A Strategic Roadmap for Advancing Multi-hazard Impact-based Early Warning Systems and Services in the Caribbean CLIMATE RISK & EARLY WA R N I N G S YST E M S A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Suggested citation: Multi-hazard Impact-based Early Warning Systems and Services in the Caribbean Image credits: Page 19: Trong Nguyen. Elements of the image furnished by NASA. Page 21: Larina Marina. Page 27: Drew McArthur. Page 32: Multiverse. Page 59: Dean Kerr. Page 60: Ursula Page. Page 72: Darwin Brandis. Page 79: aappp. Page 83: lunamarina. Page 88: eskystudio. Page 97: Natalia Gornyakova. Cover: Hurricane Maria makes landfall in Puerto Rica in September 2017. Credit: lavizzara. Elements of the image furnished by NASA. Design and infographics by 5W Infographics. This document is the property of the World Bank. It is permissible to copy and use any of the material in this report provided that the source is appropriately acknowledged. Further information is available from: © The World Bank 2021 Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution:This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Disclaimer—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) with external contributions. The findings, analysis and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of any individual partner organization of The World Bank, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. Although the World Bank and GFDRR make reasonable efforts to ensure all the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy and integrity cannot be guaranteed. Use of any data or information from this document is at the user’s own risk and under no circumstances shall the World Bank, GFDRR or any of its partners be liable for any loss, damage, liability or expense incurred or suffered which is claimed to result from reliance on the data contained in this document. The boundaries, colors, denomination, and other information shown in any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS: The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. 2 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Contents Acknowledgments.................................................................................................................................................................6 Abbreviations and acronyms...............................................................................................................................................7 Partner statements................................................................................................................................................................9 Preface .................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................................... 13 1. Vision and purpose of the roadmap.................................................................................................................. 21 Regional context.................................................................................................................................................................. 22 Vision ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Purpose of the roadmap.................................................................................................................................................... 23 Crosscutting principles...................................................................................................................................................... 25 2. Opportunities and challenges.............................................................................................................................. 27 Strong regional institutions foster collaboration along the EWS value chain......................................................... 29 Leveraging the power of data sharing and efficient information use for event forecasting................................. 29 Using multiple channels and tools to disseminate people-centered information.................................................. 30 Using technology and information systems to unlock impact-based MHEWS’ potential.................................... 30 Building capacity to overcome barriers to effective preparedness and response................................................. 30 Strong initiatives offer strong opportunities to overcome challenges...................................................................... 31 3. Strategic Initiatives for Building a Resilient Future................................................................................... 32 SI1. Supporting the transition to IBF and warning services........................................................................................ 35 SI2. Toward a Caribbean geospatial platform............................................................................................................... 38 SI3. Toward a regional multi-sensor precipitation grid................................................................................................ 40 SI4. An integrated approach to flood and drought risk forecasting and warning.................................................. 43 SI5. Integrating health impacts into the impact-based MHEWS............................................................................... 47 SI6. Air quality health impacts.......................................................................................................................................... 49 SI7. Toward a Caribbean multi-hazard operational plan............................................................................................. 52 SI8. Regional emergency alert system........................................................................................................................... 53 SI9. Community-based action planning......................................................................................................................... 56 SI10. Sectoral impact-based MHEWS, the private sector, and BCP.......................................................................... 57 3 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN 4. Social and economic benefits of improved EWS......................................................................................... 60 The challenges of quantifying benefits........................................................................................................................... 61 Producing benefits.............................................................................................................................................................. 62 Reflecting uncertainty......................................................................................................................................................... 63 Reducing disaster losses................................................................................................................................................... 64 Avoided damages................................................................................................................................................................ 65 Avoided fatalities................................................................................................................................................................. 67 Increased sectoral productivity......................................................................................................................................... 68 Discount rates...................................................................................................................................................................... 68 Costs ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 68 Model outputs...................................................................................................................................................................... 69 Discussion of results.......................................................................................................................................................... 70 5. Implementation approach...................................................................................................................................... 72 A phased approach............................................................................................................................................................. 74 An enabling environment................................................................................................................................................... 74 Developing capacity............................................................................................................................................................ 75 Engaging the private sector............................................................................................................................................... 76 An inclusive approach........................................................................................................................................................ 76 The long-term goal: building a system-of-systems...................................................................................................... 78 6. Recommendations.................................................................................................................................................... 79 Annex 1. Summary of the Situation Analysis of the Caribbean Multi-Hazard End-to-End Early Warning System........................................................................................................... 83 Annex 2. Linkages between proposed strategic initiatives and regional and national activities...................... 88 References......................................................................................................................................................................... 94 4 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN List of figures Figure 1.1. Comparative BCRs of EWS and other adaptation investments............................................................ 23 Figure 1.2. Purpose of the roadmap and crosscutting principles............................................................................. 25 Figure 3.1. Overview of the strategic initiatives across EWS pillars......................................................................... 33 Figure 3.2. How impact-based forecasting (IBF) works............................................................................................. 35 Figure 3.3. Regional multisensor precipitation grid..................................................................................................... 41 Figure 3.4. Regional emergency alert system............................................................................................................... 54 Figure 4.1. Disaster-related fatalities and damages in the Caribbean, 2000–21................................................... 64 Figure 4.2. Distribution of disaster-related fatalities in the Caribbean, 2000–2021.............................................. 67 Figure 4.3. Cumulative probability distributions of BCR............................................................................................. 69 Figure 5.1. Impact-based MHEWS implementation approach.................................................................................. 74 List of boxes Box P.1. Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems Initiative....................................................................................... 11 Box P.2. Geographic scope of the Strategic Roadmap for Advancing impact-based MHEWS in the Caribbean 2020–30................................................................................................................................................. 12 Box 2.1. Overcoming challenges in accessing and using EPS data in the region.................................................. 28 Box 2.2. Health-related impacts of Sahara dust and the Soufrière volcano eruption........................................... 28 Box 3.1. The four EWS pillars........................................................................................................................................... 34 Box 3.2. Global heatwaves in 2022................................................................................................................................. 48 Box 4.1. DRM economics in development..................................................................................................................... 62 Box 4.2. Key time concepts relevant to the economic analysis of hydromet services and EWS....................... 62 Box 4.3. Probabilistic modeling in a nutshell................................................................................................................. 64 Box 5.1. The one-size-fits-all EWS: a life-threatening aspect of structural exclusion............................................ 77 List of tables Table 4.1. Damages and casualties in the Caribbean, by disaster type, 2000–22................................................ 63 Table 4.2. Disaster-related fatalities and damages in the Caribbean by country, 2000–21................................ 65 Table 4.3. Benchmarking FHRC model input variables............................................................................................... 66 Table 4.4. FHRC model input variables.......................................................................................................................... 66 Table 4.5. Overall benefits for Caribbean countries of the strategic initiatives outlined in this roadmap......... 71 5 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Acknowledgments The World Bank team would like to thank the institutions and individuals whose continuous efforts are strengthening and making multi-hazard impact-based early warning systems and services more accessible to all the people of the Caribbean. We are grateful for the support of a wide group of experts and organizations whose contributions informed the creation of this Roadmap. We would like to especially thank the regional partner organizations – Caribbean Meteorological Organization (Headquarters) (CMO HQ), Caribbean Institution of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), as well as the Meteorological Service of Jamaica for their active participation in the process of preparing the Roadmap and for their continued support. The team is grateful for the inputs and contributions provided by the national meteorological, hydrological and disaster risk management agencies, as well as implementing partners – World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR). The team appreciates the participation of other regional organizations, such as the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, CARICHAM, CTU, and members of the Regional Early Warning Systems Consortium, as well as experts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Hydrologic Research Center, Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Center, CIMA, Decision Analysis partners, the University of the West Indies Seismic Research Center, the University of the West Indies Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies, Caribbean Regional Public Health Agency, OECS Commission, EWISACTS consortium, Varysian HydoMet Network, and the UNDP office for Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean. The team would also like to express its special appreciation to the colleagues from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery and the CREWS Initiative Secretariat for the support extended to the team throughout the process. 6 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Abbreviations and acronyms AAL average annual losses AI artificial intelligence AOD Aerosol Optical Depth ARISE Private Sector Alliance for Disaster Resilient Societies (UNDRR) BHA Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance BCP business continuity planning BCPs business continuity plans BCR benefit-cost ratio CAHN Caribbean Aerosol Health Network CAP Common Alerting Protocol CAPEX capital expenditure CARICHAM Caribbean Network of Chambers of Commerce CARICOM Caribbean Community CARPHA Caribbean Public Health Agency CBA cost-benefit analysis CCCCC Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre CCCES Caribbean Centre for Climate and Environmental Simulations CCREEE Caribbean Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility CDB Caribbean Development Bank CDEMA Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency CDM Comprehensive Disaster Management CHOP Caribbean Hydrometeorological Operational Plan CIFI Coastal Inundation Forecasting Initiative CIMH Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology CMO Caribbean Meteorological Organization CMO HQ Caribbean Meteorological Organization Headquarters Unit CPAGCC Caribbean Planning For Adaptation To Global Climate Change CRIS Caribbean Risk Information System CREWS Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems CWWA Caribbean Water and Wastewater Association DRM disaster risk management EAS emergency alert systems EPS ensemble prediction systems E2E End to End EWISACTs Early Warning Information Systems Across Timescales in the Caribbean EWS early warning systems and services FFG flash flood guidance FFGS WMO Flash Flood Guidance System FHRC Flood Hazard Research Center GDP gross domestic product GEO Group on Earth Observations GIS geographic information system GWE Global Weather Enterprise HHAP heat-health action plan 7 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN HHWS heat-health warning system Hydromet hydrometeorological HVR Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk IBF impact-based forecasting IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Lidar light detection and ranging MHEWS multi-hazard early warning systems ML machine learning MPLNET Micro-Pulse Lidar Network MSME micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprise NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction NDMO national disaster management organization NESDIS National Environmental Satellite Data Information Service NGO nongovernmental organization NHC National Hurricane Center (United States) NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Services NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States) NWP numerical weather prediction NWS National Weather Service (United States) OECS Organization of Eastern Caribbean States O&M operation and maintenance PAHO Pan American Health Organization PM particulate matter PS Participating States QGIS Quantum Geographic Information Systems RCC Regional Climate Center REWSC Regional Early Warning Systems Consortium RTFS Real Time Impact Forecasting System SI strategic initiative SLOSH Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (model) SMASH Simple Model for the Advection of Storms and Hurricanes SWAN Simulating Waves Nearshore SWFP Severe Weather Forecasting Programme (WMO) SOP standard operational procedures SRC Seismic Research Centre (UWI) TCOP Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan UNDRR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UNESCO-IOC United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization – Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission URISA Urban and Regional Information Systems Association USAID United States Agency for International Development UWI University of the West Indies WCRN Weather and Climate Ready Nations WMO World Meteorological Organization XSR Excess Rainfall (model) All dollar amounts are U.S. dollars. 8 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Partner statements Caribbean Meteorological Organization Headquarters Unit The Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO) Headquarters Unit, which coordinates joint scientific and technical regional activities in weather, climate, and water, is pleased to advance Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS) and Impact-Based Forecasting and Warning Services, particularly regarding the contribution of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS). CMO-HQ believes that the proposed activities will foster growth in MHEWS, thus enabling risk-informed, early actions to protect lives, livelihoods, and assets. When implemented the initiatives will augment existing and planned strategic priorities for MHEWS, while integrating weather, water, climate, and other geophysical hazards, and socio-economic Information into policies and actions for climate resilience and sustainable development in the Caribbean. Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) CIMH is pleased to be one of the institutions of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) invited to work with the global Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) implementation team to further advance multi-hazard early warning systems (MHEWS) and impact-based forecasting (IBF) in the Caribbean. The CIMH believes the various initiatives being developed and piloted, when operationalized and integrated with existing and planned initiatives in the areas of weather, water, climate, marine, and geological hazards will significantly transform the MHEWS and IBF across the region. Caribbean Disaster and Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) CDEMA is committed to supporting our nineteen (19) Participating States in strengthening people-centered MHEWS that are responsive to the needs of the people of the Caribbean. Effective MHEWS are a critical aspect of the Comprehensive Disaster Management Strategy 2014-2024 which has a goal of building resilience to the diverse, complex hazards facing the region including those exacerbated by climate change. CDEMA remains committed to building a culture of safety and security with harmonized national MHEWS policies and roadmaps, and to a shift from reactive to proactive approaches in mindset and operations, through the development of impact-based warnings and risk- informed action planning so that the region cannot just survive but thrive. 9 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) WMO’s Vision 2030 foresees a world where all nations are more resilient to the socioeconomic impacts of extreme weather, climate, water and other environmental events. Especially in the Caribbean, a region that is highly affected by extreme events, MHEWS that provide timely, accurate and actionable information are critical to protecting lives, livelihoods and property. This Strategic Roadmap for Advancing Multi-hazard Impact-based Early Warning Systems and Services in the Caribbean provides an excellent set of strategic actions which would enable decision makers to trigger appropriate and inclusive preparedness and response measures. This is critical for building resilience into the future. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) Early warnings that trigger early action can save many lives. The importance of multi-hazard preparedness was proven with the La Soufrière volcanic eruption where timely evacuations following effective response in the simultaneous context of the hurricane season, the COVID-19 pandemic and the dengue epidemic, were very effective. Many more deaths could be prevented in the Caribbean by continuing to advance the understanding of such complex and interconnected risks, and using this knowledge for improved policies, forecasting and response capacities. It is thus imperative to accelerate the implementation of the Strategic Roadmap for Advancing Multi-hazard Impact-based Early Warning Systems and Services in the Caribbean. World Bank The World Bank remains committed to supporting climate resilient development in the Caribbean and building regional capability to strengthen and streamline impact- based, multi-hazard, early warning systems and services for risk-informed decision making. The purpose of this Strategic Roadmap for Advancing Multi-hazard Impact- based Early Warning Systems and Services in the Caribbean is to support regional and national agencies in leveraging the human, technical, and financial resources needed to implement a set of transformational strategic initiatives aimed at building stronger foundations for the MHEWS. 10 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Preface T his strategic roadmap was developed under the World Bank’s Strengthening Hydro- Meteorological and Early Warning Services in the Caribbean project, financed by the Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) Initiative (box P.1). This roadmap is informed by “A Situation Analysis of the Caribbean Multi-Hazard End-to-End Early Warning System” (World Bank 2020), developed in collaboration with key regional stakeholders—the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), Caribbean Meteorological Organization Headquarters, and Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, and the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCCs), which are part of the CREWS Caribbean project—in consultation with members of the Regional Early Warning Systems Consortium (Annex 1). It is also informed by, and aims to contribute to, the delivery of multi-hazard early warning services aligned with regional frameworks for advancing early warning system and services (EWS) policy, comprehensive disaster risk management, climate-resilient development, and sustainable oceans. BOX P.1. CLIMATE RISK AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS INITIATIVE The CREWS Initiative supports and provides funding to Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States to significantly increase their capacity to generate and communicate effective, impact- based, multi-hazard, gender-informed early warnings to protect lives, livelihoods, and assets. The CREWS Initiative is operationalized by three implementing partners: World Bank/Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery; World Meteorological Organization (WMO); and UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. WMO provides secretariat services, and the World Bank serves as trustee. For more information, see https://www.crews-initiative.org/en. The Caribbean Community’s (CARICOM) Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to Climate Change1 can benefit from strengthening regional multi-hazard early warning systems and services (MHEWS) to deliver in the five focus areas of the resilience pathway adopted by CARICOM heads of government2 in 2018. These are: social protection for the marginal and most vulnerable; enhancing economic opportunities; safeguarding infrastructure; environmental protection; and operational readiness and recovery (Granderson 2018). The CDEMA Council of Ministers’ formal adoption of the Model National MHEWS Policy and Adaptation Guide3 in July 2020 sets the stage for mainstreaming EWS into the resilient development pathway through harmonized national and regional implementation of the roadmap. Priority Action 4.3 of the Regional Comprehensive Disaster Management (CDM) Strategy and Results Framework (2014–24) (CDEMA 2014) requires countries to establish end-to-end, integrated, and fully functional early warning systems to warn the population of impending danger and take appropriate actions. CDEMA participating states are to apply the EWS Checklists (WMO 2018), adjusted for the region by CDEMA (CDEMA 2018), as a monitoring mechanism every three years in conjunction with the 1 https://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/forging-a-climate-resilient-development-pathway-in-the-caribbean/. 2 CARICOM member states: Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago. 3 http://www.thebahamasweekly.com/publish/caribbean-news/The_CDEMA_Council_recognises_the_role_of_the_Agency_ in_the_fight_against_COVID-1966134.shtml. 11 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN CDM Audit Tool, to capture EWS achievements and gaps, and inform the regional MHEWS roadmapping process. This strategic roadmap is aligned with this cycle to support and guide the strengthening of the regional MHEWS in the Caribbean (box P.2). It is also harmonized and aligned with these global frameworks for disaster risk reduction and climate resilient development: • Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction4 Global Target G, to “substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030” • Small Island Developing States Accelerated Modalities of Action (SAMOA) Pathway5 • Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs),6 particularly: SDG 3 good health and well-being; SDG 8 decent work and economic growth; SDG 13 climate action, SDG 14 life below water; SDG 15 life and land; SDG 16 peace, justice, and strong institutions; and SDG 17 partnerships for the goals • United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021–30),7 where science responds to the needs of society to foster a transparent ocean with open access to data, information, and technologies, for a safe and predicted ocean, among other themes. BOX P.2. GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING IMPACT-BASED MHEWS IN THE CARIBBEAN For the purposes of this strategic regional multi-hazard impact-based early warning systems and services impact-based MHEWS roadmap process, the Caribbean region is considered to comprise CARICOM’s 15 member states—Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago—and five associate states and territories, Anguilla, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos. To promote harmonizing disaster management policy and investment, which will ultimately require political endorsement, it also recognizes that strengthening and streamlining a CARICOM regional impact-based MHEWS will necessitate effective collaboration with MHEWS strategies adopted by the Caribbean territories of the Netherlands, France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and in some instances may need to involve wider Caribbean coastal countries. 4 https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030. 5 https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sids2014/samoapathway. 6 https://sdgs.un.org/goals. 7 https://en.unesco.org/ocean-decade. 12 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Executive summary A s a region that is impacted by multiple acute need for MHEWS in the Caribbean, given the multiple shocks, multi-hazard early warning hazards including geophysical and biological hazards systems (MHEWS) that provide timely, affecting the region has been recognized. The roadmap actionable information are critical to protecting highlights this need. To implement MHEWS, all CARICOM member states will need to establish supporting policies, lives, assets and livelihoods in the Caribbean. with major investment required in national institutions’ legislative, infrastructural, technical, and human resources Every year, the region suffers over $1.6 billion in average as well as regional and national coordination mechanisms. direct natural hazard-triggered disaster damages (World Taking a regional approach will leverage existing Bank 2018). The number of people exposed to floods in the capabilities and collaborations that support MHEWS, region increased by 70 percent between 2000 and 2020 although these are yet to be reflected at national level in and will keep rising with climate change (Rozenberg et most member states. al.). And while advances in science and technology make it possible to forecast many hazards and disseminate This roadmap focuses on achieving people-centered warnings, this is not enough. Ensuring risk-informed and self-sustaining regional impact-based MHEWS that decision making requires countries to continually improve ensure participation from gender groups, community and update their understanding of the potential impact of leaders, vulnerable groups, and the private sector. complex hazards so authorities, people, and businesses It is centered around 10 strategic initiatives which, can take appropriate anticipatory action. And to access implemented together, can help transform national and the high-quality information they need to mitigate hazard regional delivery of the MHEWS required for the Caribbean impacts, national and regional cooperation is essential. to thrive. This roadmap presents these initiatives, the vision, inclusive guiding principles, and an analysis of the As the region experiences the compound and cascading social and economic benefits of EWS. Finally, it makes effects of multiple hazards, the need to find cost-effective recommendations for implementing. ways to improve regional and national impact-based MHEWS is growing. Although the region’s states and overseas territories vary in size, capacity, institutional Vision and guiding principles arrangements, culture, and language, most rely on maritime trade, security, food resources, and tourism. With disasters The vision is a regional model for inclusive and reliable costing small Caribbean states nearly 2 percent of gross impact-based MHEWS to protect lives, assets, and domestic product (GDP) each year (Acevedo Mejía 2016), livelihoods, and increase resilience in the Caribbean. the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have highlighted Designed to strengthen and build on existing capabilities the value of anticipatory action to prevent and mitigate to realize a people-centered, end-to-end, and sustainable economic losses.8 regional impact-based MHEWS, it is not intended as a substitute for institutional, national, and regional strategies Although a few Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and plans. Rather, it contributes to enhanced delivery and countries have an operational MHEWS dealing with coherence across regional strategies for disaster risk hydrometeorological hazards, there is not yet an management (DRM), resilience, and adaptation to climate operational system addressing an ensemble of multiple change. hazards of different origins such as hydrometeorological, geophysical or biological in a MHEWS context. So far, the Its proactive vision builds on foundational work by the focus of the region has been to develop and operate early Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency warning systems (EWS) for hydromet hazards, although the (CDEMA), Caribbean Meteorological Organization (CMO 8 Interview with Ulric Trotz, deputy director and science advisor emeritus at CCCCCs (March 16, 2020). 13 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN HQ), Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology mandates for EWS. A multi-hazard system considers (CIMH), the Caribbean Community Climate Change the differences and similarities between hazards, the Centre (CCCCCs), the Caribbean Public Health Agency compounding effects of overlapping hazards, and (CARPHA), the University of the West Indies Seismic cascading impacts, as one process. Having a common Research Centre, and others. Lessons from the COVID-19 framework for coping with complex disasters helps all pandemic and recent extreme events underscore the need stakeholders understand the full spectrum of secondary to understand the vulnerability of individuals, communities, and tertiary effects and provide targeted warnings and societies to provide reliable, targeted guidance and (Rogers et al. 2020a). This facilitates the required level warnings and ensure willingness and capacity to prepare of preparedness and responses to warnings. It can also for reasonable worst-case scenarios based on risk- help to optimize the cost-benefit, encourage coherence in informed action planning.9 national expenditures, and improve donor investments. Principle 3: From MHEWS to impact-based MHEWS To realize the full benefits of MHEWS in the region, countries require support to establish and resource The impact-based forecasting (IBF) approach shifts the their MHEWS policies and implementation roadmaps focus from what a hazard will be to what a hazard will and harmonize these efforts to ensure a coherent and do—that is, who will be affected, where, when and how? IBF sustainable regional strategy that aligns multiple approaches is expected to become a trusted tool and core element of and efforts in strengthening EWS. Together, countries should every national disaster risk management system. Focused also strengthen the regional cascading system for optimized on hydromet hazards to date, IBF is advancing meteorology national and regional coordination and collaboration, and and hydrology applications, which Caribbean countries leverage funding to strengthen and sustain MHEWS and its already use in health and other sectors (Rogers et al. components at regional as well as national levels. 2020a). The ability to understand and respond effectively to warnings through appropriate anticipatory action is Investing in MHEWS is one of the most cost-effective central to a resilient society. Impact-based MHEWS offers a ways to build sustained measurable value and strong common approach that countries can progressively apply regional institutions that provide timely, high-quality risk and tailor for all hazards, enabling all stakeholders and information to all segments of the population, including sectors to anticipate and effectively manage the complexity sectoral stakeholders (CARICOM 2017). The roadmap is of current and future risks (Rogers et al. 2020a). This therefore shaped along three cross-cutting principles: transition has already begun, with institutions in the region already developing and implementing various regional Principle 1: People-centered EWS initiatives with support from the development community. Standardized frameworks under development include, Focusing on people and their livelihoods, from risk to among others, CDEMA’s Model National MHEWS policy; its response, enables a truly efficient end-to-end EWS that Comprehensive Disaster Management Strategy 2014–24; responds to people’s exposure and vulnerability to hazard CARICOM and CDEMA’s Caribbean Pathway for Building impacts. Different groups face different restrictions on Resilience; and the Early Warning Information Systems participation and power that can heighten risk and drive a Across Timescales in the Caribbean (EWISACTs) Roadmap downward spiral of disaster-driven poverty. This roadmap and Plan of Action 2020–30. strives to capture historically neglected social segments, empower people and communities to become resilient to hazards, and deliver needs-responsive services for all social groups. Principle 2: Expanding EWS to MHEWS Coping with multi-hazard events is a reality. Implementing CDEMA’s Model National MHEWS Policy offers a strong regionally harmonized foundation for examining the institutional and legislative frameworks that govern 9 Interview with Ulric Trotz, deputy director and science advisor emeritus at CCCCCs (March 16, 2020). 14 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Strategic Initiatives for building It has delivered considerable training through various a resilient future projects and programs to date. A fully-fledged Caribbean geospatial platform will: create a political and technical MHEWS delivery is built around the four pillars of EWS: environment with support from the region’s leaders; strengthen and expand regional data-sharing; advance Pillar 1. A data-informed understanding of risk interoperability; and improve education and training opportunities in software development, geographic Pillar 2. Regionally coordinated hazard monitoring, information systems (GIS), geospatial technologies, and detection, and forecasting similar fields. Pillar 3. Tailored communication SI3. Toward a regional multi-sensor precipitation grid: Developing a high-resolution grid of observed and Pillar 4. Shock-responsive planning to trigger predicted rainfall in and near coastal areas across the effective anticipatory actions in all potentially region will significantly increase National Meteorological impacted households, communities, and sectors.10 and Hydrological Services (NMHS) capacity for forecasting and using MHEWS. Combining rainfall data, satellite- derived rainfall data, and radar data, a high-resolution grid Linking the four EWS pillars, this roadmap charts a set of estimated rainfall for the next 24 hours will be linked to a of mutually reinforcing strategic initiatives (SIs) that forecast rainfall grid for input to flood and flash flood early build on national and regional capacities to provide a warning systems. Its integration with radars and rain gauge framework for action that is achievable in the near to networks means that improved prediction will primarily middle term. When carried out together, they strengthen occur near land masses for island states. However, where existing transformational efforts in the region by focusing appropriate, the grid will also provide increased accuracy on a set of key building blocks for continually improving within the radar umbrella over the ocean, which can impact-based MHEWS delivery that will benefit the citizens support future enhancement of marine warning services. and residents of the Caribbean in the long term. SI4. An integrated approach to flood and drought SI1. Supporting the transition to IBF and warning risk forecasting and warning: Providing forecasts services: Providing routine and actionable information on and warnings with enough lead time to avoid or mitigate potential hazard impacts, in a form that all stakeholders losses will reduce potential impacts of flash, riverine, and understand and can use to protect lives, livelihoods, coastal flooding for exposed populations. There have been assets, and property, is vital. This work will build on existing regional and national efforts to address this significant progress in the region, developing a common terminology challenge, and leveraging from existing work, this initiative and agreed color coding of risk levels, and providing will continue the integration process, progressively building regional training. in an integrated system of systems for anticipating all SI2. Toward a Caribbean geospatial platform: types of flooding. Building an integrated flood forecasting Improving the availability of high-quality geospatial data system and linking it to existing seasonal to inter-annual in the region will benefit all countries, including through climate forecasting can inform preventative measures professional organizations, such as the Urban and Regional and flood mitigation strategies, and scaling up includes a Information Systems Association (URISA) Caribbean drought forecasting capability needed for effective drought Chapter, which strives to be the leading medium of the mitigation and integrated water resource management. Caribbean geospatial community to support sustainable SI5. Integrating health impacts into the impact- development, giving geospatial professionals opportunities based MHEWS: Expanding the weather and climate- for advocacy, educational development, networking, related impact-based MHEWS to include public health leadership, collaboration, coordination, and representation. 