W AT E R GLOBAL PRACTICE Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? Africa Region Water and Climate Policy Note Dominick de Waal and Mohamad Mahgoub Hamid May 2024 About the Water Global Practice Launched in 2014, the World Bank Group’s Water Global Practice brings together financing, knowledge, and implementation in one platform. By combining the Bank’s global knowledge with country investments, this model generates more firepower for transformational solutions to help countries grow sustainably. Please visit us at www.worldbank.org/water or follow us on X: @WorldBankWater. About GWSP This publication received the support of the Global Water Security & Sanitation Partnership (GWSP). GWSP is a multidonor trust fund administered by the World Bank’s Water Global Practice and supported by Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Austria’s Federal Ministry of Finance, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Denmark’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Netherlands’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Spain’s Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, U.K. International Development, and the U.S. Agency for International Development. Please visit us at www.worldbank.org/gwsp or follow us on X: @TheGwsp. Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? Africa Region Water and Climate Policy Note Dominick de Waal and Mohamad Mahgoub Hamid May 2024 © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and other information shown in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The citation of works authored by others does not mean the World Bank endorses the views expressed by those authors or the content of their works. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Please cite the work as follows: de Waal, Dominick, and Mohamad Mahgoub Hamid. 2024. “Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? Africa Region Water and Climate Policy Note” World Bank, Washington, DC. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights​@­worldbank.org. Cover design: Jean Franz, Franz and Company, Inc. Cover photo: Dominick de Waal / World Bank. Contents Acknowledgements iv Abstract 1 Introduction 2 Does Water Feature in the National Vision Documents? 5 How Does Water Feature in the NDCs? 8 Improvements to the Presentation of Water and Climate Priorities in National Visions and NDCs 12 Practical Ways Water Sector Actors Can Engage in Shaping National Planning Documents Going Forward 14 Conclusions 16 Appendix A: African Union Agenda 2063 17 Appendix B: Notes on Method 19 TABLES 1. Overview of Water Sector Priorities in National Vision Documents 6 2. Water-Related Adaptation and Mitigation Measures in NDCs 9 3. Top 5 Water-Specific Adaptation and Mitigation Measures Included in NDCs across SSA 11 A.1. African Union Agenda 2063 Aspirations and Goals 18 Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? iii Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the peer reviewers at the concept stage, Fan Zhang, Paavo Eliste, Edoardo Borgomeo (World Bank), and the peer reviewers at the decision stage, Fan Zhang, Christian Borja-Vega and Urmila Chatterjee (World Bank). Additional advice and guidance were provided by Holger Kray, Catherine Tovey, Iain G. Shuker, Fan Zhang, Aude-Sophie Rodella, Joy Busolo, Diego Juan Rodriguez, Claire Chase, Nishtha Mehta. Erin Ann Barrett provided editing support and managed the publication process. The authors are grateful to Vera Kehayova and Daniela Gutierrez Torres for their work on the CLEAR Water Dashboard which was used as a basis for the analysis of the water sector aspects of the NDCs. This publication received the support of the Global Water Security & Sanitation Partnership (GWSP). GWSP is a multidonor trust fund administered by the World Bank’s Water Global Practice and supported by Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Austria’s Federal Ministry of Finance, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Denmark’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Netherlands’ Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Spain’s Ministry of Economic Affairs and Digital Transformation, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, U.K. International Development, and the U.S. Agency for International Development. Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? iv Abstract Water management is foundational for development and climate adaptation. Investments in water not only improve health and wealth of nations but can also buffer the impacts of climate change. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is the most vulnerable region to climate change impacts. This policy note examines national development vision documents and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) documents across SSA to: (1) review the extent to which water and water related climate priorities feature in them; (2) propose substantive improvements to the presentation of water and water related climate priorities; and, (3) identify practical ways water sector actors can engage in shaping national planning documents going forward. The analysis shows that water and water-related climate actions are not consistently included in either national vision documents or NDCs across SSA. Most country’s vision documents (91 percent) aimed to improve access to water supply and sanitation (WSS) but only half of the visions aimed to expand irrigation and hydropower. Water resources management (WRM), though referenced in two thirds of the visions was poorly defined and only very few cases described institutional mechanisms for managing water. Water adaptation measures featured in all SSA countries’ NDCs but were often generic in nature without clear indicators or targets. For example, early warning systems (EWS) were included in over two thirds of NDCs but only a few countries were specific about when or how EWS would be set up. WRM measures in NDCs were even less specific than those included in national visions. Water related mitigation measures in NDCs were less frequently included than adaptation measures. For example, only a quarter of NDCs mentioned improving energy efficiency in WSS and only one country set a specific target to reduce energy intensity. As vision documents and NDCs get revised there is a window of opportunity to ensure that water and its subsectors (WSS, irrigation, hydropower and WRM) are presented with clear indicators and targets. Half of the countries in SSA will revise their visons in the 2020s and NDCs are revised every 5 years. Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 1 Introduction Water management is a cornerstone of both development and climate adaptation. Household access to water supply, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) is foundational to reducing the burden of water borne diseases and improving labor productivity, living standards and social equity. Water is also a critical input to improving agricultural productivity, to industrial processes, to generating and storing energy as well as to sustaining ecosystems and associated services. Over 90 percent of natural disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are water related (floods, landslides, storms, drought) with severe consequences for human life and health, employment, infrastructure and economic output. Governments around the world have an inescapable role in both harnessing the productive aspects of water and in managing the consequences of too much water, too little water and water pollution. Across SSA many basic aspects of water development are lagging targets and holding back economic growth. Only Mauritius and Botswana are on-track for universal access to safe drinking water and no countries in SSA are on-track for universal access to safely managed sanitation.1 SSA loses 5 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) annually (estimated at US$170 billion per year) because of a lack of water, contaminated water, or poor sanitation (International High-Level Panel on Water Investments for Africa 2023). Water supply and sanitation (WSS) services have not kept up with population growth across SSA. In the last two decades, there are 37 million more people in SSA without access to basic improved water and 247 million more without access to basic sanitation. More than half of global population growth by 2050 is expected to be in SSA. Rainfed agriculture accounts for 95 percent of agriculture in SSA. Nearly 60 percent of people in SSA pursue a wide range of rural livelihoods from pastoralism and agro-pastoralism in semi- arid areas, cereal and root-crop based farming systems in less marginal areas as well as a wide range of tree cropping across both drier and wetter areas. The contribution of agriculture to GDP across SSA—around 20 percent—has remained steady since the 1980s and understates its pivotal nature in supporting livelihoods as non-primary production aspects of agricultural value addition are captured under manufacturing and services contributions to GDP (World Bank 2016). For example, beyond just affecting agricultural output, in areas of SSA experiencing dry shocks overall employment has been shown to fall by 2.5 percent and while wet periods (not flooding) increase overall employment by 4 percentage points (Khan et al. 2023). Urban populations of SSA have doubled in the past two decades and will double again to over a billion by 2050 driving up demand for agricultural produce, for domestic and industrial water supply as well as the need for wastewater treatment. SSA’s 143 large cities generate half of the region’s GDP (Lall, Henderson, and Venables 2017). Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 2 Hydropower will play an essential role in meeting the growing energy needs of Africa and provide for a low-carbon development pathway. The SSA region has 38 GW of installed hydropower capacity and has huge potential to expand hydropower. Installed hydropower capacity in Africa could reach 100 GW by 2030 and hydropower potential could be as high as 1,750 GW. While accelerating progress towards development targets would make for healthier and wealthier economies across SSA it does not guarantee their resilience to climate change. With the world likely to miss the target of limiting emissions compatible with a 1.5°C global average temperature increase, climate adaptation has become central to coping with climate change. SSA is the most vulnerable region to climate change impacts under all climate scenarios above 1.5°C despite being the region with the lowest emissions (IPCC 2022, 1202). Slow-onset climate change impacts, like water scarcity, rainfall variability, lower crop and ecosystem productivity, sea level rise, and storm surge will make some parts of Africa less livable while other areas may become more attractive with relatively higher rainfall or soil moisture. As a consequence climate change will increasingly cause people to migrate from less livable to more livable areas with more benign environmental conditions potentially deepening existing vulnerabilities and leading to increased poverty, fragility, conflict, and violence (Clement et al. 2021). Based on observed climate impacts, one estimate is that GDP per capita is on average 13.6 percent lower for African countries than it would be if human-caused global warming since 1991 had not occurred, although impacts vary substantially across countries. If global warming increases by 2°C versus 1.5°C, GDP per capita across nearly all African countries, is projected to be at least another 5 percent lower by 2050 and 10–20 percent lower by 2100 (Baarsch et al. 2020; Burke et al. 2018; Diffenbaugh and Burke 2019, as cited in IPCC 2022, 1387). Increasing water demands resulting from population growth, coupled with changes in water supply from climate change, are projected to accentuate shortages in regions already experiencing water scarcity and water stress. If water continues to be managed and allocated as it is under current regimes, sub-regions such as the Sahel and Central Africa could see over a 10 percent reduction in GDP by 2050 under Shared Socio-economic Pathway 3 (SSP3) while SSA could see a 6 percent reduction in GDP by 2050. Development visions and climate action plans will need to integrate additional adaptation measures and avoid maladaptation (World Bank 2016). For this policy note an analysis of national vision documents and Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) documents across SSA was carried out to: (1) review the extent to which water and water related climate priorities feature in them; (2) propose substantive improvements to the presentation of water and water related climate priorities; and, (3) identify practical ways water sector actors can engage in shaping national planning documents going forward. National Visions, are long-term planning documents, often covering periods that are much longer than the electoral cycle (a decade of more). As the overarching national planning documents, they are endorsed by heads of state and underpinned by both more detailed medium term national development plans and monitoring systems. Unlike Sustainable Development Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 3 Goal  (SDG) plans they are not prepared in response to a defined international framework. Rather, they reveal both aspirations and concerns that countries have about their future at the highest political level—casting a light on national development and climate