WHAT WHAT DO DOYOU YOU WANT WANT TO BE? TO BE? YOUTH ASPIRATIONS IN TIME OF THE THEaspirations Youth in the COVID-19 CRISIS. time of the COVID-19 crisis. EVIDENCE FROM Evidence from threeTHREE SUB-SAHARAN COUNTRIES Sub-Saharan countries Valentina Costa, Ivette Contreras-Gonzalez, Valentina Costa, Ivette Contreras-Gonzalez and Amparo Palacios-Lopez Amparo Palacios-Lopez Valuable comments were received from Calogero (Gero) Carletto (Development Data Group, World Bank), Alemayehu Ambel (Development Data Group, World Bank), Kevin Robert McGee (Development Data Group, World Bank), and Alberto Zezza (Development Data Group, World Bank). Professional English editing was provided by Olutola Oni Jordan. The graphic design is by Maryam Gul, and the layout is by Pietro Bartoleschi. KEY FINDINGS • The data also shows high rates of young people aged 23-25 years who are neither • The data shows significant differences in studying nor working (NEETs). Specifically, education and career aspirations across Ethiopia reports the highest rate of NEETs Ethiopia, Nigeria and Malawi. A large share among youths aged 23-25 years (39%) of youth aged 23-25 years reported higher compared to their Malawian (21%) and educational aspirations than their current Nigerian (14%). academic achievements. For instance, about 40 percent of youth aged 23-25  years in • Lack of money is the most reported Malawi have not yet completed universal reason for unrealized aspirations, both primary schooling, but assuming no barriers in terms of educational level and professional exist, 70 percent of them would like to realization, and the youngest female youth complete either a university degree or post- (15-18 years old) are the most affected by graduate studies. this constraint. • The share of youth aged 23-25 years • There are significant gender differences currently working in their ideal job is in youth career aspirations. Female youth lower than 40 percent, specifically 39 more commonly report being interested in percent in Nigeria, 29 percent in Ethiopia and pursuing a career in nursing or teaching, 4 percent in Malawi. Across countries, having while male youth aspire to be engineers a high salary and doing an interesting job or soldiers. For instance, in Malawi, 28 are considered by youths to be the primary percent of young women aspire for a career characteristics of the ideal job. in nursing compared to 1 percent of their male peers, and 14 percent of young men in Nigeria desire to be an engineer versus 1 percent of their female peers. 1 1 INTRODUCTION have a positive impact on the target population than programs that do not (Macours and Vakis Understanding the aspirations and goals 2014). Also, programs do not always take of the youth is essential to developing into account that scarcity of resources often effective employment policies. Aspirations encompass much more than financial concerns can drive choices in education, employment, but could also reflect a lack of incentives, and job-seeking efforts; and they are shaped by motivation, or the necessary ambition an individual’s sense of agency, a fundamental required to putting those resources to good belief that one is responsible for their own and productive use (Macours and Vakis 2014). outcomes, and expectations about the labor market institutions (Appadurai 2004; Ray 2006; As the pandemic spread across the globe, it Sen 1985). Young people who have the ability became more apparent that young people and and the tools to set realistic life goals and their aspirations would be particularly affected reach them through their own effort, are more by the COVID-19 crisis in terms of employment, likely to live a more satisfactory life than those education, and training opportunities due ones without a clear pathway to achieving to a pandemic-specific combination of their aspirations (Lybbert and Wydick 2018; simultaneous labor market challenges. The Dalton, Ghosal, and Mani 2016; Bandura 1993). latest ILO global estimates confirm these fears: in 2020, youth were particularly hard hit by the Policies should be designed to allow crisis across all regions, countries, and income educational and professional aspirations groups. Globally, youth employment fell by of young people to align with pathways to 8.7 percent in 2020 compared with achieving them. If aspirations and life goals 3.7 percent for adults, and employment are not considered, policies aiming to match losses among young people mostly skills with labor market opportunities may translated into an increase in inactivity continue to fail young people between the ages and hopelessness for the future (ILO, 2021). 