10 In this roadmap, we differentiate between IBF as an activity focusing on observation and forecasting while including warning message design and an impact-based system that also considers inclusive dissemination, preparedness, and early action planning, such as implementing additional communication channels to enable the delivery of warnings to persons in at-risk catchments or neighbourhoods, updating community emergency plans, implementing drills, and so on. 15 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN risks—including those from impacts of climate change, based MHEWS will help mitigate the loss of critical physical such as excessive heat—has already started through assets and disruptions in vulnerable supply chains and weather and climate services with CARPHA, the Pan business services. American Health Organization, CIMH, and the EarthMedic program. CIMH and CDEMA have also discussed the For each strategic initiative, the regional roadmap provides complexity that COVID-19 presented within the MHEWS, a clear summary of the rationale, objective, approach, main along with possible frameworks for integration. Adopting tasks, and actors, which can be used as a guide to inform IBF as a common, understandable, and trusted approach harmonized development of national roadmaps and to take for regional health hazards will benefit the whole of society implementation of the SIs forward. in a true multi-hazard approach to coping with complex disasters. Social and economic benefits SI6. Air quality Health Impacts: Progressively of improved EWS developing and operationalizing national and community level observation and effective air quality early warning Natural disasters cost the Caribbean region an estimated systems will reduce risk and exposure to at-risk $143.4 billion in the decade up to 2017, when weather- communities and persons of a host of airborne particles, related losses spiked at $86 billion. Lower-income gaseous contaminants and pathogens impacting the countries already facing other challenges tend to be more human and environmental health as well as key sectors in vulnerable to weather extremes, and recovery can take the region. decades. SI7. Toward a Caribbean multi-hazard operational Applying cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to investments plan: Establishing a regional multi-hazard operational plan in modernizing hydromet services has found that that integrates existing mechanisms for each hazard and investing $1 in hydromet EWS services results in at is flexible, practical, and regularly reviewed and updated will least $3 in socioeconomic benefits (WMO et al. 2015). leverage collective regional strength to overcome national This is a 3:1 benefit-cost ratio (BCR). Applying the IBF weaknesses. This will reduce the burden on national approach and modernizing hydromet services will broadly institutions by promoting best practice in producing improve institutional capacities, regional collaboration, forecasts and warnings for different hazards. and information flow and use. Improving the resolution, timeliness, and accuracy of warnings and information will SI8. Regional emergency alert system: Implementing allow regional, national and local authorities and the public an effective, people-centered regional impact-based to take timely anticipatory measures, saving lives and emergency alert communication and dissemination system avoiding or reducing asset losses. that prompts appropriate action by everyone will ensure timely, consistent, authoritative, and targeted end-to-end An economic analysis of the overall benefits of advisories and warnings reach the public before and during implementing the roadmap provides a more detailed emergencies. estimate of economic value added. With a BCR almost double that of a national approach, regional investments SI9. Community-based action planning: Establishing are likely to generate twice the benefits per dollar than a national processes to change community perceptions of series of parallel national investments, as shown in Chapter and reactions to alerts will strengthen community resilience 4, the economic analysis of the roadmap. Unsurprisingly, a and trigger appropriate anticipatory actions by raising regional approach that leads to national cost savings and awareness of hazard impacts, developing anticipatory overall reduced costs across all countries is more efficient action plans and improving understanding of and advocacy than countries investing individually. Confidence in the for IBF. economic efficiency of proposed investments is also higher SII0. Sectoral impact-based MHEWS, the private for a regional versus national approach. This is recognized sector, and business continuity planning (BCP): in the Caribbean and regional institutions facilitate this Engaging stakeholders from across the private sector type of investment. An additional advantage of the regional spectrum as contributors to and beneficiaries of impact- investment model is lower transaction costs. 16 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN The economics of hydromet and early warning services arrangement is not fully implemented but does deliver is driven by the benefits derived from improved DRM tangible benefits. To fully leverage the improvement of the and optimizing the productivity of weather- and climate- regional system and service delivery, supporting countries sensitive economic sectors. This assessment uses is essential to unlocking the full protective and productive three models to quantify how improving the resolution, benefits of impact-based MHEWS information, and timeliness, and accuracy of warnings and information delivering “effective information efficiently” is vital. improves stakeholder decision making and subsequent actions, reducing fatalities and asset damage, and improving the economic productivity of weather-sensitive Implementation approach sectors. Probabilistic modeling and conservative estimates of the benefits enhance its robustness and confidence in The roadmap’s phased approach will allow countries the results. to capitalize on quick and easy wins in the short term, build new and sustainable capacities in the medium Assuming an annual economic growth rate of 4 percent term, and harness emerging opportunities over the on a GDP base of about $100 billion, the average annual longer term. Multiple actors will be able to coordinate losses (AAL) for the hazards considered in the analysis activities, prioritize tasks according to their financial are about $1 billion, or 1.96 percent of GDP. The model and human resources, and optimize the sequencing of calculates that the proposed roadmap investments will national and regional activities. The lead agencies for lead to average AAL savings of 2.8 percent, and save each strategic initiative will also be able to redefine roles 300–600 lives per year, accounting for 14 percent of all and responsibilities with their implementation partners as estimated economic benefits from improved DRM. required, mobilize financing for subsequent stages, and Full MHEWS modernization would cost on average $4–6 establish a workable regionally-led sustaining framework. million per country, or $80–120 million for the region, To ensure legislative support for a regionally coherent with potential regional benefits in agricultural, energy, approach, streamlining interagency data-sharing, and water supply productivity conservatively estimated application development, and modeling is crucial. In at $24–148 million per year. Pursuing a regional approach the medium term, this roadmap will help accelerate the through the roadmap would save an estimated $30–40 ongoing harmonization of the national implementation of million, with total regional costs of $50–80 million. For interoperability agreements for monitoring and detection individual national modernization investments, operation systems, as well as regional data standards. This will and maintenance (O&M) costs are estimated at 10–15 pave the way for greater use of Big Data and artificial percent of capital expenditure (CAPEX). With many of the intelligence, and continually improving the speed and proposed investments shared among several countries, accuracy of assessments and decision making over the O&M for regional investments is estimated at 4–10 percent long term. Establishing open data policies in the medium of CAPEX. term will also accelerate this process. The World Bank As the Caribbean grows economically, so will its exposure worked with the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank on a and by extension regional AAL, which in turn will boost 2022 data challenge that is already moving the Eastern the expected benefits and BCR resulting from delivering Caribbean in this direction11, and other institutions have enhanced impact-based MHEWS through this roadmap. planned similar challenges using different mechanisms. According to the economic model, the highest potential The CIMH has trained several staff members in this area benefits can be generated by investing in improving and has already begun construction of a data lake. Due to forecasting accuracy, timeliness, and resolution. However, the complexity of systems engineering, a phased approach without a fully functional impact-based MHEWS, benefits will be necessary to integrate state-of-the-art hazard of these initiatives would not be maximized, as this forecast and warning systems and develop a impact-based depends on all stakeholders taking effective decisions MHEWS system of systems that will operate seamlessly and actions based on the warnings. The current MHEWS in a computer workstation. The Caribbean DEWETRA Platform has already begun to support much of this, and 11 https://www.eccb-centralbank.org/p/grd-2022-climate-resilience-data-challenge 17 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN CIMH has been laying the groundwork for an advanced Recommendations integrated MHEWS framework. Providing early and actionable information to protect A systematic approach to designing and delivering lives, assets, and livelihoods is crucial for avoiding and training will ensure organizations involved in MHEWS alleviating fiscal shocks from the multiple hazards that implementation have the capacity they need to effectively regularly impact the Caribbean. The region experiences manage the new techniques or technologies and sustain multiple shocks each year, caused by hydromet, seismic, development. To ensure countries and institutions can environmental, and health-related events; and the costs identify gaps between existing status and a future state associated with these increasingly resulting in disasters of adequate capacity, training must align with national have led to an ongoing deterioration of the fiscal situation strategic objectives, deliver the competencies required to in many Caribbean states. As such, it is important that achieve them, consider existing staff capacity levels, and the process of progressively developing the impact-based include a tailored capacity development plan. MHEWS is closely aligned with the ongoing development of national disaster risk financing strategies. Involving private sector actors as contributors and beneficiaries will strengthen demand for sustaining When building the regional MHEWS, focusing on impact impact-based MHEWS. A new service driven business is critical. A warning for any hazard—no matter how model needs to be explored and developed. Larger, accurate—is not enough. Being able to understand and regional-level enterprises can also shoulder some of the respond effectively to warnings through appropriate responsibility for ongoing maintenance and improvement anticipatory action is central to a resilient society. To take to ensure needs-responsive EWS, while engaging micro-, appropriate anticipatory action, authorities and the general small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in population need to understand the potential impacts of any national processes will help services reach the last mile hazard. A culture of preparedness is a key ingredient for and strengthen inclusion by enabling business owners desirable outcomes of such actions. to define their needs and help build the impact-based MHEWS. Leveraging private sector capabilities without Regional ownership of the roadmap is vital, as the jeopardizing public hydromet service provision is key to successful implementation of the strategic initiatives maximizing socioeconomic benefits (World Bank 2019). will require collaboration and resourcing at international, However, this is not achievable in the Caribbean without an regional, and national levels. To implement the roadmap, additional layer of entrepreneurs and innovators who will regional organizations and their member state agencies build the new products and services and essentially act as will need to provide direction, leadership, and commitment. intermediaries. NMHS will not have the capacity to do this. Prepared as a strategic document to guide regional CIMH is currently working with U.S. Agency for International actions for developing a MHEWS, which will over time be Development (USAID) to experiment with initiating this strengthened into a robust, cascading, national-regional approach. impact-based MHEWS, implementation will be largely at a national level and will require strong national and The transformative gender and inclusion methodology local operational coordination and interoperability to be is integral to roadmap implementation. As well as sustained and remain relevant. ensuring an ongoing examination of who is most at risk, who has access to the information needed to generate Regional roadmap investments would generate twice early warnings, how and to whom warnings are issued, the benefits per dollar spent than a patchwork of and the adequacy of anticipatory actions triggered by parallel national investments. The mutually reinforcing alerts, this will help ensure vulnerable groups participate strategic initiatives are expected to demonstrate return on in and contribute to disaster risk reduction, preparedness, investment that will inform strategic planning and may help response, and recovery.12 leverage regional funding to build and sustain Caribbean capacity to deliver national and regional impact-based MHEWS. Securing the necessary financial resources 12 Globally, the connection between EWS and the rights of vulnerable groups stems from the interaction of the Sendai Framework, Beijing Declaration and the Platform for Action, and the Convention on Human Rights of People with Disabilities. 18 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN requires government endorsement to ensure national water, climate and geophysical hazards, exposure, and budgets support ongoing operationalization; resourcing vulnerability—needed to produce risk-based warnings for national MHEWS roadmaps has been a challenge, however communities and sectors. Such constraints adversely Cost-Benefit-Analysis shows a regional approach will lead affect key institutions’ ability to understand causal hazard to national cost savings; the fact that there is also greater processes and develop robust methodologies for delivering confidence in its economic efficiency should assist in continually improving impact-based services. leveraging needed investments. Countries should prioritize capacity building and The policy and regulatory environment will need to retention to ensure the sustainability of impact- advance in concert with technical progress, with all based MHEWS implementation and ongoing change participating states implementing CDEMA’s Model National management. Knowledge and skills training are required at MHEWS Policy. Supporting a regionally harmonized all levels to apply available tools and techniques to ensure approach is essential for interagency data-sharing, the relevant institutions can manage change effectively to developing the applications and modeling that are crucial ensure the sustainability of introducing new techniques for IBF transition, and facilitating the expansion of private or technologies. A systematic approach to preparing sector collaboration along the whole EWS value chain. and implementing a tailored capacity development plan should allow for identifying capacity gaps. Organizations Data policy development is challenging, yet crucial should be able to offer an interesting career path, higher for impact-based MHEWS delivery. Although there salary, and opportunities for self-development to attract is considerable capacity in the region, there are also professionals and address the risk of brain drain. Without significant challenges. Chief among these is the ability and these prospects, retaining skilled and qualified staff is willingness to share data, and the lack of understanding difficult. of the consequences of withholding data—on weather, 19 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Civil society plays a crucial role in the implementation boundaries of the entire global weather enterprise from the of MHEWS and its inclusion in all efforts to strengthen public, private, and academic sectors (Thorpe and Rogers the regional impact-based MHEWS is vital. It guides an 2018). Applying scientific advances to strengthening early inclusive approach to gender and vulnerable groups to warning systems and building new technologies to address ensure it reaches the people, sectors, and businesses community, national, regional and global challenges is that are most at risk. Ensuring inclusive service design crucial for bringing about some of the changes proposed in and delivery and measuring effectiveness by the ability the roadmap. to trigger appropriate action will help create accessible products and services that benefit all community members Together, the strategic initiatives outlined in this roadmap (Stough and Kang 2015). Acknowledging different groups’ chart a course to bring timely and actionable impact- roles adds knowledge and experience to ensure the delivery based MHEWS to all exposed people, communities, and of people-centered services. sectors while also lessening overall costs. Implementing the roadmap requires an enabling policy, legislative, and Involving private sector actors—from MSMEs to large regulatory environment that keeps up with technical enterprises—is vital. Doing so will enable countries to advances; smart investments for strengthening institutional leverage new technologies, reach the last mile through and human resources capacity in a sustainable manner, more effective dissemination, ensure communications involving the private sector; and a people-centered are locally tailored, improve the shock responsiveness approach inclusive of gender, community stakeholders, of communities and businesses, strengthen demand and vulnerable groups. The Caribbean stands to gain from for developing and sustaining services, and help provide a regional IBF approach to strengthening and streamlining continuity in maintenance and continual improvement. end-to-end impact-based MHEWS. A phased approach to implementation will capitalize on quick and easy wins in The academic sector is an important vehicle for growth the short term, build new and sustainable capacities in the in the hydromet and other hazard domains. Research and medium term, and harness emerging opportunities over the development ensure the ability to innovate and push the longer term. 20 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN 1 VISION AND PURPOSE OF THE ROADMAP 21 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Regional context management authorities and the general population must also understand the potential impact of hazards. The Caribbean is impacted every year by multiple shocks caused by hydrometeorological (hydromet), seismic, Impact-based MHEWS that provide early and actionable environmental, or health-related events. Characterized by information to protect lives, assets, and livelihoods are high levels of multi-hazard risk across states and overseas a critical requirement for dealing with these shocks. The territories of different sizes, with diverse technical and region increasingly needs to find cost-effective ways to human resource capacities, institutional arrangements, improve regional and national impact-based MHEWS as cultures, and languages, and with exclusive economic it experiences the compound effects of multiple hazards zones that rely on maritime trade, security, food resources, and—as the COVID-19 pandemic (Tilleray and Gill 2020) and tourism, the Caribbean region suffers over $1.6 billion and 2021 volcanic eruption on St. Vincent13 highlighted— in direct natural hazard-triggered disaster damages on cascading impacts when different hazards intersect. average each year (World Bank 2018). The number of The costs associated with increasing incidences of natural people exposed to floods in the region increased by 70 disasters have contributed to the further deterioration of percent between 2000 and 2020 and will keep rising with the fiscal situation in many small Caribbean states. On climate change (Rozenberg et al. 2021). average, the annual cost of disasters for small states is These impacts are expected to become more diverse estimated to be nearly 2 percent of gross domestic product and important. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate (GDP) (Acevedo Mejía 2016). Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report sets out Investing in MHEWS is one of the most cost-effective the undeniable reality of climate change, with severe ways to build measurable value. The Global Commission implications for Small Island Developing States, including on Adaption finds that investments to strengthen early the Caribbean. According to the IPCC’s high confidence warning systems and services (EWS) have the most projection, in the coming decades, the Caribbean region will advantageous benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of all the adaptive witness a declining trend in summer rainfall, with higher investments analyzed (figure 1.1.) (GCA 2019). Further evapotranspiration leading to increased aridity and more studies estimating the regional economic benefits of severe agricultural and ecological droughts. In parallel, MHEWS found an average range of 3–15 times per excessive heat is a growing public health threat—for every dollar invested (Subbiah, Bildan and Narasimhan 2008), degree Celsius above a threshold level, deaths can increase while a World Bank study on improving hydromet and by 2–5 per cent (WHO-WMO 2012). warning services in developing countries (Hallegatte 2012) Advances in science and technology have made it possible reached even greater BCRs (factors of 4–35) through to forecast many hazards, and for responsible institutions a policy mix that targeted both direct benefits from to disseminate accurate warning information in a timely disaster risk reduction actions and indirect impacts via fashion. Yet the global challenge is that each year, resilience building actions, with the caveat that institutional hazardous events cause avoidable casualties and damage fragmentation and coordination issues made this extremely to property and infrastructure, with adverse economic, difficult in practice. social, and environmental consequences for communities that can persist for many years. This is exacerbated by chronic underfunding faced by the region for maintaining, forecasting, and delivering targeted early warning services, and building capacity to take risk reduction, preparedness, and response actions. Regional and international cooperation are essential for societies to get timely access to high-quality, actionable information to mitigate the threat of these hazards. But warnings alone are not enough; to take appropriate action, civil protection and emergency 13 https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/Executive%20Summary%20SVG%20PDNA%20Volcanic%20Eruption.pdf. 22 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN FIGURE 1.1. COMPARATIVE BENEFIT-COST-RATIOS OF EWS AND OTHER ADAPTATION INVESTMENTS ADAPTIVE INVESTMENTS BENEFIT-COST RATIO 1:1 5:1 10:1 Strengthening early warning systems Making new infrastructure resilient Improving dryland agriculture crop production Protecting mangroves Making water resources management more resilient Source: GCA 2019 A 2016 desk review of EWS in the Caribbean (Collymore Vision 2016) recommends developing a regional MHEWS strategy or roadmap and suggests that the rapidly changing nature This roadmap has a proactive, rather than reactive, and complexity of hazards, society, and technology means vision. Formulated in consultation with the Regional that countries need to transition from a predominantly Early Warning Systems Consortium (REWSC), the vision techno-scientific approach to warning system architecture statement aspires to create a thriving regional culture of toward a new people-centered, impact-based MHEWS safety through “a regional model for inclusive and reliable culture. Recommendations include anchoring EWS multi-hazard impact-based early warning systems and in stakeholders’ risk management plans at all levels, services that are effective in protecting lives, livelihoods embracing harmonized and standardized monitoring and increasing resilience in the Caribbean”. In its role and evaluation frameworks to assess performance, and as a strategic and advisory body for advancing and applying value chain analysis and prioritization to areas strengthening EWS coordination within the Caribbean, the of focus, actions, and limited resources. It notes that REWSC envisions this strategic impact-based MHEWS achieving all this ultimately calls for a change in mindset. process as a Caribbean-owned tool to increase coherence, enhance coordination and collaboration at national and The compounding effects and cascading impacts of the regional levels, effectively address weaknesses, harmonize COVID-19 pandemic in the region highlight the value in efforts, provide a regional framework for national-level anticipating, preventing, and mitigating negative effects goal setting and activities, and ultimately leverage and and economic losses to major revenue-producing sectoral coordinate investments to achieve cost-efficient solutions industries, as well as micro-, small- and medium-sized for the region. The principal focus is on achieving people- enterprises (MSMEs). The latter have a specific gender centered and sustainable regional impact-based MHEWS. dimension, and broadly support livelihoods and community The roadmap is designed to contribute to the process for resilience with critical goods and services.14 Providing strengthening and streamlining MHEWS to realize this timely, high-quality risk information to all segments of the transformational vision for the region. population and sectoral stakeholders is crucial for keeping people safe, protecting livelihoods, and bolstering the sustainability of economic planning, trade facilitation, and Purpose of the roadmap long-term development strategies (CARICOM 2017). Given the multiple hazards affecting the Caribbean, having an operational MHEWS is vital. But ensuring there is one in each Caribbean Community (CARICOM) member state will require major investment in national institutions’ legislative, 14 Interview with Ulric Trotz, deputy director and science advisor emeritus at CCCCCs (March 16, 2020). 23 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN infrastructure, technical, and human resources as well as components at regional and national levels. regional and national coordination mechanisms. The region needs a system of systems to achieve an integrated end-to- Regional entities have done much foundational work end impact-based MHEWS structure to maximize efficiency in the Caribbean. Standardized frameworks already and effectiveness in the use of often limited resources. being developed in the Caribbean include the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency’s (CDEMA) This roadmap offers a common framework to optimize Model National MHEWS Policy, Comprehensive Disaster benefit-cost ratio and encourage coherence in national Management (CDM) Strategy 2014–24, Caribbean Pathway expenditure as well as a framework for donor investments for Building Resilience, and the Early Warning Information and activities that do not always align with national Systems Across Timescales in the Caribbean (EWISACTs) and regional priorities, leading to fragmentation and Roadmap and Plan of Action 2020–30. inefficiencies. The strategic initiatives presented here offer a set of approaches to leverage regional-level capacities In particular, supporting countries in establishing CDEMA’s and build stronger foundations at national level while Model National MHEWS Policy provides a framework for transitioning from an EWS for hydrometeorological hazards developing harmonized national impact-based MHEWS. to impact-based MHEWS. This roadmap does not purport CDEMA’s EWS checklist has begun to establish a baseline, to present an all-inclusive set of initiatives accompanied by which can be used as a regionally harmonized national a prescriptive implementation plan, and as such, does not assessment process that can also be rolled up to provide outline required investments or implementation timelines. regional benchmarking. At the same time, the Caribbean However, a phased approach is recommended to help Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) and the optimize the sequencing of implementing the various Caribbean Meteorological Organization Headquarters Unit roadmap activities. There is also more than one way to take (CMO HQ) have developed robust regional institutional forward the strategic initiatives, thus it is up to the regional mechanisms and technical foundations that are already and national agencies to decide on the most appropriate delivering regional hydromet services and furthering the implementation modality. development of impact-based forecasting (IBF) in the region. To add value to these foundations, sustained By exploring existing opportunities and challenges, this institutional and policy efforts and investments are required roadmap addresses the need to develop a standardized to build the enabling environment that will ensure people- regional framework or architecture and associated centered MHEWS delivery. interoperable standards. It presents ten strategic initiatives that build on national and regional capacities to bring The roadmap does not substitute institutional, national, timely and actionable impact-based MHEWS to all exposed and regional strategies and plans. Rather, it builds on the people, communities, and sectors while also improving work that has been done in the region and contributes overall cost-efficiencies. The theory of change driving the to enhanced delivery and coherence across regional roadmap is threefold: strategies for disaster risk management (DRM), resilience, and adaptation to climate change. It proposes a phased • Harmonization of efforts: A coherent and sustainable approach to help optimize the sequencing of implementing regional strategy can align the multiple approaches national and regional activities over the course of the and harmonize national efforts in strengthening EWS. roadmap. • Strengthening the regional cascading system: A regional MHEWS can optimize coordination and collaboration at national and regional levels, including through benchmarking and assessment to inform progress. • Leveraging funding for a joint goal: Efficient and targeted efforts improve return on investment and attract necessary funding, including climate financing to strengthen and sustain a MHEWS and its 24 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN FIGURE 1.2. PURPOSE OF THE ROADMAP AND CROSSCUTTING PRINCIPLES 1 2 3 Harmonizing Strengthening the regional Leveraging funding CROSSCUTTING efforts cascading system for a joint goal PRINCIPLES 1 People- centered EWS 2 Expanding EWS to Lorem ipsum MHEWS 3 Concept of the future system: MHIEWS Crosscutting principles assessment that can also inform regional benchmarking to ensure needs-responsive progress. For example, in The roadmap is shaped along three crosscutting principles: the private sector, building MSME resilience not only people-centered EWS, expanding EWS to MHEWS, and neatly overlaps with gender and youth, but also directly gradually incorporating impact-based forecasting (IBF) to contributes to reducing poverty and other forms of labor embrace a regional culture of impact-based MHEWS. and economic vulnerability. As such, it is essential to look at the Caribbean private sector as people driven. Principle 1. People-centered EWS Principle 2. Expanding EWS to MHEWS End-to-end EWS are inclusive of all at-risk groups, since reaching the last mile means that all groups Coping with simultaneous multi-hazard events is a reality in must participate in preparedness and response so that the Caribbean. The need to transition from EWS to MHEWS everyone’s needs and capacities inform action planning. is well recognized across the region, and some elements Focusing on people and their livelihoods from risk to are already being operationalized, though at a slower- response enables a truly efficient end-to-end EWS that than-needed speed (which can also challenge developed responds to the situation of most at-risk people. Inclusivity countries). Implementing CDEMA’s Model National MHEWS also directly improves the functionality and impact of Policy offers a strong regionally harmonized foundation for MHEWS by centering people and last mile needs in the examining the institutional and legislative frameworks that system design. govern mandates for MHEWS. Disasters affect gender and age groups differently, as A multi-hazard system harmonizes efforts by considering they face different levels of exposure, participation, power, the differences and similarities between hazards, the and vulnerability, which influences risk. Gender inequality compounding effects of multiple hazards overlapping, and social marginalization of vulnerable groups—such as and their cascading impacts as a process that starts with youth, elderly people, or people with disabilities—increases understanding risks, monitoring and forecasting hazard vulnerability, heightens exposure to risk, and restrains events, disseminating and communicating warnings, and response and recovery capacity, often resulting in a post- includes processes for effective community and sectoral disaster downward spiral of poverty. planning, preparedness, and response. A people-centered approach allows the roadmap to Having a common framework for coping with complex capture historically neglected social segments, and the disasters helps authorities, sectoral stakeholders, and at- EWS checklist provides a mechanism for periodic national 25 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN risk populations understand the full spectrum of secondary Impact-based forecasts and warnings, on the other hand, and tertiary effects and therefore provide more targeted integrate information about the potential severity and warnings, on where to focus preparedness and response likelihood of occurrence of weather impacts. Tailoring efforts (Rogers et al. 2020a). IBF communications to different audiences makes an important difference in how effectively recipients can Principle 3. Concept of the future system: impact- prepare for, respond to, and act on the communicated based MHEWS15 information. In an impact-based approach, the focus shifts from “what Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic and extreme a shock will be”—for example, how many millimeters of weather events underscore the need to understand the rain will fall or what the windspeed will be—to “what a vulnerability of individuals, communities, and societies shock will do”; that is, who will be affected, where, and how. to provide reliable, targeted guidance and warnings and It is not only a case of analyzing, monitoring, observing, ensure people’s willingness and capacity to prepare for a and forecasting risk (as is common under IBF). It is also reasonable worst-case scenario based on informed action necessary to tailor and direct communication to persons planning. Meteorology and hydrology are making good and businesses at risk and develop shock-specific action progress through IBF in addressing social determinants planning at appropriate timescales to ensure effective of vulnerability and understanding underlying issues in preparedness, risk reduction, and response planning preparation and action planning, a process that is now and actions are carried out in all potentially impacted also being applied to health and other sectors in the region households, communities, and sectors. (Rogers et al. 2020a). This roadmap recognizes the fundamental distinction The ability to understand and respond effectively to between a general hazard warning and an impact- warnings through appropriate anticipatory action is central based warning by including the specific vulnerability of to a resilient society; and impact-based MHEWS offers the people, livelihoods, and assets or property at risk. a common approach that can over time be applied and For example, when considering hydromet hazards, tailored for all hazards, so all stakeholders and sectors can conventional weather forecasts and warnings focus on anticipate and effectively manage the complexity of current determining meteorological thresholds for extreme events. and future risks. 