narratives. NDCs are country climate action plans to cut emissions and adapt to climate impacts. Each Party (country) to the 2015 Paris Agreement2 is required to establish an NDC and update it every 5 years. The plans define how to reach the targets, and elaborate systems to monitor and verify progress so it stays on track. Each new round of updates is expected to increase emissions cuts and articulate more detailed adaptation measures. Since climate finance is key to implementing the plans, NDCs ideally also detail a financing strategy—specifying which items are unconditional (nationally funded) and which are conditional on receiving climate finance. Whether water features in the priorities and measures detailed in NDCs is a condition for drawing down climate finance and will increasingly be a pre-requisite for drawing down development and private investment.3 Some countries now make explicit links between national visions and NDCs. However, this is work in progress across SSA. In part, this is due to the different timescales that the separate planning processes operate on, but more importantly, it is because: (1) many climate mitigation actions are conditional on unsecured climate finance; and, (2) there is still considerable uncertainty about which climate future countries will need to adapt to (hotter/drier or warmer/ wetter). While consistency between national visions and NDCs is desirable in the medium term, NDCs are better seen as complementary to national visions in that they chart modifications to an aspirational development path. Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 4 Does Water Feature in the National Vision Documents? The first question explored in this note is whether national vision documents contain water sector objectives and if so whether they also articulate adaptation to a warming world both in terms of adaptation and mitigation measures. All 48 countries in SSA were included in the analysis (table 1).4 Of these countries all bar one had national vision documents, which described development objectives mostly over a long- term period—a decade or more.5 Some caution is needed in comparisons across these national visions as they cover different time periods (both start and end) and so may reflect perspectives on national planning at different points in time. Of the 47 SSA countries with vision documents, half were developed for periods starting in 2015 or later—significant as the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015 and as this year was also the end of the Millennium Development Goals and the start of the SDGs. Most of those developed before 2015 are due for revision in the 2020s—an opportunity for revisiting water and climate objectives. Improving access to WSS is the most frequently cited objective (91 percent), with irrigation (55 percent) and hydropower (52 percent) cited in around half of national vision documents. The objectives in these three water subsectors were accompanied by quantitative targets in the vast majority of cases, formulated as: (1) percent coverage for WSS or universal access; (2) hectares of irrigation expansion; and, (3) megawatts of capacity for hydropower development. Nine counties with relatively low average rainfall (less than 1,200 mm a year) and low annual freshwater withdrawal rates (below 8 percent) that did not include irrigation in vision documents were: Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Chad, Comoros, Eritrea, Mali, Nigeria, Tanzania. Irrigation targets were more likely to be set in those countries that were already withdrawing higher proportions of available water resources. In other words, countries in which irrigation already plays a significant role in agricultural production were more likely to include irrigation targets in their vision documents. ­ Hydropower development targets do not follow a discernable pattern. While some countries with potential did include hydropower in vision documents, a number of countries with both installed capacity and potential to expand it did not include hydropower development targets for example, Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania. It is also notable that those national visions published 2015 onwards were less likely to cover hydropower expansion. Water resources management (WRM), though referenced in two thirds of the national vision documents, was much less clearly defined. Mention of WRM was more common among more Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 5 Table 1. Overview of Water Sector Priorities in National Vision Documents Country Period Average Renewable WSS Hectares Total annual Total annual % of Dam Hydro Irrigation covered rainfall freshwater access of internal freshwater cultivated capacity installed Hydro WRM by vision (mm/ per capita (basic) irrigated freshwater withdrawals land per capacity WSS document year) (m3) agriculture withdrawals (BCM) irrigated capita (MW) (year from to) (1,000HA) (% of internal (m ) 3 resources) Angola         2007-25 1,010 4,574 57 86 0.5 0.71 2.3 297 3,836 Benin         2000-25 1,039 838 65 24 1.3 0.13 0.6 2 33 Botswana         2016-36 416 960 92 1 8.4 0.20 1.4 482 0 Burkina Faso         2013-25 748 597 47 54 6.5 0.82 0.6 263 34 Burundi         2003-25 1,274 847 62 21 2.8 0.28 0.5   57 Cabo Verde         2017-21 228 520 89 3 10.0 0.03 3.9 0 0 Cameroon         2009-35 1,604 10,589 66 26 0.4 1.09 0.4 603 822 Central African Republic         2017-21 1,343 27,067 31 0 0.1 0.07 0.0   19 Chad         2017-30 322 930 41 30 5.9 0.88 0.5   0 Comoros - - - - 2020-30 900 1,517   0 0.8 0.01 0.1   1 Congo, Dem. Rep.         2019-50 1,543 10,010 27 11 0.1 0.68 0.1 1 2,760 Congo, Rep.         2020-48 1,646 39,851 28 2 0.0 0.05 0.1 2 218 Côte d’Ivoire         2016-40 1,348 2,939 36 73 1.5 1.16 0.6 1,448 879 Equatorial Guinea - - - - 2008-35 2,156 16,741     0.1 0.02     128 Eritrea         2020-30 384 800   22 20.8 0.58 0.9 13 0 Eswatini         1999-2022 788 2,257 71 50 40.5 1.07 23.9 510 60 Ethiopia         2021-30 848 1,069 37 858 8.6 10.55 2.3 281 4,074 Gabon         2011-15 1,831 73,123 85 4 0.1 0.14 0.9 101 331 Gambia         1996-2020 836 1,196 36 2 3.4 0.10 0.5   0 Ghana         1996-2020 1,187 961 44 31 4.8 1.45 1.3 4,882 1,584 Guinea         2015-40 1,651 17,550 64 95 0.4 0.89 0.5 144 706 Guinea- Bissau         2015-25 1,577 8,120 35 23 1.1 0.17 1.6 0 0 Kenya         2008-30 630 406 62 200 19.5 4.03 2.2 471 837 Lesotho         2004-20 788 2,350 43 3 0.8 0.04 0.1 1,352 73 Liberia         2012-30 2,391 40,118 75 2 0.1 0.15 0.0 48 93 Madagascar         2018-30 1,513 12,240 33 832 4.0 13.46 29.5 18 186 Malawi         2020-63 1,181 855 70 91 8.4 1.36 1.5 2 371 Mali         1999-2025 282 2,917 83 371 8.6 5.19 3.2 702 220 Mauritania         2016-30 92 91 72 45 337.1 1.35 