January 2025 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) Report The December 17, 2024 Mw 7.3 earthquake in Port Vila, Vanuatu Based on the situation as of December 25, 2024 1 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Disclaimer © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) with external contributions. The findings, analysis and conclusions expressed in this document do not necessarily reflect the views of any individual partner organization of The World Bank, its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. 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Cover credit: © Niki Kuautonga 2 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Acknowledgements This report was prepared by a team led by Rashmin Gunasekera and Oscar A. Ishizawa (World Bank’s Disaster Climate Risk Management, IDURM and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery - GFDRR). The team comprises James Daniell, Antonios Pomonis, Harriette Stone, Andreas Schaefer, Mikhail Sirenko, Bijan Khazai, Annika Maier, Bramka Jafino, Guillermo Toyos, Johannes Brand, Roberth Romero, Diana Cubas, and Kerri Cox of the IDURM’s Global Program for Disaster Risk Analytics (GPDRA) and the World Bank’s IDUDR Disaster Resilience Analytics and Solutions (D-RAS) team. Contributions on gender are from Zoe Trohanis, Mirtha Escobar, and Arjola Limani (IDURM, GFDRR/World Bank) and the map clearance process was supported by the World Bank’s Map Clearance team. The assessment received financing support from GFDRR and the Ministry of Finance, Japan, through the Japan-World Bank program for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in Developing Countries. The assessment also received financial contributions from the Papua New Guinea and the Pacific Islands Umbrella Facility (PPIUF) supported by the Governments of Australia and New Zealand. The team gratefully acknowledges the contribution and guidance of peer reviewers Michaela Mei Dolk (Financial Sector Specialist, EFNRF) and Vishesh Agarwal (Economist, EEAM2) as well as Leisande Otto (Country Officer, Vanuatu, EACVA). We also acknowledge the advice, support, and information shared by the Government of Vanuatu; as well as the data and information shared by GNS New Zealand and New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF). The team also acknowledges the support, contributions, and guidance from Stephen Ndegwa (Country Director for Papua New Guinea and Pacific Islands, East Asia and Pacific Region), Annette Leith (Resident Representative), Bjorn Philipp (Practice Manager, IEAU1), Lars Christian Moller (Practice Manager, EEAM2), Armando Guzman (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, IEAU1), Georgina McArthur (Disaster Risk Management Specialist, IEAU1), Tevi Obed (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, IEAU1), Jian Vun (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist, IEAU1), Andre Bald (Lead Urban Specialist, IEAU1), and Lodewijk Smets (Senior Economist, EEAM2). Editorial support was provided by Angela Takats. 3 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Abbreviations D-RAS Disaster-Resilience Analytics and Solutions Team, World Bank Group DG-ECHO European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations FOA Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GDP Gross Domestic Product GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GPURL Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land Global Practice GRADE Global Rapid Post-disaster Damage Estimation MMI Modified Mercalli Intensity Mw Moment Magnitude NDMO National Disaster Management Office NEOC National Emergency Operations Centre NZ New Zealand OSM Open Street Map QFES/QFD Queensland Fire Department SIDS Small Island Development States SPC The Pacific Community, formerly the South Pacific Commission UCC Unit costs of construction UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UNOSAT United Nations Satellite Centre USGS United States Geological Survey USD United States Dollars UTC Universal Coordinated Time VUT Vanuatu Time WHO World Health Organization 4 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Contents Disclaimer........................................................................................................................................ 2 Acknowledgements......................................................................................................................... 3 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................. 4 Contents .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Executive Summary......................................................................................................................... 6 1.0 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 8 1.1 Context ............................................................................................................................ 8 1.2 Summary of past damaging earthquakes ..................................................................... 10 1.3 Event description .......................................................................................................... 11 1.4 Reported impacts.......................................................................................................... 11 2.0 Direct Damage Estimation Methodology .............................................................................. 14 3.0 Results.................................................................................................................................... 17 4.0 Implications of results ........................................................................................................... 20 5.0 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................ 25 6.0 References ............................................................................................................................. 27 Annex A: Data sources .................................................................................................................. 28 Annex B: Historical earthquake event descriptions...................................................................... 29 5 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Executive Summary This Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) report provides a synopsis of the estimated direct economic damage to physical assets in Vanuatu due to the December 17, 2024 earthquake. The report is based on a rapid and remote post-disaster damage assessment that follows the established GRADE methodology1. On December 17, 2024, a 7.3 Moment Magnitude (MW) earthquake caused the loss of 14 lives, the displacement of 2,638 persons, and significant damage to buildings and infrastructure in the capital city of Port Vila and surrounding area2. This was the most damaging and lethal earthquake in Vanuatu’s recent history. Damage estimations were assessed using the GRADE methodology which collects, monitors and reviews data thoroughly, compares damage estimations with historical events, and calibrates estimations through cross-checking, and validation. A hybrid modelling framework using traditional event-based risk modelling for the estimated shaking, was combined with direct damage estimation of the affected assets to provide the overall damage estimate. Poverty impacts were also analyzed. 1. The results of the GRADE assessment are summarized below and in Table 1: Total direct economic damages to physical assets are estimated at USD 197 million, or equivalent to approximately 17 percent of Vanuatu’s 2023 gross domestic product (GDP), or 2.7 percent of the total capital stock (exposure) value. 2. Physical damages are nearly entirely restricted to the Shefa province, where Port Vila is located. 3. Residential and non-residential buildings damage accounted for over two-thirds (69 percent) of the direct total damage. Damage to residential buildings, including contents, is estimated at USD 49.9 million, with a range of damage levels reported from fully destroyed to moderate damage. Damage to non-residential buildings is estimated to be substantial at USD 86.2 million, with significant damage observed to education buildings, healthcare facilities, commercial, and industrial buildings. 4. Infrastructure damage is estimated at USD 52.3 million, accounting for approximately one- quarter (27 percent) of the total damage. This includes damage to energy, water, and telecommunications networks, as well as transport assets including roads, bridges, seaports, airports, and coastal structures. 