Gulf Economic Update Gulf Economic Update - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - – — - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Saudi Arabia UAE 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 2011 2012 2014 2016 2018 2010 2013 2015 2017 2011 2013 2015 2017 2012 2014 2016 2018 Q2-2019 Q1-2019 Non-oil contribution to growth, percentage points Non-oil contribution to growth, percentage points Oil contribution to growth, percentage points Oil contribution to growth, percentage points GDP growth, percent GDP growth, percent Qatar Kuwait 6 10 8 4 6 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -4 -2 -6 2014 2015 2018 2016 2017 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2018 2011 2014 Non-oil contribution to growth, percentage points Non-oil contribution to growth, percentage points Oil contribution to growth, percentage points Oil contribution to growth, percentage points GDP growth, percent GDP growth, percent Oman Bahrain 10 6 8 4 6 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2017 2010 2014 2018 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Non-oil contribution to growth, percentage points Non-oil contribution to growth, percentage points Oil contribution to growth, percentage points Oil contribution to growth, percentage points GDP growth, percent GDP growth, percent - – 2019: Difference from 2018 2019: Change from 2018 2018 2018 200 1.5 12 0.0 0.10 180 -0.2 0.05 10 160 -0.4 140 1.0 8 -0.6 0.00 120 6 -0.8 -0.05 100 0.5 -1.0 80 4 -1.2 -0.10 60 -1.4 -0.15 40 0.0 2 20 Mar May Jul Jan Sep 0 0 -0.5 UAE UAE Bahrain Bahrain Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Oman Oman Qatar Qatar Kuwait Kuwait Jun Jul Apr Jan Feb Mar Sep May Aug Saudi Arabia (lhs) UAE (rhs) Kuwait (rhs) Qatar (rhs) Kuwait Bahrain Oman (rhs) Bahrain (rhs) - - - - – - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - — - - - - - -2 10 12 0 2 4 6 8 - - — Q1-2015 — Q2-2015 Q3-2015 Kuwait Q4-2015 - Q1-2016 Saudi Arabia — — Q2-2016 Q3-2016 Q4-2016 - Q1-2017 UAE Oman Q2-2017 — Q3-2017 - Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Q2-2018 Q3-2018 Q4-2018 - Qatar Bahrain Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Residual Saudi Arabia Qatar Educ., Health, Prof. Svcs. 2.0 Public adm. & defense 1.5 1.5 Bank., ins. & real estate 1.0 Wholesale & retail trade 0.5 1.0 Transp., storage & 0.0 0.5 comm. Elect., gas, & water -0.5 0.0 Construction -1.0 -0.5 Manufacturing -1.5 -1.0 Mining and quarrying -2.0 -1.5 Agriculture -2.5 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 GDP growth yoy Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Kuwait Bahrain 2.0 3.5 3.0 1.5 2.5 1.0 2.0 0.5 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.5 -0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.0 -1.5 -1.5 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 - - - - - - - - - - 64 - - - 57 - 50+ = expansion 50 <50 = contraction 43 36 Oct-2017 Oct-2018 Oct-2015 Oct-2016 Oct-2019 Apr-2015 Apr-2017 Apr-2018 Apr-2019 Apr-2016 Jul-2017 Jul-2018 Jul-2015 Jul-2016 Jul-2019 Jan-2015 Jan-2017 Jan-2018 Jan-2019 Jan-2016 Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar 10 4.3 5 0 -5 -4.2 -4.7 - -10 -9.4 -15 -15.7 -20 Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait Oman Bahrain Fiscal balance, % GDP - - - 5 0 - -5 -10 -15 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 - - Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Kuwait Oman – 80 120 70 100 60 80 50 60 40 30 40 20 20 10 0 0 Bahrain Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Saudi Arabia Qatar UAE Oman Bahrain Kuwait Q1-2015 Q2-2019 2011 2019f - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 