15 In this roadmap, we differentiate between IBF as an activity focused on EWS observation and forecasting pillars (box 3.1) while including the design of warning messages, and an impact-based EWS, which also considers pillars that encompass inclusive dissemination, preparedness, and early action planning—for example, implementing additional communication channels to deliver warnings to specific persons in at-risk catchments or neighbourhoods, updating community emergency plans, implementing drills, and so on. 26 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN 2 OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES 27 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN To achieve the roadmap vision, it is necessary to first recognize the foundations the region has built, including BOX 2.1. OVERCOMING CHALLENGES IN CDEMA’s CDM Strategy, the REWSC, the Caribbean ACCESSING AND USING EPS DATA IN THE Meteorological Organization (CMO) network of national REGION hydromet services and specialized committees, and CIMH With the exception of the French Overseas Territories and serving as the Caribbean Regional Climate Center, with Cuba17, there are no other EPS operating in the Caribbean. its sectoral alliance, EWISACTs. Combined with recent Although countries have access to limited EPS products, the advances in science and technology, these and other underlying data are not shared, except by the National Oceanic developments open significant opportunities to address the and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and National Centers for Environmental challenges the Caribbean faces.16 Prediction (NCEP). For example, through the Eastern Caribbean Severe Weather Forecasting Programme (SWFP), Key opportunities include enhancing collaboration and weather forecast offices have access to ensemble prediction supporting regional institutions to build on existing skills products from Canada, Europe, and the United States. and knowledge across various agencies at national and Forecasting of extreme weather in the mid-latitudes has regional levels, investing in access to, analysis and use of tremendously improved over recent decades through different types of data using modern technologies, and the use of limited-area models with higher space and providing the necessary ongoing and additional training time resolution. But if Caribbean countries wish to use and capacity building to overcome barriers that hamper limited-area EPS or other limited-area numerical weather effective preparedness and response. Using multiple prediction (NWP) systems, EPS data are not available for the boundary conditions of the limited-area models. The channels and tools for people-centered information Global Basic Observing Network is intended to provide dissemination also offers a ready opportunity to begin more data from World Meteorological Organization (WMO) delivering tangible benefit at the national level from the members for higher-resolution NWP models. Reciprocal implementation of the roadmap at the regional level. arrangements could be made for more model output and products from NWP centers to be made available to The roadmap also recognizes the challenges inherent in National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS), building synergies and adding value across the region, with but would require changing the rules NWP centers operate activities requiring different timings and diverse partners. under, over time. For example, mainstreaming existing and emerging tools and techniques—such as ensemble prediction systems The recent eruption of La Soufrière volcano in St. Vincent (EPS), artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning and the Grenadines highlights the need for national and (ML) for dealing with uncertainty through probabilistic regional air quality measurement networks. This is further forecasting—and developing risk-based warnings for underscored by the need to track other contributors of communities and sectors is a complex challenge well diminished air quality in the region, including high Sahara dust worth harnessing as an explicit objective (box 2.1). concentrations—composed of elevated particulate matter (PM) PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations18 —across the region, which are known to pose adverse health conditions (box 2.2). BOX 2.2. HEALTH-RELATED IMPACTS OF SAHARA DUST AND THE SOUFRIÈRE VOLCANO ERUPTION Ash from the 2010 Soufrière volcano eruption in Montserrat has been linked to an increase in asthma admissions in Guadeloupe (Cadelis et al. 2013), while another study of air pollution and respiratory health among elementary school children in Guadeloupe (Amadeo et al. 2015) finds that, in over 70 percent of the schools exceeded mean PM10 levels in the WHO Air Quality Guidelines, with Saharan dust strongly suspected to be the driver. Humidity interacting with dust from the Sahara has been shown to produce particulate matter in Barbados, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and U.S. Virgin Islands, resulting in increased visits to the emergency department with exacerbated asthma (Akpinar-Elci et al. 2015; Garrison et al. 2014; Gyan et al. 2005; Monteil 2008). Recent studies (Akpinar-Elci et al. 2015) have linked dust exposure to low birth weight and other effects on fetal growth. 16 The status quo is presented in detail in World Bank (2020). 17 https://www.mdpi.com/2673-4931/19/1/5/htm 18 PM2.5 is particulate matter 2.5 microns or less in diameter and is generally described as fine particles. PM10 is particulate matter 10 microns or less in diameter. By way of comparison, a human hair is about 100 microns , so roughly 40 fine particles could be placed on its width. 28 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Strong regional institutions foster (UWI), national gender bureaus, the NOAA, and the United collaboration along the EWS value chain Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization– Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (UNESCO- Growing societal vulnerabilities, coupled with the rapid pace IOC)—strong interinstitutional coordination, cooperation, and of technical advances in anticipating hazards at different collaboration are essential. spatial and temporal scales, build pressure to improve the services that existing EWS can deliver. In a diverse island region where high-resolution surface-based observation Leveraging the power of data sharing and systems are already technically and financially challenging, efficient information use for event forecasting fragmentation between monitoring systems and forecasting capabilities for different types of threat further inhibits Data are the necessary fuel for MHEWS. Fully harnessing efficient collaboration. For example, in Saint Lucia, there the power of data requires new norms for looking at are observation platforms (Automatic Weather Stations how weather, water, climate, and geophysical processes (AWS), rain gauges, and stream gauges) from three different affect productivity. Building institutions’ ability to access, equipment manufacturers that are not interoperable. Because understand, and manipulate hazard, exposure, and they transmit data differently, decoding and processing vulnerability data is vital, to inform decisions under is difficult. Neither the National Meteorological Services dynamic conditions. Efficient data collection, management, (NMS) nor the National Hydrological Services (NHS)/Water and use—vital for continually improving impact-based Resource Management Agencies (WRMA) have the expertise warning services—would allow the region to transition or finances to maintain three different systems, resulting in a from deterministic forecasting to using and interpreting breakdown of the data network. probabilistic forecasts. This, in turn, would increase the integration and uptake of risk-informed decision-making Making sense of the region’s mosaic of MHEWS monitoring, platforms. modeling, and forecasting systems will require economies of scale, cooperation to minimize duplication, and analysis of Coping with simultaneous multi-hazard events is also a the institutional and legislative frameworks that govern EWS reality. The outbreak of COVID-19 occurring concurrently mandates in a tightly constrained fiscal space. Implementing with one of the most active hurricane seasons in the CDEMA’s Model National MHEWS Policy offers a strong Atlantic basin in 2020 presented challenges that resulted foundation to build on, and countries need support to realize in adjustments to the single-hazard response system—for this. The ability to understand and respond effectively to example, in shelter and evacuation protocols and related warnings through appropriate behaviors and early action is information for pandemics coinciding with hurricanes. Haiti’s central to resilient societies and communities, and hydromet experience of an earthquake followed by a direct hit from a services worldwide are transitioning toward impact-based tropical storm in 2021 showed that regional institutions can MHEWS (Rogers et al. 2020). Cooperation is crucial, and as deal with multiple simultaneous hazards through regional hazards do not observe borders the interconnectedness of and national partnerships. Similarly, in 2021, St. Vincent and multi-hazard impacts in the Caribbean is a strong motivator the Grenadines showed its ability to simultaneously deal with (CMO 2018). COVID-19 and volcanic activity. These events demonstrate the growing ability of the Caribbean disaster and hydromet Recognizing the solid foundations and unique strengths of communities to rank the risks of multiple simultaneous the region’s institutional architecture and the considerable hazards and rapidly identify priorities and needs. capacities of regional, national, and international organizations—including the CARICOM Secretariat and its As well as the dramatic growth in data volume, a revolution institutions, such as CMO HQ, CIMH, CDEMA, the Caribbean is taking place in using ML and AI analytics to merge data Public Health Agency (CARPHA), and the Caribbean from different aspects of society, distinguishing signals from Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCCs), as well as noise and enabling data on one aspect to inform seemingly the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) and disparate, yet indirectly related, aspects of society (Thorpe its Commission, the Caribbean Water and Wastewater and Rogers 2022). While observational data have always Association (CWWA), the Global Water Partnership – been important in meteorological forecasting, the advent Caribbean (GWP-C), the University of the West Indies of ML and AI as prediction algorithms highlight the high 29 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN value of meteorological, hydrological, and ancillary datasets, accessible and useful to a wide range of the population. particularly for applying to high-resolution, very short- and short-range high-impact weather and flood forecasts. For example, it is possible to produce aspects of the high- Using technology and information systems to resolution forecasts that depend on the lower-resolution unlock impact-based MHEWS’ potential elements of the atmospheric flow using post-processing methods based on ML (Palmer 2019, Rogers et al. 2020, Accuracy and timeliness of warnings translate into more Rogers and Tsirkunov 2021). Unlocking the potential for Big confidence in risk-informed decisions and actions. In terms Data, ML and AI are on the horizon.The national MHEWS of accuracy, NMHS ability to provide essential forecasts roadmaps completed to date indicate that countries in the and warnings for extreme events is curbed by deficiency Caribbean region face common limitations with hazard in both the integration of other data needed for useful IBF maps, repositories for central data and consolidated risk information—such as social determinants of vulnerability, information, as well as disaggregated infrastructure exposure land use and topographic models—and human capacity and social vulnerability data. Significant investment has and skills, such as the ability to use ensemble forecasting. gone into expanding hydromet observation and real-time The transition to IBF involves a shift from decision support early warning networks across the region over the last two founded on experience to decision support based on decades, with the CCCCCs coordinating the delivery of funds geospatial and risk probabilities. Although it will take time, from development partners and the CIMH identifying target this is a necessary process. locations for these new investments. In spite of the many stations that have been installed to date, there is an urgent The popularity of smartphones and mobile devices offers need for more stations, and for standardized protocols, new warning communication and alert delivery methods, hardware, expertise, and technology. While a multiscale and cellphone-based alert systems are key for disseminating approach is needed to strengthen overall capacity in the early warnings—that is, before disaster strikes. But while region, ensuring national repositories are strong enough to cell broadcasting services and wireless emergency alerts feed into regional repositories is also a key priority requiring have gained international recognition19 for increasing the support. reach of warnings, their use in the Caribbean has been limited. Severe weather exposure of critical communications infrastructure, such as cell towers, is a known risk. CIMH is in parallel working on low-cost and sustainable solutions Using multiple channels and tools to for shock-resilient hydromet services to make sure there disseminate people-centered information is no disruption in service provision to the population. It is An accurate forecast is only useful if it is communicated also important to understand how audiences interpret and effectively and received in time to allow for risk mitigation respond to these alerts. Social media platforms offer an measures. This is especially important for IBF, which requires opportunity for officials to tune into the perceptions and a detailed understanding of the target audience, including any emotions of those at risk, adjust the warnings and risk emergency contingency and business continuity measures communications to reduce fear and anxiety, and provide the that need to be considered if the normal dissemination routes information people need in ways that are actionable. fail. IBF requires developing decision support systems and expanding dissemination efforts, to achieve responsiveness and resilience. This means optimizing graphical displays and Building capacity to overcome barriers to deploying a variety of modern two-way as well as traditional effective preparedness and response dissemination methods—including radio, television, cell phones, internet-based platforms and apps, web pages, social media, The progressive development and integration of risk and community and religious leaders and institutions—to ensure information, together with ongoing IBF-strengthening warning information reflects exposure and vulnerability, is efforts, constitute an excellent foundation for the systematic 19 As an example, a European Union directive on December 11, 2018 mandated all member states to implement public warning systems by June 21, 2022 to better protect citizens, visitors, and tourists during natural disasters and other crisis situations. Article 110 of the directive states that this public warning system must be cell phone-based and capable of sending geolocated mass alerts. 30 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN application of risk-informed early action planning at the roadmap include updating Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk community level and risk-informed business continuity (HVR) data and analysis; updating and enacting legislation planning (BCP) within all levels of the private sector. and SOPs to guide agencies; technical training; increased frequency and targeting of communications campaigns; But disseminating and communicating targeted warning better communications reach, targeting and resilience; information does not ensure that at-risk people, communities, multistakeholder communications strategy; standardised and sectors will take timely and appropriate action before an methodologies; data and information sharing mechanisms anticipated hazard hits. Building on strong regional disaster and protocols; and increased tests and exercises. management skills in scenario planning, drills, and simulation exercises, national disaster management organizations Building on the activities and achievements of ongoing (NDMOs) and the Red Cross movement in the Caribbean projects and initiatives that strengthen MHEWS and region are uniquely positioned to mobilize participatory hydromet services in the CARICOM region opens avenues training that is inclusive of all vulnerable groups. Normative for consolidating regional and national resources through training can ensure that every community develop an effective coordination at all levels. For example, operational anticipatory community-based risk-informed action plan ocean services in the wider Caribbean region provide up-to- that identifies actions linked to specific risk forecasts so that date, vital information for coastal communities, small-scale individuals, households, and communities know who needs fishers, enterprises, and governments, enabling them to to do what, when. take decisions on sustainable development and the Blue Economy. Building on regional efforts within the private sector, including through the Caribbean Network of Chambers of Commerce Opportunities to use, coordinate, and share geospatial (CARICHAM) and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk information and satellite data can enhance each country’s Reduction (UNDRR) Alliance for Disaster Resilient Societies observation network, and some state-of-the-art components (ARISE) network20, the French Red Cross regional platform are already in place in the region. The WMO Flash Flood (PIRAC)21 and cooperation with NDMOs, a similar focus Guidance System (FFGS)22 is operational in Haiti and the on increasing capacity and strengthening BCP will benefit Dominican Republic, while Saint Lucia is in the process of businesses at all scales. Outreach and training are needed implementing its FFGS. The Coastal Inundation Forecasting to ensure that, as well as large national and regional or Initiative (CIFI),23 funded by the U.S. Agency for International international enterprises, MSMEs and youth and women-headed Development’s (USAID) Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance businesses also develop multi-hazard risk-informed action plans. (BHA) and led by the NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC in Miami) is operational for Haiti and the Dominican Republic, and capable of providing detailed prediction of coastal flooding from tropical cyclone surges. USAID BHA Strong initiatives offer strong opportunities to plans to expand CIFI to other Caribbean countries over five overcome challenges years (from 2023). With the establishment of an operational This roadmap helps to navigate the key institutional, regional center in Martinique, the WMO’s SWFP24 is in pre- capacity building, and awareness-raising constraints operational phase for the Eastern Caribbean (as of 2022); identified in the region (Fanning et al. 2021). National Road CMO HQ and CIMH are leading the training for its use, and Map priorities identified by CDEMA Participating States most countries are building their capability. (PS) that can be addressed through implementation of the 20 https://www.caribbeanchambers.net/caricham-bcp 21 PIRAC has developed Small Business Disaster Preparedness tools for the Eastern Caribbean: https://pirac.croix-rouge.fr/en/our-missions/ disaster-preparedness/ 22 https://public.wmo.int/en/projects/ffgs. 23 https://community.wmo.int/activity-areas/Marine/CIFI . 24 https://community.wmo.int/swfp-eastern-caribbean. 31 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN 3 STRATEGIC INITIATIVES FOR BUILDING A RESILIENT FUTURE 32 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN There is a solid foundation for building a Caribbean impact- region, which together provide a framework on which to based MHEWS, as identified in the Climate Risk and Early scaffold further actions that may be achievable in the near Warning Systems (CREWS) Caribbean Situation Analysis to mid-term. (World Bank 2020) and consultative process. Based on the findings of the analysis, this roadmap focuses on a set of Most of the strategic initiatives depend, to a large extent, strategic initiatives (SIs) with breakthrough potential for the on access to data. The national MHEWS roadmaps FIGURE 3.1 Overview FIGURE of the Strategic 3.1. OVERVIEW Initiatives OF THE STRATEGIC across EWS INITIATIVES pillars ACROSS EWS PILLARS Impact-based forecasting SI1 UNDERSTANDING MONITORING AND EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE RISK FORECASTING COMMUNICATIONS AND ACTION Multi-hazard operational plan SI7 Community- based action planning SI3 SI9 Multisensor precipitation grid SI2 SI8 Integrated Regional Caribbean approach geospatial emergency alert to flooding system platform SI4 SI10 Sectoral MHIEWS, private sector, and BCP Integrating SI5 health impacts SI6 Air quality 33 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN completed to date indicate that countries face common a range of country-level datasets (dynamic and static) limitations with hazard maps, repositories for central data that characterize evolving hazards and associated and consolidated risk information, as well as disaggregated vulnerabilities, which allows skilled individuals to rapidly infrastructure exposure and social vulnerability data. assess the elements of exposure and risk in watersheds Significant investment has gone into expanding hydromet that is essential for supporting early warning, planning, and observation and real-time early warning networks across decision making. Sahara dust monitoring is also part of the the region over the last two decades, with the CCCCCs regional hydromet system and, alongside coral bleaching coordinating the delivery of funds from development forecasts, is integrated into the Caribbean DEWETRA partners and the CIMH identifying target locations for Platform; sargassum detection is available at CIMH, but these new investments. In spite of the many stations that forecasting is through several partnerships; volcanic ash have been installed to date, there is an urgent need for monitoring is supported through daily modeling at CIMH, more stations, and for standardized protocols, hardware, which has also initiated some work to address oil spills. expertise, and technology. While a multiscale approach is needed to strengthen overall capacity in the region, The SIs form a next critical step toward gearing up a ensuring national repositories are strong enough to feed regional MHIEWS. Figure 3.1 shows how the principles into regional repositories is also a key priority. of an impact-based approach are fully crosscutting and encompass hazards monitoring, forecasting, Many Caribbean islands have made progress in addressing warning dissemination, and community engagement in hydromet and marine hazards, but due to population preparedness and response. When implemented together, size and financial resources, some may never be able complementarities across SIs fortify feedback loops among to do their own forecasting and will require external the four EWS pillars (box 3.1). Over time, creating a multi- support. The forecasting arrangements among CMO hazard operational plan will build on hazard monitoring and member states recognize that there is enough capacity forecasting, harnessing risk information and developing/ at the regional scale for some states and institutions enhancing alert and dissemination platforms. to provide meteorological forecasts to other states. But issuing reliable flood forecasts requires an intimate The SIs presented below are closely linked to, and aligned knowledge of, among other issues, the topography, land with, ongoing or planned initiatives in the region, which use, infrastructure conditions, geology, hydrology, and should make the proposed efforts more sustainable. antecedent conditions of local watersheds. This makes it Leveraging this close integration between the roadmap difficult for external parties to provide effective guidance on and existing regional efforts should help to accelerate, flooding without ready access to aggregated datasets. strengthen, and potentially contribute directly or indirectly to realizing the vision. Appendix A maps regional and The Caribbean DEWETRA Platform was established to national activities and details their linkages with the address this challenge by providing regional access to roadmap SIs. BOX 3.1. THE FOUR EWS PILLARS Early warning services are an integral component of DRM as a means to prevent loss of life and reduce the economic and material impact of hazard events. Effective end-to-end and people-centered EWS encompass four interrelated elements or pillars, which form the structure for conducting the scoping exercise and organizing the findings informing this roadmap: • Pillar 1. Disaster risk knowledge based on systematic data collection and disaster risk assessments. • Pillar 2. Detecting, monitoring, analyzing, and forecasting hazards and possible consequences. • Pillar 3. Official dissemination and communication of authoritative, timely, accurate, and actionable warnings and associated information on likelihood and impact. • Pillar 4. Preparedness at all levels to take timely action to respond to warnings received. The successful implementation of the roadmap will be determined by the ability to engage with and glean critical experiential information from individuals and communities concerning their vulnerability when exposed to the range of hazards that might reasonably be expected to affect them. That is to say, to succeed, any regional initiative needs to be people centered. 34 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN FIGURE 3.2. HOW IMPACT-BASED FORECASTING (IBF) WORKS Multi-hazard analysis Exposure information Reducing risk and monitoring and response information scenarios WEATHER 2 Impact estimation Warning risk level High LIKELIHOOD GEOPHYSICAL Medium Low Very Low al or nt re im ve ca in M Se in ifi M gn Si HYDRO IMPACT Vulnerability information zard Ha Understanding risk The risk from a natural hazard is determined by the combined understanding of three components: RISK Hazard: how big and how often? Vu Exposure: what elements are at risk (people, buildings, infrastructure, agriculture, etc.)? lner Vulnerability: how does each exposed element respond to the level of hazard? e ur bi s a lity Expo SI1. Supporting the transition to IBF and and warnings. Simply put, although people may realize warning services what the hazard is, they often lack an understanding of what it might do. Focusing on impacts should strengthen Rationale climate resilience by ensuring exposed people have a better Insufficient understanding of the impacts of severe understanding of the anticipated risk and are therefore hydromet hazards—by both the authorities responsible for more likely to take appropriate action to protect lives, managing emergencies and the at-risk population—can property, and livelihoods. For the impacts to be linked to lead to loss of life and have significant adverse economic the forecast, data must be shared between the technical and social consequences. This is a major gap in EWS in institutions or agencies with expertise in the phenomena most countries, including in the Caribbean, despite NMHS being predicted, the agencies with information about the dissemination of generally accurate and timely forecasts area to be impacted, and the persons likely to be affected (Figure 3.2). For example, providing IBF for a heavy rain 35 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN event requires information on the physical geography of collaborative platforms—such as the Caribbean DEWETRA the area affected, vulnerabilities of the population and Platform25 and the Caribbean Risk Information System infrastructure, as well as other useful data such as traffic (CRIS)26—integrate significant information and, when fully patterns at certain times of day. Ensuring prediction utilized, could accelerate region-wide IBF implementation. centers have adequate power, network connectivity, and Other platforms in the region, such as the CIMH- Virtual staffing, whether at permanent locations or in temporary Reality (VR) platform, also support IBF, providing a lens field centers, is also fundamental to the delivery of these into new technology applications. Such platforms support services. This was a challenge during the COVID-19 decision making and are designed to support simulation pandemic, as health protocols required reduced numbers of training exercises to improve forecaster and responder staff in forecast centers. Public education and outreach is competence. While the Caribbean DEWETRA, CRIS, and also a crucial element of IBF, which needs to be pursued in other platforms are powerful tools for integrating the parallel with tackling the more technical challenges. variety of data required for forecast-based decision making, Regional bodies have already done much of the they do not have data from all the countries. Data sharing is groundwork required for the transition. CDEMA’s Model crucial for the initiative’s success. National MHEWS Policy provides a common framework Although much has been done, efforts have been for developing national multi-hazard impact-based early fragmented. A common IBF approach will enable the warning systems. CIMH has been leading the shift to IBF region to progress more quickly and efficiently. This is since 2007, when it started providing weather scenarios in line with one of the three principles of the theory of and related potential impacts to CDEMA. Within the last change—harmonization of efforts—as part of the underlying decade, this service has expanded to include members philosophy of using a cost-effective regional approach for of the Caribbean Partner Development Group for Disaster establishing MHEWS. IBF has been initiated mainly in the Management and other regional and national partners. hydromet context, but the methodology is readily adaptable IBF concepts are core to CIMH (Caribbean Climate Centre to any hazard and can help to balance a wider MHEWS focus. (RCCs) climate services program, and the broader regional climate adaptation program is anchored on IBF principles. To elicit the required response to warnings, ongoing public education is a critical element of IBF. Acknowledging that Over the last four years, CIMH has been working with there is some capacity in this field, countries could start by the US National Weather Service and USAID BHA to pilot translating meteorological and hydrological hazards into national-level IBF through the Caribbean Weather and understandable information for decision making to help Climate Ready Nations (WCRN) Program. This includes a deliver qualitative impact-based forecasts. Countries that partnership between the Barbados Meteorological Service already practice qualitative IBF can adopt a technically and the Barbados Department of Emergency Management. more complex approach to blend hazard forecasts with The Bahamas, Jamaica, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, information on exposure and vulnerability in a more and Grenada have all started adopting elements of IBF in quantitative manner. their routine Meteorological Service operations, primarily by using simple matrices to convey the likely risks associated Objective with impending weather. With appropriate training and This initiative aims to strengthen routinely operational IBF investment, these small beginnings can be expanded services to provide actionable information on the potential into fully operational national IBF services. But nearly impact of hazards in a form that the general public, disaster all countries need additional resources to develop their managers and first responders, private sector actors, and MHEWS policy and to implement IBF warning services. other stakeholders understand and can use to protect lives, Over the last decade, extendable online multiuser livelihoods, assets, and property. Beginning with hydromet hazards, and building on experience with compound hazard 25 The Caribbean DEWETRA Platform is a spatiotemporal, decision-making, data fusion platform capable of seamlessly integrating evolving hazard data with socioeconomic and vulnerability information to support improved decision making within the disaster management community (Boyce 2018). DEWETRA is a fully operational platform used by the Italian Civil Protection Department and designed by CIMA Research Foundation to support operational activities at national or international scale. 26 https://cdema.org/cris/. 36 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN risks (for example lahars caused by rain falling on volcanic leading to GIS-enhanced impact-based forecasts and ash) this will be achieved by synchronizing regional warning services, such as integrated meteorological, efforts—for example, by developing a common terminology, hydrological, and impact-based modeling, which will agreeing on a standard color coding for risk levels, adopting be delivered as the countries develop expertise and agreed messaging, and developing blueprint guidance that engage in IBF on a routine basis. As vulnerability is one countries can consistently apply at a national level. of the key components of risk knowledge, gender and specific group-related vulnerabilities should be explicitly Approach included. Building on progress the region has already made, establishing structures to consolidate ongoing regional and Main tasks for national-level implementation national efforts and activities is vital. This will require: • Engage all national operational agencies, local authorities, gender bureaus, and community • Regional and national-level dialogues with partners representatives, to solicit their views and discuss and stakeholders to explain IBF and the rationale and practical, logistical, and operational arrangements for potential benefits of adopting it implementing IBF. This includes identifying the kinds of messages that would generate appropriate action • A blueprint to advance national IBF implementation that and may involve structured learning exchange with considers social and cultural norms, and NMHS, NDMO, practitioners from countries already engaged in IBF. and stakeholder capacity to understand who is at risk • Detailed national plans outlining the mechanisms, • Apply the IBF blueprint to develop a national IBF plan, reflecting national and community requirements, actors, roles and responsibilities, capacity building, and building on each country’s capacities and prior communications involved. experience, and providing operational guidance on Main tasks for regional-level implementation coordination mechanisms, processes, and stakeholder selection, including a focus on inclusion. • Establish a regional dialogue around IBF to develop a common understanding of and approach to IBF, • Based on the regional plan, prepare national IBF including identifying ways to strengthen the policy and training plans for all members of the national institutional enabling environment. Formal partnerships operational teams, including NMHS, DRM specialists through high-level operational partnership agreements and responders, and community representatives. should follow. These would describe the commitment Regional trainings also include business associations, of the various agencies to sharing data, information, guilds, chambers of commerce and small business and expertise and, respective roles and responsibilities. associations. • Develop a regional IBF blueprint that reflects the • Strengthen the systematic collection of national outcome of regional engagements to serve as guidance data, maps, and information on vulnerability and for countries to elaborate their national plans. The exposure as a key IBF tool, including historical agreed regional blueprint should outline partnerships, records for understanding impact thresholds and education and training, communication, and monitoring demographic data on gender (using national gender and evaluation requirements. bureau knowledge), disability, vulnerable groups, and local governance, and critical infrastructure data • Mobilize a regional training plan on the IBF concept, on roads, bridges, schools, hospitals and clinics, principles and techniques aligned with ongoing efforts shelters, individual homes, electricity supplies, water, in the region led by CIMH. Existing regional training and sanitation systems. This information could also platforms and mechanisms should be used with capture important economic and commercial zones, new mechanisms developed as required. The initial such as ports, markets, storage facilities, hotel districts, focus will be on establishing a region-wide baseline and logistical points, as well as cultural sites which for the qualitative translation of weather forecasts play an important role in preserving the culture of into impact-based forecasts and warnings. The communities and people. training program will contain more advanced modules 37 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN • Develop risk matrices that identify thresholds sharing needs to be legislated at national level, which linking the severity of an impact with the likelihood can take considerable time and effort. The global of occurrence. Access to hazard and impact data meteorological community has a long tradition of sharing catalogues and archives is essential for this task limited data in real time for weather forecasts and at longer because historical hazard and impact data are needed. timescales for climate services; but other sectors may not have such an established tradition. • Establish regular reviews to examine and refine the system after implementing impact-based forecasts At the 11th meeting of CARICOM, it institutions, and and warnings and create feedback loops with the UN system in 2021, one session was dedicated to communities and other beneficiaries to adjust future the importance of data sharing for policy making and warning thresholds and messages. other decisions. In that session, CMO HQ and CCCCCs articulated the case for sharing data for EWS purposes— Actors especially in real-time for rapidly evolving situations like Implementing IBF and warning services requires regional flashfloods—and to expand climate knowledge to inform and national-level coordination and partnerships across climate action. many disciplines and organizations at the regional level and in each country. These include, but are not limited to, National-level funding to sustain the technical resources CMO HQ, CIMH, CDEMA, CCCCCs, NMHS, NDMOs, national is key to the success of a Caribbean geospatial platform. information and gender bureaus, social scientists—such Although most organisations and development partners as gender, vulnerable group, and behavior specialists— prefer open source applications, some agencies have government and academic institutions with expertise systems built around user-friendly, licensed software. in geographic information systems (GIS) techniques, Funding the renewal of software licenses will help maintain government agencies responsible for national census and those systems and ensure the regional platform is user- ordnance surveys, community leaders, Red Cross societies, friendly and data can be disaggregated in multiple formats and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs). The U.S. that different countries can reuse. National Weather Service has supported several countries Any future system should also build on and integrate in implementing IBF through the Caribbean WCRN existing regional data-sharing platforms such as CRIS Program, and its continued involvement is important. and the Caribbean DEWETRA platform. Agreement by USAID plans to link the CIFI warning system to WCRN and individual countries to share critical data to benefit the expand the program to more Caribbean nations in the next whole region is key to the success of any future Caribbean five years, as outlined in USAID BHA strategic planning. platform. This must be predicated on trust in the national and regional agencies these data will be shared with and an understanding of the mutual benefits of sharing these data SI2. Toward a Caribbean geospatial platform and the need for sharing in real time. Recognizing mutual benefits will require transferring knowledge and building Rationale capacity as decision makers in individual countries seldom The Caribbean requires a trustworthy, standardized, and appreciate the need to share data. Establishing clear sustainable geospatial platform to share hazard and policies that address concerns such as data security and risk information and data. Acknowledging that there are privacy will help build trust. obstacles to creating such a platform, the need for a harmonized and coordinated data sharing mechanism is Building an effective portal will require access to geospatial a requisite for building IBF capacity in the region. Although education and technology and this must be made more information on droughts, tropical cyclones, marine equal across the region. Encouraging the development climatology, and geological hazards is readily available of data literacy and analysis capability and using free at regional level and there are several online information and open source software tools will also support these dissemination platforms, fuller risk information related to efforts. Putting in place mechanisms such as regular these and other hazards is generally lacking. pooled procurements and fair cooperation agreements that respect data ownership with industry leaders will give There are data silos in each Caribbean country. Data smaller countries access to proprietary software if and 38 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN when they need it. assessments in line with best practices for handling personally identifiable information. Objective This initiative aims to significantly improve the availability • Develop a technical and political dialogue on advancing of the region’s high-quality geospatial data for the benefit interoperability to strengthen and expand regional data of all countries. Achieving this will require: consensus sharing. The focus is on facilitating the integration of on a common direction and standards for geospatial nationally available hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data and technologies; Caribbean leaders’ support for data to enable risk-informed decision making and developing national and regional capability for handling make data accessible at regional level, thus building geospatial information; enhanced information and IBF capability. Examine the roles of existing regional communication technology capabilities; technically hazard and risk data systems—specifically CRIS and skilled human resources; coordination and collaboration the Caribbean DEWETRA platform—and the feasibility among all practitioners; a legal enabling environment for of integrating data from both systems for national data sharing within and between countries; decisive and use. The OECS Commission may promote steps to coordinated political leadership at regional level; political overcome barriers and leverage data- and technology- will; and organizational will to share geospatial data and sharing benefits for countries. technologies regionally. • Formulate potential solutions to improve education and Approach training focused on Caribbean-specific applications in software development, geography, geospatial Considering the region’s political, cultural, and capacity technologies, and GIS. This can be done through challenges—which have hindered the development of a regional internship opportunities, training, twinning, standardized and sustainable geospatial platform—the and exchange programs through universities in the first step to achieve this strategic initiative is creating Caribbean, and the regional professional body, Urban a political and technical environment that is conducive and Regional Information Systems Association (URISA) to strengthening and expanding regional data-sharing, Caribbean. advancing interoperability, and improving education and training opportunities in fields such as software • Increase involvement in developing standards by: development, GIS, and geospatial technologies in the region. • Expanding the membership of existing professional organizations, such as URISA, to all Caribbean countries Main tasks and territories • Encouraging local practitioners to establish chapters of • Create systematic and standardized processes for the Open Source Geospatial Foundation in Caribbean collecting, storing, assessing, and sharing data to countries inform MHEWS in a participatory manner through a • o Encouraging national institutions to join and top-down engagement of regional organizations to participate in activities of key regional organizations define legislation and governance arrangements, and such as CDEMA, CIMH, NGOs, companies or private roles and responsibilities. Use bottom-up, national- sector organisations, regional universities, and the level engagement with communities to educate Open Geospatial Consortium, which defines the key people on the methods for determining exposure and interoperability standards between proprietary and open vulnerability and the data and information requirements source geospatial hardware and software. for these calculations. Where possible, use existing • Increasing national institutions’ participation in tools—including, for example, those available through international professional and standards development CDEMA and the International Federation of Red Cross organizations such as the United Nations Global and Red Crescent’s (IFRC) Vulnerability and Capacity Geospatial Information Management Committee, and the ISO Technical Committee 211 on Geographic Assessment—to collect disaggregated data,27 while Information/Geomatics. respecting the privacy of the persons involved in these 27 Sex-, age and disability disaggregated data as a minimum, but this may be extended to other vulnerabilities. 