1 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d P r o v i d i n g S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n E a s t e r n E u r o p e a n d C e n t r a l A s i a 2014/29 90887 A KNOWLEDGE NOTE SERIES FOR THE ENERGY & EXTRACTIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE THE BOTTOM LINE Tracking Progress Toward Providing Sustainable Energy Where does the region stand on the quest for sustainable for All in Eastern Europe and Central Asia energy for all? The region has near-universal access to Why is this important? databases—technical measures. This note is based on that frame- electricity, and 93 percent of work (World Bank 2014). SE4ALL will publish an updated version of the population has access Tracking regional trends is critical to monitoring the GTF in 2015. to nonsolid fuel for cooking. the progress of the Sustainable Energy for All The primary indicators and data sources that the GTF uses to Despite relatively abundant (SE4ALL) initiative track progress toward the three SE4ALL goals are summarized below. hydropower, the share Energy access. Access to modern energy services is measured of renewables in energy In declaring 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for by the percentage of the population with an electricity connection consumption has remained All,” the UN General Assembly established three global objectives and the percentage of the population with access to nonsolid fuels.2 relatively low. Very high energy to be accomplished by 2030: to ensure universal access to modern These data are collected using household surveys and reported intensity levels have come energy services,1 to double the 2010 share of renewable energy in in the World Bank’s Global Electrification Database and the World down rapidly. The big questions the global energy mix, and to double the global rate of improvement Health Organization’s Household Energy Database. are how renewables will evolve in energy efficiency relative to the period 1990–2010 (SE4ALL 2012). Renewable energy. The share of renewable energy in the energy when energy demand picks up The SE4ALL objectives are global, with individual countries setting mix is measured by the percentage of total final energy consumption again and whether recent rates their own national targets in a way that is consistent with the overall that is derived from renewable energy resources. Data used to of decline in energy intensity spirit of the initiative. Because countries differ greatly in their ability calculate this indicator are obtained from energy balances published will continue. to pursue the three objectives, some will make more rapid progress by the International Energy Agency and the United Nations. in one area while others will excel elsewhere, depending on their Energy efficiency. The rate of improvement of energy efficiency is respective starting points and comparative advantages as well as on approximated by the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of energy the resources and support that they are able to marshal. Elisa Portale is an intensity, where energy intensity is the ratio of total primary energy energy economist in To sustain momentum for the achievement of the SE4ALL consumption to gross domestic product (GDP) measured in purchas- the Energy Sector objectives, a means of charting global progress to 2030 is needed. ing power parity (PPP) terms. Data used to calculate energy intensity Management Assistance The World Bank and the International Energy Agency led a consor- are obtained from energy balances published by the International Program (ESMAP) of the tium of 15 international agencies to establish the SE4ALL Global World Bank’s Energy and Extractives Energy Agency and the United Nations. Tracking Framework (GTF), which provides a system for regular Global Practice. This note uses data from the GTF to provide a regional and global reporting, based on rigorous—yet practical, given available country perspective on the three pillars of SE4ALL for Eastern Joeri de Wit is an energy economist in 1 The universal access goal will be achieved when every person on the planet has access the Bank’s Energy and to modern energy services