Landscape Restoration Opportunities in the Naryn River Basin, the Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Opportunities Assessment Methodology (ROAM) Report March 2023 Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research EAER State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO Swiss Confederation CO-FOUNDED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION Landscape Restoration Opportunities in the Naryn River Basin, the Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Opportunities Assessment Methodology (ROAM) Report March 2023 © 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. 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Cover photo: Lukas Bischoff Photograph/Shutterstock.com CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS.................................................................................................ix ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS...............................................................................x ABSTRACT.....................................................................................................................1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY................................................................................................ 2 1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................ 7 1.1. Context......................................................................................................... 7 1.2. Purpose and overall methodology................................................................ 8 2. MAPPING OF LAND DEGRADATION AND RESTORATION OPPORTUNITIES...........10 2.1. Methodology...............................................................................................10 2.2. Results .......................................................................................................10 3. RESULTS OF RESTORATION ASSESSMENT............................................................15 3.1. Identification of suitable restoration measures...........................................15 3.1.1. Methodology.......................................................................................................15 3.1.2. Results...............................................................................................................16 iv 3.2. Restoration area prioritization .....................................................................17 3.2.1. Methodology.......................................................................................17 3.2.2. Forest area prioritized for restoration.................................................19 3.2.3. Pasture area prioritized for restoration............................................. 24 3.2.4. Agriculture area prioritized for restoration........................................ 26 3.3. Cost-benefit analysis of restoration measures........................................... 27 3.3.1. Methodology...................................................................................... 27 3.3.2. Forestry models ................................................................................ 30 3.3.3. Agricultural land models.................................................................... 32 3.3.4. Pasture models.................................................................................. 33 3.3.5. Protective land model........................................................................ 35 3.3.6. Total cost of restoration ................................................................... 36 3.3.7. Investment level economic results..................................................... 36 3.3.8. Carbon sequestration estimations and carbon costs........................ 37 3.4. Readiness assessment................................................................................ 39 3.4.1. Methodology...................................................................................... 39 3.4.2. Findings on readiness assessment.................................................... 40 3.5. Finance and investment options.................................................................. 42 3.6. Social and environmental benefits.............................................................. 46 3.7. Payment for ecosystem services (PES)....................................................... 48 3.7.1. National strategies and regulations.................................................... 48 3.7.2. PES pilots........................................................................................... 49 Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS 4. RESULTS FROM CAPACITY BUILDING....................................................................51 5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................ 52 5.1. Readiness preparedness ............................................................................. 52 5.2. Financing of restoration............................................................................... 53 5.3. Limitations and additional research............................................................ 54 BIBLIOGRAPHY ......................................................................................................... 56 ANNEX 1. Interviewed stakeholders........................................................................... 64 ANNEX 2. Badland identification................................................................................ 65 ANNEX 3. Restoration opportunities in the Naryn river basin leskhozes................... 66 ANNEX 4. Restoration Opportunities within pasture committees.............................. 67 ANNEX 5. Restoration Opportunities by Forest CROPS and CLASSES...................... 68 ANNEX 6. Degradation and Sedimentation Assessment ........................................... 70 ANNEX 7. Climate change screening.......................................................................... 88 ANNEX 8. Restoration measures and models: ........................................................ 100 ANNEX 9. Sensitivity analysis for CBA tables........................................................... 110 ANNEX 10. Assumptions for the carbon sequestration models................................ 114 ANNEX 11. Readiness assessment............................................................................120 ANNEX 12. Climate financing tracking .....................................................................127 ANNEX 13. Payment for Ecosystem Services............................................................ 131 ANNEX 14. Policy Brief..............................................................................................132 Figures v Figure 1: Location of the Naryn River Basin within the transboundary Syr-Darya Basin.......................................................................................................... 8 Figure 2: Study workflow............................................................................................ 9 Figure 3: Map of overall land degradation ................................................................ 11 Figure 4: Restoration feasibility map........................................................................ 13 Figure 5: Final map of restoration opportunities....................................................... 14 Figure 6: Priority Leskhozes for restoration activities.............................................. 18 Figure 7: Priority PCs for restoration activities......................................................... 19 Figure 8: Spruce and Juniperus restoration opportunity map with priority areas in and outside the Naryn River Basin ............................................................. 20 Figure 9: Restoration opportunity map for spruce and juniper degraded areas with priority areas in two focus regions in and outside the Naryn River Basin ........ 21 Figure 10: Pistachio and almond restoration opportunity map with priority areas outside the Naryn River Basin......................................................................... 22 Figure 11: Walnut restoration opportunity map with priority areas in and outside the Naryn River Basin.................................................................................. 23 Figure 12: Pasture restoration opportunity map with priority areas ......................... 24 Figure 13: Pasture restoration opportunities with priority areas in two Naryn River Basin regions......................................................................................... 26 Figure 14: Agricultural cropland areas: Deviation in SOC with an erosion indication, CollectEarth dataset .............................................................................. 27 Figure 15: Steps to conduct a CBA........................................................................... 28 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Figure 16: CBA models, per hectare......................................................................... 29 Figure 17: PES structure in the Kyrgyz Republic....................................................... 50 Figure 18: Badland identification map......................................................................65 Figure 19: Soil organic carbon map of the Kyrgyz Republic......................................71 Figure 20: Seasonal NDVI profiles, 2001–2020........................................................ 73 Figure 21: Agroclimatic classes map of the Kyrgyz Republic based combined land use, precipitation, and elevation datasets........................................ 75 Figure 22: Average NDVI across the Kyrgyz Republic based on all available MODIS images, 2001–2020....................................................................... 76 Figure 23: Elevation map of the Kyrgyz Republic ..................................................... 77 Figure 24: Slope of land in the Kyrgyz Republic....................................................... 77 Figure 25: Mean annual total precipitation, 1981-2020 ........................................... 78 Figure 26: Simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), 1981–2020............................ 79 Figure 27: USLE soil erodibility factor (K) in the Kyrgyz Republic............................80 Figure 28: Sediment delivery ratio (SDR) Conceptual Approach.............................. 81 Figure 29: Sediment delivery ratio in the Naryn River Basin..................................... 82 Figure 30: Overall land degradation with six qualitative classes..............................83 Figure 31: Sediment source areas with three qualitative classes for the Naryn River Basin..........................................................................................84 Figure 32: Differences in the absolute heights of the reservoir bottom, 1960-2008................................................................................................................85 Figure 33: Average monthly inflow and outflow (release) of vi Toktogul Reservoir, 2000–2010 ...............................................................................86 Figure 34: Correlation between sediment flows and river discharge at Uch-Terek post, average annual values, 1964-1992............................................86 Figure 35: Average annual maximum and minimum daily temperatures, ERA-5 dataset with trendline ...................................................................................90 Figure 36: Seasonality in temperature, ERA-5 dataset............................................. 91 Figure 37. Total yearly and maximum one-day precipitation, ERA-5 dataset with trendline.................................................................................... 91 Figure 38: Seasonality of precipitation, ERA-5 database......................................... 92 Figure 39: Time series of mean yearly temperature based on ERA5 dataset for the historical period (1979-2019), and NASA NEX (per model bias corrected) for the future period................................................................................................. 92 Figure 40: Time series of total yearly precipitation based on ERA5 dataset for the historical period (1979-2019), and NASA NEX (per model bias corrected) for the future period.................................................................................................93 Figure 41: Average temperature and precipitation changes.....................................93 Figure 42: Average daily temperature per month for historical (1976–2005) and future (2015–2045; 2045–2075) time horizons under the two RCP scenarios........94 Figure 43: Average total monthly precipitation per month for historical (1976–2005) and future (2015–2045; 2045–2075) time horizons under the two RCP scenarios..............................................................................................94 Figure 44: Boxplots indicating the spread in climate model predictions of maximum daily temperature per year (TXX) for the historical (1976-2005) and future time periods under two RCP scenarios...................................................95 Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Figure 45: Boxplots indicating the spread in climate model predictions of maximum 1-day precipitation sum per year (Rx1Day) for the historical (1976–2005) and future time periods under two RCP scenarios.............................. 95 Figure 46: Boxplots indicating the spread in climate model predictions of precipitation intensity (SDII) for the historical (1976–2005) and future time periods under two RCP scenarios.....................................................................96 Figure 47: Boxplots indicating the spread in climate model predictions of Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) for the historical (1976–2005) and future time periods under two RCP scenarios.............................................................................96 Figure 48: Loans issued by commercial banks in the Kyrgyz Republic, 2016-2017............................................................................................................... 129 Figure A1: Map of overall land degradation............................................................. 133 Figure A2: Map of restoration opportunities within and outside Naryn River Basin, constructed from the overall land degradation map with non-feasible areas subtracted................................................................................ 134 Tables Table 1: Overall land degradation statistics for each sub-basin................................12 Table 2: Restoration opportunity statistics for each sub-basin................................ 14 Table 3: Evaluation criteria for the assessment of the restoration measures........... 15 Table 4: Prioritized restoration measures in and outside the Naryn River Basin.........16 Table 5: Overall spruce and juniper restoration opportunity statistics for each Leskhoz ...................................................................................... 21 Table 6: Overall pistachio and almond restoration opportunity statistics vii for each sub-basin ................................................................................................... 22 Table 7: Overall walnut restoration opportunity statistics for each sub-basin......... 24 Table 8: Overall pasture restoration opportunity statistics for each sub-basin....... 25 Table 9: Pasture restoration opportunity statistics (classes 3–6) for each prioritized PC............................................................................................................ 25 Table 10: Walnut afforestation model benefits, 20-year period ...............................30 Table 11: Walnut afforestation model costs, Year 1, US$/ha..................................... 31 Table 12: Walnut afforestation model assumptions.................................................. 31 Table 13: Forest model CBA...................................................................................... 32 Table 14: Water use efficiency improvement model inputs, Year 1, US$/ha............. 32 Table 15: Agricultural land model CBA......................................................................33 Table 16: Grazing ban pasture model, Year 1, US$/ha..............................................34 Table 17: Grazing ban pasture model annual benefits..............................................34 Table 18: Pasture model CBA.................................................................................... 35 Table 19: Cost of green infrastructure for riverbank protection, US$....................... 35 Table 20: Protected Lands CBA ...............................................................................36 Table 21: Investment-level economic results............................................................36 Table 22: Restoration measures and their GHG emissions balance, tCO2e/ha/year..........................................................................................................39 Table 23: Key dimensions for FLR readiness............................................................40 Table 24: Readiness assessment key findings.......................................................... 41 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 25: Suggested investments per restoration measure in and outside the Naryn Basin per hectare, US$............................................................................43 Table 26: Carbon price sensitivity of restoration options.........................................45 Table 27: Restoration measures and their ecosystem and social services...............46 Table 28: Restoration opportunities in the Naryn River Basin Leskhozes.................66 Table 29: Restoration opportunities within pasture committees.............................. 67 Table 30: Overall Spruce and Juniperus Restoration Opportunity statistics for each subbasin.....................................................................................................68 Table 31: Overall Pistachio / Almond Restoration Opportunity statistics for each Leskhoz......................................................................................................68 Table 32: Overall Walnut Restoration Opportunity statistics for each Leskhoz......... 69 Table 33: List of data sources.................................................................................. 70 Table 34: Division of pasture types and grazing periods.......................................... 73 Table 35: Class divisions according to Land use, Elevation and Total Annual Precipitation......................................................................................... 74 Table 36: Overall land degradation statistics for each subbasin..............................83 Table 37: CLIMDEX precipitation indices used in the study.....................................89 Table 38: Average climate change (delta values) in total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature predicted by the full climate model (GCM) ensemble ........................................................................................... 97 Table 39: Spread in Climate Model (GCM) ensemble predictions for future changes in total annual precipitation............................................................. 97 Table 40: Spread in Climate Model (GCM) ensemble predictions for future changes in mean annual temperature............................................................98 viii Table 41: Restoration measures and models.......................................................... 100 Table 42: Discount rate sensitivity analysis in restoration models.......................... 110 Table 43: Sensitivity analysis to cost increase in forestry models...........................111 Table 44: Discount rate sensitivity analysis in agricultural lands............................ 112 Table 45: Sensitivity analysis to cost increase in agricultural lands models........... 112 Table 46: Discount rate sensitivity analysis in pasture models............................... 112 Table 47: Sensitivity analysis to cost increase in pasture models........................... 113 Table 48: Discount rate sensitivity analysis in protected land models.................... 113 Table 49: Sensitivity analysis to cost increase in protected land models................ 113 Table 50: Afforestation / reforestation with pistachio, walnut, and almond............ 114 Table 51: Afforestation / reforestation with spruce and juniper............................... 114 Table 52: Afforestation / reforestation in riparian forests........................................ 115 Table 53: Assisted natural regeneration in pistachio, walnut, and almond forests.................................................................................................. 115 Table 54: Assisted natural regeneration in spruce and juniper forests................... 116 Table 55: Agriculture – efficient use of water resources......................................... 116 Table 56: Agriculture – no tillage / minimum tillage................................................. 117 Table 57: Agriculture – introduction of crop rotation and cover crops..................... 118 Table 58: Agroforestry – walnut / fruit..................................................................... 118 Table 59: Agroforestry – poplar............................................................................... 119 Table A1: Cost-benefit analysis of prioritized restoration measures....................... 135 Table A2: Recommendations.................................................................................. 136 Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Acknowledgments This Restoration Opportunities Assessment Methodology (ROAM) Report for the Naryn River Basin, the Kyrgyz Republic, was developed by a World Bank core team led by Drita Dade (Senior Natural Resources Management), Juan-Pablo Castaneda (Environmental Economist), Paola Agostini (Lead Natural Resources Management Specialist), and Leela Reina (Environmental Economist), in collaboration with Unique Land Use GmbH, Future Water, CAMP Alatoo, and Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences (CAIAG)1 Special thanks go to the following peer reviewers for their valuable contributions to the report: Nalin M. Kishor (Forestry Specialist), Sergio Vallesi (Environmental and Water Resource Engineer), Dzenan Malovic (Energy Specialist), and Yun Wu (Energy Specialist). In addition, the team would like to thank Kseniya Lvovsky (Practice Manager, Environment, Natural Resources and Blue Economy for the Europe and Central Asia Region) and Naveed Hassan Naqvi (Country Manager for the Kyrgyz Republic) for their guidance and support. The team is grateful to the World Bank Water and Energy & Extractives Global Practices for the information provided. The team also extends its profound ix gratitude to the many stakeholders from governmental, nongovernmental, and private institutions who supported this work with their knowledge and insights as well as through data provided to the team, especially the State Forest Service, the Ministry of Agriculture’s Forest Policy, Pasture and Livestock and Plant Production Departments, the Kyrgyz National Agrarian University, and the Toktogul Hydropower Plant administration. This publication was produced with financial support from the Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP), a multi-donor partnership administered by the World Bank and funded by the European Union, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Financial support from PROGREEN and the Program for Asia Connectivity and Trade (PACT) is also gratefully acknowledged. 1 The consultant team was led by Paul Borsy and included Simon Charré, Gijs Simons, Brecht D’Haeyer, Johannes Hunink, Zhyrgal Kozhomberdiev, Azamat Isakov, Rahat Sabyrbekov, Bolot Moldobekov, Alexander Mandychev, Sheishenaly Usupaev, and Nargiza Shaidyldaeva. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Abbreviations and Acronyms BAU Business As Usual BCR Benefit-Cost Ratio CAIAG Central Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences CAMP Central Asian Mountain Partnership CBA Cost-Benefit Analysis CBD Convention on Biological Diversity CDO Climate Data Operator CHIRPS Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station CNBL Channel Network Base Level ELD Economics of Land Degradation EX-ACT EX-Ante Carbon Balance Tool FAO Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations FDI Foreign Direct Investment x FLR Forest Landscape Restoration FTE Full-Time Equivalent GCF Green Climate Fund GCM Global Circulation Model GHG Greenhouse Gas GIS Geographic Information System GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (German Agency for International Cooperation) HAC High Activity Clay HPP Hydropower Plant IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development InVEST Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IRR Internal Rate of Return IUCN International Union for Conservation of Nature LU Livestock Unit MODIS Moderate resolution Imaging Spectrometer NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Abbreviations and Acronyms NEX-GDDP NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections NPV Net Present Value NTFP Non-Timber Forest Product ODA Official Development Assistance PC Pasture Committee PES Payment for Ecosystem Services PESTLE Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal, and Environmental RCP Representative Concentration Pathway RESILAND Resilient Landscape Restoration RKDF Russian-Kyrgyz Development Fund ROAM Restoration Opportunities Assessment Methodology SAEPF State Agency for Environmental Protection and Forestry (now SFS) SDC Swiss Development Cooperation xi SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SDR Sediment Delivery Ratio SFS State Forest Service (former SAEPF, State Agency for Environmental Protection and Forestry) SFF State Forest Fund SOC Soil Organic Carbon SRTM Shutter Radar Topography Mission UNDP United Nations Development Programme USLE Universal Soil Loss Equation WRI World Resources Institute CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Abstract This report outlines the main results of the study based on the Restoration Opportunities Assessment Methodology (ROAM) conducted in the Naryn River Basin, the Kyrgyz Republic. This assessment identifies degraded forest and pasture areas, considers the potential correlation between land degradation and sedimentation in hydropower reservoirs, and proposes feasible and effective landscape restoration measures for the Naryn River Basin. The study also presents several recommendations to fast-track the implementation of proposed interventions for the Naryn River Basin and scale up to other degraded areas throughout the country. 1 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Executive Summary Context appear to put the plant at imminent risk of storage capacity loss. There are no recent and The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the countries comprehensive data to verify this assumption in Central Asia most vulnerable to land by assessing the correlations between land degradation and climate change impacts. degradation in the Naryn River Basin and Climate-related disasters and land degradation due sedimentation in the reservoir. to unsustainable land use practices already affect the rural and urban population, which depends on Landscape restoration refers to a wide natural resources and critical infrastructure. variety of nature-based interventions that fall under the umbrella of investment in Land degradation hotspots are observed ‘green infrastructure’. Typical landscape throughout the country, particularly along restoration interventions include slope correction the northern and western borders, including using terracing, gulley stabilization, contour in the Naryn River Basin. The Naryn River Basin trenching and bunding; planting hedgerows and was selected for this study to assess potential cover crops; implementing reforestation and opportunities for landscape restoration because afforestation; establishing orchards, woodlots, 2 of its transboundary importance for energy and silvopastures; and revising grazing practices. generation and provision of irrigation water. The Landscape restoration provides many Toktogul hydropower plant (HPP), fed by the Naryn ecosystem services and has a positive impact River and the single largest HPP in the Kyrgyz on many sectors of the economy, including Republic, provides up to 50 percent of the total energy, irrigation, agriculture, water supply, national electricity production (1,200 MW) and and transport. Reduced soil erosion and plays a vital role in the country’s energy security.2 downstream impacts of sediment movement and The loss of active storage capacity due accumulation are among the most visible and to reservoir sedimentation, as a result of immediate results. land degradation, is significant in Central Other key ecosystem services include Asia and many other regions worldwide.3 improved water holding capacity, water Soil erosion and sediment concentration also affect harvesting, flow stabilization, flood regulation, the performance of dams, hydropower generation groundwater recharge, water provision, water plants, and irrigation infrastructure.4 quality, biodiversity, soil fertility, pasture The current rate of sedimentation in the health, and land productivity. Landscape Toktogul hydropower reservoir does not restoration interventions can also be targeted 2 Other important HPPs in the Naryn River Basin include Kurpsay (800 MW), Tash-Komur (450 MW), Kambar-Ata-2 (production: 90 MW – full capacity: 360 MW), Shamaldy-Say (240 MW), Uch-Korgon (180 MW), and At-Bashy (40 MW). http://www.cawater-info.net/analysis/register/pdf/hps_kg_r.pdf 3 A 2023 study undertaken by the United Nations University’s Institute for Water, Environment and Health (UNU-INWEH) reveals that the original global storage capacity lost to sediment by 2050 will amount to 1.65 trillion m3, equal to the combined annual water use of India, China, Indonesia, France, and Canada, significantly undermining water security, irrigation, and power generation. https://inweh.unu.edu/trapped-sediment-robbing-worlds-large-dams-of-vital-water-storage-capacity-26-loss-by-2050-foreseen/ 4 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032115004517. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS to increase climate adaptation and resilience erodibility, slope, and others were analyzed in a and to reduce the risk associated with natural remote sensing software. The resulting maps were disasters exacerbated by climate change like validated by ground truthing. floods, droughts, and mass movements such as The study also assessed the correlation erosion, transport, and accumulation of material between land degradation and sedimentation on slopes due to gravitational forces. At the same of the Toktogul hydropower reservoir. For this, time, landscape interventions provide a means the Sediment Delivery module of the Integrated for climate mitigation through improved carbon Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade- storage and sequestration. offs (InVEST) model was used.7 The results from Landscape restoration interventions InVEST were embedded in the remote sensing generate on-site socioeconomic benefits analysis. Climate change risk screening was to communities. These include new jobs performed to identify the potential implications of in construction and maintenance of green climate change on land degradation in the Naryn infrastructure; provision of non-timber forest River Basin and indirectly on sediment transport products (NTFPs, that is, nuts), fuelwood, and to the Toktogul hydropower reservoir (Section 2 fodder for livestock production; and improvement and Annex 6). of livelihoods from woodlots, agroforestry, The methodology applied included a and silvopasture practices. Business cases prioritization process of restoration measures concerning land restoration are typically built based on socioeconomic analysis, policy around several such benefits.5 review, stakeholders’ consultation, and readiness assessment (Section 1.2, Figure 2). Purpose and Methodology The socioeconomic benefits assessed include on-site benefits to communities and the potential 3 The purpose of this study is to identify benefits for hydropower and irrigation facilities, degraded areas and propose feasible and which are the most prevalent in the Naryn River effective landscape restoration measures Basin as well as global benefits such as carbon for the Naryn River Basin, using the sequestration. Restoration Opportunities Assessment Methodology (ROAM),6 with an outlook for A cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted similar applications to other areas in the for each proposed restoration measure in and country. ROAM is a framework developed by the outside the Naryn River Basin (Section 3.3). This International Union for Conservation of Nature analysis was based on a per hectare model for all (IUCN) and the World Resources Institute (WRI) measures, except for green and grey infrastructure to conduct forest and landscape restoration measures which were calculated for 100 linear opportunity assessments and identify specific meters of infrastructure. priority areas at national or subnational level. A final refinement of priority areas that were Degradation hotspots, areas that are vulnerable suitable for restoration was undertaken. Using to degradation and restoration opportunities, the results of the CBA, the list of priority areas were identified (Section 2 and Annex 6). For in and outside the Naryn River Basin was tailored this, various parameters such as Normalized to the maximum cost of a realistic restoration Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), soil organic investment, which was assumed to be US$50 carbon (SOC), elevation, rainfall intensity, soil million. 5 UNCCD Global Land Outlook. 6 https://www.wri.org/research/restoration-opportunities-assessment-methodology-roam 7 https://invest.readthedocs.io/en/latest/ CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Main Results and Recommendations it possible to clearly define degraded croplands. The limited size of priority forest areas is related to The land degradation assessment has the basin’s low forest cover, due to harsh climate, identified highly degraded and vulnerable poor soil conditions, and widespread grazing. areas in the entire country first and then in the Naryn River Basin, which was the focus At the same workshop, a final list of 12 of the study. At the national level, degraded restoration measures was elaborated in forest, pastures and forests represent an area of more pasture, agricultural, and protective lands than 1.5 million ha (8 percent of the total country (Table 4 in Section 3.1.2). area), while for the Naryn River Basin degraded The CBA for each of these 12 restoration areas amount to 511,985 ha (10 percent of the measures demonstrates that nine of them total Naryn River Basin area). Within the Naryn generate economic benefits over the 20-year River Basin, the Kokomeren River watershed reference period (Table 13, Table 15, Table 18, shows the highest level of land degradation, with and Table 20 in Section 3.3). Riverbank protection 15.5 percent of its area distributed in the most offers the greatest benefits from avoided damage significant degradation classes8 (Figure 3 and to infrastructure and settlements. In forest lands, Table 1 in Section 2.2). afforestation with nut-bearing trees (walnuts or The restoration opportunity assessment pistachio) also provides multiple direct benefits, has identified that all highly degraded and including nuts and hay production. Similar vulnerable areas, both at the national level activities in spruce forests, which is the most and in the Naryn River Basin, offered high common species in the Naryn River Basin, do not restoration opportunities (Table 2 in Section provide immediate economic benefits due to slow 2.2). This is because areas classified as highly tree growth under harsh mountain conditions. All 4 degraded overlap with areas where human activity agricultural and pastureland restoration measures is present, which means they are productive lands generate economic benefits among which and are accessible. improved irrigation and no tillage produce the In the Naryn River Basin, the areas with high greatest benefits. restoration opportunities (classes 3–6) were The proposed restoration measures also further refined to take account of the capacity provide important environmental services. of land managers and users, which is key to the Ecosystem services were described for each success of restoration programs. This was done restoration measure (Table 27) and include carbon at a stakeholder workshop where participants sequestration and a flat value of US$6.8 per ha9, identified a final list of four experienced state which were included in the CBA. forest enterprises and 14 pasture committees (PCs), all located in the Naryn River Basin, where The up-front investment based on the CBA, restoration measures should take place. As a which is required to restore all of priority result, 92,815 ha of pastures (Table 9 in Section lands identified in the Naryn River Basin and 3.2) and 420 ha of forests (Table 5 in Section 3.2) in other parts of the country, is too high to be were identified as priority areas for restoration realistically financed. Hence, a final refinement in the Naryn River Basin. No agricultural land for of the priority areas for restoration was conducted. restoration was identified, as the methodology It only considered the most degraded areas used in the degradation assessment did not make (degradation classes 4–6 or 5–6 depending on the 8 The six degradation classes are defined as follows: (1) No Degradation, Minor Vulnerability, (2) No Degradation, Major Vulnerability, (3) Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability, (4) Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability, (5) Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability, (6) Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability. The most significant degradation classes correspond to classes 3–6. 9 Economics of Land Degradation (ELD) study in the Kyrgyz Republic. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS type of land) within and outside the Naryn River It is assumed that the direct restoration costs Basin. would be almost equally shared between international cooperation organizations The areas prioritized in this final selection and development banks and third parties, amount to 50,027 ha. This includes 39,818 ha including government funds and investments of pastures, 8,909 ha of forests, and 1,300 ha from the private sector and local stakeholders. of cropland. All of the 39,818 ha of pastures are According to the assessment, this would amount included in the Naryn River Basin, as grazing is the to US$22.51 million to be financed from third main land use in the area. Most of the 8,909 ha parties and US$22,85 million from international of forests areas are located directly outside the cooperation organizations and development basin (Figure 9, Figure 10, and Figure 11), and only banks. 