Environment and Natural Resources Supplementary Guidance Note for Risk and Resilience Assessments ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS © 2022 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522- 2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: Shaadee Ahmadnia / World Bank. Cover photo depicts a woman walking an uphill path in rural Nepal while carrying a child on her back with one hand and a sickle in the other. Cover design: Sergio Andres Moreno Tellez / World Bank. 2 Environment and Natural Resources Supplementary Guidance Note for Risk and Resilience Assessments Shaadee Ahmadnia Phoebe Spencer Tracy Hart Caio Cesar de Araujo Barbosa Agathe Marie Christien Abbreviations CPF Country Partnership Framework DDR Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration FCS fragile and conflict-affected situations FCV fragility, conflict, and violence GBV gender-based violence ICRC International Committee of the Red Cross IDPs Internally Displaced Persons IEG Independent Evaluation Group IPV intimate partner violence M&E monitoring and evaluation NRM natural resource management OP Operational Policy RRA Risk and Resilience Assessment UN United Nations UNEP United Nations Environment Program WBG World Bank Group * All dollars are U.S. dollars. This supplementary guidance note is based on the report, Defueling Conflict: Environment and Natural Resource Management as a Pathway to Peace (2022), which was funded by the State and Peacebuilding Fund. This document is intended to encapsulate the key ideas to support Risk and Resilience Assessment (RRA) teams to collect knowledge on and deepen and nuance the treatment of the environment and natural resources in RRAs. Additional examples and analyses are available in the original report. SECTION I Includes a questionnaire to guide RRA teams in their analytical approach and operational discussions with country and task teams. The sections that follow contain background information for how and why these questions matter. SECTION II Provides an overview of the key facts, evidence, and debates to understand the intersection between natural resources, climate change, fragility, and conflict risks and linkages. SECTION III Covers operational implications given the risks and opportunities across the conflict and project cycle. ANNEX 1 Covers relevant resources for further reading. ANNEX 2 Describes the linkages between gender, conflict, and the environment. 1 SECTION 1 SECTION QUESTIONNAIRE Questionnaire Natural Resource Management in FCV Questionnaire for Upstream Analytics and Downstream Operations 7 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS This annotated questionnaire is designed to help upstream analytics and consequent inputs into downstream operations consider the interplay between the conflict, climate, and environment nexus. The questionnaire is divided into two sections–Situational Analysis and Project Design. The first is a series of macro-level guiding questions that are useful to inform RRA development at a strategic level and key points for policy dialogue. Project Design questions prompt RRA development to consider how analyses will support the integration of these dynamics into the preparation of specific projects and enhance the conflict-sensitivity of operations. Note, this questionnaire does not aim to be prescriptive or serve as a “checklist” but instead help RRA teams ask the “right questions” to integrate these dimensions in their analyses.  SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS KEY CONCEPTS TO CONSIDER Key Orienting Questions: The environment does not always stoke conflict directly, • Were natural resources a factor in the conflict? but can contribute to and exacerbate the existing social, economic, and political challenges and stressors in • Have disputes over natural resource access, use, or control fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) affected contexts. contributed to triggering or perpetuating the conflict? How so? • Were natural resources used in the conflict economy and as a basis Whether increased competition over natural resources for coping mechanisms and survival? Consider the role of different escalates into conflict depends on several risk factors: natural resources in the conflict economy at the national, regional, high natural resource dependence, inequality and and local scales. marginalization, the strength of institutions, and a recent history of conflict.1 • Do the military, armed groups, or criminal networks either informally or formally control some aspect of the resource value chain they use to fund themselves? Determining Natural Resource Dependence: • Is there high dependence on natural resources in the economy at the national and/or local levels? • What percent of the national economy and of export earnings rely on extractive industries as opposed to other sectors? • Are large parts of the population reliant on renewable resources for their livelihoods? Availability and Quality of Natural Resources: Think through the following groups of natural resources: • How has the management, access, availability, and quality of land (an economic asset and intrinsically tied to these resources changed? Have conflict, demographic growth and culture, heritage, identity, and community), renewables displacement, climate, or global markets changed natural resource (agriculture, crops, livestock, non-timber forest availability or value? products, and water), extractives (industrial and artisanal mining, commercial forestry, oil, and gas). • When conflicts linked to natural resources arise, who are the actors responsible for resolving them and what are their processes? Who is When natural resource values change, whether a excluded from conflict resolution and how? decrease in value due to degradation or an increase in value due to global market demand or restoration, Gender and Social Inclusion: there is a risk of conflict when there is a lack of effective governance or management framework. • How do women and men access, use, and control natural resources in this context? Reflect on women’s and men’s different natural resource management (NRM) roles and responsibilities and • How are these resources managed, and who is excluded? Consider the added barriers for women. Consider how conflict- relevant factors of identity, including gender, ethnicity, religious environment linkages can affect traditional gender norms. association, socioeconomic status, age, etc. 8 SECTION 1 QUESTIONNAIRE SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS KEY CONCEPTS TO CONSIDER Characteristics of natural resources that have an important role in TIP: Remember that conflict can ensue over scarce or conflict dynamics and the onset, conduct, and ending of conflicts include: abundant natural resources. For example, abundance of a natural resource at a local scale can instigate conflict – Type of natural resource (renewable, non-renewable, land) and competition over its control if it is a high-value, – Energy provision (fuel vs. non-fuel) globally scarce good. – Spatial distribution (point vs. diffuse) – Distance to main governmental control (e.g., the capital) – Market value (Ringterink (2020) found that as international resource prices rose, the intensity of violence increased in resource-rich subnational areas, but not on a national level) – Lootability (market value, ease of extraction, high-value-per-weight) – Characteristics of the extraction process (scale, impacts on local livelihoods) – Actors involved in the extraction (winners and losers in resource ownership, access, and use) Climate Change: Climate-related shocks include rapid onset disasters • What are the current and projected climate change-related stressors? (cyclones, storms, wildfires, drought, heatwaves) and slow onset changes (desertification, sea level rise, • How are disasters such as droughts, storms, and floods affecting the population? salinization, changing rainfall patterns, temperature increase). • What are the long-term effects of climate change in the region (e.g., temperature increase, sea-level rise)? Climate-conflict risks: • What are predicted future impacts? – Natural resource competition/conflict • What are the knock-on impacts of these stressors that exacerbate – Livelihood insecurity climate-conflict risks? – Migration and displacement • Are there specific regions, groups, communities, or economies that – Disasters challenging governance are particularly exposed to climate change-related stressors? – Volatile food prices and provision – International tensions Gender and Social Inclusion: – Unintended, negative impacts of environmental and climate change interventions TIP: Use a gender and social inclusion lens by thinking through how different groups of men, women, boys, and girls based on ethnicity, Consider the magnifying effect of multiple levels of socio-economic status, age, and race are affected by these climate- marginalization (e.g., women who are also part of related risks. vulnerable ethnic minorities) and identify the most resource-dependent. Impacts may vary between: – Highlands vs. plains/coastal areas – Rural communities vs. urban areas – Resource-dependent Indigenous peoples and local communities – Gender – Vulnerable groups 9 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS KEY CONCEPTS TO CONSIDER Coping capacity and resilience: Consider the following livelihood practices: • How do livelihoods differ among various groups (women, men, ethnic – Animal husbandry groups, etc.)? – Agriculture • How have environmental degradation and climate-related shocks – Transhumance affected the livelihoods of different groups? How are they likely to – Mining affect these groups in the future? What are the gender-differentiated – Fishing impacts? – Hunting • How have conflict and fragility affected the livelihoods of different groups? – Trade • How are the impacts of climate change and environmental vulnerability affecting human mobility (seasonal migration, TIP: These practices will change depending on the displacement, long-term migration, etc.)? Are these changes context of your assessment (e.g., rural vs. urban areas). impacting social cohesion? • What are some livelihood practices that can contribute to environmental degradation (such as mining, woodcutting)? • How is the government responding to the situation? What is the impact of their response? Consider institutional and governmental coping capacities. Conflict and Peace: Reflect on the following: • How do climate change and environmental issues affect existing – Root causes of conflict conflict/fragility dynamics? – Main conflict actors • What factors of fragility apply and how do they interact with NRM? – Whose voice is not heard • What role does the natural resource situation play in existing conflict – Effects of conflict dynamics? – Factors and processes that can contribute to conflict • What role does livelihood insecurity play in existing conflict dynamics? resolution or prevention • How do climate change and conflict challenge the ability of the – Customary practices for conflict resolution government to fulfill its role? – Growing demand from production or demographics • How do environmental vulnerability and climate change exacerbate pre-existing inequalities and the exclusion of certain groups? – What contributes to conflict resolution or prevention • What have been existing efforts and mechanisms to prevent or – Elite capture resolve conflicts? Who has participated, and who has been excluded? Factors that exacerbate climate and security risks: What were the outcomes? – Horizontal and vertical grievances (between communities, herders, and farmers; local actors and Gender and Social Inclusion: the state; two neighboring states) • Which roles do different actors and genders play in conflict – Real and perceived inequality and exclusion prevention, peacebuilding, and climate change adaptation? – Low state capacity and authority – Poverty and low socioeconomic development – Limited provision of basic services to the population – Food insecurity – Urban-rural divide – Climate change – Demographic challenges–population growth, migration 10 SECTION 1 QUESTIONNAIRE PROJECT DESIGN KEY CONCEPTS TO CONSIDER • Think through how the situational analysis above can inform program objectives and activities. How can project activities tackle some of these problems? • What insights would help projects incorporate strategies to address the problems and issues unique to the situation of conflict presented and mitigation measures for identified risks? Key Orienting Questions: Environmental risks: • What are the environmental risks and opportunities in the areas of – Competition and displacement intervention? Consider the conflict intensity and what opportunities – Causing tensions and grievances are feasible based on the reality on the ground. – Fueling and financing conflict – Weapons of war – Damaged by conflict – Incentive to undermine peace – Causing post-conflict aspirations and tensions – Illegal exploitation and trade Environmental opportunities: – Good resource governance – Entry point for dialogue – Economic incentives for peace – Confidence-building by resource cooperation – Opportunity for government reform – Jobs, livelihoods, and resettlement – Revenues and basic services Informing Project Objectives: • Has a conflict analysis or fragility assessment been conducted at the local, national, or sectoral level? Does it include an assessment of underlying conflict factors and power dynamics, as well as a stakeholder analysis? Refer to those conducted by the Bank, United Nations (UN), and other humanitarian agencies. • How can peacebuilding priorities be maximized through projects? Peacebuilding Priorities Economic Restoring Inclusive Political Basic Safety and Provision of Basic Revitalization, Government Processes and Social Security Services Employment, and Functions Cohesion Livelihoods Governance support in Water Sector reforms Platform for cooperation / Agriculture resource-rich areas trust Sanitation Resource rights Fisheries Conflict resource Dispute resolution management Waste management Land use Forestry / Non-timber forest Public participation in NRM products Remediate and restore Energy Access to justice decisions access (mines/unexploded Pastoralist ordnance) Food security Environmental Impact Community-based NRM Assessments Protected areas Disaster risk management Climate change adaptation Capacity-building Markets and trade Sustainable and socially Disarmament, demobilization, Gender and (re)integration of responsible value-chains and reintegration through Revenues and wealth sharing marginalized groups resource-based livelihoods Renewable energy Repair and construction Natural Resource Management Source: Adapted from UNDG and UNECHA, 2013. 