9.7 110 48 Mauritius         2017-30 2,041 2,173 100 17 21.6 0.59 20.1 73 61 Mozambique         2015-35 1,032 3,312 63 118 1.5 1.47 1.0 2,441 2,216 Namibia         2004-30 285 2,518 84 8 4.6 0.28 0.9 284 347 Niger         2017-35 151 149 47 102 73.8 2.43 0.1 4 0 Nigeria         2010-20 1,150 1,087 56 331 5.6 12.47 0.6 252 2,111 Rwanda         2015-50 1,212 740 48 9 6.4 0.58 3.9 0 111 (table continues next page) Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 6 Table 1. (Continued ) Country Period Average Renewable WSS Hectares Total annual Total annual % of Dam Hydro Irrigation covered rainfall freshwater access of internal freshwater cultivated capacity installed Hydro WRM by vision (mm/ per capita (basic) irrigated freshwater withdrawals land per capacity WSS document year) (m3) agriculture withdrawals (BCM) irrigated capita (MW) (year from to) (1,000HA) (% of internal (m ) 3 resources) São Tomé and Príncipe - - - - 2010-30 3,200 10,158 42 7 1.9 0.04 11.6 181 2 Senegal         2014-35 686 1,612 85 120 11.9 3.03 3.2 15 81 Seychelles         2019-33 2,330     0   0.01 14.5 10 0 Sierra Leone         2003-25 2,526 19,884 53 29 0.1 0.21 0.1 28 64 Somalia         2020-24 282 375 56 200 55.0 3.30 4.4 0 0 South Africa         2011-30 495 771 94 1,670 44.3 19.64 13.4 530 3,596 South Sudan         2011-40 900 2,489 41 19 2.5 0.66 1.2   0 Sudan - - - - 2022-40 250 93 60 1,852 673.4 26.93 7.8 496 1,923 Tanzania         2000-25 1,071 1,403 61 364 6.2 5.18 2.1 1,796 596 Togo         2018-22 1,168 1,395 49 8 1.9 0.22 0.0 212 49 Uganda         2010-40 1,180 908 39 11 1.6 0.64 0.2 1,807 1,040 Zambia         2006-30 1,020 4,363 65 156 2.0 1.57 1.4 5,662 2,400 Zimbabwe         2018-30 657 798 33 181 30.8 3.77 4.4 6,823 1,091 Sources: Authors interpretation of Vision Documents and data from the following: World Development Indicators, FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) Aquastat, JMP (The WHO/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme), and IEA (International Energy Agency). Note: BCM = billion cubic meter; m3 = cubic meter; MW = megawatts; WRM = Water resources management; WSS = water supply and sanitation. water scarce countries but there were notable exceptions such as Eritrea and Zimbabwe. In most vision documents that did mention WRM, reference was to strengthening, prudent or sustainable WRM but without ­ articulating either specific technological or institutional mechanisms. Where technical interventions were mentioned they included: installing water resource monitoring equipment (e.g., the Democratic Republic of Congo, Eswatini, The Gambia); increasing water harvesting and storage (Eswatini, Mozambique, Niger, Senegal), watershed management (Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Madagascar); and, aquifer recharge (Botswana). Botswana’s vision went further addressing the need to reduce abstractions to below 90 percent of sustainable yield and to recycle wastewater. In the few cases where institutional mechanisms were cited these included: establishing or strengthening decentralized water management institutions (Eswatini) and strengthening policy instruments for demand management (The Gambia, Namibia, Botswana, South Africa). Only in Namibia was there explicit mention of water reallocation from low to high value crops. Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 7 How Does Water Feature in the NDCs? The latest round of NDC submissions for all countries were also analyzed to see how they defined action on water and climate adaptation. Each Party (country) to the Paris Agreement is required to establish an NDC and update it every 5 years. The NDC registry of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was used to analyze 26 adaptation and 15 mitigation measures linked to the water sector across 150 countries.6 This section describes what the most and least common water related climate action measures were across countries in SSA. It then delves into the detail of these water-related climate action measures to comment on their utility in advancing country resilience in the face of climate change as well as in mitigating climate change (table 2). Two very broad categories of water related climate action appeared in nearly all of the NDCs. These were: (1) nature-based solutions as an adaptation measure; and, (2) land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) as a mitigation measure. Nature-based solutions in over half of countries were focused on afforestation (with associated area-based targets) as well as references to coastal protection, greening urban areas. The LULUCF mitigation interventions were similarly focused on afforestation and associated area-based targets. While these measures can impact water availability (positive or negatively) they were not water sector intervention per se. Putting these aside, given their breadth, the top five water specific measures cited in NDCs across SSA are tabled below (table 3). Water adaptation measures featured in all SSA countries’ NDCs but ranged from a single mention of nature-based solutions (Equatorial Guinea) to including 15 of the 26 measures identified (Eswatini and Malawi). Early warning systems (EWS) were included in 69 percent of SSA’s 48 countries but only a few countries were specific about when the EWS would be set up (e.g., Cabo Verde). The Ghana NDC was the only one to specify the baseline and future size of the EWS network to be set up.7 Water supply (54 percent) and irrigation (54 percent) measures were less specific than in national vision documents in that they did not specify the level of ambition or timescale. A minority of NDCs mentioned climate proofing of existing water supply systems (The Gambia, Kenya) or targeting vulnerable or drought prone areas (Lesotho and Malawi). Only a few NDCs had area-based targets for irrigation (Benin, Eritrea, Malawi) while the majority included irrigation efficiency—such as introducing drip irrigation— but without specific targets. WRM measures in NDCs (52 percent) were even less specific than those included in national visions. Nearly all were statements of intent to adopt, promote or improve WRM. Only in Kenya was there a commitment to mainstream WRM into an existing set of water catchment management plans. New infrastructure (48 percent) included a broad Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 8 Table 2. Water-Related Adaptation and Mitigation Measures in NDCs Adaptation Mitigation New infrastructure (dams, reservoirs, sources) Early warning systems for flood and droughts Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 9 Biosolids or biofertilizers from wastewater Energy efficiency in water supply and Biofuels from wastewater treatment Energy efficiency in irrigation Institutional and civil