5. Damage to the agriculture sector, including agricultural buildings, assets, and infrastructure, is estimated to be USD 8.7 million. 6. Ground-shaking was the primary cause for damages, but landslides induced by the shaking caused some of the damage to buildings and infrastructure and cut off critical access to the main seaport. 7. On average, households are set to lose 24 percent3 of their annual consumption, however, the poorest are hardest hit. Poor households face approximately a 65 percent loss, and households with primary-level education will lose approximately 19 percent. In contrast, households with 1 Global Rapid post-disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) approach developed at the World Bank and conducted by the Global Practice for Urban, Resilience and Land (GPURL) Disaster-Resilience Analytics & Solutions (D-RAS) Knowledge Silo Breaker. The methodology aims to address specific damage information needs in the first few weeks after a major disaster. See: https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/DRAS_web_04172018.pdf for details of the methodology. 2 Government of Vanuatu, National Disaster Management Office. NEOC Situation Report No. 8, 24 December 2024. 3 Due to uncertainties surrounding these model estimates, the value of this indicator varies from 20 percent to 27 percent. 6 _____________________________________________________________________________________ secondary or tertiary education, as well as those in urban areas, are expected to experience considerably lower impacts. 8. There is the potential for this event to push more than 2,150 people into poverty , with the modelled values ranging from approximately 391 people to as many as approximately 5,500 people. Table 1: Summary of GRADE estimations of direct economic damage in Vanuatu from the December 17, 2024, earthquake, in USD millions. Estimated Proportion of Sector Definition damages total damage (USD millions) Residential Houses and contents $49.9 25% Non- Commercial, industrial, public, and mixed- $86.2 44% Residential use buildings and contents Power networks, water networks, Infrastructure telecoms, seaports, jetties, coastal $52.3 27% structures, airports, roads, bridges, fisheries Agricultural buildings, assets, and related Agriculture $8.7 4% infrastructure $197.0 Total (17% of 2023 GDP4) As part of this GRADE assessment, the team updated an exposure model developed for Vanuatu in 2023 for the GRADE assessment of Tropical Cyclones Judy and Kevin5. The updated exposure model estimates a total replacement value of assets (prior to the earthquake), representing the capital stock of the country. The exposure model includes residential and non-residential buildings and infrastructure sectors amounting to USD 7.57 billion. This GRADE assessment is intended as a rapid remote estimate prepared within a short timeframe to inform early decision-making and is not intended as a substitute for detailed on-the-ground analysis which may be conducted in the weeks and months after an event. The GRADE assessment should be interpreted as a first-order estimation of direct damages, albeit with a significant degree of reliability. While there is confidence in the overall damage estimates and distribution of damage, the confidence level at the individual asset level is low and therefore results are presented at aggregated levels. Reconstruction costs are expected to be higher than the current estimated damages. Estimates of direct damage presented in this report do not include costs associated with humanitarian and emergency response, or the losses associated with economic flows (e.g., business interruption). Moreover, assessments of damage are still ongoing across many sectors. These damage estimates also do not consider uncertainty due to factors such as increased costs of materials, and potentially labor, commonly experienced in Small Island Development States (SIDS) after disasters. Based on global experience, 4World Bank Group, Data Bank. 5Gunasekera et al. (2015) Developing an adaptive global exposure model to support the generation of country disaster risk profiles. Earth Science Reviews. 150. 594-608. 7 _____________________________________________________________________________________ recovery and reconstruction costs will be much higher, potentially greater than twice the estimate, and GDP losses associated with economic disruptions will also add to the cost of the earthquake. 1.0 Introduction The objectives of this report include to provide an estimate of the direct economic damage to physical assets caused by the December 17, 2024 earthquake in Vanuatu; to provide information on the sectoral and spatial distribution of damage; and, in so doing, to support development of a roadmap for recovery and reconstruction. Data sources used are highlighted in Annex A. 1.1 Context The Republic of Vanuatu is a volcanic archipelago located in the South Pacific Ocean to the northeast of New Caledonia. It consists of 83 islands, of which 63 are inhabited, spread over 1,300 kilometers. The total land area is approximately 4,700 square kilometers and it is home to approximately 300,000 people, as per the 2020 census6. The country gained independence in 1980 after a long colonial history. It is divided into six provinces, and the capital and largest urban area, Port Vila, which is home to approximately 50,000 people, is located on Efate Island in Shefa province (Figure 1). The only other urban area in Vanuatu is Luganville, which is located on Espiritu Santo Island in the Sanma province, with a recorded population of 17,719 per the 2020 census. Vanuatu is a small island developing state with a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of USD3,660 in 2023. In 2024, an estimated 46 percent of the population lives under the lower-middle income poverty rate of USD3.65 a day (2017 Purchasing Power Parity). The economy is constrained due to the lack of economies of scale with economic activity concentrated in a few key sectors. The formal sector is composed primarily of tourism, while informal subsistence activity dominates outside of major urban centers. Remoteness from major markets pushes up the costs of trade and providing public services. Despite recent natural, political and fiscal shocks, the Vanuatu economy is expected to rebound from 2026 onwards, supported by reconstruction spending and resumption in tourism activity, although the earthquake is expected to delay fiscal consolidation plans and significantly increase the financing requirements. Vanuatu is prone to a range of natural hazards. Tropical cyclones are frequent, with recent significant events in 2015 (Cyclone Pam), 2020 (Cyclone Harold), and 2023 (Cyclones Judy and Kevin). Volcanic activity is also a risk with several active volcanoes both on land and underwater, which erupted most recently in 2018 (Ambae volcano). Seismic activity is also relatively frequent given Vanuatu’s location along the highly active New Hebrides Trench where the Australian plate descends eastward beneath the Pacific plate, moving east-northeast at approximately 85 mm per year relatively. Tsunamis are also a very present threat. An analysis of historical seismic events is included in section 1.2 and Annex B. Buildings in Vanuatu are predominantly constructed with concrete, masonry, and timber walls, or with makeshift materials in more informal or rural settings. The Building Act No. 36 of 2013 and The National Building Code for Vanuatu 2000 (VNBC) (approved under the "Building Code Standards for Construction Work, Order No. 110 of 2017") is currently being updated by the Building Code Technical Working Group with the assistance of the Pacific Region Infrastructure Facility (PRIF). The Building Act and VNBC are planned to be updated in 2025. The Building Act will require parliamentary approval while the VNBC will 6 2020 National Population and Housing Census, Vanuatu National Statistics Office. 8 _____________________________________________________________________________________ require a ministerial order. Due to the December 17, 2024 earthquake event, a ministerial order to amend the 2000 VNBC is currently being considered which would update the earthquake and wind hazard parameters as well as integrating the prevention, control, and management of asbestos, as an interim measure prior to the full update of the VNBC in 2025. Figure 1. Map of Vanuatu. Source: https://vutconsulate.org/about-vanuatu/?lang=en 9 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Social vulnerability to disasters is impacted by fragile healthcare and infrastructure systems (Jackson et al., 2017), gender inequality, and the erosion of traditional governance and shifting societal structures which have weakened social cohesion (Warrick, 2011). Ratuva (2010) highlights that Vanuatu’s limited state resources and dependence on informal social protection systems leave communities vulnerable to shocks and slow recovery. Models such as the World Bank’s Unbreakable 7 model improve the understanding of the impacts of disasters on society at the household level. 