www.ifc.org/thoughtleadership NOTE 95 • DEC 2020 How the Tourism Sector in Emerging Markets is Recovering from COVID-19 By Nisachol Mekharat and Nouhoum Traore Tourism is an important sector that accounts for 10 percent of global gross domestic product and one in every 10 jobs. As a result of COVID-19-related travel restrictions, the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has estimated that international tourist arrivals in 2020 will drop between 58 and 78 percent, which puts 100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk. The effects of COVID-19 are felt throughout the extensive tourism value chain, including airlines, hotels, restaurants, tour operators, food suppliers, farmers, retailers, and a wide range of other small and medium enterprises. Although all tourist destinations strongly feel the impact from the pandemic-related crisis, not all have the same vulnerabilities or capacity to recover. This note explores the factors in specific tourism destinations that contribute to pandemic-related vulnerability, as well as the factors that support the resilience of the tourism sector. Examining all these factors together provides a snapshot of the countries as well as the subsectors that are most likely to recover first, as well as those that will require greater support to weather and recover from the crisis. No measures Quarantine from high-risk regions Total border closure No data Screening Ban on high-risk regions FIGURE 1 International Travel Controls During the COVID-19 Pandemic as of May 1, 2020 Source: Hale, Thomas, Noam Angrist, Emily Cameron-Blake, Laura Hallas, Beatriz Kira, Saptarshi Majumdar, Anna Petherick, Toby Phillips, Helen Tatlow, Samuel Webster. 2020. Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. About the Authors Nisachol Mekhara, Results Measurement Specialist, and Nouhoum Traore, Economist, both at Sector Economics and Development Impact – Corporate Results, Economics and Private Sector Development, IFC. Their emails are nmekhara@ifc.org and ntraore3@ifc.org respectively. 1 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. 15 Sept. 11th Global econ. crisis month 6: month 10: first month of growth first month of growth 10 SARS (intermittent) month 5: first month of growth 5 +4 +4 +2 (% change) 0 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 -5 SARS -10 Sept. 11th attacks -10.9 Global econ. crisis -12 -15 FIGURE 2 The Impact of Three Crises on World Tourism Arrivals Source: UNWTO (United Nations World Tourism Organization). 2020. “International tourist arrivals, 2000–2019 and scenarios for 2020 (% change),” Impact Assessment of the COVID-19 Outbreak on International Tourism; Executive Summary. https://www.unwto.org/impact-assessment-of-the-covid-19- outbreak-on-international-tourism Note: Month 0 for the Sept 11th crisis=Sept. 2001; for SARS pandemic=March 2003; and for the Global Economic Crisis=Jan 2009. Of all the crisis, global arrivals returned to growth the fastest after SARS (5 months). World travel came to a standstill in April 2020 as COVID-19 and Jordan—are among the most affected by the decline in reached almost every country and governments started to activity and the ensuing multiplier effects. In the short term, restrict movement in order to curb infections. By May 1, 2020, these impacts include job losses and a reduction or total all countries except Iran and United Kingdom (UK) imposed elimination of income due to the inability of tourism operations some pandemic-related travel restrictions, with most closing to sustain themselves and support their workers. For those their borders completely.1 Economically, travel and tourism countries where official safety nets are limited or inexistent, the became the sector most affected by the pandemic. impact will be acute and could be unmitigated. The tourism sector has experienced and recovered from A study on the role of tourism in the economy of the island demand-driven crises in the past such as the September 11th of Bali in Indonesia illustrates the multiplier effect, which is terrorist attack (2001), the SARS pandemic (2003), and the how many times money spent by a tourist circulates through West African Ebola outbreak (2014–2016). The sector has also a country’s economy. This study noted that every Indonesian endured demand and supply crises such as the Asian Economic rupiah 1 trillion (~ $68 million) of tourists’ expenditures in Crisis (1997–1998) and the Global Economic Crisis (2008). Bali creates 27,750 job opportunities in tourism, and 67,566 jobs in the island’s economy as a whole.3 The World Travel and However, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Tourism Council (WTTC) has projected that global travel and tourism sector is of a different order of magnitude. The tourism job losses in 2020 will be between 98 million (upside), economic contraction has been and will continue to be more 121 million (baseline), and 198 million (downside). With regard profound than any recession since World War II. Furthermore, to GDP, the losses have been