420 ha are located in the basin. The 1,300 ha of cropland have been determined by national experts The overall net present value (NPV) of the because the land degradation analysis could not proposed restoration program amounts to capture degraded agricultural land. These 1,300 US$93.33 million at a 8 percent discount ha are located in the Naryn River Basin (column rate and over a 20-year time horizon. The ‘target area description’ in Table 25). discounted cost-benefit ratio of the investment is 2.4, that is, US$2.4 is generated from the Based on the results of the CBA and the final investment of US$1. The return on investment prioritization of areas that are most suitable for was calculated at 138 percent. There are also restoration (50,027 ha), the total up-front cost nonmonetary benefits which would contribute to for restoration (total investment costs in the improved livelihoods through environmental and first year of implementation) was estimated socioeconomic benefits such as employment, at US$45.36 million. This includes US$43.07 access to wood and non-wood forest products, 5 million for direct restoration costs and US$2.28 and increase of income, among others. million for capacity building, consultancies, and The assessment of the correlation between investment management (Table 25). continued land degradation and potential land Blended financing is recommended to cover restoration and sedimentation in the Toktogul this up-front cost of restoration to scale hydropower reservoir was not conclusive. landscape restoration in the Kyrgyz Republic. It InVEST-based modeling found a linear relation combines funds from the state budget, taxes and between soil loss and sediment deposition, which incentives, private investments from landowners was characterized by a 26 percent Sediment or land lease holders, and investments from Delivery Ratio (SDR) on average. However, this international cooperation organizations and assessment was based on the limited data that development banks, as well as loans through local were available. For this reason, it was also not banks or specific funds. possible to determine a more precise impact of Additional financial resources in sustainable restoration (Section 2 and Annex 6). land management can be streamlined toward Nevertheless, it is assumed that the prioritized landscape restoration interventions. Carbon restoration measures can contribute to financing available from the emerging voluntary reduced sedimentation overall in existing carbon market can also be considered. Leveraging and commissioned hydropower and irrigation finance for restoration through a payment for reservoirs within the Naryn River Basin. ecosystem services (PES) mechanism is also an Moreover, the benefits of landscape restoration effective option in the Kyrgyz Republic although for these reservoirs are likely to increase with it first requires upgrades in legislation and in the the escalating impacts of climate change on public finance management system. sediment and water regimes, as the Naryn CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic River will turn increasingly into a rain-fed river change. In-depth studies, integrating climate due to the melting of glaciers and reduction of modelling approaches with field observations, snow cover. will require new bathymetric surveys and revision of the dead storage capacity of existing Local land users and managers have good and proposed reservoirs in the Naryn River Basin. knowledge of pasture degradation and This information would allow to identify the restoration. Local capacity is increasing through reservoirs at higher risk of siltation in the short training provided by government institutions and term and medium term along the Naryn River under various international cooperation projects. and to prioritize landscape restoration measures, There are successful examples of local land targeting the reservoirs that are more prone to managers cooperating to combine resources and future siltation. implement restoration interventions in pasture and forest lands. The proposed interventions can also contribute to disaster alleviation and natural There are opportunities to improve strategies hazard risk reduction although this was not and multilateral processes connected with directly assessed. Improved soil structure landscape restoration and the coordination and vegetation cover, in combination with other of restoration efforts between the pasture, disaster alleviation activities, can improve ground agriculture, forest, and energy sectors. Based stabilization, thereby increasing the basin’s on the assessment, there are limited capacity- resilience to mudflows, landslides, rockfalls, and building mechanisms in place in the forest and slumping. Landscape restoration can also help pasture sectors and there are few successful reduce flooding hazards and increase watershed examples of restoration of degraded agricultural drought tolerance and water retention. These land. Knowledge sharing on land restoration 6 benefits, which will become more significant as remains highly dependent on initiatives from the impacts of climate change escalate, were not international cooperation organizations or estimated, and further investigations are required development banks. Permanent educational to assess the full potential in natural hazards structures such as training facilities for the reduction. continuous capacity building of land users and managers would be beneficial. Some of the proposed financing options require institutional and legal preconditions which need to be further researched. The issuance of Limitations and further studies carbon credits is not yet regulated in the Kyrgyz Further studies are recommended to confirm Republic, although there are ongoing efforts to the potential correlation between land establish a supportive legislative framework. degradation, sedimentation, and storage Further studies are needed to explore realistic loss for reservoirs in the Naryn River Basin, options for leveraging voluntary carbon market considering the implications of climate financing and to assess their time horizon. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS 1. Introduction 1.1. Context and accumulation of sediments; (b) more variable inflows into the reservoirs due to more frequent The Kyrgyz Republic ranks second within the and severe peak inflows, which also increase Central Asian region in terms of vulnerability to reservoirs’ vulnerabilities; and (c) reduced dam climate change during the period 2000–2019, after safety and increased operational risks due to Tajikistan (Eckstein, Kunzel, and Schafer 2021). upstream sediment build-up. Climate-related disasters already affect the rural population, which is highly dependent on natural According to the available knowledge and resources. To address these challenges, the data, the current rate of sedimentation in the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic has expressed Toktogul hydropower reservoir does not appear interest in forest landscape restoration (FLR). The to put the plant at imminent risk of storage Kyrgyz Republic pledged to restore 23,200 ha of capacity loss. There are, however, no recent and forests and 300,000 ha of pastures until 2030 comprehensive data to assess the correlation in the Astana Resolution (2019) under the Bonn between land degradation in the Naryn River Basin Challenge. The Kyrgyz Republic also joined the and sedimentation in the reservoir. Downstream Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia 30 (ECCA 30) of the Toktogul dam, the Naryn River flows into initiative10, which will support countries from this 7 Uzbekistan and later into Kazakhstan, forming the region to achieve their land restoration objectives. Syr-Darya River, which feeds the northern part The Regional Program on Resilient Landscape of the Aral Sea (Figure 1). The Naryn River Basin Restoration (RESILAND) aims to reverse land water management is, therefore, of paramount degradation and increase the contribution transboundary importance. of natural capital to economic recovery and development, with a particular focus on cross- Landscape restoration includes various nature- border landscapes and collective efforts. based interventions that fall under the umbrella of investment in ‘green infrastructure’, such as soil The Toktogul hydropower plant (HPP), fed by the stabilization, tree plantations in various designs, Naryn River, provides up to 50 percent of the total and low-impact grazing practices. electricity production in the country and plays a vital role in the country’s energy security. In addition, These interventions may provide economic the Toktogul Reservoir is also used to provide benefits and various ecosystem services to irrigation water. The loss of active storage capacity key sectors of the economy, including energy, due to reservoir sedimentation, as a result of land irrigation, agriculture, water supply, and transport. degradation, is significant in many regions of the They also provide other ecosystem services world and the Kyrgyz Republic is no exception. Soil such as improved water holding capacity, water erosion and sediment concentration also affect the harvesting, flow stabilization, flood regulation, performance of dams and hydropower generation groundwater recharge, water provision, water plants in different ways: (a) efficiency loss and quality, biodiversity, soil fertility, pasture health, increased maintenance costs related to passage and land productivity. 10 Initiative for bringing Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia into restoration by 2030 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Figure 1: Location of the Naryn River Basin within the transboundary Syr-Darya Basin Kyrgyz Republic Restoration 0 50 100 km Naryn Basin Opportunities Assessment National borders Location of Naryn Basin within Syr Darya stream network Date: 2023-01-30 the trans boundary Syr Darya Basin Syr Darya Basin 8 EPSG:9701 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Finally, landscape restoration interventions (IUCN) and the World Resources Institute (WRI) generate on-site socioeconomic benefits to to conduct forest and landscape restoration communities such as new jobs in construction and opportunity assessments and identify specific maintenance of green infrastructure; provision of priority areas at national or subnational level. non-timber forest products (NTFPs, i.e., nuts), The methodology includes a prioritization process fuelwood, and fodder for livestock production; of restoration measures based on socioeconomic and improvement of livelihoods from woodlots, analysis, policy review, stakeholders’ consultation, agroforestry, and silvopasture practices. and a readiness assessment. For each of the proposed restoration measures, a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) was conducted to assess their 1.2. Purpose and overall methodology potential to generate long-term economic benefits. The purpose of this study is to identify degraded The report also analyzes how land restoration in areas and propose feasible and effective landscape the Naryn River Basin could potentially decrease restoration measures for the Naryn River Basin the amount of sediment flowing into the Toktogul and the Kyrgyz Republic, using the Restoration hydropower reservoir. The detailed methodology Opportunities Assessment Methodology used to perform the above steps is described in (ROAM). ROAM is a framework developed by the 11 the appropriate sections of the report (2.1, 3.1.1, International Union for Conservation of Nature 3.2.1, 3.3.1, and 3.4.1). 11 https://www.wri.org/research/restoration-opportunities-assessment-methodology-roam Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Figure 2 gives an overview of the overall study workflow and logic. Figure 2: Study workflow Step 1. Step 2. Step 3. Step 4. Step 5. Step 6. Identification Mapping Prioritization Restoration Readiness Analysis of of degradation feasibility of restoration areas assessment finance and hotspots and interventions options (CBA, mapping investment sediment and validation GHG) and options sourcing, restoration including areas validation Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: GHG = Greenhouse gas. The results of the study are expected to help the Land restoration is expected to prevent long-term Government of the Kyrgyz Republic make informed losses in hydropower production and generate decisions for the restoration of degraded lands additional monetary and nonmonetary benefits at in the country and to define the most suitable local, national, and global levels. financing mechanisms to restore degraded lands. 9 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic 2. Mapping of Land Degradation and Restoration Opportunities 2.1. Methodology ‘badland’ (naturally non-productive areas) mask is presented in Annex 2. The detailed methodology for mapping baseline land degradation, vulnerability to degradation, The topographic and geographic situation of and feasibility of interventions is described in the individual sites influences their potential impact Data Collection and Baseline Report. In addition, on sedimentation. Factors such as upslope and the results of this satellite remote sensing-based downslope land cover, slope gradient, size of the assessment were validated in discussions with upstream area, and distance to a stream can be local experts and stakeholders and through the used to quantify an ‘index of connectivity’. This observations made and meetings held during the index represents the likelihood that material eroded September 2021 field visits. from a certain site will reach a stream sink and thereby contribute to siltation. To take account of A crucial point of feedback from the field visits, this connectivity dimension, the Sediment Delivery as presented in the previously submitted Data Ratio (SDR) module of the Integrated Valuation 10 Collection and Baseline Report, was the observation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) that unproductive lands (‘badland’ areas) in model was applied. This assessment was based several regions were assigned a degradation class on the limited data that were available. For this in the mapping. However, these lands are naturally reason, the default InVEST values are used in this unproductive, for example, saline soils, and study, resulting in limited accuracy. should not be considered degraded or potential Differences in degraded extents between this targets for restoration measures. As a result, the study and other studies, like the recent Nationally degradation maps were updated by removing these Determined Contribution (NDC) update, occur badlands from the degradation classification. since there were differences in methodologies, Discussions with Central Asian Institute for Applied definitions, and assumptions used. In general, Geosciences (CAIAG) experts resulted in a most based on discussions with local experts, choices in appropriate approach to ‘masking’ these areas, the identification of degradation were more on the using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index conservative side. Among other differences, the (NDVI) and soil organic carbon (SOC) data. The assessment included a more rigorous exclusion most accurate badland mask was created using of ‘badlands’, considered as degraded summer an upper NDVI threshold of 0.2 (the mean value pastures in the NDC update and other studies. for 2000–2020), and this layer was used to extract unproductive lands from the maps. An NDVI value typically ranges between −1 and 1. Low positive 2.2. Results values, that is, 0.2, represent shrub and grassland Figure 3 shows the updated map resulting from the and thus exclude the unproductive lands. Hence, overall degradation assessment, composed of both all the negative values, and values below 0.2, the baseline degradation and vulnerability mapping were left out during this operation. This updated as described in Annex 6 (previously included in Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS the Data Collection and Baseline Report). Six vulnerability can be observed in the western classes were defined based on the combinations part of the Kyrgyz Republic and directly to the of the three qualitative classes indicating baseline southeast of Issyk Kul Lake. Within the Naryn degradation and the two showing vulnerability River Basin, stretches along the basin’s northern to soil erosion. The resulting classes are as edge are considered degraded. Compared to follows: (1) No Degradation, Minor Vulnerability, the map presented in the Data Collection and (2) No Degradation, Major Vulnerability, (3) Baseline Report, large parts of the Naryn South Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability, (4) sub-basin are now regarded as unproductive lands Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability, (5) Major and excluded from the classification. This is in Degradation, Minor Vulnerability, and (6) Major line with field observations and was validated by Degradation, Major Vulnerability. national partners at the subsequent workshop on Hotspots of significant degradation and/or December 3, 2021. Figure 3: Map of overall land degradation 11 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Degradation Basin Opportunities Assessment No Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (1) Naryn Basin No Degradation, Major Vulnerability (2) Kokomeren Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (3) Naryn South Degradation Map accounting Naryn East Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability (4) for Badlands, Crop land Toktogul Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (5) and Water (Updated) Date: 2021-11-30 Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability (6) EPSG: 32243 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: White areas contain non-forest or pastureland use classes (for example, high mountain areas, croplands, water bodies) and include the badlands extracted through the mask presented in Annex 2. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 1 presents for each class of degradation and that are degraded to a certain extent. The extent vulnerability the extent to which it occurs at the of degradation is more significant in the Naryn national, basin, and sub-basin levels. According to River Basin (511,985 ha or 10 percent of area) and this assessment, including classes 3−6, over 1.5 highest within the Kokomeren Watershed, at 15.5 million ha (8 percent of the total area) at the percent of the total sub-basin area. national level consists of pastures and forests Table 1: Overall land degradation statistics for each sub-basin Kyrgyz Naryn Naryn Basin Naryn Basin Toktogul Kokomeren Class12 Republic Basin South East Watershed Watershed   ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % 1 3,771,563 18.9 943,867 18.3 369,721 15.6 79,949 7.8 341,948 40.8 152,207 16.6 2 505,130 2.5 212,416 4.1 64,139 2.7 36,437 3.5 33,074 3.9 78,752 8.6 3 909,624 4.6 290,933 5.6 155,431 6.6 17,659 1.7 53,099 6.3 64,737 7.1 4 389,417 2.0 179,998 3.5 56,668 2.4 44,210 4.3 14,653 1.7 64,452 7.0 5 212,256 1.1 11,186 0.2 6,601 0.3 613 0.1 2,006 0.2 1,963 0.2 12 6 59,910 0.3 29,868 0.6 10,474 0.4 7,032 0.7 1,667 0.2 10,680 1.2 Total classes 1,571,207 - 511,985 - 229,174 - 69,514 - 71,425 - 141,832 - 3–6 Total 5,847,900 - 1,668,268 - 663,034 - 185,900 - 446,447 - 372,791 - Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Class IDs correspond with those listed in the legend of Figure 6. Percentage total not equal to 100 due to non-applicable areas in the region. To inform the planning of restoration activities, threshold values of elevation (3,500 m above sea it is essential to combine the overall degradation level) and slope (30 degrees) and by excluding map of Figure 3 with an assessment of practical protected areas. The result of the SDR/InVEST feasibility of implementing restoration measures model, which indicates a linear relation between soil by excluding high altitude areas, steep slopes, loss and sediment deposition (characterized by a and protected areas. As described in the Data 26 percent SDR on average), was also considered Collection and Baseline Report, this mapping of as an additional restoration suitability criteria.The restoration feasibility was performed by combining resulting feasibility map is shown in Figure 4. 1212 12 The degradation classes are (1) No Degradation, Minor Vulnerability, (2) No Degradation, Major Vulnerability, (3) Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability, (4) Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability, (5) Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability, (6) Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Figure 4: Restoration feasibility map Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Basin Feasibility Map Opportunities Assessment 13 Kokomeren Naryn East Not Feasible Naryn South Toktogul Feasible Restoration Feasibility based on Topography Date: 2021-11-30 EPSG: 32243 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Figure 5 then integrates the overall degradation subtraction by the feasibility map. Areas are like map and the feasibility assessment to map those in Table 1, except for class 1. This is because restoration opportunities. Here, only classes areas classified as ‘no degradation’ overlap with 3–6 (where a certain extent of degradation was terrain having high altitudes and steep slopes, observed) were considered potentially relevant for where typically there is no temporal trend in NDVI implementing restoration activities. Table 2 lists and little human activity is present. the areas assigned to each degradation class after CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Figure 5: Final map of restoration opportunities Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Degradation Basin Opportunities Assessment Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (3) Naryn Basin Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability (4) Kokomeren Naryn South Restoration Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (5) 14 Opportunity Map Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability (6) Naryn East Date: 2021-11-30 Toktogul EPSG: 32243 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: The map is constructed based on the overall land degradation map with non-feasible areas subtracted. Table 2: Restoration opportunity statistics for each sub-basin Naryn Basin Naryn Basin Toktogul Kokomeren Class Kyrgyz Republic Naryn Basin South East Watershed Watershed   ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % 1 2,427,577 12.2 583,697 11.3 242,548 10.3 41,756 4.0 197,949 23.6 101,438 11.1 2 505,130 2.5 212,416 4.1 64,139 2.7 36,437 3.5 33,074 3.9 78,752 8.6 3 909,624 4.6 290,933 5.6 155,431 6.6 17,659 1.7 53,099 6.3 64,737 7.1 4 389,417 2.0 179,998 3.5 56,668 2.4 44,210 4.3 14,652 1.7 64,452 7.0 5 212,256 1.1 11,186 0.2 6,601 0.3 613 0.1 2,006 0.2 1,963 0.2 6 59,910 0.3 29,868 0.6 10,474 0.4 7,032 0.7 1,667 0.2 10,680 1.2 Total 4,503,915 - 1,308,098 - 535,861 - 147,707 - 302,447 - 322,022 - Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Percentage total not equal to 100 due to non-applicable areas in the region. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS 3. Results of restoration assessment 3.1. Identification of suitable select the most feasible and relevant ones. The restoration measures participants were asked to assess the relevance of the proposed measures on a scale of 1 to 3 3.1.1. Methodology across a set of eight criteria presented in a A long list of 33 restoration measures was PESTLE13 framework (Table 3). The criteria related first elaborated based on existing restoration to political aspects were assessed by our team, experiences in government programs and since not all participants were familiar with SDGs development projects in the Kyrgyz Republic as and national and sector-specific strategies. All well as on other experiences available worldwide. other criteria were assessed at the workshop. This long list was discussed at an online workshop In addition, two ‘killer’ criteria were introduced on June 17, 2021, with representatives from the Ministry of Agriculture, the State Forestry Service, to exclude measures that are not realistic or and the Kyrgyz National Agrarian University with not relevant, either at the national level or at the aim to delete the restoration measures which the Naryn River Basin level. The short-listed were not appropriate or feasible in the Kyrgyz measures were further ranked according to their 15 Republic or in the Naryn River Basin, to add total scores, in each land use category (forest, any other relevant restoration measures, and to pasture, agriculture, and protective lands). Table 3: Evaluation criteria for the assessment of the restoration measures Topics Evaluation criteria ി Alignment with SDGs Political (level of alignment with national and sectoral policies and plans) ി Alignment with national and sector policies and strategies ി Direct costs and benefits (for example, investment, revenue flow, profitability) Economic and financial (costs benefit, productivity) ി Indirect costs and benefits (for example, lost and new economic opportunities, increased provision of ecosystem services)13 ി Presence of well-functioning community-based land Social (importance of livelihood, management bodies gender equality) ി Importance for rural livelihoods 13 PESTLE stands for Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal, and Environmental criteria. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 3 Topics Evaluation criteria ി Enabling land use rights to implement the measure Legal and institutional (level of feasibility within existing legal system) ി Feasibility within existing legal and regulatory frameworks ി Ability to reduce vulnerability to environmental Environmental (level of alignment with changes reducing overall vulnerability - people and ecosystems) ി Co-benefits (biodiversity, ecosystem services, and so on) ി Adoption rate by land users and managers Killer criteria - national level ി Technological feasibility (availability of needed technologies, human capacities) ി Adoption rate by land users and managers Killer criteria - Naryn River Basin ി Technological feasibility (availability of needed technologies, human capacities) Source: Original elaboration for this report. 3.1.2. Results 16 From the initial list of 33 restoration measures, of restoration measures is presented in Table 21 were excluded. The main reasons for this 4. The sequence of activities in each land use were the expected low adoption rate and missing category corresponds to the ranking established technologies and human capacities. The final list by national partners during the online workshop. Table 4: Prioritized restoration measures in and outside the Naryn River Basin No. Forest lands Afforestation / reforestation with high-quality seedlings and polybags with protection measure 1 (pistachio, walnut, juniper, and spruce) 2 Reforestation in riparian areas/forests 3 Assisted natural regeneration (pistachio, walnut, juniper, and spruce forests) Agricultural lands 4 Efficient use of water resources 5 No tillage/minimum tillage 6 Introduction of crop rotation and cover crops Agroforestry models combining walnut trees, fruit trees, fast growing trees (hedgerows), native 7 bushes, hay production, and agriculture in State Forest Funds (SFFs) and private lands Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 4 No. Forest lands Pasturelands 8 Temporary grazing ban in degraded areas in all pasture types Access to remote pastures through infrastructure improvement (for example, watering points, 9 bridges, and roads) Rotational grazing and grazing schedule in summer and winter pastures for increasing productivity 10 and improving palatability Protective lands Riverbank protection and gully stabilization through green infrastructure (plantation of adapted 11 grass, bush, and tree species) 12 Riverbank protection and gully stabilization through grey infrastructure (gabions, check dams) Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 3.2. Restoration area prioritization map of restoration opportunities was combined with selected Leskhozes and pasture committees 3.2.1. Methodology (PCs) (Figure 6 and Figure 7). This selection was The data for the different forest types (that is, done based on the following criteria: spruce, junipers, walnut, pistachio, and almond) ി Leskhozes and PCs which have good track were obtained from the 2008 Swiss Development records in past restoration projects and Cooperation (SDC) dataset which was clipped onto the restoration opportunity map (224 × 224 have demonstrated their willingness during 17 m) to get an indication of restoration opportunities field visits were identified as priority areas. for each forest type. To capture sufficient detail, They were further distributed into two classes: given that the available SDC data were composed • Areas where no project-funded of various small polygon features, the degradation restoration activities were implemented map was resampled to a 10 × 10 m resolution. A in the past years were categorized as similar methodology was applied to pastures. ‘initial’. It means any restoration initiative The restoration opportunities map was clipped in these areas must start from zero. with a grassland/pasture sample set from the 2019 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Areas where project-funded restoration (IPCC) Land Use dataset to obtain the pasture activities were successfully restoration opportunities map. This map of implemented in past years were restoration opportunities was used to calculate the categorized as ‘consolidation’. It means investments required to restore degraded lands any new restoration initiative in these (see Table 24). Priority was given to the most areas can easily build on the experience degraded areas (typically to areas classified within and practices already applied in the past. degradation classes 4–6, but also in some cases ി Leskhozes and PCs which will be target only classes 5–6 when class 4 was too large). territories in the upcoming GCF-FAO14 project Further, the restoration opportunity map was were excluded from priority areas, as they overlaid with prioritized areas where the first will receive substantial financial support for investments should be channeled. For this, the restoration activities through this project. Green Climate Fund- Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations. 14 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic ി Leskhozes and PCs which performed poorly This prioritization was done by a team of experts in the implementation of past projects and was confirmed at the validation workshop with (information based on interviews with national partners, who proposed to add one more PC development partners) or which showed a and one Leskhoz which they consider as active and passive attitude during field visits were also capable. Figure 6 and Figure 7 provide an overview excluded from priority areas. of priority Leskhozes and PCs, respectively. Figure 6: Priority Leskhozes for restoration activities 18 FID Leskhoz Status Area_ ha 1 Naryn Consolidation 45955 2 Toktogul Consolidation 139949 3 At Bashy Initial 98671 4 Ak Talaa Consolidation 123036 5 Toguz-Toro Consolidation 99600 6 Jumgal Initial 6068 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Naryn Basin Leskhozes Prioritized Leskhoz Status Opportunities Assessment Ak Talaa Priority Leskhores inside Nary Basin At Bashy Non-priority Leskhores inside Nary Basin Jumgal Leskhozes outside Naryn Basin Naryn Basin Forest Priority Areas (Leskhozes) Toguz-Toro Naryn Basin Naryn Fast for Restoration Toktogul Kokonaren Toklogul Date: 2021-12-13 Unknown Leskhoz FMJ Naryn South EPSG: 32243 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Priority leskhozes are shown with purple outlines and hatched polygons, as indicated in the legend. Some leskhozes are so small that due to the scale of the map, the purple lines seem to be continuous planes. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Figure 7: Priority PCs for restoration activities Layer Status FID Area_ha PC_Nichke-Say Initial 1 83083 PC_Jan-Bulack Initial 2 31333 PC_Emgek_Talaa Initial 26 38484 PC_Ak-Chly Excluded 25 45647 PC_Atai Excluded 24 20158 PC_Jarry-Talap Excluded 22 39755 PC_Kargalyk Excluded 21 89098 PC_Kok-Irim Excluded 19 99558 PC_Togolok-Moldo Excluded 15 76685 PC_Toguz-Toro Excluded 14 115677 PC_Emgekchill Excluded 23 41827 PC_Kazan-Kuigan Excluded 20 12353 PC_Kok-Jar Excluded 18 35569 PC_Kizul-Beles Excluded 17 17944 PC_Kyzyl-Ozgonush Excluded 16 34326 PC Check-Nura Consolidation 12 46874 PC_Akman Consolidation 13 199 PC_Jargylchak Consolidation 10 65150 PC_Jergetal Consolidation 8 94263 Pasture Communities PC_Jergetal Consolidation 9 64040 PC_Ak-Chiy PC_Emgeichill PC_Emgek_Talaa PC_Kok-Jar PC_Ortok PC_Kara-Burgon Consolidation 7 90844 PC_Min-Bulak Consolidation 6 73025 PC_Akman PC_Jan-Bulack PC_Kara-Burgon PC_Kuzul-Beles PC_Togolok-Moldo PC_Ortok Consolidation 5 21964 PC_Atal PC_Jany-Talap PC_Kargalyk PC_Kyzyl-Orgorush PC_Toguz-Toro PC_Cholpon-Ata Consolidation 11 146110 PC_Check: Nura PC_Jargylchak PC_Kazan-Kuigan PC_Min-Bulak PC_Ugut PC Ugut Consolidation 4 54411 PC_ Cholpec-Ata PC_Jergetal PC_Kok-Irim PC_Nichke-Say PC_Ulahol Consolidation 3 12075 Prioritized Pasture Community Status Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Prioritized PC: Consolidation Opportunities Assessment Prioritized PC: Initial 19 V Non-Prioritized PC Basin Pasture Community Priority Naryn Basin Naryn East Naryn South Areas (PC) for Restoration Kokomeren Toktogul Date: 2021-12-13 EPSG: 32243 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 3.2.2. Forest area prioritized for restoration processes, combined with the fragile mountain topography, have caused significant degradation As outlined in the baseline report, forest resources of forest resources over the past decades (GIZ are under high pressure due to excessive 2015; SAEPF 2015). Historically, forest cover was logging in the past and current unsustainable concentrated in the western part of the Kyrgyz use as fuelwood as well as high pressure from Republic. Major parts of these forested areas uncontrolled grazing. The national survey results have been cleared. However, the annual rate of of SAEPF and FAO (2010) show that around 12.5 tree cover loss has decreased over recent years, percent of forests suffer from degradation. This is especially since 2013. This is due to an introduced a higher value than what was found in this study for logging ban (moratorium in 2017) for walnut and Naryn River Basin forests, but it should be noted Juniperus forests and due to efforts of afforestation that both spatial domain and period differ between and reforestation. Deforestation is of minor the two assessments. Degradation processes are importance in the Naryn River Basin according to also affected by climate change with more events WRI (2016)5F15 and our study. Restoration efforts of extreme climate and weather conditions. These https://www.wri.org/data/atlas-forest-and-landscape-restoration-opportunities 15 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic therefore should focus on areas where forests opportunities for spruce and juniper forests and existed in the past and which are degraded instead indicates the priority Leskhozes in the Naryn of investing resources on afforestation under harsh River Basin. Figure 9 shows for two specific climatic conditions in remote areas. regions in the Naryn River Basin the occurrence of restoration opportunity locations in Toguz- The forest areas are subdivided into three forest Toro (left) and outside of the Naryn River Basin types: spruce and juniper forests, almond and (right). Table 5 lists the total area of restoration pistachio forests, and walnut forests. For each opportunities for each of the priority areas for of these forest types, separate restoration the different prioritized Leskhoz regions, with opportunity results are presented and the Naryn Leskhoz having the highest relative extent prioritized Leskhoz areas are highlighted. A full at 0.3 percent. Ak-Talaa and At-Bashy rank overview of the restoration opportunity areas for highest in terms of absolute extent for restoration the different Leskhozes is provided in Annex 3. opportunities (classes 3–6), with over 150 ha of Spruce and Juniperus degraded forests the areas considered to offer opportunities for Figure 8 shows the map of restoration restoration activities. Figure 8: Spruce and Juniperus restoration opportunity map with priority areas in and outside the Naryn River Basin 20 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Spruce/ Junipers Degradation Prioritized Leskhoz Status Opportunities Assessment No Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (1) Priority Leskhores inside Nary Basin No Degradation, Major Vulnerability (2) Non-priority Leskhores inside Nary Basin Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (3) Leskhozes outside Naryn Basin Restoration Opportunity Map Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability (4) Basin for Spruce / Junipers with Priority Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (5) Naryn Basin Naryn Fast Kokonaren Toklogul Areas for Restoration highlighted Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability (6) Date: 2021-12-13 Naryn South EPSG: 32243 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Figure 9: Restoration opportunity map for spruce and juniper degraded areas with priority areas in two focus regions in and outside the Naryn River Basin Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Spruce/ Junipers Degradation Prioritized Leskhoz Status Opportunities Assessment Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (3) Priority Leskhores inside Nary Basin Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability (4) Non-priority Leskhores inside Nary Basin Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (5) Leskhozes outside Naryn Basin Restoration Opportunity Map Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability (6) for Spruce / Junipers with Basin Priority Areas highlighted Naryn Basin Date: 2021-12-13 EPSG: 32243 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 21 Table 5 shows the area of degraded spruce and 3–6 in the four prioritized Leskhozes amount to 420 Juniperus forest types (degradation classes 3–6 ha. Although degradation has been detected in the and non-degraded areas classes 1–2) for each of the Naryn River Basin, the degraded area is small — prioritized Leskhozes. In total, degradation classes below 1 percent per class of the total area. Table 5: Overall spruce and juniper restoration opportunity statistics for each Leskhoz Toktogul At-Bashy Jumgal Class Kyrgyz Republic Naryn Basin Naryn Leskhoz Leskhoz Leskhoz Leskhoz ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % 1 168,916 0.8 23,912 0.5 1,418 1.0 3,104 6.8 4,896 5.0 62 1.0 2 31,718 0.2 6,624 0.1 508 0.4 1,281 2.8 278 0.3 100 1.7 3 11,201 0.1 842 0.0 35 0.0 62 0.1 154 0.2 0 0.0 4 1,752 0.0 385 0.0 9 0.0 28 0.1 4 0.0 0 0.0 5 1,917 0.0 179 0.0 66 0.0 27 0.1 7 0.0 0 0.0 6 273 0.0 80 0.0 21 0.0 6 0.0 1 0.0 0 0.0 Total 215,777 - 32,022 2,057 - 4,508 - 5,340 - 162 - Total classes 3–6 for the four priority leskhozes 420 ha Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Percentage total not equal to 100 due to non-applicable areas in region. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Pistachio / Almond degraded forests the total area of restoration opportunities for the different sub-basins. Toktogul is the only Figure 10 shows the map of restoration sub-basin that contains a few pistachio/almond opportunities for pistachio and almond forests restoration opportunities (0.1 percent). Annex (with degradation classes 3–6 and non- 5 shows the table with restoration opportunity degradation classes 1–2) and indicates the areas for each Leskhoz. However, as stated, none priority Leskhozes. It is noticeable that most of of the Leskhozes in the Naryn River Basin contain the pistachio and almond forests are situated a key area of pistachio/almond forest type. outside of the Naryn River Basin. Table 6 lists Figure 10: Pistachio and almond restoration opportunity map with priority areas outside the Naryn River Basin 22 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Pistachio / Almond Degradation Prioritized Leskhoz Status Opportunities Assessment No Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (1) Priority Leskhores inside Nary Basin No Degradation, Major Vulnerability (2) Non-priority Leskhores inside Nary Basin Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (3) Restoration Opportunity Map Leskhozes outside Naryn Basin Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability (4) for Pistachio / Almond Forest Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (5) with Priority Areas for Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability (6) Date: 2021-11-30 Restoration highlighted EPSG: 32243 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Table 6: Overall pistachio and almond restoration opportunity statistics for each sub-basin Kyrgyz Naryn Naryn Basin Naryn Basin Toktogul Kokomeren Class Republic Basin South East Watershed Watershed   ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % 1 22,333.