39 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN • Improve access to technology by: supported similar projects—for example, the Caribbean Satellite Disaster Pilot Project, which CIMH participated in, • Developing regional/national spatial data infrastructures was funded through a GEO initiative. • Increasing regional technical professional and student participation in international geospatial organizations and conferences • Establishing regional agreements on group purchases of SI3. Toward a regional multi-sensor geospatial technology (hardware and software) precipitation grid • Expanding the inclusion of free and open source software Rationale geospatial curriculum in regional post-secondary institution, as is already being done for QGIS (Quantum The current spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall data Geographic Information Systems). in the Caribbean region is insufficient to meet expanding • Offering support to companies and non-profit needs for disaster risk and emergency management, organizations that specialize in geospatial software water resource management, agriculture, and so on. This development or services in the region is principally because of the wide ocean area, complex • Fostering a culture of shared open source software topography of volcanic islands and archipelagos, NMHS development. difficulties in maintaining local automated weather stations, • Strengthen national standards and regular data rain gauges, and other observation stations due to limited collection and provision to regional organizations financial and human resources and attrition from natural toward a sustainable geospatial portal. This requires hazards, and limited sharing of rainfall data between effective and strong regional leadership, a willingness countries (Figure 3.3). from partners to work within the guidelines defined Eleven Caribbean countries30 operate radars, which provide by decision makers, and resilient operations at the rainfall estimates at a high temporal and spatial resolution prediction centers, ensuring they have adequate power, for the countries where they are located. A weather radar network connectivity, and staffing irrespective of their base reflectivity mosaic is already in place and although location. The OECS Commission may consider the countries share some radar products, they do not yet share feasibility of piloting a subregional initiative. the full volumetric data required for developing a multi- Actors sensor precipitation grid. Radars are expensive to operate and maintain, so it is not cost-effective for every country Organizations with a key implementing role in this strategic to buy and operate a radar. The 11 countries that already initiative include the REWSC for defining roles and operate radars could share more of their data with others responsibilities, regional partners such as CDEMA, CMO located within the effective hydrologic coverage, but are HQ and CIMH, 5Cs, regional universities, NMHS, NDMOs reluctant to do so, limiting the use of radars as an effective and national gender bureaus and, geospatial, statistics and regional tool for NMHS in the Caribbean. They share raster planning stakeholders within and among the OECS and reflectivities to produce a regional radar mosaic, but this is CARICOM member states. The United Nations Platform subjective and of limited value. for Space-based Information for Disaster Management and Emergency Response28 and SERVIR-Amazonia29 may It is possible to use satellite data to estimate rainfall at also play a role in providing satellite hazard information; very coarse resolution with limited accuracy. NOAA’s and an emerging market of private start-ups is offering National Environmental Satellite Data Information satellite information for humanitarian purposes, specifically Service (NESDIS)31 operates the Global Hydro Estimator, for post-disaster response. Group on Earth Observations which estimates rainfall from geostationary and orbiting (GEO) participation is also encouraged, as it has already microwave satellites, providing hourly rainfall estimates 28 https://www.un-spider.org/network/regional-support-offices/water-center-humid-tropics-latin-america-and-caribbean-cathalac. 29 https://servir.ciat.cgiar.org/servir-amazonia-to-engage-with-caribbean-stakeholders-to-foster-geospatial-service-development/. 30 Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, Belize, Martinique, Guadeloupe, French Guiana, Cayman Islands, Curaçao, Puerto Rico, and The Bahamas. 31 https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/. 40 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN FIGURE 3.3. REGIONAL MULTISENSOR PRECIPITATION GRID Initial subregional grids expand in Radar rainfall estimates stages to achieve full at a high temporal and regional, multisensor spatial resolution precipitation grid. Satellite rainfall estimates at coarse resolution with limited accuracy, valuable where no radar data are On-the-ground available. local rainfall observations As well as providing integrated rainfall estimates based on radar, satellite, and observed rainfall observations, the grid will use regional numerical weather prediction model rainfall forecasts for the next 24 hours at the best grid resolution possible. over the Caribbean at a 1-kilometer grid scale. These data strategies or approaches are needed to provide incentives are available for the Caribbean in real time and are valuable for countries to share their data. where no radar data are available. Approach For a robust regional MHEWS, high-resolution precipitation The first step will address the data gap issues and information is a critical input for flash flood modeling, slope demonstrate the value of combining rainfall, satellite-derived stability analyses, drought monitoring, and more. rainfall, and radar data to establish a high-resolution grid of estimated rainfall for the past 24 hours, linking it to a Objective forecast rainfall grid that would input into flood and flash This initiative aims to significantly increase NMHS flood EWS. This will follow a phased approach, building from hydromet forecasting capacity and MHEWS use by an initial subregional grid to expand in stages to achieve developing a high-resolution grid of observed and forecast full regional coverage. The initiative will coordinate with SI2 rainfall across the region. Over time, Caribbean rainfall to address data-sharing requirements and demonstrate grid analyses will provide a definitive, quantitative rainfall the increased benefit of combining the extremely valuable climatology that will help the region’s water-sensitive regional precipitation measurement systems to create economic sectors plan climate change adaptation and a regional grid. As well as providing integrated rainfall other related strategies. While it is possible to derive estimates based on radar, satellite, and observed rainfall gridded rainfall estimates from existing radars, these must observations, the regional grid will also use regional be adjusted with in-situ rainfall observations, alongside numerical weather prediction model rainfall forecasts for the historical climatological data. This will also create valuable next 24 hours at the best grid resolution possible. A number input and an incentive for a regional expansion of FFGS and of real-time forecast models will be evaluated for use in needed community flood EWS. Realizing that public domain this initiative. The next step is to pursue the opportunity to data such as satellite data already exists and is accessible develop a regional FFGS center that could also provide the by all countries and that sharing data significantly increases necessary regional precipitation grid to support flood EWS. their accuracy and value for all stakeholders, regional 41 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Main tasks Plan and the Caribbean Hydrometeorological Operational • Develop a phased plan for integrating multiple Plan (CHOP) (SI7) by facilitating the development of flood precipitation platforms and creating progressively and flash flood standard operational procedures (SOPs). expanded and linked subregional operational rainfall Sharing data in the region is vital. The rainfall grid project grids. This will involve identifying and prioritizing can provide a foundation for building the case of the tailored products to be developed—and the end users importance of rainfall observations to the region and hence for these services—and outlining knowledge-sharing the need to share this data. feedback loops, testing and evaluation for inclusive learning and to inform next steps. Actors CMO HQ will need to collaborate with CIMH, CWWA, • Develop a roadmap that: CDEMA, and WMO to develop the Caribbean rainfall grid and establish a regional FFGS. WMO, with flash flood • Outlines the importance of radar, addresses the issue guidance (FFG) partners NOAA, HRC, and USAID’s BHA, of host countries not receiving compensation for the is developing guidance on establishing and maintaining considerable costs of buying and maintaining radar that other countries benefit from but do not share costs, and regional FFG centers. This strategic initiative will also develop incentives for host radar countries to share radar require the participation of: data • NMHS that own and operate a radar and are willing to • Outlines the steps and commitments needed to produce share real time and historical data, and countries that the grid—such as sharing rainfall observations—and add are willing to collect and share in-situ rainfall data, and value to users disseminate the gridded rainfall data to end users • Identifies issues and solution approaches to overcome • Gender bureau knowledge, for understanding the needs barriers to data sharing, and of gender and vulnerable groups as end users • Identifies the hardware, software, and system capability requirements to develop, maintain, and analyze (sub) • NOAA, through NHC Miami and NESDIS. regional rainfall gridded estimate accuracy. • Demonstrate the value of the gridded rainfall SI4. An integrated approach to flood and estimates—for example, for flood early warning drought risk forecasting and warning systems, communities at flood risk, private sector users, government sector users for agriculture, Rationale tourism, energy, and transportation planning, and The region faces risks of both too much water - resulting water resource management—noting the importance in flooding, and too little water - resulting in drought. All of water and connected sectors from gender and Caribbean countries are vulnerable to riverine flooding, vulnerable group perspectives.32 The tailored services flash flooding, and coastal inundation, caused mostly by would show impacts through visual flood risk maps strong convective systems triggering intense rainfall events and other means, and the needs of end users would with significant run-off, storm surge, and significant swells feed back into the delivery system design. migrating from northern latitudes. While less frequent, The radar assessment study conducted for the region will coastal inundation from tsunamis caused by earthquakes inform the required activities and investments for a reliable and volcanic activities continues to be an ongoing concern, radar data and imagery network. The regional rainfall grid given the experiences associated with the 2010 Haiti contributes to SI1 by providing IBF input for the end-to- earthquake and the threat posed by the Kick’em Jenny end impact-based MHEWS system and creating tailored underwater volcano north of Grenada. Storms and floods products for NDMO use to improve disaster risk reduction are the most devastating hazards, causing the greatest decision making. It also links with the MHEWS Operational losses in terms of lives and economy (WMO 2020). 32 For example, water and related sectors play a specific role for women, who are more connected to household water and overrepresented in connected economic sectors such as agriculture, despite the land ownership structure favoring men. 42 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Riverine floodplains and coastal areas, with the highest warnings, several projects and programs are developing density of population and economic activity, have potential storm surge and marine modeling skills and collecting near- for heavy economic losses and human casualties. In recent coastal topography and bathymetry data. This includes a years, several Caribbean countries have started developing recent CCCCCs program that actively collects this type of real-time monitoring of watersheds where significant risk data in several states using Light Detection and Ranging is concentrated. These efforts are expected to expand in (Lidar). Accelerating these activities through ongoing coming years through emerging new investments, including training and frequent bathymetric and topographic data climate finance. As well as installing flood observation and collection is essential. early warning systems in watersheds, there are ongoing efforts to support flood forecasting by implementing Due to their 24x7 operations, NMHS have default warning operational numerical prediction systems, with several responsibility because torrential flash floods can occur models—including Weather Research and Forecasting any time of day or night; but they can only issue heavy (WRF)-Hydro®33 and Telemac—currently under evaluation rainfall forecasts and cannot describe the magnitude of by CIMH. The region’s experience with coastal monitoring flooding that will result. The lack of adequate rainfall data, and prediction systems has been mixed. Sea level modeling capability, hydrological forecasting systems, monitoring stations installed during the early 2000s under and coordination between the national meteorological the Caribbean Planning For Adaptation To Global Climate services and national hydrological services, where they Change (CPACC) program suffered from equipment and exist, represent barriers to establishing a credible end- other failures as well as design limitations that could not be to-end hydrologic forecast and warning service for flash easily remedied. floods, riverine floods, or landslides. It should be noted that accurate dynamic prediction of the latter is generally In recent years, new designs implemented through NOAA difficult in most, if not all, parts of the world, but many and CIMH have resulted in the deployment of more robust states do have landslide hazard maps. stations that have functioned as designed and support ongoing sea level and tsunami monitoring. Regional The region is working toward achieving an integrated high-resolution significant wave-height models, such approach to flooding, and many of the essential as CIMH’s WaveWatch-3, are also being run routinely. components are being put in place. Flash flood modeling The Barbados Meteorological Service is running SWAN and forecasting is available in selected watersheds in (Simulating Waves Nearshore) model operationally over some countries, but others recognize that this technology the near coastal regions of Barbados. CIMH is testing needs to expand to more watersheds. Few countries implementation of Telemac-2D and -3D, and the Caribbean have adequate real-time hydrologic forecasting systems, Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) is providing which predict riverine flood and water supply for water storm surge predictions for the region using the TAOS Real management, though they recognize that this situation Time Impact Forecasting System (RTFS) model, based on needs to improve. Coastal flooding is often the result of the earlier “The Arbiter of Storms (TAOS/L)” model used both riverine flooding and coastal surge from waves, swell, by CIMH. These various model outputs and observation tides, storms, tsunamis, and so on. To adequately predict data are integrated into the Caribbean DEWETRA Platform. the magnitude of coastal flooding, countries must first Improved marine observation and modeling data should predict riverine flows using rainfall runoff models with a 1 become available once the Regional Marine Forecast or 2-dimensional hydraulic model and use these alongside Support Center for the Caribbean hosted by CIMH is fully the marine model to predict the timing and extent of the operational. resulting inundation. Storm surge warnings are provided at least 24 hours ahead. This necessary coupling of models is not yet available in And although there have been improvements in issuing the Caribbean, a situation that urgently needs addressing. them, they are very broad in terms of location and impact Achieving an integrated approach to flooding will take and do not reflect the significant variability in flooding that time. More countries need to adopt flash flood modeling will result along the coastline. To further improve these and forecasting and implement real-time hydrologic 33 https://ral.ucar.edu/projects/wrf_hydro 43 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN forecasting systems. Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican enabled to protect those at risk. Republic) has an operational state-of-the-art storm surge forecasting system but, as it is not coupled to a hydrologic Objective model, it cannot accurately predict coastal inundation. This initiative aims to first reduce potential threats from One proposal for producing an initial integrated impact- flooding of all types—from intense, short-duration flash based MHEWS for flooding in the Caribbean involves flooding from small creeks to larger river flooding and combining a storm surge forecasting system with FFGS coastal flooding caused by multiple maritime factors, in the SWFP and expanding the CIFI to all countries in the including tropical storms, tides, and tsunamis. The focus of region. The benefits of establishing an integrated flood this strategic initiative is on using an integrated approach to forecasting system are enormous. Establishing an end reduce the impact of flood events for the at-risk population to end flood forecasting with the components of data by building a impact-based MHEWS operational hydromet collection, a hydrometeorological data base, meteorological environment. Building this impact-based MHEWS will also models coupled to hydrological models also establishes need to include drought forecasting. The establishment of a a water management forecasting system as well as a hydrological forecast capability is a necessary step towards drought prediction potential. Linking seasonal climate building a drought forecast system in a subsequent phase. prediction model forecasts to the E2E integrated hydrologic The hydromet environment is created by: forecasting-based system will establish needed IBF drought forecasting to provide necessary information needed to • Supporting the expansion of FFGS principles in the minimize impact of droughts. Caribbean through regional capacity building and sensitization workshops and identifying human and Much of the discussion to date has excluded tsunami- financial resources to develop and sustain a regional driven coastal inundation. Tsunami warnings do not FFGS center yet provide full coverage of the region and lead times • Running workshops to promote the implementation of are normally much shorter. Including the Caribbean hydrologic modeling systems in national and regional Tsunami Warning System in a regionally integrated institutions with appropriate mandates operational coastal inundation framework requires careful consideration. A WMO study, investigating the feasibility • Supporting a model and data integration framework and need to include the Global Tsunami Warning System that includes national and regional observation or data (as well as flash floods, severe weather, hurricanes, and collection networks, the Caribbean DEWETRA Platform, coastal flooding warning systems) in the development FFGS, CIFI, and SWFP, and others of an integrated MHEWS, concludes that scientists and practitioners have not reached consensus on how or • Eventually linking climate data and seasonal to interannual climate forecasting models to hydrologic whether these systems could be integrated effectively modeling systems to produce Impact Based drought (WMO 2019). The underlying issues revolve around forecasting capabilities. data collection (common standards), data exchange (interoperable systems), and data access and use (data- • Strengthening regional storm surge forecasting through sharing policies). The USAID BHA and NOAA are planning capacity building, improved data collection networks, to expand the TsunamiReady Program to some Caribbean and by introducing new and more robust technologies, islands. The CIMH has expressed an interest in helping to including modeling platforms implement this initiative to bolster long-term sustainability. • Determining the feasibility of integrating a tsunami Scaling up this integrated approach will also address warning system into this multi-hazard operational drought resilience. Ensuring early warning systems for environment. sustainable water resource management address flood Phased approach and drought risks, and actively involve the people and communities exposed, through expedited public education Phase 1 capitalizes on existing efforts, such as FFGS, and awareness of anticipated impacts, and efficient CIFI, SWFP, and WCRN. Phase 2 marks the initiation of dissemination of messages and warnings, will ensure a impact-based MHEWS, starting with an integrated flood constant state of preparedness and that early action is forecasting system linked to SWFP and climate forecast 44 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN models, and then building in IBF to provide an overall tool • Promote and advance CIFI, especially the storm surge that combines the different information tools used for each component for Caribbean countries facing high coastal EWS pillar, allowing them to be visualized as a whole. If risks, by developing risk maps, training, and educational considered advisable and feasible, Phase 3 would integrate materials via joint CIMH, CDEMA, WMO and CMO HQ geological triggers such as tsunamis. It is important to efforts. carefully examine the advantages and disadvantages of keeping these systems and programs separate or the • Promote and advance the inclusion of CIFI in the extent to which they can usefully be integrated, with the Caribbean Multi-hazard Operational Plan (SI7). final decision taken by impact-based MHEWS stakeholders • Develop a strategy to link or couple the SLOSH model in the region. or similar models with a hydrologic or hydraulic Phase 1 and 2 approach and main tasks modeling system to improve the accuracy of predicting coastal inundation. NOAA NHC runs the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model34 using bathymetry data, the • Link CIFI implementation to IBF through the Caribbean same data used for tsunami models. SLOSH-generated WCRN Program, and create a regional plan for risk maps can be stored on a computer and selected by adoption by CDEMA, CIMH, and CMO HQ as a medium- forecasters using the latest NHC hurricane forecast track. term goal. It is also possible to use other platforms that can support similar actions—such as the Delft3D FM and Adcirc—to • Facilitate linkage of the regional multi-sensor build the lookup tables, as these are built prior to the event. precipitation grid (SI3) to existing flood and flash flood Key tasks are to: EWS, water resources management, land-use planning and flood management organizations. • Develop a strategic plan that will integrate various WMO initiatives (SWFP, CIFI and FFGS) into an NMHS • Support the development of a concept of operations environment. for the Caribbean Multi-hazard Operational Plan (SI7) by developing an integrated flood SOP to standardize • Develop a prototype integrated flood roadmap— and coordinate flash flood, riverine flood, and coastal bringing together national and regional meteorologists, flood warnings and operations with NMHS. hydrologists, experts, and organizations including CIMH, CMO HQ, CDEMA, CWWA and WMO—and WMO has tentatively planned an impact-based MHEWS include CIFI in a multi-hazard environment, with project to link the three systems using interoperable tools these experts defining the linkages, cooperation, and and applications in a single workstation environment, an integrated architecture toward developing and develop prototype impact-based MHEWS SOPs, and include implementing an integrated flood forecast and warning linkages with the Caribbean Multi-hazard Operational Plan environment. (SI7) and IBF (SI1) in the Dominican Republic. • As a next step after developing the Integrated Flood Phase 1 and 2 actors Roadmap, develop a Drought Forecast Roadmap Organizations with a key implementing role in this strategic which follows the development of the Integrated Flood initiative include NOAA HQ international Office and NHC, system by adding a Drought Forecast capability. This WMO (especially Region IV Hurricane Committee and will be achieved by including coupling of seasonal Hydrology Committee), CIMH, CMO HQ, NMHS, EWISACTs, climate forecasting models to the hydrologic WMO IDMP, the Caribbean Global Water Partnership forecasting system to produce drought forecast (GWP-C),35 and the Hydrologic Research Center. products linked to Integrated Drought Management program. Phase 3 approach and main tasks A multidisciplinary team should consider the advantages 34 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/slosh.php. 35 https://www.gwp.org/en/GWP-Caribbean/ABOUT-GWP-C/. 45 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN and disadvantages of integrating the Caribbean Tsunami • WMO needs to establish standards, share best Warning System into the impact-based MHEWS. It may practices, and provide guidance to NMHS to develop also consider investigating the feasibility and suitability SOPs with their regional partners of including seismic and some biological hazards (such as sargassum) in a Caribbean impact-based MHEWS or • Following development of the Integrated Flood whether to cluster these under a longer-term separate Roadmap, develop a Drought Forecasting Roadmap impact-based MHEWS operational environment. The main as a later phase to eventually produce both impact- tasks are to: based flood and drought forecast products. EWISACTs should be included in the development of the drought • Investigate the feasibility and benefits of linking tsunami forecasting Roadmap. or geological warning systems into the regional impact- based MHEWS hydromet operational environment • UNESCO-IOC—specifically the Caribbean Information Center—and UWI SRC will be key actors in determining • Establish a coordination mechanism between NOAA, the feasibility of integrating Tsunami warnings into the UNESCO-IOC, the UWI Seismic Research Centre (SRC), MHEWS in Phase 3. CDEMA, CIMH, WMO, and others to determine the way forward in linking the Caribbean Tsunami Warning • NOAA will play an important role through the NWS System to the hydromet impact-based MHEWS NCEP38, the NHC, and the Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program.39 • Promote the expanded implementation of a tsunami warning system through an IBF initiative such as the • Other national and regional institutions that provide TsunamiReady Program, which is to be expanded in the seismic information for their areas of responsibility will Caribbean. also play an important role. Phase 3 actors • CCCCCs will offer strategic support on building and providing access to regional topographical and WMO, UNESCO-IOC,36 UWI SRC,37 CMO HQ, CDEMA, CIMH, bathymetric data (including Lidar capability). REWSC, NOAA, academia, and operational experts must all be involved in assessing the desirability of integrating • Representatives of national gender bureaus and tsunami warnings into the regional hydromet operational vulnerable groups will need to be kept informed and environment. Specifically: consulted on the needs and contributions of gender and other vulnerable groups in the different phases. • It Is a recommendation of this roadmap that CMO HQ, CIMH, and CDEMA include adoption of CIFI in their • CARPHA collaborates with CIMH on public health regional strategies issues and should be approached for guidance around biological hazards. • There is a need to investigate the feasibility and suitability of including seismic related hazards or USAID BHA and NOAA NHC have agreed to expand CIFI considering a longer-term separate impact-based to more Caribbean Islands. Given the vulnerability of all MHEWS operational environment. Caribbean countries to coastal inundation, CIFI should be progressively implemented throughout the CARICOM region. • CIMH and NOAA/NHC should provide training on coastal flooding and should investigate building risk- based flood maps. 36 IOCARIBE (http://iocaribe.ioc-unesco.org/) is a regional subsidiary body of the UNESCO-IOC. As the IOC sub commission for the Caribbean and adjacent regions, it is responsible for promoting, developing, and coordinating IOC marine scientific research programs, ocean services, and related activities, including training, education, and mutual assistance in the area. 37 https://uwiseismic.com/. 38 https://www.weather.gov/ncep/. 39 https://www.weather.gov/ctwp/. 46 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN SI5. Integrating health impacts into the impact- health information, immobility, and mental illness may based MHEWS determine an individual’s level of heat risk (box 3.2). Rationale The CIMH-led EWISACTs Consortium leverages CARPHA expertise and co-develops, co-designs, and co-delivers The COVID-19 crisis and extreme weather events provide products that share climate information for the health sector important lessons in understanding risk and the need on a seasonal timescale. The Caribbean Health-Climatic for impact-based MHEWS. In the case of communicable Bulletin, jointly developed and disseminated by CARPHA, diseases, the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), and CIMH, need to understand the vulnerability of individuals, groups, helps the health sector manage climate risk by providing a communities, and societies to provide reliable, targeted Caribbean outlook for the upcoming quarter and advising guidance and warnings that respond to, among other on the human health implications of climate forecasts. things, the gendered impacts of pandemics.40 It has also Caribbean experts also participate in the WMO Study Group demonstrated the need to prepare for a reasonable worst- for Integrated Health Services, which works on the integration case scenario based on risk-informed advance planning of physical and social sciences. (Rogers et al. 2020b). Resources are needed to prepare the groundwork for this process. Countries are increasingly developing capacity to use ensemble forecasting methods for meteorological Excessive heat is a growing public health hazard, and phenomena, and apply probabilistic forecasting techniques to heatwaves are among the most dangerous natural hazards. warning systems, making them more reliable and extending But, lacking the spectacular and sudden violence of other the lead time within which they can take action to prevent or hazards, such as tropical cyclones or flash floods, they rarely reduce risks. Applying similar approaches to epidemiological receive adequate attention. With no universally accepted forecasts, countries are using multimodel ensemble definition, heatwaves are understood to be periods of techniques, which produce broader and more realistic unusually hot and dry or humid weather, usually with a possible trajectories of epidemics. Probabilistic forecasting discernible impact on human and natural systems. Due of complex cascading catastrophes remains a challenge to this lack of absolute universal value—such as a given but can be addressed using a variety of tools, including AI temperature—to define extreme heat, heatwaves are relative techniques. Many countries’ disaster management laws treat to the local climate. Demographic and socioeconomic epidemics or pandemics as disasters, so integrating them characteristics such as age (elderly or very young), pre- into the regional impact-based MHEWS is a rational approach existing disease, working in exposed environments, living to improve coordination, forecasting, warning, and response. alone, social isolation, homelessness, no access to heat– 40 According to the UN Secretary General, the pandemic has already reversed decades of limited and fragile progress on gender equality and women’s rights. This is due to the heavier socioeconomic effects that disasters, including pandemics, have on women and vulnerable groups, which increases existing inequalities. 47 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN BOX 3.2. GLOBAL HEATWAVES IN 2022 The 2022 heatwave in India and Pakistan was an extreme weather event affecting a large part of India’s northwest and Pakistan, resulting in the hottest March in India since 1901. Combined with a drought, several cities across India, including New Delhi, experienced maximum heatwave temperatures of 45°C, and Pakistan recorded 49.5°C. As of May 9, at least 90 people had died from heat across both countries. In the United States, daily temperature records were set or equaled in at least 16 cities in June, according to the NWS. Phoenix, the country’s hottest city, recorded 44°C, and the temperature there did not drop below 27°C for two weeks. The impact of heat is cumulative, and the human body only begins to recover when temperatures drop below 27°C. According to the US Environmental Protection Agency, the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves have been rising steadily over the past 50 years. Persistent heatwaves affected parts of Europe in June, July, and August, causing wildfires, evacuations, and heat-related deaths. The highest recorded temperature (47°C) was in Portugal, where 1,063 excess heat-related deaths had been recorded by July 18. In other parts of Europe, temperatures of 40–43°C were recorded throughout June, with the most severe temperature anomalies in: • France, where Météo-France activated a red alert in 12 departments and an orange alert in another 25, with more than 17,000 hectares estimated to be burnt by wildfires, causing more than 24,000 people to be evacuated • United Kingdom, where temperatures surpassed 40°C and the UK Met Office issued its first ever red extreme heat warning • Germany, where temperatures reached 39.2°C and there were 1,636 probable heat-related deaths • Italy, where the number of wildfires tripled the historical average and Rome temperatures reached 40.8°C • Spain, which recorded temperatures above 40°C at 47 stations in the Spanish meteorological agency’s observation network • Switzerland, where MeteoSwiss activated orange and yellow alerts for heatwaves in most of the country, with maximum temperatures reaching 32–37°C • Ireland, where temperature records for July were broken when 33°C was reported in Dublin. Combining epidemiological surveillance with hydromet dialogue in the REWSC, and research with CIMH and the forecasting also makes it possible to predict water- and EWISACTs Consortium.41 This includes significant work on vector-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue, and mosquito-borne disease risk,42 while examples national- cholera. For example, Pasetto et al. 2018 use a near real- level efforts include developing Climate and Health Country time cholera prediction model based on rainfall forecasts Profiles for Dominica and Grenada.43 to identify hotspots of risk following Hurricane Matthew in Haiti. The Red Cross, in dialogue with CARPHA and CIMH Objective and working with the NMHS and ministries of health in This initiative aims to advance national guidelines for Barbados and Guyana, has piloted an IBF methodology using climate and health information to improve health risk for anticipating the risk of dengue outbreak and defining preparedness and will provide benefits across society by: triggers for preventive early action. expanding impact-based MHEWS —originally developed for weather- and climate-related hazards—to encompass public A renewed effort to include the health sector in impact- health risks; gaining valuable insight in risk communication based MHEWS is important to effectively streamline methodologies and approaches; and adopting impact- disaster management response. Linking hazards and their based MHEWS as a common, understandable, and trusted impacts motivates a coordinated approach. CARPHA has approach for regional health hazards, to be used as a basic established such an approach with the PAHO, through element of all national DRM systems. Achieving this will strong operational collaboration with CDEMA, policy 41 https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/ewisacts/. 42 https://www.paho.org/en/documents/caribbean-mosquito-awareness-week-2017-infographic-what-you-need-know-about-aedes-aegypti. 43 https://reliefweb.int/report/dominica/health-and-climate-change-country-profile-2020-dominica and https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/ WHO-HEP-ECH-CCH-20.01.05. 