following guidance when assessing the grades (the amplitudes in each case indicating a spectrum): “low” means that relevant data, policy, and finance benchmarks and elements are not yet met or not yet in place; “moderate” means that several core benchmarks and readiness elements are met or that there is a clear pathway for meeting them; and “high” means that across data, policy, and finance points, relevant benchmarks and elements are met or in place. BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 21 1. DATA AND ANALYTICS PILLAR 1 CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY OCEANA BELIZE BELIZE: 22 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) 1.1 BLUE CARBON ECOSYSTEMS (PILLAR 1-A) FIGURE 1. SUMMARY TABLE FOR PILLAR 1.1 ON DATA AND ANALYTICS, BASED ON THE “INVESTMENT READINESS FRAMEWORK FOR GOVERNMENTS,” WORLD BANK. DECISION TREE PATHWAY STATUS STATUS EXPLANATION Does your country currently have any of the following Blue Yes – mangroves, seagrass, and Carbon ecosystems (BCEs): H salt marsh. mangroves, salt marsh, seagrass? A high-resolution map of mangrove extent for 2020 (about 58,000 ha) was developed. The first national carbon stock estimate (25.7 million metric tons) for mangroves was Do you have data on the compiled thanks to an international following for BCEs within your H research collaborative along with CHAPTER country: extent/ area, human the Government. Activity data activity data? on mangrove deforestation are available for 1980-2017. Extent I and area of seagrass were mapped for 2021, and activity data are II available for 2003-2011. 1 Mangroves are assessed within 2 the National Forest Monitoring 3 System, but annual data are not disaggregated from other forest 4 types. Mapping of salt marshes has III not been carried out. Activity data are limited by scale and timeframe A for seagrass, and not available for salt marshes. QUALITY L M H PROGRESS → → ACHIEVEMENTS MISSING LOW HIGH LIMITED ADVANCED Belize has three established Blue Carbon Ecosystems (BCEs): mangroves, salt marsh, and seagrass. The following sections outline relevant data for these BCEs. BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 23 FIGURE 2. MAP OF BELIZE’S BLUE CARBON ECOSYSTEMS. CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A Belize Blue Carbon Ecosystems Seagrass meadows Mangroves 0 10 20 30 km Regional Boundary Source: Silvestrum Climate Associates 2023. BELIZE: 24 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) 1.1.1 BCE EXTENT & CARBON STOCKS MANGROVES TABLE 2. MANGROVE DATA FOR BELIZE. National area (2020)a 57,854 ha National Total Ecosystem Carbon Stock (TECS)b 25.69 ± 1.2 Tg C Units: Tg-teragrams, C-carbon, Mg-megagrams, • Mean TECS 444.05 ± 21.0 Mg C ha−1 ha-1-hectares, yr-1- year, • Mean Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) 369.70 ± 17.7 Mg C ha−1 CO2e – carbon dioxide equivalence. • Mean Biomass 74.35 ± 6.2 Mg C ha−1 Above ground biomass carbon accumulation ratebcd 1.58 t C ha-1/yr-1 Sources: Cissell et al. 2021; a b Morrissette et al. 2023; c Below ground biomass carbon accumulation ratebcd 1.24 t C ha-1/yr-1 IPCC Wetland Supplement Soil organic carbon accumulation ratebc 1.46 t C ha-1/yr-1 (default value); Kauffman d and Donato 2012. Total carbon accumulation rateb 4.28 t C ha-1/yr-1 (15.69 t CO2e) CHAPTER I As of 2020, mangrove ecosystems in Belize covered a total of 57,854 ha, with 37,204 ha located II along the mainland coastal zone and 20,650 ha distributed among the islands and cayes.4,5 While 1 the majority of mangroves stand along the coast of mainland Belize and on its islands, some are 2 found inland, as far as 65 km from the coast in certain cases.6 At the national level, Cissell et al. 3 (2021) present the highest-resolution available (10m Sentinel-2) map of mangroves across Belize, 4 providing a comprehensive view of mangrove cover as of 2020. This map not only offers a more III precise accounting of mangrove extent in both cayes and mainland areas. It also addresses the A historical underestimations in these regions due to limitations of coarser resolution imagery, such as Landsat’s. National-level data on changes in mangrove area (loss/gain) between 1980 and 2017, derived from Landsat imagery, are available.7 Prior to these studies, the primary resource for such data was a study conducted by Zisman in 1998 of the national mangrove area for the year 1990 using Landsat imagery. Data on annual mangrove extent within Belize are also available through 4 Cissell et al. 2021. 5 Mapping National Mangrove Cover for Belize used Google Earth Engine and Sentinel-2 Imagery. 6 Cherrington et al. 2020. 7 Cherrington et al. 2010, 2020. BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 25 Global Mangrove Watch (GMW). The GMW platform offers spatial data spanning from 1996 to 2020, on topics including the extent of mangrove habitat, alerts, biomass, and Blue Carbon. Belize’s mangrove ecosystems harbored an estimated Total Ecosystem Carbon Stock (TECS) of 25.7 million metric tons as of 2020.8 The TECS is based on a national mangrove area of 57,854 ha9 and includes the carbon pools of above- and below-ground living biomass, standing and downed dead wood, and soil organic carbon (SOC – limited to 1m depth per IPCC guidelines). The TECS serves as the first national comprehensive carbon stock estimate for mangrove ecosystems in Belize, and was a byproduct of an international research collaborative between the Smithsonian Environmental Research Institute (SERC), NGOs including the Pew Charitable Trusts and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), and the Government of Belize. The mean estimate for TECS was 444.05±21.0 tC/ha, the average biomass per plot was estimated at 74.35±6.2 tC/ha, and the nationwide average for sediment carbon stock was estimated at 369.70±17.7 tC/ha across all sites and sampling intervals (see Table 2). Estimates of mangrove TECS exhibit notable disparities across Belize, influenced by factors such as distribution (mainland or offshore), habitat type, and tree height. Mean TECS was greatest in mangrove ecosystems located on offshore cayes and islands, in stands located in riverine (within the riparian corridor or CHAPTER a river) areas, and stands dominated by medium to tall mangroves (>2m).10 Roughly 33 percent of Belize’s mangroves are located offshore and I represent roughly 42 percent of the national TECS II budget (see Table 2). Data indicate that while there 1 is no significant difference in SOC stock between 2 medium and tall mangroves, there is a threshold for 3 mangrove height’s influence on TECS, because taller 4 mangroves have higher biomass carbon stock. No specific explanation was provided in Morrissette et al. III for why mean TECS was higher in certain habitat types A or between offshore and mainland areas. Further investigation into the sources and drivers of carbon delivery and burial, as well as species diversity— considering that Rhizophora species typically have higher mean TECS than Avicennia species11)— PHOTO BY JULIANA CASTAÑO ISAZA may provide additional clarity. 8 Morrissette et al. 2023. 9 Cissell et al. 2021. 10 Morrissette et al. 2023. 11 Kauffman et al. 2020. BELIZE: 26 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) TABLE 3. MEAN TECS FOR THREE FACTORS INFLUENCING MANGROVE CARBON STOCKS. MEAN TECS (MG C ha-1) 0 100 200 300 400 500 Distribution Offshore 515.96 Mainland 375.92 Habitat Type Caye 515.96 Riverine 453.55 Lagoon 269.18 Tree Height Tall 546.63 Medium 496.33 Dwarf 185.38 CHAPTER Units: Mg-megagrams, C-carbon, ha-1- per hectare. Sources: a Morrissette et al. I II 1 Including sediment organic carbon (SOC) stocks to a depth of 3 meters increased the national TECS 2 estimate by roughly 36 percent, from 25.7 to 34.9 million metric tons of carbon.12 Constraining 3 sediment cores to a depth of 1 meter as outlined by IPCC reporting standards can lead to 4 significant underestimates of SOC stocks, and consequently, TECS. As a result, sampling to III a depth of 3 meters is a common practice by mangrove researchers.13 In Belize, deposits of A mangrove peat (mangrove sediment that stores SOC) can reach depths of 10-12 meters on offshore islands and cayes. Researchers developing the nationwide TECS collected soil cores to a depth of 3 meters when possible in an effort to better account for SOC stocks in Belize’s mangroves. Riverine habitats stood out as having the highest mean SOC stock compared to other habitat types when including these deeper sediments. These findings demonstrate further complexity in carbon storage between habitat types and suggest that adherence to IPCC guidelines likely leads to underestimations in TECS in Belize and globally. 12 Morrisette et al. 2023. 13 Kauffman et al. 2020. BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 27 SEAGRASS BEDS TABLE 4. SEAGRASS DATA FOR BELIZE. National area (2022)a 229,146 ha Units: C -carbon, Mg- Tropical West Atlantic Seagrass Carbon Stock b megagrams, ha -hectares. -1 • Mean Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) 150.9 MgC ha-1 ± 26.3 Sources: a CZMAI 2014; b • Mean Biomass 0.84 MgC ha-1 ±0.17 Fourqurean et al. 2012. As of 2022, seagrass beds in Belize were estimated to cover 229,146 ha in coastal areas with depths ranging from 1 to 13 meters.14 In support of Belize’s National Marine Habitat Map for 2021, the Coastal Zone Management Authority & Institute (CZMAI) mapped seagrass extent and density across Belize. Seagrass was found to be prevalent at key sites such as the Turneffe Islands Atoll, Glover’s Reef Atoll, Lighthouse Reef Atoll, Ambergis Caye, Punta Gorda, and Placencia. The Global Seagrass Monitoring Network (SeagrassNet)15 manages long- term data collection on seagrass extent and ecosystem health at 21 sites across Belize – the CHAPTER majority of which are located in Marine Protected Areas.16 Since monitoring began in 2003, SeagrassNet has observed relatively persistent seagrass beds along the Belizean coastline.17 Data collection at SeagrassNet sites is carried out four times a year, and is managed by a suite I of NGOs, the University of Belize’s Environmental Research Institute (UBERI), and the Belize II Department of Fisheries. 1 2 Small-scale research initiatives, focusing on islands or specific marine reserves, shed light on 3 seagrass dynamics and monitoring efforts. Annual health surveys of seagrass at Turneffe Atoll 4 were conducted between 2010 and 2014,18 while an assessment of seagrass and mangrove cover for Port Honduras Marine Reserve was carried out in 2013.19 Since May of 2023, efforts III have been underway through the Seagrass Mapping to Assess Natural Stocks of Blue Carbon A (SEAMANS Carbon) Project20 to develop an integrated mapping and monitoring approach for assessing Belize’s seagrass Blue Carbon stocks. Funded by Our Shared Ocean (Irish Marine Institute and Department of Foreign Affairs), the project boasts collaborations with the University of Belize, University College Cork, and University of the Azores. 14 WWF 2022. 15 SeagrassNet. 16 CZMAI 2014. 17 WWF 2022. 18 University of Belize 2011. 19 Cherrington 2013. 20 https://oursharedocean.ie/projects/seagrass-mapping-to-assess-natural-stocks-of-blue-carbon-seamans-carbon/ BELIZE: 28 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) Currently, national estimates of seagrass carbon stock for Belize rely primarily on a global study conducted in 2012 which compiled data from 946 seagrass meadows worldwide, including those in the Tropical West Atlantic.21 In this region, seagrass biomass carbon stock was estimated at 0.84 megagrams of carbon (Mg C ha-1), with soil organic carbon (SOC) for the top 1 meter of soil amounting to 150.9 Mg C ha-1. These figures are lower than the global averages of 2.51 Mg C ha-1 for biomass and 194.2 Mg C ha-1 for SOC for the top 1 meter of soil22 and the values from the Los Petenes Biosfera Reserve in Yucatan, Mexico, where seagrass biomass carbon stock was estimated at 3.1 ± 1.7 Mg C ha-1 and SOC for the top 1 meter of soil at 463 ± 267 Mg C ha.-1 23 Although SeagrassNet carried out annual monitoring, its efforts did not include analysis of carbon stock. Further research is essential to accurately assess Belize’s seagrass carbon stocks, as current regional data may over or underestimate the true values. SALT MARSHES Comprehensive national-level mapping of salt marshes is lacking in Belize; overall, this ecosystem has received limited attention there. Although the presence of salt marshes has been confirmed, global datasets such as UNEP-WCMC’s Global Distribution of Salt Marshes lack information on their spatial extent and temporal trends. CHAPTER 1.1.2 DRIVERS OF DEGRADATION I The greatest pressures facing Belize’s marine ecosystems are human-driven and include tourism, nutrient pollution, marine transport, dredging, and invasive species.24 Environmental II pressures, which so far have been less harmful than human-driven ones, include sea level 1 rise, coastal erosion from storms and hurricanes, and proliferation of macroalgae such as 2 sargassum. Of much greater harm is tourism. It is the fastest-growing component of Belize’s 3 economy, accounting in the coastal zone for roughly 11 percent of national GDP in 2017.25 4 New development to support the industry is adding pressure along coastal areas and on cayes. III Hotspots for tourism development include San Pedro Town, Amergris Caye, Caye Caulker A and Placencia. Urban, industrial. In many places, tourist development has brought the clear- cutting and filling of mangrove and littoral forests. Installation of structures such as sills and breakwaters to protect developed land against coastal erosion has often increased erosion in adjacent habitats, resulting in seagrass beds being killed by sediment.26 21 Fourqurean et al. 2012. 22 Fourqurean et al. 2012 – Supplementary Information 23 Cota Lucero and Herrera-Silveira 2021 24 MCCAP 2020. 25 Ibid. 26 Ibid. BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 29 For approximately half of the human-driven pressures on Belize’s marine ecosystems, authorities lack sufficient data to properly quantify impacts and assess trends.27 The poorly measured pressures include marine pollution, dredging, marine transport, and sport fishing. In contrast, for tourism, invasive species, mariculture and other pressures there are adequate, high-quality data enabling accurate assessments of impacts and trends. Yet data on how these pressures directly, or indirectly, impact mangrove and seagrass ecosystems are limited – with the exception of tourism and lobster fisheries, the latter having minimal to no impact on these ecosystems.28 Impacts to individual BCEs are explored further below. MANGROVES Between 1980 and 2017, approximately 5.4 percent of national mangrove cover was lost as a result of deforestation, a low rate compared to other forest types.29 This loss translates to an average annual loss of just 0.15 percent and a total area loss of roughly 4,100 ha (Table 5). In recent decades, protected areas have suffered significantly fewer of those losses than unprotected areas. The Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System (BBRRS) is a UNESCO World Heritage Site that comprises seven protected areas: Bacalar Chico National Park and Marine Reserve, Blue Hole Natural Monument, Half Moon Caye Natural Monument, South Water Caye Marine Reserve, Glover’s Reef Marine Reserve, Laughing Bird Caye CHAPTER National Park and Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve.30 Between 1996 and 2017, the BBRRS (see Figure 3, Table 5) as a whole experienced minimal mangrove loss, totaling approximately 89 ha, with an average annual I loss rate of 4 ha. The losses were concentrated in the South Water Caye II Marine Reserve—nearly 98 percent occurred there between 2000-2010, 1 mostly during the 2004-2010 period.31 At this time, it is unclear what 2 specific drivers destroyed mangroves in this MPA. 3 4 III A PHOTO BY JULIANA CASTAÑO ISAZA 27 Ibid. 28 Ibid. 29 Cherrington et al. 2020. 30 UNESCO 2009. 31 Cherrington et al. 2020. BELIZE: 30 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) FIGURE 3. LOCATIONS OF MANGROVE LOSSES BETWEEN 1996 AND 2017, AND LOCATION OF MANGROVE ZONES AND BBRRS SITES. CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A Mangrove clearing Cleared 2010-2017 Cleared 1996-2010 Mangrove ecosystems BBRRS WHS Mangrove zones International boundaries District boundaries 0 10 20 40 60 80 km 1:1,100,00 Source: Cherrington et al. 2020. BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 31 Outside the BBRRS, the average annual loss rate of mangroves between 1996 and 2017 was roughly 129 ha, resulting in a cumulative loss of 2,703 ha.32 Loss occurred in habitats on the mainland, as well as on offshore cayes. Hotspots were areas surrounding larger cities and settlements along Belize’s coast (Table 5). They included Ambergris Cayes (zone 2 in Figure 3), Drowned Cayes (zone 5), Caye Caulker (zone 3), Dangriga and Hopkings (zone 8), Harvest Caye (zone 9), and Turneffe Atoll (zone 6).33 During this period, one third of total mangrove losses occurred on the mainland and on cayes surrounding Belize City, while losses in Ambergris Cayes, Drowned Cayes, and Harvest Caye accounted for about three quarters of the total area of mangrove loss outside the BBRRS (Table 5). TABLE 5. ESTIMATES OF MANGROVE LOSS RATES ACROSS BELIZE, BROKEN OUT BY LOSSES WITHIN AND OUTSIDE THE BBRRS. INSIDE THE BBRRS OUTSIDE THE BBRRS ACROSS BELIZE PERIOD AREA (ha) ANNUAL AREA (ha) ANNUAL AREA (ha) ANNUAL LOSS RATE LOSS RATE LOSS RATE (ha/YR.) (ha/YR.) (ha/YR.) 1980-1996 6.5 0.43 1,282.6 83.62 1,289.1 84.05 CHAPTER 1996-2017 88.8 4.24 2,703.5 129.11 2,792.3 133.35 1980-2017 95.3 2.63 3,986.1 109.88 4,081.4 112.51 I Source: Cherrington et al. 2020. II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY REGINA SANCHEZ SASSO 32 Cherrington et al. 2020. 33 Ibid. BELIZE: 32 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) TABLE 6. MANGROVE COVER CHANGE BY ZONE EXCLUDING THE BBRRS. ZONE # ZONE NAME AREA LOSS (ha) % OF TOTAL LOSS 1 Corozal & northern Belize District 49 1.8% 2 Ambergris Caye 509 18.8% 3 Caye Caulker & Caye Chapel 248 9.2% 4 Far inland mangroves 0 0% 5 Belize City (and nearby cayes) 1,007 37.3% 6 Turneffe Atoll 93 3.4% 7 Lighthouse Reef Atoll 0 0% 8 Dangriga (and nearby cayes) 259 9.6% 9 Placencia Peninsula (and nearby cayes) 467 17.3% 10 Pelican Cayes range 65 2.4% 11 Glover’s Reef 0 0% 12 Punta Ycacos & Port Honduras 0 0% CHAPTER 13 Sarstoon-Temash 7 0.2% I 14 Sapodilla Cayes 0 0% II Total 2,703 100% 1 2 Source: Modified from Cherrington et al. 2020. 3 4 III Coastal development for tourism has been identified as the primary cause of mangrove degradation A in Belize, accounting for the loss of approximately 2 percent of the national mangrove cover between 1980 and 2010.34 Many hotspots for mangrove loss, such as Caye Caulker, Ambergris Caye, and Placencia (Figure 3, Table 6), overlap with areas experiencing intense coastal development to support the tourism industry.35 Direct impacts include clearing of mangrove areas for the development of hotels, resorts, marinas, and ports. Indirect impacts include increased sedimentation and pollution from tourism activities, along with boat traffic and dredging, which can raise water turbidity, damaging mangrove roots.36 Despite its designation as a Marine Reserve within the BBRRS, South Water Caye has suffered significant mangrove 34 Cherrington et al. 2010, 2015, MCCAP 2020. 35 MCCAP 2020. 36 Cherrington et al. 2015. BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 33 losses due to land clearing for development. Legal restrictions on leasing government-owned land have been circumvented, with many cayes leased to foreign developers since 1996. Before the reserve’s establishment in 1996, the rate of mangrove loss was 0.43 ha per year. But it surged to 4.24 ha per year between 1996 and 2017.37 Mangroves in Belize also face pressures from urban expansion, agriculture, and fishing. Mangrove areas have been cleared to make way for housing developments, industrial and commercial facilities, waste disposal sites, and open water areas. This has led to either complete clearance or the fragmentation of mangrove ecosystems that leaves some patches intact.38 Hurricanes are another important natural driver of degradation, impacting Belize’s mainland, surrounding islands, and cayes. Hurricane Hattie (1961) passed directly over the Turneffe Islands and portions of the Belize Barrier Reef, causing substantial damage. Previously surveyed sites that were examined shortly after the storm revealed extensive harm to mangroves—mortality and defoliation, mechanical damage such as stem breakage and felling, and sediment erosion.39 Turneffe’s mangroves can expand laterally due to the island’s shallow waters, but excessive sedimentation can lead to high mortality if burial depths exceed the height of the trees’ pneumatophores.40 Damage from Hattie was most severe on the eastern sides of islands and on cayes where human settlements had already increased mangroves’ vulnerability. Many of the hardest-hit areas had not recovered by the next survey in 1965, indicating that the storm had directly raised mortality.41 CHAPTER Mangroves groves can recover from hurricane damage in the long term, but research on that process remains limited. Despite the immediate devastation, cayes demonstrated a high capacity I for recovery over the long term. Cayes that shifted or reformed due to Hurricane Hattie were II observed to revegetate over the following decades, driven by sediment accretion from adjacent 1 coral reefs and lateral colonization by mangroves and other vegetation.42 However, formal study 2 of both short- and long-term hurricane impacts on mangroves and other BCEs in Belize remains 3 limited. In one of the few studies conducted on mangrove damage, by Cherrington et al. (2020), 4 researchers assessed the extent and management of mangrove ecosystems in Belize, speaking with members of Belize’s Mangrove Conservation Network. The researchers identified drivers of III mangrove dieback and erosion, noting that while hurricanes caused isolated instances of these A effects, the damage typically covered less than a hectare and was difficult to detect via satellite imagery. More significantly, anthropogenic disturbances were identified as a major driver of mangrove loss in Belize (Cherrington et al., 2020). While findings from Turneffe Atoll can be extrapolated to the Belizean mainland, focused research on hurricane impacts in human- altered coastal regions would yield sharper conclusions. Increasing data capacity on long-term 37 Macintyre et al. 2009. 38 Cherrington et al. 2010. 39 Woodroffe 2018, Stoddart 1962. 40 Chi 2012. 41 Woodroffe 2018. 42 Chi 2012, Cherrington et al. 2020. BELIZE: 34 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) effects of hurricanes, particularly on the mainland, would enhance understanding and inform better management strategies. The latest State of the Belize Coastal Zone Report 2014-2018 identifies specific drivers contributing to the degradation of mangroves, in contrast to the Cherrington study. But the new report does not estimate the area lost due to each driver. In the case of the South Water Caye MPA, information on coastal development as a driver of degradation is sourced from a 2009 report. Due to the lack of more recent data, it remains unclear whether gaps in legal protections and legislation have been addressed or if other marine reserves could be similarly threatened by increased coastal development. Devising specific area estimates is crucial for tracking changes over time and enhancing our grasp of what drives degradation. This knowledge would enable more effective conservation and management strategies for mangroves. SEAGRASS BEDS Since monitoring began in 2003, SeagrassNet has tracked trends in seagrass extent in monitoring sites across Belize. While many sites have retained relatively stable seagrass cover, Placencia and Punta Gorda have suffered significant declines. In 2010, seagrass extent in Placencia was measured at just 30 percent of its 2003 figure, while Punta Gorda experienced steady declines overall, with coverage at one site dropping CHAPTER from 40 percent to 10 percent between 2010 and 2014 (Table 7). Nutrient pollution caused most of that decline. At the same time, destruction I of adjacent mangrove habitat by increased coastal development heightened the damage by allowing greater sedimentation and runoff II to reach seagrass beds.43 One of the six seagrass species found in 1 Belize, Halophila baillonii, is considered vulnerable by the International 2 Union for Conservation of Nature.44 Found only in the Caribbean, the 3 largest known population of H. baillonii is in Palcencia Lagoon, a region 4 currently experiencing significant declines in seagrass coverage.45 III A 43 CZMAI 2014. 