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 - - - - 0.1 0.0 - - 2 10.3 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 6 Kyrgyz Naryn Naryn Basin Naryn Basin Toktogul Kokomeren Class Republic Basin South East Watershed Watershed 3 4,232.9 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - 4 0.4 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - 5 5,520.2 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - 6 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - Total 32,096.8 - 0.1 - - - - - 0.1 - - - Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Percentage total not equal to 100 due to non-applicable areas in region. There is no area with degradation class 6 for this forest type. Walnut Leskhoz contains some walnut forests (27.5 ha, Figure 11 shows the map of restoration opportunities 0.2 percent relative area) as shown in Table 32 for walnut forests (degradation classes 3–6 and (Annex 5). Table 7 lists the total area of restoration non-degradation classes 1–2) and indicates the opportunities for the different sub-basins, of priority Leskhozes in the Naryn River Basin. It is which Toktogul is the only sub-basin containing noticeable that most of the walnut forests are some opportunities for walnut forest restoration. outside of the Naryn River Basin. Only Toktogul The table per Leskhoz can be found in Annex 3. Figure 11: Walnut restoration opportunity map with priority areas in and outside the Naryn River Basin 23 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Walnut Forest Degradation Prioritized Leskhoz Status Opportunities Assessment No Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (1) Priority Leskhores inside Nary Basin No Degradation, Major Vulnerability (2) Non-priority Leskhores inside Nary Basin Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (3) Restoration Opportunity Map Leskhozes outside Naryn Basin Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability (4) Basin for Walnut Forests with Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (5) Naryn Basin NarynFast Priority Areas for Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability (6) Kokonaren Toklogul Date: 2021-11-30 Restoration highlighted NarynSouth EPSG: 32243 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 7: Overall walnut restoration opportunity statistics for each sub-basin Kyrgyz Naryn Naryn Naryn Basin Toktogul Kokomeren Class Republic Basin Basin South East Watershed Watershed ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % 1 32,700.9 0.2 6.3 0.0 - - - - 6.3 0.0 - - 2 152.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 - - - - 0.1 0.0 - - 3 4,890.7 0.0 0.2 0.0 - - - - 0.2 0.0 - - 4 10.7 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - 5 1,313.2 0.0 0.4 0.0 - - - - 0.4 0.0 - - 6 14.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - Total 39,081.8 - 7 - - - - - 7 - - Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Percentage total is not equal to 100 due to non-applicable areas in the region. 3.2.3. Pasture area prioritized for restoration Figure 12 shows the map of restoration of total area), Check Nura PC (33.1 percent), opportunities for degraded pastures (degradation and Min Bulak PC (23.3 percent) showing high classes 3–6) and indicates the priority PC in the degradation percentage. The latter two also rank 24 Naryn River Basin (see PC in Figure 7). Table 9 highest in terms of absolute degradation area lists the total area of restoration opportunities for restoration opportunities, with more than in degraded pastures for each of the prioritized 15,000 ha. A full overview, including a list of non- PCs, with Ulahol PC (41.1 percent degradation prioritized PCs, is provided in Annex 4. Figure 12: Pasture restoration opportunity map with priority areas Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Opportunities Assessment Restoration Opportunity Map for Pasture with Priority Areas for Restoration highlighted Pasture Degradation Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (3) Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability (4) Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (5) Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability (6) Basin Naryn Basin Naryn Fast Kokonaren Toklogul Naryn South Pasture Communities: Status Prioritized PC: Consolidation Prioritized PC: Initial Non-Prioritized PC Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Date: 2021-12-13 EPSG: 32243 Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 8: Overall pasture restoration opportunity statistics for each sub-basin Naryn Basin Naryn Basin Toktogul Kokomeren Class Kyrgyz Republic Naryn Basin South East Watershed Watershed ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % 1 2,069,391 10.4 534,235. 10.4 224,770 9.5 34,727 3.4 182,534 21.8 92,196 10.1 2 464,012 2.3 201,222 3.9 58,731 2.5 33,929 3.3 30,722 3.7 77,825 8.5 3 897,818 4.5 290,569 5.6 155,256 6.6 17,637 1.7 52,981 6.3 64,687 7.1 4 389,282 2.0 179,937 3.5 56,611 2.4 44,206 4.3 14,652.5 1.7 64,452 7.0 5 204,414 1.0 10,227 0.2 6,220 0.3 591.4 0.1 1,474.9 0.2 1,938 0.2 6 58,827 0.3 29,589 0.6 10,406.0 0.4 7,003.8 0.7 1,499.8 0.2 10,666 1.2 Total 4,083,744 - 1,245,779 - 511,994 - 138,094 - 283,864 - 311,764 - Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Percentage total is not equal to 100 due to non-applicable areas in the region. Table 9: Pasture restoration opportunity statistics (classes 3–6) for each prioritized PC Pasture Committee Priority status ha % 25 Nichke Say PC Initial 9,993 10.8 Jan Bulack PC Initial 3,972 4.3 Emgek Talaa PC Initial 6,070 6.5 Check Nura PC Consolidation 15,483 16.7 Akman PC Consolidation - - Jargylchak PC Consolidation 53 0.1 Jergetal Ak-Talaa PC Consolidation 4,581 4.9 Jergetal Naryn PC Consolidation 12,255 13.2 Kara Burgon PC Consolidation 1,660 1.8 Min Bulak PC Consolidation 16,989 18.3 Ortok PC Consolidation 2,490 2.7 Cholpon Ata PC Consolidation 12,918 13.9 Ugut PC Consolidation 1,396 1.5 Ulahol PC Consolidation 4,955 5.3 Total 92,815 100 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Consolidation and initial relate to the classification done in Section 3.1.1. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic A visualization of the spatial patterns of restoration opportunities and degradation / vulnerability classes for the most affected priority PC is shown in Figure 13. Figure 13: Pasture restoration opportunities with priority areas in two Naryn River Basin regions 26 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Pasture Degradation Pasture Communities: Status Opportunities Assessment Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (3) Prioritized PC: Consolidation Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability (4) Prioritized PC: Initial Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (5) Non-Prioritized PC Restoration Opportunity Map Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability (6) for Pasture with Priority Areas Basin for Restoration highlighted Naryn Basin Date: 2021-12-13 EPSG: 32243 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 3.2.4. Agriculture area prioritized for areas with significantly lower SOC than other restoration agricultural areas. This analysis is presented As explained in the baseline report and Annex in Figure 14 where orange to red indicate areas 6, the methodology applied for degradation where SOC is low. This phenomenon particularly mapping has limitations in agricultural cropland occurs in the Ferghana Valley and to the east of areas. Crop rotation schedules affect the extent Issyk Kul Lake. Also shown in the map are the to which trends and dynamics of vegetation erosion points contained by the CollectEarth indexes (NDVI) can be attributed to degradation. Assessment performed by FAO. The colors of However, the spatial data of SOC, obtained from the dots indicate whether erosion features were the SoilGrids v2.0 database,6F16 can be analyzed observed in the landscape (on high-resolution to determine spatial patterns and identify imagery). Areas where erosive features overlie 16 https://soilgrids.org/ Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS cropland (particularly in the northwest of the of restoration activities in agricultural areas. It country) could be potential targets for cropland should also be noted that agriculture in the Naryn restoration efforts. However, both the assessment River Basin spans a small area (14,217 ha or less of SOC data and CollectEarth results should be than 1 percent of the total Naryn River Basin) considered as preliminary. Field investigation is and is therefore of minor importance for the required to take the next steps toward planning sedimentation of the Toktogul water dam. Figure 14: Agricultural cropland areas: Deviation in SOC with an erosion indication, CollectEarth dataset 27 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Pasture Degradation CollectEarth Erosion Data Basin Opportunities Assessment -75.0 No Prosion Landslide Naryn Basin -37.5 Pasture Erosion Other Erosion Kyrgyzstan Districts Agriculture: Deviation in Soil Organic 0.0 Gullies Carbon from Agroclimatic Class 37.5 Mean for Cropland Areas + 75.0 Date: 2021-11-30 Erosion Indication from CollectEarth EPSG: 32243 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 3.3. Cost-benefit analysis of 16. The CBA followed the standard approach with restoration measures four main steps (Figure 15). First, the current situation (business as usual or BAU) and related 3.3.1. Methodology land use practices were assessed. Then, for each A CBA was conducted for each proposed restoration measure a CBA was implemented restoration intervention. The suggested to calculate the net present values (NPVs) and restoration measures were presented in the internal rates of return (IRRs). At the last step, a baseline report, discussed with stakeholders in sensitivity analysis was conducted using changes two workshops, and are summarized in Figure in discount rate and cost increase. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Figure 15: Steps to conduct a CBA Assess the Calculation Sensitivity Assess costs & of feasibility indicators: Analysis the BAU benefits of Net Present Value (NPV), (discount scenario proposed Internal Rate rate, cost) activities of Return (IRR) Source: Original elaboration for this publication based on Robinson, Hammitt, and O’Keeffe (2019). The restoration measures were divided into not considered. Because inflation would apply to four land type groups (Figure 16). Fourteen per both costs and revenues at the same rate, it is not hectare models were developed. Each model necessary to consider the effects of inflation. If used data from field trips, interviews with experts, nominal prices were used, a nominal discount rate national government agencies, previous UNIQUE would also be used, which would cancel out any projects, and other locally implemented projects. inflationary impact. The sensitivity analysis was In addition, the CBA analysis was presented and conducted using several increase values in costs updated after the feedback from participants at compared to revenues (see below). the validation workshop in December 2021. Both The carbon sequestration estimates were derived terms of afforestation and reforestation were used. from EX-Ante Carbon Balance Tool (EX-ACT) Depending on the situation, either could be applied. models for agriculture and forestry-related The last group on protective land measures includes 28 measures and from a previous study implemented riverbank protection and gully stabilization through by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale green infrastructure (plantation of adapted grass, Zusammenarbeit (German Agency for International bush, and tree species) and grey infrastructure Cooperation, GIZ) on pasture-related measures (gabions, concrete, rocks, and so on). For these (this study has a higher level of accuracy than measures, the CBA was not included and no EX-ACT). A price of US$5 per sequestered ton specific areas for restoration were identified, (tCO2e/ha/year) of carbon was used. Although the since these would require site-specific visits and current market prices for nature-based solutions assessments. The same applies for croplands: a carbon credits are above US$5, this price has been CBA analysis was done but due to the limitations of chosen as a conservative estimate on achievable identifying degraded croplands through the applied carbon benefits for restoration options. A price of methodology, no specific cropland restoration US$40 per ton of carbon was used for the GCF areas were identified (see previous Section 3.2.4). Project in the Kyrgyz Republic (CS FOR project). The period for the CBA is 20 years using the This resulted in an IRR of 71.3 percent and NPV current discount rate of 8 percent as given by of US$353,7 million for a 20-year period for the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic. This improved rangeland, which is remarkably high. represents the safest market rate in the Kyrgyz The World Bank Guidance Note on shadow price economy as it is guaranteed by the reserve bank. of carbon in an economic analysis of 2017 also In line with standard practice for CBA, this rate suggests a price of US$40 per tCO2 as the social was adopted for the calculation of NPV. Alternative value of carbon. According to the study’s nature, discount rates were also used for the sensitivity the assessment of carbon benefits of restoration analysis (see below). In the cashflow models, is higher than typical carbon credit certification. real prices (as opposed to nominal prices) were This higher estimate leaves room for uncertainty. used for the analysis, meaning that inflation was It is a good practice to encounter this uncertainty Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS by estimating conservatively. A conservative price there is a less noticeable impact. estimate forms part of a conservative estimate The analysis did not include an assessment of of overall carbon benefits. A sensitivity analysis financing required to fund these cashflows. This for changing carbon prices from US$5 to US$50 analysis would require an estimate of the equity per ton of carbon was conducted (Table 26). The carbon price significantly affects the economic and debt proportion of the loans, as well as data on performance of the afforestation and assisted the market rate of interest available to smallholders regeneration restoration measures. For restoration (often much higher than the official rate offered by measures such as agricultural lands and pasture, commercial banks). Figure 16: CBA models, per hectare CBA models 1. Forest lands 2. Agricultural lands 3. Pastures 4. Protective land measures 1. 1. Reforestation 2.1. Improving 4.1. Green water use efficiency 3.1. Grazing ban approach of riparian forests with poplar trees 2.2. No tillage 4.2. Grey 1.2. Afforestation approach 1.2.1. Walnut forest, 3.2. Remote 29 1.2.2. Pistachio forest, pasture access 1.2.3. Spruce forest 2.3. Crop rotation 1.3. Assisted regeneration 1.3.1. Walnut forest, 3.3. Rotational 1.3.2. Pistachio forest, 2.4. Agroforestry grazing 1.3.3. Spruce forest Source: Original elaboration for this publication. The analysis was undertaken using economic and Economics of Land Degradation (ELD) Initiative production data available in the Kyrgyz Republic were used. According to the ELD study in the as well as data collected by two members of our Kyrgyz Republic, the value of ecosystem services team during a field trip in 2021. The report used was US$6.8 per ha (Sabyrbekov and Abdiev 2016), previous studies and models completed in the which was used for all restoration models. Table country, and whenever possible, studies that 27 gives an overview of ecosystem services. ELD took place in the target area. Ecosystem services Central Asia Regional Report, based on the Kyrgyz — benefits that are received from nature and Republic, lists ecosystem services for three pilot do not have direct market prices — are a key sites, including water, fodder, tourism, mushroom, component of this calculation. Since the country timber, fuelwood, nuts, NTFPs, and recreation. currently does not have official national ecosystem services assessment, the most reliable projects In the CBA, ecosystem benefits from wood, fodder, (for example, GCF-FAO) and studies done by the nuts, and carbon were calculated and a value of CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic US$6.8 per ha was included in the afforestation, production) and cannot be disaggregated, double reforestation, assisted regeneration, and pasture counting was allowed in this study since the ELD cashflow models. Thus, these ecosystem services value also includes other benefits not accounted have been double counted in the cashflow models, for in our CBA. Also, the value is low (see also CS where carbon revenues or ecosystem services FOR project calculation in the GCF proposal). Table benefits are already included. However, because 10 presents an example of a benefit analysis for an the value of US$6.8 includes all the services agroforestry model with walnut trees. (such as tourism, recreation, fodder, and wood Table 10: Walnut afforestation model benefits, 20-year period Benefits Sum in 20 years, in US$ per ha Walnut revenues 52,199 Benefits from ecosystem services 136 Carbon sequestration 1,830 Hay revenues 7,104 Total benefits 61,269 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 30 The sensitivity analysis was done in two mentioned earlier. ways. First, changes in the discount rate were The forestry models included the following: modelled, from 5 percent to 14 percent. Second, the sensitivity of the results to cost changes was ി Afforestation models (walnut forest, pistachio tested via total cost increases of 10 percent and forest, and spruce forest) 20 percent. This analysis was applied because ി Reforestation or afforestation of riparian current prices fluctuate significantly and can have forests with poplar an impact on investment and rate of return. ി Assisted regeneration (walnut forest, pistachio For each of the CBA models, a detailed list of forest, and spruce forest). assumptions of costs / inputs and benefits were made. Model assumptions The common activities of the forestry models 3.3.2. Forestry models were fencing, seedling plantation, haymaking The developed models relied on a CBA of within the fenced areas, use of NTFPs (walnuts Agroforestry Models in Southern Kyrgyz Republic and pistachio), and watering through irrigation. in 2020 as well as models in the GCF proposal The costs included seedlings for afforestation, CS FOR - ‘Carbon Sequestration through Climate the labor cost of planting, loosening of the soil Investments in Forests and Pastures Project’, 2018. after planting, irrigation materials, fencing and Basic cost and yield expectations (per ha) were related labor costs. In addition, each forest type ascertained from primary data sources or by using model has specific assumptions. An example of a value transfer approach through the sources walnut forest afforestation is provided in Table 11. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 11: Walnut afforestation model costs, Year 1, US$/ha Cost Value (US$) Unit Timing Seedlings 472 US$/ha Year 0 Planting labor 708 US$/ha Year 0 Maintenance labor: Three-fold loosening of the soil Years 91 US$/ha on the plots and weeding around the seedlings 5, 10, 15 Fence installation 613 US$/ha Year 0 Fence maintenance 12 US$/ha/year Years 1 – 20 Land lease 9.1 US$/ha/year Years 1 – 20 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. An example of benefit assumptions for the material; and labor and harvesting costs for walnut forest is given in Table 12. More detailed walnuts and hay were calculated. Land lease information about models is available in Annexes 8 costs were included in the forest models (US$9.1/ and 9. In the example of walnut afforestation, costs ha/year). Fertilizer was not included in the forest for plants; labor costs for planting, protecting, models since it is not a widespread practice. It was and maintenance; costs for fencing / protection included in the agriculture models. 31 Table 12: Walnut afforestation model assumptions Benefit assumptions Unit Value Number of trees tree/ha 278 Harvesting start year 7 Yield at Years 7–9 kg/tree 5 Yield at Years 10–12 kg/tree 10 Yield at Year 13 and onwards kg/tree 15 Ratio of marketable walnuts % 50 Carbon sequestration at Years 1–20 tCO2e/ha/year 18.3 Hay Yield starts decreasing from Year 8 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Results for forestry models Table 13 depicts the results of the forestry models. feasibility indicators were in walnut forest models The results showed that the positive NPV ranged that is primarily driven by high market prices for from US$632 to US$13,680 and the IRR was from walnuts. On the other hand, the spruce forest has a 11 percent to 31 percent. The highest economic negative NPV and IRR due to the long ripening periods. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 13: Forest model CBA No. Activity - model NPV (US$) IRR (%) 1 Afforestation/Reforestation - walnut forest 13,680 31 2 Afforestation/Reforestation - pistachio 632 11 3 Afforestation/Reforestation - spruce forest -1,821 −9 4 Afforestation/Reforestation - riparian forest 3,174 16 5 Assisted regeneration - walnut forest 10,054 31 6 Assisted regeneration - pistachio forest -2,207 −4 7 Assisted regeneration - spruce forest -2,959 Cannot be determined Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Sensitivity analysis for forestry models models are typical to the study area and include potato, alfalfa, and barley. The productivity rates The results were not significantly affected by for each crop are based on the latest data from the changes in discount rates (see Table 42, Annex National Statistics Committee. Where data were 9). The only exception was the afforestation unavailable, data from other studies were used. pistachio forest model — at a 14 percent discount For modelling purposes, it was assumed that 1 ha rate, the NPV became negative. is equally divided between three crops. Cost increases have a high to moderate impact on 32 Model assumptions NPV and IRR. The highest sensitivity was registered for spruce forest model (see Table 43 in Annex 9). The agricultural land models included investment in irrigation improvement, high-quality seeds, use 3.3.3. Agricultural land models of no tillage seeder (usage costs), transportation, Agricultural land models have four submodels and fencing. All costs and benefits are market based on the proposed restoration interventions: prices, except non-market benefits such as carbon water use efficiency improvement, no tillage, and ecosystem services. An example of input costs crop rotation, and agroforestry. The crops in the calculated for the model is presented in Table 14. Table 14: Water use efficiency improvement model inputs, Year 1, US$/ha Costs US$/ha Irrigation (materials, installation, labor) 1,946 Maintenance labor cost 106 Maintenance materials 118 Transport 35 Seeds 590 Fertilizers 72 Total costs 2,867 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS The productivity gains from the improved irrigation is still scarce. A budget should be allocated for scenario are based on completed studies (such this within a technical assistance fund. This was as a GIZ study on potato production in the Naryn foreseen as a cost item (see Section 3.5). area). So, the average potato yield increase is 32 percent, the average alfalfa yield increase is 20 Results percent, and the average barley yield increase is 10 percent. The no tillage/minimum tillage Table 15 shows the results of this assessment. model has cost implications for capacity building Among these models, the highest NPV was for farmers because this agricultural practice found in the water use efficiency model, equal to is new to the Kyrgyz Republic and knowledge US$4,324. Table 15: Agricultural land model CBA Activity - model IRR (%) NPV (US$) Agricultural lands - Watering improvement 49 4,324 Agricultural lands - No tillage 23 3,447 Agricultural lands - Crop rotation 2 2,398 Agricultural lands - Agroforestry 21 1,600 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 33 Sensitivity analysis for agriculture models model includes the use of smart land management practices and investments to improve pasture The changes in discount rates decreased the NPV productivity and reduce degradation. to 2,430 in the first model — the magnitude of change was highest in the water use efficiency model (see Table 42 in Annex 9.). Model assumptions The cost increases affected through varying The model assumes a temporary grazing ban. decreases of NPV and IRR. The highest sensitivity This implies moving the animals to other areas was registered for the agroforestry model (see and additional forage costs during the grazing ban Annex 9). period. The costs include fencing, transportation, investments in road and bridge construction or 3.3.4. Pasture models improvement, and additional forage. It is assumed that with fencing, a wide area can be temporarily The pasture models were developed on per excluded from grazing. An example of model hectare assumptions and livestock unit (LU) inputs for one of the pasture models can be found costs and benefits (1 LU = five sheep). There are in Table 16. The cost of pasture access right was three submodels: grazing ban, improved access included in the grazing cost calculation. to remote pastures, and pasture rotation. The CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 16: Grazing ban pasture model, Year 1, US$/ha Cost Value (US$/ha) Unit Timing Additional fodder per LU 9.4 US$/ha/year Years 1 – 20 Increased shepherd’s fee per LU 14.2 US$/ha Years 5, 10, 15 Fencing materials per ha 613.0 US$/ha Year 0 Fencing labor maintenance 60.0 US$/ha Years 1–20 Total cost 696.6 Year 1 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. The implementation of the investment activities results in increased yields of meat and milk. Additionally, ecosystem services and carbon sequestration were included. Table 17 shows an example of benefits incurred. Table 17: Grazing ban pasture model annual benefits Name Value (US$) 34 Benefit from meat US$ per LU 84 Benefit from milk US$ per LU 47 Number of LU per ha 1 Sub-total benefit from meat per ha 84 Sub-total benefit from milk per ha 47 Ecosystem services per ha 6.8 Carbon sequestration per ha 1.25 Total benefits 139.1 (Year 1) Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Results Table 18 shows the CBA results of three pasture models. The highest NPV is found for the remote pasture access model, at US$1,268 and 19 percent of IRR. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 18: Pasture model CBA Activity - model IRR (%) NPV (US$) Pasture - Grazing ban 16 923 Pasture - Remote pasture access 19 1,268 Pasture - Rotational measures 19 1,256 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Sensitivity analysis for pasture models included installation of industrial goods-based protective infrastructure with gabions. The NPV of pasture models is overly sensitive to changes in the discount rate. Change of discount rate from 8 percent to 11 percent caused changes Model assumptions of NPV in the range of 129 to 1,705 (grazing ban) The model’s main assumption is that the main and 327 to 2,157 (rotational pasture). This is benefit is protection of riverbanks from erosion. detailed in Table 42 in Annex 9. The cost of a typical dwelling is calculated at KGS In terms of sensitivity to cost increases, the remote 6,360,000 or US$75,000. Below is an example of the riverbank protection model with green pasture access model had the highest sensitivity. infrastructure (planted crops to reduce erosion). The details are shown in Table 43 in Annex 9. The model assumes that without the protective 35 measures, a dwelling will be destroyed completely 3.3.5. Protective land model every year. Therefore, the annual benefit equals the The protective land model was developed to cost of the dwelling (US$75,000 per ha). The other assess the benefits of land protective measures. assumption is that 1 ha has 100 m of riverside that The model included two approaches. First, the must be protected. Hence, the costs are calculated green approach implied use of green infrastructure on a 100 m basis per ha. No benefits were assumed as a primary vehicle. However, the grey approach for carbon sequestration in this model. Table 19: Cost of green infrastructure for riverbank protection, US$ Cost Value (US$) Unit Timing Cost of hedge brush layer on top of gabions 4,718 US$/100 m Year 0 Materials (trees, soil) 1,769 US$/100 m Year 0 Labor to install green gabions 495 US$/100 m Year 0 Annual maintenance materials cost 236 US$/100 m/year Years 1–20 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Results The results showed that both models had high positive NPV (see Table 20). CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 20: Protected Lands CBA Activity - model IRR (%) NPV (US$) Protective lands - Green Not applicable 727,581 Protective lands - Grey Not applicable 726,255 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Sensitivity analysis 3.3.7. Investment level economic results The two models in this category are insignificantly The overall NPV of the investment was calculated sensitive both to changes in discount rate and cost by extrapolating individual hectare models change - see Annex 9 (Table 48 and Table 49). across the intended landscape and summing costs and revenues to get a net revenue figure 3.3.6. Total cost of restoration at the landscape level for both the baseline and the investment case. The incremental income (or By applying the per hectare model of all restoration the net difference between the ‘with investment’ measures to the areas identified as suitable for and ‘without investment’ scenario) was projected restoration, the total up-front costs for restoring over a 20-year time horizon and a discount rate priority areas amount to over US$45 million. It of 8 percent was used to determine an NPV of is assumed that users of forest, agriculture, and US$93.33 million. The discounted benefit-cost pasture lands and respective governmental partners 36 ratio (BCR) of the investment is 2.4, that is, US$2.4 will be able to co-finance the proposed investment. is generated from the investment of US$1. The This kind of co-investment mechanism has been return on investment, or total net revenue divided piloted through various projects on afforestation by total cost, was calculated at 138 percent. and agroforestry in the country and has proven to be successful. It is also recommended that about These results include the value of carbon 10 percent of the total investment is topped in the sequestration but do not reflect other investment budget for capacity building (US$1 nonmonetary benefits which would contribute to million), investment management (US$800,000), improved livelihoods through environmental and and technical assistance (US$500,000) (all are socioeconomic benefits such as employment, rough figures). It means the total investment costs access to wood and non-wood forest products, from third-party organization(s) would sum up to and increase of income, among others. The results US$25.13 million (see Table 25 and Section 3.5). are presented in Table 21. Table 21: Investment-level economic results Economic indicator Unit Value NPV (8%) US$ 93,332,284.10 BCR (discounted) Ratio 2.4 Return on investment % 138 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS 3.3.8. Carbon sequestration estimations and investment outline have been made. All models carbon costs assume the following parameters. In the above models, carbon sequestration was The modelling period is 20 years, which is a calculated, as presented below. A conservative common period for land-based carbon accounting. price of US$5 per sequestered ton was calculated The resulting GHG emission balance (in tCO2e/ha/ in the CBA models. A sensitivity analysis with year) is the average annual change rate of this alternative carbon prices — the average price on modelling period. So, changes in carbon stocks the voluntary carbon market and the social carbon are assumed to happen in a linear manner. price — was also prepared (Table 22). Zero-baseline assumption: For all models it is assumed that in the baseline scenario, degradation GHG assessment methodology levels and management continue as before. Neither improvements nor further degradation is assumed For this assessment, the BAU and intervention over time. scenarios appropriate to the local context were defined. Using the EX-ACT (version 9.2) Permanence of the modelled intervention is developed by the FAO, the carbon impacts of assumed beyond the modelled period. For example, restoration options in the Kyrgyz Republic are a restored forest is assumed to stay at a defined quantified. EX-ACT is a land-based carbon level of degradation (see below) even beyond the accounting system, which estimates the carbon modelled period. This means the model does not balance (C stock changes, that is, emissions or account for any degradation that would appear sinks of CO2) as well as GHG emissions per unit after 20 years. of land, expressed in equivalent tons of CO2 per Zero leakage is assumed for the modelled ha per year. The scope of the estimate included interventions. 37 all five carbon pools (above-ground biomass, The applicable climate for most models is assumed below-ground biomass, deadwood, litter, and to be cool temperate dry. Only two models for SOC) and estimated coefficients of CH4, N2O, higher altitude forests use boreal dry climate. and selected other CO2 emissions based on IPCC default factors (Tier 1). For prioritized restoration ROAM projects future options for restoration options, the GHG assessment estimates the potential without knowing the specific sites effects of these measures on GHG emissions. The where the measures will be implemented. restoration options are molded into 1 ha scenarios Therefore, further assumptions in all models were encompassing certain assumptions documented made about the average conditions at the future in the baseline report. The per hectare models restoration sites. can then be upscaled to assess the technical GHG All interventions happen on high activity clay reduction potential of the different interventions. (HAC) soils. According to the Harmonized World The EX-ACT Excel tables are provided in a Soil Database, all dominant soil types in the Kyrgyz separate file. Republic fall in this category. Dominant soil types in the study regions are Calcisols, Kastanozem, GHG estimation of restoration options and Leptosols, all of which classify as HAC. All interventions are modelled over standardized 1 No fire occurrence is considered in all scenarios. ha models (except for option ‘Efficient use of water Fires do occur in the Kyrgyz Republic. However, it resources’, see description below), which can then is assumed that most interventions do not change be extrapolated to the applicable extent in each the current fire regime. Thus, the modelling of scenario (‘upscaling’). To model GHG emissions baseline and investment scenarios omit the aspect for different interventions, assumptions on the of fires.  CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic The Kyrgyz Republic lies in a mountainous region. ി Stock change factors from IPCC (2019) for Land use therefore happens on high altitudes severely and moderately degraded grassland (above 800 m). As per IPCC definition 2006 (Ch. 4 are applied to the reference carbon stocks to ‘Forest land’), altitudes in cool temperate regions estimate SOC stocks before intervention. above 800 m translate into the ecological zone ി The only management measure considered is of mountain systems, which is assumed for all grazing management (for example, timing and forestry models (1–5). intensity of grazing). For the three agriculture models (6–8), some ി The stock change factors entered in the with- assumptions on the prevalent cropland cultivation intervention scenario assume that after 20 in the Kyrgyz Republic were made: Full tillage years of improved management, severely of the soil is frequent practice on most fields. and moderately degraded pasture soils could Medium C input is assumed. This is to reflect the return to the reference (non-degraded) state. fact that most residues from crops are left on fields No consideration is given for use of auxiliary and consumed by livestock (therefore exported) measures such as reseeding or fertilization. but also receive organic inputs from livestock droppings. Irrigation in agriculture is not common ി For the green and grey infrastructure in the Kyrgyz Republic; thus, irrigation systems investments (riverine restoration), the carbon need to be installed by applying some restoration sequestration potential was not calculated. options. When irrigation is used, it is mostly flood Table 22 gives an overview of the carbon or furrow irrigation practices. Fertilizer use is 138 sequestration potential. Further model-specific kg/ha on average but will only be affected in the assumptions are described in Annex 11. Moreover, ‘no tillage’ model. the tables also indicate the estimated GHG 38 For the pasture models, a methodology presented emission balance of the modelled interventions.  and used during the NDC update in 2021 was The numbers on emission balance differ from adopted. The values were validated and accepted the GCF estimations (CS FOR project) on carbon by the national stakeholders and therefore those sequestration for different tree species in both were applied.17 The main assumptions are as afforestation/reforestation and assisted natural follows: regeneration/enrichment planting (Table 22). The ി The baseline carbon stock is estimated using a difference of the values is first explained by the reference SOC stock that is the weighted average fact that the GCF is not counting SOC. By looking of different climate zones. It was assumed all only at the values for biomass carbon (that is, soils are HAC in the IPCC definition, and that without SOC) from EX-ACT models, it is possible alpine, mid-mountain, and foothill grassland to conclude that the values are approximated. The types correspond to boreal, temperate, and GCF values are more conservative. tropical climate zones, respectively. 17 Analysis of livestock and pasture sectors for the NDC revision in Kyrgyzstan, June 2021. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 22: Restoration measures and their GHG emissions balance, tCO2e/ha/year Emission Only biomass GCF Scenario balance (No SOC) value18 Measure 1: Afforestation/Reforestation with pistachio, walnut, −18.3 −13.4 −4.519 almond Measure 2: Afforestation/Reforestation with spruce and juniper −9.2 −2 −3.520 Measure 3: Afforestation/Reforestation in riparian forests −18.6 −13.7 −5.821 Measure 4: Assisted natural regeneration in pistachio, walnut, and −5.7 - −1.222 almond forests Measure 5: Assisted natural regeneration in spruce and juniper −1.1 - −123 forests Measure 6: Agriculture - Efficient use of water resources −0.7 - - Measure 7: Agriculture - No tillage/Minimum tillage −0.3 - - Measure 8: Agriculture - Introduction of crop rotation and cover −0.1 - - crops Measure 9: Agroforestry walnut/fruit 1.2 −1 - Measure 10: Agroforestry poplar −0.2 −2.4 - Measure 11: Pasture grazing ban −1.2 - - 39 Measure 12: Remote pasture access −1.2 - - Measure 13: Pasture rotation measures −1.2 - −1.25 Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 18 For reasons of comparison, values of GCF have been calculated as the average over 20 years. 19 Values for afforestation with pistachio and walnut combined. 20 Values for afforestation with spruce and juniper combined. 21 Value for afforestation with poplar. 22 Value for enrichment planting with walnut. 23 Values for enrichment planting with spruce and juniper combined. 3.4. Readiness assessment inception report and is summarized in Annex 12. As a second step, semi-structured interviews 3.4.1. Methodology were conducted with key stakeholders in the target sectors. At the national level, respondents As a first step, the availability of enabling from the Ministry of Agriculture (Pasture sector strategies and bottlenecks in the forest, and Livestock Department, Plant Production biodiversity and conservation, agriculture, pasture Department, and Forest Policy Department) and and livestock, water, and energy sectors were from the Forestry Service were interviewed. At analyzed. A detailed review of existing national and the district level, interviews were conducted sector policies and strategies was included in the with the District Department of Agricultural CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Development in Naryn and Toktogul districts. possible to meet them during the mission. The At the local level, interviews took place with full list of respondents is available in Annex 1. representatives from Leskhozes, PCs, and several Six key dimensions were addressed during the land users living in and around the selected field interviews. Each of them was given a weight (very sites. Representatives from nongovernmental high, high, and medium high), in relation to the organizations and international organizations importance of the dimension to fulfill the Astana were also contacted by email as it was not pledge. Table 23: Key dimensions for FLR readiness Dimension Importance Political leadership Very high Policy and legal framework High Financing instruments Very high Technical feasibility High Knowledge and skills High Socio-cultural aspects Medium high Source: Original elaboration for this publication. 40 The interviews with national-level stakeholders from the Ministry of Agriculture were not available focused on all six dimensions. At the provincial for a meeting and did not answer the subsequent and local level, only dimensions 4, 5, and 6 were formal request sent by the study team. The main considered, as the focus of these meetings results therefore focus on forest and pasture- was on practical considerations of restoration related stakeholders and are presented in the implementation. next section. Given the limited size of the sampling group (19 3.4.2. Findings on readiness assessment respondents), the interviews were analyzed only qualitatively. Little information could be gathered Findings are summarized in Table 24. More details about the agricultural sector as representatives can be accessed in Annex 12. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 24: Readiness assessment key findings Dimension Key enabling factors Bottlenecks  Experts who prepared the pledge are still in  Limited lobbying from State Forest Service (SFS) decision-making positions about FLR and the Bonn Challenge within the Political government leadership  New government structure pooled forest, pasture, and agriculture sectors under a  Limited coordination of SFS with national-level single ministry government bodies  Poor integration of sector strategies  There is no clear policy for coordinating international processes involving several governmental organizations such as FLR.  Forest, pasture, and agriculture land Policy  Enabling policy framework in all sectors to management, respectively, managed by and legal upscale FLR governmental, nongovernmental, and private framework stakeholders, making hierarchy unclear and coordination complicated  At the local level, there are legal constraints connected to budget disbursement for restoration measures on land owned by a different stockholder  Increasing private investments in restoration of forest and agriculture lands  Enough budget flexibility exists at the local  Limited financial resources available for level to direct investments to forest and investment in forest (US$1 million annually from pasture restoration the government budget) and pasture (PC budget - no national-level figure) restoration 41 Financing  Several past and ongoing projects made large instruments investments in forest and pasture restoration,  Government budget allocation procedures thereby generating best and inefficient prevent timely disbursement for restoration practices activities  Successful examples of resource pooling between local stakeholders to upscale restoration measures  Successful examples of local agreements  Low-cost restoration measures lead to limited between governmental and nongovernmental improvements and require annual investments stakeholders demonstrate a sustainable  Government procurement procedures make it Technical implementation of restoration measures difficult to select the most qualified contractor feasibility  Several past and ongoing projects improved  The technical capacities of local land managers the equipment and technical means of forest are limited which is an important constraint to and pasture management bodies the implementation of restoration measures  Missing knowledge about the FLR concept at all levels  Knowledge about pasture degradation and restoration is available among local managers  Outdated technical knowledge in the forest sector Knowledge and improvement through trainings provided and no established structure for continuous and skills by various projects capacity building  High turnover of land managers at the local level preventing efficient knowledge management Cultural  Local stakeholders search for local  If not properly mitigated, conflicts over grazing compromises with other land users and in forest areas can be a serious limitation to aspects managers successful restoration Source: Interview with national partners. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic 3.5. Finance and investment options services were included. It is assumed that forestry, agriculture, and pastureland users would be able to co-finance the investment. Land users are The costs for restoration given in Table 25 are increasingly interested in investing in restoration based on statistics for the Naryn River Basin and activities. This trend concerns agricultural land but for the whole country. Areas within and outside less so forest land, which is managed by the state, the Naryn River Basin with high degradation were and lease holders of these lands are interested identified. These are degradation classes 4–6. In in fast-growing plantations. This kind of co- some cases, only degradation classes 5–6 were investment mechanism has been piloted through used where class 4 was too large; thus, restoration various projects on afforestation and agroforestry would be too costly (see ‘Target area description’ in southern Kyrgyz Republic and has proven to column in Table 25). As a result, restoration be successful. The co-investment was done investments are recommended on 8,909 ha of through labor, local material, fencing material, forest areas, 39,818 ha of pastureland, and 1,300 irrigation equipment, seeds, and seedlings. The ha of croplands, amounting to a total of 50,027 funds available for land restoration from the state ha. For the forest measures, a percentage of budget would need to be increased to implement afforestation and regeneration was considered as the proposed restoration interventions. For indicated in the column ‘Target area description’. example, according to the available information, It is suggested that about 10 percent of the total the Kyrgyz Republic allocates over KGS 90 million costs be allocated for investment management, (US$1 million) annually for all reforestation and capacity building, and technical assistance. The afforestation activities in the entire country.24 total investment would sum up to US$45.3 million. It Small and medium enterprises supported by the is also suggested to include 10 percent of potential 42 technical assistance can have access to the credit investment for capacity building, consultancies, lines of the Russian-Kyrgyz Development Fund and investment management (see section 3.3.6). (RKDF). The loans will be provided at 5 percent Average costs and revenues relate to a 20-year per year in dollars and at 10 percent in local period. Results are shown in the same table. currency, for a term of about 3–5 years, to existing Up-front investment costs (Year 1) of restoration enterprises representing eligible value chains. shall be covered and financed. Although some of Co-investment can therefore be provided through the measures do have an interesting economic loans by the interested persons. Doscredobank return, it should be noted that market prices (not is currently seeking GCF accreditation. This bank on-farm prices) were used and that economic could also be an option for credit in future. benefits from carbon sequestration and ecosystem 24 http://en.kabar.kg/news/kyrgyzstan-to-allocate-kgs-97.4-mln-this-year-for-forest-protection/. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 25: Suggested investments per restoration measure in and outside the Naryn Basin per hectare, US$ Cost Total cost Average Financial Target area Nonmonetary Carbon (international (international cost per revenue Total description benefit (avg/ (using cooperation cooperation NPV IRR ha (avg/ (avg/ha cost ha (NB - Naryn basin. ha over 20 US$5 organizations organizations (8%) (%) ha over 20 over 20 Year 1 ON - outside years) price) or develop- or develop- years) years) Naryn basin) ment banks) ment banks) Restoration measure: Forest - Afforestation - Walnut 100% of degradation 184 2,965.13 6.80 91.50 1,813 907 937 classes 4-6 (20% 849,169 13,680 31 afforestation. 50% regeneration) Restoration measure: Forest - Afforestation - Pistachio 50% of class 5 ON 184 279.59 6.80 91.50 1,813 907 1,932 70% afforestation. 1,751,650 633 11 30% regeneration Restoration measure: Forest – Reforestation - Riparian Forest 841 858.79 6.80 93.00 1,568 784 200 200 ha in NB 156,840 3.174 16 Restoration measure: Forest - Assisted Regeneration - Walnut 100% of degradation 98 1,826.96 6.80 28.50 994 497 1,070 classes 4-6 (20% 531,842 10,054 31 43 afforestation. 50% regeneration) Restoration measure: Agricultural lands - Watering improvement 1,075 3,111.89 - 3.50 2,867 1.433 100 NB 143,349 4,324 49 Restoration measure: Agricultural lands - No tillage 1,165 3,187.57 - 1.50 4,563 2,281 100 NB 228,137 3,447 23 Restoration measure: Agricultural lands - Crop rotation 342 1,740.71 - 0.50 342 171 1,000 NB 170,991 2,398 2 Restoration measure: Agricultural lands - Agroforestry 1,053 1,963.23 - - 3,383 1,692 100 NB and ON 169,156 1,600 20 Restoration measure: Pasture - Grazing ban 40% of total 138 435.65 6.80 6.00 696 348 15,927 NB degradation 5,540,684 923 16 classes 5-6 Restoration measure: Pasture - Remote pasture access 50% of total 130 467.30 6.80 6.00 728 364 19,909 NB degradation 7,248,671 1,268 19 classes 5-6 Restoration measure: Pasture - Rotational measures 10% of total NB 118 456.24 6.80 6.00 682 341 3,982 degradation 1,358,172 1,256 19 classes 5-6 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 25 Cost Total cost Average Financial Target area Nonmonetary Carbon (international (international cost per revenue Total description benefit (avg/ (using cooperation cooperation NPV IRR ha (avg/ (avg/ha cost ha (NB - Naryn basin. ha over 20 US$5 organizations organizations (8%) (%) ha over 20 over 20 Year 1 ON - outside years) price) or develop- or develop- years) years) Naryn basin) ment banks) ment banks) Restoration measure: Riverine protection green 20×100 585 75,000.00 7,217 7,217 2 km NB 144,340 727,581 n.a. m Restoration measure: Riverine protection grey 20×100 601 75,000.00 9,782 9,782 2 km NB 195,642 726,255 n.a. m Restoration measure: Forest - Afforestation - Spruce 100% in NB and 100% of classes 175 1.98 6.80 46.00 1,804 902 3,548 4-6 ON 90% 3,200,551 -1,821 −9 afforestation and 10% regeneration Restoration measure: Forest - Assisted regeneration – Pistachio 50% of class 5 ON 70% 256 150.22 6.80 28.50 1,904 952 828 788,328 -2,207 −4 afforestation. 44 30% regeneration Restoration measure: Forest - Assisted regeneration - Spruce 100% in NB and 100% of classes 247 1.98 6.80 5.50 1,895 948 394 4-6 ON 90% 373,528 -2,959 n.a. afforestation and 10% regeneration Total cost first year - - - - - - - - 45,362,115 - - Total third-party investment - - - - - - - - 22,511,067 - - International cooperation organizations or development banks investment - - - - - - - - 22,851,048 - - 10% for capacity building. consultancies. investment management - - - - - - - - 2,285,105 - - Total international cooperation organizations or development banks investment - - - - - - - - 25,136,153 - - Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 26 shows the impact of changing carbon zero or a net positive impact on carbon emissions. prices on the NPV and IRR of the different Although not all measures have a positive NPV, it restoration options. NPV is calculated using a is still recommended to apply these measures for discount rate of 8 percent. The carbon price has other benefits such as ecosystems, biodiversity, a significant impact on the economic performance water harvesting, landscape, tourism, reduced of the afforestation and assisted regeneration erosion, and improved livelihood in remote areas restoration measures as these are the measures (although the contribution from pistachio, for with the highest carbon impacts. For restoration example, may be low). The implementation of these measures such as agricultural lands and pasture, measures will also help the Kyrgyz Republic meet there is a less noticeable impact. Green and grey NDC and Bonn Challenge targets and therefore riverine protection and walnut agroforestry are needs investment and commitment not included in the table because they have either Table 26: Carbon price sensitivity of restoration options Carbon price US$5/tCO2 US$5/tCO2 US$20/tCO2 US$20/tCO2 US$50/tCO2 US$50/tCO2 NPV (8%) NPV (8%) NPV (8%) Restoration Measure IRR (%) IRR (%) IRR (%) (US$/ha) (US$/ha) (US$/ha) Forest - Afforestation 13,679.82 28 16,374.90 36 21,765.07 67 -Walnut Forest - Afforestation - 632.84 11 3,327.92 27 8,718.08 96 45 Pistachio Forest - Afforestation - 1,821.25 −9 466.35 5 2,243.46 25 Spruce Forest -Reforestation- 3,174.30 16 5,913.56 31 11,392.09 136 Riparian forest Forest - Assisted 10,054 31 10,893.05 34 12,571.95 45 regeneration - Walnut Forest - Assisted 2,206.67 −4 1,367.22 1 311.69 10 regeneration - Pistachio Forest -Assisted 2,959.01 n.a. 2,797.01 n.a. 2,473.01 n.a. regeneration - Spruce Agricultural lands - 4,323.87 49 4,426.96 50 4,633.14 53 Watering improvement Agricultural lands - No 3,447.08 23 3,491.26 24 3,579.62 24 tillage Agricultural lands - Crop 2,397.57 2 2,412.30 2 2,441.75 2 rotation Pasture - Grazing ban 922.93 16 1,099.66 18 1,453.11 22 Pasture - Remote 1,267.97 19 1,444.70 21 1,798.15 26 pasture access Pasture - Rotational 1,255.95 19 1,432.68 20 1,786.13 25 measures Source: Original elaboration for this publication. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic The Climate Finance Center was established by regularly track information about climate finance a government resolution on August 17, 2017, to support in the biodiversity and forestry sectors: support the mobilization and access to climate ി SFS (forestry and biodiversity national public finance for investments in key economic sectors. and external finance) It is the central unit coordinating the Kyrgyz Republic’s efforts in accessing climate funds and ി Ministry of Finance (Official Development channeling them into transformative investments Assistance [ODA] flows as a part of the public supporting national development priorities. Its budget and the entire public budget) duties also include securing finance related to ി Ministry of Economy and Commerce (ODA mitigation and adaptation activities. To what extent technical aid and grants provided directly) the Climate Finance Center is fully operational is not known to the authors at this stage. ി National Statistics Committee (foreign direct investment - FDI) GCF is a key financing option which has approved a new project (CS FOR) due to start soon, as ി National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (Foreign mentioned before. investments). Another financing option is through a payment for The new organization of SFS was yet to be fully ecosystem services (PES) mechanism, which is known during the study. Therefore, the financing analyzed in the following section. flow may change. One important aspect would be to coordinate investments from third-party organization(s). 3.6. Social and environmental There are often parallel initiatives and benefits investments, which can be more proactively 46 coordinated by the Kyrgyz Republic. A multi- stakeholder coordination body is recommended While benefits from carbon sequestration and to supervise the implementation of investments. environmental services were included in the monetary CBA, additional important social and environmental services cannot be accounted for Tracking climate finance in a direct monetary way. The additional benefits There are five key public organizations which are therefore described in Table 27. Table 27: Restoration measures and their ecosystem and social services Restoration measures Benefits from ecosystem and social services Forest lands ി Water flow regulation ി Biodiversity increase ി Soil stabilization, avoided erosion Afforestation/reforestation with high-quality ി Carbon sequestration seedlings and polybags with protection ി Non-wood benefits (nuts) and firewood measure (pistachio, walnut, juniper, and ി Landscape aesthetic, tourism spruce) ി Regulation of atmospheric temperature and humidity ി NTFPs ി Employment and seasonal employment Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 27 Restoration measures Benefits from ecosystem and social services ി Water flow regulation ി Biodiversity increase ി Soil stabilization, avoided erosion ി Carbon sequestration Reforestation in riparian areas/forests ി Wood production (construction and firewood) ി Landscape aesthetic, tourism ി NTFPs ി Employment and seasonal employment ി Water flow regulation ി Biodiversity increase ി Soil stabilization, avoided erosion Assisted natural regeneration (pistachio, ി Wood and non-wood benefits walnut, juniper, and spruce forests) ി Carbon sequestration ി Landscape aesthetic, tourism ി NTFPs ി Employment and seasonal employment Agricultural lands  ി Soil conservation, water harvesting Efficient use of water resources ി Carbon sequestration ി Reduced use of fertilizer and pesticides ി Soil conservation, water harvesting ി Carbon sequestration thanks to increased biomass in the soil No tillage/minimum tillage ി Avoided watercourse siltation ി Reduced use of fertilizer and pesticides 47 ി Soil conservation, water harvesting ി Carbon sequestration Introduction of crop rotation and cover crops ി Avoided watercourse siltation ി Reduced use of fertilizer and pesticides ി Biodiversity increase Agroforestry models combining walnut trees, ി Soil conservation fruit trees, fast growing trees (hedgerows), ി Wood and non-wood products native bushes, hay production, and ി Carbon sequestration in trees and soil agriculture in SFFs and private lands ി Landscape aesthetic ി Employment and seasonal employment Pasturelands  ി Soil conservation, avoided soil erosion ി Increased biomass and biodiversity Temporary grazing ban in degraded areas in ി Carbon sequestration thanks to increased biomass in the soil all pasture types ി Landscape aesthetic ി Avoided watercourse siltation ി Soil conservation, avoided soil erosion Access to remote pastures through ി Carbon sequestration thanks to increased biomass in the soil infrastructure improvement (for example, ി Avoided watercourse siltation watering points, bridges, roads) ി Seasonal employment ി Soil conservation, avoided soil erosion Rotational grazing, grazing schedule in ി Carbon sequestration thanks to increased biomass in the soil summer and winter pastures for increasing ി Landscape aesthetic productivity and improving palatability ി Avoided watercourse siltation CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 27 Restoration measures Benefits from ecosystem and social services Protective lands ി Carbon sequestration in the vegetation Riverbank protection and gully stabilization ി Avoided watercourse siltation through green infrastructure (plantation of ി Avoided damages adapted grass, bush, and tree species) ി Seasonal employment Riverbank protection and gully stabilization ി Avoided watercourse siltation through grey infrastructure (gabions, check ി Avoided damages dams) ി Seasonal employment Source: Original elaboration for this publication. Note: Ecosystem services have been double counted in the cashflow models, where carbon revenues or ecosystem services benefits are already included. However, because the value of US$6.8 includes all the services (such as tourism, recreation, fodder, and wood production) and cannot be disaggregated, double counting was allowed in this study since the ELD value also includes other benefits not accounted for in our CBA. Also, the value is low (see also CS FOR project calculation in the GCF proposal). Potential impacts on employment are difficult widely used in the biodiversity conservation to estimate. Figures given by the International priorities of the Kyrgyz Republic until 2024 (2014) Bank for Reconstruction and Development 2017 as well as in the 5th and 6th National Reports (PROFOR, Climate Focus, and World Bank Group to the Convention on Biodiversity (2013, 2019). 2017) indicate 0.070 full-time equivalent (FTE) However, the 6th report to the CBD underlines that employees per ha for productive forest, 0.003 ‘ecosystem services’ is not yet officially defined in for reduced impact logging (Peru), and 0.050 for any regulatory document. Recently, definitions of rotation extension (Vietnam). Restoration measures ecosystem services and PES have been included in 48 would positively affect seasonal employment for a modified version of the Forest Code. However, it tree planting and regeneration and permanent is not yet approved by the government. employment for the tree nursery and within the Ecosystem services principles, that is, the SAF employment structure. The range could be benefits Kyrgyz citizens get from sustainably between 0.003 and 0.050 FTE per ha. managed resources, are also underlined in other strategic documents, but without making explicit 3.7. Payment for ecosystem use of the term ‘ecosystem services’: services (PES) ി The Development Program of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2018–2022, ‘UNITY, TRUST, 3.7.1. National strategies and regulations CREATION’, paves the way to a full-fledged implementation of the principles elaborated The concept of ecosystem services has been in the Green Economy Program. This includes steadily introduced in several policies and strategic aspects related to ecosystem services—as it documents of the Kyrgyz Republic since 2013. underlines the necessity to “take into account Several documents make direct reference to the the principles of green growth for the revision terminology ‘ecosystem services’, for example, the of the economy’s structure and the transition Green Economy Program of the Kyrgyz Republic to development with minimal impact on the 2019–2023 (2018), where the ‘development of natural environment.” a methodology for the economic valuation of ecosystem services’ is planned for 2022 (a draft ി The Concept of Forest Sector Development was prepared by a national working group but 2040 aims at the sustainable management of is not approved yet - 6th report to Convention forests to ensure the economic well-being of on Biological Diversity [CBD] 2019). It was also people, social prosperity, environmental safety, Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS and a favorable environment for the life of which herders from Suusamyr valley would receive citizens of the Kyrgyz Republic. It acknowledges a payment from the Toktogul HPP for avoided land the importance of ecosystem services provided degradation and the consecutive transport of by forest ecosystems to underpin the three sediments to Toktogul Reservoir via the Kokomeren main pillars of sustainable development. It lists River. The river being a marginal contributor to the provisioning and regulating ecosystem services reservoir’s total inflow, and erosion processes not (without calling them as such), such as clean being widespread in Suusamyr valley, no correlation and stable water provision, avoided natural was found between unsustainable pasture hazards, clean air, and NTFPs. management and sedimentation in the reservoir. The term ‘PES’ is mentioned in only one national Additionally, Toktogul HPP management indicated strategy: The biodiversity conservation priorities its lack of concern with sedimentation which is a of the Kyrgyz Republic until 2024, which indicates marginal phenomenon compared to the reservoir that such mechanisms are not developed yet in the capacity and occurs several dozen kilometers away country but are necessary to engage vulnerable from the dam. No financial resources are allocated rural communities in a more rational and profitable to removing sediments, as this would generate no management of natural resources. As mentioned benefit for power production in the long term. It above, a definition of PES is also given in draft means that one of the basic conditions for setting modifications to the Forest Code. up a PES mechanism, that is, a clear demand for the ecosystem service from a buyer (Fripp 2014), 3.7.2. PES pilots is missing. The structure of a PES mechanism was drafted (Figure 17), but never brought forward due Several projects piloted PES-like schemes at to these preliminary conclusions. the watershed level, for example the Regional Environmental Center for Central Asia in 2014 In this study, it was also possible to confirm 49 and 2017. Considering the lack of finance that degraded land is not a major contributor available among ecosystem services beneficiaries, for siltation of Toktogul Reservoir over the next transaction costs associated with a transparent decades (see baseline report). There are therefore payment mechanism, and legal and financial doubts on whether land restoration measures barriers, these projects followed a pragmatic have the potential to significantly decrease the approach, which did not entail any financial negligeable issue of water sedimentation. It means transaction. Instead, local agreements were sought that a second key condition for a PES mechanism after, in which ecosystem services beneficiaries is also missing—additionality (Fripp 2014)—that provided an in-kind reward to providers in the form is, restoration interventions have the potential to of a labor contribution for land restoration (for increase the supply of an ecosystem service (here example, reforestation). Research conducted on avoided sedimentation). A PES system would not these pilot projects (Kolinjivadi et al. 2016; Saraswat contribute to avoiding siltation of the reservoir. et al. 2015) underlined that intense community The same UNDP study and another report from mobilization, local negotiations between land users, the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia and flexibility in designing a reward mechanism (CAREC 2014) also point out several limitations that is accessible to ecosystem services buyers in the legislation and public finance management and interesting for ecosystem services sellers were system of the Kyrgyz Republic, which need to be key factors for the success of these PES schemes. addressed before large-scale, transparent, fair, A relevant study by UNDP (2012) explored the 25 and verifiable PES mechanisms can be established possibility to set up a PES mechanism in the frame of in the country. 25 United Nations Development Programme. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Figure 17: PES structure in the Kyrgyz Republic National PES Supervising Organization Technical Financial supervision Financial supervision Technical and suppart reporting reporting Provincial PES supervising organization - Conflict resolution Management - Extension or amendment of PES agreements PES Provincial Fund Payment Payment Technical collection redistribution supervision Technical reporting and support Technical supervision PES Scheme Coordination 50 Reward Flow Committee ES ES Beneficiaries Providers ES Flow PES Scheme Source: UNDP 2012. Interviews with national experts and former ി Several projects piloting PES initiatives ended managers at SFS underlined that in the last years and since 2017, there are no on-the-ground discussions at the national level on natural capital PES activities. The World Bank Waves initiative accounting and PES have lost momentum. This is the only remaining process working on can be attributed to the following: natural capital accounting in the country. ി The management of key government Consequently, the various legal, institutional, and partners such as the former State Agency financial shortcomings identified by the projects for Environmental Protection and Forestry listed above have not been addressed and remain (SAEPF) has changed several times in the today. past years, leading to knowledge being lost along the way. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS 4.Results from Capacity Building Capacity building of stakeholders was done Another dimension of capacity building was the through three technical workshops. One workshop field work itself, where degradation and restoration focused on restoration measures, where measures options were discussed with land users and were prioritized by the participants themselves. land managers in the field. As indicated in the ‘readiness assessment’ section, there are a lot of A second small technical workshop took place good experiences in the country, but no systematic with SFS staff during the team visit to the country, approach for implementing and financing the where preliminary results of the degradation were FLR pledge. The technical capacities of local discussed and validated. land managers are limited, which is an important A third workshop took place in December 2021, constraint to the implementation of restoration where preliminary results of the whole study were measures. A strong technical assistance presented and validated by the participants. In this component in the foreseen restoration program is workshop, the suggested prioritized Leskhozes therefore suggested. and PCs for restoration implementation were confirmed and adjusted. 51 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic 5. Conclusion and Recommendations 5.1. Readiness preparedness Policy and legal framework Lead agency: Ministry of Agriculture Several enabling factors and bottlenecks to ി Review national sector strategies to identify upscale FLR in the Kyrgyz Republic were presented key topics requiring strong coordination in Table 24. Based on those, it is recommended to and cooperation between sectors. Develop follow up on the following key actions for each of specific actions to ensure these cross-cutting the six dimensions of readiness. For each topic, a topics are addressed jointly by the respective lead agency(ies) has been identified and actions ministries. Time horizon: short term. have been categorized by time priority, with a time horizon of 20 years. Financing instruments Stakeholder engagement was limited during the Lead agencies: Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry assignment due to major institutional reforms of Finance and changes in government members throughout ി Review government budget allocation the assignment. Thus, an overarching additional 52 procedures and develop practical recommendation is to start any upcoming recommendations for timely disbursement investment in FLR in the country from a mobilization and effective spending of funds for restoration phase of key stakeholders, including the Ministry activities. Time horizon: midterm. of Agriculture, and a validation of the information outlined in this report. ി Explore opportunities for repurposing public expenditures and assessing how efficient spending of public resources currently is. It Political leadership has the potential to allocate resources to more Lead agency: SFS (under the Ministry of sustainable and efficient programs, such as Agriculture) potential restoration activities. Time horizon: long term. Key actions ി Streamline investments of development ി Support SFS to initiate an awareness partners to the priority restoration measures raising campaign within the government to identified during the ROAM analysis. Time communicate on the objectives of landscape horizon: midterm to long term. restoration, inform on the country’s pledge, and highlight the opportunities offered by the Bonn Challenge and associated initiatives to Technical feasibility leverage funding. Time horizon: short term. Lead agency: Ministry of Agriculture ി Support SFS lobby for FLR to be a topic ി Improve the technical capacities of land of discussion in existing inter-ministerial managers through upgrading key equipment working groups. Time horizon: short term to and material. Time horizon: short term to midterm. midterm. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS ി Develop and share effective and affordable Time horizon: midterm to long term. restoration measures with land managers and ി In the agriculture sector, the main need lies users. Time horizon: mid erm to long term. in improving the knowledge of the young generation on soil conservation practices, such Knowledge and skills as effective fertilizer application, cover crops, mulching, crop rotation, and agroforestry. This Lead agencies: Ministry of Agriculture, SFS is the role of the District Department of Rural ി Resume the development of a permanent Development, which should be supported training center for the forest sector. This with capacity building, training material, and center should offer onboarding training for improvement of its equipment. Time horizon: inexperienced staff (technical, administrative, midterm to long term. and management) and regular courses on innovative approaches and procedures Sociocultural aspects for continuous improvement of workers’ capacities. FLR courses should be provided Lead agency: Ministry of Agriculture for technical and management staff to ി Usage conflicts between forest management create awareness about the concept and its units and pasture users must be addressed applications. Time horizon: short term to through intense mediation before planning midterm. forest restoration measures. It is recommended ി Support the initiative of the Pasture to develop standard procedures for information Department to hold online training for District sharing and public consultations which must Departments of Rural Development through be used when restoration measures may improvement of technical material and generate a conflict situation. Time horizon: 53 equipment upgrading. Time horizon: short short term. term to midterm. ി Awareness raising of the general population ി Substantial capacity development material on land restoration and FLR is necessary to was developed by nongovernmental decrease the social pressure put on land organizations and in the frame of International managers concerning the implementation of Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), unpopular — though necessary — measures, World Bank, and GIZ projects, on topics such such as forest cuttings to promote forest as development of pasture management regeneration. Time horizon: short to long plans and pasture improvement measures. term. These courses have often been designed It is considered important to incorporate these to be held offline and their digitization as recommendations within a future FLR support online courses would help disseminate program by assigning budgets for capacity them to a larger audience. There is also no building, awareness raising, training measures, common repository where this information and knowledge management, in addition to the can be made available online for pasture necessary technical investments. users and other interested stakeholders. Such a platform, hosted by the Ministry of Agriculture, would help keep this knowledge. 5.2. Financing of restoration It would also offer the possibility to the government and projects to develop specific Financing restoration through a PES mechanism online and offline capacity-building programs has proven to have limited possibilities in the based on this existing knowledge database. Kyrgyz Republic for political and legal reasons but CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic also for the weak links between sedimentation and also has its limitations. The indexes selected for issues for hydropower production. the analysis did not make it possible to identify degradation trends in agricultural lands precisely. The CBA of restoration options shows that part of The 250 × 250 m grid used for the assessment them cannot be expected to generate monetary gives a good overview of the situation on the benefits, at least not with the assumption of a ground but needs to be finer to produce precise carbon price of US$5 per ton. In these conditions, maps of the sites to be restored. private investments can only be expected to be leveraged for the measures with the highest Further studies are recommended to confirm the expected monetary return. Other measures must potential correlation between land degradation, be financed through public funding, for example, sedimentation, and storage loss for other from the state budget; grants and credits from reservoirs in the Naryn River Basin, considering international cooperation organizations and the impacts of climate change. It is also development banks; and private financing through recommended to assess the potential contribution local banks or specific funds, such as the RKDF. of the proposed restoration measures to the mitigation and reduction of natural hazard risks. The total investment for restoring degraded areas is US$45.3 million, to implement landscape The proposed restoration measures could restoration interventions across 50,027 ha contribute to disaster alleviation and natural hazard risk reduction, although this was not (including 39,818 ha of pastures, 8,909 ha of directly assessed. Improved soil structure and forests, and 1,300 ha of cropland). It is suggested vegetation cover, in combination with other that 10 percent of the total costs be allocated disaster alleviation activities, can improve ground for investment management, capacity building, stabilization, thereby increasing the basin’s consulting services, and technical assistance. 