Public Disclosure Authorized Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement Findings from the UK-UNHCR-World Bank Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement Research Program Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized © DOMINIC CHAVEZ/WORLD BANK Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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Report design: Sonideas 2 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement: Findings from the UK-UNHCR-World Bank Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement Research Program Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |   Contents Acknowledgements 7 Executive Summary 9 SECTION 1 Program Background and Structure 19 Program background 19 Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement: Filling a gap in vital research 21 Program inception, governance, and structure 22 SECTION 2 Program Outputs, Outcomes, and Impact 23 Impact on programming and policy  25 SECTION 3 Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas 27 1. Education: improving the learning outcomes for all  27 2. Stronger and more resilient health systems 31 3. Linking humanitarian and national social protection systems 34 4. Measuring labor market impacts and creating jobs 37 5. The intersectionality of gender and displacement  41 6. Improving social cohesion 44 SECTION 4 Contributions to Data and Research Methods 47 SECTION 5 Areas for Future Research 50 ANNEX 1 Lessons on Research Commissioning 53 4   |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement  ANNEX 2 List of Papers, by Research Pillar 54 ANNEX 3 List of Journal Publications 58 ANNEX 4 List of Dissemination Products and Activities, by Research Pillar 60 Bibliography 64 Boxes Box 1: Key Sectoral and Thematic Findings 12 Box 2: Research content, methods, and dissemination 30 Box 3: Research content and methods 31 Box 4: Research content, methods, and dissemination 34 Box 5: Research content, methods, and dissemination 38 Box 6: Research content, methods, and dissemination 42 Box 7: Research content, methods, and dissemination 45 Figures Figure 1 – Growth in FD Research (2016-2022) 20 Figure 2 – Research on Migrants, Refugees and Internally Displaced (Number of publications, October 2016)  21 5 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   © ECHO 6 Acknowledgements  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement  Acknowledgements This report draws on and synthesizes studies and reports prepared for Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement, a research partnership between the UK Government’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO), UNHCR, and the World Bank. The program was led by Paolo Verme, World Bank Lead Economist and Program Manager, who provided technical oversight of the program since its inception in 2016, and Paola Elice, Impact Evaluation Specialist, who managed the program’s impact evaluations, dissemination, research uptake, and the development of the associated training program. The program is indebted to the guidance and partnership provided by its Advisory Committee members, including Nick Leader, Deborah Baglole, Ciara Silke, and Verity McCrum from FCDO, Ewen Macleod, Betsy Lippman and Theresa Beltramo from UNHCR, and Sarah Michael and Nabila Assaf from the World Bank. We thank Soukeyna Kane, Director of the World Bank’s Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Group, for her guidance and championship of the program throughout its implementation. We also thank World Bank Task Team Leaders who led the global studies: Audrey Sacks, Stephen Winkler, Lucia Hanmer, Diana Arango, Manuel Contreras Urbina, Peter Darvas, Dina Abu-Ghaida, Noah Yarrow, Jan von der Goltz, Kirsten Schuettler, Fernando Xavier Montenegro Torres, Mattias Lundberg, and their UNHCR counterparts Anne Burton, Mike Woodman, Rebecca Telford, Cirenia Chavez Villegas, Ziad Ayoubi, and Constanze Quosh. We further thank Olivier Dupriez who led the FCV data collection project. The program extends enormous gratitude to its research partners: American Institutes for Research (AIR); the Consortium of Universities led by Columbia University and comprising Brandeis University, Georgetown University, the American University of Beirut (AUB) and Universidad de los Andes; ODI in the UK; FAFO Research Institute of Norway; and Oxford Policy Management (OPM). We also extend great thanks to the impact evaluation teams, the program’s Young Fellows – Aïssata Coulibaly, Amir Abdul Reda, Ashenafi Belayneh Ayenew, Chinedu Obi, Claudia Noumedem Temgoua, Eugenie Rose Fontep, Florence Nimoh, Francisco Javier Parada Gomez Urquiza, Hundanol Kebede, Ibrahima Sarr, Ismael Issifou, Kevwe Pela, Leila Aghabarari, Merve Derebasoglu, Mrittika Shamsuddin, Nelly El-Mallakh, Nènè Oumou Diallo, Nfamara K Dampha, Soazic Elise Wang Sonne, Solomon Zena Walelign, Sosso Feindouno, Trong-Anh Trinh, Uche Ekhator, Yeshwas Admasu Bogale – and other researchers and practitioners taking part in the research, seminar series, events, training program, and workshops. We also thank Cynthia Delgadillo and Subhash Ghimire for communications support, Dini Djalal for leading the program’s outreach efforts through its closing, including editing this report, and Sonideas for designing the report layout. Funding disclaimer This work is part of the program Building the Evidence on Protracted Forced Displacement: A Multi-Stakeholder Partnership. The program is funded by the UK Government, managed by the World Bank and established in partnership with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). The scope of the program is to expand the global knowledge on forced displacement by funding quality research and disseminating results for the use of practitioners and policy makers. This work does not necessarily reflect the views of the UK Government, the World Bank, or UNHCR. 7 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   © ECHO 8 Executive Summary  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement  Executive Summary A new policy approach to forced displacement Forced displacement has become a phenomenon of tragic proportions. By the end of 2022, more than 108 million people were forcibly displaced, having escaped conflict, violence, or persecution. Low- and middle-income countries absorbed 76% of this displaced population, and often for a protracted period, as two-thirds of the total refugee population remain displaced for many consecutive years.1 A new policy resolve emerged at the height of the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015 and matured in 2019 with the ratification of the Global Compact on Refugees. Viewing forced displacement as a humanitarian and development challenge, the new approach recognized that cooperation and coordination must improve among governments and humanitarian as well as development actors in responding to forced displacement. Anchored on the principle of ‘responsibility sharing’, the Compact constituted the basis to guide this more effective response to forced displacement. But lack of data and evidence impeded the formulation of evidence-based policies and programs to address forced displacement. In 2015, reliable microdata on refugees was scarce and difficult to obtain. For internally displaced persons (IDPs), such data was nearly non-existent. These data gaps limited opportunities for rigorous research, which in turn constrained opportunities for evidence-based policymaking. Filling the knowledge gaps: Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement The Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement research program was conceived and launched in 2016 to fill this critical gap in data and evidence. Inspired by a successful collaboration between the World Bank and UNHCR in the Middle East and North Africa region, the partners forged a formal partnership with financial support from the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO). Tasked to fund quality research on forced displacement and disseminating the results for broader use, the program was structured into six pillars: global studies; operational support (Impact Evaluations); policy support/focus studies; a Young Fellows program; a microdata initiative; and research dissemination and uptake. The research partnership has surpassed expectations. Its findings represent novel evidence that can help governments, development agencies, and humanitarian and civil society organizations improve policy and programming. The studies span several sectors and themes: education, health, social protection, jobs, gender, and social cohesion. At the time of the program’s closing in December 2023, the partnership had marked seven years of robust research produced with a budget of US$16.5 million. 1 Data points in these paragraphs are taken from UNHCR’s Global Trends Report 2022. 9 Executive Summary Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |   Program results and impact Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement achieved three important feats. First, the program improved the availability of quality data, evidence, and methods for forced displacement research in low- and middle-income countries. Second, by informing programs and policy, it has promoted evidence-based programming and policymaking. Finally, the partnership provided a basis for future forced displacement research programs. Improving data, evidence, and methods The program has improved forced displacement research in four ways: by increasing research quantity and quality, strengthening research content, making existing data more accessible, and advancing research methods. Increasing research quantity and quality. Between 2016 and 2023, research on forced displacement skyrocketed. Building the Evidence significantly contributed to this growth with 144 studies. As of early 2024, 40 of the program’s papers have been published or were due for publication in peer-reviewed journals, including Nature Medicine, the American Economic Review, the Journal of Development Economics, and special issues of the Journal of Development Studies, World Development, and the Journal on Migration and Health. These numbers are expected to grow as papers progress through the publishing process. The program provided 24 fellowships for young scholars from middle and low income countries who contributed to expand the scope and breadth of the program. Strengthening research content. The Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement research program, supported by Building the Evidence, generated the first evidence base on the intersectionality between gender and forced displacement. Forced Displacement and Social Cohesion conducted similar ground-breaking work, as did The Big Questions in Forced Displacement and Health, which studied effective healthcare delivery in forced displacement contexts. Making existing data more accessible. Hundreds of representative datasets on displaced and host communities are now available in UNHCR and World Bank microdata libraries, due to efforts promoted by Building the Evidence and including the creation of the Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement (heretofore referred to as the Joint Data Center). Furthermore, the program supported the development of the FCV data collection,2 part of the World Bank microdata library, to host curated datasets related to forced displacement, such as the World Food Program food price data. Consequently, scholars and scores of international organizations have easier access to data for research and programming. Advancing research methods. The program has produced studies that created new methods for forced displacement research, such as papers that proposed the testing of poverty estimation methods for displaced populations.3 UNHCR is now applying this method in the Ukraine, Colombia, and Bangladesh, leading to a better characterization of displaced populations and more targeted programming and advocacy efforts. In addition, the program has fostered the development of a new machine-learning approach for estimating food prices.4 2 As of January 2024, the FCV collection contains 1,341 datasets in its public version and 2,416 in its internal version. 3 Estimating Poverty among Refugee Populations: A Cross-Survey Imputation Exercise for Chad, 2020; Measuring Poverty in Forced Displacement Contexts, 2023; Estimating Poverty for Refugee Populations: Can Cross-Survey Imputation Methods Substitute for Data Scarcity, 2019 4 Publication: Estimating Food Price Inflation from Partial Surveys, 2021 10 Executive Summary  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement  Promoting evidence-based programming and policymaking Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement aims to help governments and humanitarian and development actors design better policies and projects for forcibly displaced populations and host communities. While uptake of the research is expected to continue, the following examples show the influence of the program over the course of its implementation. • ‘Graduation’ programming. Positive findings showing a 20 percent reduction in poverty among participants of the Targeting the Ultra-Poor program in Afghanistan5 led to the program’s expansion to additional provinces. In addition, the evidence informed the State of Economic Inclusion report,6 which influenced the agenda and project pipeline of the World Bank’s Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice. • The fiscal impacts of hosting refugees. Building the Evidence produced one of the first papers quantifying the fiscal impact of hosting refugees in Brazil, and the research findings refuted claims that refugees burden host communities. Instead, the report showed that refugees account for a net fiscal impact of zero on the local economy in Roraima state, as additional government expenditures are offset by the refugees’ tax contribution to the local economy.7 Another study documented the non-formal barriers confronting Venezuelans seeking work, school placements, and social protection, despite formal legislation that grants refugees access to these opportunities.8 This body of evidence proved pivotal in UNCHR’s policy dialogue with the Brazilian government. • Reforming social protection systems. In Iraq, the program contributed to an evidence-driven reform of the Public Distribution System (PDS), a universal food subsidy program, towards a more efficient social protection system based on targeting. An impact evaluation examined the extent to which access to the PDS helped displaced households cope with the adverse effects of displacement.9 A subsequent paper tested the efficacy of the government’s social protection targeting system in identifying vulnerable displaced households.10 Both studies helped the country’s social protection reforms to respond better to the needs of displaced households. • Designing programs that are gender-sensitive and foster social cohesion. The findings of two papers from the Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement research program were featured in the UN Secretary General’s High Level Panel Report on Internal Displacement, which provide a base for gender-sensitive programming in forced displacement contexts. Meanwhile, outcomes of the Forced Displacement and Social Cohesion global study were central to policy discussions and workshops involving practitioners and policymakers in South Sudan, Uganda, and Ethiopia. An evaluation among stakeholders gave the program a rating of 8.8/10, with 69 percent of respondents concurring that research produced under the program had an impact on projects, programs, or policy. 5 No Household Left Behind: Afghanistan Targeting the Ultra Poor Impact Evaluation, 2019 6 The State of Economic Inclusion Report 2021: The Potential to Scale 7 Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil, 2021 8 Integration of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil, 2021 9 Iraq’s Universal Public Distribution System: Utilization and Impacts During Displacement, 2020 10 How Can Vulnerable Internally Displaced Persons Be Transitioned from Humanitarian Assistance to Social Protection ? Evidence from Iraq, 2022 11 Executive Summary Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |   Box 1: Key Sectoral and Thematic Findings The program delivered compelling findings across sectors and themes The education research presented evidence of a frequent disconnect between official national policies of inclusion of displaced learners in education systems and their practical exclusion from educational opportunities and success. The research identified the following factors as key constraints to the implementation of inclusive education policies: the lack of physical resources such as schools or teaching materials, limited education budgets, difficulties adjusting to a new curriculum and language of instruction, and overall limited knowledge on what programs and interventions are effective in promoting inclusion. The health global study highlighted three key gaps in healthcare provision in displacement contexts: mental health services, specialized care, and the prevention and treatment of chronic diseases. Furthermore, the study found that cost, including non-medical costs such as transportation to health facilities, was the defining issue determining healthcare access for both displaced and host households. Cost is determined by factors such as distance to health facilities, education, income, and legal status, for example, official registration and the right to work. The social protection global study presented five recommendations on linking humanitarian assistance for displaced populations with government social protection systems. First, government social protection programs will require adaptations to effectively serve displaced populations, who have distinct needs. Second, provide adequate social protection to hosts, which would help to reduce tensions with displaced populations. Third, improving outcomes should be the reason for linking the two systems (rather than linking for the sake of linking). Fourth, international funding will remain vital. Fifth, instill more transparency and collaboration within and between humanitarian organizations and government. According to the global study on jobs, the overall labor market effects of hosting refugees are modest or even positive in the countries studied. However, some host country workers can be adversely affected as others enjoy new opportunities. Thoughtful policies should mitigate the adverse effects experienced by those losing out, while capitalizing on the gains from allowing displaced workers to engage in labor markets. According to a related impact evaluation, the ability to work presents significant psychosocial benefits to displaced persons that outweigh the benefits of receiving only cash assistance. The gender global study revealed that there are important, and at times unexpected, differences between displaced and non-displaced households along gender dimensions. For example, a study reported that displaced women work more than non-displaced women while earning less, and that displaced households with more female earners exhibit lower poverty risk. The opposite is true for non-displaced households: having more male earners predict a lower poverty risk. According to the global study on social cohesion, displacement can exacerbate existing inequalities and create new inequalities and the potential for conflict, particularly when economic conditions in host communities are already strained. However, inclusive policies and development investments can help mitigate the negative effects of displacement and promote, in the long term, positive economic outcomes for displaced and host communities, and social cohesion. Impact evaluations of graduation programs in Afghanistan, Mozambique, Uganda, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo have built a solid evidence base proving their effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in displacement contexts. 12 Executive Summary  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement  Three areas of recommendation for addressing forced displacement Shared outcomes and insights emerged from the program’s pillars and can be distilled into the following three areas of recommendation: collect and use data to inform policy and programming, promote inclusive approaches while addressing host populations’ needs, and close the gap between policy and practice. Collect and use data to inform policy and programming Effective policymaking requires data on the population being served. Whether it pertains to education, health, social protection, or livelihoods, data on forcibly displaced populations has increased in quantity and quality but remains insufficient in many contexts. An especially big data gap remains for IDPs, who are largely dependent on the capacity and political will of the government to count and support them. A lack of disaggregated socio-economic data can prevent effective targeting of programs. These considerations shaped the following recommendations: • Continue collecting data to improve understanding of displaced and non-displaced household characteristics, and design targeted programming and policy. The protractedness of many displacement situations calls for targeted policies for two populations: displaced persons and their hosts. Some datasets covering both populations are now available in countries such as Jordan, Bangladesh, and Colombia. Data collections funded by the Joint Data Center are ongoing in Honduras, the Central African Republic, and Chad. The datasets reveal the distinct needs of both populations. For example, a study focusing on Syrian adolescent girls in Jordan found that they do not enjoy the same level of mobility as their Jordanian peers.11 As such, programming should enable safe mobility and access to safe spaces, especially for refugee girls. Sustain investments in the collection and analysis of such data, including for internally displaced populations. • Systematically collect data on program costs. In the education sector, existing research lacks any cost- effectiveness analysis that can indicate which programs and interventions may represent more value for money.12 The global study on education recommended collecting adequate data on access to education and learning outcomes for displaced learners, as well as program expenditure data.13 The global study on jobs faced similar challenges in accessing costs data and instead compiled a novel dataset with costs and outcomes data, which led to revelatory findings on the cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness of different jobs support interventions.14 • Conduct more impact evaluations. The program’s pioneering impact evaluations have significantly influenced programs. However, evidence is needed across sectors to identify the programs and interventions that work and the cost-effectiveness of alternative modalities. In forced displacement contexts, where policy can suddenly change, leverage opportunities for rigorous yet ‘quick win’ and inexpensive evaluations. For example, the instructive evaluation of the UNHCR’s cash reintegration assistance program to Afghan returnees15 relied on existing administrative data. Explore the full range of impact evaluation methods to generate crucial evidence on program impacts at reasonable costs and within suitable timelines. 