Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 Royal Government of Bhutan Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 Royal Government of Bhutan Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Acknowledgments This roadmap has been prepared jointly by the all the stakeholders listed above. The roadmap is National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology the result of a collaboration between the Royal (NCHM) and the World Bank as part of the Government of Bhutan and the World Bank implementation of the World Bank-supported Group.  project ‘Strengthening Risk Information for Disaster Resilience in Bhutan’. It presents a The roadmap has been prepared under the potential pathway to strengthen the country’s leadership of Mr. Karma Dupchu, Director of the national hydrometeorological (hydromet) and NCHM. Special thanks to Mr. Chimi Namgyal for multi-hazard early warning systems and services, proactively coordinating the information sharing based on the needs of the user community. The from the NCHM for preparation of the roadmap roadmap is based on a technical evaluation and and all the staff who critically contributed to this assessment of the needs and capacities of the work. NCHM which, as the main service provider in Bhutan, issues meteorological and hydrological The World Bank team includes Naho Shibuya information, forecasts, and warnings. (Task Team Leader), Arati Belle (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Dechen Tshering Other government agencies that are responsible (Disaster Risk Management Specialist Consultant), for the provision of advisory services to end users Haleh Kootval (Senior Meteorology and Public which incorporate factors affected by weather, Weather Services Specialist), Gerald Fleming climate, and hydrology are considered as key (Senior Meteorology Specialist), Wolfgang Grabs stakeholders of NCHM information and services. (Senior Hydrology and Cryosphere Specialist), Some important stakeholders encompass around Anish Kumar (Senior Hydrology Specialist), and 20 government departments including those Madhavi Ariyabandu (Senior Gender Specialist). responsible for agriculture and livestock, water The team expresses sincere gratitude to Abhas resources (especially hydropower and flood K. Jha (Practice Manager, South Asia Climate management), disaster management, public Change and Disaster Risk Management Unit) for health, urban planning, human settlement, his guidance as well as peer reviewers, Anju Gaur environment and climate change, energy, (Senior Water Resources Management Specialist), aviation, road transport, and tourism. This roadmap identifies gaps and challenges in the Anna-Maria Bogdanova (Senior Disaster Risk production and delivery of weather, climate, Management Specialist), and Moussa Sidibe hydrological, and cryosphere information and (Disaster Risk Management Specialist) for services and proposes a strategy for improving providing valuable comments and feedback. the country’s institutional capacity in support of saving lives, protecting property and livelihoods, This report was made possible with the financial and promoting social and economic development. support of the Japan-World Bank Program for The information for the preparation of the Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in roadmap was mostly collected remotely, through Developing Countries, which is financed by the authors’ ongoing discussions with officials in the Government of Japan and receives technical NCHM as well as during a technical mission to support from the World Bank Tokyo Disaster Risk Bhutan when consultations were held with nearly Management Hub. Table of Contents Forewords .....................................................................................................................................vii Acronyms and Abbreviations . ........................................................................................................xiii A note on how this Roadmap is organized....................................................................................... xvi Executive Summary...................................................................................................................... xvii 1. Introduction 1.1 Country Context.................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Climate...............................................................................................................................3 1.3 Hydrometeorological Hazards and Their Socioeconomic Impacts. ......................................... 4 1.3.1. Floods and Landslides...............................................................................................5 1.3.2. Glacial Lake Outburst Flood.......................................................................................5 1.3.3. Drought and Extreme Temperatures...........................................................................5 1.3.4. Climate Change........................................................................................................ 6 1.4 Governance and Management of Hydromet Services in Bhutan...............................................7 .................................................................................7 1.4.1. Legal Status in the Government. 1.4.2. Legal Framework......................................................................................................7 1.4.3. The NCHM Roles, Mandates, and Functions................................................................8 1.4.4. Structure of the NCHM............................................................................................. 9 1.4.5. Staffing................................................................................................................... 9 ............................................................................................... 10 1.4.6. Budget of the NCHM. 1.4.7. Major Users and Stakeholders of the NCHM...............................................................11 2. Approach to Modernization 2.1 A System-of-Systems Approach......................................................................................... 14 2.2 The Hydrometeorological Value Chain and Maturity Model. .................................................. 16 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure 3.1 Observation Systems. .........................................................................................................20 ............................................................20 3.1.1. Surface Meteorological Observation Network. ...............................................................22 3.1.2. Surface Hydrological Observation Network. 3.1.3. Surface Cryosphere Observation Network..................................................................25 3.1.4. Upper Air System....................................................................................................27 3.1.5. Weather Radar System.............................................................................................27 3.1.6. Remote Sensing System...........................................................................................27 3.1.7. Data Management and Archiving Systems: Data Collection System, Quality Control/Assurance System, Storage, and Archiving.........................................27 ................................................................29 3.1.8. O&M of the Existing Observation Network. 3.2 Modelling, Analytics, and Forecasts....................................................................................29 ............................................................................................29 3.2.1. Meteorological Models. ...............................................................................................30 3.2.2. Hydrological Models. iv Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 ..................................................... 31 3.2.3. Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Systems. ........................................................34 3.2.4. Hydrological Forecasting and Warning Systems. .......................................... 35 3.2.5. GLOF Monitoring, Modelling, Forecasting, and Warnings. ..................................................................................36 3.2.6. Avalanche Risk and Warnings. 3.2.7. Flash Floods Forecasts.............................................................................................36 3.3. Services Delivery. ..............................................................................................................36 3.3.1. Public Weather Services...........................................................................................36 ..........................38 3.3.2. Water Resources and Flood Warning and Flood Forecasting Services. ................................................................................................38 3.3.3. Cryosphere Services. 3.3.4. Climate Services......................................................................................................38 ....................................................................................39 3.3.5. Agrometeorological Services. 3.3.6. Aeronautical Meteorological Services........................................................................39 3.4. ICT...................................................................................................................................40 3.5. Quality Management Systems. ............................................................................................42 3.6. Research...........................................................................................................................42 3.7. Education and Training. .....................................................................................................42 3.8. Partnerships and Investments............................................................................................43 3.9. Summary: Current Capacity and Maturity of the NCHM........................................................44 4. Roadmap for Modernizing and Strengthening NCHM’s Services and Systems ........................................................................................................................... 47 4.1. Short-Term Modernization (2024–2029)...........................................................................49 4.1.1. A New HQ Campus for the NCHM.............................................................................50 ............................................................................................................ 51 4.1.2. Observation. 4.1.3. Models, Analytics, and Forecasts.............................................................................. 53 4.1.4. Services Delivery.....................................................................................................54 ........................................................................................................................ 55 4.1.5. ICT. 4.1.6. Education and Training...........................................................................................56 4.1.7. Research and Development...................................................................................... 57 ...............................................................................58 4.1.8. Human Resource Requirements. 4.2. Medium-Term Modernization (2029–2034).......................................................................59 ............................................................................................................60 4.2.1. Observation. 4.2.2. Models, Analytics, and Forecasts..............................................................................60 4.2.3. Services Delivery..................................................................................................... 61 ........................................................................................................................62 4.2.4. ICT. 4.2.5. Education and Training...........................................................................................62 4.2.6. Research and Development......................................................................................63 ...............................................................................63 4.2.7. Human Resource Requirements. 5. Conclusion.............................................................................................................................. 64 5.1. Short- and Medium-term Modernization and Beyond. ........................................................65 5.2. Public-Private Engagement and Service Provision.............................................................. 66 5.3. Innovation........................................................................................................................67 5.4. An Inclusive Approach to Modernization.............................................................................70 5.5. Stakeholders Engagement and Dissemination.....................................................................72 Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 v ANNEXES ......................................................................................................................................73 Annex I. Organizational Structure, Staffing, and Budget of the NCHM.............................................74 ....................................................................................................74 A.1 Organizational Structure. Secretariat..............................................................................................................................74 ................................................................................74 Technical Standard and Research Division. Cryosphere Services Division.................................................................................................... 75 Meteorological Services Division ..........................................................................................76 .....................................................................76 Hydrology and Water Resources Services Division. ............................................................................................................................ 77 A.2 Staffing. A.3 Budget..............................................................................................................................80 Annex II. Breakdown of the Estimated Cost of the New NCHM Campus.............................................83 Annex III. Indicative Costs of the Proposed Short-Term Modernization. ............................................84 Annex IV. Timeline of Activities for Short-Term Modernization (2024-2029)...................................87 Annex V. Indicative Costs of the Proposed Medium-Term Modernization. .......................................92 Annex VI. Timeline of Activities for Medium-Term Modernization (2029-2034)............................... 95 Annex VII. Summary of Staffing Requirements for Modernization.....................................................98 List of Figures Figure ES.1. Schematic of NCHM current value chain .................................................................... xviii .............................................................................xx Figure ES.2. GLOF Early Warning System Display. Figure ES.3. Schematic of the NCHM value chain after short-term modernization intervention ........ xxiii Figure ES.4. The Headquarters building of NCHM is shared with other government agencies............ xxiv Figure ES.5. Schematic of the NCHM value chain after medium-term modernization intervention .... xxv Figure 1. Major river systems in Bhutan...........................................................................................2 ...............................................................................2 Figure 2. Distribution of glacial lakes in Bhutan. .....................................................................3 Figure 3. Bhutan map of KÖppen climate classification. Figure 4. Monthly climatology of minimum, mean, maximum temperature and precipitation in Bhutan (1996–2023).................................................................................................. 4 .......... 4 Figure 5. Observed climatology of mean temperature and precipitation in Bhutan (1991–2020). Figure 6. Approved revised organogram of the NCHM (January 2023)............................................... 10 ............................................................................... 10 Figure 7. Sources of NCHM Budget, 2012-2021. Figure 8. Weather/climate data requested by users in FY2020–2021................................................. 12 Figure 9 Schematic of an NMHS as a system of systems................................................................. 14 Figure 10. Subsystems within each system....................................................................................... 15 ....................................................................................... 17 Figure 11. The meteorological value chain. ................................ 18 Figure 12. Sector balance and maturity diagram based on hydromet value chain. Figure 13. Examples of the activities that contribute to each link in the value chain............................ 18 Figure 14. NCHM surface meteorological network (Created by the World Bank).................................. 21 Figure 15. An example of a Class A meteorological station in Punakha............................................... 21 ........................22 Figure 16. Example of a principal hydrological station and current meter in Thimphu. .........................24 Figure 17. Hydrological stations operated by the NCHM (Created by the World Bank). Figure 18. Cryosphere field work by CSD on Gangju La Glacier (2020)................................................25 Figure 19. Cryosphere field work at Thana glacier (2020)..................................................................25 Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank vi Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 Figure 20. Glacier and GLOF monitoring and early warning systems operated by the NCHM................26 ..................................................30 Figure 21. Nesting domain configuration: 15 km and 3 km domains. Figure 22. Weather forecast issued at 4 p.m., valid for 24 hours........................................................ 32 Figure 23. Weakly weather report.................................................................................................... 32 ........................................................ 33 Figure 24. Verification of previous week’s temperature forecast. Figure 25. Verification of previous week’s rainfall forecast................................................................ 33 Figure 26. Thimphu, the capital of Bhutan, is located in a flood-prone valley..................................... 35 Figure 27. Paro Airport, the main aviation gateway into Bhutan, has a very challenging approach flight path.....................................................................................................40 Figure 28. Schematic of the NCHM current value chain.....................................................................45 Figure 29. Schematic of the NCHM value chain after medium-term modernization intervention.................................................................................................................50 Figure 30. Schematic of the NCHM value chain after medium-term modernization intervention.................................................................................................................60 List of Tables .........................................11 Table 1. The main stakeholders of the NCHM and their areas of interests. ........................................26 Table 2. Summary of surface monitoring stations operated by the NCHM. Table 3. Annual maintenance work for the hydromet observing network in 2019–2021.....................29 .......................... 31 Table 4. Schedule of forecast produced by the Weather Forecasting Section, NCHM. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 vii FOREWORDS H ydrometeorological information is crucial in For Bhutan, hydropower is its backbone when it numerous economic development activities, comes to its economy. However, in recent years, protecting lives, and livelihoods. With the glaciers in Bhutan have been melting at a rapid increasing frequency of extreme weather pace of 16 meters annually, posing a high risk to the events and climate change, it is necessary to sustainability of water resources and hydropower plan and implement economic activities that are generation. While everyone knows that glaciers resilient to impending disasters and adaptable are receding, which is not good for Bhutan and to changing environmental conditions. With the entire region, without scientific evidence, it is economic transformation as one of the main pillars difficult to really understand what is happening for the 13th Five-Year Plan (2024–2028), focused and at what pace. Therefore, the National Center on enhancing agriculture production, tourism, for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM)’s role as and resilient infrastructure, hydrometeorological the only scientific agency studying and monitoring data is crucial to projecting and understanding the glaciers and glacial lakes is vital for the nation. possible changes in weather and water scenarios in the short- and medium-term. Therefore, Furthermore, other significant economic activities investing in enhancing sector-specific hydromet of the country, especially agriculture, are highly services, including early warning services for dependent on weather and water. With the weather and water-induced disasters, should changing climate and increasing frequency be a top priority for the government to pursue a of extreme events, the agriculture sector has resilient development path. become even more vulnerable to weather and water-induced disasters, posing a very high risk The Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources is to the food security of the country at large and the lead for the ‘Economic Cluster’ of the Royal the livelihoods of our farmers. NCHM’s role in Government of Bhutan, responsible for driving providing adequate weather forecasts that are now Bhutan’s economic transformation sustainably being translated to agromet advisories is a notable and responsibly. In line with this vision, the achievement in the country that will benefit National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology, the entire farming community, about 125,000 as a crucial technical agency within the Economic people in 2022. The aviation sector is another Cluster, is mandated to provide hydromet services. crucial sector where meteorology information is Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank viii Forewords becoming highly critical. As Bhutan expands its hydromet services for Bhutan, which is critical connectivity with plans to establish additional for the economic development of the country airports in Gelephug and improve its services at and equally crucial for protecting the lives and existing airports, it has become urgent for NCHM livelihoods of its population. to step up its services in this sector. On behalf of the Ministry and the Royal Government While NCHM is enhancing its services to provide of Bhutan, I would like to express our gratitude early warning services for weather and water- to the World Bank for their continued support in induced disasters and sector-specific services to enhancing the country’s resilience against natural critical economic sectors, this roadmap comes disasters and climate change. promptly to guide its investments. The roadmap gives a direction that will help in the optimum utilization of resources, which is important when there are so many priorities but resources are highly limited. His Excellency Lyonpo Gem Tshering I commend the collaboration between the NCHM Minister, Ministry of Energy and Natural and the World Bank and their efforts in enhancing Resources Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 ix FOREWORDS T he need for hydrometeorological services The National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology is gaining importance in Bhutan in several (NCHM) has come a long way as an institution, key economic sectors, including hydropower, and there has been tremendous improvement agriculture, tourism, health, aviation, in its services over the last few years. However, constriction, and disaster management. Studies we are still challenged significantly with human show that investing US$1 in hydrometeorological resources, specialized capacities, ICT systems, and services and Early Warning Services generally overall financial resources, which have hindered results in at least US$3 in socioeconomic benefits our ability to cater to the needs of the various (defined as a 3:1 benefit/cost ratio) and often sectors affected by weather and water. Based on far more. Bhutan is highly vulnerable to several the recent assessment as a part of the preparation weather and water-induced disasters and climate of this roadmap, there are still significant gaps change. As a result, investing in improving in upper air and weather radar coverage, models hydrometeorological information and services are and analytics, weather and flood forecasting, and crucial to achieving Bhutan’s vision to develop its ICT, as a result of which tailored and integrated economy and social well-being in a sustainable services are still at a nascent stage. and resilient manner. Similar to the roadmap that the World Bank The importance of enhancing hydrometeorological supported development in 2015, this roadmap services was well-recognized by the Hon’ble is a crucial document for NCHM to guide our Prime Minister during the National Disaster prioritization of activities and investments in Management Authority meeting held on May the medium- and long-term for enhancing the 28, 2024, where the need to establish a National current capabilities of the NCHM to cater to the Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology Head needs of other sectors. Quarter, including National Weather and Flood Warning Centre and Scientific facilities, installing This roadmap will guide the NCHM toward a more additional weather stations, and flood warning systematic basis for setting strategic and forward- centers were identified as top priorities to ensure looking priorities to improve its service delivery a robust response to natural disasters, in addition and contribute to the development of the national to deriving socio-economic benefits.   economy by producing location and sector- Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank x Forewords specific, well-articulated, and usable information objective and efficient operational landscape in not only on hazards but also on their impacts on development activities. This scientific progress target areas and population, and projected changes will empower key industries, enabling them to in weather and water parameters that are crucial make data-driven decisions, enhance resource for designing high-cost investments including allocation, and fortify resilience against natural hydropower and research and development in the disasters and climate change. Through these agriculture sector. advancements, our commitment is to contribute substantially to the economic sectors and enhance Achieving this modernization program over 5–10 resilience. years in the roadmap requires anticipation and proactive measures to be taken by the NCHM with On behalf of NCHM, I would like to thank the World adequate funding and technical support on several Bank for the fruitful collaboration in developing fronts. this roadmap and the overall hydromet program that has been supporting NCHM for over a decade We anticipate a consequential positive impact and is still going strong. on various economic sectors by advancing and optimizing our hydrometeorological services. The enhancements in weather and flood forecasting, which will help produce impact-based forecasting in collaboration with relevant sectors, climate Karma Dupchu change, glacial melt, and changes in river flow Director projections, will inform decisions to foster a more National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 xi FOREWORDS I n the serene and majestic landscape of Bhutan, unpredictability of natural hazards, which are where the harmony between nature, people, and exacerbated by climate change. This roadmap is culture is deeply rooted in the national ethos, the a testament to the government’s commitment to importance of strengthening and modernizing modernize hydrometeorological services for the hydrometeorological and multi-hazard early country’s sustainable and climate-resilient growth warning services cannot be overstated. Hydromet and development. It builds on a previous roadmap and multi-hazard early warning services play a published in 2015 and serves as a strategic guide crucial role in protecting lives, livelihoods, assets, that aligns with the country’s development vision, and socioeconomic activity. ensuring that resilience and sustainability remain central to its growth ambitions. Modernized hydromet services is particularly important forBhutan, a country prone to floods, Our analysis shows that by investing $1 in landslides, and Glacier Lake Outburst Floods. hydrometeorological services and early warning Hydromet services are also essential in promoting system results in at least $3 in socioeconomic the country’s economic development, particularly benefits. The roadmap outlines a series of innovative in climate-sensitive sectors like hydropower, and pragmatic steps designed to enhance the agriculture, and tourism. Timely and accurate National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology Hydromet data allows for efficient hydropower (NCHM)’s service delivery by enhancing internal management, accurate weather forecasts for capacity with cutting-edge technology to collect informed agricultural practices, and reliable multi-hazard risk information. weather information for the tourism and industry. The path laid out in this document is ambitious, The Kingdom of Bhutan known for its pioneering yet achievable. It calls for an integrated approach, Gross National Happiness philosophy, has bringing together all stakeholders, including always placed the well-being of its citizens and government agencies, local communities, sustainable economic growth and the conservation development partners, and the private sector, of biodiversity and nature at the forefront of to create a robust system that can support the its development agenda despite the increasing implementation of this roadmap. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank xii Forewords As we look to the future, let us be guided by the Together, we can ensure that Bhutan remains wisdom of our past and the innovative spirit a beacon of resilience that plays a leading role that this roadmap embodies. I would like to in regional flood forecasting to warn not only thank the donors who have financially supported Bhutanese communities but also downstream the preparation of this roadmap through the communities living along the Brahmaputra basin Strengthening Risk Information for Resilience further South beyond the border. Project – namely the Climate Investment Fund (CIF) and the Japan-World Bank Program for Best wishes, Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in Developing Countries (administered by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery). The World Bank is proud to be a part of this journey Abdoulaye Seck and remains committed to support Bhutan to Country Director for Bangladesh and Bhutan achieve sustainable and climate-resilient growth. World Bank Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 xiii ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADCP Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler ADSS Agromet Decision Support System AI Artificial Intelligence ARDMS Automatic River Discharge Measuring System AWLS Automatic Water Level Station AWOS Automatic Weather Observing System AWS Automatic Weather Station BBS Bhutan Broadcasting Service BCAA Bhutan Civil Aviation Authority CAP Common Alerting Protocol CDMS Climate Data Management System CPT Climate Predictability Tool CSD Cryosphere Services Division CWC Central Water Commission DGM Department of Geology and Mines DGPC Druk Green Power Corporation DHMS Department of Hydromet Services DHPS Department of Hydropower and Power Systems DL Deep Learning DLGDM Department of Local Governance and Disaster Management DoFPS Department of Forests and Park Services DoL Department of Livestock DoAT Department of Air Transport DoE Department of Energy DoW Department of Water DSM Daily Scheduling Market DSS Decision Support System ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts EMSWRF Environmental Modelling System Weather Research and Forecasting EPS Ensemble Prediction System ERP Extended Range Prediction EW4ALL Early Warning for All EWS Early Warning System FDSS Flood Decision Support System FFGS Flash Flood Guidance System Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank xiv Abbreviations and Acronyms FMI Finnish Meteorological Institute FWS Flood Warning Section FYP Five-Year Plan GAW Global Atmosphere Watch GBON Global Basic Observation Network GCF Green Climate Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GFS Global Forecast System GIS Geographic Information System GISC Global Information System Centre GLOF Glacial Lake Outburst Flood GoI Government of India GPC Global Producing Center GPRS General Packet Radio Service GSM Global System for Mobile Communications GTS Global Transmission System HEC Hydrologic Engineering Center HFWS Hydrological Forecasting and Warning Section HMS Hydrologic Modelling System HPC High-Performance Computing HQ Headquarters HWRSD Hydrology and Water Resources Division ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development ICT Information and Communication Technology IDF Intensity-Duration-Frequency IDF Intensity-Duration-Frequency IFMSS Integrated File and Message Switching System IMD India Meteorological Department ISO International Organization for Standardization IT Information Technology IWXXM ICAO Meteorological Information Exchange Model JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency JMA Japan Meteorological Agency MÉRA Met Éireann Reanalysis MHEWS Multi-Hazard Early Warning Services/System ML Machine Learning MoAL Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock MoAL Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock MoENR Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 xv MSD Meteorological Services Division NCHM National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology NCMWRF National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts NCOF National Climate Outlook Forums NDMA National Disaster Management Authority NFCS National Framework for Climate Services NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Service NWFWC National Weather and Flood Warning Centre NWP Numerical Weather Prediction O&M Operations and Maintenance OPMET Operational Aeronautical Meteorological Data OHS Occupational Health and safety PWS Public Weather Services QMS Quality Management System R&D Research and development RAS River Analysis System RCSC Royal Civil Service Commission RGoB Royal Government of Bhutan RIC Regional Instrument Center RIMES Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia RTC Regional Training Center RUB Royal University of Bhutan SAHF South Asia Hydromet Forum SASCOF South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum SIGMET Significant Meteorological Information SMS Short Message Service SOP Standard Operating Procedure SWFP Severe Weather Forecasting Programme TAF Terminal Area Forecast TSRD Technical Standard and Research Division UKFCDO United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office UNDP United Nations Development Programme WAFS World Area Forecast System WCSD Weather and Climate Services Division WHO World Health Organization WIS WMO Information System WMO World Meteorological Organization WRF Weather Research and Forecasting WWIS World Weather Information Service Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank xvi A note on how this Roadmap is organized A note on how this Roadmap is organized The organization of this Roadmap is along the following lines: The Executive Summary provides an overview of improvement in maturity likely for each element the key points and recommendations of the organization. The recommendations are fully costed. In Section One, the Introduction, some basic background is provided on the climate of Bhutan The Conclusion in Section Five offers some broader and the consequent natural hazards, and on the thoughts beyond the detailed recommendations, organization of the NCHM and its position within including some suggestions for innovations the government structures. and also on the possible role of public-private partnerships within the weather enterprise in Section Two, the Approach to Modernization, Bhutan. describes a generic framework which is used to analyze the different elements within a National The Annexes contain the detail of the costs and Meteorological and Hydrological Service and to timelines associated with the modernization determine their maturity according to a five-level plans, as well as the implications for future scale, ranging from Low to Advanced. staffing requirements. In Section Three, the Current Status of NCHM Throughout the document some text is presented Services and Infrastructure, the work of the in Boxes. NCHM is described and the generic framework outlined in Section Two is applied to the different Blue boxes provide some examples of the elements within the organization to establish the needs of users for hydrometeorological baseline level of maturity for each. information in Bhutan, underlining how the modernization efforts will help to address Section Four is the Roadmap for Modernizing and these needs. Strengthening NCHM’s Services and Systems. Divided into two time frames to align with two cycles of the Government of Bhutan’s Five- Gray boxes highlight especially important Year Plan, this provides recommendations as to points or challenges for NCHM, or key where investments in infrastructure should be recommendations for future development. focused and outlines the expected consequent Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 xvii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Purpose of the Roadmap Development safety of the Bhutanese population and their livelihoods and properties and in protecting This roadmap describes the current situation of its economic investments against weather- hydromet service provision in Bhutan and pro- and water-induced disasters. Various user poses a short- and medium-term modernization communities and their needs are the principal approach. It provides an overview of the National drivers for the modernization of hydromet Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM), products and services in Bhutan. The roadmap its financial and technical infrastructure, human aims to assist the NCHM to enhance its capabilities resources, and information about the users of its through gaining access to and utilization of up- products and services. To provide enhanced and to-date technologies and tools to produce the fit-for-purpose services to its users, the road- best possible forecasts within the technical and map proposes two development stages to help financial resources framework of Bhutan and strengthen the capabilities of the NCHM to bet- deliver sustained, fit-for-purpose, and usable ter deliver hydromet information, impact-based information and services. Addressing these issues forecasting, and multi-hazard early warning ser- will require that full consideration is given to vices (MHEWS). including all meteorological, cryosphere, and hydrological elements of a modern, well-planned Building on the one prepared in 2015,1 this organization with goals, a clear strategy and sound roadmap supported the preparation of the 13th implementation plan, and the means to achieve Five-Year Plan (FYP) and aims to inform the those goals. It will also contribute to ensuring preparation of the 14th FYP in accordance with water security for the country by providing reliable the National Hydromet Policy 2023. The 2015 information and projections on the country’s roadmap proved instrumental in the institutional water resources, seasonally as well as a result of development of the NCHM. The NCHM leadership climate change. The modernization proposed in regards this roadmap as strategic guidance for this roadmap intends to help the NCHM fulfill its strengthening the capabilities of the organization. public tasks by strengthening its institutional and The recommendations in this roadmap are technical capabilities and capacities. intended to assist the NCHM in providing input to the national FYP development over the next two cycles of the governmental planning process. In The overall benefit/cost ratio of modern- addition, the roadmap is firmly anchored to other ization is expected to be 3.1, taking into ac- strategic documents, particularly the Hydromet count the high initial costs of modernizing Policy 20232 which was formulated in parallel with the NCHM. In general, investing US$1 in hy- this roadmap. drometeorological services and early warning system (EWS) results in at least US$3 in so- Ultimately, the roadmap supports the Royal cioeconomic benefits (defined as a 3:1 benefit/ Government of Bhutan (RGoB) in ensuring the cost ratio) and often far more3. 1 Modernizing Weather, Water, and Climate Services: A Road Map for Bhutan 2 The “Hydro-met Policy of the Kingdom of Bhutan, 2023” came 3 WMO, World Bank, GFDRR, and USAID. 2015. Valuing Weather into effect on September 18, 2023, and remain in force until and Climate: Economic Assessment of Meteorological and Hydrological amended or superseded. Services. Geneva: WMO. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank xviii Executive Summary Figure ES.1. Schematic of NCHM current value chain Models and Tailored Integrated Observations analytics Forecasts services services Advanced High intermediate Intermediate Low intermediate Low Unknown/none ICT infrastructure Education and training The economic benefits of enhancements in Status of Hydromet Services and Key Challenges the capacity and capability of the NCHM were The NCHM was established in 2016 as an analyzed in 2014.4 The sectors covered in the study autonomous scientific and technical agency included energy, agriculture, tourism, aviation, responsible for hydrology, meteorology, and disaster risk reduction and management, roads, cryosphere science and services from the public health, construction, insurance, natural former Department of Hydromet Services. It is resource management, and climate change the main agency responsible for the generation monitoring. The potential socioeconomic benefits of information and delivery of products and relating to the use of historical data, current services on weather, climate, cryosphere, and observations data, weather and hydrological water resources in Bhutan. The NCHM financial forecasts and seasonal outlooks, and EWSs were resources are provided by the RGoB, with additional assessed as part of the study. However, these costs extra-budgetary funds from donors, development are mostly covered through development agencies partners, and the Government of India (GoI). and other forms of international cooperation. On the other hand, if the project costs in the beginning Using the hydromet value chain approach and activities in each link of the chain, the current of the assessment period are excluded, then the capacity and maturity of the NCHM are illustrated benefit/cost ratio increases to 5.5. The yearly in Figure ES.1. In meteorological terms, a value benefit/cost ratio increases substantially in 2025 chain describes the general relationship between (in the time frame of the study recommendations) different activities in each system and subsystem, up to 8–9, when the benefits of the historical data from the making of observations through to the start to accrue. This illustrates what has been application of forecast and warning services by seen in many countries—the benefits arising from users. The value chain conveys the important investment in hydromet services accrue primarily concept of the production of value (which in the medium to long term. only happens when the meteorological and/ or hydrological information is used to make 4 Pilli-Sihvola, K., P. Namgyal, and C. Dorji. 