provided through electricity, clean cooking fuels, clean heating fuels, Extractives Global and energy for productive use and community services. The term “modern cooking solutions” refers to solutions that involve electricity or gaseous fuels (including liquefied petroleum gas), 2 Solid fuels are defined to include both traditional biomass (wood, charcoal, agricultural Practice. or solid/liquid fuels paired with stoves exhibiting overall emissions rates at or near those of and forest residues, dung, and so on), processed biomass (such as pellets and briquettes), and liquefied petroleum gas (www.sustainableenergyforall.org). other solid fuels (such as coal and lignite). 2 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d P r o v i d i n g S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n E a s t e r n E u r o p e a n d C e n t r a l A s i a Europe and Central Asia (ECA).3 The first section considers energy (28 million people) were still Figure 1. Electrification rates access. The following sections look at the renewable energy and using solid fuel for cooking. by country, 2010 energy efficiency goals. All data underlying the information in this The challenge of providing Russia 100 note can be found online at http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/ access to nonsolid fuel Turkey 100 sustainable-energy-for-all. remains significant in Uzbekistan 100 Romania 100 countries such as Romania, “The share of the Kazakhstan 100 What progress has been made toward universal Serbia, and Uzbekistan, Serbia 100 population with access to which have access deficits access to energy services? Belarus Bulgaria 100 100 electricity rose from 98 of around 3–4 million The region has near universal access to electricity, people (figure 2). Tajikistan 100 percent (386 million people) Kyrgyz Rep. 100 and 93 percent of the population has access to The share of the Turkmenistan 100 in 1990 to approximately region’s population with Georgia 100 nonsolid fuel for cooking Lithuania 100 100 percent (406 million access to nonsolid fuel Albania 100 people) in 2010. Access to Achieving universal access to modern energy services is the “first for cooking rose from 77 Latvia 100 among equals” of the three complementary goals of SE4ALL. Despite percent (304 million people) Montenegro 100 electricity in the region is progress in the region, deficits remain. in 1990 to approximately 93 Kosovo 100 thus well above the global Electricity. Access to electricity in flexible, reliable, and sustain- Ukraine 99.8 percent (378 million people) Armenia 99.8 rate.” able forms brings a range of social and economic benefits, enabling in 2010. Regional access Bosnia-Herzegovina 99.7 people to leap from poverty to a better future, enhancing the quality of to nonsolid fuel is greater Azerbaijan 99.5 Macedonia 99.0 household life, and stimulating the broader economy. In 2010, the ECA than the global access Moldova 98.6 region as a whole had an electrification rate of close to 100 percent. rate, which rose from 47 population with access (percent) No country had an access rate lower than 98 percent (figure 1). percent (2.5 billion people) The share of the population with access to electricity rose from Source: World Bank 2014. in 1990 to approximately 59 98 percent (386 million people) in 1990 to approximately 100 percent percent (4.1 billion people) (406 million people) in 2010. Access to electricity in the region is thus in 2010. well above the global rate, which increased from 76 percent to 83 Between 1990 and 2010, 74 million people in the region gained percent over the period. access to nonsolid fuels, representing 5 percent of the global Cooking fuels. The World Health Organization estimates that increase in access to nonsolid fuels. in 2012 about 4.3 million deaths occurred worldwide because of Turkey made rapid progress by extending access to nonsolid exposure to household air pollution caused by smoke from the fuels to an average of 1.4 million people each year between 1990 incomplete combustion of fuels such as wood, coal, and kerosene. and 2010, an annual growth rate of 1.9 percent (figure 3). Over the Use of such fuels for cooking also poses substantial