11 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS PROJECT DESIGN KEY CONCEPTS TO CONSIDER • What causes of conflict and fragility does programming address? Consider what mediates climate and security risks: – Gender equality and social inclusion – Mobility with dignity – Social cohesion (horizontally between communities and vertically between local and traditional governance to national governance) – Access to livelihood opportunities and public services – Institutions for conflict management – Sustainable livelihood opportunities – Community resilience – Equitable distribution of benefits – Inclusion, participation, transparency, accountability • What are the opportunities to generate peace dividends and incentives for cooperation through natural resources? Consider land and property rights and improvements in livelihoods, governance, and the economy. • Are there opportunities to support sustainable livelihoods and enhance community resilience? Identify ways to change the inequitable distribution of resources, particularly if the direct use of natural resources is critical to livelihoods in the project area. TIP: Identify the plans and commitments for peacebuilding that can be strengthened by World Bank operations. Gender: • Consider using gender-sensitive NRM as an entry point for conflict resolution and prevention. • How can projects address gender gaps in NRM and inequalities exacerbated by FCV contexts and climate change? • How do you integrate a gender lens in climate resilience components of projects and advance women’s participation in climate resilience and sustainable NRM? • How are women and men from various backgrounds (based on race, ethnicity, disability, sexual orientation, age, etc.) included in projects and how do projects address their differentiated needs? Site-Level Factors: • Are projects near or in an area that has been affected by armed conflict or climate change (natural disasters, degradation, etc.) within a particular period of time? Delve deeper into conflict, natural resources, and climate nexus issues discussed in the situational analysis to understand trends at the local level. Consider violent crime rates at the country versus community level. • What have been the major direct and indirect impacts of conflict on the area of study and its natural resources? • Identify the existence of conflict economies that may impact the design and implementation of productive activities. • Have large populations relocated within the region in the past few years? Why? • What has been the relationship between conflict and land-use change in the area of interest before, during, and after the conflict? • Are there militias/criminal groups operating in the area of interest? Have they used natural resources to fund themselves, inspire grievances against the state, or control local populations? • Does the community have historic grievances against the state? Consider the presence and relations between territorial authorities and between the state and the region. • Are there groups who are particularly vulnerable to natural resource changes in this area? TIP: According to the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), the programs that have yielded the largest benefits environmentally and socially are those where both threatened areas and vulnerable resource users were targeted carefully.2 12 SECTION 1 QUESTIONNAIRE PROJECT DESIGN KEY CONCEPTS TO CONSIDER • How engaged are people and affected communities in the management of or decisions about land and natural resources? • Are there traditional conflict resolution and/or resource management mechanisms in place to empower all stakeholders to participate in project implementation? • To what extent are the traditional conflict resolution and/or NRM mechanisms inclusive and representative? • How can projects enhance the resilience of these mechanisms to be resilient in the face of scarcity as well as changes to social dynamics? Risk Management: Common triggers of natural resource conflicts: • How might projects influence or interact with the conflict context? – Rising grievances between the haves and the have- • Have you considered whether and how project activities could nots (real or perceived) worsen conflicts or spark new ones? – Changing natural resource values and availability • How might conflict affect a project’s success? (increase or decrease) • How can these risks be monitored and managed? Consider options – Elite capture to minimize conflict or promote peacebuilding. – Exclusion from decision-making or benefits • How could a project respond if conflict increased within or close to Key pathways by which conflict and fragility affect the project sites? projects: • How are different groups/stakeholders likely to perceive projects? – Physical insecurity Could differences in perception potentially lead to violence? Who benefits and who “loses” from project activities? – Social conflict and mistrust – Difficulties hiring staff Gender: – Economic drivers–illicit trade of natural resources, resource competition driving conflict, currency • What can be some of the unintended consequences of interventions depreciation that could exacerbate gender inequality, gender-based violence (GBV), fragility, and conflict dimensions? How can we monitor and – Political fragility and weak governance–corruption, mitigate these risks? limited financial capacity, land tenure issues • What are the underlying values and attitudes about gender that may – Coping strategies–conflict between internally drive gender inequalities? How might these inequalities affect a displaced persons (IDPs)/refugees and local project, and how might a project affect these values and attitudes? communities Unintended consequences can include exacerbating various forms of GBV (intimate partner violence (IPV), sexual assault and rape, early/forced marriage, sexual abuse and exploitation) and intensifying exclusion and conflict dynamics. TIP: Think through how a project might fuel social tensions and conflict at the household level, at the community level, at the national level, between conflict parties, between minority and majority groups, etc. 13 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS PROJECT DESIGN KEY CONCEPTS TO CONSIDER Conflict-Sensitive and Resilience-Building Strategies Employed by Teams: Context analysis to inform differentiated engagement and integrated solutions–RRAs, Country Partnership Frameworks (CPFs), peace and inclusion lenses, safeguards, conflict analyses Inclusion and people-centric interventions – Adopting an intersectional lens – Community-driven development approach – Partnerships with humanitarian agencies and local actors, including women and youth groups – Inclusive, participatory approaches to project design, monitoring, and implementation – Dispute resolution mechanisms FCV Appropriate Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) – Monitoring the security situation and early warning of climate and conflict risks, including partnerships for data sharing – Adaptive management–simple, flexible design that builds on what works; budgeting and planning for potential changes in advance Stakeholder Engagement: Consider who will or will not benefit from a project • Are members of the communities involved in decision-making, or intervention, for example, marginalized and planning, and implementation of program design, implementation, resource-dependent groups who may not be welcome and monitoring? Do the program implementation plans include in traditional resource management structures or feedback and accountability mechanisms? recognized by the government as beneficiaries. • How can the selection of project beneficiaries and partners be informed by a conflict analysis (e.g., account for divisions along TIP: Understand and access difficult-to-reach ethnic, political, or social lines)? populations in need by working with local actors, humanitarian agencies, and community-development • Can the selection criteria be developed with members of the local driven approaches. communities, including both direct beneficiaries and surrounding communities? • What lessons have been learned from previous attempts to engage stakeholders? How can they inform current projects? Gender and Social Inclusion: • Has there been an analysis of exclusion dynamics in the sectors of interest? • Are measures incorporated to remove barriers to the participation of people most involved in the conflict issues and who may feel threatened to engage in the development processes? (e.g., victims of violence from minority ethnicities in an ethnic conflict) • Are gender-differentiated needs, preferences, knowledge, and roles within a community taken into account? 14 SECTION 1 QUESTIONNAIRE PROJECT DESIGN KEY CONCEPTS TO CONSIDER Monitoring and Evaluation: Consider the following: • Does the M&E framework reflect the conflict dynamics? – How indicators can help measure progress towards • How can a team plan to continuously monitor the impact of conflict on closing gender gaps through project components and project implementation, as well as the project’s effects on conflict? activities, as well as for other vulnerable groups How can the context be effectively monitored to inform adaptive – How to build in a participatory approach and management decisions? feedback loop mechanism to engage beneficiaries • Are other organizations monitoring conflicts (related and unrelated to and get their feedback in order to inform project natural resources) and/or conflict dynamics in the area? implementation and course correct as needed • How can beneficiaries be engaged in M&E? How are approaches – How technology can be used to ease monitoring inclusive/participatory? constraints • Have you considered the ways in which mechanisms for engagement – How participatory monitoring may be used as an can either help ease tensions or exacerbate them? intervention in itself to build capacity and improve • How do you capture lessons and build the evidence base of what coordinated responses to climate and security risks works? Collect evidence beyond the biophysical to examine impacts – How the way a project is monitored may either ease of interventions on conflict and the welfare of local communities. or exacerbate tensions • How can you share those lessons and evidence back with stakeholders in a way that promotes the objectives of the projects? Gender: • Do project development objective level and intermediate indicators have a gender lens and capture how the project will contribute to addressing gender gaps through project components and activities? • Are sex-disaggregated data collected for all relevant indicators? TIP: Consider disaggregating the data based on other factors of social inclusion to capture intersectionality, including ethnicity, race, disability, age, location, etc. 15 References: This questionnaire builds on Adelphi and the United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP) “Climate, Peace, and Security: Understanding Climate-Related Security Risks Through an Integrated Lens” summary note. It has been adapted and modified to fit the needs of Bank staff, and has also been influenced and informed by the resources below. “Climate Change, Peace and Security: Understanding Climate-Related Security Risks Through an Integrated Lens.” UNCC: Learn (online course). Accessed August 31, 2022. https://unccelearn .org/course/view.php?id=118&page=overview. Detges, Adrien, Daniel Klingenfeld, Christian König, Benjamin Pohl, Lukas Rüttinger, Jacob Schewe, Barbora Sedova, and Janani Vivekananda. 2020. 10 Insights on Climate Impacts and Peace: A Summary of What We Know. Berlin: Adelphi; Potsdam: The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). https://berlin-climate-security-conference.adelphi.de/sites/berlin-climate- securityconference.adelphi.de/files/documents/10_insights_on_climate_impacts_and_peace_ report.pdf. GEF (Global Environment Facility). 2020. Evaluation of GEF Support in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations. Washington, DC: GEF Independent Evaluation Office. https://www.gefieo.org/sites / default/files/documents/evaluations/fragility-2020.pdf. IEG (Independent Evaluation Group). 2021. The Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Nexus: An Evaluation of the World Bank’s Support for Sustainable and Inclusive Natural Resource Management (2009–19). Washington, DC: World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/35480. Rigterink, Anouk S. 2020. “Diamonds, Rebel’s and Farmer’s Best Friend: Impact of Variation in the Price of a Lootable, Labor-Intensive Natural Resource on the Intensity of Violent Conflict.”Journal of Conflict Resolution 64 (1): 90–126. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002719849623. Rüttinger, Lukas, Janani Vivekananda, Christian König, and Barbara Sedova. 2021. Weathering Risk Methodology Paper. Berlin: Adelphi; Potsdam: The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). https://weatheringrisk.org/sites/default/files/document/Weathering%20Risk%20 Methodology%20Paper_0.pdf. Schellens, Marie K., and Arnaud Diemer. 2020. “Natural Resource Conflicts: Definition and Three Frameworks to Aid Analysis.” In Partnerships for the Goals, edited by Walter Leal Filho, Anabela Marisa Azul, Luciana Brandli, Amanda Lange Salvia, and Tony Wall. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi .org/10.1007/978-3-319-71067-9_81-3. Tänzler, Dennis, and Nikolas Scherer. 2018. Guidelines for Conflict-Sensitive Adaptation to Climate Change. Germany: Umweltbundesamt. UNDG (United Nations Development Group) and UNECHA (United Nations Executive Committee on Humanitarian Affairs). 2013. “Natural Resource Management in Transition Settings.” Guidance Note. https://unsdg.un.org/sites/default/files/UNDG-ECHA_NRM_guidance_Jan2013.pdf. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2022. Addressing Climate-Related Security Risks: Conflict Sensitivity for Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainable Livelihoods - Guidance Note. Nairobi: UNEP. https://wedocs.unep.org/20.500.11822/40330. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2022. Addressing Climate-Related Security Risks: Conflict Sensitivity for Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainable Livelihoods - Toolbox. Nairobi: UNEP. https://wedocs.unep.org/20.500.11822/40329. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme) and EU (European Union). 2022. Addressing Climate- Related Security Risks: Conflict Sensitivity for Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainable Livelihoods - Monitoring and Evaluation Note. Nairobi: UNEP. https:// wedocs.unep.org/20.500.11822/40332. 16 2 SECTION Key Facts, Debates, and Evidence SECTION 2 KEY FACTS, DEBATES, AND EVIDENCE Studies have demonstrated the prevalence of conflict in resource-rich areas and examined the relationship between natural resources, climate, and conflict. » In any year from 1946 to 2008, at least 40 percent of all intrastate conflicts were triggered, funded, or sustained by natural resources, with some years as high as 65 percent (GEF 2020 citing Rustad and Binningsbø 2010). » From 2014 to 2018, natural resources were a source of contention in one in four global crises and conflicts (Schellens and Diemer 2020 citing HIIK n.d.). » If extracted natural resources provide a substantial part of a country’s revenue, or if large portions of the population are dependent on land and renewable resources, there is particular vulnerability to conflict (UNDG and UNECHA 2013). » Each degree Celsius rise in temperature increases interpersonal conflict by 2.4 percent and intergroup conflict by 11.3 percent (Burke, Hsiang, and Miguel 2015). » An estimated 70 percent of the most climate-vulnerable countries are also among the most politically and economically fragile (Rüttinger 2020); 60 percent of the 20 countries most vulnerable to climate change are in conflict (ICRC 2020). 