15 and 25, a group which accounts for roughly 20 percent of the population in sub-Saharan Recent surveys on youth or sub-populations Africa (African Union, 2019). Specifically, of youth have included questions to capture the World Bank estimates that by 2050, career aspirations and life goals in the half a billion people in sub-Saharan Africa time of the COVID-19 crisis. As part of the will be under the age of 25. This highlights COVID-19 high-frequency phone surveys the urgent need to create employment (HFPS) programme,1 the Living Standards opportunities for Africa’s youth, ones that Measurement Study (LSMS) team developed match their skills and aspirations with the the ‘Youth Aspirations and Employment demand in the job market (The World Bank, Module for High Frequency Phone Surveys 2021). For example, programs that provide (HFPS)’ to collect information about (i) information on how to enter the labor market education history, i.e., level of education plus a financial aid scheme are more likely to already achieved (in multi-topic household 1 Find out more about the LSMS-supported COVID-19 high-frequency phone surveys. 2 2 surveys, this information is partially captured 19 to 22 years old, and 20 percent are 23 to in the Education Module), (ii) work history, 25 years old. In Malawi and Ethiopia, the data i.e., age when respondent started working, were collected during May and June 2021, and previous work experience, sources of income, the age and sex distribution is similar to that (iii) future plans, i.e., intended activities after of Nigeria. completing education/training program, and (iv) career aspirations, i.e., desired work, role Incorporating the Youth Aspirations and models, social norms, migration interest. 2 Employment Module for High Frequency The module was implemented in one round Phone Surveys (HFPS) into multi- in Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria between April topic household surveys has several and June 2021 for households that participated advantages. First, it allows us to capture in previous HFPS rounds and have at least and compare information on youth not in one young member (15-25 years old). Thus, employment, education, or training (NEET) the households included in the HFPS are with those currently engaged in work activities, sub-samples of LSMS households interviewed school, or training. Thereby contributing in the most recent face-to-face interviews, in to the measurement of the Sustainable the respective countries. Development Goal (SDG) 8.6. (‘By 2030, substantially reduce the proportion of youth The data collected is nationally not in employment, education, or training representative and age distribution (NEET)’). Secondly, information on aspirations is similar across countries. A uniform can be disaggregated by current activity or methodology was adopted in sampling, occupational status and personal and/or weighting, and implementing the survey household characteristics, allowing for a across the countries, to make cross-country skills match and inter-generational analysis, comparison feasible. In Nigeria, the data were 3 amongst others. Future implementations of collected in April 2021. Fifty-two percent of the this work may include the administration of sample are male, while 48 percent are female. the module in several HFPS rounds to measure Forty-four percent of the respondents are the variation of aspirations during different between 15 to 18 years old, 36 percent are phases of the COVID-19 crisis. 2 The questionnaire was drafted based on recent household surveys: the ILO SWTS questionnaire (2009), Module 2; the World Bank Young Basotho’s Aspirations and Challenges Survey (2019); and Young Lives, round 4, Ethiopia (2013-2014). The questionnaire is a living document and the piloted version is available at the LSMS-ISA website. 3 The sample of youth respondents was randomly selected among the household members that fulfill the age criterion and includes 841 youth in Nigeria, 910 youth in Malawi and 881 youth in Ethiopia. 3 3 YOUTH ACTIVITY HISTORY increases. Ethiopia reports the highest rate of NEETs among youths aged 23-25 years This section describes the key findings regarding (39%) compared to their Malawian (21%) and the main current activity of youth aged 15-25 Nigerian peers (14%). years, as well as the youth activity history that have contributed to their level of education, More than one third of the female youth in school attendance, the reasons that could have Ethiopia were neither studying nor working prevented youth from attending the current (NEETs) as the time of the survey. The share school year, their career plans after completing of NEETs is higher amongst female than male the current education/training programs. youth in all countries (19% vs. 7% in Nigeria, 20% vs. 10% in Malawi and 