48 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN require a common framework for coping with complex responder training; guidance on heat risk governance; disasters to help authorities understand the full spectrum roles and responsibilities for implementing strategies; of secondary and tertiary effects of hazards, and therefore advice on longer-term strategies for reducing heat how best to provide more targeted warning, risk reduction, risk, such as climate-sensitive building, urban design preparedness, and response services. and town planning; and monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of interventions and how to improve them Approach To bridge the gap between forecast and warning • Promote dialogue among key actors to progressively apply IBF for managing additional health risks, such as information, and effective impact-minimizing actions, cholera and dust. countries need to take an all-encompassing approach to observe, detect, model, and predict risks and the potential Actors cascade of multiple hazards through to impacts. Tackling A regional working group led by CARPHA in collaboration this problem through a multidisciplinary approach will with CIMH, CDEMA, CCCCCs, the UWI, and IFRC-Caribbean, initially identify, understand, assess, and address health- will lead the main tasks. This initiative will build on health- related risks that are linked to hydromet hazards. The related IBF research undertaken in the Caribbean. Given dengue prevention trigger methodology research begun that pandemics, tropical cyclones, tsunamis, heatwaves, in Barbados and Guyana44 will serve as a foundation for and droughts may pose health-related risks to multiple scaling up the method to other public health risks and countries simultaneously, cooperation with international other countries across the region. Building on the work of agencies such as PAHO and IFRC, and at the highest levels CIMH, priorities include developing a heat-health warning of government and industry is important to ensure tools system (HHWS) to alert decision makers and the general and materials are available and actions are appropriate. public to impending dangerous hot weather and developing Vulnerable groups and communities must also be included and implementing a heat-health action plan (HHAP), which in the risk assessment and communication processes, outlines a range of actions to reduce the negative health and action planning must consider the different groups in effects of hot weather extremes. society that are at risk. Main tasks • Develop and implement recommendations on setting up and sustainably financing national level health risk SI6. Air quality health impacts IBF models Rationale • Adapt and apply the IBF/Forecast-based Action Trigger A recent WHO report suggests that 99 percent of the global model for arboviral diseases early action planning with population breathes air that contains levels of pollutants— interested ministries of health and respective NMHS including particulate matter, carbon monoxide, ozone, • Develop an HHWS, based on CIMH seasonal forecasts nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide—that exceed WHO and the Caribbean Health-Climatic Bulletin, that will guideline limits.45 Low- and middle-income countries suffer determine heat-stress thresholds for action and provide from the highest exposures to these and other pollutants. a system of graded alerts/actions for communicating While air quality has markedly improved in certain to the general population or target groups about an high-income countries since the 1990s, it has generally impending period of heat and its intensity and to deteriorated in most low- and middle-income countries, government agencies about the possible severity of in step with large-scale urbanization and economic health impacts development. Many Caribbean islands are experiencing significant urban and economic development, which • Develop an HHAP that covers public education has led to changes in lifestyle, with increased vehicular and awareness raising about heat; stakeholder and transport and power consumption. 44 https://www.paho.org/en/dengue-prevention-and-control-barbados-and-eastern-caribbean-countries. 45 https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240034228. 49 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Exposure to air pollution causes millions of deaths and the these emerging risks requires environmental, economic, loss of healthy years of life. The WHO estimates that one and public health preventative measures, which need to in eight deaths worldwide in 2012—that is, approximately 7 include monitoring hydrogen sulfide levels. million persons—resulted from complications due to poor air quality.46 In 2015, the World Health Assembly adopted Global monitoring and observation networks for air quality a landmark resolution on air quality and health recognizing monitoring across the Caribbean space are quite limited. air pollution as a significant risk factor for persons with There is no systematic large-scale regional air quality noncommunicable diseases such as ischemic heart measurement networks and air quality regulations and disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, enforcement are lacking. Some islands—such as Puerto asthma, and cancer, and their resulting economic toll. Rico, Martinique, and Guadeloupe—continuously record and This represents a major concern for the Caribbean region, report national measurement networks. Others, including where a significant portion of the elderly and middle-aged Barbados, have started periodic recording, but there is an population suffers from noncommunicable diseases, and increasing demand for national air quality measurements there is a growing concern around the increasing number of that can feed into regional platforms. With the exception of children and young adults affected by these diseases. Guadeloupe48, in most cases, there are no EWS or air quality testing and monitoring associated with these events. A According to Cifuentes et al. (2005), exposure to particulate number of regional initiatives can however be enhanced to matter in 26 cities across the Caribbean and Latin America formulate a more structured approach to providing regional is more than twice as high as in the United States. The air quality alerts, involving the way the platforms are used, WHO has indicated that Americas subregion B, which their protocols, and how information is disseminated to includes the Caribbean, has 30 attributable deaths and 307 stakeholders and end users. disability-adjusted life years due to outdoor air pollution per 1,000 population, compared to 28 deaths and 200 disability- Objectives adjusted life years per 1,000 in Americas subregion A, The health challenges faced by Caribbean populations which includes Canada and the United States. that are exacerbated by exposure to poor air quality will not be mitigated in the near future. To reduce risk and Sahara dust is another emerging predictable threat. exposure, countries will need to progressively develop Although CIMH provides seasonal temperature outlooks and operationalize national and community air quality and dust and air quality forecasts for the region, there is a observation and early warning systems that effectively serious gap in public perceptions of these risks. While the communicate warnings to all at-risk communities and focus of the impacts of poor air quality is understandably persons. on human and animal health, air quality also impacts key sectors, including the region’s transition from fossil Approach fuels to renewable energy. High concentrations of Sahara Building on the expertise, products, and services provided dust reduce photovoltaic production and trap heat in the by regional institutions and global networks in the region, near surface, increasing power demand. The presence of strengthening the MHEWS will require investments in three aerosol gases and dust in the atmosphere also impacts strategic areas: wind turbines, depending on the mineralogy of the dust, and gases released from large masses of sargassum seaweed • Expanding observation and early warning networks, on beaches have had an adverse effect on near-coastal including examining urban air quality issues in major populations, the tourism and marine sectors.47 Addressing cities and rural air quality in specific locations 46 https://www.niehs.nih.gov/research/programs/geh/geh_newsletter/2014/4/articles/air_pollution_accounts_for_1_in_8_deaths_worldwide_ according_to_new_who_estimates.cfm. 47 Sargassum has been a cause for concern, due to its effect on marine life and tourism, but it also carries a potential risk of human airborne poisoning. Resiere et al. (2019) indicate that acute inhalation of hydrogen sulfide produced after 48 hours of decomposition may result in potentially fatal hypoxic cardiac, respiratory, and neurological failure, while chronic exposure may also produce neurological and cognitive impairments. Since 2018, a disturbing number of consultations and hospital admissions related to the effects of both acute and chronic exposure to hydrogen sulfide has been reported in the Caribbean. 48 http://www.gwadair.fr 50 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN • Strengthening numerical prediction systems to report on the noxious gases—including ammonia and hydrogen sulfide—generated by its decay.50 The aerosol • Building capacity across the NMHS, health, early warning system for sargassum is supported by environment, energy, and other sectors to support sargassum observation and predictions systems, and building and using new early warning products and the Centre for Resource Management and Environmental services. Studies at the University of the West Indies Cave Hill Campus issues a useful three-month Sub-regional Outlook Existing networks provide valuable baseline information Bulletin for the Eastern Caribbean,51 which informs that allows local authorities to determine how national-level communities of the likely onset and duration of impacts. activities contribute to changes in air quality at national level. Information from these networks may also provide These examples can help guide the development of air early warning information related to large-scale events quality networks that would serve all the Caribbean islands. that may be of concern, whether episodic, short-term Barbados, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Trinidad events such as Sahara dust or long-term events such as and Tobago are at relatively early stages of developing greenhouse gas concentrations. Some global observation and operationalizing national air quality monitoring and networks in the region include: early warning networks. Other air quality-alerting products include Sahara dust advisories for the health and energy • University of Miami Barbados Atmospheric Chemistry sectors. Daily health advisories, based on the CIMH Sahara Observatory, Ragged Point, Barbados https://baco. dust modeling platform, available satellite imagery, and rsmas.miami.edu/ MPLNET products from the limited number of stations • University of Bristol’s Advanced Global Atmospheric across the region, are sent to CARPHA and the PAHO Gases Experiment, Ragged Point, Barbados https:// while hazardous conditions persist. The energy sector agage.mit.edu/ advisory, also co-developed by CIMH with the CARICOM Regional Task Force on Climate-Resilient Energy Supplies, • NASA’s AErosol RObotic NETwork https://aeronet.gsfc. uses many of the same products as the health advisory nasa.gov/ as well as aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations and predictions. The advisory is shared with the Caribbean • NASA’s Micro-Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) https:// Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency mplnet.gsfc.nasa.gov/ (CCREEE) and utilities across the region. The WMO- • Barbados Cloud Observatory, Deebles Point, Barbados designated RCC for the Caribbean also provides a seasonal https://mpimet.mpg.de/en/barbadosstation1 air quality outlook. National air quality observation and monitoring networks Main tasks are emerging that address national and specific • Expand the air quality network in CMO member states communities’ needs. More mature networks are present and garner resources to sustain the network, including on Martinique, Guadeloupe and Puerto Rico, which have through a strategic plan to guide the development and the finances and capacity to sustain them. These measure sustainability of the network a range of air quality parameters, including PM10, PM2.5, ozone, nitrous oxide, and sulfur oxide (with the latter • Expand the Caribbean Centre for Climate and measured in Guadeloupe but not Martinique) and often Environmental Simulations’ (CCCES) computational update the information on these parameters online.49 With infrastructure to improve the resolution and timeliness the emergence of the significant beaching of sargassum of air quality prediction products, including volcanic, across the Caribbean, Martinique and Guadeloupe have Sahara dust, and local aerosol transport products, as implemented coastal community early warning systems required by communities. 49 For example, https://aqicn.org/city/france/martinique/sainte-luce/; https://aqicn.org/city/france/guadeloupe/st-de-baie-mahault. 50 http://www.gwadair.fr/images/H2S_NH3_Sargasses_GPE.pdf. 51 https://www.cavehill.uwi.edu/cermes/projects/sargassum/outlook-bulletin.aspx. 51 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN • Build capacity to help downstream users better effectiveness across the region, especially among the less integrate products and services into their activities. developed NMHS. While mechanisms for dealing with many individual hazards are already in place, developing a • Establish a subregional Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre system of systems to strengthen and streamline MHEWS for the Caribbean. helps capture hazard interactions and causal chains. A Caribbean multi-hazard operational plan will enable the Actors technical advantages of a regional approach to many CMIH will lead these activities in partnership with the common hazards and can help enhance the recognition of Caribbean Aerosol Health Network (CAHN), PAHO, joining forces to mitigate multihazard impacts, beginning CARPHA, EarthMedic, the Caribbean Electric Utility with severe hydromet and marine-related hazards that Services Corporation, CCREEE, the WMO’s Sand and Dust threaten the region. Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, the WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch, CDEMA, UWI, national The Caribbean WCRN Program provides a starting point, environment and health ministries, and OECS Secretariat’s anchored in the transition to IBF (supported by SI1), for Environmental Division. Other actors may include DRM developing an initial common operational plan for hydromet agencies that wish to support household and community- and marine-related hazards. For example, the Tropical level early action planning to ensure that people know Cyclone Operational Plan (TCOP) coordinates hurricane what to do and take appropriate action when warnings are monitoring and forecasting guidance products, available issued, or sectoral and private sector actors that wish to observing networks, rules, and criteria for warnings, as well support the integration of aerosol warning preparedness as backup arrangements, data communications systems, measures into BCP. CCCCCs and the Caribbean and a regional directory. Reviewed, discussed, updated, Development Bank (CDB) could help in garnering resources, and agreed annually by the heads of all the region’s especially if aerosols can be included in climate adaptation national meteorological services, TCOP also includes a financing for the region. three- to five-year vision of research and development, technical capacities, and training. For other hazards, similar CIMH’s Dust and Air Quality Forecasting Centre platform52 collaborative mechanisms provide guidance, technical provides forecasts of dust concentration, PM2.5 and PM10 knowledge, and advice to the region, including SWFP, CIFI, concentrations, AOD, and ozone53 for the Caribbean region and FFGS. UNESCO-IOC and the UWI SRC coordinate using the WRF-CHEM model. The energy sector will use regional tsunami warning and mitigation activities in the AOD as part of its planning early warning system. The Caribbean, with the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center serving Volcanic Hazards platform54 daily simulates the ash, tephra, as regional center. and sodium dioxide transport from three of the region’s 19 active volcanoes. During the April 2021 eruption of the Objective La Soufrière Volcano on St. Vincent, NMHS, NDMO, the This initiative aims to establish a regional multi-hazard health sector, and other actors used valuable air quality operational plan that integrates existing mechanisms information from the platform for their early warnings. for each hazard and is flexible, practical, and regularly reviewed and updated. Such a plan would leverage the collective regional strength to overcome individual national SI7. Toward a Caribbean multi-hazard weaknesses through regional coordination, collaboration, operational plan and harmonized national implementation. This will reduce the burden on national technical, academic, and financial Rationale agencies—including NHMSs, NDMOs, universities, and Countries must harness common approaches to different financing institutions—through standardized SOPs that hazards to increase efficiency, capacity, and cost- represent best practices in producing forecasts and 52 http://dafc.cimh.edu.bb/. The platform is sustained through CCCES located at CIMH. 53 Ozone is not shown on website, but is available. 54 http://dev2.cimh.edu.bb/volcano/src/#/. 52 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN warnings for different hazards and other approaches. and strengthening their national operational plans. This may include mapping relevant institutions, their Overall approach roles and responsibilities, and identifying pertinent Building on the Caribbean WCRN Program, this initiative actors, and identifying lead institutions that should take has two steps or phases. The first is expanding the TCOP responsibility for each hydromet and marine-related to a Caribbean multi-hazard operational plan that clusters hazard and the services they can provide. weather, water, and climate-related operational plans; and the second is integrating other hazard clusters into • Implement outreach or educational programs that multi-hazard operational plans. The plan will complement consider the specificity of the region and use examples the TCOP in time and scope by operating not only during of existing structures and mechanisms. Such outreach hurricane season but year-round and addressing all programs will help educate national and local disaster hydromet and marine-related hazards. managers, gender bureau workers, meteorologists, and hydrologists on the CHOP implications for their Phase 1 main tasks day-to-day operations, provide technical support, and • Develop the CHOP, under the leadership of CMO HQ work with them to gradually implement changes to and CIMH, who will identify and assemble a group of procedures to strengthen and streamline operations. key players for this task, including regional operational Based on the lessons learnt during Phase 1, the process centers working on the different hazards covered by can be iterated in next steps, to develop operational plans the operational plan, regional experts from institutions, for further hazard clusters (beyond hydromet phenomena), committees, NMHS, NDMOs, gender bureaus, and progressively build the overall Caribbean MHEWS academia, social scientists, and so on, who are mainly operational “plan of plans”. involved in hydromet risk management and specialize in the four EWS pillars (box 3.1). Actors • Draft a structured outline/skeleton CHOP, guided by National agencies will need to agree to the operational elements of other regional operational plans (such arrangements and codify these agreements in the multi- as TCOP and SWFP) and strategies, focusing on the hazard operational plans already established under highest-priority hazards in the subregion, to adapt and international frameworks and agreements under CARICOM, expand the principles, structure, and methodologies WMO, UNESCO-IOC, and others. For climate hazards, the of existing plans to the other hydromet hazards; EWISACTs consortium of sectoral agencies with CIMH this methodology will be progressively applied to all offers a coordination mechanism that already provides hazards. information and develops products and services for climate- sensitive sectors.55 • Educate and get input from national and local disaster managers, gender bureaus, sectoral stakeholders, meteorologists, and hydrologists on the operational SI8. Regional emergency alert system plan’s implications for their day-to-day operations, providing technical support and working with them Rationale to gradually implement changes to procedures as Although all Caribbean countries have mechanisms for necessary. Guide and support national institutions to disseminating alerts and warnings, these are generally far downscale the operational plan to national level with from optimal. And, given budgetary constraints, they may a view to expanding and strengthening their national not yet take full advantage of all available technologies. operational plans. There is limited use of newer technologies, including the Phase 2 main tasks Common Alerting Protocol (CAP), cell broadcast, and social media, and little understanding of how different genders • Guide and support national institutions to downscale and vulnerable groups receive, interpret, and react to alerts. the CHOP to national level with a view to expanding 55 https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/cimh-ewisacts-consortium-the-caribbeans-champions-for-climate-services-info/. 53 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Communication disruptions are also common during and in there are challenges with bringing providers on board and the aftermath of extreme events. a need for supporting legislation. While traditional media operations are covered by protocols in most Caribbean Effective communication of multi-hazard early warning countries, this is not the case for mobile communication. information is complex. EWS should consider different populations’ risks, needs, and vulnerabilities, and help In some parts of the world, alerting authorities use groups and individuals make appropriate decisions and emergency alert systems (EAS) to send warnings via a take anticipatory action. Resilient public warning tools variety of communications networks. A regional approach using multiple pathways—including traditional media, that takes advantage of economies of scale could social media, and mobile applications—are key to ensuring implement EAS to strengthen and streamline MHEWS in timely access to vital information for all. At national level, the Caribbean (Figure 3.4) FIGURE 3.4. REGIONAL EMERGENCY ALERT SYSTEM Alerting Alert aggregator / Alerting Target authorities gateway disseminators populations Regional, Alerts Telecommunications national formatted networks operators Internet as CAP and local Radio, TV, (Common cell phones, Alerting digital Protocol) billboards Public warning system (PWS) Disaster managers Authenticate Met office Standards directors compliance Alert routing Specific areas/ populations can be Health officers targeted Objective emergencies with timely, consistent, authoritative, and This initiative aims to implement an effective people- targeted end-to-end advisories and warnings. centered, impact-based, regional emergency alert Approach communication and dissemination system that prompts A well-defined and sustainable regional architecture for appropriate action by everyone, including all target emergency alerts would allow advisories and warnings groups. The envisaged EAS would permit regional and to be consistently and reliably communicated regionally, national authorities to reach the public before and during 54 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN nationally, and locally, depending on the emergency. • Assess CAP-based communication systems to This will strengthen and streamline the dissemination of evaluate options that could be deployed as a regional risk information and warnings, using the best available integrated alert and warning system to best address technology without locking into today’s technology. A the interface between scientific alerting protocols and regional multi-hazard operational plan (SI7) will need to their dissemination or communication to targeted reflect the EAS architecture; and since communication populations. channels and technologies keep changing and evolving, the REWSC will need to clarify who is responsible for regularly • Train all regional, national, and local EAS users in the updating the plan. process and protocols to issue timely, consistent, authoritative, end-to-end advisory and warning This EAS can be based on the CAP, a standard data format messages using the system, to ensure that messaging for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between is designed and delivered in ways that respond to the alerting technologies. CAP allows a warning message needs of women, men, and vulnerable groups and is to be consistently disseminated simultaneously over effectively reaching and triggering appropriate action many warning systems to multiple applications—such as by all people and sectors.56 Google public alerts and cell broadcast—to reach agencies, authorities, and/or the general public, in anticipation of and • Define platform operations and maintenance, conduct throughout emergencies. tests and exercises, and keep pace with emerging technologies. Main tasks Actors • Develop a general design of regional EAS architecture and carry out a feasibility study for implementing The network of national-level implementing actors a regional wireless EAS that emphasizes sending for this initiative includes national and local disaster warning and alert messages to cell phones users. management agencies and the Red Cross; scientific and technical agencies; health, military, and civil authorities; • Develop and agree on institutional and policy telecommunication organizations (national regulators, arrangements at regional, national, and local satellite and mobile-cellular network operators); gender levels; ensure integration of the EAS as part of the bureaus; and media organizations. At the regional level, Caribbean Multi-hazard Operational Plan (SI7) and agencies such as CDEMA, CIMH, and the Caribbean review CDEMA’s Model National MHEWS Policy and Telecommunication Union have an important role Adaptation Guide to ensure it supports regional EAS to play, closely collaborating with national and local harmonization. governments in those initiatives that could benefit from regional implementation. For example, CDEMA and CIMH • Establish strong partnerships to supply and deliver could focus on improving the EAS while the Caribbean specified warning services, based on documented Telecommunication Union establishes performance agreements, between alert issuers (NMHS, NDMOs, standards, procedures, and testing requirements for EAS and so on) and alert disseminators, including TV and participants. As operators of most of the communication radio broadcasters, mobile wireless operators, and channels—from broadcast media to mobile networks and internet service providers. satellites—private sector actors are key for the success of this initiative. 56 Alerting and messaging must consider the different situations in which women and men live. For example, women often have responsibility for young, elderly, and disabled family members, which can heavily influence their ability to react to standard alerts, while directing people to shelters that do not have the necessary protection measures in place heavily disrupts the quality of the entire MHEWS for most of its end users (women and children). 55 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN SI9. Community-based action planning Approach The approach for implementing this community-driven Rationale strategic initiative is in the context of a broader community- EWS has traditionally focused on disseminating based resilience-building framework and the regional information and warnings to effectively reach the last mile. resilience pathway with which the roadmap is aligned. But, as well as informing all people, including vulnerable Regional knowledge-sharing among IBF-implementing groups, of risks that can be anticipated, MHEWS must partners involved in the other strategic initiatives will use IBF (figure 3.2) to inform anticipatory action to protect help inform and strengthen the development of national people, assets, infrastructure, and livelihoods. Inclusive partnerships or alliances to guide and support systematic and appropriate risk-informed planning and action can community engagement in applying IBF. To mobilize all only happen with appropriate support for participatory communities to develop early action capacity, national processes. These include public awareness and education, partners must commit and agree on their respective training and capacity building, forecast-based SOPs, drills roles. To establish community-based early warning early and exercises. Community-based early warning early action, they must also engage community stakeholders in action, a proven method for applying IBF at the community participatory risk mapping and anticipatory action planning level, requires risk knowledge that is inclusive of gender that includes setting and implementing thresholds and and vulnerable groups; warnings that integrate impacts; evaluating effectiveness after action to inform regular and communications that are designed to reach and updating, based on evolving risk information and learning. be actionable by all at-risk target groups. It also defines Early action plans may include risk reduction measures thresholds and triggers for pre-planned early action, and aimed at preventing and mitigating anticipated impacts to identifying sources of support for implementing community people, property, and livelihoods, alongside preparedness action plans, which can include the rapid release of funds measures to accelerate the response once a hazard hits. necessary to carry them out.57 All four EWS pillars need to work together seamlessly (figure 3.1), as failure in one or a Main tasks lack of coordination across pillars can prevent communities from fully benefitting from IBF. As such, key national actors’ • Form partnerships under the umbrella of NDMOs with commitment to progressively build anticipatory action national implementing partners, including but not capacity for warnings in all communities is essential. limited to NMHS and the Red Cross, to outline a joint national approach for systematically and progressively Objective developing community-based early warning early This initiative aims to strengthen community resilience and action plans in all communities. respond to the needs of all people by establishing national • Establish agreements for collecting, analyzing, and processes for systematically applying IBF to advance publishing sex, age, and disability-disaggregated data community-based early warning early action planning in risk mapping, damage, and needs assessments and implementation. Raising awareness of the impact of hazards at community level, improving understanding • Collaborate and coordinate to establish the learning and advocacy for IBF to better inform risk reduction and cycle of after-action assessments and feedback loops preparedness planning, and inclusive engagement to to communicate needs and gaps to enable ongoing change community perceptions and reactions to alerts participatory improvement of the effectiveness of and trigger appropriate anticipatory action are all key community-based action plans results. The overarching outcome is to launch inclusive and effective community-based early warning early action • Systematically apply the IBF methodology in initial test learning-by-doing processes so that all communities in case communities and then rolling out the validated each country fully benefit from the availability of continually approach to other communities to progressively improving impact-based MHEWS. establish inclusive, risk-informed, and community-based early warning early action planning in all communities. 57 The programming of financing necessary to carry out an anticipatory action plan, with the release of funds triggered by reaching a predefined risk forecast threshold, is referred to as forecast-based financing. 56 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN • Ensure community-based hazard, exposure, and SI10. Sectoral impact-based MHEWS, the vulnerability assessments are inclusive of gender, private sector, and BCP vulnerable groups, and MSMEs, using NDMO and NMHS information and participatory tools such Rationale as the IFRC’s Enhanced Vulnerability and Capacity Engaging the private sector to co-develop and co-deliver Assessment58 and the CDEMA Caribbean Community products that meet their needs is key to an effective Risk information tool. impact-based MHEWS. The region’s vulnerable MSME sector faces two primary challenges, around data • Ensure early action plans systematically include availability and access, and awareness of the importance of community knowledge in both planning and after- business continuity and anticipatory action planning. action effectiveness evaluations, using tools such as the knowledge, attitudes and practices surveys used by Private sector groups are recognizing that they benefit the Red Cross Caribbean Disaster Risk Management from better EWS as business flourishes when society is and many others in the region.59 able to bounce back after experiencing impacts of hazards. Businesses are also seeking information about future • Create templates for impact-based MHEWS messaging climate for long-term strategic planning and engaging that are tailored to the different needs of women, men, the private sector in developing products that meet their and people with disabilities, and reflect the different needs is key to effective MHIEWS. For example, the CMO ways in which these groups process, interpret, and HQ provided information to the American Chamber of respond to information, in coordination with SI8 Commerce in Trinidad and Tobago that included Caribbean (regional emergency alert system). climate projections (the results of research published by the • Address the need for reliable, adequate, and timely UWI Climate Studies Group at Mona) and connected them financing linked to forecast triggers to ensure timely with the local meteorological service, where they obtained implementation, and developing national and local climatological rainfall data. For hydromet hazards, efforts capacity to plan, manage, and advocate for early to engage with the private sector in the Caribbean align warning early action plan budgeting. This task may with the WMO’s 2019 Geneva Declaration on public-private benefit from collaboration with SI10 (sectoral impact- engagement. based MHEWS, the private sector, and BCP). Private sector actors need access to hydromet data and warnings that they can readily use. And, as highlighted by Actors the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, health-related data must NDMOs and their national partners will primarily drive IBF also be incorporated into business continuity plans (BCPs). implementation by systematically rolling out risk-informed, Enhancing IBF throughout the region can help identify the community-based early action planning. The network of impact of hazards on specific sites and ecosystems at implementing actors includes NMHS, national Red Cross a local level. Information on hazards—and the exposure Societies, the IFRC, UN agencies including UNDRR, UNDP, and vulnerability of people and infrastructure to hazard the World Food Programme (WFP), OCHA, UN Environment impacts—can help inform business decisions around and others, as well as academia, gender bureaus, disability building location and design, asset storage, and employee experts, communities, local businesses, and the wider safety. Engaging gender, youth, and vulnerable groups private sector. This will require supportive guidance and in the MSME sector is also essential for measuring the regional cooperation from CMO HQ, CIMH, CDEMA, its effectiveness of early warning information and early action Regional Gender Working Group, and the REWSC to ensure plans. Additionally, bringing enhanced and timely MHEWS they share the tools and knowledge they develop, so information to Caribbean MSMEs can help business progress continues to scale up over time. owners take action—for example, by informing critical supply chain providers or moving assets, products, and machinery—avoiding losses and speeding up both recovery 58 https://www.ifrcvca.org. 59 https://www.cadrim.org/kap-webinar-series. 57 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN and a return to normal operation with less disruption. To be transformative, BCP practices must also consider gender. Disaggregating data must therefore become the Expanding awareness of the importance of BCPs and norm, to understand the exposure and vulnerability of anticipatory action planning is also vital. Many private women-headed MSMEs and build BCP capacity through sector actors in the Caribbean have little to no access training and networking. to risk reduction and business continuity training or information. This is especially so for MSMEs, due to a lack Approach of institutions offering accessible information and services Regional private sector organizations such as the and a lack of people trained to lead such workshops. But a CARICHAM and the UNDRR ARISE network can play a growing regional and international body of knowledge and leading role in strengthening the private sector’s role as community of practitioners is willing to share good practice contributors to and beneficiaries of tailored impact-based and lessons learned with private sector networks. One of MHEWS for each sector. They can also lead in developing these is the UNDRR ARISE network, which promotes private BCP training, workshops, and expertise that is gender sector resilience through BCP courses and workshops. transformative and accessible to all, including vulnerable It is important to note that, although women are groups and MSMEs. overrepresented in informal and vulnerable MSMEs and in the economic sectors that are most vulnerable to disasters, Main tasks standard BCP tends not to address the structural gender • Use an IBF approach to design impact-based MHEWS issues of business continuity, nor the practical realities of warnings that respond to the needs of different parts women-owned MSMEs. of the private sector, to enhance understanding of the impacts of extreme events on local economic assets, Disseminating and articulating messaging that is tailored the built environment, and vulnerable livelihoods; and to sectoral risks is vital for informing actions that MSMEs use suitable dissemination mechanisms to ensure all can take to increase their resilience to multi-hazard private sector actors receive the information they need threats. Although dialogue between information producers to prepare in a timely fashion and consumers in most Caribbean countries is limited, particularly in the MSME sector, examples of such dialogue • Strengthen private sector resilience, preparedness, are promising and need to be further supported. For and response capacity by raising awareness and example, when the EWISACTs consortium shares early teaching about the impacts of hazards, and addressing warning information with sectors, businesses operating barriers to training within the more vulnerable MSME in those sectors benefit, and the CIMH shares information and economic sectors, considering intersections with about a major Sahara dust threat directly with the energy vulnerable groups, such as gender and youth utilities through its sectoral information bulletins. CIMH and the energy sector are also supporting integrated resource • Create a broader culture of business resilience and resilience planning. based on developing BCP strategies by engaging larger enterprises and institutions, including regional Objective networks, to support MSMEs; ensure this support considers the realities of women-owned businesses This initiative aims to more actively engage stakeholders and provides strengthened support for women-led from across the private sector and mitigate the loss of businesses, as large, traditional business models tend critical physical assets and disruptions in vulnerable not to include women´s realities. supply chains and business services. Larger regional and international companies have long histories of sharing multi-hazard BCPs and practices more widely. As they have Actors the financial capacity to purchase the IBF data they need Organizations in the region with a key implementing to formulate multi-hazard BCPs from international weather role in this strategic initiative include the UNDRR ARISE companies, many are discovering new pathways that network, which raises awareness and co-sponsors training can strengthen two-way impact-based MHEWS data and on BCP, and the CARICHAM, which unifies 16 chambers information flow between the public and private sectors. of commerce in the region. Both play important roles in 58 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN advocating and facilitating training for business continuity Other important organizations include CARPHA, media and public-private partnerships. CIMH is already making broadcasting networks, mobile communications providers, useful contributions to engaging the private sector social media companies, private sector alert companies, through the sectoral EWISACTs consortium. National weather enterprises, key ministries—including tourism, chambers of commerce, which provide training and transportation, agriculture, maritime affairs, and blue have designated disaster risk reduction focal points, and economy—and local governments. Gender bureau and small business associations, which bring much-needed social or economic scientist involvement will help elaborate resilience and BCP exposure to MSMEs, are also key. and integrate a gender-transformative approach. 