2014. Socio-Economic Study on Improved Hydro-Meteorological Services in the Kingdom or influence decisions) and is a useful way of of Bhutan. Report prepared for the Strengthening Hydro- exploring the organization and performance of a Meteorological Services for Bhutan (SHSB) Project. Finnish Meteorological Institute and Department of Hydro-Met Services. National Meteorological and Hydrological Service Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 xix (NMHS). The meteorological value chain has The NCHM’s weather forecasts are deterministic, five links: observations, models and analytics, and currently they do not have the capability forecasts, tailored services, and integrated to produce probabilistic forecasts. Although no services. Each link is the product of science and impact-based forecasts are produced, forecasts technology infusion, and each contributes to social are written in simple form to help recipients and economic benefit. 5 with the interpretation of the weather systems. The NCHM currently runs the weather research The NCHM does not have any meteorological and forecasting (WRF) model that produces stations that are of synoptic standard and data forecasts for three days ahead. However, there is are manually transmitted to the headquarters a need to work on parameterization schemes and (HQ). Of the 169 stations, there are 80 automatic data assimilation for improved forecasting skill. weather stations (AWS), 20 Class A (agromet) Manual verification of outlooks and temperature stations, 65 Class C (climate) weather stations, forecasts are carried out at the end of the year. and four automatic weather observing systems for However, there is no validation and verification aviation observations at airports. Class A stations system for the WRF model. There is a need for are manually operated, in which the observers providing quantitative precipitation forecasts, report to the HQ daily by telephone and monthly via rather than qualitative outlooks. postal service. Data from the rainfall stations are not necessarily used for hydrological forecasting. No data from AWS or other local observations The NCHM does not operate a lightning detection are used for forecast preparation. The obser- network and it does not subscribe to lightning vations are not put into the forecast model. data services from a service provider. There are Forecasters refer to the WRF model outputs no global atmospheric watch (GAW) stations as well as other products from regional and operating in Bhutan. international centers as guidance to prepare their forecasts. In addition, data on rainfall, All 80 AWS installations are prone to frequent storms, and lightning are conveyed by tele- interruptions of service mainly due to challenges phone when a severe weather event occurs. in communication and network connectivity. These challenges make identifying alternative communication channels a necessity. Based on a qualitative analysis, flood warning stations are located mainly along major Bhutan’s precipitation network faces challenges rivers, and the network is sparse in smaller in adequately representing higher elevations rivers. Several tributaries have no monitoring, and remote areas. The majority of the stations especially at the international border with Tibet are located at or below 2,999 meters, and a small in northeastern Bhutan. There is a need to percentage of them are at elevations equal to expand the network in ungauged catchments or or higher than 3,000 meters. Thus, the higher supplement the monitoring system with modelling elevations are under-represented compared with for small streams. The glacial lake outburst flood the lower elevations. Gaps in Bhutan’s precipitation (GLOF) network should be expanded to cover the network are generally in the northern part of the remaining basins. country, which is remote, difficult to access, and at high elevations, although they represent a At present, the early warning system (EWS) significant area of the country. operates on the basis of detecting and issuing warnings, but the NCHM is planning to integrate Rogers, D., V. M. Staudinger, V. Tsirkunov, M. Suwa, and flood forecasting with more lead time into the 5 H. Kootval. 2022. Affordability of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. Washington, DC: World Bank. EWS. As part of services provided, the NCHM is Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank xx Executive Summary Figure ES.2. GLOF Early Warning System Display also exploring the implementation of impact- NCHM does not conduct regional climate based forecasting for weather and floods. The staff research or operational climate forecasting are capable of carrying out flow modelling and due to limited capacity and resources. Seasonal flood forecasting. The NCHM aims to extend the forecasts are issued for the summer and winter GLOF and rainstorm flood EWS to all river basins. monsoons, based on the consensus statement from the South Asian Seasonal Climate Outlook Cryosphere services are relatively new to the Forums (SASCOFs). The NCHM participates in NCHM with limited technical expertise and human SASCOFs and since 2016 has been organizing and financial resources. The NCHM focuses on National Climate Outlook Forums (NCOFs). The monitoring glaciers through mass balance studies NCHM provides climate information services, on benchmarked glaciers, monitoring glacial including monthly and annual climate monitoring lakes for GLOF hazards, preparing and regularly reports, seasonal forecasts, and annual statistical updating glaciers and glacial lake inventories, information and analysis of the climate extremes. updating the list of potentially dangerous glacial In addition, as mandated by the National Climate lakes, conducting studies on melt contribution Change Policy, the NCHM has been working on from glaciers to surface runoffs in major river the climate projections for Bhutan and monitors systems, and assessing hazards associated climate change and climate variability. However, with cryosphere. The center provides data and no regional climate downscaling and regional information generated through the above activities or subregional climate research is conducted as part of cryosphere services to the general public by the center. Similarly, no operational climate and line agencies. However, the center faces forecasting (for example, monthly and seasonal) limited technical expertise, manpower shortages, services exist due to insufficient capacity and and financial constraints. resources. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 xxi Agromet advisories and forecasts services for The NCHM does not have a quality management farmers are at the nascent stage. The Department system (QMS) in place to govern its management of Agriculture (DOA) under the Ministry of and technical operations. The NCHM recognizes, Agriculture and Livestock (MoAL) operates an however, that the adoption of international Agromet Decision Support System (ADSS)6 with data quality standards, methods of observation, inputs from the NCHM. The NCHM provides three- communication, and data handling is of the day quantitative forecast to generate agromet utmost priority. Standard operating procedures advisories and agrometeorological information (SOPs) were developed in 2020 for all operational and forecast services for farmers in the form of activities of the NCHM; these need to be updated seven-day outlooks obtained directly from the to reflect more recent changes in Divisional global/regional models. The center provides responsibilities. outlooks for both temperature and precipitation, but the farmers need quantitative precipitation The NCHM does not implement the WMO-No. forecasts and temperature. The NCHM does 258 requirements for public weather service not have an operational seven-day forecasting (PWS) personnel and thus does not meet system and relies on what is available from the appropriate education and competency regional centers on the internet. No indexes are requirements. At present, there is no established provided, and no crop modelling is performed. A mechanism for the training of NCHM staff, nor are drought monitoring and warning system is being there any institutional arrangements, involvement implemented in a pilot phase. The NCHM does of academic institutions, or a curriculum of topics not operate an EWS for heat waves, cold spells, or to be covered. Building capacity through training frost formation. activities and cooperation with other WMO members is indispensable for the NCHM. While international meteorological data and information are required for flight planning and safe, economic, and efficient air navigation, Proposed Modernization of Hydrometeorological the NCHM’s capacity and resources are limited. and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services The NCHM maintains and operates airport weather stations at all aerodromes of the country: This roadmap uses a system-of-systems approach Paro International Airport and three domestic to arrive at two scenarios for modernizing the airports. It provides meteorological information NCHM. A modernization program for any NMHS for international and domestic flights. Although should include three components: (a) enhancement the NCHM provides flight documentation to of the service delivery system; (b) institutional airlines, it does not issue Terminal Area Forecasts strengthening and capacity building; and (c) (TAFs) or Significant Meteorological Information modernization of the observation, information and (SIGMET) bulletins to airlines and does not receive communication technology (ICT), and forecasting Operational Aeronautical Meteorological Data infrastructure. This path has been followed in (OPMET). The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) developing this roadmap. The proposed activities products are received on an operational basis by aim to strengthen the NCHM’s institutional the NCHM. The NCHM is not ISO-certified for basis, enhance the capacity of staff, technically provision of aeronautical meteorological services. modernize the operational infrastructure and forecasting facilities, and advance the delivery of hydromet and multi-hazard early warning system to the population of Bhutan and sectors dependent on weather, climate, and water information. The 6 ADSS was developed under the World Bank-financed Hydromet short- and medium-term approaches are designed Services and Disaster Resilience Regional Project and the Strengthening Risk Information for Resilience project. to contribute to the capabilities of the NCHM for Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank xxii Executive Summary producing and delivering (a) timely warnings of as access to stations, reliability, reporting high-impact (for respective users) and hazardous accuracy, costs, O&M requirements, durability, hydromet events and their potential impacts and site specifications. Data management is and (b) weather and hydrological forecasts for a key element of an observation network for operations and planning in weather, water, and proper storing, validating, analyzing, and climate-sensitive economic sectors, particularly reporting of all data that are being generated agriculture, energy, transport, water resources, and collected on a continuous basis. and disaster risk management. ■ The models and analytics link will be at the The short- and medium-term approaches are intermediate maturity level through enhancing interdependent and should be conducted in the forecasting procedures and practices to a phased manner to seamlessly build on each include access to, and use of, other regional and other and contribute to the overall goal of the global models, especially the post-processing modernization progress. Thus, the medium-term and calibration of global models to the plan assumes the accomplishment of objectives in conditions of Bhutan. Attention will be mainly the short term and builds on them. focused on improving modelling capabilities in water availability assessment, flash floods, mudflows, avalanches, and GLOF risks in these Short-Term Modernization (five years) areas as well as in overall impact-based flood forecasting. As part of this effort, developing The estimated cost of implementation of the and sustaining a catalogue of mountain lakes short-term modernization over the next five with outburst potential through use of high- years is approximately US$14.9 million (to resolution satellite imagery and application of achieve the maturity levels as shown in Figure geographic information system (GIS) tools is a ES.3). This includes the construction cost of crucial activity at this stage of modernization. the new NCHM center of approximately US$2.8 This also relates to the mapping of high-impact million, operation and maintenance (O&M) and high-risk areas of devastating avalanches. costs (excluding labor costs) of approximately US$2.2 million and capacity-building costs of ■ The forecasts link will be further enhanced US$1 million. The short-term modernization to the intermediate maturity level with presents investment needed to meet the needs improvements and innovations. It will build on of the most important user sectors such as di- current capabilities of forecasters by upgrading saster management, water resources, hydro- the tools for visualization and manipulation of power, and agriculture. Certain high priority data and products by forecasters, introducing activities are included in this approach, which the ensemble prediction system (EPS) and the are regarded as the most urgent to achieve concept of probabilistic forecasting, enhancing critical minimal capabilities for improved me- the understanding and full use of numerical teorological and hydrological services. weather prediction (NWP)/EPS data and products for short- to medium-range forecasts, ■ The observation link after a five-year introducing impact-based forecasting intervention will be at the high intermediate techniques, and nowcasting. Forecasting and maturity level. Observation network design is assessing water availability for the agriculture an ongoing and complex process with addition and energy sectors, GLOF, flash floods and of new stations as required and the rehabilitation mudflows, and long-range streamflow are of existing stations. In making these decisions, hydrological and cryosphere areas of focus for many factors have to be considered such development and enhancement. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 xxiii Figure ES.3. Schematic of the NCHM value chain after short-term modernization intervention Models and Tailored Integrated Observations analytics Forecasts services services Advanced High intermediate Intermediate Low intermediate Low Unknown/none ICT infrastructure Education and training ■ The tailored services link will reach the services will be codeveloped with the agriculture intermediate maturity level. The services will sector to include preparing various crop- be enhanced by paying closer attention to the specific advisories and analytical information. users’ needs and their level of satisfaction Similarly, the NCHM will codevelop hydromet with services of the NCHM and collecting services for the energy sector. their feedback. Closer collaboration with the Department of Local Governance and Disaster ■ The ICT link will be at an intermediate level Management (DLGDM) will be established, for of maturity. The ICT link will be further example, in developing/strengthening joint developed with an integrated system for data SOPs and exercises. Improved services will be transfer, quality control, data storage, and provided to the agriculture and energy sectors. management. All data will be in the standard Climate services will be enhanced by producing format required for the functioning of an climate indexes and implementing plans for integrated meteorological and hydrological ICT establishing a National Framework for Climate system, allowing the retrieval of data in the Services. Similarly, cryosphere services will be format required by all staff and thus covering enhanced by the provision of water resource the requirements for improved data exchange assessments from high-mountain snow and ice between them. The visualization system, fields as well as avalanche and GLOF warnings. It including hardware, software, and training should be fully recognized that tailored services for the forecast and services divisions, will be may not be generated by NCHM resources alone upgraded for integration of all meteorological, but require a knowledge base to be established hydrological, and cryosphere observations and in close cooperation with institutes of higher model data. Additional dissemination channels learning, the science community, and the for enhanced provision of PWS and hydrological public and private sector organizations. services will be established including mobile platforms and the use of the Common Alerting ■ The integrated services link will be at a low Protocol (CAP). maturity level. Following the medium-term modernization stage, the integrated services ■ The education and training link will be at will be developed in the form of impact-based the intermediate maturity level. This link MHEWS and impact-based forecasts. Agromet will benefit from the introduction of more Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank xxiv Executive Summary Figure ES.4. The Headquarters building of NCHM is shared with other government agencies structured training activities to complement sible to accommodate all these diverse needs on the new techniques, hardware, and software the existing site (see Figure ES.4), and the space introduced into the NCHM at its short- required will be such that a suitable site is unlikely term modernization. These will include to be found near the center of Thimphu. training of staff at the regional training and research institutions in meteorological and hydrological modelling techniques, impact- Medium-Term Modernization (10 years) based forecasting, implementation and maintenance of the mobile app and CAP, and Under this approach, plans are made for implementation of MHEWS. a further five-year outlook (14th FYP). Investment is needed to enable developing and To enable modernization and proper develop- acquiring advanced capabilities for providing ment of the organization, a new, purpose-built fit-for-purpose data, forecasts, and warnings campus is required for the NCHM.7 This should services for the safety of the public and support comprise specific buildings devoted to adminis- to development of Bhutan’s economy. This tration, operational service provision, technical medium-term modernization plan is expected laboratories, educational and meetings spaces, a to cost US$20 million including O&M costs variety of other support functions, and residential (excluding labor costs) of US$5.5 million and accommodation for sufficient staff that will guar- capacity-building costs of US$1 million. antee resilient services. The campus should also allow for the siting of weather observing equip- ■ The observation link will be at an advanced ment, including provision for balloon launches to level of maturity with the installation of two gather upper air data. It would clearly be impos- additional upper air stations, one weather radar 7 Bhutan - Technical Guidance Note for Establishment of National to cover the Thimphu/Paro regions, 10 synoptic Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology Head Quarter, National stations, and 10 AWS, all of which transmit Weather, and Flood Warning Centre and Scientific Facilities (RGoB and World Bank 2023). data automatically and are fully integrated and Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 xxv Figure ES.5. Schematic of the NCHM value chain after medium-term modernization intervention Models and Tailored Integrated Observations analytics Forecasts services services Advanced High intermediate Intermediate Low intermediate Low Unknown/none ICT infrastructure Education and training ingested into a central ICT system. Cryosphere modelling and forecasting, techniques for observations of permafrost are carried out at medium- and long-term forecasts (including two locations. All historical data are digitized. ensemble approach) are enhanced. The O&M budget is used for a proper life-cycle management of observation infrastructure ■ The tailored services link will be at the advanced and facilities. The investment for observations level at this stage, but further enhancements covers the cost of new observing equipment, are still being made. Tailored services are now tools, instrumentation, software and facilities, available to a wide cross-section of user sectors supply of spare parts, consumables, vehicles for and further improvements are made in the field visits, fuel, the increased communication dissemination mechanisms to communities. costs, power and other operating costs, and As part of its PWS, PWS/civil contingency quality control/quality assurance procedures. advisers are deployed to provide links with user All the stations are fully functional. sectors, especially with DLGDM, to support the necessary preparatory and anticipatory actions ■ The models and analytics link will be at high to minimize the impact of hazardous hydromet intermediate level of maturity. At this stage, a events. Programs are developed and activities modelling group is established which is engaged are organized to help increase the capacity in continuous research and development (R&D) of users to enable them to extract maximum and introducing innovations in modelling, with benefits from data, products, and services strong links to regional partners in developing, provided by the NCHM, and raise understanding running, and exploiting advanced models. and awareness among the public, especially Model post-processing and calibration and in remote and mountainous communities, on data assimilation are now part of the routine weather-related hazards and risks. This work is operation of the NCHM. In addition, a 30- especially important as impact-based forecasts year reanalysis of the Bhutan climate using a and warnings become the more commonly used limited-area model would aid the design of forms of information shared with the public. At infrastructural projects such as roads, bridges, this stage, the NCHM uses its own TV studio and dams. The data could also be used to drive facilities to broadcast forecasts and prepare hydrological models to estimate return periods content for online platforms. SOPs enable the for flood conditions. In terms of hydrology NCHM to codify how alerts, warnings, and other Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank xxvi Executive Summary operational products are issued. The SOPs also products and information. A ‘one-stop’ users’ enable stakeholders to define their responses to portal for services, enabling easy and user- the various levels of alerts and warnings. The friendly access to serve all sectors from one ISO certification for aviation services and an location as well as mechanisms for collecting organization-wide QMS are maintained. user feedback, is established. ■ The integrated services link will be further ■ The education and training link will be at an enhanced to an intermediate maturity level. advanced level, further strengthened to allow Opportunities are explored to develop a new development of technical capacity and education business strategy for more sustainable operations through a professional training plan for NCHM by initiating public-private engagement such as personnel. On-the-job training of staff to fee-based service provision and outsourcing of support the implementation and application of certain activities such as modelling, ICT services, upgrades for hydromet components, including and software upgrading. MHEWS and impact- issues around effective service delivery, is based forecasting intermingle leading to the ongoing in a routine manner. More staff development of impact-based MHEWS in close are trained at the regional and international collaboration with DLGDM. Other integrated training centers. Training in communication services are also developed, for example, is provided routinely to all staff, especially in agriculture, urban and rural transport, those who interact with the public and with construction, and health sectors by working sectoral stakeholders. Continuing professional closely with these sectors and coproducing development of the managerial, scientific, and services to meet their specific requirements. technical staff of the organization is the norm. ■ The ICT link will be at a high intermediate level. State-of-the-art ICT and computing Innovation facilities (within the technological, human resources, and financial capability of the Advances in scientific and technical innovations NCHM) will occupy the ICT link. This includes have been a cornerstone of the evolution of a centralized data center comprising an meteorology and hydrology over the past decades Integrated File and Message Switching System and these will continue. Artificial Intelligence (IFMSS), a forecaster visualization system to (AI) – Deep Learning (DL), or Machine Learning allow forecasters to view all relevant data, a (ML) techniques will enable Bhutan to access a Data Archive which allows holding of all raw range of products that will enhance forecasting data in medium term for quality control before techniques. The use of these techniques is a rapidly the long-term storage of data, a climate data growing aspect of weather modelling and involves management system (CDMS) for long-term creating large member forecast ensembles, storage of quality-controlled weather data, and potentially extending the number of ensembles a sufficient number of servers, workstations, and downscaling both global and regional models and personal computers. The planned move of to provide highly localized forecasts of rain and the NCMH HQ to a separate campus, comprising other critical weather parameters. The size and specially designed buildings to house and resolution of operational ensemble forecasts support sophisticated ICT equipment, would be are constrained by computational resources, an important enabling element in achieving this particularly in developing countries. ML techniques level of ICT facility improvement. In addition, can be used to oversample numerical weather a service delivery platform and applications are prediction distributions enabling more accurate established to disseminate and communicate representation of extreme weather events. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 xxvii Local observations could be extended using ML example, Forecasters Forum, Working Group, techniques to address the extreme orography Executive Council, and SAHF annual meetings of Bhutan. One of the challenges faced by users established as a part of the SAHF); and (c) building of meteorological services in Bhutan is that capacity (for example, NWP, impact-based the climate record is sparse and rather short in forecasting, observational network, and capacity terms of time. The orography of Bhutan is very enhancement). The SAHF is implemented by the extreme, which makes it very difficult to construct Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning a comprehensive and consistent record of the System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) and financed evolution of weather over the country, because by the World Bank, initially with funding support of the relative lack of observations and the through the European Union South Asia Capacity observations that are taken in a given location Building for Disaster Risk Management Program may not be representative of nearby areas. and by the UK Aid, administered by the Global Local observations could be extended using ML Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. Now, techniques to create fields, which in turn can continued support is provided through the World be used for bias correction of the ensemble and Bank-funded Climate Adaptation and Resilience rapidly update the forecast cycle to create 0–6- for South Asia and United Kingdom Foreign, hour hyperlocal predictions. Commonwealth, and Development Office. The implications for the NCHM would be to The GoI and the NCHM cooperate in operating move their focus away from developing local- some hydromet stations and sharing of data. The area NWP modelling and instead to focus on GoI provides funds to the NCHM for the operation schemes to bias-correct, calibrate, and downscale of 17 hydromet stations within Bhutan. Data of global model data, and also to train some of their these stations are shared with the Central Water scientists in AI/ML techniques. It will also be Commission in India for flood forecasting and important to develop a climate reanalysis dataset. warning in the part of India that is downstream Costs for these activities, including capacity of Bhutan. The network is a mix of manual and building have been included in the estimates in automatic stations using global system for mobile Annexes III and V to this Roadmap. communications (GSM)-based telemetry. In addition, extended range prediction (ERP) for Regional Cooperation rainfall and temperature is prepared with support from the IMD. The NCHM is the cochair of the South Asia Hydromet Forum (SAHF). The SAHF, launched There is strong collaboration with regional in 2018, brings together hydromet experts from institutions such as BIMSTEC, RIMES and the all South Asian countries for sharing knowledge, International Centre for Integrated Mountain building capacity, and aligning national-level Development (ICIMOD). NMHSs are receiving technical assistance with regional engagement. more numerical weather products for both short The activities focus on (a) enhancing the term, medium and long range from BIMSTEC Knowledge Hub (for example, fully operationalize Centre for Weather and Climate (BCWC). RIMES the Forecasters Workbench including knowledge has developed a Flood Decision Support System management and integration of regional and (FDSS) and an ADSS and provides capacity building global model forecasts, cloud services for the to the RGoB agencies. The NCHM developed a Knowledge Hub, Data Exchange Platform, and streamflow prediction tool with ICIMOD and there allied information exchange/sharing platforms); have been activities to monitor snow and glaciers (b) strengthening regional engagement (for in collaboration with ICIMOD. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Photo credit: Dechen Tshering. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 1 1. Introduction 1.1 Country Context to 13.4 percent and agriculture contributed to 6.8 percent to the country’s gross domestic product Bhutan, a landlocked kingdom in the Eastern (GDP) in 2022.8 Half of the country’s workforce Himalayas, is dominated by high mountainous is in agriculture, which is highly vulnerable given terrain with four major river basins. Its elevations its concentration in rain-fed dryland and wetland range from 7,500 meters in the north to under 100 farming. The rainfall in October 2021 affected 17 meters in the south. The region is characterized dzongkhags, 2,500 acres, and resulted in the loss by its many rivers, its isolated valleys that house of around 2,400 metric tons of crops. Bhutan’s most of the population, and the expansive forests economy is shaped by hydropower development that cover 70 percent of the land. Bhutan has four including the sale of electricity to India. While its major river systems: Manas, Puna Tshang Chu, abundant water resources created ideal conditions Wang Chu, and the Amo Chu (Figure 1). There are for hydropower development with total installed capacity of 2.3 GW out of a full hydropower three transboundary rivers in Bhutan with China generation potential estimated at 36.9 GW, in the north and India in the south: Kurichhu, the sector is also vulnerable to climate change, Amochhu, and Drangmechuu. including changes in rainfall patterns, melting glaciers, and increasing occurrence of weather Bhutan’s economy is highly dependent on events. climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and hydropower. Hydropower plants contributed 8 Statistical Year Book of 2023. Hydropower. The Hydropower business has The Hydropower sector also has a great emphasized that it needs more observations of need for better statistics of possible extreme rainfall and river levels. There is a move to put rainfall / flood events (both for severity and hydropower units into smaller catchments, frequency). These statistics are needed as many of which are completely ungauged. input into dam and other infrastructure Without good data on river flows, there is design. The time frames (likely lifetimes of a reluctance to commit investment into the infrastructure) are such that the statistics hydropower infrastructure. This is why there would need to incorporate climate change is a need for more Automatic Rain Gauges projections. A huge problem is that the length and more / denser network of river gauges, of the climatological record in Bhutan is short. all reporting in real time. There is a further Under the Innovations section below, there need to be able to model river catchments are some ideas as to how this deficiency might more accurately so that (forecast or measured) be overcome. rainfall amounts can be converted to expected river levels. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 2 1. Introduction Figure 1. Major river systems in Bhutan N Major rivers Basin boundaries Source: Firoz Alama et al. 2016. “Sourcing Green Power in Bhutan: A Review.” Figure 2. Distribution of glacial lakes in Bhutan N District boundary Glacial lake Source: Bhutan Glacial Lake Inventory 2021. The country’s dynamic glacial landscape for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). A 2021 necessitates regular inventory updates to inventory reports 567 glacial lakes covering monitor environmental changes and potential 55.04 km2, all of which fall between 4,062 and hazards effectively. Bhutan’s northern glaciers, 5,507 meters above sea level elevation with larger constituting 10 percent of the land in the glacial lakes located between the elevation band 1980s, play a crucial role as a renewable water of 5,000–5,200 meters above sea level (Figure 2). source for rivers. The ‘Bhutan Glacial Inventory 2018’ identifies 700 glaciers covering 630 km2, Bhutan’s non-glacial lakes, spanning 43 km2 representing 1.64 percent of Bhutan’s total land above 3,500 meters, constitute essential high- area. The country is home to 3,027 high-altitude altitude wetlands and are an integral part of lakes, with 17 flagged as potentially dangerous the river systems. They play a vital role in water Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 3 storage and the mountain ecosystem and support late November until March, winter sets in, with government hydropower projects. The escalating frost throughout much of the country and snowfall risk of glacial melting due to climate change common above elevations of 3,000 meters. The increases flooding hazards from GLOFs. Knowledge winter northeast monsoon brings gale-force winds about snow cover, runoff, and avalanche risks in down through high-mountain passes. Bhutan is limited. Figure 3. Bhutan map of KÖppen climate 1.2 Climate classification10 Bhutan’s climate is as varied as its altitudes and is clearly affected just as much by monsoons as other countries in the region. The climate of South Asia is dominated by the monsoon: the timely arrival of the summer monsoon, and its regularity, are critical for the rural regions and food production. An increasing occurrence of extremely low snow years and a shift toward extremely high winter/spring n Cold semi-arid climate (BSk) runoff and extremely low summer runoff would n Temperate continental climate/Humid continental climate (Dwb) increase the flood risk during the winter/spring and n Cool continental climate/Subarctic climate (Dwc) decrease the availability of freshwater during the n Humid subtropical climate (Cwa) summer.9 Western Bhutan is particularly affected n Humid subtropical climate/Subtropical oceanic highland climate (Cwb) by monsoons that bring between 60 and 90 percent The altitude range of 100–2,000 meters receives of the region’s rainfall. The climate is humid and subtropical in the southern plains and foothills, about 2,000 mm of total annual rainfall, the temperate in the inner Himalayan valleys of the area between 2,000 and 4,000 meters receives southern and central regions, and cold in the north, about 1,000 mm total annual rainfall, and the with year-round snow on the main Himalayan northern region above 4,000 meters receives summits (Figure 3). Bhutan’s generally dry spring about 400 mm of precipitation annually in the starts in early March and lasts until mid-April. form of snow. Temperatures vary according to Summer weather commences in mid-April with elevation. Temperatures in Thimphu, located occasional showers and continues through the pre- at 2,200 meters above sea level, range from monsoon rains of late June. The summer monsoon approximately 15 to 26°C during the monsoon lasts from late June through late September with season of June through September but drop to heavy rains from the southwest. The monsoon between about −4 and 16°C in January. Most of weather, blocked from its northward progress by the central portion of the country experiences a the Himalayas, brings heavy rains, high humidity, cool, temperate climate year-round. In the south, floods, flash floods, landslides, and numerous a hot, humid climate helps maintain a fairly even misty, overcast days. Autumn, from late September temperature range of between 15 and 30°C year- or early October to late November, follows the rainy season. It is characterized by bright, sunny days, round, although temperatures sometimes reach little rainfall, and some early snowfalls at higher 40°C in the valleys during the summer (Figure 4). elevations. Droughts and forest fires can occur The spatial variation of the mean temperature and during this period—with devastating impact on precipitation for Bhutan for 1991–2020 is shown agriculture, forests, and rural communities. From in Figure 5. 9 Giorgi, F., et.al. 2011. Higher Hydroclimatic Intensity with Global 10 KÖppen climate classification -Ali Zifan (2016) derived from Warming. World KÖppen Specification Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 4 1. Introduction Figure 4. Monthly climatology of minimum, mean, maximum temperature and precipitation in Bhutan (1996–2023) 25 °C 560 mm 20 °C 480 mm 15 °C 400 mm 10 °C 320 mm Temperature Precipitation 5 °C 240 mm 0 °C 160 mm -5 °C 80 mm -10 °C 0 mm Jan Ferb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Min-Temperature Mean-Temperature Max-Temperature Precipitation Figure 5. Observed climatology of mean temperature and precipitation in Bhutan (1991–2020) Observed climatology of mean-temperature, 1991–2020 Observed climatology of precipitation, 1991–2020 Temperature (°C) Precipitation (mm) -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 608 1216 1824 2432 3040 3648 4256 4864 4864 5472 6080 1.3 Hydrometeorological Hazards and Their Asian countries, such as drought and tropical cyclones, are relatively low, according to the Socioeconomic Impacts INFORM 2019 Index. An exception is the 2009 Due to the diverse ecological systems, variable cyclone Aila which caused massive flooding, resulting in estimated damages of US$17 million terrain, and regional climate, disasters affect to properties and housing.11 Bhutan and its people to a varying degree. Bhutan is exposed to flooding, landslides, GLOFs, Natural disasters and climate change threaten wildfire, and windstorms. Among the climate- lives and livelihoods, requiring a robust and related hazards, flooding is the country’s most timely hydromet services delivery. Climate significant. The risks associated with other climate-related natural hazards often found in 11 https://www.nchm.gov.bt/home/pageMenu/781 Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 5 change could affect the intensity and frequency that are highly vulnerable to flooding caused by of hydromet hazards. It is expected to affect heavy monsoon rains and glacial melt. The urban water resources through loss of storage in the areas are vulnerable to flooding and extreme heat form of ice and changes in precipitation and flow in the south. In July 2023, devastating flash floods patterns, causing more floods and droughts. The in Gelephu, Phentsholing, and Lhuentse damaged risk of potential disasters induced by GLOFs is assets, including roads, public properties, and a pronounced, as the country is home to 700 glaciers bridge. They washed away 23 people and a section and 2,674 glacial lakes, of which 17 are expected of the Yungichhu Hydropower Plant. to pose medium to high risks.12 Climate change can reduce the income of the poorest 40 percent 1.3.2 Glacial Lake Outburst Flood by more than 6.5 percent by 2030. 13 The risk of GLOFs is a major concern in Bhutan. The October 1994 major GLOF event from the Luggye Road Engineering. There is a significant and Tsho glacial lake caused extensive damage along the urgent need for better statistics for extreme Punakha-Wangdue valley and created increasing rainfall/flood events to help with planning awareness of the potential risks from glacier retreat road infrastructure. Flooding and landslides and of GLOFs. Glacial retreat contributes toward are major causes of damage to roads. Design the formation of supra-glacial lakes, which can of drainage from roads is a challenge, as is burst, creating a GLOF and causing flash flooding providing proper support to road margins etc. with potential for significant damage in Bhutan’s Some snowfall is experienced so forecasts for river valleys, where the highest concentration of this would be useful. Ice formation also occurs the country’s economic activity is based. This risk on roads during the winter months; between is highest in Bhutan’s northern region and in areas extreme rainfall, floods, snow and ice the near glacier and snow-fed lakes. annual economic and social impact of weather conditions of the road network in Bhutan is 1.3.3 Drought and Extreme Temperatures considerable. The quality of available data Erratic monsoonal activities are increasingly the and the unfriendly formats of the data are cause of extreme windstorms during the spring currently available are significant issues. and multiply the risk of forest fires during the drier winter seasons. Windstorms in the last two decades have caused severe damage to infrastructure 1.3.1 Floods and Landslides and agricultural production. Projected reductions Flooding is responsible for the largest percentage in winter rains in many districts under a changing of mortality and economic losses in Bhutan. For climate, especially in the next three decades, are example, in 2010, flash floods and landslides likely to compound the risk of forest fires. The slow affected nearly 4,800 households, and in 2012, onset of disasters, such as droughts, are less likely flooding in Gasa caused damages of over US$5 to make news headlines and are therefore less million to infrastructure and housing.14 The well recorded, but the impacts are often equally impact of flooding on health and livelihoods is detrimental to farmers, who have limited means to expected to grow and could cost up to 4 percent mitigate the impacts. of GDP by the 2030s.15 Most of the country’s infrastructure is located along drainage basins 1.3.4 Climate Change Many of the climate risks and impacts that 12 NCHM. 2019. Bhutan Glacier Inventory 2018. 