19 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS The environment rarely causes conflict directly but can exacerbate the existing social, economic, and political challenges and stressors in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS). Although the causal pathways are highly contextual and a subject of debate,3 the consensus in academic, security, and practitioner spheres is that climate change is a threat multiplier and that natural resources may have a triggering role in precipitating the underlying causes of fragility into violence. It is a cross-cutting variable that can have knock-on impacts, including on food security, poverty, political instability and grievances, and displacement. Thus, while the relationship between climate, natural resources, and conflict is neither linear nor direct, there are important mediating variables and risk factors that can provide insight into the triggers and outcomes of fragility. The resource curse theorizes that countries with an abundance of natural resources have less economic growth, democracy, and worse development outcomes than countries with fewer natural resources. But research has refined the attribution of these issues to mediating factors related to poor governance and weak institutions underlying fragility (Lederman and Maloney 2007; Ross 2015; Schellens and Diemer 2020). Whether increased competition over natural resources escalates into conflict depends on several risk factors: high natural resource dependence, inequality and marginalization, and a recent history of conflict (Detges et al. 2020). Each risk factor is exacerbated by climate change. Several different typologies exist to understand the risks and drivers of conflict and natural resources: (i) Scarcity- vs. abundance-driven conflict, (ii) Risks and drivers by natural resource category (non-renewable resources, renewable resources, and land), and (iii) Typical risks and drivers from a changing climate. See Defueling Conflict: Environment and Natural Resource Management as a Pathway to Peace (2022) for an overview of these dynamics. FCS economies are highly dependent on natural resources. An evaluation of World Bank Group (WBG) assistance to low-income FCS (2014) found that natural resources account for 28.5 percent of GDP in FCS.4 In countries such as Angola and the Republic of Congo, that number rises to 60 percent. In contrast, the GDP from natural resource extraction in non-FCS countries is 7.1 percent on average.5 Agriculture is the largest sector in FCS (30 percent of GDP) and makes up 40 percent to 70 percent of total employment.6 High dependence on a specific natural resource makes local and national economies susceptible to shocks and ripple effects that countries affected by FCV struggle to contain. For example, the sharp decline in oil prices due to a reduction in demand from COVID-19 restrictions severely impacted oil-dependent economies such as Angola and Iraq (IMF 2020; World Bank 2020). In terms of renewable resources, a high degree of agricultural dependence also translates to climate vulnerability: water scarcity, drought, or a loss in agricultural yields reduce incomes, threaten livelihoods, and decrease food security. Such a shock can have cascading, mounting effects on stability, increasing grievances and amplifying existing inequalities in the country. In the face of decreased livelihoods, the income and protections offered by organized crime and terrorist organizations may overshadow the risks associated with engaging in illegal activities. Populations may also be faced with limited options and resort to migration as an adaptation strategy, which can further strain state-societal relationships and increase competition over natural resources elsewhere if not managed appropriately. Each knock-on impact and its results culminate in an increased burden on weak governance and add to the underlying drivers of fragility and conflict. In FCV contexts with limited coping capacities and high dependency on natural resources, any change to the physical landscape can have the potential to destabilize the economic, political, and social landscape. Both positive and negative changes in the value of natural resources pose risks, whether as a decrease in value through degradation or an increase in value due to global market demand or environmental interventions 20 SECTION 2 KEY FACTS, DEBATES, AND EVIDENCE like restoration or payment-for-ecosystem services. In places affected by FCV, the most degraded land still has value as a social safety net for resource-dependent vulnerable users, and increasing the value of this land risks predation by elites and encroachment, displacing the local population, and deepening the vulnerability of the most vulnerable (IEG 2021). When natural resource dependence is high, exclusion, discrimination, and lack of representation in the management of those resources can entrench poverty, inequality, and grievances (Detges et al. 2020). Vulnerable groups (women, IDPs, transhuman pastoralists, community, or religious minorities, etc.) are often excluded from access to resources and from formal methods of resolving resource conflicts due to imbalances in power and rights. The lack of government responsiveness to segments of the population increases the risk of instability and humanitarian emergencies. Even if a country is not on the World Bank’s FCS list, Indigenous and local communities around areas of conservation, living within or on the periphery of protected areas, are often resource-dependent; have strained state-society relations; and face economic, social, and political exclusion. Both conflict and environmental vulnerability particularly exacerbate gender inequalities and disproportionately affect women and girls. See Annex 2 Gender, Conflict, and Environment Linkages. Inequality, or even the mere perception of inequality, can ignite conflict. Changes in natural resource quantity, quality, and management can accentuate the perceived and real gaps between the haves and have-nots, for instance, rural tensions with the state and pre- existing grievances about poor service provision (Detges et al. 2020; Schwartzstein 2021). For example, in Mali, droughts between the 1970s and 1980s wiped out nomadic herders and their livelihoods, but settled farmers prospered as areas under cultivation and total agricultural production grew (Ghani and Malley 2020). The government provided new wells in the Mopti region to improve conditions for the nomadic population, but violence ensued as the wells attracted farmers who laid claim to the land. Further marginalized from basic service access and protection, some herders turned to jihadi and self-defense groups as authorities failed to address and manage the resulting land-use issues. This case reveals how a well-intentioned intervention that resulted in newfound resource abundance, in this case water, if governed poorly, can precipitate conflict and add to the grievances of those it is meant to protect. Environmental interventions may prompt grievances or deepen inequalities by introducing new burdens (restricting access), land grabbing, or disputes over access to benefits (like revenues). For example, World Bank sustainable land management projects use area closures on degraded hillsides or catchments to allow the land to recover through natural regeneration. These initiatives are designed to increase the productivity of land and flow of ecosystem services in the long term. IEG (2021) found that the Ethiopia Sustainable Land Management Project I and II significantly reduced land degradation with the use of the technique, but the limitation on grazing risked harming livestock production and increasing vulnerability without support for fodder. The Niger Community Action Program utilized area closures involving tree planting to support vegetation on highly eroded areas that had been sparse for decades. The project was a success in biophysical terms and yielded benefits to some resource users, including temporary employment to work the soil and plant trees and the development of small nursery businesses. However, the effort left transhumant herders and local livestock owners with limited grazing options. IEG found little evidence that these groups were consulted in the project and emphasized the importance of understanding customary, flexible tenure arrangements and coping strategies of vulnerable resource users. Read more about the lessons in Niger here. 21 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS A recent history of conflict signals weak governance and degraded or non-existent institutions that struggle to manage natural resources or prevent disputes from turning violent (Detges et al. 2020). Civil war, ethnic rivalries, and interstate conflict weaken cooperative mechanisms and make arms easily available. Compound risks emerge from linked climate and security crises, culminating in a climate-conflict trap. FCV contexts are particularly vulnerable to the effects of compound risks because of a relative lack of coping capacity to address the complex, multi-dimensional crises posed by the dual threat. Fragile states struggle to handle shocks, whether they are caused by conflict or climate, or the mutually reinforcing burden of both. In states with large populations, political exclusion, and low levels of human development, up to one-third of conflicts from 1980–2016 followed climate-related disasters (Ide et al. 2020). Building resilience and adaptation to climate in conflict- and climate change-vulnerable settings is key to preventing conflict and fostering sustainable development outcomes. Literature and implementing agencies have described several approaches and pathways by which the management of environmental issues supports conflict prevention, mitigation, resolution, and recovery, which Ide et al. 2021 defines as environmental peacebuilding. The same factors that make a country or community vulnerable to conflict make them vulnerable to climate change, and sustainable livelihoods, social cohesion, and effective governance are key to coping with shocks and stresses associated with both. NRM contributes to peacebuilding priorities identified by humanitarian actors: basic safety and security; provision of basic services; restoring government functions; inclusive political processes and social cohesion; and economic revitalization, employment, and livelihoods (Ide et al. 2021; UNDG and UNECHA 2013; UN-IFTPA 2012). Basic services. NRM offers a pathway for delivering sustainable access to basic services, such as water provision, sanitation, food security, and energy. Restoring government functions. NRM has the potential to support the equitable and transparent distribution of resource benefits and revenue to foster trust in government institutions–demonstrating its ability to meet the needs of its population by providing basic services and to respond to challenges and disputes reliably, peacefully, and with accountability. Inclusive political processes and social cohesion. Inclusive and transparent NRM systems and meaningful engagement opportunities can help calm conflict risks by addressing tensions around contested issues. Inclusive NRM can support social cohesion in terms of vertical social capital, i.e., the trust between citizens and the government, as well as horizontal social capital, i.e., among members of society. Natural resources can be a valuable entry point for dialogue and confidence-building between divided groups to work toward a common goal with multiple benefits, i.e., peace dividends. Moreover, social inclusion and reduced inequality make growth more resilient, whereas exclusion from basic services, infrastructure, and economic opportunities constrains productivity. Economic revitalization, employment, and livelihoods. Livelihood insecurity and economic performance are key predictors of peacebuilding failure and fragility (Ide et al. 2021 citing Cederman and Vogt 2017; Gueorguiev et al. 2021). Climate change and natural resource degradation threatens resource-dependent communities and national economies. Effective NRM supports the stability of the economy at the national and local levels and can be used to enable productive, sustainable, and rewarding livelihoods. Renewable resources are especially critical in post-conflict economies, where 50 percent to 60 percent of livelihoods are agrarian (Stahn, Iverson, and Easterday 2017 citing Bruch et al. 2018). Natural resources are also vital to the success of the disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of ex-combatants, a key step in preventing the recurrence of violence 22 SECTION 2 KEY FACTS, DEBATES, AND EVIDENCE (Stahn, Iverson, and Easterday 2017; Berdal and Ucko 2009). 50 percent to 80 percent of ex-combatants return to agriculture-based livelihoods (Stahn, Iverson, and Easterday 2017 citing Bruch et al. 2018). With a clear connection between natural resources and peacebuilding priorities, the World Bank can help consolidate peace by addressing some of the root causes of conflict and providing a foundation for long-term sustainable development. 23 3 SECTION Operational Implications SECTION 3 OPERATIONAL IMPLICATIONS Relevant Bank Policies The objective of the WBG Strategy for FCV 2020-2025 is to enhance the WBG’s effectiveness to support countries in addressing the drivers and impacts of FCV and strengthening their resilience, especially for their most vulnerable and marginalized populations. The FCV Strategy articulates four overlapping, reinforcing pillars of engagement to meet this objective: (i) Preventing violent conflict and interpersonal violence; (ii) Remaining engaged during crises and active conflicts to protect human capital and institutions; (iii) Helping countries transition out of fragility; and (iv) Mitigating the spillovers and impacts of FCV. The FCV Strategy explicitly recognizes the importance of climate change as a driver of FCV and threat multiplier, as well as the need to address both the environmental impacts and drivers of FCV. The Strategy calls for an urgent shift from reactive to proactive, anticipatory responses to address the underlying drivers that jeopardize livelihoods and fuel conflicts, including environment- and climate-related factors. Delivering on the Bank’s shift toward preventing conflict underscores the importance of understanding the role the environment and natural resources can have along these four pillars of engagement and the conflict cycle. The WBG’s Action Plan on Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience (2019) underscores the important role of social resilience, focusing on the most vulnerable populations, to address adaptation and mitigation efforts. The objective of the Action Plan is to help countries identify key areas of action to achieve more systematic climate resilience, with special attention given to the poor, those affected by FCV, and small island states. The Action Plan specifies better understanding and acting on the potential impacts of climate change in FCV as a priority area and supports scaling up support for climate risks associated with migration, food security, and economic shocks. It provides a framework for mainstreaming systematic climate risk management into development, but these entry points also offer an opportunity for climate and conflict-informed analyses and investments. The World Bank’s orientation towards conflict prevention and climate adaptation presents a key opportunity for the many geographies where these objectives converge. The World Bank is well-positioned to address critical FCV dimensions through its work with governments and communities at each stage of the conflict cycle. A conflict-sensitivity lens applied throughout the various stages of project and program development and implementation contributes to key peacebuilding priorities, while also building resilience into the system and ensuring positive development and environment outcomes are sustained. Therefore, any dollar amount invested can benefit from a better understanding and a more intentional focus on the multiple FCV challenges adding pressure on natural resources, which are increasingly compounded by climate variability and change. Along similar lines, the Country Climate and Development Report is a core diagnostic tool to highlight where climate and development intersect, taking into account key issues like social and economic exclusion. The reports are designed to address disconnects between national climate and development policies and to identify actions with potential for high impact in reducing GHG emissions and building climate resilience. While most countries have some form of climate strategy, usually set out within Nationally Determined Contributions, current goals remain disconnected from national development policies and economic strategies. Country Climate and Development Reports aim to bridge this gap, providing clarity on responsibilities and accountability across sectors and between government institutions. 