1.2 Summary of past damaging earthquakes Vanuatu has experienced numerous significant earthquakes throughout its history, as a result of the nearby, highly active Australian and Pacific plates. In the past 60 years, tectonic activity impacting Vanuatu has ranged in magnitude up to 7.6, with the most destructive events frequently accompanied by tsunamis and/or landslides. Since 1965, more than 15 damaging earthquakes with a moment magnitude higher than 5.4 have been recorded within close range of Vanuatu – on average, there is a significant earthquake once every four years. The islands that form Vanuatu are spread over 1,300 kilometers, therefore, earthquake shaking effects are often localized. Fatalities and economic damages from past events have tended to be low given population distributions and construction typologies. The quality and depth of reporting on past events varies; however, a synopsis of reports from key seismic events is given below. More detailed reporting is provided in Annex B. In 1965, the largest earthquake in recent recorded history, a MW 7.6 earthquake, struck Malakula and Espiritu Santo causing damage to buildings and a wharf as well as an embankment collapse, landslides, and ground fissures. Six years later, in 1971, a MW 7.1 earthquake caused damage to parts of Luganville that are situated on softer soils. Damage to many buildings (between 101 and 1,000 in number) was also reported in a 1990 MW 7.5 earthquake in Espiritu Santo. Ten lives were later lost in the 1999 Pentecost Island earthquake (MW 7.5) which triggered a tsunami that destroyed the village of Baie Martelli and reportedly damaged around 1,000 houses. The most recent earthquake to impact the capital of Vanuatu (prior to the December 2024 event) was the 2002 Port Vila MW 7.2 earthquake, which caused major building and infrastructure damage, including damage to 51 to 100 houses. Later in 2002, a M W 5.9 earthquake in Merelava in Torba province caused localized landslides that damaged roads, wells, and gardens. Tongoa Island was impacted by a M W 5.7 earthquake in 2009 which caused damage to health centers, schools and roads as well as between 51 and 100 homes. A Mw 7.3 earthquake impacted West of Isangel, Tanna in 2010, causing four injuries and triggering a tsunami. Landslides and road damage were reported following a Mw 6.4 earthquake in northeast Paama. Also in 2010, a Mw 7.2 earthquake impacted Port Vila and was felt at Longana and Luganville, as well as Noumea in New Caledonia. A 23-centimeter tsunami (center-to-peak) was recorded at Port Vila, but no significant damage was reported. A Mw 7.2 earthquake struck 71 kilometers from Port Vila in 2011 but although shaking was felt to a Modified Mercalli Intensity8 (MMI) of V, no damage was recorded. An underwater volcanic eruption in 2018 caused tremors on Ambrym Island but no damage was reported. In 2023, a Mw 6.9 earthquake was recorded near Espiritu Santo with no reported impacts. 7 https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/512241480487839624/pdf/Unbreakable-building-the-resilience-of-the-poor- in-the-face-of-natural-disasters.pdf 8 https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/modified-mercalli-intensity-scale 10 _____________________________________________________________________________________ 1.3 Event description A MW 7.3 earthquake struck Port Vila, Vanuatu on December 17, 2024, at 12:47:26 Vanuatu Time (VUT) (01:47:26 UTC), with an epicenter approximately 30 kilometers (19 miles) west of Port Vila, off the coast of Efate Island. The earthquake occurred at a depth of 57.1 kilometers with strong shaking felt in Port Vila, lasting approximately 30 seconds. It is suspected that this event produced the most intense ground shaking levels in Port Vila for many years and is the deadliest in Vanuatu since at least 1900. The earthquake's focal depth places it beneath the boundary of the Australia and Pacific plates in the Coral Sea region, within the subducting Australia plate. This depth indicates a relatively shallow focus earthquake, which can cause a significant level of ground shaking experienced on the surface. As of December 25, 23 aftershocks of Mw 4.5 or greater had been recorded, including a Mw 6.1 event on December 21. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) identified two possible finite fault models for the earthquake. One model suggests rupture along a northwest-trending fault with a shallow dip to the west- southwest, while the other points to rupture along an east-northeast fault with a near-vertical dip. Both models estimated a maximum slip of 3 meters (9.8 feet) (USGS, 2024). The earthquake generated a minor tsunami of 25 centimeters (10 inches), but no severe coastal flooding was observed. 1.4 Reported impacts The December 17, 2024, earthquake caused widespread damage in Port Vila and surrounding areas. Port Vila, the nation’s capital, experienced severe shaking classified as intensity VII-VIII (Figure 2). A state of emergency was declared soon after the event, lasting seven days. The impacts of the disaster have affected critical infrastructure, essential services, and key economic sectors. Reported impacts are compiled below from several sources (see Annex A), but primarily from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs’ (UN OCHA) Pacific Humanitarian Team 9 and the Government of Vanuatu’s National Disaster Management Office (NDMO)10. The earthquake resulted in 14 fatalities and 265 injuries, with eight deaths attributed to building collapses and six to landslides. By December 24, the temporarily displaced population was around 2,500 across six evacuation centers and 67 host households. Search and rescue operations, supported by specialized teams from Australia and New Zealand, were conducted to locate survivors in collapsed buildings. For the purposes of this GRADE report, a custom ShakeMap was developed to better illustrate the reported impacts of the main earthquake and significant aftershocks. Figure 2 depicts the composite event ShakeMap, complete with a color-coded scale indicating the severity of shaking in peak ground acceleration (PGA). 9 Pacific Humanitarian Team situation report, 26 December 2024. Available at: https://d10.logcluster.org/en/document/vanuatu-pacific-humanitarian-team-pht-situation-update-no1-vanuatu-earthquake- 26-december 10 Government of Vanuatu’s National Disaster Management Office, Situation Report No. 8 on 26 December 2024. 11 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Location of fault rupture Efate Island Figure 2. Estimated ground motion map for the Mw 7.3 earthquake offshore Port Vila, Vanuatu and estimated rupture slip model. Ground motion, almost entirely contained in Efate Island, is given as peak ground acceleration in g (1g = 9.8 m/s2) 12 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Building collapses have been reported following the earthquake. Significant damage was reported in Port Vila’s central business district, leading to prolonged closures impacting businesses 11, particularly during the critical Christmas period. Notable examples of building collapse in Port Vila include:  The two-story Billabong building, a mixed-use reinforced concrete structure, fully collapsed in a pancake manner trapping many occupants.  The four-story reinforced concrete frame structure housing the diplomatic missions of USA, UK, France, and New Zealand suffered ground floor failure on one wing and severe structural damage on the other.  