20 40 60 80 0 -60 -40 -20 - - Q1-2015 - Q2-2015 - - - Q3-2015 Saudi Arabia Q4-2015 - - - Q1-2016 - Q2-2016 - Q3-2016 Qatar Q4-2016 Q1-2017 - Q2-2017 Kuwait Q3-2017 - Q4-2017 Q1-2018 - Q2-2018 Oman Q3-2018 Q4-2018 - Q1-2019 Q2-2019 Bahrain 100 150 50 -100 -50 0 Q1-2015 - Q2-2015 Q3-2015 - Q4-2015 Q1-2016 Q2-2016 Qatar - Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 Q2-2017 Q3-2017 Q4-2017 Q1-2018 Oman Q2-2018 Q3-2018 Q4-2018 Q1-2019 Q2-2019 -60 -40 -20 20 40 60 80 0 - Q1-2015 - Q2-2015 - - Q3-2015 - - Q4-2015 Oman Q1-2016 - - Q2-2016 - Saudi Arabia Q3-2016 Q4-2016 Q1-2017 UAE Q2-2017 Bahrain - Q3-2017 Q4-2017 - - Q1-2018 Q2-2018 - - Qatar Q3-2018 Q4-2018 Q1-2019 - Kuwait (rhs) Q2-2019 0 50 -50 100 150 200 250 - -100 40 60 20 -40 -20 0 - Q1-2015 Q2-2015 - Q3-2015 - Q4-2015 Q1-2016 Qatar Oman Q2-2016 - Q3-2016 Saudi Arabia - Q4-2016 - - Q1-2017 Q2-2017 - - Q3-2017 Q4-2017 UAE Q1-2018 Kuwait Bahrain - Q2-2018 - - Q3-2018 - - Q4-2018 - Q1-2019 Q2-2019 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Jan-2015 Q1-2019 Apr-2015 Q2-2019 Jul-2015 U.S. Kuwait Qatar Q3-2019 Oct-2015 - Jan-2016 Saudi Arabia Apr-2016 Q1-2019 Jul-2016 Oct-2016 Q2-2019 Kuwait Jan-2017 Lending rate, nominal UAE Apr-2017 Oman Q1-2019 Jul-2017 Oct-2017 Q2-2019 Jan-2018 Oman Q3-2019 Apr-2018 Jul-2018 rate 16.25 bp Oct-2018 Lending rate, real Q1-2019 Qatar Jan-2019 Bahrain Q2-2019 Apr-2019 Dec 2018: U.S. raises Fed Bahrain cuts Fed rate 25 bp each Jul, Sep, Oct 2019: U.S. Jul-2019 Q3-2019 Oct-2019 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 -5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Q1-2015 Jan-2015 Q2-2015 Apr-2015 Q3-2015 Jul-2015 Qatar Oman Oct-2015 Q4-2015 Jan-2016 Q1-2016 Apr-2016 Q2-2016 Jul-2016 Q3-2016 Oct-2016 Q4-2016 SIBOR Jan-2017 Q1-2017 Apr-2017 UAE Q2-2017 Jul-2017 Bahrain - Q3-2017 Oct-2017 Q4-2017 Jan-2018 EIBOR Q1-2018 Apr-2018 Q2-2018 Jul-2018 - Compared to 4.8 percent yoy in Q1-Q2 2018 Q3-2018 Oct-2018 Jan-2019 - Q4-2018 Kuwait Apr-2019 Credit growth averaged 6.7 percent Q1-2019 yoy in Q1-Q2 2019 Jul-2019 Saudi Arabia Q2-2019 - Oct-2019 - 0 2 4 6 -4 -2 Jan-2015 Apr-2015 Jul-2015 Oct-2015 Kuwait - Jan-2016 Saudi Arabia Apr-2016 Jul-2016 Oct-2016 Jan-2017 - Apr-2017 UAE Oman Jul-2017 Oct-2017 Jan-2018 Apr-2018 Jul-2018 Oct-2018 Jan-2019 - Qatar Bahrain Apr-2019 Jul-2019 - Oct-19 0 2 4 6 -4 -2 - Saudi Arabia - - - UAE 2017 - - 2018 Qatar - 2019f - Kuwait 2020f Oman 2021f Bahrain - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 8 - 4 0 -4 -8 2019f 2021f 2019f 2021f 2019f 2021f 2019f 2021f 2019f 2021f 2019f 2021f 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 Saudi UAE Qatar Kuwait Oman Bahrain Arabia Net exports of goods and services Fixed investment Public consumption Private consumption GDP - - - - - - — — — - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 5 120 0 100 Bahrain Oman 80 Saudi Arabia -5 UAE 60 Kuwait 40 Qatar -10 20 -15 0 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f -20 Crude oil price, average Bahrain Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Kuwait Oman Bahrain Oman Saudi Arabia 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f UAE Kuwait Qatar - - - - - - - - - - - - - – - 250 - Japan 200 - — - 150 2024 100 50 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 2017 Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Kuwait Oman Bahrain OECD countries - - - - 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 Saudi UAE Qatar Kuwait Oman Bahrain Arabia - 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f - - 120 100 - 80 - 60 40 20 0 2016 2017 2018 2019f 2020f - Crude oil price, average Bahrain Oman Saudi Arabia - Qatar Kuwait UAE - - Bahrain UAE Oman 82% (2018) 70% (2018) 59% (2018) 44% (2000) 69% (2010) 33% (2000) Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait – 57% (2018) 53% (2018) 48% (2018) – - 40% (2000) 43% (2000) 50% (2010) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - – - - - - - - - - - - - - - 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2.5 Kuwait (2.1) VAT Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia, UAE, UAE 2.0 Oman (2.0) Qatar Bahrain (1.9) Kuwait 1.5 Oman Qatar (1.9) Bahrain 1.0 UAE (0.5) Saudi Arabia (0.4) Excise Saudi Arabia 0.5 Kuwait (0.2) Taxes UAE 0.0 Qatar Expected VAT revenue, % GDP Kuwait Oman Expected excise tax revenue, % GDP Bahrain - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - – – 6000 600 2.0 500 5000 1.5 400 4000 300 1.0 3000 200 0.5 100 2000 0 0.0 1000 UAE Saudi Kuwait Qatar Oman Bahrain Arabia 0 Biomass Wind 2006 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 2007 2008 2011 2015 2018 Concentrated solar power Photovoltaic Saudi Arabia UAE Qatar Kuwait Oman Bahrain Share of renewables in total electricity capacity, percent (rhs) – 35 80 Saudi Arabia 50 60 40 30 30 25 40 20 20 20 10 15 0 0 2023 2023 2030 2016 2025 2030 2035 2050 10 rev. 5 Concentrated solar power UAE Dubai 0 Wind Kuwait Oman 2020f 2025f 2030f 2035f 2040f Solar photovoltaic Bahrain - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 20 12 100 10 Made digital payments in the 15 90 8 past year (% age 15+) 10 6 80 4 5 2 70 0 0 60 Bahrain UAE Kuwait Qatar Oman Saudi Arabia 50 Financial services - gross value added, percent of GDP, 2018 (lhs) 50 60 70 80 90 100 Average annual growth rate, 2011-18 (rhs) Have financial institution account (% age 15+) Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Bahrain OECD countries - - - - - - - - — — - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - · · - · · - - · - · · · - · - - - · - · - · - - - - · — — · — — - · · · - · · - - — — - - - - - - - - - - - - - 90 CHE 85 FRA DNK y = 9.6151ln(x) - 29.468 MLT SWE R² = 0.4205 GBR 80 AUT IRL LUX ESP DEUFIN ISL BEL NOR ITA NZL NLD JPNISR 75 AUS GRC CYP CAN PRT USA 2018 EPI Score SVK LTU 70 CZE SVN QAT TTO LVA SYC HRV HUN URY POL EST SGP 65 BRN PAN KORKWT 60 ATG ARE CHL SAU BHR 55 OMN 50 10,000 30,000 50,000 70,000 90,000 110,000 130,000 GDP Per Capita US$ Current EPI 2018 Log. (EPI 2018) - - – – Low Medium-Low Medium-high High Very High Bahrain UAE Qatar - Saudi Arabia Kuwait Oman - - - - MENA (excluding GCC) OECD <10% 10-20% 20-40% 40-80% >80% - Water withdrawals as % surface freshwater availability Domestic consumption (litres/person/day) Qatar UAE Kuwait Bahrain Saudi Arabia Oman Australia - Chile Germany 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 - - Emissions Intensity (Greenhouse Gases (GHG) per unit GDP, GDP per Capita, and Total Emissions, 2014 120,000 100,000 NOR 80,000 QAT GDP per Capita, USD 60,000 USA CAN ARE 40,000 KWT SAU BHR 20,000 CHN BRA OMN RUS MEX IRN 0 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 -20,000 GHG per GDP, tons per 1$M - - - - - - - - 0.6 0.5 Emission Intensity of GDP (ton CO2/1000$) 0.4 0.3 0.2 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Export Share by Product Category 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 20132017 20132017 20132017 20132017 20132017 20132017 BHR KWT OMN QAT SAU UAE oil and gas Emission intensive industry rest of the economy - - - - – - - - - - - - - - - - - TOTAL WEALTH Net Produced Human Capital Natural Capital Capital foreign assets Machinery, Subsoil Forests, Female/male, Sum of Agricultural Ocean Renewable equipment, Urban land energy and protected employed/ assets and land