11 How Do Gender Norms Shape Education and Domestic Work Outcomes The Case of Syrian Refugee Adolescents in Jordan, 2021 12 Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Evidence Synthesis and Intervention Map, 2023 13 Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Case Study Summary, 2023 14 Cost-Effectiveness of Jobs Projects in Conflict and Forced Displacement Contexts, 2022 15 More Is Better: Evaluating the Impact of a Variation in Cash Assistance on the Reintegration Outcomes of Returning Afghan Refugees, 2022 13 Executive Summary Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |   Promote inclusive approaches while addressing host populations’ needs Forced displacement can alter social cohesion in the short term by exacerbating existing inequalities via changes in prices, environmental pressure, strained public services, and competition for scarce jobs. However, inclusive policies can promote social cohesion and the self-reliance of displaced populations. These policies include granting the right to work and own and rent property, freedom of movement, and access to social services.16 The following are key areas of recommendation for facilitating inclusive policies. • Bestow legal status, such as the right to work and freedom of movement. Extending legal status to forcibly displaced persons is one way to effectively implement inclusive policies. Granting refugees the right to work can potentially reduce competition with host workers in informal jobs. Granting freedom of movement can reduce competition in labor markets around camps. Legal status also encourages the ability and willingness of the forcibly displaced to access services such as healthcare.17 • Recognize that there are winners and losers in a forced displacement crisis, especially in the short-term, and actively address negative impacts. On average, emerging evidence shows that communities mildly benefit from refugee presence. However, some segments of the host population may be adversely affected by forced displacement. According to a meta-analysis study, when significant, decreases in employment and wages in the host community were more likely to occur in the short-term, in middle-income countries, and affect women, youth, and informal workers.18 Policies are needed to mitigate the negative short-term impacts experienced by those who are losing out. • Promote the positive impact of hosting displaced populations. There is growing evidence of the benefits of hosting displaced groups. According to research in Uganda, host households, particularly those involved in subsistence agriculture, benefit from living close to refugee settlements.19 More research from Uganda reported better service provision in refugee-hosting areas compared to locations that did not host refugees, due to development investments directed to these locations.20 In Ethiopia, a study showed that refugee inflows triggered more demand for livestock products, created secondary occupations, and brought substantial overall benefits to host communities.21 Finally, an impact evaluation in Uganda found that communicating to hosts about the benefits of inclusive approaches (in this case the benefits of Uganda’s aid-sharing policy) can improve support for welcoming policies. • Encourage interaction and inclusion. Restrictive policies are often enacted in the name of protecting host populations and minimizing social tensions. Yet the relationship between prohibitory policies and attitudes towards displaced groups is not proven.22 Instead, more interaction between host and displaced households seem to foster better social cohesion. In Colombia, respondents with less contact with Venezuelans tend to support more restrictive policies.23 In East Africa, a study found a significant positive effect between refugee- host interaction in urban areas and the perception of hosts towards refugees.24 To promote positive interaction between host and displaced communities, the global study on social cohesion recommended employing participatory approaches, trained facilitators, and public messaging.25 16 Social Cohesion and Forced Displacement: A Synthesis of New Research, 2022 17 The Big Questions in Forced Displacement and Health, 2022 18 The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics, 2021 19 How to Cope with a Refugee Shock Evidence from Uganda, 2022 20 Inclusive refugee-hosting can improve local development and prevent public backlash, 2023 21 Livelihood Impacts of Refugees on Host Communities: Evidence from Ethiopia, 2022 22 Attitudes and Policies toward Refugees: Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2022 23 Policy Preferences in Response to Large Migration Inflows, 2022 24 Social Cohesion and Refugee-Host Interactions: Evidence from East Africa, 2022 25 Social Cohesion and Forced Displacement: A Synthesis of New Research, 2022 14 Executive Summary  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement  Close the gap between policy and practice Some host countries are well intended in their policymaking and issue policies that are inclusive of displaced populations. According to the research, however, gaps in policy and implementation remained and impeded forcibly displaced groups from fully accessing opportunities. The strategies below can help close this implementation gap. • Expect barriers to policy implementation, and follow-up policies with practical measures to eliminate the obstacles. Favorable policies are not enough. Even in countries with inclusive policies for forcibly displaced populations, challenges remain in practice that can constrain the ability of displaced individuals to access basic services or earn sufficient income. For example, the global study on education found a frequent disconnect between official policies including displaced learners in national education systems and their practical exclusion from educational opportunities.26 Another study revealed that Venezuelan students in Brazil were often put in lower grades despite the country’s official policies of inclusion towards refugees.27 In Colombia, forcibly displaced persons faced difficulties accessing state social protection systems due to documentation and identification barriers.28 • Communicate inclusive policies to enhance acceptance in host communities. A clear national policy of inclusion is an important starting point. Strong communication of inclusion policies, however, can be the missing link for successful policy implementation. In Colombia, strong messaging about including migrants in national systems helped to increase enrollment of Venezuelan children and adolescents in school.29 In Uganda, the use of a simple ‘informational intervention’ delivered alongside a cash and mentorship program for urban micro-entrepreneurs helped to foster social cohesion between hosts and refugees.30 According to the social protection global study, perceived levels of assistance towards displaced populations were the main determinants of negative sentiments towards displaced groups, rather than the actual levels of assistance received.31 Similarly, experimental evidence from Ethiopia and Uganda showed that host workers’ views of refugees depend on concerns about job competition, regardless of the actual degree of competition.32 • Prioritize addressing cost barriers that deter access to services. High prices of services that individuals need to bear, including informal transportation costs, can deter use of services and curtail outcomes. Across the countries examined for the health global study – Bangladesh, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Jordan - price determined healthcare access for many displaced and some host populations.33 Prioritize addressing cost as a barrier for both displaced and host populations. Informing the path forward While Building the Evidence has transformed forced displacement research, the program identified many knowledge gaps across sectors and themes. Research in this field is only starting to imagine its potential. There are realms of forced displacement research themes that are waiting for more data, examination, and innovations in research methods. The themes include: the macroeconomics of forced displacement; the impact of forced displacement on infrastructure and utilities; the environmental impact of forced displacement; climate change as a cause of displacement; poverty and well-being of displaced populations and hosts, including child poverty and wellbeing; and early childhood development in forced displacement contexts. We must also learn more about: the impact of forced displacement on mental health; long-term impacts; the cost and impact of programs; the return of displaced people to their countries of origin; and the intersectionality of forced displacement and socio-economic dimensions. 26 Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Evidence Synthesis and Intervention Map, 2023 27 Integration of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil, 2021 28 Social protection responses to forced displacement in Colombia, 2022 29 Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Case Study Summary, 2023 30 Can Redistribution Change Policy Views? Aid and Attitudes toward Refugees in Uganda, 2023 31 Linking social protection and humanitarian assistance: A toolkit to support social cohesion in displacement settings, 2022 32 Labor Market Impacts of Forced Displacement – Jobs in Host Communities in Colombia, Ethiopia, Jordan, and Uganda, 2023 33 The Big Questions in Forced Displacement and Health, 2022 15 Executive Summary Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |   Furthermore, studying displaced populations presents unique methodological challenges, such as their high mobility and the possible lack of data needed for program targeting. More innovations in research methods are needed. A catalytic legacy Thanks to Building the Evidence, there is heightened interest in more research and learning on forced displacement. For example, UNHCR has made considerable investments in making data available for public use through their microdata library and in its research capacity. Its roster of economists has multiplied twenty-fold in seven years. Furthermore, forced displacement data for broader research use will continue to grow, due to efforts promoted by the Joint Data Center. The Young Fellows program has expanded the network of researchers working on forced displacement. And more forced displacement research is continuing in the World Bank through other initiatives, such as the PROSPECTS partnership between World Bank, UNHCR, IFC, UNICEF and ILO, and the Rome Jobs and Labor Mobility Center’s Innovation Challenge on Jobs and Migration. Numerous other initiatives are advancing research on forced displacement. Innovations for Poverty Action and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL) have launched the Displaced Livelihoods Initiative to generate new evidence on the impacts of livelihoods programs for displaced and host communities.34 A partnership between the World Bank’s Impact Evaluation unit and the World Food Program (WFP) is producing important new evidence on WFP’s emergency programming.35 In addition, the International Monetary Fund is conducting research on the macroeconomic implications of forced displacement. The 8-week practitioner training program ‘Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement’, conceived and executed with the Joint Data Center, will shift in early 2024 to an e-learning course available for the public at large. More training outreach by the Joint Data Center is to be expected in the future. Changing the narrative Overall, the program has revealed that forced displacement can have positive and negative impacts on host communities. But the negative impacts are not inevitable. The arrival of displaced households spur demand for local agricultural products and host communities have shown acumen to seize new business opportunities. To maximize potential gains and minimize losses from forced displacement, policies should focus on delivering stronger outcomes for both displaced populations and their hosts. Improving the provision of social services in forced displacement contexts was found to improve outcomes for displaced and host populations while enhancing levels of social cohesion. When refugees have the right to work and move to where opportunities are, they can begin to rebuild their lives. In conclusion, the program has demonstrated the need to shift the narrative on the forcibly displaced, and the role that research can play in stimulating this change. We talk about human capital ‘investments’ when we speak of policies and programs for citizens of a country. Yet when talking about displaced populations, we emphasize costs rather than investments. It is time to change this narrative, and data and research can spur this evolution for the benefit of all. 34 https://poverty-action.org/displaced-livelihoods-initiative 35 https://www.wfp.org/impact-evaluation 16 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement 17 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   © DOMINIC CHAVEZ/WORLD BANK 18 Section 1  |  Program Background and Structure   |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement SECTION 1 Program Background and Structure Program background In recent years, forced displacement has become a phenomenon of tragic proportions. Each year, more and more people are forced to leave their homes for safer shelter. A historian writing in the 22nd century may regard the first quarter of the 21st century as a pivotal period for the history of forced displacement, when the number of forcibly displaced persons more than doubled in two decades and exceeded 108 million people at the end of 2022. This means that 1 out of every 74 people on earth has been forcibly displaced, due to protracted or new conflicts, violence, persecution, or severe political and economic crises in many parts of the world. Displacement is rarely a short-term predicament. Many who become displaced remain displaced for years. At the end of 2022, 67 percent of the total refugee population endured protracted displacement, defined by UNHCR as a situation in which 25,000 or more refugees of the same nationality have been in exile for at least five consecutive years in a specified host country. Most displaced communities take refuge in low- and middle-income countries. Media coverage often focuses on refugees fleeing into affluent nations, such as the influx of Syrians and Ukrainians to countries in Europe. However, more than seven out of ten people escaping violence are internally displaced within the borders of their countries or live as refugees in neighboring low- and middle-income countries.36 A new policy resolve started taking shape at the height of the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015. Increasingly, forced displacement was seen as a humanitarian and development challenge. Development and humanitarian practitioners recognized the protracted nature of forced displacement situations and their impact on already struggling low- and middle-income countries. They also recognized the need for more cooperation and coordination between humanitarian actors, development actors, and governments in these contexts. The ratification in 2019 of the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) was an important milestone in support of a shift to an improved forced displacement response, anchored on the principle of ‘responsibility sharing’.37 The World Bank established new financing mechanisms such as the Window for Host Communities and Refugees (WHR)38 under IDA for low-income countries and the Global Concessional Financing Facility (GCFF), designed to support middle-income countries hosting large numbers of refugees.39 In implementing this new policy approach, forced displacement stakeholders, from host governments to donor governments and development and humanitarian organizations, were confronted with the stark lack of data and evidence that could guide policy. Data on displaced populations was hard to find, and existing data was rarely comparable to the data collected on host communities through national household surveys. In some contexts, the absence of comparable data on displaced and host populations made it difficult for humanitarian organizations such as UNCHR to justify continued support for displaced populations beyond the initial emergency phase. 36 Data points in these paragraphs are taken from UNHCR’s Global Trends Report 2022. (UNHCR Global Trends Report 2022, 2023) 37 Global Compact on Refugees, 2018 38 https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/factsheet/2022/10/28/10-things-to-know-about-the-window-for-host-communities-and-refugees 39 https://www.globalcff.org/ 19 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 1  |  Program Background and Structure The challenging data landscape discouraged researchers from studying forced displacement. As a result, economics research on forcibly displaced populations was rare and limited to studies on refugees in high-income countries. In addition, there were no econometrics models that could account for the fundamental differences between migrant populations and forcibly displaced communities. For example, forcibly displaced persons often face a complete loss of assets and documentation, and suffer trauma from escaping to save their lives.40 The enormous gaps in data availability, quality, and methodology constrained opportunities for evidence-based policymaking. Eight years later, the state of data and evidence on forced displacement has significantly improved. Datasets representative of both displaced and host populations are now available, due to efforts by host countries to include refugees and IDPs in national surveys and other data collections41 - efforts supported by initiatives such as the World Bank-UNHCR Joint Data Center42 and the Expert Group on Refugee, IDP and Statelessness Statistics (EGRISS),43 tasked to develop international recommendations on how to produce, compile and disseminate data on displaced populations. Figure 1 below shows the growth in forced displacement research between October 2016 and June 2023. If we consider the number of publications with “Refugees” and “Internally Displaced” words in the titles, keywords and abstracts searched in the main repository of publications in Economics (Econpapers), this growth is estimated between 325 percent and 684 percent. Figure 1 – Growth in FD Research (2016-2022) 6000 5162 5000 4000 3000 Refugees and IDPs (+684%) 2742 Migrants (+325 %) 2000 1586 1000 401 0 2011 2015 Oct.2016 Jun-23 In terms of numbers, publications with the term “Refugees” and “IDPs” in the field of economics grew from 401 papers in October 2016 to 2742 papers in June 2023, amounting to an almost seven-fold increase. 40 The Economics of Forced Displacement: An Introduction, 2016 41 For example, Uganda (Refugee and Host Communities Household Survey 2018), Kenya (Understanding the Socioeconomic Conditions of Refugees in Kenya: Volume A - Kalobeyei Settlement: Results from the 2018 Kalobeyei Socioeconomic Survey), and Nigeria (Profile of Internally Displaced Persons in North-East Nigeria 2018). 42 https://www.jointdatacenter.org/ 43 https://egrisstats.org/ 20 Section 1  |  Program Background and Structure   |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement: Filling a gap in vital research In 2015, high-quality research was insufficient and constrained by the lack of quality microdata. It was difficult to obtain reliable microdata on refugees; such data on IDPs was nearly non-existent (see Figure 2). The World Bank microdata repository did not yet include data on refugees and UNHCR had not yet set up its microdata library. Economics journals published at most one study per year on the impact of refugees on host communities, which was hardly sufficient to draw any lessons for policy.44 Figure 2 – Research on Migrants, Refugees and Internally Displaced (Number of publications, October 2016)  3000 2500 2000 Migrants 1500 Refugees Internally displaced 1000 500 0 Econpapers SSRN The Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement research program was conceived to fill this critical research gap and inform policy. The program was inspired by a successful partnership between the World Bank and UNHCR in the Middle East and North Africa region, the culmination of which was a joint report on the Welfare of Syrian refugees that helped UNHCR better understand the living conditions of Syrian refugees and improve their targeting approaches.45 A formal partnership then emerged between the World Bank and UNHCR, with financial support from the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office (FCDO). Consequently, the program has presented novel evidence to help governments, development institutions, and humanitarian and civil society organizations improve policy and programming on forced displacement. In addition, the program has advanced methodologies and developed new data platforms and resources on forced displacement. 44 The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics, 2021 45 The Welfare of Syrian Refugees: Evidence from Jordan and Lebanon, 2016 21 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 1  |  Program Background and Structure Program inception, governance, and structure Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement developed quickly after its inception. A generous endowment of 10 million GBP from FCDO enabled the program to start operations for the 2016 to 2020 period. The three partners identified eight broad questions and a theory of change for the program, together with its requirements for governance, financial structure, and reporting. An Advisory Committee was established, comprised of representatives from FCDO, UNHCR, and the World Bank. A technical committee to evaluate research proposals and a management team were also put in place. At the World Bank, where the program was administered, the program operated as a window of an existing multi-donor Trust Fund on Forced Displacement, established in 2014.  The target populations were identified as refugees, IDPs, returnees, host populations, and asylum seekers. The target countries would be low- and middle-income countries, with a preference for countries in North and Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, due to the scale of displacement and the scarcity of research in these regions. In 2017, the Advisory Committee structured the program into three main pillars. The first pillar, referred to as Global Studies, supported large multi-country and multi-partner research projects that addressed important questions of global interest in four priority sectors — education, health, social protection, and jobs — and two thematic areas: gender and social cohesion. Supported by an allocation of US$1 million, each sector global study was led by a Task Team Leader from the relevant World Bank Global Practice and followed a set timetable. The second pillar, referred to as Operational support, financed impact evaluations of World Bank or UNHCR-funded projects. These include the impact evaluations of Iraq’s Public Distribution System (PDS), a cash transfer ‘graduation’ program in Afghanistan, UNHCR’s cash reintegration assistance to Afghan refugees returning from Pakistan, and a socioemotional skills intervention in schools in Jordan. The third pillar, entitled Policy Support, summarized and synthetized lessons emerging from the entire research program and pursued additional studies exploring methodology, such as imputation methods to estimate poverty levels of displaced households. The pillar was also leveraged to produce demand-driven research on pressing concerns, such as the spread of COVID-19 in camp settings. Subsequently, the program added three more pillars. A Young Fellows Program was launched to strengthen and expand the network of researchers dedicated to forced displacement. Talented post-doctoral researchers who were nationals of low- and middle-income countries were competitively selected to work with the World Bank and UNHCR on key policy issues. In tandem, a microdata initiative was established, initially with the goal of assisting UNHCR in improving its refugee registration system and in collecting microdata, anonymizing the data, and making it available for public use. In 2019, this initiative became the Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement based in Copenhagen, with initial funding from the Danish government, the United States, and the European Union. Building the Evidence maintained the development of the Fragility, Conflict, and Violence data collection, a live data platform that is part of the World Bank microdata library and regularly updated with curated datasets relevant to forced displacement and fragility, conflict, and violence.46 The sixth pillar, Research Uptake, disseminated research findings, including through blogs, newsletters, a seminar series, workshops, and a training program entitled ‘Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement, which will be available for public use as a self-paced online learning course. 46 https://microdata.worldbank.org/index.php/collections/FCV 22 Section 2  |  Program Outputs, Outcomes, and Impact   |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement SECTION 2 Program Outputs, Outcomes, and Impact By the time of the program’s closing in December 2023, Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement had accomplished, with a budget of US$16.5 million, seven years of research and 144 distinct papers spanning the themes and geographic areas illustrated in the below table. Theme Global Europe & Latin Middle South Sub- Total Central America & East & Asia & Saharan Asia Caribbean North East Asia Africa Africa Education 2 1 3 1 4 11 Health 5 2 1 3 3 14 Jobs/Livelihoods/Labor 3 1 3 4 9 20 Market Impacts Social Protection 7 1 1 4 1 1 15 Social Cohesion 7 9 7 4 1 12 40 Gender 4 1 4 14 23 Data/Methods 7 5 1 5 18 Other 1 1 1 3 Total 36 11 15 21 12 49 144 Research supported by the program was published in peer-reviewed journals, including Nature Medicine, World Development, the Journal of Development Studies, the Journal on Migration and Health, the Journal of Health Economics, the American Economic Review, the Journal of Development Economics, Defense and Peace Economics, Forced Migration Review, the Middle East Development Journal, the Oxford Review of Economic Policy, the Journal of Population Economics, and medRxiv. As of January 2024, 40 articles have been published or accepted for publication. Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement also supported the publication of special issues on forced displacement, including in World Development, the Journal of Development Studies, and the Journal on Migration and Health. The time necessary to publish an article in refereed journals varies between a few months and a few years, and most of the studies under the program were completed between 2020 and 2022. As such, the number of program publications in refereed journals will continue to grow in the coming years. 23 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 2  |  Program Outputs, Outcomes, and Impact © AMZA DAVID / DRC The research findings were promoted through multiple channels, from workshops to training programs. An event in Geneva co-hosted by the World Bank and UNHCR convened humanitarian organizations, from the International Rescue Committee to the World Food Program, to discuss the translation of research into action. A workshop in Ethiopia co- hosted by the Ethiopia Refugees and Returnees Service brought together representatives from government ministries, UN agencies, and think-tanks.47 The organizers received requests for follow-up, including from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development. From September 2023 to November 2023, the 8-week training program Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement received high levels of interest and participation from development institutions, humanitarian organizations, host and donor governments, and think tanks. The research has also provided the foundation for high-level discussions. Two background papers produced by the Gendered Dimensions of Forced Displacement program were featured in the UN Secretary General’s High Level Panel Report on Internal Displacement. The outcomes of the Forced Displacement and Social Cohesion global study were central to policy discussions with policymakers in South Sudan, Uganda, and Ethiopia. 47 https://www.worldbank.org/en/events/2023/06/02/ethiopia-forced-displacement-research-and-policy-workshop 24 Section 2  |  Program Outputs, Outcomes, and Impact   |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement Impact on programming and policy  Beyond producing evidence, at the heart of Building the Evidence is the mission to better inform governments as well as humanitarian and development organizations in designing policies, projects, and interventions that are fit for purpose in forced displacement contexts. The program has made strides in shaping policies, and its impact will continue to grow. Consider the findings from the impact evaluation of a government program in Afghanistan. According to the evaluation results, households participating in the Targeting the Ultra Poor (TUP) Graduation Program sustained significant and large improvements in a range of indicators, including consumption, poverty, and women’s labor market participation, one year after the program ended and two years after the asset transfer. The evaluation also found that the program was cost-effective, with an estimated internal rate of return of 26 percent. The first impact evaluation of a TUP program in a conflict setting, the study showed that consumptions gains were even larger than those found for TUP programs in stable settings. 