Sept 30, 2024 Global Indicators Briefs No. 27 Supply-side regulatory drivers for energy efficiency and renewable energy Viktoriya Ereshchenko, Elena Popic* T he Brief is the rst in a two-part series that provides an overview of the demand and supply side environmental regulations in the electricity sector. is Brief focuses on supply-side regulations and investigates their role in promoting energy e ciency and renewable energy integration. Energy e ciency and renewable energy are recognized as main contributors to sustainability and resilience within electricity supply systems. Yet the importance of supply-side regulations has been studied to a lesser extent in the existing literature. is Brief aims to help ll this gap. Analysis of global data suggests that comprehensive energy e ciency mandates for utilities are associated with lower transmission and distribution losses and, thus, higher e ciency in the electricity supply system. Additionally, the analysis reveals a positive and signi cant association between robust regulations on electricity network connection and use, and the share of renewable energy in electricity capacity. ese results underscore the importance of policies promoting energy e ciency programs and establishing robust regulatory frameworks governing network connection and use. e second Brief in this two-part series will cover demand-side policy measures on environmental sustainability and will also present new httpB-READY s:/ www.worldbank.org/en/businessreadydata on the environmentally sustainable use of energy. The relevance of environmental regulations for growing economy that uses electricity as inputs for production, sustainable provision of electricity it becomes imperative for countries to control environmental damage while ensuring adequate supply of electricity (Zhang et Environmental regulations have emerged as pivotal al., 2016). components of sustainable development strategies, aiming to curb pollution and conserve natural resources. Environmental Environmentally sustainable practices, including improvements regulations and practices, including taxation, are associated with in generation e ciency, emissions control from reducing environmental footprint (Ahmed et al., 2022; Wang et fossil-fuel-based power generation, and fuel switching can al., 2023), reducing emissions, and promoting technological provide solutions on the supply side related to electricity e ciency (Pei et al., 2019). In the infrastructure sector, generation (Zhang et al., 2016). e measures focused on environmentally sustainable supply and use of electricity have transmission and distribution, such as improving the e ciency been integral parts of the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for of electricity transmission lines, and the rollout of smart-grid Sustainable Development, seeking to increase the share of and utility programs on consumer pricing practices can also renewable energy globally and to decrease global energy provide solutions on the supply-side. intensity – a measure of energy consumption per unit of GDP (United Nations, 2015). According to the International Energy Importance of utility regulations and programs Agency, renewable electricity capacity additions in 2023 were on energy efficiency 50 percent higher than in 2022. Also, during the COP28 climate change conference, over 130 national governments Energy e ciency and renewable energy are key drivers in agreed to collaborate toward tripling the global installed advancing climate commitments while improving energy renewable energy capacity by 2030 (International Energy a ordability and security (International Renewable Energy Agency, 2023a). Energy e ciency policies are also at the Agency, 2023). e implementation of large-scale energy forefront of the policy agenda with annual investment in energy e ciency policies has been associated with reduced energy e ciency programs being up 45 percent since 2020 consumption, improved rates of technology adoption, and (International Energy Agency, 2023b). Energy e ciency, economic growth spanning from 0.25 percent to 1.1 percent renewable energy, as well as carbon capture and storage are annually (International Energy Agency, 2014). As economic among the three main drivers for climate change mitigation growth relies on energy sources, the e cient use of available (Medina et al., 2016). Amid rapid industrialization and a resources becomes crucial for sustainable development. *Affiliations: World Bank, Global Indicators Group, Development Economics. For correspondence: vereshchenko@worldbank.org. Acknowledgements: We are grateful to Mohammad Amin, Varun Eknath, David C. Francis, Norman V. Loayza, Valeria Perotti for helpful comments. Nancy Morrison provided excellent editorial assistance. Objective and disclaimer: Global Indicators Briefs synthesize existing research and data to shed light on a useful and interesting question for policy debate. Global Indicators Briefs carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank Group, its Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. All Briefs in the series can be accessed via: https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/global-indicators-briefs-series. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/global-indicators-briefs-series. DECIG – Global Indicators Briefs No. 27 Following United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals, measures. States with enacted standards accounted for 80 transition to a ordable and clean energy is essential by 2030 percent of utility electricity savings in the United States in 2016 (United Nations, 2015). Energy e ciency improvements and 2017 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2022). In include shifts to more e cient fuels, increases in technical France, under the White Certi cates Program, energy suppliers e ciency, and the more e cient use of energy and materials must comply with government-imposed energy-saving targets (International Energy Agency, 2023a). Energy e ciency under preestablished timeframes (International Energy Agency, measures lead to a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, 2022). A similar utility energy e ciency program, the Italian decrease the need for energy imports, and drive down costs for White Certi cate Scheme achieved an average annual energy residential and non-residential consumers. All economic saving of 5.9 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) from 2005 to sectors, including energy generation, transportation, industries, 2018, contributing approximately 45 percent of the savings and construction bene t from the implementation of energy needed to meet the energy savings target set by the European e ciency programs (Zakari et al., 2022). Energy E ciency Directive (Bayer et al., 2020). A set of energy e ciency policies that drive technology e indicator on “Incentives and Mandates: Energy Utility adoption on the grid and promote investment in electricity Programs” from World Bank’s Regulatory Indicators for supply system improvement and maintenance can start at the Sustainable Energy (RISE) evaluates the presence of regulations level of utilities supplying energy. In particular, supply-side and non-compliance penalties for utilities to carry out energy energy e ciency measures related to electricity generation can e ciency activities in the three following areas: i) electricity involve upgrading and retro tting power plant turbines (World generation, ii) transmission, and distribution, along with iii) Bank Group, 2021). Further down the electricity supply chain, utility measures related to demand management and consumer energy e ciency measures can target electricity transmission pricing practices. Based on the data from RISE, utility energy and distribution, including high-e ciency transformers, voltage e ciency regulations are present across the economies of all optimization, and sensors for real-time monitoring (Swain et income levels. However, low-income and lower-middle income al., 2022). Supply-side measures for energy e ciency are not economies have more room for improvement to adopt energy limited to electricity generation, transmission, and distribution. e ciency regulations across all categories when compared to ese can also include utility measures that enhance the overall upper-middle and high-income economies. Mandates on grid system, such as rolling out smart grid solutions, and utilities to implement measures for demand-side management initiatives that target other actors, like consumers, through show the widest gap of 17 percent, followed by measures on utility programs focused on the demand-side (World Bank electricity generation with a di erence of 13 percent. Energy Group, 2021). e ciency regulations on utilities for electricity transmission and In 2015, global investments in energy e ciency programs at distribution are most widely adopted in both income groups at the utilities reached about USD 26 billion, representing 12 49 percent and 60 percent respectively, indicating their percent of the total USD 221 billion invested in energy relevance for national energy policies globally (Figure 1). e ciency, and by 2020, there were 49 utility-funded energy e ciency programs in 24 economies (Bayer et al., 2020). Utility Utility regulations and programs for effective engagement in energy e ciency initiatives can be either grid operation and better energy efficiency voluntary or mandated through regulations. In the United States, an energy e ciency resource standard requires utilities One notable area where regulations are addressing energy and other entities to meet minimum energy-saving targets in ine ciencies is through addressing transmission and more than half of states to boost investment in energy e ciency distribution losses. ese losses are sizable. Indeed, transmission Low and lower-middle income economies have more room for improvement across the types Figure 1 of energy efficiency regulations. Source: RISE dataset, 2021. Note: The sample includes 140 economies. 2 DECIG – Global Indicators Briefs No. 27 and distribution grid losses, along with transformer losses, Energy E ciency Indicator 5, “Incentives and Mandates: generally make up about 4–15 percent of total generation Energy Utility Programs”, from the World Bank’s RISE dataset. (Sadovskaia et al., 2019). In the United States, annually, such Dependent variable on transmission and distribution losses, losses averaged about 5 percent of electricity transmitted and used as a proxy for e ciency of electricity supply system, is distributed from 2018 to 2022 (U.S. Energy Information sourced from OECD/IEA database. Control variables used in Administration, 2023). By contrast, in other regions, such losses the model are sourced from the World Bank datasets: GNI per can be even more substantial. Half of the economies in the Latin capita – from the World Development Indicators (WDI); and America and Caribbean (LAC) region were estimated to the Energy Intensity Level of Primary Energy and Total experience electricity losses exceeding 17 percent of total Electricity Output – from the Sustainable Energy for All generated power, posing nancial burdens on utilities and dataset. negatively impacting the environment (Jimenez et al., 2014). A cross-country analysis suggests that economies with utility Improvements in the e ciency