54 resilience to mudflows, landslides, rockfalls, The overall NPV of such a restoration investment and slumping. Landscape restoration can also is US$ 93.33 million, over a 20-year time horizon help reduce flooding hazards and increase and a discount rate of 8 percent. The discounted watershed drought tolerance and water retention. BCR of the investment is 2.4, that is, US$ 2.4 is These benefits were not estimated, and further generated from the investment of US$ 1. The return investigations are required to assess the full on investment was calculated at 138 percent. potential in natural hazards reduction. Some of the proposed financing options, particularly those connected with carbon finance, require 5.3. Limitations and additional institutional and legal preconditions which need research to be further researched and clarified. If a restoration program is initiated in the Kyrgyz Due to government reforms and changes within Republic, further local planning will be necessary the SFS, it has been challenging to have direct to match the maps of areas that are potentially interactions with government partners throughout suitable for restoration with local biophysical the study. As a result, it is acknowledged that realities, current land use, and conflicts between interaction was limited to several workshops the objectives pursued by restoration and those and capacity-building efforts within small expert of local land users. In this sense, community groups. involvement in detailed restoration planning at the Remote sensing was intensively used in this local level will be instrumental in the sustainability analysis to identify suitable areas for restoration. of the interventions. In addition, the precise Although this has advantages, particularly because localities for riverine protection would need a more large areas can be covered at a limited cost, it in-depth study to assess where investment would Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS make sense to protect infrastructure and housing. the proposed interventions in natural hazards reduction. Additional research would be required on several topics which were not addressed in this study: ി Spatiotemporal modelling tools are needed for a quantitative assessment of baseline ി Additional studies will be needed to identify, conditions and scenario analyses of different together with local stakeholders, the exact locations of restoration measures. land management and climate change projections. Field measurements of erosion ി Further studies are recommended to confirm and suspended sediment concentrations the potential correlation between land are required for calibration and validation of degradation, sedimentation, and storage such models. The existing knowledge base loss for other reservoirs in the Naryn River of erosion and sedimentation in the Kyrgyz Basin, considering the implications of climate Republic across different terrains and land use change. In-depth studies, integrating climate types is limited and a wide range of values has modelling approaches with field observations, been documented in the studies that do exist. will require new bathymetric surveys and revision of the dead storage capacity of ി The applied methodology was not able to existing and proposed reservoirs in the Naryn identify degraded agriculture cropland. It River Basin. This information would allow to is also not of major importance in the Naryn identify the reservoirs at higher risk of siltation River Basin (less than 1 percent of the total in the short and medium term along the Naryn Naryn Basin) related to degradation and River and to prioritize landscape restoration erosion. Further efforts will be required to measures, targeting the reservoirs that are identify farmers willing to apply the suggested more prone to future siltation. restoration measures. 55 ി Fine sediments can reduce the turbine lifespan ി The issuance of carbon credits is not yet and climate change will impact on sediment regulated in the Kyrgyz Republic, although transport within the reservoir. Further studies there are ongoing efforts to establish a are required to quantify or estimate this impact supportive legislative framework. Further for Toktogul HPP specifically. studies are needed to explore realistic options for leveraging voluntary carbon market ി Improved soil structure and vegetation cover, financing and to assess their time horizon. in combination with other disaster alleviation activities, can improve ground stabilization, ി Effectively managed silvopasture can increase thereby increasing the basin’s resilience to overall productivity and long-term income mudflows, landslides, rockfalls, and slumping. through the simultaneous production of Landscape restoration can also help reduce tree crops, forage, and livestock. It can also flooding hazards and increase watershed provide environmental benefits such as drought tolerance and water retention. These carbon sequestration. The use of silvopasture benefits, which will become more significant agricultural practices in highly degraded areas as the impacts of climate change escalate, in the Kyrgyz Republic should be investigated were not estimated. 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Yu. 2017. “The Influence of Climatic Changes on the Runoff Dynamics of the Naryn River.” Results of Modern Scientific Research and Development: Collection of Articles of the International Scientific and Practical Conference. ICNS Science and Education, Penza. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Kaptagaeva, A., K. Matraimov, R. Sabyrbekov, and V. Surappaeva. 2020. Assessment of Ecosystem Services in Kyrgyzstan. Bishkek: FAO and CAREC. Kenzhebaev, R., M. Barandun, M. Kronenberg, Y. Chen, R. Usubaliev, and M. Hoelzle. 2017. “Mass Balance Observations and Reconstruction for Batysh Cook Glacier, Tien Shan, from 2004-2016.” Cold Regions Science and Technology 135: 78–89. Kolinjivadi, V., Charré, S., Adamowski, J., Kosoy, N. 2016. Economic Experiments for Collective Action in the Kyrgyz Republic: Lessons for Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES). Ecological Economics. 156. 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.06.029 Konovalov, V. G. 1985. Melting and Runoff from Glaciers in the River Basins of Central Asia L. [in Russian]. Gidrometeoizdat. Korintenberg, M., A. Gotgelf, E. Baibagyshov, R. Judis, U. Kasymov, J. Walter, S. Lange, P. Neetzow, K. Eisenack, and J. Zeitz. 2021. “Method for Organic Carbon Stock Assessment and Improvement of Land Degradation Neutrality and Climate Change Reporting on Agricultural Ecosystems in Kyrgyz Republic.” KR Govt. 2016. “Third National Communication of the Kyrgyz Republic under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.” Bishkek. KR Govt. 2019. “Sixth National Convention on Biological Diversity of the Kyrgyz 60 Republic under the UN Environment.” Kronenberg, M., M. Barandun, M. Hoelzle, M. Huss, D. Farinotti, E. Azisov, R. Usubaliev, A. Gafurov, D. Petrakov, and A. Kaab. 2016. “Mass-Balance Reconstruction for Glacier No. 354, Tien Shan, from 2003 to 2014.” Annals of Glaciology 57 (71): 92–102. Kulikov, M., U. Schickhoff, and P. Borchardt. 2016. “Spatial and Seasonal Dynamics of Soil Loss Ratio in Mountain Rangelands of South-Western Kyrgyzstan.” J. Mt. Sci. 13: 316–329. Kulikov, M., U. Schickhoff, A. Gröngröft, and P. Borchardt. 2020. “Modelling Soil Erodibility in Mountain Rangelands of Southern Kyrgyzstan.” Pedosphere 30 (4): 443–456. Kutuzov, S., and M. Shahgedanova. 2009. “Glacier Retreat and Climatic Variability in the Eastern Terskey Alatoo, Inner Tien Shan between the Middle of the 19th Century and Beginning of the 21st Century.” Global and Planetary Change 69: 59–70. Kuzmichenok, V. A. 2010. “Changes in Climatic Characteristics and the Height of the Firm Line of Kyrgyzstan in the Second Half of the 20th Century / Study of the Formation Factors and Assessment of the Impact of Reservoirs in the Lower-Naryn Cascade of Hydroelectric Power Stations on the Quality of Water Resources of the Naryn River Basin using Isotope Methods (based on the results of the ISTC project KR-1430, 2007-2010).” ISTC, Bishkek. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Kyrgyzhydromet. 2015. Annual Bulletin of the Current State and Climate Change in Kyrgyzstan for 2014 [in Russian]. Bishkek. Lamb, D. 2011. Regreening the Bare Hills; Tropical Forest Restoration in the Asia Pacific Region. Dordrecht, Heidelberg, London, and New York: Springer. Main Directorate of Geodesy and Cartography USSR. 1987. “Atlas of the Kyrgyz SSR: T. 1. Natural Conditions and Resources.” [in Russian.] Mamatkanov, D.M., L. V. Bazhanova, and V. V. Romanovsky. 2006. Water Resources of Kyrgyzstan at the Present Stage [in Russian]. Bishkek: Ilim. Martin-Ortega, P. 2019. “LULUCF Assessment with Collect Earth Kyrgyzstan Mapathon 2019.” Moldobekov, B. D. 2016. “Study of Climate Change Trends in Kyrgyzstan.” [in Russian.] Bulletin of the IUK 1 (29): 38–46. Moldobekov, B. D., Sh. E. Usupaev, A. V. Zubovich, A. N. Mandychev, R. A. Usubaliev, L. Joldybaeva, Z. A. Kalmetieva, A.Shabunin, Y. Podrezova, and O. Kalashnikova. 2016. Remote and Ground Earth Exploration in Central Asia. Bishkek: Publishing house City Print. Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Kyrgyz Republic under the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic. 2018. “Monitoring, Forecasting of Hazardous Processes and Phenomena on the Territory of the Kyrgyz Republic Bishkek.” [in Russian.] 61 Nkonya, E., A. Mirzabaev, and J. von Braun. 2015. Economics of Land Degradation and Improvement - A Global Assessment for Sustainable Development. Springer Pavlova, I. A., and Z. A. Kretova. 2014. “Modern Changes in Temperature and Precipitation in the Suusamyr Valley.” Proceedings of the International Conference ‘Remote and Ground Research of the Earth in Central Asia’. CAIAG, Bishkek. Pepin N., R. S. Bradley, H. F. Diaz, M. Baraer, E. B. Caceres, N. Forsythe, H. Fowler, G. Greenwood, M. Z. Hashmi, X. D. Liu, J. R. Miller, L. Ning, A. Ohmura, E. Palazzi, I. Rangwala, W. Schöner, I. Severskiy, M. Shahgedanova, M. B. Wang, and S. N. Williamson. 2015. “Elevation-Dependent Warming in Mountain Regions of the World.” Nature Climate Change 5: 424–430. Petrakov, Dmitry, Alyona Shpuntova, Alexandr Aleinikov, Andreas Kӓӓb, Stanislav Kutuzov, Ivan Lavrentiev, Markus Stoffel, Olga Tutubalina, and Ryskul Usubaliev. 2016. “Accelerted Glacier Shrinkage in the Ak-Shyirak Massif, Inner Tien Shan, during 2003-2013.” Science of the Total Environment 562: 364–378. Podrezov O. A., A. N. Dikikh, and K. B. Bakirov. 2001. “Variability of Climatic Conditions and Glaciation of the Tien Shan Over the Past 100 Years.” [in Russian.] Vestnik of Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University 1 (3): 33–40. Podrezov, O. A., and A. O. Podrezov. 2013. “The Structure of the Current Climate Warming of the Issyk-Kul Depression.” [In Russian.] Geographic Bulletin 3 (26): 78–87. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Podrezov, O. A., and A. O. Podrezov. 2015a. “Modern Change in Precipitation in the Territory of Northern and North-Western Kyrgyzstan.” [in Russian.] Geographical Bulletin 4 (35): 26–33. Podrezov, O. A., and A. O. Podrezov. 2015b. “Modern Warming of the Climate in Northern and North-Western Kyrgyzstan.” [in Russian.] Geographic Bulletin 3 (34): 55–66. Ponamarenko, P. N. 1976. Atmospheric Precipitation in Kyrgyzstan [in Russian]. Gidrometeoizdat. PROFOR, Climate Focus, and World Bank Group. 2017. “Harnessing the Potential of Production Forests and Timber Supply Chains for Climate Change Mitigation and green Growth.” Opportunities for Private Sector Engagement. Robinson, L., J. Hammitt, and L. O’Keeffe. 2019. Valuing Mortality Risk Reductions in Global Benefit-Cost Analysis. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, 10(S1), 15-50. doi:10.1017/bca.2018.26 Ryazantseva, Z. A. 1965. Climate of the Kyrgyz SSR [in Russian]. Frunze: Ilim. SAEPF (State Agency for Environmental Protection and Forestry). 2013. Fifth National Report on Conservation of Biological Diversity of the Kyrgyz Republic. SAEPF. 2015. “Climate Change Adaptation Programme and Action Plan for 2015- 62 2017 for the Forest and Biodiversity Sector.” SAEPF, and FAO. 2010. “Integrated Assessment of Natural Resources 2008-2010.” SAEPF, UNEO, and GEF. 2016. “Third National Communication of the Kyrgyz Republic to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.” [in Russian.] Saraswat, C., P. Kumar, D. Kem, R. Avtar, A. Ramanathan. 2015. Payment of Ecosystem Service to Alleviate Poverty from Kyrgyz Republic in Central Asia Considering Climate Change and Extreme Weather Condition. Journal of Climate Change. 1. 119-128. 10.3233/JCC-150010. Sayer, J., T. Sunderland, J. Ghazoul, J. L. Pfund, D. Sheil, E. Meijaard, M. Venter, A. Klintuni Boedhihartono, M. Fay, C. Garcia, C. van Oosten, and L. E. Buck. 2013. “Ten Principles for a Landscape Approach to Reconciling Agriculture, Conservation, and Other Competing Land Uses.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 (21): 8349–8356. Schultz, V. L. 1965. Rivers of Central Asia. – L [in Russian]. State publishing house of hydrometeorological literature. Shabunin, A. G. 2010. “Relationship between Water Discharge and Suspended Sediment Discharge on the Naryn River” Study of the Formation Factors and Assessment of the Impact of Reservoirs in the Lower-Naryn HPP Cascade on the Quality of Water Resources in the Naryn River Basin by Isotope Methods: Part 1. ISTC, Bishkek. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Shabunin, A. G. 2018. “Catalog of Glaciers of Kyrgyzstan.” Bishkek. http://www. caiag.kg/phocadownload/projects/Catalogue%20%20%20of%20glaciers%20 Kyrgyzstan%202018.pdf. Shabunin, A.G., and B. M. 2010. “Zhakeev Calculation of Sedimentation of the Toktogul Reservoir during its Operation (1974-2009).” Study of the Formation Factors and Assessment of the Impact of Reservoirs in the Lower-Naryn HPP Cascade on the Quality of Water Resources in the Naryn River Basin by Isotope Methods: Part 1. ISTC, Bishkek. Shcheglova, O. P. 1960. Feeding the Rivers of Central Asia [in Russian]. Tashkent: SamSU. Stepanov, I. N. 1961. “Snowfields of the Tien Shan.” [in Russian.] Nature. UNDP. 2012. “Feasibility Study for Developing a PES Mechanism in the Kokomeren Watershed, Aiming at Improving Water Quality to Ensure Sustainable Hydroelectricity Generation.” UNECE. 2011. UNECE Second Assessment of Transboundary Rivers, Lakes, and Groundwaters: Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes [in Russian]. Geneva: UNECE. Unique Land Use. 2020. “Cost Benefit Analysis of Agroforestry Models in Southern Kyrgyzstan.” Biodiversity Conservation and Poverty Reduction through Community- based Management of Walnut Forests and Pastures, Kyrgyzstan. 63 USAID. 2018. Climate Risk Profile Kyrgyz Republic. USDA. 2017. “Soil Survey Manual.” World Bank. 2016. Kyrgyz Republic Communities Forests and Pastures. Report number ACS13613. World Bank. 2021. “Internal Data Collection and Baseline Report.” Prepared by unique land use, FutureWater and CAIAG. Unpublished. WRI. 2016. “Atlas of Forest Landscape Restoration Opportunities.” http://www. wri.org/applications/maps/flr-atlas/#. Zhumanova, M., C. Mönnig, C. Hergarten, D. Darr, and N. Wrage-Mönnig. 2018. „Assessment of Vegetation Degradation in Mountainous Pastures of the Western Tien-Shan, Kyrgyzstan, using eMODIS NDVI.” Ecological Indicators 95: 527–543. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Annex 1. Interviewed stakeholders # Position Institution 1 Head of Department Department of Forest Ecosystem Development, Forest Service 2 Head of Division Department of Forest Ecosystem Development, Forest Service 4 Head of Department Forest Policy Department, Ministry of Agriculture 5 Chief Specialist Pasture Department, Ministry of Agriculture 6 Specialist Pasture Department, Ministry of Agriculture 7 Director Plant Production Department, Ministry of Agriculture 8 Director Toktogul RUAR 9 Director Naryn RUAR 10 Director Nichke-Say PC 64 11 Director Chek-Nura PC 12 Director Jan-Bulak PC 13 Director Sary-Bulak PC 14 Pasture user Emgekchil PC 15 Director Naryn Leskhoz 17 Director Ak-Talaa Leskhoz UNDP Conservation of Globally Important Biodiversity of the Western 18 Project Manager Tian Shan FAO project Carbon sequestration through climate investment in 19 Project Expert forests and rangelands in the Kyrgyz Republic Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Annex 2. Badland identification The preliminary map of degraded areas and accurate badland mask was created using an of feasibility of restoration interventions was upper NDVI threshold of 0.2 (the mean value for updated, after ground truthing unveiled that 2000–2020), and this layer was used to extract some of the land classified as degraded were in unproductive lands from the maps. An NDVI value fact considered by local land users and experts typically ranges between -1 and 1. Low positive as ‘badlands’, that is, naturally unproductive areas values, i.e., 0.2, represent shrub and grassland due to their soil and geological characteristics. As and thus exclude the unproductive lands. Hence a result, the degradation maps were updated by all the negative values, and values below 0.2, removing these badlands from the degradation were left out during this operation. This updated classification. This was done by ‘masking’ these ‘badland’ (naturally non-productive areas) mask is areas, using NDVI and SOC data. The most presented in Figure 18 below. Figure 18: Badland identification map 65 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Opportunities Assessment Badland Map Basin Unproductive Bad Land Kokomeren Naryn East Productive Land Naryn South Toktogul Badland Map based on NDVI Date: 2021-11-15 EPSG: 32243 Source: original elaboration for this publication CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Annex 3. Restoration opportunities in the Naryn river basin leskhozes Table 28: Restoration opportunities in the Naryn River Basin Leskhozes Leskhoz Priority Status ha % of total Leskhoz area Toktogul Consolidation 4,111 2.9 Toguz-Toro Consolidation 3,491 3.5 Naryn Consolidation 1,443 3.1 At Bashy Initial 9,248 9.4 Ak Talaa Consolidation 17,677 14.4 Jumgal Initial 424 7.0 66 Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: These results are based on data of prioritized Leskhoz and degradation classes 3-6. Exact Leskhoz boundaries were not available. Some deviation of the total area is therefore possible. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Annex 4. Restoration Opportunities within pasture committees Table 29: Restoration opportunities within pasture committees Pasture Committee Priority Status ha % (of PC) Prioritized Pasture Communities Nichke Say PC Initial 9,993 12.0 Jan Bulack PC Initial 3,972 12.7 Emgek Talaa PC Initial 6,070 15.8 Check Nura PC Consolidation 15,483 33.1 Akman PC Consolidation - - Jargylchak PC Consolidation 53 0.1 Jergetal Ak Talaa PC Consolidation 4,581 4.9 Jergetal Naryn PC Consolidation 12,255 19.2 67 Kara Burgon PC Consolidation 1,660 1.8 Min Bulak PC Consolidation 16,989 23.3 Ortok PC Consolidation 2,490 11.3 Cholpon Ata PC Consolidation 12,918 8.8 Ugut PC Consolidation 1,396 2.6 Ulahol PC Consolidation 4,955 41.1 Non-Prioritized Pasture Communities Atai PC Excluded 2,066 10.3 Jany Talap PC Excluded 3,605 9.1 Kargalyk PC Excluded 17,495 19.7 Kok Irim PC Excluded 4,681 4.7 Togolok MoldoPC Excluded 3,776 4.9 Toguz Toro PC Excluded 14,841 12.8 Emgekchill PC Excluded 7,378 17.7 Kazan Kuigan PC Excluded 4,767 38.6 Kok Jar PC Excluded 2,675 7.5 Kuzul Beles PC Excluded 1,268 7.1 Kyzyl Ozgorush PC Excluded 3,484 10.2 Ak Chiy PC Excluded 403 0.9 Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: These results are based on data of prioritized pasture committees and degradation classes 3-6. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Annex 5. Restoration Opportunities by Forest CROPS and CLASSES Table 30: Overall Spruce and Juniperus Restoration Opportunity statistics for each subbasin Class Kyrgyz Naryn Basin Naryn Basin Toktogul Kokomeren Naryn Basin number Republic South East Watershed Watershed   ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % 1 168,915.7 0.8 23,911.5 0.5 10,982.6 0.5 7,550.3 0.7 2,718.2 0.3 2,660.4 0.3 2 31,718.3 0.2 6,623.7 0.1 3,265.3 0.1 2,466.2 0.2 671.0 0.1 221.2 0.0 3 11,200.8 0.1 842.1 0.0 466.3 0.0 207.2 0.0 113.1 0.0 55.5 0.0 4 1,752.3 0.0 385.0 0.0 230.5 0.0 112.0 0.0 31.1 0.0 11.5 0.0 5 1,916.8 0.0 179.2 0.0 44.7 0.0 43.2 0.0 80.0 0.0 11.3 0.0 68 6 273.2 0.0 79.8 0.0 18.1 0.0 35.3 0.0 25.9 0.0 0.5 0.0 Total 215,777.1 32,021.3 15,007.5 10,414.2 3,639.3 2,960.6 Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: percentage total not equal to 100 due to non-applicable areas in region Table 31: Overall Pistachio / Almond Restoration Opportunity statistics for each Leskhoz Class Kyrgyz Toktogul Toguz-Toro Naryn At-Bashy Ak Talaa Naryn Basin number Republic Leskhoz Leskhoz Leskhoz Leskhoz Leskhoz ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % 1 22333.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 10.3 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4232.9 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0.4 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5520.2 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 32,096.8 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: percentage total not equal to 100 due to non-applicable areas in region Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 32: Overall Walnut Restoration Opportunity statistics for each Leskhoz Class Kyrgyz Toktogul Toguz-Toro Naryn At-Bashy Ak Talaa Naryn Basin number Republic Leskhoz Leskhoz Leskhoz Leskhoz Leskhoz ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % ha 1 32700.9 0.16 6.3 0.00 100.0 0.07 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 152.3 0.00 0.1 0.00 3.8 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 4890.7 0.02 0.2 0.00 7.6 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 10.7 0.00 0.0 0.00 2.2 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 1313.2 0.01 0.4 0.00 16.3 0.01 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 14.0 0.00 0.0 0.00 1.4 0.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 39,081.8 7 131.3 0 0 0 0 Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: percentage total not equal to 100 due to non-applicable areas in region 69 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Annex 6. Degradation and Sedimentation Assessment* Identification of hotspots of land degradation used, such as elevation models, precipitation soil and sediment sourcing organic carbon, and others. A variety of open- source datasets were used in this analysis. Where Land cover-specific soil erosion values are available possible, widely used and openly available datasets from a UNDP study on Suusamyr Valley, which is in were selected to enhance the reproducibility of the upstream part of the Naryn River Basin (UNDP, results. Table 33 shows an overview and description 2016). Reported values range between 0.25 ton/ of datasets. Their specific implementation in the ha/yr and 0.55 ton/ha/yr for different pasture types. various steps of the analyses is discussed in detail The contribution of glacially eroded sediment to in the next sections. the sediment budget of the watershed is assumed For many applications in the baseline analysis, insignificant. According to various estimates, the different gridded datasets are combined to share of glacial waters in Naryn River discharge create composite products. To combine datasets, is around 6-10%16F26, with a total glaciated area they were first re-sampled to a common grid. of the Naryn River Basin of ~2%. At an overall The common grid hereby used was the 250 m distance of > 300 km, the glaciers are situated far resolution gridding used by MODIS. Re-gridding 70 from Toktogul Reservoir. was accomplished using one of two resampling techniques depending on the data type – for Overview of data sources continuous values (e.g., Elevation), bilinear To produce the maps of land degradation and resampling was used, and for discontinuous (e.g., sediment sourcing, various data sources were Land Use) Nearest Neighbor was used. Table 33: List of data sources Data Type Resolution Source Reference Elevation Raster 30m SRTM https://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/srtm/ 0.05 degrees Precipitation Raster CHIRPS https://www.chc.ucsb.edu/data/chirps (~5000m) Soil Organic Carbon Raster 250m SoilGrids https://www.isric.org/explore/soilgrids Land Use Raster ~20m FAO Martin-Ortega (2019) https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/data- NDVI Raster 250m MODIS prod/mod13.php Erosion Observations Vector NA Collect Earth Martin-Ortega (2019) Administrative Boundaries Vector NA GADM https://gadm.org/maps.html26 Source: original elaboration for this publication Baseline land degradation assessment 26 Dikikh A.N., Usubaliev R.A., Moldoshev K.O . The state of glaciation of the Tien Shan in the second half of the 20th and early 21st centuries: General evolution, ecology, and direction of glacial runoff. // Materials of the international scientific-practical conference “Problems of improving the management of natural and socio-economic processes” dedicated to the World Earth Day and the 10th anniversary of the FEM BSU. - Special. issue of the Bulletin of the BSU named K. Karasaeva, № 2 (8). - Bishkek, 2007. -- P. 13-16. * As presented in the baseline report. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (250 m) with an 8-day frequency from 2001-2020. (NDVI) was used as a representative variable for Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) can also indicate vegetation health as it is an easily accessible output the level of degradation in the soil layer. This at high resolutions from several remote sensing metric is a proxy for total organic matter contained products, calculated as the normalized difference in the soil layer and is therefore indicative of both between Near Infrared (NIR) and Red bands with soil health and its ability to sustain vegetation the following equation: – increased organic matter is related to greater nutrient content and increased moisture retention. Soils with lower SOC are therefore likely to be either marginal or in a state of degradation due This index is widely used for studies on drought, to anthropogenic or climatological pressures. The agricultural productivity and (most appropriately) Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) map in Figure 19 shows land degradation. Most simply, NDVI is an index that SOC is highly variable in the Kyrgyz Republic, which represents plant health via calculating how with the richest soils found in the mid elevations well plants reflect light at certain frequencies, on hillslopes and poor soils in lower arid areas and with healthy plants better reflecting NIR light. The higher glaciated areas. MODIS product was selected for assessing NDVI as Figure 19: Soil organic carbon map of the this provides continuous imagery at high resolution Kyrgyz Republic Source: ISRIC SoilGrids 71 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration 0 50 100 km Opportunities Assessment SOC It/hal Naryn Basin 300 Kyrgyzstan Districts Soil Organic Carbon from 0 Water Date: 2021-06-15 SoilGrids Dataset EPSG: 32243 Data Source(s): SoilGrids, GADM CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Two key factors were calculated from NDVI and is indicative of whether the series contains a SOC datasets to determine the status of land statistically significant monotonic upward or degradation at a national scale: downward trend over time. The dataset was also analyzed using Sen’s Slope to yield a non- ി Trends – change in vegetation health over an parametric estimate of the slope of increase or observed period decrease which is not reliant on a “straight line” ി Deviation from agroclimatic class mean – the linear trend (Sen, 1968). A mask was created for extent to which values in one area deviate from significances of p-values less than 0.05 from the the mean value for a given class (in terms of Mann-Kendall test and applied to the slope raster land cover, elevation, and precipitation) to finally yield a raster showing significant trends in NDVI over time. For resulting images from both analyses, bare earth (classified as a mean NDVI from the full Pastures are used in spring, summer, and winter MODIS series of < 0.2) and water bodies were periods with different intensity. To detect removed to prevent falsely classifying these degradation of pastures, the pastures need to be areas as degraded. Bare earth areas (badlands) classified according to their grazing period time. are considered extremely low productivity due to The grazing seasonality highly depends on the factors other than land degradation (for example elevation. The vegetation or biomass (measured as geology, extreme climate, steep slope, rocks, NDVI) must be determined per pasture class over glacier moraine). the grazing period to identify degradation. For the grassland land use class, the total image series All factors described below were scaled between was therefore subsetted for images which fall in values of 0 and 1, and multiplied to arrive at a period containing both peak-growth and the a comprehensive, qualitative baseline land 72 months after, corresponding to grazing periods. degradation map with three classes (major This period was indicated by local experts as the degradation, minor degradation, no degradation). most critical to examine to show degradation from grazing of livestock and is also used in another key Trends study on land degradation using remote sensing (Eddy et al., 2017). To determine peak grazing Calculation of trends in annual NDVI values serves periods, the grassland class from the land cover to identify the sites where vegetation health has dataset. was subdivided into different pasture deteriorated over the past two decades, which can types based on elevation-based classifications be considered a strong indicator of degradation. found in Zhumanova et al. (2018). The peak grazing To compute trends in NDVI, a spatio-temporal periods for these classes were determined through time series of NDVI data from MODIS was used. a combination of consulting with local partners, The full period of this dataset (2001-2020) was examining the definitions of different pasture accessed using Google Earth Engine. types and grazing periods found in Zhumanova et The NDVI dataset was analyzed per-pixel for al. and implementing an analysis of seasonal NDVI significant trends using Mann-Kendall testing. patterns in MODIS data (Figure 20). These yielded This testing yields a p-value per pixel which the grazing periods detailed in Table 34. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 34: Division of pasture types and grazing periods Pasture Class Elevation Range [m] Grazing Months Summer 2800-3500 May-July Spring / Autumn 1300-2800 June-August Other 0-1500 Year-round Source: original elaboration for this publication based on Zhumanova et al. (2018) Figure 20: Seasonal NDVI profiles, 2001–2020 0,6 Summer Pasture Spring/Autumn Pasture Other Pasture Other Pasture Other Pasture 0,5 0,4 NDVI 0,3 73 0,2 0,1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Source: original elaboration for this publication based on NDVI MODIS data 2001–2020. Note: based on mean value per month per land use class calculated from the full MODIS dataset. For all other land use classes including the “other” cropland was excluded from the remote sensing- pasture class, forest, and cropland, NDVI images based analyses described in this report. for all months were considered to reflect the Finally, trend maps for pasture classes and forest assumption that degradation will negatively impact classes were merged to show significant trends in annual averages of vegetation conditions. While NDVI for the full domain. implementing this analysis, it turned out that no meaningful trends could be identified for the Trends in SOC were not assessed due to a lack of cropland class. This can be attributed to changes time series data on SOC for most regions of the in cropping patterns and land use during the 20- world, the Kyrgyz Republic included. As such no year period under consideration. For this reason, appropriate datasets exist to perform this analysis. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Deviation from Agroclimatic Class Means The aim of calculating deviation in NDVI and SOC Following division into agroclimatic classes, the from agroclimatic class means is to identify areas average NDVI and SOC per class is calculated. which are comparatively degraded in relation to The difference between the class mean value the average state of land in similar climatological and the value of every pixel the given class is and physiographic zones. To develop agroclimatic then calculated, yielding the deviance from the classes, the land use raster was subdivided into agroclimatic class mean. If a specific pixel value classes according to precipitation and elevation. is lower than the class mean, it can therefore be Table 35 shows the final 23 climatological and considered degraded. Most important, however, physiographic classes used for the deviance are values which are significantly different to the analysis while Figure 21 shows these spatially. This class mean and therefore the image is subsetted classification follows the approach developed for to show only pixels which are greater than one the Kyrgyz Republic by Korintenberg et al. (2021). standard deviation away from the class mean. Table 35: Class divisions according to Land use, Elevation and Total Annual Precipitation Class Number Land use Class Elevation Range [m] Precipitation Range [mm/yr] 1 Grassland 0-1500 0-300 2 Grassland 0-1500 300-600 3 Grassland 1500-2000 0-300 4 Grassland 1500-2000 300-600 74 5 Grassland 1500-2000 600-2000 6 Grassland 2000-2500 0-300 7 Grassland 2000-2500 300-600 8 Grassland 2000-2500 600-2000 9 Grassland 2500-3000 0-300 10 Grassland 2500-3000 300-600 11 Grassland 2500-3000 600-2000 12 Grassland 3000-3500 0-300 13 Grassland 3000-3500 300-600 14 Grassland 3000-3500 600-2000 15 Grassland 3500-4000 0-300 16 Grassland 3500-4000 300-600 17 Grassland 3500-4000 600-2000 18 Tree-covered areas 0-2500 300-600 19 Tree-covered areas 2500-4000 300-600 20 Cropland 0-1000 200-600 21 Cropland 1000-1500 200-600 22 Cropland 1500-2000 200-600 23 Cropland 2000-2500 200-600 Source: original elaboration for this publication based on Korintenberg et al. (2021). Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Figure 21: Agroclimatic classes map of the Kyrgyz Republic based combined land use, precipitation, and elevation datasets Kyrgyz Republic Restoration 1 6 11 16 18 20 22 Opportunities Assessment 2 7 12 17 19 21 23 3 8 13 Naryn Basin 75 Landuse-Climate zoning using Date: 2021-04-12 Landuse, precipitation and 4 9 14 EPSG: 32643 0 50 100 km Data Source(s): elevation datasets 5 10 15 FAO, CHIRPS, SRTM Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: The legend refers to classes shown in Table 35. Vulnerability to land degradation described below were scaled between values of 0 and 1, and multiplied to arrive at a comprehensive, General qualitative vulnerability map with two classes for Alongside the current state, a crucial factor each of the three key land cover types (forest, to consider in this assessment is the potential pastures, and agriculture). vulnerability of land to on-going and future NDVI degradation processes. A range of biophysical factors were hereby considered relevant to NDVI is representative of the vegetative health determine land vulnerability. These focus on the and the extent of vegetative cover (see also land’s physical characteristics, which may make Section C.1.2. Areas in which vegetative cover it more susceptible to erosion (slope, vegetation is limited or where vegetation is in poor state cover, soil erodibility) and the dominant agents of are more likely to be vulnerable to erosion due erosion (rainfall intensity). Biophysical factors were to the increased exposure of bare earth and derived from either one or a combination of the decreased protection of underlying soil offered data sources described in Section C.1.2. All factors by healthy vegetation. Mean NDVI from the full CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic MODIS timeseries (2001-2020) was therefore found along mountainous areas and in Eastern calculated to determine the average distribution regions. In the Naryn River Basin area, lower of vegetation across the Kyrgyz Republic. values are found in the upper basin, with higher values around Toktogul Reservoir indicating good Figure 22 shows the mean distribution of NDVI vegetative cover and health. across the country. This shows higher NDVI values in Northern and Western areas, with lower values Figure 22: Average NDVI across the Kyrgyz Republic based on all available MODIS images, 2001–2020 76 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Naryn Basin Opportunities Assessment NDVI 0,5 Mean NDVI 2001-2020 from Date: 2021-04-12 MODIS 0 50 100 km EPSG: 32643 -0,5 Data Source(s): MODIS Source: original elaboration for this publication based on NDVI data from MODIS 2001 -2020 Slope Mission (SRTM) elevation product using Google Slope is a key factor which influences vulnerability Earth Engine scripting. Figure 23 shows the SRTM to erosion. Erosion on steeply sloping areas is likely map, clearly illustrating that the Kyrgyz Republic to be much more pronounced due to increased is a country with extreme relief, with mountain probabilities of landslides and the accumulation ranges covering the full area and elevations in the of runoff in steeply sided gulley features. Slope range of 100-5000m. Figure 24 shows the derived was derived from the Shutter Radar Topography slope values for the whole of the Kyrgyz Republic. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Figure 23: Elevation map of the Kyrgyz Republic Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Elevation [m] Naryn Basin Opportunities Assessment Date: 2021-04-12 5000 0 50 100 km EPSG: 32643 Elevation based on SRTM 0 Data Source(s): SRTM Source: original elaboration for this publication based on SRTM data 77 Figure 24: Slope of land in the Kyrgyz Republic Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Elevation [m] Naryn Basin Opportunities Assessment Date: 2021-04-12 70 0 50 100 km EPSG: 32643 Slope Extracted from SRTM Data Source(s): SRTM Elevation Dataset 0 Source: original elaboration for this publication based on SRTM data CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Rainfall intensity Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data using the Climate Data Rainfall intensity is a key parameter which affects the erosion of sediments. In areas that experience Operators (CDOs) open-source climate data tool. high rainfall intensity, it is likely that erosion will be Precipitation intensity is calculated as the total more problematic due to both raindrop erosion and amount of precipitation for the time-period divided the accumulation of precipitation and subsequent by the number of days on which rain occurred (>1 surface runoff leading to sheet, rill, and gulley mm/day). erosion. Figure 26 shows precipitation intensity for the The precipitation range in the country is around Kyrgyz Republic based on data from 1981-2020. 400-1200 mm/year, with the largest amount This shows that the highest precipitation intensity of precipitation falling over mountains and arid is, intuitively, associated with the high mountain areas evident at lower elevations, especially areas. In the Naryn River Basin, this coincides in the Southeast (Figure 25). Rainfall intensity with the high areas which make up the boundary was calculated for the entire country from daily of the basin. Figure 25: Mean annual total precipitation, 1981-2020 78 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Naryn Basin Opportunities Assessment Annual total precip. [mm/ year] Average Precipitation 1981-2020 Date: 2021-04-12 1200 from CHIRPS dataset 0 50 100 km EPSG: 32643 0 Data Source(s): CHIRPS Source: original elaboration for this publication based on CHIRPS global precipitation dataset 1981-2020 Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Figure 26: Simple precipitation intensity index (SDII), 1981–2020 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Naryn Basin Opportunities Assessment SDII [mm/day] 79 Average Daily Rainfall Intensity Date: 2021-04-13 12 extracted from CHIRPS Dataset 0 50 100 km EPSG: 32643 2 Data Source(s): CHIRPS Source: original elaboration for this publication based on CHIRPS global precipitation dataset 1981-2020 Soil erodibility representing grazing rangelands in the mountains Soil erodibility (K) is the intrinsic susceptibility of of Kyrgyzstan and having potentially different a soil to erosion by runoff and raindrop impact. It levels of grazing pressure. We collected a total of is one of the key factors in the Universal Soil Loss 232 soil samples evenly distributed in geographical Equation (USLE) and is therefore an important space and feature space. Then we analyzed the parameter to consider in the vulnerability mapping. samples in laboratory for grain size distribution Generic, empirical equations are available from and calculated soil erodibility values from these data using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation literature, that are often applied in an analogous (RUSLE. They integrated soil sample analyses manner worldwide and commonly rely primarily on with satellite remote sensing and GIS analyses soil texture. to derive a multiple linear regression equation For the Kyrgyz Republic, a tailored method for soil that succeeded in estimating K with satisfactory erodibility estimates is available from Kulikov et al. accuracy for southern Kyrgyz Republic. Their (2020)we mapped soil erodibility at two sites, both equation was adopted for this study: K = 2.684 * 10−2 + 9.658 × 10−6 × CNBL – 2.46 × 10−2 × SER + 8.8 × 10−4 × sin(A) CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Where CNBL is the Channel Network Base Level, between bands 6 and 7 (both in the shortwave- SER is a Soil Enhancement Ratio representing infrared domain), according to USDA (2017). A hydroxyls of clays, and A is the hillslope aspect. 