estimated at between $2.7 billion the tourism crises since 2000 were somewhat contained, (upside), $3.4 billion (baseline), and $5.5 billion (downside).4 regionally, whereas COVID-19 has simultaneously affected the entire world. The impact of COVID-19 will also be amplified by a country’s dependency on international (as opposed to domestic) tourism. Vulnerability to the COVID-19 Pandemic When factoring in indicators such as tourism as a share of total exports, the list of the most vulnerable economies includes most Dependency on international tourism small islands such as those in the Caribbean and the Maldives. The first factor of vulnerability is the importance of tourism Globally, international travel relies heavily on departures for the local economy. As can be expected, the countries that from China, including Hong Kong SAR, China, followed are most dependent on tourism will be most severely impacted by Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom. as lower demand has spillover effects across their economies. Destinations that rely on tourists from these countries will be Countries in which tourism contributes the largest share affected by the speed at which these source nations recover, as directly to GDP2—Croatia, Fiji, Panama, Jamaica, Mauritius, well as the changes in their customers’ behavior. 2 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. Macao SAR, China 48% Macao SAR, China 90% Fiji 13% Saint Lucia 89% Jordan 12% Bahamas 86% Spain 12% Maldives 84% Croatia 11% Grenada 84% Atingua & Montenegro 10% Barbuda 83% Mauritius 10% Aruba 80% St. Vincent Panama 9% & Gren. 76% Jamaica 9% St. Maarten 75% Mexico 9% Anguilla 71% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% FIGURE 3A Tourism (Direct) as a Share of GDP (%) FIGURE 3B Tourism as a Share of Total Exports (%) Source: UNWTO (United Nations World Tourism Organization). https://www.unwto.org/unwto-tourism-dashboard For example, Chinese tourists are now more likely to travel Infrastructure within China, or in the region, which could contribute Local Transport: Inadequate domestic transportation to increased arrivals in Asian destinations, but fewer in infrastructure will be an impediment to the recovery of Europe and the United States. The recovery of tourism in the local tourism. While air travel is a prime health risk, private Caribbean islands, which are heavily dependent on tourists vehicles can allow for effective social distancing. However, from North America, will depend on the pace at which countries that have poor quality, congested, or otherwise the situation normalizes in the United States and Canada. unsafe roads will miss opportunities when demand reorients However, while domestic tourism can help kick-start the to domestic or regional destinations that are accessible recovery, it cannot fill the gap left by international travelers. by car. Thus, investments now in quality road transport infrastructure will contribute to the sustainability of tourism Location and access destinations in the long run. Location, and the quality of local infrastructure, are essential Healthcare Infrastructure: In some destination countries, the factors considered by tourists when they select a destination. high number of COVID-19 infections is severely straining Some location-related constraints such as difficulty of access and transportation costs have a negative impact on demand. The the national healthcare system, and that plus a dramatic destination selection process during and after the COVID-19 death toll could adversely affect travelers’ perceptions and pandemic will be affected by variables such as access by air and preferences for years to come. Low-income and International air travel safety. Not only will tourists be unable to reach island Development Association (IDA) countries could face a lasting destinations until air travel bans have been lifted, fares could be decline in international arrivals if travelers lack confidence in prohibitively expensive until airline operations return to pre- local healthcare. Although countries such as the United States COVID-19 levels, which may take several years. The long-term and those in Europe have quality healthcare, tourists could be strategic and commercial decisions of major airlines are beyond discouraged not only by their fear of infection, but also by the the control of local authorities and actors in the tourism sector. high cost and challenges in accessing treatment. Conversely, However, once the pandemic is over, governments must decide in middle-income countries with good quality healthcare that whether to support their local airlines to ensure that these is easy to access and reasonably priced, tourist numbers could survive in the competitive air travel sector. rise during the first phase of recovery. In addition, without a vaccine or proven treatment, tourists IT Infrastructure: A reliable digital network and digital will be wary of extended air travel that requires points of close facilities will increase travelers’ confidence in a destination, contact