JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT CASE STUDY Job Creation Potential of the Clean Energy Transition JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 1 JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT CASE STUDY Job Creation Potential of the Clean Energy Transition ABOUT ESMAP The Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) is a partnership between the World Bank and over 20 partners to help low- and middle-income countries reduce poverty and boost growth through sustainable energy solutions. ESMAP’s analytical and advisory services are fully integrated within the World Bank’s country financing and policy dialogue in the energy sector. Through the World Bank, ESMAP works to accelerate the energy transition required to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG7), which ensures access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all. It helps shape World Bank strategies and programs to achieve the World Bank’s Climate Change Action Plan targets. Learn more at: https://www.esmap.org. © November 2023 | International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the World Bank, with contributions given by the staff and consultants listed in the acknowledgments. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Contents Acknowledgments vi About this Report vii Abbreviations and Acronyms viii Key Findings x Executive Summary xi 1. Introduction 1 2. Project Description 5 3. Identification and Quantification of Jobs 11 3.1. Conceptual Framework 11 3.2. Methodology and Research Approach 13 4. Results: Employment Effects of the Project 17 4.1. Overall Resultss 17 4.2. Construction-Related Employment Effects 19 4.3. E&S-Related Employment Effects 37 4.4. Theory of Change 44 5. Conclusions 49 5.1. Construction-Related Employment Numbers 49 5.2. Qualitative Differences Between Types of Direct Employment 51 5.3. Limitations and Future Research Need 54 References 56 JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT iii List of Tables and Figures List of Tables Table 1. Financing Components A of the RRFHP xii Table 2. Summary Table of Key Employment Indicators (2013–2026) xv Table 3. Summary Table of Key Differences Between Construction-Related and E&S-Related Employment Activities xvi Table 4. Financing Components A and B of the RRFHP 7 Table 5. World Bank Credits/Grants for the RRFHP 8 Table 6. Direct Construction-Related Jobs of the RRFHP (FTEs/ Year) 17 Table 7. Direct, E&S Related Jobs of the RRFHP (FTEs, LADP Activities Only) 18 Table 8. Detailed Results: Construction-Related Employment of the RRFHP (FTEs/Year, Jobs Years) 34 Table 9. LADP Workers Statistics – During Construction: Rwanda (Ngoma District) 40 Table 10. LADP Workers Statistics – During Construction: Burundi 41 Table 11. LADP Workers Statistics – During Construction: Tanzania (Ngara District) 42 Table 12. Overview of Direct E&S Employment Numbers (RRFHP LADP Only) 43 Table 13. Summary Table of Key Employment Indicators (2013–2026) 50 Table 14. World Bank’s RRFHP Credits/Grants, Budgeted and Revised Amounts 51 Table 15. Summary Table of Key Differences Between Construction-Related and E&S-Related Direct Employment 51 List of Figures Figure 1. Construction-Related FTEs by Organization and Year xiv Figure 2. Project Location 5 Figure 3. Organization Chart NELSAP PIU 20 Figure 4. Direct Employment NELSAP PIU (FTEs, 2013–2023) 21 Figure 5. Skill Level of NELSAP PIU (%) 22 Figure 6. Organization Chart RPCL 24 Figure 7. Direct Employment RPCL (FTEs, 2014–2026) 26 Figure 8. Direct On-Site Employment OE (FTEs, 2017–2023) 28 Figure 9. Split Between Local Employees and Expatriates Working for the OE at the Construction Site (%) 29 Figure 10. Direct On-Site Employment CP 1 (FTEs, 2016–2023) 30 iv  ONTENTS C Figure 11. Spit Between Local Employees and Expatriates Working for CP 1 (%) 31 Figure 12. On-Site Employment CP 2 (FTEs, 2017–2023) 32 Figure 13. Spit Between Local Employees and Expatriates Working for CP 2 (%) 33 Figure 14. Development of Construction-Related FTEs/MW (80MW) and Year (2013–2026) 36 Figure 15. E&S Activities of the RRFHP Project 38 Figure 16. Theory of Change and Employment Effects of the RRFHP 46 Figure 17. Construction-Related FTEs by Gender and Year (2013–2026) 49 Figure 18. Construction-Related FTEs by Organization and Year 53 JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT v Acknowledgments This work was made possible by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) with financial support from the Royal Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Denmark and ESMAP’s Hydropower Development Facility. ESMAP is a partnership between the World Bank and 19 donors to help low- and middle-income countries reduce poverty and boost growth through sustainable energy solutions. The report was prepared by a team coordinated by Zuzana Dobrotková (Senior Energy Specialist) and comprising of Sheoli Pargal (Lead Energy Economist), Elin Hallgrimsdottir (Senior Energy Specialist), Anna Aghababyan (Senior Operations Officer) and Anders Pedersen (Senior Energy Specialist). The work was initiated under the guidance of Rohit Khanna (Practice Manager, ESMAP) and completed under Gabriela Elizondo Azuela (Practice Manager, ESMAP), with overall strategic direction provided by Demetrios Papathanasiou (Global Director, Energy and Extractives Global Practice). A team from the consulting company Eclareon, led by Ulf Lohse with help of World Bank consultant Beatrice Mukasine, collected background material and conducted upstream research for this case study. The team acknowledges the important inputs, insights and assistance received from Norah Kipwola (Senior Energy Specialist), and Laurencia Karimi Njagi (Senior Energy Specialist) and World Bank consultants Bente Brunes, Stephanie Pinnington, Nicolas Fichaux and Kavita Rai. Editor: Steven Kennedy. vi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS  About this Report This report presents the findings and conclusions of a deep dive case study undertaken under a program of analytical work that investigates the impacts of the global transition to clean energy on the quantity and quality of jobs in low- and middle-income countries. Under the program, entitled “Estimating the Job Creation Potential of the Clean Energy Transition,” the World Bank’s Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) undertook multiple streams of analysis: • A review of the literature and commonly used methodologies of investigation • Modeling of economywide job impacts of policies supporting the clean energy transition in selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa • Case studies of the effects on employment of selected World Bank clean energy projects • Additional deep dives into the impact on jobs of closure of coal-fired power plants, and of productive uses of electricity associated with mini grids in Nigeria. Building on the above-mentioned steams of analysis, the program has also produced a highlevel report summarizing its findings and conclusions “Jobs for a Livable Planet: Job Creation Potential of the Clean Energy Transition” and a discussion paper to support project design “Tracking Jobs in Projects Focused on Clean Energy and Productive Uses of Electricity”, providing strategies for tracking and enhancing job creation that can be used in the clean energy projects. The reports developed under this program together aim to support low- and middle-income countries in reaping greater socioeconomic benefits from the energy transition by supporting them in increasing the number and quality of local jobs generated while implementing clean energy projects. Realizing the benefits of the jobs created by clean energy interventions will depend on effective planning and preparation in the early stages of projects and sustained support during their implementation. The reports target multiple audiences, from policy makers to development practitioners and academics. They also aim to familiarize energy specialists with the effects of energy projects on jobs and give them tools that enable them to take account of—and, where possible, maximize—the socioeconomic benefits of the clean energy transition. The reports can be found at https://www.esmap.org/publications. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT vii Abbreviations and Acronyms AfDB African Development Bank CP Contractual partner EE Energy efficiency E&S Environmental and Social ESHS Environmental, Social, Health and Safety ESIA Environmental and Social Impacts Assessment ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program ESMP Environmental and Social Management Plan FTE Fulltime equivalent GDP Gross Domestic Product GW Gigawatt GWh Gigawatt hours IDA International Development Association IEA International Energy Agency I/O Input output ILO International Labour Organization IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency ISCO International Standard Classification of Occupations JPDA Joint Project Development Agreement JV Joint venture j-y Job-years IRR Internal Rate of Return KBO Kagera Basin Organization kW(p) Kilowatt (peak) kWh Kilowatt hours MW(p) Megawatt (peak) MWh Megawatt hours NEL Nile Equatorial Lakes NELSAP Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program NELSAP-CU Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit NELSAP-PIU Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Project Implementing Unit NBI Nile Basin Initiative NRB Nile River Basin PDO Project Development Objective PIC Project Implementation Committee viii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS  LADP Local Area Development Plan O&M Operations and Maintenance OSBP One Stop Border Post p.a. Per annum PAD Project Appraisal Document PSC Project Steering Committee PV Photovoltaic RAP Resettlement Action Plan RE Renewable Energy RoR The Run of River RPCL Rusumo Power Company Limited RRFHP Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project SEIM Social and Environmental Impacts Mitigation SPV Special purpose vehicle ToC Theory of Change t Time TAC Technical Advisory Committee TF Trust fund USD(ct) US Dollar (cent) All currency is in United States dollars (US$, USD), unless otherwise indicated. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT ix Key Findings Direct Employment: The Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project (RRFHP) created direct employment in two main categories: construction and operation & maintenance (O&M) activities related to the project, and jobs resulting from the Local Area Development Plan (LADP), which is part of the project’s environmental and social activities. Job Creation: Between 2013 and 2026, the project is estimated to have created 3,854 direct construction and O&M-related job-years. Civil works accounted for the majority of these jobs (2,623 job-years), followed by mechanical and electrical equipment installation (533 job-years). Skill Levels: Most of the jobs created by the project were highly skilled roles (50–70%), followed by medium-skilled (20–40%) and low-skilled (10–15%) roles. Male workers dominated these roles, with female participation estimated at only 14%. Permanent O&M Jobs: While O&M activities will not employ as many people as construction works, they will be permanent over the power plant’s estimated several decades of operation. Approximately 50 people are expected to be employed for power plant O&M. LADP Activities: The project also created an estimated 4,021 direct job-years through 23 LADP activities. These jobs were primarily generated by infrastructure projects such as road and water infrastructure construction, health facilities, leisure grounds, and schools. LADP vs. Construction Jobs: The employment impact of LADP activities exceeded that of construction and O&M jobs. This is noteworthy because the budget allocated for social and environmental impact mitigation (SEIM) activities was only 6% of the overall project budget, indicating that LADP activities were highly efficient in terms of job creation. Gender Diversity: LADP-associated jobs employed a greater percentage of women (33%) compared to construction and O&M roles (14%). Future Research: Further research is needed to understand the differences in skill levels, pay, and other factors between LADP and direct project jobs. In summary, the RRFHP created substantial direct employment, both in construction/O&M and through LADP activities, contributing to the local workforce. LADP activities, despite having a smaller budget allocation, proved to be highly efficient in terms of job creation and had a more significant impact on female employment. x  KEY FINDINGS Executive Summary Project Context and Description The objective of this case study is to assess the employment potential of the Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project (RRFHP) focusing on the investigation of jobs created by the construction and operation of the power plant (“construction-related jobs”) as well as by activities linked to local area development projects (“associated direct jobs”), project documentation was reviewed and interviews with key project stakeholders were conducted. The results are presented in this report. The RRFHP is located in the Nile Equatorial Lakes (NEL) Region of Africa which is a part of the larger Nile River Basin (NRB) region, covering an area of about 3.3 million square kilometers. The NEL-region consists primarily of six countries, of which three, Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania, are the beneficiary countries of the Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project. The key outputs for the RRFHP are the construction and realization of 80 MW in hydropower generation capacity (Component A), electricity generation of, on average, 448 GWh p.a. and the construction of transmission lines in the beneficiary countries (Component B) as follows: 161 km in Burundi, 119 km in Rwanda and ca. 98 km in Tanzania. Given that at the time of the writing of this study the project is still not completed, socio-economic impacts related to electricity generation could not yet be observed and the employment impact at the end of the construction phase can only be estimated. However, a Theory of Change was developed for this case study in order to show the future impact of the project, especially with regards to employment effects. The project was approved by the World Bank in 2013 based on a number of regional, country- specific, and sectoral and institutional strategic considerations. Periodic power deficits constrained the economic development of the NRB region. Low access to electricity was considered a reason for low business development which impaired income generation and poverty reduction. To address the underlying causes of regional conflicts in the NEL region, advancing social and economic development was seen as crucial. In particular, sub-regional integration and cooperation among the countries of the Great Lakes Region was considered an important contributor to their economic development, indirectly sustaining peace and stability (World Bank 2013). The implementation of a power plant project, encompassing several states of the region, was seen to be conducive to this objective. The project is financed in parallel by the World Bank (Component A) and the African Development Bank (Component B). The present case study only reviewed employment related to Component A, with a total budget of approx. 340 million USD split between four Components A1 to A4 (table 1). JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT xi TABLE 1 Financing Components A of the RRFHP COMPONENT SCOPE AMOUNT %-OF WORLD (MILLION USD) BANK SCOPE Component A1 Civil Works $155.00 46% Component A2 Mechanical and Electrical Works $126.00 37% Component A3 Social and Environmental Impacts Mitigation $22.00 6% Component A4 Owner’s Engineer and Project Supervision $37.00 11% Total Component A $340.00 100% Source: World Bank Restructuring Paper, Report No.: RES43642. The three beneficiary countries receive each an equal share of 113.3 million USD of Component A. The present case study focuses on the assessment of on-site employment effects of the following five key RRFHP stakeholders: 1. The Rusumo Project Implementing Unit of the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program, in short NELSAP PIU, is one out of three project organizations whose focus is on project management related activities, the other two are RPCL and the OE. NELSAP PIU is the project implementor who receives and administers the funds and coordinates between the three governments and all stakeholders involved. Moreover, NELSAP PIU is also supervising the implementation of measures and actions related to the Local Area Development Plan (LADP), a cornerstone of the project’s overall Environmental and Social (E&S) activities. NELSAP-PIU’s activities are financed by Component A4. 