AIR QUALITY ANALYSIS FOR BISHKEK PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures September 2023 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures September 2023 © 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information or liability concerning the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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Washington, DC: World Bank.” All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; email: pubrights@ worldbank.org. Cover photo: Collab Media, Shutterstock.com CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures i Table of contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iv 6. EMISSION REDUCTION MEASURES’ IMPACT ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . v ON PM2.5 CONCENTRATIONS IN BISHKEK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 6.1. Approach to assessing the impact of emission reduction measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40 1. PURPOSE OF THE ANALYSIS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 6.2. Short list of selected policies and measures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 6.2.1. Electricity and heat generation — fuel 2. BACKGROUND TO AIR POLLUTION IN BISHKEK. . . . . . . . 11 switching, modernization, and use of renewables. . . . . . . 41 2.1. General context . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 6.2.2. Residential combustion — insulation, fuel 2.2. Meteorology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 switching, electric heating, and use of heat pumps. . . . 41 2.3. Air quality data analysis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 6.2.3. Road transport — traffic management, dust 2.3.1. Air quality monitoring infrastructure in suppression, and emissions control. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Bishkek . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 6.2.4. Waste — reduction in waste burning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 2.3.2. Air quality trends in Bishkek . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 6.2.5. Greening — regional dust suppression. . . . . . . . . . . . 43 6.3. Results of the emission reduction measures 3. METHODOLOGY AND DATA USED. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 modeling. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3.1. Definition of the airshed’s boundaries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 6.4. Emission reduction measures: Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 3.2. Data resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 6.4.1. Electricity and heat generation — fuel 3.3. Data limitations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 switching, modernization, and use of renewables. . . . . . 45 3.4. Emissions calculations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 6.4.2. Residential combustion - insulation, fuel 3.4.1. Residential heating . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 switching, electric heating, and use of heat pumps. . . 45 3.4.2. Road transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 6.4.3. Road transport — traffic management, dust suppression, and emissions control. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 3.4.3. CHP plant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 6.4.4. Waste — reduction in waste burning. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 3.4.4. Industrial estates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 6.4.5. Greening — regional dust suppression. . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 3.4.5. Dumpsite . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 6.4.6. Co-benefits and trade-offs with CO2 3.4.6. Brick kilns. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 emission reductions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 3.4.7. Quarries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 3.4.8. Manas International Airport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 7. REVIEW OF AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT 3.5. Analysis of other sources of PM2.5 pollution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 SYSTEM (AQMS) IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 3.5.1. Urban dust . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 7.1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 3.5.2. Windblown dust. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 7.2. Findings from the assessment of the current 3.6. Approach to modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 AQMS in the Kyrgyz Republic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50 3.7. Consultation process. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 7.3. Recommended improvement activities and next steps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 4. PM2.5 EMISSION SOURCES ANALYSIS: RESULTS . . . . . . . 33 8. CONCLUSION AND THE WAY FORWARD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 5. PM2.5 MODELING ANALYSIS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 ANNEXES 5.1. PM2.5 dispersion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Annex 1. CO2 Co-Benefits from PM2.5 Emission 5.2. Comparison with air quality monitoring data. . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Reduction Measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 5.3. Source contributions to PM2.5 concentrations . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Annex 2. Black Carbon Emissions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 ii Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES Figure ES 1: Modeled average PM2.5 dispersion in Figure 16: Brick kilns’ location and imaging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Bishkek, by month. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Figure 17: Quarries’ location and imaging. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Figure ES 2: Source contributions to annual Figure 18: Hourly landings and take-offs at Manas average PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 International Airport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Figure 1: Location and topography of Bishkek. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Figure 19: 3D meteorological modeling with the Figure 2: Modeled hourly temperatures in Bishkek WRF model. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30 at 2 m height by month, 2018, % of hours in a month. . . . . . . . . 12 Figure 20: Schematic diagram of the CAMx Figure 3: Wind speeds in Bishkek, 2018, by hour, diurnal. . . . . 12 modeling system. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 Figure 4: Wind directions in Bishkek, 2018, annual Figure 21: Monthly variations in PM2.5 emissions in average, winter, summer. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Bishkek by sector . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Figure 5: Mixing height in Bishkek, by hour, diurnal. . . . . . . . 13 Figure 22: PM2.5 emissions map for Bishkek, 2018. . . . . . . . . . . 34 Figure 6: Locations of reference-grade air quality Figure 23: PM2.5 emissions map for Bishkek, 2018, monitoring stations in Bishkek. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 by month. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Figure 7: Location of Clarity Node sensors in Bishkek . . . . . . . 15 Figure 24: Modeled average PM2.5 dispersion Figure 8: PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek, average in Bishkek, by month . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 over 2020–2021, in µg/m3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 25: Modeled and monitored PM2.5 Figure 9: Schematic illustration of the study’s main concentrations in Bishkek. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 components. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Figure 26: Modeled source contributions to PM2.5 Figure 10: Bishkek’s airshed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 concentrations in Bishkek by month, in µg/m3. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Figure 11: District heating network and HoBs in Figure 27: Financial LCOH in SFHs in Bishkek. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Bishkek. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Figure 28: Economic LCOH in SFHs in Bishkek. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Figure 12: Road network in the Bishkek airshed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Figure 29: Ranking of heating options to replace Figure 13: CHP in Bishkek. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 coal in SFHs in Bishkek. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 Figure 14: Locations of the industrial estates in the Figure 30: AQ roles and responsibilities of the Bishkek airshed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 MNRETS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Figure 15: Bishkek dumpsite: location and satellite Figure A 1: Source contributions to CO2 emissions imaging . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 in Bishkek . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 LIST OF TABLES Table ES 1: The impact on PM 2.5 concentrations from Table 4: Key institutions outside of MNRETS the implementation of individual measures and the with responsibilities related to air quality benefit of CO2 emissions reduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 management. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Table ES 2: Key institutions responsible for air Table 5: Recommended priority activities to develop quality management and for air quality improvement the current AQMS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 measures’ implementation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Table 6: Key responsible institutions for the Table 1: Main data limitations and ways to address them . . 20 implementation of emission reduction measures. . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Table 2: PM 2.5 emissions estimates for Bishkek, 2018 . . . . . 33 Table A 1: Impact on CO2 emissions of modeled PM 2.5 Table 3: Impact on PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek from emission reduction measures. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 the implementation of individual policies and measures. . . 43 Table A 2: BC emissions estimates for Bishkek, 2018. . . . . . 62 LIST OF BOXES Box 1: Calculation of residential heating emissions. . . . . . . . . 23 Box 3: Costs of heating options to replace coal in Box 2: Road transport emissions calculations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 single-family buildings in Bishkek. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures iii Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a World Bank team led report’s preparation. by Kirtan Sahoo (Senior Climate Change Specialist), The team is deeply grateful to the colleagues from Tamara Babayan (Senior Energy Specialist), Aidai the United Nations Development Programme and the Bayalieva (Environmental Specialist) and Jiyoun United Nations Environment Programme for sharing Christina Chang (Environmental Specialist). The the results of their work, which provided the baseline team included Vasil Zlatev (Air Pollution Consultant), for the emissions inventory developed in this study. Sarath Guttikunda (Modeling Consultant), Chris The team would also like to thank the colleagues Dore (Emissions and Institutional Arrangements working on air quality in the Kyrgyz Republic at the Consultant), Larissa Duma (Urban Ecology and Asian Development Bank, Deutsche Gesellschaft Resilience Consultant), Myles Donncadha (Urban für Internationale Zusammenarbeit  (GIZ), the Greening Consultant), Yun Wu (Senior Energy International Organization for Migration, and the Specialist), Yae Jun Kim (Energy Specialist), Hazuki United Nations Children's Fund for their feedback Terada (Energy Specialist), Bekten Doolotov and support. (Energy Consultant), and Kunduz Adylbekova The team would also like to extend its gratitude to (Program Assistant). The report was financed by World Bank colleagues: Sameer Akbar (Senior the Korea Green Growth Trust Fund — a partnership Environmental Specialist), Elena Strukova Golub between the World Bank Group and the Republic of (Senior Environmental Economist), Manuel Jose Korea. Millan Sanchez (Senior Energy Specialist), Ernesto The team would like to thank the Ministry of Natural Sanchez-Triana (Lead Environment Specialist), Resources, Ecology and Technical Supervision of Harinath Appalarajugari (Senior Environmental the Kyrgyz Republic for its cooperation in facilitating Engineer), and Sandeep Kohli (Senior Energy stakeholders’ discussions and in the preparation of Specialist) for peer reviewing the report. this report. The team is grateful to the Agency on The report was prepared with support and Hydrometeorology under the Ministry of Emergency overall guidance from Kseniya Lvovsky (Lead Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic for its support in Environmental Economist, previously Practice providing air quality data and feedback throughout Manager), Sanjay Srivastava (Practice Manager), the study. The team would also like to thank Naveed Hassan Naqvi (Country Manager for Bishkek Mayor’s Office for its support with data and the Kyrgyz Republic), and Zhanetta Baidolotova information, without which this report would not (Operations Officer in the Kyrgyz Republic). Nigara have been possible. The team expresses its deep Abate prepared the report for publication and Linh gratitude to all organizations that participated in van Nguyen and Grace Aguilar provided project the stakeholders’ discussions in the course of the management support. iv Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Acronyms and Abbreviations A2W Air-to-Water IOM International Organization for Migration AQMS Air Quality Management System Agency on Hydrometeorology under KYRGYZ the Ministry of Emergency Situations BC Black Carbon HYDROMET of the Kyrgyz Republic Comprehensive Air Quality Model CAMx LCOH Levelized Cost of Heating with extensions LDV Light Duty Vehicle CHP Combined Heat and Power Ministry of Natural Resources, Convention on Long-Range MNRETS CLRTAP Ecology and Technical Supervision Transboundary Air Pollution Model for Ozone and Related DPF Diesel Particulate Filter MOZART/ Chemical Tracers/ Whole Atmosphere WACCM EE Energy Efficiency Community Climate Model EF Emission Factor OPEX Operational Expenditure EPA Environmental Protection Agency OSM Open Street Maps ESA European Space Agency PM Particulate Matter ESP Electrostatic Precipitator SFH Single Family House Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution SLCP Short-Lived Climate Pollutants GAINS Interactions and Synergies United Nations Development UNDP CAPEX Capital Expenditure Programme Global Burden of Disease-Major United Nations Environment GBD-MAPS UNEP Air Pollution Sources Programme GDP Gross Domestic Product United Nations Framework UNFCCC Convention on Climate Change GHG Greenhouse Gas UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund GHS Global Human Settlements W2W Water-to-Water GIS Geographic Information System HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle WHO World Health Organization HoB Heat-only-Boiler WRF Weather Research & Forecasting Signs and Units km2 square kilometer t Ton m/s meters per second t/yr ton per year MW Megawatt US$ United States dollar MWh Megawatt hour µg/m3 Microgram per cubic meter CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures v Executive Summary Objective of this study this report summarizes the key findings of the institutional review and provides details on This study aims to evaluate the air quality institutional responsibilities in Chapter 7. situation in Bishkek, focusing on PM 2.51 pollution, which has the largest impact on human health, and to provide support for the design of Assessing the air quality situation measures to improve air quality in the city. PM 2.5 in Bishkek concentrations in Bishkek substantially exceed The study uses the latest methodologies and international air quality standards—for instance, modeling approaches to assess air quality and the annual average PM 2.5 concentrations in Bishkek determine the contribution of different emission exceed over 10 times the guideline of the World sources to PM2.5 pollution in Bishkek. To support Health Organization (WHO) of 5 µ g/m . The annual 3 the assessment of emission reduction measures, health damages of PM 2.5 pollution in Bishkek are the various sources of PM2.5 emissions and their estimated to be equivalent to 1.2 percent of the contributions to ambient concentrations have Kyrgyz gross domestic product (GDP). been studied comprehensively. With the help of a detailed emission inventory, developed as part of the Existing information and studies on air quality study, and pollution modeling, pollution maps have in Bishkek are limited and at times present been produced, presenting spatial and temporal contradictory information regarding the main distributions of both emissions and ambient sources of air pollution in the city. This study concentrations. thus uses a scientific approach to identify the main sources of air pollution in Bishkek, estimate their The PM2.5 pollution modeling in Bishkek relative contributions to PM2.5 concentrations, model incorporates various inputs using both local data the dispersion of PM2.5 pollution across the Bishkek and data from global studies. PM2.5 emission maps (spatial distribution of emissions) are used as key airshed and assess the impact on PM2.5 concentrations inputs in the pollutant transport model. The pollutant of a range of emission reduction measures. The study’s transport model uses many other inputs, including results support the evidence base for the design of meteorological data, topographic data, land use measures to improve air quality in Bishkek. data, and chemical reactions of specific pollutants Air quality management is a complex and multi- of concern in the air to determine how the pollutants sectoral agenda, which requires a systems are spread across the city, leading to different approach and actions by many agencies and ambient levels at different locations in the city. As institutions in a country. A review of the air quality local data on some sectors, for instance, residential management system (AQMS) in the Kyrgyz Republic, heating, were limited, some assumptions had to be with a focus on institutional arrangements, has been made in line with existing studies. Naturally, data and conducted separately. For comprehensiveness, information limitations introduce some uncertainty 1 PM 2.5 stands for fine particulate matter with a diameter less than or equal to 2.5 microns (µ m). CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 1 in the modeling results, but they present a coherent The modeled PM2.5 dispersion in Bishkek’s airshed picture of the current situation and the overall trend. demonstrates that PM2.5 concentrations peak in the winter months with the highest concentrations The modeled PM2.5 concentrations match occurring in the northern parts of the city where well with the monitored PM2.5 concentrations, most of the single-family houses that use coal providing confidence in the robustness of the for heating are located. The modeling results study’s results despite some data limitations. demonstrate that concentrations in the city of Bishkek To validate the performance of the model, monthly are over the WHO’s annual average guideline (5 µg/ modeled concentrations were compared with the m3) and that even in the summer monthly average actual PM2.5 concentrations from the analyzed air concentrations are above 10 µg/m3 (see Figure quality monitoring data. The modeled concentrations ES 1). Therefore, to bring the annual PM2.5 average matched the monitored concentrations with a 94 concentration in Bishkek toward WHO guidelines, percent confidence level. Hence, the model results emissions reduction and mitigation measures should are considered to adequately replicate the actual air be implemented for a variety of sources to reduce pollution situation in Bishkek. PM2.5 concentrations in each month of the year. Figure ES 1: Modeled average PM2.5 dispersion in Bishkek, by month μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ R R R R R R R R R B B B B B B B B B μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ R R R R R R R R R B B B B B B B B B μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ R R R R R R R R R B B B B B B B B B μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ μ R R R R R R R R R B B B B B B B B B Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 2 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Residential heating, transport, and windblown The validated modeling system is used to make dust were estimated to contribute the most an initial assessment of the impacts of different to average annual PM2.5 concentrations, as air pollution reduction measures on PM2.5 depicted in Figure ES 2. The seasonal contributions concentrations in Bishkek. This was done by first of sources vary throughout the year due to, among estimating the change in emissions associated others, differences in sectoral activity levels (e.g. with specific measures, which was reflected in residential heating is only used in the winter), the emissions inventory, followed by running the meteorological and geographic features (e.g. dry pollutant transport model to determine the reduction periods in the summer, occurrence of dust storms in PM 2.5 concentrations across the city. Several in the summer). Residential heating has the highest model runs were carried out to assess the impacts of contribution to PM2.5 concentrations in the winter, a range of emission reduction measures and emission reaching nearly 40 percent in some winter months scenarios. The short list of measures and emission (for example, January and November). On the other scenarios that were considered and included in hand, windblown dust2 has the highest contribution the assessment were compiled by focusing on the to PM2.5 concentrations in the summer when PM2.5 largest emission sources and measures commonly concentrations are generally lower than in the winter. used in other cities, complemented by local and Transport is the second most important contributor to international expert opinion. While the focus was PM2.5 concentrations in all seasons—in the winter, it is on PM2.5, the study also estimated the potential second after residential heating, and in the summer, it reduction of CO2 emissions for the corresponding is second after windblown dust. scenarios. Key results Figure ES 2: Source contributions to annual average PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek Various emission reduction measures in five key sectors were modeled, and impacts were provided for the individual measures and for combinations of %z measures within a sector. Table ES 1 shows the percentage reduction in the Annual average PM2.5 average annual PM2.5 concentration in concentration 51.4 μg/m3 the Bishkek urban area that results from % complete implementation of different air pollution reduction measures, as well as the co-benefit in terms of CO2 emission reductions. The results are for 2018 but are expected to be indicative for the recent years, as the reductions Source: Original elaboration for this publication. are presented in percentage terms. 