actions Operation and maintenance Infrastructure rehabilitation Methane reduction in crops Climate smart agriculture Transboundary and share Infrastructure protection Watershed conservation Renewables in irrigation Ecosystem conservation Water sector in general Water sector in general Groundwater recharge Water intensive crops Water for livestock Renewable energy sanitation systems Circular economy Water harvesting Pollution control Water efficiency Water resources Water pricing Water supply Water supply Desalination Hydropower Disaster risk Water trade Ecosystems Sanitation Sanitation treatment Irrigation Country Angola                                                                             Benin                                                                             Botswana                                                                             Burkina Faso                                                                             Burundi                                                                             Cabo Verde                                                                             Cameroon                                                                             Central African Republic                                                                             Chad                                                                             Comoros                                                                             Côte d’Ivoire                                                                             Congo, Dem. Rep.                                                                             Congo, Rep.                                                                             Equatorial Guinea                                                                             Eritrea                                                                             Eswatini                                                                             Ethiopia                                                                             Gabon                                                                             Gambia                                                                             Ghana                                                                             Guinea                                                                             Guinea-Bissau                                                                             Kenya                                                                             Lesotho                                                                             Liberia                                                                             (table continues next page) Table 2. (Continued) Adaptation Mitigation New infrastructure (dams, reservoirs, sources) Early warning systems for flood and droughts Biosolids or biofertilizers from wastewater Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 10 Energy efficiency in water supply and Biofuels from wastewater treatment Energy efficiency in irrigation Institutional and civil actions Operation and maintenance Infrastructure rehabilitation Methane reduction in crops Climate smart agriculture Transboundary and share Infrastructure protection Watershed conservation Renewables in irrigation Ecosystem conservation Water sector in general Water sector in general Groundwater recharge Water intensive crops Water for livestock Renewable energy sanitation systems Circular economy Water harvesting Pollution control Water efficiency Water resources Water pricing Water supply Water supply Desalination Hydropower Disaster risk Water trade Ecosystems Sanitation Sanitation treatment Irrigation Country Madagascar                                                                             Malawi                                                                             Mali                                                                             Mauritania                                                                             Mauritius                                                                             Mozambique                                                                             Namibia                                                                             Niger                                                                             Nigeria                                                                             Rwanda                                                                             São Tomé and Príncipe                                                                             Senegal                                                                             Seychelles                                                                             Sierra Leone                                                                             Somalia                                                                             South Africa                                                                             South Sudan                                                                             Sudan                                                                             Tanzania                                                                             Togo                                                                             Uganda                                                                             Zambia                                                                             Zimbabwe                                                                             Source: CLEAR Water NDC Dashboard. Note: NDC = Nationally Determined Contributions. Table 3. Top 5 Water-Specific Adaptation and Mitigation Measures Included in NDCs across SSA Top 5 adaptation measures Top 5 mitigation measures Early warning systems (flood and drought) Renewable energy Irrigation Climate smart agriculture Water supply Hydropower Water resources management Biofuels from wastewater treatment New infrastructure (dams, reservoirs, sources) Energy efficiency in water supply and sanitation systems Source: CLEAR Water NDC Dashboard. Note: NDC = Nationally Determined Contributions; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa. range of dams (large, earth, sand), canals, wells, dykes, bunds, drainage, and even inter-basin transfers, but, specific dams were only mentioned in one case (Benin). The two least commonly referenced water-related adaptation measures were water trade and water ­pricing. Only Eswatini and Nigeria mentioned the use of water pricing as a means of managing demand and enhancing water resource use