risks to safety, same period, Azerbaijan and Tajikistan achieved the highest annual causing burns and injuries. growth rates—nearly 3 percent—while the global average stood at In 2010, 93 percent of population (378 million people) of the ECA 1.1 percent. region had access to nonsolid fuel for cooking, whereas 7 percent 3 For a list of countries that fall under Eastern Europe and Central Asia according to the World Bank’s regional classification system, see http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-and- lending-groups 3 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d P r o v i d i n g S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n E a s t e r n E u r o p e a n d C e n t r a l A s i a Figure 2. Access to nonsolid fuels by country, 2010 a. Access to nonsolid fuel (%) b. Deficit in access to nonsolid fuel (millions of people without access) Turkmenistan 100.0 Turkmenistan 0 Belarus 99.7 Belarus 0 “Turkey made rapid Russia 99.7 Latvia 0.1 Ukraine 97.1 Montenegro 0.2 progress by extending Turkey 96.7 Lithuania 0.2 access to nonsolid fuels to Latvia 94.8 Moldova 0.4 Azerbaijan 93.3 Russia 0.5 an average of 1.4 million Bulgaria 93.1 Bulgaria 0.5 people each year between Lithuania 93.1 Armenia 0.6 Kazakhstan 91.1 Azerbaijan 0.6 1990 and 2010, an annual Moldova 89.0 Macedonia 0.7 growth rate of 1.9 percent.” Uzbekistan 88.6 Albania 1.2 Romania 82.8 Ukraine 1.3 Armenia 81.5 Kazakhstan 1.4 Montenegro 71.9 Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.7 Serbia 67.9 Kyrgyz Republic 1.8 Macedonia 67.3 Georgia 2.0 Kyrgyz Republic 66.3 Tajikistan 2.4 Tajikistan 65.5 Turkey 2.4 Albania 61.4 Uzbekistan 3.1 Bosnia and Herzegovina 54.7 Serbia 3.2 Georgia 54.3 Romania 3.7 Source: World Bank 2014. Figure 3. The 15 countries with the greatest annual increases in access to nonsolid fuels, 1990–2010 4 annual growth in access (%) Annual incremental population growth 3 -1.5 Annual incremental access growth Annual growth in access (%) population (million) 2 1.0 0.5 1 0 0 an a an an ne n nia a ia an . us ia ia y ep rke ssi rbi sta -0.5 n an on lar t aij ist ist rai ma me zR kis Se Ru Alb d kh Tu erb jik en Be Uk ce be rgy Ro Ar za Ta rkm Ma Az Uz Ka Ky Tu Source: World Bank 2014. 4 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d P r o v i d i n g S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n E a s t e r n E u r o p e a n d C e n t r a l A s i a Figure 4.  Total final consumption of renewable energy by Figure 5. Renewable energy’s share of total final energy technology, 1990–2010 consumption, 2010 2.0 6 Other RE World Hydro 1.8 ECA 5 Modern biomass 1.6 Traditional biomass “Half of the countries in 1.4 4 RE share in TFEC Tajikistan 1.2 Montenegro exajoules ECA derive 20 percent or percent 1.0 3 Georgia more of their final energy 0.8 Albania 2 needs from renewables. 0.6 Latvia 0.4 Macedonia, FYR However, the regional 1 0.2 Lithuania average is pulled down by 0 0 Kyrgyz Republic 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 the larger economies.” Kosovo Serbia Source: World Bank 2014. Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Turkey How has the share of renewable energy evolved? Armenia Traditional biomass Despite relatively abundant hydropower, Belarus Modern biomass Hydro Moldova the share of renewables in energy consumption has Russian Federation Liquid biofuels Wind remained relatively low Azerbaijan Solar Ukraine Biogas Global consumption of renewable energy grew from 40 exajoules (EJ) Uzbekistan Geothermal in 1990 to almost 60 EJ in 2010. Meanwhile, global total final energy Kazakhstan Waste consumption (TFEC) grew at a comparable pace of 1.1 percent during Turkmenistan 1990–2000 and 2.0 percent during 2000–10. As a result, the share of 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 renewable energy in the global energy mix remained relatively stable, percent rising from 16.6 percent in 1990 to 18 percent in 2010. Source: World Bank 2014. The share of renewable energy in the regional mix is much lower, remaining relatively stable at around 5 percent of TFEC between 1990 and 2010 (figure 4). Hydropower accounted for half this share, By country, the share of renewables in TFEC varied