2 2 Windblown dust represents particles carried by wind into Bishkek from the adjoining areas such as agricultural and open fields, for instance. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 3 Table ES 1: The impact on PM2.5 concentrations from the implementation of individual measures and the benefit of CO2 emissions reduction Reduction in annual PM 2.5 Reduction in CO2 Sector Measure concentration (%) emissions (%) Combined heat and power (CHP) plant switch from 9 29 coal to gas  CHP and heat boilers All heat-only-boilers (HoBs) switch from coal to gas  2 1 30% more renewables in CHP and HoBs 4 11 Home insulation - low and high 2 3 0.5 1 Residential coal to gas - low and high 6 12 2 3 Residential Residential heat pumps - low and high 5 13 0.5 1 heatinga Residential more electric heating - low and high 5 9 -2 -4 Complete switch to clean heating 29 8 Traffic management 3 5 Road dust suppression  1 — Car emissions control - low and high 3 6 6 13 Marshrutka emissions control 1 1 Transport  Buses emissions control 0.2 0.3 Light duty vehicle (LDV)/heavy goods vehicle 3 4 (HGV) emissions control Total of all transport measures combined 13 22 Complete switch to zero-emission vehicles 27 51 Waste Control waste open burning  0.6 — burning No open waste burning, including dump 1 — Natural dust controls - low 1 — Greeningb Natural dust controls - high  2 — Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: a. Low and high scenarios refer to 20 percent and 40 percent, respectively, of houses using coal implementing energy efficiency (EE) measures or switching to cleaner heating. Additional electricity demand from the existing CHP was modeled for residential heating measures involving switching to electricity for heating (for example, heat pumps and heating with electric boilers/radiators). The CHP emissions depend on the fuel used to generate electricity. b. The greening measures are used as natural dust controls primarily affecting windblown dust. With the large reductions of PM2.5 concentrations most impactful or easiest policies in a source sector, that need to be achieved in Bishkek, implementing it appears evident that the strategy would need to measures across sectors can deliver the required achieve significant emission reductions across emission reductions. The modeled annual average multiple source sectors. Therefore, a successful concentration of PM2.5 for Bishkek is 51.4 µg/m3, air quality strategy for Bishkek would need to be whereas the WHO guideline is 5 µg/m3. Furthermore, ‘comprehensive’ in its scope. there is no one emissions source sector that could be targeted to deliver all of the PM2.5 emission The conducted modeling shows that the largest reductions that are required. While an air quality improvements in air quality in Bishkek can be strategy for Bishkek might propose implementing the achieved by substituting coal used for heating 4 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS in individual homes and HoBs with cleaner Review of the air quality management alternatives. Complete switch to clean heating in system in the Kyrgyz Republic households currently using coal would have the highest contribution to the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations. A separate study, titled ‘The Air Quality This scenario is therefore considered as the high- Management System in the Kyrgyz Republic: impact scenario. Within the different cleaner heating A Review of Institutional Arrangements’, was options considered, the modeled measure showing conducted in parallel to identify any gaps in the the largest impact on PM2.5 annual concentrations is current air quality management system (AQMS) replacing coal heating with heat pumps at the houses in the Kyrgyz Republic. The proper set-up of an that currently use coal for heating. AQMS is a key foundation for allowing efficient implementation of emission reduction measures Comprehensive road transport policies can have with the ultimate goal to improve public health a significant impact on air quality, while waste through reduced air pollution. While the detailed and greening policies offer multiple benefits recommendations for strengthening the AQMS in beyond air quality improvement. The impact of the Kyrgyz Republic can be found in its report, the road transport policies appears to be relatively small priority recommendations are as follows: if individual policies are considered separately. The transport measure with the highest impact on PM2.5 ി Formation of an Inter-Ministerial Air Quality Co- concentrations in Bishkek is the increased adoption ordination Committee and establishment of the of newer vehicles (Euro 5 standard and higher) appropriate governmental roles, responsibilities, replacing old, pre-Euro standard vehicles. However, if and structures are the immediate actions needed to the modeled transport emission reduction scenarios support an effective AQMS in the Kyrgyz Republic. were considered together, then the resulting impact ി The development of an air quality policy team, would be comparable to the high-impact scenario air quality standards and targets, an air quality in the residential sector. The impacts of emission communications strategy, and the capabilities reduction scenarios and associated policies in the relating to the air pollutant ambient monitoring waste and greening sectors are relatively small. network and the air pollutant emissions inventory Nevertheless, the benefits from greening policies and are urgently needed. measures and restrictions in open waste burning have multiple benefits beyond air quality improvement. ി The development of an air quality master plan for the Kyrgyz Republic and Bishkek, in particular, is All modeled measures, except the switch to also a priority in order to direct the overall air heating using electric boilers/radiators, show quality work at national and local levels. co-benefits of reducing CO2 emissions. Electric radiators are less efficient than heat pumps and Air pollution is caused by activities in a number therefore use more electricity, which is currently of sectors and therefore, formation of an inter- produced by burning coal in Bishkek’s CHP. If ministerial mechanism to efficiently coordinate the source of fuel at the CHP is changed to less actions across sectoral ministries will improve carbon-intensive fuels, then it is expected that even air quality governance. The Ministry of Natural this measure will have co-benefits of greenhouse Resources, Ecology and Technical Supervision gas (GHG) emission reduction. In addition, PM2.5 (MNRETS) is the primary institution responsible for emission reduction measures typically lead to black the overall AQMS in the Kyrgyz Republic. However, carbon (BC) emissions reduction as BC is a major there are various institutions outside of MNRETS component of PM2.5. that are responsible for activities impacting air CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 5 quality and for the implementation of the modeled institutions and suggests the main institutions that emission reduction measures. Table ES 2 outlines might be involved in the implementation of the the air quality-related responsibilities of key modeled emission reduction measures. Table ES 2: Key institutions responsible for air quality management and for air quality improvement measures’ implementation Responsibilities related to air Suggested role in measures’ Institution quality management implementation ി Overall responsibility for air quality policies and legislation; ി Overall strengthening of the AQMS; ി Ensuring compliance with environmental legislation; ി Establishing and chairing an Inter-ministerial Air Quality Coordination Committee; ി Environmental and technical Ministry ി Updating legislation related to setting emission supervision; of Natural limits and overall emission control in key sectors; Resources, ി Establishing emission limit values Ecology and for enterprises; ി Participating in the update of air quality standards; Technical ി Establishing air quality policy and technical ി Developing emission inventories Supervision (emissions inventory) teams; and source apportionment; ി Environmental monitoring ി Improving the technical infrastructure for air (air quality pollution source quality management (e.g. laboratories, emission monitoring); monitoring, etc.) ി Environmental assessment. Ministry of ി Development of air quality ി Participating in the update of air quality standards Health standards ി Developing the ambient air quality monitoring network; Kyrgyz Hydromet ി Ambient Air quality monitoring, under the ി Developing capacities for air quality modeling and Ministry of ി Air quality analysis; forecasts; Emergency ി Air quality modeling and forecasts. ി Improving the technical infrastructure for air quality Situations monitoring (e.g. air quality monitoring stations, laboratory equipment). ി Updating legislation and strengthening enforcement of emission controls in the energy ി Policies and regulations in the sector; Ministry of energy sector, including in heat Energy ി Fuel switching at CHP Bishkek; and power generation. ി Supporting residential energy efficiency and the adoption of cleaner heating alternatives. ി Updating legislation and strengthening ി Policies and regulations in the enforcement of emission controls in the transport Ministry of transport sector; sector; Transport and ി Setting up technical standards and ി Strengthening road vehicles’ inspections; Communications inspections of road vehicles. ി Supporting implementation of traffic management measures. 6 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Table ES2 Responsibilities related to air Suggested role in measures’ Institution quality management implementation ി Developing air quality management capacities at Responsible for managing a variety of Bishkek Mayor’s Office; activities at local level such as: ി Conversion of remaining coal-fired HoBs to cleaner fuels; ി urban planning and development; ി Supporting residential energy efficiency and the ി management of heat-only boilers adoption of cleaner heating alternatives; (HoBs) and heating networks in ി Implementing traffic management measures to Bishkek Mayor’s Bishkek; reduce traffic and road dust resuspension in the Office ി traffic management in Bishkek; city; ി public transport; ി Improving emission controls for public transport vehicles and marshrutkas; ി inspection of smaller enterprises; ി Improving the greening infrastructure; ി waste management; ി Supporting urban planning that helps reduce air ി greening. pollution; ി Strengthening control of open waste burning. Source: Original elaboration for this publication. In addition to the institutional stakeholders range of emission reduction measures. The study responsible for the implementation of emission provides valuable technical input to the decision- reduction measures, there could be a variety of making tool in setting policy priorities to improve private sector actors who can be engaged in the air quality in Bishkek. The air quality modeling implementation of such measures. For instance, conducted in the study can serve as a baseline for governments usually engage commercial banks assessing the effectiveness of implementation of in funding energy efficiency and clean residential future emission reduction measures. heating measures. Other private sector actors such The results provide a very informative initial as heat-pumps’ distributors and installers and assessment of the extent to which PM2.5 gas distributor companies could also facilitate the concentrations could be reduced, contextual implementation of emission reduction measures. information about the relative impact of different The civil society sector could be involved in types of reduction measures, and the relative communicating the need for emission reduction importance of reduction measures applied to measures to improve air quality to the general public different emissions sources. By identifying the and to disseminate information about available major sources and comparing the effectiveness of funding for such measures. various emission reduction measures, the study provides direction for further policy-related work in Conclusions and way forward different areas. It may be noted that the study has The study’s findings provide a strong analytical been conducted based on data currently available. foundation for the development and update of There is potential to further refine the data through strategic air quality documents such as the air additional efforts and some targeted investments quality plan of Bishkek. The purpose of this study in data collection both at the level of the emission is to determine the potential impact on ambient PM2.5 sources and ambient concentrations. This analysis concentrations in the Bishkek urban area from a wide should be carried out at regular intervals to inform CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 7 dynamic policy making. to determine whether air pollution levels have an unacceptably high impact on human health and It is recommended that the study and its findings help evidence-based policy making. Adequate are widely disseminated among the different institutional capacity and resources to set up and stakeholders to develop a comprehensive air implement air quality policy and plan are needed, quality strategy for Bishkek. Recommended next such as by preparing necessary legislative actions steps include the following: and enforcing legislation. ി Improve the understanding of different sources Overall, a comprehensive air quality plan for and their relative contributions to the growing air Bishkek and adequate institutional arrangements pollution issue in Bishkek. and capacity would prioritize policies and ി Based on feedback from local stakeholders, measures, monitor their implementation, and consider whether there is a need to revisit the adapt as needed to improve air quality. A timeline emission reduction measures and scenarios for the implementation of the priority policies and that have been assessed in the study, including measures would have to be drawn up, as well as consideration of new measures in the modeling responsible entities for implementation, financing, exercise. enforcement, and monitoring. Effective monitoring of ി Plan the next steps that build on the outcomes policies and measures’ implementation would then of this work, to develop a comprehensive air inform whether or not there is a need to redesign quality strategy for Bishkek that, in particular, policies and measures, adopt different/additional identifies the most effective investment policies and measures, alter implementation opportunities for improving air quality. Such next modalities, and/or procure additional funding. steps might include: cost/benefit assessment Such a process to air quality planning truly reflects of implementing emission reduction measures, the dynamic and complex nature of air quality distributional impacts of implementing air management and provides flexibility to address pollution interventions on economic growth issues in the implementation of policies and measures and human capital, as well as implementation aiming to achieve an air quality target. modalities, including legislation, resources, and The findings from the studies on technical capacities and implementation bottlenecks for assessment of air quality in Bishkek and the the agreed policies and measures. Moreover, institutional arrangements for AQMS in the bottom-up analyses in key sectors relevant to Kyrgyz Republic informed designing the air air quality management will inform the need quality improvement project supported by the for strengthened sectoral policies and required World Bank. This report identifies the main sources investments. of PM2.5 pollution that must be tackled to improve Ultimately, to have a functioning AQMS, a air quality in Bishkek, whereas the assessment of comprehensive air quality management plan institutional arrangements for AQMS identified gaps should be complemented by the capacity of air in infrastructure and capacity and recommendations quality assessment and implementation.  Several to support policy development for air quality. technical tools and relevant skills within several Together, these reports highlight areas that the government ministries, government research government of the Kyrgyz Republic can implement organizations, academia, or private companies are to improve air quality in the city of Bishkek and needed to assess the existing status of air quality broadly in the Kyrgyz Republic. 8 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS 1. Purpose of the Analysis Bishkek made international headlines because of this study undertakes follows a scientific approach the poor air quality in the city at the end of 2020— to air quality analysis and provides robust results beginning of 2021, especially after the IQAir platform to support the evidence based on the air quality announced Bishkek as the most polluted city in the situation in Bishkek. world in 2020. The ranking was mainly based on 3 This study has the following main objectives: low-cost sensor data, generally inferior to reference- grade air quality monitoring, but encouraged a ി To collect and consolidate all available data and number of researchers and development partners to information—both locally sourced data and data launch assessments about the air quality situation from global databases—about the key emission in Bishkek and the causes of air pollution in the city. sources of particles with a diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) in Bishkek Existing information and studies on air quality in Bishkek before the launch of the current analysis ി To create the first spatially and temporally were limited and at times contradictory. Some dynamic PM2.5 emissions map of Bishkek sources 4 claimed that transport was the main ി To conduct the first state-of-the-art air pollution source of air pollution in Bishkek, others pointed modeling over the entire Bishkek airshed at windblown dust as the primary reason for PM 2.5 to identify source contributions to PM2.5 pollution in the Kyrgyz Republic 5 , while others concentrations claimed that Bishkek’s combined heat and power (CHP) plant 6 or the city’s dumpsite7 are the main ി To model the impact on PM2.5 concentrations of culprits for polluted air in the city. Similarly, the implementing key emission reduction measures. approaches that those existing studies took varied; While fulfilling the objectives, the study aims to some of the studies relied on emissions estimates, inform the design of the evidence-based priority others on satellite observations and modeling, and measures for air quality improvement in Bishkek. some on limited monitoring data. Hence, the study provides valuable technical input Therefore, there was a need for a comprehensive to decision-making in setting policy priorities to analysis of the air quality situation in Bishkek, improve air quality in Bishkek. In addition, the utilizing all available data and resources and air quality modeling conducted in the study can enhancing a local emissions inventory to be used serve as a baseline for assessing the effectiveness as input to a state-of-the-art pollutant transport of implementation of future emission reduction modeling. The comprehensive assessment that measures. The study’s findings provide a strong 3 https://www.iqair.com/kyrgyzstan. 4 Center for Environment and Development. 2018. Air Pollution Sources in Cities in Kyrgyzstan. http://ced.auca.kg/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Воздух-РС-для-сайта.pdf. 5 Global Burden of Disease-Major Air Pollution Sources (GBD-MAPS). 