35% vs. 3% in As of April-June 2021, more than half Ethiopia). This trend is also presented when of the youth were attending school or disaggregating by age cohort. training programs, around 30 percent were working and about 20 percent were neither A high rate of school attendance amongst studying nor working (NEETs) across the the youngest youth seems to be a predictor three countries. As illustrated in Figure 1, of a high employment rate in the older age the share of young people currently studying groups at the country level. For instance, is higher amongst males and the younger Malawi reports the highest rate of youth age cohort, across the three countries. This aged 15-18 years currently attending school share decreases with age as the share of or training programs (84% vs. 71% in Nigeria youth engaged in work activities or NEETs and 70% in Ethiopia) and the highest rate of Figure 1. MAIN CURRENT ACTIVITY, % BY AGE AND SEX 54 50 49 56 44 63 22 Sex 31 31 38 27 41 35 7 19 10 20 3 Male Female Male Female Male Female 11 14 41 30 42 49 Age Group 71 70 47 84 68 45 56 36 29 17 9 24 39 12 13 14 22 21 22 7 6 15-18 19-22 23-25 15-18 19-22 23-25 15-18 19-22 23-25 Nigeria Malawi Ethiopia Attending school/training Working Not attending school/training neither working Sampling weights used. T-tests of equality of means were conducted across men and women within each country. Any difference highlighted in the text is statistically significant. Source: Own calculations based on HFPS surveys. 4 youth, aged 23-25 years, currently working of Ethiopia, engagement in work activities is (68% vs. 56% in Nigeria and 47% in Ethiopia). reported by male youth as the main reason for not attending school in 2020/2021, and Looking deeper at the reasons that could this share is three times higher than for female have prevented youth from attending the youth (30% vs. 11% respectively), but this current school year 2020/2021, Figure  2 gender difference is not statistically significant. shows that the main barrier is lack of money across countries. Disaggregating For Ethiopian youth aged 15-18 years, the by gender and age cohorts shows that lack of perseverance, motivation, and pregnancies and domestic obligations are self-confidence (25 percent) is the main the second most common reasons for not reason for not attending school during the attending school amongst female youth 2020/2021 school year. A replication of this in Malawi and Ethiopia (31% and 25%, module in future rounds may help identify respectively), especially amongst Ethiopian whether the current COVID-19 crisis is affecting youth aged 15-18 years (23%). In Nigeria, a the academic motivation of youths. Lack of significant share of both male and female motivation was reported as a main reason by youth is awaiting admission, and this is highest 10 percent of Malawian youth. Figure 2 reports among the youngest youth (36%). In the case the findings in detail. Figure 2. REASONS FOR NOT ATTENDING SCHOOL IN 2020/2021 SCHOOL YEAR, % BY AGE AND SEX 21 27 59 52 47 67 30 11 0 11 1 1 0 1 8 14 15 14 Sex 0 3 25 21 21 00 17 9 0 0 12 0 0 11 5 13 17 18 8 24 21 8 Male Female Male Female Male Female 22 27 24 36 59 60 57 52 10 Age Group 1 2 0 67 23 20 19 1 4 9 13 36 1 4 0 0 6 1 9 10 4 9 1 1 8 6 9 2 0 1 7 16 25 6 8 27 7 0 1 13 11 1 6 25 1 9 16 10 14 16 23 26 5 14 15-18 19-22 23-25 15-18 19-22 23-25 15-18 19-22 23-25 Nigeria Malawi Ethiopia Lack of money Working Domestic obligation Pregnancy Awaiting admission Lack of motivation Other Sampling weights used. T-tests of equality of means were conducted across men and women within each country. Any difference highlighted in the text is statistically significant. Source: Own calculations based on HFPS surveys. 5 5 The main source of money for the youth 50 percent of female youth versus 33 percent is a regular job in Nigeria, and family or of male youth in Nigeria, while gender parents in Malawi and Ethiopia. However, differences in family economic support are the main source of income changes according not statistically significant in Malawi. Moreover, to the age of the respondents. youths aged 23-25 years rely more on their partners’ support than the younger youth Figure 3 shows that family is the main source aged 19-22 especially in Ethiopia (26% vs. 13%). of income for young people aged 15-18 years who tend to still be in school and living with Looking at the career plans of the youth their parents (58%in Nigeria, 67% in Malawi, aged 15-18 years currently attending and 80% in Ethiopia). Conversely, income from school, more than half of them would like a regular job is the largest source of income to continue studying after completing for the oldest youth aged 23-25 years, as they their current education/training