2. The Rusumo Power Company Limited (RPCL) is the owner of the Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project. During construction, RPCL’s role has been to facilitate the implementation of the Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project (RRFHP) and to oversee the partnerships with project stakeholders, such as the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB). Once the plant is operational, RPCL will become the operator of the power plant and hence be responsible for all O&M activities after commissioning. RPCL’s activities are financed by Component A4. 3. The Owner’s engineer (OE) is a consortium consisting of two international companies that designed the power plant and prepared the tenders for the main technology suppliers (CP 1 and CP 2). During the construction phase, the OE supported NELSAP PIU and RPCL with overall project management and supervision of the procurement, design, construction, interface management and preparation for operation and maintenance of the power plant complex; and with the coordination of the implementation of the Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) and the Resettlement Action Plan (RAP). The OE’s activities are financed by Component A4. 4. The Contractual Partner 1 (CP 1) is a Chinese construction joint venture that was contracted at the end of 2016. CP 1 is responsible for the civil engineering work which includes all xii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY excavation/earth works, tunneling and concrete for the power plant complex structures, intake works and diversion/power canal, surface powerhouse, access roads and construction site facilities such as offices and housing. CP 1’s activities are financed by Component A1. 5. The Contractual Partner 2 (CP 2) is a consortium made of legal entities from Europe and Asia that is in charge of the mechanical and electrical scope of supply of the project, including the supply, installation, testing and commissioning of: (i) hydro-mechanical equipment; (ii) turbine-generator sets and auxiliaries; (iii) generation substation; and (iv) power complex control and communications equipment. CP2’s activities are financed by Component A2. All jobs created by NELSAP-PIU, RPCL, the OE, the CP 1 and CP2 are counted as direct jobs. The employment effects of another key project stakeholder, the World Bank itself, were not assessed. Methodology and Research Approach All available employment information from interviews and project documents was analyzed and, where needed, complemented with assumptions based on the Consultant’s experience in order to allow for a comprehensive quantification of jobs created by the RRFHP. Full-time equivalents (FTEs) and job-years were used to describe employment effects. For this study, two kinds of jobs were assessed: First, direct jobs associated with the construction and future operation of a new power plant (construction and O&M-related jobs) that are financed by Components A1, A2 and A4 were estimated. Second, associated direct jobs linked to activities of the Local Area Development Plan (LADP), financed by Component A3, were included. Indirect and induced jobs created during construction and by the operation of the power plant, could not be quantified due to a lack of primary data. The information about the employment effects of the RRFHP was split by financing components. Results It is estimated that the RRFHP will have created 3,854 direct construction and O&M related job-years in the time period between 2013 and 2026 at the construction site, wherein the numbers from 2022 to 2026 are mostly forecasts. It was also shown how the employment evolved over time, peaking in 2019 with a total of 953 construction-related FTEs (figure 1). The skill levels could be assessed for the project management organizations RPCL and NELSAP PIU who employed a high degree of highly skilled (approx. 50%–70%) and medium skilled professionals (approx. 20%–40%) and only a low share of unskilled employees (approx. 10%–<15%). In addition to the direct jobs related to construction and O&M, it is estimated that another 4,021 direct job-years were created by 23 LADP activities that are financed by Component A3. These jobs are mostly created by different infrastructure projects such JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT xiii FIGURE 1 Construction-Related FTEs by Organization and Year 952.8 846.1 650.5 574.4 465.3 84.2 78.7 4.0 11.8 15.0 18.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 NELSAP-PIU - Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary RPCL - The Rusumo Power Company Action Program Limited OE - Owner’s engineer CP 1 - Contractual Partner 1 CP 2- Contractual Partner 2 Total as the construction or rehabilitation of roads and water infrastructure, health facilities, leisure grounds or schools. The large majority of employees for both direct jobs related to the construction and O&M activities as well those related to LADP activities were men. The percentage value for direct construction-related male jobs is estimated to be at 86% and for LADP direct jobs it amounts to 67%. Construction and O&M jobs were mostly created by civil works (2,623 job-years). The supply and installation of mechanical and electrical equipment accounted for 533 job-years. Manufacturing of key power equipment and design activities are not included in these employment numbers as these activities took place mostly outside of the project area and no data was available on the supply of non-key components that were most likely sourced locally, such as cables, cement, wood etc. After commissioning, the number of direct jobs will decrease. Approximately 50 people will be employed by RPCL to operate and maintain the 80 MW power plant. Although future O&M activities will not employ as many people as the construction works taking place between 2013–2023, the O&M jobs will be permanent in the sense that they will continue to exist over the lifetime of the power plant estimated to be several decades. In terms of non-construction-related direct jobs associated to the LADP, an important component of the project’s mandatory Environmental and Social (E&S) activities, the case study has shown that the employment impact of activities related to social and environmental xiv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY activities can be enormous but also that these jobs and activities need to be researched in more detail. The reported number of direct job-years (4,021) in this report were created by 23 activities of the Local Area Development Plan (LADP). The employment impact of these LADP activities was higher than the total of construction and O&M jobs. This is remarkable, especially considering that the budget for social and environmental impact mitigation (SEIM) activities budgeted in Component A3 accounted only for 6% of the overall project budget of the World Bank (22 million USD for Component A3 to the total budget of 340 million USD). Therefore, the direct jobs years created with 1 million USD of investment for LADP activities (259 job-years for 1 million USD) is much higher than for direct (12.1 job-years for 1 million USD) created by the construction and the operation and the maintenance of the power plant itself. These different job creation effects may be explained by LADP jobs being potentially lower skilled and less-well paid than the direct jobs at the plant, but future research is needed to substantiate such an assumption. In general, the reported direct employment numbers associated to LADP activities need to be interpreted carefully because only limited information was available for their assessment and it was reported that the management of these activities showed some weaknesses in the past. In addition, due to potential double counting and part-time employment effects, the reported number of jobs created by the LADP activities must be seen as a maximum. Table 2 summarizes the on-site employment effects of the RRFHP as well as the job years that were created for each million U.S. dollar budgeted. In addition to the quantification of employment the available information also allowed for a qualitative comparison of jobs created by the power plant construction project itself and jobs created by accompanying LADP activities, as summarized in table 3. TABLE 2 Summary Table of Key Employment Indicators (2013–2026) COMPANY TOTAL JOB FTE P.A./MW, FTE P.A./ ASSOCIATED JOB YEARS/ YEARS CONSTRUCTION MW, O&M BUDGET MILLION USD (MILLION USD) NELSAP PIU 322.5 0.4 — N/A N/A RPCL 279.2 0.2 0.7 N/A N/A Component A4: Owner’s engineer (OE) 95.7 0.1 — N/A N/A Total direct NELSAP, RPCL, OE 697.4 0.7 0.7 $ 37 18.8 Component A1: civil works 2,623.6 3.4 0.0 $ 155 16.9 Component A2: mechanical and electrical 532.8 0.7 0.0 $ 126 4.2 Total direct (construction- and O&M 3,853.8 4.7 0.7 $ 318 12.1 related) Total associated direct (non-construction- 4,021.3 5.2 0.0 $ 15.5 259.4 related) pertaining to 23 LADP projects1 Total direct (construction, O&M and 7,875.0 9.9 0.7 $ 333.5 23.6 LADP related) JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT xv TABLE 3 Summary Table of Key Differences Between Construction-Related and E&S-Related Employment Activities CATEGORY CONSTRUCTION-RELATED EMPLOYMENT E&S-RELATED DIRECT EMPLOYMENT Importance in terms of overall Approx. 94% Approx. 6% budget Duration of activities Several years Mostly several months Number of activities Few, rather centralized activities that Many, rather decentralized activities that are attributable to a limited number of are attributable to a large number of organizations and suppliers; “easier to track” organizations and suppliers, “more difficult to track” Involvement of international Yes, main construction and equipment Rather limited, activities supervised and organizations suppliers are mostly from countries outside driven by local or regional organizations, the project area potentially with the support of individual international consultants Share of female employment Around 10%, slightly higher for project Much higher than for construction-related management related activities employment, around 30% Please note: 10% is lower than what is observed for the RE industry globally: IRENA estimates that women represent 32% of the RE workforce (IRENA 2019a) Employment creation after Yes, direct O&M jobs for running the power The infrastructure investments can have a project end plant. These direct jobs will also lead to the positive employment impact after the end creation of indirect jobs when companies of the construction project as well, e.g., supply equipment and services to RPCL; health centers and schools will have to be induced jobs will be created by an increased staffed, new infrastructure such as roads level of income in the region. will have to be operated and maintained; it was reported that the regional governments have committed to finance these activities in the future with a recurrent budget that also includes personnel costs Finally, some guidance with regards to the interpretation of the study results and potential shortcomings is given. As a conclusion, it can be said that the RRFHP has already brought a change to the three beneficiary countries: hundreds of people were directly employed by different organizations. Local employees who acquired valuable skills and competencies, thanks to the project, are believed to have better chances on the local job market after their construction jobs will disappear for this project. Direct employment associated with the implementation of E&S activities seems to involve many people, but more research is needed in order to determine how jobs related to these activities can be efficiently monitored and assessed more thoroughly in the future. Endnote Component A3 has an additional budget of 6.5 million USD to finance other, non-LADP 1.  related E&S activities. However, data on jobs created by these other E&S related activities was not available and is therefore not included in the employment numbers of this report. xvi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ONE INTRODUCTION In 2020, the renewable energy (RE) sector employed at least 12 million people worldwide of whom 3.8 million worked in solar PV and 2.2 million in hydropower (IRENA 2020b). To date, that employment opportunity is mainly realized by a limited number of countries, such as China, Brazil, the United States, India and member states of the European Union. Several factors—including the scale of national deployment, the magnitude of industrial policies, changes in the geographic footprint of supply chains and in trade patterns, and industry consolidation trends—determine how and where jobs are created. With the transition from conventional energy to RE and energy efficiency (EE), many more jobs can be created in the transition-related technologies, especially also in those countries that historically lack energy resources and/or electricity generation capacities. In their “Global Renewables Outlooks 2020” report, IRENA estimates that there could be up to 30 million RE jobs by 2030, 42 million by 2050 and that jobs in EE could employ up to 21.3 million people, doubling the number of jobs existing today (IRENA 2020a). Solar photovoltaic would create most jobs (nearly 50% of the total), followed by bioenergy and wind. Construction and installation jobs would account for 47% of the total. These new jobs are expected to exceed the jobs lost in fossil fuels and nuclear energy, generating net job gains. However, as the case of every country is unique, country- and project-specific investigations are required to assess the impact of different types of renewable energy technologies and energy efficiency growth on employment. This case study on job creation under the Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project (RRFHP) is based on project documentation and stakeholder interviews and is designed to understand the experience on the ground in hydropower. This first section of the report presents the context of the RRFHP at its initiation in 2013 and is based on the World Banks’s Project Appraisal Document (PAD) (World Bank 2013). The RRFHP is located in Nile Equatorial Lakes (NEL) Region of Africa which is a part of the larger Nile River Basin (NRB) region which covers an area of about 3.3 million square kilometers. The NEL- region consists primarily of six countries, of which three participate in the Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project. These beneficiary countries are Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania. The project was proposed and approved in 2013 based on a number of regional, country- specific as well as sectoral and institutional strategic considerations, including the following: • Periodic power deficits constrained the economic development of the NRB region. By 2013, electricity demand in the region was increasing rapidly but the limited availability of electricity generation capacity in national systems had already created power shortages in the past. The costs of meeting peak loads on national power systems were high because of dependence on expensive thermal power plants thar run on imported oil. Investments in power generation facilities using regional hydropower resources were seen as a way to increase reliability and lower the cost of electricity. • Low access to electricity meant limited options for the business development necessary to increase income and reduce poverty. About 