59 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN 4 SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF IMPROVED EWS 60 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN The Caribbean region’s climate is its greatest magnet The economics of hydromet services and EWS is driven by and economic generator, especially for the tourism and the benefits derived primarily through improved DRM, and transportation sectors. But its severe weather events and often also the optimized productivity of weather-sensitive geophysical hazards present the region’s greatest source economic sectors. Given the Caribbean context, this of intensive and extensive risk of loss. The Caribbean ranks assessment includes DRM and water resource sectoral among the top 10 most disaster-prone areas in the world considerations, such as agriculture, energy, and water when counting disasters per land area or population (CRED supply. At the same time, there are several complexities 2019; Eckstein, Hutflis and Winges 2019). Between 2006 and uncertainties inherent in quantifying DRM that are and 2017, natural disasters cost the region an estimated compounded by climate change and other intangibles $143.4 billion, while total weather-related economic losses and—of particular importance for extreme events—in have been increasing since 2004, spiking to $86 billion discounting the cost of future impacts. (purchasing power parity) in 2017.60 A country’s GDP never experiences a rapid or immediate recovery. Recuperation often takes around 20 years, The challenges of quantifying benefits without considering subsequent impacts of events that Two peculiarities specific to DRM must be considered in an take place in this time, such as the compounding and economic assessment of MHEWS. First, disasters involve cascading effects of the COVID-19 crisis and the 2021 considerable uncertainties. They are impossible to predict volcanic eruption on St. Vincent. The relative consequences with great accuracy, and they cause complex and often of weather extremes and other crises depend on a cascading disruptions to economic and social systems. country’s income, extent of achieved development, and This assessment therefore uses a tailored economic population growth. With per capita economic losses modeling approach and specific quantitative technique that decreasing 52 percent between the Caribbean countries builds on probability theory. with the lowest and highest per capita GDP, those with lower incomes are more vulnerable to weather extremes Second, there is a discrepancy between financial and and often tend to have lower adaptive capacity. This adds economic benefits. DRM investments rarely yield tangible a dimension of vulnerability to countries that already face (financial) cash flows, as benefits usually consist of avoided many other challenges. (economic) damages. Benefits can therefore be difficult to visualize and quantify, as the ultimate benefit is that nothing While the DRM toolbox consists of many tools and happens during a hazardous event. However, by comparing approaches, EWS remains a key component in the a baseline (the status quo) to the situation where Caribbean, which is prone to extreme events such as investments have been implemented and with assumptions Category 5 hurricanes. The main benefits include reduced on their effectiveness, it is possible to estimate potential mortality, morbidity, property damage, and assistance and avoided losses. emergency costs. When investments aim primarily to improve the provision This chapter provides an overview of a cost-benefit analysis of information, such as early warning, it is necessary to (CBA) comparing the expected socioeconomic benefits quantify the value of delivered information needs, based to the costs that will be incurred. This CBA will help justify on the decision making and actions it informs and enables. proposed public investments, such as the initiatives and And while the accuracy and timeliness of delivered activities presented in this roadmap. Applying a CBA to information determine how useful it is for improved investments to modernize hydromet services and exploring decision making and response, so does stakeholder different methodologies (and challenges) for quantifying capacity to interpret and act on the information. Despite benefits and costs related to weather, climate, and water these challenges, a growing body of expertise regards the information services, WMO et al. (2015) find that investing economics of hydromet services and EWS (box 4.1). $1 in hydromet services and EWS generally results in at least $3 in socioeconomic benefits (a 3:1 benefit/cost ratio). 60 https://germanwatch.org/en/cri. 61 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN BOX 4.1. DRM ECONOMICS IN DEVELOPMENT Though a somewhat technical niche, the economics of hydromet services and EWS has a community of practice of its own. However, it is not always applied in development projects, for two reasons. First, larger DRM projects often entail other structural components that yield enough benefits to achieve cost-effectiveness without needing to consider softer components such as EWS. And second, the lack of standardized practice for assessing the value of softer components such as EWS—usually based on behavioral change—requires assumptions that may be difficult to inform and/or justify and models that are highly sensitive to input variations. On the latter point, the limited costs of hydromet forecasting and EWS (compared to infrastructure investments) and their potentially high benefits can yield what appear to be unrealistic results, such as internal rates of return over 100 percent, which are sometimes difficult to explain and may be challenged. Producing benefits • How much extra lead time (box 4.2) and increased information quality will the improved EWS provide? The proposed investments in modernizing hydromet Quality considers forecast reliability, accuracy, services and EWS in the Caribbean will pursue broad uncertainty, and resolution, its targeting, and the improvements to institutional capacities, regional efficiency with which it is communicated to vulnerable collaboration, and information flow and use. But a critical stakeholders. Benefits are expected to rise with and more quantifiable goal is to improve the resolution, increases in lead time and information quality. timeliness, and accuracy of warnings and information delivered to the relevant authorities and the public, allowing • How can countries convert lead time and quality them to pursue timely precautionary protective measures improvements into economic benefits? A marginal to save lives and assets. gain of time and quality can yield variable amounts of avoided damages, depending on the efficiency of use of This economic analysis is therefore structured around two the delivered information. main questions relating to early warning and its use: BOX 4.2. KEY TIME CONCEPTS RELEVANT TO THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF HYDROMET SERVICES AND EWS Maximum warning time is the time lag between a forecast and the moment when a variable representing the hazard exceeds a predefined threshold when the hazard is considered to become dangerous—for example, when water breaks the riverbanks and starts flooding, when a cyclone hits the coastline, and so on. Lead time is the time between the moment a potential threat is identified and when it occurs, minus the decision and notification time. The forecast lead time is the sum of the lead time and the time for decision making and communication—that is, the lag time between the moment the threat is recognized and the moment where the threshold is exceeded. The lead time is a portion of the maximum warning time during which anticipatory action can take place. The maximum warning time is therefore the sum of the time for observation and data analysis (forecasting), decision making— for example, to issue a warning or communicate a lower risk level though a flood watch notice—communication to all relevant stakeholders, including local representatives and the general population, and the lead time, which ends when the hazard threshold is exceeded. 62 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Whether information produces benefits relates to the extent benefits of certain hazards. For example, hurricanes to which decisions and actions based on the information can be forecast with 1–3 days’ notice, reducing reduce the exposure and vulnerability of people and their exposure and vulnerability. assets. Primary data collection to help quantify this is often unavailable, so secondary data, expert judgement, and • The scope of damages is limited to direct impacts of transfer from studies and assessments in other locations disasters—that is, destruction of assets and loss of and contexts are often employed. life. Indirect, compounding, and cascading impacts of disasters, such as those resulting from disruption The concepts introduced above are valid for the three to economic activities, social services, connectivity, models employed in this study, reflecting potential to ecosystem services, and so on, are not considered. reduce asset damage, reduce fatalities, and improve the economic productivity of weather-sensitive sectors. In all • To aggregate the benefits of all models, fatalities are three models, the impacts of improved hydromet services converted into economic values using assumptions and EWS are quantified as the difference between a for missed economic productivity rather than the baseline (status quo) and the with-investments scenario. statistical value of life, which would yield higher values but is controversial.61 Reflecting uncertainty It is important to acknowledge that any model involves a trade-off. It should ideally remain simple and robust, yet not TABLE 4.1. DAMAGES AND CASUALTIES IN THE CARIBBEAN, BY DISASTER TYPE, 2000–22 overlook any key features of the phenomenon it aims to represent. Because DRM involves high levels of complexity and uncertainty, it is necessary to strike the right balance Hazard Total deaths Total damages ($) between model accuracy and the capacity to obtain and/ Hydrological or generate reliable input data. This assessment uses two Flash flood 98 1 million guiding principles for this: a conservative estimate of the Riverine flood 3,061 819 million benefits, and probabilistic modeling. Other 73 10 million Flood total 3,232 830 million Using conservative assumptions and estimates of the benefits enhances the assessment’s robustness and Landslide/ 2 not available confidence in the results. The cost-efficiency of hydromet mudslide service and EWS investments are considered more valid Hydrological total 3,234 830 million when assessments avoid overly optimistic estimates of Meteorological benefits. The main conservative assumptions used in the Convective storm 6 not available assessment are: Tropical cyclone 5,045 21.65 billion • The model does not consider all the hazards that could Other 26 not available be impacted by the investments. Table 4.1 lists the Meteorological 5,077 21.65 billion hazards used to compute the baseline of damages total and fatalities. It does not include volcanic activities, Total 8,311 22.48 billion droughts, earthquakes, coral bleaching, or pandemics. Source: EM-DAT database, maintained by the Centre for Research on • The model assumes that even in the best-case the Epidemiology of Disasters at the Université Catholique de Louvain www.emdat.be scenario, the shortest maximum lead time–namely Note: The countries included in this aggregate are the same as those that for flash floods (30 minutes)—is delivered for all shown in table 4.2. hazards, a strict limitation that significantly reduces the 61 From a social perspective, assigning monetary value to a life is questionable, particularly because the standard approach also reflects wealth. 63 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN As table 4.1 clearly shows, the EM-DAT database has To further reflect the many uncertainties stemming from several known shortcomings, particularly that hazard the complexity and variety of hazard types and the range subcategories tend to not be reported or labelled of socioeconomic contexts within and across Caribbean consistently and damages are often not reported in a countries—urban versus rural, rich versus poor—the quantified manner. The EM-DAT is therefore considered assessment uses a probabilistic approach. In probabilistic to under-report disaster damages, contributing to the modeling, inputs are represented not by deterministic conservative nature of this assessment. Lacking any more scenarios, but by probability distributions, which reflect detailed regional data, it has been used with full recognition their specific uncertainties (box 4.3). of its shortcomings. BOX 4.3. PROBABILISTIC MODELING IN A NUTSHELL Probabilistic modeling consists of running thousands of iterations of a given (deterministic) model across all ranges of possible values of uncertain inputs. These inputs are represented as random variables, so their respective probability distributions account for information gaps (uncertainties). This in turn yields a large array of model results, which are ordered to build a probability distribution of the results, thus also reflecting output uncertainty. This process, known as a Monte Carlo simulation, allows for more refined risk analysis than deterministic models. This should not be confused with uncertainty on the hazards themselves. This assessment does not use a catalogue of many events from which to draw randomly. Instead, it uses the most common and robust approach of average annual losses (AAL). Reducing disaster losses data for the target countries of the proposed investments, a regional AAL of $1 billion62 is computed. Table 4.2 and As the baseline for current disaster losses, AAL are figure 4.1 show the key data from EM-DAT. estimated using the EM-DAT database. Using 2000–21 FIGURE 4.1. DISASTER-RELATED FATALITIES AND DAMAGES IN THE CARIBBEAN, 2000–2021 8 Total deaths Total damages ($, billions) 6000 7 5000 6 Damages ($, billions) 4000 5 Deaths 4 3000 3 2000 2 1000 1 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2021 Year Source: EM-DAT database www.emdat.be 62 This average was computed from 2000 onwards. Though possible, longer time horizons may not be the wisest choice, as there is an acknowledged recording bias in the EM-DAT database, which is an issue for analyzing time series. 64 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN greater level of exposure and wealth, as well as likely TABLE 4.2. DISASTER-RELATED FATALITIES better post-disaster loss accounting and tracking systems AND DAMAGES IN THE CARIBBEAN BY in these countries. Per capita GDP in these countries COUNTRY, 2000–21 is $35,000 and $86,000 respectively, compared to the Total Total CARICOM average of just under $5,000, and Haiti’s, which Country deaths damages ($) is $1,300. Anguilla 4 200 million A large part of the damage was caused by a few extreme Antigua and Barbuda 1 260 million events, including Hurricanes Dorian (2019) and Frances Bahamas, The 404 6.03 billion (2004) in The Bahamas, and Ivan (2004) in the Cayman Islands. Although global disaster databases such as EM- Barbados 2 5 million DAT do not generally capture frequent floods with lower Belize 55 550 million damages well, these tend to contribute significantly to overall average damages. So, over time, more frequent Bermuda 4 300 million events with limited damages have more average annual British Virgin Islands 9 3 billion impact than very harmful but rare events. This reporting Cayman Islands 2 3.5 billion bias is adjusted using a conservative estimate of a multiplier ranging between 1.5 and 2.3.63 Dominica 96 1.96 billion Grenada 39 890 million The model assumes an annual economic growth rate of 4 percent (World Bank 2021)64 on a GDP base of about $100 Guyana 34 630 million billion.65 This results in a baseline AAL of 1.96 percent of Haiti 7,539 2.36 billion GDP, which is within the expected range for the Caribbean. Jamaica 71 1.54 billion Avoided damages St. Kitts and Nevis 20 million St. Lucia 22 75 million The assessment uses the Flood Hazard Research Center (FHRC) model (Parker et al. 2009; Carsell, Pingel and Ford St. Vincent and the 17 160 million 2004) to estimate the level of potential damage reduction Grenadines delivered by the proposed investments. The FHRC model Suriname 5 not available considers the maximum flood damages avoided with a fully Trinidad and Tobago 3 5 million effective EWS for a given lead time—that is, the reliability of forecasts, the percentage of exposed households able to Turks and Caicos 4 1 billion respond,66 the percentage of households that will respond, Total 8,311 22.48 billion and the percentage that will respond effectively. Source: EM-DAT database www.emdat.be These factors are combined to reflect a percentage reduction of the baseline damage, which in this case is the AAL. The reduction of damage also varies with lead time. Over 40 percent of the recorded total damages are Table 4.3 shows a summary of benchmarks found in the concentrated in The Bahamas and the Cayman Islands. But literature, as well as estimates from Caribbean hydromet rather than a variation of hazard levels, this reflects a much services and EWS experts. 63 Computations performed from expert judgement. This is consistent though slightly more conservative than 3.1 suggested in UNDRR (2019): “an analysis of records in 104 countries found that between 2005 and 2017, small and medium, localized and frequent disasters caused 68 percent of all economic losses”. See also https://www.preventionweb.net/understanding-disaster-risk/disaster-losses-and-statistics. 64 This is consistent with past trends. 65 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?end=2020&locations=S3-HT-VG-TC-BM-KY&start=2000. 66 Able to respond means being on site (assumptions are made about occupancy of vacation lodging), reachable through standard communication channels, and unlimited in ability to respond. 65 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN TABLE 4.3. BENCHMARKING FHRC MODEL INPUT VARIABLES Variable Literature Expert opinion min mode max min mode max Lead time (hours) 0 0.25 Maximum reduction in damages 4% 40% 80% 4% 10% 20% Forecast reliability 70% 25% 50% 50% Exposed households able to respond 55% 80% 20% 75% Households able to respond that do respond 75% 80% Households that respond effectively 70% 95% 25% Source: (Literature column) Pappenberger et al. 2015; Emerton et al. 2016; Carsell, Pingel and Ford 2004; Grant 2020 Note: Min, mode and max respectively denote the minimum, the most likely and the maximum value of each input variable. Table 4.4 shows the values used for the assessment, which value that could be saved, which itself is only 20 percent are input as probabilistic distributions to represent the of the total assets value. As such, the average value of possible ranges of each variable. The spread between the savings is only 8 percent of total value of at-risk assets. And literature and expert opinion for the maximum reduction because the model uses assumptions based on data from in damages due to early warning is quite significant. high-income countries where structural (non-moveable) Given the multiplicative Table 4.4 shows the values used assets have a higher relative value than the Caribbean, the for the assessment, which are input as probabilistic approach is again more conservative. distributions to represent the possible ranges of each While the probability distribution of lead time ranges from variable. The spread between the literature and expert 5 to 30 minutes, the average increase between the baseline opinion for the maximum reduction in damages due to and with-investments scenario is about 10 minutes. Based early warning is quite significant. Given the multiplicative on all the combined assumptions, the average effective nature of the FHRC model, this uncertainty is problematic response of the total population increases from 18 percent as it will directly impact the model results. As such, and for the baseline to 40 percent after investment; and the following the conservative approach, this variable is investments lead to average savings of 2.8 percent of AAL, capped at a relatively low level. The most likely (mode) which aligns with the lower range of values reported in the maximum reduction in damages of 40 percent for the with- global literature.67 investments scenario represents the portion of the total TABLE 4.4. FHRC MODEL INPUT VARIABLES Variable Baseline min mode max min mode max Lead time (hours) 0 0.083 0.167 0.083 0.25 0.5 Maximum reduction in damages 0 20% 33% 20% 40% 60% Forecast reliability 10% 25% 30% 30% 50% 60% Exposed households able to respond 20% 40% 75% 40% 75% 80% Households able to respond that do respond 25% 50% 75% 35% 70% 80% Households that respond effectively 70% 82.5% 95% 80% 90% 95% Note: Min, mode and max respectively denote the minimum, the most likely and the maximum value of each input variable. 67 For example, Hallegatte (2012) assumes that 10 percent savings of AAL is conservative. 66 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN The estimate of lives saved resulting from hydromet services and EWS is derived from the model discussed Avoided fatalities by Penning-Rowsell et al. (2005). This is based on floods As table 4.2 shows, most casualties occurred in Haiti. and considers the number of fatalities, flood depth, flood These occurred primarily during two major events in 2004: velocity, destructive objects (debris) carried by the flood, Hurricane Jeanne, which affected several areas, including river basin population, and vulnerability relating to age Artibonite, Centre, Northwest, and South; and a riverine and infirmity. It also uses somewhat subjective scores for flood affecting Belle Anse, Croix-Des-Bouquets, and Jacmel. EWS performance and local vulnerability. Assumptions These events are responsible for 65 percent of all recorded recognize that for the very rapid onset floods that dominate fatalities in the region, resulting in the distribution of the Caribbean context, maximum potential warning time FIGURE 4.2. DISTRIBUTION OF DISASTER-RELATED FATALITIES IN THE CARIBBEAN, 2000–2021 120 9,000 Number of events Number of fatalities Cumulative fatalities Number of fatalities Number of events 80 6,000 40 3,000 0 0 0-5 6-25 26-125 126-625 626-3125 Fatality bins is extremely short. So, even the best improvements in fatalities for the entire region taking on a Pareto-like shape the resolution of forecasting and warning may not save (figure 4.2). The average annual number of fatalities is 378. many lives. It should also be noted that the issue under Due to its controversial nature, the assessment does consideration is the improvement or increase in lives not use the concept of the statistical value of life, using saved, not total lives saved. However, given that hurricane instead estimates of the missed economic productivity that warnings are available with a longer lead time, the death results from fatalities caused by disasters. The population- rate is likely attributable to people not receiving warnings, weighted GDP per capita of Caribbean countries is $4,900, not understanding them, or being unable or unwilling to with significant variance across the region. To transform move to a safe location. Based on these assumptions, it fatalities into economic values, the assessment uses a is estimated that the variation in EWS performance that fatality-weighted average, meaning the per capita GDP of investments can trigger could save 7–13 percent of lives. countries experiencing the most fatalities is weighted more, This translates into 300–600 lives saved, the economic resulting in a regional average fatality-weighted per capita valuation of which accounts for 14 percent of all estimated GDP of $3,100. economic benefits from improved DRM. 67 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Increased sectoral productivity spending now. This analysis applies a 5 percent discount rate, representing an understanding that future costs and In the Caribbean, agriculture produces about $7.7 billion in benefits are relatively important compared to the current GDP.68 This includes forestry and fishing, which generally situation, in keeping with concerns regarding climate do not benefit significantly from EWS, so the assessment change. assumes that 70 percent of total agricultural GDP is generated by crops69 and can benefit from improved hydromet forecasts. Although data on GDP produced by Costs energy and water supply are not readily available for the Thorough costing of all possible measures relevant to region, data from Jamaica70 suggest that these sectors EWS is a complex task and has not been performed for produce about 60 percent of agricultural GDP. The regional this assessment. The World Bank’s Disaster Vulnerability sectoral productivity expected to benefit from the proposed Reduction Project for St. Lucia cost $7 million and EWS investments is therefore about $12.4 billion. concentrated on addressing the biggest gaps identified in Kull et al. (2021) determined that, with improved decision a situational analysis of the country’s hydromet services. It making using hydromet forecasts, it is possible to reduce focused on critical components of the end-to-end MHEWS, global average annual crop yield variability of 7.5 percent by including: strengthening and automating the observation 20 percent. To avoid double-counting with potential benefits network by installing a weather radar; implementing a from saving sectoral assets captured under avoided common hydromet database and management system; damages, this is further reduced by 20 percent, resulting in installing new workstations with analytical/forecast/ a total benefit of 1.2 percent of crop productivity. The same visualization tools and software; installing a satellite global assessment also determined 5 percent savings download link; establishing numerical weather prediction for renewable energy and water supply. To adhere to a capacity; developing flash flood guidance and flood EWS conservative approach, the 1.2 percent savings is applied (including coastal flooding); installing a national emergency to all sectors, bringing the proposed investments’ potential notification and communication system using CAP; building total regional annual sectoral benefits to about $148 a website and portal to disseminate data, forecasts, million. and warnings to users; and establishing a user-provider Adopting advanced hydromet forecasting products into committee to meet user needs and delivering relevant decision making for optimizing sectoral productivity training (World Bank and Government of St. Lucia 2017). generally takes longer than setting up EWS for the public. Not all the proposed enhancements were implemented. To account for this delayed and expected lower adoption The benefits and improved evolution of service delivery will and operationalization—particularly in terms of smallholder take years to be fully realized because of the time it will take farmers’ potentially limited financial and technical to link the improved components and for forecasters to capacities—as well as additional costs to operators for learn to fully use the new system’s capabilities. adopting these new products, these benefits reduce to The St. Lucia project reflects a significant national about $24 million over the entire horizon (mean present modernization effort that not all 20 CARICOM countries value). This is considered very conservative. need. Based on this, it is assumed that full modernization would cost each country $4–6 million on average, so $80–120 million for the region, with a likely estimate of $90 Discount rates million. CBA uses a discount rate to represent societal preference Resourcing national MHEWS roadmaps has been a for consuming in the present as opposed to saving and challenge, however Cost-Benefit-Analysis shows that consuming in the future. A discount rate of zero percent a regional approach will lead to national cost savings indicates no preference between now and the future, through economies of scale, and the fact that there is also while a 15 percent rate represents a high preference for 68 https://data.worldbank.org/. 69 Guyana, Haiti, and Jamaica account for more than 80 percent of total regional agriculture GDP, dominated by crop production. 70 https://statinja.gov.jm/NationalAccounting/Quarterly/NewQuarterlyGDP.aspx. 68 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN greater confidence in economic efficiency should assist 4 and 10 percent of CAPEX, with a likely value of 6 percent. in leveraging needed investments. Pursuing a regional approach as proposed here could realize cost savings, for example by sharing radars and other observation Model outputs networks, developing common regional numerical weather The Monte Carlo simulation uses several probabilistic prediction, flash flood guidance, and flood forecasting distributions representing warning timeliness quality and systems, establishing regional emergency communication effectiveness; hazard frequency in the form of the multiplier systems, and running regional training events.71 A regional used to correct the AAL for insufficient capturing of more approach to investment is already being practiced in some frequent but smaller events; and benefits and costs. This fields, including the Caribbean Radar Project, instrument produces a large set of possible outcomes, represented procurements, capacity development, regional computation also by a probabilistic distribution. The assessment uses a and data storage platforms. Based on average per- 15-year time horizon, considered appropriate for hydromet country costs—as in the case of St. Lucia and specifically service and EWS modernization investments. for established national and regional numerical weather While CBA produces multiple metrics, the focus here is on prediction and FFGS/flood EWS in countries outside the BCR, which is computed by dividing the total discounted the region—this assessment estimates that a regional benefits by the total discounted costs. If the BCR is greater approach will save $30–40 million, with total regional costs than 1.0, then the investment is considered economically of $50–80 million, and a likely estimate of $66 million. efficient. The resultant aggregated BCRs are shown as For individual national modernization investments, this cumulative probability distributions in figure 4.3 for both assessment estimates operation and maintenance the assumption that there are no regional savings (national (O&M) costs of 10–15 percent of capital expenditure approach) and the regional approach proposed here. (CAPEX), with a most likely value of 12 percent. To further The BCR ranges from 1.1 to 4.2 in 95 percent of all account for potential regional savings because many of scenarios for the national approach, and 2.0 to 8.2 in the proposed investments will be shared among several 95 percent of the scenarios with the regional approach. countries, O&M for the regional investments is estimated at Both are well above 1.0, showing strong economic 2 DISTRIBUTION FIGURE 4.3. CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY 5 OF BCR Regional approach 2.5% 66.0% 31.6% National approach 37.7% 61.7% 0.6% 1.0 0.8 Distribution probability 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Benefit-cost ratio (BCR) 71 Cost savings in a regional approach could be made by reducing investment costs (less software license fees for example), reducing implementation costs (adaptation and integration of commercial software packages for example) and reducing operational and training costs. 69 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN efficiency. The mean BCRs for the national and regional • SI5. Integrating health impacts into the impact-based approaches are 2.4 and 4.4 respectively; the modes are 2.4 MHEWS and 3.7. The probability that the BCR falls below 1 is of 1.6 • SI6. Air quality health impacts percent and 0.01 percent in each case, which is a very low level of risk. • SI7. Toward a Caribbean multi-hazard operational plan Sensitivity analysis of costs indicates significant • SI8. Regional emergency alert system robustness of the results. Keeping O&M costs to 6 percent • SI9. Community-based action planning of the CAPEX, the CAPEX could go as high as $292 million • SI10. Sectoral impact-based MHEWS, the private before the costs outweigh the benefits (the mean BCR sector, and BCP becomes less than 1.0). This threshold reduces to $212 million if O&M are set at 12 percent of CAPEX. These strategic initiatives can be roughly grouped into two broad categories related to the model used for the economic analysis: Discussion of results A. SI1–SI4, SI7, and SI8, which relate to enhancing The resultant BCR range is typical of hydromet and EWS forecast accuracy, timeliness, and resolution modernization investments. As the Caribbean grows B. SI1, SI5, SI6, SI9, and SI10, which relate to the economically, so will its exposure and the AAL; this, in efficiency of stakeholders’ information use. turn will increase the benefits and the BCR resulting from enhanced hydromet services and MIHEWS. In any case, In this categorization, resolution refers not only to how the proposed investments can be considered economically geographically refined and targeted warnings are, but also efficient, and the results are robust vis-à-vis investment to specific priority sectoral information, such as health cost uncertainties, which have the greatest impacts of all under SI5. It should be noted that SI1 contributes to both the considered uncertainties. enhanced forecast products and stakeholder product use and is therefore included in both categories. The relative Unsurprisingly, a regional approach that leads to national benefits of SI categories A and B are estimated to be 85 cost savings and overall reduced costs across all countries percent and 15 percent of total benefits, respectively. is more economically efficient than each country investing This means that, according to the economic model, the on its own in an uncoordinated manner. The BCR for highest potential benefits can be generated by investing in a regional approach is almost twice that of a national improving forecasting accuracy, timeliness, and resolution. approach, indicating the proposed regional investments would generate twice the benefits per dollar invested than However, hydromet services and EWS are only as strong a series of parallel national investments. Confidence in the as their weakest link, meaning the above conclusion economy efficiency of the proposed investments is also regarding the relative benefits of SI categories A and B can higher for a regional versus national approach. be misleading. Without a fully functional SI category B, SI category A would deliver no benefits. Improved forecasting It must be noted, however, that such a lumped regional accuracy, timeliness, and resolution can only be achieved approach hides a great variety of contexts and scenarios. if stakeholders take effective decisions and actions based When the next major hurricane hits, even a modest on the warnings. Indeed, it is likely that the 15 percent of improvement in EWS would likely save hundreds of lives impact associated with the SI category B is quicker and in Haiti and billions of dollars in The Bahamas or Cayman Islands. This is important to remember when considering cheaper to achieve than the more complex monitoring, the 10 transformational strategic initiatives: forecasting, and warning efforts, required by category A, both in terms of capital investment and capacity building. • SI1. Supporting the transition to IBF and warning In this perspective, it is important to unlock category B services initiatives to fully leverage improvements in SI category A. • SI2. Toward a Caribbean geospatial platform Table 4.5 illustrates the overall benefits for the strategic • SI3. Toward a regional multi-sensor precipitation grid initiatives in terms of reduced mortality, morbidity, and increased economic productivity. • SI4. An integrated approach to flood and drought risk forecasting and warning 70 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN TABLE 4.5. OVERALL BENEFITS FOR CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES OF THE STRATEGIC INITIATIVES OUTLINED IN THIS ROADMAP SI Risk monitoring and forecasting activities Outcomes Overall benefits 1. Supporting the Web-based display systems Increased effectiveness Reduced morbidity transition to IBF & High-resolution regional numerical modeling, warning services observations, exposure, and vulnerability layers Integrate gender and vulnerable groups 2. Toward a Advance all Caribbean countries’ ability to benefit from Higher-quality community-level data Reduced Caribbean geospatial IBF for multiple hazards that identifies vulnerable areas/groups assistance costs platform Advance interoperability and value-adding in terms of Targeted forecasts that contain risk risk and climate information availability mitigation measures Facilitate the integration of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability data 3. Toward a regional Develop a high-resolution grid of observed and forecast Early warnings for flash floods and Improved multi-sensor rainfall riverine flooding; improved water productivity precipitation grid management decision making for Optimized radar network energy, agriculture, health, transport, Regional plan for operation, maintenance, calibration, environment, and tourism backup, and data exchange 4. An integrated Flash floods guidance systems approach to flooding Storm surge forecasting system Tsunami warning system 5. Integrating Combine epidemiological surveillance and hazard risk Improved public health: reduced heat Improved public health impacts into monitoring in impact forecasting activities stress in vulnerable populations, health in terms the impact-based reduced outbreaks of COVID-19 in of hospitalization Protocols for compounded or cascading hazards (e.g., MHEWS shelters, etc. for respiratory for shelter management during COVID-19, volcanic ailments, reducing eruption, and hurricanes) outbreaks of COVID-19 in shelters 6. Air quality Monitor and forecast atmospheric composition Improved public health: fewer Alerting system for thresholds related to respiratory emergency visits and hospitalizations ailments in humans, livestock, and wildlife (for for respiratory ailments, etc. sanctuaries and zoos) 7. Toward a Enhanced regional impact-based MHEWS framework Enhanced regional coordination and Caribbean multi- cooperation Basis to build and integrate future hazard models hazard operational plan 8. Regional Leverage Caribbean countries’ communications assets Public access to timely, consistent, emergency alert authoritative, targeted end-to-end Develop a public alert and warning system for regional system messaging before and during and national authorities emergencies; shorter lead times; better, more effective targeting 9. Community-based Participatory awareness-raising People-centered EWS that effectively action planning reach the last mile and are inclusive Community assessment of gender, youth, disabled, vulnerable Prioritize risks groups 10. Sectoral impact- Develop tailored forecasts for anticipated sectoral Private sector actors are fully engaged based MHEWS, the impacts in developing regional impact-based private sector and MHEWS as both contributors and Support MSMEs in forecast-based BCP BCP beneficiaries 71 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN 5 IMPLEMENTATION APPROACH 72 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Implementing the roadmap requires several key ingredients, its strategic initiatives. Defining roles and responsibilities including: an enabling policy, legislative, and regulatory for implementing the roadmap and achieving the vision is environment which should advance in concert with ultimately within the purview of the region, but to deliver technical advances; smart investments for developing each initiative, one or more agencies will need to take the institutional and human resource capacity in a sustainable lead, with other agencies participating in the process and manner; private sector involvement; and an inclusive contributing to its achievement. In general, this will involve approach to gender, community leaders, and vulnerable defining the relationship between regional agencies in groups. providing coordination and technical support, with national agencies and civil society and private sector partners The roadmap sets out 10 strategic initiatives that would sharing responsibility for carrying out activities. optimally be implemented under the overall auspices of disaster management at both regional and national Decisions on which agency serves as the lead for levels, with major support from scientific and technical implementing and sustaining an initiative or agreeing a institutions for risk monitoring, prediction, and warnings. division of responsibilities among collaborating institutions CDEMA has a CDM strategy, and Country Work Program will need to reflect true institutional capabilities and staff (CWP) development has traditionally been guided by the competencies rather than pure mandates; it is advisable CDM Audit, which is a Caribbean assessment tool and to go where competencies are present in operating part of the shift towards more systemic risk management. budgets rather than due to projects or programs. For each Overall, 79 per cent of the