48 The follow-up paper also found that results are sustained up to 5 years after the asset transfer for consumption, asset ownership, market work participation, financial inclusion, children’s school enrollment, and women’s psychological wellbeing and empowerment. Collected shortly prior to the 2021 regime change, these results are remarkable considering the multiple shocks endured by households: the COVID-19 pandemic, droughts, and escalating levels of violence.49 As a result of the positive and rigorous findings from the first evaluation, more resources were allocated to scale up the program in additional provinces in Afghanistan.50 Subsequent impact evaluations of graduation programs in Mozambique, Nigeria, DRC, and Uganda amplify the program’s effectiveness in fragile and displacement contexts. The findings also informed the flagship report of the World Bank’s Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice, The State of Economic Inclusion,51 which influenced the agenda and project pipeline of the Global Practice. In Iraq, research supported by the program enabled the government to take a data-driven approach to reforming the social protection sector and the Public Distribution System (PDS). Instituted in 1990 following sanctions that led to food shortages, the PDS is one of the world’s largest in-kind food distribution programs. Leveraging existing data and funding from the program to conduct an impact evaluation, the World Bank’s Poverty and Equity Global Practice examined the extent to which access to the PDS helped displaced households cope with the adverse effects of displacement.52 This hard evidence helped policymakers to envision a more targeted program that considered the specific needs of displaced populations. To evaluate the prospect of including displaced households in the national targeting system, another study in Iraq investigated the overlap between government and humanitarian social protection targeting systems. According to the findings, a trade-off exists between cost and levels of accuracy that can be achieved by alternative targeting models.53 Since its launch, the study has been discussed with key humanitarian agencies in the country. Research produced under the Policy Support pillar influenced policymaking. In Brazil, two studies were pivotal during UNHCR’s dialogue with the government and informed the drafting of a new policy on forced displacement. The constant struggles faced by Venezuelan refugees in Brazil formed the main narrative of the research, which constituted the first set of available hard evidence on a little-known population. One study documented the non-formal barriers confronting displaced persons while seeking work, school placements, and social protection, despite formal legislation that grants them access to jobs, education, and social protection in Brazil.54 Another study refuted repeated claims that refugees burden host communities, instead presenting evidence that refugees account for a net impact of zero on the local economy, because government expenditures are offset by their contribution of fiscal income.55 The studies’ influence on UNHCR and World Bank programs in Brazil led to a third study, carried out independently of Building the Evidence. 56 48 No Household Left Behind: Afghanistan Targeting the Ultra Poor Impact Evaluation, 2019 49 The Enduring Impacts of a Big Push during Multiple Crises: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan, 2023 50 https://news.trust.org/item/20190613144738-65dnb/ 51 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/socialprotectionandjobs/publication/the-state-of-economic-inclusion-report-2021-the-potential-to-scale 52 Iraq’s Universal Public Distribution System: Utilization and Impacts During Displacement, 2020 53 How Can Vulnerable Internally Displaced Persons Be Transitioned from Humanitarian Assistance to Social Protection ? Evidence from Iraq, 2022 54 Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil, 2021 55 Integration of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil, 2021 56 The Labor Market Impacts of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil, 2022 25 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 2  |  Program Outputs, Outcomes, and Impact The global studies also impacted projects. Most of the global studies were managed by World Bank staff in the respective Global Practices (Health, Nutrition & Population; Education; Social Protection and Jobs; Social Sustainability and Inclusion). As they also manage World Bank projects, their engagement in the research translates into more informed programs and projects. For example, during the World Bank’s consultations with the government of Tajikistan about a possible influx of Afghan refugees in 2021, lessons from the social cohesion global study were central to the discussions. Similarly, the findings of the education global study are now being considered in the development of new education projects in West Africa. The work of the 24 Young Fellows also directly informed World Bank and UNHCR projects. The impact of this program materialized beyond completed research projects. Many of the fellows are now working with World Bank, UNHCR, or other UN agencies and continue to inform policy and projects through high quality analytics. Research supported by Building the Evidence has been an important data source for several high-level World Bank and UNHCR reports. These include the World Bank’s flagship publication the 2023 World Development Report on Migrants, Refugees, and Societies and UNHCR’s flagship report People Forced to Flee: History, Change, and Challenges with a background paper on impact evaluations.57 Research initiated by the program built an appetite for data and evidence-driven programming and policymaking. In 2016, UNHCR had only one Senior Economist. By September 2023, UNHCR had twenty economists monitoring the collection of quality forced displacement data, identifying questions of interest to project teams, and bolstering research on refugees and other populations of concern overall. Lastly, the program’s impact evaluations mark a milestone in the field of forced displacement programming. Programs can be implemented year after year and increase in scale, with their ‘outputs’ clearly visible. Examples of outputs can include, for example, the construction of health and education facilities, or women and girls’ safe spaces in refugee camps. But their impact on people’s lives and prospects remains unknown. Impact evaluations confirm which interventions aimed at improving the same outcome are most effective and cost-effective and whether there are unintended negative impacts, and if outcomes for the target groups would be different in the absence of a program. The impact evaluations undertaken under the research program were among the first in the field of forced displacement. An evaluation among stakeholders gave Building the Evidence a rating of 8.8/10, with 69 percent of respondents concurring that research produced under the program had an impact on projects, programs, or policy. 57 Impact Evaluations in Forced Displacement Contexts: A Guide for Practitioners, 2021 26 Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement SECTION 3 Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas A comprehensive study of forced displacement would require examinations of many sectors and thematic areas. The focus areas prioritized by Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement – education, health, social protection, jobs, gender, and social cohesion - encompass only a snapshot of the gamut of research that should be pursued. The following sections describe the research conducted under each sector or theme, and its key findings. 1. Education: improving the learning outcomes for all  Within the World Bank, the education global study was led by the Education Global Practice, which selected through a competitive tender the American Institutes for Research (AIR) to conduct the research. The study sought to respond to the following research question: How can education systems be prepared and strengthened to become inclusive and resilient, and thus expand and deliver education services to both displaced and host-country children and youth in the short and long term of a crisis? The research was organized in two phases. The first phase included a rigorous evidence synthesis and intervention mapping to systematically examine the available evidence and review the range of programs implemented in forced displacement contexts.58 The second phase included conducting four country case studies (in Chad,59 Colombia,60 Pakistan, and Sudan) to examine the inclusion of displaced students in national education systems and a case study analyzing education expenditures in Jordan.61 The findings of the case studies were comparatively analyzed in a summary report.62 The evidence synthesis identified and reviewed 32 experimental and quasi-experimental studies, 14 studies with cost information, and 202 qualitative studies completed since 2015. The intervention map identified 194 education programs implemented by governments, international agencies, and non-governmental organizations in 22 countries impacted by forced displacement. 58 Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Evidence Synthesis and Intervention Map, 2023 59 Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Chad Case Study, 2023 60 Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Colombia Case Study, 2023 61 Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Jordan Case Study, 2023 62 Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Case Study Summary, 2023 27 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas Findings from the evidence synthesis and intervention mapping The results of the evidence synthesis were grouped into two categories: findings from existing evidence, and findings on evidence gaps. From the existing evidence, the research presented four findings. First, there is a disconnect between policy and practice. A considerable body of qualitative research shows that official policies of inclusion for refugee students often contrast with their practical and sociocultural exclusion from educational opportunities. The second finding presents the potential of Socio-Emotional Learning (SEL) programs. Applying a meta-analysis of effect sizes for SEL programs, researchers found that the programs have the potential to reduce depression and post-traumatic stress disorder. The third finding uncovers the potential of Technology-in-Education programs. The meta-analysis of these programs shows positive effects on learning outcomes, particularly for out-of-school children, although limited access to technology makes these programs hard to access for displaced children. Finally, community-based education offers promise in Afghanistan. Community-based education in Afghanistan may be cost-effective in improving access to education and learning outcomes for internally displaced children. It also appears to be cost-effective to transfer the implementation of community-based education from international NGOs to local governments. From the evidence gaps, the research also presented four findings. First, most current research focuses on education interventions that run parallel to national education systems rather than through them, despite the policy emphasis on including refugees and displaced learners in national systems. Second, there is limited evidence on the effectiveness of government-supported programs for displaced learners. This does not necessarily mean that such programs or policies are ineffective; it means they have not yet been studied in a rigorous manner. Third, most studies do not clearly identify whether interventions serve refugees, IDPs, returnees, host communities, or some combination of these groups. Fourth, evidence of the cost-effectiveness of education programs in forced displacement contexts is scant. Comparative findings from the country-level case studies The second phase of the research consisted of four country-level case studies in Colombia, Chad, Sudan, and Pakistan to examine the inclusion of displaced populations in national education systems. In Jordan, a costing analysis case study was conducted. The case studies provided a wealth of insights. The contexts of the five studies varied widely, and some countries such as Colombia were much better off in terms of resources for education. However, important similarities across contexts indicate the challenges many countries face in including displaced learners into national education systems. First, each of the four case studies demonstrated the importance of official national policies as a foundation for educational inclusion. For example, the efforts of the Colombian government to institutionalize its commitment to refugee education through establishing national policies, combined with its relatively high education budget (as a percentage of GDP), catalyzed efforts to include refugees in education throughout the country. All actors - local and international - were required to comply with official policy. On the other hand, the lack of a framework in Chad for policies beyond the national level may have deprioritized the issue compared to other sectors in terms of funding and administrative efforts. Beyond concrete policies, the countries where the Ministry of Education demonstrated leadership and high involvement in refugee education, as well as close collaboration between the Ministry and international organizations, were best equipped to provide education to displaced populations. 28 Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement There can also be a high degree of fragmentation and differentiation in policy implementation across and within provinces and populations, as found in Chad, due to inconsistent funding and guidance on how to implement inclusion policies at the provincial and local level. Secondly, government resources and services are often insufficient to support educational inclusion. Many of these challenges also extend to host communities. The lack of space in secondary schools in Chad, Pakistan, and Sudan was found to be a barrier to enrollment that, in turn, becomes a barrier to inclusion. Curriculum implementation also posed challenges. Chad, Pakistan, and Sudan highlighted the tension between the administrative importance of using the host-country curriculum to avoid creating parallel education systems, and the difficulties—in terms of content, language, and the cultural identity attached to curricula—of doing so. At the time of the data collection, discussion in Sudan of transitioning Ethiopian refugees to the Sudanese curriculum - taught in Arabic - was at the ministerial level. National-level respondents tended to encourage all students to use the host-country curriculum. Teachers, parents, and students, however, were more likely to point out the numerous challenges associated with refugee learners adapting to a new curriculum. Language of instruction for refugee learners was an issue in Chad, Pakistan, and Sudan. Since 2019, Afghan refugees in Pakistan were taught the host country curriculum in the Urdu language. In interviews, refugee parents expressed their concerns about their inability to support learning at home, while refugee teachers reported their lack of confidence to teach in Urdu. The issue of language of instruction is critical as extensive research underscores the importance of instruction in the mother tongue (or a language the child speaks and understands well) for quality learning outcomes at all levels in low- and middle-income countries (Evans and Acosta, 2021). Lastly, budget data suggest that education financing likely contributed to Colombia’s relative success in integrating refugees into national education systems. In Chad, political will to include refugees in national education systems is countered by insufficient funding for the education sector, which hovers at 2.4 percent of GDP, and a struggling national education system. Therefore, the quality of education provision is generally weak for both refugee and Chadian learners. Similarly, the Jordan costing analysis case study found that Jordan’s education expenditure (3% of GDP) is higher than other countries in the region, such as Lebanon, but lower than other higher middle-income countries. A higher education budget would likely facilitate the inclusion of refugees in the national education system. In Sudan, challenges emerged during the transition to more inclusive education; for example, related to the harmonization of teachers’ salaries that led to pay that is lower than the compensation received from the humanitarian sector. This created dissatisfaction and attrition among teachers and concerns among parents that the lower pay may affect education quality. © TANVIR MURAD TOPU / WORLD BANK 29 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas Box 2: Research content, methods, and dissemination Phase I of the global study on education consisted of an evidence synthesis and intervention mapping, titled Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Evidence Synthesis and Intervention Map. Building on the results of Phase I, Phase II of the research included five case studies in Chad, Colombia, Jordan, Pakistan, and Sudan – selected because each country hosts at least 25,000 refugees and represents different regions, income levels, and levels of fragility, conflict, or violence. Qualitative methods, including desk reviews, key informant interviews (KIIs), stakeholder mapping, and focus group discussions (FGDs), were employed to conduct primary data collection, while the costing analyses relied on available secondary data. In each country, analysis took place at three levels: macro- or policy level, meso- or institutional level, and micro- or school level. The following reports were produced in Phase II: • Case Study from Chad • Case Study from Colombia • Case Study from Jordan • Case study of Pakistan (unpublished) • Case study of Sudan (unpublished) • Costing analysis for Jordan • Summary report of the case studies, including a comparative analysis of the country case studies Dissemination efforts included participation in several events, including the Translating Evidence into Action workshop in Geneva and the Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement training program, and the publication of two blogs. Findings from an education impact evaluation As part of the Operational Support pillar of the program, the World Bank Education Global Practice worked closely with the Ministry of Education of Jordan to conduct an impact evaluation of a Socio-Emotional Learning (SEL) intervention called Providing Opportunities with Education for Refugees and Jordanians (‘POWER-J’), which was piloted with grade 7 students in 178 public schools. Interest for piloting a SEL intervention in Jordan was spurred by national and multi-country surveys that showed disorderly student behavior in many math lessons and bullying in classrooms that have a high share of refugees. The findings of the impact evaluation, carried out as a randomized controlled trial in 89 schools, were positive. The POWER-J program proved effective in promoting better classroom participation and behaviors; helping students regulate their emotions and deal with stress; fostering students’ growth mindset; and reducing hostile attribution bias. Overall, the evaluation results showed high potential for the intervention. Accommodating POWER-J during regular school hours and integrating it into the existing curriculum would be key for a cost-effective scale-up. 63 63 https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/videos/fcv/2023/nov/2023114-WB-Jordan-Policy-Brief.pdf. The impact evaluation paper is forthcoming in the World Bank Policy Research Working Papers series. 30 Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement 2. Stronger and more resilient health systems Managed by the World Bank’s Health, Nutrition, and Population Global Practice and undertaken by a consortium of universities led by Columbia University, the global study on health – entitled the Big Questions in Forced Displacement and Health project – sought to provide evidence on effective healthcare delivery in settings of protracted displacement.64 The research surveyed the needs of both displaced populations and host communities beyond the acute phase of the emergency response, the processes carried out by best practice examples, and the most cost-efficient mechanisms for financing health services in situations of forced displacement. Box 3: Research content and methods Utilizing a mixed methods approach in four countries, the Big Questions in Forced Displacement research was carried out by Columbia University’s Program on Forced Migration and Health, the Global Health Institute at the American University of Beirut, the Schneider Institutes for Health Policy at the Heller School of Social Policy and Management at Brandeis University, Georgetown University, and the School of Government at Universidad de los Andes. The study surveyed Bangladesh, Colombia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Jordan, to reflect a diversity of contexts, geographic regions, and differing national policies towards refugees and IDPs. Each study included a desk-based literature review, analysis of epidemiologic and demographic datasets from secondary sources, focus group discussions or phone-based in-depth interviews with host and displaced community members, health facility assessments of purposively sampled health facilities (where feasible), and semi-structured key informant interviews. The output included the development of research tools and training materials, guidance to underpin qualitative analysis, defining composite health services indicators, and building a tool to calculate those indicators. In addition to a commentary in Nature Medicine about lessons learnt from past epidemics applicable to humanitarian settings, the consortium sponsored a Special Issue on Forced Displacement and Health, forthcoming in the Journal on Migration and Health. Key findings and policy recommendations The research provided valuable lessons on how to better prepare for the challenges and opportunities that can arise in protracted displacement contexts. The following are the study’s findings and policy recommendations. Prioritize planning and integration into national health systems for protracted crises. Humanitarian health practitioners, governments, and international donors should anticipate that a displacement crisis may be prolonged and require sustainable, long-term solutions. Once the immediate imperative to save lives has passed, start planning for longer-term integration. An integrated approach can be beneficial across the board in terms of planning and sustainability, cost effectiveness, and continuity of care. Not every situation will lend itself to an integrated approach. Where the government is a party to conflict, humanitarian organizations remain vital. State fragility can also limit the prospects for integration, as weak state institutions and poor resources and security can undermine trust and access to healthcare. 64 The Big Questions in Forced Displacement and Health, 2022 31 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas Yet interventions that strengthen health systems have proven effective even in fragile settings. Analyze the prospects for an integrated approach early in any crisis and on an ongoing basis, and do so with close consultation, communication, and coordination with national actors, including government. Humanitarian leadership is critical. Where comparable data is available, understand health needs in both host and displaced populations. To better understand users’ needs, planning requires the availability of accurate and timely demographic and epidemiologic data. Some demographic groups such as women, children, the elderly, the disabled, and LGBTQ groups are more vulnerable during displacement. Comprehensive demographic and epidemiologic data that is disaggregated by migration status or a reasonable proxy (i.e. nationality, administrative area, etc., depending on context) is rare. There is even less data that allows intersectional analyses for additionally vulnerable groups and for host communities. Colombia’s national data systems and registries, which facilitate a variety of comparisons among host and displaced populations, are an exception. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, population-wide datasets were incomplete and largely did not differentiate between host and displaced populations. Jordan illustrates how international and national resources can be combined and leveraged, with the national Department of Statistics adapting standard tools to collect data that distinguishes camp and non-camp settings. Bangladesh presented a more classic, fragmented approach with fully separate data sources for host and displaced populations, curtailing the visibility of Rohingya in national datasets, which creates challenges for longitudinal comparisons and comparisons with the host population.   Overall, more documentation is needed on the needs of displaced and host populations, particularly those living in insecure areas where data collection is often nonexistent. Of note are the enormous data gaps for IDPs, who are largely dependent on the capacity and political will of the government to count and support them. Prioritize addressing cost as a barrier for both displaced and host populations. In all four countries studied, cost remained the defining issue determining healthcare access, and they include out-of-pocket medical and direct nonmedical costs, such as the cost of transportation to seek care. Even in countries with free healthcare, the unavailability of healthcare services drove displaced and host populations to care that incurred out-of-pocket spending. Cost is connected to many factors, among them the distance to health facilities; education and income; and legal status, such as official registration and the right to work. Efforts to reduce costs or make services free to users must consider these overlapping drivers, be integrated with comprehensive approaches, and include efforts directed towards improving quality of care – real and perceived – across public, private, and informal sectors. Better long-term planning, supported by more sustained donor funding, might also yield savings. To reduce costs, enable better training schemes and promote cost-effective approaches, such as vaccines, preventive medicine, and primary care.  