90% of energy used in many NEL countries was biomass for subsistence, with a relatively small share for productive use. By 2013, power consumption in the NEL Region was 95 kWh/capita/year, merely one-tenth of the annual per capita consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa at the time. Only between two percent and nine percent of the population of the NEL Region had access to electric power JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 1 supply (World Bank 2013). As a result, this region had an underdeveloped manufacturing sector, a large share of the population engaged in subsistence livelihoods based on natural resources (fuel wood, agriculture, fisheries), limited opportunities for modernizing and improving the quality of key infrastructure (water supply, health care, social utilities, etc.), and deforestation. Demand for fuel wood was particularly high in regions without access to commercial energy. Expanding access to electricity and improvements in power system reliability were aimed at supporting the diversification of the regional economy, thus creating opportunities for increased incomes to meet the needs of the growing population in the region (World Bank 2013). • Advancing social and economic development to address underlying causes of regional conflicts was seen as being critical for achieving and sustaining peace in the NEL Region. In particular, sub-regional integration and cooperation among the countries of the Great Lakes Region was seen to be an important contributor to their economic development, indirectly sustaining peace and stability (World Bank 2013). • The development of the NEL had benefited from various extensive evaluations of development alternatives for cooperative investment and trade. These evaluations consisted of a Strategic/Sectoral, Social and Environmental Assessment (SSEA) of Power Development Options (2005), the Comprehensive Basin Wide Study (CBWS) of Power Development Options and Trade Opportunities in the Nile Basin (2011), and Eastern African Power Pool Regional Power System Master Plan (2011). In the context of the Nile Basin Initiative and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP)1, the participating countries had agreed that development of low-cost power generation and regional electricity trade were fundamental to improving productivity and promoting economic growth. These assessments had determined the best regional options for meeting future electricity demand, taking into account economic, financial, technical, environmental, social and political considerations. • All three beneficiary countries had experienced power shortages resulting from inadequate capacity or poor hydrological conditions. Closing the power deficit with expensive, emergency thermal generation had resulted in high generation costs and reliance on government subsidies to cover fuel costs. • The RRFHP was to support key economic, environmental, and social objectives of the World Bank’s Africa Strategy of March 2011 as well as the World Bank strategy to accelerate economic development and promote peace and stability in countries of the Great Lakes Region (World Bank 2011). In essence, the primary objectives of the project in 2013 and previous years were to increase the supply of “green” electricity to the national grids of Rwanda, Tanzania, and Burundi to improve energy access, increase generation capacity, reduce electricity costs, promote economic growth, alleviate poverty and increase welfare and also, by doing so, to contribute to peace in the region. The Project Appraisal Document (PAD) refers to employment effects of the project as follows (World Bank 2013): • “The Project will help improve competitiveness by reducing power generation costs. The resulting growth in business should increase employment.” 2 Introduction • “The project will directly benefit the population in the project area by providing employment opportunities both during the construction phase and during plant operations over the long term.” • “The construction and operation of the hydropower facilities will also generate employment opportunities for local communities, especially during the construction period.” The development progress of the project was to be measured by the quantity of additional hydroelectricity generated. The key results indicators were: (a) The achievement of 80 MW in hydropower generation capacity. (b) The generation of, on average, 448 GWh of electricity p.a. from the new capacity. (c) The construction of transmission lines in the beneficiary countries as follows: 161 km in Burundi, 119 km in Rwanda and 98.20 km in Tanzania. The construction of the hydropower generation capacity and the transmission lines were originally scheduled to be completed by December 31st, 2018, the original closing date for the overall project was December 2020 (World Bank 2014). As of June 2022, the power plant and the transmission lines were still under construction. Endnote The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) is an intergovernmental partnership of 10 Nile Basin 1.  countries for the consultation and coordination among the Basin States for the sustainable management and development of the shared Nile Basin water and related resources. The Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) is one of two investment programs under NBI that facilitates jointly agreed projects with regional impact. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 3 TWO PROJECT DESCRIPTION The following description is based on the Word Bank’s paper “Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project” (World Bank 2019). The Rusumo Falls are located on the Kagera River on the border between Rwanda (Southeast) and Tanzania (Northwest), they are approximately 15 meters high and 40 meters wide and drain to the territories of Tanzania and Rwanda. FIGURE 2 Project Location Source: Project situation map, from Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA), Artelia 2013b. The Rusumo Falls site was identified as a potential area for hydropower generation in the 1970s to address inadequate energy supply that was already apparent by then. The implementation was however not forthcoming for a number of reasons, including lack of commitment from the partner states, lack of investment finance, civil conflict as well as due to the absence of a joint institution to coordinate the project. In 1977, the Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project (RRFHP) was conceived under the regional transboundary organization, the Kagera Basin Organization (KBO). One of the key projects commissioned by KBO was to conduct a study on the use of hydropower at Rusumo Falls on the Kagera River and the environmental and commercial JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 5 implications of such a project. The activities for the project were to be kicked-off with a financing proposal for the development of the Rusumo power project, which was scheduled to be submitted in June 1995, but was cancelled following the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. The idea was revived in 2006 when the ministers of the three beneficiary countries of Rwanda, Tanzania and Burundi signed a Joint Project Development Agreement (JPDA) to conduct optimization and feasibility studies. The three countries jointly contracted the Coordination Unit of NELSAP (NELSAP-CU) to coordinate the development of studies and later the implementation of the RRFHP. As such, NELSAP-CU provided a platform for regular dialogue and information exchange between the three governments and created a favorable environment for joint investment. The three countries faced similar challenges such as energy deficits that limit economic development and low access to electricity, which would have been more of a catalyst for increasing income and reducing poverty. The feasibility and design studies of the project, as well as the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) and the Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) were carried out and revised several times when the scope of the studies was changed, and different technical hydropower solutions were considered. Finally, a Run of River (RoR) scheme was adopted. Such a hydroelectric system uses the flow energy of a river to generate electricity (Energy Education 2022). This technical solution was selected due to the findings related to the magnitude of environmental and social impacts, especially those related to the involuntary resettlement of local communities. The Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) and the Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) were completed in March 2013 and the feasibility and design studies of the project for the Intermediate Development Scheme (IDS) were completed in 2012 and adapted to the Run of River technical solution in 2013. NELSAP-CU mobilized grants of 7.72 million USD (Trust Fund (TF) -57297) from the World Bank for the preparation of the project, which was key to achieving financial closure, and assisted the three partner states in detailed project preparation to ensure international best practices and meet the various requirements of both the World Bank and the partner states. In April 2013, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania established and created, a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) for the project under NELSAP-CU, called the Rusumo Power Company Limited (RPCL). This company is jointly owned by the three countries and shall serve as utility/ institutional mechanism for the co-management of power generation. RPCL was registered in Rwanda and Tanzania in November 2013. Also in 2013, the power plant project was officially started with the signing of a number of agreements, most importantly the Project Shareholders Agreement (SHA), Implementation Agreement (IA) and the Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). In January 2014, a Project Implementation Support Agreement (PISA) was signed between RPCL, the project owner, and the implementation agency, NELSAP-CU, establishing the relationship between the Implementing Agency and the Owner. NELSAP-CU was mandated by the three countries through the special purpose vehicle (RPCL) to implement the RRFHP during the preparation and construction phase. NELSAP-CU is doing so through the Rusumo Project Implementing Unit (PIU), NELSAP-PIU. 6 Project description Both the International Development Association (IDA), the World Bank’s lending arm that supports the world’s poorest countries, and the African Development Bank became the funders of the project1. The RRFHP consists of two main components, the construction of the 80 MW power plant (Component A) and the construction of three power transmission lines, one between the power plant and each of the three countries (Component B). The board approval date was August 6th, 2013 (World Bank 2014). The overall financing of all project components is shown in table 4. TABLE 4 Financing Components A and B of the RRFHP COMPONENT SCOPE FINANCED BY AMOUNT %-OF WORLD COVERED BY (MILLION USD) BANK SCOPE THIS CASE STUDY? Component A1 Civil Works World Bank (IDA) $155.00 46% Yes Component A2 Mechanical and Electrical World Bank (IDA) $126.00 37% Yes Works Component A3 Social and Environmental World Bank (IDA) $22.00 6% Yes Impacts Mitigation Component A4 Owner’s Engineer and World Bank (IDA) $37.00 11% Yes Project Supervision Total Component A World Bank (IDA) $340.00 100% Yes Component B Transmission Lines AfDB $128.60 0% No Total Component B AfDB $128.60 0% No Total Components   $468.60 73% A and B Source: World Bank Restructuring Paper, Report No.: RES43642. Component A, financed by the World Bank (IDA), was further sub-divided into four Components A1-A4 (Artelia 2013b): • Component A1, Civil Works: all excavation/earth works, tunneling and concrete for the power plant complex structures, including a barrage and gated spillway, intake works and diversion/power canal, surface powerhouse, access roads and construction site facilities such as offices and housing. • Component A2, Mechanical and Electrical Works: supply, installation, testing and commissioning of: (i) hydro-mechanical equipment; (ii) turbine-generator sets and auxiliaries; (iii) generation substation; and (iv) power complex control and communications equipment. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 7 • Component A3, Social and Environmental Impacts Mitigation: financing the Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP), the Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) including cash compensation to approximately 664 project affected households and implementation of the associated Livelihood Restoration Program (LRP) and the Local Area Development Plan (LADP). The LADP is worth approx. 15.5 million USD, thereby making up around 70% of the overall A3 amount. • Component A4, Owner’s Engineer (OE) and project supervision: financing an OE to assist the project implementing entity with: (i) overall project management and supervision of the procurement, design, construction, interface management and preparation for operation and maintenance of the power plant complex; and (ii) coordination of the implementation of the ESMP and RAP. This Component also finances staff costs to support the setup operations of the RPCL and NELSAP PIU including a project manager, senior engineers (civil, electrical, and mechanical), a quantity surveyor, a safeguards team, a procurement specialist, a financial management specialist, accounts and logistics assistant, a communications specialist and other technical staff. In addition, this Component also finances equipment, capacity-building, and monitoring/evaluation activities of the project. The present case study only covers Component A and its four financing Components A1–A4, which add-up to a total amount of approximately 340 million USD. This amount is split equally between the three beneficiary countries so that each one receives funding of 113.3 million USD. The split between credits and grants, however, differs by country and is shown in table 5. For instance, while the Rwandan funding is composed of a credit and a grant of 56.65 million USD each, the amount paid to Burundi is a 100% grant. TABLE 5 World Bank Credits/Grants for the RRFHP CREDIT/GRANT NUMBER COUNTRY COMMITMENT (MILLION USD) IDA52950 Rwanda $56.65 IDA52960 Tanzania $113.30 IDAH8720 Burundi $113.30 IDAH8730 Rwanda $56.65 Total Component A credits/grants   $339.90 Source: World Bank 2020. The approval of the project took place on August 6th 2013 and the effectiveness dates were on July 10th, 2014 for Rwanda’s credit and grant and one day later, on July 11th, for the grant to Burundi and the credit to Tanzania (World Bank 2022; 2022). The planning and procurement processes for the main suppliers of Components A1, A2 and A4 were initiated 8 Project description after the approval date and the supply contract with the owner’s engineer (OE, Component A4), responsible mainly for project management, planning and supervision of the power plant construction, was awarded to two companies, one from Canada and one from France, in April 2014. The selected OE assisted NELSAP-PIU unit in tendering and selecting the two main suppliers, • for civil works (A1, accounting for 46% of the monetary value of the project) and • for the mechanical and electrical works (A2, accounting for 37% of the monetary value of the project). The civil works were awarded to a Chinese Joint Venture (JV), and the mechanical and electrical works to the German and Indian subsidiaries of a multinational company specialized in the supply of hydraulic power generation equipment. Agreements with both suppliers were signed in November 2016. These two main suppliers are referred to as contractual partners (CP). While CP 1 is in charge of civil works, financed by Component A1, and CP 2 is responsible for mechanical and electrical works, financed by Component A2. With the three main suppliers, the OE, CP 1 and CP 2, on board, construction works started in February 2017 and were planned to be completed after 36 months, in February 2020. This was already late compared to the original date for the completion of the power plant (December 31st, 2018) and overall project closure (December 31st, 2020) (World Bank 2014). This delay, and future delays, were caused by several unplanned events such as late mobilization of personnel, financial issues, coordination needs between the different parties, technical issues, and also the Covid-19 pandemic. The official closing date for the project is now March 31st, 2023, which is also the end target date for the construction of the generation capacity (World Bank 2022). Still, some activities such as commissioning of the power plant could also take place after this date in 2023. Endnote The IDA was established in 1960 with the objective to help the world’s poorest countries 1.  