25 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS Moreover, the latest Operational Policy (OP) 2.30 on Development Cooperation and Conflict underscores the position of the World Bank to inform peace agreements. Environmental peace dividends can act as an incentive to sustain negotiations, supported by insights on governance and legal frameworks; transparent sharing of natural resource revenues and benefits; and confidence-building measures to foster the long-term management of natural resources and support the country’s transition out of conflict and on a path to sustainable development. At the same time, it is critical that natural resource provisions in peace agreements, the peacebuilding process, and post-conflict operations are sensitive to the existing and future role of the environment in the conflict. This includes incorporating a climate lens to reflect the effects of climate change in risk reduction strategies. Existing WBG corporate strategies–such as the WBG FCV Strategy (2020-2025) and the Gender Strategy (2016-2023)–have underscored how women and girls are disproportionately impacted by conflict and fragility due to systemic gender inequalities, harmful gender norms, and increased exposure to risks of gender- based violence. These strategies set out on closing gender gaps in access to economic opportunities, assets, and human capital, and address harmful gender norms as priority areas of WBG engagement. In FCV settings in particular, this engagement can include advancing women’s participation in NRM for conflict prevention and resolution, addressing the spillovers of FCV such as the environmental impacts of displacement, and mitigating the gendered impacts of climate-related shocks and conflict-related environmental degradation. Alignment with the FCV Strategy and Operationalization The FCV Strategy’s four pillars serve as an illustrative structure that recognizes the cyclical nature of conflict and its tides. The recommendations provided follow this paradigm and are intended to be overlapping, reinforcing, and open to interpretation. In practice, development teams seize the opportunities available to them and the realities of the local political economy. This work seeks to draw attention to the potential sequence of risks and opportunities, but it is important to emphasize that one cannot assume the flow to be linear or uniform over space and that engagement is often opportunistic. This work aims to help identify such opportunities and their significance to highlight the important role of the World Bank’s environment and NRM interventions and of the environment-conflict nexus in mitigating risks. 26 SECTION 3 OPERATIONAL IMPLICATIONS PILLAR I Preventing Violent Conflict and Interpersonal Violence Throughout the Conflict Cycle PRACTICAL RISKS ASSOCIATED WORLD BANK STRATEGY AND PRIORITIES EXAMPLES OF WORLD BANK APPLICATION OF WITH NATURAL PROGRAMMING THE PILLAR RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT Acknowledgement Causing tensions Advance peacebuilding priorities through Articulate differentiated response and Conflict and grievances NRM and good resource governance to FCV systematically through Sensitivity: analytical products identifying key Fueling and Seize opportunities to acknowledge Tackling risks and drivers of fragility and factors of financing conflict environment-conflict linkages   grievances early resilience and strengthening Competition and Highlight governance support that Program-Level sources of resilience displacement accompanies climate mitigation and before tensions turn increasingly add adaptation efforts  Risk and Resilience Assessments to crises stress to the Target issues that are key for resilience Country Partnership Frameworks environment against drivers of fragility and conflict  Systematic Country Diagnostics Measure impacts of interventions on target Peace lens and conflict filters issues and human vulnerability   Project-Level Capitalize on opportunities to mitigate risks   Context analysis and integrated solutions with an intersectional lens Factor in impacts of conflict and fragility Basic safety and security throughout the project cycle   Provision of basic services Use gender-sensitive NRM for conflict prevention and resolution Restoring government functions Anticipate and manage adverse impacts Inclusive political processes and associated with increasing or decreasing dispute resolution mechanisms value or quantity of natural resources Economic employment, revitalization, and livelihoods IEG has emphasized the importance of an environmental lens at the project level to understand how ongoing and planned interventions in productive sectors may or may not be triggering tensions around natural resources, as well as at the programmatic level through diagnostic tools, such as the RRA. Upstream, the RRAs can support an understanding of the risks in FCS to help avoid exacerbating or generating conflicts, while also identifying opportunities to prevent violence and advance resilient development efforts. IEG’s Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Nexus (2021) evaluation found that the programs that have yielded the largest benefits environmentally and socially were those where threatened areas and vulnerable resource users were carefully targeted. The WBG has had success in measuring the biophysical outcomes of its natural resource interventions, but the evaluation determined that it does not always measure the social welfare and community-level consequences or adequately address the vulnerability of resource-dependent people where resource degradation threats are prominent. This raises the importance of examining the social impacts interventions have on those that are resource-dependent throughout the project cycle to identify the users and their specific needs to mitigate harmful impacts on their livelihoods. Impacts on land and communities should be assessed and evaluated from the programmatic to the project level. Natural resource and climate change adaptation and mitigation solutions must go beyond the biophysical and consider sociopolitical contexts and impacts so that they are sustainable. 27 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS Pillar II Remaining Engaged During Crisis Situations to Protect Human Capital and Institutions PRACTICAL APPLICATION RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH NATURAL WORLD BANK EXAMPLES OF WORLD OF THE PILLAR RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT STRATEGY AND BANK PROGRAMMING PRIORITIES Mitigation: Building Damaged by conflict directly and indirectly Seize entry points to Environment and Social resilience, protecting Coping strategies for immediate survival as mitigate risks and Framework essential institutions, and opposed to sustainable long-term resource build resilience Support for livelihoods delivering critical services management and use Stabilize situations and food security Habitat, biodiversity loss, and pollution where there is Community-driven prolonged, medium- development approach Extracted to fuel and finance conflict intensity conflict Weapon of war to intimidate and weaken and where natural Partnerships with opposition and control populations living in resources may fuel humanitarian agencies contested areas conflict and local actors (especially women and Governance vacuum–neglect of key Provide a youth) resource management functions, expansion development of illegal and criminal exploitation of natural approach that is Strengthening traditional resources, loss of tenure security complementary to dispute resolution humanitarian relief mechanisms and Unfavorable resource contracts and improving their inclusivity and that is conducive concessions due to urgent need for cash, to sustaining weak negotiating power in a high-risk livelihoods beyond the environment, and reduced public oversight immediate-term CONTEXT AND KEY STATISTICS: » From 1950 to 2000, more than 90 percent of major armed conflicts with at least 1,000 battle deaths took place in countries with biodiversity hotspots (Hanson et al. 2009). Of these conflicts, 81 percent took place directly within a hotspot. These rich habitats, some of which repeatedly fall under the shadow of violent conflict, cover only 2.3 percent of the Earth but host half of the world’s endemic species (GEF 2020 citing Mittermeier et al. 2004). » Violent conflict can drive habitat loss and have significant, consistently negative effects on biodiversity, with these dynamics taking the form of heterogenous and context- specific patterns within various spatial and temporal scales. Conflict was the most important predictor of wildlife decline for large-mammal populations in Africa from 1946 to 2010 (Daskin and Pringle 2018). Yet, armed conflict can shield land from development activities by displacing resident populations and imposing access restrictions in connection with landmines, buffer zones, or areas guarded for military cover and training exercises. For example, in El Salvador, mass migration to urban areas and abroad during the country’s civil war drove forest recovery (Ganzenmüller, Sylvester, and Castro-Nunez 2022 citing Hecht et al. 2006), and in Sierra Leone, deforestation was significantly lower in areas affected by conflict (Ibid citing Burgess, Miguel, and Stanton 2015). However, the impacts of conflict on deforestation, in particular, are variable. Conflict increased deforestation in the Democratic Republic of Congo, but reduced mining associated with deforestation (Ganzenmüller, Sylvester, and Castro-Nunez 2022 citing Butsic et al. 2015). Although Rwanda did not experience a significant net change in forest cover between times of conflict and peace, local trends demonstrated forest loss near refugee settlements and forest gains due to forced migration (Ibid citing Ordway 2015). 28 SECTION 3 OPERATIONAL IMPLICATIONS » Since the Cold War, natural resource revenues in at least 35 countries have been used to finance armed conflict (Bruch et al. 2019b). The World Atlas of Illicit Flows (2018) identifies environmental crime as the largest financial driver of conflict, constituting 38 percent of conflict and non-state armed group financing. The FCV Strategy maintains that remaining engaged during conflicts and crisis situations contributes to security, stability, and poverty reduction. It posits disengagement as a last resort, which can impact the most vulnerable, and a commitment to working across the humanitarian-development-peace nexus with organizations that have a presence on the ground to complement each other’s work. Operationally, the environment is not treated as a priority during active conflict, but its relevance to extreme natural resource scarcity makes it imperative to pay attention to the associated risks and drivers. Natural resources are a lifeline for livelihoods and food security in FCS contexts, especially during conflict. The high prevalence of subsistence agriculture in many FCS means people can continue feeding themselves even when trade and markets are compromised (Bruch et al. 2019a). However, the threat of conflict, climate change, and population growth due to in-migration compounds the strain on livelihoods, the social fabric, and the resilience of communities living outside of conflict-affected areas in a delicate peace. Natural resources can fuel grievances, and lack of opportunity has been linked to rebel recruitment efforts, highlighting the critical need to provide support for livelihoods. Conflict can thus increase the relevance of World Bank projects focused on the environment and natural resources to build the resilience of communities, deliver critical services, and support livelihoods. As the World Bank increasingly enters areas traditionally under the purview of humanitarian actors, it may contribute a development approach that is complementary to humanitarian relief and that is conducive to sustaining livelihoods beyond the immediate term. During protracted conflict, humanitarian and development actors often find themselves working at the same time and there is growing recognition of the complementary nature of efforts. The WBG can foster resilience in ways not covered by traditional humanitarian responses. The FCV Strategy recognizes the WBG’s comparative advantage for sustained and long-term engagement to support national systems, strengthen core state functions, build institutional resilience and capacity, engage with a wide range of stakeholders, and leverage finance to address the root causes of fragility. Collaboration with humanitarian agencies helps support the most vulnerable. Humanitarian agencies have their own comparative advantages to working in FCS. The World Bank works with governments, although it will sometimes work through UN agencies in the absence of a formal governing structure. As a result, humanitarian agencies such as the UN and International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) have valuable access not available to the WBG, given their ability to work with state and non-state actors to address the needs of communities in FCS. In the midst of high-intensity conflict, there are areas that are not secure in which even local governments struggle to have a presence. Humanitarian agencies have the flexibility to maintain a consistent presence on the front lines to contribute to the resilience of populations and understand the real-time drivers, tensions, and needs beyond the government’s interpretation of beneficiaries’ needs (Kelly et al. 2022). 