programs, complete their education, leave their parents’ specifically 76 percent in Nigeria and house, and start working (62% in Nigeria, 63% 68 percent in Malawi (see Figure 4). Breaking in Malawi, and 47% in Ethiopia). down the employment plans of youths willing to work shows that 19 percent of Malawian Female youth, more than their male peers, youth aged 15-18, are more likely to desire rely on the economic support of their family working as employees, compared to 6 percent of origin in Nigeria and Malawi. Specifically, of their Nigerian peers. Figure 3. TOP 3 SOURCES OF MONEY, % BY AGE AND SEX 35 35 33 23 57 49 Sex 53 50 51 65 33 44 0 10 6 1 9 24 9 6 5 1 2 1 Male Female Male Female Male Female 15 Age Group 33 26 29 56 62 53 63 47 67 58 80 56 25 31 22 36 19 3 5 12 26 1 8 11 12 3 4 7 7 4 0 13 4 2 2 15-18 19-22 23-25 15-18 19-22 23-25 15-18 19-22 23-25 Nigeria Malawi Ethiopia My regular job My parents and/or family My partner Other Sampling weights used. T-tests of equality of means were conducted across men and women within each country. Any difference highlighted in the text is statistically significant. Source: Own calculations based on HFPS surveys. 6 6 Ethiopia presents a completely different The opposite is true for youths that plan to scenario. Only 30 percent of the youth start working immediately after completing 15-18 years attending school would like the current program, either as employees or to continue studying after completing business owners. When combining these two their current education/training program. categories, the share is lower amongst youth As illustrated in Figure  4, 58 percent of aged 15-18 years and it increases among youth youth aged 15-18 years currently attending aged 19-22 years (11% vs. 40% in Nigeria, 25% school plan to start working immediately vs. 38% in Malawi, and 58% vs. 84% in Ethiopia; after completing their education/training see Figure 4). programs, either by opening a new business (9%) or working as employees (49%). The share Female youth in Nigeria currently attending of young people willing to start a business is school are less likely to continue on to higher in rural areas (20%) than in urban areas further education (55%) when compared (6 percent), while youth living in urban areas to their male peers (70%), and more willing are more attracted to the idea of becoming to start working as employees (20% vs. 10%). employees (57% vs. 49% in rural areas). We found similar results in Ethiopia, where the share of female youth willing to start working Career plans change with age across as employee immediately after completing countries. The share of youth aged their current studies is higher than among 15-18 years willing to keep studying after male youth (58% vs. 46%). Conversely, in completing their current education/training Malawi, more female youth would like to keep program is higher than among youth aged studying compared to their male peers (66% vs. 19-22 years (76% vs. 44% in Nigeria, 68% vs. 59% respectively), but these gender differences 50% in Malawi, and 30% vs. 7% in Ethiopia). are not statistically significant. Figure 4. PLANS AFTER COMPLETING CURRENT EDUCATION/TRAINING PROGRAMME, % BY AGE AND SEX 20 23 55 59 66 70 46 58 Sex 20 23 10 7 2 22 20 0 9 11 17 8 3 7 5 3 7 7 10 1 8 4 Male Female Male Female Male Female 7 17 Age Group 30 42 30 44 50 76 68 54 59 19 52 49 29 53 6 5 21 19 30 4 0 0 9 3 9 2 12 1 15 13 2 3 6 3 4 9 5 0 0 10 8 0 20 15-18 19-22 23-25 15-18 19-22 23-25 15-18 19-22 23-25 Nigeria Malawi Ethiopia Immediately go for further education/training Work as an employee Start a business Do not know Other Sampling weights used. T-tests of equality of means were conducted across men and women within each country. Any difference highlighted in the text is statistically significant. Source: Own calculations based on HFPS surveys. 7 7 YOUTH ASPIRATIONS university degree or post-graduate studies, IN EDUCATION compared to 70 and 59 percent, respectively, of youth in Malawi and Ethiopia (see Figure 5). The HFPS data shows differences on academic achievements and educational We further observe that youth aspirations aspirations across the three countries. in education adjust with age, and usually Nigeria reports the highest educational the oldest youths lower their educational attainment among the youth. Forty percent expectations. For instance, in Malawi, of youth aged 23-25 years in Malawi and 17 percent of the youth aged 15-18 years Ethiopia have not yet completed universal would like to stop their studies at the primary education, while 51 percent of their secondary education or vocational training, Nigerian peers have attained the secondary while this share increases to 28 percent for the school qualification