The four-story reinforced concrete frame Kenwu Industry building also failed at the ground floor level across its entire footprint. By December 26, NDMO reported that a total of 211 houses had been assessed as damaged , with 10 houses fully destroyed, 35 severely damaged, and 50 moderately damaged, affecting 1,050 individuals. In the education sector, a total of 100 classrooms across 45 schools and 24 dormitories were reported as destroyed, affecting access to education for 2,665 children. The tourism sector was also impacted. Despite initial disruptions, 70 percent of tourism businesses in Port Vila and Efate were operational by December 28, 2024. The industry’s recovery is critical, given its importance to the national economy.12 Transport systems have been severely impacted. Landslides blocked roads, including access routes to the airport and seaport. While Bauerfield International Airport resumed commercial operations four days post-earthquake, the seaport remains closed. Additionally, key bridges, including the Tagabe, Teouma, and Blacksand bridges, were declared “at high risk of collapse” in the event of further heavy rains. The water system was badly hit. Two major water reservoirs in Port Vila were destroyed, leading to severe water shortages. By December 26, 2024, 77 percent of the service had been restored but full recovery is expected to take weeks. Over 69,200 liters of water have been distributed to affected communities, including the installation of water bladders at Vila Central Hospital and other critical sites. Hygiene kits have been distributed to displaced populations to address sanitation needs. Contaminated water sources increased the risk of disease outbreaks, necessitating urgent clean water supplies and sanitation measures. Electricity and telecommunications systems were impacted but service is steadily resuming. Power supply was 71 percent restored by December 26; however, telecommunication disruptions persisted, largely due to damage at the optical fiber cable landing station in Port Vila. Acid leaks from damaged backup batteries at the internet landing station pose environmental hazards. Key health system assets were affected and the system faced challenges providing services to those in need. While 18 of 22 health facilities in Efate remained operational, Vila Central Hospital faced severe 11 https://www.dailypost.vu/news/port-vila-city-shuts-down-for-the-first-time-in-years-ahead-of-christmas/article_0900791d- 9eb7-5e99-8fa2-63e4e4a921df.html 12 https://www.dailypost.vu/news/over-70-of-tourism-businesses-ready-to-welcome-guests-post- earthquake/article_2647252d-d672-5b03-95e3-27604b0eb693.html 13 _____________________________________________________________________________________ challenges due to overcrowding, lack of water, and limited medical resources. Mass casualty triage centers were established to address urgent medical needs. The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the World Health Organization (WHO) have collaborated with the Ministry of Health to conduct rapid assessments across health facilities, leading to enhanced support for primary healthcare services and nutrition outreach programs. Psychological First Aid is being provided to affected individuals to address trauma. 2.0 Direct Damage Estimation Methodology The methodology adopted here follows the GRADE methodology as detailed in Gunasekera et al., (2018)13. It provides a fast first-order approximation of the direct economic impact and so provides a rapid high-level estimate of damage to physical assets which can be used to inform decisions in a timely fashion. However, a full catastrophe modelling approach was not adopted in this case. Given that the scale of the impacted area was relatively small (compared to, say, a large city scale) and that the country context is well known by the GRADE assessment team, better results can be achieved through an engineering approach, which directly considers damage to buildings and other assets. In the past eight years, the World Bank Disaster-Resilience Analytics and Solutions (D-RAS) team has produced 13 earthquake-related GRADE assessments (Gunasekera et al., 2023). The most recent was for the October 2023 Afghanistan earthquake sequence in Herat. The GRADE methodology adopted estimates of damages using reported damage data. This methodology is conducted in three stages: 1. Data collection, monitoring, and checking. 2. Comparison with damage estimates for historical events. 3. Calibration, modelling, cross-checking, and validation. The GRADE assessment provides an estimation of the direct damage caused by the earthquake in Vanuatu, through a remote desk-based methodology that utilizes a mix of earthquake damage modelling, and an assessment of capital stock value of different assets and sectors. The development of the exposure model, which encompasses all sectoral assets in the country, drew on previous work14 including the 2020 census, the living condition survey, and other government sources. Where data were out of date, updates and projections were included to achieve an up-to-date exposure model (an example of this is the considerable increase to replacement costs that the global pandemic and war in Europe brought, which resulted in the exposure values rising significantly in recent years). The exposure values, representing the replacement cost estimates of built assets and their contents in each province, are presented in Table 2 and Figure 3. Total exposure of buildings and infrastructure is estimated to be USD 7.57 billion. 13See: https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/DRAS_web_04172018.pdf for details of the methodology. 14GRADE report for 2023 Cyclone Judy and Kevin in Vanuatu, which built on the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Insurance Company datasets. 14 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Table 2: 2024 Exposure Values Calculated for Vanuatu in USD millions. The majority of Vanuatu’s exposure is located in Shefa province (61 percent) where Port Vila is located. Non-residential assets have the highest exposure value at USD 2.92 billion, forming 39 percent of the total exposure, closely followed by residential assets valued at USD 2.85 billion (38 percent of the total exposure). Infrastructure assets are valued at USD 1.8 billion, which includes roads, airports, seaports, and other transport infrastructure, and service provision networks including electricity, water, and telecommunications. Beyond the exposure analysis, several tasks were undertaken to estimate the physical damage caused by the earthquake. These include: 1. Rapid collection and analysis of satellite imagery, damage data, government damage assessment reports, public sources such as newspaper articles, local newspapers, situation reports, UN agency situation reports (e.g., OCHA and WHO), UNOSAT Satellite Derived Damage Assessments, and information from local NGOs. Further information is detailed in Annex A. 2. Re-creation of earthquake ground motion through hazard modelling across the affected region, in addition to intensity and damage data across Vanuatu. The intensities and ground motions were calibrated, and a series of maps were created as more data became available. 3. Development of an infrastructure exposure database and analysis of current unit costs of construction in Vanuatu and projected to 2024 (see more below). 4. Vulnerability and fragility modelling of Vanuatu building and infrastructure typologies including modelling of agriculture and livestock damages. With these datasets and models, an estimate of the costs of direct damage to buildings was produced. 15 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Figure 3: Residential, non-residential buildings and contents, and infrastructure exposure by province according to D-RAS modelling in USD million (2024). Following the development of the exposure model, the reported damage data was carefully collated and cross-checked across multiple sources (see Annex A). Various metrics that indicate damage or impacts were collected and monitored over time until they stabilized; however, on the ground assessments were still only partially complete when the GRADE assessment was completed. Aerial and satellite imagery, social media posts, as well as freely available walk-by, drive-through, and drone videos, which provide snapshots of damage for specific areas, were used as checks for various locations throughout Port Vila and the surrounding area. The hazard analysis was challenging given the lack of seismometer data from close enough proximity to the epicenter and Port Vila. An estimated shaking map was produced on the basis of a fault solution and ground motion prediction equations, translated into intensity. The ShakeMap allowed for representative ground motions to be produced for each location. Due to the proximity of seismometer data or lack 16 _____________________________________________________________________________________ thereof, this method alone is not able to accurately estimate the damages as a standalone, thus calibration in the form of damage survey data was needed, as provided by on-the-ground studies. The