in airports and on planes. Post-COVID-19, remote if only by enabling them to request immediate assistance, if and exotic destinations that were once attractive because of needed. Travelers also need to be able to access high-quality their seclusion will suffer due to lack of access. In the short-to- digital information that is relevant, easy to understand, medium term, tourists are more likely to travel domestically unambiguous, and accurate. In addition, digital platforms or, at most, intra-regionally, rather than travel between and information technology can be leveraged to facilitate the continents, as they did before the pandemic. immigration process and minimize touch points in order to 3 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. achieve near-contactless arrivals and departures at airports, Resilience to the COVID-19 Pandemic ports, and borders, as well as in accommodation. Ability to create domestic/regional demand for tourism Government’s management of COVID-19 cases Each tourist destination has a different capacity to cope with Even without knowing how the COVID-19 pandemic will the crisis. The data show that the number of tourist arrivals in turn out, public sentiments have already formed about which Hong Kong SAR, China, after dropping to 10 million in 2003 countries are doing better than others. Destinations exposed due to the SARS outbreak, came back and even jumped to 14 to prior health crises such as China, the Republic of Korea, million in 2004. A similar pattern was apparent in Thailand Hong Kong SAR, China, and Taiwan, China had infectious after SARS, where the number of tourist arrivals surpassed the disease control protocols in place and were able to quickly pre-crisis level in 2004. Conversely, it took six years for the implement effective measures to control COVID-19 infections Bahamas to regain the number of tourist arrivals it had enjoyed and limit loss of life. Governments’ performance in managing prior to the 2009 Global Economic Crisis, and in Sierra Leone, the crisis will have a long-lasting impact on tourists’ perceptions five years after the 2014 Ebola outbreak, the number of tourist of a destination. In the medium-to-long term, to restore the arrivals still had not returned to the 2013 level of 81,000. confidence of tourists who are concerned about their safety, An essential factor accounting for the speed of tourism governments must actively manage their country’s image and industry recovery seems to be the ability of the country to deploy effective marketing strategies that inform potential capture domestic and regional demand. Thailand’s tourism tourists about the industry’s recovery and the systems in place, industry has shown resilience after past crises due to its in order to mitigate everyone’s risks. large domestic clientele (with almost nine million departures Gambia was a case in point during the Ebola outbreak. Despite recorded in 2017), and a location that attracts tourists from having no reported cases, tourism receipts in Gambia fell by China, Korea, and Japan. Thus, geographical connectedness more than half for the 2014/2015 season due to the negative impacts regional demand and can play an important role image international tourists formed about the West African in the recovery of the tourism sector. Destinations such as region. Given the high number of COVID-19 cases in some Hong Kong SAR, China and Singapore are well-connected Latin American countries, it is likely that the whole region will to other countries in Asia, many of which are middle-income face more difficulty in restoring tourists’ confidence than will be countries with a robust appetite for travel. As a result of its the case with countries in East and Southeast Asia. connectedness, tourism in Hong Kong SAR, China rebounded 20 20 Hong Kong SAR, China Thailand 18 17 17 18 16 16 15 16 14.5 14.6 14 13.8 14 14 Arrival (in Millions) Arrival (in Millions) 11.7 11.6 12 11 12 10.9 10 10.1 10.1 9.6 10 9 9 10 8.7 8 SARS Health Crisis 7.8 SARS Health Crisis 8 7 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 160% 90 Bahamas Sierra Leone 81 140% 80 World 120% 70 % of pre-crisis arrivals Arrival (in Thousands) 60 60 55 57 100% 52 51 50 44 80% 39 2009 Global Financial Crisis 40 60% 30 24 40% 20 Ebola Crisis (-70%) 20% 10 0% 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 FIGURE 4 Recoveries Following SARS, Ebola, and the Global Financial Crisis Source: Authors own graphs using 2020 United Nations World Tourism Organization statistics. https://www.unwto.org/unwto-tourism-dashboard 4 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. almost immediately after the SARS outbreak. In contrast, This includes the services of an associated private hospital the Bahamas’ high dependence on U.S. tourists explains its that is providing COVID-19 tests, consultation, and slow recovery from the 2009 financial crisis. For the countries healthcare. A large international hotel chain is considering affected by Ebola in 2013 (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone), offering