Strengthen partnerships with donors. Donor financing arrangements can be crucial in facilitating greater integration of health services for both host and displaced communities. In Jordan, refugee health was integral to the multisectoral action plan to address the refugee crisis. Donor contributions were pooled to support the host country response, and multilateral and some bilateral donors focused their support on services provided within national healthcare systems, with part of the funds allocated to strengthen the country’s overall healthcare system. However, across all four countries studied, shifting donor priorities, short-term funding cycles, and a continual misalignment between host government needs and international funding create challenges for integration. Invariably, host governments shoulder a significant part of the costs of caring for displaced populations. In Colombia, this cost burden also fell on specific healthcare facilities in areas with large numbers of displaced persons. Innovations around demand-side arrangements (i.e. voucher programs) have been implemented, with varying results. Subsidies for displaced populations to use national health services can encourage their inclusion, but such programs must avoid overwhelming health service capacity. Promoting high-quality services through incentives such as performance-based financing has shown efficacy in low- and middle-income settings, although caveats remain. Address major gaps in managing chronic disease, specialized care, and mental health.  While gaps were identified across all types of health needs, all four country studies highlighted three major gaps – chronic disease management, specialized care, and mental health services – for which few large-scale, effective interventions have been implemented for host and displaced populations. Further scaling of effective interventions is required, for which an integrated approach is necessary. 32 Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement Strategies are required to address health gaps in a way that reinforces existing health systems and avoids diverting resources away from preventive and primary health services. The key challenge for specialized services is financing and sustaining their availability, including investment in strengthening referral pathways, to enable access to different levels of care. More research is required to verify which mental health interventions are effective and feasible at scale for both displaced and host populations. Pay particular attention to reaching vulnerable groups. Address social and environmental determinants of health and legal status. Health is connected to social and environmental factors that impact whether a person can live a healthy life. These social determinants are shaped by structural barriers related to gender, sexuality, and age. For example, displaced women have differential access to livelihoods, food security, and safety, which creates a unique set of health vulnerabilities. Investments in addressing these factors are foundational to preventive care that can decrease the burden on health systems and financing. Legal status is also critical in ensuring the ability and willingness to access health services. The stakes associated with documentation are amplified as national governments become more involved in delivering healthcare. Tensions between protection needs and healthcare needs may remain, and it is important to be cognizant of who is collecting data and for what purpose. Leverage human capital. Large arrivals of forcibly displaced people can strain healthcare capacity across rural and urban settings. Leveraging human capital can fill service delivery gaps for both displaced and host populations. Opportunities for displaced populations vary significantly by gender and profession. In Bangladesh, a mental health and psychosocial support program utilized a task shifting approach to grow a diverse health workforce linking community- and facility- based care to provide outreach and service provision. Effective task shifting requires access to appropriate on-the-job training and sustained supportive supervision. Engaging the displaced health workforce can also strengthen host health systems and address language differences and discrimination of displaced populations. However, permission to work, which can vary by gender, and formal recognition of foreign medical licensure remain barriers to leveraging displaced groups. Policy and advocacy efforts should be mindful of entrenched interests, such as national professional associations, and explore options to fill healthcare staff shortages in host countries, even if only to provide services to other displaced persons. It is essential to think about the health and well-being of refugees and displaced populations in tandem with host populations. A singular or uniform approach cannot accommodate the diversity of political contexts and capacity constraints. However, varied and innovative ways to advance an integrated approach to healthcare delivery present valuable lessons about preparing for the challenges and opportunities in displacement contexts. Other health-related studies Several papers under the Operational and Policy Support Pillars complemented the global health study. The Psychosocial Value of Employment: Evidence from a Refugee Camp examined the importance of employment to one’s well-being for reasons beyond income, by observing 745 individuals living in refugee camps in Bangladesh. The study consisted of a field experiment with three arms - a control arm, a weekly cash arm, and an employment arm of equal value. The research found that employment raises psychosocial well-being substantially more than cash alone, and 66 percent of the employed are willing to forgo cash payments to continue working temporarily for free.65 Delivering a first rigorous measurement on the psychosocial benefits of employment, the research can be used to advocate for improved labor market policies for refugees in countries where their right to work is limited. Hardly any evidence exists on the effects of mental illness on refugee labor market outcomes. To study refugee mental health, research in Australia examined longitudinal survey data to exploit the variations in traumatic refugee experiences interacted with post-resettlement time periods. According to the findings, worse mental health reduces the probability of employment by 14.1 percent and of income by 26.8 percent. There is also evidence that refugees’ mental 65 The Psychosocial Value of Employment: Evidence from a Refugee Camp, 2022 33 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas illness adversely impacts their children’s mental health and educational performance, particularly among newly arrived refugees and those without social networks. 66 A study in Tanzania looked at the long-term health impacts of living in proximity to a refugee settlement on host households and found negative intergenerational effects on children’s health. Children born to parents living closer to refugee camps during early childhood have lower heights for their age and are more likely to be stunted.67 This is one of the few studies examining the long-term impacts of displacement on host populations – a research area that merits further investigation. 3. Linking humanitarian and national social protection systems In an emergency or a protracted displacement situation, how can humanitarian and national social protection systems be optimally linked to meet the needs of displaced and host communities? Commissioned by the World Bank Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice to the ODI in the UK, the global study on social protection assessed the potential to link humanitarian displacement responses with national social protection systems. Box 4: Research content, methods, and dissemination Led by ODI, the research on social protection included both desk and primary mixed-methods research in three countries. Covering academic and grey literature published between 2010 to 2019, the global literature review drew on evidence from 46 countries with large-scale displacement situations that received international humanitarian assistance.68 The global microdata review - drawing from 18 survey datasets from 13 countries, available in UNHCR and World Bank’s microdata libraries - explored how microdata can illustrate social protection and humanitarian transfers coverage of displaced and host populations.69 For the mixed methods research, primary data gathering was carried out by the Centre for Applied Social Sciences Research and Training (CASS-RT) in Cameroon, the School of Government at the University of Los Andes in Colombia, and the National Centre for Social Research (EKKE) in Greece. Six study sites were selected to capture different contexts of displacement and responses: Athens and Ioannina in Greece, Bogotá/ Cúcuta in Colombia, and the Far North/East in Cameroon. A survey of approximately 1,500 displaced and host community members was conducted in each country, alongside focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. The country findings were presented in reports on Cameroon,70 Colombia 71 and Greece. 72 Thematic papers on three key themes - social cohesion, meeting basic needs and social protection delivery - were also published, accompanied by toolkits for policymakers and practitioners. 66 Do Refugees with Better Mental Health Better Integrate ? Evidence from the Building a New Life in Australia Longitudinal Survey, 2022 67 Intergenerational Impact of Population Shocks on Children’s Health: Evidence from the 1993-2001 Refugee Crisis in Tanzania, 2019 68 Social protection and forcibly displaced people: a literature review, 2021 69 What can existing microdata tell us about transfer receipt among host and displaced populations?, 2022 70 Integrating assistance to the displaced into a social protection system in Cameroon. An ideal, but in whose interests?, 2022 71 Social protection responses to forced displacement in Colombia, 2022 72 Humanitarian assistance and social protection responses to the forcibly displaced in Greece, 2022 34 Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement Key findings from a global literature and microdata review The review of existing research, covering 46 countries with large-scale displacement, was revelatory: there is very limited literature on the inclusion of forcibly displaced persons in state social protection systems. Instead, according to the research, there is a clear divide between social protection rights outlined in international frameworks and those enjoyed in practice by refugees and IDPs. Refugees were not fully included in state social protection systems in any of the countries reviewed. The few cases where inclusion in social assistance was documented related mainly to countries receiving funding for state social assistance schemes through the World Bank’s IDA18 Refugee Sub-Window, which mandated refugee inclusion in those schemes. Meanwhile, refugees’ access to social insurance is often compromised by the legal and practical barriers in accessing the formal labor market. In the case of IDPs, they were explicitly included in social assistance programs in Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Iraq, Nigeria, and Ukraine. However, in practice, they often faced barriers accessing such assistance. Following the crisis in Syria, humanitarian and development organizations increased their efforts to align and integrate their assistance with state social protection systems. However, apart from Turkey, the decision-making process in each context is not documented. There is also insufficient evidence on the impacts of different approaches to linking assistance for displaced persons with social protection systems. Much more research is required to build an evidence base on the use of social protection systems in displacement responses and the ensuing outcomes. The evidence base, currently focused on the Middle East, would also benefit from more geographically diverse data collection. To enable reliable comparisons, the global review of existing microdata also urged for standardization of transfer modules and questions across surveys in displacement settings. Policy implications from the country case studies The case studies presented several findings. In Cameroon, the conditionality of international financing for nascent social protection schemes provided an incentive to include displaced people. However, state systems require more time to become the main vehicle for assisting displaced populations. Currently, there are insufficient incentives for the government to take on responsibility for the welfare of displaced households. Humanitarian agencies also lack incentives to hand over responsibility and the associated resources to the government. Equalizing transfer values of humanitarian assistance with social protection transfers may feel like a ‘quick win’ for international actors wanting to advance integration. However, such alignment can easily serve as a distraction from the more nuanced and difficult work needed to develop a comprehensive safety net system for displaced and host populations alike. In Colombia, the government rather than international agencies generally provided assistance to internally displaced and Venezuelan populations surveyed in the study, conducted in early 2021.73 IDPs received preferential access to state assistance under the 2011 Victims’ Law, while Venezuelans’ access was patchier and primarily linked to programming developed during the Covid-19 pandemic.74 According to the study, assistance helped meet basic needs, but an improved program design could better address the long-term needs of displaced populations, including boosting their longer-term economic agency. The research further revealed the potential for assistance to influence social cohesion. International funding can enable the government to realize its progressive displacement response without compromising service provision for citizens. The research suggested that social discontent can be exacerbated if citizens perceive that government resources are being diverted away from vulnerable citizens to the displacement response. 73 Shortly after the survey was conducted, the government announced the Temporary Protection Status, a ten-year residence permit designed to facilitate Venezuelans’ access to identification documents, healthcare, education, formal employment, and financial inclusion. While highlighted in the study as a very positive step, the impact of the policy on social protection access could not be assessed at the time of the research. 74 In the survey undertaken as part of the study in 2021 of vulnerable neighbourhoods in Bogota and Cúcuta, 76 percent of IDPs, 62 percent of host households, and 48 percent of Venezuelans had benefited from at least one cash or in-kind transfer in the previous year. Some 94 percent of IDPs, 93 percent of hosts and 78 percent of Venezuelans reported that the transfer(s) were from government programs. 35 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas In Greece, displaced populations have access to assistance through two separate systems. The first is humanitarian assistance funded by the European Union, and it covers only basic survival needs. The second option is the national social welfare system, which refugees can, in principle, apply for after they gain refugee status. However, the research reported coverage gaps for displaced persons during their status transition from asylum seekers to refugees. After obtaining refugee status, they immediately stop receiving humanitarian financial assistance, lose access to accommodation, and may remain without legal documents for several months. Furthermore, access to social protection is subject to strict eligibility criteria and complicated administrative requirements such as past tax returns and, in most cases, a requirement to have legally resided in Greece for the past five years. These requirements prevent many refugees from accessing support from the social welfare system. Take note of underlying political factors, the study suggested. Policymakers in Athens often expressed their wish to make Greece unattractive to refugees. When considering different approaches to linking with social protection systems, consider the positions of governments on hosting refugees. Cross-project takeaways and policy recommendations The following five take-aways emerged from the social protection global study: • Displaced populations often have distinct needs, and they will do so for a long time after having been displaced. Adaptations to program design and delivery, as well as additional support, are needed to effectively serve displaced people through social protection systems. • Hosts often lack access to assistance too. Confronted with this challenge, policymakers may assume that reducing support to displaced populations will stave discontent and strengthen social cohesion. This assumption is unfounded. Often, host populations do not know or have an incorrect perception of the levels of assistance received by displaced households. Furthermore, assistance provision can indirectly strengthen displaced–host relations when it is spent in the local economy, shared between communities, or perceived to reduce theft or begging. When social tensions do exist surrounding assistance provision, they typically signify existing social discontent within the host community. To strengthen social cohesion, the study recommends for policy makers to focus on improving the adequacy of social protection provisions for hosts and addressing their existing concerns, rather than reducing provisions for displaced communities. • Consider linkages between humanitarian and national social protection systems and programs in terms of effects on outcomes. Linking humanitarian and national social protection systems should be pursued when the linkage meets the needs of displaced people. When the lives and health of the displaced may be jeopardized, do not pursue linkages. Where feasible, linkages should help advance strategic objectives to build state systems, for example, to improve the coverage, adequacy, comprehensiveness, or resilience of social protection systems in displacement contexts. • International funding will still be required. Even when state social protection systems include displaced persons, international financing will remain essential, in line with existing global commitments to share responsibility for displacement challenges. Well-designed international financing such as the World Bank IDA Window for Host Communities and Refugees and the Global Concessional Financing Facility can incentivize the inclusion of displaced populations in state systems and effective collaboration. • Boost transparency and collaboration within and between humanitarian and social protection systems to ensure that displaced and host communities receive the assistance they need. The study advises that actors engage more in communicating and understanding other actors’ policies and programmes, even if no direct links between humanitarian and social protection systems are planned. Such cooperation may prevent duplication or clashes in activities, highlight opportunities for inter-system linkages, and improve coherence from the perspective of affected populations. 36 Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement Other social protection-related studies Several other studies generated helpful evidence. An impact evaluation of Iraq’s Public Distribution System (PDS), a universal food distribution program, investigated the program’s effectiveness in mitigating the loss of welfare induced by forced displacement. According to the analysis, compared to displaced households who lost access to PDS benefits, families with continued access to PDS consumed more calories, spent 20 percent more on education, and were less vulnerable to falling into poverty. However, displaced recipients remained significantly worse off than the non-displaced. These findings suggest that the PDS helped to mitigate losses but provided insufficient protection. Given the program’s cost, it was vital for Iraq to consider more effective approaches, such as targeted cash transfers.75 To explore a suitable targeting approach for vulnerable displaced households, a follow-up study assessed the overlap between a system used by humanitarian agencies to identify the recipients of a multi-purpose cash assistance program and the government’s targeting methods for a cash transfer program. According to the findings, the government targeting system would effectively target most vulnerable displaced households, but not all. A costlier data collection would be needed to ensure the effective targeting of all vulnerable displaced households. 76 Another impact evaluation investigated the impact of cash assistance to Afghan returnees from Pakistan on their post-return outcomes. According to the study, more than 16 months after their return, individuals who received a larger cash allowance of US$350 – an amount equal to 2.5 times their average annual income - were better off than those who received a smaller allowance of US$150. Recipients with less cash were also more likely to invest in durable assets, such as a house, while recipients of the smaller amount were more likely to spend on immediate food consumption needs. Households that received the larger assistance were also significantly more likely to have legal documentation for their household.77 Larger cash transfer programs, the research suggests, can have a large and positive long-term impact on returnees. 4. Measuring labor market impacts and creating jobs What is the impact of forced displacement on labor markets in host communities? What is the impact of jobs interventions in displacement situations and which programs and interventions are most cost-effective? These questions steered the global study on jobs, which was managed by the World Bank’s Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice and undertaken with two research partners.  The first question was addressed by consortium of organizations led by the FAFO Research Institute of Norway. The study set several objectives. First, to provide empirical evidence of the direct and indirect impacts of refugee presence on the labor markets in host countries. Second, to shed light on the mechanisms through which impacts occur – for example, through an increase in labor supply or consumer demand – and the key correlates of impacts. Third, to advance the development of evidence-based policy advice. A collaboration with Oxford Policy Management (OPM), the second part of the global study assessed the cost-efficiency and cost-effectiveness of jobs interventions in displacement contexts. The study asked: How much does it cost to create and sustain jobs in situations of displacement? 75 Iraq’s Universal Public Distribution System: Utilization and Impacts During Displacement, 2020 76 How Can Vulnerable Internally Displaced Persons Be Transitioned from Humanitarian Assistance to Social Protection ? Evidence from Iraq, 2022 77 More Is Better: Evaluating the Impact of a Variation in Cash Assistance on the Reintegration Outcomes of Returning Afghan Refugees, 2022 37 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas Box 5: Research content, methods, and dissemination Part 1 of the global study, titled The Labor Market Impacts of Forced Displacement: Jobs in Host Communities in Colombia, Ethiopia, Jordan, and Uganda, utilized existing data and collected new data on labor markets. In collaboration with the World Bank, FAFO Research Institute of Norway prepared the survey design and conducted the data collection with partners in the three countries: Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística and Universidad del Rosario in Colombia, the Policy Studies Institute in Ethiopia, and Bishop Stuart University in Uganda. Focused on South Sudan, Mali, Kenya, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq, part 2 of the global study also included a literature review and a database of cost, output, and impact data of jobs support projects and interventions funded by the World Bank, FCDO, or UNHCR in the six countries. The resulting report, titled Cost-Effectiveness of Jobs Projects in Conflict and Forced Displacement Contexts, presents the results of qualitative data, covering the period between 2009 and 2019, for 109 interventions and the analysis of available cost data for 63 of these interventions. In addition to the two reports, the jobs global study produced new data sets for Colombia, Ethiopia, and Uganda, and a dataset with cost, output, and outcome data for the six countries in the cost-effectiveness study. The labor market impacts of forced displacement: Jobs in host communities in Colombia, Ethiopia, Jordan, and Uganda78 The first part of the jobs global study aimed to measure the overall labor market effects of hosting refugees, with a focus on Colombia, Ethiopia, Jordan, and Uganda. In addition, the research sought to produce new data on host and refugee workers in the same labor market, analyze the impact of work permit programs on hosts and refugees in Colombia and Jordan, and gather experimental evidence on how labor market competition may shape host perceptions of refugees. According to the research, the labor market effects of hosting refugees are modest, or even positive, in the countries studied, although some host country workers can be adversely affected even as others enjoy new opportunities. On average, however, due to aid and government investments, host community workers are either not affected or benefited from the opportunities brought by refugee presence. Some groups of host workers face greater labor market competition, while others benefit. Those who lose out are sometimes, but not always, vulnerable groups – and these groups would benefit from targeted policies. Because overall effects tend to be mild and some groups benefit, such policies are likely to be viable. Refugees find ways to work even in host countries that restrict labor market access, but policies shape how refugees participate in the labor market. Many refugees are financially constrained and must find ways to work, even in restrictive policy environments. As refugees often can’t find good jobs, even in liberal policy environments, many rely on unearned income from humanitarian aid or remittances. Labor market integration policies help shape the kind of work refugees can access. Policies to integrate refugees into the economy affect which groups of host workers face competition and which gain opportunities, but competition may not start with these policy choices. Greater labor market access for refugees will usually expose some groups of host workers to increased competition. But more open access may also lessen competition for other groups of host workers. Granting refugees the legal right to work can reduce competition with host workers in informal jobs, while granting freedom of movement can reduce competition in localities near camps. 