as the highest degree. cohort of 23-25 years old. We observe similar However, the actual level of education attained results for Ethiopia, where the share of youth does not appear to match the expectations willing to reach the primary education goes of the youth. Assuming no barriers exist, from 7 percent for youth aged 15-18 years to 85 percent of Nigerian youth aged 23-25 years 17 percent for youth aged 23-25 years (see reported their desire to complete either a Figure 5). Figure 5. LEVEL OF EDUCATION THAT YOUTH WOULD LIKE TO COMPLETE, % BY AGE AND SEX 0 0 8 2 0 1 7 1 1 11 7 12 23 0 1 16 15 22 53 57 43 Sex 67 67 49 35 22 29 19 3 7 9 0 7 0 1 2 Male Female Male Female Male Female 0 0 10 2 1 1 0 9 0 3 1 5 2 3 7 6 1 10 14 0 17 Age Group 24 25 21 14 1 48 22 59 54 45 52 77 59 59 41 27 27 37 25 27 18 4 6 6 5 0 11 1 11 1 2 1 2 15-18 19-22 23-25 15-18 19-22 23-25 15-18 19-22 23-25 Nigeria Malawi Ethiopia Primary/Elementary education Vocational education Secondary education University Post-graduate studies Other Sampling weights used. T-tests of equality of means were conducted across men and women within each country. Any difference highlighted in the text is statistically significant. Source: Own calculations based on HFPS surveys. 8 8 Eighty-five percent of youth in Malawi and Seventy-six percent of female youth also report Nigeria and 51 percent in Ethiopia, report the lack of money as the main barrier, and lack of money as the major constraint for 17 percent report domestic obligations and youth to achieving their ideal educational pregnancies as the second most common level. As illustrated in Figure 6, when we barriers. In Malawi, lack of motivation is the disaggregate by gender, 93 percent of male second major barrier after lack of money, youth in Nigeria report lack of money as the especially amongst male youth (16%) and age primary barrier to reaching their desired cohorts 15-18 years (14%) and 19-22 (16%) (see education level. Figures 6, 7). Figure 6. MAIN BARRIERS FOR YOUTH TO ACHIEVING IDEAL EDUCATIONAL LEVEL, BY SEX (% OF YOUTH RESPONDENTS 15-25 YEARS OLD) 8 26 17 Female 6 51 76 85 11 2 2 11 2 11 41 11 13 14 51 2 85 Male 1 93 4 3 49 2 4 9 16 20 Nigeria Malawi Ethiopia Lack of money Working Domestic obligation Pregnancy Lack of motivation No difficulty Multi-choice question. Totals may exceed 100 percent. Sampling weights used. T-tests of equality of means were conducted across men and women within each country. Any difference highlighted in the text is statistically significant. Source: Own calculations based on HFPS surveys. Figure 7. MAIN BARRIERS FOR YOUTH TO ACHIEVING IDEAL EDUCATIONAL LEVEL, % BY AGE 83 82 44 2 0 10 6 0 16 15-18 2 6 3 1 14 9 5 0 59 85 89 57 Age Group 3 3 19 7 4 17 19-22 3 8 8 3 16 2 4 0 44 88 84 56 7 0 18 11 1 30 23-25 4 16 10 2 7 5 5 0 22 Nigeria Malawi Ethiopia Lack of money Working Domestic obligation Pregnancy Lack of motivation No difficulty Multi-choice question. Totals may exceed 100 percent. Sampling weights used. Source: Own calculations based on HFPS surveys. 9 9 Almost half of youth in Ethiopia report that technical skills, are mostly reported in urban they have not faced any barriers to realizing as opposed to rural areas (6 percent vs. their educational goals or that they have 1 percent respectively). Similar results are already reached their ideal educational found in Nigeria and Ethiopia. Breaking level. The share decreases to 22 percent down career expectations by gender shows amongst youth aged 23-25 years, but this significant differences across countries. is still an exceptional percentage, especially when we compare to a similar group in Nigeria Career aspirations by gender are (5%) and Malawi (0%) (see Figure 7). However, significantly different in the three this finding can be correlated with the lower countries. As illustrated in Figure 8, educational aspirations reported by Ethiopian aspirations towards becoming a nurse youth aged 23-25 years. practitioner or a teacher are mainly reported by female youth. In Malawi, YOUTH ASPIRATIONS 28 percent of young women aspire to IN LABOR be a nurse practitioner versus 1 percent of their male counterparts. Conversely, Youth career aspirations and goals are aspirations towards becoming an consistent across countries in both urban engineer or a soldier are mainly reported and rural settings, with some exceptions. by male youth. For example, in Nigeria, In the case of Malawi, aspirations towards 14 percent of young men desire to be a career in education are reported more by an engineer versus 1 percent of female youth living in rural areas compared to urban counterparts. Gender differences in aspiring of areas (12% vs. 5% respectively). Conversely, being nurse for female youth