of energy systems and energy e ciency regulations and programs tend to have more reduction of transmission and distribution losses can be e cient electricity networks. e results in Table 1 show a achieved through system design, construction, and power load negative and signi cant association between transmission and management at the utility level. Environmental technologies distribution losses and the economy score on utility energy play pivotal roles in e cient energy generation, transmission, e ciency regulations and programs, controlling for income and usage. Such technologies can also in uence energy demand, level, energy intensity level of primary energy, and total promoting greener and cleaner economic growth (Paramati et electricity output (Figure 2 and Table 1), meaning that al., 2022). Investments in high-voltage direct current di erences in energy e ciency cannot be explained solely by transmission, gas insulated substations, and advanced metering di erences in income or by higher electricity usage in some have been recommended to improve e ciency and reduce economies compared to others. e estimates remain robust transmission and distribution losses in the electricity supply across di erent speci cations and con rm the expectation that system (Bhatti et al., 2015). Evidence from an analysis of 87 comprehensive energy e ciency activities implemented on the American electricity utilities for the period 2009–2012 suggests supply side are associated with lower transmission and that automated meter reading (AMR) and advanced metering distribution losses, and thus, higher e ciency in the electricity infrastructure (AMI) devices have a positive in uence on energy supply system. e ciency outcomes, including the reduction of energy losses Moreover, previous research has associated utility-funded associated with transmission and distribution (Corbett et al., energy e ciency programs with reductions in pollution, lower 2012). energy costs, and improvements in energy system resilience and ere is a notable scarcity of empirical literature addressing exibility (Bayer et al., 2020). In addition, investing in energy the impact of environmental regulations on energy demand and e ciency generates approximately 10–14 jobs for every USD 1 e ciency (Paramati et al., 2022). Against this backdrop, this million (International Energy Agency, 2020). us, supply-side Brief explores the relationship between utility energy e ciency regulations and programs implemented at the utility level are an regulations and electricity supply system energy e ciency. e important element in a path towards better grid resilience and independent variable is based on the country scores on the energy e ciency. Utility Energy Efficiency Regulations and Programs are Associated with Lower Transmission Figure 2 and Distribution Losses. Source: The Score on Utility Energy Efficiency Regulations and Programs is sourced from the RISE dataset for 2014. The Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Losses is sourced from the OECD/IEA dataset for 2014. Note: The sample includes 109 economies. Each variable is standardized by subtracting the mean and then dividing by the standard deviation. 3 DECIG – Global Indicators Briefs No. 27 The relationship between utility energy efficiency regulations and programs and electricity Table 1 transmission and distribution losses Variable Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Losses (1) (2) (3) Score on Utility Energy E ciency -.324*** -.205** -.139** Regulations and Programs (-3.55) (-2.60) (-2.02) GNI per capita --- -0.359*** -.326*** (-5.70) (-5.80) Energy Intensity Level of Primary Energy --- .186 --- (1.38) Total Electricity Output (GWh) --- -.084** --- (-2.17) R2 0.1047 0.2198 0.2543 Note: *** p<.01, ** p<.05, * p<.1 T-statistics are included in parentheses. The sample includes 109 observations. Results are based on OLS regression with robust standard errors. Each variable is standardized by subtracting from it the mean and by dividing it by its standard deviation. Regression results show that increase in the ‘score on Utility Energy Efficiency Regulations and Programs’ variable by one standard deviation is associated with decrease in Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Losses variable by 0.32 standard deviations. For all variables, data is used for 2014, the last year of data availability on the outcome variable (Electric Power Transmission and Distribution Losses) taken from the OECD/IEA database. Data on remaining variables is sourced from World Bank datasets: the score on Utility Energy Efficiency Regulations and Programs (Energy Efficiency Indicator 5, “Incentives and Mandates: Energy Utility Programs”) – from RISE dataset; GNI per capita – from the WDI; and the Energy Intensity Level of Primary Energy and Total Electricity Output – from the Sustainable Energy for All dataset. Robust regulations governing electricity network installed capacity over a timespan of ve years following connection and use as a driver for renewable renewable energy policy adoption ( apar et al., 2016). energy integration However, grid integration of renewable energy sources can introduce challenges such as power quality issues, reliability Energy e ciency strategies, while crucial, may yield limited concerns, system stability problems, harmonics, bene ts without concurrent shifts toward alternative energy sub-synchronous oscillations, and the need for reactive power sources for long-run economic e ciency and environmental compensation (Basit et al., 2020). To address these concerns, sustainability (Bashir et al., 2023). Leveraging renewable energy evolving grid codes and standards on