2019. Kyrgyzstan. https://costofairpollution.shinyapps.io/gbd_map_ global_source_shinyapp/. 6 24.kg. Загрязнение воздуха. В  БГК предложили ТЭЦ Бишкека использовать проектный уголь. https://24.kg/obschestvo/257992_zagryaznenie_vozduha_vbgk_ predlojili_tets_bishkeka_ispolzovat_proektnyiy_ugol/. Moldogazieva, K. 2020. Влияние мусорных полигонов на здоровье населения. http://ekois.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Vliyanie-na-zdorove-naseleniya- 7 musornyh-poligonov.pdf. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 9 analytical foundation for the development and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study estimated update of strategic air quality documents such as that 61 premature deaths per 100,000 people can be the air quality plan of Bishkek. attributed to PM2.5 pollution in the Kyrgyz Republic. Overall, PM2.5 pollution was estimated to cause As the study’s main objectives are related to filling- annual health damages in the country equivalent to in the existing knowledge gaps on sources of air 5.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Using pollution and establishing a common understanding the same GBD methodology,10 this study estimates of PM2.5 emission sources and their contributions to that the annual health damages arising from the concentrations in Bishkek, the study does not delve monitored PM2.5 concentrations, and subsequently further into cost-benefit analysis of the considered the calculated annual average population-weighted emission reduction measures, distributional impacts exposure, in Bishkek is equivalent to 1.2 percent of of air pollution interventions on economic growth the Kyrgyz GDP. and human capital and on the specific arrangements for the measures’ implementations. Such analyses In addition to PM2.5, the study considers the impact of are important in developing a comprehensive air the PM2.5 emission reduction measures on emissions quality assessment and will be taken up in the next of the main greenhouse gas (GHG)—carbon dioxide steps, namely, while supporting the development of (CO2). The study also analyzes the key sources of Bishkek’s air quality plan. black carbon (BC) in Bishkek—a key component in PM2.5 and a short-lived climate pollutant (SLCP). The study’s main focus is on PM2.5 as the pollutant of the gravest health concern according to the World This report provides context for the air pollution Health Organization (WHO). PM2.5 is associated situation in Bishkek (Chapter 2) and describes with causing cardiovascular  (ischemic heart the methodology and data used (Chapter 3). It disease), cerebrovascular  (stroke),  and respiratory continues by summarizing the results from the impacts due to the ability of particles to not only PM2.5 emission sources’ analysis (Chapter 4), the penetrate deep into  the  lungs but also enter  the conducted modeling (Chapter 5), and the emission bloodstream. Moreover, morbidity and mortality from reduction scenarios (Chapter 6). Chapter 7 provides cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are linked key recommendations for improving the air quality to both long-term and short-term exposure to PM2.5. management system (AQMS) in the Kyrgyz Republic. Furthermore, long-term exposure to high PM2.5 levels Chapter 8 recaps the study’s main findings and has been linked to adverse perinatal outcomes and concludes with suggestions for next steps and for lung cancer. A World Bank report on the global 8 9 how the study’s results can be used and further health cost of PM2.5 pollution using results from the developed. 8 9 10 8 WHO. Type of pollutants. https://www.who.int/teams/environment-climate-change-and-health/air-quality-and-health/health-impacts/types-of-pollutants . 9 Awe, Yewande Aramide, Bjorn Klavdy Larsen, and Ernesto Sanchez-Triana. The Global Health Cost of PM 2.5 Air Pollution: A Case for Action Beyond 2021. International Development in Focus. World Bank, Washington, DC. 10 https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2019-relative-risks . 10 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS 2. Background to Air Pollution in Bishkek This chapter provides the context for the analytical 2.1. General context work conducted in this study and includes three Bishkek is the capital and the largest city in the Kyrgyz subsections. Section 2.1 describes the general Republic with a population of just over 1 million in characteristics of Bishkek such as location, 2022.11 Its urban area spans over 160 km2 , and the population, and topography. Section 2.2 summarizes city is situated in the Chuy Valley at an altitude of the key meteorological parameters that influence about 800 m. It is located around 25–30 km north of the dispersion of air pollutants in Bishkek. Section the Kyrgyz Ala-Too mountain range’s foothills. Some 2.3 provides a general overview of the air quality of the peaks in this mountain range rise over 4,000 m monitoring infrastructure in Bishkek and the above sea level. A fertile steppe surrounds Bishkek on conclusions of the PM2.5 monitoring data analysis. the city’s north, east, and west sides (Figure 1). Figure 1: Location and topography of Bishkek 11 Source: Google Maps. 11 National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic. http://www.stat.kg/ru/statistics/naselenie/. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 11 2.2. Meteorology Figure 3: Wind speeds in Bishkek, 2018, Bishkek’s climate is characterized by cold winters by hour (top), diurnal (bottom) and hot summers. Snowfall can occur as early as late September–early October and as late as April. The average monthly rainfall is the highest in the spring and the fall. Average daily temperature lows in the winter months are about -9°C, whereas average daily temperature highs in the summer reach 32°C. In addition, during the coldest winter months, temperatures are below 0°C for over 80 percent of the hours in a month and are generally below 10°C throughout the winter months which emphasizes the strong demand for heating in the winter (Figure 2). Figure 2: Modeled hourly temperatures in Bishkek at 2 m height by month, 2018, % of hours in a month Source: WRF model. The dominant wind directions in Bishkek throughout the year are from the south and the west (Figure 4, top). Winds coming from the west have the highest Source: WRF model. wind speeds (the dark blue areas in Figure 4). The wind patterns change throughout the year with Wind speeds in Bishkek are low in the winter mainly Southerly, low-speed winds dominating in months—under 2 m/s for over 60 percent of the the winter months and Westerly, higher-speed winds time in winter (Figure 3, top). Moreover, there are in the spring and summer months (Figure 4, middle minimal diurnal differences in wind speeds in the and bottom). Therefore, while low wind speeds winter months (Figure 3, bottom). These factors are trap pollution in the city during winter, higher wind unfavorable for pollutant dispersion in the winter speeds in the spring and summer have the potential and assist in the trapping of air pollution over the to bring particles into Bishkek, especially from areas city. to the west and south of the city. 12 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS than the temperature of the surrounding ambient Figure 4: Wind directions in Bishkek, 2018, annual environment, its rise will slow down and eventually average (top), wintera (middle), summerb (bottom) stop. It is at this point that the parcel of air has reached the maximum mixing height beyond which there is no more possibility to disperse further up in the atmosphere. Temperature inversions, frequently observed in Bishkek, restrict vertical mixing and prevent the dispersion of pollution. As shown in Figure 5, the mixing height in Bishkek can be under 100 m for over half of the hours in some winter months. Overall, winter months are characterized with low mixing heights and small diurnal differences in the mixing height as opposed to summer months when the mixing height is much higher. Low mixing height, combined with low wind speeds in the winter, is conducive to trapping pollution over Bishkek. Figure 5: Mixing height in Bishkek, by hour (top), diurnal (bottom) Source: WRF model. Note: a. Winter months are November, December, January, and February; b. Summer months are June, July, and August. Another key parameter for the dispersion of air pollutants is the mixing height. The mixing height indicates the height above ground of the vertical mixing of air, including suspended particles. A parcel of air will rise up in the atmosphere as long as it is warmer than the ambient temperature. Source: WRF model. However, once the parcel of air becomes colder CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 13 2.3. Air quality data analysis Figure 6: Locations of reference-grade air quality monitoring stations in Bishkek 2.3.1. Air quality monitoring infrastructure in Bishkek This study analyzed all available PM2.5 monitoring data for Bishkek from both automatic reference- grade and sensor networks. There are two automatic air quality stations in Bishkek that meet international monitoring standards. One is managed by Kyrgyz Hydromet, and the other by the US Embassy in Bishkek using EPA reference equipment and methods. The Kyrgyz Hydromet station is located in a residential area in the western part of Bishkek, whereas the US Embassy’s station is located in the southern part of the city (Figure 6). Source: Google Maps. The automatic air quality monitoring station collected for this study are Purple Air and AirKaz. managed by Kyrgyz Hydromet was installed in Data are available for around 15 sensors from each the fall of 2015 and monitors most of the key air of the two networks. pollutants. Due to technical issues, no PM2.5 data were reported from August 2018 to September 2020. 2.3.2. Air quality trends in Bishkek On the other hand, the US Embassy’s automatic air All collected air quality monitoring data were used quality monitoring station became operational in in the analysis of air quality trends in Bishkek. The February 2019 and has reported PM2.5 data since. automatic air quality monitoring stations provide The largest air quality sensor network in Bishkek is the highest data reliability, but there are only two managed by Kyrgyz Hydromet and consists of 50 of them in Bishkek. In addition, Kyrgyz Hydromet’s Clarity Node sensors. The Clarity Node sensors are automatic air quality station did not report PM2.5 data calibrated according to the data reported by Kyrgyz for a two-year period. Hydromet’s automatic air quality monitoring station. On the other hand, data from sensor networks The sensors are installed across Bishkek City, are less reliable as the sensors do not have the including a number of sensors placed just beyond precision of the equipment installed in the automatic the administrative boundaries of the city (Figure air qualit2y stations. However, the sensor networks 7). In this respect, the Clarity Node sensor network provide a better geographical coverage than the provides good geographical coverage of Bishkek. automatic stations and are indicative of air quality Other sensor networks from which data were trends. Data from the sensor networks were carefully 14 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS analyzed, and sensors reporting improbable data (for example, PM2.5 Figure 7: Location of Clarity Node sensors in Bishkek concentrations higher than PM10 concentrations) were not included in the analysis. Moreover, due to the different times of installation and periods with no data reported of the various air quality monitoring networks, it was not possible to have a time series with data from all networks that spans over a number of years. Therefore, the available time series from each monitoring network were analyzed separately. Figure 8 shows a comparison between all analyzed monitoring networks over 2020–2021 when data were available from all of them. Source: Kyrgyz Hydromet. Figure 8: PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek, average over 2020–2021, in µg/m3 μ Source: Kyrgyz Hydromet, US Embassy, Purple Air, and AirKaz. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 15 Despite some differences in the absolute values Hydromet station) to 64 µg/m3 (AirKaz sensor reported by the different air quality monitoring network). Even the lowest calculated annual average networks, Figure 8 demonstrates that there is a clear PM2.5 concentration is six times above the WHO trend in PM2.5 concentrations. PM2.5 concentrations guideline. peak in the winter months (January, February, November, and December) and are the lowest in the PM2.5 concentrations in the winter are extremely summer months (June, July, and August). high—breaching both Kyrgyz and international air Because of the differences in absolute values in quality standards12 and potentially causing significant monitored concentrations, annual average PM2.5 harm to human health. Even in the summer months concentrations calculated from the different when PM2.5 concentrations are at their lowest levels, monitoring networks range from 30 µg/m3 (Kyrgyz concentrations are above WHO guidelines. 12 12 WHO annual and daily average PM 2.5 guideline values are 5 μ g/m3 and 15 μ g/m3, respectively. Kyrgyz annual and daily average maximum allowed PM 2.5 concentrations are 25 μ g/m3 and 35 μ g/m3 , respectively. 16 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS 3. Methodology and Data Used The estimation of source contributions to PM2.5 (CAMx), which incorporates meteorological inputs concentrations requires the compilation of a baseline from the Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF) high-resolution emissions inventory. For this study, model, was used in this study, and the model is emissions were spatially and temporally distributed described in Section 3.6. The modeling results over the defined Bishkek airshed, which as a were compared with the available air quality result created the first dynamic emissions map for monitoring data for Bishkek. After model calibration Bishkek. Emissions were estimated and distributed and validation with the monitoring data, the model at a spatial resolution of 1 km by using data from 2 was used for assessing the impact on air quality various sources, described in Section 3.2. The of various emission reduction scenarios (Chapter approaches to emissions calculations are described 6). Finally, preliminary results from the study were in Section 3.4. The high-resolution emissions discussed with stakeholders from the government, inventory enables the use of sophisticated models to Bishkek City administration, development partners, analyze air pollution dynamics. The photochemical academia, and civil society before finalizing the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with extensions study’s results (Section 3.7). Figure 9: Schematic illustration of the study’s main components Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: GIS = Geographic information system. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 17 3.1. Definition of the airshed’s boundaries Figure 10: Bishkek’s airshed An initial task was to define the area to be studied, that is, the airshed, in such a way as to capture emissions dispersion from sources that possibly affect air quality in Bishkek. Geo-scanning of Bishkek and the surrounding area using Google Earth was performed to identify potential emissions sources. The selected airshed spans 50 × 40 grids with a total area of 1,800 km 2 (Figure 10). The area covers the main Bishkek City area and the neighboring regions with industrial estates, brick kilns, quarries, the airport, and the dumpsite—sources that might have an impact on air quality in Bishkek. Since the spatial grid resolution for Source: Original elaboration for this publication this study is 0.01°, that is, each grid overlaid on a Google Earth map. is equivalent to 1 km2 , all the collated information and analyzed results from the study are The high-resolution layers with key data allowed maintained in standard GIS-ready formats at this the estimation of emissions for each grid cell, thus grid resolution. The GIS formats also allow the use enabling the creation of a spatially and temporally of 3D modeling techniques. Hence, the following key dynamic emissions map for the airshed (Chapter 4). data layers for air pollution analysis are available for The data from the resulting air pollution modeling each grid cell of the defined airshed: are also available for each grid cell of the studied airshed (Chapter 5). Meteorological data layer Population layer ി 3.2. Data resources ി Road network layer To achieve high resolution of the data and allow for ി Level of urbanization layer dynamic spatial and temporal emission estimates and ി Land use layer pollution modeling, this study used various sources of ി Topography layer data—a combination of locally obtained data, data from ി Points of commercial activity layer (industries, global databases, and published literature. Moreover, hospitals, hotels, fuel stations, malls, markets, satellite data and data from globally recognized office complexes, banks, cafes, restaurants, models were used to strengthen the foundations for convenience stores, and so on). the modeling conducted in this study. 18 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Locally obtained data included the following: ി International Organization for Migration (IOM).15 ി Air quality monitoring data from the Agency In addition, the study utilized information from a on Hydrometeorology under the Ministry of number of global and local databases: Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic ി AirNow. This is the US Department of State’s (Kyrgyz Hydromet), including data from the web-based platform for publishing air quality reference automatic air quality station in Bishkek data from US Environmental Protection Agency and the 50 Clarity Node sensors installed in (EPA) reference grade monitoring stations Bishkek deployed at US embassies around the world. ി Data from the National Statistical Committee Data were obtained from the US Embassy air of the Kyrgyz Republic, including data on quality monitoring station in Bishkek (https:// industrial emissions, energy consumption, fuel www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies- consumption, freight and passenger movement, and-consulates/#Kyrgyzstan$Bishkek). number of registered vehicles in Bishkek, ി Purple Air. This is a global network of air quality residential energy use, and waste composition. sensors. Data were obtained for the 13 sensors ി Data from the Bishkek Mayor’s Office, including installed in Bishkek (https://www2.purpleair. data on areas under construction; maps of the com/). district heating infrastructure; location and ി AirKaz. This is a regional network of air quality consumption data of heat-only boilers (HoBs); sensors. Data were obtained for the sensors map of the residential gas distribution network; installed in Bishkek (https://airkaz.org/bishkek. and data on public transport and shuttles php). (marshrutki) such as fuel consumption, vehicle fleet, and average mileage of public transport. ി STATISTA. This is a commercial data service site, which provides information on vehicle sales, The emissions reports that the Kyrgyz Republic registration by vehicle type and year, population, had submitted to the Convention on Long-Range and GDP (https://www.statista.com). Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) and to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ി Open Street Maps (OSM) database. This is used Change (UNFCCC) were also analyzed. for information about the road network, covering highways and arterial and feeder roads as well as Given that a number of development partners were for information about commercial activity points conducting analytical work in the area of air quality such as hotels, hospitals, apartment complexes, in Bishkek, relevant data were obtained from the industries, parking lots, fuel stations, malls, studies of markets, office and commercial complexes, ി United Nations Development Programme/United banks, cafes, restaurants, and convenience Nations Environment Programme (UNDP/ stores (https://www.openstreetmap.org). UNEP), 13 ി Global Human Settlements (GHS) Program ി United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), and 14 of the European Space Agency (ESA). This is 13 UNDP and UNEP. 2022. Air Quality in Bishkek: Assessment of Emission Sources and Roadmap for Supporting Air Quality Management. Bishkek and Nairobi. https://www.undp.org/kyrgyzstan/publications/air-quality-bishkek-assessment-emission-sources-and-roadmap-supporting-air-quality-management. 14 UNICEF. 2022. Health and Social Impacts of Air Pollution on Women and Children in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. 15 IOM. 2021. Air Pollution and Its Health Impacts on Internal Migrants in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan - Assessment Report. Geneva: IOM. https://publications.iom.int/ books/air-pollution-and-its-health-impacts-internal-migrants-bishkek-kyrgyzstan-assessment-report. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 19 used for information on the built-up urban area ി WRF modeling system. All meteorological data in the airshed for 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2014 were processed through the WRF modeling (https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/datasets.php). system at a spatial resolution of 0.01° and at a 1-hour temporal resolution (https://www.mmm. ി LANDSCAN program. This database provided ucar.edu/models/wrf). information on gridded population at a 30-second resolution for the entire city airshed (https:// ി Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions landscan.ornl.gov/). It uses official estimates and Synergies (GAINS) model. An emission from the respective governments at the district factors (EFs) database was extracted from and ward levels, which are further segregated the GAINS modeling system for the baseline to finer grids using information on commercial, emissions inventory (https://gains.iiasa.ac.at/ land use, and night light data fields. models). ി FlightStats. This is a commercial data service, ി Washington University in St. Louis. The which provides information on domestic and university runs a program for long-term PM2.5 international flight schedules for airports in the concentration data based on a global chemical airshed (https://www.flightstats.com). transport model coupled with satellite retrievals (https://sites.wustl.edu/acag/datasets/). ി Google Earth. This is used for information on features of interest, identified while scanning the airshed, for which GIS fields are not readily 3.3. Data limitations available (https://earth.google.com/web/). Despite best efforts to collect data from local and ി MOZART/WACCM16 modeling system. This global sources, there are some important limitations is used for the analysis of the boundary of the data available for this study. The key data conditions—determining the pollutant fluxes limitations and approaches to address those from surrounding areas into the defined airshed. limitations are described in Table 1. 16 Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers/ Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. Table 1: Main data limitations and ways to address them Data limitation Approaches to address data limitation Missing or inconsistent air quality monitoring data: ി PM 2.5 monitoring data from the reference automatic air quality station at Kyrgyz To ensure adequate monitoring data coverage, all air quality monitoring Hydromet were missing for data available for Bishkek were collected and analyzed. the period August 2018 to September 2020. Sensor data were analyzed for inconsistencies and improbable values, and when certain sensors showed such, they were excluded from the ി PM 2.5 data from sensors analysis. show inconsistencies and improbable values (for example, PM 2.5 concentrations higher than PM10 concentrations). 20 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Data limitation Approaches to address data limitation No official data on consumption Information from studies, including household surveys, was used and of fuels and on heating cross-checked to estimate average fuel consumption for residential appliances used in the heating and typical heating appliances used in households. residential sector The location of households using coal for heating was deduced from No data on location of analyzing the existing heating infrastructure in Bishkek (CHP-fueled households using coal for and HoB-fueled district heating), the buildings’ type (multi-family versus heating single family), the population spread, and urbanization levels. In the absence of availability of detailed data for the CHP plant in Bishkek, especially regarding the operation and performance of the pollution Lack of information on CHP abatement equipment, it was assumed that electrostatic precipitator abatement technologies (ESPs) and bag filters at the CHP plant are working with an efficiency of over 98 percent. Mileage data were estimated based on available data from the National Statistical Committee about fuel consumption and freight and passenger Lack of mileage and traffic movement. Traffic flows were modeled using expert judgment and the count data data-rich GIS layers about population, urbanization levels, the road network, and points of interest. Estimates for emissions from the dumpsite were conducted based on the available waste composition information, as well as Google Earth Lack of detailed waste data imaging of the dumpsite’s area on fire, complemented by a site visit to the dumpsite. Lack of detailed data on smaller Industrial emissions were estimated using energy balance data and industries other relevant industrial data from the National Statistical Committee. No activity data for certain Emissions from those sources were estimated based on Google Earth source categories (for example, imaging and experience from other countries regarding production brick kilns and quarries) levels and practices. Lack of country-specific EFs Relevant EFs were obtained from the global model GAINS. Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 3.4. Emissions calculations The emission calculations utilized data from the The GAINS database17 contains emission factors for different sources, described in Section 3.2, as well over 2,000 technologies that produce emissions and as expert judgment for spatially and temporally thus, is one of the largest emission factors’ database distributing emissions across the airshed. Default globally. The emission calculations’ methodology emission factors from the GAINS database were for the main emission sources is described in the used in the calculation of emissions. The GAINS sections below. model is a widely used model to assess strategies to reduce emissions of air pollutants and GHGs. The 3.4.1. Residential heating model is used for policy analyses under CLRTAP, by The main activity data needed for the estimation the EU and in numerous countries around the world. of residential heating emissions is the energy 17 https://previous.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/air/Global_emissions.html. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 21 consumption for heating by fuels and the type the emissions calculations were performed, of heating appliances used. Due to the lack of the availability of residential heating options in official data on those, the residential heating Bishkek was analyzed. Maps of the district heating emissions estimates used a number of data infrastructure and information about the location sources to distribute emissions as accurately and fuel consumption of the HoBs were obtained as possible spatially and temporally. Before from Bishkek Mayor ’s Office (Figure 11). Figure 11: District heating network (left) and HoBs in Bishkek (right) Source: Bishkek Mayor’s Office (left) and original mapping for this publication (right). The available information indicated that about 50 and are characterized by high pollutant emissions percent of Bishkek’s population is connected to the and low energy efficiency (EE).19 district heating network, and about 10 percent to The information presented above aided the process the HoBs. Therefore, about 40 percent of Bishkek’s of identifying the locations of SFHs using coal for population is not connected to any of the two and heating. It was assumed that households in areas uses individual heating systems. The individual not covered by the district heating and/or HoBs heating systems are predominantly used in single- used individual heating systems and that 75 percent family houses (SFHs) and rely on coal. 18 of the SFHs in those areas used primarily coal for Most SFHs (98 percent) rely on individual heating heating, whereas the multi-family buildings in those systems and 75 percent of those use coal as the areas used other heating means (such as electricity primary fuel. Simple low-pressure boilers or and gas). In addition, scanning using Google Earth traditional coal-fired stoves are the most common showed that there is a dominance of SFHs in the northern part of Bishkek. heating appliances used in households, sometimes using a combination of fuels for their heating needs, A number of recent studies20 have undertaken 18 World Bank. 2021. Research and Assessment of Existing Heating Systems in Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic. 19 Ibid. 20 Studies by the World Bank, UNICEF, and IOM. 22 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS household surveys and have collected coal EFs for such appliances). The temporal distribution consumption data. The coal consumption data of residential heating emissions in the model is a vary depending on the specific conditions of the function of ambient temperature—heating is assumed households. The data from the different studies to be used when the temperature is below 15°C. As indicate about 9 GJ/year/capita average coal described in Section 3.2, meteorological data are consumption for heating, which was the coal available for every grid cell of the airshed at a 1-hour consumption assumed in this study, in simple, resolution, thus allowing for high-resolution and inefficient appliances (that is, using the respective dynamic modeling of residential heating emissions. Box 1: Calculation of residential heating emissions Residential heating emissions For this study, the equation was solved for each SFH in the calculations following way: Emissions from residential heating of ി The emissions equation was solved when hourly SFHs were calculated using the following ambient air temperature was below 15°C and hence, the equation which is the default approach for heating season is assumed to begin in October and last residential heating emission calculations until end of March. in the latest emission calculation ി The emissions equation was solved for the pollutant (i) methodologies (for example, European PM 2.5 . Monitoring and Evaluation Programme/ European Environment Agency air ി The source type j , that is, the type of heating appliances pollutant emission inventory guidebook used in households, was assumed to be standard heating 2019): stoves with no emissions control. The fuel k was coal. E i = f(t)Σj,kEFi,j,k × Aj,k, ി ി The EF for the coal stoves with no emissions control was where taken from the GAINS database and equaled 480 g/GJ. E i = annual emission of pollutant i , ി The annual coal consumption was estimated at 9 GJ/ F(t) = a function of ambient air year/capita based on households’ survey studies. temperature t , ി The total emissions from residential heating from SFHs EFi,j,k = default emission factor of was then the sum of the emissions of each individual SFH. pollutant i for source type j and fuel k , Default functions from the latest international Aj,k = annual consumption of fuel k methodologies were used for the emissions calculations of in source type j. the other emissions sources in this study. 3.4.2. Road transport data indicated that about 95 percent of all vehicles registered in Bishkek are over 15 years old, and The main activity data needed to estimate emissions hence, EFs for older vehicle categories (Euro 4 and from road transport are the structure of the vehicle older) were used. Fuel consumption data from the fleet, fuel consumption, and mileage. Data on the national energy balance of the Kyrgyz Republic, as structure of the vehicle fleet were obtained from well as statistics on freight and passenger movement the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz were used to estimate mileage and were obtained Republic, as well as from Bishkek Mayor’s Office. The from the National Statistical Committee of the CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 23 Kyrgyz Republic. The amount of cargo In general, traffic flows were spatially and temporally distributed transport and passengers moved on along 310 km of primary roads, 250 km of secondary roads, 4,500 the national level was downscaled km of tertiary roads, and 1,860 km of other roads across the to Bishkek, based on population defined airshed (Figure 12). and economic activity. The obtained mileage was then compared to the Figure 12: Road network in the Bishkek airshed calculated transport fuel consumption for Bishkek to verify the mileage assumptions for Bishkek used in the modeling. To represent emissions spatially and temporally from road transport and in the absence of traffic count data at different locations in Bishkek, several assumptions of the traffic flows in the city had to be made. The detailed, high-resolution layers of the road network, population, urbanization levels, and points of commercial interest, described in Section 3.1, were used to simulate traffic flows in the Bishkek airshed by developing traffic flow calculations as functions Source: Original elaboration for this publication. of a combination of parameters. For instance, heavy-duty traffic was assumed to use the primary roads to Box 2: Road transport emissions calculations and from the different industries in and Road transport emissions calculations around the city, and private vehicle Emissions from road transport were estimated using the traffic was primarily flowing to and from following equation: points of interest (office complexes, commercial areas, hospitals, and so E v,f,g,p = NVv,g × Sf × VKTv,g × EF v,f,g,p, on). In terms of temporal distribution where of traffic flows, morning and afternoon E v,f,g,p = total emissions (tons/year) of pollutant p by vehicle rush hours were modeled using office type v, fuel type f , and age g; complexes, industries, and different NVv,g = number of vehicles on the road of vehicle type v and institutions as indication of where age g; traffic is flowing to (for example, to S f = the share of vehicles on the road for each fuel type f ; and from work/school), as well as an VKTv,g = the annual average vehicle kilometers traveled by increase in traffic was simulated to vehicle type v and age g; and occur on the main roads connecting EF v,f,g,p = the fleet average emission factor (g/km) for pollutant Bishkek with the airport around the p by vehicle type v, fuel f , and age g . times of flights’ arrivals and departures. 24 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS 3.4.3. CHP plant Figure 13: CHP in Bishkeka The main activity data about the CHP plant in Bishkek needed for emissions calculations is the installed capacity, the operating capacity, the annual fuel consumption, and stack parameters. In addition, the study estimated the PM 2.5 emissions originating from the coal storage outside the plant. Scanning of the CHP area, as well as a site visit, identified that coal is stored outside the plant and is not covered (Figure 13). Emissions from the outdoors coal storage at the CHP are a function of the storage area — the exact area was identified using Google Earth. The CHP in Bishkek has 24 power Source: Google Earth. generation units built in 1961 and the Note: a. The black area in the picture is coal stored outside the plant. plant underwent modernization in 2017. Currently, 13 power generation Figure 14: Locations of the industrial estates units are operational and have a total in the Bishkek airsheda installed capacity of 910 MW. The plant uses about 1 million tons of local coal and about 650,000 tons of coal from Kazakhstan annually. The coal consumption figures were confirmed by MNRETS. Information on the operation of abatement equipment at the CHP plant such as the efficiency of ESPs is not readily available, and hence, the study utilized information obtained from meetings with CHP staff confirming the operation of ESP filters. The study assumed that ESPs and bag filters are working with an efficiency of about 98 percent considering the recent partial modernization of the CHP in 2017 and information from CHP Source: Original map for this publication. Note: a. CHP plant (the dark red area on the map) is also included in this map. staff. The operation and efficiency of CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 25 ESPs have a large impact on CHP emissions, and functions assume heavy-duty vehicle traffic therefore represent important information which primarily going to and from industrial estates as well is suggested to be made publicly available and as some private vehicle traffic (for example, for work verified through independent periodic audits of the and commercial activities). ESPs efficiency. 3.4.5. Dumpsite 3.4.4. Industrial estates The main parameters for emissions calculation Apart from the CHP plant, other industrial estates from dumpsites are the composition of waste and were also considered in the analysis (Figure 14). the dumpsite’s area that is on fire. Given the limited As mentioned in Section 3.3, industrial emissions available data about the dumpsite, assumptions had were estimated by mainly using energy balance to be made to model the impact that the dumpsite has tables and information from the National Statistical on PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek. The assumptions Committee. Industrial estates are also important were based on international studies, Google Earth when simulating traffic flows as the traffic flows’ imaging, and a site visit. Figure 15: Bishkek dumpsite: location (left) and satellite imaging (right) Source: Original map for this publication (left), Google Earth (right). 3.4.6. Brick kilns City (Figure 16). Google Earth imaging and a site The inclusion of brick kilns in the emission inventory visit to one of the brick kilns helped identify the is one of the unique features of this study, compared scale of brick production. It was estimated that on to existing ones. Emissions from brick production average, the brick kilns produce about 20,000 bricks arise from the fuels used in the kiln and from the per operational day and the relevant EF for brick open-air drying of the bricks. There are 16 brick kilns production of this scale was applied to estimate in the defined airshed, mainly outside of Bishkek emissions. 26 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Figure 16: Brick kilns’ location (left) and imaging (right) Source: Original map for this study (left), Google Earth (right). 3.4.7. Quarries from the crushing equipment using fossil fuels (for Other sources for which emissions were estimated example, predominantly diesel) and from the open for the first time for Bishkek were quarries. The total quarry area. Google Earth imaging was used to identified area with quarries in the defined airshed identify the production practices at the quarries. was 7.5 km2 with most quarries located outside of Global databases and EFs specific for quarries were the city (Figure 17). Emissions from quarries arise used to estimate emissions from this source. Figure 17: Quarries’ location (left) and imaging (right) Source: Original map for this study (left), Google Earth (right). CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 27 3.4.8. Manas International Airport Another source that was included for the first and take-offs per hour was obtained from the time in an emissions inventory for Bishkek was commercial flight database FlightStats 21 (Figure Manas International Airport. Based on information 18). The data on landings and take-offs were also about landings and take-offs, standard EFs used incorporated into the traffic flows’ functions— for landings, take-offs, and passenger and freight increase in traffic on the main roads connecting shuttling were applied to estimate emissions from Bishkek City and the airport was modeled around airport operations. The exact number of landings the time of landings and take-offs. Figure 18: Hourly landings and take-offs at Manas International Airport Source: FlightStats. 3.5. Analysis of other sources of PM2.5 pollution PM2.5 pollution can also occur due to natural dust hand, boundary or windblown dust represents dust events and dust transport, as well as from other coming from outside the defined airshed (outside the urban-level activities such as construction and road red grid pictured on Figure 10) due to natural dust dust resuspension. For this study, urban dust was events, degraded pasture and forest lands around defined as resuspension of dust on the roads and dust from construction activities occurring inside the Bishkek, PM2.5 transport from barren and agricultural defined airshed presented in Figure 10. On the other land, and so on. 28 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS 3.5.1. Urban dust 21 Asia region. The GBD-MAPS database estimates that 44 percent of PM2.5 concentrations in Central Urban dust consists of two main components— Asia are attributed to windblown dust. 23 Thus, any resuspension of dust on roads and dust from air quality analysis will be incomplete without construction activities. Road dust resuspension is a considering the contribution of windblown dust to function of silt loading on the roads, mix of vehicles PM2.5 concentrations. Traditional box models stop at on the roads (represented as fleet average vehicle the boundary of the airshed, and anything coming weight), and vehicle-km travelled. Data on vehicle from outside the defined airshed is largely ignored. fleet and on vehicle-km travelled were obtained Therefore, the boundary conditions (that is, dust from the National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz transport from outside the defined airshed) are Republic and from the Mayor’s Office (number and essential for running the chemical  transport model type of vehicles registered in Bishkek). so that the contribution of sources outside the Similarly, for construction dust, the calculation is a airshed are also included. function of the amount of area under construction and a coefficient for the expected dust erosion. Data The boundary conditions for Bishkek modeling were on the amount of area under construction were taken from the MOZART/WACCM global model24 obtained from Bishkek Mayor’s Office. which is one of the models and pre-processors included in the CAMx modeling system used in this The study utilized the calculation method for urban study (Section 3.6). Given the absence of any major dust standardized by US EPA in their US-AP42 activity outside the designated airshed (identified protocol. 