The Pacific Observatory Socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 in Solomon Islands Insights from High Frequency Phone Surveys, September 2022 The Pacific Observatory is a World Bank initiative to increase data availability and quality and to promote evidence-based policy decisions. The development objective of the Pacific Observatory is… The Pacific To improve welfare for the poor and vulnerable in Key findings Papua New Guinea and the Pacific Island Countries Observatory in through expanding socio-economic information for better data-driven policymaking. Solomon Islands This presentation utilizes data from the Pacific Observatory’s high frequency phone surveys in Solomon Islands… To detail socio-economic indicators related to: - Employment and incomes - Community trust, food insecurity and coping strategies - Health care access and COVID-19 Reopening after COVID-19 waves Context: - A 2022 COVID-19 community outbreak and the lingering effects from the civil unrest in 2021 dampened economic activity early in 2022, with a 4.5 percent fall in real GDP in 2022. Background - With the reopening of the borders and planned investment in infrastructure, a return to real GDP growth, of around 2.6 percent, is expected in 2023. High Frequency Phone Surveys: - The fourth round (February 2022) interviewed 2671 households and found that employment had deteriorated, largely because of COVID-19 restrictions. - The fifth round (September 2022) interviewed 2,507 households at a time when restrictions had been lifted. Employment and Incomes Employment was impacted by COVID-19 restrictions but has fully recovered following the easing of covid- related restrictions. Household incomes remain under pressure. Coping with the pandemic Key findings Most households still needed to use strategies to fulfill basic needs, but there are signs of improvement. Food insecurity remains an issue. People had mixed views about whether public trust and security deteriorated around the time of the 2021 riots. Health Vaccine hesitancy remains strong, even though more people are now vaccinated. Survey timing - before, during and after the COVID-19 outbreak 100 700 R3 R4 R5 People vaccinated per hundred / Stringency 90 600 New cases per million, smoothed 80 70 500 60 400 Index 50 300 40 30 200 20 100 10 0 0 1-May-21 1-Aug-21 1-Nov-21 1-Feb-22 1-May-22 1-Aug-22 1-Nov-22 Round dates People vaccinated per hundred (LHS) Stringency index (LHS) New reported cases smoothed per million (RHS) Note: “people vaccinated” is relative to the total population, not those 18 years and older as is reported in subsequent charts. Note: the stringency index is a composite measure based on nine indicators including: school closures; workplace closures; and travel bans. The stringency index can take values between 0 and 100, with 100 signifying the most stringent restrictions. Note: Round one and Round two are excluded as very few COVID-19 cases had been recorded in Solomon Islands at that time. Source: Pacific Community’s Pacific Data Hub; Solomon Islands Ministry of Health and Medical Services; and Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Employment recovered Employment Household incomes remain under pressure and incomes Households more optimistic about the economy Proportion of people that are working Employment has 90% recovered... 80% 70% 60% Percentage of population 60% 57% Six in ten people said that COVID-19 50% 47% restrictions were the reason they 40% stopped working in February 2022. 34% 30% Employment rates in September 2022 20% were similar in Honiara, other urban areas, and rural areas. 10% 0% December 2020 July 2021 February 2022 September 2022 Note: The figures above represent cross-sectional data for adults (aged 18+). Note: Vertical lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. Source: Round two (December 2020), three (July 2021), four (February 2022) and five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. …because of informal work Proportion of people that are working by formality Proportion of people that are working by sector 60% 60% 50% 50% Percentage of population Percentage of population 41% 41% 40% 40% 34% 34% 30% 30% 28% 28% 19% 20% 14% 20% 17% 17% 22% 16% 16% 12% 15% 10% 13% 10% 9% 4% 2% 4% 0% 0% December 2020 July 2021 February 2022 September 2022 December 2020 July 2021 February 2022 September 2022 Formal Informal Agriculture Industry Services Note: The figures above represent cross-sectional data for adults (aged 18+). Note: The figures above represent cross-sectional data for adults (aged 18+). Note: Vertical lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. Note: Vertical lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. Source: Round two (December 2020), round three (July 2021), round four (February 2022), and round five Source: Round two (December 2020), round three (July 2021), round four (February 2022), and round (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. Household incomes remain under pressure More than a third of Agricultural income fell Incomes from non-farm households said their for many households. businesses were more income fell in the six likely to fall than to rise. months to September. Change in total household income in the six Change in expected agricultural income Change in non-farm business income months to August 2022 compared to last growing season a 12% 15% 43% 28% 46% 57% 28% 45% 26% Increased Stayed the same Reduced / stopped Increased Same as usual Less then usual / no income Increased Stayed the same