accounts energy self-employed structures minerals areas liabilities - - - - - - - - – - 50 Qatar 40 Brunei Darussalam 30 Algeria Suriname Kuwait Botswana Indonesia Saudi Arabia India China Adjusted Net Saving, average (2011-2015), percent of GNI Norway 20 Morocco Azerbaijan Vietnam Bahrain Ecuador 10 Russian Federation Kazakhstan Chile Mongolia 0 Kyrgyz Republic Mali Guyana Mauritania Mozambique Cameroon Ghana -10 Trinidad and Tobago Oman Lao PDR Sierra Leone Sudan -20 Zimbabwe -30 Togo -40 Liberia Angola Guinea -50 -60 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Energy and mineral rents, average (2011-2015), percent of GNI - - - - - - - - - - Produced Capital Renewable Natural Human Capital · High-tech cities of Neom and Masdar Capital •Human capital development · Knowledge-intensive, non-oil-related · Renewable energy generation (e.g., vocational training, labor sectors (e.g., digital economy, and localization market flexibility and skills- industrial equipment, precision · Renewable-energy-based transfer programs) machinery) desalination •Improved government · Financial-sector development and · Protection and rehabilitation accountability and fintech programs of natural landscapes (e.g., transparency · Nature-based solutions, eco-tourism beaches, islands, nature •Increased participation of · Investments in urban services reserves) and the prevention women in the labor market including utilities, public and clean- of desertification •Attracting foreign workers fuel transportation · Sustainable tourism with skills in green and digital · Private sector stimulus plans development technologies and adopting · CCS · Sustainable use of water new business models •Products and materials made from resources •Improving access to high- captured CO2 (CCU), certified quality, affordable healthcare recycled polymers, plastic-recycling •Reducing air, sound, water, technologies and soil pollution - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - · - - - - - · - - - · - · - - - - - · - - - - · · - · · - · - - - - - · - - - - - - - - - - - 10 15 -10 0 5 -5 — Jan-2015 May-2015 - Sep-2015 Jan-2016 - May-2016 Sep-2016 Jan-2017 - May-2017 Sep-2017 Jan-2018 World trade volume (lhs) May-2018 Global manufacturing PMI (rhs) World industrial production (lhs) Sep-2018 Jan-2019 — May-2019 Sep-2019 46 50 52 54 48 56 – 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.6 Jul-2018 - Aug-2018 - Sep-2018 – Oct-2018 Nov-2018 OPEC Dec-2018 Jan-2019 Feb-2019 IEA Mar-2019 Apr-2019 - - May-2019 Jun-2019 U.S. EIA Jul-2019 - Aug-2019 - Sep-2019 Oct-2019 2.0 100 30 1.5 2-year yield used as baseline 80 25 to put curves on similar scale 1.0 20 60 0.5 15 40 0.0 10 -0.5 20 5 -1.0 0 0 1 Mo 3 Mo 6 Mo 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr 20 Yr 30 Yr 2017 2018 May-2019 Sep-2019 Oct-2019 Dec-2019 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2017 Percent of U.S. imports from China covered by tariffs (lhs) Average tariff rate on U.S. imports from China, percent (rhs) Dec 31, 2018 Aug 27, 2019 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - — - - - - – – 5 6 4 5 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f World, Forecast, Oct 2019 World, Forecast, Jan 2019 Advanced economies Forecast, Oct 2019 Forecast, Jan 2019 Emerging market and developing economies - - – 50 75 30 10 70 -10 -30 65 -50 -70 60 -90 -110 55 -130 -150 50 Dec 16, 2019 Mar 16, 2019 Jun 15, 2020 Sep 14, 2020 2017 2018 2019f 2020f 2021f Range Expected Forecast, Oct 2019 Forecast, Jan 2019 - - - - - - — – - – — – – - — — – — — - — - — - — - – - - - - - - - – - – – - - - - – — – — – — – — — - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -