DECEMBER 2023 2023/129 A KNOWLEDGE NOTE SERIES FOR THE ENERGY & EXTRACTIVES GLOBAL PRACTICE Capacity of Colombia’s power distribution networks to accommodate electric vehicles The bottom line. Transport must be decarbonized if climate commitments are to be met. Colombia is a leader in the adoption of electric vehicles in Latin America. However, the growth of the EV market can create operational and planning challenges for the power grid. Fortunately, recent analyses show that Colombia’s distribution grids have the capacity to accommodate the increased power demand created by electric vehicles in the short and medium terms, paving the way for achievement of climate targets. The results of simulations suggest that network operators can plan effectively for the future by considering the growing penetration of EVs in the design of new grids. Can Colombia’s power distribution networks the capacity of the country’s distribution networks to meet accommodate growing demand from the growing demand associated with electric mobility. The electric vehicles? resulting report was completed in late 2022 (World Bank 2022). The country’s national planning department requested World Bank support to find out In the first phase of the evaluation, four scenarios were The World Bank has been providing technical advice and defined to project the growth of EVs in the country and the expertise to help Colombia and its National Planning associated demand for electricity from the power grid. In the Department advance the country’s energy transition. The second part, with the support of four representative electric- objective of the technical assistance involves support for ity network operators (NOs), a spatial and temporal model digitalizing and decentralizing the demand for electricity was developed to identify the demand increase on specific while also making demand more efficient. In the context electrical circuits associated with growing EV penetration. of this effort, the National Planning Department assessed Based on these projections, impact assessments were car- ried out to gauge the impact of demand for EV charging sys- tems on the selected power grids. Finally, recommendations were made to meet future needs for electrical infrastructure. Claudia Vasquez Suarez is a lead energy specialist in the Energy and Extractives Unit at The four EV penetration scenarios are described below and the World Bank. illustrated in figure 1. Authors Roberto Estevez is an energy specialist in the same unit. Supported by Arcenio Torres is general manager of USAENE, an energy consulting company in Bogota, Colombia. 2 Capacity of Colombia’s power distribution networks to accommodate electric vehicles Figure 1. EV penetration in Colombia: four scenarios 1,000,000 Trucks under 10 tons 800,000 Buses Taxis Number of EVs 600.000 Light plug-in hybrid electric vehicles 400,000 Light battery electric vehicles 200,000 0 266 New Stakes Business as Usual Chile Scenario Scenario 266 is based on the COP21 emissions-reduction tar- For these scenarios, a load curve for EV charging was con- get (266 million tons by 2030) as well as the targets outlined structed based on usage habits, charging patterns, and the in the green growth plans of Colombia’s National Council of specifications of EVs sold in Colombia. The usage habits take Economic and Social Policy, which foresee 600,000 EVs in into account the start and end times of trips; the arrival time the country by 2030. of EVs at homes, work sites, parking lots and spaces (depend- ing on the EV segment); and the daily distance traveled. With The New Stakes Scenario (NS) is based on the 2020–50 this data, energy consumption can be estimated by using National Energy Plan, which sets higher EV penetration tar- the specifications of each EV segment. Charging patterns gets, reaching 600,000 light battery electric vehicles alone are determined based on EV power capacity, charging loca- by 2030. The policies aim to reduce GHG emissions and tions, and the estimated time needed to charge EVs accord- atmospheric pollutants as well as to meet the conditional ing to their specifications. Using this as a base, the energy target of the Paris Agreement, which would result in a 30 and power demand curve was generated. percent reduction of GHG emissions by 2030. As an example, in 2030 under Scenario 266, the energy The Business-as-Usual Scenario (BaU) is similar to Scenario demand curve for EVs in Bogota will resemble that presented 266 but takes into account the drop in EV sales in 2020 due in figure 2. to the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by a slow recovery in growth rates through 2023, when the scenario resumes with The demand for electric power peaks at 8 p.m. for light vehi- the growth rates projected in Scenario 266. cles, but if electric buses are taken into account, the peak hour shifts to 10 p.m (22:00). The Reference Country (Chile) Scenario is based on the tar- gets established in the Electric Mobility Study in Chile 2018, By combining the load curves with EV projections, the overall which foresees that 20 percent of the country’s fleet in all projection scenarios of peak power and energy consumed by sectors will be electric by 2050. EVs in Colombia can be determined (figure 3). Capacity of Colombia’s power distribution networks to accommodate electric vehicles 3 Figure 2. Power demand curve for EVs in Bogota in 2030 under one of the analyzed scenarios (Scenario 266) 160 140 120 100 Power (kW) 80 60 40 20 0 