maintaining grid stability is essential for achieving sustainable and resilient electricity are essential for increasing renewable energy penetration. e supply systems. e United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for signi cant increase in renewable energy sources, particularly Sustainable Development aims to increase the share of solar and wind, has compelled transmission and distributions renewable sources in the global energy mix to reduce pollution system operators to address their impact on grid stability. and mitigate climate change (United Nations, 2015). Regulations at the point of common coupling require renewable Furthermore, a panel data study of 23 OECD economies from energy sources to enhance voltage and frequency stability, 1985 to 2016 concluded that higher shares of wind, ensuring power quality and reliability. ese requirements, hydroelectric, and total energy produced from renewable covering voltage and frequency regulation, voltage sources are associated with a signi cant reduction of energy ride-through, reactive power injection, and active power security risks (Cergibozan, 2022). Examining regulatory drivers, control, have been widely adopted in economies such as a study of 129 economies estimated that, overall, in 2020, Germany, Spain, Italy, the United States, and others (Al-Shetwi energy laws increased renewable electricity generation by et al., 2020). 2,248.067 quadrillion kWh and the impact for high and upper-middle-income economies was more pronounced (Liu et ese technical regulations that govern the operation and al., 2023). An analysis of global data from 1990 to 2016 showed connection of electrical systems to the power grid are typically that policies for research and development, targets, and scal detailed in grid codes, which de ne the requirements for grid incentives have signi cantly in uenced innovation in solar and stability, safety, and performance. To mitigate the impact of wind power technologies (Hille et al., 2020). Similarly, in uctuations in energy supplied from renewable sources, grid Turkey, regulatory tari support for power produced from codes may include speci c provisions, such as penalties for renewable sources has driven the growth in the wind power signi cant deviations in generated power output (Yang et al., industry (Dursun et al., 2014). Another common regulatory 2020). However, due to their dependence on natural instrument, the adoption of renewable portfolio standards, has conditions, renewable energy generators are often given more been associated with more than a one-third increase in exibility. For example, under the Indian regulatory system, renewable capacity, based on yearly data spanning 47 U.S. states there are no penalties for under-delivering energy by up to 10% from 1990 to 2014. Likewise, the Indian renewable energy of the committed output from renewable energy sources (Joshi sector registered a growth of 17 percent or about 43 GW of et al., 2023). Cost allocation policies further support renewable 4 DECIG – Global Indicators Briefs No. 27 Figure 3 Adoption of renewable energy regulations across income groups Source: RISE dataset, 2021. Note: The sample includes 150 economies. integration by de ning how the costs for network upgrades and energy adoption. e share of renewable energy in total expansions are shared among stakeholders, ensuring fair electricity capacity is sourced from the International Renewable distribution of expenses related to accommodating additional Energy Agency (IRENA). e network connection and use energy supply (Peter et al., 2021). indicator is an independent variable derived from country scores on the Renewable Energy Indicator 5, “Network connection Grid codes with connection procedures have been the most and use”, from the World Bank’s RISE dataset. e index common measure adopted by a majority of economies across assesses good practices in connection and cost allocation such as income groups—present in 86 percent of high-income and the existence of a grid code with clear connection procedures, upper middle-income economies, and in 63 percent of measures and standards addressing variable renewable energy, low-income and lower middle-income economies. Despite grid and rules on allocation of connection costs. For network usage codes being enacted by governments across income groups, and pricing, it evaluates: (i) rules allowing electricity customers nearly half of low income and lower middle-income to purchase power directly from a third party, and (ii) rules on economies—49 percent—do not regulate grid connection the allocation of costs for the use of transmission and procedures in line with international good practices. distribution systems. Lastly, the Renewable grid integration Furthermore, only 42 percent of low income and component scores the presence of regular grid exibility middle-income economies have established measures or assessments, renewables integration issues, the option for standards addressing variable renewable energy to mitigate renewable energy projects to sell into balancing/ancillary signi cant uctuations of power output due to reliance on services, penalties for variable renewable energy, power natural conditions. One underutilized policy instrument across exchange rules for plant forecasting, renewable resource all income levels is the regulation of cost allocation mechanisms forecasting services, and real time dispatch operations. e designed to incentivize the connection of renewable energy control variables: GNI per capita, Access to electricity (% of resources to the electricity grid. For instance, only 20 percent of population), and Fuel exports (% of merchandise exports) that