to reduce poverty by providing zero to low-interest loans (called “credits”) and grants for programs and projects that boost economic growth, reduce inequalities, and improve people’s living conditions (IDA n.d.). JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 9 THREE IDENTIFICATION AND QUANTIFICATION OF JOBS 3.1. Conceptual Framework This study focuses on the assessment of actual employment effects at the RRFHP construction site to date and on the forecast of employment effects in the near future once the project enters operations. The study assesses formal direct employment effects of the project whereby the following two types of jobs are distinguished: 1. direct jobs related directly to the construction and the O&M activities of the project, 2. direct jobs that were created by the Local Area Development Plan (LADP) which is an important part of the project’s overall E&S activities. Indirect, induced, and productive use labor were not assessed for this case study: indirect and induced jobs are usually calculated with the help of input/output tables which are, if at all, only available on the national level but not for single projects. This being said, it needs to be added that the RRFHP has surely created indirect and also induced employment opportunities already but based on the available data for this case study, these effects could not be quantified. For example, the employment created by the manufacturing of key equipment, e.g., the electrical and mechanical power equipment supplied by CP 2, should be counted as “indirect labor”. A very-high level estimate from the literature suggests that for RE overall “the inclusion of indirect jobs would typically increase job numbers by 50–100%, while the inclusion of both indirect and induced jobs could increase job numbers by 100–350%” (Rutovitz et al 2015). Productive use labor can be assessed with the help of household surveys. Also, many of the indirect, induced and productive -use employment effects, albeit not all, will only be observable once the project enters operation. The assessed effects in this study are gross employment effects. However, as the Rusumo Falls power plant is not constructed to replace existing power generation capacity but rather to improve the overall electricity supply situations in the three beneficiary countries, the gross employment effects of the RRFHP should be comparable to the net employment effects. Still, there may also be some job losses associated with some of the desired outcomes of the project. For instance, given the missing or limited electricity access in the region, people have been relying on bio fuels. If successful, the new hydro power plant may reduce the demand for fuel wood, which will negatively impact people who have earned all or parts of their income from this natural resource. When looking at the value chain of a project in general, activities related to manufacturing, installation, and construction as well as to operation and maintenance (O&M) can be distinguished. This distinction is important as their drivers for job growth are different: manufacturing and construction-related jobs are temporary and driven by one-time activities while O&M jobs are continuous and driven by installed capacity. For this study, the employment created by manufacturing was not assessed. Main components manufactured for this project include the turbine and the related power equipment which are supplied by CP 2. These components were manufactured on the premises of the supplier, mainly in Asia. This case study focuses on the on-site employment effects in the three beneficiary countries. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 11 Generally speaking, in order to quantify employment and to qualitatively describe green jobs, e.g., in RE related projects, different methodologies are described in the literature. This paragraph does not restate all details of the existing literature but simply presents the most relevant aspects of estimating employment effects to provide a sound understanding of what type of employment is assessed with what kind of methodologies. The International Labor Organization (ILO) distinguished in their practitioner’s guide “Assessing green jobs potential in developing countries” the following three methods used to estimate environment-related employment (ILO 2011): • Business surveys: assessing employment numbers and qualitative employment criteria by surveying companies. • Employment factor or multiplier approach: assessing jobs by multiplying the number of jobs created for a unit of a market size by the market size. Jobs are counted as full-time equivalents (FTEs) which corresponds to a person working full-time. The data required for this approach is based on data collection and literature review. The job multiplier is applied to a specific market size. • Input/Output tables: a statistical method to calculate the interdependencies between different sectors of an economy. Moreover, there are also computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, a class of economic models which use actual economic data to estimate how an economy might respond to changes in policy, technology or other external factors. In addition to the selected methodology other dimensions which again may be different for each country can be taken into account, for instance: Type of employment: • Formal employment: those who are “officially” employed, earn a salary and contribute fully to the social security systems of a country • Informal employment: those who do not have an employment contract and do not contribute fully to the social security systems of a country but may still earn income based on an activity Gross and net employment: • Gross employment looks at the number of jobs created by a specific project or a specific technology. • Net employment assesses the number of jobs created and in addition the number of jobs displaced due to the introduction or expansion of a specific technology. Employment categories: • Direct labor: Those persons who, if asked where they work, would answer: “I am directly employed or contracted by the project organization that is building a renewable energy installation.” The ILO defines direct employment as follows: “employment created directly by the infrastructure investment project including all workers directly recruited by the main contractor 12 Identification andquantification of jobs and subcontracts, construction supervisor and project manager” (ILO 2011). Although not explicitly mentioned by the ILO, jobs created by the investment into an infrastructure project that are not dedicated to the construction of the infrastructure itself but rather to the implementation of accompanying E&S programs can be counted as direct jobs as well. • Indirect labor: Those persons who, if asked where they work, would answer: “I am not directly employed or contracted by the project organization that constructs new infrastructure such as, for example, a renewable energy power plant. However, the company I work for supplies products or services to that project organization, so I do indirectly benefit from the infrastructure investment.” • Induced labor: Those persons who, if asked where they work, would answer: “I am not directly employed by the project organization. I also do not supply products or services to these organizations. However, I earn parts of my income by selling products or services to the people employed by the project or by their suppliers. The products or services I sell are not specific to the project.” • Productive use of electricity labor: Those persons who, if asked where they work, would answer: “I am not directly employed by the project organization and I also do not work for suppliers of project specific products or services. I also do not supply products or services to these organizations and I do not earn parts of my income by selling related products or services to the people employed by an RE project or by their suppliers. However, thanks to the (electricity produced by) the project, I have access to (additional) electricity that I did not have before or could not get, at least not for the same price, from another source. I use this electricity in productive way to generate additional income (e.g., it powers machinery used for my production).” The boundaries between these units of measurement are fluid and the perspective plays a role in being able to categorize employees in one category rather than in another. 3.2. Methodology and Research Approach This study aims to quantify and describe the on-site direct job impacts of the RRFHP based on project documents and interviews. The documents reviewed include information and graphs sent by the interviewees as well as publicly available project documentation of the World Bank (World Bank n.d.). The reports were scanned specifically for quantitative data that would allow for the estimation of past, present and (planned) future employment of the Rusumo Falls project. The interviews were conducted with the following 2 objectives: 1. Learn about the project in general (roles and responsibilities) and the employment situation at different points in time. 2. Receive documentation including employment related information, both quantitative and qualitative. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 13 Interviews were conducted with representatives from the following organizations: • NELSAP-PIU • RPCL and • The Owner’s Engineer The collection of information, supported by a local consultant, was based on a detailed questionnaire. All information received was analyzed and, where needed, complemented with assumptions about the quantification and distribution of jobs. For instance, while some project organizations provided detailed information about the gender split of their employees, only a high-level estimate for this split was available for other organizations. In order to capture those different levels of detail for the overall project, this high-level estimate for one organization was applied across the entire project lifetime. Full-time equivalents (FTEs) and job-years were used to quantify the employment effect: Both terms can be used interchangeably in this report. A job-year corresponds to one person working full-time for a year. A person working full- time for a year may also be called an FTE. FTEs take into account that a certain number of employees are not working on the project on a full-time basis or during an entire year. For example, an employee who works fulltime on a project but only joins after 6 months will be counted as 0.5 FTEs in that specific year1. The term “job-years” has been used in order to describe the number of cumulated jobs created by the project over time. The alternation between FTEs and job-years follows the distinction between annual employment and employment across multiple years. As such, if a person remains employed for two consecutive years (e.g., 2019 and 2020), this will involve one FTE in 2019, one FTE in 2020 and two job-years across 2019–2020. Endnote 6 months 1. 1 employee working fulltime * = 0.5 FTE = 0.5 job − years. 12 months 14 Identification andquantification of jobs FOUR RESULTS: EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF THE PROJECT 4.1. Overall Results It is estimated that the RRFHP construction project will have created 3,854 direct construction and O&M related job-years in the time period between 2013 and 2026, whereby the numbers from 2022 to 2026 are forecasts. These jobs were financed under the A1, A2 and A4 Components of the World Bank (IDA) project. This employment of construction-related, on-site jobs peaked in 2019 when 953 FTEs were working at the construction site. While construction-related jobs are temporary and will no longer be needed after project completion, 51 persons are planned to be needed permanently for O&M activities over the lifetime of the power plant. In addition, another 4,021 non-construction-related direct job-years were created by 23 LADP activities which account for about 70% of the overall amount of the Component A3 budget related to social and environmental impact mitigation (World Bank 2019). These jobs were mostly created between 2019 and 2022. The large majority of both construction and LADP jobs were occupied by men. The percentage value for direct male jobs in construction is estimated to be at 86%, and for direct jobs created by LADP activities it is lower, at 67%. Table 6 presents the results for direct construction-related jobs, while table 7 shows the direct jobs attributed to the LADP activities. TABLE 6 Direct Construction-Related Jobs of the RRFHP (FTEs/Year) PROJECT (CONSTRUCTION AND DESIGN) PERIOD O&M (GENERAL PROCUREMENT NOTICE JULY 2013) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 TOTAL Total construction-related labor per year (components A1, A2 and A4), onsite only Total Jobs held by men 2  9 11 13 74 524 873 775 593 387 34 11 11 11 3,329 Jobs held by women 2  3  4  5 10  50  79  71  57 40  5  1  1  1 330 Unclear/open/not 1 — — — — — — —   1 38 39 39 39 39 195 yet defined Total labor (job 4 12 15 18 84 574 953 846 650 465 79 51 51 51 3,854 years) Legend: 2013–2021 Construction & design period; data based on actual numbers 2024–2026 O&M period, data based on forecasts 2022 Construction period; data (partially) based on forecasts 1.0 Actual employment, recorded 2023 Construction and O&M period, data based on forecasts 1.0 Planned future employment Source: Interviews and project documentation. Note: The gender was defined as “unlcear/open/not yet defined” in case the respective information was not communi- cated or was incomplete or a position was still to be awarded and could be filled by either a male or a female employee in the future: this is why the “unlcear/open/not yet defined” category increases for the forecasted numbers (2022–2026). JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 17 TABLE 7 Direct, E&S Related Jobs of the RRFHP (FTEs, LADP Activities Only) COUNTRY/PROJECT NUMBER OF NUMBER OF NUMBER OF JOBS TOTAL JOBS HELD BY JOBS HELD BY FOR WHICH GENDER FTES MEN (FTES) WOMEN (FTES) IS UNKNOWN (FTES) Rwanda Construction of 28.7 km of mixed water pipeline  1.  483 295 10 788 Rehabilitation of Kigabiro – Rurenge – Gatore  2.  99 40 6 144 feeder road Construction of 33km of Gituku-Murama water  3.  452 199 8 659 supply system Burundi Construction of Rugando health center  4.  53 33 8 95 Construction of Murore training center  5.  33 20 7 61 Rehabilitation of and extension of water systems in  6.  167 83 13 263 Busoni Commune (39 km) Construction of Bugoma health center  7.  27 3 7 37 Construction of Ruzo health center  8.  35 23 6 64 Rehabilitation of and extension of water systems in  9.  250 100 13 363 Busoni Commune (39 km) 10. Construction of Giteranyi head office 30 20 5 55 Bamboo and agroforestry tree plantation 11.  237 112 3 352 Tanzania Construction of Rusumo Water Project 12.  40 8 11 59 Construction of Rusumo health center 13.  133 58 13 205  ehabilitation of 2 workshops; b Construction 14. a) R 190 57 25 272 of playing ground for football, netball & volleyball, c) Fence construction for the college Construction of Lukole health centre 15.  39 10 8 57 Construction at Mumiterama Secondary School 16.  46 27 5 78 Construction at Rusumo Primary School 17.  38 18 5 61 Construction at Kyenda Dispensary 18.  17 13 5 34 Rehabilitation and extension of Water Supply 19.  