and engineer for career aspirations for jobs in engineering, male youth are statistically significant across which require higher levels of education and all countries. Figure 8. IDEAL JOB, BY SEX (% OF YOUTH RESPONDENTS 15-25 YEARS OLD) Nigeria Male 29 21 6 5 0 14 16 7 2 Female 28 24 9 0 11 1 18 6 4 Malawi Male 42 8 8 12 1 4 15 5 5 Female 29 6 12 1 28 1 16 4 3 Ethiopia Male 42 15 303 1 24 5 7 Female 22 28 9 0 5 2 15 10 9 Other Trader/businessman/woman Teacher/lecturer Soldier Nurse Engineer Doctor Civil servants Accountant Sampling weights used. T-tests of equality of means were conducted across men and women within each country. Any difference highlighted in the text is statistically significant. Source: Own calculations based on HFPS surveys. 10 10 When accounting for gender differences in particularly high in the 23-25-year age group the career aspirations of youth, we observe in both countries. On the other hand, about a consistent pattern across the three half the youth in Ethiopia rate how interesting countries that may depend on the exposure the job is as the number one characteristic to traditional gender roles, patriarchal the ideal job should have, especially among values, and cultural expectations. Cultural the lower and middle brackets, 15-18 beliefs about gender roles can be a constraint and 19-22 years. With the third bracket, on the career aspirations of female youth 23-25 years, earning a lot of money is the who tend to seek jobs in fields like nursing or main consideration, according to 45 percent teaching, which tend to pay less than higher of youth in that group. paid jobs in traditionally male-dominated professions, like electricians, engineering, etc. To sum up, earning a high salary and how interesting the job is are the main Looking at the ideal job characteristics, factors that the ideal job should have, young Nigerians and Malawians aspire to and the former becomes more important work in high paying jobs. Figure 9 shows with age. Other job characteristics such as that, on average, almost 60 percent of youth family-friendly environment, or skills matching in Nigeria and about 50 percent in Malawi are only reported by less than 20 percent of say earning a lot of money is the main factor the youth groups presented on Figure 9. in assessing career satisfaction for both The data does not show any consistent and female and male youth. This percentage is significant gender differences across countries. Figure 9. MOST IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTICS THAT “DREAM” JOB SHOULD HAVE, % BY AGE AND SEX 58 59 57 51 51 46 41 39 35 36 31 Sex 29 26 22 18 21 18 14 15 14 12 15 14 17 9 8 8 5 4 2 Male Female Male Female Male Female 62 60 63 59 55 56 49 49 Age Group 42 45 33 37 36 34 28 28 28 27 30 33 20 23 18 14 11 17 13 15 17 17 15 16 14 13 13 13 8 8 4 6 3 4 7 4 8 15-18 19-22 23-25 15-18 19-22 23-25 15-18 19-22 23-25 Nigeria Malawi Ethiopia Interesting job to do Job that people regard highly/status of the job Earn a lot of money Job that uses skills and abilities Job that is family-friendly Totals may exceed 100percent due to multi-choice questions. Sampling weights used. T-tests of equality of means were conducted across men and women within each country. Any difference highlighted in the text is statistically significant. Source: Own calculations based on HFPS surveys. 11 11 Across countries, the aspiration of working amongst the youngest youths (56%) and less in in the field of interest is the main factor the oldest age group (40%). Findings in all the that influences youth to imagine their ideal three countries are in line with the increase of job (59% in Nigeria, 52% in Malawi, and 38% importance that the 23-25-year youths give to in Ethiopia). When analyzing the potential earning a lot of money, as showed in Figure 9. factors and circumstances that shape youth career aspirations, Figure 10 shows that in The data shows that family and friends Nigeria, the importance of working in the field also play a crucial role in influencing youth of interest increases with age, from 56 percent career goals and preferences, especially in for youth aged 15-18 years to 64 percent for Malawi. Almost 43 percent of Malawian youth youth aged 19-22 years, and in Ethiopia, from believe that their expectations about the ideal 37 percent to 46 percent, before dropping job are influenced by their social networks. for youth aged 23-25 years in both countries. Specifically, family and friends are reported This reduction is due to high pay and benefits as the most influential factors in shaping the taking over as the main factor in shaping career career aspirations of half of the oldest youth aspirations for youth in the 23-25-year age aged 19-22 years (see