Reduced / stopped Source: Round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high Source: Round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high Source: Round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. frequency phone surveys. frequency phone surveys. Households are more optimistic about the economy Proportion of population that is ‘very worried’ about Households' economic outlook for one year ahead their finances over the next month 90% 60% 80% 76% Percentage of households 70% 71% 50% Percentage of households 44% 60% 61% 40% 41% 50% 51% 32% 40% 30% 26% 30% 27% 27% 20% 22% 22% 20% 14% 13% 10% 8% 10% 10% 0% December 2020 July 2021 February 2022 September 2022 0% December 2020 July 2021 February 2022 September 2022 Better Same Worse Note: The figures above represent cross-sectional data. Note: The figures above represent cross-sectional data. Note: Vertical lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. Note: Vertical lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. Source: Round two (December 2020), round three (July 2021), round four (February 2022), and round five Source: Round two (December 2020), round three (July 2021), round four (February 2022), and round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. Staple food access is high Community trust, food security, and Fewer households needed to use coping strategies coping strategies Food insecurity is an ongoing problem Mixed opinions on community trust and security issues hello Change in community trust compared to six months Change in community security by issue, between July ago 2021 and February 2022 60% 100% Percentage of population 50% 80% Percentage of population 40% 38% 60% 34% 30% 31% 24% 40% 22% 20% 20% 20% 14% 12% 10% 0% Community Theft Damage to Alcohol & Police Land disputes Domestic 0% trust & property drug abuse intimidation abuse December 2020 July 2021 Febraury 2022 September 2022 relations Worsened Improved Worsened Stayed the same Improved Note: The figures above represent cross-sectional data for adults (aged 18+). Note: The figures above represent data for adults (aged 18+). Note: Vertical lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. Source: Round four (February 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. Source: Round two (December 2020), round three (July 2021), round four (February 2022), and round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. Most households could buy staple foods when they needed to Households attempting to purchase staple food items Of households attempting to buy staple food items, in September 2022 share that was able 100% 100% Percentage of households 80% 95% Percentage of households 60% 90% 40% 85% 20% 80% 0% National rural National rural National rural Honiara other urban other urban other urban Honiara Honiara 75% 70% Staple starches Staple protein Fruits & vegetables July 2021 February 2022 September 2022 Yes, able to purchase No, not able to purchase Did not try Staple starches Staple protein Fruits & vegetables Source: Round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. Note: The figures above represent cross-sectional data. Note: Vertical lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals Source: Round three (July 2021), round four (February 2022), and round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. But food insecurity remains a common problem hello Household food insecurity (September 2022) Households food insecurity instances in the past 4 40% weeks and past 12 months, to September 2022 80% Percentage of households Percentage of households 30% 60% 20% 40% 37% 20% 10% 21% 18% 11% 0% Worried not Unable to eat Ate only a few Skipped a Ate less than Ran out of Hungry but no Went without 0% have enough healthy food kinds of food meal though you food eat eating a whole In the last 4 weeks In the last 12 months food should day Severe food insecurity Moderate food insecurity In the last 4 weeks In the last 12 months Note: The Food Insecurity Experience Scale defines severe food insecurity as going “without eating for a Note: Vertical lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. whole day because of a lack of money or resources.” The FIES defines moderate food insecurity as a time when Source: Round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. a household/individual “ate less than they thought they should because of a lack of money or resources”. Source: Round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. Fewer households used coping strategies to fulfill basic needs hello Sustainable coping strategies Unsustainable coping strategies Total unsustainable coping strategies Total sustainable coping strategies Reduced food consumption Found more work Purchase on credit Borrowed from friends/family Reduced non-food consumption Spend from savings Aid from friends/family Sold assets Delayed payments Sold harvest in advance Reduce the number of children attending school 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of households Percentage of households July 2021 September 2022 July 2021 September 2022 Note: The figures above represent cross-sectional data Note: The figures above represent cross-sectional data Note: Horizontal lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals Note: Horizontal lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals Source: Round three (July 2021) and round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone Source: Round three (July 2021) and round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. surveys. Some health care access issues Health care access and Vaccine hesitancy remains a problem COVID-19 No easy way to address vaccine hesitancy Some households 30% Types of care needed and accessed by households in the previous month have had trouble 25% accessing healthcare Percentage of households 20% The share of people that needed 15% preventative care, but were unable to get it, was lower in September 2022 10% than in February 2022. 