22 Dust resuspension following the US-AP42 through geo-scanning and reflected in the land- protocol is a standard urban dust resuspension use layer in the modeling) and given the well- calculation method applied by institutions and documented occurrence of dust events in the region, academia around the world. In addition, the urban it is assumed that most of the boundary  activity is dust emissions are suppressed in the modeling windblown dust. whenever the grid experiences rain or some precipitation, and therefore, urban dust contribution The analysis for Bishkek uses the calculations to PM2.5 concentrations is assessed dynamically from the global model MOZART/WACCM, in which considering the meteorological conditions. the windblown dust is calculated using two main factors—presence of dry and dusty land and the 3.5.2. Windblown dust wind speeds above a certain threshold for the dust Natural dust events and dust transport from barren, to uplift, entrain, and get transported. In this way, the agricultural land; degraded lands; and some model dynamically calculates for each grid of the commercial activities, such as quarries or borrow defined airshed the PM2.5 load that is attributable pits, giving rise to windblown dust, affect PM2.5 to windblown dust. The MOZART/WACCM is well concentrations across the globe. Global model established and has multiple applications globally, data show that windblown dust is an important including in areas like the Sahara, the Gobi, and the contributor to PM2.5 concentrations in the Central Middle East. 21 https://www.flightstats.com. 22 https://www3.epa.gov/ttnchie1/ap42/ch13. 23 Washington University in St. Louis. Atmospheric Composition Analysis Group: GDB-MAPS – Global. https://costofairpollution.shinyapps.io/gbd_ map_ global_ source_shinyapp/. 24 https://www2.acom.ucar.edu/gcm/waccm. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 29 3.6. Approach to modeling transformations to the fullest extent possible. CAMx is an open-source, Eulerian state-of-the- Modeling of air pollution utilizes meteorological art modeling system which aids in evaluating not data and emissions data to simulate the dispersion only total concentrations, but also in apportioning of air pollution over an airshed. Using the sources and regions, at regional and urban scales approaches for emissions calculations presented and at multiple time scales and therefore, was in Section 3.4, this study created a spatially and deemed as the most appropriate model to fulfil the temporally dynamic emissions map for the defined study’s objectives. The CAMx modeling system airshed. The emission data were then coupled with has several applications as federal and state level spatially and temporally dynamic meteorological case studies in the United States and multiple data layer to allow for high-resolution modeling research applications worldwide. at an hourly scale. This study used CAMx, which WRF is a state-of-the-art mesoscale numerical incorporates meteorological inputs from the WRF model widely used for atmospheric research. It model. is used in a number of national meteorological There are several chemical transport models centers across the world. With the help of the WRF available with varying degrees of complexities model, 3D meteorological data were prepared for in handling and processing the emissions this study. The meteorological data are available and providing the final output in the form of at a spatial resolution of 0.01° and at a 1-hour concentrations. These range from simple box temporal resolution. The 3D meteorological models to moderate physics and chemistry modeling that was conducted using WRF allows models using Lagrangian and Gaussian  solvers for the consideration of topography’s impact on to Eulerian models that are capable of processing meteorological parameters and provides realistic the emissions in a 3-dimensional setting taking simulations of the relevant meteorological into consideration both advection and chemical conditions for air pollution modeling (Figure 19). Figure 19: 3D meteorological modeling with the WRF model =0.0 =0.0 υ θ µ µ υ =1.0 =1.0 _ Source: WRF model. 30 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS The CAMx model is a state-of-the-art photochemical user pre-processed data. The core components of model for simulating dispersion of air pollutants over CAMx include input data for emissions calculations varying scales—ranging from micro (neighborhood) (for example, energy consumption data and EFs), to macro (continent) scale. CAMx is supported by GIS layers, and meteorological data that are then a number of institutions, including the US EPA. The processed by CAMx to result in modeled pollutant CAMx modeling system has a complex modular concentrations and source sectoral contributions to architecture that combines inputs from other those concentrations (Figure 20). modeling systems (such as WRF), as well as from Figure 20: Schematic diagram of the CAMx modeling system Source: CAMx model. As mentioned above, the WRF model was the source layers included in CAMx for this study such as of meteorological input data to CAMx. With regard population distribution, housing density, road to emissions data, emissions are treated in two main transport network, vegetative cover, and so on, ways in CAMx: described in Section 3.1. ി Gridded emissions that are released in each 3D Large stationary sources such as the CHP, for cell of the defined airshed instance, were modeled as point emissions. In contrast to gridded emissions, the point emissions ി Point emissions for which each emitting stack is are associated with a specific location, but the associated with coordinates and a time-varying emission rates are still time-varying. The plume rise emission function. from point emission sources is determined by CAMx Residential, commercial, mobile, nonindustrial, and depends on stack-specific parameters such as small industrial, and natural emission sources were height, diameter, velocity, and temperature of exiting defined as gridded emissions and are characterized gases. These parameters coupled with the ambient by space- and time-varying emission rates. The meteorological conditions provide the individual emission rates are influenced by the additional temporal emission rates of each point source. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 31 Moreover, CAMx has a built-in module for particulate of Transport, National Statistical Committee, and matter (PM) source apportionment to identify the different departments in Bishkek Mayor’s Office sources of PM pollution. CAMx uses multiple tracer were present and provided their feedback. families to identify the sources of primary PM On September 22 and 23, 2022, the preliminary emissions and secondary formation of PM in the study’s results were presented to the civil society, atmosphere. By including secondary formation of PM, academia, and the main development partners CAMx simulates the actual atmospheric chemistry involved in air quality work. Feedback was also and provides a robust source apportionment analysis collected from these sessions. which is an essential tool for decision-making in air quality management. Following the stakeholder consultations, the study’s team embarked on site visits of places of interest This study created emission maps for each of the or for which data availability was limited. The team sources described in Section 3.4, and in this way, the model is flexible to ‘switch on and off ’ certain visited a brick kiln, the dumpsite, and the area sources to analyze the impact of individual sources around the CHP plant and made observations about on air pollution in Bishkek. In addition, having the natural and roadside dust sources outside of Bishkek various emission sources as different layers within City. As a result of the stakeholder consultations and the modeling system allows for assessing ‘what- the site visits in September 2022, additional data if ’ scenarios—the overall impact on air quality of requests were sent to institutions. A second run emission reduction measures targeted at a specific of the modeling was performed after receiving the source. additional data requested. The updated findings of the study were then 3.7. Consultation process presented again to a wide group of stakeholders A significant amount of publicly available data from before finalizing the study. For logistical reasons, governmental institutions, development partners, two separate sessions took place at MNRETS civil society, and global databases were collected for on December 1, 2022—one with the civil society the first run of the modeling. The approach used in organizations, academia, and development partners this study as well as the preliminary findings of the and another one with governmental institutions. The modeling were then presented to a wide range of December consultations attracted even broader stakeholders in Bishkek. stakeholder participation—for instance, the Ministry On September 21, 2022, MNRETS invited the main of Health and the Road Safety Agency were also institutions involved in air quality management to present. The feedback received from those meetings a presentation of the study’s preliminary results. In was used to further fine-tune and finalize the addition to the various departments of MNRETS, modeling—the results of which are presented in the other institutions such as Kyrgyz Hydromet, Ministry following sections. 32 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS 4. PM2.5 Emission Sources Analysis: Results The PM2.5 emissions source analysis builds on the emissions map of Bishkek at a spatial resolution emissions inventory compiled in an UNDP/UNEP of 0.01° (~1 km2), suitable for chemical transport report. The emissions inventory in the UNDP/UNEP 25 modeling. report serves as the initial base for the emissions The resulting emissions estimates are presented in analysis in this study. The emissions inventory in Table 2. Transport emissions account for nearly one- this study further developed the existing emissions third of the total annual PM2.5 emissions in Bishkek. inventory by The second largest emissions source annually, albeit ി Adding unstudied emissions sources such as mostly concentrated in the winter months, is the construction, quarries, brick kilns, and Manas residential sector—26 percent of total annual PM2.5 International airport; emissions. Urban dust (from construction activities ി Mapping emissions sources by location, size, and and resuspension of dust from roads) and industries geographical features using the latest satellite are the two other main emissions sources in Bishkek imagery; and with 20 percent and 17 percent share in total annual ി Creating a spatially and temporally dynamic PM2.5 emissions, respectively. Table 2: PM2.5 emissions estimates for Bishkek, 2018 Emissions source Description PM 2.5 emissions, tons/year Transport Includes all road transport and emissions from the airport 1,737.6 Residential heating Includes emissions from residential heating and cooking 1,424.0 Includes emissions from construction activities and Urban dusta 1,157.8 resuspended dust from roads CHP and HoBs Includes emissions from the CHP plant and HoBs 751.7 Includes emissions from other industrial estates, excluding Industry the CHP plant, quarries, and brick kilns, as well as from 249.2 diesel generators at commercial buildings Open waste burning Includes emissions from the dumpsite 168.3 Total 5,488.6 Source: Original calculations for this publication. Note: a. Windblown dust is a source of direct PM2.5 concentrations, and therefore, windblown dust is not included as an emissions source. Windblown dust is included in the modeling as PM2.5 loads for each airshed’s grid estimated from the global MOZART/WACCM. 25 UNDP and UNEP. 2022. Air Quality in Bishkek: Assessment of Emission Sources and Roadmap for Supporting Air Quality Management. Bishkek and Nairobi. 25 https://www.undp.org/kyrgyzstan/publications/air-quality-bishkek-assessment-emission-sources-and-roadmap-supporting-air-quality-management. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 33 Emissions levels throughout the year are not the winter months. Similarly, urban dust emissions constant—for instance, residential heating emissions are higher in the summer months than in the winter occur only in winter months. Therefore, it is months because of increased construction activity important to analyze the temporal distribution of and higher dust resuspension from roads. Industrial emissions sources. Figure 21 shows that even though emissions have a relatively stable share in total transport sector emissions have the highest annual emissions in the different months of the year. total, residential sector emissions are dominant in Figure 21: Monthly variations in PM2.5 emissions in Bishkek by sector Source: Original elaboration for this publication. In addition to temporally distributing PM2.5 Figure 22: PM2.5 emissions map for Bishkek, 2018 emissions in Bishkek, this study mapped emissions from the different emissions sources at an approximately 1 km2 resolution. The latest year with available tons/yr/grid data before the COVID-19 pandemic was used as a baseline year for the emissions mapping to avoid skewing the spatial distribution of emissions due to the impact of the pandemic—especially with respect to transport emissions during the lockdowns. Figure 22 shows the spatial distribution of PM2.5 emissions in Bishkek for the entire 2018, whereas Figure 23 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. shows the monthly emissions maps. 34 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Figure 23: PM2.5 emissions map for Bishkek, 2018, by month R R R R R R R R R B B B B B B B B B R R R R R R R R R B B B B B B B B B R R R R R R R R R B B B B B B B B B R R R R R R R R R B B B B B B B B B Source: Original elaboration for this publication. As expected, the single largest source of PM 2.5 Bishkek’s airshed occur within the city boundaries emissions in Bishkek is the CHP plant (the black and are along main roads and in residential areas, grid on Figure 22). Other large single sources especially in the north of the city where there is a of PM 2.5 emissions include some quarries and higher number of SFHs using coal for heating. brick kilns. Overall, the majority of emissions in CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 35 5. PM2.5 Modeling Analysis There is no linear correlation between PM2.5 emissions concentrations, modeling needs to be conducted and PM2.5 concentrations. The translation of emissions considering all these. This chapter describes the into concentrations is affected by a number of factors results from the chemical transport modeling using among which are the location of the emissions source, the CAMx system, coupled with WRF meteorological characteristics of the source (height of emissions data, conducted in this study. Information on the release, temperature and velocity of gases, and so dispersion of PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek’s airshed on), meteorological conditions, and topography. and the source contributions to PM2.5 concentrations Therefore, to determine how emissions translate into are presented in the sections below. Figure 24: Modeled average PM2.5 dispersion in Bishkek, by month μ μ μ R R R B B B μ μ μ R R R B B B μ μ μ R R R B B B μ μ μ R R R B B B Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 36 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS 5.1. PM2.5 dispersion reduction and mitigation measures should be implemented for a variety of sources to reduce The spatially and temporally dynamic emissions PM 2.5 concentrations in each month of the year. map was coupled with spatially and temporally dynamic meteorological data layer to allow for high-resolution modeling at an hourly scale. CAMx, 5.2. Comparison with air quality which incorporates meteorological inputs from the monitoring data WRF model, was used in this study. The approach to A general practice in modeling is to compare modeling was described in Section 3.6. modeled concentrations of pollutants with the Figure 24 illustrates the average monthly PM2.5 actual concentration measurements from air quality dispersion across Bishkek’s airshed for 2020–2021. monitoring. The modeling results show a good fit Average PM2.5 concentrations were modeled and are (R 2 = 0.94) with the collected monitoring data which available for each grid of the airshed (approximately suggests that the simulation conducted in this study 1 km2 resolution). closely approximates the observed PM 2.5 levels and dynamics in Bishkek in 2020–2021 (Figure 25). The modeled PM2.5 dispersion in Bishkek’s airshed demonstrates that PM2.5 concentrations peak in the Figure 25: Modeled and monitored PM2.5 winter months, in line with what has been reported concentrations in Bishkek by air quality monitoring networks. In addition, concentrations in most parts of the city during winter are well above international standards. In some months, such as January and December, PM2.5 average monthly concentrations are over 150 µg/ m3 (the dark red areas on Figure 24) in large areas of Bishkek City; such concentrations are more than 10 times over WHO’s daily average guideline (15 µg/ m3), for instance. Moreover, modeling of pollution dispersion is useful for identifying pollution hot spots within an urban area. The modeling results shown on Figure 24 illustrate that the northern part of Bishkek and some areas in the western and eastern parts of the city are the locations with the highest monthly average PM2.5 concentrations. These locations generally include areas with predominantly SFHs using mainly coal for heating. Source: Original elaboration for this publication. The modeling results on Figure 24 also demonstrate that concentrations in the city of Bishkek are over Figure 25 shows that the modeled concentrations the WHO’s annual average guideline (5 µ g/m ) for all 3 are a good representation of all the monitoring months in the year, even in the summer. Therefore, data collected for this study and also capture the to bring the annual PM 2.5 average concentration seasonal dynamics of PM2.5 pollution in Bishkek. The in Bishkek toward WHO guidelines, emissions modeled monthly averages coincide closely with the CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 37 monitored monthly average concentrations. There is monitoring networks, only in the month of February, a bigger difference in the modeled monthly average whereas for all other months, the modeled and concentrations, compared to the average from the monitored concentrations largely overlap. 5.3. Source contributions to PM2.5 concentrations The modeling conducted in this study allowed intensities throughout the year, and therefore, it is to the identification of source contributions to PM2.5 be expected that the sources’ contributions to PM2.5 concentrations (Figure 26). As discussed in Chapter concentrations will also vary in the different months 4, emissions sources have varying temporal and seasons. Figure 26: Modeled source contributions to PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek by month, in µg/m3 µ μ Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Residential heating has the highest contribution to the winter. The contribution of transport to PM 2.5 PM 2.5 concentrations in the winter, reaching nearly concentrations varies from 17 percent in the spring 40 percent in some winter months (for example, to 30 percent in the winter. Transport is the second January and November). On the other hand, most important contributor to PM 2.5 concentrations windblown dust 26 has the highest contribution in all seasons—in the winter, it is second after to PM 2.5 concentrations in the summer when residential heating, and in the summer, it is second PM 2.5 concentrations are generally lower than in after windblown dust. 26 Windblown dust represents particles carried by wind into Bishkek from the adjoining areas such as agricultural and open fields, for instance. 