29 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS Pillar III Helping Countries Transition out of Fragility WHAT THE PILLAR MEANS RISKS ASSOCIATED WORLD BANK STRATEGY AND PRIORITIES EXAMPLES OF WORLD IN PRACTICE WITH NATURAL BANK PROGRAMMING RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT Strengthening the capacity Incentive to undermine Seize opportunities for environmental NRM projects aligned with and legitimacy of core peace peacebuilding and establish a foundation for government priorities   institutions, renewing Illegal exploitation long-term sustainable development  Pollution abatement the social contract, and and trade of natural Support NRM government reform, including in investments to clean the supporting private sector resources peace agreements   consequences of warfare   development Post-conflict tensions, Environment and NRM technical assistance as Extraction governance Breaking cycles of conflict/ including disputes a key entry point for dialogue   and due diligence that violence at a critical time associated with IDPs/ fosters inclusive growth Complement post-conflict rehabilitation with refugee returnees longer-term sustainable development and jobs Build trust in local and national institutions Climate-smart agriculture through inclusive natural resource and livelihood cooperation and capacity-building diversification Restore productive capacity and resilient Supporting the livelihoods reintegration of returnees and ex-combatants CONTEXT AND KEY STATISTICS: » Once conflict ends, there is an important opportunity to transform and (re)build resource systems that, otherwise, may be politically difficult (UNDG and UNECHA 2013). Capitalizing on these opportunities is especially important if natural resources triggered the conflict or threaten the prospects for peace. Conflicts that are linked to natural resources are twice as likely to relapse than other conflicts, on average within five years of a peace agreement (GEF 2020 citing Rustad and Binningsbø 2010). This is especially true for conflicts related to the allocation of land and high-value natural resources such as minerals, oil, and gas. » Between 1989 and 2004, over half of all peace agreements had natural resource provisions (Mason, Sguaitamatti, and Gröbli 2016). Inclusion of natural resource provisions has become more consistent in recent years, with all major peace agreements between 2005 and 2016 containing one or more provisions. » Livelihood insecurity and economic performance are key predictors of peacebuilding failure and fragility (Ide et al. 2021 citing Cederman and Vogt 2017; Gueorguiev et al. 2021). The post-conflict period offers an opening to take advantage of heightened political will to establish reforms (UNDG and UNECHA 2013). The transitional period can be an opportunity to establish environmental and social reforms for sustainable, inclusive NRM to seize economic and political incentives for peace, revenues, and basic services. There is the potential to address land tenure issues and encourage community-based processes for equitable resource access, in addition to transparent natural resource contracts, payments, and expenditures of resource revenues. Building national capacity to manage natural 30 SECTION 3 OPERATIONAL IMPLICATIONS resources, especially high-value ones, is key to attracting private sector investment, negotiating fair resource contracts, managing revenues transparently, investing responsibly, supporting economic diversification, and mitigating the social and environmental impacts of extraction. Poor choices at an early stage can get locked in, emphasizing the importance of early action. Renewable resources are especially critical, and in post-conflict countries, 50 percent to 60 percent of livelihoods are agrarian (Stahn, Iverson, and Easterday 2017 citing Bruch et al. 2018). Renewable natural resources play a critical role in restoring the productive capacity of lands degraded by conflict, negative coping mechanisms, and neglect. Job creation and food security opportunities exist in reforestation and forest restoration, renewable energy programs, and sustainable agriculture, community forestry, fisheries, etc. At the macro level, natural resources are key for the provision of basic services, while at the micro level, effective and sustainable management is key for achieving water security, food security, and access to agricultural inputs post-conflict (Ide et al. 2021 citing Bruch and Muffett 2016). Responsible, equitable, climate-smart approaches to natural resource use can provide new, inclusive opportunities to sustainably support employment and livelihoods, revenues, and the provision of basic services. Natural resources are a vital element of the success of the DDR of ex-combatants, a key step in preventing the recurrence of violence (Stahn, Iverson, and Easterday 2017; Berdal and Ucko 2009). 50 percent to 80 percent of ex-combatants return to agriculture-based livelihoods (Stahn, Iverson, and Easterday 2017 citing Bruch et al. 2018). Projects have built social cohesion by reintegrating returnees and ex-combatants, for example, the Orinoquia Forest Project in Colombia used former combatants as forestry monitors because of their familiarity with the project area. Hence, working with communities to avoid land and resource competition as well as mediating disputes as combatants and IDPs return is imperative. PILLAR IV Mitigating the Spillovers and Impacts of FCV WHAT THE PILLAR RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH WORLD BANK STRATEGY AND EXAMPLES OF WORLD MEANS IN PRACTICE NATURAL RESOURCES AND PRIORITIES BANK PROGRAMMING ENVIRONMENT Addressing spillovers such Conflict between refugees Address the needs of displaced Regional cooperation over as forced displacement, and local communities due to communities shared natural resources as well as shocks competition over natural resources Strengthen inclusive and Early-warning tools and resulting from climate and Decreased carrying capacity sustainable resource governance monitoring environmental challenges at the local, national, and Vulnerability enhanced by climate Climate-risk modeling stressors transboundary level Conflict-sensitive, adaptive Acknowledge and detect disputes management to contain before they escalate emerging risks Climate-sensitive development 31 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS CONTEXT AND KEY STATISTICS: » Forced displacement around the world is at a record high, with total migrant population flows from FCS-to-FCS steadily increasing. In 2021 alone, 23.7 million new internal displacements were caused by natural disasters, compared to the 14.4 million caused by conflict and violence (IDMC 2021). » According to Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal Climate Migration (2021), internal climate migrants in Sub-Saharan Africa could reach 86 million; East Asia and the Pacific, 49 million; South Asia, 40 million; North Africa, 19 million; Latin America, 17 million; and Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 5 million. Green, inclusive, resilient development could reduce the scale of climate migration by 80 percent. Underlying Pillar IV is the recognition that the effects of FCV are not limited to countries in active conflict but are broadly felt. Forced displacement can exert pressure on host communities and countries and can intensify desertification, deforestation, and other forms of resource scarcity. While Pillars I-III above aim to contain the spillovers of FCV by improving community resilience through adaptation and mitigation at the local and national levels, Pillar IV advocates for immediate, concerted action to reduce global emissions. Guiding Principles for Environmental Programming in FCS The starting point for conflict sensitivity across programmatic and project-level action is the assumption that no intervention is neutral, as interventions interact with drivers of fragility and may give rise to positive and/or negative contributions, with different winning and losing parties, intentionally or unintentionally, directly, or indirectly. Understanding the risk associated with working in FCV contexts helps avoid exacerbating or generating conflicts, while also identifying opportunities to prevent violence and advance resilient development efforts. Differentiation is a guiding principle of the FCV Strategy—there are no one-size-fits- all solutions since conflict drivers and dynamics vary. Preventing conflict requires directly addressing key drivers of fragility and strengthening factors of resilience, and the World Bank’s FCV Strategy has committed to strengthening its ability to analyze both. The FCV Strategy encourages the wider adoption of peace lenses and conflict filters to ensure portfolios and operations identify and address fragility drivers and conflict risks where relevant. These filters and lenses are aimed at identifying key project risks and potential mitigating measures. Teams have applied these lenses in order to direct programming and projects toward specific peace and security aims (Box 3.1), covering topics for discussion and analyses to frame dialogue between Country Management Units and operational teams. 32 SECTION 3 OPERATIONAL IMPLICATIONS BOX 3.1 World Bank Peace Lenses and Conflict Filters RESOURCES: • Colombia Cadaster TA Support P160524* World Bank (forthcoming). Peace and Inclusion Lenses Good • Sustainable Low-Carbon Development in Orinoquia Region Practice Note. The guidance is generic so that country teams Project P160680* can adapt it to the realities of their country—it is not intended • Sustainable Development and Green Growth Development to be applied uniformly. This note can be adapted with a focus Policy Loan P161642* on NRM and climate change considerations. • Coca-Growers in a Post-Conflict Development Agenda P162026*  World Bank (2019). A Review of the World Bank’s Experiences Using Conflict Filters and Peace Lenses. Ukraine Governance, Anti-Corruption, and Conflict Filter (2015-2016) EXISTING PEACE LENSES AND CONFLICT FILTERS: Democratic Republic of the Congo ‘Conflict Proofing’ Support (*) highlights environmental projects that either applied a (2015-2016) conflict filter or sought the insights of a peace lens advisory Macedonia Social Filter (2014-2015) group. Nigeria Governance, Gender, and Conflict Filter (2013) Sectoral Specific Filter for Livestock Projects – Conflict Liberia Fragility Lens (2012) Sensitivity and Prevention Check List* Sri Lanka Conflict and Reconciliation Filter (2010) Myanmar Inclusion and Peace Lens (2018) Nepal Peace Filter (2009) • Myanmar Forest Restoration, Development, and Investment Kyrgyzstan Conflict Filter (2012-2015) Program P168254* • Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project COUNTRY LENSES AND FILTERS UNDER DEVELOPMENT: P146482* Mindanao Peace Lens Colombia Peace Lens (2015-2017) Iraq Political Economy Analysis (with a peace lens component) • Colombian Amazon Heart Project P156239* Tajikistan Inclusion and Resilience Lens • Colombian Amazon Heart Project – Additional Financing Yemen Peace and Inclusion Lens P158003* Source: World Bank. • First Programmatic Territorial Development Policy Financing P158520* Adopting an intersectional lens can help to integrate the interplay between gender, race, ethnicity, sexual orientation, and age across projects in order to address the differentiated needs and impacts of conflict and environmental degradation on various groups. Factoring in how social inclusion intersects with gender can improve the design of interventions and gender analyses to adequately identify specific groups that have been particularly affected by the gender-conflict-environment nexus and their differentiated needs. Communities play an influential role in identifying and addressing risks. Local knowledge and needs can be integrated into larger, national datasets. Real-time data to and from communities can support the transparent sharing of information, improve coordination and collective action across different scales, and serve as an early warning system to support resilience against environmental challenges and violence. Projects can learn from positive and negative experiences internally and externally to inform future programming. Engagement in FCV contexts benefits from the inclusion of adaptive management decisions made at both project and program levels. Flexibility needs to be built into projects to address shifting dynamics associated with fragility and conflict and specify how a project will adapt if security conditions worsen (i.e., mid-course correction). 33 References SECTIONS 2 & 3 Berdal, Mats R., and David H. Ucko, eds. 2009. Reintegrating Armed Groups After Conflict: Politics, Violence and Transition. Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon; New York: Routledge. Bruch, Carl, David Jensen, Marc Levy, Richard A. Matthew, and Erika Weinthal. 2019a. “Textbook for Massive Open Online Course on ‘Environmental Security and Sustaining Peace.’” Environmental Peacebuilding Association. https://www.epmooc.org/assets/Uploads/5d6f176bcb14a.pdf. Bruch, Carl, David Jensen, Mikiyasu Nakayama, and John Unruh. 2018. “Post-Conflict Peacebuilding and Natural Resources: The Promise and the Peril.” Washington, DC: Environmental Law Institute. Bruch, Carl, David Jensen, Mikiyasu Nakayama, and Jon Unruh. 2019b. “The Changing Nature of Conflict, Peacebuilding, and Environmental Cooperation.” Environmental Law Reporter News & Analysis 49 (2). Bruch, Carl, and Carroll Muffett, eds. 2016. Governance, Natural Resources and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. Post-Conflict Peacebuilding and Natural Resource Management. Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Earthscan. Burgess, Robin, Edward Miguel, and Charlotte Stanton. 2015. “War and Deforestation in Sierra Leone.” Environmental Research Letters 10 (9): 095014. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/9/095014. Burke, Marshall, Solomon M. Hsiang, and Edward Miguel. 2015. “Climate and Conflict.” Annual Review of Economics 7 (1): 577–617. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-080614-115430. Butsic, Van, Matthias Baumann, Anja Shortland, Sarah Walker, and Tobias Kuemmerle. 2015. “Conservation and Conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo: The Impacts of Warfare, Mining, and Protected Areas on Deforestation.” Biological Conservation 191 (November): 266–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2015.06.037. Cederman, Lars-Erik, and Manuel Vogt. 2017. “Dynamics and Logics of Civil War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 61 (9): 1992–2016. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002717721385. Clement, Viviane, Kanta Kumari Rigaud, Alex de Sherbinin, Bryan Jones, Susana Adamo, Jacob Schewe, Nian Sadiq, and Elham Shabahat. 2021. Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal Climate Migration. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ handle/10986/36248. Daskin, Joshua H., and Robert M. Pringle. 2018. “Warfare and Wildlife Declines in Africa’s Protected Areas.” Nature 553 (7688): 328–32. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25194. Detges, Adrien, Daniel Klingenfeld, Christian König, Benjamin Pohl, Lukas Rüttinger, Jacob Schewe, Barbora Sedova, and Janani Vivekananda. 2020. 10 Insights on Climate Impacts and Peace: A Summary of What We Know. Berlin: Adelphi; Potsdam: The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). https://berlin-climate-security-conference.adelphi.de/sites/berlin-climate-security- conference.adelphi.de/files/documents/10_insights_on_climate_impacts_and_peace_report.pdf. Ganzenmüller, Raphael, Janelle M. Sylvester, and Augusto Castro-Nunez. 2022. “What Peace Means for Deforestation: An Analysis of Local Deforestation Dynamics in Times of Conflict and Peace in Colombia.” Frontiers in Environmental Science 10 (February): 803368. https://doi.org/10.3389/ fenvs.2022.803368. GEF (Global Environment Facility). 