44 Short et al. 2010. 45 CZMAI 2014. BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 35 TABLE 7. SEAGRASSNET SITES ACROSS BELIZE WITH MONITORING PERIODS AND TRENDS IN SEAGRASS COVER. LOCATION/SITE START OF ACTIVE SITE TREND MONITORING Bacalar Chico, Ambergris Caye/MR 2010 no-take zone R Bacalar Chico, Ambergris Caye/MR 2010 public use zone I Ambergris Caye/Hol Chan MR R 2010 Stable seagrass cover - 45% Ambergris Caye/San Pedro Town I 2010 Stable seagrass cover - 65% Caye Caulker/Marine Reserve R 2010 Caye Caulker/Village I 2010 Corozal/Corozal Bay 2007 Lighthouse Reef Atoll/Blue Hole R 2006 CHAPTER Lighthouse Reef Atoll/Half Moon Caye I 2006 I Turneffe Islands Atoll/Calabash Caye R 2005 Variable pattern but no trend of loss, cover ranging from ~30 - 75% II 1 Turneffe Islands Atoll/Blackbird Caye I 2005 Variable pattern but no trend of loss, 2 cover ranging from ~50 - 85% 3 Glover's Reef Atoll/Middle Caye 2003 4 III Placencia/Bugle Caye R 2003 Stable seagrass cover, cover ranging from ~40 - 45% A Placencia/Village I 2003 Dramatic decline between 2004 - 2005; stable seagrass cover of ~75% 2005- 2008; worrisome decline to ~30% in October 2010 Placencia/Laughing Bird Caye 2011 Placencia/Gladden Spit & Silk Cayes 2011 Placencia/Sapodilla Cayes 2011 BELIZE: 36 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) LOCATION/SITE START OF ACTIVE SITE TREND MONITORING Punta Gorda/East Snake Caye R 2007 Since October 2010 decline from ~40% to ~10% Punta Gorda/Joe Taylor Creek I 2005 Steady decline in seagrass cover since 2008; monitoring suspended due to poor visibility Punta Gorda/Bird Caye I 2011 MR = Marine reserve, R = Reference site, I = Impacted site. Sites without a note on trend: monitoring in progress but insufficient data to make trend statements. At Glover's Reef Atoll and Corozal, monitoring expected to re-start in 2012-13. Source: Short and Chi in the State of Belize Coastal Zone Report, 2014. Though seagrasses face pressure from a wide array of environmental changes, human activities are the primary driver behind their degradation in Belize. These activities include coastal development, tourism anchoring and boating, private land development, fishing, pollution from agricultural and urban runoff, sedimentation from deforestation and mangrove clearing, aquaculture, dredging, and lack of regulations and enforcement.46 Land-based pollution that CHAPTER originates in Belize and neighboring countries, then flows to the coast in rivers and streams, can badly degrade marine water quality. This pollution includes pesticides and chemicals from I banana plantations and sugar production, as well as untreated black and gray water from urban areas. It introduces excessive nutrients that fuel algal blooms and increase sedimentation, II which reduces the sunlight that reaches seagrass beds. Tourism and fishing-related impacts, 1 such as anchoring and boating, can kick up sediment into the water column, or physically 2 damage seagrass beds with nets, trawls, and boat props. Together these effects disrupt the 3 delicate balance of water quality and sunlight that seagrasses require to keep healthy.47 Given 4 the myriad ways that nutrient loading and pollution undermine seagrass beds, increased III research into upstream water quality and sustainable agricultural management to limit nutrient A runoff is essential. Fostering partnerships between land managers, owners, and the private sector could go a long way toward mitigating this problem. Environmental stressors such as invasive species and climate change impacts such as coastal erosion and sea level rise further endanger seagrass habitats.48 As sea levels rise due to climate change, seagrasses face inundation by deeper waters, threatening their survival unless they can migrate to shallower areas where light penetrates sufficiently to support their growth.49 46 Grimm et al. 2023. 47 Short et al. 2010, CZMAI 2014. 48 Grimm et al. 2023. 49 Short et al. 2010. BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 37 But coastal erosion as a result of increased storms and rising water levels can reduce the area of seabed suitable for seagrass migration, as well as causing sedimentation and reduced sunlight. Several species of the macroalgae known as Sargassum have been expanding in geographic presence in the greater Carribean region since 2011. Thriving in shallow areas along Belize’s coastline, they can shade out seagrass beds and harm water quality. Depending on the length and extent of their blooms, this can result in seagrass die-offs, limiting the valulable ecosystem services they provide.50 A study of Turtlegrass, a species of seagrass found in South Water Caye Marine Reserve, concluded that approximately 2 percent of the 2,352 ha of seagrass identified in the reserve in 2001 had disappeared by 2004, with parts of the reserve down by as much as 40 percent.51 While no drivers were identified, this loss underscores the pressures that seagrasses face even in protected areas. The lack of historical records of seagrass extent prior to 2000 has prevented a comprehensive understanding of drivers of degradation and temporal changes in seagrass dynamics. As tourism and urbanization expand year after year, seagrass beds face escalating pressures, highlighting the need for a thorough understanding of these dynamics. Grimm’s 2023 study focused on developing a management framework for seagrass based on insights from Belizean marine resource managers. While in interviews the managers were informative about the drivers of degradation, the study did not quantify the extent of seagrass affected (in hectares) by these drivers. In contrast, Gaston (2009) concentrated on a single seagrass species within a marine CHAPTER reserve, primarily assessing the extent of its area rather than the drivers of its degradation. Looking ahead, it will be crucial to conduct comprehensive assessments of the known drivers of degradation and quantify their impacts on seagrass areas across Belize, both within and I outside of protected areas. This work will provide Belize with valuable insights to guide II management strategies.52 1 2 1.1.3 SOCIOECONOMIC VALUATION 3 4 The socioeconomic valuation of Blue Carbon ecosystems in Belize highlights the connections III between ecosystem services and economic gains. The Coastal Capital Project53 – a joint initiative A led by the World Resources Institute (WRI) in collaboration with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) – assessed the economic contribution of key ecosystem services nationally and within individual Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) of Belize.54 Services included in the assessment, selected for their significance to economic stability and growth, included shoreline protection, fisheries yield, and maritime tourism revenue. Due to the interconnected nature of mangroves 50 MCCAP 2020, Gaston et al. 2009. 51 Gaston et al. 2009. 52 MCCAP 2020, Short et al. 2010, Grimm et al. 2023. 53 1811WRI_2008_economic_contribution_belize.pdf (un.org) 54 Cooper et al. 2008. BELIZE: 38 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) and coral reefs, the study assessed their collective contribution to selected ecosystem services rather than evaluating them individually. However, the study did provide estimates of individual contributions for each ecosystem by disaggregating values into portions that rely exclusively on mangroves, coral reefs, or both. Table 8 below shows resulting estimates for the average annual contribution of these services on the economy of Belize in 2007. TABLE 8. VALUE OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN BELIZE. ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ANNUAL VALUE (US$) Collective Contribution - Coral Reef & Mangrove Tourism 150-196 million Fisheries 14-16 million Shoreline Protection (avoided damages) 231-347 million Total 395-559 million Individual Contribution - Mangroves Tourism 60-78 million CHAPTER Fisheries 3-4 million I Shoreline Protection (avoided damages) 111-167 million II Total 174-249 million 1 2 Belize GDP in 2007 as reference 1.3 billion 3 Source: Cooper, Burke, and Bood. 2008. 4 III A BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 39 Annually, mangroves provided an estimated US$174 – US$249 million from their combined ecosystem services across Belize.55 Mangrove-associated tourism in Belize generates an estimated US$60–$78 million annually. Of this, some US$15–$19 million comes from activities such as manatee tours and sport fishing, while the remaining US$45–$59 million is from supporting services, including nursery habitats. Mangroves as nursery habitats for species that are locally and commercially fished in Belize contribute US$3-4 million per year. Fishing is not only culturally important but is a livelihood for many Belizeans living in coastal communities. Mangroves also play a crucial role in coastal protection by acting as natural barriers against wind, storm surges, and erosion. These services combined are estimated to save roughly US$111-US$167 million per year in avoided damages. The mangrove protection and restoration strategies laid out in Belize’s NDC are poised to give significant help to economically valuable ecosystem services. Services including shoreline protection, tourism, and fisheries can function as co-benefits to the implementation of Blue Carbon strategies and nature-based solutions such as protection and restoration. If the protection strategy of 12,000 ha is fully implemented by 2030, estimates show it would safeguard 136,000 kg. of spiny lobster catch worth approximately US$1.2 million annually, CHAPTER support tourism by roughly 3,000 visitors to mangrove destinations (worth approximately US$397,000 in expenditures annually), and decrease the number of I people most at risk from coastal hazards by over a II third. In turn, if the restoration strategy of 4,000 ha 1 is fully implemented by 2030, it would increase the 2 spiny lobster catch by 273,000 kg. annually, draw an 3 additional 11,000 visitors, and further reduce the 4 number of people at risk from coastal hazards.56 III A 2011 economic assessment suggests Turneffe Atoll A offers substantial value in shoreline protection. Among the findings: over a 25-year period, Turneffe Atoll provided an annualized value of US$38 million in storm protection and prevented damages to mainland Belize (see Table 9 below). Notably, US$16 million of this value was attributed to mangroves safeguarding the shoreline.57 55 Ibid. 56 Arkema et al. 2023. PHOTO BY JULIANA CASTAÑO ISAZA 57 Turneffe Atoll Trust 2021. BELIZE: 40 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) TABLE 9. ANNUAL VALUE OF TURNEFFE ATOLL SHORELINE PROTECTION SERVICES (US$) TOTAL TURNEFFE % TURNEFFE VALUE / ACRE TOTAL VALUE ECOSYSTEM ACREAGE ACREAGE Coral Reef 116,136 17,072 14.7% $1,292 $22,057,024 Mangrove 237,094 27,740 11.7% $587 $16,255,640 Combined Total $38,312,664 Source: Turneffe Atoll Trust 2021. Belize is a global leader in leveraging natural capital for safeguarding people and ecosystems, yet further assessments are crucial to understanding ecosystems and associated services that are often overlooked.58 In traditional economic assessments, emphasis has been on mangrove and coral reef habitats, as well as ecosystem services directly supporting tourism, fisheries, and shoreline protection. However, services such as nutrient cycling, support for adjacent ecosystems, cultural value, and water quality improvement were often neglected, even though they have indirect impacts on tourism and fisheries. For instance, industries such as sportfishing and diving, which are vital to Belize’s tourism sector, heavily rely on good health among the nation’s mangroves and coral reefs. Declines in health leading to poor water quality CHAPTER will hamper the economic contributions of these industries. Thus, conducting comprehensive assessments that go beyond traditional economic analyses to include indirect benefits such I as water quality improvement and nutrient cycling will enhance understanding of Belize’s ecosystem benefits and aid in anticipating changes amidst degradation. More research on II seagrass and mangroves is crucial if we are to fully grasp their economic value and ensure 1 the long-term sustainability of Belize’s natural capital. 2 3 4 1.1.4 EXPLORING RESTORATION OPPORTUNITIES IN BELIZE III A Based on availability of data and ongoing policy efforts, mangrove ecosystems present the most robust opportunities for restoration in Belize. This section explores various scenarios for mangrove restoration. Looking forward, as data on seagrass beds in Belize continue to develop, the potential for multi- habitat restoration will grow. Notably, about 92 percent of mangroves lost between 1996 and 2017 (more than 2,500 ha) were located within 2.5 km of seagrass beds and coral reefs.59 The ecological connectivity, along with shared drivers of degradation, between mangroves and seagrass ecosystems suggests that actions focused on both ecosytems could yield greater benefits. 58 NatCap Approach in Action: Belize | The Natural Capital Project (stanford.edu) 59 Cherrington et al. 2020. BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 41 To arrive at Belize’s ambitious updated NDC commitments for mangrove restoration—4,000 ha by 2030--researchers quantified carbon storage and ecosystem co-benefits, including coastal risk reduction, nursery habitats for lobsters, and tourism benefits, and identified priority locations for the restoration.60 The study informed the 4,000 ha figure for restoration and a mangrove protection target of 12,000 ha by 2030. The highest priority areas for restoration were identified around cities including Belize City, San Pedro, Caye Caulker, Dangriga, and Hopkins (Figures 4 and 5). These areas contain degraded mangroves but show significant potential through restoration to reduce coastal risk and support tourism and key nursery habitats for lobsters. The study did not address the feasibility of implementing these restoration efforts across all damaged mangroves in Belize. FIGURE 4. PRIORITY LOCATIONS FOR INVESTING IN MANGROVE RESTORATION. MANGROVE RESTORATION Priority Lowest (<50%) Communities Intermediate (≈50-99%) = 1,000 ha Highest (>99%) CHAPTER D E F I II 1 2 3 4 III A 5,000 10,000 25,000 Target area (ha) Note: Map (D) 5,000 hectares, (E) 10,000 hectares, (F) 25,000 hectares. Source: Arkema et al. 2023. 60 Arkema et al. 2023. See also Figures 4 and 5. BELIZE: 42 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) FIGURE 5. PRIORITY LOCATIONS FOR MANGROVE RESTORATION, ALONG WITH CO-BENEFITS OF SELECTED BLUE CARBON TARGETS.61 E F Priority Change in coastal risk reduction ha-1 Lowest (<50%) 0 Intermediate (≈50-99%) >0-0.25 Highest (>99%) 0.25-0.5 Communities 0.5-1 = 1,000 ha G H CHAPTER Change in lobster catch Change in visitors yr-1 ha-1 (pounds) yr-1 ha-1 0 <0.01 I 1-10 0.01-0.1 II 10-100 0.1-1 1 100-1,000 >1 2 >1,000 3 4 III A Note: Map (E) priority locations for investing in the NDC target of 4,000 ha of mangrove restoration with corresponding changes per hectare of mangrove restored in coastal risk reduction (F), lobster fishery (G), and tourism benefits (H). Source: Arkema et al. 2023. 61 Fig. 3: Priority locations and co-benefits of selected Blue Carbon targets. | Nature Ecology & Evolution BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 43 However, the actual area suitable for mangrove restoration may be smaller. The Global Mangrove Watch (GMW) Restoration Potential Layer for Belize estimates a restorable area of only 2,445 ha – just under 5 percent of the total mangrove area as of 2020. GMW arrived at this conclusion by identifying locations where restoration efforts could achieve a success rate of 60-70 percent. Success was predicted by a variety of factors known to facilitate restoration, including previous mangrove regeneration, elevation, and hydrology. The layer was developed to guide decision makers towards restoration options, but GMW makes clear that local knowledge and data are critical in refining true restoration capacity.   Experts currently conducting mangrove research in Belize suggest that approximately 1,000 ha is a more realistic estimate of the country’s restorable mangrove area. Their estimate includes several critical considerations: CONSIDERATION 1 CONSIDERATION 2 Annual monitoring provides key data to Drivers of degradation can lead to land use adequately inform restoration. conditions that limit the economic viability of restoration. Leveraging annual monitoring data helps establish CHAPTER a clear and defined mangrove baseline and For example, clearing mangroves for coastal determine a value for a country-specific mangrove development permanently alters the land’s use, growth rate and a carbon accumulation rate for rendering restoration unfeasible. Mangrove I biomass and SOC. Understanding Belize’s specific loss from erosion – a prevalent form of natural II mangrove growth rate is crucial for accurately degradation in southern Belize – poses significant 1 assessing carbon stocks, as local conditions economic challenges for restoration. At best, 2 significantly influence growth compared to this erosion increases the cost of restoration by generalized rates. necessitating the backfilling of lost land. At worst, 3 it renders restoration impossible due to total loss 4 of habitat. Before proceeding with restoration, it is III CONSIDERATION 3 always necessary to balance the potential benefits with the associated costs. A Determining a minimum restorable area will require considering multiple variables. These include economic viability, land tenure, land use, and drivers of degradation. Understanding these variables will assist in locating viable areas for restoration work. BELIZE: 44 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) CONSIDERATION 4 CONSIDERATION 5 Size and aggregation of restorable area Multi-habitat restoration projects may give can limit the viability of projects for the Belize greater restoration potential. voluntary carbon market. Mangroves and seagrass ecosystems share Current mangrove restoration projects in ecosystem services and function together to boost Belize may be too small individually to attract carbon sequestration capacity. For that reason, interest from the carbon market. Belize could combining mangrove and seagrass restoration can enhance the appeal by combining smaller enhance ecosystem services in such outcomes as initiatives into larger, more comprehensive ones. improved water quality, shoreline stabilization, and This consolidation could be carried out nationally, habitat provision for diverse marine species. focusing on the northern part of the country, or regionally, in collaboration with neighboring Central American countries. CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY JULIANA CASTAÑO ISAZA Belize has a variety of restoration targets that it can explore – each with its own benefits from a carbon market perspective. Each target presents an opportunity to assess different restorable areas in Belize and evaluate their potential for carbon sequestration and economic benefits. Further information on restoration as a generator of carbon credits is provided in the “Belize Carbon Market Infrastructure Needs Assessment,” prepared for the World Bank. BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 45 FIGURE 6. VARIOUS MANGROVE RESTORATION SCENARIOS PAIRED WITH ESTIMATES OF REMOVAL AND STORAGE (CO2), AND POTENTIAL ECONOMIC GAINS IF THE PROJECT GOES TO THE VOLUNTARY CARBON MARKET. EXPLORING RESTORATION SCENARIOS RESTORE 4,000 ha The restoration of 4,000 ha of mangroves by 2030 is a nod Current NDC Goal Removal and storage of 1.7 million tons of CO2 to the NDC goal for mangrove protection. These scenarios, equivalence (tCO2e) over 30 years based on the carbon accumulation rates presented in Potential economic gains from a successful Figure 6, assume restoration is carried out over the course of restoration project: six years (1/6 of the area restored each year) and concludes POTENTIAL VALUE by 2030. The calculations assume the accumulation of POST RESTORATION (MILLION USD) carbon begins after the first year of planting, and that CARBON CREDIT PRICE YEAR YEAR YEAR trees have not yet reached full stature after 30 years. The (USD/tCO2e) 10 20 30 estimates for potential value after restoration only account 10 4.1 10.4 16.6 for the carbon accumulated as a direct result of restoration 20 8.2 20.7 33.3 actions, as restoration projects can only generate carbon credits for CO2 removals, not existing carbon stock. 30 12.2 31.1 49.9 CHAPTER I RESTORE 2,445 ha II GMW Estimated Restorable Area 1 Removal and storage of 1 million tons of CO2 2 equivalence (tCO2e) over 30 years RESTORE 1,000 ha Potential economic gains from a successful 3 Removal and storage of 0.4 million tons of CO2 restoration project: 4 equivalence (tCO2e) over 30 years POTENTIAL VALUE III Potential economic gains from a successful POST RESTORATION restoration project: (MILLION USD) A POTENTIAL VALUE CARBON CREDIT PRICE YEAR YEAR YEAR POST RESTORATION (USD/tCO2e) 10 20 30 (MILLION USD) 10 2.5 6.3 10.2 CARBON CREDIT PRICE YEAR YEAR YEAR (USD/tCO2e) 10 20 30 20 5 12.7 20.3 10 1 2.6 4.2 30 7.5 19 30.5 20 2 5.2 8.3 30 3 7.8 12.5 Source: Silvestrum Climate Associates (2024) BELIZE: 46 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) 1.1.5 DATA CAPACITY Through initiatives supported by reputable NGOs and research institutes, Belize has established robust data capabilities for mangrove ecosystems. Belize’s Forestry Department and the University of Belize’s Environmental Research Institute (UBERI) are the primary entities responsible for mangrove data collection. UBERI was founded in 2010 to bridge the country’s gap in local capacity for research and monitoring. Between 2010 and 2014, it carried out annual ecosystem health surveys of mangroves and seagrass beds at five long-term monitoring sites across Turneffe Atoll Marine Reserve.62 The surveys collected data on mangrove basal area, height, density, and community composition. For seagrass, biomass was the only variable measured. While UBERI presents its annual surveys as long-term monitoring mechanisms, no data prior to 2014 is referenced in its resources or could be located. Data from a 2014-2017 study of mangrove biomass (above and below ground) at four sites in Turneffe Atoll informed both the 2020 National GHG Inventory and the 2020 FRL (see Section 4.2 for details). The 2014-2017 study was carried out specifically to inform the 2020 GHG Inventory and was a one-time effort. The Belize Forestry Department’s Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) Program collects comprehensive data on forests and other land use (FOLU) for Belize. This includes tracking emissions and removals arising from land use and land-use change (LULUC). Belize’s National Forest Monitoring System (NFMS)63 consists of two data-collection initiatives. The first is the CHAPTER National Forest Inventory (NFI), which handles annual ground-based assessments of forest and non-forest ecosystems – including mangroves – across Belize. Data collection occurs at I 64 permanent sampling sites,64 all established between 1992 and the present, and is synthesized into the Forest Monitoring Network Belize platform (FORMNET-B). The second initiative is II the Satellite Land Monitoring System (SLMS), which utilizes satellite imagery in tandem with 1 Collect Earth and Open Forest software to assess annual land use, land use change, and forest 2 cover dynamics over time. While the NFMS provides robust data on annual forest area and 3 change, mangrove data do not appear to be disaggregated from other forest classifications. 