78 The Labor Market Impact of Forced Displacement – Jobs in Host Communities in Colombia, Ethiopia, Jordan and Uganda – Executive Summary, 2023 38 Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement In host countries where self-employment is a major source of jobs, two policy goals are key: helping refugees access capital and helping hosts seize new market opportunities. In host economies where most people engage in self-employment and household market activities, access to capital and land is critical for refugees, who often lose assets during displacement. Concurrently, refugees boost demand in local consumer markets, which broadens opportunities for host entrepreneurs. Policies should support host entrepreneurs to seize these opportunities. In host areas where economic activities are less diversified, it is difficult for refugees to bring skills that complement those of hosts. Labor markets in many lower-income countries are less diversified, with only a few common livelihood activities. When refugees often find themselves doing the same types of work as host workers, their access to capital and networks may determine their labor market outcomes more than their skills. Hosts’ attitudes toward refugees may depend on worries about job competition, both where there is significant competition and where there is less. Policies that welcome refugees are sustainable only if they are acceptable to host workers. Experimental evidence from Ethiopia and Uganda show that host workers’ views of refugees depend on concerns about job competition, rather than the actual degree of competition. To promote welcoming attitudes, policies should support host workers, communicate well about refugee participation in the job market, and encourage opportunities for personal interaction and perspective-taking. Policies designed for high-income countries may not be appropriate for labor markets in low- and middle-income countries, which harbor the majority of the world’s refugees. Effective policy must reflect the nature of job markets of host countries. Thoughtful policy toward greater economic integration can improve refugee livelihoods while ensuring job opportunities for hosts. Hosting refugees also brings important opportunities, and policies can compensate those adversely affected. Greater economic integration can make a profound difference for refugees and allow them to rebuild their lives. Policies based on the realities of host country labor markets can balance these two goals. Are jobs support interventions cost effective? The second part of the jobs global study examined jobs interventions funded by the World Bank, UNHCR, and FCDO, and sought to outline the cost efficiency and cost-effectiveness of the projects.79 Data remained scarce and incomplete despite the criticality of such information in guiding the budgeting and scaling of jobs interventions. The most common types of jobs support interventions are training and capital support projects. Many interventions include components that are specific to forced displacement, such as language training, provision of legal support, or psychosocial support. Where conflict is ongoing, the interventions were often simple. Below are the report’s key findings on cost-efficiency. • Costs of jobs support interventions per individual (or per firm) in forced displacement contexts vary. An agriculture productivity project can cost US$20 per individual, while a training project can cost US$3,200 per individual. Similarly, spending per firm ranges from US$3,300 to US$385,000. The value of the direct transfer is an important cost driver, especially for firm-level projects. Project complexity also impacts costs. • Capital support, value chain support, and job matching projects had modest median costs (US$135-180), with higher spending in labor-intensive public works (US$390) and training programs (US$680). • Programs targeting businesses spend over 75 times as much per business as projects supporting individuals, with costs largely driven by the size of the direct transfer. 79 Publication: Cost-Effectiveness of Jobs Projects in Conflict and Forced Displacement Contexts, 2022 39 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas Below are the report’s key findings on cost-effectiveness, with one caveat: this analysis uses jobs created and income to compare across programs, without considering factors such as job quality, additionality, and sustainability. • Public works projects had the lowest cost per job created, but the jobs were temporary. Job matching projects were instead found to place individuals in jobs at an intermediate level of cost. • Interventions providing capital and training had similar median costs, but capital support projects were more likely to create additional jobs. Due to the more indirect link to job creation, cost per job in capital support to businesses is a multiple of cost in programs that work with individuals, and it is particularly elevated when grants are larger. • Agriculture-oriented capital support projects can expect to break even during project duration, while value chain interventions may recoup cost within two to three years. This analysis delivered the following recommendations: • Remove restrictions on labor market participation. When displaced persons face limited work options, the outcomes are also limited. In addition, restrictions diminish the types of jobs support programs that can be implemented and require additional services to work around the constraints, increasing costs. • Assess ex ante the expected cost-effectiveness of interventions. Cost effectiveness analysis is vital to inform the use of scarce resources. Policymakers and practitioners should assess ex ante the expected cost effectiveness of programs by considering the likely impact on productivity, additionality, and sustainability of the possible interventions. Complex interventions – often called ‘package’ interventions - may address various obstacles, but often cost much more. In difficult contexts, simple interventions are more cost efficient and cost effective. • Unpack the components of interventions. Carefully consider the trade-off between benefits - for example, productivity gains and the prospect for future job creation - and the cost implications of working with firms rather than individuals. Programs involving small businesses have higher costs than projects involving individuals. Ventures involving large firms have far higher overall costs. • Scrutinize the case for training projects. Training projects cost more per participant and per job created than capital support interventions, yet they have weaker evidence of creating more jobs. Training programs can be effective in situations where skills gaps are likely to limit employment but, due to higher costs, they should be closely scrutinized when alternatives are available. • Track cost per participant and cost per outcome. It is very difficult to find good data on project spending per targeted individual. It is even more challenging to find data on cost per outcome. During monitoring and evaluation, keep a clear track of cost per participant and cost per outcome. Other studies on jobs and labor market impact The jobs global study was built on a rich literature review and meta-analysis that examined 59 empirical studies and 972 separate results, covering 19 forced displacement crises between 1922 to 2018 for host countries at different income levels.80 The research surmised that most employment and wage results for host communities were not significant. When significant, decreases in employment and wages were more likely to be short-term, in middle-income countries, and affect women as well as young and informal workers. Other research found gender-differentiated impacts of refugee inflows on the host community. An analysis of inflows of Venezuelan refugees in Brazil’s Roraima state reported adverse impacts on women’s labor market outcomes in 80 The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics, 2021 40 Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement the short-term and heterogeneous effects on earnings across industries, but mainly positive effects on earnings for highly skilled male workers.81 A study of Ethiopia revealed that male-headed households were consistently more likely to benefit from the presence of refugees, and that refugee inflows bring substantial overall benefits to host communities by creating secondary occupations and triggering more demand for livestock products.82 Other research concurred that the impact on hosts is not significant following refugee arrivals.83 One study found that refugee inflows did not have a significant effect on consumption and inequality.84 Another reported a negative consumption effect for rural areas, presumably caused by higher food prices following the inflow of displaced people alongside rising rent costs.85 Research in Uganda revealed that households benefit from living close to refugee settlements, especially those involved in subsistence agriculture.86 5. The intersectionality of gender and displacement  In forced displacement situations, gender affects poverty and other human development outcomes. The length of displacement also impacts these outcomes. To enhance understanding of this complex issue, the World Bank’s Gender Group established the Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement (GDFD) research program as part of Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement. Both humanitarian and development policies and programs should seek to understand and address the intersectionality of gender and displacement; to close gender gaps in education, paid work, income, poverty, and tackle the risk of gender-based violence (GBV). The program’s output presents a comprehensive analysis of how displacement is experienced differently by men and women and exacerbates gender inequality. Displaced women face unique challenges, including related to multi- dimensional poverty risk and heightened risk of GBV and intimate partner violence. Livelihoods and gender norms comprise the program’s other sub-themes. Three main research questions guided the program. How does gender inequality affect the extent and patterns of different dimensions of poverty in forcibly displaced populations? The studies then explored the ways conflict and displacement affect gender norms, and the prevalence of intimate partner violence and child marriage for women and girls. Lastly, the studies considered the implications of the research findings for the design and implementation of policies and programs. The country studies – of Colombia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Jordan, Mali, Nigeria, Somalia, and Sudan – were carried out with research partners, including the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, the International Security and Development Center, the Georgetown Institute of Women, Peace and Security, and the Oxford University Poverty and Human Development Initiative. 81 Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil, 2021 82 Livelihood Impacts of Refugees on Host Communities: Evidence from Ethiopia, 2022 83 Welfare Impact of Hosting Refugees in Ethiopia, 2021; Can Redistribution Change Policy Views? Aid and Attitudes toward Refugees in Uganda, 2023; The Effects of Internally Displaced Peoples on Consumption and Inequality in Mali, 2022 84 The Effects of Internally Displaced Peoples on Consumption and Inequality in Mali, 2022 85 Welfare Impact of Hosting Refugees in Ethiopia, 2021 86 How to Cope with a Refugee Shock Evidence from Uganda, 2022 41 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas Box 6: Research content, methods, and dissemination The Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement research program included nine country case studies and three multi-country studies, covering 17 countries. All the working papers utilized existing data sources and many of them featured innovative methodological approaches. Work for the program was guided by an approach paper, which included activities to inform policymakers, civil society organizations, and other researchers of the study’s goals and timeline. A Senior Advisory Panel on Gender and Forced Displacement provided overall guidance to the program and reviewed the findings to ensure that the conclusions and recommendations were useful and relevant to practitioners and decision-makers. Two studies were featured in the UN Secretary General’s High Level Panel Report on Internal Displacement. A selection of the papers will be published in a special issue of the Journal of Development Studies. The program also produced a background note on the data options for assessing the gender dimensions of forced displacement and a paper analyzing the extent of gender analysis undertaken by the Building the Evidence program as a whole. Key findings and policy recommendations87 Some of the program’s findings revealed expected patterns. Studies looking at multidimensional88 and monetary poverty89 among displaced and non-displaced households reported that displaced households are generally poorer than non-displaced households. Furthermore, many studies showed that women have a harder time accessing economic opportunities. However, the research also presented counter-intuitive results in particular settings, underscoring the importance of country-specific analysis. For example, the gender of the household head is an indicator of deprivation in most countries, but not all countries. In Somalia and Jordan, male-headed households are income poorer than female-headed households. But gender does influence poverty risk. In Somalia, single female caregivers, households with few working- age men, and IDP widows living outside IDP settlements are all at high risk to live in poverty. To comprehensively assess deprivation and poverty, research must investigate beyond the gender of the household head. However, while having more income earners of either gender reduces poverty risk for IDP and non-IDP households, IDP households with the largest decrease in poverty risk have more female earners. For non-IDPs, having more male earners is associated with the lowest poverty risk. 90 The key research findings from the program as follows: • Barriers to livelihood opportunities are influenced by gender. Key findings on livelihoods present similar gender-differentiated barriers. Evidence from both Ethiopia91 and Sudan (Darfur)92 demonstrated that substantial barriers constrain displaced women’s access to economic opportunities and, most notably, limited education and household care responsibilities. 87 The Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement – A Synthesis of New Research, 2022 88 A Multi-Country Analysis of Multidimensional Poverty in Contexts of Forced Displacement, 2021; Multidimensional Poverty, Gender, and Forced Displacement: A Multi-Country, Intrahousehold Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2021 89 How does poverty differ among refugees? Taking a gender lens to the data on Syrian refugees in Jordan, 2020; The Impact of Protracted Displacement on Syrian Refugees in Jordan: The Evolution of Household Composition and Poverty Rates, 2022 90 Differences in Household Composition: Hidden Dimensions of Poverty and Displacement in Somalia, 2021 91 Forced Displacement, Gender, and Livelihoods: Refugees in Ethiopia, 2021 92 The Double Burden of Female Protracted Displacement: Survey Evidence on Gendered Livelihoods in El Fasher, Darfur, 2021 42 Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement • The drivers of these constraints vary across settings. Endowments, specifically lack of access to land, emerge as an important barrier in Ethiopia, while lack of education is critical in both Ethiopia and Darfur. Some barriers are similar for displaced and non-displaced women. In Ethiopia, female household headship increases the likelihood of women’s employment for both refugees and hosts. • Some differences emerge across different contexts. In Darfur, displaced women are more likely to work than women in the host community. While having women in paid work can reduce poverty risks (as found in Somalia, for example), there is also evidence that displaced women in paid work have low earnings. • Conflict can exacerbate Intimate Partner Violence (IPV). According to the research in Colombia,93 DRC,94 Nigeria, Liberia, and Mali, IPV rates are significantly higher for women living in households in proximity to conflict. In Mali, experiencing conflict in one’s lifetime increases the risk of all forms of IPV—physical, emotional, and sexual.95 In districts of Nigeria affected by the Boko Haram conflict, women have less decision- making autonomy over their earnings and husbands/partners exhibit more controlling behaviors, both IPV risk factors.96 These findings suggest that promoting women’s economic opportunities might be one potential avenue to reduce IPV incidence in conflict-affected/displacement settings, given the association between women’s access to income and reduced risk of controlling behavior from a partner. • However, the paper Religious Terrorism, Forced Migration, and Women’s Empowerment: Evidence from the Boko Haram Insurgency looked at similar outcomes in IDP host communities located at a safe distance from conflict. The study found some improvements in house ownership, the use of modern contraceptive methods, and acceptance of beatings from husbands. On the flip side, women report experiencing more domestic violence, suggesting that economic empowerment alone may not always yield the hoped for results.97 • Attitudes on gender and gender norms do not always shift together. Two studies on gender norms - one from Colombia,98 the other from Jordan99 -- suggest that gender attitudes and gender norms do not always shift together and do not always progress toward gender equality during forced displacement. • Moreover, attitudes and norms can shift without corresponding changes in behavior, at least within the time frames of the studies. For example, among women in Colombia, displacement corresponded to less rigid patriarchal norms around gender roles and gender-based violence but reduced the ability of women to make decisions about contraception and earnings. • According to research in Jordan, Syrian women and girls held more equitable gender attitudes, but there was no significant difference between host and displaced populations around gender norms. Interestingly, the study found that displaced Syrian adult women enjoy more mobility than Jordanian host counterparts, but Syrian adolescent girls have less mobility than their Jordanian peers, likely reflecting higher real and perceived safety threats in public spaces. This suggests that programming should enable safe mobility and access to safe spaces for girls. 93 The Risk That Travels with You: Links between Forced Displacement, Conflict and Intimate Partner Violence in Colombia and Liberia, 2021 94 Conflict, Displacement and Overlapping Vulnerabilities: Understanding Risk Factors for Gender-Based Violence among Displaced Women in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, 2021 95 Intimate Partner Violence and Household Decision Making Autonomy: Effects of the Malian Conflict on Women, 2021 96 The effect of armed conflict on intimate partner violence: Evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria, 2022 97 Religious Terrorism, Forced Migration, and Women’s Empowerment: Evidence from the Boko Haram Insurgency, 2023 98 Do Gender Norms Become Less Traditional with Displacement The Case of Colombia, 2021 99 How Do Gender Norms Shape Education and Domestic Work Outcomes The Case of Syrian Refugee Adolescents in Jordan, 2021 43 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas Policy recommendations The overarching implication from the Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement research program is that both humanitarian and development policies and programs should seek to understand and address the intersectionality of gender and displacement; close gender gaps in education, paid work, income, and poverty; and reduce the risk of GBV. It is critical that host governments take concrete steps to review and, where necessary, revise national laws and policies to achieve gender equality and enhance economic inclusion for displaced populations. These policies should include measures to increase displaced persons’ free movement and access to labor markets and financial services, expand inclusive social protection to people affected by crisis and displacement, and provide safe, affordable, and accessible care services, including quality childcare. With regards to education, it is vital to expand access to safe and accessible education, and access to public technical and vocational training, which could include non-traditional occupations and skills to enable displaced women to run their own businesses. Policymaking should also address sexual and reproductive health. A full range of sexual and reproductive health services is needed to help women determine whether and when to have children. Finally, a series of recommendations emerge for agencies collecting survey data, including the World Bank, UN agencies, and Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). First, include displaced populations in population-wide and household-based data collection, especially in countries with significant displaced populations. Within households, sex-disaggregated individual-level data is needed to better understand the situation of different household members, dependency ratios, and more. The gender study underlines the important role of gender norms in shaping constraints and opportunities for women, men, girls, and boys. Data on gender norms should be collected, including from men and boys. Learn from qualitative information provided by displaced groups, including the voices of displaced women, especially those facing multiple disadvantages. 6. Improving social cohesion Can public policy address social inequalities that lead to, or are the consequence of, forced displacement crises? Building the Evidence generated new evidence to help answer this important question. The research examined how forced displacement affects social cohesion by reshaping the lives, attitudes, behaviors, and socio-economic conditions of displaced persons and host communities. It also studied how specific policy interventions can help include displaced people both from a social and economic standpoint. The social cohesion research was managed by the World Bank’s Social Sustainability and Inclusion Global Practice, who in turn commissioned 26 background papers to experts on the topic. The papers were then summarized in one global synthesis report. 44 Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement Box 7: Research content, methods, and dissemination Commissioned to external researchers through a global tender that received more than 250 proposals, the 26 background papers of the social cohesion series are geographically and methodologically diverse. They examined social cohesion in a variety of low-, middle-, and high-income countries across Africa, Asia, Central and South America, and Europe. The studies also employed a wide range of research designs, including qualitative case studies, natural experiments, survey experiments, and cross-national quantitative analyses. The studies were completed by January 2022 and published as World Bank Policy Research Working Papers. Eight papers were also published as part of a Special Issue of World Development, alongside a special issue paper. 100 The studies and their findings were disseminated through blogs, a newsletter, an animated short video, and events, including one at the Global Refugee Forum. Key findings and policy recommendations Displacement can exacerbate existing inequalities and create new inequalities and the potential for conflict, particularly when economic conditions are strained, according to the global study. However, inclusive policies and development investment can mitigate the negative effects of displacement and promote social cohesion. Over the long term, host communities with inclusive policies tend to experience positive economic and social cohesion outcomes. Several papers highlighted how governments can adopt inclusive policies for refugees (such as granting them the right to work, freedom of movement, access to social services, and the right to own or rent property) while preventing or mitigating backlash.101 Inclusive policies help refugees provide for themselves and their communities with dignity and foster mutual gains and positive relationships with host communities. Humanitarian assistance and development investments can play a vital role. When directed to both refugees and host communities, these investments can improve refugees’ welfare, generate positive externalities for host communities, and promote social cohesion. Whether directly through refugees’ participation in the host economy or indirectly through refugee aid and development programs, population inflows can improve economic conditions in host communities.102 However, these positive effects may take time to emerge, and conflict between refugees and host communities can arise in the interim. To pre-empt tensions between forcibly displaced and host communities, governments and humanitarian and development agencies should channel social assistance to both groups. The perceived fairness of social assistance provision to hosts and the forcibly displaced influences whether social assistance creates social cohesion or generates tensions. To meet the sharp increase in demand, development responses to forced displacement often require investments to expand infrastructure and services. Allowing host communities to access investments in services and humanitarian assistance is critical for preventing tensions and generating positive externalities. In many contexts, both refugees and hosts face multi-dimensional poverty. Multi-sectoral development investments are therefore needed to improve the provision of basic services, economic opportunities, environmental management, and shelter. The background papers also point to the importance of tailoring multi-sectoral development projects to address the unique needs in urban and rural contexts and in-camp and non-camp settings. Forcibly displaced persons experience both short-term trauma and long-term disadvantages that can last for decades, due to changes in their human, social, and physical capital. Several background papers highlighted the 100 Forced displacement, social cohesion, and the state: Evidence from eight new studies, 2024 101 Attitudes and Policies toward Refugees: Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries, 2022 102 The effects of refugees’ camps on hosting areas: Social conflicts and economic growth, 2023 and Zhou and Shaver, 2021. 