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Time Battery EVs at home Battery EVs at o ce Battery EVs, public charging Plug-in hybrids at home Plug-in hybrids at o ce Taxis Trucks under 10 tons Buses Motorcycles Figure 3. Comparison of peak power and EV demand, by scenario and year 266 New Stakes Business as Usual Chile 14,000 40,000 12,000 35,000 30,000 Peak power (MW) EV energy (GWh/year) 10,000 25,000 8,000 20,000 6,000 15,000 4,000 10,000 2,000 5,000 0 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 4 Capacity of Colombia’s power distribution networks to accommodate electric vehicles The additional power requirements for 2030 vary from a 500 To estimate spatial and temporal demand in these NOs, a to 4,000 MW peak, depending on the penetration scenario. representative sample of circuits was selected in collabora- In terms of energy, this range varies from 100 GWh/year to tion with the NOs, including a variety of EV load combina- 10,000 GWh/year for the same year (0.11 percent to 9.6 per- tions. For each circuit the following were analyzed: (i) four cent of projected demand for 2030, respectively). penetration scenarios: 266, NS, BaU, Chile; (ii) three periods of time: 2030, 2040, 2050; (iii) three types of days: week- days, Saturdays, holidays; and (iv) the 24 hours of the day, for For the EV penetration levels predicted a total of nearly 860 cases per circuit. in the scenarios considered, this study The impact of EV penetration on the networks was mea- concludes that no widespread impact on the sured for the three types of elements identified: medium distribution networks is expected in the short voltage (MV) line segments, links (connections between the MV circuits and the distribution circuit), and distribution cir- and medium term. However, it is possible cuit transformers. that specific problems may emerge in the What do the simulations suggest for networks, which operators would have to electricity distribution planning? address. Urgent action is not needed, but planning will help anticipate possible network constraints in the future How was EV load on power systems tested? For the EV penetration levels predicted in the scenarios considered, this study concludes that no widespread impact Demand simulations were generated using a spatial on the distribution networks is expected through 2050. No demand model major additional investments to the distribution networks Spatial demand is determined by (i) the types of users, such are needed over this period, above those needed to sup- as light vehicles, taxis, trucks, and public transportation; (ii) ply the natural growth of conventional demand. Variations transportation routes; (iii) parking locations; and (iv) electrical in average load of MV circuits owing to VE scenarios were charging requirements. observed in a range of less than 0.5 percent of the capacity, while in distribution center transformers the average load Colombia has 29 distribution network operators (NOs) increased by up to 1.5 percent. responsible for the planning, investment, operation, and maintenance of the local distribution and regional trans- However, it is possible that specific constraints may emerge mission systems.1 Among these, Bogota, Antioquia, and Valle in the networks, which operators would have to address. del Cauca have the largest number of users connected to Indeed, in some cases, components of the grid, such as the national system and were therefore among the NOs substations, were found to have high load levels, which may selected for analysis.2 require additional investments or the implementation of pro- active actions (such as variable rates) to limit charging power and disincentivize quick charging. 1. Local power distribution involves the lines, substations, and associated Additional analyses of extreme scenarios made it possible equipment operating at voltage levels 1, 2, and 3 and used to provide to identify the most sensitive network components given the commercial services. The regional transmission system consists of the assets characteristics of each distribution system and, therefore, to connecting NOs with the regional and national transmission system operat- devise potential alternatives for strengthening the networks ing at voltage level 4. accordingly. Different actions are called for in the face of 2. Bogota, Antioquia, and Valle del Cauca have 2,092,214 users, 1,747,341 specific constraints. users, and 1,059,168 users, respectively. Capacity of Colombia’s power distribution networks to accommodate electric vehicles 5 3 Saturation of power supply lines from substations. This The analysis of extreme scenarios situation indicates that the effect on the network could be significant since, over time, it would require a rein- makes it possible to identify the most forcement of the feeder circuit, thus affecting the entire sensitive network components in view of area—and even the MV substation itself if other circuits leaving the substation behaved in a similar way. the characteristics of each distribution system and, therefore, to devise potential 3 Saturation of sections of the MV line. This situation could make it necessary to schedule time-specific replacements alternatives for improving the networks. for the network as demand increased. 