4 As such, the NFMS does not currently serve as an actionable source of mangrove activity data. III A Since its creation in 2018, the SLMS has produced annual data for the 2000-2018 period65 and has released a map of land use and land cover which will be updated annually.66 Data on mangrove forest biomass included in the NFMS is provided by UBERI. UBERI employs established regional methodologies at each of its five mangrove study plots in the Turneffe Atoll to measure mangrove biomass, ecosystem structure, and function. The resulting data are used to fulfill 62 Op. cit University of Belize. 63 Monitoring, Reporting and Verification - Forest Department of Belize. 64 https://forest.gov.bz/permanent-sample-plots/ 65 Forest Department (2019). 66 https://forest.gov.bz/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/landuseMap.jpg BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 47 various national and international reporting commitments, including the national Greenhouse Gas Inventory, REDD+, and the development of the first Forest Reference Level (FRL) for Belize. Several international organizations and researchers have played an integral role in collection of data bout Belize’s BCEs. Work by an international research collaborative in 2021 led to the development of the first national SOC stock baseline for the country’s mangroves.67 (Morrissette et al., 2023). Calculation of this baseline was made possible by a research collaboration between the Pew Charitable Trusts, World Wildlife Fund, Belize Forestry Department, The Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC), Silvestrum Climate Associates (SCA), and UBERI, along with several other Belize agencies and NGOs. UBERI partners with SERC to monitor seagrass beds on a biennial basis as part of SeagrassNet, a worldwide ecological monitoring program.68 SERC is engaged with multiple Belizean institutions (including CZMAI, MPAs, and the Climate Change Office), non-profits, and NGOs, collaborating on the collection and dissemination of mangrove- related data to inform national policies. These collaborations have consisted primarily of training in-country teams on best practices and methods for data collection, accompanied by meetings and working groups on how to leverage collected data. To date, data from SERC initiatives have informed the latest Forest Reference Level, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, and updated NDC commitments. Looking ahead, SERC aims to transition to a reduced role in data collection, empowering in-country teams to manage ongoing and future collection initiatives. CHAPTER Despite the wide range of data collection initiatives in Belize, a centralized data repository for BCEs has yet to be established. One of SERC’s objectives in Belize was to ensure that collected data were made widely available through the Smithsonian’s Coastal Carbon Atlas69 – an international I data repository for seagrass, salt marsh and mangrove ecosystems. The atlas is an integral tool II in ensuring that Belize maintains a presence regionally (in Central America) and internationally 1 on the Blue Carbon stage. Development of a national tool in Belize, modeled after the atlas, could 2 pave the way for a centralized repository. In 2018 the Forestry Department started development 3 of the National Forest Information System (NFIS),70 a virtual platform where data from both 4 initiatives of the NFMS are centralized and easily accessible for other government agencies, international organizations, and the public. The system’s development is a promising start III for improving data-sharing among groups that are carrying out mangrove research in Belize. A However, a repository for all BCEs would be a stronger tool, both for researchers and end users. 67 Morrissette et al. 2023. 68 https://www.seagrassnet.org/global-monitoring/ 69 https://serc.si.edu/coastalcarbon/data 70 https://redd.unfccc.int/media/4967_2_belize_national_forest_monitoring_system.pdf BELIZE: 48 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) 1.2 GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES (PILLAR 1-B) FIGURE 7. SUMMARY TABLE FOR PILLAR 1.2 BASED ON THE “INVESTMENT READINESS FRAMEWORK FOR GOVERNMENTS” OF THE WORLD BANK. DECISION TREE PATHWAY STATUS STATUS EXPLANATION Yes – the latest inventory was Are BCEs included in your M released in 2020. Mangrove country’s GHG inventory? biomass is included. Mangrove SOC and dead organic matter are not included. Mangrove biomass is included for 2014- 2017 only. There is no inclusion of seagrass or salt marsh ecosystem data. CHAPTER Does your country apply the No – Current GHG Inventory 2013 Wetlands Supplement M utilizes the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, (WS13)/2019 Refinement but integration of WS13 is planned. (R19)? I II 1 Yes – the first FRL was submitted 2 in 2020, but underwent revisions, resulting in the submission of a 3 Has your country submitted a Zero FRL in its place in 2024. The 4 Forest Reference Level (FRL) new FRL accounts for mangrove H or Forest Reference Emission biomass, dead organic matter, and III Levels (FREL)? SOC, along with improved activity A data. Belize has a REDD+ strategy for 2016-2018 which includes mangrove ecosystems. QUALITY L M H PROGRESS → → ACHIEVEMENTS MISSING LOW HIGH LIMITED ADVANCED BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 49 1.2.1 NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY In 2020, Belize submitted its fourth National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, showing that despite emission increases in most sectors, the country remained a net carbon sink.71 Belize’s inventory is a thorough record of greenhouse gas emissions and removals within the country, encompassing data from four main sectors: Energy; Industrial Processes and Product Use; Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use; and Waste. The inventory leveraged guidance set forth in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories72 for land use classifications, calculations for emissions and removals, as well as emissions factors. Estimates of mangrove biomass (above and below ground) are accounted for in the inventory, and data are disaggregated from other forest types within the Forest and Land Use sector. The current inventory does not account for mangrove soil organic carbon (SOC) or dead organic matter (DOC). Since mangrove ecosystems store in the soil the majority of the carbon that they sequester, excluding SOC data likely leads to a significant underestimation of mangrove ecosystems’ removals of atmospheric carbon. Consequently, estimates of net emissions for the AFOLU sector, where mangroves are included, are likely inflated to some extent, reflecting higher overall emissions than removals. Exclusion of these data within the inventory was due to a lack of nationally available data and the desire to only include data of the same caliber as the mangrove biomass dataset. CHAPTER Inventory developers are aware of the available IPCC default values for SOC and DOC and plan to address this exclusion through streamlined improvements to their existing data collection efforts for I mangroves. Data on mangrove above ground biomass was sourced from a UBERI study at four II tall/medium mature mangrove sites on Turneffe Atoll for the years 2014-2017. Below ground 1 biomass was estimated using the root-to-shoot ratio (R:S) as per IPCC Guidelines. Activity data 2 for all forest types were provided by the Forestry Department’s NFMS via the Satellite Land 3 Monitoring System for the time series 2000-2017. This system monitors the six main IPCC 2006 4 Land Use Categories, as well as country-specific sub-categories. Area remaining in the same category, as well as land conversion and land use changes, were monitored. Although mangroves III are assessed in the NFMS as a Tier 2 forest type in Belize, it is unclear whether activity data A available from the NFMS are disaggregated from other forest types. Estimates of mangrove carbon stocks published by Morrissette et al. (2023) serve as a robust source of SOC data for inclusion in future iterations of Belize’s GHG Inventory. Inventory developers should strengthen the inventory’s next iteration by including SOC values for mangroves. The updated FRL (see Section 4.2.2 below) leverages the Morrissette et al. data, along with estimates of dead organic matter for mangroves. Utilizing a similar step-wise 71 https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Fourth%20National%20GHG%20Inventory%20rev%20Aug42020.pdf 72 https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/ BELIZE: 50 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) approach would allow an update and improvement to the existing inventory. NFMS does not currently address SOC for any forest type. But if capacity were available to add SOC and DOC measurements at NFMS’s 19 permanent sampling plots in mangrove and non-forest areas, Belize would have robust accounts for emissions and removals from the Forest and Land Use sector. As seagrass research initiatives get underway and expand, data on seagrass biomass and SOC can be integrated into future iterations of the inventory. 1.2.2 REDD+ PROGRAM & FOREST REFERENCE LEVEL (FRL) Belize has implemented a Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) program which has successfully overseen submission of the country’s First FRL, First Biennial Update Report (BUR),73 and a Zero FRL in 2024. A national Forest Reference Level is a key element of a REDD+ strategy and serves as a benchmark for assessing a country’s REDD+ activities. The FRL – expressed in tons of CO2 equivalent per year – establishes a baseline of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation for a known reference period, against which future emissions and removals can be measured. In January 2020, Belize unveiled its inaugural FRL, followed by an update in August that year, both encompassing a reference period from 2001 to 2015. The 2020 FRL included data on mangrove biomass but not on SOC and dead organic matter. CHAPTER At the time, the FREL was developed to be consistent with the emissions, sources, and removals provided in the 2020 National GHG Inventory and BUR. As such, both the Inventory totals I and the emissions and removals within the 2020 FRL were based on the same data, methods, and assumptions. II 1 In 2024, Belize addressed comments about its 2020 FRL through development of a Zero FRL for 2 2021-2025. The FRL selected for this update has a value of zero, and thus is referred to as a 3 “Zero FRL.”74 This value signals a net balance of all forest-related emissions and removals, 4 and that baseline deforestation is low and resulting emissions are negligible. The latest iteration III of the FRL has several noteworthy enhancements. It now includes robust data on Belize’s A mangrove ecosystems – accounting for dead organic matter and SOC along with the previously included above and below ground biomass. A new land use and land use change collection initiative, which is capable of assessing multiple land use changes and disturbances – the CfRN Land Use Assessment – provides enhanced quantification of forest degradation dynamics. This FRL follows guidelines outlined in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, the 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines, and the 2013 Wetlands Supplement. Emissions factors for mangroves for above ground and below ground biomass, along with the carbon fraction and growth rates, were obtained from the 2013 Wetlands 73 2020_Belize First Biennial Update Report.pdf 74 FRL 2024. BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 51 Supplement75 (see also Table 3.5 WS13). Recent field data were used to refine previous emission and removal factors for several forest types, but not mangroves. Application of the Zero FRL could influence the future of results-based payments from mangrove conservation in Belize. Application of a zero value FRL means Belize will only focus on results- based payments for net removals and will not claim any generated REDD+ results should net emissions occur. Because the Zero FRL applies across forest habitats, including mangroves, the opportunity for generating carbon credits from mangrove conservation projects (i.e. projects that seek to reduce or halt deforestation thereby primarily reducing emissions, not yielding removals) is materially threatened (see box below for further information). FUTURE OUTLOOK: ZERO FRL & NDC IMPACTS ON MANGROVE CONSERVATION • In Belize, mangroves are considered a forest subclass and are thus integrated into the REDD+ Framework and the National Forest Reference Level. As a result, mangrove projects seeking the generation of carbon credits will need to consider REDD+ guidelines such as the Zero FRL. • Belize’s NDC76 states that the country’s goal for mangrove protection is a non-CO2e (carbon dioxide equivalent) commitment, CHAPTER reflecting a desire to engage in mangrove protection for reasons other than emission reductions and carbon crediting. This decision is based on a low rate of mangrove loss between 2001 and 2020. I WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE FUTURE OF MANGROVE II CONSERVATION? The Zero FRL’s focus on net removals of CO2, paired with the NDCs 1 non-CO2e commitment for mangrove protection, suggests that the 2 future of results-based payments surrounding Belize’s mangroves will 3 prioritize restoration over conservation. This strategy relies on the condition that mangrove deforestation 4 comes to an irreversible halt, without additional efforts. That may III prove improbable, however, in the face of continuous coastal A development of ports and resorts driven by tourism, urban expansion, agriculture, and fishing. Development in support of tourism particularly threatens the carbon-rich mangrove ecosystems on Belize’s coastal islands and cayes. Belize would do well to address future losses of mangroves and resulting emissions through carbon market interventions. A solution in line with the Zero Forest FRL would be to define subnational-level FRLs, with one such level being mangrove forests or offshore mangrove forests. See Section 3.4 for details. 76 https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-06/Belize%20 Updated%20NDC.pdf PHOTO BY JULIANA CASTAÑO ISAZA 75 Ibid. BELIZE: 52 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) 1.3 ANALYSIS OF PILLAR 1 ACHIEVEMENTS Notable collaborations between Belizean institutions and international organizations such as the Pew Charitable Trusts, the World Wildlife Fund, the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center (SERC), and Silvestrum Climate Associates (SCA) have created a robust enabling environment in Belize. These partnerships enhance local capacity and generate valuable data on Belize’s Blue Carbon Ecosystems. Improvements to Belize’s first Forest Reference Level (FRL) were recently introduced in the form of a Zero FRL for the period of 2021-2025. This updated Zero FRL accounts for mangroves as one of Belize’s Blue Carbon Ecosystems. Notably, mangrove biomass is now incorporated into the latest (fourth) iteration of the National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory (2020), with data being disaggregated from other forest types for improved accuracy. Recent assessments have confirmed the presence of seagrass and salt marsh ecosystems within Belize. Efforts are underway through the international SEAMANS Carbon CHAPTER Project77 to map and monitor seagrass carbon stocks. Launched in May 2023 with a three-year timeframe, this project aims to produce detailed spatial maps of seagrass distribution and I extent. The results will provide valuable data that can be combined with regional datasets or default values from the 2013 Wetlands Assessment to accurately assess carbon stocks in Belize’s II seagrass ecosystems. 1 2 3 PHOTO BY WORLD BANK 4 III A 77 https://oursharedocean.ie/projects/seagrass-mapping-to-assess-natural-stocks-of-blue-carbon-seamans-carbon/ BELIZE: DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 53 AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT This section identifies areas for improvement to enhance Belize’s Blue Carbon readiness. Where relevant, they are linked to specific recommendations provided in the final section of this report. • Strategies for long-term monitoring of • The lack of historical records of seagrass Blue Carbon Ecosystems within Belize extent prior to 2000 limits understanding are not nationally standardized, and in of drivers of degradation and temporal the case of salt marshes, do not exist at all changes in seagrass dynamics [Recommendation 1]. [Recommendation 2]. • Annual monitoring data for mangroves • National estimates of seagrass carbon included in the National Forest Monitoring stock in Belize rely on data from a global Program (NFM) are not disaggregated study using average values from the from other forest types – as a result, the Tropical West Atlantic, potentially leading NFMS does not serve as an actionable to significant over- or under-estimation. source of mangrove activity data. In addition, ongoing monitoring by SeagrassNet does not include carbon stock CHAPTER • Although the NFMS includes permanent measurements [Recommendation 2]. study plots on the Belizean mainland, none of these plots currently includes • Insufficient data on carbon stocks in I mangrove ecosystems. Instead, mangrove Belizean seagrass beds hinder their II data in the NFMS are collected exclusively inclusion in national inventories 1 from study plots on Turneffe Atoll, and carbon monetization strategies 2 inhibiting understanding of the health [Recommendation 2]. 3 of mainland mangrove ecosystems 4 [Recommendation 1]. • Belize has yet to foster strong partnerships between land managers, owners, and the III • Despite the wide range of data collection private sector, tie-ins that could mitigate A initiatives in Belize, a centralized excess nutrient loading and pollution on data repository for BCEs has yet to be seagrass beds. established [Recommendation 3]. • The current version of the National GHG • The national seagrass area (2022) was Inventory (2020) does not include data on derived from a one-time study, and mangrove SOC or dead organic matter and current annual surveys by SeagrassNet omits seagrass and salt marsh ecosystems only cover known sampling sites. This due to limited or no data availability leaves many seagrass areas unmapped [Recommendation 1]. [Recommendation 2]. BELIZE: 54 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT DATA AND ANALYTICS (PILLAR 1) • The current GHG inventory was developed • Belize conducts insufficient research on using guidance set forth in the 2006 IPCC how hurricanes impact its mangroves, Guidelines for National GHG Inventories salt marshes, and seagrasses, hindering and did not include updated data provided development of conservation strategies in the 2013 Wetlands Supplement and enhancement of ecosystem resilience. [Recommendation 1]. • Despite the confirmed presence of salt marshes, comprehensive national mapping of them has not been carried out [Recommendation 2]. CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY OCEANA BELIZE BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 55 2. POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS PILLAR 2 CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY OCEANA BELIZE BELIZE: 56 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) FIGURE 8. SUMMARY TABLE FOR PILLAR 2, BASED ON THE “INVESTMENT READINESS FRAMEWORK FOR GOVERNMENTS” OF THE WORLD BANK. DECISION TREE PATHWAY STATUS STATUS EXPLANATION GHG Accounting Are emissions and removals from BCE(s) included in H The 2021 NDC aims to remove your NDC? 381 thousand tCO2eq by 2030 through mangrove restoration. The NDC does not explain where the 381 thousand tCO2eg come from. Action-Based Targets Diverse targets include: Restoration of 4,000 ha and protection of 12,000 ha of CHAPTER mangroves by 2030. H Seagrass data and mapping must be updated. Implementation of I a seagrass management policy II and identification of a portfolio of priority seagrass areas for 1 protection. 2 REDD+ 3 The National REDD+ Strategy 4 H includes a strategic line to promote the reforestation of mangrove III areas. A The Strategy misses to include the area size of degraded mangroves where it is intended to do reforestation activities. The lack of clear objectives, does not allow to measure progress BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 57 Yes. An NDC Implementation Plan Summary Brief was published in Do you have an H 2022, with a tracking tool for the NDC implementation plan? country’s funding and activities under development. The tool misses to compare the activities’ performance with the progress achieved toward the NDC goals. It does not provide sources of information. *An updated tracking tool is under development. The Plan establishes the Does your plan incorporate authorities responsible for appropriate institutional/ H achieving the targets and points governance frameworks? out the activities that are missing funding support. QUALITY L M H PROGRESS → → ACHIEVEMENTS MISSING LOW HIGH LIMITED ADVANCED CHAPTER 2.1 NDC COMMITMENTS I II 1 2 In its 2021 updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), Belize puts an explicit focus on 3 strengthening the capacity of the nation’s mangrove and seagrass ecosystems to act as carbon 4 sinks. The country aims to restore 2,000 ha of mangroves by 2025 and 2,000 ha more by 2030. The measure is described as generating 381,000 tons of CO2e. Belize also seeks to expand III protection of mangroves by 6,000 ha by 2025 and 6,000 ha more by 2030, while stressing that A conservation is a “non-CO2 commitment” given the low rates of deforestation historically. In this regard, Belize’s Mangrove Alliance is developing a tool to identify areas where restoration activities could take place. The conservation target includes the establishment of new and the strengthening of existing public conservation measures to cover 100 percent of the publicly owned mangrove priority areas identified under the Forests (Protection of Mangroves) Regulations 2018. In addition, the NDC seeks to halt and reverse mangrove loss by 2030 through the enforcement of the Mangroves Regulations and through partnerships with local communities, landlords of privately owned mangroves, and bilateral and multilateral agencies. BELIZE: 58 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) To enhance seagrass ecosystems, Belize plans multiple actions. These include assessing the value of seagrass in climate regulation to guide development decisions and implementation of a comprehensive national seagrass management policy. This policy is under development by a working group integrating the Ministry of Blue Economy, the WWF, and the Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute (CZMAI). To support these efforts, the country is updating its national seagrass mapping under the leadership of the CZMAI. Finally, Belize aims to identify a portfolio of priority seagrass areas for protection. The NDC outlines strategies to enhance data collection and analysis of Blue Carbon ecosystems. One of these strategies is an in situ assessment of soil carbon stock in mangroves completed in 2022. This work was carried out by a group of international researchers, government officials, and NGOs, including the Smithsonian Institution, the Pew Charitable Trusts, and Silvestrum Climate Associates.78 Subsequently, relevant IPCC methodologies are to be applied to evaluate the feasibility of incorporating seagrass into a wetlands component. This will accompany a comprehensive assessment of carbon stocks based on mangroves in the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory and other relevant reports by 2025. Belize emphasized in its 2021 NDC the importance of exploring financing options to protect and restore its Blue Carbon ecosystems. This includes issuing Blue Carbon credits through carbon markets – voluntary and with the implementation of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement – and further exploring bilateral and multilateral funds, debt for nature swaps, private investment, CHAPTER bonds, and insurance products. Belize stands out for the diverse financial streams it has brought into its Blue Carbon ecosystems (see Section 3) and is preparing new strategies. A draft I Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Bill is under review to provide a framework for the country’s carbon market and its link with Article 6 (see Section 3.3). Moreover, a coastal and II marine Project Finance for Permanence (PFP) is being developed (see Section 3.2.2). 