2020 annual Landsat-8 composite was used for assessing SER. The resulting map of K for the CNBL was derived from the DEM using the SAGA- Kyrgyz Republic is displayed in Figure 27. GIS package in QGIS. SER was derived from Landsat-8 satellite imagery as the normalized ratio Figure 27: USLE soil erodibility factor (K ) in the Kyrgyz Republic 80 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Naryn Basin K-factor (-) 0.04 0.08 Opportunities Assessment Kyrgyzstan Districts 0.025 0.05 0.06 Soil Erodibility (K-factor) 0 50 100 km Date: 2021-04-06 EPSG: 32643 Data Source(s): SoilGrids Source: original elaboration for this publication based on Landsat 8 data from 2020 and the SRTM Global Elevation dataset. Connectivity related to sediment export be used to quantify an “index of connectivity” (IC). This IC reflects the likelihood of material With an overarching objective of proposing eroded from a certain site reaching a stream sink, effective landscape restoration options, it is potentially contributing to siltation. important to not only consider status and trends locally but also the situation of a point in the The Sediment Delivery module27 of the InVEST overall catchment. Factors such as upslope and model was applied to incorporate the connectivity downslope land cover, slope gradient, size of dimension. This module calculates a so-called the upstream area, and distance to a stream can Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) for each pixel i, 27 https://invest-userguide.readthedocs.io/en/latest/sdr.html Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS which is defined as: where  C- is the average USLE  C  factor of the upslope contributing area,  S- is the average slope SDRi = SDRmax / (1 + exp(IC0 − ICi / k)) gradient of the upslope contributing area (m/m) where SDRmax is the maximum theoretical SDR, and A is the upslope contributing area (m2).  set to an average value of 0.8, and IC0 and k are The downslope component of IC is defined as calibration parameters that define the shape of the follows: SDR-IC relationship. The default InVEST values for these parameters are used in this study. IC is a function of both the area upslope of each pixel (Dup) and the flow path between the pixel and where di is the length of the flow path along the ith the nearest stream (Ddn). It is calculated as follows: cell according to the steepest downslope direction (m), Ci and Si are the C factor and the slope gradient IC = log10 (Dup / Ddn) of the ith cell, respectively. where Dup is the upslope component and Ddn is the The methodology described above is illustrated downslope component. Dup is defined as: by Figure 28. It was applied for the Naryn River Dup = C¯S¯√A Basin. Figure 28: Sediment delivery ratio (SDR) Conceptual Approach 81 Downslope path (retention): Ddn Upslope area (transport): Dup Pixel of interest: uslei × SDRi Total Export = uslei x SDRi Stream pixel i Source: InVEST user manual Note: The SDR for each pixel is a function of the upslope area and downslope flow path. Figure adapted from the InVEST user manual. As the SDR is already a unitless ratio between 0 Figure 29 shows the Sediment Delivery Ratio and 1, no further scaling needs to be applied for (SDR) value across Naryn River Basin, as integration in the next mapping steps. calculated using the InVEST model with the CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic methodology explained in Appendix C.1.4. It is a upslope and downslope conditions. This means useful measure of connectivity, with red areas on that any soil material eroded from these locations the map highlighting the sites that are most strongly is more likely to end up in a downstream river, lake, connected to the hydrological network given their or reservoir. Figure 29: Sediment delivery ratio in the Naryn River Basin 82 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Opportunities Assessment Naryn Basin Subbasin Kyrgyzstan Districts SDR Factor [-1 Water Hydropower Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) 0.6 Date: 2021-06-15 for Naryn Basin 0 25 50 km EPSG: 32643 0 Source: original elaboration for this publication Mapping overall land degradation and (A) and vulnerability to soil erosion (B) maps sediment sourcing hotspots Figure 30). The previous three sections described the Focusing on Naryn River Basin, areas of interest methods associated with producing maps A, B, in terms of major land degradation and/or and C shown in the baseline report. As shown, the vulnerability to soil erosion are western At-Bashy two final outputs of the identification of hotspots district, the southern section of Panfilov district of land degradation and sediment sourcing are (Kokomeren watershed), parts of Jumgal district, a map of overall land degradation, and a map of and a large stretch of land east of Son Kol Lake sediment sourcing hotspots. in Naryn and Kochkor districts. These are areas which could be explored for follow-up analyses Overall land degradation assessment (A x B) and identification of restoration options. This map integrates the baseline land degradation Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Figure 30: Overall land degradation with six qualitative classes Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Naryn Basin Kyrgyzstan Districts Water Opportunities Assessment Non-Applicable Land Use 0 50 100 km Extreme Low Productivity Land Vulnerability to Landscape Degradation: Categorisation 83 Date: 2021-06-10 for Pasture and Forest areas 1 2 3 4 5 6 EPSG: 32643 Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: legend categories are 1) No Degradation, Minor Vulnerability, 2) No Degradation, Major Vulnerability, 3) Minor Degradation, Minor Vulner- ability, 4) Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability, 5) Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability, and 6) Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability. Table 36: Overall land degradation statistics for each subbasin* Class Naryn Naryn Basin Naryn Basin Toktogul Kokomeren number Basin South East Watershed Watershed   ha % ha % ha % ha % ha % 1 1,314,039 26 53,6255 23 251,116 24 368,281 44 157,722 17 2 161,725 3 35,869 2 28,481 3 23,801 3 73,547 8 3 397,237 8 284,540 12 15,280 1 29,559 4 67,859 7 4 152,679 3 67,132 3 38,207 4 3,996 0 43,274 5 5 43,610 1 25,281 1 7,860 1 545 0 9,924 1 6 20,941 0 9,255 0 5,217 1 197 0 6,264 1 Total 2,090,231 958,332 346,161 426,379 358,590 Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: percentage total not equal to 100 due to non-applicable areas in region * See Figure 33 for an explanation of class numbers. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Sediment sourcing hotspots (B x C) including in Kokomeren 1 and 2, which could suffer significant siltation hazards. Upslope This map integrates the baseline land degradation areas in Toktogul watershed are also identified (A) and sediment connectivity (C) maps. It is as potentially relevant sources of sediment, delivered for Naryn River Basin only and should be while the areas immediately around the reservoir evaluated in relation to the location of downstream indicate that land degradation over the past 20 assets that are potentially vulnerable, such as years remain stable here. The map also shows the hydropower projects. Although Toktogul Reservoir sites of Kambarata-1 (under construction) and is known to not be prone to siltation over the next Kambarata-2 (operational since 2010) hydropower decades, this is not the case for other hydropower projects in blue (Figure 31). These are surrounded projects in the area. by sites of medium land degradation activity. Red areas, indicating high land degradation, are While there are no obvious direct sediment especially located in Kokomeren watershed, east sourcing areas immediately near these sites, of Son Kol, and Upper Naryn River Basin. This sediments from degradation occurring further confirms the potential risk for the hydropower upstream is expected to impact Kambarata 1 and projects that have been proposed for this area, 2 HPPs’ storage and operation. Figure 31: Sediment source areas with three qualitative classes for the Naryn River Basin 84 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Naryn Basin Subbasin Water Hydropower Opportunities Assessment Low Importance Non-Applicable Land Use Sediment Sourcing Relative Medium Importance Extreme Low Productivity Land Contribution: Categorisation for High Importance 0 25 50 km Date: 2021-06-15 Pasture and Forest areas EPSG: 32643 Source: original elaboration for this publication Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Reservoir sedimentation in the water of the Naryn River (data from Kyrgyzhydromet) at the Uch-Terek gauging station. The Toktogul hydropower dam was built in 1975 The Uch-Terek station has been operating since on the Naryn River in Jalal-Abad Province. This 1963 and is in the eastern part of the Toktogul hydropower dam is the largest in the country. It depression. In 1974-2009, the average annual is of high economic importance as it provides volume of suspended and entrained load in the around 40% of national power production. The Naryn River varied from 8 million m3 to 12 million Toktogul Reservoir has a full storage capacity of m3 per year. In 2017-18 during high-water years, 19.5 km3, of which 14 km3 is active storage. This the volume was more than 15 million m3 per year28. section synthesizes several previous studies Thus, over 35 years from the beginning of filling the to investigate the extent to which upstream reservoir in 1974, the volume of sediment supplied land degradation processes may contribute to to it is estimated between 280 and 420 million m3. sedimentation of the reservoir. Studies were carried out in 2008-2009 based on Toktogul Reservoir accumulates all suspended geodetic measurements in the drained part of the sediments that the Naryn River transports across reservoir and bathymetric surveys in its water area its entire basin starting from the headwaters. (CAIAG, 2016). Siltation of the reservoir during Sediments are not removed from the reservoir 1974-2009 was estimated at 0.38 billion m3 of since they are deposited at the bottom of the water sediment in the zone of active storage, and 0.14 area of the reservoir and do not reach the dam. billion m3 in the dead storage (CAIAG, 2016). This The dam is almost 62 km from the inflow point of amounts to 0.52 billion m3 with a total siltation area the Naryn River. The western part of the reservoir of 145 km2. As this equals a percentage of 4.5% for 18 km is a narrow canyon, up to 200 m wide in of the total reservoir, it can be concluded that places, branching off from the main thicket of the Toktogul Reservoir is not at risk of filling up over 85 reservoir, which hinders the transfer of sediments the next decades. This conclusion is well-aligned by currents from it towards the dam. The main with similar statements made by ADB (2013). sediment deposition occurs in the narrow (1 - 2.5 The distribution of sediments over the water area km) eastern part of the Toktogul Reservoir, about of the Toktogul Reservoir, determined by the 20 km long, where the Naryn River flows into it. geodetic method, is shown in Figure 32. The bulk The above was concluded from sediment of sediments is deposited in the eastern part of the concentration measurements suspended reservoir. Figure 32: Differences in the absolute heights of the reservoir bottom, 1960-2008 72o 40o 72o 50o 72o 60o 72o 70o Source: B.D. Moldobekov., Sh.E.Usupaev., A.V.Zubovich., 41o 50o A.N.Mandychev., R.A. Usubaliev., L.Joldybaeva., Z.A. Kalmetieva., A.Shabunin., Y. Podrezova.,O. Kalashnikova.,and etc.“Remote and ground earth exploration in Central Asia.” CAIAG, Bishkek.: 41o 40o 20 m 17,5 m 15,0 m 12,5 m 10,0 m 7,5 m 5,0 m 2,5 m 0,0 m -2,5 m Publishing house “City Print”, 2016. 206 p. 28 28 Study of the process of sediment deposition in the reservoirs of the Uchkurgan, Toktogul and Kambarata HPPs. Mukanov T.A. http://www.cawater- info.net/syrdarya-knowledge-base/papers/mukanov.pdf CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Figure 33 shows the average monthly flow at Uch September), which accounts for 70% of the annual Terek on Naryn River, which makes up >85% of discharge. The correlation between sediment total reservoir inflow, as well as the outflow of fluxes and Naryn River runoff is shown in Figure Toktogul Reservoir. It has been determined that 34. The correlation coefficient between liquid and the major portion of sediment inflow (88%) of the sediment fluxes is 0.91, both for average annual Naryn River enters the Toktogul Reservoir during values and for five-month periods of the year the 5 months with the highest streamflow (May - (May-September). Figure 33: Average monthly inflow and outflow (release) of Toktogul Reservoir, 2000–2010 3 Toktogul Inflow 2.5 Release 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 km3 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 86 Source: Hunink et al., 2014 Figure 34: Correlation between sediment flows and river discharge at Uch-Terek post, average annual values, 1964-1992 r(x,y) = 0,91 1800 annual average sediments, killogram per second 1600 linear (annual average) 1400 y = 4,226x - 878,6 R2 = 0,825 1200 1000 800 600 400 0 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 waterflow, cubic metre per second Source: B.D. Moldobekov., Sh.E.Usupaev., A.V.Zubovich., A.N.Mandychev., R.A. Usubaliev., L.Joldybaeva., Z.A. Kalmetieva., A.Shabunin., Y. Podrezova.,O. Kalashnikova.,and etc. “Remote and ground earth exploration in Central Asia.” CAIAG, Bishkek.: Publishing house “City Print”, 2016. 206 p. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Measurements of Kyrgyzhydromet from 1963- increased to such an extent that it comes close 1974 showed that the maximum suspended to total sediment yield from the upstream of the sediment runoff in Toktogul Watershed is 12 g/s/ Naryn River Basin. km2. Accordingly, 2.1 million tons of sediments, or Although Toktogul Reservoir itself may not be 1.06 million m3, if the sediment’s density is taken at risk of siltation, there are other hydropower equal to 2t/m3, comes to the reservoir from the projects located further upstream in the entire basin area per year. It should be noted that watershed that are more likely to be subject to the calculated value of the sediment inflow from a sedimentation hazard. This is expected to Toktogul Watershed of 378 t/yr/km2 (3.8t/yr/ha; be the case for Kambarata 1 (currently under 1.9 m3/yr/ha at a density of 2t/m3) is consistent construction) and Kambarata 2 (operational), with the amount of sediment inflow per year with Kokomeren 1 and 2 (under construction), and the rest the area of the Naryn River Basin (52,000 At-Bashy HPP (operational). In one calculation km2). In general, Naryn River’s annual contribution scenario, the latter is expected to not be able to of sediments to the Toktogul Reservoir is an operate properly because of sediments after a order of magnitude higher than the smaller water period of nine years (UNDP, 2016). However, the courses entering the reservoir. Despite the lack unavailability of data did not make it possible to of more recent measurements of suspended make a thorough assessment for these reservoirs, sediments, it is very unlikely that the amount of nor of other reservoirs in the country affected by sediment inflow from Toktogul watershed has sedimentation. 87 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Annex 7. Climate change screening Climate risk screening of Naryn Methodology River Basin Overall, the Climate Risk Screening is made up of the following approaches: Summary of trends 1. Analysis of historic climate events 2. Projections of future climates A summary of the projected trends in climate resulting from the analysis in this section is as Analysis of historic climate events follows: The applied methodology starts at analyzing ി Historical data on temperature shows that historic observations of climate related events temperatures have increased in the period and to perform a trend analysis. Obviously, 1979-2019 by around 0.8ºC in 40 years (about trends, or the absence of trends, do not imply 0.2ºC/decade). The study area experiences that future changes will follow those historic large variations in temperature, with average trends. Any statistical trend analysis should be daily temperatures ranging from around -20 to accompanied by understanding the underlying 88 18ºC over the course of the year. physical processes. Analysis of historic climate ി For precipitation: an increasing trend in total events should go beyond looking at weather annual rainfall is evident for the historic parameters (e.g., temperature and wind) only, but period, but with high variability around this should include parameters that might have been trend. Most rainfall occurs in the months influenced by historic weather conditions. Given April – September, with the rest of the year the needs of this specific study, the following experiencing drier conditions. parameters were analyzed: ി For the 2030 horizon, temperatures are likely ി Precipitation and temperature to go up by around 1.5ºC, compared to the ി Tropical storm frequency and storm surge risk historic reference period (year 2000). For the ി Flooding 2060 horizon, this is around 3ºC. ി Droughts and water shortages ി For mean annual precipitation, the climate ി Land cover changes models suggest an increase in precipitation The ERA5 reanalysis product29 is used to represent into the future, with high consensus among historical trends in temperature and precipitation models. The predicted magnitude of change, for the given area of interest. This product is however, varies among models. used as it provides global, spatially gridded time ി For rainfall extremes, analysis shows that series of climate variables at resolutions of 31 km the intensity of rainfall on average, and the and sub-daily (3hr) timescales. The dataset is magnitude of extreme precipitation events will fully operational (updated every month) and has increase into the future. been running from 1979 to the present. From 29 https://www.nasa.gov/nex/data Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS this dataset, spatially averaged time series of analyzed to give a range of future predictions. RCP precipitation and temperature are extracted for the 4.5 represents a “stabilization scenario” in which study area at daily, weekly, and yearly timescales greenhouse gas emissions peak around 2040 and for the entire period that the dataset covers. This are then reduced. RCP 8.5, in contrast, represents allows for the analysis of annual and seasonal a worst-case scenario, in which emissions continue trends in historical climate alongside extremes. unabated throughout the century. These scenarios are selected as they represent a good envelope of Projections of future climates changes in climate and hence cover a wide range of future changes in temperature and precipitation Projections of future climates are provided by relating to project implementation. Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is Alongside the two RCP scenarios, projections were the credible body on climate change projections. evaluated at the following time horizons: An important source for climate projections are ി Reference (historical) period [1990]: 1976–2005 the results from the CMIP 5 activities. CMIP5 is the ി Near future [2030]: 2016–2045 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 that led to a standardised set of model simulations. ി Distant future [2060]: 2046–2075 Since downscaling and local adjustment of GCMs are needed, NASA has developed the so-called Climate Extremes Indices NEX-GDDP projections (NASA Earth Exchange To determine future trends in extreme climate Global Daily Downscaled Projections). The dataset events, CLIMDEX30 variables were used. These is provided to assist in conducting studies of represent a standardized, peer reviewed way climate change impacts at local to regional scales, of representing extremes in climate data and and to enhance public understanding of probable are widely used in climate analyses. These are 89 future global climate patterns at the spatial scale produced through processing the NASA-NEX of individual towns, cities, and watersheds. dataset with CDO software. This takes as input The NASA-NEX-GDDP exist out of 21 GCM outputs spatially gridded daily time series and returns yearly for two Representative Concentration Pathway series of CLIMDEX indices. This process is useful as (RCPs) (4.5 and 8.5) for a historic period and for the it effectively reduces the amount of data analysis future up to 2100. For this climate risk screening, needed whilst retaining the ability to represent the data were used for two purposes: analysing extremes within data in a comparable way. For this changes in the average climatology and changes study’s purposes, the indices described in Table 37 in climatic extremes. Two RCP scenarios were are considered most relevant out of the 27 available. Table 37: CLIMDEX precipitation indices used in the study Index name Description Unit Simple precipitation intensity index: sum of precipitation in wet days during the year SDII mm divided by the number of wet days in the year Rx1day Annual maximum 1-day precipitation mm Annual maximum consecutive dry days: annual maximum length of dry spells, sequences CDD days of days where daily precipitation is less than 1mm per day. TXx Annual maximum of daily maximum temperature Celsius Source: original elaboration for this publication30 https://www.climdex.org/learn/ 30 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Results (around 18ºC) occurring during May – September (Figure 35). Analysis of temperature data shows Temperature trends that temperatures have increased in the period Historical data on temperature shows that average 1979-2019 (up to 0.8ºC in 40 years, see Figure annual temperatures are around -1ºC for the study 36). This trend is extracted from the yearly area. Temperature is variable throughout the average temperature time series and has medium year, with highest average monthly temperatures statistical significance. Figure 35: Average annual maximum and minimum daily temperatures, ERA-5 dataset with trendline 90 Source: ERA-531 Note: Mann Kendall Tau value indicates the strength of the monotonic trend of increase or decrease in a time series, with a value of 1 indicating a strong significant trend and -1 indicating no trend. 31 ERA-5 is the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the global climate covering the period from January 1950 to present, provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). ERA5 is produced by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) at ECMWF. ERA5 provides hourly estimates of a large number of atmospheric, land and oceanic climate variables. provides hourly estimates of a large number of atmospheric, land and oceanic climate variables. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era5 Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Figure 36: Seasonality in temperature, ERA-5 dataset Monthly average mean daily temperature [C] Jan Feb 10 Mar 5 Apr May 0 Jun -5 Jul Aug -10 Sep Oct -15 Nov -20 Dec 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: ERA-5 Precipitation trends for this period, but with lots of variability around Historical data on precipitation shows that this and low statistical significance attached to the average total annual precipitation is around 800 trend. Most of this rainfall occurs in the months mm on average for the study area (Figure 37). A April – September, with dry conditions prevailing trend of increasing total annual rainfall is evident in October – March (Figure 38). 91 Figure 37. Total yearly and maximum one-day precipitation, ERA-5 dataset with trendline Mean = 812 [mm/yr]; Trend = +0.79 ; Mann-Kendall Tau +0.07 950 P Total (mm/year) 900 850 800 750 700 650 7.0 P Q90 (mm/day) 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 total max. trend Source: ERA-5 Note: Mann Kendall Tau value indicates the strength of the monotonic trend of increase or decrease in a time series, with a value of 1 indicating a strong significant trend and -1 indicating no trend. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Figure 38: Seasonality of precipitation, ERA-5 database Monthly total precipitation [mm] Jan Feb 150 Mar Apr May 100 Jun Jul Aug 50 Sep Oct Nov Dec 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: ERA-5 Projections of Future Climate longer-term horizon 2045-2075, this increases to around 1.5-5°C, with a larger spread in model Average trends in temperature and precipitation predictions (Figure 40 and Figure 41). In terms of average climate trends, the climate The picture in terms of precipitation is less clear. On model ensemble predicts an increase in mean average, the model ensemble predicts an increase temperature in the upcoming 60 years (Figure 39). in precipitation for all RCPs and time horizons, with 92 It is also clear that under the higher RCP scenario, broad consensus across most models, but the a larger increase in temperature is expected. For magnitude of this change is uncertain (Figure 44). the short-term horizon 2015-2045, changes in Model predictions range from a -5% decrease to a temperature in the range of around 0.5-2°C are 25% increase for 2015-2045, and a -15% decrease predicted by the climate model ensemble, for the to a 30% increase for 2045-2075. Figure 39: Time series of mean yearly temperature based on ERA5 dataset for the historical period (1979-2019), and NASA NEX (per model bias corrected) for the future period Historical (ERA5) RCP45 (NASA-NEX) RCP85 (NASA-NEX) 4 Temperature (C) 2 0 10th-90th Percentile of Climate Model Ensemble RCP45 -2 10th-90th Percentile of Climate Model Ensemble RCP85 Year 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: Shaded areas show the 10th and 90th percentiles in the spread of model predictions Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Figure 40: Time series of total yearly precipitation based on ERA5 dataset for the historical period (1979-2019), and NASA NEX (per model bias corrected) for the future period 1400 Historical (ERA5) RCP45 (NASA-NEX) RCP85 (NASA-NEX) 1200 Precipitation (mm) 1000 800 10th-90th Percentile of Climate Model Ensemble RCP45 600 10th-90th Percentile of Climate Model Ensemble RCP85 Year 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: Shaded areas show the 10th and 90th percentiles in the spread of model predictions Figure 41: Average temperature and precipitation changes Projected changes in climatic means 93 Temperature (C) Precipitation (%) Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: (Δ) indicate the difference between historical (1976-2005) and future (2015-2045; 2045:2075) time horizons for the two RCP scenarios CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Seasonality GCM ensemble results for precipitation seasonality (Figure 43) suggest an increase in precipitation In terms of seasonality, climate model ensembles for most months besides the wetter months of predict a general increase in temperatures for June and July. This trend is more extreme under all months (Figure 42). A greater increase in the RCP85 scenario. This result must, however, be temperatures is predicted in the longer term considered uncertain due to the variation shown (2045-2075) timescale and under the higher RCP in model predictions for precipitation. 8.5 scenario. Figure 42: Average daily temperature per month for historical (1976–2005) and future (2015–2045; 2045–2075) time horizons under the two RCP scenarios Historical RCP45 2030 RCP45 2060 RCP85 2030 RCP85 2060 -15 -10 Temperature (C) -5 10 -5 -10 -15 94 Month May Dec Nov Aug Sep Mar Feb Jun Oct Jan Apr Jul Source: original elaboration for this publication Figure 43: Average total monthly precipitation per month for historical (1976–2005) and future (2015–2045; 2045–2075) time horizons under the two RCP scenarios Historical RCP45 2030 RCP45 2060 RCP85 2030 RCP85 2060 120 100 Precipitation (mm) 80 60 40 Month May Dec Nov Aug Sep Mar Feb Jun Oct Jan Apr Jul Source: original elaboration for this publication Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Extreme Climate Trends severity of heatwaves in the area (Figure 44). When extreme trends are considered, a large level In terms of extreme precipitation trends, of variation is evident in climate model predictions. projections suggest that maximum 1-day rainfall This is expected as climate models are inherently (Figure 45) and rainfall intensity (Figure 46) are limited in terms of predicting trends in extremes both likely to increase, indicating a change in due to the stochastic nature of these events. precipitation patterns towards more intense and less frequent periods of rainfall. Trends in terms In terms of extreme temperature trends, the climate of consecutive dry days (Figure 47) are less model ensemble shows a clear trend of increasing clear, with models predicting both decreases and extreme temperatures under both RCP scenarios increases in dry spells. and time horizons, suggesting an increase in the Figure 44: Boxplots indicating the spread in climate model predictions of maximum daily temperature per year (TXX) for the historical (1976-2005) and future time periods under two RCP scenarios 95 Source: original elaboration for this publication Figure 45: Boxplots indicating the spread in climate model predictions of maximum 1-day precipitation sum per year (Rx1Day) for the historical (1976–2005) and future time periods under two RCP scenarios Source: original elaboration for this publication CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Figure 46: Boxplots indicating the spread in climate model predictions of precipitation intensity (SDII) for the historical (1976–2005) and future time periods under two RCP scenarios Source: original elaboration for this publication Figure 47: Boxplots indicating the spread in climate model predictions of Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) for the historical (1976–2005) and future time periods under two RCP scenarios. 96 Source: original elaboration for this publication Summary Tables This shows consistency between GCMs in terms of predicting a warmer future climate in the study The combination of 21 GCMs, two RCPs and two- area (especially for the longer-term horizon) but time horizons leads to a total of 84 (21 * 2 * 2) producing inconsistent predictions in terms of projections for the future. Table 38 shows detailed precipitation. results for all 84 projections of changes in mean annual temperature and total annual precipitation. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 38: Average climate change (delta values) in total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature predicted by the full climate model (GCM) ensemble MIROC-ESM-CHEM CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 IPSL-CM5A-MR IPSL-CM5A-LR GFDL-ESM2M GFDL-ESM2G MPI-ESM-MR MPI-ESM-LR MRI-CGCM3 CESM1-BGC MIROC-ESM CNRM-CM5 NorESM1-M bcc-csm1-1 GFDL-CM3 BNU-ESM CanESM2 MIROC5 inmcm4 CCSM4 2030_RCP45 3% 16% 19% 5% 10% 13% 2% 10% 3% 14% 1% -2% -2% 17% 11% 18% 9% 3% 15% 0% Precip (%) 2060_RCP45 4% 16% 23% 8% 10% 19% 11% 15% 16% 12% 4% -1% -17% 23% 18% 18% 7% 15% 26% 9% 2030_RCP85 8% 10% 26% 1% 11% 11% -2% 16% 10% -3% -7% 0% -10% 18% 23% 27% 19% 20% 18% 6% 2060 RCP85 6% 18% 34% 10% 12% 27% 14% 23% 16% 7% -5% 2% -14% 29% 30% 24% 20% 15% 28% 9% 2030_RCP45 1.37 1.84 2.18 1.64 1.39 1.18 1.51 2.60 1.07 0.78 0.53 1.79 2.06 1.75 1.83 1.59 1.29 1.68 0.92 1.73 Tavg (oC) 2060_RCP45 2.25 2.66 3.43 2.48 2.26 1.87 2.82 4.09 1.52 1.64 1.31 3.33 3.37 3.17 3.55 2.78 2.27 2.18 1.83 2.79 2030_RCP85 1.58 2.24 2.57 1.92 1.60 1.39 1.68 2.69 1.23 1.40 0.87 2.18 2.28 2.40 2.25 1.66 1.22 1.45 1.11 1.83 2060_RCP85 3.44 4.08 4.79 3.48 3.29 2.79 3.42 5.16 2.52 2.53 2.34 4.39 4.86 5.17 4.76 3.99 3.07 3.19 2.77 3.53 Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: This indicates the difference between historical (1976-2005) and future (2015-2045; 2045:2075) time horizons for the two RCP scenarios 97 Table 39 and Table 40 show the main statistics In summary, all GCMs predict a hotter future, (median, 10th percentile and 90th percentile) of with most predictions lying between 1 to 2ºC the changes in precipitation and temperature, for 2030 and 2 to 5ºC for 2060. There is a clear respectively. It also includes the number of GCMs consensus in precipitation predictions, with that are showing a positive versus negative most GCMs predicting a wetter future under change for precipitation, and number of GCMs both RCP scenarios. that are predicting a change above 2ºC and 4ºC. Table 39: Spread in Climate Model (GCM) ensemble predictions for future changes in total annual precipitation Median (%) 25th Perc. (%) 75th Perc. (%) GCMs Dryer GCMs Wetter 2030_RCP45 8% 2% 14% 2 18 2060_RCP45 12% 8% 18% 2 18 2030_RCP85 10% 1% 19% 4 16 2060_RCP85 15% 7% 27% 2 18 Source: original elaboration for this publication CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 40: Spread in Climate Model (GCM) ensemble predictions for future changes in mean annual temperature Median (ºC) 25th Perc. (ºC) 75th Perc. (ºC) GCMs >2ºC GCMs >4ºC 2030_RCP45 +1.5 +1.2 +1.8 3 0 2060_RCP45 +2.6 +1.9 +3.3 15 1 2030_RCP85 +1.8 +1.4 +2.2 7 0 2060_RCP85 +3.7 +2.9 +4.7 20 7 Source: original elaboration for this publication Implications for sedimentation in hydropower Potential increased runoff due to snow and reservoirs in Naryn River Basin ice melt. Increases in average and extreme temperatures in the Naryn River Basin will This climate change screening enables to derive accelerate snow and ice melting processes the following implications for restoration measures within the area. This may generate increased and for sedimentation in hydropower reservoirs in runoff in warm periods in river channels and Naryn River Basin: overland, leading to further soil erosion and land Increased erosion from rainfall and runoff. degradation. 98 Increases in precipitation intensity and the Climate change will significantly impact erosion magnitude of extreme precipitation events will in this region as flows will become more variable, lead to increased erosion. Areas with reduced due to the reduced regulating role of snow and vegetation cover, erodible soil types, and steep glaciers in the Naryn River Basin. Therefore, slopes are particularly vulnerable to erosion spatiotemporal modelling tools are needed for a from intense precipitation. These changes quantitative assessment of baseline conditions and in precipitation patterns can also lead to soil scenario analyses of different land management liquefaction, mudflows, and gullying, which can and climate change projections. Well-established exacerbate land degradation in the future. examples of such models for erosion scenario Potential risks of degradation through wind studies are InVEST and SPHY32. erosion during drought periods. Some climate To calibrate and validate such models, field models predict an increase in the length of dry measurements of erosion and suspended sediment periods. As a result, drought periods may lead to concentrations are required. However, the existing increased vulnerability of land in areas with fine knowledge base on erosion and sedimentation in soil types to wind erosion, leading to further land the Kyrgyz Republic across different terrains and degradation stresses in the future. land use types is limited. Those studies that do Increased temperature stress on vegetation. exist report values covering a wide range, which Increases in extreme temperatures may limits their usability in model calibration (e.g. negatively affect vegetation communities, vital in UNDP, 2016). counteracting land degradation. The impact of increased climate change- 32 https://www.sphy.nl/ Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS induced variability on reservoir sedimentation warmer temperatures will cause more sediment processes still needs to be fully assessed and to reach all the country’s reservoirs in the future, will need to be considered in further, longer- accelerating the loss of storage capacity for most term analyses. However, it can be expected that of the Kyrgyz Republic’s reservoirs, including melting glaciers and increased peak flows due to Toktogul. 