COVID-19 health insurance if reservations are where most tourists are international travelers, the total made directly with the hotel, rather than through a booking number of arrivals still had not recovered by 2018. website. Smaller independent hotel operators may not be able to offer such services because they have already lost a great Private sector capacities: Strength of hotel operators deal of money, and lack the funds to cover restarting costs, and the supply chain including hygiene-related improvements and staff training. The experience and level of leverage that private hotel This might lead to a shift in the market, whereby independent operators and developers can offer will play an important role hotels engage with global operators either through a franchise in tourism destinations’ recovery. Small, medium-sized, and or the chain’s management, so that they benefit from the large tourism operators all face the same challenges, and it is marketing ability of a well-known brand. generally forecast that full tourism sector recovery will take at When the health crisis is finally under control, supply chain least a few years after the April 2020 COVID-19 shutdown. resilience will be one of the key factors for speedy recovery Resilience will be severely tested over this period and, for of the tourism sector. The border restrictions and lockdown several reasons, large international operators are considered to measures taken by governments to control the spread of be in a better position to adapt to and survive the pandemic. the virus have disrupted international trade and global First, hotels that were not highly leveraged at the onset of supply chains, which could take some time to return to pre- the pandemic are more likely to have access to the finance COVID-19 levels. In the case of the tourism sector, reliance needed to weather the crisis. Hotel chains with substantial on imports could increase operational costs and may cause physical assets, brand value, and, in some cases, diversification delays that result in a loss of competitiveness. By contrast, in other lines of business will have a comparative advantage countries with vertically integrated supply chains and robust in recovering. Furloughing and laying off hundreds of local production capacity may be better able to control costs thousands of employees is only a partial answer to the drop and rebound faster. in demand, and could hurt businesses over the long term due to insufficient maintenance, loss of human capital, and loss of Government assistance to the tourism sector engagement with clients. Governments’ policies and interventions will be critical for Access to liquidity will be essential to maintaining hotel the recovery of the tourism sector. As noted above, images facilities and sustaining their operations throughout the and perceptions play an important role in tourists’ destination downturn, as well as to financing improvements to facilities choices. Governments can partner with the private sector in and adjustments to new health requirements, training staff, funding global marketing campaigns to improve perceptions. and offering extra services to cater to travelers’ changing For example, Barbados quickly launched a 12-month Welcome needs and preferences. Small, privately owned hotels may be Stamp—a new visa that allows remote workers to live and work more constrained financially when it comes to making these from the country for up to a year. Conversely, when reopenings accommodations. The cash necessary to launch marketing are accompanied by confusing messages about durations of campaigns while restarting operations may only be available individual reopening phases, unclear communications where to the largest operators. movement restrictions are supposed to be in place, or a lack of clarity about when COVID-19 tests are required, the effects on The ability to work with other sectors in the economy and the tourism sector can be amplified. loyalty programs also give large operators advantages and a higher chance of a successful recovery. For example, large Finding the right balance with regard to arrivals and hotel operators can cooperate with healthcare, financial, departures (checking passports and visas as well as screening and transportation businesses to provide seamless services, for security and customs) is important. Lengthy procedures and thereby create new products that appeal to travelers can increase the risk of infection, as they prolong the time in the post-COVID-19 era. Large operators will also be in that travelers remain in an enclosed space, and can expose a position to offer options that better cater to the needs of their belongings to contamination. Conversely, full social travelers. For example, a luxury hotel chain in Thailand distancing could result in long lines and even delayed flights. (Anantara) has joined the country’s Alternative State Two-week quarantines on arrival and after returning home Quarantine accommodation program, and is offering a is another issue that makes a holiday out of the question for package for the mandatory 14-day quarantine in its hotels. many people. 