estimate of damages was completed using a combination of the exposure, observed damage levels, structural vulnerability data, and unit costs of construction for the residential, non-residential and infrastructure sectors. Extensive calibration of this estimate was then completed, including through checks against reported data, social media, and historical event reports from Vanuatu and similar contexts. An overview of the datasets used in this GRADE assessment are shown in Annex A. 3.0 Results This was the most damaging and lethal earthquake in Vanuatu’s recent history. Table 3 presents the best estimate of total direct economic damages to physical assets in Vanuatu by sector caused by the December 17, 2024, earthquake. Total damages are substantial, at an estimated USD 197 million, equivalent approximately to 17 percent of the 2023 GDP. Overall, building and contents damage accounted for more than two-thirds of the total damage. Residential damage is estimated to be USD 49.9 million including structural damage and damage to contents. Non-residential damage, including social infrastructure, public buildings, industrial and commercial assets, is estimated at USD 86.2 million including damage to resorts, residential buildings used as tourist accommodation, and related infrastructure. Infrastructure damage is estimated at USD 52.3 million. Key sectors included were power networks, telecommunications assets, water networks, coastal infrastructure, fisheries-related infrastructure, and transport networks including airports, seaports, and roads. Agricultural damage is estimated to be USD 8.7 million, which relates primarily to damage to agricultural assets, buildings, and infrastructure. Table 3: Summary of estimated damages by sector in Vanuatu. Estimated Proportion of Sector Definition damage total damage (USD millions) Residential Houses and contents $49.9 25% Non- Commercial, industrial, public and mixed-use $86.2 44% Residential buildings and contents Power networks, water networks, Infrastructure telecoms, seaports, jetties, coastal structures, $52.3 27% airports, roads, bridges, fisheries Agricultural buildings, assets and related Agriculture $8.7 4% infrastructure $197.0 Total (17% of 2023 GDP15) 15 World Bank Group, Data Bank. 17 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Figure 4 and Figure 5 give the damage statistics by province and sector. The damage is concentrated in Shefa province, closest to the earthquake epicenter. Figure 4: Total damage estimated by province in USD millions. 18 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Figure 5: Sectoral damage maps by location in USD millions. 19 _____________________________________________________________________________________ 4.0 Implications of results The December 17, 2024, Vanuatu earthquake was a significant event in the country’s recent history . The quality of data on reported impacts from previous events varies and no substantial data on the costs of damage are available. Table 4 summarizes the reported impacts from damaging earthquakes in Vanuatu since 1965, and Annex B gives more detailed reports on each event, where available. Note that no data does not represent a zero; instead, it may mean that no reports were found. The present M w 7.3 event is the largest earthquake in Vanuatu since December 2010, and it is the most damaging and lethal event in the country since at least 1965. The epicenter of this earthquake was in close proximity to a high concentration of the country’s exposure. This is a key driver of the economic damages estimated by GRADE, although many other factors contribute to the scale of damages too, including the depth of the earthquake; the characteristics of ground shaking; the location, direction, and quality of construction of buildings and infrastructure; and whether a tsunami is generated. Three Mw 7 or larger events have occurred in the vicinity of Efate Island (Vanuatu’s most populous island) since 2000, including the December 17, 2024 event. Figure 6 shows the spatial distribution of earthquakes with a moment magnitude greater than 7.0 since 1965, where it can be seen that a higher count of events has occurred in the northern half of Vanuatu over the last 60 years, while in more recent decades, large earthquakes have been recorded in the southern half of Vanuatu. Table 4: Summary of damaging earthquakes in Vanuatu since 1965 Date Location Moment Recorded Recorded Houses Additional information (Local) magnitude deaths injuries damaged (Mw) (#) (#) (#) August 11, Malakula 7.6 - - 51 - 100 Multiple large earthquakes 1965 between Aug. 11 and 13 caused damage to buildings and a wharf, as well as embankment collapses, material damage, landslides, and ground fissures on the islands of Malekula and Espiritu Santo. October Espiritu 7.1 1 51 - 100 - At Luganville there was 27, 1971 Santo, Port significant damage in the Vila lower part of the town that is built on fill. July 27, Espiritu 7.2 - 2 101–1,000 Two injuries and many 1990 Santo damaged buildings. July 13, Malekula 6.7 - - - Damage to educational 1994 facilities on Malekula Island. November Pentecost 7.5 10 (5 40 1,000 Tsunami destroyed the 27, 1999 Island tsunami) village of Baie Martelli. 20 _____________________________________________________________________________________ January 3, Port Vila, 7.2 - 51 - 100 51 - 100 Major damage to buildings, 2002 Efate bridges, and essential Island infrastructure. November Merelava, 5.9 - 3 100 Landslides damaged roads, 27, 2002 Torba wells, and gardens. Province August 1, Luganville, 7.2 - 1 1 - 50 Minor damage to buildings 2007 Espiritu and roads. Santo Island May 29, Tongoa 5.7 - 10 51 - 100 Damage to health centers, 2009 Island schools, and roads. June 2, Tongoa 6.3 - 4 - Some buildings damaged, 2009 Island utilities disrupted, and landslides. August 11, 33 km NW 7.3 - - - In Port Vila, minor to 2010 of Port Vila moderate damage due to shaking and a 23 cm tsunami recorded. December West of 7.3 - 4 - Local tsunami generated. 25, 2010 Isangel, Tanna February Northeast 6.4 - - 1 - 50 Landslides and road 19, 2015 Paama damage. December Ambrym 5.4 - - 1 - 50 Earthquakes triggered by 15, 2018 Island volcanic eruption. March 3, West of 6.5 - - - Coincided with Cyclone 2023 Espiritu Kevin, no major impacts Santo reported. Island 21 _____________________________________________________________________________________ KEY 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s December 17, 2024, event Figure 6: Map of Mw>7.0 earthquake in the vicinity of Vanuatu by age in 1965. Source: USGS and Google Earth. To date, the characteristics of the ground shaking caused by the earthquake are not well understood as there is very little seismometer data available from nearby stations. It is therefore very hard to determine 22 _____________________________________________________________________________________ the characteristics of shaking that was experienced in Port Vila and the wider Shefa province. This usually would help in the modelling of damage to buildings and infrastructure; however, this has not been possible in this GRADE assessment. Instead, other methodologies were used to determine estimations (see section 3). Despite this, a few key patterns of damage were observed. First, a small number of larger, multistory, older buildings of concrete frame (some with masonry infill) suffered catastrophic failures in Port Vila’s central business district. A similar pattern was also observed in the January 3, 2002, earthquake in Port Vila. Typical seismic damage and modes of structural failure were observed, including short column failures, X-cracks, pounding, soft stories, and structural connection failures. Engineering assessments are underway or planned for some of these failed buildings which will provide better insights into the causes of failure. Damage to housing is still being assessed. Residential damage surveys are ongoing with initial reports noting instances of complete failures of house structures, and some lesser grades of damage. Few photographs and reports of housing damage were publicly available at the time of the GRADE analysis which caused challenges during the GRADE assessment. Initial Copernicus Emergency Mapping System (EMS) assessments judged residential damages in Port Vila to include three buildings destroyed, 23 damaged, and 63 possibly damaged out of a total of 376 residential buildings assessed. Latest figures from the NDMO reported 10 houses fully destroyed, 35 severely damaged, 50 moderately damaged and 116 lightly damaged, with no information on the location