5% No statistical difference in percentages for “not accessed” for routine care. 0% Feb 2022 Sep 2022 Feb 2022 Sep 2022 Feb 2022 Sep 2022 Urgent Routine Preventative Accessed Not accessed Source: Round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. Reasons for vaccine hesitancy in September 2022 COVID-19 vaccine side 70% effects worry many 60% unvaccinated people Percentage of vaccine hesitant adults 50% 40% Side effects have long been the most common reason for COVID-19 vaccine 30% hesitancy, both in rural and urban areas. 20% An estimated nine percent of adults 10% were vaccine hesitant. 0% Side effects Don't trust Don't think It's against my vaccines vaccines will religion work Source: Round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. Notes: Vertical lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. Vaccine hesitant respondents are those that are unvaccinated and not planning to get vaccinated, or unvaccinated and unsure if they will get vaccinated. Groups that could change people's minds about the It may be hard to COVID-19 vaccine 100% change the minds of 90% unvaccinated people 80% 70% Percentage of population 63% 60% People who were hesitant but more 50% openminded are likely now vaccinated... 41% 40% …but those who remain unvaccinated 30% have firmly held views regarding 20% vaccination. 15% 20% 15% 14% 14% 10% 8% 9% 0% Jul 2021 Feb 2022 Sep 22 Family and friends Health workers Religious leaders Source: Round three (July 2021), Round four (February 2022) and Round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. Note: Vertical lines represent 95 percent confidence intervals. Few vaccine hesitant people would support vaccine incentives Proportion of vaccine hesitant respondents who think Proportion of vaccine hesitant respondents that that vaccine incentives are a good idea would be convinced to get vaccinated by different numbers of 10kg bags of rice 80% 29% 60% 71% 40% 20% 0% 1 2 4 5 6 Would not get vaccinated even if offered 7 or more ten kilogram bags of Yes No rice Note: The question underpinning this chart is “Last year, a group of businesses gave bags of rice to Note: This was only asked of respondents who weren’t planning to get vaccinated or weren’t sure whether some people who had been vaccinated against COVID-19, to thank them for making the community they’d get vaccinated, but who thought the vaccine incentives used by businesses was a good idea. safer. Do you think this sounds like a good idea?”. This question was asked of respondents who Source: Round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. weren’t planning to get vaccinated or weren’t sure whether they’d get vaccinated. Source: Round five (September 2022) of the World Bank high frequency phone surveys. Acknowledgments and further information Core Team: Darcey Johnson, Ritika Khandelwal, Darian Naidoo*, Chris Wokker, Kexin Zhang, and Shuwen Zheng Extended team: Shohei Nakamura, Jeffrey Woodham, Mia Bowyer Task Team Leaders: Utz Pape* and David Gould Practice Manager: Rinku Murgai *For inquiries please contact Utz Pape (upape@worldbank.org) and Darian Naidoo (dnaidoo@worldbank.org) The team gratefully acknowledges the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, as well as the Korea Trust Fund for Economic and Peace-Building Transitions for financing the data collection and analysis References Solomon Islands High Frequency Phone Survey On COVID-19, Results From Round 1 https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents- reports/documentdetail/167041607012187892/solomon-islands-high-freqency-survey-on-covid-19-first- round-results COVID-19 in Solomon Islands - Economic and Social Impacts: Insights from the January-February 2022 Round of High Frequency Phone Surveys https://documents1.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents- reports/documentdetail/099605007192231549 Annex: survey methods High attrition was expected across rounds. To maintain an appropriate Dates and sample sizes of rounds Proportion of respondents from each sample size, new households were wealth decile, rounds one to five added in each round to replace lost HFPS R1 HFPS R2 HFPS R3 HFPS R4 HFPS R5 DHS Share of observations (unweighted %) households. Date collected Household 45 40 sample size 35 Round one Jun/Jul 2020 2,665 Despite geographic quota targets, re- 30 25 Round two Dec 2020/Jan 2021 2,882 weighting was also necessary to 20 15 compensate for areas (and groups) Round three Jun/Jul 2021 2,503 10 where targets were not reached. Round four Jan/Feb 2022 2,671 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 August/September decile of wealth index Round five 2,507 Compensating factors for these 2022 Note: The yellow bars reflect that, if phone survey respondents perfectly differences were developed and Note: Bolded months are those when most data collection represented the wealth distribution, 10 percent of respondents would be from each wealth decile. included in the re-weighting occurred, and are the months used as the shorthand to refer to each round in this presentation. calculations.