high-income and upper-middle income economies have is used as a proxy for natural resource endowment, are sourced implemented cost allocation policies supporting transmission from World Bank’s WDI dataset. e results show that connection for renewable energy generation (Figure 3). economies with robust regulations on network connection and use tend to have higher shares of renewable energy in electricity The importance of regulations on network capacity (Figure 4, and Table 2). e relationship is positive and connection and use for renewable energy signi cant at the 5 percent level and remains signi cant at the adoption 10 percent level after controlling for income level, access to electricity, and natural resources endowment. Given the importance of well-de ned procedures governing the reliable connection of renewable energy resources to the Conclusion transmission grid, this policy Brief highlights the importance of regulations on network connection and use for renewable Regulatory frameworks can pave the way for building energy adoption. e following analysis explores the e cient electricity grids with environmentally sustainable relationship between network connection and use policies and energy supply and use. is Brief contributes to the World the shares of renewable energy in total electricity capacity. e Bank Group’s goals of fostering a livable planet by highlighting indicator of the share of renewable energy in total electricity the importance of e ective supply-side policies in advancing capacity is the dependent variable used as proxy for renewable sustainable energy practices and supporting broader 5 DECIG – Global Indicators Briefs No. 27 Effective regulations targeting network connection and use are associated with an increased Figure 4 share of renewable energy in total electricity capacity. Source: The Score on Network Connection and Use is sourced from the RISE dataset for 2021. The Renewable Energy Share of Electricity Capacity is sourced from the International Renewable Energy Agency dataset for 2021. Note: The sample includes 79 economies. Table 2 The relationship between network connection and use regulations and renewable energy capacity. Variable Renewable energy share of electricity capacity (%) (1) (2) (3) Score on Network Connection and Use .202** .231* . 226* Regulations (2.00) (1.95) (1.91) GNI per capita --- -1.235 .337 (-0.45) (0.10) Access to electricity (% of population) --- --- -.200 (-0.67) Fuel exports (% of merchandise exports) --- --- -5.224 (-0.91) R2 0.1018 0.1598 0.1957 Note: *** p<.01, ** p<.05, * p<.1 T-statistics are included in parentheses. The sample includes 79 observations. Results are based on OLS regression with robust standard errors. GNI per capita is transformed using natural logarithms. To address extreme values, an outlier removal method trims the bottom and top 5% of observations for the fuel exports (% of export merchandise) variable, effectively excluding cases of extreme scarcity or abundance of fuel resources; the remaining observations are then recoded into a binary variable, where a value of one is assigned to observations falling in the top 50 percent of the distribution. This recoded variable is used to analyze the association between fuel exports, as a proxy for resource endowment, and the share of renewable energy sources in total electricity capacity. Other variables in the model were not transformed and were used in their original scale. For all variables, data is used for the year 2021. The data on the outcome variables (“Renewable energy share of electricity capacity”) is sourced from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), while the explanatory and control variables are obtained from World Bank datasets. The score on Network Connection and Use (Renewable Energy Indicator 5, “Network connection and use”) is sourced from the RISE dataset. Data for the following are sourced from the WDI: GNI per capita, Access to electricity (% of population), and Fuel exports (% of merchandise exports). 6 DECIG – Global Indicators Briefs No. 27 adoption of energy e cient technologies and solutions and traditional supply-side regulations, demand-side policies are facilitates renewable energy integration. e results in this Brief commonly introduced to promote consumption shifts towards nd an association between energy e ciency mandates and energy-e cient technologies, renewable energy, and resource regulations for utilities and improved electricity supply system saving. Demand-side policy measures on environmental e ciency, marked by lower transmission and distribution sustainability will be the focus of the second brief in this losses. Furthermore, a positive and signi cant association is two-part series, which will also present the new B-READY data found between strong regulatory frameworks on network on environmentally sustainable use of energy. e new connection and use, and the shares of renewable energy in B-READY indicators on environmental regulations for electricity capacity. ese results do not o er a causal sustainable use of energy will include the measurements of social interpretation and more analysis will be needed to understand bene ts that extend beyond the interests of the rm and assess the direction of the relationships. the impact on society on the whole. As more data becomes e analysis presented in this Brief is intended to enrich available for research purposes, deeper analysis at a global level research on the importance of supply-side policies for should be done to explore this relatively understudied environmentally sustainable outcomes. Along with the regulatory area. 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