Figure 10). Regarding bracket in Ethiopia (29%) and in Nigeria (27%). gender, there are no significant differences In Malawi, working in the field of interest is a across the countries. factor that shapes career aspiration mainly Figure 10. MAIN FACTORS INFLUENCED YOUTH TO IMAGINE THEIR “DREAM” JOB, % BY AGE Nigeria Malawi Ethiopia 23 37 24 Family and friends around me 28 49 17 23 46 21 18 27 22 It is a highly respected profession 11 19 15 18 21 12 My high interest in this field/expected 56 56 37 enjoyment of the job 64 52 46 53 40 28 The high suitability of my skills 10 5 3 for this job 11 14 6 24 11 5 The high pay or good benefits that 21 10 12 come with this job 14 13 13 27 13 29 1 5 1 There are lots of jobs in this area 4 3 3 11 2 4 15-18 19-22 23-25 Multi-choice question. Totals may exceed 100 percent. Sampling weights used. Source: Own calculations based on HFPS surveys. 12 12 Looking at the oldest cohort of youth for youth failures in career aspirations. As aged 23-25 years who are currently illustrated in Figures 11 and 12, 66 percent of working, only 39 percent in Nigeria, youth aged 23-25 years in Malawi report lack 29 percent in Ethiopia and 4 percent in of money as the primary reason for aspiration Malawi report doing their dream job. failures. Similar results are found in Nigeria and However, Nigerian and Ethiopian youth aged Ethiopia, but the gender differences are not 23-25 years have high expectations that they statistically significant in both countries. will have their dream job someday. Almost 90 percent in Nigeria and 77 percent in We observe further that the lack of connections Ethiopia report that their dream jobs are or acquaintances is the second most reported likely and very likely achievable. Conversely, constraint to the aspirations of male youths Malawian youth seem to be more hopeless – (27%) and people aged 23‑25 years (22%) in only half of them believe they will succeed in Nigeria, while domestic obligations are the achieving their desired profession, especially second most reported barrier for people among the youth aged 23-25 years. aged 23-25 years in Ethiopia (12%), especially amongst female youth (19%), and more than Understanding the gap between aspirational in the other countries (7% in Nigeria and 1% goals and successful outcomes will be aided in Malawi). Ethiopia also shows the highest by a look at the barriers/obstacles faced rate of youth aged 23-25 years reporting any by youth. Across all three countries, the lack difficulty in realizing their ideal job (38% vs. of money is reported as the primary reason 7% in Nigeria and 5% in Malawi). Figure 11. MAIN CONSTRAINTS FOR YOUTH TO REALIZING THEIR “DREAM” JOB, BY SEX (% OF YOUTH RESPONDENTS 15-25 YEARS OLD WHO ARE NOT CURRENTLY DOING THEIR “DREAM” JOB) 10 15 2 Female 5 47 8 7 1 2 69 75 45 8 10 8 15 2 19 5 11 54 4 13 Male 67 3 53 12 65 3 1 27 6 3 5 5 3 Nigeria Malawi Ethiopia Lack of money Domestic obligation Lack of connections or acquaintances No difficulty  Lack of capital to start a business Lack of adeguate skills and education Multi-choice question. Totals may exceed 100 percent. Sampling weights used. T-tests of equality of means were conducted across men and women within each country. Any difference highlighted in the text is statistically significant. Source: Own calculations based on HFPS surveys. 13 13 Figure 12. MAIN CONSTRAINTS FOR YOUTH TO REALIZING THEIR “DREAM” JOB, BY AGE (% OF YOUTH RESPONDENTS 15-25 YEARS OLD WHO ARE NOT CURRENTLY DOING THEIR “DREAM” JOB) 71 74 47 4 1 8 17 2 0 15-18 12 7 56 5 1 5 16 10 10 66 67 51 Age Group 3 1 14 28 3 5 19-22 10 2 49 8 4 3 10 13 7 61 66 56 9 0 12 22 0 2 23-25 7 4 38 8 10 15 11 9 6 Nigeria Malawi Ethiopia Lack of money Domestic obligation Lack of connections or acquaintances No difficulty  Lack of capital to start a business Lack of adeguate skills and education Multi-choice question. Totals may exceed 100 percent. Sampling weights used. Source: Own calculations based on HFPS surveys. In conclusion, measuring youth aspirations data at the individual level in a multi-topic helps shed light on the possible employment household survey, we will be able to identify outcomes that can be observed in adulthood different characteristics of the youth and their and play a role in breaking poverty circles, families, that will help to understand how which is highly relevant for public policy. aspirations shape the youth future. An area Improved data collection supports the targeted for possible further research may explore design of policies to answer specific questions, how aspirations change with respect to age, such as, what is the right age to intervene – if shocks, and coping mechanisms. 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