1 2 Lastly, Belize aims to encourage the stewardship of coastlands by local communities and 3 indigenous peoples. This stewardship is aimed at managing these landscapes sustainably, with 4 the goal of transforming them into net carbon sinks. III A Most of Belize’s NDC commitments regarding Blue Carbon are conditional on international support. That means that Belize requires (1) provision of technical expertise and development of capacity for the generation of quality carbon assets and carbon market design, and (2) financial support for purchase of emissions credits and the protection and restoration of mangroves and wetlands. 78 Morrissette et al. 2023. BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 59 2.2 NDC IMPLEMENTATION Since 2018, Belize has been collaborating with the NDC Partnership79 to enhance the quality and ambition of the country’s NDC,80 resulting in creation of an NDC Implementation Plan spanning from 2022 to 2030. The Plan is available for consultation on a platform developed on the Partnership’s website, which keeps track of the country’s priorities and support needed to translate them into actionable policies and programs. Within the oceans and coast sector, Belize’s NDC Implementation Plan emphasizes two priorities concerning Blue Carbon ecosystems: 1 2 Enhancing the country’s mangrove Advancing knowledge and management of ecosystems by upscaling protection and seagrass ecosystems. restoring mangroves, and CHAPTER I The Plan does not provide for scaling up mangrove protection and instead highlights projects II to strengthen understanding on mangrove ecosystems and conduct restoration activities with 1 the creation of the Belize Mangrove Alliance (BMA). The BMA has been established. In 2022 it 2 published a 2022-2027 Action Plan.81 Among its strategies, the alliance intends to assist the 3 Forest Department in developing a National Mangrove Restoration Plan linked to the National 4 Restoration Strategy, the National Land Use Plan, and the Marine Spatial Plan. III Moreover, with funding from the Belize Fund for a Sustainable Future, the Forest Department is A developing a project to improve mangrove monitoring and restoration activities while building public awareness of the importance of healthy mangroves and reserves. The project’s goals are to expand the national forest monitoring database and to more effectively manage mangrove reserves within the Belize Barrier Reef System. There is also an ongoing project named “Use of Nature-Based Solutions to Increase Resilience to Extreme Climate Events in the Atlantic Region of Central America,” which aims to thicken or replant 500 ha of mangroves and riparian forests. 79 NDC Partnership. About us 80 NDC Partnership (2024) Belize: NDC Implementation Plan 81 Belize Mangrove Alliance Action Plan BELIZE: 60 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) For seagrass ecosystems, the NDC Implementation Plan identifies four projects aimed at advancing the knowledge of seagrass ecosystem coverage and carbon stocks. They are (1) a project that CZMAI concluded with the United Kingdom’s National Oceanography Centre (NOC) to assess the Blue Carbon potential of seagrass in Belize by supporting development of an enhanced national seagrass map, (2) the Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Earth program,82 (3) the Smart Coasts project,83 funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI-Germany), and (4) a project titled “Fostering Protection for Coastal Ecosystems through the NDC Process (Phase 2),” to be implemented by WWF, PEW, and private sector interests. The Plan provides that a national seagrass management policy should be developed and adopted by the end of 2024. WWF is leading development of that policy. While successful in monitoring individual activities, the Plan lacks tracking of overall progress toward NDC commitments. This limitation could hinder Belizean stakeholders’ ability to assess overall effectiveness. Therefore, broadening the Plan to include NDC commitment progress would offer a more comprehensive overview of achievements. In partnership with ICAT, work is underway to develop a tool for tracking the country’s progress on its NDCs, which could include metrics for mangrove restoration and protection.84 2.3 CHAPTER LEGAL PROTECTION FOR BLUE CARBON ECOSYSTEMS I II Belize has developed a robust legal framework to preserve mangroves and seagrass ecosystems 1 through international agreements, laws, and policy initiatives. In addition to the Paris Agreement 2 and the country’s NDCs, Belize has signed complementary multilateral environmental 3 agreements reaffirming its pledge to enhance protection of Blue Carbon ecosystems. In 1994, 4 Belize ratified the Convention on Biological Diversity, underlining its dedication to fostering III sustainable development. As a signatory member, the country devised a five-year plan known as A the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan 2016-2020, with a specific aim of revising and strengthening mangrove legislation and regulation.85 This led to the revision of the Mangroves Regulations in 2018, which is now the current text. However, according to state and non-state actors, the regulations still need to be properly enforced (see Section 2.3.2). Moreover, Belize became a contracting party of the Ramsar Convention in 1998, which provides a framework for the conservation and wise use of wetlands and their resources. This commitment resulted 82 Artificial Intelligence for Earth 83 Smart Coasts 84 Initiative for Climate Action Transparency- Belize 85 Belize’s 2016- 2020 National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 61 in the protection of 23,592 ha of mangroves across two designated wetlands of international importance: Crooked Tree Wildlife Sanctuary and Sarstoon Temash National Park.86 On the national level, Belize has established a legal framework aimed at safeguarding Blue Carbon ecosystems. The Blue Bonds Loan Act of 2021 authorized the Belizean Government to enter into an agreement to create the Blue Bond (see Pillar 3). Even though the Fisheries Resource Act of 2020 does not explicitly refer to mangroves or seagrass, it uses an ecosystem approach establishing that in marine reserves flora and fauna will have special protection, that natural breeding, nursery grounds, and habitats of aquatic life will be protected, and penalties will be imposed for the destruction of any flora or fauna. The Forests (Protection of Mangroves) Regulations of 2018 created a specific framework to protect mangroves from clearance and alteration, unless approved through permits and authorizations (see Section 2.3.2). The Forests Act, last amended in 2017, defined mangroves as forests, meaning that the authority responsible for their protection is the Forest Department. The Protected Areas Conservation Trust (PACT) (Amendment) Act of 2017, created PACT, a financial entity that channels funding to protected areas. The National Protected Areas System Act of 201587 established a national system of protected areas to coordinate their management based on sustainable development principles. The Environmental Protection Act88 established the Department of Environment and included mangroves within the Belize Barrier Reef System, mandating fines for people who damage the trees. The Coastal Zone Management (CZM) Act of 199889 upgraded coastal zone management by establishing the Coastal Zone Management Authority and a Coastal Zone Management Institute. CHAPTER Belize continues to enhance its legal framework through new legislation, with three key bills under discussion. First, the Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Bill90 would reinforce I Blue Carbon ecosystems by including Blue Carbon credits in the country’s carbon market II (see Section 3). Second, the Protected Areas Conservation Trust (Amendment) Bill would 1 streamline the functions of PACT and harmonize that act with the National Protected Areas 2 Systems Act Bill, the third piece of legislation. It provides for establishment of the National 3 Biodiversity Office and coordinates management of the system of protected areas. In addition, 4 a seagrass policy is under development, and plans are in place to revise the Coastal Zone Management Act under the Blue Bond initiative. III A The country’s solid legal framework must be matched with effective enforcement. The Mangroves Regulations (2018) have been crucial in deterring the clearing of mangroves, but Belizean authorities acknowledge challenges in their proper enforcement. They have highlighted issues such as insufficient information sharing, which hinders a clear understanding of where authorities have permitted mangrove removal. There is a lack of clarity regarding responsibility 86 Ramsar. Annotated List of Wetlands of International Importance, Belize. 87 National Protected Areas System Act of 2015 88 Environmental Protection Act 89 Coastal Zone Management Act of 1998 90 Climate Change and Carbon Market Bill BELIZE: 62 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) for mangrove clearance if land is sold. In addition, the Department of Environment lacks sufficient staffing to follow up on all cases. 2.3.1 PROTECTED AREAS Among the more than 100 protected areas within the Belizean National Protected Areas System (NPAS), 14 are designated as Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), most of which contain mangroves. Of the MPAs, nine are under the management of the Fisheries Department of the Ministry for Blue Economy and Civil Aviation, while five fall under the jurisdiction of the Forest Department of the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment. See Table 10. Management of the MPAs occurs either directly through the relevant agency, or through co-management with an NGO, local community, or other organization. This system is outlined in Section 30 of Belize’s National Protected Areas System Act 2015. In cases of co-management, specific agreements with the relevant Minister must be established, delineating the management scope and terms. These agreements may also include provisions for “financial and other support to ensure effective administration and implementation of the co-management agreement.” Belize also has several private natural reserves, such as the Shipstern Nature Reserve, that contain significant mangrove forests. The Shipstern area is held in trust and managed by a Belizean NGO, the Corozal Sustainable Future Initiative. CHAPTER In 2020, the Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve underwent an enormous expansion, increasing its I coverage by approximately sevenfold to include protection for the vital reef ecosystem known as Corona Reef. With this one step, the area under strict replenishment (no-take zone) protection II tripled from 4.5 percent to nearly 12 percent of the country’s territorial waters. That made Belize 1 stand out as one of the few countries in the world to have met the 2020 Aichi Target (Convention 2 on Biological Diversity Aichi Target 11), conserving a minimum of 10 percent of their coastal and 3 marine areas. 4 III A PHOTO BY WORLD BANK BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 63 TABLE 10. BELIZE MARINE PROTECTED AREAS AND AGENCIES WITH MANAGEMENT RESPONSIBILITIES. PROTECTED MANAGEMENT (CO-MANAGING YEAR AREA CONTAINS AREA  PARTNERS IN BRACKETS)  ESTABLISHED (ha) MANGROVES  Bacalar Chico Marine Fisheries Department   1995  6,285  Yes  Reserve  Blue Hole Natural Forest Department (Belize Audubon 1995  414  No  Monument  Society)  Caye Caulker Marine Fisheries Department  1998  3,913  Yes  Reserve  Corozal Bay Wildlife Forest Department (Sarteneja Alliance 1998  72,034  Yes  Sanctuary  for Conservation and Development)  Gladden Spit and Silk Fisheries Department (Southern 2000  10,513  No  Cayes Marine Reserve  Environmental Association)  Glover’s Reef Marine Fisheries Department  1993  35,067  Yes  Reserve  Half Moon Caye Forest Department (Belize Audubon 1982  3,954  Yes  Natural Monument  Society)  CHAPTER Hol Chan Marine Fisheries Department (Hol Chan Trust 1987/2014  41,440  Yes  Reserve  Fund) Laughing Bird Forest Department (Southern 1995  4,095  Yes  I National Park  Environmental Association)  II Port Honduras Marine Fisheries Department (Toledo Institute 2000  40,469  Yes  1 Reserve  for Development and Environment)  2 Sapodilla Cayes Fisheries Department (Southern 1996/2020  130,155  Yes  3 Marine Reserve  Environmental Association)  4 III South Water Caye Fisheries Department  1995  47,702  Yes  Marine Reserve  A Swallow Caye Forest Department (Friends of Swallow 2002  3,631  Yes  Wildlife Sanctuary  Caye)  Turneffe Atoll Marine Fisheries Department (Turneffe Atoll 2012  131,690  Yes  Reserve  Sustainability Association)  Shipstern Nature Private (Corozal Sustainable Future 1989  10,058  Yes  Reserve  Initiative, a Belizean NGO)  Source: Modified from Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute (CZMAI), 2016. BELIZE: 64 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) The co-management of MPAs has demonstrated the strong potential of public-private partnerships. Due to the Government’s limited capacity to manage marine protected areas directly, collaborating with NGOs, local communities, and organizations has become an effective alternative for delegating responsibilities. For instance, the Turneffe Atoll Marine Reserve, co-managed by the Fisheries Department and the Turneffe Atoll Sustainability Association, exemplifies innovative marine reserve management.91 The Association runs a program focused on monitoring marine environments, an enforcement program to promote compliance with the management plan, a tourism and financial sustainability program to generate additional revenue sources,92 and a stakeholder engagement program to build conservation leadership skills and raise awareness about the importance of preserving marine resources. Furthermore, as part of Belize’s Blue Bond for Ocean Conservation Program (cf. below, under Pillar 3), the Government of Belize in 2022 and 2023 gazetted 1,296 km2 of its ocean area in new protection zones. This was in addition to the 5,556 km2 of ocean area that it had already designated in protection zones prior to the Blue Bonds agreements. Thus 6,851 km2 of Belize’s total ocean area, or 20.3 percent, are currently under legal protection.93 2.3.2 THE FORESTS (PROTECTION OF MANGROVES) REGULATIONS OF 2018 CHAPTER The Forests (Protection of Mangroves) Regulations, also known as the Mangroves Regulations, established a permitting system that aims to safeguard mangroves and their many ecosystem I services from deforestation and degradation. The regulation follows the principle that no person shall cut or alter any mangrove in the absence of a permit (Regulation 3.1) and that permits may II be granted on a narrow basis only, regardless of whether the land that underlies the mangroves 1 is privately owned or not. 2 3 Under the supervision of the Forest Department, permit requests for mangrove alteration94 must 4 be published in the Gazette for areas larger than one acre (0.4 ha) (Regulation 4). The Department III must engage a review panel (with representatives from various ministries and agencies, a A scientist, and a representative of an NGO active in the field) to make recommendations to the Department in relation to a permit application if the area of alteration is larger than 10 acres (4 ha), if the mangroves are situated on a caye, if they are located within a “mangrove priority area” or within the World Heritage Site, or where “a public good or essential service” is concerned (Regulation 16).  91 Turneffe Atoll Sustainability Association 92 MarFund News 2022. 93 TNC 2023. 94 Alteration means to “cut, remove, defoliate, bury, block, drain or affect by any means, mechanical or otherwise…” BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 65 The Mangroves Regulations forbid the issuance of permits under specific circumstances (Regulation 14). The Department cannot issue permits for (1) mangroves in areas known to be active for nesting, breeding, or resting of birds, (2) overwash mangroves (trees on land that tides regularly wash over), or (3) mangroves within protected areas under the National Protected Areas System Act. The Department cannot issue permits for the alteration or trimming of mangroves if the method involves chemical defoliants or herbicides. The Department must apply multiple conditions to grant any permit. Permits can only be granted if the Department concludes that the intervention will not lead to, among other effects, a lowering or a change of the water quality of the area concerned or to erosion; be contrary to the public interest; harm fish nurseries, nesting sites, fishing productivity, tourism value, or archeological/historic value; or reduction in the storm surge protection function of the area (Regulation 6.1). The assessment for any removal of one or more hectares of mangroves must be based on an environmental impact assessment CHAPTER (EIA) conducted under the authority of the Environment Department (within the Ministry of Sustainable Development). If I it is not immediately clear that any of the II negative effects will occur, the Department 1 is given discretion to issue the permit but 2 must consider a range of aspects, including 3 the distance away from a protected area, the 4 impact on high-value coastal and reef areas, and the carbon storage and sequestration III potential (Regulation 6.2). The Forestry A Department may only grant a permit if the applicant commits to implementing measures to mitigate or remedy adverse consequences to the satisfaction of the Department, such as restoration or planting of new mangrove communities in adjacent degraded areas, equal to double the amount of mangrove that was cleared (Regulation 6.3). Violators are subject to fines of up to US$25,000, imprisonment of up to twelve months, or both (Article 19). PHOTO BY WORLD BANK BELIZE: 66 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) The Department must prepare an assessment report supporting its determination to grant or refuse a permit (Regulation 11). The report must include a description of the proposed activity and a thorough evaluation under Regulation 6, as well as facts and evidence to support the determination, and recommendations in respect to the application. The Forest Department and the Environment Department emphasize that they need additional capacity to enforce the Mangroves Regulations. The departments face a shortage of staff for compliance and enforcement inspections. Moreover, Belizean authorities have pointed out lack of information sharing, which hinders coordination in tracking permits that have been granted or refused. There is also a lack of clarity regarding responsibility for mangrove clearance if land is sold. A lack of public awareness may also be at play. It is noteworthy that the de facto regulatory ban of development of mangrove areas does not yet show an impact on land sales— areas are regularly offered for development — and on land pricing. In addition to its legal framework, Belize has enhanced its regulatory approach to Blue Carbon through a range of policies, plans, and strategies. The Mangrove Action Plan95 delineates five thematic areas to ensure the long-term viability of mangroves and facilitate the attainment of national and global goals. These five areas are strengthening policies and legislation, reduce illegal clearance of mangroves, outreach and awareness of the public, mangrove restoration efforts, and addressing wetland contamination. The Blue Economy Development Policy and Strategy of 2022, meanwhile (see Section 3.1), provides Belize with a roadmap for achieving CHAPTER objectives related to blue governance, incentives for Blue Economy development, and resource mobilization by 2027. I Acknowledging the current gaps in protection, Belizean officials are collaborating with NGOs II to develop additional policies and strategies aimed at more tightly safeguarding the country’s 1 mangroves and seagrass beds. A significant challenge arises from the fact that 70 percent of 2 Belize’s mangroves stand on private lands, posing obstacles to governmental oversight. While 3 the Forests Regulations have established a permitting system to regulate mangrove clearance, 4 the Government recognizes that effective enforcement of permitting is crucial. Consequently, III efforts are underway to analyze mangrove land tenure. Led by WWF in collaboration with A CZMAI, the Lands Department, the Forestry Department, Pew Charitable Trusts, and the National Climate Change Office (NCCO), this initiative aims to update the land registration system, establish a comprehensive database, and create detailed maps regarding mangrove land tenure. Furthermore, a collaborative effort is underway between the Ministry of Blue Economy, the NCCO, CZMAI, FD, WWF, and Pew to develop a Seagrass Management Policy that would enhance stewardship and protection of seagrass ecosystems and their associated services. This policy is aimed at providing a clear framework to address the services, connectivity, risks, and 95 Wildtracks, 2022. Belize Mangrove Alliance Action Plan 2022-2027 BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 67 opportunities for protection within seagrass ecosystems through scientific assessments, mapping, and stakeholder engagement. It also seeks to incorporate community and stakeholder recommendations into its framework. TABLE 11. POLICIES, PLANS, AND STRATEGIES RELATED TO BCE. POLICIES, PLANS, AND STRATEGIES RELATED TO BCE. • National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan for Belize 2030 • NDC Action Plan (2022–2030) • Belize Mangrove Alliance Action Plan (2022-2027) • Blue Economy Development, Policy, and Strategy (2022-2027) • Maritime Economy Plan, 2022 • National Landscape Restoration Strategy for Belize (2022-2030) • Low Emissions Development Strategy and Action Plan 2021 • Forest Department Strategic Action Plan (2019- 2023) • Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan, 2016 • National Biodiversity Strategy and Action (NBSAP) Plan, 2016 • National Forest Policy, 2015 CHAPTER • National Protected Areas System Plan, 2015 • National Climate Change Policy Strategy and Action (NCCPSAP) Plan (2015-2020) I • National Environmental Policy and Strategy (2014-2024) II • National Climate Resilience Investment Plan, 2013 1 2 3 4 2.3.3 MARINE SPATIAL PLANNING AND THE BLUE ECONOMY III A In 2022, the Government of Belize, in collaboration with the Nature Conservancy, initiated the Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) process, officially named the Belize Sustainable Ocean Plan (BSOP).96 Setting this initiative into motion was a Conservation Commitments milestone under Belize’s Blue Bond (see Section 3.2.1). Led by Belize’s Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute (CZMAI), the five-year process has the goal of producing a foundational blueprint of sustainable development for the country. The timeline moves from scientific and policy assessments to stakeholder engagement, plan development, and adoption, and finally to implementation and monitoring. The MSP is being crafted as a vital tool for meeting 96 Belize Sustainable Ocean Plan BELIZE: 68 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) conservation commitments, preserving natural resources, and fostering national economic growth. Realizing CZMAI’s vision for the MSP could bring such actions as designating additional regions as Biodiversity Protection Zones and building upon existing MSP approaches in Belize. The BSOP has set out four main goals, each with strategic objectives and timelines for the MSP process. These goals are: i ii iii iv Establish and carry out Legally safeguard up to Support the Ensure fair and equal the MSP process. 