5 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. Governments need to balance these competing priorities and to support domestic tourism. It is likely that the model that send clear messages to support the restart of tourism. As works in Asia could also be used to guide recovery in other noted above, implementing digital technology could facilitate regions of the world. travelers’ entry and departure processes. For example, as international tourism restarts, artificial intelligence Small Islands—Caribbean and Pacific Islands could improve contact tracing and help control outbreaks. Small islands are likely VULNERABILITIES RESILIENCE Additionally, governments that are at the same stage with to suffer the most regard to domestic infections could cooperate with each other Tourism Access from the COVID-19 to facilitate the resumption of tourism. For instance, European share Domestic Demand pandemic, as they countries outside the Schengen Area quickly resumed travel are highly dependent Local Private Sector with those within it. Japan was considering a travel bubble COVID-19 on international Infra Government Support with Australia, China, New Zealand, Korea, Thailand, and tourism, and access Vietnam prior to Japan’s second wave of infections in late July. is limited to air travel and cruise ships. Due to their small size In sum, clear, flexible, and measured policies can facilitate and and remote locations, most islands also lack good healthcare accelerate the recovery of the tourism sector. facilities, and they have to import most of their supplies, both of which can critically affect tourists’ choices of destination. Views on Regional Recovery Cruise travel, which contributes a large number of tourists to many of these destinations, has been heavily affected by East and Southeast Asia COVID-19 cases. In terms of recovery, tourism on small VULNERABILITIES The East and RESILIENCE islands will largely depend on recovery in their source nations Southeast Asia (ESEA) (the United States, Canada, and Europe) as they lack domestic Tourism Access Region was the first demand, and have limited supply chains. Large operators are share Domestic Demand to report COVID-19 likely to lead the recovery in these destinations by leveraging Private Sector cases in late their regional and international networks. Local COVID-19 January 2020. Most Infra Government Support destinations—China, Sub-Saharan Africa Japan, Korea, Hong Kong SAR, China, Taiwan, China, VULNERABILITIES RESILIENCE It is still too Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar—managed the early to tell how first wave of infections well and began to relax controls after Tourism Access Africa will handle only a few new cases were reported. However, a second wave share Domestic Demand the COVID-19 of infections in some countries in late July and early August Private Sector pandemic, as it was resulted in another round of movement restrictions and the Local COVID-19 the last region to cancellation of plans for a tourism bubble. Infra Government Support be affected by the Travel and tourism in the ESEA accounts for a sizable share virus. As of August 2020, South Africa had the fifth highest of destinations’ GDP, which makes them quite vulnerable number of cases in the world, followed by Nigeria (50th), to the impact of the pandemic. As noted above, some prime Ghana (52nd), and Ethiopia (56th). For the majority of destinations are not easily accessed by any means other than African countries, tourism is not a major economic sector, air travel. However, with a few exceptions, most countries but the few countries that do have a significant tourism in ESEA have adequate local infrastructure and healthcare sector are highly dependent on international arrivals. In systems. Also, as noted previously, they have benefited from terms of location, their destinations are remote, with air prior experience with health crises (SARS, Avian Flu, and travel concentrated in a few international airports. In Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), which has allowed addition, tourists will be concerned about the lack of quality them to respond to COVID-19 in a timely manner. When healthcare facilities and the lack of land transportation that resilience factors that could contribute to the recovery of the could limit their ability to move between destinations. It tourism sector are taken into consideration, the ESEA Region is likely that Africa will take longer to recover than other is poised to emerge from the crisis once the virus is under regions, primarily due to the lack of domestic and intra- control, provided that the region: has the ability to generate regional demand, the limited number of large operators, strong demand from domestic and intra-regional tourists (led and the sector’s weaker supply chain. Tourism may also not by China); has a strong and experienced private sector, both be a priority for many African governments, as concerns in terms of hotel operators and well-integrated supply chains; about other sectors such as healthcare, manufacturing, and and has governments that have already launched campaigns agriculture could be more pressing. 