38 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS The contribution of the CHP plant and HoBs combined and resuspended particles from roads have a to PM2.5 concentrations peaks in the winter due to fairly constant contribution to PM2.5 concentrations larger loads at the CHP plant and the operation of throughout the year—varying between 7 percent and the HoBs. The maximum modeled contribution to 10 percent. The contributions of industries, other PM2.5 concentrations of the CHP plant and HoBs than the CHP plant, and open waste burning are combined is estimated at 15 percent. relatively constant throughout the year—estimated Urban dust originating from construction activities at 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 39 6. Emission Reduction Measures’ Impact on PM2.5 Concentrations in Bishkek The modeling system explained in detail in Section studies might consider other approaches, for 3.6 was used to explore some ‘what if ’ emission example, road traffic management schemes that reduction measures, that is, the improvement in the relocate, rather than reduce, traffic activity and ambient PM2.5 concentration in the Bishkek urban hence emissions. area that results from introducing one of several ി Defining the detail of a policy or measure. different policies and measures. The study focused A policy or measure needs to be accompanied on PM2.5 as it is the most significant pollutant in by quantified information on the impact that it Bishkek in terms of health impacts, by some margin. has on emissions. For example, a policy aimed In addition, the study also estimated the potential at improving insulation in houses needs to be reduction of CO2 emissions for each of the modeled accompanied by information on the resulting emission reduction measures. reduction in the fuel used for residential heating and hence the reduction in emissions. Furthermore, spatial distributions and variations 6.1. Approach to assessing the impact of in time need to be considered. In this example, emission reduction measures the number of houses with improved insulation Building on the gridded emissions maps and GIS would need to be defined, and the type of fuel layers for Bishkek established in this study, the that they use for heating and the rollout of the assessment of the impact of emission reduction scheme across several years would need to measures on PM2.5 concentrations involved several be considered. All of this is used to determine additional steps: how the mapped emissions change with time, ി Targeting a source or source sector. There are compared to the ‘base case’. Seasonal variations a wide range of options available to policy makers in emissions would also need to be considered, who wish to improve air quality. The most common because this is needed for input into the approach is to reduce the emissions arising from modeling of the resulting concentrations. It is a specific source or source sector, and this is also important to understand ‘knock-on’ effects. the approach that has been investigated in this For example, a policy that encourages residential study. However, other approaches are possible. heating to change from coal to electricity would For example, increasing the height of chimneys result in lower emissions from the residential or moving industrial sources away from city sector, but the higher demand for electricity centers are options that would improve air quality could be met by increased renewables or in the city center without changing the level increased generation by the CHP plant—clearly of emissions. For this study, we consider only giving very different outcomes. policies and measures that reduce emissions, as ി Determining the impact on ambient these are expected to be the most widely used in concentrations. The revised emissions maps improving air quality in the city. However, future are used as input into the model, which gives 40 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS revised concentration maps as an output. These sector by implementing a policy at different ambition can then be compared with the ‘base case’ levels. The short list of policies and measures is concentration maps to show the improvement explained in the following sections. in ambient PM2.5 concentrations in the Bishkek urban area. The impact of policies and measures 6.2.1. Electricity and heat generation — on the annual average PM2.5 concentration in fuel switching, modernization, and use of Bishkek was used as the main metric for initial renewables prioritization; cost-benefit and implementation Bishkek CHP plant is a large emitter, and there have modalities can be considered at the next stage. been extensive discussions about converting the In this study, we consider a range of policies and CHP plant to gas, so it is sensible to include this measures one by one. There are two reasons for change in the short list. this. First, the purpose of this study is to provide HoBs are also relatively large emitters, and in contrast an indication of which policies and measures are to the CHP plant, they are spread throughout the city the most effective at improving ambient PM2.5 with emissions that are released much closer to the concentrations in the Bishkek urban area. This is only ground level. Hence, it is informative to include them the first step in forming a strategy, which would also in the short list. The policy that has been chosen is need to consider associated costs, the practicalities the conversion to gas from coal which is the policy of implementation, co-benefits and disbenefits, that Bishkek Mayor’s Office has been implementing. political willingness, and so on. In addition to fuel switching options, it is informative Second, policies and measures are not simply to understand the impacts that might arise if there additive, that is, the improvement in air quality from was a general reduction in emissions from both the two or more policies and measures is not always the CHP plant and HoBs because more renewables were sum of the individual improvements, because there used for electricity generation, driven by the climate can be ‘diminishing returns’ or overlap of policies agenda. This assumes that some residential heating and measures. Therefore, while the effectiveness would change from being supplied by HoBs to the of different policies and measures can be shown increased electricity supply from renewables. here, more involved analysis will be needed on the combination of policies and measures after policy 6.2.2. Residential combustion — insulation, makers have given an indication of the types of fuel switching, electric heating, and use of policies and measures that they would be interested heat pumps in including in an air quality management strategy. Emissions from residential fuel use are the largest source of PM2.5 pollution in Bishkek, so several types of policies and measures are included in the short 6.2. Short list of selected policies and list. The modeling system assumes that coal is used measures in SFHs not on the district heating networks (mainly A wide range of policies and measures could be in the northern and western parts of the city), and investigated, and it was decided to short-list several this has implications for the distribution of the across the largest emissions source sectors. The improvements in air quality that arise from policies and measures in the residential sector. intention was to select a range of policies and measures which showed variation across the different Home insulation. It is recognized that there is sectors and also variation within an emission source potential to significantly improve home insulation CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 41 across a large number of SFHs in Bishkek, so low Car emissions control. The car fleet in Bishkek is and high scenarios of improved EE in households relatively old and hence has outdated emissions using coal for heating are included in the short list. control equipment. In addition, it is known that the illegal removal of catalytic convertors is Fuel switching. The most obvious fuel switching commonplace. Therefore, reducing the emissions option is coal to gas, but others are also possible and from cars by improving emissions controls is an have been included. The introduction of heat pumps obvious policy to consider. Low and high scenarios may be seen as a relatively expensive option, but it are included that assume old vehicles are converted delivers large emission reductions in the residential to modern emissions standards. There are many ways sector with only a small increase in the need for in which this might be implemented (legislation and electricity supply. Switching from coal to electric enforcement, incentivization and grants, and so on), heating is similar, albeit with a larger increase in the but these are not considered in this study and would need for additional electricity supply than in the heat need to be investigated in more detail to inform pumps scenario. For each of these three, low and actual implementation. high scenarios are included in the short list. Shuttle buses (marshrutkas) emissions control. 6.2.3. Road transport — traffic management, The extensive use of marshrutkas makes it dust suppression, and emissions control appealing to consider emissions control for this Road transport emissions are a major contributor to mode of transport. Furthermore, implementation the PM2.5 concentrations in the city center. There are might be easier than measures targeted at cars many types of policies and measures which can be because the smaller ownership base could have implemented in the road transport sector, and the their licenses to operate dependent on the inclusion intention of the emission reduction scenarios is to of emissions control equipment. The assumption show the impact of a variety of policies, so that the is that a significant percentage of the marshrutkas relative benefits can be understood. More work would are converted from no emissions control to modern be needed to develop the details of policies, consider standards. the practicalities of implementation, and so on. Bus emissions control. This is similar to the Traffic management/reduction. Improvements marshrutka emissions control, except that it is in road traffic management and planning schemes assumed that all buses are converted to modern could reduce the need for journeys. The impact is standards. assumed to be a reduction in all road transport by Light duty vehicles (LDVs) and heavy goods 10 percent. This is a deliberately simple change, vehicles (HGVs). Similar to the car emissions designed to be illustrative, which might be achieved control, low and high scenarios for conversion of old by implementing more detailed policies and LDVs and HGVs to modern standards are assumed. measures. Road dust suppression. The suspension of road dust 6.2.4. Waste — reduction in waste burning is a not an insignificant source, and there are ways The extent to which open burning of waste contributes of controlling this without impact on the volume of to ambient PM2.5 concentrations in the city center traffic using the roads. But in general, it is challenging has been difficult to determine with any certainty to have a large impact on dust suspension, so the due to the lack of detailed data. Two scenarios are policy assumes only a 10 percent reduction in this included in the short list. The first assumes good source. control of open waste burning, which results in a 50 42 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS percent reduction in burning. The second assumes relative impact of different policies and measures, that there is no open burning of waste and that the independent of implementation timescales. Each of fire at the dumpsite is put out. This latter policy may the policies and measures includes some descriptive not be particularly realistic but gives informative text to provide information on some of the underlying results about the potential impact of banning the assumptions that have been included in determining uncontrolled open burning of waste. the change in the PM2.5 emissions. A color scale is used to emphasize the size of the positive impact— 6.2.5. Greening — regional dust suppression the largest positive impacts are shown in green, Dust from outside the city limits has a significant impact and the smallest positive impacts are shown in red on PM2.5 concentrations in the city center, especially (note that these are still positive impacts on the in the summer months. It is typically very difficult to PM2.5 concentration levels; it is just that they are the smaller impacts of the range of policies and control this natural source, but there are environmental measures investigated). greening schemes, such as planting vegetation, which can reduce the extent to which dust becomes When interpreting the results, it is important to keep in suspended and transported into a city. Low and high mind that the PM2.5 reductions represent reductions in control scenarios are included in the short list. average annual concentration over the entire Bishkek urban area. Certain policies and measures might have 6.3. Results of the emission reduction a larger impact in a certain area of Bishkek than in others. For instance, due to the concentration of coal measures modeling use for residential heating in the northern and western Table 3 shows the percentage reduction in the average parts of the city, switching to cleaner heating options annual PM2.5 concentration in the Bishkek urban area would have a larger impact in those areas, compared that results from the complete implementation of each to the impact on average over the whole city. Similarly, single policy or measure. It is recognized that the some measures might have more pronounced impact completion of most of the measures will require more in a given period of the year—for example, the largest than one year; however, the purpose of the modeling impacts of cleaner residential heating measures are of emission reduction measures was to illustrate the achieved in the winter months. Table 3: Impact on PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek from the implementation of individual policies and measures Reduction in Sector Measure Description annual PM 2.5 concentration (%) Assume same power output, but CHP using modern CHP coal to gas  8.8 gas turbine technology instead of current coal CHP and heat Assume same power output, but all HoBs using HoBs coal to gas  2.0 boilers modern gas technology, not current coal Assume 30% reduction in CHP and HoBs emissions More renewables 3.9 because of adoption of renewables Assume 20% of houses using coal reduce heating Home insulation - low 1.8 needs by 33% through EE measures Residential heatinga Assume 40% of houses using coal reduce heating Home insulation - high 3.3 needs by 33% through EE measures CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 43 Table 3 Reduction in Sector Measure Description annual PM 2.5 concentration (%) Residential coal to Assume 20% of houses using coal change from 5.8 gas - low coal to modern gas heating system Residential coal to Assume 40% of houses using coal change from 11.7 gas - high coal to modern gas heating system Residential heat Assume 20% of houses using coal change to heat 5.4 pumps - low pumps, increase CHP emissions (3%) Residential Residential heat Assume 40% of houses using coal change to heat 13.0 heatinga pumps - high pumps, increase CHP emissions (6%) Residential more Assume 20% of houses using coal change to electric 4.7 electricity - low boiler heating, increase CHP emissions (10%) Residential more Assume 40% of houses using coal change to electric 9.3 electricity - high boiler heating, increase CHP emissions (20%) Complete switch to Complete replacement of coal heating with zero- 29.0 clean heating emission heating Traffic management Reduce all traffic emissions in the city by 10% 2.7 Road dust suppression  Reduce in-city dust emissions by 10% 0.8 Car emissions Convert 20% of pre-Euro/non-cat petrol cars to Euro 3.1 control - low 5, and 20% pre-Euro/non-cat diesel cars to Euro 5 Transport  Convert 40% of pre-Euro/non-cat petrol cars to Car emissions Euro 5, and 40% pre-Euro/non-cat diesel cars to 6.0 control - high Euro 5 Marshrutka emissions Convert 40% of pre-Euro/non-DPF diesel LDVs 1.2 control from pre-Euro/non-cat to Euro VI Buses emissions control Convert all buses to Euro VI 0.2 LDV/HGV emissions Convert 40% pre-Euro/non-DPF diesel LDVs and 3.1 control 40% HGVs to Euro VI Total of all transport Combined impacts of all the modeled transport Transport  13.0 measures combined measures (high scenarios) Complete switch to Complete switch to zero-emission vehicles for 27.0 zero-emission the entire vehicle fleet Control waste open Assume 50% reduction of open waste burning 0.6 burning  Waste burning No open waste burning, Assume zero emissions from dumpsite and open 1.0 including dump waste burning Natural dust controls Assume 5% reduction in regional dust emissions 1.2 - low Greening b Natural dust controls - Assume 10% reduction in regional dust emissions 2.1 high  Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: DPF = Diesel particulate filter; a. Additional electricity demand from the existing CHP was modeled for residential heating measures involving switching to electricity for heating (for example, heat pumps and heating with electric radiators). The CHP emissions depend on the fuel used to generate electricity; b. The greening measures are used as natural dust controls primarily affecting windblown dust. 44 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS 6.4. Emission reduction measures: concentrations down from the current annual average of about 51 µ g/m 3 to anywhere near the Summary recommended WHO PM 2.5 annual average value of 5 Conclusions are given below for each of the emission µ g/m 3, it seems likely that implementing emissions reduction scenarios resulting from the policies and controls on both the CHP plant and the HoBs will be measures in the short list. The metric used in this required. They are also some of the easier sources study for the initial prioritization of policies and to control, because emissions control technologies measures is their impact on the annual average are already available, and they represent a limited PM2.5 concentration in Bishkek. As seen in Table 3, number of individual sources. However, it is the complete replacement of coal heating with zero- appreciated that the example measure given here, emission heating in SFHs would have the highest converting to gas, has political implications. contribution to the reduction of PM2.5 concentrations. This scenario is therefore considered the high- 6.4.2. Residential combustion - insulation, impact priority scenario. However, considering the fuel switching, electric heating, and use of large reductions of PM2.5 concentrations that need heat pumps to be achieved to bring PM2.5 concentrations to the Home insulation. Improving home insulation is WHO guideline values, it is apparent that there is no usually a high-priority measure in most cities. one policy that can deliver the reductions required. It gives both improvements in air quality and a In fact, there is no one emissions source sector reduction in GHG emissions. However, in this study, that could be targeted to deliver the PM2.5 emission the impact is relatively small compared to other reductions required. While an air quality strategy options. This is partly because, unlike many other for Bishkek might propose implementing the most cities around the world, the largest EE interventions impactful or easiest policies in a source sector, it are still available as options because they have not appears evident that the strategy would need to yet been implemented. Improving home insulation achieve significant emission reductions across is an example of a policy which could easily be multiple source sectors. Therefore, a successful implemented in addition to options such as fuel air quality strategy for Bishkek would need to be switching. ‘comprehensive’ in its scope. Fuel switching. As might be expected, fuel 6.4.1. Electricity and heat generation — switching in the residential sector gives rise to fuel switching, modernization, and use of policies which have some of the largest impacts, renewables because the emissions from the residential sector make a very large contribution to the PM2.5 emissions This study considers the impact of the CHP plant on in the ‘base case’. There is relatively little difference the wider Bishkek urban area. The findings from the between the different fuel switching options modeling (Table 3) show that measures to reduce investigated here, and each will have their pros and the emissions of the CHP plant have an appreciable cons in terms of cost, ease of implementation, and impact on the PM2.5 concentrations in the city. so on. However, it is important to appreciate that the Converting the remaining coal-fired HoBs would scale of the policies presented here is ambitious. also have a positive impact on air quality in Bishkek. Delivering fuel switching to, for example, 40 percent Given the very large reductions in PM 2.5 of households that use coal for heating would be a concentrations that are required to bring huge undertaking. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 45 Box 3: Costs of heating options to replace coal in single-family buildings in Bishkek The ongoing World Bank assessment ‘Heating Options Study for Bishkek’ estimated the financial and economic levelized cost of heating (LCOH) for different heating options. The assessment then ranked the alternatives to replacing coal heating in SFHs also considering factors such as operating expenses (OPEX) affordability, availability of the heating technology to replace coal, CO 2 reductions per US dollar invested, and PM 2.5 emissions reduction per US dollar invested. The financial LCOH for all SFH heating options shows that only electric boilers compare favorably to the use of coal for heating in the baseline. This result is largely driven by high up-front capital expenditure (CAPEX) for alternative heating options, which are larger than the substantial fuel cost savings for some of those alternative options. While electric and gas boilers offer the lowest CAPEX solutions, heat pumps— both water-to-water (W2W) and air-to-water (A2W)—offer the greatest reduction in monthly fuel costs (Figure 27). Figure 27: Financial LCOH in SFHs in Bishkek Source: World Bank. The economic LCOH for SFHs, in contrast, shows all options outperforming the baseline use of coal boilers. While gas options still show higher fuel costs and heat pump options still show higher CAPEX costs, these cost increases compared to the use of coal for heating are exceeded by the savings in carbon emissions and health impacts from PM 2.5 . Electric stoves are the only baseline technology which do not have an economically viable alternative, as the potential for emissions reductions is not enough to offset higher CAPEX costs of alternatives. Likewise, new electric boilers outperform all baseline scenarios and could be used to replace coal or gas (Figure 28). 