30 percent of Belize’s oceans sustainable growth of access to benefits as Biodiversity Protection Belize’s Blue Economy, from ocean resources Zones, achieving 25 percent and for all Belizeans. by 2024 and the remaining 5 percent by 2026. Through MSP, ecosystem services and co-benefits can be mapped, environmental condition CHAPTER variability analyzed, and impacts on ecosystem services projected. This information can help decision makers identify the most suitable activities for specific areas. I Moreover, MSP will speed Belize’s Blue Economy (BE) development. Its importance is underscored II by its inclusion as an objective in policies shaping BE growth. The need for an “MSP Feasibility 1 Study nationally and sub-nationally, including the Exclusive Economic Zone” is cited in the 2 Strategic Objectives, Outcomes and Actions section of the Belize Blue Economy Development 3 Policy, Strategy, and Implementation Plan (2022-2027). In the Maritime Economy Plan (2022), 4 MSP is discussed in the context of suggested actions and anticipated outcomes for two key III maritime economy sectors in Belize. In the fisheries sector, MSP would inform and support A co-management initiatives between fisheries and tourism. In the ecosystem services sector, it could enhance support to the services through existing mechanisms for conservation and protection. Another key policy for BE development is the Growth and Sustainable Development Strategy for 2016-2019, which outlines the need for a marine spatial plan as part of Necessary Condition 3.1.5. This integration highlights the importance of the BSOP aligning with broader national strategies aimed at promoting economic growth while safeguarding marine environments. BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 69 As Belize continues to grow its Blue Economy, it will need to address several barriers and considerations involving MSP. These were outlined in the Belize Blue Economy Development Policy, Strategy, and Implementation Plan (2022-2027). Firstly, existing ocean regulations pose potential problems for a marine spatial plan as they may not align with the unique standards for planning and development in the MSP framework, particularly concerning BE initiatives. Secondly, placement of shipping lanes and channels for maritime traffic can directly affect national MSP efforts. Despite the importance of MSP in fostering maritime safety, the Port Authority Act contains no clear guidance regarding conflicts between the use of ocean space for shipping and MSP actions. 2.4 INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK The Government of Belize has established new agencies focused on safeguarding Blue Carbon ecosystems. Among them, the recently formed Blue Bond and Finance Permanence Unit is notable for its direct reporting line with the Office of the Prime Minister, underscoring the Government’s emphasis on coordinating blue financial mechanisms. The Blue Economy Unit, CHAPTER meanwhile, works to prioritize Belize’s marine resources for economic development. Overall, Belize’s commitment to Blue Carbon ecosystems is evident across its governmental structure (see Figure 9), complemented by collaboration with numerous national and international I organizations. II 1 Overall, protection and management of mangroves is the responsibility of the Forest Department, 2 working closely with other agencies and organizations. Under the coordination of the Ministry 3 of Sustainable Development and Climate Change, the Forest Department enforces the 4 Mangroves Regulations, while the Department of Environment oversees environmental impact assessments. Through the Blue Bond, coordinated by the Blue Bond Unit, the Forest Department III will carry out a project to improve the monitoring and reporting of mangrove cover and A ongoing restoration activities, identified using a tool under development by Belize’s Mangrove Alliance. The Department will also support compliance of newly designated mangrove reserves and regulations. Seagrass research and management are overseen by the Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute (CZMAI). Under the Ministry of Blue Economy, the CZMAI is receiving funding from the Blue Bond to develop and implement the Belize Sustainable Ocean Plan and to complete a Coastal Zone Management Plan and revise the Coastal Zone Management Act.97 97 Component 4: Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute. Belize Fund for a Sustainable Future. BELIZE: 70 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) FIGURE 9. KEY GOVERNMENT ENTITIES RELATED TO BLUE CARBON ECOSYSTEMS. PRIME MINISTER Ministry of Blue Bond Ministry of Infrastructure, & Finance Finance Development and Permanence Housing (BBFP) Unit MINISTRIES Ministry Ministry Ministry of Ministry of Ministry of of Blue Ministry of of Natural Sustainable Tourism and Agriculture, Economy and Economic Resources, Development and Diaspora Food Security Disaster Risk Development Petroleum and Climate Change Relations and Enterprise Management Mining CHAPTER Blue Economy • Climate and • Technical UNITS Unit Finance Unit Tourism Unit I • Policy and • Diaspora II Planning Unit Relations Unit 1 2 3 • National 4 Climate Change • Lands and III • Fisheries Office Survey Department • Forest • Department of Department A • Coastal Zone Department Agriculture (LSD) Management • Department of • Department of DEPARTMENTS • Land Registry Authority and Environment Cooperatives Department Institute • Protected Areas (LRD) Conservation Trust Belize National Climate Change Committee (BNCCC) BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 71 2.4.1 STAKEHOLDER GROUP 1 GOVERNMENT ENTITIES The Blue Bond and Project Finance (BBFP) Unit was established in the Office of the Prime Minister in 2022. The Unit is responsible for coordination between ministries and ensuring that the Government of Belize meets all commitments highlighted in the Blue Loan Agreement and Conservation Funding Agreement. It was also assigned to design an innovative new financing mode, Project for Finance Permanence (PfP), to further assist Belize in meeting its conservation and NDC ambitions. Other responsibilities of the unit include documenting and maintaining work plans, ensuring project teams have sufficient staff to achieve the Government’s commitments, coordinating with external partners to ensure full implementation of work plans, monitoring program progress, communicating program status information to stakeholders, and ensuring that all governmental and program management standards are met. The Ministry of Blue Economy and Civil Aviation (MBECA) was established in 2020, reflecting recognition of the increasing role of Belize’s marine resources in developing the economy and improving the livelihoods of the country’s people.98 Within the ministry, the Blue Economy Unit oversees attention to ocean assets. A key department in the Blue Economy Unit is the Fisheries Department. It is responsible for collecting and analyzing fisheries data, issuing licenses for fishing, managing ecosystems, enforcing fisheries laws, planning and policy, CHAPTER and administrative works.99 The Civil Aviation arm was incorporated into the same ministry because the development of the aviation sector is considered crucial to supporting the country’s tourism and the administration in place wanted to prioritize its advancement. I II In 1998 the Coastal Zone Management Act established the Coastal Zone Management Authority 1 and Institute (CZMAI), now in MBECA’s Blue Economy Unit. As one of its primary tasks, the CZMAI 2 designed the National Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan in 2016, creating a 3 roadmap to ensure the sustainable use of coastal resources while balancing conservation with 4 economic and social needs. III Though the agency takes part in a broad range of issues, its authority is limited to providing A recommendations to Government agencies rather than making binding decisions. In the same way, the ICZM Plan is only an influential document for decision-making processes. This limitation was highlighted in a 2020 study by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the World Resource Institute (WRI), which found mixed performance in Belize’s ICZM efforts. While the study noted strengths in assessing climate risks, it identified weaknesses in institutional and regulatory integration, as well as in financial capacity to sustain ICZM operations.100 98 MBECA Annual Report 2021. 99 Belize Fisheries Department 100 Bood et al. 2020. BELIZE: 72 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) The Ministry of Sustainable Development and Climate Change is deeply involved in the management and conservation of Belize’s natural resources. Administrative units within this Ministry include the Department of Environment, the Forestry Department, NCCO, the Protected Areas Conservation Trust, the National Biodiversity Office, the National Emergency Management Organization, the National Fire Service, and the National Meteorological Services.101 The Ministry also includes the Belize National Climate Change Committee, which was established in 2015 to mobilize climate change-related actions across the country. Its operational arm is the National Climate Change Office, which is tasked with communicating all aspects of climate change across sectors and helping them work in conjunction with each other to build resilience. The goal is to mainstream climate change information and principles and embed climate change in the lifestyle, actions, and decision-making of Belizeans at large. The Forestry Department oversees forest resources in Belize through sustainable management, wildlife programs, and restoration activities.102 The department is responsible for implementing the Forests (Protection of Mangroves) Regulations of 2018, determining whether permits to alter mangroves will be granted or refused. The department includes the Geospatial Monitoring Unit, which provides information on the state of forest resources to inform policies and decision- making. Through the Blue Bond, the Forestry Department will carry out a project to improve the monitoring and reporting of mangrove cover and ongoing restoration activities. CHAPTER The Department of Environment designs national policies to improve environmental quality and is the lead authority to approve Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) in marine areas. I It also ensures that mitigative measures address harmful consequences of project operations.103 The department recommends priorities among environmental programs and assists in II achieving international cooperation on environmental problems.104 Other work includes 1 strengthening coordination of environmental activities between government and non- 2 government organizations; reviewing and revising existing environmental legislation and 3 regulations where necessary and strengthening their enforcement; promoting environmental 4 planning for key areas of development such as coastal zones, islands and tourism areas; III facilitating public participation in environmental issues through educational campaigns, and A conducting outreach activities in districts. The Protected Areas Conservation Trust (PACT) Fund provides financial support for protected areas through strategic financing and partnerships (see Section 3.2.3). Its core mission is to foster the safeguarding, preservation, and enrichment of Belize’s rich natural and cultural heritage. PACT is authorized to distribute Green Carbon Fund grants of up to US$10 million to finance micro-projects with low to no environmental risk. 101 Ministry of Sustainable Development, Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management 102 Forest Department 103 Environmental Impact Assessment 104 Department of the Environment BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 73 The Ministry of Economic Development is an integral part of the economic and social development of Belize. It recommends national development policies, strategies, and programs to promote macroeconomic stability, sustainable socioeconomic development, and reduction of poverty.105 Its main responsibilities include preparation and management of the capital budget. The Ministry handles authorizing of EU funds, economic development planning, the public sector investment program, statutory boards, and liaising with international financial institutions and multilateral development banks. It serves as the National Designated Authority to the Global Green Climate Fund.106 The Policy and Planning Unit and the Climate Finance Unit are part of this Ministry. The Ministry of Finance advises, coordinates, and implements the Government’s economic and fiscal policies and programs, which include the generation and allocation of Government financial resources. Strategic objectives are to promote security of the populace and guard natural resources, strengthen the framework of financial accountability, and contain public sector external debt and debt service payments to sustainable levels.107 The Ministry is the lead agency on the Carbon Market Bill (see below, Pillar 3), working in collaboration with the Blue Bond Unit. The Ministry of Tourism and Diaspora Relations oversees tourism. It collaborates with private and public sector organizations to develop and implement strategies to improve tourism while conserving natural resources.108 It also oversees programs related to Belizians who live abroad. CHAPTER The Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security, and Enterprise focuses on providing a conducive environment to increasing production and productivity. The ministry comprises two departments:109 the Agriculture Unit is responsible for policies, water management, climate I change, and project execution, while the Cooperative Unit plays oversees agriculture regulatory II services that conform to established standards.110 1 2 The Ministry of Infrastructure, Development, and Housing is dedicated to providing infrastructure 3 and development services. The Ministry has a project execution unit that oversees work to 4 required technical and legal standards. Among the unit’s responsibilities is the Sixth Road (Coastal Highway Upgrading) Project, which is being funded partly with a grant from the UK III Caribbean Infrastructure Partnership Fund.111 The project aims to upgrade Belize’s Coastal A Highway to a full paved standard that will have improved climate resilience. The Ministry is tasked with ensuring that, during construction operations, measures are in place to prevent protected areas and natural resources from being destroyed. 105 Ministry of Economic Development 106 Ministry of Economic Development. Our Responsibilities 107 Ministry of Finance 108 Ministry of Tourism and Diaspora Relations 109 Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Enterprises 110 Ministry of Agriculture, Food Security and Enterprises. Cooperative Department. 111 The Ministry of Infrastructure Development and Housing BELIZE: 74 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) 2.4.2 STAKEHOLDER GROUP 2 COASTAL COMMUNITIES Mangroves along the coasts provide essential goods and services to Belize, including support for artisanal fishing communities. In 2007, about 545,000 kg. of fish were sold to Belize’s fishing cooperatives.112 As of 2012, nearly 13,000 people were benefiting economically from the fishing industry. In 2019, this included approximately 3,400 fishers, predominantly small-scale.113 The majority of fishers in Belize belong to one of its four main fishing cooperatives. These co-ops are Northern Fishermen Society Cooperative Ltd., National Fishermen Producers Cooperative Society Ltd., Placencia Producers Cooperative Society Ltd., and Rio Grande Fishermen Cooperative (Table 12). According to the Belize Fisheries Department, the four enterprises employ roughly 137 people from local communities at their processing facilities, which prepare, package, and administer finfish, lobster, and conch.114 TABLE 12. BELIZE FISHING COOPERATIVES AND ESTIMATED MEMBERSHIP AS OF 2020. COOPERATIVE HEADQUARTERS MEMBERSHIP EXPORT LICENSE CHAPTER Northern Fishermen Belize City 1,231 (611 active) Lobster, conch Society Cooperative Ltd. I National Fishermen Belize City 531 (all active) Lobster, conch Producers Cooperative II Society Ltd. 1 Placencia Producers Placencia, Stann Creek 41 Lobster 2 Cooperative Society Ltd. 3 4 Rio Grande Fishermen Punta Gorda, Toledo 40 Whole lobster, finfish, sea Cooperative cucumber III A Source: Oceana State of Belize Fisheries Report 2020. Fishing in coastal communities is predominantly a male activity—licensed female fishers are few. Despite this, both genders share responsibilities through different roles. Women are often involved in processing the fish and selling it at local markets. 112 Cooper E.L. Burke and N Bood 2008. 113 Oceana 2020. 114 Ibid. BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 75 National Fishermen Producers Cooperative Society Ltd. and Northern Fishermen Cooperative Society Ltd. are the largest of the four fishing co-ops, representing roughly 80 percent of the country’s commercial fishers. They are the only co-ops licensed to export spiny lobster and queen conch – two of the most productive capture species. Roughly 80 percent of the catch of these are sold to the co-ops then exported, with the majority going to the United States.115 To assure that Belize’s own consumers remain supplied, the Government has required the co- ops to sell 5 percent of their catch to local markets. Smaller fishing cooperatives located in the southern part of the country sell their products to either the National or Northern co-op, to be marketed locally or exported.116 In 2019, the National Fishermen Producers Cooperative Society Ltd. and Northern Fishermen Cooperative Society Ltd. partnered with the Nature Conservancy and Future of Fish117 to conduct an innovative Fisheries Improvement Project (FIP). This initiative seeks to support livelihoods, businesses, and the environment through strategic improvements to Belize’s spiny lobster fishery. The partnership marks the first time two rival fishing co-ops in Belize have collaborated towards a common goal. Known as the Caribbean Spiny Lobster Fishery Improvement Project (FIP) + Fishery Development Model (FDM),118 it is Belize’s first FIP and marks the first time the FDM will be included in a traditional FIP. Currently hosted by Fishery Progress,119 the FIP is set to conclude in late 2024. CHAPTER 2.4.3 STAKEHOLDER GROUP 3 DONORS AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS I Collaborative efforts of international organizations support the preservation and sustainable II management of coastal ecosystems in Belize. The World Wildlife Fund partners with 1 local communities to conserve local resources, transform markets and policies towards 2 sustainability, address threats driving climate crisis, and protect and restore wildlife 3 and their habitats.120 WWF, together with the Government of Belize, University of Belize 4 Environmental Research Institute, the Pew Charitable Trusts and other collaborators, is working to protect coastal ecosystems in Belize through ambitious climate commitments. III These include projects such as building a scientific baseline for a better understanding of the A climate value of mangroves and related coastal habitats. WWF intends to work further with the Government to identify and set measurable targets and recommendations for coastal ecosystem protection and conservation. 115 Ibid. 116 Ibid. 117 Belize’s First FIP Brings a Fresh Approach | Future Of Fish 118 12487 (fisheryprogress.org) 119 Belize spiny lobster - free-diving and casitas | Fishery Progress 120 Protecting Coastal Habitats in Belize Through Ambitious Climate Commitments BELIZE: 76 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) In 2020, the NCCO, in collaboration with the World Wildlife Fund and partners, convened the first Blue Carbon Working Group for Belize.121 The Working Group includes representatives from across Government agencies, academia, civil society, communities, and other key stakeholders. It was formed to value the Blue Carbon potential and adaptation co-benefits of Belize’s coastal ecosystems, in order to inform targets to strengthen protection and effective management over the long term. The first estimate of mangrove carbon stocks was conducted in 2023 under the lead of the Smithsonian Environmental Research Institute (SERC).122 This research brought together local NGOs (Corozal Sustainable Future Initiative, the Toledo Institute for Development and Environment, Sarteneja Alliance for Conservation and Development, and Turneffe Atoll Sustainability Association), Government departments (the Forest and Fisheries Departments, the CZMAI, and the NCCO), national and international researchers (from University of Belize Environmental Research Institute, WWF, the Pew Charitable Trusts, and Silvestrum Climate Associates, as well as SERC). The Smithsonian and the Nature Conservancy are supporting several other projects in Belize. The Healthy Reefs for Healthy People (HR4HP) is a conservation program led by the Smithsonian to maintain and improve the health of the Mesoamerican Reef123 and support communities that depend on it. The Reef Recovery Initiative, focused on cryopreservation of marine species, and the initiative Protecting Endangered Mangroves124 around the World, CHAPTER (including in Belize,125) are also led by the Smithsonian. The Nature Conservancy, meanwhile, has supported the country’s marine conservation commitments by closing the Belize Blue I Bonds for Ocean Conservation agreement with the Government of Belize.126 II With the support of international donors, the conservation of blue ecosystems has grown stronger. 1 The World Bank is crafting a project to improve Belize’s management capacity for sustainable 2 development of its Blue Economy and increase access to climate-resilient and sustainable 3 water and sanitation services in targeted coastal areas. The Inter-American Development 4 Bank granted a loan to strengthen the Government’s capacity to sustainably manage Belize’s III commercial and artisanal fish.127 The Commonwealth Marine Economies Programme, A meanwhile, supported the development of the Belize Maritime Economy Plan.128 121 Belize 2021 Updated NDC 122 Morrissette et al. 2023. 