of these houses. Reconstruction costs are expected to be higher than the current estimated damages. Further, the reconstructions cost implications would be proportionately higher for non-residential than residential buildings, due to the possibility of upgrades and “build back better” practices. Estimates of direct damage presented in this report do not include costs associated with humanitarian and emergency response, or the losses associated with economic flows (e.g., business interruption). Moreover, assessments of damage are still ongoing across many sectors. These estimates also do not consider uncertainty due to factors such as increased costs of materials, and potentially labor, commonly experienced in Small Island Development States (SIDS) after disasters. Based on global experience, recovery and reconstruction costs will be much larger, potentially greater than twice the estimate, and GDP losses associated with economic disruptions will also add to the cost of the earthquakes. Although GRADE assessments do not assess economic losses from disasters, the economic losses for this event are likely to be significant. Two notable impacts of the earthquake will amplify the losses. Firstly, the main seaport has been closed for a significant period of time (it is still yet to reopen as of December 25, 2024)16 which will heavily impact trade flows negatively and cause business interruptions. Secondly, the closure of the central business district in Port Vila while engineering assessments were carried out in the run up to Christmas will have impacted businesses, with shoppers having to go elsewhere. Improvements to seismic resilience need to be prioritized by learning lessons from this event. As always with earthquake risk, resilience can be improved through the enhancement of building codes and regulations. Work is ongoing to update the VNBC to incorporate more recent improvements and understanding from the field of earthquake and wind engineering. Adherence to building codes is another major challenge faced in developing countries, which can be improved by governance and policy 16 The GRADE estimations are assessed up to December 25, 2024, however at the time of writing (January 9, 2025) the road is yet to be reopened. 23 _____________________________________________________________________________________ improvements. Finally, key sectors such as healthcare and transport may require detailed resilience assessments and strengthening, since urban and rural healthcare systems seem to have struggled in the immediate aftermath of the event and transport assets have suffered prolonged service disruption. In Vanuatu, women are likely to face significant vulnerabilities in the aftermath of disasters , and although GRADE only estimates the damages to physical assets in key sectors, the impacts go beyond. These impacts can be amplified by factors such as pre-existing gender inequalities. In Vanuatu, the ratio of female to male labor force participation rate is 77 percent17 and traditional gender roles often restrict women’s coping strategies. Due to gender gaps in access to finance, land, and decision-making, women also continue to bear a disproportionate burden during disasters, being responsible for childcare, resource collection, food security and household protection as seen in gender assessments conducted following Tropical Cyclone Harold in 2020.18 Further to the gender considerations, disasters do not impact people equally; marginalized and vulnerable populations often suffer disproportionately . Vulnerable groups lack the resources necessary to prepare for, respond to, and recover from disasters, exacerbating pre-existing inequalities. To better understand the potential distributional impacts of the earthquake on households with different demographic and socioeconomic profiles in Vanuatu, a data-driven and model-based approach, utilizing the micro-simulation model Unbreakable19 was used as part of this assessment. The model integrates household-level data for Shefa province from the 2019 national household survey from the global micro database with exposure models and disaster damage data. Poorer, less-educated, rural, and larger households face the most severe relative consumption losses, highlighting their heightened vulnerability (Figure 7). While the model results suggest that, on average across Shefa province, households would lose 24 percent20 of their annual consumption, further analysis reveals significant socioeconomic disparities in the earthquake's impact. In particular, poor households face approximately 65 percent consumption loss difference, rural households 33 percent, and the households with primary-level education will lose approximately 19 percent. In contrast, households with secondary or tertiary education, as well as those in urban areas, are expected to experience considerably lower impacts. The earthquake has the potential to push over 2,150 individuals in Shefa province into poverty-ranging from as few as 391 to as many as 5,500. Furthermore, some affected families may remain in poverty for a decade or longer. Given this, it is important that the needs of vulnerable groups are considered in response, reconstruction and recovery planning. 17 World Bank, World Development Indicators database. Estimates are based on data obtained from international Labour Organization, ILOSTAT as https://ilostat.ilo.org/data/ 18 Tropical Cyclone Harold Rapid Gender Analysis. Care International, 2020. 19 Hallegatte, S., Vogt-Schilb, A., Bangalore, M., & Rozenberg, J. (2016). Unbreakable: building the resilience of the poor in the face of natural disasters. World Bank Publications. 20 Due to uncertainties surrounding these model estimates, the value of this indicator varies from 20 percent to 27 percent. 24 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Figure 7: Mean relative difference in annual average consumption loss per capita (%) by household type. N.B. A positive value indicates that the household groups would experience larger impacts compared to an average household. 5.0 Conclusions This GRADE report provided a synopsis of the direct economic impacts to physical assets of the December 17, 2024, earthquake in Vanuatu. Damage was concentrated in Port Vila, where ground shaking caused landslides, the failure of multiple buildings, and damage to infrastructure and buildings. This was the most damaging and lethal earthquake in Vanuatu’s recent history. Total direct economic damages to physical assets are estimated to be USD 197 million or approximately 17 percent of Vanuatu’s 2023 GDP, including residential buildings and their contents, non-residential buildings and their contents, infrastructure, and agricultural assets. In total, damage to buildings and their contents accounts for over 69 percent of the total damage. The residential sector is estimated to have sustained USD 49.9 million in damage, while non-residential buildings sustained USD 86.2 million in damages. Infrastructure accounts for an estimated USD 52.3 million in damage, and damage to agriculture is relatively small at USD 8.7 million. However, the reconstruction costs associated with this disaster are likely to be greater than twice the estimated damages. Further, these costs will be proportionately higher for non-residential than residential buildings, due to the possibility of upgrades and “build back better” practices. The damage estimate also does not consider significant negative impact on trade flows and business interruption such as those affecting the tourism sector. 25 _____________________________________________________________________________________ The wider social and gender impacts of the event are concerning , including likely increases in inequality. Meanwhile, poor and vulnerable households are disproportionally impacted, which could exacerbate existing poverty. Increasing resilience to earthquakes would necessarily include improvements to building codes and adherence to them, strengthening the resilience of infrastructure systems and networks; and developing gender-sensitive and vulnerable group-focused adaptive social protection strategies. 