45 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 3  |  Addressing Forced Displacement Through Focus Areas inequalities and trauma that persist among forcibly displaced persons decades after having been displaced.103 Providing social assistance, healthcare services, and economic opportunities to refugees and IDPs and vulnerable host community members immediately following displacement may help mitigate some of the long-term impacts. In the medium to long term, refugees, IDPs, and host community members may require ongoing mental health services, social support, and legal assistance with recovering property and obtaining vital documents, which can improve human capital and returns to labor market participation in the host country. Finally, multi-sectoral investments paired with participatory decision-making approaches among displaced and host communities can help ensure that investments address the highest priorities and promote social cohesion. Approaches like community-driven development that bring displaced and host communities together for joint planning, decision-making, and oversight of investments can deliver relatively high-quality and low-cost infrastructure and services and foster positive interactions. These participatory approaches exploit the high level of social capital among refugees and IDPs noted in several of the background papers.104 There is growing evidence that trained facilitators can also build empathy among host residents and displaced communities and ease social tensions. Policy recommendations The following policy recommendations emerged from the research on social cohesion: 1. In line with the United Nations Global Compact on Refugees, provide refugees the right to work, freedom of movement, access to social services, civil and birth registration, and rights to accommodation. 2. Ensure that humanitarian assistance and development investments target both displaced persons and host communities. 3. Invest in infrastructure and services to meet the increased demand due to population shocks and use these investments to also address existing vulnerabilities in host communities. 4. Near-term relief and assistance should be provided to both host communities and displaced persons following displacement to offset negative externalities on prices and jobs. 5. Provide relevant support such as mental health services for the trauma endured during displacement, ongoing social assistance to address hardships, and legal assistance to recover property and obtain documents to address displaced persons’ longer-term wellbeing and self-reliance. 6. Tailor investments to the unique needs of urban and rural areas hosting displaced populations, which may include labor market integration and housing support in urban areas, and access to land, income-generating opportunities, infrastructure, and services in rural areas. 7. Employ participatory approaches, trained facilitators, and public messaging to promote positive interactions and empathy between host residents and displaced persons. 8. Pair multisectoral investments with participatory approaches to ensure investments address the needs of displaced persons and host communities. 103 Social Cohesion, Economic Security, and Forced Displacement in the Long-Run: Evidence from Rural Colombia, 2022; Forced Displacement, Exposure to Conflict and Long-run Education and Income Inequality: Evidence from Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, 2022; Extortion and Civic Engagement among Guatemalan Deportees, 2022 104 Social Cohesion, Economic Security, and Forced Displacement in the Long-Run: Evidence from Rural Colombia, 2022; Extortion and Civic Engagement among Guatemalan Deportees, 2022; Hosting New Neighbors: Perspectives of Host Communities on Social Cohesion in Eastern DRC, 2022 46 Section 4  |  Contributions to Data and Research Methods  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement SECTION 4 Contributions to Data and Research Methods For many years, studying forced displacement was a challenge. It was difficult to find data on displaced populations and available data was of poor quality. Economists also lacked adequate methods to study forcibly displaced populations. Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement moved the needle on both fronts. Bridging the data gap In 2016, quality microdata on forced displacement were very scarce or unavailable. The UNHCR, for example, had registration data that included full individual and household records for refugees and other people of concern, but these data were not available for research. An early task of Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement was to ensure the safe anonymization of ProGRES data to allow for their public release. Due to this catalytic initiative and internal efforts by UNHCR, various ProGRES datasets are now available for research purposes. The availability of comparable data was another challenge. Displaced persons were typically excluded from national surveys. Hosts were not covered in UNHCR surveys. The ability to compare displaced and host populations is critical to formulate forced displacement policies that are fit-for-purpose. Some anecdotal evidence illustrates why this data is important. The impoverished areas of Northern Uganda host nearly one million refugees, mostly from South Sudan. Because host communities were also impoverished and under-served, it was difficult for humanitarian agencies to justify assisting refugees beyond the initial emergency phase of displacement. The availability of comparable data allows the targeting of policy and programming to address the needs of displaced and host households. The program has contributed to fill this gap by promoting joint surveys of displaced persons and host communities with initial experiments in Jordan and Lebanon. Other examples of such data sets are the 2017 SWIFT survey (Rapid Welfare Monitoring Survey) of Iraq, the data from the Profile of Internally Displaced Persons in North-East Nigeria 2018, and Uganda’s Refugee and Host Communities Household Survey 2018. The microdata component of the program was further developed into the Joint Data Center (JDC) and the program contributed to the work of the EGRISS commission which produced the first documents on statistical standards for refugees and IDPs. The Joint Data Center and EGRISS have been crucial in advancing data availability.105 The work of the Joint Data Center is also integral to the expansion of the UNHCR microdata library. Data collection efforts continued even during the COVID-19 pandemic, with World Bank and UNHCR teams collecting representative data through multi-country phone survey exercises. This data allowed the monitoring of outcomes by population group and over time during a crucial moment of history. Together with the JDC, the program has also supported the work of national statistical agencies in expanding national surveys to refugees and IDPs, which is the most promising area of work for mass producing microdata on displaced populations. The FCV data collection, a special collection of the World Bank microdata library, also continues to grow its repository of curated datasets on forced displacement and issues related to fragility, conflict, and violence.106 105 https://egrisstats.org/ 106 A wider collection is also available internally to the World Bank which includes proprietary data such as ACLED. 47 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 4  |  Contributions to Data and Research Methods Advancing methods Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement advanced research methods in various areas. Some of the program’s first papers sought to advance empirical methods for the benefit of subsequent research. This is the case for The Economics of Forced Displacement: An Introduction. The study illustrated key adaptations to be made to research methods and models in order to accurately reflect the specificities of displaced people as opposed to migrants.107 Similarly, exploiting a rich household and conflict panel dataset from northeast Nigeria, the paper Risk Preferences and the Decision to Flee Conflict proposed a groundbreaking new econometric model to explain the difficult choice that people are confronted with when their lives are at risk: stay or leave? Contrary to economic migrants, risk-tolerant individuals prefer to stay while risk-averse individuals prefer to flee. These findings contrast with research findings on economic migrants and call for separate policies for the forcibly displaced.108 ‘The Impact of Forced Displacement on Host Communities: A Review of the Empirical Literature in Economics’ was also pioneering. The paper presented both a review of the empirical methods utilized to study the impact of displacement on host communities and a meta-analysis that delivered the first estimates of impact on employment, wages, wellbeing, and prices.109 A series of papers produced by the program proved influential. Testing imputation methods to estimate poverty levels of displaced populations, the papers explored data from Jordan110 and Chad.111 The tests performed well in predicting actual poverty; in fact, better than other commonly used targeting methods such as a proxy means tests. To estimate poverty rates among Syrian refugees, the Jordan study tested the use of a small number of predictors available in the UNHCR registration system. The estimates produced in the paper were not statistically different from the actual poverty rates, were robust to different definitions of poverty lines, and more accurate than estimates based on asset indexes or proxy means tests. They also performed well according to targeting indicators and could be obtained with relatively small samples.112 The Chad paper similarly tested the performance of cross-survey imputation methods to estimate poverty for a sample of refugees there. The poverty estimates derived from administrative data using the imputation method fell within a 95 percent margin of poverty estimates derived using traditional survey consumption data. This result was robust to different poverty lines, sets of regressors, and modeling assumptions of the error term. The method outperformed more common methods, such as proxy means tests and the targeting method used by humanitarian organizations in Chad.113 UNHCR is undertaking efforts to apply this type of poverty imputation method to refugees in Colombia and Bangladesh, and to IDPs in Ukraine. Improved measurement of the levels of deprivation of these populations, say UNHCR researchers, will allow for better targeted programming and advocacy efforts. A dedicated review was also undertaken to provide an overview of the status and prospects of poverty measurement for displaced populations, highlighting that this research field is still in its infancy.114 Machine-learning imputation methods were developed to fill in gaps in WFP’s food prices data at the subnational level. Developed in Estimating Food Price Inflation from Partial Surveys, the data imputation method was tested using WFP surveys from 25 fragile and conflict-affected countries, covering 1,200 markets and 43 food types. The method achieved accuracy similar to a direct measurement of prices, hence allowing inflation monitoring at the market level despite the incompleteness and intermittency of the original survey data. 107 The Economics of Forced Displacement: An Introduction, 2016 108 Risk Preferences and the Decision to Flee Conflict, 2018 109 The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics, 2021 110 Estimating Poverty for Refugee Populations: Can Cross-Survey Imputation Methods Substitute for Data Scarcity, 2019 111 Estimating Poverty among Refugee Populations: A Cross-Survey Imputation Exercise for Chad, 2020 112 Estimating Poverty for Refugee Populations: Can Cross-Survey Imputation Methods Substitute for Data Scarcity, 2019 113 Estimating Poverty among Refugee Populations: A Cross-Survey Imputation Exercise for Chad, 2020 114 Measuring Poverty in Forced Displacement Contexts, 2023 48 Section 4  |  Contributions to Data and Research Methods  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement This methodology allows researchers to conduct far-reaching analysis useful for evidence-based policymaking. For example, the local data provide a new granular view on important inflation events, including the crisis in world food prices in 2007 and the surge in global inflation following the 2020 pandemic. Imputation estimates may provide new opportunities to investigate local price dynamics in markets where prices are sensitive to localized shocks and traditional data is not available.115 The curated WFP data series are regularly updated to the FCV collection, with funding from Food Systems 2030, a World Bank Multi-Donor Trust Fund supporting the improvement of food systems worldwide.116 Funding from another World Bank initiative, the Pacific Observatory Datasets,117 has allowed the further fine-tuning of the methodology, as presented in a follow-up paper.118 Overall, this new methodology has contributed to improvements in the measurement of food prices data globally. Building the Evidence charted other innovations. Research supported by the program tested new targeting approaches that could overcome the data constraints typical of many displacement contexts. ‘Optimal Targeting under Budget Constraints in a Humanitarian Context’ outlined how to use Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and related indexes to optimize the targeting of a World Food Program food voucher program for Syrian refugees in Jordan. The paper used coverage rates, budgets, or poverty lines as guiding principles to increase the program’s targeting efficiency. As humanitarian organizations operate under increasing budget constraints and increasing demands for efficiency, the proposed approach addressed both concerns. 119 Another paper, Program Targeting with Machine Learning and Mobile Phone Data: Evidence from an Anti-Poverty Intervention in Afghanistan, used data collected as part of an impact evaluation, and tested whether targeting could be achieved using Call Detail Record (CDR) data. The results showed that targeting using phone data is nearly as accurate as with consumption or wealth data. In addition, combining the two data sources (phone and survey data) gives more accurate targeting than using any of the two data sources in isolation. 120 Researchers are also using new data sources such as social media data and land use data to study specific research questions in displacement contexts. The paper ‘Displacement and return in the internet Era: Social media for monitoring migration decisions in Northern Syria’ combined social media (Twitter, Telegram, and Facebook) text and image analyses, topic modeling and traditional survey data to ground-truth the presence of IDPs and returnees in target areas. The study found that areas without return have a higher prevalence of violence-related discourse and images while areas with return feature content related to services and the economy. This paper revealed the potential of social media analysis as a monitoring tool for identifying returnee and IDP populations.121 Utilizing spatially explicit data on land-use/land-cover and proximity to a camp boundary, a study in Bangladesh quantified land-use changes across the district over time and evaluated the extent to which the camps triggered additional forest loss. The paper delivered important findings. First, the study concluded that the rate of forest loss intensified near camps relative to the control areas, but the forest loss was not due to the camps’ expansion. Instead, host populations seeking new economic opportunities and improved access to resources prompted the in-migration and subsequent forest loss.122 Finally, a social protection study turned to utilizing WhatsApp to carry out qualitative research with displaced Venezuelans.123 115 Publication: Estimating Food Price Inflation from Partial Surveys, 2021 116 https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/food-systems-2030 117 https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/int/search/dataset/0062856/pacific-observatory-datasets 118 Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea, 2023 119 Optimal targeting under budget constraints in a humanitarian context, 2019 120 Program targeting with machine learning and mobile phone data: Evidence from an anti-poverty intervention in Afghanistan, 2023 121 Displacement and return in the internet Era: Social media for monitoring migration decisions in Northern Syria, 2023 122 Rohingya Refugee Camps and Forest Loss in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh: An Inquiry Using Remote Sensing and Econometric Approaches, 2022 123 https://blogs.worldbank.org/dev4peace/using-whatsapp-collect-data-displaced-venezuelans-internally-displaced-populations-and 49 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Section 5  |  Areas for Future Research SECTION 5 Areas for Future Research In under a decade, research on forced displacement has seen a transformation. The literature evolved from a few hundred papers to thousands of publications in top economics journals and other social science publications. This change can be regarded as a rare development in the history of social sciences. Advances are particularly notable in specific thematic areas such as measuring labor market impacts, understanding social cohesion, and studying social protection interventions, including through impact evaluations. This transformation is just beginning. There are realms of focus areas related to forced displacement that are waiting for more data, examination, insights, and innovations in research methods. Potential areas for future research are as follows. The macroeconomics of forced displacement Research on the macroeconomics of forced displacement is long overdue. This program included a few studies that covered macroeconomic factors, such as employment, unemployment, and price inflation. However, only a handful of studies have examined the impact of forced displacement on other important macroeconomic areas, such as growth, GDP, inequality, banking, finance, trade, business environment, technological change, fiscal impact, or crime. While forced displacement is now a prime area of research for microeconomists, the same cannot be said for macroeconomists. The impact of forced displacement on infrastructure and utilities Due to the increasing ‘urbanization’ of displacement, more research is needed on its impact on access to energy, water, sewage, phone and internet networks, and road infrastructure. Some areas hosting refugees and IDPs double or triple in population in a few weeks. These population changes can have devastating effects on local infrastructure, but the impacts remain unknown. These studies are particularly important to allow planning for the optimal allocation of resources during a forced displacement emergency, such as expanding water resources or electricity and phone coverage. The environmental impact of forced displacement, and climate-induced displacement Land degradation, waste management, increased traffic, and increased exploitation of natural resources - such as wood harvested for firewood - are some examples of the environmental and climate issues that may arise in forced displacement contexts. In recent years, research on environmental impacts has grown exponentially, but little of the research is related to forced displacement. Broadening this untapped research field may be essential in managing environmental change and preventing it from impairing the long-term development potential of host and displaced communities. Research is also urgently needed on climate- induced displacement; for example, displacement following floodings, earthquakes or tsunamis. The poverty and well-being of forcibly displaced communities and their hosts Still in its infancy, research on the poverty and well-being of displaced and host populations will require dedicated research that should address methodological and empirical challenges. As we learned from the program, measuring poverty in forced displacement contexts is problematic and has its own specificities that are not yet fully understood. In addition, there are few studies that measure the impact of forced displacement on household well-being measured in poverty terms. This knowledge gap constrains the capacity of development organizations to measure global poverty accurately. 50 Section 5  |  Areas for Future Research  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement Child poverty, wellbeing, vulnerability, and the effectiveness of early childhood interventions in displacement contexts Given the high number of displaced children, this research area needs urgent attention. The education global study identified key evidence gaps in the provision of inclusive education to refugee children. We must learn more about the interventions that can prevent violence against children. Finally, evidence is needed on the effectiveness of interventions for younger children, such as those implemented in safe spaces. Long-term impacts and secondary effects of forced displacement The long-term impact and secondary effects of forced displacement are still poorly quantified. The range of subjects is vast, from the displacement of hosts following the influx of displaced people, to the return of forcibly displaced persons to their homes, and the impact of repeated displacements over time. Little is also known about the possible expansionary effects on the economy of aid and government spending in the aftermath of a crisis and in the longer term. Stronger research in this field can help governments and humanitarian organizations anticipate and better plan and manage future displacements. The cost of forced displacement programs Accessing cost data for forced displacement projects and programs remains a grey area with scattered and difficult to collect information. Costing for planning and identifying the optimal allocation of scarce financial resources is critical in many contexts. Fundraising efforts can also be constrained by the unavailability of reliable cost data. As such, policymakers should view the shortage of actionable data and research on the costs of forced displacement programs as a priority area for action. More data and more research on internally displaced populations Research on refugees far outnumber research on internally displaced populations. Research is lacking on other groups of displaced populations too, for example, on stateless people and returnees. The lack of research on internally displaced populations is especially worrying as the biggest share of displaced communities are displaced within the borders of their own countries - and they can remain displaced for many years. The situation is complicated by the fact that the countries hosting the most IDPs are often the countries where data collection is most difficult, due to ongoing conflict. But the situation is not impossible, as IDPs typically reside in areas relatively sheltered from conflict. Hence, more concerted efforts are needed to strengthen data collection and research on these populations. More research on the intersectionality of forced displacement and various socio-economic dimensions such as gender The Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement program kickstarted a pivotal research stream. Further questions must be responded to, such as which programs may be effective in promoting gender equality and which interventions are helpful in preventing gender-based violence in situations of forced displacement. Mental health, its linkages with wellbeing, and building the evidence base on interventions that are effective in improving mental health among displaced communities Mental health care services are typically difficult to find in displacement contexts, as identified by the global study on health. There is also scant evidence about the mental health interventions that may be effective with displaced populations, and the delivery modalities that may prove cost-effective in such contexts. The impact of specific forced displacement policies and programs Some programs and interventions require sustained research on the potential of their impact. Areas that would benefit from more evidence of impact include anticipatory cash programming in areas at high risk of climate shocks; job matching schemes and internal relocation programs; sports-based programming; and policies that lower the barriers to full socio-economic inclusion, such as access to documentation or regularization. 51 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   © DOMINIC CHAVEZ/WORLD BANK 52 Annex 1  |  Lessons on Research Commissioning  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement ANNEX 1 Lessons on Research Commissioning In addition to delivering exemplary research and findings, Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement offers guidance for future programs pursuing research on forced displacement. The following are some examples of the lessons learned. Phase the work into components. The funding modality for the four sectoral global studies – on education, health, jobs, and social protection – involved a large contract to one external organization through a large public tender. As such, the timeline for procurement was extended, resulting in a delay to the start of the research and the delivery of its findings. Future programs may want to reconsider this modality to accelerate the research turnaround times. Background research pieces such as literature reviews and reviews of the available data could be commissioned separately. This portion of the research work could commence while the procurement process for the global studies, which includes primary data collection, is ongoing. As a result, some key pieces of research could be completed earlier.  