efficiency as a means of promoting climate adaptation. Transboundary water management was only mentioned in two countries. In Guinea with reference to restoration of the degraded transboundary river basin and in Tanzania related to the development, management, and equitable utilization of transboundary water resources. Pollution control as an adaptation measure—such as preventing wastewater flows into freshwater bodies—was mentioned in three countries (Burundi, Sudan and Tanzania). Institutional and civil actions were only mentioned in four countries (Malawi, Mozambique, Sudan and Togo) and only in Malawi did this include strengthening water policies. Water-related climate mitigation actions sought to reduce carbon emissions from uses of water across sectors (agriculture, energy, industry, waste management) as well as through efficiency measures within the water sector itself. Three of the top five mitigation measures related to various forms of renewable energy: hydropower (from large to micro), geothermal, green hydrogen, biofuels from wastewater treatment, solar water heating. Hydropower was specified in half of the NDCs and biofuels from wastewater treatment in a third of NDCs. Two thirds of country NDCs mentioned climate smart agriculture (CSA) among which only Senegal specified reducing methane emission from rice production. Only 27 percent of NDCs in SSA mentioned energy efficiency in WSS systems with only Nigeria setting a specific target to reduce energy intensity by 2.5 percent per year. Among the least commonly cited climate mitigation measures there were only a very limited number of examples of increasing the use of renewables in irrigation and reducing methane emissions from water intensive crops (both only mentioned in Mali); expanding the use of off- grid solar energy system to support water supply (Uganda); for sanitation reducing emissions from wastewater (Gabon and Malawi); and, promoting a circular economy by increasing wastewater reuse (Mauritania). Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 11 Improvements to the Presentation of Water and Climate Priorities in National Visions and NDCs Over the next decade as national vision documents are revised there is an opportunity to advocate for better defined water development and climate actions to be included in these high-level long- term planning documents. Across countries’ development visions and their NDCs there is a need to more consistently include water sector actions as well as to improve the quality and specificity of water related measures, indicators and targets. As vision documents get revised—around half of SSA visions will be revised in the 2020s—there is an opportunity to include more comprehensive coverage of all water subsectors. Universal access to water and sanitation as one of the SDGs, to which all UN members have signed up, should be included as standard. While the inclusion of irrigation is more context specific there were many examples of relatively low rainfall and water scarce countries in which irrigation targets were not included in vision documents. In future even higher rainfall countries may benefit from irrigation. There is also a need to move beyond area-based targets for irrigation. Area based targets imply the expansion of public irrigation schemes but omit opportunities to facilitate farmer-led irrigation development (e.g., pumping from river, own well, rain water harvesting tank) that can overcome economic water scarcity (Izzi, Denison, and Veldwisch 2021). Likewise for hydropower there is opportunity to articulate potential for both large schemes and to enable the expansion of micro-hydro schemes. There are also major opportunities to expand pump-­ storage capacity (running hydropower systems in reverse) (Global Greenfield Pumped Hydro Energy Storage Atlas). Across NDCs, which are revised every 5 years, there are even greater opportunities for more comprehensive coverage of water and climate actions. Fifteen countries in SSA have not included EWS which should be a standard measure across all NDCs. Twenty-two countries did not include water supply and/or irrigation measures and over half made no reference to additional water infrastructure. Making water infrastructure resilient to climate change and capitalizing on the resilience that water infrastructure can provide in the face of climate change are core adaptation measures. Addressing these gaps in the next cycle of NDCs is a priority. Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 12 Mitigation measures, particularly where they have development and/or adaptation co-benefits, should also be included in NDCs. No regrets mitigation measures in NDCs such as energy efficiency of all water systems (water supply, sanitation, irrigation), non-revenue water (NRW) were missing in all but one NDC in SSA. Reducing methane emissions from sewage treatment and water intensive crops are also opportunities to recover energy from waste and lower water use in, for example, rice production and should feature where appropriate in NDCs. Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 13 Practical Ways Water Sector Actors Can Engage in Shaping National Planning Documents Going Forward The above analysis suggests there is considerable scope to ensure that well established water sector measures, indicators and targets—for WSS, irrigation and hydropower—feature more comprehensively and specifically in national vision documents and NDCs. This in turn would improve the chances that water subsectors are covered by medium-term plans and that water- related climate action qualifies for climate finance.8 Paris alignment under Article 2.1 of the 2016 Agreement is a pre-condition for climate finance and increasingly a condition for development and private finance. In practice this is interpreted as whether the measures to be financed are set out in the NDC or related climate action plans such as: national adaptation plans (NAPs); low emissions development strategies (LEDS); and, national climate change action plans. Practical ways that water sector actors can shape these national planning documents across SSA, include: • Direct engagement with vision and NDC development processes at national level. Ministries of finance and/or planning lead on the development of country visions while ministries responsi- ble for environment tend to lead on the development on NDCs and other climate policies. Active participation with ministries responsible for national planning and the environment would raise the comprehensiveness and specificity with which the water sector is covered in future national visions and NDCs. Water sector actors can work through their organizational teams that engage with these institutions to: (1) strengthen water sector