123 Smithsonian Global. Belize 124 Ibid. 125 Ibid. 126 Belize Blue Bonds for Ocean Conservation 127 Belize to grow sustainable Blue Economy with IDB support. 128 Belize Maritime Economy Plan BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 77 2.4.4 STAKEHOLDER GROUP 4 NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS National entities in Belize play a pivotal role in advancing coastal ecosystem initiatives. The University of Belize has an Environmental Research Institute dedicated to enhancing scientific capacity to address gaps in local research and the monitoring of natural resources within the country.129 The institute has taken part in Blue Carbon-related projects such as work to strengthen coral reef resilience through science, adaptive management, and stakeholder engagement, a study titled “Comparison of Rookery and Non-Rookery Mangrove Cayes through Biodiversity and Biomass,” and the national mangrove and seagrass carbon storage assessment.130 The Belize Network of NGOs (BNN) gives the groups a unified voice and promotes good governance for sustainable human development. NGOs’ interests are represented in the Senate and National Assembly by a delegate who is the President of the Belize Tourism Industry Association. The Chair of the network’s Board is Dr. Elma Kay from Friends for Conservation and Development. She is the first Managing Director of the Belize Maya Forest Trust and co-founder of the University of Belize Environmental Research Institute (UBERI).131 The Turneffe Atoll Sustainability Association (TASA), a local non-profit organization, is leading CHAPTER by example in co-managing the Turneffe Atoll Marine Reserve (TAMR) alongside the Fisheries Department. TAMR spans approximately 132,000 ha, including 11,000 ha of mangrove forests. To ensure the area’s conservation, TASA has employed 16 officers to oversee its management. I To help them in their work, the organization has made significant investments in technologies II for monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV), including a spatial monitoring and reporting 1 tool (SMART), marine radar, and drone technology. TASA is also engaging with younger people 2 through an education and community program. This initiative includes school visits, with plans 3 in the works to offer high school scholarships, which would foster environmental awareness and 4 involvement among the youth. III TASA’s financial sustainability model has demonstrated success by tapping sources of revenue A beyond grant funding. The organization leverages “high-value, low-impact” tourism to generate income, reducing the strains associated with cruise ships and mass tourism. It collects entrance fees from tourists staying at the four resorts located within Turneffe—an estimated 10,000 visitors take part annually in activities in the reserve such as catch and release, scuba diving, and snorkeling. TASA operates a souvenir store to create another revenue stream. In a move towards diversification, it has established a seaweed farm. However, despite generating these revenues, TASA faces significant shortfalls in income as it strives to cover costs of fuel and salaries. 129 University of Belize. Environmental Research Institute. 130 University of Belize. Environmental Research Institute. Projects. 131 Belize Network of NGOs BELIZE: 78 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) 2.4.5 STAKEHOLDER GROUP 5 PRIVATE ACTORS Approximately 70 percent of Belize’s coastline is privately owned,132 limiting the Government’s control over the use and protection of mangroves, despite authority granted by the Mangroves Regulations of 2018. However, the Government is often able to collaborate closely with private landowners on a voluntary basis to promote development practices that safeguard mangroves. For example, Balam Coastal Estate, a private estate located along the northern coast of Belize, is conserving 1,488 hectares of mangroves on its land as a dedicated mangrove reserve.133 This initiative is helping Belize achieve its goal of enhancing mangrove protection and bolstering the country’s carbon sink capacity. In addition, a private party and the Government created a Trust to protect an area of Turneffe Atoll. In 2020, the Turneffe Atoll Trust (a non-profit company that aims to promote conservation and sustainability of Turneffe Atoll) reached an agreement with the Government to create the Turneffe Land Trust. It ensures that 6,880 hectares of Turneffe Atoll will remain in their natural state permanently, with the Government and People of Belize as the legal and beneficial owners, and the Turneffe Atoll Trust serving as Trustee to oversee and manage the Trust. CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY OCEANA BELIZE 132 WWF and Brooksmith Consulting 2011. 133 Balam Coastal Estate BELIZE: POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 79 2.5 ANALYSIS OF PILLAR 2 ACHIEVEMENTS Belize shows a strong commitment, at the level of the NDC and through its legal and policy framework, to protect and conserve Blue Carbon ecosystems. The NDC sets forth specific objectives for Blue Carbon ecosystems, ranging from the conservation and restoration of mangroves to the enhancement of data regarding seagrass beds and the exploration of new financial mechanisms. Belize continuously strives to hone its legal and policy framework. Discussions surrounding a carbon market bill (see Section 3.3), ongoing work on land tenure analysis, and the development of a seagrass policy reflect the country’s dedication to improvement. In addition, the engagement of international and national organizations in these processes underscores the strong relationship between the Government and civil society. Establishment of the Blue Bond and Project Finance (BBFP) Unit in (within the Office of the Prime Minister) and the Ministry of Blue Economy represents a notable step in governance CHAPTER for Blue Carbon strategies. I AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT II 1 2 This section identifies areas for improvement 3 to enhance Belize’s Blue Carbon readiness. 4 The areas are detailed below and, where relevant, are linked to specific recommendations III provided in the final section of this report. A • It is not yet apparent how the core NDC commitments to protect 12,000 ha of mangrove and restore 4,000 ha of mangrove by 2025/2030 will be implemented on the ground. The conservation targets could be met by extending the ocean protection zones initiated in 2022 and 2023 as part of Belize’s Blue Bond for Ocean Conservation Program (see Section 3). PHOTO BY NACOR BOLAÑOS BELIZE: 80 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT POLICY AND INSTITUTIONS (PILLAR 2) • The NDC Partnership tracking system, • Some of the legislative and institutional where Belize’s NDC action plan is located, tools are constructive in scope, cf. the role has the potential to be a solid tool that and remit of the CZMAI, yet lack regulatory enforces the country’s transparency in and administrative teeth. This leads to a achieving its international commitments. regulatory hands-off approach and failure While the system currently offers an to closely balance development interests overview of commitments, projects, (cf. the planned construction of three new and funding, it lacks complete and ports or landing docks along the coast) updated information for each activity. It with nature protection and restoration is important to note that in collaboration interests. [Recommendation 3, Pillar 2] with ICAT, Belize is currently developing a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification • Co-management of MPAs is a successful (MRV) system to track the progress of its example of public-private partnerships. NDC targets which might be addressing Given that about 70 percent of mangroves the gaps of the NDC Partnership tracking in Belize are privately owned, the system.134 [Recommendation 1, Pillar 2] Government could consider pursuing similar public-private partnerships with • The Blue Bond’s Conservation Agreement landowners to engage their participation mandated the designation of remaining in conserving these ecosystems. public lands within the Belize Barrier Reef [Recommendation 4, Pillar 3] Reserve System as mangrove reserves. CHAPTER In that regard, all national lands within • Belize needs to strengthen women’s roles the South Water Caye Marine Reserve, in the Blue Economy. Although women I Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve, and in fishers’ cooperatives do not take part Bacalar Chico National Park were declared directly in fishing, they play crucial roles II forest reserves in 2022. But no information in administrative tasks, such as fish 1 has been published regarding the size processing and marketing that should 2 or extent of the new protected areas. be highlighted and better recognized. 3 As a result, it’s currently impossible to [Recommendation 4, Pillar 2] 4 confirm how much of the NDC protection III commitment has been fulfilled through A this measure. [Recommendation 1, Pillar 2] • While legislative tools such as the 2018 Mangroves Regulations exist to protect mangroves both within and outside protected areas, their implementation and enforcement are inconsistent. [Recommendation 2, Pillar 2] 134 Alvarez, et al. (2022). BELIZE: FINANCE (PILLAR 3) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 81 3. FINANCE PILLAR 3 CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY MUHAMMAD MUKNII BELIZE: 82 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT FINANCE (PILLAR 3) FINANCE (PILLAR 3) FIGURE 10. SUMMARY TABLE FOR PILLAR 3, BASED ON THE INVESTMENT READINESS FRAMEWORK FOR GOVERNMENTS OF THE WORLD BANK. DECISION TREE PATHWAY STATUS STATUS EXPLANATION Belize developed the Climate Does your country have a Blue Finance Landscape, the Belize Carbon finance and investment H Maritime Economy Plan, and the strategy in place? Blue Economy Development, Policy, Strategy, and Action Plan. The Blue Economy Strategy lacks clear deadlines and financial mechanisms for its objectives. Financial tools are under implementation and preparation: CHAPTER Has your country • Blue Bond (debt for nature swap) operationalized specific H funding tools? • Project Finance for Permanence • Protected Areas Conservation I Trust II 1 Absence of blue carbon projects and lack of public-private 2 partnerships. 3 4 The Climate Change and Carbon III Does your country intend to Market Initiatives Bill is under A use carbon markets as a means H development. It includes blue of investment? carbon and makes reference to Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The draft Bill still misses to define community roles, lacks clarity on carbon rights, and does not establish clear governance or implementation rules for Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. QUALITY L M H PROGRESS → → ACHIEVEMENTS MISSING LOW HIGH LIMITED ADVANCED BELIZE: FINANCE (PILLAR 3) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 83 3.1 BLUE INVESTMENT STRATEGY Belize’s Climate Finance Strategy estimates that implementation of the country’s updated NDC will cost US$1,906 million.135 The cost to accomplish the targets on coastal and marine ecosystems is estimated at close to US$416 million, of which mangrove protection was estimated to need US$290 million.136 According to Belize’s NDC Implementation Plan, funding received for the marine and coastal ecosystems so far amounts to just US$8.2 million (see Table 13), indicating that the country still needs approximately US$400 million for that work. CHAPTER The Climate Finance Strategy does not come with a breakdown of how the costing figures were calculated, making it I impossible to assess the methodology’s II robustness. For a hypothetical scenario 1 developed by the authors, in which 2 12,000 ha of mangrove areas are 3 purchased to be put in trust, the 4 costs in a high-cost scenario would be less than US$10 million (without III accounting for management costs in A perpetuity). The costs for purchasing land for restoration (1,355 ha), including restoration measures, would be less than US$70 million (high-cost scenario).137 If this figure were scaled to 4,000 ha, the costs would be in the range of PHOTO BY JULIANA CASTAÑO ISAZA US$200 million. 135 Climate Finance Strategy of Belize 2021-2026. Commonwealth Climate Finance Access Hub of the Commonwealth Secretariat. 136 NDC Implementation Plan Brief of January 2022. 137 Calculations done by the authors. 84 III CHAPTER II A 4 3 2 1 I TABLE 13. FUNDING FOR THE OCEANS AND COASTS SECTOR. (US$) PROJECT NAME DEVELOPMENT BUDGET PARTNER IMPLEMENTING ENTITY FUNDING SOURCE PERIOD Resilient Reefs Initiative $452,768.10 Great Barrier Reef CZMAI, Lands and Surveys Great Barrier Reef 2023-2024 Foundation Department, WWF Foundation A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT BELIZE: Establishing the enabling environment $1,428,385.75 Belize (Blue Bond and Forest Department Belize (Belize Fund for 2022-2025 for the development of an MSP Finance Permanence a Sustainable Future- through strengthened governance, Unit) Government Strategic improved management, and enhanced Allocation) monitoring of Belize’s coastal and marine resources. Component 5: Improving monitoring, reporting, and socialization of mangroves and reserves Integrated Ridge-to-Reef Management $120,000.00 WWF, CCAD Department of the Environment GEF 2014 - 2022 of the Mesoamerican Reef Ecoregion Smart Coasts $270,016.50 WWF CZMAI Germany (IKI), Germany 2018-2023 (BMZ) Forging a Sustainable Blue Economy $90,000.00 MAR Fund Ministry of the Blue Economy MAR Fund for Belize: A national development and Civil Aviation / Turneffe strategy and plan Atoll Sustainability Association Fostering Protection for Coastal $270,000.00 WWF, Pew, Silvestrum UB-ERI,CZMAI, FD, FiD WWF, Pew 2019-2022 Ecosystems through the NDC Process Climate Associates FINANCE (PILLAR 3) (Phase 1). Target: Mangrove Blue Carbon above and below ground data available FINANCE (PILLAR 3) PROJECT NAME DEVELOPMENT BUDGET PARTNER IMPLEMENTING ENTITY FUNDING SOURCE PERIOD Use of Nature-based Solutions to $1,500,000.00 CABEI Forest Department, WRI, CATIE UN-Habitat - Adaptation 2022-2027 Increase Resilience to Extreme Fund Climate Events in the Atlantic Region of Central America. Target to 2027: 500 hectares of mangroves and riparian forests thickened or replanted Enhancing adaptation planning and $125,500.00 FAO CZMAI and Fisheries GCF 2022 climate resilience in the coastal zone Department and fisheries sector of Belize Enhancing the Resilience of Belize’s $4,000,000.00 UN Habitat National Climate Change Office UN-Habitat - Adaptation 4.5 years in Coastal Communities to Climate and Coastal Zone Management Fund duration Change Impacts Authority and Institute A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT BELIZE: Total $8,256,670.35 Source: Belize NDC Implementation Plan, NDC Partnership. 85 III CHAPTER II A 4 3 2 1 I BELIZE: 86 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT FINANCE (PILLAR 3) To achieve the country’s targets, Belize has developed key financial strategies: the 2021-2023 Climate Finance Strategy for Belize, the Belize Maritime Economy Plan, and the Blue Economy Development Policy, Strategy, and Implementation Plan 2022-2027. The 2021- 2023 Climate Finance Strategy addresses Blue Carbon objectives that include the issuance of the Blue Bond and streamlining of Blue Bond initiatives, the development of a Blue Carbon action plan based on the REDD+ strategy, the implementation plan of the Ministry of Blue Economy, and exploration of financial options such as blended finance and debt for nature swaps. The Maritime Economy Plan, issued in October 2022, provides a set of actions to tap potential funding streams, aiming to help the Government of Belize prioritize activities and identify places where coordination is needed. The Plan addresses the maritime economy sectors: coastal development, shipping and ports, fisheries, aquaculture, tourism, energy, and ecosystem services. The ecosystem services section points out the need to use natural capital valuation to understand the value of ecosystem goods and services and to apply the information to inform decision-making. Research and data collection from mangroves and seagrass could support the development of a Blue Carbon product. The Blue Economy Development Policy, Strategy, and Implementation Plan 2022-2027 is a detailed document that adopts a multi-sectoral approach to ensure a robust and sustainable ocean economy, considering the interactions between mangroves, seagrass, coral reefs, and the Exclusive Economic Zone. It establishes several strategic objectives and actions on blue governance, CHAPTER incentives for Blue Economy development, and resource mobilization. Concerning blue governance, it proposes the passage of a Blue Economy Act and enforcement of the rules and I regulations of the blue sector. It highlights a need to create fit-for-purpose “incentive packages,” enhance capacity building in all sectors, close gender gaps in the Blue Economy, and generate II data. Finally, to mobilize resources, it points out the need to identify Blue Carbon opportunities, 1 prepare high-quality investible projects, and expand the use of parametric insurance to protect 2 returns from coastal and marine resources. 3 4 III A PHOTO BY JULIANA CASTAÑO ISAZA BELIZE: FINANCE (PILLAR 3) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 87 3.2 FINANCING MECHANISMS Belize has made significant strides in the preservation and conservation of its Blue Carbon ecosystems through use of innovative financial instruments. Among these tools are the Blue Bond, designed to channel funds specifically towards protection of marine resources, including mangroves and seagrass beds. Grant funding has also provided crucial support to conservation efforts, nurturing projects aimed at safeguarding coastal habitats. Looking ahead, Belize is poised to further strengthen its financial framework with the imminent launch of Project Finance Performance and the carbon market. 3.2.1 BLUE BOND (DEBT FOR NATURE SWAP) In November 2021, the Nature Conservancy and the Government of Belize finalized an agreement to establish the Belize Blue Bonds for Ocean Conservation, the largest debt conversion for marine conservation at that time. It provided immediate economic relief to Belize with a debt-to-GDP reduction of 12 percent (approximately US$364 million) in exchange for a governmental commitment to protect 30 percent of Belize’s oceans, in addition to a range of other conservation CHAPTER measures. The debt conversion allowed Belize to buy back USD 553 million—equivalent to a quarter of its total public debt—at a 45% discount from bondholders. This process led to a USD 189 million reduction in principal outstanding. The refinancing savings enabled Belize to I generate an estimated USD 180 million in conservation funding over the next 20 years, derived II from annual government cashflows and an endowment funded by the Blue Loan.138 1 2 In 2022, two tools were created to facilitate the implementation of the Blue Bond: the Belize Fund 3 for a Sustainable Future (BFSF) and the Blue Bond and Finance Permanence (BBFP) Unit. The BFSF 4 serves as an independent conservation fund to support coastal and marine resource funding. It allocates funds as follows: 40 percent to Government institutions (Government Strategic III Allocation), 40 percent to non-state actors (Grants Award Program), and 20 percent to general A and administrative expenses. To date, about US$7.6 million has been distributed under the Government Strategic Allocation and Grants Award programs. The recently created BBFP Unit (see Section 2.4.1) is tasked with overseeing Belize’s compliance with the Blue Bond and designing the planned Project for Finance Permanence (PfP) initiative (see Section 3.2.2). By 2023, Belize had accomplished the first three of eight milestones outlined in the Blue Bonds agreements (Figure 11). These achievements included expanding Biodiversity Protection Zones to cover 20.3 percent of the country’s ocean territory, equivalent to 6,851 km2; designating 138 Nature Conservancy 2023 BELIZE: 88 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT FINANCE (PILLAR 3) public lands within the Belize Barrier Reef System as Mangrove Reserves; and initiating the Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) process known as the “Belize Sustainable Ocean Plan” (see Section 2.3.3). Aligning with commitments made under the Belize Blue Bond, the national lands of three MPAs were declared forest reserves. The Blue Bond’s Conservation Agreement mandated the designation of remaining public lands within the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System as mangrove reserves.139 In that regard, all national lands within the South Water Caye Marine Reserve, Sapodilla Cayes Marine Reserve, and Bacalar Chico National Park were declared forest reserves in 2022.140 However, no information has been published regarding the size or extent of the new protected areas. As a result, it’s currently impossible to confirm how much of the NDC protection commitment has been fulfilled through this measure. FIGURE 11. BLUE BOND MILESTONES IN BELIZE. PROGRESS ON CONSERVATION COMMITMENTS MILESTONE MILESTONE DESCRIPTION DUE DATE STATUS 1 Expand Biodiversity Protection Zones to 20.5% of Belize’s Ocean 5/4/2022 Complete CHAPTER 2 Designate Public Lands within the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System 5/4/2022 Complete as Mangrove Reserves I 3 Initiate the process of developing a Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) for 11/4/2022 Complete II Belize’s Ocean 1 4 Expand Biodiversity Protection Zones to 25% of Belize’s Ocean 11/4/2024 In progress 2 3 5 Approve, sign into law, and gazette the revised Coastal Zone 11/4/2025 Management Act and Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan 4 III 6 Expand Biodiversity Protection Zones up to 30% of Belize’s Ocean; 11/4/2026 A MSP completed, approved, signed into law, gazetted and implemented 7 Apply to have at least 3 designated marine protected areas in Belize 11/4/2027 listed as IUCN Green List Areas 8 Approve Management Plans for the Biodiversity Protection Zones 11/4/2029 Source: TNC 2023. 139 https://www.nationalassembly.gov.bz/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Supplementary-24th-August-2022-1.pdf 140 Statutory Instrument No 72. BELIZE: FINANCE (PILLAR 3) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 89 The Belize Sustainable Ocean Plan, also known as Marine Spatial Plan (MSP), was launched in October 2022 to facilitate a strategic analysis of Belize’s ocean use and coordination of activities. The plan is led by Belize’s Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute (CZMAI). By 2023, under CZMAI’s leadership, a prototype data viewer was developed by 2023 to provide direct, online access to spatial data on key ecosystems, human uses, and sectors benefiting from marine resources. The remaining five milestones are to be completed in coming years. Targets have been set for expanding Biodiversity Protection Zones to 25 percent by November 2024 and 30 percent by 2026. The Coastal Zone Management Authority and Institute will recommend the sites to be protected through Marine Spatial Planning. In addition, by 2025 the Government aims to enact the Coastal Zone Management Act and Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan into law, followed by the completion and approval of the Marine Spatial Plan by 2026. Further, application to designate at least three marine protected areas as IUCN Green List Areas would take place by 2027 and approval of management plans for Biodiversity Protection Zones by 2029. 