Aim for more targeted consultations. All sectoral global studies engaged in year-long consultation processes to develop research questions that may have been yielded by a smaller, more targeted consultation process. Consultations can be optimized by carefully selecting contributors with known expertise on specific sectors and setting limits to the number of events and the time frame of consultations. For example, two well-prepared consultations workshops condensed over a one-month period can help maintain focus.   Consider using existing data. Future research programs should think carefully whether research questions can be answered using existing data or whether the collection of new data is required, as the latter is a riskier task. Primary data collection takes time and in-person surveys in FCV contexts is an undertaking that can run into serious challenges if the security environment deteriorates. To minimize the risk of delays or failure in data collection, when possible, consider research that uses existing data, phone surveys, or innovative data sources such as satellite data or social media data. When primary in-person data collection is the only suitable data collection method, research teams should thoroughly identify possible risks and design risk mitigation strategies accordingly.  Engage the country offices. Seek to engage World Bank country office leadership early in the research, to ensure participation and buy-in of staff engaging with government counterparts. As such, research on sensitive topics and locations may progress with less risks. Carefully consider the implications of having the administration of a partnership research program reside with one of the partners. Building the Evidence was a partnership program between the World Bank and UNHCR, with funding from FCDO and program administration by a World Bank team. The Advisory Committee comprised of FCDO, UNHCR, and World Bank staff was able to ensure the overall implementation of the program as a partnership. However, synergy at the level of research execution varied and were dependent on the priorities of teams who often faced competing priorities. 53 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Annex 2  |  List of Papers, by Research Pillar ANNEX 2 List of Papers, by Research Pillar Global studies Education 1. Building the Evidence for What Works: Evidence Synthesis and Intervention Map 2. Building the Evidence for What Works: Case Study Summary 3. Case Study from Colombia 4. Case Study from Jordan 5. Case Study from Chad Health 6. World Bank Consortium: The Big Questions in Forced Displacement and Health 7. Bangladesh Country Report 8. Colombia Country Report 9. Democratic Republic of the Congo Country Report 10. Jordan Country Report 11. Preventing and Mitigating Indirect Health Impacts of COVID-19 on Displaced Populations in Humanitarian Settings 12. Family Violence Protection in the Context of COVID-19 and Forced Displacement I Release event 13. Addressing the Human Capital Dimension of the COVID-19 Response in Forced Displacement Settings 14. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia on utilization of medical services by Venezuelan migrants and Colombian citizens 15. Integration Through Health During Protracted Displacement: Case Studies From Colombia and Jordan 16. COVID-19 in humanitarian settings and lessons learned from past epidemics 17. Special Issue on Forced Displacement and Health (forthcoming), Journal on Migration and Health Social Protection 18. Social Protection Responses to Forced Displacement 19. Social protection and forcibly displaced people: a literature review 20. Linking humanitarian assistance and social protection in response to forced displacement: an analytical framework 21. Integrating assistance to the displaced into a social protection system in Cameroon. An ideal, but in whose interests? 22. Social protection responses to forced displacement in Colombia 23. Humanitarian assistance and social protection responses to the forcibly displaced in Greece 24. Humanitarian assistance and social protection in contexts of forced displacement: effects on social cohesion 25. Basic needs and wellbeing in displacement settings: the role of humanitarian assistance and social protection 26. Adjusting social protection delivery to support displaced populations 27. What can existing microdata tell us about transfer receipt among host and displaced populations? 28. Linking social protection and humanitarian assistance: A toolkit to support social cohesion in displacement settings 54 Annex 2  |  List of Papers, by Research Pillar  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement 29. Linking social protection and humanitarian assistance: A toolkit to support basic needs and wellbeing in displacement settings 30. Adjusting social protection delivery to support displaced populations: A toolkit 31. Linking social protection and humanitarian assistance: Guidance to assess the factors and actors that determine an optimal approach in a displacement setting. A toolkit Jobs 32. Cost-Effectiveness of Jobs Projects in Conflict and Forced Displacement Contexts 33. Labor Market Impacts of Forced Displacement – Jobs in Host Communities in Colombia, Ethiopia, Jordan, and Uganda (forthcoming). Executive summary. Gender 34. Key Development Challenges Around Internal Displacement: A Gender Perspective 35. Key Challenges for Refugee Policies and Programs: A Gender Perspective 36. The Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement: A Synthesis of New Research 37. Differences in Household Composition: Hidden Dimensions of Poverty and Displacement in Somalia 38. A Multi-Country Analysis of Multidimensional Poverty in Contexts of Forced Displacement 39. Multidimensional Poverty, Gender, and Forced Displacement: A Multi-Country, Intrahousehold Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa 40. How Does Poverty Differ Among Refugees? Taking a Gender Lens to the Data on Syrian Refugees in Jordan 41. The Impact of Protracted Displacement on Syrian Refugees in Jordan: The Evolution of Household Composition and Poverty Rates 42. Conflict, Displacement and Overlapping Vulnerabilities: Understanding Risk Factors for Gender-based Violence among Displaced Women in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo 43. Intimate Partner Violence and Household Decision-making Autonomy: Effects of the Malian Conflict on Women 44. The Risk That Travels with You: Links between Forced Displacement, Conflict and Intimate Partner Violence in Colombia and Liberia 45. Effect of Armed Conflict on Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from the Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria 46. Conflict and Girl Child Marriage: Global Evidence 47. Do Gender Norms Change with Conflict-Induced Displacement? The Case of Colombia 48. How Do Gender Norms Shape Education and Domestic Work Outcomes? The Case of Syrian Refugee Adolescents in Jordan 49. Forced Displacement, Gender, and Livelihoods: Refugees in Ethiopia 50. The double burden of female displacement: Survey data evidence on gendered livelihoods and welfare from protracted forcibly displaced and host community women in El Fasher in Darfur, Sudan 51. Coping with Compounding Challenges in Conflict Crises: Evidence from North-east Nigeria 52. Special Issue on Forced Displacement and Gender (forthcoming), Journal of Development Studies Social Cohesion 53. Forced Migration, Social Cohesion and Conflict: The 2015 Refugee Inflow in Germany 54. Labor Market Integration, Local Conditions and Inequalities: Evidence from Refugees in Switzerland 55. How do Shared Experiences of Economic Shocks Impact Refugees and Host Communities: Evidence from Afghan Refugees in Iran 56. Refugee Return and Social Cohesion 57. Social Cohesion and Refugee Host Interactions: Evidence from East Africa 58. Attitudes and Policies toward Refugees: Evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries 59. Inclusive Refugee-Hosting in Uganda Improves Local Development and Prevents Public Backlash 60. Immigration, Labor Markets and Discrimination: Evidence from the Venezuelan Exodus in Peru 61. Hosting New Neighbors: Perspectives of Host Communities on Social Cohesion in Eastern DRC 62. The Geography of Displacement, Refugees’ Camps and Social Conflicts 63. Refugees, Diversity and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa 64. Inequality and Security in the Aftermath of Internal Population Displacement Shocks: Evidence from Nigeria 65. The Effects of Internally Displaced Peoples on Consumption and Inequality in Mali 66. Policy Preferences in Response to Large Migration Inflows 55 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Annex 2  |  List of Papers, by Research Pillar 67. Long-term Effects of the 1923 Mass Refugee Inflow on Social Cohesion in Greece 68. Local Peace Agreements and the Return of IDPs with Perceived ISIL Affiliation in Iraq 69. What it Takes to Return: UN Peacekeeping and the Safe Return of Displaced People (English) 70. Building Stability Between Host and Refugee Communities: Evidence from a TVET Program in Jordan and Lebanon 71. Distributional Policies and Social Cohesion in a High-Unemployment Setting 72. Why Student Aid Matters? Roadblocks to the Transition into Higher Education for Forced Migrants in Chile 73. Social Cohesion, Economic Security, and Forced Displacement in the Long-Run: Evidence from Rural Colombia 74. Extortion and Civic Engagement among Guatemalan Deportees 75. Forced Displacement, Exposure to Conflict and Long-run Education and Income Inequality: Evidence from Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina 76. Displacement and Social Empowerment: Evidence from Surveys of IDPs in Iraq, the Philippines, and Uganda 77. Superstitions and Civilian Displacement: Evidence from the Colombian Conflict 78. Displacement and return in the internet Era: Social media for monitoring migration decisions in Northern Syria 79. Forced displacement, social cohesion, and the state: Evidence from eight new studies 80. Inclusive refugee-hosting can improve local development and prevent public backlash 81. Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany 82. Displacement and return in the internet Era: Social media for monitoring migration decisions in Northern Syria 83. The effects of refugees’ camps on hosting areas: Social conflicts and economic growth 84. Labor market integration, local conditions and inequalities: Evidence from refugees in Switzerland 85. Long-term effects of the 1923 mass refugee inflow on social cohesion in Greece 86. Immigration, labor markets and discrimination: Evidence from the Venezuelan Exodus in Perú 87. Policy preferences in response to large forced migration inflows Impact Evaluations 88. No Household Left Behind: Afghanistan Targeting the Ultra Poor Impact Evaluation 89. Program targeting with machine learning and mobile phone data: Evidence from an anti-poverty intervention in Afghanistan 90. The enduring impacts of a big push during multiple crises: Experimental evidence from Afghanistan 91. Impact Evaluations in Forced Displacement Contexts: A Guide for Practitioners 92. Living Conditions and Settlement Decisions of Recent Afghan Returnees 93. More is Better: Evaluating the Impact of a Variation in Cash Assistance on the Reintegration Outcomes of Returning Afghan Refugees 94. Iraq’s Universal Public Distribution System: Utilization and Impacts during Displacement 95. Can Redistribution Change Policy Views? Aid and Attitudes toward Refugees in Uganda 96. The Psychosocial Value of Work: Evidence from a Refugee Camp 97. The Gendered Impacts of Employment 98. Entrepreneurship Support for Refugees and Host Communities in a Fragile Context 99. Cameroon Social Safety Nets Project – Baseline report 100. Religious Terrorism, Forced Migration, and Women’s Empowerment: Evidence from the Boko Haram Insurgency (English) 101. Impact Evaluation Brief: Results from the POWER-J Socioemotional Skills Intervention Piloted in Public Schools in Jordan 102. Memory, Trauma, and Economic Behavior Among Refugees: Experimental Evidence from Teaching ‘Positive Visualization’ in Ethiopia 103. Cluster Randomized Trial of Teacher Coaching: Evidence from Lebanon’s Coaching Model 104. Impact Evaluation of the Development Response to Displacement Impacts Project in Ethiopia (forthcoming) 105. Information and women participation in community driven development projects in the presence of refugees: evidence from Kenya (forthcoming) 106. Determinants of Perceptions toward Refugees among Lebanon’s Poorest Households (unpublished) 56 Annex 2  |  List of Papers, by Research Pillar  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement Fellow Papers 107. Out of sight, out of mind: The impact of lockdown measures on sentiment towards refugees, Journal of Information Technology & Politics 108. The Impact of Hosting Arrangement (camp vs out-of-camp) on the Quality of Life of Refugees--The Case of Syrian Refugees in Jordan 109. How Can Vulnerable Internally Displaced Persons Be Transitioned from Humanitarian Assistance to Social Protection. Evidence from Iraq 110. The Effects of Refugee Camps on Children of Host Communities: Evidence from Ethiopia 111. Land Matters: Can Better Governance and Management of Scarcity Prevent a Looming Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa? 112. Integration of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil 113. Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil 114. How do shocks affect enrollment in faith-based schools? Evidence from West Africa 115. Climate Shocks, Migration, and Labor Markets: A Gender Analysis from West Africa 116. Impact of COVID-19 on Labor Market Outcomes of Refugees and Nationals in Kenya 117. How COVID-19 Continues to Affect Lives of Refugees in Kenya: Rapid Response Phone Survey - Rounds 1 to 5 118. Understanding the Socio-Economic Conditions of Refugees in Kenya: Volume B – Kakuma Camp: Results from the 2019 Kakuma Socioeconomic Survey 119. Rohingya Refugee Camps and Forest Loss in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh: An Inquiry Using Remote Sensing and Econometric Approaches 120. Climate resilience in Rwanda: evaluating refugees’ and host populations’ vulnerability to risk 121. Monitoring COVID-19 Impact on Refugees in Ethiopia, Report No. 2: Results from a High-Frequency Phone Survey of Refugees 122. Monitoring COVID-19 Impact on Refugees in Ethiopia: Results from a High-Frequency Phone Survey of Refugees (English) 123. Livelihood Impacts of Refugees on Host Communities: Evidence from Ethiopia 124. Do host communities see improved livelihoods through agricultural diversification and commercialization as a response to refugees’ inflow? 125. COVID-19 Impact Monitoring on refugee households in Chad - Round 1 126. COVID-19 Impact Monitoring on Refugee Households in Chad - Round 2 127. Do Refugees with Better Mental Health Better Integrate? Evidence from the Building a New Life in Australia Longitudinal Survey  128. Forced displacement, Gender Differences and Livelihoods: Refugees in Ethiopia 129. Welfare Impact of Hosting Refugees in Ethiopia 130. How to Cope with a Refugee Shock? Evidence from Uganda 131. Intergenerational Impact of Population Shocks on Children’s Health: Evidence from the 1993-2001 Refugee Crisis in Tanzania 132. Estimating Poverty among Refugee Populations: A Cross-Survey Imputation Exercise for Chad 133. Understanding Decisions Made on Asylum Applications in Host Countries 134. Effect of Armed Conflict on Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from the Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria 135. Understanding the Socioeconomic Conditions of Refugees in Kalobeyei, Kenya Focus papers 136. Measuring Poverty in Forced Displacement Contexts 137. Estimating Food Price Inflation from Partial Surveys 138. COVID-19 Outbreaks in Refugee Camps 139. The Impact of Forced Displacement on Host Communities: A Review of the Empirical Literature in Economics 140. Estimating Poverty among Refugee Populations: A Cross-Survey Imputation Exercise 141. Optimal Targeting under Budget Constraints in a Humanitarian Context 142. Risk Preferences and the Decision to Flee Conflict 143. The Economics of Forced Displacement: An Introduction Data 144. Metadata Standards and Schemas for Improved Data Discoverability and Usability 57 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Annex 3  |  List of Journal Publications ANNEX 3 List of Journal Publications 1. Special Issue Paper for Special Issue on Forced Displacement and Gender, Journal of Development Studies (forthcoming)124 2. Multidimensional Poverty, Gender, and Forced Displacement: A Multi-Country, Intrahousehold Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa Journal of Development Studies, (forthcoming) 3. Forced Displacement, Gender, and Livelihoods: Refugees in Ethiopia Journal of Development Studies, (forthcoming) 4. The Risk That Travels with You: Links between Forced Displacement, Conflict and Intimate Partner Violence in Colombia and Liberia Journal of Development Studies, (forthcoming) 5. Conflict, Displacement and Overlapping Vulnerabilities: Understanding Risk Factors for Gender-based Violence among Displaced Women in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo Journal of Development Studies, (forthcoming) 6. The double burden of female displacement: Survey data evidence on gendered livelihoods and welfare from protracted forcibly displaced and host community women in El Fasher in Darfur, Sudan Journal of Development Studies, (forthcoming) 7. Do Gender Norms Change with Conflict-Induced Displacement? The Case of Colombia Journal of Development Studies, (forthcoming) 8. How Do Gender Norms Shape Education and Domestic Work Outcomes? The Case of Syrian Refugee Adolescents in Jordan (Journal of Development Studies, (forthcoming) 9. Special Issue on Forced Displacement and Health, Journal on Migration and Health (forthcoming)125 10. Can Redistribution Change Policy Views? Aid and Attitudes toward Refugees in Uganda (forthcoming) 11. Do Refugees with Better Mental Health Better Integrate? Evidence from the Building a New Life in Australia Longitudinal Survey (forthcoming), Journal of Health Economics 12. Forced displacement, social cohesion, and the state: Evidence from eight new studies, World Development, Special Issue ‘The Consequences of Forced Displacement for Social Cohesion’ 13. Labor market integration, local conditions and inequalities: Evidence from refugees in Switzerland, World Development (Special Issue) 14. Immigration, labor markets and discrimination: Evidence from the Venezuelan Exodus in Perú, World Development (Special Issue) 15. Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany, World Development (Special Issue) 16. Long-term effects of the 1923 mass refugee inflow on social cohesion in Greece, World Development (Special Issue) 17. Displacement and return in the internet Era: Social media for monitoring migration decisions in Northern Syria, World Development (Special Issue) 18. The effects of refugees’ camps on hosting areas: Social conflicts and economic growth, World Development (Special Issue) 19. Inclusive refugee-hosting can improve local development and prevent public backlash, World Development (Special Issue) 20. Policy preferences in response to large forced migration inflows, World Development (Special Issue) 124 The special issue will comprise 4-5 papers. 125 The special issue will comprise 6-8 papers. 58 Annex 3  |  List of Journal Publications  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement 21. Integration Through Health During Protracted Displacement: Case Studies From Colombia and Jordan, Journal on Migration and Human Society 22. Refugees welcome? Inter-group interaction and host community attitude formation, World Development 23. How to cope with a refugee population? Evidence from Uganda, World Development 24. Out of sight, out of mind: The impact of lockdown measures on sentiment towards refugees, Journal of Information Technology & Politics 25. COVID-19 in humanitarian settings and lessons learned from past epidemics, Nature Medicine 26. How does poverty differ among refugees? Taking a gender lens to the data on Syrian refugees in Jordan, Middle East Development Journal 27. Exposure to Conflict, Migrations and Long-run Education and Income Inequality: Evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Defence and Peace Economics 28. Refugee return and social cohesion, Oxford Review of Economic Policy 29. Program targeting with machine learning and mobile phone data: Evidence from an anti-poverty intervention in Afghanistan, Journal of Development Economics 30. Estimating poverty for refugees in data-scarce contexts: an application of cross-survey imputation, Journal of Population Economics 31. The Psychosocial Value of Employment: Evidence from a Refugee Camp, American Economic Review 32. Climate resilience in Rwanda: evaluating refugees’ and host populations’ vulnerability to risk, Forced Migration Review (FMR) 33. How do shocks affect enrollment in faith-based schools? Evidence from West Africa, International Studies in Catholic Education 34. The Economics of Forced Displacement: An Introduction, Region and Development 35. The impact of forced displacement on host communities: A review of the empirical literature in economics, Journal of Development Economics 36. A Simple Early Warning Signal for COVID-19, medRxiv 37. Optimal targeting under budget constraints in a humanitarian context, World Development 38. The effect of armed conflict on intimate partner violence: Evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria, World Development 39. Intergenerational Impact of Population Shocks on Children’s Health: Evidence from the 1993-2001 Refugee Crisis in Tanzania, Health Economics e-Journal 40. How Does Poverty Differ Among Refugees? Taking a Gender Lens to the Data on Syrian Refugees in Jordan, Middle East Development Journal 59 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Annex 4  |  List of Dissemination Products and Activities, by Research Pillar ANNEX 4 List of Dissemination Products and Activities, by Research Pillar Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement Events • Presentation at Global Refugee Forum (Speaker’s Corner) - December 2023 • Module 2 in Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement - October 2023 • Compounding Barriers: Access to Economic Opportunities, Gender and Forced Displacement - April 2022 • Gender norms and conflict-induced displacement: evidence from Colombia and Jordan - March 2022 • Building the Evidence on the Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement - March 2022 • Gender and Multidimensional Poverty in Forced Displacement: Measuring What Matters - February 2022 • Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement - January 2022 • Intimate Partner Violence and Forced Displacement - December 2021 Blogs • How often is gender addressed in research on forced displacement? - March 2023 • How new tools can more accurately measure the intersection of forced displacement, gender, and poverty - March 2022 • Want to keep internally displaced people in Somalia out of poverty? Increase women’s economic opportunities - March 2022 • Women and Girls are the Right Investment - February 2022 • Does armed conflict increase a woman’s risk of suffering intimate partner violence? - May 2020 Additional publications • Poverty, Gender, and Displacement: A Policy Brief - February 2022 • Forced Displacement and Violence Against Women: A Policy Brief) - December 2021 • How gender norms influence school enrolment and domestic work for Syrian refugee adolescents in Jordan - November 2021 • Papers in the UN report Shining a Light on Forced Displacement - September 2021 • Proposed Approach for The Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement Research Program • Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement Research Program Overview • Data Options for Assessing Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement: A Background Note Social cohesion global study Events • Presentation at the Global Refugee Forum - December 2023 • Module 7 of the Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement training program - November 2023 • Social Cohesion and Forced Displacement: A Synthesis of New Research - January 2023 • Forced Displacement and Social Cohesion: Lessons to Help Communities Thrive (video) - December 2022 60 Annex 4  |  List of Dissemination Products and Activities, by Research Pillar  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement • Forced Displacement and Social Cohesion: New Evidence from Europe - December 2022 • What it Takes to Return: UN Peacekeeping and the Safe Return of Displaced People - Juba, South Sudan – December 2022 • Incorporating Findings into Practice - Addressing Social Cohesion challenges when Integrating Service Delivery - Kampala, Uganda – November 2022 • Social Cohesion and Forced Displacement in Uganda - Kampala, Uganda – November 2022 • Understanding Social Cohesion: Internally Displaced People and Their Hosts - October 2022 • ECA Talk on Forced Displacement - June 2022 • Inclusive Policies for Migrants and Refugees - June 2022 • The Social and Economic Benefits of Refugee Arrivals - March 2022 Blogs • Inclusive policies are needed to help refugees and host communities flourish - September 2022 • The social and economic benefits of refugee arrivals - March 2022 Social protection global study Events • Module 5 of the Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement training program – October 2023 • Presentation at the Centre for Social Protection International Conference: Reimagining Social Protection in a time of Global Uncertainty – September 2023 • Social Protection Responses to Forced Displacement in Colombia - June 2023 • Presentation of Greece findings at the Hellenic Sociological Society (in Greek) - Athens, Greece - October 2022 • Fragility forum podcast - February 2022 Blogs • Promoting gender equality: linking social protection and humanitarian assistance for displaced populations - March 2023 • Quick Wins aren’t the way to coherence between social protection and humanitarian assistance in Cameroon - June 2022 • Using WhatsApp to collect data on displaced Venezuelans, internally displaced populations, and host communities in Colombia during COVID-19 lockdowns - June 2022 • Protecting the Most Vulnerable and Promoting Integration in