99 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Annex 8. Restoration measures and models: Description and inputs Table 41: Restoration measures and models Scale: National Name of the measure: Reforestation in riparian areas/forests Description of the measure Main inputs The objectives of afforestation/reforestation in riparian forests can be: ി Cuttings and seedlings ി Cross border landscape restoration ി Labour ി Fuelwood production • Plantation ി Timber production (wood for construction material) • Watering (where necessary) ി NTFP production • Maintenance (several times a year Riverbank stabilization for 3-5 years) 100 ി ി Cross border restoration potential • Pest management Tree species that are adapted for reforestation activities in riparian • Fence installation and maintenance forests are fast-growing species (e.g., poplars, willows) which can be ി Equipment/material planted as cuttings. • Fencing material or exclusion of In the Kyrgyz Republic, riparian forests belong to several State bodies, livestock through other technics including local self-governance, the Ministry of transport and others • Irrigation equipment and material which do not actively undertake any action related to afforestation/ (e.g., hoses, pumps, reservoirs) reforestation. • Machinery (car or light truck) Expected benefits: ി Timber production ി Firewood production ി Biodiversity ി Reduced erosion ി Carbon sequestration ി Natural capital increase Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 41 Scale: National Name of the measure: Afforestation / reforestation with high quality seedlings and polybags with protection measure (pistachio, walnut, juniper, and spruce) Description of the measure Main inputs Plantation of tree seedlings on land where there were no trees before ി High quality seedlings (selected (afforestation) and where there used to be trees (reforestation). The seeds, polybags) objectives of such plantations can be: ി Labour ി Landscape restoration • Plantation ി Timber production (construction and fuelwood) • Watering (where necessary) ി NTFP production • Maintenance (several times a year ി Erosion control for 3-5 years) ി Carbon sequestration • Fence installation and maintenance ി Biodiversity conservation ി Equipment/material ി Greening • Fencing material or other type of Seedlings are grown in polybags to increase survival during enclosure transport and after the plantation. The plantations need to be • Irrigation equipment and material fenced or protected to limit grazing of young seedlings. (e.g., hoses, pumps, reservoirs) Fenced areas can be used for hay production which results in • Machinery (car or light truck) additional income, as an incentive for the land leaser and encourages weeding in the first three to five years. In the Kyrgyz Republic, leskhozes establish more than 1,000ha of new forest plantations annually. A small share of it uses seedlings in 101 polybags. Protection against livestock is usually not foreseen. This results in a low survival rate. Expected benefits: Benefits are related to timber production, firewood production, NTFP (walnuts), and hay (in the first 5 years), biodiversity, reduced erosion, carbon sequestration, contribution to natural capital increase CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 41 Scale: National Name of the measure: Assisted natural regeneration (pistachio, walnut, juniper, and spruce forests) Description of the measure Main inputs Assisted natural regeneration can involve various activities that ി Seedlings (in case of enrichment aim at supporting the growth of young trees and bushes in existing planting) forests. Selected tree cutting is prohibited in most forests of the ി Labour Kyrgyz Republic and cannot be used to favour regeneration by • Plantation or sowing (if needed) decreasing shade from the canopy. • Watering (where necessary) The objectives of assisted natural regenerations can be: • Seedling marking (to avoid ി Timber production (construction and fuelwood) destruction during haymaking) ി NTFP production • Grass removal around seedlings ി Rejuvenation of forest stands (to reduce light competition) Assisted natural regeneration entails activities that aim at: • Tree guard installation and ി Providing enough sunlight to young trees maintenance ി Limiting disturbances (e.g., grazing) that may affect their • Livestock management growth (shepherding) ി Selecting and favouring the regeneration of high-value species ി Equipment/material or high biodiversity value (depending on the objective pursued • Tree guards (rebars, mesh fence) - see above) • Machinery (car or light truck) ി Where the seedbank is too limited (e.g., intensive nut collection), enrichment plantations can be considered In the Kyrgyz Republic, leskhozes have forest regeneration 102 objectives. However, the only activities which are usually implemented is ploughing (минеральные полосы) to improve the germination rate of seeds. Rarely, grazing bans are enforced through agreement with pasture users or using green fences. Expected benefits: ി Timber production ി Firewood production ി Local income from NTFP (pistachio, walnuts) ി Biodiversity ി Reduced erosion ി Carbon sequestration ി Natural capital increase Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 41 Agricultural lands Scale: National Name of the measure: Efficient use of water resources Description of the measure Main inputs There are a range of water management practices which help in Different for each practice. using water more efficiently than most farmers conventionally (Ranges from leaving plant residues, do. Some of these are technical measures, such as short-furrow mulching to drip irrigation system) irrigation, alternate furrow irrigation and more. Drip irrigation is also an efficient irrigation method. Non-technical methods are water measuring and payment per volume of water used. Leaving crop residues and mulching is also a cheap practice to maintain soil moisture Objectives: ി Efficient use of water resources ി Avoided erosion due to better soil cover ി Recovering of non-used or badly used soils for agriculture ി Fruit production in dry areas with irrigation Expected benefits: ി Avoided soil erosion ി Increased productivity ി Regreening of abandoned sites ി Carbon sequestration due to increased biomass 103 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 41 Agricultural lands Scale: National Name of the measure: No-tillage/minimum tillage Description of the measure Main inputs No/minimum tillage crop cultivation means direct sowing without ി Quality seeds (hybrid in case of maize, ploughing and harrowing the soil. Direct sowing is possible on special varieties of wheat and barley irrigated and rain-fed land. It requires special seeders. The in case of rain-fed land) and seeds for transition to direct sowing in the first years requires the use of green manure herbicides. Green manure should be added to maintain permanent ി Labour soil cover and to produce more biomass and reduce erosion. Crop Farmer’s or hired labour force for all the rotation is important (see also next measure). cultivation operations. In the Kyrgyz Republic, it is so far mainly used for maize and grain ി Fertilizers/pesticides: crops and is being tested for safflower. The technology is not yet widely used in the country. Direct sowing seeders for irrigated • Ammophos, carbamide fertilizer. land are currently located in Kemin (Chui), in Tong rayon (IK), in • Herbicides (in the first 2-3 years). Budenovka village (Chui) and with Kench seed farm in Shaidan • Plant protection means (depending village (Nooken). Direct sowing seeders for rainfed land are in on the crop). Kadamjay, Batken and Leylek rayons, in Bazar-Korgon and in ി Equipment/material Suzak rayons of Jalal-Abad oblast. There may be some more such • Special seeder for direct sowing (to seeders in other locations. be used together with a tractor; in Expected benefits: the case of direct seeders for rainfed With direct sowing the soil is less disturbed than with ploughing land a 90 Hp tractor is required). and a permanent plant cover is maintained. The main positive 104 • Disc cultivators in case of direct impacts are: sowing on rainfed land that has not ി Better water holding capacity in the long term been cultivated for a longer period. ി Higher soil fertility, soil health • Combine harvesters, straw balers ി Reduced need for fertilizer reduced soil erosion (wind and • On irrigated land: irrigation water erosion) equipment and material on (e.g., ി Reduced erosion hoses, pumps, reservoirs). Specific to each field ി Carbon sequestration Capacity building investments Disadvantages: High upfront investment costs for seeders ി ി and long-term capacity building required Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 41 Agricultural lands Scale: National Name of the measure: Introduction of crop rotation and cover crops Description of the measure Main inputs Crop rotation is necessary for maintaining soil fertility in the long Crop rotation term. There are diverse suitable rotation patterns. A leguminous ി Quality seeds, crop, which fixes nitrogen, is included in all sensible rotation ി Fertilizers/pesticides patterns. Because of small land plots, it is not always easy to convince farmers in KR about crop rotation. Vegetables, potatoes, Fertilizer, plant protection means maize, and cotton are too often grown in sequential years. The ി Equipment/material fact that most farmers need to grow feed crops for their livestock • Plough, harrow, seeder favours rotation patterns with lucerne or alfalfa. • Grass cutting machines, balers Cover crops (green manure) are plants planted to cover the soil • On irrigated land: irrigation rather than to be harvested. Mostly they are ploughed under, after equipment and material on some time and act as green manure or better mulched or even (e.g., hoses, pumps, reservoirs). better used as cover crop in direct seeding/ no tillage systems. Specific to each field Cover crops contribute to avoid soil erosion, maintain soil fertility, ി Labour soil quality, water retention, reduce weeds, pests, and diseases, and improves biodiversity in an agroecosystem. Cover crops / • Farmer’s or hired labour force for green manure crops are rare in KR, because it is unimaginable for all the cultivation operations. Kyrgyz farmers to plant something which is then not harvested. Cover crops But there are also cover crops which can be harvested or used as ി Seeds fodder like winter rye, lupine, white or black oat, millet, buckwheat, ി Labour safflower, alfalfa, red clover, canola, chickpea, dry pea, lentil, sunflower, rapeseed, mustard. Cover crops, which can be cut as • Farmer’s or hired labour force for all the cultivation operations 105 livestock feed and only partly ploughed under or managed as no- tillage system may have a chance. Other obstacles to cover crops ി Equipment/material are low winter temperatures and lack of irrigation water in autumn • Plough, harrow, seeder when cover crops need to be planted. • On irrigated land: irrigation equipment and material on (e.g., hoses, pumps, reservoirs). Specific to each field CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 41 Agricultural lands Scale: Naryn Name of the measure: Agroforestry models combining walnut trees, fruit trees, fast growing trees (hedgerows), native bushes, hay production and agriculture in SFF and private lands Description of the measure Main inputs Agroforestry models combine annual with perennial crops. They ി Seedlings / saplings / seeds / cuttings intend to create a complex environment which provides multiple of the distinct species include in the benefits to the plot owner and is more resilient to extreme system climate events. In the Kyrgyz Republic, agroforestry systems ി Labour typically produce food products (e.g., crops, fruits, berries), • Plantation fodder and timber (construction and fuelwood). Considering the important grazing pressure in the Kyrgyz Republic, agroforestry • Watering (if needed) fields need to be fenced, at least until a living fence can be • Maintenance (incl. pest management) established. Haymaking is an important benefit and incentive • Fence installation and maintenance in the first 5 years if the area is not used for crop production. A ി Equipment/material combination of haymaking, crops, fruits, and timber trees gives the highest benefit. • Fencing material or other type of enclosure The objective of agroforestry is: • Irrigation equipment and material ി Landscape restoration (e.g., hoses, pumps, reservoirs) ി Timber production (construction and fuelwood) • Machinery (e.g., tractor, etc.) ി Fruit and crop production ി Income generation ി Enhanced biodiversity 106 Expected benefits: ി Fruits, berries, crops ി Hay ി Timber and firewood ി Biodiversity ി Soil protection, less erosion ി Carbon sequestration ി Natural capital increase Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 41 Pasture lands Scale: National Name of the measure: Temporary grazing ban in degraded areas in all pasture types Description of the measure Main inputs Degraded pastures in KG still can (enough seed bank in soil) recover ി Transport cost to other pasture area if grazing is banned for some time (the period length is defined ി Higher cost of pasture ticket if the based on the plant community in the chosen ecosystem). pasture where the shepherd moves The economic return from degraded pastures is lower compared to belong to another Ayil Okmotu the healthy ones. However, pasture users are rarely motivated to stop grazing for some time due to the following reasons: ി It is the pasture they traditionally use, and they consider it as inherited from their parents ി Transporting livestock to other remote pastures incurs substantial costs ി There is no guarantee that a user who stops temporarily grazing livestock on a plot will not lose his right to use it in the future Expected benefits: ി Improved biomass (productivity, biodiversity, carbon sequestration etc.) ി Improved weight gain of grazing livestock ി Improved soil stability, reduced soil erosion Table 41 Pasture lands 107 Scale: National Name of the measure: Access to remote pastures through infrastructure improvement (e.g., watering points, bridges, roads, etc.) Description of the measure Main inputs Pasture infrastructure (roads, bridges, water points) has been ി Labour steadily degrading since 1991. Since the establishment of pasture • Construction of infrastructure committees in 2009 and the collection of a user fee by these (depends on each case) committees, more investment is allocated to constructing and ി Equipment/material repairing infrastructure. International development projects have also been financially supporting these activities. Still, these efforts • Construction materials (cement, do not cover all needs and some remote pastures are still hardly pebbles, sand, re-bars, I-beams, accessible. square hollow steel sections, structural channel, plastic pipes Improving access to these remote pastures through infrastructure etc.). The quantity and quality of improvement would help destock livestock from over-grazed and material depends on the selected degraded pastures. infrastructure Expected benefits: ി Improved biomass in near-village pastures and other degraded pastures ി Improved weight gain of grazing livestock ി Improved biomass (productivity, biodiversity, carbon sequestration etc.) ി Better epizootic conditions due to cleaner water in watering point (concerns water points improvement only) CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 41 Pasture lands Scale: National Name of the measure: Rotational grazing, grazing schedule in summer and winter pastures for increasing productivity and improving palatability Description of the measure Main inputs This is a similar measure as temporary grazing ban in degraded ി Labour areas in that the main goal of the rotation is to provide a sufficient More working hours (labour) for herding period for pasture vegetation to recover after a limited grazing ി Equipment/material period (i.e., not after year-long or seasonal-long grazing). Optional: Fencing material (permanent An additional benefit of rotational grazing compared to grazing or temporary) to subdivide the pasture ban is that it can improve the harvest efficiency (i.e., to have a into several paddocks greater forage production that in a no-grazing situation): “Harvest ി Other costs efficiency of season-long continuous grazing is about 25% and usually 30-35% for rotational grazing when both are moderately To delay grazing in spring pastures, it is stocked”. More details here. necessary to feed the livestock in stables for longer time which means more forage Expected benefits: should be stored/purchased ി Improved biomass (productivity, biodiversity, carbon sequestration etc.) ി Improved weight gain of grazing livestock Table 41 Protective lands Scale: National 108 Name of the measure: Riverbank protection and gully stabilization through green infrastructure (plantation of adapted grass, bush, and tree species) Description of the measure Main inputs Riverbanks are sensitive to erosion, especially in mountain areas Labour, equipment, building material and where the hydrological profile of rivers is characterized by high further maintenance depend on the type seasonal water and recurrent floods. The root system of trees, of infrastructure. bush, and herbs play a significant role in stabilizing riverbanks. Unstable riverbanks are at risk to be heavily eroded during high water periods and to reject in the water course various material (e.g., soil, pebbles) that can create additional damages downstream (e.g., sedimentation, degradation of infrastructure). Gullies are created by water runoff on bare soil or soil with limited vegetation cover. They are an important source of soil loss. Green infrastructure aims at stabilizing riverbanks and gullies using a mix of living plants combined with natural materials such as geotextile and wooden structures. Some examples of wooden structures are palisade, check dams, crib walls. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 41 Protective lands Scale: National Name of the measure: Riverbank protection and gully stabilization through grey infrastructure (gabions, check dams) Description of the measure Main inputs Grey infrastructure aims at stabilizing riverbanks Labour, equipment, material for building and further and gullies using mineral materials such as gabions, maintenance depend on the type of infrastructure. concrete, rocks etc. Source: original elaboration for this publication 109 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Annex 9. Sensitivity analysis for CBA tables Table 42: Discount rate sensitivity analysis in restoration models Land type - # Discount rate 5% 8% 11% 14% activity - model NPV $21,060 $13,680 $8,934 $5,820 Forest - Afforestation 1 -Walnut  IRR 31% NPV $1,591 $633 $17.48 $383 Forest - Afforestation - 2  Pistachio  IRR 11% NPV $1,797 $1,821 $1,814 $1,788 Forest - Afforestation - 3  Spruce  IRR -9% 110 NPV $6,164 $3,174 $1,474 $489 Forest - Reforestation - 4  Riparian Forest  IRR 16% NPV $15,536 $10,054 $6,539 $4,242 Forest - Assisted 5  Regeneration - Walnut  IRR 31% Forest - Assisted NPV $2,079 $2,207 $2,248 $2,239 6  Regeneration - Pistachio  IRR -4% NPV $3,230 $2,959 $2,744 $2,567 Forest - Assisted 7  Regeneration - Spruce  IRR Not calculated NPV $5,909 $4,324 $3,224 $2,440 Agricultural lands - 8  Watering improvement  IRR 49% NPV $5,164 $3,447 $2,264 $1,428 Agricultural lands - No 9  tillage  IRR 23% NPV $1,454 $2,398 $2,846 $3,007 Agricultural lands - 10  Crop Rotation IRR 2% Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 42 Land type - # Discount rate 5% 8% 11% 14% activity - model NPV $2,462 $1,600 $998 $567 Agricultural lands - 11 Agroforestry  IRR 20% NPV $1,705 $923 $437 $129 12 Pasture - Grazing ban  IRR 16% NPV $2,158 $1,268 $711 $355 Pasture - Remote 13  pasture access  IRR 19% NPV $2,157 $1,256 $690 $327 Pasture - Rotational 14  measures IRR 19% NPV $925,078 $727,581 $589,082 $489,049 Protective lands - 15  Green IRR Not calculated NPV $923,992 $726,255 $587,604 $487,476 16  Protective lands - Grey  IRR Not calculated Source: original elaboration for this publication Table 43: Sensitivity analysis to cost increase in forestry models 111 # Model   No change 10% 20% 1 Afforestation - Walnut NPV $13,680 $13,445 $13,210 IRR 31% 29% 28% 2 Afforestation - Pistachio NPV $700 $398 $163 IRR 11% 10% 9% 3 Afforestation - Spruce NPV $1,821 $2,056 $2,291 IRR -9% -9% -10% 4 Reforestation - Riparian Forest NPV $3,174 $3,017 $2,859 IRR 16% 16% 15% 5 Assisted Regeneration - Walnut NPV $10,054 $9,964 $9,874 IRR 31% 30% 29% 6 Assisted Regeneration - Pistachio NPV 2,207 $2,516 $2,687 IRR -4% -5% -6% 7 Assisted Regeneration - Spruce NPV $2,959 $3,268 $3,577 Cannot be Cannot be Cannot be IRR determined determined determined Source: original elaboration for this publication CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 44: Discount rate sensitivity analysis in agricultural lands # Land type - Activity - model Discount rate 5% 8% 11% 14% 1 Agricultural lands - Watering improvement  NPV $5,890 $4,309 $3,212 $2,430 IRR 49% 2 Agricultural lands - No tillage  NPV $5,164 $3,447 $2,264 $1,428 IRR 23% 3 Agricultural lands - Crop Rotation NPV $1,448 $2,393 $2,842 $3,004 IRR 2% 4 Agricultural lands - Agroforestry NPV $2,568 $1,684 $1,066 $623 IRR 21% Source: original elaboration for this publication Table 45: Sensitivity analysis to cost increase in agricultural lands models # Model   No change 10% 20% 1 Agricultural lands - Watering improvement NPV $4,324 $3,904 $3,627   IRR 49% 41% 36% 112 2 Agricultural lands - No tillage NPV $3,447 $3,006 $2,565   IRR 23% 20% 18% 3 Agricultural lands - Crop Rotation NPV $2,39183 $2,920 $3,442   IRR 2% 1% 0% 4 Agricultural lands - Agroforestry NPV $1,600 $1,327 $1,053   IRR 20% 17% 15% Source: original elaboration for this publication Table 46: Discount rate sensitivity analysis in pasture models Land type - Activity - model Discount rate 5% 8% 11% 14% Pasture - Grazing ban NPV $1,705 $923 $437 $129   IRR 16% Pasture - Remote pasture access NPV $2,158 $1,268 $711 $355   IRR 19% Pasture - Rotational measures NPV $2,157 $1,256 $690 $327   IRR 19% Source: original elaboration for this publication Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 47: Sensitivity analysis to cost increase in pasture models Model   No change 10% 20% Pasture - Grazing ban NPV $923 $787 $650   IRR 16% 14% 13% Pasture - Remote pasture access NPV $1,268 $1,142 $1,016   IRR 19% 18% 16% Pasture - Rotational measures NPV $1,256 $1,137 $1,019   IRR 19% 17% 16% Source: original elaboration for this publication Table 48: Discount rate sensitivity analysis in protected land models Land type - Activity - model Discount rate 5% 8% 11% 14% Protective lands - Green NPV $925,078 $727,581 $589,082 $489,049 Cannot be   IRR determined Protective lands - Grey NPV $923,992 $726,255 $587,604 $487,476 Cannot be 113   IRR determined Source: original elaboration for this publication Table 49: Sensitivity analysis to cost increase in protected land models Model   No change 10% 20% Protective lands - Green NPV $727,581 $726,703 $725,826 Cannot be Cannot be Cannot be   IRR determined determined determined Protective lands - Grey NPV $726,255 $725,244 $724,234 Cannot be Cannot be Cannot be   IRR determined determined determined Source: original elaboration for this publication CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Annex 10. Assumptions for the carbon sequestration models Table 50: Afforestation / reforestation with pistachio, walnut, and almond Aspect Assumption in model Plantation of tree seedlings on land where there were no trees before (afforestation) and where there used to be trees (reforestation). It can also Description include fencing and other grazing protection, as well as irrigation where needed. Baseline scenario: Initial land use Degraded land (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  type Land use after intervention Planted temperate mountain systems (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  Implementation phase / capitalization 3 / 17 years 114 phase (years) GHG emission balance (tCO2e/ha/yr) -18.3 Source: original elaboration for this publication Table 51: Afforestation / reforestation with spruce and juniper Aspect Assumption in model Plantation of tree seedlings on land where there were no trees before (afforestation) and where there used to be trees (reforestation). It can also Description include fencing and other grazing protection, as well as irrigation where needed. Spruce and juniper forests are predominant in higher altitudes, why boreal dry climate is assumed. Baseline scenario: Initial land use Degraded land (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  type Land use after intervention Planted boreal mountain systems (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  Implementation phase / capitalization 3 / 17 years phase (years) GHG emission balance (tCO2e/ha/yr) -9.2 Source: original elaboration for this publication Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 52: Afforestation / reforestation in riparian forests Aspect Assumption in model Plantation of tree seedlings and cuttings along mountain rivers. Species that are adapted to riparian areas like poplar and willow will be used. Poplar sequesters more carbon than other tree species, so the forest type Description “Temperate mountain systems” is used (without “planted”), to correspond for slightly higher GHG sequestration. The measure can also include irrigation where necessary, fencing and pest management. Baseline scenario: Initial land use Degraded land (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  type Land use after intervention Temperate mountain systems (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  Implementation phase / 3 / 17 years capitalization phase (years) GHG emission balance (tCO2e/ha/yr) -18.6 Source: original elaboration for this publication Table 53: Assisted natural regeneration in pistachio, walnut, and almond forests Aspect Assumption in model 115 Assisted natural regeneration involves various activities that aim at supporting the growth of young trees and bushes in existing forests, like enrichment planting, sowing, watering, or grass removal. This model is a restoration approach for degraded forests. There are various degrees of forest degradation within the country although Description there is no official data available. Based on expert estimates, an average degradation level of 50% is assumed, like forests of neighboring country Tajikistan. Over the modelling period of 20 years, a decrease of degradation level by 30% is assumed. Baseline scenario: Initial land use Temperate mountain systems (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  type Degradation level in baseline 50% scenario Degradation level after intervention 20% Implementation phase / 3 / 17 years capitalization phase (years) GHG emission balance (tCO2e/ha/yr) -5.7 Source: original elaboration for this publication CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 54: Assisted natural regeneration in spruce and juniper forests Aspect Assumption in model Assisted natural regeneration involves various activities that aim at supporting the growth of young trees and bushes in existing forests, like enrichment planting, sowing, watering, or grass removal. This model is a restoration approach for degraded forests. There are various degrees of forest degradation within the country although Description there is no official data available. Based on expert estimates, we assume an average degradation level of 50%, like forests of neighboring country Tajikistan. Over the modelling period of 20 years, we assume a decrease of degradation level of 30%. Spruce and juniper forests are predominant in higher altitudes, why boreal dry climate is assumed. Baseline scenario: Initial land use type Boreal mountain systems (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  Degradation level in baseline scenario 50% Degradation level after intervention 20% Implementation phase / capitalization 3 / 17 years phase (years) GHG emission balance (tCO2e/ha/yr) -1.1 116 Source: original elaboration for this publication Table 55: Agriculture – efficient use of water resources Aspect Assumption in model Irrigation is not commonly applied in the Kyrgyz Republic. A range of water management practices can help in using water more efficiently than most farmers conventionally do. This involves technical interventions like short furrow irrigation or drip irrigation as well as non-technical measures like water measuring and leaving crop residues. To maintain soil moisture, less tillage will be used. Due to the manifold measures in this scenario, the model has been made for 100 hectares to allow for estimates on the share of individual measures: Water use efficiency on cropland: 80% Description Recovering of non or badly used soils for agriculture: 10% Fruit production on dry land with irrigation: 10% The 100-ha model allows also for differentiation of irrigation techniques. We assume the following: Surface with IRRS: 80% Trickle: 20% Fertilizer use will not change in this scenario. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 55 Aspect Assumption in model Annual cropland – Full tillage, medium C input, residues exported (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  Baseline scenario: Initial land use type Degraded land (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  Degraded land (as per IPCC 2006/2019) Annual cropland – Reduced tillage, medium C input, residues retained (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  Annual cropland – Default crop, reduced tillage, medium C input, residues Land use after intervention retained (as per IPCC 2006/2019) Orchard – Agroforestry system: Orchard, reduced tillage, medium C input, no residue burning (as per IPCC 2006/2019) Implementation phase / capitalization 1 / 19 years phase (years) GHG emission balance (tCO2e/ha/yr) -0.7 Source: original elaboration for this publication Table 56: Agriculture – no tillage / minimum tillage Aspect Assumption in model No/minimum tillage crop cultivation means direct sowing without ploughing and harrowing the soil. With direct sowing the soil is less disturbed than 117 with ploughing and a permanent plant cover is maintained. Direct sowing is possible on irrigated and rain-fed land, and installation of an irrigation system is assumed (although irrigation systems does not cause any Description difference in the carbon balance). Green manure as part of residues should be retained to maintain permanent soil cover. An estimate of 15% fertilizer reduction is applied, from initially 138 kg/ha to 117 kg/ha. The amount of pesticide used in the first years is assumed to make no notable change in terms of carbon emissions over the whole project period. Annual cropland – Full tillage, medium C input, residues exported (as per Baseline scenario: Initial land use type IPCC 2006/2019)  Annual cropland – No tillage, medium C input, residues retained (as per Land use after intervention IPCC 2006/2019)  Implementation phase / capitalization 1 / 19 years phase (years) GHG emission balance (tCO2e/ha/yr) -0.3 Source: original elaboration for this publication CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Table 57: Agriculture – introduction of crop rotation and cover crops Aspect Assumption in model Cover crops (green manure) are planted to cover the soil rather than to be harvested. Mostly they are ploughed under after some time and act as green manure or better mulched or even better used as cover crop in Description direct seeding / no tillage systems. The use of cover crops will increase carbon input. Neither fertilizer use nor irrigation will significantly change in this scenario. Annual cropland – Full tillage, medium C input, residues exported (as per Baseline scenario: Initial land use type IPCC 2006/2019)  Annual cropland – Reduced tillage, high C input (no manure), residues Land use after intervention retained (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  Implementation phase / capitalization 1 / 19 years phase (years) GHG emission balance (tCO2e/ha/yr) -0.1 Source: original elaboration for this publication Table 58: Agroforestry – walnut / fruit 118 Aspect Assumption in model Agroforestry models combine annual with perennial crops. In this model, walnut and fruit trees are planted in the agroforestry type “orchard.” The plots will be set up on former grasslands. Due to the high soil carbon stocks, transforming grasslands into other land uses results in carbon emissions rather than sequestration. The overall emission balance would Description be positive. We use the sequestration of (tree) biomass without counting in effects on SOC because we assume that SOC stock stays stable in both baseline and project scenario. Instead of chemical fertilizers, some manure will be applied. Tillage will be reduced, and drip irrigation installed. Baseline scenario: Initial land use type Grassland (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  Agroforestry: Orchard – Reduced tillage, medium C input, no residue Land use after intervention burning (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  Implementation phase / capitalization 3 / 17 years phase (years) GHG emission balance (tCO2e/ha/yr) -1 (without SOC) Source: original elaboration for this publication Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table 59: Agroforestry – poplar Aspect Assumption in model In this model, poplar trees are planted in the agroforestry type “Short Rotation Coppice.” The trees will be harvested in the year 20 for timber and firewood usage. The plots will be set up on former grasslands. Due to the high soil carbon stocks, transforming grasslands into other land uses results in carbon Description emissions rather than sequestration. The overall emission balance for this model would still be negative, but we use the sequestration of (tree) biomass without counting in effects on SOC because we assume that SOC stock stays stable in both baseline and project scenario. Instead of chemical fertilizers, some manure will be applied. Tillage will be reduced, and drip irrigation installed. Baseline scenario: Initial land use type Grassland (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  Agroforestry: Short rotation coppice – Reduced tillage, medium C input, Land use after intervention no residue burning (as per IPCC 2006/2019)  Implementation phase / capitalization 3 / 17 years phase (years) GHG emission balance (tCO2e/ha/yr) -2.4 (without SOC) Source: original elaboration for this publication 119 CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Annex 11. Readiness assessment Political leadership supporting organizations like UNECE. This did not encourage the Agency to actively coordinate The State Forest Service is the national focal restoration efforts. point for the Bonn challenge and all processes Today, there is no political leadership on FLR in the related to FLR. SFS prepared the country’s FLR country and the number of decision makers aware pledge in 2018 and participated at the Astana of the pledge of the Kyrgyz Republic is limited to roundtable. The areas of forest and pasture a few managers at SFS. The recent restructuring proposed for restoration were compiled from of the government, with the Pasture Department existing government reforestation / afforestation and SFS being now both included in the Ministry programs and from projects of international of Agriculture, opens new avenues for close cooperation organizations or development banks cooperation. funding restoration activities. These government and international cooperation programs had their own timeline and allocated resources, which were Policy and legal framework already secured at the time when the pledge was 120 Enabling policy environment prepared. After the Astana roundtable, no specific roadmap As outlined in the inception report, several national for fulfilling the pledge was developed, nor was and sector strategies set out objectives and a specific mechanism set up to monitor the activities that are in line with FLR priorities. In the implementation of the pledge by different partners. forest sector, the main policy document is the At the political level, there was no follow-up meeting Concept of Forest Sector Development 2040 which with other key national partners, particularly with aims at the sustainable management of forests to the Pasture Department responsible for restoring ensure the economic well-being of the population, 150,000 hectares of pasture. This lack of initial social prosperity, and environmental sustainability. coordination limited the emergence of a political In the pasture and agricultural sectors, the recently process around forest landscape restoration in the updated NDC is the new main policy document country. guiding the development strategies of these Since 2018, there has been a high turnover of sectors. A more detailed Strategy on Agricultural directors of the State Forest Service. Some of Development of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2021- the new managers had limited knowledge about 2025 is under development. FLR and the Bonn challenge, which prevented a There is therefore a solid policy framework based continuous political dialogue on land degradation on which FLR measures can be promoted and and restoration. implemented in all relevant sectors. Nevertheless, Managers at SFS also mentioned that since 2018, national partners underlined the poor integration there has been no reporting requirement set by of these national strategies and the lack of clear the Bonn challenge secretariat, not by regional policy for coordinating international processes initiatives related to it (e.g., ECCA 30) or by involving several governmental organizations. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Legal framework specifies that government institutions should not intervene in the activities of PC, including on the From a legal point of view, the sustainable use of way they allocate their annual budget. According natural resources and the restoration of degraded to representatives of the Ministry of Agriculture, lands is under the responsibility of different stakeholders, acting at different scales. the result is that pasture committees spend their financial resources on activities that are not the Forest lands: SAF is responsible for sustainable most needed to restore pasture resources. forest management, for increasing forest cover and for ensuring forest regeneration. It is also in charge Agricultural lands: The law on the conservation of of monitoring and controlling the use of forest and soil fertility in agricultural lands from 2012 regulates pasture resources within the State Forest Fund, land use and management practices with impact and of limiting soil erosion (Forest code, 2013). on fertility, soil conservation and other negative National partners pointed that the Agency has the impacts. It introduces legal, organizational, and required legal means to implement its functions, financial measures aimed at preventing soil including measures related to forest landscape degradation in the country. restoration. They however outlined several National and regional partners mentioned several legal loopholes (e.g., unclear legal provisions legal issues connected to financing restoration about pasture management in the SFF), which measures. They are developed in the next sub- sometimes prevent an efficient implementation of section. restoration efforts. Another important aspect to take into consideration is that an important part of the Kyrgyz Republic’s forests (walnut, almond, and Financing instruments pistachio forests) is leased on a long-term basis to Forest lands: 90 million KGS are allocated annually private tenants, to members of local communities. to reforestation and afforestation activities. This 121 These tenants endorse the formal responsibility budget allows the plantation of 1,100 hectares to sustainably use forest resources on their plot per year. However, since 2017 the forest sector and ensure their regeneration. There are legal has not received more than 50% of this planned provisions through which forest management units budget. The first reason was the introduction of can terminate a lease agreement in case there are a new budget code in 2017 which, due to some signs of degradation resulting from unsustainable gaps in disbursement procedures, prevented a management. However, such decision is difficult full allocation of the state budget. In 2020, the to enforce due to the sensitive socioeconomic COVID-19 pandemic drastically reduced the state context in rural areas. This jeopardizes the ability budget and only 20% of the expected funds were of SFS to effectively control forest degradation allocated to forest plantations. In the meantime, and efficiently implement in areas that are leased SFS reported in the same years 2,500 to 3,000 out. hectares of annual, thereby exceeding by up to Pasture lands: Since the 2009, the law “on 300% the initial plan. This, according to SFS, was pastures” has decentralized functions and possible thanks to the additional funding received responsibilities for pasture management, use, from international cooperation projects financed improvement, and monitoring to pasture committees by the World Bank, FAO and GIZ. The forest at municipality level. Pasture committees are under plantations planned within these projects were the general steering of the Pasture Department of included in the country’s pledge. These projects the Ministry of Agriculture which defines pasture are either closed (FAO), or going to close (World management policies for the country. However, the Bank, GIZ) in 2022-2023. Two new projects with PD has limited legal possibilities to influence the objectives to restore large areas of pasture and work of pasture committees: the law “on pasture” forest lands are expected to start in the coming CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic years, financed by GCF-FAO ($50 million including not cover all the needs. For example, a typical $30 million grant money) and IFAD ($9 million). For pasture committee of Naryn province interviewed example, the latter project sets out an objective during the assessment reported an annual – and $4 million – for restoring upstream forests, budget of $5,900. After deducting administrative which is of high relevance for the Naryn River costs, only $1,200 is available for infrastructure Basin. improvement. This is a real limitation towards the SFS representatives indicated that forest implementation of restoration measures. One of management units have a certain flexibility in the interviewed pasture committees stressed that reallocating part of their financial resources to the lack of financial resources prevents building restoration measures, if this is included in their key infrastructures which are a prerequisite to program-based budget which is developed one pasture restoration, e.g., a bridge to destock year ahead. Interviews with forest management livestock from degraded pasture, or a water point units do not confirm this statement, but rather that on a remote pasture where no water is available their proposals for budget reallocation are usually otherwise. not approved. Meanwhile, pastures lands have been the focus Beyond the general lack of funding from the of several investment projects in the last years, state budget, SFS representatives underlined the financed by the World Bank and IFAD. Selected seasonal character of forest restoration measures, pasture committees received machinery (e.g., implying a timely transfer from the state budget loaders, graders), equipment, fencing material to forest management units. Recurrent delays etc. This had a visible impact on the ground prevent an efficient implementation of these with improved access infrastructure and the measures. enforcement of seasonal grazing bans through 122 large-scale fencing. For example, one of the Private investments are also increasing, often interviewed pasture committees fenced 7 building on approaches and models piloted in the kilometers thanks to IFAD financing, thereby frame of international cooperation projects. Cost- efficient forest plantation and restoration models excluding summer grazing, and enabling the are now being upscaled by small-scale tenants restoration of 40,000 hectares in summer. (1-5 ha), in walnut, pistachio, and almond forests. Pastures located in the SFF (34% of the country’s Larger-scale investments in high-productivity total pasture area, or 3 million ha) are managed fruit orchards (up to 30 ha) have gained greater by the State Forest Service. However, pasture attention, specifically in low-productive lands management not being a formal responsibility where irrigation is available. of SFS, this land is not actively managed but Pasture lands: At the national level, the Pasture rather seen as a source of income. Would a forest Department does not have a budget for pasture management unit want to improve infrastructure restoration since pasture management and use to access pasture, the budget framework does not has been delegated to pasture committees. allow for budgeting such expenses, which needs to be included in other forest-related budget Along with these responsibilities, PC must collect lines, for example improvement of firefighting use fees among their members. This fee, set by infrastructure. the municipal authorities within the limits set by law, is low, e.g., §$1 per sheep head for a Agriculture lands: Credits for agriculture grazing period of 5-6 months. The accumulated machinery, inputs (fertilizers, pesticides, seeds) budget is meant to cover administrative costs are available from commercial banks. There are (salary, transport costs) and activities aimed at also specific credit programs subsidized by the improving pasture conditions. This budget does government. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Technical feasibility of restoration reached. For example, in Naryn province, a PC and measures the local FMU agreed on a specific period (June- November) during which livestock should not Forest lands: Forest management units show enter a specific valley. Both stakeholders pooled diverse technical capacities, in relation to the their resources to have people permanently on equipment they own and have access to through the ground controlling the full enforcement of this leasing. Most equipment left from the soviet period agreement. is not functional anymore and FMUs nowadays primarily depend on investments to procure Regardless the availability of external resources, machinery, such as cars, tractors etc. which local interview partners underlined that they need in their daily activities. In this respect, restoration measures can only be successful FMUs, having received support in the past years where their implementation follows a systemic from FAO and World Bank possess most of the approach, underpinned by strong local political machinery they need to implement the prioritized decisions and a clear agreement with users. An restoration measures. FMUs which did not benefit example of this is the agreement reached in a from these projects can procure services from village of Naryn province about the introduction of a grazing ban in a specific area during summer private companies for, for instance, infrastructure months. Shepherds agreed to this only after they construction. However, this mechanism is not as were promised better access (improved bridge) versatile as owning its own machines. and living conditions (shepherds’ huts) on remote Pasture lands: The situation with pasture pasture. This agreement was formalized in a local committees is like that of FMUs, with even more decree and is being successfully enforced. significant differences between PCs which Agriculture lands: Among the prioritized received project support (from IFAD and World 123 measures in the agriculture sector, the effective Bank) and those which did not. Nevertheless, use of water resources and crop rotation/ pasture committees are under political pressure cover crops are known practices which do not from their members and the local authorities, bring about technical difficulties. Their further and they manage to mobilize technical means to dissemination primarily relies on financial implement – at least basic – measures. For example, resources available (e.g., water-saving irrigation some pasture committees rent machinery from the systems) and on improved knowledge among land local or district administration. Others design low- users (e.g., cover crops). No- and limited tillage cost activities and outsource their implementation is the measure which has the biggest technical to private contractors (some examples observed limitations in the country. Currently, there are in the field are building check dams on temporary only three no-tillage seeders in the country, none rivers to improve water retention). This type of in the Naryn and Toktogul provinces. They were low-cost measure typically needs to be repeated procured as part of cropping experiments and every year. are not available for lease. The implementation of Synergies between forestry and pasture no-tillage agriculture thus relies on the import of sectors: During field visits, several examples of additional machinery in the country. large-scale restoration measures showed clear linkages between the ability of PCs and FMUs Knowledge and skills to coordinate their efforts and mutualize their National level technical resources, and the success of their restoration efforts. This observation also applies to The level of knowledge of national level partners non-infrastructure activities which are technically about the concept of FLR can be improved easier to implement if a local agreement is across all sectors. As already described, this is CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic due to a lack of coordination between relevant Local level ministries and a lack of political leadership of Forest lands: Local foresters possess basic SAF on the topic. Nevertheless, experts of the knowledge about the establishment of forest Ministry of Agriculture (Pasture Department plantations and have the required capacities to and Plant Production Department) have perform their day-to-day activities. However, like good knowledge of modern soil and pasture at the national level, most knowledge is outdated. restoration practices. Numerous trainings and It results in the production of low-quality planting exchanges with other countries have increased material, in an average low survival rate of forest the general understanding of ministry staff about plantations and on a lack of attention to more urgent soil management, efficient use of agricultural issues like forest regeneration. This situation inputs etc. Nevertheless, specific skills are is difficult to revert to as there is no dedicated missing, for example how to implement a modern training center in the forest sector which could be pasture monitoring system leading to clear used as an entry point to introduce modern forest recommendations for sustainable management. management practices. This is exacerbated by Such skills are available among NGOs and the high turnover of foresters at the local level international organizations but are not yet being which makes knowledge management even more applied by government institutions. difficult. Academic courses on forestry are offered The situation in the forest sector is different and at the Kyrgyz National Agrarian University but due most of the activities planned at central level are to low wage levels, most graduates do not work in still guided by concepts and practices dating the sector. Many local foresters – particularly the young generation – learn on the job and have no back to the Soviet period. A strong focus is forestry degree. given to afforestation, although new plantations 124 (especially spruce plantations in the Naryn River In terms of knowledge related to degradation, Basin) offer limited economic and social benefits. the attention of local foresters is directed to At the same time, little attention is given to the eroded areas, and to areas where there are sustainable management and regeneration of signs of illegal cuttings. To a lesser extent, poor existing forests, while several studies highlight a forest regeneration is also regarded as a sign of low regeneration rate and over-aging of existing degradation. Knowledge of unsustainable forest stands caused by unproper management and structure (e.g., overaged forest) is missing. In overuse. The numerous projects and exchanges terms of response to degradation, foresters are implemented in the sector over the years did limited to outdated technologies which have not lead to any notable change in this regard. It proven to be inefficient in the new land use setting can be partly attributed to the fact that there is that followed the end of the Soviet Union. During no clear definition of forest degradation in the field work, unrealistic restoration planning was country which limits the awareness of ministry- also observed in one of the visited FMU, where level experts about this phenomenon. There are foresters plan to strengthen an eroded riverbank ongoing discussions within SFS about defining of the Naryn river through standard tree planting. clear criteria for forest degradation and this will Given the hydraulic characteristics of the Naryn hopefully trigger changes in the responses given river, this obviously cannot lead to any result. This to degradation in the future. UNECE (United situation again reveals the low level of knowledge Nations Economic Commission for Europe) has about restoration measures. also started training central Asian policy makers Several FMUs were trained in pasture monitoring on sustainable forest management indicators, and in assessing pasture health using the Grazing which is particularly relevant to promote the Response Index. However, it needs continuous implementation of restoration measures. training and resources, as well as several years of Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS field implementation before this knowledge can be Socio-cultural aspects anchored at FMU level. During the interviews, several questions were Pasture lands: For pasture committees, the most meant to clarify whether certain socio-cultural evident sign of degradation is an increase of bare patterns can be either an enabling, or a limiting soil and associated soil erosion. Experienced factor for the large-scale implementation of pasture committee leaders and pasture users restoration measures in the country. can also assess degradation based on shifts in Forest lands: Regarding forest restoration, it was vegetation patterns. found that there is a continued conflict between An important observation from field work is the forest management units and pasture users frequent reference to climate change as a key related to illegal grazing in forest plantations factor of pasture degradation. Pasture committees which sharply reduces their survival rate. Even often refer to a decrease of precipitations in the in cases where plantations are fenced there are lowlands, impacting close-to-village pastures. reported cases of pasture users damaging the The past years have indeed been characterized fence to let their livestock in. This type of local by summer droughts with 2021 being the worst conflict can be a serious limitation to successful of all. forest restoration. District-level pasture management bodies and Most Kyrgyz forests are overgrown. Their pasture committees start to openly talk about the regeneration implies specific sylvicultural need to shift from livestock quantity to quality. It is operations, including sanitary cuts and thinning. a new tendency showing a change in their mindset While thinning is prohibited by law for high- which can be attributed to a mix of their own field value tree species (walnut, juniper), sanitary observations (livestock productivity decreases in cuttings are still possible. However, social media 125 degraded areas) and awareness raising by NGOs influencers and environmental activists have in the and international organizations. past years publicly accused forest management units of illegal wood harvesting. One of the forest In terms of restoration measures, pasture enterprises interviewed acknowledged that since committees have good knowledge about the these publications, they have halted even sanitary positive impact of seasonal or pluri-annual grazing cuts to avoid being the target of any further bans. They understand that having enough fodder accusation. in winter is critical which implies increasing the productivity of haymaking fields by banning Pasture lands: As indicated in above, pasture livestock from close-to-village pastures in late- committees can allocate their budget in a flexible spring and early-autumn. Likewise, improving manner, in line with the pasture management plan pasture infrastructure is one of the most cited developed with pasture users. It means that the restoration measures by PCs which shows good decision of financing one or the other measure knowledge about the necessity to distribute the is partly driven by the pressure put by pasture stocking rate between close-to-village and remote users on the head of the committee. The Pasture pastures. Rotational grazing is less known, and PCs Department stressed that in some cases, financial and pasture users are not familiar with the indicators resources were allocated to activities that were and thresholds to determine the timing and proper politically important at the local level, but had implementation of this mechanism. In general, the limited impact on pasture restoration (e.g., improving road infrastructure within a settlement, knowledge of pasture committee representatives instead of access roads to summer pastures). regarding degradation and restoration seems sufficient. This is however jeopardized by the high On the positive side, several pasture committees turnover of pasture committee leasers. see a tendency towards shepherds returning to CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic remote winter farms which were partly abandoned no-tillage, require purchasing new equipment at the end of the Soviet Union. Where this is which is currently not available for lease in the not practiced yet, PC encourages shepherds to country. The associated costs are too high for an resettle in these farms to destock close-to-village average farmer but given the country’s experience pastures. with collectivization, farmers are not ready to pool Agriculture lands: Some of the prioritized their resources and invest collectively in this kind restoration practices in agriculture, for example of equipment. 126 Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Annex 12. Climate financing tracking Financial support tracking under the former also held annually. Such monitoring is typically SAEPF backed up with analyses of annual audit reports of projects of international cooperation organizations The functions of the former SAEPF (State Agency or development banks (World Bank 2014). for Environmental Protection and Forestry) are now split between SFS and the Ministry of Natural In 2014 the World Bank conducted a Public Resources, Ecology and Technical Supervision. Expenditure Review which identified the following SAEPF was regularly collecting information on challenges in public investment management: forest and biodiversity development projects from ി Project monitoring is concerned with financial development partners and project implementation monitoring and is passive. Except for projects units under SAEPF (e.g., World Bank PIU (Project of international cooperation organizations Implementation Units) on Integrated Forest or development banks, monitoring of non- Ecosystem Management Project). There was also financial dimensions of project progress is not a Monitoring Commission under SAPEF which happening, except on an ad hoc basis. conducted annual meetings with project staff to review project implementation. Data on climate ി The financial monitoring system is not capable 127 finance flows of environment-oriented projects of tracking changes in i) the disbursement implemented by non-government organizations profile of a project; ii) total estimated project are currently not collected, and there are political costs; and iii) estimated completion date sensitivities about government agencies requesting compared to plan. such information from civil society organizations. ി Performance monitoring implementation which SAEPF had access to detailed information on involves tracking the achievement of the public budget financial flows to forest and project purpose, i.e., the flow of benefits to the biodiversity sectors since these areas are within target groups through improved public service the SAEPF structure. The public budget financial delivery (volume, quality, and accessibility flows were channeled to Leskhozes and protected of services) resulting from realization of areas through SAEPF central level economic the project, is mixed with ordinary project management department. monitoring. ി Good indicators and a baseline are required Financial support tracking under the in project design for monitoring and tracking Ministry of Finance progress and later ex post evaluation. The Ministry of Finance collects financial and non- There is no ex post systematic evaluation of financial performance of ODA projects monthly completed projects to determine whether using a specific form reported by implementing they represent an efficient and effective use agencies (typically Project Implementation Units). of public resources, either by government, These reports are backed up with quarterly international cooperation organizations or meetings between the Ministry of Finance and development banks. This evaluation should project representatives. In-depth meetings are become increasingly important as the country CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic moves towards performance-based public financial volumes, regional distribution) on its management and budgeting. website. In addition, NSC (National Steering Committee) reports on implementation of SDG/ As for public budget flows, there are codes SEEA initiatives which include inter alia financial (7054, 70422) which track expenditures related support. to biodiversity and forestry in the public budget classification approved by the Decree of Ministry Besides, civil society organizations (CSO), of Finance #161-П Dated December 21, 2017.21F 33 including those carrying out activities in There are currently no budget codes for adaptation environmental protection, report regularly to NSC. or mitigation. However, the level of data aggregation provides information on revenues and use of funds of Financial support tracking under the Ministry CSOs. According to the annual report of NSC of Economy and Commerce Enterprise Finances of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2012-201622F34, the total revenue is 8.02 billion According to the recent Government Decree KGS, while the total expenditure is 7.07 billion KGS #389 Dated on 19.06.2017, Ministry of Economy for 201623F35. The figure for the total number of and Commerce tracks external technical and CSOs is 19.1 thousand registered non-commercial grant support. The ministry requests the organizations, only 30% of them have reported. 36 general information (incl., project title, name of CSOs out of 19.1 thousand registered organizations international donor, project scope, objectives and represent the environmental sector. So, it is not tasks, period, project components and activities, feasible to identify the number of financial flows budget and co-financing, beneficiaries, and results of CSOs in biodiversity and forest development with indicators) about the project when it comes areas. However, the small number of environment- for registration from public implementing agencies 128 oriented SCOs would suggest that they are which receive support. SAEPF therefore had all the not likely to contribute significantly to the total information provided to the Ministry of Economy amount of climate-related finance. Given political and Commerce about technical and grant support sensitivities about requesting information from projects implemented by SAEPF. Within the project CSOs, it is not a major omission if this source of implementation, public implementing agencies funds is not currently tracked in the MRV system. provide information on progress of project activities, their results, analysis, and obstacles Financial support tracking under the related to project implementation and proposals National Bank for efficient project implementation to the Ministry National bank supervises financial institutions in the of Economy and Commerce on a quarterly basis. Kyrgyz Republic and regularly collects information After project completion, the implementing about financial operations. It may be possible agency informs about activities, achieved results, to track climate finance flows to forestry and conclusions, and recommendations. biodiversity sectors channeled through financial institutions (commercial banks, microfinance Financial support tracking under the National organizations, and credit unions). However, review Statistical Committee of NBKR’s statistics on its website shows that NBKR The National Statistical Committee quarterly does not specify climate related loans issued by collects information on FDI directly from enterprises financial institutions, and its sectoral breakdown is and publishes the aggregated information (e.g., not specific for forestry and biodiversity. The total 33 This budget classification can be revised and approved at the level of the Ministry of Finance. http://minfin.kg/ru/novosti/byudzhet/byudzhetnaya-klassifikatsiya.html 34 http://www.stat.kg/media/publicationarchive/9fafb93b-d123-461f-a5b8-668576a1a53d.pdf 35 Figures for 2017 Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS amount of the bank loans for 2016 and 2017 are on NBKR’s web-site information is broken down by 96.0 and 106.0 billion KGS, respectively. Currently, sectoral areas presented in the Figure 48 below. Figure 48: Loans issued by commercial banks in the Kyrgyz Republic, 2016-2017 40,0 38,5 in billions of KGS 35,0 2016 2017 32,0 30,0 24,7 25,0 20,0 19,2 15,0 14,4 11,8 10,0 9,1 8,1 9,1 7,5 5,3 5,9 5,0 3,6 3,0 2,8 2,9 1,2 1,7 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,7 0 Industry Agriculture Transport Communication Trade Construction Mortgage Consumer Loans Cocial Services & Processing Others Procurement Source: NBKR, 201724F36 A similar situation exists with data disaggregation of financial flows of microfinance organizations and credit unions, i.e., the data is available at similar sectoral breakdown (Figure 49). The total amount of their 129 issued loans is 22.1 and 27.4 billion KGS for 2016 and 2017, accordingly. Figure 49: Loans issued by microfinance organizations and credit unions in the Kyrgyz Republic, 2016-2017 10,0 in billions of KGS 9,0 9,0 2016 2017 8,0 7,0 6,4 6,0 6,0 5,4 5,0 4,0 3,1 3,2 3,0 3,0 3,0 2,4 2,3 1,9 2,0 1,6 1,0 0,7 0,5 0,2 0,3 0,1 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Industry Agriculture Transport Communication Trade and Commerce Consumer Loans Loans to Financial Other Procurement & Processing & Mortgage Services Institutions Construction Source: NBKR, 2017.25F37 36 http://www.nbkr.kg/index1.jsp?item=1550&lang=ENG 37 http://www.nbkr.kg/index1.jsp?item=2265&lang=ENG CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic For now, such sectoral disaggregation of data Public Investment Program (PIP) projects and does not allow to extract the data on climate conducted pilot audits with local consultants’ related financial flows of financial institutions. support. A performance audit is an independent, Nevertheless, SFS and the Ministry of Natural objective, and reliable examination of whether Resources, Ecology and Technical Supervision undertakings, systems, operations, programs, could consider discussing with NBKR the possibility activities, or organizations are operating in of collecting information based on mitigation and accordance with the principles of economy, adaptation targets in biodiversity and forestry efficiency, and effectiveness, and whether there is sector in future. room for improvement. The methodology is aimed Verification of information on climate-related at the introduction of evaluation of PIP projects finance: The Ministry of Finance analyzes the with the focus on project design, implementation, implementation of the Public Investment Program and sustainability. The methodology provides while the Chamber of Accounts annually audits a qualitative approach for assessing the the efficiency of use of public budget resources, achievement of project objectives within the external credits, and loans, as well as humanitarian project implementation. This can be particularly aid received by Government. suitable to assess if the project achieves climate change-related objectives (e.g., afforestation In 2014, the World Bank stressed the importance targets). of the Chamber of Accounts to lead the evaluation of public investment projects (using risk-based In addition, the recently established Climate sampling). In 2015, the Chamber of Accounts Finance Center has been given the task of developed a performance audit methodology for conducting verification of GCF-funded projects. 130 Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Annex 13. Payment for Ecosystem Services Ecosystem services valuation and of the Czech Academy of Sciences piloted an accounting Experimental Ecosystem Accounting (EEA) exercise as part of the UN System of Environmental The term ‘valuation of ecosystem services’ is not Economic Accounting program. This study defined under the law (6th report to CBD, 2019). focused on a specific forest enterprise (Kyzyl- Previously, a range of studies assessed the Unkur) and produced various training materials economic value of ecosystem services at the level as well as an implementation guide for SEEA-EEA of several watersheds and protected areas (CAREC, in the country. Based on this project, the NSC 2016; UNDP-UNEP, 2017; GEF-FAO, 2018). These developed a statistical form to gather data from studies provide useful information on the type forest users on the types and volumes of forest and accuracy of data that is available and can be products they collect. It raised a lot of concerns used in the Kyrgyz Republic for the valuation and among communities who feared it could be used mapping of ecosystem services, as well as data to increase tax payments. The introduction of this gaps that need to be further addressed. form was therefore put on hold. In 2017, the Kyrgyz Republic joined the WAVES 131 At the national level, GIZ took in 2014 in collaboration with the National Statistical initiative of the World Bank. A recent publication Committee (NSC) and the SAEPF the first steps (2020) from this project presented the Forest to support the Kyrgyz Republic develop a System Accounts Technical Report and Data in which of Ecological Evaluation and Accounting (SEEA). provisioning, cultural and regulating ecosystem This project focused on capacity development, services of the forest fund of the Kyrgyz Republic awareness raising about SEEA among policy are valued as $156.5 million per year. A set makers, institutional support, and the compilation of recommendations and tasks ranging from of fast-track forest accounts. In 2015, the UNDP- legislative to organizational and methodological UNEP Poverty and Environment Initiative together aspects was developed to further strengthen with the Research Institute for Global Change forest accounts in the coming years. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic Annex 14. Policy Brief The policy brief has been elaborated as a standalone document, which is presented below. Policy Brief FOREST LANDSCAPE RESTORATION (FLR) OPPORTUNITIES IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC This policy brief outlines the main results of a restoration opportunities assessment (ROAM) conducted in the Kyrgyz Republic. This assessment identifies degraded forest and pasture areas, investigates the correlation between land degradation and sedimentation in Toktogul Reservoir, and offers clear proposals for feasible and effective forest landscape restoration measures in the country, with a special focus on the upstream part of the Naryn River Basin. The Kyrgyz Republic is one of the countries in Central Asia most vulnerable to climate change. Climate-related disasters combined with unsustainable land use practices already affect the 132 rural population, which depends on natural resources. Land degradation and the consecutive transport of sediments can negatively impact hydropower facilities. In the Kyrgyz Republic, Toktogul hydropower plant, fed by the Naryn river, generates up to 50% of the total electricity production in the country and plays a key role in the country’s energy security. The Naryn River Basin is also a key area to tackle land degradation in a sensitive transboundary context. METHODOLOGY Priority restoration options were identified interventions made it possible to identify priority in consultation with key national partners and areas for restoration. experts (table1). Three restoration measures were Economic costs and benefits of all restoration prioritized per land use category, as well as two measures were compiled in per-hectare models protective measures. (environmental services included), allowing to Degraded pasture and forest areas were compare the long-term economic impacts of mapped based on a mix of remote sensing and different restoration options. Carbon benefits ground truthing. A restoration opportunity map were included in the calculation with a sensitivity was generated by further subtracting areas where analysis of carbon prices. restoration is not feasible or relevant (land above Several financing options were reviewed: 3,500 m.a.s.l., slopes steeper than 30 degrees, direct investments by international cooperation and protected areas). In the Naryn River Basin, organizations and development banks, payment an assessment of the capacities and experience for ecosystem services (PES) and private of local land managers about restoration investments. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS A readiness assessment examined the for scaling FLR. It was complemented by semi- existing national and sector policies to identify structured interviews with key national and local enabling strategic documents and bottlenecks stakeholders. FINDINGS Major degradation hotspots can be observed Within the Naryn River Basin, stretches along in the western part of the country and directly the basin’s northern edge are also considered to the southeast of Issyk Kul Lake. degraded as shown in Figure 1 below. Figure A1: Map of overall land degradation 133 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Degradation Basin Opportunities Assessment No Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (1) Naryn Basin No Degradation, Major Vulnerability (2) Kokonaren Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (3) Naryn South Degradation Map accounting for Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability (4) Naryn Fast Badlands, Crop land and Water Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (5) Toklogul Date: 2021-11-30 (Updated) Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability (6) EPSG: 32243 Source: original elaboration for this publication Note: White areas contain non-forest or pastureland use classes (e.g., high mountain areas, croplands, water bodies) From these degraded areas, a total of over restoration opportunities were identified within and 1.5 million hectares at national level (8% of outside Naryn River Basin. The results are shown in the total country area) offer high restoration the map of restoration opportunities below (Figure opportunities. Pastures account for 98.7% of the 2). Based on a set of prioritization criteria defined total and forests only 1.3%. in a workshop, priority areas within the Naryn River Areas with high degradation levels and high Basin where local stakeholders have proven to CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic be active and experienced with restoration were Based on this map, restoration investments further identified. Four state forest enterprises and are recommended on 8,909 ha of forest areas, 14 pasture committees were given a high priority 39,818 ha of pastureland and 1,300 ha of for restoration in the Naryn River Basin. croplands. Figure A2: Map of restoration opportunities within and outside Naryn River Basin, constructed from the overall land degradation map with non-feasible areas subtracted 134 Kyrgyz Republic Restoration Degradation Basin Opportunities Assessment Minor Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (3) Naryn Basin Minor Degradation, Major Vulnerability (4) Kokonaren Major Degradation, Minor Vulnerability (5) Naryn South Restoration Major Degradation, Major Vulnerability (6) Naryn Fast Opportunity Map Toklogul Date: 2021-11-30 EPSG: 32243 Source: original elaboration for this publication Most prioritized restoration measures growth in mountain conditions. All measures on generate economic benefits over the 20- agricultural and pastureland generate monetary year reference period. Riverbank protection benefits, with improved irrigation and no-tillage provides the highest benefits, from avoided taking the first positions. All measures generate damage to infrastructure and settlements. high environmental and social benefits. The Forest restoration and afforestation with nut- total up-front costs to finance restoration (1st bearing trees (walnuts, pistachio) generate high year investment) in the identified areas amount and multiple direct benefits, including nuts and to over $45.36 million, including $2.28 million to hay. Similar activities in spruce forests do not administrate the investments and build capacities generate economic benefits due to slow tree of the national partners. Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Table A1: Cost-benefit analysis of prioritized restoration measures Topic Measures IRR value. % NPV Value. $ Grazing ban 16 923 Pasture management Access to remote pastures 19 1,268 Rotational grazing 19 1,256 Walnut Forest 31 13,680 Pistachio 11 633 Afforestation / reforestation Spruce forest -9 - 1,821 Riparian forest 16 3,174 Walnut forest 31 10,054 Assisted forest regeneration Pistachio forest N/A - 2,207 Spruce forest N/A - 2,959 Watering improvement 49 4,324 No tillage 23 3,447 Crop management Crop Rotation 2 2,398 Agroforestry 20 1,600 Green infrastructure N/A 727,581 Protective lands Grey infrastructure N/A 726,255 Source: Original elaboration for this publication 135 There is limited finance available from the The topic could be more actively lobbied within State budget to implement restoration the government. The coordination of restoration interventions. Investments in pasture restoration efforts between the pasture and forest sectors are more difficult to capture, as they are financed could also be enhanced. by the local budget. Land users are increasingly Local land users and managers possess interested in investing in restoration activities. This good knowledge on pasture degradation and trend concerns agriculture land, less forest land restoration. There are successful examples of (except in fast growing plantations) where the legal cooperation between local land managers to pull framework makes investments more uncertain. resources together and implement restoration Payment for Ecosystem Services does not offer a interventions in pasture and forest lands with high opportunity for financing FLR since there is scaling potential. There are fewer experiences currently no demand for reduced sedimentation connected with the restoration of degraded and no additionality (no clear correlation between agriculture land. land degradation and sedimentation). There is no institutionalized capacity building Thus, financing forest landscape restoration mechanism in the forest and pasture sectors, in the Kyrgyz Republic Requires investments and the further dissemination of knowledge on from international cooperation projects or land restoration is highly dependent on initiatives development banks. from international cooperation organizations or In terms of readiness, There is a general lack development banks. of awareness on FLR at THE political level. CONTENTS Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic RECOMMENDATIONS The following recommendations aim at enhancing restoration readiness and creating an enabling environment for FLR in the country. Table A2: Recommendations Topic Key activities ി Create awareness among government officials on FLR and on the opportunities offered by Political the Bonn Challenge and associated initiatives to leverage funding to implement restoration leadership measures at scale. ി Support inter-ministerial coordination on FLR to align national and sector strategies Policy and ി Identify avenues for coordination between national sector strategies. Develop specific legal framework actions to ensure cross-cutting topics are jointly addressed by respective ministries ി Streamline investments of development partners to the priority restoration measures and Financing areas identified during ROAM analysis instruments ി Scale-up private investments in restoration through specific finance support programs (e.g., subsidies, low-rate credits etc.) and a favorable tax environment (e.g., tax holidays) ി Upgrade equipment and machinery of local land management institutions (governmental Technical and non-governmental) 136 feasibility ി Create awareness among land managers and land users on low-cost and effective restoration measures ി Deploy systematic efforts to train land managers and users on restoration practices: • A permanent training center for the forest sector should be established • Current Pasture Department efforts regarding holding online training for sub-national branch offices should be supported through digital equipment improvement. Knowledge and skills ി Create awareness in the population on land restoration, including on measures like assisted regeneration through thinning and cuttings. ി Set-up a national FLR monitoring system to track progress in achieving the Bonn challenge pledge and steer restoration efforts. In the forest sector, this could be integrated in the Forest Information Management System under development. ി Identify the exact locations of restoration measures together with local stakeholders. ി Risk of siltation of other HPPs in the Naryn River Basin. Additional Spatiotemporal modelling for a quantitative assessment of baseline conditions and scenario studies ി analyses of different land management and climate change projections. ി Studies are required to quantify the impact of fine sediments on the turbine lifespan. Source: original elaboration for this publication Landscape Restoration Opportunities in The Naryn River Basin, The Kyrgyz Republic CONTENTS Federal Department of Economic Affairs, Education and Research EAER State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO Swiss Confederation CO-FOUNDED BY THE EUROPEAN UNION