CDEMA Participating States (PS) strategic initiative—some of which are launching with pilot have conducted the analysis that leads and guides the activities—the lead agency (or agencies) may coordinate CWP development. As of 2022, 37 per cent of CDEMA PSs with their implementation partners to further define roles have met the Sendai Framework target E by completing and agreed responsibilities to carry out the workplan for development of their CWP, with another 21 per cent in the each stage of implementation. Sustainability planning process of finalizing their CWPs. needs to be part of these activities from the early stages. Depending on the nature of the investment, sustainability Implementing MHEWS requires integrated multi-hazard, planning can be extremely expensive, and while agencies multisector, and multistakeholder assessment, and an may have the requisite competence, they will not always understanding of the risks of biological and geohazards have the resources to sustain it. that may also be compounded by hydromet events. Implementing the strategic initiatives elaborated in this This roadmap is prepared as a strategic document to roadmap will also require the direction, leadership, and guide regional actions for enhancing existing MHEWS in commitment of regional organizations and their member the ongoing process of becoming increasingly robust and state agencies. Using a phased approach, creating an comprehensive impact-based MHEWS. And to ensure that enabling environment, and building sustainable capacity early warning service delivery reaches the last mile and is will be all be necessary to manage the transformation people-centered, it will be largely implemented at national of EWS to MHEWS and progressively to impact-based level, bringing together different national institutions MHEWS across the region. (Figure 5.1). Sustainability and effectiveness require strong national and local interagency operational coordination A phased approach will allow multiple actors to coordinate mechanisms and SOPs that are practiced and regularly activities and prioritize tasks according to available and reviewed to ensure operational readiness and coordination required financial and human resources. Strengthening at all levels. the enabling environment includes translating the vision into a robust architecture of policy and legislative support, A monitoring, evaluation, accountability, and learning which is required to sustain a well-functioning regional mechanism is therefore necessary to assess progress, impact-based MHEWS. Knowledge management is vital make revisions where course correction is advisable, for internalizing practical learning and informing ongoing develop supplementary activities that respond with capacity-building to increase and sustain human resource, agility to changing conditions, and capitalize on emerging technical, and institutional capabilities. opportunities. Regional agreement and ownership of the roadmap process is crucial for the successful implementation of 73 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN FIGURE 5.1. IMPACT-BASED MHEWS IMPLEMENTATION APPROACH 1 2 3 Using a phased Creating an Building sustainable approach enabling enviroment capacity Short Medium Long term term term Engaging the private sector Inclusive approach Involving the private sector and ensuring an approach that is inclusive of gender and vulnerable groups is essential for successful implementation of the regional MHIEWS. A phased approach An enabling environment A phased approach will help optimize the sequencing of To implement the roadmap, the policy and regulatory implementing various activities proposed in the roadmap. environment will need support to progress with any Phasing aims to capitalize on quick and easy wins in the technical advances and innovations. Underpinning the short term, build new and sustainable capacities in the roadmap is the need for all CDEMA participating states to medium term, and harness emerging opportunities over the implement CDEMA’s Model National MHEWS Policy, and longer term. A key short-term objective is to demonstrate for this, short- or medium-term benchmarks at subregional benefits at national level that a regional approach can and regional levels could be helpful. Assessing the status of augment by implementing four priority activities agreed by MHEWS in CDEMA participating states is an important step the regional partners: in this direction. National MHEWS roadmaps are available for seven CDEMA participating states, and a key goal for • Supporting harmonization to strengthen IBF in the supporting the region would be for all participating states region to develop a national MHEWS roadmap. • Developing a multi-sensor precipitation grid Strengthening IBF requires national collection, integration, • Developing an integrated approach to flooding and analysis of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure data that • Conducting a study for a regional emergency alert feed into both national and regional information systems. system. Legislative support for a regionally harmonized approach is essential to streamline interagency data sharing and These initial investments represent a set of complementary application and modeling development. This can be initiatives that address the shift from EWS to MHEWS accelerated through harmonized national implementation at national level—elements of which are already in play of agreements on the interoperability of monitoring and regionally and in several countries—while strengthening the detection systems and regional data standards, with a view foundations for impact-based MHEWS. to harnessing the longer-term potential of Big Data. Medium-term implementation includes mobilizing Policy and legislative support can also facilitate the financing for subsequent stages of the strategic initiatives expansion of private sector collaboration along the and establishing a workable, regionally led sustaining EWS value chain. Private sector involvement is crucial framework. Longer-term implementation will require to leveraging new technologies. This includes reaching fulfilling the strategic vision while also integrating new the last mile through more effective dissemination challenges and opportunities as they emerge. 74 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN and locally tailored communications and applying IBF NMHS struggle to maintain the human capacity they need for action planning to improve shock responsiveness to make the best use of new systems and technologies. in communities and businesses of all sizes. Securing Governments must therefore consider how to retain these necessary financial resources also requires advocacy and professionals who will play the critical role in achieving endorsing governments to ensure that national budgets regional and national MHEWS. support MHEWS development and operationalization. This Successful capacity building efforts require a systematic roadmap includes an economic analysis of the benefits of approach to designing and delivering appropriate training implementing a regional MHEWS (chapter 4) with a view that is related to the NMHS strategic objectives, delivers to helping leverage the required investments. Strategies the necessary competencies to achieve those objectives, for regional financing to support implementation of the and is appropriate for staff capacity levels. This will allow roadmap can be developed under the Caribbean CREWS countries to identify gaps between their current capacity initiative. and a future state of adequate capacity and should be followed by preparing and implementing a tailored capacity development plan. This systematic approach is a far cry Developing capacity from the ad hoc opportunistic capacity building activities Capacity building underpins institutional development and most NMHS adopt. There is often a reluctance to pass the human resources required to sustain it. Capacity must over opportunities, especially if they are financed by be built to ensure efforts to introduce new techniques development partners or international organizations, and or technologies into organizations involved in MHEWS NMHS often answer calls for participating in training in implementation—especially NMHS and NDMOs—are any hydromet field even if it does not match their needs, or sustainable and the changes can be managed effectively. the absorbing capacity of their staff. Only eight Caribbean This section describes a global approach to capacity NMHS have included capacity development plans in their development, recognizing that some of these are already strategic plans and national frameworks for weather, water, in use in the Caribbean region. As the regional training and and climate services. research organization, CIMH plays a vital role in training In developing a training plan, countries should explore and NMHS personnel in the region. use available options, which include: Capacity development starts at the top of an organization, and support from the region’s NMHS and other hazard and • Training: This involves academic-type courses using well-established, internationally accepted hydromet NDMO leadership and senior management is vital for the and multihazard material and a well-structured success of MHEWS capacity building efforts. Effective and syllabus to develop scientific, technical, and soft efficient functioning requires institutional management skills.72 This type of training should initially be based on skills are key to the success of innovative and modernizing NMHS personnel needs and follow a systematic, rather programs. But such skills are weak or nonexistent in many than ad-hoc, multihazard approach. It is important developing and Least Developed Countries, and need to to dedicate enough time to training to ensure all be developed or enhanced at leadership and managerial relevant staff reach the required level of knowledge levels in most Caribbean countries. Managers should also and expertise. If possible, the advantage of delivering encourage junior staff to gain knowledge, confidence, and basic/foundational meteorological training through independence in decision making. in-house courses to new recruits ensures that as Establishing, maintaining, and replacing an appropriate many staff as possible participate in the training. It cadre of professionals is a particular challenge for NMHS. would also enable capacity building for multiple staff This is often due to difficulties in recruiting talent if members, whereas overseas training would probably organizations and civil service structures cannot offer an be restricted to just one or two people. However, interesting career path, higher salary, and opportunities for NMHS should also take advantage of opportunities self-development. Without good prospects, retaining skilled for further training offered at regional training facilities and qualified staff is difficult, and many developing country and centers, and in more recent years through RCC 72 Soft skills include service delivery, user focus, communication, consultation, relationship building with users and stakeholders, media, presentation, and management skills. 75 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN and the Global Campus initiative, as the curriculums Engaging the private sector developed for these institutions can enhance previous Involving the private sector as one of the three components training. Online self-study would also allow staff to of the Global Weather Enterprise (GWE) is a key to advance further after gaining sufficient knowledge in a transformational development through implementing particular field of study. the strategic initiatives. The term GWE has been coined • Experience: This involves practical sessions and to describe the totality of activities by individuals and on-the-job practice starting with hydromet colleagues, organizations in the public (NMHSs and other related supervised by trainers or other well-trained, government organizations), private (weather services experienced staff. To ensure training investments are providers, broadcasters, equipment manufacturers, weather sustainable, NMHS should seek to retain staff in the satellite operators) and academic (universities and research positions for which they have been trained, and when organizations) sectors to enable weather information to be rotated, ensure a proper handover is in place. If staff created and provided to society (Thorpe and Rogers 2018). are assigned to a completely new area of work, the It is fundamentally global because not only is weather NMHS should ensure they get the training they need to ubiquitous, but the creation and use of weather information develop the basic skills, knowledge, and abilities for the also require the efforts of all nations. new job and are not expected to learn these new skills Forging opportunities for MSMEs in national processes through on-the-job exposure only. will help reach the last mile and strengthen inclusion by • Exposure: This involves field visits to other NMHS to enabling business owners to define their needs while also allow staff to witness operations in more advanced doing their part in building the impact-based MHEWS. organizations, after receiving in-country training. It is also important that these efforts reflect the gender Longer-term attachments also provide opportunities perspective, as women are more likely to participate in the to gain a deeper understanding and improve skill levels economic sectors that are most vulnerable to disasters, by following daily operational routines and sharing in the informal economic sector, which is particularly lessons learnt with colleagues upon return to their vulnerable to disasters, and in MSMEs characterized by country. Twinning arrangements with more advanced informality. Leveraging private sector capabilities without NMHS aimed at providing practical guidance also help jeopardizing public hydromet service provision is key for build staff confidence, improving practical skills and maximizing socioeconomic benefits (World Bank 2019). knowledge. On-the-job training is conducted under the The participation of larger enterprises as both contributors CIMH program, and arrangements are also made for and beneficiaries at the regional level will strengthen visits by personnel of NMHS to the U.S. NWS Weather demand for sustaining impact-based MHEWS while also Prediction Center Tropical Desk. potentially shouldering some of the responsibility for To build sustainability in capacity building, training experts continuity of maintenance and continual improvement to and institutions should follow up training with mentoring ensure needs-responsiveness over time. and monitoring to ensure trainees are using their new knowledge as intended and do not fall back into old habits. An inclusive approach Achieving sustainability requires institutional change, which is often a challenge for public sector organizations. It is not Efforts to ensure the regional impact-based MHEWS takes only about building capacity in existing staff; it is also about an approach that is inclusive of gender and vulnerable examining where investment is really needed to make a groups are vital, as the impact of an EWS lies in its ability sustainable difference in organizational capacity. This could to reach the people, sectors, and businesses that are most include recruiting additional staff, building new physical at risk. The implementation of this roadmap must reflect or technological infrastructure, embracing accompanying this approach in its proposed strategic initiative design, changes in mindset, and being open to new ideas and acknowledging the role of different groups and maximizing practices. Essentially, it involves changing the management their involvement. This would not only provide opportunities framework. for them to participate, but also ensure the process benefits from their key knowledge and experience. 76 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN The region needs to strengthen the availability of sex- and age-disaggregated data73 to understand the severity of the BOX 5.1. THE ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL EWS: impact of disasters on different genders.74 Region-specific A LIFE-THREATENING ASPECT OF gender analysis on how different gender and vulnerable STRUCTURAL EXCLUSION groups receive, interpret, and respond to alerts is also Data not only describes the world; it is used to shape needed. it. For reasons once understood as logical within the historical context, the world was designed for the needs of Gender-transformative EWS means addressing the root men. Those who built it did not consider women’s needs, causes and structures that lead to gendered impacts. as they were traditionally at home, not outside working Different from a superficial headcount, this requires and interacting in the public space. Once built, structures proactively designing and redesigning practices to remain. Cars, for example, continue to be designed to the dimensions of an average man, including crash dummies reduce inequalities to meet all people’s needs. Similar used in research to improve safety. As a result of gender- consideration should be given to including vulnerable biased car safety, women are 47 percent more likely to be groups. People with disabilities face more danger during seriously injured in a car crash than men—even though any hazard, yet common warning alerts and response men are more likely to be involved in a crash (Criado Perez measures are not always adequate for them. An inclusive 2019). Similar examples can be found throughout society approach in EWS design and implementation would and in our daily lives. improve outcomes for vulnerable people and create What does this mean for impact-based MHEWS? As accessible products that also benefit others in their women and girls continue to be underrepresented or overlooked in data collection and analysis, EWS are communities (Stough and Kang 2015). often designed for the average man. As a result, alert A transformative gender and inclusion methodology communication, technology, urban planning, and medical examines who is most at risk, who has access to the facilities all have a gender bias. For socioeconomic reasons, women and girls continue to be more vulnerable information required for generating early warnings, how to disasters, but the data treat men as the default and and to which population groups early warnings are issued, women as atypical. For example, although women and whether preparedness and response measures adequately children are the main users of shelters in the Caribbean, respond to alerts, and which groups should contribute to their shelter protection needs continue to be marginalized, disaster preparedness, response, and recovery.75 These reflecting that an average shelter user is considered to be considerations need to be an integral part of all strategic a man. initiatives, and particularly SI9. The good news is that what has been constructed can be reconstructed. The norms of a society can change, if A core process toward impact-based MHEWS is to build more we understand the bias of their construction. So, making end-user knowledge to target locally tailored early action, link MHEWS gender-sensitive is not enough. To address the actors that have this knowledge to MHEWS, and more all those who are at risk, impact-based MHEWS must systematically link academic knowledge and practical action. be gender- and inclusion-transformative, by using a methodology that understands the structural inequalities and reshapes all pillars to ensure true equal access to all warning services, equity and better fulfilment of human rights, and improved results in terms of lives saved and livelihoods and assets protected. 73 Some countries report that they collect sex- and age-disaggregated data but do not make it available. In these cases, it does not serve its purpose for studies or designing actions based on needs. 74 The Enhancing Knowledge and Application of CDM initiative, which supported the implementation of the CDM Framework in enhancing the mainstreaming of gender-sensitive decision-making in the public and private sectors (particularly MSMEs), found that data on directly affected populations had generally not been provided by gender. 75 Globally, the connection between EWS and the rights of vulnerable groups stems from interaction of the Sendai Framework, Beijing Declaration and the Platform for Action and the Convention on Human Rights of People with Disabilities. 77 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN The long-term goal: building a links or a system-of-systems that is linked to geospatial system-of-systems data (SI2) and uses rainfall data that are shared from radar, satellite, and country rainfall observations (SI3). Hazard Building an end-to-end impact-based MHEWS in models need to use high-resolution data to predict multiple the Caribbean will involve developing a Concept of sources of flooding (SI4) and threatening weather and Operations that links the four pillars of end-to-end EWS climate extremes, global, regional, and local numerical and encompasses the strategic initiatives outlined in this weather prediction modeling systems linked into a single roadmap. Although developed individually, each initiative environment, capable of high-resolution predictions over will eventually need to be interoperably linked or integrated land and ocean, and a multi-hazard Caribbean operational into a system-of-systems. This will likely be a phased plan (SI7) developed to deliver accurate and timely warning approach, with separate systems initially linked through a services from highly trained forecasters. workstation server until the it is possible to integrate the systems. The timeline will likely take 10–15 years as each Developing a MHEWS begins with weather, water, and hazard component is implemented and included in the climate hazards but continues evolving to progressively multisystem workstation environment where the NMHS address emerging hazards such as ocean threats from forecaster can analyze and assimilate data to produce outbreaks of sargassum and atmospheric hazards forecast and warning products. This is the operational such as dust (SI6). Volcanic eruptions, earthquakes and underpinning for the roadmap vision that needs to be tsunamis are extremely high-impact but low-frequency realized. events that need to be assessed for inclusion in the end-to-end MHEWS, as this could provide maximum lead The significant overarching goal is to build and develop time, accuracy, and impact in terms of reducing the risk IBF capability (SI1) for each hazard, with SOPs created to of catastrophic losses. The first step is to prioritize the assure impact forecasts reach communities (SI8), and to hazards to address; the second to develop a concept of ensure people at risk can convert impact warnings into operations, and the third to develop a strategic plan that effective actions (SI9 and S10). This relies on interoperable describes how the operational system will be built. 78 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN 6 RECOMMENDATIONS 79 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN The region needs to further harmonize activities aimed achievable results in the near to medium term. at strengthening the regional MHEWS. Developing a regional MHEWS strategy or roadmap was among the recommendations of a 2016 desk review of EWS in the Climate-related health impacts, including those from Caribbean region. The roadmap vision statement extreme heat, should be integrated into impact-based — “a regional model for inclusive and reliable multi-hazard, MHEWS. Caribbean countries have recognized that impact-based EWS that are effective in protecting lives, rising climate-related health risks require public health livelihoods and increasing resilience in the Caribbean”— collaboration in managing disaster risk and strengthening defines the focus on achieving a people-centered, preparedness, surveillance, and response capacities. sustainable regional impact-based MHEWS (evolving from To succeed, decision makers at all levels need to have MHEWS) through an approach that is inclusive of gender, access to the most relevant and reliable climate and health community leaders, and vulnerable groups, and involves the information available. Heatwaves have only recently been private sector. recognized as a significant threat to environment and society. Caribbean countries can manage heat-related health risks by developing a Heat Health Warning System Further synchronization of regional and international (HHWS). The impact-based MHEWS should therefore cooperation should be viewed as essential for societies to include developing a Heat Health Action Plan (HHAP) that get timely access to high-quality, actionable information. fully integrates an HHWS, the outputs of which are used to Although ever important, a stronger emphasis on operationalize a set of heat intervention strategies from the hurricanes can mask the significance of other hazards to individual to societal level. which the region is exposed, while donor activities do not always align with national and regional priorities, leading to further fragmentation and inefficiencies. The policy and regulatory environment will need to progress together with technical advances in implementing the roadmap to build a stronger impact- It is important to focus on impact when building the based MHEWS. Underpinning the roadmap is the need regional MHEWS. The ability to understand and respond for all CDEMA participating states to implement its Model effectively to warnings through appropriate anticipatory National MHEWS Policy. Legislative support for a regionally action is central to a resilient society. But a warning for any harmonized approach is also essential to streamline hazard—no matter how accurate—is not enough. To take interagency data sharing and develop crucial applications effective early action, authorities and the general population and modeling for the IBF transition. Policy and legislative need to understand the potential impacts of any hazard support can facilitate the expansion of private sector and efforts to direct people and society to take appropriate collaboration along the entire EWS value chain. action should be systematized, and the outcome of review after events, of both hazard impacts and the effectiveness of anticiptory actions, should be incorporated for continual Data policy development is challenging yet it is crucial improvement of the MHEWS. This roadmap recognizes to impact-based MHEWS delivery and should therefore the fundamental distinction between a general hazard be pursued relentlessly. The roadmap acknowledges warning and an impact-based warning by including the opportunities building on the considerable capacity and specific vulnerability of people, their livelihoods, and the existing initiatives to overcome the significant challenges exposure of assets, property and critical infrastructure at facing the region. Chief among these are sharing data risk. Thus, bearing in mind that vulnerabilities in different on weather, water, climate, and geophysical hazards, groups and sectors are compounded by recurrent disasters, exposure, and vulnerability; mainstreaming EPS for the roadmap emphasizes people-centered impact-based probabilistic forecasting; and developing risk-based MHEWS service delivery, by providing a framework warnings for communities and sectors. Countries’ inability for harmonizing complementary strategic initiatives. or unwillingness to share data affects institutional ability Focused regional, national, and local government efforts, to understand the environmental processes that drive in coordination with the private sector, through a phased disasters and to produce continually improving impact- approach, need to be a priority across the region to reach based services for multihazard risks. Opportunities to use, coordinate, and share geospatial information and satellite 80 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN data can enhance national observation networks, and some capabilities over time. This requires appropriate training state-of-the-art components are already in place in the design and delivery, competencies needed to achieve this region. Standardizing data for interoperability across the training, the required level of existing capacity of staff, Caribbean is a key priority that will facilitate data sharing. as well as adequate resourcing to support expanding capability. This systematic approach allows countries to identify gaps between existing capacity and a future Efforts to strengthen the regional impact-based MHEWS state of adequate capability and includes a tailored should take an inclusive approach for all gender and capacity development plan. Showing governments the vulnerable groups, as the impact of an EWS lies in its socioeconomic benefits of an end-to-end system with ability to reach the people, sectors, and businesses that are sufficient capacity and capability in the organizations most at risk. Roadmap implementation should therefore responsible for delivering impact-based MHEWS has reflect this approach in SI design, acknowledging the roles encouraged them to resource the system. and maximizing the involvement of different groups. This will provide opportunities for them to participate, and for the process to benefit from their key knowledge and Providing early and actionable information through experience. impact-based MHEWS to protect lives, assets, and livelihoods should be regarded as a critical requirement for alleviating fiscal shocks from the compound effects The private sector, in its multiple forms, is a key of multiple hazards. The Caribbean is impacted every stakeholder in the impact-based MHEWS process. year by multiple shocks, caused by hydromet, seismic, Private sector involvement is crucial for leveraging new environmental, or health-related events. Given the costs technologies, reaching the last mile through more effective associated with the increasing impacts of natural disasters dissemination and locally tailored communications, and contributing to the deterioration of the fiscal situation in enabling the application of IBF for anticipatory action and many Caribbean states, developing impact-based MHEWS business continuity planning to make communities and should be closely aligned with national disaster risk businesses of all sizes more responsive to shocks. financing strategies. The academic sector is an important vehicle for growth Regional roadmap investments are economically in the hydromet domain and its contributions to the more efficient than a patchwork of parallel national global weather enterprise should be actively pursued. investments and should therefore take priority. To Research and development ensure the ability to innovate justify the public and donor investments needed to fund and push the boundaries of the Global Weather Enterprise, the initiatives and activities presented in this roadmap, which encompasses public, private, and academic sectors it is important to compare their socioeconomic benefits (Thorpe and Rogers 2018). Taking advantage of scientific and costs. A CBA performed in preparing this roadmap advances and applying them to strengthen EWS and build shows that a regional approach would generate national new technologies to address community, national, regional, cost savings and reduce overall costs across all countries and global challenges is a critical enabler for bringing about and would therefore be more economically efficient than many of the changes proposed in this roadmap. countries investing individually in an uncoordinated manner. The BCR for a regional approach would generate twice the benefits per dollar invested than a series of parallel national Building and retaining capacity should be prioritized at investments. Confidence in the economic efficiency of the all levels to ensure sustainable impact-based MHEWS proposed investments is also higher for a regional than a implementation and effective change management. national approach. Capacity building underpins institutional development and the human resources required to sustain it. Introducing new techniques or technologies into MHEWS implementing Successful implementation of the roadmap is contingent organizations, especially NMHS and NDMOs, builds on the region taking ownership, as the strategic initiatives sustainable capability to deliver needs-responsive services will require collaboration and resourcing at international, and effectively manage the requisite changes to enhance regional, and national levels. Regional organizations and 81 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN member state agencies will need to provide direction, The roadmap offers a framework for widening medium- leadership, and commitment. The roadmap is not a project. term actions that are achievable through a phased It should serve a strategic document to guide regional approach. It offers a common framework to optimize the actions for progressively implementing a robust, cascading, benefit-cost ratio and encourage coherence in both national national-regional impact-based MHEWS. Implementation expenditures and donor investments. Operational impact- will therefore be largely at the national level, requiring based MHEWS in all CARICOM member states will require strong national and local operational coordination and major investment in institutional, legislative, infrastructural, interoperability to be sustained and remain relevant. technical, and human resources, and in regional and Regional expertise must be leveraged in all activities, and to national coordination mechanisms. A phased approach ensure sustained adequate resourcing, the products delive to implementing various activities in the roadmap aims to red through the SIs must be systematically integrated capitalize on quick and easy short-term wins, building new into existing platforms, programs, and institutional and and sustainable capacities in the medium term, in order to investment strategies. harness emerging opportunities over the longer term. 82 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Annex 1 Summary of the Situation Analysis of the Caribbean Multi-Hazard End-to-End Early Warning System 83 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN As part of preparation of the Roadmap, a situation analysis around the procurement of software and technologies. of the Caribbean Early Warning System was carried out Cooperation arrangements with the private sector by the World Bank in 2019-2020 in collaboration with are also lacking with respect to the collection of risk key regional stakeholders—CDEMA, CMO Headquarters, information, which should be leveraged, in particular for CIMH, and the Caribbean Community Climate Change risk information on exposure and vulnerability. Centre (5Cs), in consultation with members of the REWS Information on certain hydro-meteorological (drought, Consortium. The analysis and findings were organized tropical cyclones) and geological hazards is readily along the four interrelated elements or “pillars” of EW available at a regional level and several online platforms systems and services: (1) disaster risk knowledge based exist for the dissemination of information. However, on the systematic collection of data and disaster risk information on the other hazards and the elaboration assessments; (2) detection, monitoring, analysis and of fuller risk information related to hazards is generally forecasting of the hazards and possible consequences; (3) lacking. The information on hazards at a national and dissemination and communication by an official source of community level are not maintained consistently across authoritative, timely, accurate and actionable warnings and the region, which hinders the creation of risk information. associated information on likelihood and impact; and (4) Being able to regularly document and record hazard preparedness at all levels to take timely action to respond and risk information is tied to the general information to the warnings received. Key summary takeaways are management infrastructure. CDEMA and CIMH have presented further. assisted in the standardization of policies and procedures A foundational building block of the regional multi-hazard on risk information, but the national structures, laws, and system is the architecture and capacities of regional capabilities of their partners vary significantly. Funding organizations such as, for example, CMO HQ, CIMH, sources for the identification of natural hazards are often CDEMA, CCCCCs. Strengthening the capacities of these sporadic which has prevented the regular collection organizations, including the dynamics of coordinating, of hazard information. Assessment of community cooperating and collaborating more fully will in turn help vulnerability, in particular, is reliant on funding from them to support countries with strengthening regional external agencies which is not provided regularly. MHEWS. Consultations and analysis on MHEWS at the Risk assessments are more often conducted at a regional regional and national levels revealed common gaps that and national scale while community level analysis need to be addressed. is rarely conducted. Risk assessment is conducted using both quantitative (numerical and statistical) and qualitative (community consultation driven) methods. Pillar I: Risk Knowledge and Information These assessments are mostly focused on physical This pillar of the assessment investigated the necessary vulnerabilities, such as building construction type and components of risk knowledge, the strengthening of materials, rather than social vulnerabilities, such as organizational arrangements, identification of natural number of persons living in poverty. Societal structures hazards, analysis of community vulnerability and the that influence gendered vulnerability have been considered storage and accessibility of risk information. in risk assessments only in minor ways. There is a lack Organizational arrangements are generally very limited of identifying who is most at risk, and how gender- due to a lack of well-defined standards, roles, and differentiated roles, vulnerabilities and social norms responsibilities around the collection and management of determine risk-related behavior and vulnerability. The risk information. SIDS-specific limitations due to small size participation of women and vulnerable groups in the and lack of economies of scale, also hamper the ability collection of data (interviews, statistics, etc.) has not been of Caribbean countries to adopt new technologies which ensured systematically and faces privacy challenges if it is can streamline the creation of risk information. Legislation to be done well, and there is often no general recognition and policies are required to define roles, responsibilities, in the studies and assessments that women, men and and standards and various model legislations exist for children interact with their world differently, which can CDM and data management which are in various stages of influence their access to different types of information and adoption by CARICOM countries. The issue of economies knowledge. of scale can be addressed through regional cooperation Storage and accessibility of risk information has been 84 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN increasing over the past decade due to the proliferation of identifying and operationalizing the most efficient and regional and national data portals. However, these portals effective ways of providing essential forecast and warning are often created using project funding and not regularly services is recognized as key in the situation analysis. updated. There also seems to be lack of coordination Some state-of-the-art components are already in place and communication across regional organizations (for in the Caribbean. The WMO Flash Flood Guidance example CDEMA’s CRIS and CIMH’s DEWETRA) resulting System (FFGS) is operational in Haiti and the Dominican in the development of separate uncoordinated data bases. Republic, and Saint Lucia is currently in the process of A lack of defined standard, including privacy protection implementing it. The WMO Severe Weather Forecasting safeguards for information relating to individuals, has Program for the Eastern Caribbean (SWFP-EC) is now made it difficult to gauge the quality of information on in full implementation based on a regional operational portals and led to the creation of systems which are center in Météo- France Martinique and the CMO/CIMH difficult to maintain and integrate. Harmonizing standards regional training center. All the NMSs from Trinidad and associated technologies would allow training of to Haiti are involved and are taking advantage of the persons to be focused and capacity in the region built process to strengthen their own capability. The NOAA around the storage and dissemination of risk information. National Hurricane Center (NHC) Storm Surge Forecasting System has been successfully established in Haiti and the Dominican Republic and will be expanded throughout Pillar II: Monitoring, Forecasting and much of the Caribbean in the next years. Warnings At the same time, there is a strong view in the region Limited availability of weather, climate and especially that the heavy emphasis on hurricane EWS needs to be water data in the Caribbean curbs the ability for national balanced with improvement in overall MHEWS. A regional hydrometeorological services to provide essential operations plan for severe weather an initial set of key forecasts and warnings for the occurrence of extreme hazards is needed to create regional CONOPS and SOPs, events such as river flooding, flash flooding, coastal building on the nucleus of the region’s MHEWS already flooding and severe weather. All countries share an in place and in doing so creating a regional MHEWS agreed set of meteorological information for use by Operational Plan. This is required to strengthen the international aviation, shipping and for the preparation regional MHEWS framework, upon which existing and of national extreme weather warnings. In addition to further hazard models can then progressively build and be the meteorological data that are shared regionally, there integrated. A key hazard to be considered is tsunami and are many more observations (especially those from strengthening the Caribbean Tsunami Warning system automatic weather stations, that are retained nationally should be a focus in the short- medium-term. for specialized purposes (e.g. for climate analysis or agricultural-related decision making). All countries Although some countries are advancing IBF and tailored collect and use river and other hydrological data with messaging to communicate risk clearly and provide varying levels of sophistication, but rarely are these data advice on actions that can be taken to reduce risks, it is exchanged regionally. The radar network in the region not yet well understood in the region and is interpreted has a huge potential for providing rainfall data to almost quite differently between countries. Recent assessment of all countries, but data sharing policy restrictions and hurricane forecasting performance by the WMO revealed limitations such as common data formatting, protocols that forecasts and warnings are generally accurate. and complexity for calibration prevent availability of this However, as highlighted in the context of pillars III and much-needed data. IV below, the public and private sector are not always able to translate forecasts and warnings into actions In addition, amongst the CARICOM States and Associate to protect their homes or businesses. CIMH has begun Member States there are ten with functioning National supporting an IBF initiative together with the Barbados Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) or Meteorological Service (BMS), the Barbados Department NMSs and eight States that do not have NMHSs/NMSs of Emergency Management (DEM) among others to pilot but rather, through regionally coordinated arrangements, the Weather and Climate Ready Nations approach in the receive forecast and warning services from their region. Advancing and strengthening IBF in the Caribbean neighbors. Supporting existing regional organizations in is clearly a key strategic initiative to pursue. 