26 _____________________________________________________________________________________ 6.0 References Benoit, M. and Dubois, J. (1971). The Earthquake Swarm in the New Hebrides Archipelago, August 1965. Recent Crustal Movements, Royal Society of New Zealand, Vol. 9. Gunasekera, et al. 2018. Methodology Note on the Global RApid post-disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) approach. World Bank, Washington DC. https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/ publication/DRAS_web_04172018.pdf Gunasekera et al., 2023. The GRADE methodology: New frontier in rapid post-disaster damage estimation for the developing countries. SECED conference, Cambridge. https://seced.org.uk/index.php/seced-2023- proceedings/66-earthquake-disaster-risk-reduction-reconnaissance-and-recovery/817-the-grade- methodology-new-frontier-in-rapid-post-disaster-damage-estimation-for-the-developing-countries Jackson, G., McNamar, K. and Witt, B. (2017) A framework for disaster vulnerability in a small island in the southwest pacific: A case study of Emae Island, Vanuatu. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-017-0145- 6. Louat, L. and Baldassari, C. (1989). Chronologie des séismes et des tsunamis ressentis dans la región Vanuatu - Nouvelle Calédonie (1729-1989). Rapports Scientifiques et Techniques Sciences de la Terre Geophysique. No. 1. Institut Francais de Recherche Scientifique pour le Developpement en Cooperation, Centre de Nouméa. Ratuva, S. (2010) Back to basics: Towards integrated social protection for vulnerable groups in Vanuatu. Pacific Economic Bulletin 25(3):40-63 2010. Roger, J. and Pelletier, B. (2023). A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc. Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences, Discussions. 28 pp. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-198 Rothé, J.P. (1969). The seismicity of the Earth 1953-1965. UNESCO, Paris. Rothé, J.P. (1973). Annual Summary of Information on Natural Disasters, 1971. UNESCO, Paris. Shorten, G.G. (2002). Preliminary Report Earthquake and Tsunami Damage Assessment in Port Vila, SOPAC, January 2002, 10 pp. United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women). (n.d.). Gender and disaster risk reduction in the Pacific. Retrieved from https://genderdata.worldbank.org USGS (2024) M 7.3 - 30 km W of Port-Vila, Vanuatu. United States Geological Survey, Reston, UISA. Available at: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000nzf3/finite-fault Warrick, O. C. (2011). Local Voices, Local Choices? Vulnerability to Climate Change and Community- Based Adaptation in Rural Vanuatu (Thesis, Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)). University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand. Retrieved from https://hdl.handle.net/10289/5828Feeny et al. (2013) World Bank. (2023). World Development Indicators: Gender Data Portal - Vanuatu. Retrieved from https://genderdata.worldbank.org/en/economies/vanuatu 27 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Annex A: Data sources Datasets used include:  OCHA and DG-ECHO situation reports.  QFES Survey (QFD Damage Assessment Dashboard – Public).  Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office Reports.  Local media publications, including the Daily Post.  Drone imagery from NZ (Landslide Visuals, Embassy, Private Homes, Commercial Buildings, Road Damage, Port Vila etc.).  ReliefWeb and humanitarian organizations (global and local) updates.  UNOSAT, Copernicus, Sentinel and other remote sensing imagery.  Local and international news reports.  Social media reports from X, Facebook and other sources and corroboration of photo data.  Unit Costs of Construction (UCC) from Building Permit statistics and SPC in 2023.  Building and population data and projections.  2020 Vanuatu Population and Housing Census.  Physical Planning Unit data (building attributes, enumeration districts, hotels and other public buildings).  Economic reporting from the government of Vanuatu.  World Bank’s data, including economic data and development indicators for Vanuatu.  Past GRADEs, PDNAs and disaster reporting in Vanuatu and the Pacific region.  PCRAFI datasets and disaster reporting.  Project datasets including Land Cover 2014.  Agriculture data from 2015-2022 from government of Vanuatu with FAO data.  Infrastructure data from OSM and other global products.  Capital stock estimates using budget and capital investment data.  Seismic station data and USGS datasets and hazard model outputs. 28 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Annex B: Historical earthquake event descriptions Houses Magnit. Depth Deaths Injuries Homeless Affected Houses Date (Local) Location (Mw) Destroyed Notes and Comments (km) (#) (#) (#) (#) Damaged (#) (#) - A series of shocks on the New Hebrides Islands, on August 11, 1965, at 03:40, 19:52 and 22:31 UTC and one main aftershock on August 13 at 12:40 UTC. In total 62 earthquakes were recorded from August 11 to 13, the moment magnitudes of many of which have been re- evaluated by the USGS. The two strongest earthquakes (at 03:40 UTC & Mw 7.6 at 22:31 UTC) caused collapses, material damage, landslides and ground fissures on the islands of Malekula & Espiritu Santo. Collapse of the wharf at Port-Sandwich and of the Quai Gubbay embankment at Luganville. In many places, e.g. at Luganville, Norsup, Sarmetta, Lakatoro and Lamap, buildings were seriously damaged, water conduits broken and telephone lines cut. The north-western part of Malekula Island rose 0.5- 1 m (evident along 100 km of the coastline). Malakula, From the time the shocks began and before the August 121 to 13, 1965 Espiritu 7.6 33 - - - - - 51 - 100 main shock, tsunami warnings were given by Santo radio by the staff of the seismological station at Port Vila; these warnings were heeded by the people living on the shores of the threatened islands, and no casualties occurred (Rothé, 1969). A tsunami arose after the mainshock with a height of 7 m in some bays. The height of this tsunami was 2.4 m on Tongoa Island and 1.2 m at Port Vila. On August 13 a Mw7.3 aftershock gave rise to a tsunami 2 m in height, which resulted in the loss of 7 small ships on the west of Espiritu Santo, and destruction of coastal installations (Benoit and Dubois, 1971). There is doubt about the reports of a tsunami generated by the main shock (Mw7.6). Benoit and Dubois (1971) say that no tsunami was generated by the August 11 earthquakes. A report of the French Administration provided a detailed assessment of the damages suffered by the administration's buildings, totaling USD 142,400 (1965 values). 29 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Houses Magnit. Depth Deaths Injuries Homeless Affected Houses Date (Local) Location (Mw) Destroyed Notes and Comments (km) (#) (#) (#) (#) Damaged (#) (#) - A man in Shark Bay was killed by a rock falling from a cliff, and a little girl, aged four had a head injury from a falling object while asleep in the outbuildings of a store in Luganville. Fifteen other people presented to the treatment room of the French hospital in Santo. Felt with intensity VI at Lamap (Malekula Island) and III at Port Vila and on Banks Island (Rothé, 1973). At Luganville, intensity VII was observed in the Espiritu 51 - lower part of the town built on fill, while in the October 27, 1971 Santo 7.1 40 1 - - - 100 upper part of the town, built on bedrock the (Luganville) maximum observed intensity was V. Destruction of a commercial building, shifting by 1 meter of a bridge (single span Sarakata metal bridge, west of Luganville), the bridge over the Renee River strongly shaken on its pillars whose foundations were damaged, cracks in some houses, ruptured water mains and water supply interruption for few days, 100 telephone lines cut due to damage to the aerial cables. - 37 km ENE of Luganville; two people injured Espiritu July 27, 1990 7.2 126 - 2 - - - 101 – 1,000 and many buildings damaged on Espiritu Santo Santo Island. - Damage to educational facilities on Malakula July 13, 1994 Malakula 6.7 33 - - - - - - Island. - Epicenter between Pentecost and Ambrym islands and some 20 km south of Pentecost. On the relatively undeveloped Pentecost Island (population ~ 12,000) an estimated 90% of permanent concrete buildings suffered structural damage and 30% of local houses fallen down. Five deaths due to tsunami. Boulders and landslides cut off the dirt track linking the scattered population. Communication via the Pentecost November 27, 1999 7.5 33 10 100 2,000 - 101 – 1,000 >1,000 small number of telephones on the island was Island difficult. Five dead in a collapsed building in the central part of the island (Ena Village). More than 100 people were injured and the most seriously injured were flown to hospitals in Port Vila and on neighboring islands for treatment. On Paama Island, the earthquake destroyed 92 houses and affected almost all households. - The 30-foot tsunami killed 3 people, injured scores of people and sunk a 50-ton ship. 30 