46 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Box 3 Figure 28: Economic LCOH in SFHs in Bishkek Source: World Bank. An alternative heating options ranking, compared to the baseline use of coal for heating in SFHs, was performed considering the results from the financial and economic LCOH analyses, as well as household affordability of OPEX (fuel and operation and maintenance), availability of the proposed technology, CO2 emissions savings, and PM 2.5 savings (Figure 29). For SFHs, electric boilers rank as the top option to replace the use of coal for heating, followed by A2W heat pumps. New gas boilers and W2W heat pumps are the next most favorable, followed by all the other options with included EE measures, which rank lower due to the higher CAPEX costs. However, it should be noted that the higher-ranked options would not achieve the full potential of savings without a baseline level of building energy efficiency, which is not the case in all SFHs. Figure 29: Ranking of heating options to replace coal in SFHs in Bishkek Household Availability of CO2 PM2.5 Financial Economic Overall OPEX the Service/ Emissions Savings LCOH LCOH Rank Affordability: Technology Savings Potential Potential ton g All ranks SFH Options USD/m2 USD/m2 USD/m2 Description CO2/year/ 1,000 USD PM2.5/m2/USD weighted equally New Gas $4.15 $(7.20) $3.23 3.69 0.20 3 Boiler Gazprom New Gas service area $20.96 $(0.33) 55.51 0.82 0.04 7 Boiler + EE W2W Heat $6.23 5(10.47) $2.07 Limited by 2.98 0.12 4 Pump geothermal W2W Heat potential $22.77 $(5.21) $2.18 0.91 0.04 6 Pump + EE A2W Heat $5.10 $(11.86) $2.18 3.07 0.12 2 Pump + EE Anywhere Electric $1.75 $(10.75) 53.06 10.01 0.41 1 Boiler Source: World Bank. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 47 6.4.3. Road transport — traffic to control. As a result, the overall impact on PM2.5 management, dust suppression, and concentrations is relatively small. emissions control Car emissions control. The impact of these Given that transport emissions, including dust measures is relatively large, not only because road resuspension, of PM2.5 are similar to PM2.5 transport is one of the important PM2.5 emission emissions from the residential sector, the impact sources but also because converting a pre-Euro car of road transport policies appears to be smaller by to Euro 5 emissions standard reduces emissions per comparison. However, to some extent, this is due to km by a very large amount. It is expected that some the way the data have been analyzed and presented. sort of policy focused on reducing emissions from Individual policies have been explored for different cars would feature in a citywide air quality strategy. types of road vehicles—cars, marshrutkas, buses, Marshrutka and bus emissions control. The smaller LDVs, and HGVs. If these were considered together, impact, compared to cars, reflects the difference in that is, reducing emissions from all road vehicles, vehicle numbers and hence vehicle-kms. However, then the resulting impact would be comparable improvements in the emission standards of these to high-impact policies in the residential sector. vehicles would probably be relatively easy to However, given that the ownership of different types implement, so emission control policies on public of road vehicles varies, it is convenient to consider transport vehicles remain a sensible consideration the emissions control policies individually here. for an air quality strategy. Traffic management/reduction. The impact of LDVs and HGVs. Falling between the impact of similar this policy provides some useful context when policies on cars and marshrutkas/buses, controlling considering the emission reduction policies. Traffic emissions of LDVs and HGVs also appears to be activity would need to be reduced by a substantial an effective way of having a significant impact on amount to give similar impacts to improving the PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek. Again, it is expected emissions control technologies on vehicles—a clear that some sort of policy associated with reducing reflection of how effective modern emissions control emissions from LDVs and HGVs would feature in a technologies are for road vehicles. This is why comprehensive air quality strategy. policies in other countries have focused on ensuring that new vehicles entering the fleet comply with 6.4.4. Waste — reduction in waste burning the most up-to-date emissions standards, whereas Emissions from open waste burning are relatively existing vehicles comply as a minimum to their small when compared to most other sources. As a manufacturing standards, to ensure that emissions result, even reducing these emissions to zero has per km driven are low. Only after these are in place and little impact on PM2.5 concentrations compared to enforced do countries typically consider restricting other policies. In addition, this type of policy would vehicle flows in cities with congestion charging or be particularly difficult to enforce. low-emission zones. Such policies require emission reductions beyond what is achievable from ensuring 6.4.5. Greening — regional dust the fleet is dominated by vehicles equipped with suppression modern emissions control equipment. The impact of these scenarios on PM 2.5 Road dust suppression. While this is a significant concentrations is modest, but this option does source, the policy assumes only a 10 percent warrant further exploration. The next step could reduction in emissions, because it is challenging be to gather information that shows how practical 48 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS it would be to implement planting and other dust demand for electricity supplied by Bishkek coal-fired control techniques in locations upwind of the city to CHP, there is a small negative impact on CO2 emissions deliver a 5 percent or 10 percent reduction in natural from implementing this measure. In addition, the small dust entering the city. Additional analysis is needed CO2 penalty for this measure is because Bishkek on the origins of the windblown dust coming into CHP uses coal—if the CHP switches to less carbon- Bishkek. The dust might be transported from nearby intensive fuels, then it is expected that even the switch areas such as degraded lands, quarries, borrow to electric heaters will show CO2 co-benefits. pits and agricultural fields, however, due to the The individual modeled PM2.5 emission reduction possibility of fine particles travelling for hundreds measure that shows the largest CO2 emission of kilometers, sustainably tackling windblown dust reduction co-benefits is the complete switch to zero- transport into Bishkek might require additional emission vehicles in Bishkek. The switch to gas of studies to inform national and transnational Bishkek coal-fired CHP is the measure that shows the measures. second highest CO2 emission reduction co-benefit. The combined impact of all transport measures, 6.4.6. Co-benefits and trade-offs with CO2 excluding the extreme case of a complete switch to emission reductions zero-emission vehicles, represents the third largest Nearly all modeled PM2.5 emission reduction CO2 emission reduction co-benefit from the modeled measures show co-benefits in terms of CO2 emission measures in this study. reductions (see Annex 1 for details). The notable Overall, analyzing the impact of PM2.5 emission exceptions are the measures that replace coal heating reduction measures on CO2 emissions demonstrates with heating with electric radiators. Electric heaters that priority sources and hence measures to reduce and radiators are not the most efficient electric heating PM2.5 pollution and CO2 emissions differ. Therefore, devices and can use a significant amount of energy, when designing air quality policies, it is important especially compared to the more efficient electric to not only maximize synergies with climate change heating options—using heat pumps. Since a switch policies but also be aware of and manage the possible to electric heaters and/or radiators will increase the trade-offs. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 49 7. Review of Air Quality Management System (AQMS) in the Kyrgyz Republic 7.1. Introduction located, and this is outlined in Figure 30, but the review also included the roles and responsibilities As suggested in Chapter 6, the modeling of emission of the: Ministry of Health, Ministry of Emergency reduction scenarios demonstrates that a balanced Situations, Ministry of Energy, the Ministry of approach with measures covering multiple sectors is Transport, as well as considering responsibilities at needed to substantially improve air quality in Bishkek. the sub-national level. Hence, it is important to strengthen the overall AQMS The current scope and organizational structure of the on national and local levels to support efficient and existing AQ management functions was compared effective implementation of emission reduction with an idealized model to identify gaps and areas measures. Therefore, parallel to the technical work, for improvement. The most notable were: a review and assessment was also carried out of the overall AQMS in the Kyrgyz Republic, in general, and ി Significant improvements are needed in the in particular in Bishkek. 26 technical tools that support AQ assessment, e.g. the emissions inventory, ambient For comprehensiveness, the key findings from monitoring, dispersion modeling, and health the AQMS review are provided in this report to impact studies. support discussions with stakeholders, particularly with relevant ministries and government agencies ി Significant improvements are needed in for strengthening the overall AQMS, including planning a strategy that is evidence-based. developing an Air Quality Master Plan. Particular components included quantification of emissions under different scenarios to understand the potential impact of different 7.2. Findings from the assessment policies and measures. of the current AQMS in the Kyrgyz ി There is a need to modernize some of the AQ Republic standards, and the measurement techniques The existing roles and responsibilities of different used for quantifying emissions. parts of government that are relevant for air quality ി There is a need to improve the governance management, and the corresponding linkages structure of AQ as a whole, by introducing a were reviewed. Particular focus was given to high-level inter-ministerial committee, so that understanding the activities within the MNRETS AQ management activities across Ministries can as this is where most of the relevant activities are be effectively coordinated and managed. 27 27 World Bank. 2023. The Air Quality Management System in the Kyrgyz Republic: A Review of Institutional Arrangements, forthcoming. 50 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Figure 30: AQ roles and responsibilities of the MNRETS Table 4: Key institutions outside of MNRETS with responsibilities related to air quality management Institution Responsibilities related to air quality management Ministry of Health Responsible for developing air quality standards Kyrgyz Hydromet under Responsible for air quality monitoring, technical capacities for air quality the Ministry of Emergency analysis, modeling and forecasts. Situations Responsible for policies and regulations in the energy sector, including in Ministry of Energy heat and power generation. Ministry of Transport and Responsible for policies and regulations in the transport sector, technical Communications standards and inspections of road vehicles. Responsible for managing a variety of activities at local level such as: urban planning and development, management of HoBs and heating networks Bishkek Mayor’s Office in Bishkek, traffic management in Bishkek, public transport, inspection of smaller enterprises, waste management, and greening. Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Prioritized improvement activities were then in the following chapter. This provides a transition determined, that would improve the existing AQMS, plan, that can be used to help attract external in terms of technical capabilities, policy formation, investment or funding, and also to direct currently management and coordination. These are presented available funds. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 51 7.3. Recommended improvement activities and next steps The review of AQMS has identified several measures recommending actions and measures, indication of and actions, which have been summarized in importance, expected timescales, and the size of the Table 4. The priority actions are mostly related to activity have been provided to enable prioritization capacity building and technical training. While and inclusion in Bishkek’s Air Quality Master Plan. Table 5: Recommended priority activities to develop the current AQMS FOR IMMEDIATE ACTION Policy reforms ി Critically important ി For immediate action, but may take up to 6 months to complete Formation of an Inter- ി Need for high-level oversight Ministerial Air Quality Co- ordination Committee ി At the technical level, to be led by the deputy prime minister, or other similar high-level Kyrgyz Government representative, having mandate for air quality ി No external resources required. ി Critically important. Setting up the Inter-Ministerial Air Quality Co- Establishment of the ordination Committee (stated above) is a prerequisite. governmental roles, ി For immediate action, but may take more than 12 months to complete responsibilities, and structures ി Activity to be led by the coordination committee (above) that support an effective AQMS ി No external resources required. URGENT activities to be included in the Air Quality Master plan Policy reforms Development of an air quality policy team (target setting, policies and measures, air quality planning, and tracking progress) ി Urgent - start immediately after finalizing the Air Quality Master Plan or earlier. ി Critically important. This is a fundamental component of the AQMS which needs to be developed. ി Training and development could be delivered across several months. ി Medium-size investment. ി Urgent - start immediately after finalizing the Air Quality Master Plan or earlier. ി Critically important. This is a fundamental component of the AQMS which Development of air quality needs to be developed. standards and targets ി Training could be provided in less than a month. ി Small investment. Interventions ി Urgent - already started ി Critically important. This is a fundamental component of the AQMS, and Development of the ambient air collecting reliable data with immediate effect is a priority. quality monitoring network and ി Activity to be led by the Kyrgyz Hydromet (this activity has started) data platform ി Training and investment in monitoring equipment has already started. Training is likely to take several months. ി Relatively large investment. 52 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Table 5 Technical assistance ി Urgent - some work has already been undertaken by World Bank consultants, but the main body of the capacity building to start after finalizing the Air Quality Master Plan (or earlier) Development of the air quality ി Critically important as this is a fundamental component of the AQMS, and emissions inventory team and collecting reliable data with immediate effect is a priority. data platforms ി Training and development are best implemented across several annual cycles. ി Medium-size investment, building on the work already undertaken by the UNDP/UNEP and the World Bank. ി Urgent - some work has already been undertaken, but the Air Quality Master Plan is an opportunity to compile a comprehensive air quality communications strategy. Development of an air quality ി Medium priority - a hugely beneficial component of an AQMS, and communications strategy essential for emergency measures ി A strategy could be prepared quickly, followed by relatively quick implementation across 1–2 months or longer. ി Relatively small investment. MEDIUM-TERM activities to be included in the Air Quality Master Plan with investment needs identified in the investment plan Policy reforms ി Medium term - start within 12 months of finalizing the Air Quality Development of source Master Plan or earlier. measurement legislation and ി A high priority capabilities: ി A proposal to update legislation could be prepared quickly but could ി Industry and residential team take a long time to implement. Equipment could be provided relatively ി Road transport team quickly, with training to follow across several months. ി Relatively large investment. Technical assistance ി Medium term - start within 12 months of finalizing the Air Quality Master Plan or earlier. ി Medium priority - hugely beneficial for the effective management of Development of air quality air quality in Bishkek management capabilities ി Activity to be led by Bishkek City Hall within Bishkek City Hall ി Training in compiling an air quality plan would take longer—probably several months. ി Relatively small investment. ി Medium term - start within 12 months of finalizing the Air Quality Development of emission Master Plan or earlier. dispersion/transport ി A high priority modeling capabilities ി Would require training across several months ി Medium-size investment. Source: Original elaboration for this publication. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 53 MNRETS is the primary institution responsible for private sector actors who can be engaged in the the overall AQMS in the Kyrgyz Republic. However, implementation of such measures. For instance, there are various institutions outside of MNRETS governments usually engage commercial banks that are responsible for the implementation of in funding energy efficiency and clean residential the modeled emission reduction measures. Table heating measures. Other private sector actors such 5 suggests the main institutions that might be as heat-pumps’ distributors and installers and gas involved in the implementation of the modeled distributor companies could also facilitate the emission reduction measures and highlights the implementation of emission reduction measures. need for cross-institutional coordination of air The civil society sector could be involved in quality management. communicating the need for emission reduction In addition to the institutional stakeholders measures to improve air quality to the general public responsible for the implementation of emission and to disseminate information about available reduction measures, there could be a variety of funding for such measures. Table 6: Key responsible institutions for the implementation of emission reduction measures Sector Measure Relevance to air quality management Key responsible institutions Replacing the use of coal at CHP Bishkek with cleaner alternatives is Electric Power Plants JSC among the modeled emission reduction (CHP owner) measures with important contributions Fuel switch at CHP to reducing the annual average PM 2.5 National Energy Holding Bishkek  concentrations in the city. In addition, Company CHP and heat replacing the use of coal at the CHP is boilers Ministry of Energy one of the priority measures to reduce CO2 emissions. The conversion of the remaining coal- Bishkek Mayor’s Office Conversion of the fired HoBs will allow for reducing PM 2.5 remaining coal HoBs Bishkekteploset concentrations in the most polluted to gas  period of the year—the heating season. Bishkekteploenergo Home insulation is an underlying fundamental measure to reduce Bishkek Mayor’s Office emissions of both air pollutants and Home insulation CO2 from the residential sector. Home Ministry of Energy insulation also maximizes emission Residential reductions from implementing cleaner heating heating measures. The switch to clean residential heating, in particular to zero-emission heating Bishkek Mayor’s Office Switch to clean as in the case of heat-pumps, is the residential heating Ministry of Energy priority measure to reduce PM 2.5 concentrations in Bishkek. Bishkek Mayor’s Office Reducing traffic emissions in the city Ministry of Interior Transport  Traffic management will contribute to decreased PM 2.5 pollution throughout the year. Ministry of Transport and Communications 54 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Table 6 Sector Measure Relevance to air quality management Key responsible institutions Road dust suppression can be achieved by either reduced traffic on Road dust suppression  Bishkek Mayor’s Office roads or by reduced amount of dust on roads. Improving car emissions control is the Bishkek Mayor’s Office Vehicles’ emissions key transport measure to reduce both Ministry of Transport and control PM 2.5 and CO2 emissions in Bishkek. Communications Transport  Marshrutkas operate a significant part Marshrutka emissions of the public transport in Bishkek and Bishkek Mayor’s Office control hence, improved emissions control will reduce PM 2.5 concentrations. Improving the emissions control of buses running the public transport Buses emissions network in Bishkek is a default Bishkek Mayor’s Office control emission reduction measure for air quality management. Despite the fact that open waste burning is not a major source of air Control waste open Waste burning pollution, controlling this source is a Bishkek Mayor’s Office burning  default emission reduction measure for air quality management. Greening measures do not directly Greening Natural dust controls reduce emissions, but could abate both Bishkek Mayor’s Office PM 2.5 and CO2 emissions. Source: Original elaboration for this publication. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 55 8. Conclusion and the Way Forward PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek peak in the winter Transport is another important contributor to PM2.5 months and are substantially exceeding international concentrations in Bishkek and is the second most air quality standards—for instance, daily average important source of PM2.5 pollution throughout the PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek in the winter exceed year with contributions to PM2.5 concentrations over 10 times the WHO’s daily average guideline ranging between 17 percent in the spring to 30 of 15 µg/m on most days. As much as there are 3 percent in the winter. PM2.5 concentrations in the adverse meteorological conditions limiting the spring, summer, and fall are mainly affected by dispersion of air pollutants in Bishkek, especially in windblown dust from outside the Bishkek area. The the winter, such as low wind speeds and low mixing contribution to PM2.5 concentrations of windblown heights, anthropogenic sources have an important dust in Bishkek peaks in the dry summer months contribution to air pollution. at about 60 percent. Given the well-documented occurrence of natural dust storms in Central Asia This study compiled all available data and and the large estimated contribution of windblown information for the main PM2.5 emissions sources dust to PM2.5 concentrations in the region from global in the Bishkek airshed and mapped those sources studies, additional analyses are needed to identify at a spatial resolution of approximately 1 km2 and the sources of windblown dust in the region and to a temporal resolution of 1 hour. The mapped area discuss possible measures, including transnational, covered a total of 1,800 km2 and included Bishkek to limit the impact of windblown dust on PM2.5 City and the surrounding areas where emissions pollution. sources that might affect air quality in the city are Another source of PM2.5 pollution in Bishkek is located. This dynamic emissions map, coupled power and heat generation—the CHP plant and with 3D meteorological gridded data from the WRF the HoBs in the city. The contribution of the power model, was used in the chemical transport modeling and heat generation sector to PM2.5 concentrations with the CAMx modeling system to simulate the in Bishkek is the highest in the winter due to the dispersion of PM2.5 pollution over the airshed and to additional heating demand. The highest estimated identify the contributions of key emissions sources contribution to PM2.5 concentrations of the power to PM2.5 concentrations. 28 and heat generation sector in Bishkek is 15 percent Residential combustion of coal is the leading in the winter months. Urban dust from citywide contributor to PM2.5 concentrations in the winter construction activities and resuspended dust in Bishkek—accounting for nearly 40 percent of from roads has a relatively constant contribution PM2.5 concentrations in the city in some winter to PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek of about 10 months. Emissions from residential use of coal percent throughout the year. Other sources such as are characterized by low release heights and are industries and waste burning have a contribution of exacerbated by low coal quality and low efficiency about 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, to PM2.5 of the heating appliances in which coal is burned. concentrations in Bishkek. 28 As mentioned previously, emissions (the substances emitted directly from different sources) do not translate directly into concentrations (the pollution the population is exposed to). Therefore, a source with very high emissions might not have as large of an impact to concentrations compared to a source with lower emissions but having more unfavorable dispersion characteristics (for example, low height of emissions release). 56 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Modeling the dispersion of PM2.5 pollution over WHO guidelines. Therefore, a balanced approach Bishkek’s airshed identified some pollution hot spots to air quality improvement that includes policies in the city. The highest PM2.5 concentrations in the and measures across different sectors is needed to winter months were estimated to occur mainly in substantially improve air quality in Bishkek. the northern areas, as well as in some western and Nevertheless, the analyzed emission reduction eastern parts, of the city. Those areas are where scenarios show that the largest improvements in air the majority of SFHs without access to the district quality in Bishkek can be achieved by substituting heating network and using coal for heating are coal used for heating in individual homes and situated. Due to the low emissions release heights HoBs with cleaner alternatives. The single emission and low wind speeds in the winter, air pollution is reduction measure showing the largest impact on contained in the areas where residential coal use is PM2.5 annual concentrations is replacing coal heating the highest. with heat pumps in 40 percent of the houses that Overall, comparing the modeled PM2.5 concentrations currently use coal for heating. The transport measure with the monitored concentrations from both with the highest impact on PM2.5 concentrations in automatic air quality monitoring stations and Bishkek is the increased adoption of newer vehicles sensor networks shows a good fit of the modeled (Euro 5 standard and higher) replacing old, pre-Euro and monitored data. The modeled concentrations standard vehicles. capture both the seasonal and spatial variations of Although some individual policies and measures air pollution in Bishkek as reported by the different show only a small positive impact on PM2.5 air quality monitoring networks. This underlines the concentrations in Bishkek, this does not mean robustness of the conducted modeling and hence that those measures should be disregarded. For the reliability of the study’s findings. instance, policies and measures on stricter emission The purpose of the emission reduction scenarios controls in industry and in public transport are assessed in this study was to determine the easier to implement than policies and measures potential impact on ambient PM2.5 concentrations in in the residential sector and therefore are a viable the Bishkek urban area from a wide range of policies part of any air quality management strategy. On the and measures. The results provide a very informative other hand, the benefits from policies and measures first look at the extent to which concentrations such as greening and restriction in open waste could be reduced, and contextual information about burning have multiple benefits beyond air quality the relative impact of different types of reduction improvement alone. measures and the relative importance of reduction All modeled measures, except the switch to heating measures that could be applied to different using electric boilers/radiators, show co-benefits emissions sources. By identifying the major sources of reducing CO2 emissions. Electric radiators are and comparing the effectiveness of various emission lesser efficient than heat pumps and therefore use reduction measures, the study provides direction for more electricity, currently produced by burning coal further policy-related work in different areas. in Bishkek’s CHP. If the source of fuel at the CHP is Modeling the impact on PM2.5 concentrations in changed to less carbon-intensive fuels, then it is Bishkek from implementing short-listed policies and expected that even this measure will show CO2 co- benefits. measures in different sectors demonstrated that there is no single policy and measure or emission The results from this study laid the technical reductions in a single sector that would deliver the foundations for the update/development of a necessary air quality improvements to meet the comprehensive air quality plan for Bishkek. The study CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 57 conducted analysis of air quality and meteorology economic growth and human capital, and trends, created a spatially and temporally dynamic scenario analysis of the combination of sectoral emissions map, and modeled the contributions to interventions. Moreover, bottom-up analyses in PM2.5 concentrations in Bishkek of different sources. key sectors relevant to air quality management In this way, the most important analytical work in will inform the need for strengthened sectoral preparing an air quality plan has been performed by policies and required investments; this study. ി Analyzing implementation modalities and Data limitations, described in Table 1, restrict the potential improvements to the air quality level of detail for some of the emissions sources. management system, including legislation, There is potential to further refine the data through resources, and capacities, as well as additional efforts and some targeted investments implementation bottlenecks for the agreed in data collection both at the level of the emission policies and measures; and sources and ambient concentrations. This analysis ി Assessing the cost-effectiveness of the agreed should be carried out at regular intervals to inform dynamic policy making. Therefore, collection of policies and measures with regard to achieving more granular data for the key emissions sources set air quality targets (for example, a PM2.5 and subsequent analyses are important tasks for annual average concentration). improving air quality management in Bishkek. All the steps outlined above will help define policies Despite the data limitations, the models in this study and measures to be implemented as a priority. and monitored PM2.5 concentrations show a good A timeline for the implementation of the priority fit, which indicates that the study’s results can be policies and measures would have to be drawn up, reliably used as a technical baseline in air quality as well as responsible entities for implementation, planning in Bishkek. financing, enforcement, and monitoring. Effective In addition, the assessment of the impact on PM2.5 monitoring of implementation of policies and concentrations of selected policies and measures in measures would then inform whether or not there different sectors provides the basis upon which an is a need to redesign policies and measures, action plan including a set of policies and measures adopt different/additional policies and measures, to improve air quality in Bishkek can be developed. alter implementation modalities, and/or procure The next steps for the development of an air quality additional funding. plan for Bishkek are: Such a process to air quality planning truly reflects ി Discussing the relevant policies and measures the dynamic and complex nature of air quality with stakeholders; management and provides flexibility to address ി Agreeing on the need for additional analyses and issues in the implementation of policies and measures on a list of policies and measures to be further aiming to achieve an air quality target. Dynamic air analyzed. An additional study on the chemical quality planning recognizes that there are a number speciation of PM2.5 can be undertaken to assess of possible ways to achieving an air quality target. toxicity of PM2.5 from different sources. Further However, starting with a comprehensive action plan analyses on policies and measures could focus describing how to achieve air quality targets and on: cost/benefit assessment of implementing effectively monitoring its implementation provides emission reduction measures, distributional the tools for decision makers to better navigate the impacts of air pollution interventions on way forward to improved air quality in Bishkek. 58 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Annex 1. CO2 Co-Benefits from PM2.5 Emission Reduction Measures CO2 emissions calculations Figure A 1: Source contributions The baseline CO2 emissions in Bishkek use the to CO2 emissions in Bishkek same activity data as the ones used for the PM2.5 emissions calculations, presented in Chapter 3. CO2 emissions are directly proportional to the carbon content of fuels, and therefore, CO2 emissions in Bishkek were calculated from the compiled energy and fuel data. The largest source of annual CO2 emissions in Bishkek is transport, accounting for over half of the emissions in the city. Bishkek CHP and HoBs are another important source of CO2 emissions responsible for over one-third of annual emissions. Burning coal in the residential sector is another important source of CO2 emissions but, unlike the case with PM2.5 emissions, is not the dominant source. Impacts on CO2 emissions of the modeled PM2.5 emission reduction measures % % As seen from Figure A 1, the priority sources of CO2 and PM2.5 emissions do not completely match. Therefore, the study analyzed the impact on CO2 emissions of the modeled PM2.5 emission reduction Source: Original elaboration for this publication. measures. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 59 Table A 1: Impact on CO2 emissions of modeled PM2.5 emission reduction measures Reduction in Reduction in CO2 Sector Measure Description annual PM 2.5 emissions (%) concentration (%) Assume same power output, but CHP CHP coal to gas  using modern gas turbine technology 9.0 29.0 instead of current coal Assume same power output, but all CHP and HoBs coal to gas  HoBs using modern gas technology, not 2.0 1.0 heat boilers current coal Assume 30% reduction in CHP and More renewables HoBs emissions because of adoption of 4.0 11.0 renewables Assume 20% of houses using coal Home insulation - reduce heating needs by 33% through 2.0 0.5 low EE measures Assume 40% of houses using coal Home insulation - reduce heating needs by 33% through 3.0 1.0 high EE measures Assume 20% of houses using coal Residential coal to change from coal to modern gas heating 6.0 2.0 gas - low system Assume 40% of houses using coal Residential coal to change from coal to modern gas heating 12.0 3.0 gas - high system Residential Assume 20% of houses using coal Residential heat heatinga change to heat pumps, increase CHP 5.0 0.5 pumps - low emissions (3%) Assume 40% of houses using coal Residential heat change to heat pumps, increase CHP 13.0 1.0 pumps - high emissions (6%) Assume 20% of houses using coal Residential more change to electric boiler heating, 5.0 -2.0 electricity - low increase CHP emissions (10%) Assume 40% of houses using coal Residential more change to electric boiler heating, 9.0 -4.0 electricity - high increase CHP emissions (20%) Complete switch to Complete replacement of coal heating 29.0 8.0 clean heating with zero-emission heating Reduce all traffic emissions in the city Traffic management 3.0 5.0 by 10% Road dust Reduce in-city dust emissions by 10% 1.0 — suppression  Transport  Convert 20% of pre-Euro/non-cat petrol Car emissions cars to Euro 5, and 20% pre-Euro/non- 3.0 6.0 control - low cat diesel cars to Euro 5 Convert 40% of pre-Euro/non-cat petrol Car emissions cars to Euro 5, and 40% pre-Euro/non- 6.0 13.0 control - high cat diesel cars to Euro 5 60 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Table A1 Reduction in Reduction in CO2 Sector Measure Description annual PM 2.5 emissions (%) concentration (%) Marshrutka Convert 40% of pre-Euro/non-DPF diesel 1.0 1.0 emissions control LDVs from pre-Euro/non-cat to Euro VI Buses emissions Convert all buses to Euro VI 0.2 0.3 control LDV/HGV emissions Convert 40% pre-Euro/non-DPF diesel Transport 3.0 4.0 control LDVs and 40% HGVs to Euro VI Total of all measures Combined impacts of all the modeled 13.0 22.0 combined transport measures (high scenarios) Complete switch to Complete switch to zero-emission 27.0 51.0 zero-emission vehicles for the entire vehicle fleet Control waste open Assume 50% reduction of waste 1.0 — burning  open burning Waste burning No open waste Assume zero emissions from burning, including 1.0 — dumpsite and open waste burning dump Natural dust Assume 5% reduction in regional 1.0 — controls - low dust emissions Greening b Natural dust Assume 10% reduction in regional 2.0 — controls - high  dust emissions Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: a. Additional electricity demand from the existing CHP was modeled for residential heating measures involving switching to electricity for heating (for example, heat pumps and heating with electric radiators). The CHP emissions depend on the fuel used to generate electricity; b. The greening measures are used as natural dust controls primarily affecting windblown dust. Nearly all modeled PM2.5 emission reduction measure that shows the largest CO2 emission measures show co-benefits in terms of CO2 emission reduction co-benefits is the complete switch to zero- reductions. The notable exceptions are the measures emission vehicles in Bishkek. The switch to gas of that replace coal heating with heating with electric Bishkek coal-fired CHP is the measure that shows the radiators. Electric heaters and radiators are not the second highest CO2 emission reduction co-benefit. most efficient electric heating devices and can use The combined impact of all transport measures, a significant amount of energy, especially compared excluding the extreme case of a complete switch to to the more efficient electric heating options—using zero-emission vehicles, represents the third largest heat pumps. Since a switch to electric heaters and/ CO2 emission reduction co-benefit from the modeled or radiators will increase the demand for electricity measures in this study. supplied by Bishkek coal-fired CHP, there is a small Overall, analyzing the impact of PM2.5 emission negative impact on CO2 emissions from implementing reduction measures on CO2 emissions demonstrates this measure. In addition, the small CO2 penalty for that priority sources and hence measures to reduce this measure is because Bishkek CHP uses coal—if the PM2.5 pollution and CO2 emissions differ. Therefore, CHP switches to less carbon-intensive fuels, then it is when designing air quality policies, it is important expected that even the switch to electric heaters will to not only maximize synergies with climate change show CO2 co-benefits. policies but also be aware of and manage the The individual modeled PM2.5 emission reduction possible trade-offs. CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures 61 Annex 2. Black Carbon Emissions Black Carbon (BC) is an integral part of the estimate that BC might be responsible for 6 percent composition of PM 2.5 and at the same time is an to 16 percent of glacial melting in Central Asia. SLCP. It absorbs solar radiation, influences cloud processes, and alters the melting of snow and BC emissions calculations ice cover. It can thus affect glaciers in the Kyrgyz Republic. However, the impact on glacial melting The baseline BC emissions in Bishkek were calculated attributable to BC is uncertain due to studies not from the compiled energy and fuel data presented sufficiently accounting for natural impurities such in Chapter 3. The main sources of BC emissions are as soil dust and due to difficulties in modeling in fuels used in road transport and solid fuels used in mountainous regions. Nevertheless, some studies industries and the residential sector. Table A 2: BC emissions estimates for Bishkek, 2018 Emissions source Description BC emissions, tons/year Transport Includes all road transport and emissions from the airport 850 Residential heating Includes emissions from residential heating and cooking 350 Includes emissions from other industrial estates, including Industry the CHP plant, quarries, and brick kilns, as well as from die- 250 sel generators at commercial buildings Total 1,450 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Impacts on BC emissions of the modeled PM2.5 emission reduction measures29 PM2.5 emission reduction measures typically reduce in the Kyrgyz Republic is in general dependent on BC emissions as BC is one of the components of PM2.5. the global BC circulation, and therefore, additional Nevertheless, it should be noted that the estimated BC regional and global BC emission reduction measures emissions for Bishkek are 0.03 percent of the global are needed to reduce glacial melting potentially BC emissions. 30 Hence, BC deposition on glaciers affected by BC in the Kyrgyz Republic. 2930 29 Bond, T. C., et al. 2013. “Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: A Scientific Assessment.” J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 118 : 5380–5552. doi:10.1002/ jgrd.50171; Schmale, J., M. Flanner, S. Kang, et al. 2017. “Modulation of Snow Reflectance and Snowmelt from Central Asian Glaciers by Anthropogenic Black Carbon.” Sci Rep 7: 40501; Zhang, Y., et al. 2020. “Effects of Black Carbon and Mineral Dust on Glacial Melting on the Muz Taw Glacier, Central Asia.” Science of the Total Environment 740. 30 European Commission. EDGAR – Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research: Air and Toxic Pollutants. https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/air_ pollutants . 62 Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures CONTENTS Air Quality Analysis for Bishkek: PM 2.5 Source Apportionment and Emission Reduction Measures September 2023