85 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Current radar coverage is fairly comprehensive, yet gaps that fits all the requirements for the timely notification of exist as it is largely ad hoc, lacking the consistency and an emergency incident or situation that is resilient to all interoperability which would be required to deliver rainfall contingencies. Thus, an Emergency Alert System (EAS) data with accuracy across the region. Improving the ought to be a blend combining sufficient redundancy regional radar network, combined with regional data- with the best attributes of the existing technologies and sharing arrangements, is a key to unlocking the power of adapted to the particular demands of the countries or rainfall data to inform rapidly developing water, weather territories served. However, EAS solutions also involve the and climate modelling and forecasting capability for the acquisition, installation and configuration of hardware/ entire region. software platforms, which can be costly and may be beyond the means of many Caribbean states. A regional EAS platform is much more cost effective with Pillar III: Warnings Dissemination and a sole (redundant) regional platform for the use of every Communication Caribbean country instead of each country deploying their According to stakeholder consultations, although all own platforms. Some of the counterparts already operate countries have mechanisms in place for alert and warning at a regional level. Such a platform needs to be connected dissemination, with strategies for that purpose facilitated to Mobile Network Operators (MNO). Since two major by CDEMA and CIMH, in general, these are far from being MNOs are operating in most Caribbean countries, this optimal and barely take advantage of all the technological connection (or interface) with them could offer a means possibilities that exist today. In fact, the use of newer to begin with. For these reasons a regional approach, that technologies - such as the Common Alerting Protocol takes advantage of economies of scale, is proposed for (CAP), Cell Broadcast, social media, etc. is quite limited. implementing EAS to strengthen and streamline MHEWS Additionally, communication disruptions, during and in in the Caribbean. the aftermath of extreme events, have been a common experience in recent years. With respect to responsibilities for warning dissemination, Pillar IV: Planning and Preparedness at all roles are not always formalized nor backed by legislation, levels to respond to early warning policies or budgets, while uncontrolled warning According to the consultations and analysis of the dissemination on social media from non-authorized current MHEWS situation at a regional level, there is a sources are a growing concern. There is a lack of very significant body of institutionalization, knowledge harmonized communications SOPs for early-warning and experience in terms of disaster preparedness and services, a scarcity of gender-transformative messaging response, at the regional, national and local levels. These and means of communication which recognizes that men include many robust elements such as CDEMA’s Regional and women access, process, interpret and respond to Response Mechanism (RRM), existing standards and information in different ways. For delivery to be effective, materials for preparedness and response, community the means of transmission as well as the messaging resilience frameworks, regional drill and simulation require tailoring, so they are readily understood and exercises, just to mention some. acted upon, and are specifically tailored to women, youth However, the region is not exempt from weaknesses in and vulnerable groups. On the other hand, insufficient this area, such as out of date legislation and plans, a communications skills as part of public weather services focus on hurricanes with insufficient attention to other have been identified, especially for probabilistic forecasts, hazards, low community engagement and ownership, with preventing available information from fully informing risk assessments lacking community involvement and the decision-making process. In addition, public sector sufficient sex- and age-disaggregated data collected in involvement in this area is largely ad hoc. Currently, the cooperation with women and men. Moreover, response messaging is designed for an estimated average user, plans (where they exist) are rarely drilled with communities which tends to favor only a certain strata of society. and no assessments to determine community capacity For the delivery of public warnings, while the CAP offers for forecast-based action are undertaken. Finally, there is a consistent notification standard for warning messages, an overall lack of reliable and adequate financing for early no single solution has been implemented in the region action, with little systematic engagement of the private 86 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN sector, among others. Gender and Vulnerable Groups integration – Based on this analysis of the situation, the region is reaching the people at risk presented with a great deal of opportunity to improve Caribbean governments and regional organizations planning and preparedness, as well as some opportunities have taken significant steps in order to guarantee that that could easily turn into threats if not diligently legislative frameworks affirm the equality of men and addressed. For example, building on the development women. While this is much needed and a significant of risk forecasting capability, disaster management strength, it is also evident that in practice structural stakeholders emphasize the need for people-centered gender inequalities exist in the society at large. Based early warning services that effectively reach the last mile. on the results of the literature review and workshops, To achieve this, a regional architecture for emergency alert the Caribbean is currently in a gender aware phase, systems needs to be established to ensure that resilient which is the 2nd phase of a 4-step scale in progressing delivery capacity for reaching all people is mandated and towards gender transformative EWS (Brown et al. 2019; maintained. details in Annex 1). In this phase, the region recognizes Investment in EWS has historically – and necessarily the importance of gender and vulnerable groups in - been heavily weighted on hard infrastructure and EWS but makes only minor adjustments to address it. related data management and modelling systems for When starting to evaluate the situation on gender and monitoring and detection, and to ensure robust “push” vulnerable groups in EWS through a literature and data capacity to disseminate warnings produced. Investment review, the first observation was that the region has only in the requisite soft infrastructure required to fully exploit some previous materials on the theme and does not have warnings, investments in strengthening relationships sufficient availability of sex- and age-disaggregated data in as infrastructure, and in building the uptake capacity of regard to disaster effects, which is needed to understand people at the community level can be characterized as the severity of the gendered effects of disasters. a missing link. To meet this need, support is required to The existence of National Gender Bureaus and the enable community action planning processes to involve regional Gender Working Group under the CDM Strategy people in forecast-based action planning. opens an opportunity for the region, as these existing To ensure sustainability, stakeholders underlined the structures can work to ensure regional and national need to normalize regular drills and simulation exercises, ownership of inclusive EWS. Most of the Gender Bureaus, and to address the necessity for reliable, adequate and however, have neither engaged with EWS prior to the timely financing (e.g. “forecast-based financing). After- workshops conducted as part of this analysis, nor have action assessment is also essential to enable continual gender matters been considered in relation to hydromet improvement in the effectiveness of forecast-based services. It follows from this that the knowledge base on action planning and implementation at the community the importance of gender and vulnerable groups in EWS level. Therefore, developing and piloting a comprehensive rests largely within these few bureaus. community-based early warning early action approach Inclusiveness has been defined to target gendered should aim not to develop “a plan,” but rather to engender structures, pregnant women, the elderly, children, youth, the transformation required “to make the last mile the first vulnerable rural populations and persons that are mile.” differently abled. In order to strengthen people-centered, end-to-end MHEWS from a gender and vulnerable groups perspective, strengthened political commitment is needed, including to ensure cooperation for capacity strengthening. 87 Annex 2 Linkages between proposed strategic initiatives and regional and national activities 88 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN SI1 The Caribbean CREWS project further supports the first effort to bring together NDMOs, NMHS, and national gender bureau experts and practitioners to explore constraints and opportunities Supporting the together, launched with the virtual IBF and Scenario Planning Workshop organized by Caribbean transition to IBF CREWS institutional and regional partners in 2020. and warning https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/caribbean-workshop-impact-based-forecasting-and-risk- services scenario-planning. The Caribbean Weather & Climate Ready Nations program, which is integral to and fully aligned with the roadmap, continues to supported the transition to IBF. https://www.preventionweb.net/ news/new-climate-programme-launched-barbados-and-eastern-caribbean. It will also need WMO commitment to NMHS operations. The OECS Scoping Study on Forecast-based Action developed initial recommendations for strengthening forecast-based early action with support from the French development agency (AfD) and participation from CDEMA, CIMH, CCCCCs, and others. https://www.climatecentre.org/ downloads/files/Forecast%20based%20early%20action_Final_11%20June.pdf. The USAID-funded Strengthening Disaster and Climate Resilience Project, executed by the CIMH, seeks to strengthen IBF capabilities by expanding IBF tools within the Caribbean DEWETRA Platform, delivering capacity-building workshops and providing low-cost, near real-time hydromet stations. These activities are aligned with the Caribbean Weather & Climate-Ready Nations program. In addition, risk-based forecasting for flooding was piloted to demonstrate the added value of forecasting risk. https://bb.usembassy.gov/usaid-announces-extension-of-strengthening- disaster-climate-resilience-project-at-the-caribbean-institute-of-meteorology-hydrology/ The Expanded Weather and Climate Forecasting and Innovative Product and Service Development and Delivery in the Caribbean (GA179) project https://www.caribank.org/ publications-and-resources/resource-library/board-papers/grants-capital-and-technical- assistance-contributions-and-use-funds/expanded-weather-and-climate-forecasting-and- innovation-product-and-service-development-and-delivery The Enhancing Weather and Climate Early Warning Systems and Impacts-based Forecasting Platforms in the Caribbean project (GA176), executed by the CIMH under the ACP-EU-CDB- NDRM76 facilitated the expansion of the Caribbean DEWETRA Platform and brought together mainly meteorological forecasters and disaster management personnel for training on the Caribbean DEWETRA Platform. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Shawn-Boyce-2/ publication/318361452_Impacts-based_Forecasting_and_Multi-hazard_Early_Warning_Systems_ in_the_Caribbean/links/5965e6ca0f7e9b2a36816336/Impacts-based-Forecasting-and-Multi- hazard-Early-Warning-Systems-in-the-Caribbean.pdf NMHS have started implementing different aspects of IBF through various arrangements as they seek to improve service delivery to the general public; e.g. https://www.barbadosweather.org SI2 The Caribbean Geospatial Development Initiative seeks to empower Caribbean countries and territories to advance the greater use and sharing of geospatial and statistical information to Toward a support improved decision making for sustainable national and regional development. https:// Caribbean www.cepal.org/en/events/caribbean-geospatial-development-initiative-carigeo. geospatial platform CCCCCs has been supporting regional forecasting tools, networks and data—such as FEWER Fisheries’ Early Warning and Emergency Response app, the CREWS network, and the Caribbean 76 https://europa.eu/capacity4dev/drr-acp/wiki/acp-eu-natural-disaster-risk-management-cariforum 89 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Weather Impacts Group portal (http://cariwig.caribbeanclimate.bz/#info)—as well as providing a Lidar system, which is vital for developing bathymetric data to support the development of EWS. https://www.caribbeanclimate.bz/blog/2018/11/30/ccccc-adds-lidar-to-boost-caribbeans-climate- change-fight/ The Regional Geospatial Service Development SERVIR is a joint development initiative between the North American Space Agency and USAID. SERVIR-Amazonas will provide training for and facilitate technical engagement with governments, universities, research institutions, and NGOs in the Caribbean aimed at developing sustainable geospatial applications and services related to SI2 and forecast and monitoring hydromet events. https://servir.ciat.cgiar.org/servir-amazonia-to- engage-with-caribbean-stakeholders-to-foster-geospatial-service-development/. The URISA Caribbean Chapter is the Caribbean geospatial organization, which aims to: be a network of GIS knowledge across the Caribbean; provide a wealth of professional services for its members; assist in the development of innovative professionals prepared for the future of GIS; promote and cultivate the use of GIS to enhance the research, development and expansion of GIS use within the region; promote the development and publication of standards and methodologies; and influence government policy and governance on the effective and efficient use of GIS in the Caribbean region. https://www.urisa.org/caribbeanchapter The Caribbean DEWETRA Platform is an online tool that manages geospatial data from near real-time networks, satellite observations, and forecast models to assess hydromet impacts. It was designed to aid decision making by seamlessly fusing data from different sources, including socioeconomic and vulnerability information. It presents ground- and space-based near real-time hydromet observations and numerical weather prediction model outputs alongside flood and landslide hazard maps, population demographics, and geolocated critical infrastructure. The application is maintained by CIMH staff and used to support IBF and early warning. CMO member states and other stakeholders have access. https://www.coopi.org/en/dewetra-a-real-time- platform-to-predict-weather-related-risks.html The Caribbean Risk Information System (CRIS) is supported by CDEMA and provides an integrated regional platform for geospatial data, disaster risk management and climate change adaptation information. https://www.cdema.org/cris/. The WMO Severe weather forecasting Initiative (SWFP) in the Eastern Caribbean aims to provide reliable forecasts of hazardous weather in support of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/meteoworld/strengthening-of-severe-weather- forecasting-capabilities-eastern-caribbean The University of the West Indies Seismic Research Centre (UWI-SRC) is the official source of information on earthquakes and volcanoes in the English-speaking Eastern Caribbean. https://uwiseismic.com The UWI Mona Climate Studies Group Mona develops computer-based models to project climate variability and change. Inter alia, the Simple Model for the Advection of Storms and Hurricanes (SMASH), the development of which was led largely by Dr Tannecia Stephenson, lecturer in the Department of Physics, allows the user to examine different scenarios of hurricane tracks and intensity and determine the associated rain rates and wind speeds for a given location, allowing users to answer the `what if’ questions and investigate multiple scenarios. For example, what a category 5 would have done for an area in terms of rainfall amounts and wind speeds. https:// uwimonanow.com/index_view_more.php?id=415 90 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN SI3 Since 2004, CCCCCs has been seeking financial support, researching, and pooling regional resources to help countries cope with the expected impacts of a changing climate. There is scope Toward a to align CCCCCs’ recent work introducing regional planners to and training them in applying and regional using forecasting tools to make countries weather and climate-ready with the development of a multisensory rainfall grid regional precipitation grid. https://reliefweb.int/report/cuba/climate-scientists-use-forecasting- tools-protect-caribbean-ways-life. SERVIR provides local decision makers with the tools, training, and services they need to act on climate-sensitive issues such as disasters, agricultural security, water management, and land use, which could include building understanding of the benefits of a regional rainfall grid. https:// servir.ciat.cgiar.org/servir-amazonia-to-engage-with-caribbean-stakeholders-to-foster-geospatial- service-development/. CCRIF SPC Excess Rainfall (XSR) Model and its XSR product models rainfall losses to the built environment in close to real time, enabling swift insurance payouts after a triggering event. CCRIF is continually improving and developing parametric insurance products based on modeled losses, which is faster and can be more objective and accurate than ex-post ground-based verification of actual losses. This approach also builds the foundations for possible future ex-ante payouts triggered by a defined threshold of risk. https://www.ccrif.org/en/publications/technical-paper/ ccrif-excess-rainfall-xsr-model?language_content_entity=en. SI4 WMO is developing an approach for integrated riverine flood forecasting (SWFP, FFGS, CIFI) and IBF for the Dominican Republic. https://public.wmo.int/en/events/meetings/approach-integrated- An integrated riverine-flood-forecasting-swfp-ffgs-cifi-and-impact-based. approach to flooding OECS countries have introduced a methodology based on assessing operational disruptions due to changing climatic factors, producing marine flood maps for ports and airports for different future scenarios. This applied decision support for critical infrastructure can provide a practical contribution to build on in the OECS countries and include in scaling up an integrated approach to flooding in the wider Caribbean region. https://unctad.org/es/node/1766. Flood-PROOFS, (https://www.cimafoundation.org/foundations/research-development/ flood-proofs.html) the hydromet forecasting chain integrated into the Caribbean DEWETRA Platform, provides a workflow that uses numerical weather prediction outputs and observed data to generate forecasts and nowcasts of discharge and peak flows, respectively, using the Continuum open source hydrological model. The Flood-PROOFS forecasting chain has been piloted in Barbados and Guyana, and discussions are ongoing regarding expansion to other CMO member states. Continuum is a continuously distributed, physically-based hydrological model capable of reproducing the spatial-temporal evolution of soil moisture, energy fluxes, surface soil temperature, evapotranspiration, and discharge. (Silvestro et al. 2015, 2019) WRF-Hydro®is an open source community hydrological model that supports flash flood predictions, impact assessments, and seasonal forecasting. The CIMH runs and maintains operational 4-kilometer WRF numerical prediction models over the Caribbean. Model outputs are publicly available and used by NMHS to support forecast operations. WRF-Hydro® may be forced by WRF outputs for the purposes of forecasting peak flows, discharges, and the propagation of flows through hydrological systems. Under the CIMH research and development program, instances of WRF-Hydro® will be developed and implemented across the Caribbean to provide additional guidance to NMHS and further support IBF. This effort is resourced internally. It is expected that this effort will complement any existing forecast products. https://ral.ucar.edu/projects/wrf_hydro 91 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN SI5 The EWISACTs consortium has been laying the groundwork to strengthen climate services for inter alia the public health sector. https://public.wmo.int/en/resources/bulletin/strengthening- Integrating climate-services-health-sector-caribbean. health impacts into the impact- The Caribbean Health-Climatic Bulletin is a climate-smart tool developed and disseminated by based MHEWS CARPHA, PAHO, and CIMH to help the health sector manage climate risk. https://rcc.cimh.edu.bb/ caribbean-health-climatic-bulletin/. CIMH has been researching heat-health forecasting, promoting understanding, and developing outlooks and products for heat early warning in the region. https://ghhin.org/wp-content/uploads/ VanMeerbeeck_Herrera.pdf. The Barbados Meteorological Service and Ministry of Health and Wellness have developed a modeling approach that combines the dengue prediction model with climate indicators. Routinely monitored and forecast by the CIMH Regional Climate Centre, probabilistic dengue outlooks could be included in the quarterly Caribbean Health-Climatic Bulletin to provide climate-smart decision- making guidance for Caribbean health practitioners. This flexible modeling approach could be extended to model the risk of dengue and other arboviruses in the Caribbean region. https://www. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6049902/. SI6 WMO Pan American Node Sand and Dust Storm Initiative and its Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System enhance countries’ ability to deliver timely, quality sand and Air quality dust storm forecasts, observations, information and knowledge to users through an international partnership of research and operational communities. The Pan American Node established its Regional Steering Group at the CIMH in 2017. http://sds-was.cimh.edu.bb. CAHN is primarily a network of health and environmental agencies whose mission is to improve the understanding of the impacts (on air quality, health, climate, weather, ecosystems, and so on) of atmospheric particles. Although regional in focus, extra-regional participation is encouraged. One output of this collaboration is the NASA ROSES-funded Caribbean Air-quality aLert and Management Assistance System – Public Health (CALIMA-PH), which integrates ground-based observations (in situ and remotely sensed), satellite remote sensing, and dust forecast models to better understand the impacts that African dust incursions—such as the historic “Godzilla” mega dust event in June 2020—have on the air quality of the Greater Caribbean Basin (and southern United States). https://www.nccs.nasa.gov/news-events/nccs-highlights/field-campaigns SI7 WMO has developed a concept for an efficient, adaptable MHEWS that integrates FFGS, CIFI, and SWFP. https://community.wmo.int/mhews-concept-reference-material-et-mie Toward a Caribbean WMO Region IV (North America, Central America, and the Caribbean) Hurricane Committee was multi-hazard established to improve the region’s hurricane warning systems and its hurricane operational plan operational plan is available to all. https://library.wmo.int/?lvl=notice_display&id=13696#.YX9TzdbML9E. SI8 CIMH has provided training on the benefits of integrating the CAP into IBF. https://preparecenter. org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/cap-workshop-2019-weather-and-climate-ready-nations.pdf. Regional emergency WebAlert is a web-based application within the Caribbean DEWETRA Platform that supports system alert generation and dissemination. The CIMH is leveraging platform functionality to develop an application that generates and publishes CAP alerts that consider IBF concepts and collates and 92 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN publishes available CAP feeds for Caribbean countries. WMO offers an online CAP basics course. https://etrp.wmo.int/course/view.php?id=163. CAP offers an annual workshop, attended in 2021 by delegations from Grenada, Barbados, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago, and participants from Belize, British Virgin Islands, Curaçao, Dominica, France, Guyana, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Turks and Caicos, Sint Maarten, and the UWI. https://cap-workshop.alert-hub.org/2021/training.pdf. A linked 2021 CAP workshop for the Red Cross offered follow-up support to national Red Cross Societies on the CAP, public awareness and engagement, and early warning early action, regionally coordinated by IFRC/Red Cross Caribbean Disaster Risk Management. https://preparecenter.org/ site/ifrcalerthubinitiative/rcrc-cap-workshop-2021/. SI9 The French Red Cross READY Together project has been supporting MHEWS awareness and promoting early warning early action since 2020. https://www.interreg-caraibes.com/news/ready- Community- together-launches-its-awareness-campaign. based action planning The OECS Commission has engaged with regional experts and researchers to develop an initial forecast-based action and financing plan. https://cdn.odi.org/media/documents/odi_oecs_rfba_ action_plan_final1603.pdf. SI10 The Caribbean Society for Agricultural Meteorology agroclimatic bulletin prepared by CIMH highlights agricultural impacts from the previous month’s climate as well as provides climate Sectoral impact- smart information to the stakeholders. Climate products from the Caribbean Regional Climate based MHEWS, Centre drought monitoring products; rainfall, temperature, and drought forecasts) are embedded the private within the bulletin. http://carisam.cimh.edu.bb/. sector and BCP CARICHAM, the Caribbean Chambers of Commerce network, offers a BCP toolkit. Across the region, universities, chambers of commerce, and organizations such as the UNDRR ARISE network, help entrepreneurs put BCPs in place. UNDRR has run workshops with CARICHAM to help small business owners use its tools to better prepare for disasters. https://www. caribbeanchambers.net/caricham-bcp UNDRR’s COVID-19 Small Business Continuity and Recovery Planning Toolkit is designed to help firms protect their employees, customers, and operations; its online Quick Risk Estimation tool helps entrepreneurs gauge their risk exposure. https://www.undrr.org/news/battered-caribbean- businesses-set-hopes-resilient-recovery. In the framework of the READY Together project’s Business Disaster Preparedness initiative, the French Red Cross Regional Intervention Platform for the Americas and the Caribbean, supports workshops and coaching for small businesses in Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Lucia to help them assess the impact of natural hazards on their activity and develop BCPs. https://pirac.croix- rouge.fr/en/our-missions/disaster-preparedness/ The IFRC’S Global Disaster Preparedness Center features a BCP helpdesk. https://preparecenter. org/toolkit/business-continuity-planning-help-desk/. 93 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN References Acevedo Mejía, S. 2016. Gone with the Wind: Estimating Latin America and the Caribbean. Inter-American Hurricane and Climate Change Costs in the Caribbean. Development Bank. IMF WP N. 16/199. CMO. 2018. The Coordinating Director’s Report 2018 on Akpinar-Elci, M, Martin, F E, Behr, J G and Diaz, R. CMO Headquarters Unit Activities. CMC 58 doc 3(a). 2015b. “Saharan dust, climate variability, and asthma http://www.cmo.org.tt/cmc58.html. in Grenada, the Caribbean.” International Journal of Biometeorology, 59(11): 1667–1671. CRED. 2019. Disasters 2018: Year in Review. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. https:// Amadeo et al. 2015, Impact of close-proximity air www.cred.be/publications. pollution on lung function in schoolchildren in the French West Indies. BMC Public Health 15(1):1 Criado Perez, C. 2019. Invisible Women: Exposing Data Bias in a World Designed for Men. Boyce, S A. 2018. The Caribbean DEWETRA Platform. American Meteorological Society. https://ams.confex. Eckstein, D, Hutflis, M-L and Winges, M. 2019. Global com/ams/98Annual/webprogram/Paper336393.html. Climate Risk Index 2019: Who Suffers Most from Extreme Weather Events?: Weather-related Loss Events Cadelis, G, Tourres, R, Molinie, J and Petit, R H. 2013. in 2018 and 1998 to 2017. Berlin: Germanwatch. “Exacerbations of asthma in Guadeloupe (French West Indies) and volcanic eruption in Montserrat (70 km from Emerton, R, Stephens, E, Pappenberger, F, Pagano, T, Guadeloupe).” La Revue des Maladies Respiratoires, Weerts, A, Wood, A, Salamon, P, Brown, J, Hjerdt, N, 30(3): 203–214. doi:10.1016/j.rmr.2012.11.002. Donnelly, C, Baugh, C and Cloke, H. 2016. “Continental and global scale flood forecasting systems.” WIREs CARICOM. 2017. “Private sector capacity building Water, 3(3): 391–418. https://doi.org/10.1002/ and consultation: CARICOM Strategy for Regional wat2.1137. Implementation of the World Trade Organization agree on trade facilitation.” 20 April. https://caricom.org/ Fanning, L, Mahon, R, Compton, S, Corbin, C, private-sector-capacity-building-and-consultation- Debels, P, Haughton, M, Heileman, S, Leotaud, N, caricom-strategy-for-regional-implementation-of- McConney, P, Perez Moreno, M, Phillips, T and Toro, the-world-trade-organization-agreement-on-trade- C. 2021. “Challenges to implementing regional ocean -facilitation-tfa/. governance in the wider Caribbean region.” Frontiers in Marine Science, April 7. https://www.frontiersin.org/ Carsell, K M, Pingel, N D and Ford, D T. 2004. articles/10.3389/fmars.2021.667273/full. “Quantifying the benefit of a flood warning system.” Natural Hazard Review, 131–140. Garrison, V H, Majewski, M S, Foreman, W T, Genualdi, S A, Mohammed, A and Simonich, SM. 2014. “Persistent CDEMA. 2014. Regional Comprehensive Disaster organic contaminants in Saharan dust air masses in Management (CDM): Strategy and Results Framework, West Africa, Cape Verde and the eastern Caribbean.” 2014–2024. Science of the Total Environment, 468: 530–543. ———. 2018. Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems: A GCA. 2019. Adapt Now: A Global Call for Leadership on Checklist. Developed in collaboration with the UNDP, Climate Resilience. Global Center on Adaptation. https:// IFRC and ECHO. gca.org/reports/adapt-now-a-global-call-for-leadership- on-climate-resilience/. Cifuentes, L A, Krupnick, A J, O’Ryan, R and Toman, M. 2005. Urban Air Quality and Human Health in Granderson, C. 2018. Pathways to Resilience in Climate- 94 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Affected Small Island Developing States (SIDS). https:// Pasetto, D, Finger, F, Camacho, A, Grandesso, F, Cohuet, www.un.org/ecosoc/sites/www.un.org.ecosoc/files/ S, Lemaitre, J C, Azman, A S, Luquero, F J, Bertuzzo, files/en/2018doc/caricom-statement-ecosoc-resilience- E and Rinaldo, A. 2018. “Near real-time forecasting sids-cad.pdf. for cholera decision making in Haiti after Hurricane Matthew.” PLOS Computational Biology, 14(5): Grant, S. 2020. “Cell broadcast as an emergency alert e1006127. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/ platform in the UK.” Flood Digital Services, March PMC5973636/. 27. https://medium.com/flood-digital-services/cell- broadcast-as-an-emergency-alert-platform-in-the-uk- Penning-Rowsell, E, Floyd, P, Ramsbottom, D and a4b28f2d910e. Surendran, S. 2005. “Estimating injury and loss of life in floods: a deterministic framework.” Natural Hazards, Gyan, K, Henry, W, Lacaille, S, Laloo, A, Lamsee-Ebanks, 36(1): 43–64. C, McKay, S, Antoine, R M and Monteil, M A. 2005. “African dust clouds are associated with increased Resiere, D, Valentino,R, Nevière, R, Banydeen, R, Gueye, paediatric asthma accident and emergency admissions P, Florentin, J, Cabié,A, Lebrun, T, Mégarbane, B, on the Caribbean island of Trinidad.” International Guerrier, G, Mehdaoui, H, 2019. Sargassum Seaweed Journal of Biometeorology, 49(6):371–376. doi:10.1007/ on Caribbean Islands: an international public health s00484-005-0257-3. concern Hallegatte, S. 2012. A Cost-Effective Solution to Rogers, D, Tsirkunov, V, Bogdanova, A-M and Suwa, Reduce Disaster Losses in Developing Countries: M. 2020. Mind the Gap: Addressing Critical Technical Hydro-Meteorological Services, Early Warning, and Issues in Strengthening Hydrometeorological Services. Evacuation. World Bank Policy Research Working Washington DC: World Bank. Paper 6058. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/ handle/10986/9359. Rogers, D and Tsirkunov, V. 2021 Open Data: A Path to Climate Resilience and Economic Development in South Kull, D, Riishojgaard, L P, Eyre, J and Varley, R. 2021. Asia?, Washington DC: World Bank. The Value of Surface-based Meteorological Observation Data. World Bank, World Meteorological Organization Rogers, D P, Anderson-Berry, L, Bogdanova, A-M, and British Crown Met Office. Fleming, G, Gitay, H, Kahandawa, S, Kootval, H, Staudinger, M, Suwa, M, Tsirkunov, V and Wang, W. Monteil, M A. 2008. “Saharan dust clouds and human 2020a. Learning from Multi-Hazard Early Warning health in the English-speaking Caribbean: what we Systems to Respond to Pandemics. Washington DC: know and don’t know.” Environmental Geochemistry and World Bank. https://documents1.worldbank.org/ Health, 30(4): 339–343. curated/en/429511592591445701/pdf/Learning-from- Multi-Hazard-Early-Warning-Systems-to-Respond-to- Palmer, T. 2019 “The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction Pandemics.pdf. System: Looking Back (more than) 5 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years.” Quarterly Journal of the ———-2020b. “COVID-19 and lessons from multi-hazard Royal Meteorological Society, 145(S1): 12–24. early warning systems.” Journal of Advances in Science and Research 17: 129–41. https://pdfs.semanticscholar. Pappenberger, F, Cloke, H, Parker, D, Wetterhall, F, org/833e/904877d96c186d0a6716ad71f6ab76ce41c4. Richardson, D and Thielen, J. 2015. “The monetary pdf. benefit of early flood warnings in Europe.” Environmental Science and Policy, 51: 278–291. Rozenberg, J, Browne, N, De Vries Robbé, S, Kappes, M, Lee, W and Prasad, A. 2021. 360° Resilience: A Guide to Parker, D, Priest, S, Tapsell, S, Handmer, J and Schildt, Prepare the Caribbean for a New Generation of Shocks. A. 2009. Developing Models to Estimate the Benefits of Washington DC: World Bank. https://openknowledge. Flood Warning. FLOODsite. worldbank.org/handle/10986/36405. 95 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN Rozenberg et al. 2021 or Global Economic Prospects Checklist. https://www.unisdr.org/files/608_10340.pdf. 2021 (WB 2021) WHO-WMO. 2012. Atlas of Health and Climate. World Silvestro et al. 2015 https://hess.copernicus.org/ Health Organization and World Meteorological articles/19/1727/2015/ Organization. Silvestro et al. 2019 https://www.jstor.org/ WMO. 2018. Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems: A stable/26758418 Checklist. World Meteorological Organization. Stough, L and Kang, D. 2015. “The Sendai Agreement ———. 2019. Concept for an Integrated, Efficient, and disaster risk reduction: conceptual influences Sustainable, and Adaptable MHEWS for FFGS, CIFDP from de field of disability studies.” Natural Hazards and SWFDP: Call to Action in a Reformed WMO. Observer Vol XL(5). https://www.researchgate.net/ Consolidated Report Part B. https://community.wmo. publication/305992236_The_Sendai_Agreement_and_ int/mhews-concept-reference-material-et-mie. Disaster_Risk_Reduction_Conceptual_Influences_from_ the_Field_of_Disability_Studies. ———. 2020. State of Climate Services. World Meteorological Organization. https://library.wmo.int/ Subbiah, A.R., Bildan, Lolita and Narasimhan, Ramraj. doc_num.php?explnum_id=10385. 2008. “Assessment of the Economics of Early Warning Systems for Disaster Risk Reduction Background WMO, World Bank, GFDRR and USAID. 2015. Valuing Paper”. Background paper for the Joint World Bank Weather and Climate: Economic Assessment of – UN Project on the Economics of Disaster Risk Meteorological and Hydrological Services. WMO-No. Reduction. World Bank, Washington, DC. 1153. Geneva: World Meteorological Organization. Tilleray, S and Gill, F. 2020. “Stress scenario: the World Bank. 2018. Disaster Risk Management in sovereigns most vulnerable to a COVID-19-related the Caribbean: The World Bank’s Approaches and slowdown in tourism.” S&P Global Ratings: Comments, Instruments for Recovery and Resilience. International March 17. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/ Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World research/articles/200317-stress-scenario-the- Bank. sovereigns-most-vulnerable-to-a-covid-19-related- slowdown-in-tourism-11387024. ———. 2019. The Power of Partnership: Public and Private Engagement in Hydromet Services. https://www. Thorpe, A and Rogers, D. 2018. “The Future of the gfdrr.org/en/power-of-partnership. Global Weather Enterprise: Opportunities and Risks.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 99(10): ———. 2020.A Situation Analysis of the Caribbean Multi- 2003–8. Hazard End-to-End Early Warning System. Produced under the CREWS Caribbean project in collaboration ———. 2022. Investing in Digital Hydrometeorological with key regional stakeholders. Data for the Developing World. Washington DC: World Bank). ———. 2021. Global Economic Prospects 2021. UNDRR. 2019. GAR 2019: Global Assessment Report World Bank and Government of St. Lucia. 2017. on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019. https://gar.undrr.org/ Strengthening Weather, Water and Climate Services: report-2019. Roadmap for St. Lucia. UNDRR. 2020. Hazard Definition and Classification Review. https://www.undrr.org/publication/hazard- definition-and-classification-review. UNISDR. 2006. Developing Early Warning Systems: A 96 A STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR ADVANCING MULTI-HAZARD IMPACT-BASED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS AND SERVICES IN THE CARIBBEAN 97 CLIMATE RISK & EARLY WA R N I N G S YST E M S