substantially the remainder being divided equally between traditional and modern in 2010 from 0 percent in Turkmenistan to almost 60 percent in biomass.4 Tajikistan. Half of the countries in ECA derive 20 percent or more of their final energy needs from renewables. However, the regional 4 The UN Food and Agriculture Organization defines traditional biomass as “woodfuels, average is pulled down by the larger economies, with Russia agricultural by-products, and dung burned for cooking and heating purposes.” In developing countries, traditional biomass is still widely harvested and used in an unsustainable and unsafe accounting for 57 percent of TFEC in the region and Turkey and way. It is mostly traded informally and noncommercially. So-called modern biomass, by contrast, Ukraine 10 percent each. Where renewables account for a large is produced in a sustainable manner from solid wastes and residues from agriculture and share it is through traditional biomass and hydropower (figure 5). forestry. The informal term “modern renewables” as used in this note denotes all renewables except for traditional biomass. 5 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d P r o v i d i n g S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n E a s t e r n E u r o p e a n d C e n t r a l A s i a Figure 6. Annual regional and world growth in renewable energy consumption by technology, 1990–2010 30 compound annual growth rate (%) 25.0 ECA 25 World 20 16.7 15 13.0 “The share of modern 11.1 11.4 10 7.5 renewables has increased 5.1 6.6 5 2.3 in most countries of the 1.2 1.9 0.6 0 0 0 0 0 region. The significance -5% -2.0 -2.2 Traditional Modern Hydro Geothermal Waste Liquid Solar Biogas Wind of the increase in share biomass biomass biofuels is offset, however, by the Source: World Bank 2014. fact that, between 1990 and 2010 the region’s TFEC actually declined.” Figure 7. Change in consumption of modern forms of renewable energy as a Between 1990 and 2010, the growth in con- percentage of TFEC, 1990–2000 sumption of solar and geothermal energy in ECA outstripped global growth rates, while hydro- Albania power consumption grew more slowly. Biomass Georgia Kyrgyz Republic consumption decreased over time at an annual Macedonia, FYR rate of around 2 percent (figure 6). No significant Bosnia and Herzegovina consumption of other renewable resources was Lithuania registered. Latvia The share of modern renewables has increased Armenia in most countries of the region. The significance Bulgaria Modern biomass of the increase in share is offset, however, by the Serbia Hydro fact that, between 1990 and 2010 the region’s Belarus Liquid biofuels TFEC actually declined (figure 7). Among the Moldova Wind countries shown, only Macedonia and Turkey Uzbekistan Solar Biogas show increases in TFEC over the 20-year period. Ukraine Geothermal Focusing on Turkey, modern biomass as a share of TurkeyRussian Federation Waste Kazakhstan TFEC dropped by 13 percent in 20 years, though Turkey the country further diversified its energy mix with -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 geothermal, solar, and wind power. Albania saw the percent greatest gain in penetration of modern renewable energy—some 22 percent. Source: World Bank 2014. 6 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d P r o v i d i n g S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n E a s t e r n E u r o p e a n d C e n t r a l A s i a How does the region fare on energy efficiency? of the reductions were achieved in the second decade of the period, as energy intensity remained relatively stable for the first decade. Very high energy intensity levels have come The region remains very energy intensive, consuming 11.8 MJ/$2005 down rapidly in 2010 compared with the global average of 7.9 MJ/$2005. At the Energy intensity. Globally, energy intensity decreased by –1.3 per- country level, Azerbaijan achieved remarkable improvements in “In 2010, energy intensity cent annually (in CAGR terms) over the 20 years between 1990 and energy intensity between 1990 and 2010, whereas energy intensity in varied substantially 2010. With this as the starting point for measuring future progress in Turkey, Macedonia, and Serbia remained unchanged. In 2010, energy global energy efficiency, the SE4ALL global objective is therefore an intensity varied substantially across countries, with Turkmenistan across countries, with annual reduction in energy intensity of -2.6 percent for the period using nearly seven times as many units of primary energy per unit of Turkmenistan using nearly gross domestic product as Albania (figure 8). 