2020. Evaluation of GEF Support in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations. Washington, DC: Independent Evaluation Office. https://www.gefieo.org/sites/default/ files/documents/evaluations/fragility-2020.pdf. Ghani, Tarek, and Robert Malley. 2020. “Climate Change Doesn’t Have to Stoke Conflict.” Foreign Affairs, September 28, 2020. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ethiopia/2020-09-28/ climate-change-doesnt-have-stoke-conflict. Gueorguiev, Nikolay, Kenji Moriyama, Jiro Honda, Keyra Primus, Mouhamadou Sy, Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi, and Paulomi Mehta. 2021. “Avoid a Fall or Fly Again: Turning Points of State Fragility.” IMF Working Papers 2021 (133): 1. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513573687.001. 34 Hanson, Thor, Thomas M. Brooks, Gustavo A. B. Da Fonseca, Michael Hoffmann, John F. Lamoreux, Gary Machlis, Cristina G. Mittermeier, Russell A. Mittermeier, and John D. Pilgrim. 2009. “Warfare in Biodiversity Hotspots.” Conservation Biology 23 (3): 578–87. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523- 1739.2009.01166.x. Hecht, Susanna B., Susan Kandel, Ileana Gomes, Nelson Cuellar, and Herman Rosa. 2006. “Globalization, Forest Resurgence, and Environmental Politics in El Salvador.” World Development 34 (2): 308–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.09.005. Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research. n.d. “HIIK dataset 2018 1.1.” Accessed August 11, 2022. https://hiik.de/data-and-maps/datasets/?lang=en. ICRC (International Committee of the Red Cross). 2020. When Rain Turns to Dust: Understanding and Responding to the Combined Impact of Armed Conflicts and the Climate and Environment Crisis on People’s Lives. Geneva: ICRC. https://www.icrc.org/sites/default/files/topic/file_plus_list/ rain_turns_to_dust_climate_change_conflict.pdf. Ide, Tobias, Michael Brzoska, Jonathan F. Donges, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner. 2020. “Multi- Method Evidence for When and How Climate-Related Disasters Contribute to Armed Conflict Risk.” Global Environmental Change 62 (May): 102063. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. gloenvcha.2020.102063. Ide, Tobias, Carl Bruch, Alexander Carius, Ken Conca, Geoff Dabelko, Richard Matthew, and Erika Weinthal. 2021. “The Past and Future(s) of Environmental Peacebuilding.” International Affairs 97 (1): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiaa177. IDMC (International Displacement Monitoring Center). 2021. “Global Internal Displacement Database.” https://www.internal-displacement.org/database/displacement-data. IEG (Independent Evaluation Group). 2014. World Bank Group Assistance to Low-Income Fragile and Conflict-Affected States: An Independent Evaluation. Washington, DC: World Bank. https:// openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/16999. IEG (Independent Evaluation Group). 2021. The Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Nexus: An Evaluation of the World Bank’s Support for Sustainable and Inclusive Natural Resource Management (2009–19). Washington, DC: World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/35480. IMF (International Monetary Fund). 2020. “Angola: Confronting the COVID-19 Pandemic and the Oil Price Shock.” International Monetary Fund. September 21, 2020. https://www.imf.org/en/News/ Articles/2020/09/18/na-angola-confronting-the-covid-19-pandemic-and-the-oil-price-shock. Kelly, Lauren, Adjami Mirna, Hassan Mowlid Yasin, Tracy Hart, and Bann Zahir. 2022. “Defueling Conflict: Natural Resource Governance as a Pathway to Peace.” Panel discussion at the Fragility Forum 2022 in Washington, D.C, World Bank, March 17, 2022. Mason, Simon J. A., Damiano A. Sguaitamatti, and María del Pilar Ramírez Gröbli. 2016. “Stepping Stones to Peace? Natural Resource Provisions in Peace Agreements.” In Governance, Natural Resources, and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding, edited by Carl Bruch, Carroll Muffet, and Sandra S. Nichols, 1st ed., 71–120. Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Earthscan, 2015. | Series: Post-conflict peacebuilding and natural resource management: Routledge. https://doi. org/10.4324/9780203109793-4. Mittermeier, Russell A., Norman Meyers, Michael Hoffman, John Pilgrim, Thomas Brooks, Christina Goettsch Mittermeier, John Lamoreaux, and Gustavo A. B. Da Fonseca. 2004. Hotspots Revisited: Earth’s Biologically Richest and Most Endangered Ecoregions. Mexico City: CEMEX. Nellemann, Christian, Mark Shaw, and Jürgen Stock. 2018. World Atlas of Illicit Flows. Edited by R. Henriksen, R. Pravettoni, D. Stewart, M. Kotsovou, M.A.J. Schlingemann, and T. Reitano. A RHIPTO-INTERPOL-GI Assessment. RHIPTO - Norwegian Center for Global Analyses, INTERPOL, and the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. http://globalinitiative.net/wp- content/uploads/2018/09/Atlas-Illicit-Flows-FINAL-WEB-VERSION-copia-compressed.pdf. Ordway, Elsa M. 2015. “Political Shifts and Changing Forests: Effects of Armed Conflict on Forest Conservation in Rwanda.” Global Ecology and Conservation 3 (January): 448–60. https://doi. org/10.1016/j.gecco.2015.01.013. Rustad, Siri A., and Helga M. Binningsbø. 2010. “Rapid Recurrence: Natural Resources, Armed Conflict, and Peace.” Working Paper. Oslo, Norway: Centre for the Study of Civil War. 35 Rüttinger, Lukas. 2020. Climate-Fragility Policy Paper: Climate Change in the United Nations Peacebuilding Commission and Fund. Berlin: Climate Security Expert Network. Schellens, Marie K., and Arnaud Diemer. 2020. “Natural Resource Conflicts: Definition and Three Frameworks to Aid Analysis.” In Partnerships for the Goals, edited by Walter Leal Filho, Anabela Marisa Azul, Luciana Brandli, Amanda Lange Salvia, and Tony Wall. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Cham: Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-71067-9_81-2. Schwartzstein, Peter. 2021. “How We Misunderstand the Magnitude of Climate Risks–and Why That Contributes to Controversy.” New Security Beat (blog). January 12, 2021. https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2021/01/ misunderstand-magnitude-climate-risks-contributes-controversy/. Stahn, Carsten, Jens Iverson, and Jennifer S. Easterday, eds. 2017. Environmental Protection and Transitions from Conflict to Peace: Clarifying Norms, Principles, and Practices. Vol. 1. Oxford University Press. https://doi. org/10.1093/oso/9780198784630.001.0001. UNDG (United Nations Development Group) and UNECHA (United Nations Executive Committee on Humanitarian Affairs). 2013. “Natural Resource Management in Transition Settings.” Guidance Note. https://unsdg.un.org/ sites/default/files/UNDG-ECHA_NRM_guidance_Jan2013.pdf. UN-IFTPA (United Nations Interagency Framework Team for Preventative Action). 2012. “Strengthening Capacity for Conflict-Sensitive Natural Resource Management.” Toolkit and Guidance for Preventing and Managing Land and Natural Resources Conflict. https://www.un.org/en/land-natural-resources-conflict/pdfs/GN_Capacity.pdf. World Bank. 2020. “COVID-19 and Low Oil Prices Push Millions of Iraqis into Poverty.” World Bank. November 11, 2020. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/11/11/new-world-bank-report-calls-for-urgent- fiscal-stimulus-and-economic-reforms-to-help-the-poor-and-the-most-vulnerable-in-iraq. 36 1 SECTION 1 ANNEX QUESTIONNAIRE Resources 37 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS Key Tools and Orienting Material for Understanding and Managing Natural Resource Conflicts Courses and Platforms Bruch, Carl, David Jensen, Marc Levy, Richard A. Matthew, and Erika Weinthal. 2019. “Textbook for Massive Open Online Course on ‘Environmental Security and Sustaining Peace.’” Environmental Peacebuilding Association, Washington, DC. Environmental Peacebuilding Association. 2022. Environmental Peacebuilding Knowledge Platform. A repository for a wide range of information on environmental peacebuilding, including a comprehensive library and newsletter. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). “Climate Change, Peace, and Security.” UN CC: Learn (online course). WBG Resources RELEVANT POLICIES AND STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS World Bank. 2020. World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence 2020-2025. Washington, DC: World Bank. OP 2.30 Development Cooperation and Conflict Tall, Arame, and Carter J. Brandon. 2019. The World Bank Group’s Action Plan on Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience: Managing Risks for a More Resilient Future. Washington, DC: World Bank. United Nations and World Bank. 2018. Pathways for Peace: Inclusive Approaches to Preventing Violent Conflict. Washington, DC: World Bank. EVALUATIONS AND STUDIES Bannon, Ian, and Paul Collier, eds. 2003. Natural Resources and Violent Conflict: Options and Actions. Washington, DC: World Bank. Barron, Patrick, Suh Yoon Kang, Nikolas Myint. Forthcoming. “Peace and Inclusion Lenses Good Practice Note.” World Bank, Washington, DC. Harwell, Emily, Douglas Farah, Arthur G. Blundell. 2011. Forests, Fragility, and Conflict: Overview and Case Studies. Program on Forests (PROFOR). Washington, DC: World Bank. 38 ANNEX 1 RESOURCES IEG (Independent Evaluation Group). 2021. The Natural Resource Degradation and Vulnerability Nexus: An Evaluation of the World Bank’s Support for Sustainable and Inclusive Natural Resource Management (2009–19). Washington, DC: World Bank. IEG (Independent Evaluation Group). 2021. World Bank Engagement in Situations of Conflict: An Evaluation of FY10-20 Experience. Washington, DC: World Bank. Kang, Suh Yoon, and Patrick Barron. 2019. “A Review of the World Bank’s Experiences Using Conflict Filters and Peace Lenses.” World Bank, Washington, DC. Kim, Jeeyon, Ryan Sheely, and Carly Schmidt. 2020. Social Capital and Social Cohesion Measurement Toolkit for Community-Driven Development Operations. Washington, DC: World Bank. Ríos, Mauricio O., Florian Bruyas, and Jodi Liss. 2015. Preventing Conflict in Resource-Rich Countries: The Extractive Industries Value Chain as a Framework for Conflict Prevention. Washington, DC: World Bank. Ruckstuhl, Sandra. 2009. Renewable Natural Resources: Practical Lessons for Conflict Sensitive Development. Washington, DC: World Bank. Ruckstuhl, Sandra. 2012. “Conflict Sensitive Water Supply: Lessons from Operations.” Social Development Working Paper No. 127, World Bank, Washington, DC. Sadoff, Claudia W., Edoardo Borgomeo, and Dominick de Waal. 2017. Turbulent Waters: Pursuing Water Security in Fragile Contexts. Washington, DC: World Bank. GENDER Program on Forests (PROFOR). 2017. “Gender and Forest Landscapes: Enhancing Development Impacts of Projects and Programs.” Brief. World Bank. 2015. World Bank Group Gender Strategy (FY16-23): Gender Equality, Poverty Reduction, and Inclusive Growth. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2018. Environment and Natural Resources Global Practice: Towards Implementing the WBG Gender Strategy Follow-up Note (FY19-FY21). Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2022. Gender Tag for Impact: Good Practice Note. Washington, DC: World Bank. External Resources STRATEGIES AND TOOLKITS Ajroud, Brittany, Nathalie Al-Zyoud, Lydia Cardona, Janet Edmond, Danny Pavitt, and Amanda Woomer. 2017. Environmental Peacebuilding Training Manual. Arlington, VA: Conservation International. Black, Richard, Joshua Busby, Geoff Dabelko, Cedric de Coning, Hafsa Maalim, Claire McAllister, Melvis Ndiloseh, et al. 2022. Environment of Peace: Security in a New Era of Risk. Stockholm: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Crawford, Alex, and Angie Dazé. Migration and Conservation: A Toolkit for Conservation and Development Practitioners. Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). The Programme Clinic: Designing Conflict-Sensitive Interventions– Approaches to Working in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Contexts. Participant’s Workbook. Rome: FAO. 39 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS Hammil, Anne, Alec Crawford, Robert Craig, Robert Malpas, and Richard Matthew. 2009. Conflict-Sensitive Conservation Practitioners’ Manual. Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development. ICRC (International Committee of the Red Cross). 2020. When Rain Turns to Dust: Understanding and Responding to the Combined Impact of Armed Conflicts and the Climate and Environment Crisis on People’s Lives. Geneva: ICRC. Mercy Corps. 2021. Addressing the Climate-Conflict Nexus: Evidence, Insights, and Future Directions. Mercy Corps. Schellens, Marie K., and Arnaud Diemer. 2020. “Natural Resource Conflicts: Definition and Three Frameworks to Aid Analysis.” In Partnerships for the Goals, edited by Walter Leal Filho, Anabela Marisa Azul, Luciana Brandli, Amanda Lange Salvia, and Tony Wall. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Cham: Springer International Publishing. Tänzler, Dennis, and Nikolas Scherer. 2018. Guidelines for Conflict-Sensitive Adaptation to Climate Change. Germany: Umweltbundesamt. UNDG (United Nations Development Group) and UNECHA (United Nations Executive Committee on Humanitarian Affairs). 2013. “Natural Resource Management in Transition Settings.” Guidance Note. Includes questions to support the analysis of natural resources in transition settings, including the conflict drivers related to extractive industries, renewable resources, and land. UNDPA (United Nations Department of Political Affairs) and UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2015. Natural Resources and Conflict: A Guide for Mediation Practitioners. New York: UNDPA and UNEP. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2022. Addressing Climate-Related Security Risks: Conflict Sensitivity for Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainable Livelihoods - Guidance Note. Nairobi: UNEP. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2022. Addressing Climate-Related Security Risks: Conflict Sensitivity for Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainable Livelihoods - Toolbox. Nairobi: UNEP. UN-IFTPA (United Nations Interagency Framework Team for Preventative Action). 2011. “Conflict-Prevention in Resource-Rich Economies.” Toolkit and Guidance for Preventing and Managing Land and Natural Resources Conflict. UN-IFTPA (United Nations Interagency Framework Team for Preventative Action). 2012. “Strengthening Capacity for Conflict-Sensitive Natural Resource Management.” Toolkit and Guidance for Preventing and Managing Land and Natural Resources Conflict. Includes respective chapters on strengthening capacity to manage disputes over land, renewable resources, and extractive resources. ANALYSES AND LESSONS LEARNED Cao, Yue, Tilly Alcayna, Adriana Quevedo, and Jim Jarvie. 2021. Exploring the Conflict Blind Spots in Climate Adaptation Finance. Synthesis Report. Supporting Pastoralism and Agriculture in Recurrent and Protracted Crises (SPAC). GEF (Global Environment Facility). 2020. Evaluation of GEF Support in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations. Washington, DC: GEF Independent Evaluation Office. Ide, Tobias, Carl Bruch, Alexander Carius, Ken Conca, Geoff Dabelko, Richard Matthew, and Erika Weinthal. 2021. “The Past and Future(s) of Environmental Peacebuilding.” International Affairs 97 (1): 1–16. 40 ANNEX 1 RESOURCES Mercy Corps. 