3 Saturation at the level of the distribution center. This 3 Preparing for impacts of changes in charging power type of saturation would require the replacement of the and deployment speeds. Such preparation involves affected transformer (or an increase of power through the evaluating the impact on the grid of the installation of addition of parallel transformers). increasingly powerful chargers and possibly adjusting the specifications of new residential buildings to improve Recommendations for distribution network planning access to the most cost-efficient EV charging systems. Based on the analysis above, NOs could take a wide variety of actions to plan for growing EV penetration: Recommendations for EV regulations It is recommended that regulators optimize the use of power 3 Incorporating EV penetration scenarios into planning infrastructure by taking the following actions: exercises, especially in areas with the greatest poten- 3 Make use of time-based variable electricity rates (day, tial for new demand, so as to analyze critical points of constraint in distribution networks. This would allow week, year). Different types of variable rates (time-of-use NOs to make necessary adjustments to the network in tariffs) are useful when grid saturation occurs at certain response to demand increases stemming from greater EV times of the day, week, or year (IRENA 2019). The gen- penetration. eral concept is to apply high prices at times when the grid is expected to be saturated so as to disincentivize 3 Conducting continuous monitoring and analysis of both consumption at those times. It can be applied to both the natural growth of conventional demand and changes consumption for EV charging and conventional demand, in the unit consumption demands of EVs, reflecting the differentiating by type of consumer. type of vehicles and charging systems entering the mar- 3 Study options for enabling and stimulating differ- ket. This should include monitoring the addition of new electric charging points serving EVs in order to stay up to entiated measurement of EV loads. With respect to date on the concentration and pace of demand growth residential charging, a specific meter for measuring EV in their networks. charging would be necessary. This would represent an additional cost for NOs or users, and the allocation of that 3 Integrating updated communication protocols and cost should be analyzed. With respect to EV demand for management systems that make it possible to control EV power in public areas, Colombia’s Resolution CREG 171 of charging and discharging in support of grid operations. 2021 proposes two alternatives for differentiated mea- Although this would require a significant investment, via- surement of the electricity used for EV charging in con- ble business models are available. The use of night tariffs ventional service stations or bus charging yards (to make could help reduce or delay investments. it possible, if desired, to apply the discount established by Law 143 of 1994 and allow NOs to evaluate the impact this has on the grid). 6 Capacity of Colombia’s power distribution networks to accommodate electric vehicles 3 Enable vehicle-to-grid (V2G) business models. These In all, even though the growth of Colombia’s EV market, models allow energy to be injected into the grid by dis- which is a leader in Latin America, will create operational charging the energy stored in EV batteries. Where this and planning challenges for the power grid, the country’s option is pursued, “smart grids” are essential, as they distribution grids have the overall capacity to accommo- make it possible to properly manage V2G systems based date growing power demand in the short and medium term. on bidirectional converters. Because V2G requires greater Through adequate planning and regulation, the country can investment in infrastructure, it should be undertaken effectively prepare for a future with increasing penetration based on demand. There is currently no business model of EVs. that would lead EV owners to be interested in this tech- nology. Because vehicle batteries are a consumable good The authors acknowledge the contributions of USAENE (www. with a determined number of cycles, injecting energy usaene.com) and Tecnalia (www.tecnalia.com) to the technical into the grid reduces driving time over the battery’s use- assistance described in this brief. ful life. In addition, the purchase price of EVs would be higher if they were equipped with onboard bidirectional converters. References and sources Andemos. Informe sector automotor–vehículos BEV PHEV HEV. UPME. 2019. Plan Energetico Nacional (PEN) 2020- /andemos.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Informe- https:/ /www1.upme.gov.co/ 2050—Escenario 266. Bogotá. https:/ H%C3%ADbridos-y-Electricos-2020-6.pdf. DemandaEnergetica/PEN_documento_para_consulta.pdf. /www.dane. DANE. 2020. Proyecciones de población. https:/ World Bank. 2022. “Evaluación de la capacidad de hospedaje gov.co/files/investigaciones/poblacion/proyepobla06_20/ de vehículos eléctricos (VEs) de las redes de distribución para MProyeccionesMunicipalesedadsexo.pdf. atender las demandas generadas por la electromovilidad en Colombia.” USAENE S.A.S. 2022. IEA. 2020. Global EV Outlook 2020: Entering the Decade of /www. Electric Drive? International Energy Agency, Paris. https:/ XM. 2021. Indicador de demanda por regiones y por OR. iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020. /informeanual.xm.com.co/informe/pages/xm/20-de- https:/ manda-de-energia-por-regiones.html. IRENA. 2019. “Innovation landscape brief: Time-of-use tariffs.” International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. 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