2010–30. seven times as many units Each year between 1990 and 2010, the energy intensity of the Energy intensity is an imperfect proxy for energy efficiency. This is of primary energy per unit region declined by an average of -2.3 percent (in CAGR terms). Most because energy intensity is affected by other factors, such as shifts of gross domestic product as Albania.” Figure 8. Level of energy intensity in 2010 and change in level, 1990–2010 a. Primary energy intensity, 2010 b. Energy intensity CAGR, 1990–2010 World 7.9 World -1.3 ECA 11.8 ECA -2.3 Albania 3.5 Azerbaijan -7.9 Turkey 4.8 Armenia -7.3 Montenegro 5.4 Belarus -5.3 Lithuania 5.7 Georgia -4.9 Azerbaijan 6.1 Lithuania -4.6 Latvia 6.4 Macedonia, FYR 6.4 Kyrgyz Republic -4.5 Georgia 6.4 Albania -4.4 Armenia 6.8 Turkmenistan -4.0 Tajikstan 7.2 Moldova -3.9 Bulgaria 8.6 Bulgaria -3.7 Serbia 9.3 Uzbekistan -3.5 Bosnia and Herzegovina 9.6 Tajikistan -3.3 Belarus 9.8 Latvia -3.2 Moldova 11.0 Kazakhstan -2.0 Kyrgyz Republic 11.2 Russian Federation -1.5 Russian Federation 14.6 Kazahstan 17.6 Ukraine -1.2 Ukraine 19.8 Turkey -0.2 Uzbekistan 23.3 Macedonia, FYR 0 Turkmenistan 23.8 Serbia 0.1 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 MJ/$2005 percent Source: World Bank 2014. 7 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d P r o v i d i n g S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n E a s t e r n E u r o p e a n d C e n t r a l A s i a Figure 9. Energy intensity by sector, 1990 and 2010 Figure 10. Energy savings owing to realized improvements in energy intensity Other sectors 7.4 World 5.5 13.5 ECA 90 Total primary energy supply 7.2 80 Primary energy savings “As a percentage of World 9.0 70 Industry 6.8 60 primary energy supply, exajoules 14.4 50 ECA 9.9 the largest savings from 40 3.3 Agriculture 30 reductions in energy World 2.1 Energy intensity 1990 20 intensity over the period ECA 6.3 Energy intensity 2010 10 2.9 0 were achieved by Armenia, 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1990 2000 2010 which saved nearly one MJ/$2005 PPP Source: World Bank 2014. and a half times the energy Source: World Bank 2014. it consumed.” in the structure of the economy over time, typically from less ener- At the country level, the Russian market stands out for the size gy-intensive agriculture to higher energy-intensive industry and then of its primary energy supply and energy savings (figure 11). However, back toward lower energy-intensive services. In ECA, improvements as a percentage of primary energy supply, the largest savings from in energy intensity within sectors, in particular between 2000 and reductions in energy intensity over the period were achieved by 2010, were offset by a shift toward more energy-intensive sectors. Armenia, which saved nearly one and a half times the energy it Within sectors, the largest absolute improvement in energy intensity consumed. occurred in sectors other than industry and agriculture (figure 9).5 Energy savings. Energy savings in a given year are calculated Where is the region headed? as the difference between (i) the energy that would have been con- sumed in that year given the GDP and the level of energy intensity The big questions are how renewables will in 1990, and (ii) actual energy consumption in that year. Energy evolve when energy demand picks up again and savings in the ECA region were achieved only after 1999 (figure 10). whether recent rates of decline in energy intensity Cumulative energy savings since 1990 were 142 EJ, while those in will continue 2010 alone amounted to 26 EJ. Monitoring progress at the regional and country level provides a much clearer picture of how the region is moving toward the SE4All goals. Access to electricity is not an issue in ECA countries. Access to 5 Final energy