13 Jafino, B. A., B. Walsh, J. Rozenberg, and S. Hallegatte. 2020. pose potential threats to populations Bhutan Revised Estimates of the Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Poverty by 2030. World Bank. are associated with changes in the hydrological ICIMOD. 2016. Flood Early Warning Systems in Bhutan: A Gendered cycle—extreme rainfall events are projected to 14 Perspective. 15 WB and ADB Climate Risk Country Profile: Bhutan (2021). become more commonplace as a result of climate Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 6 1. Introduction change and translate to flash floods as well as wheat, barley, buckwheat, and millet alongside landslides. Similarly, droughts and declining snow fruit crops. However, given the increasing fall and glacial loss in the Himalayas can lead to adverse and unpredictable weather, sustaining changes in river flow. The latest reports of the IPCC or increasing the rate of agricultural production (AR6) use the concepts of “Shared Socioeconomic in Bhutan is severely endangered.17 Droughts in Pathways” (SSPs) which are closely linked to the the region have become longer and more severe previously-used “Representative Concentration during the past two decades, thus decreasing the Pathways” (RCPs). As per the SSP2 (linked to RCP availability of water with a compounding effect 4.5) and SSP5  (linked to RCP 8.5) scenarios for on the vulnerability to poverty and food security.18 Bhutan, it is projected that (i) there will be a rise There is a need to identify which crops may in annual mean temperature in the range of 1.1°C become unsuitable to farm under current climate to 3.2°C between 2021 and 2059, respectively. projections and, conversely, which crops could The country is expected to experience an increase provide new opportunities for farmers. Rising in temperature with a more significant increase temperatures and precipitation could also change projected in the highlands; (ii) annual rainfall transmission patterns for vector borne diseases. will increase between 3 percent and 10 percent Higher temperatures will also affect the northern between 2021 and 2059, respectively, with an regions by influencing glacier melt.19 uneven distribution. The projections suggest increasing rainfall during the monsoon (especially in the months June, July and August) while the Public Health. Changes to the hydrological winter seasons are likely to receive a decrease in cycle are not the only possible adverse impact rainfall in some parts of the country. of Climate Change. Outbreaks of vector-borne diseases (dengue and malaria) can occur Accelerated melting of glaciers, which act as and some prediction of the likely weather natural water retention and dispensing mech- conditions that favor these would help to anisms, can disrupt the hydrological regime of prepare for them more effectively. Heat health perennial river systems and have a profound is also an issue; there was a dry period in July effect on water availability and productivity of in 2022—a break in the monsoon rains— water-dependent sectors such as agriculture and when temperatures rose considerably and it hydropower, making the population increasingly became uncomfortably hot, a situation that vulnerable and potentially putting water avail- possibly should have led to targeted advisories ability and food security at risk. Several studies to those undertaking manual work such as in have found that South Asia is already a highly construction. Another important service would water-stressed region. 16 It has low levels of wa- be the prediction of events that might lead to ter storage capacity per capita, and groundwater infrastructure damage, especially to the water depletion, coupled with declining water availabil- infrastructure, as losing water supply can lead ity, increases vulnerability to fluctuations in water to disease outbreaks. flows and changing monsoon patterns. The effects of climate change have the potential to signifi- cantly aggravate the situation further. Changes in the cryosphere, melting of snow from higher temperatures, variability of precipitation, Given the scale of potential impacts, climate and thawing of permafrost can further trigger change may derail current development and 17 Choggyel, N., and L. Kumar. 2018. “Climate Change and heavily affect agricultural output. Currently, Potential Impacts on Agriculture in Bhutan: A Discussion of crops cultivated in Bhutan include rice, maize, Pertinent Issues.” Agriculture and Food Security 7 (79): 1–13. 18 Tandlich, R., Angala, H., Vhiriri, E.P., et al., 2018. “Disaster and Health Vulnerability Assessment for the Population of the 16 Fung, F., A. Lopez, and M. New. 2011. Water Availability in +2°C Kingdom of Bhutan.” Studies in Humanities and Social Sciences 7 (1). and+4°C Worlds. 19 Climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org (vulnerability). Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 7 glacier lake outbursts. Another aspect of climate change will be the destabilization of large parts of The Vision of the Hydro-met Policy 2023 high-altitude mountain environments due to the Building a nation and society with access to melting of permafrost and the resulting increase high-quality, actionable weather, climate, and of mass movements, including rock falls and hydrological information, with preparedness landslides. and responsiveness to hydrometeorological threats and opportunities in ultimate pursuit of gross national happiness. 1.4 Governance and Management of Hydromet Services in Bhutan 1.4.2 Legal Framework 1.4.1 Legal Status in the Government The legal framework that provides the mandate The National Centre for Hydrology and and support to the NCHM is based on the following: Meteorology (NCHM) was established in 2016 by the Cabinet as a publicly funded government ■ The Cabinet on December 11, 2015, during the agency. It is the principal agency responsible 92nd Lhyengye Zhungtshog (Cabinet Meet- for the generation of information and delivery ing) approved the establishment of the NCHM of products and services on weather, climate, and mandated it to collect and provide author- cryosphere, and water resources in Bhutan. There itative information to the people and develop- are no other sources besides the NCHM to provide ment sectors to plan and prepare for, mitigate, meteorological and hydrological forecasts and and respond to natural and extreme hydromet observations in Bhutan. events. The ‘Hydro-met Policy of the Kingdom of Bhutan’ ■ The Water Act 2011 aims to ensure that the approved by the Cabinet in 2023, is the main water resources of Bhutan are protected, con- policy framework that defines the responsibilities served, and managed in an economically effi- of the NCHM and provides guidance to standardize cient and environmentally sustainable manner. hydrometeorological instrumentation and The act mandates the earlier Ministry of Eco- quality management system (QMS), information nomic Affairs which housed the Department of management, national compliance with Hydromet Services (DHMS), now NCHM, for international agreements that Bhutan is party collection, analysis, and dissemination of water to, enhancing research, and engagement with resources data and monitoring of water flows private sector and international entities. The including the discharge level and sediment for stated objectives of the policy are to strengthen the National Integrated Water Resources Man- institutional mandate of the NCHM; strengthen agement Plan, planning and design of water hydromet observation network, communication, resource infrastructure including dams, and and infrastructure facilities; strengthen database GLOF issues. management and data exchange; enhance effective delivery of hydromet services; harmonize and ■ The Climate Change Policy 2020 mandates the standardize hydromet instrumentation and data NCHM to (a) provide national source of hy- collection; promote understanding of hydromet drometeorological data and services to meet science through research and development the needs of the general public, emergency (R&D); promote professional capacity through services, and other specialized users and (b) education and training; enhance partnership provide hydrometeorological data and infor- with stakeholders; and promote regional and mation, climate modelling and scenarios, and international cooperation. early warning services. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 8 1. Introduction ■ The Disaster Management Act 2013 identifies for weather incidents and events that threaten the NCHM as the hydromet hazard early warn- lives and livelihoods; ing service provider in the country to ensure ■ Enhance climate services to understand and an early warning system (EWS) for identified adapt to climate-related risks; hydromet hazards and notify all vulnerable populations and responding agencies of the ■ Develop capacity to provide integrated and threatening disaster situation or disaster in the coupled monitoring, detection and forecast country. Subsequently, in 2019, the National services to support assessment and manage- Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) des- ment of water resources and hydrometeorolog- ignated the NCHM as the national hydromet ical hazards; hazard early warning service provider in the country. ■ Build competence to provide sector-relevant information for socioeconomic development, ■ The Civil Aviation Act 2016 retains the and support development of integrated envi- authority to direct the development of rules and ronmental services to foster healthy communi- regulations for aviation meteorological services ties and ecosystems; and and delegate a competent entity to provide meteorological services for air navigation. This ■ Sustain a highly skilled professional workforce responsibility has now been transferred to the equipped with training, tools, and infrastruc- NCHM which is mandated to provide reliable ture to fulfill the mission. aviation met services for air navigation in compliance with the International Civil Aviation The mandate of the NCHM is “Provide scientif- Organization (ICAO) requirements, other ic and technological services in hydrology, water international conventions, and best practices. resources, meteorology, climatology, and cryo- Civil aviation is regulated and administered sphere to ensure the safety and socioeconomic by the Bhutan Civil Aviation Authority (BCAA), well-being of society and to support national and which came into effect in 2015 to replace the international needs.” Department of Civil Aviation. The main functions of the NCHM are as follows: 1.4.3 The NCHM Roles, Mandates, and ■ Establish and operate a national observation net- Functions work and telemetry system for weather, climate, The vision of the NCHM is to be a “Centre cryosphere, hydrology, and water resources. of Excellence in Hydrology, Meteorology and ■ Maintain a national database (repository) of Cryosphere Science and Services.” hydrology, meteorology, cryosphere, and relat- ed environmental data and information. The mission of the NCHM is “Monitoring and understanding of hydrology, weather, climate and ■ Provide PWS, climate services, agrometeorolo- cryosphere, for timely provision of information gy, and climate projection and services to protect lives and property and support national needs for ecologically balanced ■ Conduct aviation meteorological observation sustainable development.” and provide aviation meteorological services ■ Provide hydrological forecasting (flow and The goals of the NCHM are to: flood), water resource assessment and inven- ■ Improve result-based decision support service tories Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 9 ■ Assess and map hydrometeorological and GLOF forecasting and service delivery easier. This is of- hazards, and provide Early Warning Services ten not the case in other countries, which makes coordination between meteorology and hydrol- ■ Study and monitor snow, glaciers, and glacial ogy challenging. Functions of the secretariat and lakes in the country. Conduct scientific stud- ies on the cryosphere to make an inventory and the four divisions of the NCHM are described in assess its potential in terms of water resources. Annex I. Carry out hazard assessment and recommend suitable measures to address risk and hazard The NCHM has its headquarters (HQ) in Thimphu associated with this field. and operates two regional offices. The West Regional Office is within the HQ in Thimphu which ■ Promote and conduct research on cryosphere, looks after all the hydrometeorological network meteorology (weather and climate), hydrology, and facilities covering Jaldakha, Ammochhu, and water resources. Wangchhu, Punatsangchhu, Aiechhu, and Aiechhu ■ Enhance human resources development and (Maokhola) sub-basins. The East Regional Office professional capacity in the field of hydrome- is at Kurjey, Bumthang, and looks after all the teorology and cryosphere services. hydrometeorological network and facilities ■ Promote and facilitate standardization of hy- covering the whole Manas River basin. dromet instruments, methods of observation, and recording. 1.4.5 Staffing ■ Establish collaboration and link with relevant The NCHM has 207 approved posts according national, regional, and international organiza- to the 12th FYP. The center currently operates tions. with 185 employees. All technical positions are at the HQ where there are also a similar number 1.4.4 Structure of the NCHM of nontechnical staff. The field positions are all Through the Civil Service Reform Act 2022, the nontechnical. Most of the technical positions are Governing Board was dissolved in December 2022 filled by engineers. There are few university- and the NCHM now has a functional autonomy trained meteorologists, atmospheric scientists, or with the Director overseeing its administration and hydrologists. This is a significant gap because the management. The Director reports to the Secretary, national hydrological and meteorological service Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MoENR), staff have to be trained to cover all basic functions based on relevance and synergies of functions. The related to weather services, meteorology, oversight on administration, strategic policy, and atmospheric science, hydrology, and cryosphere. governance of the center is guided by the Secre- Since the center is responsible for monitoring tary, MoENR. The new organogram of the center and operation of national hydrometeorological is shown in Figure 6. The organizational structure network stations covering the whole of Bhutan of the NCHM accounts for the important divisions (all national hydrometeorological stations), and sections common to national hydrological and meteorological service institutions international- the majority of staff are under the technician/ ly. Quite significantly, it combines meteorological, nontechnical category followed by the professional hydrological, and cryosphere divisions within the and management levels. Annex I presents the same organization, making coordination between current staffing details of NCHM. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 10 1. Introduction Figure 6. Approved revised organogram of the NCHM (January 2023) Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources (MoENR) (Secretary) Scientific and Technical Advisory Council (STAC) National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (Director/DG) Secretariat (Administration, Finance, HR, Planning, Procurement, ICT) Technical Standard Cryosphere Services Meteorological Services Hydrology and Water Resources and Research (TSRD) Division (CSD) Division (MDS) Services Division (HWRSD) Flood Warning Gol Program (Office of TMO) Technical Research Hydrological Hydrological Monitoring Information Meteorological Climate Weather Climate Data Aviation Hydrological Sediment Planning and and Forecasting Information and Survey Management Observation Services Forecasting Management Met Observation and WQ Standard Publication and Warning Management Section Section Section Section Section Section Section Section Section Section Section Section Section 24/7 National Weather and Flood Warning Centre (NWFWC) Regional Office (EAST) Regional Office (WEST) Bumthang Thimphu 1. Flood/GLOF EWS Control Rooms/Site 1. Flood/GLOF EWS Control Rooms/Site Office/Labs Office/Labs 2. Meteorological Stations 2. Meteorological Stations 3. Hydrological Stations 3. Hydrological Stations 4. Flood/GLOF EWS Station 4. Flood/GLOF EWS Station Source: NCHM. Note: DG = Director-General; TMO = Technical Maintenance Officer. 1.4.6 Budget of the NCHM to be complemented by a significant rise in the current budget if the full benefits of modernization Between FY13 and FY21, the NCHM’s total annual are to the delivered to the Bhutanese citizens. The budget ranged from US$1.3 million to US$4.5 NCHM has been efficient in utilizing both its own million, of which more than half was funded (RGoB) budget resources and those provided by by donors, followed by the RGOB (32 percent) development partners with the expenditure figures and GoI (16 percent). The strong dependency on reaching 90 percent or more of the available budget. development partner funding was observed to support capital expenditure20, although in more recent years the capital expenditure is more Figure 7. Sources of NCHM Budget, balanced between the three sources, mainly due 2012-2021 to a decrease in capital (project) funding from development partners. However, a degree of resilience in the current budget21 and the increase 32% over the final three years displayed are noteworthy. This is particularly relevant as the proposed 52% capital investments outlined in Chapter 4 as being necessary for the modernization program will need 16% 20 Includes operation and maintenance (O&M) of existing works/ equipment and new works ● RGoB ● Government of India ● Development Partner 21 Includes staff salary and allowances Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 11 More details are provided in Annex I. ■ Impact-based forecasts (all sectors) ■ Aviation services to ICAO standards, including 1.4.7 Major Users and Stakeholders of the NCHM the QMS (aviation sector) A considerable number of government ministries ■ Route forecasts (tourism) and departments including those responsible for ■ High-frequency spatially distributed hydrolog- agriculture and livestock, water resources, disaster ical and climate data (all sectors) management, health, energy, particularly hydro- power, tourism, infrastructure, forestry and park ■ Climate projection (all sectors) services, environment and climate change, and ■ GLOFwarning services (all sectors) transport are among the main users of hydromet information provided by the NCHM. In addition, ■ Impact-based flood early warning services the NCHM provides weather/climate and hydrolog- (all sectors) ical data and information to private sector entities ■ Snow, avalanche, and mass movement early such as the Druk Green Power Corporation as well warning (all sectors) as academic researchers and students, foreign in- stitutes, and others based on request. The meteo- ■ Hourly forecasts (transport) rological, hydrological, and cryosphere information ■ Icing advisories (transport) and services required and some of the major users who require the information are as follows: Table 1 provides the list of some of the main ■ Short- and medium-range and seasonal fore- stakeholders and partners of the NCHM and their casts (agriculture, energy) respective requirements for products and services provided by the center. ■ Probabilistic forecasts (all sectors) ■ Long-range forecasts/projection (agriculture, health, forestry) Table 1. The main stakeholders of the NCHM and their areas of interests Agency Information and services required from the NCHM Department of Precipitation, temperature, and relative humidity short-range forecasts, hydrological data in terms Water (DoW), of flow, sediments, and ambient water quality for major rivers, site-specific weather/climate MoENR information, and forecasts which actually are representative of that particular locality. Warnings for different kinds of floods and extreme weather events are mostly isolated based on the establishment of weather stations, but there is a need for uniformity in making forecasts and projections throughout the country There is a need for a more dense network of rain and river gauges to provide data for modelling river catchments. Also needed are better statistics for extreme rainfall events which would incorporate the likely impacts of climate change. Department Extreme weather, floods, GLOF EWS, and flood hazard maps to allow intervention by first responders of Local as well as climate statistics for developing preparedness and strategies and planning. Governance and Disaster Management (DLGDM) Department of Medium-/long-range forecasts to prepare for and prevent climate-sensitive diseases as well as to Public Health, position medical supplies and equipment at the health facilities in advance, preventing and mitigating Ministry of the impact of climate-sensitive diseases. Capacity development of health professionals to help them Health utilize hydromet information more fully is a major requirement. continues Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 12 1. Introduction Table 1. The main stakeholders of the NCHM and their areas of interests (cont.) Agency Information and services required from the NCHM Department Long-term and reliable data/information for planning and design, short-term forecasts (24 hours of Energy ahead) for daily scheduling market (DSM). Additional information and products required include (DoE, MoENR) hydrological data on tributaries (currently all hydrological data are limited to major river basins) and Druk to allow hydropower developments of smaller capacity, hourly inflow forecasts for energy forecast Green Power production, rainfall with a return period for flood estimation, isohyet maps, extreme flood and rainfall Corporation events, and rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. (DGPC) Department Hydromet data and information (short- and medium-range weather forecasts, seasonal forecasts, of Agriculture drought monitoring) in support of operations for land preparation, date of sowing, nutrient (DOA), management, pesticide application, irrigation, and harvesting. There is a need for additional Ministry of improvements in medium-range forecasting and its integration in the ADSS agromet decision support Agriculture system (ADSS) of Bhutan. Also, higher-resolution temperature and rainfall data are required for crop and Livestock modelling. (MoAL) Department The information received is mainly the general public weather forecasts, and although these are useful of Livestock for short-term daily operations, they are not helpful for long-term planning. Improvements required (DoL), MoAL include area-specific forecasts and easy access to real-time and time series data for scientists and researchers as well as client-centric weather forecasts formats (text, voice, graphics, and so on). Department of Aviation meteorological services are required for flight safety and efficiency of flight operations and Air Transport monitoring aerodrome weather conditions. Meteorological information is required that includes basic (DoAT), data/information such as quasi-nonhydrostatic (QNH), wind direction/speed, altitude, temperature, Ministry of cloud, and visibility for both ends of the runway. Improvements required include implementation of Infrastructure the ICAO Meteorological Information Exchange Model (IWXXM) and QMS as mandated by ICAO and and Transport the Bhutan Civil Aviation Authority. (MoIT) Department Studying and managing forest ecosystem, forest species/vegetation shift modelling, forest fire hazard of Forests and modelling, and pest and disease modelling require long-term climate data (although not conducted at Park Services the moment). (DoFPS), At the moment, forecast and warning information about weather and hydrology is not being used in MoENR the forestry sector, but the climate data have been useful in understanding the growth of different forest/vegetation types as per the climate variability for the particular forest management area and helpful in planning harvesting and planting/reforestation activities. An online portal where climate data could be downloaded is highly desirable, and temperature, precipitation, and humidity data in spatial format (raster data) with high resolution would be required for advanced applications of weather and climate data in the forestry sector. Figure 8 shows the sectors and number of weather/climate data requested in FY2020–2021. Figure 8. Weather/climate data requested by users in FY2020–2021 80 74 72 70 60 50 40 31 30 20 12 10 5 1 0 Education/ Govt. Dept./ Business/ Foreign News/Media Corporate Research Ministries Private sector institutions house Sectors of various data users Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 13 2. Approach to Modernization Paro International Airport. Photo credit: mtcurado. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 14 2. Approach to Modernization 2.1 A System-of-Systems Approach This roadmap uses a system-of-systems proposed in this roadmap intends to help the approach to arrive at two scenarios for NCHM fulfill its public tasks by strengthening modernizing the NCHM. The purpose of its institutional and technical capabilities modernizing hydromet services is to reduce and capacities. The generic illustration of a the socioeconomic risks of weather, climate, weather, climate or hydrological ‘system of hydrological and cryosphere-related events, systems’ of a typical National Meteorological and to protect lives and economic/development and Hydrological Service (NMHS) is shown gains. It will also contribute to ensuring water in Figure 9. This and the subsystems (Figure security for the country by providing reliable 10) of each system can be used to analyze information and projections on the country’s the status of any NMHS and to visualize water resources, seasonally as well as a investments required to achieve a particular result of climate change. The modernization level of improvement. Figure 9. Schematic of an NMHS as a system of systems Objective Monitoring Actions, services, and impact and monitoring forecasting observing Service and feedback Modelling and warning systems delivery systems systems systems systems Quality management systems ICT systems Technology infusion systems Capacity building Source: Rogers et al. 2019. A modernization program for any NMHS should high-level overview of the major requirements include three components: (a) enhancement for each of the three components in an NMHS of the service delivery system; (b) institutional is presented below. This collection of activities strengthening and capacity building; and (c) will need to be tailored to the actual needs and modernization of the observation, ICT, and the existing situation of the NCHM at the time of forecasting infrastructure.22 This path has implementation. been followed in developing this roadmap. The proposed activities aim to strengthen the Enhancing Service Delivery: NCHM’s institutional basis, enhance the capacity of staff, technically modernize the operational ■ Establishing and/or strengthening commu- infrastructure and forecasting facilities, and nication channels and developing stronger advance the delivery of hydromet and multi- relationships with stakeholders and users of hazard early warning system (MHEWS) to the hydromet information including gathering population of Bhutan and sectors dependent feedback, for improving both the use and the on weather, climate, and water information. A usefulness of the hydromet services 22 Rogers and Tsirkunov 2013. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 15 Figure 10. Subsystems within each system Monitoring and observing Modelling Objective and impact forecasting Service delivery Actions, service monitoring systems systems and warning systems systems and feedback systems Global data system Severe hazard Public weather Global NWP systems Services systems forecasting systems services systems for public National data systems Regional NWP systems Nowcasting system G2G disaster management service Surface obs systems system Services systems for Limited area model Very short range national and provincial system forecasting system governments Upper air system G2G agriculture service system Nowcasting model Short range system forecasting system Radar system Service systems G2G water and power for businesses Hydro modelling Medium range management Data management and services system systems forecasting system archiving systems Long range G2G and G2B aviation External data systems forecasting system services system ICT systems Data comms Technology infusion G2G and G2B climate systems systems services system Quality management Computing hardware External research and systems and software systems development systems Institutional Communications Internal research and management systems systems development systems Public-Private cooperative services systems to key Operational Cloud computing Transition research to businesses management systems systems operations systems Capacity building Met/Hydro institutional Stakeholder institutions End-user training education and training training and outreach Source: Rogers and Tsirkunov 2013. Note: G2G = Government to government; NWP = Numerical weather prediction. ■ Developing MHEWS including streamlining ■ Enhancing tailored services to critical weather the mechanisms for issuing and disseminating and climate-dependent economic sectors, in- early warnings among the main responsible cluding, but not limited to, agencies ● Agricultural services, including an agricul- ■ Developing impact-based forecasting to facili- ture advisory service with drought moni- tate users’ anticipatory measures and response toring and allied activities to strengthen the capability ongoing operational Agromet Advisory Ser- ■ Enhancing communication of information on vices; severe weather and hydrological and cryo- ● Hydrological and cryosphere information sphere hazards services for integrated water resources man- ■ Improving access by vulnerable communities agement; and to weather, water, and climate information through multiple dissemination and commu- ● Services to strengthen resilience in sectors nication channels and socially relevant modes such as energy, transport, health, and urban and communication formats environment. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 16 2. Approach to Modernization Institutional Strengthening and Capacity 2.2 The Hydrometeorological Value Chain Building: and Maturity Model ■ Enhancing the technical and management capa- The hydrometeorological value chain and ma- bilities and skills of staff of the NCHM, including turity model are used to assess the current and managing and maintaining modern observing future status of the NCHM through the short- networks; utilizing modern forecasting tools and medium-term modernization programs ■ Establishing an institutional mechanism be- in Chapters 4 and 5. In meteorological terms, a tween the NCHM, partners, and stakeholders value chain describes the general relationship be- for sharing data and information and for joint tween different activities in each system and sub- product development and dissemination. system, from the making of observations through to the application of forecast and warning services Improving Observing Network, ICT by users. The value chain conveys the important Infrastructure, and Forecasting: concept of the production of value (which only ■ Designing new and rehabilitating (as required) happens when the meteorological and/or hydro- existing observation networks logical information is used to make or influence decisions) and is a useful way of exploring the ■ Establishing/enhancing data management organization and performance of an NMHS. Fig- systems ure 11, adopted from Thorpe and Rogers (2021),23 ■ Strengthening the ICT infrastructure provides one interpretation of the meteorological value chain. It has five links: observations, mod- ■ Introducing modern forecasting tools and els and analytics, forecasts, tailored services, and methodologies, including ensemble prediction integrated services. Each link is the product of systems (EPS) and probabilistic forecasting to science and technology infusion, and each con- produce forecasts with increased accuracy, lead tributes to social and economic benefit.24 time, and spatial resolution based on end user requirements The Power of Partnership25 introduced two im- ■ Improving hydrological forecasting including portant elements to the meteorological value flood modelling chain: the sector balance between public, private, and academic actors, and the maturity level of ■ Establishing/enhancing forecast verification each link (Figure 12). methods ■ Establishing routine cryosphere observations, The elements in the Power of Partnership value warnings, and forecast for selected sectors (for chain differ from Thorpe and Rogers (2021) example, hydropower generation) primarily in the name rather than substance. Examples of the activities that contribute to each ■ Introducing an impact-based forecasting sys- link in the value chain are shown in Figure 13. tem. 23 Thorpe, A., and D. Rogers. 2021. Creating Value in the Weather Enterprise. Washington, DC: World Bank. 24 Rogers, D., V. M. Staudinger, V. Tsirkunov, M. Suwa, and H. Kootval. 2022. Affordability of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. Washington, DC: World Bank. 25 World Bank. 2019. The Power of Partnership: Public and Private Engagement in Hydromet Services. Washington, DC: World Bank. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 17 ■ Observations are a foundational element draulic models well calibrated for the wa- of the value chain. Meteorological, cryo- tersheds in which they will be applied. sphere, and hydrological observations cre- ■ Forecasts link includes the production of ated as part of an NMHS public task are basic meteorological and hydrological recognized as high-value datasets and in forecasts and warnings. many countries are provided as open data ■ Tailored services occupy an important link for anyone to use and reuse.26 Within the and are nominally made for a single bene- NMHS, these data are integral to the pro- ficiary or sector—for example, aeronauti- duction of higher-value products and ser- cal meteorological services or hydrological vices. forecasting services. ■ Models and analytics link includes NWP, ■ Integrated services link indicates the shift of whether produced locally or accessed responsibility for the service to the benefi- through global and regional production ciary. These services are often coproduced centers, as well as hydrological and hy- by different entities. Integrated services in- clude, for example, impact forecasts and 26 Rogers, David P., and Vladimir V. Tsirkunov. 2021: Open Data: A Path to Climate Resilience and Economic Development in South warnings created collectively by disas- Asia? Washington, DC: World Bank; Rogers, D., V. Tsirkunov, A. Thorpe, A.-M. Bogdanova, M. Suwa, H. Kootval, S. Hodgson, ter management agencies, meteorological and M. Staudinger. 2021. The Level Playing Field and the Business services, and hydrological services working of Weather, Water and Climate Services. Washington, DC: World Bank. together. Figure 11. The meteorological value chain, shown in blue, utilizes new knowledge, shown in lilac, to create social and economic benefits shown in green Science Value and technology chain Benefits Integrated services Tailored services Science Science and technology Forecasts and economic innovation benefits Models and analystics Observations Source: Thorpe and Rogers 2021. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 18 2. Approach to Modernization Figure 12. Sector balance and maturity diagram based on hydromet value chain Numerical Issue Generate Tailored Business data Observations weather official forecasts services integration predictions warnings Value chain Notable Academia Size coding Color coding for relative Substantial for sectors Private importance and maturity of sector Dominant Public Advanced Intermediate Low N/A, unknown Source: World Bank 2019. Note: An advanced value chain is shown in this figure. Figure 13. Examples of the activities that contribute to each link in the value chain Business data integration Disaster risk management Health data integration Integrated • aviation data integration • impact-based heat health services • marine • impact forecasts and forecasts and warnings • agriculture warnings • impact-based air quality • energy • early action and response forecasts and warnings • insurance long term planning Postcode Aviation Marine Policy guidance Tailored scale weather weather services forecasts forecasts forecasts 0 – 15 day Weather Seasonal Climate prediction Forecasts forecasts warnings forecasts Numerical Data Artificial Machine learning Models and weather analytics inteligence analystics predicition National Other Private Business data Global data meteorological agency meteorological Observations and hydrological and crowd and hydrological network sourced data network Source: Thorpe and Rogers 2021. The notion of maturity, defined in The Power of significant ‘weak links’ in the value chain and Partnership, is a complementary way of exploring understand where interventions are likely to be the value chain. By highlighting the level of needed and have a positive impact. maturity, it is possible to identify the most Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 19 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure Chele La Pass. Photo credit: KiltedArab. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 20 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure 3.1 Observation Systems four automatic weather observing systems for avi- ation observations at airports. The weather stations The NCHM operates and maintains the national measure temperature, precipitation, relative hu- hydromet observation network that includes the midity, wind speed, wind direction (or wind run), following: solar radiation, and atmospheric pressure. Some of AWSs are co-located with Class A and Class C sta- ■ Meteorological station network tions, reducing actual sites of observations to 128 ■ Hydrological station network (41 AWSs are co-located with manual sites). The map in Figure 14 shows all locations with different ■ Flood/GLOF EWS combinations of manual and automatic stations. ■ Flood warning network. Class A stations are manually operated, in which the observers make two readings per day and report The NCHM maintains metadata records for obser- them to the HQ daily (by telephone) and monthly vation stations. (the first week of the following month). Data from these rainfall stations are manually transmitted via A careful assessment of not only the current but postal service once a month and are not necessarily also the future need for data is required when used for hydrological forecasting. The NCHM does planning an expansion or reorganization of an not operate a lightning detection network and it observation network, which should consider the does not subscribe to lightning data services from requirements of the users and constraints of the a service provider. There are no global atmospheric operators. The NCHM does carry out a strategic watch (GAW) stations operating in Bhutan. review of the temporal and spatial coverage of observations on a periodic basis to ensure continued Bhutan’s precipitation network faces challenges optimization of the design of the observing in adequately representing higher elevations system. Although the observation network and remote areas. The majority of the stations follows a plan based on user requirement, the are located at or below 2,999 meters, and a small plan is not regularly updated. Regular preventive percentage of them are at elevations equal to maintenance procedures for operational observing or higher than 3,000 meters. Thus, the higher equipment, to be carried out by trained personnel elevations are under-represented compared with once the network expansion has been undertaken, the lower elevations. Gaps in Bhutan’s precipitation will be a major condition for success. network are generally in the northern part of the country, which is remote, difficult to access, and The NCHM has access to global meteorological at high elevations. This is due to the difficulty observational data through the GTS. The subse- in locating, installing, and maintaining stations quent sections describe the status of the national at high elevations, although they represent a data systems. significant area of the country. 3.1.1 Surface Meteorological Observation Network All 80 AWS installations are prone to frequent interruptions of service mainly The NCHM does not have any meteorological sta- due to challenges in communication and tions that are of synoptic standard and data are network connectivity. These challenges not automatically transmitted to the HQ. The me- make identifying alternative communication teorological stations network of the NCHM operates channels a necessity. a total of 169 stations, comprising 80 automatic weather stations (AWSs), 20 Class A (agromet) sta- tions, 65 Class C (climate) weather stations, and Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 21 Figure 14. NCHM surface meteorological network N Legend Category AWS Class A with AWS Class C with Agro and Snow AWS AWS with Agro Class A with Agro AWS Class C with Agro AWS AWS with Snow Class A with Agro and Snow AWS Class C with Snow AWS Agro and Snow AWS Class C (Manual only) Major Rivers Class A (Manual only) Class C with AWS Basin Boundaries Source: World Bank. Figure 15. An example of a Class A The data are shared with the international meteorological station in Punakha aviation and meteorological community through an aviation meteorology communication system. AWOS data are used in a similar manner to Class A stations data and are usually included in synoptic analysis and provided to the international community through the GTS. While the NCHM operates 20 manual agromet stations, there is a need to expand automatic agrometeorological observatories with the capacity to record specialized agromet observations. These stations report data once a day with parameters mostly used for agriculture. For instance, these stations do not report pressure. Among the 20 stations, 8 are co-located with AWSs which measure parameters required for agriculture. However, for improved agromet services, there is a need to expand automatic Photo credit: Haleh Kootval. agrometeorological observatories with the capacity to record specialized agromet observations such The NCHM operates four automatic weather as soil moisture and evapotranspiration. observing system (AWOS) stations at airports. These stations measure weather conditions at the Climate data are collected but not used for near airport and are used by commercial pilots to help real-time synoptic analysis, nor are they sent to with decision-making related to flight navigation. the international meteorological community for Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 22 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure model assimilation. Like Class A stations, Class 3.1.2 Surface Hydrological Observation Network C stations are manned stations with observations The NCHM is responsible for observing hydro- recorded either on a chart or read nominally logical parameters. It operates multiple networks once every day at the same time (usually in the based on different applications, as described morning). These stations are considered climate below. stations, and observations are generally relayed back to the HQ by post. The data are simply a. Principal river gauging stations. There are 18 collected to document the climate and are available principal stations, sometimes called primary for assessing climate trends. Data collected include stations, which are advanced stations equipped minimum and maximum temperatures over the with staff gauges, a cableway and winch shed, past 24 hours and the daily rainfall, which are and an electronic water level recorder and are entered manually every day. These data are used staffed by full-time gauge and discharge readers by various stakeholders for planning. The NCHM who take hourly readings during the monsoon undertakes detailed climate analysis, including season and two readings a day during the lean monthly monitoring and assessing the annual season (Figure 16). Discharge measurement climate conditions. is taken from the bank—operated cableway using a suspended current meter once a week. The NCHM owns and operates an instrument Water level data and discharge results, after calibration laboratory. The laboratory was re- computation, are sent to the HQ at Thimphu cently equipped with temperature and humidity every month for analysis and archival. chambers with support from the Japan Interna- tional Cooperation Agency (JICA). Figure 16. Example of a principal hydrological station and current meter in Thimphu Photo credit: Haleh Kootval. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 23 b. Secondary river gauging station. There are way as AWLSs and send the data to a control 9 of these stations that are intended to be room and central database through a satellite operated only long enough to establish the flow (10 through iridium and 5 through Himawari) characteristics of their watersheds, relative to every 15 mins. These stations are positioned those of a watershed gauged by a principal, or at strategic locations along the river and at primary, hydrologic station. A secondary station the outlet of potentially dangerous lakes for consists of a set of staff gauges for water level a particular basin to have sufficient lead time reading. Discharge measurements are taken by to alert the downstream stations and control using the traditional float method every day. room of the rising water level. Apart from water level sensors, four stations are also equipped c. Automatic water level stations. There are 45 with AWSs. These stations are more than 10 automatic stream gauging stations (15 of them years old and are in normal working condition. colocated at principal river gauging stations) However, some stations suffer occasional errors equipped with automatic water level sensors due to freezing of water at the outlet of bubbler (AWLSs) with telemetry to sense, store, and pipes, resulting in a sudden spike on readings. automatically transmit the data to a central The NCHM intends to upgrade these stations database. The water level sensors are either by inclusion of seismic sensors and cameras, non-contact (radar sensors) or contact (pressure replacing bubbler with non-contact radars transducer to sense hydrostatic pressure). wherever feasible, and shifting from iridium to The data transmission occurs at 30-minute a different satellite to reduce operating costs. intervals. In addition, the station is equipped The NCHM also intends to install such systems with air temperature, relative humidity sensors, in other basins. and a precipitation gauge. These stations frequently suffer from transmission issues due f. Suspended sediment sampling stations. to poor mobile network coverage. Although There are 15 stations colocated at principal and the NCHM carries out maintenance annually, secondary stations. Samples are collected once transmission problems continue to persist, a day by means of a depth integrating sampler which require the NCHM to investigate the real using a cableway or handheld samplers. The issues and address the root cause. The options NCHM operates six labs for analysis of samples. of upgrading problematic sites to satellite- based telemetry should be explored. g. Spot low flow measurement. A total of 70 stations are operated during the lean period to d. Automatic river discharge measurement measure low flow levels in east-west tributaries, stations. There are two stream gauging stations by wading using propeller current meters. The equipped with river velocity sensors, recorders, east-west tributaries are a main source for and telemetry systems to transmit the irrigation, drinking water, and development of computed discharge data (using the manually mini/micro hydropower stations. keyed cross-sectional area and sensed velocity) to the central database. The data transmission h. Automatic water quality stations. Four interval is 30 minutes. Apart from these, the continuous monitoring stations have been NCHM operates one acoustic doppler current installed and operational at Dodeyna and profiler (ADCP) for updating rating curves or Lungtenphu on Thimchhu and at Gunitsawa validation of discharge measurement. and Bondey on Pachhu. These would measure physical water parameters (temperature, e. GLOF early warning stations. A total of 15 turbidity, electrical conductivity, pH value, and GLOF early warning stations function the same so on). Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 24 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure i. Flood warning stations in collaboration with ● Two AWSs (both having data transmission the GoI. The GoI and the RGoB collaborate in issues). operating some hydromet stations and sharing data. The GoI provides funds to the RGoB for the Some of the automatic and GLOF stations are operation of 17 hydromet stations within Bhutan colocated with manual stations, resulting in that are owned and operated by the NCHM. Data a smaller number of actual observation sites of these stations are shared with the Central compared with the total number of stations Water Commission (CWC) in India for flood operated. Figure 17 shows locations of observation forecasting and warning in the part of India that sites belonging to different categories. is downstream of Bhutan. The network is a mix of manual and automatic stations using global There are no groundwater monitoring stations system for mobile communications (GSM)- operated by the NCHM, and no ambient water based telemetry. Automatic stations often suffer quality is monitored. When the mandate for from transmission issues. The network includes measuring ambient water quality was transferred to the NCHM in 2022, the center received four kits ● Eight AWLS sites, out of which only three for water quality testing. However, the NCHM has are in a functional status (Chazam, Wang- not yet started water quality testing due to lack due, and Kurizampa; of capacity. The ambient water quality monitoring ● Four manual water level gauge sites; needs to be started after adequate training has been provided to the staff. Handheld automatic ● Three manual rain gauge sites; water quality instruments may be deployed for ● Two automatic rider discharge measure- in situ measurement of water quality, and the ment systems (ARDMS) (one is faulty and NCHM may start with one automatic sensor for one is working but there is a data transmis- each basin as a pilot and expand the network once sion issue); and enough capacity is built. Figure 17. Hydrological stations operated by the NCHM N Legend Category Principal (ARDMS) with Sediment Secondary (Automatic) Automatic River Discharge Principal (Automatic) Secondary (Manual) Automatic Water Level Principal (Automatic) with Sediment Secondary (Manual) with Sediment GLOF Water Level Principal (Manual) Major Rivers GLOF Water Level + AWLS Principal (Manual) with Sediment Basin Boundaries Source: World Bank. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 25 Based on a qualitative analysis, flood warning Department of Geology and Mines was responsible stations are located mainly along major for monitoring glaciers and glacial lakes in northern rivers, and the network is sparse in smaller Bhutan; this responsibility was transferred to the rivers. Several tributaries have no monitoring, NCHM in 2016. In 1996, it prepared an inventory especially at the international border with Tibet of glaciers and glacial lakes in major river basins in northeastern Bhutan. The NCHM needs to using maps produced by the Survey of India based expand the network in ungauged catchments or on air photographs of 1956 and 1958 and satellite supplement the monitoring system with modelling images. At the regional level, the International for small streams. In addition, rating curves need Centre for Integrated Mountain Development to be updated at least once every five years and (ICIMOD) has been monitoring decadal shifts the NCHM may consider deploying two more in glaciers in the Bhutan Himalayas based on ADCPs for discharge measurement. The NCHM satellite data. Since there is not much long-term may also consider deploying automatic sediment data and information on Bhutan glacial regime, the NCHM established two long-term benchmark monitoring sites upstream of major hydropower glaciers in Bhutan for annual monitoring. These stations, which can provide valuable information are the Gangju La glacier in the headwater of for operation of turbines and reduce maintenance Pho Chu Sub-basin and Thana glacier in the costs. The GLOF network should be expanded to headwater of Chamkhar Chu Sub-basin. In 2021, cover the remaining basins. CSD identified a new benchmark glacier in the headwaters of Thimchu. Figures 18 and 19 show 3.1.3 Surface Cryosphere Observation Network field work respectively on Gangju La Glacier in the Since 2016, the NCHM is responsible for northern border of Bhutan and Thana Glacier in monitoring glaciers and glacial lakes. The the northcentral part of the Bhutan Himalayas. Figure 18. Cryosphere field work by CSD on Gangju La Glacier (2020) Figure 19. Cryosphere field work at Thana glacier (2020) Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 26 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure There is limited capacity and instrumentation snow pillows for representative basins, to aid in support for cryosphere monitoring. There is snowmelt modelling. Cryosphere observations no separate network for real time monitoring include a GLOF EWS for three basins (Figure 20). of the cryosphere. There is no monitoring Table 2 presents a summary of surface monitoring for snow water equivalent in Bhutan, and it stations operated by NCHM. is recommended NCHM to consider installing Figure 20. Glacier and GLOF monitoring and early warning systems operated by the NCHM N Legend Category ▲ GLOF Water Level ▲ GLOF Water Level with AWLS Major Rivers Basin Boundaries Source: World Bank. Table 2. Summary of surface monitoring stations operated by the NCHM Observation system NCHM Surface meteorology stations (Class A) 20 Surface meteorology stations (Class C) 65 AWSs 80 Automatic weather observing systems 4 Principal hydrological stations 18 Secondary hydrological stations 9 Automatic water level stations (AWLSs) 45 Sediment sampling stations 15 Flood warning stations in collaboration with the GoI 17 Automatic GLOF water level stations 15 Automatic GLOF weather stations 5 Fire weather stations 0 Groundwater stations 0 Water quality stations (suspended sediment only) 15 Glacial monitoring stations 5 Snowpack monitoring stations 0 Cryosphere stations 9 Avalanche warning stations 0 Source: NCHM. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 27 3.1.4 Upper Air System is not so useful in the case of hilly rivers in gorges and boulders in rivers as is the case in Bhutan. The NCHM does not operate any upper air 3.1.7 Data Management and Archiving Systems: (radiosonde) stations. An application has Data Collection System, Quality Control/ been made under the WMO SOFF initiative for Assurance System, Storage, and Archiving funding for an upper-air station. However, the available SOFF funds are not sufficient to 3.1.7.1 Data Collection System cover all of the current applications, and the The NCHM uses HYDATA for quality control priorities are so support LDCs and SIDS, so of at least hydrological data. The field observer the application from Bhutan for SOFF support sends the data from the manual stations twice a may not be successful. day (9 a.m. and 3 p.m. Bhutan Standard Time) all seasons except during monsoon. During the 3.1.5 Weather Radar System monsoon, the observer sends hourly data to headquarters. The observations collected manually The NCHM does not operate any weather from meteorological stations are first entered into radars. a HYDATA database in the HQ at Thimphu and are then entered into Excel spreadsheets for a quality check. The data are later archived in Excel format 3.1.6 Remote Sensing System and in hard copy. HYDATA is an outdated database The Cryosphere Services Division uses remote system and recently a new central database sensing for mapping the extent of glaciers and management system known as Central Database glacial lakes, mass balance studies, and snow Management System (CDMS) has been introduced covers. Presently, some of the products that NCHM which is supposed to store all meteorological and use are Sentinel satellite imageries, Landsat and hydrological data. Migration from HYDATA to this Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer new system is in progress. products. No images from polar-orbiting meteorological satellites are received by the Agromet data are collected and transmitted to NCHM. the NCHM HQ by telephone. For agromet stations (Class A), data recording is done by NCHM staff Weather satellite data has the potential to provide in all 20 districts. Field staff transfer data to the information on subjects like precipitation HQ daily at 3 p.m. Bhutan Standard Time (9 a.m. patterns, while other satellites can track UTC) by telephone (maximum and minimum changes in river morphologies. However given temperature, rainfall, cloud coverage, and relative the available resolution of precipitation data from humidity). The staff record more details, such weather satellites (about 10km by 10km) and the as wind speed and sunshine hour, but they only extreme nature of the terrain in Bhutan (narrow, communicate to the HQ what is required for the steep valleys; significant local effects contributing weather forecasts. In addition, data on rainfall, to rainfall accumulations), it would be unlikely storms, and lightning are conveyed by telephone that satellite data will add much information when a severe weather event occurs. The entire and understanding in this area. In any case the observation sheet is sent to the headquarters at satellite date would need to be bias corrected using the end of every one or two months, and a field in-situ measurements, so it can only ever be a book is maintained at the site. At the headquarters supplementary source of information. Similarly, in Thimphu, data are first entered in a register the use of satellite data to detect changes in river and then used as a guidance to prepare the next morphologies is more suited to alluvial plains, but day’s forecast. These observations are not put Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 28 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure into the forecast model. Forecasters refer to the control centers and subsequently to the HQ via WRF model outputs as well as other products from high-frequency radio. This information is then regional and international centers as guidance to passed on to partners in India (West Bengal prepare their forecasts. No data from AWS are used and Assam). For automatic stations, data come for forecast preparation. NCHM needs to work on directly to the server in the HQ through general integrating its own data in its forecast procedures. packet radio service (GPRS) and Global System for Mobile (GSM) communications standards used by In general, real-time data from the AWS is not short message service (SMS). available in the forecast office and thus no real- time data are used for forecast preparation. The For real-time monitoring, multiple systems are entire observation sheet is sent to the HQ at the in operation (flood warning stations, AWLSs, end of every one or two months, and a field book GLOFs, AWSs, and so on), and all use different is maintained at the site. At the HQ in Thimphu, servers, different systems, and protocols. NCHM data are first entered in a register and then used should consider consolidating all real-time as a guidance to prepare the next day’s forecast. systems into one server that feeds into the central These observations are not put into the forecast data management system. Apart from that, for model. Forecasters refer to the weather research manual stations, recording data on the register and forecasting (WRF) model outputs as well as and sending them at the end of the month for other products from regional and international digitization results in a time lag between the time centers as guidance to prepare their forecasts. of monitoring and data availability. This can be The NCHM needs to work on integrating its own reduced by introducing mobile apps available to data in its forecast procedures. In addition, data the gauge reader personnel, who can enter the data on rainfall, storms, and lightning are conveyed by at the time of monitoring and make them available on the server in near real time, making it available telephone when a severe weather event occurs. for modelling and forecasting applications. This can also reduce efforts devoted to digitization and For Class C stations, the observers maintain provide software-based quality control. a field book and send the observation sheets to Thimphu every three months which are 3.1.7.2 Quality Control and Data Storage System subsequently stored in an Excel database. The observers are part-time recruits. These data are While hydromet data have been collected for for the record and can be used for climate data decades, at present, there is no comprehensive analysis and for monsoon outlooks, cold waves, data quality assurance system. Hydromet data heat waves, and cyclones. For these manual have been available since about 1997, and nearly stations, data loggers and other spare parts are all collected data have been digitized. Some of stored in the HQ, where the only quality checks the climate observations go as far back as 1985. for collected data are carried out. Limited data Discontinuous rainfall data dating back to the processing or analysis is done using the data 1950s are available from a few locations. No from these manual stations. Observers stationed quality control was performed on data collected at the sites conduct minor maintenance. A team before 2010. A few basic tools for quality checks of technicians from the field offices and officials are used for data collected since 2010. The data from the HQ conduct the annual maintenance. quality is controlled manually by the data manager When there are major technical issues, the same upon reception and archival of the data. For teams attend as needed. hydrological data, the real-time data from AWLSs are stored in the CDMS. The data from AWLS are For flood warning stations, the hourly water shared once the responsible officer checks the level information is passed on to the principal quality. Historical data are stored in both digital Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 29 and paper forms. The data from the manual sensors, installation and upgrading of selected hydrology stations are stored and quality checked hydromet stations, and so on. The NCHM endeavors using HYDATA. Plotting of observational data is to keep all operational measuring equipment and done manually. sensors in working conditions compliant with international standards. The NCHM does not use the services of a WMO regional instrument Environmental Management. For managing center (RIC) or a national standards laboratory/ the pristine environments on Bhutan, access institution due to lack of capacity. Table 3 shows to high-quality data is essential in monitoring the number and type of stations where annual climate change and its impacts. A single data repository for weather and other environmental maintenance work was carried out during 2019– data is ideally needed. Standardization of data 2022. The maintenance team could not cover the formats into more user-friendly formats will stations located along the southern border due to also be essential, as is the open sharing of climate COVID-19 restrictions and minor maintenance data. Publishing and redistributing NCHM were carried out by the respective field observers. data on other websites and in other apps (for At present, the NCHM has a budget of BTN 10 example, using the iFrame concept or similar) million (approximately US$125,000) for the O&M would also help enormously in extracting the of the observation network. full value to society of this essential data. 3.2 Modelling, Analytics, and Forecasts 3.1.8 O&M of the Existing Observation Network 3.2.1 Meteorological Models The NCHM does not have a sufficient number of qualified maintenance technicians to cover 3.2.1.1 Global and Regional NWP Systems the entire observation networks. While the NCHM has a program of regular maintenance and The NCHM uses NWP products from global models calibration of the observation instruments, there made available through the WMO Severe Weath- is a need for detailed and proper guidelines for er Forecasting Programme for South Asia. These carrying out maintenance and for its scheduling. include the European Centre for Medium-Range The Maintenance Plan is not regularly updated Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Oceanic and the NCHM does not implement reliability and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/ Nation- measures based on quality assurance/quality al Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) control routines and procedures for observations Global Forecast System (GFS), Japan Meteorological of weather, climate, and hydrology. The annual Agency (JMA) Global Spectrum Model via GTS, and maintenance work related to the observing India’s National Center for Medium-Range Weath- network includes, among others, troubleshooting, er Forecasting (NCMRWF).In general, the NCHM replacement of sensors/equipment, calibration of accesses NWP products that are rather limited be- Table 3. Annual maintenance work for the hydromet observing network in 2019–2021 2019–2020 2020–2021 2021–2022 S. No. Station category Station type maintenance maintenance maintenance 1 GLOF EWS Automatic 15 15 15 2 Hydrological stations Manual 19 20 15 3 Hydrological stations Automatic 42 36 25 4 Meteorological stations Manual 20 20 20 5 Meteorological stations Automatic 82 15 15 Source: Annual Report 2021 and NCHM. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 30 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure cause these models give a global outlook which cal levels and has a horizontal resolution of 28 km. provides some guidance for preparing forecasts The WRF data period used for the analysis is from but is not specific to local scenarios. Furthermore, January 2016 to December 2018, with a 12 UTC run. except for products from NCMRWF from which both data and images are received, only images are 3.2.2 Hydrological Models available from websites of the other agencies which cannot be used for analysis. The NCHM mostly uses the hydrologic engineering center (HEC)-based models to calculate runoff 3.2.1.2 Limited Area Models for producing hydrological forecasts. As it is not mandated to carry out any flood mitigation While the NCHM carries out objective verification work to prevent flooding, the NCHM does not of the model outputs as well as the public fore- use hydraulic models for replicating flow, water casts, no data assimilation or post-processing is transport, and distribution processes. The systems performed. The NCHM runs Environmental Mod- available include the following: elling System Weather Research and Forecasting (EMSWRF) version 3.4 for daily weather forecast- a. Flood decision support system (FDSS). A FDSS ing with a lead time of three days (72 hours). The was developed in collaboration with the Regional EMSWRF has been installed and operational since Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System November 2015 with support from the Finnish Me- for Africa and Asia (RIMES) and the World Bank. teorological Institute (FMI) under the project of The system uses a three-day meteorological Strengthening Hydromet Services for Bhutan. The forecast generated by RIMES and transforms EMSWRF is a local area model which runs every it into runoff for different sub-basins using six hours for initial conditions of 00, 06, 12, and the HEC Hydrologic Modelling System (HMS) 18 UTC with a nested domain of 45 vertical levels, Model. This runoff is then routed through with the parent domain and nested domain having rivers using lumped routing parameters. The horizontal resolution of 15 km and 3 km, respec- deterministic forecast is available for the tively (Figure 21). The boundary and initial condi- next three days for 10 selected locations. The tions used for the model are from the GFS model, results are also available through a webpage, NCEP, NOAA, which is a coupled model (atmo- maintained by the NCHM. sphere, ocean, land/soil, and sea ice) with 64 verti- Figure 21. Nesting domain configuration: The automation for downloading forecasts, 15 km and 3 km domains running the model, and updating the website is carried through the FDSS, which is a custom- built interface and uses scripting for automation of processes. A new system called WIMES is now being introduced as FDSS considering that NCHM is now trained in this system. The NCHM has some capacity in running the models but limited capacity to use the DSS interface. The DSS is a basic system that does not use any hydraulic modelling and currently does not incorporate any real-time data for data assimilation. Since the NCHM has ongoing support from RIMES, it should continue to build capacity in DSS and upgrade the system to incorporate real-time monitoring, improved Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 31 interfaces, scenario analysis and management, and provides discharge information at any point dissemination systems through email and SMS, on the streams. Apart from that, it provides stochastic/ensemble modelling, and expansion color coding for streams based on the return to other basins. The major advantage of this period of stream flow. There is a need to update system is that it is based on freely available the system by validating it using observed data models, providing better sustainability over and improving the interface to generate flow proprietary software, which requires continuous for different return periods. Stakeholders like expenditure for licenses and support from the hydropower and road bridge designers often developer for upgrading the system. There is a depend on historical flow in small streams for need to consider upgrading the DSS platform designing various structures. Since long-term to freely available off-the-shelf DSS platforms data for small streams are often not available, like the HEC RTS, which are updated regularly this system, once calibrated against discharge and provide access to global online resources, monitoring sites on major rivers, would be a such as user forums for troubleshooting and useful tool for such stakeholders. capacity building. 3.2.3 Meteorological Forecasting and Warning b. Flood hazard mapping. The NCHM uses the Systems HEC HMS and HEC River Analysis System (RAS)-based systems to develop flood maps for The NCHM operates a 24/7 forecasting system. It various return periods based on historical data, prepares forecasts by making use of observational which are further used for planning and hazard and model data, including those NWP data mapping. The center has enough capacity to available on the GTS/WIS as described below, and use these models. the NCHM’s own model output available in the SmartMET workstation installed in 2017 with the c. Although a streamflow prediction tool was support of the FMI, under the National Adaptation developed in collaboration with ICIMOD, this Programme of Action project funded by the United system is not yet calibrated and validated Nations Development Programme (UNDP). No using historical data and can only be used for impact-based forecasts or nowcasts are produced. outlooks and not for quantitative forecasts. It The forecast schedule is shown in Table 4. is a snapshot of a global system, where it uses a Examples of weather forecast, summary issued 10-day ensemble forecast generated by ECMWF at 4 p.m. daily, and the weekly weather report, Table 4. Schedule of forecast produced by the Weather Forecasting Section, NCHM Time Forecast type and dissemination channel 04:00 hours 24-hour weather update (Email, Website and Facebook) 3-day weather forecast to World Weather Information Service (WWIS) (email) 06:00 hours 1-hour weather forecast for aviation (email) 10:00 hours 3-day weather analysis and report (email, website, and Facebook) 12:00 hours 3-day weather forecast to WWIS (email) 1-hour weather forecast for aviation (email) 16:00 hours 24-hour weather forecast and summary (TV, radio, email, website, Facebook, WhatsApp) 18:00 hours 1-hour weather forecast for aviation (email) 20:00 hours 3-day weather forecast to WWIS (email) 22:00 hours 24-hour weather update (email, website, and Facebook) Weekly Weather Report Every Friday Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 32 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure and verification of previous week’s temperature SWFP, Japan Meteorological Agency, Korea and rainfall forecast are shown in Figures 22, Meteorological Administration, meteograms from 23, 24, and 25 respectively. To produce the daily sites neighboring Bhutan, MetGIS (an Australian forecasts, the NCHM forecasters use information commercial company), Windy charts produced from a number of sources including India (IMD, using ECMWF data, and information from the Indian Monsoon data Regional output, NCMRWF), Thai Meteorological Department. To produce Figure 22. Weather forecast issued at 4 p.m., valid for 24 hours Northern North-Eastern Central Gasa Lhuntse Yangtse Trongsa Bumthang Partly cloudy with light rain Partly cloudy with light rain Partly cloudy with light rain Partly cloudy with light rain Partly cloudy with light rain Tmax/min: 19/07 Tmax/min: 29/16 Tmax/min: 24/09 Tmax/min: 23/09 Tmax/min: 20/06 Western Haa Paro Thimphu Punakha Wangdue Phodrang Partly cloudy with light rain Partly cloudy with light rain Partly cloudy with light rain Partly cloudy with light rain and wind gust and wind gust and wind gust Partly cloudy with light rain and wind gust Tmax/min: 18/06 Tmax/min: 23/08 Tmax/min: 23/09 Tmax/min: 32/18 Tmax/min: 30/0176 Figure 23. Weakly weather report Region Weather outlook issued Weather observed Northern Partly cloudy to partly cloudy Partly cloudy to partly cloudy with light rain with light rain North-Eastern Partly cloudy to partly cloudy Partly cloudy to partly cloudy with light rain with light rain Central Partly cloudy to partly cloudy Partly cloudy to partly cloudy with light rain with light rain Western Partly cloud Partly cloudy South-Western Partly cloudy to partly cloudy Partly cloudy to partly cloudy with light rain with light rain South-Eastern Partly cloudy to partly cloudy Partly cloudy to partly cloudy with light rain with light rain Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 33 Figure 24. Verification of previous week’s temperature forecast Tmax Tmin (Forecast vs observation deviation) (Forecast vs observation deviation) N NE C W SW SE N NE C W SW SE 4.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -2.0 -4.0 -4.0 7 Apr 8 Apr 9 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 7 Apr 8 Apr 9 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 2023 2023 • Highest forecast temperature was 32.0 °C for South-Western Phuntsholing on 12th and 13th April, however, the highest temperature observed was 34.0 °C on 11th April in Phuntsholing. • The highest deviation in maximum temperature was -3.3 (under forecast) in the North-East on 10th April. The best forecasts with 0.0 deviation was in the North (8th and 13th April), and the North-East (9th and 13th April) • Lowest forecast temperature was 1.0 °C for Western Haa on 13th April, but the lowest temperature observed was -0.5 °C in Haa on 11th April. • The highest deviation in minimum temperature was 4.5 (over forecast) on 10th April in the Northern region. The best forecasts (deviation 0.0) was on 9th and 11th April in the South-West. Figure 25. Verification of previous week’s rainfall forecast • Light rain was forecast for all the regions except for the West. 24 hr. accumulated rainfall (2023) N NE C W SW SE 8 6 4 2 0 7 Apr 7 Apr 7 Apr 7 Apr 7 Apr 7 Apr 7 Apr 2023 • Light rain was forecasted for all the regions except for the Western and South-Western regions. • Highest rainfall of 15 mm was observed in Zhemgang on 10th April. three-day temperature forecasts for 20 stations, for 20 cities in Bhutan. The Standard Operating observation data are combined with WRF and Procedures (SOPs) on Weather Forecasting and GSM (Japan) model data. To produce rainfall Dissemination of Forecast Products and Services forecasts, model data from Windy charts and the guide and determine the daily forecast production WRF model are used. In addition, Meteoblue (a operations at the Weather Forecasting Centre of private company) produces rainfall predictions the NCHM. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 34 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure Extended range prediction (ERP) for Bhutan is NWP/EPS digital data and products from a range of prepared with support from IMD. The system global centers; the required hardware and software uses the CFSv2 coupled model (atmospheric (license) for data handling, NWP post-process- and ocean model) which runs once per week ing and calibration (model output adjustment to (Wednesday), with 16 ensemble members at a country conditions), assimilation of observational horizontal resolution of around 25 km, and the data from the national network, and production of products are made available the following day site-specific and impact-based forecasts. Access (Thursday). The ERP products for Bhutan are to uninterrupted broadband internet is essential generated every Friday. The ERP is produced for moving from deterministic to ensemble pre- for two climate variables in Bhutan: rainfall and diction systems, which is critical for probabilistic temperature. forecasting and estimating the uncertainty in the weather forecasts as well as the likelihood of an The NCHM has no operational system for extreme event. Necessary tools for the modern- seasonal or long-range forecasting. An annual ization of forecasting process include a forecast- monsoon outlook is prepared using inputs from er workstation, implementation of real-time data global producing centers (GPCs). The climate management, forecast process monitoring and verification, NWP post-processing, observation predictability tool (CPT) for downscaling of global data assimilation, nowcasting, and impact-based seasonal products is used and is discussed in the forecasting techniques. Training is required both South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF). in the use of the tools and interpretation of new The final product is a consensus forecast from products as well as in the overall forecasting pro- the SASCOF. The NCHM needs to develop an cess to be supported through SOPs. operational system for seasonal forecasting, for agriculture and for other stakeholders. The NCHM participates in the WMO SWFP and, as a member of the SASCOF, has access Agriculture. Farmers need week-long to extensive research and guidance on climate forecasts (and especially warnings of extreme forecasts in the monthly to seasonal range, and weather) to help them to gather in crops and already disseminates these to many users. There keep them safe (for paddy cultivation the rice is also an increasing amount of such guidance is often left in the fields to dry, and if untimely freely available from global NWP centers such as rain arrives the crop can be totally lost). the ECMWF. This area of service requirement is Month-long forecasts can help farmers to likely to grow significantly in the coming years make choices relating to quick-growing crops. as the skill of the model guidance at these time The needs of agriculture suggest that a suitable ranges increases, potentially providing more approach might be to carry out a pilot project, valuable guidance to many key users. Starting supported by agricultural extension workers, in the summer 2023, for example, ECMWF will based around bringing more extended forecast provide extended range forecast guidance up to information to farmers. Lightning detection is 46 days ahead from an ensemble of 101 members, also an important requirement. updated daily with global coverage at a resolution of approximately 36 km. As part of its longer-term modernization plans, 3.2.4 Hydrological Forecasting and Warning it is necessary for the NCHM to establish a com- Systems prehensive process for operational weather fore- casting as is practiced in other well-functioning The NCHM does not provide forecast-based modern national forecast centers of similar size riverine flood warning. The Hydrological and complexity. This will include access to the Forecasting and Warning Section (HFWS) under Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 35 HWRSD produces flood forecasts by viewing the Bhutan has a significant hydroelectrical sector; regional systems like the Flash Flood Guidance forecasts of water levels in rivers are also of System (FFGS) and ICIMOD’s Stream Flow significant interest to other sectors such as Forecasting System and issues advisories when agriculture, construction, road engineering, and high levels in rivers are observed. However, it tourism as well as for day-to-day water resource does not issue forecast-based riverine flood management. The NCHM cooperates with other warnings. Water levels, which are observed at relevant regional and global institutions and varying frequencies across seasons, are relayed to NMHSs such as RIMES, ICIMOD, and IMD as well the HQ. The information is placed on a whiteboard as the WMO at the international level to improve and shared throughout the division. The division its hydrological warnings capability. Although the issues flood advisories based on a routing scheme NCHM contributes to improving the adaptation using water level and discharge data from capacity of water resources systems in a changing higher elevation hydrological stations to warn climate through some research in hydrology and downstream communities of high water. surface water availability, it does not predict hydrological droughts. Some verification of flood forecasts is performed, but it is not done regularly Figure 26. Thimphu, the capital of Bhutan, is located in a flood-prone valley or systematically. Flood Control. The issues concerning flood control are much the same concerns as those noted earlier for hydropower. The need is for better statistics for extreme rainfall events, which would incorporate likely climate change impacts on the weather (especially the rainfall) regimes. Inflow forecasts for flood management are needed. A Decision Support System (DSS) for Flooding is required. There are also challenges in regard to water resource management—as much good information as possible is needed. 