6 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. Latin America much volume as soon as possible. Much remains unknown, As of August 2020, but based on lessons learned from previous crises, some areas VULNERABILITIES RESILIENCE Latin America was where IFC and the private sector could contribute to the Tourism still struggling to recovery of tourism are as follows: Access share Domestic Demand control the spread • Approach the recovery with a long-term sectoral view. Private Sector of COVID-19, IFC can play an effective countercyclical role by providing Local COVID-19 with five countries support to hotels that are well-managed, socially and Infra Government Support among the world’s environmentally responsible, and that were not heavily top 10 in terms of COVID-19 case numbers. With the leveraged prior to the onset of the pandemic. United States as the principal source nation for travelers to • Work with sponsors with large footprints to widen the Latin America, tourism demand will be affected by the U.S. impacts. Large hotel chains/operators employ hundreds domestic situation. Most Latin American countries, however, of thousands of people and work with tens of thousands do not rely on tourism for exports. For example, tourism’s of suppliers and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). share of total exports is only 2 percent for Brazil, 5 percent Supporting their recovery will indirectly contribute to for Mexico, and 9 percent for Peru. The countries in Latin the recovery of the local economy, and will benefit wage America that rely the most on tourism as exports are Panama earners, entrepreneurs, and farmers. (28 percent), followed by Uruguay (17 percent), and Colombia • Address the most acute needs. Help the hotel industry by (14 percent). In terms of location, the region is well-connected providing working capital to maintain their properties, to certain destinations that rely on air travel, and they have preserve their jobs, and sustain demand in the tourism good potential for domestic and intra-regional travel that supply chain so that operations can quickly restart when could help, initially, with the recovery of tourism. In popular the pandemic abates. Most hotels are short of cash, as they destinations there are large operators with well-established have earned no income during travel bans, and they need supply chains that could restart their operations as soon as additional capital to restart their operations. Such capital governments lift travel bans. However, due to tourism’s small share of GDP, many governments may not prioritize tourism could be scarce as commercial banks are experiencing a in their economic recovery plan. high level of nonperforming loans. • Sequence different types of hotel properties and locations Views about the Path to Recovery based on their needs. For example, leisure hotels are likely Countries that have managed to control the spread of to be the first to reopen, followed by business hotels. Small COVID-19 such as China, Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam island economies that largely depend on international offer a glimpse of what could be a two-stage path to recovery: tourism will have greater needs than those in countries demand recovery and earnings recovery. Summer travel picked where tourism is not the main economic sector. up in major tourist destinations as a result of government • Connect hotel operators to other sectors that could enable campaigns, attractive promotions, and/or improved the recovery of tourism such as insurance and health perceptions. However, demand remains fragile and can facility operators. For example: quickly reverse as long as there is no permanent solution (such • Partnering with insurance companies could provide as an effective vaccine). As soon as cases start to rise again, medical insurance for those who book directly with restrictions can be re-imposed. With a reliable vaccination and hotels; and/or tourism infrastructure back in full operation, the earnings of • Partnering with hospitals could offer alternative tourism operators could still take up to five years to recover quarantine facilities, or full-time medical access and due to having to offer deep discount rates; competing with testing if staying in a hotel. new supply that could come onto the market; and higher operating costs to meet the new health and hygiene standards. • Provide flexible financing. Help hotel operators by structuring their terms to allow a longer-than-usual Lessons Learned and Recommendations repayment period. International tourism will only fully recover after a vaccine • Invest in high-value distressed assets. Despite having is effectively deployed. Currently, the challenges facing the significant financial difficulties during the pandemic, tourism sector are mainly how to sustain operations and hotels that were profitable prior to the crisis are likely to preserve jobs until the crisis abates, and how to bring back as eventually recover and become sustainable again. 7 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank the following colleagues for their review and suggestions: Issa Faye, Director, Sector Economics and Development Impact, Economics and Private Sector Development, IFC; within Sector Economics and Development Impact—Manufacturing, Agribusiness, and Services, Economics and Private Sector Development, IFC: Lorenzo Ciari, Manager, Sector Economics and Development Impact – Manufacturing, Agribusiness, and Services, Economics and Private Sector Development, IFC; Veronica Navas, Senior Economist; within Global Manufacturing, Agribusiness, and Services—Tourism, Retail and Property, IFC: Patrick J. Leahy, Senior Manager; Shamsah Fatima Dhala, Principal Investment Officer; and Bernard Micallef, Senior Industry Specialist; and Thomas Rehermann, Senior Economist, Thought Leadership, Economics and Private Sector Development, IFC. Please see the following additional reports and EM Compass Notes about responses to COVID-19 and about reaching unserved and underserved populations in emerging markets: Artificial Intelligence in Emerging Markets—Opportunities, Trends, and Emerging Business Models (report, September 2020); Impacts of COVID-19 on the Private Sector in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (Note 93, Nov 2020); How Natural Capital Approaches Can Support Sustainable Investments and Markets (Note 92, October 2020); AI Investments Allow Emerging Markets to Develop and Expand Sophisticated Manufacturing Capabilities (Note 87, July 2020); Leveraging Inclusive Businesses Models to Support the Base of the Pyramid during COVID-19 (Note 84, May 2020); What COVID-19 Means for Digital Infrastructure in Emerging Markets (Note 83, May 2020); Artificial Intelligence in the Power Sector (Note 81, April 2020); Accelerating Digital Connectivity Through Infrastructure Sharing (Note 79, February 2020); Artificial Intelligence and 5G Mobile Technology Can Drive Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets (Note 76, December 2019); The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Supporting Development in Emerging Markets (Note 69, July 2019). 1 Hale, Thomas, Noam Angrist, Emily Cameron-Blake, Laura Hallas, Beatriz Kira, Saptarshi Majumdar, Anna Petherick, Toby Phillips, Helen Tatlow, Samuel Webster. 2020. “Variation in Government Responses to COVID-19.” Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper, May 1, 2020. www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/covidtracker 2 Data from UNWTO. https://www.unwto.org/unwto-tourism-dashboard. 3 Antara, Made, and Made Sri Sumarniasih. 2017. “Role of tourism in economy of Bali and Indonesia.” Journal of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Vol. 5, no. 2(2017): 34–44. http://jthmnet.com/journals/jthm/Vol_5_No_2_December_2017/4.pdf. 4 WTTC (World Travel and Tourism Council). 2020. “Travel and Tourism Recovery Scenarios 2020 and Economic Impact from COVID-19.” WTTC Research Note. July 17, 2020 https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-Impact/Recovery-Scenarios-2020-Economic-Impact-from-COVID-19. Additional EM Compass Notes NOVEMBER 2020 JUNE 2020 Note 94: Deep Tech Solutions for Emerging Markets Note 86: Leveraging Big Data to Advance Gender Equality Note 93: Impacts of COVID-19 on the Private Sector in Note 85: Artificial Intelligence Innovation in Financial Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations Services OCTOBER 2020 MAY 2020 Note 92: How Natural Capital Approaches Can Support Note 84: Leveraging Inclusive Businesses Models to Sustainable Investments and Markets Support the Base of the Pyramid during COVID-19 Note 83: What COVID-19 Means for Digital Infrastructure SEPTEMBER 2020 in Emerging Markets Note 91: Artificial Intelligence and Healthcare in Emerging Note 82: Artificial Intelligence in Agribusiness is Growing Markets in Emerging Markets Note 90: Lessons for Electric Utilities from COVID-19 Responses in Emerging Markets APRIL 2020 Note 81: Artificial Intelligence in the Power Sector AUGUST 2020 Note 89: Social Bonds Can Help Mitigate the Economic MARCH 2020 and Social Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis Note 80: Developing Artificial Intelligence Sustainably: Note 88: What African Industrial Development Can Learn Toward a Practical Code of Conduct for Disruptive from East Asian Successes—The Role of Complexity and Technologies Economic Fitness Note 80a: IFC Technology Code of Conduct—Progression Matrix—Public Draft—Addendum to Note 80 JULY 2020 Note 87: AI Investments Allow Emerging Markets to FEBRUARY 2020 Develop and Expand Sophisticated Manufacturing Note 79: Accelerating Digital Connectivity Through Capabilities Infrastructure Sharing 8 This publication may be reused for noncommercial purposes if the source is cited as IFC, a member of the World Bank Group.