consumption can be broadly divided among the following major economic nonsolid fuel is still a challenge for a few countries, such as Romania. sectors: agriculture, industry, residential, transport, and services. For purposes of the Global Tracking Framework, residential, transport, and services are aggregated into a single category The penetration of renewable energy in the region is relatively labeled “other sectors” (owing to data limitations). Using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index low and remained stable between 1990 and 2010. But because decomposition Method, GTF controls for changes in economy wide energy intensity that are due to shifts in the relative weights of the industrial, agricultural, and other sectors (in $2005 energy demand was stagnant during the period, it remains to be PPP terms). 8 T r a c k i n g P r o g r e s s To wa r d P r o v i d i n g S u s ta i n a b l e E n e r g y f o r A l l i n E a s t e r n E u r o p e a n d C e n t r a l A s i a Figure 11. Cumulative primary energy supply, cumulative energy savings and cumulative energy savings as a share of cumulative MAKE FURTHER primary energy supply, 1990-2010 CONNECTIONS a. Cumulative primary energy supply b. Cumulative energy savings c. Savings as a share of supply Live Wire 2014/28. “Tracking (exajoules) (exajoules) (percent) Progress Toward Providing Russia 598 Russia 37 Armenia 142 Sustainable Energy for All in Ukraine 140 Belarus 18 Azerbaijan 83 East Asia and the Pacific,” by Turkey 66 Kazakhstan 13 Albania 75 Kazakhstan 48 Azerbaijan 11 Kyrgyz Republic 71 Elisa Portale and Joeri de Wit. Uzbekistan 42 Bulgaria 7 Belarus 69 Belarus 26 Turkmenistan 5 Lithuania 43 Live Wire 2014/30. “Tracking Uzbekistan 4 Georgia 43 Bulgaria 18 Progress Toward Providing Turkmenistan 14 Lithuania 4 Bulgaria 40 Sustainable Energy for All Serbia 14 Armenia 4 Turkmenistan 35 Azerbaijan 13 Turkey 2 Kazakhstan 26 in Latin America and the Kyrgyz Republic 2 Moldova 26 Lithuania 9 Caribbean,” by Elisa Portale and Georgia 4 Georgia 2 Tajikistan 11 Joeri de Wit. Moldova 4 Albania 1 Uzbekistan 9 Kyrgyz Republic 3 Moldova 1 Russia 6 Armenia 3 Tajikistan 0 Turkey 4 Live Wire 2014/31. “Tracking Tajikistan 2 Montenegro 0 Ukraine -3 Progress Toward Providing Macedonia, FYR 2 Macedonia, FYR 0 Macedonia, FYR -14 Sustainable Energy for All in the Albania 2 Serbia -2 Serbia -16 Middle East and North Africa,” by Elisa Portale and Joeri de Wit. Source: World Bank 2014. Live Wire 2014/32. “Tracking Progress Toward Providing Sustainable Energy for All in South Asia,” by Elisa Portale and seen how renewables will evolve when the region again faces References growing energy demands. Joeri de Wit. SE4ALL (Sustainable Energy for All Initiative). 2012. In Support of the At 10.7 MJ/$2005 in 2010, ECA is the world’s most energy-inten- Objective to Achieve Universal Access to Modern Energy Services Live Wire 2014/33. “Tracking sive region and is heavily reliant on nonrenewable energy sources. by 2030. Technical Report of Task Force 1: New York. http://www. Progress Toward Providing However, the region’s reductions in energy intensity between 2000 sustainableenergyforall.org/about-us. Sustainable Energy for All in and 2010 were more rapid than in any other world region, a trend World Bank. 2014. Global Tracking Framework. Sustainable Energy for Sub-Saharan Africa,” by Elisa that may or may not continue toward 2030. All. Report 85415, Washington, DC. http://documents.worldbank. Portale and Joeri de Wit. Given the scale of the challenge inherent in meeting the three org/curated/en/2014/01/19164902/global-tracking-framework. SE4ALL goals, it is clear that a combination of bold policy measures coupled with a supportive regulatory and institutional environment is The peer reviewer for this note was Jasneet Singh, senior energy specialist in required to support the requisite ramping up of delivery capacity and the World Bank’s Energy and Extractives Global Practice. Preparation of this financial flows to the energy sector. note benefitted from comments by Morgan Bazilian, lead energy specialist in the World Bank’s Energy and Extractives Global Practice, and Vivien Foster, a manager in that practice.