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Houses Magnit. Depth Deaths Injuries Homeless Affected Houses Date (Local) Location (Mw) Destroyed Notes and Comments (km) (#) (#) (#) (#) Damaged (#) (#) Destroyed the village of Baie Martelli (population 300), flattening all low-lying structures including the brick schoolhouse, leaving only the church still standing. - Loss of life due to tsunami mitigated because villagers were well aware of tsunami risk. - Minor damage in Malekula and Epi Islands. - Occurred at 04:22 am (local time). Several people injured. Major damage to buildings and infrastructure such as numerous schools, as well as factories and shops that were deemed unsafe. The Ministry of Education was relocated to another building as the engineers confirmed that its building is no longer safe to use. The nearby Lycée Bougainville was also in unsafe condition due to serious structural damage. The 3-storey Au Bon Marché supermarket was badly damaged. The building housing the Australian and British High Commissions suffered large cracks in piers on the eastern side, as well as significant distress in internal infill walls. A large number of buildings suffered minor structural damage, including shearing of infill walls and window breakage. Movement of the sea wall led Port Vila, 51 - to some permanent deformation to seaward January 3, 2002 Efate 7.2 21 - - 500 - 51 - 100 100 and subsidence of the foreshore in reclaimed Island areas around the Central Business District (SOPAC Damage Assessment report on Jan. 22, 2002). - Teuma bridge, which links the southern coast of Efate to the capital, had significant structural damage and three bridges linking Port Vila to North Efate - including the vulnerable low-lying communities near Mele Bay - were seriously damaged (Mele bridge (which had been just repaired following damage caused by a tropical cyclone), Prima bridge and La Colle bridge). - Landslides blocked the road to the main wharf, buried a steep road in Klems Hill area and also damaged some crops. - Supplies of power, water and telecommu- nications were interrupted. 31 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Houses Magnit. Depth Deaths Injuries Homeless Affected Houses Date (Local) Location (Mw) Destroyed Notes and Comments (km) (#) (#) (#) (#) Damaged (#) (#) - A tsunami was registered on the tide gauge as having a crest to trough amplitude of 0.8 m at the Port-Vila port (local eyewitness accounts in different parts of the harbor put the maximum effect at around 3.0 m). It occurred during low tide and was not damaging. -Damaged 100 buildings including three churches and the three primary schools in the Mere Lava Island (a small island with a population of 1,143 in 5 villages in the South Banks Group), where only 3 people suffered Mere Lava minor injuries. Island, - 23 out of 29 of the underground wells, surface November 27, 2002 5.9 33 - 3 - 503 - 100 Torba water catchment works and households’ storage Province tanks were damaged or destroyed. - Landslide debris blocked the one road that links the five villages in the island. - Landslides also caused damage on gardening areas, with the main staples being taro, manioc and banana. Luganville, - Some buildings, most of the shops damaged Espiritu (VII) at Luganville, where a policeman suffered Santo injuries while evacuating police headquarters. August 1, 2007 7.2 120 - 1 - - 1 - 50 1 - 50 Island, - Power outages also occurred at Luganville. Sanma Slight damages to the main wharf and to the Province main bridge in Luganville. - 10 people injured, several roads damaged, water utilities disrupted and landslides on Tongoa Island. Damage to provincial government offices, schools, houses, health, and religious infrastructures. Tongoa May 29, 2009 5.7 13 - 10 - - 51 - 100 51 - 100 - Damages to the Silimauri Health Centre Island included cracks in the underground well, destruction of the staff house, damages in the toilet, ground collapse, and fiberglass tank damages. Many drugs were also damaged and destroyed. 32 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Houses Magnit. Depth Deaths Injuries Homeless Affected Houses Date (Local) Location (Mw) Destroyed Notes and Comments (km) (#) (#) (#) (#) Damaged (#) (#) - 75% of cemented ground wells were broken posing a threat to safe water supply - Damaged roads might affect assessment and distribution of aid and supplies. - Four people injured, some buildings damaged, Tongoa June 2, 2009 6.3 15 - 4 - - - - utilities disrupted and landslides occurred on Island Tongoa Island. - Felt with intensity VII in Port Vila, where a 23 cm tsunami (center-to-peak) was also recorded. - The four-story office building housing the New Zealand High Commission suffered some 33 km NW damage (office shelves and ceiling tiles fell down August 11, 2010 of Port 7.3 25 - few - - - - and computers were thrown across). Vila - Telephone lines in Port Vila were cut by the quake, and there were several power outages; - There was considerable panic as many people left the center of town and went to higher ground, fearing a tsunami. - Generated a local tsunami that struck most of 145 km W the western coastline of Tanna Island. No fatality December 25, 2010 of Isangel, 7.3 16 - 4 - - - - occurred; 4 people were injured, 3 boats were Tanna displaced, 1 boat sank and few canoes displaced. - Occurred at 00:18 local time. The seismic effects include landslide/rockfall/deep cracks on road/gardens uphill, few rainwater catchment wells cracked, few houses sustain structural damage. - A local tsunami struck the northern part of Paama Island. There was no tsunami warning. The tsunami event involves 3 waves Northeast (eyewitnesses); the first after c. 10-12 minutes Paama after mainshock, the second wave is much February 19, 2015 and off 6.4 10 - - - - - 1 - 50 bigger than first wave after c. 8-10 minutes after north of 1st wave and the last wave after c. 10 minutes Lopevi later. Tsunami runup heights, inundation heights and distances are high on the Northwest of the island, from Tavie to Liro Nessa. A tsunami flow depth of up to 2.0 m and a runup height of at least 6.0 m were measured. Inundation distances of up to 120 m were observed on Northwest Paama. The tsunami struck at a time of abnormally very low tide conditions; lowest tide for the month of February 2015. 33 _____________________________________________________________________________________ Houses Magnit. Depth Deaths Injuries Homeless Affected Houses Date (Local) Location (Mw) Destroyed Notes and Comments (km) (#) (#) (#) (#) Damaged (#) (#) - Volcanic eruption, from eruptive vents of Benbow and Marum craters, triggered various earthquakes of up to magnitude 5.4. Earthquake activity has caused cracks on Ambrym buildings and land in some areas, especially in December 15, 2018 5.4 11 - - - - - 1 - 50 Island the Southeast Ambrym area. Roads, water supplies, buildings and gardens have been damaged. Some houses collapsed. The entire 159 Pamel community members in Southeast Ambrym were relocated. West of - Coincidentally as Cyclone Kevin was damaging Espiritu Vanuatu, MMI of VI on the western shores of the March 3, 2023 6.5 17 - - - - - - Santo island, indicating strong shaking but no major Island damage impacts were reported. 34 _____________________________________________________________________________________ About GRADE GRADE reports provide an estimate of the costs associated with the economic damage to physical assets of housing, public buildings, non-residential buildings, agriculture, and critical infrastructure using a methodology that considers the disaster’s three components: hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. To conduct GRADE reports, the World Bank’s D-RAS team compiles physical damage information by employing hazard and engineering modelling, checks the information carefully against observations and historical precedent, and presents the data, figures, and estimated costs in the first weeks after a major disaster such as cyclones, earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, typhoons, and conflicts. GRADE reports continue to provide a useful initial estimate of the damages and economic impact and help contribute and complement additional damage and loss assessments conducted, which all are key to plan and design disaster recovery and reconstruction. To date, the D-RAS team has conducted more than 65 GRADE assessments. So far, on average, GRADE’s estimated overall damages are above 80 percent accurate relative to the detailed, on the ground assessments that follow in the weeks and months after a disaster. 35