2015. Pathways from Peace to Resilience: Evidence from the Greater Horn of Africa on the Links Between Conflict Management and Resilience to Food Security Shocks. Mercy Corps and USAID. Mercy Corps. 2020. Climate Change and Conflict: Lessons from Emerging Practice. Edinburgh: Mercy Corps. Rüttinger, Lukas, Raquel Munayer, Pia van Ackern, and Florian Titze. 2022. The Nature of Conflict and Peace: The Links Between Environment, Security, and Peace and Their Importance for the United Nations. Gland: WWF International; Berlin: Adelphi. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2009. From Conflict to Peacebuilding: The Role of Natural Resources and the Environment. Nairobi: UNEP. GENDER Castañeda Carney, Itzá, Laura Sabater, Cate Owren, and A.E. Boyer. 2020. Gender-Based Violence and Environment Linkages: The Violence of Inequality. Edited by Jamie Wen. Gland: IUCN. Joint Programme on Women, Natural Resources, and Peace. 2022. Knowledge Platform on Gender, Natural Resources, Climate, and Peace. Siles, Jackelline, Maria Prebble, Jamie Wen, Corinne Hart, and Heidi Schuttenberg. 2019. Advancing Gender in the Environment: Gender in Fisheries—A Sea of Opportunities. Washington, DC: IUCN and USAID. Smith, Elizabeth S. 2022. “Gender Dimensions of Climate Insecurity.” Insights on Peace and Security No. 4, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm. Smith, Jessica M., Lauren Olosky, and Jennifer Grosman Fernández. 2021. The Climate-Gender-Conflict Nexus: Amplifying Women’s Contributions at the Grassroots. Washington, DC: The Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace, and Security. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), UN Women (United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women), UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), and DPPA (United Nations Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs) / PBSO (Peacebuilding Support Office). 2020. Gender, Climate, & Security: Sustaining Inclusive Peace on the Frontlines of Climate Change. Nairobi and New York: UNEP, UN Women, DPPA/UNPBSO, and UNDP. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), UN Women (United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women), and UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2019. Promoting Gender- Responsive Approaches to Natural Resource Management for Peace in North Kordofan, Sudan. Nairobi and New York: UNEP, UN Women, and UNDP. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), UN Women (United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women), UNPBSO (United Nations Peacebuilding Support Office), and UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2013. Women and Natural Resources: Unlocking the Peacebuilding Potential. Nairobi and New York: UNEP, UN Women, UNPBSO, and UNDP. 41 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS Post-Conflict Tools and Resources UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme). 2013. The Role of Natural Resources in Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration: Addressing Risks and Seizing Opportunities. Nairobi: UNEP. POLICY BRIEFS AND CHECKLISTS Coyle, Ilona, Carl Bruch, David Jensen, Alec Crawford, and Adam Harris. 2014. “Natural Resource Programming in Post-Conflict Situations.” Policy Brief No. 8, UNEP and the Environmental Law Institute, Nairobi and Washington, DC. Hegazi, Farah, and Katongo Seyuba. 2022. “The Social Side of Climate Change Adaptation: Reducing Conflict Risk.” Policy Brief, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm. Jensen, David, Alec Crawford, and Carl Bruch. 2014. “Water and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding.” Policy Brief No. 4, UNEP and the Environmental Law Institute, Nairobi and Washington, DC. Jensen, David, Alec Crawford, Peter Whitten, Carl Bruch, Adam Harris, and Gwen Brown. 2013. “Land and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding.” Policy Brief No. 3, UNEP and the Environmental Law Institute, Nairobi and Washington, DC. Jensen, David, Alec Crawford, Peter Whitten, Ilonna Coyle, Carl Bruch, Mohammad Aslami, and Gwen Brown. “High-Value Natural Resources and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding.” Policy Brief No. 1, UNEP and the Environmental Law Institute, Nairobi and Washington, DC. Jensen, David, Peter Whitten, Ilonna Coyle, Carl Bruch, Mohammad Aslami, and Gwen Brown. “Assessing and Restoring Natural Resources in Post-Conflict Peacebuilding.” Policy Brief No. 2, UNEP and the Environmental Law Institute, Nairobi and Washington, DC. Meijer, Karen, and Katongo Seyuba. 2022. “The Role of Development Actors in Responding to Environment and Security Links.” Policy Brief, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm. Mobjörk, Malin, Florian Krampe, and Kheira Tarif. 2020. “Pathways of Climate Insecurity: Guidance for Policymakers.” Policy Brief, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm. BOOKS WITH CASE STUDIES Bruch, Carl, Carroll Muffet, and Sandra S. Nichols, eds. 2017. Governance, Natural Resources, and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. London: Routledge. Jensen, David, and Steve Lonergan, eds. 2012. Assessing and Restoring Natural Resources in Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. London: Routledge. Lujala, Päivi, and Siri Aas Rustad, eds. 2011. High-Value Natural Resources and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. London: Routledge. Unruh, Jon, and Rhodri C. Williams, eds. 2013. Land and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. London: Routledge. Weinthal, Erika, Jessica Troell, and Mikiyasu Nakayama, eds. 2014. Water and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. London: Routledge. Young, Helen, and Lisa Goldman, eds. 2015. Livelihoods, Natural Resources, and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. London: Routledge. 42 ANNEX 1 RESOURCES Additional Resource-Specific Resources LAND Boudreaux, Karol, and Daniel Abrahams. 2022. Land & Conflict: A Toolkit for Intervention 2.0. Washington, DC: USAID. UN-IFTPA (United Nations Interagency Framework Team for Preventative Action). 2012. “Land and Conflict.” Toolkit and Guidance for Preventing and Managing Land and Natural Resources Conflict. WATER Kim, Kyungmee, Emilie Broek, Elizabeth Smith, David Michel, Erwin De Nys, and Nicolas Salazar Godoy. 2021. Water Cooperation in the Horn of Africa: Addressing Drivers of Conflict and Strengthening Resilience. Stockholm: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Patel, Ekta, Erika Weinthal, Geoff Dabelko, Carl Bruch, Jack Daly, and Nikki Behnke. 2022. Water & Conflict: A Toolkit for Programming. Washington, DC: USAID. Rüttinger, Lukas; Arne Janßen, Christopher Knupp, and Laura Griestop. 2014. From Conflict to Collaboration in Natural Resource Management: A Handbook and Toolkit for Practitioners Working in Aquatic Resource Systems. Collaborating for Resilience. RENEWABLES NON-RENEWABLES UN-IFTPA (United Nations Interagency Framework Team for Preventative Action). 2012. “Extractive Industries and Conflict.” Toolkit and Guidance for Preventing and Managing Land and Natural Resources Conflict. USAID (United States Agency for International Development). 2004. Minerals & Conflict: A Toolkit for Intervention. Washington, DC: USAID. 43 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS Fragility, Conflict, and the Green Transition Business & Human Rights Resource Center. 2021. Renewable Energy & Human Rights Benchmark: Key Findings from the Wind & Solar Sectors. London: Business & Human Rights Resource Center. Business & Human Rights Resource Center. Transition Minerals Tracker. Regional deep dives and resources tracking the human rights implications of the mineral boom powering the transition to a net-zero carbon economy. Church, Clare, and Alex Crawford. 2018. Green Conflict Minerals: the Fuels of Conflict in the Low-Carbon Economy. Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development. Examines the extent to which increased demand for minerals critical to green energy technologies could affect FCV in producing states and explores what would be required of the international community to mitigate these local and national threats. Analyzes solar panels, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and energy storage batteries. De Jong, Terah, Titus Sauerwein, Ludivine Wouters. 2021. Mining and the Green Energy Transition: Review of International Development Challenges and Opportunities. Washington, DC: USAID. IISD (International Institute for Sustainable Development). 2019. Green Conflict Minerals Hotspots. 44 ANNEX 1 RESOURCES Review of the Evidence: Studies on Climate Change and Conflict Risk Detges, Adrien, Daniel Klingenfeld, Christian König, Benjamin Pohl, Lukas Rüttinger, Jacob Schewe, Barbora Sedova, and Janani Vivekananda. 2020. 10 Insights on Climate Impacts and Peace: A Summary of What We Know. Berlin: Adelphi; Potsdam: The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). Summarizes the security risks related to climate change and synthesizes and contextualizes the existing scientific evidence. It does not reflect all aspects of the debate that have emerged across social science but focuses on those that are particularly relevant at the political level. Mercy Corps. 2020. Addressing the Climate-Conflict Nexus in Fragile States: Understanding the Role of Governance. Washington, DC: Mercy Corps. Mobjörk, Malin, Maria-Therese Gustafsson, Hannes Sonnsjö, Sebastian Van Baalen, Lisa Maria Dellmuth, and Niklas Bremberg. 2016. Climate-Related Security Risks: Towards an Integrated Approach. Stockholm: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Mosello, Beatrice, Lukas Rüttinger, Lisa Sauerhammer. 2019. The Climate Change-Conflict Connection–The Current State of Knowledge. Climate Fragility Discussion Paper. Berlin: Adelphi. Summarizes evidence from quantitative and qualitative peer-reviewed research articles and grey literature from development organizations and agencies on the links between climate change, fragility, and conflict. Nett, Katharina, and Lukas Rüttinger. 2016. Insurgency, Terrorism, and Organised Crime in a Warming Climate: Analysing the Links Between Climate Change and Non-State Armed Groups. Berlin: Adelphi. Peters, Katie, Mairi Dupar, Sarah Opitz-Stapleton, Emma Lovell, Mirianna Budimir, Sarah Brown, and Yue Cao. 2020. Climate Change, Conflict, and Fragility: An Evidence Review and Recommendations for Research and Action. London: Overseas Development Institute (ODI). Reiling, Kirby, and Cynthia Brady. 2015. Climate Change and Conflict: An Annex to the USAID Climate-Resilient Development Framework. Washington, DC: USAID. Sweijs, Tim, Marleen de Haan, and Hugo van Manen. 2022. Unpacking the Climate Security Nexus: Seven Pathologies Linking Climate Change to Violent Conflict. The Hague: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. 45 2 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY ANNEX GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS Gender, Conflict, and Environment Linkages 46 ANNEX 2 GENDER, CONFLICT, AND ENVIRONMENT LINKAGES Conflict-environment linkages have deeply rooted gender implications. Gender norms shape how men and women access and control natural resources, are exposed to environmental hazards, and are able to cope with climate-related shocks (UNEP et al. 2020). As the primary providers of food, water, and fuel in many contexts, women are disproportionately affected by changes in the availability of natural resources. They are also often dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources to supplement unpaid or underpaid work to meet their livelihood needs. Structural gender inequalities, discriminatory laws, and adverse gender norms also put them at a further disadvantage to cope with conflict and climate-related shocks when they lack equal access to and control over land, property, and other assets. In Eastern Chad, where rural communities experience chronic food insecurity, droughts, and economic fragility, rigid gender division of labor has constrained women’s agency and opportunities to cope with environmental vulnerability. While men migrate to find new livelihoods, women face gendered barriers that prevent them from running a business, earning an income, or owning land (Ide et al. 2021). These gender gaps can be further exacerbated during conflict due to forced displacement, land grabbing, or the death of male family members. For example, estimates indicate that only 9 percent of women in conflict and post-conflict countries own legal titles to land, compared to 19 percent globally (Women for Women International n.d.). In the West Bank and Gaza, only 5 percent of women own land (Arab World for Research and Development and Palestinian Working Women Society for Development 2020). Similarly, only 3 percent of women in Mali are agricultural landholders (Klugman and Quek 2018). Despite their roles in NRM, women are also excluded from natural resource governance. In the West Bank, for example, women manage domestic water needs and use effective water conservation measures to deal with drought or water scarcity; however, they are excluded from formal water management committees (UNEP et al. 2013). As a global threat multiplier, climate change adds another layer to gender, conflict, and environment linkages by exacerbating the insecurity of vulnerable populations, especially women and girls, through competition over scarce resources, loss of livelihoods, food insecurity, and human mobility (Figure A2.1). In FCV contexts, weak governance, political instability, and violence leave communities particularly ill-equipped to cope with climate-related shocks. Women in FCV contexts also often work in climate- vulnerable sectors and have fewer resources to cope with a changing climate. Close to four in five women who have paid work in fragile and conflict-affected areas work in agriculture, which is a sector characterized by informality and low wages (Christien and Klugman 2020). Research on conditions in Mindanao, Philippines, for example, found that both climate change and conflict increased smallholder female farmers’ vulnerability, especially through the loss of livelihoods, financial assets, and agricultural yield. Women were more disadvantaged as they tended to farm smaller plots, work shorter hours, or limit farming to cash crops (Cagoco-Guiam 2013). These structural gender inequalities put them at a disadvantage in situations of FCV and climate vulnerability. 