232 11 18 260 Projects at different villages Construction at Ngoma Primary School 20.  18 4 4 26 Construction at Rusumo Secondary School 21.  17 3 4 24 Construction of Makugwa P/R School 22.  20 12 4 36 Construction of Bukiriro Secondary School 23.  19 8 4 30 TOTAL 2,673 1,157 191 4,021 Source: Interviews and project documentation. Details about these numbers and additional qualitative information are presented in the following sections. 4.2. Construction-Related Employment Effects i) NELSAP PIU The first documents in the public World Bank project repository related to the RRFHP date back to the year 2007 (World Bank n.d.). As stated before, the project was already discussed in the 1970s. When papers are written and discussions take place in a professional context, these activities may already be classified as “employment” effect. However, no information about the time spent and the number of people involved in the project before the official start in 2013/2014 was available, so these “early” employment effects associated with a hydropower plant at the Rusumo Falls could not be assessed. NELSAP-PIU is one out of three project organizations whose focus is on project management related activities, the other two are RPCL and the OE. NELSAP PIU is the project implementor who receives and administers the funds and coordinates between the three governments and all stakeholders involved. In more detail, NELSAP PIU takes care of the following activities: • Project Management • Finance and Administration Department (Finance, HR, Office management & Logistics) • Procurement • Social & Environmental Safeguards • Engineering (civil & electromechanical) • Legal Matters • Communication • Internal Audit • Internship program JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 19 NELSAP PIU is headed by a Project Manager who reports to NELSAP’s Regional Coordinator. Other functions and responsibilities are shown in Figure 3. FIGURE 3 Organization Chart NELSAP PIU RPCL board of directors Managing Project steering director committee NELSAP regional coordinator Internal auditor Project manager HR officer Administrative assistants (2) Drivers (10) Finance Procurement Communication Lead environmental Civil Electromechanical Legal officer officer officer and social engineer engineer specialist safeguards specialist Financial Procurement Social development Social resettlement Environmental accountants (2) assistants (2) and resettlement officer officer officer Resettlement Environmental assistant inspectors (2) Source: NELSAP-PIU. 20 Results: Employment effects of the project The employment information of the project implementation unit of NELSAP starts in 2013 when 8 persons at NELSAP worked on the RRFHP. Given that the project was officially started in July of that year, the number of job-years attributable to the 8 employees is 4 (8 people working fulltime for half a year). The number of employees increased steadily until 2019 when it peaked with a total of 50. Starting in 2018 until now (June 2022), NELSAP PIU also lists their interns who work for the project. This number is stable at 15 persons. Approximately 76% of NELSAP PIU employees are men and 23% are women; for the remaining 1% the gender information was incomplete. NELSAP PIU’s employment profile for the period 2013 to 2024 is shown in Figure 4. FIGURE 4 Direct Employment NELSAP PIU (FTEs, 2013–2023) 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 44.0 20.0 17.0 14.0 12.5 11.0 4.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Open/not yet defined Jobs held by women Jobs held by men Total direct jobs JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 21 The project implementation unit will no longer be active once the construction project is finalized and the power plant will become operational (planned for 2023). Therefore, no further employment is shown for NELSAP beyond 2023. O&M activities of the hydropower plant will be assumed by RPCL who will employ a similar number of people as NELSAP between 2019 and 2022, with around 50 employees. The PIU staff is split between different locations: NELSAP’s headquarters are located in Kigali, some staff are located in Rwanda in the Kirehe District, others work at premises of RPCL and there are also employees located in the Ngara district in Tanzania. Moreover, there is a liaison office near the Rusumo One Stop Border Post (OSBP), a one-stop border crossing from Tanzania to Rwanda, as well as at the Powerhouse Residential Campsite which is located at 5 km from OSBP. Figure 5 shows the qualification of the staff working for NELSAP PIU (based on a total of 43 employees). FIGURE 5 Skill Level of NELSAP PIU (%) PhD 2% Master 23% Technicians 26% Graduates 40% Support staff 9% 22 Results: Employment effects of the project When using the ILO’s current version of the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08), the jobs done by persons holding a PhD or a Master degree as well as the technicians could be classified as occupations requiring a high skill level (51% of the jobs at NELSAP PIU), the jobs done by graduates as occupations requiring a medium skill level (40%) and the jobs done by support staff as occupations requiring a low skill level (9%) (ILO, 2012). NELSAP’s salary levels are defined in the NBI/NELSAP Human Resources Manual, an individual salary is determined by the position and by negotiations. One specific feature of working for NELSAP is that employment contracts are limited to 3 years and can only be renewed once, meaning that the maximum time of employment with NELSAP is six years. This regulation caused some natural turnover. Most recently, the Project Manager, the top position for the project at NELSAP, changed. In May 2022, 4 different project managers worked on the project. One of them departed because of the above- mentioned term limit and the others resigned to pursue new job opportunities. ii) RPCL RPCL is the owner of the Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project. The company was incorporated in Tanzania and Rwanda in 2013, but not in Burundi as the power plant is located on Rwandan and Tanzanian territory. During construction, RPCL’s role has been to facilitate the implementation of the Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project (RRFHP) and to oversee the partnerships with project stakeholder, such as the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB). Once the power plant is operational, RPCL will become the operator and hence be responsible for all O&M activities after commissioning. It is also reported that they will recruit an O&M advisory firm to support them for 2 years. At the time this case study was written, (June 2022) RPCL was getting ready to assume their future role which involves the recruitment and training of new employees. RPCL is headed by a Managing Director who is supervised by a board of directors. These and other functions and responsibilities are shown in Figure 6. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 23 FIGURE 6 24 Organization Chart RPCL Results: Employment effects of the project Board of directors Supervision of activities Managing director Management position Internal auditor Academic Corporate social qualification Administrative assistant responsibility officer Formal qualification Security officer Environmental and Administrative Workplace safety social compliance assistant and health officer Corporate secretary officer legal counsel Low-level qualification Finance and Plant manager administration manager Administrative assistant Administrative assistant Maintenance IT engineer planner Human resources Procurement Senior and administrative officer accountant officer 4 shift Assistant Mechanical Civil Electrical Plant store Junior incharge human resources Nurse engineer engineer engineer manager accountant operators officer 6 drivers Protection Substation LC and 8 plant Mechanical Civil and control electrical electrical operators technicians technician technician technician technician Source: Based on information from RPCL. There are three qualification levels within RPCL: firstly, employees with an academic qualification (surrounded by an orange frame in the organizational chart shown above); secondly, employees for whom a higher formal education (technical or administrative) is required (depicted in blue in the organizational chart). Finally, there are employees with no or limited formal education for jobs such as drivers who need to have a driving license and driving experience. Those are shown in green in the organizational chart. The qualification levels are also indicative of the payment levels of employees. It is probable that RPCL will also use the services of, for instance, cleaners and caterers etc. The organization chart suggests that these services will be hired externally but no information was received with regards to those services. The RPCL management team consists of 3 positions/persons, marked in the organizational chart as fully colored orange fields: these positions are the Managing Director, the Plant Manager, and the Finance and Administration Manager. Management contracts are issued first for 6 years and then renewed every 3 years; other staff members can have unlimited employment contracts. When using the ILO’s current version of the International Standard Classification of Occupations (ISCO-08), the management positions, the jobs requiring an academic qualification and the formally qualified technicians could be classified as high skill level occupations (68% of the jobs at RPCL), the jobs requiring a non-technical formal qualification as medium skill level occupations (19%) and the driver jobs as occupations requiring a low skill level (13%) (ILO, 2012). The employment information of the project implementation unit of RPCL starts in 2014 when 1 person, the first Managing Director, started working for the company. Given that the Managing Director started his work in April 2014, 0.8 job years are shown for this position. There was only one person formally working for RPCL until 2019. From 2020, the organization started to recruit more employees as the formerly planned end date of the construction drew nearer. In 2020, there were already 10 people working for the company, in 2021, 11 employees, recruited throughout the year. From 2023, the organization shall be fully staffed with 51 persons working fulltime for RPCL. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 25 The employment profile of RPCL for the period 2013 to 2026 is shown in figure 7. FIGURE 7 Direct Employment RPCL (FTEs, 2014–2026) 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 48.6 11.2 9.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Open/not yet defined Jobs held by women Jobs held by men Total direct jobs As of June 2022, RPCL was recruiting people who would then be trained as needed to be ready to operate and maintain the plant after commissioning. It is also for that reason, that the gender of the people to be recruited is categorized as “open/ not yet defined”. By the end of 2021, 12 people were working for RPCL; by the end of 2022, the company plans to be fully staffed with 51 employees working for RPCL. The following 38 positions were planned to be filled by the end of 2022: • CSR Officer (1) • Internal Auditor (1) • Workplace Safety and Health Officer (1) • Maintenance Planner (1) • Procurement Officer (1) • Senior Accountant (1) • Shift in Charge (4) • Civil Engineer (1) • Plant Store Keeper (1) • Junior Accountant (1) 26 Results: Employment effects of the project • Assistant HR (1) • Nurse (1) • Plant Operator (8) • Mechanical Technician (2) • Civil Technician (1) • Substation Electrical Technician (2) • Legal counsel (1) • Electrical Technician (2) • Admin Assistants (3) • Drivers (5) RPCL plans to recruit their employees in equal shares from Burundi, Tanzania, and Rwanda. iii) Owner’s Engineer While NELSAP PIU and RPCL are regional organizations, two international corporations, one headquartered in Canada and the other one in France, were contracted to execute the functions of the Owner’s Engineer (OE). The OE designed the power plant between 2014 and 2016 and prepared the tenders for the main suppliers (CP 1 and CP 2). During the design period of the power plant, 2–3 site visits took place but no permanent OE staff was located at the construction site. During that period, the project work of the OE took place in France and Canada. Only limited information about the OE employment in their home office during that period was available for this case study. High-level estimates suggest that around 15–20 employees, mainly engineers from different disciplines but also a project management and administrative staff, were working on the project, however, most probably not all full-time all the time. An approximation for the employment in the home office of the OE would be around 5–10 FTE in the years 2014 to 2016 and a lower number from 2017 when the OE started to deploy permanent staff to the construction site of the RRFHP. In February 2017, 4 OE employees worked on site. This number increased to about 19 employees in January 2019. In May 2022, 18 OE employees worked at the construction site. Once the power plant is ready and the project is completed, OE employees will leave the project. The OE reports to NELSAP PIU and is headed by a Project Manager who is not permanently located at the construction site. On the site, the Chief Resident Engineer is responsible for the project. As said above, the on-site employment information of the OE starts in 2017. In February of that year, 4 OE employees were working at the site. This number reached 10 employees by the end of the year. Given that the people did not work during the entire year at the construction site, the number of FTE is lower than the number of employees. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 27 The employment profile of on-site OE staff for the period 2017 to 2023 is shown in figure 8. FIGURE 8 Direct On-Site Employment OE (FTEs, 2017–2023) 18.0 18.0 17.1 17.5 14.3 6.3 4.5 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Jobs held by women Jobs held by men Total direct jobs Based on the information from the interviews, the female employment rate was approximated to be at 12.5% based on the following statement: “On average, it can be estimated that women account for 5–10% of the overall workforce at RF. For the OE the share would be above 10%, for the other contractors (CP 1 and CP 2) rather below 10%”. Moreover, it was stated for the overall project that women work most often on activities such as environmental and social roles, HR, catering, and activities such as health services. The main suppliers have some health services on site which employ nurses and even a medical doctor. The split between local employees and expatriates working for the OE on-site was approximately 50% throughout the duration of the project, as seen in figure 9. 