indicators and targets in visions and NDCs; and, (2) ensure that development, adaptation and mitigation measures are complementary across visions and NDCs. • Influencing the Continental Africa Water Investment Programme (AIP) Scorecard that ­ monitors progress on the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and is presented annually to Heads of State. The AU Agenda 2063 provides a long-term vision and targets, to coincide with 100 years of the AU creation. The Agenda is backed by a series of 10-year implementation plans, the first covering the period 2013–23 (see appendix A for current water related targets). The Agenda, and its underpinning plans, influence the thinking of national leaders and so indirectly national planning processes. The AIP is coordinated by the African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD). The AIP is supported by an annual monitoring process, the AIP scorecard, Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 14 implemented by a consortium of development actors.9 The Scorecard sets benchmarks to track country progress and offer cross-country learning on water investment climate readiness and is presented to the African Heads of State annually (in January) to mobilize political commit- ment and financing for water investments. Water sector actors can work with or through the consortium of development actors to influence both the investment plans and the AIP Scorecard. In 2022 the AIP Scorecard was piloted in nine countries and will be rolled out to other counties in SSA in 2023.10 Funding technical assistance across both the above policy processes offers a range of opportunities (through planning, the political level and technical analysis) to shape and rapidly improve the scope and quality of water sector and water related climate actions in national policies. Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 15 Conclusions Water management is a cornerstone of both development and climate adaptation. Across SSA many basic aspects of water development are lagging targets and holding back economic growth. Increasing water demands resulting from population growth, coupled with changes in water supply from climate change, are projected to accentuate shortages in regions already experiencing water scarcity and water stress. This policy note has shown that water and water-related climate actions are not consistently included in either national vision documents or NDCs across SSA. As vision documents and NDCs get revised there is a window of opportunity to ensure that water and its subsectors WSS, irrigation, hydropower and WRM are presented with clear indicators and targets. There are two key reasons why water sector actors should more actively engage in these national planning processes. First, the narratives, indicators and targets in vision documents get cascaded into medium term plan, strategies and expenditure frameworks. Second, climate finance, and increasingly development finance and private finance, require Paris alignment as a pre-requisite for investment. Practical ways that water sector actors can shape these national planning documents across SSA, include: 1. Direct engagement with vision and NDC development processes at national level. Ministries of finance and/or planning lead on the development of country visions while ministries responsible for environment tend to lead on the development on NDCs and other climate policies. Active participation with ministries responsible for national planning and the environment would raise the comprehensiveness and specificity with which the water sector is covered in future national visions and NDCs. 2. Influencing the Continental Africa Water Investment Programme (AIP) Scorecard that monitors progress on the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and is presented annually to Heads of State. The AU Agenda 2063 provides a long-term vision and targets, to coincide with 100 years of the AU creation. Funding technical assistance across both the above policy processes offers a range of opportunities to shape and rapidly improve the scope and quality of water sector and water related climate actions in national policies. Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 16 Appendix A: African Union Agenda 2063 To ensure that Agenda 2063 is not only implemented but that it has measurable results, 20 Agenda 2063 Goals are enumerated and linked to the seven Aspirations (table A.1). The goals and priority areas of the First Ten Year Implementation Plan (FTYIP) were influenced by four key factors (source: https://au.int/agenda2063/aspirations): 1. The Flagship Projects/Programmes of Agenda 2063 2. Near Term National and Regional Economic Communities (RECs) Development Priorities 3. Continental Frameworks 4. Agenda 2063 Results Framework In the first implementation plan, WSS is mentioned under aspiration 1 (A Prosperous Africa, based on Inclusive Growth and Sustainable Development), goal 1 (A High Standard of Living, Quality of Life and Well Being for All) and priority area 4 (Modern and Livable Habitats and Basic Quality Services). The targets associated are: • Reduce 2013 level of proportion of the population without access to safe drinking water by 95 percent. • At least 5 percent of the budget is allocated to water and sanitation by 2016. • At least 70 percent of the population indicate an increase in access to quality basic services (water, sanitation, electricity, transpiration, internet connectivity. Water security is also mentioned as a priority area under aspiration 1, goal 7 (Environmentally sustainable climate resilient economies and communities). The targets are as follows: • Increase 2013 levels of water demand satisfaction by 25 percent. • Increase 2013 levels of water productivity from rain-fed agriculture and irrigation by 60 percent. • At least 10 percent of rain water is harvested for productive use. • At least 10 percent of waste water is recycled for agricultural and industrial use. The targets for this first implementation plan for water derive from the Africa Water Vision 2025 developed in 2000). (­ Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 17 Table A.1. African Union Agenda 2063 Aspirations and Goals Aspiration Goals Aspiration 1: A prosperous 1. A high standard of living, quality of life and Africa based on inclusive well-being for all growth and sustainable Nine out of ten persons will have access to safe drinking development water and sanitation; electricity supply and internet connectivity will be up by 50% and cities will be recycling at least 50% of the waste they generate. 