47 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS FIGURE A2.1 The Conflict-Gender-Climate Nexus Source: World Bank. Original figure for this publication comes from a presentation delivered at the webinar “Addressing Gender, Conflict, and Environment Linkages” based on the findings of the Lake Chad Regional RRA (2021). The conflict-gender-environment nexus also increases the risk of GBV, including sexual violence, IPV, sexual abuse and exploitation, and forced/early marriage. In Darfur, research found that women and girls traveled up to six miles per trip to collect scarce resources, including water, and were subject to GBV by local armed groups when leaving displacement camps. Many traveled at night to avoid midday competition and sun; however, traveling at night increased their vulnerability to sexual assaults (Boyer, Meijer, and Gilligan 2020). In Yemen, where 11.2 million Yemenis are in acute need of water and sanitation (WASH Cluster 2020), women have reported being afraid to travel alone to collect water (Al-Ammar, Patchett, and Shamsan 2019). In Mindanao, Philippines, both conflict and climate change have had negative impacts on women and girls that are mutually reinforcing (Chandra and Elizabeth McNamara 2017). Conflict has particularly marginalized female farmers and the widows of those killed in combat. In addition, natural disasters, and extreme weather events, such as typhoons and droughts, have become more frequent. These situations have increased vulnerability to trafficking, prostitution, and sexual abuse to secure food in local areas affected by resource scarcity and conflict (Cagoco-Guiam 2013). During and in the aftermath of natural disasters, women and girls are also at particular risk of IPV, especially women of lower socioeconomic status (WHO 2002). Poor harvests, livestock loss, lower earnings and livelihoods, and food insecurity due to resource scarcity and environmental degradation can put pressure on men’s traditional roles as breadwinners and increase tensions within the household (Gevers, Musuya, and Bukuluki 2020). Research on the relationship between drought and IPV found that women living in severe and moderate drought faced higher risks of reporting a controlling partner and experiencing physical and sexual violence than women not experiencing drought (Epstein et al. 2020). The study also found a strong association between drought and IPV among adolescent girls and unemployed women. 48 ANNEX 2 GENDER, CONFLICT, AND ENVIRONMENT LINKAGES Climate-induced migration in the context of natural disasters can also increase the exposure of women; lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, plus (LGBTQ+) communities; and people with disability to sexual violence, affecting their physical and mental health, due to overcrowding and unsafe conditions in temporary housing, emergency shelters, and IDP camps (CARE 2020). A 2020 CARE International report also found that women and marginalized groups displaced by climate-related impacts often have less access to relief and recovery resources. Additionally, girls face heightened risks of forced or early marriage in situations of protracted conflict and climate-related shocks (Castañeda Carney et al. 2020). In Yemen, violent conflict and environmental vulnerability have contributed to a threefold rise in already-high rates of child marriage as a result of economic collapse, lack of security, and food insecurity (UNOCHA 2018). In pastoral communities in Djibouti, forced intercommunal marriage has been used as a negative coping strategy to resolve conflict over pasture, livestock, and water to build peace between pastoral communities (Ministère de la Femme et de la Famille - Djibouti 2019). Conflict-related environmental pollution can also disproportionately affect women’s health. Poor environmental conditions are associated with leading causes of mortality and morbidity. Pollution can particularly affect the livelihoods of disadvantaged groups, including women who rely on natural resources, through the contamination of water resources and soil, for example (World Bank 2018). In FCV contexts, the lack of safety and disruption of health services, as well as exposure to the toxic remnants of war, also increase health risks that impact poor and vulnerable groups. In artisanal gold mining in Mali, for example, women especially experience health risks due to their lack of protective equipment while using mercury during the ore washing phase (Rodrigue Koné and Khadidiatou Faye 2021). In Yemen, women in the Ibb countryside, who were the main agricultural workers during the conflict, have been particularly affected by contaminated rainwater, which has increased the risks of cholera and other diseases (Ali 2020). Natural resource degradation and climate-related shocks also put pressure on traditional norms of masculinity and femininity. These notions exist worldwide, although in different forms. For example, in Northeast Nigeria, norms of breadwinner masculinity and a desire to protect family wealth are often linked to cattle ownership, and stress due to resource scarcity and resulting competition over grazing land have played a role in intensifying conflict dynamics and contributing to men’s decisions to join violent groups (UNEP et al. 2020). In Niger, scarce resources and a lack of economic opportunities have pitted farmers and herders against each other, increasing tensions that have led to violent clashes between communities. Some herders have also had to change their way of life and choose difficult alternatives, including migrating or joining armed groups (ICRC 2020). Despite specific risks and vulnerabilities associated with conflict, natural resources, and climate change, women take on new roles during these situations to meet their household needs, including in NRM. In Yemen, shifts in demographics because of the war led rural communities in Ibb to rely on women for agricultural work (Ali 2020). In North Kordofan, Sudan, both conflict and climate change led to the feminization of local communities as men migrated to cities due to economic hardship and resource scarcity (UNEP et al. 2020). This situation has contributed to changing gender roles as women not only had to fulfill traditional responsibilities, such as housework and managing tasks like fetching water and collecting firewood, but also generate new forms of income in the absence of men. In Aceh, Indonesia, conflict resulted in women adopting new roles in male-dominated sectors, such as fisheries and aquaculture (UNEP et al. 2013). When male ex-combatants returned home, however, changing gender roles contributed to household tensions. 49 ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES SUPPLEMENTARY GUIDANCE NOTE FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS Women play various roles during conflict and can adopt negative coping mechanisms to deal with conflict and environment-related vulnerability, including in the exploitation of natural resources. In South Kivu, the Democratic Republic of Congo, women represented 70 percent of traders of illicit goods including coltan, gold, and copper (World Bank 2015). In Mali, women play major roles in artisanal and small-scale gold mining, including pulling buckets containing ore from the pits and transporting, crushing, and processing the material (Rodrigue Koné and Khadidiatou Faye 2021). However, they are at the lowest level of the operational hierarchy, are poorly paid, and have difficult working conditions. To deal with these challenges, they engage in both licit and illicit activities, including drug trafficking and prostitution. In Côte d’Ivoire, women also adopted mechanisms such as relying on marriage outside of their ethnic groups to secure access to cash crops to cope with conflict and resource scarcity (UNEP et al. 2013). Women also play important roles as peacemakers, yet are largely excluded from formal peace processes. The Council on Foreign Relations reports that between 1992 and 2019, women held only 13 percent of roles as negotiators, 6 percent as mediators, and 6 percent as signatories to major peace processes globally (Council on Foreign Relations n.d.). Women peacebuilders often have greater access to certain populations and venues than men (Andreassen et al. 2009). Despite being key actors in building stability and overcoming fragility, women’s roles in this process are often overlooked, in part because many women occupy informal or invisible jobs and positions. Those in such informal roles risk exposure to vulnerability and violence, and unpaid and informal jobs are difficult to account for in the environmental impacts and footprint of economic activities. 50 References: Al-Ammar, Fawziah, Hannah Patchett, and Shams Shamsan. 2019. “A Gendered Crisis: Understanding the Experiences of Yemen’s War.” Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies. https://sanaacenter.org/ files/A_Gendered_Crisis_en.pdf. Ali, Abdullah. 2020. “Empowering Women in Yemen’s Countryside: Securing Ibb.” Washington Institute for Near East Policy. February 5, 2020. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/ empowering-women-yemens-countryside-securing-ibb. Andreassen, Birgith, Joseph Hoenen, Sophie Kesselaar, Bjørg Skotnes, and Johanna Valenius. 2009. “Operational Effectiveness and UN Resolution 1325–Practices and Lessons from Afghanistan.” Stockholm: FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency. http://www.peacewomen.org/sites/default/ files/1325_PracticeLessonsAfghanistan_SDRA_May2009_0.pdf. Arab World for Research and Development and Palestinian Working Women Society for Development. 2020. “In-Depth Assessment of Women’s Access to and Ownership of Land and Productive Resources in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.” Palestine: Palestinian Working Women Society for Development. Boyer, A.E., Seline S. Meijer, and Molly Gilligan. 2020. “Advancing Gender in the Environment: Exploring the Triple Nexus of Gender Inequality, State Fragility, and Climate Vulnerability.” Washington, DC: IUCN & USAID. Cagoco-Guiam, Rufa. 2013. “Gender and Livelihoods Among Internally Displaced Persons in Mindanao, Philippines.” The Brookings-London School of Economics Project on Internal Displacement. https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Gender-and-Livelihoods-Among-IDPs- in-Mindanao-Philippines-July-2013.pdf. CARE. 2020. “Evicted by Climate Change: Confronting the Gendered Impacts of Climate-Induced Displacement.” Geneva: Care International. https://careclimatechange.org/wp-content/ uploads/2020/07/CARE-Climate-Migration-Report-v0.4.pdf. Castañeda Carney, Itzá, Laura Sabater, Cate Owren, and A.E. Boyer. 2020. Gender-Based Violence and Environment Linkages: The Violence of Inequality. Edited by Jamie Wen. IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature. https://doi.org/10.2305/IUCN.CH.2020.03.en. Chandra, Alvin, and Karen Elizabeth McNamara. 2017. “In Philippines, Rural Women Bear the Brunt of Both Climate Change and Conflict.” The Wire. July 25, 2017. https://thewire.in/environment/ philippines-rural-women-bear-brunt-climate-change-conflict. Christien, Agathe, and Jeni Klugman. 2020. “Advancing Women’s Participation in Post-Conflict Reconstruction.” Permanent Mission of the United Arab Emirates to the UN and the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace, and Security. https://giwps.georgetown.edu/wp-content/ uploads/2020/11/Advancing-Women%E2%80%99s-Participation-in-Post-conflict-Reconstruction. pdf. Council on Foreign Relations. n.d. “Women’s Participation in Peace Processes.” Accessed August 15, 2022. https://www.cfr.org/womens-participation-in-peace-processes/. Epstein, Adrienne, Eran Bendavid, Denis Nash, Edwin D. Charlebois, and Sheri D. Weiser. 2020. “Drought and Intimate Partner Violence Towards Women in 19 Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa During 2011-2018: A Population-Based Study.” Edited by Lawrence Palinkas. PLOS Medicine 17 (3): e1003064. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003064. Gevers, Anik, Tina Musuya, and Paul Bukuluki. 2020. “Why Climate Change Fuels Violence Against Women.” United Nations Development Programme. January 28, 2020. https://www.undp.org/ blog/why-climate-change-fuels-violence-against-women. ICRC (International Committee of the Red Cross). 2020. “Niger: Climate Change and Armed Conflict Threaten the Livelihoods of Nomadic Herders.” Multimedia Newsroom of the International Committee of the Red Cross. March 19, 2020. https://www.icrcnewsroom.org/story/en/1900/ niger-climate-change-and-armed-conflict-threaten-the-livelihoods-of-nomadic-herders. 51 Ide, Tobias, Marisa O. Ensor, Virginie Le Masson, and Susanne Kozak. 2021. “Gender in the Climate- Conflict Nexus: ‘Forgotten’ Variables, Alternative Securities, and Hidden Power Dimensions.” Politics and Governance 9 (4): 43–52. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v9i4.4275. Ministère de la Femme et de la Famille - Djibouti. 2019. Rapport D’examen National Approfondi Établi À L’occasion Du 25ème Anniversaire De La Quatrième Conférence Mondiale De Beijing Sur Les Femmes Et Les 5 Ans Du Programme De Développement Durable Des Nations Unies À L’horizon 2030. Rodrigue Koné, Fahiraman, and Adja Khadidiatou Faye. 2021. “Gold Doesn’t Shine for Women in Mali and Senegal’s Mines.” Institute for Security Studies Africa. December 9, 2021. https://issafrica. org/iss-today/gold-doesnt-shine-for-women-in-mali-and-senegals-mines. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), UN Women (United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women), UNDP (United Nations Development Programme), and DPPA (United Nations Department of Political and Peacebuilding Affairs) / PBSO (Peacebuilding Support Office). 2020. “Gender, Climate, & Security: Sustaining Inclusive Peace on the Frontlines of Climate Change.” https://www.unwomen.org/sites/default/files/Headquarters/Attachments/ Sections/Library/Publications/2020/Gender-climate-and-security-en.pdf. UNEP (United Nations Environment Programme), UN Women (United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women), UNPBSO (United Nations Peacebuilding Support Office), and UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). 2013. Women and Natural Resources: Unlocking the Peacebuilding Potential. https://wedocs.unep.org/20.500.11822/8373. UNOCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs). 2018. “2019 Humanitarian Needs Overview.” New York: UNOCHA. https://reliefweb.int/sites/ reliefweb.int/files/resources/2019_ Yemen_HNO_FINAL.pdf. WASH Cluster. 2020. “Advocacy Brief: A Water Crisis in the Time of Covid-19: Impact of Funding Shortages on Public Health in Yemen.” UNICEF, New York. Women for Women International. n.d. “Women’s Access to Land in Eastern DRC.” Accessed August 16, 2022. https://womenforwomen.org.uk/what-we-do/issues/womens-access-land-eastern-drc. World Bank. 2015. Resources and Resourcefulness: Gender, Conflict, and Artisanal Mining Communities in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo. Washington, DC: World Bank. http:// documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/262411467998211567/Resources-and-resourcefulness- gender-conflict-and-artisanal-mining-communities-in-Eastern-Democratic-Republic-of-the- Congo. World Bank. 2018. “Environment and Natural Resources Global Practice: Towards Implementing the WBG Gender Strategy Follow-up Note (FY19-FY21).” https://worldbankgroup.sharepoint.com/ sites/ENR/GE/Sitepages/Detail.aspx/Documents/mode=view?_Id=2&SiteURL=/sites/ENR/GE. World Health Organization (WHO). 2002. The World Health Report 2002: Reducing Risks, Promoting Healthy Life. Geneva: WHO. 52 Endnotes 1. Detges et al. 2020. 2. IEG 2021. 3. The study of the relationship between climate change and conflict has evolved from an examination of whether there is a link to the current study of when and how it contributes to conflict. Although the link is largely accepted in the literature, contemporary discussion regards this link as probabilistic, due to no counterfactual, and areas of debate involve the methodological issues and modeling assumptions used and the relative importance of climatic as opposed to non-climatic drivers of conflict (Detges et al. 2020). 4. Based on World Development Indicators and FAOSTAT extractives and forestry data from 2014. 5. Between 2000-2011. 6. World Development Indicators and FAOSTAT data for 2000-2011.