28 Results: Employment effects of the project FIGURE 9 Split Between Local Employees and Expatriates Working for the OE at the Construction Site (%) 50% 47% 44% 53% 60% 53% 56% 50% 47% 40% January 2017 January 2018 January 2019 January 2020 January 2021 Expatriates Locals iv) Contractual Partner 1: Civil Engineering The two key suppliers, CP 1 and CP 2, account for most of the employment created during the construction phase. The CP 1 is a Chinese construction JV that was contracted in 2016. As with the OE, it can be assumed that, in addition to the employees working directly at the site, some people were working on the RRFHP from their home office(s) abroad. However, no information regarding the size of the CP 1 workforce working remotely on the project was available for this case study. CP 1 started to deploy staff at the construction site in 2017. In October of the same year, 216 CP 1 employees were reported to be present at Rusumo Falls. Expressed in the full- time equivalent, there were 56.9 FTEs counted on the project in 2017. The number of CP 1 employees peaked in December 2019, when 828 persons were working at the RRFHP construction site. In terms of full-time equivalents for the entire year, 783 persons worked for CP 1 in 2019. Actual employment data was available until February 2022 only. Afterwards, the employment was assumed to decline linearly to reach 0 employees in March 2023, the official closing date of the contract (as of June 2022). JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 29 The employment profile of on-site CP 1 staff for the period 2016 to 2023 is shown in figure 10. FIGURE 10 Direct On-Site Employment CP 1 (FTEs, 2016–2023) 783.0 674.9 504.8 394.9 202.8 56.9 0 6.3 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Jobs held by women Jobs held by men Total direct jobs Based on the information received for this case study, the female employment rate was estimated to be at approximately 7.5% throughout the project. The split between local employees and expatriates working for the CP 1 onsite staff varied during the project, as seen in figure 11. In the beginning, the share of expatriates was highest in 2017 with 24% of employees. Since then, this share constantly declined until December 2021, when no more CP 1 expatriates worked at the construction site. 30 Results: Employment effects of the project FIGURE 11 Spit Between Local Employees and Expatriates Working for CP 1 (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 10% 14% 16% 21% 21% 26% 32% 43% 47% 54% 46% 39% 26% 31% 24% 18% 14% 14% 0% December 2017 December 2018 December 2019 December 2020 December 2021 Expatriates Employees from Tanzania Employees from Rwanda Employees from Burundi Employees from Ethopia v) Contractual Partner 2: Mechanical and Electrical Work The second CP is a JV between two companies from Germany and India. CP 2 is responsible for the supply and installation of the mechanical and electrical components of the power plant. Just as CP 1, CP 2 was also contracted at the end of 2016. As is the case for the OE and most probably also for CP 1, additional people were working on the project from abroad in addition to the employees working directly at the site. It was reported that staff from offices in Europe, India and Indonesia was involved. In Europe, approximately 12 employees worked for the project, and an estimated 20 in India and Indonesia. As said above, these manufacturing jobs should be counted as indirect employment. However, as the information on people working overseas on the project was very limited, the overall duration of activities, the percentage of working time these employees have spent on the project, and the scope of work were not disclosed for this case study, these indirect employment effects are not included in the numbers mentioned in the graphs and tables of this case study. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 31 CP 2 started to deploy onsite personnel to Rusumo Falls for the first time in November 2018, when 62 employees were reported to have worked at the construction site. Expressed as full-time equivalents, 10.3 FTEs can be counted on the project in 2018. In 2020, employment numbers declined. This temporary decrease can be linked to the Covid-19 pandemic. In March 2020, both CP 1 and CP 2 declared Force Majeure following restrictions in movement and assembly. While CP 1 continued to work with a reduced workforce, CP 2 stopped work temporarily (World Bank 2020). The number of CP 2 employees peaked in the month of February 2022, when 230 persons (FTEs) were working for CP 2. This number was also the last actual employment number available for this study. Afterwards, the employment was forecasted to decline linearly to reach 0 employees in March 2023, the official closing date of the contract (as of June 2022). The annual employment profile of on-site CP 2 staff for the period 2016 to 2023 is shown in figure 12. FIGURE 12 On-Site Employment CP 2 (FTEs, 2017–2023) 176.3 145.9 101.8 94.1 10.3 4.4 0 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Jobs held by women Jobs held by men Total direct jobs 32 Results: Employment effects of the project Based on the information received during the interviews, the female employment rate was estimated to be approximately 7.5% throughout the project. The split between local employees and expatriates working for the CP 2 onsite staff varied during the project. In the beginning, the share of expatriates was lowest with 4–5% by year end 2018 and 2019. Since 2020, this rate has been increasing, reaching approximately 10% in February 2022. FIGURE 13 Spit Between Local Employees and Expatriates Working for CP 2 (%) 6% 9% 9% 16% 15% 47% 49% 61% 44% 55% 32% 32% 33% 27% 26% 8% 11% 10% 5% 4% December 2018 December 2019 December 2020 December 2021 February 2022 Expatriates (other countries) Employees from Tanzania Employees from Rwanda Employees from Burundi Table 8 shows all direct employment of NELSAP, RPCL, CP 1, CP 2, and the OE in FTEs/year. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 33 34 Results: Employment effects of the project TABLE 8 Detailed Results: Construction-Related Employment of the RRFHP (FTEs/Year, Jobs Years) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 TOTAL Direct labor (construction) Direct labor: NELSAP PIU Total Jobs held by men 2.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 15.0 34.0 39.0 39.0 38.0 38.0 9.5 244.5 Jobs held by women 1.5 3.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 10.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 2.8 75.3 Open/not yet defined 0.5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.0 1.0 0.3 2.8 Total direct labor-NELSAP (j-y) 4.0 11.0 14.0 17.0 20.0 44.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 12.5 322.5 Direct labor: RPCL (April 2014) Total Gender split Jobs held by men 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 9.6 10.7 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 81.0 29.0% Jobs held by women 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.6 1.0 1.0  1.0 1.0  1.0 5.6 2.0% Open/not yet defined 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 36.6 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 192.6 69.0% Total direct labor-RPCL (j-y) 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 9.6 11.2 48.6 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 279.2 100.0% Direct labor, Component A1: civil works, 9.11.2016 Total Gender split Jobs held by men 0.0 52.6 466.9 724.3 624.3 365.3 187.6 5.8 2,426.8 92.5% Jobs held by women 0.0 4.3 37.9 58.7 50.6 29.6 15.2 0.5 196.8 7.5% Open/not yet defined 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 — 0% Total direct labor A1 (j-y) 0.0 56.9 504.8 783.0 674.9 394.9 202.8 6.3 2,623.6 100% (continues) TABLE 8 Detailed Results: Construction-Related Employment of the RRFHP (FTEs/Year, Jobs Years) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 TOTAL Direct labor, Component A2: mechanical and electrical, 9.11.2016 Total Gender split Jobs held by men 0 0 9.6 94.1 87.0 163.1 135.0 4.1 492.9 92.5% JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT Jobs held by women 0 0 0.8 7.6 7.1 13.2 10.9 0.3 40.0 7.5% Open/not yet defined 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 — 0% Total direct labor A2 (j-y) 0.0 0.0 10.3 101.8 94.1 176.3 145.9 4.4 532.8 100% Direct labor, Component A4: Owner’s engineer (OE), 7.11.2014 Total Gender split Jobs held by men 0 0 0 0 5.5 12.5 14.9 15.3 15.8 15.8 3.9 83.7 87.5% Jobs held by women 0 0 0 0 0.8 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 0.6 12.0 12.5% Open/not yet defined 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 — 0% Total direct labor A4 (j-ys) 0 0 0 0 6.3 14.3 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.0 4.5 95.7 100% Total direct labor per year (components A1, A2 and A4), onsite only Total Gender split Jobs held by men 2 9 11 13 74 524 873 775 593 387.3 34.4 11.0 11.0 11.0 3,329 86.4% Jobs held by women 2 3 4 5 10 50 79 71 57 40.4 5.1  1.0  1.0  1.0 330 8.6% Unclear/open/not yet defined 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 37.6 39.3 39.0 39.0 39.0 195 5.1% Total labor (job years) 4 12 15 18 84 574 953 846 650 465.3 78.7 51.0 51.0 51.0 3,854 100.0% Legend: 2024–26 O&M period, data based on forecasts No employment (planned) 2023 Construction and O&M period, data based on forecasts 0 Actual employment, but not recorded OR not on site 2022 Construction period; data (partially) based on forecasts 1.0 Actual employment, recorded 2013–21 Construction period; data based on actual numbers 1.0 Planned future employment 35 Figure 14 gives an overview of FTEs/MW per year, separated by construction and O&M related employment, assuming that the power plant started operations in the 2nd quarter of 2023. The project is estimated to have created on average 4.7 FTEs p.a./MW in construction over a period of 9.75 years and is forecasted to create approx. 0.6 FTE p.a./MW for O&M activities. FIGURE 14 Development of Construction-Related FTEs/MW (80MW) and Year (2013–2026) 11.9 10.6 8.1 7.2 5.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Construction FTE/year/MW O&M FTE/year/MW 36 Results: Employment effects of the project While O&M activities will provide employment opportunities for the lifetime of the powerplant (between 30 to 80 years, the jobs of the construction phase will cease to exist after commissioning and it may be asked what will happen to those employees whose jobs will be completed once the project enters operations (IRENA 2012). The expatriates will return to their home countries and the nationals from Burundi, Tanzania, and Rwanda will have to look for new employment opportunities. The skills that were acquired during the construction of the power plant, such as for example welding techniques, are believed to increase their chances to find a new job as many technical skills shall be easily transferable to other construction sites and are not specific for hydropower projects only. 4.3. E&S-Related Employment Effects Finally, the present study assesses some direct employment impacts of activities related to the Local Area Development Plan (LADP). The LADP is a benefit-sharing program that shall enhance regional economic and social development in the Rusumo area, thereby complementing the construction project of the power plant. Each beneficiary country was able to use approx. 5 million USD for their respective LADP projects. The LADP activities are financed by Component A3 with a budget of 22 million USD, accounting for approximately 6% of the 340 million USD budget of all Component A activities. Within the A3 budget, the LADP alone is worth 15.5 million USD, thereby accounting for about 70% of the overall value of Component A3. The LADP activities are managed by respective districts in Tanzania, Burundi, and Rwanda (World Bank 2019). LADP activities are a part of the Environmental and Social (E&S) activities of the project that are described in different documents and budgeted across different components. Figure 15 gives an overview of the project’s structure with regards to E&S activities. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 37 FIGURE 15 E&S Activities of the RRFHP Project 38 Environmental and Social Results: Employment effects of the project Impact Assessment (ESIA) includes Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP) includes Environmental and Social (E&S) Action Plans Key E&S Action Plan for the Action Plan for the Action Plan for the procedures Preparation Phase (PAP) Construction Phase (PAC) Operation Phase (PAE) 9 more 24 documents 6 more 44 ESMP action plans 5 documents: documents (PAC-01 to documents included in components KP01 to KP05 (PAP-01 to PAP 09) PAC24) (PAE-01 to PAE-06) A1, A2 and A4 Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) Direct associated employment included in this study Local Area includes Development Plan (annexe 2 of the RAP) Component A3 (IDA): Social and Environmental Impacts mitigation (US$ 22.0 million). 11 activities in 5 approved 13 activities Burundi of which activities in approved in 3 were cancelled Rwanda Tanzania Source: Based on various World Bank documents, Artelia 2013b, World Bank 2020, Artelia 2013c, Artelia 2013a. The document that describes all E&S activities is the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA). This document also includes the Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP), which details the Environmental and Social Action Plans. These plans include key procedures as well as action plans split by project phases. In total, there are 44 ESMP- related action plans. The actions described in these plans as well as their supervision are budgeted in Components A1, A2 and A4. The Resettlement Action Plan (RAP), which includes the Local Area Development Plan (LADP) as an annex, is budgeted separately in Component A3. Component A3 is referred to in the “Implementation Status and Results Reports” as “Social and Environmental Impacts Mitigation”. The RAP and the LADP differ as follows. The Resettlement Action Plan (RAP) shall ensure that project affected people (PAP) who will economically or physically be impacted negatively by the RRFHP are compensated in a socially responsible way and according to best practices. The RAP includes, for example, cash compensation to project affected households (IRENA 2012). As such, the RAP directly addresses only those people and companies that were impacted by the RRFHP. The LADP has the broader objective to develop the project area in all three countries and goes beyond those households and businesses that are directly impacted by the project. It aims to promote benefits sharing through community-based integrated watershed development, to improve the diversification of community livelihood and strengthen their organizational capacities. The livelihood programs contained in the LADP were designed with the participation of affected households and local leaders (World Bank 2013). NELSAP PIU is supervising the implementation of measures and actions of LADP activities which are split by beneficiary country. According to different World Bank documents, 11 LADP activities were to take place in Burundi of which three were cancelled for undisclosed reasons. Five activities were approved in Rwanda and 13 in Tanzania, but it is yet unclear how many of these activities were implemented. Not taking into account the three cancelled activities, a maximum of 26 activities LADP activities could exist. For this case study, employment information of the following 23 LADP activities was received and analyzed. The findings are shared in tables 9, 10 and 11. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 39 40 Results: Employment effects of the project TABLE 9 LADP Workers Statistics – During Construction: Rwanda (Ngoma District) NO. PROJECT CONTRACTORS LADP ENGINEERS TECHNICIANS ESHS TOTAL DURATION STATUS STARTED ENDED   DESCRIPTION COORDINATION       EMPLOYMENT (MONTHS) (MAY MEN WOMEN       2022)  1 Construction of 28.7 km of mixed 579 354 7 2 1 2 945 10 completed N/A N/A water pipeline 2 Rehabilitation of Kigabiro – 197  79 7 2 1 2 288 6 completed N/A N/A Rurenge–Gatore feeder road 3 Construction of 33km of Gituku- 678 299 7 2 1 2 989 8 completed N/A N/A Murama water supply system Source: Based on information from NELSAP PIU. TABLE 10 LADP Workers Statistics – During Construction: Burundi NO. PROJECT DESCRIPTION CONTRACTORS LADP ENGINEERS TECHNICIANS ESHS TOTAL DURATION STATUS STARTED ENDED COORDINATION EMPLOYMENT (MONTHS) (MAY MEN WOMEN   2022) Commune of Busoni JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 4 Construction of Rugando health 80 50 6 2 3 1 142 8 completed 26.08.2019 17.02.2022 center 5 Construction of Murore training 50 30 6 2 2 1 91 8 completed 26.08.2019 17.02.2022 center 6 Rehabilitation of and extension of 200 100 6 5 3 1 315 10 ongoing 23.12.2019  N/A water systems in Busoni Commune (39 km) Commune of Giteranyi 7 Construction of Bugoma health 40 5 6 2 1 2 56 8 completed 29.08.2019 21.02.2022 center 8 Construction of Ruzo health center 70 45 6 2 2 2 127 completed 29.08.2019 21.02.2022 9 Rehabilitation of and extension of 300 120 6 5 3 1 435 10 ongoing 23.12.2010  N/A water systems in Busoni Commune (39 km) 10 Construction of Giteranyi head 60 40 6 2 1 1 110 6 completed 11.11.2020 16.12.2022 office 11 Bamboo and agroforestry tree 1,424 672 6 0 10 1 2,113 2 completed 01.04.2021 05.06.2021 plantation Source: Based on information from NELSAP PIU. 41 TABLE 11 LADP Workers Statistics – During Construction: Tanzania (Ngara District) NO. PROJECT DESCRIPTION CONTRACTORS LADP ENGINEERS TECHNICIANS ESHS TOTAL DURATION STATUS STARTED ENDED COORDINATION EMPLOYMENT (MONTHS) (MAY MEN WOMEN 2022 12 Construction of Rusumo Water Project 48 10 5 3 4 1 71 10 ongoing* Oct 2020  N/A 13 Construction of Rusumo health center 80 35 3 2 2 1 123 20 completed  May 2020 Dec 2021 14 a)  Rehabilitation of 2 workshops 45 15 3 2 2 2 69 12 completed Apr 2020 Mar 2021 b)  Construction of playing ground for football, netball 103 30 3 2 2 2 142 12 completed Apr 2020 Mar 2021 & volleyball c)  Fence construction for the college 42 12 3 1 1 2 61 12 completed Apr 2020 Mar 2021 15 Construction of Lukole health centre 47 12 3 3 1 2 68 10 completed Sep 2019 June 2020 16 Construction at Mumiterama Secondary School 55 32 3 1 1 1 93 10 completed Sep 2019 June 2020 17 Construction at Rusumo Primary School 45 22 3 1 1 1 73 10 completed Sep 2019 June 2020 18 Construction at Kyenda Dispensary 20 15 3 1 1 1 41 10 completed  Sep 2019 June 2020 19 a) Rehabilitation and extension of Water Supply 120 8 3 1 1 1 134 9 completed Apr 2020 Dec 2020 Projects at Rwakalemera Village b)  Rehabilitation and extension of Water Supply 18 1 3 1 1 1 25 9 completed Apr 2020  Dec 2020 Projects at Mshikamano Village c) Rehabilitation and extension of Water Supply 91 2 3 1 1 1 99 9 completed  Apr 2020 Dec 2020 Projects at Kasulo Village d) Rehabilitation and extension of Water Supply 80 3 3 1 1 1 89 9 completed Apr 2020 Dec 2020 Projects at Kasharazi Village 20 Construction at Ngoma Primary School 27 6 3 1 1 1 39 8 completed Sept 2019 Apr 2020 21 Construction at Rusumo Secondary School 25 5 3 1 1 1 36 8 completed  Sept 2019 Apr 2020 22 Construction of Makugwa P/R School 35 20 3 1 2 1 62 7 completed  Sept 2019 Apr 2020 23 Construction of Bukiriro Secondary School 32 13 3 1 2 1 52 7 completed  Sept 2019 Apr 2020 Source: Based on information from NELSAP PIU. Taking into account the durations of the reported activities, a total of up to 4,021 job-years were created by LADP activities alone. The employment impact, however, varies largely by activity, as shown in table 12. TABLE 12 Overview of Direct E&S Employment Numbers (RRFHP LADP Only) A3-PROJECT COUNTRY MALE FEMALE GENDER NOT TOTAL % OF CUMULATED NUMBER JOB-YEARS JOB-YEARS COMMUNICATED DIRECT TOTAL JOB YEARS JOB-YEARS LABOR A3 JOB (JOB-YEARS) YEARS 1 Rwanda 482.5 295.0 10.0 787.5 19.6% 19.6% 3 Rwanda 452.0 199.3 8.0 659.3 16.4% 36.0% 9 Burundi 250.0 100.0 12.5 362.5 9.0% 45.0% 11 Burundi 237.3 112.0 2.8 352.2 8.8% 53.8% 14 Tanzania 190.0 57.0 25.0 272.0 6.8% 60.5% 6 Burundi 166.7 83.3 12.5 262.5 6.5% 67.0% 19 Tanzania 231.8 10.5 18.0 260.3 6.5% 73.5% 13 Tanzania 133.3 58.3 13.3 205.0 5.1% 78.6% 2 Rwanda 98.5 39.5 6.0 144.0 3.6% 82.2% 4 Burundi 53.3 33.3 8.0 94.7 2.4% 84.5% 16 Tanzania 45.8 26.7 5.0 77.5 1.9% 86.5% 8 Burundi 35.0 22.5 6.0 63.5 1.6% 88.1% 17 Tanzania 37.5 18.3 5.0 60.8 1.5% 89.6% 5 Burundi 33.3 20.0 7.3 60.7 1.5% 91.1% 12 Tanzania 40.0 8.3 10.8 59.2 1.5% 92.5% 15 Tanzania 39.2 10.0 7.5 56.7 1.4% 94.0% 10 Burundi 30.0 20.0 5.0 55.0 1.4% 95.3% 7 Burundi 26.7 3.3 7.3 37.3 0.9% 96.3% 22 Tanzania 20.4 11.7 4.1 36.2 0.9% 97.2% 18 Tanzania 16.7 12.5 5.0 34.2 0.8% 98.0% 23 Tanzania 18.7 7.6 4.1 30.3 0.8% 98.8% 20 Tanzania 18.0 4.0 4.0 26.0 0.6% 99.4% 21 Tanzania 16.7 3.3 4.0 24.0 0.6% 100.0% Total   2,673.3 1,156.6 191.3 4,021.3 100.0% %-value   66% 29% 5% 100% Source: Based on information from NELSAP PIU. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 43 The four most labor intense projects (project numbers 1, 3, 9 and 11) account for 53.8% of overall job-years created by LADP activities. Some single activities stand out in terms of labor intensity. Project 11 reports a total employment of 2,113 persons for planting trees for a duration of 2 months only. At first glance, this seems like a high number. However, a local consultant confirmed that for such afforestation activities, many people are potentially employed over a short period of time. Projects 1, 3 and 9 are infrastructure projects for which a higher number of employees seems reasonable, especially considering that these infrastructure projects were all completed in less than a year. The employment numbers for other activities appear very high based on the description alone. For example, for activity 14b “Construction of playing ground for football, netball & volleyball”, 142 employees were reported to have worked for 12 months. It is unclear how many playing grounds were constructed and if staff were employed on a full-time basis. Details with regards to working hours were requested but not received during the research phase for this report, so it is possible that there were 142 employees in total who only supported the project for a couple of days or even hours. It can also be observed that nearly all LADP activities were conducted between 2019 and 2022. Project 9, “Rehabilitation of and extension of water systems in Busoni Commune”, was reported to have started in 2010 - which is before the approval date of the RRFHP. No additional explanation was received. The tracking and reporting of LADP activities in particular, but also of E&S activities in general, seems to have been a challenge. In 2019, the World Bank reported “significant issues with regard to environmental and social safeguards management of the project” for a number of reasons, including but not limited to the following (World Bank 2020): • inadequate environmental safeguards supervision and enforcement • insufficient attention to social risk management; • inadequate project management of the LRP and LADP activities These shortcomings may have been remedied since 2019, but the information received about E&S employment effects for this report was still limited and therefore needs to be interpreted with care. When spreading the reported 4,021 job-years across the entire project period of 9.75 years and 80 MW, the multiplier for direct jobs created by the LADP is 5.2 FTEs p.a./MW. This is higher than the FTE multiplier of 4.7 FTE p.a./MW for construction-related direct employment. However, as mentioned above, the estimate for direct jobs related to LADP activities may be at the high end. 4.4. Theory of Change The current case study aimed to identify the impact of the RRFHP on employment related to the construction of the hydroelectric power plant and to social and environmental programs 44 Results: Employment effects of the project that are associated with the project. In detail, the employment effects that could be assessed for this case study include: 1. Direct RRFHP construction-related jobs: these jobs are related to the activities connected with Components A1, A2 and A4 with total financing of 318 million USD. In terms of organizations involved, the jobs include the persons employed on-site by the construction company (CP 1), the supplier of the hydropower specific power equipment (CP 2), the Owner’s engineer (OE) and the people working for NELSAP PIU. 2. Direct RRFHP Operation jobs: these jobs are related to the operation and maintenance activities financed by the A4 Component. In terms of organizations involved, the jobs include the persons (forecasted to be) employed at RPCL. 3. Direct jobs associated to different activities of the LADP financed by Component A3. These jobs cannot be attributed to a single organization. The impact of the RRFHP, however, will go well beyond the employment effects described in this case study. In order to capture and describe such impacts as well, a “Theory of Change” (ToC) approach is often used. Figure 16 shows the ToC for the RRFHP by displaying different project related activities, outputs, and outcomes with a special emphasis on employment creation. Activities describe the tasks necessary to create a specific output, in this case the targeted generation of 448 GWh per year that shall be enabled by the 80 MW power plant. The ToC shows two main activities under Component A of the World Bank, the construction of the power plant itself and the implementation of E&S activities. Both activities created demand for direct labor as well as indirect and induced labor. The generation of electricity is the main output of the construction project and infrastructure improvements are the main output of the E&S activities of the project. For details about the E&S activities, please refer to Figure 15. O&M activities of the power plant will lead to continuous employment as long as the power plant is operated. The operation and maintenance will also require the supply of, for example, tools and material, which will create indirect jobs. The E&S related infrastructure improvements, such as schools, health centers, and roads, will also create labor (e.g. teachers, O&M of water supply systems) and have the potential to increase the human capital, for example, by providing better education. The new infrastructure also has the potential to promote trade and travel. Moreover, the construction of the new power plant improved the availability of qualified workers who may work on, and benefit from, future infrastructure projects. Finally, the outcome(s) of the RRFHP are described. Outcomes represent the change an investment seeks to create. As described before, there were several outcomes that were targeted by the construction of the RRFHP. One key outcome is described by the Project Development Objective (PDO): “to increase the supply of electricity to the national grids of Rwanda, Tanzania, and Burundi” (World Bank 2013). In addition, economic growth, facilitated by both the increased electricity supply, the improved infrastructure and the employment opportunities created by the RRFHP, is another objective. New businesses can appear due to the increased power supply or existing businesses may have the opportunity to expand because of an improved power supply situation. This being said, it will be necessary to take into account power supply reliability and the influence to which the newly created capacity and power supply will have on electricity tariffs. If tariffs are set too high compared to the JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 45 46 FIGURE 16 Theory of Change and Employment Effects of the RRFHP Results: Employment effects of the project Activities and Inputs Outputs Outcomes Increased power generation capacity of 448 GWh p.a. provided to Rwanda, Increased electricity supply to the national grids of Burundi and Tanzania Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania (PDO) Construction of the 80 MW RRFHP (components A1,A2 and A4) Increased access to electricity in Rwanda, Burundi Construction-related labor inputs and Tanzania Continued operation and maintenance of RRFHP International labor: expatriates from international companies Reduce subsistence livelihoods and use of Labor inputs natural fuels, stop of deforestation Local labor with suitable skills, training, and/or experience Skilled/semi- F Skilled/semi- F Skilled/semi- F skilled/unskilled jobs skilled/unskilled jobs skilled/unskilled jobs Economic growth and poverty reduction for a growing population Skilled jobs Semi- Skilled/semi- F skilled/unskilled Trained workers available for other hydropower and eventually other (e.g., design, skilled/unskilled infrastructure projects available jobs (e.g., jobs (i.e., jobs engineering, F construction work, created among F project technicians) suppliers of project Continued employment management) inputs) opportunities for workers with skills relevant to F hydropower and beyond Skilled/semi-skilled/unskilled jobs created by the Demand for new consumption and purchases of direct and indirect Subsequent hydropower construction projects types of jobs employees F and/or other construction projects occur exists Creation of new jobs and new businesses F Associated labor inputs: implementation of E&S measures Possibility for increased New businesses and jobs in Resettlement and Local Area Development Plan (component A3) Infrastructure improvements travel/trade response to higher demand •Resettlement and compensation of displaced families and businesses unrelated to hydropower scheme (e.g., shops, restaurants) F •Community development measures (e.g., construction of schools, roads, water supply systems, leisure facilities etc.) Improved human capital (e.g., higher secondary education F Skilled/semi- New business and jobs due Semi- completion rates) F skilled/unskilled to increased potential for Skilled jobs skilled/unskilled jobs (i.e., jobs productive uses of electricity (e.g., project jobs (e.g., F created among F management) construction suppliers of project Labor inputs work, technicians) inputs) Skilled/semi- F Skilled/semi- F Skilled/semi- F skilled/unskilled jobs skilled/unskilled jobs skilled/unskilled jobs Skilled/semi-skilled/unskilled jobs created by the consumption and purchases of direct and indirect Increased welfare employees Supplementary F income in project- affected areas Promote regional integration ESMP action plans included in components A1, A2 and A4 Sustaining regional peace and stability Direct WB supported activity/ output/ Legend Indirect jobs Induced jobs Productive use jobs F = females employed Assumptions construction jobs outcome ability or willingness to pay of businesses, the newly created capacity may not be as beneficial for economic growth and business creation. As a result of these overall improvements, the welfare of the population is increased, tensions between the beneficiary countries are reduced, thereby ultimately sustaining regional peace and stability. In essence, employment effects are created by both the construction of the power plant and by E&S activities. Once the power plant becomes operational and the infrastructure created by E&S activities is completed, new jobs can be created to operate and maintain both new infrastructure and social facilities, such as schools and health centers. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 47 FIVE CONCLUSIONS 5.1. Construction-Related Employment Numbers This case study has shown that the RRFHP has created hundreds of direct jobs over a period of 9.75 years, as seen in figure 17. FIGURE 17 Construction-Related FTEs by Gender and Year (2013–2026) 952.8 846.1 650.5 574.4 465.3 84.2 78.7 51.0 51.0 51.0 4.0 11.8 15.0 18.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Unclear/open/not yet defined Jobs held by women Jobs held by men Total direct jobs Construction-related jobs were primarily created by civil works (2,623 job-years) and the supply and installation of mechanical and electrical equipment (533 job-years). The design of the power plant and the manufacturing of the key power equipment supplied by CP 2 took mostly place outside of Africa and are not included in the employment numbers of this study, except for some high-level estimates mentioned in the text. After commissioning, the number of direct construction-related jobs will decrease. Approximately 50 people will be employed to operate and maintain the 80 MW power plant. Although the overall employment number will not be as high as during the > 9.75-year-construction phase, the O&M jobs will be permanent in the sense that they will continue to exist over the lifetime of the power plant, which is estimated to be several decades. This being said, it needs to be acknowledged that today’s employment estimates for O&M activities do not need to be identical to tomorrow’s since we don’t know whether jobs and employment profiles may eventually become obsolete in the future, for instance due to technological advances and automation of O&M related activities. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 49 In terms of direct jobs of LADP activities, the case study has shown that the employment impact of activities related to social and environmental activities can be enormous. The reported number of direct job-years (4,021) created by LADP activities alone were in the same range and even slightly higher than the direct jobs created by the construction and the O&M- related activities of the power plant. This is remarkable, especially taking into account that the budget for these activities accounted only for 6% of the overall project budget of the World Bank (22 million USD for Component A3 (including the RAP and the LADP) of the total budget of 340 million USD; LADP accounts for about 15.5 million USD of this amount) and also includes other, non-employment related costs such as, for example, the monetary compensation of families and businesses that had to leave their premises because of the construction of the power plant. Therefore, the direct jobs years created with 1 million USD of investment for LADP activities (259.4 job-years for 1 million USD) is much higher than the direct job-years created by construction activities (12.1 job-years for 1 million USD). However, the direct employment numbers of the need to be interpreted with care as the E&S related information available for this case study was limited and the management of these activities had shown some weaknesses in the past. Nevertheless, even if the numbers were too high, the job effect per million USD spent of social programs such as the LADP would still be remarkable. The high number of FTEs created by LADP activities could mean that they were carried out to a larger extent by unskilled employees who need more time to finish a task than a skilled employee. More research is needed in the future to describe and analyze E&S related employment effects of renewable energy projects. Table 13 summarizes the observed employment effects of the RRFHP as well as the job years that were created for each budgeted million USD. TABLE 13 Summary Table of Key Employment Indicators (2013–2026) COMPANY TOTAL FTE P.A./MW, FTE P.A./ ASSOCIATED JOB JOB CONSTRUCTION MW, O&M BUDGET YEARS/ YEARS (MILLION MILLION USD) USD NELSAP PIU 322.5 0.4 — N/A N/A RPCL 279.2 0.2 0.7 N/A N/A Component A4: Owner’s engineer (OE) 95.7 0.1 — N/A N/A Total direct NELSAP, RPCL, OE 697.4 0.7 0.7 $ 37 18.8 Component A1: civil works 2,623.6 3.4 0 $ 155 16.9 Component A2: mechanical and electrical 532.8 0.7 0 $ 126 4.2 Total direct (construction- and O&M related) 3,853.8 4.7 0.7 $ 318 12.1 Total associated direct (non-construction-related) 4,021.3 5.2 0 $ 15.5 259.4 pertaining to 23 LADP projects1 Total direct (construction, O&M and LADP related) 7,875.0 9.9 0.7 $ 333.5 23.6 50 conclusions In case the credit amounts actually expensed will be lower than the budgeted amounts, as suggested by the “Implementation Status & Results Report” as of June 2022, the job-years created per million dollars spent would increase (World Bank 2022). TABLE 14 World Bank’s RRFHP Credits/Grants, Budgeted and Revised Amounts CREDIT/GRANT BUDGET STATUS AND RESULTS DIFFERENCE NUMBER (COMPONENT A) REPORT (06/2022) IDA52950 $56.65 $52.64 $4.01 IDA52960 $113.30 $103.64 $9.66 IDAH8720 $113.30 $103.68 $9.62 IDAH8730 $56.65 $52.29 $4.36 Total $339.90 $312.25 $27.65 Source: Based on World Bank 2022. Qualitative Differences Between Types 5.2.  of Direct Employment Apart from differences in job numbers and indicators, there are also other findings with regards to jobs created by the power plant project and those created by LADP activities. These findings are summarized in table 15. TABLE 15 Summary Table of Key Differences Between Construction-Related and E&S-Related Direct Employment CATEGORY CONSTRUCTION-RELATED EMPLOYMENT E&S-RELATED DIRECT EMPLOYMENT Importance in terms Approx. 94% Approx. 6% of overall budget Duration of activities Several years Mostly several months Number of activities Few, rather centralized activities that are attributable Many, rather decentralized activities that are to a limited number of organizations and suppliers; attributable to a large number of organizations “easier to track” and suppliers, “more difficult to track” Involvement of Yes, main construction and equipment suppliers Rather limited, activities supervised and driven by international are mostly from countries outside the project area local or regional organizations, potentially with the organizations support of individual international consultants (continues) JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 51 TABLE 15 Summary Table of Key Differences Between Construction-Related and E&S-Related Direct Employment (Continued) CATEGORY CONSTRUCTION-RELATED EMPLOYMENT E&S-RELATED DIRECT EMPLOYMENT Share of female Around 10%, slightly higher for project management Much higher than for construction-related employment related activities employment, around 30% Please note: 10% is lower than what is observed for the RE industry globally: IRENA estimates that women represent 32% of the RE workforce (IRENA 2019a) Employment creation Yes, direct O&M jobs for running the power plant. The infrastructure investments can have a after project end These direct jobs will also lead to the creation positive employment impact after the end of of indirect jobs when companies have to supply the construction project as well, e.g., health equipment and services to RPCL; induced jobs will centers and schools will have to be staffed, new be created by an increased level of income in the infrastructure such as roads will have to be region. operated and maintained; it was reported that the regional governments have committed to finance these activities in the future with a recurrent budget that also includes personnel costs The present study has also collected information about the distribution of construction related jobs by project phase across different companies and functions, as seen in figure 18. The first 3–4 years of the project (2013 to 2017) were low in job creation. In this period, key suppliers such as the OE, CP 1, and CP 2 needed to be contracted and only very limited activities took place at the project site. The OE was the first company to come on board in 2014 to design the project and to support the selection of CP 1 and CP 2, who were contracted in 2016. Those two companies were the ones who created most employment during the construction of the power plant. This construction phase lasted 4–5 years (2018 to 2022/2023). CP 1, CP 2, and the OE were international companies, who awarded the majority of on-site job opportunities related to their scope of work to local staff. The pure regional stakeholders directly involved in the project, NELSAP-PIU and RPCL, focused on project supervision and management activities and their employment accounted for approximately 15.6% of all (actual and forecasted) job-years between 2013 and 2026. The share of the international suppliers (OE, CP1 and CP2) was 84.4%. Even though the project has not yet entered operation and the employment related to the outputs and outcomes cannot yet be assessed, it can be stated that the project already brought change to the benefiting countries, and beyond. Over several years, hundreds of people have directly worked for the project, been paid by the project, and most certainly also spent their salaries, thereby creating induced employment opportunities. It was also said that employees who worked in construction have benefitted from the experience and qualifications they acquired by carrying out and eventually also by receiving certification for activities such as welding. Those people should, provided that the acquired certifications do not expire before a new employment is found, be better positioned to find new jobs and hence sustainably improve their employment situation beyond the RRFHP. Moreover, LADP activities also gave employment to people and created infrastructure such as schools, health centers, roads, sanitary infrastructure, and leisure grounds, such as football and 52 conclusions FIGURE 18 Construction-Related FTEs by Organization and Year 952.8 846.1 650.5 574.4 465.3 84.2 78.7 4.0 11.8 15.0 18.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 NELSAP-PIU - Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary RPCL - The Rusumo Power Company Action Program Limited OE - Owner’s engineer CP 1 - Contractual Partner 1 CP 2- Contractual Partner 2 Total volleyball areas. This infrastructure also has the potential to change the lives of the local people for the better, beyond the construction project, and create additional jobs for teachers, nurses, and other professions. Once the power plant will be operational, the additional power supply may spur the creation of additional business and jobs, promote economic growth, reduce poverty, increase the overall welfare in the three beneficiary countries. This may ultimately contribute to peace and stability in the region. It shall, however, not be forgotten that the construction of a hydropower plant also represents a major intervention in the environment of the construction site and in the life of people living in that area. E&S activities were also implemented to compensate for these negative impacts of the RRFHP. The effects that the additional GWh of power will have on households, businesses and the regional governments cannot yet be quantified but the potential impacts were shown in a project specific ToC approach (please refer to chapter IV.C). In summary, the overall effect of the RRFHP can be assumed to be positive, as the supply of a scarce resource will increase in a region that has been suffering from under-supply of electricity for many decades. With regards to data collection, it can be said that it is difficult to re-assess retrospectively the employment effects of a complex project like the RRFHP, started nearly a decade ago. The project involves 3 different countries, 5 organizations, and many single projects related to social and environmental activities. Understanding employment creation is an ambitious and multi-faceted objective. As such, it is recommendable to explicitly track employment from the beginning of future projects by recording and collecting respective data systematically from all stakeholders involved. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 53 5.3. Limitations and Future Research Need The following limitations with regards to the data used and the calculations presented in this report should be taken into account for the interpretation of the results and for future investigations of employment impacts related to the construction of hydroelectric powerplants in Africa: • Future employment of the project: The Nobel laureate in Physics Niels Bohr is often quoted with “Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future!”. This is of course also true for this case study. Since the RRFHP is still under construction, it is still not possible to know when exactly the plant will be commissioned and when operations will start. This report assumed the project will be concluded by March 31st, 2023, but some project stakeholders estimate that some activities such as commissioning could also be completed later, around May 2023. The sooner the works will be completed, the sooner construction workers will leave the site and have to look for new employment opportunities. With regards to O&M, we already know that 51 persons are supposed to work for RPCL but this number may also be subject to changes in the future, based on technical development and organizational changes. Moreover, the impact the future power production of the project will have on households, companies, and the 3 beneficiary countries in general should be assessed by future research. • Underestimation of construction-related employment effects, especially with regards to pre-project launch: People were already working on preparing the RRFHP as early as the 1970s. Before the start of the construction project in 2013/ 2014 NELSAP-CU mobilized grants of 7.72 million USD (TF-57297) to prepare the project. The number of people and their time spent on the project “before the project (approval)” was not available and could hence not be assessed. Moreover, other organizations such as the World Bank itself also locally employ staff to supervise and monitor the project. These jobs were beyond the scope of the present case study. Finally, jobs that were created outside the beneficiary countries, e.g., at the international organizations in their home countries, have not been assessed in detail but, if available, the estimates for the magnitude of jobs created by the project outside the project area were mentioned in the text. • Underestimation of associated direct employment effects: The information reviewed for direct employment effects of activities related to livelihood restoration and social programs only included LADP activities, which account for about 70% of the budgeted amount for A3 activities. Data on jobs created by other E&S related activities such as the Environmental and Social Management Plan (ESMP), the Resettlement Action Plan (RAP), implementation of the associated Livelihood Restoration Program (LRP) was not available and is therefore not included in the employment numbers of this report. • Overestimation of reported associated direct employment effects: Some of the LADP employment numbers received appear to be very high when looking at the scope of the activities. For instance, 142 persons working for 12 months on the construction of playing grounds for football, netball, and volleyball seems to be a high number. However, it is also unclear how many of these playing grounds were built. Moreover, it could not be 54 conclusions ascertained that the people reported also worked fulltime on the LADP activities. Taking the example above, it can only be speculated that not all 142 people worked fulltime during the 12 months, some may have worked only a couple of hours. Moreover, the numbers may also include double counting: when looking at the position of “LADP” coordination, this position adds up to 122 employees across all 17 projects. Taking into account that most of the LADP projects were implemented in parallel, it is rather unlikely that the 122 coordinators were all different persons. Rather, there may have been one single coordinator being responsible for several projects. However, as no information with regards to part-time jobs was received and the project management of LADP activities was reported to be challenging, at least until 2019, doubts regarding the accuracy and the reliability of the job-years created by LADP activities remain and the direct associated employment estimates should be interpreted as maximum numbers. • No data on informal labor: Based on ILO data, informal employment accounts for 90.8% of total employment in Tanzania, for 98.3% in Burundi and for 80.1% in Rwanda (ILO n.d.). It can be expected that a project financed by the international community has a lower share of informal employment but it might be considered naïve to think that informal employment did not play a role for this project. The employment numbers shown in this report were the employment numbers officially communicated to the author of this study, no information with regards to informal employment has been received and, as a consequence, the role of informal employment could not be assessed. • Unavailability of documentation: job-years and FTE numbers were based on information received from interviewees but could not be double-checked based on project documentation. It was also not possible to speak to representatives of CP 1 and CP 2, hence the numbers presented in this report should be interpreted with care. • Limited information about female employment: the numbers provided for female employment for CP 1, CP 2, and the OE were based throughout the years on a single %-value received during the interviews. Further investigation is needed in order to further detail the number and roles of women at different phases of hydropower construction projects. Endnote Component A3 has an additional budget of 6.5 million USD to finance other, non-LADP 1.  related E&S activities. However, data on jobs created by these other E&S related activities was not available and is therefore not included in the employment numbers of this report. JOBS GENERATED BY THE REGIONAL RUSUMO FALLS HYDROELECTRIC PROJECT 55 References Artelia. (2013a). Annexes to the Resettlement Action Plan (RAP), Annex 2: LADP. 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