Colombia - October 2021 61 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Annex 4  |  List of Dissemination Products and Activities, by Research Pillar Education global study Events • Module 6 of the Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement training program - November 2023 • Presentation for FCDO education and humanitarian advisers, as part of the Education Evidence Spotlight Series – November 2023 • Including Forcibly Displaced Children in National Education Systems: Evidence on What Works - February 2023 • ‘Evidence in Action’ UNHCR event featuring two BEoFD presentations: Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works and Integrating Refugees and IDPs into National Education Systems: Three Challenges and Approaches - September 2022 Blogs • What is the cost of educating refugee children? A well-funded, effective education system for all - February 2023 • What works to support inclusion: Four key findings from country case studies - February 2023 Health global study Events • Module 4 of the Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement training program – October 2023 • ‘Roundtable event’ at Georgetown University – April 2023 • ‘Roundtable event’ at Universidad de los Andes – Bogota, Colombia - March 2023 • FCDO internal briefing for FCDO health advisers – February 2023 • The Big Questions in Forced Displacement and Health - Geneva, Switzerland – December 2022 • Health in Unstable Times - Strengthening Health Systems during Protracted Displacement - New York, USA – December 2022 • COVID-19 & Refugee Health Care Workers in Forced Displacement Settings: Challenges and Opportunities - July 2021 • Family Violence Prevention in the Context of COVID-19 and Forced Displacement - May 2021 Jobs global study Events • Presentation at Global Refugee Forum and launch of the Executive Summary - December 2023 • Module 8 of the Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement training program – November 2023 • Presentation to FCDO Jordan – March 2023 • Labor Market Impacts and Jobs’ (event with the Joint Data Center) - Copenhagen, Denmark – November 2022 Blogs • How much does it cost to support jobs in conflict and displacement contexts? - January 2023 Impact evaluations Events • Training session Improving Program Impacts in the Context of the Forcibly Displaced as part of the Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement training • Inclusive Housing for Displaced and Vulnerable Populations (internal FCDO event) - June 2023 • Methods Innovations for Research with Highly Mobile Populations: WhatsApp as a Research Tool (internal FCDO event) - March 2023 62 Annex 4  |  List of Dissemination Products and Activities, by Research Pillar  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement • Emerging Insights on the “Graduation Approach” for Displaced Populations - February 2023 • Livelihood Impacts of Refugees on Host Communities: Evidence from Ethiopia (presentation) - Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – February 2023 • Translating research into action: Lessons from the humanitarian sector (UNHCR workshop) - September 2022 • Bangladesh impact evaluation: YouTube video - August 2022 • Information and women participation in community driven development projects in the presence of refugees: evidence from Kenya (presentation at Africa Evidence Week) - June 2022 • Service Delivery in Refugee Hosting Areas - co-hosted by the Center for Global Development and YARID - Kampala, Uganda – June 2022 • The Psychosocial Value of Work – Evidence from Refugee Camps in Bangladesh - May 2022 • Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement Response Programs: the Role of Impact Evaluations - May 2022 • The Afghanistan graduation program impact evaluation (podcast) - February 2022 • Uganda impact evaluation: presentation at Joint Data Center research conference - January 2022 Policy briefs • Building Resilient Livelihoods: The Enduring Impacts of Afghanistan’s Targeting the Ultra-Poor Program (policy brief) - November 2023 • Impact Evaluations in Forced Displacement Contexts: A Guide for Practitioners + Blog - April 2023 • Impact Evaluation of a New Coaching Curriculum in Lebanon - 2020 Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement Events • Policies to Create Jobs and Community: Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement (linked event of Global Refugee Forum) - Geneva, Switzerland – December 2023 • Launch of program brief for Building the Evidence – December 2023 • Module 1 the Learning from the Evidence on Forced Displacement training – September 2023 • Forced Displacement and the Role of Research in the 21st Century - Geneva, Switzerland – June 2023 • Program Presentation at Migration Summer School, Migration Policy Center, European University Institute - July 2023 • Ethiopia Forced Displacement Research and Policy - Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – June 2023 • Joint Data Center Workshop on Innovative Tools and Data Science - Copenhagen, Denmark – November 2022 • Venezuelan Migrants and Refugees in Brazil: Challenges to integration and local impact - September 2021 • Do vouchers work? The impact of humanitarian assistance on displaced people in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo - June 2021 • Prison or Sanctuary? An Evaluation of Camps for Syrian Refugees - May 2021 Blogs • Measuring the poverty of forcibly displaced populations: Challenges, progress, and prospects - July 2023 • New machine learning method provides real-time estimates of local food prices in crisis-affected areas - April 2023 • Theory and evidence on the impact of refugees on host communities - March 2023 • Do host communities see improved livelihoods through agricultural diversification and commercialization as a response to refugees’ inflow? - June 2022 63 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Annex 4  |  Bibliography Bibliography Admasu, Y., Alkire, S., & Scharlin-Pettee, S. (2021). Multidimensional Poverty, Gender, and Forced Displacement: A Multi- Country, Intrahousehold Analysis in Sub-Saharan Africa. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/548251635476246875/Multidimensional-Poverty-Gender-and-Forced-Displacement-A-Multi-Country- Intrahousehold-Analysis-in-Sub-Saharan-Africa Admasu, Y., Alkire, S., Ekhator-Mobayode, U. E., Kovesdi, F., Santamaria, J., & Scharlin-Pettee, S. (2021). A Multi-Country Analysis of Multidimensional Poverty in Contexts of Forced Displacement. Retrieved from https://documents. worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/492181635479693932/a-multi-country- analysis-of-multidimensional-poverty-in-contexts-of-forced-displacement Agüero, J. M., & Fasola, E. (2022). Distributional Policies and Social Cohesion in a High-Unemployment Setting. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099248306232210489/IDU05fde194806af0042ac0855a001f824cc60ff Aiken, E., Bedoya, G., Blumenstock, J., & Coville, A. (2023). Program targeting with machine learning and mobile phone data: Evidence from an anti-poverty intervention in Afghanistan. Journal of Development Economics, 161. doi:https://doi. org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.103016 Albarosa, & Elsner. (2023). Forced Migration and Social Cohesion: Evidence from the 2015/16 Mass Inflow in Germany. World Development, 167. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106228 Allen, W., Ruiz, I., & Vargas Silva, C. (2022). Policy Preferences in Response to Large Migration Inflows. Retrieved from http:// documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099025205182230856/IDU094698ddb0bb4604a3f0bf4a0122ceed14ed5 Andree, B. P. (2021). Publication: Estimating Food Price Inflation from Partial Surveys. Retrieved from https://openknowledge. worldbank.org/entities/publication/4b9e74a0-dc5e-55e4-8e05-8aa79eda31c0 Andrée, B. P., & Pape, U. J. (2023). Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea. Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/90ce600b-845b-40ce-875b-d3498c88ef41 Ayenew, A. B. (2021). Welfare Impact of Hosting Refugees in Ethiopia. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/ curated/en/895691617713103514/Welfare-Impact-of-Hosting-Refugees-in-Ethiopia Azzi-Huck, K., & Moussa, W. (2021). Cluster randomized trial of teacher coaching: Evidence from Lebanon’s COACHing model. doi:https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.6981-1.0 Barberis, V., Brouwer, L., von der Goltz, J., Hobden, T., Saidi, M., Schuettler, K., & Seyfert, K. (2022). Publication: Cost-Effectiveness of Jobs Projects in Conflict and Forced Displacement Contexts. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38450 Barberis, V., Brouwer, L., von der Goltz, J., Hodben, T., Saidi, M., Schuettler, K., & Seyfert, K. (2022). Cost-Effectiveness of Jobs Projects in Conflict and Forced Displacement Contexts. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38450 Baseler, T., Ginn, T., Hakiza, R., Ogude-Chambert, H., & Woldemikael, O. (2023). Can Redistribution Change Policy Views? Aid and Attitudes toward Refugees in Uganda. Retrieved from https://www.cgdev.org/publication/can-redistribution- change-policy-views-aid-and-attitudes-toward-refugees-uganda Bedoya Arguelles, G., Belyakova, Y., Coville, A., Escande, T., Isaqzadeh, M., & Ndiaye, A. (2023). The Enduring Impacts of a Big Push during Multiple Crises: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank. org/curated/en/099837211062311087/IDU0e486b8ed0e7a104d230a60d0848c87baeeb1 Beltramo, T., Dang, H.-A., & Sarr, I. (2020). Estimating Poverty among Refugee Populations: A Cross-Survey Imputation Exercise for Chad. (n. W. Policy Research working paper, Ed.) Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/511711588016782589/Estimating-Poverty-among-Refugee-Populations-A-Cross-Survey-Imputation-Exercise-for-Chad Bertinelli, L., Comertpay, R., & Maystadt, J.-F. (2022). Refugees, Diversity and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa. Retrieved from http:// documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099935405182291733/IDU0d2bb8dd60616d040560b5280feaf23c219b2 Betts, A., Stierna, M., Omata, N., & Sterck, O. (2022). Social Cohesion and Refugee-Host Interactions: Evidence from East Africa. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/598681643291911822/Social-Cohesion-and- Refugee-Host-Interactions-Evidence-from-East-Africa Bo, A. (2021). Publication: Estimating Food Price Inflation from Partial Surveys. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle. net/10986/36778 Bogale, Y. A. (2021). Forced Displacement, Gender, and Livelihoods: Refugees in Ethiopia. Retrieved from http://documents. worldbank.org/curated/en/754711638209414704/Forced-Displacement-Gender-and-Livelihoods-Refugees-in-Ethiopia Bove, V., Di Salvatore, J., & Elia, L. (2022). What it Takes to Return: UN Peacekeeping and the Safe Return of Displaced People. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099233206232221153/IDU0d33c239802be9041020bdcc0e8f886101f22 64 Annex 4  |  Bibliography  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement Bruck, T., & Stojetz, W. (2021). Data Options for Assessing Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement: A Background Note. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/656131624660922839/Data-Options-for-Assessing- Gender-Dimensions-of-Forced-Displacement-A-Background-Note Burde, D., Coombes, A., de Hoop, T., Guven, O., Okhido, O., Ring, H., Udayakumar Holla, C. (2023). Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Evidence Synthesis and Intervention Map. Retrieved from http:// documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099183002142332489/P1671360cca7ce0f60b1810962c55c8528d Burde, D., Coombes, A., de Hoop, T., Haddad, Y., Chinmaya, U., Lahmann, H., & Ring, H. (2023). Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Case Study Summary. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank. org/curated/en/099183102142314063/P16713608e166a00309cef0bec6a1bb0916 Ceriani, L., & Verme, P. (2018). Risk Preferences and the Decision to Flee Conflict. Retrieved from http://www.ecineq.org/ milano/WP/ECINEQ2018-460.pdf Coniglio, N., Peragine, V., & Vurchio, D. (2023). The effects of refugees’ camps on hosting areas: Social conflicts and economic growth. World Development, 168. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.10627 Coombes, A., Garcia Lozano, M., Hoop, T. d., & Udayakumar Holla, C. (2023). Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Colombia Case Study. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/099183002142316928/P16713608ee0230a20a62a09201adee1f74 Coombes, A., Haddad, Y. E., & Ring, H. (2023). Forced Displacement and Education: Building the Evidence for What Works - Chad Case Study. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099183002142332226/ P1671360d70b6000c08f1a0a4af4d2e53df Coville, A., Bedoya Arguelles, G., Shapiro, J., Haushofer, J., & Isaqzadeh, M. (2019). No Household Left Behind: Afghanistan Targeting the Ultra Poor Impact Evaluation. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/855831560172245349/No-Household-Left-Behind-Afghanistan-Targeting-the-Ultra-Poor-Impact-Evaluation Dampha, N. K., Salemi, C., & Polasky, S. (2022). Rohingya Refugee Camps and Forest Loss in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh: An Inquiry Using Remote Sensing and Econometric Approaches. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/989741646064634353/Rohingya-Refugee-Camps-and-Forest-Loss-in-Cox-s-Bazar-Bangladesh-An-Inquiry-Using- Remote-Sensing-and-Econometric-Approaches Denny,E.K.,Dow,D.,Levy,G.,&Villamizar-Chaparro,M.(2022).ExtortionandCivicEngagementamongGuatemalanDeportees.Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099730304262235605/IDU02026f74207fd304e610a1160b8141ae76d28 Ekhator-Mobayode, U. E., Kelly, J. T., Rubin, A. H., & Arango, D. J. (2021). Intimate Partner Violence and Household Decision Making Autonomy: Effects of the Malian Conflict on Women. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/478241635473536616/Intimate-Partner-Violence-and-Household-Decision-Making-Autonomy-Effects-of-the- Malian-Conflict-on-Women Elice, P. (2021). Impact Evaluations in Forced Displacement Contexts: A Guide for Practitioners. Retrieved from https://www. unhcr.org/people-forced-to-flee-book/wp-content/uploads/sites/137/2021/11/Paola-Elice_Impact-Evaluations-in- Forced-Displacement-Contexts-A-Guide-for-Practitioners.pdf Elice, P., Martínez Flores, F., & Reichert, A. R. (2023). Religious Terrorism, Forced Migration, and Women’s Empowerment: Evidence from the Boko Haram Insurgency. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/099849108222346867/IDU0b05294830843f04de30bab00ffebb49275a0 Esper, H., Krishnan, N., & Wieser, C. (2022). More Is Better: Evaluating the Impact of a Variation in Cash Assistance on the Reintegration Outcomes of Returning Afghan Refugees. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/191991641827471161/More-Is-Better-Evaluating-the-Impact-of-a-Variation-in-Cash-Assistance-on-the- Reintegration-Outcomes-of-Returning-Afghan-Refugees Ferguson, N. T., Wolfe, R. J., Amine, L., Ramadi, E., & Shahin, L. (2022). Building Stability Between Host and Refugee Communities: Evidence from a TVET Program in Jordan and Lebanon. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37593 Foltz, J. D., & Shibuya, S. (2022). The Effects of Internally Displaced Peoples on Consumption and Inequality in Mali. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099012105182212190/IDU17ec2687314aa31482219ba01b58ebe2daebb Garcia, S., Ham, A., Dedios, M., Guarin, A., Majerowicz, S., Martinez Gomez, M., Lowe, C. (2022). Social protection responses to forced displacement in Colombia. Retrieved from https://odi.org/en/publications/social-protection-responses-to- forced-displacement-in-colombia/ Ginn,T.,&Aksoy,C.(2022).AttitudesandPoliciestowardRefugees:EvidencefromLow-andMiddle-IncomeCountries.Retrievedfrom http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099736203242266938/IDU018ed89c00b34c04bb00ad9f04fb78818b0e3 Global Compact on Refugees. (2018). Retrieved from https://www.unhcr.org/us/about-unhcr/who-we-are/global-compact- refugees Grey Meral, A., & Both, N. (2021). Social protection and forcibly displaced people: a literature review. Retrieved from https:// odi.org/en/publications/social-protection-and-forcibly-displaced-people-a-literature-review/ 65 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Annex 4  |  Bibliography Hagen-Zanker, J., & Salomon, H. (2022). What can existing microdata tell us about transfer receipt among host and displaced populations? Retrieved from https://odi.org/en/publications/what-can-existing-microdata-tell-us-about-transfer- receipt-among-host-and-displaced-populations/ Hagen-Zanker, J., Gray Meral, A., Commins, S., & Lowe, C. (2022). Linking social protection and humanitarian assistance: A toolkit to support social cohesion in displacement settings. Retrieved from https://odi.org/en/publications/linking- social-protection-and-humanitarian-assistance-a-toolkit-to-support-social-cohesion-in-displacement-settings/ Hamner, L., Arango, D., Santamaria, J., & Rubiano, E. (2020). How does poverty differ among refugees? Taking a gender lens to the data on Syrian refugees in Jordan. Middle East Development Journal, 12. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.108 0/17938120.2020.1753995 Hanmer, L. C., Rubiano Matulevich, E. C., & Santamaria, J. (2021). Differences in Household Composition: Hidden Dimensions of Poverty and Displacement in Somalia. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/163081635436026650/ Differences-in-Household-Composition-Hidden-Dimensions-of-Poverty-and-Displacement-in-Somalia Hanmer, L., Rubiano-Matulevich, E., & Ekhator-Mobayode, U. (2022). The effect of armed conflict on intimate partner violence: Evidence from the Boko Haram insurgency in Nigeria. World Development, 153. doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j. worlddev.2021.105780 Hoseini, M., & Dideh, M. J. (2022). How Do Shared Experiences of Economic Shocks Impact Refugees and Host Communities Evidence from Afghan Refugees in Iran. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/311771643289939369/How-Do-Shared-Experiences-of-Economic-Shocks-Impact-Refugees-and-Host- Communities-Evidence-from-Afghan-Refugees-in-Iran Kadigo, M., Diallo, N., & Maydstadt, J. (2022). How to Cope with a Refugee Shock Evidence from Uganda. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/104311646166101462/How-to-Cope-with-a-Refugee-Shock-Evidence- from-Uganda Kelley, E., Lane, G., Zahra, F., & Hussam, R. (2022). The Psychosocial Value of Employment: Evidence from a Refugee Camp. American Economic Review, 112, 3694-3724. doi:10.1257/aer.20211616 Kelly, J. T., Holmes, M. O., Gibbons, N., Matabaro, A., & Voors, M. J. (2021). Conflict, Displacement and Overlapping Vulnerabilities: Understanding Risk Factors for Gender-Based Violence among Displaced Women in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/528551635471118716/Conflict- Displacement-and-Overlapping-Vulnerabilities-Understanding-Risk-Factors-for-Gender-Based-Violence-among- Displaced-Women-in-Eastern-Democratic-Republic-of-Congo Kelly, J. T., Rubin, A. H., Ekhator-Mobayode, U. E., & Arango, D. J. (2021). The Risk That Travels with You: Links between Forced Displacement, Conflict and Intimate Partner Violence in Colombia and Liberia. Retrieved from http://documents. worldbank.org/curated/en/449471635478676087/The-Risk-That-Travels-with-You-Links-between-Forced- Displacement-Conflict-and-Intimate-Partner-Violence-in-Colombia-and-Liberia Klugman, J. (2022). The Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement – A Synthesis of New Research. Retrieved from https:// documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/895601643214591612/the-gender- dimensions-of-forced-displacement-a-synthesis-of-new-research Klugman, J. (2022). The Gender Dimensions of Forced Displacement: A Synthesis of New Research. Retrieved from http:// documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/895601643214591612/The-Gender-Dimensions-of-Forced-Displacement-A- Synthesis-of-New-Research Kovac, D., Efendic, A., & Shapiro, J. N. (2022). Forced Displacement, Exposure to Conflict and Long-run Education and Income Inequality: Evidence from Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/ curated/en/099748104262212564/IDU0044f959d03d6f046b40b6970831a4f7cab42 Krafft, C. G., Ragui, A., & Pastoor, I. (2021). How Do Gender Norms Shape Education and Domestic Work Outcomes The Case of Syrian Refugee Adolescents in Jordan. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/914761635472358174/How-Do-Gender-Norms-Shape-Education-and-Domestic-Work-Outcomes-The-Case-of- Syrian-Refugee-Adolescents-in-Jordan Krafft, C., Ragui, A., & Pastoor, I. (2021). How Do Gender Norms Shape Education and Domestic Work Outcomes The Case of Syrian Refugee Adolescents in Jordan. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/914761635472358174/How- Do-Gender-Norms-Shape-Education-and-Domestic-Work-Outcomes-The-Case-of-Syrian-Refugee-Adolescents-in-Jordan Levine, S., Both, N., Salomon, H., Socpa, A., & Fomekong, F. (2022). Integrating assistance to the displaced into a social protection system in Cameroon. An ideal, but in whose interests? Retrieved from https://odi.org/en/publications/ integrating-assistance-to-the-displaced-into-a-social-protection-system-in-cameroon-an-ideal-but-in-whose- interests/ Lowe, C., & Cherrier, C. (2022). Linking social protection and humanitarian assistance: Guidance to assess the factors and actors that determine an optimal approach in a displacement setting. A toolkit. Retrieved from https://odi.org/en/ 66 Annex 4  |  Bibliography  |  Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement publications/linking-humanitarian-assistance-and-social-protection-guidance-to-assess-the-factors-and-actors- that-determine-an-optimal-approach-in-a-displacement-setting/ Lowe, C., Cherrier, C., & Holmes, R. (2022). Linking humanitarian assistance and social protection in response to forced displacement: an analytical framework. Retrieved from https://odi.org/en/publications/linking-humanitarian- assistance-and-social-protection-in-response-to-forced-displacement-an-analytical-framework/ Ludolph, L., Šedová, B., & Talevi, M. (2022). Inequality and Security in the Aftermath of Internal Population Displacement Shocks: Evidence from Nigeria. 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How Can Vulnerable Internally Displaced Persons Be Transitioned from Humanitarian Assistance to Social Protection ? Evidence from Iraq. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank. org/curated/en/099523406212233544/IDU0490e4323084e104adf08c7b02ee3f7cd869d Parry, J. M., & Aymerich, O. (2022). Local Peace Agreements and the Return of IDPs with Perceived ISIL Affiliation in Iraq. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/505801643290927050/Local-Peace-Agreements-and- the-Return-of-IDPs-with-Perceived-ISIL-Affiliation-in-Iraq Phadera, L., Sharma, D., & Grant, M. (2020). Iraq’s Universal Public Distribution System: Utilization and Impacts During Displacement. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/239031582135436157/Iraqs-Universal- Public-Distribution-System-Utilization-and-Impacts-During-Displacement Pham, P., O’Mealia, T., Wei, C., Bindu, K. K., Makoond, A., & Vinck, P. T. (2022). Hosting New Neighbors: Perspectives of Host Communities on Social Cohesion in Eastern DRC. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/099005106232213093/IDU0ef49c6600ba1e04eca0a30c04d1e2aa727f4 Pham, P., O’Mealia, T., Wei, C., Bindu, K. K., Makoond, A., & Vinck, P. T. (2022). Hosting New Neighbors: Perspectives of Host Communities on Social Cohesion in Eastern DRC. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/ en/099005106232213093/IDU0ef49c6600ba1e04eca0a30c04d1e2aa727f4 Rozo, S., Ibanez, A., & Bahar, D. (2021). Give me your tired and your poor: Impact of a large-scale amnesty program for undocumented refugees. Journal of Development Economics, 151. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102652 Rubiano Matulevich, E. C. (2021). Do Gender Norms Become Less Traditional with Displacement The Case of Colombia. 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Retrieved from https:// documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/498351617118028819/pdf/Integration-of-Venezuelan-Refugees-and- Migrants-in-Brazil.pdf Shamsuddin, M., Acosta, P., Battaglin Schwengber, R., Fix, J., & Pirani, N. (2021). Economic and Fiscal Impacts of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/865871633611414287/ Economic-and-Fiscal-Impacts-of-Venezuelan-Refugees-and-Migrants-in-Brazil Shamsuddin, M., Acosta, P., Battaglin Schwengber, R., Fix, J., & Pirani, N. (2022). The Labor Market Impacts of Venezuelan Refugees and Migrants in Brazil. Retrieved from https://docs.iza.org/dp15384.pdf Social protection responses to forced displacement in Colombia. (2022). Retrieved from https://odi.org/en/publications/ social-protection-responses-to-forced-displacement-in-colombia/ Stojetz, W., & Brück, T. (2021). The Double Burden of Female Protracted Displacement: Survey Evidence on Gendered Livelihoods in El Fasher, Darfur. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/582571635477505457/The-Double- Burden-of-Female-Protracted-Displacement-Survey-Evidence-on-Gendered-Livelihoods-in-El-Fasher-Darfur 67 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   |  Annex 4  |  Bibliography Stojetz, W., & Tilman, B. (2021). The Double Burden of Female Protracted Displacement: Survey Evidence on Gendered Livelihoods in El Fasher, Darfur. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/582571635477505457/The-Double- Burden-of-Female-Protracted-Displacement-Survey-Evidence-on-Gendered-Livelihoods-in-El-Fasher-Darfur Tellez, J. F., & Balcells, L. (2022). Social Cohesion, Economic Security, and Forced Displacement in the Long-Run: Evidence from Rural Colombia. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099539304262234248/ IDU015a9be2b0af470434608d7404a72dfd1d88a The Big Questions in Forced Displacement and Health. (2022). 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Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106203 68 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement © SAMI AL-ANSI / WORLD BANK 69 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement   70 Changing the Narrative on Forced Displacement © JOSE CENDON/ ECHO 71 Building the Evidence on Forced Displacement