3.2.5 GLOF Monitoring, Modelling, Forecasting, and Warnings The NCHM carries out a program of monitoring the snow and glaciers in the territory of Bhutan The FWS under HWRSD collects and shares data including glacier mass balance calculation for with India for use in monitoring downstream three benchmark glaciers every year (Thanza floods. While information from these stations is glacier in the central-north, Gangjula glacier shared with the HQ in Thimphu, it is not used in the western-north, and Shodug Glacier) and bathymetry surveys of glacial lakes in the Gangkar to provide flood warning within Bhutan in a Puensum region and Lunana region every two systematic way. years or whenever it is needed. While flood warnings are currently issued by the NCHM on a detect-and-warn basis, routine The NCHM’s GLOF EWS is based on flood detection forecasts of river levels are not disseminated. as a result of an outburst. The NCHM carries Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 36 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure out a GLOF monitoring program and produces for avalanches to occur (low risk, intermediate GLOF early warnings along the Punatsangchu risk, high risk) need to be defined depending and Chamkhar-Mangde basins. There is an SOP on the status of the snowpack and ambient for GLOFs in the Punakha-Wangdue valley and meteorological conditions. HWRSD also monitors, through the flood warning system, a few glacial lakes (Luggye, Thorthormi, Tourism. Since the beginning of tourism in Rapstreng, and Baytsho), where the water level is 1974, Bhutan has targeted high value tourists measured with an automatic system as a part of to minimize the impacts on the environment. GLOF EWS in the Punakha-Wangdue Valley. The There is a need for more extended range / system does not use any models for quantification monthly / seasonal forecasts for tourism but relies mostly on measured water levels planning and also warnings of potentially using automatic instruments and telemetry. The information is received on servers and monitored dangerous events for trekking etc. A two- at flood warning centers/control rooms. If water week forecast for making go/no go decisions levels exceed critical limits, the information is on treks would be a very helpful development. transmitted through high-frequency radio and Better education for those leading and the public is warned through sirens installed at participating in treks to encourage them to strategic locations near populated areas. pay closer attention to the weather forecasts would also be very useful. To strengthen the GLOF EWS, it is necessary to continue improving the GIS catalogue and regular surveys of the lakes with outburst potential, by 3.2.7 Flash Floods Forecasts using many sources of information—including While the NCHM participates in the FFGS, high-resolution satellite data and field surveys. it does not routinely monitor conditions for Subsequently, an analysis of the occurrence triggering landslides and mudflows. Flash floods and intra-annual distribution of mudflows and are fast-developing adverse hydrometeorological major rock and icefalls should be carried out to phenomena, with significant potential danger to determine the location and period of occurrence of the population and economy of Bhutan. The NCHM such events and their impacts. participates in the FFGS and issues general flash flood warnings by analyzing the global and regional 3.2.6 Avalanche Risk and Warnings systems and adapting these to national conditions based on actual weather conditions and forecasts. At present, there is no avalanche warning system However, the center does not routinely monitor at the NCHM. Avalanches pose a serious threat to conditions for triggering landslides and mudflows infrastructure and human lives. Their occurrence to issue warnings for these phenomena although is a result of meteorological conditions including the FFGS has a well-tested landslide module. precipitation, temperature, building of snow cover over time, and thawing processes as well as terrain and exposure. All these determine the risk for avalanches to occur. An avalanche warning 3.3 Services Delivery system would determine the degree of risk of 3.3.1 Public Weather Services avalanches to occur based on models containing essential meteorological variables, the status of The Meteorological Services Division (MSD) is snow cover conditions, and possible triggers for responsible for providing PWS, severe weather an avalanche. Based on infrastructure and human warnings, meteorological data services, aviation lives at risk, zones for avalanche warning systems meteorology services, agrometeorology services, need to be established and different levels of risk and climate change information. The National Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 37 Weather and Flood Warning Center (NWFWC), are written in simple form to help recipients with Thimphu, operates on a 24/7 basis and monitors the the interpretation of the weather systems. The weather conditions of all the 20 dzongkhags. The NCHM currently runs the WRF model (six runs per daily short-range forecast for the 20 dzongkhags day at 00, 6, 12, 18 UTC) that produces forecasts includes a precipitation outlook with maximum for three days ahead. However, the center needs and minimum temperature. The NCHM issues to work on parameterization schemes and data three-day weather forecasts once a day via the assimilation for improved forecasting skill. The national television, print media, social media, and model is set up as nested with two domains, the the NCHM website (https://www.nchm.gov.bt) and inner domain with 3 km and the outer domain provides three updates via email to the climate- with 15 km resolution. The initial conditions sensitive stakeholders, along with 24-hour city are used from the GFS and no observation data forecasts for a selected location in each district. are assimilated. Manual verification of outlooks In addition to these channels, email, SMS, and and temperature forecasts are carried out at the toll-free telephone are also used to disseminate end of the year. However, there is no validation forecasts upon request. Mobile phones are used and verification system for the WRF model. The to respond to public requests for information, NCHM needs to work on providing quantitative although a mobile application does not exist. precipitation forecasts, rather than just qualitative outlooks. It is questionable whether running its own limited-area model represents a sensible At present, the NCHM does not have the strategy for an organization such as the NCHM or capacity to provide a formal and structured whether the resources would be more effectively weather warning service. Based on severity used by downscaling and bias-correcting the of weather, the center issues weather output from the leading global NWP models over advisories and weather updates as needed. the territory of Bhutan. During extreme weather events, information is provided to the media through face-to-face The NCHM does not implement the WMO discussions or reports sent by email. However Guidelines for Education and Training of the ambition should be to develop a full Multi- Personnel in Meteorology and Operational hazard Early Warning System, which would Hydrology (WMO-No. 258) requirements for PWS satisfy the Early Warning for All (EW4ALL) personnel and thus does not meet the appropriate initiative called for by the Secretary-General education and competency requirements. Since of the United Nations in March 2022. August 2020, with the support of IMD, the NCHM’s WCSD issues medium-range outlook (10 days The NCHM staff also appear on Bhutan ahead) and temperature forecasts on a weekly Broadcasting Service (BBS) to provide briefings basis which are displayed on the NCHM website. during extreme weather events. The NCHM is The NCHM contributes operational weather setting up its own TV studio through the support of information for eight cities to the WMO’s online a project by JICA for making video clips to enhance World Weather Information Service (WWIS). dissemination and reach of EWS. Establishment of Forecasts are verified daily in a qualitative form a structured weather and flood warning system in against observations. The center does not operate Bhutan is a priority. a user satisfaction program through obtaining feedback from users on the usefulness of the The NCHM’s weather forecasts are deterministic, forecasts through, for example, opinion surveys and currently it does not have the capability to and user groups on a regular or systematic basis, produce probabilistic forecasts. Although no although such information is gathered when impact-based forecasts are produced, forecasts workshops are organized. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 38 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure 3.3.2 Water Resources and Flood Warning and mass balance studies on benchmarked glaciers, Flood Forecasting Services monitoring glacial lakes for GLOF hazards, preparing and regularly updating inventories of glaciers Monitoring and forecasting of the state of rivers, and glacial lakes, updating the list of potentially lakes, and river reservoirs are among the main dangerous glacial lakes, conducting studies on tasks and services of the NCHM. The NCHM has melt contribution from glaciers to surface runoffs installed and operates the GLOF and rainstorm in major river systems, and assessing hazards flood early warning services along the river basins associated with cryosphere. The center provides of Punatsangchu, Mangdechu, and Chamkharchu. data and information generated through the above It has also installed and operates an FDSS27 for activities as part of cryosphere services to the Amochhu and Wangchu basins. general public and line agencies. Currently, due to limited technical expertise, manpower shortages, At present, the EWS operates on the basis of and financial constraints, services provided by CSD detecting and issuing warnings, but the NCHM are limited to the abovementioned activities. is planning to integrate flood forecasting with more lead time into the EWS. As part of 3.3.4 Climate Services services provided, the NCHM is also exploring the implementation of impact-based forecasting The NCHM does not conduct regional climate for weather and floods. The staff are capable of research or operational climate forecasting carrying out flow modelling and flood forecasting. due to limited capacity and resources. Seasonal Under the UN Early Warning System for All, the forecasts are issued for the summer and winter NCHM plans to extend the GLOF/rainstorm flood monsoons, based on the consensus statement EWS to all river basins. from the SASCOF. The NCHM participates in SASCOFs and since 2016 has been organizing Other hydrological services provided by the National Climate Outlook Forums (NCOFs) but NCHM are (a) historical hydrological data has not yet established a National Framework services, (b) flood monitoring, (c) flood advisory, for Climate Services (NFCS). The NCHM provides (d) hydrological/flow forecasting, and (e) flood climate information services, including monthly hazard modelling based on the HEC HMS and and annual climate monitoring reports, seasonal HEC RAS. The NCHM plans to conduct water forecasts, and annual statistical information and resource assessments in the future. Likewise, the analysis of the climate extremes. This information NCHM plans to largely enhance the value of flood is available on the NCHM website. In addition, as forecasting services through the adaptation of, and mandated by the Climate Change Policy, the NCHM migration toward, impact-based flood forecasting has been working on the climate projections services. The NCHM also intends to explore the for Bhutan and monitors climate change and suitable global and regional products and best climate variability. However, no regional climate practices to significantly enhance its hydrological downscaling and regional or subregional climate forecasting capabilities. research is conducted by the center. Similarly, no operational climate forecasting (for example, monthly and seasonal) services exist due to 3.3.3 Cryosphere Services insufficient capacity and resources. Records of the Cryosphere services are relatively new to the number of users receiving climatological products NCHM. The Cryosphere Service Division focuses as well as details of data users, including name its main activities on monitoring glaciers through and purpose for which data is used, are kept. The NCHM refers to Websites where products from 27 The establishment of the FDSS was supported through the GPCs and regional climate centers for long-range Hydromet Services and Disaster Resilience Regional Project supported by the World Bank. forecasts are displayed but does not have access to Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 39 data itself and the use of these products is limited. to airlines, it does not issue Terminal Area Forecasts The center has digitized almost 90 percent of (TAFs) or Significant Meteorological Information existing climate records and digitization of the (SIGMET) bulletins to airlines and does not remaining historical records is ongoing. receive Operational Aeronautical Meteorological Data (OPMET). The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) products are received on an operational 3.3.5 Agrometeorological Services basis by the NCHM, and these provide a basis The NCHM provides agromet advisories and for issuing flight documentation to international forecasts services for farmers in collaboration departures. However, there is no capacity to with the DOA under the MoAL. The DOA in produce low-level Significant Weather charts to collaboration with NCHM operates the ADSS. support internal flights and helicopter operations, The NCHM provides three-day quantitative which by nature of the terrain and the frequent forecasts to generate agromet advisories and challenging weather are already at an elevated agrometeorological information and forecast risk. Given the challenges with maintaining services for farmers in the form of seven-day commercial airline access to Bhutan, a three-day outlooks obtained directly from the global/ forecast for flight scheduling would be very useful regional models. The center provides outlooks as weather conditions cause the cancellation of for both temperature and precipitation, but the many flights. The Aviation Meteorological Section farmers need quantitative precipitation forecasts completed the routine (as well as needs-based) and temperature. The NCHM does not have an maintenance of all the weather observation operational seven-day forecasting system and stations in the airports in 2021. relies on what is available from regional centers on the internet. No indexes are provided, and no crop modelling is performed. A drought monitoring and Aviation Weather Services. Bhutan is a warning system is being implemented in a pilot member of the International Civil Aviation phase. The NCHM does not operate an EWS for heat Organization (ICAO) which is the regulatory waves, cold spells, or frost formation. The DOA authority for civil aviation worldwide However, is developing a roadmap for agrometeorological NCHM does not currently fulfill the regulatory services delivery in collaboration with the NCHM. requirements of ICAO as they apply to the provision of aviation meteorological services. 3.3.6 Aeronautical Meteorological Services Bringing aviation weather services up to full ICAO-mandated standards would contribute The NCHM is the designated aeronautical both to increased safety and increased meteorological service provider within Bhutan. reliability of commercial aviation operations The Aviation Meteorological Section maintains and in Bhutan. This is an area of NCHM operations operates airport weather stations at all aerodromes that requires significant strengthening. of the country, Paro International Airport and three domestic airports (Bumthang, Gelephug, and Yongpula), to provide meteorological information There is no cost recovery of aeronautical for international and domestic flights as well as meteorological services implemented and no QMS for helicopter services. for aeronautical meteorological services exists. Consequently, the NCHM is not ISO certified for While international meteorological data and provision of aeronautical meteorological services. information are required for flight planning The center does not implement the WMO-No. and safe, economic, and efficient air navigation, 258 requirements for aeronautical meteorological the NCHM’s capacity and resources are limited. personnel by meeting competency or education Although the NCHM provides flight documentation and training requirements. However, in 2022 a Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 40 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure Figure 27. Paro Airport, the main aviation gateway into Bhutan, has a very challenging approach flight path Photo credit: Gerald Fleming. fully qualified meteorologist was posted to Paro of observational data rather than a central server Airport with the task of working toward the where all observations reside for processing. There development of aviation forecast service provision is a need to establish a generic meteorological and to full ICAO standards. No routine feedback is hydrological data center, which could comprise gathered from aviation users. a number of different elements, such as servers to receive AWS data, servers to automatically receive synoptic station reports, servers for 3.4 ICT weather satellite reception and processing and Although the NCHM transmits observations for weather radar reception and processing, an from remote stations in real time for around integrated file and message switching system (to 100 stations, it lacks a fully functioning handle data communication internally and with meteorological and hydrological data center the WIS network), a forecast operations database, which would act as the collection and storage data visualization systems (for the forecasters hub for meteorological data and products. The to use), a meteorological production system, a overview of the ICT architecture of the NCHM data archive, a climate data management system covers data flow from observing networks to (CDMS), and a high-performance computing data management, forecast preparation, and (HPC) facility for the running of local-area NWP dissemination. The forecasts prepared using models (if this is deemed necessary in the absence model guidance are disseminated to the relevant of a substantial regional computing facility). stakeholders through email, social media (for Similarly, the hydrologists need to be able to example, Facebook), and the national mass media. collect and view data in real time from the gauges The NCHM uses different servers for different types and other measurement devices placed in rivers Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 41 and streams. In addition to the specialized needs relatively new, can be upgraded after 5 years. of the NWFWC, such a data center will also include an email server, a shared file server, print servers, b. AWS and Automatic Weather Logging and and similar equipment that supports normal office Retrieval (AWLR) networks, operated on GSM/ working. Appropriate ICT security systems, such GPRS-based communication, suffer frequent as firewalls, will also need to be accommodated. failures due to multiple reasons, including weak signal strength, change in technology by mobile The NCHM utilizes various visualization operators, shifting of towers due to mobile platforms such as SmartMet and Himawari operators’ commercial reasons, weakened satellite, while being connected to the GTS/ signal strength during heavy rainfall events, WIS. The NCHM operates SmartMet (a common and excessive load on the networks during visualization operating platform provided through hazardous weather situations as they share the FMI), the Himawari satellite visualization, and the same network with the public, resulting a flood forecasting warning visualization system. in failure during peak demands. The NCHM The NCHM is connected with the GTS/WIS with has recently carried out some maintenance Tokyo being the primary Global Information activities, but a large number of AWLSs and System Centre (GISC) hub, connected at a speed of AWSs are still unable to transmit. 8.87 Mbps for download and 13.35 Mbps for upload. Binary Universal Form for the Representation Although the NCHM should continue to (BUFR) and Synop formats are used for receiving operate both satellite- and GSM-based observation data via the GTS/WIS. Data from one telemetry, there is a need to migrate all critical observation station are transmitted to the GTS, meteorological and hydrological stations while the NCHM is in the process of including six used for forecasting, EWS, and modelling more stations in this process. It is also connected to to satellite-based telemetry. Satellite-based the internet at a speed of 2 Mbps. There is no radio telemetry offers several advantages including facsimile broadcast in operation at the NCHM. wide coverage, robustness, flexibility, long- distance connectivity, and data accuracy and Due to the presence of multiple networks, the timeliness. The remaining stations (which are NCHM maintains different telemetry systems for not critical for forecasting and EWS but are different networks: important for maintaining national database and ambient environmental parameters) can a. A close observation shows that there is a time continue to operate on the GSM network for lag of more than 2 hours between the time of optimizing the operating cost. monitoring and when data are available on the system for decision-making/warning, requiring an upgrade of the GLOF network. The Apart from telemetry systems, there is a need to GLOF network operates on satellite systems, semi-automate the existing manual monitoring with 10 stations on the iridium satellite and system. In that intervention, the monitoring the remaining 5 on Himawari. This time can would still be carried out by gauge readers, but be reduced by upgrading servers and software, they can use mobile applications to enter data as newer technologies/systems have become immediately after taking readings. In this way, available since these systems were installed in data can be made available on central servers in 2012. There is a need to upgrade these 10 stations near real time, and software-based quality control in the next five years, as they are already more can be carried out on server or within the app. than 10 years old and have outlived their design Alternatively, gauge reader personnel can take life. The remaining five stations, which are a geo-tagged time-stamped photograph of the Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 42 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure gauge and upload it to the server through the app, technicians for maintenance of equipment such which would act as a validation tool in case of any as AWS and AWLS networks. These systems discrepancy in data during analysis. are becoming increasingly sophisticated and maintaining them requires in-depth training for the relevant technical staff. It is critical to 3.5 Quality Management Systems provide in-house courses in line with the WMO competency requirements to ensure that all staff The NCHM does not have a QMS in place to govern become familiar with new meteorological tools its management and technical operations. The and software. In addition, training should also NCHM recognizes, however, that the adoption of be provided at regional or international training international data quality standards, methods of facilities, and twinning with more advanced observation, communication, and data handling NMHSs should also be pursued. is of the utmost priority. SOPs were developed in 2020 for all the operational activities of the At present there is no established mechanism NCHM; these need to be updated to reflect more for the training of NCHM staff, nor are there any recent changes in divisional responsibilities. institutional arrangements, involvement of aca- demic institutions, or a curriculum of topics to be 3.6 Research covered. New recruits are given at least a week- long introductory training by the NCHM. NHCM No active research is being undertaken aiming staff are trained in various hydromet applica- at understanding of meteorology, hydrology, tions whenever the financial resources are secured and the cryosphere in Bhutan. The NCHM created through external sources. There are no GIS special- the TSRD to promote culture of research on ists in the NCHM, but there are a few engineers and hydrometeorology and water resources, climate officers who have taken basic and intermediate GIS change impacts, and so on. The NCHM started courses. Most personnel learn the GIS on their own an annual Bhutan Hydromel Journal to promote based on their job requirements. The IT system of research work since 2022. There is a lack of the NCHM is looked after by only one ICT person- research direction, human resources, technology, nel. It is evident that the NCHM lacks capacity in and tools required for significant research work. ICT systems. Aside from acquiring additional ICT staff and procuring hardware and software and ad- 3.7 Education and Training ditional training, outsourcing of selected IT tasks and applications is an option in the future. Building capacity through training activities and cooperation with other WMO members is A generic staff training plan has been initiated indispensable for a modern NMHS such as the by RCSC, but the NCHM does not have its own NCHM. These activities should be conducted on structured training plan for professional, a regular and continued basis and include access technical, and support staff in place, and there to new skills for new and existing staff. A major is no regular in-house training program. The challenge for the NCHM, as for many other NCHM has access to and uses e-learning materials NMHSs, is to create a professional and technical for certain WMO online courses. The NCHM workforce with access to training opportunities participates in regional forums and training that will enable them to take advantage of activities including those offered by the WMO rapid advances in many areas of meteorology, and RIMES. As part of its continuous educational particularly advances in information technology programs and refresher courses for technical (IT), modelling, and forecasting. It is equally staff, an annual refresher course is conducted at important to have a sufficient number of trained the NCHM. An annual GLOF awareness program Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 43 is implemented along the Punatsangchu and melt water contribution and development of flood Chamkhar-Mangde river basins. By contrast, no hazard maps. As required laboratory facilities training is conducted for mid- and high-level for undertaking such research do not exist in management positions. There are no twinning or the NCHM, the NCHM carries out this work in attachment arrangements with other NMHSs or collaboration with Sherubtse College under the organizations, and use of WMO regional training RUB. Memoranda of understanding have been centers (RTCs) is infrequent. In-country training signed between the NCHM and some of the RUB opportunities with universities and other relevant institutes. As part of this agreement, the NCHM institutions of higher education are not available. has been receiving intern students from those institutes for practical training. The ongoing trend of emigration adversely affects the NCHM. In terms of progress in 3.8 Partnerships and Investments capacity building for the NCHM, there were a number of capacity-building measures through The NCHM benefits from projects implemented knowledge transfer that were implemented by development partners and donors in the form for the staff as per the recommendations of of strengthening the technical and technological Roadmap 2015. However, the issue faced by capacity of the organization (for example, the center at present is that trained staff have installation of automatic meteorological stations) resigned or left on long-term leave, and this and human resources capability (training, seriously affects the service delivery of the seminars, conferences). These include projects center. implemented through the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the World Bank. Another critical area of capacity development is in The NCHM collaborates with RIMES, ICIMOD, the provision of aviation meteorological services. and other regional organizations as part of As noted, a young meteorology graduate has enhancing its capacities and capabilities for recently been posted to Paro Airport with the task improved early warning services and service of developing aviation forecast services, including delivery. The NCHM does not have license the provision of TAFs, TRENDs, SIGMETs, and agreements with global NWP centers for access products such as low-level significant weather to various graphical or digital model products, charts for domestic and other short-range flights. although the need to have such an agreement, As the NCHM has no experience whatsoever in for example, with NCMRWF (India) is recognized. this aspect of meteorological service provision While for the WRF model, freely available data and therefore no relevant institutional knowledge, from NOAA are used, products from centers such a support/mentoring system from experienced as ECMWF would be of utmost benefit, especially professionals outside Bhutan, perhaps through a for providing guidance for long-range forecasting. twinning arrangement, needs to be put in place. Another example of engagement with partner organizations is in the health sector where the While no academic courses in meteorology or NCHM has been engaged in health-related studies hydrology are available in Bhutan, the NCHM with the Ministry of Health and the World Health collaborates with academia. There are no Organization (WHO). An analysis of the economic academic courses in meteorology or hydrology benefits of enhancements in the capacity and available in Bhutan, either at the undergraduate or capability of the NCHM was performed in 2014 for postgraduate level. Technical collaboration with a number of sectors in Bhutan by the FMI and the the Royal University of Bhutan (RUB) has been Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, but a strengthened in carrying out research related to similar study has not been repeated since. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 44 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure The NCHM is a co-chair of the South Asia There is strong collaboration with regional Hydromet Forum (SAHF). The SAHF, launched institutions such as RIMES and ICIMOD. RIMES in 2018, brings together hydromet experts has developed an FDSS and an ADSS. The NCHM from all South Asian countries for sharing developed a streamflow prediction tool with knowledge, building capacity, and aligning ICIMOD, and there have been numerous activities national-level technical assistance with regional to monitor snow and glaciers in Bhutan in engagement. The proposed activities will focus collaboration with ICIMOD. on (a) enhancing the Knowledge Hub (for example, fully operationalize the Forecasters Workbench including knowledge management 3.9 Summary: Current Capacity and Maturity and integration of regional and global model of the NCHM forecasts, cloud services for the Knowledge Hub, Using the value chain approach (refer to Chapter 3 Data Exchange Platform, and allied information for detailed explanation of the value chain model) and exchange/sharing platforms), (b) strengthening activities in each link of the chain, the existing regional engagement (for example, Forecasters operational capacities of NCHM are illustrated in Forum, Working Group, Executive Council, and Figure 28. SAHF annual meetings established as a part of the SAHF), and (c) building capacity (for example, The major gaps in the observation network NWP, impact-based forecasting, observational of the NCHM are in the lack of upper air and network, and capacity enhancement). The SAHF is weather radar coverage. The observation implemented by RIMES and financed by the World network of the NCHM (observation link) comprises Bank, initially with funding support through the 169 meteorological stations, 99 hydrological European Union South Asia Capacity Building for stations (inclusive of 15 GLOF/rainstorm water Disaster Risk Management Program and by the UK level stations, and 17 flood warning stations in Aid, administered by the Global Facility for Disaster collaboration with the GoI), and 15 sediment Reduction and Recovery. Now, continued support stations. There is also a need for synoptic stations, is provided through the World Bank-funded more hydrological gauges, glacier and snow Climate Adaptation and Resilience for South Asia observations, and AWSs. An intermediate maturity and United Kingdom Foreign, Commonwealth, level can be assigned to the hydrometeorological and Development Office (UKFCDO). observation link. The GoI and NCHM cooperate in the operation of The models and analytics link is at a low intermediate some hydromet stations and sharing of data. The maturity level. This is because, although the GoI provides funds to the NCHM for the operation NCHM has access to model results from ECMWF, of 17 hydromet stations of interest that lie within NOAA/NCEP(GFS), JMA (GPS), and IMD-NCMRWF Bhutan. These stations within Bhutan are owned and runs EMSWRF version 3.4 for the daily weather and operated by the NCHM. Data of these stations forecasting, the local models are crude, the use of are shared with the CWC in India for flood model data is basic (for example, no use of EPS), forecasting and warning in the part of India that and the relevant staff have little or no training is downstream of Bhutan. The network is a mix of in properly employing model guidance. Although manual and automatic stations using GSM-based the NCHM performs objective verification of the telemetry. In addition, ERP for Bhutan is prepared model outputs, it does not assimilate any of its with support from IMD. The ERP products for own observational data into the models and Bhutan are generated every Friday. The ERP is currently there is no post-processing. produced for two climate variables in Bhutan: rainfall and temperature. The forecast link is considered to be low on the Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 45 Figure 28. Schematic of the NCHM current value chain Models and Tailored Integrated Observations analytics Forecasts services services Advanced High intermediate Intermediate Low intermediate Low Unknown/none ICT infrastructure Education and training maturity level. The NCHM runs a 24/7 weather centers of similar size and complexity. This will forecasting operation and produces short-range include access to the NWP/EPS digital data and (6–24 hours) and medium-range (two to six days products from a range of global centers, the and monthly) forecasts on a regular basis, with required hardware and software for data handling forecasts issued for 7–10 days ahead upon request; (license), NWP post-processing and calibration produces PWS forecasts up to six days ahead (model output adjustment to country conditions), and provides some limited interpretation of the data assimilation into the forecast models, and forecasts to users; issues advisories of hazardous production of site-specific forecasts. It will also weather (but no formal warning system is in require significant capacity development and place); and performs daily qualitative verification training for the team of PWS weather forecasters, of weather forecasts against observations. none of whom have any formal training in However, the actual information issued is meteorology. As a member of the SASCOF, the broad and general. At present, no impact-based NCHM has access to extensive research and forecasting or nowcasting is performed by the guidance on climate forecasts in the monthly to NCHM, and a major gap exists in the provision of seasonal range and already disseminates these to aviation forecast services. many users. There is also low capacity for hydrological The tailored services link is at the low intermediate forecasting. The center produces flood forecasts maturity level. The tailored services link in the and issues flood warnings when high levels value chain is used to include any service to which in rivers are observed. Water levels, which are value has been added beyond the forecasts link. observed at varying frequencies across seasons, This maturity level is justified mainly because the are relayed to the HQ. While flood advisories are hydrological services are at a more basic level than currently issued by the NCHM on a detect-and- the meteorological services. The NCHM issues warn basis, routine forecasts of river levels are not three-day public weather forecasts once a day disseminated. and 24-hour city forecasts for a selected location in each district. The NWFWC, Thimphu, operates It is necessary for the NCHM to establish on a 24/7 basis. It issues routine daily weather a comprehensive process for operational forecasts through various dissemination channels weather forecasting as is practiced in other including radio, television, social media, and well-functioning modern national forecast the NCHM website. Since August 2020, with the Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 46 3. Current Status of NCHM Services and Infrastructure support of IMD, the NCHM issues extended-range the hydrologists will need to be able to collect forecasts on a weekly basis. Forecasts are verified and view data in real time from the gauges and daily in a qualitative form against observations. other measurement devices placed in rivers and Surveys are conducted to assess user satisfaction streams. The NCHM has been recently connected relating to the usefulness of the forecasts. Seasonal to the WIS/GTS, with support from JICA, and data forecasts are issued for the summer and winter from one observation station are transmitted to monsoons. The NCHM provides weather and the GTS, while it is in the process of including six climate information to DOA to develop agromet more stations in this process. services for farmers. The Aviation Meteorological Section maintains and operates airport weather The education and training link is at the low stations at all aerodromes of the country—Paro intermediate level because while new recruits International Airport and three domestic airports. are given some short introductory training by The following hydrological services are provided the NCHM, there is no established mechanism of by the NCHM: (a) historical hydrological data training NCHM staff, nor are there any institutional services (1990 to present), (b) a warning system arrangements or involvement of academic for GLOFs and rainstorm floods (warnings are institutions. The level of formal training for staff only issued once high water flows are observed), in meteorological science is low. However, NHCM (c) flood monitoring, (d) flood advisory, (e) flood/ staff are trained in various hydromet applications GLOF hazard mapping and zonation, and (e) whenever the financial resources are secured hydrological/flow forecasting. through external sources. The integrated services link is currently not Some reflections on the 2015 Roadmap: Many occupied since there is no coproduction of of the recommendations contained in the earlier services, even with the relevant government Roadmap, prepared with support from the agencies, including the Department of Local World Bank, remain valid. Some of them, such Governance, Department of Geology and as improving the ICT assets and strengthening Mines, and Department of Surface Transport. the hydrometeorological and climate service Collaborations follow the traditional tailored provision, are ongoing activities that would services approach. MHEWSs are missing and need apply to almost any National Meteorological and to be established. Hydrological Service. NCHM has undergone a number of institutional and structural changes The ICT link is at a low level of maturity for the in the last few years, and a national policy for hydrometeorological component. Although the hydromet is also now in place. Other more specific NCHM uses SmartMET workstation, a common recommendations, such as improving basic visualization platform, and a data management weather and hydrological forecasting, improving system, it lacks an integrated meteorological the meteorological contribution to aviation safety, and hydrological data center comprising a and developing end-to-end warning services number of different elements, such as servers are still very much works-in-progress and have for various purposes, a forecast operations probably not advanced as far as was hoped at the database, a meteorological production system, time the earlier Roadmap was completed. The and a data archive. These components would inadequacy of the staffing and the O&M budgets act as the collection, routing, and storage hub remain as critical challenges. for meteorological data and products. Similarly, Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 47 4. Roadmap for Modernizing and Strengthening NCHM’s Services and Systems Cleaning the riverbed in Paro. Photo credit: nmessana. 48 4. Roadmap for Modernizing and Strengthening NCHM’s Services and Systems There is a growing need among the stakeholders capacity; and (c) modernizing observation, ICT, and users in various weather, water, cryosphere, and forecasting infrastructure. This principle and climate-sensitive economic activities in and the hydromet value chain concept guide the Bhutan for data, advisories, impact-based activities proposed in the subsequent sections forecasts, and information. Frequency and of this roadmap to respond to the challenges intensity of natural hazards are likely to be highlighted in Chapter 3. They aim to strengthen exacerbated by the impacts of climate change. the institutional capacity of the NCHM, modernize These increasing demands for weather and water those elements of the infrastructure and facilities data will pose challenges as well as provide that require upgrading, and advance the delivery of opportunities for the NCHM to make optimum use hydromet services and MHEWS to the population of emerging new technologies to play its role in of Bhutan and weather-dependent sectors. responding to these major challenges. Achieving this modernization program over a While monitoring, recording, and providing period of 5–10 years in the roadmap requires observational data by the NCHM has been anticipation and proactive measures to be occurring over the past several decades, delivery taken by the NCHM with adequate funding of advisory services is still relatively new and technical support on several fronts. To and is an area of importance recognized by start with, it should be acknowledged that while the NCHM and is beginning to be developed. modernization of the NCHM infrastructure During the preparation of this roadmap, gaps in and capacity building of its personnel remain the service provision capabilities of the NCHM the responsibility of the center, the expected were identified. The activities proposed in the increase in hydrometeorological extremes in roadmap are meant to raise the standards and the future requires an integrated approach by capabilities of the NCHM for products, services, the NCHM and other relevant stakeholders and and service delivery to the highest possible level government agencies. The approach should go to discharge its public task to the satisfaction of beyond modernizing observing and forecasting the users. While endeavoring to provide products systems and embrace integrating the services of of quality, diversity, and coverage to users, the the NCHM with those provided by other agencies NCHM faces challenges including (a) shortage to prepare for anticipatory and early actions in of a sufficient number of well-trained technical response to extremes in a holistic manner. This staff; (b) insufficient access to appropriate new is not a trivial task and should be initiated as part technologies, technical assistance, and guidance; of a modernization program; it is also consistent (c) keeping pace with the growing demand for its with the aims of the United Nations’ ‘Early services; (d) unsuitable premises for the conduct Warning for All’ (EW4ALL) initiative which puts of scientific, technical, and operations work; and forward the ambition of providing meaningful (e) inadequate funding for sustained O&M of its early warning services to all citizens on the globe services and systems. by 2027. This approach has been introduced using the concept of ‘integrated services’ in the This roadmap represents the first step in a roadmap, which highlights the key importance planned long-term engagement of the RGoB on of co-design and co-development of service hydromet for enhancing the current capabilities delivery with government entities responsible for of the NCHM. The three essential components 28 disaster management, health, water resources for a holistic modernization program for any management, and transport, among others. NMHS are (a) enhancing service delivery system; (b) strengthening and building institutional 28 Rogers and Tsirkunov 2013. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 49 is migration from threshold-based forecasts The roadmap offers two approaches, short to impact-based forecasts to provide enhanced and medium term, described below in Sections service value. Other changes may require longer- 5.2 and 5.3, for enhancing the capacity of term and more substantial investments. Examples the NCHM with detailed descriptions of each include enhancing the meteorological and approach, including their respective costs. hydrological observation networks, introducing The short- and medium-term approaches are new observation, ICT and forecasting technologies, interdependent and should be conducted in a and capacities for impact-based forecasting. phased manner to seamlessly build on each other and contribute to the overall goal of the These recommendations are expected to inform modernization progress. Thus, the medium- the five-year planning cycle of the RGoB. While term plan assumes the accomplishment of the roadmap offers a strategic framework to objectives achieved in the short term and advance the scientific and technical capabilities of builds on them. They contribute to a system the NCHM for the next decade and beyond, the full capable of producing and delivering (a) timely details of achieving such an ambitious and far- warnings of extreme and hazardous events and reaching vision (beyond what is described below) their potential impacts and (b) weather and will need to be worked out and detailed in an hydrological including cryosphere information implementation plan once the roadmap has been and forecasts for operations and planning in approved by the NCHM management. weather, climate, and hydrologically sensitive economic sectors, particularly agriculture, energy, transport, water resources, and 4.1 Short-Term Modernization (2024–2029) disaster risk management. The focus under this time frame would be mainly on strengthening the center’s capacity to access The two modernization approaches aim to and use available tools and technologies, acquiring guide the NCHM toward a more systematic a certain amount of essential new equipment, basis for setting strategic and forward-looking and establishing critical infrastructure to enable priorities to improve its service delivery and organizational modernization. contribute to the development of the national economy by producing location-specific, well- Introduction of significant resources is needed articulated, and usable information not only if the required level of modernization in five on hazards but also on their impacts on target years is to be achieved. The estimated cost of areas and population. These approaches highlight implementation of modernization over five that certain steps can be taken quickly and with years is approximately US$14.9 million. This rather limited investments and effort to enhance includes capital investments in the new NCHM the utility of weather, climate, and hydrology center (US$2.8 million), observation and ICT information for users. Examples include training infrastructure as well as O&M costs (excluding of the NCHM technical staff to access, use, and labor costs) of approximately US$2.2 million and apply readily available products and guidance from capacity-building costs of US$1 million. Some of various regional and global centers for improved this funding resource, typically for capital items forecast and warning services and apply remote of infrastructure, can come through the different sensing techniques to improve their forecasting development agencies. However, much of it, capabilities; streamline forecasting and ICT especially that related to the costs of building the procedures and practices; and develop robust and skill of staff members and recruiting a sufficient reliable means for communicating with users and number of highly skilled professional staff, will gathering their feedback. A major consideration need to be borne by the RGoB itself as it requires Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 50 4. Roadmap for Modernizing and Strengthening NCHM’s Services and Systems Figure 29. Schematic of the NCHM value chain after medium-term modernization intervention Models and Tailored Integrated Observations analytics Forecasts services services Advanced High intermediate Intermediate Low intermediate Low Unknown/none ICT infrastructure Education and training an increase in (present and future) expenditure on less the sort of facilities that would be needed for salaries and related personnel expenses. Similarly, water quality work and sedimentation analysis. the government will need to dedicate sufficient There are no specific facilities for accommodating resources for the effective O&M of the improved training nor those for hosting meetings and operational infrastructure. conferences. Upon implementation of the short-term An added challenge arises from the need for modernization priorities, the result of the resilient 24/7 operational services and ensuring interventions toward modernization is expected to that adequate staff are always available to sustain be in the state of the value chain links as depicted these services. Experiences during the COVID in Figure 29, showing higher levels of maturity. epidemic, in Bhutan and elsewhere, exposed the difficulties of maintaining operations during these interruptions to the normal functioning of 4.1.1 A New HQ Campus for the NCHM society—interruptions that can also be caused At present, the physical facilities of the NCHM by severe weather events or seismic occurrences. do not, in any sense, support the particular These latter are precisely the occasions when needs of a scientific, technical, and operational fully functioning meteorological and hydrological organization that is focused on public services that services are most needed by society to ensure the should be underpinned by a strong organizational safety and security of citizens. The clear inference identity and a visible public presence. The NCHM is that a sufficient number of NCHM staff should HQ functions are accommodated in standard office reside near the operational offices, as the best buildings within a government compound close way to ensure their availability and the resilient to downtown Thimphu. The operational forecast provision of essential services. offices (meteorology and hydrology) are located in an adjacent building (NWFWC) that has significant To enable modernization and proper development drawbacks with regard to providing operational of the organization, a new, purpose-built spaces; the operations rooms are rather small and campus is required for the NCHM.29 This are divided by supporting columns, effectively breaking up the working space into even smaller 29 Bhutan - Technical Guidance Note for Establishment of National units. There are no laboratory facilities for the Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology Head Quarter, National Weather, and Flood Warning Centre and Scientific Facilities maintenance and calibration of equipment, much (RGoB and World Bank 2023). Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 51 should comprise specific buildings devoted to design, and development of such a campus will administration, operational service provision, necessarily take a number of years, but it can be technical laboratories, educational and meetings staggered, with the key buildings (HQ building, spaces, a variety of other support functions, NWFWC, calibration laboratory, sediment and and residential accommodation for sufficient water quality laboratory, store, and equipment staff that will guarantee resilient services. The maintenance workshop) put in place first and the campus should also allow for the siting of weather remaining buildings following later. However, the observing equipment, including provision for envisioning and construction of this facility should balloon launches to gather upper air data. It would go hand in hand with the rest of modernization clearly be impossible to accommodate all these outlined below, with the ambition that, within the diverse needs on the existing site, and the space decade, the transformation of the NCHM to a full- required will be such that a suitable site is unlikely capacity NMHS will be complete. An indicative to be found near the center of Thimphu. preliminary breakdown of the cost is shown in Annex II. Multiple benefits will flow from the provision of a well-designed HQ campus for the NCHM. Key activities At a technical level, the facilities will support the operation, maintenance, and calibration Establish NCHM Headquarters, 24/7 National of equipment that comprises the essential Weather and Flood Warning Centre (NWFWC) meteorological cryosphere and hydrological and Scientific Facilities that will include: observing network of the country. At an ICT level, ■ Calibration Laboratory, Sediment and it will provide a ‘nerve center’ for the collection Water Quality Laboratory of meteorological and hydrological data and ■ Store and Equipment Maintenance its exchange with the global community. At an Workshop operational level, it will facilitate the provision of top-quality meteorological and hydrological ■ Establishment of Aviation offices at products and services to the citizens of Bhutan, domestic and international airports including the critical warning services. At a scientific ■ Establishment of Hydromet Information level, it will support excellence in meteorology Centre and climate lab and hydrology through providing opportunities ■ Establishment of training center for experts to gather and exchange knowledge; indeed, it could well host a center of excellence ■ Acquiring vehicles for stations in key subjects such as mountain meteorology or maintenance glaciology. At a broader level, it will support food The envisioning and construction of this security, hydropower, transport, tourism, and facility should go hand-in-hand with the two other key economic activities through facilitating time frames for modernization, with the aim more extensive and more targeted meteorological to transform NCHM to a full-capacity NMHS and hydrological services. These services will within the decade. help minimize the vulnerability of the Bhutanese economy to shocks deriving from natural hazards 4.1.2 Observation and assist the nation in consolidating its status as a middle-income country. To enhance the effectiveness and reliability of Bhutan’s observing network, modernization The cost of the construction of the NCHM offices efforts should prioritize cryosphere observations, and related scientific and technical facilities synoptic network rehabilitation, and the is estimated at US$2.8 million. The planning, automation of observations to improve data Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 52 4. Roadmap for Modernizing and Strengthening NCHM’s Services and Systems quality, frequency, analysis, and forecasting in fully turbulent streams using (fluorescent) capabilities. Modernization of the observing mobile tracer techniques. The NCHM plans to network in Bhutan should include cryosphere upgrade, with assistance from JICA, five AWSs to observations with a focus on snow and glaciers and synoptic stations by adding the required sensors pay attention to the rehabilitation of the existing and connecting them to the GTS. In addition, synoptic network to safeguard compatibility according to the NCHM, to meet national needs, an and interoperability between different types of optimal observing network is required, amounting equipment and sensors. Modernization also needs to five new synoptic stations, five AWSs (including to address the automation of observations with snow pillows) at high altitude, with a view to a view to eliminating or greatly reducing data forecasting avalanches, assessing GLOF risks, and collection and transmission errors, increasing the monitoring changes to the contribution of water frequency of available observation data, facilitating from high-altitude mountain regions. Likewise, 10 analysis, storage, and retrieval of information, new hydrometric observing sites are required. In introducing nowcasting, and improving very- addition, one upper air station should be installed short-range forecasting. in the five-year time frame. Any plan to modernize the observing network Automation of monitoring, transmission, must also pay close attention to the long-term and reception of data is an urgent need for sustainability of the network, and consider how to meteorological, hydrological, and cryosphere overcome the challenges currently experienced. networks. It is assumed that all stations will These would include addressing critical become fully operational and produce reliable assumptions such as that NCHM build sufficient data in accordance with established data quality capacity to maintain the stations (engineers, standards. All observations will be transmitted technicians, extended warranty contracts), how automatically to the central collection center. the issues with connectivity are to be solved, the Digitization of historical records will be continued. types of capacity that will be essential to operate Attention has to be paid to interoperability of the the expanded network, etc. new and existing stations with regard to different manufacturers, challenges to the maintenance of The observation link after a five-year intervention instruments, and comparable standards of data will be at the high intermediate maturity level. quality as well as interoperability in terms of Observation network design is an ongoing and communication services. complex process with the addition of new stations as required and the rehabilitation of existing The possibility also exists to develop widespread stations. In making these decisions, many factors network of “second grade” stations, developed have to be considered such as access to stations, in conjunction with partners and possibly hosted reliability, reporting accuracy, costs, O&M in schools and on the premises of stakeholders. requirements, durability, and site specifications. However, this would involve considerable effort by Data management is a key element of an NCHM in both setting up the networks, ensuring observation network for proper storing, validating, that adequate standards in maintenance and analyzing, and reporting of all data that are being calibration are achieved, in curating the resulting generated and collected on a continuous basis. dataflows, and in housing the data. Some European Met Services (Norway, Switzerland, The majority of this expansion should take place UK) have used this technique. This approach has in the mountainous regions of the country, where also been applied in Africa through the TAHMO there is a great need for increasing the number network and the experiences suggest that long- of stations and capabilities to measure discharge term sustainability of such networks needs to be Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 53 carefully considered, and the levels of ambition ■ Install five real-time sediment monitoring need to be realistic. The production of 3D Printed systems upstream of major hydropower stations Automatic Weather Stations (3D-PAWS) has been ■ Procure two ADCPs for regular discharge mea- tested in South Asia and is used widely in other surements and update rating curves regions as well. These are low-cost stations and ■ Procure two mobile spectrofluorometer instru- could possibly be used to augment the core NCHM ments for discharge measurement using flu- station networks. orescent tracers (Uranin) in highly turbulent mountain streams and rivers Key activities ■ Expand the GLOF EWS for basins where this is Climate and weather observation network: required ■ An upgrade of the existing observation ■ Enhance existing GLOF and early warning network; installation of one upper air monitoring network station, five new synoptic stations, five new Calibration of hydromet equipment: cryosphere observing stations ■ Install one humidity sensor calibrator, one rain ■ Upgradation and standardization of existing 20 gauge calibrator, one solar radiation calibrator, Agrometeorological stations (Class A stations) sunshine recorder calibrator Aviation observation network: ■ Install one current meter calibrator and water ■ Upgrade AWOS at domestic airports level sensor calibrator ■ Install AWOS at international airport ■ Develop user manuals, check lists and guide- ■ Integrate AWOS with Centralized Database lines for data collection, quality management, Management System maintenance and forecasting Cryosphere monitoring network: ■ Install three AWS (or other appropriate tech- 4.1.3 Models, Analytics, and Forecasts nology) with capabilities of observing snow An important aspect of strengthening the capacity water equivalent/ snow depth of the NCHM is to increase the lead time and im- ■ Set up at least one glacier runoff model in a sub prove the quality of its forecasts, develop methods basin for forecasting, especially of the hazardous hy- drometeorological phenomena, and establish ap- ■ Establish five new cryosphere monitoring sta- proaches and methods for assessing the economic tions (weather stations, AWS) benefits of its activities. Modelling, building, and ■ Increase number of benchmark glaciers for long implementing forecasting techniques for the rap- term monitoring from three to four glaciers. id-onset adverse hydrological phenomena (for ■ Develop systematic observations of volume example, flash floods, mudflows, and GLOFs) are changes of selected glacier lakes including among the major goals of the NCHM. bathymetric surveys The models and analytics link will be at the Hydrological monitoring network: intermediate maturity level through enhancing the ■ Upgrade from existing GPRS/GSM to satellite- forecasting procedures and practices to include based telemetry for critical AWLS and AWS sites access to, and use of, other regional and global and FWS models, especially the post-processing and ■ Introduction of six manual and handheld auto- calibration of global models to the conditions matic water quality monitoring units for ambi- of Bhutan. Attention will be mainly focused ent water quality monitoring on improving modelling capabilities in water Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 54 4. Roadmap for Modernizing and Strengthening NCHM’s Services and Systems availability assessment, flash floods, mudflows, and Severe Weather Forecasts (SIGMET) for avalanches, and GLOF risks in these areas as well Aviation as in overall impact-based flood forecasting. As ■ Initiate Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) part of this effort, developing and sustaining verification system (WRF) a catalogue of mountain lakes with outburst ■ Operationalize common operating platform potential through use of high-resolution satellite (COP-SMART MET) imagery and application of GIS tools is a crucial activity at this stage of modernization. This also ■ Parameterize NWP (WRF) relates to the mapping of high-impact and risk Hydrological and flood forecasting: areas of devastating avalanches. ■ Develop grid-based forecasting tools for hydrology The forecasts link will be further enhanced to the intermediate maturity level with improvements ■ Acquire a forecast visualizations system and innovations. It will build on current (or upgrade the existing system) capabilities of forecasters by upgrading the tools ■ Develop sectoral-based forecasts for visualization and manipulation of data and ■ Enhance hydrological models for hydrological products by forecasters, introducing the EPS and forecasting the concept of probabilistic forecasting, enhancing the understanding and full use of NWP/EPS ■ Initiate hydrological forecast verification data and products for short- to medium-range ■ Develop dynamic riverbed modelling forecasts, introducing impact-based forecasting (incorporation of sediment transport) techniques, and nowcasting. Forecasting and ■ Expand flood forecasting and early warning assessing water availability for the agriculture and system to other basins (WIMES) energy sectors, GLOFs, flash floods and mudflows, and long-range streamflow are hydrological and Snow and Glacier modelling: cryosphere areas of focus for development and ■ Model snow and glacier melt water enhancement. ■ Develop enhanced and quality-controlled datasets on snow and glacier melt and initial Key activities modelling of seasonal snow and glacier melt Weather and climate forecasting: ■ Develop glacier mass balance modelling ■ Further access and use other regional and global ■ Develop glacier lake breach modelling models; introduce data assimilation, post- processing, and calibration of these models 4.1.4 Services Delivery ■ Introduce EPS and probabilistic forecasting The tailored services link will reach the ■ Initiate weather forecast verification intermediate maturity level. The services will be enhanced by paying closer attention to the users’ ■ Introduce impact-based forecasting needs and their level of satisfaction with services ■ Develop nowcasting systems of the NCHM and collecting their feedback. Closer ■ Operationalize medium range forecasting (7- collaboration with DLGDM will be established, for 10 days) example, in developing/strengthening joint SOPs and exercises. Improved services will be provided ■ Initiate long range climate forecasting to the agriculture and energy sectors. Climate (monthly, seasonal) services will be enhanced by producing climate ■ Conduct climate projection and downscaling indexes and implementing plans for establishing ■ Develop Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF) a National Framework for Climate Services. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 55 Similarly, cryosphere services will be enhanced ■ Initiate the use of CAP for warnings by the provision of water resource assessments ■ Initiate SMS-based warnings in collaboration from high-mountain snow and ice fields as well with telecom service provider as avalanche and GLOF warnings. It should be ■ Establish cell phone broadcast services for fully recognized that tailored services may not be warnings in collaboration with telecom generated by NCHM resources alone but require providers a knowledge base to be established in close cooperation with institutes of higher learning, the ■ Establish glacier lake outburst warning science community, and the public civil service as services including assessments of glacier lake well as private sector organizations. dam stability ■ Further develop GIS-based inventory and The integrated services link will be at a low maturity time/spatial development of hazardous glacier level. Following the medium-term modernization lakes in Bhutan stage, the integrated services will be initiated in ■ Conduct field surveys to monitor hazardous collaboration with DLGDM in the form of impact- glacier lakes, including arial visualization and based MHEWS and forecasts. Agromet services terrestrial observations will be codeveloped with the agriculture sector to ■ Develop grid-based precipitation and include preparing various crop-specific advisories temperature forecast maps and analytical information. Similarly, the NCHM jointly will start codeveloping hydromet services ■ Acquire ISO certification for aviation for the energy sector. ■ Develop and implement QMS for the entire NCHM Improvements in tailored and integrated services ■ Develop manuals for observation methods, should drive choices around the development and instrumentation including their calibration, use of models. Section 5.3 below provides some and maintenance. guidance on the choices and possible directions in ■ Develop standards for observation, data the future use of weather models by NCHM. The collection, monitoring, data management and choices should always be informed by the possible forecasting improvements in services (including integrated and tailored services) that can be facilitated by ■ Develop National Framework for Climate the scientific and technical improvements under Services (NFCS) consideration. ■ Enhance Agrometeorological Services ■ Develop drought monitoring portal Key activities ■ Develop of climate information system ■ Establish/improve user-oriented culture ■ Enhance remote data collection using mobile including introduction of user feedback apps systems ■ Develop/strengthen SOPs for service delivery 4.1.5 ICT ■ Enhance the website of the NCHM The ICT link will be at an intermediate level of maturity. The ICT link will be further developed ■ Enhance weather services provided on social with an integrated system for data transfer, quality media control, data storage, and management. All data ■ Develop/deepen links with broadcast media will be in the standard format required for the ■ Develop mobile application for the delivery of functioning of an integrated meteorological and products hydrological ICT system, allowing the retrieval of Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 56 4. Roadmap for Modernizing and Strengthening NCHM’s Services and Systems data in the format required by all staff and thus ■ Upgrade firewall and security systems covering the requirements for improved data ■ Replace existing old servers exchange between them. The visualization system, including hardware, software, and training for the forecast and services divisions, will be upgraded In neighboring Nepal, the introduction of for integration of all meteorological, hydrological, an Integrated File and Message Switching and cryosphere observations and model data. System and a fully-featured Climate Database Additional dissemination channels for enhanced Management System (as part of a World Bank provision of PWS and hydrological services will modernization project) has facilitated the be established including mobile platforms and the semi-automated production of a rich selection use of the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP). of daily and seasonal climate reports, focused primarily on temperature and rainfall. These While CAP is an excellent tool to disseminate are made freely available on the website of the forecast and warning information (and especially Department of Hydrology and Meteorology warnings) efficiently to key users, improved at https://www.dhm.gov.np/climate-services dissemination of routine information to the general and constitute a very valuable resource for public through broadcast channels, smartphones, many user sectors in that country. text and voice messaging is also crucial. This will entail some improvements in audio and video recording facilities, and also the augmentation of 4.1.6 Education and Training back-end ICT facilities to support improved online The education and training link will be at the platforms for forecast and warning information. intermediate maturity level. The education and training link will benefit from the introduction of Key activities more structured training activities to complement the new techniques, hardware, and software ■ Establish an Integrated File and Message introduced into the NCHM at its medium-term Switching System (IFMSS) modernization. These will include training ■ Acquire software and adaptation of existing of staff at the regional training and research software institutions in meteorological and hydrological ■ Establish a data archive system modelling techniques, impact-based forecasting, ■ Acquire sufficient numbers of servers, work- implementation and maintenance of the mobile stations, and PCs app and CAP, and implementation of MHEWS. ■ Develop a data management system Key activities ■ Develop intensity duration frequency curves using precipitation data ■ Training in managing and maintaining the re- habilitated and expanded observation networks, ■ Develop mobile apps for transmitting data including refresher courses for site observers from manual observation sites ■ Training in instrument calibration ■ Enhance ICT systems for Centralized Data Management System ■ Training in basic weather forecasting on all time scales ■ Install high performing computing system for modelling and forecasting ■ Training in impact-based forecasting ■ Upgrade existing networking components ■ Training in nowcasting ■ Acquire power backup systems, such as UPS ■ Training in aviation forecasting and generators ■ Training in agromet advisory preparation Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 57 ■ Training in satellite meteorology and basic courses on hydromet ■ Training in GIS and remote sensing ■ Develop competency framework for hydromet application and interpretation of high- technicians and forecasters resolution satellite data 4.1.7 Research and Development ■ Training in climate downscaling and projection In addition to enhancing the delivery of  hy- dromet  services on a daily basis, research and ■ Training in the database management system development are vital to advancing the reliability ■ Advanced training in NWP and delivery of  hydromet  services.  This  includes ■ Acquire access to and use of GIS tools for developing better models, improving understand- various purposes ing of the impacts of climate change on hydrome- teorological patterns, and keeping up to date with ■ Acquire remote sensing GIS software and advancing technologies and data availabilities, analysis tools for snowmelt modelling (specific among many others.  to cryosphere modelling) ■ Training in system administration and Key activities networking ■ Enhance the quality of Hydromet Journal ■ Training in QMS ■ Develop research guidelines for hydromet ■ Introductory course on cryosphere physics related subjects (snow and glaciers) and cryosphere meteorology and hydrology ■ Conduct/organize national, regional and international seminars/conferences ■ Training in instruments and methods of cryosphere observations ■ Conduct research to enhance hydrological modelling capabilities, incorporating advanced ■ Training in use of satellite observations in techniques and data assimilation methods for cryosphere environments improved accuracy in river flow simulations. ■ Training in theory and practice of fluorescent ■ Conduct research to assess the impact of tracer hydrological observations in cryosphere climate change on hydrological patterns, environments (rivers and glaciers) exploring potential shifts in precipitation, ■ Training in physics and processes of the temperature, and extreme weather events formation and development of avalanches ■ Investigate and implement advanced data ■ Training in theory and practice of elementary assimilation methods for integrating real- snow and glacier hydrological modelling time observational data into hydrological and ■ Training in hydrological modelling and flood meteorological models, enhancing prediction forecasting accuracy ■ Training in tracer hydrology to introduce ■ Establish ongoing capacity-building programs tracer hydrological methods, especially to ensure staff proficiency in the latest research methodologies, modelling techniques, discharge measurements in mountain streams and technological advancements in both ■ Training in the river water quality monitoring hydrology and meteorology ■ Training in snow and glacier hydrology, melt ■ Conduct research on glacier dynamics, mass modelling, and snow cover mapping balance, and retreat patterns ■ Training in preparing O&M strategy and ■ Investigate the increased risk of GLOF and annual plans. availability of water resources from melt ■ Develop training modules for refresher courses contribution Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 58 4. Roadmap for Modernizing and Strengthening NCHM’s Services and Systems 4.1.8 Human Resource Requirements ■ Five new M/H officers for the aviation forecast office (to bring the complement of fully trained The modernization plans, as described above, forecasters in this office up to six). will need to be accompanied by an increase in staffing of the NCHM if the investments are to ■ Two new Instrumentation Engineers to support be fully exploited for the benefits of the citizens calibration and Instrumentation of Bhutan and fully sustainable. For example, ■ One new M/H technician for the operational an increase in the number of synoptic stations flood forecast and warning office (to bring the will increase the workload for maintenance and complement in this office to six). calibration activities. Increased exploitation of ■ Six new ICT-trained technicians to provide global and regional NWP models will require highly 24/7 oversight of the operational ICT systems. trained specialist meteorologists who can become expert at this work. Similarly with the greater use ■ Three new specialists in NWP modelling, to of satellite imagery, both for weather prediction lead the exploitation and adaptation of glob- and for monitoring of GLOF hazards, specialists in al models to Bhutan and engage with regional the area of satellite meteorology will be needed. modelling groups in the development and use Provision of 24/7 weather forecast and warning of high-resolution modelling capability. services (for both PWS and aviation) will need fully ■ Two new specialists in climate modelling and staffed rosters; the same applies to hydrological downscaling. forecast and warning services and the oversight ■ Two new specialists in cryosphere modelling. and maintenance of the ICT operations which ■ Three new specialists in hydrological modelling underlie and facilitate all operational services. The and verification. introduction of upper air observations and weather radars will require specialists in these technologies ■ One new specialist in the exploitation of satel- to be either hired or trained from within the lite data. existing staff complement. The estimates of the ■ Two new specialists in ‘meteorological ICT’ to staffing requirements for 24/7 services underlie oversee the establishment and maintenance the detailed staff number recommendations of the IFMSS, data archive, data management provided in Annex VII, as summarized below: system, and so on. ■ Two new specialists in web/communications/ ■ Five extra technicians trained in instrument broadcasting to enhance the delivery of weather use, maintenance, and calibration, to support products and services online and build stron- the expansion of the meteorological and hy- ger links with the TV and radio broadcasters in drological observing network. Bhutan. ■ One extra meteorological technician to sup- ■ Two new specialists to work in developing and port the upper air station (assuming that this is delivering tailored services to important user an auto-launcher and is located at an existing communities such as disaster management, NCHM site). agriculture, hydropower, and so on. ■ Six new met/hydro (M/H) officers for the ■ One new QMS specialist to develop a QMS for operational weather forecast office (to bring the NCHM, oversee its implementation, and the complement of fully trained forecasters in develop and maintain the necessary documen- this office up to eight). The existing technical tation and records. staff working in weather forecasting can either be trained up to full meteorologist level or be ■ One new training officer who would work with redeployed. staff to develop individual training plans and who would match training needs with train- ing opportunities to ensure that all NCHM staff Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 59 remain up-to-date with their knowledge and for the NCHM, as described in the sections below, expertise. to provide fit-for-purpose data, forecasts, and Training activities are expensive and at present, warning services for the safety of the public and the provision of training opportunities is heavily protection of their livelihoods and enhanced dependent on the availability of funds. This support to the development of Bhutan’s economy. roadmap therefore includes suggestions for This time frame provides the opportunity to develop different approaches to capacity building. Bhutan integrated services in partnership with other might be able to make use of the WMO RTC national and international institutions and build facilities available in India. Regionally organized on the public task to develop closer relationships training events, through bodies such as SAHF with the private sector leading to the flourishing of and/or RIMES, might be more economical than private sector service providers. This modernization bespoke courses for NCHM alone. NCHM would plan is expected to cost approximately US$20 most likely benefit from twinning with an million to implement over 10 years. This includes advanced NMHS (for example, IMD) by sending capital investments in the observation and ICT its staff, particularly in modelling and forecasting infrastructure, the total O&M costs (excluding areas, to spend time in such institutions to learn labor costs) of approximately US$5.5 million, and first-hand how a more advanced NMHS functions. capacity-building costs of US$1 million. Possible increases in the staffing complement, such as have been detailed above, can only come The short- and medium-term approaches are about through increased funding from the RGoB; interdependent and should be conducted in a for this the development of a strong business plan phased manner to seamlessly blend and build on linking increased staffing with increased service each other to contribute to the overall goal of the provision would be of significant assistance, and modernization progress. Thus, the medium-term this Roadmap provides some of the basis for this. plan assumes the accomplishment of the majority of objectives in the medium term and builds on Annex III presents indicative costs and Annex them. IV presents the timeline for implementation of the proposed interventions for the short-term (5 Investment in the medium-term will provide the years) in the NCHM. NCHM with a substantial increase in capabilities in forecasting, ICT, and service delivery to meet various user needs, in addition to fully meeting 4.2 Medium-Term Modernization (2029–2034) the public task. At this stage, most of the effort is The provision of the best possible products and focused on the full utilization of all the new/upgraded services requires a more complete modernization systems in observation, modelling, forecasting, program. This forms the medium-term and ICT that have been put in place during the modernization in this roadmap, aiming to bring medium term of modernization to produce the NCHM up to the level of a well-functioning, fit-for-purpose services, so the investments modern NMHS with matching capabilities for proposed for this stage of modernization build providing data, forecasts, and warning services. on those detailed in Section 5.1. It is expected Under this approach plans are made for a further that a fully developed maintenance program for five-year outlook beyond the government’s all hardware and software is in place. Following immediate five-year planning cycle, to be reflected a 10-year modernization effort, the NCHM is in the preparations for the 14th FYP. expected to have a value chain whereby all the links are occupied at significantly higher levels Investments are targeted toward enabling on the maturity scale. The value chain after the development and acquiring advanced capabilities completion of this period is shown in Figure 30. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 60 4. Roadmap for Modernizing and Strengthening NCHM’s Services and Systems Figure 30. Schematic of the NCHM value chain after medium-term modernization intervention Models and Tailored Integrated Observations analytics Forecasts services services Advanced High intermediate Intermediate Low intermediate Low Unknown/none ICT infrastructure Education and training 4.2.1 Observation ■ Enhance existing EWS and install additional EWS in other risk prone river basins The observation link will be at an advanced level of maturity with the installation of two additional Cryosphere monitoring network: upper air stations, one weather radar to cover the ■ Provide two permafrost monitoring stations Thimphu/Paro regions, 10 synoptic stations, and 10 Calibration of hydromet equipment AWSs, all of which transmit data automatically and are fully integrated and absorbed into a central ICT ■ Install one Wind sensor calibrator and one system. Cryosphere observations of permafrost are ADCP calibrator carried out at two locations. All historical data are 4.2.2 Models, Analytics, and Forecasts digitized. The O&M budget is used for a proper life- cycle management of observation infrastructure The models and analytics link will be at a high and facilities. The investment for observations intermediate level of maturity. At this stage, a covers the cost of new observing equipment, tools, modelling group is established which is engaged instrumentation, software and facilities, supply of in continuous R&D and introducing innovations in spare parts, consumables, vehicles for field visits, modelling, with strong links to regional partners fuel, the increased communication costs, power in developing, running, and exploiting advanced and other operating costs, and quality control/ models. Model post-processing and calibration quality assurance procedures. All the stations are and data assimilation are now part of the routine fully functional. operation of the NCHM. In addition, a 30-year reanalysis of the Bhutan climate using a limited- Key activities area model would aid the design of infrastructural projects such as roads, bridges, and dams. The data Weather and climate observation network: could also be used to drive hydrological models ■ Expand the observation network to install to estimate return periods for flood conditions. 10 synoptic stations, 10 AWSs, two Doppler In terms of hydrology modelling and forecasting, weather radars, two upper air stations techniques for medium-term and long-term Hydrological monitoring network: forecasts (including ensemble approach) are enhanced. ■ Procure two additional ADCPs for discharge measurement and updating rating curves Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 61 The forecasts link will be at the high intermediate data, products, and services provided by the NCHM level and the production of nowcasts, probabilistic and raise understanding and awareness among forecasts as the basis of impact-based forecasting, the public, especially in remote and mountainous and hydrological forecasts are routine. communities, on weather-related hazards and risks. This work is especially important as Key activities impact-based forecasts and warnings become the more commonly used forms of information shared Weather and climate forecasting: with the public. At this stage, the NCHM uses its ■ Mainstream data assimilation, model post- own TV studio facilities to broadcast forecasts and processing, and calibration in the forecasting prepare content for online platforms. SOPs enable process the NCHM to codify how alerts, warnings, and ■ Conduct routine production of probabilistic other operational products are issued. The SOPs forecasts as the basis for impact-based also enable stakeholders to define their responses forecasting and nowcasts to the various levels of alerts and warnings. The ISO certification for aviation services and an ■ Operationalize long range prediction system organization-wide QMS are maintained. (climate forecasts, monthly, seasonal) ■ Provide forecasts for wind, heatwave, and The integrated services link will be further enhanced droughts to an intermediate maturity level. Opportunities Hydrological and flood forecasting: are explored to develop a new business strategy for more sustainable operations by initiating public- ■ Improve modelling and forecasting capabilities private engagement such as fee-based service for medium- and long-term streamflow provision and outsourcing of certain activities forecasts such as modelling, ICT services, and software ■ Enhance hydrological and cryosphere models upgrading. MHEWS and impact-based forecasting and hydrological and flood forecasting intermingle, leading to the development of impact- ■ Establish regular avalanche risk and warning based MHEWS in close collaboration with DLGDM. services in selected areas Other integrated services are also developed, for ■ Conduct routine hydrological and weather example, in agriculture, transport, construction, forecast verification and health sectors by working closely with these sectors and coproducing services. 