3.2.2 PROJECT FINANCE FOR PERFORMANCE (PFP) Under the Blue and Green Islands Global Environment Facility (GEF8) program,141 Belize is developing the Project Finance for Permanence (PFP) initiative. In collaboration with WWF, CHAPTER the Blue Bond and Finance Permanence Unit is designing the initiative, which is scheduled for launch in 2025. It primarily aims to ensure the long-term conservation and resilience of Belize’s marine and coastal areas and their ecosystems through sustainable financing based on private- I public partnerships. II 1 With initial support from a GEF project grant of US$4,742,964, the initiative will need to secure an 2 additional US$40,790,000 in co-financing for implementation work.142 One key objective of the 3 PFP is major improvements in the management of coastal protected areas, Marine Protected 4 Areas (MPAs), mangroves, and coastal ecosystems outside the formal protected area system. Furthermore, the initiative seeks to help restore critically degraded coastal areas and enhance III the livelihoods of communities targeted by the project. A With PFP still in the developmental stages, numerous details – including how the Government of Belize might provide increased in-country funding – remain to be finalized. Nonetheless, it stands as a promising initiative to complement funding secured through the Blue Bond. Unlike the bond, where funding is provided upfront, the PFP disburses money only once milestones are achieved. Carbon finance components for leveraging funding (cf. the CMI Needs Assessment) may become instrumental, as might biodiversity financing (see Box 1). 141 Resilient Bold Belize 142 Ibid BELIZE: 90 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT FINANCE (PILLAR 3) BOX 1. BIODIVERSITY CREDITS. Biodiversity credits could emerge as a new financial leveraging the underlying ecosystem service rather stream for Belize, possibly linked to the PFP. than providing a quid pro quo tool for compensating for The 2022 Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity nature-negative interventions. Framework (GBF) encourages the unlocking of finance Globally, several voluntary standards have been through innovative schemes such as biodiversity proposed for biodiversity crediting. Plan Vivo’s offsets and credits. While biodiversity offsetting has PV Nature Methodology, launched in December been used at least since the 1980s to compensate for 2023, has seven pilot projects in the implementation biodiversity losses through measured conservation phase. Verra is currently developing its SD VISta or restoration outcomes, the concept of biodiversity Nature Framework Methodology (SDVM002), while credits is new and still largely under development. Gold Standard is working on its Biodiversity Impact Defined as “verifiable, quantifiable, and tradeable Framework, scheduled for release before the end of units of restored or preserved biodiversity over a 2024. These methodologies will likely apply to multiple fixed period,”143 the credits focus on recognizing and projects, landscapes, and funds.144 143 WEF 2023. 144 Gold Standard 2024. https://www.goldstandard.org/news/frameworks-for-biodiversity-conservation-and-restoration 3.2.3 PROTECTED AREAS CONSERVATION TRUST (PACT) CHAPTER The Protected Areas Conservation Trust (PACT) is a national institution founded in 1996 by I the Government of Belize under the PACT Act. Its core mission is to foster the safeguarding, preservation, and enrichment of Belize’s rich natural and cultural heritage. Belize has increased II its national capacity to access climate finance though PACT, which is the National Implementing 1 Entity (NIE) for the Adaptation Fund and the first national accredited entity for GCF since 2018. 2 PACT’s accreditation allows it to access and distribute GCF grants of up to US$10 million to 3 finance climate micro-projects with low to no environmental risk. 4 III PACT plays a pivotal role in the effective management of Belize’s National Protected Areas System A (NPAS) through strategic partnerships and impactful investments. Currently, the NPAS comprises 103 protected areas spanning diverse categories such as forest reserves, nature reserves, national parks, marine reserves, private reserves, wildlife sanctuaries, natural monuments, bird sanctuaries, spawning aggregation reserves, and archaeological reserves. Governed by a Board of Directors drawn from the public, private, and non-governmental sectors, PACT operates with a commitment to transparency, equity, and accountability. The Board collectively upholds the primary principles of the Trust, implementing policies that ensure the long-term sustainability of the organization and the wise and effective distribution of trust funds across the national protected areas system. BELIZE: FINANCE (PILLAR 3) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 91 PACT’s funding comes primarily from tourism- related charges, including a conservation fee and commissions from cruise ship passengers and fees for fiduciary and grant management services. Departing visitors to Belize pay a conservation fee of BZ$7.50 (US$3.75), and PACT receives a 15 percent commission from cruise ship passenger fees. The organization also administers fiduciary roles for entities such as the World Bank (for the REDD+ Readiness Project), the Meso-American Reef Fund (MAR Fund), the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), the Central American Commission for Development and Environment (CCAD), and the Belize Nature Conservation Foundation (BNCF). In October 2015, amendments to the PACT legislation expanded its legal mandate to include “setting strategic priorities for the development, mobilization, and allocation of financial resources for the BNPAS,” the Belize National Protected Areas CHAPTER System. Subsequently, in 2018, PACT put into operation a Climate Finance Portfolio (CFP) aimed at unlocking new funding streams and enhancing I national capacity for the sustainable management II of natural resources, climate change, and 1 biodiversity. This initiative is funded both by 2 international and national sources, including 3 contributions from the Green Climate Fund, PHOTO BY ROBIN JAMES BARTLETT 4 Adaptation Fund, and PACT itself. III A 3.2.4 CLIMATE FINANCE MOBILIZATION Belize’s coastal wetlands have benefitted in the past from classic donor-led conservation finance. More recently, growing volumes of funding have come from facilities and funds under leading multilateral environmental agreements, notably the UNFCCC and its financing mechanisms, the Convention on Biological Diversity, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and the Ramsar Convention. The Belize National Climate Change Office seeks to mobilize sizable international grants to help in implementation of its NDC commitments (as per the Belize Resource Requirement Report). Blue carbon ecosystems may also benefit from initiatives of multilateral and bilateral donors. BELIZE: 92 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT FINANCE (PILLAR 3) TABLE 14. BELIZE’S MULTILATERAL AND BILATERAL CLIMATE FINANCE PLATFORMS. INSTITUTION DESCRIPTION FUNDING Global Environment GEF funds a variety of coastal projects with a focus on In 2021, the GEF SGP awarded project Facility (GEF) fisheries, adaptation, and mitigation. It has supported grants worth US$1.2 million to support Belize through grants that promote national Blue 33 civil organizations in Belize. The Economy priorities through MPA planning. It also Placencia Tour Guide Cooperative increased its funding of non-grants, blended finance Society Limited received about instruments covering loans, equity, and guarantees, US$50,000 for the Local Management often in collaboration with the private sector. The GEF of Blue Economy Resources for Small Grants Programme (SGP) supports the Turneffe Sustainable Livelihoods Project.146 Atoll Sustainability Association in planning for the About US $68,000 was awarded to the impacts of climate change.145 Turneffe Atoll Sustainability Association for a project titled “Applying Adaptive Management Practices to Enhance Compliance with Fishery Management Measures at the TAMR.” Between 2018 and 2023, through the Central American Integration System (SICA), Belize received together with Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico a total of €4 million for the “Climate-Smarting Marine Protected Areas and Coastal Management in the Mesoamerican Reef CHAPTER Region” project.”147 Adaptation Fund AF finances projects and program that help vulnerable Between 2015 and 2020, Belize I (AF) communities in developing countries adapt to climate received US$5.53 million for the Belize II change. It pioneered Direct Access and Enhanced Marine Conservation and Climate Direct Access, which allows countries to obtain funding Adaptation Project (MCCAP) with the 1 and develop local projects directly through accredited objective of implementing priority 2 national implementing entities. AF is financed by ecosystem-based marine conservation 3 government and private donors, and a 2% share of and climate adaptation measures to proceeds of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) strengthen the climate resilience of the 4 issued under the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Belize Barrier Reef System.149 PACT III Mechanism.148 acted as the National Implementing A Entity and the World Bank as the Multilateral Implementing Entity. 145 GEF. 146 UN Belize 2021. The GEF Small Grants Programme Awards Grants to support 33 civil society organizations. 147 Climate-Smarting Marine Protected Areas and Coastal Management in the Mesoamerican Reef Region Project. 148 Adaptation Fund. 149 Belize Marine Conservation and Climate Adaptation Project. https://fisheries.gov.bz/mccap/#:~:text=With%20an%20 Adaptation%20Fund%20grant,the%20Belize%20Barrier%20Reef%20System. BELIZE: FINANCE (PILLAR 3) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 93 INSTITUTION DESCRIPTION FUNDING Green Climate Fund GCF is the largest global fund committed to fighting Belize has received total GCF financing (GCF) climate change. It helps developing countries raise of US$37 million.151 GCF has approved and achieve their NDC ambitions towards low- three adaptation projects, one focusing emissions, climate-resilient pathways. GCF operates on coral reefs investment. It has also through a network of more than 200 Accredited approved 14 readiness activities, with Entities and delivery partners who collaborate directly US$7.7 million of readiness support. with developing countries for project design and implementation. GCF is required to invest 50% of its resources in mitigation and 50% in adaptation in grant equivalent.150 Forest Carbon Launched in 2008, the FCPF is a global partnership Between 2017 and 2022, FCPF Partnership Facility working with 47 developing countries to reduce granted Belize US$3.8 million to carry (FCPF) emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, out Readiness Preparation through a and foster forest carbon stock conservation, sustainable participatory and inclusive process management of forests, and enhancement of forest to strengthen capacity to participate carbon stocks. The FCPF supports REDD+ efforts in future REDD+ carbon payment through two separate but complementary funds: the transactions. FCPF Readiness Fund and the FCPF Carbon Fund. Global Climate GCCA+ is an initiative of the European Union to build Between 2011 and 2014, GCCA+ Change Alliance an alliance on climate change between the EU and contributed €2.9 million to support the Plus (GCCA+) developing countries that are the most affected project “Enhancing Belize’s resilience to CHAPTER and have the least capacity to respond. The GCCA adapt to the effects of climate change transitioned to its current identity GCCA+ in 2015 from 2011-2014.” Under this project, with new characteristics and a strategic orientation the National Climate Change Office towards supporting the 2015 Paris Agreement on (NCCO) was designated to manage I Climate Change and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable climate-related issues for the country.153 II Development and its Sustainable Development Goals. Priority areas include disaster risk reduction (DRR), 1 mainstreaming climate change into poverty reduction 2 and development strategies, adaptation, building on 3 the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPAs) and other national plans, and reducing emissions 4 from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), III among others.152 A 150 Green Climate Fund 151 https://www.greenclimate.fund/countries/belize 152 Global Climate Change Alliance 153 Enhancing Belize’s resilience to adapt to the effects of climate change BELIZE: 94 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT FINANCE (PILLAR 3) INSTITUTION DESCRIPTION FUNDING Bilateral Programs and Philanthropy Assistance Oak Foundation The Oak Foundation is dedicated to tackling global, In 2016 the Belize Marine Fund (BMF) social, and environmental challenges, with a focus was created through a US$10 million on issues significantly affecting disadvantaged endowment to the Mesoamerican communities. Its grants go to organizations in Reef Fund (MAR Fund) from the approximately 40 countries worldwide.154 Oak Foundation.155 The BMF invests US$500,000 annually in organizations and projects that will provide impactful conservation returns in the marine environment through small targeted grants based on prioritized thematic areas. UK Blue Planet The Blue Planet Fund is the UK’s £500 million program The OCCP will receive £54 million Fund supporting developing countries to protect the marine from the Blue Planet Fund to support environment and reduce poverty. It is financed through partner countries, including Belize. the Official Development Assistance (ODA) budget. The program focuses on providing The fund supports works related to four integrated demand-led technical assistance themes: biodiversity, climate change, marine pollution, around the three key themes of OCPP: and sustainable seafood. The Blue Planet Fund has a marine biodiversity, marine pollution, multilateral program with the UK Blue Carbon Fund to and sustainable seafood.158 accelerate development of the Blue Economy of priority CHAPTER countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. Problue, Blue Forests, Ocean Risk and Resilience Action Alliance (ORRAA), and the Global Fund for Coral Reefs (GFCR) I are included in the multilateral programs of the fund.156 Blue Planet Fund also has a bilateral tie-in with the II Ocean Country Partnership Programme (OCCP).157 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY JULIANA CASTAÑO ISAZA 154 Oak Fund 155 Belize Marine Fund 156 UK Government (December 2023) Policy Paper. Blue Planet Fund. 157 UK Government (December 2023) Ocean Country Partnership Programme. 158 JNCC. Delivering technical assistance on Marine Protected Areas in Belize. BELIZE: FINANCE (PILLAR 3) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 95 3.3 CARBON MARKETS The updated version of Belize’s NDC outlines the country’s commitment to implementing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement and exploring additional financing opportunities, such as Blue Carbon credits. While Belize has yet to establish a framework for Article 6, progress is underway with the Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Bill,159 which is undergoing consultation processes at the time this report. Discussed in more detail in the complementary report “Belize Carbon Market Infrastructure Needs Assessment,” the bill explicitly recognizes Blue Carbon as eligible for carbon-finance generation. It also defines carbon credits as intangible property rights belonging to project developers and landholders. While the recognition of Blue Carbon approaches and the definition of carbon title in this context will hardly remove all the uncertainty that typically surrounds land tenure and carbon rights, it is an important step forward. As stakeholders continue to discuss the bill, the Belize CMI report makes a number of recommendations. They include: CHAPTER • The bill should ensure compliance with Article 6 requirements by including fundamental guiding principles. For example, it should specify the authority I responsible for issuing letters of authorization, it should II outline procedures for authorizing Internationally 1 Transferred Mitigation Outcomes, and it should 2 empower the Minister to enact an Article 6 framework 3 through delegated legislation. 4 • It should clarify the circumstances and conditions in III which the Government will or may engage in credit A transactions (state land being an obvious but probably not the only relevant indicator). • It should establish core principles for benefit sharing. • It should consider including monitoring procedures after credit transactions are completed to ensure the projects’ permanence and compliance with safeguards. PHOTO BY JULIANA CASTAÑO ISAZA 159 Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Bill 2023 BELIZE: 96 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT FINANCE (PILLAR 3) 3.4 REDD+ FINANCE In 2012, the Government of Belize initiated development of a national program on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) in partnership with the World Bank Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF). The Government completed a REDD+ “readiness preparation plan” in 2015 and in 2017 received a grant of US$3.8 million to carry out a REDD+ “readiness package” as the basis of a future REDD+ program.160 The package included the elaboration of the Strategic Environmental and Social Assessment (SESA), design of the country’s overall REDD+ Strategy in 2021, and development of engagement protocols with all four Indigenous People groups in Belize. A key milestone of the partnership with FCPF was the development of the National Forest Monitoring System (NFMS). For details, see Section 1. While Belize has no emission reduction purchase agreement in place with the FCPF’s Carbon Fund, the Government has registered REDD+ results of about 5.5 million tCO2e. for the years 2016 through 2018 combined with the UNFCCC.161 To date, the Government of Belize has received no payment for these results. Outside Government action proper, several initiatives have been implemented or are underway. The Verra Registry, as of 2024, shows five REDD+ projects, one of them completed, three registered, and one registration request filed (see Table 15). No credits CHAPTER have been issued yet. I PHOTO BY OCEANA BELIZE II 1 2 3 4 III A 160 World Bank 2022. 161 https://redd.unfccc.int/info-hub.html. BELIZE: FINANCE (PILLAR 3) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 97 TABLE 15. BELIZE’S REDD+ PROJECTS. PROJECT SIZE DESCRIPTION STATUS METHODOLOGY EXPECTED NAME AND (ha) ANNUAL PROPONENT CREDITS BODEN CREEK 3,980 Use of eco tourism to Registered- VCS VM0007 57,718 ECOLOGICAL fund land conservation, Ended PRESERVE FOREST community development CARBON PROJECT and sustainable practices - Forest Carbon Offsets LLC BULL RUN 4,650 Deforestation avoidance Registered- VCS VM0007 15, 8500 OVERSEAS FOREST in tropical pine forests Ongoing CARBON PROJECT with biodiversity and - Forest Carbon community benefits Offsets LLC through educational opportunities LAGUNA SECA 8,432 Emissions avoidance Registered- VCS VM0007 131, 611 FOREST CARBON through prevention of the Ongoing PROJECT conversion of forests into - The Forestland sugarcane agriculture CHAPTER Group LLC RIO BRAVO 6,296 Reduction of GHG Registered- VCS VM0007 94,970 CLIMATE ACTION emissions through the Ongoing I PROJECT acquisition and protection - The Nature of forest lands threatened II Conservancy by agricultural conversion 1 and Winrock 2 International 3 BELIZE MAYA 87,041 Reduction of GHG Under VCS VM0007 996,107 4 FOREST REDD+ emissions through the validation III PROJECT acquisition and protection - The Nature of forest lands threatened A Conservancy and by agricultural conversion Belize Maya Forest Trust BELIZE: 98 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT FINANCE (PILLAR 3) The active engagement with REDD+ provides a model for future Blue Carbon financing, while the pending Carbon Market Bill adds momentum. This said, national policymakers will have to clarify how REDD+ will interact with Blue Carbon project development, especially concerning mangroves. As discussed in Section 1.2.2 and the complementary report “Belize Carbon Market Infrastructure Needs Assessment,” the Government could explicitly establish separate reference levels for mangroves. Currently, mangroves are included in the national REDD+ framework and the national Zero Forest Reference Level (FRL), which assumes a balance between emissions and removals for forests, suggesting there is no net deforestation or loss. The Zero FRL’s focus on net removals of CO2 risks failing to incentivize results-based payments for mangrove conservation despite the material threats to mangroves from coastal development. By establishing a distinct subnational level FRL for mangroves outside of REDD+, Belize could reduce threats to mangroves, and support conservation actions that generate carbon credits. 3.5 ANALYSIS OF PILLAR 3 CHAPTER ACHIEVEMENTS I Belize has an extensive Blue Economy Strategy that outlines specific actions concerning the II country’s governance framework, additional incentives for Blue Economy development, and 1 resource mobilization. The country has demonstrated dedication to enhancing its blue 2 ecosystems using diverse financial instruments. The introduction of the Blue Bond in 2021 has 3 proven a fruitful financial avenue. The ongoing development of Project Finance for Permanence 4 promises to further bolster efforts through results-based payments. Organizations such as the III Protected Areas Conservation Trust (PACT) and the Belize Fund for a Sustainable Future play A crucial roles in mobilizing funding and overseeing Blue Carbon projects. The drafting of the Climate Change and Carbon Market Initiatives Bill is a promising measure to accelerate Belize’s efforts to secure additional climate finance. AREAS FOR IMPROVEMENT This section identifies areas for improvement to enhance Belize’s Blue Carbon readiness. The areas are detailed below and, where relevant, are linked to specific recommendations provided in the final section of this report. BELIZE: FINANCE (PILLAR 3) A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 99 • A well-defined carbon market bill is • Conservation of the protected areas crucial for the future viability of Blue system through PACT’s activities partially Carbon projects as an alternative relies tourism fees and commissions funding source. Therefore, the bill from cruise ships, which incentivizes the should consider the recommendations growth of the cruise ship industry and in this report and the Belize CMI Needs could bring significant environmental Assessment to enhance the framework. damage. Therefore, PACT should [Recommendation 2, Pillar 3] seek alternative funding sources that do not cause environmental harm. • Although the Blue Economy Development, [Recommendation 5, Pillar 3] Policy, Strategy, and Implementation Plan presents a path to enhance the country’s • The approach to managing Blue Blue Economy, it should establish clear Carbon ecosystems should foster deadlines for each objective and details greater community involvement, on how funding will be mobilized for each which can assure that decisions fully objective. The Policy should also clarify consider local needs and perspectives. how the proposed incentive packages will [Recommendation 6, Pillar 3] function. [Recommendation 1, Pillar 3] • Belize should stick with its financial strategy to move away from grant- CHAPTER dependent programs. [Recommendations 3 and 4, Pillar 3] I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY OCEANA BELIZE BELIZE: 100 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT FINANCE (PILLAR 3) CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY REGINA SANCHEZ SASSO BELIZE: RECOMMENDATIONS A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 101 4 RECOMMENDATIONS PHOTO BY OCEANA BELIZE CHAPTER This section presents specific recommendations for Belize to achieve readiness in line with the Blue Carbon I II Readiness Framework (BCRF). 1 2 3 Recommendations are categorized by Pillar and numbered for clarity, but can be pursued in any 4 order, allowing for adaptable and efficient progress. Each recommendation is accompanied by a timeframe (short-, mid-, or long-term), a reference to relevant checklists provided in the BCRF, III and specific actionable steps that Belize can take towards achieving the recommendations. A These timeframes reflect the scope and complexity of each recommendation and can help prioritize actions based on overall goals, by indicating how much time would be required to address each recommendation effectively. BELIZE: 102 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT RECOMMENDATIONS 4.1 PILLAR 1: DATA AND ANALYTICS RECOMMENDATION 1 Leverage recent data and enhance existing data collection efforts to S M L MID-TERM inform national inventories and → Refer to Checklists 2 and 3 of the BCRF. adaptive management strategies. Steps to Accomplish: • Leverage existing collaborations between UBERI and the Forestry Department to expand annual mangrove assessments by establishing permanent sampling sites on the Belizean mainland, integrated into the National Forest Monitoring System. • Integrate data on mangrove SOC and dead organic matter (Morrissette et al., 2023) into the next GHG Inventory. Work towards integration of seagrass data when available. • Continue with current plans to integrate guidance from the 2013 Wetlands Supplement into the next GHG Inventory. • Develop a national strategy for long-term monitoring of BCEs – align with the proposed blue economy CHAPTER monitoring center. I II 1 RECOMMENDATION 2 Address data gaps by building 2 capacity for mapping and long-term 3 S M L LONG-TERM monitoring of seagrass and salt 4 → Refer to Checklists 2 and 3 of the BCRF. marsh ecosystems in Belize. III A Steps to Accomplish: • Collaborate with UBERI to expand existing seagrass monitoring efforts, particularly at Turneffe Atoll, into a national-scale program. • Conduct updated mapping of national seagrass extent and develop a historic database to assess degradation rates. • Begin mapping salt marshes based on confirmed presence, integrating these efforts into the broader strategy for monitoring BCEs. • Foster collaboration between government agencies, academic institutions, and NGOs to strengthen expertise and resources dedicated to coastal ecosystem monitoring. BELIZE: RECOMMENDATIONS A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 103 RECOMMENDATION 3 Develop a user-friendly, centralized data collection platform for S M L MID-TERM accessible and transparent data on → Refer to Checklists 2 and 3 of the BCRF. Belize’s BCEs. Steps to Accomplish: • Consider leveraging the monitoring framework for a Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification system (MRV) as a basis for this collection platform. • Develop a reporting protocol to ensure data from regular monitoring, and one-time monitoring efforts, is reported to the collection platform. PHOTO BY REGINA SANCHEZ SASSO CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A BELIZE: 104 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT RECOMMENDATIONS 4.2 PILLAR 2: POLICY & INSTITUTIONS RECOMMENDATION 1 The NDC tracking tool must detail NDC commitment progress and S M L SHORT-TERM provide more comprehensive → Refer to Checklist 5.1 of the BCRF. information on achievements. Steps to Accomplish: • Create guidelines establishing the frequency and designate the responsible agencies for updating the information in the NDC tracking tool. • Incorporate charts and visualizations into the tracking tool to present results and completed projects. This will improve clarity and communication of progress and achievements. • Determine whether the ICAT tool, currently under development, will operate alongside the NDC tracking tool or replace it. If both systems are to be used, they should be synchronized to avoid inconsistencies. • Provide detailed information on the extent of mangrove land protected through the designation of CHAPTER remaining public lands within the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System as mangrove reserves. I II RECOMMENDATION 2 Provide further resources to 1 the Forest and Environment 2 S M L MID-TERM Departments to enhance the 3 staff capacity enforcement of the Mangroves Regulation. 4 → Refer to Checklist 5.2 of the BCRF. III A Steps to Accomplish: • Improve the exchange of information among agencies to ensure they remain informed about issued and denied permits. • Incorporate clear deadlines, detail funding mobilization, and clarify the function of the proposed incentive packages in the Blue Economy Development, Policy, Strategy and Action Plan. • Evaluate the economic and human resources needed to effectively comply with the Mangroves Regulations. • The Mangroves Regulations could introduce co-responsibility for landowners when mangroves are cleared, and the land is sold. BELIZE: RECOMMENDATIONS A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 105 RECOMMENDATION 3 Enact the Coastal Zone Management Act and Integrated S M L MID-TERM Coastal Zone Management Plan into law as aimed in the Blue Bond. Steps to Accomplish: • Grant the CZMAI legal authority. RECOMMENDATION 4 Implement the Blue Economy Gender Sensitive Skills Gap S M L MID-TERM Analysis, Needs Assessment, and Competence Assessment as outlined in the Blue Economy Development Policy, Strategy, and Implementation Plan. CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY NACOR BOLAÑOS BELIZE: 106 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT RECOMMENDATIONS 4.3 PILLAR 3: FINANCE RECOMMENDATION 1 To effectively enhance the country’s blue economy, the Blue Economy S M L SHORT-TERM Development, Policy, Strategy and Action plan should incorporate clear deadlines, detail funding → Refer to Checklist 9.6 of the BCRF. mobilization, and clarify the function of the proposed incentive packages. Steps to Accomplish: • Assign realistic and achievable deadlines for each objective. • Create a detailed plan to mobilize funds, ensuring transparency and accountability for each objective. • Design clear guidelines for the proposed incentive packages. CHAPTER PHOTO BY REGINA SANCHEZ SASSO I II 1 2 3 4 III A BELIZE: RECOMMENDATIONS A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 107 RECOMMENDATION 2 Since the Carbon Market Bill is under development, Belize should S M L SHORT-TERM consider addressing the following → Refer to Checklist 9.6 of the BCRF. components in the Bill. Components to Consider: • Define the link between the national carbon market and Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, laying out minimum rules by: – Specifying the authority responsible for issuing letters of authorization. – Outlining the procedures for authorizing Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes. – Empowering the Minister to enact an Article 6 framework through delegated legislation. • Distinguish the applicable rules to Article 6-compatible interventions and VCM projects. • Identify the circumstances under which the government will engage in credit transactions. • Determine the core principles to be followed by benefit-sharingplans. • Specify how REDD+ and blue carbon projects will interact. • Detail engagement procedures for public-private partnerships and community involvement in projects. CHAPTER RECOMMENDATION 3 Create a blue economy observatory to assess the ocean GDP. This will I S M L MID-TERM help Belize move away from grant- II dependent programs by providing 1 2 information on blue economy 3 → Refer to Checklist 9.5 of the BCRF. opportunities, enabling informed 4 policies for sustainable growth. III A Steps to Accomplish: • Define scope and objectives of the observatory. • Determine the agency responsible of the observatory. • Develop a methodology for assessing ocean GDP. • Use findings to guide policy decisions. BELIZE: 108 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT RECOMMENDATIONS RECOMMENDATION 4 Explore additional financial S M L MID-TERM mechanisms as biodiversity credits and public-private partnerships. → Refer to Checklist 9.5 of the BCRF. Steps to Accomplish: • Research the potential of biodiversity credits and study the recent Plan Vivo standard, the upcoming Verra standard and the Colombian case study and protocol. • Evaluate using a jurisdictional approach that promotes the participation of private landowners, communities, and protected areas (for further information, refer to the Belize CMI Need Assessment). • Create a framework for biodiversity credits and public-private partnerships. • Pilot a project to test the effectiveness of biodiversity credits. • Pilot a public-private partnership of a blue carbon project through a jurisdictional approach. RECOMMENDATION 5 Belize should raise the commissions from cruise ship passengers and tourism fees to increase revenue CHAPTER S M L MID-TERM sources without expanding cruise I ship capacity. II 1 Steps to Accomplish: 2 • Analyze the financial impact of increasing the 15% commission from cruise ship passenger fees and the 3 existing conservation fees charged to tourists. 4 • Adjust the fees and commissions to maximize revenue without deterring tourists. III • Implement the new fee structure with clear communication. A • Monitor the financial outcomes of the new fees and commissions. BELIZE: RECOMMENDATIONS A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 109 RECOMMENDATION 6 Consider establishing a Blue Carbon Program Community Involvement S M L LONG-TERM Mechanism including benefit sharing, to facilitate community participation in decision-making → Refer to Checklist 9.4.e of the BCRF. processes concerning blue carbon ecosystems. Steps to Accomplish: • Establish a working group representing all key stakeholders (including women and indigenous communities). • Create a framework outlining the objectives, roles, and responsibilities of the Community Involvement Mechanism. • Hold meetings and workshops with local communities to gather input and build consensus on the program. • Assess the effectiveness of the Mechanism through monitoring and evaluation. CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY OCEANA BELIZE BELIZE: 110 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT BIBLIOGRAPHY III. BIBLIOGRAPHY Adaptation Fund. (n.d.). Home. the Humid Tropics of Latin America and the https://www.adaptation-fund.org/ Caribbean (CATHALAC)/Regional Visualization & Monitoring System (SERVIR). 28 pp. http:// Alvarez, et al. (2022). Report on formalized maps. cathalac. org/Downloads/data/bz/bz_ reporting protocols between institutions, mangroves_1980-2010_highres.pdf. reporting templates, and the appointment of an MRV platform. 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Belize Collect Earth/Open Foris Land Use and Land Use Change Assessment National Assembly of Belize. 2021. “Blue Bonds Loan Protocol. Belmopan City: Government of Belize. Act 2021.” https://www.nationalassembly.gov.bz/ I https://forest.gov.bz/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/ wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Act-No-28-of-2021- II Resource-Belize-Collect-Earth-Protocol-2019_ Blue-Bonds-Loan.pdf 1 v1.pdf 2 National Assembly of Belize. 2023. “Climate Change 3 Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Fisheries, the and Carbon Market Initiatives Bill 2023.” https:// 4 Environment and Sustainable Development. www.nationalassembly.gov.bz/wp-content/ III 2016. “National Biodiversity Strategy Action Plan uploads/2023/10/Climate-Change-and-Carbon- A (2016).” Belize. Belmopan, Belize. https://www. 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(n.d.). “Belize to develop world’s first and%20Valuation%20of%20Adaptation%20 fully Coastal and Marine Project Finance for Options%20in%20Coastal-Marine%20 Permanence (PFP) Initiative.” https://www.wwfca. Ecosystems.pdf. org/?375845/Belize-to-develop-worlds-first- CHAPTER fully-Coastal-and-Marine-Project-Finance-for- Short Ft, Carruthers Tjr, Van Tussenbroek B And Permanence-PFP-Initiative Zieman J. 2010. Halophila baillonii. IUCN I -International Union for Conservation of Nature, World Bank. 2023. “Unlocking Blue Carbon II 2012. IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Development: Investment Readiness Framework 1 Version 2012. for Governments. © Washington, DC: 2 World Bank. http://hdl.handle. 3 Stoddart, D. 1962. “Three Caribbean atolls: Turneffe net/10986/40334 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO 4 Island, Lighthouse Reef and Glover’s Reef, British III Honduras.” Atoll Research Bulletin, 87, 1-137. World Bank. 2022. “Grant Reporting and Monitoring (GRM) Report.” Belize REDD+ A Turneffe Atoll Trust. 2021. “The Economic Value Readiness Preparation Project. https://www. of Turneffe Atoll, Executive Summary.” http:// forestcarbonpartnership.org/system/files/ www.turneffeatollmarinereserve.org/app/ documents/grm_completion_report_belize_final. webroot/userfiles/214/File/Turneffe%20 pdf Atoll%20Valuation%20Study%20PDF%20-%20 Executive%20Summary.pdf BELIZE: 114 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT BIBLIOGRAPHY CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY WORLD BANK BELIZE: APPENDICES A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 115 A. APPENDICES CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY JULIANA CASTAÑO ISAZA BELIZE: 116 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT APPENDICES APPENDIX 1 DECISION TREE Blue Carbon Readiness Framework Welcome to the Blue Carbon Readiness Framework - a decision tree approach to assessing and identifying steps in pursuing blue carbon readiness within your country. Starting with Pillar 1, move your way through the tree using the below legend as a guide. Pay special attention to ‘Checklists’ which may correspond to a specific action/step. Checklists provide in-depth descriptions of steps to continue along your journey to readiness (refer to Appendix 1.) complementary actions can be completed in tandem with moving onto the next section of the tree. PILLAR PILLAR PILLAR 1 2 3 DATA & ANALYTICS POLICY & INSTITUTIONS FINANCE NDC COMMITMENTS LEVERAGE BLUE A B & IMPLEMENTATION CARBON FINANCE CHAPTER EVALUATE ASSESS GHG BLUE CARBON INVENTORIES ACTIONS I II 1 2 CO₂ 3 4 III A BELIZE: APPENDICES A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 117 PILLAR 1 A B 2 3 1 PILLAR CO₂ DATA & ANALYTICS B ASSESS GHG INVENTORIES PATHWAY ACTIONS/ STEPS Are BCEs included in your country’s NO Use the Wetland Supplement and Tier 1 default GHG inventory? values (or Tier 2/3 depending on available data) to determine carbon stock values for your country’s BCE(s). Refer to Checklist 3 for steps YES and guidelines. CO₂ COMPLETE SECTION Improve your GHG Inventory via integration of WS13/R19 1 GHG • Identify where bottleneck(s) are – e.g., soil INVENTORIES Does your country apply the carbon data 2013 Wetlands Supplement NO • Review Checklist 3 for ways to improve your (WS13)/2019 Refinement (R19)? existing inventory ACTIONS COMPLEMENTARY If you are engaging YES in REDD+ CHAPTER • Consider developing a REDD+ FRL/FREL I COUNTRIES REDD+ with Blue Carbon integration • Decide to build a separate blue carbon II framework (using synergies) Has your country submitted a NO Forest Reference Level (FRL)/ 1 Forest Reference Emission Levels YES • Review Checklist 4 (FREL)? 2 2 REDD+ • Confirm and iterate consistency between FOREST your Forest Reference Levels (FRL)/ Forest 3 SECTOR PRIVATE REFERENCE Reference Emission Levels (FREL) and your LEVELS GHG inventory 4 III A STEPS NO ACTIONS/ • Strengthen calculated carbon stocks USE RESULTS FROM by substituting regional/ local values COMPLETED ACTION/ in place of Tier 1 default values GHG STEPS TO: • Compare calculated carbon stock INVENTORY values to existing activity data, and IS DONE! use results to improve your GHG YOU CAN MOVE inventory ON TO PILLAR 2 • Integrate calculated carbon stocks into your FRL/FREL while improving inventory capacities BELIZE: 118 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT APPENDICES PILLAR 1 A B 2 3 1 PILLAR CO₂ DATA & ANALYTICS B ASSESS GHG INVENTORIES PATHWAY ACTIONS/ STEPS Are BCEs included in your country’s NO Use the Wetland Supplement and Tier 1 default GHG inventory? values (or Tier 2/3 depending on available data) to determine carbon stock values for your country’s BCE(s). Refer to Checklist 3 for steps YES and guidelines. CO₂ COMPLETE SECTION Improve your GHG Inventory via integration of WS13/R19 1 GHG • Identify where bottleneck(s) are – e.g., soil INVENTORIES Does your country apply the carbon data 2013 Wetlands Supplement NO • Review Checklist 3 for ways to improve your (WS13)/2019 Refinement (R19)? existing inventory ACTIONS COMPLEMENTARY If you are engaging YES in REDD+ CHAPTER I • Consider developing a REDD+ FRL/FREL COUNTRIES REDD+ with Blue Carbon integration • Decide to build a separate blue carbon II framework (using synergies) Has your country submitted a NO 1 Forest Reference Level (FRL)/ Forest Reference Emission Levels YES • Review Checklist 4 2 (FREL)? 2 REDD+ • Confirm and iterate consistency between 3 FOREST your Forest Reference Levels (FRL)/ Forest SECTOR PRIVATE REFERENCE Reference Emission Levels (FREL) and your 4 LEVELS GHG inventory III A STEPS NO ACTIONS/ • Strengthen calculated carbon stocks USE RESULTS FROM by substituting regional/ local values COMPLETED ACTION/ in place of Tier 1 default values GHG STEPS TO: • Compare calculated carbon stock INVENTORY values to existing activity data, and IS DONE! use results to improve your GHG YOU CAN MOVE inventory ON TO PILLAR 2 • Integrate calculated carbon stocks into your FRL/FREL while improving inventory capacities BELIZE: APPENDICES A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 119 2 PILLAR CONSIDER | • Turning this procedural Extending the scope of milestone into a target, POLICY & INSTITUTIONS your NDC to account for e.g., by [Year] or when BCE(s) submitting the second NDC COMMITMENTS & Biennial Transparency • Make sure your GHG Report, [Country] will use IMPLEMENTATION 1 inventory can accurately the WS13 and account for all report emissions and anthropogenic carbon stock removals from BCE(s). If your changes in [BC Habitat] and country cannot yet do this, [BC Habitat 2]. PATHWAY you can still acknowledge the mitigation impact of BC 1 Are emissions and interventions → Move to Box removals from 2 below. IDENTIFY BCE(s) included in COMMITMENTS your country’s NDC? FOCUS ON | • Halt and reverse all ACTIONS/ STEPS YES Acknowledging degradation in [BC Habitat] YES NO mitigation impact • Restore [#] hectares of 2 of BC interventions [BC Habitat] Formulating stand-alone FOCUS ON | 1. Consider inclusion (action) targets: Accounting for Emissions in economy-wide or Reduction/Removals sector-wide (AFOLU) targets [Review Checklists 5 and 6] and/or 2. Include action-specific target COMPLETE SECTION Does your county FOR REDD+ COUNTRIES such as “restore x hectares of have a REDD+ Build reference levels for mangroves by [date]”. framework that conservation aligned with Synchronize and refine with existing policy instruments beyond integrates BCE(s)? REDD+ targets, and define mitigation (and/or climate change), notably National Adaptation sequestration targets Plans NBSAPs for restoration ACTIONS COMPLEMENTARY CHAPTER If you are engaging in REDD+ Review integration of BCE(s) in your REDD+ policy framework 2 IMPLEMENT NEXT STEPS 2. Develop a bespoke Blue 7. create a benefit sharing YOUR NDC Carbon Strategy arrangements 3. Work through MSP and ICZM 8. Policy reforms for BCEs I 1. Where feasible, prepare a 4. Focus on land tenure and conservation, restoration, or COUNTRIES REDD+ cost-benefit analysis for community involvement sustainable management (NBS). II conservation and restoration 5. Tackle bottlenecks to NO options (use CWON and other Refer to Checklist 7 for a detailed Do you have an NDC datasets for valuation) implementation 1 6. Design the plan with Section 4 list of next steps Implementation Plan? NO (Financing) in mind 2 YES Set out investment parameters Promote private sector initiatives 3 ADDRESS THE and clear guidance for the private and create institutional structures PRIVATE SECTOR: SECTOR PRIVATE sector engagement (cf. Section 4: for private sector and community 4 Financing, see below) involvement (planning, decision making, implementation III FOCUS ON | Design 1. Identifying and using or • Technical governance (task force / A of Bespoke Governance synchronizing with parallel technical unit) for FRL calculation, Framework governance frameworks on MRV, and other Does your plan adaptation/resilience, private • Institutions & policy governance STEPS NO ACTIONS/ [Review Checklist 8] incorporate appropriate sector initiatives, technology • Financial governance (receiving NO institutional/governance FOR REDD+ COUNTRIES transfer, and more. and distributing funding in line frameworks? Checking if your REDD+ framework 2. Developing an institutional/ with benefit sharing arrangements) provides key structures (to be governance framework: • Community governance models to adjusted as needed) drive implementation YES • Use input data to inform biennial • Seek synergies with policy USE RESULTS NDC reporting and accounting actions across the board YOU CAN FROM COMPLETED • Design commitments for (SDG focus) MOVE ON TO ACTION/ STEPS TO: subsequent rounds of NDCs PILLAR 3 and long-term plans BELIZE: 120 A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT APPENDICES PILLAR 1 A B 2 3 3 PILLAR FOCUS ON | Developing a framework that integrates with FINANCE the implementation plan LEVERAGE BLUE CARBON FINANCE 1. Scrutinizing existing funding flows to benefit/disadvantage Blue PATHWAY Carbon investments 2. Conduct Stock-take of financing approaches (including the use of mechanisms such as Article 6 and jurisdictional REDD+/RBCF) and sources/instruments (concessional and non-concessional, considering Does your country innovative business models, see ACTIONS/ STEPS have a blue further below) carbon finance 3. Set out stable investment and investment parameters for the private sector, framework in place? including with respect to carbon finance: Define and allocate carbon YES NO rights, create mandates for carbon trading, and present models for community involvement and COMPLETE SECTION benefit sharing FOCUS ON | Accessing Grant CONSIDER | Operationalizing Funding in line with survey above – Have you leverage tools such as: operationalized NO Accessing grant funding for capacity-building specific funding tools? ACTIONS COMPLEMENTARY • Concessional instruments, including and related needs, namely: CHAPTER blended finance instruments • Design and operationalize the governance and philanthropy YES framework • Inventory work • Dedicated sovereign and/or corporate • BCEs mapping, carbon stock assessments debt finance instruments (blue loans, • Preparation of a pipeline of shovel-ready blue bonds) I projects • Blue infrastructure /NBS finance • Conceptualization of blue infrastructure COUNTRIES REDD+ II finance • Business models that stack multiple revenue streams 1 Does your country • Results Based Carbon Finance (RBCF) 2 intend to use carbon • Blue carbon project finance markets as a means of (carbon markets) 3 investment? SECTOR PRIVATE Review Checklist 9 for examples and 4 YES NO guidelines on leveraging investment. III A 1 B STEPS NO ACTIONS/ CONSIDER | • Using Article 6 of the Paris Climate Agreement; 1 A 2 • Allowing Voluntary Carbon Markets with corresponding adjustments YOU ARE READY TO ACCESS CLIMATE & CARBON FINANCE! 3 BELIZE: APPENDICES A BLUE CARBON READINESS ASSESSMENT 121 CHAPTER I II 1 2 3 4 III A PHOTO BY WORLD BANK BELIZE A BLUE CARBON 2024 READINESS ASSESSMENT