2. Well educated citizens and skills revolutions underpinned by science, technology and innovation 3. Healthy and well-nourished citizens 4. Transformed economies and jobs 5. Modern agriculture for increased proactivity and production 6. Blue/Ocean Economy for accelerated economic growth 7. Environmentally sustainable climate and resilient economies and communities Aspiration 2: An integrated 1. United Africa (Federal/Confederate) continent, politically united 2. World class infrastructure criss-crosses Africa and based on the ideals of 3. Decolonisation Pan-Africanism and the vision of Africa’s Renaissance Aspiration 3: An Africa of 1. Democratic values, practices, universal principles for good governance, democracy, human rights, justice and rule of law entrenched respect for human rights, 2. Democratic values, practices, universal principles for justice and the rule of law human rights, justice and rule of law entrenched 3. Capable institutions and transformed leadership in place at all levels Aspiration 4: A peaceful and 1. Peace security and stability is preserved secure Africa 2. A stable and peaceful Africa 3. A fully functional and operational APSA Aspiration 5: An Africa with 1. Africa cultural renaissance is pre-eminent a strong cultural identity, common heritage, shared values and ethics Aspiration 6: An Africa, whose 1. Full gender equality in all spheres of life development is people-driven, 2. Engaged and empowered youth and children relying on the potential of African people, especially its women and youth, and caring for children. Aspiration 7: Africa as a 1. Africa as a major partner in global affairs and strong, united, resilient and peaceful co-existence influential global player and 2. Africa takes full responsibility for financing her partner. development Source: https://au.int/agenda2063/aspirations. Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 18 Appendix B: Notes on Method ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL VISION DOCUMENTS While most of the vision documents are available online (94 percent), only 52 percent are found on official Government or Ministry websites, and the remaining are instead present on third party websites mostly international organizations such as FAO or The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). In some cases countries having vision documents do not necessarily make it available online, although their development plans and strategies are readily accessible online (e.g., Central African Republic and Togo). Vision documents for Comoros, Equatorial Guinea, and São Tomé and Príncipe were not available online. The majority of these covered the period up to 2025 (8 countries) and 2030 (14 countries), while for some recent national vision documents 11 covered a longer period (2033 for Seychelles, 2035 for Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Mozambique, Niger and Senegal, 2036 for Botswana, 2040 for Uganda, South Sudan, Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire, 2048 for the Republic of Congo, 2050 for Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo and 2063 for Malawi). In the case of Malawi, the vision period is till 2063 which marks the centenary of the African Union (AU). The AU is encouraging countries to align their national vision targets and strategies with those of the AU Agenda 2063. • In the case of the Democratic Republic of Congo, a national strategic plan for development exists for 2019–23, which also highlights the objectives to be achieved by 2050 as per the vision 2050. • Regional visions also exist—Southern African Development Community (SADC) vision 2050: https://www.sadc.int/pillars/sadc-vision-2050 and the East African Community (EAC) vision 2050: http://repository.eac.int/handle/11671/567 • There is a lack of a location online which centralizes all these vision documents and follows/ updates their progress for SSA Even the African Union does not have it. • These countries are signatory of the Agenda 2030 of the United Nations (UN). Country vision not to be confused with 2030 SDG vision. • In the case of Nigeria, the vision 2020 was abandoned at the pass of 2020 and a new target set for 2050 with the climate change oriented Agenda 2050 covering several sectors including water. • In the case of Senegal, the vision was developed in 2014 for development targeting 2035, and is operationalized through the -plan Senegal emergent (PSE). The latest PSE covers the period 2019–23. Do National Visions and Climate Commitments across Sub-Saharan Africa Hold Water? 19 The analysis of the water-related contents of vision documents covers 44 countries for which vision documents were available online and therefore does not include Comoros, Equatorial Guinea, São Tomé and Príncipe which have vision documents but were not available online. Sudan is the only SSA country without a vision document, although the process for drafting a vision 2040 has begun in 2021. This analysis therefore also excludes Sudan. NOTES   1. UNICEF/WHO Joint Monitoring Program https://washdata.org/data/household#!​ /­dashboard/new.   2. https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement.   3. List of climate finance funds: https://climatefundsupdate.org/the-funds/.   4. Source of country list: https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519​ -world-bank-country-and-lending-groups, Consulted on 8th November 2022.   5. Only Sudan did not have a national vision document, although the process of developing a Sudan Vision 2040 has begun in 2021.   6. The CLimate and Economic Analyses of Resilience in Water (CLEAR) is a standardized methodological framework developed by the World Bank to evaluate water sector performance, assess the impact of climate change on water, and understand how these impacts affect a country’s economic and social development. The CLEAR Water NDC Dashboard is a web platform that provides visualization of heatmaps of water-related climate adaptation and mitigation measures addressed in the NDCs   7. The Ghana NDC includes the following statement: “Expand and modernize the current 22 synoptic stations based on needs assessment, and increase the number to 50 stations for efficient weather information management.”   8. Both development and climate finance are increasingly requiring that investment is Paris aligned.   9. https://aipwater.org/implementation/aip-water-investment-scorecard/. 10. Benin, Cameroon, Central Africa Republic, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda and Zambia. BIBLIOGRAPHY Blakers, A. B. Lu, C. Cheng, R. Stocks, A. Nadolny, and T. Weber. 2022. Global Greenfield Pumped Hydro Energy Storage Atlas. Canberra: 100% Renewable Energy Group, The Australian National University. https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/global/. Clement, V., K. K. Rigaud, A. de Sherbinin, B. Jones, S. Adamo, J. Schewe, N. 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