4.2.3 Services Delivery Key activities The tailored services link will be at the advanced level at this stage, but further enhancements ■ Develop services for a wide cross-section of are still being made. Tailored services are now user sectors with enhanced dissemination available to a wide cross-section of user sectors mechanisms and further improvements are made in the ■ Co-develop impact-based MHEWS with dissemination mechanisms to communities. As DLGDM; develop other integrated services, part of its PWS, PWS/civil contingency advisers for example, in the agriculture, transport, are deployed to provide links with user sectors construction, and health sectors and especially with DLGDM, to support the necessary preparatory and anticipatory actions ■ Provide outreach and training support for to minimize the impact of hazardous hydromet main stakeholders in, for example, hydrology, events. Programs are developed and activities are DLGDM, and agriculture organized to help increase the capacity of users ■ Establish an avalanche warning and prediction to enable them to extract maximum benefits from service for the general public and specific Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 62 4. Roadmap for Modernizing and Strengthening NCHM’s Services and Systems users (for example, roads department, tourism Key activities services, hydropower companies) Develop a fully integrated ICT system by estab- ■ Revise and update SOPs to codify issuing lishing: alerts, warnings, and other operational ■ Forecast visualization system30 products ■ Climate Database Management System ■ Maintain ISO 2001:2015 certificate for aviation ■ A ‘one-stop’ users’ portal ■ Complete and maintain QMS for the entire NCHM. ■ Sufficient numbers of high performing servers, workstations, and personal computers (PCs) ■ Establish regular assessment of seasonal changes and mid/long-term trends in water ■ Software licenses resources availability from snow and glacier ■ Backup server in situ and in cloud regions for the scientific community and water resources management including hydropower 4.2.5 Education and Training generation potential The education and training link will be at an ■ Make available mass-balance changes and advanced level, further strengthened to allow trends of selected glaciers development of technical capacity and education ■ Implement Quality Management System for through a professional training plan for NCHM entire NCHM personnel. On-the-job training of staff to support the implementation and application of upgrades 4.2.4 ICT for hydromet components, including issues around effective service delivery, is ongoing in a The ICT link will be at a high intermediate lev- routine manner. More staff are trained at regional el. State-of-the-art ICT and computing facilities and international training centers. Training in (within the technological, human resources, and communication is provided routinely to all staff, financial capability of the NCHM) will occupy the especially those who interact with the public and ICT link. This includes a centralized data center with sectoral stakeholders. Continuing professional comprising an IFMSS, a forecaster visualization development of the managerial, scientific, and system to allow forecasters to view all relevant technical staff of the organization is the norm. data, a data archive which allows holding of all raw data in the medium term for quality control Key activities before the long-term storage of data; a CDMS for long-term storage of quality-controlled weather ■ Continuation of capacity-building and data; and sufficient number of servers, worksta- developing training programs for technical tions, and personal computers. The planned move personnel through on-the-job and classroom of the NCMH HQ to a separate campus, compris- training (by developing and using the training ing specially designed buildings to house and facilities of the new NCHM HQ) support sophisticated ICT equipment, would be an ■ Training at regional and international training important enabling element in achieving this level and research centers and other institutions— of ICT facility improvement. In addition, a service fellowships, attachments, longer-term delivery platform and applications are established education (for example, master’s and PhD. to disseminate and communicate products and in- degrees). formation. A ‘one-stop’ users’ portal for services, enabling easy and user-friendly access to serve all 30 This item was included in the five-year plan. If it has been implemented, then it can be removed from the 10-year plan. sectors from one location as well as mechanisms Another possible pathway is to provide a relatively simple for collecting user feedback, is established. forecast visualization system under the five-year plan and a more fully featured and advanced system (with production capability) under the 10-year plan. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 63 4.2.6 Research and Development ■ Four additional specialists to support, maintain, operate, and exploit the proposed weather radar ■ Undertake research on urban hydrology to un- network (two engineers, two meteorologists) derstand the impact of urbanization on local hydrological cycles, storm water management, ■ Four additional hydrology technicians to help and flood risk in urban areas operate the new ADCP equipment and expand the collection of rating curves and so on ■ Explore the use of remote sensing technologies to monitor land cover changes, snowmelt pat- ■ One specialist technician to manage, maintain, terns, and soil moisture, contributing to more and oversee the proposed permafrost monitor- ing station comprehensive hydrological assessments ■ Two extra specialists in meteorological NWP to ■ Initiate community-based hydrological moni- further improve exploitation of global weath- toring programs, involving local communities er models, deepen engagement with regional in data collection to enhance understanding of modelling initiatives, and conduct a 30-year regional hydrological dynamics reanalysis of the climate of Bhutan as a proxy ■ Invest in the development of probabilistic fore- for a detailed climate record casting tools for both hydrology and meteorol- ■ Two extra hydrological modelers to enhance ogy, providing decision-makers with a range of flood forecasting possible scenarios and associated uncertainties ■ One additional cryosphere modeler to help de- ■ Conduct research on flash flood prediction, fo- velop avalanche risk and warning services cusing on developing accurate and timely fore- casting models that consider local topography, ■ One additional climate modeler to improve rainfall patterns, and soil conditions seasonal and climate range forecasting ■ Establish ongoing capacity-building programs ■ Two extra specialists in meteorological ICT to ensure staff proficiency in the latest research systems—one each to manage and support the methodologies, modelling techniques, and forecaster visualization system and the climate technological advancements in both hydrology database management system and meteorology ■ One extra meteorologist or hydrologist focused on service delivery, to broaden and deepen the 4.2.7 Human Resource Requirements engagement of the NCHM with user commu- ■ Four extra technicians trained in instrument nities use, maintenance, and calibration, to support ■ One extra training and development officer, to the expansion of the meteorological and hy- focus on training, education, and outreach pro- drological observing network grams for users and for the public. ■ Two extra meteorological technicians to sup- Annex V presents indicative costs and Annex VI port the additional upper air stations (assum- presents the timeline for implementation of the ing that this is an auto-launcher and is located proposed interventions for the medium-term (10 at an existing NCHM site) years) in the NCHM. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 64 5. Conclusion Directing traffic in Thimphu. Photo credit: Andrew Peacock. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 65 5.1 Short- and Medium-term Modernization Medium-term (10 years) Modernization (2029–2034) and Beyond T Under this approach, plans are made for a he modernization of hydromet products and further 5-year outlook beyond the immediate services in Bhutan is driven by the needs of governmental 5-year planning cycle. Investment is various user communities, as outlined in the needed to enable the development and acquisition roadmap. Discussions with NCHM management of advanced capabilities for providing fit-for- and stakeholders indicate a need to strengthen purpose data, forecasts and warning services for meteorological and hydrological information the safety of the public, and for support to the provision. The roadmap aims to enhance NCHM’s development of Bhutan’s economy. capabilities by accessing up-to-date technologies and tools. Key improvements include a reliable data management system, diverse forecasting This modernization plan is expected to cost capabilities, integrated ICT systems, and effective US$19.9 million to implement over 10 years. service delivery mechanisms. Collaboration with This includes total operation and maintenance disaster management, agriculture, health, and costs (excluding labor costs) of US$5.5 million other sectors is encouraged. The roadmap offers two and capacity building costs of US$1 million. approaches to enhance NCHM’s capabilities with different complexities and resource requirements. Looking ahead: 2034 and beyond Short-Term (5 years) Modernization While this roadmap focuses on modernization (2024–2029) measures in short and medium term, the NCHM This modernization approach, aligned with Bhu- plans to prioritize the following investments tan’s 5-year planning cycle, outlines investments from 2034 and beyond, after the successful needed to enhance NCHM’s capabilities in provid- implementation of the short- and medium- ing meteorological and hydrological services, es- term modernization efforts. The following are pecially for disaster management, water resources, areas which will require continuous and ongoing hydropower, and agriculture. It prioritizes critical attention and investment if improvements are to activities such as accessing tools, acquiring es- be maintained: sential equipment, and training personnel to im- prove forecasting expertise. Training focuses on ■ User Interface platform and data accessibility: De- interpreting observations, remote sensing data, velop a unified user interface platform to facili- numerical weather models, ensemble forecasting, tate easy access to meteorological, climate, and methodologies, and communication techniques. hydrological data, fostering engagement with The aim is to establish a solid foundation of me- end-users, policymakers, and stakeholders. teorological knowledge among staff, addressing ■ Climate Services Information System: Establish current deficiencies, and ensuring effective service and enhance a CSIS that integrates meteoro- delivery. logical, climate, and hydrological data, ensur- ing interoperability and providing a centralized The estimated cost of implementation of this repository for comprehensive information. approach is US$14.9 million. This includes operation and maintenance costs (excluding ■ Observations and Monitoring: Upgrade and ex- labor costs) of approximately US$2.2 million pand observational networks for meteorology and capacity building costs of US$1 million and and hydrology, incorporating advanced tech- also cost of the construction of the scientific nologies for real-time monitoring and data facilities of NWFWC of US$2.8 million. assimilation. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 66 5. Conclusion ■ Climate Research and Modelling: Invest in cutting- porating indigenous knowledge and enhancing edge climate research and modelling, utilizing community resilience through tailored meteo- advanced techniques to enhance understanding rological and hydrological solutions. and predictability of climate patterns and ■ Innovation and Technology Integration: Foster trends. innovation and technology integration, exploring emerging technologies to enhance ■ Early Warning Systems: Strengthen and expand meteorological and hydrological services, early warning systems, integrating meteoro- and embracing advancements for continuous logical, hydrological and Cryosphere data for improvement. improved weather and flood forecasting, en- hancing resilience against climate-induced di- ■ Financial Mechanisms and Resource Mobilization: sasters. Establish sustainable financial mechanisms, ■ Vulnerability and Impact Assessments: Conduct including public and private partnerships, to regular vulnerability and impact assessments support the implementation of meteorological, to identify climate-related risks and guide climate, and hydrological projects over the 15- adaptive strategies, ensuring a proactive ap- year period. proach to changing climate conditions. ■ Continuous Monitoring and Evaluation: Imple- ■ Capacity Building: Implement capacity-building ment a robust monitoring and evaluation programs to empower professionals in mete- system to assess the effectiveness of interven- orology, climate science, hydrology and cryo- tions, ensuring adaptive management and con- sphere, fostering a skilled workforce capable of tinuous improvement throughout the 15-year addressing evolving challenges. time frame. ■ Knowledge Management and Public Awareness: Establish effective knowledge management 5.2 Public-Private Engagement and Service systems and public awareness campaigns, promoting a better understanding of climate- Provision related issues and encouraging informed The private sector’s involvement in the decision-making. hydrometeorological value chain is limited in Bhutan, although both public and private actors ■ Cross-sectoral collaboration: Facilitate cross-sec- are essential for improving weather and climate toral collaboration by integrating climate, me- services. There is a need, on the one hand, to teorological, and hydrological considerations protect society from the impact of extreme/high- into various sectors, fostering resilience in ag- impact meteorological and hydrological events riculture, water management, and infrastruc- and, on the other, to increase economic activity in ture. a range of weather sensitive sectors. Any effort to further improve weather and climate services must ■ Climate-Resilient Infrastructure development: explicitly consider the role of both the public and Develop and implement climate-resilient in- the private sectors throughout the value chain— frastructure development, incorporating mete- from the delivery of observations to the provision orological and hydrological insights to ensure of services to end user customers and clients.31 It is infrastructure sustainability in the face of important to explore how both public and private changing climate patterns. sector actors can engage in the market and how to ■ Community Engagement: Engage local commu- 31 Thorpe, A., and D. Rogers. 2021. Creating Value in the Weather nities in climate and weather initiatives, incor- Enterprise. Washington, DC: World Bank. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 67 ensure that competition is fair and of social and assess whether there would be a solid business economic benefit to society.32 case for investing in this approach. There is a general understanding that weather, At present, private hydrometeorological service climate, and water information is critical to providers do not operate in Bhutan. Cooperative business development, particularly in the context activities between the NCHM and the private sector of climate change and the greater sensitivity of are also either nonexistent or are exceptions, for modern economies to environmental factors. example, in the hydropower generation sector. While a government department or agency may One possibility to explore would be a joint venture benefit from participating in a commercial between NCHM and hydropower companies to market, there is a risk that attempting to provide explore the potential of small tributaries through commercial services may detract from the core the establishment of localized rainfall and river public task, resulting in weaker public services. gauging networks. This may change in the future Care must, therefore, be taken in any effort to with the increasing development of the economy balance commercial and public activities within and potential growth of the private sector an NMHS. engaged in hydrometeorology. In such a future environment, the primary role of the NCHM would Sustainable funding is key, and for the immediate be to focus on providing public services while future it must come from government sources operating within a regulatory framework with and development agencies as the current respect to any overlapping with the operations of capacity of NCHM to develop alternative income the private sector. It is perhaps fair to assume that streams through service provision is limited. the NCHM is expected to continue as the principal However, NCHM needs to give serious thought public service provider for the foreseeable future. as how to explore opportunities in marketing its products and services as it develops more Through strengthening Public-Private Engage- technical capabilities. Some pilot projects in ment, NCHM can engage with potential partners targeted service provision to specific stakeholders in the hydromet space (for example, equipment / user communities could be the first step to help and service providers) that can potentially help in NCHM to develop expertise and confidence in the dissemination and implementation of the main this area, and to improve its knowledge about the findings and recommendations of this roadmap. potential market for hydrometeorological services in Bhutan. 5.3 Innovation Improvements in the capacity of NCHM would Advances in scientific and technical innovations bring with it the possibility of generating high- have been a cornerstone of the evolution of quality commercially-based services and thus meteorology and hydrology over the past augmenting the core income received from the decades and these will continue into the future RGoB. Ideally, an up-to-date economic study with exciting and promising developments to would be needed to estimate the potential revenue produce ever more relevant, useful, and usable available for high quality meteorological services tools for decision-making by individuals and the provided to key commercial stakeholders. This society as a whole. Some of the key innovations in revenue estimate would then need to be set against meteorology and hydrology such as the application the costs of providing and delivering such services of artificial intelligence (AI), ever more powerful (extra staff, high-level training, technology) to ensemble forecasting models, climate reanalysis, and data assimilation are described below in 32 World Bank. 2019. The Power of Partnership: Public and Private Engagement in Hydromet Services. Washington, DC: World Bank. general and with specific application to Bhutan. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 68 5. Conclusion By including ML generative forecasts that utilize AI, deep learning (DL), and machine learning all existing local data in addition to numerical (ML) techniques will enable all NMHSs, weather predictions, warnings can be issued ear- including those in developing countries, lier. This is particularly important for nowcasts of to access a range of products that will severe weather. Similarly, ML can provide timely enhance forecasting techniques. The use of warnings related to human activities rather than these techniques is a rapidly growing aspect only considering the meteorological event. For ex- of weather modelling and involves creating ample, ensuring that messages are received before large member forecast ensembles, potentially rush hour or before schools and workplaces open. extending the number of ensembles and downscaling both global and regional models One of the challenges faced by users of to provide highly localized forecasts of rain meteorological services in Bhutan is that and other critical weather parameters. the climate record is sparse and rather short in duration. The orography of Bhutan is extreme, which makes it difficult to construct The size and resolution of operational ensemble a comprehensive and consistent record of the forecasts are constrained by computational evolution of weather over the country, because of resources, particularly in developing countries. the relative lack of observations and because the ML techniques can be used to oversample observations from a given location may not be numerical weather prediction distributions, representative of nearby areas. Local observations enabling more accurate representation of could be extended using ML techniques to create extreme weather events (the so-called tails of fields, which in turn can be used for bias correction the distribution), for example, high rainfall, at of the ensemble and rapidly update the forecast relatively low computation cost. cycle to create 0–6-hour hyperlocal predictions. ML tools can generate more specific impact maps using location data in real time enabling more Climate reanalysis technique could be used targeted risk communication. This will overcome to construct a useful climatological record for the difficulties with current practice of issuing Bhutan. This uses the analysis schemes that warnings which often cover a large geographical are part of modern NWP models coupled with area when, in practice, the area affected is likely all available historical weather data to create to be much smaller. This will also allow sending a series of weather analyses over the target resources, like emergency workers and supplies, area from some chosen date in the past up to to places to be affected by the hazard. recently. The global ERA-5 reanalysis dataset has been created by ECMWF, with a horizontal ML techniques can also be applied to data on resolution of about 31 km and extending from weather impacts which when combined with 1940 to almost the present day. The data would the ensemble predictions provide point-specific be too coarse to provide useful climatological and sector-specific highly localized probabilistic information for Bhutan, but they do provide a forecasts of weather impacts. In addition, ML baseline record of the climate over the past eight techniques can be applied to human behavior to decades. Climate reanalysis techniques provide create realistic decision support systems which can a means to overcome the short, and patchy, target specific needs of individual communities and climate record for Bhutan are an alternative businesses and provide personalized actionable source of estimates of extreme weather etc. forecasts and warnings. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 69 It would be possible to create a much higher- Currently, ECMWF is running a global 100-mem- resolution reanalysis dataset for a specific ber ensemble every six hours with a horizon- limited domain which could act as a proxy for tal resolution of 9 km and using world-leading a climatological record based only on surface (4Dvar) data assimilation techniques. The output observations. For example, the ‘MÉRA’ dataset33 from this ensemble is far superior to almost all the was created for Ireland by Met Éireann. This limited-area modelling that is run in the devel- dataset can be used to provide estimates of oping countries, so it makes no sense to compete extreme values of wind, rain, and temperature with it in any way. The long-term plans for EC- and other parameters of interest to users at any MWF are for the model resolution to be improved particular point within the model domain. The to 5 km and eventually to 1 km or 2 km over the meteorological data can also be used to drive coming decade, as more high-powered computers flood modelling for river catchments, helping to become available. generate an understanding of the possible extreme events and their annual likelihood. The question for smaller NMHS such as the NCHM, therefore, is how best to benefit from Creating these reanalyses takes a lot of computer this exceptional capability provided by the global time and power and could best be carried out in an models. One approach is to directly calibrate and academic environment or at an advanced weather downscale the output from the global ensembles to modelling center. In the case of Bhutan, it is likely local scales (calibration would lean heavily on the that an Indian institution would be best placed to output of local or regional reanalysis schemes). It carry out this type of work. An ML model based on is possible that ML would have a role to play in this the ERA-5 dataset from ECMWF would suffer from process. Another is to run impact-based models the coarse resolution for the extreme orography of which would take the weather forecast data and Bhutan. Using ML models in the context of Bhutan, transform them into information of value to users. therefore, would necessitate developing a high- An example might be a model which would convert resolution climate dataset (similar to the MÉRA rainfall amounts into river flows and thus predict dataset) which might then be used to train the ML- available capacity for hydroelectric generation. based model. A considerable amount of research Other examples might combine forecast data for work would be required to arrive at this point. rainfall, temperature, and sunshine to produce indexes of crop growth or similar. The major drawback of the limited-area WRF model run by the NCHM is lack of assimilation of One drawback of these extremely high-resolu- local data into the model initialization and post- tion global ensembles is that the data volume processing schemes to provide bias correction which they produce is enormous. Therefore, or calibration. This is also a deterministic model, schemes such as those described in the preced- providing only one possible evolution of weather ing paragraph would need to be implemented at conditions. There is a strong move away from the supercomputer site where the model is run, so deterministic models and toward ensembles where that only the locally focused output would need to a model is run multiple times and probabilities of be transmitted back to the relevant NMHS. This weather events can be derived from the output. ‘bringing the application to the data’ is a common challenge in all big-data contexts. 33 MÉRA = Met Éireann Reanalysis. Whelan, E., E. Gleeson, and J. Hanley. 2018. “An Evaluation of MÉRA, a High-Resolution Mesoscale Regional Reanalysis.” J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol. 57: This section strongly suggests the overall 2179–2196, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-17-0354.1. (The MÉRA dataset covers 35 years from 1981 and creates a high- migration over time toward the use of superior resolution (2.5 km) regional climate reanalysis dataset at 3-hour time intervals over the 35-year period.) ECMWF product. However, in the short term NCHM will not lose anything in learning the basics Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 70 5. Conclusion of NWP such as verification and parametrization, key considerations. Studies conducted in Bhutan34 since WRF already is used, and to abandon this have identified that due to the prevailing gender- work precipitously would not confer any benefits. based disparities that are discriminatory toward The roadmap stresses that human and financial women, their receipt and access of information resources should not be invested in developing related to disaster and climate risk, technical new Limited Area Models; this is rather different support, and extension services are not equitable. than making the best use of what NCHM already has in the short to medium term. It is vital to ensure that the modernization of the NCHM takes an approach that is inclusive of gender aspects35 and vulnerable groups The implications for the NCHM would be, (such as those suffering from physical or mental in the longer term, to move its focus away disabilities), as the impacts of forecasts and from developing local-area NWP modelling warning services lie in their ability to reach the and instead focus on schemes to bias-correct, people, sectors, and businesses that are most at calibrate, and downscale global model data risk, and in the capacity of people to take protective and train some of their scientists in AI/ML actions in good time. Warning messages, for techniques. It will also be important to develop example, should be communicated in ways that a climate reanalysis dataset. Costs for these enable those with vision or hearing impairment to activities, including capacity building, have receive them. been included in the estimates in Annexes III and V. The implementation of this roadmap must reflect this approach, acknowledging the roles and capacities of different groups and maximizing 5.4 An Inclusive Approach to Modernization their involvement. This would not only provide opportunities for them to participate but also Inclusion is paramount in providing hydromet ensure that the process benefits from their key services, since the access and use of information knowledge (including traditional and cultural) and the ability to understand the information and and experience. This is aligned with achieving messages and make appropriate decisions vary objectives and targets of several national policies widely. Vulnerability to high-impact and severe and strategies in Bhutan such as national FYPs, weather and coping capacities vary due to criteria Climate Change Policy, Disaster Management such as the socioeconomic standing, gender, age, Act, National Environmental Protection Act, and and physical and mental disabilities. It is recognized National Gender Equality Policy. that women play a key role in protecting family and assets from hazards during extreme and For gender-responsive and socially inclusive high-impact hydrometeorological events, when hydromet services, there are three essential men are often working away from home. It is also areas to consider: known that men and women have different needs and capabilities for accessing information and a. Livelihoods and economic production in the responding to warnings. It is therefore essential to climate-sensitive sectors be responsive to gender-based and socioeconomic considerations in formulating and communicating warnings for multiple hazards. Also, in building 34 RGoB, National Commission for Women and Children, Gender, and Climate Change in Bhutan, with a focus on Nationally community capacities to receive and be able Determined Contribution Priority Areas: Agriculture, Energy, and Waste, 2020. to take early action in response to warnings, Analysis of Disaster Risk Management and Gender Nexus in differences in vulnerabilities and capacities are Bhutan (Draft- Assessment conducted for the World Bank) 35 Gender-based disadvantages and discriminatory practices that mostly affect women. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 71 b. Vulnerabilities of varying community groups disaster preparedness, response, and recovery.36 to impacts of hydrometeorological hazards and These considerations need to be an integral part coping capacities of the implementation of this roadmap. c. Impact-based services and warning systems, The following provisions under the ‘service tailoring services to user needs. delivery’ component of this roadmap enable strengthening the existing actions, and initiating This should be done by collecting information via new actions, to address the range of gender and various tools, such as surveys and focus groups, social inclusion aspects related to hydromet to inform the design of hydrometeorological information and services: information services, particularly warnings, such that they include these different needs for ■ Address communication channels, strengthen- anticipatory action and promote coherence of ing relationships with stakeholders and users response. In addition, Bhutan needs to strengthen including gathering feedback (enables two-way the availability of gender- and age-disaggregated communication). data to understand the severity of the impact of ■ Develop impact-based forecasting to facilitate disasters on different gender identities. Country- users’ anticipatory measures and response ca- wide specific analysis on how different gender and pability (enables consideration of variations in vul- vulnerable groups receive, interpret, and respond nerability and capacity of community groups). to alerts is also needed. ■ Enhance communication of information in Provision of gender-transformative high- a needs-based manner through multiple impact weather and early warning services dissemination and communication channels means addressing the root causes and structures and socially relevant modes and communication that lead to gendered impacts. Different from a formats (enables consideration of the challenges of superficial headcount, this requires proactively non/semi-literate, disabled/differently abled). designing and redesigning practices to reduce inequalities to meet all people’s needs. Similar ■ Enhance tailored services to critical weath- consideration should be given to the inclusion of er-dependent economic sectors (enables con- vulnerable groups. Disaster risks for people with sideration of the weather-related constraints of the different abilities and disabilities are greater and livelihoods of the marginalized within the economic sectors). they face more danger during any hazard, yet common warning alerts and response measures ■ Establish communication links with user are not always adequate for them. An inclusive groups, private sector entities, related govern- approach in impact-based and early warning ment departments, and institutions of higher services design and implementation would learning as well as create links with interna- improve outcomes for vulnerable people and tional partners in the region (such as ICIMOD) create accessible products that also benefit others and beyond. in their communities. A transformative gender- responsive and socially inclusive methodology Lastly, a complementary aspect is the employment examines who is most at risk; who has access of women and persons of marginalized groups in technical as well as administrative functions to the information required for generating early in production and delivery of services. Equal warnings; how and to which population groups early warnings are issued; whether preparedness 36 Globally, the connection between EWS and the rights of and response measures are adequate to respond vulnerable groups stems from interaction of the Sendai Framework, Beijing Declaration, and the Platform for Action and to alerts; and which groups should contribute to the Convention on Human Rights of People with Disabilities. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 72 5. Conclusion opportunities should also be made available to NGOs. Every opportunity, both formal and men, women, and other groups for contribution informal, should be used to foster awareness with their experience and knowledge and for on hydromet challenges and to disseminate the participation in training and capacity-building recommendations of the roadmap. programs. ■ NCHM might consider community outreach through workshops and educational programs 5.5 Stakeholders Engagement and Dissemination to raise awareness at the grassroot level about Because meteorology and hydrology are of such the benefits of hydromet services. key importance to social and economic activity in Bhutan, it is imperative that NCHM keeps in ■ Regional/International collaboration: At the close contact with many elements of society to regional level NCHM should aim to deepen ensure that its work is both fully exploited and collaboration and work with neighboring properly appreciated. countries which are already contributing to the different components of the hydromet ■ NCHM routinely engages with key stakeholders value chain. The South Asia Hydromet Forum through workshops and similar. Key (SAHF), of which Bhutan is an active member, stakeholders include government ministries represents a platform to advance the ambitions and departments, commercial entities, tourism articulated in this roadmap and to foster data representatives, community organizations and and knowledge sharing. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 73 Annexes Gasa lake. Photo credit: Dechen Tshering. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 74 Annex I: Organizational Structure, Staffing, and Budget of the NCHM ANNEX I Organizational Structure, Staffing, and Budget of the NCHM A.1 Organizational Structure direction and leadership, facilitating the mobilization of funds, managing the regional Secretariat and international relations, and monitoring and evaluating programs/plans as per the government The Secretariat is the top-level organizational procedures. and administrative unit of the NCHM. The main function of the Secretariat is the management of the NCHM and its divisions and is responsible Technical Standard and Research Division for Finance, Human Resource Management, The TSRD is mandated to coordinate research and pub- Procurement, Stores, and Administration. It lications, calibration of instruments, standardization of provides the overall policy and administrative hydrometeorological data, and related observations. Functions ■ Develop and establish operational policies, guidelines, and other relevant standards pertaining to hydrometeorological instruments, observations, and statistics. ■ Develop and promote national standards for methods, procedures, techniques, and practices in hydrology, meteorology, and operational hydrology in coordination with relevant regulatory agencies and technical regulations, guidelines, and manuals of the World Meteorological Orga- nization (WMO) and ICAO. ■ Develop technical manuals for operational hydrology, meteorology, and cryosphere observations. ■ Develop a competency framework and training manuals for operational hydrology, meteorology, and cryosphere in coordination with other divisions. ■ Carry out calibrations of hydromet instruments and equipment. ■ Coordinate and conduct research improvements to existing standards, technical manuals, and guidelines. ■ Coordinate research on new science and technologies with technical divisions and external agen- cies. ■ Provide research clearance on the field of hydrology, meteorology, and cryosphere sciences. ■ Provide technical sanction for works and procurement of goods and services. ■ Publication of research journals, technical manuals, and related reports. ■ Compliance monitoring of standards and quality assurance for observation and data collection in the field of hydrology, meteorology, and cryosphere. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 75 Cryosphere Services Division the Weather and Climate Services Division (WCSD) technicians. Currently, CSD carries out field CSD is mandated to monitor, carry out research and observations by trained technicians, engineers, produce inventories on cryosphere (snow, glaciers, glacier lakes), and perform hazard assessments to and geologists on three benchmark glaciers and generate science-based information for understanding other glacial lakes. Hazard assessments and climate change, mitigation and adaptation planning, hazard mapping are carried out by HWRSD. The and cryosphere hazards such as avalanches and GOLFs. flood/GLOF hazard assessment is carried out by Cryosphere observation stations are looked after by HWRSD while the GLOF modelling is done by CSD. Functions ■ Prepare plans and programs related to cryosphere (snow, glaciers, glacier lakes, permafrost) monitoring in Bhutan Himalaya. ■ Conduct time series monitoring of glaciers and glacial lakes. ■ Maintain inventory and national cryosphere database (Cryosphere Information Hub). ■ Assess hazards and risks of glaciers and glacier lakes and threat of GLOFs including mapping and melt contribution from glaciers and snow to river runoff. ■ Provide information on snowpack development and snow properties for the establishment of an avalanche warning system. ■ In cooperation with other departments, assess hazards and risks of cryosphere-related mass movements (as a result of thawing of permafrost). ■ Research and publish scientific papers on cryosphere and related studies. ■ Coordinate with national agencies related to snow and glacier monitoring and data collection. ■ Foster collaboration with regional and international institutions/agencies involved in the field of cryosphere research and data sharing through the center. ■ Provide professional and technical services to the center/other agencies on conceptual and meth- odological aspects of cryosphere monitoring and related studies. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 76 Annex I: Organizational Structure, Staffing, and Budget of the NCHM Meteorological Services Division The MSD is mandated to observe and provide PWS, information and services, agrometeorology, and severe weather warnings, climate data management aviation meteorological services. The total staff of the and services, long-range forecasting, climate change division is 57, with 23 of these working in the HQ. Functions ■ Operate the national meteorological observation network. ■ Provide PWS. ■ Monitor extreme weather events and issue warnings/bulletins/advisories. ■ Operate and maintain the national climate database management system. ■ Conduct climate modelling, downscaling, and climate change projections. ■ Provide climate services including agrometeorological services. ■ Prepare and provide short-, medium-, extended-range and seasonal forecasts. ■ Conduct research and development in the field of weather and climate change. ■ Serve as the aviation meteorological service provider within Bhutan. ■ Undertake education, training, and awareness programs on weather and climate. Hydrology and Water Resources Services Division HWRSD is mandated for water resources assessment, services related to floods and GLOFs. This is the largest hydrological observation, forecasting, hydrological division with more than one hundred staff members, data management, dissemination of hydrological the majority of whom are stationed at the observing data and information, and the issue of early warning sites across Bhutan. Functions ■ Install, operate, and maintain of national hydrological and flood observation networks including sediment and ambient water quality. ■ Operate flood/GLOF EWSs. ■ Provide hydrological forecast, issue flood/GLOF advisories, and early warning services. ■ Operate the National Hydrological Database Management System. ■ Carry out national water resource assessment and maintain river information system. ■ Carry out R&D in the field of hydrological science. ■ Carry out flood/GLOF hazard assessment and mapping. ■ Provide hydrological data and information. ■ Provide ambient water quality data and information. ■ Conduct education, training, and awareness programs on operational hydrology. ■ Under the guidance of CSD, conduct education, training, and awareness programs on GLOF EWS, snow properties, and avalanches. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 77 A.2 Staffing Table A.1 shows the staff strength in divisions under the NCHM. Table A.1. NCHM approved and existing staff strength and distribution Approved by Division/Secretariat RCSC Existing Gap Remarks Secretariat 12 9 −3 TSRD 7 5 −2 CSD 8 7 −1 MSD 57 50 −7 HWRSD 114 105 −22 Drivers and ESP 9 9 0 Total 207 185 −22 Regular approved 198 and 9 by standard Source: NCHM. Table A.2. Staff numbers (existing) by division and by location Location/Function Secretariat TSRD CSD MSD HWRSD Total Director/Chiefs 1 1 1 1 1 5 HQ - for 9 to 5 work 8 2 6 12 15 50 NWFWC shift work 7 5 12 Airports 13 (7 Paro, 2 Bumthang, 13 2 Gelephu, 2 Yongphula) Laboratories 2 3 5 Drivers and sweepers 9 9 Other locations 17 68 78 HWRSD-GoI Program 13 13 Total 18 5 7 50 105 185 Source: NCHM. Table A.3. Staff mapping, Secretariat, NCHM Organizational structure Staffing patterns Division Section Position Approved post Existing staff Gaps Office of Director Director 1 1 0 Office of Director Personal assistant 1 1 0 Secretariat Program officer 1 0 −1 Human Resources HR officer 1 1 0 Services Admin assistant/HR assistant 2 2 0 Procurement Services Procurement officer 1 1 0 Secretariat Store assistant 1 1 0 Services ICT officer 1 0 −1 ICT assistant 1 1 0 Finance Services Finance officer 1 0 −1 Account assistant 1 1 0 Pool Staff Driver 8 8 0 Sweeper 1 1 0 Total 21 18 −3 Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 78 Annex I: Organizational Structure, Staffing, and Budget of the NCHM Table A.4. Staff mapping TSRD, NCHM Organizational structure Staffing patterns Division Section Position Approved post Existing staff Gaps TSRD Chief M/H officer 1 1 0 Technical Planning M/H officer 2 1 −1 Technical and Standard Section Standards and (including calibration) M/H technician 2 1 −1 Research Division Research and Publication M/H officer 2 2 0 Section Total 7 5 −2 Table A.5. Staff mapping CSD, NCHM Organizational structure Staffing patterns Division Section Position Approved post Existing staff Gaps CSD) Specialist/chief 1 1 0 M/H officer Monitoring and Survey M/H officer 5 4 −1 CSD Section Cryosphere Information M/H officer 1 1 0 Management Section M/H technician 1 1 0 Total 8 7 −1 Table A.6. Staff mapping MSD, NCHM Organizational structure Staffing patterns Division Section Position title Approved Post Existing staff Gaps Weather Forecasting Chief M/H officer 1 1 0 M/H officer 3 3 0 M/H technician 7 4 −3 Climate Data Management Statistical officer 1 1 0 M/H technician 3 3 0 Climate Services M/H officer 5 3 −2 MSD M/H technician 1 1 0 Meteorological Observation M/H officer 2 1 −1 M/H technician 1 1 0 M/H officer 2 1 −1 Aviation Meteorology M/H technician 11 11 0 East Regional Stations M/H technician 9 9 0 West Regional Stations M/H technician 11 11 0 Total 57 50 −7 Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 79 Table A.7. Staff mapping HWRSD, NCHM Organizational Structure Staffing Patterns Division Section Position Title Approved Post Existing staff Gaps HWRSD Specialist/Chief M/H Officer 1 1 0 Forecasting and Warning M/H technician 5 5 0 Hydrological Data Management M/H officer 2 1 −1 Statistical officer 1 1 0 M/H technician 2 2 0 Sediment and Water Quality Principal engineer 1 1 0 Monitoring Lab assistant 2 2 0 Hydrological Observation M/H officer 4 4 0 Assistant engineer 1 1 0 HWRSD M/H technician 1 1 0 Office of the TMO (GoI) Engineer 1 1 0 Admin Assistant 1 1 0 M/H technician 2 2 0 Assistant engineer 1 1 0 M/H technician 1 1 0 Eastern Region (9 dzongkhags) M/H officer 1 1 0 M/H technician 54 36 −18 Western Region (11 dzongkhags) M/H technician 33 30 −3 Total 114 92 −22 OVERALL TOTAL HWRSD (Including 13 ESP/GSP under FWS-GoI) 105 Table A.8. Existing staff capacity by professional category Engineers/Meteorologists/ Division/Secretariat Hydrologists Technicians/Nontechnical Admin support Secretariat 1 17 TSRD 3 2 CSD 6 1 MSD 11 39 HWRSD 10 81 1 HWRSD-GoI Program 13 (ESP/GSP) Total 31 123 31 Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 80 Annex I: Organizational Structure, Staffing, and Budget of the NCHM A.3 Budget The total NCHM budget allocations (RGoB and FY2012–2021 are shown in Tables A.9 and A.10, Donors) for 2012–2021 and the expenditure for respectively. Table A.9. NCHM total budget allocation for FY2012–2021 (US$, millions) Funding source 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 RGoB Current 0.516 0.576 0.550 0.6 0.44 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.4 Capital 0.2 0.174 0.378 0.2 0.11 0.23 0.1 0.3 0.4 Total 0.716 0.750 0.928 0.8 0.55 0.83 0.7 1.1 1.8 Development partners and donors Current 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.013 Capital 0.237 0.571 1.426 2.4 3.4 1.7 2.7 0.38 0.64 Total 0.237 0.571 1.426 2.43 3.44 1.73 2.72 0.4 0.653 GoI (flood warning activity) Current 0.230 0.233 0.222 0.0 0.23 0.3 0.3 0.23 0.2 Capital 0.112 0.149 0.227 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.23 0.3 Total 0.342 0.382 0.449 0.0 0.53 0.8 0.7 0.46 0.5 Grand Total 1.295 1.703 2.803 3.23 4.52 3.36 4.12 1.96 2.953 Figure A.1 depicts the total budget of the NCHM development partner funding to support capital over the past nine years, with Figures A.2 and expenditure, although in more recent years the A.3 respectively showing the same budget broken capital expenditure is more balanced between the down into current and capital expenditure. Figure three sources, mainly due to a decrease in capital A.3 clearly shows the strong dependency on (project) funding from development partners. Figure A.1. NCHM total budget—past nine years 5.000 4.500 4.000 3.500 Millions $US 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 0.500 0.000 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 n Dev. Part. 0.237 0.571 1.426 2.430 3.440 1.730 2.720 0.400 0.635 n Gol 0.343 0.382 0.449 0.000 0.530 0.800 0.700 0.460 0.500 n RGoB 0.716 0.750 0.928 0.800 0.550 0.830 0.700 1.100 1.800 Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 81 Figure A.2. NCHM current budget—past nine years 1.800 1.600 1.400 1.200 Millions $US 1.000 0.800 0.600 0.400 0.200 0.000 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 n Dev. Part. 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.030 0.040 0.030 0.020 0.020 0.013 n Gol 0.230 0.233 0.222 0.000 0.230 0.300 0.300 0.230 0.200 n RGoB 0.516 0.576 0.550 0.600 0.440 0.600 0.600 0.800 1.400 Figure A.2, however, indicates a degree of necessary for the modernization program will need resilience in the current budget, and the increase to be complemented by a significant rise in the over the final three years displayed is noteworthy. current budget if the full benefits of modernization This is particularly relevant as the proposed are to the delivered to the Bhutanese citizens. capital investments outlined in Chapter 4 as being Figure A.3. NCHM capital budget—past nine years 5.000 4.500 4.000 3.500 Millions $US 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 0.500 0.000 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 n Dev. Part. 0.237 0.571 4.126 2.400 3.400 1.700 2.700 0.380 0.640 n Gol 0.112 0.149 0.227 0.000 0.530 0.800 0.700 0.460 0.500 n RGoB 0.200 0.174 0.378 0.200 0.110 0.230 0.100 0.300 0.400 Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 82 Annex I: Organizational Structure, Staffing, and Budget of the NCHM Table A.10 and Figure A.4 clearly show how the Figure A.5 provides a percentage breakdown of NCHM has been efficient in utilizing both its own the total budget spending over the nine years from (RGoB) budget resources and those provided by FY13 to FY21 between the three sources of funding. development partners. In almost all instances, the The figures are clearly skewed by the significant expenditure figures reach 90 percent or more of capital expenditure from development partner the available budget. funding from 2014 to 2019. Table A.10. NCHM total expenditure summary for 2012–2021 (US$, millions) Funding source 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 RGoB Total approved budget 0.716 0.75 0.928 0.8 0.55 0.83 0.7 1.1 1.8 Total expenditure 0.68 0.7 0.84 0.72 0.51 0.79 0.63 0.96 1.6 % Utilized 94.97 93.33 90.51 90.00 92.72 95.18 90.00 87.27 88.88 Development partners and donors Total approved budget 0.237 0.571 1.426 2.43 3.44 1.73 2.72 0.4 0.653 Total expenditure 0.231 0.566 1.4 2.35 3.42 1.71 2.6 0.38 0.63 % Utilized 97.46 99.12 98.17 96.70 99.41 98.84 95.58 95.00 96.47 Figure A.4. Percentage expenditure of annual budget 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20 2020–21 n RGoB n Dev. Part. Figure A.5. Percentage of sources for total budget, 2012–13 to 2020–21 RGoB 32% Dev. Part. 52% Govt. of India 16% Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 83 ANNEX II Breakdown of the Estimated Cost of the New NCHM Campus Total Plinth Cost of S. No. of Plinth No. of plinth area rate Plinth building No. Building type buildings area (m2) floors area (m2) (BTN) height (m) (BTN) 1 Main office building 1 410.14 2 820.276 7,084 3.5 40,675,846.29 2 Conference 1 134.22 1 134.22 7,084 3.5 3,327,850.68 4 Office canteen 1 134.22 1 134.22 7,084 3.5 3,327,850.68 Sediment lab and water 5 1 175.25 1 175.245 7,084 3.5 4,345,024.53 quality analysis lab Instrumentation and 6 1 175.25 1 175.245 7,084 3.5 4,345,024.53 calibration lab Central store and instrument 7 1 206.82 1 206.82 7,084 3.5 5,127,895.08 maintenance workshop 8 24/7 staff quarters 1 120.00 2 240 7,084 3.5 11,901,120.00 9 Hostel 1 120.00 2 240 7,084 3.5 11,901,120.00 Establishment of hydromet 10 1 Lumpsum 10,000,000.00 garden 11 Compound fencing 1 Lumpsum 5,000,000.00 External water supply and 12 1 Lumpsum 5,000,000.00 storage tank Site development and 13 1 Lumpsum 10,000,000.00 parking Construction of approach 14 1 Lumpsum 84,607,900.00 road 15 Solar field 20 KVA 1 Lumpsum 13,680,128.00 SUB TOTAL (A) 213,239,759.79 Occupational health and 16 2.78% of above sum on (A) 5,928,065.32 safety (OHS) cost Cost of Environmental 17 5% Pre, during and operational phase on (A) 10,661,987.99 Management Plan GRAND TOTAL (BTN) 229,829,813.10 Equivalent in US$ million US$2.8m Exchange rate used as of December 20, 2022: US$1 = BTN 84 Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 84 Annex III: Indicative Costs of the Proposed Short-Term Modernization ANNEX III Indicative Costs of the Proposed Short-Term Modernization Activity Quantity Unit Total Annual Total Total O&M purchase/ purchase/ O&M cost annual cost over upgrade upgrade per site37 O&M cost 3 years38 cost (US$) cost (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) Construction of NCHM campus and n.a. n.a. 2.800,000 scientific facilities Observations 1. Upgrading critical observing stations with 50 5000 250,000 500 25,000 75,000 satellite telemetry 2. Establishing new synoptic stations 5 100,000 500,000 4,00039 20,000 60,000 (including civil works and provision of services) 3. Upper air station 1 750,000 750,000 140,00040 140,000 420,000 4. Developing new GLOF warning systems for 3 1,200,000 3,600,000 120,000 360,000 1,080,000 3 basins 5. Developing new cryosphere stations 5 100,000 500,000 5,000 25,000 75,000 6. ADCP 2 35,000 70,000 3,500 7,000 21,000 7. Automatic water quality equipment 6 6000 36,000 600 3,600 10,800 8. Automatic sediment monitoring sites 5 20,000 100,000 2,000 10,000 30,000 9. Mobile spectrofluorometer instruments 2 5,000 10,000 1,000 2,000 6,000 for discharge measurement in highly turbulent mountain streams and rivers and corresponding robust laptop for direct field data evaluation Total costs of observation infrastructure Capital (US$5,816,000) + 3-year O&M (US$1,777,800) = US$7,593,800 including specialized training ICT 1. IFMSS 1 200,000 200,000 30,000 30,000 90,000 2. Training costs 100,000 3. Data archive 1 210,000 210,000 25,000 25,000 75,000 4. Training costs over 5 years 60,000 5. Workstations and PCs (including for 1 lot 300,000 300,000 30,000 30,000 90,000 cryosphere) 6. Servers 5 10,000 50,000 1000 5,000 15,000 7. Remote sensing and GIS software for 1 45,000 45,000 Cryosphere 8. General GIS software license 1 4,000 4,000 12,00041 37 All O&M costs are exclusive of labor costs. 38 Assuming that spare parts and maintenance will be provided by suppliers for one full year following the start of operation of all equipment and taking into account that procurement and installation of equipment will take approximately one year, the indicated O&M budget will cover three full years of operations. 39 O&M costs for high-altitude observing stations and cryosphere observations could be high. Current costs for glacier monitoring expeditions would be a reasonable guide. 40 The O&M costs refer to cost of balloons, sondes, tether, parachute, and gas. Based on the global basic observation network (GBON) requirements, two manual launches per day are assumed (total 730 per year), with 100 percent performance (uptime) and a cost of US$190 per launch. 41 This figure assumes that the license has to be renewed every year. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 85 Annex III: Indicative Costs of the Proposed Short-Term Modernization (cont.) Unit Total Annual Total Total O&M purchase/ purchase/ O&M cost annual cost over upgrade upgrade per site O&M cost 3 years Activity Quantity cost (US$) cost (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) 9. Acquisition of software and adaptation of 1 100,000 existing software42 Total costs of ICT including specialized Capital (US$909,000) + training (US$160,000) + 3-year O&M training (US$282,000) = US$1,351,000 Modelling and forecasting 1. Developing probabilistic forecasting, 1 700,000 impact-based forecasting (with disaster risk management), nowcasting, and sectoral based forecasting 2. Monthly and seasonal forecasting and climate projection and downscaling 3. Hydrological modelling and forecasting 4. Dynamic riverbed modelling 5. Glacial melt modelling 6. Visualization system including hardware 1 300,000 300,000 30,000 30,000 90,000 and software and software maintenance of support and license fee per year 7. Training costs spread over 5 years 100,000 Total cost of modelling and forecasting Capital cost (US$1,000,000) + training (US$100,000) + 3-year O&M including specialized training (US$90,000) = US$1,190,000 Training Capacity-building and training program (on- 5 200,000 1,000,000 the-job training, training at RTCs and other institutions) on various targeted areas listed above (Section 5.1.5) Total cost of training US$1,000,000 (over 5 years) Service Delivery 1. Establishing/improving user feedback 50,000 including developing SOPs 2. Building media profile and brand 1 100,000 3. Developing mobile application for delivery 1 150,000 of products 4. Communication training for NCHM 1 100,000 forecasters and other key staff 5. ISO 2001: 2015 certification for aviation 1 300,00043 4,000 12,00044 6. Developing QMS for the entire NCHM 1 200,000 45 1,000 5,000 7. Initiating the use of CAP 1 50,000 42 This figure can vary from minimal cost for stand-alone shareware software packages (such as shareware hydrology, meteorology software packages) to several hundred thousand dollars for integrated IT systems including the database system, depending on what IT requires. That must be established in a separate IT design concept. The proposed figure is an approximation. 43 This figure is an approximate estimate since the majority of the cost is that of the full-time staff assigned to the task and the cost of consultant to be engaged to initiate the process. 44 ISO accreditation is normally on a three-year cycle and costs approximately US$12,000 per cycle. 45 As for aviation, the majority of the cost is that of the full-time staff assigned to the task and the cost of consultant to be engaged to initiate the process. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 86 Annex III: Indicative Costs of the Proposed Short-Term Modernization Annex III: Indicative Costs of the Proposed Short-Term Modernization (cont.) Unit Total Annual Total Total O&M purchase/ purchase/ O&M cost annual cost over upgrade upgrade per site O&M cost 3 years Activity Quantity cost (US$) cost (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) 8. Establishing cell phone broadcast services NCHM to get an approximate quote from a local telecom for warnings provider Total cost of capacity building for Capital cost (US$950,000) + recurring cost (US$17,000) = US$967,000 improved service delivery Overall costs for short-term modernization Total capital cost of the new NCHM center US$2,800,000 Total capital costs of equipment and facilities including specialized training US$8,935,000 Total costs of training US$1,000,000 Annual O&M costs US$717,600 Total O&M costs (3 years @ US$717,600/annum) US$2,166,800 Total cost of implementing US$8,935,000 + US$1,000,000 + US$2,166,800 + US$2,800,000 = US$14,901,800 Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 87 ANNEX IV Timeline of Activities for Short-Term Modernization (2024-2029) SI Activities Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Infrastrucutre 2 Calibration laboratory, sediment and water qyality laboratory 3 Store snd equipment mainetnance workshop 4 Establishment of aviation offices at domestic and international airports 5 Establishment of hydromet information center and climate lab 6 Acquiring vehicles for station maintenance Information Technology (ICT) 1 Establishing an Integrated File and Message Switching System (IFMSS) 2 Acquisition of software and adaptation of existimng software 3 Establishing a Data Archive System 4 Acquiring sufficient numbers of servers, workstations, and PCs 5 Developing a Data Management System 6 Acquiring access to and use of GIS tools for various purposes 7 Remote sensing GIS software and analysis tools for snow melt modelling (specific to cryosphere modelling) 8 Development of intensity duration frequency curves using precipitation data 9 Developing mobile apps for transmitting data from manual observation sites 10 Enhancement of ICT systems for Centralized Data Management System 11 Installation of high performing computing system for modelling and forecasting 12 Upgradation of existing networking components 13 Acquiring power back up systems, such as UPS and generators 14 Upgradation of firewall and security systems 15 Replacement of existing old servers Observation Networks A Climate and weather observation network 1 An upgrade of the existing observation network; installation of 1 upper air station and 5 new synoptic stations 2 Upgradation and standardization of existing 20 Agrometeorological stations (Class A stations) B Aviation observation network 1 Upgradation of AWOS at domestic airports 2 Installation of AWOS at international airports 3 Integration of AWOS with Centralised Database Management System C Cryosphere monitoring network 1 3AWS (or appropriate technology) with capabilitie of observing snow water equivalent/snow depth and set up at least one glacier runoff odel in a sub basin 2 Establishing 5 new cryosphere stations Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 88 Annex IV: Timeline of Activities for Short-Term Modernization (2024-2029) Annex IV: Timeline of Activities for Short-Term Modernization (2024-2029) (cont.) SI Activities Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Observation Networks (cont) C Cryosphere monitoring network (cont.) 3 Developing systematic observation of volime changes of selected glacier lakes including bathymetric surveys D Hydrological monitoring network 1 Upgrading from existing GPRS/GSM to satellite-based telemetry for critical AWLS and AWS sites and FWS 2 Introduction of 6 handheld automatic water quality monitoring units for ambient water quality monitoring 3 Installation o 5 real time sediment monitoring systems upstream of major hydropower stations 4 2 ADCP for regulart discharge management and updating of rating curves 5 2 mobile spectrofluorometer instruments for discharge measurement using fluorescent tracers (Uranin) in highly turbulent mountain streams and rivers 6 Expansion of the GLOF early warning system for basins as per requirement 7 Enhancement of existing GLOF and early warning monitoring network E Callibration of hydrometequipment 1 Installation of 1 humidity sensor calibrator, 1 rain gauge calibrator, 1 solar radiation calibrator, sunshine recorder calibrator 2 Installation of 1 current meter calibrator and water level sensor claibrator 3 Development of user manuals, check lists and guidelines for data collection, quality management, maintenance and forecasting Modelling and Forecasting Investment A Weather and climate forecasting 1 Further accessing and using other regional and global models; introducing data assimilation, post-processing and calibration of these models 2 Introducing EPS and probabilistic forecasting 3 Introducing impact-based forecasting 4 Developing nowcasting systems 5 Operationalize medium range forecasting (7–10 DAYS) 6 Initiating long range climate forecasting (monthly, seasonal) 7 Climate projection and downscaling 8 Development of Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAF) and Severe Weather Forecasts (SIGMET) for Aviation 9 Initiation of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) verification system (WRF) 10 Operationaliztion of common operating platform (COP-SMART MET) 11 Parameterization of NWP (WRF) B Hydrological and flood forecasting 1 Developing grid-based forecasting tools for hydrology 2 Acquiring a forecast visualisations systems (or upgrade the existing system) 3 Developing secotral based forecasts Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 89 Annex IV: Timeline of Activities for Short-Term Modernization (2024-2029) (cont.) SI Activities Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Modelling and forecasting investment (cont.) B Hydrological and flood forecasting (cont.) 4 Enhancing hydrological models for hydrological forecasting 5 Initiating hydrological and weather forecast verification 6 Dynamic riverbed modelling (incorporation of sediment transport) 7 Expansion of flood forecasting and early warning system to other basins (WIMES) C Snow and glacier modelling 1 Modelling snow and glacier melt water 2 Developing enhanced and quality-contolled data sets on snow and glacier melt and initial modelling of seasonal snow and glacier melt 3 Glacier mass balance modelling 4 Glacier lake breach modelling Services Delivery Investment 1 Establishing/improving user-oriented culture including introduction of user feedback systems 2 Developing/strengthening Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) and guidelines for service delivery 3 Enhancing the website of NCHM 4 Enhancing weather services provided on social media 5 Enhancing forecast accuracy for 3 days forecast to more than 65% 6 Developing/deepening links with broadcast media 7 Developing mobile application for the delivery of products 8 Initiating the use of CAP for warnings 9 Initiating SMS based warnings in collaboration with telecom service provider 10 Establishing cell phone broadcast services for warnings in collaboration with telecom provider 11 Establishing Glcier Lake Outburst warning service including assessments of glacier lake dam stability 12 Further development of GIS based inventory and time/spatial development of hazardous glacier lake in Bhutan 13 Field surveys to monitor hazardous glacier lakes, including arial visualisation and terrestrial observations 14 Developing Grid-based precipitation and temperature forecast maps 15 Acquiring ISO certification for aviation 16 Developing and implementation of QMS for Aviation Meteorology 17 Developing manuals for observation methods, instrumentation including their calibration and maintenance 18 Develop standards for observation, data collection, monitoring, data management and forecasting 19 Development of National Framework for Climate Services (NFCS) 20 Enhancement of Agrometeorological Services 21 Development of drought monitoring prortal 22 Development of climate information systems 23 Enhancement of remote data collection using mobile apps Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 90 Annex IV: Timeline of Activities for Short-Term Modernization (2024-2029) Annex IV: Timeline of Activities for Short-Term Modernization (2024-2029) (cont.) SI Activities Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Capacity Building Investment 1 Traning in managing and maintaining the rehabilitated and expanded observation networks, including refresher courses for the site observers 2 Traning in instrument calibartion 3 Traning in basic weather forecasting on all time scales 4 Traning in impact-based forecasting 5 Traning in nowcasting 6 Traning in aviation forecating 7 Traning in agromet advisory preparation 8 Traning in GIS and remote sensing application 9 Traning in climate downscaling and projection 10 Traning in database management system 11 Advanced training in numerical weather prediction 12 Training in application of GIS tools 13 Training in systems adminitration and networking 14 Training in QMS 15 Introductory course on cryosphere physics (snow and glaciers) and cryosphere, meteorology and hydrology 16 Training in instruments and methods of cryosphere observations 17 Training in use of satellite observations in crysophere environments 18 Training in theory and practice of fluorescent tracer hydrological observations in cryosphere environments (rivers and glaciers) 19 Training in physics and processes of the formation and development of avalanches 20 Training in theory and practice of elementary snow and glacier hydrological modelling 21 Training in hydrological modelling and flood forecasting 22 Training in tracer hydrology to introduce tracer hydrological methods especially discharge measurements in mountain streams 23 Training in the river water quality monitoring 24 Training in snow and glacier hydrology, melt modelling and snow cover mapping 25 Training in preparing O&M strategy and annual plans 26 Development of training modules for refresher courses, basic hydromet courses 27 Development of competency framework for hydromet technicians and forecasters Research and Development 1 Enhancement of Hydromet Journal 2 Development of research guidelines 3 Conduct/organize national, regional and international seminars/ conferences 4 Conduct research to enhance hydrological modelling capabilities, incorporating advanced techniques and data simulation methods for improved accuracy in river flow simulations 5 Conduct research to assess the impact of climate change on hydrological patterns, exploring potential shifts in precipitation, temperature, and extreme weather events Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 91 Annex IV: Timeline of Activities for Short-Term Modernization (2024-2029) (cont.) SI Activities Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Research and Development (cont.) 6 Investigate and implement advanced data assimilation methods for integrating real-time observational data into hydrological and meteorological models, enhancing prediction accuracy 7 Establish ongoing capacity-building programs to ensure staff proficiency in the latest methodologies, modelling techniques, and technological advancements in both hydrology and meteorology 8 Conduct research on glacier and mass balance, retreat patterns 9 Investigating the incresead risk of GLOF and availability of water resources from melt contibution Human Resource requirements to support short-term modernization 1 Five extra technicians trained in instrument use, maintenance and calibration, to support the expansion of the meteorological and hydrological observing network 2 Two extra meteorological technicians to support the upper-air station (assuming that this is an auto-launcher and is located at an existing NCHM site 3 Six new Met/Hydro officers for the operational weather forecast office (to bring the complement of fully trained forecasters in this office up to eight). The existing technical staff working in wheather forecasting can either be trained up to full meteorologist level or be re-deployed 4 New Met/Hydro officers for the aviation forecast office (to bring the complement of fully trend forecasters in this office up to six) 5 Two new instrumentation engineers to support calibration and instrumentation 6 One new Met/Hydro technician for the operational flood forecast and warning office (to bring the complement in this office to six) 7 Six new ICT-trained technicians to provide 24/7 oversight of the operational ICT systems 8 Three new specialists in NWP modelling, to lead the exploitation and adaptation of global models to Bhutan and to engage with the regional modelling groups in the development and use of high resolution modelling capability 9 Two new specialists in climate modelling and downscaling 10 Two new specialists and cryosphere modelling 11 Three new specialists in hydrological modelling and verification 12 One new specialist in the exploitation of satellite data 13 Two new specialists in “Meteorological ICT” to oversee the establishment and maintenance of the IFMSS, Data Archive, Data Management Systems, etc. 14 Two new specialists in Webb/communications/broadcasting to enhance the delivery of weather products and services online and to build stronger links with the TV and radio broadcasters of Bhutan 15 Two new specialists to work in the developing and delivering tailored services to important user communities such as disaster management, agriculture, hydropower, etc. 16 One new QMS specialist to develop quality management system for in NCHM, oversee its implementation and develop and maintain the necessary documentation and records 17 One new training officer who would work with staff to develop individual training plans, and who would match training needs with training opportunities to ensure that all NCHM staff remain up-to-date with their knowledge and expertise Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 92 Annex V: Indicative Costs of the Proposed Medium-Term Modernization ANNEX V Indicative Costs of the Proposed Medium-Term Modernization Annual Total Unit Total O&M cost annual Total O&M purchase purchase per site O&M cost cost for 8 Activity Quantity cost (US$) cost (US$) (US$)46 (US$) years47 (US$) Observations 1. Synoptic stations (additional to 10 100,000 1,000,000 4,000 40,000 320,000 current, including civil works and support such as power supply) 2. AWSs (including civil works and 10 75,000 750,000 4,000 40,000 320,000 support such as power supply) 3. Two Doppler weather radars (one for 2 3,000,000 6,000,000 50,000 100,000 800,000 eastern Bhutan) including civil works and infrastructure (tower, generator, UPS, and so on) 4. Upper air station including civil works 2 500,000 1,000,000 124,100 248,20048 2,233,80049 5. ADCP 2 35,000 70,000 3,500 7,000 56,000 6. Permafrost monitoring stations 2 100,000 200,000 5,00050 10,000 100,000 7. Vehicles for field visits, tools to 5 20,000 100,000 2,000 10,000 80,000 support field operations, maintenance and inspections, spare parts, consumables, fuel Total costs of observation infrastructure Capital (US$9,120,000) + 8-year O&M (US$3,909,800) = US$13,029,800 including specialized training Modelling and forecasting 1. Continuous improvement of the weather forecasting processes, including mainstreaming of data assimilation, model post-processing, and calibration in the forecasting process 2. Producing routine nowcasts and probabilistic forecasts as the basis of impact-based forecasting (including software as required) 1,000,000 3. Continuous improvement of hydrological and cryosphere modelling and flood forecasting capabilities 4. Enhancing climate forecasting capabilities (monthly, seasonal) 5. Routine hydrological and weather forecast verification 6. Reanalysis of the Bhutan climate using a limited-area model Total cost of modelling and forecasting Capital cost (US$1,000,000) 46 All O&M costs are exclusive of labor costs. 47 Assuming that spare parts and maintenance will be provided by suppliers for one full year following the start of operation of all equipment, and taking into account that procurement and installation of equipment will take approximately one year, the indicated O&M budget will cover eight full years of operations. It is recognized that this timescale extends beyond the 5-10 year time frame of the medium-term modernization, but it is important to reflect it full here as it will eventually fall back on the recipient institution and thus it needs to be emphasized. 48 The O&M cost refers to cost of balloons, sondes, tether, parachute, and gas. Based on the GBON requirements, two manual launches per day are assumed (total 730 per year), with 100 percent performance (uptime) and a cost of US$170 per launch. 49 The O&M costs for upper air station is calculated for nine years, assuming that procurement and installation of equipment and civil works will take approximately one year. 50 Annual visits will be expensive given the terrain. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 93 Annex V: Indicative Costs of the Proposed Medium-Term Modernization Annual Total Unit Total O&M cost annual Total O&M purchase purchase per site O&M cost cost for 8 Activity Quantity cost (US$) cost (US$) (US$) (US$) years (US$) ICT (an integrated ICT system) 1. Forecaster visualization system 1 300,000 300,000 30,000 30,000 240,000 2. Climate database management system 1 750,000 750,000 75,000 75,000 600,000 3. A ‘one-stop’ users’ portal services 1 150,000 150,000 15,000 15,000 120,000 4. Workstations and PCs 1 lot 8,000 + 140,000 14,000 14,000 112,000 (10+30) 2,000 5. Backup server for all data 1 20,000 20,000 2,000 2,000 16,000 6. Backup on cloud (subscription) 1 5,000 50,00051 7. HPC for downscaling and other post- 1 1,000,000 1,000,000 50,000 50,000 400,000 processing as well as possibly running climate models Total cost of ICT Capital cost (US$2,360,000) + 8-year O&M (US$1,538,000) = US$3,898,000 Services delivery 1. Services for a wide user cross- 1 300,000 section with enhanced dissemination mechanisms, including establishing regular avalanche risk and warning services in selected areas 2. Codeveloping integrated services with 1 400,000 DLGDM and other sectors (for example, agriculture, health) 3. Outreach and training support for main 1 200,000 stakeholders (for example, hydrology, DLGDM, agriculture) 4. Revising and updating SOPs for issuing 1 50,000 warnings and other operational products 5. Maintaining the ISO 2001: 2015 (or 1 4,000 40,00052 upgrading) certification for aviation 6. Completing and maintaining QMS for 1 1,000 10,000 the entire NCHM Total cost of service delivery Capital cost (US$950,000) + recurring cost (US$50,000) = US$1,000,000 Training On-the-job training, training at NCHM 5 years 200,000 1,000,000 HQ new training facilities, RTCs, and other worth of institutions, fellowships, attachments, training higher degrees spread over 10 years Total cost of training Capital cost (US$1,000,000) 51 Subscription is for the entire 10 years. 52 ISO accreditation is normally on a three-year cycle and costs approximately US$36,000 per cycle. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 94 Annex V: Indicative Costs of the Proposed Medium-Term Modernization Annex V: Indicative Costs of the Proposed Medium-Term Modernization Total Annual Total O&M Unit Total O&M cost annual cost for purchase purchase per site O&M cost 8 years Activity Quantity cost (US$) cost (US$) (US$) (US$) (US$) Overall costs for medium-term modernization Total capital costs of equipment and US$13,430,000 facilities Total capacity-building costs for 5 years US$1,000,000 (spread over 10 years) Total annual O&M costs US$651,200 Total O&M over 10 years US$5,497,800 Total cost of implementing over 10 years US$13,430,000 + US$1,000,000 + US$5,497,800 = US$19,927,800 Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 95 ANNEX VI Timeline of Activities for Medium-Term Modernization (2029-2034) SI Activities Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Observation Networks Investment A Climate and weather observation network 1 Additional expansion of the observation network to install 10 Synoptic stations, 10 AWS, 2 Doppler Weather Radar, 2 upper air stations B Hydrological monitoring network 1 Procurement of two additional ADCP for discharge measurement and updating rating curves 2 Enhancement of existing EWS and installation in other risk prone river basins Modelling and Forecasting Investment A Weather and climate forecasting 1 Mainstreaming data assimilation, model post-processing and calibration in the forecasting process 2 Routine production of probabilistic forecasts as the basis for impact-based forecasting, and now-casts Re-analysis of the Bhutan climate (e.g., 30 years) using a limited-area model 3 Operationalization of long range prediction system (climate forecasts, monthly, seasonal) 4 Provision of forecasts for wind, heatwave, and droughts B Hydrological and flood forecasting 1 Improving modelling and forecasting capabilities for medium- and long-term stream flow forecasts 2 Enhancing hydrological and cryosphere models and flood forecasting 3 Establishing regular avalanche risk and warning services in selected areas 4 Routine hydrological and weather forecast verification ICT Investment 1 Developing a fully integrated ICT system by establishing Forecast Visualization System 2 Enhancement of Climate Database Management System 3 A “one-stop” users’ portal 4 Sufficient numbers of servers, workstations, and PCs 5 Software licenses 6 Back-up server in situ and in cloud 7 Installation of high performing computers and workstations Services Delivery Investments 1 Services for a wide cross section of user sectors with enhanced dissemination mechanisms 2 Co-developing Impact-based Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems (MHEWS), developing other integrated services, for example in agriculture and health sectors 3 Outreach and training support for main stakeholders in, for example, hydrology, DLGDM, and agriculture Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 96 Annex VI: Indicative Costs of the Proposed Medium-Term Modernization Annex VI: Timeline of Activities for Medium-Term Modernization (2029-2034) SI Activities Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Services Delivery Investments (cont.) 4 Establishment of an avalanche warning and prediction service for the general public and specific users (e.g., roads department, tourism services, hydro power companies) 5 Revising and updating SOPs to codify alerts, warnings, and other operational products 6 Maintaining ISO 2001:2015 certificate for aviation 7 Completion of and maintaining QMS for entire NCHM 8 Establishment of regular assessment of seasonal changes and mid-, long-term trends in water resources availability from snow and glacier regions for the scientific community and water resources management including hydro power generation potential 9 Making available mass-balance changes and trends of selected glaciers 10 Implementation of Quality management System for entire NCHM Research and development 1 Undertake research on urban hydrology to understand the impact of urbanization on local hydrological cycles, storm water management, and flood risk in urban areas 2 Explore the use of remote sensing technologies to monitor land cover changes, snow melt patterns, and soil moisture, contributing to more comprehensive hydrological assessments 3 Initiate community-based hydrological monitoring programs, involving local communities in data collection to enhance understanding of regional hydrological dynamics 4 Invest in the development of probabilistic forecasting tools for both hydrology and meteorology, providing decision-makers with a range of possible scenarios and associated uncertainties 5 Conduct research on flash flood prediction, focusing on developing accurate and timely forecasting models that consider local topography, rainfall patterns and soil conditions 6 Establish ongoing capacity-building programs to ensure staff proficiency in the latest research methodologies, modelling techniques, and technological advancements in both hydrology and meteorology Human resources requirements to support medium-term modernization 1 Four extra technicians trained in instrument use, maintenance and calibration, to support the expansion of the meteorological and hydrological observing network 2 Two extra meteorological technicians to support the additional Upper-Air stations (assuming that this is an auto-launcher and is located at an existing NCHM site) 3 Four additional specialists to support, maintain, operate, and exploit the proposed weather radar network (two engineers, two meteorologists) 4 Four additional hydrology technicians to help operate the new ADCP equipment and expand the collection of rating curves, etc. 5 One specialist to manage, maintain, and oversee the proposed permafrost monitoring station Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 97 Annex VI: Timeline of Activities for Medium-Term Modernization (2029-2034) SI Activities Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Human resources requirements to support medium-term modernization (cont.) 6 Two extra specialists in meteorological NWP to further improve exploitation of global weather models, to deepen engagement with regional modelling initiatives, and to conduct a 30-year reanalysis of the climate of Bhutan as a proxy for a detailed climate record 7 Two extra hydrological modelers to enhance flood forecasting 8 One additional cryosphere modeler to help develop avalanche risk and warning services 9 One additional climate modeler to improve seasonal and climate- range forecasting 10 Two extra specialist in meteorological ICT systems, one each to manage and support the Forecaster Visualization System and the Climate Database Management System 11 One extra meteorologist or hydrologist focused on Service Delivery, to broaden and deepen the engagement of NCHM with user communities 12 One extra training and development officer, to focus on training, education and outreach programs for users and for the public Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank 98 Annex VII: Summary of Staffing Requirements for Modernization ANNEX VII Summary of Staffing Requirements for Modernization For Bhutan, the following staff53 complements are aviation forecast desk on a 24/7 basis. If general proposed for the operational positions: forecasting and aviation forecasting are located in one office, it may be possible to effect some ■ ICT. For one person to be continuously avail- saving of staff numbers across both disciplines, able on a 24/7 basis, six qualified and trained for example, by having one forecaster (typically ICT technicians are required. on night shift) keeping the aviation TAFs and warnings under review while primarily focused ■ General forecasting. A typical arrangement on PWS. for staffing a general forecasting position is to have 24/7 cover, augmented by an additional ■ Hydrology forecast and warning services. It is eight-hour shift each day, to help deal with the vital that a 24/7 watch is maintained for flash greater demand for forecast services during the flood risks caused by GLOFs and similar events. daylight hours. Thus, the staff complement Therefore, six qualified and trained hydrology should be eight forecasters: six to provide for officers are required to provide this uninter- the 24/7 cover plus an additional two to allow rupted service. eight extra rostered hours per day (although in These estimates of the staffing requirements for practice all eight would work on an agreed 24/7 24/7 services underlie the detailed staff number roster sequence, sharing the night shifts and so recommendations in this annex. While these on equally between them). staffing requirements may seem ambitious, ■ Aviation forecasting. For full adherence to many of them may be achievable through the ICAO regulations, there should be an aviation training and redeployment of existing staff. For forecaster on duty at all times, to issue and example, the proposal to provide 24/7 staffing keep under review TAFs, warnings, and so on of the general forecast office by fully qualified a continuous basis. This means that a comple- meteorologists would free up the technical staff ment of six forecasters is needed to cover the currently undertaking forecast duties to be retrained or redeployed into other roles. In overall 53 Typically, a public servant will work about 200 days per year, at an average of 7.2 working hours per day or a total of 1,440 terms, the staff numbers in the NCHM may not working hours per year. Dividing 1,440 by 365 gives a figure increase much, but there is a significant need for just less than 4 hours per day, which is effectively the average number of rostered hours per day that one person can deliver more highly skilled staff, particularly for specialist when working on a seven-day roster. A roster requiring 24/7 coverage therefore needs six persons to provide complete cover staff in areas such as NWP modelling, satellite (noting that this does not include provision for long periods of meteorology, ICT (particularly meteorological ICT absence due to maternity leave, study leave, and so on). This is known as the staffing factor. systems), communications, and service delivery. Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank Institutional Strengthening and Modernization of Hydromet and Multi-hazard Early Warning Services in Bhutan A Road Map for 2024–2034 99 Short term Medium term Work area/activity Prof. Tech. Prof. Tech. Observations Use, maintenance, and calibration of instruments 5 4 Upper air station 1 2 Weather radar network 4 Hydrology observations 4 Permafrost station 1 24/7 operations Operational forecasting 6 Aviation forecasting 5 Hydrological forecast and warnings 1 Operational ICT management 6 Modelling and forecasting NWP modelling 3 2 Climate modelling and downscaling 2 1 Cryosphere modelling 2 1 Hydrological modelling and verification 3 2 Use and exploitation of satellite data 1 ICT systems Meteorological ICT systems 2 2 Service delivery Web/communications/broadcasting 2 1 Development of tailored service delivery 2 1 QMS specialist 1 Capacity development Training officer 1 1 Total 30 13 15 11 Prepared in collaboration between the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology and the World Bank